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INTERRELATIONS BETWEEN FAMILY BEHAVIOR AND WOMEN SITUATION ON LABOR

MARKET, IN ROMANIA AND OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES - AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH
1

SIMONA GHITA - CRISTINA BOBOC 2 - VERGIL VOINEAGU 3

Abstract
The authors perform a comparative analysis of the family type, structure and behavior in Romania and in other European countries,
as well as their structural changes and dynamics. The way in which the family behavior depends on some of the social and economic
policies is quantified using a multiple regression model on cross-sectional data (dependent variable: fertility rate; independent
variables: women's wages as percentage of men's wages, employment rate for women and the usage of contraceptive methods). The
model tested significant and it prooves that the fertility rate significantly depends on the first two explanatory variables for 30
European countries.
JEL codes: J12, J14, J16, C31.
Key Words: family policy, fertility rate, multiple regression model.

Family concept in European countries. Literature review

The familiy-policies and the welfare families issues were a major concern at the beginning of the XX th century. A lot of important
researchers in history, demography, sociology, politics and philosophy debated these problems in the course of the XX th century in
European societies (Seccombe, 1993; Fox Harding, 1996).
In Western Europe, the researchers agreed that the traditional or conventional family-values that once have existed are not valid
any more, as the family-structure and behavior went through a lot of changes since then. As the families are trying to face the
pressure and the difficulties of the new economic and social life, the family-forms evolve according to the socio-demographic
changes and reconfigure themselves, diversifying the family living arrangements.
The relationship between the public policy and family life is complex, due to the numerous ways in which different policy actors
states their family-strategies. Despite all these different interpretations, the basic idea is that families do not form and develop
isolated one from another, but within a wider social, economic, cultural and political environment, where policies are formulated and
implemented.
Over the last 20 years total fertility has fallen below replacement level in almost all European countries. The persistently low
fertility in Europe has incited public and political interest in policies that could maintain or increase fertility levels. If empirical
research has been accumulated globally and on different regions of Western Europe on this issue, only limited studies exist for
Central and East European Countries

Characteristics and changes of Romanian family revealed through statistical indicators

The Romanian family has emerged as an institution with high stability, based on the principles of synchronicity and the
complementary natures of gender roles. The political, social, and economic setting has significantly influenced the structure and the
functions of the family system.
The totalitarian society imposed outside pressure on the family, making its space very constrained (Mitrea 1993). Both spouses
had to work full-time since this was the most acceptable family model. Family planning was strongly restricted, couples being
encouraged to have as many children as possible.
Since December 1989, when the dictatorial regime of Ceausescu was overthrown, Romania moved from a communist regime to
a democratic political system, from a state-planned to a market economy, and from a state-governed and controlled family life to
independently functioning family systems. The transformation into a democratic society and a market economy was not smooth. The
breakdown of the economic and social infrastructure resulted in workers unemployment, underemployment, and job insecurity, all of
which being translated into economic difficulties for many families and communities. Thus, between 1991 and 2006 an average of 70
percent of Romanians estimated their income as barely sufficient or insufficient to cover basic necessities. Household composition is
an important indicator correlating with poverty. For example, households with five family members face an over 50 percent chance
of being poor (Tesliuc, Pop 2001), and each new born child increases the poverty risk by almost 50 percent (Research Institute for
Quality of Life 2001). Poverty rate varies by region as well: in 1998, the poverty rate in rural areas was 50 percent higher than in
urban areas (Research Institute for Quality of Life 1998).
Some of these pressures disappeared after 1989 with the transformation of many aspects of life in Romania. The state is no longer
directly involved in family life. Contemporary family members have more choices in terms of individual interests. The family can
adjust its own internal life and functions. For example, family planning has become easier and more accessible, allowing people to
have more control over their lives. When family self-determination increased through modernization, however, the individual's
environment became less secure. Increased liberty is paid with a growing feeling of insecurity and greater adaptation efforts to
unknown social dynamics (Mitrea 1993). Employment of both spouses remains predominant after 1989, mostly because a few
families can get by on a single income.

Professor, Ph.D., Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, e-mail address: simo_ghita@yahoo.com.

Associate Professor, Ph.D., Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies.
3
Professor, Ph.D., Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies.
2

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Changes in the family structure itself have also occurred. Urbanization is responsible for the transition from an extended,
multigenerational family pattern to a nuclear one (parents and their children), which maintains significantly strong relationships with
the origin-family. In 2007, the urban population was 55,2 percent, reflecting a trend of migration towards the cities (from 18 percent
in 1912) (National Institute of Statistics 2007). Family solidarity plays an important role in family life; the family term includes
parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins, and godparents. A study on OECD countries shows that at mid 2000s 57,6% of families
were couples, 27,7% were single persons households (on average, at OECD countries level). In Romania the share of couples
families was above the OECD average level (62,8%), while almost 20% of the households were single persons households. We
should remark that the share of single parent household in Romania is above the OECD average level (9,3%, compared to 9,1%).
Graph 1: Types of households in Romania, mid 2000s

Source: www.oecd.org/els/social/family/database.

The same study on OECD countries shows that couple families (with or without children) are the most frequent type of household
in all OECD countries. Their proportion varies considerably across the different countries, from about 50% of all households in
Denmark, Finland and Slovakia to almost 70% in Portugal, where this proportion is clearly higher than the OECD average (58%).
The proportion of single-person households is influenced by both the propensity of young adults to leave the parental home and
the tendency of elderly to live in with their children or enter a house for the elderly (or other institution). Single-person households
constitute at least 35% of households in Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway and Switzerland. By contrast, this proportion is less
than 20% in Greece, Portugal or Slovenia. At about 10% of all households, sole-parent families constitute a significant minority of
households, with certain variability across countries (from 5,1% in Denmark to 20,3% in Latvia).
Most Romanian families are traditional, married couples with children. In 2008, the marriage rate was 6,95 marriages per 1000
inhabitants, one of the lowest levels since the 1950s, but still relatively high among the European countries (National Institute of
Statistics 2007; UNDP Romania 2005). The average age at marriage was relatively young in 199828,4 years for men and 24,9
years for women (National Institute of Statistics 1999), but it is continuously growing since then. The proportion of first marriages
was over 80 percent, and, on average, marriages lasted twenty-two years, indicating a high level of family stability (UNPD 1996).
The divorce rate remained relatively steadyaround 1,7 divorces per 1000 inhabitants 2008 (in the European context, this level is
below average) (National Institute of Statistics 2001).
The results of the study on OECD countries which we mentioned before revealed that on average, families with children
account for nearly half of all households. This proportion is somewhat lower in Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands,
Switzerland, where childless households represent around two thirds of all households. Most couple families include children (72,4%
in Poland, 70% in Ireland, 69% in Spain, which means that more than two thirds of couple families include children). Childless
couples are most frequent in Denmark and Germany. Sole-parent families account for about one fifth of all households with children
on average in the OECD, but the share is even higher in the United Kingdom (26,4%)
Graph 2: Share of couples with children in all couples families in European countries, 2005

Source: www.oecd.org/els/social/family/database.

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Graph 3: Share of sole parent families in all households with children, 2005

Source: www.oecd.org/els/social/family/database.

The number of children per family depended on educational background and region. People with higher educational levels and
those living in the cities tended to have fewer children (Ilut 1995; UNDP 2000). Most of the families in the cities had one or two
children. In 2008 in Romania the total fertility rate per woman was 1.35 (EUROSTAT, 2009). At OECD level, in mid 2000s 56% of
households had no children, 20% of them had one child, while 17% - had two children. In Romania only 44% of the households
had no children, but the share of families with one child was significantly higher (almost 30%).
Between 2000 and 2008 the proportion of young population (under 15 years) decreased, on average, by 2,8%, while the
proportion of older people (over 65 years old) raised by 1,2%. The ageing process is still developing, according to the ultimate
EUROSTAT projections, the share of elderly people in Romania will grow from 14,5% in 2004 to 22% in 2025 and near 30% in
2050. In the last period, the share of children born outside the marriages were growing, too (in 2006 it was about 29%, compared to
15% in 1992 and 25,5% in 2000). Most couples decide to have only one or at most two born children. The fertility rate recorded a
major decrease, after 1990. The 1,35 children born, on average, by a Romanian woman are far beyond the simple-replacement-level
of the generations (which is, on average, 2,1 children per a woman). In 90s the number of abortions exploded, exceeding, at the
beginning of 2000s, the number of born children. Starting with 2002, the abortion-rate decreased, so that in 2006 it reached a level
equal to the 735 per 1000 born children.
Graph 4: Marriage rate, Romania and EU-27, 1997-2008

Source: EUROSTAT Population and Social Conditions database.

Graph 5: Divorce rate, Romania and EU-27, 1997-2008

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Source: EUROSTAT Population and Social Conditions database.

In Romania the fertility rate had a decreasing trend between 1995 and 2002 (from 1,41 children in 1995 to 1,26 children in 2002).
Starting with 2002 the indicator value has increasing, up to 1,35 children in 2008 (Graph 6).
Graph 6: Fertility rate in Romania, 1997-2008

Source: EUROSTAT Population and Social Conditions database.

Econometric model on family behavior in Romania and other European countries

In this paper the main question was how family and labor policies are interrelated with demographic behavior. Because of the
vastness of this field of research we have restricted the analysis only to the impact of policies on fertility rate, one of the statistical
indicators that quantify the family-behavior.
Total fertility rate (expressed in number of children per woman) represent the mean number of children that would be born alive
to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the fertility rates by age of a given
year. This rate is therefore the completed fertility of a hypothetical generation, computed by adding the fertility rates by age for
women in a given year (the number of women at each age is assumed to be the same). The total fertility rate is also used to indicate
the replacement level fertility; in more highly developed countries, a rate of 2.1 is considered to be the replacement level. Fertility
rate is influenced by a large variety of factors, as: the mean age of women at childbearing (years), dwellings and unemployment rate,
the participation rate of women to economic activity, womens income and the gap between their income and mens income, cultural
values, traditions etc.
The econometric model that describes the dependency of the fertility rate as an expression of the family-behavior, on the
contraceptive use (for married women %), the women's wages as percentage of men's wages (in manufacturing ) and on women
employment rate is:
Fertility_rate =
= f (Contraceptive_use, Women/men_wages_ratio, Women_employment_rate)
+
(1)
Considering a linear relationship between the implied variables, the model becomes:
Fertility_rate
= 0 + 1 Contraceptive_use + 2 Women/men_wages_ratio +
+ 3 Women_employment_rate +
(2)
The data-set consists of cross-sectional data, referring to 30 European countries - 2008; data are provided by EUROSTAT
Population and Social Condition database, and OECD Social/Family database.
After running statistical-econometric program SAS Enterprise Guide 4.2., to process the data, we get the following
results:
Table 1: Regression results, SAS Enterprise Guide 4.2.

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After estimating the parameters of the model, it becomes:

Fertility_rate = - 0,1472+ 0,0024 Contraceptive_use + 0,0137 Women/men_wages_ratio +
+ 0,0089 Women_employment_rate +
(3)
The dependency between the four variables, described by the previous model is a strong one, as the Multiple Corelation
Coefficient is 0,86 so that 74% of the total variability of the fertility rate is explained by the pooled influence of the three considered
factors: the contraceptive use (for married women %), the women's wages as percentage of men's wages (in manufacturing ) and the
womens employment rate. The standard error has a low value (0,13), meaning that the adjusting quality of the model is relatively
high.
After testing the validity of the model by running the Fisher test and the analysis of variances (ANOVA), the results were as
follows: the computed F-test value was relatively high (24,97), pointing that the model is statistically significant for a maximum
probability of 100-0,000008=99,999992%, which is close to certainty. Also, the coefficients of the women's wages in manufacturing
as percentage of men's wages and of the womens employment rate are positive, showing that these two variables have a direct
influence on the variability of the fertility rate. They also turned out to be significant. The coefficient of contraceptive use for married
women did not prove significant, just like the intercept term, so there is no significant correlation between the use of contraceptive
methods and fertility rate. One explanation might be that the fertility rate is not necessarily explained by the use of contraceptive
methods, but by other factors more important than this. The significance of the coefficients was tested by runnning the t-test
(Student), and the results were as follows: two of four coefficients are statistically significant, for over 95% probabilities.
Graph 7: Correlation between womens wage in manufacturing (as percentage in mens wages) and fertility rate, in EU
countries, 2008

Source: Authors processing, based on EUROSTAT and OECD data.

Graph 8: Correlation between womens employment rate and fertility rate, in EU countries, 2008

Source: Authors processing, based on EUROSTAT and OECD data.

The scatter charts show that there is a positive correlation between womens wage in manufacturing (as percentage in mens
wages) and fertility rate, on one hand (chart 7) and womens employment rate and fertility rate, on the other hand (chart 8). There is
no significant correlation between the three explanatory variables in the model.
Romanian families place a high value on children; their protection and well-being are considered to be parents' primary
responsibilities. Considerable efforts are made to provide children with what they need. Parents' hope and pride are focused on
children's successes. Interdependent and reciprocal relationships are encouraged among members of the Romanian family. Parents
provide care for their children and in return, children are expected to be obedient and respectful and, in later life, to care for their
parents. Dedication to extended family and friends is another important value. A complex system of rules and obligations regulates
each individual's relations and responsibilities within the extended family. For example, in many cases, grandparents assist parents in
raising their children. During the communist regime, the social networks of friends were an important source of emotional and
intellectual support. In the transition period accompanied by financial strain, this support has often become financial. In addition, in
one-child families, friends often become substitute siblings.

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Conclusions

The family must remain the main, the ground cell of the society, which helps all the generations moving to a new economic and
social dimension. Due to the difficulties that families have to face after 1989 political events, family structure itself have changed. In
the mid 2000s, 57,6% of families were couples, 27,7% were single persons households (on average, at OECD countries level). In
Romania the share of couples families was above the OECD average level (62,8%), while almost 20% of the households were single
persons households. Also, the share of single parent household in Romania is above the OECD average level (9,3%, compared to
9,1%). In Romania, in 2008, the marriage rate was 6,95 marriages per 1000 inhabitants, one of the lowest levels since the 1950s, but
still relatively high among the European countries. The divorce rate remained relatively steadyaround 1,7 divorces per 1000
inhabitants 2008 (in the European context, this level is below average). The number of children per family depended on educational
background and region. Most of the families in the cities had one or two children. In 2008 in Romania the total fertility rate per
woman was 1,35 under the simple replacement level. At OECD level, in mid 2000s 56% of households had no children, 20% of
them had one child, while 17% - had two children. In Romania only 44% of the households had no children, but the share of
families with one child was significantly higher (almost 30%).
The econometric multiple regression model developed by the authors quantifies the dependency between the fertility rate as an
expression of family behavior (the dependent variable) and three explanatory variables: contraceptive use, women's wages as
percentage of men's wages (in manufacturing) and women employment rate. The model revealed that the women/men wages ratio
and women employment rate are significant and positively correlated to the dependent variable - the fertility rate. We may say that
in new member countries of EU the fertility rate depends to a great extent on the specific economical-social conditions, on major
changes in economy. If such major changes appear in one country economy, than the family policies have no such significant impact
on the demographic behavior of that country. On contrary, this relationship is stronger in well developed countries, with more stable
economies.

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