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Amazon
October 15
Kindle:
Revolutionizin
g the way we
read
2009
The market leader in the eBook industry, Amazon’s
Kindle, has made long strides in a very short amount of
time. However, since this is a relatively new industry the
future is unpredictable. This report addresses key
strategic elements that Amazon will need to consider as
competition surges and market conditions change, in
order to achieve and maintain sustainable and renewable
advantage
2Amazon Kindle: Revolutionizing the way we read
Introduction
The Electronic book (eBook) industry is currently positioned at an interesting
stage in its life cycle. Established in its current form in September 2006 with
the creation of the PRS-500 by Sony, the eBook industry is trying to
challenge and change one of the most popular activities in the world: reading
books. The reading habit dates back more than 500 years and was prevalent
across almost all civilizations around the world. Reading was embedded
even more across different cultures in the 20th century, when the rate of
publishing increased rapidly, often referred to as information explosion.
Today, the three dominant players in the eBook industry are Amazon.com
with its Kindle series; Sony with its E-reader PRS-500 family; and Bookeen
with the Cybook. Amazon’s Kindle is a market leader with approximately
60% of the eBook market share.
In second place is Sony’s E-Reader, which has 35% of the eBook market
share. There have been six E-Reader models to date. The PRS-500 was
made available in the US in September 2006. The PRS-700, with touch
screen and built in lighting was introduced in October 2008 (and has since
been discontinued). On August 2009 Sony announced two new readers, the
3Amazon Kindle: Revolutionizing the way we read
budget PRS-300 Pocket Edition and the more advanced PRS-600 Touch
Edition. Also in August 2009, Sony announced the Reader’s PRS-900 Daily
Edition. This features a 7" diagonal screen to compete with the Amazon
Kindle DX. It is also the first to feature free 3G wireless via AT&T to access
the Sony eBookstore in the absence of a computer.
With respect to the eBook industry, The Red Queen Effect indicates that
corporations and other organizations can run faster, but fall behind because
others are running too. The ongoing interest and rising demands in the
eBook industry (estimates predict that the number of e-readers sold in the
US will increase from 3 million in 2009 to 13 million in 2013)2 will lead to
more competitors entering this industry with more technologically advanced
devices, and thus could potentially take over Amazon & Sony’s market
positions.
2www.readwriteweb.com/archives/ebook
4Amazon Kindle: Revolutionizing the way we read
Amazon's 60% market share in the U.S. could shrink due to evolving
competitor technologies and changing consumer needs. A current consumer
trend is to read eBooks on smart phones rather than on dedicated devices
like e-readers.
Not only will internet and technology companies threaten the dominance of
Amazon and Sony in the e-book industry business, but also a bricks-and-
mortar bookseller, like Barnes & Noble, which in the U.S. offers access to
750,000 e-books on its website, is rumored to be developing its own e-
reader to compete with the Kindle (The retailer already has a partnership to
sell e-readers made by IREX, a spin-off of Holland's Philips Electronics). This
could be a potential threat for Amazon and we believe that Amazon should
be ready to dynamically align in the case of a change in the future market
conditions.
3 http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1929387,00.html
5Amazon Kindle: Revolutionizing the way we read
In order to understand which Economic Time cycle this industry operates in,
we propose to evaluate the products along multiple economic cycle-speed
descriptors such as source of value, isolating mechanisms, impact of
innovation on incremental value addition, lifetime sustainability of
competitive advantage, pricing patterns, competitive dynamics, & value of
Brand loyalty.
4 Renewable Advantage Chapter 3: The Children Eaters, Author: Prof. Jeffrey Williams
6Amazon Kindle: Revolutionizing the way we read
long-run if the value addition comes purely from the physical gadget. These
attributes, along with the cultural neutrality & innate globalist features of the
product with few physical, regulatory, or geographic barriers4 position it in a
typical fast-cycle model – case-in-point being Sony e-Reader’s launch in the
UK in summer of 2009 (@ $249.99) & Amazon’s quick response in UK
markets with an “International Edition” in October, 2009 (@ $279.00).
5 Patel, Nilay (November 21, 2007). "Kindle Sells Out in 5.5 Hours". Engadget.com
http://www.engadget.com/2007/11/21/kindle-sells-out-in-two-days/
All these aspects point to the fact that isolating mechanism based purely on
the e-reader physical product can at best be described as weak. What
potentially can become an isolating mechanism for the Kindle is Amazon’s e-
book business. If Amazon can successfully leverage its vast relationship with
publishers and harness its powerful customer recommendation engine to
offer compelling service features, only then can it add a level of stickiness to
its e-reader product. For example, the Kindle is demanding 70% of the
profits from magazine and newspaper subscriptions, and Amazon maintains
republishing right on other devices like the iPhone8. Whether or not Amazon
should open up its e-books business to other readers or try to maintain
exclusivity in so far as the formats, store access, or future Kindle applications
are concerned, we believe it’s a bit too early to comment on but it is
certainly a source of strong isolating mechanisms.
As seen above, the slew of new product introductions in the market creates a
high level of uncertainty and hence the focus must be on recouping profits as
quickly as possible. The clear message for companies looking to enter this
space would be to not wait for the emergence of standardization or a
dominant design because market conditions and target customer segments
are bound to change rapidly. Any delay in coming to a “go/no-go” decision
about market entry, product specification, product placement or promotion
would only result in loss of potential profits to competitors who possess a
greater bias for action. The key for Amazon would be to encourage
investment in alternatives or complementary assets that build better
isolating mechanisms or allow Amazon to quickly adapt to changing needs
while capitalizing on as much profit from Kindle’s success as possible. For
e.g. the e-book business could be one such alternative which would allow
Amazon to compete in the e-Reader space regardless of which physical
reader wins the innovation race.
Even in its early stages, the e-Reader industry shows clear trends. When
faced by absence of precedents or uncertain demand, both Amazon & Sony
err on the side of setting prices high rather than appeal to a larger audience
by pricing low. This is because it is easier to reduce prices in future as
10Amazon Kindle: Revolutionizing the way we read
In July, 2009 Amazon slashed prices for its 2nd Generation Kindle (released in
February, 2009) from $359.00 to $299.00 – a 17% price drop. On October
06, 2009, the prices were slashed again to $259.00 – a 28% price drop from
the original release price within 6 months. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, in an
interview, said "the company can now afford to reduce the price because of
the increased number of Kindles the company is making - and selling"9. We
believe that, consistent with the theory of “Fast-Shifting Strategies” in fast-
cycle markets, dropping prices on older versions significantly shortens
competitor’s profit cycles. Dominant players introduce newer versions with
more capabilities and charge higher price points. In effect, most competitors
are restricted to playing “catch-up” with the market leader.
As prices fall quickly and new global competitors move in, the focus of
competition passes quickly from early adopters, who are predisposed to
paying a premium, to price-sensitive fast followers and finally to late-
adopters waiting for a low-price commodity (see Appendix-3). A marketplace
where thousands of idea-driven, well-financed companies have quick access
to millions of customers with fairly high disposable income is the building
block of a fast-cycle market4.
brand new Kindle DX, he/she must pay the full $489.00 for the new machine.
During the launch of Kindle DX, when asked how Jeff Bezos would reward
early adopters of 1st & 2nd Generation Kindles, the quick response was –
“allow them to be first in line for Kindle DX pre-orders”.
Conclusion
While Amazon’s Kindle is currently the strongest player in the market, in
order to gain sustainable advantage, the company needs to be prepared to
deal with an unpredictable future. Keeping in mind the fact that only 30% of
the value of the company is determined by the profits and 70% is
determined by the expectations of the future, Amazon will only be a winner if
it is able to create value in the future. Further, Amazon will need to adapt to
market changes and meet consumer needs in order to maintain a
competitive position. More specifically, if all the competition in the eBooks
industry turns towards an open file format (namely, the ePub format), there
will be no place left for Amazon’s Kindle (proprietary format) in the
marketplace as consumers would want to buy eBooks that are compatible
across different e-readers. This could turn into a tipping point/winner takes
it all situation, as seen in the case of Betamax in the 1970’s, which was
thrown off the market as all the competitors offered the alternative VHS
standard.12
Lastly, Amazon should keep in mind that at the end of the day, a focus on
core competencies is more crucial than a focus on the product alone, in
order to maintain sustainable and renewable advantage in our fast-paced
and constantly-changing world.
Appendix
Appendix 1: Kindle Family with Features & Prices
12 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kindle-in-danger-of-becoming-ebooks-betamax-2009-
08-10
13Amazon Kindle: Revolutionizing the way we read
The direct material cost of the Kindle-2, consisting of all parts used to make
the product, amounts to $176.83. When adding in the conversion costs—i.e.,
manufacturing expenses and the battery—the total rises by $8.66 to
$185.49.