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F inance Minister Pranab Mukherjee presented the Union Budget 2010-11 in parliament on Friday. Has he lived up
to the expectations of the taxpayers? Is it a populist Budget? Will it also help India to grow? To find out read on..
Highlights...
Markets have slightly gained momentum and are trading near day’s high ahead of the Mega Event – The Union
Budget 2010-11. The Oil & Gas, PSU, Metals and Auto stocks are attracting buying interest. The broader indices, the
Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks are recording smart gains. On the other hand, the IT and select telecom stocks
are under pressure.
Infrastructure, agriculture and social sector have been the key focus areas of budget 2010-11. The
budget has sought to promote growth within an inclusive agenda. Consequently substantial plan outlay has been
devoted to social and rural development flagship schemes. In order to sustain progress on the human development
front, continued focus on the various development schemes will be crucial. The key highlights of this approach are:
Infrastructure: A strong emphasis on infrastructure is clearly discernible in the budget. Allocation for
infrastructure stands at about 46% of total plan allocation in the budget. The focus has been two pronged especially
increasing refinancing through Indian Infrastructure Financial Corporation (IIFCL) while focussing on current
national level infrastructure projects. The increment in allocation to National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) has
been at 13% to Rs 19,894 crore in FY11. The Power sector has seen a near doubling in its allocation to Rs 5,130
crore in FY11.
Social Sector: With the key focus on inclusive growth GoI extended its commitments towards the social sector by
allocating a sum of Rs. 1,37,674 crore which forms around 37% of the total plan outlay in 2010-11. Focus areas
continue to remain financial inclusion, the national employment guarantee scheme and rural development schemes
under the flagship Bharat Nirman package. Urban development allocation has increased by more than 75% to Rs.
5,400 crore as against Rs. 3,060 crore in the previous year.
Low cost rural and urban housing have also been in focus. Unit cost has been raised for the Indira Awas Yojana for
rural areas. For urban low-cost housing, policy direction has been through interest subvention on loans and a nearly
700% jump in allocation to Rajiv Awas Yojana to Rs 1,270 crore. Compliance to the right to education act has meant
higher allocation for elementary education from Rs. 26,800 crore to Rs. 31,036 crore. Plan allocation for the Ministry
of Health and Family Welfare has increased from Rs.19,534 crore to Rs.22,300 crore for 2010-11.
Agriculture: The agriculture sector has been affected by the less than normal monsoon in the Kharif season.
Consequently agricultural growth is estimated to have fallen by 0.2 per cent in FY10. The budget focus on agriculture
is hence a key positive. The launch of integrated missions in expanding the green revolution and in oilseeds and
pulses would give a much needed impetus to these segments. The formulation of a four pronged strategy focussing
on production, wastage reduction, credit support and focus on the food processing sector should improve the
linkages between agriculture and industry.
Policy intent: Three clear strands of policy intent are evident. Firstly, the budget proposes a target in excess of Rs
25,000 crore for stake divestment in Public sector enterprises, hence making the divestment process irreversible.
Secondly, budget strongly commits to rationalization of key subsidies including the transition to a nutrient based
fertilizer subsidy system and movement on the Parekh committee recommendations on petroleum subsidies. Thirdly,
the deadline for the implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) has been further pushed to April, 2011,
indicating that differences between the states and the Centre are yet to be ironed out. The Direct Tax Code has been
proposed to be implemented from April 2011. The implementation of these two path breaking schemes should result
in a more rational and simplified taxation system. No major announcement on the foreign investment front has been
made and the government appears to be following a gradualist and cautious approach to the same.
e) Fiscal stance: On the issue of the roll back of the fiscal stimulus, the budget takes a gradualist approach. The
revision of the excise standard rate upwards to 10% and the retention of the service tax rate at 10% would bring
about an alignment in the taxes on goods and services, a much needed pre-condition for the implementation of GST.
The budget has extended the interest subvention on pre-shipment credit for key export-oriented sectors till March
2011, thus indicating that the fiscal stimulus would continue to sensitive sectors affected by the global slowdown. The
expansion of direct personal tax slabs in line with the implementation of DTC would stabilize the nascent demand
recovery that has been witnessed.
Concluding Observations:
Overall the Union budget presents a growth oriented face with an effort to establish a timeline to return to the path of
fiscal prudence. However, especially given the various expenditure pressures facing the government, maintaining the
fiscal timeline of reverting to a 3 % fiscal deficit by FY14 would be a challenging task and the actual implementation of
subsidy rationalization, disinvestment/divestment and better targeting of development expenditure would remain
crucial elements in the policy outlook.
The Budget, despite its aam aadmi rhetoric, is expected to stoke the fires of inflation, while
actually doing little to relieve the debt burden of farmers, says SHARAD JOSHI.
The Finance Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, had everything going for him. His party won the
general elections less than a year ago. It was under his stewardship as Finance Minister that the
country came out of the global recession far better than most countries.
When he got up to present the Budget 2010-11, he had an opportunity to present one that would
lay the foundations for the Indian economy to become an economic superpower. It is indeed sad
that this veteran with unmatched experience in the Ministries of Commerce, External Affairs and
Finance should have botched up this chance.
The general perception is that prices of all major commodities such as steel, cement and gold,
silver will go up, and that the Budget has added fuel to the already scorching fire of commodity
prices.
His partymen, however, lost no time in saying that the Budget belonged to the ‘aam aadmi', the
farmer, the entrepreneur and the investor. The stock market received the Budget proposals fairly
amicably. Most TV channels started claiming that this was a farmers' budget.
But what have farmers got? Those who return the crop loans in good time can get a rebate of 2
per cent. The question is: How many farmers are in a position to return crop loans in good time?
Does the Finance Minister know that all over India, crop loans are hardly ever returned? They
are all reconverted into new loans with the grace of the cooperative society secretary, which
comes at a price. The Finance Minister's gimmick is likely to result in the benefit going to the
society secretary rather than to the loanee farmer.
A farmer holding more than two hectares of land, in districts listed in the schedule to the Debt
Relief and Loan Waiver scheme, is entitled to a waiver of 25 per cent of the amount due, on the
condition that he repays the remaining 75 per cent. The Finance Minister has recognised that
many such farmers are not in a position to make 75 per cent repayment in the current year, and
has given an extension till the end of June 2010.
The Finance Minister could not have been unaware of the fact that few farmers have any income
between end-February and end-June. He also promised to raise the credit flow to agriculture to
Rs 3,75,000 crore, some Rs 50,000 crore higher than in the current year. Even the most naïve
would not think that this meets the requirements of credit of the entire agricultural sector.
Both private and public sector investments in agriculture have been dwindling for decades. Even
the minimum requirements of the investment-starved sector can be met only if the commodity
markets develop the necessary liquidity as also the depth.
The Economic Survey 2009-10 does bring out that futures markets have no causal relationship
with the inflationary trends in prices. The Finance Minister, nevertheless, was unwilling to give
up on choking the futures commodity markets.
LONG-TERM POLICIES
The Finance Minister does mention a programme for the development and growth of agriculture.
This plan of action consists of replication of the Green Revolution in the eastern and the north-
eastern region, and infusion of technology to augment agricultural production and research and
development for new varieties of seeds that can withstand the vicissitudes of climate.
The plan does not appear to gel with the position already taken on this subject by the Minister of
State for Environment and Forests.
The Finance Minister does mention the necessity of supporting activities like cold storage, cold
rooms and pre-cooling plants. Surely, he is aware of the fact that the entire refrigeration
technology is under attack from the environmentalists, as a producer of greenhouse gases.
The new food processing industry will need to use more sophisticated technologies like high-
pressure techniques for the elimination of bacteria and viruses.
The list of projects falling under production, control of wastage, credit and food processing has
not been allotted any specific sum in the Budget speech. This appears to be more like the long
list of railway projects that the Railways Minister had presented to the nation.
Since Mr Mukherjee talked of India emerging as a select band of achievers, he should have
followed one of the prominent countries of the BRIC group and launched a programme for
encouraging production of biofuels.
That would have delinked domestic petroleum prices from international crude prices. It would
have also made agriculture a remunerative vocation and solved effectively the problem of food
insecurity.
Merely passing a food security legislation would only mean one more addition to a set of the
rights that are not actionable.
UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD
All this notwithstanding, Mr Mukherjee would get pass marks for his Budget. Unfortunately, the
ship that he has launched is not insured against any of the three storms he is likely to meet before
the end of the year.
The monsoons might show an entirely unexpected face, international crude prices might flare up
and a terrorist attack might turn topsy-turvy any plans regarding provision of security in the
country.
(The author is Founder, Shetkari Sanghatana and Rajya Sabha MP. blfeedback@thehindu.co.in)
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