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Human Populations

birth rate / crude birth rate - number of births per year per 1000 individuals
death rate / crude death rate - number of deaths per year per 1000 individuals
crude growth rate - number of births per year per 1000 individuals minus number of deaths per year per
1000 individuals.
Zero Population Growth (ZPG): When the BR = DR and net migration = 0
Maximum lifetime - genetically determined maximum possible age
Life expectancy - average number of years that an individual can expect to live, given their current age
USA Age Expectancy: Men 76; Women 81
Annual rate of population change, excluding migration (%) =
(Birth rate - Death rate) / 1,000 people ) x 100 for percentage)
1963 2.2 %
2000 1.35%
2014 1.14%
Calculate doubling times using Rule of 70
1963 -- doubling time = 32 years
2000 -- doubling time = 52 years
2014 -- doubling time = 61 years
The human population on Earth
10,000 years ago -- 10 million people
1850 -- 1 billion
1930 -- 2 billion
1975 -- 4 billion
1987 -- 5 billion
1999 -- 6 billion
2020 -- 8 billion ?
225,000 people added to the planet each day
Total fertility rate (TFR) = the average number of children born to women in a population during their
reproductive years
As of 2008: World TFR = 2.6 (this is declining)
Developed Countries Average TFR = 1.6
Developing Countries Average TFR = 2.8

Replacement fertility rate = the average number of children that couples in a population must have in
order to replace parents
> than 2 because some children die before reaching reproductive age
Note: reaching replacement fertility does not mean an immediate end to population growth due to
population growth momentum (reproductive and pre-reproductive people in population)
Many future parents are alive (at pre-reproductive age) & will still cause the population to grow
Historical trends in population are affecting the future population demographics
Post war baby boom (births between 1946 - 1964) has had major effects on the U.S.
Two basic types of diseases:
-chronic: always present, affects small but roughly constant percentage of population (heart disease,
cancers)
-acute or epidemic: appear infrequently, but affects large percentage of population when it does occur
(influenza, plague, measles)
medical advances have been made mostly against epidemic diseases, not chronic diseases
deaths due to acute/epidemic diseases:
United States 30%
Ecuador 67%
age dependency ratio = sum of people over 65 + under 15 / sum of people between 15 and 65
As this # gets larger, the country has a greater relative number of dependants
.. this ratio affects economic conditions
Care, Taxes, AIDS-related
Demographic Transition
Stage One (Pre-Modern), Stage Two (Urbanizing/Industrializing), Stage Three (Mature Industrial)
Stage Four (Post Industrial)
Stage One- Birth and Death Rates High
Stage Two- Better access to healthcare/food, death rate declines rapidly (large decline) while birth rate
remains high.

Stage Three- Death rate still low, birth rate begins to decline also (modern society). Population is still
growing but at a slower rate
Stage Four- Stabilized birth/death rate.
Big organizations throwing money want to aid developing countries into industrialization, etc. in order to
push them through the demographic transition and stabilize populations.

China example: girls aborted and dont want them to have health care
1 child policy is the cause (unintended consequences)
Maybe there is no population problem?
The critical factor for a nation is not the number of people it contains, nor even its population density.
The critical factor is the amount of intelligence the people bring to bear on their institutions, especially in the way
they organize agriculture and industry.
Take the country of India, for example: the population size and poverty is a serious problem
Why is India in such a parlous condition? Is it her teeming masses?
There are indeed a lot of people in that subcontinent, >700 million of them; but the territory is vast

Impact = population * impact per individual (not constant)

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