Tropical Update

8 AM EDT
Thursday, August 27, 2015
Tropical Storm Erika
This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for
informational and situational awareness purposes only. Forecast conditions are subject to
change based on a variety of environmental factors. For additional information, or for any life
safety concerns with an active weather event please contact your County Emergency
Management or Public Safety Office, local National Weather Service forecast office or visit the
National Hurricane Center website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Atlantic Basin Satellite Image

Tropical Waves

T.S. Erika

Satellite Images of T.S. Erika

Water Vapor Satellite Image

84

86
82
60-65

84
79

86

Dry Air
87

Tropical Storm
Danny

T.S. Erika

T.S Erika
ASCAT Satellite
Wind Data from
9 am EDT

3 Day Wind Swath and NHC Forecast Track

Steering Currents

Sea Surface Temperatures Near T.S. Erika

88
86
84
82

80

78

Current Wind Shear (shaded) and Shear

Tendency (contours)

Forecast Wind Shear-Friday Night

Forecast Wind Shear-Saturday Night

Invest 97L

Tropical Storm Wind

Probabilities (34Kt):

Jacksonville 19%
Daytona Beach 25%
W Palm Beach 35%
Miami, FL
32%
Key West, FL 18%

Tropical Storm Wind

Probabilities (50Kt):
Jacksonville
Daytona Beach
W Palm Beach
Miami, FL
Key West, FL

3%
7%
10%
9%
5%

Forecast 7 Day Rainfall Totals

Keetch Byram Drought Index (KDBI)

Outlook:
Tropical Storm Erika has strengthened overnight and now has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
Erika is currently located near the Lesser Antilles (Eastern Caribbean), or about 1350 miles southeast of Miami and is currently
moving to the west at 16 mph.
A slight turn towards the west-northwest is expected later today, and this general motion should continue over the next 48
hours.
On this track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today and near or just north of Puerto Rico later tonight.
The models have generally shifted their tracks westward over the last several runs, with the center of the National Hurricane
Centers forecast cone now slightly east of Florida.
However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast after 48 hours, and the entire Florida Peninsula remains within
the 5 day forecast cone.
Despite strengthening overnight, Erika is still a very sheared tropical storm, with the main area of convection located to the east
and southeast of the center.
Models are still showing that Erika will be in an unfavorable environment for significant strengthening for the next 48 hours or
so due to increasing wind shear.
Tropical Storm Erika is expected to experience little change in intensity over the next 48 hours.
After 48 hours, the environment should become more favorable due to weakening shear and warmer sea surface
temperatures.
The amount of strengthening that may occur once Erika reaches this environment is heavily dependent on how well it handles
the conditions over the next 48 hours.
Models still have a large spread in their intensity forecast after 48 hours, and the National Hurricane Centers forecast is on the
lower side of the guidance due to the possibility that Erika does not survive the next 48 hours.
Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently conducting flights into Erika.
Florida Outlook:

The entire Florida Peninsula remains within the 5 day forecast cone, with areas along the Southeast Florida coast now having
30%-40% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds during the next 5 days.

It is important when looking at these probability graphics to not focus on the number, but rather the trends as new products
become available. The probability of tropical storm force winds across the Peninsula have been slowly increasing.

Given the uncertainty in the forecast in the 3 to 5 day range, it is very difficult to determine what the impact to Florida may be
at this time, however, interests in Florida should continue to monitor the storms progress as it nears the U.S.

Another Briefing Packet will be sent out this afternoon after the 5pm advisory.

For more information on this system visit the NHC website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Created by:

Molly Merrifield, Assistant State Meteorologist

Molly.Merrifield@em.myflorida.com