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Rutger Rienks
Predictive Policing
Predictive Policing
Taking a Chance for a Safer Future
Rutger Rienks
Foreword
Crime will always be with us, at least thats what I always thought.
When I applied to join the police, another five years would pass before
the film Minority Report would be released. A film about a story d
ating
from 19561 in which three clairvoyants could predict the future and the
pre-crime department of justice could prevent offences before they had
even been committed. For me this was a boyhood dream worthy of pursuit. A safe society without crime, I was going to make sure it happened.
Three years later, in 2005, perhaps partly inspired by this film, the Police
in Development report (Board of Chief Commissioners, 2005) was published, with ten points determining the strategic course the Netherlands
police would follow. This laid down the foundations for realising the first
pre-crime department in the Netherlands.
The message was, among other things, that the police were no longer
satisfied with a passive implementing role, but want to be authoritative
trainers and facilitators as well. They want to be able to alert and advise the Public Prosecution Service, the administration and partners, in
order to make the Netherlands safer. Furthermore, information should
have a greater role in combating crime and forming relevant policy, and
Information-led Policing (IGP) should be elaborated upon. One year
later, in 2006, this development continued. The strategic vision on the
provision of police information and technology, Winking Perspective
(Board of Chief Commissioners, 2006), stated that strategy would focus
on increasing the capacity of police officers to identify criminal behaviour by means of generic alert principles and retrieving knowledge and
signals from (police) data. For the first time we were actually reading
about predictive analyses, provided in the context of determining who
may be involved in a future event.
By December 2014 the Netherlands police were on the eve of a
breakthrough in predictive policing. Over the next few years predictive
1
The Minority Report is a short science-fiction story written by Philip Dick and first published
in 1956 in the American science-fiction magazine, Fantastic Universe
methods and techniques will become common knowledge on an evenlarger scale and within a growing number of different police domains. A
bold forecast perhaps? Perhaps, but I see a number of important factors
that will play a definitive role here.
In the first place, initial national and international experiments show
that police performance can make enormous progress with the aid of
predictive techniques and methods (Schakel et al., 2012; Willems &
Doeleman, 2014). Necessary techniques such as data mining and pattern recognition have been on the market for some time now2. We can
do more with fewer resources, we are in the right place more frequently,
catch the most important criminal more frequently and we really can
anticipate some types of incidents. Secondly, the economic situation is
forcing us to become more efficient; innovation is fed by scarcity. Thirdly,
the decision to create the National Police Service means that, since 1
January 2013, our forces are bundled and volumes are being compiled
that facilitate speed and specialisation. Lastly, a fourth driver, the way in
which the police are provided with information, is being thoroughly revised by the National Police Treatment Programme. As a result, old and
variegated systems dating from the days of the regional police forces are
making way for a new national and standardised functionality capable
of making data available faster. The BVI3 development is an example of
this. Rapidly available data, in conjunction with human experience and
knowledge, are converted into action and results, so the police are finally
able to take more effective, faster and preventive action.
People sometimes ask me whether I think predictive policing is a good
development. Bet your life I do! is my reply. Who could be opposed to
the police machinery doing its work better? After all, every victim of no
matter what crime wants nothing more than the prevention of the crime
to which he or she was exposed. Of course, an important role is also
played by discussions about ethical matters and the right to privacy of
citizens versus the breach of privacy by the government. Just consider
the fact that laws are being introduced prescribing what is and what is
not allowable. The influence this has on the efficiency of the police is
2
3
The first international scientific conference on knowledge discovery and data mining
(KDD-95) was in August 1995 in Montreal, Canada
BVI stands for Basic Information Provision, the data warehouse of the Dutch National Police
immediate. On the other hand, police tasks do not really change. Acting
in accordance with current regulations and with subservience to the
competent authority ensures the actual enforcement of public order
and safety, and that the provision of help for those who need it4 remains
intact.
Because of progress in predictive policing, the police arrive at the scene
faster and they may even take action before a contingency has occurred.
The fact that in some cases this may have less pleasant consequences
than desired could be the subject of necessary new policy and legislation.
To my mind, the field of tension between what we are prepared to pay for
safety and the privacy that our society is willing to sacrifice for the sake
of safety is subject to a democratic process. It is within these agreements
that the police operate, and they must do everything possible to work as
effectively and efficiently as possible.
The world of policing is a fascinating and exciting world. No two days are
the same and there is always a demand for new and creative ideas. After
7 years spent working with the police, I felt it was time to put my ideas
to paper, because of increasing rumours surrounding the phenomenon
of predictive policing. The police service is a fantastic employer, with
wonderful colleagues who want the best for society. At the same time I
see opportunities for improvement and for more effective and efficient
policing. I hope to make a modest contribution with this booklet.
Contents
1. Introduction
15
18
25
2.
29
31
Observing crime
35
Indicators of crime
16
37
About recognising indicators and using indicators for recognition
40
45
3.
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56
61
4.
69
73
80
87
93
5.
99
106
Predicting crime
111
118
6.
An ethical consideration
123
125
128
132
7.
137
138
143
Epilogue
147
Index
149
Sources
151
Introduction
14
Predictive Policing
1.
Introduction
16
Predictive Policing
1. Introduction
17
18
Predictive Policing
1. Introduction
19
20
Predictive Policing
is an opportunity that we, the police, must not allow to pass by, and one
that, as I see it, should be particularly encouraged. Opportunities should
be grasped, in particular during this initial phase, in order to experiment
and obtain experience without enormous consequences. It represents a
challenge for the police to become adept at using this attractive resource,
with the right guarantees and at the right pace. This demands not only
the introduction of new people and new technology, as there are also
ethical and organisational challenges that deserve our attention. These
aspects are also discussed in this book, which is an initial attempt to
place the topic of predictive policing in a Dutch context while also underlining its importance. In order to increase returns for the future, it
is important that we start sharing the knowledge that is available about
predictive policing on as wide a scale as possible.
The comment should be made that increasing safety is under threat
from more than just crime. It is affected by other factors such as environmental disasters, unemployment, and how we build houses and roads.
Of course, this book focuses emphatically on crime. On the one hand
because this may be where the police can exert most influence and on
the other hand because to date this is where the main focus of predictive
policing has been.
The first known predictive-policing system was PredPol6. This system
can make predictions about future crimes based on historic data on a
type of crime, plus place and time. Categories of crime that the system
can predict include traffic accidents, drug-related incidents and theft. By
imposing a grid with cells measuring 150 by 150 metres onto a map of
a given area, e.g., a city, the individual probabilities of an incident occurring in the future can be calculated for the various cells. Studies in
Los Angeles and Kent show that PredPol can estimate high-risk areas
one-and-a-half to two times better than police analysts. Between 8 and
6% of incidents occurred in the cells designated by PredPol as high-risk
areas, in comparison with 5 to 3% for the police analysts.
Comparable systems are the Crime Anticipation System (CAS), developed by the police in Amsterdam, and the PRECOBS7 system that is used
6
7
See: The Economist Predictive Policing, dont even think about it, 20 July 2013
Software developed by the Institut fr musterbasierte prognosetechnik
http://www.ifmpt.de
(ifmPt)
1. Introduction
21
22
Predictive Policing
1. Introduction
23
This means you are better prepared with regard to certain aspects, so
beats and movements can be more specific. For example, models can
provide a specific focus by sorting locations, networks or criminals in
respect of one another. For instance, when you arrest juvenile suspects,
you can look at their past history and their potential for eventually turning into top criminals. The sooner you establish that a criminal career
is developing, the more measures are possible. And the more specific
these measures can be. For the top-600 approach in Amsterdam, for
example, very specific protocols have been drawn up for moments when
the police come into contact with one of them.
For investigations, it is possible to make predictions based on criminals
specific method of working, or modus operandi. Knowledge about a modus operandi can help determine who is the most probable perpetrator
or group of perpetrators. You can also determine which intervention
strategy has most effect on a criminal network, in combination with the
lowest possible cost price for the police. Is it better to remove a facilitator,
e.g., an arms supplier, from a criminal network, or would imprisoning
the main suspect be more effective?
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Predictive Policing
The ideal solution is to put a criminal behind bars for as long as possible
while searching for the most effective evidence. In some cases it may be
more efficient to bring a case to trial earlier, than to allow a single case
to get caught up in too much detail. Preference goes out to return for the
team. In that case, the expected additional return of pursuing the same
case is inferior to an extra case that the same team can get on with during
that (in part) same period.
Predictive models predict whether an event will occur or what the chances are that something will happen. This is independent of time and
place. As a result, the chance of an event occurring is not necessarily in
the future. Clearly, this is does not really stroke with our natural feeling
that a prediction must involve an event in the future. However, the two
questions whether an event has already occurred or whether it will
occur are comparable. Particularly when you have no knowledge of
whether something did actually take place. In all cases it is a matter of
trying to find out whether something took place, is taking place or will
take place. In fact, a prediction can be a suspicion that something will
take place, is taking place or did take place.
In this sense, the objective of investigations, determining the truth without knowing it in advance, is comparable with making a prediction.
Evidence in a case increases the suspicion that a crime has been committed. And this is the same as what indicators do for predicting a future
situation. In this sense, evidence is also an indicator or predictor. The
better the evidence, the more well-founded is the suspicion or prediction.
Where it involves a case that has been completed, you might say that the
event must have actually taken place. The evidence is complete, and the
truth has been brought to light. The arrival of predictive policing provides
criminal investigators with a new little brother: pre-investigation, which
focuses not on truth-finding in the past, but truth-finding in the future.
But when is a case actually regarded as completed? When is the risk
that something occurred in the past equal to 1? After all, it is a court
that decides whether the evidence supplied is convincing enough to
convict a person. To do this, the court considers the evidence that has
been gathered. This process, as mentioned earlier, can be equated with a
good prediction. When can we say with sufficient certainty, on the basis
of indicators, that an event has taken place, is taking place or will take
place? What is the subsequent role of predictive policing in all this, and
should we, the police, be willing to take such decisions ourselves? We
will examine this in more depth.
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Predictive Policing
Recognising criminal
behaviour
2.
30
Predictive Policing
from what I had seen. Even though we were both exposed to the same
situation.
What do you need to focus on in order to recognise this and other forms
of crime: this is the pivotal question to predictive policing. In fact, the
arousal of suspicions forms the basis for a statement about the future.
It is just possible that ... is a possible conclusion based on indicators or
signs with a predictive effect in respect of a given situation or (criminal)
phenomenon. In this connection, Mulder (2014) speaks of predictive
profiling. If we see this, then it is also possible that ... Or to put it more
succinctly: If we see A and also B and C, then it is almost certain that
In fact, this is what happened with my experienced colleague. He
totted the signs up until the moment came that he was certain enough to
draw up an official report. He exceeded a threshold value and formed a
conclusion based on the puzzle pieces he had seen. With his knowledge,
he could see and recognise the phenomenon, even though it wasnt there
according to my perception.
Being able to recognise something by paying attention to certain signals
applies not only to human trafficking. By dissecting crime and looking
at, for example, the various steps in the process that lead to a criminal offence, you can make a prediction about whether or not it will take place.
This chapter examines our ability to recognise crime. What do you need
to focus on in order to discover a crime? The faster you can predict, the
more time you have to do something about it, and the better you will be
able to take appropriate measures.
Initially this chapter discusses in general the ability to make observations
with our senses and sensors: resources that help us to observe crime. It
goes on to describe how aspects of crime can be observed that may point
to its existence. The next few paragraphs are about how these indicators
are not an automatic fact of life and how they do not always prove to be
useful. The last two paragraphs discuss the ability to observe crime using
indicators and how this enables us to make predictions.
2.
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Predictive Policing
2.
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Predictive Policing
just like a machine opt for recognition as soon as the values measured
are sufficiently in keeping with a known situation.
A human being receives data from the environment via his/her senses.
You can convert these data into information, because you are capable
of allocating them with significance (interpretation). This is what enables you to distinguish between good and evil, based on characteristics
that you have learnt over the course of time. During your life you have
accumulated an enormous reference database, which you can use to
compare signals. This enables you to determine whether you encountered the same situation previously thus recognising it and what you
think about it. To re-cognise something means, literally, to see something again. You saw it once before and you formed an idea about it.
Sometimes situations remind you of something, but you cant quite
remember what. You know there is an association with a past event, but
you are unable to recall which event at the moment.
The police sometimes use the term gut feeling to describe this non-explicit knowledge. A police officer is often not immediately able to clearly
state exactly what he feels. But he has developed antennae for crime as
a result of years of exposure to many forms of crime. You could also call
it a form of professionalism or conditioning, whereby cause-and-effect
relationships are formed by experience.
Vice versa, it is also the case that you can start searching for phenomena,
while focusing your senses on observations that fit in with the phenomenon. When forensic investigative experts arrive at the scene of a crime,
they know exactly where to look in order to discover as many clues as
possible. They are trained in making specific observations. This is similar to undercover officers who develop a nose for pick-pockets, or officers
at a football stadium who can immediately spot the hooligans.
In fact, you can form a picture of a situation from various observations.
The same applies to a criminal situation. The converse also applies: if
you know that a criminal situation is involved, you can try to learn or
find out which observations are relevant. These two forms of observation
are also referred to as data-driven and model-driven. The first form,
data-driven, asks what you can see with the help of all the data that are
2.
35
available to us. The other form, model-driven, assumes that you are searching for a phenomenon and asks which data are needed into order to
find it. Recall, for example, the observations of my experienced colleague
who concluded that human trafficking was involved.
Observing crime
It was in the early 19th century that people started to measure relationships between social and criminological factors in search of explanations
for the occurrence of social phenomena such as crime. Francis Galton
and Adolphe Quetelet were among the first to do this with the help of
mathematical techniques (Wright, 2009). Over the course of the years,
crime has been connected with physical, psychological and social factors,
to name a few. Cesare Lambroso claimed that certain facial characteristics were related to criminal behaviour. With the right experience, you
could literally see whether a person was a criminal. Shaw and McKay
(1969) contended that criminal behaviour in individuals was more likely
to be caused by the environment, e.g., the district in which they grew
up. Sutherland (1924) argued that criminal behaviour was acquired and
Cohen (1955) sought explanations in the social group in which a person
grew up.
Even nowadays, some of this knowledge is used to predict crime, in a
generic sense, for example, by comparing circumstances in neighbourhoods and districts. But also in a more specific sense, the chance of a
criminal career is examined on an individual level.
In order to recognise crime at an early stage you have to examine not
only the perpetrator and the environment, but also the characteristic activities that end in crime. For example, activities that could indicate preparative actions for terrorist attacks (Mulder, 2014) or meetings between
important links in criminal networks. An example is a situation in which
a group of persons, almost all in the same location, all turn off their
mobile phones simultaneously. Or when people who are known to the
police rent a deserted warehouse and pay for it with cash in large denominations. It is particularly this knowledge about crime, and the process
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Predictive Policing
leading up to it, that can help to recognise crime as early as possible, and
as a result be able to take timely action.
In the example of the experienced policeman, it is clear that he recognised human trafficking because he possessed knowledge about the
phenomenon. Using this knowledge enabled him to recognise the phenomenon. Clearly a case of, in the language of Johan Cruijff, You dont
see it until you get it. Human trafficking can clearly be recognised from
more and different properties than those I had assumed, involving
a listless, bruised woman staring out her window. In other words you
must be able to observe the indicators once you know which indicators
signify a criminal phenomenon. Recognising crime can, in my opinion,
definitely be regarded as professionalism. It is professionalism, because
not everyone has the gift of such insight. Being able to say which vehicle
you should check or on which corner of the street you want to stop and
keep a look-out for pick-pockets. Experienced officers and detectives are
renowned for their nose for crime. The challenge is to be able to share
these antennae and the knowledge of officers, and make them independent of individuals. Making this knowledge explicit and retrieving it
from the heads of officers and detectives not only increases the range of
this knowledge, as the possibility of making predictions also increases
proportionately. It allows members of the police organisation to learn
from one another and innovation will be accelerated (Mascitelli, 2000).
The art of recognising the characteristics of crime demands knowledge
or experience that can be learned by exposure in practice. Moreover,
transferring images, words or written documents gives others an opportunity to learn to recognise the forms of crime we want to trace. In this
way, stereotypical indicators, scenarios, behaviours and profiles that indicate crime can be used to support others in the task of recognition. The
ideal profile is one that has been reduced to a minimum discerning set of
characteristics of a phenomenon8. After all, the fewer aspects that need
to be recognised, the easier it becomes. If the driver of a vehicle with two
young ladies in the back seats has the passports of these women and
the women in question do not know their final destination, this could
indicate human trafficking. The combination expensive car and young
2.
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Indicators of crime
In order to recognise crime, it helps if you know what causes crime:
knowledge about characteristic activities and indicators in relation to
persons, locations or other forms of activities. In principle, all activities
that take place when a crime is committed provide landmarks and entry points for early recognition and intervention. Specific knowledge is
required about the processes that lead to a crime in order to prevent
specific crimes.
Highly complicated and philosophical discussions have taken place
about exactly what knowledge that is and how it can be accessed. Plato
claimed, for instance, that man already has all possible knowledge before
he is born and that the trick is to be able to access it again during his life.
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2.
39
while normal matters often go unnoticed. In general, you could say that
people have certain normative ideas for situations about what is normal
and what is abnormal.
Being able to recognise what is different often depends on your experience of something. Psychologists use the term priming for this. In
interrogation situations, for example, suspects often use certain types of
arguments or excuses. They want to convince their interrogators that,
far from being guilty, they are actually the victim. Once you know this,
you are more likely to notice and recognise these stories.
A question often encountered when drawing up indicators and profiles
is whether one really can generalise? Is there such a thing as typical behaviour for a serial rapist or for a radicalising jihadist? Can all criminals
simply be lumped together or compared with one another? Shouldnt
each situation be assessed individually? In fact, isnt the interpretation
of every observation subjective? An officer might label a man running
through the street as a thief, while an athlete simply sees a jogger. And
is a person who purchases a lot of enormous lamps really a potential cultivator of marijuana? Indicators should not be too specific. This causes
you to miss some forms of the same type of crime, those that cannot be
intercepted using that specific characteristic. Nor should an indicator be
too generic, as this runs the risk of finding more cases than those you
want to find.
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Predictive Policing
The trick is to determine the right indicators (whether or not jointly) that
will enable you to predict a certain phenomenon. You could compare this
to choosing the right fishing net for the police. Depending on the type of
net you use, you will catch a certain type of fish (i.e. criminal). A number
of considerations play a role here. With combinations of observed indicators, it is sometimes important to be absolutely certain that you have
found what you were looking for (which may mean missing some cases),
while in other cases a few errors are of little consequence. This could
depend on the action that is linked to the observation.
2.
41
person has white hair while all the others, except for one, have dark hair.
The distinguishing characteristic is good in both cases, but the scope
for solutions is greater with 30 people. After all, there are more from
which to choose. Where the scope for solutions is larger, it results almost
automatically in the chance that good distinguishing characteristics becomes scarcer relative to others. As a result you will have to work with a
combination of characteristics more frequently in order to still be able to
identify the person as unique.
In some cases you will be able to simplify recognition of the best indicators or evidence. For example, by specifically labelling objects and
persons. Jewellers, for instance, use DNA-spray to cover the perpetrators
of robberies with a substance that is difficult to remove. Recognising
this substance can subsequently place the perpetrator at the scene of
the crime. Shops sometimes install detection portals for RFID-labels in
order to recognise theft. The labels attached to goods are disabled after
payment for the goods has been received. In this way, detection portals
near a shops exit can suddenly make illegal appropriation plausible.
The ability to observe can be extended by adapting technology to specific
situations.
The crux in the automatic observation of higher-order phenomena such
as crime is having one or more distinguishing characteristics that are
practical and which can be observed independently9. Do sensors or circuits exist that actually make the observations you want? The purpose
of which is, in the end, to have access to those distinguishing characteristics that enable to you realise recognition with sufficient certainty.
Take stolen cars for instance. These can be automatically recognised if
you can compare passing vehicles with a list of stolen vehicles. With the
help of ANPR (Automatic Number Plate Recognition), a roadside camera
can read the number plate of a passing vehicle. Comparing this number
plate to the file with stolen vehicles creates a possibility for observing
stolen vehicles.
Systems, like people, are getting better at observing indicators and
distinguishing between what is normal and what is deviant. This is the
basis to the automatic recognition of crime. Clearly, people provided
9
In addition to sensors, other sources are often needed, such as databases with reference data
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knowledge about how to recognise criminal behaviour, and the technology was specially developed for this. Even systems can make errors. The
more complex the situation being recognised, the greater the chance of
an error. In fact, observations by machines are comparable to those of
people. Things sometimes go wrong. This is not always disastrous, but
it can be annoying if it turns out that they are not reliable in all cases.
Consider the example of a judge who forms a picture of an event based
on the evidence supplied and who wrongly convicts someone. From the
perspective of society, wrongly convicting a person is unacceptable. In
such matters, all uncertainties must be removed. Convincing evidence of
a crime must exist. This means that in this specific situation the chance
of errors must be kept to a minimum. The challenge is, particularly with
predictions on de future, to achieve this adequately.
The same can be said of predictive policing. This too is about forming
a picture in order to be able to describe a situation, comparing it with
known situations and making predictions. Predictions are not always
correct. Just as a murder will not always be solved or an attack will not
always be prevented. Preferably, a prediction should be as good and as
pure as possible. This is all about chance and probability. At the same
time, not everything is amenable to being predicted, and predictions
cannot always be made in the same way. After all, predicting a murder
is slightly different from predicting a speeding offence. Does ordering
clean towels for a hotel room that is frequented by a lot of men always
indicate human trafficking? In all cases the objective is to make the best
possible prediction and minimise the risk of possible errors.
Indicators and profiles can help because they help to simplify realities
that are often complex. However, this also results in a risk of so-called
false positives. These are persons, situations or objects that fulfil the
characteristics of the indicator or profile, but which subsequently are not
representative of the compilation you sought. Relying on systems that
carry out automatic observations involves the risk of false positives. For
instance, the young driver of an expensive auto may not be a criminal
but a professional footballer. Theoretically, profiles must contain precisely those distinguishing elements that are specific to the type of crime
indicated by the profile.
2.
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Predictive Policing
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conditions for penalization and thus, simultaneously, the legal characteristics of a crime. The moment that an officer has sufficient suspicion to
make an arrest is the moment that the picture is sufficiently complete
to conclude that theft has been committed. For the officer, that is, not as
yet for a court. In fact, the officer is making a form of prediction based
on his observation: a prediction about the actual occurrence of the crime,
in the supposition that at a later stage it can be proved and the court will
draw the same conclusion.
Notice here the analogy with the observation of the experienced colleague
who was able to recognise human trafficking. With theft, it is the components that make it explicit that something is going on. This is a rule
that has been agreed and has been incorporated into a section of the law.
A rule that prescribes what things we must consider in order to be able
to prove theft. These types of rules are also known as knowledge rules.
They form the framework that you must examine in order to conclude
theft in this specific case. The components determine, in cohesion, the
conclusion. The fact that a person has three telephones does not, in
itself, say much, nor does the fact that someone takes something away
from somewhere. It is the sum of the observed components which, in
cohesion, lead to a certain probability that a phenomenon is taking place.
Or that you can draw a conclusion.
Something similar takes place during investigations. The use of hypotheses and scenarios enables us to form pictures of what might have happened. For instance, in order to arrive at via a motive a perpetrator.
In fact, you are making predictions about the past that you try to prove
by collecting clues or other points of reference that correspond with the
picture. A certain method of work or modus operandi used during a
burglary can result in a picture of a possible perpetrator. The addition of
extra relevant information makes it easier for you to determine whether
the suspect really is the perpetrator.
The objective of prosecution is truth-finding. In fact the focus is only on
reconstructing the past, whereby the police act reactively. This reduces
the chance that a suspect did not do something to a minimum. However,
in the case of pre-construction, or truth-finding for the future, reducing
the chance of incorrect decisions to a minimum is just as important,
particularly if the police act proactively and preventively.
2.
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Reliability
In fact, a prediction itself is a chance, namely the chance that an event will occur.
The probability that a situation such as the above-mentioned burglary will occur
is always between 0 and 100 per cent. If there is a 10% probability of a burglary,
then this is a small probability. The expectation is that about 1 out of 10 cases
will actually involve a burglary. In the theory of probability, this is referred to as
the chance of an event occurring. This is always between 0 and 1. If the chance
is 1, then the expectation is 100% that something will be the case and when the
chance is 0, this is 0 per cent. The reliability of a predicted chance says how much
confidence we can have in a prediction. Reliability says something about the
preclusion of errors or about the stability of a system. The fewer errors there are,
the better. This stability can be measured, for example, by carrying out tests. The
more often a prediction is good, the more stable it is. This too can be measured, in
terms of robustness and performance. These too often lie somewhere between 0
and 1. If reliability is 0, then the results of a prediction are completely unreliable.
If it is 1, then the outcome of the prediction will always correlate with reality.
By formulating various pictures hypotheses in advance, you can focus your search for clues in order to reconstruct or prove a presumed
situation. Clues from, e.g., an on-site investigation or interrogations
can be used to compile a picture of what happened. The picture can
be completed in more detail as evidence is collected. This is a form of
truth-finding whose purpose is eventually to be able to establish, with
sufficient certainty or evidence, what happened in the past. Hypotheses
for which most supportive material has been found are more likely to
be accepted as the truth. Analogies can be found in hospitals, with the
triage-system in the casualty department. Urgency as well as the route
through a hospital is determined based on a number of characteristics.
A similar process can be seen with prenatal research. This involves making predictions based on specific values for the blood and the amniotic
fluid, e.g., about the viability of a foetus. This is not about what happened, but rather it is an attempt to estimate how matters stand in order
to be able to act (or treat) as effectively as possible in the future.
In a more general sense, the term suspicion is actually a prediction. A
crime has been committed, but you cannot be absolutely certain whether
anyone will actually be convicted. A suspicion always involves some form
of prediction. There is a real chance. But when is that chance big enough
for a court to be able to declare the crime proven? In a legal sense, there
is greater certainty that a crime has been committed in a case involving
serious objections than in a case of a suspicion. Where is the boundary
between suspicion and evidence? This is a relevant question here. Pos-
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10 This is also referred to as the `Unus testis, nullus testis principle, see article 342, para. 2 of
the Code of Criminal Procedure
11 Article 39 of the Penal Code
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increases the chance of antisocial behaviour, such as burglaries. Moreover, if a burglary has already been committed once, there is a bigger
chance that burglars will strike again in the same location (Townsley
et al., 2003). All these aspects have their own predictive value and each
of them contributes its own weight to the prediction of an event. The
chance that my home will be burgled is also greater if a known burglar
has just been released, or if someone in the neighbourhood was burgled
recently. The more of this type of predictive indicators there are, the bigger the chance of a crime, in this case, theft.
Sometimes indicators are clearly obvious for people and sometimes,
as in the case of recognising human trafficking, relevant knowledge is
required. Indicators that help to predict crime, however, can always be
found in the process that leads to a crime. This is inevitable, as the crime
has not yet been committed. The focus of predictive policing is to recognise patterns and indicators that are related with processes that indicate
future crimes. The next steps are making a risk-estimate and taking possible measures to prevent a crime. This is the subject of the next chapter.
From recognition to
appropriate action
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Predictive Policing
and whether a witness actually has any added value. How long ago was it
that the incident occurred, have conversations about the situation taken
place with others in the meantime, and was the witness really able to
observe the situation? Each and every one of these aspects must be examined in order to make an assessment of whether obtaining an objective
picture of a situation is possible.
Unlike situations in which the police respond mainly to signals and
reports of wrongdoings that have already taken place, predictive policing
is mainly about taking action before wrongdoings have taken place. This
requires the police to be more alert to different forms of signals and reports. With predictive policing a picture does not have to be constructed
in order to determine the truth; instead the clearest and most reliable
possible picture has to be constructed in order to arrive at estimated
threats and risk assessments of a future situation.
Whether the police takes action depends on the picture they have formed
of a situation. They go to the location, start an investigation or initiate
another type of intervention. The action they take is closely linked to
their assessment of the situation. Whether it involves reported domestic
violence via 112 (emergency number) or the future release of a known
sex offender, they will try to form a picture of the situation and the accompanying risks and weigh up the different intervention scenarios
against one another. Is this a situation that was expected or not? Can it
be regarded as a standard situation? Is a standard solution available? Or
should we, the police, quickly concoct a prescription, similarly to a doctor
who determines a diagnosis in the casualty department of a hospital?
The type of intervention subsequently chosen depends not only on the
picture that has been formed of the situation, but also on the resources
available for deployment. On holiday in Jerusalem when in my early
twenties, I still remember my amazement as I stood watching a sort of
frogman marching across a large plain towards a small travellers backpack in front of the holy Wailing Wall. As I saw it, this was entirely out
of all proportion. The whole plain was evacuated and hundreds of people
stood watching from behind the barrier tapes. In view of the situation,
this was either so threatening that such a measure was deemed necessary, or they had no other instrument that could be deployed. Another
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possible scenario, i.e., that they were putting on a show for political reasons, for example, is in my opinion less probable.
This chapter is about appropriate ways of combating crime, how to
prevent it and how to respond to a given sets of findings. Once again,
the police can increasingly take advantage of modern technology. A
growing armamentarium is available for observing, recording, sharing
and converting signals into indicators that can support decision-making
processes. Technology is increasing possibilities and enabling the police
to make more accurate observations, interpret them faster and respond
in more appropriate and varied ways. As a result predictive policing is
rapidly becoming reality.
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13 In multi-agent technology, one also speaks of beliefs and desires which co-determine the
reaction of a system
14 http://chess-db.com
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from the past, predictions can be made about the chance of successful
future interventions. It is rather like constructing the chess database.
Based on the accumulated knowledge we can combat criminal activities
more effectively once we know how to recognise them at an early stage.
And that is precisely what predictive policing is all about. Depending
on a criminals chosen scenario, an intervention proposal with proven
efficacy can be chosen from a reference database, so that we may even be
able to prevent the crime.
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There are several ways of combating crime. Goldstein (1979) was one of
the first to suggest that the police should change their role from a reactive one to a more pro-active role. He also said that not only did we have
to collect knowledge about crime but also knowledge about the best and
most relevant methods of combating crime. In order to become more
effective, the police should focus in particular on dealing with the underlying problems that lead to crime. Environmental design and social
development, e.g., creating jobs and combating poverty, would do much
more to combat crime (Schneider, 2015).
Government crime prevention programmes focussed therefore on, e.g.,
psychological and social causes, by providing individuals and high risk
groups with courses or sport programmes. These focus on keeping
people off the street, teaching them standards and offering more opportunities for participating in society. The expectation is that tackling
poverty will make people less likely to take up a life of crime. These types
of interventions reduce the motives for committing a criminal act.
An alternative to social development exists that is known as situational
crime prevention or the theory of opportunity. This is a more short-term
form of prevention and is based partly on the rational choice theory
(Scott, 2000), whereby a criminal weighs up the costs and benefits of an
opportunity (Becker, 1968). The idea is to make the opportunity less attractive and the costs higher than the benefits. By reducing the opportunity or the criminogenic conditions in an environment, the opportunity
for a criminal becomes less attractive in the sense that either the costs
increase, or the benefits are reduced.
Making the opportunity less attractive creates a chance of ancillary effects occurring. The so-called waterbed effect could serve as an example
of this. This effect is where crime occurs less frequently in certain places
or at certain times, while in other places it actually increases. This results
in a sort of cat-and-mouse game in which the police force a criminal to
make changes. Determining the extent to which this effect will actually
occur is difficult and depends on factors relating to, e.g., the speed of
introducing an intervention, the chosen intervention mix or the focus
that may or may not already have been given to certain forms of crime.
In tackling skimming, for instance, whereby bank cards are copied and
PIN codes are observed at cash dispensers, a number of interventions
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carried out together with partners were so successful that this phenomenon hardly ever occurs nowadays. Whether the criminal has been curbed
in undertaking criminal activities is an entirely different question. And
this question may actually be much more important. After all, these
criminals may have shifted their domain to entirely different forms of
mobile banditry, such as pickpocketing (Siegel, 2013).
It seems that limiting the opportunity does reduce the total amount of
crime. This is despite the fact that some of the criminals do seek out
a different opportunity or a different type of crime (Clarke, 1997). An
explanation of the latter could be that criminals must adjust their behaviour in order to continue to be successful. Continual adjustment costs a
criminal energy, and excessive energy coupled with too high a cost price
eventually result in exhaustion. Clarke (1982) referred to this as social
and physical forms of crime prevention.
Physical and mental crime prevention focuses on the opportunity. Costs
are allowed to increase so that committing a criminal act becomes less
attractive. This could be because getting hold of the loot demands greater
physical effort and the chance of being caught increases, but also because, for instance, committing a speeding offence is more difficult with
bumps in the road. The government prevents crime by erecting barriers.
An example is the introduction of laws and legislation on aspects that
can contribute to crime, such as limiting trade in weapons or regulating
the raw materials for synthetic drugs. Benefits are reduced by reducing
potential profits.
Laws in the Penal Code also have a preventive effect as the prospect of
prison sentences and fines also help to prevent crime. Punishments
are not only to retaliate for inflicted suffering, but also to discourage
criminals from straying again from the straight and narrow (Wartna et
al., 2013). The graver the crime, the greater the negative prospects for
the criminal. This boosts the mental costs. In the so-called what works
approach (Andrews & Bonta, 1998), empirical research is helping us
examine the conditions under which certain measures and punishments
offer perspective on prevention and preventing recidivism. Research by
Wartna et al. (2013) shows on the one hand that interventions focussing
on adults are more successful in reducing the chance of recidivism than
those for other age groups. On the other hand, it seems that rehabilita-
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Needless to say, although the factors mentioned do contribute to a bigger chance of criminal behaviour, this does not necessarily mean that a
person who grows up in a broken home which is in a bad living environment and who also drops out of school is automatically an habitual
offender. Indeed: an examination of the above-mentioned studies shows
that, in general, men aged between 18 and 35 years, both habitual offenders and non-habitual offenders, are over-represented in displaying
criminal behaviour. Once again, this does not mean that all men in this
age category are automatically criminals. So how does it work then?
Which of these aspects would you most like to know, and which of the
factors that I mentioned has the greatest direct link with crime? In other
words, what is the weight of the factor and is this affected or not by
the presence of other factors? Making a good prediction and making a
success of predictive policing depends on this. But how do we actually
find these factors and is it always the case that the combined presence of
several factors can make a prediction even stronger? The next chapter
discusses this in more detail.
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4.
Similarly to sensors, our senses can receive and pass on signals. They
supply our brains or systems with input and function as a source of data.
A source that receives signals and then transmits them in a given form.
Senses pass stimuli on to our brain, where they are interpreted as a feeling, sound, image, or some other dimension. This is similar to how
sensors work. Cameras, microphones and other sensors receive signals
and transmit them to another part of an automated system. They transmit the signals received in the form of data that are processed elsewhere,
externally to the sensor.
Receiving information and data is an important aspect of the work of
many police departments. We sometimes find out much later whether
the information is of any use. Take the example of recording confidential
communication between two suspects, or clues that are collected by forensic detectives. Volatile signals are, unlike some clues, extremely transient. Signals are converted into data when stored. In some cases simply
retrieving data can provide added value. For example, for interpretation
or recognition at a later date, such as sound recordings of a conversation
in a foreign language. After storage, a situation can be retrieved repeatedly for investigation purposes, which may result in more aspects being
noticed, and thus greater understanding. A precondition to predictive
policing is that the police can access and process data, information and
knowledge. This chapter shows just why this is.
Recording data means they can be shared and makes it possible to process them at a later date. This started with ancient civilisations who left
drawings behind in caves and scratched symbols onto stones. In todays
digital, networked society (Castells, 2000), messages can be sent all over
the world electronically and via modern means of communication
at the drop of a hat, so that exchanging, storing and processing data is
much simpler than it used to be. By storing data received via signals that
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would otherwise have been lost, we can use them later when investigating crimes, just as we do, for example, when seizing goods.
The data represent signals received and are often nothing more than
actual observations of a situation at a given moment. Subjecting data to
early filtering or refinement reduces the amount of data. Often we want
to retain the more relevant data, thereby increasing the chance of it being
valuable. Transforming data makes them easier to process. These are all
steps in transforming data into knowledge that enables individuals or
organisations to perform better.
Many different definitions of data exist and they are regularly confused
with such concepts as information and knowledge (Liew, 2007). In this
book, data is used only to mean data. Data form the building bricks of
communication. They represent unusable facts until they have been organised or an interpretation model has become available. Data generally
come in the form of stored symbols such as numbers, words, diagrammes or images. Data can also be the final product of signals received.
Generally, collecting data haphazardly is not an objective in itself. Collecting data objectively and selectively makes it simpler to find the information one seeks. Indeed, just as the police cannot simply seize goods,
neither can data simply be collected or stored. Relevant terms in this
respect are proportionality and purpose limitation. Data and information
that are to be used as evidence must have been collected legally. Recording confidential communication, for example, is regulated in article
126l of the Code of Criminal Procedure, and article 126m applies if data
are collected by automatic data processing and not by a person. The
provision of data is also bound by rules. For example, the Police Data
Act (WPG, Wet Politiegegevens) allows certain forms of processing and
providing police data (whether or not automatically), thereby stipulating
relevant terms and conditions. The WPG also contains information
about accuracy, completeness and security requirements in respect of
these data.
For the rest, article 1a of the WPG defines police data as being limited
to personal data that can be processed within the framework of carrying
out the police task. These are data relating to a person or based on which
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a persons identity can be deduced. Data other than personal data that
can be processed within the framework of carrying out the police task
can also be designated as police data, but these are beyond the scope of
this law. For example, data about police-deployment or crime statistics.
Nor does the WPG say anything about the provision of knowledge.
Incidentally, seizing data, in a legal sense, is still problematic. This is
because, according to article 94 of the Code of Criminal Procedure, only
objects (including those capable of ascertaining the truth) are eligible
for seizure. Data are, in this context, not an object15. Data are an abstract
concept. Data carriers, on the other hand, can be seized. Therefore, when
suspicion arises that data recorded on a data carrier could be used for
truth-finding, only the carrier is eligible for seizure.
Interpreting data can result in information. For example, if they are
presented in a usable context, in a way that is newsworthy and which
helps to reduce uncertainty. Information is a message with a meaning,
intended to enable us to make decisions, create opportunities or solve
problems. This means that if you know the purpose for which available
data will be used, they can become information. The reverse is also the
case: if you know which information you want to supply, you can think
about which data you will need.
Finally, by knowledge we mean what we know, believe and expect. Knowledge is described as meaningful information. It has also been described
as a map of the world that we compile based on information received. It
is our human reference database that we call experience or tacit knowledge, and which individuals accumulate throughout their lives. In this
way knowledge creates value because it results in understanding and
has the capacity to recognise, reason and assess how to act and to learn.
Knowledge is often linked to knowing. Knowing how or knowing why
something happens, for example. It is about the possibility of being able
to reason about cause and effect.
Data, information and knowledge can be stored, processed and handed
over. With the help of modern technology, data processing can take place
15 Article 94a, para. 6 of the Code of Criminal Procedure says that the term objects refers to all
matters and proprietary rights
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about their friends, or even falsely put the blame on a criminal enemy.
All these aspects should be taken into account before such information
is processed internally. In other words, the predicted added value of a
source also depends on the reliability of the source. This reliability may
be independent of any value of the data and/or information that could be
obtained as a result.
A lot can also be said about the reliability of, for example, witnesses statements. Apart from the fact that people make errors, whether consciously
or not, our brains can also fill in missing information and memories become blurred with time. People may also be influenced by other peoples
stories about the same situation (Wright et al., 2009). When checking
the reliability of a statement, it is important to search for relevant clues
that could be of help. How much time has passed since the incident took
place, what was the exact position of the witness, does his story have any
inconsistencies, does it tally with the stories of other witnesses and has
he or she been in contact with them? Did the witness make an earlier
statement and what do we know about that? A prediction can be made
about the reliability of the source depending on the outcomes of these
questions.
Apart from being sufficiently reliable, sources should also provide sufficient added value in order to be usable. Sources must contain useful
data, information or knowledge. Making good predictions about such
matters can be very difficult. Sometimes information only proves to be
relevant retrospectively, contrary to initial expectations. Nevertheless,
here too certain guidelines can be drawn up. For instance, did the source
prove useful in the past or can the source be expected to supply relevant
information at all? You could compare this, for example, to the usefulness of clues. Some clues can quickly be linked to a perpetrator or a
crime, while others cant. Collecting too many clues from a crime-scene
could be too time-consuming for a clue-processing authority, while collecting too few clues could minimize the chance of added value in an
investigation. In this context, this is referred to as the evidential value
or distinguishing capacity of a clue or information source. The more
distinctive the information source is, the more added value it often supplies. Moreover, a sources added value often increases if an authority or
a different source can validate the information.
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But which data are not only useful to the police but also available? Which
sources are needed in order to maintain law and order when decisions
about the latter need to be taken. What does predictive policing have
to offer in this context? An enormous amount of data are available
within the police organisation itself. Not only our own data, but those
of others too. Just think of all the incidents that have been recorded in
police systems. These represent events recorded by officers according to
their perceptions and these often also include what action was taken and
whether this resulted in an arrest or another action.
The police have sufficient sources with access to information about the
people and resources that can be deployed and about any action that was
taken in certain situations. Examples are administrative data on officers,
when they can be deployed and what powers they have. But we also have
information about which vehicles are available and which police stations
are open. When a control centre receives a report about an incident, it
helps to have a list of available units as a basis for making a decision on
which unit to send to the situation. Without this information it is really
difficult to make any decision, let alone the right decision, for maintaining law and order.
Whether it is about truth-finding or about maintaining law and order,
it is important to be able to retrieve, record and process data and information. Even if only to be able to guarantee process continuity when
employment contracts end. In the past most data were obtained by officers or detectives out on the streets (pull). But citizens can contribute
information too, for instance, by reporting a crime (push). The arrival
of the internet in the middle of the nineteen-nineties made it possible
to send photographs and video recordings to the police, and nowadays
there are systems that can transmit real-time camera images from an
alarm centre to the police, for instance in the event of a raid16. By monitoring internet services such as web fora and social media services such
as Twitter, we can obtain not only information and data from the real
world, but also images from the digital world, and here also law can be
enforced and crime detected.
16 http://www.police.nl/onderwerpen/live-view.html
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Unlocking relevant sources can prove to be a formidable task. For instance, seizing a data carrier is completely different from gaining access
to the deep-web, a closed section of the internet that cannot be accessed
using search engines. We sometimes have to resort to using software in
the form of webcrawlers or spiderbots in order to access sources automatically and over distance. Moreover, browsing through such sources
demands advanced techniques, whereby in some cases even the security
of the data or the data carrier itself has to be breached. Clearly, accessing
the data and information one seeks is not always an easy task.
It has become essential that the police are able to cope with enormous
quantities of digital data and information in order to continue to fulfil its
tasks. Not only do they need to access the data, they also need to be able
to process them in order to convert them into information or use them
to generate evidence. In the case of data carriers that have been seized,
for example, there is every chance that they contain terabytes of data.
This makes it increasingly difficult to gather the right information or
data. Just where is that one little piece of evidence, or what will it take to
reconstruct a time-line of activities? The police cannot afford to lose sight
due to the amount of data. They have to wade through the data and still
be able to see the information and knowledge. The ability to cope with
big-data, to succeed in managing it, is in itself a specialised task.
Officers enter information about suspect situations, incidents and
others forms of activities into the same registration system, the National Law Enforcement Database (BVH). Investigators working on cases
record their actives in a different system (SummIT). This is resulting
in a collective organisation-wide information position that allows colleagues throughout the entire country to access information practically
real-time that was entered elsewhere. In the future the entire police
organisation will have a single system for recording activities and experiences. It is true that all sorts of authorisation limitations apply regarding
personal data within the context of the WPG, but policy is share, unless.... The objective of which is to keep the information position of the
organisation in synch.
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In order to obtain this insight and make the information more newsworthy, it is also important to examine which sources are relevant to the
task that has to be carried out and any decisions this will involve. This
phase is also referred to as data preparation. In this case a newspaper
could provide added value, as also could recent stories from colleagues
or mutations entered into police systems. The source must be available
and must contain reliable information.
As a result of the knowledge and experience people have obtained, everyone has certain preferences for a certain type of source or knows about
its existence. Other sources can be used to search for relevant sources. In
fact, this is comparable to the process of searching for the right witness
or for the most distinguishing information. Once a selection has been
made and the source files are available, the data can be retrieved and
integrated into a single set, whether or not in a different form. Compare
this to drawing up a briefing prior to the demonstration itself. The information and data could come from different sources and they will all
be included in one way or another, depending on the briefing template.
This results in uniformity and makes it possible to compare different
items to one another (Dean et al., 2008).
Sometimes, the ideal form for the data may not be immediately accessible or extra information may be needed in order to provide specific
details. This is known as pre-processing. In this phase, for example,
text-mining algorithms17 are used to allocate extra labels to data so they
can be compared to one another. For instance, it is helpful to introduce
structure if data are only available in an unstructured form. Using entity
recognition or another type of tagging engine, a sentence including the
words Dam 12 could be allocated the extra information that this may
involve a possible location. Developing such labellers or tagging engines,
which is a science in itself, actually makes small predictions about the
significance of certain data that fulfil a certain profile (Song et al., 2008).
You could say that the information undergoes an excel-like transformation after which additions can be made. People do this on social media,
for example, by naming the people who appear on photographs so they
17 Text-mining can be used to recognise words and the group connected with this word can, for
example, be added as a label. For instance, dam 12 could be labelled location and car could
be labelled vehicle
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have been allocated a value. This means we can predict a location with a
degree of probability if we are familiar with the topic and we can predict
whether there is a chance that a demonstration will get out of control.
In a certain sense, a prediction is the chance of a situation occurring,
whereby the challenge is to maximise the reliability of this chance. If we
infer a 100% chance with a high reliability of a demonstration getting
out of control, then it would be wiser to take action than not. This could
involve, for example, taking extra precautionary measures in the form of
having an extra ME platoon as back-up or by providing additional visible
supervision in the form of mounted police. Based on our current data we
cannot say much about precisely what the best action is, other than entering into a discussion with the organisers or the mayor. For instance,
about whether or not to postpone or relocate the event. Postponement
would probably avoid a lot of turmoil. It this is not possible then, based
on the data collected, we could make a statement about the possibility of
a different location. After all, lessons from the past may show that we can
reduce the risk of escalation by opting for a different location.
Naturally, this example is only about demonstrations, but we can easily
extend this example to other events of types of crime. The question of
whether we can predict the occurrence of certain events with sufficient
certainty should become apparent from 1) whether sufficient quantities
of the right data and information have been gathered, and 2) whether
any links between certain variables are strong enough to form a basis
for drawing conclusions and expectations. This is where the theory of
probability and statistics comes in and makes statements about, e.g., the
minimum number of demonstrations needed to be able to say with a
degree of reliability18 whether a situation will actually get out of control
or not.
In this case, the event we want to predict is whether the demonstration
will get out of control; this is also referred to as the target variable or
dependent variable. The topic of the demonstration, the location and the
number of demonstrators are also referred to as independent variables.
If there is a clear relationship between the dependent and the indepen18 A criterion for this could be, for example, the 95% reliability interval that is used to be able to
make a certain assumption. The term used for this is the probability value of
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whether a person does or does not have a high risk of recidivism. Recognising such relevant variables and predictive characteristics from data
in relation to a target variable is also known as model-building or model
induction. It can best be compared with a search for the best combination of indicators which will either jointly or separately and in a given
sequence result in the best prediction.
In the case of trying to predict a possible perpetrator, you could compare
it with the Milton Bradley game Guess Who. For the sake of convenience, lets say Who is the villain. Two players receive a card showing a
villain, and each of them have 24 possible suspects on the table in front
of them. The players take turns to ask questions about characteristics
of the villain. For instance, whether he/she wears glasses or not, has
blond hair, etc. The idea is to be the fastest to discover which villain your
opponent has in his hands. And you do this by taking turns to ask a
single question, to which the answer can only be Yes or No After each
turn, the players flip down the images of suspects who do not have the
characteristic mentioned.
Several strategies can be used to win the game. If the plan is to play only
one game, then really large risks can be taken by asking specific questions that only relate to a single, unique person, for example, a yellow
feather on a hat. The possible consequence of doing this is that after the
players turn a large number of images remain upright, or he has already
won. After entering all suspects characteristics into a file, it is just a
matter of calculating in order to discover that certain characteristics will
always lead to success if questions are asked in the right sequence and
the outcome of the previous question is taken into account. In other
words, maximising the chance of success. It is these indicators, the ones
with the greatest distinguishing capacity, which help us make quick and
pure predictions.
The models found can eventually be tested in order to see how well they
perform. This can be done using training data that are already known
to have predictive value and, for example, whether a burglary has taken
place or not. The models are tested on 90% of these data, which means
they are tested 10 times, each time using a different 10% as test-set.
The average score of a model is then a standard for how well the model
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without needing the original source. People can also share knowledge
with one another (Smith, 2004). An organisation becomes collectively
more intelligent when knowledge is transferred, which gives it an edge
over competitors. In the case of the police, you could say that the competition we face is the criminal outside world.
Recording, sharing and using knowledge are individual steps, each
with their own challenges. A number of techniques exist for obtaining
knowledge from people with a view to recording it. Interviews and workshops are perhaps the best known. The police academy, for example,
has developed a special toolbox20 that ensures such workshops are
properly structured and given in phases. Putting structured questions to
knowledge-carriers or experts makes it possible to convert some of their
knowledge to paper (pull). They can actually do this themselves, whether
or not aided by motivation-supporting methods such as reward systems
(push) or by mental guidance technology to structure their thinking.
It can be useful to gather experts from the same field together and get
them to talk to one another about, for instance, what they look for when
identifying a criminal situation or when they see one coming.
Obtaining this knowledge via experience is often time-consuming and
can be accelerated by sharing knowledge. The well-known buddy system
was in fact perfectly tailored for the police. It was a way of transferring
knowledge from old to young and was a permanent part of the education of young aspirants. Adopting a certain manner of deportment, for
example, implicitly transfers knowledge without any actual discussion
or exchanging information in any other way. With the buddy system,
exchanging knowledge on how to act in certain situations was perhaps
just as important as exchanging knowledge about being able to recognise
criminal aspects in ones surroundings. In this context, Aristoteles drew
a distinction between a professional and a master. Professionals do their
work, he said, without knowing exactly what they are doing and they
often work routinely. Masters, on the other hand, know exactly what they
are doing and are capable of passing on this professional knowledge.
20 https://www.policeacademie.nl/onderwijs/overdescholen/spl/overdespl/Pages/Book-ofCrime-een-methode-voor-problemgericht-werken--.aspx
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21 https://policeknowledgenet.policeacademie.nl
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1998). On the other hand, computer systems can play a supporting role
not only in extracting, and recording knowledge, but also in sharing it
(Alavi & Leidner, 2001). Whether such systems take off depends on the
motivation of individuals and the culture within a company. It is also
the case that people accumulate knowledge in different ways, so that the
choice is often made to provide knowledge via different carriers.
Applying or making use of knowledge leads to what we might call intelligent behaviour. If we have knowledge about a situation, e.g., because a
preparatory survey has already been carried out, then we will want to use
this knowledge when taking action, such as entering premises, perhaps
in order to enter as surreptitiously as possible, and possibly taking extra
safety measures relating to risks as yet unknown. For instance, a resident
who may be armed and dangerous. It is not without reason that special
units are sent to deal with special situations.
As I already said, not all knowledge will and can be used for every situation. Either because the knowledge is not available, or due to the
consideration of inducing different behaviour, possibly because different
objectives may apply in a similar situation. In other words, having knowledge does not automatically mean it will be used. Reading a manual on
how to set up a service, for example, does not mean a person actually
understands the manual and is skilled in the activities. Let alone that a
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person will always use the knowledge in the right context and will go by
the book as it were. Considerations may apply that require a person to
ignore the manual. Just as some colleagues, despite having trained in
situations, nevertheless deport themselves differently.
Accumulating knowledge by remembering its significance does not
mean that a person will or can make use of that knowledge. Some things
require a lot of practice and you have to do them repeatedly before becoming competent. Repeated practice in applying knowledge leads to
skills and processing actions becomes automatic. Walking and cycling
are examples of this. Other things you may never learn, such as speaking
another language fluently, despite the required knowledge being available. Regular practice makes processes automatic, so that it becomes
easier to convert knowledge into the right action.
Consider, for example, the knowledge deployed by a detective during
an effective interrogation of a witness or suspect. Rapid switches take
place between what is known in communication science as involvement
and content. Understandably, this is referred to as interrogation skills. A
skill is not quite the same as simply having knowledge. Without practice,
people are often unsuccessful at making use of knowledge about interrogation methods, such as the funnel model, the duck decoy and how
to build up tension.
It is difficult to predict what will happen during an interrogation. Without
introducing structure, it could go in one of many different directions.
Furthermore, a suspect or witness may decide to cease cooperating and
make no further disclosures. It is only by active participation that these
skills can be developed. What a skill actually amounts to is being able to
apply knowledge in practice: not only knowing when you need to act, but
doing it in such a way that few errors are made.
In this sense, being good at predicting criminal behaviour can be described as a skill that needs to be practised until it is mastered. The fourstroke system is sometimes used to describe the process of obtaining
skills: from unconscious incompetence, via conscious incompetence
and conscious competence to unconscious competence. The knowledge
is actively used at the moment that a person is aware of his or her own
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22 http://staffhome.ecm.uwa.edu.au/~00043886/humour/invalid.proofs.html
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These models that have been developed, or intelligent systems, can also
become a part of a much larger entity. These are also referred to as multiagent systems (Wooldridge, 2002). For example, these systems can
make a prediction independently, based on their observations. A total
system can subsequently make a statement or carry out an action, based
on a combination of individual predictions. You could compare this to a
group of people cooperating on something. In addition to a group comprised of similar units (e.g., an ME platoon), it could be comprised of a
combination of different units and resources. For example, a search in
which a helicopter, a number of vehicles and a number of police officers
cooperate on arresting a suspect. Multi-agent systems are often deployed
if no agreement exists for finding a solution and if realising an objective
is a matter of trial and error. Feedback can help these systems to selfadjust, the objective being to improve their performance.
Useful predictions
for the police
5.
Some years after joining the police, I came across the air fleet. The
air fleet of the former National Police Services Agency (KLPD) had
purchased type 135 Eurocopters from the Airbus company on the advice
of a report from an external agency. A calculation was made based on
using half the helicopters action radius to determine the distance a single helicopter flight could span. This would enable the helicopter to reach
every place within a circle around its starting position and subsequently
return to its start location without having to refuel. With a little creativity
in placing these circles on the map, just five circles were needed to cover
the whole of the Netherlands. One extra helicopter would also be needed
to replace a helicopter in need of a check-up or maintenance work. All in
all, based on a proportionate distribution, six police helicopters would be
sufficient for the whole of the Netherlands. I still remember having my
doubts about that proportionate distribution. Moreover, the feeling that
there must be a better way grew even stronger when it emerged that the
helicopters were not deployed as proposed in the report but, for purposes
of economy, were all stationed at the same location.
Fortunately, a lot has changed since then. In cooperation with the University of Twente, the police have worked hard on optimising how the
air fleet is deployed. In addition to optimising the home base locations
(Buiteveld, 2010, Van Urk et al., 2013), the routes and planning are now
determined based on maximum expected returns (Vromans, 2014).
Crime incident patterns are used as input, as also are possible take-off
and landing sites and the number of annual flight hours available. The
latter aspect of optimisation alone resulted in a 20 to 50% improvement,
with helicopters arriving on time more frequently in order to support
ground-based officers during home burglaries and street robbery.
Retrospectively, I realised why my gut feeling had played up when I discovered that all the helicopters operated from the same home base. My
motivation in respect of this resource was particularly based on making
maximum use of it, unaware as I was of any financial considerations.
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the number of hours spent on the street. This may be twice as many,
but possibly even four times as many. So-called linear relationships exist
whereby the increase in the target variable is directly proportional to the
predictive variable, and quadratic relationships also exist, whereby the
increase in the target variable outstrips that of the predictive variable.
For example, if the population increases, you can also expect crime to
increase. For a number of types of crime this is indeed the case (Nolan
III, 2001). Over the years, numerous studies have been carried out that
have discovered the predictors of crime. This has resulted in useful and
surprising insights that facilitate anticipation. For example, repairing
broken windows reduced crime (Kelling & Coles, 1998), but even the vegetation in an inner city can have an effect (Kuo & Sullivan, 2001). Such
research into dependencies is typically the domain of criminologists and
social-psychological scientists. Long-term, intensive research is often
required in order to establish such relationships. The main question in
this type of cases is what increases or decreases along with an increase or
decrease in crime. Knowing this enables us to combat crime better and
increase the focus of interventions. If it turns out that robberies and suicides have a stronger relationship with poverty and inequality of income
than with rape and theft (Hsieh & Pugh, 1993), this knowledge can be
put to immediate use as input for policy.
It is often the case that not one input variable but a combination of a
number of input variables can be used to increase the accuracy of predicting a target variable even further (Perry et al., 2013). It also turns out
that some types of crime often recur in locations where they were committed previously. As such, the occurrence of an event has itself become
a predictor for the occurrence of a subsequent event (Townsley et al.,
2003).
Classification is a form of prediction in which not one but several target
variables are distinguished, such as several types of crime or several
potential suspects. You want to make a statement based on a number of
identified characteristics of these persons or objects, or indeed anything,
by placing them in a certain category or class. In mathematical terms,
you could say that you are trying to relate the input variables to one or
more known target variables. Once again, the challenge is to seek out
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Predicting crime
If the police were extremely accurate in predicting crime, our work could
look completely different. If we can predict crime for the future, then
it can be seen in the present and re-discovered in the past. Predicting
crime helps you to understand how it works, what generates it and how
you can observe it. Several levels can be distinguished on which crime
can be predicted: an operational level, a tactical level and a strategic level.
On an operational level or case level, predictions are about who is about
to strike, when and where, how and with what motive, etc. One level
higher, the supra-case or tactical level, is about predicting where most
crimes will be committed, which criminal networks will develop in the
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future and how the modi operandi alter per type of crime. At an even
higher level, the strategic level, insight can be gained into, for example,
the spread of types of crime relative to one another, in a quantitative
and a geographical sense. Police performance could benefit enormously
from this knowledge. Crime can be combated by effective and efficient
anticipation of an expected situation.
Much is known about the characteristics and the causes of different types
of crime. The same applies to the degree to which they occur. Throughout the world criminologists are carrying out research in order to get
a better understanding of crime. Such knowledge has been recorded in
books and scientific literature, but it can also be found in the minds of
police officers and detectives. Knowledge can also be found in police systems that store information on cases and incidents, and countless other
sources are also available. These vary from information from insurers,
travel organisations and the Tax and Customs Administration to internet
data and social media feeds. All these sources, whether they come from
humans or databases, can be used to make predictive models. Integrating these models into systems provides the police with triggers in the
form of increased chances, hits or matches so they can come up with an
appropriate response.
The systems mentioned, such as CAS and PREDPOL, are all operational
and show that predicting crime is not science fiction. At the same time,
both examples clearly show on a tactical level that not all crime is equally
amenable to prediction and that for the moment it is an illusion to suppose that crime can be predicted with 100% certainty. It is also becoming
clear that explicit evaluation methods need to be developed so that systems can be compared with one another. After all, what does it mean
exactly that a model is better at predicting than a police analyst? What
does an 8% hit-chance say about the usefulness of the system? Where
are the upper and lower limits and how many of the boxes are risk boxes?
If we had gambled on a prediction, what chance of success would this
have had? These are relevant questions that must be answered before
we can say anything useful about the added value. Though here too the
emphatic comment should be made that the success of such a system
depends not only on its usefulness or performance, because as I men-
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banks for making comparisons. A lot of detective work and craft is needed, as well as any necessary pre-processing, in order to make sure the
desired indicators, equipped with a value, are available in the same file.
Predictions can also be made in respect of individuals. For instance,
whether recidivism can be expected of a person (Wartna et al., 2013) and
whether there is a chance that someone will commit another murder
after being released. It seems that when historic data on people are used
(e.g., age at first contact with the police or whether he or she has a history
involving weapons, as well as current age, what a person earns), these
factors are all of added value in increasing the correctness of a prediction
(Berk et al., 2009).
Such predictions on people can be used to determine whether someone
will naturally be driven to become a hardened criminal, whether a person will become radicalised or whether a person is capable of carrying
out an attack or committing murder. A growth factor of the risk can be
determined over time by measuring certain forms of behaviour, e.g., by
means of analysing the text of statements made on internet fora or via
social media. Examining word-clouds for contributions to discussions
on fora over time may reveal that certain words are getting bigger while
others are getting smaller. Adjustable threshold values for specific statements help to generate automatic triggers that reveal where thresholds
have been exceeded.
Depending on the chance of an event occurring, chances can be grouped
and allocated to certain categories determined in advance. An example
of this is the traffic light model that attaches labels depending on the
risk detected. Red often means a high risk and green a low risk. The
orange label is often in-between, so a risk is involved but it is not serious enough to warrant being labelled red. The criminal development of
certain persons over time within a given context can help to categorise
important players in a criminal network and possibly even to classify
them as red, orange or green. For instance, an examination of crucial
contacts in relation to the ability of a network to function or by using
centrality measures from graph theory (Hamers, 2011) makes it possible
to categorise the members of an organisation relative to one another
according to risk (to society) or according to key positions. The same
can be done on a tactical level by comparing entire networks with one
another (Rienks & de Wit, 2012).
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Predicting events on locations is a different category of predictions. Simply counting historical data on burglaries or stabbings may already have
predictive value for a location in relation to the future. Heat maps or hotspot maps provide a picture of the past that is often useful for the future
too. This is what PredPol actually does. By carrying out extrapolation that
is non-linear, e.g., by taking adjacent fields into account, a system can
issue a predictive value for the future.
Geographic profiling is a field with a strong focus on geo-spatial data and
events. Geographic profiling uses crimes belonging to a single series to
attempt to determine, e.g., where a suspect lives (Rossmo, 1999). Calculating the distances between different crime locations makes it possible
to predict subsequent locations and events.
The same mechanism can also be used for the times of events. For
example, experience based on data from the past teaches us that there
is often a wave of burglaries in the autumn. Possibly because days are
shorter than nights and criminals feel safer in the dark. In the case of internet swindle, for example, it is at the weekend that most fake websites
go on-line with complete copies of existing websites for conning customers by accepting payments for products that will never be delivered. It
depends on the type of crime whether it is committed with any degree of
regularity over time. A patterns regularity may involve a seasonal repeat,
but it could also be daily. Increased knowledge about this regularity helps
the police to be more alert about certain types of crimes being committed
at certain times.
Another form of geographical prediction is tracing an unknown location
based on leads or indicators. This could be the origin or source of some
wrongdoing, but also a location where certain stashes of money or weapons are being stored. Twitter analyses are really good at showing how
certain opinions or statements develop over time and how these spread
geographically. Playing these back is fairly simple because the data of all
tweets can be requested. The ability to trace heroin or other drug samples back to a single source is different again. Parties can be traced back
to a single source, for instance, by examining the molecular composition
and the degree of cutting. This demands different reconstruction skills
which eventually result in a chance or a prediction about answering the
question of whether a certain party can be linked to a source.
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Being able to anticipate events as early as possible often goes hand-inhand with more uncertainty the further into the future an event is located. The same applies to planned activities. After all, there are still many
factors that can result in activities failing to take place. The closer two
vehicles approach one another, the greater the probability that a criminal
meeting is about to take place. This also applies to planned activities as
the distance over time diminishes. Although there is always a chance
that planned activities will not take place, it is handy for the police to
have a good overview of activities that are imminent and which may involve an increased risk varying from an attack to pick-pocketing or other
disturbances of public order. The most accurate possible estimation of
the risk can be done by men or machines, whether or not in collaboration. Here too, by learning from previous experience, we can find ways
of perfecting this science in the future.
In most cases, predictions about events is far from a matter of course,
and it is the small steps in parts of such processes that continually improve or simplify the realisation of predictions. An example of this is
being able to automatically filter data that could provide relevant input
for a prediction. In some cases simply too many data are available to be
able to distil anything that is even remotely useful. Take, for example,
data from telephone-tapped conversations. These are audio-recordings
of discussions, thousands of which are stored for some investigations.
Sometimes in foreign languages or dialects, which makes automatic
translation or conversion from speech to text quite challenging. The information retrieval discipline within informatics deals with being able to
distinguish relevant information in relation to the enormous quantities
of files or documents available.
Such systems, which use techniques based on mathematical formulas,
can support people in filtering and carrying out pre-selection. This enables us to classify automatically analysed telephone-tapped conversations
according to presumed relevance, and indicators can be dissected from
data that embody a more predictive element than other indicators in respect of the phenomenon being sought. These pre-selection techniques
can also be used on reports received by the police with a view to sifting
out more relevant reports and giving them a higher priority for further
handling. It is important that an abundance of data are available and that
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the question asked of the data can be properly defined about what output
is relevant. Other examples of techniques in this field make it possible to
automatically draw up summaries of text or audio-recordings, thus speeding up searches for people. For instance, pictures of child pornography
can automatically be compared with a database in order to determine
whether or not material is new.
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It differs from what we regard as normal and could form a reason for
closer inspection. Examples of typical patterns are commuting traffic
and biorhythm, but also, e.g., images of traffic jams or contact moments
with government authorities, to name but a few. Exploring could reveal
patterns and result in knowledge that can be used to predict, e.g., the
presence or absence of people from certain places. People generally go to
work in the morning and return home in the evening. The police can use
this type of patterns for a focussed intervention. It makes little sense for
a community policeman to keep calling on people who are not at home.
Even the knowledge, for example, that a passport and a driving licence
have to be renewed once every 10 years can make the police more effective. For instance, investigations into missing persons could use such
information in consultation with the municipality to take advantage
of these moments in order to trace these persons.
Changes in the outside world are forcing the police to adjust and keep
up with modern society (Rienks & Tuin, 2011). For example, the arrival
of the internet made new forms of crime possible, to which the police
had to find an answer. In this respect, you can only deal with something
if you know how it works. This and other developments have resulted in
a growing arsenal of weapons available to the police over the course of
time. New resources create new opportunities not only for criminals but
also for the police. The arrival of the data revolution and being able to
store and retrieve transactions and events has given us the opportunity
of making a growing number of predictions.
Knowledge can be exchanged collectively by using experience from the
past and because results achieved are more accessible. The design of
evaluations can also be improved because data are available more often.
This makes it possible for an organisation to adjust more rapidly. Adaptive systems are capable of learning from their own activities and try to
develop in the direction of improved performance, in some cases even
with a view to an improved chance of survival. Just think of the business
community where, in the end, large companies that failed to adjust to a
changing market simply had no future.
In their interaction with the outside world, the police continually have to
weigh up the deployment of resources proportionately and alternatively,
in the face of a predicted situation. In this sense, using an ME platoon
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to deal with a domestic violence situation would not be fitting. Furthermore, the police have an interest in the smallest possible deployment
of people and resources to achieve the greatest possible change in the
outside world. Often it is scarcity that forces us to make choices and optimise. Should we send an officer on a bike or a pair of officers to a home
trespassing situation? Which villain should we remove first from the
criminal network? Or should we deal with the other network first? These
are typical questions that justify a clear assessment that takes experience
from the past into account in order to predict expected performance in
the future in relation to the resource deployed.
If we think back to how the helicopters were positioned and their envisaged effectiveness, then what determines their deployment is the pattern of incidents of crimes for which the helicopter may have an added
value in combating these crimes. This maximises the effectiveness of a
resource in relation to the intended effect. Whether it is about optimisation in the time spent on investigations, the places for special squads,
determining locations for starting officers shifts, determining the package of interventions during combat activities, or trying to position law
maintenance units cleverly. This is where a difference can be made both
for people and for resources. An essential matter for increasing the effectiveness and efficiency of the police.
An ethical consideration
6.
An ethical consideration
Predictive policing is all about pro-active police action and the assumption, based on leads and indicators, that a situation is taking place
or will take place somewhere. Different ideas about this exist within
society. Just the word police is often enough to start a discussion. Some
people would rather have no police at all, while others are more than
satisfied with them. Are people right to complain of feeling they are
constantly being watched by cameras and other sensors that have been
installed to increase our sense of safety? Does safety always come at the
cost of privacy? Some people only want more bobbies on the streets,
while others mainly want the police to be effective so they remain affordable.
Predictive policing brings many opportunities for making the police
more effective. But it also introduces risks. For example, the risk that the
police become too dependent on technology, or the risk that decisions
are made inside a black box, the working mechanism of which is understood by no-one any more. Is this what we want? Some people are afraid
of artificial intelligence and think that their lives will soon be regulated
by robots. Another issue is how should we deal with false positives?
Should we accept them as an inherent risk of more effective policing?
Or should we only intervene if we are 100% certain and run the risk of
missing out on other potential candidates? This chapter discusses such
ethical aspects that the introduction of predictive policing involves. Wellconsidered decision-making, policy and legislation are unavoidable if we
are to realise the full potential of these opportunities for society.
In our considerations, it is important to pay attention to these ethical and
other relevant aspects that could influence the successful introduction of
predictive policing. Not only because of its enormous impact on society,
but also because misunderstandings exist about, e.g., how certain technologies work. I remember a meeting in which a piece of technology was
declared worthless because of the fact that it was not used. The person
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who said this simply did not realise that more is required than the mere
purchase of technology in order to deploy it successfully. The danger
is that something that is unknown is often also unloved. On the other
hand, there is the danger of making far-reaching statements about techniques that one knows little about. For instance, in an inaugural lecture
a professor cited rather offhandedly research which claimed in general
that risk models have about a 50% chance of erroneous results (Moerings, 2003). In the meantime, it is claimed that risk models have improved to an extent. Anyone in the field of machine learning or artificial
intelligence would have been rather surprised by this. Making a general
supposition about a classification or risk assessment algorithm for the
entire criminal domain can be described as, to put it mildly, remarkable.
Some predictions are extremely simple, while others are more complex.
A 100% score is often impossible, but naturally the goal is to get the
scores as high as possible. The chance of a correct prediction is correlated with the power of the measured input variables, how the algorithm
was determined and whether it has undergone sufficient training and
testing. Only then can a statement be made about performance, whether
the number of real positives is proportionate to false positives.
Different instruments can achieve completely different scores per type
of crime. The term added value was also used earlier in this book. The
choices an instrument makes must eventually supply sufficient added
value in order to be used by the police. There may be good reason for accepting a certain percentage of false positives (Stuart et al., 1993). Recall
the lady with her poodle in Chapter 3 whose driving pattern resembled
that of a drugs courier on the motorway; police cars used considerable
intervention force to force her to come to a halt by hemming her in and
forcing her to reduce her driving speed, while it eventually turned out
that she had done nothing wrong. You may feel that this is going too far
and that the police should only have intervened after a visual inspection
confirmed the machine selection or that the police should only actually intervene after a crime has been committed. Was this a situation in
which respect for private life was shown as laid down in article 10 of the
Constitution of the Netherlands?
6.
An ethical consideration
125
Incidentally, a taxi was also stopped during the same action in which
the lady with her poodle was mistaken for a drugs courier. Most officers
would not have let this happen. It turned out that this taxi contained
almost 2 kilos of hard drugs, something that the average officer would
never have expected. The profile that had been created successfully designated the taxi as a possible candidate. You could say that this opened
the eyes of these colleagues and new knowledge was formed on the spot
by amending existing ideas. But was this an incident or was it a pattern
and can you learn anything from a situation that is based on an incident
or a single event? Where is the cut-off point at which you are allowed to
generalise?
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6.
An ethical consideration
127
for how much longer? What can we expect of predictive policing in this
context?
24 http://phys.org/news/2014-12-hawking-ai-human.html#inlRlv
25 http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/ibm100/us/en/icons/deepblue/
26 http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/
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6.
An ethical consideration
129
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Discrimination
6.
An ethical consideration
131
(2009) rightly pointed out the risk of what he calls the contrary effect:
getting entire population groups against you.
Distinguishing characteristics that are based on knowledge or data
should be tested objectively by making use of, e.g., random sampling. A
risk inherent in determining characteristics from knowledge is that generalisations are made based on stigmatising and stereotyping, whereby
some incidents are quickly converted into patterns that do not agree with
reality. In the same way that one might arrive at a certain bias due to
one or two bad experiences. For example, during a trip to South Africa, I
once had a negative experience in Durban, in which I almost got robbed.
Ever since I dislike Durban, probably totally unrealistically, but that one
incident suddenly made the entire city unattractive to me.
Police data do not necessarily provide an objective reflection of society
or of crime. For example, because the police focus more on high-impact
crime instead of on fraud or other forms of white-collar crime, it is only
logical that more data are available in police systems on certain forms of
crime. This makes comparing distinguishing characteristics for specific
forms of crime less simple and corrections have to be carried out for
such biased sampling.
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6.
An ethical consideration
133
lot of discussion can go into deploying the available capacity, without any
obligation to take matters any further.
Another relevant question in this respect is how powerful do we actually
want the police to be? Do we really want to transform the strong arm
of the law into some sort of omniscient powerhouse? Does our society
want the police to act as a solid entity, to intervene collectively and to be
organised in such a way that internal knowledge is explicitly available
everywhere within the organisation? Wouldnt a more fragmented situation be more sensible, in view of the risk that all this knowledge could
suddenly fall into the wrong hands? Just imagine criminals being able to
gain access to all police knowledge and profiles that have been developed
in the battle against crime. This would provide them with a powerful
instrument that can use all the collective knowledge against our own
organisation. Criminals would in any case no longer target places where
police are deployed based on predictive models. Consider the population register, for example. During the second world war this was put to
gruesome use by the German occupier to achieve an entirely different
objective than that for which the information was collected. It should
come as no surprise that two resistance fighters, notably disguised as
police officers33, set fire to Amsterdams population register, then still a
physical register.
Is there a risk in this era of digitisation that we are creating a sort of
big brother, capable of recognising and comprehending everything at an
early stage? Is this comparable with the doom scenario of a totalitarian
regime for the western world (Orwell, 1949)? Crime, on the other hand,
has also become a global issue nowadays, whereby knowledge is shared
and exchanged throughout the world via the internet. People from near
and far can enter into coalitions with the objective of undermining society. The question to ask is what would be an appropriate answer?
These are just a few questions that can result in discussions, and to
which no simple answer can be given. Time will tell how we can manage
to find an answer to these and other aspects that are associated with
the arrival of predictive policing. Perhaps needless to say, but everyone
33 https://stadsarchief.amsterdam.nl/presentaties/amsterdamse_schatten/oproer/aanslag_bevolkingsregister/
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7.
Opportunities to make a success of predictive policing in the Netherlands are increasing rapidly. The arrival of the National Police and having
centralised the provision of information in the field of data is making
it possible to bundle capacities. A new era is heralded by the arrival of
big-data processing applications and by making knowledge within the
organisation collective. An era in which predictive policing will break
through and in which an even bigger role will be given to the power of
equipping operations with information. It has been transformed from a
necessary evil, via process optimisation, into a core asset of the police. An
asset that has immediate impact on their performance. This is the start
of a new development. A development that requires an owner within the
police force. Investments in learning will be necessary to improve our
control of technology that is capable of transforming data to knowledge
and of obtaining it from the minds of people. This knowledge then has
to be converted into profiles so that people or machines can perform predictive activities. These are all necessary steps to allow predictive policing
to become a reality.
In the previous chapters I showed how obtaining knowledge about what
generates crime is essential if one wants to make a prediction. Indicators
have to be distilled from data or minds and then be made measurable in
a system that uses an algorithm to make a choice about the probability
that the event (that is being predicted) will or will not occur. Training and
adjusting algorithms can improve them so that they make more precise
observations with a higher degree of accuracy. Based on an estimate,
which incidentally can also be done manually, decisions can be made
and a set of measures can be proposed for intervention. These measures
can also be optimised with the help of predictive techniques. Naturally,
the goal being to achieve the most effective and efficient result possible
in the outside world, with or without partners.
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Perhaps the right credo for us is where theres a will, theres a way. Nevertheless, implementation will not happen without a few setbacks. Quite
a few myths already exist about predictive policing (Perry et al., 2010).
For instance, that computers know the entire future and can do everything for you. And that predictive models are really expensive and good
predictions can reduce crime enormously. These are all misconceptions
that are comparable with blaming technology if people do not use it or
use it incorrectly during an intervention. In order to avoid hindering its
successful introduction, it is important to discredit such myths as soon
as possible and to ensure that the real story gets told.
The challenge is in realising an effective introduction. The introduction of information-led policing, for example, showed that a good story
and a long-term approach are needed in order to allow this potentially
promising domain to flourish. Every change deserves attention and its
introduction should be properly supervised. By way of pre-sorting, the
following tips serve as a means of anchoring predictive policing more
solidly within the police domain. What is needed in order to really get
started and what other challenges will the police face on the road to predictive policing?
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Then we need people who are able to make models based on the accumulated knowledge and patterns. This requires a translation from paper
to technology in order to be able to use these models. These could be risk
assessment models, profiles for automatic observations, or models that
propose a set of interventions based on a given situation. Components
within the organisation are also needed that, apart from developing the
predictive models, will also be involved in their implementation, maintenance and control. It would be undesirable to allow the developers of
models to also become their controllers. Designing good processes for
all this is often no simple matter.
The implementation of every new model, such as when a system output
becomes operational, is a reform process. A project-based approach is
sometimes required just for informing everyone about its added value.
This has to be done by people who are skilled in change management
and marketing. Only then will introductions succeed correctly and at the
right pace.
Technicians will also be needed who can make the hardware and the
platform operational, so that the data are gathered and for installing
flexible software. Software capable of processing data and carrying out
business intelligence. As this often involves specialised hardware and
software, it is extremely important to develop the relevant knowledge
in-house and minimise dependency on third parties.
Something will also have to be done with the output of the models and
systems, i.e., with the prediction itself. Translating this part of the output
into action could take place, in the event that immediate follow-up is
necessary, in a part of the organisation that is comparable with the operations room, the real-time intelligence centre or the reporting centre.
Here too, people will have to be trained and educated. If follow-up can be
delayed and there is still sufficient time to respond, then a preparation
unit could, for example, make good use of the predictions produced by
the models and systems. If this is not the case, then experts will have to
provide instructions that can immediately interpret the warnings issued
by systems and convert these into action. This depends on the type of
decision-making for which the prediction was made. If tactical and strategic decision-making is involved, no immediate follow-up is generally
necessary.
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Business processes in relation to predictive policing will have to be designed, bearing in mind the initial introduction phase of a predictive
system as well as when it is being used. During the development phase,
model development will probably be the most complex process. This is
when room particularly has to be made available for experimentation
and creativity. Extracting knowledge from minds and data is not an activity that can be predicted in advance. Preferably these activities will take
place in a central and independent part of the organisation. Standardising the development process will focus particularly on phasing of the
process. Estimating introduction times will vary per type of system being
developed and in some cases it may prove to be too complex to ever reach
the finishing line of production status.
When implementing or introducing a system that has been developed,
it is a good idea to organise proper supervision in respect of its progress
and to involve in the transition those parts of the organisation that are affected by the change. Sometimes pressure is exerted from outside, before
a person has even realised whether a new instrument has added value
for his or her own business. In other cases people simply contain their
enormous expectations while impatiently awaiting the new resource. In
both cases, it is important to manage these expectations and test and
practice with the system in order to achieve maximum performance.
If predictive models are involved that focus on predictions to assist immediate intervention, then this involves a form of alarm, after which
appropriate intervention is necessary. In cases of indirect follow-up, it
may also be the case that, based on a prediction, a process stops or splits
into different versions of follow-up. In cases of indirect intervention,
during the implementation phase it is important to be clear about which
existing company processes could influence the systems output so that
these can be suitably adjusted. In order to keep the change for the organisation to a minimum, in most cases it will be necessary to organise the
best possible embedding within what currently exists.
Technology that is necessary to be able to make predictions will play a
role throughout, from automated observation to automated intervention.
A distinction can be made here between hardware and software. Both
are needed to enable a system to communicate with people. To convert
physical input to digi-language, to process it and store it (or not as the
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case may be). This is so that any output can subsequently be presented in
the physical world. Technology is also needed to combine data, information and knowledge, whether or not remotely, and to ensure continued
synchronicity within the organisation.
Predictive policing demands specific hardware and software, the technology of which cannot be compared with applications from office automation, particularly during the construction phase of predictive models.
Big-data applications, for example, on which pattern recognition can take
place, are typified by the enormous diversity of data, large volumes and
the high speed with which these data have to be processed. For the development of predictive policing applications, a lab environment is needed
to be able to test and experiment with modern software and hardware, to
see whether new ideas and possibilities can be discovered and translated
into operational solutions in operational technology.
This operational technology will be an enormous network with sensors
and actuators that are part of the total intervention armamentarium of
the police, interpreted jointly by people and technology.
Legal aspects and legislation determine the frameworks within which
the police have to operate. Much is still to be expected in respect of predictive policing. For the moment legislation focuses mainly on classical
forms of police action. Few frameworks are as yet in place for proactive
and predictive activities. It is clear that not in all cases can all resources
simply be deployed. For instance, the automatic, purposeless processing
of police information is not permitted. Purpose limitation, proportionality and subsidiarity will continue to play a role. But what shape will the
frameworks take within which research can and will be possible (and
allowable) into patterns in data that can lead to the automatic recognition of a suspect? And when may patterns and profiles obtained from
human knowledge or from data be translated into technology that can
be deployed for a police operation? And though people may make errors,
so can machines. Shaping the frameworks for this interaction will be a
challenge for legislation in the near future. The mechanism that monitors these frameworks must fulfil an authoritative and supporting role as
early as possible while this field of work is being developed.
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35 http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/alarmnummer-112/misbruik-van-112
7.
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These examples show that predictive policing is not a holy grail for a
safer society. Predictive policing is a new instrument and a new form
of working that can support the police task. New dilemmas will arise
that will have to be examined within the context of that moment. Frameworks for this should be developed separately, frameworks for ensuring
meticulousness and legitimacy of use, whereby citizens are protected
and crime is reduced. In the short term predictive policing will definitely
give the police an advantage in respect of interaction with the outside
world, even if only because knowledge will become more explicit and
collective. Nevertheless, if a car drives through a red traffic light, there
will always be the chance that a pedestrian who was crossing the road
gets knocked down. Only the technology in the car itself could possibly
do something to alter this. People will continue to take risks and the
police will never be able to prevent them all.
Although there is much to be done, I dare to predict that the potential is
enormous and the possibilities will be infinite. During the past decade,
predictive policing has made its cautious entrance; the time has come to
do the real work on it!
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Epilogue
Sometimes you find the time has come and you want to share your
thoughts with others about certain developments and trends. Sometimes
you want to set pen to paper and share your thoughts and give them
a wider dissemination. This book is the result of such an impulse. An
impulse that became a challenge. The combination of writing, having a
fantastic family with three children, as well as a regular job as chief of a
police department during a reorganisation was not really ideal.
Fortunately it was winter and the topic of this book was such that I could
not allow myself to wait any longer. I really do believe that predictive
policing will become the new mantra of the police during the next few
years. During the process of writing this book, on 4 March 2015 predictive policing as an innovative domain was officially added to the business
intelligence road map of the National Police. The game is on!
It is no longer merely information, but increasingly it is also knowledge,
that will become a strategic asset of the police. This, in combination with
increasingly intelligent technology, is what will make the difference.
I would like to say a very big thank you to everyone who participated
in discussions and cooperated in realising this book. I want to thank
Christene Beddow for the English translation and, in random order: Tim
Postema, Jaap Wiersma, Dick Willems, Tobias de Wit, Marleen Ribbens,
Reinier Ruissen, Remco van der Hoorn, Marille den Hengst, Jeroen van
der Kammen, Hans J.G. de Lange, John Tamerus, Hugo Elings, Mieke
Schuijers, Ruud Staijen, William Swaters, Karst Grit and Jan ter Mors.
Above all, I want to thank my beloved girlfriend, Yvonne Moolenaar, for
the many evenings she had to miss me because I felt compelled to sit
behind the computer working on the book until late in the night. I cannot thank you enough for your help and efforts.
Heres looking forward to a sensible and controlled introduction of the
wonderful resource that goes by the name of predictive policing!
Rutger Rienks
March, 2015
Index
analytics, 57
artificial intelligence, 50, 56
bias, 79
biased sampling, 79
big data, 45
business intelligence, 47
Classification, 61
Clustering, 63
codification, 52
cross-validation, 50
data, 40
Data, 40
data preparation, 47
data science, 57
dependent variable, 49
independent variable, 49
indicators, 49
information retrieval, 71
Information-pull, 43
information-push, 43
Intelligence-Led Policing, 9
knowledge management, 51
knowledge rules, 26
machine learning, 56
model induction, 50
model-building, 50
multi-agent systems, 57
prediction, 48
predictors, 49
pre-processing, 47
Proportionate distribution, 59
Regression, 60
Reinforcement-learning, 51
Scripting, 34
signals, 30
stereotyping, 79
storytelling, 43
systematic approach, 35
tacit knowledge, 41
tagging engine, 47
target variable, 49
temporal characteristics, 60
truth-finding, 25
what works, 37
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Predictive Policing
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