CommodityMonitor Monthly Oct2012

Monthly Commodity Markets Roundup
Oct 2012
Markets performance
Units
Oct 2012
% chg
(MoM)
% chg
(Year to
date)
50.16
2,496.00
825.00
1,090.00
1,247.50
939.00
840.00
895.00
-3.87%
-1.96%
-6.52%
-3.28%
-0.60%
-0.11%
-1.18%
-3.76%
-3.71%
-21.39%
-23.26%
-4.39%
3.96%
-2.39%
-19.23%
-5.99%
19.46
255.10
2,388.00
154.65
4.12
-0.61%
-2.07%
-5.09%
-10.86%
-0.72%
-16.48%
-3.15%
13.23%
-31.83%
43.06%
86.24
1,720.05
32.21
7,759.50
1,906.00
1,870.00
-6.45%
-2.86%
-6.53%
-5.43%
-9.75%
-10.78%
-12.74%
9.99%
16.32%
2.10%
-5.64%
1.36%
13,096.46
5,782.70
3,038.37
637.74
-2.54%
0.71%
-0.72%
-4.20%
7.19%
3.78%
14.81%
-1.11%
79.9190
1.6128
1.2958
79.7600
1.2200
3.0445
-0.02%
-0.22%
0.78%
2.39%
-0.55%
-0.34%
-0.32%
3.82%
0.10%
3.67%
-5.92%
-3.93%
2.0306
0.25%
9.01%
Index
Vegetable oils
SBO @ CBOT
CPO @ BMD
RBD Olein, FOB, Mly
SBO, FOB, Arge
Sunoil, Ex NWE
Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch
CPO, cif, Rotterdam
CSBO degummed, Ex NWE
Softs and Plantations

Sugar 11 @ ICE
Rubber @ TOCOM
Cocoa @ ICE
Coffee C @ ICE
Tea, Best BP1, Kenya
Energy and Metals
Crude oil @ NYMEX
Gold spot
Silver spot
Copper @ LME
Aluminum @ LME
Zinc @ LME
Indices
DJIA
FTSE 100
Strait times
S&P GSCI
Currencies
US Dollar Index
GBP / USD
EUR / USD
USD / JPY
USD / SGD
USD / MYR
USD / BRL
US c/ lb
MYR / T
US$ /T
US$ /T
/T
/T
/T
/T
USc /lb
JPY /kg
US$ /T
USc /lb
US$ / kg
US$ /barrel
US$ /troy oz
US$ /oz
US$ /T
US$ /T
US$ /T
> Market performance

> Market Brief
> Market visuals
Spreads Corner
Macroeconomic gauge
Price charts - Agriculture
Price charts - Energy
Price charts - Indices
Price charts Currency & Treasury
yield
-2-
Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Oct 2012
Market Brief
Market analysis
a) Supply glut, especially of palm oil weighed on Vegetable oil markets in the 3rd quarter of 2012
World vegetable oil markets in general and palm oil in specific traded weak in the third quarter and the sell off accelerated
in Sep 2012 as market players were mainly concerned about the near term supply burden following the harvest of
Northern hemisphere oilseed crops viz. rapeseed, sunflower and soybean. Despite projected year on year decline in
oilseed derived vegetable oil output for MY 12/13 by over 2.4 million tons, (Table-1) near term harvest pressures took a
toll. Palm oil prices declined the most during the period as seasonal bounce in production aftermath to the low biological
yield cycle was much stronger than previously anticipated. Production in Malaysia during the 3rd quarter accumulated to a
record 5.36 million tons, up by 29% over previous quarter (Fig-1). Similar trend was experienced in Indonesia following
an increase in mature area. At the current pace, global palm oil production for CY 2012 is projected to reach 52.28 million
tons, up 1.86 million tons over previous year.
Fig-1: Quarterly Palm oil production trend in Malaysia, in
million tons
qty in mln.T 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 y/y chg

35.9
38.8
41.3
42.2
42.7
0.53
Rapeseed oil
20.6
22.4
23.6
24.0
23.2
-0.83
Sunflower oil
12.0
12.1
12.2
14.7
13.1
-1.58
Groundnut oil
5.1
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.2
-0.06
Cottonseed oil
4.8
4.6
5.0
5.3
5.2
-0.1
Olive oil
Sub total
Plantation
Palm oil
Palm Kernel oil
Coconut oil
Sub total
Total
2.8
81.0
3.1
85.8
3.3
90.4
3.3
94.7
2.9
92.3
-0.37
-2.41
44.0
5.2
3.5
52.7
133.7
45.9
5.5
3.6
55.0
140.8
47.9
5.6
3.8
57.3
147.7
50.2
5.8
3.6
59.5
154.3
52.3
6.1
3.5
61.9
154.2
2.13
0.32
-0.04
2.41
-0.01
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-1
q1-2001
q3-2001
q1-2002
q3-2002
q1-2003
q3-2003
q1-2004
q3-2004
q1-2005
q3-2005
q1-2006
q3-2006
q1-2007
q3-2007
q1-2008
q3-2008
q1-2009
q3-2009
q1-2010
q3-2010
q1-2011
q3-2011
q1-2012
q3-2012
Soybean oil
q/q %chg in production
Oilseed based veg oil output
qtrly production in mln.T
Table-1: Global vegetable oil production, in million tons
q/q growth, %, LHS
qtrly prodtn, in mln.T, RHS
Source: USDA, MPOB and Pacrim research
50
2.5
0
2.0
-50
1.5
-100
-150
1.0
-200
Palm olein discountagainst SBO at record
high with climbing up palm oil stocks
0.5
Palm oil stocks, in mln.T
3.0
100
-250
Fig-3: Palm oil prices relative to other vegetable oils, prices

in USD / MT.
0.0
-300
Jan-01
Aug-01
Mar-02
Oct-02
May-03
Dec-03
Jul-04
Feb-05
Sep-05
Apr-06
Nov-06
Jun-07
Jan-08
Aug-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
May-10
Dec-10
Jul-11
Feb-12
Sep-12
Palm olein discount against SBO,

US$/T
Fig-2: Palm olein discount against SBO at record low

following a sharp build up in palm oil stocks
RBD olein discount against SBO, LHS

Palm oil stocks in Malaysia, RHS
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
Besides an absolute decline in price levels, rapid increase in palm oil output and consequent build up in stock levels to
historic high levels in Malaysia and Indonesia owing to tepid demand has resulted in widening discount against other
Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
-3-
vegetable oils. The widely followed RBD Palmolein (basis FOB Malaysia) discount against Soybean oil (FOB Argentina)
has widened from early April2012 low of USD 40 to the Oct2012 high of USD 300 per MT, the level not seen in the past
ten year trading history. Fig-2 clearly highlights the impact of build up in palm oil stocks in Malaysia on the spread
between Palmolein and soybean oil. The spread looks unsustainable at the current levels and soon we might witness a
reversal in trend.
For the MY 2012/13, combined output of palm oil and palm kernel oil at the global front is forecasted to grow by 2.45
million tons to 58.4 million tons, and was able to completely offset the decline in soft oil output. But for the contribution
of palm oil production growth, the world vegetable oil supply situation would have been very tight. Although this could
averse any prolonged decline in prices, markets would be watching out for signs of pickup in demand before prices could
gather necessary momentum to head north.
b) World vegetable oil consumption for MY 2012/13 driven by growth in food use segment. Growth from
biofuel segment seen as weak link.
World consumption of eight major oils for MY 12/13 is forecasted to grow by 4.7 million tons to 155.05 million tons from
150.3 million tons in the previous year. This is in comparison to previous year growth of 5.8 million tons and well behind
the past five year average annual increment of 6.13 million tons (Fig-4). Food and feed use segment, with a year on year
growth of 3.8 million tons shall continue to be the engine of growth with majority of increase stemming up from China,
India, US and Indonesia. Industrial use segment which also accounts for use in biofuel production is currently seen as a
weak link as it is forecasted to grow by only 0.87 million tons compared to its past five year average annual growth of 2.5
million tons. However several developments in recent front suggest that this might change for better in the coming period.
These developments include
a) Prospective increase in biodiesel production at origins itself as in Indonesia and Argentina which are major
exporters of biodiesel to EU.
b) Implementation of higher blends of biodiesel in transportation fuel as in Malaysia which is planning to move
over to B10 from the existing B5. This move is estimated to absorb an additional 300 thousand MT of palm oil
per year.
c) Talks of a visit by US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Indonesia in order to reevaluate the implied
green house gas emission reduction by palm oil which hitherto failed to meet the EPAs Renewable Fuel Standard
guidelines.
d) Spain, one of the largest biodiesel importer in EU, move to relax the previously imposed ban on biodiesel
import from Indonesia and Argentina and
e) Prevailing trend of firm mineral oil prices which is conducive for an increase in discretionary usage of
renewable fuels.
y/y chg food n fd use

total consumption, mln.T
y/y chg in industrial use
veg oil ending stocks, mln.T, LHS
stocks to use, %
0%
12-13
2%
10-11
08-09
06-07
20
04-05
4%
02-03
40
6%
98-99
2000-01
60
96-97
10
94-95
80
8%
92-93
10%
12
90-91
100
88-89
120
86-87
12%
14
84-85
140
14%
16
82-83
18
1980-81
160
Fig-5: World ending stocks of eight major vegetable oils

and stocks to use trend
world veg oil ending stocks,mln.T
180
y/y chg in veg oil consumption, in

mln.T
veg oil consumption trend, in mln.T
Fig-4: World consumption growth of eight major vegetable

oils in Food and Feed use segment and industrial use
segments
stocks to use, %,RHS
Source: MPOB and Pacrim research
Though it is difficult to quantify the impact of these developments at the moment, it is apparent that world vegetable oil
balance sheet is tightly balanced following a mismatch in the production and consumption growths. World vegetable oil
-4-
ending stocks for MY 12/13 is currently forecasted at 12.8 million tons compared to the previous year level of 15.58
million tons. With stocks to use ratio at 8.27%, it still hovers near the lower end of the historical range as illustrated in
Fig-5.
While the underlying tightness is seen supportive for the vegetable oil prices in the medium term perspective, the
following factors play a crucial role in the immediate front.
a) Soybean crop development in South America, especially in Brazil and Argentina following a delay in planting pace.
b) Pick up in import demand for palm oil and pace of stock drawdown in Malaysia and Indonesia given its price
competitiveness
c) US soybean export pace in the current marketing till date which has exceeded the expectations till date.
d) Macroeconomic performance and financial risk contagion
-5-
Market Visuals
Spreads corner
Soybean to Corn price ratio
Wheat to Corn price ratio
Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil
CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF
SBO vs. Palm olein
Brent crude premium over WTI, Brent @ICE vs. WTI @ NYMEX
-6-
Macroeconomic gauge
Unemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%)
Manufacturing index in US, GBP, JPY, Germany and China (% y/y)
Automobile sales in US and China
US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence
Key interest rates, in %
Consumer price inflation (YoY), %
Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research
-7-
Price charts - Agriculture

CPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous
SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous
@:FCPOc3 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 2447, Hi 2447, Lo 2370, Close 2372 (-5.0%) Vol 78,500 MA(Close,15)
@:BOc1 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 49.16, Hi 49.22, Lo 48.25, Close 48.68 (-1.2%) Vol 138,720 MA(Clos e,15)
70.0
4,200
60.0
54.078
52.792
52.6989
50.0
48.68
3,600
3,166.84
3,047
3,000
2,727.27
40.0
2,400
2,372
30.0
1,800
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
@:FCPOc3 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 33.04515, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 30.72267
1,200
2012
90.0
70.0
50.0
33.0452
30.0
30.7227
10.0
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
20.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:BOc1 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 13.18466, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 8.36364
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
13.1847
Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous
Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous
@:Sc1 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 1522.25, Hi 1525.75, Lo 1503.5, Close 1516.75 (-0.7%) Vol 142,619
1,800
@:Cc1 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 737.5, Hi 745, Lo 733, Close 741 (0.2%) Vol 221,114 MA(Close,15)
800
771.4
741
700
690.094
1,629.53
1,600
1,516.75
1,473.22
1,400
1,388.45
682.068
600
1,200
500
1,000
400
800
300
600
200
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:Sc1 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 16.56086, Stochas tic %K(9,3) = 16.35881
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
16.5609
0.0
16.3588
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:Cc1 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 34.36908, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 32.26318
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
34.3691
20.0
32.2632
Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous
Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous
@:JRUc6 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 255, Hi 255.5, Lo 244.7, Close 246.6 (-3.4%) Vol 18,517 MA(Close,15)
540.0
@:SBc1 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 19.49, Hi 19.77, Lo 19.26, Close 19.59 (0.7%) Vol 69,982 MA(Close,15)
36.0
480.0
30.0
420.0
24.9201
24.0
21.9191
360.0
331.061
300.0
275.002
246.6
240.0
243.773
20.0493
19.59
18.0
12.0
180.0
120.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:JRUc6 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 67.59814, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 60.07959
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
67.5981
60.0
60.0796
40.0
20.0
6.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:SBc1 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 28.78337, Stochas tic %K(9,3) = 21.03479
2011
2012
90.0
70.0
50.0
30.0
28.7834
21.0348
10.0
Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous
Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous
@:Wc1 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 864.5, Hi 879.75, Lo 863, Close 877 (1.4%) Vol 111,936 MA(Close,15)
@:CTc1 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 70.2, Hi 71.1, Lo 69.95, Close 70.1 (-0.4%) Vol 21,834 MA(Clos e,15)
220.0
1,200
200.0
180.0
1,000
877.5
877
800
741.111
724.26
600
160.0
140.0
120.0
111.825
100.0
80.5162
72.8587
80.0
70.1
60.0
400
40.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:Wc1 - Stochas tic %D(9,3,3) = 30.70283, Stochas tic %K(9,3) = 32.65701
2011
2012
90.0
70.0
32.657
50.0
30.7028
30.0
10.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:CTc1 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 34.98711, Stochas tic %K(9,3) = 17.99465
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
34.9871
20.0
17.9947
-8-
Price Charts Energy and Metals

Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly
Natural Gas at NYMEX,
@:CLc1 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 84.65, Hi 89.22, Lo 84.34, Close 88.71 (4.5%) Vol 477,577 MA(Close,15)
@:NGc1 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 3.533, Hi 3.62, Lo 3.506, Close 3.617 (1.8%) Vol 217,603 MA(Close,15)
16.0
140.0
14.0
120.0
95.2038
94.9592
100.0
92.336
12.0
10.0
88.71
80.0
8.0
60.0
6.0
40.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:CLc1 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 13.92642, Stochas tic %K(9,3) = 12.36732
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
13.9264
12.3673
Gold, weekly, US$ / oz
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:NGc1 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 84.42943, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 78.96810
2011
2012
4.0
3.617
3.43335
2.0
3.12613
2.71007
90.0
84.4294
70.0
78.9681
50.0
30.0
10.0
Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.
@:GCc1 - Weekly 4/29/2005 Open 432.7, Hi 438.2, Lo 431.3, Close 435 (0.2%) Vol 207 MA(Close,15)
1,800
1,714.1
1,707.25
1,600
1,666.18
1,609.02
1,400
@:SIc1 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 3078.5, Hi 3215, Lo 3078.5, Close 3201.9 (3.8%) Vol 41,092 MA(Close,15)
4,800
4,200
1,200
3,600
3,314.47
3,201.9
3,000
3,188.15
1,000
3,099.67
2,400
800
1,800
600
1,200
400
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:GCc1 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 37.95097, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 39.80146
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.7869
40.0
25.5599
20.0
600
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
@:SIc1 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 36.69925, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 21.92114
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
36.6992
20.0
21.9211
Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T
Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
MCU3 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 7615, Hi 7700, Lo 7607, Close 7700 (0.5%) Vol 1,395 MA(Close,15)
MZN3 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 1852, Hi 1899.5, Lo 1852, Close 1899.5 (1.4%) Vol 1,504 MA(Close,15)
10,000
8,461.63
9,000
7,969.33
7,879.37
8,000
7,700
4,200
3,600
7,000
3,000
6,000
2,099.4
2,400
1,956.74
1,932.8
1,899.5
1,800
5,000
4,000
3,000
1,200
2,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
MCU3 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 34.93348, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 16.81851
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
34.9335
20.0
16.8185
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
MZN3 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 19.87828, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 16.40510
2011
2012
90.0
70.0
50.0
30.0
19.8783
10.0
16.4051
Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T
Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
MZN3 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 1852, Hi 1899.5, Lo 1852, Close 1899.5 (1.4%) Vol 1,504 MA(Close,15)
MPB3 - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 2082, Hi 2169, Lo 2082, Close 2165 (3.3%) Vol 629 MA(Clos e,15)
4,200
3,600
3,600
3,000
3,000
2,400
2,240.4
2,165
2,090.33
1,800
2,051.48
2,099.4
2,400
1,956.74
1,932.8
1,899.5
1,800
1,200
1,200
600
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
MZN3 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 19.87828, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 16.40510
2011
2012
90.0
70.0
50.0
30.0
19.8783
10.0
16.4051
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
MPB3 - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 38.16798, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 35.09739
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
38.168
35.0974
20.0
-9-
Indices, weekly charts

DowJones Industrial Average, US
S & P 500, US
.DJI - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 13092.3, Hi 13290.8, Lo 13038.7, Close 13245.7 (1.2%) Vol 2,010,625
.INX - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 1414.2, Hi 1433.38, Lo 1408.13, Close 1428.39 (1.0%) Vol 10,021 MA(Close,15)
1,600
14,000
13,298.2
13,245.7
13,000
12,975.9
12,408.6
12,000
1,500
11,000
1,428.39
1,400
1,427.63
1,377.05
1,300
1,316.71
1,200
10,000
1,100
1,000
9,000
900
8,000
800
7,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
.DJI - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 31.38977, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 23.05599
2011
2012
90.0
70.0
50.0
31.3898
30.0
23.056
10.0
700
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
.INX - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 30.53070, Stochas tic %K(9,3) = 25.87074
2011
2012
90.0
70.0
50.0
30.5307
30.0
25.8707
10.0
FTSE-100, UK
Strait Times Index, Singapore
.FTSE - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 5868.55, Hi 5885.16, Lo 5825.55, Close 5884.9 (0.3%) Vol 13,405,441
.FTSTI - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 3029.39, Hi 3037.12, Lo 3019.33, Close 3019.33 (-0.7%) Vol 4,553,045 4,000
6,600
3,500
6,000
5,884.9
5,826.71
5,728.25
5,400
5,713.69
3,052.03
3,019.33
3,000
2,972.33
2,960.95
2,500
4,800
2,000
4,200
1,500
3,600
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
.FTSE - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 70.46871, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 70.53278
2011
2012
90.0
70.5328
70.4687
70.0
50.0
30.0
10.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
.FTSTI - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 49.27834, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 40.36372
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
49.2783
40.0
40.3637
20.0
0.0
Shangai Composite Index, China
NSE NIFTY, India
.SSEC - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 2113.33, Hi 2123.33, Lo 2078.47, Close 2106 (-0.5%) Vol 1,429 MA(Close,15)
6,000
.NSEI - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 5693.05, Hi 5730.8, Lo 5679.5, Close 5724.4 (0.5%) Vol 1,898 MA(Close,15)
6,000
5,724.4
5,538.14
5,330.19
5,000
5,297.48
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
2,500.17
2,247.1
2,106
2,000
2,104.79
3,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
.SSEC - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 65.37368, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 66.61240
2011
2012
90.0
66.6124
70.0
65.3737
50.0
30.0
10.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
.NSEI - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 85.84789, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 87.06968
2011
2012
87.0697
90.0
85.8479
70.0
50.0
30.0
10.0
S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly
VIX (Volatility Index)
.SPGSCI - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 625.74, Hi 645.66, Lo 622.45, Close 644.612 (3.0%) Vol 0 MA(Close,15)
900
.VIX - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 18.33, Hi 18.7, Lo 17.19, Close 17.58 (-0.1%) Vol 0 MA(Clos e,15) = 15.70600
90.0
800
661.478
660.543
700
655.805
644.612
600
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
500
40.0
400
30.0
20.8993
17.6229
20.0
17.58
300
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
.SPGSCI - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 14.25840, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 12.85886
2011
2012
200
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
14.2584
12.8589
15.706
10.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
.VIX - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 65.52614, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 67.58958
2011
2012
67.5896
80.0
65.5261
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-10-
Currencies, weekly charts

US Dollar Index spot
GBP / USD
.DXY - Weekly 11/5/2012 Open 80.621, Hi 80.843, Lo 80.497, Close 80.749 (0.2%) Vol 0 MA(Close,15)
102.0
GBP= - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 1.602, Hi 1.6039, Lo 1.5956, Close 1.5995 (-0.2%) Vol 0 MA(Close,15)
2.100
2.000
96.0
1.900
90.0
1.800
1.700
84.0
1.5995
1.600
1.59759
1.59343
1.500
1.58284
1.400
80.749
80.6416
78.0
80.5815
78.4619
72.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
.DXY - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 48.53050, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 68.76960
2011
2012
100.0
80.0
68.7696
60.0
48.5305
40.0
20.0
0.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
GBP= - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 51.18608, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 41.80552
2011
2012
90.0
70.0
51.1861
50.0
41.8055
30.0
10.0
EUR / USD
USD / JPY
RD-EUR= - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 1.2811, Hi 1.2842, Lo 1.2761, Close 1.2813 (-0.2%) Vol 0 MA(Close,15)
1.600
RD-JPY= - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 80.27, Hi 80.56, Lo 79.95, Close 80.34 (-0.1%) Vol 0 MA(Close,15)
120.0
1.500
110.0
1.400
1.34158
1.28399
1.300
1.2813
100.0
1.27641
90.0
1.200
1.100
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
RD-EUR= - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 62.15699, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 44.02306
2011
2012
90.0
70.0
62.157
50.0
44.0231
30.0
10.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
RD-JPY= - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 81.50681, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 87.26936
2011
2012
80.34
80.0
79.5995
79.3847
87.2694
100.0
81.5068
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
USD / SGD
USD / MYR
SGD= - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 1.2229, Hi 1.2267, Lo 1.2216, Close 1.2223 (-0.2%) Vol 0 MA(Close,15) 1.800
MYR= - Weekly 11/6/2012 Open 3.0536, Hi 3.067, Lo 3.0536, Close 3.06 (0.3%) Vol 0 MA(Close,15)
3.800
3.700
1.700
3.600
1.600
3.500
3.400
1.500
3.300
1.400
3.0897
3.200
3.0766
1.2558
1.300
1.25239
1.23209
1.2223
1.200
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SGD= - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 19.56270, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 25.01810
2011
10 year treasury yield, American region
2012
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
25.0181
19.5627
20.0
0.0
3.07269
3.100
3.06
3.000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
MYR= - Stochastic %D(9,3,3) = 21.46463, Stochastic %K(9,3) = 26.35763
2011
2012
10 year treasury yield, EU
100.0
80.0
60.0
26.3576
40.0
21.4646
20.0
0.0
-11-
Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sources
we believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as
a recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.

CommodityMonitor Monthly Oct2012

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Monthly Commodity Markets Roundup

Softs and Plantations

> Market performance

Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Oct 2012

qty in mln.T 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 y/y chg

q/q %chg in production

Oilseed based veg oil output

qtrly production in mln.T

Table-1: Global vegetable oil production, in million tons

q/q growth, %, LHS

qtrly prodtn, in mln.T, RHS

Source: USDA, MPOB and Pacrim research

Palm oil stocks, in mln.T

Fig-3: Palm oil prices relative to other vegetable oils, prices

Palm olein discount against SBO,

Fig-2: Palm olein discount against SBO at record low

RBD olein discount against SBO, LHS

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Oct 2012

y/y chg food n fd use

y/y chg in industrial use

veg oil ending stocks, mln.T, LHS

Fig-5: World ending stocks of eight major vegetable oils

y/y chg in veg oil consumption, in

veg oil consumption trend, in mln.T

Fig-4: World consumption growth of eight major vegetable

stocks to use, %,RHS

Source: MPOB and Pacrim research

Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Oct 2012

Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Oct 2012

Wheat to Corn price ratio

Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil

CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF

SBO vs. Palm olein

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Oct 2012

Manufacturing index in US, GBP, JPY, Germany and China (% y/y)

Automobile sales in US and China

US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence

Key interest rates, in %

Consumer price inflation (YoY), %

Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research

Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Oct 2012

Price charts - Agriculture

SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous

Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous

Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous

Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous

Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous

Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous

Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Oct 2012

Price Charts Energy and Metals

Natural Gas at NYMEX,

Gold, weekly, US$ / oz

Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.

Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T

Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T

Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T