Statistics Assignment 3

Pronto Pizza
GROUP 8

Team Members
Pia Bakshi
Shruti Shukla
Sri Lakshmi Anumolu
Vikas Vimal

Introduction
Pronto Pizza is a startup company which was established by Antonio Scapelli and his
wife in Vinemont about 30 years ago. The restaurants business is basically based on its
pizza delivery service. Recently, a new fast food pizza delivery chain started competing
with Pronto with its 30 minutes guaranteed service or free pizza delivery scheme. Tony,
Mr. Antonios son now wants to deliver Pronto pizza in 29 minutes or less to eliminate
competition. His scheme wants to limit the percentage of free pizza under guarantee to
about 5% of all the deliveries.
The delivery time for Pronto spanned from 4 p.m. to 12 midnight. The major issues to be
monitored in formulating a new delivery strategy were preparation time for pizzas,
waiting time to get a delivery driver and travel time to deliver the pizza. To devise a plan
for efficient delivery with a target of 29 minutes, Tony did a small random sampling
experiment. He collected the data to check how the issues stated above effect Prontos
delivery, for a month and figured if Pronto could meet the 29 minute requirement or not.
After a through initial analysis, Tony concluded that currently Pronto cannot promote
the 29 minute delivery system to its customers. Although, increasing the number of
delivery boys on Friday and Saturday would decrease the variability in the wait time
hence help in attaining the 29 minute cut off. As a result, after altering the waiting
period, Tony again performs the sampling of the pizza delivery. This time he samples
every 10th pizza and provides discounts to its customers while figuring the strategy to
score the 29 minute delivery cut off.

Objectives
1) Calculate the number of deliveries going beyond the break-even point of 5%
2) Effect of preparation time, waiting time and travel time on the delivery service
3) Effect of day and hour of delivery
4) If feasible device a strategy to score the 29 minutes delivery time

Executive Summary
We attempted to resolve the issue at hand on two basic premisesFirst Premise- From the initial data
Second premise- From the second set of revisited data, which is collected after
implementing the suggestions given after analysing the first data set
To ensure 29 minutes delivery time, as expressed by the Owner of Pizza Pronto, it is
imperative that the average time for delivery is less than or equal to 25 as the breakeven
point is 5%. The distinction between the preparation time and the time for arrival of
delivery boy (wait time), preparation time and Travel time are the major determining
factors of our recommendations.

First Premise:
The mean obtained from the initial data was 25.3 which is basically the average time
taken to deliver the pizza. However, considering 95% confidence interval, the value of 25
minutes is contained in the interval (24.82, 25.82). If we had just assumed this
observation as our premise, we would have gone ahead with the 29 minutes delivery
target. However, the variance in the wait time was very high which suggests that the
mean obtained earlier is not true in every case. Also, in the sample given, percentage of
late deliveries is 13.75% which is far greater than the 5% break even point. Considering
the 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of free pizzas due to late deliveries,
does not contain the 5% target
Due to inadequacy of available data, we could not ascertain the day with the highest
number of deliveries and the hour of the day with highest number of deliveries. Looking
at the data we saw that the highest percentage of free deliveries were on Friday and
Saturday (23% and 30% of the total deliveries). We learnt through examination that on
reducing the preparation time by 3.72 minutes, there was a decrease in the number of
free deliveries by nearly 40%. Also as we see that the increase in Total time for delivery is
varying proportionally to Wait time. Therefore Tony should employ more people for
Delivery especially on Friday and Saturday, the two days of week when the wait time is
high

Thus, we recommend

An increase in the number of delivery boys on Fri and Saturday in specific

Optimization of machinery used for making Pizza or increase the number of cooks to
reduce the preperation time by 5 minutes

Collect data at regular intervals, as it will give information on the Delivery Density at any
particular hour of the day and also reduce the sampling bias
The book recommendations are similar with few exceptions:

Employ two extra employees to deliver on Fri & Sat, to decrease the wait time

Collect data for every 10th Delivery

Second Premise:
As per the recommendations, Tony appointed two additional delivery boys on Friday and
Saturday. Analyzing the second set of data, we estimated the mean time of deliveries and
number of free deliveries on a daily and hourly basis. Correlating the wait time with the
number of free deliveries and delivery time, we learnt that they were deeply related.
Thus, to decrease the number of free deliveries it is imperative to decrease the variation
in the wait time. Also, the correlation between travel time and sales was also significant.
However, the speed is independent of the number of free deliveries. We observed that
1. The change in Total time of delivery is highly dependent on wait time followed by the
Travel time
2. We cannot compare both the data sets and come to conclusion that, the wait time has
not decreased on Saturday despite employing two employees, as the initial data set is
biased
3. On Mondays, the reason for Late delivery happens to be, low travel speed and high
preperation time
4. On Friday and Saturday, the hours for which the Late Delivery is high, The Travel
distance is very high

Recommendations:
a.) The restaurant hires two more delivery boys for Friday and Saturday, bringing the total
of recently employed delivery boys to 4 or greater based on the requirement
b.) Optimize the preperation time. By reducing the Preperation time by 4.57 minutes, we
can reduce the Late deliveries by 70%
c.) Do not give Free Delivery on Late Delivery on Friday and Saturday if the distance if
greater than 4kms and instead give a fixed discount within the limit of cost of break even
Post initiating the recommended changes, it is advised that the restaurant management
repeat the examination exercise.

Procedure
Observation for Pronto Initial Data:
We plot the Histogram of Total time to check for normality:

Time taken for delivery vs frequency

70
60

Frequncy

50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Time taken to deliver Pizza

Time taken for delivery vs frequency

Graph for time taken for deliver vs. frequency for the initial data. The graph follows
a normal distribution with a positive skew.

Assuming that the distribution is close to Normal, we have the summary statistics for
the sample as:
N

Mean
240

Std Dev
25.32

Std Dev of sample Dist

3.92

95% CI

0.25 (24.82, 25.82)

Test and Confidence Interval of Event: Late

Day

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Overall

12

33

32

32

32

32

40

40

32

240

0.06

0.16

0.03

0.00

0.23

0.30

0.13

0.14

p>0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

Standard error

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.04

0.01

0.32

2.76

-0.49

-1.30

5.08

7.25

1.95

6.22

0.3728

0.0029

0.3132

0.0972

0.0000

0.0000

0.0258

0.0000

sample p'
Test p=0.05 vs

P value

From the above graph we can infer that the number of free deliveries is
i highest for the
days Friday and Saturday.. Also from the previous table, we see that p test <0.05 holds
for Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. But we see that Tue and
d Sun and close to the
5% break even.

Therefore, combining all the days other than Friday and Saturday:
Non Fri &
Sat

Fri & Sat

12

21

160

80

0.075

0.2625

p>0.05

0.05

0.05

Standard error

0.02

0.02

1.45

8.72

P value

0.07

0.00

sample p'
Test p=0.05 vs

In the above graph we can see a compiled representation of number of free deliveries for
the two high risks days (Friday and Saturday) w.r.t. other days of the week.
week From the
table above we can say that, days other than Fri & Sat when put together are well within
with
the breakeven point

Comparing the Data by Day of the week:

Day

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Overall

Mean
Time
Prep Time

14.71 14.82 14.90 15.19 14.92 15.05 15.07

14.95

Std Dev

1.00

1.20

0.94

0.90

0.93

1.24

1.11

1.05

Variance

0.99

1.45

0.89

0.81

0.86

1.53

1.24

1.11

Time

2.12

1.99

1.46

1.02

3.66

4.68

1.93

2.53

Std Dev

2.77

2.98

1.68

1.03

3.24

4.79

2.68

3.26

Variance

7.67

8.86

2.83

1.07 10.52 22.98

7.18

10.60

Mean
Wait Time

Mean
Travel

Time

7.06

8.25

8.09

7.72

7.96

8.08

7.64

7.84

Time

Std Dev

2.08

1.67

1.83

1.73

1.99

1.88

1.95

1.90

Variance

4.32

2.80

3.34

3.00

3.96

3.52

3.82

3.59

23.89 25.05 24.45 23.93 26.54 27.82 24.64

25.32

Mean
Time
Total Time

Std Dev
Variance

3.40

3.13

2.56

2.26

3.76

5.65

3.52

3.92

11.54

9.77

6.54

5.09 14.17 31.96 12.39

15.40

The above table gives the summary statistics of the sample data set for each day of the
week. Comparing the data with the overall data, we have identified (marked in red) the
Days of the week with higher average Time of Delivery or High variance of Time of Deliver

Observation for Pronto Revisited Data:

We plot the Histogram of Total time to check for normality:

Graph for time taken for deliver vs. frequency for the revisited data. The data follows a
positive skewed normal distribution.

Assuming that the distribution is close to Normal, we have the summary

summar statistics for
the sample as:
N

Mean

Std Dev

Std Dev of sample Dist

95% CI
(25.399,

240

25.899

4.081

0.25 26.399)

In the above two graphs we can observe the number and percentage of free deliveries on
each day after the recommendations we enforced. We can conclude that the percentage
10

of free deliveries is highest on Friday

Friday,with 16% and Saturday,, with 30% as compared to
other days of the week.
Non Fri & Sat Fri & Sat
X
7
38
N
155
169
sample p'
0.05
0.22
Test p=0.05 vs p>0.05
0.05
0.05
Standard error
0.02
0.02
Z
-0.28
10.43
P value
0.391
0.000

After looking at the graph, we compare the

statistical values for Non Fri and Sat and Fri
and Sat. We observe that the
t late deliveries
is less than 5% for rest of week other than Fri
and Sat

In the above two graphs we can observe the compiled total number of free deliveries on
Friday and Saturday after the recommendations we enforced. We can conclude that the
percentage of free deliveries is highest on Friday and Saturday, whereas, days other than
Fri & Sat when put together are well within the breakeven point.

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Tables on Analysis
Comparing the data by hours in a day

Prep Time

Wait Time

Travel Time

Total Time

Hour
Mean
Standard Dev
Variance
Mean
Standard Dev
Variance
Mean
Standard Dev
Variance
Mean
Standard Dev
Variance

4
14.97
1.05
1.10
2.78
3.37
11.39
7.26
1.53
2.34
25.01
3.34
11.18

5
15.07
0.95
0.90
2.73
3.11
9.64
7.40
2.20
4.82
25.20
3.64
13.28

6
15.36
1.17
1.38
1.98
2.14
4.57
8.77
2.07
4.27
26.11
2.64
6.98

7
14.93
0.92
0.85
4.22
3.26
10.64
7.70
1.45
2.11
26.85
4.21
17.73

8
15.54
0.92
0.84
2.86
5.74
32.96
7.62
1.54
2.37
26.03
6.41
41.05

9
15.05
1.29
1.66
2.71
3.60
12.93
7.77
1.55
2.39
25.53
4.51
20.36

10
14.84
0.99
0.97
1.69
1.84
3.40
8.46
1.72
2.95
24.98
2.55
6.51

11 Overall
14.84
15.11
1.12
1.11
1.26
1.22
4.17
2.71
3.51
3.44
12.30
11.86
8.57
8.08
1.68
1.80
2.82
3.24
27.59
25.90
4.56
4.08
20.78
16.65

In the above table we compare the hourly statistics of different events that effect the
delivery time. We observe that total time for Delivery is high at 5, 6 ,7 and 11th hour
driven strongly by wait time for 7,8 and 11 hr and travel time for 6th hour. These values
are highlighted with red. Another observation is that Variance of Total Delivery time is
very high for 7, 8, 9, 11 hr driven by variance in wait time.
Hence, we can conclude that Prontos key problem area lies between 6 p.m. to 7 p.m.
and 8 p.m. to 11 p.m. especially of Friday and Saturday. Thus, we recommended to hire
two more delivery boys on these two days.

12

Comparing the data by days in a week

Prep Time

Wait Time

Travel Time

Total Time

Day
Mean Time
Std Dev
Variance
Mean Time
Std Dev
Variance
Mean Time
Std Dev
Variance
Mean Time
Std Dev
Variance

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thur
Fri
Sat
Sun
Overall
15.20
15.22
15.43
14.65
14.69
14.76
15.10
1.68
1.28
0.99
1.15
0.82
1.20
1.08
2.81
1.63
0.98
1.33
0.67
1.44
1.16
4.51
1.84
1.61
0.82
2.82
4.90
1.52
3.97
2.79
1.62
0.58
2.37
5.22
1.76
15.73
7.78
2.64
0.33
5.60
27.27
3.09
7.55
8.02
8.21
7.78
8.41
8.13
7.68
2.36
1.57
1.75
1.58
1.85
1.86
1.83
5.57
2.45
3.05
2.50
3.43
3.45
3.36
26.70
24.54
24.58
23.70
26.43
28.24
24.63
4.15
2.63
2.90
2.07
3.14
5.84
2.70
17.24
6.93
8.44
4.30
9.84
34.12
7.28

15.11
1.11
1.22
2.71
3.44
11.86
8.08
1.80
3.24
25.90
4.08
16.65

In the above table we compare the daily statistics of different events that effect the
delivery time. We observe that the total time for delivery is high on Mon, Fri and Sat
driven by Wait time. But on Friday, Travel time is also an issue to a large extent. These
values are highlighted in red. Variance of total time for delivery is also very high on
Saturday, Mon and Friday compared to other days of the week which is driven by
variance in Wait time.
Thus, based on this data we recommended not to give Free Delivery on Late Delivery on
Friday and Saturday if the distance if greater than 4 kms and instead give a fixed
discount within the limit of cost of break-even point.

13