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7,627
CMP: INR327
TP: INR409
Upgrade to Buy
JSP IN
914.9
350/182
27/3/11
M.Cap. (INR b)
298.9
M.Cap. (USD b)
5.0
76.7
93.5 104.5
Adj PAT
24.7
30.2
35.9
EPS (INR)
26.9
33.0
39.2
11.5
22.6
18.6
10.4
11.6
12.3
Growth (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
8.7
10.1
10.6
12.1
9.9
8.3
P/BV (x)
1.2
1.1
1.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.7
7.5
6.8
P/E (x)
60.4
59.7
59.1
4.7
6.8
22.8
12.8
22.6
11.6
Foreign
Others
23.1
12.3
Return on capital employed has hit bottom: Jindal Steel and Power (JSP)
has invested heavily in steel, power projects in India and mining assets
overseas. Over four years, a total of INR350-400b has been invested in
setting up a new 12mtpa steel plant Greenfield site (capacity of 1.5mtpa in
phase I) at Angul and Brown field expansion of Jindal Powers capacity by
2,400mw. Further, JSP has invested monies overseas in 2mtpa gas-based
steel plant in Oman and coking coal assets of Gujarat NRE in Australia.
RoCE (pre-tax) has fallen from a peak of 32.8% in FY09 to 7.9% in FY14 due
to long gestation period of these projects. We expect RoCE to start
improving now.
EBITDA to post CAGR of 20% over FY14-17E: JSP has recently
commissioned 1.5mtpa Angul steel plant with associated facilities during
January-May 2014. The 2,400mw (T2) project at Tamnar has already
commissioned three units of 600mw each by end-FY14. Oman HBI unit has
been forward integrated in billet making recently. Thus, INR300-320b of
capex is now put into operation. In spite of uncertainties, we expect
consolidated EBITDA to clock a CAGR of 20% over FY14-17E. Uncertainties
on sourcing coal, selling power and steel have clouded near term earnings
outlook. However, each of these problems is surmountable with time and
positive political will. We expect a favorable resolution.
Stock trades at discount to intrinsic value: We review the model and
introduced FY17 estimates. We roll over the target price on FY16 estimates.
We believe the stock is trading at significant discount to its intrinsic value.
We have used three alternative approaches to value the stock: (1) SOTP
methodology yields a target price of INR409/share based on FY16E 6.5x
EV/EBITDA for steel business and DCF for Jindal Power, (2) P/BV(x) has hit
the bottom along with RoE. On factoring moderate re-rating of P/BV(x) and
expected growth in book value, the stock should be trading at an average of
INR399 during FY16 and (3) the replacement cost yields a target price of
INR410/share, not counting the value of mines and opportunity cost.
Upgrading the stock to Buy: JSP is now likely to derive benefit from the
INR350b invested over four years. Cash flows will see significant boost on
the back of 20% CAGR in EBITDA. With the 12mtpa Greenfield Angul site
under its belt, company is now well set to grow steel capacity manifold over
next 5-10 years with much lower execution risk. Proximity to the iron ore
mining region in Odisha will be a key advantage. We expect that power
business too will start growing on de-bottlenecking of transmission
infrastructure and reforms in power distribution and coal production. We
upgrade JSP to a Buy, with a target price of INR409, 25% upside. Utkal B1
coal mine will drive another ~10% upside.
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net sales
Steel segment
Standalone
Steel sales (kt)
Pellet sales (kt)
Shadeed
HBI (kt) production
Wollongong (GNM)
Coking coal (kt)
Others
Jindal power
Sales (Mkwh)
EBITDA
Steel segment
Standalone
EBITDA/t of steel
Shadeed
EBITDA/t of HBI
Wollongong (GNM)
EBITDA/t of coal
Others
Jindal power
EBITDA (INR/kwh)
FY12
182,086
151,683
133,340
2,385
1,995
27,961
1,200
FY13
198,068
172,971
149,547
2,843
2,112
29,012
1,520
FY14
200,040
174,839
145,440
2,935
2,035
34,580
1,468
-9,618
30,404
7,750
68,868
46,055
42,297
17,733
3,524
2,936
-5,588
25,097
7,411
65,685
50,614
45,126
15,872
4,903
3,226
-5,180
25,201
7,984
60,764
42,943
43,123
14,690
3,790
2,581
235
22,813
2.9
585
15,071
2.0
-3,970
17,821
2.2
11 June 2014
FY15E
248,477
205,706
168,829
3,324
3,561
37,740
1,500
2,317
412
-3,180
42,771
11,955
76,674
54,791
47,205
14,202
7,688
5,125
1,868
-1,970
21,882
1.8
FY16E
296,778
232,960
190,809
3,852
4,095
40,860
1,500
4,471
1,175
-3,180
63,818
16,782
93,512
61,594
52,268
13,570
8,356
5,571
2,940
2,503
-1,970
31,919
1.9
FY17E
336,092
248,452
203,336
4,328
3,132
40,860
1,500
7,436
1,720
-3,180
87,641
24,603
104,478
64,962
54,217
12,526
8,301
5,534
4,414
2,567
-1,970
39,516
1.6
(INR Million)
Remarks
assumed steel prices are stable
CAGR growth of 12% over FY14-17
Angul driving steel volumes at 14%cagr
Pellet capacity doubled to 9mtpa in FY15
Jindal Powers T2 has already signed the PPA for 400mw with Tamil Nadu (TN).
T2 is running only one unit of 600mw at 50-60% PLF. Nearly 150mw of power
sales are already flowing to TN on a long term PPA basis. The volumes will
increase to 400mw by August 2014 as the transmission bottlenecks are
addressed. We believe T2 will be able to sell 4b kwh in FY15, 8.8b kwh in FY16
and 16.6b kwh in FY17. There may be some slips if there are delays in power
sector reforms and/or delay in demand pick-up or in rectifying infrastructure
bottlenecks. However, NPV of JPL is less sensitive to some delays.
Jindal power
Angul Phase 2
150
77
140
32
15
3
FY05
11
FY06
27
9
FY07
21
7
FY08
20
23
9
23
64
71
FY09
FY10
FY11
105
115
103
70
FY13
16
13
16
9
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
33
FY12
80
(INR Million)
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
46,055
50,614
42,943
54,791
6.5
356,144
61,594
6.5
400,361
64,962
6.5
422,254
259,198
264,037
264,084
76,674
615,342
371,874
122,771
93,512
664,398
399,607
109,171
104,478
686,339
410,800
165,171
366,239
400
373,962
409
445
440,709
482
536
68,868
65,685
60,764
169,416
136,520
244,180
192,303
352,146
252,328
11 June 2014
Remarks
Excluding Jindal Power (JPL)
We value the steel business at EV/EBITDA of 6.5x and the power business on PV
(present value) of FCFF (future cash flow to firm) discounted at WACC of 10.1%
(cost of equity at 15% and pre tax cost of debt at 10%).
Thus, we arrive at a SOTP of INR409/share based on FY16E.
If Utkal B1 coal becomes operational by end-FY15, the SOTP will be raised to
INR445/share on FY16 basis and INR536/share on FY17 basis.
27.2
FY07
42.3
33.7
31.1
26.5
32.8
16.5
20.2
27.5
21.3
19.9
FY08
RoCE (%)
FY09
FY10
17.2
FY11
FY12
12.3
FY13
13.8
12.3
12.1
12.8
7.9
FY14
8.8
10.1
10.5
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
The P/BV ratio has closely tracked RoE. There has been significant de-rating along
with falling RoE. We believe RoE has hit the bottom and is likely to improve
gradually as new projects start to generate cash flows.
We expect P/BV ratio to get
re-rated as RoE has already
hit the bottom
35.030.5
30.0
7.0
6.0
25.2
25.0
15.0
5.0
17.7
20.0 5.1
3.3
10.0
0.0
FY11
FY12
3.0
2.0
2.0
5.0
4.0
12.3
11.6
10.4
10.2
1.1
FY14
FY13
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.5
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
0.0
With a combination of growing book value and modest re-rating of P/BV ratio, we
expect the stock to trade at an average price of INR399 during FY16.
Expect stock to trade above
INR399 in FY16
675
563
553
412
250
94
FY10
131
172
211
FY11
FY12
FY13
330
399
477
237
259
285
318
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
11 June 2014
JSP has invested heavily (INR355-400b) over four years. The new projects are now
operational but are being valued at discount to cost. Lower profitability largely due
to demand side issues and some uncertainties on sourcing raw materials are key
reasons for it. There are significant barriers to entry in setting up projects of such
size. Further, the cost of recreating such facilities would be significantly higher.
These problems too are surmountable. Thus, we believe that IRR of these projects
would improve to an extent that valuations would overcome project cost. On
replacement cost basis, JSP should be valued at a minimum of INR410/share as
explained in following table. This valuation does not capture the advantage of
12mtpa captive coal mines and 2-3mtpa captive iron ore mines. Hence, we believe
the stock is undervalued with respect to its intrinsic value.
Replacement cost
Process
Specific
Capacity
A. Steel
Value
(mtpa)
(USD/t)
Raigarh
3.0
1,000
Angul Steel
1.5
1,000
1,500
500
1,000
Oman
B. Power
(MW)
(U$m/MW)
1,000
1.0
1,000
Tamnar -2
2,400
1.0
2,400
810
1.0
810
C. Overseas mining
(INR b)
(INR)
5,500
330
361
4,210
253
276
3,000
Tamnar -1
CPP
Value
per share
Sub total
42
46
700
700
123
134
747
817
F. Net Debt
372
406
375
410
Risk factors
11 June 2014
Jindal Power has yet to find buyers (PPA) for 2,000mw and coal supply (FSA) for
1,200mw for Tamnar-II. We have assumed PLF of 25% in FY15E, 45% in FY16E
and 85% in FY17E. In the absence of PPA and/or FSA, Jindal Power may resort to
merchant sales of power and purchase of e-auction coal. Margins in such a
situation will be volatile.
For Angul steel plant, we assume that thermal coal will be available in e-auction
in the range of INR1,800-2,100/t. In case of delay in developing coal block or
delay in production growth at Coal India, there may be significant impact on eauction coal prices in view of large quantities required.
Margins in steel business are exposed to steel and iron ore prices. We expect
iron ore supply in Odisha will ease. If there are delays to restart the closed iron
ore mines, supply may be tighter and the cost of iron ore may be higher than
our estimates. However, JSP can use zero cost inventories of iron ore fines to
keep its overall cost low for one or two years.
(INR Billion)
2012
182.1
38.9
68.9
37.8
13.9
55.0
3.6
1.4
-0.9
51.9
11.9
22.9
40.0
41.0
7.7
-0.4
40.6
2013
198.1
8.8
65.7
33.2
15.4
50.3
7.6
1.4
-5.7
38.3
9.2
24.0
29.1
34.9
-14.9
0.0
34.8
2014
200.0
1.0
60.8
30.4
18.3
42.5
15.0
0.7
-3.0
25.1
6.2
24.6
18.9
21.9
-37.1
0.2
22.1
2015E
248.5
24.2
76.7
30.9
24.2
52.5
23.4
2.9
0.0
32.0
8.2
25.6
23.8
23.8
8.6
0.8
24.7
2016E
296.8
19.4
93.5
31.5
27.4
66.1
28.6
3.2
0.0
40.7
10.9
26.9
29.8
29.8
25.0
0.5
30.2
2012
0.9
180.2
181.1
170.9
11.9
367.0
223.3
58.4
164.9
136.5
3.8
143.9
35.8
13.1
1.5
93.6
83.1
29.1
54.0
60.9
367.0
2013
0.9
211.6
212.5
246.2
13.4
477.6
267.0
74.3
192.7
192.3
8.1
176.0
45.2
19.5
2.0
109.3
93.1
31.4
61.7
83.0
477.6
2014
0.9
225.2
226.1
362.3
14.7
613.9
356.2
86.5
269.7
252.3
3.4
209.3
48.8
17.7
10.2
132.6
126.8
27.5
99.3
82.5
613.9
2015E
0.9
246.6
247.5
379.8
15.6
653.2
544.0
108.1
435.9
122.8
3.4
215.4
52.4
22.5
7.9
132.6
130.2
31.0
99.3
85.2
653.2
2016E
2017E
0.9
0.9
273.6
306.2
274.5
307.1
419.8
454.8
16.6
17.7
721.1
790.2
629.2
639.9
132.9
160.7
496.3
479.2
109.2
165.2
3.4
3.4
241.3
275.3
59.6
64.5
28.9
34.2
20.2
44.0
132.6
132.6
135.0
138.8
35.7
39.5
99.3
99.3
106.3
136.5
721.1
790.2
E: MOSL Estimates
Balance sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans & Adv, Others
Curr Liabs & Provns
Curr. Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
11 June 2014
2017E
336.1
13.2
104.5
31.1
30.4
74.1
30.3
4.8
0.0
48.5
12.6
26.0
35.9
35.9
20.7
-0.1
35.9
(INR Billion)
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
43.4
58.2
193.7
1.6
3.8
37.3
53.7
227.3
1.6
4.4
24.2
44.2
247.1
1.6
7.7
26.9
53.4
270.5
1.6
6.9
33.0
63.0
300.1
1.6
5.7
39.2
72.4
335.7
1.6
4.8
7.5
5.6
1.7
2.6
6.9
0.5
8.8
6.1
1.4
2.8
8.4
0.5
13.5
7.4
1.3
3.3
10.7
0.5
12.1
6.1
1.2
2.7
8.7
0.5
9.9
5.2
1.1
2.4
7.5
0.5
8.3
4.5
1.0
2.1
6.8
0.5
25.2
17.3
17.7
12.4
10.1
7.9
10.4
8.7
11.6
10.1
12.3
10.6
0.5
26.2
71.8
93.8
0.4
36.0
83.4
86.5
0.3
32.3
89.1
72.1
0.4
33.1
76.9
65.8
0.4
35.5
73.3
64.1
0.4
37.2
70.0
62.3
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
2012
51.9
13.9
-1.4
3.6
-10.0
-17.0
43.4
-73.3
-0.8
0.0
-74.1
0.0
31.2
-3.6
-1.5
27.5
-3.2
4.6
1.5
2013
38.3
15.4
-1.4
7.6
-7.8
-21.6
36.8
-99.5
-4.3
0.0
-103.8
0.0
75.3
-7.6
-1.5
67.5
0.5
1.5
2.0
2014
25.1
18.3
-0.7
15.0
-4.9
8.6
57.7
-107.4
-37.2
0.0
-144.6
-5.0
116.1
-15.0
-1.7
95.0
8.2
2.0
10.2
2015E
32.0
24.2
-2.9
23.4
-7.3
-4.9
60.7
-58.2
0.0
0.0
-58.2
0.0
17.5
-23.4
-1.7
-4.7
-2.2
10.2
7.9
11 June 2014
(INR Billion)
2016E
2017E
40.7
48.5
27.4
30.4
-3.2
-4.8
28.6
30.3
-9.9
-11.5
-8.9
-6.4
70.9
82.8
-71.6
-66.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-71.6
-66.7
0.0
0.0
40.0
35.0
-28.6
-30.3
-1.7
-1.7
12.9
7.8
12.3
23.8
7.9
20.2
20.2
44.0
E: MOSL Estimates
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