The messy US strategy in #Syria - Pepe Escobar

The messy US strategy in Syria

Pepe Escobar
Published time: 13 Aug, 2015 13:56
Ints Kalnins
Ints Kalnins / Reuters
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi
Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir met last week in Doha to find ways in theory solve
the Syrian puzzle.
And what followed - predictably - is a bloody mess.
Al-Jubeir has been talking to Lavrov in Moscow. A delegation from the Syrian
opposition no jihadists - has also been to Moscow. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad
Zarif should have traveled to Ankara to talk Syria with the Turks, but he canceled the
trip. Instead hes in Pakistan and is expected in Moscow next week.
All roads to some sort of peace in Damascus seem to lead to Moscow. Meanwhile, facts
on the ground spell otherwise; forces of the Syrian Arab Republic continue to fight what
the West calls moderate rebels plus a score of drop-dead jihadists.
What came out of the Kerry/Lavrov get-together was in fact an Unidentified Foreign
Bombing Object (UFBO). Whats the story with this UFBO?
In theory, UFBO reveals the US finally decided to bomb Islamic State (IS, formerly
ISIS) with a view to clearing the ground towards a political solution. Add to this
interpretation the arrival of six US F-16s, two support military planes and 300 US
personnel at NATOS Incirlik base in Turkey.
Yet UFBOs Turkish branch is outright puzzling to say the least. Turkey is essentially
bombing Kurds, not IS, while providing the Syrian insurgency theoretically nonjihadist - on the ground with a lot of weapons for a restructuring process.
Translation (subject to revision): Erdogans boys have received the green light to do
whatever they want in northern Syria. And they chose not to disturb the fake Caliphate
goons, but double down on bombing Kurds and advancing regime change in Damascus
all in the same package.
Erdogans excuse is that the PKK as in the PKK-affiliated Syrian Kurd YPG units should be prevented from controlling areas in northern Syria that they did not
historically control.

But theres the rub. The Obama administration now seems to have adopted yet another
180-degree turn, shelving for now the much-ballyhooed $500 million
training/weaponizing of moderate rebels to the benefit of trying to work alongside the
YPG.
So obviously Washingtons strategy has nothing to do with Ankaras, which privileges
bombing Kurds under the pretext of fighting Assad.
This being the strategically clueless Obama administration, Washington is not really sure
it should embrace the YPG. As if the Pentagon would tremble with fear at Ankaras
wrath. Or the wrath of Americas Arab vassals. Still the Pentagon always impervious
to irony - admits this is a fragile strategy.
Isnt it fabulous that so-called Kurdish sovereignty movements are scaring the hell out
of everybody?
Abdalrhman Ismail
Abdalrhman Ismail / Reuters
Wheres my regime change?
A case can be made that the Obama administrations real plan for Syria actually remains
this Brookings Institution regime change mish mash. To a certain extent, thats whats
already happening on the ground; a subplot of regime change without the real thing,
with Damascus unable to control vast swaths of Syrian territory.
So how do jihadist gangs fit into all this?
Ahrar al-Sham - a Syrian Islamist bunch - has already issued a statement supporting
the US/Turkish strategy of creating an IS -free zone in northern Syria. Even though this
is not what Turkey is after.
And Al-Nusra Front as in Al-Qaeda in Syria, now fully normalized in the US as
moderate rebels decided to tactically withdraw from north of Aleppo. Translation:
they got their marching orders from the Americans and the Turks.
And that leads to a spectacular cloud of wishful thinking currently drifting via Saudicontrolled media all across the Middle East; the notion that Ankara has displayed a lot of
ability in dealing with rebel (formerly jihadist) outfits so the moderate rebels the US
favors are ultimately successful.
On the ground though, the development entails a more ominous phenomenon; the
coming of age of a so-called buffer zone in northern Syria. But theres the extra rub: no
one knows what kind of moderate rebels and/or nasty jihadi mix will be controlling
this vast territory.
Certified losers will be the Syrian Kurds of the YPG. This is not exactly what
Washington wants. Or maybe it is. After all, the Obama administration itself does not

have a clue if they want it or not.

What the Turks and Americas Arab vassals do want is for Syrian moderate rebels,
jihadists included, to get together and make a decisive play to conquer Aleppo. Syrias
largest city also happens to be Erdogans key strategic target. That, according to Ankara
and the House of Sauds wet dreams, would be the beginning of the road towards regime
change.
And regime change is exactly what Jubeir spelled out to Lavrov once again in Moscow.
Lavrov was polite enough to observe their differences over Syria remain even as
Moscow is doing everything possible to facilitate some sort of intra-Syrian dialogue.
Abdalrhman Ismail
Abdalrhman Ismail / Reuters
Now for the road map
Life is hard for Russia in the diplomatic front, having to deal with so many lightweights.
One of them, Khaled al-Khoja, president of a National Coalition for Syrian
Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (which virtually nobody ever heard of) has just
been to Moscow and met Lavrov. He said the Russian-Iranian proposal to end the Syrian
tragedy is unworkable; he insists the only way is Assad must go.
Assad may eventually go but that will take a lot of diplomatic work.
Still, it seems Doha yielded a particular important decision; there wont be a partition of
Syria. No imperial Balkanization. If Kerry actually agreed to that, call it a real gamechanger.
So a road map now implies a transition, organized according to a Russian proposal,
with input from Iran. That would entail a sort of managed departure of Bashar Assad; a
real coalition to fight IS, including the Arabs and Iran; and no discrimination against
Shia or Alawites in any future Syrian scenario.
Americas Arab vassals are still reluctant to admit that the most developed parts of Syria
which support Assad, and/or are defended by Hezbollah and Iran wont submit, by
weapons or otherwise, to any possible Sunni majority. And this while Damascus remains
calm about the whole military and security situation in the capital and environs all the
way to the Lebanese border.
At the same time, the House of Saud at least started to listen in theory to what
Moscow is saying. That includes Putins suggestion of a real coalition against IS not
this US/Turkey UFBO - including Damascus, Riyadh and Tehran, as well as Ankara and
Amman.
Moscows proposal also includes a major regional conference to clear the final hurdles including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, the UN, US and Russia.

The diplomatic merit of the initiative is obvious. And yet Erdogan chose to spin it in his
own reductionist way: Putins current attitude toward Syria is more encouraging than
before. He is no longer of the opinion that Russia will support Assad to the end. I believe
he can give up Assad.
Omar Sanadiki
Omar Sanadiki / Reuters
There will be blowback
All strands of demented neo-Ottomanism may be attributed to Caliph Erdogan with
or without merit. But the facts on the UFBO ground are spelling it clearly; Ankara is
going after the Kurds and totally ignoring IS. Turkish foreign minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu put it bluntly: There is no difference between PKK and Daesh [Arabic
acronym for IS]. And that, in itself, is blowing up the Obama administrations
strategy.
The Pentagon is fuming. No wonder there have been leaks to Fox News by the
proverbial, invisible military sources, telling of outraged Pentagon generals when
Ankara started its own UFBO against the Kurds just hours after striking a deal to bomb
the fake Caliphate alongside the US.
Not even Hollywood could come up with this friendly-fire subplot; US special forces in
northern Iraq advising and training Kurdish Peshmergas scrambling to their underground
bunkers as the Turkish UFBO attacks the mountains where the PKK is headquartered.
Erdogan is sufficiently nuts in his Kurd hatred to risk reducing US Special Forces to
ashes.
Not that this fracas is widely noticed in the Beltway. Its only attributed to tension with
a reluctant ally which formerly turned a blind eye to the illicit activity of IS. Heres
to the normalization of beheading as a mere illicit activity.
Spare a thought for Caliph Erdogans sleepless nights. He looks at his southern border
with Syria and all he sees is the ghost of an autonomous Kurdish state. So he bombs and
bombs. And just as hes falling asleep in contentment, blowback strikes.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the
author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.
Source:
http://www.rt.com/op-edge/312361-syria-us-russia-kurds/