Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
BRIEF
Tuesday
05.14.13
www.bloombergbriefs.com
HEARD Today
By Grant SMITH
The IEA shifted its production forecast, saying most new production will come from outside OPEC. The agency last year predicted that supply growth would be spread equally
between the two blocs.
Non-OPEC producers will bolster output over six years by 6 million barrels a day to
59.3 million a day to 2018 while OPEC crude capacity will rise by 1.75 million a day, the
agency forecast.
The U.S. shale boom will send shockwaves through the global oil trade over the next
five years, benefiting the nations refiners and displacing OPEC as the driver of supply
growth, the IEA said.
North America will provide 40 percent of new supplies to 2018 through the development
of tight oil and oil sands, while OPECs contribution will slip to 30 percent, the IEA said.
Demand will climb 0.9 percent to 800,000 barrels a day this year, driven by growth from
developing nations, the agency said. The projection is a slight increase from the IEAs
forecast last month. Still, it lags the agencys outlook in October.
Global
oil demand
by 6.1
OPCRTOTL
Index (Bloomberg
Total OPECwill
Crudeincrease
Oil Production Output
Data) million barrels to 96.7 million a day by 2018, as
DOETCRUD Index (DOE Crude Oil Total Production Data)
the recovery gathers pace, the IEA said. The agencys previous outlook went only to 2017.
U.S Oil Production Growth Outpaces OPEC, Will Lead New Supply
Upcoming Events
EVTS <GO>
Source: Bloomberg LP
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the Services) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (BFLP) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
BLP Countries). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (BLP). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
Oil Watch
Bloomberg Charts
Outages
Refinery
outages.
For details,
see Page 2.
200
197 on May 13
REFO <GO>
Brent-WTI
BrentWTI spot
spread.
7.30
7.85 on May 10
OILCBNTA Index
Floating Storage
The median
of analysts
estimates.
For more
see p. 3
100.3 on May 10
395.5 m last week
NOON<GO>
NRGZ<GO>
Global
crude oil,
mil bbls.
95.5
395.9
123456
1 -1
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of EMMANUEL MARTINEZ at FREE TRIAL
05.14.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Market Calls
Jessica Resnick-Ault
Chevrons price line is diverging from RSI, which could not make a higher high. The current collection of small bodied candles and the flattening of the ADX line also suggest a possible change in
Bloomberg Charts
trend. Look for support at prior highs and at last sustainable uptrend line.
Adriana Gill
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the Services) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (BFLP) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
BLP Countries). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (BLP). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
1 -1
Phillips 66 will shut a hydrogen plant at its Los Angeles refinery for short-term maintenance,a person familiar with
the refinerys operations said.
Company
LOCATION
Jessica Resnick-Ault
REFO <GO>
REASON
START OF
OUTAGE
PROJECTED
END DATE
ExxonMobil
Torrance,
California
10-May-13
13-May13
Tesoro
Martinez,
California
13-May-13
13-May13
Phillips 66
Los Angeles,
California
13-May-13
26-May13
Phillips 66
Ferndale,
Washington
30-Apr-13
12-May13
ExxonMobil
Baytown,
Texas
11-May-13
12-May13
TonenGeneral
Sakai, Japan
13-May-13
Jun-13
Jessica Resnick-Ault
Source: Bloomberg
To subscribe via the Bloomberg Terminal type BRIEF <GO> or on the web at www.bloombergbriefs.com. To contact
the editors: jresnickault@bloomberg.net. 2013 Bloomberg LP. All rights reserved. This newsletter and its contents
may not be forwarded or redistributed without the prior consent of Bloomberg. Please contact our reprints and
permissions group listed above for more information.
123456
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of EMMANUEL MARTINEZ at FREE TRIAL
05.14.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com
The Wire
IEA Demand Forecast
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Bloomberg News
10%
0%
12/30/11
3/30/12
Source: Bloomberg LP
Colin McClelland
Refinery runs will increase 3.6 million barrels a day to 77.5 million barrels
in August, the IEA said. The unusually
steep increase is expected to come from
recovery output at Venezuelas Amuay
plant after a fire and new Saudi capacity.
April was the probable peak in refinery
maintenance.
Konstantin Rozhnov
Supply
U.S. crude inventories probably rose
for a fourth week to a near peak for 2013
as refineries got ready to increase gasoline
production for the warm-weather driving
months, a Bloomberg survey showed.
Supplies climbed 450,000 barrels, or 0.1
percent, to 396 million last week, according to the median of 10 analysts before the
EIA report. Were getting close to the seasonal peak in U.S. crude oil inventories,
said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi
Futures Perspective.
Mark Shenk
Neutral
6/30/12
Bearish
9/30/12
Bullish
12/31/12
3/31/13
The bearish sentiment on WTI futures rose 27.8 percent as neutral sentiments fell 31.9 percent, according to analysts estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Jessica Resnick-Ault
Rodrigo Orihuela
Pipelines
Azeri oil exports through BakuNovorossiysk pipeline to Black Sea will
be halted, Prime newswire said, citing
an unidentified person. Russias Foreign
Ministry was ordered to inform Azerbaijan
of decision, the newswire said, without
giving a timeframe.
Jake Rudnitsky
Turkey says repairing the KirkukCeyhan pipeline will take 3 days after oil
flow stopped yesterday morning. Repairs
started on the Iraqi side of the pipeline,
a Turkish Energy Ministry official said by
telephone from Ankara.
123456
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of EMMANUEL MARTINEZ at FREE TRIAL
05.14.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com
the wire
continued from previous page
Oil Products
Cosmo Oil plans to boost middle distillate exports to 1.54 million kls this year
from 45,000 kls in fiscal year ended in
March, managing director Satoshi Miyamoto said in Tokyo.
Yuji Okada
Ann Koh
Trading
Vector Commodity Managements
assets slumped 86 percent this year. The
energy hedge fund run by former Goldman Sachs trader Gilbert Saiz managed
$43 million by the end of April, down from
$318 in December. The fund trades mostly
crude oil and products from January
through April.
Jonas Bergman
Prabhudatta Mishra
Ticker
Day ahead
June 13
Win 13/14
NBPGDAHD Index
NBPG1MON Index
NBPGS1 Index
Dayahead
June 13
2014
TTFGDAHD Index
TTFG1MON Index
TTFGCY1 Index
Change
Time of
From Open Last Trade
NBP prompt (GB pence/Therm)
65.80
0.65
12:03:00 PM
64.15
0.55
1:18:00 PM
70.75
0.20
1:18:00 PM
TTF Dutch Gas (EUR/MWh)
26.38
0.08
12:17:00 PM
26.25
0.10
1:18:00 PM
26.30
0.05
11:53:00 AM
Last Price
Trade
Source
Fair Value
SPEC
SPEC
SPEC
64.15
70.81
SPEC
TPNG
SPEC
26.25
26.30
Ticker
GIEDSTTL Index
GIEDFTTL Index
UGASDEMD Index
UGASFD1D Index
Value
21,828.21
28.26
229.81
245.40
1-Day Change
210.55
0.27
-71.66
1.80
Ticker
Last Price
NGUSHHUB Index
NG1 Comdty
NG2 Comdty
NG3 Comdty
3.87
3.99
4.03
4.06
Change
From Open
-0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
Time of
Last Trade
12:00:00 AM
10:10:54 AM
10:10:50 AM
10:10:44 AM
Ticker
MMcf/d
NAGSTSTO Index
NAGSTOTC Index
11,642.00
57,137.00
Change From
Previous Day
-846.00
-378.00
Ticker
LPGSMBPP Index
LPGSMBPE Index
LPGIEFSP Index
LPGIEFSB Index
NAPHSINF Index
EMEA Gas
Last Price
95.00
28.00
660.00
656.00
93.50
Change
-0.63
-0.38
0.00
-13.00
-0.72
Americas Gas
Russias Federal Tariff Service may approve price growth for gas sold to industrial users in Russia by the end of May or
mid-June, Denis Volkov, head of oil and
gas regulation, said. Gas-price increases
may be 5 percent or 10 percent.
Anatoly Temkin
123456
Jessica Resnick-Ault
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of EMMANUEL MARTINEZ at FREE TRIAL
05.14.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com
SPOT PRICES
BENCHMARKS
AMERICAS
PRICE
99.04
103.97
99.62
95.17
95.42
273.25
271.10
313.10
275.98
271.48
289.60
285.35
283.85
270.60
269.60
95.38
90.13
ASIA PACIFIC
PRICE
108.17
100.35
115.50
117.35
607.75
600.50
861.50
EUROPE
PRICE
Urals - Mediterranean
Urals - North West Europe
Dated BFOE
Daily BWAVE
95 RON - ARA - FOB barge
Naphtha NW Europe CIF cargo
MTBE ARA FOB barge
Jet Fuel NW Europe CIF cargo
Jet Fuel W Med FOB
Gasoil ARA FOB barge
Gasoil NW Europe CIF cargo
Gasoil W Med CIF cargo
Diesel ULS ARA FOB barge
Diesel W Med CIF cargo
Fuel Oil ARA FOB barge 3.5%
Fuel Oil W Med FOB cargo 3.5%
Fuel Oil ARA FOB barge 1%
Fuel Oil NW Europe FOB cargo 1%
Fuel Oil W Med CIF cargo 1%
102.24
101.52
102.36
102.85
953.00
832.50
1101.00
921.25
897.50
859.50
864.50
870.50
881.50
881.50
577.50
561.50
604.50
602.50
623.50
1 DAY
DIFFERENTIALS
CHANGE SPREAD TO
-0.75
3.87 WTI
-1.27
8.80 WTI
-0.92
4.45 WTI
-0.87
0.00 NYMEX
-0.77
0.25 WTI
-4.03
-8.85 NYMEX
-4.18
-11.00 NYMEX
-4.43
31.00 NYMEX
-4.14
-13.13 NYMEX
-1.64
-17.63 NYMEX
-2.15
0.50 NYMEX
-1.77
-3.75 NYMEX
-4.52
-5.25 NYMEX
-0.90
-18.50 NYMEX
-3.27
-19.50 NYMEX
-1.00
-2.00
1 DAY
DIFFERENTIALS
CHANGE SPREAD TO
-1.03
5.80 ICP
-1.17
2.23 BRENT
-0.75
-0.60
-11.75
-11.00
-6.50
1 DAY
DIFFERENTIALS
CHANGE SPREAD TO
-1.19
-0.09 NSS
-1.27
-0.81 MDS
-1.00
-1.08
-4.50
5.50
-5.00
9.25
9.25
10.25
10.25
10.25
6.25
6.25
-4.00
-4.00
-1.50
-1.50
-1.50
PRICE SPREADS
PRICES ARE EXPRESSED IN USD PER BARREL
USD/BBL
25
20
15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
May-12
USD/BBL
25
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
20
15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
May-12
USD/BBL
130
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
24
120
110
20
100
Source: Bloomberg LP
For live prices on Bloomberg enter BOIL<GO> 4<GO>
123456
16
90
80
Spread ( R)
Brent (L)
WTI (L)
70
60
May-12
USD/BBL
Aug-12
Nov-12
12
Feb-13
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of EMMANUEL MARTINEZ at FREE TRIAL
05.14.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Futures
FUTURES BASED SWAPS
SWAP CURVES
NYRB
283.13
281.57
279.05
275.89
262.41
259.91
Bal Mo/Jun 13
Jun 13/Jul 13
Jul 13/Aug 13
Aug 13/Sep 13
Sep 13/Oct 13
-0.12
0.02
0.27
0.37
0.44
0.09
0.18
0.25
0.27
0.25
-0.22
-0.15
0.02
0.10
0.19
0.69
-0.39
-0.78
-0.80
-0.58
0.42
-0.19
-0.60
-0.70
-0.69
0.20
-0.34
-0.58
-0.61
-0.48
1.56
2.52
3.16
13.48
2.50
Bal Qt
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
95.34
95.07
93.85
92.50
102.33
101.85
101.08
100.27
-6.99
-6.78
-7.22
-7.77
287.08
287.91
289.72
289.73
25.23
25.85
27.83
29.19
18.24
19.07
20.60
21.42
282.35
272.45
258.98
265.24
Bal Yr
Cal 14
Cal 15
94.68
90.99
87.68
101.68
98.93
95.37
-7.00
-7.94
-7.69
288.38
286.57
277.32
26.44
29.37
28.80
19.44
21.43
21.11
269.87
262.07
251.30
Period
Bal Mo
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Bal Mo/Jun 13
Jun 13/Jul 13
Jul 13/Aug 13
Aug 13/Sep 13
Sep 13/Oct 13
0.56
0.89
1.07
5.39
0.81
0.86
2.92
3.94
14.28
3.08
-1.79
-2.75
-2.54
-1.93
-1.14
-0.56
-0.60
-0.53
-0.39
13.06
0.52
0.04
-0.18
-0.22
12.35
Bal Qt
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
23.24
19.35
14.92
18.90
16.26
12.58
7.69
11.13
-4.73
-15.47
-30.75
-24.49
859.64
865.63
869.29
869.04
15.62
16.39
14.51
16.79
11.87
11.97
11.75
11.05
Bal Yr
Cal 14
Cal 15
Source: Bloomberg LP
18.66
19.08
17.87
11.67
11.14
10.18
-18.51
-24.49
-26.02
865.50
862.10
841.27
14.51
16.79
17.54
11.75
11.05
8.50
123456
100
95
90
85
80
75
May 13
-5
WTI
Today
Month Ago
May 17
WTI-Brent
-7
-9
-11
-13
May 13
33
May 15
HO-WTI
31
29
27
25
May 13
30
May 15
RB-WTI
25
20
15
10
5
May 13
May 15
May 17