5/31/2015

HenryA.Kissinger

HENRYA.KISSINGER
ARTICLES
THEPERILS OFINTERVENTION INSYRIA
BYHENRYA.KISSINGER

TheWashingtonPostJune3,2012
TheArabSpringisgenerallydiscussedintermsoftheprospectsfordemocracy.Equallysignificantisthe
increasingappealmostrecentlyinSyriaofoutsideinterventiontobringaboutregimechange,
overturningprevalentnotionsofinternationalorder.
Themodernconceptofworldorderarosein1648fromtheTreatyofWestphalia,whichendedtheThirtyYears
War.Inthatconflict,competingdynastiessentarmiesacrosspoliticalborderstoimposetheirconflicting
religiousnorms.This17thcenturyversionofregimechangekilledperhapsathirdofthepopulationofCentral
Europe.
Topreventarepetitionofthiscarnage,theTreatyofWestphaliaseparatedinternationalfromdomesticpolitics.
States,builtonnationalandculturalunits,weredeemedsovereignwithintheirbordersinternationalpolitics
wasconfinedtotheirinteractionacrossestablishedboundaries.Forthefounders,thenewconceptsofnational
interestandbalanceofpoweramountedtoalimitation,notanexpansion,oftheroleofforceitsubstituted
thepreservationofequilibriumfortheforcedconversionofpopulations.
TheWestphaliansystemwasspreadbyEuropeandiplomacyaroundtheworld.Thoughstrainedbythetwo
worldwarsandtheadventofinternationalcommunism,thesovereignnationstatesurvived,tenuously,as
thebasicunitofinternationalorder.
TheWestphaliansystemneverappliedfullytotheMiddleEast.OnlythreeoftheregionsMuslimstateshada
historicalbasis:Turkey,EgyptandIran.Thebordersoftheothersreflectedadivisionofthespoilsofthe
defunctOttomanEmpireamongthevictorsofWorldWar?I,withminimalregardforethnicorsectarian
divisions.Thesebordershavesincebeensubjectedtorepeatedchallenge,oftenmilitary.
ThediplomacygeneratedbytheArabSpringreplacesWestphalianprinciplesofequilibriumwithageneralized
doctrineofhumanitarianintervention.Inthiscontext,civilconflictsareviewedinternationallythroughprisms
ofdemocraticorsectarianconcerns.Outsidepowersdemandthattheincumbentgovernmentnegotiatewith
itsopponentsforthepurposeoftransferringpower.Butbecause,forbothsides,theissueisgenerallysurvival,
theseappealsusuallyfallondeafears.Wherethepartiesareofcomparablestrength,somedegreeofoutside
intervention,includingmilitaryforce,istheninvokedtobreakthedeadlock.
Thisformofhumanitarianinterventiondistinguishesitselffromtraditionalforeignpolicybyeschewingappeals
tonationalinterestorbalanceofpowerrejectedaslackingamoraldimension.Itjustifiesitselfnotby
overcomingastrategicthreatbutbyremovingconditionsdeemedaviolationofuniversalprinciplesof
governance.
Ifadoptedasaprincipleofforeignpolicy,thisformofinterventionraisesbroaderquestionsforU.S.strategy.
DoesAmericaconsideritselfobligedtosupporteverypopularuprisingagainstanynondemocratic
government,includingthoseheretoforeconsideredimportantinsustainingtheinternationalsystem?Is,for
example,SaudiArabiaanallyonlyuntilpublicdemonstrationsdeveloponitsterritory?Arewepreparedto
concedetootherstatestherighttointerveneelsewhereonbehalfofcoreligionistsorethnickin?
Atthesametime,traditionalstrategicimperativeshavenotdisappeared.Regimechange,almostbydefinition,
generatesanimperativefornationbuilding.Failingthat,theinternationalorderitselfbeginstodisintegrate.
Blankspacesdenotinglawlessnessmaycometodominatethemap,ashasalreadyoccurredinYemen,
Somalia,northernMali,LibyaandnorthwesternPakistan,andmayyethappeninSyria.Thecollapseofthe
statemayturnitsterritoryintoabaseforterrorismorarmssupplyagainstneighborswho,intheabsenceof
anycentralauthority,willhavenomeanstocounteractthem.
InSyria,callsforhumanitarianandstrategicinterventionmerge.AttheheartoftheMuslimworld,Syriahas,
underBasharalAssad,assistedIransstrategyintheLevantandMediterranean.ItsupportedHamas,which
rejectstheIsraelistate,andHezbollah,whichunderminesLebanonscohesion.TheUnitedStateshasstrategic
aswellashumanitarianreasonstofavorthefallofAssadandtoencourageinternationaldiplomacytothat
end.Ontheotherhand,noteverystrategicinterestrisestoacauseforwarwereitotherwise,noroomwould
beleftfordiplomacy.
Asmilitaryforceisconsidered,severalunderlyingissuesmustbeaddressed:WhiletheUnitedStates
accelerateswithdrawalsfrommilitaryinterventionsinneighboringIraqandAfghanistan,howcananew
militarycommitmentinthesameregionbejustified,particularlyonelikelytofacesimilarchallenges?Doesthe
newapproachlessexplicitlystrategicandmilitary,andgearedmoretowarddiplomaticandmoralissues
http://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/wp060312.html

1/2

5/31/2015

HenryA.Kissinger

solvethedilemmasthatplaguedearliereffortsinIraqorAfghanistan,whichendedinwithdrawalandadivided
America?OrdoesitcompoundthedifficultybystakingU.S.prestigeandmoraleondomesticoutcomesthat
Americahasevenfewermeansandlessleveragetoshape?Whoreplacestheoustedleadership,andwhatdo
weknowaboutit?Willtheoutcomeimprovethehumanconditionandthesecuritysituation?Ordowerisk
repeatingtheexperiencewiththeTaliban,armedbyAmericatofighttheSovietinvaderbutthenturnedintoa
securitychallengetous?
Thedifferencebetweenstrategicandhumanitarianinterventionbecomesrelevant.Theworldcommunity
defineshumanitarianinterventionbyconsensus,sodifficulttoachievethatitgenerallylimitstheeffort.On
theotherhand,interventionthatisunilateralorbasedonacoalitionofthewillingevokestheresistanceof
countriesfearingtheapplicationofthepolicytotheirterritories(suchasChinaandRussia).Henceitismore
difficulttoachievedomesticsupportforit.Thedoctrineofhumanitarianinterventionisindangerofbeing
suspendedbetweenitsmaximsandtheabilitytoimplementthemunilateralintervention,bycontrast,comes
atthepriceofinternationalanddomesticsupport.
Militaryintervention,humanitarianorstrategic,hastwoprerequisites:First,aconsensusongovernanceafter
theoverthrowofthestatusquoiscritical.Iftheobjectiveisconfinedtodeposingaspecificruler,anewcivil
warcouldfollowintheresultingvacuum,asarmedgroupscontestthesuccession,andoutsidecountries
choosedifferentsides.Second,thepoliticalobjectivemustbeexplicitandachievableinadomestically
sustainabletimeperiod.IdoubtthattheSyrianissuemeetsthesetests.Wecannotaffordtobedrivenfrom
expedienttoexpedientintoundefinedmilitaryinvolvementinaconflicttakingonanincreasinglysectarian
character.Inreactingtoonehumantragedy,wemustbecarefulnottofacilitateanother.Intheabsenceofa
clearlyarticulatedstrategicconcept,aworldorderthaterodesbordersandmergesinternationalandcivilwars
cannevercatchitsbreath.Asenseofnuanceisneededtogiveperspectivetotheproclamationofabsolutes.
Thisisanonpartisanissue,anditshouldbetreatedinthatmannerinthenationaldebateweareentering.
2012TribuneMediaServices
BacktoRecentArticles
2013HenryA.KissingerphotocreditJrgenFrank

http://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/wp060312.html

2/2