Taller Evaluación Proyectos

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN
Pgina 1 de 51
Datos del proyecto caso ilustrativo

Capacidad Nominal
Ao
Produccin (en millones de Kg por ao)
Presupuesto de Inversion
Bienes de Capital (Activos fijos depreciables)
OTROS Activos Fjos
Activos diferidos
Capital de trabajo
Total
1650000
Unidades/ao
2014
990000
2015
1059300
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,250,000,000
2,197,325,000
549,250,000
274,625,000
228,800,000
3,250,000,000
Precio venta ($/kg)($ constantes de ao de

inicio)
3350
Ao
2014 al 2023
Inflacion Constante
7.00%
Costo variable $/Kg

Costos fijos por ao
Vlr de rescate
Vlr de rescate
$
$
$
$
Impuesto de renta
2,455
410,000,000
4,000,000,000
2,033,397,169
2016
1133451
2017
1212793
% participacion
67.61%
16.90%
8.45%
7.04%
En $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto

en $ corrientes del ao final del proyecto
en $ constantes de ao inicial del proyecto
33.00%
Prestamo (en millones)

Interes nominal
Interes efectivo
Interes efectivo
Forma de pago
Numero de cuotas en que amortiza
1,462,500,000
12%
Anual / TA
3.0928%
Trimestral vencido
12.96%
EA
Cuota Fija
6
CCPP adi en terminos reales

CCPP ddi en terminos reales
18.00%
12.00%
Tarifa imp de ind. y comercio
0.70%
Cuadro 1
Flujo de caja proyectado para el calculo de la TIR y VPN del proyecto puro antes de impuestos
(En Millones de Pesos Constantes del ao inicial del proyecto)
2013
2014
2015
2016
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Concepto
Ventas netas
Valor de rescate
Total ingresos
Total costo variable
Costos fijos
Total costos
Renta bruta
Inversion total
Recuperacin de inv. en terreno
Recuperacion de inv. en capital de Trabajo
Flujo pp adi
Tir pp adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
3,250,000,000
-3,250,000,000
20.18%
342,133,426
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2017
4,062,855,110
3,316,500,000
2,430,450,000
410,000,000
2,840,450,000
476,050,000
$
$
$
$
$
3,548,655,000
2,600,581,500
410,000,000
3,010,581,500
538,073,500
$
$
$
$
$
3,797,060,850
2,782,622,205
410,000,000
3,192,622,205
604,438,645
$
$
$
$
$
4,062,855,110
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
476,050,000
538,073,500
604,438,645
675,449,350
Cuadro 3
Amortizacion de Inversiones
(En Millones de $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto)
Depreciacin anual
Depreciacin anual (En
(En Millones de $
Millones de $
constantes del ao
corrientes)
inicial del proyecto)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Cuadro 2
Depreciacion por el mtodo de Linea Recta
Fin Ao
2018
1297688
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
256,689,252
239,896,498
224,202,334
209,534,892
195,827,002
183,015,889
171,042,887
159,853,166
149,395,482
139,621,946
Fin Ao
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Amortizacin anual
$
$
$
$
$
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
Pgina 2 de 51
Cuadro 4
Flujo de caja proyectado para el calculo de la TIR y VPN del proyecto puro despues de impuestos
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2016
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Imp. de ind y comercio
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total Costos Variables
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
amortizacion de inversiones
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
deduccin imp de ind y comercio
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
331,236,528 $
312,710,705 $
295,616,921
RLG
$
144,813,472 $
225,362,795 $
308,821,724
Impuesto de renta
$
47,788,446 $
74,369,722 $
101,911,169
Inversin total
$
3,250,000,000
Flujo pp ddi
$
-3,250,000,000 $
405,046,054 $
438,863,193 $
475,948,050
TIR pp ddi
14.03%
VPN(CCPP ddi)
$
354,060,670
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2017
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
41,902,020
209,534,892
28,439,986
279,876,897
395,572,453
130,538,910
516,470,455
Cuadro 5
Flujo de Caja del Prestamo e Interese Deducibles
Fin ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Concepto
Flujo pp adi
prestamo
Pago prestamo
Flujo inv adi
TIR inv adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
cuota en $
corrientes
int + saldo
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,453,287,420
1,228,832,444
975,294,888
688,906,528
365,410,892
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
189,495,796
189,495,796
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
saldo despues del

pago
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,286,584,903
1,087,876,527
863,421,552
609,883,996
323,495,636
-
int deducibles en $
corrientes
Cuota en $
constantes del ao
inicial del proyecto
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
298,284,135
278,770,220
260,532,916
243,488,706
227,559,539
212,672,466
2017
675,449,350
$
$
278,770,220
396,679,130
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2017
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
41,902,020
209,534,892
127,176,551
28,439,986
407,053,448
268,395,902
88,570,648
278,770,220
189,495,796
189,495,796
189,495,796
166,702,516
140,955,917
111,873,336
79,022,532
41,915,257
Cuadro 6
Flujo de caja proyectado para el calculo de la TIR y VPN del inversionista antes de impuestos
2013
2014
2015
2016
$
-3,250,000,000 $
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
1,462,500,000
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
298,284,135
$
-1,787,500,000 $
298,951,126 $
372,560,533 $
306,154,510
26.41%
$
878,256,423
Cuadro 7
Flujo de caja proyectado para el calculo de la TIR y VPN del inversionista despues de impuestos
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2016
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
Amortizacion de inversiones
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
Depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
Int deducibles
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
508,335,402 $
478,223,671 $
450,301,937
RLG
$
-32,285,402 $
59,849,829 $
154,136,708
Impuesto de renta
$
$
19,750,443 $
50,865,114
Prestamo
$
1,462,500,000
Pago prestamo
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
298,284,135

Inversin total
Recuperacion de inv. en capital de trabajo
Flujo inv ddi
Tir Inv ddi
VPN(CCPP ddi)
-3,250,000,000
-1,787,500,000
19.55%
868,085,781
275,735,626
327,969,505
Pgina 3 de 51
228,709,970
279,668,497
2019
1388526
2020
1485723
2021
1650000
2022
1650000
2023
1650000
2018
4,347,254,967
2019
4,651,562,815
2020
4,977,172,212
2021
5,527,500,000
2022
$ 5,527,500,000
$
$
$
$
$
4,347,254,967
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
$
$
$
$
$
4,651,562,815
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
4,977,172,212
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
751,430,805
832,730,961
919,722,128
1,066,750,000
Amortizacin
anual (En Millones
de $ constantes
del ao inicial del
proyecto)
$
$
$
$
$
51,331,776
47,973,622
44,835,161
41,902,020
39,160,766
Pgina 4 de 51
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$ 1,066,750,000
$
$
228,800,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
39,160,766
195,827,002
30,430,785
265,418,552
486,012,252
160,384,043
560,615,977
Pgina 5 de 51
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
52,926,280
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
32,560,940
215,576,829
617,154,132
203,660,864
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
34,840,205
205,883,093
713,839,036
235,566,882
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
38,692,500
198,545,666
868,204,334
286,507,430
$
$
$
$
$
149,395,482
38,692,500
188,087,982
878,662,018
289,958,466
$
$
$
$
$
139,621,946
52,926,280
192,548,226
2,907,598,943
959,507,651
596,509,158
649,315,041
741,550,070
738,099,034
$
$
228,800,000
2,316,513,237
Int deducibles en
$ constantes del
ao inicial del
proyecto
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
154,685,016
127,176,551
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
2018
751,430,805
2019
832,730,961
2020
919,722,128
2021
1,066,750,000
2022
$ 1,066,750,000
2023
3,328,947,169
$
$
260,532,916
490,897,889
$
$
243,488,706
589,242,254
$
$
227,559,539
692,162,589
$
$
212,672,466
854,077,534
$ 1,066,750,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
39,160,766
195,827,002
100,499,620
30,430,785
365,918,173
385,512,632
127,219,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
52,926,280
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
74,545,928
32,560,940
290,122,757
542,608,204
179,060,707
$
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
49,211,261
34,840,205
255,094,354
664,627,774
219,327,165
$
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
24,395,061
38,692,500
222,940,727
843,809,273
278,457,060
149,395,482
139,621,946
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
188,087,982
878,662,018
289,958,466
$
$
$
$
52,926,280
192,548,226
2,907,598,943
959,507,651
260,532,916
243,488,706
227,559,539
212,672,466
333,247,935
377,620,607
437,995,219
536,927,974
738,099,034
Pgina 6 de 51
$
$
228,800,000
2,316,513,237
PESIMISTA
0.15
0.2304
Page 7
PROBABLE
0.12
0.217034
Page 8
OPTIMISTA
0.1
0.1904
Page 9
Pgina 10 de 51

Capacidad Nominal
Ao
OTROS Activos Fjos
Activos diferidos
Capital de trabajo
Total
inicio)
1650000
Unidades/ao
2014
990000
2015
1059300
$
$
$
$
$
3250000000
2,197,325,000
549,250,000
274,625,000
228,800,000
3,250,000,000
3,350
Ao
2014 al 2023
2015
1133451
2016
1212793
% participacion
67.61%
16.90%
8.45%
7.04%
Inflacion Constante
7.00%
Costo variable $/Kg

Costos fijos por ao
Vlr de rescate
Vlr de rescate
$
$
$
$
Impuesto de renta
2,455
410,000,000
4,000,000,000
2,033,397,169

33.00%

Interes nominal
Interes efectivo
Interes efectivo
Forma de pago
1,462,500,000
12%
Anual / TA
3.0928%
Trimestral vencido
12.96%
EA
Cuota Fija
6

18.00%
12.00%
0.70%
Cuadro 1
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Concepto
Ventas netas
Valor de rescate
Total ingresos
Costos fijos
Total costos
Renta bruta
Inversion total
Flujo pp adi
Tir pp adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
3,250,000,000
-3,250,000,000
20.18%
342,133,426
2016
4,062,855,110
3,316,500,000
2,430,450,000
410,000,000
2,840,450,000
476,050,000
$
$
$
$
$
3,548,655,000
2,600,581,500
410,000,000
3,010,581,500
538,073,500
$
$
$
$
$
3,797,060,850
2,782,622,205
410,000,000
3,192,622,205
604,438,645
$
$
$
$
$
4,062,855,110
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
476,050,000
538,073,500
604,438,645
675,449,350
10
Cuadro 3
Depreciacion Suma de Digitos
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
$
$
$
$
$
Cuadro 2
Fin Ao
2018
1297688
Depreciacin anual
(En Millones de $
Millones de $
constantes del ao
corrientes)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
499,377,273
449,439,545
399,501,818
349,564,091
299,626,364
249,688,636
199,750,909
149,813,182
99,875,455
49,937,727
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
466,707,732
392,557,905
326,112,486
266,680,771
213,629,456
166,378,081
124,394,827
87,192,636
54,325,630
25,385,808
Fin Ao
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Amortizacin anual
$
$
$
$
$
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
Pgina 11 de 51
Cuadro 4
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
depeciacion
$
466,707,732 $
392,557,905 $
326,112,486
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
541,255,007 $
465,372,112 $
397,527,073
RLG
$
-65,205,007 $
72,701,388 $
206,911,572
Impuesto de renta
$
$
23,991,458 $
68,280,819
Inversin total
$
3,250,000,000
Flujo pp ddi
$
-3,250,000,000 $
452,834,500 $
489,241,457 $
509,578,400
TIR pp ddi
14.55%
VPN(CCPP ddi)
$
436,335,834
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
41,902,020
266,680,771
28,439,986
337,022,777
338,426,574
111,680,769
535,328,595
Cuadro 5
Fin ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Concepto
Flujo pp adi
prestamo
Pago prestamo
Flujo inv adi
TIR inv adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
cuota en $
corrientes
int + saldo
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,453,287,420
1,228,832,444
975,294,888
688,906,528
365,410,892
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
189,495,796
189,495,796
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
saldo despues del

pago
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,286,584,903
1,087,876,527
863,421,552
609,883,996
323,495,636
-
int deducibles en $
corrientes
Cuota en $
constantes del ao
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
298,284,135
278,770,220
260,532,916
243,488,706
227,559,539
212,672,466
2016
675,449,350
$
$
127,176,551
548,272,799
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
41,902,020
266,680,771
127,176,551
28,439,986
464,199,328
211,250,022
69,712,507
127,176,551
189,495,796
189,495,796
189,495,796
166,702,516
140,955,917
111,873,336
79,022,532
41,915,257
Cuadro 6
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
-3,250,000,000 $
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
1,462,500,000
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
-1,787,500,000 $
298,951,126 $
372,560,533 $
449,753,629
30.01%
$
1,282,456,335
Cuadro 7
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
Depeciacion
$
466,707,732 $
392,557,905 $
326,112,486
Int deducibles
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
718,353,882 $
630,885,079 $
552,212,088
RLG
$
-242,303,882 $
-92,811,579 $
52,226,557
Impuesto de renta
$
$
$
17,234,764
Prestamo
$
1,462,500,000
Pago prestamo
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016

Inversin total
Flujo inv ddi
Tir Inv ddi
VPN(CCPP ddi)
-3,250,000,000
-1,787,500,000
24.14%
1,414,944,561
275,735,626
347,719,948
Pgina 12 de 51
405,939,440
450,120,306
2019
1388526
2020
1485723
2021
1650000
2022
1650000
2023
1650000
2018
4,347,254,967
2019
4,651,562,815
2020
4,977,172,212
2021
5,527,500,000
2022
$ 5,527,500,000
$
$
$
$
$
4,347,254,967
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
$
$
$
$
$
4,651,562,815
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
4,977,172,212
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
751,430,805
832,730,961
919,722,128
1,066,750,000
Amortizacin
anual (En Millones
de $ constantes
del ao inicial del
proyecto)
$
$
$
$
$
51,331,776
47,973,622
44,835,161
41,902,020
39,160,766
Pgina 13 de 51
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$ 1,066,750,000
$
$
228,800,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
39,160,766
213,629,456
30,430,785
283,221,007
468,209,798
154,509,233
566,490,787
Pgina 14 de 51
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
166,378,081
32,560,940
198,939,021
633,791,940
209,151,340
$
$
$
$
$
124,394,827
34,840,205
159,235,033
760,487,096
250,960,742
$
$
$
$
$
87,192,636
38,692,500
125,885,136
940,864,864
310,485,405
$
$
$
$
$
54,325,630
38,692,500
93,018,130
973,731,870
321,331,517
$
$
$
$
$
25,385,808
38,692,500
64,078,308
3,036,068,860
1,001,902,724
591,018,681
633,921,181
717,572,095
706,725,983
$
$
228,800,000
2,288,351,945
Int deducibles en
$ constantes del
ao inicial del
proyecto
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
154,685,016
127,176,551
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
2018
751,430,805
2019
832,730,961
2020
919,722,128
2021
1,066,750,000
2022
$ 1,066,750,000
2023
3,328,947,169
$
$
100,499,620
650,931,184
$
$
74,545,928
758,185,033
$
$
49,211,261
870,510,867
$
$
24,395,061
1,042,354,939
$ 1,066,750,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
39,160,766
213,629,456
100,499,620
30,430,785
383,720,627
367,710,177
121,344,358
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
166,378,081
74,545,928
32,560,940
273,484,948
559,246,013
184,551,184
$
$
$
$
$
$
124,394,827
49,211,261
34,840,205
208,446,294
711,275,834
234,721,025
$
$
$
$
$
$
87,192,636
24,395,061
38,692,500
150,280,197
916,469,803
302,435,035
54,325,630
25,385,808
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
93,018,130
973,731,870
321,331,517
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
64,078,308
3,036,068,860
1,001,902,724
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
499,156,041
541,072,910
600,949,636
701,227,404
706,725,983
Pgina 15 de 51
$
$
228,800,000
2,288,351,945
Pgina 16 de 51

Capacidad Nominal
Ao
1650000
Unidades/ao
2014
990000
2015
1059300
OTROS Activos Fjos
Activos diferidos
Capital de trabajo
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,250,000,000
2,197,325,000
549,250,000
274,625,000
228,800,000
3,250,000,000

inicio)
3,350
Ao
2014 al 2023
2015
1133451
2016
1212793
% participacion
67.61%
16.90%
8.45%
7.04%
Inflacion Constante
7.00%
Costo variable $/Kg

Costos fijos por ao
Vlr de rescate
Vlr de rescate
$
$
$
$
Impuesto de renta
2,455
410,000,000
4,000,000,000
2,033,397,169

33.00%

Interes nominal
Interes efectivo
Interes efectivo
Forma de pago
1,462,500,000
12.0000%
Anual / TA
3.0928%
Trimestral vencido
12.96%
EA
Cuota Fija
6

18.00%
12.00%
0.70%
Cuadro 1
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Concepto
Ventas netas
Valor de rescate
Total ingresos
Costos fijos
Total costos
Renta bruta
Inversion total
Flujo pp adi
Tir pp adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
3,250,000,000
-3,250,000,000
20.18%
342,133,426
2016
4,062,855,110
3,316,500,000
2,430,450,000
410,000,000
2,840,450,000
476,050,000
$
$
$
$
$
3,548,655,000
2,600,581,500
410,000,000
3,010,581,500
538,073,500
$
$
$
$
$
3,797,060,850
2,782,622,205
410,000,000
3,192,622,205
604,438,645
$
$
$
$
$
4,062,855,110
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
476,050,000
538,073,500
604,438,645
675,449,350
10
Cuadro 3
Depreciacion LINEA RECTA
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
$
$
$
$
$
Cuadro 2
Fin Ao
2018
1297688
Depreciacin anual
(En Millones de $
Millones de $
constantes del ao
corrientes)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
256,689,252
239,896,498
224,202,334
209,534,892
195,827,002
183,015,889
171,042,887
159,853,166
149,395,482
139,621,946
Fin Ao
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Amortizacin anual
$
$
$
$
$
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
Pgina 17 de 51
Cuadro 4
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
331,236,528 $
312,710,705 $
295,616,921
RLG
$
144,813,472 $
225,362,795 $
308,821,724
Impuesto de renta
$
47,788,446 $
74,369,722 $
101,911,169
Inversin total
$
3,250,000,000
Flujo pp ddi
$
-3,250,000,000 $
405,046,054 $
438,863,193 $
475,948,050
TIR pp ddi
14.04%
VPN(CCPP ddi)
$
357,131,211
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
41,902,020
209,534,892
28,439,986
279,876,897
395,572,453
130,538,910
516,470,455
Cuadro 5
Fin ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Concepto
Flujo pp adi
prestamo
Pago prestamo
Flujo inv adi
TIR inv adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
cuota en $
corrientes
int + saldo
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,376,663,163
1,101,330,530
825,997,898
550,665,265
275,332,633
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
189,495,796
189,495,796
243,750,000
243,750,000
243,750,000
243,750,000
243,750,000
243,750,000
saldo despues del

pago
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,218,750,000
975,000,000
731,250,000
487,500,000
243,750,000
-
int deducibles en $
corrientes
Cuota en $
constantes del ao
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
353,657,623
306,426,904
263,862,303
225,555,442
191,131,402
160,246,099
2016
675,449,350
$
$
120,471,196
554,978,154
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
41,902,020
209,534,892
120,471,196
28,439,986
400,348,093
275,101,257
90,783,415
120,471,196
189,495,796
189,495,796
189,495,796
157,913,163
126,330,530
94,747,898
63,165,265
31,582,633
Cuadro 6
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
-3,250,000,000 $
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
1,462,500,000
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
-1,787,500,000 $
298,951,126 $
372,560,533 $
449,753,629
30.15%
$
1,299,399,982
Cuadro 7
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
Depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
Int deducibles
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
508,335,402 $
478,223,671 $
450,301,937
RLG
$
-32,285,402 $
59,849,829 $
154,136,708
Impuesto de renta
$
$
19,750,443 $
50,865,114
Prestamo
$
1,462,500,000
Pago prestamo
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016

Inversin total
Flujo inv ddi
Tir Inv ddi
VPN(CCPP ddi)
-3,250,000,000
-1,787,500,000
23.96%
1,418,137,706
275,735,626
327,969,505
Pgina 18 de 51
372,309,090
435,754,754
2019
1388526
2020
1485723
2021
1650000
2022
1650000
2023
1650000
2018
4,347,254,967
2019
4,651,562,815
2020
4,977,172,212
2021
5,527,500,000
2022
$ 5,527,500,000
$
$
$
$
$
4,347,254,967
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
$
$
$
$
$
4,651,562,815
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
4,977,172,212
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
751,430,805
832,730,961
919,722,128
1,066,750,000
Amortizacin
anual (En Millones
de $ constantes
del ao inicial del
proyecto)
$
$
$
$
$
51,331,776
47,973,622
44,835,161
41,902,020
39,160,766
Pgina 19 de 51
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$ 1,066,750,000
$
$
228,800,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
39,160,766
195,827,002
30,430,785
265,418,552
486,012,252
160,384,043
560,615,977
Pgina 20 de 51
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
32,560,940
215,576,829
617,154,132
203,660,864
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
34,840,205
205,883,093
713,839,036
235,566,882
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
38,692,500
198,545,666
868,204,334
286,507,430
$
$
$
$
$
149,395,482
38,692,500
188,087,982
878,662,018
289,958,466
$
$
$
$
$
139,621,946
38,692,500
178,314,446
2,921,832,723
964,204,799
596,509,158
649,315,041
741,550,070
738,099,034
$
$
228,800,000
2,326,049,870
Int deducibles en
$ constantes del
ao inicial del
proyecto
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
154,685,016
120,471,196
90,071,922
63,134,525
39,336,153
18,381,380
2018
751,430,805
2019
832,730,961
2020
919,722,128
2021
1,066,750,000
2022
$ 1,066,750,000
2023
3,328,947,169
$
$
90,071,922
661,358,882
$
$
63,134,525
769,596,436
$
$
39,336,153
880,385,976
$
$
18,381,380
1,048,368,620
$ 1,066,750,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
39,160,766
195,827,002
90,071,922
30,430,785
355,490,474
395,940,330
130,660,309
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
63,134,525
32,560,940
278,711,354
554,019,607
182,826,470
$
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
39,336,153
34,840,205
245,219,245
674,502,883
222,585,951
$
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
18,381,380
38,692,500
216,927,045
849,822,955
280,441,575
149,395,482
139,621,946
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
188,087,982
878,662,018
289,958,466
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
178,314,446
2,921,832,723
964,204,799
90,071,922
63,134,525
39,336,153
18,381,380
500,267,789
554,209,026
622,959,819
729,234,545
738,099,034
Pgina 21 de 51
$
$
228,800,000
2,326,049,870
Pgina 22 de 51

Capacidad Nominal
Ao
OTROS Activos Fjos
Activos diferidos
Capital de trabajo
Total
inicio)
1650000
Unidades/ao
2014
990000
2015
1059300
5,560,162,826
$
$
$
$
$
3,759,226,087
939,667,518
469,833,759
391,435,463
5,560,162,826
3,350
Ao
2014 al 2023
2015
1133451
2016
1212793
67.61%
16.90%
8.45%
7.04%
Inflacion Constante
7.00%
Costo variable $/Kg

Costos fijos por ao
Vlr de rescate
Vlr de rescate
$
$
$
$
Impuesto de renta
2,455
410,000,000
4,000,000,000
2,033,397,169

33.00%

Interes nominal
Interes efectivo
Interes efectivo
Forma de pago
2,502,073,272
12%
Anual / TA
3.0928%
Trimestral vencido
12.96%
EA
Cuota Fija
6

18.00%
12.00%
0.70%
Cuadro 1
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Concepto
Ventas netas
Valor de rescate
Total ingresos
Costos fijos
Total costos
Renta bruta
Inversion total
Flujo pp adi
Tir pp adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
5,560,162,826
-5,560,162,826
9.80%
-1,936,955,542
$
$
$
$
$
3,316,500,000
2,430,450,000
410,000,000
2,840,450,000
476,050,000
$
$
$
$
$
3,548,655,000
2,600,581,500
410,000,000
3,010,581,500
538,073,500
$
$
$
$
$
3,797,060,850
2,782,622,205
410,000,000
3,192,622,205
604,438,645
476,050,000
538,073,500
604,438,645
Cuadro 2
Fin Ao
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Cuadro 3
Depreciacin anual
(En Millones de $
Millones de $ corrientes) constantes del ao
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
469,889,360
469,889,360
469,889,360
469,889,360
469,889,360
469,889,360
469,889,360
469,889,360
469,889,360
469,889,360
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
439,148,935
410,419,565
383,569,687
358,476,343
335,024,620
313,107,121
292,623,478
273,479,886
255,588,678
238,867,924
Fin Ao
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Pgina 23 de 51
Cuadro 4
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
87,819,394 $
82,074,200 $
76,704,860
depeciacion
$
439,148,935 $
410,419,565 $
383,569,687
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
550,183,829 $
517,334,351 $
486,853,973
RLG
$
-74,133,829 $
20,739,149 $
117,584,672
Impuesto de renta
$
$
6,843,919 $
38,802,942
Inversin total
$
5,560,162,826
Flujo pp ddi
$
-5,560,162,826 $
452,834,500 $
506,388,996 $
539,056,277
TIR pp ddi
5.85%
VPN(CCPP ddi)
$
-1,612,263,715
Cuadro 5
Fin ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Concepto
Flujo pp adi
prestamo
Pago prestamo
Flujo inv adi
TIR inv adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
cuota en $
corrientes
int + saldo
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2,502,073,272
2,826,266,342
2,826,266,342
2,826,266,342
2,486,312,211
2,102,310,300
1,668,553,348
1,178,594,605
625,152,018
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
324,193,070
324,193,070
625,152,018
625,152,018
625,152,018
625,152,018
625,152,018
625,152,018
saldo despues del

pago
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2,502,073,272
2,502,073,272
2,502,073,272
2,201,114,324
1,861,160,193
1,477,158,282
1,043,401,330
553,442,587
-
int deducibles en $
corrientes
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
324,193,070
324,193,070
324,193,070
285,197,887
241,150,107
191,395,066
135,193,275
71,709,431
Cuadro 6
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
-5,560,162,826 $
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
2,502,073,272
$
302,984,178 $
283,162,783 $
264,638,115
$
-3,058,089,554 $
173,065,822 $
254,910,717 $
339,800,530
15.98%
$
-328,232,932
Cuadro 7
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
87,819,394 $
82,074,200 $
76,704,860
Depeciacion
$
439,148,935 $
410,419,565 $
383,569,687
Int deducibles
$
302,984,178 $
283,162,783 $
264,638,115
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
853,168,007 $
800,497,134 $
751,492,088
RLG
$
-377,118,007 $
-262,423,634 $
-147,053,443
Impuesto de renta
$
$
$
Prestamo
$
2,502,073,272
Pago prestamo
$
302,984,178 $
283,162,783 $
264,638,115
$
$
-5,560,162,826
-3,058,089,554
12.00%
-
Inversion
3,250 $
5,560 $
VPN
868
-
149,850,322
V P N e n M illo n e s
Inversin total
Flujo inv ddi
Tir Inv ddi
VPN(CCPP ddi)
Pgina 24 de 51
230,070,132
313,221,104
$ 1,000
$ 800
$ 868
$ 600
$ 400
$ 200
$$ 3,250
Inversion Inicial -
$$ 5,560
Inversion Critica
2018
1297688
2019
1388526
2020
1485723
2021
1650000
2022
1650000
Pgina 25 de 51
2023
1650000
de impuestos
2016
4,062,855,110
2018
4,347,254,967
2019
4,651,562,815
2020
4,977,172,212
2021
5,527,500,000
2022
$ 5,527,500,000
$
$
$
$
$
4,062,855,110
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
$
$
$
$
$
4,347,254,967
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
$
$
$
$
$
4,651,562,815
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
4,977,172,212
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
675,449,350
751,430,805
832,730,961
919,722,128
1,066,750,000
Cuadro 3
n Millones de $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto)
Amortizacin
anual (En Millones
Amortizacin anual
de $ constantes
del ao inicial del
proyecto)
$
$
$
$
$
93,966,752
93,966,752
93,966,752
93,966,752
93,966,752
$
$
$
$
$
87,819,394
82,074,200
76,704,860
71,686,785
66,996,995
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$ 1,066,750,000
$
$
391,435,463
3,491,582,632
Pgina 26 de 51
s de impuestos
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
71,686,785
358,476,343
28,439,986
458,603,114
216,846,236
71,559,258
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
66,996,995
335,024,620
30,430,785
432,452,400
318,978,405
105,262,874
575,450,106
615,737,146
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
313,107,121
32,560,940
345,668,061
487,062,900
160,730,757
$
$
$
$
$
292,623,478
34,840,205
327,463,683
592,258,445
195,445,287
$
$
$
$
$
273,479,886
38,692,500
312,172,386
754,577,614
249,010,613
$
$
$
$
$
255,588,678
38,692,500
294,281,178
772,468,822
254,914,711
$
$
$
$
$
238,867,924
38,692,500
277,560,424
2,822,586,745
931,453,626
639,439,264
689,436,636
779,046,887
773,142,789
$
$
391,435,463
2,521,436,506
s
Cuota en $
constantes del ao
Int deducibles en
$ constantes del
ao inicial del
proyecto
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
302,984,178
283,162,783
510,310,265
476,925,481
445,724,749
416,565,186
389,313,258
363,844,166
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
###
302,984,178
283,162,783
264,638,115
217,576,103
171,936,693
127,534,614
84,191,577
41,735,542
2016
675,449,350
2018
751,430,805
2019
832,730,961
2020
919,722,128
2021
1,066,750,000
2022
$ 1,066,750,000
2023
3,491,582,632
$
$
217,576,103
457,873,248
$
$
171,936,693
579,494,111
$
$
127,534,614
705,196,347
$
$
84,191,577
835,530,551
$
$
41,735,542
1,025,014,458
$ 1,066,750,000
3,491,582,632
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
71,686,785
358,476,343
217,576,103
28,439,986
676,179,217
-729,867
-
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
66,996,995
335,024,620
171,936,693
30,430,785
604,389,093
147,041,711
48,523,765
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
313,107,121
127,534,614
32,560,940
473,202,675
359,528,286
118,644,334
$
$
$
$
$
$
292,623,478
84,191,577
34,840,205
411,655,261
508,066,868
167,662,066
$
$
$
$
$
$
273,479,886
41,735,542
38,692,500
353,907,928
712,842,072
235,237,884
255,588,678
238,867,924
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
294,281,178
772,468,822
254,914,711
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
277,560,424
2,822,586,745
931,453,626
217,576,103
171,936,693
127,534,614
84,191,577
41,735,542
de impuestos
de impuestos
429,433,262
nversion Inicial -
$$ 5,560
Inversion Critica
500,539,562
553,991,073
633,028,279
751,084,074
Pgina 27 de 51
773,142,789
$
$
391,435,463
2,521,436,506
Pgina 28 de 51

Capacidad Nominal
Ao
1650000
Unidades/ao
2014
990000
2015
1059300
OTROS Activos Fjos
Activos diferidos
Capital de trabajo
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,250,000,000
2,197,325,000
549,250,000
274,625,000
228,800,000
3,250,000,000

inicio)
3,350
Ao
2014 al 2023
2015
1133451
2016
1212793
% participacion
67.61%
16.90%
8.45%
7.04%
Inflacion Constante
7.00%
Costo variable $/Kg

Costos fijos por ao
Vlr de rescate
Vlr de rescate
2,710 En $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto

410,000,000 En $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto
4,000,000,000 en $ corrientes del ao final del proyecto
2,033,397,169 en $ constantes de ao inicial del proyecto
$
$
$
Impuesto de renta
33.00%

Interes nominal
Interes efectivo
Interes efectivo
Forma de pago
1,462,500,000
12.0000%
Anual / TA
3.0928%
Trimestral vencido
12.96%
EA
Cuota Fija
6

18.00%
12.00%
0.70%
Cuadro 1
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Concepto
Ventas netas
Valor de rescate
Total ingresos
Costos fijos
Total costos
Renta bruta
Inversion total
Flujo pp adi
Tir pp adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
3,250,000,000
-3,250,000,000
10.81%
-1,084,062,870
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2016
4,062,855,110
3,316,500,000
2,683,060,783
410,000,000
3,093,060,783
223,439,217
$
$
$
$
$
3,548,655,000
2,870,875,038
410,000,000
3,280,875,038
267,779,962
$
$
$
$
$
3,797,060,850
3,071,836,291
410,000,000
3,481,836,291
315,224,559
$
$
$
$
$
4,062,855,110
3,286,864,831
410,000,000
3,696,864,831
365,990,278
223,439,217
267,779,962
315,224,559
365,990,278
Cuadro 3
Depreciacin anual
(En Millones de $
Millones de $
constantes del ao
corrientes)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Cuadro 2
Fin Ao
2018
1297688
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
256,689,252
239,896,498
224,202,334
209,534,892
195,827,002
183,015,889
171,042,887
159,853,166
149,395,482
139,621,946
Fin Ao
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Amortizacin anual
$
$
$
$
$
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
Pgina 29 de 51
Cuadro 4
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,683,060,783 $
2,870,875,038 $
3,071,836,291
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
3,093,060,783 $
3,280,875,038 $
3,481,836,291
Renta bruta
$
223,439,217 $
267,779,962 $
315,224,559
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
331,236,528 $
312,710,705 $
295,616,921
RLG
$
-107,797,311 $
-44,930,743 $
19,607,638
Impuesto de renta
$
$
$
6,470,521
Inversin total
$
3,250,000,000
Flujo pp ddi
$
-3,250,000,000 $
200,223,717 $
242,939,377 $
282,174,613
TIR pp ddi
6.50%
VPN(CCPP ddi)
$
-919,143,091
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
3,286,864,831
410,000,000
3,696,864,831
365,990,278
41,902,020
209,534,892
28,439,986
279,876,897
86,113,381
28,417,416
309,132,877
Cuadro 5
Fin ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Concepto
Flujo pp adi
prestamo
Pago prestamo
Flujo inv adi
TIR inv adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
cuota en $
corrientes
int + saldo
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,453,287,420
1,228,832,444
975,294,888
688,906,528
365,410,892
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
189,495,796
189,495,796
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
saldo despues del

pago
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,286,584,903
1,087,876,527
863,421,552
609,883,996
323,495,636
-
int deducibles en $
corrientes
Cuota en $
constantes del ao
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
298,284,135
278,770,220
260,532,916
243,488,706
227,559,539
212,672,466
2016
365,990,278
$
$
127,176,551
238,813,727
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
3,286,864,831
410,000,000
3,696,864,831
365,990,278
41,902,020
209,534,892
127,176,551
28,439,986
407,053,448
-41,063,170
-
127,176,551
189,495,796
189,495,796
189,495,796
166,702,516
140,955,917
111,873,336
79,022,532
41,915,257
Cuadro 6
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
-3,250,000,000 $
223,439,217 $
267,779,962 $
315,224,559
$
1,462,500,000
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
-1,787,500,000 $
46,340,342 $
102,266,995 $
160,539,543
16.64%
$
-143,739,961
Cuadro 7
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,683,060,783 $
2,870,875,038 $
3,071,836,291
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
3,093,060,783 $
3,280,875,038 $
3,481,836,291
Renta bruta
$
223,439,217 $
267,779,962 $
315,224,559
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
Depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
Int deducibles
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
508,335,402 $
478,223,671 $
450,301,937
RLG
$
-284,896,186 $
-210,443,710 $
-135,077,378
Impuesto de renta
$
$
$
Prestamo
$
1,462,500,000
Pago prestamo
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
$
-3,250,000,000
-1,787,500,000
12.00%
0.00
Costo Variable Unitario

2,455 $
2,710 $
VPN
868
-
23,124,842
Inversin total
Flujo inv ddi
Tir Inv ddi
VPN(CCPP ddi)
77,426,410
Pgina 30 de 51
133,960,118
210,373,741
$ 1,000
$ 900
$ 868
$ 800
$ 700
$ 600
$ 500
$ 400
$ 300
$ 200
$ 100
$$$ 2,455
$ 2,710
Costo Variable Inicial - Costo Variable Critico
2019
1388526
2020
1485723
2021
1650000
2022
1650000
2023
1650000
2018
4,347,254,967
2019
4,651,562,815
2020
4,977,172,212
2021
5,527,500,000
2022
$ 5,527,500,000
$
$
$
$
$
4,347,254,967
3,516,945,369
410,000,000
3,926,945,369
420,309,598
$
$
$
$
$
4,651,562,815
3,763,131,545
410,000,000
4,173,131,545
478,431,270
$
$
$
$
$
4,977,172,212
4,026,550,753
410,000,000
4,436,550,753
540,621,458
$
$
$
$
$
5,527,500,000
4,471,767,972
410,000,000
4,881,767,972
645,732,028
420,309,598
478,431,270
540,621,458
645,732,028
Amortizacin
anual (En Millones
de $ constantes
del ao inicial del
proyecto)
$
$
$
$
$
51,331,776
47,973,622
44,835,161
41,902,020
39,160,766
Pgina 31 de 51
$ 5,527,500,000
$ 4,471,767,972
$
410,000,000
$ 4,881,767,972
$
645,732,028
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
4,471,767,972
410,000,000
4,881,767,972
2,679,129,196
$
$
228,800,000
2,907,929,196
645,732,028
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,516,945,369
410,000,000
3,926,945,369
420,309,598
39,160,766
195,827,002
30,430,785
265,418,552
154,891,045
51,114,045
338,764,768
Pgina 32 de 51
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,763,131,545
410,000,000
4,173,131,545
478,431,270
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
4,026,550,753
410,000,000
4,436,550,753
540,621,458
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,471,767,972
410,000,000
4,881,767,972
645,732,028
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,471,767,972
410,000,000
4,881,767,972
645,732,028
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,471,767,972
410,000,000
4,881,767,972
2,679,129,196
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
32,560,940
215,576,829
262,854,441
86,741,965
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
34,840,205
205,883,093
334,738,366
110,463,661
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
38,692,500
198,545,666
447,186,362
147,571,499
$
$
$
$
$
149,395,482
38,692,500
188,087,982
457,644,046
151,022,535
$
$
$
$
$
139,621,946
38,692,500
178,314,446
2,500,814,751
825,268,868
359,128,364
395,317,592
459,468,028
456,016,993
$
$
228,800,000
2,043,967,829
Int deducibles en
$ constantes del
ao inicial del
proyecto
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
154,685,016
127,176,551
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
2018
420,309,598
2019
478,431,270
2020
540,621,458
2021
645,732,028
2022
645,732,028
2023
2,907,929,196
$
$
100,499,620
319,809,977
$
$
74,545,928
403,885,342
$
$
49,211,261
491,410,197
$
$
24,395,061
621,336,967
645,732,028
2,907,929,196
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,516,945,369
410,000,000
3,926,945,369
420,309,598
39,160,766
195,827,002
100,499,620
30,430,785
365,918,173
54,391,425
17,949,170
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,763,131,545
410,000,000
4,173,131,545
478,431,270
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
4,026,550,753
410,000,000
4,436,550,753
540,621,458
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,471,767,972
410,000,000
4,881,767,972
645,732,028
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,471,767,972
410,000,000
4,881,767,972
645,732,028
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,471,767,972
410,000,000
4,881,767,972
2,679,129,196
$
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
74,545,928
32,560,940
290,122,757
188,308,513
62,141,809
$
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
49,211,261
34,840,205
255,094,354
285,527,104
94,223,944
$
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
24,395,061
38,692,500
222,940,727
422,791,301
139,521,129
149,395,482
139,621,946
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
188,087,982
457,644,046
151,022,535
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
178,314,446
2,500,814,751
825,268,868
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
271,430,022
$$ 2,710
ariable Inicial - Costo Variable Critico
309,182,593
362,346,047
443,123,337
456,016,993
Pgina 33 de 51
$
$
228,800,000
2,043,967,829
Pgina 34 de 51

Capacidad Nominal
Ao
OTROS Activos Fjos
Activos diferidos
Capital de trabajo
Total
1650000
Unidades/ao
2014
990000
2015
1059300
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,250,000,000
2,197,325,000
549,250,000
274,625,000
228,800,000
3,250,000,000

inicio)
3093
Ao
2014 al 2023
Inflacion Constante
7.00%
Costo variable $/Kg

Costos fijos por ao
Vlr de rescate
Vlr de rescate
$
$
$
$
Impuesto de renta
2,455
410,000,000
4,000,000,000
2,033,397,169
2015
1133451
2016
1212793
% participacion
67.61%
16.90%
8.45%
7.04%

33.00%

Interes nominal
Interes efectivo
Interes efectivo
Forma de pago
1,462,500,000
12.0000%
Anual / TA
3.0928%
Trimestral vencido
12.96%
EA
Cuota Fija
6

18.00%
12.00%
0.70%
Cuadro 1
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
3,062,108,476 $
3,276,456,069 $
3,505,807,994
Concepto
Ventas netas
Valor de rescate
Total ingresos
Costos fijos
Total costos
Renta bruta
Inversion total
Flujo pp adi
Tir pp adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
3,250,000,000
-3,250,000,000
10.74%
-1,094,116,620
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2016
3,751,214,554
3,062,108,476
2,430,450,000
410,000,000
2,840,450,000
221,658,476
$
$
$
$
$
3,276,456,069
2,600,581,500
410,000,000
3,010,581,500
265,874,569
$
$
$
$
$
3,505,807,994
2,782,622,205
410,000,000
3,192,622,205
313,185,789
$
$
$
$
$
3,751,214,554
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
363,808,794
221,658,476
265,874,569
313,185,789
363,808,794
Cuadro 3
Depreciacin anual
(En Millones de $
Millones de $
constantes del ao
corrientes)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Cuadro 2
Fin Ao
2018
1297688
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
256,689,252
239,896,498
224,202,334
209,534,892
195,827,002
183,015,889
171,042,887
159,853,166
149,395,482
139,621,946
Fin Ao
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Amortizacin anual
$
$
$
$
$
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
Pgina 35 de 51
Cuadro 4
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,062,108,476 $
3,276,456,069 $
3,505,807,994
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,062,108,476 $
3,276,456,069 $
3,505,807,994
$
21,434,759 $
22,935,192 $
24,540,656
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
221,658,476 $
265,874,569 $
313,185,789
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
$
21,434,759 $
22,935,192 $
24,540,656
Total deducciones
$
329,455,787 $
310,805,312 $
293,578,151
RLG
$
-107,797,311 $
-44,930,743 $
19,607,638
Impuesto de renta
$
$
$
6,470,521
Inversin total
$
3,250,000,000
Flujo pp ddi
$
-3,250,000,000 $
200,223,717 $
242,939,377 $
282,174,613
TIR pp ddi
6.50%
VPN(CCPP ddi)
$
-919,143,091
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
3,751,214,554
3,751,214,554
26,258,502
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
363,808,794
41,902,020
209,534,892
26,258,502
277,695,413
86,113,381
28,417,416
309,132,877
Cuadro 5
Fin ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Concepto
Flujo pp adi
prestamo
Pago prestamo
Flujo inv adi
TIR inv adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
cuota en $
corrientes
int + saldo
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,453,287,420
1,228,832,444
975,294,888
688,906,528
365,410,892
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
189,495,796
189,495,796
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
saldo despues del

pago
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,286,584,903
1,087,876,527
863,421,552
609,883,996
323,495,636
-
int deducibles en $
corrientes
Cuota en $
constantes del ao
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
298,284,135
278,770,220
260,532,916
243,488,706
227,559,539
212,672,466
2016
363,808,794
$
$
127,176,551
236,632,243
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
3,751,214,554
3,751,214,554
26,258,502
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
363,808,794
41,902,020
209,534,892
127,176,551
26,258,502
404,871,965
-41,063,170
-
127,176,551
189,495,796
189,495,796
189,495,796
166,702,516
140,955,917
111,873,336
79,022,532
41,915,257
Cuadro 6
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
-3,250,000,000 $
221,658,476 $
265,874,569 $
313,185,789
$
1,462,500,000
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
-1,787,500,000 $
44,559,602 $
100,361,603 $
158,500,773
16.55%
$
-153,793,711
Cuadro 7
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
$
3,062,108,476 $
3,276,456,069 $
3,505,807,994
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,062,108,476 $
3,276,456,069 $
3,505,807,994
$
21,434,759 $
22,935,192 $
24,540,656
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
221,658,476 $
265,874,569 $
313,185,789
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
Depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
Int deducibles
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
21,434,759 $
22,935,192 $
24,540,656
Total deducciones
$
506,554,662 $
476,318,279 $
448,263,167
RLG
$
-284,896,186 $
-210,443,710 $
-135,077,378
Impuesto de renta
$
$
$
Prestamo
$
1,462,500,000
Pago prestamo
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
$
-3,250,000,000
-1,787,500,000
12.00%
0.00
Precio Unitario
3,093 $
3,350 $
VPN
868
23,124,842
Inversin total
Flujo inv ddi
Tir Inv ddi
VPN(CCPP ddi)
77,426,410
$ 1,000
Pgina 36 de 51
133,960,118
210,373,741
$ 868
$ 800
$ 600
$ 400
$ 200
$$$ 3,093
$ 3,350
Precio Unitario Critico- Precio Unitario Inicial
2019
1388526
2020
1485723
2021
1650000
2022
1650000
2023
1650000
2018
4,013,799,572
2019
4,294,765,543
2020
4,595,399,130
2021
5,103,514,127
2022
$ 5,103,514,127
$
$
$
$
$
4,013,799,572
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
417,975,410
$
$
$
$
$
4,294,765,543
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
475,933,689
$
$
$
$
$
4,595,399,130
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
537,949,047
$
$
$
$
$
5,103,514,127
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
642,764,127
417,975,410
475,933,689
537,949,047
642,764,127
Amortizacin
anual (En Millones
de $ constantes
del ao inicial del
proyecto)
$
$
$
$
$
51,331,776
47,973,622
44,835,161
41,902,020
39,160,766
Pgina 37 de 51
$ 5,103,514,127
$ 4,050,750,000
$
410,000,000
$ 4,460,750,000
$
642,764,127
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,103,514,127
2,033,397,169
7,136,911,295
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
2,676,161,295
$
$
228,800,000
2,904,961,295
642,764,127
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,013,799,572
4,013,799,572
28,096,597
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
417,975,410
39,160,766
195,827,002
28,096,597
263,084,365
154,891,045
51,114,045
338,764,768
Pgina 38 de 51
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,294,765,543
4,294,765,543
30,063,359
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
475,933,689
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,595,399,130
4,595,399,130
32,167,794
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
537,949,047
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,103,514,127
5,103,514,127
35,724,599
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
642,764,127
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,103,514,127
5,103,514,127
35,724,599
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
642,764,127
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,103,514,127
2,033,397,169
7,136,911,295
35,724,599
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
2,676,161,295
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
30,063,359
213,079,248
262,854,441
86,741,965
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
32,167,794
203,210,681
334,738,366
110,463,661
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
35,724,599
195,577,765
447,186,362
147,571,499
$
$
$
$
$
149,395,482
35,724,599
185,120,081
457,644,046
151,022,535
$
$
$
$
$
139,621,946
35,724,599
175,346,545
2,500,814,751
825,268,868
359,128,364
395,317,592
459,468,028
456,016,993
$
$
228,800,000
2,043,967,829
Int deducibles en
$ constantes del
ao inicial del
proyecto
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
154,685,016
127,176,551
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
2018
417,975,410
2019
475,933,689
2020
537,949,047
2021
642,764,127
2022
642,764,127
2023
2,904,961,295
$
$
100,499,620
317,475,789
$
$
74,545,928
401,387,761
$
$
49,211,261
488,737,785
$
$
24,395,061
618,369,066
642,764,127
2,904,961,295
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,013,799,572
4,013,799,572
28,096,597
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
417,975,410
39,160,766
195,827,002
100,499,620
28,096,597
363,583,985
54,391,425
17,949,170
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,294,765,543
4,294,765,543
30,063,359
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
475,933,689
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,595,399,130
4,595,399,130
32,167,794
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
537,949,047
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,103,514,127
5,103,514,127
35,724,599
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
642,764,127
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,103,514,127
5,103,514,127
35,724,599
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
642,764,127
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,103,514,127
2,033,397,169
7,136,911,295
35,724,599
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
2,676,161,295
$
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
74,545,928
30,063,359
287,625,176
188,308,513
62,141,809
$
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
49,211,261
32,167,794
252,421,943
285,527,104
94,223,944
$
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
24,395,061
35,724,599
219,972,826
422,791,301
139,521,129
149,395,482
139,621,946
$
$
$
$
35,724,599
185,120,081
457,644,046
151,022,535
$
$
$
$
35,724,599
175,346,545
2,500,814,751
825,268,868
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
271,430,022
$ 868
$ 3,350
Unitario Critico- Precio Unitario Inicial
309,182,593
362,346,047
443,123,337
456,016,993
Pgina 39 de 51
$
$
228,800,000
2,043,967,829
Pgina 40 de 51

Capacidad Nominal
Ao
1650000
Unidades/ao
2014
990000
2015
1059300
OTROS Activos Fjos
Activos diferidos
Capital de trabajo
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,250,000,000
2,197,325,000
549,250,000
274,625,000
228,800,000
3,250,000,000

inicio)
3,350
Ao
2014 al 2023
2015
1133451
2016
1212793
% participacion
67.61%
16.90%
8.45%
7.04%
Inflacion Constante
7.00%
Costo variable $/Kg

Costos fijos por ao
Vlr de rescate
Vlr de rescate
$
$
$
$
Impuesto de renta
2,455
410,000,000
4,000,000,000
2,033,397,169

33.00%

Interes nominal
Interes efectivo
Interes efectivo
Forma de pago
1,462,500,000
12%
Anual / TA
3.0928%
Trimestral vencido
12.96%
EA
Cuota Fija
6

18.00%
12.00%
0.70%
Cuadro 1
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Concepto
Ventas netas
Valor de rescate
Total ingresos
Costos fijos
Total costos
Renta bruta
Inversion total
Flujo pp adi
Tir pp adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
3,250,000,000
-3,250,000,000
20.18%
342,133,426
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2016
4,062,855,110
3,316,500,000
2,430,450,000
410,000,000
2,840,450,000
476,050,000
$
$
$
$
$
3,548,655,000
2,600,581,500
410,000,000
3,010,581,500
538,073,500
$
$
$
$
$
3,797,060,850
2,782,622,205
410,000,000
3,192,622,205
604,438,645
$
$
$
$
$
4,062,855,110
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
476,050,000
538,073,500
604,438,645
675,449,350
Cuadro 3
Depreciacin anual
(En Millones de $
Millones de $
constantes del ao
corrientes)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Cuadro 2
Fin Ao
2018
1297688
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
256,689,252
239,896,498
224,202,334
209,534,892
195,827,002
183,015,889
171,042,887
159,853,166
149,395,482
139,621,946
Fin Ao
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Amortizacin anual
$
$
$
$
$
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
Pgina 41 de 51
Cuadro 4
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
331,236,528 $
312,710,705 $
295,616,921
RLG
$
144,813,472 $
225,362,795 $
308,821,724
Impuesto de renta
$
47,788,446 $
74,369,722 $
101,911,169
Inversin total
$
3,250,000,000
Flujo pp ddi
$
-3,250,000,000 $
405,046,054 $
438,863,193 $
475,948,050
TIR pp ddi
14.04%
VPN(CCPP ddi)
$
357,131,211
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
41,902,020
209,534,892
28,439,986
279,876,897
395,572,453
130,538,910
516,470,455
Cuadro 5
Fin ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Concepto
Flujo pp adi
prestamo
Pago prestamo
Flujo inv adi
TIR inv adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
cuota en $
corrientes
int + saldo
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,453,287,420
1,228,832,444
975,294,888
688,906,528
365,410,892
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
189,495,796
189,495,796
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
saldo despues del

pago
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,286,584,903
1,087,876,527
863,421,552
609,883,996
323,495,636
-
int deducibles en $
corrientes
Cuota en $
constantes del ao
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
298,284,135
278,770,220
260,532,916
243,488,706
227,559,539
212,672,466
2016
675,449,350
$
$
127,176,551
548,272,799
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
41,902,020
209,534,892
127,176,551
28,439,986
407,053,448
268,395,902
88,570,648
127,176,551
189,495,796
189,495,796
189,495,796
166,702,516
140,955,917
111,873,336
79,022,532
41,915,257
Cuadro 6
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
-3,250,000,000 $
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
1,462,500,000
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
-1,787,500,000 $
298,951,126 $
372,560,533 $
449,753,629
30.01%
$
1,282,456,335
Cuadro 7
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
51,331,776 $
47,973,622 $
44,835,161
Depeciacion
$
256,689,252 $
239,896,498 $
224,202,334
Int deducibles
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
508,335,402 $
478,223,671 $
450,301,937
RLG
$
-32,285,402 $
59,849,829 $
154,136,708
Impuesto de renta
$
$
19,750,443 $
50,865,114
Prestamo
$
1,462,500,000
Pago prestamo
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
Financiacion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-3,250,000,000
-1,787,500,000
23.84%
1,402,824,504
VPN
275,735,626
VPN en Millones
Inversin total
Flujo inv ddi
Tir Inv ddi
VPN(CCPP ddi)
327,969,505
Pgina 42 de 51
372,309,090
431,262,165
3000.00
1000000
357.13
$ 591.62
$ 826.11
$ 1,060.60
$ 1,291.38
$ 1,514.27
$ 1,737.17
$ 1,951.62
$ 2,164.83
$ 2,377.92
$ 2,583.07
2500.00
2
2000.00
1951.62
1737.17
1514.27
1500.00
1291.38
1060.60
1000.00
826.11
591.62
500.00
357.13
0.00
0%
10%
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Porcentaje Financiacion del proyecto co
2019
1388526
2020
1485723
2021
1650000
2022
1650000
2023
1650000
2018
4,347,254,967
2019
4,651,562,815
2020
4,977,172,212
2021
5,527,500,000
2022
$ 5,527,500,000
$
$
$
$
$
4,347,254,967
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
$
$
$
$
$
4,651,562,815
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
4,977,172,212
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
751,430,805
832,730,961
919,722,128
1,066,750,000
Amortizacin
anual (En Millones
de $ constantes
del ao inicial del
proyecto)
$
$
$
$
$
51,331,776
47,973,622
44,835,161
41,902,020
39,160,766
Pgina 43 de 51
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$ 1,066,750,000
$
$
228,800,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
39,160,766
195,827,002
30,430,785
265,418,552
486,012,252
160,384,043
560,615,977
Pgina 44 de 51
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
32,560,940
215,576,829
617,154,132
203,660,864
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
34,840,205
205,883,093
713,839,036
235,566,882
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
38,692,500
198,545,666
868,204,334
286,507,430
$
$
$
$
$
149,395,482
38,692,500
188,087,982
878,662,018
289,958,466
$
$
$
$
$
139,621,946
38,692,500
178,314,446
2,921,832,723
964,204,799
596,509,158
649,315,041
741,550,070
738,099,034
$
$
228,800,000
2,326,049,870
Int deducibles en
$ constantes del
ao inicial del
proyecto
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
154,685,016
127,176,551
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
2018
751,430,805
2019
832,730,961
2020
919,722,128
2021
1,066,750,000
2022
$ 1,066,750,000
2023
3,328,947,169
$
$
100,499,620
650,931,184
$
$
74,545,928
758,185,033
$
$
49,211,261
870,510,867
$
$
24,395,061
1,042,354,939
$ 1,066,750,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
39,160,766
195,827,002
100,499,620
30,430,785
365,918,173
385,512,632
127,219,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
183,015,889
74,545,928
32,560,940
290,122,757
542,608,204
179,060,707
$
$
$
$
$
$
171,042,887
49,211,261
34,840,205
255,094,354
664,627,774
219,327,165
$
$
$
$
$
$
159,853,166
24,395,061
38,692,500
222,940,727
843,809,273
278,457,060
149,395,482
139,621,946
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
188,087,982
878,662,018
289,958,466
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
178,314,446
2,921,832,723
964,204,799
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
493,281,231
546,563,386
2583.07
2377.92
2164.83
1951.62
1737.17
1514.27
1291.38
1060.60
826.11
% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Porcentaje Financiacion del proyecto con Prstamo
616,343,496
725,205,379
738,099,034
Pgina 45 de 51
$
$
228,800,000
2,326,049,870
Pgina 46 de 51

Capacidad Nominal
Ao
1650000
Unidades/ao
2014
990000
2015
1059300
OTROS Activos Fjos
Activos diferidos
Capital de trabajo
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,250,000,000
2,197,325,000
549,250,000
274,625,000
228,800,000
3,250,000,000

inicio)
3,350
Ao
2014 al 2023
2015
1133451
2016
1212793
% participacion
67.61%
16.90%
8.45%
7.04%
Inflacion Constante
7.00%
Costo variable $/Kg

Costos fijos por ao
Vlr de rescate
Vlr de rescate
2,455
410000000.00
4000000000
2033397169
Impuesto de renta

33.00%

Interes nominal
Interes efectivo
Interes efectivo
Forma de pago
1,462,500,000
12%
Anual / TA
3.0928%
Trimestral vencido
12.96%
EA
Cuota Fija
6

18.00%
12.00%
0.70%
Cuadro 1
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Concepto
Ventas netas
Valor de rescate
Total ingresos
Costos fijos
Total costos
Renta bruta
Inversion total
Flujo pp adi
Tir pp adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
3,250,000,000
-3,250,000,000
20.18%
342,133,426
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2016
4,062,855,110
3,316,500,000
2,430,450,000
410,000,000
2,840,450,000
476,050,000
$
$
$
$
$
3,548,655,000
2,600,581,500
410,000,000
3,010,581,500
538,073,500
$
$
$
$
$
3,797,060,850
2,782,622,205
410,000,000
3,192,622,205
604,438,645
$
$
$
$
$
4,062,855,110
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
476,050,000
538,073,500
604,438,645
675,449,350
Cuadro 3
Depreciacin anual
(En Millones de $
Millones de $
constantes del ao
corrientes)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Cuadro 2
Depreciacion Ajuste inflacin activos
Fin Ao
2018
1297688
293,883,525
314,455,372
336,467,248
360,019,955
385,221,352
412,186,847
441,039,926
471,912,721
504,946,611
540,292,874
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
274,657,500
Fin Ao
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Amortizacin anual
$
$
$
$
$
58,769,750
62,883,633
67,285,487
71,995,471
77,035,154
Pgina 47 de 51
Cuadro 4
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
54,925,000 $
54,925,000 $
54,925,000
depeciacion
$
274,657,500 $
274,657,500 $
274,657,500
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
352,798,000 $
354,423,085 $
356,161,926
RLG
$
123,252,000 $
183,650,415 $
248,276,719
Impuesto de renta
$
40,673,160 $
60,604,637 $
81,931,317
Inversin total
$
3,250,000,000
Flujo pp ddi
$
-3,250,000,000 $
412,161,340 $
452,628,278 $
495,927,902
TIR pp ddi
14.82%
VPN(CCPP ddi)
$
498,124,381
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
54,925,000
274,657,500
28,439,986
358,022,486
317,426,864
104,750,865
542,258,499
Cuadro 5
Fin ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Concepto
Flujo pp adi
prestamo
Pago prestamo
Flujo inv adi
TIR inv adi
VPN(CCPP adi)
cuota en $
corrientes
int + saldo
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,651,995,796
1,453,287,420
1,228,832,444
975,294,888
688,906,528
365,410,892
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
189,495,796
189,495,796
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
365,410,892
saldo despues del

pago
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,462,500,000
1,286,584,903
1,087,876,527
863,421,552
609,883,996
323,495,636
-
int deducibles en $
corrientes
Cuota en $
constantes del ao
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
298,284,135
278,770,220
260,532,916
243,488,706
227,559,539
212,672,466
2016
675,449,350
$
$
127,176,551
548,272,799
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4,062,855,110
4,062,855,110
28,439,986
2,977,405,759
410,000,000
3,387,405,759
675,449,350
54,925,000
274,657,500
127,176,551
28,439,986
485,199,037
190,250,313
62,782,603
127,176,551
189,495,796
189,495,796
189,495,796
166,702,516
140,955,917
111,873,336
79,022,532
41,915,257
Cuadro 6
2013
2014
2015
2015
$
-3,250,000,000 $
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
1,462,500,000
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
-1,787,500,000 $
298,951,126 $
372,560,533 $
449,753,629
30.01%
$
1,282,456,335
Cuadro 7
Concepto
2013
2014
2015
2015
Ventas netas
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
Valor de Rescate
$
$
$
Total Ingresos
$
3,316,500,000 $
3,548,655,000 $
3,797,060,850
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
$
2,430,450,000 $
2,600,581,500 $
2,782,622,205
Costos Fijos
$
410,000,000 $
410,000,000 $
410,000,000
Total Costos
$
2,840,450,000 $
3,010,581,500 $
3,192,622,205
Renta bruta
$
476,050,000 $
538,073,500 $
604,438,645
$
54,925,000 $
54,925,000 $
54,925,000
Depeciacion
$
274,657,500 $
274,657,500 $
274,657,500
Int deducibles
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016
$
23,215,500 $
24,840,585 $
26,579,426
Total deducciones
$
529,896,874 $
519,936,052 $
510,846,942
RLG
$
-53,846,874 $
18,137,448 $
93,591,703
Impuesto de renta
$
$
5,985,358 $
30,885,262
Prestamo
$
1,462,500,000
Pago prestamo
$
177,098,874 $
165,512,967 $
154,685,016

Inversin total
Flujo inv ddi
Tir Inv ddi
VPN(CCPP ddi)
-3,250,000,000
-1,787,500,000
24.82%
1,537,464,741
275,735,626
341,734,590
Pgina 48 de 51
392,288,941
457,050,210
2019
1388526
2020
1485723
2021
1650000
2022
1650000
2023
1650000
2018
4,347,254,967
2019
4,651,562,815
2020
4,977,172,212
2021
5,527,500,000
2022
$ 5,527,500,000
$
$
$
$
$
4,347,254,967
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
$
$
$
$
$
4,651,562,815
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
4,977,172,212
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
751,430,805
832,730,961
919,722,128
1,066,750,000
Amortizacin
anual (En Millones
de $ constantes
del ao inicial del
proyecto)
$
$
$
$
$
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
54,925,000
Pgina 49 de 51
5,527,500,000
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$ 1,066,750,000
$
$
228,800,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
54,925,000
274,657,500
30,430,785
360,013,285
391,417,520
129,167,782
591,832,238
Pgina 50 de 51
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
32,560,940
307,218,440
525,512,521
173,419,132
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
34,840,205
309,497,705
610,224,423
201,374,060
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
38,692,500
313,350,000
753,400,000
248,622,000
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
38,692,500
313,350,000
753,400,000
248,622,000
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
38,692,500
313,350,000
2,786,797,169
919,643,066
626,750,889
683,507,863
779,435,500
779,435,500
$
$
228,800,000
2,370,611,603
Int deducibles en
$ constantes del
ao inicial del
proyecto
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
177,098,874
165,512,967
154,685,016
127,176,551
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
2018
751,430,805
2019
832,730,961
2020
919,722,128
2021
1,066,750,000
2022
$ 1,066,750,000
2023
3,328,947,169
$
$
100,499,620
650,931,184
$
$
74,545,928
758,185,033
$
$
49,211,261
870,510,867
$
$
24,395,061
1,042,354,939
$ 1,066,750,000
3,328,947,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2018
4,347,254,967
4,347,254,967
30,430,785
3,185,824,163
410,000,000
3,595,824,163
751,430,805
54,925,000
274,657,500
100,499,620
30,430,785
460,512,905
290,917,899
96,002,907
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2019
4,651,562,815
4,651,562,815
32,560,940
3,408,831,854
410,000,000
3,818,831,854
832,730,961
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2020
4,977,172,212
4,977,172,212
34,840,205
3,647,450,084
410,000,000
4,057,450,084
919,722,128
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2021
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2022
5,527,500,000
5,527,500,000
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
1,066,750,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2023
5,527,500,000
2,033,397,169
7,560,897,169
38,692,500
4,050,750,000
410,000,000
4,460,750,000
3,100,147,169
$
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
74,545,928
32,560,940
381,764,367
450,966,594
148,818,976
$
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
49,211,261
34,840,205
358,708,967
561,013,161
185,134,343
$
$
$
$
$
$
274,657,500
24,395,061
38,692,500
337,745,061
729,004,939
240,571,630
274,657,500
274,657,500
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
313,350,000
753,400,000
248,622,000
$
$
$
$
38,692,500
313,350,000
2,786,797,169
919,643,066
100,499,620
74,545,928
49,211,261
24,395,061
524,497,493
576,805,118
650,536,318
763,090,809
779,435,500
Pgina 51 de 51
$
$
228,800,000
2,370,611,603

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EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

Datos del proyecto caso ilustrativo

Precio venta ($/kg)($ constantes de ao de

Costo variable $/Kg

En $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto

Prestamo (en millones)

CCPP adi en terminos reales

Tarifa imp de ind. y comercio

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

saldo despues del

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

Datos del proyecto caso ilustrativo

Costo variable $/Kg

En $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto

Prestamo (en millones)

CCPP adi en terminos reales

Tarifa imp de ind. y comercio

Depreciacion Suma de Digitos

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

saldo despues del

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

Datos del proyecto caso ilustrativo

Precio venta ($/kg)($ constantes de ao de

Costo variable $/Kg

En $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto

Prestamo (en millones)

CCPP adi en terminos reales

Tarifa imp de ind. y comercio

Depreciacion LINEA RECTA

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

saldo despues del

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

Datos del proyecto caso ilustrativo

Costo variable $/Kg

En $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto

Prestamo (en millones)

CCPP adi en terminos reales

Tarifa imp de ind. y comercio

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

saldo despues del

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA DE PROYECTO DE INVERSIN

Datos del proyecto caso ilustrativo

Precio venta ($/kg)($ constantes de ao de

Costo variable $/Kg

2,710 En $ constantes del ao inicial del proyecto

Prestamo (en millones)

CCPP adi en terminos reales