MAE108 Homework 2 Solutions - Spring 2015

April 19, 2015

Problem 2.7
Define
D1 = the event that the first weld is defective
D2 = the event that the second weld is defective
D3 = the event that the third weld is defective.
We know P (D1 ) = P (D2 ) = P (D3 ) = 0.10 and D1 , D2 , and D3 are independent of each other.

a)
P (D1 D2 D3 ) = P (D1 )P (D2 )P (D3 )

because D1 , D2 , D3 are independent

= (1 P (D1 ))(1 P (D2 ))(1 P (D3 ))

= (1 0.9)(1 0.9)(1 0.9)
= 0.729.

b)
P (exactly 2 welds def.) = P (D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3 )
= P (D1 )P (D2 )(1 P (D3 )) + P (D1 )(1 P (D2 ))P (D3 ) + (1 P (D1 ))P (D2 )P (D3 )
= 0.1 0.1 0.9 + 0.1 0.9 0.1 + 0.9 0.1 0.1
= 0.027.

c)
P (D1 D2 D3 ) = P (D1 )P (D2 )P (D3 )
= 0.1 0.1 0.1
= 0.001.

Problem 2.9
Define
E1 = the event that tractor 1 is in good condition after 5 years
E2 = the event that tractor 2 is in good condition after 5 years
E3 = the event that tractor 3 is in good condition after 5 years.

a)
A = E1 E 2 E 3
B = E1 E 2 E 3 E 1 E2 E 3 E 1 E 2 E3
C = E1 E2 E3

b)
We know P (E1 ) = 0.6, P (E2 ) = 0.6, P (E3 ) = 0.6, P (E i |E j ) = 0.8 for every pair (i, j) of tractors, and
P (E i |E j E k ) = 0.8 for each tuple (i, j, k) of tractors.
P (A) = P (E1 E 2 E 3 )
= P (E1 |E 2 E 3 )P (E 2 E 3 )
= (1 P (E 1 |E 2 E 3 ))P (E 2 |E 3 )P (E 3 )
= (1 0.8) 0.6 (1 0.6)
= 0.048.
P (B) = P (E1 E 2 E 3 E 1 E2 E 3 E 1 E 2 E3 )

and because the intersection of any two events in the union is empty,

= P (E1 E 2 E 3 ) + P (E 1 E2 E 3 ) + P (E 1 E 2 E3 )

since P (E1 E 2 E 3 ) = P (E 1 E2 E 3 ) = P (E 1 E 2 E3 )

= 3 (1 P (E1 |E 2 E 3 ))P (E 2 |E 3 )P (E 3 )
= 3 0.048
= 0.144.
P (C) = P (E1 E2 E3 )

and applying De Morgans Rule,

= 1 P (E 1 E 2 E 3 )
= 1 P (E 1 |E 2 E 3 )P (E 2 E 3 )
= 1 P (E 1 |E 2 E 3 )P (E 2 |E 3 )P (E 3 )
= 1 0.8 0.6 (1 0.6)
= 0.808.

Problem 2.11
Define
X = the event of a waste leak from storage site X in 100 years
SA = the event that there exists a continuous stream of sand from X to town A
SB = the event that there exists a continuous stream of sand from X to town B
A = the event that water in town A is contaminated
B = the event that water in town B is contaminated.
We know P (X) = 0.01, P (SA ) = 0.02, P (SB ) = 0.03, P (SB |SA ) = 0.2, and X is independent of SA , SB .

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a)
P (A) = P (XSA )

and because X and SA are independent,

= P (X)P (SA )
= 0.01 0.02
= 0.0002.

b)
P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB)
= P (XSA ) + P (XSB ) P (XSA SB )
= P (X)(P (SA ) + P (SB ) P (SB |SA )P (SA ))
= 0.01 (0.02 + 0.03 0.2 0.02)
= 0.00046.

Problem 2.13
Define
G = the event of good weather
L = the event of adequate labor supply
M = the event of adequate materials supply
C = the event of successful completion of the construction project.
We know P (L) = 0.7, P (G) = 0.6, P (M |G) = 1, P (M |G) = 0.5, and L is independent of G, M .

a)
C = G(L M ) GLM

b)
P (C) = P (G(L M )) + P (GLM )
= P (GL) + P (GM ) P (GLM ) + P (LM |G)P (G)
= P (G)P (L) + P (M |G)P (G) P (L)P (M |G)P (G) + P (L)P (M |G)(1 P (G))
= 0.6 0.7 + 1 0.6 0.7 1 0.6 + 0.7 0.5 (1 0.6)
= 0.74.

c)
P (L|C) =
=

P (LC)
P (C)
P (LM G)
P (C)

P (L)P (M |G)P (G)

P (C)
0.3 1 0.6
=
0.74
= 0.243.
=

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Problem 2.15
Define
F = the event that fuel cell technology is successful
S = the event that solar technology is successful.
We know P (F ) = 0.7, P (S) = 0.85, and F and S are independent.

a)
P (F S) = P (F ) + P (S) P (F S)
= P (F ) + P (S) P (F )P (S)
= 0.7 + 0.85 0.7 0.85
= 0.955.

b)
P (exactly one is successful) = P (F S) P (F S)
= 0.955 0.7 0.85
= 0.36.

Problem 2.17
Define
A = the event that there is an open parking spot in lot A
B = the event that there is an open parking spot in lot B
C = the event that there is an open parking spot in lot C.
We know P (A) = 0.20, P (B) = 0.15, P (C) = 0.80, P (B|A) = 0.05, and P (C|A B) = 0.40.

a)
P (A B) = P (B|A)P (A)
= (1 P (B|A))(1 P (A))
= (1 0.05)(1 0.2)
= 0.76.

b)
P (A B C) = 1 P (A B C)
= 1 P (C|A B)P (A B)
= 1 (1 P (C|A B))P (A B)
= 1 (1 0.4) 0.76
= 0.544.

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c)
P (A B)
P (A B C)
1 0.76
=
0.544
= 0.441.

P (A B|A B C) =

1 P (A B)
P (A B C)

Problem 2.19
Define
M = the event of master cylinder failure within 4 years or 50,000 miles
W = the event of wheel cylinder failure within 4 years or 50,000 miles
B = the event of brake pad failure within 4 years or 50,000 miles.
We know P (M ) = 0.02, P (W ) = 0.05, P (B) = 0.50, P (M W ) = 0.01, and B is ind. of M, W .

a)
P (W M B) = P (B)P (M |W )P (W )
= P (B)(1 P (M |W ))P (W )


P (M W )
= (1 P (B)) 1
P (W )
P (W )


0.01
0.05
= (1 0.5) 1
0.05
= 0.02.

b)
P (M W B) = P (M ) + P (W ) + P (B) P (M W ) P (M B) P (W B) + P (M W B)
= P (M ) + P (W ) + P (B) P (M W ) P (M )P (B) P (W )P (B) + P (M W )P (B)
= 0.02 + 0.05 + 0.50 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.05 0.5 + 0.5 0.01
= 0.53.

c)
P (exactly one fails, if total failure) = P (M W B|M W B) + P (M W B|M W B) + P (M W B|M W B)
=

=
=

P (M W B) + P (M W B) + P (M W )P (B)
P (M W B)


W)
P (W ) + P (1 + P (M W ) P (M ) P (W ))P (B)
P (M W B) + (1 P (B)) 1 P (M
W
P (M W B)
0.02 + (1 0.5) 1

0.01
0.05

0.05 + 0.5 (1 + 0.01 0.02 0.05)

0.53

= 0.962.

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Problem 2.21
Define
E1 = the event that summer 1 is hot
E2 = the event that summer 2 is hot
E3 = the event that summer 3 is hot.
We know P (E1 ) = P (E2 ) = P (E3 ) = 0.2, P (E2 |E1 ) = 0.4, P (E3 |E2 ) = 0.4, and E1 and E3 are independent.

a)
P (E1 E2 E3 ) = P (E3 |E1 E2 )P (E1 E2 )

and because E1 does not effect P (E3 ),

= P (E3 |E2 )P (E2 |E1 )P (E1 )

= 0.4 0.4 0.2
= 0.032.

b)
P (E 2 E 1 )
P (E 1 )
1 + P (E1 E2 ) P (E1 ) P (E2 )
=
1 P (E1 )
1 0.2 0.2 + 0.4 0.2
=
1 0.2
= 0.85.

P (E 2 |E 1 ) =

c)
P (E1 E2 E3 ) = 1 P (E 1 E 2 E 3 )
= 1 P (E 3 |E 2 E 1 )P (E 2 E 1 )
= 1 P (E 3 |E 2 )P (E 2 |E 1 )P (E 1 )
= 1 0.85 0.85 0.8
= 0.422.

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