Iran and Nuclear Disarmament

A message from NGOCDPS President Bruce Knotts

Dear Friends:
An historic agreement has taken place in UNbrokered negotiations that took four years to
accomplish, and its goal is to stop the spread of
nuclear weapons to Iran.
All five permanent members of the UN Security
Councilplus Germany and Irannegotiated the
deal. Not an easy task to get that group to agree
on anything. It was then ratified by all 17 members
of the UN Security Council, with all non-permanent
members representing every region of the global
also voting in favor. So the deal is done.
Problems that remain revolve around the religious hierarchy of Iran and the U.S.
Congress. Should either manage to scuttle the agreement, the deal would stand as
negotiated and ratified by the UN Security Council, and any party not living up to
the agreement would be in violation of the councils unanimous resolution. So the
pressure is on both the Iranian religious leaders and Congress to back up their
respective countrys negotiation teams.
The other unnamed but high profile player is Israel and its prime minister.
So here are the two sides as I see them:
Case For the Deal: It will keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapon for at least
15 years and probably longer. Should Iran not live up to its obligations, there is a
snap back provision that would immediately re-impose UN sanctions. Alternatively,
barring military action, Iran would be allowed to continue its program to build
nuclear weapons, which it might be able to accomplish within two months.
Case Against the Deal: Removing sanctions will allow Iran to quickly realize
economic gains that would allow it to support terrorism and military adventures and
return to its production of nuclear weapons later with a stronger economy. The
basic flaw in this argument is that with the deal ratified by the UN, the sanctions will
be lifted only if Iran complies. The EU and other nations are eager to tap into
Iranian markets, so it seems that a return to the tough sanction regime is unlikely. In
order to keep Iran economically weakeven if it compliesseems to, again, call for
military action.
For good or bad, the deal seems to have failsafe mechanisms that require Iran to
accept it or face war. So acceptance will probably happen. Will it work? My guess

is that it can if the international community remains vigilant, united and strong. If we
begin to lose interest and let our attention wander, then there will be an opportunity
to cheat. We have reason to be hopeful the deal will work, but that hope should not
lull us into complacency.
The other hoped for benefit from the deal with Iran is that we could do a similar deal
with North Korea. Even though the DPRK has already indicated that its not
interested as long as the U.S. is hostile to it, there is a window of opportunity there
as well. What would end hostilities? How about a peace treaty to end the Korean
War? If such a treaty could be negotiated to end the Korean War and recognize the
borders of both South and North Korea, could the abolition of nuclear weapons in
the Korean peninsula be part of the deal?
I wish I had a crystal ball that could predict the future and tell us how to plot the
right course to peace. Like it or not, we have a deal with Iran and we will probably
have to do our best to make it work. We might even be able to do similar deals as
steps to our cherished goal of abolishing nuclear weapons everywhere forever.
In peace,
Bruce Knotts
NGO Committee on Disarmament, Peace and Security