Answer Key To Sample AP-Exam

Statistics Assignment
Full-Length Practice Exam

Answer Sheet
Page 1 of 7
Note to students
For this Assignment, we're letting you see the answer key before you turn it in! You'll be
scored on whether you did the work, not on whether you got the correct answers. Since the
AP Exam is not far off, it's better for you to be able to correct your own work and learn
immediately from your mistakes and your successes.
Answers for Multiple-Choice Section
_____________
1.
21.
2.
22.
3.
23.
4.
24.
5.
25.
6.
26.
7.
27.
8.
28.
9.
29.
10.
30.
11.
31.
12.
32.
13.
33.
14.
34.
15.
35.
16.
36.
17.
37.
18.
38.
19.
39.
20.
40.
Copyright 2000 Apex Learning Inc. All rights reserved. This material is intended for the exclusive use of
registered users only. No portion of these materials may be reproduced or redistributed in any form without the
express written permission of Apex Learning Inc.
Answer Sheet
Page 2 of 7
Free-Response Section
Questions 1-5 should take about 10-15 minutes each. Question 6 is an "Investigative Task,"
and should take about 20-30 minutes. You should do all that you can do in no more than 90
minutes.
1. You draw samples of size n from the population of all pennies in circulation. The random
variable of interest is the mean age of the pennies in the sample (current year pennies
are considered to be zero years old). The distribution of ages of pennies (starting at 0) is
known to be skewed markedly to the right. That is, there are more recently minted
pennies than older pennies in the population. One scholar claims that the mean age of
all pennies in circulation is 7.4 years with a standard deviation of 3.3 years. Assume that
this scholar is correct. Discuss the mean, standard deviation, and shape of the sampling
distribution of sample means of the ages of pennies for each of the given sample sizes.
Where possible, give precise values.
A. n = 5
Answer:
x = = 7.4, x =
3.3
=
= 1.48 ; This is not a large sample, so we would expect
n
5
the shape of the sampling distribution to be similar to the shape of the parent
population. It would be skewed to the right, but less so than the population.
B. n = 15
Answer:
x = = 7.4, x =
3.3
=
= .85 ; This would result in a sampling distribution still
n
15
somewhat skewed to the right but markedly less so than the parent population. The
sampling distribution would appear to be much more approximately normal than that
from samples of size 5.
C. n = 40
Answer:
x = = 7.4, x =
3.3
= .52 ; This is a fairly large sample. Based on the

n
40
Central Limit Theorem, we would expect this sampling distribution to be
approximately normal.
_____________
Answer Sheet
Page 3 of 7
2. A sports car manufacturer paints its cars silver, white, black, and red in the following
proportions:
Color:
Proportion:
Silver
.2
White
.3
Black
.1
Red
.4
We know that 40% of these cars are manufactured with tan leather upholstery while the
remaining 60% are manufactured with gray leather.
A. Assuming that the choice of exterior color and leather color are independent,
what is the probability that a randomly selected sports car from this
manufacturer will be white with gray upholstery?
Answer:
Since the probabilities are independent, any particular combination can be obtained
by simply multiplying the corresponding probabilities together. The information from
doing all of these multiplications can be summarized in the following table:
Silver
White
Black
Red
Tan
.08
.12
.04
.16
Gray
.12
.18
.06
.24
P(white car with gray upholstery) = .18. Note that a student could do this problem
with a tree diagram rather than a table.
B. Assuming that we know the car has tan upholstery, what is the probability that
the car is either silver or white?
Answer:
The proportion of cars with tan upholstery is
.08 + .12 + .04 + .16 = .40. The proportion of these that are either silver or white is
.08 + .12 = .20.
P(car is silver or white | upholstery is tan) = .20/.40 = .5

This problem could also be done with a tree diagram or by referring to Bayes'
Theorem.
3. You are interested in conducting a survey at your school to determine if gender or
ethnicity is related to perceptions about educational opportunity. The school has 1,800
students but you only have resources to interview 100. The student body is
approximately equally divided between males and females. Twelve percent of the
school's population is Asian American, 8% is African American, 10% is Native American,
and 70% is Caucasian. You are interested in being able to generalize the results of your
survey to the entire student body.
_____________
Answer Sheet
Page 4 of 7
A. Describe a technique for obtaining a sample of size 100 that would have a
reasonable chance of producing results that could be generalized to the entire
school.
Answer:
Stratify the sample to reflect the factors you are most interested in. You would make
sure your sample selected 50 males and 50 females. Within each group of 50, you
would randomly select 6 Asian Americans, 4 African Americans, 5 Native Americans,
and 35 Caucasians. In all cases, the samples should be simple random samples from
the sub-populations.
B. Suppose you sent the surveys out to classes and asked the students to
complete them and return them to the main office. Would the returns be likely
to be biased in any direction? If so, why? In what direction?
Answer:
This would be a voluntary response survey, so those who felt most strongly about
the issues involved would be most likely to return the survey. Results would probably
be biased toward those who felt that educational opportunities weren't equal for all
students at the school based on gender and ethnicity.
C. Suppose you decide to conduct the survey by personal interview. Members of
the student council, all of whom happen to be Caucasian, will conduct personal
interviews with the selected students. One of the survey questions reads, "Do
you agree or disagree with the following statement: All students, regardless of
ethnicity, have equal opportunity to become part of student government."
What potential bias is present in this question?
Answer:
There is interviewer bias here. The ethnicity of the interviewer can have an influence
on the responses.
4. The following table gives the inflation rate and the corresponding prime lending rate for
7 different years. The equation of the regression line is:
prime lending rate = 3.175 + .654(inflation rate).
Inflation
Rate (x)
3.3
6.2
11
9.1
5.8
6.5
7.6
Prime Lending
Rate (y)
5.2
8
10.8
7.9
6.8
6.9
9
A. What is the predicted prime lending rate when the inflation rate stands at 6%?
Answer:
prime lending rate = 3.175 + .654(6) = 7.099
_____________
Answer Sheet
Page 5 of 7
B. What is the value of the residual when the inflation rate is 5.8%?
Answer:
residual = actual value predicted value = 6.8 (3.175 + .654(5.8)) = .168
C. Interpret the slope of the regression line for this situation.
Answer:
For each increase of one point in the inflation rate, we would predict an increase of
.654 points in the prime lending rate
D. An eager economist uses these data to predict that the prime lending rate
would be 16.26 if the inflation rate rose to 20%. Comment on this prediction.
Answer:
The largest inflation rate given in the data is 11, so using 20 would be extrapolating
well beyond the bounds of the data, even though the relationship seems linear. It is
highly likely that the actual value would differ from this prediction by a sizeable
amount.
5. The Director of Student Activities is concerned that she has not hired enough security for
the Sadie Hawkins Day dance, and wants to know approximately how many students will
be attending. If more than 25% of the student body is planning on going to the dance,
she will need to hire more security. She sends out a survey to 300 students, and out of
the 285 who respond, 82 say they plan to attend.
A. On the basis of this survey, should the Director of Student Activities hire more
security? Use appropriate statistical evidence to support your conclusion.
Answer:
H0 : p = .25 (25% of students will attend the dance.)
H a : p > .25 (More than 25% of students will attend the dance.)
A one-proportion z-test is appropriate and justified here, since (.25)(285) and
(.75)(285) are both larger than 10.
= 82/285 = .288, z =
p
.288 .25
(.25)(.75)
285
= 1.48 P = 1 .9306 = .07
Note: You could use a confidence interval here. A 95% confidence interval for the
population proportion would be (.235, .340). Note that .25 is in this interval.
This P-value, though not large, is not small enough to allow us to reject the null
hypothesis or conclude that it is highly likely that more than 25% of the student
body will attend the dance. The Student Activities Director probably does not need to
hire additional security.
_____________
Answer Sheet
Page 6 of 7
B. There were 15 people who didn't return their surveys. Suppose they had. Is it
possible that the Student Activities Director's decision would have been
different?
Answer:
The decision was to not hire additional security, since it was not clear that more than
25% of the student body would be attending the dance. The most damaging thing
that could happen would be that all 15 who failed to return their surveys would
decide to attend the dance. In this case,
= 97/300 = .323, z =
p
.323 .25
(.25)(.75)
300
= 2.92 p = 1 .9982 = .0018 (.0017 if you
use the TI-83).

This probability is quite low, and would normally lead to a conclusion that more
security would be needed. The decision would have changed unless the Student
Activities Director had used a significance level of .001.
6. Suppose you have a friend on the school basketball team but, unfortunately, he is not a
good free throw shooter. Over the course of his career, he has only made 40% of his
shots. Otherwise, he is a good player and gets fouled a lot so he shoots 10 free throws a
game, on average. In the biggest game of the season, he does very well and makes 6
out of 10 free throw attempts.
A. Assuming that each shot is independent, set up the expression you would use
to determine the exact probability that your friend actually makes 6 or more
free throws in a given game.
Answer:
Let X be the count of free throws made. X has the binomial distribution
B(10, .4). We are interested in P(X 6).
P(X 6) = P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)
10
10
= (.4)6 (.6)4 + (.4)7 (.6)3 + ... +
6
7
10
(.4)10 (.6)0 .
10
(Though the student does not need to show the actual probability value, p = .1662.)
_____________
Answer Sheet
Page 7 of 7
B. Using the set of random numbers shown here, explain how you would set up a
simulation to determine the probability of making 6 or more free throws out of
10 attempts if your probability of making any one free throw is .4.
98713
51623
21826
41970
04853
19464
65847
94930
19537
00796
57512
53436
96270
18910
78602
49898
08320
97988
17433
54962
84837
45677
37221
36753
42771
52245
46304
07174
41545
39128
38816
71946
51855
01058
96541
62042
17871
00969
47896
47221
76406
88983
24384
75215
39264
89744
25948
98095
35996
05585
Answer:
Mark off blocks of 10 digits. Count the number of digits in each block of 10 that are 6
or larger. Repeat this process 25 times. Average the number of successes in each
trial.
C. Suppose you wanted to do a normal approximation to the binomial for this
situation. What are the mean and standard deviation of the binomial
distribution? Is the normal approximation justified in this situation? Explain
why or why not? Would the normal approximation be justified if n = 100?
Answer:
X = 10(.4) = 4, X =
10(.4)(.6) = 1.549.
To use a normal approximation to the binomial, we require that np 10 and n(1 p)

10. Since 10(.4) = 4 is not greater than 10, we are not justified in using a normal
approximation to the binomial in this situation. It would be OK if n = 100, since
100(.4) and 100(.6) are both greater than 10.
D. One of your friend's attempts during a game is a "one-and-one." That is, if he
makes one free throw, he is given the opportunity to take a second shot.
Assuming each shot is independent, is he most likely to make 0, 1, or 2 points
on a "one-and-one" opportunity.
Answer:
P(0) = .6 (since he misses his first shot, he doesn't get to take a second)
P(1) = (.4)(.6) = .24 (he makes the first shot, misses the second)
P(2) = (.4)(.4) = .16 (he makes both shots)
So he is most likely to make 0 points on the "one-and-one" opportunity.
E. What is the probability that the first free throw he makes is his fourth attempt?
Answer:
(.4)(.6)3 = .0864
TI-83 screens are used with the permission of the publisher. Copyright 1996, Texas
Instruments, Incorporated.
MINITAB is a trademark of Minitab, Inc., and is used herein with the owner's permission.
Portions of MINITAB Statistical Software input and output contained in this course are
printed with permission of Minitab, Inc.
_____________

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Statistics Assignment

Full-Length Practice Exam

= .52 ; This is a fairly large sample. Based on the

P(car is silver or white | upholstery is tan) = .20/.40 = .5

= 1.48 P = 1 .9306 = .07

= 2.92 p = 1 .9982 = .0018 (.0017 if you

use the TI-83).

P(X 6) = P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)

To use a normal approximation to the binomial, we require that np 10 and n(1 p)

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