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HowCanNewInteractiveCommunicationTechnologyEnhanceHarmoniousandFunctional
CommunitiesatallScalesWorldwide?

ReportofanExploratoryAspenWorkshopPreparedby:
BruceMurray
CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology
bcm@mars1.gps.caltech.edu
February,1995

Abstract
Rapidgrowthinpopulationandconsumptionwillplaceunprecedentedstressesonnaturalresources,on
theglobalenvironment,andoncurrenteconomicandpoliticalsystemsthroughthenextcentury.Stable,
harmoniouscommunitieswillbeessentialfordispersedleadershipatallscalesastraditionalcommand
typepoliticalandofeconomicstructuresdiminishinsignificance.Newinteractivecommunications
technologycanandmustplayanessentialroleinconnectingindividualswithindiverse,dispersed
communities.However,aswithpreviousnewtechnologicaldevelopmentsincommunications,negative
effectsonthestabilityandfunctionalityofcommunitiesarealsolatent.Inthisreport,wevisualizeboth
potentiallypositiveandnegativeeffectsoncommunitiesandidentifyspecificneartermactionsand
policieswhichcanenhancebroad,informedparticipationincontentrichnetworksinthefuture.
FEEDBACKFORMATENDOFREPORT

1. INTRODUCTION
TheforbiddingchallengeofthenextCenturyloomsoverthePresent.Rapidgrowthinpopulationand
consumptionwillplaceunprecedentedstressesonnaturalresources,ontheglobalenvironment,andon
currenteconomicandpoliticalsystems.Theoutcomeofthisfatefulconfrontationbetweenhumankind's
inexorablegrowthandtheplanet'sfinitecarryingcapacitywillultimatelydependonthebehaviorofbillions
ofdiverseindividuals,whodevelopinandidentifywithanenormousrangeofcommunities.
Communicationstechnologyhasprogressivelyextendedindividualawarenessbeyondthechild'sfaceto
facecommunitysinceatleastGutenburg.Books,newspapers,transistorradios,cassetteplayers,and
videohaveeachcontributedtomajorhistoricalchange.Somenewcommunicationtechnologieslike
magazinesinthelate19thandfirsthalfofthe20thCenturyhaveproventobeanintegratingforcesocially.
Some,likebroadcastvideo,haveunderminedtraditionalcommunitiesmorethantheyhavehelpeddevelop
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newfunctionalcommunitiesbasedonsharedvaluesandmutualobligations.
Newinteractiveelectroniccommunicationsduringtheearlydecadesofthe21stCenturywillstrongly
impactindividualsandgroups,perhapsasprofoundlyasbroadcastradioandvideoshapedthe20th
Century.Inexpensiveaccesstoeasytouse,twoway,contentrichnetworksarelikelytoattract
enormousparticipation,atleastinthedevelopedregionsoftheworld.Thus,itisimportantforthosetrying
tofashionpoliciesandactionsleadingtosustainableandenlightenedconditionsthroughthenextcenturyto
envisionhowthetransitionfromonewayelectronicmasscommunicationstointeractiveandnetworked
communicationsmayimpactcommunitiesofallkindsandthusmodifythebasisofbehaviorand
governanceinthecenturyahead.
ThatwastheobjectiveofasmallexploratoryworkshopsponsoredbytheMarkleFoundationofNew
YorkCityandhostedbyTheAspenInstituteCommunicationandSocietyProgramatAspen,August27
29,1994.TheparticipantsarelistedinAppendixA.Herewepresentabriefsummaryofthegeneral
viewsthatemerged.

2. COMMUNITYANDCOMMUNICATION

2.1TheNatureofCommunity.
JohnGardnerhassingledouttheunifyingnotionof"community"asthekeytoviewingsocialandindividual
behaviorgenerally*.Atthemostbasiclevel,membersofanycommunityarefundamentallyboundby
sharedvaluesandasenseofmutualresponsibility.Facetofacecommunities(thefamily,extendedfamily,
school,neighborhood)arewhereindividualsfirstlearnthesesharedvaluesandmutualobligations.As
individualsmaturetheyidentifytovaryingextentswithlarger,dispersedcommunitiesprofessionaland
economic,recreationalandsports,ethnicandreligious,politicalandgeographic,socialand"moral".
However,forcommunitiestobeharmoniousexternallyaswellasinternallytheymustprovidenotonlya
senseofbelongingandwholenessfortheirmembers,butincorporateandtoleratediversityaswell.This
intrinsictensionbetweenbondinginternallyandasenseofseparatenessevenhostilityexternallyisa
universalattributeofcommunity!
2.2WorldwideObsolescenceofHierarchical,CommandInstitutionshascharacterizedthesecond
halfofthe20thCentury.TheabruptcollapseoftheSovietUnionwasthemostdramaticexampleofthe
diminishingpowerofcentralgovernmentsworldwidebut,similarpatternsareprevalentintheUS,
WesternEurope,China,Africa,CentralAmerica,Japan.Theprevailingglobaltrendnowisstrongly
towarddispersionofauthorityandresponsibilitydownwardandoutwardwiththeneedforincreasedtwo
waycommunication,asmanifestedbyprivatizationoftraditionalgovernmentfunctions,downsizingoflarge
corporations,andgrowthofsmallenterprisesworldwide.
2.3Dispersed,SelforganizingLeadershiponanUnprecedentedScaleisrequiredinthisemerging
postColdWarworld.Thereisthenecessitytogobeyondjustinteractingtoenhancingpositive
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relationshipsandproblemsolving.Communitiesmustoffermembersbondingbeyondsharedmaterialistic
needs(theymustincorporatesubjectivevalues.Thereisauniquelymodernneedtoreinventcommunity
witheachgeneration_theconsequenceoftheunprecedentedrateofsocialandeconomicchangedrivenby
acceleratingtechnologicalchange.
2.4ConflictResolutionLeadersneedtoreceivefeedbackfromcommunitymembers.Hence,the
importanceofinteractivecommunications.Interactivelinksareneededtobindcommunitieslargeand
small,nearbyandremote,familiarandstrange.Therearesuccessfulexamplesofconflictresolution
throughinteractivefacetofacecommunication,especiallyatthecitylevel,butalsoinmoredispersed
communities.Thepotentialofinteractivenetworkstoresolveortoexacerbateconflictneedstobebetter
publicizedandunderstood.
2.5NewInteractiveCommunicationTechnology(NICTfortherestofthisreport)canhelp
communitiestofunctionbetterbyfacilitatingdispersedleadershipinthepostCommandEra.Butitalso
canerodeacommunity'sholdonmemberswhowillbecomemorecapableofinteractingremotelywith
other,competitivecommunities.Likenearlyallnewtechnologiesitoffershopeandproblems
simultaneously.Ourgoalhereistohelpidentifythesepotentialbenefitsandliabilities,andtodelineate
neartermactionsandpoliciesthatwilltendtoshiftthebalancetowardbenefits.First,however,wemust
considertheemergingnatureofNICT.

3. ENABLINGTECHNOLOGICALTRENDS
Thenewinteractivetechnologyburstinguponthesceneinindustrializedcountriesistheresultofthe
confluenceofdiversetechnicaldevelopments.Herewesummarizethemostimportanttrendswhichwe
believeforeshadowaverybroadanddeeppenetrationofNICT.
3.1Accesstoanduseofnetsforinformationandserviceswillbefueledbyenormousincreasesin
easeofuseandaffordability:
Continuedcostreductionincomputingandcommunicationcapabilitiesisuniversallyexpectedby
producersandusersalike.
Localtoglobalaccesstonetsisalreadydrawingmajorcorporateinvestment,includingthe
prospectofuniversalwirelessconnectivitythroughverylargenumbersoflowcost,lowaltitude
satelliterelaylinksaccessibleevenbyhandhelddevices.
Easierusebyagrowingnumberofdiverseindividualuserswillbeenhancedasnetworks
incorporateautomaticlanguagetranslation,andasspeechsynthesisandrecognitionsimplifythe
userinterface.
Anincreasinglevelofindividualcapabilityworldwideduetogrowingeducationandexperiencewill
continuallyexpandthepotentialuserbase.
TherecentavailabilityofcolorgraphicsonInternetwithMosaicandNetscape,andtheprospectof
video,highlighthowrapidlyuserinterfacesfornetworksareevolvingtofullyengageusers.
Ultimately,virtualrealitycanbeexpectedtobecommonlyincludedinuserinterfacewithnetworks.
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TheprospectivemergingofinteractiveTV,phonepadservices,andvirtualrealitywithcableand
telephonenetworkstoprovideentertainmentandahostofserviceshasbecomethebasisofmajor
evolutionoftheentirecommunicationsandmediaindustries.
3.2Selforganizingpropertiesofnetusershasbeenexhibitedmostvividlyintheexplosive,bottom
upgrowthofInternet.Althoughoriginallydrivenbyahighlyexpertcoreofprofessionallyinvolved
computerusers,thecurrentgrowthreachesfarbeyondsuchoriginsandindicatesthatselforganizing
patternsofunsophisticateduserswillgrowrapidlyasmorecapableandeasiertouseaccessbecomes
commonplace.
3.3Themotivationforwidespreaduseofthe"Net"willderivefrom:
Individualempowerment,"private"2waycommunication,multipoint,anonymity,multiple
personalities,virtualpersonalities.
Increasingavailabilityofattractiveandaffordableservices,individuallyselectable,notdrivenso
muchbyleastcommondenominatortastesasarebroadcastTVandradio.
Emergenceofnewbenefitsforbothcustomersandsuppliersofgoodsandservicesalike,suchas
recordgeneratingcapabilityoftransactions,andcooperativerelationshipswithpotentialconsumers
toreceiverelevantcomparativeproductinformationwheninterestedincontrasttopresent
inefficientuseofmassmediatoreachatinyfractionofmassaudiencewhoareactuallypotential
customers.

4. PRIMARYCONSEQUENCES
4.1NICTenhanceshorizontalrelationshipsandinstitutions,oftenattheexpenseofvertically
organizedendeavors.Thistendencyreinforcesthebroadertrendtowardorganizationaldownsizingand
flatteningwhichisalreadyacceleratingindevelopedlocalesandregions.Italsomighthelpempower
villagesinthefuture,wheremostoftheworld'speoplesstilllive,andperhapshelpstemthedevastating
massmigrationfromthecountrysidetourbansprawlthatloomsinthecomingdecades.
4.2NICTgenerallywillenhancetheoperationofmarketsandparticipationofindividualsand
groupsingovernance.However,italsofacilitatesinstantaneousassessmentofopinions,whichmaylead
arepresentativegoverningsystemtobesodrivenbyshorttermmassopinionsastobecomeincapableof
sustainedgovernance.ARepresentativeDemocracy,whichtraditionallyincorporatedtotimeforleaders
andcitizensaliketoevolveattitudesandcompromise,maynotsurviveinthefaceofinstantpollingand
publicizingofthoseinstantopinions."WholenessincorporatingDiversity"maybedifficulttosustaininan
eraofinstantaneousopiniongenerationandtallying.
4.3Theroleandstructureofsocietal"intermediaries"willevolverapidly.NICTwillenable
individualsandgroupstobypassexistingsourcesof"news"andinformation,aswellasestablished
controlsonaccess,e.g.900telephonenumbers,etc.Newintermediarieswillarisetoauthenticate
"information"andtofacilitateaccessanduse.Whowillplaythiskeypoliticalandsocialroleinthefuture?
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5. POTENTIALOBSTACLES
Anynewtechnologyusuallythreatensthepreviousinfrastructureinsomeway.Newcapitalinvestmentis
usuallyrequiredaswell.Sothereareinevitablyinstitutionalandotherobstaclestotheintroductionof
NICT.Inaddition,theenormouspotentialimpactofNICTonbeliefsandactionswillinevitablyleadto
attemptstocontrolorsubvertit.SomeofthepossibleobstaclestoNICTweforeseeare:
5.1Consolidationofprovidersofaccessandservices,resultingfromnormalmarketforces,could
leadtopricebarrierstoaccess,monopolisticcontrolofaccess,andeventosupplysidefilteringand
manipulation.Thus,thepossibilitycannotbeentirelyignoredofanInternet"wasteland"arisinganalogously
tohowafewchannelsofblackandwhitebroadcasttelevisiononceseemedtopromiseawidelyavailable
andaffordablesourceofinformationbutinsteadevolvedintomanytensofcolorchannelscompletely
dominated(andcorrupted)byentertainmentneeds.
5.2WillNetanarchyleadtoNetcontrol?Howcandiverseanddecentralizeduserswhonevermeet
facetofaceincorporatemutualobligationwithsharedgoalsandthusbecomeacontinuingcommunity?If
thiscannotbemaintainedonavoluntary,communalbasis(continuingthebottomupapproachofInternet)
thereinevitablywillbeacallfortopdowncontrol.
5.3Tendencyofpoliticalandreligiousauthoritytoseekcontrolofsuchapowerfulnewmeansof
humandiscourseandinteractionislikely.Forexample,willtherebe:
Attemptstocontrolreceivers?.Thispracticemaybeunworkable,likeFaxmachinesinChina.
"Moral"prohibitionsfromlisteningand,especially,frominteracting?Thatapproachmaybetriedin
Fundamentalreligiouscommunities,e.g.ShiiteMoslems.
5.4InformationOverloadandSaturationcouldbecomethemostsignificantbarriertoutilizingthe
potentialoftheNetforallbutthemostsophisticatedusers.Willsoftware"agents"and"filters"really
empowerordinaryindividualsandsmallgroupstonavigatethevastoceanofinformation,trivia,
misinformation?
5.5EquityIssues.Lackofsophistication,expertise,andcapitalinthecountryside,aswellaswithinthe
urbanunderclass,couldleadto:
Technicalinterferenceasamanifestationofangeranddisempowerment.
Oppositiontogovernmentfundingonthebasisofunfairnessandunequalaccessandpreparation.

6. NEARTERMDESIRABLEACTIONS
6.1EncouragesocietalactivitiesthatcanaccelerategrowthandbroaduseofNIAC,suchas
Encouraginginexpensiveanduserfriendlyconnectivityforschoolssothatskillsaredevelopedearly
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andnaturally.
MandatingandfundingNIACingovernmentservicesandoperations.
Creatingadditionalprivateincentives,suchasaccelerateddepreciationforinvestmentinNIAC.
Mandatingandencouragingseparationofownershipofentitiesinvolvedwithcontentproduction
fromthosethatprovideaccess.
Enhancingtheeducationofpotentialusersofallagesleadingtoincreasedabilitytoselect,use,and
interpretwhattheycanaccessontheNet.

6.2DevelopMeanstoEnhanceParticipationofCountrysideandUrbanUnderclass
Expandpositivecityexperiencewithinteractivecommunicationtocountrysidethroughsubsidized
demonstrationlinks.
Increasetheabilityofcountrysideandurbancenterstocompeteinuseofrefswithcitydwellers
throughsubsidizedaccessandtraining.
Makemorecredibletheoftpromisedbenefitsoftelecommutingandtheabilitytoworkfromrural
andinnercitylocationsthroughnetworking.
Encouragelocalownershipofaccesssystemsandencouragelocalinvolvementinsomecontent
production.
Developincentivestomitigatepossiblenegativereactionbydevelopingpeoplesandregionsto
perceived"cyberneticcolonialism",suchasearly,subsidizedinvolvementofpoorerregions.

7. NEXTSTEPS
Thepurposeofthesmall,informalAspenconferencewastoexplorehownewinteractivecommunications
werelikelytoaffecthumanbehaviorinthecomingcentury.Thisisausefulwaytoengagepartofthe
largerproblemofcollectivevisualizationoffuturepossibilitiesandthedevelopingofconsensusfornear
termmoderatingactions.Fromthepointofviewoftheparticipants,theAspenconferencewasquite
successfulinbetterdefiningthetopicsandtheissues.Indeed,somewellfocussedconferencesstartwitha
welldefined"termsofreference".Inourexploratorycase,weweredelightedtoendwithsuchwhich
becamethebasisofthisreport.
Theultimateobjectiveofthiskindofworkistocatalyzevisualizationofthefuture,especiallyconcerning
welldefinedtechnologicalthemeslikeinteractivecommunication.Suchwidespreadvisualizationcan
stimulateconstructiveresponsesbytheverycommunitieswealludetoinourreportgovernmental,
private,andnonprofitatlocal,national,regional,internationalscales.
Asfarasthedirectionnowfortheeffortreportedhere,itisdesirabletobroadenthedialogueand
discussionandtoimproveandextendtheanalysis.Secondly,itisimportanttogatherrelevant,factual
information.Forexample,arethereexamplesofinteractiononelectronicnetworksthathavebeen
importantinconflictresolutionandinbuildingcommunity?Wemustalsoaskiftheyhavehadtheopposite
effect.Thus,wearecirculatingthisreportforcomment.
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AnimmediateapproachbyMurraywillbetomakethisreportavailableontheWorldWideWeband
solicitdiscussionofandinputstoitthroughInternet,especiallyfactualcurrentandpastexamplesthatmay
berelevanttoourprojections.
Theresultingimprovedanalysis,withricherdetails,thencanformthebasisofotherkindsofinteractionsin
othermedia.

FEEDBACKFORM

APPENDIXA.PARTICIPANTS
CONFERENCEON"THEIMPACTOFINTERACTIVE
COMMUNICATIONSONFUTUREATTITUDESANDBEHAVIORS"

Aspen,Colorado
August2629,1994
Ms.EdithBjornson
ProgramOfficer
TheJohnandMaryR.MarkleFoundation
75RockefellerPlazaSuite1800
NewYork,NY100196908
Dr.DavidBrin
801CalleSantaCruz
Encinitas,CA920249661
Dr.AnnieCohenSolal
421HudsonStreetApt.603
NewYork,NY10014
Ms.EstherDyson
President
EDventureHoldings,Inc.
104FifthAvenue20thFloor
NewYork,NY10011
Mr.CharlesFirestone
Director
TheAspenInstitute
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CommunicationandSocietyProgram
1333NewHampshireSuite1070
Washington,DC20036
Dr.JohnGaddis
OhioUniversity
BrownHouse
2UniversityTerrace
Athens,OH457012979
Dr.JohnGardner
GraduateSchoolofBusiness
RoomL281
StanfordUniversity
Stanford,CA943055015
Dr.AllenHammond
WorldResourcesInstitute
1709NewYorkAvenue,NW
Suite700
Washington,DC20006
Dr.LloydMorrisett
President
TheJohnandMaryR.MarkleFoundation
75RockefellerPlaza
Suite1800
NewYork,NY100196908
Dr.BruceMurray
CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology
DivisionofGeologicalandPlanetarySciences17025
Pasadena,CA91125
ProfessorMonroePrice
CardozoSchoolofLaw
555thAvenue
Room527
NewYork,NY10003

*See"BuildingCommunity",publishedbyIndependentSector,Washington,DC,1991,and"On
Leadership",TheFreePress,NewYork,1990(Chapter11).2/24/94
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