Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Chandan Sapkota
Asian Development Bank
Nepal Resident Mission
2015-09-03
Presentation Outline
1.
Macroeconomic overview
2.
Performance in FY2015
Real sector
Fiscal sector
Monetary sector
External sector
3.
4.
5.
2015-09-03
Macroeconomic overview
2015-09-03
Real Sector
2015-09-03
4.6
4.6
4.3
3.8
3.8
3.0
0
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014R
Post-quake
Pre-quake
FY2015P
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Construction
Other industry
Other services
Financial intermediation
Agriculture & forestry
Manufacturing
Wholesale & retail trade
Construction
Hotels & restaurants
Education
Transport, storage & communications
Community, social & personal services
Public administration & defence
Fishing
Health & social work
-1
11
62% of total gross value added loss accounted for by services sector
2015-09-03
80
70
289
300
60
250
50
200
40
150
133
120
90
100
30
84
20
50
39
27
10
0
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
Energy
Manufacturing
Service
Tourism
Agriculture
Mineral
Construction
Total
Commitment (% of GDP):
FY2014
2015-09-03
FY2015
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
Energy
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Construction
Actual FDI inflows
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
Service
Tourism
Mineral
Total FDI commitment
Fiscal Sector
2015-09-03
Expenditure growth
100
120
Absorption capacity
100
82.6
80
78.4
80
60
71.8
71.6
70.8
FY2009
FY2010
FY2012
69.9
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
Recurrent
Capital
Total expenditure
Recurrent (% of allocation)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015R
Capex (% of allocation)
10
30
FY2014
25
FY2015R
Vehicles
20.0
20
Land
15.4
15.9
14.6
15
Plant and
machinery
Capital
contingencies
10
Research and
consultancy
15.6
15.9
8.6
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.8
Building
0
Civil works
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Total
2015-09-03
Recurrent
Capital
11
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Aug-14
Sep
Oct
SAARC Summit
preparation/Dashain/Tihar
Nov
SAARC
Summit
Recurrent
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
Apr
Financing
May
Jun
Jul-15
One-fourth of total spending done in last month; 45% in last three months
44% of actual capex in the last month; 63% in last three months
2015-09-03
12
25
50
20
2.3
40
2.3
2.2
2.1
15
1.5
30
2.1
2.1
1.5
1.8
10
20
15.3
13.4
11.9
10
9.8
13.0
16.1
16.8
13.9
10.5
0
Value
Income tax Customs
added tax
Excise
FY2014R
2015-09-03
Land
Vechile tax Educational
registration
service tax
fee
FY2015P
Tax revenue
Non-tax revenue
13
25
20
15
10
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015R
-1
0
FY'2009 FY'2010 FY'2011 FY'2012 FY'2013 FY2014 FY2015R
-2
Domestic revenue
Grants
-3
Capital expenditure
Fiscal balance
-5
2015-09-03
Recurrent expenditure
Primary balance
Fiscal balance
14
4.0
3.5
50
44.0
3.0
40.5
40
2.5
32.5
32.2
30
25.6
2.0
1.5
20
1.0
10
0.5
0
0.0
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015
Internal
2015-09-03
External
Outstanding debt
15
Monetary Sector
2015-09-03
16
14
Food inflation
14
12
12
10
10
Non-food inflation
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
FY2013
14.0
FY2014
FY2013
FY2015
FY2014
FY2015
Inflation (Y-o-Y)
Overall inflation
12.0
Year
Average
Food
Non-food
FY2010
9.6
15.1
4.9
FY2011
9.6
14.6
5.3
FY2012
8.3
7.7
9.0
2.0
FY2013
9.9
9.7
10.1
0.0
FY2014
9.1
11.6
6.8
FY2015
7.2
9.6
5.2
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
2015-09-03
Jul
Jul
17
40
30
35
25
30
20
25
15
20
10
15
10
5
0
M2
0
FY2011
-5
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
-5
-10
-10
-15
-20
2015-09-03
-15
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
Commerical banks
Development banks
Finance companies
Total deposit
18
30
40
35
25
30
20
25
15
20
10
15
5
10
0
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
-5
0
FY2007FY2008 FY2009FY2010 FY2011FY2012 FY2013FY2014 FY2015
-10
-5
-15
-10
Commerical banks
Development banks
Finance companies
Total credit
2015-09-03
-15
Construction
Real estate
19
Interbank rate
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Interbank rate
8
6
4
2
Jun-13
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
CRR-Commerical banks
CRR-Development banks
CRR-Finance companies
Bank rate and Standing Liquidity Facility rate
2015-09-03
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
FY2014
10
Jul
Aug-11
Nov
Feb
May
Aug-12
Nov
Feb
May
Aug-13
Nov
Feb
May
Aug-14
Nov
Feb
May
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Non-performing loan
20
70
Trading
77.3
80
1200
65.3
Preferred Stock
1000
Manufacturing &
Processing
Mutual Fund
800
60
Others
50
Hotel
40
Finance
Companies
Promoter Share
Development
Banks
Hydropower
30
22.0
20
Insurance
Companies
Commercial Banks
10.3
600
400
200
0
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
10
Total
0
FY2012
2015-09-03
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
21
External Sector
2015-09-03
22
Share of GDP
2015-09-03
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
TOTAL EXPORTS
4.5
4.7
4.0
To India
3.0
3.1
2.6
To China
0.1
0.1
0.1
To Other Countries
1.4
1.5
1.3
TOTAL IMPORTS
32.8
36.8
36.5
From India
21.7
24.6
23.1
From China
3.7
3.8
4.7
7.5
8.4
8.6
-28.3
-32.1
-32.4
With India
-18.6
-21.5
-20.5
With China
-3.6
-3.6
-4.6
-6.1
-6.9
-7.3
23
Malaysia
600,000
35
Qatar
527,814
453,543
Saudi
Arabia
UAE
384,665
400,000
354,716
300,000
294,094
Others
Kuwait
South
Korea
Bahrain
Oman
200,000
Japan
30
500,000
25
400,000
20
300,000
15
200,000
10
100,000
500,000
512,887
Afghanist
an
100,000
Lebanon
Israel
Total
24
40
30
20
10
0
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
-10
-20
-30
-40
Export (fob)
Oil import
Grants
Workers remittances
Capital account
Financial account
Balance of payments
25
60
1-Jan-11
4-Feb-11
10-Mar-
13-Apr-11
17-May-
20-Jun-11
24-Jul-11
27-Aug-
30-Sep-11
3-Nov-11
7-Dec-11
10-Jan-12
13-Feb-12
18-Mar-
21-Apr-12
25-May-
28-Jun-12
1-Aug-12
4-Sep-12
8-Oct-12
11-Nov-
15-Dec-12
18-Jan-13
21-Feb-13
27-Mar-
30-Apr-13
3-Jun-13
7-Jul-13
9-Aug-13
12-Sep-13
16-Oct-13
19-Nov-
23-Dec-13
26-Jan-14
1-Mar-14
4-Apr-14
8-May-14
11-Jun-14
15-Jul-14
18-Aug-
21-Sep-14
25-Oct-14
28-Nov-
1-Jan-15
4-Feb-15
10-Mar-
13-Apr-15
17-May-
20-Jun-15
24-Jul-15
27-Aug-
110
108.4
106.4
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
70.2
2015-09-03
2015-09-03
27
5.5
5.1
4.6
4.5
3.8
3.0
0
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014R
FY2015P
CBS
Agriculture
Industry
FY2016_s1
FY2016_s2
2015-09-03
28
Contributions to inflation
10
9.6
9.9
9.6
9.5
9.1
8.5
7.2
8.3
0
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016_s1
FY2016_s2
Nepal-CPI
India-CPI
2015-09-03
29
2015-09-03
30
Funds for
reconstruction is not an
issue
Pledged amount > public
sector needs
Capacity to accelerate
reconstruction projects
within the given
timeframe is an issue
2015-09-03
25.6%
-0.1%
5.0%
-1.2%
31
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
2016
2015-09-03
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Public debt_s1
Public debt_s2
Public debt_s3
Primary balance_s1
Primary balance_s2
Primary balance_s3
2025
32
2015-09-03
33
Thank You!
2015-09-03
34
2015-09-03
35