RESERVOIR YIELD VULNERABILITY UNDER GLOBAL CHANGE

Jos Nilson Beserra Campos, PhD

Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart, Dr
Patrcia Freire Chagas, MSc
Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Universidade Federal do Cear, P.O. Box 6018, Fortaleza, Cear, Brazil, 60451-970
Fax: (+55) 85 288-9627 e-mail: nilson@ufc.br, ticiana@ufc.br, pfchagas@yahoo.com

INTRODUCTION
There is not a scientific consensus on how the climate changes will modify the
hydrological cycle. Climate models still need to be improved in order to better evaluating
accurately this changes. Predictions of regional effects in the hydrological cycle vary
significantly among different models. Besides that, there is a consensus on global
precipitation and evaporation increase. Despite of all these uncertainties, some likely trends in
hydrological cycle can be named:

An increase on air temperature leads to an increase in evapotranspiration and, as a result,

an intensification of the hydrological cycle. For a mean global temperature increase of
20 C, potential evapotranspiration increases by up 40% (Hoff, 2001).

There are a tendency on increasing the total precipitation over the world. Besides of that,
for some regions, a decrease in precipitation is expected, despite of the global trend to a
higher precipitation, due to changes in global circulation and atmospheric conditions
(Hoff op. cit.).
The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) has a semi-arid climate subject to recurrent droughts and

one the main concerns of researchers is evaluating the impact of global changes in water
availability in the region. In NEB it was created a culture of storing water in surface
reservoirs, as much as possible. It is common one reads in droughts historiography that, for
solving the drought problem, it would be necessary keeping in reservoirs up to the last drop of
water from the intermittent rivers of the Region. Than, the estimation of the impacts of
climate in water availability in NEB is strongly related to evaluation of the impacts in
reservoirs yield.
The present study intends to evaluate the impacts of climate change in the availability of
water in Northeast of Brazil, taking as case study the Vrzea do Boi river basin. The main
focus is on the water yielded by surface reservoirs, which represents the main source for most
portion of Cear State.

THE STUDY AREA

The study area comprises Vrzea do Boi Reservoirs drainage basin, in Tau
municipality, situated in the microregion of Sertes dos Inhamuns (Figure 1). Vrzea do
Boi reservoir is in upper part of Jaguaribe River Basin, which is the largest intermittent river
of the world.
The climatic and hydrological conditions in Vrzea do Boi reservoir correspond to
typical Cear States semi-arid condition: highly variable precipitation and run-off patterns,
both within-the-year as well as overyear scales, associated to high negative water balance.
The mean annual precipitation is around 520mm, mean annual inflow () approximately
equal to 42,6 hm, standard deviation of annual inflows () equal to 66.8 hm, coefficient of
variation of annual inflows (CV) equal to 1.57 and mean annual evaporation during dry
season (Ev ) equal to 1,438mm. The drainage area (A) is 1,256 km and the reservoirs
capacity (K) is 51.8 hm (Campos, Vieira and Queirz, 2000).

Figure 1. Vrzea do Boi Reservoirs location in Jaguaribe Basin (Cear State)

METHODOLOGY
A reservoir works as a hydrologic transformation system. The water provided in a very
irregular manner by Nature is stored and released according to the demand. In that process,

the inflows are partitioned in three portions: (1) the evaporation from the lake; (2) the
reservoirs spills to downstream and (3) controlled volume, which is named reservoir yield,
and represents the systems availability. This third part represents the reservoir yield, or water
availability, which is the focus of the present study.
The reservoir yield was estimated under two approaches. In the first approach, the
yield was estimated solving the reservoir budget equation, in parametric formulation of
Campos (1987, 1996), using Monte Carlo simulation. In the second, the yield was computed
for an infinite reservoir according to an equation, obtained using also Monte Carlo simulation
and the parametric formulation referred (Campos and Ibiapina, 1997; Campos, Ibiapina and
Studart, 2001).
To introduce the climate change in the study, we analyzed two standards for
hydrological modifications in Vrzea do Boi river basin. For each standard, it was built
scenarios for different values of precipitation, lake evaporation and reservoir inflows. The
yield estimations were performed using both procedures: Monte Carlo Simulation and infinite
reservoir yield equation. In addition, it was also estimated the global change impact on
reservoir yield, for the climate scenario estimated in the Waves Project.
Standards assumed for hydrological changes
Due the uncertainties in the expected hydrological modifications in Vrzea do Boi
river basin,

we studied the impacts of climate change on water availability under two

different standards of hydrological modifications in the basin. In each standard, it was built 10
scenarios grouped in an ensemble, named ensemble 1 and ensemble 2 respectively. In
ensemble 1, precipitation, evaporation and inflows increases at the same ratio (K X). In
ensemble 2, precipitation and evaporation increases at the same ratio (K X) and the coefficient
of surface run-off increases according to Aguiar (1937) polynomial rule (K R).
The ensemble 2 is a kind of optimistic assumption, once the Aguiars empirical rule is
valid for a constant value for evapotranspiration. So, once an increase in evapotranspiration is
expected as consequence of global change, it is also expected that the run-off increases a little
less than the obtained by Aguiars formulation. On the other hand, the first ensemble is a kind
of pessimistic regarding to reservoir inflow, because some increase in run-off is expected due
to the increase in precipitation.
The computations to estimate the global change impacts on water availability were
performed in the following steps:
1- The initial condition are that in the year 2000, with the data got from the Jaguaribe
River Basin Water Management Plan (COGERH, 1999).

2- For each ensemble, it were built 10 hydrological scenarios ( KX varying from 1.02
to 1.20) and computed the values of precipitation, evaporation and reservoir
inflows. The coefficient of variation was assumed constant and equal to the
conditions in the scenario of the year 2000.
3- For each scenario, there were estimated the reservoir yield and efficiency,
according to two methodologies: a) using Monte Carlo simulation and b) using an
empirical formulation for an infinite reservoir (Campos and Ibiapina, 1997;
Campos, Studart and Ibiapina, 2001)
In addition it was also estimated the impact in the reservoir yield for the global change
in precipitation, evaporation and run-off estimated in the Waves project. This estimation was
done only by the infinite reservoir procedure.
Yield estimation using Monte Carlo simulation
The reservoir water budget was solved using Campos (1987; 1996) formulation. The
procedure consists in making a parameterization of the budget equation and computes the
yield using Monte Carlo simulation. The water budget can be represented by equations 1 and
2, as follows:
Zt + 1 = Zt + It - M - ( 1/2 ).( At +1 + At ).E - St

(1)

St = max ( Zt + It M. ( 1/2 ).( At + 1 + At ).Ev - K; 0 )

(2)

with

where Zt

+ 1

and Zt storage at the beginning of the (t+1)th and tth years, respectively; It

inflow into the reservoir during the tth year; M release from the reservoir during year the t th
(M is assumed constant from year to year); At+1 and At - lake area at the beginning of the
(t+1) th and t th years; Ev - mean evaporation depth during the dry season (Ev is assumed
constant from year to year); K - reservoir capacity and St - spill from the reservoir during the
t th year.
The reservoir and lake morphologies are described, respectively, by Z(h)=.h3 and A(h)=
3..h. The value can be estimated from a regression equation between the lake level (h)
and the stored volume (Z). Considering Z(h) and A(h), Equation 1 can be rewritten as
Equation 3:
Z 2/ 3 + Zt2 /3
Zt +1 = Zt + I t 31/3 t +1
E St
2

The reservoir budget equation is reduced to the following parametric presentation:

(3)

fM = (CV, G, fK, fE)

(4)

where G is the reservoir reliability (assumed 90%) in this study, fK is the dimensionless
capacity ( K/ ), fE is the dimensionless evaporation factor computed by (3 1/3 EV) / 1/3 and
fM is the dimensionless release in steady state conditions estimated by fM = M/.
The Equation 4 is solved for synthetic inflows, for an gamma distribution function,
using a coefficient of variation of annual inflows equal to 1.57.
The yield from an infinite reservoir
To estimate the global impacts on an infinite reservoir yield (theoretically, the
maximum yield from a basin controlled by a single reservoir), it was used the equation
defined by Campos, Studart and Ibiapina (2001). Assuming reliability (G) of 90%, the authors
obtained a general equation for reservoirs efficiency (M) on the steady state of the storage
process (Equation 5).
M = 0.99 exp [-fE / (1.5031 - 1.7104CV + 0.8555CV - 0.1528CV)

(5)

Only two input parameters are necessary: the coefficient of variation of annual inflows
(CV) and the dimensionless factor of evaporation (fE). This equation is valid for CV ranging
from 0.5 to 1.6 and fE ranging from 0.05 to 2.0. In this study the reservoirs efficiency will be
estimated for CV=1 to 1.6 and for the various values of fE defined in ensembles 1 and 2.
The infinite reservoir efficiency (M) and the dimensionless factor of release (fM) are related
by M = 0.95 fM and the reservoir annual release (M) is given by M = 1.05..M.
RESULTS
The results obtained were grouped and analysed by hydrological modifications
standards (ensembles) and by the methodology used in yield evaluation.
Ensemble 1 estimated by Monte Carlo simulations
The results (Table 1) show that there are a negative trend in water availability and in
reservoir efficiency. For example, if the mean precipitation and evaporation increases 4%, the
reservoir yield drops from 5.48 hm3 /year to 5.39 hm3 /year (approximately 1.7%). Regarding
to reservoirs efficiency, it remains constant for a significance of 0.01.

Table 1. Values of annual yield (M) and reservoir efficiency () for 90% reliability,
computed by Monte Carlo Simulations, in ensemble 1
KX
fE
M
fM

=0.95 fM
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.20

(hm/year)

(hm/year)

42.58
43.43
44.28
45.13
45.98
46.84
47.69
48.54
49.39
50.24
51.09

66.85
68.18
69.52
70.86
72.20
73.53
74.87
76.21
77.54
78.88
80.22

(hm/year)

0.36
0.36
0.37
0.37
0.38
0.38
0.39
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.41

5.48
5.47
5.39
5.39
5.29
5.23
5.17
5.15
5.06
5.05
4.99

0.13
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10

0.12
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09

Note: The reference scenario (year 2000) is shaded.

Ensemble 1 with yield estimated by infinite reservoir equation

The analysis shows that there are a slight positive trend in reservoir yield. Notice that
this yield represents the maximum controllable yield in the basin. So, regarding to maximum
regulation capacity, in case of hydrologically balanced changes (ensemble 1), the impact of
global change in Vrzea do Boi River Basin will be slightly positive.
Table 2. Values of annual yield (M) and reservoir efficiency () for 90% reliability for an
infinite reservoir in ensemble 1
KX
fE
M

=0.95 fM
(hm/year)

(hm/year)

1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.20

42.58
43.43
44.28
45.13
45.98
46.84
47.69
48.54
49.39
50.24
51.09

0.36
0.36
0.37
0.37
0.38
0.38
0.39
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.41

15.16
15.24
15.32
15.40
15.47
15.54
15.61
15.67
15.73
15.78
15.83

0.12
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09

Note: The reference scenario (actual values) is shaded.

Ensemble 2 with yield estimated by Monte Carlo simulations

Ensemble 2 embraces the scenarios where precipitation and evaporation increase in
the same ratio (K X) and run-off increases in a rate KR, according to Aguiars rule (Equation 6)
R(mm) = 28.53H 112.9H +351.91H-118.74H4

(6)

where H is the mean annual precipitation over the basin and R(mm) is the run-off in
millimeters, for an unit basin. Using H=0.52 as initial condition, one can find the reference

run-off for an unit basin (Rmm) equal to 25.02 mm. The other values of Rmm (for each
precipitation H) are evaluated by Equation 6. The KR values are obtained dividing the
correspondent Rmm by Rmm. The mean annual inflow () in each scenario KX is estimated
by multiplying the mean annual inflow of the initial conditions (42.58 hm/year) by the
correspondent KR. The results are showed in Table 3.
Table 3. Values of annual yield (M) and the reservoir efficiency () for a 90% reliability,
computed by Monte Carlo Simulations, in ensemble 2
KX
H
R
KR
fE
M
fM =0.95 fM

1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.20

(m)

(mm)

0.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.58
0.59
0.60
0.61
0.62

25.02
26.39
27.81
29.29
30.82
32.41
34.05
35.75
37.51
39.32
41.19

(hm/year)

(hm/year) (hm/year)

1.00
1.05
1.11
1.17
1.23
1.29
1.36
1.43
1.50
1.57
1.65

42.58
44.91
47.34
49.85
52.46
55.17
57.96
60.86
63.84
66.93
70.11

66.85
70.51
74.32
78.27
82.37
86.61
91.00
95.54
100.24
105.08
110.08

0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.37
0.37
0.37

5.48
5.64
5.74
5.93
6.08
5.96
6.00
5.98
5.95
6.02
6.00

0.13
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09

0.12
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.08

It can be seen in Table 3 a positive trend in water availability for KX ranging from 1.02
to 1.08. For instance, when precipitation increases 4%, the reservoir yield increases 4.7%.
That is, in the global change assumptions of ensemble 2, it is expected a reasonable gain in
water availability. For values of KX greater than 1.08, the value of reservoir yield decreases
and increases in an irregular way.
Ensemble 2 with yield estimated by infinite reservoir equation
The analysis showed that there is positive trend in reservoir yield. Regarding to
maximum capacity of regulation, in case of hydrologically balanced changes (ensemble 2),
the impact of global change in Vrzea do Boi River Basin will be positive regarding to water
availability. Regarding the efficiency, otherwise, there are a slightly negative trend (Table 4).

Table 4. Values of annual yield (M) and reservoir efficiency () for 90% reliability and
infinite reservoir, in ensemble 2.
KX
KR
fE
M

=0.95 fM
(hm/year)

(hm/year)

1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.20

1.00
1.05
1.11
1.17
1.23
1.29
1.36
1.43
1.50
1.57
1.65

42.58
44.91
47.34
49.85
52.46
55.17
57.96
60.86
63.84
66.93
70.11

0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.37
0.37
0.37

15.16
15.95
16.78
17.63
18.51
19.43
20.38
21.36
22.37
23.41
24.48

0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33

Scenario Waves: According to WAVES Program Climate Group and running the
hydrological model named WASA, there will be a decrease in precipitation (-12%), run-off
(-32%) and evaporation (-0.1%). The coefficient of variation of annual inflows is almost the
same (present 1.21 and future 1.22). In that case, there will be a decrease both on annual
yielded and on reservoir efficiency (Table 5)
Table 5. Annual yield (M) and efficiency () for a infinite reservoir considering WAVES
global change (it is assumed G=90%)
Reference scenario
Waves scenario

fE

CV

0.27
0.38

1.21
1.22

23.25
11.87

0.52
0.39

FINAL COMMENTS
The results of this research regarding to impacts of global change in water availability in
Vrzea do Boi river basin reach the following conclusions:

for the WAVES global change scenario, the water availability in assumption of an infinite
reservoir, maximum yield in the basin, the reservoir yield drops from 23.25 hm3 /year to
11.87 hm3 /year ( 49 %), and the reservoir efficiency drops from 52% to 39%;

for the hydrologically balanced changes ensemble 1 (precipitation, evaporation and

inflows increasing at the same ratio) there are an negative trend in the reservoir yield and
efficiency in the actual topology of Vrzea do Boi River Basin. On the other hand, in the
assumption of infinite reservoir, basin run-off totally controlled, there is a slightly positive
trend in reservoir yield and a negative trend in reservoir efficiency;

for the hydrologically balanced changes ensemble 2 (precipitation and evaporation

increasing at the same ratio, and inflows increasing according Aguiars polynomial rule)
there is a positive trend in the reservoir yield for the actual topology of Vrzea do Boi

River Basin as well as for the totally controlled basin. On the other hand, in both
situations a decrease in reservoir efficiency is predicted.
The general conclusion is that, in case of WAVES scenario, there are substantial losses in
water availability in the basin. On the other hand, if the global change are hydrologically
balanced, as prior defined, most of results point out to an increase in water availability in the
basin. Only in the pessimistic assumption of evaporation, precipitation and inflows increasing
at the same rate, there will be small losses on the reservoir yield. In the case of totally
controlled basin and hydrologically balanced changes, it is expected gains of water
availability in the basin.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors would like to thank CNPq for supporting the research.
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