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The Moribund State of the IBM Mainframe

Migration Market
Published: 16 April 2015

Analyst(s): Dale Vecchio

Despite a growing number of inquiries by Gartner clients regarding IBM

mainframe migrations, IT leaders rightfully ask: if the growth in inquiries is an
indication of growing interest, then why are the migration vendors showing
so little progress?

Key Findings

IT cost reduction demands are increasingly eyeing the mainframe as a source of cost savings.

Almost half way through the decade of retirements for baby boomers, a growing number of
mainframe shops are faced with a migration or training option.

IBM continues to innovate and invest in this key computing platform, offering clients a variety of
on-platform modernization options.

Recommendations

Objectively measure the cost profile of IT spending in order to identify whether the mainframe is
really the source of the cost problem.

Small-to-midsize mainframe shops must consider their migration options or invest heavily in
growing a younger workforce. The market will not do this for you.

Before your organization chooses to migrate off the IBM mainframe, be sure you fully
understand the on-platform modernization options available.

Analysis
The IBM mainframe migration market remains an enigma. Despite hundreds of inquiries regarding
mainframe migrations during the past five years, Gartner has seen no pure-play mainframe
migration vendor flourish in the marketplace. In fact, the opposite has happened: Vendors have
struggled to gain mind share, vacillated in their marketing messaging and sales strategies,

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floundered with their indirect sales channels and partners, and occasionally disappeared from the
market altogether. The question is, "Why?"
None of the market dynamics that have driven Gartner client inquiries in this area have changed.
Concerns over cost, skills and agility remain. If so many clients and increasingly large ones are
asking about migrating off the mainframe, why aren't they doing so in growing numbers?
There could be a simple explanation. Maybe the clients are migrating their application workloads off
the mainframe by replacing their applications with packaged solutions, rather than by modernizing
them. For example, a client with a homegrown sales order processing system on the mainframe
may be more likely to select and implement a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) ERP solution in its
target infrastructure. Another example might be a client that has a mainframe application where
there is no sensible COTS replacement, but it migrates off the mainframe by running a "greenfield"
development project as a complete replacement, without using the existing system as a template.
Of course, both these scenarios and their variants are being used by a proportion of the
market. However, there will still remain a number of situations in which mainframe code migration
ought to be a viable option, but still the market for these solutions seems moribund. So, we repeat
the question: "Why?"

Change Is Hard
For many organizations, the problem is not only one of technological change, but also of human
change. People don't like change. They particularly don't like it when it impacts their position of
knowledge and power in the workplace. Staff who have invested decades in a particular platform
and technology set, such as the IBM mainframe, fight any attempts at modernization that involve
migration to a newer technology stack. Although vendors have proposed myriad modernization
options to many companies, the internal workforce continually points out all the reasons they won't
work. After all, this is a technology displacement project. Your resistant staff doesn't have to win the
debate; it just has to postpone it long enough that it goes away.
IT leadership needs to leverage the knowledge of these key subject matter experts, while
overcoming their resistance to change. Their business process knowledge is more important than
their technical skills and should be used throughout the modernization process. However, they do
need to buy in to the process. Procrastination is not a strategy. Postponing this decision isn't going
to make it any easier, less costly or less risky in the future.
Recommendation: Small-to-midsize mainframe shops must consider their migration options or
invest heavily in growing a younger workforce. The market will not do this for you.

It's More Complicated Than It Looks

It's often much easier to talk about a mainframe migration than it is to actually do one. Three factors
impact the complexity and risk of a mainframe migration: size, complexity and heterogeneity (see
"Measure Three Key Factors That Affect Mainframe Migration Cost and Risk"). Mainframe
migrations require courage and strong leadership to overcome the inevitable complexities that will
be discovered during the migration process. CIOs who aren't committed to the endgame should

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come up with a different modernization plan. Don't presume you understand your systems; act to
ensure you understand them. Systems that have been running for decades have plenty of hidden
complexities built into them that are no longer apparent. Understand the existing systems,
interfaces and data models in sufficient detail to see the complexity inherent in your migration plan.
Use pace layers, application portfolio management (APM) and Gartner's tolerate, invest, migrate,
eliminate (TIME) model to plan your efforts.
Recommendation: Objectively measure the cost profile of IT spending in order to identify whether
the mainframe is really the source of the cost problem.

Vendors Overpromise and Underdeliver

Accept the reality that vendors can't do all they say they'll do as easily as they say they can do it.
This doesn't make them bad, but it's critical that you have realistic expectations of the role the
vendors can fulfill. While you can outsource the effort to the vendor to execute the migration
project, you can't outsource the responsibility it's still yours.

IBM Fights Back

IBM has not stood still over the past decade, and has introduced significant innovation on this
stalwart platform. Reduced hardware pricing on the newer platforms is common, but software
pricing remains relatively high and is less susceptible to discounting. IBM specialty engines,
WebSphere/Java, Linux for System z and significant enhancements to Customer Information
Control System Transaction Server (CICS TS) have been introduced by the vendor over the past 10
years, offering many modernization options on the platform. Gartner has found, however, that many
mainframe shops are unfamiliar with all the things that IBM has done on this platform. They are
measuring modern options against a mainframe hardware and software environment that may be
over a decade old. Organizations running on aging system software and hardware may have
crossed the point of no return. The cost and complexity of upgrading is so onerous that migration
becomes a more attractive option. However, organizations that are relatively current on their
hardware/software platform should ensure they have investigated the IBM modernization options for
this platform. Gartner also recommends that organizations show a willingness to support the
mainframe ISV community that remains, regardless of how big or small their companies may be.

A Distracted IT Community
Mainframe migration projects, when seen as both complex and confrontational, often take a back
seat to other IT initiatives. Ignoring any of the issues associated with the mainframe platform and an
application's codebase written decades ago, using different technologies and architectural styles
more commonly used today will not increase the chance of success of any future modernization
project. Organizations need to put modernization as a project high on the list of IT activities.
Ignoring the growing problem is not a plan. Senior IT leadership needs to take ownership and
responsibility for the effort. Don't affix blame; define solutions.
All modernization projects are not created equal, and organizations need to work their way toward
their desired destination. Gartner's Pace-Layered Application Strategy defines a way for companies

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to identify the applications that are systems of record versus those that represent systems of
differentiation or systems of innovation. Focus on the business processes where your organization
wishes to differentiate or innovate, and target those for modernization. Consider packaged solutions
as replacements for systems of record.
Furthermore, application portfolio management efforts can help clarify priorities for modernization.
Gartner's TIME model can also be used to identify appropriate modernization approaches for
various applications in the portfolio.
Recommendation: Before your organization chooses to migrate off the IBM mainframe, be sure you
fully understand the on-platform modernization options available.

Bottom Line
Mainframe migration projects of any type should be considered against the backdrop of a much
broader application strategic plan. Tactical migration projects that may reduce platform spending,
or ameliorate skills concerns, are valuable, but not strategic. Given the cost, complexity and risk of
many mainframe migrations efforts, a broader strategic destination must be defined as a
justification for these projects. Mainframe migrations are not inevitable, nor necessarily
recommended. However, "do decision" is not a viable long-term modernization plan. Mainframe
organizations must act, and not simply allow this stalwart platform to coast into oblivion. It deserves
better than that.

Gartner Recommended Reading

Some documents may not be available as part of your current Gartner subscription.
"Measure Three Key Factors That Affect Mainframe Migration Cost and Risk"
"Mainframe Modernization: The Four Keys to Success"
"IT Modernization Presents Data Migration Issues"
"Toolkit: Application Fitness and Value Review"
"How to Assess Your Current Applications Using Fitness and Value Review Processes"

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