Trip Distribution

Modelling
CEL 442: Traffic and Transportation Planning

K. Ramachandra Rao

Transportation Planning

Outline

Introduction
Growth Factor models
Fratar

model

Stochastic models: Synthetic or Gravity models

Calibration

of Gravity models

Stochastic models: Intervening and competing

opportunity models
Other models
Bi

and Tri-proportional Approach

Entropy models
Trip Distribution

Transportation Engineering-I

Introduction

The task of the trip distribution model is to distribute or

link-up the zonal trip ends, the productions and
attractions for each zone as predicted by the trip
generation model in order to predict the flow of trips Tij
from each production zone to each attraction zone
Two known sets of trip ends are connected together to
form a trip matrix between origins and destinations.
Growth factor method

Constant factor method

Average factor method
Fratar method
Furness method

Stochastic methods

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Trip Distribution

Gravity model
Opportunity model

Transportation Planning

Urban Transportation Modelling

System

Trip Distribution

Transportation Engineering-I

Four-step model

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Trip Distribution

Transportation Planning

Trip Distribution
The task of the trip distribution model is to
distribute or link-up the zonal trip ends, the
productions and attractions for each zone
as predicted by the trip generation model in
order to predict the flow of trips Tij from
each production zone to each attraction
zone
Types of models

Growth factor models

Stochastic models
Gravity models
Intervening opportunities

model
Trip Distribution Entropy maximizing approach

Transportation Planning

Definition and Notation

Trip pattern in a study area by means of a trip matrix

a two dimensional array of cells where rows and columns

represent each of the z zones in the study area
Cells in each row contain trips originating in that zone which have
destinations in the corresponding columns
Leading diagonal indicates the corresponding intra-zonal trips
Matrices can be further disaggregated by person type (n) or by
mode (k)
The cost element may be considered in terms of distance, time or
money units
A generalised cost of travel is the combination of all the main
attributes related to the disutility of the journey

ij

Oi

ij

Dj

Cij a1t ijv a2 t ijw a3 t ijt a4 t nij a5 Fij a6 j

Trip Distribution

Transportation Planning

Definition and Notation

Trip Distribution

Transportation Planning

Growth Factor models- uniform growth

factor

Useful in short term updating trip tables and

estimation of through trips or external trips
Let us consider a situation where we have a
basic trip matrix t, (from previous studies or
estimated from survey data)
We would like to estimate the matrix
corresponding to the design year, say 10 yrs into
the future
Tij = G*tij for each pair i and j, where G is the ratio
of the expanded over the previous number of
trips

Trip Distribution

Transportation Planning

Growth Factor models- average growth

factor
Tij = [(Gi+Gj)/2 ]*tij for each pair i and j, where
Gi = Ti/ti; Gj = Tj/tj is the ratio of the expanded
over the previous number of trips
When the calculated values would not match with
the total flows originating or terminating in a zone,
then iterative process is used.
Ti (target) Ti (current)
Gi = Ti (target)/Ti (current) and Gj = Tj (target)/Tj
(current) and then reuse the equation above till
the growth factors approximate to unity

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Transportation Planning

Singly constrained growth factor model Fratar model

Fratar model: begins with the base-year interchange data,

and does not distinguish between productions and
attractions
As there is no distinction between productions and
attractions, Tij = Tji the trip generation of each zone is
denoted by Ti =Tij for all j
The estimate of target-year trip generation which
precedes trip distribution is obtained by
Ti (t) = Gi[Ti(b)]; Gi = zonal growth factor for a specific
origin or Gj = zonal growth factor for a specific destination
Subsequently the model estimates the target
Tij(t), that satisfies the trip balance equation,
Ti =Tij

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Transportation Planning

Fratar model

A set of adjustment factors are computed by Ri =

Ti(t)/Ti(current), if the adjustment factors are close to unity
and trip balance constraint is satisfied the procedure is
terminated
Basic Equation:
Tij (current ).R j
Tij

ik

(current )Rk

Ti (t )

The expected trip generation of zone I is distributed

among all zones so that a specific zone j receives the
share according to a zone specific term divided by all the
terms competing zones k
Two different values of Tij and Tji would result, but the
current value is computed as follows
Tij (current ) T ji (current )

Trip Distribution

Tij (new) T ji (new)

2
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Transportation Planning

Growth Factor models: advantages

and limitations

They preserve the observations as much

as consistent with the information available
on growth rates
Reasonable for short term planning
horizons
Does not take into account changes in
transport costs due to improvements in the
network, i.e., not sensitive to travel
impedance
Breaks down mathematically when new
zone is added, after base year, since all
base year interchange volumes would be
Trip Distribution
zero using this zone

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Transportation Engineering-I

Stochastic/Synthetic models
gravity model

Based on the presumption that the number of

trips between each pair of zones is proportional
to the activities of those zones but inversely
proportional to the distance and other
resistances among the trips to potential
destinations
Allow for the inclusion of travel cost
Try to include the causes influencing present
day travel patterns
Assume that these underlying causes will remain
the same in the future

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Trip Distribution

Transportation Engineering-I

Gravity model

Loose analogy to Newtons law of gravity

the

attractive force between any two bodies is

directly related to the masses of the bodies and
inversely related to the distance between them
G= gravitational constant

the number of trips between two areas is

directly related to activities in the area
represented by trip generation and inversely
related to the separation between the areas
represented as a function of travel time

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Trip Distribution

Transportation Planning

Gravity model
Tij K
Tij Pi

Mi M j
d ij2
A j Fij K ij
n

A F K
j 1

ij

ij

Tij= no. of trips between zones i and j

Pi = no. of trips generated in zone i
K = constant reflecting local conditions which must be empirically
determined
Mi,Mj = populations of zones i and j
Dij = distance between zones i and j
Fij = friction factor or travel impedance = cij-b ;exp (-bcij)
Kij = zone-to-zone relationship factor
Aj = measure of attractiveness of zone j

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Transportation Planning

Gravity model - Calibration

Calibration of gravity model involves the determination of

the numerical value of the parameter b that fixes the
model to the one that reproduces the base-year
observations
The knowledge of the proper value of b fixes the relative
relationship between the travel time factor and inter-zonal
impedance
Unlike the calibration of a simple linear regression model
where the parameters can be solved by a relatively easy
minimization of the sum of squared deviations, the
calibration of gravity model is accomplished through an
iterative procedure:
b
Tij Pi

A j Cij K ij

A C
j 1

Trip Distribution

b
ij

K ij
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Transportation Planning

Gravity model - Calibration

Step 1: The initial value of b is assumed and the trip distribution

equation is used to get Tijs
Step 2: The Tijs computed are compared to those observed
during the base year

If the computed volumes are close to the observed volumes, the

current value of b is retained
Else, adjustement to b is made the procedure is continued until an
acceptable degree of convergence is achieved
Most commonly the friction factor function F is used rather than the
parameter c is used in the calibration procedure

Tij Pi

A j Fij K ij
n

A F K
j 1

Trip Distribution

ij

ij

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Transportation Planning

Limitations of gravity model

Simplistic nature of impedance and its apparent

lack of behavioural basis to explain the
destination choice
Dependence on K-factors of adjustment factors
Absence of any variables that reflect the
characteristics of the individuals or households
who decide which destinations to choose in order
to satisfy the needs, destination choice models
tend to overcome this problem

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Transportation Planning

Intervening Opportunities model

The postulate on which this model is based, from Stouffer,

is
Probability of choice of a particular destination (from a
given origin for particular trip purpose) is proportional to
the opportunities for trip-purpose satisfaction at the
destination at the destination and inversely proportional to
all such opportunities that are closer to the origin
The inverse proportionality to the closer opportunities can
be interpreted as proportionality to the probability that
none of the closer destinations (opportunities) are chosen
The attraction properties of the destination are modelled
as opportunities and the impedances are measured in
terms of the number of opportunities which are closer

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Transportation Planning

Intervening Opportunities model

Tij

Pi (e

LV j

1e

LV( j 1)

LV n

This is an attempt to correct the deficiencies of two

previous models

Tij= no. of trips between zones i and j

L = Probability of accepting any particular destination/opportunity
Vj,Vj+1 No. of Opportunities passed up to the zones j and j+1,
respectively
Vn = the total no. of opportunities
Pi = population in zone i

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Transportation Planning

Entropy Maximizing approach

Entropy-maximization approach which has been used in

the generation of a wide range of models
gravity model,
shopping models and
location model

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References

Meyer, MD and Miller, EJ (2001), Urban Transportation

Planning, McGraw Hill, 2nd Edition
Ortuzar, JD and Willumsen, HCW (2011) Modelling
Transport, John Wiley, 4th Edition
Papacostas, CS, and Prevedouros, PD (2001)
Transportation Engineering and Planning, Prentice-Hall,
3rd Edition
Khisty, CJ, and Lall, B.K. (2003) Transportation
Engineering: An Introduction, Prentice-Hall of India, New
Delhi, 3rd Edition
Manheim, ML (1979) Fundamentals of Transportation
Systems Analysis, Vol I, The MIT Press, Cambridge

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