Singer, ``Life You Can Save.

''

Ch. 1

World Bank extreme-poverty line: < US$1.25 / day, adjusted for purchasing power (correct
term?)

reduction from 1.9 billion (~40%) in 1981 to 1.4 billion (~25%) in ~2007

circa 2007:

600 million South Asia*

380 million Sub-Saharan Africa
200 million China
~300 million Rest of Central & East Asia; Central & South America, Pacific, Middle East, North
Africa, Eastern Europe

* including 455 million in India alone

10 million children + 8 million adults dying ``from poverty'' / year

in wealthy nations:

- reduction in infant mortality from ~10% in 1900 to ~0.5% in ~2007

- ~6% income on buying food, given 40-hour work week
- before 2008 stock market crash, 1100 billionaires in the world with combined wealth of 4.4
trillion
- < $0.01 / day for tap water, but ~$1.50 / bottle for bottled water - yet > 30 billion liters of the
latter in 2006
- archaeologist Tim Jones: wasted food = $100 billion / year

Ch. 2

Singer's syllogism:
1. suffering and death incurred by poverty (lack of food / shelter / medical care) is bad
2. if we have the capability to prevent a bad thing, without sacrificing anything of relatively
similar importance, then we are morally in the wrong
3. if we donate to aid agencies, then we can prevent suffering and death from poverty without
sacrificing anything of similar importance
4. if we do not donate, then we are in the wrong

christianity:
- Luke 18:22-25 (camel & needle), 10:33 (Good Samaritan), 14:13 (feasts), Matthew 19:16-24
(camel), 25:31-46 (least of these brothers), Acts 2:43-47, 4:32-37 (selling worldly possessions)
- Jim Wallis: > 3000 Biblical references to alleviating poverty
- Paul, second letter to Corinthians
- Franciscan vow of poverty

- Aquinas, Summa Theologica (superabundance owed to the poor by natural right), also II-II,
Q66, Article 7 (on theft)

judaism:
- tzedakah = justice (charity)
- Babylonian Talmud, Bava Bathra 9a (charity equal in importance to all other commandments);
Maimonides, Mishneh Torah, ``Laws Concerning Gifts for the Poor,'' 7.5 (10% income for
tzedakah)

islam:
- zakat in proportion to assets (2.5%), for those above a certain minimum wealth
- sadaqa = optional donation of money or labor

confucianism:
- Mengzi [Mencius], Liang Hui Wang I (not I but the weapon)

Ch. 3

US:
- donated $306 billion to charities in 2007, ~75% of which came from individuals
- 7 out of 10 households donate
- average of 50 hours / year of volunteer work
- certain European nations volunteer more: combining financial + volunteering donations, US
behind Netherlands and Sweden

- 1/3 of donations goes to religious institutions, about < 10% of which goes to aid for developing
countries
- after religion, education is next largest recipient
- total donations = 2.2% of GNI; donations to foreign aid = 0.07% of GNI
- in 2006, OECD ranked US behind 20 other developed countries in gov't spending on foreign
aid
- OECD says US private spending on foreign aid, though greater than gov't spending, still below
that of Australia, Canada, Ireland, Switzerland, i.e., very low
- Americans think 15-20% of gov't spending goes to foreign aid, when < 1% is accurate

refutations to Glennview students:

- we don't accept total moral relativism in practice
- free speech is not coercion
- we are privileged merely by being born into comfortable circumstances
- having the right to do something does not tells us what we should do

``few people'' support total libertarianism, wherein there is no state-supported welfare or

healthcare, so most of us must believe to a certain extent that we owe help to those in need even
if we did not wrong them personally

pie arguments:
- richest 2% own half the pie
- richest 10% own 85% of the pie
- bottom 50% own 1% of the pie

- ...but Singer is concerned with absolute, not relative poverty, and entrepreneurs increase wealth
in absolute terms

the rich harm the poor in developing countries by depleting resources & selling to wealthy
corporations & consumers elsewhere

agriculture is 4% of economy in US, but 40% in Malawi, where 90% of population is subsistance
farmers

practicality and leftist concerns:

- Paul Gomberg
- Gaetano Cipriano
- Singer wants to be open-minded about approaches to poverty
- Oxfam actually does advocacy work for a fairer ``economic order''
- we usually do not want to give money / food directly to the poor, except in crises
- most people do not have the investment abilities of Warren Buffett
- Claude Rosenberg: better to give now than later because the cost at which fixing social
problems grows is ``exponentially greater'' than that of return on capital
- Alan Ryan suggests it is natural to care more about friends & family than strangers - but is their
physical need comparable?

Ch. 4

human nature is full of cognitive biases that impair our ability to reason about ethics and act
accordingly

- Identifiable Victim bias (leads to ``rule of rescue'')

- parochialism
- ``futility thinking'' bias
- Diffusion of Responsibility (e.g. Kitty Genovese, though this is disputed)
- sense of fairness (for rewards for actions)
- money makes us less close to others (Vohs-Meade-Goode experiment)

Gates: think about improving the entire world, not ``relative positions'' (America at end of WW2)

argument from naturality is unsatisfactory: many behaviors that helped our ancestors in their
environments are either useless or detrimental to us now

evoluton has no moral direction

Singer's NYT piece that elicited Glennview, also brought a $600000 boost to UNICEF and
Oxfam (individually or jointly?)

Ch. 5. Creating a Culture of Giving

50% League
- founded by Chris & Anne Ellinger

- Tom & Bree Hsieh committed to living on less than the US median income, meaning <
$46000 / year (specifically, $38000 in 2006)
- Paul Farmer, who cofounded Partners in Health
- John Hunting, who founded the Beldon Fund

Shang-Croson radio donation-soliciting experiment (90$ percentile)

Jesus & Maimonides: do not sound a trumpet when you give to the poor; Singer:
consequentialistically, you should, so long as you give, and even more so if it gets more people
to join

in UK, the Foster Parents Plan group links children in developing countries with ``foster parents''
in affluent ones, thereby overcoming several of the biases mentioned in Ch. 4

organ donors: 12% of Germans registered, 99.98% of Austrians

making giving part of corporate culture:

- before being sold to JPMorgan Chase, Bear Stearns required senior managing directors to give
> 4% of their salary + bonuses to nonprofits, and to give proof of this with tax returns
- Bear Stearns' giving inspired Goldman Sachs to start Goldman Sachs Gives
- Google.org pledges 1%
- Singer wants corporate culture in which employees giving is a default practice

Singer argues that, esp. in America (cf. de Tocqueville), the developing world promotes viewing
everyone's actions through the lens of self-interest, yet many actions people take cannot be
explained solely by self-interest

Ch. 6. ...Which Charities Do It Best?

GiveWell:
- arose because of deficiencies of Charity Navigator, which was started in 2001
- Karnofsky and Hassenfeld founded GiveWell in 2007, based on $300000 in startup capital plus
their own assets
- charities could apply for $25000 grants in each of 5 humanitarian categories
- estimates that we can save a life from malaria for between $623 and $2367
- estimates that averting an HIV infection costs between $200 and $700
- Interplast can perform a life-changing surgery for between $500 and $1500

WHO:
- in 1967, smallpox killed 2 million people / year; 12 years later, it was (mostly) eradicated
- river blindness (infects 18 million Africans, causing 300000 blindings); WHO stopped(?)
600000 further cases
- 60000 deaths / year from measles in 1996; measles immunization reduced to 117 / year by 2000
- 3 million deaths / year from diarrhea or its complications, but simple rehydration therapy: pinch
of salt + fist of sugar + clean water, for a few cents

UNICEF says measles vaccine is < $1 / dose

~1 million deaths / year from malaria, but $10 mosquito net can save ~1 life

microfinance:
- Yunus ($27 / 42 women story) founded Grameen Bank in 1982 for microcredit - 7 million
customers, $6 billion in loans, 97% repayment rate
- GiveWell: at a South African microfinance organization, those receiving loans become 11%
more likely to be employed, 6% less likely to experience severe hunger, 7% less likely to be
classified impoverished (correlation determined from offering loans at random, so probably not a
prior effect)
- GiveWell chose Opportunity International for its microfinance grant in 2008

Jameel Poverty Action Lab conducts controlled trials to determine effectiveness of anti-poverty
programs, apparently validating:
- PROGRESA (program for education & health in Mexico)
- deworming initiatives in Kenya as improving children's learning (contested?)
- condom education as decreasing spread of AIDS
- lentil bag as incentive for Indian mothers to get children immunized

controlled trials testing anti-poverty measures can be prohibitively expensive, yet Singer argues
they are necessary in the long-term

Oxfam promotes unquantifiable ``capacity building'' (Ragpickers in Pune & legislation to protect
women from poverty in Mozambique, both by early 2000s)

David Morawetz, associated(?) with Oxfam Australia:

- $10000 to drill a well for a village of ~1000, so that drinking water is available for $10 / user
- Nepal projects:
- $3.33 for arsenic filter for water
- $20 for a cooking stove twice as efficient as a traditional one
- $22 for a toilet for a home in Kathmandu

Magda King and her husband started Namlo International to help Nepal:
- $25000 for a school in Nepal for ~200 children
- financial support to village women to learn traditional weaving in Kathmandu
- literacy programs
- safe water

Fred and Gabi Hollows set up Hollows Foundation for sight-restoring procedures, at a cost of
$50 / procedure

in India, 85% of men and 58% of women who lose their jobs due to blindness can regain
employment after sight correction

obstetric fistulas:
- hole between vagina and either bladder or rectum caused by pregnancy complication (e.g.,
when pelvis is underdeveloped), causing urine / feces to enter vagina and produce odor (and
infections?)

- Catherine and Reginald Hamlin established Addis Ababa Fistula Hospital in 1959(?) to treat
obstetric fistulas, with 93% cure rate as of ~2006
- fistula-repairing surgery in Africa costs between $100 and $400, according to UN Population
Fund and EngenderHealth, or ~$450 according to the Worldwide Fistula Fund
- Lewis Wall, of Worldwide Fistula Fund: 3 million women untreated, and 33000 more / year in
Africa alone

compare: 1995 Duke study of > 500 life-saving surgeries in the US suggested median cost of
life-saving surgery in the US was $2.2 million

American life is worth $7.22 million, according to EPA, or $5.8 million, according to Dept. of
Transportation

Ch. 7

William Easterly:
- The ``West'' spent $2.3 trillion on foreign aid over the last 50 years:
- roughly $50 / person / year, though at present, many more people than in the past: ~1 billion
people currently living
- yet, failed to deliver $0.12 medicines to prevent half of all malaria deaths
- failed to bring more $4 mosquito nets that it has
- ...
- Singer claims that, of the amount in Easterly's estimate, hundreds of millions ended up in the
bank accounts of dictators like Mobutu Sese Seko of Congo
- Easterly argues failures of Int'l Monetary Fund, UN, and/or USAID can be linked to:

- ``grandiose ambitions''
- top-down planning
- lack of accountability
- Singer says Easterly ignores work of NGO's like CARE, Oxfam, Save the Children, or World
Vision, so Easterly has not shown that raising aid money is entirely futile

top 10 recipients of US ``official development aid'': Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, Colombia, Egypt,
Ethiopia, DRC, Nigeria, Pakistan, Jordan*

* of this, 29.5% going to Iraq, and 6% to Afghanistan

Branko Milanovic: half of US foreign aid goes to ``lower-middle-income'' nations (scare-quotes

are Singer's),versus 1/5 to OECD-classified ``least developed'' countries

of total aid from OECD donating countries, 1/4 goes to the ``least developed'' category

we boost our own economies but at the cost of saving fewer lives:
- requiring condoms donated to Africa to be supplied by US manufacturers, not Asian ones
- sending our own subsidized food instead of supporting local agriculture: what Peter Matlon, of
the Rockefeller Foundation, calls ``the tail [of commerical interest] wagging the dog''
- US Gov't Accountability Office: food aid is ``inherently inefficient''

we do not even contribute so much as $60 / citizen / year, even though $60 is less than the price
of a ticket to a concerto / a dinner + movie + drinks + cab date

Martin Wolf argues in his book Why Globalization Works that reducing barriers to global trade
for poor nations would alleviate poverty vastly more than aid:
- nations that ``pulled themselves out of poverty'' the most in the last 50 years received relatively
little aid, whereas those receiving the most aid are still poor
- Singer suggests selection(?) bias, namely, we give more aid when a country has inherently
steeper challenges, like geography, corruption, regressive customs

``Dutch disease'':
- spike in Dutch natural gas led to influx of foreign money in exchange for gas / oil exports,
which led Dutch currency to rise, which led to Dutch exports becoming more expensive, which
led to Dutch manufacturing becoming less competitive
- Singer says excessive influx of foreign aid can cause the same(!)
- in very poor countries, like DRC or East Timor or Afghanistan, aid is so substantial relative to
national income that Dutch-disease effect can be substantial
- Raghuram Rajan-Arvind Subramanian: aid can significantly reduce growth of labor-intensive
manufacturing / exports
- Singer: perhaps more efficient use of aid will counteract the Dutch-disease effect, as suggested
by Rajan-Subramanian data from 90's
- Mozambique at end of civil war in 1992: ~40% of nat'l income was foreign aid, yet economic
growth per capita was high, averaging 5.5% / year
- Botswana after independence in 1966
- Taiwan in 1950's
- Uganda in 1990's
more significant than Dutch disease: US and European agricultural subsidies:
- undercut poor countries' exports, despite advantages of climate & cheap labor in the latter

- cotton in West Africa, produced for < $1.25 / day / family, against $3 billion / year in US
domestic cotton subsidies
- Daniel Sumner: if US cotton subsidy ended, then resulting rise in West African cotton-farmer
income would cover his children's healthcare
- Kym Anderson-Alan Winters: elimination of agricultural subsidies + 50% reduction in nonagricultural tariffs would result in $96 billion / year global economic gain, of which $30 billion
would go to developing world
- Singer concludes: we should eliminate subsidies on corn, cotton, and other farm products

why not focus on trade rather than aid?

- Singer: ``powerful'' political interests allied against open trade and elimination of subsidies
make their possibility vanishingly small
- Singer: 2008 Farm Bill in US was opposed by ``virtually every'' economist not employed by the
farm lobby, yet Congress pushed it through despite Bush's veto

Singer: aid should be a ``safety net'' to those who are not experiencing economic growth for
whatever reason

some developing countries do better than developed countries in certain ways: e.g., Cuba has
lower infant mortality and higher average longevity than the US

Gates to Easterly at the World Economic Forum in 2007: life has intrinsic value, independently
of economic growth

bad institutions undo good projects:

- rule of law necessary to protect us from violence and permit us to have confidence in our future

- Millenium Challenge Account, set up by Bush with bipartisan support, to reserve some US aid
to reward ``just'' governance throughout the world
- Paul Collier:
- argues that sustained aid can increase a country's chance to stay out of conflict once it has
ended, e.g., Mozambique
- $1 billion in aid / 4 years to a nation expected to give it $15 billion of ``economic benefits,''
plus gains to world of its effective governance

we still hope that aid can prove effective even without concurrent / prior change in institutions:
- Jeffrey Sachs, appointed director of UN Millennium Villages Project in 2002:
- ``poverty trap'' theory
- ``temporary assistance can put farmers on the path to long-term growth... Asia's Green
Revolution worked that way''
- Sachs created three-way support for Millenium Villages, begun in 2005, between the UN
Development Programme, the NGO Millenium Promise, and the Earth Institute at Columbia
University, to simultaneously distribute better crop seeds, set up schools, and improve local
clinics
- Millenium Villages allows communities to choose, in discussion with the Project, which
assistance will be most cost-effective for its particular situation
- Project requires that women be allowed a say in the discussions & decisions
- aid costs ~$110 / person / year, of which $10 / person / year is required to come from the
village itself; aid is sustained for at least five years, after which it can be withdrawn if everything
works well
- Singer: around 2010-2012, we should have some idea of whether Millenium Villages panned
out (???)

Malthusian population trap?

- in 1968, Paul Ehrlich predicted ``vast famines'' by 1985, which never occurred
- in 2008, wheat hit its highest price in 28 years, the price of corn doubled from 2006, and food
costs in developing countries rose 25% from 2007
- in US, even the poorest quintile spends only ~16% of income on food; in Nigeria, it is 73%; in
Vietnam, 65%; in Indonesia, 50%

Meat consumption:
- giving grains / soybeans to livestock farmed for meat drastically affects its availability to the
poorer global population
- in China, beef production from 1986 to 2006 increased from < 5 million to > 50 million; eggproducing hens from 655 million to 2.3 billion; ducks from 300 million to 2 billion; chickens
from 1.5 billion to 7.7 billion
- 756 million tons of grain were fed to animals in 2007 - distributed among 1.4 billion people,
this would be > 0.5 tons grain / person,2 years' worth of calories for each person

Population predictions for 2050:

- Nigeria (currently 144 million) will have 282 million
- DRC (now 63 million) will have 187 million
- Ethiopia (now 77 million) will have 146 million
- Singer:
- nonetheless, contra ecologists like Garrett Hardin, we should not ignore that reducing poverty
also reduces fertility
- education reduces fertility, especially women's education
- women with secondary education have, on average, 2 children; this is below the replacement
level

- if you want to help stop population growth, donate to Population Services International and/or
the Int'l Planned Parenthood Federation, and request that your gift be earmarked for family
planning

Kerala in India:
- despite its poverty, has higher literacy and gender equality than much of the country
- lower population growth than China without one-child policy(!), or even Sweden or Canada
(source: Sen, ``Population: Delusion and Reality,'' 1994, updated 2002)

Singer: ``some degree of uncertainty about the impact of aid does not eliminate our obligation to
give''

10 poorest countries as of ~2007: CAR, Sierra Leone, Eritrea, Niger, Malawi, Ethopia, Liberia,
Guinea-Bissau, Burundi, DRC

Ch. 8

[whereof we cannot speak, thereof we must be silent]

Ch. 9

Jeffrey Sachs's crude estimates for 2001:

- it would have taken $124 billion (/ year) to raise everyone above the poverty line
- the 22 OECD nations had combined gross annual income of $20 trillion

- the difference would have been 0.62% of said income

- someone making $50000 / year would owe ~$300
- compare to Americans spending a total of ~$116 billion on alcohol in 1999

nonetheless, Sachs's estimates are necessarily far too crude; a better yardstick would be the
Millennium Development Goals for 2015, set in 2000 by the UN, which include:
- reducing the proportion of people in extreme poverty by 50%
- reducing the proportion of people suffering (daily) hunger by 50%
- ensuring universal primary education
- ending sex disparity in education
- reducing the mortality rate for children under 5 years of age by 2/3
- reducing the maternal mortality rate by 75%
- halting and beginning to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS
- beginning to reduce the incidence of malaria and other major diseases
- reducing the proportion of people without sustainable drinking water by 50%

Sachs's UN task force estimated provisionally that the cost in 2006 would have been (only) $121
billion / year, rising to $189 billion / year by 2015; but given existing official promises, we
would have only needed to add on $48 billion in 2006, or $74 billion in 2015

Singer estimates in 2007 that there are roughly 855 million rich (by global standards) people in
the world: thus, each person only needs to give ~$200 / year to meet Sach's goal

Singer: we should not allow the fact that other people are not doing their ``fair share'' to affect
our personal decision to contribute to aid; people who do not contribute ``might as well be so
many rocks''

Singer: it's not that fairness is totally irrelevant: we have not argued that anyone needs to ``derail
[their] life'' to make up for what others failed to do

Singer: ``Perhaps in saving lives when others are not doing their share, I am obliged to go
beyond what strict fairness requires, but I can justifiably stop before I reach the point at which I
am sacrificing something nearly as important as the life I am saving''

a ``moderately demanding view'':

- Richard Miller: give to the point where, if you gave more, you would run ``significant'' risk of
worsening your life
- you're occasionally allowed to eat in good restaurants and buy good stereo equipment for the
``worthwhile'' and ``powerful'' (respectively) aesthetic experiences they can provide
- for Singer, the least demanding of the standards he describes in this chapter
- Garrett Cullity, author of The Moral Demands of Affluence: give to the point where further
contribution would undermine your own pursuit of ``intrinsically life-enhancing goods,'' which
for him include friendship, musical talent, and community involvement
- Brad Hooker, in Ideal Code, Real World: give to those in greater need even if ``personal
sacrifices'' would add up to a ``significant cost''
- Singer: the foregoing standards may be ``considerably more demanding'' than the fair-share
view, but none is so extreme as to a point of sacrificing things that could be almost as valuable as
a child's life

Singer: ``I'm all for pleasure---the more the better, other things being equal''; but be mindful that
27000 children die from ``avoidable causes'' each day

Singer: philanthropy for cultural activities is, ``in a world like this one,'' ``morally dubious''

Ch. 10

Singer's proposal:
- 5% of income / year for those who are ``financially comfortable''
- much more if you are very rich

Singer: it would, to quote the Existentialists, be ``lacking in authenticity'' to appeal to human

nature as a reason for not doing what is right, and what nothing prevents me from doing, except
my choice not to do it

[various discussions of how we should assign praise or blame, or judge various famous people,
which is perhaps important as part of the sociological component of giving culture, but not
immediately apparently relevant to me]

the public standard:

- James Hong, who became a millionaire at 32 from founding Hot or Not?, pledged to give 10%
of everything earned over $100000, setting up a website called 10over100 (???) to publicize his
pledge and persuade others to follow suit: as of Singer's checking at the time of writing his book,
3967 people had pledged
- Israel Shenker, CEO of ISS Development, matches every discretionary purchase with a
comparable charitable donation
- Fair Share Int'l advocates the 5.10.5.10 formula:

- 5% of your gross annual income to aid

- reducing your environmentally harmful consumption by 10% / year, until you cannot go further
- 5% of your time to help your community
- taking democratic political action 10 times / year

Singer's proposal for the rich and the super-rich, in 2006:

- member of top 0.01% = annual income above $10.7 million, average being $29.6 million: give
away 1/3 without reduction in standard of living
- member of 99.9th to 99.99th percentile range = annual above $1.9 million, average $3.7
million: give away 1/4
- member of 99.4% to 99.9% range = annual above $600000, average $955000: give away 1/5
- member of 99.0% to 99.5% range = annual above $383000, average $465000: give away 15%
- member of 95% to 99% range = annual above $148000, average $210000: give away 10%, the
tithe
- member of 90% to 95% range = annual above $105000, average $122000: give away 5%

revisions in thinking:
- Singer admits that the rich do have major expenses even without giving, e.g., paying off student
loans, providing money for their children's education, paying a mortgage
- hence, the above proposal revises a similar proposal made in the NYT, where he asked for >
10% from everyone in the top 90th percentile
- to fine-tune, we must avoid creating penalties for moving up an income bracket: do this
analogously to progressive taxation: cf. his table toward the end of Ch. 10
- even after the progressive-donation revision, Singer expects that his proposal, successfully
executed, would raise $471 billion / year, merely from the top 10% of American families

- Bill Clinton, in Giving, discusses Singer's proposal from the NYT and why it is unrealistic:
- fears of the wealthy that the money will be wasted
- desire to build estate before entering philanthropy
- cost of living affects discretionary spending
- many wealthy people are already giving to other charitable causes besides foreign aid
- Clinton suggests his own, more modest proposal (e.g., top 1% give 5% of income)

wealth people in other nations, including the developing nations themselves, also share moral
burden of relieving poverty:
- of 855 million ``rich'' people, 17% lived in countries with average income below that of
Portugal as of 2007; 11%, in countries with income below that of Brazil; and these figures are
growing over time
- Singer predicts that if we extend his proposal globally, with the US proportionally contributing
1/3, then we would be providing $1.5 trillion / year for development aid - 8 times Sach's estimate
for the Millennium Development Goals for 2015, or 20 times the difference between those goals
and pre-existing promises
- conclusion: the Millennium Development Goals are absurdly modest

Singer's Seven-Point Plan:

1. Visit www.thelifeyoucansave.com and make the pledge
2. do research to determine to which organizations you will donate
3. using your last tax return, work out how much Singer's proposal asks you to give, and give it
annually
4. spread the word (without being preachy, because ``you're probably no saint, either'')

5. if you're employed by a corporation or institution, ask it to consider setting up a scheme to

implement a giving culture among employees, cf. Ch. 5
6. contact your political representatives to inform them
7. feel good about your contribution to the solution to world poverty

Singer's penultimate personal anecdote suggests: people really want to do something of ``real
value'' with their money, but don't know how, and get easily offended by bald requests for
money; rather, ask them to work with you, and show through your actions that giving can be
constructive and valuable

``Most of us prefer harmony to discord, whether between ourselves and others or within our own
minds. That inner harmony is threatened by any glaring discrepancy between the way you live
and the way you think you ought to live... I recommend that instead of worry about how much
you would have to do in order to live a fully ethical life, you do something that is significantly
more than you have been doing so far. Then see how that feels. You may find it more rewarding
than you imagined possible.''