Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Director
LVARO ENRIQUE RODRGUEZ PEZ
Ingeniero Civil
Nota de aceptacin
______________________________________
______________________________________
______________________________________
______________________________________
Director de Investigacin
Ing. lvaro Enrique Rodrguez Pez
______________________________________
Asesor Metodolgico
Ing. Juan Carlos Ruge Crdenas
______________________________________
Jurado
CONTENIDO
pg.
INTRODUCCIN
12
1.
1.1
1.2
1.2.1
1.2.2
1.3
1.3.1
1.3.2
1.4
1.5
1.5.1
1.5.2
1.5.3
1.5.4
1.6
1.6.1
1.6.1.1
1.6.1.2
1.6.1.3
1.6.1.4
1.6.1.5
1.6.1.6
1.7
1.7.1
1.7.2
1.7.2.1
1.7.2.2
1.7.2.3
GENERALIDADES
ANTECEDENTES
PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA
Descripcin del problema
Formulacin del Problema
OBJETIVOS
Objetivo general
Objetivos especficos
JUSTIFICACIN
DELIMITACIN
Espacio
Tiempo
Contenido
Alcance
MARCO REFERENCIAL
Marco terico y conceptual
Recopilacin de informacin
Grficas
Canales abiertos y sus propiedades
Geometra de un canal abierto
Caractersticas de un canal abierto
Caractersticas hidrulicas de una seccin de canal
METODOLOGA
Tipo de Estudio
Fuentes de Informacin
Consultas
Manejo de software
Requisitos
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
17
18
18
19
20
25
25
25
25
25
26
2.
2.1
2.2
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
DISEO METODOLGICO
INFORMACIN GENERAL DE LAS ESTACIONES EN ESTUDIO
ANLISIS Y EVALUACIN DE LOS CAUDALES EXISTENTES
Distribucin Gumbel o extrema tipo I
Mtodo de mxima verosimilitud
Mtodo de los momentos
27
27
31
31
33
33
pg.
3.
CONCLUSIONES
48
BIBLIOGRAFA
49
ANEXOS
50
LISTA DE TABLAS
pg.
Tabla 1.
Tabla 2.
Tabla 3.
Tabla 4.
Tabla 5.
Tabla 6.
Tabla 7.
Tabla 8.
Tabla 9.
Tabla 10.
Tabla 11.
Tabla 12.
Tabla 13.
Tabla 14.
Tabla 15.
Tabla 16.
Tabla 17.
Tabla 18.
Tabla 19.
Tabla 20.
16
23
34
35
35
36
36
37
38
38
39
39
39
40
41
41
42
43
43
44
pg.
Tabla 21.
Tabla 22.
Tabla 23.
Tabla 24.
Tabla 25.
Tabla 26.
44
45
45
46
46
47
LISTA DE FIGURAS
pg.
Figura 1.
Figura 2.
Figura 3.
Figura 4.
22
24
24
25
LISTA DE ANEXOS
pg.
Anexo A.
Anexo B.
50
138
GLOSARIO
ALERTA: mensaje meteorolgico que se emite con el propsito de comunicar
sobre una posible situacin adversa para un rea, haciendo salvedad de que las
personas deben estar preparadas para el momento de llegada de la situacin.
CAUDAL: volumen de agua que pasa a travs de una seccin transversal del ro
en la unidad de tiempo, se expresa en metros cbicos por segundo m3/s o litros
por segundos.
CUENCA HIDROGRFICA: es un rea de terreno que drena agua en un punto
comn, como un riachuelo, arroyo, ro o lago cercano. Cada cuenca pequea
drena agua en una cuenca mayor que, eventualmente, desemboca en el ocano.
ESTACION HIDROLGICA: es el lugar de observacin en el cual se obtienen
datos sobre el agua de ros, lagos o embalses. En una estacin hidrolgica se
deber observar uno o ms de los elementos; tales como caudal, depsito de
sedimentos, temperatura entre otras.
PRECIPITACIN: son elementos lquidos o slidos procedentes de la
condensacin del vapor de agua que caen de las nubes o son depositados desde
el aire en el suelo.
SMADA: es un programa para hidrologa producido por la Universidad Central de
Florida, que incluye en forma separada varios archivos ejecutables. Es posible
construir hidrogramas, diseo de embalses, anlisis estadstico de la distribucin
de lluvias y clculos de regresin entre otros.
INTRODUCCIN
El Instituto de Hidrologa, Meteorologa y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM)
direccionado a renovar sus bases de datos, otorgara datos hidrolgicos de 28
estaciones de monitoreo en la extensin de la cuenca del ro Magdalena, para
realizar el estudio de parmetros hidrulicos que permitan desarrollar umbrales de
anlisis generando los correspondientes niveles de alerta; parmetros hidrolgicos
con el objetivo de establecer la regularidad de eventos, ya sean mnimos para
periodos de sequa o mximos que generen crecientes inesperadas; los cuales
redefinan los caudales y periodos de retornos.
Todas las anteriores actividades se desarrollaran bajo los protocolos e informacin
otorgada por el instituto para realizar el respectivo anlisis de los 28 puntos de
monitoreo en la extensin de la cuenca, obteniendo de esta manera caudales de
diseo para tiempos de retornos especificados con ayuda de los software HYFA y
SMADA; los cuales otorgaran estudios confiables para posibles proyectos de
investigacin, mitigacin y prevencin futura; as como la toma de decisiones para
usuarios del IDEAM, como para usuarios independientes, tales como como
Gobernadores, Alcaldes, Organismos de socorro entre otros.
12
1. GENERALIDADES
1.1 ANTECEDENTES
En los 1540 metros de extensin total del ro Magdalena se encuentran diferentes
zonas de alertas debido a las crecientes del mismo ro, es por esto que el IDEAM
desea adelantar ste estudio; por medio del cual se espera presentar en forma
gil, y rpida, los correspondientes estudios que generen los niveles de alerta para
la cuenca en mencin, los cuales sern de gran importancia para todo el pas, ya
que sta informacin estar ligada con los fenmenos El Nio (o sequas) o La
Nia (inundaciones) y con la consecuente emisin de alertas, las cuales servirn
para proteger vidas y reducir el impacto econmico.
Para determinar estos niveles de alerta se debe realizar estudios tanto
hidrolgicos como hidrulicos de la cuenca del ro. Esta est dividida en tres
secciones Magdalena alto, medio y bajo; dentro de las investigaciones previas a la
realizacin del presente trabajo se identifican fcilmente estudios hidrolgicos
actualizados para la seccin baja de la cuenca del ro Magdalena; como lo son los
publicados
en
el
portal
del
IDEAM
(www.ideam.gov.co)
http://www.pronosticosyalertas.gov.co/jsp/751 y en el Sistema Nacional para la
Gestin
del
Riesgo
de
Desastres
SIGPAD
(http://www.sigpad.gov.co/sigpad/archivos.aspx?idc=50),
en
particular
el
documento Plan Departamental de Gestin de Riesgo Atlntico , en el cual se
especifican los niveles de alerta presentados por la creciente del ro Magdalena de
los ltimos aos en esta regin.
1.2 PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA
1.2.1 Descripcin del problema. LaTemporada invernal en Colombia; refirindose
a la temporada invernal (coloquialismo para Estacin lluviosa) en Colombia. Estas
temporadas producen fuertes aguaceros que causan inundaciones en diferentes
zonas de Colombia. La situacin se origina debido a las abundantes lluvias
provocadas por depresiones tropicales; y frentes clidos propios de la poca
hmeda, ocasionados por el fenmeno de La Nia.
Los torrenciales aguaceros, chubascos, vendavales; e indisposiciones
atmosfricas como cielos parcial y totalmente nublados, tormentas elctricas y
lloviznas frecuentes, se presentan desde el mes de junio y se hicieron ms fuertes
en agosto y septiembre, generando problemas de damnificados e insalubridad.
Con posibles extensiones de tiempo.
El gobierno actual del presidente Juan Manuel Santos declar la "Emergencia
Econmica, Social y Ecolgica" y la "situacin de Desastre", para afrontar la grave
emergencia producidas por las inundaciones y los deslizamientos que ocasionaron
las lluvias en Colombia.
13
14
1.5 DELIMITACIN
1.5.1 Espacio. El estudio de caracterizacin tanto hidrulica como hidrolgica se
desarrollara para toda la cuenca del ro Magdalena seleccionando 28 estaciones
de las cuales, dos (Paicol, Hacienda Venecia) pertenecen al afluente del embalse
de Betania; y dos ms (Montelbano, Puerto Libertador) que pertenecen al afluente
del ro Cauca.
1.5.2 Tiempo. El tiempo est determinado por el cronograma establecido
previamente, el cual es anexo bajo un documento generado en Project,
presentado en PDF.
1.5.3 Contenido. Los datos de estas 28 estaciones a trabajar sobre la cuenca del
ro Magdalena, sern otorgados por el IDEAM; los cuales son satelitales que se
procesan bajo el software HYDRAS 3, y convencionales que son suministrados
por personal cerca a las respectivas estaciones que realizan el proceso de
compilacin de la informacin dos veces al da; acto seguido los datos entran a
una matriz denominada RADIO para ser analizada.
1.5.4 Alcance. El objetivo del estudio se lograra mediante la recopilacin,
sistematizacin, procesamiento y anlisis de informacin secundaria disponible
mediante la base de datos del Instituto de Hidrologa, Meteorologa y Estudios
Ambientales (IDEAM) para cada una de las estaciones en estudio, analizando los
datos mediante programas asistidos por ordenadores tales como AutoCAD, HYFA,
SMADA, SGWIN ArcGis, entre otros, por lo tanto los estudios de la caracterizacin
hidrulica e hidrolgica estarn sujetos a la calidad y cantidad de la informacin
base.
Se debe tener en cuenta que la ocurrencia de crecidas de los ros se describe en
trminos probabilsticos, es decir cada estudio generado va asociado a una
probabilidad de ocurrencia, a su vez se manejaran periodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10,
20 y 50 aos con el fin de proporcionar datos coherentes y de mayor exactitud.
15
DATOS ESTACIN
CORRIENTE
NOMBRE
MUNICIPIO
DEPARTAMENTO
MAGDALENA
ANGOSTURAS
Natagaima
Tolima
MAGDALENA
ARRANCAPLUMAS
Honda
Tolima
MAGDALENA
PUENTE BALSEADERO
Agrado
Huila
MAGDALENA
BARRANCABERMEJA
Barrancabermeja
Santander
MAGDALENA
CALAMAR
Calamar
Bolvar
NARE
CANTERAS
La Magdalena
Antioquia
MAGDALENA
EL BANCO
El Banco
Magdalena
SUMAPZ
EL PROFUNDO
Cabrera
Cundinamarca
SOGAMOSO
CANAL DEL
DIQUE
EL TABLAZO
Betulia
Santander
GAMBOTE
Arjona
Bolvar
11
YAGUAR
HACIENDA VENECIA
Yaguar
Huila
12
LA MIEL
Marquetalia
Caldas
13
BZO DE LOBA
Magangu
Bolvar
14
SAN JORGE
RIO LA MIEL
MAGANGUEESPERANZA
MONTELBANO
Montelbano
Crdoba
15
MAGDALENA
NARIO
Nario
Cundinamarca
16
PEZ
PAICOL
Tesalia
Huila
17
SALDAA
PIEDRAS DE COBRE
Ortega
Tolima
18
MAGDALENA
PUENTE SANTANDER
Palermo
Huila
19
CARARE
PUERTO ARAJO
Cimitarra
Santander
20
MAGDALENA
PUERTO BERRO
Puerto Berro
Antioquia
10
16
OBSERVACIONES
Afluente al embalse de
Betania.
Afluente al embalse de
Betania.
Aguas abajo del embalse de
Betania.
DATOS ESTACIN
OBSERVACIONES
CORRIENTE
NOMBRE
MUNICIPIO
DEPARTAMENTO
21
MAGDALENA
PUERTO SALGAR
Puerto Salgar
Cundinamarca
22
MAGDALENA
PURIFICACIN
Purificacin
Tolima
23
MAGDALENA
SAN PABLO
San Pablo
Bolvar
24
SAN PEDRO
PUERTO LIBERTADOR
Puerto Libertador
Crdoba
25
MAGDALENA
GAMARRA
Gamarra
Cesar
No hay caudales
26
MAGDALENA
PLATO
Plato
Magdalena
No hay caudales
27
MAGDALENA
PUERTO WILCHES
Puerto Wilches
Santander
No hay caudales
28
MAGDALENA
SAN PEDRITO
Sun
Atlntico
No hay caudales
17
18
19
20
En el diseo es comn el uso de bordes libres que varan desde menos del 5% a
ms del 30% de la profundidad del flujo. Para canaletas metlicas con interiores
suaves y semicirculares, colocadas en tangentes que conducen el agua a
velocidades no mayores que el 80% de la velocidad critica en un mximo de 8
pies/s, la experiencia indica que un borde libre del 6% del dimetro de la canaleta
debera ser utilizado. Para canaletas en curvas de alta velocidad o de flexiones,
se producir accin de ondas; luego el borde libre debe incrementarse para
prevenir que el agua se desborde.
Ecuacin de Manning. En 1889 el ingeniero Irlands Robert Manning, presento
una ecuacin la cual se modific ms adelante hasta llegar a la forma actual. Esta
ecuacin es:
V=
1.49
R 2 / 3 S1 / 2
21
Donde:
V:
R:
S:
C:
velocidad media
radio hidrulico
pendiente de la lnea de energa
factor de resistencia del flujo, llamado C de Chzy
Chzy establece que la fuerza resistente al flujo por unidad de rea del lecho de
la corriente es proporcional al cuadrado de la velocidad; es decir es fuerza es igual
2
a KV donde K es una constante de proporcionalidad. la superficie de contacto del
flujo con el lecho de la corriente es igual al producto del permetro mojado y la
longitud del tramo del canal, o PL , la fuerza total resistiendo al flujo es entonces
2
igual a KV PL.
Figura 1. Propiedades geomtricas de los canales abiertos.
22
TR
(aos)
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
Fuente. Autores.
Realizar grficas histricas para determinar los eventos crticos (mximos
absolutos para crecientes sbitas y mnimos absolutos para sequas).
Posteriormente se realizan estudios en los cuales se determinan los umbrales que
pueden generar inundaciones (o sequas), generando graficas de tiempo vs
precipitacin las cuales se compararan con niveles de alerta histricos
suministrados por el Instituto de Hidrologa, Meteorologa y Estudios Ambientales
(IDEAM) tanto para las estaciones convencionales como las satelitales.
En las siguientes figuras se presenta la comparacin del SAT (Sistemas de Alerta
Temprana) actual sobre el cual se desea realizar los estudios de caracterizacin
hidrolgica e hidrulica sobre la base de estaciones (para el ejemplo en
Arrancaplumas, Honda Tolima.), sitio en el cual se tiene monitoreo convencional
y satelital.
23
9.0
10
8.0
20
7.0
30
6.0
40
5.0
50
4.0
60
3.0
70
2.0
80
1.0
90
0.0
12/08
13/08
14/08
15/08
16/08
17/08
18/08
19/08
Precipitacion (mm)
Nivel (m)
100
20/08
21/08
Fecha (DD/M/AA)
24
25
de los
26
2. DISEO METODOLGICO
2.1 INFORMACIN GENERAL DE LAS ESTACIONES EN ESTUDIO
Los datos nombrados a continuacin fueron suministrados por el Instituto de
Hidrologa, Meteorologa y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM).
Elevacin: 075 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Santander
Municipio: Barrancabermeja
Corriente: Magdalena
ANGOSTURAS:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 21137050
Fecha de instalacin: ENE-1975
Latitud: 0326 N
Longitud: 7507 W
Elevacin: 340 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Tolima
Municipio: Natagaima
Corriente: Magdalena
CALAMAR:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 29037020
Fecha de instalacin: JUL-1940
Latitud: 1015 N
Longitud: 7454 W
Elevacin: 008 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Bolvar
Municipio: Calamar
Corriente: Magdalena
ARRANCAPLUMAS:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 21237020
Fecha de instalacin: ENE-1934
Latitud: 0512 N
Longitud: 7443 W
Elevacin: 203 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Tolima
Municipio: Honda
Corriente: Magdalena
CANTERAS:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 23087210
Fecha de instalacin: JUL-1973
Latitud: 0616 N
Longitud: 7440 W
Elevacin: 127 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Antioquia
Municipio: La Magdalena
Corriente: Nare
PUENTE BALSEADERO:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 21047010
Fecha de instalacin: SEP-1971
Latitud: 0213 N
Longitud: 7538 W
Elevacin: 688 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Huila
Municipio: Agrado
Corriente: Magdalena
BARRANCABERMEJA:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 23157030
Fecha de instalacin: JUN-1936
Latitud: 0703 N
Longitud: 7352 W
EL BANCO:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 25027020
Fecha de instalacin: ENE-1934
Latitud: 0859 N
Longitud: 7358 W
Elevacin: 029 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Magdalena
Municipio: El Banco
Corriente: Magdalena
27
EL PROFUNDO:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 21197010
Fecha de instalacin: ABR-1954
Latitud: 0401 N
Longitud: 7430 W
Elevacin: 1860 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Cundinamarca
Municipio: Cabrera
Corriente: Sumapz
LA MIEL:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 23057120
Fecha de instalacin: SEP-1971
Latitud: 0520 N
Longitud: 7503 W
Elevacin: 1560 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Caldas
Municipio: Marquetalia
Corriente: La Miel
EL TABLAZO:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 24067010
Fecha de instalacin: SEP-1958
Latitud: 0702 N
Longitud: 7320 W
Elevacin: 192 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Santander
Municipio: Betulia
Corriente: Sogamoso
MAGANGUE-ESPERANZA:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 25027680
Fecha de instalacin: SEP-1967
Latitud: 0915 N
Longitud: 7444 W
Elevacin: 18 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Bolivar
Municipio: Magangue
Corriente: Brazo de Loba
GAMBOTE:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 29037080
Fecha de instalacin: ENE-1959
Latitud: 1009 N
Longitud: 7517 W
Elevacin: 004 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Bolvar
Municipio: Arjona
Corriente: Canal del Dique
MONTELBANO:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 25017010
Fecha de instalacin: ABR-1973
Latitud: 0759 N
Longitud: 7525 W
Elevacin: 039 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Crdoba
Municipio: Montelbano
Corriente: San Jorge
HACIENDA VENECIA:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 21087080
Fecha de instalacin: JUN-1983
Latitud: 0238 N
Longitud: 7532 W
Elevacin: 575 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Huila
Municipio: Yaguar
Corriente: Yaguar
NARIO:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 21237010
Fecha de instalacin: AGO-1977
Latitud: 0423 N
Longitud: 7450 W
Elevacin: 252 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Cundinamarca
Municipio: Nario
Corriente: Magdalena
28
PAICOL:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 21057060
Fecha de instalacin: JUL-1971
Latitud: 0227 N
Longitud: 7545 W
Elevacin: 788 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Huila
Municipio: Tesalia
Corriente: Pez
PUERTO BERRO:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 23097030
Fecha de instalacin: ENE-1936
Latitud: 0629 N
Longitud: 7424 W
Elevacin: 111 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Antioquia
Municipio: Puerto Berro
Corriente: Magdalena
PIEDRAS DE COBRE
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 22057010
Fecha de instalacin: SEP-1959
Latitud: 0354 N
Longitud: 7506 W
Elevacin: 316 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Tolima
Municipio: Ortega
Corriente: Saldaa
PUERTO SALGAR:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 23037010
Fecha de instalacin: ENE-1936
Latitud: 0528 N
Longitud: 7439 W
Elevacin: 172 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Cundinamarca
Municipio: Puerto Salgar
Corriente: Magdalena
PUENTE SANTANDER:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 21097070
Fecha de instalacin: SEP-1960
Latitud: 0256 N
Longitud: 7518 W
Elevacin: 431 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Huila
Municipio: Palermo
Corriente: Magdalena
PURIFICACIN:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 21137010
Fecha de instalacin: NOV-1959
Latitud: 0350 N
Longitud: 7456 W
Elevacin: 291 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Tolima
Municipio: Purificacin
Corriente: Magdalena
PUERTO ARAJO:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 23127020
Fecha de instalacin: OCT-1965
Latitud: 0631 N
Longitud: 7405 W
Elevacin: 092 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Santander
Municipio: Cimitarra
Corriente: Carare
SAN PABLO:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 23207040
Fecha de instalacin: JUL-1977
Latitud: 0728 N
Longitud: 7355 W
Elevacin: 062 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Bolvar
Municipio: San Pablo
Corriente: Magdalena
Municipio: Caldas
Corriente: Quebrada la miel
29
SAN PEDRITO
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 29047070
Fecha de instalacin: MAY-1978
Latitud: 1016 N
Longitud: 7454 W
Elevacin: 008 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Atlntico
Municipio: Sun
Corriente: Magdalena
SAN
PEDRO
(PUERTO
LIBERTADOR):
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 25017020
Fecha de instalacin: MAY-1989
Latitud: 0751 N
Longitud: 7542 W
Elevacin: 050 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Crdoba
Municipio: Puerto Libertador
Corriente: San Pedro
GAMARRA:
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 23217020
Fecha de instalacin: ENE-1972
Latitud: 0819 N
Longitud: 7344 W
Elevacin: 040 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Cesar
Municipio: Gamarra
Corriente: Magdalena
PLATO
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 25027450
Fecha de instalacin: AGO-1964
Latitud: 0947 N
Longitud: 7447 W
Elevacin: 016 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Magdalena
Municipio: Plato
Corriente: Magdalena
PUERTO WILCHES
Fecha de proceso: 2013/08/26
Estacin: 23187010
Fecha de instalacin: ENE-1934
Latitud: 0720 N
Longitud: 7354 W
Elevacin: 066 m.s.n.m.
Departamento: Santander
Municipio: Puerto Wilches
Corriente: Magdalena
30
Funcin de densidad:
Estimacin de parmetros:
31
Donde
Factor de frecuencia:
Limites de confianza.
Xt t(1-a) Se
KT = 3.14
QTr100 = 15 + 3.14*5
QTr100 = 30.7 m3/s
Intervalos de confianza.
32
d = 3.93
Xt t(1-a) Se
30.7 m3/s (1.64) (3.58)
[24.83 m3/s
36.58 m3/s]
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
1.503,780
1.591,118
1.673,055
1.776,651
1.917,643
2.249,270
2.695,466
2.990,886
3.274,261
3.364,151
3.641,060
3.915,925
4.076,205
4.189,786
1.525,934
1.610,198
1.689,250
1.789,200
1.925,228
2.245,181
2.675,669
2.960,690
3.234,089
3.320,814
3.587,975
3.853,164
4.007,801
4.117,384
1.606,907
1.510,908
1.790,257
1.685,995
1.932,601
2.263,385
2.708,446
3.003,115
3.285,769
3.375,431
3.651,637
3.925,802
4.066,449
4.198,967
Fuente. Autores.
34
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
2.635,296
2.728,851
2.816,620
2.927,590
3.078,618
3.433,850
3.911,805
4.228,254
4.531,798
4.628,087
4.924,706
5.219,135
5.390,824
5.512,490
2.548,738
2.652,857
2.750,536
2.874,036
3.042,117
3.437,460
3.969,385
4.321,565
4.659,384
4.766,545
5.096,658
5.424,332
5.615,407
5.750,811
2.719,269
2.812,538
2.889,377
2.990,674
3.128,969
3.450,345
3.882,749
4.169,038
4.443,653
4.530,765
4.799,115
5.065,483
5.202,130
5.330,880
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 5. Caudales proyectados estacin Balseadero, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
819,570
882,791
942,102
1.017,091
1.119,150
1.359,202
1.682,187
1.896,030
2.101,155
2.166,223
2.366,667
2.565,631
800,335
866,168
927,929
1.006,017
1.112,292
1.362,261
1.698,590
1.921,268
2.134,867
2.202,623
2.411,348
2.618,532
834,028
902,350
958,638
1.032,842
1.134,148
1.369,568
1.686,320
1.896,037
2.097,203
2.161,015
2.357,592
2.552,716
35
TR
(aos)
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
2.681,651
2.763,869
2.739,346
2.824,960
2.652,815
2.747,129
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 6.
SMADA.
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
2.793,881
3.224,468
3.579,207
4.046,859
4.685,318
6.168,995
8.165,248
9.486,940
10.754,740
11.156,900
12.395,780
13.625,500
14.256,350
14.850,740
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 7. Caudales proyectados estacin Calamar, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
8.168,453
8.566,134
8.939,216
9.410,924
10.052,900
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
8.284,909
8.711,480
9.062,909
9.526,197
10.158,700
36
TR
(aos)
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
11.562,910
13.594,580
14.939,720
16.230,020
16.639,310
17.900,170
19.151,710
19.881,520
20.398,690
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
11.628,530
13.606,160
14.915,520
16.171,490
16.569,900
17.797,220
19.015,470
19.640,430
20.229,280
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 8. Caudales proyectados estacin Canteras, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
1.057,662
1.121,172
1.180,753
1.256,085
1.358,610
1.599,758
1.924,217
2.139,037
2.345,098
2.410,463
2.611,822
2.811,695
2.928,245
3.010,837
1.064,767
1.127,644
1.186,632
1.261,214
1.362,717
1.601,463
1.922,691
2.135,371
2.339,379
2.404,093
2.603,447
2.801,328
2.916,718
2.998,488
1.062,845
1.132,652
1.190,163
1.265,979
1.369,487
1.610,022
1.933,656
2.147,929
2.353,466
2.418,665
2.619,513
2.818,877
2.921,150
3.017,514
Fuente. Autores.
37
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
4.505,331
4.747,448
4.974,590
5.261,777
5.652,632
6.571,958
7.808,891
8.627,848
9.413,410
9.662,602
10.430,240
11.192,210
11.636,540
11.951,400
4.324,535
4.588,733
4.836,589
5.149,967
5.576,466
6.579,632
7.929,368
8.823,011
9.680,215
9.952,132
10.789,780
11.621,240
12.106,080
12.449,670
4.552,405
4.815,101
5.031,523
5.316,832
5.706,348
6.611,521
7.829,410
8.635,758
9.409,227
9.654,581
10.410,400
11.160,640
11.545,520
11.908,150
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 10. Caudales proyectados estacin El Profundo, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
85,705
112,505
137,648
169,438
212,702
314,465
451,384
542,036
628,992
656,576
741,548
825,893
875,076
909,929
99,805
124,784
148,217
177,845
218,169
313,013
440,623
525,112
606,156
631,864
711,059
789,669
835,509
867,993
100,366
128,260
151,240
181,534
222,894
319,007
448,324
533,944
616,072
642,124
722,379
802,041
842,907
881,412
Fuente. Autores.
38
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
896,148
1.025,937
1.147,699
1.301,648
1.511,169
2.003,982
2.667,050
3.106,059
3.527,167
3.660,749
4.072,249
4.480,710
4.718,894
4.887,682
971,787
1.092,679
1.206,095
1.349,491
1.544,650
2.003,683
2.621,302
3.030,219
3.422,461
3.546,886
3.930,180
4.310,643
4.532,501
4.689,718
955,411
1.091,964
1.204,463
1.352,770
1.555,245
2.025,766
2.658,840
3.077,990
3.480,049
3.607,588
4.000,474
4.390,459
4.590,520
4.779,021
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 12. Caudales proyectados estacin Gambote, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
413,101
451,054
486,659
531,676
592,944
737,051
930,943
1.059,317
1.182,456
1.221,518
1.341,847
1.461,288
1.530,937
1.580,294
402,476
441,422
477,960
524,156
587,027
734,906
933,875
1.065,610
1.191,972
1.232,056
1.355,536
1.478,104
1.549,577
1.600,225
412,974
455,095
484,999
535,543
597,998
743,134
938,412
1.067,702
1.191,721
1.231,061
1.352,250
1.472,545
1.534,255
1.592,400
Fuente. Autores.
39
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
-16,955
26,922
68,085
120,129
190,960
357,561
581,718
730,130
872,490
917,649
1.056,761
1.194,846
1.275,367
1.332,427
20,112
59,414
96,286
142,904
206,351
355,584
556,373
689,314
816,833
857,284
981,893
1.105,583
1.177,710
1.228,822
-31,082
19,372
60,938
115,734
190,544
364,392
598,299
753,166
901,718
948,841
1.094,004
1.238,095
1.312,013
1.381,660
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 14. Caudales proyectados estacin La Miel, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
-20,662
-12,634
-5,102
4,421
17,381
47,864
88,878
116,033
142,081
150,344
175,797
201,063
-11,606
-4,687
1,804
10,010
21,179
47,450
82,796
106,199
128,647
135,768
157,704
179,478
-67,416
-52,594
-40,383
-24,285
-2,307
48,766
117,483
162,980
206,621
220,465
263,111
305,442
40
TR
(aos)
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
215,796
226,236
192,175
201,173
327,158
347,618
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 15. Caudales proyectados estacin Magangue, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
5.503,041
5.775,536
6.031,176
6.354,396
6.794,289
7.828,959
9.221,084
10.142,790
11.026,920
11.307,370
12.171,320
13.028,900
13.528,970
13.883,340
5.221,923
5.530,192
5.819,394
6.185,047
6.682,691
7.853,198
9.428,088
10.470,800
11.471,000
11.788,270
12.765,650
13.735,810
14.301,530
14.702,430
5.546,254
5.843,135
6.087,721
6.410,158
6.850,363
7.873,328
9.249,705
10.160,990
11.035,110
11.312,390
12.166,570
13.014,440
13.449,400
13.859,220
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 16. Caudales proyectados estacin Montelibano, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
529,562
565,909
600,008
643,122
530,521
566,424
600,106
642,692
533,960
573,732
606,498
649,693
41
TR
(aos)
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
701,798
839,810
1.025,502
1.148,447
1.266,378
1.303,787
1.419,028
1.533,417
1.600,121
1.647,390
700,651
836,975
1.020,396
1.141,837
1.258,326
1.295,277
1.409,108
1.522,099
1.587,986
1.634,677
708,665
845,707
1.030,093
1.152,173
1.269,274
1.306,421
1.420,851
1.534,436
1.592,705
1.647,606
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 17. Caudales proyectados estacin Nario, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
2.442,721
2.562,071
2.674,040
2.815,607
3.008,276
3.461,453
4.071,192
4.474,892
4.862,131
4.984,968
5.363,372
5.738,981
5.958,008
6.113,220
2.367,807
2.497,290
2.618,764
2.772,349
2.981,375
3.473,024
4.134,527
4.572,499
4.992,613
5.125,878
5.536,407
5.943,903
6.181,525
6.349,914
2.436,844
2.569,991
2.679,684
2.824,292
3.021,718
3.480,502
4.097,787
4.506,482
4.898,513
5.022,871
5.405,958
5.786,215
5.981,287
6.165,086
Fuente. Autores.
42
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
562,382
615,355
665,051
727,885
813,399
1.014,538
1.285,166
1.464,345
1.636,218
1.690,738
1.858,689
2.025,401
2.122,614
2.191,504
547,491
603,023
655,121
720,991
810,639
1.021,498
1.305,204
1.493,043
1.673,222
1.730,377
1.906,445
2.081,213
2.183,124
2.255,343
570,783
628,496
676,044
738,725
824,300
1.023,164
1.290,730
1.467,882
1.637,810
1.691,714
1.857,766
2.022,591
2.107,146
2.186,815
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 19. Caudales proyectados estacin Piedras de Cobre, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
947,948
1.040,066
1.126,486
1.235,752
1.384,459
1.734,233
2.204,846
2.516,433
2.815,315
2.910,124
3.202,186
3.492,092
3.661,143
3.780,940
867,577
968,967
1.064,087
1.184,351
1.348,027
1.733,010
2.250,996
2.593,947
2.922,914
3.027,267
3.348,729
3.667,816
3.853,885
3.985,740
972,033
1.071,205
1.152,909
1.260,618
1.407,668
1.749,387
2.209,163
2.513,574
2.805,573
2.898,199
3.183,536
3.466,765
3.612,062
3.748,962
Fuente. Autores.
43
Tabla 20. Caudales proyectados estacin Puente Santander, mediante HYFA y SMADA
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
1.098,920
1.197,073
1.289,156
1.405,580
1.564,031
1.936,722
2.438,169
2.770,171
3.088,635
3.189,656
3.500,854
3.809,754
3.989,881
4.117,527
1.015,162
1.123,321
1.224,790
1.353,082
1.527,684
1.938,365
2.490,927
2.856,771
3.207,698
3.319,016
3.661,936
4.002,324
4.200,813
4.341,470
687,361
917,539
1.090,832
1.299,380
1.552,446
2.029,913
2.507,372
2.757,191
2.963,438
3.023,508
3.195,500
3.350,177
3.424,452
3.491,720
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 21. Caudales proyectados estacin Puerto Araujo, mediante HYFA y SMADA
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
827,606
891,859
952,138
1.028,352
1.132,076
1.376,047
1.704,303
1.921,638
2.130,110
2.196,240
2.399,956
2.602,168
2.720,083
2.803,642
824,764
889,307
949,857
1.026,415
1.130,608
1.375,679
1.705,416
1.923,731
2.133,144
2.199,573
2.404,208
2.607,331
2.725,778
2.809,714
853,707
921,714
977,742
1.051,603
1.152,442
1.386,774
1.702,064
1.910,812
2.111,049
2.174,567
2.370,236
2.564,459
2.664,096
2.757,974
Fuente. Autores.
44
Tabla 22. Caudales proyectados estacin Puerto Berrio, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
VEROSIMILITUD
3.753,308 3.536,041
3.945,252 3.754,969
4.125,324 3.960,355
4.352,999 4.220,036
4.662,857 4.573,455
5.391,675 5.404,729
6.372,282 6.523,191
7.021,530 7.263,709
7.644,303 7.974,033
7.841,855 8.199,356
8.450,420 8.893,473
9.054,491 9.582,464
9.406,739 9.984,231
9.656,357 10.268,940
MOMENTOS
3.925,592
4.116,949
4.274,598
4.482,426
4.766,162
5.425,519
6.312,669
6.900,039
7.463,459
7.642,183
8.192,749
8.739,249
9.019,602
9.283,754
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 23. Caudales proyectados estacin Puerto Salgar, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
3.172,355
3.288,199
3.396,878
3.534,286
3.721,295
4.161,158
4.752,983
5.144,823
5.520,685
5.639,914
6.007,200
6.371,774
6.584,367
6.735,019
3.126,138
3.248,102
3.362,522
3.507,189
3.704,077
4.167,176
4.790,266
5.202,805
5.598,523
5.724,050
6.110,739
6.494,573
6.718,396
6.877,006
3.258,399
3.376,130
3.473,122
3.600,987
3.775,554
4.181,220
4.727,033
5.088,409
5.435,050
5.545,009
5.883,742
6.219,972
6.392,458
6.554,976
Fuente. Autores.
45
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
1.724,091
1.854,633
1.977,101
2.131,943
2.342,680
2.838,351
3.505,266
3.946,822
4.370,373
4.504,729
4.918,616
5.329,447
5.569,013
5.738,779
1.692,859
1.826,132
1.951,161
2.109,243
2.324,387
2.830,426
3.511,291
3.962,083
4.394,493
4.531,659
4.954,203
5.373,627
5.618,204
5.791,521
1.792,706
1.928,923
2.041,144
2.189,086
2.391,062
2.860,423
3.491,937
3.910,054
4.311,122
4.438,346
4.830,265
5.219,288
5.418,856
5.606,892
Fuente. Autores.
Tabla 25. Caudales proyectados estacin San Pablo, mediante HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
4.731,498
4.957,369
5.169,269
5.437,186
5.801,813
6.659,452
7.813,385
8.577,389
9.310,239
9.542,710
10.258,840
10.969,680
11.384,190
11.677,930
4.813,843
5.029,128
5.231,098
5.486,458
5.833,997
6.651,441
7.751,294
8.479,492
9.177,997
9.399,572
10.082,140
10.759,670
11.154,750
11.434,720
4.447,082
4.733,487
4.969,441
5.280,500
5.705,170
6.692,037
8.019,842
8.898,965
9.742,240
10.009,740
10.833,780
11.651,730
12.071,330
12.466,690
Fuente. Autores.
46
Tabla 26. Caudales proyectados estacin San Pedro (Puerto Libertador), mediante
HYFA y SMADA.
CAUDAL ESTIMADO (m3/S)
TR
(aos)
1,010
1,026
1,053
1,111
1,250
2,000
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
MODELO DE SIMULACIN
HYFA
SMADA
MTODO
MTODO
MOMENTOS
VEROSIMILITUD
MOMENTOS
186,753
211,846
235,387
265,150
305,658
400,937
529,132
614,008
695,423
721,249
800,807
879,777
925,827
958,459
154,083
183,234
210,582
245,160
292,219
402,907
551,835
650,438
745,021
775,023
867,448
959,190
1.012,687
1.050,598
137,493
171,542
195,715
236,573
287,059
404,381
562,236
666,749
767,001
798,802
896,767
994,008
1.043,892
1.090,894
Fuente. Autores.
47
3. CONCLUSIONES
El estudio de caracterizacin hidrolgica se desarroll para toda la cuenca del ro
Magdalena, seleccionando 28 estaciones de las cuales, dos (Paicol, Hacienda
Venecia) pertenecen al afluente del embalse de Betania; y dos ms (Montelbano,
Puerto Libertador) que pertenecen al afluente del ro Cauca.
Para el anlisis de los parmetros Hidrolgicos se hizo uso de la informacin de
28 estaciones pluviomtricas satelitales y convencionales trabajadas a lo largo de
la cuenca del ro Magdalena; la depuracin de los datos satelitales se realiz bajo
el software HYDRAS 3 (Software perteneciente al IDEAM) el cual aporta caudales
cada minuto, y los convencionales fueron suministrados por personal cercano a
las respectivas estaciones que realizan el proceso de compilacin de la
informacin, tomando niveles de precipitacin de forma manual y visual dos veces
al da; acto seguido los datos entraron a una matriz denominada RADIO para ser
analizada. Se deja claridad que los procesos anteriormente descritos son
realizados por El Instituto de Hidrologa, Meteorologa y Estudios Ambientales
IDEAM, aportando la informacin obtenida al proyecto.
Mediante las proyecciones realizadas por los programas HYFA y SMADA,
tomando referencia en los registros de Caudales multianuales, se puede concluir
que las estaciones de Magangu, Puerto Berrio, el Banco, San Pablo, presentaran
caudales mayores a 10000 m3/da, esto nos proyecta a posibles crecidas para lo
cual se tendrn que realizar planes de contingencia.
Mediante las proyecciones realizadas por los programas HYFA y SMADA,
tomando referencia en los registros de Caudales multianuales, se puede concluir
que la estacin de La Miel presentara caudales menores a 300 m3/da en el
periodo de retorno TR 200 aos, esto nos proyecta a posibles sequias para lo cual
se tendrn que realizar planes de contingencia.
El presente trabajo se finaliza dejando constancia del anlisis nico
correspondiente al rea de hidrologa (Caudales en sus respectivos tiempos de
retorno); procesos realizados con los software HYFA y SMADA; el tiempo previsto
para la culminacin de todo el proceso no se pudo cumplir a cabalidad, por
retrasos inesperados en la verificacin del anlisis hidrolgico y entrega de
informacin hidrulica por parte del Instituto de Hidrologa, Meteorologa y
Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM).
48
BIBLIOGRAFA
IDEAM. Pronsticos y alertas [en lnea]. Bogot: Instituto de hidrologa,
meteorologa y estudios ambientales [citado 4 agosto, 2013]. Disponible en
Internet: <URL: http://www.pronosticosyalertas.gov.co/jsp/751>.
INAMEH. Glosario de trminos [en lnea]. Venezuela: Instituto nacional de
meteorologa e hidrologa [citado 23 agosto, 2013]. Disponible en Internet: <URL:
http://www.inameh.gob.ve/glos.php>.
INSTITUTO COLOMBIANO DE NORMAS TECNICAS Y CERTIFICACION.
Referencias bibliogrficas. Contenido, forma y estructura. NTC 5613. Bogot:
ICONTEC, 2008. 38 p.
----------. Documentacin. Presentacin de tesis, trabajos de grado y otros trabajos
de investigacin. NTC 1486. Bogot: ICONTEC, 2008. 41 p.
MID-AMERICA REGIONAL COUNCIL. Qu es una cuenca hidrogrfica? [en
lnea]. Estados Unidos: Mid-america regional council [citado 23 agosto, 2013].
Disponible
en
Internet:
<URL:
http://marc.org/environment/Water/Espanol/watershed_espanol.htm>.
PARDO OJEDA, F. A. Diagramas de estaciones - red de alertas. Bogot: IDEAM,
2004. 198 p.
SAIZ HERNANDEZ, Juan Arcadio. Hidrulica de canales. Sonora: Universidad de
Sonora, 2011, 66 p.
SEH. Qu es el mtodo de estimacin de mxima verosimilitud y como se
interpreta? [en lnea]. Espaa: Asociacin de la sociedad espaola de hipertensin
[citado 25 noviembre, 2013]. Disponible en Internet: <URL: http://www.sehlelha.org/maxverosim.htm>.
SENAMHI. Gua de hidrometra de aguas superficiales [en lnea]. Per: Servicio
nacional de meteorologa e hidrologa [citado 23 agosto, 2013]. Disponible en
Internet: <URL: http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/pdf/aprendiendo_hidrometria.pdf>.
SIGPAD. Pronsticos y alertas [en lnea]. Bogot: Sistema nacional para la gestin
de riesgos y desastres [citado 4 agosto, 2013]. Disponible en Internet: <URL:
http://www.sigpad.gov.co/sigpad/archivos.aspx?idc=50>.
49
lnx-stat
mean =
2332.1890
7.7333
var =
.2549E+06
.0424
st.dev=
504.8991
.2060
biasskew=
.9249
.4527
biaskurt=
3.6497
2.6341
skew =
1.0049
.4919
kurt =
4.3153
3.1145
RANKING OF THE DATA & THE PLOTTING POSITIONS
rank
value
value
plotting position (percent) according to:
of x
of ln(x)
WEIBULL
20 =
2284.00
7.73368
1 =
1626.00
7.39388
2.6316
21 =
2305.00
7.74284
2 =
1672.00
7.42178
5.2632
22 =
2308.00
7.74414
3 =
1727.00
7.45414
7.8947
23 =
2365.00
7.76853
4 =
1755.00
7.47022
10.5263
24 =
2377.00
7.77359
5 =
1820.00
7.50659
13.1579
25 =
2480.00
7.81601
6 =
1830.00
7.51207
15.7895
26 =
2494.00
7.82164
7 =
1864.00
7.53048
18.4211
27 =
2576.00
7.85399
8 =
1893.00
7.54592
21.0526
28 =
2675.00
7.89170
9 =
1959.00
7.58019
23.6842
29 =
2684.00
7.89506
10 =
1959.00
7.58019
26.3158
30 =
2692.00
7.89804
11 =
2004.00
7.60290
28.9474
31 =
2747.00
7.91826
12 =
2016.00
7.60887
31.5789
32 =
2896.00
7.97109
13 =
2024.00
7.61283
34.2105
33 =
2996.00
8.00503
14 =
2043.00
7.62217
36.8421
34 =
3080.00
8.03269
15 =
2051.00
7.62608
39.4737
35 =
3158.00
8.05769
16 =
2108.00
7.65349
42.1053
36 =
3219.00
8.07683
17 =
2225.00
7.70751
44.7368
37 =
3867.00
8.26023
18 =
2239.00
7.71378
47.3684
19 =
2273.00
7.72886
50.0000
52.6316
55.2632
57.8947
60.5263
63.1579
65.7895
68.4211
71.0526
73.6842
76.3158
78.9474
81.5789
84.2105
86.8421
89.4737
92.1053
94.7368
97.3684
EVALUATION
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.25401E-02
Est.
value
X
T
1503.780
1591.118
1673.055
1776.651
1917.643
2249.270
2695.466
2990.886
3274.261
3364.151
3641.060
3915.925
4076.205
4189.786
St.Error
-------S
T
120.043
108.135
97.757
86.176
74.516
76.189
128.305
173.297
218.916
233.661
279.597
325.708
352.754
371.972
u
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
alpha =
G O O D N E S S
.26329E-02
OF
F I T
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
1525.934
1610.198
1689.250
1789.200
1925.228
2245.181
2675.669
2960.690
3234.089
3320.814
3587.975
3853.164
4007.801
4117.384
82.498
75.873
70.605
65.608
62.505
73.322
112.589
144.465
176.764
187.220
219.849
252.674
271.953
285.662
1350.141
1448.522
1538.799
1649.397
1792.037
2088.941
2435.756
2652.853
2857.425
2921.870
3119.503
3314.746
3428.302
3508.673
u
T E S T S
.21060E+04
1701.727
1771.874
1839.702
1929.002
2058.420
2401.420
2915.582
3268.527
3610.752
3719.759
4056.448
4391.581
4587.300
4726.096
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
relat.dev
mean
sq.rel.dev.
1.84873
2.16708
5.94428
8.02180
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
Fitting Method
______________
GUMBEL EVI
Moments
Max.Likelihood
7.40
Chi-square value
________________
.16216
.97297
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
Fitting Method: Method of Moments
---------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
1917.6436868686868
.400
2139.400
.600
2369.423
.800
2695.466
.974
3531.755
T I T L E: Arrancaplumas
GUMBEL EVI
1925.228
2139.178
2361.104
2675.669
3482.519
3522.6710
.2925E+06
540.8373
.4488
2.9100
.4670
3.1530
lnx-stat
8.1555
.0232
.1522
.0712
2.6689
.0741
2.8917
31.1688
32.4675
33.7662
35.0649
36.3636
37.6623
38.9610
40.2597
41.5584
42.8571
44.1558
45.4545
46.7532
48.0519
49.3507
50.6493
51.9481
53.2468
54.5455
55.8442
57.1429
58.4416
59.7403
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
3617.00
3617.00
3617.00
3634.00
3718.00
3775.00
3780.00
3780.00
3780.00
3807.00
3875.00
3875.00
3900.00
3904.00
3947.00
EVALUATION
8.19340
8.19340
8.19340
8.19809
8.22094
8.23616
8.23748
8.23748
8.23748
8.24460
8.26230
8.26230
8.26873
8.26976
8.28071
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
61.0390
62.3377
63.6364
64.9351
66.2338
67.5325
68.8312
70.1299
71.4286
72.7273
74.0260
75.3247
76.6234
77.9221
79.2208
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
4012.00
4048.00
4049.00
4056.00
4092.00
4178.00
4245.00
4330.00
4360.00
4496.00
4511.00
4549.00
4556.00
4572.00
5086.00
8.29704
8.30598
8.30622
8.30795
8.31679
8.33759
8.35350
8.37332
8.38023
8.41094
8.41427
8.42266
8.42420
8.42771
8.53425
80.5195
81.8182
83.1169
84.4156
85.7143
87.0130
88.3117
89.6104
90.9091
92.2078
93.5065
94.8052
96.1039
97.4026
98.7013
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
.990
.975
.010
.025
&
kurt = 5.4002
Est.
value
X
T
2635.296
2728.851
St.Error
-------S
T
89.721
80.821
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.23713E-02
2816.620
2927.590
3078.618
3433.850
3911.805
4228.254
4531.798
4628.087
4924.706
5219.135
5390.824
5512.490
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
Est.
value
X
T
2548.738
2652.857
2750.536
2874.036
3042.117
3437.460
3969.385
4321.565
4659.384
4766.545
5096.658
5424.332
5615.407
5750.811
u
73.064
64.409
55.693
56.944
95.896
129.523
163.619
174.640
208.972
243.436
263.650
278.014
u
2663.909
2969.331
2792.970
3062.210
2962.214
3195.022
3314.831
3552.868
3711.374
4112.237
3957.539
4498.969
4189.819
4873.777
4263.074
4993.100
4487.936
5361.477
4710.332
5727.938
4839.771
5941.876
4931.416
6093.564
=
.32793E+04
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.21308E-02
G O O D N E S S
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
OF
F I T
T E S T S
St.Error
Conf. lim. of Est.
-------lower----------upper
S
(X -t.S)
(X +t.S)
T
T
T
T
T
71.125
2400.079
2697.396
65.414
2516.136
2789.577
60.872
2623.307
2877.764
56.564
2755.813
2992.260
53.889
2929.485
3154.750
63.214
3305.337
3569.583
97.068
3766.503
4172.266
124.550
4061.244
4581.886
152.397
4340.860
4977.908
161.412
4429.180
5103.911
189.543
4700.496
5492.819
217.842
4969.021
5879.643
234.464
5125.356
6105.458
246.283
5236.057
6265.565
=
.32655E+04
mean
sq.rel.dev.
5.12530
3.30004
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency : 15.20
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
Chi-square value
________________
.97368
2.15789
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Max. Likelihood
Fitting Method : Method of Moments
------------------------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
3078.618
.400
3316.159
.600
3562.555
.800
3911.805
.987
5108.286
T I T L E: BALSEADERO
PROB.
.200
.400
.600
.800
.987
GUMBEL EVI
3042.117
3306.481
3580.699
3969.385
5300.966
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
1419.2240
.1336E+06
365.4774
.9224
4.3380
.9939
5.0435
7.2271
.0626
.2502
.0752
3.2510
.0810
3.7798
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
748.00
883.40
946.80
992.00
1034.00
1077.00
1080.00
1100.00
1105.00
1144.00
1176.00
1204.00
1238.00
1240.00
1266.00
1268.00
1271.00
1288.00
1365.00
value
of ln(x)
6.61740
6.78378
6.85309
6.89972
6.94119
6.98193
6.98472
7.00307
7.00760
7.04229
7.06987
7.09340
7.12125
7.12287
7.14362
7.14520
7.14756
7.16085
7.21891
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
1372.00
1391.00
1411.00
1411.00
1471.00
1472.00
1482.00
1520.00
1534.00
1562.00
1568.00
1576.00
1638.00
1641.00
1651.00
1702.00
1801.00
1832.00
1891.00
7.22402
7.23778
7.25205
7.25205
7.29370
7.29438
7.30115
7.32647
7.33563
7.35372
7.35756
7.36265
7.40123
7.40306
7.40914
7.43956
7.49610
7.51316
7.54486
47.6190
50.0000
52.3810
54.7619
57.1429
59.5238
61.9048
64.2857
66.6667
69.0476
71.4286
73.8095
76.1905
78.5714
80.9524
83.3333
85.7143
88.0952
90.4762
39 =
40 =
1936.00
2352.00
EVALUATION
7.56838
7.76302
92.8571
95.2381
41 =
2548.00
7.84306
97.6190
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
819.570
882.791
942.102
1017.091
1119.150
1359.202
1682.187
1896.030
2101.155
2166.223
2366.667
82.547
74.359
67.222
59.259
51.240
52.391
88.229
119.167
150.537
160.676
192.263
994.811
1040.649
1084.810
1142.893
1227.929
1470.425
1869.489
2149.012
2420.732
2507.325
2774.827
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.990
.993
.995
.35091E-02
2565.631
2681.651
2763.869
223.972
242.570
255.785
u
2090.156
3041.105
2166.695
3196.608
2220.857
3306.880
=
.12548E+04
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
800.335
866.168
927.929
1006.017
1112.292
1362.261
1698.590
1921.268
2134.867
2202.623
2411.348
2618.532
2739.346
2824.960
61.228
56.311
52.402
48.693
46.390
54.418
83.561
107.219
131.191
138.952
163.168
187.530
201.839
212.013
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
G O O D N E S S
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.33700E-02
OF
F I T
u
T E S T S
670.352
746.623
816.684
902.645
1013.809
1246.736
1521.196
1693.650
1856.358
1907.640
2064.955
2220.421
2310.859
2374.873
.12535E+04
930.318
985.713
1039.174
1109.388
1210.775
1477.786
1875.984
2148.886
2413.376
2497.607
2757.742
3016.644
3167.834
3275.048
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting method
______________
mean
relat.dev
Moments
2.43412
Max.Likelihood
2.27360
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
15.76113
12.57451
8.20
Chi-square value
________________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
Fitting
---------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
1119.150
.400
1279.671
.600
1446.177
.800
1682.187
.976
2316.430
T I T L E: Calamar
mean
sq.rel.dev.
1.80488
1.80488
11940.4600
.5285E+07
2298.9660
.0963
2.5471
.1034
2.9400
lnx-stat
9.3689
.0394
.1985
-.3678
2.7693
-.3949
3.1966
52.2727
54.5455
56.8182
59.0909
61.3636
63.6364
65.9091
68.1818
70.4545
72.7273
75.0000
77.2727
79.5455
81.8182
84.0909
86.3636
88.6364
90.9091
93.1818
95.4545
97.7273
EVALUATION
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
---maximum likelihood---
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.55786E-03
Est.
value
X
T
8168.453
8566.134
8939.216
9410.924
10052.900
11562.910
13594.580
14939.720
16230.020
16639.310
17900.170
19151.710
19881.520
20398.690
St.Error
-------S
T
507.027
456.732
412.899
363.984
314.732
321.802
541.925
731.957
924.639
986.918
1180.936
1375.698
1489.931
1571.103
u
OF
F I T
T E S T S
1660.0540
.1348E+06
367.1461
1.0982
4.5813
1.1932
5.4169
lnx-stat
7.3927
.0438
.2093
.4124
3.3581
.4480
3.9705
value
of x
value
of ln(x)
1 =
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1020.00
=
1225.00
=
1233.00
=
1237.00
=
1246.00
=
1310.00
=
1370.00
=
1380.00
=
1439.00
=
1441.00
=
1466.00
=
1481.00
=
1505.00
=
1516.00
=
1520.00
=
1531.00
=
1544.00
=
1600.00
6.92756
7.11070
7.11721
7.12044
7.12769
7.17778
7.22257
7.22984
7.27170
7.27309
7.29029
7.30047
7.31655
7.32383
7.32647
7.33368
7.34213
7.37776
2.6316
5.2632
7.8947
10.5263
13.1579
15.7895
18.4211
21.0526
23.6842
26.3158
28.9474
31.5789
34.2105
36.8421
39.4737
42.1053
44.7368
47.3684
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
1624.00
1631.00
1632.00
1636.00
1637.00
1641.00
1681.00
1698.00
1724.00
1846.00
1903.00
1980.00
1985.00
2038.00
2072.00
2100.00
2261.00
2419.00
7.39265
7.39695
7.39756
7.40001
7.40062
7.40306
7.42714
7.43721
7.45240
7.52078
7.55119
7.59085
7.59337
7.61972
7.63627
7.64969
7.72356
7.79111
50.0000
52.6316
55.2632
57.8947
60.5263
63.1579
65.7895
68.4211
71.0526
73.6842
76.3158
78.9474
81.5789
84.2105
86.8421
89.4737
92.1053
94.7368
37 =
2850.00
EVALUATION
7.95507
97.3684
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
1057.662
1121.172
1180.753
1256.085
1358.610
1599.758
1924.217
2139.037
2345.098
2410.463
2611.822
87.291
78.632
71.086
62.665
54.185
55.402
93.299
126.016
159.189
169.911
203.313
871.654
953.616
1029.277
1122.554
1243.147
1481.702
1725.407
1870.512
2005.885
2048.403
2178.585
1243.669
1288.728
1332.229
1389.616
1474.072
1717.814
2123.027
2407.562
2684.310
2772.522
3045.059
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.990
.993
.995
.34932E-02
2811.695
2928.245
3010.837
236.844
256.511
270.486
u
2307.007
3316.382
2381.650
3474.839
2434.464
3587.211
=
.14948E+04
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
G O O D N E S S
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.35284E-02
OF
F I T
1064.767
1127.644
1186.632
1261.214
1362.717
1601.463
1922.691
2135.371
2339.379
2404.093
2603.447
2801.328
2916.718
2998.488
61.559
56.616
52.685
48.956
46.641
54.712
84.013
107.798
131.900
139.702
164.050
188.543
202.929
213.159
u
T E S T S
933.592
1195.943
1007.003
1248.285
1074.366
1298.898
1156.894
1365.533
1263.331
1462.104
1484.878
1718.048
1743.669
2101.712
1905.665
2365.077
2058.316
2620.443
2106.404
2701.783
2253.876
2953.017
2399.565
3203.092
2484.300
3349.135
2544.271
3452.704
=
.14976E+04
Fitting method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
relat.dev
2.51226
2.51343
mean
sq.rel.dev.
11.73000
12.25563
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
7.40
Chi-square value
________________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
Fitting
---------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
1358.61083
.400
1519.864
.600
1687.130
.800
1924.217
.974
2532.339
T I T L E: El Banco
3.67568
3.13514
6801.8250
.1959E+07
1399.6680
.4417
2.4893
.4769
2.9055
lnx-stat
8.8045
.0420
.2048
.0008
2.6142
.0009
3.0512
1 =
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
value
of x
value
of ln(x)
4034.00
8.30251
=
4821.00
8.48074
=
4972.00
8.51158
=
5280.00
8.57168
=
5284.00
8.57244
=
5370.00
8.58858
=
5415.00
8.59693
=
5583.00
8.62748
=
5611.00
8.63248
=
5658.00
8.64083
=
5750.00
8.65695
=
5940.00
8.68946
=
6078.00
8.71243
=
6099.00
8.71588
=
6233.00
8.73761
=
6331.00
8.75321
=
6378.00
8.76061
=
6443.00
8.77075
=
6576.00
8.79118
=
6600.00
8.79482
EVALUATION t-VALUE
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
6638.00
6643.00
6650.00
6661.00
6791.00
6902.00
7048.00
7145.00
7655.00
7710.00
7900.00
7900.00
8262.00
8452.00
8665.00
8820.00
9005.00
9458.00
9612.00
9700.00
8.80057
8.80132
8.80237
8.80402
8.82335
8.83957
8.86050
8.87417
8.94311
8.95027
8.97462
8.97462
9.01942
9.04216
9.06705
9.08478
9.10554
9.15462
9.17077
9.17988
51.2195
53.6585
56.0976
58.5366
60.9756
63.4146
65.8537
68.2927
70.7317
73.1707
75.6098
78.0488
80.4878
82.9268
85.3659
87.8049
90.2439
92.6829
95.1219
97.5610
A N A L Y S I S
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
4505.331
4747.448
4974.590
5261.777
5652.632
6571.958
7808.891
8627.848
9413.410
9662.602
10430.240
11192.210
320.057
288.309
260.640
229.763
198.673
203.135
342.086
462.043
583.672
622.985
745.458
868.400
3825.289
4134.864
4420.796
4773.589
5230.502
6140.346
7082.042
7646.122
8173.252
8338.913
8846.329
9347.080
5185.373
5360.032
5528.385
5749.966
6074.762
7003.570
8535.739
9609.573
10653.570
10986.290
12014.150
13037.350
150.00000
.007
.993
11636.540
940.509
9638.190
13634.880
200.00000
.005
alpha =
.995
.91629E-03
11951.400
991.748
u
9844.187
14058.620
=
.61720E+04
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
4324.535
4588.733
4836.589
5149.967
5576.466
6579.632
7929.368
8823.011
9680.215
9952.132
10789.780
11621.240
12106.080
12449.670
248.771
228.794
212.910
197.840
188.484
221.101
339.510
435.632
533.031
564.562
662.953
761.936
820.071
861.412
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.83974E-03
G O O D N E S S
OF
u
F I T
T E S T S
3795.958
4102.604
4384.209
4729.606
5175.984
6109.848
7207.993
7897.400
8547.656
8752.578
9381.167
10002.310
10363.640
10619.380
.61432E+04
4853.112
5074.862
5288.969
5570.328
5976.948
7049.416
8650.743
9748.621
10812.770
11151.690
12198.390
13240.160
13848.530
14279.950
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting method
______________
mean
relat.dev
Moments
2.72379
Max.Likelihood
2.18703
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
Fitting Method
______________
GUMBEL EVI
mean
sq.rel.dev.
15.47458
10.38638
8.00
Chi-square value
________________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
4.25000
1.75000
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
---------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
5652.632
.400
6267.380
.600
6905.044
.800
7808.891
.976
10211.230
GUMBEL EVI
5576.466
6247.277
6943.095
7929.368
10550.790
T I T L E: El Profundo
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
339.9094
.2400E+05
154.9328
1.1631
4.6467
1.2320
5.2170
lnx-stat
5.7344
.1906
.4365
.1179
2.4466
.1249
2.7470
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
124.00
154.00
154.00
158.10
167.70
172.10
186.20
188.10
192.80
203.60
204.00
207.50
211.00
227.00
234.60
241.60
244.00
252.40
257.20
value
of ln(x)
4.82028
5.03695
5.03695
5.06323
5.12218
5.14808
5.22682
5.23697
5.26165
5.31616
5.31812
5.33513
5.35186
5.42495
5.45788
5.48728
5.49717
5.53101
5.54985
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
267.00
273.80
279.20
283.30
291.00
296.10
298.00
303.50
316.90
319.60
320.00
331.60
343.60
354.50
355.00
356.50
359.70
364.00
372.00
5.58725
5.61240
5.63193
5.64651
5.67332
5.69070
5.69709
5.71538
5.75859
5.76707
5.76832
5.80393
5.83948
5.87071
5.87212
5.87633
5.88527
5.89715
5.91889
37.0370
38.8889
40.7407
42.5926
44.4444
46.2963
48.1481
50.0000
51.8519
53.7037
55.5556
57.4074
59.2593
61.1111
62.9630
64.8148
66.6667
68.5185
70.3704
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
416.90
449.00
461.20
467.60
467.60
475.40
504.00
524.80
EVALUATION
6.03285
6.10702
6.13383
6.14761
6.14761
6.16416
6.22258
6.26302
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
72.2222
74.0741
75.9259
77.7778
79.6296
81.4815
83.3333
85.1852
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
530.00
556.80
560.00
560.00
626.70
650.00
900.00
6.27288
6.32221
6.32794
6.32794
6.44047
6.47697
6.80239
87.0370
88.8889
90.7407
92.5926
94.4444
96.2963
98.1481
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
85.705
112.505
137.648
169.438
30.778
27.725
25.064
22.095
150.540
170.909
190.447
215.982
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
212.702
314.465
451.384
542.036
628.992
656.576
741.548
825.893
875.076
909.929
19.105
19.534
32.896
44.432
56.128
59.908
71.686
83.508
90.443
95.370
.82778E-02
172.456
273.315
382.086
448.438
510.755
530.375
590.537
649.977
684.553
709.026
=
252.948
355.615
520.682
635.635
747.230
782.777
892.559
1001.809
1065.599
1110.833
.27019E+03
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
.88819E-02
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
Est.
value
X
T
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
99.805
124.784
148.217
177.845
218.169
313.013
440.623
525.112
606.156
631.864
711.059
789.669
835.509
867.993
u
St.Error
-------S
T
20.433
18.792
17.487
16.250
15.481
18.160
27.886
35.781
43.781
46.370
54.452
62.582
67.357
70.752
.27175E+03
142.848
164.370
185.055
212.076
250.781
351.268
499.366
600.487
698.383
729.547
825.766
921.502
977.400
1017.037
G O O D N E S S
OF
F I T
T E S T S
FREQUENCY ANALYSIS CORRESPONDING TO
PLOTTING POSITION ACCORDING
WEIBULL
L.P.III DIR : LOG PEARSON TYPE III DIRECT METHOD OF MOMENTS
L.P.III IND : LOG PEARSON TYPE III INDIRECT METHOD OF MOMENTS
GUMBEL EVI : GUMBEL EXTREME VALUE TYPE I
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
Fitting method
mean
__________________
______________
relat.dev
GUMBEL EVI
Moments
4.24932
Max.Likelihood
4.76057
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency : 10.60
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
sq.rel.dev.
32.02660
34.75935
Chi-square value
________________
2.00000
3.13208
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Max. Likelihood
Fitting Method : Method of Moments
------------------------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
218.169
.200
212.702
.400
281.590
.400
280.750
.600
347.376
.600
351.335
.800
440.623
.800
451.384
.981
719.809
.981
750.936
T I T L E: El Tablazo
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
2127.2040
.5630E+06
750.3041
1.2815
4.5670
1.3638
5.1776
7.6084
.1071
.3272
.2816
3.3528
.2997
3.8010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
931.00
1007.00
1285.00
1328.00
1453.00
1454.00
1459.00
1475.00
1475.00
1527.00
1530.00
1700.00
1706.00
1720.00
1734.00
1734.00
1763.00
1815.00
1831.00
1849.00
value
of ln(x)
6.83626
6.91473
7.15851
7.19143
7.28139
7.28207
7.28551
7.29641
7.29641
7.33106
7.33302
7.43838
7.44191
7.45008
7.45819
7.45819
7.47477
7.50384
7.51262
7.52240
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
1850.00
1855.00
1890.00
1908.00
1940.00
1946.00
1990.00
2031.00
2099.00
2128.00
2160.00
2238.00
2260.00
2275.00
2275.00
2325.00
2330.00
2456.00
2495.00
2515.00
7.52294
7.52564
7.54433
7.55381
7.57044
7.57353
7.59589
7.61628
7.64922
7.66294
7.67786
7.71334
7.72312
7.72974
7.72974
7.75148
7.75362
7.80629
7.82204
7.83003
42.0000
44.0000
46.0000
48.0000
50.0000
52.0000
54.0000
56.0000
58.0000
60.0000
62.0000
64.0000
66.0000
68.0000
70.0000
72.0000
74.0000
76.0000
78.0000
80.0000
41
42
43
44
45
=
=
=
=
=
2545.00
2611.00
2893.00
3050.00
3371.00
EVALUATION
7.84189
7.86749
7.97005
8.02290
8.12296
46
47
48
49
82.0000
84.0000
86.0000
88.0000
90.0000
=
=
=
=
3510.00
3904.00
4300.00
4307.00
8.16337
8.26976
8.36637
8.36800
92.0000
94.0000
96.0000
98.0000
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
896.148
1025.937
1147.699
1301.648
1511.169
2003.982
2667.050
3106.059
155.014
139.638
126.236
111.282
96.224
98.385
165.684
223.783
1223.396
1320.724
1414.194
1536.573
1714.305
2211.681
3016.823
3578.484
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.17093E-02
3527.167
3660.749
4072.249
4480.710
4718.894
4887.682
282.692
301.732
361.050
420.595
455.520
480.337
u
2930.381
4123.954
3023.766
4297.731
3310.041
4834.456
3592.799
5368.622
3757.253
5680.535
3873.650
5901.713
=
.17896E+04
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
.18352E-02
G O O D N E S S
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
=
971.787
1092.679
1206.095
1349.491
1544.650
2003.683
2621.302
3030.219
3422.461
3546.886
3930.180
4310.643
4532.501
4689.718
.18040E+04
OF
F I T
102.850
94.590
88.023
81.793
77.925
91.410
140.364
180.104
220.372
233.407
274.085
315.008
339.043
356.134
T E S T S
754.662
892.991
1020.270
1176.819
1380.144
1810.709
2324.981
2650.004
2957.238
3054.144
3351.562
3645.635
3816.753
3937.889
1188.911
1292.368
1391.920
1522.164
1709.157
2196.657
2917.622
3410.433
3887.685
4039.629
4508.797
4975.651
5248.249
5441.548
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
relat.dev
4.46135
4.21816
mean
sq.rel.dev.
30.11815
34.55545
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
9.80
Chi-square value
________________
1.51020
1.10204
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Max. Likelihood
Fitting Method : Method of Moments
------------------------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
1544.650
.200
1511.169
.400
1851.603
.400
1840.710
.600
2169.998
.600
2182.536
.800
2621.302
.800
2667.050
.980
3930.180
.980
4072.249
T I T L E: Gambote
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
773.0829
.4814E+05
219.4018
.4830
2.2973
.5273
2.7434
6.6118
.0795
.2820
.0794
1.9333
.0867
2.3087
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
value
of x
value
of ln(x)
=
458.40
6.12774
=
488.00
6.19032
=
504.00
6.22258
=
519.40
6.25267
=
525.50
6.26435
=
535.50
6.28320
=
540.00
6.29157
=
565.00
6.33683
=
575.70
6.35559
=
601.20
6.39893
=
609.30
6.41231
=
626.30
6.43983
=
636.50
6.45598
=
647.80
6.47358
=
692.20
6.53988
=
711.50
6.56738
=
737.00
6.60259
=
742.40
6.60989
EVALUATION t-VALUE
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
769.20
805.60
827.90
837.00
854.30
873.00
879.00
879.90
930.80
942.50
983.00
1025.00
1034.00
1092.00
1146.00
1194.00
1269.00
6.64535
6.69159
6.71889
6.72982
6.75028
6.77194
6.77878
6.77981
6.83604
6.84854
6.89061
6.93245
6.94119
6.99577
7.04403
7.08506
7.14598
52.7778
55.5556
58.3333
61.1111
63.8889
66.6667
69.4444
72.2222
75.0000
77.7778
80.5556
83.3333
86.1111
88.8889
91.6667
94.4444
97.2222
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
413.101
451.054
486.659
531.676
592.944
737.051
930.943
1059.317
1182.456
1221.518
1341.847
1461.288
1530.937
1580.294
53.634
48.314
43.677
38.503
33.293
34.041
57.325
77.427
97.809
104.397
124.921
145.523
157.606
166.193
527.641
554.232
579.935
613.902
664.043
809.747
1053.367
1224.670
1391.337
1444.467
1608.627
1772.066
1867.520
1935.214
alpha =
.58454E-02
.67435E+03
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.56965E-02
G O O D N E S S
u
OF
F I T
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
402.476
441.422
477.960
524.156
587.027
734.906
933.875
1065.610
1191.972
1232.056
1355.536
1478.104
1549.577
1600.225
39.204
36.056
33.553
31.178
29.703
34.843
53.504
68.652
84.001
88.970
104.475
120.074
129.236
135.751
.67057E+03
T E S T S
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
486.200
518.423
549.614
590.739
650.461
809.318
1048.137
1212.222
1371.364
1422.060
1578.653
1734.534
1825.572
1890.133
Fitting method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
relat.dev
4.13167
3.80015
mean
sq.rel.dev.
21.90831
17.99295
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
Fitting Method
______________
GUMBEL EVI
7.00
Chi-square value
________________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
2.00000
2.00000
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
---------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
592.944
.400
689.307
.600
789.263
.800
930.943
.972
1284.972
T I T L E: Had Venecia
Descriptor
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
399.2173
.6434E+05
253.6486
1.2350
4.2001
1.3739
5.2115
5.7968
.4297
.6555
-.3296
2.9275
-.3667
3.6324
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
66.50
113.00
127.30
162.50
168.50
168.60
175.00
197.40
269.00
296.10
322.00
326.70
345.50
350.50
368.60
EVALUATION
value
of ln(x)
4.19720
4.72739
4.84655
5.09068
5.12694
5.12753
5.16479
5.28523
5.59471
5.69070
5.77455
5.78904
5.84499
5.85936
5.90971
t-VALUE
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
372.40
389.40
394.00
394.00
394.00
434.20
449.10
457.60
475.00
754.00
790.00
790.00
876.40
1150.00
5.91997
5.96461
5.97635
5.97635
5.97635
6.07351
6.10725
6.12600
6.16331
6.62539
6.67203
6.67203
6.77582
7.04752
53.3333
56.6667
60.0000
63.3333
66.6667
70.0000
73.3333
76.6667
80.0000
83.3333
86.6667
90.0000
93.3333
96.6667
A N A L Y S I S
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
---maximum likelihood---
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.50562E-02
Est.
value
X
T
-16.955
26.922
68.085
120.129
190.960
357.561
581.718
730.130
872.490
917.649
1056.761
1194.846
1275.367
1332.427
St.Error
-------S
T
68.119
61.362
55.473
48.901
42.284
43.234
72.807
98.338
124.225
132.592
158.658
184.824
200.171
211.077
u
.28508E+03
Return per.
Years
(T=1/p)
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.56449E-02
G O O D N E S S
Est.
value
X
T
20.112
59.414
96.286
142.904
206.351
355.584
556.373
689.314
816.833
857.284
981.893
1105.583
1177.710
1228.822
u
OF
F I T
St.Error
-------S
T
43.463
39.973
37.198
34.565
32.930
38.629
59.317
76.110
93.127
98.636
115.826
133.119
143.276
150.499
.29066E+03
T E S T S
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
113.729
145.514
176.408
217.356
277.282
438.789
684.138
853.251
1017.424
1069.740
1231.377
1392.315
1486.319
1552.989
Fitting method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
relat.dev
mean
sq.rel.dev.
11.96651
11.06825
202.06060
178.10960
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
5.80
Chi-square value
________________
5.31034
7.03448
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Max. Likelihood
Fitting Method : Method of Moments
------------------------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
.400
.600
.800
.967
T I T L E: La Miel
190.960
302.365
417.923
581.718
954.386
.200
.400
.600
.800
.967
206.351
306.142
409.654
556.373
890.191
lnx-stat
55.4857
.2154E+04
46.4104
.8345
2.6255
1.3630
7.5045
3.6781
.8523
.9232
.0143
1.4650
.0234
4.1874
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
62.5000
75.0000
87.5000
Return per.
Years
(T=1/p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
Est.
value
X
T
-20.662
-12.634
-5.102
4.421
17.381
47.864
88.878
116.033
142.081
150.344
175.797
201.063
215.796
226.236
St.Error
-------S
T
25.369
22.852
20.659
18.212
15.747
16.101
27.115
36.623
46.264
49.380
59.087
68.832
74.548
78.609
-86.922
-72.321
-59.061
-43.146
-23.750
5.809
18.057
20.378
21.246
21.370
21.468
21.281
21.086
20.918
.27634E-01
45.598
47.054
48.857
51.987
58.511
89.918
159.699
211.688
262.916
279.318
330.126
380.844
410.505
431.554
.34601E+02
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
Est.
value
X
T
-11.606
-4.687
1.804
10.010
21.179
47.450
82.796
106.199
St.Error
-------S
T
15.573
14.323
13.328
12.385
11.799
13.841
21.254
27.271
-52.281
-42.096
-33.008
-22.338
-9.639
11.299
27.285
34.971
29.070
32.722
36.616
42.358
51.998
83.601
138.308
177.427
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.32066E-01
G O O D N E S S
128.647
135.768
157.704
179.478
192.175
201.173
u
OF
F I T
33.368
35.342
41.501
47.698
51.337
53.925
41.494
43.459
49.308
54.897
58.089
60.327
.36020E+02
T E S T S
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
T I T L E: Magangue
Fitting method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
relat.dev
32.87561
33.17660
mean
sq.rel.dev.
2155.47000
2468.83200
215.801
228.077
266.100
304.059
326.261
342.018
8087.6670
.2481E+07
1575.2780
.5930
4.2190
.6415
4.9444
lnx-stat
8.9798
.0378
.1944
-.1113
3.2267
-.1204
3.7815
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
5208.00
5435.00
5752.00
5878.00
5891.00
6270.00
6587.00
6661.00
6814.00
7360.00
7376.00
7483.00
7519.00
7661.00
7666.00
7752.00
7824.00
7824.00
8084.00
8130.00
EVALUATION
value
of ln(x)
8.55795
8.60061
8.65730
8.67897
8.68118
8.74353
8.79285
8.80402
8.82673
8.90382
8.90599
8.92039
8.92519
8.94390
8.94455
8.95571
8.96495
8.96495
8.99764
9.00332
t-VALUE
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
8292.00
8305.00
8327.00
8381.00
8440.00
8537.00
8568.00
8849.00
8890.00
8992.00
9025.00
9086.00
9110.00
9380.00
9540.00
9850.00
10503.00
11127.00
13042.00
9.02305
9.02461
9.02726
9.03372
9.04074
9.05217
9.05579
9.08806
9.09268
9.10409
9.10775
9.11449
9.11713
9.14633
9.16325
9.19523
9.25942
9.31713
9.47593
52.5000
55.0000
57.5000
60.0000
62.5000
65.0000
67.5000
70.0000
72.5000
75.0000
77.5000
80.0000
82.5000
85.0000
87.5000
90.0000
92.5000
95.0000
97.5000
A N A L Y S I S
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.81414E-03
alpha =
---maximum likelihood---
Est.
value
X
T
5503.041
5775.536
6031.176
6354.396
6794.289
7828.959
9221.084
10142.790
11026.920
11307.370
12171.320
13028.900
13528.970
13883.340
St.Error
-------S
T
364.802
328.615
297.078
261.884
226.448
231.534
389.911
526.638
665.272
710.081
849.675
989.805
1071.995
1130.398
u
Return per.
Years
(T=1/p)
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.71969E-03
G O O D N E S S
Est.
value
X
T
5221.923
5530.192
5819.394
6185.047
6682.691
7853.198
9428.088
10470.800
11471.000
11788.270
12765.650
13735.810
14301.530
14702.430
OF
F I T
St.Error
-------S
T
293.967
270.360
251.591
233.783
222.727
261.270
401.192
514.777
629.871
667.130
783.397
900.362
969.060
1017.911
.73439E+04
T E S T S
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
Fitting method
mean
mean
__________________
______________
relat.dev
sq.rel.dev.
GUMBEL EVI
Moments
3.70673
21.66803
Max.Likelihood
3.49842
16.72507
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
7.80
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
Chi-square value
________________
5.74359
9.07692
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
Fitting Method : Max. Likelihood
------------------------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
6794.289
.200
6682.691
.400
7486.167
.400
7465.402
.600
8203.836
.600
8277.291
.800
9221.084
.800
9428.088
.975
11894.120
.975
12452.050
T I T L E: Montelibano
874.3185
.4415E+05
210.1225
.5908
2.1806
.6405
2.5666
lnx-stat
6.7465
.0545
.2334
.2901
1.9871
.3144
2.3389
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
583.00
617.90
632.00
637.20
640.00
642.50
649.00
659.60
675.00
710.00
719.40
735.20
740.80
768.00
796.10
804.30
807.10
817.50
822.50
value
of ln(x)
6.36819
6.42633
6.44889
6.45708
6.46147
6.46537
6.47543
6.49163
6.51471
6.56527
6.57842
6.60014
6.60773
6.64379
6.67972
6.68997
6.69345
6.70625
6.71235
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
825.00
842.90
845.00
870.00
906.90
923.70
923.70
948.30
958.00
979.50
1043.00
1089.00
1185.00
1199.00
1218.00
1237.00
1240.00
1249.00
1284.00
6.71538
6.73685
6.73934
6.76849
6.81003
6.82839
6.82839
6.85467
6.86485
6.88704
6.94986
6.99302
7.07750
7.08924
7.10497
7.12044
7.12287
7.13010
7.15774
51.2821
53.8462
56.4103
58.9744
61.5385
64.1026
66.6667
69.2308
71.7949
74.3590
76.9231
79.4872
82.0513
84.6154
87.1795
89.7436
92.3077
94.8718
97.4359
EVALUATION
t-VALUE
**two-tail Student t-value**
degrees of freedom =
37
level of significance= .0400
t - v a l u e
= 2.129
F R E Q U E N C Y
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.61036E-02
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
529.562
565.909
600.008
643.122
701.798
839.810
1025.502
1148.447
1266.378
1303.787
1419.028
1533.417
1600.121
1647.390
49.296
44.406
40.145
35.389
30.600
31.288
52.689
71.165
89.899
95.954
114.818
133.754
144.860
152.752
u
634.500
660.438
685.465
718.455
766.937
906.413
1137.663
1299.938
1457.748
1508.047
1663.443
1818.142
1908.488
1972.557
.77976E+03
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.61794E-02
G O O D N E S S
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
530.521
566.424
600.106
642.692
700.651
836.975
1020.396
1141.837
1258.326
1295.277
1409.108
1522.099
1587.986
1634.677
34.685
31.899
29.685
27.584
26.279
30.827
47.336
60.738
74.317
78.714
92.432
106.232
114.338
120.102
OF
F I T
.77766E+03
T E S T S
604.355
634.329
663.297
701.410
756.592
902.597
1121.161
1271.131
1416.527
1462.837
1605.870
1748.239
1831.380
1890.341
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
relat.dev
3.33197
3.31202
mean
sq.rel.dev.
20.12521
20.75140
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
7.60
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
Chi-square value
________________
2.00000
2.00000
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
Fitting Method : Max. Likelihood
------------------------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
701.798
.200
700.651
.400
794.086
.400
791.810
.600
889.814
.600
886.367
.800
1025.502
.800
1020.396
.974
1377.851
.974
1368.435
T I T L E: Nario
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
3574.7650
.4760E+06
689.9581
.7217
3.4084
.7900
4.0922
8.1642
.0356
.1887
.1252
3.4462
.1370
4.1376
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
2124.00
2772.00
2909.00
2927.00
3008.00
3049.00
3092.00
3107.00
3108.00
3130.00
3165.00
3184.00
3232.00
3272.00
3277.00
3309.00
3354.00
value
of ln(x)
7.66106
7.92732
7.97556
7.98173
8.00903
8.02257
8.03657
8.04141
8.04173
8.04879
8.05991
8.06589
8.08086
8.09316
8.09468
8.10440
8.11791
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
3391.00
3432.00
3434.00
3496.00
3687.00
3715.00
3856.00
3892.00
4013.00
4126.00
4141.00
4370.00
4392.00
4423.00
4830.00
4890.00
5435.00
8.12888
8.14090
8.14148
8.15938
8.21257
8.22013
8.25739
8.26668
8.29729
8.32506
8.32869
8.38252
8.38754
8.39457
8.48260
8.49495
8.60061
51.4286
54.2857
57.1429
60.0000
62.8571
65.7143
68.5714
71.4286
74.2857
77.1429
80.0000
82.8571
85.7143
88.5714
91.4286
94.2857
97.1429
EVALUATION
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.18588E-02
Est.
value
X
T
2442.721
2562.071
2674.040
2815.607
3008.276
3461.453
4071.192
4474.892
4862.131
4984.968
5363.372
5738.981
5958.008
6113.220
St.Error
-------S
T
171.126
154.151
139.357
122.848
106.225
108.611
182.904
247.042
312.074
333.093
398.576
464.310
502.865
530.261
u
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.17134E-02
G O O D N E S S
OF
F I T
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
2367.807
2497.290
2618.764
2772.349
2981.375
3473.024
4134.527
4572.499
4992.613
5125.878
5536.407
5943.903
6181.525
6349.914
132.243
121.623
113.180
105.169
100.195
117.534
180.479
231.576
283.352
300.113
352.416
405.034
435.938
457.914
.32591E+04
T E S T S
2650.566
2757.341
2860.761
2997.218
3195.610
3724.332
4520.421
5067.648
5598.467
5767.571
6289.933
6809.935
7113.635
7329.012
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
Fitting method
mean
__________________
______________
relat.dev
GUMBEL EVI
Moments
2.92745
Max.Likelihood
2.74672
mean
sq.rel.dev.
20.96819
17.65468
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
Fitting Method
______________
GUMBEL EVI
6.80
Chi-square value
________________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
4.23529
5.70588
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
---------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
3008.276
.400
3311.313
.600
3625.646
.800
4071.192
.971
5169.143
T I T L E: Paicol
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
1064.8310
.9378E+05
306.2323
1.3100
6.5195
1.4172
7.6404
6.9330
.0774
.2783
-.1471
4.7425
-.1591
5.5579
52.5000
55.0000
57.5000
60.0000
62.5000
65.0000
67.5000
70.0000
72.5000
75.0000
77.5000
80.0000
82.5000
85.0000
87.5000
90.0000
92.5000
95.0000
97.5000
EVALUATION
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.41880E-02
Est.
value
X
T
562.382
615.355
665.051
727.885
813.399
1014.538
1285.166
1464.345
1636.218
1690.738
1858.689
2025.401
2122.614
2191.504
St.Error
-------S
T
70.917
63.882
57.752
50.910
44.021
45.010
75.798
102.378
129.328
138.039
165.176
192.417
208.395
219.748
u
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.39951E-02
G O O D N E S S
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
547.491
603.023
655.121
720.991
810.639
1021.498
1305.204
1493.043
1673.222
1730.377
1906.445
2081.213
2183.124
2255.343
52.956
48.704
45.322
42.115
40.123
47.066
72.272
92.734
113.467
120.179
141.124
162.194
174.570
183.370
OF
F I T
.92976E+03
T E S T S
660.112
706.601
751.508
810.556
895.968
1121.593
1458.904
1690.258
1914.531
1985.960
2206.571
2426.149
2554.379
2645.313
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
Fitting method
mean
__________________
______________
relat.dev
GUMBEL EVI
Moments
Max.Likelihood
4.28849
4.50949
mean
sq.rel.dev.
64.55740
60.87723
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
7.80
Chi-square value
________________
3.43590
3.43590
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
Fitting Method : Max. Likelihood
------------------------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
813.399
.200
810.639
.400
947.900
.400
951.639
.600
1087.414
.600
1097.896
.800
1285.166
.800
1305.204
.975
1804.801
.975
1849.953
T I T L E: Piedras de Cobre
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
1821.6900
.2836E+06
532.5285
.2305
2.0593
.2479
2.3854
lnx-stat
7.4640
.0916
.3027
-.2153
2.0483
-.2316
2.3726
51.1628
53.4884
55.8140
58.1395
60.4651
62.7907
65.1163
67.4419
69.7674
72.0930
74.4186
76.7442
79.0698
81.3953
83.7209
86.0465
88.3721
90.6977
93.0233
95.3488
97.6744
EVALUATION
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.24083E-02
Est.
value
X
T
947.948
1040.066
1126.486
1235.752
1384.459
1734.233
2204.846
2516.433
2815.315
2910.124
3202.186
3492.092
3661.143
3780.940
St.Error
-------S
T
118.837
107.049
96.775
85.311
73.767
75.424
127.016
171.556
216.717
231.314
276.787
322.436
349.210
368.235
u
.15821E+04
---maximum likelihood---
Return per.
Years
(T=1/p)
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.21881E-02
G O O D N E S S
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
867.577
968.967
1064.087
1184.351
1348.027
1733.010
2250.996
2593.947
2922.914
3027.267
3348.729
3667.816
3853.885
3985.740
93.170
85.688
79.739
74.095
70.591
82.806
127.153
163.153
199.630
211.439
248.289
285.359
307.132
322.615
OF
F I T
.15655E+04
T E S T S
1065.206
1150.726
1233.227
1341.520
1497.764
1908.658
2520.710
2940.023
3346.366
3475.768
3875.394
4273.115
4505.368
4670.065
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
relat.dev
5.36664
4.09876
mean
sq.rel.dev.
42.20477
25.64500
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
Fitting Method
______________
GUMBEL EVI
8.40
Chi-square value
________________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
3.23810
1.33333
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
---------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
.400
.600
.800
.977
1384.459
1618.351
1860.962
2204.846
3138.874
1348.027
1605.463
1872.495
2250.995
3279.043
T I T L E: Pte Santander
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
2029.9090
.3220E+06
567.4193
.3742
2.4814
.3955
2.7740
7.5765
.0819
.2862
-.2231
2.5829
-.2358
2.8875
1 =
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
938.00
1137.00
1144.00
1282.00
1289.00
1345.00
1422.00
1422.00
1464.00
1471.00
1513.00
1558.00
1559.00
1597.00
1627.00
1658.00
1658.00
1706.00
1730.00
value
of ln(x)
6.84375
7.03615
7.04229
7.15618
7.16162
7.20415
7.25982
7.25982
7.28893
7.29370
7.32185
7.35116
7.35180
7.37588
7.39449
7.41337
7.41337
7.44191
7.45588
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
1730.00
1730.00
1800.00
1835.00
1905.00
1926.00
1954.00
1963.00
1967.00
1968.00
1989.00
1990.00
2037.00
2078.00
2094.00
2136.00
2165.00
2208.00
2228.00
7.45588
7.45588
7.49554
7.51480
7.55224
7.56320
7.57763
7.58223
7.58426
7.58477
7.59539
7.59589
7.61923
7.63916
7.64683
7.66669
7.68018
7.69984
7.70886
35.7143
37.5000
39.2857
41.0714
42.8571
44.6429
46.4286
48.2143
50.0000
51.7857
53.5714
55.3571
57.1429
58.9286
60.7143
62.5000
64.2857
66.0714
67.8571
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
2392.00
2400.00
2450.00
2486.00
2514.00
2534.00
2582.00
2640.00
2722.00
EVALUATION
7.77989
7.78322
7.80384
7.81843
7.82963
7.83755
7.85632
7.87853
7.90912
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
69.6429
71.4286
73.2143
75.0000
76.7857
78.5714
80.3571
82.1429
83.9286
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
2743.00
2750.00
2752.00
2761.00
3018.00
3049.00
3247.00
3382.00
7.91681
7.91936
7.92008
7.92335
8.01235
8.02257
8.08549
8.12622
85.7143
87.5000
89.2857
91.0714
92.8571
94.6429
96.4286
98.2143
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
1098.920
1197.073
1289.156
1405.580
110.651
99.675
90.109
79.434
1331.792
1406.845
1478.796
1572.754
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
1564.031
1936.722
2438.169
2770.171
3088.635
3189.656
3500.854
3809.754
3989.881
4117.527
68.686
70.228
118.267
159.739
201.789
215.380
257.722
300.226
325.155
342.870
.22602E-02
1419.478
1788.922
2189.269
2433.991
2663.958
2736.375
2958.463
3177.911
3305.572
3395.937
=
1708.584
2084.522
2687.069
3106.350
3513.311
3642.936
4043.244
4441.597
4674.189
4839.117
.17746E+04
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
.20512E-02
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
1015.162
1123.321
1224.790
1353.082
1527.684
1938.365
2490.927
2856.771
3207.698
3319.016
3661.936
4002.324
4200.813
4341.470
86.852
79.878
74.332
69.071
65.804
77.192
118.531
152.090
186.094
197.103
231.453
266.011
286.307
300.740
.17597E+04
1197.948
1291.428
1381.226
1498.446
1666.174
2100.820
2740.384
3176.854
3599.345
733.830
4149.044
4562.159
4803.363
4974.396
G O O D N E S S
OF
F I T
T E S T S
Fitting Method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
sq.rel.dev.
26.98011
13.12438
Chi-square value
________________
3.09091
.72727
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Max. Likelihood
Fitting Method : Method of Moments
------------------------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
.400
.600
.800
.982
1564.031
1813.247
2071.754
2438.169
3551.474
.200
.400
.600
.800
.982
1527.684
1802.304
2087.162
2490.927
3717.717
T I T L E: Pto Araujo
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
1437.0490
.1380E+06
371.4431
.8382
3.2351
.8945
3.6877
lnx-stat
7.2395
.0619
.2488
.2350
2.8191
.2508
3.2135
45.8333
47.9167
50.0000
52.0833
54.1667
56.2500
58.3333
60.4167
62.5000
64.5833
66.6667
68.7500
70.8333
72.9167
75.0000
77.0833
79.1667
81.2500
83.3333
85.4167
87.5000
43 =
44 =
45 =
2030.00
2110.00
2158.00
EVALUATION
7.61579
7.65444
7.67694
46 =
47 =
89.5833
91.6667
93.7500
2316.00
2415.00
7.74760
7.78945
95.8333
97.9167
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
827.606
891.859
952.138
1028.352
1132.076
1376.047
1704.303
1921.638
2130.110
2196.240
78.357
70.584
63.810
56.251
48.639
49.732
83.750
113.118
142.895
152.520
993.224
1041.049
1087.010
1147.246
1234.882
1481.162
1881.321
2160.729
2432.140
2518.613
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.980
.990
.993
.995
2399.956
2602.168
2720.083
2803.642
182.504
212.602
230.256
242.801
.34527E-02
2014.208
2152.802
2233.403
2290.447
2785.704
3051.534
3206.762
3316.836
.12699E+04
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.34374E-02
G O O D N E S S
Est.
value
X
T
824.764
889.307
949.857
1026.415
1130.608
1375.679
1705.416
1923.731
2133.144
2199.573
2404.208
2607.331
2725.778
2809.714
u
OF
F I T
St.Error
-------S
T
56.066
51.564
47.984
44.588
42.479
49.830
76.516
98.179
120.130
127.237
149.411
171.719
184.821
194.138
=
.12691E+04
T E S T S
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting method
______________
mean
relat.dev
Moments
2.69695
Max.Likelihood
2.66668
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of classes : 5
The expected absolute frequency :
Freq.Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting Method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
mean
sq.rel.dev.
11.88485
11.53481
9.40
Chi-square value
________________
3.74468
3.74468
>>CLASS INTERVALS<<
--------------Fitting Method : Method of Moments
Fitting Method : Max. Likelihood
------------------------------PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
PROB.
GUMBEL EVI
.200
1132.076134
.200
1130.608
.400
1295.218
.400
1294.485
.600
1464.441
.600
1464.472
.800
1704.303
.800
1705.416
.979
2388.010
.979
2392.208
T I T L E: Pto Berrio
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
5573.9080
.1231E+07
1109.6190
.4157
3.1124
.4326
3.3722
lnx-stat
8.6063
.0401
.2002
-.1463
2.9239
-.1522
3.1681
28.5714
29.8701
31.1688
32.4675
33.7662
35.0649
36.3636
37.6623
38.9610
40.2597
41.5584
42.8571
44.1558
45.4545
46.7532
48.0519
49.3507
50.6493
51.9481
53.2468
54.5455
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
5666.00
5680.00
5870.00
5870.00
5870.00
5910.00
5997.00
6030.00
6061.00
6061.00
6061.00
6100.00
6161.00
6170.00
6207.00
6298.00
6300.00
EVALUATION
8.64224
8.64471
8.67761
8.67761
8.67761
8.68440
8.69901
8.70450
8.70963
8.70963
8.70963
8.71604
8.72599
8.72745
8.73343
8.74799
8.74831
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
55.8442
57.1429
58.4416
59.7403
61.0390
62.3377
63.6364
64.9351
66.2338
67.5325
68.8312
70.1299
71.4286
72.7273
74.0260
75.3247
76.6234
t-VALUE
F R E Q U E N C Y
A N A L Y S I S
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
6361.00
6361.00
6363.00
6372.00
6421.00
6561.00
6572.00
6850.00
6937.00
7001.00
7301.00
7339.00
7468.00
7600.00
7917.00
8376.00
8645.00
8.75794
8.75794
8.75826
8.75967
8.76733
8.78890
8.79057
8.83200
8.84462
8.85381
8.89577
8.90096
8.91838
8.93590
8.97677
9.03313
9.06474
77.9221
79.2208
80.5195
81.8182
83.1169
84.4156
85.7143
87.0130
88.3117
89.6104
90.9091
92.2078
93.5065
94.8052
96.1039
97.4026
98.7013
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.11558E-02
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
Est.
value
X
T
3753.308
3945.252
4125.324
4352.999
4662.857
5391.675
6372.282
7021.530
7644.303
7841.855
8450.420
9054.491
9406.739
9656.357
St.Error
-------S
T
184.077
165.817
149.904
132.145
114.264
116.831
196.747
265.739
335.692
358.303
428.741
499.450
540.923
570.392
u
Est.
value
X
T
3536.041
3754.969
3960.355
4220.036
4573.455
5404.729
6523.191
7263.709
7974.033
8199.356
8893.473
St.Error
-------S
T
149.553
137.543
127.994
118.935
113.310
132.918
204.102
261.888
320.441
339.396
398.546
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.010
.007
.005
.990
.993
.995
.10134E-02
G O O D N E S S
OF
9582.464
9984.231
10268.940
u
F I T
458.051
493.000
517.852
.50431E+04
8625.097
8953.817
9186.583
10539.830
11014.650
11351.300
T E S T S
T I T L E: Pto Salgar
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
4271.1410
.4485E+06
669.6877
.9082
4.3593
.9524
4.7962
8.3482
.0229
.1513
.3768
3.4320
.3952
3.7759
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
2891.00
3387.00
3399.00
3444.00
3455.00
3487.00
3500.00
3520.00
3558.00
3563.00
3648.00
3654.00
3671.00
3715.00
3730.00
3760.00
3820.00
3846.00
value
of ln(x)
7.96936
8.12770
8.13124
8.14439
8.14758
8.15680
8.16052
8.16622
8.17695
8.17836
8.20193
8.20358
8.20822
8.22013
8.22416
8.23217
8.24801
8.25479
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
3859.00
3880.00
3884.00
3893.00
3950.00
3950.00
3951.00
4010.00
4015.00
4020.00
4181.00
4210.00
4210.00
4210.00
4275.00
4340.00
4340.00
4394.00
4400.00
8.25816
8.26359
8.26462
8.26694
8.28147
8.28147
8.28172
8.29655
8.29779
8.29904
8.33831
8.34522
8.34522
8.34522
8.36054
8.37563
8.37563
8.38800
8.38936
29.2308
30.7692
32.3077
33.8462
35.3846
36.9231
38.4615
40.0000
41.5385
43.0769
44.6154
46.1538
47.6923
49.2308
50.7692
52.3077
53.8462
55.3846
56.9231
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
4400.00
4425.00
4435.00
4460.00
4460.00
4460.00
4503.00
4520.00
4525.00
4540.00
4559.00
4580.00
4588.00
4710.00
EVALUATION
8.38936
8.39503
8.39728
8.40290
8.40290
8.40290
8.41250
8.41627
8.41737
8.42068
8.42486
8.42945
8.43120
8.45744
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
58.4615
60.0000
61.5385
63.0769
64.6154
66.1538
67.6923
69.2308
70.7692
72.3077
73.8462
75.3846
76.9231
78.4615
t-VALUE
**two-tail Student t-value**
degrees of freedom =
63
level of significance= .0400
t - v a l u e
= 2.097
F R E Q U E N C Y
A N A L Y S I S
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
4750.00
4750.00
4750.00
4764.00
4970.00
5003.00
5035.00
5058.00
5100.00
5580.00
5857.00
6042.00
6509.00
8.46590
8.46590
8.46590
8.46884
8.51118
8.51779
8.52417
8.52873
8.53700
8.62694
8.67539
8.70649
8.78094
80.0000
81.5385
83.0769
84.6154
86.1538
87.6923
89.2308
90.7692
92.3077
93.8462
95.3846
96.9231
98.4615
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.19151E-02
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
Est.
value
X
T
3172.355
3288.199
3396.878
3534.286
3721.295
4161.158
4752.983
5144.823
5520.685
5639.914
6007.200
6371.774
6584.367
6735.019
St.Error
-------S
T
121.064
109.055
98.589
86.909
75.149
76.837
129.397
174.771
220.778
235.649
281.975
328.479
355.754
375.136
u
Est.
value
X
T
3126.138
3248.102
3362.522
3507.189
3704.077
4167.176
4790.266
5202.805
5598.523
5724.050
6110.739
St.Error
-------S
T
90.791
83.500
77.703
72.203
68.789
80.692
123.907
158.987
194.533
206.041
241.949
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.010
.007
.005
.990
.993
.995
6494.573
6718.396
6877.006
.18190E-02
G O O D N E S S
u
OF
F I T
278.074
5911.409
299.291
6090.737
314.378
6217.707
=
.39657E+04
7077.737
7346.055
7536.306
T E S T S
T I T L E: Purificacion
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
2962.2890
.5695E+06
754.6566
.5458
2.4406
.5788
2.7464
7.9627
.0627
.2504
.1583
2.0230
.1679
2.2765
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
value
of x
1849.00
1950.00
2020.00
2033.00
2037.00
2050.00
2102.00
2140.00
2167.00
2226.00
2238.00
2287.00
2305.00
2310.00
2402.00
2408.00
2433.00
2465.00
2517.00
value
of ln(x)
7.52240
7.57558
7.61085
7.61727
7.61923
7.62560
7.65064
7.66856
7.68110
7.70796
7.71334
7.73500
7.74284
7.74500
7.78406
7.78655
7.79688
7.80995
7.83082
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
2552.00
2595.00
2661.00
2688.00
2755.00
2758.00
2781.00
2843.00
3000.00
3020.00
3102.00
3160.00
3163.00
3234.00
3240.00
3268.00
3280.00
3319.00
3350.00
7.84463
7.86134
7.88646
7.89655
7.92117
7.92226
7.93057
7.95262
8.00637
8.01301
8.03980
8.05833
8.05928
8.08148
8.08333
8.09193
8.09560
8.10742
8.11672
37.7358
39.6226
41.5094
43.3962
45.2830
47.1698
49.0566
50.9434
52.8302
54.7170
56.6038
58.4906
60.3774
62.2642
64.1509
66.0377
67.9245
69.8113
71.6981
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
3374.00
3380.00
3420.00
3634.00
3745.00
3750.00
3978.00
EVALUATION
8.12385
8.12563
8.13740
8.19809
8.22818
8.22951
8.28853
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
73.5849
75.4717
77.3585
79.2453
81.1321
83.0189
84.9057
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
4006.00
4010.00
4099.00
4186.00
4439.00
4455.00
4855.00
8.29555
8.29655
8.31850
8.33950
8.39818
8.40178
8.48776
86.7924
88.6792
90.5660
92.4528
94.3396
96.2264
98.1132
t-VALUE
A N A L Y S I S
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
1724.091
1854.633
1977.101
2131.943
2342.680
2838.351
151.349
136.336
123.252
108.651
93.949
96.059
2043.079
2141.979
2236.870
2360.938
2540.688
3040.808
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
3505.266
3946.822
4370.373
4504.729
4918.616
5329.447
5569.013
5738.779
161.767
218.492
276.008
294.598
352.514
410.651
444.750
468.980
.16994E-02
3164.323
3486.323
3788.651
3883.826
4175.649
4463.949
4631.647
4750.345
=
3846.210
4407.321
4952.095
5125.632
5661.583
6194.945
6506.378
6727.213
.26227E+04
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
.16647E-02
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
1692.859
1826.132
1951.161
2109.243
2324.387
2830.426
3511.291
3962.083
4394.493
4531.659
4954.203
5373.627
5618.204
5791.521
110.063
101.224
94.197
87.529
83.390
97.821
150.208
192.735
235.827
249.776
293.307
337.100
362.820
381.110
u
.26103E+04
1924.831
2039.475
2149.693
2293.722
2500.142
3036.595
3827.873
4368.295
4891.527
5058.094
5572.385
6084.107
6382.894
6594.760
G O O D N E S S
OF
F I T
T E S T S
mean
sq.rel.dev.
14.53040
12.60475
T I T L E: San Pablo
BASIC STATISTICS OF x and lnx
Descriptor
x-stat
lnx-stat
mean =
var =
st.dev=
biasskew=
biaskurt=
skew =
kurt =
6873.8950
.1705E+07
1305.7480
.8460
3.0053
.9981
4.2102
8.8195
.0329
.1814
.5032
2.5659
.5937
3.5947
value
of x
value
of ln(x)
1 =
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
5039.00
=
5340.00
=
5720.00
=
5844.00
=
5870.00
=
6000.00
=
6133.00
=
6319.00
=
6336.00
=
6520.00
EVALUATION
8.52496
8.58298
8.65172
8.67317
8.67761
8.69951
8.72144
8.75132
8.75400
8.78263
5.0000
10.0000
15.0000
20.0000
25.0000
30.0000
35.0000
40.0000
45.0000
50.0000
t-VALUE
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
6926.00
7021.00
7195.00
7244.00
7303.00
8048.00
8886.00
8886.00
9974.00
8.84304
8.85666
8.88114
8.88793
8.89604
8.99318
9.09223
9.09223
9.20774
55.0000
60.0000
65.0000
70.0000
75.0000
80.0000
85.0000
90.0000
95.0000
F R E Q U E N C Y
A N A L Y S I S
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.98220E-03
Est.
value
X
T
4731.498
4957.369
5169.269
5437.186
5801.813
6659.452
7813.385
8577.389
9310.239
9542.710
10258.840
10969.680
11384.190
11677.930
St.Error
-------S
T
433.227
390.252
352.800
311.005
268.922
274.962
463.045
625.417
790.054
843.268
1009.046
1175.459
1273.065
1342.422
u
St.Error
-------S
T
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
Est.
value
X
T
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.10305E-02
G O O D N E S S
OF
4813.843
294.130
5029.128
270.510
5231.098
251.730
5486.458
233.912
5833.997
222.850
6651.441
261.414
7751.294
401.413
8479.492
515.061
9177.997
630.219
9399.572
667.498
10082.140
783.830
10759.670
900.859
11154.750
969.595
11434.720
1018.473
u
=
.62958E+04
F I T
4162.722
4430.295
4673.839
4968.642
5340.668
6072.744
6862.678
7339.291
7782.870
7921.918
8346.961
8765.419
9008.341
9180.111
T E S T S
5464.964
5627.960
5788.356
6004.274
6327.325
7230.139
8639.910
9619.693
10573.130
10877.230
11817.320
12753.920
13301.160
13689.340
lnx-stat
424.7600
.2104E+05
145.0607
-.0182
2.1364
-.0225
3.3015
5.9886
.1478
.3844
-.7118
2.8694
-.8800
4.4341
t-VALUE
56.2500
62.5000
68.7500
75.0000
81.2500
87.5000
93.7500
1.01010
1.02564
1.05263
1.11111
1.25000
2.00000
5.00000
10.00000
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
Probab.
Exc.
(p)
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
alpha =
.990
.975
.950
.900
.800
.500
.200
.100
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
Est.
value
X
T
St.Error
-------S
T
186.753
211.846
235.387
265.150
305.658
400.937
529.132
614.008
695.423
721.249
800.807
879.777
925.827
958.459
54.167
48.794
44.111
38.886
33.624
34.379
57.896
78.197
98.782
105.436
126.163
146.970
159.174
167.846
64.129
101.386
135.528
177.121
229.541
323.110
398.068
436.985
471.801
482.565
515.200
547.067
565.490
578.491
.88411E-02
Probab.
Non.Exc.
(1-p)
.010
.025
.050
.100
.200
.500
.800
.900
Est.
value
X
T
154.083
183.234
210.582
245.160
292.219
402.907
551.835
650.438
St.Error
-------S
T
44.824
41.225
38.363
35.647
33.961
39.838
61.174
78.493
309.376
322.305
335.245
353.179
381.776
478.764
660.195
791.030
919.046
959.933
1086.414
1212.487
1286.164
1338.428
.35948E+03
20.00000
25.00000
50.00000
100.00000
150.00000
200.00000
alpha =
.050
.040
.020
.010
.007
.005
.950
.960
.980
.990
.993
.995
.76106E-02
G O O D N E S S
OF
F I T
745.021
96.043
775.023
101.724
867.448
119.452
959.190
137.287
1012.687
147.762
1050.598
155.211
=
.35475E+03
527.600
544.742
597.033
648.400
678.184
699.232
T E S T S
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Chi-square Test~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE CHI-SQUARE TEST IS N O T APPLICABLE :
The number of classes is : 5
The expected absolute frequency is :
3.00
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~The Deviation Method~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Freq. Distribution
__________________
GUMBEL EVI
Fitting method
______________
Moments
Max.Likelihood
6.48718
mean
relat.dev
mean
sq.rel.dev.
8.66307
202.03560
98.34834
962.441
1005.305
1137.864
1269.980
1347.190
1401.963
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
4198.9670
360.6993
0.9900
100.0
3925.8020
316.7155
0.9800
50.0
3651.6370
272.8734
0.9600
25.0
3375.4310
229.1885
0.9000
10.0
3003.1150
171.7231
0.8000
5.0
2708.4460
128.7123
0.6670
3.0
2474.4210
98.2257
0.5000
2.0
2263.3850
77.1222
0.9930
142.9
4066.4490
339.3315
0.9500
20.0
3285.7690
215.1610
0.2000
1.3
1932.6010
70.6511
0.0990
1.1
1790.2570
80.0016
0.0490
1.1
1685.9950
90.1497
0.0250
1.0
1606.9070
99.1398
0.0090
1.0
1510.9080
111.1241
ARRANCAPLUMAS
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 3522.67
Second Moment = 2.925e05
Skew = 4.399e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0130
2480.0000
2750.1900
73.7300
2
0.0260
2512.0000
2816.5110
68.4369
3
0.0390
2645.0000
2861.4260
65.1131
4
0.0519
2666.0000
2896.8400
62.6671
5
0.0649
2740.0000
2926.7680
60.7351
6
0.0779
2815.0000
2953.0930
59.1483
7
0.0909
2827.0000
2976.8620
57.8138
8
0.1039
2847.0000
2998.7210
56.6746
9
0.1169
2891.0000
3019.1000
55.6934
10
0.1299
2925.0000
3038.3010
54.8440
11
0.1429
2985.0000
3056.5430
54.1077
12
0.1558
2985.0000
3073.9950
53.4706
13
0.1688
3044.0000
3090.7860
52.9218
14
0.1818
3056.0000
3107.0210
52.4531
15
0.1948
3063.0000
3122.7810
52.0578
16
0.2078
3088.0000
3138.1380
51.7305
17
0.2208
3116.0000
3153.1500
51.4668
18
0.2338
3145.0000
3167.8660
51.2632
19
0.2468
3145.0000
3182.3280
51.1167
20
0.2597
3145.0000
3196.5750
51.0247
21
0.2727
3152.0000
3210.6380
50.9851
22
0.2857
3165.0000
3224.5480
50.9962
23
0.2987
3192.0000
3238.3310
51.0563
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
0.3117
0.3247
0.3377
0.3506
0.3636
0.3766
0.3896
0.4026
0.4156
0.4286
0.4416
0.4545
0.4675
0.4805
0.4935
0.5065
0.5195
0.5325
0.5455
0.5584
0.5714
0.5844
0.5974
0.6104
0.6234
0.6364
0.6494
0.6623
0.6753
0.6883
0.7013
0.7143
0.7273
0.7403
0.7532
0.7662
0.7792
0.7922
0.8052
0.8182
0.8312
0.8442
0.8571
0.8701
0.8831
0.8961
0.9091
0.9221
0.9351
0.9481
0.9610
0.9740
3202.0000
3222.0000
3233.0000
3241.0000
3300.0000
3300.0000
3300.0000
3300.0000
3323.0000
3328.0000
3360.0000
3456.0000
3456.0000
3461.0000
3461.0000
3500.0000
3509.0000
3521.0000
3541.0000
3559.0000
3576.0000
3587.0000
3592.0000
3617.0000
3617.0000
3617.0000
3634.0000
3718.0000
3775.0000
3780.0000
3780.0000
3780.0000
3807.0000
3875.0000
3875.0000
3900.0000
3904.0000
3947.0000
4012.0000
4048.0000
4049.0000
4056.0000
4092.0000
4178.0000
4245.0000
4330.0000
4360.0000
4496.0000
4511.0000
4549.0000
4556.0000
4572.0000
3252.0110
3265.6090
3279.1480
3292.6450
3306.1200
3319.5880
3333.0680
3346.5760
3360.1270
3373.7360
3387.4200
3401.1940
3415.0740
3429.0760
3443.2170
3457.5140
3471.9840
3486.6460
3501.5190
3516.6240
3531.9830
3547.6200
3563.5580
3579.8270
3596.4540
3613.4720
3630.9180
3648.8280
3667.2470
3686.2230
3705.8090
3726.0660
3747.0640
3768.8790
3791.6040
3815.3420
3840.2170
3866.3710
3893.9790
3923.2450
3954.4250
3987.8320
4023.8610
4063.0200
4105.9790
4153.6440
4207.2840
4268.7590
4340.9500
4428.6840
4541.0100
4698.2420
51.1643
51.3189
51.5194
51.7649
52.0547
52.3885
52.7657
53.1860
53.6494
54.1558
54.7051
55.2976
55.9334
56.6129
57.3367
58.1053
58.9196
59.7803
60.6886
61.6457
62.6531
63.7123
64.8253
65.9941
67.2214
68.5097
69.8622
71.2826
72.7750
74.3439
75.9947
77.7335
79.5673
81.5043
83.5539
85.7274
88.0376
90.5001
93.1337
95.9607
99.0090
102.3129
105.9161
109.8746
114.2626
119.1807
124.7700
131.2377
138.9054
148.3128
160.4735
177.6672
76
0.9870
5086.0000
4965.1970
207.1876
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
5330.8800
248.0593
0.9900
100.0
5065.4830
218.3559
0.9800
50.0
4799.1150
188.7807
0.9600
25.0
4530.7650
159.3596
0.9000
10.0
4169.0380
120.7791
0.8000
5.0
3882.7490
92.0584
0.6670
3.0
3655.3800
71.8099
0.5000
2.0
3450.3450
57.7154
0.9930
142.9
5202.1300
233.6257
0.9500
20.0
4443.6530
149.9265
0.2000
1.3
3128.9690
51.9190
0.0990
1.1
2990.6740
57.0839
0.0490
1.1
2889.3770
63.1687
0.0250
1.0
2812.5380
68.7418
0.0090
1.0
2719.2690
76.3317
BALSEADERO
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 1419.22
Second Moment = 1.336e05
Skew = 8.888e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0238
748.0000
898.6782
67.6695
2
0.0476
883.4000
956.0013
61.5306
3
0.0714
946.8000
995.9430
57.6899
4
0.0952
992.0000
1028.1990
54.9103
5
0.1190
1034.0000
1056.0640
52.7790
6
0.1429
1077.0000
1081.0930
51.1053
7
0.1667
1080.0000
1104.1580
49.7854
8
0.1905
1100.0000
1125.8020
48.7568
9
0.2143
1105.0000
1146.3930
47.9792
10
0.2381
1144.0000
1166.1920
47.4256
11
0.2619
1176.0000
1185.3970
47.0767
12
0.2857
1204.0000
1204.1630
46.9189
13
0.3095
1238.0000
1222.6150
46.9419
14
0.3333
1240.0000
1240.8580
47.1382
15
0.3571
1266.0000
1258.9830
47.5020
16
0.3810
1268.0000
1277.0740
48.0289
17
0.4048
1271.0000
1295.2050
48.7160
18
0.4286
1288.0000
1313.4490
49.5612
19
0.4524
1365.0000
1331.8760
50.5638
20
0.4762
1372.0000
1350.5580
51.7241
21
0.5000
1391.0000
1369.5680
53.0436
22
0.5238
1411.0000
1388.9830
54.5253
23
0.5476
1411.0000
1408.8870
56.1738
24
0.5714
1471.0000
1429.3710
57.9955
25
0.5952
1472.0000
1450.5390
59.9992
26
0.6190
1482.0000
1472.5070
62.1964
27
0.6429
1520.0000
1495.4140
64.6019
28
0.6667
1534.0000
1519.4190
67.2348
29
0.6905
1562.0000
1544.7160
70.1195
30
0.7143
1568.0000
1571.5440
73.2874
31
0.7381
1576.0000
1600.1980
76.7792
32
0.7619
1638.0000
1631.0580
80.6485
33
0.7857
1641.0000
1664.6180
84.9667
34
0.8095
1651.0000
1701.5490
89.8322
35
0.8333
1702.0000
1742.7840
95.3837
36
0.8571
1801.0000
1789.6890
101.8258
37
0.8810
1832.0000
1844.3800
109.4777
38
0.9048
1891.0000
1910.3970
118.8755
39
0.9286
1936.0000
1994.3710
131.0281
40
0.9524
2352.0000
2111.1850
148.2063
41
0.9762
2548.0000
2308.3240
177.6789
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
2747.1290
244.4481
0.9900
100.0
2552.7160
214.7292
0.9800
50.0
2357.5920
185.1115
0.9600
25.0
2161.0150
155.6080
0.9000
10.0
1896.0370
116.8182
0.8000
5.0
1686.3200
87.8126
0.6670
3.0
1519.7630
67.2734
0.5000
2.0
1369.5680
53.0436
0.9930
142.9
2652.8150
230.0098
0.9500
20.0
2097.2030
146.1366
0.2000
1.3
1134.1480
48.4174
0.0990
1.1
1032.8420
54.5369
0.0490
1.1
958.6379
61.2650
0.0250
1.0
902.3503
67.2573
0.0090
1.0
834.0275
75.2730
BARRANCABERMEJA
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 6278.33
Second Moment = 5.319e05
Skew = -2.719e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.2500
5465.0000
4948.1870
631.3272
2
0.5000
6496.0000
6168.9950
388.5629
3
0.7500
6874.0000
7717.8180
1125.5010
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
14850.7400
5200.7120
0.9900
100.0
13625.5000
4495.1340
0.9800
50.0
12395.7800
3787.6520
0.9600
25.0
11156.9000
3076.0720
0.9000
10.0
9486.9400
2120.8130
0.8000
5.0
8165.2480
1373.6120
0.6670
3.0
7115.5650
801.7889
0.5000
2.0
6168.9950
388.5629
0.9930
142.9
14256.3500
4858.3540
0.9500
20.0
10754.7400
2845.4770
0.2000
1.3
4685.3180
762.8175
0.0990
1.1
4046.8590
1104.0620
0.0490
1.1
3579.2070
1363.0870
0.0250
1.0
3224.4680
1562.0530
0.0090
1.0
2793.8810
1805.3170
CALAMAR
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 11940.4
Second Moment = 5.285e06
Skew = 9.3e-02
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0227
7388.0000
8666.9710
415.5461
2
0.0455
7488.0000
9019.9890
378.5966
3
0.0682
8475.0000
9265.3330
355.4663
4
0.0909
8536.0000
9463.0280
338.6910
5
0.1136
8599.0000
9633.4570
325.7791
6
0.1364
9402.0000
9786.2320
315.5780
7
0.1591
9910.0000
9926.7340
307.4586
8
0.1818 10061.0000 10058.3200
301.0414
9
0.2045 10170.0000 10183.2300
296.0808
10
0.2273 10236.0000 10303.1000
292.4107
11
0.2500 10313.0000 10419.1200
289.9137
12
0.2727 10586.0000 10532.2200
288.5048
13
0.2955 10605.0000 10643.1600
288.1210
14
0.3182 10830.0000 10752.5800
288.7147
15
0.3409 10982.0000 10861.0000
290.2496
16
0.3636 11038.0000 10968.9100
292.6980
17
0.3864 11221.0000 11076.7400
296.0395
18
0.4091 11322.0000 11184.9000
300.2597
19
0.4318 11500.0000 11293.7700
305.3498
20
0.4545 11533.0000 11403.7400
311.3067
21
0.4773 11550.0000 11515.1900
318.1333
22
0.5000 11649.0000 11628.5300
325.8388
23
0.5227 11679.0000 11744.1800
334.4395
24
0.5455 11784.0000 11862.5800
343.9601
25
0.5682 11959.0000 11984.2300
354.4345
26
0.5909 12348.0000 12109.6900
365.9081
27
0.6136 12471.0000 12239.5800
378.4398
28
0.6364 13015.0000 12374.6100
392.1045
29
0.6591 13060.0000 12515.6200
406.9975
30
0.6818 13400.0000 12663.6100
423.2393
31
0.7045 13525.0000 12819.7800
440.9828
32
0.7273 13549.0000 12985.5900
460.4230
33
0.7500 13659.0000 13162.9000
481.8115
34
0.7727 13663.0000 13354.0600
505.4776
35
0.7955 13747.0000 13562.1600
531.8604
36
0.8182 13873.0000 13791.3700
561.5607
37
0.8409 14475.0000 14047.5200
595.4271
38
0.8636 14524.0000 14339.1300
634.7095
39
0.8864 14909.0000 14679.4100
681.3539
40
0.9091 15348.0000 15090.4400
738.6323
41
0.9318 15682.0000 15613.6400
812.6952
42
0.9545 16463.0000 16341.9200
917.3887
43
0.9773 16913.0000 17571.7500
1097.0290
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
20229.2800
1491.8730
0.9900
100.0
19015.4700
1310.7420
0.9800
50.0
17797.2200
1130.2420
0.9600
25.0
16569.9000
950.4591
0.9000
10.0
14915.5200
714.1458
0.8000
5.0
13606.1600
537.5122
0.6670
3.0
12566.2700
412.4896
0.5000
2.0
11628.5300
325.8388
0.9930
142.9
19640.4300
1403.8730
0.9500
20.0
16171.4900
892.7509
0.2000
1.3
10158.7000
296.9652
0.0990
1.1
9526.1970
333.7275
0.0490
1.1
9062.9090
374.3836
0.0250
1.0
8711.4800
410.6819
0.0090
1.0
8284.9090
459.3115
CANTERAS
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 1660.05
Second Moment = 1.348e05
Skew = 1.054e+00
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0263
1020.0000
1136.6510
71.6157
2
0.0526
1225.0000
1197.0130
64.8232
3
0.0789
1233.0000
1239.3180
60.5800
4
0.1053
1237.0000
1273.6550
57.5252
5
0.1316
1246.0000
1303.4600
55.2057
6
0.1579
1310.0000
1330.3560
53.4127
7
0.1842
1370.0000
1355.2570
52.0334
8
0.2105
1380.0000
1378.7350
51.0004
9
0.2368
1439.0000
1401.1790
50.2707
10
0.2632
1441.0000
1422.8680
49.8157
11
0.2895
1466.0000
1444.0180
49.6154
12
0.3158
1481.0000
1464.7970
49.6555
13
0.3421
1505.0000
1485.3470
49.9256
14
0.3684
1516.0000
1505.7890
50.4179
15
0.3947
1520.0000
1526.2330
51.1268
16
0.4211
1531.0000
1546.7800
52.0487
17
0.4474
1544.0000
1567.5280
53.1815
18
0.4737
1600.0000
1588.5750
54.5250
19
0.5000
1624.0000
1610.0220
56.0807
20
0.5263
1631.0000
1631.9740
57.8527
21
0.5526
1632.0000
1654.5480
59.8473
22
0.5789
1636.0000
1677.8730
62.0742
23
0.6053
1637.0000
1702.0950
64.5468
24
0.6316
1641.0000
1727.3860
67.2832
25
0.6579
1681.0000
1753.9500
70.3075
26
0.6842
1698.0000
1782.0330
73.6516
27
0.7105
1724.0000
1811.9420
77.3573
28
0.7368
1846.0000
1844.0700
81.4806
29
0.7632
1903.0000
1878.9240
86.0972
30
0.7895
1980.0000
1917.1910
91.3113
31
0.8158
1985.0000
1959.8290
97.2710
32
0.8421
2038.0000
2008.2350
104.1956
33
0.8684
2072.0000
2064.5740
112.4272
34
0.8947
2100.0000
2132.4610
122.5418
35
0.9211
2261.0000
2218.6770
135.6239
36
0.9474
2419.0000
2338.4280
154.1152
37
0.9737
2850.0000
2540.2310
185.8332
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
3017.5140
262.2887
0.9900
100.0
2818.8770
230.3051
0.9800
50.0
2619.5130
198.4246
0.9600
25.0
2418.6650
166.6583
0.9000
10.0
2147.9290
124.8714
0.8000
0.6670
0.5000
0.9930
0.9500
0.2000
0.0990
0.0490
0.0250
0.0090
5.0
3.0
2.0
142.9
20.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1933.6560
1763.4800
1610.0220
2921.1500
2353.4660
1369.4870
1265.9790
1190.1630
1132.6520
1062.8450
93.5954
71.4265
56.0807
246.7507
156.4580
51.3751
58.1745
65.5539
72.0912
80.8058
EL BANCO
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 6801.82
Second Moment = 1.959e06
Skew = 4.252e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0244
4034.0000
4807.9330
262.4140
2
0.0488
4821.0000
5029.9250
238.3560
3
0.0732
4972.0000
5184.8150
223.3092
4
0.0976
5280.0000
5310.0500
212.4324
5
0.1220
5284.0000
5418.3560
204.1103
6
0.1463
5370.0000
5515.7460
197.5974
7
0.1707
5415.0000
5605.5870
192.4884
8
0.1951
5583.0000
5689.9870
188.5395
9
0.2195
5611.0000
5770.3680
185.5945
10
0.2439
5658.0000
5847.7500
183.5478
11
0.2683
5750.0000
5922.9000
182.3256
12
0.2927
5940.0000
5996.4210
181.8747
13
0.3171
6078.0000
6068.8060
182.1559
14
0.3415
6099.0000
6140.4710
183.1398
15
0.3659
6233.0000
6211.7780
184.8045
16
0.3902
6331.0000
6283.0580
187.1338
17
0.4146
6378.0000
6354.6170
190.1166
18
0.4390
6443.0000
6426.7490
193.7466
19
0.4634
6576.0000
6499.7470
198.0221
20
0.4878
6600.0000
6573.9080
202.9465
21
0.5122
6638.0000
6649.5420
208.5287
22
0.5366
6643.0000
6726.9790
214.7844
23
0.5610
6650.0000
6806.5820
221.7363
24
0.5854
6661.0000
6888.7540
229.4165
25
0.6098
6791.0000
6973.9540
237.8677
26
0.6341
6902.0000
7062.7110
247.1458
27
0.6585
7048.0000
7155.6510
257.3233
28
0.6829
7145.0000
7253.5230
268.4936
29
0.7073
7655.0000
7357.2430
280.7776
30
0.7317
7710.0000
7467.9540
294.3325
31
0.7561
7900.0000
7587.1160
309.3654
32
0.7805
7900.0000
7716.6360
326.1541
33
0.8049
8262.0000
7859.0890
345.0796
34
0.8293
8452.0000
8018.0690
366.6815
35
0.8537
8665.0000
8198.8330
391.7560
36
0.8780
8820.0000
8409.5130
421.5439
37
0.9024
9005.0000
8663.7200
458.1326
38
0.9268
9458.0000
8986.9540
505.4482
39
0.9512
9612.0000
9436.4430
572.3300
40
0.9756
9700.0000 10194.7600
687.0732
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
11908.1500
951.0275
0.9900
100.0
11160.6400
835.3240
0.9800
50.0
10410.4000
720.0096
0.9600
25.0
9654.5810
605.1322
0.9000
10.0
8635.7580
454.0782
0.8000
5.0
7829.4100
341.1006
0.6670
3.0
7189.0110
261.0814
0.5000
2.0
6611.5210
205.6546
0.9930
142.9
11545.5200
894.8158
0.9500
20.0
9409.2270
568.2515
0.2000
1.3
5706.3480
187.8742
0.0990
1.1
5316.8320
211.8803
0.0490
1.1
5031.5230
238.1927
0.0250
1.0
4815.1010
261.5981
0.0090
1.0
4552.4050
292.8807
EL PROFUNDO
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 339.909
Second Moment = 2.4e04
Skew = 1.13e+00
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0185
124.0000
119.3358
25.2213
2
0.0370
154.0000
141.1138
23.1590
3
0.0556
154.0000
156.0915
21.8656
4
0.0741
158.1000
168.0531
20.9208
5
0.0926
167.7000
178.2801
20.1841
6
0.1111
172.1000
187.3751
19.5904
7
0.1296
186.2000
195.6743
19.1039
8
0.1481
188.1000
203.3861
18.7028
9
0.1667
192.8000
210.6500
18.3730
10
0.1852
203.6000
217.5644
18.1046
11
0.2037
204.0000
224.2021
17.8906
12
0.2222
207.5000
230.6186
17.7259
13
0.2407
211.0000
236.8579
17.6067
14
0.2593
227.0000
242.9556
17.5299
15
0.2778
234.6000
248.9411
17.4932
16
0.2963
241.6000
254.8395
17.4948
17
0.3148
244.0000
260.6725
17.5333
18
0.3333
252.4000
266.4593
17.6075
19
0.3519
257.2000
272.2172
17.7164
20
0.3704
267.0000
277.9622
17.8593
21
0.3889
273.8000
283.7090
18.0358
22
0.4074
279.2000
289.4719
18.2453
23
0.4259
283.3000
295.2646
18.4877
24
0.4444
291.0000
301.1007
18.7629
25
0.4630
296.1000
306.9938
19.0710
26
0.4815
298.0000
312.9577
19.4122
27
0.5000
303.5000
319.0067
19.7869
28
0.5185
316.9000
325.1557
20.1957
29
0.5370
319.6000
331.4206
20.6395
30
0.5556
320.0000
337.8184
21.1193
31
0.5741
331.6000
344.3676
21.6364
32
0.5926
343.6000
351.0885
22.1925
33
0.6111
354.5000
358.0037
22.7895
34
0.6296
355.0000
365.1383
23.4299
35
0.6481
356.5000
372.5211
24.1166
36
0.6667
359.7000
380.1850
24.8532
37
0.6852
364.0000
388.1677
25.6438
38
0.7037
372.0000
396.5136
26.4938
39
0.7222
416.9000
405.2755
27.4094
40
0.7407
449.0000
414.5164
28.3983
41
0.7593
461.2000
424.3129
29.4701
42
0.7778
467.6000
434.7597
30.6369
43
0.7963
467.6000
445.9760
31.9140
44
0.8148
475.4000
458.1147
33.3212
45
0.8333
504.0000
471.3764
34.8849
46
0.8519
524.8000
486.0328
36.6407
47
0.8704
530.0000
502.4643
38.6391
48
0.8889
556.8000
521.2274
40.9539
49
0.9074
560.0000
543.1844
43.7000
50
0.9259
560.0000
569.7797
47.0706
51
0.9444
626.7000
603.7196
51.4280
52
0.9630
650.0000
651.0800
57.5882
53
0.9815
900.0000
731.2457
68.1618
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
881.4122
88.2571
0.9900
100.0
802.0410
77.6009
0.9800
50.0
722.3790
66.9854
0.9600
25.0
642.1244
56.4174
0.9000
10.0
533.9439
42.5399
0.8000
5.0
448.3244
32.1843
0.6670
0.5000
0.9930
0.9500
0.2000
0.0990
0.0490
0.0250
0.0090
3.0
2.0
142.9
20.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
380.3257
319.0067
842.9073
616.0722
222.8938
181.5343
151.2397
128.2596
100.3661
24.8669
19.7869
83.0795
53.0268
17.9293
19.9647
22.2720
24.3529
27.1589
EL TABALAZO
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 2127.20
Second Moment = 5.63e05
Skew = 1.242e+00
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0200
931.0000
1059.1590
127.0136
2
0.0400
1007.0000
1168.0890
116.3044
3
0.0600
1285.0000
1243.2890
109.5919
4
0.0800
1328.0000
1303.5380
104.7000
5
0.1000
1453.0000
1355.2020
100.9017
6
0.1200
1454.0000
1401.2780
97.8601
7
0.1400
1459.0000
1443.4390
95.3904
8
0.1600
1475.0000
1482.7230
93.3806
9
0.1800
1475.0000
1519.8270
91.7574
10
0.2000
1527.0000
1555.2450
90.4709
11
0.2200
1530.0000
1589.3420
89.4856
12
0.2400
1700.0000
1622.3990
88.7754
13
0.2600
1706.0000
1654.6390
88.3208
14
0.2800
1720.0000
1686.2450
88.1069
15
0.3000
1734.0000
1717.3690
88.1221
16
0.3200
1734.0000
1748.1420
88.3573
17
0.3400
1763.0000
1778.6800
88.8055
18
0.3600
1815.0000
1809.0860
89.4612
19
0.3800
1831.0000
1839.4560
90.3201
20
0.4000
1849.0000
1869.8800
91.3792
21
0.4200
1850.0000
1900.4420
92.6365
22
0.4400
1855.0000
1931.2270
94.0909
23
0.4600
1890.0000
1962.3190
95.7426
24
0.4800
1908.0000
1993.8030
97.5928
25
0.5000
1940.0000
2025.7660
99.6438
26
0.5200
1946.0000
2058.3000
101.8993
27
0.5400
1990.0000
2091.5030
104.3646
28
0.5600
2031.0000
2125.4820
107.0463
29
0.5800
2099.0000
2160.3520
109.9533
30
0.6000
2128.0000
2196.2430
113.0966
31
0.6200
2160.0000
2233.2980
116.4898
32
0.6400
2238.0000
2271.6830
120.1497
33
0.6600
2260.0000
2311.5880
124.0970
34
0.6800
2275.0000
2353.2310
128.3569
35
0.7000
2275.0000
2396.8750
132.9608
36
0.7200
2325.0000
2442.8300
137.9470
37
0.7400
2330.0000
2491.4740
143.3636
38
0.7600
2456.0000
2543.2730
149.2711
39
0.7800
2495.0000
2598.8120
155.7469
40
0.8000
2515.0000
2658.8400
162.8913
41
0.8200
2545.0000
2724.3430
170.8376
42
0.8400
2611.0000
2796.6510
179.7673
43
0.8600
2893.0000
2877.6290
189.9362
44
0.8800
3050.0000
2970.0010
201.7201
45
0.9000
3371.0000
3077.9900
215.7039
46
0.9200
3510.0000
3208.6690
232.8695
47
0.9400
3904.0000
3375.2860
255.0624
48
0.9600
4300.0000
3607.5880
286.4359
49
0.9800
4307.0000
4000.4740
340.2807
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
4779.0210
448.6353
0.9900
100.0
4390.4590
394.3576
0.9800
50.0
4000.4740
340.2807
0.9600
25.0
3607.5880
286.4359
0.9000
10.0
3077.9900
215.7039
0.8000
5.0
2658.8400
162.8913
0.6670
3.0
2325.9530
125.5509
0.5000
2.0
2025.7660
99.6438
0.9930
142.9
4590.5200
422.2640
0.9500
20.0
3480.0490
269.1574
0.2000
1.3
1555.2450
90.4709
0.0990
1.1
1352.7700
101.0716
0.0490
1.1
1204.4630
112.9799
0.0250
1.0
1091.9640
123.6801
0.0090
1.0
955.4109
138.0746
GAMBOTE
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 773.082
Second Moment = 4.814e04
Skew = 4.625e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0278
458.4000
460.0876
44.0287
2
0.0556
488.0000
497.1229
39.7477
3
0.0833
504.0000
523.1644
37.0760
4
0.1111
519.4000
544.3629
35.1591
5
0.1389
525.5000
562.8137
33.7127
6
0.1667
535.5000
579.5093
32.6062
7
0.1944
540.0000
595.0087
31.7696
8
0.2222
565.0000
609.6631
31.1610
9
0.2500
575.7000
623.7125
30.7540
10
0.2778
601.2000
637.3311
30.5311
11
0.3056
609.3000
650.6526
30.4802
12
0.3333
626.3000
663.7847
30.5926
13
0.3611
636.5000
676.8181
30.8619
14
0.3889
647.8000
689.8328
31.2838
15
0.4167
692.2000
702.9019
31.8550
16
0.4444
711.5000
716.0953
32.5738
17
0.4722
737.0000
729.4825
33.4396
18
0.5000
742.4000
743.1343
34.4534
19
0.5278
769.2000
757.1265
35.6180
20
0.5556
805.6000
771.5411
36.9378
21
0.5833
827.9000
786.4708
38.4201
22
0.6111
837.0000
802.0221
40.0749
23
0.6389
854.3000
818.3204
41.9162
24
0.6667
873.0000
835.5172
43.9626
25
0.6944
879.0000
853.7997
46.2395
26
0.7222
879.9000
873.4054
48.7806
27
0.7500
930.8000
894.6432
51.6323
28
0.7778
942.5000
917.9283
54.8586
29
0.8056
983.0000
943.8396
58.5509
30
0.8333
1025.0000
973.2216
62.8447
31
0.8611
1034.0000
1007.3800
67.9519
32
0.8889
1092.0000
1048.5000
74.2295
33
0.9167
1146.0000
1100.6700
82.3500
34
0.9444
1194.0000
1173.0680
93.8279
35
0.9722
1269.0000
1294.9690
113.5132
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
1592.4000
162.5038
0.9900
100.0
1472.5450
142.6547
0.9800
50.0
1352.2500
122.8675
0.9600
25.0
1231.0610
103.1482
0.9000
10.0
1067.7020
77.2007
0.8000
5.0
938.4117
57.7695
0.6670
3.0
835.7297
43.9885
0.5000
2.0
743.1343
34.4534
0.9930
142.9
1534.2550
152.8611
0.9500
20.0
1191.7210
96.8153
0.2000
1.3
597.9982
31.6306
0.0990
1.1
535.5429
35.9257
0.0450
1.0
484.9990
41.0933
0.0250
1.0
455.0950
44.6416
0.0090
1.0
412.9742
50.0804
HAD VENECIA
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 399.217
Second Moment = 6.434e04
Skew = 1.172e+00
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0333
66.5000
36.1281
56.0857
2
0.0667
113.0000
83.1600
50.1292
3
0.1000
127.3000
116.6328
46.4283
4
0.1333
162.5000
144.1754
43.8121
5
0.1667
168.5000
168.3979
41.8940
6
0.2000
168.6000
190.5443
40.4996
7
0.2333
175.0000
211.3222
39.5370
8
0.2667
197.4000
231.1839
38.9534
9
0.3000
269.0000
250.4454
38.7160
10
0.3333
296.1000
269.3447
38.8035
11
0.3667
322.0000
288.0732
39.2011
12
0.4000
326.7000
306.7949
39.8987
13
0.4333
345.5000
325.6590
40.8896
14
0.4667
350.5000
344.8093
42.1702
15
0.5000
368.6000
364.3915
43.7407
16
0.5333
372.4000
384.5609
45.6055
17
0.5667
389.4000
405.4902
47.7747
18
0.6000
394.0000
427.3791
50.2651
19
0.6333
394.0000
450.4666
53.1028
20
0.6667
394.0000
475.0496
56.3264
21
0.7000
434.2000
501.5085
59.9908
22
0.7333
449.1000
530.3496
64.1755
23
0.7667
457.6000
562.2737
68.9966
24
0.8000
475.0000
598.2989
74.6289
25
0.8333
754.0000
639.9949
81.3479
26
0.8667
790.0000
689.9828
89.6211
27
0.9000
790.0000
753.1658
100.3312
28
0.9333
876.4000
840.5406
115.4700
29
0.9667
1150.0000
987.1763
141.4189
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
1381.6600
212.8219
0.9900
100.0
1238.0950
186.6701
0.9800
50.0
1094.0040
160.5905
0.9600
25.0
948.8407
134.5861
0.9000
10.0
753.1658
100.3312
0.8000
5.0
598.2989
74.6289
0.6670
3.0
475.3042
56.3607
0.5000
2.0
364.3915
43.7407
0.9930
0.9500
0.2000
0.0990
0.0490
0.0250
0.0090
142.9
20.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1312.0130
901.7180
190.5443
115.7339
60.9377
19.3717
-31.0816
200.1183
126.2305
40.4996
46.5207
52.8475
58.3769
65.6845
LA MIEL
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 55.4857
Second Moment = 2.154e03
Skew = 6.622e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.1250
13.0000
-17.8407
22.8432
2
0.2500
17.2000
6.7417
16.6989
3
0.3750
17.2000
27.7184
14.4243
4
0.5000
50.5000
48.7657
16.2291
5
0.6250
70.0000
72.3198
21.8030
6
0.7500
79.0000
102.0810
31.1433
7
0.8750
141.5000
148.6140
47.4373
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
347.6184
121.2703
0.9900
100.0
305.4419
105.4591
0.9800
50.0
263.1109
89.6364
0.9600
25.0
220.4650
73.7731
0.9000
10.0
162.9797
52.6361
0.8000
5.0
117.4829
36.4033
0.6670
3.0
81.3496
24.4678
0.5000
2.0
48.7657
16.2291
0.9930
142.9
327.1576
113.5954
0.9500
20.0
206.6213
68.6492
0.2000
1.3
-2.3070
18.6603
0.0990
1.1
-24.2847
24.7803
0.0490
1.1
-40.3828
29.9393
0.0250
1.0
-52.5940
34.0570
0.0090
1.0
-67.4161
39.2044
MAGANGUE
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 8087.66
Second Moment = 2.481e06
Skew = 5.703e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0250
5208.0000
5843.1350
299.1551
2
0.0500
5435.0000
6095.8830
271.4277
3
0.0750
5752.0000
6272.4830
254.0922
4
0.1000
5878.0000
6415.4470
241.5767
5
0.1250
5891.0000
6539.2290
232.0231
6
0.1500
6270.0000
6650.6610
224.5744
7
0.1750
6587.0000
6753.5730
218.7652
8
0.2000
6661.0000
6850.3630
214.3166
9
0.2250
6814.0000
6942.6520
211.0498
10
0.2500
7360.0000
7031.6060
208.8446
11
0.2750
7376.0000
7118.1030
207.6169
12
0.3000
7483.0000
7202.8380
207.3065
13
0.3250
7519.0000
7286.3790
207.8688
14
0.3500
7661.0000
7369.2110
209.2708
15
0.3750
7666.0000
7451.7600
211.4879
16
0.4000
7752.0000
7534.4140
214.5026
17
0.4250
7824.0000
7617.5410
218.3031
18
0.4500
7824.0000
7701.4950
222.8838
19
0.4750
8084.0000
7786.6350
228.2451
20
0.5000
8130.0000
7873.3280
234.3940
21
0.5250
8292.0000
7961.9630
241.3450
22
0.5500
8305.0000
8052.9600
249.1217
23
0.5750
8327.0000
8146.7850
257.7575
24
0.6000
8381.0000
8243.9650
267.2990
25
0.6250
8440.0000
8345.1060
277.8075
26
0.6500
8537.0000
8450.9190
289.3639
27
0.6750
8568.0000
8562.2590
302.0731
28
0.7000
8849.0000
8680.1630
316.0714
29
0.7250
8890.0000
8805.9310
331.5372
30
0.7500
8992.0000
8941.2110
348.7059
31
0.7750
9025.0000
9088.1650
367.8941
32
0.8000
9086.0000
9249.7050
389.5366
33
0.8250
9110.0000
9429.8970
414.2500
34
0.8500
9380.0000
9634.6800
442.9446
35
0.8750
9540.0000
9873.2480
477.0395
36
0.9000
9850.0000 10160.9900
518.9233
37
0.9250 10503.0000 10526.7100
573.0888
38
0.9500 11127.0000 11035.1100
649.6523
39
0.9750 13042.0000 11892.5000
780.9982
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
13859.2200
1087.8450
0.9900
100.0
13014.4400
955.3992
0.9800
50.0
12166.5700
823.3925
0.9600
25.0
11312.3900
691.8772
0.9000
0.8000
0.6670
0.5000
0.9930
0.9500
0.2000
0.0990
0.0490
0.0250
0.0090
10.0
5.0
3.0
2.0
142.9
20.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
10160.9900
9249.7050
8525.9700
7873.3280
13449.4000
11035.1100
6850.3630
6410.1580
6087.7210
5843.1350
5546.2540
518.9233
389.5366
297.8732
234.3940
1023.5000
649.6523
214.3166
242.0127
272.2732
299.1551
335.0539
MONTELIBANO
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 874.318
Second Moment = 4.415e04
Skew = 5.677e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0256
583.0000
574.8524
40.4338
2
0.0513
617.9000
608.9720
36.6435
3
0.0769
632.0000
632.8474
34.2748
4
0.1026
637.2000
652.2003
32.5669
5
0.1282
640.0000
668.9769
31.2666
6
0.1538
642.5000
684.0977
30.2568
7
0.1795
649.0000
698.0790
29.4745
8
0.2051
659.6000
711.2446
28.8815
9
0.2308
675.0000
723.8135
28.4539
10
0.2564
710.0000
735.9437
28.1752
11
0.2821
719.4000
747.7549
28.0342
12
0.3077
735.2000
759.3418
28.0228
13
0.3333
740.8000
770.7825
28.1350
14
0.3590
768.0000
782.1439
28.3665
15
0.3846
796.1000
793.4855
28.7138
16
0.4103
804.3000
804.8622
29.1749
17
0.4359
807.1000
816.3261
29.7483
18
0.4615
817.5000
827.9285
30.4336
19
0.4872
822.5000
839.7217
31.2311
20
0.5128
825.0000
851.7599
32.1423
21
0.5385
842.9000
864.1015
33.1700
22
0.5641
845.0000
876.8105
34.3183
23
0.5897
870.0000
889.9587
35.5931
24
0.6154
906.9000
903.6285
37.0024
25
0.6410
923.7000
917.9163
38.5567
26
0.6667
923.7000
932.9370
40.2700
27
0.6923
948.3000
948.8309
42.1605
28
0.7179
958.0000
965.7721
44.2521
29
0.7436
979.5000
983.9825
46.5765
30
0.7692
1043.0000
1003.7520
49.1765
31
0.7949
1089.0000
1025.4710
52.1110
32
0.8205
1185.0000
1049.6840
55.4634
33
0.8462
1199.0000
1077.1880
59.3570
34
0.8718
1218.0000
1109.2150
63.9845
35
0.8974
1237.0000
1147.8260
69.6698
36
0.9231
1240.0000
1196.8820
77.0226
37
0.9487
1249.0000
1265.0470
87.4158
38
0.9744
1284.0000
1379.9630
105.2443
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
1647.6060
147.5489
0.9900
100.0
1534.4360
129.5710
0.9800
50.0
1420.8510
111.6519
0.9600
25.0
1306.4210
93.7982
0.9000
10.0
1152.1730
70.3160
0.8000
5.0
1030.0930
52.7448
0.6670
3.0
933.1377
40.2934
0.5000
2.0
845.7066
31.6723
0.9930
142.9
1592.7050
138.8149
0.9500
20.0
1269.2740
88.0657
0.2000
1.3
708.6651
28.9863
0.0990
1.1
649.6931
32.7762
0.0490
1.1
606.4979
36.9036
0.0250
1.0
573.7320
40.5651
0.0090
1.0
533.9603
45.4505
NARIO
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 3574.76
Second Moment = 4.76e05
Skew = 6.901e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0286
2124.0000
2590.0710
140.5304
2
0.0571
2772.0000
2708.1780
126.6851
3
0.0857
2909.0000
2791.3720
118.0493
4
0.1143
2927.0000
2859.2000
111.8651
5
0.1429
3008.0000
2918.3250
107.2156
6
0.1714
3049.0000
2971.9040
103.6808
7
0.2000
3092.0000
3021.7180
101.0352
8
0.2286
3107.0000
3068.8880
99.1453
9
0.2571
3108.0000
3114.1830
97.9270
10
0.2857
3130.0000
3158.1630
97.3246
11
0.3143
3165.0000
3201.2580
97.2994
12
0.3429
3184.0000
3243.8200
97.8241
13
0.3714
3232.0000
3286.1470
98.8790
14
0.4000
3272.0000
3328.5040
100.4500
15
0.4286
3277.0000
3371.1380
102.5278
16
0.4571
3309.0000
3414.2860
105.1079
17
0.4857
3354.0000
3458.1900
108.1905
18
0.5143
3391.0000
3503.0990
111.7813
19
0.5429
3432.0000
3549.2840
115.8927
20
0.5714
3434.0000
3597.0460
120.5450
21
0.6000
3496.0000
3646.7270
125.7683
22
0.6286
3687.0000
3698.7300
131.6050
23
0.6571
3715.0000
3753.5390
138.1135
24
0.6857
3856.0000
3811.7480
145.3726
25
0.7143
3892.0000
3874.1120
153.4898
26
0.7429
4013.0000
3941.6100
162.6116
27
0.7714
4126.0000
4015.5580
172.9425
28
0.8000
4141.0000
4097.7870
184.7745
29
0.8286
4370.0000
4190.9680
198.5412
30
0.8571
4392.0000
4299.2320
214.9214
31
0.8857
4423.0000
4429.4840
235.0596
32
0.9143
4830.0000
4594.6540
261.1116
33
0.9429
4890.0000
4823.7530
297.9351
34
0.9714
5435.0000
5209.3230
361.0842
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
6165.0860
520.8144
0.9900
100.0
5786.2150
457.1423
0.9800
50.0
5405.9580
393.6656
0.9600
25.0
5022.8710
330.4013
0.9000
10.0
4506.4820
247.1421
0.8000
5.0
4097.7870
184.7745
0.6670
3.0
3773.2020
140.5283
0.5000
2.0
3480.5020
109.9217
0.9930
142.9
5981.2870
489.8828
0.9500
20.0
4898.5130
310.0824
0.2000
1.3
3021.7180
101.0352
0.0990
1.1
2824.2920
114.9424
0.0490
1.1
2679.6840
129.8714
0.0250
1.0
2569.9910
143.0363
0.0090
1.0
2436.8440
160.5347
PAICOL
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 1064.83
Second Moment = 9.378e04
Skew = 1.26e+00
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
---------------------------------------------------------
1
0.0250
434.7000
628.4963
58.1554
2
0.0500
732.2000
677.6301
52.7653
3
0.0750
734.2000
711.9610
49.3952
4
0.1000
749.0000
739.7529
46.9623
5
0.1250
780.3000
763.8161
45.1050
6
0.1500
785.0000
785.4783
43.6570
7
0.1750
792.0000
805.4844
42.5277
8
0.2000
818.3000
824.3002
41.6629
9
0.2250
818.6000
842.2411
41.0279
10
0.2500
833.9000
859.5336
40.5992
11
0.2750
842.0000
876.3486
40.3605
12
0.3000
846.4000
892.8210
40.3002
13
0.3250
927.8000
909.0613
40.4095
14
0.3500
934.0000
925.1638
40.6820
15
0.3750
962.0000
941.2111
41.1130
16
0.4000
974.0000
957.2790
41.6991
17
0.4250
1025.0000
973.4387
42.4379
18
0.4500
1033.0000
989.7594
43.3284
19
0.4750
1035.0000
1006.3110
44.3706
20
0.5000
1035.0000
1023.1640
45.5659
21
0.5250
1037.0000
1040.3940
46.9172
22
0.5500
1043.0000
1058.0840
48.4290
23
0.5750
1106.0000
1076.3230
50.1078
24
0.6000
1126.0000
1095.2150
51.9626
25
0.6250
1130.0000
1114.8770
54.0055
26
0.6500
1132.0000
1135.4470
56.2520
27
0.6750
1157.0000
1157.0910
58.7227
28
0.7000
1177.0000
1180.0120
61.4440
29
0.7250
1192.0000
1204.4600
64.4505
30
0.7500
1209.0000
1230.7590
67.7881
31
0.7750
1223.0000
1259.3270
71.5182
32
0.8000
1231.0000
1290.7300
75.7255
33
0.8250
1252.0000
1325.7590
80.5298
34
0.8500
1275.0000
1365.5680
86.1080
35
0.8750
1329.0000
1411.9460
92.7360
36
0.9000
1420.0000
1467.8820
100.8781
37
0.9250
1500.0000
1538.9790
111.4079
38
0.9500
1694.0000
1637.8100
126.2917
39
0.9750
2203.0000
1804.4870
151.8252
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
2186.8150
211.4760
0.9900
100.0
2022.5910
185.7286
0.9800
50.0
1857.7660
160.0666
0.9600
25.0
1691.7140
134.5002
0.9000
10.0
1467.8820
100.8781
0.8000
5.0
1290.7300
75.7255
0.6670
3.0
1150.0360
57.9062
0.5000
2.0
1023.1640
45.5659
0.9930
0.9500
0.2000
0.0990
0.0490
0.0250
0.0090
142.9
20.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
2107.1460
1637.8100
824.3002
738.7248
676.0435
628.4963
570.7828
198.9674
126.2917
41.6629
47.0470
52.9296
58.1554
65.1341
PIEDRAS DE COBRE
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 1821.69
Second Moment = 2.836e05
Skew = 2.223e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0233
971.0000
1063.3300
97.4061
2
0.0465
1038.0000
1145.9590
88.6591
3
0.0698
1059.0000
1203.4570
83.1850
4
0.0930
1089.0000
1249.8400
79.2190
5
0.1163
1130.0000
1289.8660
76.1720
6
0.1395
1154.0000
1325.7810
73.7716
7
0.1628
1171.0000
1358.8430
71.8695
8
0.1860
1253.0000
1389.8370
70.3761
9
0.2093
1284.0000
1419.2910
69.2338
10
0.2326
1350.0000
1447.5830
68.4034
11
0.2558
1350.0000
1474.9950
67.8576
12
0.2791
1445.0000
1501.7480
67.5763
13
0.3023
1475.0000
1528.0210
67.5450
14
0.3256
1588.0000
1553.9630
67.7524
15
0.3488
1594.0000
1579.7040
68.1903
16
0.3721
1602.0000
1605.3570
68.8523
17
0.3953
1628.0000
1631.0280
69.7337
18
0.4186
1715.0000
1656.8160
70.8314
19
0.4419
1730.0000
1682.8180
72.1438
20
0.4651
1750.0000
1709.1280
73.6707
21
0.4884
1767.0000
1735.8450
75.4134
22
0.5116
1770.0000
1763.0690
77.3750
23
0.5349
1808.0000
1790.9100
79.5606
24
0.5581
1870.0000
1819.4850
81.9775
25
0.5814
1879.0000
1848.9250
84.6358
26
0.6047
1977.0000
1879.3760
87.5487
27
0.6279
1997.0000
1911.0080
90.7332
28
0.6512
2001.0000
1944.0160
94.2113
29
0.6744
2008.0000
1978.6340
98.0109
30
0.6977
2028.0000
2015.1410
102.1674
31
0.7209
2127.0000
2053.8810
106.7264
32
0.7442
2260.0000
2095.2830
111.7466
33
0.7674
2274.0000
2139.8960
117.3052
34
0.7907
2347.0000
2188.4390
123.5053
35
0.8140
2500.0000
2241.8810
130.4877
36
0.8372
2505.0000
2301.5800
138.4521
37
0.8605
2521.0000
2369.5160
147.6920
38
0.8837
2536.0000
2448.7610
158.6653
39
0.9070
2574.0000
2544.4510
172.1413
40
0.9302
2729.0000
2666.2120
189.5667
41
0.9535
2798.0000
2835.6470
214.1987
42
0.9767
2859.0000
3121.6810
256.4618
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
3748.9620
350.7648
0.9900
100.0
3466.7650
308.1496
0.9800
50.0
3183.5360
265.6812
0.9600
25.0
2898.1990
223.3791
0.9000
10.0
2513.5740
167.7692
0.8000
5.0
2209.1630
126.1948
0.6670
3.0
1967.4000
96.7619
0.5000
2.0
1749.3870
76.3665
0.9930
142.9
3612.0620
330.0609
0.9500
20.0
2805.5730
209.7999
0.2000
1.3
1407.6680
69.6514
0.0990
1.1
1260.6180
78.3623
0.0490
1.1
1152.9090
87.9680
0.0250
1.0
1071.2050
96.5339
0.0090
1.0
972.0327
108.0011
PTE SANTANDER
Distribution Analysis: Normal Distribution
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 2029.90
Second Moment = 3.22e05
Skew = 3.64e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0179
938.0000
837.9794
178.0021
2
0.0357
1137.0000
1006.7650
157.7564
3
0.0536
1144.0000
1115.5000
145.1087
4
0.0714
1282.0000
1198.3430
135.7449
5
0.0893
1289.0000
1266.5080
128.2572
6
0.1071
1345.0000
1325.1600
122.0012
7
0.1250
1422.0000
1377.1250
116.6262
8
0.1429
1422.0000
1424.1320
111.9197
9
0.1607
1464.0000
1467.3150
107.7435
10
0.1786
1471.0000
1507.4670
104.0026
11
0.1964
1513.0000
1545.1620
100.6293
12
0.2143
1558.0000
1580.8310
97.5738
13
0.2321
1559.0000
1614.8080
94.7987
14
0.2500
1597.0000
1647.3570
92.2754
15
0.2679
1627.0000
1678.6910
89.9817
16
0.2857
1658.0000
1708.9870
87.9003
17
0.3036
1658.0000
1738.3920
86.0177
18
0.3214
1706.0000
1767.0290
84.3230
19
0.3393
1730.0000
1795.0080
82.8079
20
0.3571
1730.0000
1822.4210
81.4657
21
0.3750
1730.0000
1849.3520
80.2910
22
0.3929
1800.0000
1875.8750
79.2798
23
0.4107
1835.0000
1902.0580
78.4290
24
0.4286
1905.0000
1927.9630
77.7359
25
0.4464
1926.0000
1953.6460
77.1988
26
0.4643
1954.0000
1979.1640
76.8162
27
0.4821
1963.0000
2004.5670
76.5871
28
0.5000
1967.0000
2029.9130
76.5108
29
0.5179
1968.0000
2055.2520
76.5871
30
0.5357
1989.0000
2080.6550
76.8162
31
0.5536
1990.0000
2106.1720
77.1988
32
0.5714
2037.0000
2131.8560
77.7359
33
0.5893
2078.0000
2157.7600
78.4290
34
0.6071
2094.0000
2183.9430
79.2798
35
0.6250
2136.0000
2210.4660
80.2910
36
0.6429
2165.0000
2237.3970
81.4657
37
0.6607
2208.0000
2264.8100
82.8079
38
0.6786
2228.0000
2292.7890
84.3230
39
0.6964
2392.0000
2321.4270
86.0177
40
0.7143
2400.0000
2350.8310
87.9003
41
0.7321
2450.0000
2381.1270
89.9817
42
0.7500
2486.0000
2412.4610
92.2754
43
0.7679
2514.0000
2445.0110
94.7987
44
0.7857
2534.0000
2478.9870
97.5738
45
0.8036
2582.0000
2514.6560
100.6293
46
0.8214
2640.0000
2552.3510
104.0026
47
0.8393
2722.0000
2592.5030
107.7435
48
0.8571
2743.0000
2635.6870
111.9197
49
0.8750
2750.0000
2682.6930
116.6262
50
0.8929
2752.0000
2734.6580
122.0012
51
0.9107
2761.0000
2793.3100
128.2572
52
0.9286
3018.0000
2861.4750
135.7449
53
0.9464
3049.0000
2944.3180
145.1087
54
0.9643
3247.0000
3053.0540
157.7564
55
0.9821
3382.0000
3221.8390
178.0021
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
3491.7200
211.4390
0.9900
100.0
3350.1770
193.7698
0.9800
50.0
3195.5000
174.8021
0.9600
25.0
3023.5080
154.2845
0.9000
10.0
2757.1910
124.3824
0.8000
0.6670
0.5000
0.9930
0.9500
0.2000
0.0990
0.0490
0.0250
0.0090
5.0
3.0
2.0
142.9
20.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
2507.3720
2274.5900
2029.9130
3424.4520
2963.4380
1552.4460
1299.3800
1090.8320
917.5387
687.3608
99.9942
83.3212
76.5108
203.0098
147.3056
99.9942
124.7279
147.9454
168.3790
196.5336
PTO ARAUJO
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 1437.04
Second Moment = 1.38e05
Skew = 8.116e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0208
785.6000
908.2946
64.2041
2
0.0417
906.5000
963.1771
58.6997
3
0.0625
975.2000
1001.1440
55.2508
4
0.0833
1004.0000
1031.6170
52.7409
5
0.1042
1026.0000
1057.7910
50.7970
6
0.1250
1027.0000
1081.1700
49.2464
7
0.1458
1063.0000
1102.5950
47.9944
8
0.1667
1108.0000
1122.5900
46.9838
9
0.1875
1121.0000
1141.5050
46.1771
10
0.2083
1123.0000
1159.5880
45.5491
11
0.2292
1148.0000
1177.0260
45.0816
12
0.2500
1210.0000
1193.9590
44.7614
13
0.2708
1218.0000
1210.5030
44.5787
14
0.2917
1247.0000
1226.7500
44.5261
15
0.3125
1280.0000
1242.7790
44.5977
16
0.3333
1280.0000
1258.6590
44.7890
17
0.3542
1297.0000
1274.4490
45.0966
18
0.3750
1297.0000
1290.2050
45.5177
19
0.3958
1297.0000
1305.9780
46.0504
20
0.4167
1297.0000
1321.8160
46.6935
21
0.4375
1310.0000
1337.7680
47.4461
22
0.4583
1320.0000
1353.8790
48.3083
23
0.4792
1330.0000
1370.1980
49.2805
24
0.5000
1348.0000
1386.7740
50.3641
25
0.5208
1370.0000
1403.6590
51.5611
26
0.5417
1375.0000
1420.9080
52.8745
27
0.5625
1399.0000
1438.5810
54.3082
28
0.5833
1420.0000
1456.7440
55.8673
29
0.6042
1420.0000
1475.4710
57.5584
30
0.6250
1445.0000
1494.8450
59.3895
31
0.6458
1488.0000
1514.9620
61.3708
32
0.6667
1499.0000
1535.9330
63.5147
33
0.6875
1511.0000
1557.8880
65.8368
34
0.7083
1549.0000
1580.9840
68.3563
35
0.7292
1557.0000
1605.4090
71.0975
36
0.7500
1585.0000
1631.3960
74.0907
37
0.7708
1637.0000
1659.2370
77.3752
38
0.7917
1692.0000
1689.3070
81.0016
39
0.8125
1795.0000
1722.0960
85.0376
40
0.8333
1852.0000
1758.2670
89.5752
41
0.8542
1905.0000
1798.7490
94.7444
42
0.8750
1995.0000
1844.9000
100.7362
43
0.8958
2030.0000
1898.8230
107.8478
44
0.9167
2110.0000
1964.0410
116.5783
45
0.9375
2158.0000
2047.1520
127.8662
46
0.9583
2316.0000
2162.9710
143.8232
47
0.9792
2415.0000
2358.7620
171.2076
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
2757.9740
227.9386
0.9900
100.0
2564.4590
200.3312
0.9800
50.0
2370.2360
172.8241
0.9600
25.0
2174.5670
145.4324
0.9000
10.0
1910.8120
109.4430
0.8000
5.0
1702.0640
82.5623
0.6670
3.0
1536.2760
63.5504
0.5000
2.0
1386.7740
50.3641
0.9930
142.9
2664.0960
214.5254
0.9500
20.0
2111.0490
136.6417
0.2000
1.3
1152.4420
45.7801
0.0990
1.1
1051.6030
51.2375
0.0490
1.1
977.7419
57.3379
0.0250
1.0
921.7142
62.8085
0.0090
1.0
853.7070
70.1583
PTO. BERRIO
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 5573.90
Second Moment = 1.231e06
Skew = 4.075e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0130
3264.0000
3989.0310
151.2697
2
0.0260
3502.0000
4125.1010
140.4098
3
0.0390
3676.0000
4217.2520
133.5905
4
0.0519
3709.0000
4289.9090
128.5721
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
0.0649
0.0779
0.0909
0.1039
0.1169
0.1299
0.1429
0.1558
0.1688
0.1818
0.1948
0.2078
0.2208
0.2338
0.2468
0.2597
0.2727
0.2857
0.2987
0.3117
0.3247
0.3377
0.3506
0.3636
0.3766
0.3896
0.4026
0.4156
0.4286
0.4416
0.4545
0.4675
0.4805
0.4935
0.5065
0.5195
0.5325
0.5455
0.5584
0.5714
0.5844
0.5974
0.6104
0.6234
0.6364
0.6494
0.6623
0.6753
0.6883
0.7013
0.7143
0.7273
3903.0000
4143.0000
4194.0000
4288.0000
4365.0000
4391.0000
4450.0000
4467.0000
4600.0000
4616.0000
4640.0000
4660.0000
4660.0000
4660.0000
4735.0000
4764.0000
4816.0000
4830.0000
4925.0000
4925.0000
4940.0000
5020.0000
5020.0000
5050.0000
5130.0000
5130.0000
5193.0000
5247.0000
5350.0000
5358.0000
5390.0000
5446.0000
5450.0000
5484.0000
5570.0000
5619.0000
5620.0000
5660.0000
5666.0000
5680.0000
5870.0000
5870.0000
5870.0000
5910.0000
5997.0000
6030.0000
6061.0000
6061.0000
6061.0000
6100.0000
6161.0000
6170.0000
4351.3110
4405.3220
4454.0880
4498.9360
4540.7470
4580.1400
4617.5670
4653.3730
4687.8230
4721.1300
4753.4660
4784.9740
4815.7730
4845.9640
4875.6370
4904.8660
4933.7190
4962.2580
4990.5360
5018.6020
5046.5020
5074.2790
5101.9710
5129.6160
5157.2500
5184.9060
5212.6190
5240.4200
5268.3420
5296.4170
5324.6770
5353.1550
5381.8830
5410.8950
5440.2270
5469.9150
5499.9960
5530.5110
5561.5020
5593.0140
5625.0940
5657.7950
5691.1720
5725.2860
5760.2020
5795.9940
5832.7400
5870.5300
5909.4620
5949.6470
5991.2080
6034.2870
124.6083
121.3528
118.6148
116.2776
114.2644
112.5218
111.0112
109.7040
108.5781
107.6164
106.8054
106.1338
105.5929
105.1752
104.8746
104.6858
104.6046
104.6273
104.7507
104.9722
105.2895
105.7008
106.2044
106.7991
107.4838
108.2577
109.1202
110.0709
111.1098
112.2368
113.4523
114.7568
116.1510
117.6360
119.2129
120.8835
122.6494
124.5130
126.4767
128.5434
130.7166
133.0000
135.3982
137.9160
140.5592
143.3342
146.2484
149.3102
152.5290
155.9159
159.4833
163.2457
57
0.7403
6207.0000
6079.0460
167.2198
58
0.7532
6298.0000
6125.6690
171.4251
59
0.7662
6300.0000
6174.3730
175.8842
60
0.7792
6361.0000
6225.4070
180.6240
61
0.7922
6361.0000
6279.0670
185.6763
62
0.8052
6363.0000
6335.7080
191.0795
63
0.8182
6372.0000
6395.7540
196.8796
64
0.8312
6421.0000
6459.7250
203.1337
65
0.8442
6561.0000
6528.2640
209.9122
66
0.8571
6572.0000
6602.1830
217.3047
67
0.8701
6850.0000
6682.5250
225.4263
68
0.8831
6937.0000
6770.6630
234.4291
69
0.8961
7001.0000
6868.4560
244.5194
70
0.9091
7301.0000
6978.5080
255.9868
71
0.9221
7339.0000
7104.6330
269.2563
72
0.9351
7468.0000
7252.7450
284.9879
73
0.9481
7600.0000
7432.7460
304.2888
74
0.9610
7917.0000
7663.2030
329.2385
75
0.9740
8376.0000
7985.7910
364.5143
76
0.9870
8645.0000
8533.4930
425.0804
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
9283.7540
508.9358
0.9900
100.0
8739.2490
447.9940
0.9800
50.0
8192.7490
387.3156
0.9600
25.0
7642.1830
326.9532
0.9000
10.0
6900.0390
247.7988
0.8000
5.0
6312.6690
188.8734
0.6670
3.0
5846.1820
147.3301
0.5000
2.0
5425.5190
118.4129
0.9930
142.9
9019.6020
479.3227
0.9500
20.0
7463.4590
307.5995
0.2000
1.3
4766.1620
106.5205
0.0990
1.1
4482.4260
117.1172
0.0490
1.1
4274.5980
129.6012
0.0250
1.0
4116.9490
141.0354
0.0090
1.0
3925.5920
156.6073
PTO SALGAR
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 4271.14
Second Moment = 4.485e05
Skew = 8.87e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0154
2891.0000
3316.5870
99.3098
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
0.0308
0.0462
0.0615
0.0769
0.0923
0.1077
0.1231
0.1385
0.1538
0.1692
0.1846
0.2000
0.2154
0.2308
0.2462
0.2615
0.2769
0.2923
0.3077
0.3231
0.3385
0.3538
0.3692
0.3846
0.4000
0.4154
0.4308
0.4462
0.4615
0.4769
0.4923
0.5077
0.5231
0.5385
0.5538
0.5692
0.5846
0.6000
0.6154
0.6308
0.6462
0.6615
0.6769
0.6923
0.7077
0.7231
0.7385
0.7538
0.7692
0.7846
0.8000
0.8154
3387.0000
3399.0000
3444.0000
3455.0000
3487.0000
3500.0000
3520.0000
3558.0000
3563.0000
3648.0000
3654.0000
3671.0000
3715.0000
3730.0000
3760.0000
3820.0000
3846.0000
3859.0000
3880.0000
3884.0000
3893.0000
3950.0000
3950.0000
3951.0000
4010.0000
4015.0000
4020.0000
4181.0000
4210.0000
4210.0000
4210.0000
4275.0000
4340.0000
4340.0000
4394.0000
4400.0000
4400.0000
4425.0000
4435.0000
4460.0000
4460.0000
4460.0000
4503.0000
4520.0000
4525.0000
4540.0000
4559.0000
4580.0000
4588.0000
4710.0000
4750.0000
4750.0000
3404.0280
3463.6610
3510.9500
3551.1210
3586.6290
3618.8380
3648.5940
3676.4600
3702.8300
3727.9970
3752.1810
3775.5540
3798.2550
3820.3960
3842.0720
3863.3620
3884.3350
3905.0520
3925.5650
3945.9240
3966.1710
3986.3470
4006.4910
4026.6370
4046.8200
4067.0750
4087.4330
4107.9290
4128.5940
4149.4610
4170.5670
4191.9450
4213.6340
4235.6710
4258.1010
4280.9650
4304.3140
4328.1990
4352.6780
4377.8150
4403.6790
4430.3510
4457.9190
4486.4840
4516.1640
4547.0900
4579.4190
4613.3370
4649.0600
4686.8520
4727.0330
4770.0020
91.7399
86.9882
83.5014
80.7614
78.5274
76.6671
75.0994
73.7714
72.6461
71.6972
70.9050
70.2546
69.7344
69.3351
69.0496
68.8718
68.7969
68.8210
68.9408
69.1535
69.4570
69.8493
70.3291
70.8953
71.5469
72.2835
73.1048
74.0108
75.0019
76.0786
77.2420
78.4933
79.8341
81.2665
82.7931
84.4167
86.1410
87.9702
89.9092
91.9637
94.1403
96.4470
98.8928
101.4883
104.2462
107.1810
110.3105
113.6554
117.2411
121.0981
125.2641
129.7862
54
0.8308
4750.0000
4816.2580
134.7240
55
0.8462
4764.0000
4866.4440
140.1544
56
0.8615
4970.0000
4921.4060
146.1790
57
0.8769
5003.0000
4982.2880
152.9357
58
0.8923
5035.0000
5050.6930
160.6185
59
0.9077
5058.0000
5128.9700
169.5120
60
0.9231
5100.0000
5220.7560
180.0582
61
0.9385
5580.0000
5332.1450
192.9989
62
0.9538
5857.0000
5474.5610
209.7275
63
0.9692
6042.0000
5673.6440
233.3789
64
0.9846
6509.0000
6011.2130
273.9827
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
6554.9760
340.2039
0.9900
100.0
6219.9720
299.3133
0.9800
50.0
5883.7420
258.5901
0.9600
25.0
5545.0090
218.0655
0.9000
10.0
5088.4090
164.8911
0.8000
5.0
4727.0330
125.2641
0.6670
3.0
4440.0300
97.2988
0.5000
2.0
4181.2200
77.8565
0.9930
142.9
6392.4580
320.3351
0.9500
20.0
5435.0500
205.0684
0.2000
1.3
3775.5540
70.2546
0.0990
1.1
3600.9870
77.6778
0.0490
1.1
3473.1220
86.2695
0.0250
1.0
3376.1300
94.0834
0.0090
1.0
3258.3990
104.6769
PURIFICACION
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 2962.28
Second Moment = 5.695e05
Skew = 5.301e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0189
1849.0000
1887.9610
124.0193
2
0.0377
1950.0000
1994.8640
113.8035
3
0.0566
2020.0000
2068.4530
107.3975
4
0.0755
2033.0000
2127.2680
102.7203
5
0.0943
2037.0000
2177.5880
99.0770
6
0.1132
2050.0000
2222.3690
96.1451
7
0.1321
2102.0000
2263.2590
93.7475
8
0.1509
2140.0000
2301.2790
91.7767
9
0.1698
2167.0000
2337.1140
90.1623
10
0.1887
2226.0000
2371.2470
88.8561
11
0.2075
2238.0000
2404.0360
87.8235
12
0.2264
2287.0000
2435.7540
87.0392
13
0.2453
2305.0000
2466.6170
86.4843
14
0.2642
2310.0000
2496.8020
86.1441
15
0.2830
2402.0000
2526.4530
86.0071
16
0.3019
2408.0000
2555.6950
86.0644
17
0.3208
2433.0000
2584.6370
86.3089
18
0.3396
2465.0000
2613.3730
86.7349
19
0.3585
2517.0000
2641.9910
87.3380
20
0.3774
2552.0000
2670.5700
88.1147
21
0.3962
2595.0000
2699.1870
89.0625
22
0.4151
2661.0000
2727.9130
90.1797
23
0.4340
2688.0000
2756.8190
91.4653
24
0.4528
2755.0000
2785.9740
92.9194
25
0.4717
2758.0000
2815.4500
94.5426
26
0.4906
2781.0000
2845.3180
96.3366
27
0.5094
2843.0000
2875.6550
98.3039
28
0.5283
3000.0000
2906.5390
100.4482
29
0.5472
3020.0000
2938.0550
102.7744
30
0.5660
3102.0000
2970.2950
105.2886
31
0.5849
3160.0000
3003.3600
107.9987
32
0.6038
3163.0000
3037.3610
110.9142
33
0.6226
3234.0000
3072.4220
114.0468
34
0.6415
3240.0000
3108.6840
117.4106
35
0.6604
3268.0000
3146.3080
121.0229
36
0.6792
3280.0000
3185.4800
124.9044
37
0.6981
3319.0000
3226.4180
129.0806
38
0.7170
3350.0000
3269.3780
133.5822
39
0.7358
3374.0000
3314.6710
138.4472
40
0.7547
3380.0000
3362.6700
143.7229
41
0.7736
3420.0000
3413.8380
149.4684
42
0.7925
3634.0000
3468.7580
155.7590
43
0.8113
3745.0000
3528.1770
162.6926
44
0.8302
3750.0000
3593.0750
170.3984
45
0.8491
3978.0000
3664.7780
179.0528
46
0.8679
4006.0000
3745.1450
188.9038
47
0.8868
4010.0000
3836.8950
200.3159
48
0.9057
4099.0000
3944.2370
213.8553
49
0.9245
4186.0000
4074.2260
230.4736
50
0.9434
4439.0000
4240.0780
251.9581
51
0.9623
4455.0000
4471.4650
282.3310
52
0.9811
4855.0000
4863.0510
334.4627
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
5606.8920
434.9560
0.9900
100.0
5219.2880
382.4139
0.9800
50.0
4830.2650
330.0710
0.9600
25.0
4438.3460
277.9601
0.9000
10.0
3910.0540
209.5239
0.8000
0.6670
0.5000
0.9930
0.9500
0.2000
0.0990
0.0490
0.0250
0.0090
5.0
3.0
2.0
142.9
20.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
3491.9370
3159.8700
2860.4230
5418.8560
4311.1220
2391.0620
2189.0860
2041.1440
1928.9230
1792.7060
158.4489
122.3534
97.2983
409.4274
261.2401
88.2055
98.2951
109.7077
119.9913
133.8503
SAN PABLO
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 6873.89
Second Moment = 1.705e06
Skew = 7.801e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull
Actual Predicted
Standard
Number Probability
Value
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0500
5039.0000
4977.3150
361.2810
2
0.1000
5340.0000
5285.6020
313.2457
3
0.1500
5720.0000
5512.5160
284.0175
4
0.2000
5844.0000
5705.1700
264.7619
5
0.2500
5870.0000
5880.0170
252.7657
6
0.3000
6000.0000
6045.2070
246.9441
7
0.3500
6133.0000
6205.7090
246.7916
8
0.4000
6319.0000
6365.0820
252.0208
9
0.4500
6336.0000
6526.2670
262.4346
10
0.5000
6520.0000
6692.0370
277.9107
11
0.5500
6926.0000
6865.3290
298.4439
12
0.6000
7021.0000
7049.5940
324.2223
13
0.6500
7195.0000
7249.2450
355.7329
14
0.7000
7244.0000
7470.3990
393.9257
15
0.7500
7303.0000
7722.2340
440.5114
16
0.8000
8048.0000
8019.8420
498.5928
17
0.8500
8886.0000
8391.2310
574.2284
18
0.9000
8886.0000
8898.9650
681.2958
19
0.9500
9974.0000
9742.2400
864.5162
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence
Return
Calculated
Standard
Probability
Period
Value
Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9950
200.0
12466.6900
1474.4540
0.9900
100.0
11651.7300
1290.4900
0.9800
50.0
10833.7800
1106.8640
0.9600
25.0
10009.7400
923.5092
0.9000
10.0
8898.9650
681.2958
0.8000
5.0
8019.8420
498.5928
0.6670
3.0
7321.6470
367.9029
0.5000
0.9930
0.9500
0.2000
0.0990
0.0490
0.0250
0.0090
2.0
142.9
20.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
6692.0370
12071.3300
9742.2400
5705.1700
5280.5000
4969.4410
4733.4870
4447.0820
277.9107
1385.1080
864.5162
264.7619
313.9709
362.6053
404.0245
457.8782
0.0250
0.0090
1.0
1.0
171.5418
137.4930
53.7303
61.1439