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  • Assessing The Potential Impact of The 2015-2016 El Niño On The California Rim Fire Burn Scar Through Debris Flow Hazard Mapping

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    jpeterson1
    325 vizualizări20 pagini
    Steven Larcom, North Carolina State University Wildfires are a perennial issue for California, and the current record-breaking drought is exacerbating the potential problems for the state. Fires leave behind burn scars characterized by diminished vegetative cover and abundant bare soil, and these areas are especially susceptible to storm events that pose an elevated risk of debris flows and sediment-rich sheet wash. This study focused on the 2013 Rim Fire that devastated significant portions of Stanislaus National Forest and Yosemite National Park, and utilized readily available NASA JPL SRTM elevation data and AVIRIS spectral imaging data to construct a debris flow hazard map that assesses mass wasting risk for the Rim Fire burn scar. Parameters that were taken into consideration when constructing this map were derived entirely from remotely sensed data, and include hill slope (greater than 30 percent rise), burn severity (assessed by calculating NDVI), and clay content of the soil (by comparing spectral reflectance of AVIRIS images with the reference spectra of illite). By calculating percent of total burn area, 6% was classified as low risk, 55% as medium risk, and 39% as high risk. In addition, this study assessed the importance of the 2015-2016 El Niño, which is projected to be one of the strongest on record, by studying historic rainfall records and storm events of past El Niño's. Hydrological and infrastructural problems that could be caused by short-term convective or long-term synoptic storms and subsequent debris flows were explored as well.

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    Assessing the potential impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño on the California Rim Fire burn scar through debris flow hazard mapping

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    Steven Larcom, North Carolina State University Wildfires are a perennial issue for California, and the current record-breaking drought is exacerbating the potential problems for the state. Fires leave behind burn scars characterized by diminished vegetative cover and abundant bare soil, and these areas are especially susceptible to storm events that pose an elevated risk of debris flows and sediment-rich sheet wash. This study focused on the 2013 Rim Fire that devastated significant portions of Stanislaus National Forest and Yosemite National Park, and utilized readily available NASA JPL SRTM elevation data and AVIRIS spectral imaging data to construct a debris flow hazard map that assesses mass wasting risk for the Rim Fire burn scar. Parameters that were taken into consideration when constructing this map were derived entirely from remotely sensed data, and include hill slope (greater than 30 percent rise), burn severity (assessed by calculating NDVI), and clay content of the soil (by comparing spectral reflectance of AVIRIS images with the reference spectra of illite). By calculating percent of total burn area, 6% was classified as low risk, 55% as medium risk, and 39% as high risk. In addition, this study assessed the importance of the 2015-2016 El Niño, which is projected to be one of the strongest on record, by studying historic rainfall records and storm events of past El Niño's. Hydrological and infrastructural problems that could be caused by short-term convective or long-term synoptic storms and subsequent debris flows were explored as well.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    325 vizualizări20 pagini

    Assessing The Potential Impact of The 2015-2016 El Niño On The California Rim Fire Burn Scar Through Debris Flow Hazard Mapping

    Încărcat de

    jpeterson1
    Steven Larcom, North Carolina State University Wildfires are a perennial issue for California, and the current record-breaking drought is exacerbating the potential problems for the state. Fires leave behind burn scars characterized by diminished vegetative cover and abundant bare soil, and these areas are especially susceptible to storm events that pose an elevated risk of debris flows and sediment-rich sheet wash. This study focused on the 2013 Rim Fire that devastated significant portions of Stanislaus National Forest and Yosemite National Park, and utilized readily available NASA JPL SRTM elevation data and AVIRIS spectral imaging data to construct a debris flow hazard map that assesses mass wasting risk for the Rim Fire burn scar. Parameters that were taken into consideration when constructing this map were derived entirely from remotely sensed data, and include hill slope (greater than 30 percent rise), burn severity (assessed by calculating NDVI), and clay content of the soil (by comparing spectral reflectance of AVIRIS images with the reference spectra of illite). By calculating percent of total burn area, 6% was classified as low risk, 55% as medium risk, and 39% as high risk. In addition, this study assessed the importance of the 2015-2016 El Niño, which is projected to be one of the strongest on record, by studying historic rainfall records and storm events of past El Niño's. Hydrological and infrastructural problems that could be caused by short-term convective or long-term synoptic storms and subsequent debris flows were explored as well.

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    Assessing the potential impact of the

    2015-2016 El Nio on the California


    Rim Fire burn scar through debris
    flow hazard mapping
    Steven Larcom
    Shane Grigsby
    Dr. Susan Ustin

    Rim Fire:
    257,314 acres; $127.35 million

    Images from Jason Schroeder, SEAC4RS Mission, taken on


    DC-8

    A debris flow is a moving mass of loose mud, soil,


    rock, water, and air that travels down a slope under
    the influence of gravity
    Dangerous!

    Perfect timing: post-fire debris flows


    typically occur within 2 years of fire
    Factors:
    1)slope
    2)vegetation burn severity
    3)erodibility of soil
    **precipitation

    Elevation
    DEM obtained from NASA JPL Shuttle Radar
    Topography Mission (SRTM)
    High

    Low
    No data

    Slope
    Steep

    Gradual
    No data

    NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) is used to


    measure vegetation life
    High

    Medium

    Low
    Derived from NASA AVIRIS (Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging
    Spectrometer) images

    Spectral matching of clay (illite) with burn scar


    Agreement

    Disagreement

    Derived from NASA AVIRIS images

    Risk assessment map


    High

    Medium

    Low
    No data

    Percent of Area
    Low = 6%
    Medium = 55%
    High = 39%

    The 2015-16 El Nio is forecasted to be one of the


    strongest on record

    From NOAAs NWS


    Climate Prediction Center

    Oct-Nov-Dec 2015

    Jan-Feb-Mar 2016

    1982-1983 El Nio

    1997-1998 El Nio

    Recurrence Interval

    "Both convective thunderstorms and


    longer-duration synoptic storms can
    trigger debris flows from susceptible
    recently burned areas, and the
    conditions that result in debris flows
    are frequently occurring, or lowrecurrence interval (<2 to 2 year)
    events."

    Cannon, Susan, and Jerry DeGraff. The Increasing Wildfire and Post-Fire DebrisFlow Threat in Western USA, and Implications for Consequences of Climate Change.
    Landslides Disaster Risk Reduction (2009): 177-190. Print.

    From NOAAs National Weather Service


    Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center Precipitation
    Frequency Data Server (PFDS)

    A 30-day precipitation event with a 2 year recurrence interval is


    estimated to produce 14.3 - 17.4" of rain Expected to cause debris
    flows
    In a 30-day period from January 30 - February 28, 1998, the Rim Fire
    area (Hetch Hetchy) recorded a rainfall of 16.2"

    Red: Daily recorded


    rainfall
    Blue: Running sum of
    rainfall for 30 day period

    Hydrological: Toulumne/Clavey Rivers


    Infrastructural: Forest Routes 1N01, 1N04, 1N10; Cherry Lake Rd
    (Holm and Kirkwood Powerhouses), Evergreen/Hetch Hetchy Rds
    (O'Shaughnessy Dam)

    Hetch Hetchy Hydroelectric System provides


    20% of San Francisco's electrical needs; 85% of
    Bay areas clean water supply.

    39% of the Rim Fire burn scar can be classified


    as high risk
    Historical data provides evidence for future
    precipitation above the debris flow threshold
    A debris flow could impact both immediate and
    remote populations

    January through March will be the best time to


    watch for debris flows
    Hazard map could be used for civil engineering
    purposes (i.e. road strengthening/protection)
    Watch the news!

    Shane Grigsby
    Sean Freeman
    Dr. Susan Ustin
    Dr. Emily Schaller
    Rick Shetter
    Dr. Jack Kaye
    Everyone else who helps to keep SARP going
    year after year!

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