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Douglas Grandt answerthecall@mac.com

It is complicated, but you cannot deny these facts
June 25, 2015 at 3:33 PM
Rex Tillerson Rex.W.Tillerson@ExxonMobil.com
David Rosenthal David.S.Rosenthal@exxonmobil.com, Kenneth P Cohen kenneth.p.cohen@exxonmobil.com

Dear Rex,
You have indicated that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere is a concern and could present challenges.
Your comments in that regard initially gave me confidence that you understood the impact of human combustion of carbon-based
fuels. But recently, you have clarified that you and ExxonMobil do not believe that humans need to respond with measures that
reduce human combustion, as you believe it is undecided whether humans are the cause.
You have put yourself squarely in the camp of skeptics, and deniers of scientific observation. Lets meet for coffee and chat.

Whats Really Warming the World?

Bloomberg Business - By Eric Roston and Blacki Migliozzi - June 24, 2015 - http://bit.ly/Bloom24Jun2015
Skeptics of manmade climate change offer various natural causes to explain why the Earth has warmed 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit
since 1880. But can these account for the planets rising temperature? Scroll down to see how much different factor, both natural
and industrial, contribute to global warming, based on findings from NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Is It the Earths Orbit?

The Earth wobbles on its axis, and its tilt and orbit change over many thousands of years, pushing the climate into and out of ice
ages. Yet the influence of orbital changes on the planets temperature over 125 years has been negligible.

Is It the Sun?

Is It the Sun?

The suns temperature varies over decades ad centuries. These changes have had little effect on the Earths overall climate.

Is It Volcanoes ?

The data suggest no. Human industry emits about 100 times more CO2 than volcanic activity, and eruptions release sulfate
chemicals that can actually cool the atmosphere for a year or two.

Is it All Three of These Things Combined?

If it were, then the response to natural factors should match the observed temperature. Adding the natural factors together just
doesnt add up.

So If Its Not Nature, Is It Deforestation?

So If Its Not Nature, Is It Deforestation?

Humans have cut, plowed, and paved more than half the Earths land surface. Dark forests are yielding to lighter patches, which
reflect more sunlightand have a slight cooling effect.

Or Ozone Pollution?

Natural ozone high in the atmosphere blocks harmful sunlight and cools things slightly. Closer to Earth, ozone is created by
pollution and traps heat, making the climate a little bit hotter. Whats the overall effect? Not much.

Or Aerosol Pollution?

Some pollutants cool the atmosphere, like sulfate aerosols from coal-burning. These aerosols offset some of the warming.
(Unfortunately, they also cause acid rains.)

No, It Really Is Greenhouse Gases.

Atmospheric CO2 levels are 40 percent higher than they were in 1750. The green line shows the influence of greenhouse gas
emissions. Its no contest.

See for Yourself

Greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere. Aerosols cool it a little bit. Ozone and land-use changes add and subtract a little.
Together they match the observed temperature, particularly since 1950.

Compare and Contrast

Putting the possible natural and human causes of climate change alongside one another makes the dominant role of greenhouse
gases even more plainly visible. The only real question is: What are we going to do about it?

Methodology
NASA's Model
Researchers who study the Earth's climate create models to test their assumptions about the causes and trajectory of global
warming. Around the world there are 28 or so research groups in more than a dozen countries who have written 61 climate
models. Each takes a slightly different approach to the elements of the climate system, such as ice, oceans, or atmospheric
chemistry.
The computer model that generated the results for this graphic is called "ModelE2," and was created by NASA's Goddard Institute
for Space Studies (GISS), which has been a leader in climate projections for a generation. ModelE2 contains something on the
order of 500,000 lines of code, and is run on a supercomputer at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation in Greenbelt,
Maryland.

A Global Research Project

GISS produced the results shown here in 2012, as part of its contribution to an international climate-science research initiative
called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five. Let's just call it "Phase-5."
Phase-5 is designed both to see how well models replicate known climate history and to make projections about where the worlds
temperature is headed. Initial results from Phase-5 were used in the 2013 scientific tome published by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
There are more than 30 different kinds of experiments included in Phase-5 research. These tests address questions like, what
would happen to the Earths temperature if atmospheric carbon dioxide suddenly quadrupled? Or, what would the worlds climate
be like through 2300 if we keep burning fossil fuels at the current rate?
Phase-5 calls for a suite of "historical" experiments. Research groups were asked to see how well they could reproduce what's
known about the climate from 1850-2005. They were also asked to estimate how the various climate factorsor "forcings"
contribute to those temperatures. That's why this graphic stops in 2005, even though the GISS observed temperature data is upto-date. The years 2005-2012 were not a part of the Phase-5 "historical" experiment.

A Word About Temperatures

Climate scientists tend not to report climate results in whole temperatures. Instead, they talk about how the annual temperature
departs from an average, or baseline. They call these departures "anomalies." They do this because temperature anomalies are
more consistent in an area than absolute temperatures are. For example, the absolute temperature atop the Empire State Building
may be different by several degrees than the absolute temperature at New Yorks LaGuardia Airport. But the differences from
their own averages are likely to be about the same. It means that scientists can get a better idea about temperature with fewer
monitoring stations. Thats particularly useful in places where measurement is very difficult (ie, deserts).
The simulation results are aligned to the observations using the 1880-1910 average. What's most important about these
temperatures are the trendsthe shape and trajectory of the line, and not any single years temperature.

What the Lines Show

The black "observed" line is the GISS global land and ocean temperature record, which can be found here. It starts in 1880.
The colored temperature lines are the modeled estimates that each climate factor contributes to the overall temperature. Each
factor was simulated five times, with different initial conditions; each slide here shows the average of five runs. GISS researchers
laid out their historical simulations in detail last year in this article. The modeled years 1850-1879 from the Phase-5 "historical"
experiment are not shown because the observed data begins in 1880.

Confidence Ranges
Researchers do not expect their models to reproduce weather events or El Nio phases exactly when they happened in real life.
They do expect the models to capture how the whole system behaves over long periods of time. For example, in 1998 there was a
powerful El Nio, when the equatorial Pacific Ocean warms ( we're in another one of that scale now). A simulation wouldn't
necessarily reproduce an El Nio in 1998, but it should produce a realistic number of them over the course of many years.
The temperature lines represent the average of the models estimates. The uncertainty bands illustrate the outer range of
reasonable estimates.

In short, the temperature lines in the modeled results might not line up exactly with observations. For any year, 95% of the
simulations with that forcing will lie inside the band.

Data
The raw observational and model data can be downloaded here:
Observed land-ocean temperature
Responses to climate forcings
850 year Preindustrial control experiment

Acknowledgments
Many thanks to Kate Marvel and Gavin Schmidt of NASA-GISS.