Why election is highly unpredictable this time?

The 11 May elections will be different from any that have been held in Pakistan before.
And it's not only because for the first time an elected government will finish its term and
hand over power to a democratically elected successor. For decades Pakistani politics
has consisted of a series of military regimes interspersed with governments run by two
parties: the Bhuttos' Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Sharifs' Pakistan Muslim
League (PML-N).And as millions of Pakistanis have repeatedly complained, the PPP
and the PML-N have been little more than family businesses generating vast fortunes
for a tiny and fabulously rich ruling elite.
But this election contains new, unpredictable elements. Computer
To many critics and analysts the upcoming election in Pakistan is highly unpredictable.
They have numerous solid reasons to advocate the view point. The vast majority of the
analysts is of the view that there are many stake holder and factors which would badly
affect not only the turn out but also the result.
The following facotors are of prominently important:

1. Talbanization
Firstly, the taliban facotor by upsetting all social norms, moral values, cultural & ethical beleif has penetrated
deep into pakistani society and has left its presence in its ugly shapein all walks of life. The talibans after failing
in winning the sympathies of general masses in Pakistan and internatinal community alike,(A deciding element
in wining or losing a war) are now using different techniques to emerge as the power house of terror by
terroring the people through bom blasts, sucide bombing and target killing throughout Pakistan. They have
successfully proved that they still retain the capacity and ability to strike whenever and wherever they want to.
This strategy of terroring innocent civilians has worked out remarkably well and is playing a key role by
showing a massive success in keeping people inside their houses instead of coming out for voting by putting
their lives at stake for they are daring to risk to go against the taliban whem they dont have any other choice.

2. Poor Governance
Secondly, the Zardari governements last five years term has been considered by analysts as the worst
governement in the history of Pakistan. The rampat corruption, inefficencey, the bankruptcy of national
institutions, energy crisis, poor foreign & interior policies have badly affected the peoples faith in a democratic
values and governement. They will prefer to stay at home instead of risiking their lives for nothing better but
the same faces with new promises for them there seems no hope that may bring an immediate end to their
suffering and miseries. A recent survey by BBC reveals that more than 60% youth of Pakistan will prefer an
islamist governemnet to democracy in its presesnt form so there are very rare chances of a massive turn out

3. Military dictatorship
Thirdly, the long autonomous dictatorship of military rulers, ranging from Ayub khan to Pervezz Musharaf, has
left democratic institutions in a state of limbo. The police, army railway, education health, in short all state
institutions are in a critical condition. These institutes failure to provide services to the common people at their
door step has damaged democratic value very badly. This attitude and behaviour ironically has played a major
role in dividing people on all national issues, like democracy, heath, defence and education. Now every
individual Pakistani citizen thinks differently than the other & prefers his personal interests & affairs on national
interests due to the failure to help people to build up their faith in democratic values. This military dictatorships
has failed to achieve any distinction but is successful in influencing people to lose faith in democracy, as a
result they have no desire to raise their voice despite acute suffering.

1. Talabian a minority
However the situations is not as dim as it is depicted above to some optimsitc analysts. They agree that to
some extent it is true and such factors are making election vounverable and higly unpredicatble, but they
argue that the taliban factor is less than 1% of pakistani population. Most of the pakistani are democratic mind
set. They wanna see their country progressive, higly develop and moderate where their young generations
have the access to all basic facilities like education, health, employment and security so they are quite
optimistic that this time the turn out would be the highest in the history of Pakistan and this turn out will mostly
consist of youths of (20-35) who will put their weight in Imran Khans Tareek-in-Saf.

2. Fruits of Democracy
The analysts do agree with massive corruption in Zardari government, but they onion that people are also not
mired with happiness with dictators autocratic regimes. The majority of the people now firmly believe with
strong conviction that the present crippling condition of the country is due to continuous military intervention in
civilian affairs with short intervals that lasted for decades. The Analysts mark a clear & vital change in peoples
mood and it is an indication of revival of a democratic government that would work only on one point agenda of
progressive Pakistan so they will turn out in massive number to make sure that their candidates mark a win to
change present state of affairs in the country.

4. Corruption
The natural election polls worldwide indicate that current Zardari government will hardly win a few seats in
national and provincial assemblies in upcoming general election. They call corruption a sole cause of this
massive failure. The Pakistani people now tired of baseless slogans and want a real change in their country
where every common citizen can get all basic need like education, job health and security. They believe that
this change is only possible through a democratic government, therefore they will turn to polling station and
this will not make election highly unpredictable because people will choose their representative this time on the
basses of merit.
I personally feel that the election will not be so highly unpredictable because the Pakistani people have long
been impatiently waiting for a change. This election is going to give them a chance to bring that change. They
will come out in huge crowds to support the leaders of their choice not on the bases of any party or ideology
but on the bases of good governance and progressive policies for they know that if Pakistan wants to survive
and come out of this triangular problem (Corruption, security and economy) they must support a leader who
has vision and ability to put the nation on the right track.
Whether election results is predictable or unpredictable one thing is quite evident that the only way forward for
Pakistan is democracy whether it may be in its worst form like that of Zardari (2008-2013) government. This is
the democracy that will set a course for progressive and modern Pakistan where Taliban will have no role,
where women will stand shoulder to shoulder with their men, where poverty will only be in dreams and every
citizen will get his rights at its door steps.

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