New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

On the Impact of Demand Response: Load

Shedding, Energy Conservation and Further
Implications to Load Forecasting
Dr. Tao Hong, SAS
Dr. Pu Wang, SAS

Agenda

Background
Load Shedding
Energy Conservation
Further Implications to Load Forecasting
Summary

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Background A Long Story

Poor Load
Forecasts

Demand
Response

Good
Load
Forecasts

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

3
Questions

Background DR Activities
From 2005 to 2007
1297 DR hours
290 periods
252 days

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Background Three Questions

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Did we really cut the peak?

Did these activities affect our revenue?
Did these activities impact our load forecasting processes?

Load Shedding Analysis

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Assumption
Bounce-back effect
One hour after DR
Data
Regular
DR
PostDR
Model
Nave Multiple Linear Regression Model
E(Load) = 0 + 1*Trend + 2*Day*Hour + 3*Month + 4*Month*T + 5*Month*T2
+ 6*Month*T3 + 7*Hour*T + 8*Hour*T2 + 9*Hour*T3

Load Shedding Ideal Case

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Load Shedding Whats Wrong?

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Load Shedding Possible Reasons

No bounce-back effect
Wrong assumption
Industrial customer
Inaccurate model
Bad data

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Energy Conservation
In 3 years (2005-2007)
4.86GWh saved during DR hours
3.32GWh picked up after DR hours
1.54GWh net saving in 3 years
0.51GWh per year
0.016% of annual consumption

Saved ONE hour of electricity per year!

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Further Impact to Load Forecasting

Accuracy

Process
Label DR hours
Develop two forecasts to quantify DR impacts

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Summary

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

For this particular (NOT in general) utility, based on a Nave

MLR model:
Peaks were effectively cut
Not hurting revenue
Forecast can be improved by excluding the special hours
However
DR programs need to be differentiate
Data quality affects the analysis
Model needs to be further improved to draw solid
conclusion

Summary

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

For this particular utility, based on a Nave MLR model:

Peaks were effectively cut
Not hurting revenue
Forecast can be improved by excluding the special hours
In general, utilities need to
Enhance data quality, label different DR programs
Develop two forecasts to quantify DR impact
Develop very accurate models to draw solid conclusions

New Energy Horizons

Opportunities and Challenges

Dr. Tao Hong, SAS Institute, USA

Tao.Hong@sas.com