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ENGINEERING RELIABILITY
Course Introduction
Welcome!
Instructor introduction.
Student introduction.
TEXT BOOK
Reliability Engineering: Fundamental and
Applications, R. Ramakumar, Prentice Hall
International, 1993.
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Learning Objectives
Understand Reliabilityy fundamentals.
Relation Between Quality and Reliability.
Modeling Approach for Parallel and Serial
Systems.
Equipment Survival.
Reliability Prediction Methods.
Methods
Reliability Testing.
Maintainability Concept and Measure.
Integrated Logistic Support.
Replacement Models
Our Objective
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Part ONE
Introduction to
Reliability Engineering
Definitions (1/2)
Quality
Monitoring quality characteristics
Control
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Definitions (2/2)
Relation between
QC, QA, & TQM
TQM … Organization
Difficult Time Soft Employees
Leadership
Culture
Business Results
QA … Business Processes
Procedures
Policies Responsibilities
SPC … Product
Off-line
On-line
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Quality Dimensions
Conformance Durability
Reliability Serviceability
Features
Performance Perceived
Quality
Product
Part TWO
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Statistical Overview
P
Population
l ti
A large No. of N
Mean = µ
Standard Deviation = σ
Sample
A small No. of n X
Sample Mean =
Sample Standard
Deviation = s
Descriptive Statistics
Centrality Measures
¾ Mode
¾ Median
¾ Mean
Dispersion Measures
¾ Range
¾ Variance
¾ Standard Deviation
¾ Coefficient of Variation
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Example:
Histogram
Freq.
Weight
6 9 13 17 21 25
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Bernoulli Distribution
Set 1
Set 2
P.d.f
P ( X = x) = ( nx ) p x q n − x
Where P is the prob. Of outcome of the set 1
Where q is the prob. Of outcome of the set 2
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μ = E ( x ) = np
σ = V ( x) = np(1 − p)
2
Example:
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P.d.f N −M
( x )( n − x )
M
P ( X = x) =
( nN )
Where N= size of population, n = Sample
size, M is the objects that classified as
successes, x = no. of success in the
sample.
μ = E ( x ) = np
and
N − n
σ 2
= V ( x ) = np (1 − p )( )
N −1
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Example:
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μ = E (x) = λ
and
σ 2
= V (x) = λ
Example:
For the case of the thin copper wire, suppose that the
number of flaws a Poisson distribution with a mean of 2.3
flaws per millimeter. Determine the probability of exactly
2 flaws in 1 millimeter wires.
Determine the probability of 10 flaws in 5 millimeters of
wire.
i
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Uniform Distribution
Say, x1, x2, ….., xn has equal probability
Say
P.d.f
P( X = x ) = 1 / n
i
Ex:
R={0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9}
R={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}
f(x) = 0.1
E(x) = (a+b)/2
V(x) = ((b-a+1)2 – 1)/12
Example:
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Part Three
Continuous Random
Variables and
Probability Distributions
Uniform Distribution
A continuous random variable X with probability
density function. It uses to approximate several
processes when could be boundaries and has
equal chance.
1
f ( x) =
b−a
E(x) = (a+b)/2
V(x) = (b-a)2 /12
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Example
Let the continuous random variable X denote
the current measured in a thin copper wire in
milliamperes. Assume that the range of X is
[0,20 mA]. What is the probability that a
measurement of current is between 5 and 10
milliamperes? Also, calculate the standard
deviation of X.
Exponential Distribution
A continuous random variable X for time between
events to happen.
f ( x ) = λ e − λx
Where > ג0, and x>=0
E(x) = 1/ג
V(x) = 1/ ג2
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Example
In a large corporate computer network, user
log-ons to the system can be modeled as a
Poisson process with a mean of 25 log-ons
per hour. What is the probability that there
are no log-ons in an interval of 6 minutes.
− ( x− μ )2
1
f ( x) =
2
2σ
e
2πσ
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Standard Deviation (σ )
Mean ( μ )
99.7 Percent
95 Percent
68 Percent
Y - 3s Y -2 s Y-s Y +3s
Y Y+s Y +2s
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Reliability
Monitoring a quality
attributes over a specific
period
i d off time
ti
System Reliability
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To Implement Reliability
1. Conceptual
C t l design
d i (Make
(M k sure allll
components of systems will meet
requirements)
2. Detailed/final design. Can you measure or
predict reliability?
3. Planning for manufacturing.
4. Effects of operating & maintenance period.
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Cost of Reliability
T o ta l C o s t
O p tim u m C o s t
R e lia bility
F a ilu re r a te
Failure Analysis
1. Failure rate, no. of components failing within
specified period.
2. Maintenance: Preventive maintenance (PM),
Corrective maintenance (CM).
3. Catastrophic failure: wait till all component, or
critical component
p failed.
4. Availability: Probability that system is operable.
5. Mean time between failure (MTBF).
Failure (n) Failure (n+1)
6. Mean time to fail (MTTF) T=0 MTTF
T=t1
This is the first failure
7. Mean time to repair (MTTR)
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Hazard Function
f (t )
λ (t ) =
R (t )
t
t1 t2
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Example
If , The failure densityy function f(t)
( ) = 0.25 – ((0.25/8)t,
) t>=0
Find all other reliability functions.
Solution:
1 Q(t)
1. Q( ) = 0.25t
0 25 – (0
(0.25/16)t
25/16) 2
2. R(t) = 1 – Q(t)
3. (גt) = f(t)/R(t)
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Example: 0.25
R(t) = 1- Q(t) 8
MTTF = ∫ R ( t ) dt
0
8
t
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System Reliability
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Example:
A 1 2 3 B
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Parallel Components
1
A 2 B
n
In parallel system, all components fail, will cause a
system failure
R s = 1 − [1 − R 1 ] × [1 − R 2 ] × ....[ 1 − R n ]
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Example:
1
A 2 B
3
For the previous system, if you know that,R1=0.9,
R2=0.8, and R3=0.7. Calculate Rs
Rs=1- (1-0.9) * (1-0.8) * (1-0.7) = 0.994
Example:
L t each
Let h componentt ffor parallel
ll l
system has a reliability Ri = 0.7.
R
Find, reliability of system when 1.02
1
0.98
Conclusion 0.9
0 1 2 3 4 5
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Hybrid Components
1 2 5
A 4 5 B
3 5
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Stand-by-System
What is Maintenance?
BS 3811:1974
Maintenance is defined as: The work under taken
in order to keep or restore a facility to an
acceptable standard level.
Or
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Maintenance Policies
Maintenance Policies
“To Keep” “To Restore”
Planned Maintenance Unplanned Maintenance
Preventive Maintenance
Time-based PM
•Pure time )calendar) based: Weekly, monthly, annually, etc.
•Used (running) time based: 1000 km, 1000 RH, 3000 RH,
etc.
Preventive maintenance actions usually include:
1. Cleaning 2. Lubricating
3. Changing filters
4. Replacing worn parts at prescribed times
5. Inspecting to find and eliminate potential failures.
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Predictive Maintenance
(Condition-based)
(Condition based) Maintenance
By monitoring key equipment parameters "Off-line or
On-line“
¾Vibration analysis
¾Oil analysis
¾Wear analysis
¾Noise analysis
¾Temperature analysis
¾Pressure analysis
¾Quality analysis
¾Efficiency analysis, etc.
Corrective Maintenance
Corrective maintenance consists of all actions required to
retain a unit in its functional state after a failure occurs.
Preventive Maintenance actions usually include:
1. Preparation, obtaining the proper tools and test
equipment, traveling,… etc.
2. Active maintenance, locating the cause of the
failure, disassembling the unit, repairing the
fault, reassembling the unit, checking out.
3. Delays, waiting for spares,… etc.
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Maintainability
It measures a unit’s
unit s ability to be retained in, or restored to,
specific conditions. For maintainability calculations, the following
assumptions are made:
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Availability
Is the p
probabilityy that a unit will be readyy for use at a stated
instant of time or over stated period of time, based on the
combined aspects of reliability and maintainability.
According to Maintenance
Information
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Planned Unplanned
≥ 70 % ≤ 30 %
Experience
Maintenance
Planner
Tools Information
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Maintenance Cost
¾Maintenance costs are a major part of the total operating costs
off allll manufacturing
f t i or production
d ti plants.
l t
¾Depending on the specific industry, maintenance costs can
represent between 15% and 40% of the costs of goods
produced.
¾For example in food related industries, the average maintenance
cost represents about 15% of the cost of goods produced; while
in iron and steel,, pulp
p p and p
paper
p and other heavy y industries
maintenance represents up to 40% of the total production costs.
¾US industry spends more than $200 billion dollars each year on
maintenance of plant equipment and facilities,
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Indirect cost:
Overhead cost
Down time cost
PM Cost
Down Time Cost
CM Cost
Best level PM level
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MM is “do the right things, with the right tools, and in the
right way".
Through:
Define the target and constraints,
I f
Information
ti collecting
ll ti & analysis,
l i
Maintenance planning,
Maintenance organization,
Motivation & direction,
Maintenance control,
Corrective actions, and Learned lessons.
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3rd generation
Higher plant
Availability &reliability
2nd generation Grater safety
Better product quality
No damage to
1st generation Higher plant availability environment
Longer equipment life Longer equipment life
Fix it when it Preventive maintenance
broke
Targets
Customer
Satisfaction
Time Cost & Resources
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Maintenance System
A system is a collection of components (or items)
that work together to achieve a certain objective.
- Technical Constraints
‐ Financial constraints
‐Facility / Plan
‐ Target Maintenance
at acceptable standard
processes
‐ Information
‐ Reports
‐ Resources The output is equipment that
Maintenance is up, reliable, and well
configured to achieve the
performance
planned operation of the
indicators plant.
Control system
Multi-stage centrifugal
El. Power: 132 kw pump
380 V, 3 ph
Environment
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Main Components
Coupling
Pump
Motor 35 ton/hr
1800 rev/min 60 bar
B1 B2
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Current PM Program
Item Job plan Frequency
(1)
Motor
(2)
Coupling
(3)
Pump
(4)
Suction line
(5)
Discharge line
(6)
Valves
(1)
Motor
(2)
Coupling
(3)
Pump
(4)
Suction line
(5)
Discharge line
(6)
Valves
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Developed PM Plan
Item Job plan Frequency
(1)
Motor
(2)
Coupling
(3)
Pump
(4)
Suction line
(5)
Discharge line
(6)
Valves
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Modern MM Systems
There are four modern approaches:
MM Methodologies
OSM RBI & RCM TPM
Main Improve Preserve system Improve
objective equipment function & improve overall system
availability system availability productivity
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Spectrum Analysis
1xRPM - BALANCE
1.8
1.5 2xRPM - ALIGNMENT
1.2 3-6xRPM - LOOSENESS
0.9
GEARS & ANTI FRICTION BEARINGS
0.6
6-30xRPM 30-50xRPM
0.3
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Sub-
Harmonic 1X 2X Bearing Bearing Gears Bearing
Amplitude
1x 2x 50x
Trend of
Trend of Bearings
Balance
5
mm/sec Alarm
1
Time mm/sec Time
(Days) (Days)
SELECTED FREQUENCY
BAND ALARMING
Sub-
Harmonic 1X 2X Bearing Bearing Gears Bearing
Amplitude
1x 2x 50x
Trend of
Trend of Bearings
Balance
5
mm/sec Alarm
1
Time mm/sec Time
(Days) (Days)
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Identification of hazards
HAZOP and problems associated Improve HSE effect.
with operations.
Determination of best
Preserve system function
RCM maintenance requirements
& improve reliability.
for critical systems.
Determination of an
Improve system HSE and
RBI optimum inspection plan
availability.
for critical systems.
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Optimization
Maximize reliability measures
approach for the
OSM and minimize maintenance cost
global maintenance
rates.
system.
Comprehensive
Maximize plant effectiveness and
TPM productive-
resource productivity.
maintenance system.
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Maintenance Control
Total Control Indicators:
2- Time control
Behind schedule (late), Ahead schedule (early)
3- Cost control
Cost overrun, Cost under-run
4- Quality control
A
Acceptable
t bl level,
l l Non-acceptable
N t bl level
l l
5- Inventory control
Over estimation, Under estimation
6- Resources control
Over estimation, Under estimation
Control Steps
1.
1 Whatt to
Wh t control?
t l?
2. What is the standard (target) performance?
3. What is the actual performance level?
4. Comparison between the actual & target.
5. Detection of variance
6
6. Identification of causes of variance
7. Corrective actions
8. Learned lessons.
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System Effectivness
System Effectiveness
Efficiency Availability
Utilization & R li bili
Reliability M i i bili
Maintainability
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