Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Institutional Equities
1Q2011
India - Mid-caps
Santanu Chakrabarti
VDQWDQX#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4667
Akash Chattopadhyay
DNDVKFKDWWRSDGK\D\#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4668
Arnab Mitra
DUQDEPLWUD#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4661
Bijal Shah
ELMDO#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4645
Devesh Agarwal
GHYHVKDJDUZDO#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4647
Harshvardhan Dole
KDUVKGROH#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4660
Jatin Chawla
MDWLQFKDZOD#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4654
Sampath Kumar
VDPSDWKNXPDU#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4665
Sangeetha Saranathan
VDQJHHWKD#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4644
Srinivasan R
VULQLYDVDQU#LLFDSFRP
(91 22) 4646 4652
Contents
Eight bottom-up investment ideas ..............................................................1
A time for stock-picking.............................................................................2
Consumption unbound a structural shift ....................................................4
Eight investment ideas criteria-based selection .........................................7
Companies
Amara Raja Batteries .............................................................................. 19
Bajaj Electricals...................................................................................... 37
Bajaj Finance ......................................................................................... 51
Emami .................................................................................................. 69
Havells India.......................................................................................... 89
HT Media............................................................................................. 107
Indraprastha Gas.................................................................................. 125
Pidilite Industries.................................................................................. 139
India - Mid-caps
AMRJIN
BJEIN
BAFIN
HMNIN
HAVLIN
HTMLIN
IGLIN
PIDIIN
CMP 12month
(Rs) upside(%)
171
64%
228
23%
660
59%
37%
357
348
36%
135
27%
305
31%
136
25%
MktCap
(US$m)
323
491
534
1,197
958
705
943
1,525
RoE(%)
FY12
20.6
24.7
23.0
33.8
48.2
14.3
24.2
29.8
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
1
1
India - Mid-caps
Sep10
May10
Jan10
Sep09
May09
Jan09
Sep08
May08
Jan08
Sep07
May07
Jan07
Sep06
May06
Jan06
(40.0)
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
1015%
1520%
2030%
Greaterthan
30%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
2
2
India - Mid-caps
Figure4: 5yearannualisedreturndistributionofmidcaps(2006marketcap
<Rs50bn)(Samplesize280stocks)
50%
%frequency
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Lessthan10%
1015%
1520%
2030%
Greaterthan
30%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Mid-cap return distribution
is more right skewed
From the above charts it is evident that the right skew (probability of
asymmetric positive return) appears higher in the mid-cap group.
This puts a premium on stock-picking in the mid-cap space. Also
chances of a sub-10% return (which one can define as failure in the
investment context) are remarkably similar across both groups.
As far as success stories go, consider the examples of Shriram
Transport Finance and Titan Industries that have delivered
annualised returns of 47.5% and 34.2% over the last five years vs
13.1% for the Nifty Index. It is worthwhile to note that most such
success stories have been dominant players in large opportunity
spaces with a business model that has been profitable through
cycles. They have also been typically entrepreneurial organisations.
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
3
3
India - Mid-caps
FY02
FY03
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
India is a beneficiary of
rising income levels across
categories and a larger
consuming class
Figure6: Indiaspopulationintheworkingagegroupismovingup
%ofpopulationintheagegroupof1564
68%
66%
64%
62%
60%
58%
56%
54%
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
2041
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Indian market has massive
untapped potential
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
4
4
India - Mid-caps
Figure7: Penetrationlevelsinpersonalcareandfoodsareverylow
Urbanpenetration(%)
Ruralpenetration(%)
100%
80%
60%
40%
Choco
lates
Milk
powder
Soft
Drinks
Skin
cream
Talcum
Balms
Shampoo
Biscuits
Tooth
paste
Soap
0%
Detergent
20%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Rural market has been the key growth driver and will remain
so
The key driver for the shift in consumption growth has been the rural
market, which forms c70% of Indias population. Rural markets,
which were earlier a laggard to urban market growth, have actually
outgrown the urban markets in the past three years. The key factors
that have led to this growth are: 1) strong price increases of agri
commodities; 2) sustained investment by the government in rural
income generation programmes like the National Rural Employment
Guarantee Act (NREGA) and rural infrastructure; and 3) the
increasing media reach in rural areas, which have created
awareness. Consumer companies have also done their bit by
bringing out low unit packs to generate trials among rural consumers
and expanding rural distribution. We feel that the policy focus on
such rural schemes is here to stay and there is much more capacity
available in the distribution framework that consumer companies
have created. These drivers should sustain the buoyancy in the rural
economy.
Figure8: Agricommoditypriceshaverisenmuchmoreinthepastsixyearsas
comparedtotheprevious6yearperiod
10%
19972003
(CAGRinprices)
200309
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Foodgrains
Oilseeds
Pulses
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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5
India - Mid-caps
Figure9: NREGAhasbeenadriverforincomegrowthinruralareas
NREGA has been a growth
driver
NREGAs pend(US$bn)
9
8.0
5.8
CAGR61%
5
3
3.4
1.9
1
1
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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6
India - Mid-caps
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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7
India - Mid-caps
Figure10:Vulnerabilityevaluationmatrix
Demand
slowdownrisk
AmaraRajaBatteries
Medium
BajajElectricals
Low
BajajFinance
Medium
Emami
Low
HavellsIndia
Low
HTMedia
Low
IndraprasthaGas
Low
Pidilite
Low
Leverageand
vulnerabilityto
ratehikes
Low
Low
Medium
Low
Medium
Low
Low
Low
Possiblemargin
pressurerisk
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Multiple examples of
demonstrated pricing
power
Figure11:Pricingpowerfewexamples
Companies
Example
AmaraRajaBatteries
Lead,whichisthekeyrawmaterial,isapassthroughfor
AmaraRajaintheautoOEMandindustrialsegments
(whichaccountsfor80%ofrevenuesforAmaraRaja).In
theremaining20%(autoreplacement)marketthereisa
duopolywithbothExideandAmaraRajapassingonraw
materialinflationtocustomers(AmaraRajathough
typicallyincreasespricesonlyafterExide,whichisthe
dominantplayerwitha70%share).
BajajElectricals
During3QFY11,theconsumersegmentmarginsexpanded
190bpsYoY,despite1520%increaseinrawmaterialcosts.
BajajFinance
Thelatestratehikeshavebeenpassedon(onthebackofa
250bpshikeinborrowingcosts,thecompanyhasraised
lendingratesbyabout200bps).
RaisedpricesinFair&Handsomessachetby40%fromRs5
Emami
toRs7in1QFY10andyetsawvolumesgrow1520%inthe
segment.DroppedgrammageinNavratnasachetsfrom
3.5mlto3mlin4QFY09andyetsaw15%volumegrowthin
thenextfewquarters.
HavellsIndia
Thecompanyhastaken1520%priceincreasesacross
categoriesin3QFY11,aspricesofkeyrawmaterials,
copperandaluminum,hardened.
IndraprasthaGas
In1QFY11,IGLhikedCNGpricesby26%postthe
governmentdoublingthepricesofdomesticnaturalgas.
Pidilite
Thecompanyhastaken68%priceincreasesinindustrial
chemicalsand34%inconsumerandbazaarproductsas
VAM(VinylAcetateMonomer,keyrawmaterial)prices
inflated20%YoY.
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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8
India - Mid-caps
Figure12:Demandresiliencekeyarguments
Companies
Argument
AmaraRajaBatteries
Giventhehealthyvolumegrowthwitnessedinthelastfive
years,thereplacementbatterymarketwillseecontinued
tractionforthenextfewyearsgivinggoodviabilityon
volumesfromthissegment.EvenOEvolumesareexpected
toremainstrong,giventhehealthygrowthinincomesand
lowpenetration.Bulkofthetelecomtoweradditions
happenedinFY0708andhencedemandfromthis
segmenttooshouldbehealthy.
BajajElectricals
Sinceruralandsemiurbanmarketsarethemaindriversof
demandgrowthforthecompany,withagriculturalincomes
remainingstrong,weanticipatelittledipinthevolume
offtakeforappliancesintheseregions.Additionally,with
thegovernmenthavingpulleditsacttogetherinsemi
urbantowns(ifnotinruralareas)inimprovingtheiraccess
toelectricity,infrastructuresupportingthedemandgrowth
forapplianceproductsshouldalsosupportresiliencein
demandfortheirproducts.
BajajFinance
Demandforconsumerfinancialservicesisdrivenby
consumptiongrowthandrisingincomelevels.Boththese
remainaskeydriversofthebroadereconomyandhence
demandforconsumerlendingshouldremainrobust.
Emami
Emamiskeysegmentsdrawc50%revenuesfromrural
areas,whereincomegrowthhasbeenverystronghelped
byrisingagricommoditypricesandgovernmentspending.
HavellsIndia
JustasinthecaseofBajajElectricals,thecompanyisa
beneficiaryoftheelectrificationdriveinruralareasand
smallertowns.
HTMedia
Weexpectadspend inthecountrytoremainrobustdriven
bystrongconsumptiongrowthinthecountry.Furtherad
spendoflargecategorieslikeeducationandservices
amongotherswillnotbesignificantlyimpactedbyexternal
factors.
IndraprasthaGas
CosteconomicsforCNGascomparedtoliquidfuels(65%
cheapertopetroland25%cheapertodiesel)makesita
naturalchoiceforfuel,resultinginmoredemandforgas.
Alsopenetrationinnewmarketswillresultinhigher
demand.AvailabilityofRLNGtomeetthisdemandalong
withthepricingpowergivesusenoughcomfortthatIGL
canmeetourearningestimateof18%paoverFY1113ii.
Pidilite
Pidiliteskeycategoriesareconsumerstaplesandquasi
discretionarywhosedemandisnotlikelytobesignificantly
affectedbyaslowdown.
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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9
India - Mid-caps
Figure13:Balancesheethighlightsrobustposition
Grossdebtto
Netdebtto
equity(FY11)
equity(FY11)
AmaraRajaBatteries
0.1
0.1
BajajElectricals
0.2
0.1
BajajFinance
5.3
5.2
Emami
0.1
0.1
HavellsIndia
1.9
1.6
HTMedia
0.1
0.4
IndraprasthaGas
0.3
0.2
Pidilite
0.3
0.1
RoCE(%)
FY11
25.9
10.8
5.1
34.4
26.6
17.0
23.3
29.9
RoE(%)
FY11
27.6
23.7
19.0
32.9
50.0
12.5
25.1
31.3
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
LatinAmerica
India
World
6.0
0.0
(6.0)
(12.0)
2010(Growth%)
201014(%CAGR)
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
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10
India - Mid-caps
LNGImports
300
(mmscmd)
250
200
150
100
50
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Unleveraged household
balance-sheets
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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11
India - Mid-caps
Figure16:Consumerloanpenetration
(%)
120
105
100
100
92
80
60
60
52
40
22
20
15
0
Japan
UK
US
Singapore
Korea
Thailand
India
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Telecom
12%
UPS
12%
Automotive
replacement
40%
HomeInverter
10%
Others
6%
AutomotiveOEM
20%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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12
India - Mid-caps
Strong presence in
electrical consumer goods
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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13
India - Mid-caps
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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14
India - Mid-caps
Key risks
1. Generally the market position and dominance of smaller players
is weaker than their larger peers. However, most of our featured
stocks are dominant in their own niches. For example, Emami
has over 65% market share in pain balms.
2. Pricing power and ability to negotiate with suppliers is generally
higher in a large company than in a generic mid-cap. However,
there are exceptions to this rule as each market niche has it own
dynamics.
3. The bargaining power that the smaller companies enjoy in
institutional and wholesale debt markets is lower and the
vulnerability to a liquidity squeeze is higher (in terms of both cost
and availability of debt).
4. Mid-cap companies often tend to be promoter-driven entities,
where the number of highly qualified professionals is lower. This
could prove to be a serious impediment to gaining and managing
scale. A key criterion in our choice of investment
recommendations is if the management is keen or not on
divesting authority to a carefully chosen team that can take the
company forward. In the case of Emami, for example, although
outside managers are not in abundance, promoter managers
themselves are qualified professionals.
Figure18:Valuationtable
EPSCAGR(%) EV/EBITDA(x)
P/B(x)
CMP MktCap DailyVolume P/E(x)
(Rs) (US$m)
(US$m) FY11 FY12
FY1013ii FY11
FY12 FY11 FY12
AmaraRajaBatteries 171
323
0.8 11.0
9.0
6.0
6.3
5.1 2.2
1.9
BajajElectricals
228
491
1.0 15.1 11.5
21.6
8.7
6.6 3.6
2.8
BajajFinance
660
534
1.0 10.3
7.3
69.7
NA
NA 1.8
1.6
Emami
357
1,197
2.0 23.3 18.3
26.2 20.3
15.5 6.9
5.6
HavellsIndia
348
958
2.0 17.2 11.8
NA 10.0
7.9 7.1
4.8
HTMedia
135
705
0.4 18.8 14.2
28.0
8.1
5.9 2.4
2.0
IndraprasthaGas
305
943
2.0 16.9 14.8
17.7
9.1
7.7 4.2
3.6
Pidilite
136
1,525
0.7 21.8 17.9
20.3 14.8
12.2 5.9
4.9
RoE(%)
FY11
20.2
23.7
19.0
32.9
50.0
12.5
25.1
31.3
FY12
20.6
24.7
23.0
33.8
48.2
14.3
24.2
29.8
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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15
India - Mid-caps
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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16
India - Mid-caps
Companies
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17
India - Mid-caps
santanu@iiflcap.com
santanu@iiflcap.com
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18
Rs171
CMP
Rs280(64%)
Target12m
Marketcap(US$m)
Bloomberg
323
AMRJIN
Sector
Autos
14March2011
52WkHigh/Low(Rs)
226/138
Shareso/s(m)
85
Dailyvolume(US$m)
0.8
DividendyieldFY11ii(%)
1.4
Freefloat(%)
47.9
Shareholdingpattern(%)
Gallaandfamily
52.1
FIIs
2.4
DIIs
19.4
Public
26.1
Priceperformance(%)
1M
3M
1Y
AmaraRaja
5.5
0.1
5.2
Rel.toSensex
3.0
6.9
0.6
Shares(000')
The Challenger
Amara Raja Batteries Ltd (ARBL) is the second-largest
manufacturer of lead-acid batteries in India, with ~23%
share by volume of the organised battery market. We
estimate an earnings CAGR of ~30% over the next two years,
driven by capacity expansion in the automotive and twowheeler segments. In our view, concerns over its high
exposure to the telecom sector are overdone, and ignore the
companys strong performance in the automotive and UPS
segments. On the telecom side too, there are initial signs of
bottoming; we expect substantial improvement in this
segments revenues and margins in FY12. Valuations, at 9x
FY12ii EPS, are attractive for a branded consumer company.
Capacity expansion will drive growth in the auto segment: Low
penetration and rising incomes would drive healthy double-digit
growth across segments in the auto industry. Meanwhile, the highmargin replacement segment is set for a surge, as the last few years
strong growth in vehicle sales translates to replacement demand for
batteries. ARBL, which plans to increase its annual battery capacity for
4-wheelers from 4.2m batteries to 6m, and for 2-wheelers from 1.8m
to 5m by October 2011, should be a key beneficiary.
(Rs)
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Volume(LHS)
Price(RHS)
BUY
HBLPower
10.3 18.2 42.0
Exide
3.5 18.0 19.0
Stockmovement
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Amara Raja
250
200
150
100
50
0
Financialsummary(Rs m)
Y/e31Mar
Revenues(Rsm)
EBITDAMargins(%)
PreExceptionalPAT(Rsm)
ReportedPAT(Rsm)
EPS(Rs)
Growth(%)
IIFLvsconsensus(%)
PER(x)
ROE(%)
Debt/Equity(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Price/Book(x)
www.iiflcap.com
Source:Company,IIFLResearch.Priceasatcloseofbusinesson11March2011.
JatinChawla
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
912246464654
FY09A
13,330
12.5
801
801
9.4
40.3
FY10A
14,730
20.3
1,670
1,670
19.6
108.5
18.2
21.7
0.7
11.4
3.6
8.8
35.2
0.2
5.7
2.7
FY11ii
16,973
14.2
1,321
1,321
15.5
20.9
0.2
11.1
22.1
0.1
7.3
2.2
FY12ii
20,939
14.2
1,619
1,619
19.0
22.5
0.2
9.0
22.5
0.1
5.9
1.9
FY13ii
24,521
14.6
1,968
1,968
23.0
21.6
0.2
7.4
22.7
0.1
4.7
1.5
19
Company snapshot
Amara Raja Batteries Ltd (ARBL) is the second-largest manufacturer
of lead acid batteries in India, with ~23% share of the organised
battery market. Its association with Johnson Controls, the global
leader in lead acid batteries, has made ARBL technologically
advanced and thus enabled it to steadily increase its market share.
Background
Amara Raja started producing industrial batteries in 1992 after a
technology transfer deal with GNB. It entered the automotive
segment in 2000, after a tie-up with Johnson Controls in 1995.
Furthermore, the automotive segments contribution to ARBLs
revenues has increased from zero in FY2000 to 30% in FY05, and
further to 50% in FY10. Johnson Controls Inc (JCI) and the Galla
family are joint promoters, each owning 26% of ARBL. JCI was first
issued 23.8% shares in 1997, and increased its stake to 26% in
2001, via a preferential issue.
LeadisthekeyrawmaterialforAmaraRaja
Management
Name
Designation
DrRamchandraGalla
Chairman
JayadevGalla
ManagingDirector
Jan11
Jul10
Jan10
Jul09
Jan09
Jul08
Jul06
Auto
Replacement
36%
Jan06
Railwaysand
others
4%
AutoOEM
22%
Leadprices(US$/tonne)
Jul05
UPS
16%
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jan05
Telecom
22%
Jan08
AmaraRajarevenuebreakup
Jul07
The company is a JV
between Johnson Controls
and the Galla family
Jan07
Remarks/managementdescription
ElectricalengineerfromSVUniversity,Tirupati.Hasamastersdegreein
appliedelectronics(fromRoorkee,India)andsystemssciences(fromMichigan
StateUniversity,USA).
HasabachelorsdegreefromUniversityofIllinois.
Assumptions
Y/e31Mar
Volumegrowth(%)
Realisationchange(%)
Grossmargins
FY09A
FY10A
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
22.04
28.75
18.00
18.00
15.00
4.14
16.84
0.71
4.56
1.82
33.39
39.63
35.34
33.71
33.70
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
20
Totalcapacity
14.30
14.0
12.00
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
8.80
9.30
2009
2010
5.85
4.30
2.9
2.0
0.0
2006
2007
2008
2011
2012
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
21
However, capacity
constraints led Exide to
make price cuts in January
2011
Passengervehicles(LHS)
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
Commercialvehicles(RHS) (munits)
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
FY10 FY11ii FY12ii FY13ii
Source:SIAM,IIFLResearch
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
22
Also, the eastern part of the country, which is a stronghold for Exide
(since it is based in Kolkata), is weak in terms of distribution and is a
focus area for ARBL. It also plans to tie-up with new franchisees in
the north, west and south, as some of its current franchisees are
now constrained by credit and hence are unable to scale up the
business as well as ARBL would like them to. The new franchisees
would help ARBL penetrate deeper into the existing territories.
Johnson Controls gives ARBL the technology edge
Johnson Controls, which owns 26% in ARBL (in which it also holds
board seats), is the global leader in lead acid batteries for passenger
cars, light trucks and utility vehicles, in addition to being the leading
independent supplier of hybrid systems. ARBL has been a technology
leader in the Indian market, having introduced VRLA batteries for the
first time for industrial applications and two-wheelers. In the
automotive segment too, ARBL was the first to introduce batteries
with 5-year warranties. The tie-up with Johnson Controls gives ARBL
access to the latest battery technology. Furthermore, Johnsons
eminence in the hybrid space would be an asset for ARBL as and
when this technology picks up in India. The presence of Johnson
Controls also gives comfort on the various related-party transactions
that ARBL has with its sister companies, as Johnson Controls carries
out a quarterly internal audit.
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
23
ARBL made its entry into the industrial segment with batteries for
telecom towers. It was the first to introduce VRLA (valve-regulated
lead acid) batteries in the Indian market. The telecom segments
share of ARBLs revenue has fallen from 65% 18 months ago to 50%
now. We expect it to fall to 45% in FY11, given the slowdown in the
telecom segment and robust growth in the automotive segment.
ARBL makes three kinds of batteries for the industrial market: large
VRLA batteries that form essential infrastructure for telecom
companies and railways, etc; and medium VRLA batteries used in
UPSes.
Figure21:Mixoftheindustrialsegment
UPS
38%
Railwaysand
others
12%
Telecom
50%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Demand having bottomed
out, has started to pick up,
with an increase in capex
for 3G
24
84,000
73,000
65,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
55,000
50,000
40,000
33,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10ii
FY11ii
FY12ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
We expect margins to start
improving from 3QFY11
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
25
Figure23:Powerdeficitremainshigh
Powerdeficit(%)
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
Source:IIFLResearch
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
26
Advent of self-start vehicles is boosting a shift in the twowheeler segment: The advent of self-start two-wheelers has
boosted demand for high-quality batteries, which unorganised
manufacturers are unable to produce. This is driving a shift in the
replacement segment from unorganised manufacturers to the
organised segment.
Growth in sales of ungeared scooters has accelerated in the past
couple of years, as increased employment among women has
spurred demand for unisex vehicles. Sales of ungeared scooters have
risen at 33% annually in the last two yearsfaster than sales of
motorcycles. In motorcycles too, the mix has shifted from entry-level
models to the executive segment, in which most models have the
self-start feature and the premium segment, in which models with
higher cc engines and more features need better batteries.
Figure24:Salesofmotorcyclesandscootersaresetforcontinuedgrowth
(munits)
14.0
Motorcycles(LHS)
Scooters(RHS)
(munits)
3.5
12.0
3.0
10.0
2.5
8.0
2.0
6.0
1.5
4.0
1.0
2.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:SIAM,IIFLResearch
ABRL and Exide are
focussed on gaining market
share from the unorganised
segment
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
27
This results in higher scrap battery prices, and increases the price of
recycled lead. Globally, scrap batteries are sold at junk prices, and
hence recycled lead is significantly cheaper, and accounts for ~85%
of the battery industrys lead usage. In India, the share is
significantly lower, but with the two largest players focussed on
increasing their market share from the unorganised segment and
increasing use of recycled lead (Exide, for one, has recently acquired
two lead smelters), we reckon scrap-battery prices will fall in the
medium term, leading to a fall in prices of recycled lead.
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
28
Risks
Prices of lead, a key raw material, are volatile
Lead accounts for ~75% of ARBLs total cost of production and
~65% of its net sales. The company sources 1520% of its lead
from third-party smelters, 30% from domestic lead suppliers and
imports 55% of its lead requirement, largely from Australia and
Korea. Its imports are dollar-denominated and the company hedges
50% of its currency risk.
The company has built-in clauses in its contracts to pass through any
lead-price fluctuations to its OEM customers and large corporate
industrial customers. For auto OEM customers, increases in cost of
lead are passed on with a one-quarter lag. In sales to industrial retail
customers and replacement sales, on the other hand, the company
bears the raw-material risk. Lead prices have been very volatile in
the past few years, reaching a peak of US$3,890/tonne in October
2007 and then falling to below US$1,000/tonne in January 2009.
Figure25:Leadpricesareinacomfortablezoneforbatterymanufacturers
Leadprices(US$/tonne)
Jan05
Apr05
Jul05
Oct05
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source:Bloomberg,IIFLResearch
Figure26:Leadpricesandgrossmargins
QoQchangeinleadprices(LHS)
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
3Q07
1Q07
3Q06
1Q06
QoQchangeingrossmargins(RHS)
3Q05
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1Q05
1,000
800
600
400
200
(200)
(400)
(600)
(800)
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
29
Figure27:LeadpricesandEBITDAmargins
QoQchangeinleadprices(LHS)
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
3Q07
1Q07
3Q06
1Q06
3Q05
QoQchangeinEBITDAmargins(RHS)
1Q05
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1,000
800
600
400
200
(200)
(400)
(600)
(800)
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure28:LeadpriceandARBLstock
4,000
AmaraRajastockprice(RHS)
250
3,200
200
2,400
150
Leadprices(LHS)
1,600
800
100
50
0
0
Apr04 Feb05 Dec05 Nov06 Sep07 Jul08 Jun09 Apr10 Feb11
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
30
entry is brand franchise. Any new player would have to invest time
and money to make a mark in this segment.
Figure29:Thebatteryspacecouldgetverycompetitiveinthefuture;therearea
numberofplayerswhowanttoemergeasacrediblenumber3inthenext23years
Competitor
Segments
Comments
Two
wheelers,
four
wheelers
Stronginthetwowheelersegment.Marketleaderin
theOEMtwowheelerspace.Alsohasapresencein
thefourwheelerreplacementmarketforbatteries.
HBLPower
Industrial
HBLisaverycompetitiveplayerintheindustrial
batterysegment,especiallythetelecomsegment.The
companyplanstoentertheautomotivesegmentin
thenexttwoyears.
Minda
Two
wheelers,
four
wheelers
MindahastiedupwithItalianfirmFiammSpAtosell
batteriesinIndia.Thecompanyplanstoleverageon
itsautomotiverelationstogainafootholdinthe
market.
Four
wheelers
50:50JVwithGSYuasaInternational,whichstarted
productioninDecember2006.Currentlycateringonly
tothereplacementmarket.Oncetheplanned
capacityexpansioninDecember2008comeson
stream,theycouldstartsupplyingtoTataMotors,to
whichExideiscurrentlythesolesupplierforanumber
ofproducts.
AMCO
TataAutocomp
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
31
AmaraRaja
Source:Bloomberg,IIFLResearch
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
32
Appendix
Enterprising India 2 - Excerpts from IIFLs interview
with Jayadev Galla, MD, Amara Raja Batteries
Jayadev Galla
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
33
34
Financial summary
Incomestatementsummary(Rs m)
Revival in telecom
segment will boost
revenue in FY12
Y/e31Mar
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Interestexpense
Othersitems
Profitbeforetax
Taxexpense
NetProfit
FY09A
13,330
1,673
1,327
196
92
1,223
422
801
FY10A
14,730
2,991
2,561
68
53
2,546
876
1,670
FY11ii
16,973
2,414
1,979
46
68
2,002
681
1,321
FY12ii
20,939
2,979
2,423
46
75
2,453
834
1,619
FY13ii
24,521
3,570
2,935
36
83
2,982
1,014
1,968
FY09A
1,327
346
714
1,002
1,961
1,009
951
4
309
47
495
FY10A
2,561
430
410
423
2,158
504
1,654
0
310
80
1,869
FY11ii
1,979
435
841
487
1,086
1,150
64
0
0
290
331
FY12ii
2,423
556
681
882
1,416
1,150
266
0
0
232
64
FY13ii
2,935
636
834
794
1,942
1,150
792
0
0
284
555
FY09A
703
2,079
1,608
870
3,209
471
8,940
957
887
2,859
183
4,056
8,940
FY10A
625
2,423
2,176
1,087
3,284
161
9,756
1,390
1,801
912
216
5,436
9,756
FY11ii
293
2,790
2,706
1,196
4,000
161
11,146
1,818
1,674
912
216
6,526
11,146
FY12ii
157
3,442
3,423
1,316
4,594
161
13,093
2,296
2,008
712
216
7,861
13,093
FY13ii
513
4,031
4,009
1,447
5,108
161
15,269
2,687
2,370
512
216
9,483
15,269
FY09A
21.3
4.9
12.3
12.5
10.0
6.0
10.0
34.5
87.8
21.7
FY10A
10.5
78.8
93.0
20.3
17.4
11.3
17.4
34.4
28.3
35.2
FY11ii
15.2
19.3
22.7
14.2
11.7
7.8
17.5
34.0
18.5
22.1
FY12ii
23.4
23.4
22.4
14.2
11.6
7.7
17.6
34.0
11.1
22.5
FY13ii
17.1
19.8
21.1
14.6
12.0
8.0
17.6
34.0
10.8
22.7
Cashflowsummary(Rsm)
Capex to go up as the
company aggressively
expands capacity
Y/e31Mar
EBIT
Depreciation&Amortization
Taxpaid
Workingcapitalchange
OperatingCashflow
Capitalexpenditure
Freecashflow
Equityraised
Investments
Dividendspaid
NetchangeinCash&cashequivalents
Balancesheetsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Cash&cashequivalents
Sundrydebtors
TradeInventories
Othercurrentassets
Fixedassets
Otherassets
Totalassets
Sundrycreditors
Othercurrentliabilities
Longtermdebt/Convertibles
Otherlongtermliabilities
Networth
Totalliabilities&equity
Ratioanalysis
Higher exposure to
replacement market
will help EBITDA
margins
Y/e31Mar
Salesgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAgrowth(%)
CoreEBITgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAmargin(%)
CoreEBITmargin(%)
Netprofitmargin(%)
Dividendpayoutratio(%)
Taxrate(%)
NetDebt/Equity(%)
ReturnonEquity(%)
Source: Company data, IIFL Research
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
35
jatin.chawla@iiflcap.com
36
Rs228
CMP
Target12m
Rs280(23%)
Marketcap(US$m)
491
Bloomberg
BJEIN
Sector
Midcaps
14March2011
52WkHigh/Low(Rs)
347/188
Shareso/s(m)
99
Dailyvolume(US$m)
1
DividendyieldFY11ii(%)
1.0
Freefloat(%)
35.1
Shareholdingpattern(%)
ShekharBajaj&family
64.9
FIIs
8.3
DIIs
11.7
Others
15.1
Priceperformance(%)
1M
3M
BajajElectricals
0.1 14.1
10.3
Rel.toSensex
7.8
HavellsIndia
15.0
6.9
1Y
8.3
6.5 27.2
Volume(LHS)
Price(RHS)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
(Rs)
300
200
100
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
SangeethaSaranathan
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
912246464644
www.iiflcap.com
400
BUY
Kalpat.Power
16.6 34.8 46.5
Stockmovement
Shares(000')
Bajaj Electricals
Financialsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Revenues(Rsm)
EBITDAMargins(%)
PreExceptionalPAT(Rsm)
ReportedPAT(Rsm)
EPS(Rs)
Growth(%)
IIFLvsconsensus(%)
PER(x)
ROE(%)
Debt/Equity(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Price/Book(x)
FY09A
17,657
10.2
893
893
10.3
22.2
FY10A
22,286
10.9
1,304
1,254
13.4
29.3
FY11ii
27,241
9.5
1,468
1,468
15.1
12.6
1.4
FY12ii
32,657
10.4
1,937
1,937
19.9
31.9
2.2
FY13ii
38,810
10.5
2,358
2,358
24.2
21.7
0.6
22.1
36.5
0.7
12.6
8.0
17.1
26.4
0.2
9.3
4.5
15.1
23.7
0.1
8.7
3.6
11.5
24.7
0.0
6.6
2.8
9.4
24.0
0.1
5.6
2.3
Source:Company,IIFLResearch.Priceasatcloseofbusinesson11March2011.
37
37
Company snapshot
BJEspositioninitskeysegments
Segment Marketshare Rank
Appliances
15% No.1
Fans
17% No.2
CFLlamps
7% No.3
Lighting
8% No.3
Luminaires
17% No.2
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
FY10revenuemix
RevenuegrowthYoY%(LHS)
Engineering
&projects
33%
Appliances
26%
35%
EBITDAmargins(RHS)
12.0%
28%
10.0%
8.0%
21%
6.0%
Luminaires
12%
Fans
17%
Lighting
12%
14%
4.0%
7%
2.0%
0%
0.0%
FY05 FY06 FY07
Management
Name
ShekharBajaj
Designation
Chairman
Remarks/managementdescription
Joinedthecompanyin1980;activeroleinsettingcorporatestrategy
FormerHeadofSalesatAsianPaints;joinedBJEin1999;responsiblefortheconsumer
RRamakrishnan ExecutiveDirector
segment
AnantBajaj
ExecutiveDirector Responsiblefortheengineering&projectsdivision
Assumptions
Y/e31Mar(%)
Appliancesrevenuegrowth
Fansrevenuegrowth
Lightingrevenuegrowth
Luminairesrevenuegrowth
Engineering&projectsrevenuegrowth
FY09A
28
22
19
23
44
FY10A
25
27
25
2
41
FY11ii
25
25
22
25
18
FY12ii
23
22
20
10
20
FY13ii
20
20
20
10
20
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
38
Figure31: Bajajisthelargestplayerinthedomesticappliancemarket
Appliancesmarket
BajajElectricals
11%
Unorganised
30%
Otherorganised
41%
Bajajhasmaintaineditsleadingmarketsharepresenceinthe
appliancessegmentbyconstantinnovation
Pigeon
6%
Preethi
4%
Kenstar
4%
Philips
4%
Appliancesrevenuegrowth(YoY)
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
39
Fansmarket
Usha
10%
Orient
10%
Fansrevenueshavegrownconsistentlyat>25%YoYinboth
midtierandpremiumsegments
Fansrevenuegrowth(YoY)
Otherorganised
17%
30.0%
Bajajelectricals
10%
Crompton
15%
40.0%
20.0%
Unorganised
38%
10.0%
0.0%
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Through acquisition of
Starlite, BJE entered the
high-growth CFL market
Lighting: CFL is the way to grow
BJE has had a presence in lighting for many decades, through GLS
lamps, fluorescent tube-lights, domestic luminaires and ballasts &
starters. To tap the growing market for energy-efficient lighting, the
company entered the CFL segment, through the acquisition of a 32%
stake in Starlite Lighting Ltd (which has a CFL manufacturing unit).
The company estimates the CFL market at ~Rs20bn and the rest of
the lighting market at Rs36bn. BJE has maintained a leading
presence in this market with its entry into the CFL market, and is
well-poised to benefit from strong growth in this market.
BJEs revenues from this segment grew at 25% annually during
FY06-10, and we estimate a 20% CAGR over the next three years,
driven by: a) strong growth in CFLs; b) expansion of distribution
both to kirana stores and modern retail formats; and c) rural
electrification and increase in power availability in remote areas.
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
40
Figure33: BJEhasastrongpresencebothinCFLsandgenerallamps
CFLs
Restoflighting
Player
Marketshare Player
Marketshare
withinthe
withinthe
organisedsegment
organisedsegment
Philips
20% Philips
26%
Surya
8% Surya
12%
Bajajelectricals
7% BajajElectricals
8%
Oreva
6% Crompton
5%
Havells
6%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Thanks to a large
distribution reach, BJE will
benefit the most from semiurban and rural growth
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
41
Figure35: Mostoftheproductsareoutsourcedfromdedicatedvendors,inthe
consumercategory
Appliances
VendorsinHimachal,NoidaandimportsfromChina
Fans
OwnfactoryatChakan
VendorsinHyderabad,Himachal,importsfromChina
CFLlamps
OwnfactoryofassociatecompanyStarlite,Nasik
Electricallamps,tubes
OwnfactoryofassociatecompanyHindLamps,UP
Luminaires
VendorsinDaman,Himachal,importsfromChina
Highmasts,poles,towers OwnfactoryatRanjangaonandChakan
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Consumer segment: Inorganic growth will not increase
leverage significantly
Management indicated that it would likely pursue inorganic growth
by:
(a) buying brands (rather than manufacturing facilities) in the
consumer appliance space. The company will consider buying
brands that have strong penetration in geographies where BJEs
brands are weak, or brands that could allow BJE to enter new
product categories, complementary to its existing product suite;
and
(b) acquiring companies with technological know-how/contracting
experience in the engineering & projects segment.
The company has no plans to make large acquisitions (that is, with
annual revenue of over Rs1bn). Given its comfortable gearing
position (net debt/equity of 0.2x), the company will not need to raise
any equity for these acquisitions. If the acquisitions were to be
funded entirely by debt (assuming acquisition consideration of 1215x PE), net debt/equity will rise to only about ~0.4x.
Figure36: Evenifinorganicgrowth(estimatedatRs1bn)isfundedentirelybydebt,
leveragewillincreasetoonly~0.4x
Netdebt/equity
Acquisitions unlikely to
increase leverage
materially
Netdebt/equity(inclacqnest)
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
42
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Industrial capex by power
companies also a key driver
of growth
The E&P segments revenues grew at 32% annually during FY06-10.
Growth was driven mainly by the transmission tower segment, owing
to rapid expansion by telecom companies, and power capacities. The
company currently has a Rs1.8bn order book, and is well-placed for
orders worth Rs1.25bn. Coupled with the 14-18 month average
gestation period for projects gives us visibility for ~20% YoY revenue
growth in this segment during the next year.
Figure38:Orderbookdominatedbytransmissiontowersandgovtinfraschemes
Special
projects
47%
Highmasts
11%
Towers
42%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
43
(%ofrevenues)
Marginsrecoveredaftertheone
offslumpin2QFY11
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jun09
Sep09
Dec09
Mar10
Jun10
Sep10
Dec10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
44
BJE has also entered into a tie-up with Securiton of Switzerland for
fire-alarm and security systems, and with Delta Controls for HVAC
controls, access and building management systems (BMS). This
enables the company to offer integrated BMSes, which is targeted
mainly at new IT, BPO and retailing projects.
A slump in industrial activity caused this segments revenues to fall
by 2.5% YoY during FY10. According to the management, order flow
has since revived (1QFY11 revenues from luminaires were up 78%
YoY). We estimate this segments revenue growth at ~15% annually
over the next three years as it trends towards historical growth rates
(revenues registered 21% CAGR during FY06-09).
Figure41: TechnicalexcellencethroughtieupswithgloballeaderssupportBJEs
leadershipinluminaires
Luminairesmarket
Unorganised
40%
Other
organised
23%
Philips
14%
Bajaj
electricals
10%
Crompton
8%
Wipro
5%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
45
(US$/tonne)
3,000
(US$/tonne)
Aluminium(LHS)
2,500
12,000
10,000
8,000
2,000
6,000
1,500
Copper(RHS)
1,000
4,000
2,000
500
0
Jan07
Mar07
May07
Aug07
Oct07
Dec07
Feb08
May08
Jul08
Sep08
Dec08
Feb09
Apr09
Jul09
Sep09
Nov09
Jan10
Apr10
Jun10
Aug10
Nov10
Jan11
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Rational competitive
environment and strong
brand should help BJE pass
on cost increases in a
staggered fashion
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
46
At mid-cycle levels of
previous downturn, margins
could compress a further
100bps from our estimates
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
47
Appendix
Enterprising India 2: Excerpts from IIFLs interview
with
Shekhar
Bajaj,
Chairman
&
MD;
Ramakrishnan, ED; and Anant Bajaj, ED; Bajaj
Electricals
Shekhar Bajaj
When India opened its markets in the early part of this decade in
deference to WTO norms, Shekhar Bajaj was one of the first to
identify value in importing good quality products at an affordable
price for the Indian consumer. He found significant value in retaining
the marketing company business model of Bajaj Electricals for all
such products where there wasnt much high-tech know-how
involved. He finds outsourcing sensible since Indian entrepreneurs
maintain strong control over costs and importing from places like
China offer scale efficiencies. Thanks to this, Bajaj Electricals has
been a pioneer in offering quality at an affordable price to Indian
consumers.
Bajaj Electricals is a fairly old company, established in the
1930s, but has seen meaningful growth only in the last
decade or so. What were the key growth drivers?
Shekhar Bajaj: The market for consumer durables opened up only
after 2000, when India had to allow imports of consumer products as
per the new WTO rules. Bajaj Electricals was also the very first
company to use this opportunity; we explored the option of
importing goods from China, where they have greater scale
advantages. We also brought foreign brands to India, including
Morphy Richards.
Ramakrishnan
Anant Bajaj
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
48
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
49
Financial summary
Incomestatementsummary(Rsm)
Revenue growth during
FY12 to be driven equally
by consumer and
engineering segments
Y/e31Mar
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Interestexpense
Others
Profitbeforetax
Taxes
Extraordinaryitems
Netprofit
FY09A
17,657
1,798
1,713
370
57
1,400
507
0
893
FY10A
22,286
2,434
2,343
314
29
2,057
754
50
1,254
FY11ii
27,241
2,591
2,490
324
25
2,191
723
0
1,468
FY12ii
32,657
3,410
3,301
449
39
2,891
954
0
1,937
FY13ii
38,810
4,057
3,938
474
55
3,519
1,161
0
2,358
FY09A
1,713
85
542
55
99
1,411
148
1,263
0
92
228
161
562
219
FY10A
2,343
91
912
1,564
55
14
147
133
1,634
50
620
201
504
125
FY11ii
2,490
100
723
674
0
1,194
150
1,044
0
0
319
220
299
205
FY12ii
3,301
109
954
1,054
0
1,402
180
1,222
0
0
204
291
411
725
FY13ii
3,938
118
1,161
1,085
0
1,811
180
1,631
0
0
77
354
419
935
FY09A
538
5,592
1,777
1,131
971
316
10,324
908
5,704
1,261
2,450
10,324
FY10A
612
7,507
2,094
1,777
1,017
366
13,373
574
6,911
945
4,944
13,373
FY11ii
817
9,031
2,586
1,642
1,066
366
15,507
319
8,117
881
6,192
15,507
FY12ii
1,542
11,094
2,934
1,789
1,137
366
18,863
482
9,622
922
7,838
18,863
FY13ii
2,477
13,291
3,408
2,127
1,199
366
22,867
544
11,545
937
9,842
22,867
FY09A
28.5
25.6
26.1
10.2
9.7
5.1
36.2
65.3
36.5
8.7
FY10A
26.2
35.3
36.8
10.9
10.5
5.6
36.6
18.3
26.4
9.4
FY11ii
22.2
6.4
6.3
9.5
9.1
5.4
33.0
6.2
23.7
9.5
FY12ii
19.9
31.6
32.6
10.4
10.1
5.9
33.0
1.8
24.7
10.3
FY13ii
18.8
19.0
19.3
10.5
10.1
6.1
33.0
10.1
24.0
10.3
Cashflowsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
EBIT
Depreciation&Amortization
Taxpaid
Workingcapitalchange
Otheroperatingitems
OperatingCashflow
Capitalexpenditure
Freecashflow
Equityraised
Investments
Debtfinancing/disposal
Dividendspaid
Otheritems
NetchangeinCash&cashequivalents
Balancesheetsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Cash&cashequivalents
Sundrydebtors
TradeInventories
Othercurrentassets
Fixedassets
Otherassets
Totalassets
Shorttermdebt
Sundrycreditors
Longtermdebt
Networth
Totalliabilitiesandequity
Ratioanalysis
Y/e31Mar
Salesgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAgrowth(%)
CoreEBITgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAmargin(%)
CoreEBITmargin(%)
Netprofitmargin(%)
Taxrate(%)
NetDebt/Equity(%)
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
sangeetha@iiflcap.com
50
Rs660
CMP
BUY
Rs1,050(59%)
Target12m
Marketcap(US$m)
534
Bloomberg
Sector
BAFIN
FinancialServices
14March2011
52WkHigh/Low(Rs)
839/295
Shareso/s(m)
37
Dailyvolume(US$m)
1
DividendyieldFY11ii(%)
2.4
Freefloat(%)
44.5
Shareholdingpattern(%)
BajajFinServ
55.5
FIIs
6.1
DIIs
12.9
Others
25.5
Priceperformance(%)
1M
BajajFinanceLtd 9.9
Rel.toSensex
7.4
M&MFin
Stockmovement
Shares(000')
4.5
2.8 105.1
9.6
4.7 81.0
Volume(LHS)
Price(RHS)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
SampathKumar
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
+912246464665
SrinivasanR
srinivasan.r@iiflcap.com
+912246464652
www.iiflcap.com
Niche player in financial services: Consumer finance and smallbusiness loans continue to be undertapped segments, largely
because access to finance has been a constraint. This is evidenced
by the declining share of bank financing to these segments over
time, while aggregate loans of banks continue to grow at a rapid clip.
We believe BFL is well-positioned to capitalise on this opportunity,
with an established distribution network, strong parentage, and an
experienced management. We forecast a CAGR of 47% and 70% in
BFLs loans and earnings, respectively, driven by the market
opportunity and BFLs well-established position in its key businesses.
(Rs)
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
3M
1Y
4.1 111.0
Financialsummary(Rs m)
Y/e31Mar
Preprov.operatinginc.(Rsm)
Netprofit(Rsm)
EPS(Rs)
Growth(%)
IIFLvsconsensus(%)
PER(x)
Bookvalue(Rs)
PB(x)
CAR(%)
ROA(%)
ROE(%)
Dividendyield(%)
FY09A
2,146
339
9.3
68.6
71.2
297
2.2
38.4
1.0
3.2
0.3
FY10A
3,949
894
24.4
163.6
27.0
315
2.1
26.0
2.3
8.0
0.9
FY11ii
5,941
2,348
64.1
162.6
1.3
10.3
360
1.8
15.3
3.4
19.0
2.4
FY12ii
7,477
3,299
90.1
40.5
8.4
7.3
424
1.6
14.0
3.3
23.0
3.4
FY13ii
9,803
4,373
119.5
32.6
5.1
5.5
509
1.3
13.3
3.4
25.6
4.5
Source:Company,IIFLResearch.Priceasatcloseofbusinesson11March2011.
51
51
Company snapshot
Bajaj Finance Ltd (BFL) provides financing for two-wheelers,
consumer durables, housing, and small businesses. The company
has also recently begun financing construction equipment, and plans
to gradually scale up this business.
BFL undertook business and organisational restructuring in FY08 and
identified small business loans and consumer financing as key
niches. While the legacy problems in BFLs 2-wheeler and consumerdurable financing portfolios continued to adversely affect financial
performance, new initiatives began delivering tangible results in
FY10, with 164% net profit growth. BFL further built on this
performance with strong 113% and 174% growth in disbursements
and profits, respectively, in 9MFY11.
Background
Bajaj Finance Ltd (BFL), formerly known as Bajaj Auto Finance, was
incorporated in March 1987. BFL was promoted by the erstwhile
Bajaj Auto Ltd and Bajaj Auto Holdings Ltd. BFL was subsequently
listed in 1994. When the Bajaj Group was restructured in 2008, the
shareholding of Bajaj Auto Limited in BFL was transferred to Bajaj
FinServ Ltd. As of September 2010, the company was renamed from
Bajaj Auto Finance Ltd to Bajaj Finance Ltd.
BFL is present across 375 Bajaj Auto dealerships and over 2,000
consumer-durable outlets across the country. Small business lending
is carried out through 63 branches spread across 16 cities.
Deploymentmix3QFY11
Small
business
11%
SalesFinance
27%
Mortgages
17%
Deployments
Rs27.7bn
2&3
wheelers
21%
Others
17%
Construction
equipment
7%
Returnonequity
30.0
25.6
(%)
25.0
23.0
19.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
8.0
2.0
3.2
0.0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Management
Name
Designation Remarks/managementdescription
RajeevJain
CEO
PankajThadaniCFO
Hasover18yearsofexperienceintheconsumerlendingindustry,havingworkedinthepastwith
AIG,GeneralElectricandAmericanExpress.
Hasover28yearsofexperience,havingpreviouslyworkedinBajajAutoLimited,Eicher,Mico
BoschandCorporateDatabase.
Assumptions
Y/e31Mar
FY09A
FY10A
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Disbursementgrowth(%)
19.3
87.1
98.1
24.0
23.6
NewNPLaccrualrate(%)
5.3
1.4
2.5
1.7
1.5
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
52
Consumerdurables (LHS)
Smallbusiness(RHS)
(%)
16
14
12
0.5
10
8
6
0.3
4
2
0.0
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source:RBI,IIFLResearch
Figure44:Bankingsectorloanstosmallbusinesshavebeengrowingatbelowthe
systemgrowthrate
(Rsbn)
3,000
Loansoutstanding (LHS)
YoYgrowth(RHS)
(%)
35
30
25
2,000
20
15
1,000
10
5
0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
Source:RBI,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
53
Figure45:Bankingsectorloansforconsumerdurablepurchaseshaveremained
stagnantovertheyears
Loansoutstanding (LHS)
(Rsbn)
100
YoYgrowth(RHS)
(%)
50
40
80
30
20
60
10
40
0
(10)
20
(20)
(30)
0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
Source:RBI,IIFLResearch
Low consumer lending
penetration provides large
growth opportunity
Figure46:Consumerloans/GDPratiocrosscountrycomparison
(%)
120
105
100
100
92
80
60
60
52
40
22
15
20
0
Japan
UK
US
Singapore
Korea
Thailand
India
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Low competitive intensity
allowed BFL time to
diversify its loan book
Figure47:Productevolution
PreFY08
Twoandthree
wheelers
Salesfinance
FY08
Smallbusiness
loans
FY09
Personalloans
Loanagainst
property
FY11
Construction
equipment
Loanagainst
securities
FY12
Cobranded
creditcards
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
54
Focus on improving
customer value proposition
Customer
inquires
aboutaCD
loan
BFLpersonnelat
theshop
logsonto
salesforce.com
andfillsoutthe
onlineform
Isanexisting
customer?
Yes
No
Hasapan
card/creditcard?
Yes
No
Requestforfurther
documentation
inordertoperforma
comprehensivecreditcheck
Checkinternal
records
Yes
Loanapproved?
No
CheckCIBIL
Collectone
cheque
from
customerand
processother
paperwork
Informcustomer
about
rejection
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
55
Figure49:Organisationchart
Nanoo Pamnani
ViceChairman
RajeevJain
CEO
Devang Mody
Head SalesFinance
AmitGainda
Head Loanagainst
Property
DeepakReddy
Head Personal&
SmallBusinessLoans
Sanjeev Vij
Head Construction
EquipmentFinance
Vivek RLikhite
Head Loanagainst
Securities
Rakesh Bhatt
ChiefInformation
Officer
RajeshK
ChiefRiskOfficer
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
56
Figure50:Expecteddeploymentmix
(%)
2wheelers
Consumerdurables
100
80
Mortgage
31
31
32
15
14
14
24
25
25
30
23
22
21
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
CE
26
60
21
40
23
20
Smallbusiness
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
We estimate 25% CAGR in
disbursements over FY1113ii
Figure51:Deploymentssettogrowatarapidpace
(Rsbn)
160
Deployments (LHS)
(%)
120
YoYgrowth(RHS)
100
120
80
60
80
40
20
40
0
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure52:Receivablesunderfinancemix
(%)
100
80
2wheelers
Consumerdurables
7
Smallbusiness
Mortgage
10
39
39
39
19
17
16
11
12
13
23
23
22
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
CE
29
60
25
40
11
20
34
0
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
57
Figure53:Weforecast49%CAGR(FY10FY13ii)inreceivablesunderfinance
(Rsbn)
180
Receivablesunderfinance (LHS)
YoYgrowth(RHS)
134
140
100
80
105
100
(%)
120
60
81
40
60
40
20
20
0
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Competition likely to
intensify as banks risk
appetite returns
Productsoffered
Twowheeler
loan
Minimumloansize(Rs)
Consumerdurable
loan
Personal
loan
7,500
20,000
50,000
500,000
2,000,000
Averageloansize(Rs)
37,000
20,000
50,000
Maximumdurationof
loan(months)
24
1248
Keycompetitors
Allbanks,leadby
HDFCBank
Allbanksthrough
creditcards,SCUF
Allbanks
Maximumloansize(Rs)
Source:IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
58
Figure55:Keyproductfeaturesandcompetitionlandscapeforsmallbusinessloans
Businessloans
Productsoffered
Smallbusiness
loans
Loanagainst
property
Construction
equipment
financing
Minimumloansize(Rs)
300,000
2,000,000
Maximumloansize(Rs)
3,000,000
125,000,000
500,000,000
Averageloansize(Rs)
1,700,000
14,000,000
Maximumdurationofloan
(months)
1236
180
48
Keycompetitors
Allbanks(primarily
HDFCBank,SCB,
Kotak),SCUF
Allbanks,IndiaBulls
Financials,SCUF
Allbanks,
SREIFinance
Source:IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
59
Improvement in operating
efficiencies and asset
quality are key re-rating
factors
The key issue for NBFCs such as BFL is achieving higher economies
of scale while keeping operating costs and credit quality under
check. Although BFL is a significant player in its niche, it is
disadvantaged by lack of scale. Furthermore, it is yet to be tested on
its asset quality performance over a longer time horizon and on a
larger scale. We believe BFLs stock will see a re-rating if the
company were to establish strong performance metrics (operating
efficiency and asset quality) with larger scale over the medium term.
Figure56:AssetbasecomparedtootherNBFCs
400
350
(Rsbn)
338
350
SHTF
IDFC
300
250
200
134
150
100
65
69
71
MGFL
BFL
SCUF
50
0
MMFS
Source:Company,IIFLResearch;MGFLMannapuramFinance,SCUFShriramCityUnion
Finance,MMFSM&MFinancial,SHTFShriramTransportFinance;
De-layering organisation
and increasing cross-selling
to drive efficiency in
consumer lending
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
60
Figure57:Operatingexpensesasproportionofaverageassets
10.0
(%)
8.0
8.0
6.6
6.3
6.0
5.5
5.1
4.2
4.6
FY05
FY06
5.4
4.5
4.0
2.0
0.0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
80
36
Consumerfinance
Personal&smallbusiness
5
26
46
60
39
39
40
15
14
14
24
25
25
30
23
22
21
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
21
24
40
60
20
Othersecured
49
0
FY06
FY08
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
61
Figure59:Assetqualitytrend
(%)
GrossNPA
20.0
16.0
12.0
NetNPA
NPLsspikedasloanbook
declinedandNPLsfrom
legacyassetspeaked
8.0
4.0
0.0
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
1stBucket
Figure61:Twowheelerdelinquencies
(%)
35.00
Collections
90.80%
15.00
1stBucket
70.30%
Collections
30.00
25.00
10.00
20.00
79.00%
15.00
5.00
95.00%
97.80%
98.30%
83.50%
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Dec09
Apr10
May10
Jun10
July10
Apr08
Apr09
Jun09
Aug09
Oct09
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure62:Personal&smallbusinessloandelinquencies
Figure63:Loanagainstpropertydelinquencies
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
99.90%
Nov2010
Dec2010
Nov10
Dec10
Oct10
Aug10
Sep10
July10
May10
Jun10
Apr10
Oct09
Dec09
Aug09
Apr09
Jun09
Apr08
0.00
Aug2010
Sep2010
98.50%
July2010
98.50%
0.50
99.90%
May2010
Jun2010
98.40%
1.00
Collections
99.40%
Apr2010
97.40%
99.40%
Oct2009
Dec2009
1.50
1stBucket
Aug2009
2.00
(%)
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Apr2009
Jun2009
Collections
1stBucket
Apr2008
(%)
2.50
Oct2010
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Dec09
Apr10
May10
Jun10
July10
0.00
Apr08
Apr09
Jun09
Aug09
Oct09
0.00
81.20%
10.00
5.00
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
62
(%)
25
Yieldonadvance
20
NIM
15
10
Costoffunds
5
0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
31% operating cost CAGR
and 33% revenue CAGR
over FY10-13ii
200bps improvement in
cost-income ratios over
FY10-13ii
Cost/income to moderate
BFL has been aggressively investing in building its presence across
consumer retailing chains for consumer-durables financing, and in
the top 16 cities for small-business lending. As such, the company
will see only limited geographical expansion from hereon, primarily
in small-business lending. Furthermore, commissions paid to direct
marketing agents (DMA) and staff for sourcing loans is broadly inline with loan processing fees charged to customers, and this
arrangement provides for variable payouts. This, we believe, should
enable BFL to keep cost growth under check, although the company
is set to witness robust growth in disbursements. We expect
operating costs to register 31% CAGR over FY10-13ii, with total
income growing at 33% annually over the same period. Thus, we
expect the cost/income ratio to improve by over 200bps to 41.4% by
FY13ii.
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
63
Figure65:Trendincost/incomeratio
65.0
56.7
(%)
55.0
49.4
46.8
45.3
43.7
45.0
42.8
42.5
41.4
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
37.2
35.0
25.0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Normalisation in credit
costs to provide additional
kicker to earnings growth
8.1
8.0
6.3
6.0
3.9
4.0
3.5
4.0
2.6
2.8
2.8
FY12ii
FY13ii
1.8
2.0
0.0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
64
Figure67:RoAtoimproveowingtooperatingleverageandfallingprovisioncharges
5.0
4.0
4.7
(%)
3.4
3.0
2.1
2.0
3.3
3.4
2.3
1.6
1.0
0.5
1.0
FY08
FY09
0.0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure68:RoEtoimproveduetoincreaseinRoAandleverage
35.0
(%)
30.0
25.0
23.0
21.9
25.6
19.0
20.0
15.0
9.9
10.0
8.0
6.4
2.0
5.0
3.2
0.0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Strong and sustainable
earnings growth to drive up
ROE through FY13
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
65
Figure69:BFLsP/B
2.5
(x)
2.0
1.5
1.0
AverageforwardPB1.1x
0.5
0.0
Mar06
Mar07
Mar08
Mar09
Mar10
Mar11
Source:Bloomberg,IIFLResearch
Figure70:Peercomparison
Company
BajajFinance
M&MFinancial
ShriramCityUnion
ShriramTransport
P/E
10.3
13.9
10.5
14.1
FY11ii
P/B RoE(%) P/E
1.8
19.0 7.4
2.7
23.2 11.2
2.1
21.3 8.0
3.6
28.5 11.8
FY12ii
EPSCAGR
P/B RoE(%) FY10FY13ii
1.6
23.0
69.7
2.3
22.6
25.6
1.7
23.1
27.4
2.8
26.7
27.3
Source:Bloomberg,IIFLResearch
Asset quality, interest rate
and regulatory changes are
risks to BFLs valuation
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
66
Financial summary
Incomestatementsummary(Rs m)
Y/e31Mar
Netinterestincome
Others
Noninterestincome
Totaloperatingincome
Totaloperatingexpenses
Preprovisionoperatingprofit
Provisionsforloanlosses
Profitbeforetax
Taxes
Netprofit
FY09A
4,139
212
212
4,350
2,204
2,146
1,636
510
171
339
FY10A
6,545
600
600
7,145
3,196
3,949
2,606
1,343
449
894
FY11ii
9,900
660
660
10,560
4,619
5,941
2,422
3,520
1,172
2,348
FY12ii
12,088
1,113
1,113
13,201
5,724
7,477
2,553
4,924
1,625
3,299
FY13ii
15,092
1,860
1,860
16,952
7,149
9,803
3,277
6,526
2,154
4,373
FY09A
26,075
418
2,739
29,456
202
506
30,164
16,114
16,114
3,162
19,276
10,887
30,164
FY10A
43,539
225
3,018
47,029
505
692
48,226
32,268
32,268
4,433
36,700
11,525
48,226
FY11ii
84,935
498
1,660
87,414
732
692
88,838
69,698
69,698
5,953
75,651
13,186
88,838
FY12ii
109,787
506
1,826
112,535
878
692
114,106
90,956
90,956
7,629
98,585
15,520
114,106
FY13ii
139,337
422
2,009
142,309
1,053
692
144,055
115,650
115,650
9,791
125,441
18,614
144,055
FY09A
FY10A
67.0
59.9
18.6
2.3
8.0
8.4
163.6
163.6
44.7
31.1
FY11ii
95.1
84.2
15.7
3.4
19.0
6.3
162.6
162.6
43.7
30.1
FY12ii
FY13ii
29.3
28.4
26.9
26.2
12.7
3.3
23.0
5.5
40.5
40.5
12.4
3.4
25.6
4.7
32.6
32.6
43.4
30.4
42.2
30.4
FY10A
7.9
55.0
8.1
3.6
26.0
26.0
FY11ii
5.0
43.4
4.0
2.8
15.3
15.3
FY12ii
FY13ii
4.6
36.7
2.8
2.9
3.9
34.0
2.8
2.6
14.0
14.0
13.3
13.3
Balancesheetsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Netloans&advances
Cash&equivalents
Otherinterestearningassets
Totalinterestearningassets
Fixedassets
Otherassets
Totalassets
Otherinterestbearingliabilities
Totalinterestbearingliabilities
Noninterestbearingliabilities
Totalliabilities
TotalShareholder'sequity
Totalliabilities&equity
RatioanalysisI
Y/e31Mar
BalanceSheetStructureRatios(%)
LoanGrowth
GrowthinTotalAssets(%)
ProfitabilityRatios
NetInterestMargin
ReturnonAverageAssets
ReturnonAverageEquity
NonInterestIncomeas%ofTotal
NetProfitGrowth
FDEPSGrowth
EfficiencyRatios(%)
CosttoIncomeRatio
Salariesas%ofNonInterestcosts
19.9
21.6
13.7
1.0
3.2
4.9
68.6
68.6
50.7
33.1
RatioanalysisII
Y/e31Mar
CreditQualityRatios(%)
GrossNPLsas%ofloans
NPLcoverageratio
Totalprovisionchargesas%avgloans
NetNPLsas%ofnetloans
CapitalAdequacyRatios(%)
TotalCAR
TierIcapitalratio
FY09A
17.6
32.1
6.3
11.9
38.4
38.4
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
67
sampath.kumar@iiflcap.com
68
Rs357
CMP
Rs490(37%)
Target12m
Marketcap(US$m)
1,197
Bloomberg
HMNIN
Sector
FMCG
14March2011
52WkHigh/Low(Rs)
519/267
Shareso/s(m)
151
Dailyvolume(US$m)
2
DividendyieldFY11ii(%)
1.3
Freefloat(%)
24.0
Shareholdingpattern(%)
Agrawals,Goenka+
72.7
FIIs
14.8
DIIs
3.4
Others
9.1
Priceperformance(%)
1M
3M
1Y
Emami
8.5
0.8
17.8
11.0
7.6
12.0
Colgate
2.6
0.7
16.9
Dabur
5.4
0.2
13.8
Marico
13.7
10.6
23.7
Rel.toSensex
Volume(LHS)
Price(RHS)
Stockmovement
Shares(000')
BUY
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Emami
(Rs)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
www.iiflcap.com
Source:Company,IIFLResearch.Priceasatcloseofbusinesson11March2011.
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Financialsummary(Rs m)
Y/e31Mar
Revenues(Rsm)
EBITDAMargins(%)
PreExceptionalPAT(Rsm)
ReportedPAT(Rsm)
Adj.EPS(Rs)
Growth(%)
IIFLvsconsensus(%)
PER(x)
ROE(%)
Debt/Equity(x)
Price/Book(x)
ArnabMitra
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
912246464661
FY09A
7,489
17.2
820
820
6.2
13.4
FY10A
10,217
24.1
798
676
5.3
15.6
58.6
27.9
1.5
16.0
69.4
17.2
0.4
8.9
FY11ii
12,241
21.6
2,337
2,337
15.4
192.9
0.8
23.7
33.3
0.1
7.1
FY12ii
14,486
22.9
2,957
2,957
19.5
26.6
0.4
18.7
33.9
0.1
5.7
FY13ii
17,001
24.1
3,416
3,418
22.6
15.5
1.4
16.2
31.9
0.0
4.7
69
69
Emami BUY
Company snapshot
Emami operates mainly in
niche segments which have
low competitive intensity
Painbalms
23%
Others
17%
Antisepticcreams
15%
Talcumpowder
4%
Men'sfairness
9%
Internationalbusiness
14%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Emamiskeybrands
Keycategory
Brand
Coolingoil
Comments
Navratna
Antisepticcream BoroPlus
Mensfairness
creams
FairAndHandsome
Painbalm
Zandu,MenthoPlus
x
x
x
x
Revenueshareofc50%intheRs5.8bncategory
CAGRof14%overFY0510
LargeplayerslikeDaburandMaricofailedtosuccessfullyenterthissegment
Fastestgrowingsegmentinhairoils,growingatover20%inthepastthreeyears
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
RevenueCAGRof18%overthelastfiveyears
ThirdlargestskincarebrandinIndia
Increasedmarketsharefrom64%to75%overthelastfiveyearsinborocreams
Thisbrand,launchedin2005,wasthefirstfairnesscreamtargetedatmen
CrossedRs1bninrevenuesinFY11,60%marketshare
RevenueCAGRof21%overthelastfiveyearsinMenthoPlus
AcquiredZanduin2008.Thebrandhasgrownc25%inFY11
Holds65%shareinthiscategory,theonlynationalplayer
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Background
The Emami Group was co-founded by two childhood friends, RS
Agarwal and RS Goenka in 1974. From the beginning, the company
launched differentiated products from the established brands.
Outside the listed entity Emami Ltd, the group now has a presence in
newsprint, healthcare, refined edible oil and real estate, and is likely
to enter the cement business in the near future.
Assumptions
Y/e31Mar
FY09A
FY10A
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Coolingoils(YoYgrowth)
5%
12%
16%
16%
16%
Painbalms(YoYgrowth)
2%
6%
20%
14%
14%
Winterskincreams(YoYgrowth)
11%
18%
12%
18%
15%
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
70
Emami BUY
HUL
Britannia
3yearsalesCAGR
Colgate
HUL
Britannia
Dabur
Dabur
GSKConsumer
Marico
Nestle
GSKConsumer
Colgate
Nestle
Emami
Emami
Marico
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
30%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Source:Industry,IIFLResearch
3yearEPSCAGR
100%
Ruralpenetration(%)
75%
50%
Soft
Drinks
Choco
lates
Milk
powder
Skin
cream
Talcum
Balms
Shampoo
Tooth
Paste
Toilet
Soap
0%
Deter
gents
25%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Cooling oils is one of the
fastest growing categories
with revenue CAGR of 28%
over three years
On the other hand, cooling hair oil, which accounts for 25% of the
companys sales, is a completely new category that was pioneered
by Emami itself over the past decade. Thus, there is a large segment
of consumers who are yet to even try the product. The product has
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
71
Emami BUY
Figure74: Emamihasdominantmarketshareinnichecategories
Emami'smarketshare(%)
100%
74%
80%
60%
60%
64%
Men'sfairness
Painbalm
50%
40%
20%
0%
Coolingoils
Borocreams
Source:IIFLResearch.Note:BalmsmarketshareincludesZandu
Even large Indian
companies do not directly
compete with Emami in
most categories
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
72
Emami BUY
Navratna Oil
(18% of sales)
Source:Company
Figure75: CoolingoilshasbeenoneofthefastestgrowingFMCGcategoriesinthepastthreeyears
Coolingoilsales(Rsm)
6,000
Coolingoilvolumesales(klitres)
14,000
CAGR:21%
CAGR:28%
12,000
5,000
10,000
4,000
8,000
3,000
6,000
2,000
4,000
1,000
2,000
0
FY07
FY08
Source:Industry,IIFLResearch
Emamis competitors in
cooling oils are regional
players
FY09
FY10
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
73
Emami BUY
Figure76: Emamiisthemarketleaderincoolinghairoils,withac50%share
Marketshareincoolinghairoil(FY08)
Banphool
Himtaj
10%
5%
Himgange
24%
Emami
50%
RahatRooh
9%
Others
2%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Emami has launched
variants to take on
Hemgange, a strong local
player in North India
Boro Plus
(15% of sales)
Source:Company
Source:Company
Boro Plus has been gaining share in the Rs1.9bn antiseptic boro
brand market. Boro Plus has a market share of 75%. Competitors
such as Boroline (GD Pharmaceuticals), which was a dominant leader
in the category till the 1990s, and Borosoft (Paras Pharmaceuticals)
have lost share, as they could not match Emamis advertising
investments.
The boro creams category has seen stable double-digit revenue
growth over the past three years. The skin-care category is seeing
c20% revenue growth driven by low penetration of 24% and very
high growth in the top-end segment, as aspirations continue to rise
among Indian consumers. We expect Boro Pluss revenues to grow
in-line with the markets growth rate of 15-20%. Brand extensions,
especially in the fast-expanding body-lotions category, will aid this
growth.
Growth driver # 3: Fair and Handsomeearly-mover
advantage
Emami established itself within Indias Rs20bn fairness-cream
market in 2006 through the innovative launch of a fairness cream
targeted at men. Marketers have long known that there is a market
for fairness creams targeted at men: market research showed that
30% of the fairness creams sold in India was actually used by men,
as there were no separate fairness creams positioned for them.
Emami was one of the first to spot this opportunity, and its earlymover head-start has given it a market share of 60% in the
category.
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
74
Emami BUY
Figure77: FairandHandsomehasrapidlyrampedupsales
Fair&Handsome(Rsm)
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Hindustan Unilever launched its mens fairness cream two years after
Emamis launch. The initial launch was not a successthe company
was unable to garner a share of more than 10%. However, HULs
recent re-launch of the brand has been more successful, which has
led to Emamis volumes remaining flat YoY in 3QFY11. While larger
packs have seen YoY growth for Emami, the sachets, which account
for 50% of Emamis volumes, have seen a decline in 3QFY11. The
reason for this slowdown remains unclear.
The category growth will be
driven by more men shifting
to male-specific fairness
creams from general
fairness creams
Source:Company
Emami targets the entire
pain management category
of Rs30bn with Zandu Balm
as opposed to only the
Rs5bn pain balm market
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
75
Emami BUY
Figure78: ZanduBalmssaleshaverisenstronglyafteritstakeoverbyEmami
ZanduBalm(%YoYgrowth)
30%
Emami s aggressive
marketing inputs have led
to an acceleration in Zandu
Balms growth rates
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
76
Emami BUY
international
Figure79: Emamiskeyproductlaunchesinthepasttwoyearsalreadycontribute1012%ofoverallrevenues
Product
Category
Categorysize Productpropositionandmarketposition
Coldcream
Rs2bn
Containsmalai(milkcream),whichistraditionallyusedasaskin
creaminthewinter.
The brand has taken 89% market share in the cold cream
categoryin24monthsfromitslaunch.
Coolingtalcum
powder
Rs3.2bn
LaunchedinFY09andgrewover100%YoYinFY10.Nowhas13%
marketshareinthecategory.Thecompanyplanstorampitup
significantlyinFY12.
Rs2bn
category
Rs2bn
Rs4bn
MalaiKesarColdCream
NavratnaCoolTalc
PetroleumJelly
MalaiKesarColdCream
Creamglycerine
soap
MalaiKesarColdCream
Bodylotion
BoroPlusBodyLotion
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
77
Emami BUY
Emamis international
business is small, relative
to other Indian FMCG
players
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
RevenueCAGR40%
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure81: Emamidrawsmuchlower%contributionfrominternationalbusiness
Internationalbusinesscontributiontorevenues(%)
40%
35%
28%
30%
25%
20%
14%
10%
0%
GodrejConsumer
Marico
Dabur
Emami
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Emami is setting up
manufacturing in Egypt and
Bangladesh, which will be
new growth geographies
over the next 2-3 years
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
78
Emami BUY
Figure82: EmamiisstartingmanufacturinginnewgeographiesinFY12
Product
Productpropositionandmarketposition
x Emamisettingupmanufacturingunitforpainbalms,skincreamsandhairoils,whichwouldcommissionin
FY12
x AllofEmamiscategoriesarerelevantforthemarket,asconsumerbehaviourisverysimilartoEastIndia,
whichisabigmarketforEmami
Bangladesh
x InitialresponsefromproductsthatEmamiexportsanddistributestoBangladeshhasbeenvery
encouragingdespitethembeingataveryhighpriceduetohighimportduties.Thesedutieswouldnowgo
andproductswouldbepricedatsignificantlymoreaffordablerates
x EmamihasboughtamanufacturingassetinaFreeTradeZone,whichisexemptfromdirectandindirect
taxation
x EgyptwillbethemanufacturinghubfortheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,whicharecoveredinafreetrade
agreement
Egypt
x Emamicurrentlypays5%importdutyfortheproductsitsellsintheMiddleEast,whichwouldnotbethere
anymore
x GreaterexpansionintoNorthAfricawouldleadtofastergrowthinthisregion
Emami plans to take up the
share of international
business in overall
revenues from 14% now to
c20% in three years
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
79
Emami BUY
Figure84: Menthaoilhasrisenover90%YoY,thoughithasnowstabilised
MenthaOilIndex
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
Feb11
Dec10
Nov10
Sep10
Jul10
Jun10
Apr10
Mar10
Jan10
Dec09
Oct09
Aug09
Jul09
May09
Apr09
500
Feb09
700
Jan09
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
80
Emami BUY
Figure85: Liquidparaffinhasrisen45%YoYoncapacityshortages
LiquidParaffin(Rs/Lt)
55
50
45
40
35
30
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Sep09
Oct09
Nov09
Dec09
Jan10
Feb10
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
25
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure86: Packagingmaterialpriceswouldpickupwithalagtocrudeprices
HDPE(Rs/Kg)
80
76
72
68
64
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Sep09
Oct09
Nov09
Dec09
Jan10
Feb10
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
60
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
600
400
200
0
(200)
(400)
(600)
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
81
Emami BUY
18.5%
18%
17.8%
17%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
82
Emami BUY
Valuations
Stock correction owing to near-term margin pressures and an
expensive bid for Paras Pharma
Emamis stock has corrected 24% over the past six months largely
due to an earnings downgrade for FY11, owing to lower-thanexpected margins in 2HFY11 given the sharp spike in some raw
materials like menthol and liquid paraffin. Also, the managements
bid for Paras Pharma, at over 30x 1-year forward earnings, was seen
as a risk. However, we believe Emami has pricing power to mitigate
cost pressures. Thus, we see the current stock correction as an
opportunity to buy the stock.
Figure90: Emamiliesinafavourablepositionongrowthvaluationmatrix
PE(FY11)
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
HUL
Dabur
Colgate
AveragePE21.8
Marico
GCPL
Emami
AverageCAGR18.1%
5%
10%
15%
20%
EarningsCAGR(FY1013)
25%
30%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
83
Emami BUY
Key risks
Further commodity inflation will force more price hikes and
hence, hurt volume growth momentum: If commodity inflation
further intensifies, Emami would need to take further price hikes to
protect margins. However, steep price hikes could adversely affect
the strong double-digit volume growth that Emami is witnessing.
However, given the low penetration of most of Emamis key
categories, we believe any slowdown in volume growth would be
short lived.
Maricos continued
attempts to enter the
cooling oil market would
need to be monitored
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
84
Emami BUY
Appendix
Enterprising India 2: Excerpts from IIFLs interview
with the founders of Emami, RS Agarwal and RS
Goenka
RS Agarwal
RS Goenka
Tell us about the beginnings of Emami.
RS Agarwal: We used to study in the same school and became very
close friends. After graduation, we used to meet almost every day
and started thinking about what we could do together, and decided
to start a small business together. That is how the journey started.
With an initial investment of Rs20,000, we started our business from
a 60-sq-ft space in the godown. Our first big success came in 1974,
we launched the Emami brand name and launched talcum powders
and vanishing creams under the brand name. Both products were
hugely successfulso much so that in talcum powder, we became
the second-largest player in the country and in vanishing cream, we
actually became the market leader, beating established MNC brands.
How did you go about the key marketing tasksbranding,
product design, etc?
RS Agarwal: Right from the start, our mantra has been
distinctiveness, differentiation and innovation. We studied the gaps
in portfolios of the top FMCG companies, and we tried to use these
gaps to position our brands. When all other established brands were
selling skin creams in tin containers, Emami was the first to come up
with plastic packaging, which was a refreshing change and looked
significantly better. While all established brands were using cheaper
perfume, we came with French perfume in our talcum powder and
creams. If you ask consumers who bought these products around
the 1970s, they still remember the perfume of Emami talcum
powderit was so distinctive. We have followed the same mantra of
distinctiveness, differentiation and innovation in creating Boro Plus,
Navratna Oil and Fair & Handsome. Ours is the first company to have
come up with advertising in Hindi movies, a medium that was
probably the only form of entertainment for most people in the
1970s. So there was distinctiveness even in our style of advertising.
Were there failures in new products?
RS Goenka: Whenever the company faced any difficulty in any new
product launch, we were very fast to take decisions and withdraw
before any major loss was incurred. Our feedback mechanism and
MIS has been very strong from the very beginning, and this has
been the biggest reason we have managed to avoid major failures.
What has been your approach towards systems & processes?
RS Goenka: Our experience of having worked in the corporate world
stood us in good stead. For instance, from the very beginning, we
put in place a strong MIS for all parts of our business, be it sales,
purchase, manufacturing or supply chain. As early as 2003, we
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
85
Emami BUY
introduced ERP in our company, when even many of the large MNC
FMCG companies in India were operating on far inferior IT systems.
We have a large internal audit team with over 60 persons who
constantly audit operations, including forensic audit. Beyond this,
whenever we need to look at improvements in our operations, we
appoint best-in-class consultants to give us the advice.
Emami group has very large businesses outside of FMCG.
RS Goenka: We are today one of the largest business groups in
eastern India. We are the Indias largest player in newsprint. In
hospitals, we are the biggest private sector player in the eastern
zone. We have a pharmacy chain, which is the biggest in the eastern
zone, and probably the biggest in the country after Apollo. In real
estate, what we have built in Bengal would be a matter of pride for
anyone.
There is a perception that Emami is a family-run business and
hence professionals do not work in the senior.
RS Agarwal: There is a big difference between owners running a
company and professional owners managing a company. We are
professional owners. Both Goenkaji and I have strong higher
education backgrounds and we have worked in the corporate world
in important positions. If I am a chartered accountant, MCom, LLB,
FCS, am I not a professional myself? Today, we have around 140
MBAs and around 100 CAs working in our group.
Emami has a diverse set of business and a number of family
members are involved in running the businesses. What are
the key aspects of managing such a structure?
RS Agarwal: To begin with, each of the companies in our group is a
completely separate entity. None of our companies can fund another
within the group. In each company, one member of the second
generation from each of the two families is involved. Either Goenkaji
or I is chairman of each company. We have very well-defined and
documented rules for all family members. The rules cover a large
number of aspectsowning fixed assets, making investments,
personal expenses, and so on. Independent directors on our board
include the former chairman of Ernst & Young India, Mr K N Memani;
former governor of West Bengal Mr Viren J Shah; and eminent
lawyer Mr Y P Trivedi.
How do you evaluate acquisitions?
RS Goenka: Way back in 1982, we took over Himani, which was a
sick business in Kolkata. We launched Boro Plus cream in 1983 and
followed it up with Navratna oil under the Himani brand name. We
acquired Zandu for a price that many analysts then thought was too
high, but it was based on a very thorough and highly detailed
internal analysis of potential returns. We were clear that Zandu was
a valuable franchise, and would generate very high returns after cost
rationalisation. Sure enough, profits multiplied 4x within 1-2 years
after we took over the company. The Zandu brands revenues, which
were growing at less than 10% annually, are today growing higher
than 30%, thanks to our innovative marketing strategy. The same
rigorous process of evaluation was done for Paras Pharmaceuticals
when we bid for the company. The evaluation was done for every
product in the Paras portfolio, looking at possible synergies and
opportunities for growth. We know the value of money as we started
very small and are very careful when we use our resources.
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
86
Emami BUY
Financial summary
Incomestatementsummary(Rsm)
Revenue growth will be
led by volumes and will be
aided by new launches
Y/e31Mar
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
NetInterestexpense
OtherIncome
Profitbeforetax
Taxes
Exceptionalitems
Netprofit
FY09A
7,489
1,290
1,207
227
79
1,059
141
1
916
FY10A
10,217
2,465
2,310
210
70
2,171
352
121
1,697
FY11ii
12,241
2,601
2,433
93
88
2,614
307
0
2,307
FY12ii
14,486
3,307
3,126
180
96
3,402
456
0
2,946
FY13ii
17,001
4,078
3,883
207
120
4,210
800
2
3,412
FY09A
1,059
180
141
1,485
6
2,577
5,752
3,175
372
756
3,224
398
40
75
FY10A
2,171
154
352
532
121
1,319
667
1,987
2,075
176
1,892
531
10
1,473
FY11ii
2,614
168
307
103
0
2,372
404
2,776
0
0
1,600
810
9
357
FY12ii
3,402
181
456
158
0
2,969
200
2,769
0
0
500
1,034
0
1,235
FY13ii
4,210
195
800
65
2
3,542
200
3,342
0
0
0
1,397
0
1,945
FY09A
141
710
738
808
6,495
426
9,318
752
1,269
494
3,731
60
3,013
9,318
FY10A
1,614
755
826
1,065
5,673
602
10,536
1,098
927
695
1,492
70
6,254
10,536
FY11ii
1,971
904
990
1,276
5,101
602
10,845
498
1,066
976
492
60
7,751
10,845
FY12ii
3,206
1,070
1,172
1,510
5,120
602
12,680
498
1,262
1,204
8
60
9,663
12,680
FY13ii
5,151
1,256
1,375
1,772
5,125
602
15,281
498
1,481
1,571
8
60
11,678
15,281
FY09A
29.4
35.6
17.2
16.1
12.2
43.5
13.3
31.2
FY10A
36.4
91.0
24.1
22.6
16.6
31.3
16.2
36.6
FY11ii
19.8
5.5
21.2
19.9
18.8
35.1
11.7
32.9
FY12ii
18.3
27.2
22.8
21.6
20.3
35.1
13.4
33.8
FY13ii
17.4
23.3
24.0
22.8
20.1
40.9
19.0
32.0
Cashflowsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Profitbeforetax
Depr.&amortization
Taxpaid
Workingcapital
Otheroperatingitems
Operatingcashflow
Capitalexpenditure
Freecashflow
Equityraised
Investments
Debtfinancing/disposal
Dividendspaid
Otheritems
Netchangeincash
Balancesheetsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Cash&equivalents
Sundrydebtors
Inventoriestrade
Othercurrentassets
Fixedassets
Othertermassets
Totalassets
Shorttermdebt
Sundrycreditors
Othercurrentliabs
Longtermdebt/CBs
Otherlongtermliabs
Networth
Totalliabs&equity
Ratioanalysis
Y/e31Mar
Revenuegrowth(%)
OpEbitdagrowth(%)
OpEbitdamargin(%)
OpEbitmargin(%)
Netprofitmargin(%)
Dividendpayout(%)
Taxrate(%)
Returnonequity(%)
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
87
Emami BUY
arnab.mitra@iiflcap.com
88
Rs348
CMP
Rs475(36%)
Target12m
Marketcap(US$m)
Bloomberg
958
HAVLIN
Sector
Midcaps
14March2011
52WkHigh/Low(Rs)
447/258
Shareso/s(m)
125
Dailyvolume(US$m)
2
DividendyieldFY11ii(%)
1.5
Freefloat(%)
38.4
Shareholdingpattern(%)
QimatRaiGupta&family
61.6
FIIs
16.3
DIIs
2.4
Foreigncorporatebodies
10.7
Priceperformance(%)
1M
3M
HavellsIndia
15.0
6.5 27.2
Rel.toSensex 12.5
0.4 21.3
BajajElectricals
0.1 14.1
10.3
Siemens
Stockmovement
Shares(000')
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
BUY
Charged up
Electrical consumer-goods major Havells is a beneficiary of
robust demand growth based on upgrading consumer
preferences and increased construction activity in its key
verticalsswitchgears, lighting fixtures, consumer durables
(fans) and cables/wires. Strong brands built through
aggressive advertising strategy and extensive distribution
networks are sustainable growth drivers. Consolidated
leverage is set to decline, with its European lighting-fixtures
acquisition Sylvania looking to breakeven in FY12, post
restructuring. The stocks current P/E of 11.8 on FY12ii is
reasonable, in our view, and our target price of Rs475
(ascribing zero equity value to Sylvania) indicates 36%
upside. We retain BUY.
Domestic business is a good play on the consumption theme:
Havellss consumer businesses such as fans, lighting fixtures, and
CFLs (compact fluorescent lamps) are its fastest-growing domestic
businesses (growing at over 30% annually). We assume 14.4%
CAGR in standalone revenues over FY10-13ii, driven by higher
growth rates in consumer businesses. The company spends ~2-4%
of its revenues on advertising, and has about 2,000 distributors in
India who in turn reach out to ~25,000 retail points.
Significant progress at Sylvania: Havells India acquired Sylvania
for an EV of 227m in April 2007 (200m debt, 27m pension
liability). According to the company, restructuring efforts through
Operation Phoenix and Parakram at an estimated cost of 32m
would generate annual savings of 39m (mainly in manpower costs),
and would be fully visible in FY12, when the company should
breakeven. In our estimate of Sylvanias turnaround, we do not
assume any growth spurt or gross margin improvement in the entity.
1Y
Volume(LHS)
Price(RHS)
Havells India
(Rs)
500
400
300
200
100
0
www.iiflcap.com
Source:Company,IIFLResearch.Priceasatcloseofbusinesson11March2011.
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Financialsummary(Rs m)
Y/e31Mar
Revenues(Rsm)
EBITDAMargins(%)
PreExceptionalPAT(Rsm)
ReportedPAT(Rsm)
EPS(Rs)
Growth(%)
IIFLvsconsensus(%)
PER(x)
ROE(%)
Debt/Equity(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Price/Book(x)
SantanuChakrabarti
santanu@iiflcap.com
912246464667
FY09A
54,775
5.3
385
1,601
3.2
77.0
FY10A
53,569
5.4
372
2,384
3.1
3.3
108.9
5.9
2.0
17.2
6.8
112.6
7.5
2.8
16.9
11.0
FY11ii
55,802
8.8
2,434
2,434
20.2
554.0
5.8
17.2
50.0
1.9
10.0
7.1
FY12ii
60,652
9.9
3,536
3,536
29.4
45.3
2.9
11.8
48.2
1.1
7.9
4.8
FY13ii
66,184
10.6
4,327
4,327
36.0
22.3
2.6
9.7
41.3
0.6
6.4
3.4
89
89
Company snapshot
Havells India, incorporated in 1983, makes a wide range of lowvoltage electrical equipment. The company is dominant across a
wide spectrum of products and servicesindustrial and domestic
protection switchgears, cables and wires, motors, fans, power
capacitors, CFLs, luminaires for domestic and industrial applications,
modular switches, and energy meters such as static and
electromechanical meters. The company acquired global lighting
fixtures major Sylvania in April 2007 for an EV consideration of
227m, funded through debt of 200m. Of this amount, 120m was
with recourse to Havells, and there was a residual pension liability of
27m. Havells owns some prestigious global brands, among them
Crabtree, Concord and Luminance, and has 91 branches and
representatives offices with over 8,000 staff in 50 countries. The
company has 11 manufacturing plants in India, located at Haridwar,
Baddi, Samepur Badli, Noida, Sahibabad, Faridabad, Alwar and
Neemrana. Sylvania has eight manufacturing plants across Europe,
Latin America and Africa.
FY10revenuebreakup
EBITDAmarginssettoexpand
8
6
4
2
Management
Name
Designation Remarks/managementdescription
QimatRaiGupta
CMD
Chairmanandgroupfounder.Rootsintradingofelectricalgoods.
AnilGupta
JointMD
GraduatedineconomicsfromSriramCollegeofCommerce,DelhiUniversity.MBA
(MarketingandFinance)fromWakeUniversity,NorthCarolina.
FY13ii
FY12ii
FY11ii
FY10
FY09
FY08
0
FY07
Sylvania
52%
10
FY06
Electrical
Consumable
Durables
7%
Lighting&Fixtures
standalone
Others
7%
1%
Switchgears
13%
EBITDAmargin(%)
12
FY05
Cable&Wires
20%
Assumptions
Y/e31Mar
Standalonerevenuegrowth(%)
Cable&Wiresgrowth(%)
ConsumableDurablesgrowth(%)
Lighting&Fixturesgrowth(%)
Othersgrowth(%)
Standalonegrossmargins(%)
StandaloneEBITDAmargins(%)
Sylvaniaconstantcurrgrowth(%)
EURINR
SylvaniaEBITDAmargin(%)
FY09A
4.2
4.0
15.4
3.1
36.0
35.9
9.2
2.1
65.0
2.6
FY10A
10.7
1.1
30.9
33.5
32.1
40.2
12.6
14.7
67.1
0.7
FY11ii
19.4
20.0
29.0
24.0
5.0
39.0
12.0
2.1
62.0
5.2
FY12ii
13.5
10.0
20.0
20.0
5.0
38.0
11.6
3.3
62.0
7.8
FY13ii
13.6
10.0
20.0
20.0
5.0
38.0
12.4
3.5
62.0
8.1
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
90
Lighting&Fixtures
14%
Others
1%
Switchgears
28%
Cable&Wires
43%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure92: BreakupofdomesticprofitcontributionpieFY10
Cable&Wires
17%
Switchgears
50%
Electrical
Consumable
Durables
19%
Others
1%
Lighting&
Fixtures
13%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
91
Competition is margin
focused in switchgears
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
92
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
93
Figure95:Healthyconsumerdurablemargins
Consumerdurablesmargin(%)
32
24
16
8
0
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
15
12
9
6
3
0
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
94
Figure97:Adexpensestosalesratio
Adexpenses/sales(%)
4
3
2
1
0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Distribution a key
strength
santanu@iiflcap.com
95
Figure98:Revenuemodel
(Rsm)
Standalonerevenues
Cable&Wires
ElectricalConsumableDurables
Lighting&Fixtures
Others
Switchgears
Standalonerevenuesgrowth(%)
Cable&Wires
ElectricalConsumableDurables
Lighting&Fixtures
Others
Switchgears
FY09
23,414
11,066
2,769
2,805
541
6,234
4.2
4.0
15.4
3.1
36.0
9.7
FY10
25,928
10,949
3,625
3,743
367
7,244
10.7
1.1
30.9
33.5
32.1
16.2
FY11ii
30,113
12,591
4,531
4,492
385
8,114
16.1
15.0
25.0
20.0
5.0
12.0
FY12ii
34,170
13,850
5,437
5,390
404
9,087
FY13ii
38,831
15,235
6,525
6,469
425
10,178
13.5
10.0
20.0
20.0
5.0
12.0
13.6
10.0
20.0
20.0
5.0
12.0
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
96
Parakram(Phase2)
Startedin4QCY09
OperationaldetailsLayoff400staffand
startoutsourcingfromChina/India
Estimatedcostof20m
Annualsavingsexpected22m
AlmostcompletedbyendCY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
97
Figure101: Regionwiserevenues(m)
3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 %YoY %QoQ
Netrevenue
106.47 108.56 103.89 109.61 115.91
8.9
5.7
Europe
77.33
76.83
67.02
65.59
74.10 4.2 13.0
Americas
27.53
29.04
32.67
37.56
35.60 29.3
5.2
Asia
2.88
4.04
5.47
5.88
4.62 60.4 21.4
Other/elimination
(1.27)
(1.35)
(1.27)
0.58
1.59 225.2 174.1
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Asia and the Americas lead the way in revenue growth, while Europe
declined YoY.
Figure102: DebtinSylvania(m)deleveraginginprogress
3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11
Totalnetdebt(inEurosm)
138.5
143.4
155.1
166.6
147.5
WithrecoursetoHavells
16.7
16.7
13.3
13.3
10.0
Acquisitiondebt
16.7
16.7
13.3
13.3
10.0
Otherdebt
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
WithoutrecoursetoHavells
134.6
139.4
150.2
161.7
150.1
Less:Cash
12.8
12.6
8.4
8.4
12.6
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
98
Figure103: Havells'exposuretoSylvania(m)
3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11
Initialequityinvestment(A)
NA
50
50
50
50
DebtwithrecoursetoHavells(B)
NA
54
54
45
45
Recoursedebtrepaid
NA
13
17
17
20
Recoursedebttoberepaidtill2012
NA
17
13
13
10
Estimatedinterestpaid/payable
NA
10
10
10
10
AddlWCdebtguaranteedbyHavells
NA
14
14
5
5
Totalinitialexposure(A)+(B)
NA
104
104
95
95
Additionalequityinvested
12
12
12
26
35
TotalexposureofHavellstoSylvania
NA
116
116
121
130
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Total exposure of Havells is
130m
No aggressive business
turnaround assumptions for
Sylvania
Figure104: Sylvaniaassumptions
Sylvaniageographicalbreakup(m)
Netrevenue
Europe
Americas
Asia
Other/elimination
Sylvaniageographicalgrowthrates(%)
Netrevenue
Europe
Americas
Asia
Other/elimination
FY10
406.6
290.3
105.4
13.5
(2.5)
FY10
(14.1)
(13.2)
(16.6)
(38.8)
(74.4)
FY11ii
398.1
270.0
115.9
14.8
(2.6)
FY11ii
(2.1)
(7.0)
10.0
10.0
5.0
FY12ii
411.0
270.0
127.5
16.3
(2.7)
FY13ii
425.3
270.0
140.3
17.9
(2.9)
FY12ii
3.3
0.0
10.0
10.0
5.0
FY13ii
3.5
0.0
10.0
10.0
5.0
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
99
Entire profitability
improvement is due to
reduced manpower costs
FY10
430
0
430
121
81
10
0
212
217
50.5
101
67
23
30
433
(3)
1
9
(12)
(11)
13
(24)
41
(65)
1
0
3
0
(69)
0
(69)
FY11ii
421
0
421
110
89
5
0
204
217
51.5
75
66
22
32
399
22
1
8
14
15
13
2
5
(3)
3
0
0
0
(6)
0
(6)
FY12ii
435
0
435
FY13ii
450
0
450
108
98
5
0
211
224
51.5
68
68
22
32
401
34
1
8
26
27
13
14
0
14
3
0
0
0
11
0
11
105
108
5
0
218
232
51.5
71
70
22
32
414
36
1
8
28
29
13
16
0
16
3
0
0
0
13
0
13
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
100
Havellss key raw materials are copper and aluminium. Prices of both
have been up 25-50% in 3QFY11 and show no signs of abating.
These two commodities are 50% of the raw-material book.
Figure106: Rawmaterialinflationalreadyrunninghigh
3,500
(US$/tonne)
3,000
(US$/tonne)
10,000
Aluminium(LHS)
2,500
12,000
8,000
2,000
6,000
1,500
Copper(RHS)
4,000
1,000
2,000
500
Jan07
Mar07
May07
Aug07
Oct07
Dec07
Feb08
May08
Jul08
Sep08
Dec08
Feb09
Apr09
Jul09
Sep09
Nov09
Jan10
Apr10
Jun10
Aug10
Nov10
Jan11
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure107: Pricingpowermap
Category
%ofcontribution
profits
Competitivelandscape
Switchgears
50%
ThemostprofitablesegmentforHavellsduetosafetyfirstbrand
discriminatoryattitudeofconsumers.Thecompetitivepeergroupissmall High
andprofitfocusisprimaryforallplayers.
Consumer
durables(fans)
13%
Presenceatthehigherpricepointsensuresfreedomfromthescramblefor
Medium
marginsatthebottomendofthepricespectrum
Domestic
lighting
19%
Havellsbrandisestablishedandcanpriceitselfatapremiumtoregional
brandswithoutdemanddestruction
Medium
Cables&wires
17%
TheleastprotectedcategoryinmargintermsforHavells.Highly
competitivecommodityconversionbusiness.
Low
Pricingpower
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
101
We assume no
improvement in gross
margins
Figure108: Consolidatedratios
KeyRatios
YeartoMarch
Growth(%):
NetSales
NetSales
GrossProfit
OpEBITDA
OtherIncome
OpEBIT
APAT
Profitability(%)
Grossmargin
OpEBITDAmargin
OpEBITmargin
APATmargin
Materialcosts/Sales
Personnelexpenses/Sales
Nonemployeeoverheads/Sales
Taxrate
AssetEfficiency
Inventory(DaysofSales)
Debtor(DaysofSales)
NWC(DaysofSales)Netofcash
FixedAssetTurnover(Sales/FixedAssets)
SalestoCapitalEmployed
CapitalStructure
GrossDebtEquityratio
NetDebtEquityratio
InterestCoverage(EBIT/Interest)
Returnratios
RoACE(%)
RoAE(%)
IncrementalCapitalDeploymentmetric
PayoutRatio(%)
FY09 FY10 FY11ii FY12ii FY13ii
9.5
(2.2)
3.9
8.6
9.0
7.9
(0.8)
2.2
6.6
8.2
(16.7)
(0.4) 61.7 28.4 16.1
(65.6) 147.3 (22.5) 30.3 23.3
(28.5)
4.7 88.0 33.2 17.9
NA
NA
NA 61.6 23.1
NA
NA
NA 61.6 23.1
45.1
45.7 45.0 44.2 43.9
5.3
5.4
8.4 10.0 10.6
3.6
3.9
7.0
8.6
9.3
2.9
4.5
3.9
5.8
6.5
54.9
54.3 55.0 55.8 56.1
15.5
14.1 10.6
8.8
8.4
24.4
26.2 26.0 25.4 24.8
52.6
71.6 30.4 21.3 20.5
53
55
55
55
55
50
47
50
50
50
23
7
22
22
22
6.2
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
3.0
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.0
2.8
2.1
1.1
0.6
1.6
2.4
1.7
0.9
0.4
1.6
2.3
4.2
5.5
6.5
10.8
13.8 25.2 29.7 32.5
(24.9) (48.0) 45.5 48.2 40.0
(9)
(9)
13
9
9
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
102
adjusted for pension liabilities. This potential boost equates to 2530% of current market capitalisation.
Key risks
Sylvania turnaround and
raw-material costs are key
risks
santanu@iiflcap.com
103
Appendix
Enterprising India 2: Excerpts from IIFLs interview
with Anil Gupta, Joint MD & Qimat Rai Gupta,
Chairman & MD, Havells
Anil Gupta
santanu@iiflcap.com
104
What are the key risks in your business and how do you
manage them?
Anil Gupta: The biggest risk is competitionthe market is moving
very fast in terms of technology, product range, costs, branding,
reach you name it. As Andy Grove of Intel said, only the paranoid
survive. No one can say they are comfortable, as everyone is always
at risk in one aspect or another.
Qimat Rai Gupta: We need to be ever watchful, so we have formed
a core thinking group to keep abreast of changes in market and
competition trends to take corrective action as needed from time to
time.
If you were to correct one mistake in your career, what would
that be?
Anil Gupta: The way we managed Sylvania was the biggest mistake
we made. We did not integrate the two companies for the first one
and half years after our acquisition; if I had the power, I would go
back to 2007 and change that. We lost two years in that, and that
meant we were caught unprepared when Europe was struck by a
recession in 2008. I think the company lost money because of that.
We also lost credibility. But it was a big learning exercise; if it were
not for that bad patch, maybe we would not even have learnt how to
manage in a crisis, because in India in the last 20 years of my
career, we had never seen a crisis.
What was the thinking behind the Sylvania acquisition? Does
the rationale for that acquisition still hold?
Anil Gupta: Ten yeas ago, when multinationals in our field started
arriving in India, we decided that we had to invest in our
manufacturing practices, make them world-scale as well as worldclass in technology. So in 2000, we started investing heavily into our
manufacturing setup and product quality, to protect our standing in
the Indian market. When we started doing that, we realised that we
had to make products comparable with international standards. As
our quality improved, overseas companies with major brands started
outsourcing their manufacturing to us. As we did that, our
aspirations rose: if we could manufacture for someone else, why not
for our own brand? In 2003-4, we started putting in a lot of
investment into expanding into export markets, putting up offices in
various locations, but we knew that not having a big brand was a
limitation. With Sylvania, the biggest advantage was that it was an
established brand. Plus, it had a distribution channel across 50
countries, and this clinched it for us; otherwise, we would have had
to acquire multiple companies across countries. Sylvania was one
company which was available at a price, but with access to various
marketsvery strong European markets, in addition to the fastgrowing LatAm market. So we decided to use this channel, brandnew as it was, to sell more of Havells products. That rationale still
holds true and now that is bringing success because we have
integrated the companies. Earlier, we were treating them as two
separate companies, as though Sylvania was more of a financial
investment, whereas Havells was our own company. I think that
changed in the last two years. That was our biggest learning: any
company that you acquire should be properly integrated, and that
comes with experience.
Qimat Rai Gupta: When we first ventured into exports, we realised
that an established brand with top-of-mind recall in its country is key
to penetrating foreign markets. This was the key attraction in
Sylvania.
santanu@iiflcap.com
105
Financial summary
Incomestatementsummary(Rs m)
Y/e31Mar
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Interestexpense
Exceptionalitems
Othersitems
Profitbeforetax
Taxexpense
Extraordinaryitems
NetProfit
FY09A
54,775
2,886
1,981
1,253
0
86
814
429
1,986
1,601
FY10A
53,569
2,898
2,073
973
0
213
1,313
941
2,756
2,384
FY11ii
55,802
4,926
4,140
956
0
162
3,346
912
0
2,434
FY12ii
60,652
6,022
5,197
971
0
212
4,438
902
0
3,536
FY13ii
66,184
6,993
6,123
996
0
262
5,389
1,062
0
4,327
FY09A
1,981
905
429
2,224
233
4,448
1,424
3,024
1,022
32
684
176
22
2,030
FY10A
2,073
825
941
2,334
367
4,659
935
3,723
586
0
1,669
528
376
1,729
FY11ii
4,140
786
912
2,264
0
1,750
1,135
616
301
0
645
634
120
254
FY12ii
5,197
825
902
292
0
4,828
1,633
3,195
0
0
1,552
704
120
300
FY13ii
6,123
870
1,062
333
0
5,597
1,792
3,805
0
0
2,111
880
120
200
FY09A
2,473
7,573
7,947
2,414
8,842
3,579
32,830
14,501
12,278
97
0
6,147
32,830
FY10A
1,446
6,885
8,130
2,141
8,952
3,212
30,766
16,056
10,610
279
2
3,819
30,766
FY11ii
1,700
7,644
8,409
2,355
9,300
3,212
32,620
15,044
11,254
399
2
5,921
32,620
FY12ii
2,000
8,308
9,139
2,590
10,109
3,212
35,359
16,382
9,702
519
2
8,753
35,359
FY13ii
2,200
9,066
9,973
2,849
11,031
3,212
38,331
17,899
7,591
639
2
12,200
38,331
FY09A
9.5
16.7
28.5
5.3
3.6
0.7
45.7
52.7
160.1
5.9
1.1
FY10A
2.2
0.4
4.7
5.4
3.9
0.7
141.9
71.6
239.9
7.5
1.2
FY11ii
4.2
70.0
99.7
8.8
7.4
4.4
26.0
27.2
161.4
50.0
7.7
FY12ii
8.7
22.3
25.5
9.9
8.6
5.8
19.9
20.3
88.0
48.2
10.4
FY13ii
9.1
16.1
17.8
10.6
9.3
6.5
20.3
19.7
44.2
41.3
11.7
Cashflowsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
EBIT
Depreciation&Amortization
Taxpaid
Workingcapitalchange
Otheroperatingitems
OperatingCashflow
Capitalexpenditure
Freecashflow
Equityraised
Investments
Debtfinancing/disposal
Dividendspaid
Otheritems
NetchangeinCash&cashequivalents
Balancesheetsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Cash&cashequivalents
Sundrydebtors
TradeInventories
Othercurrentassets
Fixedassets
Intangibleassets
Totalassets
Sundrycreditors
Longtermdebt/Convertibles
Otherlongtermliabilities
Minorities/otherEquity
Networth
Totalliabilities&equity
Ratioanalysis
Leverage set to
reduce
Y/e31Mar
Salesgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAgrowth(%)
CoreEBITgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAmargin(%)
CoreEBITmargin(%)
Netprofitmargin(%)
Dividendpayoutratio(%)
Taxrate(%)
NetDebt/Equity(%)
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
Source: Company data, IIFL Research
santanu@iiflcap.com
106
Rs135
CMP
Rs171(27%)
Target12m
Marketcap(US$m)
Bloomberg
705
HTMLIN
Sector
Media
14March2011
52WkHigh/Low(Rs)
186/125
Shareso/s(m)
235
Dailyvolume(US$m)
0
DividendyieldFY11ii(%)
0.2
Freefloat(%)
31.2
Shareholdingpattern(%)
K.K.Birlagroup
68.8
FIIs
12.3
DIIs
13.6
Others
Priceperformance(%)
1M
5.3
3M
1Y
HTMedia
Rel.toSensex
6.3
DBCorp
Volume(LHS)
Price(RHS)
(Rs)
150
100
50
0
BijalShah
bijal@iiflcap.com
912246464645
AkashChattopadhyay
akash.chattopadhyay@iiflcap.com
912246464668
www.iiflcap.com
A fine print
HT Media, a leading print media conglomerate, boasts of a
strong product portfolio catering to the lucrative English and
Hindi print markets. Well-entrenched leadership of its flagship
dailies, Hindustan Times in English and Hindustan in Hindi in
their respective legacy markets would enable it to capitalise on
ad-spend strength. In the new markets, namely Hindustan
Times in Mumbai and Hindustan in Uttar Pradesh we expect,
its ad-revenues to surge, as its readership market share is
nearing inflection. Having made peak investments in these
markets, a strong operating leverage would come into play,
leading to 34% earnings CAGR over FY11-13ii.
English - Mumbai at inflection point, while Delhi reaps
tailwinds: On the strength of a continued recovery in English print
media ad spends, we expect ~10% growth in FY12. HT Mumbais
readership has risen 18% since the papers re-launch in July 2009,
and it is now the second-most-popular daily in Mumbai. HT is now
better-placed to tap the lucrative Mumbai market, with strong adspend growth in Delhi and funding needs in the Hindi markets being
met by proceeds of the recent IPO. At margin, competition has also
reduced. As HTs readership has already reached 40% of that of the
leader, Times of India, further gains in readership would lead to
disproportionate gains in advertising revenues in Mumbai.
200
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
BUY
2.1 9.8
JagranPrakashan
HT Media Limited
Financialsummary(Rs m)
Y/e31Mar
Revenues(Rsm)
EBITDAMargins(%)
PreExceptionalPAT(Rsm)
ReportedPAT(Rsm)
AdjustedEPS(Rs)
Growth(%)
PER(x)
ROE(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Price/Book(x)
FY09A
13,591
7.4
199
9
0.8
80.4
NA
0.1
34.3
3.7
FY10A
14,378
19.5
1,438
1,362
6.1
624.3
21.8
14.0
11.9
3.2
FY11ii
17,396
19.2
1,686
1,686
7.2
17.3
18.6
12.5
8.0
2.3
FY12ii
19,829
21.2
2,232
2,232
9.5
32.4
14.1
14.3
5.8
2.0
FY13ii
22,007
24.2
3,013
3,013
12.9
35.0
10.4
16.2
4.1
1.7
Source:Company,IIFLResearch.Priceasatcloseofbusinesson11March2011.
107
107
Company snapshot
Breakdownofrevenues
HT(English
daily)
67%
Hindustan
(Hindidaily)
26%
Mint
3%
Radio
4%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Keybusinessandmarkets
HT Media
Others
English
Hindustan Times
2nd largest English
daily; leader in
Delhi; ramping-up
in Mumbai
Hindi
Mint
2nd largest
business
daily
(76%
subsidiary)
Hindustan
3rd largest Hindi
daily; leader in
Bihar; rampingup in UP
Radio
Radio station
Fever 104
among top 2
stations in
Delhi, Mumbai
and Bangalore
Internet
Printing
News,
horizontal and
job portals
JV with Burda
for high-end
print jobs
Source:IIFLResearch
Assumptions
Y/e31Mar
Adrevenuegrowth(%)
Circulationrevenuegrowth(%)
Newsprintcosts(Rs/t)
EBITDAmargins(%)
FY09A
FY10A
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
12%
1%
21%
14%
11%
3%
19%
5%
5%
5%
34,334
30,912
31,839
33,750
33,750
7.4
19.5
19.2
21.2
24.2
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
bijal@iiflcap.com
108
Marketposition
1
2
2
2
2
4
Source:Company,IRS,IIFLResearch
Figure110: DelhicontributesthelionsshareofHTstotalrevenues
Mumbai
85%
Delhi
15%
Source:Industry,IIFLResearch
The Delhi English print
market is essentially a
duopoly between HT and
ToI
bijal@iiflcap.com
109
ToI
HT
1,950
1,700
1,450
1,200
R1
2007
R2
2007
R1
2008
R2
2008
R1
2009
R2
2009
R1
2010
R2
2010
R3
2010
Source:Company,IRS,IIFLResearch
bijal@iiflcap.com
110
('000readers)
1,800
DNA
ToI
1,350
900
450
0
R1
2007
R2
2007
R1
2008
R2
2008
R1
2009
R2
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Source:Company,IRS,IIFLResearch
bijal@iiflcap.com
111
Others
13%
Regional
details
12%
Source:Company,IRS,IIFLResearch
Figure115: HThasmadenecessaryinvestmentsinMumbai;monetisationtofollow
TOIMumbai
HTMumbai
HTas%ofTOI
Revenues(Rsm)
11,000
1,000
9%
Circulation(000)
550
365
66%
Readership(000)
1,559
592
38%
RPC(x)
2.8
1.6
58%
Revenue/reader(Rs)
7,056
1,689
24%
Revenue/copy(Rs)
20,000
2,740
14%
Source:Company,IRS,IIFLResearch
We are factoring in breakeven in Mumbai in FY13;
guidance is for 4QFY12
bijal@iiflcap.com
112
Hindustan dominant in
Bihar; leader in Jharkhand
Hindustan
DainikJagran
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
R1
2007
R2
2007
R1
2008
R2
2008
R1
2009
R2
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Source:Company,IRS,IIFLResearch.
bijal@iiflcap.com
113
Figure118: JharkhandmarketHTenjoys40%leadovernearestcompetitor,Jagran
('000readers)
1,800
Hindustan
DainikJagran
PrabhatKhabar
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
R12008
R22008
R12009
R22009
Source:Company,IRS,IIFLResearch.
Hindustan ramping up in
UP; earnings from this
market could inflect
bijal@iiflcap.com
114
Figure119: TractioninUPimproving
('000readers)
DainikJagran
AmarUjala
Hindustan
10,000
8,500
7,000
5,500
4,000
2,500
1,000
R12009
R22009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Source:Company,IRS,IIFLResearch.
Hindustans readership is
35% of Jagrans in UP; but
ad-rates would be less than
20%
115
HTs foray into the Rs6bn business news market was through a
business daily, Mint. This market has traditionally been dominated by
the Times of India Groups business daily, Economic Times, which
has 62% of the segments readership and commands 75% of the
segments ad revenues.
Figure121: BusinessnewssegmentdominatedbyEconomicTimes
Economic
Times
75%
Business
Standard
13%
Mint
7%
Financial
Express
5%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure122: Mintastrongstart,butalongwaytogo
('000people)
EconomicTimes
Mint
BusinessStandard
900
675
450
225
0
R12008
R22008
R12009
R22009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Source:Company,IRS,IIFLResearch.
bijal@iiflcap.com
116
Fever104
RadioCity
RedFM
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Delhi
Mumbai
Bengaluru
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
bijal@iiflcap.com
117
Figure124: Radiobusinessoffersmoderategrowthinrevenues
(Rsm)
Adrevenues(LHS)
Growth(RHS)
800
35.0%
30.0%
700
25.0%
600
20.0%
500
15.0%
10.0%
400
5.0%
0.0%
300
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
bijal@iiflcap.com
118
Attractive
growth
valuations,
robust
earnings
Adrevenues(LHS)
(%)
25.0
Growth(RHS)
20.0
4,000
15.0
10.0
3,000
5.0
2,000
0.0
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
bijal@iiflcap.com
119
Figure126: SharpswingaheadinHTsadrevenues
(Rsm)
Adrevenues(LHS)
(%)
Growth(RHS)
12,000
20.0
15.0
10,000
10.0
5.0
8,000
0.0
(5.0)
6,000
(10.0)
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
bijal@iiflcap.com
120
Key issues
Competition resorting to excessively aggressive price
competition: Competition in the Hindi print media space is likely to
escalate, as incumbent players expand beyond their core markets.
The first casualty of this increasing competition would be cover
prices, with steep cuts hitting subscription revenues. In a bid to
retain their share of readership, incumbents may increase print
orders, which would mean higher costs. If a new entrant manages to
raise its readership close to that of the leader in its respective
market, it could put pressure on advertising rates in that market. On
the other hand, we think steep cuts in advertising rates are unlikely
in the medium term.
Widening losses in the portal business: HT Medias portal
business registered EBITDA-level losses of Rs350m in FY10. The
company plans to expand its job-search portal platform to other
verticals. Expansion along these lines would make it difficult for the
management to contain the portal businesss losses at
managements guidance of FY10 levels.
bijal@iiflcap.com
121
Appendix
Enterprising India 2: Excerpts from IIFLs interview
with Shobhana Bhartia, Chairperson, HT Media
Shobhana Bhartia
122
bijal@iiflcap.com
123
Financial summary
Incomestatementsummary (Rs m)
13% revenue CAGR over
FY11-13ii
34% CAGR in
consolidated profits over
FY11-13ii
Y/e31Mar
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Interestexpense
Exceptionalitems
Othersitems
Profitbeforetax
Taxexpense
Extraordinaryitems
NetProfit
FY09A
13,591
1,003
315
323
189
206
9
125
125
9
FY10A
14,378
2,803
2,099
295
76
159
1,888
537
11
1,362
FY11ii
17,396
3,339
2,508
220
0
250
2,538
736
116
1,686
FY12ii
19,829
4,198
3,297
200
0
301
3,398
985
181
2,232
FY13ii
22,007
5,333
4,361
130
0
357
4,589
1,331
245
3,013
FY09A
9
688
39
750
84
1,491
2,576
1,084
2
379
1,476
82
68
FY10A
1,888
704
508
1,897
153
4,134
1,393
2,741
0
1,720
581
58
381
FY11ii
2,538
831
736
40
163
2,755
900
1,855
2,698
2,255
2,040
58
4,709
FY12ii
3,398
901
985
249
0
3,065
850
2,215
0
0
0
58
2,156
FY13ii
4,589
971
1,331
877
0
3,352
900
2,452
0
0
0
58
2,394
FY09A
705
2,199
1,756
2,315
6,717
1,000
3,035
17,728
8
5,227
172
3,699
207
69
8,486
17,728
FY10A
1,087
2,423
1,200
2,007
7,494
912
4,777
19,901
0
6,377
279
3,125
178
218
9,725
19,901
FY11ii
5,796
2,931
1,498
2,600
7,663
813
2,522
23,823
0
7,744
270
1,085
178
1,094
13,452
23,823
FY12ii
7,952
3,341
1,714
3,100
7,724
701
2,522
27,054
0
8,611
280
1,085
178
1,275
15,625
27,054
FY13ii
10,346
3,708
1,798
4,100
7,776
577
2,522
30,828
0
9,186
280
1,085
178
1,520
18,579
30,828
FY09A
12.9
40.9
72.1
7.4
2.3
1.5
NA
NA
35.4
0.1
1.3
FY10A
5.8
179.3
565.6
19.5
14.6
10.0
4.3
28.4
21.0
14.0
7.6
FY11ii
21.0
19.1
19.5
19.2
14.4
9.7
3.5
29.0
35.0
12.5
7.7
FY12ii
14.0
25.7
31.5
21.2
16.6
11.3
2.6
29.0
44.0
14.3
8.8
FY13ii
11.0
27.0
32.3
24.2
19.8
13.7
1.9
29.0
49.8
16.2
10.4
Cashflowsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
EBIT
Depreciation&Amortization
Taxpaid
Workingcapitalchange
Otheroperatingitems
OperatingCashflow
Capitalexpenditure
Freecashflow
Equityraised
Investments
Debtfinancing/disposal
Dividendspaid
NetchangeinCash&cashequivalents
Balancesheetsummary(Rsm)
Cash balance to surge
Y/e31Mar
Cash&cashequivalents
Sundrydebtors
TradeInventories
Othercurrentassets
Fixedassets
Intangibleassets
Otherassets
Totalassets
Shorttermdebt
Sundrycreditors
Othercurrentliabilities
Longtermdebt/Convertibles
Otherlongtermliabilities
Minorities/otherEquity
Networth
Totalliabilities&equity
Ratioanalysis
Y/e31Mar
Salesgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAgrowth(%)
CoreEBITgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAmargin(%)
CoreEBITmargin(%)
Netprofitmargin(%)
Dividendpayoutratio(%)
Taxrate(%)
NetDebt/Equity(%)
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
Source: Company data, IIFL Research
bijal@iiflcap.com
124
Rs305
CMP
Target12m
Rs400(31%)
Marketcap(US$m)
943
Bloomberg
IGLIN
Sector
Utilities
14March2011
52WkHigh/Low(Rs)
374/209
Shareso/s(m)
140
Dailyvolume(US$m)
2
DividendyieldFY11ii(%)
2.2
Freefloat(%)
55.0
Shareholdingpattern(%)
BPCL
22.5
GailIndia
22.5
FIIs
17.0
DIIs
17.4
Others
15.6
Priceperformance(%)
1M
3M
1Y
0.4
5.1 38.2
Rel.toSensex 2.9
1.8 32.3
GujaratGas
20.3
Stockmovement
3.6 52.4
IndraprasthaGas
Shares(000')
Volume(LHS)
Price(RHS)
400
6,000
300
4,000
200
2,000
100
0
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
BUY
(Rs)
8,000
Indraprastha Gas
HarshvardhanDole
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
912246464660
DeveshAgarwal
devesh.agarwal@iiflcap.com
912246464647
www.iiflcap.com
Financialsummary(Rs m)
Y/e31Mar
Revenues(Rsm)
EBITDAMargins(%)
ReportedPAT(Rsm)
EPS(Rs)
Growth(%)
IIFLvsconsensus(%)
PER(x)
ROE(%)
Debt/Equity(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Price/Book(x)
FY09A
8,528
36.0
1,725
12.3
0.8
FY10A
10,781
36.0
2,155
15.4
24.9
24.8
24.5
0.0
13.6
6.1
19.8
25.4
0.1
10.9
5.0
FY11ii
18,461
27.0
2,531
18.1
17.5
3.5
16.9
25.1
0.3
9.1
4.2
FY12ii
25,515
24.0
2,876
20.5
13.6
4.6
14.8
24.2
0.3
7.7
3.6
FY13ii
32,587
23.0
3,516
25.1
22.2
4.2
12.1
24.9
0.3
6.3
3.0
Source:Company,IIFLResearch.Priceasatcloseofbusinesson11March2011.
125
125
Company snapshot
Indraprastha Gas was incorporated in 1998 as a JV between GAIL
and Bharat Petroleum. The company later took over the Delhi gas
distribution project from GAIL. This project envisaged providing
consumers in Delhi with natural gas through a network of pipelines.
As of date, IGLs gas distribution network is spread across Delhi and
Noida & Greater Noida. The company is also setting up its network in
Ghaziabad. It supplies compressed natural gas (CNG) to the auto
sector, piped natural gas (PNG) to households and commercial
enterprises, and R-LNG (regassified LNG) to industrial users.
SWOT analysis
Weaknesses
Strengths
Opportunities
Remarks/managementdescription
Morethan30yearsexperienceintheoil&gassector.ExmemberofOilCo
SRadhakrishnan Chairman
ordinationCommitteeundertheMinistryofPetroleum.ExManagingDirectorof
BharatShell.PriorexperiencewithBPCL.
Morethan30yearsexperienceinoil&gassector.PriorexperienceinIndianOiland
RajeshVedvyas
ManagingDirector
GAILIndiaacrossprojects,marketingandoperations.
Experienceindiversefields.Currently,independentdirectorofKilburnIndustries.
ManmohanSingh Director(Commercial)
PriorexperienceinmarketingatBPCL.
Assumptions
Y/e31Mar
Volumes(mscm)
GrossSpreads(Rs/scm)
Capex(Rsbn)
FY09A
660
6.70
1.6
FY10A
782
7.75
3.4
FY11ii
969
7.97
7.0
FY12ii
1,200
8.05
6.1
FY13ii
1,461
8.15
5.7
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
126
Investment thesis
Monopoly in the high-growth Delhi market
Thanks to the regulatory pushmandatory conversion of all public
transport vehicles to compressed natural gas (CNG) from liquid fuels,
and rapid penetration of CNG-dispensing stations across Delhi
almost ~0.4m vehicles (private + public) currently ply on CNG.
Conversion of vehicles to CNG has also been spurred by attractive
pricing against traditional liquid fuels. For instance, per-km cost of
running a CNG vehicle is 63% and 23% lower than that of a
comparable passenger vehicle running on petrol or diesel,
respectively.
Running cost per km on
CNG is 63% cheaper as
compared to petrol
Figure128: CNGissoldat63%discounttopetrolonenergyequivalentterms
CNG
Petrol
Diesel
Fuelprice(Rs/litre)
58.4
37.7
Energyequivalentprice(Rs/scm)
22.1
59.4
35.3
DiscountedCNGpriceinDelhi
63%
38%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure129: CostperkmofCNGissubstantiallylowerthanthatofliquidfuels
(Rs/km)
CNG
Petrol
Diesel
Auto
0.8
2.3
Bus
8.3
10.8
Privatevehicles
1.8
4.9
2.4
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Mandatory conversion of
public transport vehicle and
private car conversion led
to higher demand for gas
historically
Privatecarconversions
2.5
2.0
Mandatoryconversion
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
FY01
FY02 FY03
FY04 FY05
FY06
FY07 FY08
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
127
Figure131: Privatecarsaccountfor60%ofCNGvehiclesinDelhi
Pvtcars
59.6%
Others
0.2%
Buses
4.0%
RTVs
1.5%
Taxis
3.5%
Three
wheelers
31.2%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
The initial cost of the CNG
kit for a taxi can be
recovered in less than three
months
Figure132: EconomicsofCNGconversion
Taxi(Petrol) Auto(Petrol)
CostofCNGkit(Rsm)
0.04
0.02
Priceofliquidfuel(DelhiRs/ltr)
58.4
58.4
Mileage/ltr(km)
12.0
25.0
Runningcostonliquidfuel(Rs/km)
4.9
2.3
MileageonCNG(km)
12.0
25.0
CostofCNG(Rs/kg)
21.5
21.5
RunningcostonCNG(Rs/km)
1.8
0.9
Dailyrunning(km)
150
75
SavingsbyoperatingonCNG(Rsm)
0.17
0.04
Payback(years)
0.2
0.4
Bus(Diesel)
0.40
37.7
3.5
10.8
3.5
21.5
6.1
200
0.34
1.2
Source:IIFLResearch
128
Deregulation of petrol
prices has increased the
cost differential will lead
to higher conversion
Deregulation
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
129
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
130
Figure133: FewplacesinDelhiarestillnotcoveredbyIGL
Source:IGL
Compressioncapacity(mnkg/day)(RHS)
300
3.5
250
3.0
2.5
200
2.0
150
1.5
100
1.0
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
0.0
FY02
FY01
0.5
FY00
50
FY99
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
131
Figure135: IGLhasthehighestCNGdispensingstationsamongitspeers
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
IGL
MGL
AdaniEnergy
GujaratGas
Replacement costs almost 2x that of IGLs setup costs
Moreover, IGL has developed its infrastructure over the past ten
years, and thus the weighted average cost of its network would be
lower than the current replacement costs. Till date, IGL has invested
close to Rs6bn in its CNG stations (implying a setup cost of
Rs26m/station) that have compression capacity of 2.9mkg/day. A
new player, we reckon, would have to spend at least 7580% more
to replicate such infrastructure. Higher setup costs would mean
either a higher breakeven point or lower RoI for any new player, if it
could match IGLs price points (see table below). This calculation
assumes that both players source gas at similar prices.
Figure136: IGLhassignificantadvantageoverthenewplayerbeyondFY12
IGL
Newentrant
InvestmentinCGD(Rsm)
10,000
17,500
Sales(mscm)
769
769
Grossmargins(Rsm)
5,961
5,961
()Fixedcosts(Rsm)
2,002
2,402
()Depreciation(Rsm)
800
1,400
EBIT(Rsm)
3,159
2,159
RoI(%)
32%
12%
Source:IIFLResearch
Restriction on installation
of compressors would
confine economies of scale
in operations
Regulations limit operational flexibility of new entrants
Regulations have been framed with an intention to eventually
introduce competitionbut in their present form, they impair the
operational flexibility of any new entrant, in our view. For instance,
while a new player can sell CNG by installing its own dispensing
stations, it is not allowed to install the compressors, and has to use
the compressors of the incumbent utility for payment of a fixed
charge determined by the regulator.
While non-installation of compressors would mean lower capital
costs, it would also restrict the scale of dispensing stations, and
perhaps curtail economies of scale in operations.
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
132
Figure137: AcompressoraccountsforathirdofthecostofaCNGstation
Civilworks
33%
Land
22%
Dispensers
11%
Compressor
34%
Source:IGL,IIFLResearch
IGL has begun its network expansion beyond NCR of Delhi to Noida,
Greater Noida, and Ghaziabad. Growth potential in these areas
remains promising, given the development of small and medium
industrial establishments, which can quickly switch over to PNG.
While industrial consumers would be the key demand drivers, CNG
and PNG would also generate healthy volume growth, given the
rapid urbanisation in these areas. By FY13, we reckon, IGL could sell
~0.8mscmd gas in these three geographiesalmost 30% of its
present sales from Delhi.
Other than this, IGL has also bid in the third round for Ludhiana and
Jalandhar (both in Punjab) held by PNGRB in July 2010. We expect
companies to bid for more cities in the future, as PNGRB expects to
authorise CGD operations in 200 cities by 2015. Any new area would
present further upside to our estimates. The company has also
increased its earmarked capex plans to Rs19bn to be spent over
FY11-13 as against Rs12bn earlier.
Noida and Greater Noida: industrial consumers drive demand
growth
IGL started its operations in Noida and Greater Noida in 2009. In
these areas, IGL has established 11 CNG stations and tied up ~3,500
PNG consumers. In addition, it has a number of industrial consumers
to whom it sells ~0.06mscmd of R-LNG. Strategically, IGL is
focussing on tying up long-term contracts with these bulk
consumers. Simultaneously, the company is developing CNG and
PNG infrastructure for other classes of consumers. From 0.05mscmd
sales as of end-FY10, IGL is aiming for sales of ~0.2mscmd in FY11,
and ~0.5mscmd by FY13.
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
133
Figure138: IGLwellpoisedtodoublegassalesbyFY15ii
Delhi
(mscm)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
FY10
NoidaandGrNoida
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Ghaziabad
FY14ii
FY15ii
Source:IIFLResearch
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
134
(mmscmd)
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:IIFLResearch
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
135
So far, IGL has sourced most of its gas requirements through the
low-priced APM gas (Administered Pricing Mechanism). Any gas
requirement beyond APM sources will be bought at market prices,
which would affect margins. That said, note that the gap between
market and APM prices has narrowed considerably after the 100%
increase in APM gas prices (US$4.2/mmbtu).
Figure140: Regionalpeercomparison
GujaratGas
PetronasGas
XinaoGas
TokyoGas
TowngasChinaCoLtd
ShenzhenGasCorp
NorthwestNaturalGas
SouthJerseyIndus
Average
IndraprasthaGas
MarketCap
(US$m)
1,146
7,500
3,290
11,676
1,233
2,228
1,253
73,757
943
P/E
CY10/FY11
20.1
15.5
23.7
13.5
22.7
45.8
17.3
20.2
22.3
16.9
RoE
CY11/FY12
17.1
15.5
19.0
13.8
18.8
35.0
16.6
17.6
19.2
14.8
CY10/FY11
28%
17%
18%
8%
5%
10%
10%
14%
30%
P/B
CY11/FY12
27%
17%
19%
8%
6%
12%
10%
14%
29%
CY10/FY11
5.6
2.7
4.2
1.1
1.2
4.7
1.8
2.9
3.0
5.0
CY11/FY12
4.6
2.6
3.6
1.1
1.1
4.2
1.7
2.5
2.7
4.2
Source:Bloomberg,IIFLResearch;Priceasof11March2011
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
136
Significant increase in
crude prices would
adversely affect IGLs gross
margins
Source:IIFLResearch
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
137
Financial summary
Incomestatementsummary(Rs m)
Other geographies have
started to contribute to
sales from FY11ii onwards
Y/e31Mar
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Interestincome
Interestexpense
Profitbeforetax
Taxes
Netprofit
FY09A
8,528
3,043
2,369
243
23
2,589
864
1,725
FY10A
10,781
3,867
3,092
182
30
3,244
1,090
2,155
FY11ii
18,461
4,983
3,879
61
162
3,778
1,247
2,531
FY12ii
25,515
6,067
4,580
33
320
4,293
1,417
2,876
FY13ii
32,587
7,438
5,619
31
403
5,247
1,732
3,516
FY09A
2,589
674
893
175
30
2,224
1,720
504
47
197
655
30
63
FY10A
3,244
775
1,060
272
30
3,201
3,904
703
872
287
797
92
249
FY11ii
3,778
1,104
1,247
675
0
2,960
5,160
2,200
0
2,500
936
0
636
FY12ii
4,293
1,487
1,417
390
0
3,973
4,289
315
0
1,000
1,064
0
379
FY13ii
5,247
1,819
1,732
679
0
4,655
3,906
749
0
850
1,300
0
299
FY09A
1,462
319
237
574
5,211
1,042
8,845
857
679
265
7,043
8,845
FY10A
1,212
335
278
747
8,340
170
11,083
1,262
776
552
8,493
11,083
FY11ii
576
1,047
523
1,486
12,396
170
16,199
2,123
936
3,052
10,088
16,199
FY12ii
197
1,608
723
2,054
15,198
170
19,950
2,934
1,064
4,052
11,900
19,950
FY13ii
496
2,567
924
2,623
17,285
170
24,065
3,748
1,300
4,902
14,115
24,065
FY09A
20.8
0.5
2.6
35.7
27.8
20.2
33.4
17.0
24.5
19.5
FY10A
26.4
27.1
30.5
35.9
28.7
20.0
33.6
7.8
25.4
19.4
FY11ii
71.2
28.9
25.4
27.0
21.0
13.7
33.0
24.5
25.1
15.6
FY12ii
38.2
21.7
18.1
23.8
17.9
11.3
33.0
32.4
24.2
14.4
FY13ii
27.7
22.6
22.7
22.8
17.2
10.8
33.0
31.2
24.9
14.6
Cashflowsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Profitbeforetax
Depr.&amortization
Taxpaid
Workingcapital
Otheroperatingitems
Operatingcashflow
Capitalexpenditure
Freecashflow
Investments
Debtfinancing/disposal
Dividendspaid
Otheritems
Netchangeincash
Balancesheetsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Cash&equivalents
Sundrydebtors
Inventoriestrade
Othercurrentassets
Fixedassets
Othertermassets
Totalassets
Sundrycreditors
Othercurrentliabs
Longtermdebt/CBs
Networth
Totalliabs&equity
Ratioanalysis
ROE maintained at
24-25%
Y/e31Mar
Revenuegrowth(%)
OpEbitdagrowth(%)
OpEbitgrowth(%)
OpEbitdamargin(%)
OpEbitmargin(%)
Netprofitmargin(%)
Taxrate(%)
Netdebt/equity(%)
Returnonequity(%)
Returnonassets(%)
Source: Company data, IIFL Research
harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
138
139
Rs136
CMP
Rs170(25%)
Target12m
Marketcap(US$m)
1,525
Bloomberg
PIDIIN
Sector
Midcaps
14March2011
52WkHigh/Low(Rs)
160/105
Shareso/s(m)
506
Dailyvolume(US$m)
0.7
DividendyieldFY11ii(%)
1.6
Freefloat(%)
29.4
Shareholdingpattern(%)
Parekhfamily
70.6
FIIs
10.3
DIIs
8.0
Others
Priceperformance(%)
1M
3M
PidiliteIndustries
4.1
8.2 15.8
Rel.toSensex
Stockmovement
1.6
1.3 10.0
Shares(000')
11.2
Volume(LHS)
Price(RHS)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1Y
100
50
Mar10
Apr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
SantanuChakrabarti
santanu@iiflcap.com
912246464667
www.iiflcap.com
Niche innovator
Pidilite Industries is a niche consumer and specialty
chemicals player in India. It has pioneered multiple brands of
national top-of-the-mind recall like Fevicol and M-Seal.
Construction chemicals (primarily retail consumption) is the
companys new growth driver, as legacy strengths remain in
place for now mature categories like adhesives and sealants.
This should drive ~16% revenue CAGR leading to 20.3% EPS
CAGR over FY10-13ii. The stock is valued at 17.9x FY12ii P/E
and offers 12-month upside of 25%. We recommend BUY.
Consumer products remain key driver: Of the three businesses
that are part of the consumer and bazaars pie (78% of revenues),
the construction chemicals business, with brands such as Dr Fixit and
Roff (~20% of revenues), has registered over 25% revenue CAGR in
the past five years. We expect this momentum to sustain. The core
adhesive business is a mature staple (50% of revenues), which has a
dominant market share (we expect 10-12% steady-state growth).
Profitability supported by pricing power: Pidilite enjoys a strong
market position as the de facto price setter in 65-70% of the
revenue pie. Our sensitivity analysis reveals that even if estimates of
raw-material price inflation surprise on the upside by 12%, Pidilite
can be earnings neutral by increasing product prices by 7%. We see
no demand destruction for price increases up to the low teens.
(Rs)
150
BUY
200
Pidilite Industries
FY09A
19,863
10.6
1,101
1,105
2.2
28.4
FY10A
21,916
17.2
2,702
2,979
5.3
145.4
62.7
16.7
0.9
34.8
9.9
25.5
34.5
0.5
19.4
7.9
FY11ii
25,969
18.8
3,260
3,260
6.3
17.3
1.9
21.8
31.3
0.3
14.8
5.9
FY12ii
30,049
19.6
3,974
3,974
7.6
21.9
6.8
17.9
29.8
0.3
12.2
4.9
FY13ii
34,787
20.3
4,801
4,801
9.2
20.8
5.7
14.8
30.1
0.2
9.9
4.1
Source:Company,IIFLResearch.Priceasatcloseofbusinesson11March2011.
139
Company snapshot
Promoted by the Parekh family in 1959, Pidilite is one of the most
innovative companies in the consumer space in India. The companys
product range includes adhesives and sealants, construction and
paint chemicals, automotive chemicals, art materials, industrial
adhesives, industrial and textile resins, and organic pigments &
preparations. Most of these products have been developed in-house,
and two-thirds of the companys sales come from segments it has
pioneered in India. The company has 13 overseas subsidiaries (four
direct and nine step-down), including those with significant sales and
manufacturing operations in the USA, Brazil, Thailand and Dubai.
These comprise about 12% of consolidated net sales. The company
has two main areas of operationconsumer products and speciality
industry chemicals. As per FY10 data, consumer products form
78.3% of Pidilites sales consisting of adhesives, construction and
plant chemicals and art materials. Pidilites competitive advantage
lies in its ability to constantly innovate around unmet consumer
needs in specific niches and create sustainable brands in so-called
commodity categories.
Revenuesgrowingsteadily
Revenuebreakupstandalone2010
25,000
IndustrialsResins
8%
(Rsm)
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Adhesives&
Sealants
49%
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
FY02
FY01
Industrials
Adhesives
8%
OrganicPigments
6%
Others(VAM)
1%
Artmaterials
10%
Construction
chemicals
18%
Management
Name
Designation
Remarks/managementdescription
PromoterservingasNonExecutiveChairmansince1972.Hasadegreeinlaw
andseniormanagementexperienceofover60years.
BKParekh
Chairman
MBParekh
MD&ExecutiveDirector
ChemicalengineerwithBChemEngg(Bom),MSChemEngg.(USA).Hasabout
38yearsofexperience.
Assumptions
Y/e31Mar
Revenuegrowth(%)
Grossmargin(%)
PersonnelExpenses/Sales(%)
Advertisingexpenses/Sales(%)
EBITDAmargin(%)
Taxrate(%)
NWC(daysofsales)
Payoutratio(%)
Revenuegrowth(%)
FY09A
16.3
41.3
11.1
2.9
10.6
13.1
60
40.2
16.3
FY10A
10.3
48.0
11.5
3.3
17.2
13.1
38
28.1
10.3
FY11ii
18.5
47.5
11.0
3.5
18.8
23.0
50
35.0
18.5
FY12ii
15.7
47.0
11.0
3.5
19.6
25.0
50
35.0
15.7
FY13ii
15.8
46.5
11.0
3.5
20.3
26.0
50
35.0
15.8
Source:Companydata,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
140
Construction/PaintChemicals
IndustrialResins
OrganicPigments&Preparations
Others(VAM)
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch.Note:NumberstillFY09aregrossrevenues,whileFY10
numbersarenetrevenuesandhenceFY10growthappearslowerthanactual.
Adhesives dominant in all
regional micro markets
Source:Company
santanu@iiflcap.com
141
Figure144: Fevicol,Fevikwik&MSeal
Source:Company
Figure145: Adhesivesandsealantssegmentproductmap
Category
Keyproducts
Whiteglue,paperglue,gluesticks,instantadhesive,epoxyputty,epoxy
adhesive,maintenancespray,PVCinsulationtape.
Adhesives&
sealants
(Keybrands
Fevicol,Fevikwik,
MSeal)
Enduse/segment
Home,schoolandoffice
Polyvinylacetatewhiteglueforjoiningwood,plywood,particleboard,etc;
Woodworking
contactadhesiveforlaminateandveneerpasting.
Contactadhesiveforupholsteryandflooring,whiteglueforwallpaperand
Upholsteryandflooring
parquetflooring.
Polyurethanebasedadhesives,rubberbasedadhesive.
Footwear
Siliconesealants,epoxyputty,epoxyadhesive,cyanoacrylateadhesives,
PVCinsulationtape,maintenancespray.
Automotiveaftermarket,
plumbing
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
142
Figure146: Constructionandspecialtychemicalssegmentproductmap
Category
Keyproducts
Integralwaterproofingcompound,waterproofingcoatings,waterproofing
membranes.
Crackfillers,microconcrete,rustremover,repairmortars,epoxybonding
Adhesives,additive,tilegrouts.
Constructionand Exteriorcoatings,protectivecoatings,heatreductioncoatings,hygienic
paintchemicals coatings.
(KeybrandsDr Waterreducingandretarding,plasticizersandaccelerator.
Fixit,Roff,Cyclo) Floorhardener,selflevellingcompound,epoxies.
Polysulphides,silicones,acrylicandpolyurethanesealants.
Highstrength,nonshrinkfreeflowgrouts.
Limebinders,stainers/colourants,distempers,emulsionpaints.
Woodpreservatives,fillers,stainsandfinishes.
Enduse/segment
Waterproofing
Repairmaterials
Tilefixingsolutions
Coating
Admixtures
Flooring
Sealants
Grouts
Interiorcoatingsandwall
Woodfinishes
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure147: DrFixitproducts(constructionchemicals)
Dr Fixit is heavily
advertised now
Source:Company
Figure148: ProductmapPidilite
Category
Keyproducts
Artmaterials
Temperacolours,crayons,oilpastels,chalks,markers,pencils,posterpaints,
watercolours,mouldingclay,glitterpaints,sculptingmaterial,brushes.
(Keybrands
SargentArt,
Fabriccolours,dimensionalcolours,glasscolours,ceramiccolours,silkcolours,
HobbyIdeas)
decoupageglue,mouldingputty,brushes,hobbykits,hobbybooks.
Acryliccolours,oilcolours,watercolours,brushes,canvas.
Enduse/segment
Education
Hobby
Artstudentsandartists
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
143
Figure149: Art&stationeryproducts
Source:Company
Specialty industry
chemicals is a niche
commodity play
FY10
17,435
4,653
176
22,264
FY10
78.3
20.9
0.8
100.0
FY10
8.2
11.4
82.9
4.4
FY11ii
20,573
5,211
185
25,969
FY11ii
79.2
20.1
0.7
100.0
FY11ii
18.0
12.0
5.0
16.6
FY12ii
FY13ii
24,071
5,784
194
30,049
28,163
6,421
204
34,787
FY12ii
FY13ii
80.1
19.2
0.6
100.0
81.0
18.5
0.6
100.0
FY12ii
FY13ii
17.0
11.0
5.0
15.7
17.0
11.0
5.0
15.8
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
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Figure151: Acquisitions
Name
Year
PulvitecdoBrasil
Industriae
Commerciode
FY08
ColaseAdesivos
Limitada
Hardwood&
FY08
WaudMfg
Company
SargentArt
FY07
CycloLLC
FY07
PagelConcrete
Technologies
FY07
BamcoLtd,
Thailand
FY06
JupiterChemicals
FY06
LLC
Details
Engagedinthebusinessofadhesives,sealantsandconstructionchemicals;thiscompanyandits
manufacturingplantarelocatedinSauPaulo,Brazilandthebusinesshasannualsalesof~Rs750m.
ThisacquisitionwillhelpPidiliteenterhighpotentialLatinAmericanmarketofadhesivesand
sealants.ThecostofacquisitionwasaroundRs531m.
TheacquiredassetsincludebrandslikeHoldtite,RustoleneandLeakgaurd,whichhaveahealthy
marketshareintheirrespectivesegments.ThetotalsalesofthebusinessareRs150m.Acquisition
costwasRs118m.
SargentArthasbeenmanufacturingandsellingqualityartmaterialsintheeducationalmarketin
USAforover50years.Theproductrangeincludestemperacolours,acryliccolours,watercolours,
crayons.
CyclohasbeensellingautomotivechemicalsinUSAandinternationalmarketforover50years.The
productrangeincludesmaintenancechemicals,performancechemicalsandappearancechemicals
fortheautomotivesegment.
IndiancompanywithtechnicalandfinancialcollaborationofPagelSpezialbentonGMBH,and
internationallyrenownedbrandforindustrialgroutsandrepairmortars.Pidiliteacquired75%equity
stakeinthiscompanyatacostofRs6.4mandloancontributionofRs3.5m.
Bamcoisamanufacturerofspecialitybitumenbasedwaterproofingproductsandhad,untilthen,
marketeditsproductsinThailand,Indonesia,MalaysiaandSingapore.TurnoverofRs86mon
acquisition.
PidiliteMiddleEastLtd,thecompany'swhollyownedoffshoresubsidiaryintheJebelAliFreeZonein
Dubai,acquireda49%stakeinJupiterChemicalsLLC.JupiterChemicalsmanufacturedreflective
coatings,tileadhesivesandplasters,andissupposedtohelpgrowthecompany'sbusinessinthe
highpotentialMiddleEastmarket.
TristarColman/
Fineartbrands,
businessand
someassets
FY06
FineArtisamarketleaderinbrushesfordrawingandpaintingwhileTristarColmanisawellknown
brandofcanvasandstudentartcolours.Theacquisitionstrengthensthecompanysartmaterials
portfolioandwillhelpincreasesalesintheschoolandartistsegments.
Roff(brand)
FY05
RoffhasbeenastrongconstructionchemicalsbrandinIndiaforover18years.Thisacquisition(for
Rs137.7m)givesitaccesstobothRoff'sproductrangeanddistributionnetwork,aswellastoalarge
numberoftrainedandloyalapplicators.
ChemsonAsiaPte
FY05
Ltd
Amanufacturerofwaterproofingproductsandexteriorpaints,inJanuary2005.Chemsonhada
manufacturingbaseinSingapore,fromwhereitmarketedproductsacrosstheislandstate,
Indonesia,ThailandandMalaysia.ConsiderationofSGD437,500.
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Significant overseas
presence
santanu@iiflcap.com
145
Competitivelandscape
Fevicol(~25%ofrevenues)
Adhesives
~50% MSeal
andsealants
Otheradhesivederivative
productslikeFevikwik
Constructionchemicals(Dr
Construction
Fixit)
andspecialty ~20%
chemicals
Autochemicals
Artproducts
~8%
Specialty
industrial
chemicals
~22%
Pricing
power
Dominanttotheextentofbeingsynonymouswithwhiteglue.
ThereisregionalcompetitionlikeDendrite,butthecompany
takesritual5%priceincreasesannuallyevenwhenraw
materialpricesarestable.
High
Thereiscompetitionfromsimilarproducts,butitistheonly
brandwithwidespreadconsumerrecognition.
High
Widespreaddistributionandinnovativeadvertisinghasmade
theseproductswidelyacceptedinhouseholds.Asthereareno
topofthemindreplacementswiththeconsumer,positioning
remainsprettyunique.
High
With70%ofbusinessbeingretailconsumers,therecent
awarenesscampaignsagainmakeittheonlyofferinginits
spacewithconsumermindshare.
High
ThePidilitebrandslikeCycloarenotasuniquetothe
consumeraspreviouscategories.
Extremelycompetitivemarket.Pidiliteisnotatalldominant.
Commodityindustrialproductsbutveryfewlocal
manufacturers.Thecustomersandthemanufacturerwork
closelyandlargemarginhikesorsqueezesdonothappen.
Medium
Low
Lowto
Medium
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
146
Figure153: 3QFY11(consolidated)
Rsm
3QFY10
NetSales
5,274
COGS
2,711
Totalcost
4,354
GrossProfit
2,563
GrossMargin(%)
48.6%
OpEbitda
920
EbitdaMargin
17.4%
Depreciation
173
OpEbit
747
Otherincome
70
Interestexpense
78
PBT
738
Taxrate
16%
APATbeforeminorityinterest
622
Minorityinterest
1
APATafterminorityinterest
623
ExtraordinaryItems
21
ReportedPAT
644
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
VAM prices have hardened over the last quarter. If a bullish outlook
on crude were to sustain, VAM prices could go up further. However,
in the current quarter so far the prices seem to have stabilised.
Feedstock (ethylene) prices have hardened and manufacturers may
look at price increases going forward.
santanu@iiflcap.com
147
Figure155: VAMprices
(US$/tonne)
1,000
VAM(SouthAsia)
960
920
880
840
800
760
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Plastic packing material is
expected to get more
expensive if crude prices
continue to harden
PVC
56.0
54.0
52.0
50.0
48.0
46.0
Mar11
Feb11
Jan11
Dec10
Nov10
Oct10
Sep10
Aug10
Jul10
Jun10
May10
Apr10
44.0
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure157: HDPEprices
Jan11
Dec10
Nov10
Oct10
Sep10
Aug10
Jun10
May10
Jul10
HDPE(Rs/kg)
78.0
77.0
76.0
75.0
74.0
73.0
72.0
71.0
70.0
Apr10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
148
Productprice
increases
Rawmaterialpriceinflation
4%
6%
8%
10%
7.1
6.6
6.2
5.7
7.8
7.4
6.9
6.5
8.6
8.1
7.7
7.2
9.3
8.9
8.4
7.9
10.0
9.6
9.1
8.7
10.8
10.3
9.9
9.4
2%
7.5
8.3
9.0
9.8
10.5
11.2
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
12%
5.3
6.0
6.7
7.5
8.2
9.0
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
FY12ii
FY11ii
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
FY02
0.0
FY01
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
149
Figure160: EBITDAmarginssettoimprove
OpEBITDAMargin(%)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
FY13ii
FY12ii
FY11ii
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
FY02
0.0
FY01
Margins to improve on
better operating efficiencies
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
150
Figure161: Pidiliteinnovationmodel
In-house R&D
Identification
of unmet
consumer
needs
Concept
and
market
testing
Product
conceptuali
sation
Branding
through topclass
advertising
Establishment
as a highmargin noncommodity
Acquired
technologies
Source:IIFLResearch
Figure162: Capexvsdepreciation
(Rsm)
Capex
Depreciation
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
151
Figure163: Capexschedule
(Rsm)
TotalCapex
Elastomercapex
VAMdemergerassetacquisition
Acquisitions
Otherfixedassets
FY08
2,484
1,053
390
118
900
FY09
1,734
1,120
614
FY13ii
1,600
500
1,100
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure164: FY09theonlyblip
RoACE(%)
RoAE(%)
FY13ii
FY12ii
FY11ii
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
FY02
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure165: Payoutshavealwaysbeenhealthy
(%)
Payoutratio
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
FY02
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
152
~US$150matfull
utilization
US$60matfull
utilization
Ourassumption
Rs2.5bn
NotbyFY13
19,000TPA
Norevenues
assumedbyustill
FY13
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Elastomer project
uncertainties remain
santanu@iiflcap.com
153
Figure168: Debtequitytofall
GrossDebtEquityratio
NetDebtEquityratio
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
FY13ii
FY12ii
FY11ii
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
FY02
FY01
0.2
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Indebtedness to fall
Figure169: Interestcoveragetoincrease
(x)
30.0
EBIT/Interest
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11ii
FY12ii
FY13ii
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
santanu@iiflcap.com
154
Figure170: FCCBdetails
Item
OriginalvalueofBondsissued(inUS$m)
Less:Bondsboughtback(inUS$m)
OutstandingvalueofBond(inUS$m)
RateofExchange(Re/US$)
ValueofSharestobeissued(inRsm)
Conversionpriceafterreset(Rs)
PotentialAdditionalSharesonaccountofconversion
NumberofEquityShares
Totalnumberofdilutedequityshares
Extentofdilution(%)
40.0
2.8
37.2
39.37
1,465
102.42
14,300,288
506,134,612
520,434,900
2.83
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Valuations competitive
given peer set
PER(FY11
PER EarningsCAGR
Dividend
/CY10) (FY12/CY11)
(FY1012ii) Yield(FY10)
ROE
(FY11)
HindustanUnilever
ITC
Nestle
Colgate
Dabur
GodrejConsumer
Marico
Emami
GSKConsumer
Britannia
28.2
26.8
44.8
28.7
29.7
24.5
29.1
23.3
29.0
29.5
24.1
21.8
36.8
25.2
24.0
18.6
23.3
18.3
24.2
23.9
9.3%
21.5%
20.8%
3.9%
18.4%
32.1%
19.2%
31.7%
24.2%
8.3%
2.9%
1.6%
1.5%
2.4%
1.7%
1.8%
0.6%
0.9%
1.0%
1.6%
72.3
30.3
96.0
94.1
46.0
29.0
31.1
30.6
26.5
29.7
Average
28.2
24.1
18.9%
1.6%
45.1
Pidilite
21.8
17.9
19.6%
1.6%
31.3
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
This is also evidenced by the 1-year forward PE, which is near the
middle of its historical trading band.
santanu@iiflcap.com
155
Figure172: 1yearforwardP/E
Apr04
Jul04
Oct04
Jan05
Apr05
Jul05
Oct05
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
1yrFwdPE
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Key risks
Elastomer project is the
biggest investment risk, in
our view
santanu@iiflcap.com
156
Appendix
Enterprising India 2: Excerpts from IIFLs interview
with M B Parekh, MD, Pidilite Industries
A generation of Indians has been charmed by TV and print
advertisements of the white-glue brand Fevicol. M B Parekh is at the
helm of affairs of the consumer specialty-chemicals company Pidilite,
which owns and markets Fevicol. From an industrial-pigments player
to a consumer company with multiple top-of-the-mind brands, its
been a long and fulfilling journey.
M B Parekh
santanu@iiflcap.com
157
the line, this business could form a fairly big component of Pidilites
overall revenues, and emerge as a key growth driver.
There is another very strong product rangethe industrial
maintenance business. Just as we have products like M-Seal and
Fevikwik in consumer maintenance, there are a range of products
possible for industrial maintenance too. These products have
enormous potential, given the thousands of small companies across
the country. Industrial maintenance is more a sundry retail sort of
business that is not in the B2B mould at all. This business runs
through distributors who are located in industrial areas and sell to a
large number of small units. It falls under the umbrella of MRO
(maintenance repair overall), covering both industrial and
automotive. We acquired a company called Cyclo in the USan old
brand but a very small companywith no significant presence in the
US, but selling to 40-50 countries from there, with annual revenues
of US$12m14m. This business, targeting the automotive
aftermarket segment, can now also come under the MRO umbrella.
Thirdly, we have launched the Hobby Ideas retail store chaina pilot
project to assess the segments potential, including that in overseas
markets.
In short, a number of business that are now small, could grow
substantially 510 years down the line, and keep our growth
momentum going.
What are your thoughts on inorganic growth options? How do
you assess the suitability of potential takeover targets?
We are not keen on acquisition for the sake of numbers. Unlike some
companies who use acquisitions as one of the means to meet their
revenue or volume targets, we have no compelling need to go for big
acquisitions for the sake of numbers. If there is a good opportunity
to make meaningful progress in some segment or geography, we
would be open to it, but not for the sake of delivering inflated
numbers.
Among the many initiatives that you have undertaken, what
would you call your biggest mistake?
There have been many mistakes, but more importantly, they were
learning opportunities. We are generally shy of spelling out
projections like five-year targets. That makes it much easier for us to
accept mistakes, which are inevitable when you try new things.
When we make an endeavour, we are fully aware that we need to be
able to accept failure and modify or pull back. When I said we work
iteratively, I meant that many such small efforts are ongoing; we
avoid big leaps of faith.
santanu@iiflcap.com
158
Financial summary
Incomestatementsummary(Rs m)
Y/e31Mar
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Interestexpense
Othersitems
Profitbeforetax
Taxexpense
Extraordinaryitems
NetProfit
FY09A
19,863
2,104
1,516
361
119
1,275
167
4
1,105
FY10A
21,916
3,770
3,104
329
335
3,111
408
276
2,979
FY11ii
25,969
4,881
4,150
319
436
4,266
981
0
3,260
FY12ii
30,049
5,893
5,061
290
566
5,338
1,335
0
3,974
FY13ii
34,787
7,065
6,154
270
651
6,535
1,699
0
4,801
FY09A
1,516
588
167
186
7
2,117
2,251
135
76
221
825
443
18
122
FY10A
3,104
666
408
977
1
4,338
724
3,614
446
2,424
1,402
759
17
1,428
FY11ii
4,150
732
981
1,249
25
2,626
1,900
726
1,303
1,478
530
1,141
100
2,051
FY12ii
5,061
832
1,335
559
30
3,970
2,000
1,970
206
0
249
1,391
100
500
FY13ii
6,154
912
1,699
649
35
4,682
1,600
3,082
251
0
133
1,680
100
1,500
FY09A
1,601
2,876
2,798
1,011
8,331
254
16,871
3,401
6,089
434
7
6,941
16,871
FY10A
449
2,959
2,979
1,046
8,390
2,678
18,499
4,675
4,686
417
2
8,719
18,499
FY11ii
2,500
3,557
3,913
1,350
9,558
1,200
22,078
5,263
4,156
517
27
12,116
22,078
FY12ii
3,000
4,116
4,528
1,600
10,726
1,200
25,170
6,128
3,907
617
57
14,462
25,170
FY13ii
4,500
4,765
5,242
1,900
11,414
1,200
29,022
7,142
3,774
717
92
17,297
29,022
FY09A
16.3
12.8
22.4
10.6
7.6
5.5
40.2
13.1
64.7
16.7
6.9
FY10A
10.3
79.1
104.7
17.2
14.2
12.3
28.1
13.1
48.6
34.5
15.3
FY11ii
18.5
29.5
33.7
18.8
16.0
12.6
35.0
23.0
13.7
31.3
16.1
FY12ii
15.7
20.7
22.0
19.6
16.8
13.2
35.0
25.0
6.3
29.8
16.8
FY13ii
15.8
19.9
21.6
20.3
17.7
13.8
35.0
26.0
4.2
30.1
17.7
Cashflowsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
EBIT
Depreciation&Amortization
Taxpaid
Workingcapitalchange
Otheroperatingitems
OperatingCashflow
Capitalexpenditure
Freecashflow
Equityraised
Investments
Debtfinancing/disposal
Dividendspaid
Otheritems
NetchangeinCash&cashequivalents
Balancesheetsummary(Rsm)
Y/e31Mar
Cash&cashequivalents
Sundrydebtors
TradeInventories
Othercurrentassets
Fixedassets
Otherassets
Totalassets
Sundrycreditors
Longtermdebt/Convertibles
Otherlongtermliabilities
Minorities/otherEquity
Networth
Totalliabilities&equity
Ratioanalysis
Strong traction in
revenues
Healthy capital
return ratios
Y/e31Mar
Salesgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAgrowth(%)
CoreEBITgrowth(%)
CoreEBITDAmargin(%)
CoreEBITmargin(%)
Netprofitmargin(%)
Dividendpayoutratio(%)
Taxrate(%)
NetDebt/Equity(%)
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
Source: Company data, IIFL Research
santanu@iiflcap.com
159
NOTES
santanu@iiflcap.com
160
India - Mid-caps
Institutional Equities
ZZZLLFDSFRP
China - Property
Caveat Enter
1Q2011
IIFL - India
India Infoline Ltd
9th Floor, IIFL Centre,
Kamala City, Senapati Bapat Marg,
Lower Parel (W),
Mumbai - 400013
Tel +91-22-4646-4600
Fax +91-22-4646-4700
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IIFL Securities Pte Ltd,
20, Collyer Quay,
#21-03,
Tung Centre,
Singapore - 049319
Tel +65-6511-6160
Fax +65-6224-0650
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IIFL Inc.
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34th Floor,
New York,
NY 10036
Tel +1-212-221-6800
Fax +1-212-221-6818