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HenryA.Kissinger

HENRYA.KISSINGER
ARTICLES
THEFUTURE OFU.S.CHINESERELATIONS
CONFLICTIS ACHOICE,NOT ANECESSITY
BYHENRYA.KISSINGER

ForeignAffairsMarch/April2012
OnJanuary19,2011,U.S.PresidentBarackObamaandChinesePresidentHuJintaoissuedajointstatement
attheendofHu'svisittoWashington.Itproclaimedtheirsharedcommitmenttoa"positive,cooperative,and
comprehensiveU.S.Chinarelationship."Eachpartyreassuredtheotherregardinghisprincipalconcern,
announcing,"TheUnitedStatesreiteratedthatitwelcomesastrong,prosperous,andsuccessfulChinathat
playsagreaterroleinworldaffairs.ChinawelcomestheUnitedStatesasanAsiaPacificnationthat
contributestopeace,stabilityandprosperityintheregion."
Sincethen,thetwogovernmentshavesetaboutimplementingthestatedobjectives.TopAmericanand
Chineseofficialshaveexchangedvisitsandinstitutionalizedtheirexchangesonmajorstrategicandeconomic
issues.Militarytomilitarycontactshavebeenrestarted,openinganimportantchannelofcommunication.And
attheunofficiallevel,socalledtracktwogroupshaveexploredpossibleevolutionsoftheU.S.Chinese
relationship.
Yetascooperationhasincreased,sohascontroversy.Significantgroupsinbothcountriesclaimthatacontest
forsupremacybetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesisinevitableandperhapsalreadyunderway.Inthis
perspective,appealsforU.S.Chinesecooperationappearoutmodedandevennaive.
Themutualrecriminationsemergefromdistinctyetparallelanalysesineachcountry.SomeAmerican
strategicthinkersarguethatChinesepolicypursuestwolongtermobjectives:displacingtheUnitedStatesas
thepreeminentpowerinthewesternPacificandconsolidatingAsiaintoanexclusionaryblocdeferringto
Chineseeconomicandforeignpolicyinterests.Inthisconception,eventhoughChina'sabsolutemilitary
capacitiesarenotformallyequaltothoseoftheUnitedStates,Beijingpossessestheabilitytopose
unacceptablerisksinaconflictwithWashingtonandisdevelopingincreasinglysophisticatedmeanstonegate
traditionalU.S.advantages.Itsinvulnerablesecondstrikenuclearcapabilitywilleventuallybepairedwithan
expandingrangeofantishipballisticmissilesandasymmetriccapabilitiesinnewdomainssuchascyberspace
andspace.Chinacouldsecureadominantnavalpositionthroughaseriesofislandchainsonitsperiphery,
somefear,andoncesuchascreenexists,China'sneighbors,dependentastheyareonChinesetradeand
uncertainoftheUnitedStates'abilitytoreact,mightadjusttheirpoliciesaccordingtoChinesepreferences.
Eventually,thiscouldleadtothecreationofaSinocentricAsianblocdominatingthewesternPacific.Themost
recentU.S.defensestrategyreportreflects,atleastimplicitly,someoftheseapprehensions.
NoChinesegovernmentofficialshaveproclaimedsuchastrategyasChina'sactualpolicy.Indeed,theystress
theopposite.However,enoughmaterialexistsinChina'squasiofficialpressandresearchinstitutestolend
somesupporttothetheorythatrelationsareheadingforconfrontationratherthancooperation.
U.S.strategicconcernsaremagnifiedbyideologicalpredispositionstobattlewiththeentirenondemocratic
world.Authoritarianregimes,someargue,areinherentlybrittle,impelledtorallydomesticsupportby
nationalistandexpansionistrhetoricandpractice.Inthesetheoriesversionsofwhichareembracedin
segmentsofboththeAmericanleftandtheAmericanrighttensionandconflictwithChinagrowoutof
China'sdomesticstructure.Universalpeacewillcome,itisasserted,fromtheglobaltriumphofdemocracy
ratherthanfromappealsforcooperation.ThepoliticalscientistAaronFriedbergwrites,forexample,that"a
liberaldemocraticChinawillhavelittlecausetofearitsdemocraticcounterparts,stilllesstouseforceagainst
them."Therefore,"strippedofdiplomaticniceties,theultimateaimoftheAmericanstrategy[shouldbe]to
hastenarevolution,albeitapeacefulone,thatwillsweepawayChina'sonepartyauthoritarianstateand
leavealiberaldemocracyinitsplace."
OntheChineseside,theconfrontationalinterpretationsfollowaninverselogic.TheyseetheUnitedStatesas
awoundedsuperpowerdeterminedtothwarttheriseofanychallenger,ofwhichChinaisthemostcredible.
NomatterhowintenselyChinapursuescooperation,someChineseargue,Washington'sfixedobjectivewillbe
toheminagrowingChinabymilitarydeploymentandtreatycommitments,thuspreventingitfromplaying
itshistoricroleastheMiddleKingdom.Inthisperspective,anysustainedcooperationwiththeUnitedStatesis
selfdefeating,sinceitwillonlyservetheoverridingU.S.objectiveofneutralizingChina.Systematichostilityis
occasionallyconsideredtoinhereeveninAmericanculturalandtechnologicalinfluences,whicharesometimes
castasaformofdeliberatepressuredesignedtocorrodeChina'sdomesticconsensusandtraditionalvalues.
ThemostassertivevoicesarguethatChinahasbeenundulypassiveinthefaceofhostiletrendsandthat(for
example,inthecaseofterritorialissuesintheSouthChinaSea)Chinashouldconfrontthoseofitsneighbors
withwhichithasdisputedclaimsandthen,inthewordsofthestrategicanalystLongTao,"reason,think
aheadandstrikefirstbeforethingsgraduallyrunoutofhandlaunch[ing]sometinyscalebattlesthatcould
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deterprovocateursfromgoingfurther."
ThePastNeedNotBePrologue
Isthere,then,apointinthequestforacooperativeU.S.Chineserelationshipandinpoliciesdesignedto
achieveit?Tobesure,theriseofpowershashistoricallyoftenledtoconflictwithestablishedcountries.But
conditionshavechanged.Itisdoubtfulthattheleaderswhowentsoblithelyintoaworldwarin1914would
havedonesohadtheyknownwhattheworldwouldbelikeatitsend.Contemporaryleaderscanhaveno
suchillusions.Amajorwarbetweendevelopednuclearcountriesmustbringcasualtiesandupheavals
impossibletorelatetocalculableobjectivesPreemptionisallbutexcluded,especiallyforapluralisticdemocracy
suchastheUnitedStates.
Ifchallenged,theUnitedStateswilldowhatitmusttopreserveitssecurity.Butitshouldnotadopt
confrontationasastrategyofchoice.InChina,theUnitedStateswouldencounteranadversaryskilledover
thecenturiesinusingprolongedconflictasastrategyandwhosedoctrineemphasizesthepsychological
exhaustionoftheopponent.Inanactualconflict,bothsidespossessthecapabilitiesandtheingenuitytoinflict
catastrophicdamageoneachother.Bythetimeanysuchhypotheticalconflagrationdrewtoaclose,all
participantswouldbeleftexhaustedanddebilitated.Theywouldthenbeobligedtofaceanewtheverytask
thatconfrontsthemtoday:theconstructionofaninternationalorderinwhichbothcountriesaresignificant
components.
TheblueprintsforcontainmentdrawnfromColdWarstrategiesusedbybothsidesagainstanexpansionist
SovietUniondonotapplytocurrentconditions.TheeconomyoftheSovietUnionwasweak(exceptfor
militaryproduction)anddidnotaffecttheglobaleconomy.OnceChinabrokeofftiesandejectedSoviet
advisers,fewcountriesexceptthoseforciblyabsorbedintotheSovietorbithadamajorstakeintheireconomic
relationshipwithMoscow.ContemporaryChina,bycontrast,isadynamicfactorintheworldeconomy.Itisa
principaltradingpartnerofallitsneighborsandmostoftheWesternindustrialpowers,includingtheUnited
States.AprolongedconfrontationbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStateswouldaltertheworldeconomywith
unsettlingconsequencesforall.
NorwouldChinafindthatthestrategyitpursuedinitsownconflictwiththeSovietUnionfitsaconfrontation
withtheUnitedStates.OnlyafewcountriesandnoAsianoneswouldtreatanAmericanpresenceinAsia
as"fingers"tobe"choppedoff"(inDengXiaoping'sgraphicphraseaboutSovietforwardpositions).Eventhose
AsianstatesthatarenotmembersofallianceswiththeUnitedStatesseekthereassuranceofanAmerican
politicalpresenceintheregionandofAmericanforcesinnearbyseasastheguarantoroftheworldtowhich
theyhavebecomeaccustomed.TheirapproachwasexpressedbyaseniorIndonesianofficialtoanAmerican
counterpart:"Don'tleaveus,butdon'tmakeuschoose."
China'srecentmilitarybuildupisnotinitselfanexceptionalphenomenon:themoreunusualoutcomewould
beiftheworld'ssecondlargesteconomyandlargestimporterofnaturalresourcesdidnottranslateits
economicpowerintosomeincreasedmilitarycapacity.Theissueiswhetherthatbuildupisopenendedandto
whatpurposesitisput.IftheUnitedStatestreatseveryadvanceinChinesemilitarycapabilitiesasahostile
act,itwillquicklyfinditselfenmeshedinanendlessseriesofdisputesonbehalfofesotericaims.ButChina
mustbeaware,fromitsownhistory,ofthetenuousdividinglinebetweendefensiveandoffensivecapabilities
andoftheconsequencesofanunrestrainedarmsrace.
China'sleaderswillhavetheirownpowerfulreasonsforrejectingdomesticappealsforanadversarialapproach
asindeedtheyhavepubliclyproclaimed.China'simperialexpansionhashistoricallybeenachievedby
osmosisratherthanconquest,orbytheconversiontoChinesecultureofconquerorswhothenaddedtheir
ownterritoriestotheChinesedomain.DominatingAsiamilitarilywouldbeaformidableundertaking.The
SovietUnion,duringtheColdWar,borderedonastringofweakcountriesdrainedbywarandoccupationand
dependentonAmericantroopcommitmentsfortheirdefense.ChinatodayfacesRussiainthenorthJapan
andSouthKorea,withAmericanmilitaryalliances,totheeastVietnamandIndiatothesouthandIndonesia
andMalaysianotfaraway.Thisisnotaconstellationconducivetoconquest.Itismorelikelytoraisefearsof
encirclement.Eachofthesecountrieshasalongmilitarytraditionandwouldposeaformidableobstacleifits
territoryoritsabilitytoconductanindependentpolicywerethreatened.AmilitantChineseforeignpolicy
wouldenhancecooperationamongalloratleastsomeofthesenations,evokingChina'shistoricnightmare,as
happenedintheperiod200910.
DealingWithTheNewChina
AnotherreasonforChineserestraintinatleastthemediumtermisthedomesticadaptationthecountry
faces.ThegapinChinesesocietybetweenthelargelydevelopedcoastalregionsandtheundevelopedwestern
regionshasmadeHu'sobjectiveofa"harmonioussociety"bothcompellingandelusive.Culturalchanges
compoundthechallenge.Thenextdecadeswillwitness,forthefirsttime,thefullimpactofonechildfamilies
onadultChinesesociety.Thisisboundtomodifyculturalpatternsinasocietyinwhichlargefamilieshave
traditionallytakencareoftheagedandthehandicapped.Whenfourgrandparentscompetefortheattention
ofonechildandinvesthimwiththeaspirationsheretoforespreadacrossmanyoffspring,anewpatternof
insistentachievementandvast,perhapsunfulfillable,expectationsmayarise.
AllthesedevelopmentswillfurthercomplicatethechallengesofChina'sgovernmentaltransitionstartingin
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2012,inwhichthepresidencythevicepresidencytheconsiderablemajorityofthepositionsinChina's
Politburo,StateCouncil,andCentralMilitaryCommissionandthousandsofotherkeynationalandprovincial
postswillbestaffedwithnewappointees.Thenewleadershipgroupwillconsist,forthemostpart,ofmembers
ofthefirstChinesegenerationinacenturyandahalftohavelivedalltheirlivesinacountryatpeace.Its
primarychallengewillbefindingawaytodealwithasocietyrevolutionizedbychangingeconomicconditions,
unprecedentedandrapidlyexpandingtechnologiesofcommunication,atenuousglobaleconomy,andthe
migrationofhundredsofmillionsofpeoplefromChina'scountrysidetoitscities.Themodelofgovernment
thatemergeswilllikelybeasynthesisofmodernideasandtraditionalChinesepoliticalandculturalconcepts,
andthequestforthatsynthesiswillprovidetheongoingdramaofChina'sevolution.
ThesesocialandpoliticaltransformationsareboundtobefollowedwithinterestandhopeintheUnitedStates.
DirectAmericaninterventionwouldbeneitherwisenorproductive.TheUnitedStateswill,asitshould,
continuetomakeitsviewsknownonhumanrightsissuesandindividualcases.Anditsdaytodayconductwill
expressitsnationalpreferencefordemocraticprinciples.ButasystematicprojecttotransformChina's
institutionsbydiplomaticpressureandeconomicsanctionsislikelytobackfireandisolatetheveryliberalsitis
intendedtoassist.InChina,itwouldbeinterpretedbyaconsiderablemajoritythroughthelensof
nationalism,recallingearliererasofforeignintervention.
WhatthissituationcallsforisnotanabandonmentofAmericanvaluesbutadistinctionbetweentherealizable
andtheabsolute.TheU.S.Chineserelationshipshouldnotbeconsideredasazerosumgame,norcanthe
emergenceofaprosperousandpowerfulChinabeassumedinitselftobeanAmericanstrategicdefeat.
Acooperativeapproachchallengespreconceptionsonbothsides.TheUnitedStateshasfewprecedentsinits
nationalexperienceofrelatingtoacountryofcomparablesize,selfconfidence,economicachievement,and
internationalscopeandyetwithsuchadifferentcultureandpoliticalsystem.NordoeshistorysupplyChina
withprecedentsforhowtorelatetoafellowgreatpowerwithapermanentpresenceinAsia,avisionof
universalidealsnotgearedtowardChineseconceptions,andallianceswithseveralofChina'sneighbors.Prior
totheUnitedStates,allcountriesestablishingsuchapositiondidsoasapreludetoanattempttodominate
China.
Thesimplestapproachtostrategyistoinsistonoverwhelmingpotentialadversarieswithsuperiorresources
andmateriel.Butinthecontemporaryworld,thisisonlyrarelyfeasible.ChinaandtheUnitedStateswill
inevitablycontinueasenduringrealitiesforeachother.Neithercanentrustitssecuritytotheotherno
greatpowerdoes,forlongandeachwillcontinuetopursueitsowninterests,sometimesattherelative
expenseoftheother.Butbothhavetheresponsibilitytotakeintoaccounttheother'snightmares,andboth
woulddowelltorecognizethattheirrhetoric,asmuchastheiractualpolicies,canfeedintotheother's
suspicions.
China'sgreateststrategicfearisthatanoutsidepowerorpowerswillestablishmilitarydeploymentsaround
China'speripherycapableofencroachingonChina'sterritoryormeddlinginitsdomesticinstitutions.When
Chinadeemedthatitfacedsuchathreatinthepast,itwenttowarratherthanrisktheoutcomeofwhatit
sawasgatheringtrendsinKoreain1950,againstIndiain1962,alongthenorthernborderwiththeSoviet
Unionin1969,andagainstVietnamin1979.
TheUnitedStates'fear,sometimesonlyindirectlyexpressed,isofbeingpushedoutofAsiabyanexclusionary
bloc.TheUnitedStatesfoughtaworldwaragainstGermanyandJapantopreventsuchanoutcomeand
exercisedsomeofitsmostforcefulColdWardiplomacyunderadministrationsofbothpoliticalpartiestothis
endagainsttheSovietUnion.Inbothenterprises,itisworthnoting,substantialjointU.S.Chineseefforts
weredirectedagainsttheperceivedthreatofhegemony.
OtherAsiancountrieswillinsistontheirprerogativestodeveloptheircapacitiesfortheirownnationalreasons,
notaspartofacontestbetweenoutsidepowers.Theywillnotwillinglyconsignthemselvestoarevived
tributaryorder.NordotheyregardthemselvesaselementsinanAmericancontainmentpolicyoranAmerican
projecttoalterChina'sdomesticinstitutions.TheyaspiretogoodrelationswithbothChinaandtheUnited
Statesandwillresistanypressuretochoosebetweenthetwo.
Canthefearofhegemonyandthenightmareofmilitaryencirclementbereconciled?Isitpossibletofinda
spaceinwhichbothsidescanachievetheirultimateobjectiveswithoutmilitarizingtheirstrategies?Forgreat
nationswithglobalcapabilitiesanddivergent,evenpartlyconflictingaspirations,whatisthemarginbetween
conflictandabdication?
ThatChinawillhaveamajorinfluenceintheregionssurroundingitisinherentinitsgeography,values,and
history.Thelimitsofthatinfluence,however,willbeshapedbycircumstanceandpolicydecisions.Thesewill
determinewhetheraninevitablequestforinfluenceturnsintoadrivetonegateorexcludeotherindependent
sourcesofpower.
Fornearlytwogenerations,AmericanstrategyreliedonlocalregionaldefensebyAmericangroundforces
largelytoavoidthecatastrophicconsequencesofageneralnuclearwar.Inrecentdecades,congressionaland
publicopinionhaveimpelledanendtosuchcommitmentsinVietnam,Iraq,andAfghanistanNow,fiscal
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considerationsfurtherlimittherangeofsuchanapproach.Americanstrategyhasbeenredirectedfrom
defendingterritorytothreateningunacceptablepunishmentagainstpotentialaggressors.Thisrequiresforces
capableofrapidinterventionandglobalreach,butnotbasesringingChina'sfrontiers.WhatWashingtonmust
notdoiscombineadefensepolicybasedonbudgetaryrestraintswithadiplomacybasedonunlimited
ideologicalaims.
JustasChineseinfluenceinsurroundingcountriesmayspurfearsofdominance,soeffortstopursue
traditionalAmericannationalinterestscanbeperceivedasaformofmilitaryencirclement.Bothsidesmust
understandthenuancesbywhichapparentlytraditionalandapparentlyreasonablecoursescanevokethe
deepestworriesoftheother.Theyshouldseektogethertodefinethesphereinwhichtheirpeaceful
competitioniscircumscribed.Ifthatismanagedwisely,bothmilitaryconfrontationanddominationcanbe
avoidedifnot,escalatingtensionisinevitable.Itisthetaskofdiplomacytodiscoverthisspace,toexpanditif
possible,andtopreventtherelationshipfrombeingoverwhelmedbytacticalanddomesticimperatives.
CommunityOrConflict
ThecurrentworldorderwasbuiltlargelywithoutChineseparticipation,andhenceChinasometimesfeelsless
boundthanothersbyitsrules.WheretheorderdoesnotsuitChinesepreferences,Beijinghassetup
alternativearrangements,suchasintheseparatecurrencychannelsbeingestablishedwithBrazilandJapan
andothercountries.Ifthepatternbecomesroutineandspreadsintomanyspheresofactivity,competing
worldorderscouldevolve.Absentcommongoalscoupledwithagreedrulesofrestraint,institutionalizedrivalry
islikelytoescalatebeyondthecalculationsandintentionsofitsadvocates.Inanerainwhichunprecedented
offensivecapabilitiesandintrusivetechnologiesmultiply,thepenaltiesofsuchacoursecouldbedrasticand
perhapsirrevocable.
Crisismanagementwillnotbeenoughtosustainarelationshipsoglobalandbesetbysomanydiffering
pressureswithinandbetweenbothcountries,whichiswhyIhavearguedfortheconceptofaPacific
CommunityandexpressedthehopethatChinaandtheUnitedStatescangenerateasenseofcommon
purposeonatleastsomeissuesofgeneralconcern.Butthegoalofsuchacommunitycannotbereachedif
eithersideconceivesoftheenterpriseasprimarilyamoreeffectivewaytodefeatorunderminetheother.
NeitherChinanortheUnitedStatescanbesystematicallychallengedwithoutitsnoticing,andifsucha
challengeisnoted,itwillberesisted.Bothneedtocommitthemselvestogenuinecooperationandfindaway
tocommunicateandrelatetheirvisionstoeachotherandtotheworld.
Sometentativestepsinthatdirectionhavealreadybeenundertaken.Forexample,theUnitedStateshas
joinedseveralothercountriesinbeginningnegotiationsontheTransPacificPartnership(TPP),afreetrade
pactlinkingtheAmericaswithAsia.SuchanarrangementcouldbeasteptowardaPacificCommunitybecause
itwouldlowertradebarriersamongtheworld'smostproductive,dynamic,andresourcericheconomiesand
linkthetwosidesoftheoceaninsharedprojects.
ObamahasinvitedChinatojointheTPP.However,thetermsofaccessionaspresentedbyAmericanbriefers
andcommentatorshavesometimesseemedtorequirefundamentalchangesinChina'sdomesticstructure.To
theextentthatisthecase,theTPPcouldberegardedinBeijingaspartofastrategytoisolateChina.Forits
part,Chinahasputforwardcomparablealternativearrangements.Ithasnegotiatedatradepactwiththe
AssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsandhasbroachedaNortheastAsiantradepactwithJapanandSouth
Korea.
Importantdomesticpoliticalconsiderationsareinvolvedforallparties.ButifChinaandtheUnitedStatescome
toregardeachother'stradepacteffortsaselementsinastrategyofisolation,theAsiaPacificregioncould
devolveintocompetingadversarialpowerblocs.Ironically,thiswouldbeaparticularchallengeifChinameets
frequentAmericancallstoshiftfromanexportledtoaconsumptiondriveneconomy,asitsmostrecentfive
yearplancontemplates.SuchadevelopmentcouldreduceChina'sstakeintheUnitedStatesasanexport
marketevenasitencouragesotherAsiancountriestofurtherorienttheireconomiestowardChina.
ThekeydecisionfacingbothBeijingandWashingtoniswhethertomovetowardagenuineeffortat
cooperationorfallintoanewversionofhistoricpatternsofinternationalrivalry.Bothcountrieshaveadopted
therhetoricofcommunity.Theyhaveevenestablishedahighlevelforumforit,theStrategicandEconomic
Dialogue,whichmeetstwiceayear.Ithasbeenproductiveonimmediateissues,butitisstillinthefoothillsof
itsultimateassignmenttoproduceatrulyglobaleconomicandpoliticalorder.Andifaglobalorderdoesnot
emergeintheeconomicfield,barrierstoprogressonmoreemotionalandlesspositivesumissues,suchas
territoryandsecurity,maygrowinsurmountable.
TheRisksOfRhetoric
Astheypursuethisprocess,bothsidesneedtorecognizetheimpactofrhetoriconperceptionsand
calculations.AmericanleadersoccasionallylaunchbroadsidesagainstChina,includingspecificproposalsfor
adversarialpolicies,asdomesticpoliticalnecessities.Thisoccursevenperhapsespeciallywhenamoderate
policyistheultimateintention.Theissueisnotspecificcomplaints,whichshouldbedealtwithonthemerits
oftheissue,butattacksonthebasicmotivationsofChinesepolicy,suchasdeclaringChinaastrategic
adversary.Thetargetoftheseattacksisboundtoaskwhetherdomesticimperativesrequiringaffirmationsof
hostilitywillsoonerorlaterrequirehostileactions.Bythesametoken,threateningChinesestatements,
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includingthoseinthesemiofficialpress,arelikelytobeinterpretedintermsoftheactionstheyimply,
whateverthedomesticpressuresortheintentthatgeneratedthem.
TheAmericandebate,onbothsidesofthepoliticaldivide,oftendescribesChinaasa"risingpower"thatwill
needto"mature"andlearnhowtoexerciseresponsibilityontheworldstage.China,however,seesitselfnot
asarisingpowerbutasareturningone,predominantinitsregionfortwomillenniaandtemporarilydisplaced
bycolonialexploiterstakingadvantageofChinesedomesticstrifeanddecay.Itviewstheprospectofastrong
Chinaexercisinginfluenceineconomic,cultural,political,andmilitaryaffairsnotasanunnaturalchallengeto
worldorderbutratherasareturntonormality.AmericansneednotagreewitheveryaspectoftheChinese
analysistounderstandthatlecturingacountrywithahistoryofmillenniaaboutitsneedto"growup"and
behave"responsibly"canbeneedlesslygrating.
OntheChineseside,proclamationsatthegovernmentalandtheinformallevelthatChinaintendsto"revive
theChinesenation"toitstraditionaleminencecarrydifferentimplicationsinsideChinaandabroad.Chinais
rightlyproudofitsrecentstridesinrestoringitssenseofnationalpurposefollowingwhatitseesasacentury
ofhumiliation.YetfewothercountriesinAsiaarenostalgicforanerawhentheyweresubjecttoChinese
suzerainty.Asrecentveteransofanticolonialstruggles,mostAsiancountriesareextremelysensitiveto
maintainingtheirindependenceandfreedomofactionvisvisanyoutsidepower,whetherWesternorAsian.
Theyseektobeinvolvedinasmanyoverlappingspheresofeconomicandpoliticalactivityaspossiblethey
inviteanAmericanroleintheregionbutseekequilibrium,notacrusadeorconfrontation.
TheriseofChinaislesstheresultofitsincreasedmilitarystrengththanoftheUnitedStates'owndeclining
competitiveposition,drivenbyfactorssuchasobsolescentinfrastructure,inadequateattentiontoresearch
anddevelopment,andaseeminglydysfunctionalgovernmentalprocess.TheUnitedStatesshouldaddress
theseissueswithingenuityanddeterminationinsteadofblamingaputativeadversary.Itmusttakecarenot
torepeatinitsChinapolicythepatternofconflictsenteredwithvastpublicsupportandbroadgoalsbutended
whentheAmericanpoliticalprocessinsistedonastrategyofextricationthatamountedtoanabandonment,if
notacompletereversal,ofthecountry'sproclaimedobjectives.
ChinacanfindreassuranceinitsownrecordofenduranceandinthefactthatnoU.S.administrationhasever
soughttoaltertherealityofChinaasoneoftheworld'smajorstates,economies,andcivilizations.Americans
woulddowelltorememberthatevenwhenChina'sGDPisequaltothatoftheUnitedStates,itwillneedtobe
distributedoverapopulationthatisfourtimesaslarge,aging,andengagedincomplexdomestic
transformationsoccasionedbyChina'sgrowthandurbanization.Thepracticalconsequenceisthatagreatdeal
ofChina'senergywillstillbedevotedtodomesticneeds.
Bothsidesshouldbeopentoconceivingofeachother'sactivitiesasanormalpartofinternationallifeandnot
inthemselvesasacauseforalarm.Theinevitabletendencytoimpingeoneachothershouldnotbeequated
withaconsciousdrivetocontainordominate,solongasbothcanmaintainthedistinctionandcalibratetheir
actionsaccordingly.ChinaandtheUnitedStateswillnotnecessarilytranscendtheordinaryoperationofgreat
powerrivalry.Buttheyoweittothemselves,andtheworld,tomakeanefforttodoso.
HENRYA.KISSINGERisChairofKissingerAssociatesandaformerU.S.SecretaryofStateandNational
SecurityAdviser.Thisessayisadaptedfromtheafterwordtotheforthcomingpaperbackeditionofhislatest
book,OnChina(Penguin,2012).
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