Climate Change

the basics and beyond

The Sources
The IPCC and Beyond

Who can you trust?

IPCC
` U.S. Global Change Research Program
(www.globalchange.gov)
` Other Government Organizations
`

NOAA, EPA, NASA

The Rough Guide to Climate Change (the

Queen of England says so)
` Union of Concerned Scientists (non-profit)
` Al Gore well, maybe not the best source
`

WHO IS THE IPCC?

`
`

`
`
`
`

Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change

WHO? Panel of scientists,
` open to all 194 member nations of UN
` thousands of scientists contribute, voluntary
WHAT? review and assess, no original
research
WHEN? First Assessment Report, 1990
` Most Recent: AR5, Nov. 11, 2013
Why?
How?

The IPCC Bureau

Rajendra K. Pachauri
Chairman, India

Christopher Field
WGII Co-Chair,
USA

Taka Hiraishi
TFB Co-Chair, Japan

Ogunlade Davidson
Vice Chair, Sierra
Leone

JeanPascalvanYpersele
Hoesung Lee
Vice Chair, Republic of
Vice Chair, Belgium
Korea

Vincente Barros
Ramon Pichs-Madruga
WGII Co-chair, Argentina WGIII Co-chair, Cuba

Morocco

Madagascar

Ottmar Edenhofer
WGIII Co-chair,
Germany

Sudan

Thomas
Stocker
WG1 Co-chair,
Switzerland

Youba Sokona
WGIII Co-chair,
Mali

Islamic Republic
of Iran

Dahe Qin
WG1 Co-chair,
China

Thelma Krug
TFB Co-chair, Brazil

Maldives

Mexico

Why do people not like the IPCC?

Several errors in last report: ex. Himalayan
glaciers melting by 2035* (nope, theyre not)
` grey literature
` Peer Reviewed Literature: what is it?
` Transparency issues: facts and sources are,
choosing the writers isnt. However, there are
MANY reviewers.*
`

(* = The Economist, Feb 6, 2010)

In Summary
` The

IPCC is.

LEGIT

Climate Change 102

The Greenhouse Effect and Beyond

The Greenhouse effect

Increased atmospheric temperatures caused when atmospheric

gases such as carbon dioxide and methane trap heat in Earths
atmosphere.

The Electro Magnetic Spectrum

`
`

Sunlight = shortwave radiation

Infrared (heat) = longwave radiation

Greenhouse Gases
`

Atmospheric gases such

as carbon dioxide and
methane that retain heat
much like a greenhouse;
solar energy can get in,
but heat cannot easily
escape.

What makes a Gas BAD?

We love some molecules, like N2 and O2
So what makes some gases Greenhouse ones and others not?
1.
2.
3.

Size and structure of the molecule

How long it stays in the atmosphere
How many of them are out there
Now to the Key Players

Structure of a Molecule
Good Molecules

Bad Molecules

The Key Players

#1: Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Sources: burning of fossil fuels,
decomposition of organic material,
animal respiration.
How Strong? CO2 = Baseline
How Long? Long: Over a century (RG)
How much? A LOT
Jan 2010 = 388 ppm (NOAA, Mauna
Loa Observatory)

#2: Methane (CH4)

Sources: production and transport of
coal, natural gas, and oil. Also from
livestock and other agricultural
practices and by the decay of organic
waste in landfills and natural areas.
(EPA)
How Strong? Absorbs 25 times more
heat than a carbon dioxide during their
(unequal) lifespans.
How Long? Less than a decade (RG)
How much? A lot less, < 2ppm (RG)

CFCs and HFCs

Sources: coolants (freon), solvents in
cleaners, and propellants (aerosols).
However, the manufacture of these
compounds is being phased out by the
Montreal Protocol because they
contribute to ozone depletion.
How Strong? VERY! Up to 12,000
times stronger than CO2. But they also
cause ozone depletion which has a
cooling affect.
How Long? Big Range (14-270 at least)
Dichlorodifluoromethane (aka CFC-12), a
chlorofluorocarbon and greenhouse gas.

How much? VERY scant

Wikipedia, Global Warming Potential

Nitrous Oxide (N20)

Sources: Industrial
Byproduct
How Strong? VERY- 300
times CO2
How Long? A century
How much? Teeny tiny:
300 ppb
(RG)

Water (Really?... Yes, Really.)

Sources: Evaporation
How Strong? Not Very
How Long? Variable:
dependent on air temp
How much? A TON!
Water vapor accounts for
3672% of the greenhouse
affect that we see on earth.
However, this is mostly not
human caused.

OZONE: Friend or Foe?

Sources: Forms when sunlight hits pollutants or O
Whens it good? High up in the stratosphere where it
filters out UV radiation
When its bad? Near ground level in the troposphere,
where unhealthy levels can build up (smog), GHG.
How strong? Not very??? (25% of CO2)
How long? 22 days in troposphere.
How much? Hard to measure, scant for GHG

Whats Already Happened

Abiotic evidence of a climate changed

Its Getting Hotter!

`

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many
of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The
atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have
diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases
have increased.

. IPCC 2013

No causality nor predictions

No need for likeliness indicators. It HAS happened

More importantly, the RATE of warming

` Linear warming trend for past 50 years (0.13C/decade) is nearly double
that of the past 100 yrs (1906-2005).

Surface Air Temperature

Oceans
`
`
`
`
`
`
`

Land regions have warmed faster than oceans (and cool?)

Global Ocean Temps , to depths of 3000m
This accounts for 90% of heat added to the system since
1971
Sea Level Rise (next)
Ocean Acidification
Salinity changes
ENSO Cycles (El Nino)

Ocean Currents:
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)

Sea Level Rise

(IPCC 2013)

Precipitation Changes

Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over

the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation
between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will
increaese, although there may be regional exceptions. (IPCC, 2013)

Arctic Thaw and Glacial Melting

`

Over the last two decades, the

Greenland and Antartic ice
sheets have been losing mass,
glaciers have continued to
shrink almost worldwide, and
Arctic sea ice and Northern
Hemisphere spring snow cover
have continued to decrease in
extent (high confidence)

IPCC 2013

In Conclusion(dum dum duuuuuum)

`

A large fraction of climate change resulting from CO2 emmisions is

irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the
case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a
sustained period. Surface temperatures will remain approximately
constant at elevated levels for many centuries anfter a complete
cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long
time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean
warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario,
about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere
longer than 1,000 years. (IPCC 2013).

What do we do now??
`

PANIC! Nonot really.

But we do have to
prepare for a changing
climate.

GSC 350
Natural Disasters

Volcanoes

Different types
x What they produce
x Why? How?
Plate

Tectonics and how they relate

What types of volcanoes and where?

Relation

to internal Earth movements

Hotspots

GSC 350
Natural Disasters

What

volcanoes produce

Different magma types

Volcano

products and their dangers

Flows
Lahars
Others
Different

types of eruptions
How to classify volcanoes (types)

GSC 350
Natural Disasters

Landslides

Forces
Causes
Types (4)
x Unique aspects of each type (diagrams)
Clays
Daylighting

_______

How does this lead to failure?

Listen

to the trees

GSC 350
Natural Disasters

Friction

and its part in landslides

Overcoming forces diagram

Sinkholes
Land

Subsidence

Different causes
Frozen

ground

GSC 350
Natural Disasters

Hurricanes

Formation
Characteristics
Wind within the storm
Global

wind patterns

The pretty diagram with all the arrows

Know different zones, where they are and how

they move
(Lat and Long)

GSC 350
Natural Disasters

Categorizing
Hurricane

Hurricanes

damage

Products
Global

warming terms and results

GSC 350
Natural Disasters

Case

studies are to be understood, but

the specifics are not important

Be

able to create a topographic profile

Rock
50

fall runout-length calculation

multiple choice + several short answer,

diagram, definitions

GSC 350
Natural Disasters

Bring

a scantron, pencils, eraser, scratch

paper, ruler, and a calculator.