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23 (de) vizualizări4 paginiBionomial Document of Statistics

Jun 09, 2015

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Bionomial Document of Statistics

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23 (de) vizualizări

Bionomial Document of Statistics

© All Rights Reserved

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A Binomial Experiment:

trials.

P Y y

n!

p y q ny

y! (n - y)!

o

np

2

o npq

Testing Hypotheses

o the null hypothesis specifies the value of some population parameter. For

example, p = .5 (two-tailed, nondirectional; this coin is fair) or p < .25

(one-tailed; directional; student is merely guessing on 4-choice multiple

choice test).

o the alternative hypothesis, which the researcher often wants to support, is

the antithetical complement of the null. For example, p .5 (two-tailed,

the coin is biased) or p > .25 (one-tailed, the student is not merely

guessing, e knows tested material).

Specify the sampling (probability) distribution and the test statistic (Y). Example:

the binomial distribution describes the probability that a single sample of n trials

would result in (Y = y) successes (if assumptions of binomial are true).

Set alpha at a level determined by how great a risk of a Type I error (falsely

rejecting a true null) you are willing to take. Traditional values of alpha are .05

and .01.

Binomial.docx

Page 2

o From the sampling distribution associated with a true null hypothesis, map

out the rejection region, the values of the sample test statistic that would

be obtained with a probability of or less.

o With directional hypotheses, the rejection region will be in one tail; with

nondirectional hypotheses, in two tails ( / 2 in each tail)

o if the test statistic falls in the rejection area, reject the null and assert the

alternative hypothesis. If not, fail to reject the null.

o The boundary between rejection and nonrejection areas is sometimes

called the critical value of the test statistic.

o From the sample data, compute P, the significance level, the probability

that one would obtain a sample result as or more contradictory to the null

hypothesis than that actually observed.

o Examples for a one-tailed test:

articles of infants clothing and asked to pick the one which

was their infants. They were successful in doing so 72% of

the time, significantly more often than would be expected by

chance, exact binomial p (one-tailed) = .021.

P(Y ) matches that of H1)

2P(Y 18) = 2(.022) = .044

1

2P(Y 7) = 2(.022) = .044 (the direction of the P(Y ) is that which

gives the smaller p value; P(Y 7) = .993 and 2(.993) = 1.986,

obviously not a possible p.

Page 3

does merely reporting rejection or no rejection of the null: p = .06

and p = .95 might both lead to no rejection, but the former

nonetheless casts doubt on the null, the latter certainly does not.

Likewise, p = .04 and p = .001 may lead to the same conclusion,

but the latter would indicate greater confidence.

and it just would be too hard to do it by hand, you may be able to approximate it

using the normal curve.

example, we want to find P(Y 18 | n = 25, p = .5).

25(.5) 2 25(.5)(. 5) 12.5 2(2.5) 7.5 17.5

, which is contained within 0

25, so the normal approximation should be good.

17.5 12.5

2

2.5

We compute

. Note that I reduced the value for the number of

successes from 18 to 17.5. This is called the "correction for continuity." The

reasoning behind it goes something like this: We are using a continuous

distribution to approximate a discrete probability. Accordingly, we should think of

'18' as being '17.5 to 18.5.' Since we want the probability of getting 18 or more

successes, we find the z-score for getting 17.5 or more -- that way we include all

of '18' in the obtained probability. If we wanted to estimate the probability of

getting 18 or fewer successes, we would use '18.5,' again, to inlcude all of '18' in

the obtained probability. On a practical note, the approximated probability will be

closer to the exact binomial probability if the we use the correction for continuity

than it would be if we did not use the correction.

z

We then use the normal curve table to get the probability from the z-score. For

our z-score of 2.00, the probability is .0228.

With matched pairs data we may simply compute, for each pair, whether the

difference score is positive or negative and then test the null hypothesis that in

the population 50% of the difference scores are positive.

For example, suppose we have pre and post blood pressure scores for each of

ten subjects given an experimental drug. Our null hypothesis is that the drug has

no effect on blood pressure.

Page 4

We test 11 subjects. For 9 subjects pressure is lower after taking the drug, for 1

it is higher and for 1 it is unchanged.

Our test statistic is the larger of n+ (the number of positive difference scores) and

n (the number of negative difference scores). Unless there are many difference

scores of zero, we usually discard data from subjects with difference scores of

zero (an alternative procedure would be to count zero difference scores as being

included with the smaller of n+ and n).

Following the usual procedure, our test statistic would be n+ = 9, with n = 10.

The exact two-tailed p value is 2P(Y 9 n = 10, p = .5) = .022, sufficiently low

to reject the null hypothesis at the customary .05 level of significance.

Our APA-style summary statement might read like this: An exact binomial sign

test indicated that the drug significantly lowered blood pressure, 9 of 10 patients

having post-treatment pressure lower than their pre-treatment pressure, p = .

022. Were we to use a normal approximation rather than an exact test, we

would include the value of z in our summary statement.

Links

Estimating Binomial Proportions

A little binomial humor

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