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Electric Vehicles:
A Force for the Future
Collaboration Inside and Outside the Automotive
Industry Will Be Key to Electric Vehicle Development
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Bob Lutz: The Man Who Revived the Electric Car, http://www.newsweek.com/id/81580
Exxon and Electrovaya Launch Car Program in Baltimore, http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/email/alert/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsLang=en&newsId=20090623005671
http://press.edf.com/the-edf-group/press/press-releases/noeud-communiques-et-dossier-de-presse/renault-and-edf-strengthen-collaboration-on-zero-emission-electric-vehicle-602317.html
U.S. Postal Service: Electrification of Delivery Vehicles, http://www.uspsoig.gov/FOIA_files/DA-WP-09-001.pdf
Cars Online 09/10, Capgemini (study spans the U.S., Western Europe and the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China), 2009
Automotive
Sales (Global)
Number
Sales
4,000,000
3,750,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,100,000
2,000,000
1,600,000
1,500,000
1,090,000
1,000,000
700,000
500,000
390,000
195,000 230,000
5,000
20,000
30,000
1997
1998
1999
55,000 110,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009F
2010F
2020
Forecast
Sales expected to surge at a CAGR of 12% during 2008-2015
Hybrid car sales in the U.S. market are likely to cross 1 million by 2012
Hybrid vehicle production in Japan is projected to hit a CAGR of 6.6% from 2008 to 2011
Sources: Capgemini analysis; Global Hybrid Car Market Forecast to 2010, RNCOS
development of a recharging
infrastructure. The current low
distance capability and frequent
recharging necessitates a significant
number of charging points, which will
require considerable planning and
investment.
Market acceptance: Current electric
vehicles do not yet meet consumer
expectations regarding speed, power,
performance, recharging capability,
distance and, especially, price.
Price: Prices of new electric hybrid
vehicles have begun to drop
In a general sense, electric vehicles are powered by electricity to some degree or another.
However, there are a number of different types of electric vehicles, including but not
limited to:
Gasoline/electric hybrid vehicle: has both a gas and an electric motor, and is based
on two energy carriers: liquid and battery. A gasoline/electric hybrid vehicle typically has
a limited electric range. The electric propulsion can be mobilized for short urban trips,
but the true utility of the electrical energy is to serve as a boost for the gas engine. The
electricity is produced in the vehicle (recovery through regenerative braking); these
vehicles do not need to be recharged.
Rechargeable hybrid vehicle: also called a plug-in vehicle. This is a primarily electric
vehicle that also has a small combustion engine. Typically it can be used at 100%
electric power in the city with a distance capability per charge of approximately 50 km.
Electricity must be provided by the electric network grid. This type of vehicle does not
require complicated recharging terminals; existing electrical outlets in most public and
private parking areas may be sufficient.
Fully electric vehicle: 100% electric vehicle without any type of heat engine. A pure
electric vehicle requires prior creation of an infrastructure for recharging batteries.
Currently the distance capability per charge of a pure electric vehicle is still low (about
200 km) and the cost is high.
Automotive
Scenarios
2020
New vehicle, % market
share (e.g., France)
A. Limbo
B. Market Specific
C. Classic Expansion
D. New Model
Expansion
1% = 20,000
5% = 100,000
15% = 300,000
15% = 300,000
Electric vehicles % of
global market
<0.3% = 100,000
1.7% = 500,000
5% = 1,500,000
5% = 1,500,000
Dynamic in 2020
The dynamic is
not built
The technical
maturity is present
but the lack of
consultation and
cooperation has
adversely affected
the development
The social
consensus, the
organized
convergence of
infrastructure,
standards, regulated
and deregulated
operators trigger a
lasting market
Progress of electric
vehicles
Progress of gas
Progress of electric
vehicles
Progress of electric
vehicles
Progress of electric
vehicles
Price of energy
Price of energy
Fleets, Autolib,
cargo and urban
mobility, CSP**,
sport
Open
New business
models, new vision
of vehicle, new
mobilities
Owner
Owner
Some urban public
terminal
Owner
Online standard
terminal network
Vehicle to grid
Owner
Online standard
terminal network
Vehicle to grid
Political
Technical
Energy
Segments
Charge
Discharge
Source: Capgemini
* Autolib (Automobile Libert) is an electric car-sharing plan in Paris
** CSP = Socio-professional category of consumers with higher incomes
Dynamic in 2020: Arrows refer to unchanged, changed and changed considerably
Technical Scenarios 2020: Arrows refer to the degree of progress, with a greater number of arrows indicating greater progress
Energy Scenarios 2020: Arrows refer to the anticipated increase in energy prices, with a greater number of arrows indicating higher price increases
Automotive
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