Alice Tao

10/17/14
Smoking: Investigative Task

The American Journal of Public Health compiled data on the number of cigarettes consumed
per adult per year and number of deaths related to coronary heart disease per 100,000 people reported
from 21 countries. This research was done to focus on how cigarette smoking may be linked to
coronary heart disease. Now, many health officials are debating over whether or not the United States
should adopt a goal of cutting cigarette consumption in half. The question is: will there be health
benefits related to coronary heart disease if cigarette consumption is cut in half in the United States?
The association between cigarette consumption and coronary heart disease mortality is linear,
positive and moderate. The correlation (r) is 0.7308. We know that the association is positive because
the value for r is positive. Therefore, generally, countries that have a higher cigarette consumption also
have a higher CHD mortality. The data definitely has a linear correlation, because the residual plot
shows no special pattern and is random.
Some of the points are unusual. For example, Finland and Mexico are unusual points on the
scatterplot and the residual plot. Finland has an unusually high rate of CHD deaths for its level of
cigarette consumption. Its residual is 87.4. Mexico, on the other hand, has an unusually lower CHD
death rate than expected for its amount of cigarette consumption. Its residual is -84.7.
The least-squares regression line for the data is = 15.64 + .0602x if is predicted CHD
Mortality in deaths per 100,000 and x is cigarette consumption per adult per year. The slope is .0602.
This means that if the number of cigarettes consumed per adult per year increases by one, then the
death rate due to CHD per 100,000 is predicted to increase by .0602. The y-intercept of the line is
15.64. This means that if 0 cigarettes are consumed per adult per year, then the CHD mortality is
predicted to be 15.64 deaths per 100,000 people.
The r-squared of the graph is .5340. This means that 53.4% of the variation in coronary heart
disease mortality can be explained by the least-squares regression linear model of CHD mortality in

deaths per 100,000 and cigarette consumption per adult per year.
If the United States cut its cigarette consumption in half, the number of cigarettes per adult per
year would go from 3900 to 1950. The model predicts that at 1950 cigarettes per adult per year, the
CHD mortality would decrease from 257 deaths per 100,000 to a predicted 133 deaths per 100,000
people. However, there is no guarantee of this decrease in coronary heart disease deaths. This is simply
a model and an estimation/prediction. It is not reality, so there may not be a complete and definitive
relationship between average cigarette consumption and CHD mortality in this way.