THE CSI (CORRECT SCORE INVESTIGATION) FOOTBALL BETTING SYSTEM

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Table of Contents
Section

Page

Background

How Can We Make Money From This?

Staking Strategy

Boosting Your Profits

Early Season Exceptions

Games With The Same Kick-Off Time

Conclusion

Appendix

Background
The Correct Score market can be very profitable when we use statistics, along with a sensible staking plan. The
screenshots below show the range of full time scores and the related %s overthe 2013/14and2012/13seasonsin
theEnglishPremiership.

2013/2014Season

2012/2013Season

Source
http://www.soccerstats.com/trends.asp?league=en
gland_2014

Source
http://www.soccerstats.com/trends.asp?league=en
gland_2013

One specific score I want to focus on is the 10 scoreline. The table overleaf summarises the statistics of the 10
scorelineinmajorEuropeanleaguesoverrecentseasons.

League

2013/2014Season

2012/2013Season

EnglishPremiership

12%

11%

SpanishLaLiga

11%

11%

ItalianSerieA

11%

10%

GermanBundesliga

6%

6%

FrenchLigue1

11%

12%

HollandEredivisie

5%

6%

As you can see there is a very consistent trend in the Premiership,La Liga, Seria A and Ligue1,withbetween10%
and12%ofgamesending10.WearegoingtoexcludetheBundesligaandEredivisieforthissystem.

You may see the same trend in various other worldwide leagues. I suggest only using leagues where the 10
scoreline occurred at least 10% of the time or more over the last 2 seasons. You can find such statistics at
www.soccerstats.com
andallinformationcanbeaccessedforfree.

HowCanWeMakeMoneyFromThis?
The typical odds of a 10 game can range from between 7.0 to 12.0 on the betting exchanges and traditional
bookmakers. Based on the % ranges above, we would expect a price range of 8.3 to 10.0 on theaverage game
ending 10. We are notfocusingonapotentialpricerange mismatch,butratherfocusingonareliable andconsistent
trend.Andthiswillmakeusmoney.

We want to place continuous bets on the 10 scoreline in these type of leagues over the course of the season,
knowingthatonaverage,betweenevery8thand10thgamewillgiveusawinningresult.

StakingStrategy
Given that thevastmajorityofourbetswillendaslosingbets,weneedtoput inplace aprogressivestakingstrategy,
starting atalowbaseandincreasingslowlyupwards.Thismeansaftereachloss, weincreaseour stake. Oncewe hit
awinner,wecanthenresetthestakebacktothestakeusedin Bet 1. A quick examplecanbe seen below,assuming
we areplacingbetsonthe10scorelineintheEnglishPremiership, startingwitha1.00initialstakeandprogressing
ourstakesby0.50aftereachlosingbetuptoBet10andby0.75fromBet11onwards.

Game

Odds

Stake

Result

P&L

ChelseavArsenal

7.4

1.00

21

(1.00)

SouthamptonvWestBrom

7.6

1.50

11

(2.50)

ManCityvStokeCity

11.0

2.00

31

(4.50)

SwanseavEverton

8.4

2.50

02

(7.00)

ManUtdvNewcastle

8.2

3.00

21

(10.00)

BurnleyvHull

7.6

3.50

10

+13.10

AfterBet6,wegetourfirstwinandthisclosestheSeries,withaprofitofover13.

Thisis a veryconservative Martingale system. If we used fixed stakes, this strategy would not work astheaverage
price of the 10 scoreline does not exceed the oddsofthe10occurring,which basically means youwill makea loss
overthelongterm.

What if you have a longer run of losses? How does the P&L turn out if there is a longer Series of losses? The
Appendix highlights the results assuming a 1.00 initial stake, with a 0.50 stake increase for each losing bet
betweenBet1and10anda0.75stakeincreasebetweenBet11and20.Averageoddsaresetat9.0.

As you can see, there is a strong profit making potential right up to Bet 17. If you end theseriesoflossesafterBet
18,you end with a breakeven outcome. For us to consistently get above Bet 17 in our Series, wewouldexpectthe
10 scoreline to occur 5.5% over a season. But remember, we expect at least double that (11%+) so our Series
shouldalwayscloseoutfarfarearlier.

Pleasenotetwothings
1) A losing Series of 17 or 18 bets is extremely rare (especially when the next sub section shows youhowto
improveyourstrikerateandgetahigher%thattheaverageseasonrate).
2) Ifyou ever run a Series of losses this long, you can decide to cut your losses and reset the stake backto
1.00. This has never happened to me before. If you choose this route, you will have had multiple
successfulSeriesinthepast(withprofitsintheregionof16to18)tobufferagainstthisexceptionalevent.

Thisstakingstrategy allows youtoexploitaconsistenttrendindifferent footballleagues, withprogressivestakes ina

verysafe manner. Your average profit per Series will beinthatregionof16to18which isverylucrative basedoff
thelowamountofresearchandeffortrequired.

I have only used the staking amounts in the section asillustration.Remember,the staking shouldbebasedonwhat
you can afford to invest into this system and can be lower or higher. The key is to follow the system sensibly, not
chase early losses and understand that you will have far more losses than wins, but you will be ultimately more
profitable.

BoostYourProfits
AssumingwearetalkingabouttheEnglishPremiership,had youbacked the10 scoreline ineverygamethe2013/14
season,youwouldhavehadastrikerateof12%.

If you have a higher strike rate, you will have higher profits as each Series will end quicker, assuming an even
distributionofresults.

Inordertoimproveyourstrikerateandprofitsdrastically,applythefollowingrules:
1. Avoid betting on the 10 scoreline when a Super Favourite is playing away from home against weaker
opposition. A Super Favourite isateamwithoddsofbelow1.66towin. Weakeropposition wouldusuallybe
in the lower tier of the division. Super Favourites almost always score away from home in these type of
games.TypicalexamplesareChelsea,RealMadrid,Barcelona,Ajaxetc.
2. If you want to do some more indepth research before the game and feel the home team are weak at the
back,have an injury crisis, have aninexperiencedgoalkeeperetc,then thishardwork willhelpyouimprove
your strike rate. If you do not have the time or knowledge, it is ok, you will still be profitable with the
suggestedstakingplan.

Remember,an away goal willinstantlymakeourbetaloser.Ifyouhaveanindicationthatthe away teammayscore,

thenomitthesegamesfromyourselections.

EarlySeasonExceptions
Another important trend to examine is the current season % of10scorelinesagainstthe historic trendsinthesame
league. For example, suppose by Jan 2015, only 7% of games in the English Premiership for the 2014/15 season
have ended at 10. This indicates an exception in the trend compared to previousseasons.Wewouldexpect11%+
based of our historic trends. This leads to the potential for a more aggressive staking strategy in the second halfof
theseason,asweshouldseeafarlargeramountofgamesending10.

GamesWithTheSameKickOffTime
How do you plan your staking if there are multiple games kicking off at the sametime?Suppose thereare5games
withacoterminouskickofftimeof3pmonthesameday.

Thefirstthingtodoistoeliminateanygameswhichshouldbeavoided(e.g.ifa Super Favourite isplayingawayfrom

homeorifthereissomeprematchnewswhichhighlightstoyouthattheawayteamislikelytoscore).

Thenextstepistoplaceabetonallremaininggames.

Suppose you have 4 games left, which are all kicking off at the same time. What stake should be placed on each
one?

Use price as the guide here. For thisexampleIamassumingwearestartinga new Series from Bet 1. Ifgame1and
2have a 10 Correct Score price of 9.4 and9.0,thengame 1should beallocateda stakeof1 andgame2,astake
of1.50.Ifgame3and4havepricesof8.4and8.0,thentheygetallocatedastakeof2and2.50respectively.

What if twoor moregames have the exact same price? I suggest you use your own analysis todeterminewhichis
themostlikelytoend10andassignthelargeststaketothisgameandthesmallerstake/stotheremaininggame/s.

The benefit of this entire approach is that you are not leaving out any valid games which could end10 and also
assigning the largest stake to the game most likely to end 10, thereby improving your profitin theearlystages of a
Series.

Conclusion
Thisis a simpleand effectivesystemandhasavalidbasisusinghistoricaltrends.Of course,wecannotassumethat
thesetrendswillrepeateachseason,butweshouldnotseedrasticswingsinthe%ranges.

Thekeytothisistobeabletotoleratefarmorelossesthanwins.

I suggest having a separate Series for separate leagues. I also suggest building up a reserve incase you do
experience a Series where you just have to end up cutting your losses. This event is extremely rare, and with our
enhancedstrikerateagainsttheseasonsaverage,weshouldnevercometothiseventuality.

Finally, any extra research you can do shouldonlyimproveyourstrikerate.Isuggestgoing to

www.soccerstats.com
for afree wealth of information if you havethetimetodothis.As Isaid,ifyou donot have thetime,thatisok,as the
ideaofthissystemistoallowyoutoearngoodprofitfromminimaleffort.

Appendix