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Figure 1: Global Forces (Mega Drivers) that will Influence Tourism in the Third Millennium
(Yeoman, 2008)
Following the concept of Cooper (2005), Hall (2004), and the discussion above it is crucial
to analyse the issues and trends of sustainability, the changing tourist behaviours, and
the security and safety concern together with current or future implication in order to
provide a clear picture of tourism in the year of 2020.
Within the context of tourism, sustainable practice is not an exemption when World
Tourism Organization (2009) suggested that it should:
-
Optimize the use of all environmental resources for tourism without harming the
ecological system
Respect the local community and its cultural identity; at the same time build and
support for the mutual understanding between tourist and host communities
Strike for the balance in distributing the economic profit from tourism related
activities amongst stakeholders.
Despite the fact that such concept is still under many critics due to the confusing in term
of practical scope (Dickinson and Lumsdon, 2010), it will be a useful tool to provide the
policy makers identify the potential sustainable issues affecting future tourism as well as
the solution for such problems.
According to Goeldner and Ritchie (2012), the tourism and its dwelling environment
(economic, social, and environmental) are interrelated. They also explain for the
relationship as the tourism industry is very depending on the interaction between the
visitors and the host communities and the local environment; and, such dependence is
believed to be grown in the future when tourists will be seeking for more in-depth
experience with the visited place (Poon, 1993). On the other and, Gssling (2002) believe
that all components related to tourism can contribute to hazardous phenomenon in the
environments. The consulting from several authors has led to the construction of the
table of potential effects of economical, social, and environmental on tourism in the near
future:
Authors
Corandy and Buck (2011)
Impacts
Holistic Quality of Life and
visitors side
Sharpley
and
Telfer
(2002)
Goeldner
and
(2012)
Ritchie
sustainable tourism
Impose
strict
control
resources
The rise of visitors from big
such as transportation.
Carefully study the volume and
Korea, Brazil.
to
maximize
on
tourism
such
shopping
tour
as
for
luxury
Chinese
visitors)
As it is said by Goeldner and Ritchie (2012), in these days of growing concern about
sustainable practice, the tourism planners should take into account the impacts of
tourism on the destination and how to limit them with the aim of achieving the
competitive advantages in the eyes of new tourists. Chinas economic growth provide
both opportunity and threat to other tourism destinations. Goeldner and Ritchie (2012)
indicate that the rise of this country (in both economic and political status) has provided
the world tourism with an enormous number of Chinese tourists (83.2 million in 2012)
who are encouraged to travel and ready to spend more than other Asian visitors.
Consequently, TUI (2014), the leader travel agent in Europe, has carried on a market
research on Chinese tourist with the aim of gaining a more indepth understanding for
providing the right kind of travel offers to the target group of Chinese tourists in
Europe. However, Goeldner and Ritchie (2012) also suggest that tourism policy makers
outside China should carefully take into account the fact that the country is seeking to
become the major tourist destination itself with a new range of experiences provided.
For the issue of global warming, the author will analyze it separately in the part below
since such phenomenon is the biggest one that matter the tourism industry in the
century to come.
Aspen Global Change Institute (2006) has shown the connection between the decreasing
numbers of visitors to destinations which is too hot to visit. Similarly, the research by
Saunders et al. (2008) pointed out that the decrease of 5.3% in 2008-2009 visitors at
USA ski resorts was caused by the unfavourable snow level.
Apart from directly affecting the travel behaviours, climate change is believed to change
the resource base of the tourism industry as following (IPCC, 2007):
-
rain forest
Coastal impact: disappearance of mangroves,
Marine impact: disappeance of coral reefs, growth of harmful alga destroying eco
system
Clearly, such impacts will reduce the competiveness of one tourism destination as in the
case of Maldives when the archipelago of such island (the base for its tourism industry)
will likely disappear under the sea ((Conrady&Bakan, 2008). To sum up the potential
effects of climate change on tourism, it is essential to sum up the several studies by
various researchers in the table below:
Authors
IPCC (2007)
Impacts
Changing terrestrial, coastal,
Results
Change tourism resource base
Amelung
marine ecosystem
Destroy tourism-compatible
climatic condition
Change in natural base
Weather change
Growing
(2006)
Goeldner
and
and
Viner
Ritchie
(2012)
number
of
summer
destinations
Cost to maintain natural base
increase
of travel fee
Increase
number
sophistication
Customers
OBrien et al. (2006)
more
about sustainability
Indirect
impacts
concern
such
as
of
and
tourism
products
Negative
image
of
tourist
destination
wildfires
Figure 2: Impacts of climate change of tourism (adapted by the author)
It is suggested by Holloway et al. (2009) that in order to cope with the climate change,
the employment of sustainable practice will help the tourism firms in two affective ways:
-
Directly reducing the emissions of GHG from tourism related activities (Gssling,
2002)
The employment of sustainable practices can become a competitive advantage in
these days of environmentally conscious customers (Conrady& Buck, 2011).
For the former set of practices, several agreements have been signed all over the worlds
with the aim of reducing the emission of GHG such as the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (1992). In case of tourism related activities, Airline
industry is facing the biggest critique of producing 3% green house gas. In order to cope
with this problem, the policy makers in UK have suggested the following solutions:
-
The introduction for VAT on fuel for domestic flights: this practice will encourage
the airline to look for more energy-efficient aircraft which in turn profits both
In the wider context of the whole tourism industry, it is advised by Beech and
Chadwick(2006) that the policy makers must encourage the tourism business to design
environmental friendly products and at the same time educate tourists of consuming
tourism product responsibly. Such two way approach is very useful since it can both
generate the market for sustainable tourism product (through educating tourists) and
provide niche product for the more demanding future travellers (ethical tourism) (Ibid).
The case of Gorillas tour in Rwanda by Lanjouw, (1999) can be used to demonstrate for
such practice.
The Parc National des Volcans in Rwanda is the home for 300 mountain gorillas
those are being endangered by excessive poaching and farming. The Office Rwandaise
du Tourisme et de ParcsNationaux has opened and manage the tour to visit such animals
at which tourists are organized into small groups to observe the gorillas in their own
natural habitat. The government agent has involved the local guides to direct the guests
and provide them with all information about the animals. Due to its huge success in
finance and reputation, the program has also got the local people and former tourists to
be involved in protecting the gorillas (Lanjouw, 1999).
Both Poon and Beech and Chadwicks tourists have the characteristic of being
autonomous, want to be experience something different. As explained by Goeldner and
Ritchie (2012), such desire is the result of the knowledge-based society where people in
developed countries can gain access to the enormous amount of tourism information. As
a result, travellers from such countries are expected to be more experienced and more
demanding; so that they will keep seeking for unique experience when traveling. On the
other hand, Dwyer et al. (2008) employs the individualism to explain to such trend. She
believed that consumers, under the pressure of self-differentiation, will seek to customize
and personalize the product (travel experiences) to meet their own needs and wants. In
order to meets this future trend, the practices of niche tourism are recommended to
tourist planner as following:
tourists
demand
Meet the
demand of
Practices
for
niche
market
Increase the number
less
touristic
are
(Beech
and
Pros
Chadwick, 2008)
Poormanagement
enterprise
make
it
hard
skills
to
of
maintain
SMEs
the
Con
s
operators
something
different
Pros
Con
maybe high
Balance the tourist flow within the
Pros
tourism products in
countries so far
(Cooper, 2003)
Require
big
bypassed by
masstourism
investment
on
Con
s
The very first space traveller Dennis Tito has paid to get on a Russian space
shuttle in 2001
In 2001, NASA set out the criteria for space tourists
The privately-built Space Ship One open the possibility of developing the space
travel sector when reach the height of over 70 miles for the first time.
(www.spacefuture.com)
Such incidents have led to the establishment of specialist tour operators Virgin Galactic
by Virgin Group which aiming at developing the space tourism. The project seems to be
successful with the estimation of 13,500 customers who are ready to pay more than
100,000 pound for the trip to outer space.
challenges of assuring such basic need, hence, revising the tourism industry. Regarding
the safety and security concern of tourist in the new century, Dwyer et al. (2008) have
proposed the following mega trends:
-
The up rise of terrorism: following the incident of 9-11 and many kidnappings
caused by terrorists, tourists, especially those are from USA, are becoming more
and more reluctant to travel long-haul (stay close to home is safer) (Beech and
Chadwick, 2006). Terrorism and internal conflict can interfere globalisation by
dramatically increasing security costs for international commerce, and introducing
border control policies.Due to the new characteristic of seeking for new
experience, the future tourists may take risk to enter conflict zone to fulfil their
personal need of achievement and exploitation. It is the work of each policy
makers to maintain the law strict enough to control the terrorism while still
-
The case of townships tours in South Africa, according to George is the very good
example of managing tourism in the high-risk environment. The township tour of Cape
Tour South Africa is quite popular amongst tourists who seek for unique experience about
life in the communities. The government has ordered the tour operators to carefully
examined the townships area to cut dangerous ones such as Mannenberg (high level of
HIV and unemployment) out of the tour program. As a result, the tourists begin to
recognize the protection they receive from the policy makers which still allow them to
discover the life at Cape Town. Consequently, the market for township tour grows that
lead to the increase in resident living standard (Holloway et al. 2009).
While keeping in mind the ultimate goal of reaching the good financial state for the area,
the tourism policy makers must recognize the need to:
-
Establish good policy to let the tourist explore the are while keeping them safe
Maintain good communication for better crisis management
Encourage the practice of niche tourism to meet the new tourist demand
Facilitate the practice of sustainability in both service providers and customers
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