Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
YEARBOOK
2015
Armaments,
Disarmament and
International
Security
Summary
STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into
conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI
provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to
policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.
THE SIPRI YEARBOOK
SIPRI Yearbook 2015 presents a combination of original data in areas such as world military
expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, nuclear forces, armed conflicts
and multilateral peace operations with state-of-the-art analysis of important aspects of arms
control, peace and international security. The SIPRI Yearbook, which was first published in
1969, is written by both SIPRI researchers and invited outside experts.
This booklet summarizes the contents of SIPRI Yearbook 2015 and gives samples of the
data and analysis that it contains.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2
4
6
8
10
11
13
9. Military expenditure
10. International arms transfers and arms production
11. World nuclear forces
14
16
18
20
22
23
24
Annexes
26
www.sipriyearbook.org
SIPRI 2015
1. INTRODUCTION.
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY,
ARMAMENTS AND DISARMAMENT
ian anthony
A common thread in 2014 was an
underlying concern about the capacity of
states to manage a mounting set of often
interconnected problems.
With state collapse in Iraq, Libya and
Syria, external actors now appear more
reluctant to assume responsibility for the
internal security of other states, or
uncertain about which kinds of
intervention can play a constructive role.
Looking forward, identifying fragile states
could be an essential element in
understanding where future threats lie and
preparing appropriate kinds of
intervention. Conversely, identifying the
elements that make states resilient could be
an important contribution to reducing the
risk of state failure.
In Europewhere there was a serious
breakdown in security both regionally and
within several states during 2014the role
of the state as a security provider is also
being reassessed. Despite the dense web of
legal conventions, political agreements,
institutions of different kinds and other
security instruments in place, political
crisis escalated into major conflict in
Ukraine in the space of only a few months.
Whether Europe is returning to a concept
of security based on traditional forms of
power politics has become a legitimate and
widespread question.
Another subject for reflection in 2014
was the extent to which multilateralism as
an approach to security governance is in
decline. On some measures the United
Nations Security Council was more active
introduction 1
m a p of u k r a i n e a n d n e igh b ou r i ng c ou n t r i e s
P rip y
30
BELARUS
Pinsk
40
35
Homyel'
De
sna
25
ats'
Kursk
Shostka
VOLYN
50
Przemysl
Chornobyl'
Korosten'
RIVNE
Luts'k
L'viv
Zhytomyr
Berdychiv
CA
Ternopil' KHMELNYTSKY
R P Drohobych
AT
Stryi
H
TERNOPIL
I
Khmelnytsky
A
SLOVAKIA
N IVANO-Ivano-Frankivs'k
OL
DO
MYKOLAYIV
P
ivd
Marhanets'
Taganrog
KHERSON
K a rkin i
Reni
G
sts'k a
Izmayil
ulf
SEA OF AZOV
Dzhankoy
Kerch
Feodosiya
Novocherkassk
Rostovna-Donu
fK
Constanta
C K
BULGARIA
Varna
30
Kuban'
rc
Yalta
35
R USSIA
45
Krasnodar
Novorossiysk
it o
Simferopol'
S tra
AUTONOMOUS
REP. OF CRIMEA
Yevpatoriya
Sevastopol'
Shakhty
Makiyivka
DONETSK
Nova Kakhovka
Road
Railroad
25
Donets'k
Zaporizhzhya
Kherson
Danube Delta
Dan u
Luhans'k
Alchevs'k
Krasnyi
Luch
Horlivka
KahovskeZAPORIZHZHYA
Mariupol'
Vdskh.
Melitopol'
Berdyans'k
Odesa
Galati
Braila
Nikopol'
uh
.B
Slovians'k
Dnipropetrovs'k
DNIPROPETROVSK
Mykolayiv
Prut
45
Lozova
Pavlohrad
Kryvyi Rih
VA
National capital
Capital of Autonomous Republic
of Crimea and oblast' centre
City, town
Airport
International boundary
ODESA
Chisinau
Starobil'sk
Izyum
Dniprodzerzhyns'k
Zhovti
Vody
LUHANSK
KHARKIV
Kremenchuk
Pervomays'k
Iasi
Smila
Kirovohrad
et
Sir
S
IN
ROMANIA
ro
KIROVOHRAD
Bati
Kharkiv
Lubny
POLTAVA
Kremenchuts'ke
Vdskh.
Poltava
Uman'
Dn
ist
e
CHERNIVTSI
ip
Cherkasy
CHERKASY
TA
HUNGARY
Bila
Tserkva
Vinnytsya
50
KYIV
VINNYTSYA
Chernivtsi
ZAKARPATTYA
Belgorod
Romny
Brovary
Kyiv
Dn
FRANKIVSK
Mukachevo
KamianetsPodil's'kyi
Uzhhorod
SUMY Sumy
Pryluky
NovohradVolyns'kyi
LVIV
Konotop
Nizhyn
ZHYTOMYR
Rivne
n
Sa
POLAND
sla
CHERNIHIV
Vorskla
Wi
R USSIA
Chernihiv
Kovel'
Su
la
Lublin
4. ARMED CONFLICT
Preliminary findings reported in early 2015
suggest that there were more wars in 2014
than any other year since the year 2000. In
retrospect, 2014 may stand out as a
particularly violent year. However, in 2013
there were few, if any, predictive indicators
of some of the violence that unfolded in
2014, particularly of Russias annexation of
Crimea and support of violent separatism in
eastern Ukraine. To a lesser degree, the
same applies to the brutality of Boko
Haram in Nigeria and the Islamic State (IS)
in Iraq as well as the 2014 Gaza War.
Gender, peace and armed conflict
n u m b e r of a r m e d c on f l ic t s ,
t h e gl ob a l pe ac e i n de x ,
2 0 0 4 1 3
2 0 14
50
Number
40
30
20
10
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
State-based conflict
Non-state conflict
One-sided violence
Score Change
1 Iceland
2 Denmark
3 Austria
4 New Zealand
5 Switzerland
1.189 +0.027
1.193 0.001
1.200 0.049
1.236 0.000
1.258 0.001
158 Somalia
159 Iraq
160 South Sudan
161 Afghanistan
162 Syria
3.368 0.026
3.377 +0.132
3.397 +0.795
3.416 0.025
3.650 +0.244
80
to peace operations
No. of operations
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Conducting organization:
United Nations
Ad hoc coalition
n u m b e r of pe r s on n e l de pl oy e d t o m u lt i l at e r a l pe ac e
ope r at ion s , 2 0 0 5 14
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total
Non-UN operations
United Nations
operations
6. EUROPEAN SECURITY
In 2014 the escalating political crisis in
Ukraine was followed by a rapid descent
into a major conflict that drew in a wide
range of external actors in a variety of
rolesincluding as combatants, armourers
and mediators. The political relationship
between Russia and a spectrum of Western
countries deteriorated rapidly, and some
institutional relationshipssuch as those
between the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) and Russia, and
Russia and the European Union (EU)may
have been damaged irrevocably.
The speed with which a relatively new
and previously unknown armed actor
Islamic Statecould establish military and
administrative control over a large territory
in western Iraq and eastern Syria was a
further shock. Murders in European cities
carried out by individuals with connections
to the conflicts in Iraq and Syria
highlighted the erosion of the lines
between internal and external security of
states in Europe.
A renewed emphasis on the military
dimension of EuroAtlantic security
Nonetheless, in an increasingly
interconnected and complex world, it has
become clear that security and
development are inextricably linked,
especially in least-developed countries.
Threats to security can have socioeconomic roots, including contests over
natural resources, spillover effects of
environmental degradation, economic and
social inequalities, economic and political
migration, and natural disasters, among
others. For over 20 years, development has
been linked to security through the concept
of human security. The relationship can be
complex: lagging development can lead to
grievance, and conflict can threaten
development. The 2000 United Nations
Millennium Declaration emphasized peace
and security as prerequisites for poverty
reduction and recent stocktaking on the
9. MILITARY EXPENDITURE
World military expenditure was estimated
at $1776 billion in 2014, representing 2.3 per
cent of global gross domestic product or
$245 per person. Total expenditure was
about 0.4 per cent lower in real terms than
in 2013.
Military spending continued to increase
rapidly in Africa, Eastern Europe and the
Middle East. A combination of high oil
prices until the latter part of 2014 and
numerous regional conflicts contributed to
rising military expenditure in several of the
major spending countries in these regions.
The conflicts in Ukraine, and in Iraq and
Syria, among others, are likely to continue
to drive military expenditure in a number
of states in these regions. However, the
wor l d m i l i ta ry s pe n di ng , 2 014
Region
Spending Change
($ b.)
(%)
Africa (50)
5.9
North Africa
20.1
7.6
Sub-Saharan Africa
(30.1)
4.8
Americas
705 5.7
Central America
10.4
9.1
and the Caribbean
North America
627 6.4
South America
67.3 1.3
Asia and Oceania
439
5.0
Central and South Asia
65.9
2.0
East Asia
309
6.2
Oceania
28.0
6.9
South East Asia
35.9
0.4
Europe
386
0.6
Eastern Europe
93.9
8.4
Western and Central
292 1.9
Middle East
(196)
5.2
World total
1 776
0.4
t h e r e p or t i ng of m i l i ta ry
e x pe n di t u r e data t o t h e u n
The United Nations Report on Military
Expenditures remains an important source
for official data on military expenditure.
However, the response rate of UN member
states to the annual request to submit data
decreased in 2014, reversing an increase in
2013. The overall response rate remains low at
25 per cent. The political sensitivity of
military expenditure may be a primary reason
for not reporting in some cases, but many
states make their military budgets available
online to the general public. Equally, the fact
that many countries have responded at least
once suggests that they have the capacity to
report, but they may lack the resources or
political commitment to respond consistently.
c h a nge s i n m i l i ta ry e x pe n di t u r e , b y r e gion , 2 01 3 14
World
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
North America
Latin America
Central and South Asia
East Asia
South East Asia
Oceania
Eastern Europe
Western and Central Europe
Middle East
10
4
2
0
2
4
Change in military expenditure (%)
10
t h e t r e n d i n t r a n s f e r s of
m a jor w e a p on s , 2 0 0 5 14
35 000
30000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
t h e m a i n e x p or t e r s a n d
i m p or t e r s of m a jor w e a p on s ,
2 010 14
Exporter
1. USA
2. Russia
3. China
4. Germany
5. France
6. U K
7. Spain
8. Italy
9. Ukraine
10. Israel
Global
share (%) Importer
31
27
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
Global
share (%)
1. India
2. Saudi Arabia
3. China
4. UAE
5. Pakistan
6. Australia
7. T urkey
8. USA
9. South Korea
10. Singapore
15
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
t h e 10 l a rge s t a r m s pr oduci ng c om pa n i e s , 2 01 3
Company
1 Lockheed Martin
35 490
2 Boeing
30 700
3 BAE Systems (UK) 26 820
4 Raytheon
21 950
5 Northrop Grumman 20 200
6 General Dynamics
18 660
7 EADS (trans-Europe) 15 740
8 United Technologies 11 900
9 Finmeccanica (Italy) 10 560
10 Thales (France)
10 370
2 981
4 585
275
2 013
1 952
2 357
1 959
5 721
98
761
Deployed Other
Total
warheads warheads inventory
USA ~2 080
5 180
~7 260
Russia ~1 780 ~5 720 ~7 500
UK
150 ~65 ~215
France ~290 ~10 ~300
China
~260 ~260
India
90110 90110
Pakistan
100120 100120
Israel
~80 ~80
North Korea
. .
. .
68
Total ~4 300 ~11 545 ~15 850
All estimates are approximate and are as of
January 2015.
gl ob a l s t o c k s of f i s si l e
m at e r i a l s , 2 014
Materials that can sustain an explosive fission
chain reaction are essential for all types of
nuclear explosive, from first-generation
fission weapons to advanced thermonuclear
weapons. The most common of these fissile
materials are highly enriched uranium (HEU)
and plutonium.
For their nuclear weapons, China, France,
Russia, the UK and the USA have produced
both HEU and plutonium; India, Israel and
North Korea have produced mainly
plutonium; and Pakistan is moving from
mainly HEU to plutonium weapons. All states
with a civilian nuclear enrichment or
reprocessing industry have some capability to
produce fissile materials for weapons.
The International Panel on Fissile
Materials compiles information on global
stocks of fissile materials.
ANNEXES
Arms control and disarmament
c h r onol o gy 2 014 , s e l e c t e d
events
20 Jan. Implementation of the interim Joint
Plan of Action (JPA) agreed between
the E3/EU+3 and Iran begins
1314 Mexico hosts the second
Feb.
International Conference on the
Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear
Weapons
6 Mar. The EU and UN Security Council
hold emergency meetings on the
crisis in Ukraine.
18 Apr. The IAEA says Iran has diluted half
of its higher-enriched uranium
stockpile
12 May Major General Kristin Lund from
Norway becomes the first woman to
command a UN peacekeeping force
23 June The Joint Mission of the OPCW and
the UN announces that the removal
of Syrias chemical weapons material
is complete
17 July Malaysian Airlines flight MH17
crashes in eastern Ukraine
7 Aug. The WHO officially declares the
Ebola outbreak a Public Health
Emergency of International Concern
30 Sep. Bilateral Security Agreement
between the USA and Afghanistan
and a Status of Forces Agreement
between NATO and Afghanistan are
signed.
31 Oct. UN Secretary-General appoints
High-Level Independent Panel on
Peace Operations under the
chairmanship of Jos Ramos-Horta
24 Nov. The UN assesses the number of
foreign terrorist fighters in the Syria
and Iraq conflicts to be over 15000
people from 81 countries
17 Dec. The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) enters
into force
annexes 27
SIPRI DATABASES
SIPRI Military Expenditure Database
Gives consistent time series on the military spending of 172 countries since 1988, allowing
comparison of countries military spending: in local currency, at current prices; in US
dollars, at constant prices and exchange rates; and as a share of GDP.
SIPRI Arms Transfers Database
Shows all international transfers in seven categories of major conventional arms since 1950,
the most comprehensive publicly available source of information on international arms
transfers.
SIPRI Arms Embargoes Database
Gives information on all arms embargoes that have been implemented by an international
organization, such as the EU or UN, or by a group of nations. All embargoes that are in force,
or have been in force since 1998, are included.
SIPRI National Reports Database
Provides links to all publicly accessible national reports on arms exports and is constantly
updated to include links to newly published national reports on arms exports.
SIPRI Multilateral Peace Operations Database
Offers information on all UN and non-UN peace operations conducted since 2000, including
location, dates of deployment and operation, mandate, participating countries, number of
personnel, costs and fatalities.
Access the SIPRI Databases: www.sipri.org/databases
1
More information is available at www.sipriyearbook.org
TRANSLATIONS
SIPRI Yearbook 2015 will be translated into
Chinese by the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA), Beijing
www.cacda.org.cn
Ukrainian by the Razumkov Centre (Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political
Studies, UCEPS), Kyiv
www.razumkov.org.ua
These translations are funded by the Swiss Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection
and Sport. Contact the publishing organizations for further details.
Signalistgatan 9
SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden
Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00
Fax: +46 8 655 97 33
Email: sipri@sipri.org
Internet: www.sipri.org
STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
www.sipriyearbook.org