1971 ELTE TTK ATOMFIZIKA TANSZK

1974 SZMOK
1976 ELTE TTK CSILLAGSZATI TANSZK
1981 MTA FLDTUDOMNYI OSZTLY

Leningrd
Amsterdam Moszkva
Berlin
Budapest
Szfia
Modena
Trieste

Fizikus diploma
Programozi diploma
Doktori diploma
Kandidtusi oklevel

Neutron aktivcis analzis

PL1 Fortran
A lgkri CO2 abszorpcijnak szmtsa
Mholdas zonszondzs

Calgary
Maryland

Dundee
Oxford

Portland

Sanghai

Hampton

Ilorin
OMSZ KLFI Sugrzsi Osztly 1971 1981

Lagos

INTERKOZMOSZ: Leningrd, Moszkva, Berlin, Szfia

Dundee, Oxford F. Taylor, D. Walshaw
NIGRIA, UNIVERSITY OF CALABAR, ILORINBSRN
Sidney

ICTP G. Furlan, IMGA CNR R. Guzzi HARTCODE

Colledge Park, UMD,(GOES,GLI) RAYTHEON ( OMPS )

Melbourne

Hampton LARC (LAABS, AIRS, CERES, FIRST)

A. Rosch, N. van Andel
K. Gregory, C. Game
G. Fulke, C. Wiese
J. Pompe
D. Brooks
W. Guang, Y. Shaomin

felszni mrsek
szmtgpes httr
elmleti interprtetcik
virial szmtsok
GCMek korltai
sztohasztikus modellezs

CO2 greenhouse effect based catastrophic global warming in Hampton ? March 1, 2015 : Record low temperature in 110 years !

Far-Infrared Properties of the Earth Radiation Budget

A Proposal Submitted to NRA 03-OES-02
Submitted April 15 2003
Martin G. Mlynczak, Bill Collins, Dave Kratz, Ping Yang,
Christopher J. Mertens, Ferenc Mislkolczi, Robert G. Ellingson,
Bill Smith, Sr., Bryan Baum, Paul Stackhouse, Larry Gordley
8.1 Science Team Member Responsibilities
Mlynczak, Miskolczi, Mertens,and Smith : CERES and AIRS window radiance verification
Kratz, Mertens, Miskolczi, Gordley : Far-IR flux derivations
Ellingson, Mertens : Radiative cooling rates
Miskolczi, Kratz, and Mlynczak : Spectral Greenhouse Effect
Yang, Baum, and Stackhouse : Far-IR Cirrus Properties
Collins, Mertens, Kratz, Miskolczi : Climate Model Comparisons
All : Error Analysis

http:/science.larc.nasa.gov/ceres/STM/2005-11_miskolczi_airs.pdf

RADIATIVE CLIMATE OF THE EARTH ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM

THE CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT BASED GLOBAL WARMING HYPOTHESIS
EMPIRICAL FACTS AND THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS

Dr. Ferenc M. Miskolczi

3 Holston Lane, Hampton, VA 23664, USA
e-mail: fmiskolczi@cox.net

RS & NAS Feb. 27th 2014

The Basics of

Climate Change
Greenhouse gases affect Earths energy balance and climate

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including

water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide, absorb heat energy and emit it in
all directions (including downwards), keeping
Earths surface and lower atmosphere warm.
Adding more greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere enhances the effect, making Earths
surface and lower atmosphere even warmer.

B1

An overview from the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences
G = 390-240 = 150 Wm-2

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT :

FE
FA

Some solar
radiation is
reflected by
Earth and the
FR atmosphere

T = 288 -255 = 33 K

G = S U - F A = S U - OLR A = A A - E U
Some of the infrared radiation
passes through the atmosphere.
Some is absorbed by
greenhouse gases and reemitted in all directions by the
atmosphere. The effect of this is
to warm Earths surface and the
lower atmosphere.

FA= OLRA

Atmosphere

AA

Earths Surface

Some radiation is
absorbed by Earths
surface and warms it

OLRA
ED

SU
Infrared
radiation is
emitted by
Earths surface

RS & NAS Feb. 27th 2014 RS - SIR PAUL NURSE President

ST

EU

NAS - Dr. RALPH J. CICERONE President

http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/....
global_warmingrev1.shtml

http://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget

http://www.realclimate.org/....2007/04/
learning-from-a-simple-model

http://www.seipub.org/des/Download.aspxID=21810

PLANETARY GREENHOUSE EFFECT LINKED TO

ATMOSPHERIC IR ABSORPTION

KT97

KT08

PROGRESS ARTICLE

NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1580

G. STEPHENS 2012 :

Incoming
solar
340.20.1

Updated energy balance

TOA imbalance 0.60.4

Reflected solar 100.02
Shortwave
cloud effect
47.53

Atmospheric
absorption 7510

55

Sensible
heating
247

Clear-sky 27.24.6
refection
Surface shortwave 1656
absorption

All-sky
atmospheric
window
204

Outgoing
239.73.3 longwave
radiation

Clear-sky
emission
266.43.3

Longwave
26.74 cloud effect

Latent
heating

-187.912.5

35

8810

26.65

233

3985

Surface
reflection

Surface
emission

All-sky longwave
absorption

3199

Clear-sky emission
to surface

345.69 All-sky emission

to surface

Surface imbalance 0.617

Martin Wild Doris Folini Christoph Schar Norman Loeb Ellsworth G. Dutton
Gert Konig-Langlo
Clim Dyn (2013) 40:31073134 DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8

340.4
-99.9
-239.9
+0.6 Wm-2

+0.6 Wm-2

0.6 +/- 17 Wm-2

NATURE DOI:0.1038/NGEO1580
G. L. Stephens, J. Li, M. Wild, C. A. Clayson, N. Loeb4, S. Kato, T. LEcuyer, P. W. Stackhouse Jr,
M.Lebsock and T. Andrews

S z n e t e l a k l m a v l t o z s SSZEFGGS : Ktsgtelen az emberi tevkenysg kvetkezmnye

Mika Jnos : KLMAVLTOZS 13, 2014. PRILIS 25., PNTEK
"A melegeds megtorpanst minden bizonnyal a dli flteke cenjainak vratlanul felersdtt helnyel kpessge okozza..."
"Az ghajlati modellek nem tudjk szimullni a tapasztalt stagnlst."
"Amg teht az ceni cirkulci szmtst a kutatk fel nem javtjk annyira a klmamodellekben, hogy megjelenjen bennk a
hmrsklet megtorpansa, addig azt sem lesznk kpesek elre jelezni, hogy mikortl folyatdik a felmelegeds, s hogy
ugyanolyan tem lesz-e, mint korbban."

Annual mean normalizd surface, effective and greenhouse temperatures, and CO2 concentrations
1948 2007, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Normalized temperatures and CO2 concentrations

2.5
TS
2

TE = ( OLR / )0.25
TG = TS TE

1.5

CO2
1
0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5

1950

1960

1970

1980
Years

1990

2000

2.8

Theoretical optical depth, , is the solution of the 3 + 2 e = 10 / ( 1 + + e ) equation

IR optical depth / H2O column amount

2.7
2.6
2.5

H2O precipitable centimeters

2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2

Theoretical: 1.87

IR optical depth ( annual mean )

1948 2008 (61 year mean)
1959 2008 (50 year mean)
1948 1997 (50 year mean)
1973 2008 (36 year mean)
1948 1972 (25 year mean)
1977 2008 (32 year mean)
1948 1976 (29 year mean)
mean profile values

1.9
1.8

1950

1960

1970

1980
Years

1990

2000

NOAA R1 61 year mean A : 0.84568

Theoretical A : 0.8455

0.4
Expected trend in A from CO2 increase only

0.3

Flux absorption anomaly, %

Anomaly in A
Observed linear trend in A
0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1950

1960

1970

1980
Time, year

1990

2000

225 TIGR2 soundings, 2000 spherical shells

400

= 2.00926 T 0.9553

390

Potential energy density , J/m3

r = 1.0000

SU = 380 W/m2

380

EU = 190 W/m2

370

360

350

340

330
165

170

175

180

185

190
3

Kinetic energy density T , J/m

195

200

MAGYAR TUDOMNY : Vlemny Miskolczi Ferenc: rtekezs az veghzhatsrl c. kziratrl

" Miskolczi Ferenc kziratban bemutatott kiindulsi feltevse szakmailag tves, elfogadhatatlan.Abbl indul
ugyanis ki, hogy a Fld-lgkr rendszerbe berkez s onnan tvoz energia egyenl....."
" Miskolczi a termszeti folyamatokon tesz erszakot akkor, amikor energia-egyenslyt felttelez egy olyan
rendszerben, amelyik gyakorlatilag soha nincs egyenslyban...."
" sszefoglalva: megtlsem szerint a kzirat a slyos szakmai tvedsek, s az olvaskat flrevezet hivatkozsi
cssztats miatt nem alkalmas az MT-ben trtn kzlsre....."
Budapest, 2013. 02.23.

CLEAR-SKY GREENHOUSE FACTORS

Global mean profiles of G(z) : GT, G1 G4, GR

B(z): t (z)

= (zT,z) : IR optical depth

70
G = (B(z)*(12/(1++exp()))

Altitude z, km

Tr IR transmission

128.54 W/m2

G1 = (B(z) OLR(zT,z))

128.42 W/m2

60

E upward flux
U
E downward flux

128.42 W/m2

G3 = (ED(zT,z)/i EU(zT,z))

128.42 W/m2

50

OLR outgoing flux

anisotropy
i
z top altitude
T

G2 = (B(z)*(1Tr(zT,z) EU(zT,z))
G4 = OLR(z,0)

128.36 W/m

GR = B(z)*(1Tr(zT,z))

148.71 W/m

dGR = G1 GR

20.29 W/m2

z layer thickness

40

2
2

G(z) = t4(z) OLR(z ,z) = B(z)*(1T (z ,z)) E (z ,z) = G(z)

T
r T
U T
GR in Raval and Ramanathan, 1989: Nature, VOL 342, pp 759, Eqs. 12,

30

or G in Kiehl and Ramanathan, 2006: Frontiers of Climate Modeling,

R
Cambridge University Press 2006.,pp 133,Eqs. 5.35.4, are incorrect
and inconsistent with the definitions of G1 G4 and the theoretical

20

expectation of G ! Global average G shows 15 % error (overestimate)

T
R
compared to the definition of G1 or the theoretical GT published in
Miskolczi 2007:Idjrs,VOL 111, pp 14, Eqs. 1819 and Eq. 28 !

10
0
5

10

15

Layer contribution to G(z) : G(z) = G(z+z)G(z), W/m2

20

Water vapor column density and thermal structure

Logarithm of the H2O column density follows the shape of the temperature variations, r = 0.994

40

689 soundings, saturation pressure computed over water and ice

Water vapor layer column density
Layer mean temperature
40
JAN

35

JAN

FEB

FEB

35

MAR

MAR

APR

30

APR

30

MAY

MAY

JUN

JUN

JUL

JUL

25

AUG

Altitude, km

Altitude, km

25

SEP
OCT

20

NOV
DEC

SEP
OCT

20

15

10

10

2
0
2
4
6
log(H2O, atmcmSTP / km)

NOV
DEC

15

0
4

AUG

200

220 240 260 280

Temperature, K

300

1761 TIGR2 Soundings, 40 pressure levels

Pressure, hPa

10

100

1000
180

200

220

240
260
Temperature, K

280

300

320

Crossreferenced profile # 60

TIGR2 # 1621

S/N

ts

h2o

o3

Su

Ed

OLR

St

Eu

tau

1621
2171

266.6
266.6

0.5262
0.5274

0.2546
0.3548

286.7
286.7

200
200.4

213.8
210.4

78.48
76.95

135.3
133.4

1.295
1.315

0
0

0.0012
0.2281

0.1002
39.36

0.00043
0.00015

0.4968
0.2485

3.403
1.592

1.535
1.956

1.868
1.381

0.01976
1.525

226.71

226.71

23.285

23.285 K

0.2496

0.2516

0.5862

0.5854

g/kg

0.1
Pressure, hPa

Pressure, hPa

0.1
1
10
100
1000
200
2.779

220 240 260 280

Temperature, K
2.607

3.899

3.212

1
10
100
1000
6

300

Pressure, hPa

0.1

1
10
100
1000
7.5

7 6.5 6 5.5
log10( O3 mmr, g/g )

5
4
3
2
log10( H2O mmr, g/g )

mg/kg

0.1
Pressure, hPa

TIGR2000 # 2171

H O
2

O3

10
100
1000
30 20 10
0
10
20
30
H2O mmr, ppmm, O3 mmr, ppmm

Contribution density function and temperature profile

Arctic winter TIGR21477 h O = 0.141 prcm
2

tS = t(z) at 3.648 km

2
0
2
2 1
dAA/dz dED/dz, Wm m x 103

237.23 243.47 249.72

Temperature, K

Altitude, km

Altitude, km

ED = AA at 3.652 km

S = *t4
U
s

600
Fluxes, W/m2

ED
3

OLR = ST+ EU
6

EU
8

ST
10

11

23
15
18
21
19
23
22
22
23
Number of soundings in the 11 seasonalgeographical classes

23

400
200
0
16

ED

AA = SU ST

G = AA ED

G = SU OLR = AA EU

Fluxes, W/m2

600
400
200
0
16

39

54

72

93
112
135
Sounding S/N

157

179

202

225

Atmospheric Kirchoff rule 1 = ED / AA = 0.9655

450
400

ED W m2

350

Equatorial
Midlatitude
Polar
r = 0.9984
2
bias = 11.04 W/m

300
250
200
150
100
100

150

200

250
300
AA W m2

350

400

450

Radiative equilibrium rule f = 2 / ( 1 + A +TA ) = 0.673

600
550

OLR / f W/m2

500

Equatorial
Midlatitude
Polar
r = 0.9582
bias = 9.991 W/m2

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
150

200

250

300

350
SU W/m2

400

450

500

550

Energy conservation rule OLR / SU = 0.6683

SV = 0.3075 W m2

550
500

3 OLR / 2 W m2

450

Equatorial
Midlatitude
Polar
r = 0.9767
bias = 0.9195 W/m2

400
350
300
250
200
150
150

200

250

300

350
400
2
SU W m

450

500

550

Virial rule Su / Eu = 1.978

550
500

2 EU W m2

450

Equatorial
Midlatitude
Polar
r = 0.9409
bias = 4.291 W/m2

400
350
300
250
200
150
150

200

250

300

350
400
2
SU W m

450

500

550

Extropy rule
10

USST76

A, eA, kA

TIGR2

0
A, true observed
eA, equatorial stations
eA, midlatitude stations

eA, polar stations

kA = A eA

10

1.5

2.5

AA = ED
3
SU = OLR
2

SU = 2 EU
OLR
SU =
f

f = 2 /(2 + A)

OLR = EU + ST

AA = SU (1 exp( A ))

A = 1.867

Global average flux optical depths

225 TIGR2

Theoretical normalized flux densities

0.7

GAT

61 NOAA

2/3
1 2A/5

0.6

0.5

1/2

0.4
TA = ST / SU
A = 1 TA

0.3
1.867

0.2

1/6

1.5

2
Flux optical depth

f = 2 / (1 + A + TA)
g=1f
f TA = EU / SU
2.5

Anisotropy in directional radiances

Global average TIGR 2 atmosphere
SU

Limb angles

140

EiD

ED

ST

EU

53.13o

AA

OLR

81.7o

Radiance, W/(m2 sr)

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0

10

20

30
40
50
60
Viewing angle, degree

70

80

90

IPCC type nofeedback radiative forcing to N2, O2, CH4, CO2, and H2O perturbations

Reference global average clearsky OLR : TIGR2 ( 1976 ) : 251.8 W/m2, NOAA R1 ( 1948 ) : 256.4 W/m2

30

Recent GCMs do not observe the true radiative constraints from known physical principles

25

CH4

1.29 atmcmSTP

H O

2.61 prcm

CO2

15
OLR , W/m2

6.23e+005 atmcmSTP

O2

20

10

N2

1.67e+005 atmcmSTP
263 atmcmSTP

IPCC : OLR = 3.53 * ln(c/co) = 0.747 W/m2

REALITY
OLR = 3.02 W/m2

0
5
10
15
20

ln(1/8)

ln(1/4)
ln(1/2)
ln( 1 )
ln(GHG column amount perurbations)

ln(3/2) ln( 2 )

GLOBAL AVERAGE ATMOSPHERES

The USST-76 atmosphere is not adequate for global radiative budget studies.
(Not in radiative equilibrium, not in energy balance, H2O amount is small)

Interpretation of the effective temperature

The global average spectral clear and cloudy OLR and the effective temperature violate the Wien displacement law
2
1
Spectral flux densities are in W/m /cm

Clear,

0.4

St
Eu

0.3
0.2
0.1
0

500

1000

Spectral OLR

Spectral flux density

Clear

St+Eu

0.3

B(te)

0.2
0.1
0

Cloudy, = 39 cm1,

Ecu

0.1
0

500

1000
1

Wavenumber, cm

1500

Spectral OLR

Spectral flux density

Sct

0.2

1000

1500

Wavenumber, cm

Cloudy cloud top at 2 km

0.3

500

Wavenumber, cm

0.4

te = 258.1 K

0.4

1500

= 53 cm1,

tce = 255.1 K

0.4

Sct +Ecu

0.3

B(tce)

0.2
0.1
0

500

1000
1

Wavenumber, cm

1500

Global average radiative equilibrium structure with constant A

TA = ST / SU = 1 / 6, A = 1.792

g = 0.3240 ~ 1/3
F

OLR
1

ST
1/4

2/3

1/6

EU
3/4

2/3

1/2

1/4

1/6
F

AA
5/4

3/2

ATMOSPHERE

K+

5/6

1/2

1/3

5/6 1/2

1/3

1
5/4

3/4

1/2

F F
A

SURFACE

ST

60

EU

OLR

ED

SU

OLR
ED
50

EU
SU

Altitude, km

40

ST

30

20

10

50

100

150

200

250
2

Flux density, Wm

300

350

400

Planetary radiative equilibrium cloud cover at hC altitude

FA = (1-A ) OLR + A OLRC
FE = (1-E ) SU + ESUC
A ( FA , hC ) = ( FA OLR ) / ( OLRC ( hC ) OLR )
E ( FE , hC ) = ( FE S U) / ( SUC ( hC ) S )
U

FA = (1 - B )FE
min ( || A (hC,B ) - E(hC,B ) ||2 )

Radiative equilibrium cloud altitude and albedo

6
10
4

log10 ( )

0
0
2
5
4
10
5

0.305
3

Altitude, km

0.3
1

0.295
Albedo

ISCCPD2 198307200806 global mean : 66.38 +/ 1.48 %

Monthly mean cloud amount anomalies, %

4
Theoretical global mean : 66.18 %
2

4
1985

1990

1995
Years

2000

2005

Planetary effective temperatures

Eu, , Ecu, : atmospheric upward LW spectral emission from clear and cloudy areas
S , Sc : transmitted spectral flux density from the ground surface and cloud top
t,
t,
OLRA = (1 )(St + Eu) + (Sct + Ecu) = 238.9 W/m2

cloud cover = 0.66

0.4

tae = (OLRA/)0.25 = 254.78 K

238.94 OLRA

observed

72.962 (1) St, + Sct,

0.35
Spectral flux density, W/m2/cm1

165.98 (1) Eu, + Ecu,

0.3
0.25

238.94 B(tae)

observed tae = 254.8 K

238.94 B(ta)

NASA

341.98 B(tas)

observed tas = 278.7 K

341.97 B(te)

0.2

NASA

te = 254.8 K

te = 278.7 K

0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0

500

1000

1500
1

Wavenumber, cm

2000

2500

Observed global mean spectral greenhouse factor, GFA

F0 , F0 , and F0 : total effective, absorbed, and reflected SW radiation in W m

SA , OLRA, and GFA : total effective surface upwad, outgoing, and greenhouse LW flux densities in W m2
U
e
e

0.4
GFA

GFA

= 103.04

FE
0,

FE
0

= 341.97

0.3

FA
0,

FA
0

= 238.94

0.25

FR
0,

FR
0

= 103.03

SA
U,

SA
U

= 341.98

Spectral flux density, W m2 cm1

0.35

0.2

OLRA
e,

OLRA
= 238.94
e

GFA
e,

GFA
e

0.15
= 103.04

0.1
0.05
0
200

400

600

800

1000

1200
1

Wavenumber, cm

1400

1600

1800

2000

Albedo : 0.30

Cloud cover : 0.66

Cloud top altitude : 1.92 km

w : Wien constant

log10 ( Spectral flux density, W m2 cm1 )

W m2
3

63.18E+6

1368

tSUN 5778
t0
394.1

SE

342

tE

278.7

239

tA

254.8

103

tR

206.5

0
0

SR

OBSERVED

H2O triple point at :

535.66 cm1
273.16 K = maxw

342

OLR 239
GFA 103

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5
1

log10 ( Wavenumber, cm )

4.5

bu
h2o
ed
olr
st
eu
tau

350

300

Power

250

200

150

100

50

0
2

8
10
Period(Years/Cycle)

12

14

16

A CO2 VEGHZHATSN ALAPUL GLOBLIS FELMELEGEDS

HIPOTZISE TUDOMNYTALAN SZEMFNYVESZTS

FA = OLRA = 238.94 Wm-2

A = 1.867

TRUE INFRARED FLUX OPTICAL THICKNESS

ST = SU exp( A )
K
1 M

k
k
A = ln 4 B ( j , t A ) w TA ( j , )
t A j =1

k =1

1
TA ( j , k ) =
j

i ,l
L N
u
i ,l
i ,l

exp
c
k

l , k d

l =1 i =1
j

M=3490 is the total number of spectral intervals, K=9 is the total number of streams,
wk is the hemispheric integration weight associated with the k-th direction (stream),
TA is the directional mean transmittance over a suitable short wave number interval,

l ,k = cos( l ,k ) / dz l

l,k

is the local zenith angle of a path segment, dzl is the vertical layer thickness, N =11 is
the total number of major absorbing molecular species, L=150 is the total number of
layers. ui,l, ci,l and ki,l are the absorber amounts, and the continuum and line type
absorption coefficients.