1 Site

X
Y
Z

area (Sq Ft)

15000
20000
10000

X
16
14
14
16
13
8
7
6
4
4
2
2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Aij = Sj / Tij

3
Pij = Aij / Aij

6
EX
%EX

PX1
PX2
PX3
PX4
PX5
PX6
PX7
PX8
PX9
PX10
PX11
PX12

MARKET SHARE CALCULATION

400104.451 EY
516399.10009 EZ
24% %EY
31% %EZ

Y
12
10
10
12
9
5
4
3
2
4
2
5

Probability
0.020742
0.008136
0.008136
0.020742
0.003982
0.001433
8.91E-005
0.020522
0.021516
0.427321
0.428532
0.986475

740321.4
45%

Z
7 AX1
5 AX2
5 AX3
7 AX4
4 AX5
2 AX6
1 AX7
4 AX8
3 AX9
10 AX10
10 AX11
13 AX12

Attractiveness to sites
0.014305 AY1
0.080376 AZ1
0.02789 AY2
0.2 AZ2
0.02789 AY3
0.2 AZ3
0.014305 AY4
0.080376 AZ4
0.040399 AY5
0.338702 AZ5
0.457764 AY6
6.4 AZ6
0.892485 AY7
19.53125 AZ7
1.929012 AY8
82.30453 AZ8
14.64844 AY9
625 AZ9
14.64844 AY10
19.53125 AZ10
468.75 AY11
625 AZ11
468.75 AY12
6.4 AZ12

Probability Chart
PY1
0.116542 PZ1
PY2
0.058345 PZ2
PY3
0.058345 PZ3
PY4
0.116542 PZ4
PY5
0.033387 PZ5
PY6
0.02004 PZ6
PY7
0.001949 PZ7
PY8
0.875588 PZ8
PY9
0.918037 PZ9
PY10
0.569762 PZ10
PY11
0.571376 PZ11
PY12
0.013469 PZ12

5
EX1
EX2
EX3
EX4
EX5
EX6

0.862716
0.933519
0.933519
0.862716
0.962631
0.978526
0.997962
0.103891
0.060447
0.002917
9.14E-005
5.67E-005

Total A respective b
0.59499 Ai1
3.2 Ai2
3.2 Ai3
0.59499 Ai4
9.765625 Ai5
312.5 Ai6
10000 Ai7
9.765625 Ai8
41.15226 Ai9
0.1 Ai10
0.1 Ai11
0.026933 Ai12

4 Block No

No of Hous
1
730
2
1130
3
1035
4
635
5
160
6
105
7
125
8
470
9
305
10
1755
11
900
12
290

Estimated Total Expenditure for a product

2725.492 EY1
15313.6 EZ1
113360.9
1149.245 EY2
8241.221 EZ2
131859.5
2357.885 EY3
16908.36 EZ3
270533.8
4609.898 EY4
25901.43 EZ4
191738.7
47.78762 EY5
400.6437 EZ5
11551.57
7.525288 EY6
105.2112 EZ6
5137.264

TOTAL

EX7
EX8
EX9
EX10
EX11
EX12
EX

0.668 EY7
1109.192 EY8
590.6275 EY9
198736.4 EY10
82920.99 EY11
105848.7 EY12
400104 EY

14.61858 EZ7
47325.52 EZ8
25200.11 EZ9
264981.9 EZ10
110561.3 EZ11
1445.188 EZ12
516399 EZ

7484.713
5615.284
1659.266
1356.707
17.68981
6.081737
740321

Total A respective block

0.6896708118
3.4278901648
3.4278901648
0.6896708118
10.1447261173
319.3577636719
10020.423735274
93.9991640947
680.8007008745
34.2796875
1093.85
475.1769329074

Annual Exp. In $ Customer Spending

180
131400
125
141250
280
289800
350
222250
75
12000
50
5250
60
7500
115
54050
90
27450
265
465075
215
193500
370
107300
1656825 Total

Ejk = PijCiBik

1 Site
X
Y
Z

area (Sq Ft)

15000
20000
10000

X
16
14
14
16
13
8
7
6
4
4
2
2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Aij = Sj / Tij

3
Pij = Aij / Aij

6
EX
%EX

PX1
PX2
PX3
PX4
PX5
PX6
PX7
PX8
PX9
PX10
PX11
PX12

MARKET SHARE CALCULATION

537956.817 EY
755601.55707 EZ
32% %EY
46% %EZ

Y
12
10
10
12
9
5
4
3
2
4
2
5

Probability
0.281888
0.27077
0.27077
0.281888
0.262859
0.248764
0.220864
0.270116
0.273566
0.36298
0.380015
0.475113

363266.6
22%

Z
7 AX1
5 AX2
5 AX3
7 AX4
4 AX5
2 AX6
1 AX7
4 AX8
3 AX9
10 AX10
10 AX11
13 AX12

Attractiveness to sites
3750 AY1
5773.503 AZ1
4008.919 AY2
6324.555 AZ2
4008.919 AY3
6324.555 AZ3
3750 AY4
5773.503 AZ4
4160.251 AY5
6666.667 AZ5
5303.301 AY6
8944.272 AZ6
5669.467 AY7
10000 AZ7
6123.724 AY8
11547.01 AZ8
7500 AY9
14142.14 AZ9
7500 AY10
10000 AZ10
10606.6 AY11
14142.14 AZ11
10606.6 AY12
8944.272 AZ12

Probability Chart
PY1
0.433995 PZ1
PY2
0.427173 PZ2
PY3
0.427173 PZ3
PY4
0.433995 PZ4
PY5
0.421223 PZ5
PY6
0.419552 PZ6
PY7
0.389568 PZ7
PY8
0.509335 PZ8
PY9
0.515842 PZ9
PY10
0.483974 PZ10
PY11
0.506687 PZ11
PY12
0.400651 PZ12

5
EX1
EX2
EX3
EX4
EX5
EX6

0.284117
0.302057
0.302057
0.284117
0.315917
0.331685
0.389568
0.220549
0.210592
0.153046
0.113299
0.124236

Total A respective b
3779.645 Ai1
4472.136 Ai2
4472.136 Ai3
3779.645 Ai4
5000 Ai5
7071.068 Ai6
10000 Ai7
5000 Ai8
5773.503 Ai9
3162.278 Ai10
3162.278 Ai11
2773.501 Ai12

4 Block No

No of Hous
1
730
2
1130
3
1035
4
635
5
160
6
105
7
125
8
470
9
305
10
1755
11
900
12
290

Estimated Total Expenditure for a product

37040.11 EY1
57026.97 EZ1
37332.92
38246.3 EY2
60338.17 EZ2
42665.53
78469.22 EY3
123794.7 EZ3
87536.08
62649.65 EY4
96455.44 EZ4
63144.91
3154.311 EY5
5054.68 EZ5
3791.01
1306.009 EY6
2202.646 EZ6
1741.345

TOTAL

EX7
EX8
EX9
EX10
EX11
EX12
EX

1656.482 EY7
14599.76 EY8
7509.4 EY9
168813.1 EY10
73532.88 EY11
50979.63 EY12
537957 EY

2921.759 EZ7
27529.58 EZ8
14159.86 EZ9
225084.1 EZ10
98043.85 EZ11
42989.8 EZ12
755602 EZ

2921.759
11920.66
5780.739
71177.84
21923.27
13330.57
363267

Total A respective block

13303.147421989
14805.609904023
14805.609904023
13303.147421989
15826.918138356
21318.640580764
25669.467095138
22670.729740751
27415.638315627
20662.277660168
27911.015001698
22324.374608924

Annual Exp. In $ Customer Spending

180
131400
125
141250
280
289800
350
222250
75
12000
50
5250
60
7500
115
54050
90
27450
265
465075
215
193500
370
107300
1656825 Total

Ejk = PijCiBik

1 Site
X
Y
Z

area (Sq Ft)

15000
20000
10000

X
16
14
14
16
13
8
7
6
4
4
2
2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Aij = Sj / Tij

3
Pij = Aij / Aij

6
EX
%EX

PX1
PX2
PX3
PX4
PX5
PX6
PX7
PX8
PX9
PX10
PX11
PX12

MARKET SHARE CALCULATION

517999.383 EY
749836.61892 EZ
31% %EY
45% %EZ

Y
12
10
10
12
9
5
4
3
2
4
2
5

Probability
0.232472
0.211268
0.211268
0.232472
0.196364
0.172414
0.125
0.214286
0.219512
0.384615
0.405405
0.611285

388989
23%

Z
7 AX1
5 AX2
5 AX3
7 AX4
4 AX5
2 AX6
1 AX7
4 AX8
3 AX9
10 AX10
10 AX11
13 AX12

Attractiveness to sites
937.5 AY1
1666.667 AZ1
1071.429 AY2
2000 AZ2
1071.429 AY3
2000 AZ3
937.5 AY4
1666.667 AZ4
1153.846 AY5
2222.222 AZ5
1875 AY6
4000 AZ6
2142.857 AY7
5000 AZ7
2500 AY8
6666.667 AZ8
3750 AY9
10000 AZ9
3750 AY10
5000 AZ10
7500 AY11
10000 AZ11
7500 AY12
4000 AZ12

Probability Chart
PY1
0.413284 PZ1
PY2
0.394366 PZ2
PY3
0.394366 PZ3
PY4
0.413284 PZ4
PY5
0.378182 PZ5
PY6
0.367816 PZ6
PY7
0.291667 PZ7
PY8
0.571429 PZ8
PY9
0.585366 PZ9
PY10
0.512821 PZ10
PY11
0.540541 PZ11
PY12
0.326019 PZ12

5
EX1
EX2
EX3
EX4
EX5
EX6

0.354244
0.394366
0.394366
0.354244
0.425455
0.45977
0.583333
0.214286
0.195122
0.102564
0.054054
0.062696

1428.571 Ai1
2000 Ai2
2000 Ai3
1428.571 Ai4
2500 Ai5
5000 Ai6
10000 Ai7
2500 Ai8
3333.333 Ai9
1000 Ai10
1000 Ai11
769.2308 Ai12

4 Block No

No of Hous
1
730
2
1130
3
1035
4
635
5
160
6
105
7
125
8
470
9
305
10
1755
11
900
12
290

Estimated Total Expenditure for a product

30546.86 EY1
54305.54 EZ1
46547.6
29841.55 EY2
55704.23 EZ2
55704.23
61225.35 EY3
114287.3 EZ3
114287.3
51666.97 EY4
91852.4 EZ4
78730.63
2356.364 EY5
4538.182 EZ5
5105.455
905.1724 EY6
1931.034 EZ6
2413.793

TOTAL

EX7
EX8
EX9
EX10
EX11
EX12
EX

937.5 EY7
11582.14 EY8
6025.61 EY9
178875 EY10
78445.95 EY11
65590.91 EY12
517999 EY

2187.5 EZ7
30885.71 EZ8
16068.29 EZ9
238500 EZ10
104594.6 EZ11
34981.82 EZ12
749837 EZ

4375
11582.14
5356.098
47700
10459.46
6727.273
388989

4032.7380952381
5071.4285714286
5071.4285714286
4032.7380952381
5876.0683760684
10875
17142.857142857
11666.666666667
17083.333333333
9750
18500
12269.230769231

Annual Exp. In $ Customer Spending

180
131400
125
141250
280
289800
350
222250
75
12000
50
5250
60
7500
115
54050
90
27450
265
465075
215
193500
370
107300
1656825 Total

Ejk = PijCiBik

ATHOL FURNITURE INC CASE SOLUTI

1 Site Y is most preferrable location for AFI as it shows highest market

2 According to table 10.18 for 20000 sqft sales area , net operating pro

3 = 0.5 , Sensitivity doesn't changed much its still site Y is preferred lo

= 5 Z is more preferred location with 45% of market share with sale
4 The short coming we realize during solving the case are:

In order to calibrate the model, scenario data is required, and th

the statistical analysis required to calibrate the model may be p

CASE SOLUTION
it shows highest market share among all and Sales area is 20000 sq ft
area , net operating profit is 2.9 % of sales and Expected market Share is 45% for site Y

s still site Y is preferred location.

of market share with salesarea 10000 sqft and 3.9% of net operating Profit as percent of sales

he case are:

data is required, and this data can be expensive to collect. However, this looks like more a users probl
te the model may be perceived as being too difficult

ike more a users problem rather than a vendors problem.