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Boundary-Layer Meteorology (2005) 117: 447478

DOI 10.1007/s10546-005-2772-5

 Springer 2005

FORMATION, EVOLUTION, AND DISSIPATION


OF COASTAL SEA FOG
DARKO KORACIN1,5,*, JOOST A. BUSINGER2, CLIVE E. DORMAN3
and JOHN M. LEWIS1,4
1

Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, U.S.A.; 2University of Washington, Seattle,


Washington, U.S.A.; 3Scripps Institution of Oceanography and San Diego State University, San
Diego, California, U.S.A.; 4National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Severe Storms
Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma, U.S.A.; 5Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway,
Reno, Nevada 89512, U.S.A.

(Received in nal form 3 February 2005)

Abstract. Evolution of sea fog has been investigated using three-dimensional Mesoscale
Model 5 (MM5) simulations. The study focused on widespread fog-cloud layers advected
along the California coastal waters during 1416 April 1999. According to analysis of the
simulated trajectories, the intensity of air mass modication during this advection signicantly
depended on whether there were clouds along the trajectories and whether the modication
took place over the land or ocean. The air mass, with its trajectory endpoint in the area where
the fog was observed and simulated, gradually cooled despite the gradual increase in
sea-surface temperature along the trajectory. Modelling results identied cloud-top cooling as
a major determinant of marine-layer cooling and turbulence generation along the trajectories.
Scale analysis showed that the radiative cooling term in the thermodynamic equation overpowered surface sensible and latent heat uxes, and entrainment terms in cases of the transformation of marine clouds along the trajectories. Transformation of air masses along the
trajectories without clouds and associated cloud-top cooling led to fog-free conditions at the
endpoints of the trajectories over the ocean. The nal impact on cloud-fog transition was
determined by the interaction of synoptic and boundary-layer processes. Dissipation of sea fog
was a consequence of a complex interplay between advection, synoptic evolution, and
development of local circulations. Movement of the high-pressure system over land induced
weakening of the along-shore advection and synoptic-pressure gradients, and allowed development of oshore ows that facilitated fog dissipation.
Keywords: Lagrangian framework, Mesoscale model 5 (MM5), Mesoscale simulations, Oshore fog, Radiative cooling, U.S. West Coast.

1. Introduction
Understanding the formation and evolution of sea fog remains a research
challenge primarily due to the lack of surface and upper-air observations over
the ocean. Satellite data are emerging as a valuable tool providing signicant
*E-mail: Darko.Koracin@dri.edu

448

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

weather information over the oceans; however, there is still ambiguity and
uncertainty in characterizing three-dimensional cloudiness and fog using
satellite data. Due to the existence of routine land-based observations, fog
over land has received considerably more attention than fog at sea.
We focus on a sea-fog event along the U.S. West Coast where there is
signicant complexity in the ocean structure, in the marine atmospheric
boundary layer, and in coastal topography. As noted by Filonczuk et al.
(1995), fog along the West Coast occurs over a wide range of observed wind
and temperature conditions, and the frequency of fog events is spatially and
temporally variable along the coast. Although there is a range of conditions
conducive to fog formation, it appears that there is no set of most favourable
conditions that uniquely dene the occurrence and maintenance of sea fog.
As discussed in Leipper (1994), Leipper and Koracin (1998), and Lewis et al.
(2004), forecasting sea fog along the California coast is a very challenging
task due to the complex topography, delicate interplay of physical processes,
and the scarcity of oshore observations. Nevertheless, there have been
important contributions to the study of sea fog o the West Coast, notably
the early work of Byers (1930), Anderson (1931), and Petterssen (1936, 1938).
In the period following World War II, Leipper (1948) and the Cornell
Aeronautical Laboratory (CALSPAN) team (Mack et al., 1974; Pilie et al.,
1979) set the stage for numerical experiments that used one-dimensional
models with turbulence parameterization and treatment of radiative heat
transfer (e.g., see Oliver et al., 1978).
In the spirit of the early work of G.I. Taylor (Taylor, 1917) and Oliver
et al. (1978), Koracin et al. (2001) (hereafter K2001) conducted a synthesized
modelling and observational study of sea fog that accounted for the path
history of surface air and the turbulence-radiative processes in the marine
layer. They developed a conceptual model of the formation and evolution of
sea fog. Koracin et al. (2001) used a one-dimensional model with turbulence
closure and radiative parameterization similar to the model used by Oliver
et al. (1978); however, in contrast to Oliver et al., they emulated evolution of
the air parcel in a Lagrangian frame of reference along multi-day trajectories
over varying sea-surface temperatures and a strong marine inversion. In the
case study (April 1999) that was central to the K2001 investigation, sea fog
formed as a result of stratus lowering along multi-day, over-water trajectories. The modelling results were consistent with the observed time of fog
onset and the location of fog along the coast as well as at sea, and identied
cloud-top radiative cooling as the primary mechanism for fog formation.
Radiative cooling at the top of the marine layer over-compensated for
warming at the surface in the presence of a sea surface that was several
Kelvin (K) warmer than the adjoining surface air. Net cooling led to condensation and fog. Although one-dimensional models can emulate specic
advection associated with a Lagrangian path, they inherently cannot account

COASTAL SEA FOG

449

for variability in the three-dimensional structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and advective processes.
Another approach to investigating air parcel modication within a
Lagrangian or quasi-Lagrangian framework was performed by Stevens et al.
(2003a, b) using aircraft observations o southern California. They followed
cloud parcels by means of circular aircraft patterns and focused on the roles
of cloud-top radiative cooling, entrainment, and drizzle on the evolution of
nocturnal marine stratocumulus. Stevens et al. (2003a, b) analysed the aircraft data and concluded that the observed temperature and moisture discontinuities for a strong marine inversion over the U.S. West Coast denitely
would lead to signicant entrainment and cloud drying based on cloud-top
entrainment instability (Deardor, 1980; Randall, 1980). In contrast, the
observations indicated persistent cloud layers that were even further developed during the time when entrainment instability suggested cloud dissipation. In addition, the consequent microphysical evolution led to signicant
formation of observed drizzle ux. Stevens et al. (2003a) indicated that the
role of radiative processes in the maintenance and growth of clouds should be
investigated further.
In this study, we seek to complement previous studies by examining
simulated air parcel trajectories and investigating the roles and interplay of
advection, cloud-top radiation, surface uxes, and entrainment on the evolution of the cloudy marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). To better
understand air transformation along Lagrangian trajectories, we performed
three-dimensional numerical simulations using Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5)
(Grell et al., 1994). To support the three-dimensional modelling, we relied on
a recent observational study that explored the formation, maintenance, and
dissipation of sea fog for this particular case (Lewis et al., 2003). The main
objective of our study is to develop a qualitative and quantitative understanding of the modication determinants relevant to the eventual formation
of sea fog. Under certain conditions characterized by advection, strength of
the marine inversion, and subsidence, modication of the cloudy marine
layer can lead to sea-fog formation. The inuence of land-driven circulation
on sea-fog dissipation is analysed and elaborated on, and implications of the
study ndings on the operational forecasting of sea fog are discussed in the
concluding remarks and epilogue.
2. Oshore Cloudiness and Fog Along the California Coast During 1415
April 1999
Extensive cloud and fog layers occurred along the California coast during
1415 April 1999 in response to a synoptic disturbance that moved on to the
West Coast on 11 April (K2001; Lewis et al., 2003). Prior to fog formation, a

450

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

Figure 1. Composite mean (0000 and 1200 UTC) sea-level pressure (hPa) for 13 April (a)
and 16 April (b) 1999. Obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Diagnostic Center using National Centers for Environmental Prediction and
National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis.

high pressure system over the north-eastern Pacic and a low pressure system
over Arizona and California set up intense north-westerly and northerly
ows along the West Coast that are characteristic of warm season dynamics
in this region (Figure la). The high pressure system and associated subsidence
(reaching 0.05 m s)1) maintained a strong marine inversion of 10 K or more
(Lewis et al., 2003). As the high pressure system moved inland (Figure lb),

COASTAL SEA FOG

451

the pressure gradient weakened along the coast and induced oshore ows in
the coastal zone. According to our analysis, this synoptic evolution had a
signicant impact on the evolution of oshore cloudiness and fog. The initial
intense northerly and north-westerly ows were favourable to the cooling of
cloudy air along over-water trajectories. Inland displacement of the high
pressure system reduced horizontal pressure gradients and winds, leading to
conditions favourable to the formation of sea fog. Gradual development of
oshore ows at the end of the fog event, however, induced drying of the
marine layer near the coast at night as well as drying and warming of this
layer during daytime hours. This is further explained in the following sections.
3. Numerical Model
Mesoscale Model 5 is used worldwide and was developed jointly by
Pennsylvania State University and the National Center for Atmospheric
Research in Boulder, Colorado. Details of the model structure are described
in Grell et al. (1994). Mesoscale Model 5 has been used in a variety of
research and application studies focused on atmospheric dynamics and
cloudiness along the California coast (Koracin and Dorman, 2001), structure
and evolution of wind stress and wind-stress curl impacting ocean dynamics
(Koracin et al., 2004), and as a driver for an ocean model (e.g., Powers and
Stoelinga, 1999; Beg-Paklar et al., 2001), among others. To account for
synoptic processes and also to resolve characteristics of mesoscale processes,
coarse and nested grids were set up to cover a large portion of the U.S. West
Coast from southern Oregon to the Los Angeles region (Figure 2). The
coarse grid was centred at 37.5 N, 122.5 W and consisted of 177 207 43
points with a horizontal resolution of 6 km. The nested grid (consisting of
271 385 43 points with a horizontal resolution of 2 km) extended from
the northern California coast to Point Conception (34.4 N, 120.5 W) where
the coastline sharply turns to the east. Most of the clouds and fog were
observed in this area.
Table I shows the models vertical grid structure with average heights
converted from 43 full-sigma levels (integer values). Horizontal wind components and thermodynamic variables are computed on half-sigma levels,
while vertical velocity is computed on full-sigma levels (midpoint values). In
order to provide high vertical resolution within the MABL, seventeen vertical
levels are provided in the lowest kilometre. Topography input was extracted
from the 30-resolution global terrain and land use les. The main physics
options included warm-rain microphysics; the Grell cumulus parameterization; the Gayno-Seaman second-moment, turbulence parameterization with
the prognostic turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) equation (Shafran et al.,

452

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

Figure 2. Setup of MM5 modelling domains. The outer domain (D01) consists of 177
207 35 grid points with horizontal resolution of 6 km, and the inner domain (DO2) has
271 385 35 grid points with horizontal resolution of 2 km.

2000); a cloud-radiation algorithm; and a multi-layer soil temperature model.


First guess elds and lateral boundary conditions for the coarse grid for every
12 h were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP) Global Data Assimilation System archive. Synoptic information
included virtual temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind components, and relative humidity on a global grid (with a horizontal resolution of
2.5 in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions). These rst-guess elds
were horizontally interpolated onto the model grid by a two-dimensional, 16point overlapping parabolic t. In the second step of the preprocessing the
rst guess elds were rened using observations. Similarly, the rst-guess seasurface temperature (SST) eld was extracted from the U.S. Navys daily
values (with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions), updated with buoy and coastal station data, and interpolated onto the model grid using a bilinear interpolation method. Simulations
were performed for the period from 12 April 1999 at 0000 UTC to 17 April
1999 at 0000 UTC, corresponding to the widespread cloud and fog event that
was described by K2001 and Lewis et al. (2003). Time steps on the coarse and
nested grids were 18 and 6 s, respectively.

453

COASTAL SEA FOG

TABLE I
Average heights (m) of full-sigma and half-sigma vertical levels of MM5 grids.

Level

Full-sigma level
height (m)

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

18
36
54
82
118
155
191
247
321
396
472
548
625
702
780
938
1180
1429
1701
1995
2294
2607
2931
3262
3610
3973
4344
4738
5149
5574
6028
6506
7005
7543
8118
8726
9393
10121
10911
11805
12820
13983

Half-sigma level
height (m)

9
27
45
68
100
136
173
219
284
359
434
510
586
664
741
859
1059
1305
1565
1848
2144
2450
2769
3097
3436
3792
4158
4541
4944
5362
5801
6267
6756
7274
7831
8422
9060
9757
10516
11358
12313
13402

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

454

3.1. MODEL

EVALUATION

3.1.1. Comparison with Buoy and Coastal Station Data


Observations from eight buoys and two coastal land stations were used for
model evaluation. Table II shows buoy positions and summary statistics of
the comparison between the model and observations for a ve-day period
(1217 April 1999). Standard statistical parameters included the bias or mean
error (ME), the mean absolute error (MAE), the population root-meansquare error (RMSE), and the root-mean-square vector error (RMSVE).
These parameters have been commonly used (Koracin et al., 2004) and also
are dened in Koracin and Dorman (2001). The correlation coecient for
wind speed ranged from 0.43 to 0.75, which is similar to Koracin and Dormans (2001) results for the comparison between model results and buoy data
along the California coast for all of June 1996. According to standard
deviations from the model results and measurements, the model shows
temporal variability similar to observations. The bias expressed by the ME is
relatively small and still should be reduced due to the dierence in height
between the model grid points and elevation of the buoy sensors. Some of the
dierences are likely due to dierences in sampling. (i.e., buoy data are an
8-min average at every hour, while the model results represent grid- and short
time-averaged values during the last timestep at each hour).
As will be shown in the next sections, accurate representation of wind
direction by the model is crucial to determining the origin and fate of airmass back-trajectories. Consequently, special consideration is given to the
models ability to successfully reproduce wind direction. Figure 3 shows the
time series of modelled and observed wind direction at the Point Arena and
San Francisco coastal land stations that are central to our analysis elaborated
on in the next section. Wind speeds at the Point Arena station were higher
than at San Francisco and showed persistent north-north-westerly ow in the
rst part of the period (fog development). In the second part of the period,
both stations show variable wind direction including oshore ow from the
eastern quadrant (prior to and during the fog dissipation period). The gure
shows that MM5 was able to capture the main behaviour of the ows at the
coastal land stations.
3.1.2. Comparison with Satellite Data
In addition to the point comparison described in the previous subsection, we
also compared model results with satellite data. Figure 4 shows Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 10 (GOES-10) visible images
over the West Coast at hourly intervals from 1600 to 2300 UTC on 13 April
1999. An extensive cloud and fog layer was observed over the entire California coast at the beginning of the period, and the layer cleared from the
north toward the end of the period. Figure 5 shows horizontal cross-sections

Wind speed
Santa Maria
Bodega Bay
Pt. Arena
Pt. Arguello
San Francisco
San Martin
Santa Barbara
Pt. Conception
Pt. Arena
(land)
San Fran.
Airport

34.88
38.23
39.22
34.71
37.75
35.74
34.24
34.25
38.96

37.60

46011
46013
46014
46023
46026
46028
46053
46063
PTAC1

SFO

122.40

120.87
123.30
123.97
120.97
122.82
121.88
119.85
120.66
123.74
3

5
5
5
10
5
5
5
5
30
9

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
26

Std dev

4.52
6.68
5.73
4.70
5.57
4.87
5.55
6.50
4.48
2.97

4.02
4.82
5.22
5.26
3.66
4.31
3.59
5.81
4.08
2.39

2.53
2.77
3.03
2.53
2.38
2.18
3.34
3.18
1.74
2.67

2.15
3.72
3.56
2.68
2.26
2.50
2.35
3.21
2.22

MM5 OBS
MM5 OBS
(m s)1) (m s)1) (m s)1) (m s)1)

Mean

120 3.31

121
121
121
121
97
121
121
121
121

Buoy ID N. Lat. W. Long. Height buoy Height MM5 N


()
()
(m MSL)
(m MSL)

0.50
1.86
0.51
)0.55
1.91
0.56
1.96
0.68
0.37
0.64 0.35

0.52
0.75
0.63
0.54
0.43
0.70
0.70
0.71
0.59

1.70

1.86
2.64
2.28
2.07
2.63
1.52
2.46
1.98
1.56

2.17

2.35
3.09
2.89
2.54
3.12
1.90
3.09
2.53
1.88

2.96

3.40
4.06
3.55
3.99
5.01
2.79
5.32
3.76
3.06

Corr ME
MAE RMSE RMSVE
(m s)1) (m s)1) (m s)1) (m s)1)

TABLE II
Statistical parameters of the comparison between MM5 results and buoy and coastal land station data for the period 1217 April 1999.

COASTAL SEA FOG

455

Temperature
Santa Maria
Bodega Bay
Pt. Arena
Pt. Arguello
San Francisco
San Martin
Santa Barbara
Pt. Conception
P. Arena (land)
San Fran. Airport

46011
46013
46014
46023
46026
46028
46053
46063
PTAC1
SFO

34.88
38.23
39.22
34.71
37.75
35.74
34.24
34.25
38.96
37.60

120.87
123.30
123.97
120.97
122.82
121.88
119.85
120.66
123.74
122.40

4
4
4
10
4
4
4
4
24
3

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
26
9

121
121
121
121
97
121
121
121
121
120

Buoy ID N. Lat. W. Long. Height buoy Height MM5 N


()
()
(m MSL)
(m MSL)

Table II
Continued.

9.34
10.59
9.18
9.36
11.73
10.67
11.21
9.66
11.31
14.81

1.81
1.18
1.15
1.75
1.82
2.00
1.42
1.55
4.67
5.39

2.81
3.34
3.36
2.87
3.73
2.92
2.14
2.63
1.63
5.04

MM5 OBS
(C)
(C)

MM5 OBS
(C)
(C)

11.51
11.07
10.95
11.12
11.31
11.14
11.22
10.99
9.70
15.21

Std dev

Mean

0.63
0.72
0.77
0.70
0.76
0.65
0.75
0.66
0.73
0.91

2.17
0.47
1.78
1.76
0.42
0.47
0.01
1.33
)1.66
0.42

Corr ME
(C)

2.51
2.20
2.57
2.20
2.06
1.89
1.12
1.85
3.51
1.87

3.06
2.68
3.18
2.71
2.65
2.26
1.42
2.34
3.97
2.32

MAE RMSE RMSVE


(C)
(C)
(C)

456
DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

457

COASTAL SEA FOG


(a) 350
Wind direction ()

300
250
200
150
Sim
Meas

100
50
0
12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5
15
Day of April 1999

15.5

16

16.5

17

(b) 350
Wind direction ()

300
250
200
150
Sim
Meas

100
50
0
12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5
15
Day of April 1999

15.5

16

16.5

17

Figure 3. Time series of measured and simulated wind direction at the Point Arena (a) and
San Francisco (b) coastal land stations from 12 to 17 April 1999.

of the colour-lled, simulated total-cloud liquid water mixing ratio at 90 m


near the beginning of the period (1200 UTC on 13 April), near the middle of
the period (1800 UTC on 13 April), and at the end of the period (0000 UTC
on 14 April). These periods correspond to the times shown in the satellite
image (Figure 4). The simulations accurately reproduced advection of the
cloud-fog edge from north-west to south-east along the coast. Figure 5 and
results of the statistical comparison between the model and measurements
show that the model was able to predict the general behaviour of cloud and
fog-layer evolution. Consequently, model results can be used for investigating the formation, maintenance, and dissipation of sea fog as discussed in the
following sections.
4. Modication of the Marine air Along Trajectories
Using buoy data from along the West Coast, K2001 inferred that coastal fog
in the southern part of the domain occurred in the early hours of 14 April
1999. Analysis of the one-dimensional modelling and a limited set of

458

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

Figure 4. GOES-10 visible images in hourly intervals from 1601 to 2301 UTC on 13 April
1999.

Figure 5. Horizontal, colour-lled cross-sections of the simulated liquid water mixing ratio
(kg kg)1) at 90 m on 13 April at 1200 UTC (a), on 13 April at 1800 UTC (b), and on 14
April 1999 at 0000 UTC (c).

COASTAL SEA FOG

459

Figure 6. Colour-lled, sea-surface temperature contours (C) o the southern Oregon and
California coasts at the time of sea-fog formation over southern California coastal waters
on 14 April 1999 at 0200 UTC. Contour interval is 0.5 K.

observations described in K2001 led to the development of and conceptual


model for conditions of north-westerly advection of the cloudy marine air
that dened modication of the MABL. Since the SST was lower o the
southern Oregon and northern California coasts and higher o the central
and southern California coasts (Figure 6), surface sensible and latent heat
uxes were increasing southward and consequently warming and moistening
the marine layer. Figure 6 conrms this characteristic SST structure at the
time of sea-fog formation. At the same time, cloud-top cooling caused

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

460

buoyant instability and overall cooling of the MABL, which propagated


downward. As shown by K2001, cloud-top cooling can overpower warming
from the surface and, together with increased moisture, can lead to fog under
conditions of strong subsidence and marine inversion. Spatial and temporal
variations of advection, however, strongly modify the temperature and
humidity properties of marine air. In particular, it is extremely important to
determine whether trajectories at dierent levels originate over the land or
ocean, as well as whether a trajectory originally over the ocean passes over
the land and undergoes air mass transformation (mainly warming and
drying).

4.1 BACK-TRAJECTORIES

WITH END POINTS IN FOG-COVERED AND CLEAR-SKY

AREAS

To better understand how marine air is modied while being advected along
the coast, we constructed a series of backward trajectories computed from
MM5-simulated wind elds and examined the simultaneous eects of cloudtop cooling, surface heating, and moistening along these trajectories. It
should be noted that the specied height of a backward trajectory refers to
the height at its end point. While tracing a trajectory backward in time, the
height of the trajectory will vary in time as a consequence of vertical motions.
We focus on two regions: one at which fog occurrence was inferred from
buoy measurements (Point Arguello, hereafter PA), and one at which fog was
absent according to the analysis of buoy observations (San Francisco,
hereafter SF). The eects of cloud-top cooling can be inferred by tracing
simulation results of air temperature at various levels and dierences with
respect to the SST. Trends in dew-point temperature as well as surface sensible and latent heat uxes can be used to infer eects of the ocean surface on
modication of the MABL as it is advected along the coast. Analysis of the
simulations indicated fog formation upwind of PA in the early hours of 14
April 1999. At 0300 UTC on 14 April, model results show fog formation at
the Point Arguello buoy location and no-fog conditions at the SF buoy
location predictions in agreement with saturation conditions at the buoys.
Figure 7 shows back-trajectories from these two sites at 10 m (near the
surface), 90 m (the lower part of the marine layer), 270 m (the upper part of
the marine layer), and 1000 m (above the marine layer) with an ending time
of 0300 UTC on 14 April. The typical depth of the marine layer (300500 m)
is indicated in the observational (e.g., Rogers et al., 1998) and modelling
studies (e.g., Koracin and Dorman, 2001). The surface back-trajectory from
PA (Figure 7a) was signicantly oshore, while the back-trajectory at 270 m
was originally located closer to the coast, approached the coastline south of
the Monterey Bay area for a short time, and then turned oshore afterwards.

COASTAL SEA FOG


(a)

461

(b)

Figure 7. Horizontal projection of simulated back-trajectories at 10 m (black), 90 m (blue),


270 m (red), and 1000 m (green) with endpoints at the Point Arguello (a) and San
Francisco (b) buoys on 14 April at 0300 UTC. Cloud and fog conditions at the Point
Arguello buoy and cloud and fog-free conditions at the San Francisco buoy were inferred
from buoy and coastal station measurements.

The ow above the marine layer was fully oshore. Back-trajectories with the
endpoint at the SF buoy location (Figure 7b) were oshore while
approaching the buoy, but the time history indicated an origin over land
where the back-trajectories encountered warming and drying. Figure 7
indicates that the origin and modication of the marine layer through
warming and drying over land can be a signicant determinant of cloud-free
and fog-free conditions.

4.2 MODIFICATION

OF AIR ALONG BACK-TRAJECTORIES RELEVANT TO FOG

OCCURRENCE

In order to examine simulated atmospheric conditions along back-trajectories, we constructed time series of air temperature, dew-point temperature,
SST, and cloud occurrence in terms of the vertically integrated liquid water
path (ILWP) (Stull, 1988) as well as surface sensible and latent heat uxes.
Figure 8 shows a time series of these parameters simulated along a surface
back-trajectory with the end point at PA where fog was inferred from
measurements. The SST gradually increased by about 2.5 K along the path
during the rst 12 h, and sensible and latent heat uxes increased by about

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

462

pa surface t(bo) td(gx) sst(r )


12

Temperature (C)

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4

30

35

40
Hour after simulation start

45

50

45

50

45

50

pa lwp (bo)
Integrated liquid water path (g m2)

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

30

35

40
Hour after simulation start
pa shflx (bo) & lhflx (gx)

100

Heat flux (W m 2 )

80
60
40
20
0
20

30

35

40
Hour after simulation start

Figure 8. Time series of simulated air temperature (solid line with circles), sea-surface temperature (dashed line), and dew-point temperature (solid line with x) (a); integrated liquid
water path (b); and surface heat (solid line with circles) and latent heat (solid with x) uxes
(c) along the surface back-trajectory at 10 m with the end point at the Point Arguello buoy
location on 14 April at 0300 UTC.

COASTAL SEA FOG

463

70 W m)2. Despite this signicant increase in the SST, as well as in the


surface sensible and latent heat uxes, the air temperature gradually decreased about 4 K during the same time. Since the surface back-trajectory
position was entirely oshore, we infer that the cooling mechanism originated from cloud-top and fog-top cooling. The importance of cloud- and fogtop cooling on the evolution of the MABL has been emphasized in both
observational (Nicholls, 1984) and modelling studies (Koracin and Rogers,
1990; Rogers and Koracin, 1992; K2001). The mechanism and main determinants for cooling of the air as it is advected oshore are discussed further
in the next section.
Examination of the present simulation results (Figure 8) shows that fog
formed at the beginning of the surface back-trajectory period and was
maintained throughout the travel to PA, except for a brief break-up and
lifting into the low-level cloud between hours 18 and 21 from the backtrajectory start. It should be noted that the main increase in temperature
occurred after a signicant drop in the ILWP (after hour 13). Air temperature was increasing and recovering toward the SST and, consequently, surface uxes were reduced. After hour 20, the gradual decrease in the SST and
increase in the ILWP led to a decrease in air temperature and saturation near
the surface while approaching PA. Since the back-trajectory was gradually
approaching the coast, the simulated boundary-layer height was greater in
the starting area (about 500 m) than in the end-point area (about 300 m).
Consequently, even the presence of relatively high air temperatures did not
prevent fog formation and maintenance due to the moisture conned in the
shallow marine layer and low surface uxes.
Figure 9 shows a time series of simulated atmospheric conditions along
the back-trajectory ending at the SF buoy location where fog was not
present. Evolution of the simulated atmospheric conditions was signicantly
dierent from conditions simulated along the back-trajectory ending at PA.
Near-surface air temperature for the SF back-trajectory gradually increased
(for the most part) due to the increase in the SST. There was a brief occurrence of fog in the far upwind side in the beginning period (rst four hours)
during which the air temperature initially dropped signicantly and then kept
relatively steady during the occurrence of fog. After the fog cleared, the air
temperature adjusted toward the SST, reducing the humidity. Sensible heat
ux decreased as the air temperature converged toward the SST, while the
latent heat ux increased somewhat due to decreasing humidity of the nearsurface air. Since there were no signicant clouds and associated cloud-top
cooling present, these conditions led to a fog-free state as the ow
approached SF.
Another determinant for the occurrence or absence of fog is vertical
structure and turbulent mixing within the boundary layer. As discussed
earlier and shown in Figure 7, the back-trajectories at various vertical levels

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

464

sf surface t(bo) td(gx) sst(r )


12

Temperature (C)

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4

40

42

44
46
Hour after simulation start

48

50

48

50

48

50

sf lwp (bo)
2

Integrated liquid water path (g m )

100
80
60
40
20
0

40

42

44
46
Hour after simulation start
sf shflx (bo) & lhflx (gx)

40

Heat flux (W m 2)

20
0
20
40
60
80
100

40

42

44
46
Hour after simulation start

Figure 9. Same as Figure 8, except with the end point at the San Francisco buoy location.

have dierent pathways and origins. Figure 8 shows that the air temperature
along the PA back-trajectory gradually decreased within the rst 10 h or so
and then gradually increased in approximately the middle of its duration

COASTAL SEA FOG

465

while approaching the coastline under intermittent clear-sky conditions.


After hour 17, however, the back-trajectory turned oshore and under
cloudy-fog conditions cooled down almost 4 K and signicantly increased in
humidity while approaching PA. In contrast to the PA back-trajectory, the
temperature along the SF back-trajectory near the surface (Figure 9) gradually increased, with low humidity throughout the travel time. These high
temperatures and low humidities at higher levels, in conjunction with
increasing surface temperature and relatively low near-surface humidity
(Figure 9), led to an absence of fog at the SF location. Our present threedimensional simulations conrm the results from the one-dimensional simulations of K2001, that there was noticeable TKE generated by surface uxes
and longwave cooling at the cloud top. Simulated mean TKE along the PA
trajectories was 0.26 and 0.13 m2 s)2 at the surface and 270 m, respectively,
and was less along the SF trajectories (0.17 and 0.02 m2 s)2 at the surface and
270 m, respectively) without signicant cloud-fog top cooling. Reduced TKE
in the latter case was a consequence of small surface uxes and the absence of
cloud-generated turbulence, mainly through cloud-top cooling, as shown in
previous studies such as Koracin and Rogers (1990), Koracin and Tjernstrom
(1992), and Tjernstrom and Koracin (1995).

5. Fog Formation in Response to the Interplay of Surface Forcing, Cloud-Top


Cooling and Entrainment
On the basis of our modelling results, we investigated the roles of the main
components of heat transfer that can lead to net cooling or heating of the
MABL. As a rst step towards understanding the importance of the major
components, we performed a scale analysis of the simplied thermodynamic
equation from a mixed-layer model (Stage and Businger, 198la,b):
dh w0 h0e Rc  Rb we Dhe

:
dt
zb
zb
zb

The term on the left-hand side represents the total change of the potential
temperature due to the following terms on the right-hand side: divergence of
sensible heat ux, divergence of net radiative ux, and entrainment processes.
In this equation, w0 h0e is the surface kinematic heat ux; zb is the height of the
MABL (equal to the height of the inversion base); Rc, and Rb are the normalized net radiative uxes at the cloud top and base, respectively; we is the
entrainment rate velocity; and Dhe is the jump in equivalent potential temperature within the inversion.

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

466

5.1. SCALE

ANALYSIS OF THE TERMS IN THE EQUATION FOR POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURE

Simulated surface uxes were computed based on the similarity theory


described by Grell et al. (1994) and Beg-Paklar et al. (2001), while the height
of the MABL was estimated by jointly examining vertical gradients of the
potential temperature and TKE, as well as the top of the cloud layer. Heating
and cooling rates due to radiative heat transfer were simulated for each level
using the parameterization by Dudhia (1989). Entrainment velocity (we) was
computed using the simplied prognostic equation for evolution of the
MABL height (zb):
dzb
we wm
dt

where wm is the mean model vertical velocity at the top of the MABL. From
the model results we computed the change of the boundary-layer height (lefthand side of Equation (2)). Then we computed we from Equation (3) using
these wm and dzdtb estimates.
Since modelled radiation tendency is a computed value for each grid
point, we converted radiation tendency from a particular point into the
associated eect for the entire MABL. Radiation tendency for each point is
assumed to be representative of the half-grid vertical interval above and
below the considered point. The magnitude of the radiation tendency was

Potential temperature tendency (10

1
Ks )

1.5

0.5

0.5

1.5

10

15

20

Hour after simulation start

Figure 10. Time series of simulated terms on the right-hand side of Equation (1) contributing to the MABL heating and cooling processes: surface heat ux (dashed), radiation tendency (solid), and entrainment (dashed-dotted line with circles) for back-trajectory with
endpoint at the Point Arguello buoy location on 14 April at 0300 UTC.

COASTAL SEA FOG

467

then multiplied by the ratio of this vertical separation to the MABL depth;
then these values for each layer are summed up to the top of the MABL. In
our specic case, we performed this procedure for the vertical prole for
every hour at the point where the trajectory was at that hour. By following
this process, we were able to extrapolate the value of the radiation tendency
derived for each particular point and its corresponding z into its particular
contribution to heating or cooling of the entire MABL. As discussed in the
previous section, turbulence was sucient to provide mixing and redistribution of this heating and cooling.
Figure 10 shows a time series of the main components contributing to the
potential temperature tendency. Use of the simplied thermodynamic
equation (Equation (1)) imposes a residual with respect to the simulated total
change of the potential temperature that includes treatment of full threedimensional processes. The average dierence between the left-hand side of
Equation (1) and the simulated total change of the potential temperature is
26%. Relative magnitudes among the components shown in Figure 10,
however, remain the same as the initial estimate of individual importance.
Figure 10 clearly indicates that longwave cooling is the main contributor to
the cooling of the MABL in the rst part of the period when the overall
cooling of the marine layer was simulated along the back-trajectory with the
end point at Point Arguello (Figure 8). Cloudand fog-induced cooling is
counteracted by heating due to the surface heat ux and entrainment.
According to this scale analysis, cloud- and fog-top cooling is denitely a
process that can dominate surface forcing and entrainment and, in conjunction with increased moisture, can lead to condensation. The eect was
prominent during the rst 7 h and at the nal stage of the trajectory when the
surface heat ux was low. Note that the moisture ux increased during the
period of increased heat ux and that apparent cooling of the air along the
trajectory during the last several hours prior to fog formation was sucient
to produce fog.
6. Dissipation of Sea Fog
In accordance with the observations in K2001, the sea fog analysed in the
previous section dissipated in the area north of Point Conception after 1600
UTC on 15 April. In order to examine the eect of advection and surface
uxes on fog dissipation, we constructed back-trajectories with the end point
in the PA area at the time after fog clearing (0000 UTC on 16 April) and
extending 18 h backward in time, while the trajectories were in the domain.
Figure 11 shows the position of the back-trajectories at the surface, 90 m,
270 m, and 1000 m. In contrast to Figure 7, which shows the oshore origin
of the back-trajectories, Figure 11 clearly indicates that trajectories both

468

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

Figure 11. Horizontal projection of simulated back-trajectories at 10 m (black), 90 m (blue),


270 m (red), and 1000 m (green) that are relevant to fog dissipation. The back-trajectories
have their end point at the Point Arguello buoy location on 16 April at 0000 UTC.

within and above the MABL originated over land and entered the coastal
waters mainly as an easterly ow. Figure 12 shows a time series of the
temperature, dew-point temperature, ILWP, and surface sensible and latent
heat uxes along the surface back-trajectory shown in Figure 11. In contrast
to the properties of the air mass along the back-trajectory relevant to fog
formation (Figure 8), the air mass at the origin of the trajectory over land
was warm and dry and encountered cooling and moistening while mixing
with coastal air over the ocean. The air temperature gradually decreased,
approaching the SST, as shown by the reduction in sensible heat ux. The
main temperature decrease was from hour 6 to 11 when the air mass
encountered thin cloud, as indicated in Figure 12. ILWP was more than 10
times lower in this case than in the case of the oshore trajectory relevant to
cloud and fog formation (Figure 8). During the short-term cooling from
hours 6 to 11, surface uxes were small and did not contribute to vertical
moisture transport. In spite of the gradual increase in the dew-point tem-

469

COASTAL SEA FOG


(a)

Temperature (C)

20

15

10

8
10
12
Hour after backtrajectory start

14

16

18

8
10
12
Hour after backtrajectory start

14

16

18

8
10
12
Hour after backtrajectory start

14

16

18

Integrated liquid water path (g m )

(b) 40

Heat flux (W m 2)

(c)

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

50

50

100

Figure 12. Time series of simulated air temperature (solid line with circles), sea-surface temperature (dashed line), and dew-point temperature (dashed dotted line with x) (a); integrated liquid water path (b); and surface heat (solid line with circles) and latent heat
(dashed line with x) uxes (c) along the surface back-trajectory that are relevant to fog dissipation. The end point of the back-trajectory is at the Point Arguello buoy location on 16
April 1999 at 0000 UTC.

470

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

perature until the last few hours of the back-trajectory, there was no signicant cooling of the surface air when the trajectory was approaching PA.
All these processes led to clear-sky conditions at the end of the considered
back-trajectory.
Another complexity in the formation and dissipation of sea fog is the
interaction of synoptic processes and locally induced coastal circulations
(Lewis et al., 2003). A process of gradual cooling of the cloudy marine air
occurred along the oshore advection path with sucient moisture, turbulence, and saturation. In the case of synoptic pressure centre displacements
and weakening of the synoptic pressure gradients, land-breeze ows develop
during nighttime and, by mixing with alongshore marine ows, induce general drying of the MABL. During daytime, sea breezes develop and in the
return ow, they bring warm and dry air that originated over land. Drying
and warming are enhanced by daytime shortwave radiational heating of the
cloud and fog layers (Nicholls, 1984; Koracin and Rogers, 1990). All these
eects promote fog dissipation. The eects of radiative processes on the
diurnal evolution of coastal clouds are discussed by Betts (1990) and Koracin
and Dorman (2001).
Figure 13a shows surface vector winds at the time (0200 UTC on 14 April)
when fog onset was simulated in the PA area. This area was under the
(a)

MAXIMUM VECTOR: 13.9 m s -1

(b)

MAXIMUM VECTOR: 21.6 m s -1

Figure 13. Simulated vector winds and wind speed contours on 14 April at 0200 UTC (13
April at 1800 LST) during fog formation, at the surface (a) and at 500 m (b). Contour
interval for the wind speed is 2 m s)1. For clarity, wind vectors are plotted at every tenth
grid point.

COASTAL SEA FOG

471

inuence of alongshore marine ows with strong winds near San Francisco
and Monterey Bay that weakened south of Monterey Bay. We simulated
similar ow characteristics, although with greater wind speeds, at 500 m
(Figure 13b). Simulated vector winds at the surface and at 500 m (prior to
fog dissipation) are shown in Figure 14a, b, respectively. As indicated in
Figure 1 and explained further in this section (see Figures 15 and 16), the
high pressure system moved inland and synoptic pressure gradients were
substantially weaker. This produced a signicant decrease in winds within the
marine layer and allowed for the development of oshore ows. Oshore
ows were simulated throughout the marine layer, as shown by the vector
winds at the surface and 500 m (Figure 14a, b). The main impact of the
oshore ows was to warm and dry the MABL near the coast. This is clearly
seen in Figure 15, which shows colour-lled, surface-temperature contours
during fog formation (Figure 15a) and 48 h later (Figure 15b). The gure
shows gradual warming and a decrease of the pressure gradients over the
ocean in the southern and south-western regions of the domain. Gradual
heating of the air over land associated with the high pressure system also can
be seen in Figure 15. Another important feature of the oshore ows is the
consequent drying of the MABL near the coast. Figure 16 shows gradual

(b)

(a)

MAXIMUM VECTOR: 13.5 m s -1

MAXIMUM VECTOR: 17.8 m s -1

Figure 14. Simulated vector winds and wind speed contours on 15 April at 1300 UTC
(0500 LST) prior to fog dissipation, at the surface (a) and at 500 m (b). Contour interval
for the wind speed is 2 m s)1. For clarity, wind vectors are plotted at every tenth grid
point.

472

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

(a)

(b)

MAXIMUM VECTOR: 13.9 m s -1

MAXIMUM VECTOR: 13.9 m s -1

Figure 15. Colour-lled, simulated surface air temperature (C) overlaid with sea-level pressure (hPa) and surface winds (knots) at 0200 UTC at a 48-h interval: 14 April 1999 (a) and
16 April 1999 (b). Contour interval for the sea-level pressure is 0.5 hPa. For clarity, wind
vectors are plotted at every tenth grid point.

drying of the surface air in colour-lled, surface relative humidity contours


for the same time intervals shown in Figure 15. During the fog period,
humidity was high over the whole oshore region (Figure 16a), with drying
propagating from the north-west to the south-east as the oshore ows
developed (Figure 16b). The combined eect of the MABL warming and
drying led to dissipation of clouds and fog.
7. Summary and Conclusions
Using MM5, we simulated a case of widespread oshore cloud and fog
layers along the California coast during 1416 April 1999. Our main
objective was to investigate and quantify the eects of advection, radiation, surface uxes, and entrainment relevant to the formation, evolution,
and dissipation of sea fog. Areas where fog was observed (PA) and where
fog was not present (SF) were considered for analysis using buoy and land
station observations. Our results emphasize that it is crucial to investigate
the formation, evolution, and eventual dissipation of sea fog in a
Lagrangian framework (i.e., along long over-water trajectories and tra-

COASTAL SEA FOG

(a)

(b)

MAXIMUM VECTOR: 13.9 m s -1

MAXIMUM VECTOR: 8.4 m s -1

473

Figure 16. Colour-lled, simulated surface relative humidity (%) overlaid with sea-level
pressure (hPa) and surface vector winds at 0200 UTC at a 48-h interval: 14 April 1999 (a)
and 16 April 1999 (b). Contour interval for the sea-level pressure is 0.5 hPa. For clarity,
wind vectors are plotted at every tenth grid point.

jectories that originate over land). The study also shows that modication
of the MABL is signicantly dependent on advection processes over the
land and ocean and whether clouds are present during the transformation.
During the time when the fog formed, a fog layer and cloud layer were
present with signicant ILWP (0.20.4 kg m)2). Cloud-top cooling generated net cooling of the marine layer by about 4 K despite the gradual
increase in the SST by 23 K along the trajectory. Within 12 h this triggered an increase of the surface heat and latent heat uxes of about
7080 W m)2 along the trajectory. This surface heating counteracted
cloud-top cooling but not suciently to overcome the eect of cloudgenerated cooling and fog formation that was simulated at the end of the
back-trajectories. Scale analysis of the major factors (radiative cloud-top
cooling, surface uxes, and entrainment) determining the evolution and
fate of sea fog showed that in this case cloud-top cooling was a dominant
process creating net cooling of the MABL, and leading to the formation
and maintenance of the cloud and fog layers. When the cloud and fog
layers were absent with a greater increase of the SST along the trajectory,
surface uxes continuously increased air and dew-point temperatures.

474

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

Consequently, these conditions did not yield fog conditions at the end
points of the trajectories.
Our model results show that dissipation of sea fog along the West Coast is
signicantly inuenced by the development of land-driven circulations.
Dissipation of sea fog is governed by the complex interplay between advection, synoptic evolution, and development of local circulations. Displacement
and weakening of horizontal synoptic pressure gradients and the consequent
decrease in marine winds allows for development of oshore ows. These
oshore ows merge with weak marine ows and cause drying of the MABL.
During daytime, the oshore ows can induce warming and consequent fog
dissipation.
In conclusion, we would like to emphasize that we have provided a
theoretical background for the formation, evolution, and dissipation of sea
fog and indicated the major components determining sea-fog characteristics. This methodology should be applied to other cases and types of sea
fog and further evaluated using observations from future eld programs to
be conducted in Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks of reference over
the ocean.
8. Epilogue on Sea-Fog Research and Implications for Operational
Forecasting
In addition to the summary and conclusions section, we believe that it is
important to provide a general picture of sea-fog research, its challenges, and
associated implications for operational forecasting.
We have completed a suite of observational and modelling studies related to
coastal sea fog (K2001; Lewis et al., 2003, 2004; and the current contribution).
The observational studies of the sea-fog event of April 1999 (part of K2001 and
Lewis et al., 2003) and the view of sea fog in the context of synoptic processes
over the West Coast (Lewis et al., 2003) showed that widespread sea fog is
controlled by large- and regional-scale processes: subsidence, long over-water
trajectories and land-based trajectories, and the consequent structure of the
marine layer. It appears that cooling of the marine layer in the presence of a
warm ocean is due to radiative cooling associated with stratus. The value of
these precise simulations of radiative uxes stems from the models very ne
vertical resolution (approximately 10 m, K2001).
Our three-dimensional modelling results indicate that delineation of fog and
fog-free areas can be ascertained through careful analysis of trajectories within
and above the MABL. These modelling results also provide reasonable values
of the liquid water content of the fog layer. Further, results indicate that the
dissipation of fog is linked to changes in the mesoscale wind eld. Radiative
cloud-top cooling generates turbulence that can induce fog maintenance and

COASTAL SEA FOG

475

evolution; however, due to a general lack of turbulence measurements in sea


fog, the role of turbulence transfer is not yet well understood (Nakanishi, 2000).
What do these observational and modelling results portend for the success
of operational prediction? First, our studies indicate that the description of
large-scale subsidence, as well as the presence and placement of stratus
clouds, are an essential part of the background information. Subsidence
strength should be predicted to within 0.01 m s)1. Timing of frontal passages
in the coastal region (time between successive passages) must be accurate
(probably within 6 h based on results in Lewis et al., 2003). The positioning and strength of the cyclone-anticyclone couplets also must be precise
in order to accurately determine trajectories of the air within and above the
MABL. Can synoptic-scale numeric models faithfully produce these features?
On the optimistic side, the ability of the model to predict the movement of
synoptic systems (strength and positioning) is generally very good. On the
pessimistic side, the ability of the model to address associated subsidence,
and in particular subsidence just above the MABL, is problematic (not so
much in position but in strength).
Given good background information, can mesoscale features including
the boundary-layer physics be predicted with sucient accuracy to determine the occurrence or absence of fog? Again, on the positive side, the ability
of the model to predict radiative and turbulence processes shows promise in
bringing the marine layer to a saturated state (in the foggy region), and
indicating that the time history of the trajectories is key to determining
whether fog is likely or not.
Thus, there is promise for reliable operational prediction of fog, yet the
sensitivity of parameter estimation (air-sea ux, radiative cooling, initial state
of the MABL and overlying dry layer) leads us to believe that a prudent
approach would involve ensemble forecasting (i.e., prediction of the mean
condition as well as variances). We also realize that models will have great
diculty addressing the persistence of sea fog. Once sea fog forms, it tends to
persist, especially if the synoptic systems are more steady than transient.
There is negative feedback, in eect. That is, if one process (e.g., heating from
the sea surface) tends to dissipate the fog, the induced turbulence could
possibly lead to mixing with radiatively cooled air at the stratus base and
maintenance of the fog. To parameterize physical processes within the marine
layer so precisely as to properly account for these negative feedbacks is a
formidable challenge, yet to be achieved.
While we strive to improve our modelling capabilities, we also need to
promote the development of measurement tools for the ocean environment.
The dew-point sensors that exist on a limited number of buoys have proved
crucial in our studies, giving us valuable data on temporal changes in vapour
near the surface. Cloud-fog structure and cloud-top temperature estimates
over the ocean from satellites also have been of great value. Missing, and of

476

DARKO KORACIN ET AL.

critical importance, are the temperature and dew-point structure in the


MABL and immediately above it, as well as the spatial and temporal evolution of wind elds and turbulence over the ocean, especially near the coast.
At present, we are unable to estimate these features of the MABL using
satellite data.
Based on these recent studies on sea fog o the California coast, physical
processes associated with sea fog have been claried. Yet, operational prediction must await the availability of measurements over the sea that will more
faithfully dene the initial state and evolutionary process. A certain form of
ensemble forecasting, a synthesis of dynamic and probabilistic predictions,
will be most meaningful in the next step of solving this challenging problem.
Acknowledgements
Two of the authors (Koracin and Lewis) acknowledge support from the
Oce of Naval Research grant N00014-00-1-0524. All authors would like to
express their gratitude to the late Dr. Dale Leipper for his great motivation
and inspiration in coastal sea-fog research. Dr. Jordan Powers of the
National Center for Atmospheric Research is acknowledged for technical
assistance and helpful comments. One of the authors (Koracin) thanks Dr.
Michael Tjernstrom of the University of Stockholm in Sweden for helpful
comments and also Dr. Ragothaman Sundararajan for help in initial analysis
during his appointment at the Desert Research Institute. Mr. Travis
McCord, Mr. Domagoj Podnar, and Mr. Adam Kochanski of the Desert
Research Institute are acknowledged for technical preparation of the manuscript. All authors are grateful to Mr. Roger Kreidberg of the Desert
Research Institute for his thorough editorial eorts. Implemented suggestions from three anonymous reviewers contributed signicantly as well.
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