STATE OF THE

COFFEE INDUSTRY
BY NICHOLAS UPTON

taying current on the latest coffee industry news and data

seems like an insurmountable challenge. In trying to stay
on top of the latest ROI stats, gizmos and trends, shop owners
run the risk of getting caught up in the minutiae and losing
sight of the big picture.
In order to paint an accurate picture of the industry as a
whole, we've introduced this column that dives deep into
high-level data, offering a description of the global forces that
make waves across the coffee industry.
Here, we're looking at two reports. The first is from Statista,
a market research firm that's created a dossier packed with
information on the U.S. coffee industry. The second, a National
Coffee Drinking Trends report from the National Coffee
Association, details who is drinking coffee and how they're
consuming it.
10 I January 2014 www.specialty-coffee.com

COFFEE BOUNCES BACK, FOOD SALES

CROW^INC
Coffee and snack shop total revenue is set to surpass $30
billion in 2014, and is forecast to rise to $32.46 billion by 2016,
according to data from research company Statista.
Those record numbers are good news for the entire industry,
which shows no sign of slowing down despite a major drop in
wholesale coffee prices. The numbers indicate that the coffee
bean is not the lynchpin for the modern coffee industry. That's
bad news for coffee farmers who may look to diversify their
crops or dial back their operations. It is, however, good news
for coffee shops and retailers.
Wholesale roasters are in the best position, as their raw
materials are relatively inexpensive. According to recent
International Coffee Organization numbers. Arabica is poised

U.S. coffee and snack shops industry

total revenue 2009-2016
Revenue of the coffee and snack shops industry in the United States from 2009 to 2016
(in billion U.S. dollars)
35 -

30 -

24.74

25.52

26.53

27.84

28.84

25

20

15 -

10

0
2009
SOURCE: STATISTA

30.24

31.12

1 Jw
2012

2010

2011

2013

2014

32.46

2016

2015

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January 2014 www.specialty-coffee.com | 11

Specialty coffee consumption:

consumers of specialty coffee (USA)
Number of consumers of specialty coffee as most preferred beverage in the
United States (USA) from spring 2008 to spring 2012 (in millions)
50

46.00

45

40.90

40

38.33

30

20
15
10
5
0

39.21

39.18

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35

25

39.26

38.65

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Spring 2010

Autumn 2008

Spring 2008

SoURCE: STATISTA

Spring 2009

Autumn 2009

to continue hovering around $1 per pound. Robusta could

continue its slide as Vietnam ramps up what could be an
abnormally large crop. Price drops at the store and consumer
level remain to be seen.
Revenue was quick to bounce back and resume its steady rise
after the drop in 2009 from $26.46 billion to $24.7 billion. The
number showed the recovery topping pre-recession numbers
in 2011 when industry revenue grew to $26.53 billion.
That quick bounce back shows how relatively recessionproof the specialty coffee industry is. While consumers were
holding off on big purchases and vacations, luxury items like
Sunday mochas are still bringing money into shops.
Further evidence shows those lattes and cappuccinos have
become routine for most coffee drinkers. Even during the
decline in shop revenue in 2009, customers still preferred their
specialty coffee drinks over any other options. The numbers
do show, however, that some 4.54 million people found an
alternative to specialty coffee drinks since 2008.
For anyone searching for the former specialty coffee lovers,
it's a good bet home-brewed coffee, pods, tea and energy drinks
have taken them out of the market.
All in all, the numbers of people preferring specialty coffee
drinks is pretty steady. But there was a drastic shift in the kind
of specialty coffee drink they prefer.
Something happened in 2010 that sparked a whirlwind romance
for cold specialty coffee drinks. Approximately 14.5 million
respondents said they preferred cold specialty drinks over hot in
12 I January 2014 www.specialty-coffee.com

Autumn 2010

Spring 2011

Autumn 2011

Spring 2012

2009, and that number rose to 15.05 million in 2010. Since then, the
number has steadilyrisento 16.23 million people as of 2012.
If nothing else, those numbers should be a push for shop
owners to market those cold drinks right alongside the old
standards to capitalize on all possible preferences.
According to the Statista data, 32.15 million people were in
a coffee shop during any 30 day period in the spring of 2012.
That means 3.33 million more people than in spring 2010,
when most consumers were worried about the economy. It's
also up more than 1 million people since the tail end of 2011,
which shows that the number of retail coffee consumers is still
growing rapidly.
How customers spend is also returning to and topping
pre-recession numbers. Large ticket food items were the first
things to drop off during the recession. But the number of
people buying food items has been growing exponentially
since bottoming out in the spring of 2010.
Some 20.75 million of those coffee shop customers buying food
again in the spring of 2012. Breakfast items were the first to return,
as dauy drinkers became less worried about their spending.
Customers began reaching for scones, muffins and biscuits again
in the autumn of 2010 and haven't slowed down since.
Lunch and dinner at coffee shops is normalizing as well. Of
those 32.15 million people, 13.5 million got lunch from a coffee
shop and 6.92 million got dinner. Lunch and dinner times are
a relatively new segment for the market, and one that is paying
off for shops that have invested in food options.

Restaurant traffic:
coffee house/coffee
bar visits (USA)
Number of people who visited any coffee house or
coffee bar within the last 30 days in the United States
(USA) from autumn 2009 to spring 2012 (in millions)
32.15

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SOURCE: STATISTA

The number of people getting lunch at a coffee fluctuated

marginally from 2009 to 2011 without much growth - even
dipping to just 11.45 million people visiting coffee shops for
lunch in spring of 2011. Since then, the lunchtime crowd has
ballooned to 13.15 million people getting lunch at a coffee shop
in the last 30 days, according to Statista numbers. The growth
could be attributed to more spending cash in post-recession
America, but it could also mean that those shops that invested
in food or reinvented how they look at lunch.
Dinner was another segment that was volatile as the
economy stumbled to get back on track. Studies showed that
the number of people eating dinner at a coffee shop dropped
significantly as the economy recovereddipping from 6.47
million people to 6.07 million in spring of 2011. Factors could
include people returning to more mainstream and expensive
restaurants as the economy started getting traction. Coffee
shops may have also driven away customers on a budget by
adopting more mainstream dinner practices and pricing.
The autumn of 2011 was, however, a great time for shops with
dinner, when 6.75 million people reported going to coffee shops
for dinner680,000 more people than in spring. Investments
in good food and a great atmosphere grew the dinner crowd by
another 170,000 people in the spring of 2012.
You can flnd the full Statista report and additional charts at
bit.ly/StatistaCoffee. SCR

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