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PART 1
ECONOMICS AND FINANCE
M-EF_6
SUMMER TERM 2015
1. INTRODUCTION
STRUCTURE
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1. INTRODUCTION
PRELIMINARY REMARKS
Econometrics on an introductory level
(no prior knowledge of econometrics required)
but sophisticated background in maths and (inferential) stats
Some theory, but
emphasis will be on using and applying techniques
(case studies from literature, exercises)
Examples and terminology predominantly from finance
(and partly from economics)
Finance compared to pure economics has gained importance
Consult additional finance literature (CAPM, APT, etc.)
Repeat maths and stats if relevant
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1.INTRODUCTION
1.1 WHAT IS ECONOMETRICS?
Meaning: measurement in economics
Not only applied in economics, main techniques are of equal
importance in finance; here: financial econometrics
application of statistical methods to problems in finance
Examples
Testing theories in finance (e.g. CAPM, APT, Black-Scholes, etc.)
Determining asset (often stock) prices/returns
Testing hypotheses concerning relationships of variables (spot and
future markets, information efficiency, exchange rates, volatility)
Effects of changes in economic conditions or of announcements on
financial markets; forecasting values (level and volatility of returns)
Decision-making (trading rules, hedging)
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.2 FINANCIAL VS. ECONOMIC ECONOMETRICS
Toolkit same
but problems (or emphasis) and data sets different
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.2 FINANCIAL VS. ECONOMIC ECONOMETRICS
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.3 TYPES OF DATA
Time series data
Collected over a long period of time on one/more variable(s)
of one object
Particular frequency of observation or collection of data points
(depends on collection/recording): continuously, per minute/hour/day,
weekly, monthly, quarterly, annually,
All data must be of same frequency of observation
Data can be quantitative (prices, quantities shares) or qualitative
(day, rating, characteristics of persons/products)
Examples: stock index vs. business cycle; companys stock price vs.
dividends; trade deficit vs. exchange rate
Data: different variables x1, , xN for many periods t = 1, , T
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.3 TYPES OF DATA
Cross-sectional data
Data on one/more variable/s collected at a single point in time
(for one day, month, year, )
For different objects (countries, companies, persons, products/services)
Examples: stock prices, returns, ratings of companies; GDP and inflation
of countries
Data: different variables x1, , xN for j = 1, , M objects at t = t*
Panel data
Have both dimensions (time series = over period of time +
cross-sections = for different countries/firms/individuals)
Example: daily prices of stocks of all index companies over three years
Data: different variables x1, , xN for some points in time and objects
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.3 TYPES OF DATA
Continuous vs. discrete data
Continuous data: can take any value (but values can be limited by
precision), determined by measurement; example: return, price, weight
Discrete data: can only take certain values (integers/whole numbers),
determined by counting; examples: persons, companies, shares
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.4 FORMULATING AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL
1. Statement of problem/s and objective/s
Based on formulation of a theoretical model
Or intuition from financial theory (relation of some variables)
Should be good approximation of reality, useful for purpose
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.4 FORMULATING AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL
4. Statistical evaluation
5. Interpretation of model
Estimation of sizes/signs fit to theory/intuition
Yes 6.; No 1.-3. again
6. Use of model
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.5 ARTICLES IN EMPIRICAL FINANCE
Clear and specific application of techniques and development
of theory
Published in widely available, peer-reviewed journals
Methodology: techniques validly applied?, tests conducted for
violations of assumptions?
Interpretation of results?, Assessment of strength of results?
Are results related to questions? Replication by other
researchers possible?
Appropriate conclusions (given the results)? Overstatement of
importance of results?
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.6 ECONOMETRIC SOFTWARE PACKAGES
Many available: EVIEWS, GAUSS, LIMDEP, MATLAB,
R (optional tutorial!), RATS, SAS, SPLUS, SPSS (optional
tutorial!), TSP,
Decision about software depends on many criteria
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.7 LEARNING OUTCOME
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