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ARGOSY TRADING CO. DEMAND SOLUTIONS FORECAST MANAGEMENT AND REQUIREMENTS PLANNING

Argosy Trading Co.

Tackles Promotions
and Seasonality

with Demand Solutions

Forecast Management

n the promotion-driven world of grocery distribution there is little room for forecast
error. Argosy Trading Company LTD, the biggest supplier to the grocery retail sector in
Cyprus, accounts for six percent of the total grocery business in the country. Argosys
distribution coverage includes 2,300 outlets consisting of hypermarkets, supermarkets,
grocery and convenience stores that account for 95 percent of the total trade.
This large, multi-tiered business was forecasted manually entirely by Microsoft Excel
spreadsheets and derived from input from the sales and marketing departments without
the involvement of anyone from the supply chain planning department.
We have a lot of national promotions and many tailor-made activities that we run each
month, explains Martha Clambaneva, planning manager at Argosy. With so many
promotions and special codes, it was hard to go back and get a true account of the sales
history in Excel. We had an advanced tool set up, which allowed us to view sales history
for the past three years, but it was not in-depth. It was not great for forecasting and more
importantly, when we did get an inaccurate forecast, we were unable to identify why.
We were also missing discipline in the process, says Forecasting Manager Charis
Theodosiadou. The Excel spreadsheets didnt give us the opportunity for improvement
of our forecast accuracy because it didnt allow for more efficient collaboration between
sales and marketing departments. They had limited access to the data, which led to misscheduled promotions and ultimately, inaccurate forecasts.

Argosy identified a laundry list of needs to

be met by a new forecasting tool improved
inventory levels, inventory turns, customer
service, warehouse utilization and cash
control; maintain optimum stock levels,
while increasing planning and marketing
productivity and efficiency.
Demand Solutions Forecast Management
and Requirements Planning were able to
bring Argosy one set of data a single view
of the truth - and it forced the group of
multi-department individuals involved in
the forecasting process to put in place new,
more efficient procedures.
With Demand Solutions, we are able to
collaborate more with other departments.
The Forecast Management tool has much
higher accuracy than the manual Excel
process and enables us to create a more
disciplined forecasting process, says

ARGOSY TRADING CO.

With Demand Solutions, we are able to collaborate more with other departments.
The Forecast Management tool has much higher accuracy than the manual Excel
process and enables us to create a more disciplined forecasting process. With
Demand Solutions Forecast Management, we increased our forecast accuracy
by 17 percent over a four month period. We maintain an average accuracy of 75-80
percent each month, said Theodosiadou.

Theodosiadou. We are able to more

accurately plan promotions and alert
people that there are inaccurate forecasts
so they can update the information.
With Demand Solutions Forecast
Management, we increased our forecast
accuracy by 17 percent over a four month
period. We maintain an average accuracy
of 75-80 percent each month.
Argosy can now connect the national
promotions with Demand Solutions
so they have a more accurate forecast
and there is little room for mistakes.
All of the information is plugged
in beforehand, making the meetings
between teams consisting of sales,
marketing and planning run faster and
more smoothly. The Demand Solutions
forecasting tool helps the team decide
on the most appropriate forecast. With
Demand Solutions in place, they were
able to reduce the time it takes to create a
forecast by two days.
In addition to better communication
and more disciplined forecasting
processes, Argosy has seen a number of
measureable improvements in several
areas. The average inventory turns have
increased from 7.35 to 8, inventory costs
have decreased by 3.1 Million Euros and
customer service levels are up six percent.
Given the economic situation in Europe
at the moment, our overall sales are
down, but Im certain that the decreased
stocking levels and improved cash flow
that Demand Solutions has provided puts
us in a much better position today than if
we had not been using Demand Solutions,
says Clambaneva.

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