Design Flood Estimation

1. Estimation of Peak Discharge

The peak discharge is estimated using the GIS based Clarks Unit Hydrograph Model. Clarks
synthetic unit hydrograph methodology involves the application of a unit excess rainfall (1 mm)
over the watershed. As mentioned previously, the precipitation is conveyed to the catchment
outlet by a translation hydrograph and linear reservoir routing. For this purpose, the time of
concentration value (Tc), the storage attenuation coefficient (R) and the time area histogram of
the catchment are necessary. The methodology used is described through the following
Flowchart (Figure 1).

1.1 Time of concentration

Time of concentration is the time required for excess rainfall to travel from the most remote
point of the catchment to the outlet. At the end of this time, entire catchment will be contributing
to the flow at the outlet. In literature, several equations are available for calculation of time of
concentration (ASCE, 1996). After considering the availability of parameters the following SCS
equation is selected for this study.

1000

L0.8
9
CN

Tc =
0.5
190 S

0.7

(1)

where, Tc is the time of concentration in minutes, L is the longest flow path of the catchment in
feet, CN is the average Curve Number value of the watershed and S is the average watershed
slope. Longest flow path is the maximum value of Flowlength Grid (FlGrid). As described in the
next section, the FlGrid represents travel distance of each cell in the catchment to the outlet. In
this study two FlGrids are calculated: for weight condition and no weight condition. Average CN
value of the catchment was determined as 78. Average watershed slope is derived from slope
grid (SGrid) of the catchment, which is obtained from DEM. Using Eq. (1), the value of Tc is
estimated as 7.5 hours.

1.2 Storage attenuation coefficient

The storage attenuation coefficient, which represents the storage effect of stream channel, is
calculated from an observed flood hydrograph of the catchment. However, when observed
discharge data is not available, it can be considered between 2 to 4 hours. Sincce it is small
catchment therefore, the value of storage coefficient is cansidered 2 hours.
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Figure 1. Flowchart of the methodology

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1.3 Time area histogram

The area of the catchment is divided into travel time zones. Each zone represents the part of
catchment, which drains the unit excess rainfall to the outlet at a certain time interval. The plot of
these areas with respect to corresponding time intervals gives the time-area histogram of the
catchment. It is the most important parameter of the methodology, since it reflects the runoff
response of the catchment to the rainfall at the outlet.
The digital elevation model of the catchment is used for determination of time-area histogram.
For this purpose, the direction of flow from each cell is found first. Than by tracing the
flowdirection, travel distance of flow from each cell to the catchment outlet is calculated. These
distances are turned to travel time values. Finally by converting the number of cells to area, the
time-area histogram is derived. These steps are explained in the following sections.

1.3.1 Flowlength grid

To obtain the time-area graph of catchment, first the flowlength grid (FlGrid) of the watershed is
developed. The FlGrid represents for each cell, the total travel length of the water droplet from
that cell to the catchment outlet along the direction of flow. Required inputs for calculation is
flowdirection grid (FdGrid). In a square grid environment, each grid cell is surrounded by eight
cells. Using GIS tools flowdirection value of each cell in the catchment is calculated from the
DEM of the catchment then a grid containing these values is obtained and named as
flowdirection grid, FdGrid.

1.3.2 Travel time grid

After computing the travel distance of each cell (FlGrid), the next step is calculating the travel
time values. The maximum value of the FlGrid belongs to the remotest cell of the catchment to
the outlet. Travel time of flow from that cell to outlet gives the time of concentration value of the
catchment. Eq. (2) is used to prorate the values of FlGrid and to convert it to time values (Kull
and Feldman, 1998). The travel time grid of the catchment is then determined from Eq. (2) and
named as TtGrid.

Tt Grid =

Tc
FlGrid
Max.of cell travel lengths

(2)

In Eq. (2) maximum of the cell travel lengths is the maximum value of FlGrid and Tc is the
time of concentration value of the catchment.

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The third parameter of the Clarks methodology, the time-area histogram of the catchment is
determined from TtGrid of the catchment. First, histograms of the TtGrid are derived for
different time intervals. It is observed that as the interval gets smaller shape of the histogram
resembles complex hydrographs, and as it gets bigger the shape roughly looks like a single
peaked hydrograph. Aim of trying several interval values is to determine a histogram shape close
to a single peaked hydrograph shape with the smallest possible interval.
IUH of the catchment will be derived if the selected time interval is infinitely small. Practically it
is impossible to obtain the histogram of TtGrid with infinitely small time interval. So the
smallest possible time interval is selected to apply the Clarks technique.
Histogram of TtGrid has time values on the abscissa and number of cells on the ordinate. The
time-area histogram of the catchment is calculated from histogram of TtGrid by converting
number of cells to area. The time area graph of catchment is shown in Figure 2.
25

Area (%)

20

15

10

0
0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

480

540

Time (min)

Figure 2 Time-area histogram of catchment

1.3.4 Translation hydrograph

After determining the three parameters of Clarks methodology, the unit excess rainfall is
uniformly distributed over the catchment. Then this precipitation is conveyed to the catchment
outlet by a translation hydrograph. For this purpose the time-area histogram of the catchment,
which is obtained in the previous step, is used. As presented in Figure 2, the time-area histogram
represents the percent of the catchment area contributing to the flow at the outlet in each time
interval.
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After instantaneous application of unit rainfall, total volume of water that will be observed at the
catchment outlet is determined by multiplying catchment area (57 sq km) with the depth of
rainfall (1 mm). Then from the time-area histogram of the catchment, percentage of total volume
contributing to the flow at the outlet in each time interval is calculated. Volumes are then
converted to discharges for corresponding time intervals. Finally by plotting these values at the
mid values of time intervals the translation hydrograph is determined (Figure 3).

Translation hydrograph (m3/s)

4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Time (min)

Figure 3 The translation hydrograph of catchment

1.4 Linear reservoir routing

As previously mentioned the instantaneous unit excess rainfall is conveyed to the catchment
outlet by two components: a translation hydrograph and linear reservoir routing. The translation
hydrograph represents the rainfall-runoff relationship of the catchment by means of surface flow
only. The effect of stream channel storage on the hydrograph is reflected by linear reservoir
routing. The translation hydrograph obtained in the previous section is routed by Eq. (3).

t
t

Qt =
I t + 1

Qt 1
R
+
0.5

t
R
+
0.5

(3)

In Eq. (3), It is the calculated translation hydrograph, R is the storage attenuation coefficient and
t is the selected time interval for routing. Qt which is obtained after routing is the
instantaneous unit hydrograph of the catchment. The routing process is continued till an excess
flow depth of 1 mm is obtained under the hydrograph. Eq. (3) results the instantaneous unit
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hydrograph for the catchment. Finally the ordinate of the unit hydrograph is calculated from Eq.
(4). The derived unit hydrograph for the catchment is shown in Figure 4.
U t = 0.5 (Qt + Qt +t )

(4)

3.00

UH Ordinates (m3/s/mm)

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
0

120

240

360

480

600

720

840

960 1080 1200

Time (min)

Figure 4 The 1-hour unit hydrograph (1-h UH) of catchment

1.5 Estimation of discharge hydrographs

The discharge is estimated using the convolution technique. The derived UH is convoluted with
excess rainfall hyetograph. The rainfall excess is calculated based on the SCS-CN-runoff method
(Soil Conservation Services, 1972).
1.5.1 Excess rainfall estimation
When rainfall, P occurs, a small fraction, Ia of rainfall is subjected to abstraction at the surface
(i.e. initial abstraction). The runoff does not start until Ia is satisfied. Therefore, the potential
runoff will be P I a . During the storm rainfall, the depth of excess rainfall Pe (i.e. direct runoff
depth) is therefore less or equal to the rainfall P; and the depth of infiltrated water Fa is less or
equal to the potential maximum retention S. The SCS-CN-runoff relationships are stated as
follows.
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( Fa / Pe ) = S /( P I a )

(5)

( Fa / S ) = Pe /( P I a )

(6)

The continuity principle states the followings.

P = Pe + I a + Fa

(7)

From eq. (7), substituting Pe into eq. (6) the following results,
( Fa / S ) = ( P I a Fa ) /( P I a )
Solving eq. (8) for

Fa

(8)

the following relationship is obtained,

Fa = S ( P I a ) /( P I a + S )

P Ia

(9)

Equation (9) gives the time distribution of abstraction. Differentiating and noting that I a and S are
constants, the relationship are stated as follows.
dFa / dt = S 2 (dP / dt ) /( P I a + S ) 2

(10)

As P , dFa / dt 0 , the presence of dP / dt (rainfall intensity) in the numerator suggests

that as the rainfall intensity increases, the rate of retention of water within the catchment also
tends to increase. This simplified assumption (Ponce and Hawkins, 1996) results in the following
runoff equation where the curve number ( 0 CN 100 ) represents a convenient representation of
the potential maximum soil retention (S). For a known CN, potential maximum abstraction S can
be computed as follows.
S = (25400 / CN ) 254

(11)

Where S is in mm and I a is computed using the following relationships.

0.2 S ,
Ia =
P ,

P 0.2S
P < 0.2 S

(12)

The cumulative abstraction Fa is computed from eq. (8). The relationship given in eq. (8) can be
further expressed as follows:

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 S (P Ia )
,

Fa = P I a + S

,
0

P Ia
P < Ia

(13)

Then total abstraction loss will be I a + Fa .

Cumulative rainfall excess depth is therefore computed as follows:
Pe = P I a Fa

(14)

The Eq. (14) gives the rainfall excess function.

Using the convolution technique, the discharge hydrographs are computed for various storm
events (Figure 5).
25

Discharge (m3/s)

20

15

10

0
0

10

15

20
Time (hour)

25

(a) Event Date: 01/08/2010

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30

35

40

4
3.5

Discharge (m3/s)

3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0

10

15

20
Time (hour)

25

30

35

40

30

35

40

(b) Event Date: 14/08/2010

4
3.5

Discharge (m3/s)

3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0

10

15

20
Time (hour)

25

(c) Event Date: 19-20/08/2010

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16
14

Discharge (m3/s)

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0

10

15

20
Time (hour)

25

30

35

40

30

35

40

(d) Event Date: 2/07/2010

30

Discharge (m3/s)

25
20
15
10
5
0
0

10

15

20
Time (hour)

25

(e) Event Date: 21/07/2010

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90
80

Discharge (m3/s)

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

10

15

20
Time (hour)

25

30

35

40

30

35

40

(f) Event Date: 25/07/2010

25

Discharge (m3/s)

20

15

10

0
0

10

15

20
Time (hour)

25

(g) Event Date: 01/09/2010

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10
9

Discharge (m3/s)

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0

10

15

20
Time (hour)

25

30

35

40

(h) Event Date: 16/06/2011

200
180

Discharge (m3/s)

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0

10

20

30

40

50
60
Time (hour)

70

80

90

100

(i) Event Date: 21-23/06/2011

Figure 5 Estimated hydrographs for the catchment
2. Flood Frequency Analysis
Flood frequency analysis is carried out for the annual maximum discharges. The annual
maximum discharge is estimated using the Clarks model with daily annual maximum rainfall
followed by its hourly distribution. The hourly distribution of daily rainfall is estimated from the
observed rainfall hyetographs recorded by RTEI.
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For flood frequency analysis, two types of distribution functions viz. Pearson type 3, EV1 has
been used. The parameters of the distribution function were fitted with the Method of Moments
and L-Moments techniques. The description of the two distribution function is as follows:
Pearsons distribution
The probability density function (pdf) of PT3 is:
1 x
f ( x) =
( )

x
exp

(15)

The flood quantile can be estimated using the following set of equations (eqs 16 to 21):

+ + KT 2
xT =

(16)

where KT is the frequency factor corresponding to a return period of T years. The WilsonHilferty approximation for KT is:
KT =

2
Cs

C
s
6

Cs

u
6

+
1
1 , Cs > 0

(17)

where u depends on the return period T. The Wilson-Hilferty approximation is quite accurate
for and may be sufficiently accurate for Cs as high as 2.0. The parameter u is represented as
follows.

u = w

c0 + c1w + c2 w2
1 + d1w + d2 w2 + d3 w3

(18)

where: c0 = 2.515517, c1 = 0.802853, c2 = 0.010328, d1 = 1.432788, d2 = 0.189269 and d3

= 0.001308.

w = 2ln( P)

(19)

P = 1 F

(20)

F = 1 1/ T

(21)

The parameters of the distribution using MOM and PWM are given as follows:

MOM:
The following set of equation will be used to estimate the parameters of the PT3 using
MOM.
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 = (2 / Cs )2

(22)

= ( m2 / ) 0.5

(23)

= m1' ( m 2 ) 0.5

(24)

m3
3/ 2
m2

(25)

Cs =

where: Cs is the coefficient of skewness, m1 is the first sample moment with zero mean, m2
and m3 are the second and third moment with respect to the mean.
PWM:
The plotting position estimates for PWMs are given as follows:
1
as = M 1,0, s =
N

(1 F )
i =1

(26)

xi

where F is the probability of non-exceedance ( ). The L-moments can be defined in terms of

as follows:
l1 = a0
l2 = a0 2a1

(27)

l3 = a0 6a1 + 6a2
l4 = a0 12a1 + 30a2 20a3

The L-moment ratios, which are analogous to conventional moment ratios, are defined by
Hosking (1990) as:

t = l2 / l1

(28)

tr = lr / l2 , r 3

Hosking (1986) has given the parameters for Pearson 3 distribution, and are:
For t3 1/ 3 , let tm = 1 t3 and

(0.36067 tm 0.5967 tm + 0.25361tm )

2
3
(1 2.78861tm + 2.56096 tm 0.77045 tm )
2

For t3 < 1/ 3 , let tm = 3 t3 and

2

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(29)

1 + 0.2906 tm
2
3
( tm + 0.1882 tm + 0.0442 tm )

= l2

(30)

( )
1
( + )
2

(31)

= l1

(32)

The extreme value type I (EV1(2)) distribution

The pdf of EV1(2) is given as:

f ( x) =

x
x
exp
exp

(33)

The distribution of x can be given as follows:

x
F ( x) = exp exp

(34)

The flood quantile will be estimated using the following relationship:

1
xT = ln ln 1
T

(35)

The parameters of the EV1(2) can be estimated using either MOM or PWM. The required
sets of expressions are given as follows:
MOM:
Using the MOM, the parameter can be estimated as follows

= 0.7797 m2

(36)

= m1 ' 0.45005 m2

(37)

The associated standard error in estimation of flood quantile is calculated as:

ST =
2

(1.15894 + 0.19187 Y + 1.1Y )

N

where: Y = ln[ ln( F )]

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(38)

PWM:
The PWM of the EV1(2) distribution are the form (Greenwood et al., 1979; Hosking, 1986):

= l2 / ln(2)

(39)

= l1 0.5772157

(40)

The standard error, of quantile estimate using PWM can be calculated as follows:

ST =
2

(1.1128 + 0.4574 Y + 0.8046 Y )

N
2

(41)

2.1 Results
The time series of the estimated peak discharge for the years from 1974 to 2011 is given in
Figure 6. The probability plot is shown in Figure 7. The estimated parameters are given in Table
1.
600

Peak Discharge (m3/s)

500
400
300
200
100
0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990
1995
Year

2000

2005

2010

2015

Figure 6 Estimated annual peak discharges for the period from 1974 to 2011

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Annual Peak Discharge (m3/s)

500

400

300

200

100

0
0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Probability of Non-exceedance

Figure 7 Probability plot of annual peak discharges

Table 1 Statistical characteristics of the annual peak discharge time series
MOM
m1 =
m21/2 =
m2 =
Cs =
Ck =

83.8
105.23
11071.2
2.21
5.15

PWM and L-moments

a0 =
83.788
a1 =
17.993
a2 =
7.133
a3 =
3.768
l1 =
83.788
l2 =
47.802
l3 =
18.628
l4 =
6.491
t=
0.571
t3 =
0.390
t4 =
0.136

The estimated values of the parameters for the PT3 and EV1 using the MOM and PWM are
given in Table 2. The table also includes the value of PPCC. The graphical comparison of the
observed and estimated vales of the maximum flow is shown in Figure 7.
Table 2 Parameters of the PT3 and EV1 using MoM and L-Moment
PT3
PWM

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EV1
PWM
68.9638

MOM
82.0398

116.796

0.7276

43.9806

36.4335

-1.1977

PPCC

0.97408

PPCC

0.92766

0.92766

PT3 (PWM)
EV1 (PWM)
EV1 (MOM)
Observed

Flood (m3/s)

1000

100

10

1
0

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Probability of Non-exceedance (F)

Figure 7 Comparison of observed and fitted probability plots

Based on the visual comparison and statistical test (i.e. PPCC), it is observed that the PT3
distribution is giving the best results. The quantile estimates using the PT3 and EV1 distribution
along with the associated standard error values is given in Table 3.
Table 3 Quantile estimates of the annual maximum flood
EV1: MOM

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Return
Period, T
(years)

F=1-1/T

25
50
100
250
500
1000
2000

0.96
0.98
0.99
0.996
0.998
0.999
0.9995

P=1-F

0.04
0.02
0.01
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.0005

EV1: PWM

PT3:
PWM

XT

ST
(Standard
error)

XT

ST
(Standard
error)

XT

298.84
356.55
413.83
489.25
546.20
603.10
659.99

50.78
60.77
70.80
84.10
94.19
104.31
114.45

264.56
313.07
361.22
424.62
472.49
520.33
568.15

38.88
46.03
53.21
62.75
69.99
77.25
84.52

302.38
372.65
444.08
540.30
614.43
689.70
766.08