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This article surveys firm behavior and competitive structure in American
computing during the past 50 years and places the industry within the context of American political economy It argues thaf leading firms such as lBM,
Apple, and Microsoft have exhibited a capacity to strike compromises between innovation and stability Through selective enforcement of the antitrust laws, government has tolerated and even encouraged such behavior
The computer industry has thus followed patterns established in other endeavors such as electric power and telephony
ction
he remarkable history of the American computer industry
can perhaps best be understood as a sustained drive toward
aturization punctuated by a series of technical compromises.
Even the most casual observer could likely identify the main
course of change. Sustained improvements in manufacturing
technology have enabled producers of solid state components to
cram ever more circuitry into smaller spaces for far less cost.
Riding the natural trajectory of this revolution in miniature,
computer designers and programmers have produced machines of
markedly increased capabilities and steadily diminishing expense
[I]. Less appreciated, it seems, are the pauses along the way. For
amid the ever advancing tide of miniaturization, the computer industry has periodically stabilized around a basic technological configuration involving standard components, logical design, and operating software. Each of these interludes has necessarily involved the
same basic compromise. The potential for more rapid and more
radical change at the technical frontiers of the industry has been
sacrificed in exchange for the perceived benefits of standardization.
These critical compromises have typically been orchestrated
by powerful firms that dominated the market for computing. For
much of the industrys history, giant International Business Ma(IBM) performed this vital function. Capitalit had developed in the electromechanical era
of data processing, IBM quickly garnered over 80% of the market for electronic computers, a position it held for over a quarter
century [2].With the advent of personal or desktop computing,
IBM came to, share the role with Apple Computer, an upstart
that had introduced a measure of predictability into the chaotic
realm of individualistic hackers. More recently, the mantel has
passed to IBMs former suppliers, Intel and Microsoft. All of
these businesses have consistently demonstrated an ability to
assert a degree of order over computing technology without
unduly stifling subsequent development. Their capacity to do so
has made them and the American industry the envy of peoples
and nations around the world
Though this essential capacity for compromise has resided in
private firms operating in a competitive marketplace, the fedeial
government has had a significant hand in its creation and sustenance During the early phases of the industry, military procurement programs helped foster a brand of competition that
rewarded firms such as IBM When the commeicial market
blossomed during the 1950s, the principal locus of government
activity shifted to the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department Through a variety of well-publicized consent decrees,
lawsuits, and settlements, the Justice Department would, during
the next four decades, persistently leave industry leaders intact
while undoubtedly shading their subsequent behavior in more
competitive and innovative directions Meanwhile, as computer
technology increasingly converged with that of communications, the regulatory appdratus of the Federal Communications
Commission and its associated Congressional committees came
into play as well Using these three tools-procurement, antitrust, and regulation-the
federal government established a
framework that tolerated and even encouraged the emergence of
dominant firms, so long as they exhibited a willingness to make
useful tradeoffs between stability and innovation
In highlighting the role of compromise, the following brief
survey makes no claims that the particular series of tradeoffs
struck by dominant firms and their watchdogs have produced the
single best possible outcome Compromises always come at some
cost and never satisfy all interested parties They leave behind
many losers, who are left to ponder whether their alternative path
would not have proved the better course The recurrent antitrust
proceedings that have persistently hovered around the computer
industry give powerful testimony to their frustrations Though
those proceedings have generally exonerated the dominant firms,
tions. But these same qualities can also give large firms and public agencies the ability to accomplish certain tasks more readily
than anyone else. The market provides a selection mechanism,
matching tasks that may originate from shifting desires or from
technical novelties with those institutions best capable of performing them [ 5 ] . This is precisely what happened in the early
computer industry. The task of building computers and placing
them in various corners of the market involved a mix of knowledge and capabilities that matched those existing at IBM extraordinarily well.
of
That market was especially attractive because of the approach the government took to computing Froin the beginning, the government did not attempt to taiget fiims with the
most impressive research organizations In other words, it did
not pursue a supply-side approach, in which it assumed that
money spent on research would ultimately yield computers
Instead, the vast majority of its support came in the form of
purchase orders for computing power The government, acting
as an informed first user, set goals and put out bids to have
them met Moreover, it did so not through a single, coordinated plan, but by placing money in the hands of many different organizations that each put out their own contracts for bid
Each of the armed services acted as a consumei, as did the
laboratories of the Atomic Energy Commission, as did the
large manufacturers of aircraft operating under government
contract In effect, the government set up a market for powerful computers-a market of informed useis who each expected to
exert sufficient input into the design of their machine to ensure
that it performed the particular operations they desired [lo]
This was a market that suited IBM perfectly The companys
entire culture was dedicated to the task of meeting specific data
processing problems in the field The only significant difference
between large electromechanical data processing installations and
these machines was that the computers would use vacuum tubes
instead of electromechanical relays and would involve a staggering amount of wiring But these differences appear trivial when
placed in the total context of the task Computers called for extensive sales, maintenance, programming, and field engineering
Within the plant, the company would look, as always, for ways to
build standardization into the machines while retaining sufficient
flexibility to meet the demands of each user At this point, before
the advent of lower-cost memory enabled users to reprogram the
bay. Americans themselves, secure in their position of world leadership, pursued a less interventionist strategy. Government actually reduced its role as a procurer of computing technology and
instead came to rely almost wholly upon the tools and traditions
of antitrust to monitor the industry. IBM, with its enormous share
of the market, presented an obvious target. From the moment the
firm entered into a consent decree with the Justice Department in
1956 until a 13-year lawsuit against it was deemed without
merit in 1982, IBM attracted virtually continual attention from
antitrust investigators and the courts. These proceedings chastened IBM, but they ultimately left the firm intact and effectively
certified the paradigm of computing it had long pursued.
In reaching this series of antitrust judgements, Americans
struck basically the same compromise that had characterized so
many of IBMs own decisions regarding computing. They
weighed the benefits of standardization against the potential for
further innovation. Influential figures in the regulatory apparatus viewed the computer giant as a useful intermediary between
a rapidly changing technology and a market of consumers who
were anxious to put that technology to a variety of uses. By
controlling such a large share of the market for central processors and peripherals, IBM instilled a measure of stability into an
industry that very well could have foundered in a sea of conflicting, incompatible approaches. It provided the emerging
semi-conductor industry with demand for standardized components, and it enabled programmers to develop a few basic languages and then allocate their energies toward developing specific applications. The consent decree of 1956 sought to ensure
that IBM would perform a similar function for manufacturers of
punched cards and peripherals. The decree required IBM to sell,
as well as lease, its products and to allow consumers to purchase parts of their systems from competitors [20].
In taking this approach to the nascent computer industry, government followed patterns it had developed in response to other
emergent industries [21]. At the turn of the century, for instance,
antitrusters had tolerated a duopoly of General Electric and
Westinghouse in electric power. These firms quickly established
standards and helped rapidly transform a technical novelty into a
utility that local power companies, manufacturers of appliances,
and consumers could take for granted [22]. Of more immediate
relevance to computing, perhaps, were stances taken toward the
telephone system and broadcasting networks. In telephony, state
and federal governments had struck a basic bargain with AT&T,
allowing it to function as a near-monopolist so long as it subjected
itself to rate regulation and pursued a vigorous program of innovation [23]. If AT&T showed signs of abusing its power, as when
it attempted to monopolize network radio broadcasting during the
twenties, the government again threatened antitrust action. When
AT&T agreed to act as a common carrier, providing long-distance
services to anyone wishing to link together a series of radio or
television stations, broadcasting came into the hands of a few
powerful networks. They, too, soon found themselves operating
under the regulatory umbrella of the Federal Communications
Commission [24]. The FCC sought to ensure that broadcast networks would not control the content of programming but would
instead act as brokers between programmers and the public. Justice Department officials hoped IBM would perform a similar
intermediary function in computing, acting as a broker or common carrier for component manufacturers and programmers.
The governments strategy was not without risks. A firm with
IBMs market power could potentially exert pressure on suppliers
and customers and effectively dictate technical choices for the
industry as a whole. For a decade after the consent decree, competitors made little headway in getting their peripherals attached
to IBM systems. Some industry observers complained that banks
and insurance companies unduly influenced IBM and kept it from
aggressively pursuing applications and approaches to computing
that would have suited more creative customers. By the early sixties,
Proliferating Options,
Persistent Compromises
The fundamental source of change in computing during the
seventies and eighties remained the same as before. Continual
refinement of solid state production technology made avalable
processors of much higher speed and also dramatically iiicreased the memory and storage capacities of computing systems Increased capacities gave programmers much greater
latitude Instead of devoting the lions share of their energies to
conserving processor time, programmers increasingly could
focus their efforts on making computers receive data in different
forms, manipulate it in various ways, and present the results in
more comprehensible fashion Data processing continued its
metamorphosis into information processing
Much of this transformation occurred within the basic paradigm IBM had established Indeed, Systed360 and its successors
performed even better than IBM had hoped The modular design
enabled IBM to incorporate the benefits of volume production,
dnving down prices and bnnging computing into far more realins
than it had ever reached before Modularity also gave IBM the
flexibility to respond to shifting demands for computing applications Its systems met the growing interest in time-shaiing and
also proved capable of accommodating the veritable revolution in
pnnting and copying that occurred following introduction of the
Xerox 914 photocopier during the early 1960s
Though IBM managers and shareholders certainly had ample
cause to celebrate, critics of the company could find considerable solace as well System/360 and its successors did, after all,
make computing available to far more consumers and enable
them to perform a much broader iange of tasks There weie
signs, moreover, that IBM would face increasing competition as
its machines grew more commonplace The combination of
modularity and systems applications such as time-sharing
opened huge opportunities for equipment manufacturers to concentrate on building lower-cost versions of common components such as printers and terminals The 1956 consent deciee
had at last begun to bear fruit Additional competition came
from dynamic new firms such as Digital Equipment Company
and Wang Industries Taking advantage of the plummeting cost
and shrinkmg size of components, these start-up companies
built mini-computers tailored to serve particular types of users [39] They carved out niches in the steadily expanding market for computing DEC, led by the maverick engineer and
businessman Kenneth Olsen, marketed a series of Personal Data
Processors that proved especially attractive to scientists and to
educators in university computing programs Wang, formed by
Harvard University professor An Wang, focused on office applications Touting the image of a paperless office, Wang emphasized network installations The phenomenal success of such
firms prompted IBM to respond with an array of new computers
targeted for particular markets
9. This and the following three paragraphs owe much to [30]
o n ~ l ~ sand
i ~ Prospects
~ s
The Sematech venture and the Justice Department settlement
with Microsoft demonstrate both the continuing importance of
technical compromise to the computer industry and the sustained
commitment of public policy makers to promoting it.* Though
each left the dominant firms largely unaltered and free for the
moment to compete without significant restriction in the marketplace, they also left little doubt that all aspects of computing
would continue to operate under the watchful eye of the govemmeut. Indeed, by early 1995 a federal judge had already overturned the settlement between the Justice Department and Microsoft. As the former combatants joined in unlikely alliance to ap12 Whether Seinatech deserves any credit for the recovery of the
American semiconductor industry remains a matter of some question. The
decision not to renew its charter hardly suggests a ringing endorsement,
though defendcrs stress that Sematech had performed a vital service and
was simply no longer needed. Regardless of its effectiveness, however, the
initiative certainly does nothing to diminish the perceived importance of
flexible compromise to the computer industry. For it is precisely the ability to strike compromises that defenders claim for Sematech and that its
detractors claim for the open market.
REFERENCES
The standard source is Ernest Braun, Revolution in Miniature:
The History and Impact of Semiconductor Electronics, New
York, 1978. For additional information, see Kenneth Flamm,
Creating the Computer: Government, Industry, and High Technology, Washington, D.C., 1988; Richard C. Lewin, The Semiconductor Industry, Government and Technical Progress: A
Cross-Industry Analysis, Richard R. Nelson, ed., New York,
1982, pp. 9-100; and David C. Mowery, Innovation, Market
Structure, and Government Policy in the Ainerican Semiconductor Electronics Industry: A Survey, Research Policy1
vol. 12, pp. 183-197, 1983. For an insightful introduction to the
concept of natural trajectories and to the related idea of technological paradigms, see Giovanni Dosi, Technological Paradigms
and Technological Trajectories, Research Policy, vol. 11,
pp. 147-162, 1982. Borrowing from theories o f scientific change,
Dosi suggests that technology moves forward in waves, with a
major breakthrough followed by a succession of modifications
that move naturally toward a readily perceptible end. He cites the
semiconductor industry as a prime example.
Gerald W. Brock, The U.S. Computer Industry: A Study of Market
see Thomas Parke Hughes, British Electrical Industry Lag: 18821888, Technology and Culture vol. 3, pp. 27-44, 1962, and Thomas
P. Hugkes, Networks of Power: Electrification in Western Society,
1880-1930.Baltimore, 1983, pp. 227-261.
For an effort to place the history of American computing in the
larger context of telecommunications innovation and public policy,
see Steven W. Usselman, Computing and Cominunications Technology. The Encyclopedia of the United States in the Twentieth
Century, Stanley Kutler, ed., 1995.
On the evolutionary nature of economic development, see Richard R.
Nelson and Sidney G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic
For an excellent history and analysis of the minicomputer and micmcomputer industries, see Richard N. Langlois, External Economies
and Economic Progress: The Case of the Microcomputer Industry,
Business History Review, vol66, pp. 1-50, (1992).
Steven W. Usselman is an Associate Professor in the School of History, Technology, and Society at the Georgia Institute of
Technology. His essay, IBM and Its Imitators, won the 1993 Newcomen Prize for
excellence in business history. He is writing
a book on the strategic issues and organizational difficulties associated with IBMs
move into computing, culminating with
Systeml360.