Documente Academic
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DFM)
12.15
-18.5%
6,091.24
74,008.55
EPS (AED)
1.08
P/E
11.26
BVPS (AED)
6.00
P/B
2.03
DPS (AED)
0.20
15.85
1.6
9.75
Background
Among the worlds largest
real estate companies.
Established on June 23, 1997 as a public joint stock company, Emaar Properties is one of the worlds
largest real estate companies. The company is primarily engaged in property investment and
development, property management services, education, healthcare, retail and hospitality, as well as
investment in financial service providers. Driven by its Vision 2010 to become one of the most
valuable companies in the world, Emaar is formulating a new course of growth with a two-pronged
strategy - geographical expansion and business segmentation. It has established operations in 17
markets to date. Listed on the Dubai Financial Market on March 26, 2000, Emaar is also a part of the
Dow Jones Arabia Titans Index and S&P IFCG Extended Frontier 150 Index. The company is now
looking to list shares worth USD 40 billion on the London Stock Exchange.
Emaar has strengthened its product sale competencies, market reach and best practices through
strategic acquisitions and joint ventures. In 2006, it acquired John Laing Homes, America's second
largest privately held home builder, and Hamptons International, UK's premier realtor and property
management consultant. It also formed a joint venture with the US-based Turner International to
strengthen execution capabilities. In addition, it continues to diversify its presence into other sectors
such as education, healthcare and hospitality. It acquired Singapore-based Raffles Campus, a premier
education provider through its subsidiary Emaar Education. Emaar teamed up with Giorgio Armani and
Accor Hotels to strengthen its presence in hospitality and will launch ten luxury Armani Hotels &
Resorts world-wide and 100 Formula 1 budget hotels in India. Further, in October 2007, it entered into
a joint venture with Tatweer's Bawadi to develop a USD 16 billion (AED 60 billion) project as part of
Bawadi's massive hospitality development in Dubai land. In the same month, Emaar agreed to build
four residential and leisure projects around Algiers worth USD 20 billion.
Between 2001 and December 31, 2007, Emaar has handed over 21,000 residential units to
customers. As of August 31, 2007, the companys land bank comprised 504.9 million square meters
including the joint venture with Bawadi, but excluding Algeria. On July 10, 2007, Moody's Investors
Service assigned Emaar a long-term foreign currency rating of 'A3', a long-term local currency rating of
'A3', with a Stable outlook. Standard & Poors assigned it an A-.
A number of corporate
laurels.
On March 5, 2008, Emaar won the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Business Award (MRM
Award), launched by the Dubai Chamber of Commerce & Industry in the Real Estate Development
category. The MRM Real Estate Business Development Award recognized Emaar's outstanding
achievements in project management and execution, adherence to delivery schedules, and working in
association with government authorities for infrastructure development. Further, it was chosen as the
Property Company of the Year' for the second consecutive year in 2007 at the Arabian Business
Property Awards. It also won the Dubai Quality Award; the ISO 14001:2004 certification for its
environment management processes; and the ISO 9001:2000 certification for quality management. It
was also ranked in the Top 10 of Standard & Poor's (S&P's) IFCG Extended Frontier 150 Index for
frontier equity markets covering constituents from 26 countries.
For the year 2007, Emaar recorded a net profit of AED 6.58 billion compared to AED 6.37 billion in the
previous year up 3.2%. Consequently, basic earnings per share (EPS) increased to AED 1.08 from
AED 1.05.
Board of Directors
Emaars Board of Directors comprises eight members. H.E. Mohamed Ali Alabbar is the Chairman and
of the company and Mr. Hussain Al Qemzi is the Vice Chairman. The rest of the board members are:
Name
Chaired by H.E. Mohamed
Ali Alabbar.
Designation
Director
Director
Director
Director
Director
Director
Emaar is primarily a publicly held company with the majority stake of 68% held by the public. The
balance 32% stake is with the Investment Corporation of Dubai. Foreign ownership is restricted to
49% of the share capital and is open to both GCC as well as foreign investors.
Shareholding Pattern
32%
68%
Public
Emaar, in turn enjoys holdings in a number of companies that operate across various sectors. These
are:
SUBSIDIARIES / ASSOCIATES / AFFILIATES
COUNTRY
% SHARE
Arabian Ranches
UAE
100.00%
Emaar Dubai
UAE
100.00%
Emaar Education
UAE
100.00%
UAE
100.00%
UAE
100.00%
UAE
100.00%
Emaar International
UAE
100.00%
Jordan
100.00%
UAE
100.00%
UAE
100.00%
Egypt
100.00%
Morocco
100.00%
Emaar Syria
Syria
100.00%
Emaar Towers
UAE
100.00%
Emirates Living
UAE
100.00%
United Kingdom
100.00%
United States
100.00%
The UAEs real estate sector has become the centerpiece of the economy, driven by rising
population, huge inflows of expatriates, and legal and financial deregulations by the government.
According to the Ministry of Economy, the country posted real growth at 16% in 2007 over 9.4% in
2006, with gross domestic product (GDP) reaching AED 698 billion. The non-oil sector accounted for
65% of the total GDP, while oil contributed 35% in 2007. The economy is anticipated to grow by a
further 6.6% this year. Simultaneously, a recent study, conducted by the Research Unit at Mashreq
Bank, in conjunction with the Macroeconomic Research Centre, projected the countrys population to
hit 6.88 million in 2011, as compared to 5.19 million in 2007. Dubai alone is anticipated to attract over
50% of the new expatriates.
During 2007, the real estate sector contributed 8% to the countrys GDP with an investment of AED
25.8 billion. In addition, AED 23.1 billion (16% of total investment) was pumped into the development
of infrastructure, including airport expansions, internal and external road networks, bridge and tunnel
constructions and communications. According to the Ministry, real estate and construction are
anticipated to be the key drivers of economic growth in 2008 as well. The sectors are predicted to
grow by 24.4% and 21.6% respectively by 2010, thereby together contributing 23% to the countrys
economy in comparison with 16% in 2006.
Dubai is the largest spender on leisure projects in the Middle East, followed by Saudi Arabia and Abu
Dhabi. Real estate projects in Dubai are anticipated to reach USD 310 billion over the next decade,
out of which USD 230 billion will be in the property sector. Across the region, more than USD 1 trillion
is being pumped into the leisure sector. This forms a substantial proportion of the total investments of
USD 3.63 trillion in tourism and transport in the region, encompassing hotels, aviation developments,
cruise lines and supporting infrastructure. Several mega projects that are either planned or are
already under way in Dubai include the Dubai Waterfront, Burj Dubai, Hydropolis, Old Town, Madinat
Al Arab, and the Dubai Marina. However, a shortage of skilled labour is posing a threat to the sector
as 160 projects stand delayed.
16
14
12
in millions
As of now, oversupply of completed units is the biggest risk in the UAE. It is estimated that this
problem will continue through 2010 in Dubai and beyond 2010 in Abu Dhabi. Assuming that the UAE
maintains its existing currency peg for the next 12 months, research firm Al Mal Capital anticipates
rental yield to decline over the next four years on the back of real estate price appreciation. Currently,
the average rental yield in the UAE stands at 7.7%, which is higher than that of countries with similar
income levels. By the end of 2008, the average price of residential property is expected to increase to
AED 1,800 per square foot from AED 1,400 in 2007. Price appreciation is anticipated to be around
28% in 2008. However, it is forecast to slow down to 17% in 2009, as more supply is delivered.
10
8
6
4
2
0
1999
2006
Hotel Guests
2010
Population
Positive government
policies.
Inflation in the UAE is surging on the back of rising house rents and pricey imports, as the currency is
pegged to the US dollar. It hit a 19-year high of 9.3% in 2006 and accelerated to 10.9% in 2007. In an
effort to curb inflation, Dubai and Abu Dhabi reacted by capping rent increases to 5% from 7%. In
addition, the ministry has set an inflation target of 5% in 2008. In order to control rising costs for
building materials, on March 13, 2008, Dubai lifted customs duties on cement and steel. Taking the
battle against inflation to the next stage, on March 10, 2008, the government set up a task force to
study the possibility of de-pegging the countrys currency from dollar.
Currently, the UAE has no unified property law governing foreign ownership of real estate. Each
emirate has developed its own approach ranging from Fujairah, which does not allow foreign
ownership of property, to Dubai, where foreign ownership of freehold interests in real property is
allowed. According to the Dubai Property Law, non-nationals and companies are allowed to own only
a free hold property or leasehold right over real property for a period of 10 to 99 years. Further, with
the exception of certain public joint stock companies, which are listed on the DFM, a company with
foreign shareholders is not considered as a UAE national for the purposes of owning property.
Peer Analysis (as on 9M 2007)
In AED 000
Emaar
Properties
Union
Properties
Deyaar
Development
Aldar
Properties
Revenue
12,537,184
2,024,106
214,923
146,837
Net profit
4,838,957
471,743
198,834
1,413,000
Total Assets
53,015,808
9,891,760
8,062,492
19,084,032
Total Equity
34,148,390
5,019,450
5,976,834
4,558,839
0.79
0.17
0.03
0.82
ROA
9.1%
4.8%
2.5%
7.4%
ROE
14.2%
9.4%
3.3%
31.0%
EPS
Asset Structure
At the end of 2007, Emaars total assets climbed 31.4% to AED 54.79 billion from AED 41.69 billion in
2006, on account of significant growth in development properties, and property, plant & equipment.
Development properties soared 45.6% to AED 16.19 billion from AED 11.12, thereby accounting for
29.6% of total assets. During the year, the company transferred a plot of land worth AED 1.88 billion at
Al Lusaily (UAE) to development properties from investment properties. Consequently, investment
properties declined 19.2% to AED 5.64 billion.
Capitalizing on high real estate demand, Emaar started the construction of several buildings as
investment properties in anticipation of future demand. This investment, included under capital work in
progress, amounted to AED 4.16 billion as against AED 2.37 billion, out of which AED 57.83 million
was capitalized as cost of borrowings for the construction of these assets. Consequently, property,
plant & equipment surged 77.6% to AED 7.43 billion from AED 4.18 billion. Simultaneously, Emaars
investment in the Emaar MGF Land Limited (India) drove its investment in associates to AED 9.11
billion compared to AED 6.59 billion last year.
8.6%
21.3%
10.3%
16.6%
29.6%
13.6%
Investment properties
Development properties
Investment in associates
Other assets
Further in 2007, Emaars cash & bank balance more than doubled to AED 4.73 billion from AED 2.33
billion. Out of the total cash & bank balance, fixed deposits maturing after three months registered an
over nine-fold growth to AED 2.59 billion. This indicates that the company is parking its cash in the
form of interest earning fixed deposits which carry interest rate between 5.35% and 5.80% as against
5.60% and 5.75% in 2006. For the year, trade receivables increased 54.5% to AED 0.93 billion from
AED 0.60 billion. Among the geographic segments, assets allocated to the domestic segment
comprised 55.9% of total assets as against 44.1% apportioned to the others.
Capital Structure
Shareholders equity up
AED 36.54 billion.
For the year 2007, Emaars total equity increased by 21.8% to AED 37.19 billion from AED 30.54
billion in 2006. Of this, AED 0.65 billion belonged to minority interest holders, representing a 15.2%
growth over last year. The companys reserve grew 12.4% to AED 16.49 billion, while retained
earnings climbed 51% to AED 13.95 billion. The company came out with a 100% right issue in 2005.
During 2007, 15.69 million shares were issued to those shareholders who had opted for the additional
shares at a premium of AED 4 per share. These shareholders were given the option of paying for the
rights in installments up to a maximum of four. Sharing the rewards of its performance among
shareholders, on February 02, 2008, Emaar proposed to distribute 20% cash dividends for the year
2007.
in AED billions
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Share capital
Reserves
2007
Retained earnings
2006
Recent Performance
For 2007, Emaars net profit grew 3.2% to AED 6.58 billion from AED 6.37 billion, mainly driven by a
growth in revenues. This resulted in earnings per share of AED 1.08 as against AED 1.05 in the earlier
year. However, net profit margin declined to 37.4% from 45.5% on account of a 51.3% increase in
selling & general administration expenses. Meanwhile, both return on equity (ROE) and return on
assets (ROA) declined to 18% and 12% as against 21.3% and 15.3%, respectively, in 2006.
25.0%
20.0%
15.00
15.0%
10.00
10.0%
5.00
5.0%
0.00
0.0%
2007
Revenue
2006
Net profit
ROA
ROE
During the year, revenue surged 25.4% to AED 17.57 billion from AED 14.01 billion in 2006. The
increase in revenue can be mainly attributed to the sale of condominiums, which climbed 69.3% to
AED 8.67 billion, thereby accounting for 49.4% as compared to 36.6% of total revenues in the earlier
year. During the second half of 2007, Emaar announced its intention to cease land sales on account
of increased property development. Consequently, sale of land tumbled 50.7% to AED 1.50 billion. In
addition, cost of revenues climbed 51.2% to AED 10.64 billion, as a result of which gross profit margin
declined to 39.4% from 49.7%. However, we believe, Emaars strategy is a step in the right direction
as this would enhance the companys profits in the long-term.
in AED billions
Sale of villas
Sale of plots of
land
2007
Others
2006
For the year 2007, Emaars share of profits from associated companies registered an over three-fold
growth to AED 0.40 billion from AED 0.13 billion. The company paid taxes amounting to AED 14.45
million as against AED 47.07 million, in relation to the groups operation in the USA and the UK. The
decline in taxes can be mainly attributed to the reduction in the tax rate to 0.2% from 0.7% in 2006.
Emaars Sales Status
Sales Status (2007)
Emaar - the Economic City (Saudi
Arabia)
Jeddah Gate (Saudi Arabia)
Uptown Cairo and Marassi (Egypt)
540
433
190
91
1,367
925
196
67
Tinja (Morocco)
129
112
160
65
1,309
763
Total
3,891
2,456
A plethora of projects
across the globe.
In line with its international expansion strategy, Emaar is strengthening its presence across the world
through acquisitions and ventures in prestigious projects, and substantial holdings in successful
companies. On March 5, 2008, the company announced that it had entered a 50:50 joint venture with
Cham Holding Company (Syria) to launch a new company - Emaar Cham - for the development of
mix-use projects. The new company will have a capital of USD 100 million. In the same month, the
company announced investment in a mega Kuwaiti project under the build, operate, transfer system probably the Bubiyan Island project. On February 27, 2008, Emaar signed an agreement with Sham
Holding Company to establish a joint project under the name Emaar-Sham Co. with a capital of USD
100 million. The new company will develop a number of housing compounds in several Syrian cities
and launch several projects to organize the randomly-built areas in Damascus and the countryside.
Earlier, on February 16, 2008, Emaar Turkey acquired 73,571 square meters of prime land in Istanbul
for USD 400 million from Toprak Holding (Turkey). However, in February, Emaar MGF Land, a joint
venture between Emaar and MGF Development of India, had to withdraw its USD1.64 billion IPO on
account of under subscription.
to water management.
On January 21, 2008, the company's subsidiary, Emaar Education, entered into a partnership with
Stryx Sports Marketing SAE to establish the FCBEscola Dubai Soccer Academy, which will be run by
coaches from FC Barcelona Football Club. In the same month, another subsidiary, Emaar Malls
Group, forged a strategic alliance with SEGA Corporation (Japan) to develop and operate indoor
theme parks in the company's malls across the Middle East and North Africa. Further, Emaar IGO
issued a Letter of Acceptance to the joint venture between Arabtec Holding and Arabian Construction
Company for a contract worth AED 152 million to carry out construction works on the Eighth Gate
Development project (Syria) over a period of 20 months. Again in January, Emaar Middle East
awarded contracts to two companies - Al Taafuf and the Saudi Building and Development
Management Company - for the development of the water, waste management, drainage and electric
supply infrastructure, and walk-ways throughout its Jeddah Gate project in Saudi Arabia.
On December 11, 2007, Emaar entered into a joint venture with United Utilities (UK) to establish a new
company, Emaar Utilities, to manage water resources and environmental affairs for the latters projects
in Dubai. In the same month, Emaar Healthcare Group announced that it is in the process of initiating
partnerships to construct 100 hospitals and 500 health centers. The new project is expected to
generate revenues of USD 5 billion over the next 10 years. Again in December, Emaar Industries
acquired a 52% stake in Caparol LLC, which plans to invest AED 400 million in acquiring majority
stakes in up to four companies in the MENA region in the fields of oil and gas, healthcare, and
construction by the end of 2008. Caparol also plans to construct a paint production factory that will
double its current capacity to 15,000 - 20,000 tons p.a. The plant is expected to start production within
18 months. Simultaneously, Emaar-MGF, its Indian venture, entered into an MoU with Dubai
Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) to tap the burgeoning airport up-gradation market in India. The firm plans
to invest more than USD 12 billion in India over the next four to five years. In October 2007, Emaar
announced its intention to build four residential and leisure projects around Algiers worth USD 20
billion. It is also considering boosting its investment in the country to USD 30 billion.
On March 8, 2008, Emaar announced that it will open a limited sale of commercial space in Downtown
Burj Dubai and Dubai Marina from March 10. In the same month, it also opened sales of a limited
collection of unique villas and townhomes, located in the established neighborhoods of the Arabian
Ranches and The Lakes, and the up-and-coming Umm Al Quwain Marina. Concurrently, it sold a
limited collection of luxury waterfront serviced apartments at the 38-storey Dubai Marina Mall Hotel &
Serviced Residences, and boutique offices at Marina Plaza.
In line with its Vision 2010, Emaar aims to be the worlds most valuable company in the next couple
of years. The company intends to cover projects worth AED 154 billion (USD 42 billion) over the next
four years, of which international projects will account for AED 115 billion. Further, it plans to expand
its education and health care operations into the Middle East and the Indian sub continent regions. In
addition, it aims to earn 60% - 70% of revenue from international operations and to generate 15% of
net profits (2% in 2007) from hotels and malls by 2010. The company is targeting a minimum Internal
Rate of Return (IRR) of 15% on non-property development projects.
Positives
Emaar Properties is a powerful brand name, with a size and scale of operations that allow it
to undertake giant projects.
Its expansion and diversification into key markets and sectors helps the company to grab
prestigious projects and capture all-around growth.
The countrys massive investment in the real estate sector provides abundant opportunity for
real estate developers.
Negatives
Emaar is exposed to execution risks, which may result in delays and cancellations.
The governments plan to de-peg the currency from dollar could raise the companys finance
cost.
We have used the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to determine our fair value estimate. As
inputs for our valuation, we have used the unlevered industry Beta for emerging markets Real
estate development of 1.27. We have derived the equity premium by adding the historical premium
of US equities over the risk-free rate and the country premium. We estimate a country premium of
0.90% using Moodys long-term country rating (Aa3 for UAE) and estimating a default spread for
that rating, based upon the difference in yields for traded country bonds.
As a proxy for the risk-free rate of interest, we have taken the yield on 10-year US treasury notes as
the proxy for the risk-free rate of interest. At the time of this report, the 10-year US Treasury bond
had a yield of 3.510%.
Based on the inputs and the Capital Asset Pricing Model, we arrive at a Cost of Equity of 10.89%.
Considering the long-term debts of Emaar, we arrive at the Weighted Average Cost of Capital
(WACC) of 10.05%.
Investment Opinion
Powered by its Vision 2010, Emaar has developed a new growth strategy through a dual process
of geographical expansion and diversifying business segmentation. Consequently, the company is
developing new competencies in retail, hospitality, education, healthcare and finance. It is extending
its expertise to international markets as well, by replicating the successful business model it has
used in Dubai. Currently, the company has operations in 17 markets. With this, the company plans
to cover projects worth AED 154 billion (USD 42 billion) over the next four years, of which AED 115
billion will account for international projects. In addition, it aims to earn 60% - 70% of its revenue
from international operations and to generate 15% of net profits (2% in 2007) from hotels and malls
by 2010. Further, the countrys massive investment worth USD 1 trillion on leisure projects provides
abundant opportunity for the company to enhance its revenue base.
However, Emaar operates in key US markets that have been directly affected by the sub prime
market weakness, which in turn had an impact on its financials in 2007. In addition, it is exposed to
project execution risk which could result in delays and cancellations. Further, the UAE governments
plan to de-peg the countrys currency from the dollar could raise Emaars finance cost. However, the
companys strategy of business diversification, coupled with its past record of successful project
execution skills, would help it to maintain its strong track record in the coming years.
In 2007, Emaars stock gained 22.1% versus the DFMs rise of 43.7%. From the beginning of 2008,
the stock has lost 18.5% as against a dip of 1.9% in DFM. Considering the above factors, we revise
our Fair Value per share upwards by 10.1% to AED 18.27 from AED 16.60 (as on May 01, 2007).
The stock exhibits a 50.4% potential upside from its closing price of AED 12.15 (as on March 12,
2008). Therefore, we reiterate our earlier OVERWEIGHT investment opinion on Emaars stock.
Condensed Projections
(in AED 000)
2008E
2009E
2010E
Total assets
62,461,598
70,581,605
80,463,030
Revenue
21,711,314
27,081,250
33,606,789
Net profit
7,956,054
10,596,230
12,151,098
1.31
1.74
1.99
EPS (AED)
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
BALANCE SHEET
As on
In AED '000
31 Dec 07
31 Dec 06
%Chg
4,726,616
2,329,278
102.9%
928,476
600,925
54.5%
2,705,232
2,089,211
29.5%
1,469,200
-100.0%
16,194,020
11,121,425
45.6%
4,560,642
2,516,992
81.2%
537,829
851,847
-36.9%
Investment in associates
9,107,297
6,594,214
38.1%
7,433,222
4,184,559
77.6%
Investment properties
5,635,573
6,970,508
-19.2%
Goodwill
2,961,968
2,961,968
0.0%
54,790,875
41,690,127
31.4%
8,825,902
6,265,438
40.9%
7,703,753
3,992,210
93.0%
Retentions payable
1,054,560
875,827
20.4%
Assets
Bank balances and cash
Trade receivables
Other receivables, deposits and prepayments
Deposits from share capital of Emaar MGF
Development properties
Securities
Loans to associates
18,394
11,992
53.4%
17,602,609
11,145,467
57.9%
6,091,239
6,075,553
-1,446
-2,927
-50.6%
Reserves
16,494,778
14,669,084
12.4%
Retained earnings
13,951,469
9,237,022
51.0%
36,536,040
29,978,732
21.9%
EQUITY
Equity attributable to equity holders of the parent Company
Share capital
Employees' performance share program
0.3%
Minority interest
652,226
565,928
15.2%
TOTAL EQUITY
37,188,266
30,544,660
21.8%
54,790,875
41,690,127
31.4%
INCOME STATEMENT
For the period ended
In AED '000
31 Dec 07
31 Dec 06
%Chg
Revenue
17,565,895
14,005,502
25.4%
Cost of Revenue
-10,640,230
-7,039,372
51.2%
GROSS PROFIT
6,925,665
6,966,130
-0.6%
952,383
383,480
148.4%
4,854
-100.0%
-2,118,590
-1,400,432
51.3%
-536,913
-207,048
159.3%
Finance cost
-153,895
-92,886
65.7%
395,916
367,259
7.8%
Finance income
Other income
683,899
253,340
170.0%
402,347
128,110
214.1%
6,550,812
6,402,807
-14,454
-47,068
6,536,358
6,355,739
2.8%
6,575,314
6,371,147
3.2%
2.3%
-69.3%
Attributable to:
Equity holders of the Parent
Minority interest
-38,956
-15,408
6,536,358
6,355,739
6,091,239
6,075,553
1.08
1.05
EPS (AED)
KEY RATIOS
31 Dec 07
31 Dec 06
37.4%
45.5%
66.7%
71.9%
14.1%
9.6%
0.36
0.38
EPS (AED)
1.08
1.05
ROE
18.0%
21.3%
ROA
12.0%
15.3%
152.8%
2.8%
2.9%
OPINION RATINGS:
OVERWEIGHT
NEUTRAL
UNDERWEIGHT
DISCLAIMER:
All reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not misleading or untrue at the time of publication,
but we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. All information is for the private use of the person to whom it is
provided without any liability whatsoever on the part of TAIB Securities WLL, any associated company or the employees thereof. Nothing
contained herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell. The value of any investment may
fall as well as rise. Past performance is no guide to the future. The rate of exchange between currencies may cause the value of the
investment to increase or diminish. Consequently, investors may not get back the full value of their original investment