Sunteți pe pagina 1din 610

T-2

STATE OF ALASKA
THE REGULATORY COMMISSION OF ALASKA

Mark K. Johnson, Chair


Kate Giard
Dave Harbour
James S. Strandberg
G. Nanette Thompson

Before Commissioners:

In the Matter of the Filing by AMERADA HESS


PIPELINE CORPORATION; BP PIPELINES
(ALASKA) INe.; EXXONMOBIL PIPELINE
COMPANY; PHILIPS TRANSPORTATION
(ALASKA) INC.; UNOCAL PIPELINE COMPANY;
and WILLIAMS ALASKA PIPELINE COMPANY,
LLC of Tariff Rates To Be Effective January 1,2003,
for the Intrastate Transponation of Petroleum over the
Trans Alaska Pipeline System and the Investigation
into the 2001 and 2002 Tariff Rates for the Intrastate
Transportation of Petroleum over the
Trans Alaska Pipeline System

)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)

VOLUME I OF III
Prepared Direct and Answering Testimony
and Exbibits
of

FRANK J. HANLEY
AUS Consultants - Utility Services
Bebalfof
TESORO ALASKA COMPANY
OD

September 3, 2003

P-03-4

TABLE OF CONTENTS
VOLUME I of III
TABLE OF CONTENTS

I.

INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE

II.

DIRECT TESTIMONY

II.A

SUMMARY

II.B

THE RATEMAKING PARADIGM

II.C

RJSK

I1.D

EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS

10

II.E

CAPITAL STRUCTURE

12

II.F

DEBT COST RATES

18

II.G

COMMON EQUln
I.

2.

3.

4.

COST RATES

20

Academic Literature Support for Use of Multiple


Cost of Common Equity Models

20

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model

22

2.a

22

Theoretical Basis

Application of the DCF Model

23

3.a

24

Single-Stage Gro\\th DCF Model

Two-Stage Growth DCF Model

26

TABLE OF CONTENTS cont.


5.

6.

7.

8.
Ill.
V.

The Risk Premium Model (RPM)

29

5.a

Theoretical Basis

29

5.b

Application of the RPM

30

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

34

6.a

Theoretical Basis

34

6.b

Traditional CAPM

35

6.c

The Empirical CAPM

35

6.d

Applications of the CAPM

36

6.d.1

Traditional CAPM Results

38

6.d.2

Empirical CAPM Results

39

6.d.3

Summary of CAPM Conclusion

39

Comparable Earnings Model (CEM)

39

7.a

Theoretical Basis

39

7.b

Market-Based Selection of Comparable Risk Companies

40

7.c

Applications of the CEM

43

Recommended Common Equity Cost Rates

OVERALL COSTS OF CAPrT AL AND FAIR RATES OF RETURN

43
45

ANSWERING TESTIMONY

46

V.A

46

TAPS CARRIERS' WITNESS WILLIAMSON

Appendix A - Professional Qualifications


11

TABLE OF CONTENTS cont.


VOLUME II OF HI
Workpapers (numbers correspond with exhibit designations):
Tab
FJH WP-I
FJH WP-2
FJH WP-3
FJH WP-4
FJH WP-5
FJH WP-6
FJH WP-7
FJHWP-8
FJH WP-9
FJH WP-IO

Description
None
None
Workpapers 1-3 to FJH-3
Workpapers 1-2 to FJH-4
None
Workpapers 1-9 to FJH-6
Workpaper I to FJH -7
None
Workpapers 1-7 to FJH-9
Workpapers 1-3 to FJH-IO
VOLUME HI OF III

Workpapers (numbers correspond with exhibit designations):


Tab
FJH WP-ll
FJH WP-12
FJHWP-J3
FJH WP-14
FJH Misc. WP

Description
Workpapcrs J-4 to FJH-l J
Workpaper 1 to FJH-12
None
None
Miscellaneous Work papers 1-3

III

PREPARED

DIRECT AND ANSWERING


OF
FRANK J. HANLEY

TESTIMONY

I.

INTRODUCTION

Q.

Please state your name, occupation and business address.

A.

My name is Frank J. Hanley and I am President of AUS Consultants - Utility Services.

AND PURPOSE

My business address is 155 Gaither Drive, P.O. Box 1050, Moorestown, New Jersey

08057.

Q.

Please summarize your professional qualifications.

A.

J have testified as an expert witness on rate of return and related financial issues before

33 state public utility commissions, including the Regulatory Commission of Alaska, the

Public Services Commission of the Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Federal

10

Energy Regulatory Commission ("FERC"). I have also testified before local and county

II

reguJatorybodies, an arbitration panel, a U.S. Bankruptcy Court, the U.S. Tax Court and

12

a state district court.

13

municipalities,

14

administration from Drexel University. I am also a Certified Rate of Return Analyst.

15

The details in Appendix A present a more detailed description of my professional

16

quali fications.

I have appeared on behalf of investor-owned

and state public utility commissions.

companies,

I hold a B.S. in business

Q.

What is the purpose of your testimony?

A.

The purpose of my prepared direct testimony is to provide evidence on behalf of Tesoro

Alaska Company ("Tesoro") with regard to the fair rates of return which the Trans-

Alaska Pipeline System ('TAPS") should be afforded an opportunity to earn for the years

2001,2002. the going-forward period, i.e., 2003 and heyond.

The purpose of my answering testimony is to address the flaws in the approach

utilized hy TAPS Carriers' Witness Williamson in the determination of fair rates of

return in his prepared direct testimony as to the: (l) the differences in capital structure

ratios and debt and common equity cost rates attrihutable to his choice of proxy gas

10

pipeline companies; (2) the flaws in his reasoning for not relying upon the Risk Premium

IJ

Model ("RPM"), Capital Asset Pricing Model ("C APM"), and Comparable Earnings

12

Model ("CEM") and failure to apply the methodology of the Commission's Order No.

13

151; (3) incorrect inclusion of the early period risk adjustment adder of 75 basis points

14

beyond mid-2002; and (4) his inconsistency with prior recent testimonies.

15

Q.

Have you prepared exhibits in support of your testimony?

16

A.

Yes. I have prepared (or had prepared under my direct supervision and direction) 14

17

Exhibits which have been marked as Exhibits FJH-Ithrough

18

through FJH-I J relate to my direct testimony, Exhibits FJH-12through FJH-14 relate to

19

my answering testimony.

FJH-14. Exhibits FJH-l

n.

DIRECT TESTIMONY

ILA

SUMMARY

Q.

Please summarize you r direct testimouy.

A.

I recommend appropriate overall costs of capital and fair rates of return applicable to

TAPS for the years 2001, 2002, and the going-forward period commencing in 2003. I

have followed precisely the methodology established by this Commission in its Order

No. 151 relative to Docket No. P-97-4. The only differences are with regard to proxy gas

pipeline holding companies for varying and necessary reasons which will be explained.

The oil pipeline proxies are the same as in Order No. 151 except that the name of

10

Lakehead Pipeline Partners has been changed to Enbridge Energy Partners. The first step

II

in the process is the determination of an appropriate capital structure.

12

structure ratios employed should be consistent with the prospective level of business risk

13

of the enterprise and with similar risk companies whose capital structure ratios have

14

found acceptance in the marketplace. The capital structure of a regulated utility should

IS

be the result of its prospective level of business risk. It should not be based upon who

16

owns its common stock or the manner in which those owners are financed. TAPS should

17

be viewed as a stand-alone utility, and its business and financial risks should be evaluated

18

in that context.

The capital

19

Following the methodology of Order No. IS 1, I analyzed the capital structure of

20

the proxy groups of five oil and four gas pipeline holding companies (including their

21

operating gas pipeline subsidiaries whose bonds are rated) based on the years 2000 and

22

2001 applicable to the years 2001 and 2002; and three gas pipeline companies' capital

structures at year-end 2002 applicable to those companies qualifying for inclusion as

proxies in August 2003 applicable to the going-forward period. I recommend the use of

separate capital structure and fair rate of return for each period, i.e., the two locked-in

years 2001 and 2002 as well as the going-forward period.

In order to ascertain reasonable debt cost rates for TAPS, I analyzed the

composite cost rates of long-term debt of the proxy groups of oil and gas pipeline

companies. I relied upon averages of the oil companies and the operating subsidiaries'

gas pipeline subsidiaries whose bonds are rated.

common equity cost rates, I relied upon the Efficient Market Hypothesis ("EMH") which

10

suggests that investors are aware of all publicly available information including the

II

financial literature, which discusses multiple cost of common equity models and

12

encourages their use. Consequently, I employ four different cost of common equity

13

models, namely the Discounted Cash Flow ("DCF"); the Risk Premium Model (RPM);

14

the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); and the Comparable Earnings Model (eEM).

15

As a result of the application of all four models to the two proxy groups of oil and gas

16

pipeline companies, I formulated my recommended common equity cost rates applicable

17

to the locked-in years 2001 and 2002, as well as the going-forward period. Because

18

ratemaking and the cost of capital are prospective, I assessed the cost of capital for each

19

locked-in year based on market conditions at the end of the preceding year. For the

20

going-forward period, i.e., 2003 and beyond, I utilized the most recent capital structures

21

and debt cost rates (2002) to the companies qualifying to be in each proxy group in

."

August 2003, and the most recent August 2003 market data for my cost of common

_L

In fomlUlating my recommended

equity reconmlendation.

My cost of capital recommendations for the locked-in years

2001-2002, the going-foIWard period are sUDilllarized in the following table:

3
4

Going
FOIWard (I)

6
7

Capital Structures
Debt
Equity

Debt Cost Rates

9
10

2001 (I)

50.52%
49.48

49.88%
50.12

48.34%
51.66

6.03%

6.46%

7.52l}ij

12.95%

13.15%

14.30%

Costs of ConmlOn Equity:


Excluding Early Period Adder
Early Period Added (2)

11
12

2002 (I)

N/ A

0.375%

0.75%

12.95%

13.525%

15.05%

9.46%

10.01%

11.41~{,

Risk Premium

13

Total Cost of Equity

14

Reconmlended Overall Costs

15

of Capital

16
17
18
19

(I)
(2)

Infonnation from Exhibit FJH-1 and Supporting Exhibits.


Order No. 151 specified added risk premium for early periods was to tenninate
mid-2002. Thus, no adder included for the going-foIWard period and only onehalf, or 37.5 basis points recognized for 2002.

20

My recommended CODmlonequity cost rate for 2001 reflects the full 75 basis

21

points allowed by this Commission through mid-2002 per Order No. 151. Since the

~')
4_

added risk premium was to end mid-2002, only one-half the 75 basis points, or 37.5 basis

23

points, is recognized for 2002 and no added risk premium is reflected for the "going-

24

fOIWard" period, i.e., 2003 and beyond, hence the N/A, i.e., not applicable.

H.B

THE RATEMAKlNG

PARADIGM

Q.

Please briefly explain the ratemaking

A.

In non-price regulated industries, the competition of the marketplace is the principal

paradigm.

In the case of price-

determinant in establishing the price of a product or service.

regulated public utilities, regulation must act as a substitute for the competition of the

marketplace. The principal standard employed in utility price regulation is the rate base

limes rate of return paradigm. Rate base is typically the Depreciated Original Cost of

assets in service plus allowances for necessary cash working capital and materials and

supplies inventory. The fair rate of return must meet the judicial standards established

10

by the U.S. Supreme Court in Bluefield Water Works Improvement Co. v. Pub. Servo

II

Comm'n, 262 U.S. 679 (1922); and Federal Power Comm'n v. Hope Natural Gas Co.,

12

320 U.S. 591 (1944). Those cases essentially require that tbe rates set assure that a utility

13

can fulfill its obligation to serve and provide a level of earnings sufficient to maintain the

14

integrity of invested capital and permit the attraction of new capital at a reasonable cost

15

in competition with other comparable-risk seekers of capital in the marketplace. Thus,

16

the cost of capital must be determined from analyses of market-based cost rates.

17

Ratemaking is always prospective as is the cost of capital. Capital costs reflect

18

investors' expectations based upon their perceptions of future risks. Rates are set to be

19

collected over a future time period. Utilities are not guaranteed to earn a fair rate of

20

return but are afforded only an opportunity to earn it.

Q.

Please explain.

A.

As Phillipsl points out, the U.S. Supreme Court has stated that public utilities are not

guaranteed a fair rate of return. He cites the Market Street Railway Co. v. Railroad

Comm'n, 324 U.S. 548, 567 (] 945) where the Court stated:
The due process clause has been applied to prevent governmental
destruction of existing economic values. It has not and cannot be
applied to insure values or to restore values that have been lost by
the operation of economic forces.

5
6
7
8

Phillips' adds that public utilities are not protected from "business hazards" or from the

operation of "economic forces."

10

There is a long-standing prohibition against retroactive ratemaking which

11

prohibits the recovery of past losses in the setting of new rates.

12

13

Q.

prospective nature of ratemaking

14
15
16

Can you provide an example from a past regulatory

A.

decision which affirms the

and prohibits the recovery of past costs or risks?

Yes. For example, the California Public Utilities Commission, in its decision Re Pacific
Gas and Electric Company stated:
The general concept of retroactive ratemaking is spelled out in the
case law of numerous other states. Retroactive ratemaking occurs
when a rate is set so as to permit collection in the future for
expenses attributable to past services. (State ex reI. Utilities
Commission v. Nantahala Power and Light Co., 309 S.E. 2d 473,
485,65 N.C. App. 198.) It is the setting of rates which permit a
utility to recover past losses or which require it to refund past

17
18
19
20
21
22
23

Charles F. Phillips. Jr., The Regulation of Public Utilities B Theory and Practice. 1993, Public Utility
Reports, Inc., Arlington, VA. p. 381.
Id.

Public Utilities Reports, Inc. 1997 B PURBase B PUR4th B Decision 92-02-037, Application 90-05-003,
Feb. 5, 1992.

excess profits collected under a rate that did not perfectly match
expenses plus rate of return with the rate actually established.
(State ex reI. Utility Consumers Council of Missouri, inc. v.
Public Service Commission, 585 S.W. 2d 4159 (Mo.).)

3
4
5

Consequently, future rates should not include any provision to recover perceived past

earnings deficiencies.

II.C

RISK

Q.

Please describe in a general way tbe elements of investment risk investors face in
tbe marketplace.

9
10

A.

The collective investment risk faced by investors is comprised of both non-diversifiable,

11

systematic market risk and diversifiable, unsystematic, or non-market, risks. Systematic

12

market risk is the result of socioeconomic and other events that affect the returns on all

13

assets. Thus, diversification cannot reduce or eliminate systematic risk. Unsystematic,

14

non-market risks are diversifiable and are comprised of a combination of both business

15

and financial risks.

16

Q.

Wbat is business risk?

17

A.

Business risk is a collective term encompassing all of the diversifiable risks of a firnl

18

except financial risk. Business risk is important to the determination of a fair rate of

19

return because the greater the level of risk, the greater the rate of return demanded by

20

investors consistent with the basic financial precept of risk and return.

21

Q.

Wbat is financial risk?

22

A.

Financial risk is the additional risk which arises when debt capital is introduced into the

23

capital structure ofa firnl. The marketplace determines, with guidelines from bond rating

agencies, just how much debt is acceptable for a firm to employ given its collective

assessment of the firm's business risk. In other words, the greater the perceived business

risk, the greater is the required equity cushion underlying the debt capital and vice versa.

Q.

How can investors gain insigbt into a firm's diversifiable

A.

A firm's level of investment risk can be ascertained from its bond rating. Although the

investment risk?

specific business or financial risks may differ between companies, the same bond rating

indicates that the combined risks are similar because the bond rating process takes all

diversifiable business and financial risks into account. For example, Standard & Poor's

("'S&P") expressly states that the bond rating process encompasses a qualitative analysis

10

of business and financial risks.' Consequently, S&P's credit analysis results in a

II

bond/credit rating which reflects a comprehensive assessment of all of the diversifiable

12

risks of an enterprise. As a rule, higher credit ratings mean lower costs of debt and

13

equity.

14

Q.

How are perceived investment risks acknowledged

15

A.

They are acknowledged by debt capital investors who place reliance upon bond ratings.

by investors?

16

The higher a bond rating, the lower the perceived risks and the lower the expected rate

17

of return, and vice versa in accordance with the risk/return tenet oftlnance.1nvestors

18

common stocks acknowledge all perceived risks in the prices they pay for stocks in

19

accordance with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).

Slandard & Poor's - Corporate Ratings Criteria. Copyright 1996, pp. 29~35.

in

II.D

EFFICIENT

MARKET HYPOTHESIS

Q.

Please describe the conceptual basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EM H).

A.

The EMH is the cornerstone of modern investment theory.

It was pioneered by

Eugene F. Fama' in 1970. An efficient market is one in which security prices at all times

reflect all the relevant information at that time. An efficient market implies that prices

adjust instantaneously to the arrival of new information and that the process therefore

reflects the intrinsic fundamental economic value of a security.6

9
10

The essential components of the EMH are:


I.

investors are rational and will invest in assets which provide the highest
expected return for a particular level of risk.

2.

Current market prices reOect all publicly available information.

3.

Returns are independent in that today's market returns are umelated to


yesterday's returns as that information has already been processed.

4.

The markets follow a random walk, i.e., the probability distribution of


expected returns approximates the nornlal bell curve.

II

12

13

14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

24

Brealey and Myers 7 state:


When economists say that the security market is 'efficient', they
are not talking about whether the filing is up to date or whether
desktops are tidy. They mean that information is widely and
cheaply available to investors and that all relevant and
ascertainable information is already reflected in security prices.

fama, Eugene f., "Eflicient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work." Journal or
Finance, May 1970, pp. 383-417.
Morin, Roger A., "Regulatory Finance - Utilities' Cost of Capital." Public Utilities Reports, Inc., 1994,
p.136.
Brealey. R.A. and Myers, S.c., "Principles orCorporate finance." McGraw-Hill Publications, Inc., 1996,
pp.323-24.

10

Brigham' defines the three forms of the EMH, thusly:

I.

The "weak" form asserts that all past market prices and data are fully
reflected in securities prices. In other words, technical analysis cannot
enable an investor to "outperform the market."

5
6
7

2.

The "semi strong" form asserts that all publicly available information is
fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, fundamental analysis
cannot enable an investor to "outperform the market."

3.

The "strong" form asserts that all information, both public and private, is
fully reflected in securities prices.
In other words, even insider
information cannot enable an investor to "outperform the market."

9
10

11

The "semi strong" form is generally held as true because the use of insider information

12

(even though illegal) can often enable an investor to "beat the market" and earn excessive

13

returns, thereby disproving the "strong" form.

14

Q.

Does the EMH influence the capital structure ratios which a firm can employ?

15

A.

Yes. Investors (and bond rating agencies to whom debt investors look for guidance and

16

comfort) take into account all publicly available infoffilation before purchasing debt

17

instruments. When a firm attempts to employ more financial leverage than its business

18

risk permits, as perceived by investors, either the firm will be unable to raise all required

19

external capital, or at a minimum, the capital will be more costly. If a firnl crosses the

20

financial leverage threshold relative to investors' perceptions of business risk, its bond

21

rating will inevitably be lowered which will result in higher capital costs.

Brigham, Eugene F., "Fundamentals of Financial Management". The Dryden Press. Fifth Edition, 1989.
p.225.

11

Q.
2
3

of common equity

cost rate.
A.

Common sense affirms the conceptual basis of the "semi strong" form of the EMH as

described above. In practical terms, this means that market prices paid for securities

reOect all publicly-available

analysis can enable an investor to outperform the market without the illegal use of insider

information. Investors are aware of all publicly available information, including, but not

limited to, bond rating, analysts' assessments of risk and earnings forecasts, and all the

various cost of common equity models discussed in the tinancialliterature.

information.

Thus, no degree of sophistication and/or

This means

10

that all such cost of common equity models should be employed in an effort to emulate

II

investors' actions because the EMH requires the assumption that investors utilize all

12

publicly-available information.

13

II.E

CAPITAL STRUCTURE

14

Q.

Wbat are tbe most important

15
16

Please explain tbe applicability oftbe EMH to tbe determination

structure
A.

for ratemaking

factors in determining

an appropriate

capital

purposes?

The capital structure should be reasonably similar to the capital structures maintained by

17

other companies of similar risk as long as it is not excessively costly to customers. Too

18

much common equity in the capital structure results in the need for an excessive level of

19

revenues in order to support the higher common equity ratio. The need for excessive

20

revenues occurs because, with the use of too much equity, there is less interest paid on

21

debt capital. Interest expense is deductible in arriving at corporate taxable income which

22

reduces the level of income taxes which need to be collected from customers through
12

rates. In other words, an appropriate capital structure should be commensurate with the

perceived level of business risk wruch can be ascertained by reference to comparable risk

proxies and credit rating agency guidelines.

Q.

What comparable risk proxies have you evaluated?

A.

I have evaluated two separate proxy groups. The first is a group of five oil pipeline

companies which remains constant for all three periods, i.e., 2001, 2002,

"going

forward." It is the same group of companies utilized in Order No. 151 except for a name

change for one of the companies, i.e., Lakehead Pipe Line Partners is now Enbridge

Energy Partners. The second is a group of gas pipeline holding companies. The number

10

varies from four companies applicable to 2001 and 2002 and three applicable to the

II

"going-forward" period. J believe that the gas pipeline holding companies generally are

12

over-leveraged as a result of a number of acquisitions and mergers in recent years which

13

have been accomplished largely through the use of debt capital. Because those highly

14

leveraged capital structure ratios of the gas pipeline companies are not indicative of how

15

an operating gas pipeline company should be financed, I chose instead to view the capital

16

structure ratios maintained by their operating subsidiaries which issue their own long-

17

term debt capital that is rated, an approach also consistent with Order No. 151. I have

18

differences in the companies chosen for these groups of gas pipeline holding companies

19

(and hence their operating subsidiaries whose bonds are rated) from those chosen by

20

Dr. Willianlson.

21

testimony.

Those differences will be addressed in the answering portion of this

13

Q.

Please describe Exhibit FJH-3.

A.

Exhibit FJH-3 consists of eleven pages and contains information on the capital structure

ratios for the years 2000 through 2002 for the proxy groups of oil and gas pipeline

companies, and the operating subsidiaries of the gas pipeline holding companies whose

bonds are rated. The resulls of my analyses are summarized on page I of Exhibit FJH-3.

Q.

How were the capital structure ratios shown in Exhibit FJH-3 calculated?

A.

They were calculated based on the reported financial statements and are based on the

book values of common equity or partners' capital, i.e., net worth, for all of the

companies in accordance with standard financial practice. This is the same methodology

10

utilized by analysts, bond rating agencies, and financial publication firms such as Value

II

Line Investment Survey, etc. 1lis consistent with balance sheets prepared in accordance

12

with generally accepted accounting principles.

13

Q.

Please summarize your analyses of capital structure ratios.

14

A.

Page I of Exhibit FJH-3 summarizes the capital structure ratios. My calculations were

15

based on all of the outstanding investor-provided capital, including the current portion

16

of long-term debt as well as short term debt. Market-based conunon equity cost rates

17

reflect investors' perception of the total risk of each company including financial risk.

18

Investor-influencing rating agencies such as S&P base their quantitative analyses in part

19

on capital structure ratios calculated /Tomthe books (the balance sheets) and they include

20

total debt, i.e., the sum of both long- and short-term debt.

21

I have shown on page I of Exhibit FJH-3 for all three periods, the average capital

22

structure ratios for the five oil pipeline companies and the operating subsidiaries of the
14

gas pipeline holding companies whose bonds are rated. I also show at the bottom of

page 1 of Exhibit FJH-3, consistent with Order No. 151, the average of those averages

by period, which are those capital structure ratios which I recommend for use in

determining rates ofretum for TAPS for 2001,2002,

the going-forward period.

On the top of page 2 of Exhibit FJH-3, Ihave shown the average capital structure

ratios of the gas pipeline holding companies whose debt ratios ranged between 58.38%

and 61.24%, during the periods studied. Ibelieve that these holding companies have been

over-leveraged in recent years due to acquisitions and mergers accomplished through the

use of substantial debt. Thus, Ido not believe that such ratios are representative of how
Consequently, I chose to

10

an operating gas pipeline company should be financed.

11

examine the capital structure ratios maintained by the operating gas pipeline subsidiaries

12

of these holding companies that have their own bonds outstanding which are rated. I

13

should note that in each of the three periods, Idid include Kinder Morgan Interstate Gas

14

Transmission at 100% equity in the calculation of the average ratios for the operating gas

15

companies. That subsidiary, until 2000, did have its own rated debt outstanding. Had

16

Inot done so, the resultant capital structure ratios would have been biased toward too

17

much debt for the reasons stated above regarding the gas pipeline holding companies.

18

It was also necessitated because of the relatively few operating gas pipeline companies

19

with rated debt outstanding; especially in 2002 (applicable to the going-forward period)

20

for the three holding companies.

21

Partners have issued debt only at the parent level. They are included in the 2002 average,

22

but Ialso included Kinder Morgan Interstate Gas Transmission (a subsidiary of Kinder

Enterprise Products Partners and GulfTerra Energy

15

Morgan, Inc.) at 100% equity to achieve a realistic capital structure of 43.53% debt and

56.47% equity for this group. Had I not done so and included Kinder Morgan, Inc. along

with the other two holding companies (Enterprise Partners and Gulff erra), the average

capital structure applicable to the gas pipeline group for the going-forward period would

have been 65.30% debt and 34.71 % equity- a non-representative and wholly inadequate

capital structure with too much debt and too little equity.

The details of the capital structures by period are shown in Exhibit FJH-3, pages

5 through 9, the results of which are shown in summary form on page I of Exhibit FJH-3.

As shown on page I of Exhibit FJH-3, the average capital structure ratios of the oil

10

pipeline companies, the operating subsidiaries of the gas pipeline companies and their

11

average applicable to each period are as follows:

12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Capital Structure Ratios


Periods
Going
2002 (2)
Forward (])
2001
Oil Pipelines
Debt
Equity

19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Operating Subsidiaries
of Gas Pipeline Holding Companies
Debt
Equity

26
27
28
29

(1)

(3)

57.50%

54.67%

42.50

45.33

53.60%
46.40

43.53%

45.09%

43.08%

56.47

54.91

56.92

50.52~o

49.88%

48.34%

49.48

50.12

51.66

Average

Debt
Equity

Based on year-end 2002 capital structures for qualifying proxy companies in August
2003.

(2)
3)

Based on year-end 2001 capital structures.


Based on year-end 2000 capital structures.

16

I
2

The above average ratios are those which I adopt for each locked-in period 2001,
2002 as well as the going-forward period.

The average S&P assigned business position to the average oil pipeline proxy

company islhas been essentially 4 with an average bond rating ranging between BBB+

and A-. The average assigned business position for those operating subsidiaries of the

gas pipeline holding companies islhas been close to 5 with average bond ratings ranging

between BBB- to BBB+. The information for both groups is shown in Workpaper No.3

to Exhibit FJH-9 (FJH WP-9). In view of the foregoing, Idecided to observe the S&P's

financial target ratios for a utility with a credit rating of BBB and a business position

10

ranging between 4 and 5. The S&P financial target ratios are shown on page 10 of

II

Exhibit FJH-3, while S&P's definitions of those ratios are shown on page IIof the same

12

exhibit. As can be determined by taking the complement of the total debt to total capital

13

target ratios in order to detemline the range of required total equity ratios, the S&P

14

ranges of required capital structure ratios for a utility with a BBB bond rating and

15

business positions of 4 and 5 are as follows:

16

BBB Bond Rating

17
18

Business Position
_4_

_5_

19

Total Debt

49.5%-57.0%

47.0%-55.0%

20

Total Equity

43.0%-50.5%

45.0%-53.0%

17

In vIew of the recent actual ratios of the proxy groups and their average

applicable to each period as discussed above, as well as the S&P target ratios for a utility

with BBB bond rating and business position ranging between 4 and 5, it is clear that the

capital structure ratios which Ihave recommended to be applicable to each period (2001,

2002, going-forward) are reasonable because they fit within S&P's financial target

ratios.

I1.F

DEBT COST RATES

Q.

How did you arrive at your recommended


2001 and 2002, as well as the going-forward

9
10

A.

debt cost rates for the locked-in years


period?

Consistent with Order No. 151 methodology, Irelied upon an average of the average

11

long-term debt cost rate for the oil pipeline group and the operating subsidiaries of the

12

gas pipeline holding companies whose bonds are rated for each of those periods. My

13

comparative analysis of all those long-term debt cost rates is contained in Exhibit FJH-4

14

which consists of three pages. Page I is a summary of those rates, and pages 2 and 3

15

contain the cost rates by company and group. For the year 2001, I rely upon the long-

16

tern] debt cost rates at year-end 2000 and for 2002 Irely upon the long-tern] debt cost

17

rates at year-end 2001. For the going-forward period, I rely upon the companies that

18

appropriately can be included in the proxy groups in August 2003 and utilize the year-

19

end 2002 long-term debt cost rates for those companies. The results of my analyses of

18

long-term

debt cost rate are summarized

on page I of Exhibit

FJH-4.

They are as

follows:
Applicable

Period

GoingAverage Long-Term

Debt Cost Rates

Forward

2002

6
7

Oil Pipelines

Operating

Gas Pipeline Holding Companies

II

Subsidiaries

Q.

Tbe capital

structure

explain

13

ranging

between

I believe

it is appropriate

14

A.

6.03%

ratios wbicb you analyzed

12

wby long-term

7.54%

of

A verage (Recommended)

10

5.47%

5.57%

include

debt cost rates are appropriate

48.34%

and 50.52%

debt.

Please

to use witb total debt ratios

for eacb of tbe tbree periods.

to use long-term

15

assume that over time short-term

16

mix consistent

17

agencies such as S&P. Moreover,

18

yield curve (such as has been experienced

19

use of short-term

20

rates, would result in lower composite

21

from January 200 I to date with commercial

22

my recommended

with industry

sbort-term

debt cost rates because it is reasonable

debt would be permanently

averages

and the financial

to

funded based on a capital

target ratios of bond rating

this view is generous because with the usual normal


in recent years and is currently the case), the

debt cost rates, which are substantially


debt cost rates.

long-term debt cost rates.

19

lower than long-term debt cost


This has certainly been the case

paper rates and bank prime rates well below

II.G

COMMON

I.

Academic Literature

Q.

Previously,

you discussed why the EMH requires

the use of multiple cost of

common equity models. Is there support in the academic literature for the need to

rely upon multiple cost of common equity models in arriving at a recommended

common equity cost rate?


Yes. For example, Phillips states:

A.

12
13
14

Since regulation establishes a level of authorized earnings which,


in turn, implicitly influences dividends per share, estimation of
the growth rate from such data is an inherently circular process.
For these reasons. the DCF model 'suggests a degree 0/
precision which is infact not present' and leaves 'wide room lor
controversy and argument about the level 0/ k '. (p. 396, italics
added).

15

* * *

16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

Despite the difficulty 0/ measuring relative risk. the comparable


earnings standard is no harder to app(v than is the marketdetermined standard. The DCF method, to illustrate. requires a
subjective determination 0/ the growth rate the market is
contemplating. Moreover, as Leventhal has argued: 'Unless the
utility is permilled to eam a retum comparable to that amilable
elsewhere on similar risk, it will not be able in the long run to
allract capital. ' (p. 398, italics added).

8
9
10
II

Also, Morin

24

10

states:

Sole reliance on the DCF model ignores the capital market


evidence andfinancial theoryformalized in the CAPM and other
risk premium methods. The DCF model is one 0/ many 100is 10
be employed in conjunction with other methods 10 estimate the

25
26
27
28

Support for Use of Multiple Cost of Common Equity Models

EQUITY COST RATES

Id.
Id., pp. 23 I -32; 239-40.

20

1
2
3
4

cost of equity. It is not a superior methodology that supplants


other financial theory and market evidence. The broad usage of
the DCF methodology in regulatory proceedings does not make
it superior to other methods. (pp. 231-32, italics added).

5
6
7

Each methodology requires the exercise of considerable


judgement on the reasonableness of the assumption underlying
the methodology and on the reasonableness of the proxies used to
validate a theory. The failure of the traditional infinite growth
DCF model to account for changes in relative market valuation,
discussed above, is a vivid example of the potential shortcomings
of the DCF model when applied to a given company. It follows
that more than one methodology should be employed in arriving
at ajudgment on the cost of equity and that these methodologies
should be applied across a series of comparable risk companies.
...Financial literature supports the use of multiple methods.
(p. 239, italics added).

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

18

19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

In practical work, it is often best to use all three methods CAPM, bond yield plus risk premium, and DCF - and then apply
judgement when the methods produce different results. People
experienced in estimating capital costs recognize that both careful
analysis and very fine judgements are required. It would be nice
to pretend that these judgements are unnecessary and to specifY
an easy, precise way of determining the exact cost of equity
capital. Unfortunately, this is not possible. (pp. 239-40, italics
added).

27

Another prominent finance scholar, Professor Stewart Myers, in his best-selling corporate

28

finance textbook stated:

29
30
31

Professor Eugene Brigham, a widely respected scholar and finance academician asserted:

The constant growth formula and the capital asset pricing model
are two different ways of gelling a handle on the same problem.
(p. 240, italics added).

21

In an earlier article, Professor Stewart Myers explained the point more fully:

Use more than one model when you can. Because estimating the
opportunity cost of capital is difficult. onZv a fool throws away
useful information. That means you should not use anyone
model or measure mechanicalZv and exclusiveZv. Beta is helpful
as one tool in a kit, to be used in parallel with DCF models or
other techniques for interpreting capital market data. (p. 240,
italics added).

2
3
4
5
6
7
8

In view of the foregoing, it is clear that investors are aware of all of the models including

comparable earnings. The EMH requires the assumption that investors use them all.

10

11

2.

Discounted Cash Flow <DCE) Model

12

2.a

Theoretical

13

Q.

Please explain the theoretical basis of the DCF model.

14

A.

It is based upon the concept of the Net Present Value of an expected future stream of net

Basis

15

cash flows during the investment holding period discounted at the capitalization rate, or

16

the cost of capital. The capitalization rate is the total return rate expected by investors.

17

The DCF theory suggests that an investor purchases a stock with an expected

18

capitalization rate in mind which rate is expected to be experienced in the fornl of cash

19

!lows from dividends and appreciation in market price (the growth rate). hl essence, the

20

expected capitalization rate is the sum of the dividend yield on market price plus a

21

growth rate.

22

3.

Application oftbe DCF Model

Q.

Wbat versions of tbe DCF model did you use and bow were tbey applied?

A.

I applied two basic versions of the DCF model, namely a single-stage growth model and

a two-stage growth model.

holding periods. In practical terms, this means a very long period of time such as 40 to

50 years.

Inthe application of the two-stage growth model, Icalculated the growth rates in

two different ways. The first Icall "compound growth" and the second Icall the "FERC

weighted growth." These will be explained subsequently.

10

Both models theoretically presume infinite investment

The DCF models and all the cost of common equity models which Iutilize are
Icalculate the cost of common equity as of the December 31, preceding

11

market-based.

12

each of the locked-in years 2001 and 2002 as well as in August 2003 for the going-

13

forward period. The cost of capital expected by investors is prospective. Accordingly,

14

application of the costs of common equity models at year-end 2000 and 2001 is

15

appropriately applicable to the subsequent locked-in years, namely 2001 and 2002. For

16

the "going-forward"

17

available in August 2003. Thus, for the going-forward period, Iutilized spot dividend

18

yields on July 31,2003, and for the three, six and twelve months then ended. Such data

19

is most representative of the future and that is also why Ibased it upon those companies

20

that qualify for inclusion as valid proxies in August 2003. I summarize all of the results

21

of my applications of the DCF model in Exhibit FJH-5.

period, i.e .. 2003 and beyond, I rely upon the most recent data

23

3.a

Sinele-Staee

Q.

How did you determine the dividend yields used iu your application of the singlestage growth DCF model?

A.

The recent volatility of the stock market demonstrates why current spot (single day)

market prices should not be used exclusively in the ratemaking paradigm. A principal

goal of regulation is to normalize in order to avoid erratic pricing. Consequently, in

calculating dividend yields I relied upon the spot prices at December 31, preceding each

of the two locked-in years 2001 and 2002, as well as the averages of each of the

preceding three, six and twelve months, respectively. Exhibit FJH-6 contains all of the

10

single-stage growth DCF details and consists of seven pages. Page 1 contains a summary

11

of the results for all three periods. Group average dividend yields are shown in Line Nos.

12

1,5, and 10. Pages 2 through 4 contain details of the dividend yields by company and

13

group as well as averages for each period.

14

information by year which will be discussed subsequently.

15

Q.

17

Pages 5 through 7 contain growth rate

Please explain the dividend growth components shown on Line Nos. 2, 7, and 12,
respectively of Exhibit FJH-6, page 1.

16

Growth DCF Model

A.

Due to the fact that dividends are paid quarterly, or periodically, as opposed to

18

continuously (daily), an adjustment must be made.

This is often referred to as the

19

discrete, or the Gordon Periodic version of the DCF model.

20

Since all of the companies pay quarterly dividends at di fferent times of the year,

21

a reasonable assumption is to reflect one-half the expected dividend growth rate. This

22

is a conservative approach so as not to overstate the dividend yield as it should be

24

representative of the next twelve-month period consistent with the academic literature.

Therefore, the actual average dividend yields on Line Nos. I, 6, and lion

Exhibit FJH-6 have been adjusted upward to reflect one-half the growth rates shown on

Line Nos. 4, 9, and 14, respectively. The resultant adjusted dividend yields are shown on

Line Nos. 3, 8, and 13, respectively.

Q.

A.

When it comes to fonnulating an expectation of growth for use in the DCF model, I

believe that investors are most inclined to give weight to analysts' forecasts. This is

10

especially so in a time of investor awareness of increasing regulatory changes affecting

II

the energy industry. Moreover, I believe it is clear that investors' expectation of earnings

12

gro\'o1.his the largest single factor which affects market prices. Consequently, I have

13

reviewed Value Line and I/B/E/S (Source:

14

projections of growth rates in earnings per share ("EPS"). I average the two projections

15

of EPS growth rates by company in each group and obtain an average growth rate for

16

each group.

17

Q.

19

Standard & Poor's Earnings Guides)

Please explain why you also rely upon Value Line's earnings growth forecasts in
addition to I/BIE/S.

18

Please explain the basis of the growth rates you utilized in your application of the
single-stage growth DCF model.

7
8

page I of

A.

Value Line is an independent financial advisory service; it is not in the brokerage

20

business; its subscription rate is inexpensive, thereby making it very affordable for

21

individual investors; and it is readi ly accessible in the business reference section of better

22

libraries. Since Value Line has more than 100,000 subscribers and is so accessible to

25

investors. it is investor-influencing.

Moreover. because it is not in the brokerage

business, its independence is important to investors, especially in recent years due to the

scandals attributable to analysts who work for brokerage firms. The goal of an expert

witness testifying to the cost of common equity capital is to emulate what influences

investor opinions, and since a large percentage of utility common stocks are owned by

individual investors, the use of the Value Line forecasts is indispensable.

The details of my conclusions of growth rates are shown on pages 5 through 7 of

Exhibit FJH-6 by company and group for each of the three periods, i.e., the locked-in

years 2001 and 2002, as well as the going-forward period.

10

Q.

Please discuss the results of your application ofthe single-stage growth DCF model.

II

A.

The results are summarized on page I of Exhibit FJH-5. The going-forward cost rates

12

range from 14.4% for the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies to 16.1% for the

13

three gas pipeline companies. The 2002 cost rates range trom 13.7% for the proxy group

14

of four gas pipeline companies to 15.0% for the proxy group of five oil pipeline

IS

companies.

16

pipeline companies to 16.4~ofor the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies.

The 2001 cost rates range trom 15.3% for the proxy group of four gas

17

4.

Two-Stage Growth DCF Model

18

Q.

Please explain the basis of a two-stage growth DCF model.

19

A.

Analysts' forecasts are usually limited to five years. The investment horizon implicit in

20

the standard DCF model used in rate regulation is infinity. In practical terms, this means

21

a typical period of 40 to 50 years when discounting is performed on a Net Present Value

??
_L

("NPV") basis before the NPV is essentially zero. The theory for a second-stage growth
26

rate is that over the long-run no company's growth can exceed that of the economy as a

whole.

Domestic Product ("GDP"). The FERC relies upon forecasted GDP growth during the

second stage in its application of a two-stage growth DCF model. For the first-stage

growth rate, 1 use only the average (first five years) forecasted growth in EPS. For the

second-stage growth, 1 use an average of forecasted GDP growth rates in a manner

previously utilized by the FERC. In the application, [ use the information available at

December 31 preceding the locked-in years 200 I and 2002 as well as at July 31, 2003,

preceding the going-forward period. I utilize two di fferent forms of the two-stage growth

10

model, namely a compound growth form consistent with DCF theory and previously

11

utilized hy the FERC as well as FERC"s current weighted growth version. I helieve the

12

latter to be flawed because it is arbitrary and inconsistent with the compound growth

13

theory of the DCF model. In applying both fOrolSof the two-stage gro\\1h model, I relied

14

upon the Energy Information

15

Administration (S.S.A.) forecasts of growth in GDP.

16

Q.

Administration

(E.l.A.)

What dividend yields do you use in your applications

and the Social Security

of the two-stage growth DCF

model?

17
18

Growth of the economy is typically now measured hy growth in the Gross

A.

I use the same dividend yields as those in my applications of the single-stage growth

19

model. The expected growth components are different because the growth rates differ

20

due to the use of second-stage growth rates.

27

Q.

Please discuss the results of the two-stage, compound growth DCF model.

A.

The results are shown in Exhibit FJH-7 which consists of seven pages. Page 1 contains

a summary of the results.

Pages 2 through 7 contain the supporting details.

The

first-stage growth rates are the average growth in EPS as shown by proxy group and

company in Column 2 of pages 5 through 7 of Exhibit FJH-6. The second-stage growth

rates are the average of the E.LA. and S.S.A. forecasted growth rates in GDP through

2020 to 2022 applicable to the years 2001, 2002, the going-forward period, respectively.

1 have compounded the impact of the first and second-stage growth rates on the initial

annual dividends per share consistent with DCF theory.

10

As shown on page 1 of Exhibit FJH-7, the two-stage compound growth rates

11

range from a low of5.7% applicable to 2001 to a high of6.4% applicable to 2002 for the

12

five oil pipeline companies and from a low of 6.7% applicable to the going-forward

13

period to a high of7.9% applicable to 2002 for the four gas pipeline companies. The

14

DCF cost rates range from a low of 8.6% for the four gas pipeline holding companies

15

applicable to the year 2001 to a high of 14.4% applicable to the five oil pipeline

16

companies for the year 2001.

17

Q.

Please discuss the results of the two-stage, FERC weighted DCF model.

18

A.

Application is identical to the two-stage compound growth model with the exception that

19

1 have emulated the current FERC approach to calculating the gro\>,'lhrate. The FERC

20

arbitrarily gives 2/3 weight to the first-stage growth rate and 1/3 weight to the average

21

of all of the forecasted GDP growth rates. There is no basis in the theory of the DCF

22

model to support such an approach which is, therefore,


28

completely

arbitrary.

Nonetheless, 1 have weighted growth in that manner in this application of the DCF
2

model. The results are shown in Exhibit FJH-8 which consists of four pages. Page I

contains a summary of the results. Pages 2 through 4 contain the details of growth rates

by company for each of the proxy groups of oil and gas pipeline holding companies. As

shown on page 1, the DCF cost rates range IToma low of 13.5% for the four gas pipeline

holding companies applicable to 2001, to a high of 16.0% applicable to the proxy group

of five oil pipeline companies for 2001.

Q.

of the single-stage growth DCF

model and both versions of the two-stage growth DCF model.

10

Please su mmarize the results of the applications

A.

As discussed previously, the summaryof my DCF conclusions is shown in Exhibit FJH-5

11

which consists of one page. As shown, the average of all the DCF cost rates range from

12

a low of 13.7% for the proxy group of four gas pipeline companies applicable to 2002

13

to a high of 16.4% applicable to the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies for 2001.

14

5.

The Risk Premium Model (RP~n

15

5.a

Theoretical

16

Q.

Please describe the theoretical basis of the RPM.

17

A.

The RPM is based upon the theory that the cost of common equity capital is greater than

Basis

18

the prospective company-speci fie cost rate for long-term debt capital. In other words, it

19

is the expected cost rate for long-term debt capital plus a premium to compensate

20

common shareholders for the added risk of being unsecured and last-in-line in any claim

21

on a fimJ's assets and earnings.

29

Q.

Some assert tbat the RPM is another form of the CAPM. Do you agree?

A.

Generally yes, but there is a very significant distinction between the two models. The

RPM and CAPM both add a "risk premium" to an interest rate. The use ofa prospective

yield on a U.S. Government Security as the risk-free rate of return in the CAPM by

definition cannot reflect any company-specific risk. In contrast, the use of a prospective

company-specific, long-term bond yield in the RPM fully reflects company-specific risk

because the bond rating reflects an assessment by the rating agency of all diversifiable

business and financial risks. Consequently, although similar in a very broad way, they

are actually two separate and distinct cost of common equity models and recognized as
such in the financial literature.

10

I1

S.b

Application

of the RPM

12

Q.

Please describe your application

13

A.

My application is contained in Exhibit FJH-9 which consists of nine pages. Page I

of the RPM.

14

contains a summary of the results. Page 2 contains notes relative to page I. Page 3

15

contains a summary of my judgment of equity risk premiums while pages 4 through 9

16

contain the details related to the inputs of equity risk premiums upon which my

17

conclusions are based. I estimated the prospective cost rates oflong-term debt capital for

18

each proxy group based upon the average bond rating of each group in each period, i.e.,

19

2001,2002,

20

of Exhibit FJH-9.

going-forward, which are summarized in Line Nos. 5,12 and 19 on page I

21

I then estimated the equity risk premiums through the use of two different studies.

22

The first study is based upon the use ofa long-ternl historical market equity risk premium
30

averaged with a forecasted market equity risk premiwn allocated to each proxy group in

each period by use of each group's average beta. The second study is based upon a long-

term historical study using the actual holding period returns of public utilities with bonds

rated Baa by Moody's Investors Service which is equivalent to BBB by S&P.

Q.

of Exhibit FJH-9.

6
7

Please explain the first equity risk premium study as shown on pages 4 through 6

A.

For each year, Iutilized the then most current arithmetic mean returns on the S&P 500

Composite Index as shown on Line No. I of pages 4 through 6 of Exhibit FJH-9. For

example, on page 4, Line No. I, relative to the going-forward period, the average total

10

return (1926-2002, inclusive) was 12.2%. From that return Isubtracted the arithmetic

II

mean return on long-term, high-grade corporate bonds of6.2% (e.g., Line No.2, page 4).

12

The result is a long-term historical market equity risk premium of 6.0~{'. Similar

13

calculations result in historical market equityriskpremiwns

14

to 2002 and 2001, respectively, as shown on pages 5 and 6 of Exhibit FJH-9.

of7.0% and 7.4% applicable

15

Ithen relied upon the Value Line forecasted total market returns at each date (e.g.,

16

Line No.4, page 4) and subtracted the prospective yield on Aaa rated corporate bonds

17

(e.g., Line No.5, page 4). The result is a forecasted market equity risk premium of

18

11.0% applicable to the going-forward period. Similarly calculated results are 9.3% and

19

12.1% applicable to the years 2002 and 2001, respectively. I then averaged the long-term

20

historical and forecasted market equity risk premiums (e.g .. Line No.7, pages 4 through

21

6 of Exhibit FJH-9) and allocated the average equity risk premiums using the average

22

beta for each proxy group (e.g., Line No.8, pages 4 through 6). Each application results
31

in group-specific equity risk premiums which are shown on Line No.9,

through 6).

Q.

Why did you use long-term historical equity risk premiums in your analyses?

A.

The data were derived from Ibbotson Associates' 2000, 2001 and 2003 - Stocks, Bonds,

Bills and Inflation -- Valuation Edition Yearbooks as indicated in footnote I to pages 4

through 6 of Exhibit FJH-9. Under the DCF theory as applied in rate regulation, an

infinite holding period is presumed.

terms, a very long period of time) future is the arithmetic mean of actually experienced

equity risk premiums over a very long historical time period. Ibbotson Associates points

10

out that without an appreciation of the very-long past it would have been statistically

11

improbable to predict the stock market crash of 1987 because the 1929-31 period would

12

not have been factored in.

13

Q.

15

Why did you use the arithmetic


compound)

14

pages 4

A.

The best estimation of the infinite (in practical

mean return

rates instead of the geometric (or

mean return rates in your calculations of equity risk premium?

Historical total returns and equity risk premium spreads differ in size and direction over

16

time. The arithmetic mean is important because it provides insight into the variance and

17

standard deviation of returns. Investors require insight into the potential for volatility,

18

i.e., variance, when contemplating making an investment. Insight into the variance can

19

only be obtained by the use of the arithmetic mean of historical returns. Absent valuable

20

insight into the potential variance of returns, there can be no meaningful evaluation of

21

prospective risk. Ifinvestors relied upon the geometric mean of historical returns, they

~-

would have no insight into the potential variance of future returns because the geometric

")")

32

mean relates the changes over many periods to a constant rate of change, thereby

obviating the year-to-year fluctuations, or variance, critical to risk analysis. Workpaper

No.4 to Exhibit FJH-9 (FJH WP-9) contains the full content of the explanation by

Ibbotson Associates as to why the use of the arithmetic mean is appropriate when

estimating the cost of capital. It conlirms that equity risk premiums are random with

serial correlation near zero. Because they are random, the best estimate of the future is

the arithmetic mean of all the historic equity risk premiums.

Q.

Please explain the second equity risk premium study which you utilized.

A.

The second risk premium study is one performed by my firm relative to the Standard &

10

Poor's Public Utility Index. It covers the periods fTom 1928 through the closest prior

II

year-end available preceding each of the locked-in years and the going-forward period

12

as shown on pages 7 through 9 of Exhibit FJH-9. After the deduction fTomtotal returns

13

of the yields on the Salomon Brothers' high grade corporate bond index, a utility equity

14

risk premium is derived (e.g., Line 3, pages 7 through 9). After adjustments to reflect

15

average bond yield differentials between high grade corporate and the average bond

16

rating ofthe proxy groups of oil and gas pipeline companies, respectively, (e.g., Line 4,

17

pages 7 through 9), adjusted equity risk premiums were derived (e.g., Line 5, pages 7

18

through 9).

19

Q.

Please discuss your findings of RPM cost rates.

20

A.

They are shown in summary form on page I of Exhibit FJH-9. They range fToma low

21

of J 1.5% for the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies applicable to the going-

33

forward period to a high of 13.7% applicable to the four gas pipeline holding companies
for the year 2001.

6.

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

6.a

Theoretical

Q.

Please explain the theoretical basis of the CAPM.

A.

The CAPM defines risk as the covariability of a security's returns with the market's

returns. This covariability is measured by beta ("a"), an index measure of an individual

security's variability relative to the market.

variability while a beta greater than 1.0 indicates greater variability than the market.

10

Basis

A beta less than 1.0 indicates lower

The CAPM assumes that all non-market or unsystematic risk, can be eliminated

II

through diversification.

12

called market, or systematic, risk.

13

compensation for risks that cannot be eliminated through diversification.

14

risks are caused by socioeconomic events that affect the returns on all assets. In essence,

15

the model is applied by adding a market risk premium to a risk-free rate ofretum.

16

market risk premium is adjusted proportionally to reflect the systematic risk of the

17

individual security relative to the market as measured by beta.

The risk that cannot be eliminated through diversification is


The model presumes that investors require

34

Systematic

The

6.b

Traditional

CAPM

Q.

Please describe the traditional

A.

The traditional CAPM is expressed as:

CAPM.

4
Where:R,

5
6

Return rate on the common stock

Risk-free rate ofreturn

Return rate on the market as a whole

8
9

Adjusted beta (volatility of the security


relative to the market as a whole)

10

Numerous tests of the CAPM have confirmed its validity. These tests have measured the

I1

extent to which security returns and betas are related as predicted by the CAPM.

12

6.c

The Empirical CAPM

13

Q.

Please describe the empirical CAPM (ECAPM).

14

A.

The ECAPM discussed by Morin reflects the reality that the empirical Security Market

15

Line (USML") described by the CAPM is not as steeply sloped as the predicted SML in

16

the traditional CAPM. Morin" states:

17
18
19

At the empirical level, there have been countless tests of the


CAPM to determine to what extent security returns and betas are
related in the manner predicted by the CAPM.12 The results of

"

"

hL

alp. 321.

For a summary oflhe empirical evidence on the CAPM, see Jensen (19721 and Ross (1978). The major
empirical lesls of lhe CAPM were published by Friend and Blume (1975 I, Black, Jensen, and Scholes
(1972), Miller and Scholes (19721, Blume and Friend (1973), Blume and Husic (1973), Fama and Macbelh
(1973), Basu (1977), Reinganum (l98IB), Litzenberger and Ramaswamy (1979), Banz (1981.1, Gibbons
(1982), Stambaugh (1982), and Shanken (1985). CAPM evidence in Ihe Canadian conlexi is available in
Morin (1981).

35

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

the tests support the idea that beta is related to security returns,
that the risk-return tradeoff is positive, and that the relationship
is linear. The contradictory finding is that the empirical Security
Market Line (SML) is not as steeply sloped as the predicted SML.
With few exceptions, the empirical studies agree that the implied
intercept term exceeds the risk-free rate and the slope term is less
than predicted by the CAPM. That is, low-beta securities earn
returns somewhat higher than the CAPM would predict, and highbeta securities earn less than predicted.

10

* * *

I1

Therefore, the empirical evidence suggests that the expected


return on a security is related to its risk by the following
approximation:

12
13
14

where x is a fraction to be determined empirically. [T]he value


of x that best explains the observed relationship is between 0.25
and 0.30. If x = 0.25, the equation becomes:

15
16
17
18
19

* * *
1will use the more conservative value of x, 0.25, in my applications of the ECAPM.

20
21

6.d

Applications

22

Q.

Did you apply the traditional

and empirical forms ofthe CAPM to the proxy grou ps

of oil and gas pipeline companies?

23
24

of the CAPM

Yes. The results are summarized on page 1 of Exhibit FJH-10 which consists of seven

A.

25

pages. Pages 2 through 4 of Exhibit FJH-lO contain the details of my applications by

"

Jd., at pp. 335-36.

36

group, company and period.


through 4.

Pages 5 through 7 contain notes related to pages 2

Q.

What risk-free rates did you utilize aDd why?

A.

In both the CAPM and ECAPM, I utilized the average consensus forecasts by the

approximately 50 economists who regularly respond to surveys by Blue Chip Financial

Forecasts. Ispecifically relied upon the consensus forecasts of the yields on long-term

U.S. Treasury Bonds (yields are no longer available on 30-year U.S. Treasury Bonds) for

the subsequent six calendar quarters reported in the January I issue for each of the years

200 I and 2002 and the August I,2003, issue. Irely on those yields because the yield on

10

long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds is almost risk-free and its term is consistent with the

II

long-term cost of capital to public utilities measured by the yields on long-term utility

12

bonds and more closely matches the long-term investment horizon inherent in utilities'

13

cornmon stocks. Moreover, use of the long-term U.S. Treasury Bond yield as the proxy

14

for the risk-free rate is consistent with the long-term investment horizon, which is

15

presumed to be infinite, in the standard regulatory version of the DCF model employed

16

in proceedings such as these. In addition, Ibbotson Associates" states:


A cornmon choice for the nominal riskless rate is the yield on a
U.S. Treasury Security. The ability of the U.S. government to
create money to fulfill its debt obligations under virtually any
scenario makes U.S. Treasury securities practically default-free.
While interest rate changes cause government obligations to
fluctuate in price, investors face essentially no default risk as to
either coupon payment or return of principal. The horizon of the
chosen Treasury security should match the horizon of whatever

17
18

19
20
21

~'l'l

23

24

"

Stocks. Bonds. Bills and Inflation: 2003 Yearbook - Valuation Edition. Ibbotson Associates, Chicago.
IL, p. 53.

37

is being valued. When valuating a business that is being treated


as a going concern. the appropriate Treasurv yield should be that
of a long-ternl Treasury bond. Note that the horizon is a function
of the investment. not the investor. If an investor plans to hold
stock in a company for only five years, the yield on a five-year
Treasury note would not be appropriate since the company will
continue to exist beyond those five years. (underlining added for
emphasis)

2
3
4

5
6
7
8
9

Q.

of the CAPM and ECAPM?

10
II

A.

I used the arithmetic average of the long-term historical returns on the market from

12

Ibbotson Associates for the same reasons provided previously regarding equity risk

13

premiums in my applications of the RPM. I explain in Notes 1,7 and 12 on pages 5 and

14

6 of Exhibit FJH-I 0 how the historical, as well as the Value Line forec.asted, total market

15

returns were calculated. From each total market return I subtracted the risk-free rates of

16

return to derive the market risk premiums.

17

Q.

What hetas did you use'!

18

A.

I used the most recent Value Line adjusted betas which were available to investors on or

19

about December 31, preceding each locked-in year and the most recent available on

20

August I, 2003, as applicable to the going-forward period. The betas are shown by

21

company, group and year on pages 2 through 4 of Exhibit FJH-I O.

22

6.d.l

Traditional

23

Q.

What cost rates resulted from your applications

24

A.

As shown in summary fornl on page I of Exhibit FJH-l 0, the cost rates range from a low

25

How did you determine the total returns on the market to use in your applications

CAPM Results
of the traditional

CAPM?

of 10.9% for the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies applicable to the going-

38

forward period, to a high of 14.2% for the proxy group of four gas pipeline holding
2
3

6.d.2

Empirical CAPM Results

Q.

What cost rates resulted from your application

A.

These rates are also summarized on page I of Exhibit F JH-l O. They range from a low

of the ECAPM?

of 11.7% for the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies applicable to the going-

forward period to a high of 14.8% for the proxy group of four gas pipeline holding

companies applicable to the year 2001.

companies applicable to the year 2001.

6.d.3

Summary ofCAPM

Conclusion

10

Q.

What are your conclusions of CAPM cost rates?

II

A.

Although I have shown both the traditional and EeAPM cost rates and the averages of

12

both for each period, Irely upon only the ECAPM results in order to be consistent with

13

Order No. 151. The ECAPM cost rates range from a low of 11.7% for the proxy group

14

oftive oil pipeline companies applicable to the going-forward period to a high of 14.8%

15

for the proxy group of four gas pipeline holding companies applicable to the year 2001.

16

7.

Comparable

Earnings Model ICEI'D

17

7.a

Theoretical

18

Q.

Please describe the theoretical basis of the CEM.

19

A.

The comparable earnings standard recognizes the fundamental economic concept of

Basis

20

opportunity cost. This concept states that the cost of using any resource -- land, labor

21

and/or capital -- for a specific purpose is the return that could have been eamed in the

22

next best alternative use. The opportunity cost to an investor in a utility's common stock
39

is what that capital would yield in an alternative investment of similar risk.

opportunity cost principle is consistent with one of the fundamental principles of utility

price regulation: It is intended to act as a surrogate for competition.

The problem in using returns on book equity or net worth (the ROEs) of non-

price regulated companies operating in the competitive marketplace is determining

whether such companies are similar in risk to the regulated utility. The ROEs of other

similar price regulated firms either should not be relied upon at all or should be used with

extreme caution because they reflect the result of regulatory awards. Consequently, they

may not be indicative of what could have been earned in a competitive market.

10

Consequently, application of the CEM is most appropriately implemented by examining

11

the ROEs of similar risk, domestic, non-price regulated firms.

12

7.b

Market-Based

13

Q.

Is your approacb to tbe selection of comparable risk, domestic, non-price regulated

Selection of Comparable

Risk Companies

companies market-based?

14

The

15

A.

Yes.

16

Q.

Please explain.

17

A.

My application of the CEM is market-based because the selection of the comparable risk,

18

domestic, non-price regulated firms is based upon statistics derived from the market

19

prices paid by investors, i.e., the betas and related statistics utilized in the selection

20

process result from regression analyses of market prices over the most recent five years

21

available from Value Line just prior to the beginning of each applicable period, i.e.,

22

August 2003, the going-forward period, and the locked-in years 2002 and 2001. Under
40

the EMH, the market prices paid by investors reflect investors' perceptions of all risks.

Consequently, the bases of selection resulted in proxy groups of non-price regulated

firms comparable in total risk (the sum ofnon-diversifiablemarket

company-specific

four/three gas pipeline holding companies, respectively. The criteria used in the selection

of the non-price regulated proxy companies comparable to each proxy group were:

7
8
9
10

risks) to each of the two proxy groups, i.e., the five oil and the

I.

They must be domestic, non-price regulated companies, i.e., non-utilities.

2.

They must have a meaningful projected five-year rate of return on net


worth or partner's capital of less than 20% as reported in Value Line
Investment Survey (Standard Edition).

3.

Their betas must lie within plus or minus two standard deviations of the
average unadjusted betas of each proxy group.

4.

Their standard errors ofthe regressions must lie within plus or minus two
standard deviations ofthe standard errors of the regressions of each proxy
group.

II

12
13
14
15
16
17
IS

risk and diversifiable

19

Q.

Wby are tbe companies selected comparable in total risk to eacb group?

20

A.

Betas are measures of non-diversifiable systematic market risk. Companies which have

21

similar betas have similar systematic risk. The standard errors of the regressions (the

22

standard errors of the estimate resulting from the regression equations from which each

23

company's

24

diversifiable company-specific

25

measure the extent to which events specific to a company affect its stock price. In

26

essence, they reflect the residual diversifiable risks of a firm which are not reflected in

27

beta, which is a measure of non-diversifiable, market, risk. Companies with similar

beta was derived by Value Line) were used to measure each tirnl's
risks.

Thus, the standard errors of the regressions

41

standard errors have similar diversi fiable risks. Consequently, companies which have

similar betas and similar standard errors of the regressions have similar total investment

risk (the sum ofnon-diversifiable,

market, risks measured by similar standard errors) because those statistics result from

regression analyses of market prices which reflect investors' perception of all risks

consistent with the EMH.

market, risk measured by beta and diversifiable, non-

All of the non-price regulated fimls were ehosen based on ranges of betas and

standard errors of the regressions. The ranges were based upon two standard deviations

from the average standard deviation of the beta and the standard error of the regression

10

for each respective proxy group. The use of two standard deviations reflects 95.5% of

I1

the universe of comparable companies, thus assuring comparability of total investment

12

risk.

13

It is true that individual business and financial risks will vary, but ifthe collective

14

average of the group of non-price regulated companies is chosen as a proxy for each

15

proxy group of oil pipeline and gas pipeline holding companies in each period, then the

16

total, or aggregate, combined non-diversifiable market risk and diversi fiable non-market

17

risks are similar. Thus, because the non-price regulated companies are selected based

18

upon market data, they are comparable in total risk (even though individual risks may

19

vary) to the proxy groups of oil and gas pipeline companies. Consequently, the expected

20

rates ofeamings on the book equity of those non-price regulated companies comparable

21

to the oil and gas pipeline proxy groups are appropriate indicators of equity cost rates for

22

TAPS. They are appropriate because they are rates which are applicable to the common
42

equity financed portion of a depreciated original cost rate ("DOC") (or net book value)
rate base. A DOC rate base is also consistent with Order No. 151.

2
3

7.c

Applications

Q.

Please describe the results of your applications

A.

As explained above, my market-based selection process was applied to the average

6
7

of the CEM
of the CEM.

regression statistics for the oil and gas proxy groups for each period.
The results are shown in Exhibit FJH-II which consists of 12 pages. Page I is

a summary of the results by group and period.

Pages 2 through 9 contain all of the

details, while pages 10 through 12 contain all the notes relevant to pages 2 through 9.

10

The number of comparable companies varies by period for each group because of the

II

different regression statistics used in the selection process for each period.

12

On pages 2 through 9, I have shown the five-year projected ROEs available to

13

investors at the time they could have formulated opinions of common equity cost rate

14

relative to each period.

IS

I relied on the median projected ROEs. As a result, the CEM cost rates range

16

from a low of 11.8% for the proxy group offive oil pipeline companies applicable to the

17

year 2001 to a high of 14.5% for the proxy group offour gas pipeline holding companies

18

applicable to the year 2001 as shown on page I of Exhibit FJH-I1.

43

8.

Recommended

Q.

How did .r0u arrive at }'our recommended

common equit} cost rates for each

period?

3
4

Common Equity Cost Rates

A.

Afier applying all four cost of common equity models as described above, I observed the

average common equity cost rate for each group for each period as shown on Exhibit

FJH-2. Consistent with Order No. 151, Irelied upon the two proxy groups, namely of

five oil and four or three gas pipeline companies (three for the going-forward period

based on August 2003 information) respectively for the reasons discussed previously.

I observed that in certain instances the results of the application of a single cost of

10

common equity model may be disparate from the results of the application of other cost

11

of common equity models. For example, on Exhibit FJH-2. it is shown that the average

12

DCF cost rate for the proxy group of three gas pipeline holding companies is 16.1% in

13

August 2003 applicable to the going-forward period in contrast to the range of the other

14

cost rates (i.e. from the RP, CAPM, and CFM models) which range between 12.0% and

15

12.5%. In other words, the aberrant cost rate in this instance is the DCF cost rate. This

16

exemplifies why the use of all four common equity models is essential and why the

17

average cost rate of 13.3% for the group of three gas pipeline companies for the going-

18

forward period is the most relevant based only on that proxy group. Similarly, it is also

19

shown on Exhibit FJH-2 that the average DCF cost rate ofl6.4%

20

five oil pipeline companies is disparate from the range of 11.8% to 13.2% for the cost

21

rates derived from the other cost of equity models applicable to the year 200 I.

44

for the proxy group of

After review of the average cost rates for each proxy group in each period with
2

reliance on the midpoint of the average cost rate for each proxy group the following

common equity cost rates are applicable to TAPS without and with regard to any risk

premium adder for early period risks:

5
6
7

Recommended Common Equity


Cost Rates
Period
Going
Forward
2002
2001

8
9
10
II

12

Without Regard to Premium


for Added Risk

13

Risk Premium Adder (1)

N/A

Total Equity Cost Recommendation

14

(1)

15
16
17

18

III.

19

Q.

A.

12.95%

13.15%

14.30%

0.375

0.75

13.525%

15.05~"

75 basis points per Order No. 151 ends 6/30/02. Thus, only one-half, or 37.5
basis points applies to 2002. No added premium is applicable to the goingforward period.

OVERALL COSTS OF CAPITAL AND FAlRRATES OF RETURN


What are tbe overall costs of capital and fair rates of return which result from your
recommended

20
21

12.95%

capital structure

ratios, debt and common equity cost rates?

All are summarized in Exhibit FJR-I. My recommended overall costs of capital and fair

22

rates of return, which include allowance for added risk premium through June 30, 2002,

23

are as follows:

45

2
3

Recommended Overall Costs of Capital


Period

Going Forward

9.46%

10.01%

11.41%

'----~-------_.~

Q.

A.

Such application would also be consistent with this Commission's Order

No. 151.

10

Yes. The ratemaking norm includes the use of a DOC rate base in virtually every state
jurisdiction.

overall costs of capital and fair rates of return applicable

to a DOC cost rate base?

7
8

Are your recommended

11

V.

ANSWERING

TESTIMONY

12

V.A

TAPS CARRIERS'

13

Q.

Please summarize

14

A.

Although I agree with the use of the five oil pipeline proxy companies utilized by TAPS

WITNESS WILLIAMSON
your answering testimony.

IS

Carriers' Witness Dr. Williamson, I will explain why I disagree with the composition of

16

his gas pipeline proxy groups for each of the three periods I analyzed, namely 2001,

17

2002, and the going-forward period. As a result of his inclusion of inappropriate gas

18

pipeline proxies, his recommended capital structure ratios are inappropriate.

19

show that Dr. Williamson's failure to rely upon the CAPM, Risk Premium (uRP"), and

20

CEM as employed in this Commission's Order No. 151 is incorrect even though he states

21

at the bottom of page I and the top of page 2 of JPW T-2 that he was asked to apply the

22

approach adopted by this Conmlission in Order No. 151. As a result of his failure to
46

r will also

apply the approach adopted by this Commission in Order No. 151, his recommended

common equity cosl rates are overstated; and by the inclusion of a full 75 basis points

added risk premium for early periods beyond June 30, 2002, his recommended rates of

return for 2002 and the going-forward period are overstated. Moreover, by averaging his

weighted costs of capital for all periods, and including the full 75 basis points for all

periods, the overstatement of the weighted costs (or overall cost of capital) for each

period is exacerbated.

equity cost rates which rely solely on the DCF model, contrary to Order No. 151.

I will show that his criticisms of the CAPM, RP and CEM models utilized in

10

Order No. 151 are incorrect and that his sole reliance on DCF is inconsistent with Order

11

No. 151 and his own prior testimonies.

12

Q.

You indicated that you have differences with the gas pipeline proxy companies

13

utilized by Dr. Williamson for eacb period. Please explain the differences and why

14

you believe Dr. Williamson's

15

It is further exacerbated by his recommendation of common

A.

choices are incorrect.

Let me preface my response by stating that other than the exceptions discussed below,

16

I agree with the other companies included or excluded for the reasons stated by

17

Dr. Williamson in JPW T-2 at page 4.

18

My selection of the gas pipeline holding companies for use in determining capital

19

structures, cost of equity, etc., applicable to 2001 are based on information available at

20

the end of calendar year 2000. Dr. Williamson included Coastal Corp. I do not believe

21

that Coastal Corp. is appropriate to be included in a proxy group for use in determining

22

a fair rate of return for the year 200 I. On January 1S, 2000. EI Paso Energy Corp.
47

announced that it was buying Coastal Corp. (See pages 1-2 of Exhibit Flli-12).

Moreover, it is also shown in the Value Line issue of December 22, 2000 (page 3 of

Exhibit Flli-12) that Coastal's merger with El Paso Energy was imminent. In fact, the

merger was consummated on January 29,2001.

as a proxy gas pipeline company applicable to 200 I is incorrect.

Dr. Williamson did not include Kinder Morgan, Inc. in his proxy group used to

establish a fair rate of return for the year 2001, i.e., based on year-end 2000 information.

As shown by the information on the December 22,2000, Value Line (page 4 of Exhibit

Flli-12), Kinder Morgan, Inc. should be included in the proxy group applicable to 2001

10

because 86% of its operating income was derived from gas transportation and storage.

II

With regard to the group of gas pipeline companies utilized for purposes of

12

estimating a fair rate of return for the year 2002, i.e., based on year-end 2001

13

information, the only disagreement J have with Dr. Williamson's selected group is that

14

his inclusion of Northern Border Partners is inappropriate.

15

should not bc included as a proxy company for the following reasons: It has been

16

impacted by the Emon bankruptcy; two of its three general partners are subsidiaries of

17

Emon; Emon possesses the overwhelming majority of voting power over it; it has no

18

employees; Emon could cause the two major general partners to file for bankruptcy; and

19

finally as stated by Northern Border Partners:

20
21

_~
')')

Therefore, inclusion of Coastal Corp.

23
24

Northern Border Partners

Our partnership agreement requires that each general partner


make additional capital contributions to us when we sell common
units. Enron may determine that it is not in the best interest of all
of its creditors and other constituencies in bankruptcy to make
these capital contributions to Northern Plains and Pan Border.
48

Enron could therefore decide not to allow us to pursue


acquisitions financed with the issuance of additional cornrnon
units. (From page 39 of the 2002 Securities and Exchange
Cornrnission Form 10-K for Northern Border Partners, L.P.)

1
2
3
4

Excerpted pages from the 2002 SEC Form 10K of Northern Border Partners, L.P.,

including page 39 referred to above, are contained in Workpaper No. I to ExhibitFJH-12

(FJH WP-12).

Dr. Williamson also included Northern Border Partners in the group of gas

pipeline companies as being applicable to the going-forward period. The inclusion of

10

Northern Border Partners in that group is also incorrect for the reasons discussed above

II

which are still applicable.

12

Q.

Wby is Dr. Williamson's inclusion of75 basis points incorrect?

13

A.

Conceptually the inclusion is correct; however, it is misapplied as is his average fair rate

14

of return. Order No. 151 specified that the added risk premium was to end "mid-2002."

15

Dr. Williamson included the full 75 basis points for 2002 as well as his 2003 and April

16

2003 calculations of cornrnon equity cost rates and overall or weighted costs of capital

17

which are surnrnarized on Exhibit JPW-2. Thus, he has extended the premium beyond

18

its applicability.

19

capital (his 11.08% shown on JPW-2), the added risk premium would inappropriately be

20

further extended beyond its applicable termination date of June 30, 2002.

21

overstatement, of course, exacerbates the overstatement of the weighted costs of capital

22

for all the reasons discussed above.

Moreover, by recornrnending the use of an average weighted cost of

49

Such

tbat be performed.

proposed by Tesoro's Witness Mr. Hanley ... " Do you bave any comment?
A.

He cbaracterizes

it as using "tbe risk premium metbodology

Yes. The analysis performed by Dr. Williamson and contained in Exhibit JPW -6 is not

the Risk Premium Methodology which I utilized and it is not the methodology relied

upon by this Commission in establishing its allowed equity return rates for the years

1997,1998, 1999, and 2000 in Order No. 151. Dr. Williamson's analysis is based upon

the "backcasting" methodology recommended by Williams' Witness Gaske as modified

by the Commission in that proceeding. Consequently, his analyses have nothing to do

10

with my RP methodology upon which the Commission did rely for the years 1997

11

through 2000.

12

Q.

Please address Dr. Williamson's conclusions about tbe risk premium metbod based

13

on bis risk premium analysis contained in Lines 15-20, page 12 of JPW T-2 and bis

14

regression analysis sbown in Exbibit JPW-6?

15

At pages 11-13 of JPW T-2, Dr. Williamson discusses tbe Risk Premium analysis

Q.

A.

His analysis demonstrates

the correctness of conventional wisdom, confirmed by

16

Ibbotson Associates, i.e., that equity risk premiums are random. The graph on page 2 of

17

Exhibit JPW-6 confirms that equity risk premiums are not constant. In my view, the

18

Commission should be congratulated for recognizing that equity risk premiums are

19

random and not constant.

20

Q.

Are tbere data wbicb demonstrate

21

A.

Yes. The information shown in Exhibit FJH-13 has been excerpted from Ibbotson

22

tbat equity risk premiums are not constant?

Associates, SSS' Valuation Edition, 2003 Yearbook.


50

Graph 5-3 (page 2 of Exhibit

FJH-13) shows equity risk premiums realized per year from 1926 through 2002. In the
2

discussion by Ibbotson Associates at pages 3 and 4 of Exhibit FJH-13. they demonstrate

that the equity risk is random as confirmed by the serial correlation of historical 1926-

2002 equity risk premiums of 0.06, i.e., essentially zero. They state:

5
6
7
8
9
10
II
12
13
14
15

A serial correlation near zero indicates that the returns are random
or unpredictable from one period to the next. ... The significance
of this evidence is that the realized equity risk premium next year
will not be dependent on the realized equity risk premium from
this year .... For example, if this year's difference between the
riskless rate and the return on the stock market is higher than last
year's, that does not imply that next year's will be higher than this
years. It is as likely to be higher as it is lower. The best estimate
of the expected value ofa variable that has behaved randomly in
the past is the average (or arithmetic mean) of its past values.

Q.

Do you have any evidence to confirm that, because the equity risk premium

16

random,

17

represents

18

A.

that the arithmetic

mean of the long-term

historical

is

risk premiums

the best expectation of the future value?

Yes. That information is shown in Exhibit FJH-14, which consists offive pages. Page I

19

shows the returns by year on large company stocks for all of the years 1926-2002. It is

20

easily noted that there is considerable volatility. This means that as total returns vary,

21

so do equity risk premia. As can be seen by the chart on page 2 of Exhibit FJH-4, this

22

results in a normal distribution when the returns are plotted over the time period. As

23

Ibbotson Associates state:

24
25
26

The best estimate of the expected value of a variable that has


behaved randomly in the past is the average (or arithmetic mean)
of its past values. (Page 4 of Exhibit FJH-13)

51

Thus, the arithmetic mean of those long-term historic equity risk premiums

represents the best expectation of the future. Pages 3 through 5 of Exhibit FJH-14

contain the explanation by Ibbotson Associates as to why the use of the arithmetic mean

is appropriate when estimating the cost of capital. This is because only the arithmetic

mean takes into account year-to-year fluctuations. Risk assessment is the product of the

potential for volatility.

In view of the foregoing, it should be clear that the methodology that I employ in

the application of the RPM recognizes that equity risk premiums are random. It is not

the methodology upon which Dr. Williamson's analysis is based.

10

Dr. Williamson rejects tbe use oftbe CAPM model as well as tbe ECAPM and CEM

11

metbodologies

12

Is be correct in rejecting the use of the CAPM and ECAPM metbodologies?

wbicb be claims all depend upon tbe reliability of beta coefficients.

13

A.

No.

14

Q.

In JPW T-2, Dr. Williamson

15

model, altbougb

16

weaknesses."

17

Q.

A.

in recent

stated witb regard to tbe CAPM, "is a respected


years it bas been increasingly

criticized

for its

Have you any comment?

Yes. As noted in the Direct portion of this testimony, the financial literature is replete

18

with references to the CAPM and the encouragement of its use. Moreover, the most

19

often-cited critique of the CAPM was by Fama and French in 1992. Their article was

20

soundly rebutted by an article published in the Fall of 1993 in the Journal of Portfolio

21

Management by Fischer Black, the Black of the famous Sharpe, Lintner, Black SLB

22

model which Fama and French referred to often in their article.


52

1
2
3

Fama and French claim to find evidence against this model. They
say that their results 'seem to contradict' the evidence that the
slope of the line relating expected return and beta is positive.

4
5

This is a misstatement, in my view. Even in the period they


choose to highlight, they cannot rule out the hypothesis that the
slope of the line is positive. Their results for beta and average
return are perfectly consistent with the SLB Model.

6
7

12

Moreover, if the line is really flat, that implies dramatic


investment opportunity for those who use beta. A person who
normally holds both stocks and bonds or stocks and cash can shift
to a portfolio of similar total risk but higher expected return by
emphasizing low-beta stocks.

13
14
15

Beta is a valuable investment tool if the line is as steep as the


CAPM predicts. It is even more valuable ifthe line is flat. No
matter how steep the line is, beta is alive and well (page 9).

16

Announcements of the death of beta seem premature. The


evidence that prompts such statements implies more uses for beta
than ever. Rational investors, who can borrow freely, whether
individuals or tirrns, should continue to use the CAPM and beta
to value investments and to choose portfolio strategy (page 17).

8
9

10
11

17

18
19

20

21

The Fischer Black article entitled Beta and Return, "Announcements of the 'death' of

22

beta seem premature" is contained in Miscellaneous Workpaper No. I (FJH Misc. WP).

23

Consistent with the EMH, investors are aware of Black's responses, as well as

24

the fact that the CAPM is still widely utilized and that beta is still readily available and

25

in demand.

53

Q.

2
3

bow its beta coefficients are calculated.


A.

Value Line does indicate how its beta coefficients are calculated. They utilize the Blume
methodology and do so by the fonnula: Adjusted Beta = .35 + .67 * Calculated Beta (see

Miscellaneous Workpaper No.2 (Fill Misc. WP.

Q.

Ibbotson Associates, in tbe SBBI Valuation Edition 2003 Yearbook indicate tbat

most investment advisory services utilize tbe Blume metbodology wbicb differs from

their own. Please comment.

A.

Value Line and the other beta services utilize the Blume methodology to adjust beta. The

10

use of Value Line betas is important because Value Line is an independent financial

I1

advisory service; it is not in the brokerage business; its subscription rate is inexpensive,

12

thereby making it very affordable for individual investors; and it is readily accessible in

13

the business reference section of better libraries.

14

100,000 subscribers and because the goal of an expert witness testifying to the cost of

15

common equity capital is to emulate investors, use of the Value Line betas is essential.

16

Q.

18

A.

Since Value Line has more than

Dr. Williamson also indicated tbat your CEM (Comparable


is dependent

17

Please comment.

At page 10 of J PW T -2, Dr. Williamson indicates tbat Value Line does not disclose

upon tbe reliability oftbe beta coefficient.

Earnings Metbodology)
Please comment.

1have explained in the Direct portion of this testimony that my CEM is market-based

19

because it relies upon the results of regression analyses of market prices to select

20

comparable non-price regulated domestic finns. The DCF model, which Dr. Williamson

21

favors in this proceeding to the exclusion of other cost of equity models, is predicated

""

upon the EMH in that it is presumed that market prices reflect the assessment by

LL

54

investors of all perceived risks. Those total risks include both market risks and non2

market risks. The selection of my proxy non-price regulated companies is based upon

the comparability of total, i.e., the aggregate of market and non-market risks. That is

why my selection is based upon not only comparable betas which measure market risk

but also upon comparable standard errors of the estimate which measure non-market

risks. For these reasons, and all of the foregoing, Dr. Williamson's criticism of my

application of the CEM is unfounded.

Q.

methodology.

in this proceeding,

advocates

sole reliance

He finds fault with the other methodologies

upon the DCF

relied upon by this

10

Commission in Order No. 151. Has Dr. Williamson consistently relied exclusively

II

upon the DCF methodology in testifying to the cost of capital?

12

No. In response to Tesoro Data Requests, Dr. Williamson provided a number of

13

testimonies that he has filed on behalf of various clients in a number of jurisdictions.

14

have included portions of three of his testimonies of recent years before three different

15

regulatory commissions and they are contained in Miscellaneous Workpaper No.3

16

(FJH Misc. WP). In each instance, Dr. Williamson relied upon multiple cost of common

17

equity methodologies.

18

On behalf of Northern Natural Gas Company before the Federal Energy Regulatory

19

Commission in Docket No. RP95-185-000 (] 995):

20
21
22
23

Dr. Williamson,

For example:

In determining the cost of common equity for gas pipelines in


general, I used three different methods. The three were: the
Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF); the Hope and Bluefield
method; and the Risk Premium Method.

55

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
II

Q.

Why did you use these three methods?

A.

No single method offers a completely reliable


determination of the cost of common equity. Furthermore,
from time to time one method may become more reliable
than the others. It is important not to rely always on a
single method, but to use several methods and compare
their results. (Bates No. JPW 000272, italics added for
emphasis).

On behalf of Green Mountain Power Corporation before the VemlOnt Public Service
Board. Docket No. 6107 (I998):
Q.

How did you go about updating the cost of common


equity for your set of representative companies?

A.

J began with the CAPMIRisk Premium method. I explain


that methodology in my direct testimony in Docket No.
5983. For risk measures, J made use of beta coefficients
published by the Value Line Investment Survey (Value
Line) and I also calculated beta coefficients myself. The
beta coefficients 1 calculated are reasonably close to the
Value Line coefficients, except for the GMP beta.
...Following application of the CAPMIRisk Premium
method, J applied the DCF method, a method I also
explained in my testimony in Docket No. 5983. (Bates
Nos. JPW 006473-74, italics added for emphasis).

12

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

On behalf of Empire State Pipeline Company before the Public Service Commission of

25

New York (Case No. not provided) (I995):

26
27

Q.

What methodologies
determination?

did you

28
29
30

A.

J used three methodologies that J have found appropriate


for determining the cost of common equity for a natural
gas pipeline ....

31

Q.

Please continue.

56

use to make

your

A.

2
3
4
5

6
7
8

9
10
11
12

My first methodology was the Discounted Cash Flow


(DCF) methodology ... .1 also used what I have termed the
Hope and Billefield method because it is based on the
proposition that a regulated utility must be accorded an
opportunity to compete successfully with unregulated
companies in the marketplace for capital. ....Finally, I
have used a risk premium/Capital Asset Pricing Model
method .... I do not believe it is appropriate to rely
exclusively on any single methodology and I have made a
practice of regularly applying all three. (Bates Nos. JPW
004708 and 004709, italics added for emphasis, except
Hope and Bluefield).

13

Q.

Does tbis conclude your testimony?

14

A.

Yes.

57

APPENDIX A

PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICA nONS


OF
FRANKJ.HANLEY,CRRA
PRESIDENT
AUS CONSULTANTS - UTILITY SERVICES

Appendix A
Page I of7

PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICA nONS OF FRANK J. HANLEY


EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND
1 am a graduate of Drexel University where 1 received a Bachelor of Science Degree from the
College of Business Administration. The principal courses required for this Degree include accounting,
economics, finance and other related courses.

I am also Certified by the Society of Utility and

Regulatory Financial Analysts, formerly the National Society of Rate of Return Analysts, as a Rate of
Return Analyst (CRRA).
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

In 1959,1 was employed by American WaterWorks Service Company, Inc., which is a whoUyowned subsidiary of American Water Works Company, Inc., the largest investor-owned water works
operation in the United States. I was assigned to its Treasury Department in Philadelphia until 1961.
During that period of time, 1 was heavily involved in the development of cash flow projections and
negotiations with banks for the establishment oflines of credit for all of the operating and subholding
companies in the system, which normally aggregated more than $100 million per year.
In 1961, I was assigned to its Accounting Department where 1remained until 1963 . During that
two-year period, I became intimately familiar with all aspects of a service company accounting system,
the nature of the services performed, and the methods of allocating costs. In 1963, I was reassigned
to its Treasury Department as a Financial Analyst. My duties consisted of those previously performed,
as well as the expanded responsibilities of assisting in the preparation of testimony and exhibits to be

presented to various public utility commissions in regard to fair rate of return and other financial
matters.

1 also designed and recommended financing programs for many of American's operating

Appendix A
Page 2 of7

subsidiaries and negotiated sales oflong-telln debt securities and preferred stock on their behalf either
directly with institutional investors or through investment bankers. I was elected Assistant Treasurer
of a number of operating subsidiaries in the Fall ofl967, just prior to accepting employment with the
Communications and Technical Services Division of the Philco-Ford Corporation located in Fort
Washington, Pennsylvania. While in the employ of the Philco-Ford organization, as a Senior Financial
Analyst, I had responsibility for the pricing negotiations and analysis of acceptable rates of return to the
corporation for all types of contract proposals with various agencies of the U.S. Government and
foreign governments.

In the Summer of 1969, I accepted a position with the Financial Division of The Philadelphia
National Bank.

I was elected Financial Planning Officer of the bank in December 1970. While

employed with The Philadelphia National Bank, my responsibilities included preparation of the annual
and five-year profit plans. In the compilation of these plans, I had to perform detailed analyses and
measure the various levels of profitability for each organizational unit. I also assisted correspondent
banks in matters of recapitalization and merger, made recommendations and studies for their use before
the various regulatory bodies having jurisdiction over them.
In September 197 I, I joined AUS Consultants - Utility Services Group as Vice President. I was
elected Senior Vice President in May 1975. I was elected President in September 1989.
EXPERT WITNESS OUALIFICA TIONS
I have offered testimony as an expert witness on the subjects of fair rate of return and utility
financial matters in approximately 300 various cases and dockets before the following agencies and
courts: before the Alaska Public Utilities Commission and its successor the Regulatory Commission

Appendix A
Page 3 of?

of Alaska, the Arizona Corporation Commission, the Arkansas Public Service Commission, the
California Public Utilities Commission, the Public Utilities Control Authority of Connecticut, the
Delaware Public Service Commission, the Florida Public Service Commission, Hawaii Public Utilities
Commission, the Idaho Public Utilities Commission, the lllinois Commerce Commission, the Indiana
Public Utility Regulatory Commission, the Iowa Utilities Board, the Public Service Commission of
Kentucky, the Maryland Public Service Commission, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities,
the Michigan Public Service Commission, the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, the Missouri
Public Service Commission, the Public Service Commission ofNevada, the New Jersey Board of Public
Utilities, the New Mexico State Corporation Commission, the Public Service Commission of the State
of New York, the North Carolina Utilities Commission, the Ohio Public Utilities Commission, the
Oklahoma Corporation Commission, the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, the Rhode Island
Public Utilities Commission, the Tennessee Public Service Commission, the Public Service Board of
the State ofVennont,

the Virginia State Corporation Commission, the Public Services Commission of

the Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission, the
Public Service Commission of West VIrginia, the Wisconsin Public Service Commission, the Federal
Power Commission and its successor the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

I have testified

before the New Jersey Division of Tax Appeals and the United States Bankruptcy Court - Middle
District of Pennsylvania with regard to the economic valuation of utility property. Also, I have testified
before the U.S. Tax Court in Washington D.C. as an expert witness on the value of closely held utility
common stock in a contested Federal Estate Tax case.
In addition, I have appeared as a Staff rate of return witness for the Arizona Corporation

Appendix A
Page 4 of?

Commission, the Delaware Public Service Commission

and the Virgin Islands Public Services

Commission. I have testified on the fair rate of return on behalf of the City of New Orleans, Louisiana,
and also acted as project manager for my inn in representing the City in the 1980-1981 rate proceeding
of New Orleans Public Services, Inc. The City of New Orleans then had, as it does now, regulatory
authority with regard to the retail rates charged by New Orleans Public Service, Inc., for electric and
natural gas service.

I have also acted as a consultant to the District of Columbia Public Service

Commission itself -- not in the capacity of Staff.


I have testified before a number of local and county regulatory bodies in various states on the
subject of fair rate of return on behalf of cable television companies as well as before an arbitration
panel in Ohio and a State District Court in Texas. I have testified before the Public Works Committee
of the Nebraska State Senate in relation to Legislative Bill 73 I which proposed pennitting Public Power
Districts and Municipalities to enter the Cable Television field.
PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS,
PUBLICATIONS AND GUEST SPEAKER APPEARANCES
I am a Member and Director of the Society of Utility and Regulatory Financial Analysts
(SURFA), formerly known as the National Society of Rate of Return Analysts. I am a Certified Rate
ofRetum Analyst (CRRA). I am on the Advisory Council of New Mexico State University's Center
for Public Utilities which is endorsed by the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners
(NARUC). I am also a member of the Executive Advisory Council of the Rutgers University School

of Business at Camden. AUS Consultants - Utility Services is an associate member of the American
Gas Association (AGA) and I am a member of AGA's Rate and Strategic Issues Committee. I am also
an associate member of the National Association of Water Companies and a member of its Finance

Appendix A
Page 5 of7

Committee, and also an associate member of the Energy Association of Pennsylvania. AUS Consultants
- Utility Services is an associate member of the New Jersey Utilities Association.
I often attend SURF A meetings during which considerable information on the subject of rate of
return is exchanged. I have also attended corporate bond rating seminars held by Standard & Poor's
Corporation.

I continuously review financial publications of institutions such as Standard & Poor's,

Moody's Investors' Service, Value Line Investment Survey, and periodicals of various agencies of the
U.S. Government.
I co-authored an article with A. Gerald Harris entitled "Does Diversification Increase the Cost
of Equity Capital?" which was published in the July IS, 1991 issue of Public Utilities Fortnightly. Also,
an article which I co-authored with Pauline M. Ahem entitled "Comparable Earnings: New Life for an
Old Precept" was published in the American Gas Association's Financial Quarterly Review, Summer
1994. I also authored an article entitled "Why Performance-Based Incentives Are Essential" which was
published in TIlE CITY GATE, Fall 1995, a magazine published by the Pennsylvania Gas Association.
I have appeared as a guest speaker before an annual convention of the Mid-American Cable
Television Association in Kansas City, Missouri and as a guest panelist on the small water companies'
operation seminar of the National Association of Water Companies' 77th Annual Convention in
Hollywood,

Florida.

I addressed the Second Annual Seminar on Regulation of Water Utilities

sponsored by N.A.R.U.C., at the University of South Florida's St. Petersburg campus. I have spoken
on fair rate of return to the Third and Fourth Annual Utilities Conferences, as well as the special
conference on the cost of capital in El Paso, Texas sponsored by New Mexico State University.

In

1983 I also made a presentation on the Cost of Capital in Atlantic City, New Jersey, at a seminar cosponsored by Temple University. I have also addressed the Public Utility Law Section of the American

Appendix A
Page 6 o1

Bar Association's Third Institute on Fundamentals of Rate making which was held in Washington, D.C.
and I addressed a Conference on Cable Television sponsored by The University of Texas School of Law
at Austin, Texas.

Also, I addressed a meeting of the New England Water Works Association at

Boxborough, Massachusetts, on the subject of Enterprise Financing. In addition, I was a speaker and
mock witness in three different Utility Workshops for Attorneys sponsored by the Financial Accounting
Institute held in Boston and Washington, D.C. I also was on a panel at the 23rd Financial Forum
sponsored by the National Society of Rate of Return Analysts.

The topic was Rate of Return

Determination in the Diversified and/or Partially Deregulated Environment.

I addressed the 83rd

Annual Meeting of the Pennsylvania Gas Association in Hershey, PA. My topic was the Cost of Capital
Implications of Demand Side Management.

In June 1993, I lectured on the cost of capital at the

American Gas Association's Gas Rate Fundamentals Course. In October 1993, I was a guest speaker
at the University of Wisconsin's Center for Public Utilities -- my topic was "Diversification and
Corporate Restructuring in the Electric Utility Industry - Trends and Cost of Capital Implications." In
October 1994, I was a guest speaker on a panel at the Fourteenth Annual Electric & Natural Gas
Conference in Atlanta, Ga., sponsored by the Bonbright Utilities Center of the University of Georgia
and the Georgia Public Service Commission.

The panel topic was "Responses to Competition and

Incentive Rates." In October 1994, I was a guest speaker on a panel at a conference and workshop
called "Navigating the Shoals of Cable Rate Regulation" sponsored by EXNET in Washington, D.C.
The panel topic was "Rate of Return."

Also, in March 1995, I was a guest speaker on a panel at a

conference entitled, "Current Issues Challenging the Regulatory Process" sponsored by New Mexico
State University - Center for Public Utilities. My panel topic concerned the electric industry and was
titled, "Impact of a Competitive Structure Qn the Financial Markets".

In May 1995, I was a guest

Appendix A
Page 7 of7

speaker at the 87th Annual Meeting of the Pennsylvania Gas Association in Hershey, PA. My topic was
"The Pennsylvania Economy and Utility Regulation: Impact on Industry, Consumers and Investors."
In May 1996, I was on a panel at the 28th Financial Forum of the Society of Utility and Regulatory
Financial Analysts. The panel's topic was "Revisiting the Risk Premium Approach" and was held in
Richmond, Virginia. Since May 1996, I have participated as an instructor in 2-3 seminars per year on
the "Basics of Regulation" (and the ratemaking process in a changing environment) and also in a
program called "A Step Beyond the Basics", all sponsored by New Mexico State University's Center
for Public Utilities and NARUC. In March 2002, I was a guest speaker before the Rate and Strategic
Issues Committee of the American Gas Association in St. Petersburg, Florida. My topic was Rate of
Return Strategies. InDecember 2002, I was a guest speaker at a seminar entitled, "Service Innovations
and Revenue Enhancements for the Energy Distribution Business" sponsored by the American Gas
Association in Washington, DC. My topic was "The Impact of Volatile Energy Markets on Rate of
Return Strategies". InFebruary 2003, I spoke at the Rutgers University-Camden, NJ M.B.A. Speaker
Series. I addressed M.B.A

students and interested faculty on the role of the expert witness in the

public utility ratemaking process.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-1

Summary of Cost of Capital and Fair Rate of Return

Going Forward Based Upon August 2003


Type of Capital

Ratios (1)

Total Debt

50.52 %

Total Equity

49.48
Total

Cost Rate

Weighted Cost
Rate

6.03 % (2)

3.05 %

12.95 (3)

6.41

9.46 %

100.00 %

Applicable to the Year 2002

Type of Capital

Ratios (1)

Total Debt

49.98 %

Total Equity

50.12
Total

Cost Rate

Weighted Cost
Rate

6.46 % (2)

3.23 %

13.525 (3)

100.10 %

6.78
10.01 %

Applicable to the Year 2001

Type of Capital
Total Debt

48.34 %

Total Equity

51.66
Total

Notes:

Ratios (1)

100.00 %

Cost Rate

Weighted Cost
Rate

7.52 % (2)

3.64 %

15.05 (3)

7.77
11.41 %

(1)

Hypothetical capital structure ratios based upon the average capital


structure ratios of the Proxy Group of Five Oil Pipeline Companies and the
Proxy Group of Three Gas Pipeline Companies as explained by Mr.
Hanley in his accompanying direct testimony .

(2)

From page 1 of Exhibit FJH-4.

(3)

Based upon informed judgment from the entire study, the principal results of which
are summarized in Exhibit FJH-2.

Docket No. P-03-4

Exhibit FJH-2
Bnl'!' Sum!TH!ryqf eommon Equity Cost Rate

Une

Princip!!t Melt10ds

PIClll)'Group
ofF"M1 Oil
Pipehoe
Comp'niti
Going F~1d

1.

Discounted

,.

Risk Plwrnium Model al

Cr..h Flow Model (1)

Asset Plicing Model (3)

3.

Ca~1

Comparable

5.

CcrnmDI'I EQLJi!y C<t Rms

6.

Recommendation ApplICable In AUijust 2003 (5)

earning=;

Model (4)

DiscouI"lt8dCah Fbw Model (1)

Based Upon August 2003

14.4 ..

18.1 ..

11.5

12.0

11.7

12.4

12.8

12.5

12.6 'lIo

13.3 'lIo

1295

Applic8ble
9.

Pro:qoGloup
~Tt1tMGas
Pipeline
Comp!!nies (6)

'lIo ,

to tI1II YMr 2002

1SD ...

13.7 '"

10.

Risk Premium Model (2)

12'

13.6

11.

C8pt!111ASMI PricIng Model (3)

12.3

132

12.

Comp!lIIb1e Eamings Model (4)

13.5

133

13.

CommoI'I Equity Cost Rms

13.4 'WI

13.5'"

14.

R~AppkabNotothe
Yur
2002 before considelllllOn ~ the _rty period
risk prwnium 01' 0.75"4 (5)

13.15 ..

15.

Earty Period Ri511:Prnum

0.375

16.

Recomrnenddon

17.

Disc:ourtllcl Cah FJow McdeI (1)

16.4 ..

(7)

A;.pIic:abM to the Y.... 2002 (8)

13.525"

18.

Rist Premium Model (2)

12..

19.

capttal AsMtPrtclng MocIeI (3)

132

20.

Comparable

21.

Common EcpCy Co:Ia R.-

22.

Rec:om~
AppIk:abIe to 1he Y_I
2001 before ~
rlthe .. rty period
risk prwnlum 010.75" (5)

23.

Early

Eemings

Model (oC)

PtIriocI R** Prnum

15.3 ..

..

13.7

11.8

13.6 ..

(7)

14.6 ..

14.30 'If,

---.21i
15.05"

Nc:1tftI.

(1) From E.d1ibil' FAi-5.


(2) From pege 1 rIEmIbt FJH..9.
(3) From page 1 01 Exhibit F..H-10.
(4) From~1
clExhIbIl:FJH-11.
(5) Ba!Ied upon inbmecl judgment III'Id upon the indQtI common equity cost nates going forward
bnId upon Au;ust 2003 and appiic:a~ to the yar3 2002 ancI2oo1, res~,1a"
the Proxy
GrCPlJp 01 Five Oil PIpel1ne eomp.r_ III'Id the P'OX'W'~
0Il'h1 .. Gas PlpeIlne Compt,nIes es
expIeined in Mr. HIInley's 8CICCIIIIpInying dired and answering testimony.
(6) T~ PIw;y Group r:l1lu"ee Ges PipelIne Compel__
compri~
of lou' ges pipeline
oompBnies in the analysis applicab6e to 2001 and 2002 lIS expt;Ilned in Mr. Hl!.nie'(s dirlld

_.

pege 147 01 Order No. 151. Docket No. P-97-4.


No. 6 plus line No.7, which is one-half 01 the 0.75 earty period. risk premium, since Order
151 DIed ttwt rtw .arty period risk premium was appkeble aNy ulllillhe midcDe 01 2002.
(9) Une No. 14 plll5l1ne No. 16.
(7) From
(8) Une
No.

Docket
No. P-03-4
Exhibit
FJH-3
Page 1 of 11

Summary of Capital Structure Ratios Based upon Total Capital


for the Years 2000 through 2002
2002
Going
Forward
Based Upon
August 2003

2001

2000

Applicable to
the Year 2002

Applicable to
the Year 2002

Proxy Group of Five Oil Pipeline Companies


Average Capital Structure Ratios (1)
Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
TOlal Debt
Minority Interest
Preterred Stock
Common Equity
Total Equity
Talai Capttal

48.29 %
6.38
54.67

57.40 %
0.10
57.50
0.23
0.87
41.40
42.50
100.00 %

53.60 %
0.00
53.60

0.39

0.56
1.67
44.17
46.40

1.22
43.72
45.33
100.00 %

Proxy Group of Gas Oil Pipeline Companies

100.00 %

(2)

Arithmetic Average Capital Structure Ratios of the Operating Subsidiaries


of the Gas Pipeline Holding Companies Whose Bonds are Rated (3)
Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
Total Debt

43.53 %
0.00
43.53

Minority Interest

0.67

Preferred Stock

5.94

Common Equity
Total Equity
Totai Capital

49.86
56.47
100.00 %

42.92 %
2.17
4509

41.21

0.00
0.63
54.08
54.91

0.00
0.00
56.92
56.92

100.00 %

1.87
43.08

10000
~=~~~

Average 01 the Average Capital Structure Ratios 01 the Proxy Group 01 Five
Oil Pipeline Companies and the Average Capital Structure Ratios 01 the
Operating Subsidiaries 01 the Gas Pipelina Holding Companies Whose
Bonds are Rated for Each of the Gas Pipeline Holding Companies (4)
Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
Total Debt

50.47 %
0.05
50.52

45.60 %
4.28
49.88

47.40 %
0.94
48.34

Minority Intarest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Equity

0.45
3.40
45.63
49.48

0.20
1.02
48.90
50.12

0.28
0.83
50.55
51.66

Total Capital

Noles:

100.00 %

100.00 %

100.00 %

(1) From page 3 01 this Exhibit.


(2) The proxy group 01 gas pipeline companies was
comprised of four gas pipeline companies in the
analysis applicable to 2001 and 2002. and three
companies for the going forward period as eXplained
in Mr. Hanley's direct testimony.
(3) From page 4 01 this Exhibit.
(4) Consistent with Order No. 151 in Docket P-97-4 as
explained in Mr. Hanley's direct testimony.

Docket No. P"{)3-4


Exhibit FJH-3
Page 2 of 11

Summary of Capital Structure Ratios Based upon Total Capital


for the Years 2000 through 2002
2002
Going
Forward
Based Upon
August 2003

2001

2000

Applicable to
the Year 2002

Applicable to
the Year 2002

Proxy Group of Gas Pipeline Holding Companies

(1)

Average Capital Structure Ratios of the Holding Companies Comprising the


Proxy Group ofThree Gas Pipeline Companies (1) (2)

Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
Total Debt

61.24 %
0.00
61.24

54.06 %
4.76
58.82

51.45 %
6.93
58.38

Minority Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Equity

5.22
5.94
27.60
38.76

7.28
2.70
31.20
41.18

8.91
1.34
31.37
41.62

Total Capital

Notes:

100.00 %

100.00 %

100.00 %

(1) The proxy group of gas pipeline companies was


comprised of four gas pipeline companies in the
analysis applicable to 2001 and 2002, and three
companies for the going forward period as explained
in Mr. Hanley's direct testimony.
(2) From page 5 of this Exhibit.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-3
Page 3 of 11

Prort GI'O!.!P of Five Oil pjpe!;M Companies


Capibl Structure R8tiol Ba$eCI upon 1ctal Capibl for thr8
for the Years 2000 thrO!JQh2002

Buckey. Pilrtners l.P.


Long-Term Debt
Short-Twm Debt

52."

TobIlDebi

52."

Minortty Inter_
Preferred

Stock

Common

Equity

~
~
....JS2.S. %

TalIIl C.pbl
Enbridp. Energy PBrtfler1;, L.P.
long- T IfTn Debt
ShortT~ Debt

59.67

Minority
Common

Total C&p/lIIl

Total Debt
Interest

Prefenecl

Stock

Common

Equity

Total Capital
Kinder Morgan

Teal Debt

54."

D.ll9
D.DD

0.21
D.oo

'"

'" ~

52.53

_Stock
Total EqlJit)'

TataI capibll

....JS2.S.

1.06

'"

~
~
~

.....
.....

'"

'" -W- '"


1.43
O.DD
51.89

0.00
52.51
53."

~
~

CnmonE_

'"

0.29
D.DD

'"
-46.41

50.79

'"

50.79

48.04'

D.59
O.DD

Minority' .....

..l.Q2;.2.

63."

----2:!!L

PIInn.rs,

~
%

54."
'" ----!!.:..QQ...
'" ~

~
~
~

'"

0.24
D.DD
010.04

63."

52.53

long- Term Debt


Debt

53.32

'"

~,.

L.P.

Lorv- Twm DetC


Short- T wm Debt

---l!.:!!L

T.... Dobt

se De

58.De

Minority IntemI
_Slock
Common Equfty
Teal EquIy

A~
tot 1M Pro7:y Group at
F"M! Oil ComFl!nies
long-Twm Debt
Short T.-m o.bt

IntenlSl

62.7'0

68.30

-..2:QQ...
66.30

0.34

4.36

6.07

8.36

100.00

..

~.40

'"

~"'~

..

48.29 '"

57.50

54.67

0.23
0.87

0.39
1.22

~"'~'"

Source d InfonniItion;

0.00

~
~

TlJIbIICapitll

042.00

--1Q1Q...

0.00

---2.JQ...

T .... Dobl
Pre1erR<l Stock
Common Equity
Total Eqully

""

~~~
~~~

TobIl c.p/tlil

Minority

100.00

"'"

59.72

59.72

Partl"lG~ L P.

ShortTerm

TEPPCQ

'" ~

----lli!:l..

....JS2.S.
EnelVt

0.21
D.oo

~
~

Tetal Equity

047.504

'"

0.049
D.DD

----&l!...

100.00

Kaneb Pip! Une PIIrtners, l.P.


long- Twm Debt
Short-Term
Debt

4<.53

58.76

~
~

Equity

lobll Equity

Minority

'" ~

D.D2
D.DD

Interest

Pr1ll8llWld Stock

51.15

".85
~
....JS2.S. 'If, ....l2l1S..

60.17

Tatal Debt

4<.53

0.415
D.oo
.. 010

D."
D.DD

TlJtIIf Equity

51.15

'" --!!J!l.. '" ~

~
~

53.60 ""

-9.:QQ...
53.eo
0.56
1.57
44.11
46.040

100.00'"

St.nclard& PDOI's Compustal Seme.s,


Inc., PC PI... R_art:h
IRSight DatI Base

Capital Structure Ratios Based upon Total Capital for the


Operating Gas Pipeline SUbsidiaries of the
Proxy Group of Three Gas Pipeline Companies fQr the Years 2000 through 2002

2002 !21
Arithmetic Average Capital Structure Ratios for the
Operating Subsidiaries of the Three Gas Pipeline
Holding Companies Whose Bonds Bre Rated (1)
Long- T arm Debt
Short-Term Debt
Total Debt
Minority Interest
Preferred Stock
Common EqUity

Tolol Equity
Totel Capital

Notes:

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

Supporting
Comprised
Comprised
Comprised

2000 !41

2001 !31

43.53 %
0.00
43.53

42.92 %
2.17
45.09

41.21 %
1.87
43.08

0.87
5.94
49.86
56.47

0.00
0.83
54.08
54.91

0.00
0.00
56.92
56.92

100.00 %

100.00 %

100.00 %

Informatton on pages 6, 7, 8 Bnd 9 of this Exhibit.


of Enterprise Products, L.E" GulfTerre Energy Partners. L.E. (formerly EI Paso Energy Partners, L.E.) end Kinder Morgen Inc.
of EI Paso Energy Corp., GulfTerre Energy Pertners, L.P. (formerly EI Paso Energy Partners, L.P.), Kinder Morgan Inc. and The Williams Cos., Inc.
of EI Paso Energy Corp., Enron Corporation. Kinder Morgan Inc. and The Williams Cos., Inc.

o
o

m""

""Dx!

,!!!

=. z

-CD ;::;.'
C" 0
.... "T!"tJ

0'-6

-:I:w

::w'!'

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-3

Page 5 of 11

GrouP

Prmy

II' I"lne G!!

CIIpbl

6UIIclln

b!he

Aa!!H!Ib!ollig

B...clupoo

....

"'"
..... ..... ....."'"

EIP!!I9Cptw+

OMIt
DeIIl:

u..v-Twm
Shoo-TIfTII

....., ......
....

---!J'L

'1.::!6

10.17

'.00

"...

COm __

.........

lcalCllpbl

Cuui!iWW

...... -""'-eom-_
--_.
...... -Long- 1enn
~Tmo.bl

0dII

-----'It.

T_EquI:y'

-----"'-

Prod!!C!ll Ptaooe

E.ntIrp!+!

Lant-T_

---'""-

TcalOetll:

loDl

fIwpy
o.tJl

GlIII'Terq

lDl1g-T"""
~TmOltlll

Partl>tft

l P.

100DO ..

""
-""-

0ItIlI

,...

"'",..

--""'-

--""'-

10000

..

""""

_..-

...J!!U2. ..
".1& ..

I.CIngoT..mDltll:

--""-

ShDrt-TIfTII 0ItIlI

...... ....

.".

_--..........-"&&

Lorog-T_DItII:

et..:t.

-'J!L

'M

-""'--1LIL

'" tr-vf

'.70
.J!.'O--'1.1L

JilL

UH

".

....!1JO..

...!.!!U!2.. ..

100.00 ..

....,. .....,..

CoIrIpr.-;j'at~

cc...1nC-

.... ~

01 El PaD
CGrpprd<rI.1<.rI<Ieo

&

l,.P . GlIIrT.~
EI PMD E'*V)'
R .
CoIp., Gun ......

IiADJgIMl

EFIIIfV'1
~

warv-n

El Pno E.n.gy
R .

nd

llw

E'*VJ Co;Irp . En"""

uc.v-n

Ino:

.nd n.WlI_m.

PDDr'. Compusllll &.w::e:lI,


0.. 811.

PC PnIlI R_rd'llMlghl

..-.cI.-"'ag

PrcducfI;,

LP.), ~

PliI1rJenl,
"Io'M ......
CQm~

dRod.

PIi",*", L.P. ~

PIIrtr'JM, LP.)..-.cI ~
(31 e:e-n~
of EI Puo
EJwr;y PIi",*", L.P.

StlnllIIld

(.)

ClCIIIl~

.. e;pM~"

alll'lfor1Nllal:

..

61.'"

.....

-""-

..

grwp 01 line ga; pIpMN CDIlIpIln~


01 flIur 0- ~
DDITIPan ....
-.ppIlCIlbie 11;1 ..
~ra 2001 ...:1 ~

The ~
_.~

IC)

'!L(3)

--tll..

..l!!l2l.. ..

_.

--"-"--'UL
~

....1S!2J!2..'!L

..,.""

~
--"-"-

,.CO

16.1S

.'" .....

,...

11)

""
,...

~
-""10000 ..

.,,,
".C
-""-'-"-

."

, """"

155.1"

-'-"-

..J2ll!2..

61.24

"""'""","'''''

..

. ,..

--=- ..

6tIort-T_tMtII

--"-"36. "
~

..

"
w

-"-"~

TCIlIII EquIr

, """"

,W

-'-"-

"
U,

Equly

..

(D.2!)

aM

71.n

TatllOebI

"

--""'-".1L

epmp.n ..

..

C."

,.W
"'"

TCIbII EquIy

Sou~

-""10000

""

'.00
--'UL

,.W

..

""
-"-"....E.!L
~

""
"

II"IllIral

..--

~"...

a ..
,.CO

m,

Equl:y'

_.. ....

CofnIl'Ul

.2..7

---"&

-->LlL

'"
~

1DAl0eDt

--"-!L

,.W

'00

1761

Mprg!n
""
lDng-T ...... 0ebI

..........

....l1!ll!2- ..

''''

!Sr'9"

....ngrty
COm
__

-----"'-

13.26

.", '21'
--""'-

TCIlIIlcapbl

ShDn-l"""

--"-"--

-'-"'-

Equty

Tatli

--'"

100.Q:J ..

TlIIIIlDIII:Il

Co,IIft~,

--'"

.2.7

--"JL

t:apI;Il

,,,,
--ilL

U.

Equty

C"

....
Ilty InIM'nI

T..

C."

o.bt

Sh!;wI.-T_OebI

--!!!!...

--"'-

-----"'-

TGllIlcaIlbI

'00

--""'-A.ll-

......... .",...
. .

-----'It.

T_OItbl

10:,.61

'.00

--"-"--"-"10000 ..

TgII,l Equly

.".

..... -=-

---'-"nto:,

TDtIII DitDI

[,nrpn

fl'tt.ft41

e:e-npnl!lll

TGllII capbl!Of

111~

're!1llllX!

1nC:,

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-3
Page 6 of 11

Cilpital Structu ... Ratios.

Based upon T oIaI c.pilallof

the

Operuling Ga Pipeline Subsidiaries of the


Prary Group 01 Three Gas PuRiM
ComPanies
lor 1M Y!!!j!11i20QQ Ihrpugh

2Oll2

2002

2001

EI Paso Corp.
Long-.Tenn DeOI
snort- T.-m 0sf:JI
Minority

37.63 ""
<21

Inler.t

Prelened Slodl
ComlT'lOn

ShortT.-m

Debt
DebI

NA

0.00

0.00
.8.03

NA

Equity

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

46.37

Gall Transmission
Long- T.", OcIbf
ShortTerm Deb!

FIoIida

NA
NA

092'

NA

~"

33.99 "-

'"

0.00

17.DO

0.00

0.00

37::2
1192

0.00

53.83

~"

50."

~'Ib

100.00

504.73

'"

50.71 ..

51.55 '"
000

Minority Interest

0.00

2."

0.00

000

Prelened Stock
Common Equity
lOlal C.pl!al

0.00

Nlltural

~'"

0.00
46.30

~%

~'lI.

G-. Com!J!"!
44.C16

ShortTerm Deb!
Minolily lnt.resi
Prafenad Siock
Comroon Equity
letat Capllal

..

43.40
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00

~
~

T arm DetII
Shof1- Term DebI

........

.....
0.00

-45.27

Long. T erm 0abI

Long-

..

0.00

TotalC8p1b11

36.13
0.00

".00

0.00
0.00

..

'Of Iha 0peIIII~ GaB PIpeline


Sub5idia .... d EI PalO I!ne'JlY Corp.
long-Term Debt
Shar1-Tarm Debl

13.&7

61.67

...

~'lI.

B2.21l "
8.37

"""'"""

o.n

Not_:

(1)

.....

AoricbI Ga. T~'.<:apital


Paso Corp. ta only.

since EI

5.16
0.00

0.00
0.00

T*I Capital

..... ..

stNctunr raIica .... giwan onIy6.3"'-wnt

so-. intereslln

Source oIlnll;lfllWtion:

11.35
~'110

..... "

42.75 "

S1od<

0.00
0.00

..

At1tIIa(18

...--

'lI.

0.00
0.00

704.83 '"
11.2<1

0.00
0.00

~
~

..

0.00
0.00

53.G3 ..

"""..,."
S1od<
Common Equity

"""..,."

'"

(11
0.00

SouIhllrn

...

0.00
0.00

.....

0.00

Common Equity
1alIIl Capital

NA"
NA

~'"

~%

EI Paso Natu ... 1 GIilI Co.


Lono- T erm Debt
Shan- T ann Oebl
Mioority!~
P,eferr.:l Stodl

~"

30.72 '"

0.00

----1!R.

T 01:81Cap/lal

NA

~"

26.63 '"

Minority Interes!
P,lIflltTed Slock
Common

NA"
NA

0.00

~""

Tolal Capital

'"

0.00

58.16

Equity

Long- Term

04'.97

0.00

0.00

~'"

52.31 'It
5.71
0.00
0.00

.,...

~'"

in 1Ile-,-ra 2001 IIIld 20021111d 12.5'11oYMighl in 1Ile,... 2000

FIoridII GM Tranuniuion.

S1andard & Poor's CompusUd SerrioeG,Inc., PC Plus RMNn::h Qighl [lII1a Base
Compeny OIed FERC Forms :2

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-3
Page 7 of 11

Ratloo; Based upon T obi Capital


G85 PipelIfIII SubsdiBries of the

C8pil,a1 Structure
OperatIng

Prmy Group 01 Three Gal Pipe!1l1! ComD!ll"lies tor the Y"'i'B

tor the

2000 thlPOOh 200?


2001

2002

Enlerprise Products Partnen;, LP.


long-Term Debt
Short- T enn 0ebI:
Minority InlelllSl

1.96

Pr ....emMI SIOC'k

0.00

Common Equiry
ToIlIl ClIpiial

Minority Int"""

Pmfmea S'odr

11.81

15.42

0""

filed

FERC Forms 2

Service5,

Inc., PC PIllS R_rch

""

..

"'54
"
0.00
(028)
0.00
36.7<1

~~

Standard & Poor'5 Cornpu5tal

eomp.!'I)'

69.35

82.09 "
0.00
0.00
10.62
27.09

~"
Soun::e oIlnlOlTTlllllon:

".95

~'"

66.TO "
0.00
0.07

Equity

0."

29.94
0.00
0.71

0""

~'"

loCal Qlpltal

'Jl,

0""

34.15

GulfTerra Energy PartneR, l.P


Long- Term Debt
Shor1lerm
Debt

Common

42.47

63.89 '"
0.00

2000

~"
Insight

Data

BIlse

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-3
Page 8 of 11

Gas Pipeline Sub5iclIaries 01 the

()pe(Zing
Pro!y Group

D! Three Gas Pipeline

Comrf!iM

for lhe Val'S

2000 through

2002

'000

"""

Enran Corp.

Florida Gn Tl8nsmiuion
Long. Term DMJI
ShclltTerm DetIt

(1)
50.71 ~

,.99

_1nI.Preferred

Slock

Common

Equity

0.00
0.00

".3D
~.,.

TataI CopltaI
NoIthem

tQ!:ul"8l Gas

Short-Term

Debl

MinClrily Inleresl
Pnlfemtd Stocll:
Common Equity
TaIIIl CepMI
Trancwesl:llm

Pipeline Co.

Long.T enn Debl


Short T enn DetIt
MiIlOnty Inler_
PrelentICI Slcldl
Common

Eqully

TDhJI Capital
....~

for the OpenIIing Ga. Pipeline


d EnrDfl Corp.
Long. T Ilml Debt
Short T arm Debt
Minority Inlllf85l
Prelen.t Stock
Common Equity
Tolal Capital

Sub5idiarie5

"

0.00
0.00
0.00
67.02

......
..
.....
......
......
..

.....
......
...
..

~
~

NA

_.......

Kinder M>rg;m,

....

.....
......

.....
.........
... ..

Co.

lorIg- T erm Debl

~'ll.

,8.12 .,.
0.00
0.00
0.00

~"

.....
......
...

29.74

oso
0.00
0.00
69.76

..

~.,.

Inc.

Kinder Morgan Inlarslatll Gu. Traramis6ion


LOfIQ- TIIml

CcJmmon E quIty
Talal C81p1la1

~.,.

~'-'"

....verage lor the ~


Go Pipeline
Subsidiary cI Kinder MorplIn Inc.
Loog- Term o.bl
Short Term DIIbt
MooriI)I

0.00 "0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00

"'(11-

""".....

Common Eqully
ToCltI Capiral

Sourt:e

w"

lllructu~

oIlr1ormalion:

l1Ilio& _1I1wn

only

18.8"" ~

Cornpllny riled FERc Fonr& '2

~.,.

0.00 .,.
0.00
O.DO
0.00
100.00

O.DO "
0.00
0.00
0.00

---!.Q2J!!L
~.,.

~"

Not_: (1) FlorIda Gn TranamiAion'.


TrwsmlMiorl.

D.DO 'It.
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00

0.00 'lb
0.00
0.00
0.00
'00.00

0.00 '-'"
0.00
0.00
0.00

Debl

ShortT.-m Deb!
Minority Intlllest

since EnrtlII

Cotp. t-. only.

~"

50%

InWfIIIl: In Florida Q-.

Docket No. P~3-4


Exhibit FJH-3
Page 9 of 11

StructunI Raid Besed upon Total Capital b !he


Operating GIIS Pipeline SulUflllJiea d the
of Three Gas PIpeline Corncanip fq 1be Ycars 2000 thrnugh?OW

Capital

f...rog Grnup

2001
The WiIlielTl5

Companies

Inc.

Long. Term Delli

67.56 %
0.00
0.00

ShortTerm Deb!
M~lnl81esl.

Prllf6rrlMl Stock

0.00

Common Equily
TlJlllf Capftaf

38" ..

-'Total

EM

CPpitgt

Long- T enn

o.bt

Shott T 8fI11

"'1..58

0.00
0.00
0.00
tJ7.n
~%

S1od1

Common

32.'"

Long-Term Oebt
ShCIf1Term DIibI
Prefvred

2000

67.90

Total C8pit111

,.,

""'.13 'lIo

0.00

0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

~'"
35.64

'lIo

0.00
0.00
0.00

65.61

~%

Gas Pipe Ul1e Corp.


Long-Term Debt
ShortTerm Dsbl

~%

34.:39 '"
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

Preferred S10ck
Common Equity

..

50"

0.00

Mmorilylnter.

0.00

~'lIo

32.10

SU8 '"
0.00
0.00

~'lIo

~'lIo

TraMCOnlineo\al

Minority Interwl
Prvl"QlTIMl Stock
Comrnoo

37 ..,0 ..
0.00

38.S3 %
0.00
0.00
0.00
81.07

Equity

0.00
62.30

--;0000",

TotaJ Cllpita,

37.J5 "
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00

~"

~"

Win181'T1SGas Pipeli!l!5: Central, lnc


Long-Term

Otbl

Preferred

Slack

Cornmon Equity
Towl Clipllal

040.15 'lIo
0.00
0.00
0.00

.....

61.91

.......l22!2..'"

~%

~%

A'I8f'aglII to(" Ihe 0plnUng Gas PIpeline


Sub5idia1ie5 of T!Mo W~u.ms Comp!nn

--

3US 'lIo
0.00
0.00
0.00

31.19 %
0.73
0.00
0.00
67.~

Short-Term Deb!
MiIlO:;ll'#ty lnl&rwl

Inc:.

T.-m DlltJl
Short- T lIIfIl'l DebI
Minority Ir1tItr.-i

".86 ..

35..28 ..
0.18
0.00

Long-

..... ..

0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00

Common Equity
TotlIIc.pbl

NA c Nell Appjic:atM ... Kern Rier Ges Tr.tTIInIis5ian ~

Source oIlrdonnlllion:

was I'ICII .1Ubi5Idi8ry

fDI. FERC FClIt1W2

~
~

..

aI The WililIIN C05., Inc. in 2002.

.(5.13

0.00
0.00
0.00
SU7

~"

...

Docket

No, P-D3-4

Exhibit FJH-3
Page 10 of 11

UTILITIESI:IJ I
PERSPECTIVES

~y

/mnrintrect tram

npge

KttLnNMS

1/

Revised U61ity Group Financial Targets*


FFO 18 total debt
BusiMSl pDlitiDa
I

:112,":~

. ~ 315""

: 21~i

n....,

'

21D

:lEi]

~-- <70

~:8..'1niB'i;;'~~"

12.5
.1'.' .W.."'
16.0 itJl~O;~.5:'
20.0 -::=2D1l- .. ~4.D.

"BB'

(10.5

14D

~66q,~ r'~".'

.1:

30.
33D
","'47ll 39D~' 39D
.~c513il ~t:..47D';~' 47D
;;D

24.5

54.5
78.0

49.5

:~'E'

"'":I33D;:

6
7
8

.~~.
' '"
';;:~':."
nt.}.~
"':

10

FFO internt cov.,.ge

a.. ill_._iti

31.0
E.5
"5

60.5

2.6

2.5

..,

'.5
'.8
5.7
7.'
8.'
'.5
113

6
7

10

'.8

'5
5.'
5.'
7. ,
8.6

'.0

.,.,

51
6.5

'.7

PrNx interest CO.... l1Il1e


B.i_ ~itiOII

~~~AA.

5
8
7
8

2.'
2.'

,..
.,

.. ,

.,
..,

TIIIIII debt to tatIIl c-tlibll


Bai_lICIIiIioI

55D

51.
475

5
6
7

10

175
205
.......
31.0 ,.12.D~. 22D

5
[.204:5"..:,
24.5
. -42.S -~. :.27.5 ....
275

'.5

..,

..

~l~:ii.i32D
39D
!.I39.D

dJ.

80.5
56.5

53D

'.5
12.0

15'
16.0

17D

New York (1)212-.438-7664


lhdllies

Canili.
Thomas Comell

TorlJ'ltD 111416-2D26(lJ1

.... iIlMeriC.
Jane Eddy

NM Yort 111ZI7-438-79$

E.rtIpe/Midille E.u1IAtra

I.'1..

2.7

2.'
21
2.
2.'

'D

'.1
3J

" ,..

'3
53

dJB

U.ned States
Join Bilardello.
U.S. Investor-Qwned

18.5

22D
28D

....

<'2.'5

36

...

Aidan O'MlIhonv

London 1441171-826-1518

Asi.",.citic
Paul Coughlin
Ria She!tlerd
Dill Fukutomi

HOrJ;lI(Of'IiII852IZ533-300Z

Melbou~ (6113-$31-2040
Tokyo 181133593-87H1

T elecommuniclltions
Gellle,el

eo_bid.

NM Yort (11212-0138-7863

Richard Siderman
Ullned Stiles

<13

1.1

1.,

'B
21
2.'
2.

'.5

'D

2D

,. ,.
,.,
IJ;

,.7

2.5

Richard Sidennan

New Yort III Z12-o1J8.7B63

Celled.

Thomas Camell

Toronto lH 416-Z02-61X11

la1i. AIIIeriu
lIlul1l Felnland ICB1l

NewYort 111212-0138-7893

5D

'

2.'
2.

5.5
6.8

11.1

10

:m1':5I,j5~'
,..,20:.s~

27D ~.n

I.,
,,3 '.'
,., ,.,

,,, ..

.~I'~
.%i~t'Af:~

UtililiesJProject FinllRcennfrBstruc:turll
Gelier.1eo.tam
Cun15 Moulton
New Yort. 111212-438-2064
JomBilardetio
New York 111217-438-7664
Cheryl RidJer
New Vort {IJ 212"'3&2tIM
WilliamOlew
New YCRIlI 217-438-7981

>675

""5

61D
57D
55D

43D

49.5

415

395
375
lSD
JOD

47D
48D
45D
43D
39D

535
625
515
475

24D

33.0

405

bropelMiddl.

~Afric.I
lDn:lon t441171-826-:fi42

Juan Jose Garcis

....

Asie/Pacifte
Dtrean Wllrwick-Q1ll~lI'l

67D
54D

MlllboumeI6113-9iJl2D76
Tok',o 181) 3-3593-87''-

DIJlh*lIIomi

625
I.,.

,"5

56D
54D
48D

.....01.u.l!l!B. FJO--fIniI frtnI apemkIIl.

Visit us at
www.slandardandpoors.com/nrtings
for more U.s, utility .nodit infonn.'i.n.
or at www.nltingsdirect.comto
subs.ribeto

Stand.rd

& Poor's

on-line I1IItingservice.
For fast answers

to utility questions.

plellse e-mail us at
utility_helpdesk@slandardandpoolS-com

Docket No. P-03-4

Exhibit FJH-3
Page 11 of 11
"."

FormuL..

"",

STANDARD & POORS CORPORATE RATINGS CRfTERIA

for by ratioa

Pretax interest coverage

Pretax

from continuing operation. + interest elq)lJnM


Gross nlerut

inCOIT'l8

PrelaX bed charge coverage incIucing rents _ PretaX' inoome from continuing operation" + r,118at
Gross "'.rest + gross rents
Pretax funds now + intarut
Gross interest

Pretax funcb ftow intlilrest coverage.

Funds from operations as a

of total debt.

upltl'\M +

glOSll'llf'lti

liIxpllN"lM

Funds from operations

X 100

Tolal debt

Free operating cash

now &1 a % of total debt.

Pretax return on permanent capital

Free operating cash


Tola! debt

now

100

Pretax income from continuing operations + interest exp81lM


Sum of (1) a""'age of beginning 01 yaar and and olyaar currant
maturi., long-term debt, non-eurmnt deferred taxes, and equity and
(2)a,a",go short-larm borrowings during yaal lIS disclosad in

x 100

Ioolnol8o

Operating income as a % of sales.

Operating income
Sale

Long-tilnn debt as a % of capitalization

1100

Long-term debt

Long-Iarm + aquity
Tola! debt

lIS

a % of capilalizalion

Total debt

1100

Tolal debt + equity


Total debt + 8 limos rents 81 a % of adju$ted ca.pitalimtion

1100

Total debt + 8 lim... lI'O" ...ntala paid


Talal debl + 8 ~""'.

"",tala

paid + equity

X 100

Glossary

Equity

Sharnholde .. equity (including p1B'arrvd atod<) plus minority intelllSl.

_ o".,..ting
c.hnow

Funds from oparations minus capitale~lUree.


capital (excluding changes in cash. markatable

Fund. from
OpatioM

noncash ams.

Gro.-.lnt.,.,..t

Grose inl8l8l1t incurred bafore aublnlcting (1) capitalized

Gro

,.,.w

In''''' e.zpen
L.ong-latm

N.t

debl

ea" now

minus (plua) the inera


..... (__
118CU_,
and ahart-Iarm debt).

) in worldng

Net ncome from continuing operations plus depreciation, wnortization, defend income bwaa .-td other
inla",e~

(2) inlol8llt_.

Gross operating rents paid before sublease income.


Interest incurred minus capitalized interest. plus amortization of capi\alized inlrest
M rapor1lld on the balance sh... ~ including capitali2lld

.......

obligations.

Funds rrom apa18~ons "'"" prafllrrad and common dividands.

OpH.ling im:om.

SaIN minus cost of goods manulaCluoad (beta ... depreciation and amortizalion), selling, go""raI and
administraw8, and research and development costs.

Prolax fundtl now

Pretax income from oontinuing operationSI plus depreciation,

Total debl

long-bnm

90

amortization. and other noncash Mme.

debt plus oJrrent malurities, commerciaJ pap8r, and oCher short-t8rm borrow;ngs.

Composite Cost of Long Term Debt


Applicable to the Years 2001 and 2002 and Going Forward Based Upon August 2003
Going
Forward
Based Upon
August 2003

Applicable
to the Year
2002 (2)

Applicable
to the Year
2001 (3)

5.57

5.47

7.54

Proxy. Group of Five Oil Pipeline Companies


Average Long Term Debt Cost Rate (4)

Proxy Group of ThreeJ5) Gas Pipeline Companies


Average Long Term Debt Cost Rate of the
Operating Subsidiaries of the Three (5) Gas Pipeline
Holding Companies Whose Bonds are Rated (6)

Recommended Hypothetical Debt Cost Rates (7)

Noles:

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)

6.49

6.03

7.45

6.46

7.49

7.52

Actual at year-end 2002.


Actual at year-end 2001.
Actual at year-end 2000.
From pege 2 of this Exhibit.
The proxy group of three gas pipeline companies was comprised of four gas pipeline companies in the
analysis appliceble to 2001 and 2002 as explained in Mr. Hanley's direct testimony.

(6) From page 3 of this Exhibit.


(7) Recommended hypothetical debt cost rates based upon the average debt cost rates of the
proxygGroup of five oil pipeline companies and the average long-term debt cost rate of the operating
subsidiaries of the three gas pipeline holding companies whose bonds are rated as explained by Mr.
Hanley in his accompanying direct and answering testimony, consistent with Order No. 151 in Docket
P-97-4, I.e., average of Line Nos. 1 and 2.

c
o

m""

'"
., _.z
)(
"tl:r~

'"to co
::;.".0
~"T1"tl

ot...b
_:I:",
",J,.J,.

Composite Cost of Long Term Debt of the


Proxy Group of Five Oil Pipeline Companies
Actual at December 31, 2000 December 31 2001 and December 31, 2002

Actual at
December 31,
2002 (1)

Proxy Group of Five


Oil Pipeline Companies
Buckeye Partners, L.P.
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P.
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.
TEPPCO Partners, L.P.
Average

Notes:

Actual at
December 31,
2000 (1)

5.16
5.70
4.50
6.70
5.77

5.55
7.72
3.10
5.90
5.10

6.98
7.77
7.91
7.38
7.67

5.57

5.47

7.54

(1) Supporting information on pages 1 through 15 of Workpaper

Source of Information:

Actual at
December 31,
2001 (1)

No. 2to Exhibit FJH-4.

Company Forms 10-K

g
m'"
-a~!!.

'" _z

tg ~?

N""
oc..o
_J:w

w!-!-

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-4
Page 3 of 3

Composite CosI of lJ:lng T errn Debt of the


Operating Gas Pipefll1e Subsidiaries of the
Proxy Group of Three (1) Gas Pipeline Compimies. for the
Years 2001 end 2002 and Going Forward Based Upon
August 2003

Going Forward

Based Upon
August 2003

2002

200'

Long-Tenn
Del<

Long- T"""
0...

Loog-Tenn

Cost
Rate (2)

Cost
Rate (2)

Cost
R.te(2)

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

8.67
8.88
7.72
8.09
7.34
7.18

EI PaflO Energy CoIp.

ANR Pipeline
Co. (3)
CoIor8do Intenate Gas Co. (3)
EI Paso t~atural Gas Co.
Florid. Gas Transmission (4)
Southern NatulCll Gas Co.
Tenner.see Gas Pipeline Co.
Enterprise
GulfTemi

Products

Plrtnl!rs,

Ertergy Partners,

..

L.P. (5)

8.35

NA

NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA

8.53

The Williams Companif!s. Inc


Kern River Gas Transmisslon Inc.
NorttMest Pipeline Corp.
Te:Gs Gas Transmission Corp.
Transcontinental Gas Pipeline Corp.
WlIlierns Gas Pipetines central, Inc.

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

6.49

NA

N_:

7.72
8.53
7.64
7.18

6.13

6.78

Aver1I98 for the Operating Subsidiaries of the


Thn!e Gas Pipeline HoldIng Ccrn1Jranlei
Whose Bonds Ire Rated (1)

NA

NA

NA

Florida Gas Transmission (6)


Northern Niltural Gas Co.
Transwe:stem Pipeline Co.
Average for the Operating Gas Pipeline
Subsidiaries of Enron Corporation
Kinder Morgan, Inc.

..

NA

6.56

L.P.

oe..

Not applicable

._.

as cornpeny

is

T"O
7.fi7

667

886

6.68
6.95
808
6.80
7.36

6.70
6.97
8.08
6.64
7.36

7.45

'It

..

IIiL

not a member

7.49

'It

01 the F:IfDXY group.

(1) Tho proxy group of ..... goo plpell


....lXlII1piInIes ....
cornprt&ed of four gas pipeline oompen_ in the Illna/ylils
applicable to 2001 and 2002. ellpIaIned In Ik. HanIei& di1ect
(2)

Supporting
W~per

infonT'lation on peges 1 throtJgh 18 of


NO.2 to 8d'libit FJH-4.

(01
Neither ANR Pipeline Company nor Cokndo Interstate Gas
Company were subsidiaries of EI Paso Energy Corp. in 2001.
(4)

is)

(6)

Source of Information;

Flaida Gas Transmission's Iong-lerm debt cost rate Is given


only 1 /28lh weight &ince EI Paso Ener;y Corp. haa only 8
50% interest in Florida Gas Transmission.

Formerfy EI Paso Energy Partnen>, LP.


Florida Gas Tnmsmission'slong-terrn
debt cosI rate is given
only 1 I 26th weight since Enron Corp. has onPy a SO'Io Interest
In FImdlI Gas Trar'I:SI7lls6kl.

ComplII'lY

Company

Filed FE,RC Foona 2


Annual Forms 1D-K

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-S
Discol.n:ed Ca&h Flow Model
Summary of Conclusion

Proxy Group of Three


Gas Pipe'ijne Companies (1)

Proxy Group 01 Five


Oil Pipeline Comeanies

line
Going Forward Based Upon August 2003

~
DISCOUntedCash Flow Model
,.

Single-Stage

15.0 %

Growth Version (1)

18.2 %

Two-Stage Growth Version


2.
3.

4.

13.3 %
142

Compound Growth (2)


FERC W~gl'1ted Growth (3)

Average Two-Stage Growth

12.3 %

15.5
13.8 %

13.9

14.4 '%

16.1 %

Appficabie

'JI,

for the Year 2002

Discounted Cash Flaw Modi!!


5.

15.6 %

Single-Slage Growth Version (Z)

15.6 "

Tv.o-Stage GrOWlh Version


6.
7.

13.7 %
15.1

Compound Growth (3)


FERC Weighted Growth (4)

9.8%

13.9

B.

Average Two-Stage Growth

144 "-

11.9 ...

9.

Average Discounted Cash Flew


Derived Comtnon Equity Cost Rate

150 ..

13.7 %

Applicab!e tor

the Year 2001

Discounted Cash fkJfl Model


10. Singie-S1llge G.-ooIh V""'"

17.5 %

(4)

19.5 %

Two-StBge Growth Version


11.
12.

Compound G'-'
(5)
FERCW.., ...... G.-. (6)

13.A_

T""",,,-G.-.

, 4. Average Discounted Cash Fbw


Derived Common Equity Cost Ride

Notes:

1.04.4 %
160

8.6 %
13.5
15.2

II)(,

16.4 "

11.1 '"

15.3 %

The proxy group of three gas pipeIrne compIInief, was comprised at IOU" gas pipel"1Ile
e:tJmPfJnies in Ihe l!Itl8Iysis applicable to 2001and 2002 8$ ellpIained in MI. HenJey'& direct
testimony.
(2) From page 1 of Extti FJH-6.
(3) From page, 1 of&hibit FJH-7.
(4) From p8ge 1 of EJd1ibit FJH-B.
(1)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-6

Page 1 of 7

Single-Stage GrOWlh Discounted


Summary

Cash Flow Mode

of Condusion

Proxy Group of Five


Oil PIpeline Companies

Proxy Group of Three


Gas Pipeline Companies (1)

Single-Stage Growth Discounted cash Flow Model Going


Forward Based Upon August 2003

Line No,

7.3 %

5.4 %

Dividend Growth
Component (3)

0.3

0.3

3.

Yield

7.6

5.7

4.

Growth Rate (4)

7.4

12.5

5.

Indicated Return Rate

1.

Dividend

2.

Yield (2)

18.2 %

15.0 %

Single-Stage

Growth Discounted cash Flow Model Applicable


for the Year 2002

8.

DiVIdend Yield (5)

7.1 %

1.8 %

7.

Dividend Growth
CompOnent (3)

0.3

0.1

B.

Yield

7.4

1.9

9.

Growth Rate (6)

B.2

13.7

10.

Indicated Return Rate

15.8 %

15.6 %

Single-Stage

Growth Discounted cash Flow Model Applicable


for the Year 2001

11.

DMdend Yield (7)

8.5 %

1.0 %

12.

DMdend Growth
Component (3)

0.4

0.1

13.

Yield

8.9

1.1

14.

Growth Rote (B)

B.8

18.4

15.

Indicated Return Rate

Notes:

19.5 %

17.5 %

(1) The proxy group of three gas ~peline companies was compri$ed 01lour gas
pipeline companies

in the anatysis applicable

to 2001

and 2002 as explained

in Mr. Hanley's direct testimony.

(2)
l31

From page 2 ofthi& Exhibit.


This reflects a growth rate component

the condusion
of
For example, 7.3% x ( 112 x

equal to one-half

growth rate on tines 4, 9, and 14, respectively.


7.4%) = 0.3%.

(4) Condusion of growth trom page 5 of this Exhitn


From page 3 of this Exhibit.
(6) ConclusiOfl of growth from page 6 of this Exhibit
(7) From page 4 of this Exhibit.
{B) Conclusion
of growth from page 7 of this Exhibtt.
(5)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-6

Page 2 of 7

Denvation
Discounted

of Dividend

Yield for Use in the Single-Stage

Cash Flow Model Going

Forward

Based

Dividend
Average

Proxy

Group

Growth

Upon August

2003

Yield

Average

Average

of

of

of

Average

Spot

Last 3

LastS

Last 12

Dividend

713112003(1,

Months (21

6.4 %
7.9
7.2
6.5

6.6 %
7.9
7.5
65

Months

(31

Months

(41

Yiela (5)

of FivE!

Oil Pipeline Companies


Buckeye Partners, L. P.
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P.
Kaneb

Pipe line

Partners,

L.P.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.


TEPPCO Partners, L.P.
Average
Proxy

Group

-LQ.

~96

-2..1.96

6.6 %
8.0
7.9
6.6
7.4

6.7 %
8.3
8.4
6.9

6.6 %
8.0
7.8
6.6

-l1.

7.3 'l6

-.ll'*'

~96

6.5 %
7.8

5.8 %
8.3
1.3

of Three

Gas Pipeline Companies


Enterprise
GulfTerra

Produm
Energy

Partners.
Partners,

6.8 %
7.3

L.P.
L.P. (6)

Kinder Morgan, Inc.


Aversgf"

Notes:

(1)

---l!1-

----ll

-ll

~%

~%

~%

The spot dividend


market

(2)

6.5 'l6
7.3

yield

is the current

price on July 31, 2003.

The average

3-month

----U!.

5.5 %

annualized

See Workpaper

dividend

5.6 %
7.7

dividend
NO.1

yield was computed

~%

per share divided

to Exhibit

by relating

by the spot

FJH-6.
the Indicated

annualized

dividend rate and market


July 31, 2003.
(3)

The average
dividend

The average
dividend

6-month

12-month

average

Source

of Information:

to Exhibit

No.1

yield.

emphasis

Former1y

EI Paso Energy

Standard

& Poor's Compustat

finance. yahoo. com

thereon.

Partners,

annualized
ended

by relating

the indicated

annualiZed

day of each of the twelve months

to Exhibit

This provides

the indicated

day of each of the 5;)( months

yield was computed

See Wol1tpaper

and spot dividend

by relating

ended

FJH-6.

price on the last trading

has been given to the 12-month

does not place undue


(6)

NO.1

dividend

rate and market

Equal weight

yield was computed

price on the last trading

See Workpaper

ended July 31, 2003.


(5)

dividend

rate and market

July 31, 2003.


(4)

price on the last trading day of each of the three months


See Workpaper
No.1 to Exhibit FJH-6.

FJH-6.

average,

6-month

recognition

See Workpaper

average,

of current
No.1

3-month

conditions,

to Exhibit

FJH-6.

LP.

Services.

Inc., PC Plus Research

Insight

Data Base

but

Docket No. P-03-4

Exhibit FJH-6

Page 3 of 7

Derivation

01 Dividend

Discounted

Cash

Yield for Use in the Single-Stage


Flow Model Applicable

Dividend
Average

Average

of
Lasl3

of
Last 6

Spot
1213112001(1)

Months (2)

6.7 %
6.3
7.3
5.8

6.9 %
6.2
7.3
5.9

Growth

to the Year 2002

Months

Yield
Average

of
Last 12

(3)

Months

Average
Dividend
Yield (5)

(4}

Proxy Group ot Five


Oil Pipeline Companies
Buckeye Partners, L.P.
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (6)
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, l.P.
TEPPCO Partners, L.P.
Average

-.-1.l...

---2.1.

6.9 %
7.9
7.3
5.9
6.9

-21.%

......L!.%

7.0 %

2.1 %
1.2

----2.Q.

2.0 %
1.2
1.0
__ '_._6

~%

~%

7.0 %
7.8
7.7
6.0

6.9 %
8.1
7.4
5.9

-.-U.

-.-U.

--21,.%

-L,l%

Proxy Group of Four


Gas Piperine Companies

2.1 %
1.1
1.0

EI Paso Corp. 17)


EI Paso Energy Partners, L.P.
Kinder Morgan. Inc.
The Williams Companies, Inc.
Average

Notes:

2.2 %
1.3
3.3

2.'4

__

1_6

1.8 %

2.1 %
1.2
1.9

---U.%

~%

(1J The spot dividend yield is the current annualIZed diVidend per share divided by the spot
market price on December 31, 2001. See Wor1<.paperNo.2 to Exhibit FJH-8.
(2) The average 3-month dividend yield was computed by relating the indicated annualized
dividend rate and market price on the last trading day of each of the three months ended
December 31, 2001. See Wor1(papef No.2 to Exhibit FJH-S.
(3) The average 6-month dividend yield was computed by relating the indicated annualized
dividend rate and market price on the last trading day of each of the six months ended
December 31,2001. See Workpaper No.2 to Exhibit FJH-El.
(4)

The average 12-month diVidend yield was computed by relating the indicated annualized
dividend fate and market price on the lest trading day of each of the twelve months
ended December 31,2001. See Workpaper No.2 to Exhibit FJH-6.

(5) Equal weight has been given to the 12-month average, 6-month average, 3-month
average and spot dividend yield. This provides recognition of current conditions, but
does not place undue emphasis thereon. See Workpaper No.2 to Exhibit FJH-6.
(6) Fonner1y Lakehead Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
(7) Formerly EI Pas.o Energy Corp.
Source of Information:

Standard & Poor's Compustat Services, Inc., PC Plus Research Insight Data Base

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-6

Page 4 of 7

Derivation of Dividend Yield for Use in the Single-Stage Growth


Discounted Cash Flow Model Applicable to the Year 2001

Spot
1213112000 (1)

Average
of
Last 3
Months (2)

8.3 %
9.1
6.0
8.5

6.1 %
9.9
6.9
8.8

Dividend Yield
Average
of
Last 6
Months (3)

A....
erage
of
Last 12
Months (4)

A....erage
Dividend
Yield (5)

Proxy Group of Five


Oil PIpeline Companies
Buckeye Partners, L.P.

f<.anebPipe line Partners, L.P.


Kinder Morgen Energy Partners, LP.
Lakehead Pipe Line Partners, LP.
TEPPCO Partners, L.P.
Average

---.ll %

--U%

8.3 %

8.6 %

10.1

10.5

7.0
8.8
8.5

7.3
9.1

~%

8.3 %
9.9
6.8
8.8

-!Z.

-!Z.

~%

~%

1.7 %
0.7
0.6
__ 1._5

0.7
0.5
__ 1_._5

~%

~%

Proxy Group of Four


Gas Pipeline Companies
EI Paso Energy Corp.
Enron Corporation
Kinder Margan, Inc.
The Williams Companies, Inc.

__

Average

Notes:

~%

1.2 %
0.6
0.'
1_.5

1.3 %
0.7
0.5

1.4 %
0.6
0.5
1.5

--!=2. %

~%

1.4%

(1) The spot dividend yield is the current annualIZed dividend per share divided by the spot
marke1 price on December 31,2000 See Workpaper No.3 to Exhibit FJH-6.
(2) The everege 3month dividend yield was computed by relating the indicated annualized
dividend rate and market price on the last trading day 01 each of the three months ended
December 31, 2000 See Workpaper NO.3 to Exhibit FJH-6.
(3) The average 6-month dividend yield was computed by relating the indicated annualized
dividend rate ana marKet price on the last trading day of each of the siX months ended
December 31, 2000 See Workpaper No.3 to Exflibit FJH-6.
(4) The Bverage 12-month dividend yield was computed by relating the Indicated annualized
dividend rate and market price on the last trading day or each or the twelve months
ended December 31,2000 See Workpaper NO.3 to Exhibit FJH-6.
(5) Equal weight has been given to the 12-month average, 6-month average, 3-month
average and spot dividend yield. This provides recognition of current conditions, but
does not place undue emphasis thereon. See Workpaper No.3 to Exhibit FJH-6.

Source of Information:

Standard & Poor's Compustat Services, Inc., PC Plus Research Insight Data Base

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit
FJH~
Page 5 of 7

Development of Projected Growth for Use in the Single-Stage Growth


Discounted Cash Flow Model Going Forward Based Upon August 2003

1
Value Line
Projected
2000-'02
2006-'08
Growth Rate
in EPS P}

6
IIB/EIS
Projected
Growth Rate
in EPS (2)

Average Projected
Five-Year
Growth Rate
in EPS (3)

5.5 %
NA (4)
NA (4)
12.0
5.0

4.0 %
7.0
7.0
11.0
8.0

4.8 %
7.0
7.0
11.5
6.5

7.5 %

7.4 %

7.4 %

8.0 %
NA (4)
22.0

10.0 %
9.0
17.0

9.0 %
9.0
19.5

15.0 %

12.0 %

12.5 %

Five-Year

Proxy Group of Five


Oil Pipeline Companies
Buckeye Partners, L.P.
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P.
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L. P.
TEPPCO Partners, L.P.
Average
Proxy Group of Three

Gas Pipeline Companies


Enterprise Products Partners, L.P.
GulfTerra Energy Partners, L.P. (5)
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
Average

Notes:

Source of Information:

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

As shown on pages 1 through 5 of Worl<paper NO.4 to Exhibit FJH~.


See Workpaper No.5 to Exhibit FJH~.
Average of Columns 1 and 2.
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P., Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P., and
GulfTerra Energy Partners, L.P. are not covered by Value Line
Investment Survey in its Standard Edition.
(5) Formerly EI Paso Energy Partners, L.P.

Value Line Investment Survey, June 13, and 20, 2002


Standard & Poor's Earnings Guide, December 2002

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit
FJH-6
Page 6 of 7

Development of Projected Growth for Use in the Single-Stage Growth


Discounted Cash Flow Model Applicable to the Year 2002

1
Value Line
Projected
1998-'00
2004-'06
Growth Rate
in EPS (1)

Z
I/B/EIS
Projected
Five-Year
Growth Rate
in EPS (2)

Average Projected

Five-Year
Growth Rate
in EPS (3)

Proxy Group of Five


Oil Pipeline Companies
Buckeye Partners, L.P.
Enbridge Energy Partners, LP. (5)
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, LP.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, LP.
TEPPCO Partners, LP.
Average

7.5 %
NA (4)
NA (4)
11.0
6.0
8.2 %

7.0 %
7.0
6.0
14.0
10.0

7.3 %
7.0
6.0
12.5
8.0

8.8 %

8.2 %

Proxy Group of Four

Gas Pipeline Companies


13.0 %
NA (4)

EI Paso Corp. (6)


EI Paso Energy Partners, L. P.
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
The Williams Companies, Inc.

Source of Information:

11.0
14.3
15.5

12.5 %

15.3 %

13.7 %

9.5

Average

Notes:

15.0

15.0 %
11.0
19.0
16.0

14.0 %

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

As shown on pages 1 through 6 of Wor1<paper NO.6 to ExhiM FJH~.


See Wor1<paper NO.7 to Exhibit FJH~.
Average of Columns 1 and 2.
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P., Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, LP., and
EI Paso Energy Partners, L.P. are not covered by Value Line
Investment Survey in its Standard Edition.
(5) Formerly Lakehead Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
(6) Formerly EI Paso Energy Corp.

Value Line Investment Survey, December 14, and 21, 2001


Standard & Poo(s Earnings Guide, December 2001

Docket

No. P-034
FJH-6
Page 7 of 7

Exhibit

Development of Projected Growth for Use in the Single-Stage Growth


Discounted Cash Flow Model Applicable to the Year 2001

1
Value Line
Projected
f997'99
2003'05
Growth Rate
in EPS (1)

f.

IIB/EIS
Projected
Five-Year
Growth Rate
in EPS (2)

Average Projected
FiveYear
Growth Rate
in EPS (3)

(4)
(4)

6.0 %
5.0
15.0
9.0
9.0

6.8 %
5.0
13.0
9.0
9.0

9.3 %

8.8 %

8.6 %

Inc.

18.0 %
29.5
9.5
24.5

14.0 %
17.0
18.0
16.0

16.0 %
23.3
13.8
20.3

Average

20.4 %

16.3 %

18.4 %

Proxy Group of Five


Oil Pipeline Companies
Bucl<eye Partners, L.P.
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.
Lakehead Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
TEPPCO Partners, L.P.
Average

7.5
NA
11.0
NA
NA

%
(4)

Proxy Group of Four


Gas Pipeline Companies
EI Paso Energy Corp.
Enron Corporation
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
The Williams Companies,

Notes:

Source of Information:

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

As shown on pages 1 through 6 of Worl<paper No. 8to Exhibit FJH-6.


See Workpaper NO.9 to Exhibit FJH-6.
Average of Columns 1 and 2.
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P., lakehead Pipe Line Partners, L. P.
and TEPPCO Partners, L.P. are not covered by Value Line
Investment Survey in its Standard Edition.

Value Line Investment Survey. December 15. and 22, 2000


Standard & Poo~s Earnings Guide, December 2000

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-7
Page 1 of 7

Two-Stage

Compound

Glowth Discounted Cash Flow Model

Summary of Condusion

Proxy Group of Five


Oil Pipeline Companies

line No.

Proxy Group of Three


Gas Pipe~ne Companies (1)

Going Forward Based Upon August 2003

1.

Dividend Yield (2)

7.3 %

5.4 %

2.

Dividend Growth
Component (3)

02

0.2

3.

Yield

7.5

5.6

4.

Growth Rete

5.8 (4)

6.7 (5)

5.

Indicated Return Rate

13.3 0.4

12.3 %

Applicable to the Year 2002

6.

Dividend Yield (6)

7.1 %

1.8 %

7.

Dividend Growth
Component (3)

0.2

0.1

8.

Yield

7.3

1.9

9.

Growth Rate

6.4 (7)

7.9 (8)

10.

IndIcated Return Rate

13.7 %

9.8 %

Applicable to the Year 2001

11.

DMdend Yield(9)

8.5 %

1.0 %

12.

DivIdend Growth
Component (3)

0.2

0.0

13.

Yield

8.7

1.0

14.

Growth Rate

5.7 (10)

7.6 (11)

15.

Indicated Retum RBte

Notes:

14.4 %

8.6 %

(1) The proxy group of three gas pipeine companies was


comprised of five gas pipeline companies in the analysis
app{icable to 2001 and 2002 as explained in Mr. Hanley's direct
(2) From page 2 of Exhibit FJH-6.
(J) This retlects a growth rate component equal to one-half the
conclusion at growth rate (from page 2 01 this Exhiat) x Une
No.1 to re1lect the periodic payment of dividends (Gordon
Model) as opposed to the continuous payment Thus, 7.3% x

(1/2 x 5.8%) = 0.2%.


(4)

(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)

Conclusion
Conclusion
From page
Conclusion
Conclusion
From page
Conclusion
Conclusion

of growth from page


of growth from page
3 or Exhibit FJH-6.
of growth from page
of growth from page
4 of Exhibit FJH-6
of growth from page
at grO'Nlh from page

2 ofthts Exhibit

5 of this Exhibit
3 of this Exhibit
5 of this Exhibit.
4 of this Exhibit
7 of this Exhibit.

Two-Stage Compound Growth OiscO\Jnted Cash Flow Model Using IIBIE/S Projected Five-Year Growth in Eamings
Et,m1rm p'r hem and Annual GrgMb in GrO' Dornntic product Going FQfWIId Bged Upon AuguM 2003

Proxy Group of Five Oil Pipeline

Ccrnpaniee

Morgan
Bud<e)'e

Partners. L.P.

YDl
IndiClled Annual Dividend per
ghar. at July 31.2003 (1)
Dividend'per Share

2003

(2)

2004
2005
2006

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
201~
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

Compound

(3)

$2.550
2.593
2.697
2.80S
2.917
3.~
3.201
3.374
3.560
3.752
3.955
~.166

OM
4.614

~.854
5.111
5.382
5.667
5.962
6.266
6.598

Enbrldge

Kaneb

Energy
Partners, L.P.

PlpeU~
Partnel"l, L.P.

$3.700

$3240

3.800
4.075

3.335
3.568
3.818
4.085
4.371
4.611
4.860
5.127
5.404
5.696
5.998
6.316

~.360
4,665
4.992
5.267
5.551
5.856
6.172
6.505
6.850
7.213
7.588
7.983
8.~06
8.852
9.321
9.806
10.306
10.852

Morgan
Energy
Partl'lere, L.P.

$2.600

$2.500

2.719

2.583
2.790

3.018
3.350
3.719
4.128
4.355
4.590
4.842
5.103

5.379
5.564
5.964

5a

Nates:

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

5.1lf,

AV8111gefor the
Proxy Group of Five Oil
Pipeline Comtlanie8

3.013
3.254

3.5'4
3.707
3.907

4.122
4.345
~.580
4.823

6.274

5.079
5.343

7.359
7.749
8.160
8.584
9.022
9.500

6.600
6.850
7.318
7.706
8.107
8.520
8.972

5621
5.919
6.233
8.563
6.904
7.266
7.5"1

5.1lf,

6.644
6.989

Annual

Growth Rote (4)

TEPPCO
Parfnera. loP.

:lJllIo

From Workpet)er NO.1 to Exhibit FJH-6.


DMdenda per.m.re for the years 2003-2007 are developed ullng IIBIEIS proJected five-year growlh in eemings
per ahllre e hown In Column 2 on p.ge 5 of Exhibit FJH-6.
Dividends per .hare fOf the years 20052019 are developed u.lng the annual growth In Gross Domea1ie Product
shown on page 1 ofWorkp8per No.1 to Exhib~ FJH-7.
Compound annlMl grOlotf:hnile;' calculated from the indicJ!IIlttdIInnual dividend per share at July 31. 200310 the
projeeUtd dividend per .hare for the year 2022. For example. Buckeye Pllrtnerw.. L.P .'. compound annual growth
me of 5.0% I. dertved .II, follows: 5.0,*, '" ( ( $6.598' $2.550) " ( 1 , (19+ (5112) ) 1 ).

m'"

,,;!
.. _Z
tg ~?
N"TI-C

0'-0
_J:W
Source of InfClmlIltIon:

Standard & Poor's Compuatllt SelVien, Inc., PC Plus Databale


Energy Infonnatlon Admlnislration: Annual Energy Outlook 2003
Social Security Admlnjsfndlon: 2003 58l Annual Report

......
~J:.

Two-Slage Compound Gl"CJW(hDiscounted Cash Flow Model Using lIBIEIS Projected Five--Year Growth
In Elm!ng, per Shirl and AnOlIl! Grawlh In Grpu Domes"' Pmdyc:! Applicable IQ the Year 2002

Pr0ll\' Gmup or Five Oil Pipeline Companies


Klncler

L.P. (5)

Kaneb
Pipe LIne
Partners, L.P,

Morgan
Energy
Panners, L.P.

PlIrtnerll. loP.

$2.500

$3.500

$3.000

$2.200

$2.300

2.675

3.745
4.007

3.160
3.371
3.573
3.787
4.014
4.235
4.476

2508
2.659
3.259
3.715

2.530
2.763

Enbrklge
Buckeye
Partners, loP.

Y.m
IndIcated AnnulIl Dividend per
Share at December 31. 2001 (1)

Dividends per Share

2002

(2)

200J
2004
2005

200Il
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

(3)

202\

Compound Annual
Gruwth Rot. (4)

4.587

4.008

7,474
7.693

5.Slb

5.Slb

0.zJ6.

7.018

2019
2020

4.267

5.286
5.577
5.878
6.201
5.542
6.695
7.274
1.674
8.104
6.558
9.031

4.617
4.871
5.134
5.416
5.714
6.023
6.354
6.103

2016

Partners

5.178
5.473
5.785
8.115
5.464
6620
7.188
7.583
6.000
6.432
6._
9.365
9.911
10.466
11.052

4.132
4.366

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

Notes:

2.8Il2
3.062
3.276
3.505
3.696
3.llOll

Energy

4.731
5.CXI1

4.235
4.48Il
04.723
4.992

5.277
5.578

5.885
6.203
6.544
6.904
7.277
7.677
6.099
6.553
9.032
9.538

z.u

TEPPCO

Avel1lQlIlor the
or Five 011
Pipeline Companies

Prolty Group

3.061
3.367
3.704
3.906

4.131
4._
4615
4.B78
5.148
5.424
5.722
6.031
6.363
6.713
7.062
7.471:1
7.696
6.340

0.zJ6.

U},

(1) From Wor1q:laper No. 210 Exhibit FJH-6.


(2) DMdlnds
per shere for thl yearl 2002-2006 Irl developed using I/BlE,/S projected flve..year growth In earnings per
shire (IS a/1Qwn In Column 2 on psg. 6 of E.mJbtt FJH-6.
(3) Dividends per Ihare for Ihe)'l!ll" 20012021 are developed usIng the annual growth In Grosa Domea11c Product
ahown on page 2ofWOl1tpI.per NO.1 to Exhibit FJH7.
Cot) Compound InnuII growth rate '- calculated from lhelndlealed
annual dMdend persh(lre 81 Deeembel
2001 10
the projected dividend per ahare for the yellr 2021. For e'llBmpll!. Buckeye Pertn .... , l.P .'a compound annual growth
r8te of 5.9"''' dertved as follow3: 5.~" ({ $7 893 I $2.500) A ( 1 120) _ 1 ).
(5) Fonnerty u.kel'lead Pipe Una Partners, l.P.
(6) Formerty
PlIO Energy Corp.

J'.

el

o
n
m""

-o;!
"' _. Z

8oon::e of Information:

Slandlrd & Poor'l CompUstat Se1v!ces, Inc., PC Plus D.laball


Energy Information AdmInistration;
Annual Energy Outlook 2002
Soclll securtty AdmInistration; 2001 581 Annual Report

~ g?
w"T1-C

ot..b
... :I:w

......
~.L.

T'Ml-Stlige Compound Growlh DI!lcounted Ca.h Flow Mod'i Using IIBIEIS Projectlltd Flv.-V"r
Growth
In E.mlnm
Sb'!'Ilnd AnDUIIGrawl:h In GroM Qomullc prgduct Applicable to!bn V"lr 2001

P'f

PrO!)' Group of FIv' 011PIpeline ComQlnla

Indleattd

Annual Ofvfdend

KIInlb
Pipe L1n.
Partners loP.

Klnllir
Morgan
Energy
Partn,rl, L.P.

l.8hh .. d
PI~L1n.
P,rtnlrs loP.

(1)

$2.Kl

52.800

11.700

$3.500

$2.100

(2)

2 .....

2.940
3.087

3.815
41.158
4.532
".940
.30.
5.643
5.914
8.198

2.289
2.495
2.720

TEPPCO
Partners L.P.

Averil;. for the


of Five all
Pipeline Companies

Proxy Gmup

ptr

5hl11l at Dletmber 31, 2000


DIVidend. per 6".~

Buck..,..
Pal1nlrs L.P.

200'
2002
2003

2.897

.004
200.
2000
2007
2000
2009

20'0
2011
2012
2013
20'4
201!S
2018
2017
2018
2019
2020

Compound Annual
Growfl Rit. (of)

Notes:

(3)

2.859
3.001
3.213
'.367
3.529

,....

3.878
. 00>
",241

'.<30
".6049
4.877

....

3.241
3.403

3.573
3.745
3.925
4.113
".310
....517
"'.718
04.933
S.170
~.423

UlIo

3.959

4.133
4.323
4.531
4.753

......
. 000

.....
7.248

UlI

5.Sli

.....

5.956
8.242
..SS<

8.195
Ui17

3.805
3.778

5.220
5.471
5.745
15.038
6.352

....

5.1313

3.440

7.108
7.435
7.792
8174
8.575
8.978
9.409
9.879
10.383
10.923

!S.118

1.921
2171
2.4~3
2.772
3.132
3.282

.....

2.965

3.232
'307

,....,
,......
3.720

"..
".268

'<0,
4.676

'.900
5.145
5.387
5 ....
5.928
15.230
5.SS<

5.Sli

(1) From Wor1cpll~ No.3 to Exhlbll:FJH-6.


(2) OMdlnds per sha,. for Itle ynl'l 20012005 are d...... loped ullng L1BJEJS projlCted flve.year growth In Hrning!
~rshtlf1l's
shown In ColUMn 2 on ~e
7 of Exhibit FJH-e.
(3) DMcIends per .... ,. for tM ynrs 2008-2020 .re d ..... ,oped using Itle .nnu.l growrt1ln Gross Domestic Product
shown on pege 3 GlWorItpI,per No.1 to ExhIbit FJH7.
(4) Compound .nnu.1 growtl'l f1INII calculated ProMItle Indicated .nnual dMcHondper sNi,. at Decemblr 31, 2000
to the projltdad dlYldend per
for !he YMr 2020. For ... mple, Buc:kl)'l Partnll'l,l.P.'. COfIlpclUTId
Innu.'
growth ma 015.1 'I. I. ~d.s
follows: 5.1".
'15.5171 '2.0400) (1/20).1
).

ah.,..

c
o
n

m~
""C~

...

.. -. Z

Sourtl'lollnfonnatlon:

Stand.rd & Poor's Compustllt S.rvlc.s, Inc., PC Plus RItH.rc:h InslgM DIIwbls.
En.rgy Inform.lkln Aclmlnllnllon: Annu.l Energy Outlook 2000
Soclal S.cLrity Admlrtlmlon:
2000 SSI Ant!u.J Report

~ ~?
~"71"'C

0'-0

.. :I:w

..... ~~

Two-Stage Compound GrowIh Discounted Cesh Flow Model Using lJB1E1S Projected Five-Year Grcwth In Earnings
Eomjog. Per Share and Annual Growth in Gro" DomnHc product GoIng Forward BaBf!:d Upon August 2003

Proxy Group 01 Three Gal Pipeline Comeentes


Enterprise

Products
Pal1nertl,

Yur
Indicated Annual DMdend per
Share et July 31. 2003 (1)
DIvidend.per Shtue

2003
2001

(2)

2005
2006
2007
200S

(3)

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2016
2019
2020

Gutrrl!llTB
Energy

Kinder

Partners,

Morgan

L.P.(5)

$1.450

52.600
2.998
3.266
3562

Pipeline Comoenies

S1.6oo

1.~
1.6500
1.819
2.001

31l!l3

2.201

.. 232

2.322
2.447
2.582
2.721
2.668
3.020

4.465
4.706

5.233
5.516
5.606

3.907

3.180

6.116
6.434

~.332
4.557

6.769
7.126
7.506
7.~

4.794

3.~
3.519

~.965

1.600
1.872
2.190

2562
2.996
3.163
3.3~
3.517
3.707
4.114

2021

~.543

8.315
8.739

2022

4.784

9.202

5.~6
5.316
5.596
5.889
6.189
6.517

IUlIo

IUlIo

Ul!l

3.706
3.902
4.109
4.323

Compound AnnUlI!
Growth Rata (4)

Nel .. :

A .... rtIQe fOf the


Proxy Group of Four GaS

(1)
(2)

From Woriq)BPM No.1 to Exhibit FJH-6.


OMcIencN per share for the ye8~ 2003-2007 8ra developed using IIBIE/S prn}eeted
frve-)'elIf growth In earnIngs per .hare 85 ehCM'flln Column 2: on page 5 of Ext'1ibit

(3)

Dividendi per llt'1arefor the yesrtI 2005-2019 ere developed using tt'1eIlnnuBI guwlt'1
In Gr08l Domellilc Product shown on page 1 ofWorkp8per NO.1 to EJlhlblt FJH7.
Compound .nnual growth rale is ca.lculi!d:edfrom tt'1eincllcated annual dMdend per
s"ere Sf July 31, 2CXl3 to Ihe prOieCfed dMdend per shere for fhe year 2022. For
example, Enterprise Products Pertneni, L.P." ccmpound annuel grONth rate of 6.3%
Ie dertved as follOWll: 6.3% '" ( ( 14.784 , $1.450)" ( 1 '(19+ (5112) ).1 ).

(~)

lUl!>

5'n

m'"

-C;!l
.. _.z
'"Cll C"
=: 0
.

","T1"tJ

Oc...b
_:I:w
Source of Informllltton:

Standard & poor's ComptJBlal Services, Inc .. PC Plus Database


Energy Informel.lon Admlnislration:
Annual Energy Outlook 2003
Boclel 5acurtly Adminlslration: 2003 55! Annual Report

.....,':"'J:.,

e
Two-Stage

Compound

In Ellm1rm

Growth Discoul"ited Cash FIr.m Model Using IIBIEIS Projected Five-Year Growth

per Share Bod AnmJal

Grw.1h

In G!'QS!I

Domestic

product

ADQljcabl1

IQ the YMr

2002

PrOll"t Group of Four Gas Plpenne Companln


EIPIIBO
EI Paso

Yur

Com....1ID.....-

Indicated Annual Dividend per


Share lit December 31, 2001 (1)
Dividends per 8M'"

2002
2003

(2)

Energy

KInder

Partners,

"'-"

l..P,

Ine,

$0.850

S2.45O

SO.2OO

0.978
1.125

0.238
0.283
0.337

3.720

0""

ThllWllllllme
Companies,

Pipeline Comoanles

SO.8OO

2lJ04
2lJ05

1.29<

2.720
3.019
3.351

2lJ05
2007

1.711

4.129

0.477

D.g2S
1.076
1.248
1.44Il
1.lleO

1.505
1.9011

'.355

0.503

1.m

'.60<

..

0.532
0.562

1.873
1.000

5.143
5'<35

0.59<

2.093

0.628

5.735

0.6<l3

6.045

0.899
0.737
0.778

2.212
2.33<
2.<50
2.595
2.738
2.llee
3.045
3.212

use
(3)

2lJ08
2lJ09
2010
2011
2012
2013
201.
2015
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

2.017

2.132
2.254
2.378
2.500
2.M<
2.769
2.9<0
3.102
3.273
3.455

6.728
7.091
7.481
7.692
533<

3.650

8.801

3.e5<

9.29<

1.018
1.075

I.Sl&

a.slb

Il.llllo

a.3n

Average for the


PrDl(\( Group of Four Ges

0.520
0.B65
0.913

0._

3.392
3.582

3.783

Compound Annual
Growth Rile (4)

Nota:

Il.Ua

I.Sl&

Frtlm WOI1cpBper No.2 to ExhlbR FJH-6.


OlYldenc:l. per .hlre for lhl yei!lrs 2002-2006 ere developed uslng I/BlEIS pro}eeled rtve-year growlh In eamlngs
per .hlre 15 shown In Column 2 on pagl6 of Exhlbl'l FJH-6.
(3) DMdend. peT' share for lhe yearl2007-2021
Ire developed lI!Ilng the annual grlJ'Mh In Grosl Domatlc
Produd
lhown on pege 2 ofWor1<paper NO.1 to Elilhlbll FJH-7.
(4) Compound Innull growth rete II ca!curlled from the Indicated Innusl dMdend per shl!!lre It December 31, 2001
to lhe projected dtvldlnd per sf'IIre for the yelr 2021, For l!IC8mple, El PIIIO Energy Corp:. compound annual
gwMh RIle of 7.9lIlI1a dertved follcWl: 7.9ll''' $3.8541 SO.8S0) " ( 1/20) - 1 ).
(5) Fonnerty Lakeheld Pipeline Pertnll'S, loP.
(8) Fonnertv EI PlIO Energy Corp.
(1)
(2)

~
n

m"'"
.,,~!
III

_Z

~ ~?
Source of Information:

Slandlrd & Poor'. Compustat Servlce&, Inc., PC Plus Dltabase


Energy Infannatlon Admlnllllllllon:
Annual El'M!rgy Oullook 2002
Socl.1 5ecUr1ty Administration:
2001 55! AnnUllI Report

",."."

0'-0

... :I:w

.... .:.,J,.

Tw0-St8ge Compound Growth Discounted C.sh Flow Mod,r UsIng IIS'EIS Profected F,.....Yur
Growth
In Elmlng!! plr Shirt .od Anny.! GrpwIh In GmU [)9mMl!; f'rpdyd AppllCibl. !p Ibt Y'D' 2001

PI'!?lC'tGroup or Four GIS PIPIIlln. Complnles

EfPllIO
Energy

:tur

""""---

Indlcdld Annuli OMd.nd per


Sh.rw at Dec.mber 31. 2000 (1)
DMdINldl. pe, SM'.

2001

a)

'00'
'003
2004

'000
2008

'007
2008
2Oll9
2010
2011
2012
2013
20141
201S

201.
2017
2018
2019

'020
CClmpound AnnUIIl
Growth R .. (of)

Notl':

(3)

Kinder
Morgen
Inc. (6)

foroo
Corp.

The wm.",s
ComPllo'n.
--.!!2,.

SO.824

$0.500

$0.200

$0.600

0.939
1.070
1.220
1.391
1.58e
1.002

0'65
0.684
O.SIlO
0.'"
1.095
1.148
1.203
1261
1.322
1.385
1.446
1.513
1....

0'36
0.218
0.328
0.387
0.-457
0.479
0-""
0528
0.551
0.577
0.602
0.030
0.660
0.692

0 ....
0.807
0.936
1.000
1.2l!lO
1.320
1.363
1.449
1.519
1.sa2
1.862
1.738
1.821
1.Q1D

1.742
1.828

1.91.4

'.000
2.09"
2.190
'.2llS
2.0401
2.525

,....

...

ons

,00<

2.771
2.!il1D
3.0
3.217

1.7046
1.828
1.916
2.012
2.115
2.225

0.760
0.796
0.836
0.879
0.925

2.098
2.199
2.309
204127
2.553

Lla

z.a

a.mr.

La

A.... ntg.for the


Pnny Group of Four GI.
PI~UM Companies

z.a

(1) From WClfkplperNo. 3 to ElChlbltFJH-6.


(2) Dlvldlndl ptr shirt lor th' yelrs 20012005 Irt d ..... loped using IIBIEJS projected f1~.~lr
growth In
Nmlngs per Shirl IS shown In o,hJmn :2 01"1 pigi 7 or ElChlbitFJH8.
(3) DlvldlndS per .h.rt for till yelrs 2006-2020 Irl d.......oped uslng thl annUli growth In Gross Oom .. tlc
Product Ihown on pegl 3 ofWort:plper No.1 to ElChlbll.FJH-7.
(4) Compound InnUlI growth rtN 15calculated from tIl.lndlcabld InnuII dlvldlnd per sh.r.1I Declmber 31,
2000 to the projected dlvtdend plr ,hlrl for thl YI.r 2020. For l)(IImpll, EI PlIO EnlIVY Corp.'. compoul'Kl
InnuII gl'ClWlf1
nlt. of 8.8'" I. derived IS fol1C1W1:
8.8%. $2.988 I $0.824) ...( 1 f 20) 1 ).

c
o
n

m""
"'C~~

III-,2

SOUn::1or Inform.n:

St.ndlrd & Poor's Compuslll SlIT\ii~S, Inc.. PC Plus RIIIllrch In!llght o.tabl ..
Energy Informlllon Admlnl5lrdon: AnnulIl Enlrgy OulIook 2000
Socll16ecurity Administration: 2000 S81 Annual RIP()rt

~ g?
.....,,-0

at-a
... :I:w
......~J:.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-8
Page 1 of 4

Two-Stage

FERC Weighted Growth Discounted


Summary of Conclusion

Proxy Group of Five


Oil Pipeline Companies

Cash Flow Model

Proxy Group of Three


Gas Pipeline Companies (1)

Going Forward Based Upon August 2003

Line No.
1.

Dividend Yield 12)

7.3 %

5.4 %

2.

Dividend Growth
Component (3)

0.2

0.3

7.5

5.7

6.7

9.8

3.
4.

Growth Rate (4)

5.

Indicated Return Rate

14.2 %

15.5 %

J\ppIicable to the Year 2002

6.

Dividend Yield (5)

7.1 %

1.8 %

7.

Dividend Growth
Component (2)

0.3

0.1

8.

Yield

7.4

1.9

9.

Growth Rate (6)

7.7

10.

Indicated Return Rate

120

15.1 %

13.9 %

Applicable to the Year 2001

11.

Dividend Yield (7)

8.5 %

1.0 %

12.

Dividend Growth
Component (2)

0.3

0.1

13.

Yield

8.8

1.1

14.

GrOl>1h ROlle (8)

7.2

12.4

15.

Indicated Return Rate

Noles:

16.0 %

13.5 %

The proxy group of three gas pipeline companies was comprised of tour
gas pipeline companies in the analysis appJicable to 2001 and 2002 as
12) From page 2 01 Exhibit FJH-6.
(3) This reflects a grov.1.h rate component equal to one-half the conclusion of
growth ..ate (from page 2 of this Exhibit) x woe No. 1 to reflect the periodic
payment of dividends (Gordon Model) as opposed to the continuous
payment. Thus, 7.4%.(1/2.6.7%)=0.2%.
(1)

(4)

Conclu~on 01 growth flam page 2 01 this Exhibit.


15) From page 3 of this Exhibit.
(6) Conclusion 01 growth from page 3 01 thiS Exhibit.
(7) From page 4 01 Exhibit FJH-6.
(8) Conclusion 01 grO'Nth from page 4 of this Exhibit.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-a
Page 2 of 4

r
I

Development of Projected Growth for Use in the Twe-Stage FERC Weighted Growth
Discounted Cash Flow Model Going Forward Based Upon Augusl2003

1
I/B/EIS
Projected
Five-Year
Growth Rale
in EPS (1)

Projected Growth
in Gross

Domeslic
Product (2)

Conclusion of
Growth Rate (3)

Proxy Group of Five


Oil Pipeline Companies
Buckeye Partners, LP.
Enblidge Energy Partners. L.P.
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, LP.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, LP.
TEPPCO Partners, LP.
Average

4.0 %
7.0
7.0
11.0
8.0

5.3 %

5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3

4.4 %
6.4
6.4
9.1
7.1

7.4 %

5.3 0/0

6.7 %

Proxy Group of Three


Gas Pipeline Companies
Enterplise Products Partners, LP.
GulITerra Energy Partners, LP. (4)
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
Average

Noles:

10.0
9.0 %

5.3
5.3 %

17.0

5.3

12.0 %

5.3 %

8.4
7.8 %
13.1
9.8 %

(1) From Column 2 on page 5 of Exhibit FJH-a.


(2) From page 1 of Workpaper NO.1 10Exhibit FJH-7.
(3) Weighted average of Columns 1 and 2. 2/3 "-COlumn 1 ) +
( 1 1 3 " Column 2) ).
(4) Fonnelly EJPaso Energy Partners, L.P.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-8
Page 3 of 4

Development of Projected Growth for Use in the Two-Stage FERC Weighted Growth
Discounted Cash Flow Model Applicable to the Year 2002

1
IIBIEiS

Projected
Five-Year
Growth Rate
in EPS (1)

Projected Growth
in Gross
Domestic

Product (2)

Conclusion of
Growth Rate (3)

Proxy Group of Five


Oil Pipeline Companies

Buckeye Partners, L.P.


Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (4)
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.
TEPPCO Partners, L.P.
Average

7.0 %
7.0
6.0
14.0
10.0

5.6 %
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6

6.5 %
6.5
5.9
11.2
8.5

8.8 %

5.6 %

7.7 %

15.0 %
11.0
19.0
16.0

5.6 %
5.6
5.6
5.6

11.9 %
9.2
14.5
12.5

15.3 %

5.6 %

12.0 %

Proxy Group of Four


Gas Pipeline Companies
EI Paso Energy Corp. (5)
EI Paso Energy Partners, L.P.
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
The Williams Companies, Inc.

Average

Notes:

(1) From Column 2 on page 6 of Exhibit FJH~.


(2) From page 2 of Workpaper NO.1 to Exhibit FJH-7.
(3) Weighted average of Columns 1 and 2. 2 1 3 Column 1 ) +
( 1 1 3 Column 2.
(4) Formerly Lakehead Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
(5) Formerly 1 Paso -EnergyCorp.

Docket No. P~3-4

Exhibit FJH-8
Page 4 of 4

Development

of ProjeC1ed Growth for Use in the Two-Stage FERC Weighted Growth


Discounted Cash Flow Model Applicable to the Year 2001

1
I/B/EIS
ProjeC1ed
Five-Year
Growth Rate
in EPS (1)

ProjeC1ed Growth

in Gross
Domestic
ProduC1 (2)

Conclusion of
Growth Rate (3)

Proxy Group of Five


Oil Pipeline Companies
Buckeye Partners, L.P.
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.
Lakehead Pipe Line Partners, L.P.
TEPPCO Partners, L.P.

6.0 %
5.0
13.0
9.0
9.0

4.8 %
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8

5.6 %
4.9
10.3
7.6
7.6

Average

8.4 %

4.8 %

7.2 %

14.0 %
17.0
18.0
16.0

4.8 %
4.8
4.8
4.8

10.9 %
12.9
13.6
12.3

16.3 %

4.8 %

12.4 %

Proxy Group of Four


Gas Pipeline Companies
EI Paso Energy Corp.

Enron Corporation
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
The Williams Companies,

Inc.
Average

Notes:

(1) From Column 2 on page 7 of Exhibit FJH~.


(2) From page 3 of Wor1<paper No. 1to Exhibit FJH-7.
(3) Weighted average of Columns 1 and 2. 2 I 3 Column 1 ) ...
( 1 13 Column 2) ).

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-9
Page 1 of 9

--RISk Premiurn
Su!T!T!!!!"f d

Model

CordU5ion
PrCllCYGroup

01 Tlveo Goo

"'""""

camP!!l'lie6

,.

PrcJ(,pectit' YII!'Id on Aall RiIled


Corporal~ BoI1dS (2)

AdjUSlmenl to Rei*!
yeti SpImd.
~
A.ae Riled CorpcnIe
BoI'1d5 end A Reled Public Wily

MJlAWd ~
A ~lIIed Public

YIelO

IAJlIty 6onI:S
EloncI
F'ralrt Gn:up

AdJl.Jlled ~

EloncI Veld

Equty

('6)

RISk Pm'nlUrn

,."

1.0 (3)

1 0 (3)

.0

.0

0.2 (.II)

03

on:

Adj~ment 10 RelIeo::I
RBI1ng DIfItnnoeo d

7.

Bcrods

5.9 --.

..
71

RISk Premium DerM!d Corrmon


Equity Cost RMe

,.

PrtJripectJYe Yield 01:


Au R~ CDpcr.IIe
AdJustrnenl

11 5 'M.

eer-n

8McIs (7)

Ratll!d

1::.'0 %

to ~

Yea' ;;mo2

7.0

"

70

07

(7)

0.7 (8)

to RetI8c:l YI8Id SprMd.


Aaa

"

Adiusted Pros.pec:l.Ne Yeid on:


A Ralecl Putlllc U11lrfy Borld6

77

11.

Adjl.lSl~I'O~Bor1d
Rlllhng DIIIere'1ce 01 Pro:o;y Group

0']

12

AdJ\5ted Proipec:lIye Bond Y"1I!ld

79

81

"

E-q1.Cy RISk PrerrMmI

'.S

,.,

(6)

Rlik Prernum DenwId O::m'non


equity COIf R.m

77

(9)

128'"

............ bIe

".

"

CorpoIIlIe

Bor1cIs al'ld A Rated PlJtJIIClJtiIIty Bl:JldS

".

(5)

7.2

...~

8.

111

PmepecIJw Y"1I!ld on:


.... RBIecI Corpnte BorG (11)

7.1

..

04

(101

136 '"
to lhe Yeel 2001

7.1

..

10 RII'lec:t Yield s~:


eet-I,. Rated CorI:o*

AdiUllJ'Tlet'C

"

BondI

M1d A ~

"

AI:lptMl ~
A RII!ed Putllic

18.

~
R:lIbng

".

AdjuRed

20.

Equity R.

...

lIMy

Q.1l (12)

7.7

77

Ben:!
Prtrcy Group

Q.1 (13)

Q.1 (141)

Bend Yield

7.8

7.8

(6)

'.0

'.8

Yeld OIl.

l..aIIy 8cln:Is

to ReIItct
ol

PrtlIpeQNe
Pmnun

RISk PnImlI.m DerlYed Cornrror1


Equll:'f ColI RiIte

See page 2 lor rdftI

BoncII

o fJ (17)

PWIi;:

128

'"

137

'"

Docket No. P-03-4

Exhibit FJH-9
Page 2 of 9

Nols
Nolll$:

(1) The

prolI!1

-Risk PnImium McdeI


ID SUmm!rr d Cme+,,,Z

group of Itlree gas. pipelin. compllniM. was comprised 01lour gas pipeline companies in the _1y5is applicable 102001 ard 2002
HarNey's difect te5tirnooy.

liIZIo

u:JW~nod in Mr.

(2) A...-raoe forei::aSr"'b.sed upon lob: quarterty Mtim:Iles of AfIII r.1l6d senoned corpcnte bondt. and A IiIlBd 5eQsoned public utiIiIy borld5 pili' the CQl'ISiIIRSU5
01 apprcndrtllrletyo 50 eo:nomim reported in Blue Chip F"nanci9l Forecasls dated August 1.2003 <see jlIIge , d Wor1qlaper No. 1 10 Emibil FJH-9). The

Mtimales we detailed below:

.........

Coroo!all!l
Third
Fourth
Fi~

au.ner

Bonds

2003

0u811ef

5.S "5.
5.
50

:zooo

...,,

OuIiIIl1er 2003

Second CulII1'" 2003


Third OuIiIInw 2004
Foul1h ~r1er

2llOll

'--

(3)

5.9 ..

The ---vey;.id spned of A I"lIted public utility bonds


E.d'rIbtlF~I1).

(-4) Tvo-third:t.
0.187 ....
group.

Jie'd ....

01 the -.

01 Baa ~
in ortI8I' 10 refIecIlhe

rounded ID 0.2")

CI'I'III' AlIg

A ~
lMlrage

rated lXlfJlOI1Ml bonds 011.0''', rcunded to 1.0'lI0 (tram pIgIIl

ofWortcpaper

No.

21D

public utiIitJ bon:I501 0.28'110 (In:m page 2 ofWortq.per


No. 2 to Exhlbll F..JH-8) (2/3x
0.28%
MoocI'(II bond rating (tn:m pIilg8 1 01 WOI1cpaper No. 310 Exhibll FJH-9) of lhe prexy

a-,

(5)

One and one-siJ;th d the ~


rIlJl1 cpread CJlBaa mer A nlted public utility bonds: 01O.2.!~ ltrom P8Q6 2 at WOl1q:J8p6f No. 2 to EJltribif FJH.9') ( 1 1011'
I( 0.28"'
O.327.... lUlII'ICIed 100.3") in order to nrnect the __ ge Baa3/ "-1 hbxIy's bond rating (tram page 1 ol'WOfIq:IlIperNo. 310 Exhibil FJH-9) of
the prexy group.

(6)

From peg. 3 of Ih. ExhIbl..

.,...,cu:iI.laIel,

(7) Awrage"1tncast
based I,ijXIJlIIir quarter1y ~
of kIa liIled ~
~
bon:a per the consenaus. d
in 81_ Chip Financial forec::ntl dIIIed .... 1M.IlIlY 1, 2002 (see page 2 of WtlI'1qllIper No. 1 10 ExhibII FJH-S). The eslimld_

at1l

SO IiCIDhOfI1Sls reported
dela11ed below:

AMaRlded
Corpon!.le Bond.

6.S!'Il.

FII"5l Cluar1er 2002


Third CUllr1er 2002
Second Ou8rler;;:OO2
F ourlh Quar1er 2OD2
First CluMJ1IN 2003
Second Ou8rter 2003
A __

7.'
71
7.3

7.0 ~
(8)

The -.
yield
EJehlbtl FJH-8).

(9)

T~

d of AnIleli

public lIIi1i1y bonds OWl "-

nIled

~e

bondaofC.71'11o,lOlJndedto

C.7% (fmm PB~ 2 ofWortpIIper

No. 210

of INi -voe yiIrId IIpAlIMl of a- 0'I'8r A ratlld public utIIiIy banda of 0.35% (from page 2 r:l WOfIlpIper
He. 2 to EJ:hIbII F.JH.8) (2/3 J. C.35%
IOlJndIId 10 C.2'IIo) in ortt.-Io niIect the ID&Umed IIWW1IptI Ba81 Moody's bond .-.linG lfrom p.ge 2 of Wonp.per
No. 310 EmibII FJH..i) of the

............
C.233%

yiIIIcI "I"-.d of 8M.,.... A AIMdpublic utiIilJ~ of C.35'11o(InJm.-ge 2 dW~


No. 210E:dlibI ~
rwIIM:I the.-.ge 8M2 Moody'. bond I1IIInG (l1tlII1 ~
2 Ii" WDfkp8pW No. 310 ElIfJibIt FJH-e) of I.... proxy group.

l'OUAded 10C..... ) in .....

(10) TIw ~

upon" dIIlecI

f1') A~.

forw.:nl t.Md
....Blue Chip FinlmdItl For __

q~

tIIitirn&I-. 01A.a 1'IIIIld.-orllld c:orponn bondI; per the oor.-.- cI ~eIr


1,2001 (_ r-ge 3 of Workp8per No. 1 to EJMJII FJH-8). n- _~.,.

JMugry

50 eolIl'IOl'IIiII
0ItalIed

1Q.

repcrSecI

bMoIr;

_Rat ..

"...

QulwIer

""""""" ......
72 ..
7.1
7.1

2001

Sor;:Q'Jlll'Jullrter 2OtI:l
Third Quarter 2001
Fourth Cllataw 2001

7.'
7.1
71

FrrsI Ou&rter 2002


_
"""""
2002

'--

7.1 '110

(12)

The -.ge yMlId IIpfBlld of A mted putJllc utI1i1ybond&


EllhH F.i-8).

(13)

OM-hall of the -.
yieIcI ~
dBa
CMIII
A nIIecI public utility Ilond& olO.13'11o (from pege 3 oIWorir:paper No. 210 Elhibl F.Ji..&) (1/2
0.065, roundecllo 0.1'1l.) in on:II!IIr 10 reflllld the.'tIenge AJ/ e..&1 Mood(a bond rllIing (trom p8gIt 3 cI WorIq:Japer No. 3 to Exhibit f..H-9) dthe

0'IIeIf '-

......

ralild

corporate bcIrwa d 0.62'110, rounded

10 O.n.

(from

pege 3 of Wor'ql8per

No. 2

to

x 0.13'110

II'

pro:ly

('.4) T'l'IIIO-Ihird& at the -.ge


yield spr.-l
ol a- I:Nm A I1Itlld public utility bonda of 0.13'110 (from page.4 of Wor1Iperpw No. 2 to EltIibit FJH-9) (213 x C.13'11o
O.OB7,l1lUnOed to 0.''''') in Older to IllI\ed the _~
Moody'a bond I'IIIing (from pege.4 of Workpaper No. 310 Eldllbll F..Jt-t-i) of lhe pn:ay grwp.
II'

e-,

Docket No. P-D3-4


Exhibit FJH-9

Page 3 of 9

Judgment

of Equity Risk Premium

for Use in the

Risk Premium Model

Proxy Group
of Five Oil

Une
No.

Pipeline
Companies

Proxy Group
of Three Gas
Pipeline
Companies

(1)

Going Forward Based Upon AUgU5t 2003

1.

Calculated

equity risk

premium based on the


total market using
the beta approach (2)
2.

5.3 D.4

6.1 %

3.4

3.4

4..4 %

4.8 %

Mean equity risk premium

based on a study
using the holding period
returns of public utilities
Vt'ith A rated bonds (3)
3.

Average

equity risk premium

Applicable for the Year 2002


Calculated equity risk
premium based on the

4.

lotal market

using

the beta approach

5.

(4)

5.1 %

6.2 %

4.7

4.7

4.9 %

5.5 %

Mean equity risk premium

based on a study
using the holding
returns

period

of public utilrties

with A rated bonds (5)


Average equity risk premium

6.

ApFbIje
Calculated equity risk
premium based on the
total market using
the beta approach (6)

5.9 %

7.7

8.

Mean equity risk premium


based on a study
using the holcing period
returns 01 public utilities
with A rated bonds (7)

4.1

4.1

9.

Average equity risk premium

5.0 %

5.9 %

7.

Notes:

for the Year 2001

(1) The proxy group of three gas pipeline companies was comprised of fOUT gas pipeline companies in the
anatysis applicable to 2001 and 2002 as exp6ained in Mr. Hanley's dired testimony.
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)

From
From
From
From
From
From

page 4 of this
page 7 of this
page 5 01this
page 8 of this
page 6 of this
page 9 of this

Exhibit.
ExhibCl
Extliat.
Exhibit
Exhibit.
Exhibit.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit

FJH-9

Page 4 of 9

Derivation of Equity Risk Premium Going Forward Based Upon August 2003
Based Upon the Total Market Approach

the Proxy Group of Five Oil Pipeline Companies and the


Proxy Group of Three Gas Pipeline Companies
Line

Proxy Group of Five Oil

Proxy Group of Three Gas

No.

Pipeline Companies

Pipeline Companies

12.2 %

12.2 %

(6.2)

(6.2)

Arithmetic mean total return rate on


the Standard & Poo(s 500 Composite

1.

Index - 1926-2002

(1)

Arithmetic mean total return rate on


the Salomon Brothers Long-Term

2.

High-Grade Corporate
1926-2002 (1)

Bond Index

3.

Historical Equity Risk Premium

4.

Forecasted 3-5 year Total Annual


Market Retum (2)

5.

Prospective Yield an Aaa Rated


Corporete Bonds (3)

6.

Forecasted Equity Risk Premium

7.

Average of Historical and Forecasted


Equity Risk Premium

Adjusted Value Une Bela (5)

9.

Bela Adjusted

Notes:

(1)

6.0 %

16.9 %

16.9 %

(5.9)

(4)

8.

6.0 %

(5.9)

11.0 %

11.0 %

8.5 %

8.5 %

0.62

0.72

5.3 %

Equity Risk Premium

6.1 %

From Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation - Valuation Edition 2003 Yearbook - Market Results for f926-2002
Ibbotson Associates,lnc.,
Chicago,ll,
2003 See Workpaper No. 4101:xhiblt FJH-9.

(2)

From Note 1, page 5 of Exhibit FJH-l0.

(3)

Average forecast based upon six quarter1y estimates of Aaa rated corporate bonds per the consensus of
approximately
of Workpaper

50 economisls reported
NO.1 to Exhibit FJH-9).

in Blue Chip Financial "Forecasts dated August


The estimates are delaned below:

1,2003

5.5 %

Third Quarter 2003


Fourth Quarter 2003
First Quarter 2004
Second Quarter 2004
Third Quarter 2004
Fourth Quartar 2004

5.6
5.8
5.9
6.1
62

Average

5.9 %

(4)

Average of the Historical Equity Risk Premium of 6.0% from Une No.3 and the Forecasled
Equity Risk Premium of 11.0% from Una No.6 6.0% + 11.0%) /2 = 8.5%).

(5)

From page 2 of ExhibHJH-l0.

(see page 1

Docket No. P-034


Exhibit FJH-9
Page 5 of 9

Derivation

01 Equity Risk Premium Applicable 10 the Vear 2002


Based Upon the Total Market Approach
the Proxy Group of Five Oil Pipeline Companies and the

Proxy Group of Four Gas Pipeline Companies


Proxy Group of Five Oil
Pipeline Companies

Une
No.

1.

Arithmetic mean total return rate on


the Standard & Poo(s 500 Compostte
Index - 1926-2000

(1)

13.0 %

13.0 %

(6.0)

(6.0)

Arithmetic mean total return rate on

2.

the Salomon Brothers Long-Term


High-Grade Corporate Bond Index
1926-2000 (1)

3.

Histoncal Equity Risk Premium

4.

Forecasted 3-5 year Total Annual


Market Return (2)

7.0 %

7.0 %

16.3 %

16.3 %

(7.0)

(7.0)

Prospective Yield an Asa Rated

5.

Corporate

Bands (3)

6.

Forecasted Equity Risk Premium

7.

Average of Historical and Forecasted


Equity Risk Premium

(4)

8.

Adjusted Value Una Beta (5)

9.

Bela Adjusted Equity Risk Premium

Notes:

Proxy Group of Four Gas


Pipeline Companies

9.3 %

9.3 %

8.2 %

8.2 %
0.75

0.62

6.2 %

5.1 %

(1)

From stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation - ValuBtion Edition 2001 Vearbook - Market Results for 1926-2000
Ibbolson Associates, Inc., Chicago, IL, 2001 See Workpaper No. 510 Exhibit FJH-9.

(2)

From Note 7, pages

(3)

Average forecast based upon six quarterly estimates of Me rated corporate bonds per the consensus of

5 and 6

ofExl1ibit

FJH-l0.

approximately 50 economists reported in Blue Chip Financial Forecasts dated January


2 of Workpaper No.1 to Exhibit FJH-9). The estimates are detailed below:
First Quartar 2002
Second Quarter 2002
Third Quarter 2002
Fourth Quarter 2002
First Quarter 2003

1,2002

6.9 %

6.9
6.9

Second Quarter 2003

7.0
7.2
7.3

Average

7.0 %

(4)

Average of the Historical Equity Risk Premium of 7.0% from Une No.3 and the Forecasted
Equity Risk Premium of 9.3% from Line No.6 (7.0% + 9.3%) /2 = 8.15%, rounded to 8.2%) .

(5)

From page 3 of Exhibit FJH-10.

(see page

Docket No. P-03-4

Exhibit

FJH-9

Page 6 of 9

Derivation

of Equity Risk Premium Applicable

to the Year 2001

Based Upon the Total Mar1<et Approach

the Proxy Group of Five Oil Pipeline Companies and the


Proxy Group of Four Gas Pipeline Companies
Une

Proxy Group of Five Oil

No.

Pipeline Companies

Proxy Group of Four Gas


Pipeline Companies

13.3 %

13.3 %

(5.9)

(5.9)

Arithmetic mean Iota I return rate on


the Standard & Poo(s 500 Composite

1.

Index -1926-1999

(1)

Arithmetic mean total return rate on


the Salomon Brothers Long- T enn

2.

High-Grada Corporate
1926-1999 (1)

3.

Historical Equity Risk Premium

4.

Forecasted 3-5 year Total Annual


Mar1<et Retum (2)

Corporate

Bonds (3)

6.

Forecasted Equity Risk Premium

7.

Average of Historical and Forecasted


Equity Risk Premium

(4)

8.

Adjusted Value Une Beta (5)

9.

Beta Adjusted

Notes:

7.4 %

7.4 %

19.2 %

192 %

(7.1)

(7.1)

12.1 %

12.1 %

9.8 %

9.8 %

Prospective Yield an Aaa Rated

5.

(1)

0.60

0.79

5.9 %

Equity Risk Premium

7.7 %

From Slocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation - 2000 Yearbook - Mar1<et Results for 1926-19991_n
Associates, Inc .. Chicago, Il, 2000 See Workpaper No.6 to Exhibit FJH-9.

(2)

From Note 12, page 6 of Exhibit FJH-10.

(3)

Average forecast based upon six quaTter1y estimates of Aaa rated corporate bonds per the consensus of
approximately 50 economists reported in Blue Chip Financial Forecasts dated January 1, 2001 (see page
3 of Workpaper

Bond Index

NO.1 to Exhibit FJH-9).

The estimates

are detailed

below;

First Quarter 2001


Second Quarter 2001
Third Quarter 2001
Fourth Quarter 2001
First Quarter 2002
Second Quarter 2002

7.2 %
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.2

Average

7.1 %

(4)

Average of the Historical Equity Risk Premium of 7.7% from Une NO.3 and the Forecasted
Equity Risk Premium of 12.1% from Una NO.6 7.7% + 12.1%) /2 = 9.9%) .

(5)

From page 4 of Exhibit FJH-10.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit
FJH-9
Page 7 of 9

Derivation of Mean Equity Risk Premium Going Forward Based Upon August 2003
Based Upon a Studv Using Holding Period Returns of Public Utilities

Over Baa Rated


Public Utility Bonds
AUS Consultants Utility Services
Study (1)

Une
No.

Time Period

19282002

1.

Arithmetic Mean Holding Period


Returns (2):
Standard & Poo(s Public
Utility Index

2.

Salomon Brothers Long-Term


High-Grade Corporate Bond Index

3.

Equity Risk Premium

4.

Adjustment to reflect yield spread


between Baa rated public utility
bonds and bonds used in the study

10.6 %

4.4

!1m
5.

Noles:

Adjusted Equity Risk Premium

MOJo

(1)

S&P Public Utility Index and Long-Term Corporate Bonds (Salomon


Brothers Long-Term HigtK>rade Corporate Bond Index year-by-year total
returns 1928-2002 AUS Consultants - Utility Services, 2003. See page 1 of
Wor1<paper No ..7 to Exhibit FJH-9.

(2)

Holding period returns are calculated based upon income received


(dividends and interest) plus the relative change in the mar1<etvalue of a
security over a one-year holding period.

(3)

Spread calculated as the difference in the arithmetic mean yields on Baa


rated public utility bonds of 7.16% and Aaa and Aa rated corporate bonds
of 6.16% used as a proxy for the Salomon Brothers Long-Term High-Grade
Corporate Bond Index forthe years 1928-2002 inclusive, 1.00%, rounded to
1.0%. See page 2 of Wor1<paper No. 7to Exhibit FJH-9.

(3)

Docket No. P-034


Exhibit
FJH-9
Page 8 of 9

Derivation of Mean Equity Risk Premium Applicable to the Year 2002


Based Upon a Study Using Holding Period Retums of Public Utilities

Over Baa Rated


Public Utility Bonds
AUS Consultants Utility Services
Study (1)

Line
No.

Time Period

1928-2000

1.

Arithmetic Mean Holding Period


Retums (2):
Standard & Poo~s Public
Utility Index

2.

Salomon Brothers Long-Term


High-Grade Corporate Bond Index

3.

Equity Risk Premium

4.

Adjustment to reflect yield spread


between Baa rated public utility
bonds and bonds used in the study

11.7 %

5.7

fLQ}
Adjusted Equity Risk Premium

5.

Notes:

U%

(1)

S&P Public Utility Index and Long-Term Corporate Bonds (Salomon


Brothers Long-Term High-Grade Corporate Bond Index year-by-year total
retums 1928-2000 AUS Consultants - Utility Services, 2001. See page 3 of
Worl<paper No.7 to Exhibit FJI-I-9.

(2)

Holding period retums are calculated based upon income received


(dividends and interest) plus the relative change in the marl<et value of a
security over a one-year holding period.

(3)

Spread calculated as the difference in the arithmetic mean yields on Baa


rated public utility bonds of 7.13% and Aaa and Aa rated corporate bonds
of 6.14% used as a proxy for the Salomon Brothers Long-Term High-Grade
Corporate Bond Index for the years 1928-2001 inclusive, 0.99%, rounded to
1.0%. See page 4 of Worl<paper No. 7to Exhibit FJH-9 .

(3)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit
FJH-9
Page 9 of 9

Derivalion of Mean Equity Risk Premium Applicable to the Year 2001


Based Upon a Study Using Holding Period Retums of Public Utilities

Over Saa Rated


Public Utility Bonds
AUS Consultants Utility Services
Study (1)

Line
No.

Time Period

1928-1999

1.

Arithmetic Mean Holdin9 Period


Retums (2):
Standard & Poo(s Public
Utility Index

2.

Salomon Brothers Long-Term


High-Grade Corporate Bond Index

3.

Equity Risk Premium

4.

Adjustment to reflect yield spread


between Baa rated public utility
bonds and bonds used in the stUdy

11.0 %

5.1

I..1Jll
Adjusted Equily Risk Premium

5.

Noles:

U%

(1)

S&P Public Utility Index and Long-Term Corporate Bonds (salomon


Brothers Long-Term High-Grade Corporate Bond Index year-by-year total
returns 1928-1999 AUS Consullants - Utility Services, 2000 See page 5 of
Workpaper No.7 to Exhibit FJH-9.

(2)

Holding period returns are calculated based upon income received


(diVidends and interest) piUS the relative change in the market value of a
security over a one-year holding period.

(3)

Spread calculated as the difference in the arithmetic mean yields on Baa


rated public utility bonds of 7.12% and Asa and Aa rated corporate bonds
of 6.12% used as a proxy for the Salomon Brothers Long-Term High-Grade
Corporate Bond Index for the years 1928-2001 inclusive, 1.00%, rounded to
1.0%. See page 6 of Workpaper No.7 to Exhibit FJH-9 .

(3)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-10

Page 1 of 7

Capital Asset Pricing Model


Summary of Conclusion

Proxy Group of
rIVe Oil
Pipeline
Companies

Line

Going Forward

Proxy Group of
Three Gas
Pipeline
Companies (1)

Based Upon August 2003

Capital Asset Pricing Model

1.

Traditional (2)

10.9

2.

Empirical (2)

11.7

3.

12.4

Traditional and Empirical


CapMI Assel Pricing Model
Equity Cost Rate

11.3

Traditional (4)

11.4

6.

Empirical (4)

12.3

Average

Traditional

8.

12.6

'%

13.2

and Empirical

CapMI Asset Pricing Model


Derived Common

to the Year 2002

Capital Asset Pricing Model

5.

12.1

12.4 %

11.7 %

Conclusion (3)

Applicable

7.

Average

Derived Common

4.

11.7

Equity Cost Rate

11.9

12.3 %

Conclusion (3)

12.9

132 %

Appicable to the Year 2001


Capital Asset Pricing Model

Traditional (5)

12.1

.10

Empirical (5)

13.2

11.

Average

Traditional

12.

Notes:

Common

14.2

14.8

and Empirical

CapMI Assel Pricing Model


Derived

Equity Cost Rate

Conclusion (3)

12.7

13.2 %

14.5

14.8 %

(1) The proxy group of three gas pipefine companies was comprised of four gas pipeline
companies in the analysis applicable to 2001 and 2002 as explained in Mr. Hanley's
direct. testimony.

(2) From page 2 of this Exhibit


(3) ConclU&ion based upon the Empirical
Hanley's

direct testimony.
(4) From page 3 01 this Exhib~.

(5) From page 4 of this Exhib~.

Capital Asset Pricing Model as explained

0/0

in Mr.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-10
Page 2 of 7

Indicated Common Equity Cost R* Through Use


of the Capital Asset: Pricing Model Going Forward Based Upon Augusl: 2003

Company-SpecifIC
Risk Premhn
Based on Market
Premiumd
9.1% (11

Value Line
Adj .....

IleIll

CAPM

Result

Including
Risk-Frf!e
Rete of

5.2'1.

T@djtionaICaDilaIAssetPricingMedeI(3)
Pro:q GltMJp 0( FIWI
all P1peh~ Ccmpitn6!s
Buckeye PlIIrtMB.

LP.

Enbridge Energy Partners, l.P.


Une PliInlMn. loP.
Kinde' t.bpn Energy Par1nel'$. L.P.
TEPPCO PaI1nctnl, L,P.
Kaneb Pipe

0.60
0.60
0.55
0.70
0.65

(5)
(5)

0.62

5.5 %
5.5
5.0
6.'
5.9

10.7 III.

5.7 %

10.9 %

5.9 'II
6.8
6.8

11.1 '%
12.0

6.5 %

11.7 %

10.7
10.2
11.6
11.1

Proxy Group of Three


GIIs Pipeline CornFllln_

ErrtBr'pri5e Producf5 Pal1fJet11o.L.P.


Gulf1~

Er'IefVY F18r1Jleq,. L.P. (6)

Kinder ~n.lnc.

0.65
0.75
0.75

(5)

o.n

12.0

EmPIrical C'tJital Asset Pricing Model (4)


Proxy Group of Five
Oil Pipeline Companies
Buckeye Partners. L.P.
Enbndge Energy Partners, L.P,
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P,
Kinder Morgan Energy Paltnefs, L.P.

TEPPCQ Partnef&. L.P.

0.60
0.60
0.55
0.70
0.65

6.4 %
(5)
(5)

0.62

6.'
6.0
7.1
6.7

11.6 ~
11.6

112
12.3
" .9

6.5 %

11.7 %

6.7 %
7.'
7.'

11.9 %
12.6

7.2 %

12.' %

of Tlne
Gas Pipeine Canpanies

Proxy Grtq)

EI'ltefpl8e Products Pal1rlecs. LP.


GulfTerra Energy PIIl'ttlet'5. L.P. (6)
Kinder Morgan. Inc.

0.65
0.75
0.75

o.n

See pages 51tnlugh

7 for 1'KQe.

(5)

12.6

(21

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-10
Page 3 of 7

Indic:ated Common Eql.ity Cost Rate T~


Use
of the Capital Asset Pricing Model Applicable for the Year 2002

Value Line

Company-Spacffic

CAPM Result

Risk Premium

Including

Based on Mar1o:et

Adjust8d

Bela

Premium

at

9.3%

Risk-Free
(7)

R"", of

5.6%

TrBditiare! Capital Asset Pricing ModeIl3l


Pmq Group r:l F"IW!
Oil PIpeline Cornp!nies
PartneR, LP.
Enbridge Energy Par1nerl>. L.P, (10)
Kaneb Pipe Une Pwtnen. L,P.
Kil'l9' MoIv-n EI1eJg'fP811~. L.P.
TfPPCO PIIrtners, LP.
BucMye

0.50
0.85
0.60
0.75
0.60

(9)
(9)

0.62

4.7 ~
8.0
5.6
7.0
5.8

10.3 %
, 1.6
11.2
12.6

5.8 'llo

11.4 %

7.9 'llo
5.1
5.8
9.3

13.5 %
10.7
11.2
14.9

7.0 'llo

12.6 %

11.2

Proxy Group of Four


G8$ PipelIne ComF!!ni ..

0.85
0.55
0.60
1.00

P8&o CoI'p (11)


EI PIIao EnervY P11l'lnel'. L.P.
El

Kinder Morgan. Inc.


The WllliItms eorn,.nie:s

AvO<BgO

(9)

075

Empirical Capital Asset Pricing Model (4)

Proxy Group of Five


0tI Pipelll18 Companies
Buckeye Partners, loP.
Enbridge Energy Partner&, loP. (10)
Klneb Pipe Line Partner1>, loP.

Kinder Magan Energy Partners, LP.


TEPPCO Partners, LP.

0.50
0.85
0.60
0.75
0.60

(9)
(9)

0.62

5.8 %
8.9
8.5
7.6
8.5

".4

6.7 %

12.3 IIMl

8.3 'llo
8.2
8.5
9.3

13.9 'llo
11.8

7.6'"

13.2 "

12.5
12.1

13.2
12.1

Proxy Group 01 FCU"


Gas Pipeline Companies
El Paso Corp. (11)
EI Paso Energy Partner&. L.P,

Kinder Morgan, Inc.


The WJlJiams CompRn.ie6

0.85
0.55
0.80
1.00
0.75

See _

51Mx.gh 7 fa .......

(9)

12.1

14.9

(8)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-10
Page 4 of 7

IndicatBd Common Equity Cost Ram lhrough Use


of the Capital Asset Pricing Model Applicable for the Year 2001

Ris.k Premium
Based on Market
Premium of
10.9%

Adjusted

'-

CAPMR....,

Company-Specific

Value line

(12)

Risk-FT'Be
Rat. of
5.6%

TlOIdibonai C'7!pib1.As:sel: Pricing Mod" (3)

Proxy GrtqI af F~

Comp!ni!!

Oil Pipeline

Buckeye Partnen, LP.


KlIneb Pipe Line ~rtl'lfll'1l. L,P.

Kinder Morgan Enorgy Part"","" LP.

lakehead Pipe Une Pa~.

L.P.

TEPflCO PaI1nels, L.P.

0.45
0.00
0.70
0.65
0.00

4.9 "
6.5
7.6
7.1
6.5

10.5 %
12'
13.2
12.7
121

0.60

6.5 'li

12.1 'A

0.80
0.90
0.00
0.85

8.7 %
9.8
6.5
9.3

14.3 %
15..412.1
14.9

0.711

8.6 'li

14.2 %

(1.)

('1
(1.)

PIUlY GfOI.lP 01 Four


Ga

Pipeline ComPII'\ie5

EI Paso Corp.
Enron Corp.
KInder Morgan, Inc:.
The Williams ~

Empirical Capital Asset Pricing Model (4)

Proxy Group of Five

PipelIne Companies

Buckeye Partners. L.P.

Lakehead Pipe Line Partners. L.P,

u.

Kaneb Pipe
Partners, L.P.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners. L.P.
TEPPCO Pilrtneni, L.P.

0.45
0.65

8.0
7.8
8.'
7.6

12.0 %
13.6
13.2
14.0
13.2

0.00

7.6 %

13.2 'It

0.80
0.90
0.00
0.85

9.3 'li
10.1
7.8
9.7

14.9 %
15.7
13.2
15.3

0.79

9.2 '!l>

14.8 %

o.m
0.70
0.00

6.4 %

('.1
(14)

(1.1

prory Grot.p at FlU'


Gas Pipeline Companies
EI Paso Corp.
Enl'tlF1 Ca"p.
Kinder Morgan, Inc:.
Tho Wd"",,"

see poges

Componioo

51hrough 7 lor .......

(13)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-10
Page 5 of7
Notes to the Indicated Common Equity Cost Rate Through Use
Of the Capital Asset Pricing Model

(1)

The 3-5 year average total market appreciation of71% (from !lage 1 ofWOrkpaper No. 110 Exhibil FJH-10),
produces a four-year average annual return of 14.35% 1.71 :25) - 1). When the average annual forecasted
dividend yield of 2.03% (from page 1 of Workpaper NO.1 to Exhibit FJH.10) is added, a tolal average
annual market return of 16.38%, rounded to 16.4%, (2.03% + 14.35%) is derived. The 12-month, 6-month,
3-month and spot forecasted total market return of 16.4% minus the risk-free rate of 5.2% (developed in
Note 2 below) is 11.2% (16.4% - 5.2%).
The Ibbotson Associates calculated market risk premium of 7.0% for the period 1926-2002 (from page 3 of
Workpaper No.4 to Exhibit FJH-9) results from a total market return of 12.2% less the average income
return on long-term U.S. Government Securities of 5.2% (12.2% - 5.2% = 7.0%).
The forecasted Value line market risk premium of 11.2% is then averaged with the 7.0% historical Ibbotson
Associates calculated market risk premium resulting in a 9.1 %, market premium. The 9.1% market premium
is then multiplied by the beta in column 1 of page 2 of this Exhibit.

(2)

Average forecast based upon six quarterly estimates of long-term Treasury Bond yields per the consensus
of approximately 50 economists reported in the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts dated August 1, 2003 (see
page 1 of Workpaper NO.1 to Exhibit FJH-9). The estimates are detailed below:

Third Quarter 2003


Fourth Quarter 2003
First Quarter 2004
Second Quarter 2004
Third Quarter 2004
Fourth Quarter 2004
Average
(3)

The traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is applied using the following formula:

Rs = RF + 13 (RM
Where

(4)

RFl

Rs = Return rate of common stock


RF = Risk Free Rate
13 = Value line Adjusted Beta
RM = Return on the market as a whole

The empirical CAPM is applied using the following formula:

Rs = RF + .25
Where

Treasury Bond Yield


Long-Term
4.9%
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.5
52%

(RM

RF ) + .7513 (RM

R.)

Rs = Return rate of common stock


RF Risk-Free Rate
13 Value line Adjusted Beta
RM = Return on the market as a whole

=
=

(5)

Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P., Kaneb Pipe line Partners, L.P., and GulfTerra Energy Partners, L.P. are
not covered by Value line Investment Survey in its Standard Edition. However, these rompanies are
contained in the proprietary database purchased by AUS Consultants from Value line Inc. and utilized in
Mr. Hanley's application of the Comparable Earnings Model. The betas used for these companies by Mr.
Hanley in his application of the Capital Asset Pricing Model are from this proprietary database.

(6)

Formerly EI Paso Energy Partners, L.P.

(7)

The 3-5 year average total market appreciation of 60% (from !l~ge 1 of Workpaper NO.3 to Exhibit FJH-1 0),
produces a four-year average annual return of 14.35% ((1.60" ) - 1). When the average annualforecasted
dividend yield of 1.90% (tram page 1 of Workpaper NO.2 to Exhibit FJH-10) is added, a lotal average

Docket No. P-03--4


Exhibit FJH10
Page 6 of 7
Notes to the Indicated Common Equity ..Cost Rate Through Use
Of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
annual market return of 16.25%, rounded to 16.3%, (1.90% + 14.35%) is derived. The 12-month, 6-month,
3-month and spot forecasted total market return of 16.3% minus the risk-free rate of 5.6% (developed in
Note 11 below) is 10.7% (16.3% - 5.6%).
The Ibbotson Associates calculated market risk premium of 7.8% for the period 1926-2000 (from page 3 of
Workpaper NO.5 to Exhibit FJH-9) results from a total market relurn of 13.0% less the average income
return on long-term U.S. Government Securities of 5.2% (13.0% - 5.2%
7.8%).

The forecasted Value Line market risk premium of 10.7% is Ihen averaged with the 7.8% historical Ibbotson
Associates calculated market risk premium resulting in a 9.25%, rounded to 9.3%, market premium. The
9.3% market premium is then multiplied by the beta in column 1 of page 4 of this Exhibit.
(8)

Average forecast based upon six quarterly estimates of 3D-year Treasury Bond yields per the consensus of
approximately 50 economists reported in the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts dated January 1, 2002 (see
page 2 of Workpaper No. 1 to Exhibit FJH-9). The estimates are detailed below:

First Quarter 2002


Second Quarter 2002
Third Quarter 2002
Fourth Quarter 2002
First Quarter 2003
Second Quarter 2003
Average

Treasury Bond Yield


3D-Year
5.3%
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.9
56%

(9)

Enbridge Energy
covered by Value
in the proprietary
application of the
application of the

Partners, L.P., Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P., and EI Paso Energy Partners, L.P. are not
Line Investment Survey in its Standard Edition. However, these companies are contained
database purchased by AUS Consultants from Value Line Inc. and utilized in Mr. Hanley's
Comparable Earnings Model. The betas used for these companies by Mr. Hanley in his
Capital Asset Pricing Model are from this proprietary database.

(10)

Fonmerly Lakehead Pipe Line Partners, L.P.

(11 )

Fonmerly EI Paso Energy Corp.

(12)

The 3-5 year average total market appreciation of 70% (from Rage 1 of Workpaper NO.4 to Exhibit FJH-l0),
produces a four-year average annual return of 16.94% 1.70:25) - 1). When the average annual forecasted
dividend yield of 2.22% (from page 1 of Workpaper No.3 to Exhibit FJH-l0) is added, a total average
annual market retum of 19.16%, rounded to 19.2%, (2.22'10 + 19.16%) is derived. The 12-month, 6-month,
3-month and spot forecasted total market return of 19.6% minus the risk-free rate of 5.6% (developed in
Note 15 below) is 6.4% (12.9%6.5%).
The Ibbotson Associates calculated market risk premium of 8.1 % for the period 1926-1999 (from page 3 of
Workpaper NO.6 to Exhibit FJH-9) results from a total market return of 13.3% less the average income
return on long-tenm U.S. Government Securities of 5.2% (13.3% - 5.2%
8.1%).

The forecasted Value Line market risk premium of 13.6% is then averaged with the 8.1% historical Ibbotson
Associates calculated market risk premium resulting in alD. 85%, rounded to 10.9%, market premium. The
10.9% market premium is then multiplied by the beta in column 1 of page 5 of this Exhibit.

(13)

Average forecast based upon six quarterly estimates of 3D-year Treasury Bond yields per the consensus of
approximately 50 economists reported in the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts dated January 1, 2001 (see
page 4 of Workpaper NO.1 to Exhibit FJH-9). The estimates are detailed below:
Treasury Bond Yield
3D-Year

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-10
Page 7 of 7
Noles to the Indicated Common Equity Cost Rate Through Use
Of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
First Quarter 2001
Second Quarter 2001
Third Quarter 2001
Fourth Quarter 2001
First Quarter 2002
Second Quarter 2002
Average
(14)

5.5%
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6

5.7

.5..6

Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P., Lakehead Pipe Line Partners, L.P., and TEPPCO Partner, L.P. are not
covered by Value Line Investment Survey in its Standard Edition. However, these companies are contained
in the proprietary database purchased by AUS Consultants from Value Line Inc. and utilized in Mr. Hanley's
application of the Comparable Eamings Model. The betas used for these companies by Mr. Hanley in his
application of the Capital Asset Pricing Model are from this proprietary database.

Source of Information:

Value Line Summarv & Index


Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, January 1, 2001, 2002 and August 1, 2003
Value Line Investment Survey, December 22, 2000, December 15, 2000
December 21, 2001, December 14, 2001, June 20, 2003 and June 13, 2003
Proprietary Database, Value Line, Inc., January 1, 2001, December 14, 2001
and June 16, 2003
Stocks Bonds, Bills and Inflation - 2000 Yearbook Market
Results for 1926-1999 Ibbotson Associates, Inc., Chicago, IL
Stocks. Bonds. Bills and Inflation
Valuation Edition 2001 Yearbook Market
Results for 1926-2000 Ibbotson Associates, Inc., Chicago, IL
Stocks. Bonds, Bills and Inflation
Valuation Edition 2003 Yearbook Market
Results for 1926-2002 Ibbotson Associates, Inc., Chicago, IL

DocketNo. P~3-4
Exhibit FJH-11
Page 1 of 12

Comparable Earnings Model


Summary

of Conduston

Wne
Proxy Group 01Five

on

Proxy Group of llvee


Gas Pipeline Companies

Pipeline Companies

No.

(1)

Going FOlW3rd Based Upon August 2003

1.

Comparable

Earnings Model

Indicated Common Equity Cost Rate

~~.g12;;:.8~ % (2)

=~12~.5~

%(3)

Applicable to lhe Year 2002

2.

Comparable Earnings Model


Indicated Common Eqlity Cost Rate

===13;,;.5;", % (4)

Appicable

10 lhe Year 2001

Comparable Earnings Model

3.

Indicated Common Equity Cost Rate

Notes:

===13;,;.3;", % (5)

==~11:.l-8~

% (6)

=~1",,4.5~

% (7)

(1) The proxy group 01Ihree gas pipeline companies was comprised 0110..-gas pipeline companies
in lhe analysis applicable to lhe years 2001, 2002, and 2003 as explained in Mr. lianley's dired
lestimony.

01this
01this
01this
01this
(6) From page 4 01this
(7) From page 9 01this
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)

From
From
From
From

page
page
page
page

2
5
3
7

Exhibit.
Exhibit.
Exhibit.
Exhibit.
Exhibit.
Exhibit.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 2 of 12

Comparable Earnings Model Going Forward Based Upon August 2003


fOT a Proxy Group of Fourteen Non-Utifty Companies Comparable to
the Proxy Group of rIVe Oil Pipeline Companies (1)

Proxy Group of Fourteen Non-Utility


Companies Comparable to the Proxy Group
01 FAte Dij Pipeline Compames (1)
Alberto Culver 'B'
BRE Properties

Capitol Fed. FII'l'


Health Care Property

Heahhcare R'Ity Trust

HorrnelFoods
Old Nat1 Banc:orp
Pem. R.E.I.T.
Plum Creek TImber
Prologi5
Simon Property

Group

Tootsie RoD Ind.


Trisrc Coso 'A'
Weis Markets

Adj.
Beta
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.55
0.65
0.60
0.65
0.65
0.70
0.65
0.70
0.65
0.70
0.65

Unadj.

Residual
Standard

Beta

Error

0.49
0.53
0.48
0.31
0.39
0.32
0.43
0.43
0.47
0.46
O.Sl
0.42
0.50
0.45

A..... ge tor the Non-Uti/ity Grol4l

0.66

0.44

Average for the Prole)' Group of Five 01 Pipeline


Companies

0.62

0.38

Average

5-Year Projected
Rate of Return on Net
W01lh. Equity Of
Partners' Capital 12;1
Percent

3.2166
2.9877
2.8639
2.9009
3.1510
3.1973
2.9661
2.8578
3.1723
2.9927
2.9700
3.3035
3.1240
3.2539

1S.S
11.0
14,0
10.5
11.0
17.5
14.0
16.0
15.5
13.5
10.0
12.0
12.0
10.5

"

3.0664

(3)

3.0469

(4)

- A1l Companies.

Median - AD Companies
Average - Excluding Highest & Lowest
10% (1 Company ."""1

Conclusion (5)

See pages 10 'through 1210r notes.

lU

%(5)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 3 of 12

Comparable Earnings Model Amliryoble to the Year 2002


for a Proxy Group of Eleven Non-Uliity Companies Comparable to
the Prexy Group of FIVe Oil Pipeline Companies (6)
5-Year Projed:ed Rate
ot Retum on Net
W<>th. Equity Of
Proxy Groop 01 Eleven Non-UtiTily
Companies Comparable to the> Proxy GlOl.lP
of Five Oil Pip!!ine

ComF-nies

Rosidual

Aq.
Beta

(6)

AwbnBay Communities
BRE Properties
Chemed Corp.
New F'tan Excel R'tty
Old
Nan_
Penn. R.E.I.T.

0.65
0.65
0.55
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.55

Rouse Co.
Simon P"","", Group
Toctaie Roll Incl.

w.;s_
west

Pha~.

SYC8.

Average for the Non-UtKity Group

Average

Unadj.
Beta

Partners' C!piIaI

..Em>'

P..-

0"2

2.6953

11.5 "

D...

3.0425

11.5

0.28
0.41
0.33
0.28
0.49
0.50
0.47
0.35
0.26

3.1167
3.1052
2.6539
2.7354
2.eaao
2.9352
3.lXl'I6
2.72<42
2.9737

0.63

0.36

2.6977

0.60

0.35 (6)

2.8966

10.5
11.0

14.0
18.0
16.5
13.5
13.5
11.0
13.5

tor the Prexy Group of Fiw Oil Pipellne

c.moan;os

Average

(9)

All Companies

Median - All Compeniea


Average - Exduding Highat

& l.aNesf

l~(lCompsnr~)

~(S)

Seepages

1 0 ttwcugil12 "'".-

W"'(S)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 4 of 12

Comparable Earnings MOdel App!ic:abIe to the Year 2001


for a Ptr::1X'JGroup of Eight Non-Utility Corr1panIeI ~
the Proxy Group of Five Oil Ptoe!ine Companies (10)

to

5-Year Pro;ected Rate


of Return on Net
WOI1tl, EqlMty or
Proxy G.... p of E;gt"< Non-Utility
Companies Comp!!lrable to the Proxy Group
of FIVe O~ Pipeline Companies (10)
BREP_

C_

CCIp.

New Plan EJa:;d R'1ty


Old Nan BaI"lCQl'p
Simon Property Group
TootBie RoIllnct
Weis Markets
Wes. Pharm8c. S'IC&,

Adj.
Beta
0.65
0.55
0.65
0.60
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.55

Residual
Standard

Pel'blers' Capital (11)

Unadj.

Beta

Emr

Peroent

0.44
0.26
0.41

0.33
0.50
0.47
0.35
0.26

3.0425
3.1167
3.1052
2.6539
2.9352

11.0 "
10.5
12.0
15.0
11.5
15.5
9.0
12.0

3.004S
2.7242
2.9737

Avterage for the Non-Utility Group

0.63

0.38

2.9445

for the Proxy Group or FIVe Oil PipelIne


Compenies

0.60

0.35 (12)

2.8986

Average

Average

(13)

Excluding Highesl & Lowest

1~(1~ny~)

CllIll:lu5ial (5)

See pega 10ttrough 12 for notes.

ll.D

"(5)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 5 of 12

ComparabiII

billings Model AppMc:abIe in ""..

20m

tOf Proxy Group at FdIy-Three Non-Ul'iIiIy CornplInioI, Cornp;nbfe


Ibo Prmy Grgup pi Three Gas Pjpenne Cqrnp!lllies (1C'1

Pr1lxy Group of FifI1- Three ~iJlly

c:omp.niN
pi

Com~lllIbie

lo the Pftlxy Group

ThrtMI G8I PpIine Comtl!lliM.

114)

I'dj.

....t.mon ... lnc.


A1IMld Capbl Corp.

0'"
0."

--

App("1lId Ind'i T .ehn.


A1ch Chemic811

---- .--............
Una<II.

D.71

....
....
.......
....

5.6

.6700

16.0

4.4826
4.8213
4.1'687
4.n75

".6

0.'"

D.!6

0.75
0."

0.00
DJ15
0.70
0.63
0.7$
0.67

,.21>1,

Burltngton Reaourca

0.80

Ca8y's

Gen, Sttw."'-Cup.

0.75

"""""""" ......

0".

Can"""'"""""

0.70

D'"

0.50
0.74

0J15

D."

0.52

o.rden R OOIn1s
DoonF_
0Is' Corp.
Energiz'w Holdings
Fon"'l.aI~.
Fuk (tt.B.)
GIIIl:f...

0.80

GTECH_

0.85

~ic:&Corp.

0.80

HIu1Iand (John H.)

0.75
0."
0.75

0..

0.80

0.&2
0.6'
0...
0.70
0.61
0.34

K.IIrS8o'ices
Kimbllllinfl

0.63

0.70

0'"
0.80

Inri SpsedtMly ',,'


-Cup.
Jack in the Eka.
K.1lwood Co.

0.7'"

0..

0.'"
0."

..,

0'"
0.75

'A"

......
tr

0"

lDngs Drug Slores


-Cup.
Ohio c.UIIIty
OIlonllnda.
P11P11 Jdln'slnrJ
RPM..,

0.75
0."
0.75
0."
0.75
0."
0.80

RubJTUfIIIIdIIy

0.80

R....
Ccwp.
Ryw1"F~

0."

0.75
0.75

0.80

R __

""'"

__
_
~"""'.

AIMnIp

..

...
0.73
0.41

0'"
0.'"
0.80

~
~

0.'"

......

- Ex::Iuding HigheC & I...Dwea


1m1o IS ~
e8Cb,)

8M ~

10 through 12 for naI-.

16.0

'2.6
11.6

..""

..
"
".6

5.143'
5.1142

1!U
14.0
'0.6

'.7706
,U1S;

......

5.6

15.6

5.1080
5.1330

17.5
'0.5

......

'''.0
19.0
"
..
15.6

'.6JSJ

'.7OJ<

..-

'5OOlI
4.5216
.22DS

15.6
12.0

12"
12.6

.....,
02 ...

12.0

......
.om
......
.9700

4.5700

11..
12.6
19.D
'.0
7.6

'.OJ9B

7.6
11.6

'.002Il
02107
'.TZ22

18.6

..

..."'"
""43

11.6
12.0

17.6

4.tl173

10.0
13.0

'.2220
'.7llO2
4.4807

'0"
,

5.6

0'"
0.73

'.07Ii0

0...

4..eo,0

,<5

D"

".172"
'.s>57

12.6

5.1578

".6

0'"

---!!l..

'.500,

'.2051
5.1045

'0.6

4.a:U8

....&447

A .....

11.0

, ....
".6
,,U...

0.03
0.70

0.00

N:.

1Dr tt.. NDn-UriIIy Otaup

0"

0."

S'-k n Sh.IIIt

"""'"""'"'

0'"

0.80

-Cap.

stJPSN"AW

D"

0.75

Smith ","0.)

........

0.05
0.62
0."
0."

0'"
0.05

SdnllrMr1 (A..)
Sei;Ic.' I Co.

17.6
"0

5.1200

_(W".)

HON Indu.arllslnc.

"""""
14.0 ..

0..

D.70
0.6'

0."

(.Ado4Jh) 'B'

WDJth,E~or
Par!nMs' Cerl!el

"'.5081

0.75
0.75
0.75

Coon.

........
.........

0."
D."

0.05

..,., "".

5-V .. r PnJ;cIc:'IId
~Ill aI R~
on NIit

E"'"

0.70

_W,

to

(18)

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 6 of 12

Comparable Earnings Model Appfica~e to the Year 2002


tor a Proxy Group of Sixt)'-Eight Non-Utiity Companies Comparable
the Proxy Group of Four Gas Pipeline Companies i17l

Proxy Group of SOOy-Eight Non-Utility


Companies Comparable to the ProX)' Group
01 Four Gas Pipefine Companies (17)
Albertson's Inc.

Alcoa Inc.
Allied Capital Corp.
Amer. Greetings
Ampco-PitlsbUrgh
Angetica Corp.
Applied Inen Techn.
BamesGroup
Bassett Fumiture
Bio-Rad Labs. 'A'
BISYS Group
Brush Engineered
Caraustar Incls.
Gasey's Gen1 Stores
Centex Construction
ChoicePoint Inc.
CV5Corp.
Darden Restaurants
Diagnostic Products

DoJeFood
Florida Rock
Fuller (H. B.)
Gaylord Entertainm.
G, Atlantic & Pacific
Harland (John H.)
Ha""" Corp.
Harte-Hanks
Hercules Inc.
HjJenbrand Jndl.
Holy Corp.
IHOPCorp.
Kaman Corp.
Kimballnt1'B'
Lear Corp.
Uncoln EIo< HJdgo.

Longview Fibre
Loukliana-Pacific
Marcus CoIp.
Modine Mfg.
OM Group
OxI"'d Inds.
Pall Corp.
PepsiAmeric8B

PerriQo Co.
Phelpo Dodge

Pittston Co.
Ralcorp Hokings
Regal-Belod
Rogers Corp.
Ruby Tuesd8)l
Ruddick Corp.
Russel Corp.
Ryan's FBmiy
Soloway Inc.

Inc.

Adj.

Beta
0.65
0.90
0.75
0.85
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.60
0.85
0.70
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.60
0.80
0.80

0.80
0.85
0.75
0.60
0.85
0.75
0.B5
0.75
O.BO
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.75
0.80
0.80
0.B5
0.55
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.75
0.65
0.70
0.60
0.70
0.65
O.BO

Unadj.
Beto

0.46
0.79
0.55
0.74
0.54
0.47
0.35
0.66
0.64
0.49
0.54
0.73
0.63
0.62
0.54
0.69
0.75
0.53
0.40
0.60
0.74
0.36
0.67
0.65
0.68
0.74
0.59
0.86
0.75
0.57
0.70
0.B1
0.65
0.75
0.69
0.5B
0.73
0.62
0.58
0.57
0.69
0.70
0.71
0.30
0.59
0.64
0.72
0.57
0.43
0.47
0.33
0.51
0.44
0.62

to

Residual
Standard
Error

4.2696
4.6368
4.6290
4.3918
4.6109
4.8176
4.6760
4.2781
4.7179
4.5661
4.9783
4.3953
4.6912
4.7444
4.5653
4.5194
4.9008
4.3741
4.4315
4.2368
4.3572
4.9008
4.2207
48416
4.2881
4.5123
4.2325
4.m1
4.2081
4.8432
4.4186
4.6956
4.4248
4.9453
4.5023
4.2848
4.8866
4.3877
4.2108
4.6636
4.3444
4.2512
4.6780
4.9791
4.2828
4.2961
4.6498
4.47BO
4.5026
4.4759
4.4814
4.8m

4.4999
4.6543

Percent
15.5 %

18.5
17.0
13.0
12.0
6.5
9.0
15.0
8.0
9.5
19.0
13.0
13.0
12.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
15.0
17.0
14.0
12.5
10.0
5.5
7.5
18.0
15.0
14.0
13.0
17.0
15.5
14.0
9.0
12.5
13.5
18.0
10.0
B.5
7.0
15.0
17.5
13.0
17.5
8.5
12.0
12.5
17.0
12.0
14.5
14.5
18.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
18.5

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 7 of 12

ComParable Earnings Model Applicable to the Year 2002


10r a Proxy Group of Sixty-Eight Non-Utility Companies Comparable
the Proxy Group of FOOTGas Pipeline ComPanies (17)

Proxy Group 01 Sbrt)'-Eight Non-U1ility


Companies Comparable to the Proxy Group
of Four Gas Pipeline Companies (17)
Schulman (A.)
SeqUB Corp. 'A'
Sigma-Aldrich
SpaceLabs Medical
Steak n Shake
Thor Inds.
Thornburg Mfg.
Trtarc Cos. 'A'
United Industrial Corp.
Valmont Ind6.
Vied COIlJ,
Wendf8lnt1
Wj"! (John) & So ..
Worthington Inds.
A\letage for the Non-Utiity

G,oup

Average for the Proxy Group of Four Gn


Companies

Adj.
Bela

Reoidual
Standard
ElTor

0.55
0.70
0.85
0.85
0.70
0.85
0.80
0.85
0.70
0.55
0.85
0.85
0.80
0.70

0.27
0.54
0.72
0.47
0.50
0.47
0.65
0.75
0.51
0.30
0.72
0.70
0.69
0.53

4.5129
4.7396
4.3886
4.9142
4.3813
4.8144
4.6034
4.3n4
4.5596
4.7503
4.2750
4.2287
4.3723
4.3719

0.75

0.59

4.5374

Pipeline

0.70

Ave-rage-- All Companies

Median - All Companies


Average - Exduding Highest & Lowest
, 0% CJ Companies each)

Conclusion (5)

See pages 10 lhrough 12 for noles.

Unadj.
Bela

to

0.51 (18)

4.8011 (19)

Percent

12.0
8.0
14.0
7.5
13.0
12.5
18.0
8.5
12.5
15.0
17.5
15.0
19.5
19.0

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 8 of 12

for

i!&

Canparable Eaming& Model Applicable lei the Year 2001


Proxy Group of Eighty-Nne Non-l.JtiIlI:y Companies Comparab'e to
the Proxy Group of Four Gas Pioe!ine ComPanies t'2Ol

Proxy Group 0/ Eighty-N .... Non-Ublily

to the

Proxy Group
of Four Gas Pipeline Canpanies (:20)
ComPO""

IVt

C."",.,-

ProducU & Chern.

AJ_C"'l'.
Albertsc:rI'a Inc.
Alcoa Inc.
Amer. Greetings
Ampco-PiIIBburgh
Angel"" Corp.

Sames........,
Be!;sett

FurT'Iitl..n

Bedono--...n
Bio-Rad LebB. 'A'
Block Drug 'A'
BrushEng_
BUllingtonR...,.....
Camtnx CcxJ!.
C_lnds.
C_COO.
CalleY. Gen' 5_
Centes: COIlSbuC:tion
Church & Dw;gI'<
ConocCllnc.

'A'

- Adj.

0.90
0.95
0.65
0.90
0.85
0.70
0.70
0.90
0.00
0.95
0.70
0.65
0.85
0.75

0.70

0.54

'.5653

0.65

0.'2
0.64
0.50
0.88
0.75
0.53
0.40

4.1605
. 7956

0.90

0.70

H_
H~lnc.

O.eo

HionInnd Indo.
Holy Cap.
HUlIl-Supply
1,,",,-

0.85
0.75
0.95
0.90
0.95
0.75
0.90

~M......

Corp.

Modine Mfg.
Northrop Gl'UrI'll"Ilan
ONoCauoIly
OM Group

'.6366
4.3918

0.90
0.95
0.75

0.90

O.eo
O.eo
O.eo
O.eo

-Corp.
Koydon Corp.
Kimbell'" '5'
lsrCap.
UnocIn EIoC HIdga.
lJIa1J_
~Fbe

'2696

4.8176
4.2781
4.7179
. 3863

0.65
0.75
0.65
0.85

1"'_Prod.

.
=
4.4410
'.6'09

DiBgno&tic Produds

GTECH HoIctirua
_(John H.)
H..... Corp.

0.81
0.88
0.46
0.79
0.74
0.47
0.66
064
0.87
0.49
0.40
0.73
0.58
0.64
0.63
0.85
0.62

0.70
0.95
0.85

m_&_

Capital (11)

Unadj.

0.54

Consol. Products
Cummins Inc.
CVSCap.
Darden Restaurants
Dole Food
FoddeolCorp.
Florida Rock
Goylonl En_.

5-Year Pro;ect:ed RBle of


Renm on Net Worth,
Equity or Partners'

0.85
0.75

O.eo
0.85

O.eo
0.85
0.75
0.85
0.90

0.75
0.90
0.90
0.75

4.5661

. 4638
. 3963
4.1618
4.1845
4.6912
4.2176
4.7444

4.3613

. 7ll63
. 9008
4.3741

4.4315

0.60

'.2368

0.41
0.74
0.67
0.65
0.65
0.65
0.7'
0.59
0.65
0.75
0.57
0.87
0.64
0.88
0.61

4.3n ..
. 3572
'.2207
A..8416
.... 093

O.eo

..6301
4,4246

0.65
0.75
0.58
0.71
0.58
0.73
0.62
0.58
0.59
0.58
0.57

.2881
4.5123

.=

'.n21

4.2081

'.6432
4,4739
. 3044

. 7801

'.6Il56
'.9453
'.5023

'.34Il3
.2846
. 8866

17.0 ",
15.0
'5.0
16.5
13.0
10.5
7.0
15.5
8.0

19.0
9.0
8.5
13.0

125
15.5
15.0
16.5
12.5
16.0
19.5
15.5
14.0
16.5
17.0
16.5
14.5
15.5
17.5
14.5
5.0
8.5
15.5
18.5
15.0
13.5
18.0
".0
15.5
12.0
120
10.0
9.5
17.0

".0
14.5
16.5
125
16.0
6.0

'.38n

8.0

421ce
4.1632
4.1565

'3.5
15.0
9.5

'.6636

13.5

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 9 of 12

Comparable Esmings MxJet Aooticab!e to the Year 2001


tor a Proxy Group al' Eighty-Nine Non-Utility Companies Comparable to
the Prop Group of FO/JfGas Pipeline Comoanies l2Q)

Proxy Group of E;gIrty-N'" NonI,"liy


Compenies Comparable to the Prexy Group
of F"'" GaB PipeI!ne ~
(20)
Oxford Indo.
Pa""" 5hoeSource
Penney (J.C.)
Phelps Dodge
PiIIslOr1 Co.
Praxair Inc.
Quanex
Corp.
R
__
Regal-Bebft
Regen; Co<p.

Room and Haas


RaJinsTnd<I-.,g
Ruby Tuesday
Russel Co<p.
Ryan's Family
Safewey Inc.
Sc:ottB Co. 'A'
Sequa Co<p. 'A'
Sigma-Aldrich
Specelabs Medical
Springs Inds.
T eneI Heafthcare
Thor Indo.
TO&OO Co<p.
Triarc Cos. 'A'
True NOfth

Tyson FOOds'A'
UltrIlmar Diamond

Uniled Dominion Ind.


Unitod ,_
Co<p.
USX-U.S. Steel Group
We/t.wlnda.
Wendy'a fr<1
Whitman Co<p.
W....(fw 19b, Indl.
A_

lor
the Non-UtiIiIy ~

Average for the P_

P<Ij.

0.80
0.90
0.95
0.75
0.80
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.75
0.65
0.95
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.65
0.80
0.90
0.70
0.55
0.6.5
0.55
0.90
0.65
0.95
0.55
0.95
0.90
0.65
0.90
0.70
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.85
0.70

0.69
0.81

0.90
0.59
0.64
0.88
0.80
0.12
0.57
0.43
0.91
0.66
0.41
0.51
0.44
0.62
0.54
0.54
0.72
0.47
0.75
0.54
0.47
0.91
0.75
0.89
0.80
0.46
0.81
0.51
O.fr7
0.80
0.70
0.71
0.53

Residual
Standard

E_
4.3444
4.5536
4.7300
4.2828
42951
"'.5017
4.9044
4.6496
4.4780
4.5026
".7493
4.1867
4.4759
4.8m
4.4999
4.6543
4.3247
4.7396.
4.3886
4.9142
4.3175
4,7245
4.6144
4.4738

.m4

".Ba7B
4.5397
4.5090
4.6785
4.5596
4.6653
4.6912
42257
4.6780
4.3719

0.81

0.67

4.5057

0.79

0.64 (21)

4.5474 (22)

Group aI F... Goo p.......

A_.~H~&L.,()'Il; (9Companiea_)

Conclusion (5)

see peg8S

Unadj.
Bela

10 t!Yough 12 for notes.

5-Year Profeded RBte of


Return on Net Worth,
Equity or Partners'
Capilal (11)
P......
13.5
18.0
4.0
12.0
12.0
15.5
15.0
11.0
14.5
15.0
13.5
16.0
1B.0
125
13.0
18.5
15.5
7.5
14.0
7.0
9.0
15.5
13.0
14.0
8.5
17.5
15.5
11.5
10.0
14.5
16.0
19.0
17.5
8.5
15.0

Docket No. P-97-4


Exhibit FJH11
Page 10 of 12
Notes to Comparable Earnings Model

(1)

The criteria for selection of the proxy group of fourteen non-utility companies was that the
non-utility companies be domestic, have a meaningful projected 2006 - 2008 rate of return
on net worth, shareholders' equity or partners' capital less than 20.0% as reported in Value
line Investment Survey (Standard Edition) (Value line). The proxy group of fourteen
non-utility companies applicable in August 2003 was selected from a Value Line, Inc.
proprietary database dated June 16, 2003 based upon the proxy group of five oil pipeline
companies' unadjusted beta range of 0.23 - 0.53 and residual standard error of the
regression range of 2.7791 - 3.3147. These ranges are based upon plus or minus two
standard deviations of the unadjusted beta and standard error of the regression as detailed
in Mr. Hanley's accompanying direct testimony. Although Buckeye Partners L.P. met the
selection criteria it was excluded because it is a member of the proxy group of five oil
pipeline companies. See Workpaper Nos. 1 and 4 to Exhibit FJH-11.

(2)

2006 - 2008.

(3)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies' unadjusted beta is
0.0731, applicable going forward based upon August 2003.

(4)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies' residual standard
deviation is 0.1339, going forward based upon in August 2003. The standard deviation of
the residual standard deviation is calculated as follows:
Standard Deviation of the Resid. Std.

= Residual Standard Deviation


-{2N

where: N

Thus,0.1339

number of observations. Since Value Line betas are derived from weekly price
change observations over a period of five years, N = 259

= 3.0469
-{518

3.0469
22.7596

(5)

Based upon the 5-Year Projected Median


Hanley's accompanying direct testimony.

Return - All companies as explained

in Mr.

(6)

The criteria for selection of the proxy group of eleven non-utility companies was that the
non-utility companies be domestic, have a meaningful projected 2004 2006 rate of return
on net worth, shareholders' equity or partners' capital less than 20.0% as reported in Value
line Investment Survey (Standard Edition) (Value Line). The proxy group of eleven
non-utility companies applicable to the year 2002 was selected from a Value line, Inc.
proprietary database dated December 14, 2001 based upon the proxy group of five oil
pipeline companies' unadjusted beta range of 0.18 - 0.52 and residual standard error of the
regression range of 2.6438 - 3.1534. These ranges are based upon plus or minus two
standard deviations of the unadjusted beta and standard error ofthe regression as detailed
in Mr. Hanley's accompanying direct testimony. See Workpaper Nos. 2 and 5 to Exhibit
FJH-11.

(7)

2004 - 2006.

Docket No. P-97-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 11 of 12
Notes to Comparable

Eamings Model

(8)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies' unadjusted beta is
0.0867, applicable to the year 2002.

(9)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies' residual standard
deviation is 0.1274, applicable to 2002. (2.8986 + 22.7596).

(10)

The criteria for selection of the proxy group of eight non-uti/ity companies was that the
non-utility companies be domestic, have a meaningful projected 2003 - 2005 rate of return
on net worth, shareholders' equity or partners' capital less than 20.0% as reported in Value
line Investment Survey (Standard Edition) (Value line). The proxy group of eight non-ulility
companies applicable to the year 2001 was selected from a Value line, Inc. proprietary
database dated January 1, 2001 based upon the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies'
unadjusted beta range of 0.18 - 0.52 and residual standard error of the regression range of
2.6438 - 3.1534. These ranges are based upon plus or minus two standard deviations of
the unadjusted beta and standard error of the regression as detailed in Mr. Hanley's
accompanying direct testimony. See Workpaper Nos. 3 and 6to Exhibit FJH-11.

(11)

2003 - 2005.

(12)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies' unadjusted beta is
0.0867, applicable to the year 2001.

(13)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of five oil pipeline companies' residual standard
deviation is 0.1274, applicable to the year 2001. (2.8986 + 22.7596).

(14)

The criteria for selection of the proxy group of frfly-three non-utility companies was that the
non-utility companies be domestic, have a meaningful projected 2006 - 2008 rate of retum
on net worth, shareholders' equity or partners' capital less than 20.0% as reported in Value
line Investment Survey (Standard Edition) (Value line). The proxy group of fifty-three
non-utility companies applicable in August 2003 was selected from a Value Line, Inc.
proprietary database dated June 16, 2003 based upon the proxy group of three gas pipeline
companies' unadjusted beta range of 0.30 - 0.76 and residual standard error of the
regression range of 4.4189 - 5.2705. These ranges are based upon plus or minus two
standard deviations of the unadjusted beta and standard error of the regression as detailed
in Mr. Hanley's accompanying direct testimony. See WOrKpaper Nos. 1 and 4 to Exhibit
FJH-11

(15)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of three gas pipeline companies' unadjusted beta
is 0.1165, applicable in August 2003.

(16)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of three gas pipeline companies'
standard deviation is 0.2129, applicable in August 2003. (4.8447 + 22.7596).

(17)

The criteria for selection of the proxy group of sixty-eight non-utility companies was that the
non-utilily companies be domestic, have a meaningful projected 2007 - 2006 rate of relum
on net worth, shareholders' equity or partners' capital less than 20.0% as reported in Value
Line Investment Survey (Standard Edition) (Value Line). The proxy group of sixty-eight
non-utility companies applicable to the year 2002 was selected from a Value line, Inc.
proprietary database dated December 14, 2001 based upon the proxy group of four gas

residual

Docket No. P97-4


Exhibit FJH-11
Page 12 of 12
Notes to Comparable Earnings Model
pipeline companies unadjusted beta range of 0.23 - 0.79 and residual standard error of the
regression range of 4.1967 - 5.0055. These ranges are based upon plus or minus two
standard deviations of the unadjusted beta and standard error of the regression as detailed
in Mr. Hanley's accompanying direct testimony. See Workpaper Nos. 2 and 5 to Exhibit
FJH-11.
(18)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of four gas pipeline companies' unadjusted beta
is 0.1377, applicable to the year 2002.

(19)

The standard deviation of the proxy group of four gas pipeline companies' residual standard
deviation is 0.2022, applicable to the year 2002. (4.6011 ~ 22.7596).

Source of Information:

Value Line, Inc. January 1, 2001, December 14, 2001, and June 16, 2003
Value Line Investment Survey - Standard Edition

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-12
Page 1 of 4
e-ahoo

Page I of2

- EI Paso Energy To Buy Coastal Corp.

Yahoo! Calendar
[ Business
Tuesday

I US

January

Market
18,5:29

- get your free web-based calendar

I By Industry I IPO I AP I S&P I International I PRNews I BizWire I CCN


pm Eastern Time

EI Paso Energy To Buy Coastal Corp.


By MARK BABINECK
AssocIated Press Writer

Related Quotes
BR

33 9/16

CGP

EPG

33 718

delayed 20 mins -

-1/2

37-+{)

+718

disclaimer

HOUSTON (AP) -- EI Paso Energy Corp. is buying rival Coastal Corp. (NYSE:CGP - news) for
about $ I a billion in stock, solidifYing El Paso's status as one of the nation's leading natural gas
companies.
The deal announced Tuesday would create a Houston-based firm with more than SI8 billion in annual
revenues. The two companies combined have 18,000 employees worldwide, though officials said there
will be an undetennined number of job cuts.
The boards of both Houston companies already have approved the transaction, which includes El Paso
Energy's assumption of $6 billion of Coastal debt. Pending regulatory and shareholder approval, the
deal is expected to close by year end.
"With this merger, EI Paso Energy will become the only company that is one of the top five in every
sector of the wholesale natural gas and power arena," said William A.. Wise, president and chief
executive officer oCEl Paso Energy.
Wise will lead the combined company.
El Paso Energy already owns a coast-to-coast natural gas pipeline. Coastal is engaged in natural gas
gathering, transport and marketing as well as oil refining, chemicals and mining.
Wise said the addition of Coastal's assets will help the company develop a telecommunications
network over its 58,000 miles of interstate natural gas pipelines in the United States.
"It will be a-tremendous path for data, voice and telephone," Wise said .. 'This expands our footprint
to 70 to 75 percent of the country,"
\

Under the terms of the agreement, each share of Coastal will be exchanged for 1.23 shares ofEI Paso
Energy_ At Friday's closing prices, the deal values each share of Coastal at about S45_66 -- about a 27
percent premium for Coastal shareholders.
Since spinning off from Burlington Resources in 1992, El Paso has grown considerably through

http://biz. yahoo. com/apf7000 I 18/energy _mer _ 2.html

1/21/00

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-12
Page 2 of 4

_abOO -

El Paso Energy To Buy Coastal Corp.

Page 2 of2

acquisitions. It acquired Tenneco Inc.'s pipeline business in 1996 for $4 billion and last year acquired
Sonat Inc. for $6 billion in stock and assumed debt.
At 5:15 p.m. EST on the New York Stock Exchange, EI Paso Energy shares were down $2.121/2 to
$35. and Coastal shares closed up $3 at $39.

More Quotes
and News:

Burlington Resources Inc (NYSE:BR - news)


Coastal Corp (NYSE:CGP - D.-ews)
EI Paso Energy Corp (NYSE:EPG - news)

Related News Categories:

oiVenergy. utilities

L_
Copyright 0 2000 Yahoo! All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy - Terms of Servia:
Copyright 2000 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The infonnation contained in the AP News repon may not be
published. broadcast, rcwrinen, or rcdiSlnouted without the prior wrinen authority of The Associated Press.
Questions or Comments?

Docket No. P-oJ-4


Exhibit FJH-12
Page J of 4

I~Lm 81 PfRAllO252 (,....


._,U,:lIJ)j:a'TN<
PHAlli 171 n.o 0.3%
COASTAL CORP. NYSE.CGP
"': I I ,..
58'
,,. ,~.
,-. ".'
'3 _1tlUlI
....~c,e.r~~.,
III\'l)

~.

PRICE

TNIUIESS

SAffiY
TCHNICAl.

SulpelDdl/2UlD

Hig'

_1tll!G

LEG ..

,.0

l..
DO
Insider Decisions;

.......,
~W1

Jf.".JJA&
000000000
0121510142
0 1 2 1 15 3 3 1 1

In.tllutkmal ~1lII1.

1/!ll
,.

"I'a!

aa_

,"
..

157118 lt10778 1570'5

k.-.:I

"'-:J~llliHtt

"-,

UnClplbbldAnllual,.,1a,ls $37.1mil.

..,.

1990

....

""."
,,,
.20

.25
UabiitJ No-

PlnsIoII

'J<

2U1.17

$4OO.01fl1. PM DIw'd $25.0 .....


Consn pIITQfiI'f of issurilS d pipelIne 1Ilb!.i:Ij.
..as. Sui is:ues 0( pRnt iIcL 59.000 IfII,. SCnes
All.19am.
(S33liq..); n.ooo n. sm-B
11.43
Cr.nI. ($50 Iq.). E-."" of Sertn A IN Senes B
hzs 1 .... lIIIdCIXI'f8'ts illu 3.563 CDm. s!tl. 11111
.1 C~ A sh ....... incL 32,000 .... 'fdIg Sma
CS5cIn.
f$100 k.).C'i. itm 1.01-4aJ11. _ .191
Qau A 11n; 12.000 sta.. Trusl f'n!fl!rrgd $2.111
(4'1l.c.p1)
QIftl. (Sl5 iq.).
Pfd &toc:k

10..
1.16

...

'991

UG
1.01
.20
LIJ

",.1
2.15

'21

!3B1.1
lDJl
,0;1

.....

'.1'1

,..,
,." ".
11./111

40.6'1

39.1'

1."

1...

--

,.

IWUl:ET CAP:'17 ... bilb


CURRENT POSIlIJN
ReceNabhls

0t1w

fl.Mll c.pf

136.7

11-42.1
... .5

1!132.9
=1
213.9

=0

1010.3

205.'

Cum!ntAueb
kdsP_yabll!

ffi69.Ij

"213.5
....

;om;

o..~ntL.U.

2illii3

l!i9U m;:s

__v.... ..

00'"''''
""'.

ANNUAl RAn!

.. .

25.'

32.5

17.4

21.1

,. ,

.-

3411.1
1911.11 2414.1
,.,.5
.Lll.ll

.....

'30..

305.11

..... ,,~ ........


....... 'Ull
'.11%
" <as".... 16.~
&0,.
_~.aj
F..,
JuLlG &';:iil'" Dec.J1 .....
P'uI &rill '11-"11

1nll.
_1.5",

..

... ..

."U, .....
U2

..
".,
,..
...
,..,

".n

49.61

58"

103

3.5!1

I."
10

1.03

'11

.20

10
LS!I

2D
UI

'.10

"J]

11.7l

'm

--..

199. 1997

Ln

,"

.20

L .M

">II

'JI
1.7,
10

''''

.....
,...
,.
''''
....
.""

1A1..--. --

'. /I ,

'00
'"

....

50

..'"

J""

"'; '~ ",


.'Jl

1998

- ....-11'"

"
"

"
"

'10 TOt. RE1\IZIt

1999

2000

"."
4>, ... "M
". .."
38.3r

U1
13

....U.

3,...
5,...

110.4
1Sl'.1
3IIlI.T

4.1
19.7
1D.4

r-

cVAlUELN.PW 11:. 0>05


R_'-Splfe
1U'
"Catl ..... ,. III
1M
JM ~J,.,ahA
.JI
25 Dil'dl Ded'1lI ,.. IIh
.JI

2001

1.J1

..20

.20

-,,,eo -,-

B"'nIIMI~m

no...

1.01

10136

..
I

.".

21
"'.7

111126.& 111.3
41.3"
121
41~.1 183.1
31'25

J<9L.I
1981.0

'.01
11.-4'

1."1i
1021~
IIU"
5832
232.'

28.3'

1."

.r>

1197

11895

11.6"

1D.11

..

270.4
162\

"1
d85.1
mOl 3661.1
1~7.!- 2&79.4

3232
11J\

291.1
4.1'10

2<92

21.'

:1312.'

7.11

4.61-

~.1"

1.71

9.5'
1.1'.
251

.r>

1>.1\

10J'

11U

6.6"

....

RIidn.lEbID
A" AM'I1IY'1II YWd

==.,
-...

U.

It'"

auSIiIIEQ:
coamr CtI'pontIun ...
dl'olrd"lIlIll --U ~
~
~
frIl:M ~
nltllliaion fI nanlga; ...
tMI ,.
~
.,....
UlIe ill Itfeo ,widnlt .wi one it ...
Rut:ky VI. slDs.1Id I(a;ftIaS. 0Jms ... 01 ,.....
wIh tnughput ~
of 4I3,CKIO bblir.Jda)'. Eqaa fur III mid ga PnrrM

...

Ran .. laW C"


R"'CIl5lr,E~
~tDe-Eq
AI 011".. tit IW. PnIf

..

'111

Elrd presenI nUl: $1.581 mI.. NtIIJ '- ~


"**'9 IIld pcMII"
.......
buI. ~
..
'14.000. Oft. & Di". OM! 3.1'1. rI
QIm!IDlII. SO.B of ClaD 11MQs; ~
~
...
1GA"
CIf QIIImJIl" 15,", d ca. A ....
(3I'Dll '""-".
CEO, Daid A.
M.dge. Inc..: DE. Adll.: NIII GrMII'r.IJ PIIza, Hou*ItI. 1)[ 77CMa.
T. : 7f3.1n14QO.1..-rn-t
... .taltlbJlp.can.

creasing demand. spurred by a bulldout of


nalural..gas fired power plants. Output is
on pace to grow by 40% in 2000, followed
~dOUble-diglt'growth
in 2001. On top DC
natw-al gas.' prices are currently at
some oC the highest
leveb in retent
memory. In all. earnint= are on pace to
grow by 26% In 2000.
.llowed by 17%
gaJn In 2001.
Coastal shares have soared In concert
with ra~dJy rising natural gas prices.
Since
e share-exchange
.rate far the
merger is ftxed. we believe this has more
to do with the strung long-tenn outlook for
natural gas prices than the prospects over
the merger. Given this. wlfsvorable news
relating to the merger would probably not
stgnlncanUy
hurt the shares. With that
saId. appredaUon
an a stand-alone basis
discounts much or the healthy earnings
galm we are projec::t:lng over the coming 3
to .5 years. But Investors Interested In the:
combined oompany should note that we exped prospects to accelerate, and refer to
our 1 Paso Energy report .
Noah Goldner
December 22. 2000

...... ,.,.. ~rBIN"'."'_"''''Jon''''.lt''''''_''''_of''''''''''.

~"t:

priIII:ll. ~

II1II

I'IUhldlJ __
(1M9): uII. 5Z.J mI. bbls.: ga, Z,5Z7.f Bd.
acquiring prodUdng properties and dO'1elCoastal's IIle'r'ger with EI Paso Ener~
Is pending FTC approval, which cou
uping them further
to c:apitaUze on in-

11.0S

"..,

..
...
"..

lLft
ItJl

'81

...." ... ,."


".

Ilf"*I:at -." ........

m -I
"10 IAnI,ten- DIbIISniII)

1111
"..

'1982
381~" 4tDU
1.1'1.
'251
11.3'"

AS

...... l~

NlIPIdt .....

5.1"

0136.7

diuled. Emudn
extaordIla'y
pII~Ios:Ys): Goft: llII.bout..lan. 2". Diw'd~1IIn1 d;J.tes-.
D)In mAorIs., _jJ~ b stICk spMs.
'19. (9'): '93, 2l; '86, 74;: '91, \'&4t!~ NP1 1s:1fA Jail . Apnl, July, lJd
(EI VImUS aa:ountjng rrdhocIs 1IS1lId.
e.nngs repaI due lite .Ian.
mJG. .......
1'MIiI"IIIII. r.a...1r-.." .-.-.__ If'I!lo bIl~"''''
,.... _ ...p.......... .....,. It
1II1,PlJBU'SI'I:Rl/Cl1R
QR'NYRRDRSOIl.OMr:;.SlllICS+IR
. Thi3plltfO( ..
i:r.RdJ .....
W

2004 2005
'50

,:~,:~:.: ...,..."
""~ ,i;
I'"''
...
I'"
"... ".,.n ,.... -..::
...
;;;;.
.ro

." ...,
,4>'
,. "...

- - --

.....
".,

"

...... . . ..

1-4.5'\

"., ,... ,,:,. ,..,


.... "'"''''' """"'. "'",...

~ .... y

2003

"'"'11.1'"

199. 1993 1994 1995

'.62

,'C"'"

be Imminent. Shareholders for both cornparnes have already voted for the deal. UJ]der whJch Coastal stockholders
will feE~gs
cetve 1.23 shan-s oC E1 Paso for each CoIlS5.S",
Dwidlf1lil.
'.51
9.0%
fZD"
tal share. The discoWlt between Coastal
shareholders'
consideration
and the EI
QIWlTEI..,
eoJPaso quotauon has narrowed to Jess than
lIar.J1
1%,
reflecting
sentiment
that
the: FTC wUl
JLllS 201. L1" 2226 Il&53
give Its consent relatively soon TIle transIIZ7 73GI
I...
actJon was originally scheduled to dose by
I.
8197
1892
September
or October. but was delayed
!O71
ZOO, UIIl
JTfI
untU Jater tn the fourth quarter. giving the
Finns addltJona) Um~ to address some regEAMfGS PER SKNIE"
eoJconcerns_ Since then. Coastal sold
1br.31 JudO Srp.31 Dtc.3,
y- ulat~
NaturaJ
Gas System to
.<5
.35
.3&
.5O
1.15 Its Gulfstream
Duke Energy. And even if the FTC has
.42
.42
.11
UI
.56
.62
.47
.78
L30 further quP:Stlons, they would likely be
'199
.OJ
.58
U resolved with some addiUonal asset pnmLooo
.1'
.s
ing that would not affect the deal. Upon
.ff
completion,. the combined entity wUl repQUARTERLYDIYIlBIDS PIllea' lIar.'1 Jua.30 Sep.3I OK..31
resent one of the nation's largest enqgy
companies. with partlcubu" strength In the
.05
.05
.05
.05
20
growing natural gas markeL
.2ll
.05
.05
.05
"97 .05
Rapidly expanding
&P operations
.05
.063
.063
.23
.05
.25
.063
.063
.063
have been propelling
CoastaJs bottom
.063
.063
.063
.063
Une. The rompany has been aggressively
ai' dIIrIgI "-

farvel Pm Range

.. 2

29.'

~'.,..

.. _
lSS.'

....
"Cosh_

18.9

,.... ,... ""., ""


,U..
12."
..
'"
,n. "'.. ",. ""
~
-,
",. "'"
..,.
;;;
,m
....
...
_.
_,u_
~ ~.
~
~ ~r> ".. "-11
.r>
.""
.,.
""..,
."
Coo' lImili
"
....
,
""
"'32 "'91
..,
,.,..
"". .. ""'., ,... 1.4, "'",..
,"..."
.... '" ..I
UI .n
""
'''''
,....
....
."" m
,,..
,m
...
UI to."
".1'1
,.
.""
,,.
""
'n
."" ""
,..... "'A
""
""
'" '" '"
""".,

CObImon Stud. 21",481.423 s.hs.. (4O"Ao aI CAp"\)


IlldlDu J42.S62 MI. crI C.., A. E.a sII d CJ. A
hu.l00 WIn IIIld IXIII\'ft iftl1 . of CIlI'lL

ea,f'~

,"I"'."

,111'''1

..

PIItn>11t 12.'

CAPITALSTRUCTURhs of !II3MII
Tabl DQt $601S. 1 mi. Dill k15 Vrs $1150.0 mil.
LT klteftst H25..0 mi.
Ll Debt $5SM.3'"
(lotal .....
~J'l:
3")
1!I8"'of~"I)
uau.

16.9

""ll~l_.

:::: ~: = ~.-..
'Gl"

Mii_

1S.T
'U

15.0
11.0

11.9

~'::...~---..

.... ""Nil
(+S;~

Prim

)..b-2~

J .... 2:;
Z"-l

-- ---

2QOJ.IS t'RWEI. ....::...~ lllllll

..

19.~
1,u1

2-1gl-1

IlETA .Ill lUll.

11.0

'S

...........

IMII b

1'ft'"lin!I.IIIIIIletirIg"J

lI<Jiber',_~

pi*lI. ElI:dlwir: ~

...... -.
MnIiI::R.

C_'~F"""'''''....
ra.Witr

-l..Un!

p~
pllNl

S~ck's

III

Prb C;~
,. ... tanc.
&mlnp Prm'1da!II1ty

10

I'.

30
:11:

II,

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-12
Page 4 of 4

4l.lJ,
47 PE 34 1 emov:
KINDERZ _MORGAN
INC NYSE-KII I~
,,,
.,.
"""
". ". ,,. ". >..,
32 __
"
AAlJO

lIIEIJIESS

t;:

11.4

High:

...... "
~tl

....

:',.,

",

U,

......

...

I..,

..

'U.

"JlI
1.'"
.16

.. ..

... ..
,
..."
,.., ....

'.0\

'"

.. ....

.... ..

.."

.,

,.

c:.c.m.on!ltodr.1 u,G,3731hs
1"\'" """~
aaf1an11Dl1
~
CAP: $5A blAicrI (1111" C~)

..

'

=c:r-

.. , (A", CIll

144"
1322

.....

"'""""-

2093.

""li63]

... <

"""""Uob.

aD'
5'i'3l:
33tH
216.1

1!:!5::l SiD

..... "......
.....
.....
""" '''''
..... a." ....~

_RATES

P.- Elt'd '17

llYn.

~"l
-Cash Fbw'"

13~"

75%
12....

.... .,....
~

&1.5"

..."

''''
"""

S....

.....

F.
QIIIollTERl.f ~~~
~ 0111
""..91 .......
Doc.!I
'ST ..m.o 357.9 515.1 782.1
'l1li 166A 1lJJ9.5 1045.7 1136.2 ~~
1_
<Cal 408l 471.1 Gl5 1745.5
:lOIlD 4lIl5 51gB 749.1 19U 2m
2lO1
1IlOl mil
l5D
EARIANGS PER SHARE. "
CoI".91 ......., 5op.3lI IlK.!\
19!11 .43
1.83
Z3
~1
1.1D
11
:st
.26
.26
'118
11199 .'l6
.!IIi
14
.11
25
1.21
2IIID
:0.
.J5
Z3
.45 1.55
2lO1
.29
.JlJ
QLlAilVU.y DI'tNUDS PAD ..
CoIF"
..... .31 JU\.3D .. ;::.;n. DIC.:t1
C0I-

......

......
,...

..

1.1

1.
2lIlIII

...

.. .-""

.....,

.173
.18
.187

.1'

.113

.113
.1' .18
.187 .187

:J3

:J3

:J3

11!>

11!>

11!>

... ...

.,87
.2Il
11!>
11!>

..

1,7'

11.'"

1116."

211.4

1.0\
10.0\ 1l.5\

6"

'JI\

..10
.13
.16
B5

2000 2001

199M
".97

.....

8.011

1Z.1l

12.1'

613.1
00..
12.6'10

1.3\

lIS

....

IMIvBd

.2Il

174

,.\110

,,0>
'~'"""
.SA
'~'
cVALUE LIE PUB IC.
U

141.1

11.7..

11Z,67

'.lijJtill61i. IRI ....

'IlIh Amiri:a'1 <II & (;,.

.-an. dIrMId frmt


S; b:III ps tiIdu-

Cap~1994; II::qJt8i

R ......
,.. ...
2M "CafI FiDW'" per III
&rMgI perth A
Dlf'dI DlcrllllW III '

_
--15.45

--

a..ns:'&4,c1S1.oIi;~,

....Illj;

'90, $1.m: '91, d$1.2O; '94,

o 2DOO, VIae lre

, 'tfJ, d1~.

k. M

ItlIIIWill.

Faa

.11

pit' stI
CcIrIIIIGIlIfIS 0vtIt'g

121

11'

WA

12.4'
'9S.!l

m.
"'"', U.,.
"U

135
fa

lIlA

.. .0\
1.6,

U\

,18W

IIJI
0125
'115

"1'-"
lZ21.l

'.6\

""

a.u:m.

RIIIlMI'f;RItio

A'll Am, Dlr'lIlilld

.".

....-Is-Il
....
~
U,,\ I_

""

25A

,'" -:':"'~I

....

IftcoInI Til Ra
Ull NdPrail. ...
IIJI
LDnt-T,,. DtIllI$lNll)

..".

....
....

....
"'"

II>! SOu.
RItIrn an TalII Clp'1
IJ\ Rlbl't!M1 !tv, Ea&itw

....... ::""'''..... """........


1....

rw.o.tIIIW.,.,.

... lift; Ki'dlI' IIUIflI\. 1081l w dip. _


2..3" ......
3,200~,
11,9:0IIInhDIdn. .......
~
III! Ml:Ivln
0llf1 21.2% n
6.3 QI' Ikd; ~
e.K;fhllkiJn, SMo; (3Im
poxy). 01lIhrwI &. ~
Ridwd D.1<n*; PrJeIdItt WbR Y.
t.lcn}an. b:..: KS. MD-= 5IXI DIAls, ..
llXJJ, HlaaU1, 11
77002. T~
71~m.ean
~~.a:m.

kear

.....

s ctAireII '-

THEflIBUSliERlS~PONSIEI~Nf1ERROftSOR.a.lSSIlNSIRE
d i
be
!RnII CI ~
ill
*'IIDt rr dhr

...,

.79

KInder Morgan ~ed


gains in all (f.proves their merger.
segments in the
rd quarter. though
rowth in demand for e1ec:tt1c. power
the
pcoflt
Incre~
at Natural
Gas should boost .......mp In two dJv9Pipellne, KMJ's largest division, resulted
sions. NGPL is f~
some e2a:eSS capa.d.t, Chltsgo, though
solely frmn lower depredation rc:;se.
In ty In lis bl!!ll"'t
other areas. pront gsfns ranged
m 61% Its firm transport capacity I. currently fuIIy subscribed. In the next few years. howat the power ~enerat1on and mJscellaneous
segment to so Id profits In local BBSdistriever. around
10,000 megawatts
of gasbut Ion. co~ared
with a loss In the prlor- fired power plana should ~
on stream.
perl
. The com~y's
share
of using gas canied by the pipeline, KInder
Morgan's power gl!nennlon
dlv1slon has
Indrr Morgan Energy
artnen'
Income.
about $28 mUlion. remained about flat signed contracts
to buUd two gas-fln:d
with the June 2000 quarter',
but It was merchant
power plants near Its pipeline,
double that of the Interstate plbllne
sys- with major electr1c utlUties as partners.
tem sold to the Partnership last
ec~ber.
KMI wtl earn develGeIlt
and management fees. and NCP
wlll ship the gas.
The company's
interest
In Kindel'
Morgan Energy shot.dd drive earnings
The power will be marketed
by KMl's
growth In 2001. KMI currently rec::elves ~ers,
with
little
risk
to Kinder
about 59% of the Partnership's
Increases
organ. The company plans to build eight
In earnIngs and cash distributions,
and more plants over the next five yean..
soUd growth at the Partnership seems as The Shares are a timelY:iJear-ahelld
But at about
times next
sured next year, thanks to about $800 mll- commitment.
lion of acquisitions that closed In 2000 and YeaT'S share~net
estJrnate,
KMfs stock
a $1.15 billion deal that should dose In price discounts some of the strong earnJanuary. Beyond that, we think the Partin~S gains We foresee. Double-digit gains
wi I likely continue, but the PIE multiple
nershlp may be able to probably acquire
some assets that the FTC wlU Ukely re- will probably decrease
lJeoeJiI_22;"'2(J(1(J
quire Chevron or Texaco to divest before it SJsourney B. RomB1~

Nu19.rep;xtllJe'atriJ~.(811ecl
"" ................. ,..Go.... " .........
zs. App'ux.It((j pynt. dDs: 15tt rJ FCl.,

........

11..

11.7.5Book Valut

Tl

~-- ..

~-''''-~--lr--'''~''ji';C"'''''''-~Im-_ ...
~
__
, ~
"-":~.IDj;~;

1.11

7.11

~--.""--_.,"Pro trmII. 1999 ~

fJa

.IS

..

1.10

55\

,.96
.96

, 11.' ....
<B,
I"
.... ""'" "'
.,,.
" "".
,.....
....., <l4'
"""
,... ....
OJ,
.....
'"
'"
5J'
,n
....
U
I.'"
.., n. ....,,,.

"....
...

42].;
BUSINESS: KnIIr Mu'gBrI tIrmwtJ K N Enrr;)') it lhnI"&:I
'9~ IIlDnII a- ~
.-.d ~
..
IIrgIlII ~
n..-

50 ..
31171
1822.11 1019.1

""-

.....
- '~'.., ..,
'So 1Ol.1iIEl1AI

.... ...... ..-........ ..- ...


_Cop'l_ ...'",...
"" ...

,sa, '''''
,..... ,,"-,
sa'
....

..
..
U,
U,
...
aI, .... ....
... ... "" ... ...

19.5

300.'
".3
"".1

"

.. .., . . ...

"

... ..

,.., ,sa.
,..,

_""""/ON
".. ,... ..cJ',"'~.
693.'
1123.5

. "I"

"".
.... "..
". ".

....-.....

",p, .

.... ... 'M' ...ns" ,


I."... ., ,,,... ,... "... ,..
."
,-"
...
...
"".,
."
,.. ,..
1.2.
u.
..,
,m
I""'~~""
...
'
'
.
19

'
1
6'
.. ......,.. ", ..."...~"""'JE_ i
.... "...
,...
.. ... 16..... ,.51 ....
,.,", '" ..... ... .....

.....

.....,
..",."

- -- -- - ""'"

II

1188 1889 1990 1991 19112 1993 ggo' 1;115 1""


19117
16.11 IUt
1111 ,7.84
26.19 31.76
2821
,.84
lJJl
W
1..SZ
H1
,-"
'.<5
.35
.1l
A7
AI
A' 1.22 1.43 ,.63
);l
.
.
.
.52
51
.7
AI
.13
tI, '.86
,-" i1l 120 .13 m Ul 1.71
6."
'19
6.40
4l
6.7"
0"
'M 10.13 1\'"
.43 20.'" . .15 2'''' 21.13 21
012.13
"'22 "'.35
,,.
153"
11.7
,OT ".0 ill 171
ll""
11> "ID' Si, lI] on
$I
3.015
.15
Jl
1-"
'29
'19
U,
1.6,
404\
5.0..
10\ 11\
01.1'
55'
CAPfTAL ma.JCTlItE .. oIli3WOll
..
U ,1181' 1103.4
".. :tlS' 19,A
TatII Debt $3835.5 ~.Dulin 5 l'ftI S157Smt.
,U\
11U' 19.0\ 11.1'
LTo.tIt UIJ5.5 mi. LTIrandltS270~.
,<.2
251
5\1
lream. S27SrriI. pwihmId MOJrilIe of capilli
196
m
'U 3,.
61'
37 ..
JlJl\ 37..1i\
31n 1'-6\ 36.0..
(TdaI~eamsl:
t~
U,
(.... "'Cap1)
12\
16\
55' '.0\
01.'"
~
UoIcapblbdAmuif RemIs So55.2'"
diU
2U 2lS
dB'
'07
"'A
Pwubll..LIbIlltyPWn
lI,.
1..0.1
22O.ll
"'A
"'.7
15.06

"'-"

T.".rt PrtDt RangI


2D03 2DO

I.

1'1"

"""":"'~"'"

P-.:.enI 15.0
03 _
U
m.- 10.'

70
81249

""",1,'1"1,,,,

" "
"""
1886 1887

1lUU 1985
22.97

....

,..

24.1
12.2

_.,

.;,lP

I'

2ll

Decl.lona

100

223

18.0

""

-l=-~- - InsUtutlonal

40.3

".0

20.2

).ftIr.z~1lW3

'3"

JF.A.JJ
001201000
000000(110
00111(1022

17.9
13.8

"'2~''''......_
oc.;_

Am,TCICII

.. "
1n.Cler o.clIlana

92

2 32 IIII'D
l'Ul
.g. 0.4%

RELIl1iE
PERAOO

...,;IU

LEGENDS

... .....
.... (~~l
7.

".0

....~~=-~llll
g .

1B

'-

PBlll'lJJ1
SIIFTY
Tot.IlCAl.
em. IIJ (1.aa.~

tnI,

.... 1lIS~tI*drICl~S
rr IIsed b
rr'

~ lie ___

In

,adjuIlIldb

110~
...............
CI dDtri::.

.....

~dlIIwluse.=
__

II

'SII'IEe rr

tn:l.

"

I',

,II.

II.

Docket No. P-03-4

Exhibit FJH-13
Page 1 of 4

Docket No, P-03-4

Exhibit FJH-13
Page 2 of 4

Graph 5-3
Realized

Equity Risk Premium Per Year

1926-2002
60
50
:,::;1,

'.

40

;-

.,>':'"

~;.

"

.".

..

..

: :<:

.,."

:'.

..

. ~-.,

:'

.;

'E 30
i;:;
Q)

0C

20

=
E

10

a:'"
..>.,
::>

-10

U.J

30

.2

D..
0.:

-20

0-

-40

-50
1925

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

Year-end

Excerpted

1935

from p. 72

SBBr Valuation

Edition

2003 Yearbook

1995

2002

Docket No. P-D3-4


Exhibit FJH-13

Page 3 of 4
Chapter 5

Appropriate Historical Time Period


The equity risk premium can be istimated using any historical time period. For the U.S,) market data
exists at least as far back as the late 18005. Therefore, it is possible to estimate the equity risk premium
using data that covers roughly the paS! 100 years.
The Ibbotson Associates equity risk premium covers the time period from] 926 to the present.
The original data source (or the time series comprislng the equity risk premium is the Center for
R<:search in Security Prices. CRSP chose to begin their analysis of market returns with 1926 foOt two
main reasons. CRSP determined that the time period around 1926 was approximately when quality
financial data became available. They also made a conscious eHon to include the period of extreme
market volatility from the late twenties and early thirties; 1926 was chosen because it includes one
full business cycle of data before the market crash of 1929. These are the mast basic reasons why
Ibbotson Assocjates' equity risk premium calculation window starts in 1926.
Implicit in using history to forecast the future lS the assumption that investoni' expectations for
future outcomes conform to past results. This method assumes that the price of taking on risk changes
only slowly, if at all, over time. This "future equals the past" assumption is most applicable to a
random time-series variable. A time-series variable is random if its value in one period is independent
of its value in other periods.
Does the Equity Risk Premium Revert to Its Mean over Time?
Some have argued that rhe estimate of rhe equity risk premium is upwardly biased since the stock.
market is currently priCed high. In other words, since there have been several years with
exrra.ordinarily high m_ark~r r~rurns and reaJjz~d equiry risk premia, the expectarion is that returns
and realized equity risk"premia will be low~r in the future, bringing the average back [0 a normalized
level. Th~ argument relies on sevenl studies that have tried to determine whether reversion to the
mean exists in stock market pric.es and the equity risk premium.! Several academics contndiet each
other on this topic; mor~ove~ the evid~nce supporting this argument is neither conclusive nor
compelling enough to make such a strong assumption.
Our own empirical evidence suggests that the yearly difference between the stock market total
return and the U.S. Treasury bond income return in any particular year is random. Graph 53,
presented earlier, illustrates the randomness of the realized equity risk premium.

2 Fama, Eugene F., and Ktnneth R. Fr~nch. -P~rmantnt and Temporary Compontnu of Stock Prices, - JOllrnill of PolitiClJI
Ec;orlOmy. April 1988. pp. 246-273. POltrba, Jilmes M . llnd lawrence H. Summerli. "Mean RtveIliion in Stock Pri~Ii,]ollrna.I of fintl.rtc;ud cot:lo",ics. OClober 1988. pp. 27-59. to, Andrew W" and A. Craig MacKinlay. "Stock Market
Prices Do Nor FoJlow Raodom WalJr.s:Evidence [rom a SjmpJ~ Specificarion Teu," The Rftliew of Fi"arr.d41 SlMdies, Spring
1988, pp. 41-66. Finne"y, John D_. and Dean Leisfikow. "Tht Bthnior of Equity and D~t Risk. Prtmillms: Arc They
Mean Reverting and Downward-Trtnding?The Jou.rnal 0/ Portfoljo Managerne?lt. Summer 1993, pp. 73-84. Ibbollion.
Roger G., 2nd Seen L. LlJmmcT. "The Ikh2"ioc of Equity and Debt RilL: Prc:miums: Commtnr,- TM joltrntJI 0/ Po,tfolio
Ma"agernnlt. Summer 1994, pp. 98-100. Finnerry, John D., and Dean Leistikow. "The Behavior of Equity and Debt Ris.k
Premiums: Reply to Commtnt," The Journal of Parr/olio Management, Summer U94. pp. 101-102.

74

SSSI Valuation Edition 2003 Yearbook

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-13
Page 4 of 4
The Equity Risk Premium

A statistical

measure

of the ranclom!,css of a return

series is its serial correlation.

Serial

correlation (or autocorrelation)


is defined as the degree to which the: return of a given series is related
from period to period. A serial correlation near positive one indicates that returns are predictable
from one period to the next period and are positively related. That is, the returns of one period are a
good prC'dictor of the returns in the next period. Conversely, a serial correlation near negative one
indicates that the returns in one period are inversely. related to those of rhe next period. A serial
correlation near zero indicates that the returns arc: random or unpredictable from one period to the
next. Table: 5-3 contains the serial correlation of the market total returns, the realiIed long-horizon
equity risk premium, and inflation.
Table 5-3
Interpretation

of Annual Serial CQrrelations

1926-2002
Serial COlTelatlon

Series

InterpR!tatlon

lar~e G~mpany Stock. Total ~eturns

0.05

Random

~~L;J~tyRis_~P_~,:,ium .

0.06

Random

In"ation

0.65

Tn!:nd

Aafas

The significance of this evidence is that the realized equity risk premium next year will not be
dependent on the realized equity risk premium fro~ this year. That is, there is no discern able pattern
in the realized equity ri.sK premium:""it is virtually impossible to forecast next year's realized risk
premium based on the premium g.f the previous yeaL For example, if this year's difference between
the riskless rate and the return on the stock market is higher than last year's, [hac docs not imply chat
next year's wiJI be hjgher than this year's. It is as likely to be higher as it is lower. The best esrimare of
the expected value of a variable that has behaved randomly in the past is the average (or arithmetic
mean) of its past values.
Table 5-4 also indicates that the equity risk premium varies considerably by dtcadt, from a
high of 17.9 percent in the 1950s to a lawaI 0.3 p<tcent in the 1970s. This look at the historical
equiry risk premium reveals no observable pattern.
Table 5-4
Long~HorizDn EquIty Risk Premium by Decade
1926-2002
19205

1930s

19405

19505

19605

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s-

1993-2002

17.6%

2.3%

8.0%

H.9'lo

4.2%

0.3%

7.9%

12.1'"

-20.2%

4.8%

-Basad

Clf'l

the period

1928-1929.

'Based on 1he penod 2000-2002.

Large Company Stock Returns


From 1926 to 2002
(%)
SO.OO
50.00

40.00

30.00

AJ

20.00
1D.00
0.00
(10.00)

,.

'\

~
~

(20.00)
(30.00)
(40.00)
(50.00)

~@~~~-~~~&~~~~~~~~~~~
,,~
"Cb
....Cb
,,""
,,'?J - ....~..
,,~
,,~..1 ,,"'0"' ....~

"QI

....Cb

.....Cb

,Cb

.......,..

"q

.....
~

.....
qr

....
q-"

'1,."'"'

c
o

mn

,,'"

-o2:!
.. ere:

10 ;:;: 0

..... "
I1l ."

0:1:0

Source of Information:
Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation Valuation Edition 2003 Yearbook.
Ibbotson Associates, Chicago, II

....
~w
en",,'"

Total Returns on Large Company Stocks


1926 to 2002

Large Company Stocks

1931
-50%

1937

-40%

2001
2000
1973
2002 1966
1974 1957
1930 1941

-30%

-20%

-10%

1990
1981
1977
1969
1962
1953
1946
1940
1939
1934
1932
1929

1994
1993
1992
1987
1984
1978
1970
1960
1956
1948
1947

0%

1988
1986
1979
1972
1971
1968
1965
1964
1959
1952
1949
19441926

10%

1999
1998
1996
1983
1982
1976
1967
1963
1961
1951
1943
1942

20%

1997
1995
1991
1989
1985
1980
1975
1955
1950
1945
1938 1958
1936 1935 1954
1927 1928 1933

30%

40%

50%

60%

(Percent)

..

Arithmetic Mean: r A

L r, /

mn
11

t - 1

""C::E: Z

..
lQ

~o
'"N,--g
." ,

o:to

Source: Stocks, Bonds. Bills, and Inflation - Valuation


Edition 2003 Yearbook.
pp. 214-215, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago, lL

.... .:a,CotJ

"' .... Jo.

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-14
Page 3 of 5

The Equity Risk Premium

For example, if bond yields rise unexpectedly, investors can receive a higher coupon payment from a
newly issued bond than {rom the purchase "Of an outstanding bond with the former lower-coupon
payment. The outstanding lower-coupon bond will thus fail to attract buyers, and its price will
decrease, causing its yield to increase correspondingly, as its coupo~ payment remains the same. The
newly priced outstanding bond will subsequently attract purchasers who will benefit from the shift in
price and yield; however, those investors who already held the bond will suffer a capital loss due to
the fall in price.
Anticipated changes in yields are assessed by the market and figured into the price of a bond.
Future changes in yields that are not anticipated will cause the price of the bond to adjust accordingly. Price changes in bonds due to unanticipated changes in yields introduce price risk into the total
return. Therefore, the total remrn on the bond series does not represent the riskless rate of return.
There is no evidence that investors expe:ct the historical trend of bond capital losses to be repeated in
the future (otherwise, bond prices would be adjusted accordingly). Therefore, historical total returns
are biased downward as indicators of future expectations. The income return better represents the
unbiased estimate of the purely riskless rate of return, since an investor can hold a bond to maturity
and be entitled to the income: return with no capital loss.
Arithmetic versus Geometric Means
The equity risk premium data presented in this book are arithmetic average risk premia as opposed
to geometric average risk premia. The arithmetic average equity risk premium can be demonstrated
to be most appropriate when discounting future cash flows. For use as the expected equity risk
premium in either the CAPM or the building block approach, the arithmetic mean or the simple
difference of the arithmetic means
stock market returns and risk less rat~s is the relevant number.
This is because both the CAPM and rhe building block approach are additive models, in which the
cost of capital is the sum of its pans. The geometric average is more appropriate for reponing past

of

performance, since: i( represents the compound average return.


The argument for using the arithmetic average is quite straightforward. In looking at projected
cash flows, "the equity risk premium that should be employed is the equity risk premium that is
expecled to aClUall)' be incurred over Ihe fulure time periods. Graph 5-3 shows the realized equity
risk premium for each year based on the returns of the S&P 500 and the income remrn on long-term
government bonds. (The actual, observed difference betwe:en the return on the stock market and the
riskless rate is known as the realized equity risk premium.) There is considerable volatility in the
year-by-year statistics. At times the realized equity risk premium is even negative.

IbbotsonAssoc:i::l.tf!~

71

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-14

Page 4 of 5

Chap1er 5

Graph 5-3
Realized Equity Risk Premium Per Year
1925-2002
60

50
40

""~

"P

~
~
=
E

30
20
10

.~

Q.

'"

if

-10

-20

-30

-40
-50
1935

1925

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2002

Year-end

To illustrate how the arithmetic mean is more appropriate than the geometric mean in discounting
cash flows, suppose the expected return on a stock is 10 percent per year with a standard deviation
of 20 percent. Also assume that only two outcomes are possible each year- +30 percent and -10
percent (i.e., the mean plus or minus one standard deviation).

The probability of occurrence for

each outcome is equal. The growth of wealth over a two-year period is illustrated in Graph 5-4 .

Docket No. P-03-4


Exhibit FJH-14
Page 5 of 5

The EqUity Ris~ Premium

Graph 5-4
Growth of Wealth Example

$1.89

$1.70

$1.00

$0.70

Years

The most common outcome of $1:17 is given by the geometric mean of 8.2 percent. Compounding
the possible outcomes as follows derives the geometric mean:

[(1+ 0.30)x (1- 0.10)0 -1

= 0.082

However, the expected value is predicted by compounding the arithmetic, not the geometric, mean.
To ilJusrrate this, we need to look at the probabiljty-weighted
average of aH possible outcomes:

(0.25

$1.69) = $0.4225

+ (0.50 X $1.17) = $0.5850


+ (0.25

$0.81)

Total

$0.2025
$1.2100

Therefore, $1.21 is the prohability-weighted expected value. The rate that must he compounded
achieve the terminal value of $1.21 after 2 years is]O percent, the arithmetic mean:
$1x(1+0.10f

to

=$1.21

The geometric mean, when compounded, results in the median of the distribution:
$lx(1 + 0.OB2f = $1.17
The arithmetic mean equates the expected future value with the present value; it is therefore the
appropriate discount rate.

I~
~

Ibbotson.A.ssociates

73

.'

FJH T-2 Workpapers


STATE OF ALASKA
THE REGULATORY

COMMISSION

OF ALASKA

Before Commissioners:

Mark K. Johnson, Chair


Kate Giard
Dave Harbour
James S. Strandberg
G. Nanette Thompson

In the Matter of the Filing by AMERADA HESS


PIPELINE CORPORATION; BP PIPELINES
(ALASKA) INC.; EX,XONMOBrL PIPELINE
COMPANY; PHILIPS TRANSPORTATION
(ALASKA) INC.; UNOCAL PIPELINE COMPANY;
and WILLIAMS ALASKA PIPELINE COMPANY,
LLC of Tariff Rates To Be Effective January I, 2003,
for the Intrastate Transportation of Petroleum over the
Trans Alaska Pipeline System and the Investigation
into the 2001 and 2002 Tariff Rates for the Intrastate
Transportation of Petroleum over the
Trans Alaska Pipeline System

)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)

P-03-4

RECEIVED
.')EP 0 3 2003
SU l!- Ui I,'-A$t,~
REGUlI. TOAY COMMISSW. Dr AlASKI.

tOYl.fidudi~1
~tr ltttn

VOLUME II OF III
Workpapers (1 o(2)
of
FRANK J. HANLEY
ADS Consultants - Utility Services
on Behalf of

TESORO ALASKA COMPANY


September

3, 2003

tt-. WI

1te.IUH4
dA,"C..l

yz.. &y.

t-} T e ~DrD

h ,.

1\)'2.1,13

Docket No. P-Q3-4


WORKPAPERS
(None)

to FJH-1

Docket No. P-03-4


WORKPAPERS
(None)

to FJH-2

Docket No. P-D3-4


.,;..._ ..

WORKPAPERS

to FJH3

(Consisting of Workpapers

# 1 - 3)

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-3

Capital Structure Based upon Total Capital for


the Proxy Group of Five Oil Companies
for the Years 2000 through 2002
(in millions)

2002

2001

2000

$405.000
$0.000
$3.498
$0.000
$357.432
$765.930

$373,000
$0.000
$3.307
$0.000
$352.896
$729.203

$283.000
$0.000
$3.102
$0.000
$349.382
$635.484

Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P.


Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
MinOrity Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Capital

$1,486.500
$12.500
$0.400
$0.000
$991.600
$2.491.000

$746.400
$176.200
$3.300
$0,000
$644.200
$1 ,570.100

$799.300
$0.000
$3.200
$0.000
$535.900
$1 338.400

Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P.


Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
MinOrity Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Capital

$694.330
$0.000
$1.030
$0.000
$392.284
$1,087.644

$262.624
$0,000
$1.010
$0.000
$219.517
$483.151

$166.900
$0.000
$0,968
$0.000
$160,767
$328.635

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners L.P.


$3,826.489
Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
$0.000
MinOrity Interest
$42.033
$0.000
Preferred Slock
$3.415.929
Common Equity
$7,284.451
Total Capital

$2,791.793
$0.000
$65,236
$0.000
$3,159.034
$6016.063

$1,904.402
$0,000
$56.169
$0.000
$2,117,067
$4,079,638

TEPPCO Partners L.P.


Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
MinOrity Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Capital

$730.472
$360.000
$0.000
$105.630
$543.181
$1.739.283

$835,784
$0,000
$4,296
$105.411
$315.057
$1260,548

Buckeye Partners, L.P.


Long-Term Debt
ShortTerm Debt
Minority Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Capital

Source of Information:

$1,377.692
$0.000
$0.000
$103.363
$891.842
$2,372.897

Standard & Poo(s Compustat Services, Inc.,


PC Plus Reseach Insight Data Base

Docket No. P-03-4

Work paper # 2 10 FJH-3

Capital Structure Based upon Total Capital for


the Gas Pipeline Companies
for the Years 2000 through 2002
(in millions)

2002

2001

2000

$16,882.000
$1,689.000
$3,420.000
$0.000
$8,377.000
$30368.000

$16,412.000
$1,515.000
$3,088.000
$0.000
$9,356.000
$30.371.000

$7,606.000
$1,426.000
$2,331.000
$0.000
$3,569.000
$14.932.000

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

$8,550.000
$1,679.000
$3,318.000
$1,124.000
$10,346.000
$25,017.000

Enterprise Products Partners L.P.


Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
Minority Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Capnal

$2,246.463
$0.000
$68.883
$0.000
$1200.904
$3.516.250

$855.278
$0.000
$11.716
$0.000
$1,146.922
$2,013.916

$404.000
$0.000
$9.570
$0.000
$935.959
$1,349.529

GulfTerra Energy Partners, L.P..


Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
Minority Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Capital

$1,906.286
$0.000
$1.942
$509.091
$440.761
$2,858.080

$820.000
$0.000
$0.000
$142.896
$357.830
$1,320.726

$538.000
$0.000
-$2.366
$0.000
$311.071
$846.705

Kinder Morgen, Inc.


Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
Minority Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Capital

$3,768.037
$0.000
$967.802
$0.000
$2,354.997
$7,090.836

$2,886.234
$423.785
$817.513
$0.000
$2,259.997
$6,387.529

$3,562.150
$100.000
$4.910
$0.000
$1.797.421
$5.484.481

Williams Companies
Long-Term Debt
ShortTerm Debt
Minority Inlerest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Cepital

$12,979.200
$934.800
$423.700
$271.300
$4.777.700
$19,386.700

$10,537.500
$1,424.500
$1,177.400
$0.000
$6,044.000
$19.183.400

$11 ,976.500
$2,075.900
$1,440.400
$189.900
$5,892.000
$21,574.700

EI Paso Corporation
Long-Term Debt
Short-Term Debt
Minority Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Capital
Enron Corporation
Long-Term Debt
Short Term Debt
Minority Interest
Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Total Capital

Source of Information:

Standard & Poo(s Compustat Services, Inc., PC Plus


Research Insight Data Base

Capital ~
!'orb

8aSGQ IIpoi'! T cui CaDitaiIor


EI PMoQCorp:ntlOn
Y.r5 2OOO!tImoo1l200Z
(in "'~Iions)

"'"

""FM!!~n.

ANR
Corn!!!?
L(II'Q-Term DellI
Short-TRim
Debt

~l24n
$S7.'"
SO.lXlO
SO.OOO

lnol1tl'~r-.t
Preferred Stock
ComI1'll)flE"QulIV
lotll Cl:plll!
CoIoradD

IlIleIAMe

----

""'-'"

I' 3611159
Comp!!!%'

Long-l flm\ DebI


8ho't-T..-m Debt
Mlnotitl~

$179.1516

SO 000
SO.OOO
SOOOO
ml.09ll

CommOllEqlll!y

ii D5b.912

Tll!lIlCipilal

B PMo N;IlunII GlI5


Long. T IImI DItJt
S'1or1.-T enn D8bI:

.....""

""''''
l6JO.825

BIG !l67

so.ooo

so.o>;

$, 257!l33

12051.'37

$2510.016

NA

....

la73.01
.".

SOlXlO
$0.0>;
S119H80

$230i6.p

COrnF!ny

'1,081..239
$0000

....,,,
so.""
so ""

eam-eo""
lotll c.pilal

"II/S.lee

~NiItuT1tolGuCornF!f!'f
LOflg-"1erm o.bI
Short-Term Debt
MInoI1ly IrDfeQ

sm....
SO.OOO
SOlXlO
SOIDl

comllU1 EQIMy

11013.05M

lotll CapItal

"810.@

T_
Gei5 Pie!Iin!
T IImI DItJt
Short-T.rrn o.bI
Mlnonl1lr11etw5i

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

SO.OOO
SO 000

$1108.6040

--

NA

.".",
SO 000

Equity

-_ .....

'"
'"
'"
'"
NA

liiAY.@

son..,

SOOOO
IOlXlO
SO 0>;

"""

SO.ooo
SO 000
SO 000

......, .....'"

CC!r!p!r!y

Florid. Gel Tr1I'IImtsslon


Lorg- T IImI o.tn
ShottT..",~
Minomy lm-rMI

$911.957

so."",
SO""
SO 000
$857.176

I, iti9 133

.....'"

SO.OOO

SO."
SO ..

'1tdl

1910'784
j()

...."'"

S&47.tIXl

SOlXlO
$0000

,rr.I<O'

'1 810401

....",
$O.lXlO
SO."'"
SO IDl

..

,."'",

5i jll1665

Cc:me?r
Sl,57U041

Long-

SO lXlO
SO lXlO
SO lXlO

Prllferr.:l SIock
ComI'rlOll Equity

,,362M4
55 939'2'

10llJ1C.pIlIIl

$2.llnS97
s.t23.931
SO 000
SOIDl

$2.m136
$215lXD

t3 JIB@!!

53 315.376

S1,Q2i.3ti8
Sl!l8.CS3

S1,316.0ll8
$150.526

""".

$O.lXlO
SOIDl
S383.2~

Avwalll fllr the Oper.ul'lg Ga. PlpeII,.


SoJt-id .....
CIIE1 Pno Com

-lono- Tem1 Debt

$8.48.394
'10521
SO.1Dl

Shor1. Twrn o.tc


MI~1rUnst

SO.0Il1
S99ll.916

Commo1""""
T "' .....

Ii Il5& 89,

"'"

En1eIpWt PrtIducts P8rnn LP

"'----

l..DrlR-T~OMIt

S2.l48.4l53

SbDrl Term o.tlI

$O.1Dl

"'8l!3
SO.1Dl

Common Equity
Tdill CIIpIaI

1'~.!"

11,&06.285

'"''

lC!talc..plDI

ComrTG'l

Docket No. P'{)3-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-3
Page 1 of 3

SOOOO
Sl.9C2
~.tJ'i,
""'.7l!1

VNi!!08b

SlxRIle r:l1rII:lrJnmxr.

~
~
~1IItd

SO ..
S0001
10.125
Ii ikJ S8lI

SO 000
SO 001

""'-$3'

i2 '511.'32

2001

2000

SO."",

..... 000
$0000

SO.OOO
111718
10.000

'"1l:l2

$'
'6013.916

""".000
so.ooo
SO 000
$lQ.M

SJ57.lllO

S'*l\!.t26

& Poon CCJmp.ldIII ~


migtII: OlD II-.
FER<: FcJrrm 2

.......
".570

SOOOO

113ig529

......

""'.1Dl
$01Dl

so 000

1311071

P'!JtB

1Ilc., PC PlIII

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-3
Page 20f 3
Cl.pal

&ruc!I.n 8aecl1IpUl TlDI CapitlIIllr


E~"",""""",
b 1M Y_II 2000 !brpygh
(In ITIiIlictnfJ

-....-

FIoriQII GaS T...-.smissKln


L...oro-TennDKt
5hor1-TIITIl DIltJl

Common Equity

Tom' CaPItal

-'*'

cap/tll

Tl1Inw..AIm Pi!?!!!iroeCornf!.ny
LDIlQ- Term DIItt
Shan-Term DIIbt

---"""",-

Conlmon Ec!1lily
"ft;Aal Ca,ag!

A-.ge
far the Qp8I1Illng GG
Sut~icli.n.. cJI EnI1ll1Corp

Long- ierm

No<
No<
No<
No<
No<

S8-47.lXXl

NA

NA

Ii 6700407

No<
No<
No<
No<
No<

No<
No<
No<
No<
NA

""'"
SO.'"
SO..,
$1 01~383

NA

NA

51 5\5.020

NA
NA
NA
No<
NA

No<
NA
No<
No<
No<

~1165.ot!lO

NA
No<
No<
No<
NA

No<
NA
NA
No<
NA

$38ll.71a

""

Pi~

Eiebl

6hor1-Term o.tt
MincIrIIy IntBr8It

"""""'" "'''''
, ..

""

""

Copilol

sm.""

SO..,

SO.'"
SO..,
SO.'"
57.7.717

i9,j HI}

pn;Iq

S>.'"
SO..,
SO.'"

"'''''1
j

5i 2tU

group '" 0- pipeline

Cl.pitlII SlnJctuq Baed upon Teal c.pt;Il for


K/njer~IrIc.
b .. Veer.!iDX! Itlrwgh m
millions)

rill

2001

Kinder Morgan InI8rstafII


Long-Term 0ItJt
S/lDn-Term o.tt
Minor1r)lllarwt

a.s TransmisliDn

.....

Common Equfty'
TDQI OIpjmI

11 C

....,
.......

SO000
SO.OOO

SO.'"
SO..,
SO..,

SO.ooo

SO.ooo

SO.'"

SO.OOO
$0178.67.

1.421.383

l&490

A-.gII for b ~ng


c;;.s P1~
Subsidilrt of KneW MoIp!r'!~.

821383

so...,
SO.OOO
so 000

........
@filii

SO.OOO

9PwwtJI~

SO..,
SO.OOO
""000
SO.'"
"'21.Jll3

Wi 3M

~&Prlar'.~~
R..-.rdI ......

o::.rc-r,. _

SOl.'"
SO.'"
SO..,

""

NA .. NCIt AppIa~ Q EnI1ll1Corp ... 1lDII. n-.mbw d Mr. ....,.-.


torI1pU\lIS In 2001 UCl 2002.

"'"

No<
No<
No<
No<
No<

ComF!ny

Common Equity
T

",,,

"'"

Company

MInlll'1tylnm~

l'bIIlem tall.l11l1 Gas


Long-Term 0etJl
Short TIITIl Debt
MllW:lI1tylnl8nst

200?

0ItI. a..
FERC fcmIs 2

SOooo
so..,
$Ol78674

so..,

so.ooo
SO....
SO.OOO
$0178.67.

SilAS,.

Inc.. PCPIl.-

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-3
Page 3 of 3

c..-. sncture

Bne:l ~ TlICaI CaJ:itaI b


'NJIIan Cas .. n:..
YfIIJ 2!XXl1M2'5'!! fW2

The
fDr

1M

(lnmillions)

""
""
""""
""
NA

Pip!li~ Cprporation
Dl!bt
Sllort-TBrm Deb!:
MInor1lyInterftt
Noru-t
Long..

-term

_p--

TaM; Gas Tl'iIl"lSl'I'IlA;cn


Lav-T.m DetI;
Short-Term Oebr

..

"".003
so 000
Sllooo
Sll.ooo

""'"

S5Hi.~21

&1.361

S8B3p2~

11'8.847

52.. .,.
Sll.ooo
Sll.ooo
"'.000

so.ooo
SllOOO
Sll.ooo

S",,,
..
it1!l.'3Oli
Ga PIP! line

--

_ ....

:174'.887

iiSi 881

F'!p!Ii~

SI17.':U2
1310.813

Sll.ooo
Sll.ooo
Sll.ooo

.......
i&iO 193
52......

$.474240

"'"'.000
000
"'
000
~.192

'Iii 1104,

SM6.412

Cop~

$1,080328

$1,123.147

"'''''

"'.000
SO.OOO
Sll.""

Sll.ooo
Sllooo

$1781.103

S1785.137

t2 B8i85b

t:! 86!1 WI

$973.1<13

"'"'.000
000

"'000
S16322111

!2!i05.'362

Cen!r.ll Jne.

$11.'-59:2
Sllooo
Sll.""
Sll""

S1704li6l1

Long- T""" Debt


Shorl- Term Oetc

$3.""

"'SO.ooo
000

MII'lOnty~
CommDllEquity

TOIII,Q1p/t1l
Averag.1Df Ibe~
G-. ~
Subslcllo1~ CII The Wilil.1T\t. Oz
Long- TIlITI\ 08b1
Shart- T erm DebI
Minority InIItrwt

--

..

""'
...
S!>IiS&\
$.178.545

SO.""
SOOOO
SllOOO

....
""'---

Net AppIic:atal. KIm R;Co5.. InI;:. In 2002.


~d~

0. ll'al'lSllllSo$i

COrnI*'Y _

$ATe.1Sl'1

.." ...

Ii b7!!8!
IICIlI$

"'$0.000
.000

S'2l3O.180

""'.'"

Sl/1317-t

111.528
"'000

S,.,,'"
U5lI!92
so.""
SO.ooo
Sll.""

'12921t8

TOlIIl~

NA"

5Ubf,id ..

StardIn:I&Poor'sCornpusZll~
R.-ch might DIIIIiI
~1iIlId
FERCForna 2

a.e

""'.526
Sllooo
Sll.OOO
Sllooo
5226.816

Capol'8lion

Commorl E!:ltMy
TallilCllpltal
W~lillms GA

Sll.ooo
Sll.ooo
Sllooo

Sll.ooo
Sll.ooo
Sll.ooo

Coml'llOl'lEQuity
loti! C.pitli

Tl'llIl!continlintal
Long-Term o.bl
Sho1-T.-m o.tt
MillOnt\<l*'-t

"""

S5100c0

"".""

Comman Equity
TCItIIIClpllal

,a"

2002

9?rT!f!o!t

KernRiIter Gas T~
LOI'Ill""'1Tl OetJt
sr.orl-T.rm Dllbt
Minonty1m"
Preferr.::l SIoOd<
Common EQUity
10lIl1 CIIpftal

142165

SO.OOO
SO.OOO
SllOOO
S8W.3!i1
51 d5B8iJ

ry d The WIIIIIITIIo

Inc., f'CPIuf,

Docket No. P-D3-4


WORKPAPERS

to FJH-4

(Consisting of Wor1<papers # 1 - 2)

Docket No. P-OJ-4


Workpaper # 1to FJH-4
Page 1 of 15

Calculation

Buckeye Partners L.P.


of the Composite Cost Rate of long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2002

Actual tOf the Year Ended December

31 2002
Comp05ite
Interest

Rate

Series
6.98% Series 1997A due December
6.89% Series 19978 due December
6.95% Series 1997C duo Decomber
6.96% Series 19970 due December
Credit Agreemerd due September 5,
(variable rates)

16, 2024
16. 2024
16, 2024
16, 2024
2006

Notes:

Source of Information:

(1) Weighted average inlerest rate 01 December 31. 2002.

2002 Form 1()..K

Docket No. P~3-4


Work paper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 2 of 1S

Calculation

Buckeye Partners L.P,


of the Composite Cost Rate of Long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2001

Actuellor

the Year Ended December

31 2001
Effective

Amount
Outstanding
($ 000s)

Series
6.98% Series 1997A due December
6.89% Series 19978 due December
6.95% Series 1997C due December
6.96% Series 19970 due December
Credit Agreement due Sep1ember 5,
(variable rates)

16, 2024
16,2024
16, 2024
16, 2024
2006

Notes:

Source of Information:

(1) Weighted

Rate (1)

100.000
10,000
5.000

6.98
6.89
6.95
6.96

133,000

3.05 (1)

125,000

373,000

average interest rate at December

2001 Fonn 1D-K

Annualized
Cos1
($ 000s)

Cos1

'"

8,725
6.890
695
348

20,715

4.057

31, 2001.

Composite
Interest
Rale

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 3 of 15

Calculation

Buckew Partnen> L.P.


of the Composite Cost Rate of Long-Term Debl Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2000

Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2000

Amou",
Series

Outstanding
($llOOs)

6.98%. Series 1997A due December 16, 2024


6.89% Series 19978 due December 16,2024
6.95% Series 1997C due December 16, 2024
6.96% Series 1997D due December 16,2024
Credit Agreement due December 16, 2003
(variable rates)

100,000

10.000
5,000
43,000

Noles:

Source of Information:

125,000

(1) Weighted

Effective
Cos1
Rate (1)

6.98 %
6.89
6.95
6.96

8,725

6,690
695
348

7.21

283,000

average interest rate al December

2000 Form 1D-K

Annualized
Cos1
($llOOs)

3,'00
$

31, 2000.

19.758

Composite
Interest
Rale

Docket No. P-OJ-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 4 of 15

Calculation

Enbridge Energy Partners L,P.


of the Composite Cost Rate of Long-Term

Debt Outstanding

Actual for the Year Ended December

31 2002

Actual for tile Year Ended December

31 2002

Annualized

Composite
Interest

Rate

Effective

Amount
Outstanding

Series

Cost

Rate (1)

($ 000s)

($ 000s)
First Mortgage

Notes
Senior Unsecured Notes, Net
Three-year Term Facility
Total long-Term

Source of Information:

$ 1,042,400

Debt

Notes:

279,000
299,400
252,000
212,000

(1) Weighted averageinterest rate.

2002 Annual

Report to Shareholders

9.150
7.342
2.810
2.280

% (1) $
(1)
(1)
(1)

25,529
21,982
7,081
4,834

59,428

5.70

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 5 of 15

Enbridge

Energy Partner.> L.P,

Calculation of the Composite Cost Rate of long-Term

31 2001

Actual for the Year Ended December

31 2001

Amount

Outstanding
(S 00(5)

Series

First Mortgage Notes


Revolving Credit Facility Agreement
Senior Unsecured Notes, Net
Total long-Term

Debt

Notes:

Source of Information:

Debt Outstanding

Actual for the Year Ended December

310,000
137,000
299,400

746,400

(1) Weighted average interest rate.

2001 Annual Report to Shareholders

Effective
Cost

Composite
Annualized

Cost
(S 000s)

Rate (1)

9.150
5.300 (1)
7.342 (1)

"

28,365
7,261
21,982

57,608

Interest

Rate

7.n "

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 6 of 1S

Lakehead

Calculation

Pipe Line Partners loP,


Cost Rate of long- Tenn Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2000

of the Composite

Actual for the Year Ended December

31 2000

Effective
Amount
Outstanding

Series

Cost

Annualized
Cost

Rale (1)

($ ODDs)
First Mortgage Noles
Revolving Credit Facility Agreement
Senior Unsecured
Notes, Net
Total Long-Term

Debt

Notes:

Sour~

of Information:

3'0.000
'90.000
299,300

Rate

($ ODDs)
9.150

'lI>

28.365
11,780
2'.975

62.120

6200
7.342

799,300

(1) Weighted average interest rate.

2000 Annual Report to Shareholders

Composite
Interest

(Lak~head)

(')

7.77

'lI>

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 7 of 15

Kaneb Pipe Line Partners l.P.


Calculation of the Composite Cost Rate af Long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended Decembel 31 2002

Actu:!lll for the Year Ended December 31 2002

Series
Revolving aedlt facility - due January 2004
7 75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2012
Bridge Facility due January 2004
Term Loan due January 2004
Total Long-Term Debt

Source o1lnlormalion.

Amount
Outstanding
($ ODDs)
$

243,000
250,000
175,000

26330
$

694,330

2002 Form 1D-K

ERective
Cost
Rate (1)
2.1BO

AnnualIZed
Cost
($ OOOs)
%

7.750
2670
7.250

Composite
Interest
Rate

5,297
19,375
4,673

'909
31,254

450 %

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 8 of 15

Kaneb Pipe line Partners L.P.


Calculation of the Composite Cost Rate 01 Long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2001

Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2001

Series
Revolving credit facility - due December 2003
Term Loan due January 2002
Total Long-Term Debt

Source of Information:

Amount
Outstanding
($ 000s)
$

238,900
23,724

262,624

2001 Form lo-K

Effective
Cost
Rate (1)
2.690
7250

Annualized
Cost
($ 000s)
%

6,426
ll20

8,146

Composite
Interest
Rale

3.10

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 9 of 15

Kaneb PiPe Line Partners l.P.


Calculation of the Composite Cost Rate of long Term Debt Outstanding

Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2000

Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2000

Amount
Series

Outstanding

Etrective
Cos1

Annualized

Rat.11l

Cost
(S COOs)

($ 0(00)

First Mortg:Zlge Noles due 2001


Revolving credit.facility - due January 2001
Term Loan due January 2002

128,000
15,000
23,900

Total Long-Tenn Debt

166,900

Notes:

Source of Information:

8.050
7.910
7.140

%
(1)

10,304
1,187

13,197

Composite
Interest
Rete

1,706

(1) Assumed equal to the composite debt cost rate of all debt under the revolving
credit facility at December 31. 2000.

2000 Form 1O-K

7.91 %

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 10 of 15

Calculation

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners L.P.


of the Composite Cost Rate of Long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2002

Actual for the Year Ended December

31 2002

Effective
Amount

Outstanding

Series

Annualized

Cost

Rate

(1)

($ llOOs)

6.30% Senior Notes due 2009


8.00% Senior Notes due 2005
7.50'% Senior Notes due 2010

6.75% Senior Notes due 2011


7.40%
7.84%
7.125%
7.75%
7.30%
5.35%

Senior Notes due 2031


Senior Notes due 2008
Senior Notes due 2012
Senior Notes due 2032
Senior Notes due 2033
Senior Notes due 2007

10.1% Series F First Mortgage Nofes


Commercial Paper
Tax-exempt bonds
Revolving Credit Facility
New Jersey EDA Bonds
Other

$ 3.659.533

Total Long- Term Debt

Notes:

(1)

Assumed

equal to the composite

December

Source of Information:

250,000
200,000
250,000
700,000
300,000
30,000
450,000
300,000
500,000
250,000
37.100
220.000
23,700
31.000
25,000
92.733

2002 Form 1D-K

31. 2002.

Composite
Interest
Rete

($llOOs)

6.300
8.000
7.500
6.750
7.400
7.8400
7.1250
7.7500
7.3000
5.3500
10.700
2.659
1.590
2.875
1.050
6.696

'llo

15,750
16,000
18,750
47.250
22,200
2,352
32.063
23.250
36.500
13,375
3.970
5.849

3n

891
263
6209

(1)
$

245,049

debt cost rate of all debt excluding

6.70

-other" at

'llo

Docket No. P-03-4


Work paper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 11 of 15

Kinder Morgan Energy

Partners

L.p.

Calculation of the Composite Cost Rate of Long- Tenn Debt Outstanding


Actual for the Year Ended December

31 2001

Actual for the Year Ended December

31 2001
Effective

Amount

Outstanding
($ 000s)

Series

6.30% Senior
8.00% Senior

Notes due 2009


Notes due 2005

7.50% Senior Notes due 2010


6.75% Senior
7.40% Senior

Nates due 201 1


Notes due 2031

7.84% Senior Notes due 2008


Floating

Rate Senior Notes due 2002

10.7% Series F Rrst Mortgage


Commercial Paper
Tax-exempt bonds
Revolving Credit Facility
New Jersey EDA Bonds

Notes

Other

Total Long-Term Debt

Notes:

250,000
200,000
250,000
700,000
300,000
35,000
200,000
79,600
590,503
23,700
55,000
25,000
162,990

$ 2,791,793

(1)
(2)

Annualized

Composite
Interest

Rate

Cost
($ 000s)

6.300 %
8.000
7.500
6.750
7.400
7.84D
3.1025 (1)
10.700
2.659
1.700
2.875
1.391
5.739 (2)

15,750
16,000
16,750
47,250
22,200
2,744
6,205
8,517
15,699
403
1,581

348
9,354
$

164:801

AveragClinterest rate.
Assumed

equal to the composite

December 31, 2001.

Source of Information:

Cost
Rate (1)

200t Form 1().K

debt cost rate of all debt exclUding "other- at

5.90

'llo

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 12 of 15

Calculation

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners L.P


of the Composite Cost Rate 01 Long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended Det:ember 31 2000

Actual for the Year Ended December

31 2000
Effective

Amount
Series

Composite

Cost

Annualized

Rate (1)

Outstanding

Cost
($ 000s)

($ 000s)
$

Credit Facility
6.30% Senior Notes due 2009
8.00% Senior Notes due 2005
7 .SO% Senior Notes due 2010
Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2002
10.7% Series F First Mortgage Notes
8.03" $en;OI Secured Notes
Commercial
Paper

3.4" Tax-exempt bonds


Total long- Term Debt

Notes:

$ 1,904,500

7.115
6.300
8.000
7.500
7.385
10.700
8.030
7.020
5.000

"(1)

(2)

56,180
15,750
16,000
18,750
14,770
12,733
1,622
3,650

'.'85

140,640

7.38

(1) Average interest rate.


Assumed eqIJal to the composite debt cost rate of a\l debt under the floating rate
senior notes at December 31. 2000.

(2)

Source of Information:

789.600
250,000
200,000
250,000
200,000
119,000
20,200
52,000
23,700

Interest
Rate

2000 Form 1o-K

"

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 13 of 15

TEPPCO Partners L.P


Calculation of the Composite Cost Rate of long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2002

Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2002

Series
6.45% Senior Notes due 2008
7.51% Senior Notes due 2028
7.625% Senior Notes due 2012

Amount
Outstanding
($ 000s)

432,000

Three Year Credit Facility


Total Long-Term Debt

Source of Information:

180.000
210.000
500,000

S 1.322,000

2002 Form 10-K

Effective
Cost
Rate (1)

6.450
7.510
7.625
2.500

Annualized
Cost
($ 000s)

11,610
15,771
38.125
10.800

76,306

Composite
Interest
Rate

5.77

'llo

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 14 of 15

TEPPCO Partner5 l,P.


Calculation of the Composite Cost Rate of Long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2001

Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2001

Series
6.45%
7.51%

Senior Notes due 2008


Senior Notes due 2028

Amount
Outstanding
($ COOs)
$

180,000
210,000
:>10,700

730,700

Three Year Credit Facility


Total Long-Term Debt

Source of Information:

2001 Form 1D-K

Eft'ective
Cost
Rate (1)

6.450
7.510
2.900

Composite
Annualized
Cosl
($ 000s)
$

11,610
15,771
9,_

37.261

Interest

Rate

5.10 ...

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-4
Page 15 of 15

TEPPCO Partne~
Calculation

L.P.

of the Composite Cost Rate of long-Term Debt Outstanding


Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2000

Actual for the Year Ended December

31 2000

Effective

Amount
Outstanding

Series

Cost
Rate (1)

Annualized

Cost

Total Long Term Debt

Source of Information:

180.000
210.000
446,000

836,000

2000 Form 10-K

Rate

($ DOCs)

($ DOCs)
6.45% Senior Notes due 2008
7.51% Senior Notes due 2028
Revolving Credit Facility

Composite
Interest

6.450
7.510
8.230

11.610
15.771
36,706

64.087

7.67

'!<o

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 1 of 16

A.mount

2001
S 2.2045.cm,cm

Ntteri

"'"

854.00:UDJ

.'"

COOl

AW!9
S 1,5oI9,500.tXXl

2002 InlerMl: Paid


$

656 "4

101,580,00J

(1) ElledM!' COIIt rwte r:J IcJr'O-ferTn detlI delr:rminm by dMding /ntereSI pIIiclln 2002 by the lWenIge
the beglnn~ and .-.:ll~ I:IIIlIc';nes r::A IcrQ-tImI debt WICIIU5e tiler .. tnsuIIlcienllnfDrrn.uon tD
OlIIculiJle I CCfI1POIJM IIfta::tMl
d ltI1g-Ienn debl: by IIerieL

ooc"

.....-

Q.rl!tpnou)!!

Docket No. P'{):l-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 2 of 16

GullTemI EOP!JN F"nnP!l LP '1J


GaIcuIBtJOn cllhe Compcl5ile COIl: R_ cl Long-Term DI!l:t ~
Ac1L.Blltlr the
E!'1drd Oeaember 31 2001 pod p..e.mbe! 31

Yenr

Actual fpr the Veer Ended ~beI'

AfTOJI"I

31 2001

0ut!b!rId!p

'0')1
S

538,000,000

t.dJ&'!1Dr ~

Notes:

820,000,000

YMr

820,000,000

'''''''

679,000,000

20011~PIIicl

43,130,000

635 ""

83,4904,000

6.13 ~

EndAO [)eoemb!:!' 31 2002

S 1,906,285,000

I l,363,lC,OOO

11) F~

EI P.cI EI"IeflWPl!1'1renI, LP.


cwr .... d ll:Jng-I8m1 wbf delerrnned tI'{ dIwlcIif1j &rUn!C peid bf the ~
begning lInd ending ~
oIlcrQ-tem'l debt YI!OD~ ther. ~
~
CIIk:UIlIte II cunpolllr elJec::l:Ne CUll me cllong-tefTTI dett bf Ieries

(2) EIlwldM!

SOUt:e

2002

cllnforma1ion. 2001 IIIld 2002 Farm lQ-K

r:l1he

to

Docket No. P~3-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 3 of 16

AN R
Calc:ubdion

01 the Composile

ActIJllI for tlw Vear Ended

Doc:ember 31 2001

Actual fOf 1M Y..,. Ended

Dec:tmb!r

......
9.625 .. Dlibentures
7.375% Debentum

""""''''

Outstanding

dIM 2021
duo 202.111

7.lJO'II' Noces da. 2025

Total lMg-Term

o.bI

Source of 11"IfDrtnWon: 2001 FERC Form 2

Patine Cornpanv
Cosl: Rate 01 long- Term Debt OutstInding

300.000,000
12S,OOO,OOO
7S 000000
&Xl 000 000

31 2001
Ell......
Cool

....
9.625
7.375
7.000

,-

Com .....
Annualirecl

R...

Cool

"

28,875,000
9,218.750
250 000

13 343

7SO

8.67

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 4 of 16

CoIor;!do Inlertate Cormany


Calculation of the Ccmp06i1e Cost Rate of Long- ierm Debt OutslBndil'lg
Actual to!" the '(ear EMtd Qe:gembet 31 2001

ActLl81

for the Ynr Endf!:d

S._
10.()QIJ(aDebentUreS due 2005

Amour<

outstanding
$

ToIaJ Long- Term Debt

Solxce of Information:

180.000,000

100000000

6.65% Notes due 2037

Drcembrf

2IXrI FERC Form 2

280 000000

31

2001

Effective
Cool
Rote

10.000 'lI>
6.850

AnnualiZed
Cost

18,0:0.000
6850000

24 B50 fX(l

8.88 'lI>

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 5 of 16

E1 Paso Natural Gn

CO!!P!lrN

CalcU8tion of the Composite Cost Rite at Long- Term Debt Out&tending


Actual tor the YeeT?iEnded

Actual for the

Pftoember

31

20QQ pnd

vear Ended ~r

31

31 2001

2000

Effecti't'e
AmounI
Sorios

7.5 116Debentures due 2025


e &all. Debenture& due 2022
6.75% Notes due 2003
7.7Mb Noteadue2002
Tom! Long.. Term Debt

""""'"""'"

200,000,000

7.500

260,OOO.OOCI

6.625
6.750
7.750

200,000,000
215000,000

AMuaflZtld

Cool
Rete

Cool

"

P-rmber

3'

7.5lJfl Dre:bentures due ~


8518% Debenture& due 2012
6.7511. Notel due 2Cm
7.75% Notes due 2002

Total Long- Term Debt

Source

or Information:

87587 500

2001

e_
Series

15,000,000

Z2,42S,OOO
13,500.000
15,662 500

875000,000

Ae:tual lor It1f' YM! EndI!!!d

Amount

Cost

_..-

Outstanding

R...

Cool

200,000,000
260,000,000

7.500
8.625

2OO,lXD,OOO

6.750

215000000

7.750

875000000

2000 and 2001 FEF{C Form :2

..

15,000,000
22,425,000
13,500,000

67,5B7,SOO

7.72 ...

,-

eomposlte

Rol.

16662500

7.n

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 6 of 16

Florida Gas T ransrnissi:Jn


Calculation cfthe Composite Cost Rate or Long- Tam Debt Outstanding
Actual for the YNni

Ended D8CI!mber 31 2000 end December 31 2001

Actual fer thl! Veer Ended December 31

2OCX?

Com_

EffecINe
AmounI
Outstanding

Senes
$elies B Sena Notes due 2008
Series C Senior Notts due 2003
8.63% senior Notes due 2004
9.19% Senior Noles due 2024
7.625% Senior Notes due 2010
Total Long- Tenn Deb!:

52,000,000
70,000,000
250,000,000
150,000,000
325000,000

Cool
Role
9.750
10.110

AnnuoJized
Cool

"

8.630
9.190

7.6:25

24.781,250

Adl..81 for the Year Ended December 31 2001

E_
50nes
B Senior Notes due 2008
C Senior Notes due 2CXJ3
Senior Notes due 2004
Senior Noles due 2024
7.625'*- Senior Nota due 2010
Series I Senior Nctes

Series
Series
8.63%
9.19%

T wi L.onp-- Tenn Oebl

45,500,000
70,000,000
250,000,000
150,000,000
325,000,000
74,700,000

915,200,000

9.750
8.630
9.190

7.625
3.150

8.53 "

Composite

An_

Cool
Rate

10.110

RBle

5,070,000
7,077,000
21,575,000
13,785,000

S 72,288,250

847,00(1,000

Amour<
Outstanding

Inlesesl

Cosl

"

4,436,250

RBIe

7,077,000
21,575,000
13,785,000
24,781.250
2,353,050

S 74007550

8.09

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper II 2 to FJH-4
Page 7 of 16

Southern Natural Gas Company


Calculation of the Composite Cost Rate of l.or1J-lerm Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Yeal'5 Ended December 31 2000 and De.=ember 31 2001

Actual

'or the Year

Ended December 31 200Cl

E_
Amoun1
Clutstan<ina

Sones
8.875% Notes due 2001
8.625% Notes due 2002
7.85% Notes due 2002
8.7O'lloNotes due 2007
8.125% NaIes due 2008
Tetal Long-Term Debt

100,OOO,CXXJ
100.000,000
100,000,000
'00,000,000
100,000000

5OO,OOO,CXXl

ActuBI fa: rhfo Veer Ended Pfcenbtr

C~
Annualized
Cost

Coot
Rate
8.875
8.625
7.850
8.700
6.125

8,875,000
8,625,000
7,850,000
8,700,000
6,125,000

38,'75,0CK)

Series

7.35% Bonds d~ 2031


8.625% Notes due 2002
7.85% Noles due 2002
8.70% NOles due 2007
8.125% N_
duo 2008
T ct!Il Long-Term Debt

Scut:e

at Jnfotmldjon:

2(XX)

3JO,OOO.0IXl
100,000,000
100.00J.OOO

7.350
8.625
7.850

100,CXXl,OXI

8.700

8.125

IWld 2X>1 FERC Farm 2

7.64 'Il.

,-

Ccmpos;te

Coot
Rate

100.000.000
700,000 000

Rate

31 2001

e_
Amoun1
Outstanding

Interest

Annualized
Cost
$

22,050,000
8,625,000
7,850,000
8,700,000
6.125.000

51,350000

Rate

7.34

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 8 of 16

Tennessee

Gas Pioe!ine Company

Calculation of the Composite Cost Rate of Long-Term ~

Actual tor the Year Ended December

6% Series Debentures due 2011


7% Series Debenhns due 2O'Z7
7% Series Debentures due 202B
7.5% Series Debentures
due 2017
7.625% Series Debentures due 'ZO:IT
Advances from Associated Companies

Totallong- Term Debt

Actual

Advances from Associated

6.000 %
7.000
7.000
7.500
7.625
7.180 (1)

2.839,833.515

December

"""'"'"

85.792.000
300.000.000
400,000.000
300,000,000
300.000,000

2,892,807 446

CompIlnies

1,507,015445

T Clta' Long. Term Debt

5,147,520
21.000.000
28,cm,lXXl

22.500.000
22.675.000
104.400.161
$ 203.922 701

Outstanding

6% Series Debentures dUll 2011


7% Series Debentures due 2O'Zl
7% Series Debentures due 202B
7.5% Series Debentures due 2017
7.625% Series Debentures due 2037

Annualized
Cost

Role

85.792.000
300.000.000
400.000.000
300.000.000
300.000.000
1454.041.515

for the Veer Ended

Serioo

31 2lXX)

Effective
Cost

Amount
OUtstandina

Series

Outstanding

Actual forth.:: Yeal'5 Ended December 31 2000 and [)eoe.m~r 31 2001

NcIos: (1) AssunodoqlJllllo","~


__
compIIINes at December 31. 2CXXl.

E_

7.18 '"

31 2lXt!

6000 %
7.000
7.000
7.500
7.625
7.180 (2)

,.......

Compoo;le

Annua_

Cost
Rot.

Cost

R.te

5.147.520
21.000,000
28,000,000
22,500,000
22.675.000
100203,709

S 207,726.229

718 "

"'oIoll_eduding-"""""'_

(2) Assuned equal to the composile debt cost rate dill debl: IXCIuding advances from essociated
complllnie811t December 31, 2001.

Sou~ of InfortnBtion:

2(X)J.oo 2001

FERC

Form 2

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 9 of 16

Northern Natural Gas Company


Calculaticn

of the Composite Cost Rate of Long-Term Debt Outstanding


Acb.Jiii for Ihe Year Ended Oec&mber 31 2000

Actual for the Year Ended

Deoember

31 2000

E_
Amc>.Jnl
Ol.otsmnding

Serie5
8.000% Ser1Cr Notes due 1999
B,B7511MoSenior Notes due 2005
6.750% Senior Notes due 2CIC.6
Tetal Long- Tenn Debt

Source of lnfollll&l:io ..:

S
S

250,000,000
100.000,000
150.000.000

500000,000

200Cl FERC Form 2

Composito

Cost
Rote
8.000
6.875
6.750

Annualized
Coot

20,000,000
6,875,000
10125.000

37,OOO,QCX)

lnl8rest
Rote

7.40 ..

Docket No. P-'l3-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 10 of 16

calculation

I[JnSW!S!;em Pjoe!ine ldmpmy


the CornpoM. Cost Ret. '" Long- Term Debt 0UtsbInling
Ad,gLfor the Y_ Ended Qtcembar 31 2mQ

or

......

AmounI

7.040% PnImIssory Note due 2004


9.20% Srils B Senior Notw due 2004
TotaIlDng-

Term

Debf.

"""""'"'"

150.CXJO,OOO
15 -4SO 000

165 0450000

Source c:l11'l1ormlljon: 2000 FERC Form 2

........

....

Annuallmd
Coot

Cool

7 lO

..200

11.100,000
1421400
125210400

7.57

'"

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 11 of16

Kjrdlrr Morg!n

MUll! for

DebenW,.

Ac!IIII for II"

6.5()'11,Series DebentuUt5 due 2013


7,85% S.rin Cebtrntur .. dUll 2022
8.75% s.r-. Deb6ntu1lll5 dUll M24
7.35% Series DebwrtU1'85 due 2026
!i.67'" s.n- DetMtntUf811 due 2027
7.25% Series DIbIII'IIUJW due 2028
7.0lil5'"~
Debentullll5 due 2098
8.35'" &triM; Sinking Fund DeberIbses due 2022
7.27'" SerW; Senior ~
duIt 2OIJ2
8.45'" S.,.,. Senior Noles duIt 2003
!i.55"" Serie5 Senior ~
due 2005
8.80"" $e_ Senior NtUr. due 2008
Fbting RaW Notaa due 2002

--

50,000,000
24.C25,OOCl
75,000,000
125,000,000
150,000,000
493,000,000
150,000,000
35,000,000
5,000,000

5OO,ooo.aoo

Debl:

: (1)
(2)

(3)

500,000.000
JIXl,ooo,OOO
200,000,000
12350000

....
i.B2S

0.350
6.7270
6.450
6.650
6.000
0"'"
. 110 Il)

0Cl0

""'-'fmg

.....

13617

Cool

3f!1560000

Y1l;" ENIM! [)!c!mbpr

Series

TllIIaI Long-Term

6_
7.050
11.750
7.350
6.!70
7250
7.450

50,000,000
24,943,000
75,000,000
125,000,000
150,000.000
493,000,000
l!!1O,CIOO,OOO
20,000.000
-45,000,000
35,000,000

10,OOO,DOO
500,000.000
500,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000

Tatallong- TMII 0ebI:

An ........

Coot
Ra!!

10,000,000

"'10.,

"""'-...

EfJediwt

Outsbtnding

6.50'" Sofiee Debcrdlll'll8 due 2013


7.85'110Series DebentUI1l$ due 2022
1!I.7S'" Strn. DebentUrM due 2024
7.35" series DebenhJrea due 2026
6.57'" Series Debentures du8 2027
7.25% SerieS
due 2028
7.-45'11. s.n- Debel'ltUrM dull 2098
9.95% Serin Sinking Fund Debenture. due 2020
IU125" Series Sird:tng Fund DlItJenturM due 2021
8.35% Serie& Sinll:ing fund Debentura dUB 2022
6.<45'" Seri8I Senior,... Owe 2001
7.27'11 Serie5 Senior Net. due 2002
6.45" Seria Senior Nafes due 2OCl3
&.65'110Seris 5enIor Nates due 2005
8.80'110 Series SemQr Nd;_ due 2008
Reset Pu1 Socuritle5.ll.3CWo dUll 2021

"'-

--

the V- Enl!!!d December 31 2O!XI

..-

Inc

Cg:lc:uI8Iion of the ConJP(II5Ile Co5t Rote 01 Long-Term Deb Outstanding


Actual for th, Yeara Endtd QeoImbM 31 2000 and O!qmbm 31 2001

31

Role

3,25D,000
l,951l,C126
6,582,500
9,187,500
10,005,000
35,742,500
11,175,000
lJ19O,OOO
4,331,250
2,022"'"
25,&40,000
727,000
32,250,000
33,250,000
20,400,000
25,200.000
934'26
225725J2

6.86 %

2QQ1

-."'" ..
Cool

7.650
USO
7.350
!i.670
7250
7.450
0.350
7270
'.450
... 50

'.IlOO

......
3_

(2)
(3)

2.8111375,000

'*' C("

.......
....

CompooIlo

Eftllld.lw

AI1n~1ized

Cool
3,250,000
1,885,1&

......"'"

St,187,500
10,OQfi.ooa
35,70112,5lX!
11,175,000
2,022"'"
3lI3,OOO
32,250,000
33,250,000
20,400,000
8,780,000
82370lil5

208

170lil-

.67 ..

Aaurned ....
Io .. ClQII'IPClde debt CIDCI
debl a:::Iu*ID rde .......
DecernbM" 31, 2OCO
FtlIIIing R.-e ....
dlIII20D2 beQr ~ .......
me III the 3-mmth London ~
0hr.:I Rni (l.IK)R) pM SI5 .....
poinII;, wtaidl on Odober 12, 2001,.
1M time .. ncM
weq 1DuecI, _
2.44%. Thus 3.39'llo. 2.44%'" 0.15%.
Aaurned ~_ to 1M campocIIe debt c:om ..... at ... deblllll:Clucing rde ~
et
IJecember 31, 2001
The

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 12 of 16

Kem River Gas Tnmamitsqllnc


Calculation of the Compolite eo.t Rate of Long.Term Debt Outstanding
Actual IOf the Yeara Ended Qegember 31 2000 ,00 [)ecember 31 2001

Actual for Ih!:

Sen ..
6.42'" Series A senior Notes due 2001
6.n% sene. B senior NOles due 2001

TraI L.ong-- T I!lrm Debt

Vetr Ended December

31

2COO

Amount

Effecttve
Cool

outslilndina

Rat.

25.824,500
434 701 ,OCIJ

6.420

B.720

'or the Year

Ended J'leqmber

31 2M1

En_
So ....

6.676'" Senee B Senior Notes due 2016


Total Long-Term Debt

8olm:eo oIln10nnati0n:

Amou ..
Outstanding
$ 510000000
$ 510,OIXI.OOO

2000 and 2001 FERC Fewm 2

..

Coot

Rot.
6.676

Inte<ee1

Rot.

1,657,933
29211,907

$ 30,869,840

$ 460,525,500

Actual

Composite
Annualiztod
Coot

Coot

6.10

Com .....

Int.....

Rote

34047.600

$ 34.047,600

6.68 ""

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 13 of 16

Northwest Pipeline Corp.


Calculation 01 the Composite Cost Rate of Long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Years Ended Dtc:ember 31 2000 and December 31 2001

Actual fur h

SeriM
9.CIO% SerieS B DeberrbJres due 2002
6.625'% Debentures due 2007
7.125% Debentures due 2025
Adj~bIe Rate Notes due 2002
Total Long- Term Debt

E_

Year Ended December 31

Amount

Cost

01Jtsta1ldinq

R ....

32,867,000
250,000,000
65,000,000

371,196,000

3,329 000

2CKXl

9.000
6.625
7.125
9.000

..

Annualized
Cost
$

2,958,030
16,562,500
6,056,250
299 610

$ 25,676,390

6.97

..

Actual lor the Year Ended December 31 2001

Ann ......
Cost

Amount
OlJtstwlding
9.00% Series B Debentures due 2002
6.625% Debentures due 2007
7.125%

Debentur8&

32,867,000
250,000,000
65 000000

3157,867,000

due 2025

Total Long- Tann Debt

Scun:o of 1_,

2000and 2001FERCFarm2

9.000
6.625
7.125

..

C"'InIB_
RBt8

2,958,030
16,562,500
6,056,250

S 25.576,780

6.95 ..

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 14 of 16

Texas Gas Trans.rrissim

Cap.

Calculation of the Composite Cost Rete crf long- Term Debt Outstanding
Adual for fl1e Year!; Ended December 31 2000 Ilrd Decembl!r 31 2001

Actual for the Veer Ended [)ecember

31 2000

Annualized

,......

Cost

RBI.

Composile

Effeotiye

Amou ..
Series

7.25% Debentu ..

due 2!J27

Outstancfl!lljl

100,000,000
150000,000

250,=,=

8.625% Notes due 2004

Total Long-Term Debt

Cost
Rale

7.250
8.625

"

7,250,000
12937,500

$ 20,187,500

8.06 "

Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2001

7.25% Debentures due 2f1Z7


B.6259f1 Notes due 2004
Total Long-Term Debt

100,=,=
150 OCXI,OOO

250,=,000

Soun:o 01'_

2000,2001 and 2002FERCForm2

Annualized

Cool
Rale

7.250
8.625

,-

Composite

Effec:tiw
Am<>.Jnt
Outstanding

Coot

"

RBI.

7,250,000
12.937,500

S 20,187,500

8.06 "

Docket No. P-n3-4


Work paper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 15 of 16

Transcontinental Gas Pice Ljne ComcntIon


Cak:uIatim Of the CompociteC05t R2teof lDng-lenn Detf Dut5tanding
Actual for the Yein Ended Q!!otmber 31 2001 i!nd Il!!cembe131 2001

......

""""'"

outstandjng

7.08% Oebenl:l.ft due 2025


7.25'" DebentUre due 2026
Nate AdwInc:e PIne Needle Openrting
Co.
Note Adv;lInoe - Tl'iIIl15C8rolil'1illNG Co.
Nole AcMInc:e - Cardinal Opeming Co.
Nate AdvanC:e - Tranacardinal Co.
Note AdvanCe - Marsh Resources, Inc.
Nate ADlance - IfICIe1leI idellOt: Opeming Co.
Nole AdvanCe T IWIICO Ii ldepei idenoe PIpetme Co.
Nc:te ~.
Cumbet1and 0peI3lIng Co.
Note ActYance - Trans Cumbertancl ptpeIine CO.
NCCe AcMInce - Croa Bey 0penIting Co.
Nole Advance - Tl1Inaco Croea Bay Co.
8 718% Notes d'Uf: 2002
6 1/8% Hotel due 2005
6 1/4% Ncte& clue 20ClB
Adjulllable Eurodollar Rmo Note due 200'2

Actual

fq

tM

......
- caro..I 0pemW1g Co.
Tl'1IInacan:ll.,. Co.
- MarWI R~.
Inc.
Iiodepc: Idei ... 0perwti:rlQ Co.
- Trw:nac:oIn.
iidtalCe Pipeline Ca.
- CUrnbertancl ()per.tIng Co.
- T .... CUrntetand
PipeIne Co.

H"'_-e.-IlIy~Co,
H............ T..... e.-BoyCO.
8 718% Nl:its ckae 2002
6 1,,", NatM due 2005
e 1/4'10 Not_ cNe 200B
AdjuI;tabIe EUI"OdoOIrRIIte Note cU 2002
7.00'10 Nctea due 2011
Total

Long-Term

Coot

Rate

"

7,SlXI,OOO
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
125,OXI,CIXl
2OO,OOl,CIXl
1oo,(O),em
1!50,OOO,OOO
3OOooo,00l

Source of InfOl'lTmion:

.2000 and

2001 FERC FCll'm 2

ea
68
68
68
68

..
..
68
68
68

ea

11,093.150
12,250,000
8,2S0,000

8412.000
6.84

E_

,....ale

CompooIte
AnnUlilized

Cool

Coot

Role

7.0ll0
7.250
6.800
8.800
8.1lOO
6.1lOO
6.1lOO
8.1lOO
6_
6.1lOO
6.1lOO
6.1lOO
6.1lOO
8.875
6.125
8.250
5.2ll8
7.000

'4

31 2001

531,000
14,5CD,OOJ

..

ea
ea
68
ea

(:2)
(:2)
(2)
(:2)
(:2)

68
68
68
68

(2)

(2)
(:2)
(:2)

..

68

(2)

11,093,750
12,25O,em
6,2S0,000
7,Q44,OOO
21.CIlQ OX)
8.80

S 73,589,0498

NeD&: (1) AaurnII!d equII to IhecornpcMitedebt CDIIl1Ited ~ ~


December 31, 2000.
(2) .Aaaumed equal to the cornpoII:e
December 31, 2001.

14,500,000

(1)
(1)
(1)
/1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)

S 1,082.511 ,em

DetlI:

S 14,160,000

S 66.868.498

[)eol'!'TJber

2OO.ooo,CDJ

NoI.~T~lHG~
Note Adv.nce
NCIttI AdYIinoe
NoteAcMInct
Note Advance
NClttiMnJme
Note AdvwIce
Ncte AdvWlCe

Year Ended

""""'"

Interest

R"e

975.011,000

OutsmncIinq

7.DB'4 DebentUre due 2026


7.25% Debenture due 2026
Hen NNarroe Pine Needle Opeming Co.

Ara"Ju;llized

7.0ll0
7.250
8.8<0
6.8<0
6.8<0
6.840
8.8<0
6.8<0
6.8<0
6.8<0
8.840
6.8<0
6."""
8.875
6.125
6250
5.808

1&1,000000

DebI

TotIIlDnQ-TIm1

200,000,(0)
200,CXXI,OOO
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
125.0CXl,oo::l
200.000,000
100,OlXI,O'Xl

CompooIte

Effective
Cool

exduding

note ~

III

debt cc.l11Ite of l1li dttlt exdudi1g

ncte ~

III

'"

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-4
Page 16 of 16

Williams Nat1nI Gas Company


Calculation of the Composite Cost Rete of Long-Term Debt Outstanding
Actual for the Years Ended December 31 2000 and December 31 2001

Actual for the Year Ended pecember 31 2000


Effective
Series
7.36% Notes clue 1999
Total Long- Term Debt

Amount

Cost

Outstanding
S 175,000000

Rate
7.380

Annualized
Cost

S 175,000,000

Composite
Interest
Rate

S 12915000
S 12,915,000

7.38

.Actual for the Year Ended December 31 2001


EftectNe
Amount

Series
7.375% Notes due 2006
Total long-Term Debt

Source of Information:

Outstanding
S 175,000,000
S 175,000,000

2000 end 2001 FERC Form 2

Cost
Rate

7.380

AnnuafIzed

Composite
Interest

Cost

Rate

S 12,915000
S 12,915,000

7.38

Docket No. P-D3-4


WORKPAPERS
(none)

to FJH-5

Docket No. P.Q3-4


WORKPAPERS

to FJH~

(Consisting of Workpapers # 1 - 9)

Closing Prlc

BUCKEYE PARTNERS LP
KANEB PIPELINE PARTNRS LP
KINDER MORGAN ENERGY LP
TEPPeQ PARTNERS -LP

EPD
GTM
KMI

GULFTERRA
ENERGY PARTNERS-LP
KINDER MORGAN INC

EN8RlDGE

ENERGY

PRTNRS

ENTERPRISE PRODS PRTNER LP

Source of Information:

Standard & Poor', Compustl!lt


finance. yahoo.com

SerVIces,

39.260
47.900

feb
03

03

02

02

36.460

34.850
35.000
27.750

19.400
21.840
42.270

17.760
29.800
41.050

35850
44790

38.050
43.330

38.400

36.770
37.000
31.640

37.050

35.670

36.350
30.380

35.950
29.280

20.190
31360
45.~

30.990
45.110

43.550

39.520

39.330

39.740
39.110

39500

36.600

3d 200

32..460

21.900
38.520

22.530
37540

53.500

54.650

22.350

22.640

20.850

36.620
51.050

34.340
47.020

31030
45.000

19000

42.150

40.700

aug
02

02

02
36900
39.460
33.450
35120
27.100

35.940
45.700

.ep

oct

nO\'

due

Jan
03

36.150
45.600

39.830

Inc., PC Plus Resel!ltch

mar

apr
03

37.430
45.450
41.830

<6.820
44800

LP

may
03

03
39.900

BPL
EEP
KPP
KMP
TPP

Monthly
jun

JUI

03

36.700
43.600

37.350
44.450
38010

32.650

36.160
31.930

29.480

29200

18.620
29.900
36.610

19510

21800

29.580
35450

35350

34.200

32.560

31350

41.190

Insight Data Base

;.

"e
.. 0
"CO,..n

... CO

"

'It_
.....
Z

~ S?
... .""
0 ....
0
_:1: ...
... b>J,.

DPS Monthly

lul
03
"PL
EEP
KPP
KMP
7PP

EPD
GTM
KMI

BUCKEYE PARTNERS -LP


ENBRIDGE

ENERGY

PRTNRS

LP

KANEB PIPELINE PARTNRS -lP


KINDER

MORGAN

ENERGY

LP

TEPPCO PARTNERS LP

ENTERPRISE PRODS PRTNER lP


GULFTERRA ENERGY PARTNER8-LP
KINDER

MORGAN

Source of Informallon"

INC

Standard & Poor's Compustat

Services,

m.y

Jun
03

03

2.550

2.550
3.700

3.240

3.700
3.240

2.560
2.500

2560
2.500

1.450
2.700
0.600

1.0150
2.700
0.600

2.550
3.700
3.240
2.600
2.500

2.550
3.700

1.450
2.600
1.600

Inc., PC Plull Researt:h

mar

.pr
03

03

Jan

feO
03

2500

2500
3.700

3.240

2.500
3.700
3.160

2.560
2.500

2.500
2.400

2.500
2.400

3.700
3.160
2.500
2.400

1.450
2700
0.600

1.380
2.700
0600

1.380
2.700
0600

2.700
0600

3.160

1380

03

03
2.500
3.600

3.160
2.440
2.400

1.380
2.700
0.400

2.500
3.500
3.160

2.440
2.400

1380
2.700
0."00

03

03
2.500
3.600
3.160
2.440
2.400

1.380
2.700

0.400

.u.

sep

oct

nO'>'

dec
03

03

2.500
3.600
3.160
2.440
2.400

1.340
2.600
0400

2.500
3.500
3.160

2.440
2400

1.340
2.600
0400

Insight Data BaBe

finance. yahoo. com

~
~

...

"'OC
01 0
"'On

~ ...

.,,::r:t!'
Ol"'Z

'" _ 0
lD 0

N-n-o

...0"'0
::1: ...

... b>J.

Dividend YIeld Monthty

lul
03

ePL
EEP
KPP
KMP
TPP

BUCKEYE PARTNERS -lP


ENBRIDGE ENERGY PRTNRS LP

EPO
mM
KMI

ENTERPRISE

KANEB PIPELINE PARTNRS


KINDER MORGAN ENERGY
TEPPCO PARTNERS
LP

-lP
-lP

PRODS PRTNER

LP

GUlFTERRA ENERG'1 PAR1NER5-LP


KINDER MORGAN INC

Jun
03

.p,

m.y
03

03

6.3910
7.9026
7.2321
6.5277
6.6493

6.4952
7.7244

68127
8.1408

70539
8.1140

7.4391
6.4777
6.8306

7.7456

6.5090

6.6210

8.4359

7.2600
2.9907

7.1923
1.0979

leb

me'
03

03

J.n

doc

03

03

n""
03

6.6934
B.0990
8.3136

7.6417
8.2192

7.4939

81411

7.7703

7.4114

6.8683

9.0604
0.9744

9.030'
1.0926

8.7897

81468
7.3550
0.9711

6.5104
6.5409
90674

6.9541

6.9714

13.4469
6.9476

8.1967

6.6466

88561

6.8351

7.2632

7.1134

6.6097
1.3178

8.7125
1.3301

9.6963
0.9463

6.9735
6.2609

7.3099

8.1530
6.5456
7.7018

6.4871
7.3730
1 1753

6.'4046
7.8628
1.2761

6.6187
870'3
1.3333

85200
6.8776
7.8999

03

03
6.8120
6.2192
8.7389

6.5703
6.5391
8.8590

6.9560
6.0963
85940
6.1568
7.5853

.u,

e.p

oct
03

6.7751
9.1232

6.8568

6.6452
92398
7.4732

1.1283

7.6555

Source of Infonnallon' Standard & POOr'1Compultllt services, Inc., PC Plul Resean::h Inlight Dala Base
finance.yahoo.com

~
~

...

"C
.,0

"n

.,,'I~t_~
.,-"2
IQ
CO -0

w"'"
ot...O
_::t:w
wo,'/"

Closing

prtces Monthly

oct

nov

doc
01

01

01

BPL
EEP
KPP
KMP
TPP

BUCKEYE PARTNERS LP
ENBRIDGE ENERGY PRTNRS LP
KANEB PIPELINE PARTNRS -LP
KINDER MORGAN ENERGY LP
TEPPCO PARTNERS lP

37."llO
42.060
4O.9llO
37.920
30.000

36.120
42.050
40.430
36.000
32.120

35.100
44.250
41.540
39.250
34.650

EP
EPN
KMI
WMB

ELPASO CORP
EL PASOENERGY PARTNERS-LP
KINDER MORGAN INC
WILLIAMS cas INC

44.610
37.200
55.690
25.520

44.500
37.510
49.930
26.720

37.050
49.630
29.870

49.060

oug

sep

01

01
34.650
45.570
39.530
34.610

Jun

jut
01

34.520
45.250
35.820

32.()(X)

36.910
45.080
37.200
35.400
31.900

29.350

36.000
45.500
36.340
35.950
29.790

41.550
36.400
49.210
27.300

49.590
37.160
55.600
32.550

51.750
34.250
52.400
33.500

52540
31.500
50.250
32.950

60.900
33.000
55.250
39.400

26.200

33.900
44.000
33.900
29.930
25.370

32.950
44.800
34.090
31.125
25.670

65.300
31.200
53.200
42.950

70.300

32.730
55.400
41.700

62900
29.140
54.350
39.130

33.620
44.050
34.160

GB.BOO
59.700
42.170

01

01

33.400
45.700
34.700
35.100
27.450

31.800

Jon

feb

mo'
01

01

36.900
47.800
39.930
36.590
31.570

34.300

opr

mill'
01

01

31.550

Source of Inforhlatlon: Stllndllrd & Poor's Compustat Servic:eI, Inc., PC Plus ReMlirch Insight 081:11BaBe

;.

"0

"0
"n
~ir

"tl'lt

...

.,NZ

~ S'?
_"T1"tl

0"'0
...
::l:w
wo.J..

DPS-M"'hly

BPL
EEP
KPP
KMP
TPP

EP
EPN
KMI
WMB

BUCKEYE PARTNERS -LP


ENBRIDGE

ENERGY PRTNRS

-LP

KANEB PIPELINE PARTNRS -LP


KINDER MORGAN ENERGY -lP
TEPPCO PARTNERS

-LP

EL PASO CORP
EL PASO ENERGY PARTNERS-LP
KINDER MORGAN INC

WILLIAMS COS INe

oct

nov

deo

01

01

01

aug

"P

01

0'

2.500
3.500
2.BOO

Jun

I'"
01

01

2.500
3.500
3.000
2.200
2.300

2.500
3.500
3.000
2.200
2.300

2.500
3.500
3.000
2.200
2.300

2.500
3.500
2.000
2.100

2.100

2.100

2.100

0.850
2.450
0.200
0.000

0.850
2.450
0.200
O.BOO

0.850
2.450
0.200
0.800

0.850
2.300
0.200
0.720

0.850
2.300
0.200
0.720

0.850
2.300
0.200
0.720

2.500
3.500
2.BOO

ma,

apr

may

01

01

01

2.400
3.500
2.BOO

2.400
3.500
2.000

2.400
3.500
2.BOO

2.100

2.100

2.100

2.100

2.100
2.100

2.100
2.100

0.850
2.300
0.200
0.600

0.850
2.300
0.200
0.600

0.850
2.300
0.200
0.600

01

2.100

2.400
3.500
2.BOO
1.000
2.100

0.850
2.200
0.200
0.600

0.850
2.200
0.200
0.600

2.400
3.500
2.BOO
1.000

jan

feb

01

2.400
3.500
2.800
1.000
2.100

0.850

noo
0.200
0.600

Source of Information: Stllndllrd & Poor's Compuatat Servicee. Inc .. PC Plus Research Insight Dala Base

:E
o

;-

"00
"'0

"On

~~

-0 'It_

",NZ
IQ - 0
tl>

N-n-o

0 .....
0

... :I:",

"'hi ....

OMdend

Y1I'Id. - Monthly

doe
BPL
EEP
KPP
KMP
7PP

BUCKEYE PARTNERS LP
ENBRIOOE ENERGY PRTNRS -LP
KANEB PIPEUNE PARTNRS -LP
KINDER MORGAN ENERGY -LP
TEPPCO PARTNERS

ELPASOCORP

EP
EPN

EL PASO ENERGY PARTNERS-LP


KINDER MORGAN INC
WILUAMS COS INC

KMI
WMB

Source

-LP

c{

Infonmdion: Standerd & Poor'a ~

oct

nov
01

01

01

6.0702
6.321'
7.3206
5.6170
7.6667

6.9214
8.3234
7.4202
6.1111
7.1606

6.6376

1.9054
6.5660
0.3591
3.1346

1.9101
6.5316
0.4087
2.9940

1.7326
6.6127
0.04030
2.1710

SeMoes.. Inc., f>C Plua Resetll'Ch

oep
01

7.1225
7.9096
72220
5.7516

01
7.2150

7.6605
7.0832
6.0676
6.5625

2.0457
6.3187

0.4004
2.6374

Jul
01

ma,

Jun
01

01

01

6.7732

6.9525

6.6667

7.7640

7.7348

7.6923

5.7'oe
6.6519

7.5269
5.9322
B.5831

7.8169
6.1082
7.1550

7.7fHJ
5.8577
7.7967

1.7.93
6.1895
0.3597
22120

1.6425
6.7153
0.3817
2.1493

1.6178

1.3957

7.3016
0.3980
1.6209

6.9697
0.3620
1.5228

6.7935
7.3222
7.0123

.~,

mo,

01

0'
7.0796
7.9545

7.1856
7.B566
8.0692
5.9629
7.6503

7.1386
7.9455
8.1967

8.2596

6.=
8.0153

63481
B.WS

1.2355
7.2327

1.3017
7.0513
0.3759
1.4002

1.2091
6.7217
0.3610

0.3407
1.4228

jen

(.b
01

1.4366

7.2636
7.8125
8.2136
6.1044
8.1608

1.3514
7.5498
D.36llO
1.5334

'n~ Data 811M

;.
"'0

"0
"'n
~~
"tI'lt~

.. "'z

'"
~ 0
.. O
... "T\"O

0'-6

....:I: ...

... ~~

Closing

Prices - Monthly

doc
00
BPL
KPP
KMP
LHP
TPP

BUCKEYE

EP
3ENRNQ
KMI
WMB

ELPASOCORP
ENRONCORP
KINDER MORGAN INC
WILLIAMS CDS INC

PARTNERS

~LP

KANE8 PIPELINE PARTNRS -LP


KINDER MORGAN ENERGY -LP
LAKEHEAD PIPE LINE PARTNERS, L.P.
TEPPCO PARTNERS -tp

oct

nov

00

aug

BOp

00

00

00

Jul
00

may

j..,
00

ma,

ap00

00

leb

jsn

00

00

00

29.500

26.750

41.250
24.563

30.875
27.125
23.000
38.750
22.063

27.125
23.750
38.875
23.438

29.563
23.688
41.500
26.563

28.125
27.063
21.094
39.250
23.750

27.875
24.875
2O.7Bl
39.125
25.563

26.813
24.375
19.969
40.063
23.750

26.688
25.500
19.000
36.563
22.625

27.063
26.000
19.500
35.500
20.938

26.000
25.063
19.B44
34.750
22.250

26.625
26.563
19.750
37.500
21.375

27.875
26.563
21.375
37.375
21.375

71.625
83.125
52.188
39.938

60.063
84.750
41.438
35.375

62.688
82.063
38.563
41.813

61.625
87.625
40.938
42.250

58.250
84.875
36.B13
46.063

48.375
73.625
34.000
41.750

50.938
64.500
34.563
41.688

51.500
72.875
32.625
41.563

42.500
69.688
30.313
37.500

40.375
74.875
34.500
43.938

37.063
68.750
27.875
41.813

32.250
67.875
26.313
39.000

28.875
30.813

28.156

Source of Inform8l:ion: Standard & Poor'a Compuat Services,lnc . PC Plus Reseerch Insigh!: Datil Bne

;.

"Co
"0
"C
n

~i;"

"tI".,wZ
o
.....,"tI

lC CO

0'-0

... :I:w

wlnJ>.

DPS Monthly

nov

doc
00

00

00

Ipr

mlY
00

00

00

00

jan

lob

mar

00

00

00

3.500
2100

2.400
2.800
1.500
3.500
2000

2.400
2.800
1.550
3.500
2000

20400
2.800
1.500
3.500
2.000

2400
2.1lOO
1.500
3.500
2.000

2.400
2.1lOO
1.500
3.500
2.000

2.400
2.800
1.450
3.500
1.900

2.400
2.800
1.450
3.500
1.900

2.400
2.800
1.450
3.500
1.900

0.82.
0.500
0.200
0.600

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

0624
0.500
0.200
0.600

BUCKEYE PARTNERS LP
KANEB PIPELINE PARTNRS -LP
KINDER MORGAN ENERGY -LP
LAKEHEAO PIPE LINE PARTNERS, L.P.
TEPPCO PARTNERS -LP

2.400
2.1lOO
1.700
3.500
2.100

2.400
2.800
1.700
3.500
2.100

2.0400
2.eoo

EP
3ENRNQ
KMI
WMB

EL PASO CORP
ENRON CORP
KINDER MORGAN INC
WILLIAMS COS INC

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

0.824
0.500
0.200
0.600

& Poor's ComPJslaI: Servicee. Inc., PC Plus Reenrch

lUll

jul

lug
00

2.400
2.800
1.550
3.500
2000

BPL
KPP
KMP
LHP
TPP

Source of Informalion: Strd..-d

sop

oct

00

1.700

Insight Dala Base

::E
o
;.
'00

"0
'On

~,..
<D

"ll'lt

...

.. "'z

~ ... 0
<D 0 .
N"TI"ll

0"'0
... ::1:",

",b>J.

OMd.nd Yield Monthly

doc
BPL
KPP
KMP

BUCKEYE PARTNERS -LP


KANEB PIPELINE PARTNRS
KINDER MORGAN ENERQY

LHP
TPP

LAKEHEAD PIPE LINE PARTNERS,


TEPPCO PARTNERS -LP

EP
3ENRNO
KMI
WMB

EL PASO CORP
ENRONCORP
KlNOER MORGAN INC
WILLIAMS COS INC

L.P.

00
7.T733
10.3226
7.3913

8.1358
10.3226
7.1578

B.4848
8.5494

9.0323
9.5182

9.0032
8.9588

1.1504
0.6015

1.3719

0.7722

0.3932

0.4826

1.5023

1.6961

0.5186
1.4350

aug

HI'
00

00

9.0871
6.0378

8.3117
-LP
-LP

oct

nov

00

00

jul
00

8.3478

8.5333

9.4713

10.3462
7.3481

7.5293

8.4211

8.6099
11.2563
7.4587
8.9457
7.8238

1.3144

1.3371

0.6093

0.5706
0.4885
1.4201

1.4146
0.5891

0.6791

8.5434
8.4337

8.9172

0.5433
1.3028

jun
8.8509

11.4872
7.7020
8.7362

00

8.9928
10.9804
8.1579
9.5725

ma,

apr

may

00

00

00

9.8682

9.ZlOB

9.0141

8.6099

10.7692
7.9487

11.1718

10.5410

..10.5410

9.8592
9.5520

7.3070
10.0719

8.4211

8.8398

1.6000

1.9388

2.0409

0.6861
0.6130

0.7175

0.5882

1.61n
0.7752
0.5787

0.6678
0.5797

1.4371

1.4393

1.4436

1.7034

jan

feb

00

00

0.6598
1.6000

B.5393

1.3656

7.3-118

6.7836

9.3333
8.8889

9.3545
8.8889

2.2232
0.7273

2.5550

0.7175

0.7601

1.4350

1.5385

0.7366

Source of Informstlon: Sblndard & Poor'B Compust.t ServIces. Inc., PC Plus Research Insight Dahl Beae

;.
'00
"0
'On

!!:,..

<D

"'0""-

.,wZ

<D -0 0
.

lQ

W"T1"'O

0<-6
... :I:w

wo,J.

3 .......,.,
2 ..... lIl1.,
3 ....._

TWEUNSS
SAfffi
TECHNICA1

~~'h'

.....'" .. '-....20'" --211


..., , ..
.....

IIlA

.6lI !:1.ao_MlIk-.j

-.oB

16.\

PROJEcl~!iS

Ann" Total

HlII-llfllll.

...

JASOIiIO

"!::':.'"811'_ ~
.,li

,1'"

...... ... ""' ...

,.

lTDeIll:$350.0mil.
LTln6mst
(Total men=t c:ownge: 4.5Jl)

......
.....

t4t5Yt

c..\,"'~

....,,,_ .... "'''''

ReCilivables

13.8

Liab.

ANNUAl RAre!
of cMlgt (pIr .,)
Siles
"ClISh Flaw"

7~

,..

112

'.6

13.-4
-47.7

,-.-

....

&,

105

---u;

B.'

42

-22.'

2-4.9

16.4

43.8

_.

3D 30:1

111,..,

--...
.....

2.''"

Put

nrs:

211.'

.......

Esfd ..

.Z

3.0%
6.0%
5.0%

tn

U.
.55
9.64

'"1D,

,,.
.61

115.5
4U'
11.0
.,,7

--

...,..

.05

"40
.63

.17

15'

., ".

10.13

11.7'

.,.

17111

16.

'40

10.N

9.3
.61

B.5
5'

7.6\

8.1'

.....

183.5

'86'

45.1'

111

411.1

49.11

..

.-

... ."

'83.D
11'
'9'

..

13.6

214.0
10U
12.11

202.1

...

19.01

5.1'

6.0'

'"

--

16.

19.6'

1~.
3~.

""

,.,

U.

..

"... "'." ,.

",. "

"...

II

216.0
12.6"
17.91
4.6"

'"

305.8

"

"
"

".us

"U
S2.4'

65'

..

'-

645

..

",. ".
3D.91

131
2660

317.0
12.6'

2B:s.0
349.4

11.1'

18.6" 20.61 18.51


,,, ,,. ",. ,,. ",.
'I"
ma_1ided
16. '"

'MF

'MF

1>'
n.
Ife.

VALlELll:fIlE
R ......
,.UnII:
"Cah RGw"' ... Unit
Enlnp JIll III'IIl A
ow. Dld'd pII' lWr
Coo1 ......
' ,..lIoIt

~-

ZIl ..4

247.3

'0.0

04U'
111.1
l1J

,.....15.4
373.0

n,
....
n. 13.'
H5

..

.1.1

..'" ..,

...

405.0
351.4

11.n

10.9".10 10.a,.
19.7" 10.'"
n 1.1"

'U"
....

... ...

'"

....'",..

-'Cool"'.

'c..,

OII'Pnt ..

RnIMd .. P.to .. ClIp

"" ""

IIIJI1HIIMI1l

....

nn

Iln.'

If.ft RIUII .. Tutli Cap'I

''''' AI Did. tEl ~

I."
tUG

.....
5U1li

0~m.:"1

u.", ...

110

.15

W.... , Cop'
351 lon.T... _1W1

115

...

00

7.1"

-I~I

....__
",
" "..,,,

'U

-DB

lUO

IU

1
RIktfva PIE Rdo
AwgAN' 1liI'l'r1lld

IftcInI fu It* DD

2!.tI
13.0

3519

B~

"'111

....,.

~1

12.9
".8
15'

... .. .... ,.
,,. -..::
... ... ...

115

30.0'
9.B d.,
2G.0
240.0
302.8
1985
10.9\
1111"

".

'"

",. ,,. ""...


...

1~.D "'5
CG.1110 51.1\
132
16.4
411.8
55.'

-26.4"

'45

,"

..,
....... ......

.~.
...

1997 '998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2....


6.86
6.64 11.31
1.70
1.10
1f5
B"
3.1l6 3.0<
3.19
1M
1..
1.30 .68
3.41
"9
1.03
1.05 2.41
>70
238
'56 '65
1 .. U,
2.10
2.18
250
'50
'.40
'17
.14
U
U.
.64
163
.6'
'00 1.49
11.72
1190 11.99 13.15 It.. IU'
'Ul 1113 'lll6
a.16
'.1
".U4
,,5
.5
116
13J
115
.64
.15
.15
.17
;,;,., IB.1'4 1.1'
7.8'
1.1'
8.0'

43.8'

111

,II

PnIf

'"
'"

14.0"

"........"
""

BUSINESS: BIIl:Uye PWINn, LP. is.


pWMnh~
engag&I3 in CDImI:lf1 Clfrilge bansportati:Jn of refined petroIeImI
pmdllds. indudftg gaaWI_ (50.5" d 112 "*neJ. j.t tuel
and diEtllilt.
(24.1%). ta ,ubliilliilri81 own end CIP'* eboIA
3,15OQ...IIlIesc:I pipelne serm; 10 Utes, nostly iI the tattusl:
n l/PPIW t.fftesl. The ~1Ill
.110 opIfI'!es pipeRs una.

b' IIdIfOl" 01 MId cIIIlnJII:aI Cl:lnIpMIia. SDtI hn.niK


I'8flIMlJil!s ill PenMylvanill ... I.....
1lMJO. Buc:byI Pipe I..bIl
Co.
GetwM P..,. SoIne of ... ~'I'
c:alI diIHJu.
Wn is tu~.
OIfJdi".
than 'ft aI LP. unIs {'02 ,0It}. PrmJCEO: Wibrn Ii. St...
Drg..: DE. Addr..: P.O. b
368,
Enmall5, PI. '8049. Tel.: 800-4ZZ-2BZ5. W8b: ..... ~.lDIl.

Buckeye Partners continues to post


solid financial results. In fact. in the

we expect lncremental expenses related lo


the Gulf Coast e.pansIon to offset efforts

(22."''''.

J:l.

5"

own'"

to keep a ti~t

lid on operating

cnsts.

The annua cash distribution has been


noised
by II nickel. to SZ.SS per unit. AIthough thfs Is a less ___
hlke than
we had antldpated
(we expected the an
nual P'yDut to be Increased
to SZ.60 per
unll). the currenl yield
Df 6.7% silll
represents

sfubJe

\.3/ue Line median

~emJwn

an

over

the

the IO-year Trea-

swy note. In fact, the nearly 340-basispoint spread relative to the Treasury yield
Is well above the hlstorical
yield spread
about )80 basis points. What's more,. we
think another
distribution
hJke Is Ukely
next year. given the partnershlp's
lmprovIng fundamentals
and strong cash
As
we continue to recommend Buckeye
units for mnsenrattve
investors
seeking
current Income. But lnvestor.o in search of
capital gaill5 should probably
look else
where. since inlernaJ growth out to 2006
2008 is apt to be minimal.
(Note that a
portion of the distribution
is trealed as a
relurn
on capital
and is. theref""', tax
deferrable for new unitholders.)
Justin Hellman
June 13, 2003
Compann
FillatlCial ....
Jlh
.. _
..... (OI~~ ....
8'

....

"'"

,65

,.

..

',.1

'I. 101. RE'1l.IlII 5ID3

3.,",
5.OlO

,.'"
,~"-~'" U"

6.0%
6~"
6.5%

t,111

..
20
16
12

first quarter
of 2003. lhe partnershJp's
revenues and earnings
were up 16% and
13%. respectively.
to $65.8 million
and
~~
SO.60 per unlL The healthy
growfh
was
EIclc*. V.1ue
3.0%
'.OlO
supported
by increased
pipeline throughas colder weather boosted demand for
t IlIJARTEla.l_~~
F"
.rlliar
"'r.31
J"n.30 SeD.' DK.31
Yeating oil and a sounder
U.S. economy
ZO!.6 Ufloo gasoline and turbine
fuel ""Olumes.
019.9
50.1
.tS
56.'
S...
56.9 58.'
620
231.0 Also. results benefited. from the ongoing
2102 56.9
61.1
63.6
65.7 241.3 expansion of Buckeye's Culf Coast operelOO3
65.8
88.0 Zf5
BU
fU
liDll$. Dwing
the March
penD<!. the Gulf
BU
70.. 275
B"
Coast subsidiao:
completed
Its Sabina
EARH1HGS PER LWfJ' ..
plpeUne project Involving the ronstrucUon
endar
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.SO DKJ1
Y", of a gOmile
petrochemical
pipeline
in
.53
t>B Texas). which ought to be a significant
.51
.53
.80
.55
.80
256 source of new business going forward .
.59
.62
lID2
.53
.61
.11
.70
Near-term.
prospects
are. decent. In our
.60
.70
.75
170 view. Pipeline \/Olumes should continue to
.U
_1.1
.67
.13
.78
rise. as the ecollOJllY heads further
down
OISTRIBIIllONS
PMI"
t IlIJARTERLI
the road lo rerovery.
and as jet fuel
F'"
1I.r.21 "' . 30 S.,..31 DKJI
Y." demand
eventually
returns
to
pre1m
525
.
.55
t18 September
.S.
11th levels.
Additionally.
a
lOOO
.60
.60
.60
~40 higher a'Verage tariff rate. resulting
.60
from
z001
.60
.60
.625
.625
more long-haul product shipments.
should
lOO1
.625 .625 .625 .625
pad the lop line. On the cosl side. howZOO3
.625 .638
ever. the outlook Js not as blight. Indeed,

-.,

IIn"

11.2

.11

2SBJ
5.1
5.1
214.0
224.0
233.1 246.0

IlARKETCAP; "., bl:UIoft (IIidCllpl


CURRENT POSrrlON

Cunnt

",., .. ,,1

- .... ---.... - - ...

'I

,.,

23."

$.7 nil.

Parm.,. c..pltaf Z8,9'Ui,260 unD


InCludn Z43,!1-4 G.n .... 1Pertnl!n.hip

""""

'./

$2D.Omil
oIC.p"l)

LM5e5, UncapitlllbdAnnwalmntals
Na D.tinitd Ben'"
Pl!n5lan PWI

011."

-- -

Tuget Pric. R.nge


2006 2007 200'

..

CAprrAl STRUCTURE as of 3131,;13


Toial Debt S350.0 mi. Due In S V,. $150.0 ml.

Cun-ent~
Aa:ts Payable
lJobl Duo

2O.S

Financial Group)on December 23,


1986 by sellin9 24.0 mllion limilod partnership unils 10 the public af $10 eacf1. Gold
man Sachs & Co. and Shearson Lehman
BroU1ersInc. were the underwriters.The
partnernhip also sold 242,424 units 10 ils
9""eral managin9 partner, Buelieye Managemet1f Company, at $10 eadI. Bud<eye
Pal1ners is one of the largest independent
pipelinecommoncarriersin the U.S.

'_(Fro)

III

40.0
33.'

40.'

28.4

or

Amencan

>B.'

,.

BUckeye Pal"lneB acquired the pipeline 1993 19'" 1995 1996


subsidiaries of The P""n Gentral COIJl. (now
124
'.68 1.55

u ot4t1i1D3

31.9
25.0

'50

25.0

""

" -.. , ,

"'"

29.5

31.1

".:

32
V34

25

30.0
20.1

fK'rlPln

.'

0 0 0 0 0 000
00000
0 0 0 0
000 0 0 0 000
InsUlutional Decisions
1(0.1
1lllIll

....:::'1 ..J,.: "'.,"

21.4
17.1

ZIM

10%

SO
1n5k1er Decisions

144

....=~"h::'~

Pri'"

(+2~1

18.5
15.0

'0.5
15.

208

ow:
12.9
LEGENDS
Q.l~IDilI.p_

~J%o.841~6.7% .

f
1
l~mKT
38 osltRAm
14 1(''';''9.tIfi~.
4.0)I U
PR~E

BUCKEYE PARTNERS NYSEBPl .

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-6
Page 1 of 5

H'
'50

11r....

or

now.

sum.

~ .... d 00 .......
",,,
.....
""",
-d
.......
, '00. $1.11. _
....
fCllnm.I. ... ,_
; diutBd
ttMnafIlI".
Exd. nDl'I'fll:ImIg 1'$11 due rnid-JuL (BI NI!I1 disi'tHltion rneet- _ no! alIQIaabkl i:l Ihose of most DChs
Ioaes: '92, $1.D5: "93, $0.09: '94. SO.OS; '97. ing mii-JuL GDBSu' il
Aug. ~
PIIy- enllies unOlI" V..
LN"
hlYiew, siM:e BIQ$1.66: '98. $0.13. EJ:cl gai"I: '!HI. SO.40. Exd. rM!nI dales: mI da)'
Mey, Aug . Now. ere PlYS rnninal if a"", lues.

r;ierj.,

ltIJJ. YaIr L_ ~-.


AI ~:I~.r.ItuII
....
;"IlIIIIitIrd'""'"
_~"lIrtwlirllllr
IltE PUBlISHER IS trIO'I liE
IISIlLl OllAN\" EInlOR!; OIl (MSSlQIfS IURl_.'"
J"*'Ai-" *"dJ"
II t -,.
~
ftWIl. .....
~
.. .., ......
_IU'IIM

---= ........

..

...

.....

-...Inal.L...
ill... use.

pI"BIIilg........-...n.n. ~ _Ii......
priIlItcI ......

pill

senU.1f1*:l.

,.

Sklci; .. Price &tUiIIJ


PIb Growth Pen.1dnce
Ealllklgs PNdk:IOIIlJ

,.

'00

:t1 :

"

"

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-6
Page 2 of 5

1141~vv 6.7%
RATIO.
KINDER MORGAN EN. NYSE-KMP I~NT 39.451~TIO 19.2(~=:m
,,,
2
I ~:I '; I
,,~
RflATIVE
PI

T.. ElJIESS

RI&ed9l'l'lW2

SAfETY

.111

I1J,

Hr-rmr.a

TECHNICAl

n.DO.

HI'h.'
LCI'l'f;
5.
LEQENDS

~~:~=
:r
...

2IlO'<l' PROJECT!"N'

~""

..'~
..,

-. .. .. .. .....

1"17"

......

28861

.,
"

l.-e ....

,"I

Assets1Z1t12' NMF OIIlill. $13.3 mil.


Capital: 181,8111,240 units
publldy hlillll currrnon units

~ntQry

B and i Ilnls

(47% d Cap1)

...

6Ze

56'.0

41.1
475.5
11.8
141.0
669.-4

121.1

421.'

26ll.5

(Avg Cst)

220.3

=~~

CUmtN AsSlds

SOO~

00Cunul'll LJab.

--.....
-.....
-

"-""""

962.7
.at

tnn.

"Cuh FJow"

1-45%
95%

BdVaIue

11.0~
13.0%

~d~utJ:ln,

!if.8

8133

..

llad1

lilt

'llOll.5
Iln,
'788.8

n..

205"
19_0%
25.0%
22.'"
27.5%

63!.5

135.8

1655
145
436.1
1116.1

...

Pal Elt'd'lO-'1I2

13.5"

'Z""
lZ""
OS"

,.""
,Full

816.4

5&'3E 2946.

1091,0 1121.1 1253.1

2103

'26.!'
ft ..
fUr.: flSll 88S11
f<GO f...
1150 1100
EARJlllrtCS PER lIIrr ..
filii
II1II.31 Jun. 31'
31 Dee. 31
.32
.35
.34
.33
1.34
.36
.36
1.56
.7
.50
.51
1.96
.50
.81
.8f
.81
2.06
.87

.51

e....

QUARTERLY DmRlBlJl1)f(S

PM).

1100

CoJ,

2001
2102

... ...

_J<

lIu.31

lilt

IllOt

36E
784.7
12.4
,31B

_1E1ll'RE>fMJES(loil
Jun.:sa S.p.30 Ok 31
157.' 193.8 2ll2.' 262.6

CoJ,

M."
2002

Jl31J03

3062

281.4

ANNUAL RATES

.325
.3625

.m

2002

.55

IlOO3

.625

s.D~

.58

Jln.3D

... -

Sep.3G Dec:.31

.3625

.35

.35

.3!75
'25
.59

.25 .425

...

'AJ......,- ........

.525
.61

50
60
50
4D

....

.56
.6'

2.28
f~'
,_
1.39
1.60
2.08

2.36

:lf'' '

13l1.S

1~.2

'56E

132.4

128.S

123.1

5.1%
6.5'l1o

NIF
'II'

~
..~---

11",,1

,." -

3D

"
15

,.

6.'"

......
....
"" -.
'~
,~.,
..
'~.

.~

,.,.

..

'602
118.3

,.3,

.n

8.6"

,-'"

NMF
NMF

NMf
loW

10,'"
NMf

"""

.....

,~",.56
'Ill

2DD

1.60

.03

'502

8.'%
11.8 ..

NIF
NN'

UN
1.5'
816.4

1.12

"...
!2.8

....

S3D.1
1360.1 1774.8

11581.7
12SH
2111.1

NMF

10"

...'"
loW

3."

1'''91

21.8

34.n,

"""

'.36

165.1lll
16.0

fl.6"
13."

NMF

6.'%
2946.1
24.0"

142.1

442.3
3.G'
15.0'

"".1

4268.3
21.0'

m.
.....
2.5'

15.0'
d1ot3.9

,n

14.0"

17.8"

'IF

NMF

'"

;41

:14.00

150

IJll

150

-CaRl FIlM"' ,. thl/l


Eaminill Pw UnIt ,.
UDill. DId'I! ,.. IIIiI

4JD

150 C~' Splncing,. UnIt

'.50
,.,.

100
171

fl.7' Boall YIIuI .... UnIt

11.20

00

;:.-

.92

mI.! 366D.'
3159.0 3416.0

sn

".Ill

'~.

2117'

C1VAULJlEPUB lie.
WI RI'fIIII.-s per UIit

1.96

18.41

......

7.0'10
8.6"

1.78

23.09
2..

1~.43 18.n

S.,,, "0.3

.....

24.1
1~.iS

. .."., .,.
...
...
".'" .....-.:: ,.'"
,..

11.n

7.5

,;, Tat RT\III5IDJ

2000 2001 2002 2003 2_

,u

Ayg All .. , PIE KDO


RIIItin PIE RIll

Avg AM'

[is'

,..,.
f.to

....

Y"1IId

It.. RI'MIUB (WI

.....::-J
,,..
...
"
..'"
'''' ...
,"'"
w_.
....
....

,.""
2Ill

100

''''
''''''
"'''
,JOG

1150
10.n
11.0%

IE

n. ""

-..

21'"

_--

3ZS

Dc:DMI Tu IWI

fU"

(1001'
"'50 ....._ Cop1
... iW/

'nn'
"'" R......
Tat.I1t1fl'
CIIIHII'

lOOD

If..,.

fUll

'"

RnlrI on Putln'CIo'1

21.1"

,.f Ra1IiIIIId m Pn'l C'fI

'Ill' "" "" '" "" ""

If

M Did. .. ,.. Prvt

""

8USItESS: Kk1cler Morgan EI'IIIVY ~


loP., the M\bn",
Iiqesl pipe1lne mm. imiIed ~~.
" ow,. aboul: 10,500
rnI8s r:I pilIroIewn pmdllds aTlll CO2 ~Qs; 10,000 rnies of
-ual gal ~nes;
illG liquids ~
and lily bul: hnsf.
taa-. kquhd SantI F. PdIc PipWl. P.,t'I., 'is; GA,lX
~
~,
1Q '1l1. 2002 C1p.m:.: pvduclI pipelilea, 39%; ga

PIJIeli*. 30%; CO2, 121.: bUt: trannhill, 19". D-pr. 1'1111: 2.n..
Hu about 1,300 IlmptJpes, 36,000 lIni taiIn. KndII' Morgan,
Inc. 0Wf'II 111" III the unb (2OlJ2 form 'OK~ Cn.man .. CEO c:i
the ger1WIIl partner. Ri::hard D. KinlM: Pr8si!ent: UidsIJeI ~an.
Orp,IHZad: DE. Adchq:
500 Dalu sw.t: HDudon. TX,
TeL: 713-369-9000. lnbnet:: _
.... lllenrlllgM.am.

Kinder Morgan Energy posted solid


results across the board in the fint
quarter of 2003. Each of KMP's fOUT

We believe the w.rrent strength


in industry fundamentals
is sustainable.
Moreover.
contributions
from currently owned assets
should enable Energy Partners
to declare
cash distributions
of $2.63 this year. Ineluding an Increase of its quarterly
cash
distribution
to at least SO.68 per unit by

business segments
performed well, pushtng Its eanrlngs
per ltnrlted ~rsh:lp
unit to SO.50. up $0.03 from
e year-ago
period. Revenues more than doubled year
over year. Year-to-year
opeTa~
Jncmne
grew 17% In the March quarter.
avorable
weather
amdltions,
heJghtened
demand,
and ~pellne
expansions,
all proved highly
ben dal to the company's top line dUring
the interim. TIle strongest inrome growth
came from Its C02 pipelines. adding S42
million to EBIIDA.
a 45% increase from
last year. These profits were driven u~ by
the boost In 011 production at the SAC DC
Unit. We expect the rompany
to pwnp
amut $230 million in additional
development at SACRDC by the end of' 2003.
which should
further
bolster production
levels
there.
Based
on these
positive
trends and its recently Increased quarterly
cash distribution
to SO.64 per common
WIlt, we are antidpating
a strong year for
KMP prohl-wise.
Acquisitions
should
fuel
further
growth in 2004 and the years to come .

nooz.

Also, lis recently

tile fourth quarter.

an-

nounced offering of four million mmrnon


units 19 expected to bring In roughly S152
million In cash. Thus,
considering
the
availability of capital, fw-ther accret:tve acquisitions and e:q>anslon projects are very
likely to enhance
profltablllty
well into
2004. Additionally, management
has noted.
that a significant
partlon of Its cash
will be used to reduce debt and related In
terest expenses. further easing the
of
operating profits to the mttom line. lbis,
coupled with Its effecUve cost -management
strategies.
augurs well far growth oyer the
next 3 to 5 years.
These units are ranked to outpace the
year-ahead market.
By our projections.
KMI' is well suited for Income-oriented mand offen modest appreciation
vestors,
potential out to 2006-2008.
Simon R. ShoucaJr
June 20, 2003

_mD-fo':I;""....._ ...........

D....
.......... De not~ on ash iI.bout 10'" IlIt1w)'Ws cash dimbulion.
s~ I1tmml Ex~. IIlJME. ~ of ...........
~
141; 01. MlIJ.AtIIi1~
Nov.~HDIderI
"02: ~ N&ld NfIIngllIIpOI1 dUll nid-.I~.
diltribuWns, but on hi' proportmI!l shar8s 01 (C) In mIIi:Jn&, .djIa1gd b IpIIs.
(B) Nut dldribution meeting mi:l-JuIy, SO-" KMP'I twlbIrt i'lcorre. In Ihe r.. ,..
01
zarn. *-

Z006 2007 2008

"ll

I~

... .,.,

Ca.!.\"~
ReOl!iYable:s

Target prtc. Rane-

33.5

ii, I

.,.

23.9

40.3

10

..

MARKET CAP: $1.1 billon (LaIF Cap)


CURRENT POSITION
1ID1 2IIQI

.""""

., ....'..... ~

"

cIur;

YlD

38'

..y

...

129.9B9,B18
51,826,429

,.

Energy Par1no.. (KMP) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
was formed in 1992 as En",n liq~ds
m 3.30 3.63
113
UIl
2.47
2.7'
Pipeline, l.P., to own and operale certain
.13
.13
.79
.95
1.43
'.10
En"'n Corp. assets. The Paltneo;hip oIIered
.41
.43
1.05
112
-"
.
22.6 Jliliioo lmiIed partnership unils 10 I!le
.63
.63
.63
'-19
1.39
.56
publ~ in 1992 at $5.75 per unit, adjusted for
.33
12
.3D
26
.39
.70
21
s~1ts, "rough lehman B"'the"- In Febru- 5."
.50 '41
13.81
14.51
5.42
al)' 1997, Richard Kinder lM1d Winiam ".tiIl
26.
1.
26.
1
,U
1<,
Morgan Ionned Kinder Morgan, Inc., which
14,9
15.3
1
19.0
".D
,.56
acqlirtld lhe Partnership's general partner.
.92
1.00
.92
J7
1.12
1.00
In Odober 1999, Kinder Morgan, Inc. was 1.1\ 8.8"
9.6"
6.B"
7."
acquired by K N Energy, whict1 simulla
73.8
428.8
64.3
322..
".D
7'.3
".5
neously changed
its name II Kind" 53.'"1 55.6" 43.'"1 31.,. so. %
53.6%
Morgan, Inc. (KMI).withMr. Kind" as CEO.
10.1
31.3 46.
1~
U
'.6
CAprrAL STRUCTURE _ of 3I3'~
11.9
11.1
113
11.1
1112
115.3
_
.
TCIC.IIDebt $3801.7mi1.Du 5 VrsS800miI\.
.. 11." 11.3' 10."
1.3'
lTo.blS3787.2~.
LTlnMratS190nd.
1r.0'J, 20.6%
17.6' 16.7' 24.07. 36.3'
(IT ird8ftl5l umed. 4.1x)
10.3 10.4
5.3
<I.' d187.3
Lases, Uncapttallzltd:
Annual ",ntH. $42 mI.
Penlilon
P.rtners'

39.7
25.2

.-

78

200"

14.3

22.'
16.5

'8.9

RdIM

OC':. -...n.

Ann'llDtll
Pritt
Gain
Rehn
OIl
(+50~\ 17"
l_
.0
(Nil
'"
Insider DlKiaian ..
J A SO.
0 J f
000
0 0 0 0 1 0
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
InstitutioNI Decisions
10102 "'02
"'02
82
280n

5.'

20.6
6.'

-~~~:.~
.:es..

RIi.edra.'DJ
Mlrkd)

..,
=='Kinde<
1 M.rgan
88

"

6.5

7.3
6.'

67
6.'

liIe NIfItWIlPolII:. AI ~
fBmlIIII. f8dllll .....
i5 ea-ined lnIrrI_ bIIiNrsllll tie nfIIl:te _
is pwidl'II wIIIIouI......,
d ~ bId.~
n*""'USHERISIIIOTRr
MSIIlLf OIlMrAAOItSOIICMSSlONSHERnI:.TIIis~is.i:lJb''''''~_,~mi''.''I
__
DpM
III... 'M ........
INIlI, ..........
".,
....................
.-.
........
-'diI) ......... *'hIIi: ~
MftIia. pnMl

now

now

<:oonpo
, .. ""',stoct's ....
PrbStabIIIIy

.. '

Price Growth ,. .. tIMIct


E.mlnp
PNdicbblIly

I',

e.IS
SO
80

:11:

II',

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-6
Page 3 of 5

TEPPCO4 _PARTNERS
NYSE1l'p
...".,

7.1%

lIIIlIIESS

3
3

WID
l[CHNICAl

.....
,
,.1,"1,

1"'1'",

","'"'"

'1

, ,..,
II

; 1I'hdl

Institutional Dttdsions
IQ2Il1 oI/R_Z

....:~

1887

44
26

95SO

42
304

10495

-4.11!1

..
_.
-.-

1.43
.15
.55
.50
9.11

1.5
5

......

~5

2.09

2.CO

2.41

He

.85
.83
.81
8.57

121
1.11
.~
8.79

U7
1.20

1.54
1.33
.90
9.41

1.90
1.43

108

".

..

..

.Il
6.0%

.9fI
10.9'

12.6
.16

Leu., Uncapitalized: 59.5 ml.


No Didined Bend hnslon Plan

8.51
183.6
51.9"
23.5
372

..

9.11\
14.4"
2.8"

a"

ZOO2 3131'"

=~=~~::
=:~:~
IAvg c.l)

.81

.n
9.19
19.00
9.0
.59
8.51

29.00
10.1

l.n
9.AS

2.52

1.95
1.61
1.55
1.75
1.1.4
.19
1D.,2S 7.fil

10.1

19.00
1Z.1

1966
17.1

i3

.70

.89

2!IJl)

.M
8.5'

2 .1

~".

6,51"

7.51

6.3'

31.0
280.8

13.9
366.9

3.33

3.03

z.M

3.24

1.91
1.85
2.67

1.89
2.00
2.09
9.58

1.84
2,15
2.66

1.19
1.35
.l.4B
16.34

7.sD
19.00
12.4

."

J2.7D
122

Curnllll.l.i8tl.

_
99 1

!2

.92

7.81

8.71

1.3'

1.8'

203.7 216.0 222.1 429.6 1934.9 3087.9 35392 324U


sm "9.01 &..31 56.3' 27.11 7,4, 5.lI'Io 5.5' .51
23.1
23.3
23.4
23.1 26.9
32.1
352
45.9
86.0
46.5
46.7
58.1
61.3
53.3
n1
71.4
91.9 117.9

..

..

..

10.4'
17.3'
4.4'

75'

10.51
16.9'
2.3'

86%

12..3'
202'"
4.K

..

..

..

715'

3.1'

..

2.5'
5.1

19.5
~.8
835.8
m.B
315.1
12.8'
8.9"

12.a% 10.4'
20210 2J!I'Ii.
31.4'
4.J'I,
NMF 4.5'
7ft;
86'

t~,

..

2.6"
d385.3

24.6%

12'

NW

V-l'lo

v.nus.u~.

..

3.6'
dGl

730.5 1371.1
.543.2
891.8
9.1%
16.9%

BUSINESS: TEPPCO Partnms, LP. is I pubk:ly bded IT'Ia5W


1m.1Id ~ip
wtIich optntB ttnugh
TEPPCO awns 0118 II tile Iqes1 I3r& pipelinaI of reflM!d

Ui i~~~::

360.0.
se 0

".
16.8

.79

1041

2004
(1.7~
.us
4.15
"U
1.75
141
1.55
f.JO
105

tUD
.....

93.0

12.0

81.D

23.11

DVAl.UELJlEPUB~ItC.
ItnInllelpll'URiI
lue
"Cut. ~,.

U,df

EwNngs,.lWt A
DtlLDId'dperUlllt
CIpUplllding pIf unll

BooII..,..,.,UIIIt

""

""lir;p~_

s:: ~ -

U
AVllklnn/ERrio

~_...

.Ui
.IS

A.vlI"",,'CU'tY"1IkI

no

..200 RMlllIBlWl

tn

N'

~
71.0

.OG

lID
6.7'1.
7.6%
131'
.1flli
NMF HIE
NMF HIE

OpenIng...

U5 ~
!,!III
151 ..... Prolt liliiii1
Hi IncarH tu An
,J.'" NItProttIlarP
no WcD.inBc.'~
lDIlgt.... DIbI ($II1II1
"10 PriMn' C~
7.51 Rnn.TatII~

,M

.~

.F
.F

1.50
1711
125
t1.J5
MOO

R_PJRdo

--

4ODO
ill

5.45

RIIIInIIII hrtnllll'tID'1

RlIIIinIlIIto,.,,-.c.,
AI Dill to NIl: Praf

UI

..
I.'"

na
HI

4.ni
JOG

1550
1111

'0.01
fJA
HIE
HIE

seonn.l PI gdMRIg ~
T_
Enlem Pnlducb ~
Compall)' is
ndnct SUbUliIrJ of DI.D: E-v)' Corp, whdr. &is
IS the genmll p.tJ1III' r1 TEPf'CO. loP. cr.tmIIl .. CEO: .1m

.n

:ra~==~~~ItI:U:~-rE~~
:~2s~~P~~T::::n:,=~
..
n'"

...1Id
nwtets aude 011811:1
PI. IIIId IJlII'IIlI llId ~
50.2
668J1 366:8 434]
TEPPCO
is performing
as expected.

Debt Due
Other

13.1D
40.<5
16.0

191.3

202' 13.6' 22.9% V.l1


27."
12.0:'
68.8 61.3
!16.3
51.1
37.3
40.4
356.~ 349.5 339..5 326.5 309.5 421.7
257.4 269.6 27604 290.3 303.0 127.2

"rtt-~Unb53.a12,697unils.
-.. 01'3114113
MARKETCAP: $1.1 blllDn (IicIICI'1

=tgry

10.3

UI.

TNI Delli "407.2 mil. Due In 5 Yrs $432.0 mil.


LT Dlbt $14072 rnII. LTInUrwst.$80.Dmii.
(1DbI1n-st caveqge 2.7x)

25.5
225.9

1.&1

2011

III

.68
1.10
.70
8.12

CURRENTPOSrTJ)N

'I

1.41

Ca~~
~..

.........

'yr.
3 yr.

161
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 168 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
5.63 513
6.33 6.r.o 1.02 1.45 1.66 14.49 li6.n ~.C
81.!iIl 6025 aM

1S1BS 1989 1990

Pc1Znl
...

CAPITAl STRUCTURE u gf 3131m

"

.,,,''..U't

~ 101. RE1UIII5IJ
1m.J

49
25

10700

...

www.tr:ppc:o.a:m.

1__

profitable in 2003. but the ptpeUne's operAlthough earnings


per unit in the March ations are adding slgnlftcant
capadty
to
ANNUAl RATES Pm
Pul
EsrIlW-"12
period were slightly
lower than year-ago
TEPPCO's
system. TEPPCO has increased
~~IIIJ
'~~~% :~'" -:"
results,
due to a higher number of wtits Its equity position
to about 50% In the
''Cash Flow"
1.5%
3.0%
10.0"
outstandJng.
TEPPCO's
operations
are ex
recent quarter.
panding
nkely.
As new businesses
ac- 'lEPPCO
is increasing
Its
capitalBootValue
4.0% $.,5%
5.~"
quired
over the past year are fully In- spending
budget
a bit. lEPPCO
plans
tegrated. we expect earnings per unit will to expand tts gas-gatherlng system. one of
CIllo
QUARTERLYREYEH1JES(I'" Filii
begin to advance.
the company's
most
promising
assets.
The
-.1111., r.31 Jun. StD.3Q Dec.31 'ur
Most
of the cOIIlpany's
segments
~
prqject Is expected to cost about $65 mIJ.
75tH 747.77592 830.33087 reporting
strong
results.
TEPPCO lion and wIU probably be slightly accreti'"
ZDQ1
785.Z1056.5 990.8 706.7
posted dramatlc
revenue gains. as well as to earnings in the first year. To finance
zorn:
631.1 SM.3 880.9
641.9
:U:~~ net-Income advances of about 26% In the the .~J
the rnrnnany will be offering
2103 1099.2 110
lID
17U 4100
-"T
ma.t
1020 'S
'D50 1050 C20D Man:h period, helped in large part by am- allO er two mllllon units. as well as an
t-==-+,=';:;i==;;:;:==~"-'r=-j trtbutions from the Val Verde. the Chapar- additJonal debt offering. Howevt:r. we ex

17.=:::=::::::~-=::'::::':::'::-=:=::==-:=l

=~ 19:~ gjt ~:=

t.::::=-':F."",=,,;;:;:;;;;;;::=.;;-.y::."--~

~!-;

J:.-r.I'ecl.

:t'h~g

e~
1Iar.s~~':u~~.31
ZOIO .00
.35
.41
2001
.55
.54
.35
2DQ2 .~
.39
...8

.40
..46

~:
1.89
1.&4
1.79

::

:::

::~ ~e

:~

(AI Based 011'"

~:J~~
~~g

~~tsg~~ ~:ut~~~~':.~~~
and that the ensuing

the Midstream
segment.
which currently
accounts for about 20% of net profit, and
offen> wide expansion
polential.

1owns::;am ld..,gment

Is bj,ne.
c
QUAR1BU.YIHST.IlaUlll)ting
rom
e co
er winter weat
er.
...
l'....
fill as wen as lower inventories. Demand
endl' lIar.31
SlIp.3D Dld1 Var for propane
and other
ref"tned products
..45
.45
.475 .475 1.85 remains
strong.
As such. higher
trans.
.475
.50
.50
.52S
porta lion volumes and tariffs are boosti~
2la2
.~
~
.~
~5
2.35 profitability
nicely at this segment.
The
ZII03 :60
.625 "
Centennial
pipeline
probably
won't
be

=1.

.53

J.D..

i~

untimely

in..,. .......

1IIIIIlI"~

't.QY a large

r.iPP
~ 'i:":'tly
y.

Adam Rosner

divi-

June 20. 2003


C.... ,-IlJ'I;F .. ndIIl8:rMgtIl
Stoa:s firie. Se.billt}'
PIb CiIDWth ,......
Eamlnp PNlktabiItJ

dIl..."'''.'''''pm
.. .....ng.,...- .. dol:nri;.......-n
-nz fR*d
..

will be mod

raised
Its distribution
slig
w'c
ould be or
Interest
to tnanne
Investors.
Nonetheless,
our CUJTent projections indicate that these
umts
offer
only
limited
capltal~
appreciation
potenUai (or the 3- to Syear
horizon_

Goes ex about.., July. DisHlulion


da18ll.-ty
February. May. AUSlusi. _
No- (0) In millOn', 1dJuSl8db stod: spit.
YIftDr.
(C) Indudes inl.angIbIes. H 12f31102$482.3
. F.Cl~ Il'IIkfiII ~ ........
'IIUte5 ~
III tit ,.......
a plMlell '*"uc...-s fllIIJ"lI.

2l1li1....
UIe ~~,.
~I
__
IH(PuausHER15N01R(~lllflORANY(Il.RORSOROIIlIDSSIOIIISKlRU"111i5~&.dJb5lltlsl:Jibtln
If
n:pnAall '""'" .....
~
IIItI:hnir. ............

units

dend yield. And.

payme;!,mI..S8.96IItT.

dilll.ed unb Dlllsandi15I. ExcUdes noma.mg ga.ns (lDssn1. '01,


S.34. NI!Xl:.nng. npIlI1 du."
July.
(HI Next dlsl'httion rreetilg aboul: mid-JuI)'.

.IIIJ.

est.
These

l:i:~~~~

dilution

__

CI"

",

,II:

B
100
110
10
11'.

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-6
Page 4 of-S-

ENTERPRISE PROD. NYSEEPD


TIlEUIIIESS
SAmY
TECHNICAL

3 RIi5rll2/lm
3 Nr.12J'ZWl
3 Rwd4t11JDl

I
RdiIIiI~"1Ce
2-b 1 lfIIlI !lI1l2

....
Low

...,

JASONP

20

'.

........
" ,""'

1(11.1

p~,

" """
ProdLds Partne",.
16

4511

'1"

CAPITAl.. STRUCTURE a of Y.J111D


Tatal DeOt $2CI01.5 mi. DOl m 5 Yr5S1650 mi.
LT Debt 111186.6mi. LT ntRrn1 $48.0 mil.
(L T infIn5I &amBd: 2.2J:)
(581. d Capl)
UacaplWiud:: Annual n!ntilts 1UI.3 mil.

DdIIlea Senll'l'l Palston Plan

PkIStDdr.
None
Partners'C.p/tIII188,472,070
unis
(as of 'la, 1. 2OD3)
MARKET CAP: $4A bilion lilid ClIp)
!DO,
CURRENT POSITION

c...mll1I.Auets

ANNUAl. RAlES

"_1-"'1

SO.3

Y.J1~3

..
"..

41.3

102.0

649.1
109.B
15.0

031.'

162..0

Put

Pat

Est'd'lO-'02

1.Yn.

Sf ..

Ig ......

..
.. 3o"
.. 7.'"
..
-- 8.'"
.. 10.0"
-.. B.O"
-.
llUAIlTEllLTREVENUES~.aj
FuU
--

"CuhFkM"
Eanmp
Dividends
BookValue

-....
.....
-

399.'
161.4
82
637.6
108.1
15.0
588.3
721.4

32S.D
'092

a.lITt!ntUab.

....
......

137.B
26'3
69.4

--

Oth ..

Ro __

,..,
"..

518.8
8<2

=~b"

2008

..... ....

J2

.'

luJ1 Ju .. 30 SeD.3t Dec. 3'


763.7 604.0 nl.9 993.6
2101
838.4 !l6a4 729.6 603.3
2ID2
671.3 193.3 949.3 1209.9
2103
'43\.6 If ..
filii 10114
,OJI)
1D1D
'lII1 'D"
ARNE PER IIIIT II. D
Mar.31 Jllft.:ID Sep.3D o.c. 31
ZI9CI
.43
.31
.21
.30
:mol
.23
.32
.63
.32
.06
.65
.14
II
Z1G'
ZDa3
.25
. .32 .3J
.31
.n .3J .:U
ea. CNARTalLY DlS1llIBlIT1DtIS PAD II
"ou lar.31 JIln.30 Sep.3' Dec.31
1991
.225
.225
.225 225
.25
25
.263 .263
2101
II5
II5 .294 .313
:mo2
33S
.3'3
.335 .345
2903
.345
363

y3073.'
3'79.7
3623B
4135

.,7D

,.,
,..,
1.32
1.39

.54
1.111
UD
Full

y..,
.90

\.03
1.16
\.33

10
16

12

I""

....
....
"" "-.
"
.. ""
''..
. 1

1,..

.J9
\.08

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..

..

..

..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..

..
..

..

..

..

..
..

..
..

..

..

..
..
..
..
..

..
..

..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..

..
..

..
..
..
..

J2
'lI
.16

...
"..,
...

4.15

'33'"

751

11.1

U1

.63
i...

U\
731.1 1333.0
7.3%

10.8%

,,,

120.3

191

'b'

..

..
'.11\

50\

54.

d146.6
166.0
".0
562.5 789.5
6.81 13.51
15.?'10
5.6"
,.\ 1.1'

93\

58\

,U.

'38
cVALUUIPUB IIC.

2990 2001 20~2113


2004
I
1110 '115
u...
10.73
lUS Rr.iUIi pi!' IJIit
\.55
1I1S
1.70
1.75 '"Cat! Fbr" 1* Unit
\.69
115
U,
Enn&1 pIJ LWt ...
1.32
1.39
54
f.10
DIsL Dld'd per l.Hl
\.65
f.5D
1.16
\.33
.10
1...
.5D
.
CIIIp'l Spendln,,1*' Unil
1.1.
1UD
6-"
'54
I." I. YIbpw IWI.
168.87 17421 1 ''95 flUD
1OS.
1m."
''''''''i
'
1.1
14.7
A"S Ana' PIE Ratio
39.'
b7
RtIItiYt Pit: Rdo
.75
.. 26
UK
9.0"
A"IAllJI'Ih'tYIIld
5.'"
6'\
3013.1 3119.7 36l3!
.110 RnlllUII~
9.31, 10.1'
7.1%
1511 fIR
11511
51.9
fOi
".1
0.,el,:,"~1I)
220S 236.6
!S.
ZJ5
JI5
..
.. 1.6'4
.1 1nan11u Ra1I
<I,. ..".
71\
7A\
7.'"
OS, 109.6 dB3.8 d1U 10.0 -i
f ..
(lnNII1
IS", 2231.~
f ...
"".0
'""i.T... _1""'1

....U.
...

.. ..... ..-

... ..,

~,. ::...

936.0
236\

1b'4
64\

..

.....

,.. ,..
,.. ........
,'"
.......
,... ,... ""1
""

...

17111

..

1146.9
13.1%
10.61

ISIS

H'\

15.""

ami ~

"26

R.....

61\

"'"

1ol11CIp'I

fU"

RdliMd1D Pwi.'s Cip


All Dial ID NIl Prof

""

""

EII1Ilrprise ProcIuds PartrMn, lP . ill one of ttla


~
d .aUral V- and nanl va iquids
prncessng. hdionation, hnspDl1illl)f1, and sEnge BYEes.. lis
IISRts lII8 oelJllRlPhi::B1yfocused m th8 u.s. Gulf Coasl:. EnWprU-'t'a1Ye iI; spprm:i'rGI)' 15 bliln. Aaiund At:sdian G_ LlC,
4/1,Clr, 5hel Ol'a l.otJiIiI_ arxl MUssippi NOl bulil .... 1111199.

2002 opomng bane: fral:lonabon, 3Ko; pipeline, 65%; pg:as.


ilg. (4%). 2002 dspI. '*- 2.7 ... HIs about 782~,
36.000
unlholdln.
awns 65% d lie IlIIIs (51U3pmspecl.us).
Ch.man: Dan L Duncan. Presidenl & CEO: 0.5. Andras. arg.:
TX. AdIna:
North Loop W..t, SUItIt 700, HouIbI, IX
71OOIS. Tit: (113)880-6500.
InWMI: ..... lIpplp.CXIITL

Products
Partners
is
achieving good results In a dJftlcult
operating environment. Due to the
spike in natural gas prices, the company
minimized the amount of natural gas Uqutds (NGLs) extracted from natural
gas.
ThIs resulted In lower demand for Entergrise'S NGL pipeline and storage fadUtles.
till, first-quarter per-unU earnings came
in at SO.25. thanks to outstanding results
In the partnership's
Pipeline
business.
Gross margin more than doubled over last
year. attributable to contributions from
the MldAmertca and Seminole pipelines
acquired last year. Clearly, the Pipeline
segment has become the foremost earnings
driver In the company's portfolio.
The Processing
segmenl abo had a
strong quarter. For this group, higher
NGL prices proved benefldal. as gross ~
erating margins Improved significant y
over last year. Increased demand for
propane and nannal butane also crlded resuits. and helped to more than offset the
detriment of lower NGL production. LookIng ahead. management expects the
replenishment of low propane and butane
inventory levels. which have been recently

depleted. to drive continued margin improvement in this segment. We look for


!he partnershlp
to post earnings of S 1.20 a
unit In 2003.
The company recently raised its cash
distribution rate. Enterprise's Pipeline
business generated enough feebased cash
flow to warrant a 5.1% Increase In the annual cash payout. 10 $1.45 a unit. This Is
In Une with management's target 10% annual growth In the cash dtstrlbuUon. Instead of mmpensatlng partners, the com
pany plans to reinvest cash In excess of
the distribution back Into the business to
fund facility expansion and other growth
lnitl.aUves. Too. the company will use the
r=edS
from a recent ~u1ty offering
about S223 million,) to pay own deM_We
believe Enterprise will continue to seek
out acqu:ls1t:1onoppmtumtles that fit In
with its long-term
growth obJectlves.
The upside for distribution growth
makes this stock a compelling choice
for income investors. But. 3- to 57:::
appreciation Is below the Wdue
.
median. and the units ~
an average
choice for near-term price perfonnance.
Edward Plank
June 20. 2003

BUSINESS:
IMdOg il~

Enterprise

".nagenJ!!fd
xrn

I'.

....

,m
...,. ......tool1oI'
.,\
"'".511 "..,.... Rnn on PIm.n'CsD' "'"
,....
.M'
UK
.M'

1200.9

II 2m v-. ...
. . M 5 rl5ftlllll. tacIUII mIlImI n. au.... IrlIm ~
II8inelIIo tIr rBillft ..
lHEPuausH[A15=~'i?PO.SIBlJTOIIAilYEARO~OA_S5IONSH(Al
... TIIiI.~il.Sh:lyb~_-'~"~_"DpIll

~I..,.., ~

"" TOt RETlN SIDJ

",

"""'1:11

Nurt IImlilllJl Alpert due mil.July.

"
24

~D""-"'~~'d"~--lt------~~,jtll""-~~
s~.

....

2006 2007

12.0

..

d,rwritlen by Lehman B!OIhlIrs. SUbsequen'

Rocr:ivables
~ntDry (Ayg Cst)

Tarvel Price Rane-

'.S

to the dJering. lie


company
had
100,444,444 OOlMlonunils and 47,208,888
subordinated units outstanding. adjusted for
a stock spll

15.0

II
..

Co ~lLl
......

'2 7
17.8

25.8

II

~/"IIIII'

Enle!prise
LP. was 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1~999
in 1968. Th' Partne",hip on'red
..
..
..
.. 50'
..
..
..
..
..
22,500,000 limiod partnernhip common
A2
..
..
..
..
unrts tl the putlI~ on May 13, 1998 al a
J1
..
..
..
..
prioe 01 $11.13 PO! unt The deal was uo.16

No

26.3
"3

Laaa.

15.9
'.1

it6::aJ,eo:"r'$Jal

37

18
2510

7.

2 1 0 022
100
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
o 1 0 000 0 0 0

-. ....

10.3

rtJ% 1.151~ 6.2%

lU)
tlllF

SlI'lIlgDI

""

Institutional Deci..ians
~I

.,

110

~ 1:50~1 ""

25
+10%
lR5ida Dec15iDn5

...,

~':..

Ann,latal
Rnrm

Glill

High:

Low:

.. III
IiIrdiaol:

- l:~
0inI~:J~

2OQ6.-QI PROJECTIONS
Price

LEGfNDS

.is (lm .... "'1I)

IIl1J,

23 221:RAOO 19 4(T

WCENT
p~c

_ ..- -

Goes .... Iats July.~.


dstbltion
pa)'llMlnt D Qusrtws ma, IXII m.n dllll CD dlanv- 11'1
dates. rrid February, May, August.~.
sUa outclanding.

~.., ........ *d'IIIi: .........

1IMIf" ~

III

'.

is III"~

..,..

*"'"*=

....-es

III

1aWIr. ~

PrIQ StlbillJ
Pm Growth
Eamlnp PrHidllbllty

.~

90
1110
40

litd.

: II:

1.1'.

Docket No. P-oJ-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-6
Page 5 of 5

KINDER MORGAN INCI NYSEKMI


w
I

PR~E

lIIEUIiESS

1 RlfdZi1llll

wm

TECHNlCAl

3 ......
".DO_

.15

IIElJ,

High:
Low:

NnllI21&Q

13.~
9.2

17.9
13.8

20.0
12.4

.di ...:

202
13.5

~ no
75

,]1"

24.1

'0

' . 7
122

20.'

MIIkdJ

3.fa!'-2.,p1

1m

..."., ,.... ......


...... "",
.....
li'!'II--'

.,1

',' .'"

."

...." ...

..

",."

as 01 ~11Q:J

IlARKET CAP: 11.5 blnlon (lJIrge ClIP)


CURRENT POSrrlON
2002
3/3111J
200'

~ntory

(Avg

"""'...,....

CUm!nt
Debt

Assvts

Due

""""
Cunnt

liab.

Cost)

191.4

35.'
130.3

62.0

62.8

".,.
Flow"
Eemi'lgs
DiYidencis
Book

v_

-....
.....
....
-.........
....
-

.....
eo.

""
,..,

""
eo.

2QOl

2QO'

eo,'

1I!11

2QO'

,..,

36.'

81.6
25 .

.... ".5
868.'
.....
'.U

151.S
421.0 4ffii
230.9

830.'

,,,,,.
,.""

121.6
281.2

333.2

501.3
211l.8

2575
1118.5

ANNUALRATES Pat
at dlqt li* ifI1

Re_ ....

"

'~

,..,

211.7
596.4

Est'd .... 01

,,"-

1.(1%

-10.5%

-3.5"
16.0,;

6.011.
-3.0%

4.0%
-12.5%

22.""
2~""

,.5"

10.a,;
95"
lIJARlERLY REYBIIE5II "'4
.... .31 JIn' Sep,JI [lIU1
Y.,
480.5 sl'.8
7'9.1 934.' 2713.7
325.2 216.9 227.0 283.' 1054.9
291.4 213.7 225.1 285.1 '.15.'
318.9 220
Z41
2J5.1 1075
32IJ
m H5 325 mill
EAMIIGS ftR SHARE A
full
"r.31
.Jan.3I Sea.3D Dlt.31
Y.lll
.22
.23
1.28
.47
.41
.49
.60
1.91
.71
.59
.66
.82
2.711
.
.90
.17
.75
18
.71
.n 1.07 115
lIJARTfRly DMlEllllS PAID ..
lIar.31 Jun.3I ~.30 Dec..31 Y.2Il
.2Il
.2Il
115
.65
.05
.05
.05
.05
.2Il
.05
.05
.05
.05
.2Il
.05
.10
.1.
.30
.
.'5

,.,

."

.,

.."

,.u

1995
26.19

12

l<2

112

.rr
1.8'

10.13
4 .13
14.0

...

''''
1103.4

...

....

ID

35.6'

d26.8
315.6

. ..
434.3

"'

,...
",.

,...

""

..73"" ".''''.,. .....,,...

Worglllfl (b1nIIIy K to! Erugyj IM'III NabnI


Gas Pipeline (NGPl).m ball gas disIbitiJn QXnpllnies; .Iso opBUill IUidll' Morgan Energy P....
, ItHt ~
pipeIne mast8r
nlllld par!nlnhip. 2002 pretax ~:
gas hnsfXNlion and
..
, 46"; IIlllfts:l II ICMEl'IIIiJY,42%; IociII pi dlStriJuti:Jn,
8"; Jlbwer genswtUn and 011_, 4". kquftll MilCon,
'915;
BUSINESS:

Kinder

"'"

... ...

, ,,.

,,~

1481

...'"
U,
12.1'
,,.
,. 5.6' ,.

11.5'

...

'64

2001 2002 2003


834
US
851
<l5
2.00
'.65
'./5
'~7 m
1./5
JO
20
1.4,
1.15
I."
1814
ZO.'D
123.93 1
'/0.
15.1
21.0
15
1.38

"aIL

'05"
46.1'
100'
238'
41.4'

"...

.70

d691.5 ... 55
2680.0 31111
2260.0 2355.0
6.1%
10.6'11. 14.6'9.5" 13.~

12'

'" 52'
ClVALWoLHM
2."
. 75

lie.

RMnutlplflll

t75

"',

.."'"-

DIf'"III

"10 C.......

(:;

pIl'

A"8 All .., PIE. ROo


PIE Rda

,.. ...
'" ==
,.'" ..._ .....
""
1150

- -....

....._1Ioiil
-1"'.'
...

lUll nc-.Tu

1"
1.3,

,,.,

A'II All .., Div'd Y'1IId

"-'"

.......

"-J!J

BoatYllulIlll''''

R*tin

&-41
'Ull

"CuhAa. ....

175 ~F*IhA
1." DWdl Decl'd
Cap' Sp.ding

-::

1015.3 '015
41.1% 44.5lI
106.5
'10
343.'
3820
33

,,.

OIl'

3 .

I I
I
1996 1897 1998 19S5t 2000
31.16 ".86 83.97 15.49 23.10
.. 8
2.52
223
'.72
1-"
1.10
lA3
183
-" 128
.7,
.7.
.10
.65
20
3.14
120
'.48
11.44 1262 11.14 14.79 15.10
<S.
11 61 14.
15.1
172
15.7
30.'
21'
.118
1.88
1.74
121
3.191
3.2%
'4432 2145.1 4381.8 1745.5 2113.1
5,.
12.41 27,911101. 5'A.
12K
56.0 195~ 144.3 1002
512
63.8
m 708 72'
36.0" 31.5' 38." 16.9'
4.4,
1.6\
4.4'
5.4"
d43.8 d220.3 dS26.ll d861.4 d935.1
423.7 553' 3515.0 3568.' 2154.0
52U
613.1 1223.8 1665.8 1191.4
8.4% 8.11'4 3.\
.20
12.1' 1l6'
1.6\
1.71
1.1'
'K
I

'73

16.1

-,.. .....--..,
' .. ""'"

15

"" T01. RT1AlI ilII

101

.....

....
"""

lit"

II

,.3

''''

"-

"'11'' 1

"

.. 922

... ." ."


..'"

eaf'~
Re""""""

".1"

.... . .......

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994


16.11 18.41 18.19 11.84 21.88 26.21
1.91
1.48
,-" 220 2."
1."
.56
.51
.84
.55
1.05
l'
.17
57
.52
.61
.65
.95
1.35
1.72
220
2.14
2.80
1.71
8.1lS 8.42
U,
U4
8.52
9.52
'.52
, 7 Z2.'" 41
43
21.15
1.34
.7
11.1
N..- 16.0 17.3
13.1
13.5
15.5
19.1
,.33
NIF
.97
1.31
.82
128
.82
5.5,,"
4.6'
5."
4.'%
404'
CAprrAl STRUCTURE as of 3/31103
1083.9
483.'
Tml ~bt 13460.1 mil.Du. WI.5y~ $1025 rriI
1711
12.0%
IT DlIM$3126.9 mi. lTIJIl:""'$110rnil
262
50'
Includell SZ75 mil. prMerred .ade5 cl OI~r
24.3
34.'
(Tatal in1en!st earned: 4. b)
31.B'
laun, Uncapftallud Annuli!Rantlls 110 mi.
'2\
Penllon AsMts-Um $147.6 mi. Obllil. 1162.2
24.8
".
m~
231.8 334.6
211.4 402.4
PId Stodr. None
Common Sbx:k 122,073,674 shs. (46% aI c.p'Q
6.4'
1.5'
1987 1988
15.M 16.38
1.8,
120
.16
.17

II

I'll'

Institutional Decisions

'07

..

- ,',e- .

11'1t'

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

.... 3
1989

,,.
..... ._._ . "
"
----

_e ___

I ,,1'1,11"

000000021
0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2

IIS1lI

T.rget Pric. Range


20 2007 2008

SIIt1lgll

R.tum

Gain

55.6
.2.3

57.5
30.0

n.olClsll~a.p!fl

JASQNDJfll

60.0
42.9

=-:~I

ib~

(i~~\ 1'"
10%

...."".
....:.:::.. ~....'"

40.3
22.3

LEGENDS

+35%
Insider Decismna

36.0

27.'
18.0

2DlI&-&B PROJECTIONS
~~RbIe"II!II'!'~
Ann' TlIbI
Price

55 33!:fRAllO 17 Oe,"inu IU)


P,RATJJ. 1 01jlllVll
Y1D 2.9%
11.' RElATNE

coo

....

B.'"

W
......~'II"'.'

1.10

""
'400

"-'"
'35
IlII

,.'"
..'"
....

Lao.T....... 11nII)
"" ....
""
,,. t.'"
'''' ,t.'"
""
"" ' .... ,...-1 U.Q%
,."

fU'"

1.5"

....

''"' ''"' .'" ""

RaUn llIlTDtIICap'!
R...... lIfIShr.ElI~
RdaIntd tEl Con Eq
AI Dj,'ds III ..... Pruf

fl'"

"'"

""

KindII' Magan, 1M!9. '02 depr. ratIl: 1.6"'. Has IIbI 2,700."pk..
38,600 5tDD.hoIcIln ...... Ka1dIIf owns 19."" IithII CClImIDI'I siDct;
01:.. Cllrarsldilllckn DIm 3.2%; (3103 prtI:IIy). ChHman & CEO:
Rd.-d D. KndIw; PresGenl: Michael C. UorglIn. Inc.: Kansas. Adcnu: 500 Dabl sn.t, I. 1DOO,HouA:In, TX 77002. Te!8pI'Ione: 713-369-9000. ,....
_.lildtlmKllpll.1DIL

impact on cash flow. Indeed, KMP ought to


Kinder Morgan (KMl) posted strong
results In the first quarter of 2003. The contJnue to produce high rates' of retwn on
over the
next
several
company's eaJTl1ngs per share increased to investments
SO.90. up 27% from SO.71a share a year quarters. MeanwlUle, since KMI appears
ago. KMJ's opera~
margJns Improved on to be well on track to generate between
the strength of a
increase in total reve- S400 mtllion-S450 mtllton in free cash flow
nues. the bulk of whJch was attributable to this year, strong industry fundamentals
strong revenue Influx rrom natural gas suggest that this trend may well oontlnue
storage and transportation. Also. Jower next. year. Too. management has noted
C&A expenses
helped to further
widen
that the excess cash will be used. for debt
margins In the interim. Us rore gas seg- reduction. and share repurchases. whtch
ments. Natural Gas Pipeline and Trans- should enhance share-net in 2004.
Colorado Pipeline. both heJped to bolster We
re:rnain
owd:timistic
about
gr
over the long
~ts.
Meanwhile. a 24% year-to-year sustainable
in inmme from its investment in tenn. We believe that the company's
ability to generate soUd free cash now will
Kinder Morgan Energy Partn"", (KMP)
proved the prlmary drlvlng force behind
enabJe further acquisitions. which, judging
the rompany's earnings advance to Sill
by recent success. may well enhance:trofmilHon. versus $88-4 million in the year- UabllJty. Additionally. the lIkeUh
of
ago
period.
We expect
these
postUve
pipeline :s.8nsJon projects in the future
trends In organic growth. as well as contrl- augurs w
for bottom-line growth over
buUons from acquisitions, to continue for the next 3 to 5 years.
the remaJnder of this year into 2004.
These timely shares are well suited
Solid growth is likely to continue in for
momentum-oriented
investors.
2004. We believe KMJ will reaf<M
further Moreove:c.Its strong dividends and decent
benefits from Its equJty stake in
P. We apIfedatlon potentJal over the 2006-2008
do not expect the recent infonnal SEe in- pu make It a good choice.
vesUgaUon of KMP to have any material Simon R. Shoucair
June 20. 2003

J.!,"""""""'......,
.......I,"I"""' -.. ....f..................
...,...k...

(Aj.....,
.............'87,,'''''"'
--,3l:;
0$3 . ': ~lV .
Ex:!.
nDmlC1lImgIBns:
6Ot!; '88,
Nu:l1IaM1g1 ntpat 1M mid-.llly.
lt plan availlblt
'89, 1~: "90.11.80; '91. dlT20; '1M, d46t!; 'ill, (BI Nut divldend:::1.
lIIId-Aug.SIICOIId (elln rnIIiDns, IMljYstedb &pits.
d1Bf; '99, d2J; W. S; "01, cl11; '02. d2!. q"-". goes ex In !y. AppnDl. diYiI:Iend
ZlIl1 YaIue .... ~
.. AI ~
~.
fI~
IrIIIImf ~ call1ird Irlllll -.ces IlIIn!d la bI! rBClle .l1li is plfilell lIIIaa nmrIlIin " ~ Uid.
rIlE PUlIUStEIllS.:JT Rf POIISlllf. 011AllYf.RADfa ORClMISSIOIISHt.RUI.. T...........
isSlldyb'~_.II_liIL
...... aII.
pM
" .., lit .......
1hIIIt *nil. u--.. II MJ fD*t. dI:r:Uit ..., ........
~
II .....
.". ......
dtdIIa1iL ~
--..
pral.I:1

C"'""1,:nc.'N"'""........
Stalallly
Stock's

..55

PIb GnI"" PvIIi&ta.EarIlI. Pndic:lUlftJ

7D
60

I.

,II.

'f'

Docket No
Workpaper tI 5 to. P-03-4
FJH6
Page 1 of 8

.'.

o
N

Z
::>
J

------.

Standard & Poor's


11111

".
"1.J
50.8

272
,529

l52

40'
,278
"8
,B87
777
103
119
010
513
'51
!O.7
DB3
116

Not
Tlngtbl.
Booll
(lIBhr)

1.83
15.75
14.56
3.40
8.00
12.14
15.81
9.11
2.95

C "
Flow

(1IS1lrl

4.87

1.13

38.59
N.,
No,
1388

Mqo'1l1.

1.40
32.22
046.09
5.32

...

33.85
12.63
24.07
34.83
15.83
2.89.

. 0.'1
1.42
0.55

l.n
dO.71

1,44

d7.eo

N.,

d4.75
0.38

2.9B
11.08
5.41

"6
318

14.50

141
104
118

15.72
1.47
2.32

1.57

28.35

5.85

2.79
064

'.80
4.25
21.95
8.06

",

113

9.49

5.6
147

13.82
15.82

1.53

6.'1
17.41.
14.26
11.90
17.91
5.59

35.45
78.86

"
12
10
18
17
58

BSOUARE Corp

71lB

8T Group pic ADA


BTU Inl.matlonel
BUCA Inc
Buck..... Plnr, l.P.

8108
8107
7/19

810'
......
8107
7/25
7/25

40

7130
8/18

10

",
11

7/22
7127

22
18

8/2'
7118
7111
8/28

10
43
35
15

8120
8113
8108
7/25

......

36.98 15 7/2'
26.93 .18 7/27

lOR rep lord prior 10 315-94.

8.

0'11

85 7/18

'0'
"6
'3.5

N'9

'0
14

8108

24.51
7.89

'"

((1.41

16 7/23
25
......
11
69 7/31
15 8/0'

'4.9

1l'215.44

PIE

PI1arv , D.t11
HIlt v.., 0111
Nlm,oIluul

25.60
23.18
21.59
44,45
.18,80

2.B9
10.00
10.80

56'

'"

Pr1e- Z001 R,p'

d5.09
2.81
4.25

Month
("

Buckeyl Technolog1..
Buckle Inc
BuildIng Ma18ri1lsHklg
Bunge Lid
Bunzl PlC ADS

"",
NR
NR
C

Strwllb""' .... (llShr)


F1.c:aI

Dc

'
Q2

NR
NR
NR J" Q4 0.03
B+ J.' 0' 0.18
0, a, 0.59
B
NR Dc a, 0.59
NR 0,
......
B+ My .... .......

'BUIIsrMlg
B
C-CORn.1 Corp
C
C&O T.chnologl ..
C&F Flnenelal
B+
Cabl.Oaskm TllChnololll.! B

NR
B8

NR
B
B+

CACllnti
Cadbury SChweppe! ADS NA
Cld.nc. Design Sy.
BC.dmus Communlcallon Be,1 Dlvs Inti
B

B
NR

HI'"

1lI.15

... .......

.......

0.08
0.18
0.61
0.83

....

N'
'0.16
0.56
0.56

"81"
Elil.
1
1
7

,
3
1

,
6

...

VOd1.S1 dlUSt 110.-48.dO.46


..1.71
2.15 ~ 2.22
2.07
vd1.03 dO.95&dO.95 c(I.95
YO.47 0.391 0.45 . 0.34
v2.54 . 2.63
2.70
'.80
vDdO.42
..1.47
v01.41
VCJ2.BB
..2.17

0.02
1.47
1.83
2.72
2.44

0.08
.1.47
1.85'
2.75
2.45

Nil

..1.51
..2.00
..2.25
v(jJ.07
.0.83

J" Q4
J.' a,
Do' a,
a.

0.08
dO.15
0.13
0.80
0.08

0.08
dO.l"
0.15
0.80
0.10

VdO.2V 0.11
0.11
0.11
vd1.24 dO.67& dO.li6 dO.69
YO.74 . 0.5J.i 0.65
0.63
3.10
'12.67
3.10
3.10
...0.08 0.194 0.22
0.15

...

.......

'"M,

Q2

a,

Oo'
SplO 03

11131. dO.03
0.63
0.50
0.41
0.38
0.47
0.57

0.08
1
dO.16 8
0.12
8
0.80 . 1
0.06
3

dO.89
0.45
0.35
0.40

3
7
8
13

5.
0,

03

JIl"

Q4

0.41

0.42

0.40

Dc"
Dc

,.,

.......

.......

....... ...

O.OV

0.10

0.09

J.

a,
a,

... .......

Dc' Q2
0, 02
0, a,

11

...

.......

0.22

0.25

0.18

0.03
0.23

0.04
0.25

0.02
3
0.22 '10

1.80
2.20
5.75
'.80
ltO.12~ dO.t2
0.74
0.86
1.80'
2.15

..0'8.10 dO.80' 1.69


't'tO.28 d1.09t d).53
vl.50
2.01
'.03
vl.li6
UI1I 1.88
YO.50 2.43t 2.80
..1.18
Pv1.75
...0.27
...0.41
...0.35

2.02'
0.49
1.17
1.05

vao.11

O.on

...o.~1

1.47

0.9B

1.49
2,07

1
5
1
7
5
3
1

,
,

1.47
1.81
2.67
2.44

.... ,. .......
0.55
0.50 1~
1.43
0.62 28
dJ.l0 dO.10 1
0.20
0.14 25

0,

BSQ-CAL

.- ..,"

1.60;

2.10 12
3.02 31
dO.12 I
0.61 31
1
7
8
1
3

dO.92
d1..73 15
2.00' 3
1.52
7
2.19
8
1.46'13

0.58
1.59
2.05
3.02
2.62

0.70 . 0.45
1.59
1.S9
2.10
'.00
3.11
'.90
2.65
2.59

1.76
2.45
3.2B
0 ....
0.6e

1.77
2.55
545
020
1.14

1.35
0.01&
0.8010
3.10
0.35

'1.35
0.20
0.V2
3.10
0.38

1.35
dO.34
0.70
3.10
0.31

dO.701oc(I.23
dO.44' 0.35
.2.3~
2.70
2.12J 2.40

d1.11
d1.01
2.00
1.92
1.27

2.42
1.79
2.29
0.83
1.32

0.51
1.17
1.10

0.42
1.17

12
1

0.95

1.72
2,24
0.77
1.32'
2.10

0.08
1.02

0.06
0.94 10

0.23
1.22

'.90

R,."

dO.02. dO.02 :dQ,02


.2.56
.2.70
2.39
dO.88 U18 c(I.66
.0.4n
0.40
0.59
2.70
2.75
2:65

1.&4'

1
5
1
8

..5

....

.,

22

3
1

10

, "
,
,,
12

1.75
2
2.30 12
1.23 29
I
0.20
0.75 27
1
6
5
1
3

,
12
,
7
7

10
11

8
II

18
15
17
17
22

0.88:

.......

8.67
.
0.99.
3.04

5.60'
1B.20 ,12
13.99
8
11
28.90
36.34' 15

2,577
8,979
2,964
340
455

15.81'
21.10
16.96 .

2.84
4.44
519

8.82
4.15

......
.......

17.05
29.51
53.29
2.'"
20.25

828

' 22.85
5.78'
336
4.07
52.1
13.25
6.47:
56'

'66

13
13
35

'0
'0

"

11.11'

Nog

4A6
dO.71
4.36

17.52
4.82
14.85'
....... :40.15
0:62.
7.55

0.86
12.14

11
14

"

d
27
d
'8
13
'0

8102
7/.18

me.
7/29
7/17
8117
8/2,
7/17

'/27

d
'd
15
29
11

8108
7/26
7/26
8115

2.97'
2.14
3.53

27.09

88'
8,530

7.B5

1.71

22

N'9

.......

33.05
23.95

12

'00

2.56

13.90
9.30

'gn
~,..

22.23

28 7/23
8 7130
21 8/0'

5.75 82
20.35 . 21

'.85

'0

'03

7.04

1.17
3.34
1.59

0.25
t.27

0.20
1.12

8
21

258

3.41
7.39

.......
1.35

5.04
HI.36.
29.38
46.27

8107
811S
7/23
7/22

13.49
978
11.02

1,293
.447

1.0B. . d . 7/26
32.09- . 15
2.1.1., 'd .7fl.7
6.35 HI .. 7/17
14 .. 7126
37.43

'.03
2.05
3.08
4.04

....

EPS

3.39'
12.58
14.09
14.64
. 4.35

1.54 ~3'
2.11
0.71 .10
1.32
1
1.76
8
I

NIXI

'"

635
'01
1.161
14.074
4,565

.......

25

Prlc:. 200l R.pl


M.,'(l3, P,lE 011.

2.75.
B.77
14.13

8,512
4,003
1,557
235
354

..

C.. II
Flow
ISlSllr)

37.5
: 29,805
30.6
240
247

308
iplltl .D1vlcltncts . I No _dlior 11kdstr.nvnO::l pic. 2 2-lor-1,'9B. s3-lor-2:98. 4 3-lor-1 :98. 5 2-lor-l :99.'00:3-fof-2:01 . 2-101'-1:00. 7 -2-lor-1,'98,'00.
'2-lor-1. '98(IWIce). No adJ tor alk dslr Rainbow Madia. '01. 10No Bellfor 61~dSfr,Cabof Microelectronlcs.'OO. "2-lor-1 :01. 122-fer-1.'99.
0.,......

Month

N.,

.
201M
.
. 5-~~rol Amu.1 T'nglb".
Aetuit; Str!!I E.tllnml (MU.., .1lII' Strwl'~'I,,""I&lShr} 'oIOl'otrIt!'
'RIw,.
Boak
,low
Em;'
low
EN.
(I Mil.)' (IISII,)

0.52
1.08
dO.fa
0.16

a,

Galgon C.rbon
ClIlil Piua Klich."

..

L..

dO.15 dO.15
M,'
......
Dc '02
dO.25 dO.25 dO.25
0, 0' 0.08 O.tO 0.07
0.66 . 0.61
Dc' 02
0.84

Burltngton COlt Factory


BurlIngtonNorthn SantaFe NFl Dc' 02
BurJIngtonRlsourc.s
8- . Dc - 02
Bush Indus erA'
Dc 02
B
Business Oblecls ADS
NR Do'

Cable & Wlr.l.ss ADS


Cablevlslon Sys'A'
Cabol Corp
Cabal MicroelectronICs
Gabot 011 & GIIS

Nt"QuIrtlt'

Cooo.

8t~,

.... _. ....
...

EamlngsGulde

N.,

'3-lor-2:98;'00.

7/2'

;lIII 0

.,,:t:t!

Ill"'Z
0

{Q

" 0

N"'''ll

0'-0
...
:rc..

C~.!:..

....

Standard & Poor's

....
Not

nUll

"..

...

Mil.)

1,Ile

.JJ27

".

167

Tlnglbl,
tKhrl

10.07
1.51
. 9.78
9.18
12.97

57.1
3.69
5,340
12.40
~,"8~ 10.84
r,502
2.80
1.317
10.'4

...

'350"

10.45
9.72
12.30
1.80

72.

3.12

1,966

87.6

1,824

".
".

582
30ti
,550

".

,,0

255

..... 1 'N'!

(IIStwl
dl.83

......
'0'

."'.

EP'

2003 Rlpt
MI,'03 .PIE 0 ...
11.90
1.12

15 7/22
d

7rJI

18.70 1' 8/08

.....
dO.20
d2.41
1."8
5.01
1.54
0.56

N.g

S07
SUI
-i9.3

!.253
~,79B
45.3
;<136

CI.h
FllIw

1.85
0.95

10.19
15.04

"
d

BlOB
7116

1.94
38.75
6855
20.15
2104

7/18

19.90
12.57
ZO.67
3.05
7.19
8.05

N.g
N ..

'0
22
14
12

""
19

33

4.40

3.05

02<

12.44
0.83
258
0.98
3.22

5.11
0:3.06
3.80
0.56

Nog

0.78

.104
8116
8119
7/2.3

d
23
77

81'6
....
7130
7118

49.63
2.70
52.30
6.54
3.05

11 7/26
d BID'
21 BI06
10
'2
14

14.31
7.93
5.13
12.38

1.60

21.18
21.20
9.20
1.-42
12.50

5.50
35.87

0.B4
..... "

24.70
41.75

....

7/16

... .......

'04.75
1.87
9.56
10.62

.......
7/2.7
7/24
B!2.3

BID'
612'
7m,

...
.......

2'

9/03

30

BlOB

17

ENB~EOG 45

Earnings Guide
Prior , .... Ditl
f H,n V"r Ditl

Com.
Stocll

"N,,,,,alli'lIe

R...

FIo,.

EllbrtClgllEnergy Ptnrs LP, NR

Dc

NR

ee

Encd~ ACqulSillon

Encore Wi,ll'

.-

Ende!l8 SA ADS
NR
Endo Pharrnaceu!\cala Hid!! NR
Endocardial

Solutions

ENDOClIll Inc
Endwall1l Com
ENEl S.P A. ADS
Eneraen Com
Energizer WaldIng.
Energy Ella'!
EfItt'Ii'Y Parlners
Enerll, S A. ADS
Ennelhard Com
Engmeered Suppa" 51s
ENGlObal Corp
ENI S.p.A. ADS
Ennts Busineu Forms
Enron Corn
ENSCO Inti
Enlegr/s Inc
EnterlSYS Networ1ca
Enllreom Coownllnlcatlons'A'
EnterllY Corp

HR
NR
NR
NR
A
NR

02
Q2

D ... '
0.03
0.50
0 ..

OC

A'
A'

OC

02

"".04

Dc
Do' 02

......

...

dll32

a.leI

0.2'1

O.SO
0.19

dO.03

dO.OS

dO.32

0.43

0.46

0.39

'P
Dc'
0,
OC
0,

02

0.50
0.12
0.27

0.39
0.10
013

02

0.45

0.47

0.42

ANR
NR

()cI"

03
02

0.57
O.OJ

058
OOJ

0:56
0.03

B
0

Fb

NR
NR

Da

02

.03.
Pv1.26
~.JO

0.50

0.44
0.11
0.21

0.32

0.03

,
1
3

Dc

A'

02'

0.28

0.28

Dc'

D'
A,

NR
B

OC'
0,
OC

NR
C

A'
A'
02
02

NR

Dc'

NR

Dc

Q2
02

NR

0,

A'

NR

0, 02
Jl'
...

Jo
D,

Q4

A'

3-Ior2:9B.

0.18

0.14

Nil DOl

N,I

0.t7

02

25

dO.OS aO.04 dO.OB


0.32 11
0.35
0.39
1.05 1.20 '. 0.90
0,26
0.30
020
0.41
0.41
0.41
dO.02 dO" dO.03
dO.22 ao.oa dO.39

.......

.......

0.27
0.70

0.32
0.B8

2 4lor-1

:9'1.

0'2
0.40

5
2-4

..

21'"

"'

v1.76
0.,.125

0.03

dO.32

S-y, Pro]
'003 .
:c~~, Shll eltlm.w. (Witt! lof Sb'M1E.tlmale. {ltSl'lrl , III G~' ""~~~
l_ Etl..
HIgh l_ E.l. M n H''''
(I MIl.)
EPS:

0'6
0....

03

e.:.. .

EOO R.!50urce"

Dc'

0.49

Dc' 02

Enzon Ph'rmseeutlcal.

Stock SpIll. & DlYld";da


Adj f01 5%:02.

Dcl.

A'

0,

El'Ilerpf1ll1PnxlJcls Plrtn.1'I
El'lllrtalnmenf
Tr
Entlllvlsion Commllnlc'A'
Entrust Inc
EnIO Biochem

"""'rttes

NntOu.I1.r
SI,. EIUlNt.. (SlShr) '01
MI'" . High . Low E,t,.

260
1.75
0.28
1.0..
0.98

2.22
1.51
0.28
0.54

vd061 dO.I61 ~.'5


vdO.35 0.31
0..36
~d3.47 d1.2H d1.21
~3 15
.......
1Q2.1D 2.73
2.80

dO.17
0.24
o:ll.21

,,2.01
~1.44
YPdO.44

2.38
1.58
0.2BI
0.79

R.I"""

09"

2.34
l.Iit

0.86t

2.42
1.70
1.23

0'0

1.79

1.80

1.75

2.23t
0.'2~
5.92
1.i3
1.35

2.24
'0.12'
6.""
113

2.21
0.12
5.10
1.13
1.35

yO.42 0801 083


0.57
va.04
0031 0.05
0.0\
tvdO.63 dO.19t dO.IZ
vol.12
1.40
l.4B
1.33
v2.64
4.15
3.B"
'.96
vD.4f1 1.13 ".25 . 1.00
' ...1.64
1.69
1.69
1.69
vidO.1B dO.13t dO.12 1:1015
YdO.2B ctO.39~ dO.1S dO.~7
y().24 0.35
0.35
0.35

"""

1.0.u
3.:i!B

1.16
<4.07

v1.45
YO.O?
yB.B2

y1.04
va.65

3
3

2.45

v1.3'

13'

2.25
1.55
0.70

va.37

""".3
v'12

,
,

,
,
7

,,

'25

12
15
14

1.00' 7
2.19 26

2.55
1.14

o.p.a'
0.861
0.161
dO.01l
dO.84~
.. 55'
2.48

2.83
1.35

240
0.B9
0.50
.0.73

1.15

1.02

0.17
0.15
dO.Ol dO.Oj
dO.S4 dO.64
4.55
4.55
2.55
2.30

,, "
7
10
20

,, """
I

3.00
1.85
0'95
0.73
2.08

2.37
1.60
dO.03
dO.05
1.94

2.54'

HI2

2.40

7.16
. 121
0.40

7.78
0 ....0

8.50
1.21
0.&0

1.29~
0.401
t;IQ.02t
1.73
4.09

1.'82
1.00 25
0.19
0.66
7
O.OB dO.14
1.62 13
1.84
&.20 3.93 14

1.29
2.00
dO.07'

1.35
1.15
2.00
'.00
Nil dO.lS
0.07 dO.04
0.39
0.39

O.OH
0.39

un
2.12

'0

&
7
7

,
7

1.40
5.00

t-ler-4 REVERSI::02 . 2-tor1 :98. 5 2.lor-1.'99. '5-fer-4.'Of:3-lor-2:98:02.

10
2
7

2.59
1.71
0.3et
0.38~
2.01

'"

2'

'2

10

"

11
17

20

T-,,;I*
BoolI:
. ($l8hr)

20.74
~ ... S
7.01
2.17
1.52

"'Ph

"-

ManU!

NUl

Prle.

2003 R.pt

'0'

ISlSl'lrj

M.y'OJ

3.40

45.45
1920
10.15
16,'4
15.87

1.09

4.61

0.75
3.B5
4.63

26.3
/5.7
22.6
26.504
877

51'
16.95

1,740
4,1109

0.76
6..,

2.59

56.
N.g

1.80

5.l0

252

31.78
21.28
11.67
4.80
25.15

/.11
0.03
27.41
6.12
9.46

2.1(1

39.43

.'"

4,493
3.754

'0.

48'

" '"

11.01
3.66
0.9B

'7'
34.90
32.63

1.29
. l.15
1.29
dO.29
1.42

2.10
81 24
13.61

,. '"

PIE

O.la

'2

7/23
7/2.

"
"

7125

7/24

7/2.,

20

7/26

12

" 7/25
712'
.m,
"
" 7/23
./27

13

16

"

8112

"
12

6114

30.00 3B
12.41
347
d
4B.55 35
051.159 13

"1B
6/2'
BI06
7/30

8,305

33.61

10

3.585
71.6
238
103
54.0

& .6
20.43
I\Iog
1.63
3.2

0.30

25.04,2

20
16
d
d
73

7S.B
1,095

4.43
'4.98

.....

14.90
&3.10

8113
13 8113

27
32

28
20

0.97
1.03 2S

18'
285
17.620
399

81'
7
, 43,683'"
100,789
"" 6"
15
220

3
1

1.1B6

Not

1.72

22 35

noo
10.05
2.S9

1.""

,.

7/3'
7/3'

.m,
1IZ4

6/"

1 No adj 101sill: dstr (1/ Riverslone Ntwrks.'01. I 2lor-1 :02.

:E
o

"00
"0
"On

~~
,,'It~
.,'"Z

10 ~ 0
'" 0'

w",""

o
t..b
_J:w
000, ....

Standard & Poor's


...._ ... " ....~
M,m",.
. EPI
'End
CIIIl
R,. PrlCi 2003 Rlpt

_~..

No!
Tlnlllbil

,~,

'(IIS.llr)

3.90 .
13.63
3.15
7.48
M3

(lI9hr)

5.51
0.94
1.16
1.11

10.OA
21.72
6.85
6.88
4.03

3.82

"Nllg

0.70

N
4.92

, .,

21,88
23.15
5.43
5.01
N

3.79

13."5
23.S1
5.$
1."4

.......
2.61
1.65

. 1.02
d5.27
2.27

u.:

7/25
7/2.

j2 Global Communication'
Juniper Nlltwoi'Q

'/23
7/2'

;,Iuplhlrmedll

" ""
7131

,
",

7122

11

7/25
7/29

64

"7/23

21.02
11
30.09"
39.0.
' ....18
22.30 . 25
15.55
29.20
12.24
3.78
45.69

33.88

1.35

22.n

1179

30.25
8325

7,'"
1.27
4091

,.

,.,

7/2'
7118

21

2.34

SA.35

4.67
1.95

12.38
29.36

"
'0

1.05

115.15

9.56
. HeR

28.24
18.20

" "'"

3.19
15.99

13.63 "5'1
32.88

15
15

"

KCS Energy Inc


Keene Ine
K.llh Companlea
Keithley InslrumenlS
. Kellogg Co
Kellwood Co
Kelly S,uvices;\'
. KEMET Corp
Kendle Inn
Kl!n""melar, rnc

'7116

4.17

Dc'
NA. Oc'
NA Oc
B
oc'
B
Dc

,-

Kaneb SeNlca. UC
Kanaa! CIty L1te'lna
Kanaa. City SOLJ1ham
Kaydon Co!p
KB HOME

.,.5
7/31

NR

B+
Be
A-

B+
NR

BNA

B
B+
B+
A

C
C

B+

Kenneth CoIl PItlduc1IcWlI'A'


B+
NA
KanlllY NaSh
K.rr-Mea ..
B
Keryx Blophll.rmaceutlcals NR
Kerzner Inti Qnj
NR

8120
7118

Key Energy Slrvices


Kll.YCorp

7/11
"'

__

..

Fllcal

B
A

, . UI'"

High

l,.

0'
0'

0.43
0.02

0.45
0.02

Q2

dO.02

0.20

dO0'
'0.67
0.21

0.43
0.01
00.02
0.61
0.19

0.35
0.25

0.37
0.25

0.30
0.24

dO.05

dO."

0'
02

M~ O'
Il<' 0'

0.65

"01

"tlull

EIII.

e"

5
35

,
5

oe

.:z

Oc
N,

0.20
0.27
1.82

0'
0'
Dc 0' 0.29
Dc 02 0.11
Dc 0' 0.19
Dc

0.22
0.29
1.80

0.15
0.26
1.53

0.29
0.29
0.12
0.10
0.19 .0.19
03 dO.07 dO.06 ClO.Oa
0' 0.47 0.49' 045

02 0.31 0.34 0.26


Oc. 02 0.05 0.08 0.05
M' 01 dO.03 dO.Ol .dO.05
Oc 0' dOO'
dO.O"
J .

Je'

04

0.39

.....
0.43

OCI~ 02
Je . Q4
De. 02

Oc
Dc.

...

Dc'. Q2

Sp'

dO.06.

. 0.38

0.30
0.30 . 0.29
0.18
0.18
0.18
1.05
0.61
0.81
0' dO.09 dO.09 . dO.09
02
0.79
0.75
0.78

Dc .. Q2
Dc' I Q2

0.06
0.52

0.08
0.53

vllo

1.1B

vd(I.34
YdO.02
v!1,.ce

, """

be
Il<'
Dc
Dc
Dc'

-,,0>

,..,

SIF!!!I ElllmltlllllShr!

~R

. peVPharmaceutICal CI'B BKadanllm:


Kem.n Corp'A'
B
NR
Kana SOftw.11I
Kaneb PIDltUne Pb'UI L.P. NR

"'0

12.74
1. 7

Ir,'!l9. 13-lo!"'2,'98,'01.

K2/nc

7/2'
711a

11 8120
10 BIll1
12 .. 7118

Corp

K Swiss Inc'A'

12 Bl17
31 7129
21 '/23
8/17

Com.
A..,

. J2 -KEY

EarnIngs ,Guide
''''11 QuirtII'

Stock

7.24 "28
3148
11.81 51
15.26
20.99 30

'.16
0.78
dO.07
d1.04

.....

PriorY. Om
t N.~ VII' Dm
Hlml at l

42.19

.....

.:.

Mly'OJ PIE Oil'

"

,,
7

SlrHl EllIl'llln

M_

.ttlgh

1.85
1.92
0.08t 0.'1
dO04~ 00.04
2.2Ot 2.25
055
0.59

3
17

,
,,
3

,
",,

0.04. 11
0.50 17.

1.80
5
-0.03 36
dO.04
1
2.15
5
0.52

vP402
v263
va.91
'0'00.85
v7.15

1.75
3.75
07d
1.15
7.70

1.75
3.75
0.90
1.24
8.U

1.02f 1.05
v1(].ll
0.46t 0.50
va.99 O.Bn, 0.B7
vdQ.20' dO.I?' dO.t t
vl.7S
1.89
1.92

2.77
vl.69
'rlQ.S2
0.4U
vPdQ.65 dO041
'0114.30 0.08.
'0'01.22
1.35~

0.34~
2.15

'.50

a.eBt

0.91

1.29
1.10

'.34
1.15

1.20
1.05

0.17f
339

0.2".:
3.48

0.11
3.20

1.75
1 . -.. 200
3.75
2
" 00
0.931
053
.1.40
1.00 5
5.50 11
r.49

'.00
'00
1.10
1.50,
9.20

'.00
4.00
0.65
pO
4.60 .'

0.90
0.70
1.02
0.38
2.08

0.89
0.40
1.02

3.24

. 3.05
0.78
0.09
0.<41
1.60

,,
,

'.00
0.42 11
0.B1
dO.20
1.84 18

2.74
2.60
0.48
0.30
0.05 dO.11
0.08
'0.08
1.40 1.30

0.50

'.25

1'.95

2.48t

,,,
,

V1.27 1.55
1.57' .1.50
0",
vO.41
3
0."
0."
'0114.64 3.60
.2.30 20
'.30
vdQ.59 IlI145t 110.45 dCI.45 1
2.15
Pv02.13
2.23
2.05
6
velO.13
. v2.27

2.19
2.35
0.15t 0.23
O.O9~ 0.09

0.03 35
0.09
I
2.30
0.83
3

1.11
1.06
ViO.98
1.13
0.88:
YOO."5 90 0.92
0.87
0.87
0.87
vdl,50
v"'d4.46. dO.OBt <l0.05 dO.ll
v2.96
3.28 .3.35
3.15

1 vOdO.14
11

5-Yr Prol
Nol
2004
EPS Annuli Tlnglbll
Qrow1h Rn,.
11181'1.), 01 Slr.. 1 Estlrnlte. (Whr) lof
Book
High.
.law Ell.. R.I.. "" (I Mil.) (SISllr)
":Low EIII. MI'"

..0.25
2.05

12
20

:pllil & Dlv!dlnd.


'1lor" AEYERS~:01. 23-for-1:00:2tor.1,'OO. s 2lor','99.'02. ~ 3-lor2,'98,'00.
1for-2 REVERSE,'OO. No edj for sOt dslr Stillwell Flnl:OO. 12lor-1,'00. I03lor2,'00. 11 2for.f,'98.

0.90
.054
1.02~
D.27J
2.06
3.13
0.921
0.18.
0.4U
1.8U

1.05
0.34
0.41
2.00'"

0.09
2.02

1.15
2.<45

0.55
2.15

1.21

dO.16

0.94
7.29

1,22

34.30

81'

2
5
..
7

....

11

1~

9.63
26.50
17.55
10.00

79.1

39'

lS.DA

4.94

41.83

"0
.. 0

4.75
51.02
12.28

7.66

26.15
42.91
11.93
2120
62.50

15

4.B4.
11.27
9.95
13.70
35.20

Bl15
7/23
11 .8107

56'
279

5,031

"'

2.59

2,205
4,323

21.07
15.01

3.06
1.69
0.96

.214
1.5S-C

4.~1
7.49

....

433
29.0
3.700
Nil

"

'"

8.60
5.79
21.88
1.08
23.89

15

' 9

6,""

13

..,

'0

"

'0

"

15
30

11
20

.,
16

--

N.,

"

22.50

1.46
1.29
6.63
0.62

15.

'97

..,...

1.79
5.51
5.73

. 16

'/2,
7/12
Bl07
7/25
7/25

1.18
1.51
dO.97

8739UI
96.9

...

0.47

'"'".

, "

36.9c . 20
13.80
3.20

6:03
8.57
~3."8
0.52

'82
'0'

"
"

1.77
1.85 .' 1.68 3
0.84 : 0.8<4 0.83
3
2.73
0.8S 1.
".4"
dO."2 dOA2 dOA2,. I
2A3t 2.57
2.25
0.80
2.35

4.06

",.,'03 PrE 01'1

54'
~O.7
290

50
7

Nu'
21103 Rep'

48.2

'0 .

".

e,.

Price

15

".
, 23"
3

CIIIl
FI_
(1IShr)

2B.
'0

67

Manth

7"
6,.135
-

' 1-tor-S REVERSE,'01. 8 2.ror.1,'00:1.lor.10

891

2.91
13.53

0.01

'"

24 '.611)4
7/25
'0
11
d . 7/19
13 7/31

"",

5.n

11

15

'",

",
11

, .,.,

61 7/2'

7/2'

82
25 7/24

20.20
21.35
47.58

......

REVERS':o1.

11.8.8
26.4Q

7119

19 7/29

"

7/30
Bl16

~
~

13

'/2'
Bl17

-gO

'/07

~ n

",

1.71
29.97
1.11

'/25
'/2'
8125

30.70
2U9
10.10
4.99
3.5<4 33.77

12.00

""....

"

35
12

72-!or.l,'99 .

8120
7/17

,..

..,0

~,..

"'tJ~!

.,cnz

0
~ o

IQ

... .,,1l

o'-cb
... :1: ...
.. ~J.

68 'I<EY-KOS
a.e.

Prior "....
'I: Nnt' DIItII

N.""ofl
Keynote Systems
KeySplIn Corp

.K~A~~I~

KIon:.,nc

Co~
Sto<'
Alnk

NR

5,

Ik'

NA M'
C
C

KFX Inc

Kilroy Rllilty
NR
B+
Kimberly-Clark
A+
Kltnal Realty
Klndlr MoTvan Egy Pll"II1l.P. NR
Klndtr Moroan Mamt LLC NR
Klnd,r Morgan

K~H
..
Kino Pharmaceuticals
Kirby Corp
K1r1dend" Inc

NR
NA

"hcI"

KLA-Tlneor Corp
Klamalh Arst Bancorp
KLM Roya' Dutch Air
Knlgtlt Ridder Inc
Kniaht Tradlna Grouo'A'
Knlgt,t Tf1,l\IJXlrtallon
Knlghtsbrldge ral'lklra
Koala Corp
Koger Equity
Kohrs carp .
Komag'lnc'
Konaml COrp ADS
KmtIjkI'~
EIIctron NY
Kopfn Corp
~ Ko," EleclrIC Powar ADS
KomIFln'Y Inll
KOS Phll"!!aceutlcl!ila

.... """""

B
NA

B
NR
NR

ANR

B+
NR

.....

S-": Eltlmattl (W!MJ


Low
''''I':l

.... ci!'l

0,

Q3 dO.10
O. 0.14
0< 0.33
0.01
0'

0'

...

Ik

..,

0'

O.

Oc2 02
Dc' Q.
'oC3 02

00'
0,

oCS

O.
0'
02

O.
Jo O.
Je' O.
Ik

S,

03

,..
M<'
Dc 0'
0,' O.

Oc'
Ik

02

...

Dc' .
Dc 0'

dO.OS dO.11
0.15
0.11
0.33' 0.32
0.02
Nil 3

0.84
0.57
0.53
0.51

0.00
0.58
IUS
0.47

D."

0.15
0:'6

0.18
0.16

.......

.......

0,93
0.02

0.95
0.08'

0.91
dO.01

0.22

0.22

0.21

0.14 24
0.18' 1

....... ...

,.

'10

.......

..,.... ....... ...


....... ....... ...

0.09
0.42

D.09
1
D.38 24

0.18

0.16

A-

Jal17

02

Ik

0'

O.HI

NR
N~'
C
NA

M,

...

"'

dO 03

...... ........

NR

A, O.
Dc .. O.

dO.07 dO.08
0.14
0.05

00.09

10

NR

... .......
.......
....... ....... .......

. 1

.......

oi::n ...
02

0.73 . 0.70
0.72
dO.7S dO.53 d1.00 . 3
0.38
0.38
0.34 14
0.48
0.<9
3
0.13
0.15
0.11

0.09
0.010

Dc:"
00"

.....
., 01'

...... ....... ......


.....
...... ....... ...

0.81
0.58
0:50
0~49

dO.02

EarnIngs, GuIde

...

....... ...

dO:02

..

.:C~ ItNtt
EO.

~"

"" Low
N~'

E.l1m....

tnnrl

,'DI

E....

YOd2.24 110.33' dO.27 dO.oI0


3
d.81
2.53
'.60 2.48 "
0.98
0,97
VOO.4S
0.98
'tIJltO.42 I 0.11t" D.'"
0.08
3
wl.U'
dO.f9 dO.19 dO.19 1
1.08 . 1.06
vl.4S
1.08
O3.24
3.36 '3.40
3.30
v2.16
2.32 2.37
2.12
v1.96 . '.0<
1.97 14
2.10
v1.23
2.01
2.10
1.93

,.

1102.411
vA1.85'
vP1.35
v1.13
vPCJO.71

3.27
3.30
l!IO.964 0.75
1.SS. 1.63
1.72 1.75
1.18 '1.19'

3.23 15
d2.BS
1..48 15
1.58 3
:1.17

...,

Standard & Poor's

,...

s.Yr Prol

G~:~h'

PCJo,lc/1.72
vO.77
v1.87

0.91
0.75'
0.06
0.35
2.15

0.88'
1.00
.va.67
vPd2:a.. 0 ....
vDdO.28 dO.03'
1.51
..0.97

nlo

.... 82
w1.01

Stock Splill II DIvidendi


'1 No ad] for mgr wlK&ySpan(SIdyn lJnlont. fJ.for-2.'Of.
3-10I'.2:9S:01(lWIce).
,0 2loT.1 :98:00.
I I 4-104'-1:00. 12 2Ior1 :99:00.

0.93
0.75
0.06
. 0.38
2.22

0.88
0.75
0.08
0.38
2.09

0.86'
0.66
1.00 . '-00
0.016 0.29

dO.30' dO.19 dO.'"


2.75 2.50 10
'.62
1.21
1.28
1.16
3
0.38
0.30
033
3
dO,' 1 ~.11 dO.11

.......
3.58
2.40.

~.'9
2.17
3.58
0.69
1.81
1.93
1.36 .

N' cKlOT
1.51

1.51

dO.2D l!O.19 dO.22


0.7M 0.85 '0.65
J

Nor-I:01.

10

3.75
2.55

'.30
225
3 ..
1.35
Ulo!

'.00
1.37

3.24
2.21
2.08
2.05

3
lJ
3

1.001 10
'0.75
1
0.09
0.21
2.51 22

'1
1

0.99
1.10

0'.99
1.1011.45
0.14t
1.35'

1.68
0.25
1.010

0.99
1.10
1.13
0.05
1.30

0.14
1.14t

0.20
1.010

0.04'
0.59

7
20
17

9,11

18.M

514

0.82

3."

13.568
.0151

"

4,:!37
71.2

17

IS

,.

'3-'or-2,'99. IJ.IOT2:99:00:4-lor-3:01.

22

1
A

1.180

" '"
.,

1.015

3,358

53'

20

....

."
2B
11

I.

3.

'2fcr.l:00.

PriCI

Mly'03

9.95
,e.11

10

E"

.J7.g
5.971
382
li.Hi

"

1.15
0.75
0.09
0.21
2.80'

.,

35

9.52 '
.......

35,22

200.1

PIE

2<
IS

5105
19.66
14.31
27.50
15.00

1.
d

10.70
14.78
35.54

5.7

5.95

Ne,
5.58
1335

61.5
36.5
130
9,120

15.93
9.B5

.83

Ne,

1,693'
33.495
76.8
14,789

2.29
2.22
19.36

39<

2..47

173

Ne,

No,

7.83

1.20
3.03
.......
1.45
8.25
4.31

0.13
dO.10
d2.150.25

) 3for-4 REVERSE:99.

'
712~

7/:

71' 7

"

",

'6.15
19.66

532
'.30
6.02
2.36

711

.....,
'"
1.

."
811

712-

" 7"
d

'7

d
32

8120
8Ill6

',2for-1:99.

NR
B.
NR
NR
C
C

NP
NP

L3 Communications Hldgs ~JR


La Jolla Pharmsc9u!icaJ
C
La Quinta ComIU'lil)
C

7r.
7r.

" '"

12

"lR
B+

/(yphonlnc

'.

10.45

NA

Kyocera Corp ADA

15

""
NP

lIT Corp ADS


I(Ubolll. COrD ADA
Kullcke & Solla. 1l1d
KVH ll1duslria~

'3

19

25.38 . 28
1325
18
0.05
17.12
1.93 . 52.35
0.25

-,~
'7

016.23 69
7f.l'
17.40 23 7/:
7.25
d
70.44 . 19 . 7/1 7
6.26' 63 ", 7

1.06

,,

,. ,"

395
26.23
51.93
37.40
:39.33
35.49

.......

e,"

Sloc~

In ...

Krenos Inc

33
d

.......
4.eO

11.98
jO.08
.3.48
7.22
1.25

Of

,. .....'.
d

dO."7

4.53

Nlm.

14

0.18

.......

Prior Vu. Oaf'


t Nel1 V.. , 0."

E!
~~ pi
De ,Ie

Kosan BioSCle'lces
I{rall Foods'A'
I'Crispy I'Creme Doughnuls
Kroger Co
I':rol11nc

15.70
7.09
18.37
13.96
30.03

1.637
'99.9
6.53
2,842

...

No"I

Month'

C...

A,.
'00' fllShr)

, , '"

3.52 '5
0.18
3
1.63 15
1.85
1.36
3

1.08
075
1
0.09
1 ' 0.21
201
2.801

rlllgible

SttteI EltllIllllIlSlShr) 'al


"'Rr:~~1
High
Low Eit . RllfL'lfo"IS Mil.)
(SlShrl

1.04' . 1.50
0.71
0.85 24
0.69 23
v1.10 0.67
0.95 . 2
1.1(U
1.25
vLOS. 0.764 0.77 ' 0.74 . 2
'111:3.37:d2.111t. 112.04 113.201 3 : 112.78t d1.57 (14.51 3
(l3.33: 3.70
3.80 15 . 01.13 01.30 3:as 1S
3.76
Q.1Ot 0.13
0.21
0.06
VdO.Je
0.02
0.''"
wO.73
v'~98

..,

',1

I
I

A
tLaZ Boy'
LabOne In[
BLabor RQady
B
LaboratOly COlll Amllr H1dgs BLaBranche & Co
NR
Le.clede Group

B.
NR
NR
ANR

Ladls,,", Co

LaFarge ADS
la1arge ~Or1h America
Lakeland Bancorp

..

Lakeland Financial
Lam Research
Lamar Adverllsil1g '/>"
Lamson & Sessions
Lan Chile ADS

B
C

B-

,m

Lancasler Colony
Lance. Inc

A+

Stock Splits & Dlvldentls

' 2!l

" 1Ior10 AEVERSE.'Ol).2rorl.l)

:E
o

;.
'00
"0
'On

~'"
co

'tl'lt~

.,<112:
Ie ~ 0

co o

<II'T1'tl

oc..O
... :I:c.>

000..10.


114 TEN-THO
" Prior Vel; 01'1
~ NIll! YIIII'"Cill .

N .., Quirt.,.

''''''
.on'

Tlnnanl Co

B+

TClnnlleo AUtomo11YQ
111PPCO PInTS L.P.
Terildynll lnc
Temon ~

NR
C
5n NR

Tlrlr.: Cll'll
1e". JnduSlrle!ll
T,rra NelWOrQ ADS
Tisoro Pe1rollum
TESSeO T,chnoIoQies.

Th8Iagenles COIJl
ThertlS8nse rnc
ThermaWlve InC
Tharmo Electron
TheSlreei.com lnc
third Weve Tech
ThiSlle Group H1dgs
ThomlS &. Bett!l
Thomas Indus
Thomas Nelson
THOMSON ADS
Tho~'lndus .'~

Flit"

Dc
Dc'
Dc'

0'
0'

0:315
0.28

Q2

. 35

Dc;J Q2 dO.21

""" ". ,

0.38
0.38
0.37
0.22
3
0.37
0.31
7
dO.18 dO.24 15
1l0.19 1l0.24 3

Dc'

02

B-

Dc

02

De' :02

.."
.06

0.70 . 0.59 . 5
~.08 . 0.06 . 1

NR

Dc

.......

.......

BB-

Dc
M,

0'
01

0.59
0.08

1....
0.11

Dc
Sp'

0'

Telon Pelroleum
NR
D+
Tetr. Tech
TETRA Technologlls
B
Teva Pharm Indus ADR NR
.NR
Tens Genco Hldo
Tellas IndIJs
TeXIS Ins1rumenll
Tell.88 Regional Banc'A'
18K" Unlf8d 9ancsharu
Tettro",lnC

ElthNites IllShr) 101


Elt,:
MoM

'!bMl

B+
B
A
NR

AD'
NR
NR
C

NR
NR
NR
C'

03

00

0'
OC, 02
My
D'
OCT 02

0'
",,'

'0'
Dc!' Q2

Dc '02
M,
01
Dcl" Q2
Dc '02

Dc'
Dc
Dc

62
'02

AB

Dc

0;

M,

Q1

Nfl

Dc'

A-

JI'I

--'

....
0.25

,
,

10

...
0.25
0.38

dO.ti4
0.08
0.52
0.50
085
0.05
dO.16
dO.32
0.24

.....

0.25
. +0

.+8

0.25
0.33 . 8
0.42 13'

"'''
vlJ:60

0.91'
1.42

....1.52
'tl1T.I6

19'
1.10

'.3
1.10

2.38 dIJ.831 dO.7e


~20
OAO O.A3
. v1.B6 2.13
2.25
vPf.eo
1.78
1.78
"2.401 3.00
""'.SO

0.05
0.05 '1'
vO.19
dO.13 dO.20 - 5'
vdO~73:
dO:32 dO.32
...Pd4.51
VC1.7A
0.26
. 23
dO.08 110'.10 ; . WIO.37

0.23

0.23

0.54
0.05

0.54 :0.54
0.05 . '0.05

2'
;

0.23'

....... .

.....
.0.70

'99:

"

--.
06~.

0.01
0.90
136
\.81
1.10

<.69

2.74.

",
,

1
5

,
,
7

dO 22
2
0.B6 ~ '_1

0.65

2. "
0.B5

~63

...0.93 :
'11.8.7.

dO.90 3
0.31 27
2.09
5
1.78
2.20 10

0.20 '0.20
0.20
dO33. dO.21 dO.57
dUOt d1.05 d1.15
1.05
1.09
J.l0
dO.33 dO.32 dO.33

1flf1.OA
dO.2m dO.l8
I ...0.89' '0.86" . 0'.860
0.92'
0.92
vdO.14
...ioo 2.11 '. :(.11
~PO.70 0.85t 0.85

2.25
'57
1.67
0.471

d023.

2.14
2.40
0.07
0.07
dO.15. dO.15
1.61
2.45
0.22

.,

0.17t
1.92
2.21
1.10

0.19

, ", .,.

2.25
1
0.55
1.50 10
0.28 ,.
".30

0.15
1 .3

'.72
2.08
1.10

0.461 0.64
072 .0.B9
2.42 . 2.55
2.01
2.01
2.761 3.00

.'7
0.54
2.35
2.01
2.30

0.30
0.30'
0.30
0'.20'" .0.33
0.14
dO.71 dO.71 'dO.71
1.25
13. 1.19
dO.l1 dO.l0 dO.l1
dO.02~
. 0.90
0.75
2.38

0.04
. 90
0.75
2.38

......

dO.07
. 90
0.75
2.38
.......

1.4601

187
3.23

1.13
2:99

~.11

"

'.5.29

3.459

N
7,18

1;222

4.30
1.54

2,797
1,042

3.09
3....
5....
1'0.35
11.24

25

'80

'5

7.119
270

15

6.92
7+1

,
,,
, "

'00'

3,242

" ,,,
, ""

1.90
0-.07 1
1lO.15 1
0.80 10
0.22

2.15
2.35
1.10

f No aO) tdr spinoff, '96,


:! 2-mrf:!JR. ~'NOf-1,'99. '"'2-'01-1,'00. 55-lo;-4:98:99,'01.
No adj lor slk dslr Vlasys Heallhcare:01. '0 3-lor-2:98:2-lor.] 1'02..

Siock Spill.. Dividend.'

2.25
0.60
1.75
0.74
do09

, , ,,,

_-_ ..

...

C..h
Re.
(SlStlr)
....
O.,~
3.94
113.05

".35
4.13

Eo'

EPS
2003 R.",
Mly'03 PIE Dill
3495
3.154
3-4.20
17.15
2.96
17.75
1.47"
5.40
7.01
7.38

23

2.519
1,541

25

12
18

1
9

12
12

1,345
8.383
2+2
44.1
10,656

27.09
5.74
11.83
9.48
13.09

4,75

15
26
23

'4.80

0.89

'2.65
1.80
4.08
1.03

1.33
1.34

"
3.'

41.9
178
49.2
2,086
20.9
32+
46.4
i,346
'+1
217

1.37
. 13.07
3.45
1'.158
3.64

0.72
2.33
0.7'

3.93
15.22
15.38
29.40
11.60

9,355
1,24~

7.7t
B.70

2.34
2.06

18.62
38.80

"

,+3

,, ",

, ,.
13

'2-lor-1 ;'00:02. 1 ~-lor1 :99,'00 .

.- .'or-2:02

_ ,J.~

1.00
2.88
. 1.37
7.06
D.n
.......

____ ,~_

Prior "e.r 0.1.'


i Nnt V"r D'

Pf'Ie-

0.78
2.54
10.99
4.15
36.15

5
14

. NUl

Monltl

N.I

S-Vr Prol

EP! Annuli T1nlllbl.


SIrtIIttE,llmlll' (SI9hr!' , 01 Grc.1h R......
High
MI'n
Low itl. AI.'" (SM".) .. (SIS"r)

,
, 0',

dO.'

0.09
0.93
1.46

0.03 . cIO.10 2
0.09 .. 0.07 2fJ
0.54 .: 0.51
'5
0.50 : 1
0.50
0.70 . :0.58. 8

.06'

.....

, at
Elil.

1.44
1.44
'44
VOO.74
0.49
0.150
0.25
3
vl.79
1.50 10
1.56
'.55
dQ.75 15
vd3.93 dO.57~ dO'"
wlb.S1 dO.85 dO.71 dl.03
..
vddO.41
1.75
1.50
1.80
YOdO.70 dO.191 dO.19 dlJ.19 1
nI. dO.12
dO.21
1.55t 2.15
1.00 13
vd2.10
vPO.lf7 O.I6~ 0.75
IllS
't'd3.48

".06 dO.05 .; dO.06

.9~...0:815

EP'
Wo.g,

,."'-_ ....."' ....,.".-.....-._--

Standard & P
2004

200)"

EIII""., .. (SISti,)
"M n, HIIII:l
low

Nil .02 ".03

.......

Dc

Dc'
Dc
De

dO.22

A~~'StrHI

.::. -....

GiJld,

Cdm.

NIIIIIOIIIIIIII

_._~._--"_.--".--'

",
"
d
d

,',
d
d
5

"
"

7123
7/25
7{19

7/17
7130
6112
7/26
ll/1)'

7/2

N,m.oIlnue
Thoralec Corp
Thornburg MOftgage
THQ Inc
Three Five SyStems
3Com Corp

300 Company
3M Co
3lEC En",rgv
TIB FI"al'lcial
TISCO 50tTwarll

5.28
16.95
29.52
50.65
2085

BB

22.11
20.50
36.80
20.46
,J4.85

7/0'
7/25
17 7A16
11 . 8130
7J22

TImberline Soltware
Tim", Warner lelecom'/
TimkQn Co
11lan Corp
TItan Pharmaceut,cals

4.26
9.99
1.14
21.10
5.24

21
~.
d
19
d

7123
7/19
7/10
7123
7/17

TlVo lnc
,. Jl<: CoMpanies
Toll Brothers

d
18
17

'"3
7/19

,."

Tomldns pic ADS


Tomrny Hiltiger
Tompkins ll1J5lco
Too lnc
Toolsie Roll 1"C!us

,..

7/19
21 . 7126
'7

"

"

'.

7"3
7/16
En.

Tidewaler Inc
Tillr 1{'chl"1Oloc;lie~
'El
li",rQn", COI'I'
TIt/any 05Go
'T"nberland Co A'

TolIgrBde

CO/TImun,cBllc",

Tom Brow"

Topps Co
TOf:! Miner/JIs InH

'~A

Siock

Splits & Dividendi

B4'0I'-3,'98,'99. 'Nor-!."

;.
"00
"'0
"On

~;

"D~-

",cnz
lQ -

O 0
ao"Tl"D
OC-O
<II

..Xw
~a.J;..

'56 GRQ-HAN
Prior Vnr
l' Nftt Vnr

c.~

DatI

, Hlmloll._

GrouP 1 Sotfw8~
()roUptl OIlManll ADS
Grupe Alroportua""'B'ADS
Gropo CIS . Saba AOS
GMJlI F"Il'lIn$IO GlIcIll ADS
Grupo /my ADS
GnJIXl luncllI ADS (New)
Grupe Tlllevlsa S."'.GDS
Grupo TMM PIlI1 Ctls ADS

GSIComme~
GTC 8IoUlerapfiltlcJ.
GTECH Holdings
GTSI Corp
Guar8J\ty Fed! eancsham
Guctl Group N.V.
QU_IIS

Ine

.... FI,,,,

Ca~,
Stotll

a-

NA

M"
0,'
Dc
0,
Dc
0,
Dc'
Dc
Dc 02
0, 02

0,

NR
NR

NR
.NR

NR
NA
NR
NR

B
BNfl

NR
NA

..

...

Dc
J.
J.
0,
00'
Dc

Guidanl COil)
Guillord Pharmaeeutlcal,
Gullar Canler
Gulf Isla/7d Fabrtealion

NA
NR

DC

GullJ"I."" Ot1,hol1l

NR

Dc

GulJTn EIlarVf Partnlll! lP NA


GUndlllSl T Envlronmenlal 8Gyrnbor8_ Corp
B-a+
l1aemOl'1etfcl Cam

aHagoirCotp
Haln Calestill,1Group
NR
Hall, Kinton & ASloc
NR
a
Halliburton Co
Han'tf1IfWlJoIm O)HoIaIs'A' C
Hanaro Telecom ADS
Hanct'Ck FabrIcs

Sloek Spilt.

..... .....

01

NR

a+

0,

02
Q1
02

04

...

J.
Dc
Dc
Dc
Dc
J.

0.10

.....

0.10

....... ....... .......


....... ....... ...... ...
...... ....... .......
.......
...... ...
....... ....... ...... ...
....... ...... ".
.......
...... ....... ..0.09' 0."
dO.13 dO.15.

1
4

dO.22 dO.22 dO.22


0.63
0.60
0."
dO.04
dO.OoC dO.Dol
0.32
0.32
0.32.
....... .... .

1
S
1
1

0.09
dO,1"

."

02

dO.10 dO.09 dO.11 2


02 0.53 0.57 0.50 28
C2 dO.V. dO.21 . dO.42
02
0.19
0.20
0.18 10
02
0.33
0.30
0."

C2
0, 02
Dc 02
J. 02
Mr ,C1
Sp

0.10

0.21
0.25
0.42
0.38
0.69
0.89
dO.02 dO.02
0.2"

1
10

D."

0."
~.04
0.22

0.36
0.20
0.01
0.27
0.17

036
0.19
dO.08
0.23
017

0."
O' 0.19
02 dO.03
02 0.25
02
0.11
0'

...

.......

.......

02

0.10

0.11

,. ,3-for.2:00:2.for1:02.
& Dividend.

0.15
0.31

2"

...... ...

0.09

2lor',OO,

=..
EPI

vPO.59
.1.98
M.70
\/1.68'
,,1.10'

......,

....""

str.IE .....
. fHfn
0.71"
1.48
0."
2.15
1.54

.......
.......

0.13

0.38

'IdO.86 dO.eo
v2.o43 2.67

"'.00,
d.74

""'''

D.'"
1.25

.......

o.ee

2
5

1.36

,
,

0"
2.15
1.54

dO."O

....... ...
....... ..

110.20
dO.49

,
1

dO.eo 110.&0
2.19
2.48
0.80
0.80
1.25
1.25
....
...... ,

0.06. 0.12

Nil 2

2.19
d1.11
1.38
1.20

1.95 30
d1.65
1.28 10
1.13

0.71t 0.87
1."1;. 1.&5
<.8I)t I.8ll
1.00
0.97
1.10& 1.15

0.56
1.30 13
<.8ll
0.89 10
S
<'03

".00
2."
'tll'1.99 d1.38
1.3"
"'.09
d.S7
1.16
vl.22
.0.52
vot.17
YO.71
""'1.13

2.15
1.54

.......
.......

"'.
YdO.88 dO.""
"tOf

o.n

... ....

....... ....... ...

~.54

vc1.05

0.73
1.86

IMhr) "'oil

..

1.00
1.00 1
1.00
D.llS
0.112
0."
""1.8&. dO.1'" dO.08 110.23
1.15
0.92 25
'td2.31
1.o"
I
0.10
ttOdO.1'
0.10" 0.10
vo1.25
.0."

YdO.71
v1.06

....... .......

.......

1.20

1.19

1.for.10 REVERSE/OJ.

1.23

~ 2for1:02.

- .'" ..
'004

BIrMt Eltlm,,"

0.91t
t.87
0.8oIt
1.45

("'''r)

1.01
0.6'
1.88
1.48
1.02
0.50
1."5 . US

SOY, Prol

'llf
&11.

a~::"
R
IS MIl.)
~n~~'

,
,

20

'0

....

'0'
14.238
119
1,776
2.484

, , .."'"

...

2.16f 3.10
2.32
3
d7.12 113.90 119.29
0.93 10
1."2.
'.83
0.27
0.43
0.10
2
dO.25f 110.14 110.40
dO.75 dO.75 dO.1S
. 2.82
2.'"
'0'
1.09
1.09
1.09

.....

.....

.......

:2.71

3.19

2.37

'0
11
15

....
15

1.85
220
US
<.20

,.,.

1.30
1.50 13
1.11S 1
1.06
t.26
2

US
.105
0.1"
1.39
0.80' .

1.15
1.10
O.HI
1.75
0.80

1.15.

1
5

10
18

..

....

18

4,29
0.74
8.17
9.81
10.83

2.04

'"
'"

'.53
8.60
12.06
28.9
2,285 . 20.70
'3,20&0
14.7
f.f01

..

267

54'
: 337
"2

" ".

0.99
0.06
0.90 2.(
1
0.8ll
dO.12
<.,.

21

(Mlhr)

10.

11

21

t,nglbl,

2.152
1,000
173

'"
, "
,,.
., 25, '"
,
.,

1.57t
1.66'
1.65'
1.15
1.30

21or1:99.

"

15

"0
12,572

3.47
5.93
2.73
5.ti1
8.37
10.90
.9.75
9.67
5.80
7.57
20.79
2.99
'1.35
6.59

N.,
"
, ....
". ", ,.,.
'0

"0

832

Prior Yur D~l~


t HeI1 Yllr 01'1

Hot

3.65
29.20
1.82
'31f
2.52

'83

0.20 2
0.22
2.00 . 2.20
1.79 28
d1.27" 111.08 dl.s8
1.59
1.11" 1.75
1.28
1.20
'.48
0.21'

dO. 121' .QO.12


1.3n
1.0

.." ".. ...""....."'" ....


Standard & Poor's

Earnings, Guide

NIl.. QwIrc.r
81r", bllnwtllCMlilul '01
Eili.

Cu"

I....
~
1,09

.......

.......
2.13

,...
.......

.......
4.79

2.41

.......
.......
3.8.
f.91
0.97

'."

________

MIy'03

1.18

PIE

21.63 .30
27.63
19
13.68 21
10,'9
5
3.13
2
12.60
".05
30.85
1.95
5.65
".3"
35.1"

'.22
15.9"
97.85
5.07
42.28.
5.58
23.93
17.3"
18.09
36.62
15.00
17.10
18.05

2.57
11.35
0.31
17.28
113.11 2.53
2.51 2387
12.12
4.65

".52

-Corn.
Slack
Rink folse,1

"

",

2D03 Rnl

2.03
1..... 8

Nlmt Qllllu~

D.ll

Hancock l-laldll"lg
Handleman Co
Handspl"lng 1m:
Hanger OrthopedIC Gro
Hanml FIn/Jl1Cial

1131
'"

A-

0'' 0

B-

Ap
J,
Do

NR
C

NR
NR

Hanover Cap!!81 Mlg


B
Hanover Gompl1ls!Sor
Harbor Florida Bllncsl1ares NFl
BHarland (John H.l
A+
Harley-Davidson

'"'.
" '"
15
d
d

'0

"

85
21

,.

Harlaysville

711

Marman Inll
NR
HarmonIc Inc
Harmony Gold Mining ADR NR
H6rr811'5 E..,le11ainme'lt
B

7/1

., ....

HarrmglCln Wesl Finl Gro


Harris CO'P
Hlrrls InlQrachve
Har!lco Carp
HarteHanks If'e

"01

....
7/19

" 81"
, "'"
.,." "'"
"28

15

25
2S

.7126

..

"

'/30

""

23 .7/25
BI06
12

0"

C
C
C

Sp'

0,
D"
Do
J"

.....
8/~3

."
D'

D,

",'

NR
B'

J'
D,

D"

B-

HaW'lhorTIaFlnl
HCA Inc

B
B

Do'

N,
0,
0,
0,'

N"
A

B'
NR

Siock Spllts & Dlvldend9


112.lor.1,9B. '3-tor-2.'99.

00'

NR

riesling! En/ertainmenl
Havas
Haverty Furniture
Mawallan Elee Indus
Hawk CClrp'A'

J,
0,
Dc~
D,
D,
D,

0,

13-lor-2.

_~ __ .__ ....

~
~
,..

-gO
,,0

~,..

",n

.,,~:!.
lllcnZ
lC ... 0
'" O

... ..,-0

o c..b
... ::t:W

O)bJ~

D"
D,

B
Ha11IDrdFlnl Svcs Gp
C
Hartmal"J. Corp
NR
HaNard Bioscience
H~""lIsi Nliluril RIJ!OIJTtes BB
t1"asl:lro Inc

BI01
7J2"

11
20

B+
B+

Group

Q
Q

r._

c.. "

(lIIhr)

11l9lvJ

"--.-.

Standard & Poor's

Not

t1Qall

10.07
1.51
9.76
9.18
12.97

"ow

d183

.....
11.90
6.12

18.70
10,19

dO.20

15.04

3.8li1
12.40
10.84
2.90
10.1.

112.41

1.9-4
38.75

10.45

N.,

0.56

9.72
12.30
1.90

1.85
0.95

Nog
4.40
3.05
12. 4
OB3
2.58
0.98
3.2.2
Nog
'''.31
7.;3
5.13
12.38

'.50
35.87

7122
7/31
8IOll
..,B
7116

7118

"

68.55

'0
22

5.01

20.15
21.04

12

7/27
7/2.
8/23

31
.14

7118
~

19

&,18

8
33

8/19
7/23

3.12

N"

15
d
,.

1.48
1,S4

.....
.......
0.2.
5.11

d3.08
3.80
0.56

19.90
12.57
20.67
3.05
7.19
8.05
14.75
1.87
9.58
10.82
49.63
2.70
52.30

6."
3.05

0.78
........

UIO
0."

21.18
21.20
9.20
'.42
12.50

24.70
41.75

Earnings GuIde

No..

EM
EPB
PrlCI ZOOI Alpt
Mly'OJ PIE 0_

,.

.9

23

Bl16
7130

7118

11

7/28

d ""
21 8IOll
10
d 8IOll

,.

92

8/2B
712.

21

8103

30
17

..,B

YI'" Dlb
:I. Hut VIII' ON
Prlor

NIl Q
II II"""
51,", Elllrnlll.!lfStvl
MNn
HII'" ~ow

Corn.
Stock
Rink FIIClI

HI"" 01 Iii.
Enbriclgl Energy PtnrsL.P.

NR

Eno1re AcquIsition

NR

Dc
Dc

EI1<:OI1tWire

B~

Del.

EndeslI SA. ADS


NR
Endo PharmaceuticalsHIds NR

Dc'
Dc

02
02

02
02
02

0 ..49
0.41
0.03
0.50
0.2'1

0:56
0.
0.03
0.50
0.29

0.41
'0.32
0.03
0.50
0.19

,or
Eili.
7

..
1
1
5

EndDcard!aJSoIutlons
.. ENOOc.re lne
EmfWlIYl!I Corp
ENEL S.p.A.. ADS
Enefcan CorD

NR
NR
NR
NR
A

Dc 02
Dc
Dc~ 02
Dc
~
02

0.43

0.'16

0.39

E:nergizerHokiing,
Energy Elst
Energy Partner,
Enershs SA .ADS
Eno,lhard COrD

NR
B+
NR
NR'
B+

03
oeS 02
Oc 02
Dc
De' Q2

0.
0.11
0.21

0.50
0.12
0.27

039
0.10
0.13

6
3
6

0.'15

0.47

0.'12

Oe- Q3
Do 02
Dc
Fb 01
Dc"

0.57
0.03

0.59
0.03

0:56
0.03'

4
1

0.28

0.28

0.28

1
...

Eng,lrnJ,"d Suppat1 Sys AENGlobalCorp


ENI S.p.A. .ADS
En'lilBullnesllFormli
Enron Corp

NR
NR
B
D

ENSCO Inti
B
E'llllgl1llnc
NR
Enterasys Netwotb
C
EnllrcomCommun!cllloNl'A' NA'
EntlSrnvCorD
B

Dc
Au

Del
Dc
Dc

EnIlrprtMPrcCIcIIPartn.rl
Enll!lrtalnmentPf'OPll'lHtrHR
Entt.v1,tDn CDmrnunlc ...
Entrust Inc
EnIO Blocflam

NR
NA
B

Dc

Enzon Ph8rm':ClI'lJtIc.1s
EOG Resources

B-'
B

Je
Dc

Q .....

It

C! ..

IIt...

n,....,

.I..

NR

Sp

Dcl

Dc
Dt;

Q2
03
02
02
Q2

dlJ.04 dO.03 dO.05


.......
..... .
dO.32 dO.32 dO.32

JI'
04
02

3
f

0.17
0.18
0.14 25
Nil 0.01
Nil 8
aO.05 110.04 dO.OS 5
0.35
0.39
0.32 11
1.05
1.20' 0.90.4

Q2 0.28
030
Q2
0.4' 0'"
02 110.02 110.01
02 ctO.22 dO.OS

0.20

0.'"
dO.03
dO.39

9
1
7
4

......

.......

.......

0.27
0.70

0.32
0.88

0.22
5
0.40 24

I ... __....... ~ __ '''~

2~'
ActIlll Sn.t Eillmlill (lIS"rl
EPB.
Mil"
Hlllh low
v1.76
Ot1.25
vO.39
Pvl.~
...0.30

2.38
2.60
1.58
1.75
0.28~ 0.28
0.79
1.04
0.94" 0.98

V'll0.61 dO.16~ 1:1015


\ldO.35
031
0.36
vd3.47 d1.2U dl.21
\13.15
..02.10
2.73
2.80
,,2.01
,,1.44
vPdO.c4
va.37
v1.31
"'.45
...007
v882
PvO.93
,,1.12

2.22
151
0.28
0.54
090
d017
0.2'1
dl.21

2004

5
1
2
5
3

1.90

1.75
2.21
0.12
5.10
113
1.35

9
4

0.tl6t
0.861

US
1.02

0.60
073

2
5
2
1
l'

RltB-'llr.
7

1.186

10
14
21

181
285
17.620
399

'20.74
9.45
7.01
217
1.52

26.3
15.7
226
26,604
677

0.75
385
4.63
5.19
16.95

20

9
5
7
7

076
6.53
5.69
Nag
5.20

'I

2.54t

2.62

2.40

'I

17

1
7
1
1

7.HI
'1.21
0.40

7.78
1.21
0.40

6.50
1.21
0.40

7
1
1

7
5
15

408
91.6
43,683
241
100 789

1.11
003
27.41
6.12
9.46

'.2~
0.401
OO.02t
1.73
4.09

1.62
1.00 25
0.68
0.19 7
0.08 dO.l4
4
1.64
1.62 13
4.20
3.93 14

14
15
20
19
7

698
220
'185
391
8,305

11.01
3.68
0.98
Neg
33.51

1.29
1.35
1.15 12
2.00
2.00
2.00
1
d007t
Nil dO.13 9
0.011 0.07 dO.04 3
0.39
0.39
0.39
1

10

3,585
71.6
238
103
54.0

5.'16
20.'13
Neg
1.63
3.82

75.13
1.095

4.43
1.4.98

\I

1.00' 7
2.19 28

0.16' 0.17
0.15
dO.DU dO.or dO.OI
dO.84~ dO.84 dO.84
4.55t ".55
".55
2.48
2.55
230

IS Mil.)

BoolI:
. ISlShr)

1.740
'1.009
134
'1,493
3,75'1

va.A8 1.13 :1.25


1.00 1'1
~1.&4 1.59
1.69
169
1
vdO.18 dO.13t 110.12 dO.15 9
1't1O.2B dO.39,J.1"118 dO57.4
vO.24 0.35
0.35
0.35
1

A ,_ ,__

240
0.89

~VI'.

10
5
10
15
11

0.93
0.57 25
0.05
!J.Ol 6
<10.12 dO.2S 5
1.48
1.33 12
'1.15 3.80 15

,,1 [\4
1.D,u 1.18
YO.IIS 3.28
4.07

2.83
1.35

"'n"ll~

1.79

2.55
1.14

EPS

0raWttt

2.59
3.00
2.37.5
1.71
1.85
1.60
O.34t 0.95 ~.03
0.36~ 0.73 dO.05
2.01
2.08
1.94

2.23' 2.24
0.12~ 0.12
5.92
6.40
113
1.13
1.35
1.35

I ur
Eatl.

HIli
Tlnglbl'

25
40
10
2
7

2.45

2.42
1.70
1.23

S-Vr Prol

, 01 Sholl ElttIIT.tn (lIS""


115111. Mil"
HIgh
La.

Z.25
1.55
0.70

2.34
1.61
0.861

..0.42
0.604
vO.04 0.03~
:tvdO.63 dO.I9t
..01.12
1.40
\1264
3.96

_ """,_""A~'_

Adj lor 5%:02.

ENB-EOG

20113

un
2:12

1.40
5.00

0.97 B
1.03 25

27
32
28
20

Monlh
Cllh
Flaw

(SlShr)
3.40
1.09

2.59

End

P,/eol
Mly'Q3

45
NUl

EP5
2003 Ripi
PIE Oil.

4S.4S
19.20
10.1S
16."
15.87

j9
12
36
20
17

712~
712'1
7125

461

7/24

1.76
34 96
32.63

7/26

7126

12

31.78
21.28
11.67
'1.80
25.15

14
13
14

7/25
7126
8106

14

7123

39.43
2.10
81.24
1361

18
16
14
12

6/27
6/12

30.00
12.41
3.47
48.55
51.69

38
d
35
13

.....
0.30

22.35
27.00
10.0S
2.59
25.42

20 7/31
167131
d 8109
d 7124
73 6118

1.06
4.04

14.90
'13.10

1'1 8113
13 8113

190
2.52
2.19

1.29'
2.15
1.29
dO.29
1.42
1.72

6/14
7/18
6125
8106
7/30

Nor-t, '99. SIor-", '01 :JIOf-2, '98.:02. 7 No 8dj 101stll dslr of ~jve~lone Ntwrks,'01. I 2lor-l ,'02 .

'*

"Oc
"'0
"On

~:

"C'l>-

",CIIZ
lC - 0

.. O

",..,"C

0'-6
... :tw

mchJ:..
"':"';~i""

......

'

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 6 to FJH-6
Page 1 of 6

BUCKEYE PARTNERS
SAfETY
TECHNiCAl

Low:
11.'
LEGENDS
0.15 I Dill p

If.'
L_

...
(+,~:Zl

NlII'l~

AIWI1TotII
.... m

Pri"

.5
35

- -Insider Dec.isiDns

.....,.
....::~. "

."
""

.. 1'. " .....

14 .

18.5
15.0

10.5
15.4

21.4
17.1

30.0
20.1

....

31.1

295

26 .

25.0

21
2363

... ,.,

'" .......

10

"

P.rao-t

"50

T,It..-t Prictl Range

38.'

20 ..

28.4

.....

.'

,.,

"

......

,.

- -- -- - --

"""

.......

,.,

0, .. '

,~

"

'I' ',I hi"""

.......

.'

"
,.

... .

....
'"

...

(FIFO)

~ntory

.....""'..,

....

ANNUAL RATES

30.

H"

20.1"

d2.'
242.5

""
.....

ao"

"Cash FJow"
Eami1gs

B.O"

45"
45"

.....
,....

"""-

BOOk Value

-.....-...

--

,......
,.,
,
'"
~, ''"

....

..

3....

"'.
53.6

85.3 ".3
76.'
5O.t 525 56.'
56.9
58.7 5U
11.0
5U
U
~GSPERIJIiIITA
c.J.
.lad, J
1).<.31
.4S
.50
.53
.ri1
I...
.!lI
.55
.73
.61
2tIOO
.53
.51
.53
.80
.55
.59
.!6
.62
laO'
2002
.19
.'f .65 .15
Co>- QUARlERLY DISTRIBUTllNS PAD.

SU

.'s;.;:ie

....

lIar.31 JllnJl ,.- ... OK.3t


.375 .375
.525
'''7
.525
.525 52S
.525
.525 .55
.55

,,...
...

.Itd.r

.60

.60
.

.-

... """
"'.0

21.2'4

,.7
224.0

",!
10.5'1.
1:'.3'

233.7

...

11.7"

(5.1"

...--, ."..
112

..... ..,

43.'70

112

~.a"

211"

,.7
214.0
246.0
12.9'1.
19.6'
5.7"

16.'
214.0

46.1"

11.3

132

49.3

48.1

.va
13.6

-26.4"

OJ

102.1 240.0
3ll2.1

,,6\

2622 276.0
12.770
19.D'

10.K
16.1'

4.6\

6."

05

--

51.1'
16.4

"..

,.....

... '-',
"'

,...

'0"

35.2'4

,1>
S>
"

21.3'4
13.1

240.0

216.'

1111"
111.6'
HIlF

317.0
12.6"
20.6\
2.1\

10

...".

52.4"

-,.::

....

".0

,...... ,..

21.'

,u,
,,.
..171,.
SpIn"'
,
,,
"""
v.IuI,.

Uminp F* Unft ...


DbI. Ded'd per Iklit II
C""
BoaIl
UrM

345

.., .., ,....

1. 15

1J.f1l

<

fl.'

......
'1'1 ....
RIldin PIERaio
"'Ii AIIn' .., YiIId

."

7.'"

==
........
...
110

"..

0""",,:,,,"":1'

... '" w_.

tU%
11.5%
HIF

...

24.'

IL' nc...TuRdtD

Hi
H'
a", lU"

".B

2113.0
349.4
11.1"
18.5"

--

::

>D." >D.'"

101ft

p-"

2'~
2S:7

NIl: Pro"1IIr;1n

'>0

H'

I.....

C'I" (1001'

Il.

...... T~=1looI1

345 ......'C

tt.~
tl.",

R.... GI'I TlIbI


Rftn III

c."

PIItlb-Cul,

H. RIIIIMlI kI P....... c.p

'''''

AI Did. lEINIl Pra1

...'"

, '"
.....
...,.
""
1m""

b m.p oi and chlmilal ~


SDA:l
in Penna,lAniI.
.1Id IIiIois, 101tXl. BIIdc1IJe ~
Lne
Co. B. h! ~
p.nn .
01Ow pRIInhip'S cash dIItJtMJ..
ton is lD~.
onJl:li'. own IBsI than 1" d LP. unb {lIO 10K~ PrwLlCEO: WiIiIm H. S'-a. Org~ DE. Adm~ P.O. 8m: 36B,
Ermw.Y5, PA,1B04!1. Tel.: 800-422-2825. Web; ..... lIuctIIJecom.
~
~

sene

Buckeye Partners continues to per management


anticipates
a double-digit
fono well .. In the third quarter of dedlne. In the December period. Weak
demand. for jet fuel, which accounts for ap2001, the partnership's
net income per
unit increased 17% versus the year-earUer
proxJmately
15% of the top line, is also
uvemll pipeline
mark, to SO.62. as revenues adViU'lCedat a likely In 2002. But
solid 12% clip. Top-line growth was driven
volumes should edge higher. thanks ID an
and disUllate shJpby higher transportation
tariffs. resulting uptick In gasoline
from more long-haul shipments
along the
ments. as well 85 to a generally healthier

...

T.r

pipeline system. and a hike in gasoline,


distlUate. and LPG (liquefied. petrolewn
~)
volwnes.
Revenues
also benented
m Buckeye's
July
acquisitlon
of a
r.lpeline
system
and related.
terminals
now known as the "Norco- operaUons)
from TransMontaigne
for about $62 mllUon. The addftion of these assets, whim
are 81IDce complement to the partne~htp's
extst.ing pipeline
infrastructure.
should
produce substantlal
cost. synergies in 2002
and beyond, and enable Buckeye ta win
new business in the k.ey Chicago market.

184.5

3l!i.B
201.'

UI

,....
Full

U.S. economy. (GasoUne volumes ought to


get an added boost in the year ahead, as
more consumers choose to travel by caT Instead of plane.)

These good-quality
units may appeal
to fncome-oriented Investon:, They are

now trading at an attractJve


6.9% yield,
which represents
1I sizable premium aver
20S
the lo-year Treasury
note. What's more,
2.,
while the Issue offers limJted appreciation
~38
potential
to 2004-2006, our estimates
do
not factor In acquisltlons,
which are J:baU.
ble, in our view, considering
Bu eye's
... despite a significant decline in tur~ solid balance sheet and the likelihood that
bine fuel deliveries following the Sep- energy companies will continue to divest
1.12 tember Jlth teJTOrist attacks. Turbine their noncore pJ~e1Jne assets.
(please note
~10 fuel volumes
slipped
5% In the third
that a portion 0 the distribution
is treated
quarter. and. because of OJghtschedule reas a retwn on capital and is, therefore, tax
~40
ducUons by t he major domestic caniers
deferrable for new unitholders.)
;;1Ix1 consumers'
apparent
reluctance to fly. Justin Hellman
Derember 14. 2001

...'"

.625

.625

.11

SI'1:I f"'" N~ IC)', ",", -

roo
"" 1I!par1
............
: dilled
81". bel
norncurmg
Neld lIpS.
due ma.Jiln.'" fl).p,,"OO,
Nul dlDibuUses: '90. SO.78;
$1.05; "93. SO.09; '94. 1aI111Mting mid-JIIII. Goes tIIl..bout Flib. 8th.
SO.05; '97. $1.66; "98, $0.13. bel pin:~,
Approk. payrnenl cIlMs:!asi clay of Feb.. Mil',
lUI1. VM. ~
~.
lHiPUllUSI*A151r101AE

...,

'84'

44.11%

,., ".
....

lit. 04-06

CVALUEUNEPlII

RIWIIUft per Ulltl


CuIl ....
pwUnit

...
...." ... ~"

... ..
':l ........ .=.
no" .......
n
2DOO
laO'

--m

7.5"
,.",.
3.5%

QIlAllTEllLYRM>W

44.4"
11.0
41.1

H'

7.4"

8UUtS5:
~
P.....
LP. 11;. JMdIr IdIId j*tnnII"
.... gIId pnn.ty in CClnI'nCIrl ~.
hnspaWtion'" relinBd~
I"llIlun fI'Dduds. ncildi1g gllSOlIne (~
01" '00 YOllne~ jfIl: flleI
(261.). and disl...-es (23,"). Its subsi:lins (JIil'n.1Id or-*.boUI
3,_
mils rI pipeln. I8YIng 10 mtel, nat:IJ II .. ~
end Ul)PM" Mid'ft!Il Th. ~ip
Do opeI1Ites
under

11.9
10.9
10.2

7.011

35"

10.5%

"S.4'
10.'
34.'
."

...

11.'"
"... ,,.
,,,, ,,.
." "" ", .." 7" '"

1l.1"
HlIF

n ...
,.",.

~oIl
1".31 JUI.1O S.pJO Dec:J,
43.0
47.' 47.7 ".7

lOO1

'52'
8.8'1.

Pas1 Est'd .....

1tYn..

RBvenues

,,,.

50.,
B.O

--

'""'"

..."
1991

55.6
19.0

,.0..

23.' 22.7
---m; 2D

Cu~nlllab.

t ...

1'.4

32.2
11.1)

'.S

CurrenlAssw.
Aa::b PI~.bI.
Deb!: Due

45.1'
10.1

P.rtners' t.pbl26,915,326
unb IS'" at' c.p1J
Indulin 143,114 G.n.11I1 P.rtMlSh" 1I111s
as of tlt/11lDt
MARKET tAP: $I7S rnl.llioa (Small C.pJ
CURRftl1' POSJJION
II3llOI

12.5

50.'

1all.3

L... r.II, Uncapitalized Annual ren1a1li $.9 rril


Pettsion liability None.

22.0
.7

.~.
1~.

a of 1/]OIlI1
D.1n 5 Yrs $100.0 mi.
LT tntIftIt m.o mil
4~1
(019'" al'Q1p..,

Co
""""
R_

.-.
"" ,,-

-
,~.".. ,'"
,.,

.., .... .. ..

JrU;

... Tot RE1\RII 111D1

I .

-". ,[,...

,-

50

32

,"

.'

U,

....
20

Bucieye Partners acquired the pipeline 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
subsidiaries at The Penn Centraf Corp. (now 026 '.13
11.31
17O
1.10
."
72' aB
7-" 7.51
"S
American Financial Group) on Oecembor23, 1.61
,.10
lJO
U7
2.17
3."
3."
'44
1966 by soling 24.0 rrimon limited partner '26
CO, 2." 19,
2.41
1.31
1.72
'$
"B
,.so I.n 2.10 "B
ship unils Illihe publ~ at $10 each. GoId- 1.10 1.30 ,.10
1.40
1.40
2>D
2"
U,
man 5actls & Co. and Shea""n L.hman
.53
.74
.4S
.4S
.55
.n
.84 1.00 UQ
Brothers Inc.. were lie underwriters. The 10.40
10.13
10.79
11.35 1123 11.06
11.72
'Bo 'UO ,UO
'.32
partnership also sold 242,424 unils to its -m< """lrn" """llK --,ur --mtr <06' """"26.9T <6W
n." -n...
general managing partllElr, Buckeye Man
9]
95
10.3
139 ,1.1
12.'
agamont Company. at $10 each. Buaeyo
.
.13
.fiT
.
!iT
.n
.7'
;;;
Partners is one of the largest iI'Idependenl
7.3'
1.6"
8.1"
7.1"
8.0"
7"
pipeline common caniers in the U.S.
US
183.0
1BS.0
3Il5.1
!25
151.1
163.1
175.5
186.3
183.5
CAPrrAL STRIJtTVRE
Total Debt S340.0mil.
LT Deb!: $340.0 mi.
(Tocal iJlI!res( amnge;

2005 2006
eo

_ .. -

~':e.~~

.. " ..-

33

31.9
25.0

2..f 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ln5utuUol\IIl Dedslonli

~~O.791~6.9%

2m

000
1 0 0 0 0 1
00000
0 0 0 0

20.8

16.1

....
=~~..,~

~o 11m- ~eQ
2IlO4-06
PROJECTIONS

BElA

I~ 36.091~Til15.0(=;:U)

Hivt:T1'~1 '4'~1
11.8 12.9

3 Rlr.cd JlZ1f111
2 "-'JJ2lm
4 LMltd1211411J1

TIIEUN[SS

NYSEBPL

..-

M ~
rt:5IMlI. F8CluII .......
is ~
IIanl ~
bMwlIlD
5JIlU OAAIlYERAOASOAOIIS:lOIIISIlEIUIlI.Tlliipbi:.iunioSl'idJb

""-.I.~in

......

.-m ....

IIMII_

'.

b m........
:~
(D) F19lftS .. IlOl: ~bIe
tI\Qsl 01
IPOIIt cOl_..titiaI unci.- v.kIe lil........,
snc:. Buc:lwyep.,s; mini'M1, 1.11)', tax_

-LtiMI.
~

bR reIIIIIIt .. Is ,.....eI .....


nlTII*s aF
.........
lo-.-.C=._daLioIooMl
....
'.1Irl:hni:
....a

BtDd:'. Price Sbllrill\J


PricI Crowth PeniItHca
Earnings p~",
I

'..

100
&5
85
,
,II.

II',

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 6 to FJH-6
Page 20f6

KINDER MORGAN EN. NYSEKMP I


3 lwrledl1l)Q1Dl
3 ... ""'"
3l-m,~

1IlIEUNESS
WID

~
Insider

Gain

55 1+55"l
40
+'0%

..-. =r:r=~~
A_.

........
....
:::.1 )4':

Za-1.

OC:..

...""

""*-'tJ;

"~nt

52

20.6

6.1

6.a

....... ...... ,." .

'-'"

,., .......

.. "..

...
,,~.

,..
5.'

Leues, UncapltallZect. Annual Rlfllals S30.fi Ili1L


Pension lillbillty $167 mil in'OO; IlDnllin W

P~I1M1S' Qpltll: 16S,291,mO un3l.


'29.786118 publldy hU:l aII'I'II'I)II unils
35,!104,8Q2 dilu B and i llni11;
(56% ofc.p1l
MARKETCAP: $5.1 billion (La. Cap)
CURREPIT posrrDN
'HI

""'"'

6..,

59.3
340j
29.1

"'.7
O.

5iTI
__ 0

4471

148.6
1099.0

.....

40"
71.8
13.0

'.0

..,..,

....

7......

301.5

2092
90.7

166.6

1905
152.'

'.6

.-

Lr o.bf $2472 .... m .


LTIlIbrwt $175.aml.
{lT 1Ilt~
ewnltll: 2.b:)
(44%dC.p1l

t_LLl

24.11.

6.6

--

.-

136.9
10.3"
10.3'
10.3"

.-

'1%

'''''
'-'"
33%

319.2

Post
'IYn.
~""'I-""'I
Ro"",,_
"Cash Flow"
E.mings
Dividendi.
Book Value

,,~ _'M-.
....

.....
,.

Ed'd'll-'.

11.~
OJ

11.1

..

11.1'

20.6'

'30j
132.4

6.'"

,SQ.,
12115

6.5'

6.1"
8.6"

NIF
NIF

NM>

I.OS
1.19
.39
13.81

".ID

6<%
322.6

".9%

I.-

enda'

'197
'191

280t

.,

'''''

QUARlERLfOISTRlBUTQlS'AII C
.u"'1
Jun.30 Sta.3Q Dec.31 .
.156
.156
.25 15
.!2
.282
.315
1.19
182
.325
.35 J63
1.39
.3S
.363
.425 A25
.3!8
.475
.525 55
.525

'"

11.1

--

.,5

1.'"

..,. '''''

'56'

THPU8USt1[RISNOTRf NSIII[
,,~ .,
III ~
onIti -.Ill.

.,

.70

'-II
1.3,

III' '''''
NIF NIF
"'"

NM>

1030

Kinder
tinues

management's

15.43

11.50

published

es-

Umates on the relationship between the


two. But much of the growth in KMP's
e~
and distributions per unit has
come om assets acquired from Kinder
Morgan, Inc.. including Kinder Morgan
Toxas
Pipeline,
which the Partnership

*OIOIC.

aim ....

I."

c""..-..

11.11 ....

per UnII

_perUel1

'"17

16.0

1.11

1.01
'5'1.

41U

8164

.2

53.6%
Oil
115.3

;;0;

11110

AYg
__ ....

...........,,,

NM'

""

"".... mo
,... Lono-~=1\nI1

...

'o.IE
f.'" MI'
.IE

..,
27ll

.'" "" "'1u"*

U.

f.ft

Ill."

.710

>Ill
'Ull

top, tlnlJ

-.

u.

111

n..

.40 0""",,:,"~.I

d,..

3.1#

1.35

325ll

'40

2D.75

u.

11' 115'1
1looI1YlIIlII

n.. n..

-...C

Rnn.1.w CIVI

'0% RIIIn. ,."..m'l


RItIIIIMI " PIrI... Cip
AI Dbd. " .... 1'nII

MI'

............

....
IOIF

~Ines, ZfiY:.; C02, 13'-; bua ~,


10".lIo.
0..11: 2.4%.
IW MlDUt 1,300 8ITI~,
38,000 unI hl*In. KiIds Margan,
IIll:. owns 1~ at th!1,I1IIJ eM)1 ~}.
Cbainin & CEO at
~ genBfaI J*h*: Ridwd o. Km.r; Va CImIl.: Wliam V.
Margan; PrM.: Michael UoIgan. Ora.: DE. Addr..: 500
HIluston, lX, 1TOO2. T . ; 71)..369-8C1)O. WI!b; _.~.com.

cw.:

bought last December 31st fOl"about $700


million. KMI has now sold most or the as
sets that would work for the PBrtnershtp;
so In the future, KMP will have to rely
more on other sources. 'I'herefm-e, we think
growth Is likely to slow. But operations BCquJred in the past. year should. continue to
J!enerate
year-<M!f-year
growth through
the second quarter, and sQlTlesmaller
recent deals will help, too.
The same formula should keep cash
growing
at _ healthy
distributions
rate
out to 2001-2006. The major Integrated oil companJes have been sources
of acquisitions for KMP, and that should
continue, after they review their ponfoUos
following recent megamergers. lbe bulk
terminal

Is highly

Industry

fragmented.

which offers the Partnership nwnerous opt:r1ll1rltles. And fadUties expaMons and
uying out jDlnt venture partners
are
other avenues fo~
These units 0 er worthwhile
total
retunJ

potentiaL

There

be

should

enough assets {OJ' sale and suffident inter-nal prospects to lift. cash distributions per
unit and
a htgher unit prlce.

Slfpor1.
. Romaine

'"';lr-.......
......"'"......~.........
- ..
Sigourney

""dFeb
...diftb.lNov. HotIen aRt nd
W8d an CIIsh
''''' rAthe ,-.',
cash dllbilutols.
tn,
but on thei" proportIol'* sMreI 01 a. (elln mlioRI, Ujusf2d b spits.
KWP'I ~b
income.. In U. tnI }'I* of
F'" ___is *-.n *'- ~
tdftelllO tie ~
... Do p..-., ...... ....,
rI ~ UId.
ORNlffrcJl0R50aOMlSSlONSH~Rf... ~o;*dJbwDmm~
... ~_
.. IIIIlIIII-.
P-'

tnIr.RIIlIII" er ......

'.15 Eon<np per "'"


U. Dill. Dld'd ..... lWl

-,.,...... ....
... ..... ..... ...-.....

14.81

.....

"*_

........nome. ofiIans:
........ '99: 1"'.
EJeL
NIXl egs. rep. clue rnid..Jan. {II MDt d....
lrtcln mMbng mid-Jan.; pl ...
.an. Disl
mn, ....... Lm ~1Jr..
AI ~~.

."
.51 ."

mu

-il_r ............

lAl
ship__nbnst.

1.19

"'

BUSINESS: KinlHr 1I0fVIIII EnervY Partna, LP~ tile namn'.


IIIrvest pipelm mnB linned pnnhip. It 0IiI'nI aboul. 1D,5OO
mEs 01 petrDiNn pmdllds n
CO2 ~;
10,000 miI!s of
IIIIhnI vas ~111!5; and
iquids &mila" -.:l dry buill hMfg
r.::MieL Acqund s.ntI HI Pdc
PipMnll Part'a., '98; GAl)[
auels, 1Q '01. 2000 op.WIc.: prvducts pipll~,
5''1.; gas

That supPOrts

3.63
1.<3
112

2002 YALlElJIENi ~~
11.70 21.11 R.."ua pw UnIt
-c... flow- prl.Wl

37.3
12.6
1111
271.
11.3,
51%
10.1'
1.3'
17.6\ 16.71i 24.~
36.3'
34.1'
10. 10.4 d7.& d187.3 11587.7
146.8 580.' i119.1 1255.5
1111.1
123.1 111.3
'501 1J6D.1
6j%
9.&%
8.1"
7.3%
7."
10.1\
11.11'10 11.&"
13.'71
NIlF
NIF
NM' NMf

,U

...,.,..

"

,.
ea.

.""
,"-'
".1
'~
.
3~
154.'

20~~
6.OS
2.'"
1.34
I.'"

,
'
'
.
ID

""
-..= ~...- ......".......
,... "., ".,

..n
,.

- ..

......

,,....... ,~....
I. Tot RItIIIf 11111

..
L'"

..
48

12

..

3.10

50
54

- --

32

'"

.....

--

2'"

,."
"

eV

Morgan Energy Partners


conto deUver. The thtrd quaner's
solid gains in earnings and cash distrlbu-- 13.0" 37.57'
Uons per limited parlne13rup unit were
155%
-- 23.0%
''-Sll
driven largely by about $2.2 billion of Be
-- '0.0% 1f.a"
in all four segments closed be
-- 22.50 13.OK q1.dsttlons
tween December 2000 and last summer.
Most operations, however, also showed
ea. 011..,.,..' IlE'IIMlS IIoIIj
some internal growth; the Padflc Products
",1 Jun.3t Sep. DIe. 31
36.8
82.0 101.9 101.9 322- pipeline system Increased profits by 4%,
'191
100.1 102.. 1tW... 121.~ ~8 . on B stm:llar volume gain. without acquis:l
from its
157.4 193.8 20'-6
262.a 116.' lions. And KMP earned 19% ~
ZOO,
51% holding in Plantation Pipeline, mostly
1028.6 735.8 636.5 NT.t USll
z002
as a result or Improving operations afler It
125
m II"
took over management of the line.
~5PER6IIME
ColWe look for solid gains
next year,
"ar.31
Jlln.3O S.D.3O Dec. 31
119.
.25
.26
.26
.m 1.05 though at a slower pace. Increases In
the asset base since last December have
.3, .31 .3'
.29
'12
.32
.35
.34
1.34 allowed Kinder Morgan Energy to raise
.33
z001
.45
.36
.:r1
.40 '51 the annual cash distribution per unit by
.
_ft
2802
.lI
m $0.20 per billion dollars of acquisitions.

CurrertUab.

ANNUAl..RATES

---

I~

,.

".,1

... "

,.- 1.1'

CAPrTAL STRUCTURE u of 113M11

131.9
18.3

200.

...,

Total DlIbt $2662.9 mi. D_ In 5 Yn $980 rriI.

AI:.dA f'aym.le
DeblDu.

Y-rv-t, Price Range

252

--

Current AsSIIts

39.7

"2

...-

....

Rl!ceivabll!!l
~entory (Avg Cst)

28.9

16.5

...

eo..........

22.a

'00

Kindor Morgan Energy Pamo.. (KMP) 1991 '992 199~~'~ 119~9


was fanned in '992 as Enron Liquids
2.74
2.16
W
'.03
'23
PipeJine, lP., 10 awn and oper.zle certain
.n
.19
.7!I
Jl
.69
Jl
jl
Enmn Corp. assets. The Partnership oIIered
15
.18
.47
A3
22.6 million limited partnership unit; to the
-.
.Ill
.55
.63
.BI
.63
.63
public in '992 al $5.75 per un~ adjuslBd lor
U~
.07
.33
16
11
12
.10
.
.pIit5, through Lehman Brothers. In Fem...50
5.41
'.Ill
ary 1997, R~hard Kinder an<! Wilham
;
n.60
Morgan formed Kinder Morgan, Inc., which
1 f
-21.0
_. '501 ~11.12. 15.
,JIll
acquired Ihe Parlnership's general par1ner.
1.<10
.B2
In OCtober 1999, Kinder Morgan, Inc. was
.n 8,6," 5.9%
U%
acquired by K N Energy, which simulla50j
71.3
73J
13.'
".0
neously changed its name to Kinder
37E, 50.4'
591. .63.01 55.6'
Morgan, Inc. IKMIJ, with Mr. Kindor as CEO.
.j
10.1
OJ
71
'.6

....

'9,1
14.3

.'

&

50
50
30111

'5320

7.3

- ,.

....,

.. 101.' ....

zeu.,

87

60

rt'a'uiOII

00101
0 0 0 5
CO- 000 0 0 0 0 0 0
000000000
Instllulianal Decisions

1D2.,

6.7

a.a
5.a

icrSl"Blgll
11n1
!M7I

HIll"'-

AM'TIllaI
Rnum

Decisions
Jf.".JJAS

a2
6.5

LEGENDS

TECHNICAL
lUll, .n n.Do. MIlkli)
2.....
PROJ<CT!"NS
Price

6.a
5.'

High:

Low:

35.641~m 22.2 (=~i~)~~ 1.201~ 6.4%

I~CEHT
PllICE

ill ,...,.., ..uIilIg.., pNItIl

1Id_

Yni;:e.

-.:s.

fJrecf!rnber

21.2001

StDdn
rice Stablltr
PIb Growth ~
&ral. PNdicDbIItJ
I

I,

80
TO
56

:11:

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 6 to FJH-6
Page 3 of 6

TEPPCO PARTNERS NYSE1PP


10~1

T1MEUIIIESS

SArETY

3 H"YZlOl
3 lMR'dlM"l

T[CHNICAl..

High:
law:
LEGENDS

l~tdl2JZlm

2-4111-'.

..
......

GaiII

.0

cc..~ ....

lrJ

oJ

"u.

000010030

11

30.7

10B

23.3

""1"1,

28.3
17.1

27.0
19.1

Target Price Range


20 .. 2005 12006

36.5
2. 4

.,"

0"

60
50

,,11"1

"',. "'.,
.'"" "'0" ,,.deII

P.rcent

26

"

... .. .

"

..

12

.. . .

.... ...

'

T.5

..

,... ,...

,.,
." ... ...., "'

..

..
..
..
..
..

..
,.X
..

--

...

,..

...

..
..
,,-'" '~.DY.

...,

... ..

,<;r' 01capl)

... rt..... 5 UIIIs 3B,900,~ ~~I&.


MARKET CAP: nz b lon Mid ClIp

Ca:-~

.
,..

32.6

Rec:eivilbllls
fnotermy (Avg Ccl)
Other
Cunam As.Is

,."

II3lMIl

27.1

33.0

3lJ3.'

293.'
26.8

'.1

363.'

263.0
208 .

-- '0'"
-57.9

0.,,"'"

.......,

31.1
2-43.5

""'"'

CufMntlillb.

n;;:3

un:. .......
~""''''''I"",
,.." .....
..." .........
~J:s
..." 31~~II00I.I ...,
Put

ANNUAL RATES

Book VIIIue

,.
Co!-

Put

&t'd .... 10

53.0%

g.5"

II fn.

''Cashfb('

8_0%
13.ll1l
-1.0%

QUAIl"",-,

9.0%
002.0",

6.'"
13.0%

RE'IBNES

IIlr.31 Jln.
JO OK. 31 Y1.
!ll.2
61.6 54.2 213.& 429.
286.1 .... 3 5....
&39.1 '934.9
2DDD
750.7 7'1.7 756.2 830.3 3087
785.2
1073.7
2101
9!ID.' 15D.3 3100
2D02
910
'000 1.50
EAIlIIIIGS (PER IINlllA
c
1I1r.31 JIlL 10 SIp.30 Dee. 31
1.
.39
.39
.C!
1.61
.64
.38
.32
.51
1.91
'II!
2DDD
.60
.35
.41
.53
1.89
2D01
.55
.54
.35
1.10
2D02
.15
A2
105
IIUAII1IRLY DIS!. ffR 1IIIIl).
CoIKar.31 Jun.3D SepJl Dec.31 Yo,
1m ,375
J15 . .40
.40
1.55
1198
1.7,
.425
A25
.45
1M
.475 .415 1.85
.475
50
.60
.625
200
2tI01
.525
525
.525 515

.-

..... '".,

'00'
Y."

.m

.-.

.-

... ...

IAI .....

20-'"
6IJ

62\

....'"

1.8'11.

7.'"
9.''11.

NO'
120'

9.01
14.4'

22....
".3
331'
169.6 216.4
10.4'
1005'

23.6'
61J
349.5

11.3'11.

21."

21.6'

51.1

"..,

3'95

"'...

."."
...

'''''

IUSIlESS:

,.,
,.,

".
,.,

..

..

....

3.1'l'.
10.
4~.8
22..
12.8\

1H'

290J
12.3'
,.2\

427.7
2272

12.8"
202\
.J,

19'

1D.4%
23.~'II.

31.4'

'p.
'po
'po

....

".1

12'

10.7

130.3

eVl1.UE I.N P\Il~lit.


RI1IIII1t1

per"

-...
"'10

"Cash ReM" I*' unit


ElminppwWllt II.
Drldl Ded'd pi!'" lnIit

U,
t..
t..

5...
.......
.""",."

Cop,_."""""

--.... ...""....

,U

,.......

It..

RIIIdIYI PII: ROo

....
,... "......" ""'
..''"~
"
... ..,-"""
1
-....:'::' \::'"
n.
'"
..

>l' U" ...." W_, Cop"1"'"1 ~'"


....
"' ... .., _Cop'1W1
"..
'"

..

....

tD.O

'.1

'-'"

24.6%

11.11"'''

12'4

./If
./If

""

Ann'! th'd YIIIId

RlMllun

51..

IW'

.. ..._.17.

315.1

10"

1.5"
f ....
,."
,."

~1

11.

.....

..... 7.......

~~

Rftim on TGI.II~'1
Rnam on PIm~, CMI'
R....
IDCcnEq
AI Div"ds to NIl Prat

175
10.sx.

.....'..."
""

TUB IInd Oklltana. lU. EastIm Pr1lCIudI Pipllh Camp;wy


ill en indincl aubsid.,- fA Cu. EI*i)' cap, whidl Kts as ..
gltrH!lilll.....
dTEPPCO. LP. F'nMillnl, CMinn & CEO: Wt8n L. TMct.EI". Adlhsa: TEPPCO p.....
LP., zg:zg Alen
FWtway P.O. Bax 2521, Houston, Tuu
m.52-2521. Ta: 713759-3638. InBnlIt _.tappco..am.

has benefited
from higher The system should add at least 5()()
tariffs.. The FERC's ded.- MMcfd. of capacity to TEPPCO's trans-sion allowing TEPPCO to charge market JMlrtationoperations. and should be acaebased rates has lIk.eJ.yallowed for price tlve to earnings by mid-2002. While the 8Chikes. A roughly 10% increase in tartf'fs quJsltion was paid for in cash. the mffip81has helped boost results from the refined ny has Issued another $5 mlUIon limited
products segment, despite relatively nat partner units to 8nance the transaction.
volwnes. TransportaUon volumes have Management has indicated that further
leveled off due to higher Inventory levels, B<XJ.uisiUons
will be considered. Future
as well as the tenntnation of the Pennzo:ll~ purchases will likely be financed with unit
Quaker SLate agreemenL Jet fuel volumes issuances. In order to Maintain debttowere notably law (a decrease of about 5%) equity leveJs or about 50%.
due 10reduced air traffic, as a result of the TEPPCO
has Increased Its dlstribuSeptember 11th events. However. much at' tion by about 10%. The company generathis weakness was offset by increased tes adequate cash to cover its distrlbuUons
transportation
of liquefied petroleum safely. And. despite the high payout ratio,
gases (LPCs), and petrochemicals_ We ex- further. but more moderate. distrlbuLion
peet volume levels to remaJn steady, pos- hikes are possible as operations to
stbly rising somewhat. due to continuing These units are untimely an
wUI
demand. and tariffs should remain high, likely underperform the maJit:et in the
despite slightly softer conunodity prices.
year ahead. Due to high distributions.
TEPPCO continues to remain active and additional equity financing. earnings
on the acquisition
front. In early Octo- per share increases will likely not be dra
ber. the company acquired the Jonah Gas maUc going forward. Despite the aUraeCathering Company. which has about 300 tlve 7% yield, our estimates indicate that
miles of pipeline, for about $360 million. these shares offer limited price appreci
This will Jna-ease rnppco's
ability tD atlOn potential (ar the next 3 to 5 years.
service the ~asonal natural gas markets . Adam Rosner
December21. 2001
TEPPCO

transportation

r...

:JBnd..

com"""" .........

.,;0,51.......
tDJ In mlDI5.

~juSleci b s1Dd: spit.

lilt ~
lilt. All ~
l~.
fKlull ...... illllllllIIiIIed IlI:III ~.....,
.. .., I ....
MIl
pRikd 1IiI'-..~
TH[PUBUStl:RISJIOTR
POIil58LE OAAJIYRAORSOAOIII1SICINSH[AE ... ll1is~is*idJb'IIIIrsaiIIBs-.~ciIL"""_'
1ItMII(1IIlnlI.~..
....,;;.~
...... lIllIll.
....
'.~
.....

.rIm"

,...

....

.. .. .., ......,
'"

'" n ............. 'Ms "-'~


bouI J... 2OIh.
mg. Exdades nonnQllring pins jm-s). Next dalss: about thIl 5th at FIIbnlMy, May. August,
BmIings.epmt due".IIn.
and NanntIar.
(81 Next di!drbrlix1 ~g
abold Jan. 181h. Ie) Indw.
ilIanglEs. AI 12131DJ S3U
zan, ~

.., ..

....., "".. ....., .."..

>e' 4.'1',,, ">.1,


.., ,6\,

"'

,.,

TEPPCO Partners, loP ... a publdy bd.cI n-t_


Imlad pftilfthip whdl opem. ill two distid ~
The TE
6.2
Prodldl PlPeil'lll carpany is a a.r;e ~
cmiIr 01 ntnell
359.' ~
prDdlEts,
as
nil
as
IIQlMI
gues,
openIq
pi294A
3.0.0 rMriIr II II. c.nhl and Mldnsfam UnblI Sta1n. TEPPCO
Quda' 01, U.C. bnsporls aID mM:I!ts CJ1Ide 01 mid III1!lnt pI in
7".9

2U

16.S

AI::ds Plr)'able

--

,...

,H9

..

"'.,
",. ....,
200.6 251.0 257.4
".7

" ....

., ...
,

'OJ,

Penslon U.b1nty None

'"

..."

....... -
....""... ......

" Tot. RETtJIJI '11""

2.'

..

CURRENT pD$rrlON

- "

"

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 199. 1997 1998 1999 20~001
2002
UO
14.049 ".13
.W
.63
-'.73 633 6ID 7.02
..
.. ..,3
2.B1
>02
170
U1
3.33
3.01
U5
2."
>0'
24'
..
..
..
,>I 1.90 1.95 1.61
1.51
1.99
tOO
---..
..
.60
1.60
1.10
1.10
1.11
110
1.13
1.43
W
ZJIl
--2."
..
..
1.14
.72
.79
.10
57
1.n
t61 2.00
'-', 1.10
---..
..
..
9.19
9.41
1010
1.11
'.90
'.13
'.W 175 fUll
'51 '.79
.. 2BJiIf 29M ~llr "'.00 "'.00 <9:00 mo 29.00 29.61 29.00 . 36.62
..
..
-fl."
..
..
..
lOJ
IU
1D.'
12.' 11.
-~
..
..
..
.61
.63
.7
.9S
.76
.71
.Il
-;;;; ;;;
..
..
..
8.71,
7.5'10
6.3'
8.5'
-- 6.0% 10.K '.n;
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as or JJ3M11
'63J '612 '83.6 '9703 203.7 216.0 222., 429.6 1934J 3D87J
latal Debt S1221.8mll. D.-In S Yrs$413 Q m.
49.6' 51..
02.7'4 49.(IIJ, 56.3'
7.4'
21."
LT Dlirt $861.8 mi.
LT ~rnt $55.0mill.
32.,
23.
29J
23>
23J
302
23.'
23.'
23.'
21.'
(7'" of Cop'Q
53.3
312
613
19J
24J
73.1
72'
Lasn. U,,"ptlallzed: $10.40 mil.

..

-..

32

.. -

"

1885 1118. 1987 1988

-..

"
"
2D

Il15tilLllional DecilllDn.
'lDlI'

28.3

,"'"

0 , 004

....
::~.....

II

21.1
17.1

1'10"

- .. .. .h_ J.,.
ODD

15 6(trOl'"
Ii!) :r~O.841~ 7.5%
Iil~i~:
12J

18.6
12.6

2-for'

l~?~l.."
3"

15.0
12.13

",

oJ A I
0 1 0 1 1 0 0 04

'''.8
10.9

RIIUnl

.20%
2'
In_icier DKi5ion.
~ f

RAOO

II

11.9
9.8

on.DioLpn

2001-0' PiWlECTJONS
Ann, Total

,....

8.0

I~ 30 551~!

diYidtlll~~R*
. . .. RlMft
SlJlI1gOl

t'l.DD-MirkII)

~.6ll

11~
8.3

F~._,
stabIIIJ

eomoo..,..
Iktcll" Price

stoo.",

PrIeI Crowtb PftUdeIIce


Earnklp p.wawltr
.. :-;. .....
~

t,

.11.

95
110
go
11-

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 6 to FJH.6
Page 4 of 6

EL PASO CORP. NYSE.EPG


lIIWllm
SAfETY
TICHNICAL

3 '-'111'"
3 N~llJMl
4 lM'Rd 12nWl

!RECENT
IP~II

! Low:

HighO

15.7
10.~

20.2
'~2

20.9
'''.8

18.3
12.4

26.6
'4.3

33.11 3'1.9
24..4 24.1

43.4
30.7

_WI

I)'

4 0

...,,""

2DU 2005 2006


_

''''

10a

eo
eo

",1'1'"

Retul1l
.. "
15%

1 1 ,

Tal"llR Price Rangt

75.3
35.0

,.

LEGENDS
lQ.D.-C.oJlFlcJlr"p!ltl

J f A J J A I
..,
0 0 , 0 1 0 0 0 0
~011'40211

2.3%

IlIV'D
lIJ)

74.3
30.3

lET" .as (l.lll-Mi"CI


~&
PROJECTlONS
Pri;e
tan
~
115 1,!,145%!
.....
85
t+tiS'%.
11'I5k1_rDKI5Iaft5

----,

3900liPf
1l.D) IlEUM
.,
jRAT1Il 12 2 (I,*,U:
M... dlllF
P(RAT1Il. 066

50

'"
'"'"
"

/'

",

50

f---j--+---j-""''!''--:+-''':1Uj''''';;r.tot''---t--I'---t---t----jI--+----t--t----t---+
"
11
11..

1 2

..

... .

..

.~I

~..

....~.

_
i

f---8 Paso NaMai Gas Company

10
T.5

" Tot RETtII:II 11tR1

..

1~

3yr.
5 yr.

94I.T
177.&

"'f!f'1-30A
TO.T

began

supplying n8100lI gas to the industrial compie. d TIs namesake city in 192R In March
1992, !he co""any conducted an initial pUbr~ oIIaring of about 15% of ~s sloclLA

month later, Bu~ington Resources Inc., EI f--"'-I-ni-f--T.~Paso's paJM1 canpan)' allhe lime, dislfib.
u1.ed the remaining 85% tl its own
holders. N part 01 a restructuring in August Iof 1998, the company re'ncorpor.lled as EI

~1<-I.,wf--iii+__m+-TIrr--T;;+-.i1r--ffi+_TI.~;.r;.;;:~;;";;;""'=t-i';-i-l

stOckl-jj"t~ct=~tt~~~jt~~:P!~~~~~~~~~~g~~~~

Paso Energy Corp., and a pipeline sUbsidiary


assumed the original name. In February
012000. ~ dropped "En"'1lY" from ~s name.
CAPITAL STRUCTURE

f--=71-=:-:-,r.:~t_::=:-/-:=;+.=":;+;;;;::-I~:::-t_::;;;;+_:=:+~;;;f_:;;=lr.==:::;;:;;:='-t-;=;_J

as 0I11lO101

61.3
18.6

1Jl
76.3

~.1
91.1

6.0
89.6

12.1
BS.4

39.21 39.51. 35.8'

37.n

(Tolar ~
coverage: 3.OX)
(fi2% of c.p'l)
Luses,UlKapKalizMlAnnualrentall5$41.0mill
P1I:I Stock Non.
~~~ock
51D,3'\.4,253 sits. (311,," DfCap1)
IlARKETCAP:.'UbiIJim(LarpCapl
CURRENTPOSrrlJN
1.
zaoo
1l3OIU1
~

12.0\
9.5"
295J
dS.9
6240
631.1
8149
669.0
62'11. !l.8'11.
10~
11.4'11.
109'
NMF
.
NIlIF

10.'"
d:Sl.5
1Yl.!

3.4\
tflI.l.D dB35.0
211~.O 2119.0
1934.D 2259.0
3.1\
6.1,
!l.3'
9.3'10
2.9'lo
5.6'
53'
481

10.3" 8.2"1
d152.J ct274.0
179.1
171..9
707.6 700.6 712,2
8.6'
1.7'11. 1.ft
13.0'11. 12.6'11. 120"4
7.3'
6.5\0
5.n.
~,

.n. ~,

269.0
250.0

31~
33.1"
3.71 4,3"

609
435
'2S.s'lo

4.'"
cl95J.O
09t
~D
52Z3
24D8.0
3'll1
72'11. 1.1'
10.4'11. 13.3%
6. '
7.n.
46'
48'

T115 ~(~.I
1ISO Nil PrDIt.-,

fUS

~J
33.0"
ZJ'4

n.n. an;

11.

d391
6514
3569
1.11'lo
18.0'11.
12.711,
29'

dJIID
13140
1375
fD,,",
1'-0%
f5.5J,
M

1'"

fUll
.025

JZ.b.
1ft

IncrnITu....

~.~ 1bt .... ,,1IIIrgIn


d3IJD Wodi1g CIp' ("'111)
nt4ll
u.g-TWllDlblnn-1

fit.

121.

J7J5 &hI: flMlltY ,,.. .. 1


to.9
rtn.n.TlIbI CIp'
f10% Rnn .
E~

1U
fl.B
fl'"
fl5J,

It""
R.tIiMdtoCanl.Eq
Z5% A1Di'f'dsIDNIIPraf

mIo

BU'tlESS; El Paso Corpcntion', (t"mnerIy El Paso E"IIJVYCarp.) 5),000 ",III of pipd'le. AcquRI CoaQI, 1101;SonIl, 1.
74
167
9l5O ~
indudll lie hnsporb,
IIdwinll, prtQS5III\I, Md
TennlCD'''lIiJ*ine ops., 12196; ~
NIItYIaI GIIs, MI6. 'DO
830
55!2
399fj
ItDraIl8 of uturII gas; lie r-t8tIng of nItInI tIM, power, MId oepr. fa'!e: 3.0%. Has .btUl f5,OO:I.mpk. 0lI'L'dn. 0Jm
III
2911
100711 ""i2B2
IlIher 8IdVY WI.' jibs; pcM'I!I ~;
ltIe uplor;ltion & pono. (3,(l1 Proxy). Chmn, PIa, .rId CEO; WiiIm A. W... Inc.:
1537
"152
7035 duttion d uhnIp & DII; and lie cl8w~
& Dperation DIen- DE. Adt'.: EI PIlSOE~
Buiiing. 1001lJIu_1III st, tblston.
1465
2458
m3
_
itIhaudin fal:iltillls.lt tM1IS l1li" t.1'"
~
i'l.bout
TUllSmXl2..
Tet.:(7'3J"20-2131.1~
.....
-.CXIII'I.
700
3857
3962 1-::-;:---'-'-:-'-"--..,.-"---,;;-,....----':----:-;---""7':-c:'--:-'''''-;;--'---,:;-;--7----',.".=-'-:-:--j
CUlTerHab.
37Q2 lO467
13TIO Comparisons
to a disb'e5sed competiduded that E1 Paso dJd Improperly
romANNUAl RATES Pat
Put Est'd .... M tor seem to be weighing on El
Paso . municate pridng and capacity information
~::.:
InventDl)' (Avg Cst)
Other
Cumtnt ~
Acds Payable
DeblDulil
Oth&t

afct-Qlp-Ihl

~~,

1~

z.~

In,."

HIL

to....

~:~~~::g~f~:~
-3.5%

Earnings

11.5%

f3.~

OrIlClends

-6.0,,"
".OK
-6.0% 9.5% '1.0"
C111- QIIARTERLTRaBIUES"...,D full
..,
1I1r.31JudO SepJd Dec.31 y.,
,.
1519 1296 1&15 1252 51B2
,.
227S 2600 3263 2443 10581
2M
3101i ~m
69B7 7630 21950
2001 7754 13363 13845 13531 51500
Book Val.

ZDD23500 U750 1375a ,.0

cas.

236.0
211.0

37.0'4 38.'"

~:cl~~~~~:~in~~='~~.

101.0
103.0

TatalDdrtS'5,.4J9rn.f.Du. In 5 YI'II13,57S,"I.

55000

~PERSHAR"'D
....
lI.r.31 Jun.30 Se,.30 Dec.31
,.
.
.45
.-13
.~9
1.
.-43
.4t
G
.~7
2101
.70
.69
.~
.73
ZOII1 .96
.19
.78
.71
ZlGZ .10
.15
.10
.IS
c.llIfARIBLfDNlJENOSPAI)" .
_a,
IIlr.31 Jln.31 Sen.3QDec.11
1117 .175 .183 .183 .143
,.
.183 .191 .191 .191
,.
.191 .20
.20
.20
2DOI .20
.20& .200 .206
2001 .206
.2125 .2125 .2125

Fila
Yea'

1.45
1.80
2.69
3.30

ua

Full
flU

.n
.7&
.79
!2

stock. At issue with investors is the company's use of levernged,


off-balance-sheet
financtng vehicles sirollll{' to the ones that
contributed
to the cnIlapse of Enron. But
unlike those of its rival, EPG's obllgaUons
(totaling
about $2.0 btJJlon) are secured
by
tangjble
assets operating under long-term
contracts. Also. management
has annoWlCed a program to restructure
the balance
sheet, with the primary
goals to absorb
these debt instruments and improve transparency, whlle reducing
overall leverage.
Elements
of the plan include the sale of
$2.25 billion In non-core assets, a scaledback capJtal budget, and, perhaps, the Issuance
of stock. We will adjust our eamtogs model as transactions
are executed.
Meanwhile,
a lawsuit
that has also
pressured
El Paso
shares
of late
is
nearing
conclusiolL
The judge evaluatIng allegations
that EPC used a block or
pJpeJtne capadty
to manipulate
natural
gas prices in California did not find sum
dent evidence. and will recommend to regulators that the charge be dlsmIssed.
At
the same time, though,
the f"rndlng con-

~Ii

(AI Bned an ......


Ih.. DlJtstanding January.
tlwugh lI6, dlk*ld u-.afIl1". Excludes net (81 Ned _idelld m&e(i'lg in lillie "'lIUlily.
~
lints: '86, dB3I; W, d$2.&:J; '00, Goes ~ .-Iy ~.
DNiMnds pai:t 011 Dr
25; '01, 4110. Nut umi'lp r.pnrt due 1ft ~ the 1st 01Janu.y, AprI, Ju" &~.
II Z1II1.
Ville ~
~
lAc.. M"",5~.
~1dUII1IIIII5iII
ilIlIIIlIiIIelIr- 50lIm .....
10tie

III..,..

TllE I"UJUStlIl5

1I..,.....

MJTRf~.Sllll"OIl.AJly1I110I[SORCMSSlONSHlA(
IIcI;nrit.IIIIlr

r...-racflL __ .......,

. TlIiI.

_j"

..

iI:Ir ..

........

between affilJate5. The FERC should soon


hand down Us ruling. While it is unclear
what monetary
fine (If any) will be lmposed - the judge made no reoommendalion - the more severe charge has been
deemed WlSubstanUated and having
the
case closer to resoluUon eases uncen.mnty.
These
two distractions
have
left. E1
Paso
shares at an attractive
price.
Management
invested
heavUy
In recent
years to buUd a leading presence across
the natural
ga:s-to-power
value
chain.
Despite the recent pulJback in commodJty
prices. profits should amtinue to rise. albeJt at a slower pace, as the aunpany leverage:s Its stnmg portfolio of assets. The
shakeup
tn the energy-trading
sector re
suiting from EJU"On's collapse has also allowed El Paso to capture
market
share.
(EPe's direct trading exposW"e to Enrml
nets to under $50 million.) BMed on our
profit pnBedJans,
the stock offers good 3to 5-Y'!&r appreciation
potentJal.
But conse~tlve
investors might wish to wait for
the dust to settle before taking a posftlon.
Lars L. Ba.inbrJ~
December 21. 20(11

Dividendrei'lVMhenl plan .-llbI!.

Ie) In dbllS. adjusB:I b sb:t 'Pit


(01 om br 1999 rIIIIds Ill! IIII!Iv-' WIIr.
SOfIat, 18Qg EPS .. PftIor-.

~._.n. .......
_.....
-.ice.,...,.

rIIiItir ... is pOliad 'IlilII:luI--*"a18l1Y


..,

p!inIecI .....

C-.nn

FN.IICIII Shnglb

B+
65
SO
10

SiDet'. Pricll StIIIiIlJ'


PricI Gnrrir ~
Eandngs p~

DIIl~~,
11
I

'..

,II,

""

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 6 to FJH-6
Page 5 of6

KINDER MORGAN INC NYSEKMI


3
.., '2.f],..
3

llllEUKESS

LMIt"d llZW1

SMIY

Mll'Wll7J.9D

TECl1NICAL

High:

....

92

11.9
13.8

20.2
13.5

PROJECTIONS
AIIII'ITDIII
GMl
Rttum
'ri<o

- J

J A

43121214'

'.I'

DlltClsioRS

130

t23

,111,-

",

P.re.nt
..h......

10'

'0'
134

,,,

,I"'

:II.

1 1 0 () 0 000
1
.. 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 1

IhlltJtutional

'111'1"

,.,h,1

....

"

.'.

.,,1

I.'

..

..

..

-- -...
..

"

Cu~nt

ASSlItI.

"""'Pa ......

De""'"

011""
Cum9ltJAb.

-=~
-

,
""

26,4
.... 5
SO.3
580.7

141.9

103.6
433.'
139.8
9012
320.7

96i.ii

224.6
5111.6
1019.1
11l2S.3

....

"

'20

.......,

113'"
'8.7
67.9
71.4
301.8
459.8
78.111
1109.5
219~

'i'W:6

......

1.3%
11.4%
5.1"
59%

""
7.D"

7.5'
11.51.

,,'" U,
3.3'
68%

...

....

....

"., ."
..."

....

''''''

....

"'.

U, U,

1.6"
3.31
62%

1.4'
12.1%
6.3%

,.......
.'"

12.1'

PDt

...

Pat

Est'd ... OO

8.0%
,"'%
7.1%
,,%

,.
,

......

,.

...
'"
1.6"
13%

"""

1.1_ ....
'......
h~6:d

EJd. IIcn1IaIII'iIg
'87, 60; '88, ~:
d$1.20; '84. ~i

zun.

-:1......
"-.......
_.....

....
~
'85. $1..52; '86, 57;
'89. 1(: '90, SUO:.'81.
'is. d11; 10 '01. d1Q. Ex-

""
""'"

.."
12.~
304
101

185
7~.9
990

1999
1~.49

,,.

1."

......
14.19
112,61

:Z001

2000

2002

U.

23.10
'23
128

'.00

..

1.05
f

..;;;;;
,

.......:;:

2113.7
".." 11.5%

a",

'OZ,

U....

1.... 3
n,1
16.9'

146.8
1.3'

125
41.'"

300

5.4'
d935.1

u.",

1.21

...

32%

d!6"
"".3

'002

"'"

"...

""

1665' 1197.4

''''
""

4.6""
1.'"

liO'
11%
6.9%
,,%

.... C

'*

...NIII

A'!I Mil' Pit RItio


RIIdr' PIE Rdo
AVSIMIl'I fh'd V"1IId

T.'

"--

l-

11.

,.
.n

O.
1.00

IT.IO
21.1

.,.

1M
.

""
'lO"
~:.I
...'"'"
'" '" """'"lno1
rw.
41.'"
...
21.'"
21""

1745.5

.4,4'"

RftIIIUII

'"
"".

1.10
.1II

26.1
l.n

cYAlUl:UJlfPUB

sh
"CastI Row" I*' ..
Eamk\gs pi!' It! A
,10 Di'd. OHf'd pet lh -.
J5 Cap'lSf*\-1I1*
III
"'.>0 Book YIha. pw"

U.

20
1.20
15.10

10

" TOT. RrT1.d 111Q'1

.. '

RnlnVl5~

"""""",.,"';'
1rK:an.,1I.
""I'lol1 .....

"00

...

"''' _'~'(1ooa}
longTII1IIIh11t ~

IT"

1.5.

lO"

IT"

"" S''':' ..... llnoII;


.'" "n.DS...
"" '"
l.l00

15~
10.01

'*:

Anum '" TcbI tip,


ROIm on StIr. Elltritv
RlIIiIlldmCcnEq
AI DiY'dl m tw Praf

j;'_.,,~""......
,...........1,:'"._,........

,dS397.
Nul' eamngs report due ftIId.Janllal')'.
lII()lIf. reilvesnent
plan iIYlIlilbill
~ Nul dMdend ~Il.bout
January 20.
(C) In miIima. Rdjusbld b spits.
el .bou1 January 21. ApprD~ l!r"i:!end
n5eMIl. f"lIIl
~
15III:t-.s IIIIIn guas IIIIIr'IeIlo ~ ~
"is pcaoilled 'IIlIIM --*e5 d ~ a.L

CI
VMIe 1_ ~
... AI ~
lHEI'lIIUSHRl5oflllTAE PON:SBlf OA"lIYrrIROIISOAa..SSIONSHlIlElII.TlItipulllio:a-&WidJ"~'t.
..... JIlt
talIlL1lImI.~~
.............
~.....

........

,,.~.
,~
.~

15

3100
13.01

"...

'"

earnings and the fact. that the GP receives


50% of the Partnership's gains in earnings
and cash distributions. FlnaUy. about half
of KMl's debt is at noatlng lhterest rates,
and better rate comparisons will likely
~ist
through the
second quarter.
Around
$0.12 of our estimated 2002
share-net galn results from the end of
goodwIllamortizaUon..)
Kinder Morgan is in a good position
to benefit from Increased use of natural gas. The feared gas ghat in NGPL's
large Chicago market seems to be subsfding as new ~elines
o~n to carry gas to
eastern mar ts from
.cago. and several
thousand megawatts of gas-fired genera1100 will probably be attached to NGPL
armually for the next few ~ars. The joint
venture with WilUams Brothers should
bring new ~
on stream In 2003 and
2004. And
's earnings will probably
continue to grow ri:tpldly.
These neutrally ranked shares look
adequately priced. KMJ's PIE multiple
antJdpat.es likeJy strong earnIngs growth
tlvaugh next. year, but we doubt that pace
Is sustaJnable.
Sigourney B. Romaine
Decomber 21. 2001

... ."

."

"
20

Kinder

divisions

,,.

'''' ...

4'
30

"DO drip".
1.8%. Haa abouI 2,700 tmPbr-, 30,000 lliDcthoIdln. Mr. Kinder awns 20.9% d 1ItJck; d CIIIom IInI dnctan,
V.II"'; fideM)', 8.9'1io (4101 praxy). Cham.n & CEO: Richad O.
KIJdlr. Va Clairman.: WI""
V. Morg:In: PI8s.: Midlael C.
MClgan. Inc.: Klnsas. Adcftq: 500 Odu, suite 100D, HoU51on
TX 17002. 1~
713-369-9000. InWMt k~n.cun.

'01'

-....
"'"

"
"

IUaIiESS:
K..... IlIIXgan (forrneI1y k N EMfgyI iI I diYen. ...1IId
n~Ul'i1II gas hnamiDlSOn
~n)'
and Do ~
Kin_
Margan Energ)' Plrtnerr., the 'wgesI. Pl(M!liIe IMSt8r Irrad p.n..
~
2000 aplntllg inaxnI denv9d tern: g8S bnsporta ....
nd ....
, 8'%; kx:al gas di5tribuliJn, 11"': powa.,..tiDn
Mtd dher. B.... Acqui"wd MdCon. "n. '98; KhMr MClglln, 10199.

,." ~'"

.-

2006

- -- - - - 100
- -- - -- "

.,

.
',.11

.'

.." ,., .....

,n

2005

II"

MOrg"411is seeing gains in all


... As in recent quarters, KMI's
._fpo~1 lnl'L
nri.
ownersh1t of lhe general partner of Kinder
7.0""
7.0""
".0lI
Morgan nergy Partners (KMP) contrib''CashFkM''
5 ....
4.0'"
6.0'"
i.5"
uted the big boost. ThIs division more than
1.5"
.3>" -2.5"
doubled Its profits in the third quarter.
Book Value
11.0","
B,'"
B,""
raising its share of earnings before interlllIAIllllllYAE'IBIlIES/I-aj
ClI.
est and taxes to about 44%. from Z8%, of
Mu.31 Jan.30 s~~:ia DlI:.31 You
total EBIT. Profits
at Natw-al Cas
II!l8 166 1039 1015 1136 \4W.S
Pipeltne of America (NCPL). the largest
U7
"'.2 411.1 459,5 1745.5 segment, rose about 2% on higher mar
.... 5 .. 9,1
749,1
934.3 2713.'
gins. Retail distribution earnings were up
325.3 212.7
227.0 1fD
lP25
1596 on tmproved lnigatlon demand. And
2002 :JOIl
no 3lIII 1100 the
%3'
power generation segment doubled Its
URIINGS PER SKARf. A
CdFilII
profits as a result of higher fees from
M.r.31 JIm.sa Stp.3G Dtc.31
You
power projects under construction .
,26
.31
,21
.26
1.10
... and that should continue through
,36
I.
.24
,11
.25
2002. Virtually all or NGPLs winter
.22
.23
,43
1.28
storage capacity has been sold, and 3.000
.47
.~
.49
.58
lJO
to 4.000 megawatts of gasnred power gen2lI02
.Q
140
eraUon capadty should be hooked up to
lIOIARlBlI.l
0
1'/11_
PAIl
..
ea.
Full
the line next )'ear. Power generation profIlad1 JR. S.':.30 o.c.J1 l'u' Its wlU likely rise as thC':two plants owned
.18
.18
.11
.181
,13 by a joint venture betw~n Kfuder Morgan
'''7
.187
.187 .'17
.20
.'6 and WllUarns Brothers come on stream .
I'"
.10
.20
,65 The mntribution of KMP's general partner
20
.115
,115
.115
,05
.05
.20 will probably contlnue Its rapid growth
.05
.115
115
.D5
both as a result of increasing partnership
ANNUAL IU(JU

20 ..

l2.

"-

11

....

".,

....

uoltlf.]'",
IIARI\fT CAP: 15.5 bJnion '~rge C,p)
CURRENT POSmoN

farget Price Range

50.'
42.9

II

...
... ..., ,"...
'20,
.." ,..,.
...
"
".
," , ..

lAygCst)

54.'
20.5

10.'

"

'2.'

"111

'"

15.'

'II

~
1985 19S6 19S7 19S8 1 gag 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
10.30
15.06 1!i.oe
16.38
16.71 18..41 18.19
63]1
2621
26.19 31.15 "66
21."
1.,.
1.10
1...
3.88
1Jl
1.!lS
l.n
1."
1."
1."
.
.16
.35
.12
,15
!1
122
1.43
.11
1.05
103
1.10
,66
,61
,10
.66
.
.\7
.55
.61
.52
.16
.'7
2.11
U
1.35
1.12
1.11
1.811
6.41
:U4
'.10
'-"
6.l4
652
6.14
1,06
1.42
.52 la.1J 11.44
12.62 11.74
6."
6,"
I."
1
1
61,60
"-36
'Ul
51.
11,3
13,
"ID
13.
15.5
19.7
14.0
15.1
11.7
112
3D.'
..
3.45
1.51
.91
1.33
1>1
!f1
129
.90
.99
"il
5.9\
4.04, U"
2.61,
5.5'
9.6'
1.5'
4.6'
3.81
4.'1 3.."
3."
CAPrrAl STRlJCTURE n cd 1l3Ml1
395.3
391.8 493.4 1013.9 110H 14432 2145.1 43!T!
Talal DeIIt S3816.9 mil. Dill! m 5 YI$ $1950 nil
92%
12.4'
11.4' 19.0"' 112'< 12.0' 14.B\
IT Deb!. $2701.4 mil. lT~$100IftlL
SO,3
4U
242
262
512
'".9
Indlldes $275 mil. P*red ar:urilies d' t:llpital
19.6
34.6
G3.1
21.6
n.' 70.a
3.. % 37.6' 312'<
35.6\
36..
31.5'110 39.0\
31.8\
latal i1lIn:s1 eernell: 2.31)
lS01. 01 cap"
Lusl'S, UncapitalIZed AnnUlI Rentals $47 mil.
5.0'
1.6\
5.5'
3.2'
',R
H'" 3.6'"
Pension Uabllity NDnI
d8.8
10.1
lt43.8 "2''''
d~.O
Xl' d26.8
IImDdt)I Im,rests IMS 2 m'l
(16% dDip1)
158.6
220.0
231.9
315.6 m.T
553.1 3515.0
PIlI stoQ None
188.8
211.4 402.4 "'.3
526.8
613.1 1223.8
ComInon Stock 111,629,0875115.
(34% of Clp'ij

ClI~

24.7

, ,
Ill",

.......
....
....:;:~.'010' ..... .....
.....
A

40.3
22.3

3-1 r2

OS
+30%
Insider Dec:l5ions
J F.

36.0
24.'

l!nl
1/99

l"O~l ,."
8"

OS

'l7.5
\8.0

'C.n--.a,~

211M ..

20.0
12.'

13.3

lIJ)

~~~~~stl

1-fal2 ~
3~-2!h~

.&II (l.oo.""'''d)

IfTA

11.8

Low:
LEGENDS

LDMII!dlmxn

49.40 I~ro22.3(~=: m) fI~1.21 IJII'lI 0.4%

T~CEHT
PRICE

___
.~

ciIl."'''''_,
...
smU.

C-
Stoct't.
rim St.b1111J'
Pra Growth ~
Earn,". PrMlctablVlJ
I

",

.11.

55
10
S5
1'-'

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 6 to FJH-6
Page 6 of 6

I~23.66'~m

WILLIAMS COSo NYSEWMB


3 NNwal
3 Newll17lJO
5 lClltlllll2/71m

lW[UNESS
SAfETY
lECHNlCAl
I1A

....

.."

l<2&Oil
+130%

55

- ..
....

--

J J " 5
0 1 0 0 0 2

, ., "'0'

InstitutiDnal

:::.

IQI.,

319

307~

6.

..,

1'.1
7.4

19.5

UI.8

343~

315

3206~

. ..

."

,- ..
P_n::etrt 11'

.h_

36.9
20.0

28.7
18.1

'04.7

16
23
f16

..

23

,...

23
.53

1.33
4.49

4.14

205.96 I 206.19

W74

1I1.~

1.'"
U%

45.'
3.85

13
23

16
23

J1

.10
'.85

...

'"

'KI'JSO'I

J,n ...

,1111 r JIII'II

.. ,
,,1'

.'.

'.

4.10

'.27

19.0
1.41
4.1'

,...
'35

4.7'

.13
117

CAPITAL STRUCTURE a of 113M1


Tatal Debt $11ID.! ml Due In 5 VIS $1OllO mil.
IT Debt SIl821.4mi1.
IT Interest $530 miG.
(T etal i'denl:st coverage: Z2J.)

(50410of c.PO
LUses, Unapltalml $273.11 mil.
Pension U.bIRTr None

PfdS'lod Nane

Common SCOdI 515,3152,2571/15.


(4ei' of Capll
IS of 1Dl31101
IlARKfT CAP: 5tu billion lurge C.p)
CURRfN'T

POSrn:JN

Ca~~

ReaJivables
(Avg Cst)

tn"elIlory

Oth.,

Current Aa:lds
--""..
OebtOUe

....

Cwnmlliab.
ANNUAl RATES

lI44.5
8SQ.1 944U
1M';iJ
2'049.9
157".8
3710.0
210.5

Pal
llYn.
11.0"
12.5%
15.0%
10.0710.5%

0""_

....
,.,

I/30Il1

"13.9
-4189.6
861.6
71".6
12576.7
337f.-4
2456.-4

--' ........,.

,at

'Yn.
2f.O"
12.5%
7.5"
15.0'10
12.0%

Md

"

"

"

,. .,'
"

..

"

.,

..

....

'

.39

.42
2S
2.12

.53
16
1.1f
515

....

..

...

1.07

1,1.4

.36
266

'.68

'50
10.35

16

..

......

161

13.8

4.31

2104.1

22.41
112.4
110.0
26 ..
'.21
d239.3
1539.8
1220.0

6.91

2448.1
19.1%
184.1

128'
25.51
52'

'

... OO

".

7.'U,"
53.

13.<0

US

2.12

'.50
1.64

36.0%
411.4

369.'

f64.

7892
25."
1D.1'

"".,

2814.0
'50" 3187.1
1.1%
11.0'11. 9.1%
5."
5.'"

355.'
33.41
10.1'

'3092
4376.9
3421.0

..
....
"'..
31.2"

""'.,
33.7'

gains (mces) "815. s,!: '81, (5): '92, 7t; w,


(2oW). Exd. nome. 9(mles): '85. (22_);

.5O

3.99

1.91
12.61

'.10

"".,
tin
646.
3~.4
oU.41

'2'0
d901.1

'2/: ... ("1): ... I$I . '~

..- ,,12.
23."

6366'

6>%

1D.~%

6.01

....

4257.4

5.01

7.6'10

,>%

.."

rart,y

DR) fro dlK.

,1.llllI: "'.1681),

cpl.:

'86.

'01. (12,). Exd. gns


'.13); '81, 62,!; '811,

'D1.1"'1~~"-

'~W"l

."

..,..

-Cull FIW' ,. ...


Eimings p" III A-

lB."

A'I! AIlIl'l PIE Rdo


RIII1It PIE Kilo
Arg AlIIl" rNd YMId

'U
1.10

U"
=.
_,I
..'"
,... ,.0. '"~ ,.,.
""
n."
",...
....
n.n
....
....
.'" ....
~

t1121 124" R........


31.5% 34'.'"
__

8593.1 10396.0
26.1'1
19.5'"
142.0
831.9

.IB

725'

117'

50."

21.

7.01

144.4 1327.0
10342.0
"".3
55952 5892.0
71
3.2'
J.~" 12.3\
1.11\

"'ODD

105011

"'(1.. 11

...... 811looiDl

4'1.1" .;GfMTu. ....


11.11(, NR PruI1I1ugi1l
WorIWlSc.p'lISnil)
LanST_ o.bI ($nil)

'OlD

..... "" ................... , n."


"....
u"
... ""w-..~.
""
Shr.E

7'"

"ODD

f1.l" RIUn_~C.'1
fl.",
Ulll RIIIinMi III C_ Eq
AI DiY'di to HII Prof

,UX
'UX

'21
Agrico Chllm., '87. Spvn dI
~1. Has
M'lJIlO 13.450 ~
Wits F~
.,.
7.4% d :OrmJDn;
C.pital Resealdl M:l Mlnlgl!lN!llt. 6.8"-: Dft'pn & dftdcn,
(JI01 Prw:,). ChMn8n, Child' EMaJWe OI"D!If & Pmment
Kilih Ba"'. Inc.: ~.
AdIna.: 0.0. Wilillml eem., Tua..
Oldilhtlfnl, 741n. T.l: '11-573-2OOD. W.v. WW*.-..rr.s.am.

1.3"-

has limited exposure to Enron C~ralion, which Is in danger of not ful


log
contractual
obUgBtlons because: It recently
filed for Chapter
11 bankruptcy
protectlon.)

These shares have struggled of late.


though we don't beUeve the co~ny's fundamentals are to blame,
e
stumbllne. block for the equjty af-hars
to
be slumping COJIlJllQ(Jjty prices.
e market's negative
outlook on the economy
(which was exacerbated
by the. September
11 th telTOrlst attacks)
probably
hasn't
helped the situation.. either. And for the
coming six to 12 months.
the stock is
ranked to perform only in Une with the
market
(based an recent price and eamings momentum),
But the good annual
bottom-line
Increases we expect for WUIiams over the 2004-2006 honzon suggest
that these shares wtll rebound cmlSiderably going forward. That said, patient, l:flerm acmunt.5' are advised lo consider
.
ing a position. Also, lncome-eonscious
Investors
may Bnd \he
dividend
yield. and prospects for futW"e hikes in the
payout. modestly appealing.
FTr!derick L. Harris, III December 21, 2001

curren'

"M.~

.1BnIIi;~_ .

plllliallll

tlB

BOllI!. YIIuI pII" Ib

18) ........ c_ ...... ,..._, ....,...


m"'."
Jan. Goes ell urty Mach. Div. Jm,.
SIoc:k'II Prb SlabiIIJ
dnI:
Jun.,. Sep.. OK. fC) In~
PriceGIVdI
PeratNnce
odj.........
101... _
.. " S_
.... ~
I!I

.....
...
UD
UD

r-.........
",
........

_ nIliItIe ..

04-06

.ID Div'il Ded'i pIr III.

,t"

............. fYl'I
ItWl*".~ ...,~1IIIa:hni:............1::r:=il.1bIJ"~"'_'_
.
.
lilt. AI ~
resenrIIII. Fdill ~
I~~1Ii"'1nlm
PONSlBlE OR"NYFARORSOROMlSSlDNSHH!f
...

IIC.

Cop,_ .....
.... ,...
....
m.
.U

25.f

...

way to generating exceptional results


this year. The strongest
pe.rfonner has

"D
1" 175

...,... -:...-

...........
. 0

70.7

~ 2002
13.55 RIWIIIIH PII' Ih
2W

.5O
11.1M
1316

.. ... .....
"" ." ." ".

4565'
3571.1

BUS"ESS~ n. WiIiiIms Companin hnsports"Mbn1 (lu .nd


pI1mllnnl prodlds ~ II,.. U.$., pIhea -.t Jl'DC8S$IS mIIhn1 a-s.
conduds el8"!l)' nwUIIng .nd hdI!g, ud produces ettIanal.
Bought rwnainng SO"- lrQlrell; il Ksn R_
P_ne.
1196. k
qJlnllll ~
.tD% dike i" TilllISa' EMfS)', 5.195; ~.
3t'9B; '8MwtI ~,
MJl. Sold W6ll Hebtort SIn., 1195;

I ~'4I;'99, 6; '1lD, 20:

"

.5O

15.1

3.fl

"41

33.'1
9.4'"
d17.1
130711

19.50

.74

...,.
'.'"

.. .....

... ... -
~.,..

'I. Tot. RE1lAI 11111

11.RB

1.26

17.1'"
15D.3

...

3.6"

f16
3.0.

25.1"
211.3
168.4
35.21

6>%

". ".
...

13.0

2855.1

d106.2
1604.8
1n4.0

9."

18.3

1151.1

"3"
1683.2
1518.3

1.85
.54
3.63
10.11

'''''

II Itll1. VQ LM ~
lHf PUBI..l$HlRIStlYR
tlf.., .......

24
20

'~.....
CI VALUE UNEPUB~

<OJ
,'-'
" '81... '31 26'212
.... 6
"'11

'4381

6..

.~

.....,

100
80

4'

'.,

.19

... ... ,~.


..... "

14.0

".l$fMI:87.

- -- - -- --

'YO

.51

200' 2DDS

"12

1M"
f5.""

Doe"

-,.
....
-....

2."

continued
to be the Energy MarkeUng &
Trading unJt., reflecting Increased earnings
from natural gas and power trBdI::t, activjUes, as well as additional
price-ri
manBooIi: Value
agement
seTV:Ices offered through
stJucc Ql/AImRL' R<'IEMES (IoIIj
'~J tured trBruiBCtions. lbe Energy Services
Ib13I JfHI.3D 's;;:jO"
unit has also twned in good results of late.
958.8 1n4.3 1886.8 2038A
7658.' One of the top segments
In this area has
l... 945.3 1986.3 '21~7 2<48J
8593.1
been ExplIJrnUon & Production,
which has
039ll.0
~~
1523.3 153'-' 3282.
benefited considerably
from the recent ac2801 tiG00 282ll.6 28fO. J/lill
m/l
qufsjUon of Barrett
Resources, an oU and
3Iao 3lao 3280
280'
natural gas E&P company with major apEAIUMGS
PER
$HARE
ACa.
''''I
erations in the Rocky Mountain
territory.
Oftd" .ar.31 Jun.30 Sep.31 Dee.3t Y., Another good performer within the Energy
26
.19
.17
.12
Services unit has been Petroleum Services.
.12
.f2
.03
.12
.39 being helped
by h~r
refining
and
:1I
.53
:1I
.~
1.64
marketl~
rev~nues.
a negative note,
2801
.18
.SO
.41
ZU the
Cas
ipellne unit has not performed
,ao, .78 ,
,
.n 17'
up to par lately,
reflecting the effect
QUARTERLY DM:lEHDS PAIlColFull
of a reductJon 0 rate refund UabiJities in
lIat.31 Jun.30 ~1'p.30 OK.!t Ya'
2000 fOll~
the s~l tlement of prior rate
, .. 7
.f3
.13
.15
.54 proceedings.
.1'
things considered. we be
fEI
.15
.15
.15
.60
.'5
lieve that consolidated
earnings will surge
,1ft
.15
.f5
.15
.15
.60
I/lIlD
.15
.15
.60 between 4!1% and 50% in 2001. (Of note,
.15
.'5
management
contends
that the company
2801
.f5
.15
.18
.2D
IA) P........
~N .... , ,,", dl ""'...'93, 36<: 115... 73: .... 41, ~7. "I: ....
I
Re~l.HtS"
"CoshFlow"
EaminlP

T....... Pric_ Range

72.5

'Ill

~
~72.2 168ll3.5 13498.3 The WilliaJns Companiel 15well on its

0Ihe<

arclWplJllr.,)

...
mn
......

""
2526.' , ~
3580.5
''''''2
631.5

46.'

'yo.

16
23
1.02

.,

31.1

1.78

'.53
4.S"

61.

49.8
29.5

4.'

"'-'21.4

61.8

5:3.8
28.0

"

1985 1986 1987 19as 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199. 1996 19
1S14
9.01
7.82
7.33
6.97
7.14
1.<0
lIB 6.52 9.11 1121 13.77
I."
,<0
1.06
.56
.71
.76
.91
1.19
'.63
H'
'07
I." 1.08

......

flRAm.0 52 IIIl'D
l'I.D 3.4%

RWlM

'Ih

I--'

.111')"

Dedsion.

ala

'06

2se~

023110000
000000'10

..,.

r ... rD." p

ftkIIfl'S

Decisions
J f A

000

.........n" Q=~

PROJ'",!"NS
Ann1'atII

p,;"

Insider

".5

6.'

91)
Will: IU

Relltiwt Pllr;t SD .. gf1


""'-1 spI 11193
l_2~
1l19li
2-4or-,!ij:II.
1V97

1.DO (l.DD-1I1Qd,1

, ......

Low

6.5
'~I
3.9
4.'

H~h'l

Low:

UGEND&

97(1"'9

,*,-.arrIfIIies

"~

I~

..

115
100

..

I.

: II:

II'.

Docket No PO
Workpaper # 7 t~ FJ~~
Page 1 of 7

....

'"

a::
w

In

:E
w
o
w


24 BRI-BUS

8rIJtoI.MY'fI

EarnIngs

.... ".... a. ...In .,..

IPrlGrY_DIII
:t ~J1 ,.
Od"
.
'. __
HalMa,,

Brill..,

e....

BIDClIl

A
NR

Squibb

AlrwaYI

ADS

. Bnllst! Amer TobBa:O ADS NR

;~rtlIl~::.'ver'ADS
MI8tI

NR

Bdelill 011ADS NR

eo",,.'

NR
NR

8I'oadalm
BroadVlmton Inc
BroBdwlng Inc:

t: Bfoolde

Communlc Sya NR
Brookline B.ncoFD
NR
f:Srookl.Automaaon
C

t.

Brooldrovt lnc
BrDWI't & Bl'Clwn
Brown-Fonnln'B'
Brown 81'101

A ..

B-

Bl\lklr OlbleB
NR
Brunlwlck Oorp
BrWr EnginwI MIIfriI/I 9
Bryn Mlwr Bri
AeSB BancoI'D
NR
BSOUARE Corp
NR
BT Group pic ADR
NR
8TU InMrNfIonlll'
0BUCA Inc
NR
8udl:'N PIn,. LP ..
NR

*Bock~
TechnoIogIlIl
,Bucldllnc
Budgil GrtQJ'A'

"'=

Bull

NY AO~1dn

MlteMII

"'BunotUd

tBurllng'lon

NR

!IIo1_.~AOS

0.59

Dc'

M'
Dc'

.. ....... .......
... ,...... .......
....... .......

'

'"

Jo Q2
Oc' 04
Dc' .
Dc'

a"

Oc' Of
Dc

O'

.s. a,
Dc

04
DC' 04

~ ~
Dco<
Dc 0<
Dc 0<
Dc'
Dc'

0.60

0.57 23

...
,......
...
...

.....

110.04

PwI2.48

dO.12

dO.11 dO.13 20

ri:d3.13

110.10

0.05

0.08

0.19

dO.a
dO.23
dO.21 dO.17
0.2t
0.21

0:2,

dl].24

. 0.20

.2

....... ...,

110.12 dCI.(18 dO,UI . 2


. 0:t4
0.61

Q2 dO.02
Q4
0.88

0.14

0.64

'

.........

~:~~.8
'0.
7 4

NIl dO.03

..,

Dc

....... .......

....

NR

.~ 04 o:a1'

0.22

'0:1'8

0.48

0.42

B.

Dc
My~'

Q4

0.48

0.70

0.84

... ..... ,. ....... .......

Sp
Del' Q4
DcQ4
Dc 0<
Dcu 04

:'.~.'

.......

....... ....... ...

~':
O.

~::0,84.0.
9 d03! .as
0," ... 03
0.20 0.17 '13

0,01
.'P

.. ....

"'

....

. ...... .
GI

....

2.41 . 2 . 2
2.39 2].
1.99t 2-.27. f.ro Z
1'IBS
....
1.78
1.81
5.
0.231dO.05
Z
0.'4'
0.93 dO.37 3

.51

dO.33 dO.31
110.451 cIJ.42
dO.7~ dlH9
0.27. D.33
O.7H '_0.71

0.07. 0.07
O.~
1.00
'1111.08
YO.S8 ,dO.50~ d).50
v-t.85 : 2.05 "'.2.05"
2.05
..0.22
Z."
0.07
. YO.02 , ".06.
.... 93
O.IM.
2.05'
YO.7" dO.274 .dO.22
wO.54 O:C81
.v-3,55 Z.34 2.4

...
....... ...

Dc 04
De ,04

.......

'001

11rwl: Esl1l1'1ltt, (ntw).,

.....

0.02

Jan

...

M.80

Guide

dO.3B

21

CIO.47. 17
dO.S7. 19
0.24.23
.0.71

!'PdU5 dO.SO,. dO.10 dll.79


VdO.26 dO.S3t. dO.50 dO.S15
0.82 . 0.84
YO.51!!
0.79
v-.13."0 3.:J4 J."2
'.30
1.82'
'12.04
1.112 Ul2

'0:25
0.01 -8
0.01 110.06 0
110.48 dO.4& dO."S . 2:
...~.. .......

0.02
"'.03

0.25

..

dO.34

dO.06 dO.06 110_06

J"

\IIdO.52
Yd1.8Z
'IPO.Ol

1e:
dO.'"
"0.04 24'
0.19 ... 0.19
Z

dO.29

.......
... ....... .......

a.

.... 32
C.BS
,,1.45

~.IJ"

Dc "04
Mr10., ...

Dc'

\12.36

.......

NR

Cott FM:tory B+
Burtngton InduItt1..
D
::':_
.... F.NR
Ro_
IIBulh Indul erA'

8 .

.-:=,
...

. NlZC Qull1Ir
s--. &tlmltl. '!Stir) , of
"-,
Elt..

D.08
0.91
dO.50
2.0S'
. 2.02

0
7,
Z
1

. 0.0l!I 3'
0.32. 4
. dO.32 . , 2

O::~.

0.47
II
'. 2.30' 4
dO.02
'.~
v-.o.1.23 0.09. 0,15
1.53 . 5.
'1P01.69
1.60
'.57
tdttlU'J
cQ.1o. cQ.D5 d2.1,s.
v-1.48 0.86. D,BB D.B8 f
"I,!54 1.52.:, 1..53 . 1.50 ....

pvO.28
f.72
1.54
f.82t
f,BOt '.80
0'11.62
'.80
~t.73
etQ.104 cIO.10. d).10
.
2,10
1.98'
.. ".~
2.07
'13.1 . 3.01 33~ 2.87

......

ttUO

,.

27
0 ....1 -.- 3
0.87 .' 0,115' 15

o.~.:0,47

5;-Yr Pro)
fPS

...

2.59
2.70
l.30 27
dfI.c,f~dS 70 d8.n
Z
2.00
1.83
5
'.93
0.19 . 2
0.50
0.60
1
0.92' 0.92 . 0.92

......

dO.12~ 0.15 dO.3t


0.03 dO.2-7
dO.611~dOZO -d1.15
.0.53t 0.64
0.36
'0.85
0.66 . O.Bot
0.57
0.93
OZ.
dO.73' dO.57 dO.7B
1.02
.
0,92
0.98
3.74
37. 3.60
2.00t '2.00
'.00
0.12. 0.14
0.09
1.001 1.40
0.80
0.25
0.2~
0.20
2.18
2.18
2.T8
.2.20
2.20
'.20
0.03

1.64

.......

2.3....
0.17~
0.88t
0.77

1.88

t.70
dCl.25
1.20
1.40
US

0
'0
10
10
7

"
0
"
, "
1
.."..
Z
Z
O

5
Z
1

....... ...........
...
2.45 '2.15
0
2.75 clO.37 28
0.75 . 0.80
3
0,115 0.72 15

.____

_._

.._ .._.__ .

._..

.. ~_. __

_. __ ~__

._.

._

.._.

NO,
'.63

2,050
."

e1.5

"10.33

3B2
14Z
210

.18.57
6.23

N.,

1.924
13.50
1,665 ~ 15.S9

(1ISIlr)

3.66
0.75

.,.

32

78.6
3.812

.564
"9.7

Z07

2.31
6.51
13.35:
11.79
16.41

12.93
,:1.10:

13
12

'0
10

8',182
2,429
\,404
9,205
3147

."

3'P

2.62
2.12
0.70

3.01

9.52
32.80
15.20
311.7.5

5:96
(:9.12

60.90
3;38
3.95
2.1J

.......

"4,70
1'8.53
19.10
11.60
28.30
25'.40

0.73
.og
N'D
12.23
14.26
14.4f1

0.80
20,10

.., ....
2.71
2.05
15.85
2.f17
1.80
2.26
.0.60
'.51

18.38

IUS

to.85
3.1f1

1.59

3.!iO

..

.f:C-COR.TlI!II Carp

B-

CSD T8chnologlss
tCable Oeslgn'Tecl1l1Olo9,es

A
NA

......

01

"".

Cable 6 WirtlllsS
Cablevlsiol'lSys'A'

1/2'

d
d
d

....
'127

...

21

tCabol

1123

11,.

.f:CACllnn
Cadbury

""

Cadence

NR

D~I C
So' C
Do

& Gas A'

N,,!

.p_.-~

8
N~

Inc.

Oe

B~
Scl'1waopas ADS HR
Deslon Svs
B-

Do
J'

Commerce
. Calif Pizza ,I(i!ctlen
CallI Waler Svc Oro
Calli Amplifier

NA
NR
B~.
C

1/23

Calif Micro D1Mces

M.

1/18

Caliper

NR

D,
D,
D,
De'l
S,

12

'/30

",.

Calico

,,,.

d'

)n2

30
15

Technologies

tC::,&M Comme'co

""3

Cllmbrex

" .........

carn~

.12/21

1123
1(18

Fb

Corp
A
Annlod'r TICIf ADS NR

Cambrldge'Hearl
.Cameo FinancIal

NR

Cllminus Corp

NR

B+
A
NR

Stock Splll"& DIvidends

'No adi lor stk dStr,Cabot

Dc"

NR
C

Solutions

SOIJP
Camlel< lid

""5

D,
M,
D,

B-

*" Campbell

. ZI'l3

Do'
0,

J+

Go/I
Canon Petroleum
CalpIne Corp'

Cailiwav

Dc"

S,

",DiO""
D,
Jl'O

Dc

' 3-Ior-2:
Micoeleelro

:E
o

~
;I<'
'OC
"0
'On

~,..

"tJ :at!
.. -"2
IQ
- 0
.. o
",,,"'ll

.-

A,
In'
(
Do'
Dc'o (

C
BNR
NA
B-

'd

19.35
18.70
9
0.03'
d
14
2'-31
35.14
11
12.00 27
33.&0' 51

..

Cadiz II'lC
tCadmus Communicallon
. C.l Dive Inti
CalderA' Inti
Calcon Cartlon

"'Z
1/25
1/30

Tr
Mlcroe1(1clrorlleo;

Cabol Oil
tCachllF10w

NA
C

CabollndUSlnal

t3 3108
0.84
d .......
9.95 1

1Ul50

ADS

tCabot Corp

d
d .211J
3. 1/23
18 .......

'9.74
20.00

No atllior elk dstr,'.Q9.


'.2lor-1:99,'0Q:3lor2,'01

13 3-lor-1;'98.

NR
NR

......
..

3.04

ZO.

~:~83
0.14

43.99

1:BWAY Corp
awc FInancial

' '.5&
36."12"

12

d301
dO.58
0.33
0.30

"20

3.75 B2 .1130
38.30 . 41. ........

7.21

"

73.36 .

Hlml of 'nuo

D."

22
15

1.39

130
732
30'

.......

df.07

Com .
Stc.ek
R.1I1l1 Fiscor

PIE

..

29

2,.438

2.42
53.76
055 . 29.30
1.71 18.42
'4.05.

20111 nlpl

N.,
. 4.34

13

PTI~

Prior Vo.r Dala


.t: Nelt V.. r Oall

.ff'S

2.43

83.5
29,008
99.5

11

'0'
"0. NDv'Ol

ISlSl'lrl

1,098

,.

3D
10

Mcnitt

e.. "

".19
45.89
Neg
10.55
3.21.

.,., .,

dO.OJ . J

Z.63 1.05
0.03 dO.HI
o.m 0.75 0.85
Z~O 2.44
2.6
0.901 1.25 0.46

1.17 '1.84
~Ill 0.25
1.20
1.20
.1.551 1.70

21
17
19
11

."

T,riIl1b'"
Book.

16.216
U,393
0 37,013
'0 . 3.275
3.580
12

0.811
3f
NIl
Stock BpIItI, DMdtndI
12-IOT1,'97;99. I No ~ 101'elk dstr.'98,.ADR ~ 1,om pnor.1o.315-94, ~ 210r-1:'99,'!Xl . 3-10r-1:99,'OO, '2lor-1,'97.
2-'DI-t:99.'00fIWlce). 7 3-101-2,'98:2-101'-1,'00:01, 2-for-1 :98, I 3-for-2,'97. la No Bdllor 6111:ds\r,mm02 pIc. II 2lor1,'97:3-lor-2,'98.
12 ~-ror-5:97.

.._.

AnnUlI

S'NtI E.nm.!lII' ISlSIIrI , at Qratrth FlIY'.


Lo
bb. RI.'" f' UII.) .

0.0"
1.7.
dO.On

....

Standard & Poor's


zooz

L..

... J:w

......
g,~

(
(


44 EMl:I-ENV

-.

NI/Ilt olluu,

EndlSl

Sarvlce'

....
NR

Enerav Partners

NA
NR
SYlI

Sol

Enlegrte Ino
Enllresvs
N.twOr);1

all ADS
1M

r,

Ire
Communlc'A'

Inc .

Ire

En1Jusllnc
Envlronmentsl

Stock Sf'lIti
10

........

Elemente
DIYkI.ndl

02

'"

O.

'"
Q4

04
01

Dc'

'lk
lk

J,'
0,

ad'

01
.04
0'
".

04
04

NR

'Oc,

"lk

NA

0<
Dc'
Dc '04

Enlercorn Cornmunicallonl'A'
EnlflroYCorp

Enlrapln

Sp"'

NR 'u

ENSCOff\IJ

Enlravlslon
EnlreMld

Dc'
Dc'
lk
lk

NR oS,

EMBI"
S.A. ADS
'Engagil Ino
Enpalhard Corp

Enll'ildo

lk'O<

NR~

EnefVY E""I

Enllrprl!Ml P~:-rI
EnllrfalnrnfrTt

NR

Energen Corp
Energt!l. PlC AOS .
:tEnerglzer
Holdings.

nll'l'l1le

Dc. O.

NA
NR Dc
NR Dc'

COlD

Enllgtrlen S~11I
Enron Corp

NR

Ifd. NR

Endocardial SoMlonl
EHOOclLra rnc

Engineered Support
ENI S.D.A. ADS

J.'
S,

NR

Endo PhllTll8Clllcl/t

ONR

SA ADS

Endwlve

2000
2001' .
Nn!:Ou.rIIIr
'
",8tr!!1 Eltlm (SISti! , bf . Actl.illl' 81N11 E.llm .... fllShr)
EPS' ... ."
O- N",, L,.,.. E.t1.

.' Stoc:lI
R.nll R"O

*Emulill Corp'
En Po'rrtte Tlch
Enbrldgl En,IVY P1nra LP.
Encompass
En,,,,..
_

EarnIngs Guide

"""' ..

VI. Dill
..It.~y',r Dill
Prior

lk
lk
lk
NR 0,
NR
lk
C'
lk'
NR,
lk

NR

dO.01
0,17

.......

.......

.......

0.04
dO.ll111 dO.12
dO.OO dO.05
dO.24 dO.24

0.01
dO.15

....

0.38

.......

0,
lk

M,

..52

.......

.......

dO.oa

..
3

0.43
IU7
....

,,-

0.36
0.17

......

04
0.17
04' .0.13
04

"-

.......
0.60
......

0.50

'NII

.......

:';'R"

._28

0.11
0.21

(1.13

'0.14
"0.10

.......

.......

0."
......

0.55
:......

..

.......
....... .......
dO.14 dO.13 dO.15
dO.81 dO.63
0'
.......
.......
O~ .dO.o.t dO.OJ >.08

..,...

.......

' 2~IDrt'99(tw\c:e):OO.
Ntwrks:Ol.

"

1.24

cKl.Oa, 110.06 dO_09

.,
3

.... 27

1.93'" 2.10
dO.315 dO.04
1.18
1.05'
2.13 . 2.35
0.501- 0:55

1.70
dl.01
0.94
2.00
0.43

0.551- 1.00
.......
1.71 ,1.75
1.i'8
1.78
8.62t 7:004
dO.15 dO.IS
'1.551- . 1.8-5
1.3tl1 '1.49
......
O,:i!9 . 33
:0.44i
OAB
'3.16
3.25
2.901- 2.90
2.61+ 2.77
11.55
1.65

0.29

"'_95
vpd2.61

.... ,..
.......
It
5

,.
<.
...

'2:

".

,,3
3
;7

".

'11.31.
'11.043
'17.22
Vd1.111
'11.12
...o.B1
00."
1Id3.40
v1.004
'12.97

......

"_38

,,1.63

'1d:l.65
Ppd1.34

.......

...dO.57
l\:JUA
vdO,e8

d2.96 d2.oo
130.56 eIl.56
dl.'9I' dl.7~
dO.53 dO~83
dO.58 dO.66

0'.14 .

'"

Strlfil i.llrn,tli
Eat .
M"n. High

,.

1.138
.. 1.~8
5.88
dJ.15
"1.10
:1'.34'
.......
0.22
0_...
3.10
2.90.'
,2.25
~1.5S

,
2

. ;11:7
3
'5.

7
9
3
10

,,

12

1
13
27
11

lS
1
11'
1

\'d:2.96
1
. dO,57
3
'dUXJ '3
1.83
1
1l0.71 10
0.14 0.14

2 3-lor2.'97,'98. ~ 4for1 :.g.7. 42lort:9ll:

,.

.O.52J
0.20

nm

0.56
0.20
2.20

S-~i!srol _nnUll

("!!!tl. .,
low

01 Growth RtYI.
Ettl. R" .. " (I Mil.)

0.'1&

12

. 20
LBO
0.14
0.60

1
7
3
1

0211'" 0,40
0.6111 0.60
l.47
154
1.39
.0.27
0.31
0.17
dO.17t dO.15 dO.19
0.331 0.36
0.27
dO.d7 <10.47 dO.79

7
3

2.02
2.10
111).271- 0.9
1.04
2.22
2.50
0181- 0.26

1.86
dO.53
1.04
1 05
0.10

3
5
1
7
3

.24

9
1
9

,....

0.88~

1.22

\ . 511.0~
dO.O.'
0.321.0.52'
.3.
2.6012~&l
,1.55'
dO 55J'
112.99-

......
dO.03 .

......

.~.

Nft
Tlnglbl .

f$lShrl C;(SlShrj

"...- 24'
"',
"
". '0'

"18:7'4

30

'.50
3.14

Z5

"
13
7
15
15
50'

3.'
.,099

14.777
197
14.6
6.61

'"
76'
701
1.694
2,960
'03
4,5 5
'

"NlJg

15.45
2.90

----

He"
. 0.131'

1:1Ii
3.79
13.31
'. 1.38
5.10
". 5:59

"

'.52

cIO.24
.

0.05

EPS
:001

J~8j

:ss

Rapt

pn: '. 0.11


3
33
d
17

"

1/26

23.18
'2
4.B3
d
10
18.50
18.21
9
6:H.12

112'

,,-

2/1.
3107

1130
1/31

0/0,

13.50
Z5
027
27.95' '16 '210'
4245 24 12/11
9 .,
59.20

...

, "
, .
"

'"

5/s-rof-l,'oa. 82'1orl :99. 12-1or1:oo . ~![)I"2:985for",01.

'2-for-1.'97,

"

COl"!.

Sloek

fI,""

HI"" of l .. ue .
'tENZON
Inc
EOG Resources

1/31

..

V r eala
V.ar 0111

t. Enzo

J/O'
3/15

, "
,

"

Prior
:I H.xl

1119

1'3
d
d'
d
'd

".

2.72

Nnl

f""
Noy'01

2.05
4.'9 . '2.05
1.46
1.83
11.50
1.12
15.77,
9.l1li9
'.90
16.47'
1.33

'"

No ad for IIlk dslr 01 Rive~one

-------

C.. h
fN

Month'
End,

.0,0' .
1.95
5.53
2.22
1.75
. 5.5.3
0.43
2.28
2.03
2.61
'61
47.9
6.74
5.57
23.M
8.12
5
5
0,06,
1.80
O.Ol.
d
.......
2.15 . 0.26"'
100,;r89
9 ....6.
0.40 13
2"
010'
1.91 0.19 26
34
53' ., 10:51" . 1.S2 20.12 "15' "~J30
423 .
9.95" :.:;'
343
002 <10.12
19
0.2B 1. '.' 23 .. 1 071
4,02
d2 B8
9.91 '3.
2/13
0.45
414.23 .....
1.98
2/2.
0.041
23
".
N ..
i.83
315,90 . 12' 2/01
31.83
.......
9
10.016
35. 3.35 15
2,7.43
'0'
....
2.aO .2.60
1
11.12
le.So11
'9.99.
2.90 . 245
11
3.073
3.17
48.00 1.
1/31
2(16
'17.47
'
1.B5
..
55.4
17.80
11
'.65
1
4.54
0.53'
00.71
..... ..d .......
..
'd
Neg'
.\.... :. .12.00
2107
dO.Sl dO.59
'54
2.1.08 . d2.97
10.81
d: 3I:l0
3.ti7
rJ2.77
d320
....
Nil '0.19
......
...
cIO.58 _2.08
d
'M9
dO 54
d '1122
0.05 dO.15
2.05
3.85 '21 2'08
......
150:8
00.76

dO" dO" dO.42


1.82
2.13
6.231-

Standard & Poor's

2002

#or"

0.35 "19
0.111
7
.l.'2
dO.l0
3
. 0.55
2

Pv2.18
w1O.22
'1PdO.42
'I[]2.07

;.,

0.49
0.47

1.2151- .1.29

""'

dO.54
dO.44
111.03

.......

.......

"'_52

..'"

0.37
0.40
'0.81 . 0.111
1.281 1<75
dO.O,", dl102
0.76
0.86

do.53t dO.61
1fdO.97 dO.41t dO:39
DVd1.24 dl.02
d'1.02

0.35
0.49
. 58
dO.OB

oo_TI

.. .......

.......

110.25

VdO.31
Vd3.02
vtl.78

'11.25
vdU7

0 ....

....... .......
0.45
0.47

.
0.25
dO.Oll
0.13

17

'.7
3
_2

0.55
0.62
O.lM 0.83
dO.06 dO.03

"" '"

NR
NA
NA

........

,,-

fb"

NR"

._09

0.09
.......
0.33
dO.OS
0.15

Bloche'"

FI".

O-

J"

J.
0'
D'

E.ON AG ADS

B'
NR

EOn

NR

Eplcor SOftwlll11l

'"

Eplmmune

Dc'

Energy Pe"neTs l.p.


Inc

E.plohany tnc
EPIO Systsms
EPIX Msdlcal
ePluslnc
EpClctl Blosdsl'lces
sProsencslne
Eprlse Gorp
EOUANT N.V, ADS'
EQuila.1nc
EQulnl. l"e
:f.EQUllsbfS Bank
EQultabll Resources
EQlJlty Marif(llll'l" .
EQuily,O!Iice

0,'

.Dc!

NR

0"
0,

Dc'
0'

'"',

0,
0'
0'

N"

Sp'

DC
0'

NR

PTOOertlss

EQuIty 011
'EQully Resldenlial

0'

NR
NR
NA
NR
NR
BNA
NR

Tr NR

BProp Tr NR

eResea:~~~~~nology
Inc NR
Ericsson lM Tel'8'ADS
NR
EriIllndemnity

NA
B-

'A'

:tESCa
TachnoJogJ9$
ESlInjay E.plortltlon
sSofllnc
.
;~ied
Inc'A'
Ellperion Thenipeulici
ElIplrtto Smlo Flnl ADS
ESPS Inc
ESS TlIchnolo~
E't;terllne T echnologiss
;t.Bhan.

Allen,Jntartor,.

0'
0'
0,
0'
0'
0,

S<

0,

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

0'
Do
Do
0,

.-
0

B+

'"'

0
J'

Sloc:k Spill' II DIVidend,


~ Adi I
No ad; lor stir mlr Certegy 1l'1c:Ol

._--------------------_._-~-~.~----~

;.

'00

"0

'0",

~~
.,
....
2
"tl"~

10 ~ 0
to 0 .
w"T1"tl
0(,.,0

.. :I:w

.... b>.b.

66 JAB-K2
. PrIor V"r 0.11
t Net! '1'.., D!l1I
N,,,,,"ortuue

R.nll

.1:Jabll Cln:ull
J.ck In ttle Box

:l:Jlck.onvtlll Bancorp
,*JlIcobl Engr Group
JAKKS P";'i'lt:

JII'nIl H,rdIelnd N.V. ADS


JIPIn Airline, Co Lid ADR
Jlldlnl Malhlson H1d1 ADS
Jardine Strategtc Hldgl
JDA 'Soflwira Groue'

John Nuveen 'A'


*Jotln,on Contror.
Johnson Electric H1dgs ADS
JOhn~1
Johnson
.
Jone"
.1111 Groun
Jones Lang LaSs"e
JOIJmll Regliller
Joy QIobaI
J.P:Morgan ChaM &. Co
Glober Communications

.2

Juniper N.twor1ls
Jupiter Media Metrix
Kmert
K Swls, Inc' A'
K-Tron IIlII
1<2 rnc

fatlnultn ("hi') , or
L_ f.lI.
.... n "HlgIl

StrMt

FIlial

al

Au'

NA
NA

S, 0<
S, .

B+
NA
NR
NR
NR

s, a,

..
Dc'

M,

eo
eo
eo'

NA'
NA
C
J"

*JDS'Unlphsll
Corp
A+
Je"ersonPllot
JI"mon Smurill GIp ADS NR
*Jonny Craig'
C
Jilin Chemical tnd ADS
NA
*JLG Indul
JMAR Technologies
JNI Corp
Jo-Ann Storn'A'
John Hancoc:k Fln'l Svcs

Nut QuR'lI'

Com.
Bloe~

a.

02

~ a,

C
NA

Dc
Dc
Je

NA

A
A+
NR

A+
B+
NA
NA
NR
B+
NR

NA
NA

B+
B
BB+

a.
a.
eo a.

Dcl

04

s,' a.

M'

eo'

0.11
0.48

.......

......

......

D."
0.40

0.89
0."3

0.87
0.35

0.12

0.14

"'.01
0.79

.0.01
0.81

D."

0."

""

Dc'~ Q4

Dc
Dc

.8

Q4
0<

...

....

0.03'

....

.......
0.70
0.64

0.60

D.82
1.22

0.58
0.99

..DO

.....

.......
0.43
0.23
1.011
0.25

......

0.37
020
1.08
0.21

.......

.......
D.82 0.39
....... .......

0.10
c~J.38
D."
0.40
0.01

0.11
0.07
dO.38 cIO.3B
C.e6 . 0.28
0.42
D."
0.01
0.01

.......
0.50

.......

.......

.......

....

vO.3S

o."
0.B91
2.10
'3.78
1."
0.18
0.45
0.38t
0086
0.576

O.BO

.......

"'.

of
E.II.

"

0.55 26

.......

2.10
3.98
1.87

2.10
3.89
1.61

0.18
0.45
0.41
0.08
0.59

51'

0.45
0.35
0.08
0.58

,...

,,
,
,,
,
2

Yd51.40 dO.056
Nil dO.22 33
3.00 12
'13.28
3.07
Pv2.10
1.406 1.40
1.40
0.22' '0.22
PvdO.94
0.22
1.16
vtI3.00
1.16
1.16

...

.'

vO.80 0.876 1.25


\'11).06 O.OU
0.20
YO.53 0.02t 0.04
vcrO.75 ciJ.37t 1Il.37
oi2.51
2.80
2.62

.,

18

v:t.2.09
'if'S.11
v040,
'11.70
'12.48
'tdl.72
'13.72

...
,

23
14

"',
"'PUS

20

w2.44

2.28
2.30
5.08- 5.90
0.43 '0.43
1.90
1.92
2.281 "30
1.31
1.31
0,81
0.83
0.38
1.11
2.031 2.15
d1.98 d1.96

0.70
"'.19.
2
dO0'
dO.37 . 1
2.56
2.24'
4.74
0.43
1.B7
2.20
1.31'
0.80
dO.10
1.93
clI.98

"

5
17
1
26
15
J

20

",

vPO.53
0.53
0.55
051
Yd2.83 d1 304 d1.34 d1.34
'o'cIO.48 0.176 0:30 dO 03 . 19
2.21
2.19
v1.98
2.23
1
0.60
Y2.25 0.601 0.60
vO.92: 0.55 0.55 . 0.55

28

18

.......

srocll Spllta 81Dividend ... , 2'or1 :99,'00. Z.3for2,'99, '3lor-2,'98.


n 2-lor-1,'98:3-lor.2,'00. ,2 Hor-4 REVERSe:Ol. '33-lor-1:00:2lor-1:00.

_n .. __ ..

PvO.59
\12.55
M.oe
vP3.22
'11.41
vO.55
vO.21
'11.68

.......

0.70
0.70

a.

Dc '04
Je 0<

celt

..
7

dO.03 28
0.78' tt

0.70
O.lle

0.39
D.22
()t . 1.08'
0.23

Oc
...
Dc" O.
Dc'~

.......

0.11

0.10
0.04
0.07
dO.03 dO.03 dO.03

0<
Dc'O 04

Dc

"...

.......

...

B+
B-

0.13
0.49

EPS

....... .......
....... ....... .......
...
.......
... ....... ...... ....... ...
...

a.
a,
eo' a.

Dc
Je
Dc

0.12
0.49

.,,.""

Strtet 1:11111'1'" (W"'r!

A~

.._--

...

5:-"" Prol

""

EPS Ann".. T.nglbl.


Slrnt Elllm.... !SlShr) "01 Growth" R.VI.
8001!"
MI.n
Lo.
HI;".
Mil.) ." (SlShr)
1.11
2.1SI

~ . R,.'" 'I

1.50
2.20

0.65
2.18

....
".35
1.92

4.55
2.05

".19
1.78

D.3O 0.30
0.30
dO.37. dO.37 dO.37
0.50
0.52
0.47
0.45
0.45~ 0.45
0.66~ 0.71
0.62
0.09~
3.34
'1.786

17 . 0.03
3.25
3.40
2.35
1.J0

......

', ..

I.

30

15
17

4,331
1.633
24.1
3,957
252

, ,
,
"
, , ,
,, "
,, 2~
1
1

7.'

15,080
10.362
5,960
172

24
11

27
11

3,233
3,239
4.565

..

1616

1.426 2.00
1.10
dO.l06 dO.10 dO.10
clO.07' . 0.10 dO.22
0.40t 0.40
0.40
2.64
2.75 13
2.90
2.55
5.576
0.44

'"
2491

1.53
0.91
0.95
3.051

.. ....
0.47~
0.39'
2.36
0.756
0.65

2lorl ,'97:97,'99(lWice):OO. 53-101'-2:98:01.


112!or-1,'99.

- .,-

.,..

Standard & Poor's

Earnings Guide

..

2.53
5.57
0.44
2.13
220
1.50
0.85
0.70
2.80

18

1.20

0.30

30

83lor2,'01.

'-"=-"-'

96'.
19.6

'53

1,483
7598

"

, ""
".
"
., 926
"
."
'"
... "
",
, "
07'

2.60
5.57
0.44
2.27
2.60
1.58
0.96
12D
3.'0

0.90 dlJ.32
2.40
2.25
0.75
0.75
0.155 0.85

1D

358
18,427
79D
29,139
.1.43

.28

16

1D

60,065
13.9

18

...

77.8
37.028
'22
84.9

7.19
6.38
19.02
9.66
7.75

Monlh

ell"
F1_
1.30
3.99
3.4'
1.86

4.59
0.B9
5.8.1
15.18
16.52
4.54
'.55
1.27
5.32

N'"
Ne,
Ne,

......
16.69

0.25
1.47
Nil
O.BO
1.37
2.32
10.74

e12.57
1.63

22
2.62

g ...

10.08
44.50
21.90
3.05

38 12/20

...

lD

,,,,

"

1/22
'/C17

"
""

0.52
1.10
2.10
3.'5
1.71

2lor1 ,'97. '4-lor 1:00 . 2-lor-1 ,'01.

'0

......

.......

30 _ 1123

,. ,,,.
15

21"

21"

7.eo

"7

9:55

11

""
""

'"

9.29
680 .
39.34
15
49.50' 22
79.52
15
58.25
31.22.

.......

...
... .......

""
",a

......

2.22
3.37

14

1.87
0.39
12.20
12.1'
'.00

26.30
25.88
20.26
66,95
24.99
14.00
5.22

d46.32

EPS
2001 ... pt
PIE Do.

'"~

No,'01

(lIShr)

0.59
2.52
5.26
13.98
5.81
2.78
20.76
20.83
'.DB
18.30

E,'

31
14

15.95
19.00
15.50_ 41
37.72
19
3.95

"

"

24.58 '46
1.58
8.10
32.14
15
10.35 17
8.35 15

2109

"'9

2102
2107
210'
21"
"'7

2109

" ""

Zlar-1 :98.
.

"'D
2115

"'"

Prior 'f'ur 0"1

Com.

t NI'II 'I' r Dill


NIl'll'

Stock
Rink

or lilu

K.V Pharmeceutical erB' B


Kadal'll Int.

Kaiser Alumil1U'n
C
Kamen Corp'A'
B
Kane Software
NR
Kaneb Pipe lInll Ptnrs L.P. NR
Kansas City Ufe '1'15
A.Kansas City So. If'ld
B
Klty Indus
8Ka'idon Corp
A
KB HOME'

e-l-

KBK Capital
KCS Energy Lnc
KellnllLnc
Keith Compllnies

NR
B
NR

;f:Kelth1oyI"sllUme.,ts
Kellogg Co
K811slromIndustries
Kollwood Co
KeNt Servlces'A'

B
B'"
NR
B-+
A+

NR

KEMET Corp
B
Kendll l.,tl
NFl
*K.enname,al.lnc
B+
K.nnllh Cole ProlludiCYl,'A'NFl
Kel'lsey Nash
NFl
Kerr.McGee
8+
KelP 810pharmlC8lJlICals' NR
f.Key Energy Services
C
Key Production
B
KrtCorp'
M
Keynote Systems
NR
KeySpon Corp
B+
KIIyslonl Aut\71l~ Inl1J51"~~
NR
Koy3Mldla Group
NR
Kloree lnc
NR
KFX Inc
C

Siock SpillS I: DIvidend!


1 3-foi"-2:00. I 2-Ior- 1;98 . No

~----------

;.

"'00
., 0
"'On

~i
"tJ"~

., ....z
0

(Q

lD 0

~"T1"tJ

oc..b
... :1: ....
......~J:..

68 'KIM~KUL

y,.

.Prlor
DItI
. t-rwd Yllr DatI
:;.,""

.....
....

Jf!xt au'Tllr

Com.

01' t~~~.

:l:Klmban Inn CI'B'


Klmbllrly'Cllnc

.-~.-

"Flletl

B+

Jil'

A-

Dcl,
Do'

II."

,a'

~ High

0.86: D.ae

04

0.30
0.44

N.

Do

Jel .. Q2

0.24

NR

So

t<LMRoyel Dutch "'Ir


N.
i<nlght Rlt:ldeTInc
AKnight Tradlng Group' ... NR
t<nlghl Trensportatlon
B+
Knlnht!lbrldnR Tanhrll
NR

M,'

.,.....
.......

I(lmco R.alty

t<lng Pherrneteu1lcels
KIrby Corp .'
t<lrlnBrewlry "'DS
,*KLA.-Tencor Corp
t<lemath Flrsl Sencom

_ ....

Kc.la Corp
t<ohl'lICGrp.
t<omaglnc.,_
t<omatsu Llth'DS .

N.
NA
B

NR
B+

.,-

~.

Q4
04

04

Dc' 04
Do' 04
Dc

Dc
Dc'

Jill' '.04

0.62

Do
M, .

.......
.......

EIitcftOtI NV NR
Koor.Indul LId ADS
N.
J(opln Corp ~
'8. Kol''' Elet;lrIc Power "'DS NR
t<or8e Telecom ...DS
NR

Oo!'

.......

PhIpt

t.t<ornlFerry InIl
,t<OS Phannaceu11c.l11s
Kosan Blosclencel
Itl't:PMG COnlulhng
KPNOwesl N.V.'C' ADS
Kraft FoodlI'A'
t<rtspy t<f9m1 Doughnut!
t<ro;.r Co
:f.KrOl"Ollnc :.
Kubole Corp "'DA
f:t<utlcke & Sanllind

NR
NR
N.
NR
NO
:NR
fiR

0.09
0.75 13

0.41)."

0.37"

0.58
0.32
0.46..

0.53.
0.27
0.41

8
HI

.......

0.26

0.22

22

...". ...
........

......

Do
Dc~J,

Dc'"

<:14 dO.'J

...

.......

Dc:.
11).08
dO.46
04 dO.26
Q2
0.12
04 -dO.03

"" .. 0,
Dc

a.

Dc
Jo'

Dc.

Do 04

JlI'~' :0.
B+ J . '03
8~ Spll01
NR
M'

B- So' A'

0.32
0.13
0:32
0.19

.......

:::,"
(P.'

Gul --

EttlmII1l1t1Bhr) , of

$trHt
. Mlln

. HIp

.. ,Low

0.46
3.20
3.15
1.52
1.85

Eili.

.,

YO."3:
'13.31
Y2J!IB
. '11.33
...1.32

O.41J.1.
: 3.24
3.21.
'1.55
1.91.

0.50
3.27
3.25
1.58
2.00.

CO.47
...1.3~
....2.80
Y01.93
vO.94

1.02
UI2
2.30
1.03'

1.04
0.98' 17
1.65 . 1.110
2.30 .2.30
1.:3-\ 0.80' 22
.......

......

13
3
11
11

.......

...60.04
1."
...3.53
2.82f-.
v2.05 10.3~.
." yO.7B ,0.92
...... :iUI5 .2.25"

0.8.&.

0.60

.......

....... ...

vdl.08 dO.57 dO.S7 dO.57


.. ...0.58 ',0.16" 0.28
0."
...1.10
1.38
141. '1.32 23
1IdO.93 dO.50 d).50 dO.50 1
.... ...0.13 0.29
0.29. 1
0.29'

....

.......

......
.......

dO.H' dO.17

23

..

........ ....... : ...


....... .......

.......

110.22 1~),15

0.52
3
2.11(} '3
0.24 13
0.6B
1.97' 3

..e.82 dU9I "dO.52 dUfi


....0 86 tl4.35~ d2.50 d8.20
110.09 l'O.fI' dO.59. dO.B9
...1.03
1.23
1.20
'.22
...1.25
154
2.10
1.10'

dO.OS' 110.121' 7
dO 43 dO.52. J
dO.18. dO.31 4
0.13. 0.10 15
rIJ.02 110.04 :3
0.33
0.14'
0.33
0.23

1.81
2.90
'0.41
0.94
2.65 ..

YO.81 dO.1."
vr::I1.B4 d1.76
Ypdl.44
d).821
.'tdO.se,. 0.591
d.29
dO.4""
pvt.03
.' 0.30 11
1.19.
...0.271 0."
0.12
0.30-. 17
: ...1-.04: . 1.52
0.;7
3 PYO85
1.2~t
P'C3.27
3.32
dO.28 11. 'IF'Od1.17 d038~

Stock Splill .'D1vtdtnd1 .; '. 2-lcr-1 1'91.. To splU 3for-2\811Dee 24" 3 2-for-1:97:01.
3-lor-2:9B,01. IQ 2-101'-1,'98:00. 114-lor-1 :00. If 2-lor-1:99,00. 132-for-1:01 (t'Mce).

I....
0.811 12
0."
0.15
0.03 12
0.27 . 0.24
9
...... ......

04 0.91
04 0."
Iic' 04 0.25
Dc
....
Dc ,04 dO.02 11).02 11).02 1
Oc' ':04
0.04
Nil' 2
0."

D.
NR

Kon~1

0.09
0.82

low

0.09
0.79
0.8e
0~9
0.55

.KlndIlr'=flEgyPlml.P.
t<lnder
en

....,

.. ,. hwt'.!I!lnlm'IWhd, or

,,.,

,,
,,,
,
J

0.06' dO.:i1- .7
d1.35 d1.95
dO.~ dO.9B
0.65
0.55 15
dO37 . II) 69
1.18 1-4
1.21
0.45' 0.42
7
1.57' 1.46 17
1.37
1.17 3
3.32 "3.32
I
dllO'" dl.7S 12

"'" .L_

alriet Elllm.r.. (W"r!

"'''

,HIgh-

.....
3.46

.a.s"

1.70"
2.'8
1.30
1.72
2.89
1.30~
0.1I3~

..."
3.56

1.85
2.55

1.35
1.85

1.25 17
1.53
2.69
2.00 .0.50
11
0.63" .0.63;' 1

d4.1.~,t:l3,88
d'.40 2
3.,n
3.49
2.80 13
0.57~ 1.15
0.25 13
1.07
1.12
0.97
0.8B'; '0.87
09.

,....
0.48t
.. 1.68
......

0.50'
1.75

,.

1,261

11

13.962

14
"19
22
13

, ,.

'"

0.'5
1.62

,
.. ,
,

23
,."

..

. 0.02~

0.30 dO.23 3
......
...
dO.111 O.OB . dO.30. 5
0.74
0.74
0.74
1.58 . J
2.02
2.72

'. 0:43~' 0.9S: 0.10


dl.06~ dO.BO' d1.29
dO,9J dO.aO . d1.1 0'
0.831 1.12 . 0.86
dO.39 dO 24.. dO.77
1,<115 1.50
1.40
0.62 - 0.59
0.61
1.76
1.85
1.68
' 1.52' 1.5Se
1.'9
3.38
3.38'
338
0.40t 0.62
0.18

3-fl)r-2:99. 5 3-1012:99:oo:4lor-3.'01;
2-lor-1,'97:99. \53-for-2,'99:01.

14

.. 01 .a~~h
AR:~~I
~I': Rlb-"- IS Mll.j .

3.31 '13
3.48
3
1.52 11
2.45' 11

10
'0
'0
...

..:.'0
'3

."

"...
'9

'"
"

J
4
14
.6
14

7
16

,
,
J

15
'9
16
25
'"

"

:NII

' 5-Yr Prot

.,.

".

271'

620
513
1.073
2.104
76.2
6,020
3.212
1.257
'07
76.3

Tlnglblt
Boo.
(SiShr)
11.65
7.4B
22.27
14.96
16.'35
1..&7
0.45
56 . 11

9.38
1628
38.87

N.,
5.91
5.17
16.21

'24.2
0.59
1'.61
:59.7
6,152 - 6:21
;.358 . Neg
10,791
19.66

ellh

Ao.
(S/Shr)

CO"",
Slot"

Rr~!

-NIIIII olll'u"

1/24
-1124
2/15
3109
1/18

0.65
3.13

2120

LebOne Inc
BLabor R8BcIy
8
lllborlto!'1 CQrp "11'1' H1l1gs BLeBrllnche &. CO
NR
1L.l!Iciede Group
8-1-

"

39.84' 39-
26.30
72.00 31
0.47 50.23 .'9
13.19
11.9& . '9
5.63 60.60
11114 33
2780
30
7"
18.3'
0,42 ..
0.84 :
1 48 : 67.85 49
0.25
0.04
..

."

"

1.:50
dl.66

3."
i1.B1
2.33

34.679
N"
- 301
309
49,000.
No.
293
4 ....
994'
61.92
555 . 2.29

3.73

'.

."Prlor v , Dill
S. NtX1 Y~IT Oat.

2.56 . 14.21. 30
4.54 56.1"7'.16
49.60. '5.
2.115 3e.oO 23
48.93

Nog

"54

NIII{
. .. EPS
ZOO, /hIpl
. Nev'OJ .PIE" .O,t.

KVH Industries
C
KYOCllr8 Corp ...Of\
NR
L.3 Communlc8!1onsH1dgs Nf:l
L. Joll. Phllrmaceufjcill
Nn
1La-Z Boy'
A.+

35,682
12.70
8.56
.2.049
10.32
- 926 .. 2'02
0.20
.....
20'85
13.865
11.84 "",,,,
10.684
,60.2
4.23
2;856
435

Month
Eo'
Prlt.

._,

"

,/{"

"

lI2'
1/18

1122

,
, ""
...
,,,
31'4

27.07 . d'12/12
5.92
3114
.16.1'
1'006' .
15
23:25

.,.,
d

dO.09

6.60
31.55
7.55
.16.M
8.30

", 1/31

1.03
0.39
2.11
1.54
03'
2.25

33.12
37.25
:25.32
43.10
56.50.
15.71

65 3109
17 12105
3S 1/25
17
1130

2lor-,':OO. '3-loT-4 AEVEASE:99. ~ 2-lorl.'99.

"
.,

2/27

r~R
B'"
C
NR

Ladish Co
l.alarge North AIT'Il,ica
Laidlaw Inc
Lak.ell!lndFinanCIal'
Lakes Gamlnljl

NA

B-

t.Lllm Research
Lemllr "'dYertlsing '....
Lamson & Sessions
Len Chile "'DS
tbancaster Colony

'NA

SNR

A+

LlInce.lnc
BUll'Cer ecrp
B
landalr Corp
~JA
Lllrldarnerlca Financial Grp t~R
:t"lllndlluer Inc'
B-+
und8c Corp
lendmar1l. Bllncorp
LlIndry'S Restaur"n's
laMS' End
landster S:yslllm

NR
"SA
~JR
B
Nfl

Lanl. Corp
~1:lantroni~ In"c
large Scale BiolOgy
lasar-Plcillc Media
laserscope
.usan
Inc

NR
NR
NR
BC
NA

Stock ::iiplli. & DiVidendi


3-far-2:97 .

::E
o

,..

"0

"n
~i;'
'" 0

,,#~
","'Z

u:> ..

'" O

en"'''
o c... 0

_:x: ...
.....~J:..


42

Earnings Guide
HIlt

PrlDr Vllf DI" .


:t NIl'd, .... Daft
HI_at

EAT-ELA
CDm.
Stock"
R.nIlF1~

I...

Eaton Corp .
:tEaton Vane,
IBay Inc
aBen)( Inc
eeT InU

A
."
NR
HR
NR

Dc
Dc'
Dc'
Dc
Ja

au

.rtIl'

5trM1 E,tlmatila (II!ItIr) 'of


"I.
'Hfgfl
Low E.,.,
04
01
04
04
Q3

.Ec.helonCorp
NR
EchOBay Mine.
C
EchoSllr CClmmunlclllons',A'
NA
ECIT9I8cdmLtd
NA
Ec.liosYICOrti
NA

Dc
0 .. 0.13
0.14 0.13
3
De
04 dCI.02 0.04 dO.05 4
0& 04 dO.03 0.08 dO;13 11
De 004 110.12 dO.05 dO.1S 5
Dc
..
..,

EC:Q(Bb
Inc
eCollege.com
EDAPTMSS.A.ADS
'EDEN BloBCIenC41
EDGAFIOnline

NA
NR
NA
NR

Dc'
Dc
Dc
Dc
Dc

Edge PetroleuM
NR
Edillon ,ntl
8
~Edtlon School,'A'
NR
EOOColp
.
B'. EOP-EWarlcicllde
PorlLmlAOSNR

Dc
Dc
Je
Dc
Dc

04
0.02'
04
0.25 0.35 0.20'5
02 dO..2t dO.HI dO.26 9
CN 0.30 0.33 Il28
5

'110.74 1.02
1.13 0.92 2
VlJS.84 1.3U. 1.41 d3.20 .11
PYltO.79 dO.SOtdO.79 dO.1l1 9
\/0.05
1.11
1.13 1.085
v1.73
1.95 2.35
1.69 4

1:Educ.tlon Mlnllgemllnf
NR
EdI.aknIIVQIoConferlncinljlNA
Edwlrd!lUftse1enc..
NR
Edwln:tIIA.Q.)lnc
A
EEXCom .
C

J".

02
Q4
04
03
04

vO.93 1.14
1.18 1.09 10
Vd2.76 dU6
d1..16 dU6
1
.,."....1I,
1.03
1.1)4
1.02 13
v3. 3 2.03" 2.10
1.92 3
vGlJ25 dO.42~ dO.1] dO.S7 9

EFC 8.ncp
eFundlCo'll
:hG.1n CommunlClllons
Egqn.8d.cdm Inc
EGllnc

NR
'NR
NA
D
NA

Oc
Dc
Je
Dc

Eiool PLC ADR


EIPaJOCOJp
El P.,O ElectrIC
ap.uoE"';~PlrtnlflLP
- Elln Corp ADS
*Elantec Semiconductor

NR Mr'
B+
[)coI C"
NR 'Dc
04
NR Dc a4
NR [)cI 04
B- Sp'l Of

Slock SpRll ~
l3for2,'99. I 5.lor-1:00.

A-

Dc
Dc
Fbi

Dc'

Del

004

a..

a..
04

04

04

0.32
dO.14
.......
dO.25
110.06

035
dO.'3

0.30 10
dO.'"
4

110.22 .dO.27
~la5
tIO.06

.2
0.05 dO.D2 .2

0.56 0:57
0.55 9
dO.09 dCl09 tIO.09 1
0.27 0.28
0.26 13
0...... 0.46 0."2
2
dO.111 dO.13 dO.25 e
0.28

0.30
. ,:.

0.26

NN

6~

Nil
0.1M- 0.18 0.15 ..
110.02 dO.08 O.a. dO.17 9
l'd1 32 .1IO.40t dO.26 dO.71 12
YO:IO.69 d1.D9 d1.02 d1.16.5
.....,.92 0.4" 0."7 0.39 14
VOl.56
1.047.1.50
1.45 10
va1.75 110.82 110.80 dO.63 4
v1.3-t <10.'2 110.12 dQ.12 .1
YGO.85 dO.93 dO.87 dO.98 4
Que dO ..:]" '110.25 dO.36 2

va.1I7 0.88' 0.88 0.88


'110.11 0.83 O.SS 0.79
Pwl3.62 dO.79t clO.79 dO.7S
va1.53 dO.66-dC).49 110.65
vOO.02 dO.60b20.53 dO.639

0.02

0.06

0.81
0.2"
0.15
0.56
0.09

PlrI:I'.32
0.85 D.n 1.4 1,62...4
0.24 0.24
1 ...01.09
0.21 0.11
6 !GO.03
0.511 0.52 18
v1.10
O.'0
0.09' 4
PvO.29

No adj lei JlIl dBITInY Flnl Svca:95, 2for1:97 :98;00.

2-1or.1,'99 ..

lD 2.lor.1,'OO.

Standard & Poor's

~DOI:I .
2001
2002
Actllil &tnM'I Eatlmate. WShrj '01 StnNf fill"'*'
(H!w2
!P'
...."
HIpII
L.ft Ell. Me,n
Hlllh Low

0.e1
0.65 0.54
0"
"'16.24
3.26~ 3.30
2.50 11
0.47
a.SO 0.45
" vp:!1.80
2.01
2.10
1.95 15
0.12 0.14 0.12 Ii
. wO.17
0.47' 0.50 045 19
~.12 dO.08 110.104 5
vdO.90 dO.58 dO.53 dO.70 5
dO.25 dO.25 lIJ.Z5
I
M.96
d1.0J "d';OJ d1.ro
1

0.05.'
333'
t.35
0.56t
1.92
0.3"

0.05
3.38
1.35
0.62
1.95
0.49

1
8
1
4

0.05 1
3.30 18
1.35 1
0. 8 '12
1.88 20
0.40'"

3.ge~
2.34
0.74
dO.18t

50Yr Prul
EPS Annuli
, of Orawfh Rml.
Est. RIIt.. ~ "MIl.)

4.77 3.10
2.42
2.30
0.82 '0.70
dO.De cIO.29

10
3
19
5

050'
0.55 0.46
3
dO.Ost 0.05 dO.15 .9
0.56
0,95 0.25 12
dO.~O' dO.02 dO.51 5
0.5f)l. 0.77 0.46 14

10
'5
..,.
48

ranillb..

15.00
4.40
3.99
4.26
4.40

304
'0
26

4.39
0.83
Nag
10.33
4.55

9
.3
~,.
dO.73 dO.55 dO.79 4
0.05~ 0.13 cIO.03 2

14
42
.....
30
25

2,264
12.5
25.1
1.23
9.74

6.39
1.11
3.87
J.Z2
Nea

2.70
d1.5e

0.75. 0.75 0.75 1


1.Sn 1.90 1.50 12
dO56. dO.47 dO.S7 7
1.22 1.25 1.14 5

25
23.8'
.8
11.717
30
376
104
207
9
3095

5.46
7.43
. 2.
4.59
20.35'

"

20

2.74
Neg
Neg
20.86
6.14

1.38
.1.21
2.3U
"d027t
1.19

1.2

1.29 1.17
2.70 2.12
Nil ~.57

7
3
6

17
15
12

1.24

27

38
18

0."5-1 0.75
367
1.1!
092'
2.3"
0 53

1.34

3.85
1.25
1.15
2.112
0.613

1.06

0.25

3.50 '.17
1.25 1
0.85 11
2.25 19
0.60 2

IS
1<
11
. 21
27

371
8.59
775
2.839
262

.41.1 .' 14.82


418
...72
53."
0.66
479
0."4
1861
&.88
170
2'1,950
702
112
1,302
113

1.51
15.35:
8.79
Neg
1.n
4.57.

21 1122
16 :v29
1f19
d 21'2
d
.

10.09 89.61
1.613' 32.28
030
68.07
3.86
3.12

49.3
281
2.715
1,170
217

1.IlH
1.70
1.45'
dO.2~ dO.IS deJ.24

SO

8,309
48\
431
29.0
21.7

Manrlt
Hen
C.,,,
End
EPS
8*
Flow
PriCI 2001 R,pI
(S/Shr) (SIShr) ND'I'01 PIE: Dall
Hil

14.20 '8e
1122
0.30
0.59
d 2/23
dO.92 26.47
d 3114
2.68.4.70
d. 2/20
14.66 36
.

0.92

1.n
d2.13
d3.39
3.42
dO.73
0.63

0.62

37.40
3.15
4.25
3.33

25
d
d
d
d

2/14
2/.13
311"
2J23
2105

U6
15.10
19.44
24.33
22.80

4
12
d
22
12

JIOs

36.80
2.15
25.25
4.2.60
1.85

32 2105
d .......
25 2107
2' 12'22
d 2/27

1.io

14.30 16
15.00 '16
1.60 . d
d
15.07
d

0.62
481

2/12
3102

2108
2105
1/30
2122

3.10 62
..
"".50
13 11:]0
13.71 10 2/13
1.es., 37.51 67 2101
1.68 "4,22. 23
0.91 34:01 .. 79 1/18

2 3-lor' :99:2lor1,'00. ~ 2.lorl,'99(twlcel,'OO: :2-loi.1:98. I 3-lot2,'97. 1l1-Jor=3-RI!V'ERSE.'98.

Prllli Vllr DI'


Nlrt YHT0.'.

Com.
Slock
A8nk ~

HI"" of 11111.
Elastic Natworl<6
Elbll Syslerns
'Elbll Vision Sysll3ms
t;ICom Inn
ElcorCnm

NR
NR
NR
NR

Eloctric Fuel
Electric Lightwave'A'
1: Elscl'o Sc:leolillc lnd
Elec.roglas Inc'
Elec'rO!ux ~B ere'ADR

NR
B

NR
NR

Electronic Ar1s
Electronic Clallll"g House
Eleclroolc Dal!l Systems
ElectronIcsaoutlque Hldgs
Elactron1c5For ImagIng
Elilabilth Arden

B+
8A

N~
B

NR

';

Elsevl!). NV ADS

NR

ELXSI Corp.
B+
Embarcadero.T&r;hnologleS
NR
EmbotelladoraAndinl ADS NR
Embralll.Pafliclplcoes ADS NA
EmlJr'tldnc
B
EMC Corp
EMCOA GrouP
EMCOAE Corp
eMarge'll'lteraC11ve'A'
tEl'Mr3OtI ElK1ric

8+
IIII'?
NR
NR
A+

'*

ErTllsphereTechnologies C
emTnlsCommunlcallClM'A' NR
EmpJreDist EI8C
B+
ETflllAlSI
Hac\Otj;I(ChHejAOS
NF
Ernpruas ICASOded,dADS Nf
EMS Technologies
B

Stock SpIU,

IS

__ ..-

UIVlu~n\l.

;.
'tiC
"0

"gn
...

""

""C:u:!

.. '12
0
to 0 .

lQ

",,,"1:1

o
'- 6
... ::tw
..... f!nJr,.
.~ ...... "' ...:.:l "r .
..~"':i"T~'J".:'I"~~';.;


126 WE5-WIN
Prior Y , 0It11 .
t NtdT,.,.Dm
'NII""

of

~,

COIn.

NlKt Quirt.,

I"~

..... ':Hlp

W.st,rn Gas R,laure_1

e-

lk

WlIlll!lrn MlIItlplel'A'

NA
B
NA
NA
NR
NR

Dc
Dc . ac
Dc'

NR

lk.Q4

B'
BB
B+
NR
AB+

. Oc . Q1

Weslern Wlrel.ssA~
tW8S!1l'C Banking ADS
Westpolnl Slavlns
Westport Rlsources(New)
:t:W8stvaco Corp
Westwood QrllI
WlIISeel'A'
"WlIyemaeuslr Co
WFS Flnanclal
tWGL Holdings
WhlrIDooi Coro

:l:WhIlI Electronic D11151gnaNR


WhIlIIh.11 Jlwellel'l
NR
B+
Wfl/lney Holding
Whole FootIs Merkll
B
WHX Core
C

lk

Q4

J"

a.
a.

De . Q'

lk
Sp

lk
So

J,'
lk

0.28

D.36

0.18

....... ' .......

1.28

1.26

1.211

a'
a.
a,

'"

Q4
0<

'0'
0,
a.

0.03
0.0'
0.15
0.13

0.04 . 0.02
0.31 ao.08
0.18
0.10
0.1011. 0.12

0.72
0.15
0.49
DJ'3
1.55

0.73
0.21
0.75
1.05
1.81

D.D6
D.90
0.72

Dn.
D."
0.73

0:72
0.05
9.GB
0.05
1.'4

WDlJ.I"""E""'VY Ptnnll.P.
tW1lllema Induatr1ee
W11l1llms,SOI'\om.
Willi' Orouo Holdings
WllmlFWltonTrust Com
WIl,hlre Siale Bank
Wllion G,..ltlllch
Tech
Mlsons TheLAlher EJl)eftI
WInd Rlv8r Syslerns
WInk Communications
*Wlnn-Olxll SloTlltl

NR

BB
NA

A+
NA
NA
NR

BNA
B+

J"
lk

04

0.43

.......

a.

lk

Q4

JlI'.
Ja"

Q'

lk
J'

,.

04

...
.a.

1...
3

.-.

0.10

.......

,
1

1
'0
9
.,.

dO.47
0.58
....

_.

dO.53 11
0.35 ,8

......

'

'''.

.".... r:..
'.D6
D.96

1:12

.......
D.96

1.03
:,

15

...... :.:

....

0.95 '\0.

...... ,..

0.12
3.20
dO.01
0.28

0.14
3.40
0.02

-- ....

0.28

--~~~--~

un

_n.

It

....

H'' '

..01.44 . 2.3Bt 2.50~: 2.30' 6


vOO.13 dO.13~ dO.11 110.15
v1.96
1.60 . "2.00
.1.27
7
1.51 -,
v1.05
1.51 1.51
YIJO.97 d1.B91 ClO.93 d2.21 18
p2.52
2.97. 2.97
2.97
w1.28 dO.2". 1JO.23. -eIO.25,.:3
v1.52 . 0.9<4. 1.18 '0.'3
.
vPO.87
0.20 10
1.18. 1.75
-nO.J6
0.37 0.39 . 0.38 ...

:tY1.02
v3.72
'12.35
Pv1.75
v5.20
M.17
.,g).8S
v2.94

w14.10

1.51 1.'8 ,. 3
1.50
1.97i 2.05 ~- 1.88 13
3.39 ... 1.90
2.30
1\95 ,. 1;80 " 7
. 1.88
5.'1 . 5.58 "5.30
. 0.39~ 0.53
0.25 '2"
D.44 3
: 0.511 0.58
2.80 ~ II
2.63
2.92
1.13 .: 1.13' l'
1.13
d5.50t d5.50 d5.50,: 1

Not

2002
5-~p~ Annu"
T."g1b1." Cllh
f,flmla.. <nPlf) , 01 Or~"'h' '"RI'VI,
Bock
Aaw
Hllilk'
Urw.
Em.
A.I
...JHS
MIl.)
IlIShr)

(lISh'l
"'oo

8tr!!!

3.282

....

2.368
37.8
.35

.1.264 1.54
1.00
O.O~~ 0.19 dO.1T ,II
"1.78. ,1.90
1.70
1.80
1.80
1.80 "' .
d1.50. dO.OB d3.28 17

.:.:"1. ......
.O.75~ 0.80
3.03
3.10
1.34. .1.38
.
.....

0.74
. 90
1:31

,
19

.......

.1.98.
0.55
0.75
-dO,OB
61,97
, 1.00

1
5
3

..

1.80

1.73

1.50
1.88
1.30
1.10
'.16 ,.3.90

15
11'

1.95~ .1.95
1.95
0.71
0.75
0.78
1.78~ '2.01
1.50
'0.18
0.2'. 0.'0
d1711 d1J52 ,&'.00
1.19~ 1.32 '1.10

....

=.-

1.1.

,
3

..
3

2for1 ,'97.

'"

6,680

seD
15.980
.366
1..48
10325

..,

ge.8
355

....

24
7
23
40
1.

4.652
314
63'
'10398

22
13

....
'20'
.1S

".

n..

50.5
1,829
1,aOS
747
a8.9
91.8 .

'"
"
""
". '.34
14,

e.31
1.5<
14.05
.11.58

N"
II "7

1.816
N",
.220 . 11.93
3,935
23.17'
554
N,"

1.839
175

~3lor2:00 .. 2lor1 ,'Ot: '3lor2,'9a:99:

_.

"

'."

lD

12

1.78
... ,
1.44
'1.22'

19
7
19

21

5'
.' l'
15
~1
13

.-.

.-

po.I1.52 1.70 . 1.75


1.55.
.yQ.70 0.63
0.83 '0.83
1.19 '1.23
.0.99
1."
'.97 ,0.89
~:~~
. 0.93
va. 0 3.80 4.15 3.74
Pv1.n

10
10

,,. ..

O. t6. 0.42 dO.01


2.20~ 'l7S
1.25
9
1.47t
1130
d219 d1.83 d2:96 '13"
2.80 . 2.65 1.3
'2.73

~.,

..

30.

,. ..".
..
,

3.53
3.53
058 . 0"3
3
D35 dO.08
1.70
3.00
0.31
3
0."5
1.71 :1.81
'.65
3
2.1U 5
1.'0 12.
3,
;2.1551 :i!.75 2.50
2.00
. 00
. 00
8.4.
5.50
5:~9

3.!I3
0.50~
0.15.
2.38.
. 0."2~

vUO.Ci5 dO.29. dO.1. dO.37 ..10


1/3.12 2-.28 2 .. 5 . 2.13.;10
,,1t11.11 MDt D82
0.57:.9
1I'lI1.n d2.1!:7'.d2.18 112.37.13
. 2.60' ,2.30 13
.v1.17

SlOCk Spllll 6. otvldlndll .. , Acij lOr 5%:0~ .. 2 2lor1o:88:"" 2-4'or1:00: 4 3-lor2:01.


2-101'1:97. No adj lor slk d'sir 01 Williams Commun:01. 1010%:00. 113Ior2,'97:99.

Standard & Poor's

200t .
. :,
StrwetfetllM.' (II8ml .' of
L_
EPS'~ ... .".

1.98' '.1.98
0.57 .. 0.59
0.10
ova.07
2.98 . 3
o<l'l.5<
0.96'. 1.19
:dO.02 . 8 . '11:11.05 dO.05. dO.OJ
'll'1.09
dJ..tJ7 d1.83
.....0.32
1.0~ 1.12
: 0.22

...

Earnings Guide

... _.oo

dO..

.. .......
.a. dO.se

Dc' 'Q4
Oc"

.,

0."

lk

.3

'0.08

dO."
dO.B'
NA lk' Q4 dO.07 0.0,1 1,13
B+ '0C"Q.f
D.42
D.!lO 0.29

Wild Qlts MlIMlS


W"'.mltll
fndu8
WHlbro, oroup
NR lk
WlID,ml ComrnunlC OIP . NR lk
B,
WIlliams COI
Dc'

..
rJI

.. ...._ . ....... ....... ...


a. dO.66 dO.13 dO."
...
.'.-..

So
Del 04

Oo'

....

.".h!p!; EatlIIIIIl.. (MIlr)

Ilock
Rink . FlICa!

'II..

Western AI.oure ..
Western Sl,rr, Bancorp

___

12.903

'.n
28.59
012.93'
17.03
10.87
1.72
e.47 .
2409,
,.4.22

' "eo

Nlg
22.94 .
.5.73.
3.63
12.25

"'.

R,,pi

H'IM of 11111<1

D,10

:t:Winnabego Indus
WlnSlar Communlc.llons
Wlntrusl Financial
Wire One T,chnologies
Wlrelllss Fa~Ii'ies

29.88 ., 3'" 21'


4.29
.d
17.25 10 ....
,D
....... 104.70 'D
d 'It' 3
2"57
....
38.10
'3' .....
0.35 2.28
d V13
17.38. 18 V.'
5.63' 28.81 .5 'lI'l7
0.90' 29.28 79 . 2/18
2.20 21.14
14 3123
7.51. 52.85 27.. 1124
23.81
'D 1125
27.72
15. 2102
10.39 65 7.

,r.

0.45
5.89
.......
9.38
....... : .'2.28
1.70 42.91
. 31
1.40

......
5.36
0.09

.......
3.79

0.1"
2.07

N"
' 14.3B
" 78.
2.28
8.89
: 3.19.
4.10
4.83.

P.~ lG01

No"01. PtE

Prior V,.r gl"


~ Ntrly ... o.lM

No 'd

3.20

.......
'.50
7.78

Month .'
Endc .. '

,.",,;

...

3.09
0.50
1.63

15
19
15
3.
.d

110'
3/15
'/22

.......

.....

.
.....

.....
23
9 ........
.
25 ......
.1. 1118

"

15.40 ..
28.'0'
50 ......
11,72 12 :wo
17.20
d
1.31
...
d
13,71 13' .2101

..~
.

"0,'

0,

NR
NR
NA
B
NA
NA
NA
BNA

D"

0'
0'
Dc
Dc
Dc

J.'

,.

Wollel1l Kluwef fN ADS


WolverlM Tubg
B
Wolv.r1ne World Wide
W"men Firsl Health Care NR
tWoodh'ei1d Indus
'+

1. "'''

9.48
d 'lI'l3
48.25 'l' 1117
14.60 'l' .
~.44 .' . d . 2105
11 ,2105
28.72
39.85'
5.39
38:88
23.68
50.60

Wisconsin Energy Corp


Wllness Systems
WJ CommunlClltlons
WMC L.ttI ADS
tWMS Indus

C"~
Slack
Rook FllUI

"

.f.WootIWard' Gov81Tlor
World Acelptence
World Access ;
tWorid wmllln51 F~ En~~
WarldCom '~c'Wor\dConl GrtI
WoodGate Communlc'A'
WoridOuesl'Networks
Woronoco.BlIncorp
tWorthlnglon lridus
W.P. car- & Co LLC
W.P. Stewert lid
WPP Group ADS
WPS Resoul'CBs
"Wnght.Medlcal~\roup
Wrigley (William Jr
WSFSFlnancl.1
Wynctiam In~.'A
XRlle Inc'
Xc:el Energy'
Xeikon N.V. ADR
Xerox CorJi

c.
NR
B'

Do'

'"

0,

NA
B'
B+
NA
B
I

a.
a
a.

0'

a,

a,

m
O~

a'
a

Dc

..,

Stoekspllii "Dlvldllnds
I 2.lor.1 ,'01. i 2-lor1 ,'98.

O'

0, 0'
0,' Q.
0' a'
S" a'
M'
0'

NA
NR
NA
B'
NR
NR
NA
B+
NA

a,

DC

So'

B'
B+

0,
My
0,
0,
lk'
Dc
Dc

0,'

a:
a,
a
a
a

D,

0,
0,
0"

a
a
a
a

Dc

lk'

3-lor-2,'OO.

"'..

~
.,

'"

'CO

III 0
~n

.,~

'0 'It ..
......
Z
lQ

..

co O

.....,,'0
0'-0
_:1:",
...... &,J:.,.

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 8 to FJH-6
Page 1 of 6

BUCKEYE PARTNERS NYSEBPL I~HT 32


11iIEUllESS 4l_~d12f1~
SAfETY

21lMl'l1191

TECHNICAL

3 Rai.rl!12l1Wl

ICIA

-...

......

100
000

low:

10.6

14.~ J
If A-

14.4
11.6

,2.,
16.1

20.8

20.5
15.4

14A

DIV1I

30.0
20.1

21.4
17.1

18.5
15.0

31.1
26.0

7.5%

lID

Ilea .. :

Tlrgel: Pric. Rang_


2003 20041 2005

31.1
25.0

29.5
25.0

ma

~:..

......

..'

R..,

12%
6"

".

..II,...."

,.,..... ,1."..,,' "

"

".".

,1'

71liiu";"'-;;'

.'

. ....

..

000000011

20

:,~.!.... 25~

20
25
235ll

20

2<43

P.rqnt
..... r..

.-

pal1nernhip also .oId 242,424 units 10 its


general managing partner, Buckeye Management Company, al $10 each, Budl.eye
Partners is one of the largest independent
pipeijne COI'M'IOI1 carriel's in the U.S.
CAPrrAL STRUCtURE
.. of IIlO.lDCI
TGllII Delll: $309.0 mi. DIIR In 5 Yrs $50.0 mil
LT Debt $JQ!I.D mi.
LTInWfai $21.0"
(Total iriIn!sf awllilge: ".9z1
(49IotCl'pl)
lases, UncapltallDd Annuallerl1ilh
Pen.lan Liability None.

_.

~"..
.....
"... ..ZO"
......""

..

,'"

..

... ,-'"... ....


,.. 'b'.,
... ,....
"
.

'59'
46.""

10.1
.61

!l.0'lo

10."

".

'.7
.u

....

'~1.8 163.1
45.4'
10.1
10.
34.6
30.'

45.'"

".

171
260.0

242.fJ

25l,

252.'

d2j

'51

.AI

1J.~

12.'%

1.1,

.MF

,.".

.. .... ,...-

.61

17~.s

8."

'66'

183.5
45.'1

".K

11.0
41.1

111

--

.., "
""
mn 224.0

>1

7.6,

4404'

.....,

111
.9>

,.7
214.0
246.0

2021

16'
214.0

125.'

233.7

11.1"
11.8"

"...
19.6\

12.1"
19.0'11.

.,1

5.1'

,.".

'51

"I

'" "'" '"

_v....

."

.n

...

.nl

183.0 1~.O
5Ur.
43.8' 46."
11J
131
16.4

305

49.3

..

13.6

2021
276.0
12.6'

"4.6'...
7"

...

55..

..

-.

"""

30""

,OJ

..

2.40.0

240.0

"

30',
'10.9\
16.'\
l.b'

'"

BUSINESS:
Buck P--.s, LP, is. mn1er IIrnIell ~ll
enpged pm.ty in Cl:IINnOn carrilge ianlpWtmJn of f'llf"1I*I pfit.rnIB~ prolIuds, WlIdlng gasolne (50" r:l "i9 yaune~ )!l fuel
l2SS), and didaB (23%). Us subsGiiIriII OM! and opsmeabocll
3,4OD miles af ~lD
MfWIg 10 mtes, rrmtly i'I fie NorItNiIIKt
MId uw- MGftSl The ~ip
., DpBnfts p~
II'"

.....
,.

,.

......

P'8t Esl'd'l7-"II

.."

,-

"".1'

lIo<.J,

...

.....
'"7
,.
'''''

W ....... --

~;;'lIo<.J'

,-

Ir

.............
ul.G!!s

......::...-

Ir--_ ....-

-...

11.3
.65

".

.13
1."

"....
""
'75
'"
65' W

".

""

10..

13.1
260.0

.IF
IF

211

........

ORAKr
ill

Of! OMl$SIONSH[RE".
Tm~iI.~"
*dIIIiI: _llIIB .......
1IIlIlII.. ,.....,

[RRQRS

..,-

11iIIII_"
....,....-.~lIII

..-..g

tal

..-....r~

".
IIC.

Ol-tl

EnblII"'1Wl A
Dba. DKrd pi!' UnH II

Ul
4110
3.J5
1..

Cop, .......
0 "" 11M
lSoaIr. ~.
pII' IhIIt

,V!

R..

ues,..Um
-Cnh ..... per Ihit

'.20

,.

27."

1.'8 Ann' PIE Rdo

11.'

R~.PIEItdo
A'll Ann' Dts .. Y'1IId

.75

7.3"
200

RI'IIl'IUlI~

"'"

17. 0"'-"':"1
,OA

........

ZO.JI

".

"'"..,

I\I1II

/iii ~TIll""D
Nit
D
ZO. _,Cop111n1ll
Long-'''' DIbt (IIIIJJ)

P'rvII."

ZO.

_r""",,'

ZO..,.

.... "... ""

R.......
RIIIINd

All Din

,."

Pamn'
1
III PM 'I Cap

tit" Ptaf

24.5%
5.'"

"'"

~
b IT\IIjor tliI and chnQl cornpml . Sold nllWllill:
tIIfinIriII in PemsJlv .... and IIilois, 10.00. BUI:bp Pipe Liw
Co. the Ger8a1 p.m.. 5mIe of Ie pII1IBsh~'a cast! di!drbutDr ill w-defBmld. OtfJd . DIm lea thaII " d LP. unb 0'9 11}K). Pres.ICEO: WIIIam H. Shea. Oru; DE. Adm".: P.O.
368,
Enmata, PA 18049. 1a; ~22-2125.
WIb: ..... bucbtp.am.

ea.

quarter of 2000. rising nearly 6% over the


year-earlJer period. to $5 1.8 million.. This
was an tmpressive perfonnance. consJdering that high petroleum prices have
caused many of Buckeye's customers to
delay shlpmenlS in the hopes of purchasing cheaper products in the future. Looking forward. we expect pipeline volumes to
remain healtlly. supported by strong
demand for gasoline. Jet fuels, and d1stillates.
(But an unexpectedly sharp
downturn in the U.S. economy would Ukely suppress demand and dampen results.)
Volumes should also get a nice boast in the
near tenn. as the partnership's customers
look to replenish depleted inventories .
These good-quaJityp though untimely.
units may appeal to income-orienled
investors. since they're now trading at an
attractive 7.5% yield. However. based on
our modest earnings projections In the
coming years, we think the issue has mlnimal 3- to 5-year appreciation potential.
(Note that a portton of the distribution ts
treated as a return on capital and is.
therefore.
tax
deferrable
for
new
unltholders.)
Justin He/bnan

December

S"'Oidl:StiHlt,on
............ nNIIlting
.- ~/I. , ... m......
~
.,/1 (01F~.... .$aDdr'II
""" ... /.:Ftke'St.bIIfy
.... .., .....
. dAIted 1lenYftEr.
1Xl~"II ... ~ fS) Nm1
GoeI eJi ..
,." ~bI&
IQ Ilose d mos1 oIw
lasses.: '90. $0.79; '92, $1.OS; '113, $O.D9; '94, abDul Fab. 6th. AppaOnIte PIIyment ab!s: entIies und!r VlIlJ8 LN .. reviN, UICIiI ButIl:. pn::. GnNth IJwsist-e:e
$0.05; V7, S'.66; 118. $0.13. ..... m, OIl do, d Fob., -'Y, ...... """ .... ICII .,. .. "m ..... l ..,.......
~
CIzma. ..-lhe ~~IU
reemIl. l.allll ....
if, ~
r- -...a5 lllllirtello be
if, ... MielI .....
~
III~
THE PIJlII.JSK:A IS filOl
II. -J~ ~
....

19.1

151.3

cVAI.\JELlEPUB

""
'" ,'-'"""
R"OflT"C:~, Ii'"
"'"... "..,.
,..,.

317.0
12.6'
20.6"

$1ft

..
,8.1" 'I'''

.-

11.8%
18.6'

11fJ

..,.

20.'
340

17.

1.4\

--

1005"
15.3%

,,,

.
1.81,

~.a" 2111 2T.~

23.1'

,... ,...

,0>

.61
1.3\

...

...

Buckeye Partners
has sold its trans
mix refining
business
to Kindel"
,. Tn.
Morgan Energy Partners for $37 mil .....
Re
....... ""~I
3.0%
2.5" 4.5%
lion in cash plus net 'WOrkingcapital
"'Cash F/oW'.
1.0"
3""
Buckeye agreed lD the deal in mld~
"'.0'10
7.5"
~~
6.5%
4.5"
Ck:tober. after it had mncluded that this
3.0","
J.O"
business. whtch rerefines pipeline transQIIM1EIIIJ OEYEN1ES ~ oaj
Co>
mix. (contaminated petrolewn) and then
Foil
1IIrJ1 Jull.Jl Slp.30 Dlc.31
markets the new products at. wholesale,
43.0
46.5
41.4 185.0 was not a good strategic fit with its core
'111
41'
43.0
oC7.1
47.7
46.7
1114.5 transportation and ternrlnaJing bustness.
516
76.6
85.3
305 . The partnership intends to use the pro~
90.3
lDOQ
112 315
96.' 941 1'8.5
reeds from the sate to pay down debt; It
51.0
SiD
SiB 5(0
11IJ
2110'
may also pUJ"5uemore-complementary ac~
ea,
~PERIII~'
quisttlons and. move to raise the ~arterly
F"
Y.ar cash distribution. DespIte this dea we are
J .. ..lO S<i~io
.41
.41
.48
.49
leaving our 2000 and 2001 earnings es1.9'
'"7
1118
.so .53 .fi7 105 lima .... uncha~od. at $2_40 and $2_60 per
.S2
.55
.73
.8'
'199
24'
unit., respective y. because we anUdpate
llIOO
.58
.53
.66
.a UIJ that margin expansion will offset the loss
.84
.85
.IS
z...
2110'
In revenues. (Buckeye entered the transea, QUARTERLYDLmIBUTD1S PAI). F.II mix refining business in March 1999, rolMid' J"..lO
lowing Its acquisition of the fuels di'Ylsion
,t9f
.375
.375 . .375
.375
1.50 of American Refining Group.'
.375
.375
A4
.525 1.n Meanwhile. the partnership's pipeline
.525 .525 525 .525 1'0 transport. operations are generating
525
.55
55
2.18 solid results. Transportation
.55
revenues
llIOO
.60
.60
.m
.60
were better l.ha.n expected In the third
ANNUAl. RATES

,...

..

.. ..

'1.5 nil

....

...,

21.~' 20."

,... ,,,. .".""

""'-

1991 1992 1993


199' 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
,0$
1..
11.31
lf5
.26 '.13
114 1."
7.51
'.66
'>1
1.13
1.61
1.87
211
2 ..
230
320
266
'.06
H'
U, 2.05 24' 1"
1.042
UII
1.n
2.03
'26
'.96
2"
1.3D
L10
1.30
1.n
2.18
UtJ
2M
1.10
1.40
210
1.'"
.63
.61
.14
1.00
.12
10.44 10.-40
10.13
10.79 11.33
1123 11.l1li 11.n 'U5 '105

1990

10.0
34.'

Partners' CapiUJ 26,837,906 units (51% of Cap'Q


Induda 243,114General 'artnersflip units
u of 10131110
MARkET CAP: $l5CI .....IIIOft(!inLl1l Cap}
CURRENT POSI1'ION
I"LLI
.3
22.0
15.7
Rec:eiabl.
16.9
3.0
18.7
,.3
S.3
S.S
Cu~nl:AssIts
242
59.6
Aa:tsPayable
19.0
15.5
4.'
Debt Due
"
Othe<
26.'
22.'
CurntlrtUilb.
--.o:!>
30.'

7.'

,,- -

...

".".

S.

Brothers Inc. were the undel'Wrilers. The

ea"'......

'I. TOL RETUR1111I1D

Buckey. Partners ""lui!1!d lhe pip~ine


subs~iaries of The Penn ConlLai C"",. Inow
American Finandal Group) on December 23,
1986 by selUng 24.0 million limitBd partnership units 10 tho pltllic at $'0 each. Goldman Sachs & Co. and Shearson lehman

'-

,.

20

InsIftIlliDMJ Decision.

""-

,.'"

.. ,1 "-

......

1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

--

---

12
'0

"-.-

-.I

,- .=-

,.1. ,

.,

trrDicln

Aml1To'lII

.....

'"

07h DGt. P&n1I

....=t;.~;:
2-1a!'1.

2003-05 PROJECTIONS

.If.-.

1<2

TrIE
12 4('rOIngllJ)!F
11.0 Pl RAm 086

LEGENDS

.~~ (l.Dlil.MI$d)

Pri",
GQI
40
(+2S~t
,",'
LR
3D
(-S%.
Insider Decisions

High:

Pl
RAm

_II.

_.1IftIM1.

......iUr'*UIe.

p.t

I'.

15. 2000
'

. II ,

..
100
6S
I'

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 8 to FJH-6
Page 2 of6

KINDER MORGAN EN. NYSEKMP I

1IIEUllES5

SAFElY
TECHNiCAl

3 RliIllIlllllDO
3 N~iI2l11O
3 RMlll'/loUl

lET" .10 11m ......

low:

11.8

....
=~~~*
CC~

2Cr'\:~

""a .... ,,,


....
L"" "
""
Oee.ions

"...

~l

.. .."
50

'400'

Kinder Morgan

.
PelQft1

(KMP)

Morgan formed Kinder Morgan, Inc., which


acquired Ihe Partnership's general partner.
In OCtober 1999, Kind" Morgan, loe. was
acquired by K N Energy, y,hidl simulla
neously manged
its name III Kinder
Morgan, lilt. (KMI). with Mr. Kinder as CEO.
tr.JMlI
TobIl Debt $'354.9 mi. 0\lIl m 5 YI'S $575 mI.
LT Debt 11354.9 rI1iI. LT Iftterwt 590. 0 mi.
(LT irnIesl earned: 4.lh.)
(40% aI Cap')

Laues.

Uncapltallz.cl:

dol UIUMI
IIARKET CAP:

AnnUli rentals see mill

$3.'

ea)f'~
Rec:eNables
~ntory (Avg

(lild cap)

40.1
TIB

31.7

"'.,
5.6

Cs11

Cumllli ASIllitS
Pay.bkl
DoblDue
Othe<
CumHJt Lilb.

13.0

7.0

..

Target Pric. RJInge


2003

---.r:4
>s.

131.9
19.3

31B

209.2
10.7
319.2

---m

2DD4

2005

....

.0
- ''''
- -- -- - --

, "

..
40
32

""""

>TB
116.5
11.9
37.6

203 .
47.1

..

805

,."

..

.90

..

..

..
..
..
..

'90
9.13
".JU

...
'.'

..

21.4'

d1.'

..

111.1
10.3"
10.3'1.

10.3'

..

1jJI'II~I~~994
,.., ,...
lOT

,UT

." ".
.n

..

,~.....

..'

,~.
,~.449.

.T5

21.'"

".
VALUE I.IE PUB 1tC.
'1.3-

2001

5.041

1M
JJ3

1.011
.16

.90

1.26
.44

1.26

1.26
.66

10..
1 .73

u;

1.66

5.'

1...
1.02
1.02

6.61

Tl!>

'60

>I'

'09

>43
1.78

",

--...n.

"... 'Ull
'M
4.ZI
V
3.10

..

Cl

19.7

R.... III 11J111


"Call Rolr" pw UriI

UIl Eningl pII'" UriI A


1.. Dill. DKl'd 1* IW

,
~.,.,-,,..
v.-,. """
,.'
"
'Us ,....
,.

"., ,,,
., ., ::..
1.'" 1.'"
1."
,...
,...
,OJ
13.'
".,
,,'"
an
"
,.,
,.,
....
"""
3"
...,to
.17

1.10

.13
1~11

11.60

11.Jll

11.JD

.41

.60

IJ.W

1-4.9

1>\

T.'"

..
".'"..
,-"
,-"
,..
".

53."
72

5.5.61

I.'

11.1

8.8\

50.

..

..

136S

1311.5

1502

1~.9

131'

1Za.S

123.1

5.11

6.1'

'J

11.0
.."

71.3

139

'.5

20.6'

..

14.7
.91
9.6'

~lO" 37.91

11J
11.3\
11.6'

11.0"4

..

11.1"

I.'

U..8.6"

U.
,,.

OMF
.MF

.MF
MF

OMF

.OF

.11

10>5

"'

10.3
1602

118.3
6.5\
1D.'\

.MF
.MF

321.'
5U"

..

1112
1.3,

10.1
11.7

24,M.
10.4
146.8

150.2

'.40

19.T5

".14

16.1

1.1'
41U

1Utl

51 ..

40."

,.'"

".

.1B7.3

580.1

"'.1

WI
IS..

1360.7

m.u

7.0,"

7J.
9.9\

8.6\

,,3>

Dt_

101*

UnIl.

AYI N1nl m;. KDa


RIIDn PIE Ildo
Ali An .. , Oil' YWd

f--

...

C<l5

5.15
1JD

..
,..

~"
,

.....
U5

1.'"

2ID

.....
'500

US

~_la'"

JUlI

70.

--

...

R......

Cop' IInIl
..... , ... DobIIlnIII

Ann ell TaIII Cap'I


lUll RIUn III
IWaNlIIo P.-t" ClIp

Pam"-'Cm,

Alum .... "..

P-"Is., '98. 1H 'tIO op.ilc.:

lIDO

3SlllJ
1US

"..,.
"'"

ptDduds PlP**, !l2"Ao; pi

pipeINI. 26"; C02. 12"; bull tIrmNII. 10". Oepr ... III: 2.5".
Has aboUt 1, 100 IIII~,
4,000 ~.
cmm.
& CEO cf
the genenl ~IMII": REharlI D.
Va CIwrM. MId Pr-.: Wi~
V. Morgan. Orgallimlt
(E. Addr ~ 500 Oalll;
HoUllDn. TX,
77OD2. T....
: 713-36&-8000. We .... ~n.com.

tcm.

capadty. The acquJsJtJon should raise cash


distributions
per unit by between $0.08 to
Thlrd-quarter eamlngs rose In all d1vt- SO.13 next
U...~
~.... "" "'"I
-. 11.5'" 13.9 slans, t..hanks. to throughput increases on We look or further acquisitions in
..
"Cash fIoolr"
12.5"
ZlOl. The partner.;hip has already acmost systems
and profits from acquired
.. 1".0%
E8mi'lgs
11.""
205"
.. 22.0%
gas and C02 pipelines that exceeded the quired assets from Shell as that company
12.0"
Book Value
-. 14.5"
7.0"
attendant
interest
rosts and the effect
refowses Its efforts. and. the merger of
the additional
units issued. We expecl anChevron
and Texaco will llkely make
QUARTBlLYRE'IIIIlIB lloaj
F
other gain In eamlngs per limited partneravaUable pipelines and/or tennlnals that
1lar.31 Jan. 31 Sip
OK. 31
ship unit In the fourth quarter from acquJ
those companies wlll have to sell to obtain
1191
19.1
1. 0
11.4
17.'
Federal Trade Commission approval of the
I.
36.8
12.0 101.9 1D1.9 :l1Z. sitions that dosed in the period.
100.1
1111
101.9 10U 121.4 428.8 ... and the Partnership should close a merger. KMP Is also expanding Into Canain a
157 .
20DI
193.8
1ll2.. ZlU 70S large acquisition in January. KMP has da by acquiring a 32% interest
2QOl
2IlJ
pipeline there. Historically. the Partnerm :III fllSll agreed to buy the
and lenni2('
nal buslneses of GA:
or S1.15 mtllion. ship has bought minority stakes In pipeEARNllGS PER SIIAIE
co!FoI'
and
subsequently
increased
Its
including
the assumption
of about $ISO lines
lIar.31 Jvn.30 SR.31 DIe. 31
we think it will Ukely repeat
1197
.25
.15
till miIl10n of debl. The deal would make KMP ownership;
.10
.41
the country's
second-largest
petroleum
that pattern in Canada.
1111
.52
.50
.52
.55
and chemical terminal company . These units oll'er high CUI"I'eDt income
1..
.51
.61
>43 storage
.61
.63
.63
.10
.67
.ID l.ID Main assets include the CAl...NEV Pipe and excellent prospects for growth In
and Nevada. the Centhe cash
dlstributiOlL
Acquisitions
at
10lJl
.7:1
.7S
.75
.77
1011 Une In Callfornla
OIS7Rl8U11l11S PMI c
tral Florida Pipeline. and large tennlnals
accreUve prices (roughly. less than nine
ea. _,
Ful
in four major dUes. The two lines serve
Urnes operating
profits) should be avaUM. J1 JIID.30 SlpJO Dec.J1
that
are projected
to have
able in good. quantities
over the next few
.315
.315
.315 J15
1.16 territories
I'"
l!1tl
.315
.315
.50
.so 1.63 above-average population increases over years. The Partnership also has decent
prospects fOT Internal growth from plpellne
the next 20 ~.
and the CALNEV line
l!1t.
.563
.563
.63 .63
connects to
P"s Pacific system. More-- extensions and terminal expansions.
1199 .65
.10
.70
.725
.715
over, both lines have considerable
unused
.ns .85 .85
Sigourney B. Romaine
December 22. 2000

.....

ANNUAl. RATES

..........

..."
eo.

.....

- urn.

..."

..,

'.'rL

Pal

......

Elf'd'l7'19

seeing

-~,
.-

gains

in most

divisions

is
...

PipeInB

-........- ........,....
..._=11
... .... ... w_.
,,,. ...,.
.... _C.....
,...."
J8S

53."
48.'
115.3

36J.

1.2'

- =--

... ... "'"... ...


"'"'

e.1'"

IUSIIESS: KIlder Morgan E.-gy PlltlMlR, LP . ill lhe MIDI'I


IIrgnI pipelDl ma:IfI" IirriMd pRnNp. h ~
...s opende5
aboUt 8,000 miles al' pebDBwn products and CO2 pipMnes. 'MltI
Z1 l55OCia1ed tsnina~:
7,000 millis at: fabal
;.
KIens:
IIlld
25 bIIIIl tllnninal CIc:itia IYII tnIns1'.-i aboUt 40 miiDl tons d
coM, colCll, MId
prada n 1999. kqund sallla Fe Pme

--;m Kinder Morgan Energy Partners

...

..

10.'\

16.7"10

.79
21.63
40.01
16.8

12

"TOt RRII:I
.

1.12

532
3fJ.~"
'.0
11.4

..
..
..

.'

25'

..
..

..
..
..

.'

, "., 1

199~

4.11

..

..

unil5
(60"401 c.p'Q

,... ,...

bllion

CURRENT POSrrlON

1990 1991

0'

Peulon UabilltyNone
Pfd Stodt None
'alt..-rs' cap"l:
64.Z15.i09

AI:d:J;

"

....

,I

Energy Parlnors

STRUCTURE

7.3%

50.0
36.'

20
16

I""

.....f......

31
'<212

was tormed in 1992 as En"'" liquids


Pipeline, loP., to CJWI'I and operate certain
Enron COIP. assets. The Partnersh~ offered
11.3 milion limited partnership units to the
pUblic in 1992 at $11.50 per un~ adJUS1ed
lor a s~rt, 1I1rough Lehman Brolhers.ln FebNary 1997, Richard Kinder lKld Wiiliam

CAPrrAl

28.6

45.6
33.0

.. ,,1,

....... ...~ ...


.....

1445'

38.1

/"

0 1 2

"., "'

122

.1.3
13.7

I I ..'"

000
000
0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
Instiutia .. 1DKiaiona

....

'04.6

_r~

Irmide.

.,.....

13A
".9

17.'
11.5

1Ir91

ftdicMos

Ann"N1
R_
(+55%~
(Hi

JfMA.JJ"1
1 0 500

16."
13.0

IIMl
nD

UGENDS
D.IG I OilIiIlPl~ p !Ih

2DDJ.05PROJEtmNS

50

High:

P
17 2e""""I.I)Ir'TIVE 117
,,. 49 RAllO WoO,,,,. P RATIO

I~ECENT
P~CE

1:'.

or

U.y~ne

'09

'39

".

-:!r

(Al......, ....................... hms: lIB: datIlS aabout


...........28.0...................
~ ... _iP.S
....... __
I:~ SIDcIr's rt:estabilltJ'
ship i'lt1l1!Sl Exdudes ~
1M 1511 d F8bruary, Ma:t. Au- tile fnI.)'8;11' d OIfTIIHhip. taxes are defend
14j. Ne.d
RIPDI'I d_1;-'t JaIWlfJ.
gust, NONmt.".
Un. hokWs.m net IBed CJII m abcuil 9D% tI. hIBd ..,u.'1
d'iluIabIe
Prica c:raw1tI "-s1lWftcl
(lJ Nex1 dldi!lufi:Jn menng afDUnll Jan. 2OlII: CISfI dIsInbuions, bill 011 flew pruportDnal mcome. (CJ In ~ionI. .r1JS18d" spII..
Eanli. ~
co llUl ....
UIr
. ~ M'
1I5el'ftIll. FacIIIIl ~
l5 ......,
tr-. ..-e ~
10 lie nlIiIIIIe ..
iI. f'W*Il .....
-.Ies "
till"
,

Tll[PUBl.ISIIl5~~I'([RRORSOR~ONSH(RUN.TIoiifllllllPlir-i1=~_
....... ==,.. ciIIl. .............
I
",
.11.
~I-,Ir~
*-I
...~inWlJ',....,
---.
=.u. ..... m.-I=~.
Il'IJ pM*'!I.~~.
__ G"pgM1.

-z.;pIft ,

90

fiO
60
II',

EL PASO ENERGY NYSEEPG


lIAEUNESS

SAFETY

3 Nrwl2D.6'91

lED

u. -e,1h
fa.'"
PlQ~

""

R __

2.. -1.

.Ill 11.DD-MiIUI)

2003'"

157

High:
Low:

10.3

66
'0.2
' .2

PE
.RAID

23 6('''''1112)I~EIATM
161
1Itdiol..

PI RAID

'.~

20.9

26.6
14.3

1>4

14.8

33.8
24.4

:l6.9
14.7

lEGENDS

2 .....
_

lTCHl/JCAl

RIi.I1If{1Wl

I='

.... ,,,
~.. "''''
f~~~J
""

ftttdor

..

Det::llllionl5

JF."_JJAS
ODD
0 0 0 0 0 0
10'0"
1 0 :5 2

a a

I ..

.". .......... ...


XlI.

lllJ

23.

'70

,...-'"

....

,_ILl

cuo ......

Receiqblq

~ntory
Currel'll

(Avge.t)
As.a

='~

""'or

Curnml lJatl.

621>_0

2162.0

Put

....
...
ven....IPo<~1

llYn.

't:osh Flow"

~m:::.

....

a1'.0

,roo.O

1537.0

32.5.

--.

15.0%

13.0"

1.0,,"
10.5%

9.0"

QlWl:TDrl1~'.KJ

_.ro31
IB31
1619
2225
3106

........

bt'd'l1'11

Jun.3Q
!l19
1296 1615
2SOO
3263
'7I1 S!l81

fa.a"
4....

,.a
'Hr

1.
1191
2llGO
2lIO,

'25'

Cal.

.... PER SKARE'"I15D


"51fARfftiS

1917

IIlr.31
.43

l!l91
1191
2llGO
200'

Co.
eDdar

II!l&

\H7
1191
1191

.<8

.43
.10

Jun.. Sep.30
.33
.39
.<5
.43
.46
.69
.51

.n

....

. ..

123
55
220
1.47

--mo-

.,

.. g3.11'4

90U
312\
54.1
91.1

..,.

".

...

.... '"
.,.

66.0

392\

39

10.'\

10.3'1.

Dec.!1

."

.49
.'7
M

.12

ClIARTERLJ 0MI8IJS HI)"


lIaro31 JuIl.3Q Sf" JO Dec.31
.11
.115
.115
.115
.175
.183
.183
.183
.183
.191
.191
.191
.191
.20
.20
.20
.20
.206
.206
.206

nu

669.0

,,. ,,.,
9.'" lD-'"

107.5

709.&

7lU

S.B'

8.6\
130'
7.3'1;,

'-l'
126"

,,'"

10.510
10.5"

..

10.9'10

..

,IE
NMF

...

1>.
49<

236.'
211.0
31.9'

26!1.0
25D.0
33.1"
4.31

5,...

d214.0

3.1'"
dS35.0
22150 2119.0
1934.0 2259.0
6.7%
3.1'
.S< 9.3%

d741.0

,..
!i.7'

"

2>.

..

....

IUD
5M
2.61

..
,,., ...
1.80

.IS

4.73

U.SS

1.15

d953.0

2552.0
""'.0

72.

U,

10.4'

83."

4.45

DlY'd. OKrll'llIr III ..


C.. " ......

'811 8oolYlhl:e,..srr

"":~

'35'
25.5"

4.'"

J25

IC ......

IA'Q AM

I PIE liDo
.-PIE ....
AYII AINl't Ch'1I Y"1IId
R....... (_I

12..
151
125 Nol_

d191.0
S223.0

3272.0
7."
13.3'
1.7,

12M

""" If'" "...


""",,:::m
lUll
6D9.0

I--

VAI.lELJlEPIlB_~C.O~S

'"Cuh
US EniIIgI JIll' III A

-'=
-

,-

1a.1

)&8.1

RftIII'-I pII' III

m ..
233.111
202

110.1

,...
... FkN-,.. .",
...
,~
I....

2001

".09

..5

2f.1f
23J.1II
'II

'20

...,.....
'A

,'12"

........ ....... -~=.....,,,


.15

....
' ' 'ill .,..
.... -I"""
~=::'"'.~I
"".
,..
....,,........ ,'-'",'-'"
,....
,,....
Nol....

..15

df2IIJ

5iIO

DO

..Ill

RIbn ClIIloW CIf'


JlIIurII '" Sbr. EII~

R_toColoEq

AI Dir'lIIto

NIt PrDI'

..

11.R

23%

BUlrNE.SS: EI Paso Energy CGrpcntiDn"' (fDrmIrIIJ EI PIUllI NItun.I Gu) opntiDns incbIe 1M ~.
gIIthMing, ~i1g,
& Ongll rrI nahnl QIIS; thIi maRBtng of IId1nI gn, power. &
g!:18 IIlIISVY curnrnodiies; pawtI' genntixI; lie wpUnon & prodlldieft at 1Yt&n1 gas & oil and the.~
& OJ*3br d M-uY fIfruhcb.n iIctiIs. n OIITII or II.....
i'l 40.000

rniIls of ~.
Al:quDd SDnm, 1Q1'99;TellllllCO's pIpelinB cpentDns, 12J96; Comlntono NatlnI G .. 6096. 1111depr. m.: 3.0%.
Has IIbOUt 4,700 S11*- OIrgn & dEdoni atm 9.4"" of CDITI'IOIl
R:Q (:wi) ProJ:y). Ctmwl., P .... IfJd CEO: WiiD A. Wl!Il. Inc.:
DE. Ad,*,.; EI PD1D Etwgy 811i:finG'. 1001 LouisianI St. HotdIon,
TllQ:I11OO2..Till.; (713)420-2131.1m.m.t ..... pelWlVY.a:m.

EJ Paso's planned merger with CoastaI Energy should dose any day now.
Stockholders
and energy n:gulatDJ"S ap-

climb.
The Merchant
En"'RY business.
benefiting rom volatility In the no"""!
a
gas and eJectrldty
mari<ets.
remalns

proved
the transaction
several
months
ago, but completion of the deal awaits the
nod from antitrust
officials. Minor delays
are not uncommon in deals of this magnitude, and there are sJgns that approval

standout
quarters,

i"

are proving fnrltfu).

We 'riew this latest b-ansaction


favorF.., ably. Consolidation
represents
a broad
step forward In El Paso's plan to buUd a
1.64 complete business, with a .saUd presence at
1.8. every level of the natural
gas-to-power
1.10 supply dlaln. The combined entity would
~ be well posJtJoned to reap the rewards of
U$
rising gas demand for elee::lrldtygenera~
Uon purpases, partiQ.llarly as the construe'Hr lion of gas-driven power plants accelerates.
.1lJ In the years ahead_ Moreover, the SZl bU.n lion allstoc.k deal should prove hnmedJate.2' Jy ac:creUve to :share net, in
thanks to
.79 cost savings totaling some $ 00 million.
EI Paso's
profits should
continue to

,-

..

"""

f.::'

performer. In just the past two


the unit arna5Sed an operating

prolit of 5222 m1l1lon, roughltt.:, 0% above


its expected annual nul rate.
company
has qUickly buUt thJs business tnto a fine
contributor
to earnings. Importantly, however, EI Paso's l:!i-tenn
gnrwth should
continue
to be fait y broad based, with
each division contributing. The utlllty side
of the business
delJvers consIstent
I::aSh
providing resou.rce::!II to invest In the
nonregulated
operations.
Growth
rates
will Uke1y recede sarnewhat next year. as
commodity
prices moderate and EJ Paso
beginS to face difficult comparisons to this
year's stellar showing. Nonetheless, .shareearnings advances In excess of 15% seem
attainable
over the pull to ZOO3-ZOO5.
EI Paso stock i_ nmked to outperfOnD
the year-ahead market. Mo~ver,
the
Coastal merger (oot yet included in our
projections) would enhance 10,-term
pros
pect.s, making these shares a ecent seJectlon for 3- to 5-year capital-gains potential.
Lars L. Bainbtidge
December 22. 2000

now,

(AI B_d
l1li .-age
sr- IIl.Il!danding ~ Nul dlWi:lendm.l.1Ig aboot J~
2OIh. (Clln mllions, .dpstMl b lid. spit.
tmJugh 1Mi, Ihen d&rt8d. EJcM:1e5 IlIIf nmex.bout Mm:h SII. DiwUends paid Dn a CD Data .. 1999 reIIed5 h! "*VB" wIh
recum'ng IImI.: '86'. d~; 119,d$Z.S3; W fa.
1cl r;I.IlInllllY,".
Jill):.CIdDbw.
Sun ... 1999EPS.,,~.
37. Nut urnings; ~
due ...
"'*Y.
DMliend mil",*,Mifd plan nai!ablll.
ID 211XL..
IJIt ~
~
r-... F.CMI ...... III lIlUbJI fmI 5IllllIlZ5 bIIIt'IelllCl_
IIIlI iI,.. .........
~
d
u...
TH( PlalSt1l1S
liIOTR
[ OR N [RItORS Oil ClMISSKJNSHEREIN.TIl&~
... il.
CMIl" 1IOIl~
~l_.
P"I
pRaI.~
..... IIIIoI\..lIMIIb.......
"..lI"tIedrmil:,......~.~

.......,.br~ ...... ..-...."

f yr.
'yr.

...
. ". ... ... ... ...

719.1

'7182

101.0
103.0

15.'
35!. 311'6
3.4'

l.l.B

624.0
81"'.9

,,. ...

33"

"',.

2!l5J

...,

,.,

-s:; ,,-~n,..

12

... 1U1. RETURIiI

I--

D1c.31
will be forthcoming. For one tllIng. Coastal
1511
563&0 has been 'Sheddq assets (most recently.
1252
5182.0 retail service stations), suggesting dlscus058,. s10ns with the Federal Trade Commission
2443

..
....
-, ... ...
'917

"
20
16

199. '995~6
1997 199M
11.87 13.90 2723 U.13
2.11
4.11
3."
1.64
1.8$
'23 12.
.66
.10
.13
.76
1.DB
3.38
"3
153
10UZ
16.37
11.53
9."
7l:2r--mo- 1lO:lO m:r.r120:
,8.5
lIT 11.1
14.7
17.6
.n
1.01
Sl
J2
,2'/,
351
3.4'
169! 10311.0 3010.0 5638.0 5782.0
12.3' 13.4' 13A\
27"

,.~
..."
17ll'iii fflf.li

n...

_._.

169.0
3O!l!l.0
16.0
2513.0
~1.0
32M.a
1825.0
2155.0

1662.0
74.0

PIIst

--

Book Yidue

..."

545.0

90.0
733.0
49.0
337.0
1209.0
724.0
812.0

ANNUAl. UlES

,... ,...

32

, ",
...
".

12.11

052.5

'13.0

Cammon Stadt 233,9611.803 shs.


[.Ill" d Cap')
u of 11lIIOI
lURKEr CAP:
blJliwo (La_ Cap,
CURRENT POSmoN

..

1993

d8.9
631.1

.....

UMapita1iad AnnU81nm1Ils $Z7.o niL

"'SA

..
.."

'00

- -

,..,

..,---

..

...

11..
I.a

" II

I,u""il

....

'!l4~~ 166.~ 189~


8 Paso NallJral Gas company began 1990 1991 1:Jb
supplying natural gas to Ille _
IXJIIl20.51 11.70
10.n
plex of its namesake city in 1928. In Mardi
,00
.. 9
2.38
1992, !he "'"'Pony "'nduc1ed an initial pub2>7 1.41
1.116
..
.. .50
lie otfenng 01 aboo! 15% of Its stock. A
month latar, Burlington Resources Inc., 8
sn .90 319
Paso', pall!flllXllllpall~ allhe lime, distIib- 2!JO
12..1
U7
utod the remaining 8 % to its own stock 0214 ---m4 1m
..
.. 13.3
holders. ,.. part 01 a restru~uring in AugUSl
..
.of 1998, the company reinlXlrpexatad as 8
J!
..
.. 351
Paso Energy COrp.... ion, and a p;pe~ne
subsidiary assumed the original name.
1293.3
7351 80'9
CAPrJAL STRUCTURE d .ttl3OlllO
3351 321'6
30.3'
ToIa' DlbI $7441.0 mi. Due .. S YnI $3030.0 mil.
1QU
132
IT Debt $5616.0 mi. lTlntel'lSl $425.0 mi.
1&6.4
76J
Im:IcIdis $&2S mlGn iI prIJfrmid C8Clriills iull81
22. ..
38."
31"
by EI P1150 Energy CapllaITrusts'
end N.
(TlQ,1 imIrect a:rwnge' 2.3x)
9.5'
(62% arC8t1't)
1H' 12,,",
lUsn,

-"

'1'/,1JIl

.....

Irwtll.ulional DlICilitans

....=.. ""

,,JIl"

a a z

......

lel:l!SSiM

l~

:0::.-

Target Price Range


2003 200" 2005

54

R.....

...,

1.3%

6"'.2
30.3

.,-

p_

Ann'lDtal

lnaidllrf

43.4
30.7

mV'D
TIll

(198

'C'".".

PROJCTJONS

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 8 to FJH-6
Page 30f6
,

1lIIlII""

=~
..,
'**

WlL

Campuy's F.... c:illltrngtll


~d'I Prk_ StibllItJ
PI1cl!GrwUI ~
E.....inp PNdlctabilly

I '.

,II.

B+
75
T5
85
I I

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 8 to FJH-6
Page 4 of 6

l:mllT
PliICE

ENRON CORP. NYSEENE


1IIE\JIIESS

3 '-"

SAFIY

21l1e.e:11W41'39

High:
lCIW:

1l11""

~GENDS

".0.

c.'lfl

7.6
6.'
fblr'"

12.5
7.7

'.6
6.'

2ob-I'"

,003-45 PRDJE~S

Prim
Gain
Return
185 ("120~t me;

17.3
13A

19.7

23.6

14.1

173

22.6
17.5

.....

29.4

2!JO
'60

- -- - -- ,,.

........
,.'"

2.far'

-for-1

r_fVIIt Price RanS2003 200. 200.

90.8
41.04

28.0

19.1

60

-.

L_--

120
(+&0%
13'"
"'aide"
JF.A.,1JA5
000
0 0 0 0 0 0

D~'.Ion.

....::::....:::me7~ ~~,,,."" 468:


"" .......
S

88118130187

...

......

.-

InstItuUoN' Decl.ions
1Ol.
:l52

p~

'edj.,:

~_"""I'<'UIlIII

AMl,ToIII

RATKJ

2ob-'

119,

IIIV'D
48 4 (,,,,,,\I])I~LAlM
Z2J
~oo 3 29 lI.D 0.7%

P(

P VI

al9l

2-1a!'" ~

9 7 8 2 BOt

18.5
11.1

i:b:, ~:~I<'
s..n~

T[CHN1CAl
LllIltl!lIl\ncm
IEIA .!II (1m_ MIlkS)

l't

7.6

75

IQI.'

Pen;ellt

..

---.

---

t.,

,.,

nl,Il I"

,,',
I'

I'

II

'

".,,1"
..

" "

I.'

11""1"""'1,,'111"""'1,,,,

.......

- --

..........

'6

.. Tot R[1WII11IIQ
1 yr.
3yr.

82.5
230.1

12

4.8
111.7

51'1'. 251.8

13."

19804 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 199~1~3


199. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 IVALlElIE PIIl.IIC. 03-45
21.'19 28.111 21.31
15.19 15.07 24.ol1
32.62
33.39 1Ul
'US
".lIl 11.85 1819 26.04 32.57 "2< ~1l6 11171 1'US 1lMIn .. PI" Ih
1>2
1.15
<9
1.00
.92
121
1.75
1.89
1.18
2.46
7.1S
228
W
111
'.08 1.31
'.62
.01

.01
.DO
.7!
n .93 n to, 1.18 US 'S ~pII'",
12
.52
'.03
<'S
..30
31
.31
31
.31
.46
.!O
.5Il
.sa Diw'lb Ded'd pi!' III C.
.52
31
31
.32
.13
3S
3S
.'3
.'6
2...
.90
.$4
1.",
3.30
US
OS
1.65
.49
.76
1.38
1.75
1.45
114
1."
2."
'-"
U, 10.~ '1.80 17.31 1l1S floak
4.45
3.69
a.t!
3J15
2.73
30S
. 01
411
5.03
1Jl3
5."

" ...

...

,.,

..

,s

103

.111
'110

5.6';

,..-

...

.-

,M,
NMF
5"

..

.w~1

.MF
'MF
5.3'

31.
2.30

...

404.1:11 "."

191
113

lI.

..

...,

Z2.'
,.32

,.so

." ,"
,

19.1
'19

,..,

tin .!!

'"

."

4.11

tilj1.76 1115~
31.8

2.'"

""'.

,... ,...

", "".

..,

"""' .....""
Cunant Liab.

ANNUAl. RATES

....."....

-""~I

.......,
6101

tnl\.

v_ 36..5""
=~
_.
"Cash FIo....
Book

c'"

-,.
'"7
1118

'119

. 1lS

...

12.0%

.,59

PIsI

511L
23..
1.5%
8.0"

6.1lS
15.os

... lIar

199'
1111

'999

lOll'

.....
"""

1197
'191
'199
2000

17102

.......

Elt'd'l7 ...

2O.S'l

22.o"

29."'
'
U,

,..,

'f.OS

llIlMTBIJ~~'
111<31 Ju"J/l
00<.31 r.,
S34< 325'
5806 5672 211273
l682
6557 11320 7701 31260
7632 9672 11835 10973 <0112
13145 16886 30007 249BZ
257S11 27l1li 2mIl
~PERSHAIIE
"
Full
I.dl Jull3l S.. Jll 00<.31 lu,
.28
.19
.11
.81
.23
.32
.24
.2<
1.01
21
.33
."11
31
1.1B
:zJ
.<0
.3<
.3<
.31
US
..u .39 .39 .42 US
QUARTRLYDIVI)EII)S PAIl C.
1,,31 J.. .30 S.. .30 1Jo<~' ru,
.106
.106
.106
.113
.43
.113
.113 ,119
.46
.119
.119
.119
.125
.<B
.125
.125
.125
.50
.125
.125
125

.... 21'.

2101

,n

....

"" '"

2000. And volatll1ty ln both the gas and


power markets
helped
cm1tribute
to a
healthy 1ncrease-75%
year
to year-In
worldwide: total physical and transport
volumes of gas, to 26.3 trillion Btu equtvalent per day. Continued energy price volaUllty. which should remain In place for
some time. would benefit Enron as buyers
and selleJ'S Jncrea.s1ngly
turn to the energy
giant for 1ts knowledge of, and prowess In.
market making.

m'

.. ~

UI50l

-,U,
U!lI

.....
,....
"" "'....
'''II
,.... ::":~""'"

~~J

___ Tulnt

...

US

IIIJ

"150
'US
'1.Ill
....

R.un m TetId Cep'


RIUIIlIII!Ilr.E"

-..

......

"

Eq

""

UDh' ...........

wtIdJ .-s fer lie deIiftry of


higb-blndWidII (....
& cs.Ia) coMIlt. Fgn.opL: 25" d _lei. "!I!I
dep..... : fi.2". HIS IMI' 7.100 IrtIJ*, 27,000 ItIt*h. OftL, on.
& ~
plan hokl
of c:ommon (3Q) prtDly~ CMnn... CEO:
K.L lAy. Pr-.: .I.1l StillinliJ.n:..; OR. Adna: 18 Srdh S......
HclustIn, lX T7OQ2. T": 713-853-1181. II'IIIIIrMt:....
-.on.ccm.

6.1"

read,

the required

technology and manpower alin place to smoothly


expand
Us
stab e of offerings. At yearend 2()(X). the
notional value
goods bought and sold
through EnronOnllne wI1\ lIkelt. ex<eed
$40 bllilon. up from a~te
$9 bUUon as r1 mldMarch,
.

or

The market r....bandwidth Is anoth ...


growth engine. The Broadband Services
unit 15 buUdIng .. nationwide 8ber optic
network to deliver hlgh-bandwtdth
media
content such as video st.ream1ng and conr.... ncI"ll. Enron Is "Iso helplng customers

hedge unexpected
and sU~ly

movements In the plice

of, and demand

for. bandwidth.

Althoug not yet proIIlJlble. this busine55


should get a boost from rising W1derlylng

Launched
in 1999. this plaLfonn faces
competition.
but remains the only global
prtndpal-based
system that allows users
Lo view real-time
prices for a varlety of
commodities.
TIle number
of different
products sold online has tripled over the
past few months, to about J .200. Current
offerings include pulp and paper. In addltJon to the mainstay
energy commodities.
with many additions likely to follow in the
years ahead. In fact. Enron seems to have

demand. Industry sources expect this market to more than trlple-to


$95 bUllon-~
2004. In addition,
a recent
pact. Wi
Blockbuster
Video wUl fadUlate
the ondemand
viewln,.e. of broadband
content.
comparable lO
-quBlity video.

2,; 'll2.
'113, '12"
'1M, '119,
"'; de;:.
~~
(8) DilIIed earniI;s. Ea*Jd_ 21; '96, 23CI;
'97,29;;
dS1.42;
"98, 1;
special iIIms: "83, 1S4: '84, 1,; '85, 11$1.43; Next .-ni~ repan du. ... ,Ian. CC) Not
'86. ~;
'ST, ~;
'M, 44.; '89, T8j; "90, dNd m1l.
Fob. B. Goes a .bDUl Fib.

CI lIIIll, 'lllWi.ft
~
1lt[ PUllU5.HERIS fIIJl RE
d. -J tie II!IJRIllUt, 'lIInd

.4,

_..
......

The nascent e-c~


application.
EnronOnline.
is growing
rapidly.

Q_..........~.....l~.."~1t"'; ~',

IAI
nual figihL

DW4.....,
(W)

U" ...
W""",CoF'1\ln1)

, ",....
3.,,,
." '" .,.U"*"" ""

Upwardly spiralint natur-al gas prices


have been a boon or Enron this year.
Prices rose sharply, espeda11y In Nonh
America. during the lint nine months of

.'11 ... ,. ......


R_PlERoio

-.....--

,.....

""

,~,

.",

- "" hi.'

-..:
.-......U,
"""

6O'

."

C.' """"",1*'
'ftIuI,.,. "

19.B
".1
1.13
1.36
~ ~~ 1.8,
2.11;
2."
1."
13'
9189.0 '3289 20173 31260 &0112
11.41 In
1.''1.
53'
'.R
431.7 74.0 1llll.0 w.o 111I~ lIS
465.1 5115.0 52<~ .... 0 057~
"21 ,SIt
.. 20.0'4 6.91
:13.910
ttIS
2.6%
HI 1.8,
3.8"
5."
21'
B.' 211.0 d2Il6.D d114.o
'96~
Wl3
3349.0 5192.0 1357.0 1151.0
,293S
~1B.O
3165.2 3723.0
1ll48.0 9!l10.0
10.0%
61%
,.Ill
9.0"
6.6'"
7.4"
14.1'
13.6"
.n 10.1)11,
'3'
is. '1%
3.0'1. 5.B'
'.Ill
51'
56'
the woftl;I's .rgal: J1opIi:. IWtMrt.
COflIbdiDn,

111
3110
'-"I
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of I{]INQD
13165 13520 6325.0 19n.o 8984.0
Total tNbt $13781 rril DH III 5 V... S2iB9 miB.
12.ft,
5.0'4
6. '4 15.5' 13-"
LT IIItarnt sns mil
IT out "06&4 nil
355. 366.0 360.' '511 "13
(TDhll irnInsI r;unq:ge: Ull
(49% Df Cap'l)
1115> 1110.0 26<1
363.6 417.3
Le ....
UIICIIJ/\lInd Annual .-ntu $266 mil.
20.1\ 263'
26.910 21."
26.1'10
P... ioIl UablltJ Non,
PIlI Stock S 1127 rriI. PM Dtv'd sac d.
1.410
UI
n
'1%
zsa,OlXIIh&. (S4OOO Iq vall fbIt .. Jr. Pt:S.,~.
'2841 d41o4.7 d516.1 11189.4 au
10200 com. shl~ 1,330,OOOsltl. S10.!lCIC'I/nl.,al)10UI 2458.9
2'B,.
2105.1
sbIB $100, CY. 'II ZI.304 com. Ihs.
('''ofCap~
1856.1 ,92lI1 2546.6 2623.' 2S8ll3
CumrnDII StocII 746.550,863 5hS.. I..' .....
~
asd11v.S11DO
6.''4 6.8" B"
5.7'4
9.8'1.
10.4'1.
13.n. 14.5%
IIARKET CAP: S5IJI bliliDn (urge C.p)
2."', 3n
'.01;
'II'
CURRENT PQSmoN
,OS
'MF I"
65"
IWIL)
BUS .. ESS: EIWDn CorpcqIian is on. elf
CoSh ......
1197
'08
Rea!i'IIIbl.
7615 tegIdd rmurat gas .!Ill elltc:h:ly e:tlrIIpIni!I. 119 CCI'e proftI na:
2893
lllentDry (Avg Cst)
514 5911
104' ExpImtiln end ProIIlH:tD'I, 3' (ownlld 53'" cI ElI1ln 011.. Ga
04.,
2415
2821
Olhe'
Ca.); Gu Pipein. Group (ncUlel PorIIIInd Ge.-I). 34";
C&Jmtnl AMmo
10806
5933 """"m!i
Wholnalil E-VY OpcnIilns end s.w:.s. 66"; RNI EnIrgy
2380
2104
53!Kl
an.!bl.nll SInica tlnJUgh Iber
Oo.. lJuo
1001
3117 SIni:is. -31. AIID ~
,.04
0Ih0r
8595
~
'MF

'.01;

..... .....

Jr.

Projected
eanUnss pins of 35% per
year make neutraUy ranked Enron
stock a solid choice for 3- to 5-year.
risk-adjusted returns.
D<mber 22, 2000
Todd A. Schwartzman

.. ,.,.., ......
bout""'"
ZO"~~Stock"a rtl:.st.bl1If
20, Do'
Sept. 20, Dee.. 20 .
Div'd .. mestnerd
pIIIn ~~.
Pib Crod........
(D) In ml"iJns, ~. b ftJclllp(lIs.
Earnlnp PncIdI.IllIIJ

rt5eIRIlI. '1dIIII..,..
is DlIlIiIIBIIrarIl
~
~
la be I8IItR IMlI5 pMi!lllllhauil
fORM'
ERRORS OAoa.-SSlOMSH(AflN. llli!p.aai:lnis!Ih:IJ1II
~~~,_lJ.-tI~
.. .., pIkftd. ......
dIW ...... I"II!IIl b!llB'llll'5l_ ~.,
...... U -.:nit~.

.. ~ U1d.
"'1fTIII1ISe.
a,.,.
~.
plaEl

I.

SO
SO

to
:

II.

II-

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper #. 8 to FJH-6
Page 5 of 6

KINDER MORGAN INCNYSEoKII, I~coo 47


TWEUIlESS
SAfETY
TECHNICAL
IllA

....'

2 ... ",1llI.lIl
3 "".'0>
2 ..... lJlWl

O.OD .....

al

t':'

-...

50

11.4

Law,
7.'
LEGENDS
1s.D

"C.v.

i:t.~~~t

111)

l ... 2~

11.~
9A

r.- p

13.3
92

12.5
9.3

20.0
12.4

17,9
13.8

.. ...

202
13.5

Pi RATIO

27.5
18.0

1M

..,.

.. ......

I. ",,'

IlWtituUonal DKIIfkms
g.-

., ,

,.1','"

'1\

,,1 ,."

..

. ...

.... . .

...

""'""

...

.66
<'.
6.14

.68
219
6.<0

."
.44

:12
.68

.3!i

..

.58
.44
1."
6.98

20.4ti

Z1.1

.47
.44

'-00

8.<0

l~

2U.41

2U.4J

6Jo.

19.5
1.58
8.8'/,

113
.6.
13.'
S"
1.211
4.111 '.'S
'33 '31
4.81
S....
".6\
T"
S~'
CAPfl'Al STRUCTURE.. oIlI3MIG
latal DllbI S3!35.5mll. D.1n $ ,,. S15751Ji1l.
LT o.bt 13835.5 mi. LT tntenst S27D mil
131

.....

Includes $275 nit pnMmd..anin 01 capilal

(Total merest 1!II'Nld: Uxl


(GS% af Clp"Q
Annual Rentals $65.2 ml.

lan_, UrIClIpllaliud
Pension L1ebllity NOM
PIlI Stock None
Cannon Stoel 114,409,313 ills. (31% of
uDf1GB11.
MARKET CAP: ISA tlIMk/n {Mid ClIPI
CURRENT POSrrJON

-...

,... ,...

c:.:'~1ItS

306..

132.2

!iO.3
SIlO.7

......

RM:.Mibl.

("vg CAt)

~ntDl}'

1123.5
93.D

Cu~nI""'"
AccbPII)'lble
Debt"""

ml33

CunenllYlb.

2619.5

489.4
3072

'''''9

ou-.

c:.p'l)

26.4

42.3.

'9.3

80.9

.....

-m:ii

5Il1.0
1019.1

210.1

i88:3

fi46:I

-..r.

330.7

J1
AT
'-'"
8.S2
,,,,,

"'
U,
$I

"".

17.8'
21.9
19'
31l'

U,

d12.9
14D.1

200.1
7.7"

,,,

'.0'.'
8"

..

'"

.,..

Sl
<13
8.08

J!i

1.O!i

2.14
U2

.81
280
8.94

sr

J1

.as
1.71

'4

122
.6T

,.,

1.43
.10
,..

...
...
,~.,..,..
...
,~......

'I. TDt.lIE11IIIl111D

,II ..

,.,

.13
6.48
.2.82

12.

15..49
1.88
.98

US
1.JI
.20
1.10

.as

.&I

.~.

'06'
422

2000 2001

1.10
.18
114
17.74

,'""

.......

2'"

CI VAllIE

4'
11i1.T
03.4

UNE P\.I .. IIC.

10.U

,U,

11.44
015.44
41i.U4
1~.1 112

Ean*Ip ....

11 Oh'dIDld'lfpwlll-.
,.211
1U5

""',"'"",
.....,
.... .....

....

.'"
80' '"

'"
88'

!is'

....

BUSIllESS: K.nIer Morgan (fomwt,o K N E'*'IY) is dMnf.t


na1nl (IllS tornpMy and ~
till IIfVISl ~
IIIiI:It.rmled ~rtnership. Pro tonna 1999 oprnting ft;DM dln'l'8d from:
........ ga hnsportm;Jn
n:l 1ItcngI, 86'10; l:aI gB dabItDn,,,",; i*atnI pipeinM, 5'Il1o;m.d1ant pcMW geNnlDn, 3%.
Utlge1:l will ""*an 01 & Ga Corp., 1994; 8CqUQd MidCon,

......m_

---:-~II)
.....

,..., '" .........

..............
,.,... '",m

... -

d.,.

d8'

--.._ ..

......
::: ::

.. 3.'.." 28'
...
'"

,U

"
12

..

, '" """'
1.1'

..'_I.....

'''' ""
''''

r '
~
01-05

%7.10

R"'.IIII'M

"Cnh_ ... ",

1.19
21.13
tiII.tiO
41-'0>
'w
'll.l
"-91 "'"
1,.
15.5
19.7
2
11.'
39.'
.'Il ......I'lERIICI
JS
J2
.92
129
.99
121
1.'11
2.3,
A'lIMI' ~~ YIIid
4.n~ 3....
5.0"
'l'
'.8'
'2'
~
zsrs
39!i..!
491' 1081S 1103.4 1....32 1145.1 .357.B tr45.5
391'
1UI '9.01 11.2" 120'.' 104.8' 12.9'10 '2'
12.n. 27.9% 24.11 ,Ull
144.3
lJ5
21A
2.2
262
S12 !is'
198.
!iO.'
lI.
243
83.8
m TO. m
211> 111.6
S28
'31
37.6' 312'
31.8'
;,s." 36.0'.' 31.5\ 39.0'.' 16.9'
".Ill InalMTuRMI
,1>,
1.6\
5n go; 3.2'4 4.1% 4.4\
S~'
U"' 1ft
2..
2H
dl203 d526.o d861.4
NIl -.
10.1
.26.1
Cop' (lN1l
leog- T.. DoOI (100II)
23U 334.6 315.6 42J.T 5!i3.' 351~.O 35&.3
158.6 220.0
ms
196.4 '1U
4343
!i28.8 613.1 1223.8 1665'
188'
<02'
~ R8Uft on TatII C.'I
8.3"
6.04" 88'
e.4' 8.0'.' 3.8'
T.O' 7.5'
11!1\
12.1'10 12.1'
10.0'
126'
114'
4.6'
lS' ReIunl QI1 SIlr. Ed,
S",
RftIIrIId to ClIIII ~
~
5.1'
8-'"
1.1'
1.6'
AI Dll'dI ~ NIl PraI
!iK
82\
m &.2'4
44'

'.!i2

..

...
32

......

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 99'- 1995 1996 1ii7_
22., 2O.ll 15.06 15.08 16.38 16.71 18.41 18.19
63.,
21.18 2621 26.19
31.76 44];6
1.92
1.08
.20
US
2.20
204
2.42
2S2
m '.88
.>5 1.48 ,.&I
'.45

19U

00
54

20

.,

'00

II

"

1'1"

.... ...

P.-rc::.nt 1!1
.... ,...
10.0

" "-

111249

..

- -- - -- -- - --

",

I'

1111'111,11"

11,1",11' 11,1'11. :~~

Target Price Range


2003 200' 2005

49.8
20.5

'"
.'

1CD11t Xl2.

22.3

0.4%

lID

2.'.1
'2.2

40.3

I.

.If_A."'JA&
00120
1 000
o 0 0 0 000 1 0
00'110022

DIV'D

3-lar-2

(~'!l .~

100

36.0
24.1

sh

AIIII'ITNI
RI'IIlm

GaIn

:::"!IrJ:

s.,..,

Insider OK"iDna

.......

341('nii ..,m)I~ElATrIE
2 32
,U

Pi
RATIO

o~ ':. .... ~rlEtWJn

2001-OS P.OJECllONS

,.

P~CE

'10
115
AI

'M

2105

....

215

.'"

11M

a'"

,,,
1$5

".Ill

..

'''',
WO

7.'"

11..5'1

,.'"
''''

Jan. 118: K....


Morpn, 10199. 118 depr. ndIt: 2.3". tin about
3,200 ~~
&,500 ~
I<iIIIIr III'Id Morpn
DWIl21.2% and 6.2'1. of sb:k; AIR, 6.3"; Fi'Ii \JnioIl, s.n.; (3.UI
prmy). a..inan
& CEO: Ri:::hft D. KftW'; Pr.aIent Mimi V.
Mgan. Inc.: ItS. AdIna: 500 ea_, .. 1000, HccInlfl, TX
n0D2. TIIIiIphone; 713-369-8000. InWnIt ~'

we-s.

......
.....

Kinder Morgan posted gains In al1 ~roves


their merge.-.
rowth in demand for e1ectr1c power
segRlents in the third quarter. though
should boost
eandngs
in two cUvIthe
prof'lt
increase
at
Natural
Gas
-S.""
Si0R5. NGPL is fadng some excess c:apadPt~jne,
KMTs Jargest divislon, resulted
"CBsh FIlJw'"
7.0%
7""
12.0%
8.5'11
so ely rrom lower depredation
expense, In ty In Its biggest market. Chicago. toough
...
~~
53
33
other areas, profit gains ranged fJUn 61 % Its finn transport capadty Is currently fuI11.0%
II.."
ly subscrlbed. In the next rew year.;. hDwat the power generation and miscellaneous
lllI.lmRLUElBIllE! (10./
eelsegment to solid profits in local gas distrl ever, around
10,000 megawatts of gasJ.,JO SioJo Dee" Yeu button, m~red
need power plants should come on stream,
with a lass in the prior1197 490.0 357.9 5'5.1 Tll2.1
Kind ...
~
perlo.
The com~Y's
shore of using gas carried by the
.111 166.04 1039.5 1045.7 11362 ~~.17.11
der Morgan Energy
annen'
Income,
Morgan's
power ~nerat1on
division
has
1- '01.7 4lIII.2 01.1 469J
signed
contracts
to build two gas-fired
aoout
$28 ml1lion, remained
about flat
~5
ANNUAL RATES

...........

.....

.. J

P...

Pat

11Y1'L
10.0%

2DOO
2101
eel-

,.
1197

1191
2DOO
2101

..."
CaJ.

1198

.997

1198
1199
29DO

Esfd '17-"

" -2.,,,
......"

_v ....

nri.
13.5%

"r~'

480.5 S49.11 ,.9 . 195..


IW
SO
IT!
7DI
EARNIti$ PER stWlf; ..

mo

1Ia.I' In.3t SIllJD llec..ll


A3
23
.'S1
.80

1.83
.'S1
.26
.26
21
1.10
.36
2
.11
.98
25
.40
.23
U.
22
..lS
1.$,
Sl
.a . .45
lIIWlTBU.Y
D_1WlI
..
F~'
Y..,
Ilar.31 JnJU $1tII.SD Dc.31
.173
.173 .173
.111
.ro
. 8
.18
.11
.187
.73
. 87
. 87 117
20
.78
.20
.2ll
20
.05
.65
.05
.05
.05
.05

CAI.................

"'.' .... d_:

EJCI. 1'IOlnCU.mg itIIms: '84, dS1.49; '85,


$1.52; '86, 51; '11, tIO;'18, 30; '88, 10,.;
'90, SUO; '91, 41.20; '94, d46; 118,dUij.
e ZIIlID.YIUt UJe

with the June 2000 qU8tt.er, but jt was


double that of the interstate
pie
systern sold to the Partnership
last
mber.
The companYIl interest
In Kinder
Morgan Energy should drive earnings
growth in 2001. KMI currently receives
about 59% of the Partnershig"s
increases
In earnings
and cash dJsU1 utlons, and
solid growth at the Partnership
seems as~
sured next year. thanks to about $800 mH
Hon of acquJsJtions that closed in 2000 and
a $1.15 hUnon deal that should close in
January. Beyond. that, we think the Part~
nershlp
may be able to probably acquire
some assets that the FTC wiU UkeJy requJre Chevron or Texaco to divest before it

Ir-.._ .....-~ ..

/r"...'...

II ~

.. ."

merchant
with
KMI

f8pOII

power

ment fees. and NGPL will

wUl probably decrease .


Sigourney B. Romaine

!IN'd pyml d~:


15th aI Feb.,
FKMl m-. is 1IIIIlII1inell
... _
~
tot.ntliItII~ ifill is 1I'WiIIelI ...........
II

melI

...

-rkIhJ.""....

CII

II

Its pipeline.
as partners.
and manage-

ship the

__

l:Jecember

gas.

22. 2000

~~

Stack" dee S1abIIIf


Prk:e GrOWI1Il'IirUltMcl
&'1111. PndidabIItr

..,~irumII_., III ~

IIiIdrWIir ~

near

The power w1l1 be marketed


by KMl"s
partners,
with
little
risk
to
kinder
Morgan. The company plans to build eight
more plants over the next Bye ~.
The shares are a timelY:Je&r-ahead
commitment. But at about
times next.
year's
shanH1et
est1rnate.
KMI"s stock
price discounts
some of the strong eamIngs gains we foresee. Double-dIgit JBlns
will likely conUnue, but the PIE m tlple

28. ~

JIIi'a'llIlOri: ..........

plants

::::1l0rearnelectric
ut1lldes
deveJopment

9T lcr In miIi:lna, Mljus1Ml


..,._P.,.....
Nut tIIiIs.
due"
January. (II dS3
Nut
b splb.
div'd mtg. abou1"n. 20. Goes D.tIou1 Jan.
(D Refteds ,..-g ....
N:JG.

~Iif::'~' ORANYERRORSOIlOlllS3ONSH{R[II.TM,...i:JnissHtrb~

THPUIlU'StI"RISM>lR{
-J lit fIIJI'CIlIUCII!'"

Ii.

F~'

pipeline.

UIlI.
C1p1l'l

paUi.

45
1'0
55
:

II.

I.

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 8 to FJH-6
Page 6 of 6

High:
Low:

)IIRElAlNE 2 17 DIV'D
Mtdiilll: IU JIP,E RATIO.
YlD
1.6%
37 PiRATIl 31 9 (T..-og,".1

IRECENT

WILLIAMS COSo NYSEWMB

IPRICE

7.5
5.0

6.'
3.

6.5
04.2

6.8
....6

10.6
6.0

11.1
7.'

14.8
62

19.5
142

28.7

36.'
20.0

18.1

....

"..
28.0

Target Pric. Rangll


2003

211.'

2004

2005

LEGENDS

100
80

fkw" P ~

11..5 ~ "[alll

..
50

3-for-;!

40

,.
32

'I",r

..

.,' "

20
12

..

........ -

'

1 'fl.
3 yr.

!rlyr.

....
..,

1992

1993

10.

Sl
.26

=~

CommDn Stod; 440,014,536 n.

(38% d Cap1)

.. or 1Q1JtllO

IIARKET CAP: 116.3 billion (urve C.p)

'''ILl

CURRENT
POSITION 1.

c.ih

1tH

Aas

503.3
1628.2
(Avg Cat) ~ {

161.4

112.'

71J
24.6'
42~

110.0
26....

CU~IIIAsIets
AI:a!a Pap,.
Debt Due

3532.1 6516.6 88682

::1Il1..illb.

~~:~

1158.2
1443.3

ANNUAL
flATU,ut
d'drqt(plrSllI 1IYn.
Rewnua
8.5'"
"CashRow"
13.0%

2049.9

2705.4

1514.8 3468.6

~m..1 :jr....

PlAt IEst'd..
tll'IJ.'15
17.0% n.n
15.5% 13.R

un.

1G.O"

a.s"

2....5'10

DiYi:lWicII
9.5%
11.0%
7.~
Boot
V.,.
9.0%
17.0%
'1.5"
C111- QUARmu.llEVEM.ESfS.aJ full
Ndu .. ,.31 Jun.30 SeD3i' Dtc.J1 y..,

-,

162

U\

2113
16U

'283

.204.
1367.7

1539.8

d1D62

'1518.3
883'

16114.8

...~ ...,.~

1186.5 1220.0
6.9'
5.6'

'.20

1124.0

'0.35

10.11

15.1

21.

1751.1

35312

27.7110

".0'10

f50.3

411.4
355.'

...''''"

33.4'

10.1'

"",

d17.1

'301'
llO5'

9.0'llo

T'~ .>\

3.8'

U.

'"

53~

,>\

54

3.63

120
2.3~

~".....

'.0'10

8.'

d23U

.47

2."

..

'8>

'.0'10

19.11
184.f

.,~
."..,

4378.'

3121

U'llo

..",e...' ........."".. .....

.....

"." ......
....
d771.5

d9D7.1

50.0\ 44'"
2.31;
!.1%

,.....

"5.'~

11.1'10
5.6'10

...

10.4'

..", _ W_.Cop1\Wll
t,.
,_

~.3

loIIg.T_ DIbt (1nII)

,.~

UI

,>\

'n

1.
Shr.
511 R.Mw
1.1%

US

1ft _IoeonEq

4251.4

5:5852
32'
3.5'
NO'

i5DI

revenues.

R
es

Isulwere

stren~ ........
__
...

.17

l: ~
:~~
]
.3P
.

.:II
.Z4
QUARTERL'rDlVllENDSPAli.
endsr IIId1 Jull.3l Sep.JO Dtc.31
2001

c.1-

1.

1.

.1'4

1!1!17
.13
'ill
.15
.15

.114

.114

.15

.15

.13
.15

.13
.15

.13

.15
.15
.15

ZDDO
.15
.15
.15
.15
(At Pm!. egs..1hru. '96, then dl Exd uhDni

fHfPUllUStR

d".

-...cun.

seems

to

have

tremendous

development

potentiaO.
The Gas Pipeline unit bas continued
-- .OnDer. Allh_ "-0-'
h .~.to be a 5tead y ...-.
UIllIo
Is a slower-growth busln6~
Itsuallperatlng
profit

has

risen

around

7Q

ann

y over

quarter.

~ve

cost-cutt.Jng initiatives and ca~

~~~JtS::~g
~~~ue:f:':e~y
~;~ ~~tZss~~
we expect
fullyear
more-favomble
regulatory
environmenl

has com1.05 pleted a deal to buy certain


assets
.14 from TransCanada PipeLines
Limited.
f~ The package, which cost $540 m1lUon,
1.21 represents a total of around
225.000 bar
re1s per day of natural gas Uquids
(NeL)

also augurs
well fornmked
its future.
These
neutrally
shares have
slumped over the past three months,
attributable
partly. we think., to the market',
wu:ertalnty
sun1lWlding
the
sustainabil1ty of CllI'rent commodity prtl:e
levels. And even at the recent quotation. it

~:

productlW1

capacity.
2,000 mIles of NGL
pipeline. over 5 million bar.Q
rels of NGL storage capad!y.
and about 6
.54 bl1llon cubl c Ieet per d ay of gas process I~
.60
ng

appean

transportation

line growth we envlston out to 2003-2005

.60 capacity. This transaction

atlon potential during that time.

should not only

that

has already
UIC
eq uIty

much

of the

strong

bottom-

been accounted
for. leaving
wi t h belaw average a................
----'

bolster
the company's position
as one of Frederlck L. Harris. 111 December 22. 2000
(S1.99): '93, 3f; '95.16.13; '96. 4j, W, Z2f!; Nul. egs. rpt. IMe Jan. (8) Nul diU'.ntg. tIt. C:r.~!IY'sFlundlISl:'"IIh
&t
'85, (1~);"89, 6t!; 'IJO, 1a. (~~ 2Q, 25f!. Em. Fllb. 14. Goesex abl. M8rd1 12. ON. pnI..
5
I~rit:e Stabllt,
7D

__ n'IlIIIIIIllI"" fIII*d. .........

lSt:lfll:(~PONset(

7.5V.
110ft
7""

w-.. ~

pll'll (buts) 'M, 9; '81. (5f!~'92., 7,; 111,


(2'-). Ed nome.. gains (IDsRsJ: '84, 1~:
gains (loa) t. disc..ops.: '86. (S1.13Ji '81,B2; elates KIt: .... 25, Jun. 24. SIp. 1&.o.c. 30.
PrtctGrwlb
~
'85, (221!~'86,.($H6): '81, 12f:;'88. (S1_); '89. '88,~. "lk .-at for Will NIwk. ~vcssa.. (C) In miI.,.dj. b splls.
~E.nl1np Pi :I I
ID 1/110. VIIIIr lilt Pul*'Jlllwa. lilt. M ~
.-..
flllllll
~
110.. ..,.
fn:IIII ~
Il*IN lO lit r.-e lilt Ilo p-OWiIed wIhoIIi ~
t:f Illy Uld.

",., .. ~

t_

~~.r~~~~l~~

lJabllity reductlo~

~"'
~';:'-f1lu.";3"'_J".:::,;;."c-:Se",,,,j.3t~-,Dec.3"";'I't--;~,,,,,n;.jMeanwhile.
share net to soar
SI.3O.
I
theto company
1191

TaIII_C.'

Itdlnl.SIlt........
ell

oM.ft
"'"
MIS
1_

NOI"thAmerica's leading NGL producers, It


also provides aa:ess to the Western Canadlan
Sedimentary Basin (an area that

~:::bl:t~~
the fourth

.34
.12

!lane Ta....
,111 NltPrdl.....

The Williams Companies Is wen on Its


way to posting stellar results In 2000,
as earnings fm" the first nine months rose
nearly fourfold compared
to the same period last year. 1lUs can be attributed
largely
to the Energy ServIces unlt, as It benefited
fro m h'.he
"0
r ---~lty
u..11I1.-J
pr I ees and I n
creased gas and electric ~~erv:lfurces

40"'...

Clio

,19

an

II TIaIIED E~,
5195; IllAPCO, :wa. Sold
S~.,
1195;,tq'al et.n., '81. Spwi
W6ms ~
(IU'
ran!ly 85% OMIICI), 1lW9. HB 1roU~ 21,711] ...
, 14,115
1ItlI.
Ol[ I
own 2.0% at o:mnon (:MlO Plucy}. Clwrm.,
CEO & PQs..: Klih s.u.y. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 0.. W....
CentIr,
r .... OK 14172.let 91B-513-2CIlXI.
web: ....

nues and rate-reJund

.2D
.19

.-C

....,

=:-~l:;;~as~~~~~~~,:
=~
=~
= ~7 =1 ==8~.4 ::
.32
.26

11.1
I3A

BUSINESS: 1M Wllilrns Companies bllSpUts n.....


ps
ItmJghout U.S . nd pft'OIsllll prtJduI:a II Mitwnt; pIlIn, SIIi
pmceaes natlnl on; CDIIdutts ...-gy mnelil'lll and tnldinll; pIGdIlces ethI:lICIt SIlls Md Mn'i:;a ~
aqaipmel1l; and lI'QWi:iIs
r.-.epli: vmo nnsmimon nationwi:ilL Bqht .-nailing 5C)II,
....
II KIm RiwIr~,
1M. AcquhI:I NlTll.i'lilg

~: :~ ~::~
b~;
1117

38,,)
11U

325.4

1111001.4 1020.6 1121.01266.64409.6

EARNllGSPERSHNlEa

-:.:

2001 .VAl.IEUIlEPlJl.liC. GUS


p.-M
J2.25
17.88 19.50 2U5 XJ5 R.....
U8 'Cah __ ""..
5.OS
2.25
2. 12
.t.25
.14
.39
1.
1.211 &rIIIfIgI ,*" ..
170
.60
.60
.II
.. Dlv'dlDId'd,.. ..
..,
3.99 7.97 iUS
11.51 look YIIlII pit' III
J1.JQ
9.70
12..67 1(,fS
4<S.IG
NM' _ .. ~_
......
, ... _
Z2.I
".1
frlMF
.;,;;: ....
RIIItiIt M: RIIio
1.A5
L12
~ .. ~ - ..... .,IMI......
1.5ll
11231 ,_
RMn_ (W)
,_
16583 ~.1
21U 19.51 Z1B 2UI
aI%

33.1'

3ot21.0 3571.7
1.1111. '.!'Ii

...

.... ."
.,~
f-='~~~-7.",,===;-t=::--'=:':!:'-='='::::~~:.L:;:,L...;;'J,.;;;:;S~~:=::7.=:::I:-"'::'=-1
~

=~
1948.5
3024.5

A!l

'24.0'"
822.'

II3CWII

252Ul
250B.2
~~~

ReceiQbM

..., 13.'...
...

4031
2104.1
22."

4.1~

..

1.19

15
2."
.58

1.'
1.41

11196 19~
1121 13.17
~ 2.63
1.01
1.05

TM

......

....

~ TOt RET1JAII11IIID

fC!RNtr(RIl:0R5

OROMISStOl'lSH{1lf".lIIIIo~~sh:tJJ"

"""'.~

.. ~.

~..,

....-

~-'~""Il5e.r.u,.n

pn.I.IIIIIdro'i~~-.icr

.. padII:l

I'.

100
40

bIItJ'
:

II:

II'

Docket No. P-03-4


Work paper # 9 to FJH-6
Page 1 of 9

o
o
o
N

a:
W

:E

w
o
w


24

BRU~CAD'

Prior V r C'"
:I: Nllt Ynr 01"

Earnings

Ea!Im.,. IIIIM .., "at

81"M..., . Hfgls

'Iloek
NIfIlIO'IIIUI

:.Rlnll

Srunswidl Corp
Brush Engineered MlIIM1als
B~n Mtwr Sink
.

B B Bllnco~
BsaUA.RE
8rG Inc

Ifill

BTU lnillmmional
BUCA Inc
trut*:eye P1n~ LP.
Budtm,e T echnolo Ie!!
BiQle Inc
Bu~el Group'A' .
Ing MaterIal' Hldg
BUrl~~~ Coat Fadory
Burlln on IndUSlrles
BUllingtonNorfhnSima F.
Burlington RlSourcflS
Burmlh C.strol pic AOR
Bush Indul b~~~'
Business Ob eell ADS
Buller Inltlmlllonal
BUtlerMlg
BUV.COMINC:
*BWAV Corp .
e.-tMdae Internet Solutions
*e-COR.nel Corp
C-eube Mlcrosyatem.
C&D Tscfmologfti.

irun

rf'P'
C~~.'"."".
Csb/e Des T

Cable & Wireless ADS


Csbl8tron System!!
C.blevlslon Sys'A,<
*Cabol Corp
Cabo! IRduslllal Ir
:t:Cabot Mlc:rolrl!lClronlca

Jr'C~;l!~~~
OH G"'
A'
nhi... .
CllcheFlow& Inc.

C. un.
hi 81
CecbJry Schweppes ADS
Cldance OI5lgl).Sy.
r:1..

Stock Splits & Dlvtdend,


"3-for-2,'99. II 3-'0'.2;."95.
20 3-loT-2,'95, '96:2for-1,'97.

--_.__

.......

B
8
8+

AI'"

Dc
Dc

Q4
Q4

Dc' C4
NR Dc' Q4
NR
Dc 04
NR M, 03
8Dc Q4
Q4
NR Dc
NR ~
O'
NR J
C2
NR
04
NR Dc 04
Oc'Q4
6
8+ Mt'~
So'
l'

0.50
0.35
0.53
0.55
. 0.06
0.18
0.23
0,22
0,"
0.39
0,62
dO.,.l.
0.21
0.98
dO.23
0.70
0,"

0.60
0.36

0,56
0,55
0.07

low

....

Guide

2DOO
Actwf StrMl &tImlt. Mllr). '01
", EPI Me.!
low
t,"

....

0.47 7
vO.41 2.72 . 2.76
0~3
...0.40
2
0.8'" 0.81
...1";75
1.B8 'UIO
0.'9 2
0,55 1
1.73~ 1.73
0.05 6
vO.
0.21 t 0.25
0.t6
1
.oAO 0.85 . 0.58
vO,oit
a.7St .0.78
0.23 1
0.22 7 vcO.19 0.52 0,54
4
,,2.81
2.55
gJO
,,1.65 1.53. 1.65
.37 5
0-.53 5
'1.60
1.5"
,,'.6oi
dO.85 2 vcI1.77 dO.5&. dlUO
0.15 3 vel.80
1.56' 1.58
101.37 '1.57 1.60
0.95 3
d025
2. PVdl0.12 Nil.
Nil
0.63 10
y2."3 2.52 2.65
O:lI.9 24
2.""
.2.88
N'
,,1211 2,84 2.6"
i},'4'9 3 v.to.40 lA9 '1.58
0.30 13 PYO.60 0.91 0.93
..0.91
0.80 0.60
02'
1,09 1
..3.63 3.52 '3.52
dO.21
vpd1.27 dO,15 dO.73
O,DB 1 PYdO.31 0.731 0.80
Nnt .0,01
0.01
vdOA3
0 ..1111 4
. \'0."6 0,"
'67
0.15 7
,.o~~ 0,54 0.59
,,1.1,. 2.oot ,'2.00
0:54 2
D.2D. ,. .. ,,0.18 0.02t '0,02
,,125
0.26 2
toi1
03
Y7,20 0.81. '0,99
0:0.;' 13 ,,2."8: J,Dlt 0.1.1
dO.BS
1 vtd5.12
.22t cl2.88
2'
0.38
2.00 . 220
"P~.~~
0,58
,,1. 2
2.25 2.27
0.39 3'
1.81 1.85
0.4" 1t
.021
1.07t 1.2.1
dO,DB
6
YdJ.31 110.251d022
0.41 1
,,3.32 1.77 1.78
0 ....7 0.48
0.11 1
.0,04
. ,,1.1:"1. 1.32 1...3
,"""DB.
~.4,.t 0."7
ii:20 11'

Y~~l:.

,....

2.30 11'
'0.80
2

1.83

3
1.73 .1
018 5.
0.61 . ,.
0.78. 1
0.51 7
2.37 . 5
1."8 :5
1."6 7
dD.89 3
1,54 .3
1.501 . 5
Nil 3
2.4" 13
2.07 29
.2.64 1
1.~5 .3
'.0.89 1"
0.60 1
3.52 1

Standard & Poor's

2001
Sir.

B- ~DI

Etllrllll .. Phr)

.......

HIgh

of Qnrw!h

. Low . EllL

3,05 2.9B
1.63' 1.80 1.45
2.00 2.10
2.05
2.204 2.20' 2.20
0.26. 0.31
D.22
0.75 0,75 0:75
1.D9t 1.09 ';09
0.75 0,75 0.73
2.M 2,61 2.35
1.7~ 1.85 1.50
1.74
1.84 1.65
3.01

'"

2
2

R.,..

R111.'110 II MII.I
. 14.

4.2&4

15
16

33,8

1 " ....

5
1
1
7
5
5
8
5
3
1

Annua1

36

456
190
39.9

. 70.5
2""

Nol
Tlngl"'.
9aoll

CIII"

"'-

IIISIlJl .CSJShrl
6.48
2.19
13.41'

10.05
15,67
.2,84

,p,

N.. ,

Month

1.67

.......

.......
,......

",

PriCI ZOOO Rqf


Nov'OO PIE 01'1
8

17.18
19.12

23

21.25

11

13.68

10.81
6.37
8.37
15.8'
30.87
12.62
.17;81
1.66
7,9S
13.56
1.31
25.31
"'0.81

1/.'8

2101
'/21
1/2'

51 lfJl
10 '1131
11 2/16
3D

2.16
4.37.
i:i:30
7.11
3:45
13 ,i21'
6
11.81
6 1119
9
7~~~
3
2.84
2.48
2;05
15
376
.8.21
12 3102
O.es
dO.17
0.56. D.6S
13
2.349
.d
3103
N18 . ''''5
1.56' 1.80 1.56
1.007
13.2 .. 2.90
5 1/21
13
0.25
15 '. 2.228
13.18
2.26
.9 12/16
OJJ?
1.75 1.75 1.75
, 820
.... 1/25
. '"
dO.20
....... ....... ....~
1.70
0.60
....35
NR
10 .1/25
Dc' Q4
2.80 2.96
2.70 13
9
9.100
18.68
0.l'0
17 1/19
B1.34 30, .22
2.065
16.09
2.91
Dc Q4
I,M
2."9 3.3'
9.45
........ 33.00
13
NR Dc
2.79. 2.79 2.79 1
6
4.769
8. Z;;'fj
1,59 12.56
442
9.71
1.89 -. 1.95 1.80
13
B+ Dc:' 04 0:58' 0:62
4.
242
3.81
....... : 6H7 68 2JC3
NR Dc' . 04
0.32 0.38
1.16 1.21
1.1.5 1"
5.12 .. .fi. 2f28
4,.
Oca 04
0,23 0.23
8
1.12 1.12 1.12 1
25
, Nlj
25.4
fi:A4 24.37 7 2JC2
1,09
8
973
8
. Dcll Q.i
3.115 3.65 3.6.5 t
1.09
1.00
:d .......
d0,.52t
dO.43
dO.50
4
566
0.98
NR Dc Ooi c!O.19 dO.l1
dO.77
20 .
4.37
6 2/06
120
1.20 1.20 1
7 .
NR. 8p'2 Q1. 0.06 D.DB
. 0.85 2
'61
2:4'
'NI~
- Nil
22,7 3.6 . ....... ....31 .... 2103
O.1,.t 0,14 0.1" 4
4D
NR Dc; Ooi' O.ot 0.01
.6.82
1.94 1-0.87 17 ' 1/19
0.62 7
0.82 0.90 0.75 3
22
261
Je13 02
0.15 0.18
8.
0.53 .. 7
0,68 0.70 0.65 1
27
222
.2.14
........ 15:12 23 ;._...
NR Dc Q4
0.15 0.15
4.363.94 40.75 20 3106
2,00 '2.
2.!I5t 2.50 2.40 2
35
.66
A- JlI. 04 0.55 0.56
4.62 ...... 1/2"
D.02
8.34
NR. Mr . C3 0.20 0,20
'07
'1.33
.1.38 3'
t.5.00
1':64 1':64
NR
1 "1'4'
lB6 5.42
.......:.
C2 0.29 D~D
2"
'14,630
12.~6 ." 4.05 37.00 '3
NR. M,
'0.7.0 ,5
1.061 ",9
092
8'
2).6
FbI'. ci3 0:03' 0:03
0:57
.
0.66
0.50
12
1.460
3.11
15.75
0.03 ,,.
19
.6.99
d
2/17
Oc;lr 0" dO.M. 110.85
16
0.59 16.25
63.81 6.' d2.481 d'2,06 d2.95 6'
3,9"'3
NIX
Spll' 01
2.10-_ 2.fO 2.10
1,523 9.3
3.00 24A3 . 12: 1124
8.
0.40
1.80 .3
10'.
161
....... '19.00' '8 2/"
NR Dc Q4
2.23 5
2.44 - 2:50 2.40 5
18.66
0.59
Sp
.
Q1
0.43'
2.20
2'
3D
0.52 36.75 ,20 .......
NR.
CAS
t.72
4
2.23
22.
"6
,':;:62 2.38 "'.87
6
Dc Q4 0.61 0.74
0.95 12
1.78t. 2.32 1;13 13
13
102
NR'
03 110,0&', <10.04
dO.26 "
0.6010 0.72
0.50
43
40.62
d
":U8
2'~
:1.76 2
490
2:55 22.12 13 '1127
8+ . JI
2.01 2.02 2,00 2
..-.
5BO
C2 0....1 0.41.
NR J. 02
0.11 0.11
0.45 2
....... ....... ....... ." ....
13.5
0.46
.......
2.12
5 ......
NR DC,I
12
8,816
1.09 J1
1.l50 1.32
'1.53 . 0.41 28.56 - 22
',50
2.31 . 0.61 23."3 93 2/01
1,093
B0.41 12.
0.e7, 0.90 0.83 11
DclD ci4 0:22 0:23
2'
' 2-lor-l,'95,'9B. ~3-101'-2,'95.'97. 3 .2-f~t:98; 2..for','9~3-for-2.18..:' 3-lor-2,'94. '6-for-5,'97~ 73"tor-f,'98. I 5-for..4:95;3-far2, '94:96. I 2-Ior.-':99:00.
n 3-101-2,'97. 132lor-1;'OO. 1~21ar-1\'98,OO .. IS<3-tor2,'96,'98,'OOr ,I' 2.5-lor1 ,1I5:2-lor-1,'96. n 2-lor-1,'98(lWIce}.. ~. 2lor-1,'96. II 2lor~1.'99:
..

....

0.18
023
0.23
0.67
0.40

V'"

,.

~"

g:~:

...

~~__ _-- -...... ..

Nmaul_

e....

--

'SO

17'

36

71.5

"

.,

"

';64

.,,~

"

,. m3

-'-

__ ..._--_ ..

._----- ..

_-

Prlar VII' DIll


~ NI..I V.r Ol,e

Ca," .

Slocll
Hlme 01 IsIUI
Cadiz Inc;
C
+Cadmus Communication B
NR
CAIS Inlemel
NR
Gal Dlvelnll
NR
+Cal-Malne Foods
Caldera Systems
NR
G'lon C.rbon
BGal er Learning Netwotll: NR
Canco CommerCII .
NR
NR
Celli Pizza KItchen
A
Calil Water Svc Grp

-----str;

""", Fiscal
Do

Calif Amplililf

CallI Micro De"lces


Ga.l!Par TechnologIes
CallawBYGall
Callol'1Palroleum
Calpine Corp
Cambrell Corp
CB:~~
Heart
Cam
TElchno~""" Plnrs
Cameo FInancIal
Cameron FinBnc;Ial
Camll"lusCorp

G
G

NR
8+
NR
NR
6+
t~R

NA

6+
NR
NR
:t Csmpball Soup
A"
ClI.mlekl.trl:
NR
Canadian Natl Railway
NR
Canadian Pac.Qrd
8".
8tCandola Co:g .
NR
Canon IncA R
Clnlab Pharmaceulica/sADS NR
Canyon F1e5ClUreeS
C
Capllal Bank (NC)
NR
cap'lal COy
Ox
NR
Capilal Corp ollhe
esl NA
Gaolllll.r.CrolsinnBank
NR
Caplla' One Financial
NR
NR
Capllal. Senior Uving
NR
Cepilll.lSouthwesl
:trapna' Trust 'A'
NR
'CS;;,lol Federel FinanCIal NR
CapRoct Co1nmun/c;alluns NR
NR
Capstone Turbille

ea,'

Stoc;t Spills & D1V1lMnda


l02-lorl,99. "3!or-2;OO.

O'

J.
Dc
Dc'

02
04
04

Dc

Q4

Dc

. Q4

M,

".

Dc
Dc
Dc'

O'
O'

0
C

0"
Sp

Dc O.
JI' 02
Dc, '"
DclD 04
Dc'
Je" Q:i
De'l '"

Den

Dc"
Dc ,04
oct~ 04
OC'8 Q4
Dc
Oe'l 04
Dc O'
M' .

04
Q1

D, O'
Dc

04

I 2-for-I,'OO_ ~2
11 5-lor-1:9B. \~ 0

;-

'OC
"0

'liln
...

"

cD
0
dO

Fb' 03
M, 03
Dc O'
Do' O'
Dc 04
Do' O'
Do' 04
Do 04
ex: OJ
O'

Dc;
.so

d'0

O'
03

M'

dO

""

"'O::tt!

.,"'2
(II o
'"
- 0
",.,,"tl

Oc..O

... :I: ...

",o,J.

dO

e
e
de
C
C

..",
C

66 JAR-KAN

PrIarY_

DM.I .

, Hili ,_

o.U1

.
NllMofluul"
Jardine Sll1J.IIglc Hldgs
JDASoJtwareGroup

Earnings'" GuIde
tau'
I' ltrNt
. NEllInla'.
.1'"

. Com. .
'loci:
Alllkf'FlICII'
NR
NR

...

,..,.,,

!II8tlrl -'hi

M.1l

'HtgII." .~OW'_~~.

Dc
Oel 04

.._
",'

0.21

0.21

C
J~ 02
A":' . OCS 04

0.20
0.60

021 0.19 29
0.60 C),eo. 1
1.13 '1.08 ." .
0.30 '0.30' 1

'00'

'00'

frY' Pro)

.'111
.
.
. .
EPa - AnnUIII
. AcbllII IItN11 M!nI!!!JIr'!!trJ .. or' SI,,,, E'at/7ml'" 'pM
HI dr~\
Aftl.
~ EPS
......, .:~
. L~
Eita. .MIII! High LCJW-&11. All.'" liMn.)
. vO.1B
vO.Of.

t.41'

1;41: 1.41" f
0.84 '0.64 . f

_0.33
O.Bot

.0:33

0.33 < 1.
0.80
1

13
35'

6,097

Standard & Poor's


Monttl

ca." '''''

No'
TI'I;/1I"
Boot
Flow
(SIEihrj.' ($IShrl
1.22
5.56

N...

Prlor Yur Dill


t fUll y_ a.r.

,PI

....

PrlCI 2000 Aopt


1(0""0" PrE

'021

0.84'
",,'26. 0.819
\'2.55 , 2.33 .
.,"."2' 4.27'.
.,1.05 '.20
.,1.13. 2.32
lIItO.34. 0.13
vdD..41:cIO.13.

AM'
B+
B-

Kanus CIty So. Jnd


I(aty Indus
Kaufman & B((Iad Home

12.12 19 2/14
0.80
"'43
0.86"' 0.79 38 "'.13' 1:40 "J.02 28
48
1.~30.
2.81. tIO.44 50.06 62 001
2.03 .25.00 ':1 '1f1B
2.33 2.33 .,"' 2.70 2.70 2.70' 1'" ...
~O
18.09
Je"etlOn=-~llot
A+ 'Dc"04
1.11
4.30'.4.20'11
4.7.4 4,BO 41.67.1.1
11
2,561 26.22
....... 68.23 . ,10 .." ...
J.n.raon Sa~
BIOCorpNR ac&'04
0.30
1.20 1.20' 1
1.30 1.30' t30'1: 113 11.66':
.. ''''.31 72" 2114
16.75 '7' .......
Jell8l1On Srnurfil GIp ADS NR . Del
2.57 2.23 41 3.254 3.55 3.04 3
5
3,689 20.83
0.25
1'.37 '11
.1127
't:Jenny Cn.IQ
.
C.
Je . Q4I: 110.03 dO.03 dO.OJ '1
p:13: 0.13 ,1
.. ~.....
...,.........
8:
291
2.08
0.29.. .2.56 d 12/0.1
:tJetFonn Cofp
.
C'
Apr Q~ dO.0.4 dO.01 dO.07 2
NIl dO.4S (I
~O.2Ot dO.02 dO:3B 2..
15
9'.3
3.05
0.02' i::I 2JUt
JFAX.COM Inc
NR Dc 04 dO.2d dQ.20 d020
2 '1010,52 dO.73 dfJ.72 dDJ4 . 2
ao.49 dO.49 dO..49 1
,,,.
7.64
1.'B
.....,..
....... " '5.37 . 7
'Jnln Chemlcallnd ADS
NR Dc
."....
...._....
...0. 0' 0.74t 0.74" 0,74 1
1.16t. '1.16 1.10 1
41.
1,215 20.57
1.00 14.5B 9 2/17
:tJLG Indu3
B+
Q2
0.17 0.26 0,12' 6'
v1.37 1.56" 1'.02 1.45 1
18
1'.056
'.08
d
..
JMAR Ted-mOlD;!"
BDc Q4
0.02
0.02
0.02
,.
IIdO"2 dO.04. dO.02 dC),05 2
0.28' 0.35 '0.20 2'
....
24.8'
1.12 110.00 4.00
....... 40.00, 89 2/14
JNI CoIp
~.
NR Dc"04
0.20 0.20 0.19 ~
VO.~2: a.5et 0.59 . 0.57 ;4
O.W 0.95 . '0.90 ...
35
'40.2'
2.64'
3.10 _7.00 11 3/15
Jo-Ann Stores'A'
B
Ja~ . 04
0.85. 0.8.5 Q1I5. l' . rt-1.38
0.611 .0.01: 0.61 l'
l.QO.I.: 1.00 MO'
"
10
1.3B2 '12.65
....... 31.50 13
.
JbhnHa!\ObdlFln'fSYGS N'R'['Dc
Ot
0.66 MB ':0:55 13 VOO.02: 2.38' '2.38 '2.25'15
2.59 2.83 ':2.50 15' 14
7'85er 17.75
John Nuveen 'A'
NR' 'De Q.4 .. 0.81 0.83 0.80 3
'12.B5 13:1E1 '3.20'
3.141 3 ":U8
'3.&\
3..45 3
10
349
5.91 3.20 48.87 .16 1fZ5
1.80 10,06
't 21()3
John! Mlln....neCOrp .
B'
Dc:04
0.32
0.3lJ '02B 3
vo1,66 1.50 1.BO: 1.34 5
1.49~ 1.55 '1:45 3'
"
2,162
4.92
-1:'JolwonControll
A+ ~
Ql
1.10 1.28 1.05 ~O vP5.09 5.53 5.75'5.30' 17
5.95 8.15 5.65 4
IS 17,155 0.45 9,30 . 65.12: "10 1119
':1.95 '00.00' 29 '1125
Johnson I..Johnson
A+
Dera Q1'
0.64
0,05 &.63 .21
. '1'2.94 . 3.40 3.42' 3.31 31
. 3.82 "3:88 3.79 30" 13 .27.471 '0.05
3.24 5:68- 4 1/27
,*John30nOutdool'!'A'
BSp
Ql dO.07 dOJ17 dO.m . 1 ~.09
1:27:: 1".27' 1.27. 1
'347
4.23
2.04 32.6B 13 2109
Jon8!lApparel~.
B+ Dc.11 Q4 0.52 0.55 .0:50 22. vl.60 2-.50.' 2~52 2:.45 '23
2.99 3.14 '2.9323:
1!l:
3;151
Neg
d2.57 13.93" 10 2f09
Jonesl!lngLeSane
NR Dc '04
0.98
0.91 '0.9"
3'
W4.20
1.37 't.38 1.35 3'
1.!l7 1.60 1.50 '3
113
736
Neg
.......
5.62'
... 3109
JOTe Corp
NR Dc 04
0.13 0.14
0.12' a
vpO.39 ~ O.04l 0.05 '0.03 . 3
0.11l 0.25 0,09 3
26
53.9
324
........ .4.00 5 3/08
. JoLA. BlnkClothlers
BJa
04 _.0.42 0..42 0.42.1
...0.20 0.7.11:!0.7'" '0.74.'1
1.06. '1.06. too. 1
15
:194
6.41
1.63 16.81' 16 ztl)4
JoumalRegisl8l'
NR De
()4
0.32 0.33' 0.314
,,1.02 l.oe:f101,OT
.. 7
1.181.'20:1.15'5
"
470'
Neg'
.......
1.3'1" d
,
JPMCo
.
NR
Sp
....:..
.;L . '~:. ''#0.70 dO.05 "Nil dO.09 2' :.......
.
:
30
168'
0.28
........
1:12
3 2/18
Judlle.l;:DmIne
NR . De .. Q4
0.09 0.09 0'.09' l'
~.4.tI
0.33 0.33 0.33 ,
0.'26 0.26 0.26 1
20
114
0.11....... 124.62
.:. 1/19
JlInIpMNetwoTh
.
NR . Dell 04
0.18 020' '0.17 '19: dO.OS 0.47t 0.50 0..46 19
0.8Ot 0:B5 '0.76 20:
1(13
1.87
........ :2.31.' d. 1112
JUT\OOnllniiSvcs
NFl: De',' 04 dO.4S dO.47 dO..49 3
.I:l2.Q.7.
:do3.0!_d,J.5_8."dJ.a7 -'3
dO,93r dO.90 dO.95 3
52.0
0.90
9.31'" d .2ff6
" Jupll~ MedIaMetrbr
NR
Oe 04 dO,01' 0.01 ~.01
4' '10".304 'dO.28t dO.25 If):2Ei.4
0.34t 0.38 . 0.22 - 5'.43
20,5
3.36'
i49 5.50': 9 ','3/17
'K m!ll1
81Ja Q4 0.55 0.70 '0."'3 15
'10.81 0.6Q.l."0.75 dG.30 20
0.01. 0.85 dC127 15
9
35,9~5' 13.10
8.10 24.0l) 13 "::2/10
KSwmlnc'A'
B'
Del' 04 0.25 0.31 0.10 5 ~.99 1.89f. 1.95 1.73'5
'2.021 2.10
1.85 5
13
2&6' 11.57
3 .14 18.25
7 2/16
K..Tron Ir1I1.
8- . Dc ()4 0.71 0.71 '0.71 '1'
'12.23, 2.55 . 2.55 . 2.55 :,
. 2.00 '2.80 :'2:BO 1
..:.
87.9'
6.39'
1.31 7:87 .' 7 2123
K2-'nc
B+ OCl4 ~" ....,.. "'''''. M..... ...
vO.~ 1.10:' _',1ct .:-1.10 . '2
1.20' .1.20 1.20 '1
12
835 '10.01'
28.75
31
.. 2/OC
K~VPhlln:neceutIclICI'B' BMr'l a3
0.23 0.28 0.17 liii
vO.79 0.85 0.90 0.74 6
1.1.4 1.17 1.09 5
28
1411' 2.07. 0.92
4.81 :22 3101
KllilerAItnVnuttT
C
Dc 04
0.05 0"2 dO.04 1
we.fi8 0.221' 0.2B "0.13'8
0.84+ 1.29 '0.32
8
10'
2;044
0.90 . 50
. KlI'nan Corp crA'
B
Dc 04
0.39 0.39 0.39'1
tUJ:i
1.55 1.5StSS1
1.49 1.49 1.49 1
.....
984 :'5.10;
1."'9 11.62' 8' 11i?B
. Kan!lComrnunlcalion.
NR' Dc!1 04 dOol0 dO.1? dO.22 12
'Id4,e1 dO.08 dO.52 dO.92 14' d029 dO.28 idCl:;Jl 14: :".'
14.1
1.411'
. 12.82'" d, 1/21
Kan.tl Ploe Une.~1W1LP. NR Oc: 04 .0.71'. '0.12 M.7
2
Y2,81' 2.55 2.65 2 .40"4
. 2.81 :2 91 . 2~1I5.:.4
5
. '58
8.91. 3.79 27.12~ :11 m.0
K8n!8J.C.ftyUlalni
A-IDc.~~.04. 0.87 0.87 'G:S7-'1!
J.se ...2Dt4.20.".20 .. 1!.4.25 '4.25 4.25 1 ....
4741." . 40.06: : .. '3.4.18 . e 12/28
KansiI!sCltyPwr&!-t
_ S+_ O~. ~ . 0,18 02.5
0.10 2. _Y1.:28 U8l 1.58 1.40.3
2.11 2.25 .~.OOO
4
~97 .13.97
. 25.9~ _.18 2.!02
Stock 8pUtt' DIvICftnit!ll \3-J6r-2,'98.U 2"1or-1';'97,'91 ,'99{1:WIce),'OO.
:l2-1or-1,'9d.'97. No -adl"tor sik dair,'99: ('3-(or-2,'95,'96. J'2~-I, '97. 12.fcip-1:95, ';J;-lor-2, '93 ..
12-lor-l,'95(twIce):3~'or-l.'96.
12-lor-l In era','9S. 'a 2101'-1,'98. II 2-(or-1,'96,'98. 12 3-ror~1:OO:2--1or-1,'OO: .1:12-'or~1:99 .. U AtIJto 5"','91l. 153-lor-2,'9S:00. 112.lor-1;'OO.
:t:JOSUnlphlilleCorp
J.!lflrfe, OtouP

Com.
Slock

N.m.o,r .. ~

..,

Do
NR Do
B+ Dc
NR Do
N,R Do

I(BK Cl!Dita
Kssnelt7c
I<eebler Foods
f(ellh Companies
B
*K~~:ci instruments.
Ken
Co
B+
KeJlstrom Induslries
NA
B+
Kellwood Co
Kelry SeMces-'A'
A
KEMET Corp,
NR
Kemilelnll
NR
.:t"X&1lfl.mEllal.lnc
B+
J(snnSdy-WlIson IJ'lC
NR
1(~lh CcJe PlodlJcli(l1'l5'A'NR
*Kan!l~ Nash
NR
Kent leetranlcs
8+
J(efaVlslon Inc
NR
Kerr-McGae
B
Ksryx Btopharmacllulicals NR
*Key Energy Services
C
Key Production
B

So
D<j

0,
Ja!

Do

M,
D<j

J.'

Do
Do

J.
M,

Do
Do
0<
J

Do

*.lI:e'f Tachnolog'f_
13 S:;
KllyCorp
A+ ' 0,
*Kllynole S~slem!l.
NR ' S,
0,
KeySpan orp
8+
KMlDne AUlomoliYelnl1JslrlllS
NA M'
D,
KOY5loneCoNior Ind
Key3Medla Group
NR
0'
klorce.com lnc
D,
NA
. KFX II\C
NR ,0'
:t)(lmball Inn CI'B'
A
J.
Kimberly-CIark
A
0,
KinderMorganEgyPtnr5U'. ~R
Kinder Morg!ln
B.
0,
King PharmaceuUciil'3
~m ,0,
. Kirby CorD
B
0'
Klrin Br8W'8ryADS
NR D,
:f,KLA-Tencor Corp
B- ,J.

e-

'"

SlockSpllta 'Dlvldends
I ;).Ior'1-10'-10 REVERSE.'95:6-for-5,'97.:
u 3-Jo,-2.'99:00. \~ 2-lor-1:95:00.

, .
~

;.
'CO

., 0

'gn

~~

"11"., to Z
lC
- 0
CO O

... .,,"ll

oc..b
_:1: ...

tOa..l.
'!'i-

Do
Oo

8
A

'."'CO Co:/'

J" .

eo<

rinD""
800t"

_I'"

72"2
5.58
2.61

18.09"
26.22"

..._.,...
Hilt
End
EP8
Cllh
Pl'lcl 2000 Rllpl
Flow
~1N1Nwoo Pre Dill

_....

Ill....
2.03

".H.St',

50.08"

62

2101

25.00 11 '1119
6e.2~ 16
.
14.31

20.83'
2.08
3.05

12

211~

". 16.75 :7
.
0.25 "1.37-',11 '~127
0.29", 2.56 d 1210,1

1.&8
20.57"

..;

'.DB
1.12

.
12.12 19 2114

LaO
dO.oe

0.62"
; "5.37

d 2101
7
.

'4.56'

9 2117

4.00

2.64'
"12.85
17.75
5.91

...... 40.00 69 2/'4


3.10
7.00 11 3/15
31.50 13
.
3.20 48.87 16 1125

04.92
0.,45

1.80
9.30

10.06
7
55.12 '10

2103

8.05
42:1"
Neg

'119
3,.95 100.00 29 "1(lS
3.24
5.68 .. 1/27
2.04 32.68' 13 2109

6.41

.......

".r.~i~:~~'~::~'.~~
4.00

5 3108

~~i
~.:~
,~:~,"
':.~

0.71

1.87
0.90
3.311
13.10
11.57
1I.3~
"10.01
2.07

......

1.12

3 2/18

12Ul2
.:.
2.31.
d
~
9.31
d
2..49 5.50 9
8.10 2HIO' 13'
3.34
18.25
7
1.31
7.87'
7
0.92 26.75 31

-.'1g:~g: ~:~ 1~:~" 2f.


1.41

12.82'

B.9\

3.19

27.'2'

. '40.86
.13.97

;..

3UB
25.9~

3-for.-2,'93.
1I2for-1;'OO.

,"

1119
'1112
2/16
.'Sl17
2/10
2/111

2/23
2104

~~x
1/21

2i2B

B 1212B
18. 2102

PI10r Yllr D.l .


i Hell Y.om

H.lMofl .....

....

. . ~llt OU-'er
StNlllllml'lu
lIIShrl '0'

. com.
'.' IlloeII

.-

-.

A.... H_

Kanll' CIty.So. Ind


8~ Oe' 04
Kilty Indu, .
.. "
Del ......
Kllufm.., & Brold Home B. : .NY, 04
Dc1.'Q,4
A

0,1.4

Higil'

:..

O.lB

Low
0.09

Elli.

,.
,

N"
20111
1-.~p~OI Annuli rlng/bre
lnl
2000
c .. ,
A_
. Aetul' 81.... 1 EIIIrn.- diShr) .' at BI,.I Eellll1l" WShrl 'of Clrow1tl -RWI.
Booll
H_ N'",
Low !III. RII."" (I MU.), lSIShr). . (llBhr)
ElIli. H ...
NI"

.......

g~

J.' :

....

.,.

;K'."J~~".

...

",.

,
,

~=

;Ka",...

"&'''''

....

J"

04 .,.

02

...

__

l.

Splllll DIvidendi

0:05 ii:01' '7

.... ..,. ,

,- ,

E"

'15,58
'11.21
1,75
'13.08
1.86
1.98
.'11.85
0..48 0.54 . 0 ..46 '5
'. KB ea~~I.
NR Dc . ;..
.0.05
....... ....... .
'IH,Ol
Kltllnlllnc
0.20 .. 0.11
0.1"
8+' 'Dc' 04
'11.01
KlleblM Foocb
NR Dc Q,4 . 55 0.58 - 0.53
.ttellh Companies
O.50
NR ,Dc 04 0.18 0.18 0.18 1
Pvl.30
So' Ql
SbUmerQ..
*Kera:
~~~
0.37
3
o 7 .0.29
14
O.83
Kel
Co'
.
OC'Q,4
NR' Do Qo4' 0.22 0.25 0.20
'11.48
KeRlIlrOmIndustria
0.03 4
va.35
Kellwood Co
Q.4 . 0.03
8+
KIIIIySlIl'VIces'A'
Y:t2.36
A'
Dc Q4: 0.7:1 0,72 0.11 '3
vO.65
KEMET Corp:'
NR Mr' Q3 1.11 1.1.4 (119
Ken!18 Inll
'10.65
NR .Dc 04 dO.04 dO.02 dO.04
..al.11
*Kennllmelal, Inc
B+ J"
0.43
02:' 0 ..41 0.51
Kennedy.Wllson Inc
NR' Dc' . 04 0.52 0.52 0.51 .~. vO.58
0.49
v.t1.19
K..,nelh Cole PIDduclIcnI''''' NA- Dc' Of
9.52
0.55
.02
0.15
0.13 0,15 3. "'.5O
NR .Je
Kent eel lcs
8+
O.63
M" Q3 0.33
5
. '2
KmVlslon Inc
vel1.68
NR Dc 04 dO.50 dO.38 <19.60
Kerr-Mc:Gea
_2.30 12
Dc' 04:'1. 2.65
321
'tIJ1.89
.
8.
Keryx B10pharmeceulqls NR Dc 04 dO.6.4 dO.23 dl.04
IId1.11
2
t Key Energy SeMce.
C ' Je .~
lr,Yd025
0.09
0.10
0.08
Key Production
8 .. Dc :
'10.56
0.12
0.18
0.64
1 PvdO.12
*K.y Ted'tnology'
8- '50 'Q1 0.21 0.21 .21
KeyColfl
'
,.
A+ 'DcIO Q4 0.60 0.61 0.51 20
'12.45
0.12' .0.10
6 PvdO.11
0.11
Q.
NR 50
Del.! 0.- 0.61 0.115 0.55 10
'11.62
!P " ........
8+
K
AulomolIYII
NR
Mr '03 0.10 0.111 . 08
'11.01
8'
Keyatone COnsoi Ind
YdO.75
Dc 04 0.1,! 0.10 0.10 1
1e:.y3MecIIi GrouP
.... 05
NR De ~".
k1ol'Cll.com Inc
d0.53
NR .Dc q ,04
NR
Dc.
Q4 dO.10 dO.10 dO.10
1
dO.53
t~~
Ine ers'
~iHij(lnll
Q2
.
35
ri121
A0",'
Klmbtrly-Clark
A- ~
v3.09
Q4
0.87
0.811 12
K1nd1rM!J'gIIn Ert P1rn LP. NR Del 04: 0.68 0.70
0.65
7
0.2.63
Kinder Morglln
8 ' De's' Q4 0.39 0..40 0.38 '6
'td3.01
0.28
. 29
0.25
YOO.63
. KIy ~~:aaMlallll
NR Dc'4Q4
Dc
Kirb Co
B
.18 0." 5
'11.01
Kwn BIllW8ry ADS
NR Dc'
'13.17
l
:t:~LA..T.noorCOrp
8- Je !
. 56
0.57
0.55 22
'11.32

K.~.Co:/'

KAN~KLA

Earnings Guide

'.
H'

0.56.: 0.60
0.51
,0.38
0.38
0.36.
.4,14 5.07
3,95
1.77
1.89 ,1.40
0.57
0.57
0.51
0.51
. 58 0.40
1.86
1;92
1.81
. 0.82'
0.82 :0.82
1,82t. 1.113 . 1.80
1.60 '.1.63
1.55
. 0.57 '- 0.62: 0.50
2.&4. 2.BO 2.61
2.50
2.50
2.50
4.19t '.4.32
.4.05'
dO.07. dO.OJ, dO 19:
2.49
2:75' 2.30
. 0,91
0.92 '.0.90
1.16 .1.7B
1.74

0.72 . 0.79

I.,.

1.27
'el2.10
. B.69'
d1.0.4.
0.31'
2.16'
1.16.
: 2.30
O.54t
,2,25

0."
1.11,

l'
11

,
,

l'
16
1
.2
'17

,.,

,
.5.
.. 4
'1.1
2

,.

.1:12.04 . d2.15 .:3'

.: 9.29 .. 1..45 .11.


'c:If".04 d1.04 .. 1'
0 ..43 .().32;1;
2.24 ': 2.09'. '5'
1.16
1.16. 1
2.40. 2.25 23
.0.51
. 60
7
2.30' ~.12, 115
O."Q.I 0,48' 0,33 . 3
0.20
0.20
1
0.20
0.01 0,01
0.07
1
0.06. 0.09
0.03
7
dO.38. 1.38 dO.38
1
1.37
1..41 1.30
3.32
3.37
3.29 11
2.70
211'
2.60 12
1.25
1.30
1.20.
0.96
0.85
. 1. 8 .1.42
1.3'
3.6U
3.61 .3.61
1
2.28
2.41 . 2.18 22

?:~

,,,.

0.78.
0.80
U2
2.07
0.75
O.BQl.
2.09

0.90
0.80

0,87
0.80
".30
1.95
0.75
0.38
.2.00
0.94
2.35
125
1.29
2.80
'2.65
3.60
0.16
2.80
1.00
2.14

1
11
'.02
2.20
1
0.75
11
1.05
2.20
1
0.94' 0,94
2.35
1
2.35
16
1.44. 1.18
1.31
1.52
3.23
5
3.17
2.85
2.65
.4.311 4.60'
5
-0.21.' 0.2.4
3.00
3
2.90
1.05
2
1.02
.2,19
2.25
0.,.
0.56 2
0.73
1.6B
1.60
1....
d1.64~ d(54 d1.13
2
1.06'
9.21 . ~.70 1.4
dO.91 dO.87 dO.94 2
0.92 0 ..44
1.90
5
2.27'
3.18

~~

.......

2.54
0.16
2.45
'0.52

2.65
0.76
2.55
0.52

2 ..45 23
0.76
1
.2.35
14
0.52
1

0.21
0.38.
0.24'
1.54
3.10
2 ....

0.27
0 ..48
0.2.4
1.62
3.18
3.10
1.65
1.20
1.65

1
0.21
0.30
0.24
1
1..45 2
8,82 16
2.15 11
1.50
1.01 10'
1.58

'.00

'.00

3.00

,".

.15'.24
. 8."7'
10.70
6.93
7.41
4.63

,:08

.,

1.81

......

.......

,.,

1.4

"

3-Ior'-1,'97:1-1or2 REVERSE.'OO. No adJ lor .sIXdslr Slillwel finl. '00. f 2lor~1,1l7. :I3lor2:94:2for.4,'96.'97. 42lor1,'OO. !3-lor-2,'94. '2-for.1, '94
, 1-for~10 REVERSE. '95:8-lor-5,'97. 3-lor1,'98:3-for-2, '98 . 3'or2, '00. 3-lor2,'95:2lor-', '96~'~2-lor-1,'98. II No adj lormgr wlKeySpan{Bklyn Union). U 2'or.1 :96,'97. 1~3-f01.2:99.
143-1012,'99,'00. 152.101-1,'95,'00.
.
1

'
, .
.,, ",

,.
"

""

... ..

" '"
1

""

Col.

"

, "

ms

Now'DD PIE

, "
,

n"

1.11
1.62
.4.00
2.55

1,814

E.'

Price 2000 Rlpl

0.00:
8.43 ,15 ...
If. 7
7.25 2.
3.22
3,836
1B
3.89 3'1.37 .. 8 . 1/'
12
2.34
22.75
f3, 21'
19.1
......... 3.75'
7 2f.
2.
1,041
24
1.44 .. 1.1.68 2'
2/"
2103
2,668
1.96 .41.18 22 : 2J03
39,6 .
3102
1.
7.2~
151
37.00
4.07.
2'
20
15 1~~~7
698.4
2.24
1.54 24.62
. 33:1 7.44
1.
3.12
5 2/2,
2,194 : 18.09
3102
15
2.B7 20.12
I.
4,289
11217
14.34 . 3.38 23.62
622 . MS.
11.50'
11
1.52
"2B
117
25
10.37
'2
5.25
d 2/22
1,654
12
28.68. 12 '12'
3.90
5.05
2.
8B.6
.4.18
5 3102
2.93
2.
295
5.87
1.40 .44.25 25 2/25
HM
1120
.4.40
'.50
2'
.
g.34
1B
1.30
15.68
12 1119
99'
d 2/2'
10.5
0.62
Ne!
2,696
24.9
7 2102
8.76 60.B1
2.7B
10.00.
d
1121
2.
"7.25 2.
0.60
63' 2.02
2.
11 ,/03
8.119
2.92 24.12
58.'
61.6 . . 56
15
5.37.
5 1/31
7,989
......... 24.93
11 1119
12.01
33.B
1116
2.54
..... 18.25
2,955 . 22.79
1.
, 38,12
17 1127
....
7.87
....... 5.62
212'
357
1.1
3.48
1..42
225
251
10.50
2.
m
.4.68. 78 2/22
19
2.85
1.93
d .......
N'l .dO.'"
10
1201
5.14
14.68 .11
11.9
"
11
13,0.01
8.62
.4.17 69.93
21 2/03
15
28.8a
.4.72
4B.00
17
02'
1,745
1B
41.43
1121
NOO
22
1..49 48.15
52 2121
NeK
, .4.3
2,41' 1125
2J03
14,115
10.80
94.00
26 .......
1,.499
25'
9.68
1.64 27.50
12 11.13
1~.

, ".

1.58

..

67.
He.1I

Monll'l

"
"

;.

'00
"'0
'On

~i;'

-g""~.,,-g

",lDZ
_
0

lQ

'" O

o'-Q
...
XW
CDa,J;..

68 Kl!A-LAM

Earnings Guide
I

"

Nfrf

A-I

Dc'

NR
B+

QuIrMr .

~ . ci4.

Book

0.27
0.32

"'.24
".S91
4.02
2.07.1.
.'.43..

0.33 . 0.20 13
0.34 0.28 '7

dois
d023 ~:23
0.Z5
024

dO.55

0.05

...;~..
~.Q6

;~".q4

J.'

~ ..;.........

a.

....,.

0.26
0.23
.......
dO,O'.

....:.:-. -'..:

17

.2"

0.05

004
Q4

0.4'5
0.70

......-

~,II:'

....~... ~.

...n1:l" . ..., . ?_

WK'

.....

.~.

I:l?It

-,.......,

...-;". ..... M ....

0.43

0.65
...:... , .. I vdO.4.1~ 0.45 .' (1.45:_0.45 '1
0..31 ~o-.31 . 1
0.16 '0.91 .. ,

i=I I'. D~,.04


i5:5";
o~iij
rk:11 0.
0.42 0.42

,I
(

~--

O.o.c 2

D~I.o. 0:59 0:67 0:57


0.(4:
0.67
,,,_,,
0.3~'
0.9'

.~--

.i!.14 .' 1.80'

'-KJ.S1~ 1:,0.' . ,.08..


1,00
7.
vcd.74 ~1.36 'Ho
1;34' 20'
Prl.21 : 1:38 :"J:fi6'
1'.26"'4"
....... I...... ....
r2.Q8: 0;9~ .: 0;95 Ms f.
0.10 .~dO.25_12_ . ~1JI0 . ~H' ~,40 :'::0.05 14:

.......

0.30 0.27

0.204 '0.22

:00 ii40 i:i:~1 0:39 '7

--2.031

r1.88 1.97' 2.20 "1.70 '3


~0.01 0:2CU',0,21 :.d.1S 7-.
'v1.03 _ 1".45t'2;30 ';.,.1:13 '41.

;:.

: ,~ci4: 0:87 0:90 "0:85 ':6'


0.05

lJl.;Jl

'7

Ap, ;'02
0.18
0.21 0.12
Dc "004 dO.51 dO.6t 1::10.61
Dc: "04 dO.1~ dO.18 1-.20
Dc;1::34
dO.10".dO.1Q dO.40
'Krlspy Kre.,"" Doughnuts
NR'j: J.s'. ;".
.I(;oger Co . .
8+
03
*Kronos Inc'.
B+' 'SpIG 0'
Kubole 'CoJPADR .
NR' '"" :: ,;.
tKuf/cke SQltl!llnd:.
8SDI' Q,:
'Kyocerleotp
ADR
NR'!'U-" .'.,
l~Ctlmrnunlcttlon, Hid s NR' D
laJoIleP~a""aceut.ICl.p.NR
D"
*lA-Z Boy"
A+ . J ~12
labcr'Rel!dr
.
NR 0 :1~ 04
leborilorlo
CNi. ADS NR "'. lltoa!ory CorpAmerHldgl 8La8ranch.
&. Co
N~
Dc 0l1li
Llclede Gas
8 . SDII Q1
lJICrasl!1!IFoOlw811r
NR' Dc,. ".

.... _.

"'1

:...

0.35
0.60

0.42

;0.42

dO.63

dO.59

1
o4

14
16.
7

..".
\9.

2
,03

20 .

75:3

Clsh
Flow

Month"
Enlf
PrfCII 2000

N ,
EPS
R."

. 13.5,2'

3.228

No"

e01
3.99
151
6,67
046.0 '16.98
5.13 ~1.S2

:r:tiii'r

37.1

'No.:

4 .5.57.

.......
.......

(:0.37 27 .......
0.:98"

'd

Dc; ()c.
. Je1t Q2

0.35

Com,

NIme ol,!uuI.

SI[lct
RRl'lk

1?~~
I' .-):j~:..

~:so _8

NR
NR

Lamson & Sessions


Lan Chit., ADS
t Lancaster COlony

BNfl
A+

lance. Inc' .

2fl.4

.......

O~5
;'
0.53
2:8~
0.048
:f:lam R'iII,arCh
Stock SpillS & Dlvldlndl 1 3-foT--4 REVERSE,.99; 2 2-1or-','96. 12-lor-1,'99: "j.lor.2i'98. 52lor-1.'96,'9a:oo. I 4-lor~,'OO; .1Nor-1,'99','00. 12Jor-1.110. 12-101"'1,'97,'99. :10 Mor-2,'96;'99;
II 2-lor-1,'98. 123-lor-', '98, IS3-lor-2:9Ei,'97,9B.'99. 14'Hor- ~OREVEASE.;OO.
152-lor.1.'94. II ~.lor~1.OO..
.:
.'
..
.,
.
1lI
... G_.

Prior Vllr 01"


t Nut VIITD.I~

lamar Ad\ler1il;lng 'A'


lamar Capilal

6,020 ." 38.87"

6.50 7,' 2102


". .f.70 ' 1.04 53.56 52' 3107
24
dO.SOI dO.50 _ ((1:50
1-..
2&
332
0.B5 d2.17
0.93.d
2JOo4
....... ,......
..
10.791 '19.66"
2:65 32.81 16' "..
2.58 3.02 2.09 . 4
12 31:674
8.e9
14.75 1
.
1.97 ~.97 1.97 1'
t1 . 2;511 12.78
10,25 51 2/18
O.33~ 0.40 0.29 '7, 40
:Ja.7
1.00
10.00 .7 .......
.:1.9'2' 2.9'l '1.35 3
1.9; 13;"865 "20.85
27.25 19" ; .
'2.00' 2.4i : 1.75 S'
44 10.3751
.
00
2.00 1.28 4,
29
501'
3.68
('7 31.12 31 12104
l!1.5ot dl.35 d'.1l5 '2
36.3 . ": ~eg
d2.88 22.12 d '2/22
12.75 d
.
ti1;00 dO.95 d1.06 ~
5.3.5
....Of
tJO;52' dl),42. dO.57 3
126'
2.71'
.18,62" d
.
.
1.J0
'.32
'1.25
6 25
2201 '7.50
....". 70.00" 68
1.57 1.l?5 ".~4 19
16 /.045.352 Neg . 1.88 26.50' '19' 12107
"':'" . .
25
270
556
2.64 . 34:50 25' 2/14
2.97 '2.97
."2.97 1
.... - 9,314 "6192
0.38 11.50 75' 12101
24 ..
1.5010 2.30 "0.70 ,9,34 111 1/18
!. f8
5.let 6.26 1l.26
1;J9..c3 27 .....,.
2.61" 2.90 ,2.70 :j. 20
64.62 28 2102
6.62 d' 2r.!8
1.74
1':80
12.
1':65. 14025 .9""'2108
025' .0.29 0.20:3
31. ..B~1
2".57. 9.tW 3.00 13.2116
180
cr.48
. 16'.00 8'
.
4.65 . 4.95
26 1,699 ":Neg"
0.77 142.06 44 2117
f.g.
23.25 '14': 1f25
2.00 '1.90
3
~9~.
'201
. NeC!
1.a2 1.92 1.92 1
4
'566 14:9f
22.75 12 1/27
t
. .12'
124
6.5!5
2.61 6'2/22
1;42
10
170' . 6.57'
1.43 :'.4'0 "2
....... 9.12' 7 1131
6.07 . 19.75 . 5 1/27
3~92' 4.13 . 3.75 .8
10
2.654. 13.45"
1.13
0.14
.
...
2.2".
No.
0.34' 0.66 '0.01 4
11.
'3f3
18.99:' . 87 38.75 19' 1121
2,81" 2.10 2.50 8
704.9 8.65
.1.75 "1
11.50. 7
1.75
. 1.75
7.62 04 2108
54.7/: U5-.60 :
124
. 5.68" ;-:7, 1~.00 T 1121
2:41
1:63 11 22
1.19 1.29 1.13 11
1.26"' 1.29 1.2J lO ,"

0,26

........

NR'l
NR

KonIn~' Ptnlips 88dTOn NV


'DC" .
KOOl ,nclus'Ud ADS
Dc
}(oplnCClrp'
C
.Del.p4
.KOfIlSElItctrlcPowtlf.ADS
NR Dc':

1.24 "1.24
3.75 0,49
4.'5
3.95
2.40 "1.65
1.57 1.33

1.6M 1.70 '1.65

:3

9
& .04
o,o4a
0.56 0.0404'9
~ . 04 dO.1~ dO.tJe. dO.25 3
N-"
..
.,
M I Mr
;; ..
.:
':' . OC

Kom8lsulid AOS

Tanll'bl

01

......................... ,:
._.
(;"0' .!.:rii5 10'
'04
1.08

Q4
Dc4 Q4
()cJ'

Standard & Poor's


Not

....... l!'IImJ~~
.PM:f

B-

lencarCorp
landacorp Inc
lllndair Corp
lBndameriCI Financial Grp
:tLandauer Inc'
landmark Bafleshar.!:
landmark.SYstems
lMrdry'o! SealOOd R"slluranls
lands' End

8+
NR
NFl
NR
B+
N!='l
NR
NR
B

LBndsllH sr.S1em
tlanier Wordw\d"l
(ante Corp .
L!rg~ ScalI) Biolooy
laser-Pacilic 'Media
:tla,,~r VJ~on Cenlers
leserscop&
laserslghl Inc
lA,SMO pic ADS
lason. Inc
l8liluda Communicalions
lattice Semiconduclor
t lauder tEslee) CO
Launch Media
.!;awrenCII Savings Bank
leyne Chrlslen.!len CO
tLezBre Kepl,,"'ln"
LCA.-Vlslon
Lee InWA'
Leap Wireless Inl\
Leer Corp .
tLeernlng Tree Inti
Learn2,com Inc'
lLeCroy Corp
Lee En1erprises
Legelo Systems
legg Mason Il'lc

NR
NFl
NR
Nq
B
B
C
NR
NA
~JR
NFl
B
~~R
NA
BNR
BNR
NA
NR
NR
B
NFl
C
A.

Siock Splits & Dividends

'~

10

e
~

4-lor-3:97:2-lorl ,'98.

::E

'go
'CO
CD n

..,'"CD

"ll"0>"'2
lC CD 0'

<n..,"ll

o t-b
... Xc.>

"'b.J.

114 TEL-THE
Y_ DI" .
Hilt V,. o.tI
.'
Hlm.aUAIl."

Prier

*"

..

-------------,-Standard & Poor's

E~rnl'1gs,' Gur~e:
; :

Nal

Cci""
Sid
R....II: fisc.!

T8'8(OnO' de M'811'l'AOS NR . Dc'


Telematl.NeI,Softwlre
NR"OC

Quirt.

2000""'

2l1C1t.

5-Yr Prvl
.EP8... Annlll1

"."

."
. tlllt
.
811'11t!iClrnIteI: @hrJ , of
ACtual StrMI'lUmlltl ~811l1... 01", Su... l e.t1mltll !S1Ihr) '01 0;,",,"" R...
YIlkl .. "HJgh .. ...,..- ..E.tI .
EPlS ,..,
,tfI;tl .. :",
~,~ .'11.," High"' ~.
E!lII.. R... 'llI liMa.}
04

dO.42

......
dO.42

.;>
dO.42.1

.1'3.44 3.61'
4.04 . 3','5
vdl.07 d2.06 cI2.04 d2:08

13"
2

TllemlgCllurarPlIl1lclADS NR Dc:
.....
......
vO.04 1.13. '1.91 '0.55 ]'
TelenetlcsCorp
NR Dc' Q4 dO.09 dO.OS dO.09
,
wdO.12 dO.27tdO.27 dO.27 .:,
Telephone & Data 811'
A- Dc' 04
0.504 0.58 0.51 2
v3.67
2.81 2.95 2.79 '4
Teleleanlnc...
C.
Dc 01 dO.1" dO.12 dO.15 2
wdO.12 dO."".dO.42 dO.45 2
TeIup~IuIIllP.r1IdADS NR' Dc
_
_... '] PIIO.46 0,67 1.204. 0.4~ 9.
..TeleBpednJmWol1dw1deNR Dc Q4 0.08 0.06 0.08'
vO.18 0.05 0.10
NIl 2
.TeteTechHokllngl
NA Dc 04 0.21 0.21 :0.20 8
vO.048 0.66 0.5B 0.82 .9
TellWestConmunDICA.OS NR Dc
. :..
..
0:13,83 d2.33 d1.41 d3.35 3
.TeI!gentrnoA'.
NR. Dc ()4 d2.9g. d2.10 d3.3B 14 ~.95
d12.20 d11.51 ~13.:;9 16'
TelikIrIc
NR Dc 04 dO.14 dO.1" dO.15 2
tIO"'7 dO.B3tdO.52 dO.bo
3
Tellabs.Jnc.
B
'[)c2. 004. 0.56'
0.l$.1 0.50 V
IIf.38 1.6T '1:71
1.612B
TelodlyDelaware
NR Dc 04. dO.65 dO.a4 dO.BS .3 vp::I1.19 d2.n d2;68 cI2.8J 3
.TellltraCorn"ADS
NR . Jr
vO.72
.
TellofiCorp.
C." Mr: 03 dO.30.dO,30 dO.30 "'1 YCI15.18d1.92. d1.92 ;dl.92 1
Templ.lnland
B" 'Oc 04
0.98' 1.06 '0.91 S'
vU8
4.27 4.35' 4.20 8
;tTene! ~ealthcare
8-:-' My; Q2 0.50 0.52 ,0.47 23 . '001,02 2.10 2.15 2.06 24
TenFokl~!p
. NR . Dc 04. dO.2B. dO.23 dO.32;2
vO.18 dO.97. dO.95 dO.9B '2
Tenaasco II'\C
NR 00 04
Nil
Nil
Ni
1 YdO.34 0.03 0.03 .0.03
1
TenneCoAutomatlYI
B":' ~~ 04. dO.18 dO,13 dO.24 4' \ICI:SB.10'0:521 0.68 0,45 5
TeppcOPlnrs L:P.
NR . Dca 04
0.59 0.84 .0.56 5 .' vf.91 . Ul8 .2.15 '.84 6
Tflradynelnc.
B'
Dca 0"4' 0.87 0.7:4 0.84 20
v1,07 2.8,7. 2.9'
2.84 20:
!.ell'fOn_ComrftnKallonsSy.
NR 'Oc' 04
0.06 0.07 .0.05 8
vd1.55 0.27 '0.28 '.0.28 7.
Terelr~rn
B- Dc Q4 0.67'0.73
O:.s~ 11" . vfl.75 2.904.'3.00 2.1:15.11
Terralnduslrfes
B
Dc 04~dO.().4
0.09 dO.HI 2' VCdt.08 dO.29t dO.10 110.38.. 5:
Terra Networtl ADS
NR 'Oc:'
d(1.35 dO.64t dO.41 dO.79 '4
Tesoro Petroleum
B- Dc QIII 0.10 0.20 0.05 4
VU2 1.30' 1.38.1.20.'4
TESSCOTechnologles B .Mr 03
0.36 0.36 '0.35 2'
.1.20 '1.40 1.45' 1.35.2
TfllraTech
. B+ :SD1.'01 0.22 0.24 O:U~ 6' vP0,97 .1.11 1.13 1.10 )'.
TETRATechnologlfls
B
Dc Q4 0,17 0.19 '0.15 4 ve1.1a 0.7 0.50 ,0.115 5'
TevaF'fl.rmltjdusAOR NR Dcl ()4 .0.38 .0.4.
'0.3310
vO.1l4 '1.37 '1.48
1.3014'
Te:l:8coInc
. B". Dc' 004 1.23 1.53 0.75 15
'12.14 4.91 '5.29 3.BO"21'
Te:l:llsBloted1n9logy
NA .Dc. Q4 dO.10 dO.07 dO.12 3:' 'Ii::lO
....5 dO.17. dO:10 i!O:23r 4
:tT'III!llndul'
.
B+ MY" 02
0.57 0.58 0.558
oJ:'i.15 3:381' 3.53 ';3.25.6
T.IlIslnstrurnenls
B" Dc":Q04 0.34 0.38 0,3222'
yO.a04 1.25 ...'.67 :1,23.28'
TelssReglanal Banc'A' NR Dc" ()4 0.62 0.63 0.61 8
~2.11 2.38. 2.39 2.37 8
Te.oiIlnc
;
. HR' Dcl' 04 0.27 0.27 0.27 l'
vO.41 0.91t.0.91
0.91'1
Temon.lnc'
A
O~ QIII 1.27. 1.31 1.13 10 '1014.75 '4.84. :4.68 4.50 12
IhlglObe.oom~
NA Oc,aQIII'dO.20 dO.20 dO.20 1: v~OB 111.12 d1.12 d1.12 ,
TherllgenlclCorp
B'
Dca
~.,
,
~
,D~O. 0.50. O.~~ _1._

4.02' 4.65
dt.52 d1. 1

3.36 13
d1.6i.!2

1.93. 2.20 1.19


;
:
3.52. 3.65 3:35
dO.14' N\I 110.28
Ul5. 2.041 0.~2

04

47

3 ..
2'
9.'
'"
9
3
lB
3

23
35
22

288
11.9
1.963
30.7
1.222

4.411 5.50 3.35 8


2.40 2.'7
2.33 20.
dO.2~. lfl.2~ ~0.27.2
1.9..

1.9..

0.~7. 0.80
2.11 2.20
2:94J 3.80
0.48 0.67
3.2~ 3.36
dO.2Of 'NiI
d0.28t dO.16
1.29 1.45
1.70 1.70
1.26' 1.40
0.83 0.95
1.76 1.90
4.1'
4.95
dD.25. dO.14
4.2914.84
1.58' 1.70
. 2.67 2,70
.1:07t 1.07
"5.21 5.30
dO.21 dO.21
0.53. t:!.53

1.92.

10,166
13.0'

25

267

34

509'
U~69
31.3'
4.204
2,320

29'

0.19

8
20

14'
50

0.'0
5
5.
2.00 8
9"
2.60 20
24
0.40 7
3.1011
14
dO:32 5
5
dO 8
4
50'
1.05 5
10
1:10 1
23
1.12 2 .. 24
0.65 5'
1.6012
20
2.15 20
9
dO. 4 4
25
3.97... 4
11
:1.4330
. 2"4
2:65 6'
1.07 1
4.70 11
13
dO.21 1
_0:53 1
'::"._

HI.'
End
. EP8
Price 2000 Repl
HO'OOPIE Dill
MOf1!11'

Tlnl:llbl. '. CI.h


Boolr;' . Flow
IIfShr] '~iShrJ

12"
50

1.03 1.06 1.00


d1.541 dO.62 cI2.68
d10:82 d1.49 d12.31
d1.03 dO.BB dUO"
2:17
2.31 2.09 28'
113.371 &.39 dll.06
3
0:97 1.07 0.87 2

NlIIl

10.7'1
368
3,682
11,414
\ 92.4
3.02
3.279
1,935
1.791
97.0
1,857.

n4
43.7
3,000
197
-598
215"
1,282
35.691
2.08
1,30B
9.488
161
23.7"
tl.579
18.6
43.7

15.20
3.91"

04:5046.87'

13
1.09 'd

2107

2.104'
51:25":045'
.
0.15
1.3.1- 'd 3129
53.81. 10.68 90.30' 32 2103
'3.67.
1:26'. d 3r.:!O
.
21.18"' '32
,.~
~

0.59'2

2121

4.12
Neo
Neg'
1.88
4.85

19.08' 29 2J18
14.00 '''''If
.
dB.9B '1.71 "''-[1. "3/07
....... 8.26,,1:1 .......
'1.68 "53.00 32 lr.:!7
1,44
US'
d'
..
16~12 ..'
.
14.2B 16.88 20.00' d 2/01
36.52
7.42 '6.00 11 2104
'. NIg.' 2.77 42.58' 20 1111
. 0.61 .
1.28. d' ?J01
0.62
8.50
. ,.
..Neg
2.~m 3:93 8 1r.:!5
.'; 6.70" 3:18 22.08' 1r 1114
9.111. .1.55' 30.06 '10' 1r.:!6
'3.95
12.37 48 lfl9"
'Neg: S.01 13.00. 4 3108
'5.36": 0:42' .1".81"0
:?J10
. :'.40
~4.00 . d ..; .
17.n: 1.92 9,i13. 7': 21'18'
~ 9,'25. .'"'''' '19.50' '14: 1118
,2.21" '1.05 34;93' 31' 1119
8.91 ,."2.41 ~3.50 29
.
'3.59.' :'.47'.65.7548211"
23.35
5.00 58.06' 12 '1~6
2.14.' dO.42 c S.8S 'Ct 3JOB
25BOl' 6.84 22.25 .71211'6"
':6.60
1:(1"37.31
~D:1f.lS
'.10.72
.::
29.18 12: "'~7
1.94
6.89 8 3/14
'10.56
;8.89 50.62
1t 'M!6
.1.24
0.37
d 1fJl
'3.94'
0.53
4;25 g lf1~_

Stock Spills & DMdenc:l1 '2-for-1,'OO.! 2.for1,'95,'98,'99. 3 4-lor1,'99. No Bdjlor splnoff,'96:99. 52-lor"1:98. 2~lor~1,'95:'99.. 1'S-Iqr-4,'95,'9&,'97:98,'9g: ~2-loro1":97.-''
12-lor-1,'97,'99,'OO.103-tor-2:97, 111-lor-8 REVERSE,'99.U2-fof-','99.
.,
'
.

..

PrIor Vllr 0111


t NIII V.r 0111

c,~
Siock

'NlrM of IIIUI

Rlllk I Fllell

Thermll,W8velnc'
NR Mr 03
Do'
Thermo GardJ05l's1l!1f1\l1
BThltrmoElectran
B
Oc.-2 O'
Thermo Flbbr1~k
B+. Dc:' O'
. lh~Streel.com Inc .
NR Dc
':':'
Thistle Group Hldvl5
NR Dc 0,
Del
0,
Thomas & Bells
B+
Dc~ 0,
Tt!Dma!lIndus
8
Thomas Nelson
B+ Mr' 03
Thomson Co~ _
B+ Dc 04
..
TltOMSON Muillmlldla
ADS NA Do'
JI'
.
*Thorrnduslrl.,
ADc 04
Thoratec laboralorie!l
C
THO Inc
NR Dc" O'
Dc
3.0 Pharrnllceullcal!
NR
Dc9 04
Three-FiveSyslems
BMy'O 02
3Com Corp
B
0,
3D Labs
NI=l
Dc" Q.l
'0 S(Slems'
C
QJ
30b: nleracflve
NR Ja
...,.
03
300 Company
NR
3TEC Energy
NR DC'2 O'
TIBFinancial
NA Dc 04
TIBCOSonware
NR. Ny'3 Q'
Tl()dNlsler.OnlinlCirySrch'B'
NR Dc: O~
Tldr.llIs.comIno
NR Dc 00;
TId1!l1
Tedlnologles.
Bcij
TIdewaterInc
B
;tn" Technologies 'B'
NR Sp 01
l
Tlfleny&. Co
B+ Ja 00:
:t:TImberland.8I1ncorp
NR Sp' Q',
.'T.llI'lberland
Co crA'
B De'l A.
Dc" 04
TllTleWamer Inc
8TImeWamer TelecDm'A' NR Dc 04
Den
04
TllTlkenCo.
B
Tllan Corp
B- Dc 04
"ntan Inti
NR Dr::".04
Tilan Pharmaceuticals
Nfl Dc 04
Tlta.nlumMltals
NR Dc 04
TlVoInc .
NR Oc. '04
TJx~~anllll
B+ . Jal' 04
~oo

SRlck Spill! & DIVidends. 3-lor-2;'96.;


La No Bdjfor slk dstr:OO.I' 1lor-3 REVER~
It 2.lor-1:97;98. No adj lor d!ltr01Waban.

*
..

]0

..,0

llln

"tl'ltIII lDZ

tg 0 ~
",..,,"tl

0'-0

... ::Cw

<D&'J".

42 ECO-ELE
PrIoJ

"*

Dill
lMII Y., Dahl

Earnings Guide

y ....

". RMII

Eco 5011SYIlims
Ec:op,en lnc
fco Db Ine

,College.com

.NR

EC,oft Grout! ADA


EOAP TMS S)A. ADS
EDEN Blollclence
EOGARQnlfne
E~e Petroleum
E on Inll
*Edlson Sctlool,'A'
EDQ Corp'
.'
. EOP..flIcfrttj'Id.

NR
N"
NR
NR
NR
N"
B
NR
S-

p~

ADS NR
::t:EducallonMlln,sement
NR
VkIllO CCIII_tnebI

EduTrek Inll'A'
EdwBTds(AG)Inc
E~ac:aUl6sclences
.
EEX
..
EFC 8lnoori7
.; Elno.nf Networ1l's
EFTC Corp
t:Fund! Corp
ltGein Communications
.E~t'o".c:om In<:
E Inc'
_ ~~Mwork
1
hBIgII.

NA

NR

N"

NR
NR
C

NR
NR
NR
NR
N"

"

Siock Spllta , DIvidend'


lo3-lor-2,'97,,'99.
.'

A ....

I!reet bl!!!fla

'. M.-n

IIBIlfl

1101
or

AtlUI!"

2'"

IIr",

....

&Ulll ....

lSI!hrt

...,..
'DI

Standard & Poor's

;Z001
'".
81F111I,Umll. !SJShr) 'of

Low

latl.

EJ'S:

1M ...

M...

.....

!;ow

.......

."03

"m

...

,:06 OS5

""

.'

"'0:.' i4

,,.

,.

""

flor-5 ReVERSE,'9&. '1;2'"101-1;'94, '9& .~2.for~1"9S.


.

4 2-lor.','9tt

3-tCir-2.'97: .'Hilr-3 REVERSE,'9S.

______

._______________

~~:OJ
AnnulI

NO!
Tanglbl.

QroW'lh R..,L

80011.
tslShr)

E,m. A.r.~ es Aln., .

Low
O.Q7~ 0,10
dO.30 d).3S
0.0<4
3
0' Q4 dO.05 dO.06 dO.D5 . ,. P'id1.89 . 33
Oc' 04 crD.25 dO.25 dJ.25
Vlt1.05 dO.BS. dO.85 . dO.85
1 dO.55 dO.85 dO.SS 1 .
0.38
.
0.37
10'
y1.31
'
UiO
..
1.51
0.38
1.49",11
1.70
11

.1:71
1.73
Dc' C'
0<;
Q4 dO.39 dO.37 dO.40 3
Vd'L12~dtg: ...d1.58 'd.1,6Z" 3 dO.91 d0.66 d1.06 3
Oc .... ....... ...................
...0.37 . O. ... 0.06 eW8, 1
....... .......
...
\dO.5O 50
110.50 tlO.50 1, dO.4D dO.40 dO.4D
O. a.c ~.1a dO.IO i:fO.10
Dc' Q4 dO.13 110.12 dO.13 3 ~0.67
cIO.78 dO.73 1.83 3
0.05 'dO.07 3.
0<;
04 dO.OS 110.06 dO.07
3.
'<11:10.42
dO.571 dO.54 dO.51. 3
110.18'"dO.15 dO.20 3
OC . Q4
0.39 0,41 0.32 3' '<11:10.43~:~t 0.78 . 0.63 3
D.9UO.9.c
0.88
3.
Oc:Q4 0.43 0.51 0.32 .6
2.30 . '2.10 2D
v'! 79 . 2.
2.05 1.90 21
2.24
Jo 02 dO.12 dO.08 dO.14 3 vpdO.93 dO.93 dO.g2 00.94
dO.731 dO.62 110.84
.1.10 .1.10 1.10
0~2
.,0.15 0.90' 0.90 0.90 1
O<; 04 0.22 022
1
2;18 2,03 2
0<;
UI8
2.35 1.50 6 .2.11
Jit' 02 0:46 0:46 OA4 8
0.89 0.90 .0.88: 6
1.07
1.07 '1.06 5
Fb'
...... .., .0 0.30t 0.30 0.30 1. 'O.35t 0.35 .0.35 . 1 .
. ....... ..
0, Q4 dO.53 dO.63 dO.53
Wl1,48 d2.34 d2.34 112.34 1
.1.17
'1.17
1.17 . 1
1
0<;
vd1.68 0.51 0.51 0.51 I
Fbi . 03
1':iiii
'2' wot.06 . .c.29 .c.40 :4.17 2 4.43 4.55 4.30
0, C'
0.24 0~8
0.22 '6
0.98'" 1.00 0.95 8
~~~
0.81'" 0.83 . 0.79 6
O~ 04 dO.12 0.02 dO.25 12
'fd2 7 dO.18t 0.01 dO.29 12
110:30 0.06 dl.1 1 12
.,0.72
00
0.84 . 0.84 . 1
0.88 0.8S 0.88 1
0."
Jo C2 0.12 i:i~,e . 0:09 11 'fd3.06 0.86 1.11 0.69 11
:!.49t 3.03 .1.96 5
0, C'
0.09 om . O.oe 1'" d"4.74 dO.20 00.20 dll20" f
Dc' . a4
0:8.( 0.a6 0.80
0.11 0.11 0.11 3
'fdO.21 0.32 0.3d 0.29 3
J.
Q2 1.63 dO.62 dO.85
\od1.98 tl2.30 d2.21 112.41 7
dl.03 dO.96 dl.10 5,
Vd4.29 dl.76 .d1.53 d1.90
dO.66t dO:49 "do.a5 5
OC". Q4 110.38 110.28 110.43 . '"
Dc'" Q4: a.oC2 0..c4 0,,34 .6
\"0.98 . 1.31
1.30, 9
1.3.
1.66 1.75 . l.80 o
0, Q4 lIO.2i d027 dO.31 3 vpd2.2S d1.21 d1.20 i11.23 3
d1.00 dO.91 .dUO
3
0,
0.10
~:;~.
0.10
t
~','8
0:;'0
.0:09
~i2i:i
0, 04
0.12
.63 a.gat t. 0 0.88 2
1.20
1.20 1
2
Dell .Q4 0.64 0.157 :0.80 12' vc:JCI1.08. 2.59' . 2.63 2.55 HI
3.14 '3.25 .2.87 19'
0028 dO.05J 0.05' dO.1D . 8
0.'4.1- 0,15 '0.10 .. 8
Q4 ao.OS dO.O] dCJ.10 5
0<;
d1.B8t dU5 d1,70 2.
'fd2.M d1.99t d1.93 dZ,04
jj:~ O:4S
't1.19 . 1.52
1,B7 .1.95 1.79 21 ','
1.56 1.46 22
~d'
1~. 2.00
S '.01
0~5
0.37 0.32 5
PVO.85
1.60f' 1.55 1.46 5
1.92 3
OC '. Q4 dO.20 110.19 dO.20 3 vpd1.03 dO.82 dO.52 dO.83" 3
dD.45 dD.40 dO.47 3
0, 04 O,3d 0.36 : 0.31 ~ vl.11 . 1.15
1.35 . ~:2D 2'
1.18 1.122
'1.27
...\. P\ld0. 1 1.20, .. 1.20 ]..20 .
0,
.1.35 1.35 1.35 1
0<;
6i di>:31 dO:3, diiiH 1 Vd1.53 :d1.01f dl,D1' d1.Dl ,".1 dt.OIl . dl.OS d1.08
J,10' '02'
0.,18 0.25 '0.14
'I'1-CO . 0.911 1.08 . 0.91
1.44' '1.65
5
1.16
5
0.84 0.114 1
0.84
Dc 04 O.1g 0.19 . o.,S .' L , ,~O.2S 0.63: :0.63 . 0.83
04 dO.82 cR),54 dO.eO ': 3
.Jd2.88 d2.71'.'d2.56 dU8
3. . d2.69 d2,69 'f!2.19
f.
"High.'

EI Paso Electl1c
NR
EI Paso Energ~
NR
EIP.!Cl Energy arIMI1 LP NR
EI 81110
NR
NR
CO~.'OS
Elllnllc emlcanc!'uctor 8 Elastic Network'
N"
Elbll Systems
N"
Ellit VLSIO/'I'
S.,.leml
N"
NR
tFcoril~~.
ElecT Co
'
8.
Eldorado Bentsflllr,.
NR
Electric llghlQv,'A'
NR.

f".

Educatloltal DevSloomllJt B+

Ect.aIIanIl

Nd1Qn,.

COlli.

. ,roell

"'IM oIll1u,

,,,

15

0.82
Hog
3.98'

7.24
2.080
10.4

15
35
20

2.10
6.59

111

19.9
1.33
0.18:
O.f2
5.25
'.60
~~',5 .c.B8
670 '1'.04
4.24
225
97.9
3.08
3,104
22.""
2.83'
307
~8.9
2.24

30

2S9':
'0

23
'0

20
15

1.19

17:

800

16

177

43 .

33~

10
30

222
302

13.4

"

2'
50 ..

.595
3.16

".

372

"

515

1.1
....

I'

'61
10,581
98.5'
..86
1,008

2.

'0'

.0

8.22

".

13.1
30
15.

....

....

'20.N~

a:62

202 '

....

21.

0.74'

61.7
2,S19

35

'8.
350
105

'.7

K2-lor-'1 :96:3-for2\'99.

1.3.53
4.28
0.60
4.29
0.66
0.57:
4.86

e.. ,
~o.
JSIlI'~
dO.44

En'

..."

..

16.06

dO.73

d:i:OO
ii:36
.......

3.37
8.87

34,31
0~8

~:j"

0.21

.......

My'

Do'
Dc'
.Mr'

D'
J'
0"
J.'
0'
0'

N"

2117
2/16

. d 2/2B
26 ........
2/00

,,1 ........
'14' 21'S

23. 1124
d
d . Ji{i1'
.15. 2107

25

Fl~t_l

N"

1825 .2\ 1119


1.50' d .4103
B.43 '26
2:53 .t!. ,1;3',
t.06

1.19

~O
.d
11

Com.
Slock

Nlm_Clllnu_
R" k
B:t: Eleclrr) Sclenlillc 'nd
NR
Elec1roglas Inc
NR
Ereclrolux AB erB'ADI=!
8+
Eleclronlc Arts
E!sclrrmJc.Dala Suslems A
Eleclronlcs Bouliqua Hldgs NR
Eleclronlcs For Imaging B'
Ems (Perry) Inti
B'"
EI:~Qnll:~~
NR
'slo alN Co
NR
NA
Elsevier NV' AOS
oMachlnss 1'lC
Embarr;aderoTlIchnologles NFl
_ Em!?OIel1ador~~{dinaADS NR
Embralel Pal1t' COI!! ADS NR
BEmbrfllinc
S+
EMC Corp'
EMCOR' GrouP
NR
.$: EMCORE Coro
NR
eMer;;e Interactlve'A'
NR
e.mergent Inc
NR
EmerllUSCorp
A+
Emerson EI&clrlc
.:t:Emis~her8 TechnolOGies C
Emm s Communications'A' NR
B+
Empire Disl EIBC
Empire Federal Bancorp NR.
Ernpll51NietO. Ellc~n91ADS
NFl
E~esas ICA~,ed3d ADS NR
E S iechnolo ies
S'
B!Emulflll Gorp
Emuslc.colfl Inc
N"
'tNCADlnc
.
N"
NR
Encompass Services
EncorlilMlKllC1I1
'EnCore Wire .-'
B
NR
EndBsa SA" ADS
end<!Pnarmacllulicals HI~s NR
NR
EndocardIal' Solutions
ENOOcare Inc
N"
NR
endwaYB Corp
_ ENEl S.pA ADS
NR

0.9& ,. d 3129

.0.05
13.70
10.47
1.60 60.06
3.49
1.23 23.31
3.87
1.31.
1.37. 53.93
.10
... ,,~ 37.68
....... 3.62
2."
....... 12,12
6.70
1.96
....... 0.62,
1.1111.1.81
8.49
2:02 13.7S
........ ,8,00
8,17
. Hog
....... 4:75
NH

Prior Year CIII


~ N.... I 'tN' a_f.

dO.97 . 1118
2.30 43,43 20 3/03
d3.90.
5.87" d "'3
..... 9.:50 ... 2115
....... 0.87
....... JUT d.:;...:.
....... 1.56
....... 4.68, 7 3107
....... 22.93 11 3M
24.12
d 21"
1.05
6.25
o.
....... 28.81 15
....... 33.93 3B, 2iii8
....... 3.81 13 1/OJ
4.75 . -d 2116
d1.36
dO.34
3.21 8
4.0S 44.81 ~()lm1

2.105'
8.1

...

NI.t
.
2000 Rlpl
Nov'OO. PIE CIII
Month

N"

"19

d' .......
1.1 3109
1 . 3106
d. 2118

. 14 . 1120
13 ........
3101

112lor-1 ,'96,'99 . 2-lor-1 ;00.


.

D'
0'

D'

0,'
0'
0,
0"
0'
Sp'

0,

D,
D,
Sp'

JI
Fb'

0'

D'
D'

0,

D'
J,'
J'
Dc'o
0'
0,
De"
Dc'2
0,
0,

D,
0,

D,

..

Slock Spllts& DIvidends


' 2-101 "
2-lor.1;99(lwice):T 0 slit 2-1011,ex Dee
I

~_.~.

._ ._ ...

1lo

"00
IIIn

.,,,,"

"O=lt!

.,CDZ
IC
- 0
III O

.... "T1"'ll

Or..'

""",:r:8

CD ....!.


44 ENE-EPR
P!ior v..,

om

NlrMo, .....

:t EnlIVen Corp
En.rgll PLC ADS

En.rglzer Hordlngs
Energy Corw DevlCft

"En.raY Ea.t

iEn,rgy Wilt
EnlTg~Soulh Inc
Enlrs S.,I,:."'DS

* ~!~i:.
'''''
~~
Erl.

0
0+

Jo'

0+

Obi

ENSCO Inll
Entegrlil Ine
EIlI.rcomColMU'kallo",'A'

E"~"lYCo8:
Eni;~H I ADS

il,.'~ Q1...

J.

0
Enhllnce
SYcI rp B+
ENt S.p.A. ADS.
NR
~~lIgt1len Softwllre Sol
C
nrnn Com,
A0
NR
NR

S
NR

EllIlFJlrlMProdl.ClilPBltnlII NR
Entrlde Inc .
C
E1"IITIvtJIon Comn!unIc'''' NR
EntreMed Int
, Enlrn~i;inc

Slrw!! ElIIMtu
M.., --H1gIl

R....

NR
NR
C

NR
NR
NR

rdCe

E""""'~r.rt

.,.'"-.

PIeri au.rs_

c.~

iNlxlY_o.t.

*"

Sp

Del

Q4 .

Dc

.,
Co

0.82

0.75

~
Q4

0.3'

0.45 7

R .....

i:2i d022 ~:~~


0."1
0.53
0.62

0.'3
0.65
0.61

0 8
0.52
0'"

0.35
0.29

0.....
0.32

0.32
0.23

0.52
0.56
0.50
cIO.B3 dO.93 dO.83
dO.11 dO.11 dO.11
~.~
.. 23 ~.~~
dJ.3
dO13 dO 3
Q4
0.01
0.03
0."
Q4

..... """,., .. -

E~~"Ylnc

E I SYllemil
EPIX MiId\tIl
IIPIuI'!nc
'P~ICllutJcall
,Prlsence lno
Epdse Corp

E"n;;;

Dc'
NR
C
""
.. >
B-' J11~ 01'
:J. Q2
C

8+ . Dc'.Q4
NR Co' ...
NR .If :Q2
NR
O .

C
NR
NR
NR'
NR
NR
II-

1
13
28

Del . Q4
00' 04
Co Q4
~~Co 04

EnInJSITechnCllog:lliI
ElYIIIronmental E/lmlenta
!E":nl Blochern
ENZON rnc
EOG Resoutcn
E:ON AG ADS
eOn Communk:lIIlOnt
EOTT El'llrgy Parl,..1 LP.
EIlIcor Sonw.e

ci4 0:18 0:,', . 0:15 '2


0.10 0.16 0.07
... .....- ....... .- ... ...

Co'Q4

Dc
Dc

R .....

04 i:23 ctii23 ctii:23

Dc'. Q4
Dc' Q4

Dc:

.......

.....

....... ........ ...


.-... .......
.......
...

Oc' Q4
Dcl

0.42

Low

'lII'

...
'2
m dOn di:i:1'3~:32

~
JpI
Del

0-38

......

.
P'''r)

Dc

04
Dc Q4
Dc'I. Q4

0.07
0."
0.97

iniB 0:05
0."
1.32

0.01
.0.80

0
1
1
~
17
2
7
22

i:Oi dij:Ci2 'dij:03 '2


0.14. 0.16
0.12
dO.Oft dO,OI5 dO.DB
dO.21 dO.21 dO.21

04.
~

De" Of dO.12 dO.10 dO.19 15


Dc Q4 0.19 0.19 0.19

Co

04 dO.37 dO.37 ,cK).38 .3,

Mr

Dc
Co

Q4
Q4

~.~~
0.11
0.10
3
dO.
dO.03 dO.03 :1
dO.04 dO,OJ dO.04 . 2
110.10 dO.07 .dD.11 3

,...

. Ad1181 IIrWt '::","II.I'IIIr)


EPO
Law

...

.. 99
Pv1.75
vO'.03 rIIJ.14
p111.14
.
vel1.1S dO.71
2.10
"'.03
yO.53 0.71
p.,1.78
1.89
d1.08
1.64
vp:Q.Bt dO.52.
.73
'11."7
'11.20
'.77
.111.76 . 0.921
113.80 5,20'
~_.~9
dO.93
l'C

H',.

2.10

......
,0.0'

. 2001
,at . 81N11E.I ......t.I IIBM
High' Low
Ell ...

"-'

1.90:
Nil 'd020 . 5

...... , .......

dO.42
2.13
0.71
. 1.89
2."
dUO
1.75
1.79
. 2.66
e."2
dO.93
1.42' 1.50
0.65. 0.89.'.

.27

'2

dl.00
<:.05 '2
0.71 1
'1.89.
1.1'. 3
dO.728
'1.70
1.75
0.7'
10
dCI.93 , 1.
1.40 21
0.60 26

".00

...~
....

0:53. 0:56 .

,
..,

vpO.52
n.51
1/2.25 ,2.89t
2.95' '2.85 "
1.18 .. 1.38 . 1.02 3
...0.15
2.54t 2.58 . 2.50. 8
'101.65
"d3.65 od2.116 d2.96 d2.96 '.1:'
vpdO.71 dO.18t 0.25: dO.60 2.
vd2.67 'cI2:7oU 112.34 d3.13 2
WO.75 dO.73 dO.57 dO.88 2
0.09.18
...0.11 0.13t.0.17:
'1
.... 53
0.10 '0.10 .0.10
.vO.25 0.28t .0.38' '0.19 "2
d0.17
022t
0.37.: 0.16.10'
113.99 2.87t 3.23. 2.47 '23'
2.64 3.58 . 1.34
vo1O.28 . O.08t .. 0.10 0.05' 3
voetO.09 : 0."7
0.50
0.48
1,
.dO.9" dO.91 dO.91
vd1.
dO.80 dO.eo cIO-.BO
"'1.46 dU3t dO.40 dG.64: 18
1/0.31 . 0.70
0.70'
0.70
vd1.47 d1.55 d1.55 d1.55
3
...0.91 0:6ot 0.65 '0.56
3
WO.24 dO.17 dO.17 dO.17 1
' .1.11 dO:21t dO.20 d022
2
vpcIOA8 dO.54 dO.51 dO.58 3
M .....

Standard & Poor's

Earnings GuIde

....-

4~~

..

2.30
2.35
2.41
OO.3fj~ dD.04 .~1.01
1.4J~ 1.50 1.35

...,.;

10

13

2:38 2.24 12
....... ._ .... ..._ .. ...
1':84 2:15 "'1:12 '2

2.50

'0."
1.151
2.92t
2.66

0:59

0.061
dl.231
dO.10t
0.95
d1.7'
.0.62t

dO.04t
0.19"
dO.1~

220

10

d3'i~

cIO.B
0.30

2
18

ii:o:i 0.04

1.4.6
~:~,'
4.43
1. 8 230
3,,74 . 1,92

"

0.61
0.55
0.06
0.06
1
d1.23 d1.23
1
dO.06 cIO.13 11
0.95
0.95
dt.63 dUO
0.65
2
dO.04 cKt04 I
0.13
0.29
3
dO.18 dO.20 3.

o.sa

31.008
32'
"0112

'7
20
21
10
0
15
;0.

.~
.._...

.... .
. ..
....
....
,

40.

.. .,

...L

05

20
15

'

i:i:48 dii:32

. ii:08t
d2.B4. d1 .95
dO.46 clI.09
0.34'
0.42

......

'"

177
1,872
30-0
2279
722
74.1
",284.

50' m
" IBO
I.'
,

Nn
0.21
1,90
1.75 '8
2.12
2.05
1,85
2.00
5:7'3
'.19
dO.16 dO.16
1
1.57 21
1.75
2.35
1.60 26
0.90
0.90
3
0.81
0.69
3.10
3.~
13
3.48
3.2
'2

Dc
Sioell: $111111
& DIvidendi
1 2-foH:SB. 2 5-lor-1,'OO. 12for~ 1,'99. 4 2-lor.1."94. ~2lor~1,'OO. 3-for.2,'95.' 7 3-lor-2.'98.
1l1.lor-] REVERSE, '98. It 3-for-2.'OO.
NR

5- ~roJ "n"uII
'01 Growth R... I.
IlL' Alt."" (I MI.)

2.30

~~08.'
.81
2.10
1.931.
4.91
dO.1~
1.66
1.92
0.90
0.74
3.07
3.3"
2.36+

..

11
7.. '

''''

1'5
50

....

....

....

N"
TI"gIbll
!Ioolc
~IShrJ

13.52
0.16
5.44
13.12.
5.63
13.11

~:I.
".61

N'g

11.' .

,20.'1
.0.40.
7.88'
.. 9.40
3.47.

3.'
2'2
215 . Nil
8.773 : 29.7 .
,15.07
.3'
1,333
10.79'
0.53
'.64
0.22

'"

(SIS"I')

.......
.......
dO.90

.......

3.05

.......

2.19

.......
8:1'2
. 2.46
0.76

.......
.......
.......

......
0.9'
dO.77

d2O

5.02

. Z.13

Nil
85.2
55.8

0.87

.........

NOj

dO.64
0.29

SO.O

2.
2.93
9.41

17.0

SO,

~ii~4
8,664
. 258
4.17
.192
"B
1.U
2E.
0.19
"S.8
3.66

......

PrIor Y.. r Dill


i Nlxl YMr Olle' .

Monttl ";..

C...
R ..

Nil'
E"
Price
ZOllO Repl
Ncnl'oo .PIE . D1le

En,

Naml 01 I

u .1/04
d .......
19.31 ,'.~
14.87' d,
20.25
'0
.3 2/16
22.12
.2 2/"
't7.25. 11
1.81d 12113
19.68
11" 2/02
22.2:5 t3.12/27
13..:)1. 14 2/1.
.2
61.06
1.06
d ~~:
84.75
'8 .1 8
24.31. 31 . 1(27
7.00
29,50. 56
4M2 "14
2123
2".81" 21 .......
26.82
10 2101
1.37
it 3/28
1.. .31
d
,....
d
17. .56
'2.56: ,d. :::::~
.15.37: ... 'N
'.1.50- '15 1130
29.50

2;"7

......

'.56

&Son In'
eSp.ad Inc'A'
Esperlon Therapeutics'
~:~lr8"Communication5
Es irito Sal'lto I=lnlADS
ESPS lnc
ESS Technology
Ellerllne Tedln610gies
:t:~~~n.~::1'1 Inlerlors.
.E ICo
,' .
ITOYIlnc .
''E1lI8uta BancCow
.
Eurn909.com AI ADS
EVBnS&Suthurl~, ~~ut8f
Everes!"R. Gro
EIII~een ResoLKces
"Ever rusl f:=lnandal Grp
Evoke ComlTtunicahonil
:t: EvolvB.SollWarlf
Evolvln':; S';"'lrns
EW. Blanch :Holdings
Elsbyte Corp
Exaclec.h Inc
.E'IlIr Corp .'
elcahbur Technolooles
. Elcollegacy
.'
excel Tl!chnofogy

lios
..

0.30. 28.50....

12/16

dO.2Q1 55.81
'.'. 21'1
42.43 .15 2/'0
7.22
57.50_ 22
1.75 22
4.09
15.50 33
1,2"
dO.79
1.03
~ 2103
~.~6.
3117
.'2 113.69 3.06
1/31
39'.21
1.84.
0.81
17.31 2:5
1.59
1. 0. d1.38 8.00
.d 212'
........ 9.81 .. 16 2/'0
7..18
0.66
. 06
d
......
d .2109
5.03 t.l2 '3.81
....... '3.03 d ......
3.09

:Gii

.......

.......

ms

.......

l~for-41REVERSe:904:2lor1,1I7. '2forl,'96\97.

.
.

10 Adj

Siocl!

. Rln

. EQUANT N,V. ADS


Equlla'l tflC
EQulnlx Inc
.
:t:"Equllsble Bank
-E~~lIable Resources
Equity Mat1l:ollf'g
.EQulty Officii Properties Tt
Equity on
.
E~lty ~~Is~~,ntlal Proo Tr
Er sson lM Tel'S'ADS
Erie Indemnlly 'A'
ESe Medical Svslel'!'tS
:tESCO TechnolQ\llBS
Esenjayexploratlon
eShare Communications

28.56'

... ,

Com.

u.

NR
NR
NR
O'

NR
NR
e
NR
NA

NR
NR
0-

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR:

C
0

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
C
B

BNR
Ne'
NR
NR
0+

C
Ne

sC

NI;I(

s-

Stock Split, & DIvidends

for ~:9B.

12_1

No adj for 51\(dslr 01 First'Colo,,}


I

~
~
'00
Dl

'On

~~

,,""DlIDZ

0
III O

(Q

","T1"
0(".0
-o:r",

(Q"'J:-.

._- WES-Wll~
126

Prlor 'arDlm
"'.1 Y_ Dim
Neme Of Inu.

I.

8+

WI!I Tel,Servlces

NR

N tau'"
. ..
Irter
.8 ... 1ElUlnltelpllr)
MMn HIgh' Low

2000

. ,

Com,
Siock
'111ft'll F1101'l

WestPIla""Ii:."Oc:lil
S~

_ .. Guide
Earning,s
04

0.23

023

04
Del Q4

0.25

0.25

Dc
Dc

of

eafI.

0.23. 1
'0.24

.,"'
. AmII'

1!P8....

'.
Shel E111..,,,. !SISM '01
Mill!
High tow Eitl.

'12.57 1.2~
"vO.17

D.90.

1.25

1.25 1

1.01.

0.98

W'III1""~Bancorpor1llonA
O.~ 0.56 ::'0.55 11
y1.94 I 2.16' 2.17.2.15.12
WlIs!lIrFll'1lServlcel
NR Mr :....
vd1.79 "1.13' 1.13 1.13 1
WeltbllnkCoID
NR Dc. 04 020
0.20 .0.20 1
vO.96 0.001 0.90 0.90' 2
Wesicoalitlospltailly
NR Dc 04 0.23 0.37 0.09 2 '\cO.64 0.5606 0.56 '0.55' 2
Wellen TlICttnologlel'A' NA Mr'.03
0.01 0.03 0.01 7
wo:22 0.131" 0.16 0.06 9
WeslerFlIdFlnanaal'
NR' Dc 04 0.46 0 6 0.46 2
y1.62
t:Western Digital
C
JeJ Q2 dO.13 dO;12 dO.14 7 YMl,89 cI.6: dO.59 dO.56 7
Wes1emGasRelources 9Dc 04
0.39 0.44 0.34.' 5 ~.83
1.16' 1.31' 0.95 6
WeslemMul1lple.A
NR Dc Q4 0.04 0.04.: 0.04 '3'
vO.02 0.11t 0.12': 0.11' 3
Western R"OUrc81
8
Dc "04
0.34 0.51 0.20'6
yMO.01 1.60' 1.87 1.30 9
Weslem 81me Bencorp NR Dc4: ...
....... .:........
y1.09 1.01. 1.01 '1.01 1
",,-~eslemWlreless'A'
'NR I ,?c 104 0.07 0.17 dO.14'16 rid1.94 0.311 0.50 0.02 18
BIInklnQ ADS NR " w
M38
3,2(1.. 3.27 3.14" 2
WeslpolntStll\lens
NR [)cI- OC 0.30 0.30 ,0.26 7
y1.84 1.52~ 1.53.. 1.50' 7
Westport~esourcllS
NR Dc 04
0.24 0.36 0.12 2
pwO.38 1.07 1.51" 0.62" 2
.:tWestvllcoCorp
B
Ot' 01 0.61 0.65 0.55 4 OP2.53 3.OS13.45 2.50' l'
Wes~
one'
B- Dd 04
0;13 0.1-4 0.12 2
vtO,30' 0.34 : 0.J.t 0.33' 2
W81Seal CrA'
B..;. Je "04
0.67 0.72 0.62 .2. ri1.11
1.23' 1.'23 1.22 2
"WlI)'erhaeul.tCo
8+ Dc' '04 0.85 1.00' 0.80 11 'IlJ2.98 4.Q6I. 4.30 3.&4 15
WFS Financial
NR Del 04
0.86 0.71 0.61 2
1.91 2.56' 2.80" 2.31 2
t:WGL.Holdlngs
A- . Sp,' 01
0.91 0.95' 0.89 3
pt1.79 1.98 2.00 '.1.95 10
wtllr1poolCorp
B+ I, I?C Q4 1.44 1.52 1,22 8
y4.56 5.S0 5.70 5.-40 9
WhiteEllICIronlc
D.slonl NR I W
.. ......
wO.OS
WhiI.hlll JeweII"r"
NR' Jel':04
0.97 1.02' 0.88 . 5
VU8
0,971' 1.03 0.86 6
WhllmllnCorp
B- Dell 04 0.12 0.13 0.09 11 YdO.07 0.63 0.68 0.50 '12
.W~eyHoldln9
B
Dc 04
0.76 o.n
0.75 7
y2.70 2,95 2.97 2.94 7
tWholt' Foods Market
B
Sp .. Q1
0.58 0.60 0..57 12 YPc1.68 2.33 2.35 2.25 14
WHXCoID
C
Dc
y,ad2.30 d1.50 d1.50 d1.50 1
WildOall Merit.
NFl Dc" 04
0.00& 0.06' '0.03 9 0va.54 0.511 .0.53' 0.50 9
Wil1l1in.tt.lndus
8+ ~
04. 0:78 0.83 6.71 .11'
'12.33 3;13 '3.20 3.05. 12
Wil1brosGroup'
NR Dc 04 dO.27 d02S' ctO.29 2
VdtS4 d1.231 dC.56: d1.43" 3
WilllllftlsColllSeamG~AllyNR.\Dc
~y1.21 1.80.1.80,1.80
1
W1IMahlsOommunicurtl NR DcQ4 dO.-49 dIJ.4D 1:).54 8 vtd0.87 d1.4st dO.B6.. d1.7'l 13
WilliamsOos
9
Dc" 04
0.17 0.20" 0.12 10 y,a0.12 1.28t 1.35 . 1.15 1j
t:Willamlltictuslrl.s
B- JI
_......
.
....c.41;
0.521 0.52 0.52'1
'W1lRama-&noma
B: J.'. 04
0.72 o.n 0.61 21
'y1.18 0.94. 0.98 0.81-' 21
'WllmlngtonTrust Corp
A+ Dc 04
0.95 0.9S 0.91 12.
';3",21' 3.78 4.00 3.65" 15
WilshirllSIllte8ank
NR' [}e'l
M.89
1.7Ot 1.70 1.70' 1
Wilson.ll
TheLeather&perls NR Ja11l Q4 3.40 3".43' 3:35 4 yoUM
2.35 2.37 2.33 4

~w'SIOiic

Standard & Poor's


200

81,..' E.llm ....


M.-n
High

1
Phf)
Low

I5-Y,Pro]
Net
EPII AnnUli TlrIglbl. CI.h
'0'
Qrow'Ih Rws.
Booll
Row
&IL n ......
CI Mil.) CS/Shrl (SlShr)

1.19lo
1.19

1.19

1.19

13

469

11.10

1.22

1,15

23

"'562

4.85

2.36

2.40

2.33 12

11

0.981 1.00 0.96 2


.......
0.6()l. 0.71 0.48 9'
1.87 1.88 1.85 2
dO.27. dO.26 cIO.28 2
1.!59' 2.20. 1.25 6
0'.21t 0.24 '0:19 3
1:84 2.10 1.40 7
1.27 '1.27 1.27 1
0.60. 1.40 dO.03 17
. 189 189 189 1
1.981 2.10 1.65 "7
1.48 .1.68 1.28 2
3.301.. 3.30 3.30' 1
0.46' 0;48 0.44'2
1.92' .1.92 1.92 1
'4:241 5.40 3. 5 14'
3.03t 3.25 2.81 2
2.05 '2:05 2.05 2.
6.05 S.50 5.00 8
0.44' 0.49 0.39.2
1.171 '1,20 1:05' 8
. 0.75 0.79' 0.70 .'2
'3.18 3.25 3.10 7'
2.82 2.88 2.76 5
0.20 0:20 0.20 1
. 0.311 0.33 0:29 8
3.391' 3.96 2,60 12
0.391 0.65
Nil 3
1.59 1.59.1.59
1
d1.9S1-d1.31 d2.65 9
1.28 1.40 1.10 12
1".191 1;39
~:12 4.30
'2.10 ,2.10
2.M 2.89

1.01 'l2
3.85 15.'
2.10 1
t!l3 4

'".

Mohll'
... li
:P8
End'
EPIl
PriCI 21100 Rep!
NO'OO'PI! DI',

"

"4.;94: 22.75' '18 2/15


1.35 '215.62 21

210
1/19

298
7.82
34.06- 16
117
Neg
...... 2~50 2
.
34.6
5.04
....... 7,50 8 1/2
'2JlI4
9
t10
5.821.21 5.12" '9
25
122
1.93 dO.76 4.06'1.31- 1/21
7
82.9 16.40
21.:n
17
1.958
Neg d2.25
3.25 d
5
12
1911 . 6.31
0.76 24.3':" 21'
'5'
44.8
1.52'
5.78 '53
5
2.036
11.63
..... 22.87 14 '3129
24.6 . 10,14
10.50 10 112-4
39
. 567
NlI9
'39.68
2114
12. 8,854
12.94
37.06 12
.
14
1,883
.NlIg 3.32' 6:37 : Ii' '2110
139 10.94
17.62 18 .,1 .
6
3.663 'l2.77
3'.89 '27.56
9 2f'l2
23
358
Neg
0. 7 16.31 54 2110
18
524
10.52' 2.87"23.68
19 3117
16 12,262 27.15
fl.08 43.75 11 .......
295
6.23
18.25 7 1119
..
1,031 15.97
27.68 ,.. 1130
11 1Q,511' 1.,29
9.64 39.12 7 1/24
...
58.0'
'.47
0.10
7.25
. ..
21
315
4,54
6.75 7 2/28
14
2.1fl4
Neg
1..37 15.00 24' 2fl;H
8
0416 22.65
....". 35.56' 12 tft'"
21
1,836 1024.
3.47 58.68' '25 2116
, 717
6.03
4.31
'.56
d '2111
25
721.
2.03
.......
4.37 '9 2109
13' 4,078 21.16
4.47 '49.12 16 1119
18'
'177
5.01
0.09 5.43
d' 211-4
12.3'
3.47
1.21 7.87, "4
.
2.023.
3,78
10.87 d 2107
18 8.593 "3.07
2.04' 35.37 ,28 ' 2109
20
42.9
3.81'
0.74. 2.62. 5;'12107
23
1;384
6,73
1.93 16:75 16 3115
10
654' 10.34
55,87" 15 1/20
25.8
7.5.7
13.50"; 8
.
16
544
6,90
2.34 16.62' 7" '3101
"

C..I

"

.Prlor V.. r Dill


1: Nul Vllr Oil.

Com.
Stock
Rank'. Fiscal
."'I",e DrIssue,
Jo'
B
WindRI....~Systems.
Wink:Communlcallons NR Dc
8+. Je~
w,nn.Oi.leStores
Ao,
Winnebago Indus
B
00'
WlnS!arCommunications C
NR 0'
WlntruslFinancial
, Wlr. On. Tecl1nolog1es NR 00'
N" 0',
WIrelessFacilitIes
Wisconsince~~~ ;fans B' Co'
WIsconsln.Ener Corn B' 0,
NA: Dc
WItSoundVlewGroup
NR D,
WltnllssSyst.ms
NR D,
WJ Cornrnunil::allons
B- J,'
:tWLR Foodslnc
NR Dc
WMCLId ADS
B- J,'
WMS Induslrlos
WoftersKluworNVADS NR Dc
NR Dc
WolllerineTuba .
Dc'
B
WolyerlnllWorld Wide
Womflll.comNlltworks NR Dc

B>
Iwoodl'lead Indus
B
WoodwardGoyemor
Workflow.Managem"nt NR
WorldAcceptance
B'
C
WorldAccess
NR
WorldHeart
tWorld Wrlsl1ingFed.Enll'A' ,,!R
WoridComIne
B
WortdGal"Communle'A' NR
WorIdQuesl.Nelwori<s NR
NR
Woronoco 8ancorp
A-'
:t:WorthinglonIndus
.NAWPP Group ADS
~~~~~~U~Il'
Wrllll,
Wm Jr'
WSFS Fina"clal
Wyndham'lnll'A'
. X-Rll. Inc'
XCllr. nllllne
Xeel"Energy,
-Kellum N.V.ADR
-'

Siock SpillS & Dividendi I 3-for'-1,'98.I 2-lor-1,'96. '2~for-l.'Q7. '4AdIlor 5%,'99.:S2-forl,'98. I 3-lor:2,'9tC'i2:'or1,'00. 1.0%~'96: 2-!or1,'95. 'll3-lor2,'OO.II No eCll.lor'slk dstr,1l8.
., 3-lor.2,'98,'99. 133-for-2,'ge:2.lor.1,97.143-for-2,'94(tw1ce):2.lor-l,'98.
1110%;'00.
. .
'.
'..
'.,
. .,'

.-- ... . .. :..... _.:. ...


'

Sp'
S,'
A,

Mr,a
Dc
0,
Ap

De"
Dc
0,
D,
My

De';
0'
Dc
0'

B"

,B
NR

0,

B'

Dc"
Dc
Dc'
0,

NR

B'
NR

':l

l~._.,

r No adrlor stk.dsfr WHG'Resorts &. C


132.lor.1:94. It 210r-1,'98.

:E
o

'""0

'l:JC

..

'l:Jn

!!:'"

"tl'llo~

.,"'2

IQ ... 0

.. o

",."",

o '- /:,

... :I:w

",b,J>.

Docket No. P-03-4


WORKPAPERS

to FJH-7

(Consisting of Wor1<paper # 1)

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-7
Page 1 of 3

Projected Growth in Gross Domestic Product


for use in the Two-Stage Growth (Compound and FERC
Weighted Average) Discounted Cash Flow Model
Going Forward Based Upon August 2003

Year

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Average

EtA
5.4%
5.5%
5.8%
5.7%
5.8%
5.7%
5.8%
5.6%
5.6%
5.8%
5.9%
5.9%
5.7%
5.6%
5.9%

SSA
5.5%
5.3%
5.2%
5.1%
5.0%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%

Average
5.5%
5.4%
5.5%
5.4%
5.4%
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
5.1%
5.3%
5.3%

Source of Information:
Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2003
Social Security Administration: 2003 S81 Annual Report

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-7
Page 2 of 3

Projected Growth in Gross Domestic Product


for use in the Two-Stage Growth (Compound and FERC
Weighted Average) Discounted Cash Flow Model
Applicable to the Year 2002

Year

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Average

Notes:

EIA
5.8%
6.1%
6.2%
6.3%
6.3%
5.8%
5.7%
5.8%
5.8%
5.9%
6.1%
6.1%
6.2%
6.2%
6.2% (1)

SSA
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%

Average
5.5%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.5%
5.4%
5.5%
5.5%
5.4%
5.5%
5.5%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%

(1 ) Projected growth in Gross Domestic Product


assumed equal to 2020.

Source of Information:
Energy Information Administration:
Annual Energy Outlook 2002
Social Security Administration:
2001 551 Annual Report

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-7
Page 3 of 3

Projected Growth in Gross Domestic Product


for use in the Two-Stage Growth (Compound and FERC
Weighted Average) Discounted Cash Flow Model
Applicable to the Year 2001

Year

2006
2007
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average

EIA
4.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.2%
4.4%
3.6%
4.1%
4.5%
4.6%
.4.6%
4.4%
4.7%
5.0%
5.3%
5.5%

SSA
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.2%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%

Average
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.4%
4.6%
4.6%
4.9%
4.9%
4.7%
4.8%
5.0%
5.1%
5.2%
4.8%

Source of Infonnation:
Energy Infonnation Administration:
Annual Energy Outlook 2000
Social Security Administration:
2000 5S) Annual Report

Docket No. P-Q3-4


WORKPAPERS
(none)

to FJH-8

Docket No. P-03-4


WORKPAPERS

to FJH-9

(Consisting of Workpapers

# 1 - 7)

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-9
Page 1 of 3
2.

BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS. ,~UGUST 1,2003

Consensus Forecasts Of U.S. Interest Rates And Key Assumptionsl


Consensus Forecasls-Quarterly Avg.

-------- ----------- --------_.--~---History------------------------- ----.---- ----------.-Ave-rage For Week Ending------ -Average For Month---- Lates! Q
Interest Rates
Julv 18 !!:!lYl.!
July 4
June 27
Jun
May
8m.,.
202003
1.02
0.96
1.13
1.21
1.22
1.16
1.26
1.25
Federal Funds Rate
4.00
4.00
4.04
4.25
4.22
4.25
4.25
4.24
Prime Rate
UBOR,3-mo,
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.05
1.10
1.28
1.30
1.23
1.01
1.01
1.01
0.97
1.06
1.21
1.22
1.10
Commercial
Paper. I-mo.
0,91
0.90
0.88
0.88
0,94
1.09
1.15
1.06
Treasury bill. 3-mo.
0,96
0.96
0,96
0.91
0,94
1.11
1.17
1.07
Treasury bill. 6-mo.
Treasury bill, I yr.
1.10
1.08
1.07
1.02
1.01
1.18
1.27
1.15
1.45
\.35
1.31
1.28
1.23
1.42
1.62
1.42
Treasury note. 2 yr.
2.82
2.60
2.49
2.36
2.27
2.52
2.93
2.57
Treasury note. 5 yr.
3.93
3.72
3.58
3.42
3.33
3.57
3.96
3.62
Treasury note. 10 yr.
4,95
4.78
4,67
4,54
4.45
4,61
4.99
4.68
Treasury Long-Tenn
Avg.
5.45
5,30
5.20
5.00
4,97
5,22
5,74
5,31
Corporate Aaa bond
6,57
6.42
6.36
6,26
6.19
6.38
6,85
6A7
Corporate Baa bond
4,71
4.56
4,51
4.47
4.33
4.41
4,74
4.49
State & Local bonds
5.67
5.52
5AO
5,24
5,23
5.48
5,81
5.5 I
Home mortgage rate

Key Assummions
MajorCuTTency Index
Real GDP
GDP Price Index

Consumer

Price Index

4Q
~OOI
105,3
2.7
0.5

0.9

1Q
2002
108,2
5.0
1.3

-0.7

1.4

4Q
2003
1.0
4.0

IQ
2004
1.0
4,0

1.1

1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.6
2.9
4.0
5.0
5.6
6.7
4.8
5,8

1.2

1.0
0.9
1.0
1.1

1.5
2.7
3.9
4.9
5.5
6.6
4.7
5.7

2Q
2004
1.2
4.2
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.6
2.0
3.2
4,3
5.2
5.9
6.9
4.9
6.1

1.2

1.1
/.2
1.3
1.7
3.0
4.2
5.1
5.8
6.8
4.8
6.0

JQ
2004
1.6
4.6
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.4
3.5
4.6
5.4
6.1
7.0
5.0
6.3

4Q
2004
1.9
4.9
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.8
4,8
5.5
6.2
7.2
5.2
6.5

Consensus Forecasts-Quarterly Avg.

-.---------------.------.-----._.- History --------------------------------3Q


:!OOI
104.4
0,3
2.2

JQ
200.1
1.0
4.0

2Q
2002
104.4
1.3
1.2

30
2002
100.0
4,0
\.0

40
~002
100.0
IA
1.6

IQ
2003
95,1
1.4
1.4

2Q
200r
90,8

3.4

::!.2

2.0

3.8

0.8

30
2003
90.\
3.6
1.4
1.6

1,7

1.3

40
200J
90.2
J.8
1.5
1.9

2Q
2004
90.9
3.8
1.7
2.1

10
2004
90.4
3.8
1.7
2.0

3Q
2004
91.4
3.7
1.8
2.1

4Q
2004
92.2
3,6
1.8
2.2

'Individual panel members' forC'C.lsts are on pages 4 lhrough 9. Hislorical dall for ;nlerrsl raTes e.~cC'rl llBOR is [rlm Federal Reserve RC'lease (FRSR) H.15. llBOR quores available from The Wall SlreC'1 Journal. Definillon~ reportC'd here are slime as those In FRSR H.t S. Treasury yields are reponed on a conSlant maturity basis. Historical dala for the U.S.
FedeD.1 Reserve BQlIrd's Major Currency Indc:\ is from FRSR H.IO and G.5. Hislorical data for Real GDP and GDP Chained Price Index are from the Burcau of Economic Analy!.i!.
(BEAt Consumer Price Index (CPI) history is from the Departrnenl of Labor's Bureau of Labor Sl.Itislics (BLSI. F;gllres Jllnwn!o"lQ
100) R(!al GDP and GDP Chain~d P"i~~
Intia G~ C'DnsemflS/Q"e~GSIS'''lSeti Dn a speciill quest;n" su",t:v Ihis "'until a/the pilnel membel'S.

U.S. Treasury

Yield Curve

U.S. 3-Mo. T-Bills

W k .nded July 18. 2003 and Year A!;}o "'s.


3Q 2003 and 4Q 2004 Consensus forecasts
--V

-X-Week .ndlkl 7116103


--+--Consen

6mo

02004
3Q 2003

1yr

'0,.,.

2yr
M.lunties

Corporate
As of wee".

.~ 175

a!l 150
125

100
Aaa

~
o

1997

minus

'99. '99'

'0
1996

10
1997

1Q
'99B

Corporate
10-Year

2000

~O
175
1~0
125
100
Bond

zoo,

Yield
Yield

2002

u.

Consen.us

10
2000

75

25
0

Z003

--

'0
2001

u.S. Treasury
.375
350
325
300
275
250
225

T-Bond

Con'en ..

1Q
1999

As

""

I~

25

3-Mo;i~~~:~'Ury

July 18, 2003

400
r-------------------,,400
.375
Baa Corporale
Bond Yield
350
minus 10-Year T-Bond
Yield
325
300
275
250
.. 225

75

1C).~'e;~~Ol1

Bond Spreads
ended

FOAIC8S1

r---------------.,.-----"

7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
i: 4.50
84.00
~3.~
Q. 3.00
2.~
2.00
1.~
1.00
Q~

rAga

---....-Cort.en'<l

& 10-Yr. T-Note Yield

(Ou'l"[enyA.......ge) History

4__

__

'0

'0

'00'

2003

Yield

7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.~
.3.00
2.~
2.00
1.~
1.00
~~

Curve

or week ended July 1B. 2003

375,...--------------------.,,375

J
-

350
325
300
275
250
225
200
17"5
1S0
125
100
75

minus

350
325
300
275
250

T-Bond 'field

lD-Year

3-Month

T -Bill

YIeld

225

200
175
150
125
100
75

SO

25

25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100

o ;,---+---+----+----+--I---+--t

25
-SO
75
-100

1997

199B

19'39

2000

200'

2002

2003

Docket No. P-03-4

12

BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS.

1,2002

Consensus Forecasts Of U.S. Interest Rates And Key Assumptionsl


--

Federal
Prime

__

Funds Rate

L1BOR,3mo.
Commercial Paper, ]mo.
Treasury bm, )-mo.
Treasury bill. 6mo.
bill. I )T.

Treasury nole, 2 yr.


Treasury nOlc, 5 yr.
Treasury

nole, 10 yr.

Treasury bond. 3D.yr.


Corporate Aaa bond
Corporale Baa bond
State & Loei":ll bonds
Home

1.85
4.75
1.90
1.79
1.71
1.81
2.23
3.15
4.46
5.17
5.54
6.69
8.12
5.26
7.09

Rare

Treasury

mortgage

rate

Cum:ncy

IndcA

Re.l GDP
GDP Price Index

Consumer

1.88
4.96
1.89
1.76
1.69
1.77
2.17
3.08
4.41
5.14
5.54
6.73
8..13
5.26
7.09

._

IQ
2000
94.7
2.3
3.8
4.3

Key Assumptions
Major

.-

__

__

History----- _.'

----Avg:. For Week Ending----Dec.21 De.c.J4 Dec.?


Nov.30

IntereSI Rates

JANUARY

Workpaper # 1 to FJH-9
Page 2 of 3

Price Index

2.02
5.00
2.00
1.9\
1.75
1.84
2.2\
3.02
4.23
4.92
5.38
7.04
7.99
5.21
6.84

2Q

2QQQ
97.5
5.7
".1
".8

1.95
2.09
5.00
5.10
2.11
2.10
1".99
2.03
1.87
1.91
1.91
1.92
2.23
2.18
3.03
2.78
4.25
3.97
4.92
4.65
5.33
5.12
7.10
6.97
7.95
7.81
5.15
5.04
7.02
6.66
Hj story--_ -

3Q
2000
99.2
1.3
1.9
3.5

4Q
2000
102.3
1.9
1.8
3.0

--

-----

--

--.

IQ
200 I
101.9
1.3
3.3
4.2

2.49
5.53
2.40
2.40
2.20
2.17
2.33
2.73
3.91
4.57
5.32
7.03
7.91
5.05
6.62

1<1
2Q
2002 2002
1.7
1.7
4.7 .
4.7
1.8
VI
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1..8
1.9
.2.2
2.3.
).~9
3..]
4.2 .' 41}
1,9
.5.3
'5.4
..16.9
~~
'. 7.8} : t.8
S.O C
:!.05.i

40200]

3.07
6.28
3.04
2.96
".69
2.71
2.82
3.12
4.12
4.73
5.48
7.17
8.03
509
6.82

...
2Q
200 I
105.3
0.3
2.1
3.0

. Consensus Forecasts Quarterly A -,

__

lAresT Q.

-----------Month--------:
Nov.
Oct.
~

2./7
5.18
2.14
2.08
1.94
1.97
2.24
2.86
4.08
4.78
5.31
6.94
7.93
5.11
6.75

3Q
200\
104.4
-1.3
2.3
0.7

.-5;9

4Q

200~
2.5
5.5
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7
3.0'
3,7
4.7
.5.3,
5.6

3.3
.4A

IQ
21.1
2003 2003
3.0
3.3
6.0
6.3
3.2
3.5
3.2 3.5
3.0
3.3
3.1
3.5

.;5.1
..5.5
6,97.0
'7.8.' .7.9
. $~

'6.9' 'i;~9; 7.1t

3A

7.3"'.7.5

i.i

.l:;o~.&;iilor~sts.59'..art"tlyA

0.

4Q'
200 I
105.2
1.0
1.3
0.8

3.7

4.0
4.2
4.9
5.1
5.5 ..5.6
5.8 '5.9
7.2 : 7.3
8.0 :.,8.1
SA
5.5

'i;

.dQ,,:

'~Q.:."

}Q<.:'Q
-2002 ;2002

IQ
~

2Q
20113

.: 0,4;

"2.6'

~.7''

200t .. :~:.
105,0 j04~ iJ!4.5}i04:1!~i9164,.1
I

'3;6

3..4'

1.7:',:.:"1:; .-1.7

1.8

io it:

1.8"

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.1

3.9'

2.1

llndividual panel members' foru:lsu ue on page!. 4 through 9. HiJ>(OlIc.1 dala fOt inlcrcslllies
except LIBOR. is from Federal Reserve Release (FRSR) H.\ S. UBOR q\lote5
a~aill~le horn ~
~Qll S,ru/.IOl.lmo! and Te{~rar~. Definitions
reported here are same a5 those in FRSR H.15. All Treasury yields we reponed on II wnslant maturity basis.
(
Histoncal dall far the U.S. Federal Rr.serve BOllld'~ Major Currency Index is from F'RSR H.IO and G.~. Historical dall for Real GDP and GOP Otained Price index ~ from the
Bureau of &onomic Analysis (BEAl. Consumer Price Index (epn history is from the Departmem ofubor's
BulUu of Labor Sialislic:!o (BLSJ. -llI1rrrsr rtUr dakI./Dr Q4
2001baud DRhisror1lIl d/IlD rhTtJlIgh rhr lVuk endrd Durmber 21. lJrJUJ/Dr Q4 2001 Mlljor Cllrrrllcy Indu IIUO is based on dal4t 'IIrollgll wrd: rndrd Dcnmkr 21. Fit:uns shown for (J4 2001 Real GDP. GDP Clulined PriLtt /ndu and Consum'r Price Indu ur toru.nslis (orrttuu bcurd On II .JKrvn rhis MOllrh orrhr DGnd mtmhrn.

u.s. Treasury

Yield Curve

Week .ndell OIc.mber 21,2001 .nd Veer Ago


10 2002 ~
20 2003 Consensus 1oree.lotll

.OO,:==:::::::5.75,
S.~O
5.25
.00
.75
'.60
. 25
'E
~

"'.00

--Yar

Ago

--:::::::"!
~-----""'.:::::::;~~::::::::jr
6.00
5.75
6 60
5.25
6.00
4.75
4.50
4.25
'.00
3.75
'.60
3.25
. 00
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
1.50

~-WMt:eno.a
!2I'2:1/01

3.75

'.00
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00

'::=:::=_-+ __ -<~__ I_--+_-_!


''''0
'"
"""

1.75 ...
~.
1.50

2y<

tOuell-"y

3G-V r T~ ..... ry
Bo"d y..td

3-Montn

T .....

ury

8IHY~d

'0

10"

10
19117

'0

"" ""

1Q
19915

10
1,",'

10
2000

10
2001

10
~

21, 2001

As 01 week ended

December

21, 2001

~~.,-------------------~~
300
275
260
225
200
175
150

10 YellrT-Bond
mfn1.6 3-Monlh

300
275
260
225
200
175
150

Yield
TBiII Vlek:l

12!o

125

1~

i~

SO
25

Nil CorpoRlte Bond Yield


lo-Year T -Bond Yield

-025
60
-7~
-TOO

1997

1998

1999

50
2~
0
25
-60
-75

mInus

1996

2000

10
2003

u.S. Treasury Yield Curve

Corporate Bond Spreads


ended Oecember

........r.ge)

HI.to,",

6.00
7.60
7.00
6.60
6.00
6.60
~ 5.00
~4.so
. 00
G. 3.50
3.00
2.60
2.00
1.60
'.00

"'eturili.s

A$ 01 _ek

u.s. 3-Mo. T-Bills & 3D-Yr.T-Bonds


YS.

~ ~:~g
i._-"'--~

3Q
2002
2.0
5.0
2.2
2,2
2.1
'2.2
.2.6

2001

1995

Hl96

1997

1998

...

-100

2000

2001

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-9
Page 3 of 3

BLUE CHIP FrNANClAL fORECASTS.

JANUARY

1,200

Consensus Forecasts Of U.S. Interest Rates And Key Assumptionsl


.---------------------------------History-------.---._.~vg. For Week Ending----Dec 22 !kill Dec 8 Dec 1
6.53
6.47
6.57
6.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50

Interest Rates
Federal Funds Rate
Prime Rate
LlBOR. 3-mo.
Cormnercial Paper, I-mo.
Treasury bill, 3mo.
Treasury bill, 6-mo.
Treasury bill. 1 yr.
Treasury note, 2 yr.
Treasury n(lte, 5 yr.
T feaswy note, 10 yr.
Treasury bond, 30 yr.
Corporate Aaa bond
Corporate Baa bond
State & Local bonds
Home mongage rate

6.49
6.54
5.67
5.77
5.44
5.23
5.02
5.10
5.43
7.16
7.96
5.16
7.17

Ilndividual

6.63
6.54
6.10
6.07
5.78
5.49
5.33
5.39
5.57
7.19
8.10
5.34
7.54

6.7)
6.49
6.26
6.25
6.00
5.71
5.52
5.56
5.66
7.37
8.19
5.46
7.65

6.75
6.49
6.36
6.34
6.09
5.88
5.70
5.72
5.78
7.45
8.28
5.54
7.75

6.78
6.48
6.29
6.32
6.01
5.91
5.78
5.74
5.80
7.55
8.34
5.59
7.80

Consensus Forecasts - QU8rterl)' A \'

Latest Q'
4Q 2000
6.51
9.50

6.68
6.48
6.18
6.25
6.13
6.08
5.93
5.80
5.83
7.61
8.35
5.56
7.91

IQ
2001
6.3
9.3

6.70
6.50
6.20
6.21
5.92
5.73
5.56
5.57
5.69
7.41
8.22
5.46
7.64

panel members" forecasts

are on pages 4 through

9. Historica'

2Q
2001
6.0
9.0

6.4
6.3
5.9
5.9
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.5'
7.1
7.9
5.3
7,4.?.3

3Q.
4Q
IQ
2Q
2001 "2001 2002 2002
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.8

6.2
6.1
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.5
7.1
7.9
5.2

6.1
5.9
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.5
7.1.
7.8'
5.2
7.3

6.1
5.9
5.5
5.5
5.5'
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.6
7.1
_7.8...
. 5.t ..
7.3'

6.1
5.9
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.6.'
7.1,::
i.8"
5.3.'
.7.4

6.1
5.9
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.7.
7.1
7.9
.5.3
.7.4

Consensus F oreoasts. ':'Quarterly Avi:.


" 2Q'c: 3Q, 4Q .. IQ.: 2Q
2001 ...2001. 200f..20iil''2D02
2002
t003 .. 99.3..
9?.7' :'97.li '97.6
2.3.
2.6 3.i
3.4
3.'5
2.3
2.12.0'
2,1"2.12.1
2.6
2.4
2.4:,
Z.S 2.5'
2.5

-------- --.-------- ----------------HislOry- ------------------------------IQ


2Q
3Q
4Q
IQ
2Q
3Q
4Q'.IQ
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
93.4
95.5
94.5
92.7
94.7
97.5
99.2
102.4
3.5
2.5
5.7
8.3
4.8
5.6
2.2
2.5
2.2
1,4
1.1
1.6
3.3
2.4
1.6
2.2
1.7
3.2
2.4
2.9
4.3
3.6
3.1
2.9

Key Assumptions
Major Currency Index
Real GDP
GDPPricelndex
Consumer Price Index

6.57
6.54
6.06
6.03
5.73
5.46
5.25
5.29
5.49
7.11
8.03
5.25
7.42

.... ---------_ ..--

-------Mnn.h---------
Nov
Oct
~
6.51
6.5\
6.52
9.50
9.50
9.50

'9sI~"

:3...:

data for interest rates except LJBJR IS from Fo::deral Reserve Release IFRSR) H.I S. L1BOR quoles i1vBl-

able from The Wo.lI Street Journal and Tderate. Definitions ttponed hue ~ same 15 lh05Cin FRSR H 15. All Trell5ury yields are reponed on II. ['(lnsan1 maturity NSI$. Hi5~riC.a.
data for the U.S Federal Re!>erve Board's Major Currency lndel: is from FRSR H.IO and G.5. Historical data for Real GDP and GDPChaine.d Price Inde), are:from tht BureZiuof
Economic Analysis (BEA). CODsumer Price Index lCPI) history is from the Depanment of Labor's Bll'e3U of Labor StatIstics (BL~. *lnreres' NIle dlllllfOl' Q4 2000 ~eIi on
lJisrDrfrm d/ltlldJrollgh th, wd ,,,ded De~,ItI~,22.Dszlll/or QI ]000 FRB's MlIjOl'CII"'''cy Indu IIlso is basu on tlQ/lIl1rrtN/lh ME"" ,nd,d [k,cntrbe,. ]1. FitllnS SJrllfWf
for Q4 1000 Relll GDP. GDP Pric, Indu Intd elmSk",,,. Pric, Inda. tlr, coru,nsus fo"t'Asts btls,d tin AS'u~
.his morrtll of our pa,,~ ",,,,,bt'rs.

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve


Week ended December

22, 2000 and Year Ago

1Q 2001 and 2Q 2002 Consen.u5

U.S. 3Mo. T-Bllls & 3D-Yr.T-Bonds


'IS.

lQuar1el'l)l
A~)
Hislery

forecasts

7.00,....-----------_--,.
--Year
Ago
6.75
........
Week ended 12J22fOO
-+-COIJUMU' 20 '002
. SO

7.DO
6.75
6.SO

-----+--Cof\&ensuI1Q 2,00~01~_-----1
6.25

625

. 00.j..._~>

5.75
S.SO

__

6.00

t:::::::::~~;:,.I_0=-......

>_-

--_+--_t .5.50
5.75

...

5.25

5.25

5.00

-l---+---+-_-+-...:::~=~~_.j.

.""

3""

1yr

2yr

5)'1"

500

~S.SO
~ 5.00
'.SO
'.DO
3.SO
3.DO
2.SO

'0

3""

10

... ,,,.

,a

'99' '99' '

MaturilJes

175
'SO

rt'

\J

1\1

\;w-"
\v,'v/~."",,,.rv
.

27S
250
22S
175

'50
125

10D

..

75

75
Aa.a -CorptJlOte Bond YfIllk:!
m;nJs 1Q.Ye8r T-Bond Yeld

SO

0
'994

3DO

200

12'
100

'0
2S

1995

'996

1997

1998

1999

'0
'M

'0

10

'99' '99'

la '0 '0 ,a
1m 2000 2001 ZOO,

~ ofweek ended December 22,2000

275

200

'0

. SO
. DO
7.SO
7.00
. SO
6.00
5.SO
5.DO
4.SO
4.00
3.SO
3.DO
2.SO

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

300
Baa Corporate Bond Vleld ~
minus 1(J..Year T-Bond Yield

1lli

""",,,,",

As 01W8ek endod December 22. 2000

225

FO"....

3-Monlh T IU$l.Iry
Bill Yield

Corporate Bond Spreads

2SO

BkIe Ctup

. SO
. DO
7.SO
7.DO
6.SO
_6.00

2000

3SO
325
300
275
2SO
225
200
175
'SO
,2S
'DO
15
SO
2S
0
2S

10 Year T-80nd Yield


minus J.Mon!/T T_8iH Yield

~\
\

~\,\I.f\
rJ~
~J\
iJvV
V,>;Jv
1\
1\

-SO
75

....

'09'

'996

'&97

'996

1999

20DD

350
32S
300
275
250
225
2D0
175
150
'2'
100
15
50
2S
0
25
-50
75

e:

~
Comparison 01Interest Rate Trends
{or the Twelve Months Ending June 2003

Corporate
Bonds
Aea Rated

Veel1l__

As. Reted

Public Utility Bonds


A Rated

Baa Rated

(1)

Spread - Corporate v. Public Utility Bonds


Bae (Pub.
Ae (PUb.
A (PUb. Uti!.)
over Aaa
UIiI.) over
Util.) over
Aaa (Corp.)
(Corp.)
Aaa (Corp.)

Spreed - Public Utility Bonds

A over Aa

Baa Over A

July-02
August-02
Sep!ember-02
Oetober-02
November-02
December-02
January-OJ
February-03
Merch-03
April-03
May-03
JuneOJ

6.53 %
6.37
6.15
6.33
6.31
6.21
6.17
5.95
5.89
5.74
5.22
4.97

7.22 %
7.10
6.98
7.07
7.03
6.94
6.87
6.66
6.56
6.47
6.12

7.31 %
7.17
7.08
7.23
7.14
7.07
7.07
6.9J
6.79
6.64
6.36
6.21

Average of Lest
3 Months

5.31 %

6.26 %

6.40 %

6.57 %

0.95 %

1.09 %

1.26 %

0.14 %

0.17 %

Averege of Last
6 Months

5.66 %

6.48 %

6.67 %

6.90 %

0.82 %

1.01 %

1.24 %

0.19 %

0.23 '10

Avarage of Last
12 Months

5.99 %

6.77 %

6.92 %

7.35 %

6.20

8.07 %
7.74
7.62
8.00
7.76
7.61
7.47
7.17

7.05
6.94
6.47

6.30

Average Spread (2)

Notas:

(I) All ytelds ere distributed ytelds.


(2) Equal weight has been given to thal2-month average, 6-month
Bverage, and 3-month average. This provides recognition of current
conditions, but does not piece undue emphasis (hareon.

Source of Informetion: Margenl Bond Record

~%

~ 0.85

--.1.1!L

~%
%

~ 1.01

'10

1.29 '10

..J1J.i..%
0.16 %

~%

~0.28

~
...

,..

'1:10
"0
'I:I
n

~,..

,,~!

.,NZ
~ ~O

co o

~"Tl1l

0"0
... ::J:w
wcDJ:..

Comparison of Interest Rate Trends


for the Twelve Months Ending pecember 2001 (1)

Spread

Years

1
January-Ol
2 February..Ql
March-Ql
3
4
April-Ol
May-Ol
5
6
June-Ol
7
July-01
8
August..ol
9 Septambar.Ql
10
OCtober-OI
11 NoYember-Ql
12 December.Ql

- Corporate

v. PUblic Utllltv Bonds

Spread - Public Utility Bonds

Aa (PUb.

A (Pub. UliI.)

Baa (Pub.

Util.) over
Aae (Corp,)

overAaa
(Corp.)

Utll.) over
AlIa (Corp.)

A over Aa

Baa over A

8.08 %

0.58 %

0.78 %

1.16 %

0.20 %

0.40 %

7.69 %

8.08 %

0.48 %

0.68 %

1.05 %

0.20 %

0.37 %

7.78 %

8.03 %

Corporate
Bonds
ABa Rated

Aa Rated

PUblic Utility Bonds


A Rated

Baa Rated

7.15 %
7.10
6.98
7.20
7.29
7.18
7.13
7.02
7.11
1.03
8.97
8.78

7.73 %
7.62
7.51
7.72
7.79
7.62
1.55
1.39
1.55
1.47
1.45
1.53

7.80 %
7.74
7.68
7.94
7.99
7.85
7.78
7.59
7.75
1.63
7.57
1.83

7.99 %
7.94
7.85
8.06
8.11
8.02
8.05
7.95
8.12
8.02
7.98
8.27

8.92 %

1.48 %

7.68 %

7.01 %

1.49 %

7.08 %

1.58 %

Average of Last
3 Months
Average of Last
8 Months
Average

of Last

12 Months

~%

~%

~%

....QE..%

~%

0.51 %

Average Spread (2)

Notes:

....MQ..%

0.71 %

1.05 %

0.19 %

(1) All yields are distributed yields.


(2) Equal weight has been given to the 12-month average, 6-month

average, and 3-month average. This provIdes recognition of current


conditions, but does not p18C8undue emphasis thereon.

~
;I-

"Co

Source of Information: Mergent Bond Record

~o
",n
...

'"

"tJ~!.
Ol"'Z
fQ

'" o
"'"T1"ll
0"'0
_::I: ...
CoicDJ:..

M2QllU

Comparison of Interest Rate Trends


for the Twdye Mgnths Ending December 2000 (1)

Spread - Corporate v, PUblic Utlllty Bonds


Corporate
Bonds

Public Utillty Bonds

As (Pub.

A (Pub. Util.)

Ba. (Pub.

Uti!.) over
Asa (Corp,)

overAaa
(Corp.>

Utll.) over
ABa (Corp.)

Asa Ratad

As Rated

A Rated

8a8 Rated

1
Jenuary-oO
2
February-QO
March-DO
3
4
April-oO
May-DO
5
8
Jun&-OO
7
July-DO
August-DO
8
9 Seplember-DO
10
Oclober-DO
11 November-DO
12 Oecember-oO

7.78 %
7.88
7.68
7.84
7.99
7.67
7.55
7.55
7.62
7.55
7.45
7.21

8.17 %
7.99
7.99
8.00
8.44
8.10
8.10
7.95
8.11
8.08
8.03
7.79

8.35 %
8.25
8.28
8.29
9.70
8.36
9.25
8.13
8.23
8.14
8.11
7.84

8.40 %
8.33
8.40
8.40
8.65
8.47
8.33
8.25
8.32
8.29
8.25
8.01

Average of Last
3 Months

7.40 %

7.97 %

8.03 %

8.18 %

0.57 %

0.63

'"b

0.78

Average of Leat
6 Months

7.51 %

8.01 %

8.12 %

6.24 %

0.50 %

0.61

0.73 %

Average 01 Last
12 Months

7.52 %

8.06 %

8.24 %

8.36 %

Years

~%

0.50 %

AverRge Spread (2)

Not .. :

~%

0.62

GAl

Spread

PUblic Utility Bonds

A over Aa

Baa over A

0.06 %

0.15 %

0.11 %

0.12 %

~%

~%

--llL %

-2.E. %

~%

0.75 %

(1) All yield. ore distributed yields.


(2) Equal weight hIS been gIven tathe 12-month average. 6-month
averege, end 3-month everage. This provides recognition of current
conditions,

Source Df Infonnatlon:

but d085 not pJace undue emphasis

thereon.

;.

-gO

Mergent Bond Record

'CO
CDn

'"
"'O~a
.,NZ
....

lQ

CD

... .,,'tl

0"'0
... ::1: ...

WrDJa.

Docket No. P~3-4


Work paper # 3 to FJH-9
Page 1 of 4

ComparisM
of Bond Ratings and Busness Profile for
the Proxy Group of Five Oil Pipeline Companies and the
ProXY Group of Three Gas Pipeline Companies

July 2003

July 2003
Moody's

standard & Poor's


Bond Rating

Bond Rating
Bond

Rating

Numerical
Weighting

Bond

Rating

(1)

Standard & Poor's


Business Profile (2)

Numerical
Weighting

(1)

Proxy Group of FIVe


on Pipeline Companies
Buckeye Partners, LP.
Enbridge

Energy Parb1ers, LP. (3)

Kaneb Pipe Une Partneno, L.P. (4)


Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.
TEPPCO Pm1nen;, LP. (5)
Avel1lge

Proxy Group of Three


GaB Pipeline Companies
Enterprise

Products

PO.
A3

Ba'
Baal
Baa3
8S81

8.0
9.0
13.0
10.0

AA
BBB+
BBB+

9.0
8.0
10.0
10.0

--RQ.

BBB

----ill.

....1ii

BBB+

.....!!.

L.P.

Kinder Morgan Inc.

Average

NR
Ba2
Baa2
Baa31 Ba1

14.0

--'.L!!.

..!ll

BBB
BBBBB
BBB-

11.0
13.0

--'.L!!.

.Jll.

NR ::::Net Rated

(1)

From page 4 of this Workpaper.

(2)

From Standard & POOl's Utlities Perspectives,


Gobal Utilities Ratings Service, Vol. 12. No. 31, August 4,2003.
Moody's bond ratings are a composite of those of Enbridge Inc. and Enbridge Energy Umited Partnership.
Standard & POOr'1i rating6 and business position are those of Enbridge Gas Distribution.
Ratings and business position are those of Kaneb Pipe Line Operating Partnership, L.P.
RBtings end business position ere 8 composite of those of TEPPCO Partners, L.P. end TE Products Pipeline
Company.
The proxy group of ttvee gas pipeline companies was comprised of four gas pipetine companies in the ana1y&is
applicable to 2003,2002 and 2001 8$ upJained in Mr. Harey'& direct testimony.
Formerly EJ Paso Energy Partners, L.P.

(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)

(7)

Source of Information:

Moody's Investc~ Service


Standard & Poor's GJoblll Utility Rating Service

Standard & Poor's Bond Guide

5.0
4.0
4.0
4.3

(6)

Partners,

GulfTerra Energy Partnel'$, LP. (7)

Notes:

4.0

5.0
6.0
5.0
5.3

Docket No. P~3-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-9
Page 2 of 4

Comparison of Bond RIItings and Busil'le6S Profile fur


the Proxy Group of Frve Oil PipeRne Companies and the
Proxy Group of Four Gas Pipeline Companies
December 2001
Moody'.
Bond Rating
Bond
Rating

December 2001
Standard & Poor'.

Standard & Para


Business Profile (2)

BoodRating

N~
Weighting

Bond
Rating

(1)

NurTllri::8J
Weighting

(1)

Proxy Group of FIYe


au Pipeline CorTlD!rri!s
BUCkeye PaI'1neI'5, L.P.

NR

Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (3)

1>3

Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P. (4)


Kinder Morgan Energy Partners. LP.
TEPPCO P.rtnoru. LP. (5)

NR

Aw_

Baa'

NR
9.0

11.0

A-

NR

NR
B.. 1

4.0
B.O

9.0

4.0
4.0

......ll

4.0

10.0

4.0
6.0
5.0
3.0

NR
..l2;2.

AlA

Proxy GI'tlUp of Four


Gas Pipeline Companies
EI p... E........y Corp. (6)
EI PIISO Energy Partners, LP.

__

'nc.

Baa1
B.2

Baa1

The Williams Companies, inc. (7)

Baa'

A_

eaa2

10.0
1~.O
10.0

BBB~
NR
BBB

11.0

--!Q&

BBB'"

....!M.

11.0

888+

....l2l

NR = NotRated

Nates:

(1)
(2)
(3)

(4)
(5)
(4)

(5)

From page 4 of this Workpaper.


From Standard & Poor'& Utilities Perspectives, Global Utilities Rlitings Service. Vol. 10, No. 51, December 24, 2001
Formerly Lakeheed Pipe LiIW Partners, loP. Moody'S ratings are a composite of those of Enbridge Inc. and
Enbridgilo Enwgy LimDd P.a~hip.
Standard &. Paor'c ratings and bucinlIIcs position are thoss at E:nbridge

Ga$ Distribution.
Ratings and business position are those of Kaneb Pipeine Operating Partner.ihip.
L.P.
RIItings and buaines& position ar'8. oompo&ite of tho6e of TEPPCO ParbWs. LP. and TE ProdlJc:ts PIp8Iine
Company.
Ratings encll::w..JsiMss pcl5ition are a oompos.ita of those of ANR Pipeline Cor'npM'Iy, Coastal N.wraI Gas,
~
,__
Goo ~y.
E. Paso N_
Gall Company. Florida Goo TranamiasKln (50'11.
-..
Nat1JnII Gas Corr,JOI1y ard Ton.Gas Pipeline Ccmpony.
Ratings and buainess
allhoso at Kom Rivaf T_.
_
Pipaljne
C"'JlO"Ilion. T.... Goo Transmission. TranoccntinonIaI Ga_ Pipalroo. and Wlilams Gas PipoIinos Central.

poaition_. ~

SOl6C8 of llira"wtiou:

Moody'a Ir'I"e'8StIn SerW::e


_rd
& P..... Global Utiity Ra1irq_
Standard & Poor'. Bond GUds

4.5

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH9
Page 3 Of 4

Comparison of Bond Ratings and Bl.JSUle&;6Profile for


the Proxy Group of Five Oi pipctline Companies and the
Proxy Group of Four Gas Pipeline Cc:JlT!Il!a!liBs

December 2COO
Standard & Poor's

Decombo<2000
Moody'.
Bond Rating

St:andard & Poor's


Business

80ndRating

Numerical

NlI'l'ltW'iaIt
Weighting

Profile (2)

Weighting

(1)

(1)

Proxy Group d Frve


Oil Pipeline CcmJ)!nies
Buckeye Par1:rwrs, L.P.
Kaneb Pipe Line Partners, L.P, (3)
Kinder Morgan Energy PlIT"tnerS,L.P.
Lakehead Pipe Line Plrtners, LP.
TEPPCO

Pm1norS,

LP. (4)

Average

NR
NR

NR
NR
10.0
9.0

Baal

A3

NR
ft.3/ Baa,

--2

A-

NR
NR

,.,.

4.0
9.0

4.0
50

9.0

4.3

4.0
4.0
5.0
4.0

Proxy Group of Four


Gas Pipe!in! Companies
EI Paso Energy Corp. (5)
En"'" <:crpomon (6)
Kinder Morgan Inc.
The Williams CCrTlpanies, Inc. (7)
Average

Baa1
Ba.1
Ilu2

10.0
10.0
11.0

eeB-

10.0
9.0
12.0

e.. '

--!Q:2.

BBB+

......1Q&

10.3

BBB+

....l2i!

Baal

868+

,.,.

NR =NotR_

Notes:

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

(5)
(6)

(TJ

From page 4 of this Workpaper.


From Standard & Poor's Utilities Perspectives, Global Utilities Ratings Service. Vol. 10, No.1, January 1. 2001.
RatiIllS end bUlli.position "'" __
of ""_
PipeOno Clpo<8tirQ P..-v>ip,
L.P.
Bl.lSIf1II'S&
position is that of TEPPCO p~.
LP.
R8tings and business position .... 8 composita of those of EI Paso NIItJJrWGas Company. Florida Gas
Transmission (SO'lI), Southem NlItunII Gas C~y
and T..........
Gas P;paI;ne Company.
RlItinga are a comp05it8 of those of Houston Pipeline Company, Northern N:ItinI Ga, Portland General

Electric C0mp8ny and Tl'1lnawestem Pipeline eornp.ny. Busr-s


P'*itiOO is II COIT........te of those of
Northem Border Pipeline. Norttlam NII1:IJTW
Gas, Portiand GenerRI Electric Company and Transwesmm
Wi ..........
ta at thc:Ielr at Kern RiYer T'allSl'I .
i, ~
Pipeiim CQ-pntion, Tmas Gal
TllInsrTllssion, T~I
G8S Pipelil'lll, Williams NIdLnI Gas COmpilinY. BU&i1e6& position is a
composite afthose of Kern River Transmi&sion, T.xas Gas Tranamission, and TrmlaCOrtilleiLtal Ges Pipetlina.

Ratings.,...

Source crIll1fUl iIlaticAl:

MoodY.I".......

Standard & Poor'. GioIloI Utility Rilling Service


S't8r1dard & Poor'e Bond Guide

4.3

Docket No. P-03-4


Wor1<paper # 3 to FJH-9
Page 4 of 4

Numerical Assignment for


Moody's and Standard & Poor's Bond Ratings

Moody's
Bond Rating
Unassigned
Aaa
Unassigned

Numerical
Bond Weighting
1
2
3

Standard & Poor's


Bond Rating
Unassigned

AAA
Unassigned

Aa1
Aa2
Aa3

4
5
6

AA+
AA
AA-

A1
A2
A3

7
8
9

A+
A
A-

Baa1
Baa2
Baa3

10
11
12

BBB+
BBB
BBB-

Ba1
Ba2
Ba3

13
14
15

BB+
BB
BB-

B1
B2
B3

16
17
18

B+
B
B-

Docket No. P-'l3-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-9
Pa e 1 of 6

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-9
Page 2 of6

Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Infiation" Valuation Edition 2003 Yearbook.


Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflatien"

and SBBI" are registered trademarks

of Ihbotson

Associates.

The information presented in this publication has been obtained with the greatest of care from
sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. Ibbotson Associates expressly disclaims any
liability, including incidental or consequential damages, arising from errors or omissions in
this publication.
Copyright

2003

Ibbotson

Associates,

Inc. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication

may

be reproduced or used in any form or by any means-graphic,


electronic, Or mechanical, including
photocopying, recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems-without
written
permission from the pubJisher. To obtain permission] please write to the address below. Specify the
data or other information you wish to use and the manner in which it will be used, and attach a copy
of any charts, tables, or figures derived from the information. There is a $150 processing fee per
request. Tbere may be additional fees depending on usage.

Published by:
Ibbotson Associates
225 North Michigan Avenue, Suite 700
Chicago, Illinois 60601-7676
Telephone (312) 616-16~0
Fax (312) 616-0404
www.lbbotson.com

ISBN 1-882864-17-4
ISSN 1523-343X

Additional

copies of this Yearbook

may be obtained

for SIlO,

plus shipping and handling,

by call-

ing or writing to the address above. Addirionaj product information can be found at the end of this
publication or at our Cost of Capital Center, http://valuation.ibbotson.com.
Order forms are
provided inside the back cover. Information about volume discounts, companion publication and
consulting services may also be obtained .

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-9
Page 3 of 6

T
Chapter 2

I,

Table 2-1
Total Returns, Income Returns, and Capital Appreciation of the Basic Asset Classes
Summary Statistics

of Annual Returns

from 1926 10 2002


Geometric
Mean

Series
Large Company

Arithmetic
Mean

Serial

Standard

Deviation

COfTelation

Stocks
10.2%

12.2%

20.5%

0.05

Income

4.3

4.3

1.5

0.88

Capt/al Appreciation

5.1

7.6

19.8

0.05

12.1

16.9

33.2

0.07

-0.01

Total Ratllrn::.

Ibbotson

Small Company Stocks

Total Returns

Mid~C8P
Stoeb'
11.0

13.8

<5.1

Income

4.2

4.2

1.6

0.87

Capital AppreciatIon

6.6

9.4

24.3

-0.01

Total Returns

Low-Cap Stocka'

11.2

15.2

Income

3.8

3.8

1.

0.88

Capila:l Appre~ia1ion

7.3

11.2

29.1

0.04

12.1

Tolal Returnfl

0.05

Micro-Cap Stocks~

0.10

2.7

18.2
2.7

3Q.3

Income

1.6

Ca~ita' Appreciation

9.4

15.4

38.7

0.90
0.10

5 .

6.2

8.7

0.08

5.5
5.2

5.6
5.2

9.'
2.6

-0.07

0.1

0.4

8.2

-0.22

Total Re:(urns

&.4

5.6

58

0.15

Income

'.8

4.8

3.0

0.98

0.5

0.6

4.5

-0.20

Total Retums

3.8

3.8

3.2

0.91

Inflation

3.0

3.1

4.'

0.65

Total Relurns

Long-Tenn C~rpora!e BDn~s


Total RQturns
Long-Term

Governmt:nt

Bonds

Tolal Returns
Income
Capitel

Appreciation

Intermediate

Capital

Term Government

0.96

Bonds

Appreciation

Tra~ury Bills

Total return is equal to the sum 01 lhree componen1


and reinvestment mturn.
Source:

returns; income return. capital

Center for Research in Security Pnces, University 01 Chicago.

See Chapter

applec1alion

relurn,

7 tor details on decOe construction.

.,.,
28

SBBI Vafualion Edition 2003 Yearbook

Docket No. P-oJ-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-9
Page 4 of6

The EQUIty Risk Premium

For example, if bond yields rise unexpectedly, investors can receive a higher coupon payment (rom a
newly issued bond than from rhe purchase of an outstanding bond wirh the former lower-coupon
payment. The outstanding lower~coupon bond will thus fai.l to attract buyers, and its price will
decrease, causing its yield to increase correspondingly, as its coupo~ payment remains the same. The
newly priced outstanding bond will subsequently attract purchasers who will benefir from the shift in
price and yield; however, those investors who already held the bond will suffer a capital loss due to
the fall in price.
Anricipated changes in yields are assessed by the market and figured into the price of a bond.
Future changes in yields that are not amicipared will cause the price of the bond to adjust accord-

ingJy. Price changes in bonds due to unanticipated changes in yields introduce price risk into the total
return. Therefore, the total return on the bond series does not represent the riskless rate of return.
There is no evidence that investors expect the historical trend of bond capital losses to be repeated in
the future (otherwise, bond prices would be adjusted accordingly). Therefore, historical total returns
are biased downward as indicators of future expectations. The income return better represents the
unbiased estimate of the purely riskless rate of return, since an investor Can hold a bond to maturiry
and be entitled to the income return with no capital loss .
Arithmetic versus Geometric Means
The equity risk premium data presented in this book are arithmetic average risk premia as oPPo5cd
to geomeuic average risk premia. The arithmetic average equity risk premium can be demonstrated
to be most appropriate when discounting future cash flows. For use as the expected equity risk
premium in either the CAPM or. the building block approach, the arithmetic mean or the simple
difference of the arithmetic means of stock market returns and riskless rates is the relevant number.
This is because both the CAPM and rhe building block approach are additive models, in which the
cost of capital is the sum of its parts. The geometric average is more appropriate for reporting past
performance, since it represents the compound average return.
The argumtnt for using the arithmetic averagt is
cash flows, the equity risk premium that should be
expected to actually be ineurred over the future time
risk premium for each year based on the returns of the

quite straightforward.
In looking at projected
employed is the equity risk premium that is
periods. Graph 5-3 shows the realized equity
S&P 500 and the income <tturn on long-term

government bonds. (The actual, observed difference between the return on the stock market and the
risk less rate is known as the realized equity risk premium.) There is considerable volatility in the
year-by-year statistics. At times the realized equity risk premium is even negative .

IbbotsonAssociates

71

Docket No. P~3-4


Workpaper # 4 to FJH-9
Page 50f6
Chapter 5

Graph 5-3

I=lealized Equity Risk Premium Per Year

1926-2002
60
50
40

'E
a>

3D

0-

20

<'
m

c
~
E
~
E
~

'"ti

10
0
-10

Z. -20

"5
0-

w -30
-40
-50
1925

1935

1945

1955

1965

1975

1965

1995

2002

Year-end

To illustrate how the arithmetic mean is more appropriate than the geometric mean in discounting
cash flows, suppose the expected return on a stock is 10 percent per year with a standard deviation
of 20 percent. Also assume that only two outcomes are possible each year- +30 percent and -10
percent (i.e., the mean plus or minus one standard deviation), The probability of occurrence for

each outcome is equal. The growth of wealth ovet a two-year period is illustrated in Graph 5-4 .

72

SBBIValuationEdition2003 Yearbook

Docket No. P-03-4


Work paper # 4 to FJH-9
Page 6 of 6

The Equity Risk Premium

Graph 5-4
Growth at WeaUh Example

$1.69

$1.70

$1.00

$0.70

Years

The most common outcome of S1.17 is given by the geometric mean of 8.2 percent. Compounding
the: possible outcomes as foHows derives the geometric mean:

[(1+ 0.30)x (1- 0.10nY,: - 1 = 0.062


However, the expected value is predicted by compounding the arirhmetic, not the geometric, mean.
To illustrate thls, we need to look at the probability-weighted

(0.25 X $1.69)

(0.50
+ (0.25

X
X

average of all possible outcomes:

$0.4225

$1.17) = $0.5850
$0.81) = $0.2025

Total

$1.2100

Therefore, $1.21 is the prohability-weighted expected value. The rate that must be compounded to
achieve the terminal value of $1.21 after 2 years is 10 percent, the arithmetic mean:

$lx(1+0.10f

~$1.21

The geometric mean, when compounded,

$lx(1+0.0B2f

results in the median of the distribution:

~$1.17

The arithmetic mean equates the expected future ,,"alue wjrh the present value; it is therefore rhe
appropriate discount rate.

IbbotsonAssociates

73

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 5 to FJH-9
Page 1 of 3

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 5 to FJH-9
Page 2 of 3

Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Valuation Edition 2001 Yearbook.


Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflati~n and SBBle are registered trademarks
The information

presented

Sources believed

to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

liability,

including

in this publication

incidental

has been obtained

or consequential

Ibbotson

damages,

of Ibbotson

with

the greatest

Associates

arising

from

Associates.

expressly
errors

of cart from
disclaims any

or omissions

in

thi~ publication.
Coprrighr

2001

Ibbotson

Associates,

be reproduced or used in any form or


photocopying.

recording,

tc1ping,

Or

Inc. AlJ rights reserved.

by

any means-graphic.

information

scorage

pc:rmission from the publisher. To obtain permission,


data or other lnformation

No part of this publication


electronic,

may

or mechanical,

including

and retr;e"'al s)"stems-withour

written

please write to the address below. Specify the

you wish co use: and the manner in which it will be use:d, and attach a copy

of any charts, tables, or figures derived


request. There may be additlonal

{rom the information.

fees depending

There is a $150 processing

fee per

on usage .

Published by:
Ibbotson Associates
225 North Michigan Avenue, Suite 700
Chicago, Illinois 60601-7676
Telephone (312) 6161620
Fax (312) 616-0404
www.ibbotson.com

ISBN 1-882864-13-1
ISSN 1523-343X

Additional

copies of this Yearbook may be obtained for $110, plus shipping and bandling, by call-

ing or writing
publication
provided
consulting

[0

the address aboY!::. Additional

or at our COSt of Capital

inside: the back cover. Information


services may also be obtained.

product

Center,

information

can be found at the end of this

http://yaluation.ibbotson.com.

about volume

discounts.

companion

Order forms are


publication

and

Docket No. P-03-4

Workpaper # 5 to FJH-9
Page 3 of 3

Chapter

Table 1-1
Total Returns, Income Returns, and Capital Appreciation of the Basic Asset Classes
Summary Statistics of Annual Returns

from 1926 \0 2000


Series

Geometric

Arithmetic

Mean

Mean

Standard
DlI!viation

Serial

COlTelalion

Large Company Stocks


Total Returns

Inco"",

4.4

13.0%
4.4

Caprtal Appreciation

6.'

Ibbotson

20.2%
1.4

0.00
0.86

B.3

'9.5

0.01

12.4

17.3

33.4

0.08

-0.03

11.0%

Small Company

StQck~

TOlall=1etutns

Mid-Cap Stocks
11.6

14.5

25.0

Income

4.3

4.3

1.6

0.66

Cap'11al Appreciation

7.1

9.9

24.3

-0.02
0.04

Total Returns

~owCap Stocks
11.7

15.7

30.0

Income

3.9

3.9

1.9

0.87

~a'pital Appr~iation

7.B

11.6

29.3

0.04

12.2

lSA
2.7

39.6
1.B

0.11
0.90

15.6

39.1

0.11

Total Returns

Micro-Cap S.tC!c:ks
10\a\ Returns
Income

2.7
9.4

CepHal Appreciation

~~n:nCorpo~te

lang.~

Bo.n~~
5.7

6.0

B.7

0.07

Total Returns

5.3

5.7

5.2

S.2

9.'
2.B

-0.06

looome

-<>.1

0.3

B.2

-0.22

Total Returns

5.3

0.14

4.6

5.5
4.6

5.B

Income

3.0

0.96

Capftal Appraciafion

0.3

0.4

4.5

-0.23

To1al Returns

36

3.9

3.2

092

Infla1ion

3.1

3.2

'.4

0.65

Total Returns
Long-~e~

Govllll~ment

Bon~s

Capital Appreciation
Intermediate-Term

Tre~.~ry

Government

Bonds

Bn ..

Tolal retum is equal fo the sum 01 fhF'e component


and reinvestment return.
'Source:

returns; income

return, capItal apP'sciatlDn

relurn.

Cenler for Res.sarch in Security Prices, UniverSIty of Chicago . See ChaPler 6 for details an decile construction.

14

0.96

SSBI ValuationEditIOn2001 Yeart>ook

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 6 to FJH-9
Page 1 of 3

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 6 to FJH-9
Page 2 of 3

Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation 2000 Yearbook.


Slacks, Bonds, Bills. and lnflationiV

and SBBIIXoar~ registered ludem.arks ofIbbotson

Associates.

The: information
p[~sc:nled in this publiotion
has been obtained with the grC::UC5[ of care: from sources be1ievc:d to be reliable:.
but is nO[ guaranteed. Ibbotson Associatc::s expressly disclaims any liability. including incidental or consequential damages.
arising from errors or omissions in this publication.
Copyright 19832000 Ibbotson A,!,sociatl:s, loe. AJI rights reserved. No pan of this publication may be reproducc::d or used
in any form or by any m<:ans-graphic.
dectroni.c, or medrmical, \nduding photocopying.
recording. taping. or information
siorage and retrieval system5-without
written permission from the publisher. To obrain permission, please write (0 the
addreu bdow. Specify the data or other information you wish (0 use and the m:mner in which it will be used, and Cl.nach a
copy of any charts, tables, or figures derived. from the information. There is a $150 processing fee per tequesl. There may be
additional fees depending on usage.
.

Published by:

Ibbotson Assodotes
225 North Michigon Avenue, Suite 700
Chicogo, Illinois 60601-7676
Telephone (312)616-1620
Fox (312) 616-0404
www.ibbotson.com
ISBN 1-882864-10-7
ISSN 1047-2436

Additional
address

copies of this Yearbook

above.

publications

Order

and consulting

sofrware, a Microsoft
be obtained
write

(0

forms

annually.

may be: obtained

arc provided

inside

for SliD,

services may also be obtained.

Windows

application.

semjannually,

the address list-ed above.

plus shipping

the back cover.

and handling,

Information

abour

by calling or writing to the

volume

discounts,

Statistics and graphs can be quickly accessed over any subperiod.

Cluarterly or monthly.

companion

The data in this Y~Qrboolt are also available with our Analyst
For more information

Updates can

about An3lysr. call (BOO) 7583557

or

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 6 to FJH-9
Page 3 of 3

Chaptrr6

Table 67

Total Returns,
Income Returns, and
Capital Appreciation 01
the Ba,ic Asset Clei.. es

Summary Statistic,
af Annual Returns

From 1926 ta 1999


Geometric

Series
lO'1!e Company Stacks
Totol Return,

Mean

Arithmetic
Mean

Standard
De";ation

11.3%
4.5
6.6

13.3%
4.5
B.5

20.1%
1.4
19.5

0.01
0.85
0.02

12.6

17.6

33.6

0.08

5.6

5.9

87

0.09

5.1
5.2
-0.3

5.5
5.2
0.1

9.3
2.B
8.1

-0.03
0.97
-0.18

5.4

Capital Appreciation

5.2
4.8
0.3

4.8
0.4

5.8
3.0
4.4

0.17
0.96
-0.21

Trea.ury Bills
Tolol Return.

3.8

3.8

3.2

0.92

InRotion

3.1

3.2

45

0.65

Income

Copi1al Appreciation

Smo" Company Stacks


Total Returns

lon9-Term Corporate Bond.


Tata Returns

Lon~aTerm Government Bonds


Tata Returns
Income

Copilo' Appreciotion
Intermediate- Term Government Bonds

Seriol
CORelation

Total Returns
Income

Tow return is equal CO the sutn of three component fcrumSj


income rerurn, c.apita.l.appreci;nion return,
reinvestment return. Annual rClnYestment returns for select asset classes art: provided in Table: 2-6.

124

SBBf 2000 Y..arbook

oliIhd

Docket No. P~3-4


Work paper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 1 of.15

AN!l

LONG-TERM

SiP PUBLIC untllY


INOEI.
COAPORAIi
acwps YYI-8Y-yaA

JIIT1..J!!NS

LONGT'ERM
S&fI' PUBUC UTILMY
COMMON lSTOCKS

!WI

'92'
",.

0."02
-02196
-0.3590

"'"

.o.-

'032
'933

-0.2187

-0.2041
0.7663

193<1

,."
'936

"''''
""
,..,
,..,
'04'
,
1942

......
"..
'945

1950

''SSO,O,
1953
""
'955
'956
'957

...
,..,
,..,
,...
,,...
,,..
......,
,"'58

'060
11i1Bl

0.0172
004104

0.0331
0.0212
-ll.0269
00352
0.03041
0.0539
0.0046
-0.0681
00871
-0.0222
.{J.OOP7

0.0907

0""

0.0795
0.0219
O.004n

.o0046
0.0020

-ll0053
0.1032
-Q 1542

-O.04QS

0.0257
-ll.0809

...

"

1971
'972
'973

0.024'
00815
-01807

t9704

-0.21$5

1975
l1i176

0......9
0.3181
0._
-00371
0.1358
0.15013

1978
'979

,"'B'
,-

01837

01101
0.0726
0.01104
.o.0306
0.10480II
01855
0.0171
-0.0007
-0.0418
-O.~2

0,..,
""'''
""'"
"..,

.o.0096

0."704

'98'
1982

0..:379
0.0470
0.1839
0.3ll9lI

0.3305

'966

......
",n
"""
,,..,
,,...
......
'99'
,,...
...
,9B6
1987

,,

.oam

1000

.o0,..."
"""

MEAN

0040B

.o.0234

.o.044ll

,on

AAITHMETlC

0.0273
o 025ll
00233
00473

0.1236
O.'~l
0.01.67

1970

"'"
''''''
"""

0.033ll

.lJQ:!64

1li165

0.0961
0057.
0.0275
0.0613
0.03li17

-o.J704
0.224:5
01126
-0.1715
-03157
0.1539
0..."
0.1803
0.5333
0.0126
-0.1316
0.0401
0.3139
0.0325
0.1863
0.1925
00785
0.2472
O.1'2f1
0.0505
0.0635
04070
007~
0."'"
0.2933

1938

lilONDS

0.13&4

0._

19>'
,.,.

COOPORATE
00284
0.0321
00798
-00185
0.10B.2
0.1038

0.5741

1930

019155

-ll.1llI21
0.1070
0.1523

"'"
0<0780

0.0678
019811
D.093O
0.131(1

DOS"
0.1439
-0.07'904
0.4215

.<I.OS7'
0.2720
0.01040
0.1295
0.1076
-0.0745
0.1287
O.1~
01633

00314

0.2469
0.1482
.o.Oll85
Q.sg70

-0.3041

-O.m2
REl1...RN

SIP Pl.JBLJC UT1LlTY 1t:lEX

TOTAl.

1m.l!!I!l!

10.~

lONG-TERM CORPORA.lE BON:lS.


SOLOMON BROS. HIGH-GRADE 1f)EX

6.~

SPREAD

04.36'Mo

SOURCE OF INFORUATION:
sroacs.
9ONJS. 9I.LS AKJ II#l.ATION, vALUATlONEDtTION
2003 YEAR9XlK, IBBOTSON ASSCClATES, 2003
STANDARD

& POOR'S STA.T\ST1CAL SERVICE:

SECURITY ~ICE

INDEX RECORD, CURRENT STAi1S1lCS


STNDARO

RESEARCH

& POOR"S roMPUSTAT


INSIGHT OATA. BASE

SERVICES

INC., PC PLUS

Docket No. P-03-4


Work paper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 2 of 15

_- -- --_ -- --_ --_ --_ ..--- A._- --.


- ..
....

....

YWa,.",..

-,.-'.-,.,

'.49
7.10

,."
,
'"
".
,""...

""
"".n

--,.
,.
-- ".'"..
--- ."...",
- ...
-,. .....,.

,m

'.n

."
,. '-"
,m

'.71
U,

..

...~
,
....
,."

,'"...

on

""
"."

'm

TO'

-,.,. ............."
-,.,. ....."
5.13

'm

'"
,,......
'"
,

......
,
'"..
,..
'"
,.,

----- ........
---.. ...........'"
-- ....
., '"
",

'"
'"
., '"
Tn

UT

'-"

...

..".,..

,...
,."
.-"
""

......
...'"...
.........."
,."
...

,-"
U7

".
,."
,,,,...
'-"
,.

...'"

'"
,n
'"
,oo
,.
'"
....

,,-"
141D

..
.....'"

",=
.TO
."
'.13

,,,,...
,...
".
".

8.71

...
1.12

....'".

...."
.,.,."..
4.42

UI

....
..

,'"
'"
,
''''

'"
",
'"
'"
""
'-"

...,.,,.
Tn

..

'"
,'"
.......

........

'"
.-"

'-'"
'-"

,..

".
,,.

HI)

100

'-"

-......

.m

3.1'

lf28.2lJIl2

...,,,......
,,...

,,.,,
""

1242

..."

on

m
'.M

..

...,
""
,,,

13.01

m,

".
....,
."
ut

",
....",

1441

,m

...."

."
,."

7.1'

7.18

1331

,,,
,."

---.

7.47

'"

13.71
1U7

."
,.~

M'

..

'I'lIldl."""PItIIc

""

.m

,m
,m

,...
,."
,,,,
,,,
,-"

.....

"/4a" CCIrplr-.

n."

",.

,m

.m

....

'I'IoIdll,"'-"_

lU2

1271

'm

eo-. ....

UT

......,

.....,
...

,
'.n
""

...........

,.~
'"

.....",
.n

,...
""
".

""
""
""
,."
"'",

.....

.....

.m

,."
,..,

....
...
........

.'"
,....
'"
,,...
-"

-"

....

~APIdI:

'",-"~

..
,,,
,.....
....
,."

,""
,-"
,.

..........
""
on

1D.1D

""
".

".

...."",,..."
...........
".
,."
."
...,..
'"
'"
.........
'"
...
U,

.....

."

....."

..

,,...
'"

'.16

........

u,

,.,

'm

,."
"'"
,.'"
""
""
'"''
'UO

....
....
....""...
........'"......,"
B.11

'"
,."
iI.1'

..'"

U7

."
,
'"
."
ur
OJT

.........

. ....
...

".7~

'"
,.,
'"
'-"
""
,,,
'"

3.1'
U

"
or.

."
'TO
.TO

..,

'"

,~

'"
''''
'-"

".

......

,n

'"
'"
'-'"
'"

...,,,...
....
""
......'"",

U.

...

-.t5!!.. ""

----L1L~

~~

---1Jl..~

----l!!!l. ...

----1lL~

--la.~

---J.i!..~

,,,

...,..
'"
",
...""

".
,n
'"
'"
'"
".
'"
'",

......
......
.........
.....,
'"
....
""

.'"....

,
'"
'"
....

'"
,,,

''''

....
...

.......,."

.n
'"

.....
...'"'"

,
""
,...

U
UO

,-"

~. ~.

"Do<

--UL~

...

'l'\tIIs.."...~

-..2.a.~

~~

-----2.!Z." ----l!t ""

-~---

---

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 3 of 15

LONG-TERM

SIP PUIUC UTUIY IN:IEJ. AND


CCf!;PORATE BONQS VEAA-8Y-YEAIIt TOTAL
50.

LOf<G

PUBLIC UTIUTY

COMMON m?C1CS

:l!iM

"'"
'93'
"'"
",.
",.
'932

""
",.

-03704
0.2245
0.1126
-01715
-0.3157

""
'944
,""
,

0.1539
0<60'
0.1803
0.<>333
0.0126
-0.13115

'9<0
1941
'942

......

134'

0.13&11

009'"
0.067-4

0.0275
00613
O.03liI7

003,.
0.0273

0.0260
0.0283
0.0473
0......
0.0172
-0.0234
O.0041ol11

00331
0.0212
-0.0269
0.0352
0.0341
0.0539
0 ....

0.0325
0'863
0.1925
00785

"50

1951
'052
1953

.....

"
'955

0.2.(72
O.112e

-0.0681

0.""'"
0.0l5315
0.4070
00149
020,.

1957

'956
105'

'960

,,.,
'963
,

0.0871
-0.=
-0.0097
0.0907

025133
-0.0244

'05'

...
'96'
,...

00<9'
00795
0.0219
00<77
-0 ....
0.0020
-00<9,
0025'

0'238
0.1591

'965

0.0467

1968

-ll .....
-0.0063
0.1032

1_

-0.15012
01656
0.0:241
0.0815

1970
1971

'972
1973
1974
1975
1976

-Q.OB09

0.1837
0.1101

0.1508

0.0726
0.0114
-0.0306
0.1464
0.1985
0.0171
-0.0007
-0.0418
-0.0262

011741

-o~....

0.2652

0.4379
0.0470
0.1839
O."""
0'986

-0.1807
.(1.2155

0_
0.3181

"n
1978

-0.0311

1979

o '35ll

0.....

,'98'

......
.........

'98'
'983

,
,
,,"."
,

0.2001

0.2604
D._
0.2853

'986

-o~OO27

-0
"'"
0.1827

0.1070

0.4780
,(11'20'
0.1ol161
0.0811
0.10439

,-''''
,'091

'99'

0'023

c.Dere
0.19158
0.0939
n 1319
-0 D57e
0.2720
00140
0.1m
0.1076
-0.0745
01287

-O.07g.4

O"21~
0.0314
O.'2048Sl
0'''''
-O.oeeo
0.5972

'095
'996

''''
,ooe
2000
ARrtHMETlC

MEAN RETLRN

11.68"

S&P PlJBIJC

unUTY

1'.M'"

II'LIEX

LONG-TERM CORPCRATE BCNlS


BROS. 1-l1GH-GRADE IN::lEX

'00"

'00"
5.66"

SPREAD
~

00327
0.0796
-0.0165
01082
0.1038

O.G401
0.3139

134'

SOLOMON

002&4

""'"

'938
'937

.....

""""""'"
IQNM

0.57<47
0.1102
-0.2196
-Q.3!l9O
-ll.0054
-0.2187
-0.200lil1
0.7563

""

1929

RETURNS

m!U!!!!!l

OF

lNFORMAT1ON:

SOl...H::E OF INFQRMAT1ON: STOQ(S, BONDS,


BILLS AKJ IIFLATlON,
VALUATION EDmON 2001
YEARBlXJK,

IBBOlliON

ASSOCIATES,

2001

STAN)ARD & POOR'S STATISTICAL. SERVICE:


SECURITY PRICE INDEX RECORD, CURRENT

STAT1STlCS

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 4 of 15

_
A._
-_ .... -_
....
_
....
_ .... -_........
.... ~.- .... -,"---- ...
... ..
T\IIdi. ",..,"

..,.",..... ...,..,".
,.,
... ".
"., ...
,,.,
..""... ...""
,,

,
,
,,
,..,
,
",
,,.,
,,"",

""
""

...
.....
...

.n

U,
n
U.

'"

11.31

"n
12.04

..... ".....
"" '"'"."
..'''',,,.""" ,'",,.."..
"" ".
,,"'"
...,...... '.1',."
".,
11.1'11
' .11

,m
"n

'871

.DO

S.51

."
....
".

... ...
..... ......."

,.,
,

,,.,
,,,,.,,
,
,,,.,
,,..
""
,
".,
,,.,
,
,,""
,, ,

......

...
...........
,,...
...
,...
...

...
,..

,.n
,''''
,

."
,.~

,...
,,..,...
'"
,..
'"
'"
'"
'"
'"
'"'"
'"
'"
,,,
'"

n.
'"

>0.

..-... ,.,".
...
""
.......
""
.... ...
,""

,m

,
,

.......

,,,,

1Q1-2DC1O

.."

..........

'M
,,,

..

."
,'"
m

,."
.............."

'.1S

."

m
u,

""
,,...
""
...

....
."
...",
....."

...."

."

".

14 . '

'4.10

.....

''''
".
.n
'"

...,,....
....

...,.,

...
."
U,

,,,,

."

......"

."

.,,"..
'"

'"
Uli

YIIidIl,A~

CCIrpar-.

11.150

"-,,
....,,,,

","
..",
",
m

.,.
,."
....

...'...."...
...
.
n

..
""
""
'''''..
"
."
.....""..."
,..,
"

.~
....."
.. ....
""
,."
...,.
....
'"
"
........,
...."".,
.
...."
."
u,

"'3

.n

'.1'

.'"

."

'"
UI

,m.."
'"
'"
".
....

1HI

,."

U3

,-"

......
."
uo

'""
.,,,

'"
'"'"
,n

'"
".

'"
,."
'"'"
'"
'"
'"
,."
'"

.......,.,.

'"
,

..

'"
'"

...

,..
'"
".
3.31

'.00

..

'"
,
'"

'"

'"
"".

....
........
."

...
<n

-Ul.. ..

---!O!.~

----!.!!!. ..

--'-"-~

.. ow.

1b-2lXlO

",."

11.11:2
1331
12.42

''''

.....

l'iIIdt,'''''_

'.0>

'"
'"

2.J'

'"
,n
'"
2M

'"
'"
'"
'"
'"
..,"
""

....,. ...
......
.......
'"...
....
... ".
~.
'"
'"
"
."

>0,

'D

.."

----1.IL~

-.

."".".

.,.
,..,

.
....,...

..,
",."
,,."...

--

....

,."

8.'5

u,

u,

......'"
U>

"

1D.1Ii

,.n

.n
,w

...

..,,,.....
"'"......,
...
1'.lIlJ

1010

"'''''

......
........
.."
"'......
,..

'2~7
1U13

""",,,.

..",

1tl.lIO

U,

u,
,,,.
....
.n
'"u,

U3

"
....

,.......

'.'8
,.,

."
."
ua

.."
....'"..,
..,.,

....

1.15

..,

."
."

..

'",

....."

.7'

...

4.'7

."
.",
"
,.,
'"

3.71
3.43

".
'"
'"
'",,,

'"
,.,
",

,.

....
".

3.1'

..

'"
'"'"

,
,."
".
....
,...

'"

'"
'"
'"
".
,."
.,.
",

....

.."

.......
'"
'"
.n

...,.......
.......
...'"...
.....,

.,......

....
..."

>0,

.."

--!a.~

----!.E..

~'Io

--=~

--'L~

-"""-~

---IJ!.~

~"'----2!!."

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 5 of 15

SIP
LONGTERM

PUBLIC unLITY "'DEl

CORpoRATE

AND

RONQS YEAR:BY.YEAR

TOTAl.

RETURNS

11281nl
SOP
PUBUC UTLITY
COMMON

'92'
1929

0.5747
0.1102
-02196
-0.""""
-0.0054
-02187
-0.204'
0.7663
0.2069
-0.3704
0:>245
0.1128
.0.1715
..Q.3157
0.1539
0.4607
0.1803

1930

'93'
'932

'933
1934
1935
1936

'937
1930
1939

'940

19<1
1942

...

'943

0=

'945
1945

0.0128
.{).1316
0.0401
0.3139
0.0325
0.1863
0.1925
0.0785
02472
0.1126
0.0508
0.0S36
OA{J70
0.0749
02028
02933
..Q.D2.....
0.1236
0.1591
0.0461'
-O.O44ll

,."
'945
'949
1950

'95'
'952
'953

...

,95<

1955

'957
195IJ
1059

'960

'96'

1962
1963

,....

'965

......

'966

,,

'967

.(10063

'973
19704
'970
1971l

0.1032
-0.1542
O.lese
0.0:241
0.0815
-0.1807
-02155
0.-'
0.3181

15178
1971l

-0.0371
0.135e

'080

0.'508

'96'

0.11704

1970
1971

"n

,en

0.006<

......

1962

02852
0.200'

,
,'967
,''''
,..,
'963

0.2604

0.33011
02853

'!lllS

...

.o.ll292
0.1827

0."780
-0.0257
0.1481
0.Q811
0.1439
-0.0794
0.4215
0D314

'990
199'

...
......

'993

,'994
'996
,"""
,

02...
0'402

.ARITHMETIC MEAN REiURN

11Jll.li

S&P PlIBUC lJT1lJTY INDEX

11.0'.
Ma

LONG-TERM CORPORATE BCJNDS-

STOCKS

LONG TERM
CORPORATE
BONDS

0.02&4
0.0327
0.0798
-0.0185
0.1082
0.103e.
0.13804
0.0961
0.06704

o.o:ms

0.0613
0.0397
0.0339
0.0273
0.0260
0.0283
0.0473
0.0408
0.01n
-0.02304
0.D414
OJl33'
0.0212
-0.0269
0.0352
0.0341
0.llS39
0.00<8
-0.0881
0.0871
-0.0222
..Q.0097
00907
0.0<82
0.0785
00218

o.D4n

-0.0046
OJX)20
.(I.OOl5
0.D2S7
-0.0808
0.1837
0.1101

OD726
0.0114
.(1.0306

0.1~
0.1865
0.0171
-0.0007
..Q.0418
-0.0252
-0.0096
0.4378
0.0470
0.1639

O.3OllO
O.1Q85
.0.0027
0.1070
0.1823
0.0878
O.1fil88
0.0939
0.1319
.(IDe,.
02no
0.0140
0.1295
0.1078
.().O')'4!j

Ma

SOLOMON BROS. HIGH-GRADE INDEX

SPREAD

SOURCE OF H=0RfM.11ON:

SOLIRCE OF INFORMATION: STOCKS. BONDS,


BILLS AND INFlATION. 2000 'r'EARBOOK.
1B8OTSON ASSOCIATES. 2000
STANDAAO
& POOR'S STATlSl1CAl SERVICE:
SECURITY PRICE rt-.oEX RECORD. CURRENT
STATlSTJ:S

Docket No. P-03-4


Work paper # 7 to FJH9
Page 7 of 15

~
Ii

~
~

i!

"

I .." ..
i " i..
I Ii
I I"

~
~

li

~
~

i
I
Ii !
.. ..

~
g

~
I
~
..

i I.. I

I;

Ii

!
8

Ir

."
I. II
~

:1

~
~
I
~

Jill

rr

ii
JI

H
g s
II

!"

i i

s5

~
5

f~h
!M 8
1ft1

HI
.j.

m~

Docket No. P~3-4


Workpaper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 8 of 15

Docket No. P~3-4


Workpaper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 9 of 15

S & P PU8L1C lJl1L1lY STOCKS IAONTH... Y AVERAGES

OF DAllY

!NEXES

Ml-1943 '" 'OJ


TAR

...

,""

""
""
""
''''
",.
"".
"
""
",.
,..,

..

"'"
""
""
""
''''
''''
,
,."
"
,""

JAN
3110
<900
'225

Xl,

2410
222'
'''0

,,'"

2131
2....
"'0

,..,.

...

11397
1325

922
lJl0
1391
2'3<

...
,...
..... '...

,,.,
""

...

,
''''

''''

''''
""

,m

2020
200'

2'"
233'
29"

""
'330

FEB

<39ll
2428

2'"
23<3
13"

..

,,
""
"...

'2<0

""
,....
... ""'"
""

,....
,."

,"'7
,

...
",.

""
1m
""
""

'58'
'<>0

...."'"
81!02
"'2

ll3<3

"'''
8001

<73,
2""

'036
2113
221'

,"'.

"77
183<
1219
7...
1035

'2"

1<478

1475
21.2
1872
'602
1699
2092
20>0
2256
2'"
2639
3072
3321
32"

213'

,"'"

'582
1671

203'
203<

2239
2<>0
2590

'07'
3207

3229
""2
<3"

5273

""

3178
5132

1218

.. .... .....
''''' """ ....
""

"
",.

3232

WAR

APR

..
...,"" ,..,,.., "..
,".,
3181
5121
'''0

63'0

3<0'
0720
770<
7187

,0<3

"""
"'"
"2'
62<8
57<7
5732

3531

"'""
""261
1925

190.
124'
2131
2062
'2'"
'''97
1657
,1<,

...
,"'"
,...
'225

1531

2260
1BOO
113'
2'00
2016

"""
..,e

'602
8921
7003

.,.,
680'
'"""

....

62<2
5713

"(17

391,

,7Zl

2Oll2
1827
1321

2022
"13

,""
,""
....

'072
7"

m,
'230

,""
"'''

"'0
170112
1752
2123

,AJl

1305
2'"
1672
217.9

7702

252'

'BOO
1370
'002
7<9
1151
1275

,'"

2280
1762
1785

...
"06
1574
'BM

739
'2<0
1310
1117
2174

,.,.

m,

3193

""

'''0

3181

3303

3<03
3657

""

'203

8730

m.
'006

"'0

"""
"""

3719
B20ll
"70

""

'''2

",.

3731

'258

,..,
....,
47~

'5332

..... ""
7730

?41g.

...,

67"
6739
6021
8329
<922

7070
6292

-........
""
.....

...,

'2<
'203
'33'
1883
2'32
1020
"0<
"23

,'"
'"

'236

1317
1758
'820

'''''
1702
1875

28704

300'

......

1074

2882
'25'
3339

32&1

'''''

1091

,.,.

233.

"00

5884

'892

2....
1700
13"
1618

2376

ZlB9

2821

457~

2.01'3
"20
1375

2251

212'

"""

5270

2080

2263

""

8212

"...
'''0

2239
2369
2706

'009
83..

SEP

,""

203'
2280
232'

"'2

"'2
2165
21"

'969

209<
2005

2239
2306

Au:>

3ll"
.....
....
"., ,=
"... .....
,....
,... ,... ",......
""" ,.... ""
,..,.
,'79'
....

35134
011
5lIOO

3578

'''''
'313

"'"

330'
3762
"'2'
<602

... 2
.."
644'
7033

''''

6730
6777

""
"""

..

"

3750

.....
""

6119

""

6657
7117
7471
83"

""
'01<
3<00

285'
2135
'772
'370

..
..

"
,",2
....

23&<
1510

'762

,.,.

2'"
2137

1287
1985

'230

23<9

,.

1325
"02

'865

2011
'832

2005
1917

17118
1716
'906

''''

"'"
,,,.
""
,,

123'

"...
,m

...

""

,,,.
1829

"25

-...

3039
391'5

"62
3OBO
<0"
<3"

""
..."

671S

'207
7610
6311

'337

.'09

.,,,

....
323'
3093

.....

'2329

13"
'1<
"0
1176

1016
"2

3161

,..,

1513
'052
'29'
'2'
842
"80

'''''
6219

<962

"'"

31113

3229
3106
3ilin'
4359

<>'c

.....

2933
21'4

3107

0=

"'"
"',

....""....

2422
2819

2103
23"

>920

3282
5151

ICJV
4214
.... 2

1927
2'00
23"
2470
2862

,1iI1S

"'" ,...
.'" """
.....
.....

"32
'0111
BOO6

ocr

2"0

229'

..."

""
5f'69

""
.", ..."
...." ,, ...,
..., ""
"'"
""
""
....
"22
.....
"'"
505.
50"
...,.
.....
...,..
5,,.

.....
5890

574'

'<39
'872

7039

6116

,"'"

..

2''''

2<32
2517

29<,
319'
~'70
3179
4205

""',

.".

.....

"77
602'

........,"",
'<2'

"".
....
706<

570'

.m
<373
32B5

........,,
"'"
"""
""" """ ...,
"""
....,
""
.....
"'"
""
,,..
......
"'"
"''''
""'"
'm
""
""
,m
=
"'" """
""
" "
......
""
""'"
"""..
"., """ ...
""
"
"'
,
""" """ "'"
...,.
''''''
""
.....
"""
""
..., ....
"" "...,.. ""
"'"
.....
"'"" ..... ....
"'" ....,
,....
......
"'"
......
""
..."..
'""
.."
.,
...
"""
'''"
"
.,,,
""" ,,""
,.
"",.
""'"
'099' ","'"
''''
....
''''37 ,......
,"'"
"., ,,,,, "'" """
,..,..
,
......
,
....
,"""
,...,. ,..... ,..."
,,.,
"" "'70 ,..., ,""
"".
'''''
,,,,, ,""" ,58<' '''''
,... '"''
'809'
,.....
,....
,,'"
,
....
,
....
'" "'0
" ,"'" "'"
""'"
'....
... ""', "'0' ,"""' "'" ."'" """"
""'"
"""
"'"'
3819

"
<03'
...

52'0lil

32<0
3033

'''0
807.

517:1
S062

5171

<83'

SOlJ3

6152

..",

7814

,- ,-,,.
'1107

'2OOIl
10613
1,.s7

11957
11067

'233
621'

'899

1O>:l7
11765
10n4
14192

14319

,.
.."""
'1107

16870

2023'

'6441
1&117
203

170<8

15817
'92<8

<367

.,23
10376

10412
11991
,<099
14313
14161
'722'
15757
'6223
,llO25

5063

...
",.

..

23917
30770

2<01'
24133
2333'
319711

2<320
2<267
23220

32894

'3573

13n5

17165

15370
17050

'5758
19072

1llC71

24470

"""

Ill87
B50ll

B722
11213
11063
'0B49
13722
13788

2BOIl3

3323'

.:182

B99ll
'0ll65
11283
'0900

12n4

14725
16751
15374
160113
'9291

"..

3232

-,- ,_

10311

..",

.... 2

3329

2OU4

2301'
2<03'
2_
32810

"37
<367

5057

303'

5181

'583

,."

3819
<007
'257
32'0

'201

...,.

.32.

....

200.

""
...."06, ",.
3706
..."
83"

WAY

P. 38

25863

"""

..

24213
258<8
2722.

298"

3232
5118
6<06

5"15
:i11D
5101

3300
.2$9

-..

4377

'20S

BOO6

11061
11173

..
,,,_ ,_

11410

"300

11170

13278

13791

14158

8321
11853
11no
10789

,-

11311
'0967

'5743

1n15

''''7

2357'

"""

26284

,,_,- ,-

18676
10202
17898
' .... 7

2_2
2<977
32'"

""23

"33

7202

,.",

'3033
''''84

<932

...

5'04'

50<,

6600
69'0

S30l

15212
17""

..

2:"~
23611

37371
2379'

'2670
24379

'8922

'0332

2_

llOB3

'0230
11302
152111

15718
17"'"
15120
19753

,.."

25726
222<3
332<3
22933

Docket No. P-03-4

Work paper # 7 to FJH-9


Page 10 of 15

YIElD OF lHE S & P PUBuC UTlLITY S10CKS


MON1HI.. Y AVERAGES Of: WEEKLY I!'IJEXES (PERCENT)

YEAR

JAN

FE8

MAR

1928

390
266

39.

373
250
25'
390

,.'"

'030
'93'
1932

...

IIl33

''035

'.36
'937
'93'
1939

...

,, .,,
,..,
,,.e
,....

"',

".
,,.
.,.
637

66.
80:1

."
730
563

..,

717
940

... .......
""
,... ...
'"
'....
'043

52'

'''7

..

1950

'1952,

,'"

1994
'955
'958
'''7

,''''8

1959

'96'
'962

,..,

......
,,...
...
,,'

'''7
11i170
1971

'072

,."

'.73

1976
'018
'077
191B
1B711
'980

.70
OS<
'06
050
511
'20

..,
."
..7
487
377

...,
358
320
330

33'
315
347
392
433

.....

58'
50<
942
668
713
020
778

25B
264

369

..

.00

010

807
."
....
7
707
033

541
".
01'
588
588

",

208
363
582
58'
947

......
......,
....,.
5,.

.13
...

480
385

316
320
333
312
39'
393
<50

....,
,,,

...

.70
582
722
1182
77.
734
81'

...
....
"'"
'..,
...
,,....
82'
,...
... ,.. ......
... ......""
...
'99'
...
,-,,...... .......
...""
,'...
'''2
'083

'''7
'988
'.99
'000

'092
1993

7"
7.'
893

.7.
1074

'033
'077
ll80

880

83.

7C1
588

711

673

f1CII
572
637
15
50<

51

529

50.

48'

".7

."
30<

"""
,."

'13
287

."
l6

275

..,
."
660
812
396

".

...

01.
657
766
1013

...

66'
'26
302
372
667
65.
539

...
......
...".
940
512
503
487

377

337
313
330
337
31'
37.
399
"2

P. 35

"""
"'"

265
234

""

734
.. 3
'58
"0
'(J7
'12
766
800
059

MAY

2".2

508

....
7
'021
412

..,

".
583

'21

"'"
..,

,,.

..."....
....
.........

482
3
"0
326
3'.
32.
395
315
375
303

.....

66'
396
'01

059

050

"'2
'094
"'7
503
.,2

530

>43

...
...
...
.....,

""
652
66'
66'
697
'005

366
530

.....

322
248
250

.30
"5

"02

...

393
283

372
207

015
94'

50'

'"
'OIl
....
538
'92

.,.,
...
"7

'"
39'
392

...
,,.

AUC

SEP

OCT

tUV

33.

304
433

312

3"
'69
304

31.
205
3..

30'
31.
.,0

JUL

.75

"""
573
002
375
632
800

"or
".

,..

3S2
537

636
033

e,

39'
37.
326
371
33'
323

.10

'58
808
093
533
943

....
.....

.....,.

....,
39'
375
317
301
323

33'

33'

333

30'

303
<20

<23

<72

487

32'

51.

'17
548
B04
805

637

520
50S
B04

002
823
81.
725
.22

727

102

56'

8'0
750
.'S
097
1085

807
151
8,.

817
7<2

1010

'023

1018

'027

'033
'027

BCl

982

837

63'

66'

043
'003
'087
630
,llOO
7..
880

825
537

003
503

ll21

8"
67.

630
080
823
783
7..
823
892

'007

"02
7..
828

800

730

706

56.
616

588
808

7....
982
578
BOll
580

.10

588

'73
566

63'

823

50>
577
538
"'7
.17

1011

no

734

07'
018
1077
.20
ll53

507
630

71.

no

620
803
8"
058

6"

577
033

53'

51'

599
947
483
583
."
533

""

288

380

376

369

"'"

280

28'

57'

667
613
7,.

43'

....
7

436

.72

'58
..7

.20

366
'70

51'

536
580

'"
.....

".

.19
433
399
392
3,.
367
32<
320
320

'01
889

'"
....
500

332
372
"7
050
585
800
'72
943

........,
48'

.'"

""

.,.

398
3'"
307
370
334
31.
327
..3

.....

<50

"7

550

.,. '"
...
...
... ... ......
...

.....
''''

'58
033

803
300
366
01.
579
580
'10

'"

523

63.
..2

..,

...,

558
734

...
...."
.....,
.......

660
539

31'
350

588
.11
.25

'"
.,.

'27

500

00ll

390

399
397

...

'"

372

"'"

<28

343
337
3"
330
398
483
'31

.21

56'

580
580
940

632

3..
31'
329
30<

...

...
,,,
....., ""...
"'"
""
...,... ........, "'"
,"'"
..".,
""
."
...
.,.
.,.... ."
,..
...
...
... ...
....... ...
... ... ... ....
'" '"
''''

582
573
802

563

50<

7'

'035

748
7...

83'

753
".
..7

020
..7

077

538
758

'020

."
794
707

.71

830
722

BOO
043
019

'049
'022

03'
817
8<Z

709
805

50S

..

50S
538

,,.

.73
815
003
832
637

083

980

7..

8O.

593

802
587
662

482
525

7<5
710

lI8ll
701

660
580
."

663
573
571

B9Q

505

...

505

386

on
,..

388

..7
28.
367

271
366

366
358

39'

<00

,,.

32'

"'"

3Q8

"'7
332

340

"37

2.'

....

...
.. .......
",

".
,<80

......... "'"... '"'" ""... '"....


""
.....,.,.
,..
..,
""" "'" ...
.,.
.,.
...
''''
...
""" "'"
'"
'06'
.,,,
.,.
'"
...
". ... ...
.,.
". ...
... .....,... ... .,....... ...
...
........ .... ...... ... ....
....... '"".
..
'"
".
.,.
...
...
.,.'" ..,
''''
'"
,..
.28
51.
.71

803
070
582
635

323
346
3"
336
315
393

32.
33'

.53

801
701

315
310

583
572
806
807

503

m
308
437
660
58'
0"
7..

."
.... '"...
.....
.....
". ...
."

63'

366
30'

482

393
331

630

."
...

.94

.,.

...,

.....
.,.

837
799

......... '"
...58'.., .....
... "....
'"
.....
."
48'

....,.."
176

DEe

,..

....,

Docket No. P-{)3-4


Workpaper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 11 of 15

S & P PUBLIC unUTY

(19411943

=.

YEAR

'928

",.
'930

'03'
'03'
,'1l33
'.35

...

,."
l1i137

,."
'.39
,9l
'9041

,..,

,....
,,,
,,

......
......

1947

'950
1951

'05'
'95'

'954
,,.,

'956

,,.,

STOO<.S . MONTH ENDING PRICE INDEX

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

oW

,=

3171

",,.

3390
"38

37141

3781

,."
om

3207

"'"
<0"
'306

,,.,
'177
".,
2119

2383

1339

,..,
1616

12"
970
'"

1214

,<7,

220<

'660

,"'7

"'"
ass'
"""
,,'"

1813
'137

,26<1

""
""
'373
""
'25,
aoo
,""
'0"

2200

'960

U13

'230
1506

2230

20"

'95'

,an
"""
20"
1632'

222'
'<70
259'
3013
3167

'929

'564
"70

4580

1974

"SO
'00'

'BS8
'25'

149'

1526
'6<0

...

1073

1110
'220
'596

'30

'447
2208

"'"
"23

'653

2422

3256
3394
4372

'965
'958
'967
'958

197:;
1976

1m

3233

34"

340'

..7.

7695

,."

"00

'000

663ll

6177

BS80
588A

65"

5912
580Il

396'

..12
5411

4610
"21

:;147

"""
"'0

'506

728

'200

13SO

,,,.
1827

""

....
"'"

76S9
,,.,

sa"

3253

.."'"..
"44
"84

"51
3771

"21
0lil70lil5

0013

~28S

553'

844'

'''''

""

m,

....

6580

6612

....
.... -

6258

0607

"""
"'''
...."
.....
"

117"
6240
<7117
5996

,,,,,

S206

0533

,,-

11327
118041

1-4613
160204
17310
16107
204<3

"."

..

11846

""'"

11519

104078

,,,'"

,104143
17107

'6256
'6009

"""
2372.

22593
2470ll

",..

25'05
,,,

=n

3263'

40'0
52T.l

5351

5209

SO'O

....,

""
,

..."

6304

0038

5271

.....

'''0

S792

S20A

S058

5113
52-47

S021

"

'OS27

10119

'"''
'042'

11023

..,.
5124

5338

""

'0583

'009'
'0790

53'"

5315

"""
"'7
""""
'0"

5220
""

'206
6332

.,..

'''0

11167

11307

,,"'"
13227

,- ,- ,".'" "'"
,,,,......
" 76ll
14272

'03n

1243

"95

"
,

"....

13'"

10lil178

'3858
'7345

"83'
'5938

2329'

24312
32357

17227

"3"

'3011'

104513

"023

,,..,

'6783

19217
11151.

'0092

'4007

Zl580

",..
20'59
"".,

"""

26'"
'73S0

3:!99A

1-4139

'3058
'4133

17534

'5399
'6756
H"OS

"

,..27"

'27'

"64
"53

3125

".,
'204

"SO

"56

3270
31-42
3732

......,,
6270

'058

364'
.....

...7
.,12

7_

7610

7aaa

603'

6295

6583

BS85

.717

"..,

50"
5264

5S53
SS58

S620
5892

"'"

5186
3<38

72"

.. "'"....
"""
589A

58113

"""
3152
'230

"""

5287

0'""
..,.
"'"

llI3

S07,

50,.
521.

4907
"'"
5038

"'"

6711

1237<4
11747

,<06,

4320
S029

""
.. 23

"'"

500'

5302
S920
7018

"""

,O9Oll

11711
11188

1713lil
1&478

27970

62"

"..
"401

17410
16788

"'"

6528

rer

15n04

23662
25590
3102ol1

""
7,..

"27

'5843

'735'
",.,

16a1

,,,

'308

58'

,.".

"250
,

2414

'505

3166

'20'

..

""
' ,
21i'2

'ASS
25'0

"'"

3170
3176
3214
~28

..,.
......" ..,......, ...,
4<0,

""
"42

6761

,17059"

""'"

30312

3OA9

'.64

SS58
5860

'A300

25751

""

"00

2586

,423S
'3302

"""

",.

2383

10451ll

23372
2537.

",.

,,,.

23"

12844

'402'

."

'929

,,-.. ,- ,.....
""

aaa

,m

2320

4915
54"
528'

1142<4
112:17
111121
14219

.58

,""

23A6
13..
1597

2313

<784

5813

...
...
"..

1878

,,..
,

15"

'95'
2OIl'

0lil113

"'"
....,.

2306

""

1213
2025

2320

'009

4233

52"
'200

'939

'604

56"

5llOO

1313

'90S
1937
200'

5205
"40

5320

'.25

,,,,

16:21

"'.
.....
.,.....
....
....
7""

...
,""
,.,.
1327

2197

"n

'633
'583

3370

'609

3815

17..
""

3132
321-4

,.<7
""

""

2366

,...
....,

1703

2353

..".

'99'
'.58

17004

,."
'266

"""

2730

'605

""
206lI

"'7
21m

1~1

"00

...

58"

'039

2012

".,
,..,

CEC
4724

2025

'706

'831

NOV
ABS8

1314

"06

:mo

OCT

,ass

12..
'337

"20

307.
"00

5800

'25

,
"'",'"

1201

2380
27'38

.,..
......

'003

'84'

'309

"..

,<09
'694

...

'604

,-,.......

23Zl

1311

22..
"58
2753

"'7

'869

'430

120'

,""
1991

2000

5222

7809

49"

603'

""
"

n1'

...
...
,-..

"'"
""
21"

7025
7200
8322
6637
5393

""
"22

"00

2133

5202

.'30

,
,..,
,
".,
"
"'"
""

"90

1i62
1723

5197

.'69
...,

..,'99'.....,

"""
5873

461'

6221
6583

,
,,."",

.."

"58

'BS8

'958

,...

3872

"
"os

'''7

"00

"'"
173'

1479

'<124

2380

..
.. - .. .,-- .... ...... ... - ..
6221

..

'oaA
'958
'958

2365

3217
3362

,oao,
,,,,,

1$178
1979

2215
"""

3325
32..

7306

706'

1725
"02

,OS.

8432
"OS

nos

"
1672

2900

6399

'.53

..

22n

""
,,,,

""
13"
,

,..,
,,..

'31

..

2173

352'

''''

177'

1618

""'
,....

<7'"
20n

1741i1

"84

"

..

808'

2387

1672

'25'

7335
534,
3837
1750

SEP
3914
8073

'662

57J

1237

'58'

ALX;

3815

"
,,..

1397
2117

12117
"20

.lJl

''660
5001

'20'
710

20"

3211

"99
'000

1322

,09ll

2600

"OS

1322
""

5282
4101

'504
1072

206,
223,

,....

,"',
58'.

131.
'053

20"
2015
2260

206S

,ll82
17041

2157

589'

1970
1971
1972

.."",.

...,.

...." ""
,."
"SO
..
..
"
"",
'96'
..
"
,,,. .,,, .....
H'"
,...
"'"
"" ....
"SO
.",
........
,,.,.
"'"
.'02
"'" ".. ....
....,
'97'
....
""
"'.
,,.7

p. 38

10)

"""
,422ll
11413

...

1.04101
14737

, ,
"'"
'530'
,"'"

.... ....

......,
"""

5176

7578

6100
'84'
7",
15"

"'"

9608

6456
7_

.... ''''
....

7217
5890

,m

""
.....

8:!41

-,
""
""
549'
4958

"'"
"95
,m
""
sa"
"58
11582
7400

10163

-.......
""
"'",
"OS
"'"
,.,.
54"
...7

..

"".
"".,

,-.....
",.
"17

9317

11229
10212

",.. ",..
,''''"
'''22
,

1551ll

'5367

17<22

17259

,SOOO

151)12

"990

20259

'958'

"""

19755

2OOlI6

25S53

25046

25298

'A277

,,-

22594

22722

"993

3S06,
:l366ll

33783
201676

204575

2....

"""

23'2lI

"'"

25lI62

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 12 of 15

PUBLIC unUTY

YEAR
'928
1929

""0
'931

'93'
'93'

,,'"

1935
1936
1937

STCCKS : [NCX>ME.

JAN

FEa

M""

API<

,."'"
,"'"
,."'"

'a,,,

D.CICI3:!

,.=
'a,,,

,."'"
,."'"
,."'"
."'"
,.""
,

...

,
,....
D.ca37

''''''
,.-

,."'"
"'"
,."'"
,.""
,'''''',
,"D"
,."'"

.... ..

'938
1939

,,"'''',,
,,"'" ....
,"45
.... ."'"
,."
'''''
,
,.""
,,....,

''''''

"""
,."'"
,."'"

'''''
,."'"

...

,
..,."'"
"'"
'''''
,"'"

'.am

,-

,,.""'
"'"
,....
,."'"
,."""
''''''
,."'"
''''''
,."'"
,."'"

,."'"

,.....

."",
,"'"

....
....
,."'"
,"'" ,,.""
....
,."" ,...,
'''''''
,

O.lDl1

''''''
,."'"
,."'"

,-."'."'""
,."'"

,.....
D.taI'

,"'"
,."'"
,"'"
'''''
,."'"

... .... '''''


."'"
."'"
'''''' ,."'"
'''''
'''''' '''''
,,."'"
..... ,....
,."""
''''''
... .. .""
,
.....
.""''''' ."" ,.... ,."'"'''''
.""
"'0'
,... ,."" '''"''
""" ,."'"
'''''
,."'" '''''
'95' ,....
,''''''
..
, ,,.""
..
,
,."'" ,."'" ,
,,...
.....
.
....
... ,,."".., ,,."""'" ,."'"
,
.....
""" ,.., ,."'"
'''''
,."'" ,."'" ''''' '''''''
,"'"
''''''
,
....
,"'" ''"''
,.... ,"""
..... ,""
'06' ,
,..,.
'''''
''''' ."""
...
,.""
.""
'''''
,
....
,..... ,."'"
,."'"
''''''
,,...
,
....
,.....
.
....
.
.
...
.
.
....
...,... ,.... ,,."'".... ,.""" ."""
,."'"
........,
,
"'"
,
."" ."'"
...""g ,."'"''''',.'"" ,."'",."'" ,,,."'"....... ,.""
,'06'
."'"
,....
.... ''''' ."'"
.....
''''' ,."'"
."'"
,... '''''
,......
....
.
... .."""'''''' .""
,."'"
....,
,." ,."" ."'"
'
.....
,.""" ,."'" '''''
1949

'900

,,0:1
,OS<

,"'"

MAY

1957
1958
1959

."'"
."'"

0.lIl24

O.(I)l!5

0.0047

0.0047

0"'"

,.""

O.Ml

O.CUIl"

0.0047
0.CO&2

,.""

0.110111

CI.QOoI2

0."'"

O.root1

00042'

,.""

,.""
,.""

0""

0....

'963

...."

0.0031

0.0037

1970
'971
'97:2

1i741

'970
1976
'977
1978
1979

,.oo
19B1
1982

,.""

....
,.....
.... ."'"
,.""

,,
'"'"
,."'"
,."'"
,,

...
,...

'.0077

... .."'"
''''',
,... ....
,.,.., '''''
"'''''
....
,-,...
,

'003

1985
1986
196'

0.00II1

C.lDlt

"'119

'092
'993

,... ."".......

''''
'990
,,..

,."'"
..,.""
"""
,,

...,
"
"'"
,a"

,."'"
0.01121

..... ...
.....- ,... ..-...........
..-... .-

'.OOTO

."'"
,."'"

.AJN

JlJL

,
"'"
0.0<".

000'7

''''''
,"'"

,"'"

"''''

0.00017

,."'"
,.""
,."'"
,."'"
,."""
,.""
'''''
,
,."'"
,,.""
"'"
''''''
,
,.""
,."""
'''''
'''''
'.lID<

0.0071

....

'''''
",m

,.....

,"'"
,lID<

,-

,."'"

,.....
'.lID<

,."'"
,.""
,"'"
,."'"
,."'"
,

.-....
,.""
0.0024

... ,""""D",........
,."'"

0.(011

."'"
,.""

,."""
,am
,"'"
,.""
''''''
,."'"
,.....
''''''
,."'"
0.""

"""
,,""
,."'"

...
........

,,
,
O.lDl1

0.007.

,.""
''''''
,.""
,."'"
,.""
,.-

....

.""
, ,,
,

AUG

"""
,am
"""
,....
,."'"
,
,"'"
,"'"

,.....

''''''
,."'"
,."'"
,.....

."'"
,."'"

,"'"
'''''''
,.""
,.""
''''''
,."'"

,''''',
,.....

...,

'''''
''''''

0.0074
O.CIlIl1

0<....

. lII7T

'.OOTO

'0077

.""

'''''

,."'"

,."'"

.0076

'.OOTO

'.OOTO

,."'"

,.""'

0.COT8
C.ODet

0.0028

..."" ....
.""
."'" ,"'".....
,....
,."'"

."'"

,."'"
''''''
''''''
O.DIII1

,.""

.oo"
,."'"
,.""
,OO"

.lII7T

.0071

'''''
'.lII7T

'.OOTO

,."'"

O.lD51

''''''
D.tal1

0.11041
0.0047

D.lI047

,"'"

.,"'"

,."'"
D.t:Il1

,...,

0.00:11

,."'"

.""
"D"

."" ,."'"
.""
.""

DEe

t<JV

,."'"

,""

."'"
,"'"
,....

,."'"
,.""
,."'"
,
C.llOM
0.0081

'.am

0.0041

....

,"'"
,

,.-

,."'"

''''''
,oo"

,.""'
,."'"
,,.....,
,,."'",
,....
0.00.1

..... ..
'''"'
,"'" ,.,.., '''''
'''''
."" .""
,, ,
DCD52'

'''''
'''''

.-....
''''''

'am

,."'"

,."'"
''''''
O.COX!

....
."'"
,

0.0031

,."'"
..... ''''''
'''''
''''''
.....
''''''
,..... .....
''''''

,"'"
,.""
,,

...
,."'"
"

D.a:",

."'"
."'"
... .....
'''''
... ,."'" ...

, ,
,."'"
,

."",."",."'" ."'"
"""
.""
,.,.""
."'"
........ ,.""
....
,."'" ,
,."'" ,..
"'"
,
...,
,
...
,."'" ,."'" ,""'
'''''
,
.,""'"" ."" .,""
,
....
....,...., ,."'" , , ,."'"
,."'"
."'....." ''''''
,..... ,."'" ,.""
......
,."'"
.
"'" ,.... ."'"
,
,
....
,."'"
,."'"
..... ,
,... ,,....
,....
...
,,."""
....
,
,."'"
,.""
,"'" ,... ...., ,... .... .... .....
,.., ...,
,,...
, ,,,...
..
,
,.""
...
,."'"
..
,
....
,
...
,
....
,.""
."'"
....
....., "........ ,.""
."'" ...... ...
.....
.""
."'"
."'"
''''''
, ,- ,.... ''''' ,."'" ,."'"
.."...'" ...
......
."" ..... ,."'"
,...., .""
,.""
.""
,.... ,."'" ,'''''
..... ,.....
,.""'

'.OOTO

a.0ll'.

o.~:z

D.C052'

'''''
,oo"
, ,

"
''''''
,.....

,"'"
,.....

OCT

...."D", ,.... ....


.... ,."'"...
.... ,."'"
""" ,."'"
,.""
,."" ,"'" ."'"
,."'" ...., ,,."'"
."'" ,,...
... ,.... '''''... '''''',...
00016

..
...
,,.....
... ,."'"
,.""

SEP

."'"
,."'"
,
,."'"
,."'"
,.""
,oo"
,."'"
."'"
''''''

''''''

,.""
,."'"

...

'''''
,

,."'"
''''''
,."'"
,,

...
,.""
,....

O.IIMI

O.~1

,."'"
,."'"

,"'"

''''''
,."'"

'''''
''''''
,."'"
,."'"
,."'"
,.""
,"'"
."'"
,."'"
'''''
,"'"

,,....
"'"
'''''
,."'"
,,

... ..

."'"
,."'",
,.....

,"'"
,."'"

,."'"
'.lID<
'''''
,."'"

....,,,........."'",

.""
,.....

''''''
"'"
'''''
."'"

,."'"

0"'"

,."'"
.....
.
,.....
""" ,..., ."'"
."'"
,,."""
....
,.""
.,....... """.""....,."'",.... ."'","'",.... ......,....,-....
.-.....,."'",.... ..,,,...,....-..., ,,.-,."'".... ,."'",."'",.""
.-,... .-,... ."'"."",."",."" ,."'"''''',......... ,."'",.""',.... ....
."'" ,.... ".",
."'"
,.... ,.... .""
,.- .....
....."'",
,."'" .""
."'"
,."'"
,."'"
."'"
,...
,."'"
."'"
,..., .....
,''''''
,,....
.
.... ."'",,....
...,
.....
....
....
....
''''' '''''
...
,
....
,.""
''''''
....
."'"
....''''',..... ....,.., ,,."'".,........., ......"'"''''',."'",.""
.,............. ".m,"'"".m .-. ."'",,"'".....
''''''

D.lX)Il

"""

.".
.

'.0076

,."'"

'OOTO

,.""

'.0076

t1.lIDll1

O.Dt

.0013
'.0013
'.0077

11.l1l11

,."'"

....,

O.OOilI

'lID<

O.DOa'4

'.llll3O

Docket No. P-03-4


Work paper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 13 of 15

PUBliC

unUTY

STOCKS : CAPITAl... N'PREQATION

YEAR
'928
'929
'930
';31

JAN
0'""
0.1'
O(J11!J

FEB

..""
-0011:::

...

0._

......
""'"
.....
~"'"
,." ."" ~."'"
,.,.
.....
'93'
..
"""
,.,.
."'"
,...,
"
..,..,

'93'
'033

1934

0.07"6

O.t.

-a.118l!1

0.1067

OD1M

oom

1038

..
...
"...
"..
,,....
...
,..,
,,
,

0"""
.(1.01~
0.0171
0.11112
0....

'941

0.""
0.1172
-0.0031

1042
1043

'950
1951

1953
'95<
1955

D.D"~

"'"

0"""
0.""
0."""
0."'"
0._
0'"
0."""

...

0"''''
~

-0.04111

0.0lI91

-0.0131
D_

..."""
0....
0.11211
00013

......,
0"'"
0"""

0"'"
00139
-0.0101
0.0097

0....
O.cl317
0....

0.0110

.,(lOICB

O.OU12

0.0114

,"',
,"',
,'963
....

-Q.1l14'

001.7

001117

...

0"'"

G.bl
0.....
O.01i!l1

'965

0."'"

......
...

,
,"',
,,

'01'
1975
1976

"n
1ti178
1979
'980

,"',
'983
,....
1982

"",

0.""
0.....

~."'"

~"""
0.021.
-G.011D

0.10/""

D.CllI1li
.0.0102

......."'",
0."'"

0.....
>Un"
.am
00512

'090

...",..

0.0112

""no

'908

.0.0011

400111

..
.""'"
......

"'

...

~"""
D.016olo

......
"'''''

0.14615

00120

0."'"

DO!l'
-02012
-oDot10

0."'"
-0.0137
D.1D:!1O
D.m13

0011S
0.0012
0.0140

-G.01i1!l

0""'"
O.D1U

."'"

.....
0""

o",n

0""
0"""
0"'"
0.01.

.u<
-0.0421

..,.,.
D.21Yl

0.1333
0....
O.1.!151
0.0431
0....

O.DD13

0Ol11l
-00014
0._
0."""
0....

oom

....
0_

..(103111

o.021ti

0.""
0.0172
0.0171

0012
-00153

...""
In''l)li

.."'" .....
.......
...,
...""
."'.. ."'"
......
OOOOl~

,=

0'"

0.0106

..m"

0"""
0.....
000140

0"'"
0.""'"
.o.CH10

"''''

D.14i

".0021

0014(1

0=

-o.12X1

0.1622
0....
0119

0.0170
-0.0180
-a.1Ill11l

-0.0177

Q.a219
03111

O.1!!Q

0."'"
-00012
0.0111'7

.....

0.1011

-00513

.."'"

GOO'S
0.0144

"

001511

o.om

~""

-0.0121

om"

-0.0578
.o.O'!l(I

.o.021,J
.oOT(lll
0.0767

...... ... ......


ALG

... "."'..",
.."'"
"""
.,... ."."
.Q01~

a.rols

-o03fJ

oam

~"'"
~."""
~ ,
-0.01"6

0_

..."'"
0....

"'00"
-Q.fDl1

-o.041D
00171
-0.0481
0"'"

..."'"
0"'"
001m

0"'"
0......
0."'"

."'"
....

0'""
0.0337

...

~"'",
~
0."""
00313
0....
-0.07411

~....,
~

....

0"'"
0.0102
0.0102
0.015&
~.."
-Q.011n

0.0015

0.0143

0."'"
0.""'"
0'"

oom

~......

0011111
.o.CH07

..00100

.""

0."""

-o.01eo
-0.1220
0.0131
00374

~"""

=
-0.01"
-0.3037
4.O&f1

""'"

-0. ,_

..""
-0.0755

0.1188

~....,
0""

01747
0....
0".,
-0.0919

0.""'"

0.130(1

0.02&1

-oOIlD

0....
0.-

0""'"
-0.10711
-o.01111
-0.0112

-00113
0....

0""
0....
0....
.."

..

oom
0.0138

.""
.......

-001111

O.~77
0024'

0"'"
0'"
0....

-o.COlD
4.U.u
-o..'J1~
-oCl311
-0.111151

...""
~""
"'"
~."'"
.. "m
"".,
o"'~

-00131

0"'"

0""

BEP

-0.0425

".0193

"'"

0010
O.CHII8

.."""
0."'"

..

00&13

."'
0.'"

.om
-0.00111
0'"
0.0"

..,....
-0.0123
0._
-0.0117
0.0370
0.0124
0."'"

..."'"
.0.0061
001311
0.0102
0.....

0.0111
0....

.,.,..
..."'"
......"'"
"'"

~."""
-G.I)'23

.......
0.0123

......
. om
..0.0157

."'"

..""
.......

...",

-G.00I1

..,"'"
-0.0137

."""
......
-00611

0"'"

..,m,,,
.",

0....

O.02tO
00121:1
-G.llII13
0.....
0."'"

-G.Ol.

"""

..,""
0"""
00138

..-..

0""
011.01114
0.01"

-GQ11J1

..,"'"

""
.."'"

0.0000

....

O.GS'"

0."'"
0.0100

.-

.."."

D.001e

-00151

01:811

0."'"
-0.02151
-0.0211

0..,'

...0...

.......
.c.l2r7

DO=

"'"

0.011
0....

"".

0.1_

."'"""

o.om
0.0242

-0.011

0.""
0.06111

.om

0""'"

..00312

OJ,,"

."'"

~-......
."'"

......,

....""
"'"

-G.012O
0....

o.ooz>

0.0631
-o.01I1l

0-

""""""

0."'"
0.0181

..."'"
...""'"
-GooUI
0.0213

.",

001(11

-GD31li

0.0311

0.0270

......

.(l.Otit
."".

0.""

0......

0."'"
0."'"

0"""
0."'"

. moo

..

0"''''
0.0241

-0.0120

0."'"

0."'"'

"""

0.11311

0.....

"'"
~.....
~"'"

...

..,"'"

-G.00I!I1

0."'"
0."'"

0,"41
Ofl11!i

0."""
0."'"
. 0270

'''''0

0.0117

...",

-0.0110

0"'"

..."'"
..,....
-0.0813

."""
."'"
0"'"

..,"",

...""

-O.OWG

.""
...om

D.1IJ11

0"'"
-G0218

0""
00113

......,

..Q.OI:!2

-0.0125

~."'" 0_

G.071li
-G.0111

-0.0'71

.a.D1t1e
011,

om

-G.0101

0....
4011
0""

001:18
11.0167

0"'''
0'"
0.1342

...,,,

0."'"
-0.01111
0.012'1
0'"

.Q.lMTJ

...."'"',..
.."""

.... . ."'"
..... ......

-G.0210
0.....

."'"

0...

0."'"
0."'"
0.0107

0."'"
-00411

-G.0111!1

0....
0._

..,

.."""
."'"

-Q.111M

0.0118

0"'"
0.0152

0.2120
-o.I4i
-O.OJ'112

."'" .,'"..
.."'"
.=,
0."""

."""

.."'"
0"""

0.....

-0.1105

~.""
.... ."'"
~o,,,
."'"
o.om

0._

-0.1261

DOI93

-0.0070
-0 oe11
-00112
0.....

00110

0.=
0",.,
-00143
0.0&715
00143
0.0171
0....

D.1XJn

""'"

."'"
..."""
......
"'"

..

oom
0."'"
0""
0"""
-0.11113

"".
~."'"
0=0
0"'"
00310

oom

.0.0110
0.01
.o.CHQ

0"'""
0.0110

0."""
0"""
-0.0106
0."'"
0.0152
0'""
001116

0'""
-00317

0"'"
0"'''
0....

0.11011

0.0117

0.0144
-G.0lS31
0....
-0.0103
0"'"
-O.1Z!f1

..."""

~..., 0"""
......"'" ."'"
""
0.0110

0.""
0.""
0_

0.0311

0"""
0""
0.04111
0.....

.0.0142

0.....

-..."",

.o.lJ211
0.11312

..

D....

0.....

.......""
"""

..... ..."'"

..."",

0."'"

..."""
.."'"

.."'" ."'.. ~"'"


."'"
0.011\16

0.01'"

0"'"

.."

"'0767

-G.0I12
-G.OI318

"'0000
0.....
D.OU1
..,0...

0."'"
00144
.0.01 ..

."""

0...(J.1111

-G01li1

,,""

.(LOS13

,,,

0.....

.. om

.......
......

0.""

"""

...om

-0.0106

~"""
........... ...""",,,,....,
......
0."""

DEe
0."'"

......
..
"',.
...... ."'" ......
."'"

....... ~.""" ..."'"'


..."'"
.......
...
"'"
..."" .......
..,...""'" ...""" ...~"'"
......
......"", ..."'" "'.. ......,
.....
..,'" ~..... ....... .. om .......
.0.0101

NOV

~-

.. ..... .....
.. .. ..
.
....
.
..

..... . ...... ...... - ....


.
.- .-.... ..... .- ..... ....
.....
0''"
-G.D3111

.0.01)4

-o01N

0"'"

..

....,

0....

,, ,
, ~.,""
.....
'093

~.=

"'"
."'" ......
.....""'"" .....
......
."" ~.""" .
..,""'.
~.-.."'..
0."'"
0....
0.0132

........
,..,
,..,
.......
,... .....
".. ...,
....
,".,
.
,. ......
.... .."'"
1985
'066

.-.....
oom

D.'~
D.on~

.....,
"'" ..."".."'"
.....
"'"

1960

0....

0.115l54

..0.0110

-o.om

-0.1125

0.....
O.OCC7
O.DltiCI
0.,"",

0.",",
0",.,

- .....
-0.1065

01111

-00911
-00521

.....

0_

0.=

-0013&

.""'. ."'"

-001011

....,..

-0.1421
0._

0""

-0..011'
..0.0411

"""
"""

..
......

0'"
-001;"

D.lHlll

,,""

-0.1105
-0.1131
..Q.Ol~

MAY

u...
-o.1D86
-0.
,_

~-.......
0."""
.0'"
0.....

APR

...""

,957
'9'"
'95'

1970
1971
1972
1973

..""
-00148

MAR

-G01QlS

....

0.0000
0""
0.....
0....
00312

..-....
0."""

...
.......
..."""
..,..., .."" .....
0.01i1

0....

0....

0....
00'01

""

00123

..QOIC!2'
0.0713
0._

0."""
0"""

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 14 of 15

PUBLIC VTltJty STlXl(S : TOTAL RElUR'NS

YEAR
'928
'920
'll3O
'931
'932
'933
'9"

.IAN

"m,

"'"

'"''
"'"
..."""
-0.0311
0.1147

..

~"

FEB

......
".0232

,.""
o.j~4

,.""

...,.,

-D.1984

.AR

,,'"

..

0.11112

"."

-O.,~

..

-O.10f10
.(1.0'12

0.0195

-0.18&4
-0.1378

D.D1!S

.0.0103

'9'"

,....,
'''''
,
,.,.,.

~-.. ...

-oOlQ9

'"
,..,
~.""" ...om
...""
~"" "."
"." ,....
, , ~,....
.... ...""
..."'"
"""
'943

19"
'.38
'939
'936
'931

-0.1138

'""

..

'.0006

-0.15315

-o.~,
0.11711
-0 De15
~.07>1
O.l~

.AY

,."'"
"'"
~."'"
...,'"

"""

0.1732

..,..

""

0.2179

o.,m

,"'"
0.,.2\5

..... ,....""
"'" .....

".070'

..-~-.,.""

.....

-0 OMS
O.OUI1

.....
-0.'''''''

...""

.AlL

AUG

~."'"
..., ,.'""
"""
,."'"
~= '''''
"'"
"'"
~..., ,.....
"""
"
0.0176

0.3317

-(1.1204

,
,....

'945

'.ll252

0.1217

G.DlOll
D.04!ii
o.111illl

tl.07111
0.01751

'950
'95'

'953
1....
'955
1956
'951
195a
'959

'96'
'99'
'992
'963
'99'

-o.1~
0.0412
00104
.",

0.0347

D.llXIl

0.1_

0.0171

-0.03111

...",

0.0185

001;3

OD17~

-o.D1~

001510

"""
,,.""
'''''
,."""
~....
0.0142

0Ol~
-0.0101

,....

D.Oll?

O.Dna

,....

"""
..... .....

.(1.0110

....

",'"
,."'"

,"'"
..."'"
.am

-0.0061

,
,,.....

0013'

...
......
001111

00102
0.01.1

0.0081
00185

.(1.01112
00121

,.....,
,.....

......
,"'"
0051e.

.......
0.0108

-OD12D
,.",

.......
..,,..
.Q~14lil

D.le
-0.0423

0.1671
D.01U
0.1:zoe

~
~

-01174
0.01111
l:1.0iI21
-00210

-00193

,JXE/

0.0106

.(I.0lI01

~
0.0121

O.lXI31

0.0214

O.01S3
00151

-0.0771

-0.0273

0111
00211
-o.041ll
00173

...

,."'"

OD133

.. om

-QQDn

-o.~7

'.aJ1O

.(1.0123

,."'"
.......

"""

00109
D.tOTI
-0011:1:1
0.0424

,....

0.03'24

..(10150

0.0740
-0 ,~,

-0.01"3

,ggg

'0'"
D.D1ZJ'

.(I.Q2SI7
0.0271

.(1.0414
..(10156

'919
'98'
'98'
'982
'983

0.107.
DOHll

C.ODST
0001

,...,

0.0"11

'989

'9ll2
'093
'995

..

-0.0511
-o.OMl

...om

-tLC017

-0.0211

~
~

~.0.04"

.."
-o.0111ll

-o.Q2111

-11.0810

401.

.".

-o.CEl12
-0.0247
-0.0224

0.0102

,,.,,
,.....
O.D1~

1I.01S1S

001815
0.1XI17

0.0108
-0.02.
0.1187

-0.03&13
-00514

.........""

0.1153
0.0!71

-0.0301

0.01!50

'.0323
0.Q2SI1

"'.01"

0.0571
00158

-o.CEZ1S
-II.010l1

0.0157

..".

-11.0''''
001.1

'.0012

.."
-lI.OO'I!I

0.01a

,"

.......

"""
"'"

..."""

-O.lloIl::ot

0.'.

'.0212
-o.01111
-0.0123

'.0034

00187
0.01.

'.ono

-Cl.0414
0.0018

,.... ,...,
~....
......
~""
,..... ......
".lI301
.

-D.0147

-D.01111

0.0110
-0.0150
-lI.01M

,.....
,,'"

01'"

-11.0247
0.0510&

0.0170

.. JIm
-0.0114
-001..,
0.0171

-o.CEl1~

0.02C1

0.lllIIS1
-0.0130
-o.CI01.
-00181

0.0021

0.03115

,.00<1

.....
,....
,.""
~.....

01Xl18

0.0547
0.0181

41'37

".0331

401:rr

00413
0.0170
0.0410

.......
"'"
"'"
"', .......

-11.0114

1I.12f1

0.0:'"
001111
-0.0210
-0.0140
0.OU1

,- ....
0.02116

-0011.

0.0'01
-11.0140

'.o:m

".0302

...""

0.0318

001'"

011574
-001.

0.0':72
0.042.
0.OC01

0.CEll0

-0.0113

,.....
01224

-0.0616
011111

0.0130

.......
0.0317

o.CEl12
-O.01U
0.01111
00ff7
o.1:sn

.."""

.....

..Q.0Cll1

"""'

-o.11!52

NOV
O.21.n

-o01l1C1

.".,

00101
0.0410

0011:11
-0.0012

,."'"

-0.0014

..."'"

0.00178
-oD11J,

.."',

-00151

..

0.03ll1

-D.12al'

.(1.0'130

O.OH:iI

0012'11

..."""
~."" ,."'"
<om
,.""
,,....'" '''''
~,." ,.",

........., ..

-0.0133

..

,...,

..(1.01.

-Q.C10115

0.0100

,'"
~"" ,.....
...... .."'"
"...
-0 Dell4

,..,
0.1362

DEe

~""
'''''
~.om
..""

0.0'.,.;1
0.0541

-0.031

-11.0811

-0.1.
-0.0140

".0001

.0.015

-0.0136

'985

'981

-otll1!1

."',

..(1.1047
-00711

001711

-O.08~

""..

-0.0118

...
..~....
"" .."" ..,....
"'"
~"" ,.= ,....

00016
-00131

".aJ1O

001

.. 0211

-oOAll

'998

.(1.0181
..(1.0131

0.0197

1li170

1971
'072
'073
197"
'015
1976

~.

D.OUD

0.0112

0.0168

."'"
,.""

0.01%2
00471
0.0105

..(I.d1

..""'" ..
,."'"
.......
..

..''''''.., ,."'"..., ,... .. .,.,....,.


...... ""'" ..,."'" ...... "",. ......
......
......
,... ,... .."'" ......
~..., ,."""
,... ....
,....,
... ......
""" ~"'"
....
"'" ,.=
,."'"
..."" .."'"
."", ........... ...... ..,..."" .........."'"".. .... ,.=
."'" ........ .....
~."'"
......
......
'''''''
.......
..., ..."'" .."'"
,.... ......
.....""'"
...
",.,
..
"'""
."
..
,
.....
....
,."""
,."'"
,."'"
.
"
..
"
"
,.n '''''' ...
..
,,, "'"
....
""" ..... '"'' ..... ......
....
'91' ,.- ....., ,....
...,,,
."" .....
"'",
...
......
~."'"
,..... ...""'"
."", ...... .....
......
....
,.""
...""
"'"
.
..... .,,.....
."" ..... .....
,... ,.""
,..... ..... .....
....
,
.....
..."'"
....
,."'"
,."'" ,
..
"'"
...
.
...,
,... ....,
.......
,
.....
.....
.,..... ... ,.'"'" .."'"
,.- ,."'" ......
.....
..",.
.-,..... ~"'"
,.... ~"'"
,... ..
""'" .......
,.... .."" ,."""
'09' ..."" ..."",
,
.....
.....
"""
,"'"
,"'"
,..... "''''
,..... ......
,"'" .....
..
"
'"
,...
.....
..
....
..
"" ,.....
'''''
,
.....
,
....
"
...
..
,,,.,
... ,."'" ......
..... .......
...... .....
.....
.
......
."'" "''' ,."""
,,

'99'

-00138
0.011SO
0Ol~

.....

..(I.D018

-o.on4

0.010)

"'''''
,."'"
-0.1'01

....... ,....
...."""'"

Dll:l13
-00130'

C.OllH

OCT

.. ~""
~."'"
"
.. ,.......,."" "."......." ..,...""
,.""
...
,."" ,,....
,.""
,....
0.0418

...,.""
"'"
...
"..,
.."'"
''''' .." ...
.....
..... "'" "... "'" ......., .........."'"""
'''7
,,...
.... .....
....,....
"", ,.... ..... .....
.,"...."" .....
,.....
,.- "'"
,.....
,..... ."'" ,...
......
,..... .....
.....
.......
,."'"
'''''
....
....
,..." ,- """
.... ,.... ,,."'"....
..''''''"" ..........,
'9<2

.EP

-013

o.o'~

-OOln
0.0120

.-......

''''''
"""
,."""
,
,,....."
.....
""'"
,,.....

,."""
..,

~.

'.ll:!l2

OOIt.4
.."

-00117
0.0701
0.0119

,.....
00312

...

D.03!S2

,
,.""
~."'"
Otl13

D.D'~

...

001&04

"

O.~30
0.07:24

...""

~.0031:1
0.0117

,.""'

D.01efj
0.0130

001,.
-4l0Ull

.om

~-

..,,.""...."'"
-0.0141
0.01'0._1

......

0.11&11l

.......
...,.,
'.lI1lI1

.......
~....
."'"

..""....
.....
'""
~""
.""
,....
,...
..'''''
..-......
,."""
0.0817

'.ll:!l2

-0.00:21
'.ll237

..(1.01
Oai57

.."'"
-0.0011

~."" ,,...,
""., ....
..,."""""
'.om
......
,..... ,.""
'031'
.., ,.....
......
,."" "'."
,..

0.0712

".0300

-11.0174

..

-II.11n

-0.01"

,.....
'.lIlI01

.....
,."""

1l.04I1
O.CI017

90/11

.-.

0.1XI18
-0.01411

......
...,

-O.Q:I1S

..."'"

,....
......
....... ,....
..,."""" 'M"
0.11316

01."
0.112'0

O.o11ll1

......
...."...
..,..
O.OUD

."

.,."'"

"""

.."',.""""
,.....
".. "'"
...."" .......,
.."

01""

0.0111

. .
- ,-

'.lI1lI1

.. om

-D.lIlISl

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 7 to FJH-9
Page 15 of 15

TOTAl.
RETURN
SUMMAR"(
JAN

YEAR
1928
1929

1930
1931
1932
'933

,0:,'
Hl35
1938

1937

-GEe
0ll7~7

0.1'02
-o.Z1i16

....."'"
".,

.."",
-0.2"7

....
"'"

."'"

-o.J704

1038
1039

01'28

,..."

-lJ.t71~

,,...,
...,
"''''
,,.....
....

-0.3151
O.15l11

.."'"

O.1l1ll3

..ow

....,
."'"
..
'"
,... ..""
......""
19...

,""
....
'9'"
1950

19"
1952
195'

0.0126

-0.1318
0.315

0.11&3

D.~n

1955
'950
'957
'958
'959
'960

'96'

'967
'963

,....

'90S
'966

'967

'96'

'989
1070
1971

'97'
1973
'974
1975
1976

lOn
1978

01125

D4Cl7C1
007.11

"""
'''''

-0.0244
D.1ZJ6

.....
......
......
O.1!!l11

..
..
"""

-o.15Q

"
,..,

0.0241
0.0815

.Q.Z1~

......
D.St't

-0.0311
0.1_

.. ......-

1079
1080

,,
'803
,....

,- .............
(1,1174

'967

,,..

0.2001

,..
...""
...."
"'"

... ..

15187

'988
'9;0

'90'
,992

,....
10"

'996

O.1~
0.0811
0.1438

...,..
.

-..-.
04215
0.01'4

...,..., ......
..."''',... .......... ,

1096

O.11Sl7

Docket No. P-03-4


WORKPAPERS
(Consisting

to FJH-10

of Workpaper # 1 - 3)

Source of Information: Value Line Investment Survey, Summary & Index, Various dates

Docket No. P-D3-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-10
Page 2 of 13
Part 1
File at the nom of the

Summary

THE

Ratings & Reports

&

binder. l.as1 week's

Index

should be removed.

Sumtna1)f

& Index

July 25, 2003


Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

~=7~~~::g~tm.~r~:~::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::~~:~~
SCREENS
Industries, in order ot Timeliness
Rank .................
24
Timely Stocks in Tlmely Industries
..................
25-26
Timely S_
(1 & 2 for Performance)
.......... 27-29
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 tor Safety)
........... 30-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
....................
32
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price P.otential .... 32
Biggest '"Free Flow" Cash Generators
...............
33
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
.............. 33
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
...............
33
Widest Discounts tram Book Value
......................
34

The Median

of

Estimated

The Median

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of

al stocks

with earnings

Martet Low
g.2t.(J1

16.0

IS.4

Estimated

Markel.\ll!Jh

4-16
20.9

Marllet Low

Ago

HHll

2.0%

2.2%

36
36
37

37
38
38
39

The Estimated Me<ian Price


APPRECIATION POTENllAL
of all 1700 stocks in the h~ized

economic

1.90/0
26 Weeks

35
35

enviroM18llt

3 to

years hence

600/0
Martet High

26 Weeks

4-16-02
1.6%

Marlier Low

9-2HI1
10S'"

Ago
7S%

M.rket~

4-1
5S%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (neX112 months).
PAGE

Advel1isi"!1 (71) __

.
IIll4
AerospacelDol .... Itl) __
. S43
Ai TfllJ1SllOlI
(51)
253
ARlarel (S2) _._._. __ ._ 1651
Auto &Truck 121) _._.
__ 101
Auto P.... (42) _.
m
Bank147} .
__ .2101
Bani< Can8llan) (33) __ ._._._ 1570
Bank Midwest) (SO)
613
Beverage (Aixlhoicl (61) __
1537
Beverage (SolI Drink) (45)
1545
BioIechnology

(54) _ ..__
Bui~i1g MaIeriaIs (43)

Calli> TV(II)
CaMlianEnergy(7D)
Camont&~(ll)

__

_.. m
151

130
._ .. 421
_._....1t7

"01emi:alIBasi:) liS)
1231
01emi:aJ (DivetslIsd) (II)
116&
O1emi:al(SpeciaIy) (73) __
4n
Coal (48) _ _._._.
52S
Co~~1s
(24)
1101
Co~", Sd!war&'S>cs ft3) _ 21n
IlMlrsifl!d Co.(71) __
1371
"On'll (12) _.
_. 1246
E-ColMlorce (11) ._ .. _
1435

of

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend
paying stocks under review

17.4
26 Weeks
Ago

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Retums
........
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield ....
High Returns Earned on Total Capital....................
Bargain Basement Stocks
..........................
Untimely Stocks (5 lor Perfonnance)
...............
Highest Dividend Yielding Nonutility
Stocks .........
Highest Growth Stocks
.............................

PAGE

PAGE

PAGE

EclJca1ional5ervi:es (2) _._.


Hil4 Insurance (PItptas.) ftl) ._ .. 516 Raiload (S&)
211
Eledrical Equ~
(55J _._
1001 1_
(3)
_.222& R.EJ.T. (M)
1171
Eledric UtiI. (Cen1raQ (16)
.615 InvestIII8I1I Co. (23)
.l15li
1141
Eledric Ulilly (East) (71)
153 1.. _
Co.(FoIIilJl)(6) __ ... 361 Retlau,"" 17}
216
Eledric Ulilly (WesI) (10) __
1171 Machinery (14)
..._ 1331 Relai Bulling SuAJIJ (I) __
111
Eledllll1ics (51) _.
1024 Manuf. HousiVRV (61)
1554 ReIai (SpociOIlinos) (34) __
11116
Enter1ainmMl(2l) __
"1162
Marii1le(31)
.._. __
210 ReIalSlOl8(27} _.
1m
Entertainmenl Tecll (31)
.1516 MecicaI SerW:os Itl _.__ ._.621
SoQIitios Broie."ll" (3G)
.1425
Envioomental (37)
351 Mo<icoI ~
ftl)
117 SemicaQd:Ir (31)
11lS1
f""ncial Svcs. (Oiv.) (4CI1 __
2133 Molalf_i1g
ttli) _._ .._ 565 __
E"" (J5) __ .1081
Food Processing (61)
1411 "Moials & MilIi1p(Iliv.) (64) __ .1221 Shoe (26)
.
Food l'Il101esaie!s (25J __
._ 1532 Nalura/ Gas (lJistrIl.1 (15)
451 S1aoI (Geno<aJ) (II)
516
FOIB9' ElIICtronics (53) __
1561 Na1lnl Gas (Diy.) (41) _ ...._ 4fT SIooI (1nIoPIdl (12)
1415
Fore9' Telecom. (5)
. m NeMp8per (61)
_ _.1110
T
E"""""I ftOJ __
745
FumIHomeFumishings(l7} __ .. IM OIIicaEqu~iosft4)
_. __ .1136 T
_(22) __
7211
Grocery(72) .
._._1517
OifieljSdE<M>.(77)
._....._ .. 1844 Texlile(62) .
.1.
Healhcarelnkrmaliln (32) __ .. 651 Paciagilg & ~
(12) _ .. _123 "TJviII (2lI)
.1161
Home AppIance (50) _ ..
. 117 Paper.foiest Pr_lI3) ..__
._105 Tn & RI.ltlel (63)
111
Homebui~i1g (I)
.. 167 P_lIIII (inIeII"al8d) (44)
4DS Tcmaa:o1M)
.237, 1m
HoIsl'Gamilg (51) _ _._. __ .1111 PeIroleum IPID/JudIIgI(15)
1133 T~
(21)
Ill
Househoil Pm<U:Is (13)
140 Phlrmacy SerW:as (7) ..__
716 Truclli1g 1651
2lilI
"Human RIlSllIJ1CllS(11) __
1210 Power (10) _

.._ . 174 W/JltIIUIiiIy (74)


1121
IndustrialSeMces (57) .__ ._ ... m "ProciousMOlais(35) _ .....
1211 WII6IessNoIwoIU1g (31) __
511
Information 5ervi:es (4) _ ._.314 P!odsiln _
(41) __ .._ 124
"1l1SIJrance(lie) (71) _.
1205 P.mIishing (66) _ .._ .. _
RoW!wed in this week'I issue.

Recr-14ll

I.

1.
I.

In tbne part&: ThJ.. .. P.rt J. the 81U11


... 1'7 IDdIlL PIri I .. SeleetioD ....Ophllem. P.n
RatiDp Ie Report&.
Published weekfv by VALUE UNE PU6USHlNG, INC. 220 East -42nd' Street, New YOI1t, N.Y. 10017-5891

o 2lXl3.YIU ..... ~
IIIC. AI ~11.....s.
FdII1 .. liIIIII 5 atIllllir* ..
_
~
CWISSICWSHElEM. n. JIIMab Ir~
b Mtfl~
.. -. _ cor .....
.....,-.
.......
cr-'Ililgl"'''''''''or
IIlIpvdul:l ca...lh:ioII.
b..,.. \IIiiI' ...... "0.
k1_I--...,.
CMIlIltxb"1
1II...-.c1ar ~

---=~....a

'*' (1/"" .......,.,_

III blllillflllft
pal

III.~

iIi ~

IIV11l11...... 11c. ar
t1tei1g

..

lId .......

v....

LVII1, No. 47

..01_.,.nt THE~PlBJSKER.. IS.,,~MOT !S'OICSIU FOR


__ Nfl
.... BRlRS
_"b

u.PI.tIIIIing.1Ilc..
_
ftUlI bll:lIIIIMIlll

iR_
bIfr" ......

~GI'

orm

Oft

....,-=-iIidriMi"'~-.a.

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-10
Page 3 of 13
File d' u,~ 110m 01 me
Ratings & Reports

'ALUE LINE

THE'

binder. last

week's

Summary &. IndeJf


should be mr1'lOved.

Investment Survey'

June 27, 2003


TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

Industries, in alphabetical on:::ler ......................................................................................................................


1
Stocks. in alphabetical
order
,
2-23
Noteworthy Rank Changes
,
24

SCREENS
Industries, in order Of Timeliness Rank
TImely Stocks in TImely Industries
TImely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Polential
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

The Median of Eslinated

24
2So26
27-29
30-31
32
32
33
33
33

of al sloct<s with earnings

The Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(neld 12 montl1s) 01 all dividend

paying

slocks under review

MarI<e1 H~h
4-16-0
20.9

26 Weeks
Ago
2.1%

Marllel Low
11-21-01
22%

Median Price

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of al11700 stocks in the hr:othesized
economic environment 3 to yearn hence

2.0%

17.1
Marllel Low
1I-21-Ot
15.4

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

34
The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

26 Weeks
Ago
15.6

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Siocks with Highest Annual T DIal Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on T olal Capital....................
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

60%
Mar1<e~h
4-1
1.6%

26 Weeks
Ago
80%

Marllel Low Marllel HJt


11-21-01
4-16 2
105%
55%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
Advertising (14) __
.
1924
.Aerospac:aIt)ef .. (93)
.. 543
Ail Transport (77) ._ ..
.. 2S3
Apparel (33)
.. __
1~1
Auto &Tnd (19) _. __ ._.... 111
AlkJ P8JII (49)
7'J1
Bank (53)
, 2111
Bani: (Canadan) 121)
._.. 1570
Bank IMidwEll (54)
113
_90
IAk:ohoic)(69) _, __ 1537
Bewra90 (SoIllJrink) (44) __ .. 1545
'BiclIocIInoIogy(II) _._._
.._ 671
Buil:lilg _
1311 __
.. 151
CabllllV (17) _,
130
Canodion Enel!lY(71) __
428
cement I Aggregates (94) __ 117
Gtll"ni:aIIBasic)(95)
.. 1238
Chemical (Diversified) (III) .__ .. 1916
ChomicailSpocioly) (10) ..
. 477
Cool (41) __ ..__ ._.
__ .5Z6
CompWnIPenpherals(21)
11M
CompullJrSoIlwamIS ... (14) _ 2171
Dive!silied Co. (II) __ ....__ .. 1371
I)ug (ID)
.124&
E-Connnen:e113) __ ._ ..- .. \435

In three parD:

PAGE
PAGE
__._.._.1114 1ns ....... IProp'Cas.)(15) _.__ ._.!IM
EleclricalEquipment(55) _._.1101
1_
(3) _.
_ 2226
EIoclric lJIiI.lcentraij 1141 __ ,__ 195 __
Co. (23) .._ _ _ 951
EIoclric UIi!iy (EasIj (79) _ ..._.153 IIM!SlmenI Co.(Foreignl (U) _.369
EIoclric UIiIiy (West) (91)
1711 Macl1illOlY112)
._._.1331
EIeclJlIlics (52)
. 1124 ManlIf. HousilgJRV (10) __ ..__ 1554
E-(25)
_._.391, 1112 Marline (27) _. __ .._ .._..__
2ID
E_
Toc:lI(34) __ .__ 1511 __
II) .__ .... _._.129
Envionmontal(32) _. __ .__ 351 _
Supplies (5) __ ..._._,
In
Filancial SYc&. (Do,) (37) _ ....2133 'MoIaI Fobric:ati1g 197) _
_ .....!65
Food Processing(75) _ ... ,.._._ 1411 MoIaIs I Minilg (Div.) (SO)
_. 1m
Food Whoillsalnrs (3') _ ..._.1532
_
Gas (Ilistrib.)(II) __ ..... 4SI
Fofe9:l ElIdranial (15) __
1511 Natural Gas ([)iv.) (301 __
,1J7
FOIOignTelecom. (9)
.... 771
lI1D
FIIMiane FLmilllillgs iMl _. IN
0IIice E'
. (21) _ ..._ 1136
GIOCllIY(5I)
._ 1517 0IfieId SvtsIEquip.llI)
__ ._1144
'_care
Infom101iln145) _ ..151 Packagi1g I Contai1er (71) ..__ .. 922
Home AwIance (41) _,,_,,_,_,
117 PoperlFol1Sl Producls 119) _.._ 905
Hornebuiililg (I) ..__ .._. __ .167 P_"'IIntegrated)
(411 _.._ 405
HolBlGamilg (61) ._. __ ...... lm P_um (Producing) (1& .__ 1933
HouseholiProducts (72) _._..,_._139 Phannocy Services (I) __
_ 716
Human R_
113) ._ ...__ \291 Power (&7) _....__ ..._ ..._ _. 973
Industrill Servia!s 113)
327 _
Metals (43) _ .._.
1219
~
_
(4) __
.3M
_
k1sInIIlIlflIl3Il _.
.124
InsuranceIlIe) (73) .__ .._ ..,_.1215 Publishing(57)
_._ 1191
Educational5eM:es121

.. ...a. YU

Ita lISiI'I"I5IIIenl

__

-...s
1iII,. .-lWt,-.
pIIlIbtiIII-,_ ~
__

SCIlII:I5litlntl' III~ ....... Mltt;"......


__ I ..
Ill ..

SII'IID.,,-a.. .........
"J _ *b bin r.-...

rt~

n Ii!. pwIikIliIL

..........

.....

IIlIllJ bill
IISIItl
InPlllllilllq. ~15 ..

st-.Id lie aIIIhr'lIllo

lIf(

._

~ this week's _.
Lvm.

VoIu.e

P\BJSHrR IS tII01lfSPOlll!B.l
iI .,

l5cdil

an'" III...,.

.., 111

. m, 1m
ToioIrilsK:osmlllics (11) _ .._119
Tndilg (7\)
Z68
WalBrUliily (74) _.
._ 1421
WilOless _ng
1411 __
511

Tobocal (17)

I, the SUlDIIDIlJ')"a: lndu. PIU'1 2 Is SeIKtion


.. OpInl.Oft. Part 3 Is Ratlnp &: Repor1a.
Published .... kIy by VALUE UHE PUBLJSHNG, ItiC. 220 Eat 421xt 5hM, N..- YOOI.,N.Y. 10017-5891

111)' ..........

LiIt. ..

rrel Rubber lI2l .

nu. Is Part

C lIllD. V'IW In PditWlg. .. AI_


n ...... r.aull ..............
OIIISSICRS1II1B1. Tlii pIMaIiIn iI Yd,r 1m" ea ~
-. ~..c.l
..........

Newspa:.:.:pes __....__

PAGE
Ralroad (51)
.. 218
REJ.T. (15)
.
1178
Reaeation 142)
. 1141
Reslaul8tll (!OJ _._.
2M
RelaI Buldi'g SuPI'iJ ITl __
III
Relai {SpecialliJes) (31) __ . 1711
Re1a1Store 147)
1671
SecuriIies 8roMrage151) __ .1425
Semicon<lucllr (35)
1152
Sernica1dudlr Equip (71) __ ._ 1191
Shoe (21)
1m
'S18oIIGenoraI)(III' __ .__
571
SleoI (k1Illgnied) (92) __
1415
Telecom. EQllilJoilent(l2)__
745
T""'"
-(24)
720
TlllI!ile 111)
lliS5
ThriIIIII)
.1111

__

No. 43 .

FORAIR' (UOJlS OR

~.--.......,.a:.M

wi lfadiK.

....-:
III till

..

.....

iJNdMIlI. .....

Part

I.

THE

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH10
Page 4 of 13

ALUE LINE

Summary

Investment Survey'

Index

File at the front of the

Raoog.5. & Reports


binder. last week's

&

Summary

& Index

8houlc:l be removed.

May 30,2003
Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

Industries, in alphabetical order .........................................................................................................................


1
Stocks, in alphabetical ortler .................................................................................................................
2-23
Noteworthy Rank Changes .............................................................................................................. 24

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank ............... 24
TImely Stocks in TImely Industries .................. 25-26
Tmely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
27-29
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safely) .......... 3D-31
Highesl Dividend Yielding Stocks ....................... 32
Stocks wilh Highesl 3- to !).year Price Potential....
32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators .................. 33
Besl Performing Stocks lasl13 Weeks ............... 33
Worst Performing Stocks 'asl 13 Weeks
33
Widest Discounts from Book Value
34

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

The Estimated Median Price

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend
paying stocks under review

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

of 81 stocks with earnings

16.4

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


35
Stocks with Highest PIEs ....................... 35
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns ........... 36
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield ... 36
High Retums Earned on Total Capital ........ 37
Ba'llain Basement Stocks ................................ 37
Unllmely Stocks (5 for Performance)
36
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utilily Stocks ...... 36
Highest Growth Stocks ............................. 39

26 weeks
Ago
16.1

Market Low
9-21-01
15.4

H~h

Market
4-16-0
20.9

of a111700stocks in the hr,othesiZed


ecooomic environment3 to years hence

75%

2.1%
26 Weeks Maillet Low Maillet H~h
Ago
2.1%

4-16-0
1.6%

9-21-01
2.2%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL

H!8r

26 Weeks Market Low Maillet


9-21-01
4-16 2
Ago
BO',4
105%
55%

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable pertormance (next 12 months).
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
Adw!Ilising /II)
._. 1124 Ed<JcatiooaIseM:eslZl
__
.. 1511 Insltance (Pmp'Cas.) (II) _ .... _ 515
AerospaallDolense (97) _"
543 Eleclrical Equipmonl(561 _ ..._. 1011 ._
(31
2226
Air Transport (Te) __ __ ._ _.2S3 EIeclJic lJtiI.(ContraQ (I') _ ..._.6ll5 _
Co. 122)
.._. t5I
Appaml (321 __ .
.__.__. 1651 Eledli: Uliliy (EIISI) IMI __
.. 153 Investment Co.(Foteign) I2DI __ 3U
AIIto &T1UCk126) _ ..
111 EIeclJic lJIily (West) (J7) _._
1771 Machinery (TI) __

1331
fui.D Parb (41) _.
1117 Eled.ronics (69)
. IW Manuf. HousiIgIRV /13) _._
1554
Bank 115) _.
._ .._.2111
E_ment (3D)
.1112
Ma<tine (H)
211
Bank (canadian) (II)
__ 1m EIl1orfajMlOlll TocII (49) __
Modical5orlices /I) __ .
121
Bank (-> (52)
812 Enviunmonlal (21)
351 ModicaI Supplies II) __
._. 177
BMrago (AblhoIc) (54) _ ... _ 1537 Filancial S>cs. (!IN.) (36) __ . liD
Motal Fabricali1g 196) .
. 554
Beverage (SoIl Drink) (31)
1545 Food Procossing (Ill) _._._
.. 1411 Motal; &
(Iliv.) (72) __ . 1221
BOocIuIaIogy (67)
m Food Whole.... (3i)
1532 Natural Gas (IlisIrib)(12I __ __ 45t
Buiklilg _
(37) __
151 FIlOign E8:Inri:s (&5) __
1561 NaWraIGas (Div.) <Z3)
cable "IV (15)
130 FllIOign TeIocom.(12)
771 Nowspapor (41) _.__
.__ 1910
canadian ElIOlg)' (55) _. __ .411
FumlHome Nmisl1ings (93) _.194
0IIi<B Equi!"Suppiios (24)
1131
Comon! & Aggregalos (95) _._ 817 Gnxery (S7J .
.1517
0Ii0ld SvcstEqu~. (73) _. __ 1944
Chemical (Basi:) (92J
1231 HoaIhcare Inbmation (ID)
...
Packagllg & Corda .... (70) _._ ... 521
Chomical (DiveIsifJld) (17) _ ... 1966 Home Appiance (31)
117 PapetlForost Products (II) _ .._.t05
Chemical (SpeciaIyJ 117)
471 Homebuiililg (11
.157
P_um
(JnloglaIod) (35) __
405
Coal 113) ._.
.__
.__ 521 Hol!!IIGamilg 140) ._.
.1111
P_um
(Producing) 121)
.1133
Co~eripheral;
(27)
.1116Household Produdsll2)
m Pharmacy -II)
._...718
Computer SoIlwalOiS"ocs (13) __ 2171 Human ResoortoS (91)
1291 Power /101 __
._ ..__ ._ .. '73
DivBlSi1ie<I Co. (14) __ __
.1371
111<Mtria15orlices (61) _.,_
327 __
I; (51) _._ ... _.,_ 1211
Drug (7)
.__
1246 In!onna1i>n _
(51_. __ 313 Precisiln IristrumIri 141) __ ._.124
E-CorMlen:e (16)
0_ 1435 Insurance (lIe) {11~ __
OM1215 Publishing (51)
M 1196

I.

_g

PAGE
Ralrood (5t)
211
REJ.T. (H)
1171
_
.1141
Ralaullll'll (If
.__
2!lI
Rotai Bulding Supply (14)
AI

(341

_(Sp.cillil

) __

1M

SocaIiIios Brokerage (74) __


SomiconduI:b' (53)

1152

RotaiSlln
__

Equip (71) __

W_ ~

'*" .._,....

kJ...,.,

"ICbm~

.., -. ~

~III"'" 1I_."~

11191
1193
1415
745
.720
1115
._ 1111
111
1577
II.
2iI
.1421
.512

-Reviewed in this: week's issue.


v~u ..

:tlm. VIU '--1'IdsttIj. K. M rigIIIlo InInIIll , ........


i5 -...a ...._
k
MIl is prvNIIIl .....
__
lItE P\IIJStR:R IS MJI IESPOISII.
HF'EIt nil plllbliMii JId}''' ed"~J
-. -.cM.-.I
,_,..
IJIiI~."k'~
tI'SIIIII. _Id
..,
..uIiIg..,. ~
pIIIIi;IiIn. 1IIlb.,..,-.a.
a-an.. lhdIII. -1IIJiIl'fft III
liIt.
VN u. Ni5IIiIt k.. n"'lS
mIIiR --..
CIIIIlPI'ia.
YlUilft.
hi _ ......
-.....
iIl .. ,.MeIIa
ftIIM ..

_5:$01$

1571
1425

575

TllIocom. Equipment (17) __


TllIocom. Sorvicos (25) __
TllIliIo (15)
TIdl (9)
Tn & ROObor (II)
rollacm (10) _.
ToioIriIJs.(:osmoli:s (11)
T~
l42l
WaIBr Ufiily (75)
(II) __

In 1hrft. parD: 'Ibb .Is PIU1.J. the SlODJDary & lnde:IL Part z Is s.... cthm .. OpInIDII. Part: 3 ... R... .IDp .. R.pmts.
PublistMtd weekly by VALUE UNE PUBUSIflNG. INC. 220 Eat Qnd sn.t, New York, N.Y. 10017-sn1

Shoo (33)
S1ooIIGnn11) (91)
SIooI (1rUgrIIod) (141 __

_M

/13)

---=

LVID. No. 39
fOR M'f URalS

...,

.................

..

DR

aa-tI

..a.

PaJ"t ]

CCCCA:tUE LINE

THE

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-10
Page 5 of 13
File at the front 01 the

Summary

Ratings

&

Investment Survey'

& Repor1s

binder. last week's


Summary

Index

& Index

should be removed.

April 25, 2003


TABLE OF SUMMARY

Summary & Index


Page Number

& INDEX CONTENTS

Industries, in alphabetical order ........................................................................................................................


1
Stocks, in alphabetical
order
2-23
Noteworthy
Rank Changes
24

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
24
Timely Slocks in TImely Industries
25-26
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
27-29
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
30-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential....
32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generalors
33
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Worst Performing
Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Widesl Discounts from Book Value
34

The Median

of Estimated

The Median

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocks under review

Marllel Low
921.01
15.4

26 Weeks
Ago
2.2%

M.rlIet H~h
4-16.0
20.9

Marllet low
9-21.01
2.2"

01 all 1700 sloct<s in the hr.:thesized


economic envirorvnenl 3 10 years hence

Marllel H~h
4-16-0
1.6%

26 Weeks
Ago
95%

Marllel Low
9-21.01
105%

Marllel ~h
4-16 2
55'"

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

afIer the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).

PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
_isi"ll
(73) .
.__ .. 1922 EduealionalSeM:es (2) _. __ ... llIli
(1'!q>'Cas.) (311 __ .._.515
AerospacelDeloose (14) '_"'_'_"_ 543 E_I
Equipment(71) .
.._ lD111 1_
(7)
__ __ ._ .. 2226
Air Transpolt(921 .
.....253 EIecIricUIiI. (Central) (91) .._ .._... 695 _
Co. (B) _.
._958
AppaIeI (A) ._.
.
. 1651 Eledlic Ulilly (East)(71) .__ .._.. 153 Invostment Co.(FoIIign)(15) ._._.369
f>dD & Truck(1&) _.
111 EIecIricU1i1iy (West) (79)
._1771 Machinery (n) _._._._.1331
Auto PIlls 141)
..__ . m Eledltlnics(AI .__ ._._._._
1024 Manu!.Housi9RV 1641
._.155&
Bank I21l
._.2101 Entertainmenl(25) _ ..__
.1161 Mariine (&5)
.2IG
Bank (canadian)(lB) .
.1&72 Enlel\ainmonlTlldl (63) __ ._ .. 1591 Medicalser.icos (17)
&21
BanIl(MidlIeoI)lJIj
&12 EmiIlIImtlllo1fl4) ._ ..__ ...
W
Msd:calSUppliesf5I_.
.1T1
IleveIllgoI_Ie)
(33) __
153!1 Filandal Svcs. (0. ) 141) _ .._._ 2133 Metal Fabriallilg (96)
5&4
_go
(Soft Drink)(24) .__ 1547 FoodProcessing(511 _.
1411 Metals & Mini1g (lliv.) (75) _ ... 1m
B_noIogy (121 __
.__ ...&72 FoodWholesa~"I42) __ .._..... 1531 Nabral Gas (IJis1rib.1
fUJ .__ .._.459
Buildilg MaI8rials (52)
151 FOl8ignEIecIronics(5&) __
1563 Natural Gas (Div.) (21) __
43T
cable IV (30) _. __ .._. __ .. 130 FllIBignTelecom.(19) __
.771 Newspaper (44) _. __
.__ 1901
canadianEnergy(34) __
.421 FumIHomeFurnishings19G) _._.194
lllIice Equip/Sllpllies (201 __ ._1136
cement & Aggrega1es(!II) _. __ 117 GIllCeIY(59)
.
1511 0i1i0Id Sw:IIElI"l>. (67)
1942
01 ..... 1(Ilasi:) (94) ._.
1231 Hea_,nlnnnaliln
(47) _._._ &&0 Paclagk1Q& ConIailer (50) .. 922
O1emi:al(Oiversilied) (15) .._._._1964 Home Applance(21) ...._ ...__._ 1\7 Paper/FoIesIProduds (ID) _.._ ... 9D5
O1..... IISpeciaIy) (40) _._ .._.471 _ilg
11)_._
.._._ _ 867 PotroleumllrU!iralsd) f3ll)
405
Coal (77)
._ 521 HoIeIGamilg 137) ..__ ..
1877 Petroleum(PlOOucing)(21) _ .. 1931
ComputerslPeripherals
(351 __... 110& Househokl PIllcfucts 149) __ .._ !l39 Phannacy -14)
.._.._._.._ 71&
CompOO!lSolbi1lrelS'" (22) .- 2171 'Hullllll R_
(17) _....
1m
Poloer(97)
._....__ ._ ..
lliversl1iedCo. (69) __ .__ . 1377 IndustrialSeMces (71) __ . ... 3ZI 'Predous M_ (571 _.
1219
'Drug (91
.__
._.1246 Information Servials(I) ...
. 313 Precisiln InsIrumenl (55) _.
124
E-Comrnert8(101 _._,,
._ 1434 'Insurance (LIe) (&2) .....
... 1205 Publishing(76) .
._._ .. 18

Ins""""'"

Price

85%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL


Numeral in parenthesis

Median

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

2.2%

15.4

The Estimated

of Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS

of al stocks with earnings

26 Weeks
Ago
15.3

Stocks with lowest PIEs


Siocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Retums Earned on Total Capital
Bargain Basernent Siocks
UntImely Slocks (5 lor Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

PAGE
Rakoad 145) ..._ ...._._
_ 211
RUT. (53) _.
._._ _.1111
Reaeation (32) __ ..__ ._ .. 1141
Restaullllll (2&)
.. ._. 29&
Re1ai 8ulding Supply(13)
. Al
RetaiiSpeciaI lines) (51) __
171&
RetaI Store (74) _'_'_"
__ 1&11
5eaJriIios Brokerage(U) __
1424
SillialndLdlrf131 _.
1152
Semiccnlludcr Equip(95)
1091
Shoo(11)
.__ .1193
SIBol (General) (93) _. __ ...._._ 575
S18eI (In1llQra1Ild)
(11)
1414
T-.n.
Equi,oment136)_. __ 745
T-.n.
5eMcos 123) .
.
T_
(66J
._ ..__ 1&&5
*TlIriIl131 ",
,__ ,_,_,,_ 1\&'1
& Rubber(12)
._ ..._._.111
Tabacallll)
._. 1579
T~elics
(12) _ ..__ .119
Truckilg (54)
..__ ..._._ .. 268
WaterUtiily I4'l _._..
._ 1420
WueIess_ng
(B&) ._ .._... 512

no

rro

'Re'liewed in this

weeI<.

issue.

In three plll"b: 11I1sIs Part I, U. s........ ry Index. Part 2 Is Selectlon Oplnl.... Part 31Is Ratlnp.
Reporta. Volume LVIn. No.
Publish8c:l WlII8k.1yby VALUE UNE PUBLISHING. INC. 220 East 42nd 5trMt, New York, N.Y. '0011-5891
Z'Cm.\'IIItLilr 1'IIiIIIo ....
OIIIS5lONS 1011.

~ MIIigle.-..el.f
.....
lIIIiIlis
TIIiI peIcIliIn iI ..,
ill tEll tIIh::rIIII'

.. -Uln;J .,.

b -.oYIMI.ft.

pIiIIlIllll

-..c.~

ilE. Kb 115n.-..

......

-.u

_en

......

c.. ~l

,_I&d.J'"

II ......

,
~

_.--Ill

iIhOtIs
~

II

II.

st.

_il.prllriOed ..... _lllinllqU!d.THI:


f'leUSHERIS IIOTIl[SPOl5IIU.IORNR fRRORSOR
N. III II-'
pIliblian.., ""
II5IIil, _Ill! II ~
iI ., pi*d. *IICIIIic II ..........
Ill
.-pIapn III\II. LN.1IIc. 01'Nuf, lft ~
IlL. IS "II m alliin
~
..
...,.
la:.u
ililispuliblim ....... 1lIJeiI-...CM5I-.lJlfM

IIlfIi:e.

,.adIcIIL

a.r.!II ~

.1ll"'irldiriIIIII.~

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-10
Page 6 of 13

File at the front or the

'ALUE LINE

THE

Ra6ngs & Reports


binder. last
SummlllY

Investment Survey'

should

week.'s
& Indltx

be removed.

March 28, 2003


Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

Industries, in alphabetical order


_.......................................................................
1
Stocks, in alphabetical
order ..............................................................
2-23
Noteworthy
Rank Changes
............................
.............. 24-25

SCREENS
Stocks with Lowest PIEs ........
Stocks with Highest PIEs .....
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
.
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capital ..
Bargain Basement Slocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
....
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks ....

Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank ................. 24


TImely Stocks in TImely Industries
....... 25-26
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
.. 27-29
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety) .. 30-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Slocks with Highest 3- 10 5-year Price Potentia'
.. 32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
...... 33
Best Performing Slocks Iasl13 Weeks
....... 33
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Widest Discounts from Book Value ........ 34

The Median

of Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend
paying stocks under review

of aD stocks with earnings

economic environment 3 to

Markel Low
9-21-01
15.4

26 Weeks
Ago
2.0%

Market H~h
4--16-0
20.9

Markel Low
9-21-01
2.2%

years hence

95%

2.3%

14.9
26 Weeks
Ago
15.9

The Estimated Median Price


APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 slocks in the h~sized

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

Market High
4--16-02
1.6%

26 Week.
Ago
90%

Markel Low
9-21-01
105%

Markel~h
4-16 2
55%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the indlistry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
Advertising(74) __ .._. __
1m
EducationalServices(2) _._
15111"Insurance (PItJlWCes.)
(211 ._ ...... 515 Rairoad \45)
__
2U
"AeraspaceJOelonseI85)__ ._ _ 543 Eled.ricalEquipment(73)
.. 1001 1I1temeI(16)
._. __
Z22& R.EJ.T.(55) _.
.1177
M Transport(931 _ ...__._ _ 253 Eled.ricUlil (central) (911
695 1,,_
Co. (6) .
.9A
Reaeation (52)
.1141
Apparel (78) _.
__ ...1651 EIed.ricUtiily (East) (13) __ ._ .153
Co.(FoIeign)(21) _ ....369 ReslaulOlll(24)
.296
AJJlJ & Truck (17) _ _. __
._.101 EIed.ricUtiliy (West) (75) __ .1776 Machinery (811 __

1331 Relai Bulding Supply(13) __


Al
A!Ao
(51)

EIed.IOIlics(87)
1023 Manuf. Haosng,llV (62)
1556 Relai (SpociaIl.inIIs)III)
1716
BanI< (26)
2111 Enlerlainment(27) _ .__
1111 Mariine \43) __
2U ReIal5lDnl (76)
1671
Bank (cana<fen)(19) _._._ _1572 ErfellainmentToetl(64) __
1599 "Medical_
(11) .__
.621 5ecuritieS
\46) __
142.4
"Bri: (MidwU) (37) __ __ .612 Envionmenlal (14)
351 MedicalSuppliesf5) _. __
177 Somicondul:tor 1M)
1051
_go (_Ie) (II) _._._
Filancia!S""- (0;'.) 1481__
2133 "Molal Fabricati1g (95)
._ 5M __
Equip(91) .1306, ,.
Beverage (SaIl Drink)(7) __ . 1547 FoodProcessing(541
1411 Mola~ & Minilg(DiY.) (16) __ .122.5 Shoe(11)
. 1693
"Bidechnology (11) __ ._ ..__ m FoodWholesalers(72) _. __ ._ 1533 NaturalGas (Ilis1rib.) \44) __ .__ 459 "S18oI (GenelaQ (90)
575
Bui'tJing_
(10)
151 FOI8ignEIeclrDnics(51) __
1513 Naill"" Gas (DiY.)(35) __
.411 S180I(/IQgrIUd) (85) __
NN
cable TV (IB)
__129 FomignTelecom.(34)
__ 7711 Newspaper (25) __
._ 19111 Telecom.Equijlment(33) __
.744
canadianEnergy(36J _._._
.. 428 FumniomeFurnishingslAl __ .IM
llIIial EquiplSuppies(20) __
1134 Telecom._
f3G)
720
cemonl & Aggrogalss (97) __ .187 Gmcery (71)
1518 0ifi0Id SVcsIEqu". (71) _ _.1942 TOlIIHe\81)
1185
Chemi:al(Bas~l (!I2)
1235 "Healhcare Infoonaliln (39) __ .860 Packaging& Comainer \41) _. __ m Thrill (3)

1111
Chemal(OiveIsifild) (69) _ _ 1964 HomeAppiance (29)
117 PaperIFoIllSlPmducls (79) __ ._ 9115 Tn & Ruliber(67) _.
111
Olemal (Specialy) 142) _ .._.471 Homebuikling(1)
.. 167 P_um
(IntegraIed)(5111 405 Tobacal tll)
._1519
Coal (82)
521 HoleI'Gaming(31) -_1152,
1877 P_""
(Pmd~)
(22) _.1831
T_1Ili:>
1121_._111
Compul8rslPeriphera~(32) ._._ 1184 Ho.... hokI Products(53) _"_'"
939 Pharmacy -\4)
._785 Trucking1311
.268
Comper SalIwaJe/Slcs (23) __. 2171 HumanResources(14) __ ._ 1281 Power(96)
_. __
.
Water UIiily \47) __
1428
DiYersiliedco. (59) ._ _._
1377 Induslrialservices 1491
.327 PI8CiousMelais(63) _.
1218 WI!1IIessNelwOIiing (77)
.512
Orug (15)
... 1143 Information SOlYices(91
383 Plecisi:ln InstnInent (57) __
124
E-<:anmerte II)
.._ 1434 InslJIance(lie) 15iJ _. __ I2IM Pubiisllilg (ID) - ....
.__ ._ 1895
"_d
in this week's issue.

111_

Pa.,.

_rage

,m

In three panr.11ds is Part I, thle Summary.

Indd:. Part 2 Is Selec:t.lon Oplnlon. Put 3 b Ratlnp 6 Reports. VolUlllleLVIII. No. 30.
Published weellly by VALUE UNE PUBUSHNG, tHe. 220 East 42nd StrMI, New York., N.Y. 10017-5891

C ZOID. v.-lft ~
IrE.
OIISSOCSHtREII. T" ~
9I"~

1I'_t*g .. ~.
LilL lnt.1Cb n~

.. wIiltI \'1M

AI rb ...... I. flQlall ................


..

Md;Y

b Nell iIftJIleI"I -.

",lIbliIn.-.aw ~
__ ., .. Ulll:1J ....

1fr

NIl"

IIdnId II lie

pIIII''' ....

.1d d.,....
_~

THE PUIlISHEIIS MJT RE5POIIl5lll.'f fOR NtI ERRORS OR


1'I'MIII. _Ill
~
ill .., ,....,
..
otkm.~.
~d
".I..il&.k .'MR"'~k..I!"'n~
__
~
1ftiaJ~
~
.--il
....... ~ 1Ini'I1lD*" c~d"
"' ....
...,.
"1JI~.lDgift
--..~
IdIia..
~

-.aJI-aL

__

..

is

d lis

..,

'"

Part]

ALUE LINE

Summary

Investment Survey

Index

Oi

THE

Docket No. P~3-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-10
Page 7 of 13
File 'at Ille tront of the
Ratmgs

& Reports

binder. Last week's


Summary &. Index

&

should be removed.

February Z8, Z003


TABLE OF SUMMARY
Industries, in alphabetical order
Stocks, in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

& INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

.................................................................................................................

1
2-23
24-25

SCREENS
Stocks with lowest PIEs
Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Slacks with Highesl 3- to 5-yaar Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capital....................
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 lor Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utilily Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank ................. 24


TImely Stocks in Timely Industries
25-26
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 lor Performance)
27-29
Conservative
Slacks (1 & 2 lor Salely)
30-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential
... 32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
33
Best Performing SlaCks last 13 Weeks
33
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Widest Discounts from Book Value
.. 34

01 Estimated
DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend

The Median of Estimated

The Median

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of aU stocks with earnings

paying stocks under review

26 Weeks
Ago
17.2

Market low
9-21-01
15.4

Markel H~h
4-16-0
20.9

ecoromic environment 3 to

26 Weeks
Ago
1.9%

Markel low
9-21-01
2.2%

Market H~h
4-16-0
1.6%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL

Markel low
9-21-01
105%

Markel H!8:h
4-16 2
55%

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

PAGE
PAGE
Edueational5ervi:es (1) _
151& Insurance (Pmp'Cas.) {34)
51&
Electri:al Equipmenl(84) ...__ loot .In!smel (16)
.._
2226
ElectriclJIiI.ICenlral) (17)
.._. 695 Irr.estmenICo. 111) _.
._ 958
ElectricUtilly lEast)(10) .._
154 1nves1ment Co.(Foreign)(IZ) __.._ 361
ElectricIJIiIiy (West) (15) _._ 1771 Machillllr)' (H) __ .
._.... 1331
Electltlllics(90) _._
.._ .. _ 1023 MMuf. Housilgi1lV (65) __ ._. 1556
EnlerlaiMllllll(15) _._._
... 11&1 Mariine (71)
.__ .210
En1eIIaiMMOlt
Toch(79)
._1591 __
(I)
..._
EnYimmental (T) _ .....
._ 357 Modica! Supp/jes (5) __ ._. __ .._ 177
"Fllandol Svcs.(O. ) (49) _ ........2133 MolalFabricatiIg(15) __ ......_... 51&
FoodProcessing(76) _ ... ._.1411 MSa~ & MiniIg (Iliv.) (91)
.. 1225
FoodWholesalers 141) _._..__.... 1533 NatunllGas (iJislrill.) 142) _ ......._ 459
Fcnign EledJmics(59)
1563 Nalllral Gas (Iliv.) (39) _ ..__ 437
Fcnign Telecom.(31) ..
.
Newspaper (II) .
._19011
Funvlillllll Fumilihingo(5&) _ .... 194 Office Eq~~uppies lU)
1134
GIllceIy (75)
...._. __.. 1511 0lIi0Id SvcsIEqui>-lIJ)
.... 1942
Healhcar1llnllllmalim 146) _ ...... 1611 Packagilg& ConIailer (31)
923
HomeAppiance (14) ..._ .._ .._ .. 117 PaperIFoI1lSt P_
(68) _ .......905
Homebui~iIg(1)
.._ _
867 P_um
(lflIBgrat8lI)(19)
405
HolBI'Gamilg{29/
1152,1177 ~um(Prod..,;ng)(22I
__ lnl
HouseholdProducIs(31) _.._ _.. 939 Pharmacy _(13)
_ .._..__ .. 715
HumanR_
(77) .._
1211 Power(91)
.
_.
(501
.3Z1 PreciousMelais(16) _._ ..__ ... 1211
InIDnna1ion _
(9) ._ .._ .. 313 Precisiln InsIrumeIt (53) _ _.__ 124
Insurence(lie) (55) __ ..__ .._ 1284 Publishing (11) _-._
_ 1195

1_1_

(next 12 months).
PAGE
Raimad (43)

__ 211
RUT. (51) ._ ..__ .._.._ .... 1177
Re_(52)
_.
._ 1841
Raslauranl(11) _
.__ Z96
R8Ial Bulding SuppIJ(2')
III
Relal (special Lines) (30) _. _.1711
Retai Store (II)
1171
Socu1iies B!OIr.erage (57)
1424
5emil:llnductr (14)
._ ... 1051
5emicllnducll< Equip(11) .I:1t1li,I.
StollZl) __
.
.__ .1193
S1IIoIIGenoraI) (12) __
576
S1IIoI (1nIsgral8d) (71)
1414
Telacom.Equipment(45)
744
7e1acom.5ervices (35)
.__
7111iJef/2)
.1665
Thrill (3)
.__ 1111
fro & Rubbor(44)
111
Tobaca>(64) ..
1m
ToielriosIC<Jsmoli<:s16/
111
Truckilg (23) ....__.__
.
261
Water Uliity (13)
..
.1420
Wireless _"I
(II) __
513

no

"Re.-d

in this

In tIln!I! parU:: Thill b: P_rc I, the SumlDafJ' lodes. Part Z Is Selecdan a Opinion. Part 3 Is RatJnp Repan-. VoIu...

VIIIr'"

tHe. 220 East

Published weekly by VAlUE UNE PUBlISHING,

ZlID.
NIIsIiIIg. II. M 1igle.1ItSmIlI. fK1ml .....
i!!o ~
~
OIISS1011S
HUlElt nil,..... ii ~
III nd'I tultsatIO -. ~l
geMQIiIg II --..".
.....
IIIIl:*-iI: jllIIbIIan.lMice. plIdIl1 ~
Ia 1IIil:II-. Lilt. K.1Cb
_1lIlICb .... ~ -.II

niR~"''''

_UlI

......
i'IInl-.

years hence

90%
26 Weeks
Ago
80%

Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance


PAGE
Advertisingf/I) __ .
.._.1922
AerospllCOlllefense (62) __ ._ 543
M Transpoll(n)
.._._._ 253
Apparel(63) .._. __
.__ 1651
fdD & TnD<(II) __
._.
. 101
Auto Parts(51)
"Bank (27J
.2101
Bank(canadian) II7l __
1572
Bank(Midwosl)(33)
.613
Bev... ge IAk:ohoie)(ID) __
1m
Beverage(Sdllllinll) 14) __
1547
B_noIogy
f/4) .
172
BuiklingMaIBria~ (54)
151
cabIB TV (73)
.__ 129
Cenadian Energy(32)
.421
Cemenl &AQgregaIes (IIi) __
N7
Chemi:al (Bas;') (92) __
. 1235
Oiemi:allllivlllSiIiod) (60)
.. 1964
Oiemi:al (Specialy)(31) _._
471
CoaJ{47l __ .
.
.52!I
ComjM8r!IP.riphora~ (40) __ 1104
"Compular Sdlwa",s..:s (26) ._.2171
lliversilio<lCo. (41)
1377
Drug (24)
.. 1243
E-CoIM1erce(21)
1434

The Estimated Median Price


APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 stocks in the h~thesiZed

2.3%

15.0

35
35
36
36
37
37
3B
3B
39

42ncl SInlet, N..

_'s issue.

Lvm. No. 21.

York, N.Y. 10017-5891

II1IID ~
...............
-J tN. THE P\B.ISHER IS IKJT R5POI!iB.E fOR lIlT ERRORS OR
.,."
1tIdd..s.1ti'*I. .... 'II' ~
.. .,.
......
II*rbIit'II''''
'II'-.1lll
_I.-.. k.. lMQ ... ~
__
ft amil ~
~.
1IlIrMy I~
II _1IdM iRliI. ~
...
_ftIltll:.1d. nrl5hRd nll ...... 1lIIIIJ II .-IIitI ... giRilIIiriIaIl--..1OIic&.
IIiId:nIl

CI ~.

br-

fig

'M

ft'"

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-10
Page 8 of 13

Part 1

File at the front of the

Summary

Ratings & Reports


binder. La~t week's
Summary & Index

&

Investment Survey

Index

should

be felTlOYed.

January 31, 2003


TABLE OF SUMMARY

Summary & Index


Page Number

& INDEX CONTENTS

~~E:~~:~~:l~t~~:~~~:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::~t~~
SCREENS
Industrtes, in order of Timeliness Rank .............. 24
Timely Sloct<s in Timely Induslries
25-26
Timely Stoct<s (1 & 2 for Performance)
27-29
Conservative Slacks (1 & 2 ror Sarety) ............ 3ll-31
Highesl Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Stocks wilh Highesl 3- 10 5-year Prtce Polenlia' ... 32
Biggest "Fllle Flow" Cash Generators ................. 33
Best Performing Slocks last 13 Weeks ................ 33
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks .......... 33
Widest Discounts from Book Value
34

Stocks wilh Lowest PIEs .......................


Stocks wilh Highest PIEs
Stocks wilh Highesl Annual Total Retums .......
Slacks wilh Highest 3- fa 5-year Dividend Yield .
High Retums Eamed on Total Capital
Bargain Basement Stoct<s
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance) ..............
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Stoct<s .........................

36
36

37
37
38
38

39

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

The Estimated Median Price

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

of al slocks with earnings

of aU1700 slocks in !he h~!hesized


economic environment 3 to years hence

paying stocks under review

80%

2.1%

15.6

35
35

26 Weeks Market Low Market H~h


4-16-0
&-21-01
Ago
20.9
15.4
15.8

26 Week.

26 Weeks Markel Low Market High


4-16-02
&-21-01
Ago
2.2%
1.6%
2.0%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL

Market Low

9-21-01
105%

Ago

95''''

Advertisi~ 114)
._..._._
1923
Ae"""a_
.. (421 ._._ .._.543
Air Transport(90) _._ ..
253
Apparel (60) __ .
.
t651
Auto & Truck125) __ ._ ..__ 101
Auto Parts (43) __
.7'11

PAGE

Educa1ionaIServi:es 16) _._._ .. tlM


EIel1ric:aI Equipment 111) _ .._ IDOl

4-16 2
55%

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance


PAGE

Market H!9:h

(next 12 months).

PAGE
PAGE
Insun",,,e(Prop'Cas.)
121) _ ..... IM Ralroad (47)
lII
hume! (9)
.
._.. 2225 R.E.IJ. (511
tl77
lnveslmOllt Co.II~) _ ...__ . 951 ~
(41)
1141
I_Ill
Co.(Foreign)124) ..._... 3611 RaSlaulB1lI (tl)
.296
'MachineIy 117) _ .._.
..__ .._1331 Ralal Buldirg Supply 11Z)
111
ManuI. t-IousiIg,llV (301
.. t556 Rotal (Speciallilesl (19) __ 1m
Mariine /7t) __ .__ ._. __
210 RetaI SIlllll (4')
1171
. Medical SeMces
&2lI ._
8rok1rage (64) __
1424
Medical Supplies /7
._177
~
1") __
tlSt
Motal Fabrioali1D (16) __ .
.564
_
Eqlip (17) .131&,tD9D
Motals & Mini19 (Iliv.) IBI) __ . 1225 Shoo It I)
. 1694
NatulBl Gas (DistJib.) (55) __ ._.459
Steel (Gene<aI) /75) __
._ 511
Natural Gas (Iliv.) (63) __ ._._ 43T SteeI (Integ_JIM) __
I~I~
Newspaper(22) __._.. _._1909
TeIecom.E~(")
144
0Ir<e Equiluppiies /23) .
1134 Telecom.S<ni:es (21) __
7211

EIol1riclJIiL (ContraI)l92) .
195
Elel1riclItilly (Eas1) (S9) __ .._.154
EIol1riclItiiiy (WesQ 116) ._ .._1775
EiedIIlnics (94)
._ 1123
BanI< (27)
.2101 Entertainment(39)
. till
Bank (ee.adSn) (611 __
1572 E_ment
Tech (It I
1511
Bank l~
(35)
.613 Envionmenta1113)
.357
Beverage (_Ie) (15)
1533 Filandal5=
(00.) (41) _. __ 2133
Beverage ISdi Drink) 15) _ .._. 1541 Food Processing 161) _.
1411
Bioted1noIogy (56)
. m Food Wholesalers /71) _.
t53!
BLikliIg _
(31) __
1St Fcnign Eledranics (65) __
1563
eebIBlV/73)
.
.. 12I Fcnign Telecom.(53) .
rn
eenadian EneIDY(33)
~2I FurrvMome FOOlishi'll' (45) _.191
eement & AggIogaIBs (13)
. lIT Grocery/74) _._.
1511 0iieId S<OSIEquip.(13) _._._ ... IM3
Chemk:aIIBast) (S5)
.. 1235 Healhca .. lnfoonaliln 154)

PackagiIg & CarUm (34)


923
Chemk:al (llivelsilied) (57) __ ._ t965 Home Appianc:e (II)
... III
PaperlForestP_
/71) __ ... 905
Chemk:alISpecialy) (40)
411 Homebui~i1g II)
.__ 161 PetroIeOOl(lntegratBdJlU)
_._._ ~
Coal (10) __ ._._
..__ ..... 529 HoteVGamilg 120) _._.1152, IITI Petroleum (PIOduc:i~) (37) _._.1932
ComplMrslPeripherao (44) _._.1104 Househokl PlOducts (36) ..__ ._ 939 Phannacy _II)
_ ..__._. lIS
CompulBr SoftwaIlllSvcs (32) __ 2tT1 Human Resoun:es /77J .
1111 Power (II)
..
.m
Di-.ersilied Co. (41)
1m
IndustJill Services (31)
:m _
Metals (52) _._. __ . 1211
Drug (261 .
.__
. 1243 Infnrmation Services (10) __ .._ 313 Precisiln Ins1nInent 169) __ .__ 124
*E-eommerce 117) __
1434 nurara {Lie)(61)
.__ 1214 Publishing(62)
.. 1896

(41'--'-'-

T_

/721

ThriIll2l

rre & Rubber(51)


Tobacall5J)
TlIIetrie8ICosme
(3) __

TruckiIg l29)
Z6I
Wa1er UliiIy /7')
.._ 1420
WinllllSS Networkirll /71) __
513
-Reviewed in lh5 west's issue.

MO_

In lhrft paru: Th1s Is P.rt I, the Sumlnllry a Indez., Put Z Is Selection a OplnJon. Part 3 Is Ratlnp a Reporu. VGlu..
Published wvekly by VALUE LINE PUBUSHING.
iIlIIJ. VIM' lilt F'lMsI*I}
OIISSIllNS Hf1lE. TIm

lilt.

AI 1911' ......
r~
ilAi:I)' b n::II..-r'l

is.
raKa._~l
iInQ.,....:L
1llIiIGI,.7 _1IDtb ..... t

~. -~-r""'.~ ~

IItaI VllulLiIt. .. IdI"

......

INC. 220 Eat 42nd

IldneIIIID lie ........


is fII'D"'Ud
'"
iii. plIIIbIilII.., H
II _lht. tIt.. Mr
i111i5

s.--.

N_

-'*'

II.,

..
-=- .., ...,.,.,Ill.~.....-.g""'''''''
U1r"""'
'- "
IlQCn

DII~

1165
lilt
._111
. tm
.111

.__

LVID,No. ZZ

York, N.V. 10017-5891


PWl.JSHER IS lICITRESPCIlSIl

JH[

"".IItI..., ...

1ftCiI
III'
K.. n
-=--d ft ......

c.IIiR

iI .,

~
Ra.WIIiB.

fOR IIlf ERRORS ow

....-::
Ill'

PI

..

.....,.~

~...a.

Docket No. P-03-4


WorkpaDer # 1 to FJH-10
Page 9 of 13

Pari J

File at the front at the

Summary

THE

Ratings
binder.

&

Investment Survey

Summary & Index


should be removed.

Index
------

& Reports
Last week's

December

27, 2002

Summary & Index


Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

Industries, in alphabetical order ......................................................................................................................


1
Slacks, in alphabetical order
2-23
Noteworthy Rank Changes
24-25

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeijness Rank
24
TImely Stocks in TImely Industries
2!>-26
TImely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
27-29
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
3G-31
Hi9hest Dividend Yielding Slacks
32
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential....
32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
33
Besl Performing Stocks lasl 13 Weeks
33
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Widest Discounts from Book Value
34

Siocks with lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual T alai Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capital
Bargain Basemenl Stocks ...................................
Untimely Stocks (5 lor Performance)
Highesl Dividend Yielding NOrHJtilily Slacks
Highest Growth Stocks

39

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

The Estimated Median Price

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

paying stocks under review

of all 1700 stocks in the hypothesized


economic environment 3 to 5 years hence

2.1%

15.6
26 Weeks Marl<elLow
9-21-01
Ago
15.4
18.5

26 Weeks Ma",et Low


Ago
9-21-01
1.7%
2.2%

Ma",el High

4-16-02
20.9

80%
Marl<el High

4-16-02
1.6%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL


Numeral in parenlhesis

26 Weeks
Ago
65%

s.cs.

PAGE
"!nsuranco (Pmp'Cas.) (22) __
. SM
_111)
._. __ .
..._ .... ZZ25
I_Ill
Co. (21) _ ... _.
._. 951
kMostment Co~Fomign) (24) _ .._.368
Machinery lI9)
._..._._1331
Manu!. HCIlJSi9RV (16) __ ..._I5S6
Marline lI3)
.
... zao

"Med'IC3I_

Marl<el Low Marl<el High


9-21-Of
4-16-02
105%
55%

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

after Ihe induslry is rank for probable performance

PAGE
PAGE
Advertising (89) _._._ .._.._.._.1923
Educational5eri<es (6) ..
.. ISM
"AerospacoJDel!nse\4Z)
"_"_"
543 Eleclrical Equipment I9Z) ._._ .... 1001
Air Transpoll1911 _.
.._,,_ 253 Eledric LliI./CMI7aI) (93) ._.
695
Apparel (43) __ ..... __ ._... _ ..__ 1651 Eledric utilly lEast) (86) .
..._154
AWl'TIIICk (33)
._.111
E_
UIiIIy (West) (83) ._._._.1775
Auto Parts f40) _.
.797 Eledn>nics (94) _. __
... _ 1m
Bank (17) __ .__
.__ ". ZIDI Enterlainment (37)
.. 1861
B.nIl (Canadian) liD) _. __ .1572 Entertainmonl Tech liS) ..__ .1599
"BanI< (Midwesl) (3Z) _._._"
613 EnYionmentai (21) _.
-go (_Ie)lI)
._ 1m
Fi1ancial
(OW.) (39)
. 2133
-go ISoft Drink} (2) __ . 1547 Food Pl1lC8Sliing(31)

1411
"BOochnDIogy (O)
67Z Food Wholesalers lIZ)
.__ 1533
Buikli-Q MaleriaIs (3D)
851 Foreign EIedmnics (74) __
1563
Cable lV (II)
829 Foreign ToIeo:lm.lIl}
Canadian Ene'llY (31)
421 Fumfrlome FumilIIiIIgs (35) __ .. 194
Call1Wlt' AggIogaIBs lIl) __ ._ U7
Grocery (15) __ ..
1511
Cham"" (Ilasi:) (17)
. 1236 "Healhcare Inf<rmmm (59) _._._ 66lI
ClIomica1IDiv_1
(57)
1915 Home Appl.nee (12) __
._117
Chemical (Specialy) lZ9) _. __
471 Homeb~~i-Q (5)
.. _167
Coal fI2)
5Z9 HoIeKlamilg 114) _._._
.. 1171
ComputerslPe~
(64) _._ .. 1105 Household PIllducIs (21) _ .._.__ 13!
Computer SoftwarelS1ICS (55) .._ 2171 Human Rosooll:eS lI6) _._.
1291
DiYeIsified Co. \45)
. 1377 Industrial SeMc:es 144)
3Z7
Drug (36)
._.1244
Information _
(ID) _. __ ... 313
E-Commen:e (54) _.
" 1435 Insurance (L1e) (H) __ .._.._1215

38

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of al stocks with earnings

35
35
36
36
37
37
38

(I) _. __ ._.629

Medical Supplies (I) _,,_._.


177
"Molal Fabricalilg 195)
._. 561
_~
, Minilg (Div.) (ID) _ ... 1226
Natural Gas (Dislrib.}(60) _._._.459
NaI1lal Gas (DiY.) fll)
437
_paper (Z3)
._._ ItII!I
0IIice EquiplSuppIies (25) __
1135
0i1i0Id SYcsIEquip. (e9)
._ 1M3
Paciagilg & CorUi1or (Z6J ._._ .. 9Z3
PaperlForest ProducIs (17) __ ..... 905
P_
... (Integrated) (H) __ .._.405
P_um
(PIlXIu<ing)(46) _.1932
Pharmacy Sorvials (3) __ '_"_"_" 785
Power (91) _.
._.. m
Precious M_ (52)
. 1219
Predsion InstrumenI (II)
._.124
P.-,;ng
(51) __ ._. __ ._._ 1196

(next 12 months).

PAGE
Raiload \47)
._..__ 2U
R.EJ.T. (51) _.
1111
~
(34)
... 1141
RostaulBllt (15) _ ..
Z96
Retai Bukq SuWiY (13)
.8111
Rs1ai (Special Unos) (19) __
1m
Retai SlOII! (41)
1671
5eaJrities 8rotarago (II) __
1425
Semiconductor (IIi)
1852
SemiclJnducIDr Equip (97) __
1191
Shoe (II)
.11!I4
"S\BOI (General) (12)
.671
S1eaI (IntograIod) \49) __
1414
ToIeo:lm. Equipment (15)
.744
ToIeo:lm. _\41)
__
.72D
T_
(50)
1115
T1IriiI (I)
1161
Tn' Rubber (51) _.
III
Tobaco> (67)
._Irn
ToieIJes/Caimlllics \4) __
III
Tnx:kiIg (27)
._. __ ZA
Wa1llr UliiIy (53) _.
". 142lI
WueIess NnrIing (14)
513
"_

kith;' week~issue.

In three plll'Q:'I1tls .. P.rt t, the Swnmary a Indo. Part Z Is Selection&; Opinion. Pm-t:S .. btlnp.
Reporta. VoIulDIeLVIll, ND.J7.
Published .... kIy by VALUE UNE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 East 42nc1 Street, New Yen. N.Y. 10017--5891

ilIIlZ."

Lilt ~

..

0II'SSI0fIS HEim. rM,.aIiI!


.......
_teli1g." JIII*d
b lItD VIIIN! IiIL n..1dI.

AI ..........
a""
01 ~

r........
III ,Id! ~'5
fllllIIIt:*I. MI'Ii2

n~"'''J''

iI. ........

~
III

~l""'"

prDdIcl

u. _

...

~G1

......

~ ......
-.I r... ~
.....
_..-s ....,... THE f't8..JSHER IS IJT RSI"OIf5eI..E fOll.IIIlf IRRORS tit
fifD pIlItlliI.""'''' tI ~
mm:L.C .....a.1
..,111
III
L-.IIE:. CI -.1..- ~
... n .. K ~
iIR5lMd ~.
__
"'YJ I~
l8til5lwdd lie ~d
1lI). III..-IIII~
......
ill-.., IfIU.

lIitdDrs IJ I!IIIIf*l!ns
r-..lIId iI

i1.,- ..... **'* .........

n'"'*'"

Docket No. P-D3-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-10
Page 10 of 13
Part I

ALUE LINE

Summary

Investment Survey-

Index

~~

File etlheftont 01the


R.,.,ps & Ropom

&

_.

Last_.
Summary & Index

shoUdborwnovOCl.

November 29, 2002


TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS
Industries. in alphabetical

Summary & Index


Page Number

ortler

~=rJ,:~~~~=r
..::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::"2t~
SCREENS
Industries, In orde, of TImeliness Rani<
,......... 24
'Timely Stocks in 'Timely Industries
25-26
'Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Periormancel
27-29
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Sefely
30-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Stocks wIlh Hlllhest 3- to ~'
Price Potential....
32
BIggest "Free FloW" Cash enerators
33
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Worst Perfonnlng Stocks Ia&1 13 Weeks
33
WideSt Discounts from Book Value
34

The Median of Estimated


PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

paying slocks under review

Marl<etlDW

"'"

26Weeka

Mar1<el~

4-1
20.11

8-21~
15.4

20.5

800/0

2.10/0

16.1
26WHka

"'"

Marl<et Low

t-21~

26 Weeks

Marl<et~h

2.2%

1.6%

36
36
37
37
38
38
39

The Estimated Median Price


APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of a11700 stodes in Ihe ~sized
eoonomic environmenl3 ID yealS hence

The Median of Estimated


DIVIDEND Y1EL~$
(next 12 months) of all iVldend

of aH stocks with earnings

35
35

Stocl<s with Lowest PIEs


Stocl<s wkh Highest PIEs
;
Stocl<s wIlh Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3-to 5-yee, Dividend YIeld
High Returns Earned on 'Total Caplel
Bargain Bssement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Penormance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utUIIy Stocks
Highest Growth Slock&
.

4-1
1.6%

Marl<et Low

t-21~
105%

"'"
60%

Marl<et~

4-1
55%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the indUStry is rank for probable perfonnance
PAGE

=&t;-----lm1127>
Ai'T/lIIIIlXlll(17) __
AjIpaJeIIQ

__

. --_.

NI1J PIrtI (31)


"Sri ~I)
Bant Cenodionl (II)

Idwoslli----'

IlMrIge

\.IICIllllIIC

a-ogo
~

(Sol MI 1(1)_1547

(7\ __

11')

BuIdilIIIeIBoi* j43l

s..-i

~
Uti (CImI)(
EJedIi: 1JIiIl'~{I31

_1511
iII.......~)
__
1111 -_(44)

I__.05

In_Ca.

(22)

I.

2133

1M ---

1411
1533
(71)__ I!IG

FIII\IIIT...... \I2l
Fum.ft1omoFIfIIisIqs (471
Groc:ory(5Il
Healll>call fllbrmnon (51)
Homo Appia"'" (15)
HomelllJIdillll2l
H<*!I'GamIlg (Ill
HouseIIc*I~
1141
Human R........
(741
Induslial SerIi:es (45) __
InlllITIlItionSerIi:es (121
IralllllllCl (lie) (71)

IN
.1511
112
117
117
1m

by VALUE

RtlllSIin

_.1141
215

P7I

l'lll

111
1717
1171

Ci

PotroIe<n

41

at .Pharmacy eM:es (4)


1210 . Poww (911 __ __ "
.321 PIICilusIleIeIs (511

l'IIcIBiln Instru_
.12I5Pubishilg (51)

ut40 PUBLISHNG.

ReslIImI
_
R 1IllIdilg Sil>PIr 1171
R (Spw!olliletl (24l __

Secu1ie18IomgIlI5I
_
1425
SernI:onob:b (II)
1152
MeIol F8hlk:olilg 1131
. m 8ernEonlU:b Cell Eq (17) __ 1111
& "'~
(llH.l~) ---- 1221
Shoe
_11M
NnnI GIS(DiriIIIl~
.
SlIII.
_.511
NelureI Goo (llIv.) \11
4SI SlIII
1_
1414
NowIpaper(2l)
1101 T
EMmed )
744
otli:e Eqlip & S~
(33) __ .11:15T
SeNDs n
721
01ftekl~t--1143
T
1115
PIlialliIlI & Ca1lIIler (21 -m TbII ( _ (51)
11t1
Paper IF ... Ptodudl
.IDS 1h &
. _ 111
Pe1zoIoIlll~
.40S T~
1571

311

.1132

715

(H)
..

1He. 220 e-l42Td

so-. _

(II __

T=~q

.101

W'......
-~

111

(23) __ 217

m w.- UIay

121.
124

In da'ee puu: 1bII II Part J. die SWlllftuy Inda. Pwc E Is 5-' -n m .. 0pInI.~ Part S iI: Ratio...
_

2fT
__ 1171

151 ~

__

s-a. (llII~(4I) __

FOOII_1lg
. &14 FOOII
WlloIesakIs
151 FIlI8il" E~

PAGE

125)...;.__
-511 Rll'0IlI
pc)
2225
R.E!T.Plr~

1531 Ofilall:lal

(next 12 months).

PAGE

1St iIIYesImenI Ca.{I'llIIigIllll3j _)II


EIedric..
lI2l __ . 1775 Noc:I*wr (71)
.1331
EJedrllIIi:s
lID MInuI.1bIUIg.llec Veil(2f) _ I.
%101 En1ertaimsnt 53) __ __
1111 ~
(17\
1m EntB!tehnn 1dI(73)~.1.
__
(3)
. as
tiT E",io"mo"lal (21)
. 351 Modica! SIlppIa (I)
.177

CeIletvlU) _
.121
CanocIiiel EnoovJ pi)
QI
CemeIlI&AWOllI!IS(77)
_117
ChenicaI
(75) --1231
CheniceI . l1od) (55) __
Chen'O:aISpociBIrl1301 __ ._ 471
Coal(11)
!ZI
~
1 p~
(fI) _.._1115
-~
Softw1re & SVCI (151 %171
llNetIfIId Co. (411
1m
0Ng (A)
.1244
E-tannIM:I (14)
.1435

5')

2D

1m
. In
m

NI1J & Ynd (21)

Bent

.551

Educ8IIonaI
EIodriaII~

PAGE

(15)

m lis

_I

1421

514
iaue.

Reparta. VoIIaM LVIILNo. II.

Yorll, N.Y. '00'7-611'

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH10
Page 11 of 13
Part I
File at the front d the
R ..,gs & Roport.
binder. LA. week',
Sunvnaty & Index
llhoUd be l'W11CNod.

Investment Survey-

October 25,2002
TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

~~~~~~~:t::;;'~i;;'~~~
..:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
NoteworthyRankChanges
24-25
SCREENS
Industries. In ordsr of Tirneiness Rank
TIITl8Iy Stocks in Timely Industries
Tvnely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performancel
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 lor Salety
Hi9hest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-J.:' Price Polenllal
Biggest "Free Flaw" Cash
eneralors
Best Performing Stocks lasl13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks Iasl 13 Weeks
Widest Discounls from Book Value

The Median of Estimated


PRICE.EARNINGS RATIOS

of all stocks with earnings

f.2t~

33
33
33
34

Marl<el~
4-1

26Weeb

economic environment 3 lD

stoclts under review

MarkelL.&-21~

1.8%

37
37
36
36
39

years hence

950/0

Marl<W'
4-1

26Woeks

1.6%

2.2%

35
35
36
36

The Estimated Median Price


APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
01 aft 1700 stocks In the ~pothesized

(nexl12 mOlllhs) of all dividend .

paying

20.1

1SA

20.1

32
32

2.20/0

Marl<elL.-

Poo

Stocks wllh Lowest PIEs


. SlocI<s with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Higheat ",,"ual Total RebJrns
Stocks with Highesl3- to 5-yea' Dividend YIeld
High RebJms Earned on TOIaI Capllal
Bargain BaSemenl Siocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utillly Stocks
Highest Growth Stock&

The Median of Estimated


DIVIDEND YIELDS

15.3
26Weeks

24
25-26
2729
3D-31

MarkelL.-

!l-21-e1

Markel~
4-1

105%

55%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the IndUStry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
1t23
.551
1113,253
1151
. It!

Adve!6sing 1111
-'~pace.{letlnso 122l.
MT.... pllII(AJ __
AppnI (411

AI*J Hruct Ill)

PIr!II1tl

Ill)

Blnk
Bank e..-) fill __
Blnk Uidwesl) (31) __ __

m
.21t!

PAGE
Educationol_!
__ .1515
EIemi::aI E~
__
1111
EIodri:UIil.(CenhI)(7 __
85
EIoclri: ~
(711 _. __ 154
EIoclri:
lOll (711 __ .1774
EIednlna
.
11lZ3
EnIorIai>noill

PAGE
_
(PIq>'Cas.) (41) __
SI1
_
(45)
...:_ Z224
_ea.(ZI1
,--_151
m_t ea.(F0Niga)(131 __ HI
MacI1i1eIy (I7J

MnlI. ~

1111 MMIIiIte fI5l

Vth P7I

._

..
WllIIl ~
"fW.T ..(
~
RestIInnl
1331 -1lllM1g Soppy (34l
1555 RalIIlSl>ociiI UIoo) 1171 _.

RIlIi

==

a
SlIn l27I

PAGE

211

1171

lM1
215
111
1715

. 1m .

1571 EnIerlaIrnn ed1 III) __


1511 Modil:lll Seriicos~
.133 SearlioI
1771 _.14211152
117 enwa",1OIal P.!l _.
351 . Medil:lII SlJIIIlhs
. 177 l!emIcaIlUU
lAilddc) III __ 1531 fllllldBl Svca. (lliv~14I) __ 2132 lIIGI F~
__
571 ~
Eq lIll __ 1011
ISo'
M*l 11)
1541 Food PIocess~ I __
.1411 ....... & \oI~
~
__ 1221 Shoo
1113
Bi*IcIIIJdogyIl2l __
.174 FoodWl1c' lit.. I
1532 NanlGas(llislrlJ~
__
411 Steel GInn)
__
. 511
Buld'nillIaloIiIIIlI4l
__
151 F<nign E~
1111 _ 1512 NanI Goo (Diw.) (I'
~
Steel
4)
1&1'
CabIolV\IIl
_
121 F... T...... (I1)
m ~(431
1101 T......
l\l5) __
144
Collldiln ~
(21)
QI
FwnJHomeFumislW'Qs (II) -- D4 0tIic0 EliUIP &
1135 T_.
(1&1 __
7211
Cemort&AwrogoIII(IlII ..__ 1I7 G""'(11) _.-._.
.1511
1M2 T...
-----ll1S
0Clloni:al
1&1)
1231 HoaIllCllllI~
(51) _._112 PICblIi1lII CclIIllinw 1
m Tldl
1111
Ct10mIcaI . IiIId) (411 _
11M Homo AppiBncI (3Z)
117 PII* U<reot Produds (71) _ tIS Tie &
(AJ _
111
ChemIcal Specillyl(l5J ---m Home!luidilg (2)
__ 117 PelnlIoun
.4CIS T::::l.'lIb
1m
Cool (121 __
- sa Hael'GanJiIg III
1171 P_1Ift
. (531 _._.1131 ".
(III
.11
~
&~
(tI1 -- tllS Houset1OId I'roclim~
..
PlIannlCl"
715 Tndi9T~
Leasilg \Ill __ 217
~
SoIInt & Sw:s (731 . 2171 oHlman Resooraos
12IIl Pun' (I&)
m
w* UIay (55)
lut
llMnifiod Co. po) _ _
1371 IodllStiaI Senicos

.32li"l'r8ciJul1letals
(72) __ . __ 12f1 W"'" HIlworki1g 1171
514
"Drug (12) __
__
._ 1244 InfotmatiM ServiI:es I) _. __ .__ 311 ProciIiln IIlIInmIInI (711
12&
E-Cornmon:e It3l
IC3I
(I.Jlo) 151}
1215 P1bishiltl (54)
. 1111
.Roviowod tlHs .............

-.ae
-.ae

=:

In __

s~ ffi' __
--Olliold~l

11ds Is Pon I. _
_

0S"""""'Y

S1Ul

I .--

Inda. Port Z to _

0pInI ....

Part to

weoIdy by V.....UE LIIE'PUBUSHlNG, INC. 220 bot 42n<1Slrool, _

Ra_ . ~ _

yen. N.Y. 1001NllllI1

LVDl, No. L

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-10
Page 12 of 13
Part 1
File at the front of the
Ramgs & Roports
binder ..... 1 __ 0

Summary
&

Investment

Survey

SunvnIJll' & "'<lox


shoulcf be hlIJlC>Hld.

Index

September 27,2002
Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

~'5.:~~~~t=~.=:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::;t~
SCREENS
Industries, In order 01 TImetinesa Rank .............. 24
Timely Stocks In TImely Industries
25-26
Timely _
(1 & 2 for perrormanoel
27-29
Conservative Stoclcs (1 & 2 for Safely
3G-31
Highest Dividend Yielding SlocI<s
32
Stocks wilh Highest 3- 10 S-vear .Prfce Potential
32
Biggest"F
FbN" Cash GeneralOl1l
33
Best Pel10nnlng Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Worst Per10nnlng Stocka 1asl13 Weeks
33
Widest Discounts from Book Velue
34

The Median of Estimated


PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with earnings

15.9

26weeJcs MaiklIllDw

20.1

&-21-01
15.4

h
Mark1!:1
4-1
20.9

Stocks with Lowest PIEs ...................................


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual TOIBI Relums
Stocks wilh Highest 3- 10 5-year Divtdend Yield
High Relums Earned on TolBl CapbJ
Borgaln Basement Stod<s
_
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performencel
Highest Dividend Yieiding Non-ublily Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

The Median of Estimated


DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend
paying stocks under review

2.0%
26Weeks

Markallow
&-21-01

Mark"tW'"
4-1
.

2.2%

1.6%

The Estimated Median Price


APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
01al 1700 stocks in Ihe
economic envirorment 3 to years hence

=ized

90%
26_
Ago

1.6%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL

3S
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

55%

MorkeIlDwMarlcet~
!l-21-01
4-1
105'll0
55%

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank 10r probable performance (next 12 months) .
.....GE

PAGE

PAGE

~
~
(1l~ __ . . l5l! lnltn"'" (I'mp/CIl.113l1
5t1
_
~lII
__ 1111 inIImIl(5!)
.
2224
III.(CennI) (7 __
as ..._eo. (411
..
EIoclriclllly~(741 __
154 m-Co.(f<nign}(I4)
__ :lIlI
lilly IIS1) (It)
1T74 IIIdftry 111\
_.1331
EIeclruIlb \II
1121 IIIIU. HouoiIgIloc Voh(41) _.1555
En1oItaiInlod
I
1111 MartiM (71)
__ 2TI
EraI1Iirnect odI 1M) __
.1511 0lo\ellicll SONi:os~
m
EJnl .. _
~
.351 Uodi:IIISuppios
.1TT
8MrIgo IAk:otl*IIII-1531 FNIdoI S1<L IDiv.llGl __ .2132 lolelll FIbricatiIg
._ ST.
IlMngo (Sol M*l12l _154t
FoodPnIl:esoi>;l(41)
1l&1 _
& M;q
lI3I
.1225
"BioKl.q (III
174 FoodWI' '~ (211 __
1532 NalnI Gas (lliIlrIiH711
.411
9uIdll!l lUlMIls 1431 __
151 Fcn~ EJecm/ErIIeIln (IS) __ 1M2 _
Gas (DIw.1 (77)
431
Cable 'IV I'7l _
at Fcnipl T..... (IS)
m No",popeI' (47)
1l1li
CanadIon
(44) (111
---4ZI FIIIl~
115 0!IIc0
EqII;
1133
Comonl & EMIvr
AW9fIS
.ID
llnlaoy (23)Fumiohilgl(17) __ 1517
Olfilld~.
1142

AdvettisiIg (71) -----1123


AerospDtJe!ne (15) __
551
,. TIlIIIIPO'l(14)
- 1113, 2D
AjlpnIC2TI
1151
/dtJ & Tnxa PI) _
.111
AdIJ Mill
.711
B8It
.2111
Sri CanodoIII (l3) __
1$'11
"81'*
1201
.117

=)

a~l-

Chri:o!

&SLI'I'Iost:-'

12350Heal!ll:arl inbIllftln (54/ _112

CIleml'
I45l _- 1.
C"""*'" SI*iOlYl1311
471
. CoaJ(I5J
_521
l:<JmloMt'&P~(II)
_t1a
~
ScmIo & SlS (75) .2171
DiveIsIIiod Co. P2I __
1m
llnJg III)
1243
E-Com ...... 1I01 .---1431
In three

,..u: TIdI_

P&blIillI& ConIailor
117 Paper 1forest PIOducIl

HomeAppIonce PI)
Home~(l1
M7
~'""i(1.I----------1m
HouoohaIdI'nlc!llcll(U)
141
R~~
_ ..__ .1211
Industrial SeMoos
.321
~
SeMcoS ( 01
311
InsIl!llllCe (LIe11l2l
1213

'*"'*'.

peIJoIeIma

__

.....GE .

RIhm la.l
RUT. (411'
~
\331

217
1171
1141

-1SI

Il4I __

RlIIIIllIIIdiIg ~
RollI (Spodj

s.cutM:=

RalII Slin (111

U2

SomIcoIIcD:lDr

. 1m

(11\ _

1421
1052

SoInIconlM:V
Eq 1M) _1.
Shoe ~
_ 1113
0SlI0I GoowIII
~
__ 511
SIIeI
_
141.
T-.
~
__
741
T.....
s.ao
1121
721
T"'~"
_1115

124 Mil

__ .l1li
111
.405
"...,..
CI) _.1131
1'IlanMt"t'
711
Pow (Ill
.174
I'nItil\Is 1IelalI"\S2I __ . __ 1211
Preciilon IIlIlI\IIIod (IS)
.. 124
Publishilg (51)
.1111

as

tnol 1111_1115

11.1

Tn&
l22t
_ 111
Tobooco(5ll __.
157
T~(IZ1
__
I1'
TI\ICIi9'fIllllll.l.IoIq(51\_217
w'" lay (SSI.
1421
W.... ~
lI2l __
514
o~

P.rt I. die Sa.... .,. &: Indea. PU"'t Z JI, 5 I ctJao1I &: 0pIniaD. Part S .. RatInp Reparta. ~
__
~
by VAUJE UNE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 foot'2nd -...
Now Y..... N.Y. 10017-1.1

~ lis_

.......

LVDJ. No. 4..

Docket No. P-{/3-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-10
Page 13 of 13
Rle the front of the
R.... go & Reports
bindw. wi week'a

erHE
Investment Survey

Summery&'_
be l1IrIl<H1ld.

August 30, 2002


Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

~~~~P~b=c;;'~:a~
..::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
..:.:::::
. ..::::::::::
..:::..::::::
..::::::::::::::::::::::::
..::::::
..:::..::::::
::::
..:.::.:::
...:::::::
..2~

Noteworthy Renk Changes

24

SCREENS
Industrias. in order of Timeliness Rank
24
Timely Stocks In Timely Industries
25-2&
TImely Stocks (1 & 2 for performance!
2729
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safely
30-31
HighllSl Dividend Yielding Stod<s
32
Stocks wlIh Highest 3-- to 5-year Price Potential....
32
Biggest "F"", FloW" Cash Generators
33
Best Perfonnlng Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Wo<sI Perfonnlng Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Widest Disoounlls from Boolc Value
34

The Median of Estimated


PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
01all slocks with earnings

Marl<el Low
&-21001
15.4

/II

21J.1

=ized .

80%

1.9%
Markeufph
4-1

20.1

2&Weeka

Marl<el Low
&-21-01

I\fIo
U%

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

The Estimated Median Price


APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
01 all 1700 stod<s in the
economicenvironment3 III yeaIS hence

The Medisn of Estimated


DIVIDEND Y1ElD$
(next 12 months) of all dividend
paying stocks under review

17.2
26Wooks

Stocks with Lll'MlSt PIEs


Stod<s with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total RelUms
Stocks with HiQ'-l3-to
5-Yll8r Dividend Y"NlId
High Returns Eamed on Total Capllal
Il8rgain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stod<s (5 lor Perfonnenc8)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utnltY SIod<s
Highest Growth S1ocI<s

2& Weeks

Marl<~
4-1

1.&%

2.2%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL

Markel Low

Martel

&-21-01

4-1

1l1S%

rr

S5'1.

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER.

Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE

1123
Aorospace.QolonH (11)
.55'l
,. T....,.r (141
llU, 253
Appnf/211
1151
AI.ID & 1ndl [tl) __ . _.
111
AI.ID flltl (11)
.711
-en
.2111
sa
cu-)(ll)
1571
am
(IZJ
.117
BMrIge(AblhaE)(IJ
1531
~

(II)

-.(SoIlM*lI2l

BidIicIIq(M)
8IMl!I MaliIlIIIS pi)

__

ClblilV(II)

Educational_I

PAGE

1r&\I!IIlCO (PrqlIl&1I441
,.11 *Inlemol (OJ

Inv_ Co. (4tl _


151 _eo.(f<nIgn)(1fJ

CndiIIEMrgy(4fl
Ce!IIm&Agp/Il1II(II)
Chen*aI
71
0M0ica1 . Jiod) fMI
CIrioI SpedoIy)l2ll

FII1I_F"""''*9(17)
__ lIS
----.1&1 GnIc:ery(Z41
.1517
1235 HeaIlhca18 (nbmaIon (35J __ III
_-- 11M Homo AppIno (11)
117
alI Homob,iidilgI1)
117
Cool H
m
HoIoI'Gamilg1311
1m
~
& PO!III>nIo (15) ._- 1113 Household ProdIJdI (21)
MI
~
SofIw1n & Socs (l3\ .2171 Human ROIOIItOS~
1211
DiwnIiod Co. (e,
1m _IriaISorvi:es (45
S2I
Drug (III
.1243 InIormsIian Sol.__
311
E~
fI5I
.1436 Ins_ (Ufo) III)
1m

430

5)(4

No

... __

ndo to ...........
___

__

PAGE

511
eJecticIf Eqlipmonl 1
_2224
locIJIc lIli (CennI)
__
151
EIedlir:~(nJ
__
_315
EIedlir:
IS!) (13) _177t
lIIcIinery (511
1331
EIoctronis
__ 1m
1IIrIolI.1Ic:uiiigb: VoIIl3ll __.1555
EnleItailrnelt
.1111 IIaIIine 1M)
211
~
oQI(l2l __
1511 1IodiaII~(5l
132
EnvioI_ (31)
W ModbI SUJII*.s!\
171
*FiIandaISw:s.(lllvm(5Z)
.2132 MoIIIFabIi:a1ilg
571
,,. FllOIIProc:essi'll(
1411.......
UliWIg(lllv~. 511__ .1225
__172 FoadWho' ~.
) __
1532 NIUIIGD(DiilJI> t) __
tel
151 F", EiocIln'EnIIIilI(5Il __ 1512 NIUII Gel (Dtt.)l . __
Qt

121 F"'TeIocom.lt1I

_1515

Sumauuy A'-,
Port31.s'
by VALUE lIN!! pUBlISHlNG,me.

IIewipIpor(SIl

RacreIliIn

~
RIIBI~
~
RIIIIISDo<:liII,noI
RolaI

SIin

1111

IMI __

11/ _1M

ScIIios=:(lSl
~
~
Shot~
SIM ~
SIM

p-e;

P_l Faeot P_

PoIJoIoun
Pllannaty I

P..... (17)
PI8c:iJus IloIaIi (III
Precision Instnmenl (Ul
PubIIohiIv(62)

-.

-.

_1113
_

_._111

Tn&

1152
111

_1t1l

7.
1.

_131,721

T_

TIIIIl

_.1172

_1421

.1.

T.....
IN

211
_ 1111
1141
211
112

Eq(lS) .%42,1W

1101 T.-..m.

Ofti:oEqlip&S~(22)
0IfieId~.~--114Z
PICbgilg & Contaiw

A~
22ll EaoI42nd

PAGE

Raa-.-l~
RUT.

1111
111
.415 T~
__
1m
_.1131
T'
1121 __
.1,.
111 TIlIdiingIT_1M8lg
(31) __
.114 W*, UIa7 (111
1421
1211 w...... NOIIIoIblg
515
12t
.
.Ro..... n'Iio .........

I.

_.

liS)

(II' __

Port 3b bdnp A ~
_LVII,
_
VA N.V. 10017.-,

5L

..

II';)

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-10
Page 1 of 13

Date of
Value Une
Summary
& Index
Spot
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
6
9
10
11
12

Est Median
Appreciation
Potential
3-5 Yrs. Hence

Est Median
Annual
Appreciation
Potential

Est. Median
Dividend
Yield

December 28, 2001


December 28. 2001
November 30, 2001
October 28, 2001
September 28, 2001
August 31, 2001
JUly 27, 2001
June 29, 2001
May 25, 2001
April 27, 2001
March 30, 2001
February 23,2001
January 26, 2001

60%
60%
70%
85%
100%
70%
70%
70%
65%
75%
90%
65%
70%

12.47%
12.47%
14.19%
16.63%
18.92%
14.19%
14.19%
14.19%
13.34%
15.02%
17.41%
13.34%
14.19%

1.80%
1.80%
1.90%
2.00%
2.10%
1.90%
1.90%
1.90%
1.90%
2.00%
2.10%
1.90%
2.00%

14.27%
14.27%
16.09%
18.63%
21.02%
16.09%
16.09%
16.09%
15.24%
17.02%
19.51%
15.24%
16.19%

12-Mo. Avg.

74%

14.85%

1.95%

16.80%

6-Mo. Avg .

76%

15.18%

1.93%

17.11%

3-Mo. Avg.

72%

14.52%

1.90%

16.42%

Spot

60%

12.47%

1.80%

14.27%

Average

71%

14.35%

1.90%

16.25%

Source of Information: Value Line Investment Survey, Summary & Index, Various dates

Est Median
Annual
Total
Return

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-10
Page 2 of 13
File at the fronL of the

~ALUELINE

eTHE

Ratings
binder.

& Reports

Last week'&

Summ8l)' & Index


be removed.

Investment Survey

sholJd

--

December 28, 2001


Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS


Industries, in alphabetical order
Stocks. in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes
..

1
2-23
24

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks In TImely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safely)
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value .

The Median of Estimated

24
25-26
27-29
3Cl-31
32
32
33
33
33
34

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Talai Capital....................
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utilily Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

The Estimated Median Price


APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 stocks in lhe ~ized

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with earnings

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend

economic environment 3 III

paying stocks under review

1.8%

19.3

,.

26 Weeks
17.2

Mar1<elLow Mar1<etHfh
5-22-0
111-28-87
10.6
18.0

26 Weeks
Ago

1.9'10

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

years hence

600/0

Mar1<etlow Mar1<et~
5-22
111-28-87
3.7%
1.8%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL

26Woeks
Ago
700A.

Mar1<et Low Mar1<eI H!e.h


111-28-ll1
5-22 1
120%
65%

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
.... 1923
Aerospa:eJ!letons.l3Ol __ .._.._.551
'" Transpolll95l ..__._._.
.253
Apparel(M) __..__..
..__ 1151
AII1ll& Trud< (IOJ .._..
__ . 101
AII1llPW 1131 ..
._.. ... 102
Ad'Ierlisilg (73) __ ..

Bank (5(1 ... __..


BanI< (Cana<ian) (911
-sank (Midwest! (H) ..
BMnIge (_I
(41)

EducatlDnal
SeriK:es(.2)

ElectricalEqu~
lTi)
EIedric Uli.ICen'nQ (7l)
Eledric UliIily (Ea>1) (nl
EIedric UliIily ~est) II'I}
_
(51
....

PAGE
.1511
.._.. 1001
.._..__... A5
.._..__.._ 153
__ ... 1710
1022

Entertaiunent
I ._ .. .. lHl
Entertainment 0CI11211
._ ... 1H3
..__ ..117 EnWonmentar (1~ _"'__"
"_'S53
.._ 1541 Filancial S>a;. (DiY.) (37l .._..__ . 2131

.2101
.._.... 1m

(3Il -.-- .. -

BMnIge (Sot(')Dmt)
1411
8iofB<:lIn<tlgY
. (3i) ._.-'-"- 1541
672 Foal
Foal P""""i1g
W1loIesaIe'" (I ..
153f
_i1g _Ie 124/ _..
151 FllI!\1n Eiel:lrDnIEnIeIt (11) _ 15M
Cable iV 1M) __
.._... 121 FllI!\1n TeIeaJrn. (10)
._._
Canadill enelID' 114) _.. __ .. __ .431 FumJHome Furnishings (15) __ 115
Cement lAggregatss I53J _ _......
GoWSiIIer Mililg (.27) _._._
1214
Chem1c81
(17) -- .. -.-1232 Grocery (23) _... ..
.._ 1511
Ch01hcal . ",rllld) (13)
11112HeaIthClllll Intormatiln(11) .._..__111
Chemical Specialy)(S21
..411 Home Appiance 1T8)_
.._._117
Coal (-I _...._.

...535 Homebuld""" II) __ ____ _117

E~)

C<>qIut!r & PerijWaJs(2fi __.. 11191


Collllllftr SoIlwa'" & Sa (lI) .2111
Diwfriild Co. (74) ... __ ....__. 1371
Drug (4/
.__.. .._. 1240
E-Comnwm:e
(21) _..
.__ 1435

HoleUGamilg(13) __
__
1111
Househol1 Pnldudl (311 _..__ _ 94J
HlIIUInR"""",," (15) _ __
1211
IIIduslrialSeMces (44)
_..
InfonnaliIIl 50
(13)
.._._ 37t

PAGE
....1200
nce(ProplCosualy) 1T5) __.. 591
lItemellll) _..
__ 2220
1.. _
Co. 1511__.. . 163
Investment Co.{foleign) (41) .. 363
1ota"*'"'Y (10)
._._._ ...._.1331

Ins
1ns

"", (Ufo) (46)

Iotanuf.HousilgollecVeh (331

__. 1m

I.tarIine (111 __ .._.._ __ ._ ..__ m


"IIodi::e1SeM:os (31 __ ..
.632
Modicel S<JppIiee I7l
._. 17t

(atl .-.-- ..-..-

.-foIota~Fallti:alilg
SlG
& Mililg (DiY. (II) _..__.1222
Nalllal Gas (Disbil,) (iii)
..... 461
Na1urBI Gas(IliYeJsIied) ITI) _" __ 441
Newspaper lI7l __._ ..
..__ 1109
01Ii::e ~& Sq>pIios(.20) ..__ .1133
Olfoetd SeMtesIEq~. (711 _.._.. IMO
Pa<l<"lIiIg& Conlailor (11 .._ _.27
Paper& Feresl P_
(II)
_.101

P_lIIl
~nE9n11edl (77) _ __ .405
P_lIIl
(PrOllJciig (f7) _
1930
I'tlannacyS_
(141 .:....__ _79Z
Poww (51) _....._.. .._..__AI, 971
PrecisionInstrument(43) ._ _.. 124
Pubishilg {72) _..
_
1115

PAGE
219
RHT .15D
1171
R_
) __ _.
._.1141
ReslaUl8Jl\ 11) __ ..
.._217
RelalBItilg &lIJIlII (5)
U2
R.... (SpociIIliIos) (17] __._.1709
ReloI b
(25) __ ._.
... 1111

..-.---------m

l22l

Rai'oad

SeQJIies Broknge (IZ) __.1CZ5


_
(21)
1050
_Cop
Eq (42) .231, lC11l1

e~'----------'

Shoe ~"I
Slael
_.
.187
511
Steel
(t2) _.
.1414
Telecom. tMnert (47) __ ._ ..750
Telecom. Servico& (511) ... _... 721
T'" (35) ... __ ..
lH1
nllll (40)
.
.1111
Tn & Rubbe' (51) _.
..111
T~
..
._ .._ 1514
T
(IJ
... 120
7ruttinglTl8J1SP.1.ealiiIg
(4S)
2t7
WawUtily (tI)
14211
W_
Ne!woItilg (121 ......._.._51.

in tis

._

ileue .

In three paru: 1'biIIi i5 Pwt I, the SIUl1lnUY Ir. Index.. Put Z Is SelectIon OpIn1on. Part 3 is Ratlnp ~.
YohuDt LVU. No. 17.
Published weekly by VALUE LINE PUBUSHING. INC. 220 E81t .. 2nd Slreet, New Vert, N.Y. 10011-6891
2CDl.
"'*'*II. ft. AI Iifa __
F~
......
ii __
.. -.as .....
'Ie nIIbIt ... i5 pIII'iIIId ..... ...-s ..q WII. THE PUIU5HER IS 1101 RESP'C*S8LE RJR M'f ERRORS OR.
OII5$IOtIS HERE .. llIs ~
iI M:IJ'" _
~
~ r.
...*-M __ IikI jlIft.lfi5..,c.bb alIy",..tIGd.
....a'

"'lft

......

lJ

~.~snce
-.l1:lipn.:!.
...........
_.,_
."

L-.

..

pftldIa. ~
6IclOI5 .."..
tUb .. ft......:l."""-O

IU lb
kItispllllalla

UII~
'** ....

~CIlftSINId ~

n..,

111"'''''_ III
catIlII

~.

.,. ...... --,1CtUB


".IIlIII'''
"pre"'" .........

Docket No. P.03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-10
Page 3 of 13
Part I

lALUE LINE

THE

File al the fronl of the

Summary

Ratings & Repons

&

Investment Survey

binder.

Last week"s
4 Index

Summary

Index

shauld

be removed.

November 30,2001
TABLE OF SUMMARY

& INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

Industries, in alphabetical order


Stocks, in alphabetical
order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

:................ 1
2-23
24

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in TImely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for performancel
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safely
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks wtlh Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing
Stocks Iasl 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

The Median

33

33
34

of Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of ail dividend
paying stocksunder review

The Estimated

Markel Low
1l).2~7
10.6

Market~h

5-22

18.0

26 Weeks
Ago
1.8%

Markel Low
1l).2~7

Median

35
35
36
36
37
37

38
38
39

Price

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 stocks in lhe h~polhesized

economic environment 3 10

1.9%

18.8

years hence

70%
Markel~h

5-22

3.7%

1.8'"

26 Weeks
Ago
65%

Markel Low
1l).2~7
120%

Market H~h

5-22
65%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
Advel1isi19 (73)
_
_".. 1123
AerospacO.Qefense
(26) .._ __ .551
Ai'Tllnsport(H) _
685, 253
Appalll (58) _ __ _ _ 1651
AJJlJJ & TrucI:(7') .._ __.._._..__. Itl
AJJlJJ Parts(55) _ _ _._ .._.. __ .102
*Bank (43) _.._ _.._ _ __ 2101
Bank(Canatian) (121
Bank IM-) (27)
_ _ 61'
Bevellgo (AIcoI'<lIi:) (eI) _ 1540
Be_go (SoIl OMIt) (30\) .. __ 1548
Biolechn<qy (9) _
__ _.671
Buiding Malalials(25)
_ 851
Cable TV 1M) ..
._._
121
Canadian Energy (70) _ ..... _.. 432
cement & AQ9I8Il8Ies (52) ..__ 111
Chemical(Basi:) (Ill)
_..__ 1232
Chemicai(DiYaItiiod) (U) .._.._.. 1M2
CherNc:aIISpecialy)(51) _.._ 412
Coal (-) "..__.. ._ _
_.534
Computer& P.~rals (421 _." 1091
~
SoIlwa .. & SYc& 14) .2167
DiversifiedCo. (71) __..__.. ._1379
Drug (41
__ _.._._ f240
E-tommerce (30)
1435

lm

33

The Median

of Estimated

PRICEEARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with earnings

26 Weeks
Ago
18.0

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks wtlh Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on T alai Cap~al
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Slocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

24
25-26
27-29
3ll-31
32
32

PAGE
EducationalSeTllices12)
1591
EIeclricaIEqlJ1>ment
lUl
1001
E_
UtiI. (Genl1IlQ (&0)
_ 695
Eiedric Utiily ~st) (66)
154
Eiedric UIiIily est) ('2) _ 1711
EiocInJnics(601
_
_ _ 1022
Entattainment )
_
lHI
Entertainment ech (21)
1603
Environmental(f71 ......__ _
355
"Financial Svcs.
(32)
2131
FoodPrccosailg (3' .._ _ le11
FoodWholesalers (1
1534
F ~n EIeclronIE""rtn (10)
1564
F ~n Teioalm. (93) .._.. ..,._ m
FumJHomeFumishilgs (17)
US
GotIJSiYar Mililg 129)
I21t
Grocery (24) _
_
_
1511
HIlaIlhca .. infllm1a1ioo(12)
l6D
HomeA~nce 167)
117
HomebuiId"ll (fO
_
U7
HolaVGamilg(11
1871
H"""'hoiJ Produds (35)
N3
HumanResou,,", (N) __"_,,_,,,1211
Indus1ria1 SeM:os (54)
Information Servials (13) ._
381

{OiI'1

PAGE
_. 1200 Raiioad 123)
Insuranco(!'rqliCasualy)(75) .685,590 Rf.I.T.

PAGE
2U
1171
"Jnlamel(221 _ __ _ __ 222D R_ 4ll)
_.._ _. 1841
Investment Co. (5') .._
163 Restaullnt 111 _.._.._ _._.._ 211
Co.(Foreign)(471
364 Rota! Buil1ilg Supplf (7j .._
112
Maclinery (7') .._
1331 Rolal (SpecialLiles) (20) _ 1701
Manu!.~
Veh(311
1551 ReIBI Slin (311 _..__ __
1676
Marltinle(61) __.._
_
213 SecurIios Brok ago ('5) .._
1415
Modical5ervi:oo (~_
_
631 SemiconaldDr
1050
MedicalSuppies \6 _
_ 111 Sem~
tap Ell (41) .136,1018
Molal Fablicating
..- -III
Shoe 1531 .._..__..__._ _.._..__ .lm
Metals & Min!.'lllDi". III)
_.1222 SleeI General)(311 .._ __ _ . 580
Na1lIaI Gas (Dis1rib.)(ID)
_
462 Steel IntagrnocI)(U)
_ _ 1414
Natural Gas{DiIo!slied) (56) __ 443 Tolecom.EquJlmenl150) __._._ 750
Newspaper (17) ...._.._.._..._
1l1li Teioalm. Sorviceo (0) ..__ _
Otri:e E~ & S",,*, fl') .._ 1133 roxie (33) __ __
_ 1666
OlI'E~SII'IicesIE~. (76)
1140 Thril (21)
.__ __ 1111
PacI<agilg& Contailer (15)
127
& Rubbo!(5T)
_ .._
111
Paper & ForestProduds(63)
106 To~
(16) c..- - _ 1564
PelroIeII1I (In8;/III!<I) (74/ .._
405 7-.tosmetics
(5) ..__
_.12D
Petroleum(ProduciIg) (77) _
"30 Trud<ilglTransp.l.ea!ilg (45)
_ :!li7.
Pllarm~ Services (II
7t2 Wa. Ulity (611 _ _ __ f420
Power(15) .._
971 Wnless NetwoI'<ilg (11) _
517
PllICisillllnstrumenl (441 _ _ 124
Pubishing (72)
__
_.... 1895
*RevilrMId il this week's issue.
,",Ul>llC8 (Lile) (41)

__ .._

(49\- - - --..-

In._

rm _......_ _..

no .

n-.

1n three parts: 11rls :b P..-t 1. the SUlllDluy &. lnde.E. Part Z J. SeJecdon &. OpfnJon. P..-t. 3 ill Ratinp: & Report&. Volume Lvu, No. 1.1.
Puta"llhed weekly by VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 Ea142nc1 Street, New Yen. N.Y. 100175891

Docket No. P03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-10
Page 4 of 13

Part J

File al the tront 01 the

Summary

THE

Ratings &. Reports

binder. last week's

&

Investment Survey

& Index
be removed.

Summary

Index

should

October 26, 2001


TABLE OF SUMMARY

&

Summary & Index


Page Number

INDEX CONTENTS

Industries, in alphabetical
order
Stocks, in alphabetical
order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
2-23
2425

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in Timely Industries
....
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for performancel
ConseNative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety
Highest Dividand Yielding Stocks
Stocks w~h Highest 3- to 5-year Price Polential
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

32
33
33
33
34

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

DIVIDEND YIELDS

of all stocks with earnings

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs ..
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks ~h Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yiald
High Returns Eamed on Total Capital
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks ..

24
25-26
2729
3Cl-31
32

16.7

Market Low

1G-28-87

18.0

10.6

Market

26 Weeks
Ago
2.0'"

Low

38
38
39

POTENTIAL

of all 1700 stocks in the hypothesized


ecooomic environment 3 to 5 yeatS hence

2.0%
Market High
5-22-Uf

36
36
37
37

The Estimated Median Price

APPRECIAnON

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocksunder review

16.8
26 Weeks
Ago

35
35

850/0
Market High

1G-2~7

5-22-Qr

3.7%

1.8'1'0

26 Weeks
Ago

750/.

Market Low

Market High

1G-2ll-ll7
120''''

5-22-111
65%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral In parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
AlI"'ltising (81) _
_
,.23
E.. caIioIlalSe1'li:es 12}
1594 *11lSUll1la!(life) (43)
1210 Ratoad (31)
__
_
289
Aerospac~",.
(25)
_.._ 551 Eledrical Equipmenl(S2)
IDOl IflSJIiIlco(ProplCasualyj
(841 .615, 5tO *R.E.I.T. (S2l _
__ _ 1118
Ai'T""SflOIl (l2) _
&IS, 253 Elearic UIi. (GenIraI} (77J
_ &95 "'remel (23) _
_
221& ReaBIIIiln 41)
_.._._ __. lNI
Apparel(3Q) _.. __
_ __ 1&!11 Elearic UtIIily (East) (&4) .._
154 InvestmentCo. (10)
_
_ 9&3 Restaurentl'l) __.._.. ..__ 2M
AIltD & Truli (79/ ._
_
10f EJedric lJIiIity ~es~ (10) _ 1782 Investm.nt Co.(forelgl1)(51) _""" 3a4 Rerai
Su~ (lfl
.. 112
!lute Part> (40)
_ _
SlI2 E_
(70
_
1022 Ma"*,,,IY (7.4)
1331 Rllai (SpociaIliIes) (27)
1711
BanI
2101 Enterla~ment I3l _
: 1811 Manu(.HousingJRocV.h (32) .._. 1560 Relai Stin (34)
_.1&78
Bank Canadian)(iI) _..__
1580 Enterlainment och (18)
1&05 MarQne (14) ._ .._ _ _ _ 213 SeaJrIies Brok~ (15) _ __.1424
BanI ilwest) (3&) _ .._ _
&1& Environm.ntel(5) _ _
_
355 Mecf.. 1Servi:es(3\631 Semi:onct.JtD' (501 _..
_ 1051
BMrage IAk:otIoIi:) (7&)
1543 fin.ncial Svcs. (0".\(331 _ _.2132 MadicalSupplies(f _
_ _ 181
tap Eli (48) .I36,1DU
Baverage (Sot DrinI<) (541 _._ 1551 FoodProcessilg (:It
1481 Malal F.bricatlng(711 .._
5U S/IOej3l) __ __.__
.1.
IlIotaclill<iogy (12) .._ _ _ &71 Food WhoIesa~.. (1
_ 1537 *Mela~ & MiI!.'\I (DiY.) ~
_
1222 Steel GennI) (47) ..
..__ 580
Buildilg MaIoria~ (1') ..__
851 ForeJ,jnEIettonIEn18rln1M) _ 1517 NsturalGas (Distril.) (
__
4&2 Steel InIaln\Ild)
1414
Cable TV (13) __ .__ .._
121 Foregn TeIea>m.(17) .._ _ _ m NaturalGas(Divo.. iied) 28)
443 Telecom.Eq""""n1 58) _ __.._750
CanadianEn"'llY (42)
__
432 FumlHOOlOFurnishing.(89)
895 NBWlpaIlOl(H)
_
1901 T.Iocom. SeM:es (73) _ _._ 720
Cement & Aggregates(55) _ _ 811 *GollISilYer Mililg
1214 0IIa Equip& ~
113) _ 1133 Texlie 138) __
_
_1&61
*Chamica'5asi:) (10)
_
1232 Grocery(24)
_
_
__. 1522 Oifiek! S~qu~.
1i441 *Thrift (11) _
__..__
_ 11&1
Chemical . ..iiad) (91)
_.. 1911 HeallllCareInfonnslioll (21)
H4I Padlagi"og& ConIainer (22
_ 927 Ti'a & Rubbet(75)
_.._.._ _ 111
Chemical Specially)(66)
412 HomeA~pia1la! (56)
_
117 P.per & FlJost Producls(&1)
906 T=""~
.._..__ _.._.. 15I7
Coal H ......
_......... _.._ 534 HOOlObuiJdllf1
(61
_
__ 817 PolnlIeun (InegratBd)(44) _ _. -145 T
/81 _.._ _.'21
Computer & P.~ra~
(&2) _"_ 1098 Holel'Gaming(72)
_
1878 P.lIllIe\lll (Producing} (4S) __ .1931 TrucUlgITransp. leasing (53)
_ 2S7
Comput.r Software & 5":S (2t) .21&1 HouseholdProducls (511 _
143
(TJ
_ 792 Waler UtiiIy (HI ..__.._..
1419
Dive.. ifoed Co. (17) _
1379 *Human Rosoun:es
1281 Power (6
_ .._ _
97& Wirelas. NetworkIng (26)
_ 517
*Drug (4)
__._ _ _ 1240 InduslrialSe1'li:es (35 ..__
Precisiln nstrument(49) _
124
E-COmmerao157)
_ 1434 lnformaticnSe1'li:es I )
-- 380 PUblish~g(7&)
-1895
*~
In Ills _.
isu.

&lldnv

rei)

- - -

Sam_

1'31

"S,

_..

INL __

(6'1

p""rm.~s.1'Ii:es

In three povtE Tht. .. Pare I, the Summary .. ]ndex. Part 2 I. Selection &; Opinion. Part 3 Is Radnp .. Rc!pcIrQ. \IoIwnI! LVD. No. a.
NlIOhod _Iy by vALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 eas"2nd
Stntet. New V""," N.Y. '00\7-589'

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH.10
Page 5 of 13

Part)

THE-"LUE
~

~,'

LINE

Investment Survey

File at the fronl

Summary

at

the

RaJmgs & Reports

&

binder.

Last week's

Summary

Index

& Index

shoul. be removed.

September 28, 2001


Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS


Industries, in alphabetical
order
Slocks, in alphabetical
order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
223
2425

SCREENS
Industries. in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in Timely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 lor Performance)
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 lor Safety)
Highest Dividend Yielding Slacks
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts lrom Book Value

The Median

of Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELQS

of all stocks with eamings

Marl<el Low
1ll-28-ll7

10.6

The Estimated

26 Weeks
Ago
2.1%

Marl<e1 ~h
4-22
19.7

Marl<el Low
1ll-28-ll7
3.7'/0

Median

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

Price

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 stocks in the ~potheSized

economic environment 3 fa

2,1%

years hence

100%
Marl<e1 ~h
4-22
1.6%

26 Weeks
Ago
90%

Marl<et Low
1ll-28-ll7
120%

Ma1I<el Hiilll'
4-22
35%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable perfonnance (next 12 months).
PAGE
Advertisilg (58)
_
1923
*Aerospacelllefense(20)
_ 551
Air Transport(11)
_
685, m
ApparaI (13)
__
1651
Auto & Truct (&5)
__
101
Auto PaIII (to)
_
8H
Bank
2101
Bank Cenadian)(11)
1580
"Bank (M_) (.1)
_ _.flf
Bever"llll (AIc:olilM:) (531
1943
Beverage(Sol omk) (40)
_ 1551
"BioIectm<iogy (23) _
&71
8uliJilgMnrtilb /19)
151
Cable 1V (14)
832
Ca~iaIl En6IID' (45) m
Cemenl& Aggrega1es(56)
890
Choml:s11BaSt) (70)
1233
Chemical Oiverslied)(&5)
1111
CIlemicaJSpeciaIy)(&I)
_ 412
Coal (-)
534
~
& Perp,erab (69)
109li
Co~.r Softwara& Svcs (2&) .21&1
0iversiIied Co.(M)
_
1371
Drug (7)
_
12.1
E.commeral [50)
~ 1434

I")

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocksunder review

15,7
26 Weeks
Ago
15.4

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks w"h Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Retums
Stocks with Highest 3- 10 5-year Dividend Yield
High Retums Eamad on Total Capital
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 lor Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

24
25-26
2729
31).31
32
32
33
33
33
34

PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
EducetionalServic8s (11
1594 Inslllllnce {Life) (.7)
lm Ra_oad (34) .._
289
Eiedri:al Equipment(89)
1001 *lnsurance(1'rnPlCasuaky1l86).._.. 590 R.EJ.T.(St) ._
_.._.._ 1178
Eledric Uti. (CennQ (82!
615 krtemet (42)
_
_ _ 221& Reaea1ioo13&\ .._ _
_ 1841
Eledric UIiIy (East) (7.!
194 In._
to. (&1) .._
965 Restall8nt (1. _
_
298
EIecIric UIiIy (Wesl) (Tf) _ 1782 Inv_
to.(Foraign) (M) _ 3&4 R.1aBBUidilg SIJIllIIt(8)
_
W
E1eclronl:s(78b
1022 Madinery (78)
1331 Retai (SpeciiII.ileS) (1') _
1711
EnlBlla~ment
1"1
Manut.Housinglflec Veh (24)
1560 Relai Stire (21)
_ 1&78
Entertainment ech (15)
1&05 Marane (9)
2U Securiieo 1lroI<~ (15)
142t
Ell'Iiroflmentat(fl
355 "Macbl Sel'li:es (31
_ 631 Semi:on<b:tlr (521 _.._
tlN9
F~.ncial
(Div~. (33) __ 2132 MedicalSupplies(11)
181 Semi:oIlGIclorCep E~ (37) 108&
FoodProcessilg (
IUl *Metal Febricoli1g(73) .._
_ 568 Shoe
1&19
Food_lers
(2
1537 Melab & M~~ (Div.)l8II)
1222 *Steel
IQ(12)
_ __
580
ForeignElectM'EnteItn {93}
1587 Nab/ral Gas (Distri>.) (N)
482 SIeeI Inlegralld) (511"."'."".' 1414
Fore~n Telecom.(17)
7811 Naual Ges(IlMnllied) (22)
W Telocom.Eq~
57)
751
Fum.lHomeFumishil/' (90)
U7 Newspaper{H}
1119 T.Iocom.Services {N}
720
GokllSllver Mililg (35)
121. 0lIi:e Equip& Supplies(1&)
1133 TeJIiIe(!II ._
1&61
G"""ry (2&)
_ _
1522 Oiliold~.
(83)
19411 Thill (17) _
11&1
*Heellhce.. IntonnBlion(31)
Packagilg & Conlailer (25)
929 Tn & Rubller(75)
111
Hoo1e Applance (71)
117 Paper & Faost PlOduds (72) .._ 901 ToImc:a>(21)
_
1587
Homebuildilg(.,
1&7 Petrole"" (11IlBgra1ed)
(0131
tOl Toie~
(10!
_ &23
HoIeVGamilgItIl)
1&7. PeIroIe"" fProducilg) (3&
1930 TrudcingITransp.Leasilg (&0)
287
HouseholdPlOducls(&7)
945 PharmacyServices(5)
791 Won UIity (12)
1.19
HumenR8IillIIrces!17J
1212 Power(51)
1811 Witless NeIWork~g(30)
IndustrialServilEs 32)
_............... Pracisiln I_nt
(48)
I2t
InfoI'l1\a1Dl SIMoes 112)
__ 380 Publishing (83) ~..
1195
*Reviewed i1 tis MleIr's ediJi::f1.

=..__

s.ca.

'17

M .. _

In three pau: Thb: b Part I, the Summary

&: Indez. Part 2 J. SelectIon &. 0pInI0IL Part 3 b Radnp &: Reporu. '\IoIume LVD..No. 111

Published weekly by VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 East"2nd


Struet. New Vert" N.Y. 10017-5891

021111, -.l.JN P\.d!lIilg. be. AI rva 1I5II'fIlI. f ... '-'1


Is .....,
..
1lUtIIS ......
Ill ............
& pr-*!1Ilt'aa -.us Of IIIJ 1rihI. THE PUBUSIIER IS frlOTIIESPOISIILI FOR MY EIlRORS OR
CIIISSDlS lERE" 1tD ~
i511i1ty b' ..,. IID5aIIn OM!. n.. COII_d& ~
.. Ita 1III'l1l.. plbIalkrIlUJ"""'"
..aI. -.d or hMiIIlI iI .., prIIMI...-: ..........
b
~
fI
.". ph. orIiKITnl: paakIn. ....
p-lllU:L 0Ian. *-in. ~s
III'Mll1ia. .. (I .... \ill ~
IIIC... 15'" IS tOil ~
CDIIIPMI5. ~....,
ICCII:Ua
1Ir..,.
u.. K. 1Cl:S. ---....... IJ Cl'llll1IlCb'" .. ~
G' -w:I
111ft pAlicIIDn.lclI'*IJ ,-*Ilo*l III ~
IS trI .... 111." C\II!III .cnia. 1Il;.e ............
1lI*a

Docket No. P-03-4


# 2 to FJH.10

Workpaper

Page

THE

Ratings & Reports


binder. last week's
Summary & Index
should be removed.

Investment Survey'

August 31, 2001


Summary & Index
Page Number

& INDEX CONTENTS

TABLE OF SUMMARY
Industries, in alphabetical order
Stocks, in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
2-23
24

SCREENS
Industries, in order at Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in Timely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Perfonmance)
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks w~h Highest 3-to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Perfonming Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Perfonming Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

The Median of Estimated

24
25-26
27-29
3D-31
32
32
33
33
33
34

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highssl 3-to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Eamed on Total Capital __ _ _
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Perfonmance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-uti1~ Stocks
Highest Growth Stock.
..

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
01 all stocks with earnings

The Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend

1.9%

18.3
26 Weeks
Ago
16.1

Mar1<etLow
11).28-87
10.6

26 Weeks

Mar1<et~h

4-22-

19.7

Mar1<etLow
10-28-87
3.7%

in parenthesis
PAGE

after

the

industry

is rank
PAGE
AdvertisingIll)
_
1123 EducalilllaJ SeM:es (2) ..__ .._ 15~
Aerospacenlefense (11) ..__
551 EIetlricaI Equipment (16) .._1001
Ai! Transpoll (12) ..-- ........ -. 253 E_lJIi.
(Cennl) (ll) -..----- 615
AppaIeI (10)
1651 EIodri: Utiity~) (II) __
151
PJI<o Trvc:t (M) ..
._ ... . 101 EIedric UIiiIy osQ (10)
... f712
Aula P.rIs (53)
....__. .._.105 El8d1alics ( ~_ ..
..__ .. 1022
PJI<o PaI1s (Replacement) (-)
. Iff Ent0l1a8lll18tl1 ) _.._...... .... fNl
'Bank (44) ..__...._.
.._ _ ... 2101 EnIerl8i1menl ach (17) ._._._ 1&05
BanI (Callllllllnl lal __
..
1510 ~
P) .._.
. 35T
Bank(M~
(43) .._
__ III .,,~.ncial Svcs. (OHm (27) _.._.2132

4-221.6"10

38
39

Median Price

Mar1<elLow Mar1<e1Hi&\'
1l).28-87
4-22120%
35%

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


performance
(next 12 months).

for probable

PAGE
(Lifo) IU)
.._
1200
InsUlllncs(Pn>plCasually)
(14) _ !!IlI
(311_..
2211
Inv_ ta.j5&)
..
I_I
c..(FotOign) (77)
_ 3H
Macllilory (~) _. __..
_ 1331
MsIIut. Housi1g.llt< Veh (23) .._. 15&0

'ns""",,,

,,_t

36
36
37
37
36

70%
26 Weeks
Ago
70%

Mar1<el~h

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL


Numeral

35
35

APPREC~TIONPOTENTIAL
of all 1700 stocb in lhe ~POlhesized
eoonomic environment 3 III years hence

paying stocks under review

_.&5

Raitoad ~

..__

RfJ.T. (

..

PAGE

. 2ICI

1171
1141
ZIt
RI/IIi Buiding ~
(I) _._ .._.._113
RaI8i (SpaciIIl.iI8s) 11')
1711

_1IIn1l2'1 1--...-...-------.
-

Ratal SIlrt (31)


1&71
S8aJrIieo Brut!
(15)
.1424
.. .._. &31 Sami:Gndlcb'
_..
1049
MediailSuppias '~
187 _
EqU\> (41) __101&
Il8v8raga (AblIloEI (54)
.._ 1543 Food PIllalssing (
..__ 1411 Mel8I Fabri:aCiIg 51 __
_ 5&1 SIIo8 ~I__
.lm
{SolI omI:ll&5l
1551 Food WhoIeoaIe!s ( ..
1537 _H M~
'. ~5) ..__ lZZZ S1saI ~~------510
-"*'91' (241
&71 Forai<InE~
(14) __ 1567 Nalnal Gos (IlisIrI>.)
.4&7 S1saI
'14
Buiding M81erials 113) _.._..._..__151 FDI8~~Iacom. (17) __...._...._. 710 Natural G"{Divof$IiBd) 14) ........ 448 Telaam. qu1rnarII ) _.._.... _.. 751
CabIa TV (131
132 Fum
Fumilhilgs lID)
897 I/ewspapBf (HI
.. 11C19 Telecom. Sarvas (IlI1
.72lI
CBnaOll81
~n8l1lY(31) _.._
_ 436 GoklISilvsrM~ing 134)_..
.._1214 Otli:e E<i~ & lllWiBS (21) _ 1133 T_147)
.._.__ _ .._ __ 16M
CBmenl& AggTeg8tBl(581
.890 Gnx:e'Y (291
.
1522 Olliekl Servi:esIEqu"'1501
194G Thrll (11)
..
1111
CIIemi:oI~"i:)IH)
.. 1233 Healhca .. Inbmation (20)
HI Packaging & Conlail8r 42)
.. 121 Tn & RWbar (15) __
.11.
Chemical DiversIiBd) (12) __...... 1161 Home Appia"'" (11)
_,.. _ t22 P.per & FllI1llIlP_
(67)
101 T~INb----...- ..--. 1511
C_I
Spacialy)(II) _..._.__417 Homebuidillg (1) _...._._
H7 PeIroioIIn (IntograI!d) (12) ._
4GI T'
(21) __ .._ 123
~r
& P.ripherals (11) _.._ 1091 HolellGamillg (37)
.._.._.._ 1171 PeIro!elm (PIoducilg) (41) _ _. 1130 TlUddng1Tranap.L8lISi1g(41) _ 2f7
'ConlMJ!r & SlCS (25) .2111 _
Produds l55J
.. 145 Pharmacy Servi:es II)
_ 795 WaIBf Utay 1I1)
._ ..
.141.
Divor>ilild Co. (63) _.._ __ _ 1m
Human
1282 Power (4G)
__.._
_ 180 W-.
N8twO'tilg (41)
._ 521
lJnJg
1241 Industrial SeM:es 30 __.._ __.... _OOlnstrument(51)
_ _.._.. 121
E-Comrnarce (35)
_ 1434 Information Se..... ( 6)
.._ 382 PubishDlg (11) ..._......_.. .....lU5
,_
iltis _.
_
Marline II) ..
Modical Selvi:es~

....

.214

Be,.,.

m _.._......._ __..

6 of 13

File at \he front of the

Resources!~ _ _..__

In d1I'ft! para:: 1ldII1s P8I1: 1. the Suaunary ... lnde.. Part ! t. Selection &: 0plnI0IL Pur: 3 b Radnp Repon:a. VoI:ume LVI. No. 52NlI .... cd _
by V .....UE liNE PUBLlSHlNG, tNe. 220 Ecst 42nd __
v .... N.V. 10017-5891

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-10
Page 7 of 13

Summary

THE

Ratmgs
binder.

&

Investment Survey

File at the fronl of the


& ReporlS
Last W6ek's

Summary

Index

& Index

should be flMTlOVed.

July 27, 2001


Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS


IndUSlries, in alphabetical order
Stocks. in alp/labelical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

'" 1
2-23
24-25

SCREENS
Industries, in order of TimeHness Rank
Timely Stocks in Timely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for performancel
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Slocks with Highest 3- to S-year Price Porential
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks lasl 13 Weeks
Worst Performing 51ocl<s last 13 Weeks
Widesl Discounts from Book Valua

24

25-26
27-29
30-31
32

32
33
33
33
34

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Slocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks wnh Highest 3- to S-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capnal
Bargain Basement Stocl<s
Untimaly Stocks (5 for Performanca)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utUny Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

37

37
38
38
39

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

The Estimated Median Price

DIVIDEND YIELDS

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocks under

review

17.9

1.9%

26 Weeks Marl<e1Low Marl<e1~h


4-221ll-2U7
Ago
19.7
10.6
15.7

26 Weeks Marl<e1low Marl<e1~h


4-22Ago
1ll-2U7
3.7"~
1.6%
2.0%

of all 1700 stocks in Ihe h~POlhesized


eoonomicenvironment 3 10 years hence

700/0
26 Weeks Marl<e1low MarXel HI:'
1ll-2U7
4-22Ago
120%
70%
35'~

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
Adwrtising (56) ..__..
__.. 1m
Aerospace.Qefense
(2lI) .._.._.._ 551
Ai TrlllU1por! (0)
... __ .._
253
AppaJtI (12)
1&51
AIAD& Tn.d f77)
.. ..
101
Au1D PlIIIs (74)
.._..__
..,
Auto Parts (RepIammonl) H __111

Bank re1)

_..__

_ __ 2101

Bank ConMMn)(72)
..__ .. 1!11
Bank ilI-.t) (56) _
_.616
Bel'Orago (Ak:ohc>i:) (451 _
1544
Beverage (SolI DTitk)(54).._ 1552
-"'*'IIY
(32) __ ..
&71
8uid~g MaIoria~ (111 ..
151

cable 1V 115)
..
....
132
canadilll Energy(34) _...
._ 43li
Cement & Agvegates (19) _._ 190
"ClMmca1 (BesC1 (Ill .._ __ 1m
Chemical (llNonlied) (16) "_""_ 19M
Ch8micaJ(Specialyl (73)
_ U7
Colll!lUtllr & PeripherBlo(75t , _ 1096
~LUr
SoIIwara & SYi:s (21) 2159
Dive"iflld Co. (511)
1350
'Drug II) __ .._.
..__ 1241
E.Qlmme (17)
__ 1406

36
36

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with earnings

35
35

PAGE

PAGE

PAGE

1m ~suranco (Life) (411 _.._.._


1200 Ratoad ~J
_._
.. .._ 210
_ 1001 IIIsurance(ProplCasualy)(71) .._.. 59D 'R.E.I.T.(
.._.. 1171
_. 0'
_
(4.1) .. _.. __ .... _._ ..
22fl
R.aesfim 47) __.._.. ._.. . 1141
151 Inv_ Co. (A)
H5 ResllIulIIIl (23)
219
" '" 17.
In._
Co.(faeitln) (79) _
316 R.... Buildilv ~
(311) __..__.. 113
_
1022 MacIWIory (&:I)
_.._ _ 1301 RslaII (Special LDs) (21)
.._.1711
..
1161 Manu!. Housil~ .. Vell (27) _ 1561 Rotai Stao (35) ..__..
...._. 1m
_
1101 Mrine (7) _
_
_.214 SoclIftios 1lId<~1I3l .._..__.1396
EII'IiDnmenIaI(4) __ .._
__
357 Mod'.. ISeM:eo~
_
&31 Som~(44)
__..__.._..__ 1049
Filondal SYl:lI. (Oiv.\(311 __ 2132 Modical Supplioo 13\
_..__.._.. 117 Sem~
cap Eq"" (31) _.1.
Food PlllCllSSilV160
1411 _I Fabricatilg
__
568 SlIoo 116) _.._ _.._
. 1611
Food Wholesalers (3
_
1531 _~
& M~ (Oiv. (63)
1222 StaeI ,~1~
__ _..__._.5IG
FllIeiglI EloctroIIIEnlBrtn (11) __ .. 156& NalIIlaI Gas {Distril.) (13) .. __ _.467
StaeI (~
. I
.1311
ForaitlnToJoam. (17) _ _
7&0 NRIraI Gas(DiversIioQ) (11) _.. 441 Teloalm. quiment '1) .._ _ 751
FumJHorno Fum.h~.(12)
117 Newspapor (M) __.. .._._.__.. 1110 ToJoam. SeIYicos (ID)
72lI
~
MiIilg (3lIJ .. __
__ 1214 01Ii:e E~ & S~
(42) .......1133 T_ (401
........ .._ 1611
GnIalry (37) _......
1522 OilHl
1!145 *T1vIl (14)
.11.1
HeaIlhc8 .. Intlnnailn (221
Pack'ogiIg & Conlai1or ill
_fZf Tn & RuIllIer (N)
_
11.
Home Appiance (12)
122 Paper -;. F..... Procluds (7&) _ tDI TobacaJ (10)
..__...__ _ lsa
HomebuiiJilg 121 --.- ..- .. m P_""
(integrated) (I!) _.._ 4If Tlliol'iesICosme (26) ..__ ._._.123
HoIeVGam~ 111_ _
1ST. Pelrtlle""tprocb:ilgj (2') _ 1133 Truc:t<i1gf1"ra'!!l!:leasilg (59) __.. m
~
I'I1ldIJ<is (17)
..__ .. US ~
SelVials (6) __..__ ..__ 7t5 War UIiIy lMJ
1)t1
'HUIII8nROSOIfCeSIN) .._
1212 Powor (3lI) _ .. _
_
91D Wniess NetwOII:i1g (52)
_ 521
lndus1lialSel'lices 33) .._ __..__ ._. P_iln InsInlment(41) __..__ .. 129
Inlonnatian Servi:os 11') .._
312 PubiishilV(64)
_ 1115
._
.. !his _a
_.
EducationalSeI'Iil:es(1)
EIeclricaI Eq~nl(l7)
EIecIrieUIiI. (CoIIbI) (7')
EIedric UIiily (EosI) (151
EIecIrieUIiIiy (WosI) (62)
E~ics
(15~ .._
Enle!laiMlolll III)
Entnilmenl etli (251

Sri:eslEquil.!431 .__..

Part Z is Se't ttlon 0pbzI~ Part 3 la Ratlnp RepoI1:a. Valume LVI,No. 47


Pmfished weekly by VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 Ear"2nd Stn!let, New York, N.Y. 10017-5891

In three pm"b: 'I1rls b Part 1. the Summary It Indu.

Docket No. P-OJ-4

Workpaper # 2 to
Page

File at the front 01 the


Rslings & Reports

THE

binder. last week's


Summary

& Jnf1eK

shou'd be removed.

June 29, 2001

lnduslries. inalphabetical order


Stocks, in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

Summary & Index


Page Number

& INDEX CONTENTS

TABLE OF SUMMARY
_

__

1
2-23
2425

SCREENS
Industries, in onder of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in TImely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
ConseNative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)

24
25-26
27-29
30-31

. Highest DMdemfYieldingEtocks

32

Stocks w~h Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential


Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks lest 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Slocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

with
with
with
with

Lowest PIEs
Highest PIEs
:
Highest Annual Total RelUms
H.ighest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield

Bargain Basement Stocks


Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest.GrowIhStocks

The Median of Estimated

of all stocks with earnings

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying slocl<s under review

26 Weeks Ma,*elLow
10.28-87
AI,JO
10.6
14.4

Ma,*el ~h

4-22
19.7

26 wees

AI,JO

Ma,*e1 Low
10.28-87

70%
26 Weeks

Marl<et~h

3.7%

.2.2%

39-

The Estimated Median Price


APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of al11700 stocks in the ~esized
economic environment 3 to years hence

DIVIDEND YIELDS

1.9~/o

17.2

35
35
36
36
-:J1
37
38
38

'HighHel1Jms'Eamed'onTolitICapital

32
33
33
33
34

The Median of Estimated


PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

4-22
1.6",0

Ago

Ht

MaI1<etLow Ma,*el
1ll-28-87
4-22

120%

90%

35Y

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral.in parenthesis after the industry is rank fo~ probable perfonnance (next 12 months).
PAGE
Adverlisilg (59)
_
1925
*Aerospacelllelenso
(24) _ _ 551
Ai TlWpOrt ftll) ........._ __ m
Apparel,,) __,_,, __,,_, ,,_,,_, 1651
Auto & Truck
101
Auto Parta (OEM (74)
__.. ICIII
Auto Porta (Replacomant) (40) .._.. 111

(16l- ...-- ..- -.....

. !lani..l54!-'

._. 2ltl
Bani: (CaIllMian) (51)
1511
"Bani< (MiMootI (64) _ _
6f6
BovolllllB
(41) - --- 1544
I!eloIalIo Sol Dmk) (31) -_ _ 1552

l-l

'BD1ecIuiokJg,1Z7J

__..

._ __.m

BtMll9 Molerials (31) __..__..__.. 151


Coble TV (95)
..
__.832
Canadian Energy (25J __
_ 436
Cemonll.A9II'ogaIel(&7). _II!
ChemicallBasi:) (W)
_.. 1231
Chemical DivoIsiliodJ(ll) _.. 1116
ChomcaI SpociIlty) (71) .._ _.. 417
e-tar & P~1s
(70)_ 10H
QlrnpuIorScl\waleIS1l:s12tl .218
DiveISi!ild Co. (16) _ __._ _ 1350
Drug (14) __....... _
_ _ 1231
E-Comma
(21) _ _ __ _. 1401

Stocks
Stocks
Stocks
Stocks

(11

PAGE

PAGE

1515 InsullInOll (llfll) (33) .._


_ IIN
Eleclrical Equi'ment (13) ..-1001 *InsUllInce(Prop!Casualy)
(61)
no
Eioctric Uti. !Cantral) /75) __
615 Intomot (51) _..__....__....._ _._ 2219
tIo<lric UIilly~'1'7l
.._..._ 151 lnvostmenl Co'15ll ... _.._ __ ....1G3
Eioctric lJtiily est) (42)
171G In._nl
Co.(FOIOign)fT7) _.. 366
E_
.. (
.._
_
__ .. 1023 I.IacIinoIy (15) .._ _ _
1301
Enlertainment 84)
__
1161 Mollllf. Hou~ Voh (44)
1511
EnleIlaB1me!Il och{IJ1 __
. 1..
_
(17) ..

.214
Envionmontal (4) ..__ _..__ _ 357 _I
SoM:oo (5) __ _ 531
Filanda! Svc!. (DiY.) (HI _
2132 MedicalSuppies (1'~
_. fl7
Food P...... i1g (16) .- .._ _.. 1411 _I
F~
(I ..--..-..- 561
Food WhDIesaIeIS (12)
_.. 1531 14l!ta1l& 1Ii1i1g(DW. (45)
_. 1220
Educational
SeM:es

N_

foroign ElBc'alAilE"eb'1tIl _ ,.

_Gal'{llisbli.)1!I)

Foro~n Tolecom.lM)
__
FumJHome Fumi;hilgs (13)

:II&!

784 NablalG (DivoIS1iod) (I)


441
.. 191
(97) _._._.
..__ 1111
GokllSiver Mining (22)
1211 (lIfts Equip & S~ios (55) _ 1136
GJol:eIy(A31
1522.. 0itUl~.~
_196
<tieallhca.. lnlonnalion (23) .. .. NO Packaging l Conlainor (51)
_.. m
HomeApplanoe(II) .._
122 PlI\lO'Horost P_
(II) _ 107
Homobuldilg (2) ...._ _.._
HI Petroleum (InlegTRld)1'1)
_ 401
HoIeVGa~(7) ..
_ 1171 PaI10IetIn (P~)
I)
.._.1133.
_Pi<AM:lsfl2)
_c943l't!annatys.M:os\S}
lI!I

lit) .._ _.

Human RosoU1Ol!S
1210
Industrial Services 34) _ _
_.
Infonnatiln Services (15)
_.. 312

Power 153) _ ....__..__ ._..


Plleisiln Inslnlmont 147) .._

PUbliohilg(63)

_._

PAGE

(~l._
.__
. .._

Ratoad (321 __
__ __ 290
R.E.I.T.
1171
RoaoaIi:Jn 41) .._ ..
.1841.
'IlBSlalAJll1'l1l __....
.... 211
RotaJ Buidilg Supply (SD) _._ .._.. 112
Rolol (Special Li>oI) PO) .._
1711
RolIIl StOlBl35)
..
.__ .1671
SecIrIios 8RlWage-(l6l, _13M
.
Semi:oncb:b' (31)
..__ ..__ .. 1052
Semllon<b:tlr Cop EquiJ (a) fatO
Shoo 1'1)
..__ ..__ ..__ 1m
*Sleo/ GeIlOlJl) (71) __ __
SIG

'SloilI11nblIJlilolll1lll

. 171

__ 121
1195

Tolocom.
Eqll\lri1ont fIG)
To-..
SoM:oo (12)

_._.

"':.'SIll

753
._.720
T_
(49)
.._.._ 1616
TldllN.
1161 .
T'. & RUbllor (71) _.._ __
111
Tollocco(U) _..__.._.._ _ 1511
ToIelriesICo&met (37) ..____ 123
7rucki1g1TllIll8p.laasing
(73) ._ .. m
WoEUtily'lM1
_ 1391

*_

Wrekls. NeIwolUtg

f521 _

in D;s

_.

521

.1D tbree part&: 1'1lb III Part J. the SUIIIIJUU'Y&: Index. Part 2 Ja Sdect:i0lD &: 0pln:Ian. Pan 3 Is Ratinp Ir Reparts. Volume LVI. No. 0.
PublIshecI weekly by VALUE LINE PU8L1SHING, INC. 220 &514200 Street, New York, N.Y. 10017.-5891
.21ll", ...
UrlI ~
R. AI f9lII.-.:l ~1ICl:IIII
."""
suas
e
ifill is pmQd ....
~"" Ii:hl. J}fE P1.lIl.8HEA IS IIOT RESPaIS&E FDANIP EnoAS DIt
.DIIt5SOIS .llEREII..TliI"'-" 1I.IIiCfJ'.tIr .-:II.IIbaIIer\.-n. rm
-. ....
II .... JIIIlblianq. ~.II5dd.""
...-....:I"'.q....-s.""'. __
__
............
..;
~~
srnica_JIfOdutt ~..."
""'-'-"\liliiii
.\lllulUie"....., n:... ....
CIftIil
a:-pII'iD. __
......,~

iII-,..

b'IIfidIYMLilt,

.. 1d5

IIIIlIiIIIt..,_.Mbltlll

n~.~i1IJi5

...

UIII."
~

...

...,btCllldl*ll

tIJJ

.ID ... ~

.........

FJH-10
8 of 13

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-10
Page 9 of 13

FIle at the tron' of the

THE

Ratings

& Repol1s

binder. Last week's


SummlUY

Investment Survey

should

& Index

be removed.

May 25.2001
TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS
Industries, in alphabetical order
Stocks, in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

'"

Summary & Index


Page Number
'"

1
2-23
24-25

............

SCREENS
Industries, In order of Timeliness Rank
24
Timely Stocks in Timely Industries
25-26
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 lor Performance)
27-29
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 lor Safely)
30-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Slock.
.
32
Stocks With Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential....
32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
33
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Widest Discounts from Book Value
34

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with eamings

Marl<et Low
1ll-28-ll7
10.6

Marl<et"h

4-22-

19.7

35
35
36

36
37
37

38
38

39

Median Price

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 stocks in the ~pothesized

economic environment 3 to

1.9%
Mar1<et Low
1ll-28-ll7
3.7%

26W8eks

year.; hence

65%
Mar1<et ~h

4-22-

1.6%

26 weeks
Ago
80%

Mar1<etLow
1ll-28-ll7
120%

Mar1<et H'h

4-22-

35%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
. PAGE
PAGE
_.__ ._ _ 192.5 Educationalservices(2) ..__
1515
AO/llS~'"
(17l ...._ _...SI
E_I
E'lu4>n>e1ll(II) .. .._ 1101
M T13nSlJOl\
(14) .._ .._ _.253 ElottricUtiI. (Cen1raQ (H) __ _.05
AppaIeI II) _...._..__.._
.1151 EIottric UtiIiIy (East) (54)
_
151
Auto &Tru<i: 190\ ..- ....--- - ..- 101 EIottric lJIiiIy (West) (47) _ _.1710
Auto Parts(OEM (71) ..__
_IGII
E_
(78~
_.__ 1123
Auto Parts(Replacamanl)(45) _ 1f1 *Enlortlilment 141 .._.._
1H1
Banlll~) ..- ..--- ..-- - ..-.- 2101 Enla!IainnIanI ecII (131 _
1101
Bank Canacilm) (51) _ _._. 151f Emionmallllll (I) _
__
3It
Bank(Midwest)(52)
_ _ 111 FilanclalSvcs. (Div.) (27) ..._ 2132
_raga (AicohoII:1 (21) __
1544 FoodProcossklg (51) .._
_..1481
6aYeraga (SoilOlilk) (37) _._ 1552 FoodWholesalers (5)
_ 1531
8ioEchndogy(311) __
rT3 Fora~nE~
(t1) ._.. 1.
Buifng MaI!ria~ (4f) ._ .._..__ l.5f ForaQnTelearn. (II) ......._...._...714
Cable TV (92) .._.... __ ..
..__ .132 FumJHomeFurnilhilgs (HI __.. III
Ca... .., EnerrIY (f5) ...
.__ 431 G_
Minilg (21)
_..... f21f
CamanI & AQIpoga1eS (77) _
1It Gmcery (311 ._._
.1522
CllamicalrsBasic) (15)
__
1231 HaallllCOra fnfomlatio<l (24)
MZ
*Chamical ""Iild) (&9) ..__ .. 1!lH HorneApplance(71) .. _ _._.122
ChamicalSpacilIy) (ID)
.._411 Hornebuldilg11)
.. .._..HI
~r
& ~raIs
(&2) _ fOM *HoleIIGamilg fO) .._ _
_ fl7l
CoIrl>utet Software & Svco (II) .21&7 Housahold PnxlucIS (13)
__ ... M3
DiversiIiad Co. (50) _..
.. 13$ HumanResources
f210
O!ug (23) __.._ __ __.._ 1231 InclustrialSarvices(331 _
__ ._....
E-Comme"" (35) .._
__._. 140& Infonnatica1
Sarvices( 1)
316

*AdYertisilg(59)

lIIi

The Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend
paying stocks under review

18.0
26 weeks

Stock. With lowest PIE.


.
Stocks With Highest PIEs
Stocks With Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks With Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Eemed on Tolal Capital
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Slocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Slocks

In ~

.__.

1_

I.. lnnee (life) (M) .. _..__ ..

PAGE
.1111

Inslnance{1'nlplCaSllBly)f57)
90
(12) _..__....__._ __ _ 2215
Invostnenl Co. (70) __.._ _.._ ....9A
In_Ill
Co.(F ~n) (11) ..__.. 368

PAGE
Ratolll (11) __.._..__...__.._._ 292
R.UT. (&1\ __....
__.._ 1111
*RIICIllOli>n
----.-.1841
RaslauI3llt 11 ....__ _....._..__ 3D1
Relai 8uidilg SlIPl'II (55) __ _112
ROlaI!SlJocioIl.ilos) (32)
1711
Ratal Sbo ~
1fTi
Saalliios Bn>ktraga (15) _
1391
Semi:allkIcb" (4t) __.._.._ _ fit!
Sami:onlklc:UCap Equi>(4D) 1.
Shoa
1619

431--

=_.._.__
.

MacI*Ie'Y (14) .._ _ _.__ 1301


Manu!.tiousiIlac Vah (&7)
1511
Mdne (11) __.._ _.
216
Madical Senoi:as (4) ..
__ 132
MedicalSupplies (21) __.._
113
_
Fabramg 113)
__ _. 5a
Maca~1 Mililg (Oiv.) (31) _
1220 SlaeI
Q (17) ..
.__ lID
NaturalGas (llistJiI.) (72)
..__.467
S1eaI ntIliJ*dl (74) _.
.1316
NB'JmIIGaDi'teIslfaiI)fl)
_.._ 441 Telearn. E",ipmant (71) ......_ 7!.l
*N_par
1171
....
_ .. 1110 Teillalrn.SaIYicoo (13) _.....
.720
0Ili:a Eq~ & S~
(48)
1131 T_(IO)
.._ 1&&1
*0_
~
(211 _ .. 1145 Thrfl (141 _
__ __
1111
PIlCUgiIg & ConIainar {53
_121
Tre & ~
(15) _" __ " __ '" __ ''' 111
Papa,& ~,,1lIIP_
(75)
107 T_(12) _ _..__ _ _llU
P_18II5nl11gralodl (22) .... .401 T_
(lI) __
.123
*PeIroIeI8ll
. ) f7I
1133 TtUCtinglTl8I!8P.
LeaaiIg (5f) _.._ 217
Pllannacy
ervices(3) .._
_.. m Walef UtiIiIy (9&) ..
.._ ..
.. 1391
"'-III)
....
._.171 Wralass_i1g (41)__ ..__.523
PracEm Instrument(44)
121
'Pubishing (73)
_
1195
*~
ililis _s
_.

pug: 'l'bb Is Part I, the SWIIIIIUY Index. Part Z Is SeIectJcm OpInIon. Part: 3 Is Ratl:np Reporta. Votw.: LVI. No. 38.
~

_~

by VALUE LINE PUBllS .. NG. INC. 220

Ea"2m

Sboet, .....

Vak.

N.Y. 10017-689

Docket

No.
Page

ALUE LINE

THE

Investment

10 of 13

File at the tront of the

Summary

Ratings & Reporls

&

Surveye

P-03-4

# 2 to FJH-10

Workpaper

binder.

Last week's

& Index

Summery

Index

should

be removed.

April 27, 2001


TABLE OF SUMMARY

Summary & Index


Page Number

& INDEX CONTENTS

Industries, in alphabetical order


~~~a~~:I~~~~eb~~~~er

.. ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::"2~=~~

SCREENS
Industries, in order of TimBliness Rank
Timely Stocl<s in Timely Industries
Timely Stocl<s (1 & 2 for PerformBnce)
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highest
to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free FICI'o"i" Cash Generators
Best Performing
Stocks IBSl13 Weeks
Worst Performing
Stocks Jast 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

24
25-26
27-29
3ll-31
32
32
33
33
33
34

a.-

The Median

of Estimated

The Median

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocks under review

Market Low
1ll-28-87
10.6

2Sweeks
Ago
2.3%

Markel ~h

4-2219.7

Market Low
1ll-28-87
3.7%

Median

36
36
37
37
38
38
39

Price

of all 1700 stod<s in the hrv:thesized


economic environment 3 to years hence

75%
Market ~h

4-22-

1.6%

2SWeeks
Ago
95''''

Matllet Low
1ll-28-87
120%

Marl<et

Hr

4-22-

35%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral

in parenthesis
PAGE
M_ing {35} _
1904
AerospacelDelensei'l) _ _.._ 551
AIr Transpolt(12) _
_
253
Awa"" (8) _ _
__ _._.1621
AWl & Trud<183\ ..-----.--. 101
Auto Parts(OEM (17)
_.._.._.. 801
Auto Parts(Replacement)(9)
111
Benk \38) _ _ _._
2101
Benk Canalian) (51)
__.._ 1563
Benk (MKIWosI)(46) .._ _ _._.116
Bewtago (AIcohoIi;) (31) _.._..__ 1526
Beverage(Soft IlMk) (371 _
1534
BiolecMoiogy (331 _.
__ ._ m
Buii:lilg Mamriels(40) _..__ _ 151
Cable TV (84) __....... _..._ _
132
CanadianEnergy(16) _.. _ _ _ 436
Cement& Aggregates1M) .._
8I!l
*ChemicaljBesiclllO\ .._
_ 1231
Chemical Divers~18lI(II)
.._ 1145
Chemical Spacialy) (73) _..
.. 418
tomputer & Per1>/>erals
(70! .._.. 1.
~r
Softwara& Sva 12) .2167
Oiver6ifiedCo. (41) __
1341
*Drug (22)
___ _ _. _ 1239
e.commen:e (63) __.._.._ _ 1401

The Estimated

35

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

2.0%

16.7
2Sweeks
Ago
13.4

of Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS

with eamings

35

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks w~h Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual TotBI Retums
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year DIVidend Yield
High Returns EBmed on Total CapMI
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-util~
Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

In three

partie

after

the

industry

is rank for probable


performance
(next
12 months).
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
EducaIionaI_141
1571 1Il, ooe(pIDp/Ca,ua/ly)(55)
590 *R.HT. (~
_.._ _. __ 1111
Eledrical Equipment(iI)
_ 1001 IIllemet (72) ._ .._ _ _
2215 R_
\ _ _.._.._.
1821
E1ecIricuti. (Cann~ (57)
_ H5 In'_
Co. (IS)
_
H3
Restaurant 1 _
.
301
Electric U1iIiy ~st) (54) __.._..__ 155 111_
Co.(foreign) {III
3611 Retai Buii:lilg Supply(52/
882
EIoclric IJliIiIy osl) (45) __ 1748 M_ry
(58) .._
_. 1301 Retai (Special Liles) (21)
1680
ElocIronics (71 _ _.._.._
1D23 Manu!. HousiIg.llec Voh (77) _ 1543 Relal Stille (30) __ .._.._._.__ .1641
Entertainment HI
_.._.._ 1&1l1 Mafitine (171 .._ _
_
281 SeatrIios Brlltnge (13/ .. _.1316
En'lionmenIBl 10) _
_. 38G Medical Serv
(3) ._ .._.._ _ 832 Sem_ (44) __ _.._ 1052
Filandal S'cs. (Div.\ (21)
2132 Medi:al Supples (20) .... _ _
183
Cap ECI\Ii>(a) ...1090
Food Proc:eosilg(53
_
1'"1 MeIlII fabriallilll (iI) ..__
568 Shoe
1670
Food
(1
_.. 152l1 *MeloIi & MIIl~ (Div.) (26)
1220 Steel leneraQ (u) _.._..
_.580
F ~n EIeclronIE_
(81)
1511 NaturalG~'
.)(56)
461 Steel InIefa10dl 115} __.._. 1381
FOIB~nTelecom.1171..__ _.._ 114 N_
G
. fio<i) (6)
448 Telocom.Eq~
(11)
.753
Fum.lHomeFumlshilg, (10)
815 Newspaper H) .. .._......._ 1881 Telocom.Se!Vicos (11) _..__ ._.720
*GokIISiver M~1ng(321
1211 01Ii:e ~
& SI\lPIios (52)
1138 TexlIe (11) _.. __ ..
.. .. _1837
Grocery (50)
lie
Ollield Serviceso1'qui>.
1124 *Thrll (15} __.._
_.._..__ . 1161
HeallhcaraInbmalion (11) .._ _. H2 Packagi"og8 Container (74 .._ 128 T'. & Rubber(82) _ _...._.. .11&
Home Applance (15) _
_.._ 122 Paper& Foresl Products(IS)
107 Tobacco(13)
..__._.. .. 1570
Homebuikllllg11) .._ _ _
155 Petl1ll,"en ,lntegl1l1edll23)
401 Toietriaa/Co&meli (471
123
Hole~Gamlllg 14)
_ lIST PetroIeI8l\ (ProclJcilg 51
1912 Trud<ing/Tra"'P.Leasilo (41) __.. 2IT
HouseholdProducts(7&)
_.. M3 PharmacySeM:es (2) ..__.._.._ 7"
W .. UlIty (H) ._ _ _ _ 1391
*Human Rl!SOIJrteS1:&4)
_ 1210 Power(43)
_
918 Wr.es Networmg (42) .._ _.. 523
Indu,1Iia1Sel'lioes 2S)
_._.. Preelsiln InstnJmenl(34) _ _ 129
InfonnalionSel'lioes (24)
384 PulIIishing111) ._
_
_ 1874
*Insuraooe (llle) (31)
_
1111 Raload (18)
*_1Il1lis
__ , _.

=..__ .

Ssm_

_leis

(21\ .._

nu. I.

Part 1. the 8ummuy Ii: Index. Part. 2 i. Selection Oplnloa. Part 3 .. RatInfP II RI=poru. Volume LVI. No. 3C.
Published weekly by VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INe. 220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y, 10017..saB1

*'1. ......
NlIIsI*lg. .. AI"IIb~.
(MSSIOIIIS II:REIl 11i5 ~
b.-.,
IfIl... II' -"*t",,~.,
~~
1lIr1lllcll VIb I.ft. "-CIS
~1dIiIIr

b'''FICtlIII-.ill
usat.r'I
. .,

is ~

...

'1lCr1

...a.1ftIlbl ~

_.as ...A

........

~..,
-r IH. THEPulIJ5HUI: IS lOT R[SPOISaE fOR MY ERRORS0lI
npadIad. MOld. ...
wllSlllllb
dilIcWI. ~.'MII
u.. "lI"~Uw
NIIftIg. ...
,......
i111i51fLdc*a
1III'i'Ig...-.n .......
C8IlSlMlIIS"'"
~..., .........
;. ................

IIUtI5
......

...,.

-.10

D lilt ftIiIbIt II1IIi5 ~


~ 1Il.. ~

....

l1li)''''

(1'''''''' ~..,~ ...............

""'IS ~"""'~.""""""8CaUNS

Dockel No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 210 FJH-10
Page 11 of 13

at the
Ralings & Reports

File at the Iront

THE

binder.

Last week's

Summary &. Index


should be removed.

Investment Survey

March 30,2001
Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS


Induslries, in alphabetical order
Siocks, in alphabalical ordar
Noteworthy Rank Changas

1
2-23
24-25

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in Timely Industries
Timely Sloeks (1 & 2 for Performance)
Conservativa Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widesl Discounts from Book Value

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with earnings

24
25-26
27-29
3(}-31

Stocks with Lowes I PIEs


Stocks wtth Highest PIEs .......................................
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3-.to.5-yaarDividandYield
High Returns Earned on Total Capital
Bargain Basemant Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 lor Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-U1i1tty Stocks ..
Highest Growth Slocks

32
32

33
33
33
34

TheMedian

of Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend
paying stocks under review

Market Low

1ll-2U7

Market ~h

4-22
19.7

10.6

26 Weeks
Ag<>

Market Low

10-28-87
3.7%

2.2"10

36
36
37
37

36
36
39

Median Price

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 stocks in the ~pothesized

economic environment 3 to

yearn hence

90%

2.1%

15.4
26 Weeks
Ago
14.0

The Estimated

35
35

Markel ~h

4-22
1.6%

26 Weeks
Ago
85%

Market Low

Markel Hr

10-28-87

4-2235%

120"10

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable perfonnance (next 12 months).
PAGE

PAGE

PAGE

AdI'8!!is<1g /2ol) _.. _._ .._.__


1904 UomIllOlOfl (271 __._ .. . . 14117/",u,"nae{PropiCBsuslyj(55) .__ 5H
*~rospscelOefsllls(11) ..__.._.._.551 Edu.sti",sl So""", (3) ..
lm internet(13) _.... .._ _.. 2215
Air Transpotl(12) _ _..
253 EledricalEqUipment(SolI
10ll'l /nve<b1HIfIl Co. (65)
_ _951
Appa",llll) _..
..__ 1621 EJearic UtI. (CentraQ (Ii) _..__.._.701 investment Co.(FOI1lignI (15)
.. 361
AulD & Truct
--.101 EIoclricUIiIity (East) (57) _....... 155 Machinery (SCI .._
_ _ 1361
Auto PBIt&(OM (II) _
_ 106 EIoclricUlily (WesQ(50) _
1748 Manu!.HDIlS~"
Vell (76) 1543
AulD Psrts(Replacement) liGl _ 111 ElocIronico (47) ..
..__. .. 1021 Mariine (41) __ _
.._.. ZM
Bank(45) _...._..
.._.._._ 2101 EnleI1ainment (13) _ _.._.._._ 1140 Medica15olvi:es ~ _ _.._...._ ... &32
Bank lCenadan) (531
1513 Envionmental It) __ __._ _.360 Medical Supplies
~ __ ._ .__ _. 113
*Bank Midwest) (QI _..__ _.._ 611 Filancial Svcs. (ll~.)(21) __ ..__ .2132 *_1 Febri:ali1g It
..
_.561
Beverage lAk:c11c*) (31)
112li Food Processilg
1411 Meta~ & Mil!!.'9 (DIY. (25)
_... 1215
Ileverago SoftIJlilk) (31) __ ._ 1534 Food Vr1IoIesaIera (I
__.. _1520 Nn.ral ~~48)
__.467
*ll_ndogy (23)
673 FOIlliln EIoctronJElIIert (73) .._. 1550 Na!unII G'
) (7) ..__ 441
Buidilg Ma1eriB~ (34)
_ _151 FllI1llIn Teiealm.(I5)
__ _.711 Newspaper MI
__
1111
Cable iV (71)
.. ..._.._ m FumJHome Fumish~. (H) _.._.. 193 0IIi:e Eq~ & S~
1M) __ 1130
Canadian Eno!yy (15) __ _ 436 GoklISilverMi1ing 131) __
1201 Oili!ld SeMzslEllUi>'I26)
1924
Cement & Awogates (13) ..
.116 Gmcery (52) __..
. 1505 PlICtegilg& Containflr &4) _.._ I2li
Chenical (Basi:) (72) ...... _._.._.. 1226 *Hoalhca'" infonnalion(14) _...._.. 662 Paper& Faest ProdllCls(&1)
. to5
Chemical(lliverafiedj (70) .._..__1145 HIlIIIe AppIance (74)
..__..__.. 122 P_IIII
(Inegratod)(21)
..... 4D9

'"l-..------..

(541- -..- ....

R6lltaursnt

p21 ._.._.._.._

PAGE
.. 301

Rslal Build"ll S!'J'PIY (12\ _ __.. 179


Relai (Spocisl Liles) (3D) .._ _.IA1

RllIBi Stin (21)

._. 1649

Socurlios Ilrot-age (711


13M
$emi:onduCllr (31)

_ID50
Somi:oncilCllr<:ap E~ (HJ _.1011
Shoe (1D) .._..__.__.

__.1I7D

*SteellGenerall ltll
Steel In!elnlod) (~
TelBoom.Eq~
TeIBoom.SeMcos
Textie (67]

._ _

!II

_.1311

49)

.._ 762
.727
1137

ThIIIII)) __
._._ 1161
Tre & Rubber (10) __ ..__ ..__ ._ .... 116

T~
..__.._ .._..__1m
T'
. (511
'" &20
Trud<inglTransp.
Loasilg (G/ _.._ 217
WIIlIr lJtiIy (17)
... 1311
Chemical (Specialy) (71) _..... _..411 HllIIIebuidilg (1) ._ ..__ ... 1141,164 PeIroloLm (J'rodu<:i1g) (5)
.._ 1112 Willies. NOIWcrkilg (43) _..
523
Computer & P~ralI
(61) __..IOM HcMllGamilg (19) __
._ 1&57 ProcisilnInstnJment(311_.._.. 129
~
Software & Sa (I) 2167 Household ProdllCls(75)
NO PubIisIliltlfll) ..
__ _.1874
D~o"ified Co. (441
._.
1349 industrialServices 133) .._ __ _.... Ratoad (17) _.._
212
Drug (16) ..__..
1235 Infomlatia> Services /20)
384 R.UT. (17) _..
__ _ 117.
Drugstore(4)
..
._.._ _&01 Insurance(life) (40) ..__ _ 1195 Recreallln(35) _
_
_ 1&21
in \lis _s
__

*_

In three: parts: ndIIb Put I, the Summary Index. Part ZI. SeIecdon a Oplnh... Part 3 iii Radnp a Reports. Volume LVI.No. 30.
Pt.dshed weekty by VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 EllS' 04200Sln!tIt, New Yak, N.Y. 10017-5891

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-10
Page 12 of13

Part J
'.

THE

File at the front of the

ALUE LINE

Summary
&

binder. Last week's

Investment Survey

Index

should be removed.

Ratings

& Repot1s

Summary

'" Inde}(

February 23,2001
TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

Industries, in alphabetical order


Stocks, in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

2-23
24-25

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Timaly Stocks in Timely Industries
Timaly Stocks (1 & 2 for pertormancel
Consarvative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safely
Highest Dividand Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free Flow'" Cash Generators
Bast Parforming Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

3~31

32
32
33
33
33

36

37
37
36
36
39

34

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

The Estimated Median Price

DIVIDEND YIELDS

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocks under review

16.4

1.9%

26 Weeks Marllet Low Marllet ~h


4-2216-28-87
Ago
10.6
19.7
14.1

26 Weeks Marllel Low Marllet ~h


4-2216-26-87
3.7%
1.6%
~

of all 1700 stocks in the h~pothesized


economic environment 3 to years hence

650/0
26 Weeks Marllet Low Marllel H~h
16-28-87
4-22Ago
120"10
3511J.
80"10

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral
*Ad'lertising (35)

in parenthesis

after the industry

AAGE

is rank for probable

AAGE

performance

AAGE

_.._
1104 Educatiorol Serviceo (2)
_. 1m
Investment Co. (61) __ _
911
AerospaoOl1lefens.(II) .._..__._ .. 551 EledricalEijui>me<rt(42) _ __ 1001 ~v_
Co.(Foreign) (83) _ 311
Ai' Tmnspol\ (77)
..
.. _.211 E_
Uli. (cennJ) (41) _..__.7ot Ma<:1ineIy (57) _.._....__.._._..__.1301
AppOlll (22)
.._.. _.._ ..__...... _IU1 Eledric UtiIily (East) (55)
__ 154 Manuf.Housilg.'lec Veh (II) _... 1543
AotlI &T11JCI<
fot E_ UIiIily (Wesl) (Sf)
17" Martine (31) _..
..__._ _ .._ 2M
Auto Parll (oat) In)
_106 EIectr1lfIics
lit!
Medi:al SeIYi:os ~
.._ __ 632
AJI1l Palls (RBpIacament) 192)
111 *Ent.""inment 11) ....... .._._.. 1140 Med''''1 Suppies 11) ..- ..- -- 183
Bank (31)
..... _._.
__.2111 En>ioomenlal 6) _.._._ ..... _ .._. 374 MellI Fabli:a1ilg
SfI
Bani (Canadan) (41)
1543 F~andal Svcs. (DiY.) 121)
.2134 Molal; & M~ (DiY. (43)
1215
BanI (Mi:IwestJ (41) _
_ 115 Food _119 (H) __ _ _.. 1441 H
I G~.)
(47) _
4t7
BeveI89' (AIc:ohoII:) (12) ... _.._.. 1521 Food Wholesalers (10)
_
1520 NaIllmlG
lied) (5) __ _ 441
BeveraQll (Sol DliJk) (38)
1534 Forei1n ElecIronIEnlertn
(IS)
I!5C1"Newspaper II) __.._.._..
1111
BUidilg Maleria. (38) .. .._.._.. 151 F~n TeIeoom. (93) ...... __ _ 7M 0IIic0 Equip & S~
(II)
.1130
Coble 1V(67) _........ _.....
..__.121 FumJHomeFumilhllga(69)
__ U3 -0_ SlrvireIIElIUi>. (21)
.. 1824
Canadilal Energy (141 _..
4!4 GotlISiIver Mililg (54) _..
_ 1.
PllCtalltl!l& Contailer (Ml
....121
Coment & Aggregates (17) ._
IH G""*Y (12)
......_..
1515 Paper 1. Fcn&lPnxludill)
.105
CIleIIic:aI
(64) ....
.._ 122t1 HeaJIhcanI J_ 123)
_.. 113 PelnJletm (InlegIJIed)
...._ 409
*Chemical iverslied) (63)
1945 Home Appiance (10) _.... _
_.. 122 "PeIrde1l1l (1'raiJci1g) 4) ..
1912
Chemical Specialty) (16) ..__ __ 4U HomebtJildilg
1149, 114 P..... iJn Insfnllllen!(24) ..__..__.. 129
CqulIr & P~1lI8ll (51) _.._ 1094 *tfolJll'Gam~gIf) _...._... _.._ 1157 PubislliIV.(121
..__. 1174
Cc!rI>ut9r Software & Svcs (I) _.2171 Household PnxlucIs(10)
NO Raituall 1341 _......__.._.__.._ _. 302
DivonifiId Co. 141) _ _...._ _ 1341 IndumaJ SeIYiaIo f4ll)
_
_.. R.E.J.T. /73/ __..
.
_ 1171
DnIg (1S) .. ..
1135 Insum"",(life) 1211 __
1115 "Reaea1iln (37) __ _._ _.._ 1121
Drugstore (11)
_ _
101 In'lWanco(propiCasUaItyI(52)
511 Re,tllnnt (21)
_.._.._ __ 311
E-Commen:e (17) _ __.._ .._. 14117 Intemel (II) .. ....... _......._.._.. 2222 Rellil Buidilg SlJIIPII(16)
_.. 171

1"1-"-"-"---"--'

35
35
36

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- 10 5-year Dividend Yiald
High Raturns Earned on Total Capital
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utilily Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with earnings

24
25-26
27-29

I3G1---..-- ...._-

II)

._.

I ",_",_
_

(next

12 months).

AAGE

R.," (Spedallines) (33) _.._ 1610


Relei Slixe (44)
._ _.1141
8ealrlies Brollnge (45) _.. . I.
Semi:ancU:D'l27J __.._.__ ..._.. 1050
Sem~<:ap Eq~(53/ _. 1016
SIlOll~}
._.1571
Steel
571
SIeeI
111)
.._.1311
TelIIcom. Eq~
(50)
.. 712
t.lealm. SeIYi:os (12) ..
_ 727
T8XIie~
_1137
TlvIlII
._.
. 1161
Tn I ubber(ll)
.._.116
Tolaca> Ill} .. ...
...._1570
toleDlsA::osmeti (511 _.. ... 120
Truc:li9Tmnsp.leasilg (32) __.. 275
W" lJIiIy (14)
.._ 1311
Wireless NitWoiIilg (26)
.. 522

=-m .._._..

.~

~ !lis

_0-.

la t:lvft parts: 'ibis Is Part 1, the Summary. Inda. Part Z t. Seledlca ,. Oplnlon. Part , Is IbIUnp a Reports. Vohune LVI.No. Z5.
PlJltIshed weekly by VALUE UNE PUBUSHING, INC. 220 East .. 2nd sare.t. New York, N.Y. 10017..ses1

Docket No. P-D3-4


Workpaper # 2 to FJH-1D
Page 13 of 13

Ria at the front of the


Ratings & RfJporls
binder. Last week's
Summary & Index
should be removed.

THE
Investment Survey

January 26, 2001


Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS


Industries, in alphabetical
orde,
Stocks, in alphabetical
orde,
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
2-23
24-25

'"

SCREENS
Industries, In orde, of Trmeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in TImely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 210, performancel
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 210, Safely
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Siocks with Highest 3- 10 5-year Price Polential
Bi9gest "'F,ee Flow" Cash Generators
Best Pertonning
Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Perfonning
Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Velue

The Median

of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

of all stocks

with earnings

24
25-26
27-29
30-31
32
32
33
33
33
34

The Median

Market Low
1()'28-87
10.6

of Estimated

The Estimated

04-22-

19.7

Price

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying slocks under review

of all 1700 stocks in lhe hrv:lheSized


economic environment 3 to years hence

2.0%
Market ~h

Median

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

DIVIDEND YIELDS

15.7
26 Weeks
Ago
13.5

StocI<s with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-yea, Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capital
Bargain Basemenl Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 fo' Perfonnance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Slocks
..

26 Weeks
Ago
2.3''''

Market Low
111-28-87
3.7'10

70%
Markel ~h

4-22-

26 Weeks
Ago

1.6%

85%

Market Low Market ~


111-28-87
4-22
120%
35%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
Advertising 137)
_
_ 11101 Educa1ionalSeMcos (~
1571 inves1molllCo. (47) _
__
951 Rete! (Spec:lalLiles) 13G)
1679
AerospacOnlefe",e(I)
551 ElectricalEquipment(
1001 ",'-1lI
Co.(Foreign) (111 _.. 311 Rotai Stin (13)
._ .. _ 1641
At TranspoI\(761 __
.. 261 Eledric Uli.(CenlrllQ l~ )
.._. 701 Machilery (54)
..
.. 1301 Seariies llIllI<orage (34) __
13.
Apparel(35)
__
.. 1121 Eledric Utilly {East)(44)
__.._ 154 MaIKlf. HousinglRecVeh (14) _ 1543 Somi:onduc:*>r (21) .._..
1050
AulD &Truli (l3j
101 EIedric lJtiIly~"Q (57)
.. 1744 Mariline (I)
.. _
291 Semi:on<kJcb" Cap Eq~ (53) 1016
AulD Perla(06.1 (10)
f06 EIecIronics (2
_
1021
Servicas ~I _
132 S!Ioe
1611
AulD Pe'" (Replacement)(92)
III
Entertainment 5) _
11411 Medical Suppies li)
113 S1eel GenenlQ (17) __ __
579
Bank143)
_
.. 2101 Envionmenlal (17) .._
_ 374 Molal febricating II
_
517 SIHI In\ogrIlIld) III) ._
_.. 1316
(Censdian)(411 __ _
1564 FRmciel SVcs. (DiY.) (201 _..__.2114 _
& M~ (DiY., (501 _
1215 Telearn. E~
(52)
_.. 71l
Bank(Midwest)(31)
_ _
613 Food Processing (39)
_. llel
N
I Gas (llis1ri>.) (40)
467 Telecom.Services (15) .. .._ 777
8e'Ierage(AIcohoIi:) (15)
Im
Food WhoIesaIe1ll (19) __
151. Natural Ges(Diversiied)(5)
441 Textile(71) _._
__ __
_ 1137
IlevenIge (SolI Drinlcl/U)
.._ 1333 Forvvn Elet:IroIIIEnleltll(e) _ 1551 Newspaper (HI
_ __
1&15 *TIvII (131 _
_ 1161
Building M_~ (Ii)
.131 Forer~eIecom. (91) ..__..
716 0Ifl:e ~
&
(77)
1130 roo & Rubber (74) __ _ _ _ 116
CebIe 1V (11) _
_ _
sa
Fum
Fum~hings(64)
_
0_
SIIrIicesIE~. (21)
191. Tobacco(7) _ _.. .. _
1571
Censdian EneJpy f12)
_ 431 *GotIISMr Mining(55)
__ 1201 Psd<agilg & CooIailer (N) _
126 T~
(Il)
820
Cemenl& Aggregates(19) _
IM
Grocery (III
_ 1515 Paper& FlRSl Producls(73) _ 1105 TruckinglTransp.leasing(33)
275
*Chemical(Bas~) (69)
..__ 1226 Healhcare fn1ormalion (24) ........ 113 ~
Ilnlogl8lld~2111 ..
.4G9 Wilier ~
1312
Chemical(llIversilied)/51)
_ 1141 Home Applanca (II) _
122 Petroleum PIlIlIJcing 4)
1101 Wooless
. (11) _.._
522
Chemical(Specialy)(7D) _.._
411 Homebuilding 11)
1149,814 Precisi:>nIn_nt
129
Computer& Pe~ra~ (le) __ 1014 HDlellGemilg 16) _..
1155 PUb$'
{171 __
1171
ComplerSoftware& SVcs (t4) . 2171 Hou.. ho~ Producls(591
940 Raitoad 32) _.._
302
Di'IersIfIod Co. (36)
1341 1ndus1ria1 Services (311
*R.E.J.T.
..._
1178
"Il1ll!l(lD)
..
1235 lnsurance (tie) 123) __ __ _.1195 ROCI881iln
1111
Drugsl
(21)
101 InslKOnca(l'ropICasually)(411
51. Restaurant(22
311
E-Comme"" H
1412 Intemet(51)
2222 Relal BUid""l Supp~(60)
17.
._
in lI1is
editi:>n.

Medical

{II .._.. _. __

s~

Il---'''--'''-''

_s

In three para: 'ibis Is Part 1. the Swnmary &: Indo. Part 2 Is Selec:don &: OplnIcn Pan: 3 Is Radnp ... Reports. Volume LVI. No. 2L
Published weekly by VALUE LINE PUBUSHlNG, INC. 220 EBsI42nd streeI. New Yak, N.Y. 10017-5891

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-10
Page 1 of 13

Date of
Value Ul)e
Summary
& Index
Spot December 29, 2000
1December29,2oo0
2 November 24, 2000
3 October 27, 2000
4 September 29, 2000
5 August 25, 2000
6 July 28, 2000
7 June 30, 2000
8 May 26, 2000
9 April 26, 2000
10 March 31, 2000
11 February 25, 2000
12 January 26, 2000

Est. Medial)
Al)nual
Appreciation
Potential

Est. Median
Dividend
Yield

Est. Median
Annual
Total
Return

90%
90%
60%
95%
65%
60%
65%
90%
65%
90%
65%
85%
70%

17.41%
17.41%
15.63%
16.17%
16.63%
15.63%
16.63%
17.41%
16.63%
17.41%
16.63%
16.63%
14.19%

2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.30%
2.20%
2.20%
2.30%
2.20%
2.10%
2.20%
2.30%
2.30%
2.10%

19.61%
19.61%
16.03%
20.47%
16.63%
16.03%
16.93%
19.61%
16.73%
19.61%
16.93%
16.93%
16.29%

12-Mo. Avg.

65%

16.63%

2.22%

18.85%

6-Mo. Avg.

66%

16.76%

2.23%

19.01%

3-Mo. Avg.

66%

17.10%

2.23%

19.33%

Spot

90%

17.41%

2.20%

19.61%

Average

67%

16.94%

2.22%

19.16%

Source of fl)fo""alion:

Est. Medial)
Appreciation
Potel)tial
3-5 Yrs. Hence

Value Line Investment Survey, Summary & Index, Various dates

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-10
Page 2 of 13
File 8t the front of the

Ratings & Rspotts


binder. Lasl week's
SummaI)' & Index
should be removed.

THE
Investment Survey

December 29, 2000


Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS


Industries, in alphabetical order
Stocks, in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
2-23
24-25

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in Timely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
Conservative Siocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
Highest Dividend Yielding Siocks
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-yeer Price Potential
Biggesl "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest DisDOunts from Book Value

Slocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks wfth Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks wfth Highest 3-10 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capftal
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Siocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non.utilfty Stocks
Highast Growth Stocks

33
33

35

35
36
36
37
37
38

38
39

34

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

The Estimated Median Price

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

DIVIDEND YIELDS

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

paying stocks under review

of all 1700 stodcs in !he h~ized


economic environment 3 to years hence

of all stocks with eamings

24
25-26
27-29
30-31
32
32
33

(next 12 months) of all dividend

2.2%

14.4
26 Weeks
Ago
13.3

Marl<e1Low
1(1.28-87
10.6

Marl<.t ~h

4-22-

19.7

26 Weeks
Ago

2.2%

Marl<etLow
10-28-87
3.7%

900/0
Marl<et~h

26 Weeks

1.6%

4-22-

Marl<etLow Marl<etHr
10-28-87
4-22120%
35%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
Advertising (351 ._

PAGE

PAGE

PAGE

1!lO1 Educational SeMces (31


1m
I""",*"",,t Co. (5S)
K5
A.... pacelDelons. (7)
__ . 551 EloclricalEquipment("I _. __ fOll1 111._1
Co.(FDnlignl (101
311
,.. TranspCll1lU)

.281 Elodric lJtiIICen1ra9IU) ._ . _ 701 _ry


1M)
...._ .. .1301
AppareII36)
__._. .._1&21 E1ecIrIc lJtiIiIy lEast) 1(7) __
154 Manuf. HousiIgollec V.h (10)
1541
AlIto & Trua (141
__ _. 101 EloctricU1iIly (Westl (91 _ _. lT44 Marline flGl
._ _._
211
AlIto Pall> (011) (12) - . ---. IN
-In)
-.---lD21 "Modi:o/ w)
-...
83l
AlIto Pa"" (Replacement) (n) _111 Enter1a~mont(12) _ _
1841 Medical SUppies 11\ _
_.._.183
6anl<(57) __.. _ _.._._ 2101 Envionmonlal (15) _.._ __..,__ 3TC 'Melal Fabric:atilg 4
.56T
6anll (CoIladan)/3Il _
_.._1584 Filallcial Sv<s.tD".) 121) .._
21st _~
& 1Ii!>q tD". (58) _
1m

PAGE

Relal (Special lines) (II) __ _. 1171


RelallSIin (131 _....__. _
li41
SecurIIoo 8rokerIlIe (22) _
13N
~
(10)
.. ._.1051
SoIni>onci.alr Cap ~
(40) _.I01T
SIlOI
"Steal GenonI) III) _.. __
m

e-~-------._.,.

SIIef
Ilit) _._
I3M
T......
qui>mMIlS1) _.
TN
'6ant (Midwest) (54!"
...615 FoodPlllCllSSilg152) ._ _1461 N9lnlI1l .. (llistrII.)(46) ____..467 T...... -Ilil
..730
Ileveraga (_)
(12) ......._.. 1525 Food~
(21) __'''_'''_ 1518 Nallral Gas(OlversI'iod)(S) ... 441 Teldilo(11) __
__ 1137
Ileveraga (Sot 0Iilk) (31) ._ .._. In!
Foreign EilIcIroIl'EnIlI (44) __ 1551 ~
(II) _.
.... _ 1185 TIvII (33)

__ .. 1111
Buidilg MaIo!ials (II)
851 FlJl89I To""""'- (17) _._
_ 7t1 Ofti:e Equ~& Sl.\lllliol~l _ .. 1133 Tn & RubI>or (111
115
Coble 1V ~..... -.--- ..-- . 131 Fum.lHome Fumishilg. (15) __..
OllieldS~.
_... _1111 Tol8cco(I)
..
1571
Conadiil1
113) _.._. __431 GatlISiIver Mili1g (51/
I2M PactaoiIII& ConIlliner (
.._._ .. 133 T~
(14)
__.122
Cement & Aggregates \91) .._
1M Grocery (10) _._ __._
1515 P.per l Fcrest Produds (16)
tlO TfllCkilg/Transp.l.easi1g (50) . _ 275
CherricalEi:) (15) __..... __ 1225 "HeallllcareIntlrmatioo125) _
113 P_
(Inlogralod~1211 __ _.401 W... U*y (17) _. __
1m
Chemi:ol . lied) (53/ _ _ lNl
Homo Applance (IS)
_
122 Pe!JtIIe<m (PrtIIiIciIg (4) _,,_,,_.tlOl Wi8lasa NIItwottiIg (11) _ _!22
Chemi:B1Specialy)'II)
481 Homebuldilg
PIOCisiln 1_
23)
_ 121
Computer & POfiINnIIs (34) _ 1095 HoleUGamilg I
_.._.
_ 1855 Pubishilg (11/ _
_
lITI
Co!1lpllferSoftware& S'IllI (141 .2171 HousefIoId Produd! (13) .._
NT Ratoal (221
_
_
HZ
DiverIified Co. Ill)
__ _1346 Indusllial SeMces (30)
_.. R.UT. (181 _
_
lIra
Drug (6) __
_
__._ 1234 InsuranceIlile)(24) .._
lft3 Recreatiln
-.1121
~
(37) .._.._
_.._ _.. 811 "Insurance(PloplCasua1ly1
(45) __ .. !II R_
(26
_.._ _
_ 311
E-eommerco H .._.
1412 Internet141) ..
._ . _.._.2222
Re1aJBuillilg Supply(70) _._. __812
._
i111is _.
diln.

I.

III .__._.._ .

431--

In three pIlIU: 1bta ta Part I, the Summary"


lndl:1. Part 21. Selection .. Opinion. Part: 3la Rarlnp. Reporta. Volume LVI. No. 17
..... __
Iy by VALUE UNE PUBLISHING.INC. 220 eat 42nd -.
_
York, N.Y. '0017'-'

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-10
Page 3 of 13

e THE

File a1 lhe 1ront of the

Summary

Ralings

&

& Reports

binder. Lasl week's


Summary & Index
should be removed.

Index

November 24,2000
TABLE OF SUMMARY

Summary & Index


Page Number

& INDEX CONTENTS

Industries, in alphabetical
order
Stocl<s, in alphabetical
order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
223
24

SCREENS
Industries,

in order

of

Timeliness

Rank

Stocks with Lowest Pies


Stocks with Highest Pies
Slocl<s with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highe.t So to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total CapKal
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Perlormance)
Highest Dividend Yielding NonutilKy Stocks .
Highest Growth Stocks
......................

24

Timely Stocks in TImely Industrie.


25-26
Timely Stocl<s (1 & 2 for Perlormance)
2729
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
3D-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Stocl<s with Highest So to 5-year Price Potential
32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
'" 33
Best Perlorming Stock. last 13 Weeks
'"
33
Worst Perlorming Stocks last 13 Weeks ............... 33
Widest Discounts from Book Value
34

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with eamings

26 Weeks
Ago
14.3

Market Low
1G-21Hl7
10.6

economic environment 3 to

stoc\(s under review

Market ~h
4-22
19.7

26 Weeks

:Y%

Market Low
1G-21Hl7

3.7%

Price

yealS hence

80%

2.2%

14.4

Median

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 stocks in the hr.:lhesized

DIIDEND YIELDS
(next 1 months) of all dividend
paying

The Estimated

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

26 Weeks

Market~h
4-22
1.&%

Market Low Market H~


111-28-87
4-22
12O'A.
35%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
'AdvBJ1islng(33)
_1101
Aerospacdlefllnso (19) ......... 551
At Transport(961 _._ _
_. ~1
Apparel (31) _
_ .._., 1121
AIlto &TNd< (791
101

AIlto PaTll (OEM (781 _............. 101


hJJJ PatlI (Ropiaalmont)(92/ .. , 111
Bank147) _ __ __ ._.2101
Bank Cenadianj(13)
15M
Bank Mi!woslj(S7) ._ ..._._
S17
Baverago (AialhoIic) 1221 ...... 1525
Beverage (SoIl DrInk)(35) . 1533
Buililng MaBiaIs (7d) .._ 151

CebloTV(17) __.. _._ ..... 131


Ce_
Energy (15) ............. 435
Cement& All'1egates (II) ..__ 190
Chemi:al (Best) (13) ...... __.. 1m
'Chemical {llivelliJllCl) (44)
1941

PAGE
PAGE
EdueatioNliSorvices12) ._ .._... 1571 InvestmentCo. 145) ......... _ H5
Eleclri:alEqui>ment(ii) ..........1001 InvestmentCo.(FDn!~n)(72) .... 311
Eledric Util. (Centra~(411 .. _ 701 Maclinert (921
13G1
EJod1lc U1iIly (East) (42) .... 154 Mallllf. H<>JsIng.!loc Veil fll) ... 1543
Eledric IJIiiy (West) (54) ..... 1744 MarOne (121 ..................... 295
Elodronics III ..................... 1121 t.Iodical5olvical ~)
_. _ 634
"Enletlalnmenlll2j ._
IIo1D MadicalSupplies III
114
EnWoNnental
_.374 Metal Fabricallng 10) ._ ... _..... 567
Flnordal Sva. (Div.) (11) ....... 2131 Mlllak & MIn!!9 (Div.)~) ... 1214
Food Procassilg (521 ............ 1"1
Na~1 Gas (lli&triI.I(!
_ __ . "'
FoodWhoie&aIeII (11) .......... 1519 NallJralGas(DivMfiocl) 51 ........ 447
Foreiln E~nlBItn
(43) _ 1551 N paper (H) _................. 1115
FDn!~nTelecllm.l77l ...._....... 7H Ob Equ\>& S~
(17) ..... 1133
FumJHoma FlI!"isbilg. (53) ... 111 00IfieId~.
1119
120
GoI:IISiver M~"'!I(65) ......_....1204 Paliag"'!l & Conlin. (II ......933
Grocery(H) .._.._ _..... 1S05 Paper & Fcmt PnxlUds (69)
910
Healhca .. Intmnafon (51) .... HI
Petroleum (In5J
132) _. 4ft
Homo Appiance (14) _
_
122 'Pe!roIelm (ProdutiIg 4) .._
1909
Homebuillf"'!l(7)
_ . HI
Preci&iJnInstrument24) _.... 129
"HoleVGamlng191_...................1155 *Publishilg (56) ... _
1171

__
._
.

Chemical(Sper:ilIly)(A) ....__ 419


CompWu' & P8l\>hBrals 121) "_" 1095
CoIIlp<ller SaIlwa/O & Svcs (21) . 2169 HouoeholdP_
(61) ........ N7 Ratoad (13) ........................301
IJNon;ifiod Co. 149) .. _....._.. 1341 Industr'elServices131) .. _............
R.E.I.T. (7~ ..................._.._.... 1178
Drug (10) .. _...... _ .._.... 1234 Insurance(l.iIe) 1231 .._
1193 "ReaeatiJn 4Oj ........ _
1821
Drugstore (50)
_.. 101 Il1Ilillln<:o(f'rop'Cesually)(41) .... 5tO Restaurant 34 _.. _.._... _...... 310
E-COml1l8/Q!
l-I
_
1412 I"tame! (lI) .............. _........... 2219 Re4lli Building Supp~(601)........ IIZ

PAGE

Rotai (Speclllliles) (14) ... 1m

Slilre (79)

_..........._..... 1149
l'1 _.._. 1399
Semi:ondoJc:D (1) _.. _._._ 1051
Sem~
Equ\>(27) . 11l17
Re4lli

SealrIios BroI:""'li"

cap

Shoo (29) ._........ 1669


StoaI (=151
_...._
m
StBeI (
I (90) _.
.1316
TeIM:om.Equ~1 (37) __._ 794
ToB:om. S
(7il .._
730

T_ (74)

1637

ThrIl (31) ._
_.... 1161
Tie & Rubber (71) .... _
116
T~
(3D) .. :.. _
1571
T~
(511 ......_ 122 .
Trud<inglTral1lp.leasilg (59) .... 274
WatIlrlJtIly (II) ... _.__ .. 1392
W_s
_Ing 117) .._........ 525

'_In !his

_s_.

In three pans: 'n1b Is Part 1. the SUUIIIWY .. lndc:JL Part Z i. Sekctlon .. OpinIon. Part S Is Rat:lnp R.eporu. Volwne LVL No. 12f\Itl(ished W88Idy by VALUE UNE PUBUSHING, INC. 220 ast.2nd Streel. New yortt, N.Y. 10017-5891

Docket
No. P03-4
Workpaper
# 3 10 FJH-10
Page 4 of 13

.::r-HE'~~~/:.1ALUELINE

File at the front of the


Ratings & Reports
binder. Last week's
SummaI}' & Index
should be removed.

Investment Survey

October 27, 2000


TABLE OF SUMMARY

& INDEX CONTENTS

Industries, in alphabetical order


Stocks. in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

Summary
Page

& Index
Number

_......................................................................

1
2-23
24-25

SCREENS
Industries. In order of TImeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in TImely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Pertarmance)
Conservative Slocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
Highest Dividend Yielding Slocks
Stocks whh Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free Flaw" Cash Generators
Best Perfonning Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value ..

24
25-26
27-29
3~1

32
32

33
33
33
34

36
36
37
37

38
38
39

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

The Estimated Median Price

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 s1od<sin the ~pothesized

paying stocks under review

26 Weeks
At;}o
14.0

Marl<etLow
lG-28-ll7
10.6

Marl<et~h

4-22.

19.7

in parenthesis
PAGE

after

26 Weeks Marl<e1Low
10.28-87
Ago
3.710
2.2%

the industry

Marllel~h

4-22-

1.6%

26 Weeks
At;}o

90%

-- ..-..- _

tic)

In three puU:

III

nus Is Pan

_..

Hi&:,

Marl<et Low Marl<et


10-28-87
4-22120%
35"k

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

for probable

performance
PAGE

1M3 EIeclricaI Equipment (33)


1001 Investment Co.(Foreign)(Ill) _ 311
~ns.(18)
_.551 Electric 1JIiI. (Cenh~(44) _ _ 701 IoIachinery (191 _
_ _. 13111
M T.. nSlJOll(67)
_ _ __ 2111 ElectricUtilly (East) ($4) _ _.. 154 IoIanuf. Housing.lIoc V.h 19D)
1547
Apparel (45)
_ _
_.. 1U1 EIedric UIiIiy (Wast) (38)
me IIaIiine (I') _ _._ _ _ 2H
Auto & Trud< (II)
- -----. 101 EIeQroni:s (71 -- ... --- ..
_ 1121 5Blvi:os WI .. ..
. &34
AIJID Parts lOM) (II) .._ _.._.._1lI6 E_~ment
(611 - 1841 Medical SuPllios '~ ..-. 184
AulD Parts Replacement) (12)
111 En'lironmenlal12()
374 Malal Fabricalilg
_ 517
Bank
2101 Filancial Svcs. (DiY.) (20)
2131 *Metail & MiIiI>iI(DiY. (47)
_.1214
Bank CMalian) (14)
__.._ 1518 Food P1DresSilg (63)
1181 NaliraI Ga~.)
f55) _.._. 4S7
Bank (Mm-t) (50)
_
BI7 Food Wholesalers (12) .._.._
1522 Na1IIIatG. . iiad) (1)
_.. 447
sal'8raga (AlcohoIi:) (30)
1521 Foreign E~
(411 _ lW
_paP"' Ill}
.__.._ 1817
sa
lIO(5011Drink)(46)
1537 Foreign Telecom. (lI)
781 Ofti:o Equip & S~
(II)
1133
Sulldilg M3Ioriail (73)
_. __ .. 851 Fum./Homo Fumi;hilg> (70/
IN OIfM! ~quil.
(131
1823
Coble TV (SlI) __
._ _ 831 *GoIdISi1I1!r Mili>g (&I) _.._ _ 1204 Packagilg & CoIIIainer (11
833
Canadian Ene!gy 1231 ....__
435 Grocery (121 .._..... _.._...__ _. 1808 Papal l Faest P_
(72)
11.
cement l AWegat .. (71) _.._.190 Heallhcara Informalion(741 _.. 161 PUnIogI3Ed)1$ __ 401
*ChelTical
(14) _.
122.! Home Appiance (81)
__ .122 Patmleun lProduciIlI) I _. .1110
Chemical
1'Iers1'1Ild)(43) _
1145 Homebuldilg
_1&1 _I_nt
) _
121
Chemical SIlOCiaIIYI (77J __ __ 419 HotaIIGamilg Ii)
_....__ __ 1157 Pubishing (II)
.._
.1173
~
l P./iPIa.... (21) __ lD1! H__
f57) _
NI
(SI) _.
__.
_ 301
Computar Soflwara l S", (22) . 2119 Induml Sorvices (32) .._ _.......... *R.EU.(521 ..... __.. .._
_ 1171
lJiversitild Co. (IC) _
_._.. 1341 *Insurance (Lire) (21) .: _
lit!
Roaealiln {42\_
_ _
1121
*DnJg (tl) _.... _._._
1234 Insu.. nce(ProplCasualyJ (71)
!IO RastalJ8nt (37 ..
.._._ __310
OnJostore (3!) _.._ _._
801 Internet (311 _
_._ 2218 Relai &lldillI Supplj (65) _ 182
Educalillla' S.rvices (3) _._ 1!12 Investment Co. (53) _.. ._.. 118 Ralai (SpacEI Liles) (25) _ 1110

1"1

is rank
PAGE

years hence

95%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL


AdvOf1ising (17) _

economic environment 3 to

2.3%

13.4

Numeral

35

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with earnings

35

Stocks whh Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3-to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Relurns Earned on Tollli capital
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Slocks (5 for Perfonnance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-ulilhy Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

(next

12 months).
PAGE

__ mo
5ealrlios BrolIlOlgll (5) _ __. 1401
Sema.-(Il
__ 1051
~
Cap Eq"" (II
1117
Shoe~) .. __ _.. . 11711
Stool
m
Steel
5) "_""_'''''' 1311
T_.
Eq~
(21)
784
T_. SeM<os (&II .. _ __. 730
TaxIlo (71) _ _ _
__ 1637
*TJrII (38} _ ..
_..
1161
Tre & Rubber (13) _ _._
116
T=.,~
_. _
I57S
T'
. 141) _
_ 122
TIlJckiIWT_. Leaoilg (!II ..__ 274
UIiIy (82) ..... _...... _ .... 1314
Wreles. NetwOIU1g (1l) __
!25
Rotal StOlll (78)

=:Jrn ___
.__.

W.'"

Ra_

*Reviawod ~ !his _,

__

1. the Swnmuy &: lndez. PIU1 2 .. SeJecdon ... Op:lrdOILParI: 3 :Is Radnp Repon:I:. \IoIume LVI. No. I.
F\tlII:shed weekly by VALUE LINE PUBUSHING, INC. 220 Easl42nd Street. New York, N.Y. 10011-5891

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-10
Page 5 of 13

File at the front of the


Ratings & Reports
binder. las! week's
Summary & Index
should be removed.

Summary

THE

&

Investment Survey-

Index

September 29, 2000


TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

Industries, in alphabetical
order
Stocks. in alphabetical
order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
2-23
24-25

SCREENS
Industrie., in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in Timely Industries
Timely Stocl<s (1 & 2 for Perfonnance)
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weaks
Worst Performing Stocks lasl 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

The Median of Estimated


PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

32
32
33
33
33
34

26 Weeks
Ago

13.6

Market Low
1G-28-87
10.6

The Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocks under review

Market ~h

4-22-

26 Weeks
Ago

19.7

2.3"1.

Markel Low
10-28-87
3.7%

Price

of all 1700 stod<s in the ~lhesized


economic environment 3 to years hence

85%
Market ~h

26 Weeks

4-22

Ago

1.6%

85%

Markel Low
10-28-87
120%

Markel H~

4-2235%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
_ing ll)
_.._ 1903 ElectricalEquipment(29)
_.. 11101 In'OIIllIIentCo.{FoIeign)(H) _ 311
All/lISpocaI)elense (22) _
_. 551 EJecbicUIil. (Cenn9IU) .._
711 Madli>e1y (611 __..__...._....._ 1301
~ T .. nsport(141 ._ ..
.__ Hl
EIedric U1iily (East) (61) ..__.._.._ 114 Manu!. Housilg,fioc Veh (H)
1547
Apparel (42)
.
1121 EIedric Ualily (Worl) (015) _
ml
Matiline (21)
__ .._..._.. .._.. 215
AWl & Trua (Ill _.
__101 Eledronics(5)
_ _.._.. 1011 *MeDal Sari
(I)
..__._. ~
Auto Parts (OEM)(131 _... _.._.._.. lf2 EnlBrta~menl(63) _
_.._.......f141 Medi:al SIljIpios (f4) _.._ _ _. f14
Iwtll PBJts{Replae:emont)
(112) 111 EnWonmentall241"_"'_"_"' __'" 314 _
Fabricali10(58\ ..__ __...517
BanI< (M)

.2101 Fi1arK:ialSvta. (Div.) (25J


.21l1 _II & Mi1!.'9 (Div. (511 __.._.1211
Bani< lCana<ian)131) ..__.._
llU
FoodPnlc:essilg(57) _.. _.. _
1411 NallnI ~.1l62)
_
_.467
*Sanl< (Midwest) (10) ..__ _.._ 117 Food
(17)
_.. 1522 Natural G . relied) (II
447
Bevoraga (AIalIIaIi:) (lD) ._ ..__ .1528 ForoignE_Il!BTtn
(43) _.... 1555 Now&paper 5) __....
1117
lle'lerage (SoIl~) (11) ..__ 1537 F~n Telocom. ((7) _.._.._.._.._ 7Il 0IIi:0 Equ~ & S~
lI7l _ 1131
IllJidl1llllariab (71j ..... _ _.. 1.11 F.."JHoine FumishiJI (55)
-m
OW ~~'lllll""""
1m
CoIiIe Tv (12) __ __ __ __ .._.131 GoIdISiIwr Miling 14li) .. _
lm Packagilg & Conlainor 12 _.. m
<:anadill! Ene!gy (2D1
._ .... _
Grocety (7D) ..__..__.._...__
ISOl1 P_
& Fcnst Products (Nl _._. tll
Cement& Agoroga1es(67)
m *Healhca .. Inbma1ion (15) .._ _661 P_1Ill
t261 __....... 409
Chenj:al !6asi:11I11
__.. fZ3C1 Home AppIInoe
122 PelroIoIrn

4) _.. . ftlD
Chenj:al llNoIslied) (41)
_ 1145 Homebuiding 110 .._
_ _.._167 PToci&iln Instumalt 1 )
__ 121
Chenj:al Spocioly)(791
_ 419 HolaUGamilg 12 _.._
1857 Pu!IistiiIg <521
.. __ _ 1873
Computer & PefIihe .. 1I fZ1) --- 10M Household Products (88) .._ _ 141 Ratoad (Ii) __ _.._ __ 301
l:ornlMer So1lware& Svta lZ7l .21&
Industrial
1 - - -.-.. RUT. (3ilii-- - -- -.- .. 1110
0IveniIfiad Co. (50) _ __
1141 Insu......
)
llM
Rec:reaIkln
_.1121
Druo (13) ... _
_
1231 Insu......
ually) (13)

Restaurant
..__.._ _ __ 310
DruoslDfe {23j
__..__
.. 107 Intemel P5l __.._.._.._
2211 Retal8lildilo SuPlllf (40)
113
Ed_I
13) __
1582 InvestmentCo. (51)
__ _ 167 Relal (SpecialLiles) (11) - 1180

_1enI

us

In) _

SeE'

Se

Median

35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

2.21'0

14.0

35

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capttal
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

The Median of Estimated

of all slocks with eamings

24
2526
2729
3G-31

$}.

PAGE
(II) .._ _ _._
1650
Socurlies 8lDll0IlIge (6) _._ ..__ 1411
Semi:on<luctll (1)
....._ 1432
SemI:on<luc:U COp Eq~ 121 __ . 1432
Shoe~) _... _..__...
.__.1670
"SloeJ ~~141
..
__ ...
Steel I
.1311
T""'. ~
15)
fA
Talaalm. SeMces (II) .. .._...T3D
T_ (65) _ __
._.
1637
TluIl(D) __ ._ _...._.1111
Tn & Rubbor (17) _ _. __ ._..... 111
TolIla:o (41)
..
_ _.. 1575
TolelrilsICo&melics (61) _.._ __.121
TrudcilgITl31ISP. Lusilg (41) __ 274
Wer Uliky (911 _..__ _.. .. 1314
W
N8Moltilg (111 __._ _525

Reta. Sto..

(ill _.__..__ m

~1_ _ _..

.~

~ !lis _.

d1Dl.

In three paru: ThJs .. Part I. the SUIlll1lUY lnde:L Part Z b Seh" rt'an OpInIon. PU1: 3 .. bUnp Reports. VIJiIunIeLVI. Na. ...
Published weekly by VALUE LINE PUBLISHING. INC. 22'0 e...t.2nd SIreet. New York, N.Y. 10017-5891

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH.10
Page 6 of 13

File at the fmnl of the

Summary

THE

R81ings & Repons

binder. last week's


Summary & Index
sholJd be removed.

&

Investment Survey'

Index

August 25, 2000


TABLE OF SUMMARY &

INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

Industries. in alphabetical order


Stocks, in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
2-23
24

SCREENS
Industrias, in order of Timeliness Rank
24
Timely Stocks in TImely Industries
25-26
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
27-29
Conservativa Stocks (f & 2 for Safety)
3Q..31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Slacks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential....
32
Biggest '"Free FloW" Cesh Generators
33
Best Performing Slocks last 13 Weeks
33
Worst Performing Stocks 18st13 Weeks
33
Widast Discounts from Book Value
34

The Median of Es~maled


PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

of Es~maled
DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 montlls) of all dividend
paying stocks under review

14.1

2.2%

of all stocks with earnings

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-yaar Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Tolal Capital
Bargain Besement Slocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utility Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

26 Weeks

Ago
13.7

Mar1<etLow
11).28-87
10.6

Mar1<et~h

4-22-

19.7

The Median

26 Weeks
Ago
2.3%

Mar1<e1Low

11).2U7

The Estimated

35
35
36
36
37
37
38

3B
39

Median Price

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 stodls in the ~poIheSized
economic environment 3 10 years hence

80%
26 Weeks
Ago

Mar1<et~h

3.7",l,

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL

4-22-

1.6%

85%

Mar1<et Low
1l).28.f7
120%

Mar1<et

HII'

4-22

35%

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable perfomnance (next 12 months).
PAGE
Adveltising(7) ........ _... _..... .. 1903
""ruspace.lDefense
(29) _.._.._..... 551
M T.. nspM (51) ..__.... . .261
Appallll (52) __._ ...._. __ .
1121
AWl & Trud f731
. ._111
AW> PsI1s (OEM) (II)

.. 112
AIJo PBIb (Replacement) (12) __ 111
Bank(71) .._..__._.._ .._
_ 2101
Banl (Cenadan) 132) _ __.._ 1511
Bank(Milwest) (.7)
__..
.1,.
!leYenIge (AIalIloic) (241...
152.
Bevorage (Sot Drilk) (A) ..__ 1537

Buldiltl MaEJiaIs 114) _._.


Cable Tv (7S) .._..
..

ea.-

.. 151
.131

Energy (11) ._
427
Cement& Aggegstos (44) _ _.191
CIlemical(Basi:) lsa) ._.....__.._1230
0Chemica1 (Diwlsiiod) (36) __ 114S
Chemical(Specialy) (72) _..__ _. 115
CornplMr & P8/iplle1llls (23)
10M
CanpWr Software & Svcs (27) .2111
lliversffiod Co.(47) __
.. 1341
DnIg (IS) __._ _._ __._ 123t
Drugstore (21) .._
__..__107
Educ:a!ionaJ Services IS) _.... _15&2

III c:bI"ee

paru: 11ds

PAGE
"VemenI Co.(Fmign) 149) _._ .. 374
Eledric Uti. (Cenlra~(Ill) __..__." 791 M_ry
(45) ... _...... _.._ .._.._.1301
Eloctric U1iIIy (East) (71) __.151 Manuf. Hoosilg.lloc Vell fJO) ._.1547
Eloctric Ullity (West) (53) ..._.....1741 Marline (30) __.. .. .._
2M
EJoclrDni:s (3) .---.-------1018 Medical SeMcoo
635
'Entertainment(56) .._..__.... _._.1141 Medical Supplies ~ ..... _ _
116
Envinlrunentalllll _....
. 317 Metal Fabricati1g
_ 517
Filar<ial SVl:S. (Dw.)(ll)
. 2133 Mela~& M"i1g (DiY. (53) _
121.
FoodPl1lCl!ssilg(&5) _
_ .._.. 1411 Nmol Gas (Dislli>.)
4G
FoodWholesalers (I.)
__
1522 Naval Gas(OivOlSlieil) (12) _ 441
Fmign EledrDl\lEnIoflJI (37)
1555 *Nawspaper (Ill "_"" __"._ _" 1117
Fore~nTelec:olll.(35l
_ _.7t1 otr.. Eqllip &
(II) _ 1131
Fum./HMle Fumisl1ilgs (41)
.1It 0()1fieJd SwviceslEq~ (20)
1923
GoiVSiIver M"i1g (41) _
1211 Pacbgilg & Container (15) __
35
Growy (70) _....__...._.__
.ISOI Paper & Fues! P_
(17)
111
Healhcare Inbmation (10) .. .. 161 P_
(InIeg;J (21) .._.._ 4Gl
Home AppialIOIl(74) _..__
.123 '_1Ill
(PrDOOcilg(4)
_ 1110
Homobuildilg(2S) _
_ 117 PlllCisiln Instrument 21)
_ 130
'HoIelIGamilg III ...
..__ 1157 'Pubishilg (57) __ "" __ "_,,._,,_.,, 1173
Produds (9)
III Ratoad (311 ..__
.._ 300
lnIIuslrialServicas 14.2) _.._...... _........
R.E.J.T.I3t) _ __ _ .._
1110
Ins n", (lite) (31)
.. .. 11K 'ReaostiIn I12} _
_.. 1121
Insunlll<ejPltljlICasuaIy) (&2)
5IlI Restau .. n! 43) __
_
_.._ 301
Internet(34)
_
_.._.. 2215 Re1a1 Buildilg SUPl'l1 (541
_.. 113
Investment Co. (55)
_ _._ .. 111 RetaD(SpecialLiIles) 122)_"_." 1110

Eledrical Equipmonl

PAGE

1) ..._......1001

I.)

__

rm

s~

PAGE
.1650
Socurties Bn*ngo (I"
... 14Gl
Serni:oncIucD 121
.1432
5emi:onlb:D" Cap E~ (1) _...1432
Shoe (14)
1170
SI!oI
._.!Ill
Steel (int
1311
113
T........ q~
13)
711
ToWn. Servicas (.') __ _.. _.730
TOXIIo(711 ...
.
.._.._. 1m
TtIlIlI4G)
. 1111
rn & R.- (71) _..
.117
Tobacco (16)
1575
TClIaiBsICosmm (14) ._
129
TrudIiIgIT_lBBSilg
(41) __.. 274
W UliIy (911 _.._..._..__.__.. 1394
w
_ilg
(I)
.. 523

RBIai S1o!e (81) _ ..

(7~)1_....
_

Hou_

._

illhis _s

_.

b Part 1. the SUDUIIIU"Y lnde:L Put Z Is Selection .. OplnIon. Put :5 .. Ratlnp .. Reporta. \/oIw:ne LV. No. 51
Published W8ekJy by VALUE LINE PUBUSHING, IHe. 220 Eas'''2nd Sb8et, New YO"k, N.Y. 10017..ses1

Docket
No. P03-4
Workpaper
# 3 to FJH-10
Page 7 of 13

Fi~ al the lronl

at

the

Ratings & Reports


binder. LaM week's
SummBry & Jndex
should be removed.

THE
Investment Survey

July 28,2000
TABLE OF SUMMARY &

tNDEX

Industrie in alphabeVcal order


Stocks. in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

CONTENTS

Summary
Page

& Index
Number
1
223
2426

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
24
Timely Stocks in Timely Industries
26
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Perfonnance)
..
2729
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
30-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Stocks With Highest 3- to S-year Price Potential....
32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
33
Best Perfonning Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Widest Discounts from Book Value ..
34

The Median of Estimated


PRICE-EARNINGS
RATIOS
of all stocks with earnings

Markel Low
lG-28-87
10,6

Markel~h
4-22
19.7

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

The Median of Estimated


. DIVIDEND
YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all divideild
paying stocks under review

The Estimated Median Price


APPREC~TIONPOTENTIAL
of all 1700 stod<s in the ~pothesjzed
economic environment 3 to years hence

2.3%

85%

13.5
26Woeks
Ago
1U

Stocks' with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to S-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Eamed on Tolal Capkal
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-<llilily Slocks
Highest Growth Slocks

Markel Low Markel ~h


4-22
1G-21H17
3.7%
'1.6%

26 Weeks

Ago
2.1-/.

26 Weeks
Ago
70%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN-ALPHABETICALORDER

Markel Low Market H;r


1G-21H17
4-22120%
35"/.

W1-TKPAGE NUMBER

Numeral

in parenthesis
after the industry
is rank for probable
performance
(next 12 months).
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
Adver1isalg
(4)
_ _ 1154 E~I
Equipmellt/27l
1001 II1VMImeIIl
Co.(Foreign) (5t)
374 R8la1~
(54) .._.._._ f640
Aerospaco.lle
(3li)
_ .._ 551 Eledric UIiI. (CennQ'(7A)
7Ot MactNy t49}
_
1301 8ealIiies 81ll1" (I) "' __"" 1405
M Transport (37) .._
261 Eiedric lJll1Iy (East) (7TJ
_ 15e Manu!. HolJsingIlloc Vob (19)
I5!G Semi:onl1r:l;r 121
__ _ 105CI
AjlpaI8l(m ._ _. __
..- 1111 EledricUIiIy (W .. ~ (0)
t737 M.riine (31) _._
_ _
2M. Semi:onl1r:l;r CapEq~ It)
1017
Auto & Tiucl<(47) .
_ 101 EIecIroni:s(3)
_._ _.. ~:10t.Medical
Se!vi:os~
_ _._ 135 Shoe~fl ..__
__. 1610
Auto Parts IOEM} (73) _
112 EntOI1ainment (521 .._ _ _ 1m t.ledical Supplies ~
_
'. 116 Steel Ge.;:ulO)
.__ __ _ ... m
AutoParis(Rep/aoemont) (12)
1t1 enWonmenla/ (1~ ._
317 _I F.brica1i1g
_._
SI7 S10eI
(AJ
_. t3I2 .
Sa.. (74) ._ _ _ _...__ .2101 FiwlciaJ S,.,.. (Div.) 12') __._." 2f33 "Mellis I MOOg '. (71) ._ 12fO Tolecm.Eq""","", (f2) ._ _ 718
Bani (Ca_nj IUl _.. _ ..lSll
FoodPlllCOSSi'og
(72) "'_"""_
141t Na\iral Ga6~,.1
(13)
412 Tolecm.SeIvices (5$) ._._
710
Sank (Midwest) (17) _
_ &11 Food
(17)
1525 NlltlnlG
. "")(13)
441 T_ fi2) _
_._. __. 1627
_1531
FOIOigDEIocmoIEoIeIln(34)
__ 1551 Newspaper II)
1831 "1ldl(G)
.1111.
Bewrage (So1Illrill)(11j ..__ t540 ForeignTelecom.
79f otlto Eq"" & ~
(181 ..- 11S1 TI'e & RulIber (111
_ .._.117

_iOIS

..Jleyor.~I(32l

if' _

BlIldngMalerIaIs (14) __._.,


151 FumJHomoFu!'"'
(41) ~.. I.. Ollield ~.124)
Cable tv (13) ... __ .._..
._. _.138 -GoWSilverMililg (39 _'''_'' __ 1201 PacIBgilg & ConIa_ (12)
CanadianEne!gy It4) __ __ _42T GIOCOI)'
(71)
_.._
_ 151. P.per & FlJOSIP_(M)

E')

fl) ._._ _ .. _ 117

. Cement&AggregaIBs(44)
_.._ 111 _1_(17)'
'Chemical
Ill} .----..1230 Home AppIance
Chemical . lied) (33) _
11M Homebuldilo130 _

Chsmk:al Spocilly} (75)

415

1174 T~
(15) ... :.
..__ _ ISlI
_135 Tololries.tosmeI (IS) ..... _ 121
011 TruclinglTraJlSlI. Leasi>o(53) _ 274

._ 161' P_~$i)
_.123 P-""
(PIOl1JcilgI) _
PlICilixllnstrumenl )
1103 Publishilg (If) .._ _
_ MI
Ratoed (31) _..
_

HoIoI'Gamilg 10

40t Wn.rUliily(llJ
1161 W...... NeIworIiIg {S}
_ t30

-- ..-. tUl
--- .. 523

1122

Computer & P~
(11) .._.. 11lM _
Pnxluct&(51)
300
~1Or Software & Sll:s (ZtJ .21M IndUllnl Se<viI:8s (45)
_ __._.... 'R.EJ.T. (43\ ._ __
_ __.. 1110
IliveJ>IIiIld Co. (46) _
135C1"'n,ura"," (L1Ie) (41)
11M Reaeatiln 51j
__ _ 1771
"Orug (1&) "_ _
__ 1231 Insuran~allyj
1101 510 Restaurant Q __
__
309
DrugsWnl(23) ,_ _
107 Inlemell35l
_
2215 Retai Buldilg &JppIy (51)
1&3

Edueati:'d.l Servi::es

In three parts:

f1t

R._WM

1.

'I1ds" Part I, the

Investment<'.o;(50)"._ ..

M M_M.M

961 Relai"(SpeciaH.ilesH22l

......... 1610

"'RiNiewed"Il1ti5week'i dtI:Jn.

SUIJInIUY.& Inde:L Part Z is Sehctlon. OpInIon. Put 3 III Radnp. Reporu.


PI.tJIished weeldy by VALUE UNE PUBUSHING. INC. 220 EaaI.42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017-5891

vmm.e

LV, No. "'7

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-10
Page 8 of 13

File al the front 01 the

THE

Ratings & Reports


binder. last week's
Summary & Index
shoUd be removed.

Investment Survey

June 30, 2000


TABLE OF SUMMARY

& INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

Industries, in alphabetical
order
Stocks, in alphabetical order
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
2-23
24

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in limely Industries
.
limely Stocks (1. & 2 for perfomnancej
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Hklhest 3- to 5-yeer Price Potential
Biggest "Free FlOW" Cash Generators
Best Perfomning Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Perfomning Siocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

The Median

of Estimated

of all stocks with earnings

33

33
33
34

26 Weeks

Ago
14.3

MariletLow
1G-28-87
10.6

Median

Price

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of all 1700 stocks in the ~pothesized
ecooomic environment 3 to years hence

2.2%

90%

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocks under review

4-22-

26 Weeks
Ago

19.7

2.2"10

Marilet ~h

The Estimated

35
35
36
... 36
37
37
38
38
39

DIVIDEND YIELDS

13.3

Market Low
10-28-87
3.7%

Market ~h

4-221.6"/.

26 Weeks
Ago
75%

Marilot Low Marilet H~h


1G-28-87
4-22120%
35%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
Advenisilg(7) _
_ _.._1154
"Aerospacei1lifonse(36) _ _..._.551
Air lranspat (57) _
_ _. H1
Apporel (51) _.._.. .._ ..
.. 1611
_ & Trudr(SII) .... _.._..__ ._ _. 101
AuIo PllItI (OEM)(43)
_.. 114
Auto Parts (Replec:ement)
(12) ..__ 111
Bank(71) __
.._
2101
Bank(Cone<ian)(16).._..__.._.._ 1571
"Bank (Midwest) (15I _
_.._._ 611
Beverage
(321 -- ..- ..- 1531
Beverage SolI Orink) (61) _ _.. 1540
Buidilg Malerla~ (It)
...._151
Cable TV (141 ....__ _ _.._..__.141
Co_
Enefgy (15)
__ _ 4Z7
Coment& Aggregaleo (33) ..
.lIg

1-)

Cheniclll

=~)
l72l

...._.._ 1230

Chemical . i\ed) (34) ..__.... 1191


ChemicalSpecialy)(73) .._ __.. 415
~
& Pe~
(17) _ 1017
Computer Sollwalll & Svcs (11) .2111
0i\'elsi1ied Co.(49) __ ..
_139
D!ug (25) .... _.. .._... _... __ _. 1231
D!ugslore (31) _.._.
_.._ 101
EdtK:ationelSerrices(lJ .._.. .1515

32

Stocks w~h Lowest PIes


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks w~h Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capital
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Perfomnance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-util~
Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

24
25-26
27-29
30-31
32

PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
EledricalEquipment(211 _ _ 1G01 InvestmentCo.(Foreign)(4&) __ 374 ReialStore (ce)
__.
1640
Eledric VIi. (CenInlQ(D)
_ 791 Mac!WIeIy (55) __
_ _.._.1301 5ecuIties Brotnge (51 _ ..__ 1405
EIeclrit UIiI\y (East) (1111__.._ 15& Ilanuf. Hoosin~ .. Veh (19) .._. 155C1 Semi:onllK:tlr (2).
1051
EIeclrit UIiiIy (WesQ {l2l .._.._ 1737 Merline (611 __..
_
_.._ 2M Semi:onlb:l:lr Cop E~ (1) __.1010
E_i:s
(3) ..
.._.._.__ _ 191' *Medical SeM:es (13) ..__..__.._ 635 Shoe /12) .. ..
..__ . 1660
Enter1a~ment(531 .._.._.._.._._ 1783 Medical Supp1ie8 (22) .._
111 *Steel (GeneraQ lI7l
.m
Envionmenlel(23) _.... _.. ._ 367 *\!elil Fabricating(44\ _ _.. __ 517 Steel (Integralod) (Ill.
. 1392
Filancial Svcs. (0iI'.) (24) _ __. 2133 Mela~ & Miling (Oil'. 1611 _
1211 Teloalm. Eq~
(III
m
FoodProcessilg(711 _.._.._ _.. 14111 NiDJral Gas {Di$lri>.)(MI
W
Teilalm. S..(51)
. n1
Food WhoIesaiels (10) .._ _ 1525 NIIIlJaI GaslDiYetsiiad)(14) _ _ 441 TllJIIe (671
.. ._ 1627
FlII1lijn Eilmln/EJI8tn (35)
1S51 Newspoper (13)
_ _ _.._.. 1836 Thrll (70)

.1111
FlII1l~nTelecom.(ZO) _ _.._ 7'2 0fIi:e Equ-, & S~
(71)
1122 Tre & Rubber(14)
.._.117
FumJHomeFUmishilgs(39) _...... 117 Ollield SeM:eslEq..-.. (30\- ..- .. 1174 TobaccoIJO) _._ .._.
.... _1571
GokllSiver Mining (40)
.... _.. 1201 Palbgilg & Conlai1er (74 __ _ m T_~
(711 __..__..132
GnlCOIy(lID) . _ __
__ . 1510 Peper &FlRSI ProducIs (52) __ 111 TructI1gITlllnsp.leasilg f37I
274
"Healhcara Inbmation (41) .._......161 PetroielJnllntl!g;JU21)
.401 Weter UliIy (91) _..
..__.._ 1391
Home Applance
Prl>I1lt11g 6) .._.._... 1111 Wieless Ne1woIUIg (4) __.. ._ 523
51 _.._ __.. 123 . P_
Homebuidilg 131
__.. 161 Pnlcisiln InslnJment ) ...._.._.._130
HoleVGemng11
__._.. 1101 PlIbIishiloj(15) ..__.._ _.__..__.1122
H..,."hotJ _
(54) _.._.._ Na Ratoad (27) ..__.._
_.._ __ 300
IOOuslrilllSeMces (62) _ _ _ _.. RUT. (45) _.._.._ _ _ __.. 1179
Insurance(life) /51) .._ _.._ _.11"
Reaeatiln1(7)
.._.1771
"InsurancelPropiCaSualyj(77) __.. 1M Restaurant 42) ....__.._.._ _ __301
~temet (29)
__ .._
2215 Relai 8uidilg Supply (59)
_.._111
Inves1mentCo. (60) " __"_"_"' __" HI
Relai (Speciallinesl (111
_...1670
"_
~ Ilis __ s __

In three parta: nib 1a Pan 1, the SUI1IIIIoUY


IIlndez. P-n. 2 is Sdec:don &- OpinlDIL Part 3 Is Ratlnp RepcJr-m. Volume LV. No.
PUJlishec:I weeki)' by VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 wi 42nd Stntet, NIIW York, N.Y. 10017-5891

a.

Docket No. P-D3-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-10
Page 9 of 13

ALUE LINE

THE

at

File

the fronl of the

Ratings

C/

& Reporls

binder. last week's


Summary & Index

Investment Survey

should

be removed.

May 26, 2000


TABLE OF SUMMARY

& INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

Industries, in alphabetical oroer


Stocks, in alphabetical oroer
Noteworthy Rank Changes

1
2-23
24

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
24
Timely Stocks in TImely Industries
2526
TImely Slocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
2729
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety)
30-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential....
32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Generators
33
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Widest Discounts from Book Value
34

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

The Estimated Median Price

DIVIDEND YIELDS

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
01 all 1700 slod<s in the h~thesjzed

Mar1<etlow
16-28-87
10.6

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocks under review

economic environment 3 to

2.1%

14.3
26 Weeks
Ago
15.5

Mar1<et~h
4-22
19.7

26 Weeks Mar1<etlow
Ago
16-28-87
3.7%
2.0%

years hence

85%
Mar1<et\lIllh
4-22
1.6%

26 Weeks Mar1<etlow Mar1<elH~


16-28-87

Ago
70%

4-22
35%

120".40

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE

PAGE

PAGE

1454 Eleclrical E<juipment (23) .......... 10C11 Investment Co.(Fcre~n) (42) _ In


AerospacelDefellse (48) __.._.._ 551 EIe<:lric Ulii. (CennQ (84) __
701 MaclinOlY(58) ............ _........ 1301
M TranspM (69)
. 261 EIe<:lric lJliiIy lEast) (12) _._ _ 158 Manuf. ~ac
Vell (17) ... 1550
Apparal (51) .. ..
__.. 1&11 Elactric UIiity ewest) (74) ._
1737 MarUllo (17) __ ..__... __ .... 2M
AWl & Truck
101 EIeclronial (3) __..
._ _ 1019 Medical
f4D
Auto Parts (OEM (33)
.. .. 814 *Enterts~ment (44)
.. __.... 1713 Medical Supplies 24 _......__.. _.IM
Auto Palls (Replae:ement) (90) _.... 111 Envirollmenlal (7!! .... __..... _.370 MetalFabricatilg (31 _._...._.569
Bank (72) .. _.._. _ .. __._.2101 FilBncial SVl:S.(DiY.) (3f) .... __.2133 _
& M~1ng(DiY. (III
f218
Bank (Canadan) (21) .._.._.._. 1571 Food Pmcessl'll (711 .. .. __ 1481 HOlIO\ Gas~.l(M)
...._ 481
Bank (MihIest) (12) .. _.._.._
123 fooj _
(17) ._ . _ .... 1525 I/8llnI Gs, . rsroed)(13)
442
Beverage (Akohoftl (35) .._.... 1531 FOIOilnEIactonn:nleI\n (2'1) _ .. I55B 'Newspaper 52) .... _.... _
1136
Beverage (5011Drink)(55) _ 15411 Fom.iIn TeIea>m. (11) ......
m 0I!i:0 E~ & S~
(73) _... 1122
Buidilg Materials(61) ._ .._.... _ 851 FumJHomeFumish~. (37) _.. &17 "01fiekl S~u~.
(281 - 1174
Cable TV (47) .. __.. _ .. _._ ... 841 Gokl/Silver M~ing(66) .._.... _.. 1201 PacIagi1g
& Conlainer
(7& .._.. 134
Canad;'" Energy (26)
.
.42B Grocory (ID) ........ _.
. 1510 Paper & Forest P_
(48)
.108
Cement & Aggregales (36) - ..-- . 111 Hea1lhl:are Inbrmalion (25) - .. - .. 671 PelroIellR (InlegraIed~
4Ot
Chemical
(51) --- ... - ...- 1230 Home Appiance f5)
--123 "Petrolelm (PnxiJcilg 6) _ __.1&61
"Chemical . lied) (30)
.. 1196 Homebuikll'lll2Q ..
.__ 116 Pracisiln Instrument 1 ) .._ __.130
Ch8mi:a1 Specialyl (a) __...._....0116 "HoteVGamilg 2D
._....._ 1801 "Pu!Jishing (71) _...._.._..._ _.1122
CoIlllMJlBr& POT1Jherais (&) _.. 1017 Household Proclucls (43) __ !l4I RaitJ<II (48) .._. .. _. _.._._ 30D
Coopr Sollwa,. & Sw:s I9l 2111 1IId""1IiaJ
SeMc:es (51) _
_.......
R.EJ.T.(45) ._... __..... 1179
Diversi1iedCo. (53) ._ .. _...._ 1350 Insurance (Lifo)(71) .._.._.._ _.. 1195 "R_ \50\ ..__.... _ .._.._.1771
Drug (11) .... _..__..._ _.. _ 1231 Insurance(PrcplC.suaily) 185)
515 Restaurant 41
_.._.... __
309
Drugstore (ID)
. ._...__ &Da Internet (10) ...._..._..__....._.....2213 Retal Buldilg Supply (40) ...__... 1&1
Educafunal Servi:ell(12) . . 1515 Investment Co. (54) __._ .... ... 916 RelaD (SpecEILines) (16) _.... _.1670
.AdYertisIng (7l _.._..__......_

158l ..__.__.__

5i:)

36
36
37
37
38
38
39

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
01 all slocJ<swith earnings

35
35

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks wnh Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks wnh Highest 3- to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capnal
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Nonutility Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

Serv"'II~ ._._ _..

W) _..

In three pmu: 'ThIs Is Part I, the SUJIIIhAry' & lndeK. Part Z Is Selection II: OpInIon.. Part 3 Is
N>IIshed ~
by VALUE UNE PUBUSHING, INC. 220 East'2nd SOHI, _

Rat:l:nBa

v....

PAGE

Rotal StOll! (3t)


_ _._..__. lf4D
SeaJrIies Brok,.age (4) _
.1405
Se_12l

1051
SerniconcU:D' Cap Equ~ (1) .243, 1.
Shoe 114)
.. _ __ _.__. 1110
StaeI ~")
__...... __.... 582
Steel I

) (&11

_.._....

Telealm. q~
5)
Telealm. Servi:ell(32) ..

.1392

770
.._... 731

....... _.. _. 1m

reJlie (M) __

null (77) _._ _ __ .


Tn & RII!lbeI (16) _....

1181

tt7
Tobacal (It) ..__....._.... 680,1578
ToIenesICosmelic (&5) . __ ...... &32
TruclilglTransp.LB8Sl'lI (34) ._.274
W*' Ulity (11) __
__ 13M

._

~ Ilis

II: Repons. Voluule


N.Y. '00\7 ..... '

_s_.

LV. No.

sa.

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-10
Page 10 of 13
File al the front of the

THE

Ratings

& Reports

binder. last week's


Summaty & Index
should be removed.

Investment Survey'

April 28, 2000


Summary & Index

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS


Industries,

in alphabetical

Page Number

order

~~c::.;,;~:~~~~eb:~~ser

.. ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::"2~:~~

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in TImely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for performancel
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safely
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highesl 3- to Soyear Price Potential
Biggest '"Free Flow' Cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

The Median

of Estimated

24
26
27-29
3(}-31
32
32
33
33

of all stocks with earnings

Ago
14.9

Mar1<e1~h

4-22-

Ago

19.7

2.1%

The Estimated

Median

Price

of all 1700 stocks in the ~pothesized


economic environment 3 to years hence

stocks under review

90%

Mar1<e1Low Marllel ~h
4-221G-28-87
3.7%
1.6A.

26 Weeks

Ago
60"A.

Mar1<e1Low Marllet Ht
1G-28-87
4-22120"A.
35"A.

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE
Adver1is~9(4)
__
1154
Aelll$paceIDeIl",e (601 __
55f
M Tran'llOf\ (79)
_.._..
261
ApflaraJ (41)
_
__ __.. 1611
Auto & Trud: (117)
_._
101
Auto Parlll(OEM) (35)
_
114
Auto
(Replacement)(10) _ 111
Bani:(74)
_ _ 2101
Bani: /CBnadialI) (fl)
_. 1570
Bank(Midwest)(14) .._
__ 123
(29)
- 1530
SoIl ilIilk) (65) .._._ .. 1531
6uildilg Mllleria~ (62)
_ 151
cable TV (52) .._ _.._
_.141
canadianEnergy(25)
_
m
cament& AW"!/Bt .. (311) 111
*ClIemicaIEi:) (61)
1230
Chemical . "lied) (42)
llH
Chemical Specially)(55) _
4H
~utB! & Periphera~(121 __ 1017
CompuIsr SoIlWare& S'ICS (II Z1A
Diversilled Co. (116) .. _
_ 1351
*D1llg (13)
_
__ _ _ 1231
OlllgstDre(51)
__ __ 101
EducatiomlSeMcet (I) ._ _ 1514

""rill

80"'"981_)
-'"98

26 Weeks

39

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL

2.2%

14.0
Mar1<e1Low
1G-28-87
10.6

of Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend
paying

35
35
36
36
37
37
36
38

34

The Median

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS

26 Weeks

33

Stocks with Lowest PIEs .. :


Siocks with Highest PIEs
Stocks wRh Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks With Highest 3- to Soyesr Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total CapRaI
Bargain Basemenl Slacks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding NonutilRy Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks
..

PAGE
PAGE
PAGE
EiedricalEquipment(24)
1901 ~estmenl Co.(Foreign) (20)
m Retai Store (33)
1640
Eledric lItiI. (CenlraQ (I5J _
70t Machinery (59) ..
_
1301 _
Brcl ge (5) .. .._.1407
EIedric Uti6ty (East) (11)
158 Manu!.Housingolloc Veil (12)
15411
(2)
_.. 1051
_
U1iily (Will) (72)
17311
(53) __ __ _
2M Se1li:a>ciIl:UcapEM>ll) .243, 1010
E_ni:& (~I
_.._ 1918 Medical SOI'Ii:es (14~
640 Shoe~)
_
_
_.. 1160
Enterlll~mont(45)
_.. 1713 MedicalSUPPIies~1
1111 Staol
512
EllYironmotilal(!:!I
370 t.IetolFebrK:ati19
.._
561 StetI kit
(70) .._
1314
Filanaal Svcs. (0iv.)(41) .1151, 2133 *_~
& M~ilg '. (39)
1211 Te'acom. qu~
(7) _
770
FoodPnx:essilg(10)
l"f
Natural Ga'~.J (73) _
411 7e'acom.SBI'Iiles (27l _ _
73f
Food Wholesale" (15)
1523 Netlral Gu'
lied) (11)
442 TeXlio(111).._
_._
lm
Forelln EIectronIEnlortn(26) _"_ 1557 Newspaper 41) ........ _ .._
11311*M (13) _._._.
.__ . 1161
FOIBilnTe'acom.(10)
192 0IIi:e Equip& SI4>PiiBs
(II)
1122 Tn & Rubber(17) _
_
117
FumJHomeFumish~jS(31)
117 0_
Sm:osIEquip. (31) _.. 1174 Tobacco(Ill) '_'''''.''_'.''''
680, 1577
*GokIISiI>er M~ilg (41) _ _ .._1201 Pectagilg & Coolainer(75)
834 T~
(461 _
132
G"""'Y (71)
_
1501 Paper& F<nst Producb (57)
101 TruckinglTransp.Leasilg (321
m
HealllcareInbmatiotl (23)
_171 _
401 Wm UIily (II) .._
_ 1400
HomeAppIa"",
123 P_
(Producilg 11)
_.1111
Hornebuidilg(34
_ .._.. HI
PI8Ci;iln instrument11 )
130
Hole~Gamilg(30
llG7 Publishilg (56)
_
1122
Household ProdUds(43)
_ MI
RatOll! (40)
_ 300
Indll5lria1 SeMcet (Ll)
_.. *R.I.T.
1171
*I"'ura"'" (Lie) (71)
_ 1115 ROCIllaliln 51)
1771
~(19)
.1151,.
RestllUllnt SO) _
_ 3D9
Inteme!(6)
_
_ 2213 Rotal Buldilg SlJpplf(211 .._
1111
investmentCo.(M)
_ _ 161 Relai (Specilililes) (11)
1561
*_
~ !lis _.
_.

_cD"

Ma_

r.

Gel1.=I)

('nlegral/ldll~)

(5(!

_ _

In thfte parts: ntls .. Part. 1, the Summary. lnda.. Part 2 t. Selection &; 0pInI.....Part 3 Is Ratlnp AIbp:wta. VolumeLV. No. st.
NIl""""
_
by VALUE LINE PUBLISHING. INC. 220 Eat'2nd -.
_ V.... N.V. l00,H881

"~ALUELINE

THE

Docket

No.

File at the iront of the

Summary

Ratings & Reports


binder.

&

Investment Survey

Last week's

Summary & Index


should be removed.

Index

March 31, 2000


TABLE OF SUMMARY

& INDEX CONTENTS

Summary & Index


Page Number

Industries, in alphabetical order


Stocks, in alphabetical
order
Noteworthy
Rank Changes

1
2-23
24

SCREENS
Induslries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Timely Stocks in TImely Industries
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 for Performance)
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safely)
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highest 3- 10 5-yaar Price Potential
Biggest "Free Flow" cash Generators
Best Performing Stocks lasl 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Widest Discounts from Book Value

Stocks wllh Lowest PIEs


Stocks wllh Highest PIEs
Stocks with Highesl Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-yaar Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Tolal Capllal
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Nonutility Stocks .
Highest Growth Stocks

The Median of Estimated

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS

24
25-26
2729
30-31
32
32
33
33
33
34

RATiOS

The Estimated

DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) of all dividend

of all stocks with earnings

4-22-

19.7

Price

Median

Markel low
1(1.2&-87

Marl<el ~h

3.7"10

1.6%

26 Weeks
Ago
70%

4-22-

Hf

Marl<ellow
Marl<e1
1(1.28-87
4-22120%
35%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable pertorrnance (next 12 months).
.
PAGE
Advertising (4)
_
_ la54
AerospacoJllefense(63)
_
551
Ail Transport(H)
1148,261
AluminumH
_ __ 1219
Apparel (57}
_ _
_ 1111
Auto & Truck (&41
101
Auto Parts (OM (58)
__ 813
Auto Parts(Replaeement)(87) _ 111
Benl ~Ol
_ __
2101
Bani Canad'mn)(18) "_"
1570
*BanI MidwMt) (77J
_
123
Bel'OrlIQO IAlcohOfl:l (241 _.._..1530
Beverage Sol Drill) (Ii)
_ 1539

IluidilGlIaBiaIsQ2)

851

CableTV (31)
Canacl'" ~ergy (25)
__
Cement& Aggregates (35) _
Chemical i:)J73) -

Chemi:at

E' "iIied) l50l

&40
421
Ul
1231

1atB

pecillly) (!2)
4U
~r
& POfiItleraIs(10)
1016
Computer_
& Svcs (91 __21&8
Copper(-)
__ _
1220
Divellililcl QI. (&5)
_ __ _ 1351
Drug (13)
__
. 1240
Chemial!

26 Weeks
Ago
2.0%

Markel ~h

39

85%

2.30/0

Markel Low
1ll-2&-87
10.6

26 weeks
Ago
15.1

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
01all 1700 stocks in the ~POlhesized
economic environment 3 to years hence

paying stocks under review

13.6

PAGE
PAGE
IlNjjstOlll(IG)
807 Intemet(S)
_
2213
EducationalSeMces (11)
1514 InvestmentCo. (68)
_
969
ElectricalEq~
(32)
1001 InvestmentCo.{FllIOiglI) Ill) ._ 377
EIec:tricUti. (CanlraQ (B5)
711 Macl*1eIy (51)
1301
EIec:tric UtiiIy (East) 183) ._
156 Manu!.HouoilgIRec Veh {B2)
1549
EIec:tricUiIiIy (WesQ (l8)
_.. 1716 Mariline (55)
_ _
__ 294
Eledronics(3)
_
101. *Modal Servi:es (141
- ..&40
Entertailment(45)
1793 Medal Supplies {23
__
I"
Envionmental(89) _
_
370 Metal FabricatiIg (371 _
_ 5U
FiIlIncia! SYCl.(DiY.) (33) .1757, ll33 Meta~ & M~ (DiY. (21)
1219
FoodPmcesslng (79)
_
14&1 N_Gas
(DistrI>.) (l1)
4&1
FoodWholesalers (15)
__ .. 1523 NOJral Gas(Dlversliocl) (20) .._ 442
FQIO~nE_nIEnBtn
(22)
1557 N_per
(43) _
1136
FIlIOi;IDT_~
__
7Il OlIi:aEquip&S~(87)
_1118
FumJHomoFumi;
(44)
Ollield SeM<:es/Equ\:l. 134
1874
GolllSiver Miling (4 __
1201 PackaQilg & ConIaile' In ..__ 138
GltlCOry (l4)
1.
Paper& Fcrest Plllduds (42) .._ 911
*lieaillK:araIrmnnabl (41)
671 P_""
Onlegralodl ~4B)
401
Home Appiance (75)
_ _.123 PoIrdoIm (I'nlWcilg 17) ._ 1"1
Homebuidilg (27)
8&B Preci;ix1lns1rulllllnl(1 )
130
HoIeIIGamilg(211)
__
18G7 PWIishing (38)
_
_
1&22
HouseholdPllldUdS {~I
952 Ratoacl (HI _
300
Industrial5eMces (62)
_ __
R.E.I.T.I5&)
_
_ l11G
Ins m:e(life) (lll
11M Recreatiln
1771
*i
(PnJI"Casualyj 190).1757,595 Restaurant54 .._
309

1"''''

\4!l\

__ _.

]n three par1JI: Tbb Is Part I, the SUIIIIrIaI'J'&; Inde..

PAGE
Relai Buildilg Supp~ 1211
__ "3
Retai (SpecialLiles) (19)
1169
Rota! SIin (40)
.164G
SeaJrties BIllk"'"9l III
1407
Semi:onclucrlr 121 ...... _._
1052
_CapE"'~(l)
.243,1071
Shoe (4&)
_ _
_ 1.
*Steel {GeI1OlllQ III) _..-.
_ .. 582
Steel (Inttll'Rld) (1&)
.13M
Teloalm. quilmenI (B)
_ 771
Te_.
5ervi:aB (21) _..__ .._.733
Textie 1531 _ __ _ _
1627
Thrll(81) _ _ _
__ 1111
Tia &RiJbber(l4I
.. 117
Tobocco(HI
_
680, 1577
Toien!sICosmetic (51)
831
TruckinglTransp.Laasilll (301
274
WalerUIily (91) _
_ 1400

._

iIl1tUs _.

Part 2 .. Select:ton .. OpinIon. Part ! Is Radnp .. Repo:na. Vohune


Published weekly by VALUE UNE PUBU5HING. INC. 220 East 42nd Stmel New Yen. N.Y. 10017-5891

CI2lD1. IiIIta U. ~
OR CMSSIONS HEEIN.

~G'..-..g

K.

Mr;ps"" fdllll-*f
& .........
a ~ Is u:Il"""'I-.J,. IDI

nm ~
..,.~III'

Icr IItidIVIU .... u..1Cl:li."

~--1iIOU1

"'.""0Ml.as

... n..-l.

!UQ5, flIIIMd

=_liII. HwNI

bile,....
Itl

...

-...s"~oI

~"I*l.JdlbIDn.IlI.-q

P-03-4

Workpaper # 3 to FJH.10
Page 11 of 13

rI..,

-' ~ fID"Ii*l:l ......


~
fllis ~
1M! IirIe npuaad.
lft.korYlb:IiIe~
....

*-*1 .. ~

B"

_.

l.V. No. ..

II'''-. ...

T1 Pl8JS/oO 5 MJTRESflOfI5IU FORNrf[flRCRS


(J....-t ..,,....
Is
c:ni'1 ......
~
IIIi8IJKrtIIIS
__ 1ll....,1I'.. :lIIDdesO'lDght DiMUII ~
....

Ini

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-10
Page 12 of 13
ParI

THE
Ql

ALUE LINE

Summary

Investment Survey-

Index

File 81 Ihe front of the

RatinfPO & Reports .


binder. Last w68k"s
SummBIY & Index
should be removed.

&

February 25, 2000


TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS
in alphabetical onIer

Industria&,

"_"~'_"~'_'

__ '_'_"_'_'_'_'_"

__ """" __ "_"_'"

Summary & Index


Page Number
_.__

Stocks. In alphabetical
ordar
Noteworthy Rank Changes

2-23
24-25

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness
Rank
24
Timaly Stocks in Timely industries
25-26
Timely Stocks (1 & 2 tor perlonnancel
27-29
Conservative
Stocks (1 & 2 for Safety
3G-31
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
32
Stocks with Highest 3- 10 5-year Price Potential....
32
Biggest "Free Flow" Cash Ganerators
33
Best Parforming Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
WOJSl Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
33
Widest Discounts from Book Value
34

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks wllh Highest PIEs
Siocks with Highest Annual Total Returns
Slocks with Highest 3-to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capllal
Bargain Basement Stocks
Unlimely Stocks (5 tor Perlonnance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-ulillly
Stocks
Highest GrtJWIh Stocks

The Median of Estimated


PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of all stocks with eamings

The Median of Estimated


DIVIDEND YIELDS
(next 12 months) 01 all dividend
paying stocks under review

13.7

2.3%

Market Low
11).28-87
10.6

26W8eks

Ago
16.7

Markel

4-22-

':Ph

Price

Median

POTENTIAL

of all 1700 stocks in


economic environment

the ~pothesized
3 tD years hence

Weel<s

4-22-

Ago
65"-

1.6"4

H1.f

Markel Low Markel


11).28-87
4-22
120%
35%

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER


Numeral in parenthesis after the industry is rank for probable performance (next 12 months).
PAGE

~roi

...-----.--.1154

Aeros
(71)
AZTnnporl (13)

D~

{12j

PAGE
117 _

.._... _

PAGE

(~I
--.._
.._
...... ._.
221~

..__.551 EducationalSerW:os (1~) __ _. 1514 1.. _


Co. (S7) _ ..
... _ HI
1118,261 ElectricalEqu"","", (37J
1011 Inv_ Co.lf<nigll) (13)
375
~"*,,,m~
1211 EIecbic lJIl
.711 IIachi1ery (~7)
.... _ .... 1301
Apparel (
.._.. 1111 EIecbic Utility (E1ISt) I
1ST 1IanuI. Housi1g.lloc Yoll (12) _. 150\1
AWl & 11 k (35)
.._ .._ .. 101 EIoctrlc Utility (wes1l
.... 17M IIrine 131) .... ..
..... 214
IvAJJ PIlls (0EI0I) (ll)
...
113 EIectmnics PI -..-..------- ..- 1111 _.142
AulD ParIs (Replocernelt) IUI
111 *EnteI1aiImenl (41)
1m Medical ~
__
.._ 111
!lank ~
..__ . 21D1 En~11I7J
....._.. _.311 Metal FBbricatiIg41
.. 5H
eanl ea
)(55)
..__.. 1570 F_Svca.(DIt1131).lTST,2134
_aMililg
.. 1(12) __ 1211
Bani klwast)(U) ..__ ..
125 FoodPr1ll:aS&i1g(7l)
..__.... 1.1 NallnIGas(Dislrlll(11) __ _.413
Beve!aga (AIl:oIIoi;~I24)
.. 1530 Food _111)
.._ 1m
_
Gas(ilNOIIIiad) (21) _..__ 443
8MrIga (Sot DriI (II) _..._.. 1531 F~n
EIectorlIEIEIIn(32) ..__ '557 "Ifewspapar (45) __ __ ._
1131
8uldi1g _
(T
.._151 FlIIOilnTaIecom.:!T--------711 0IIice Equil a SIWIioa (Ill
1111
CabIo TV f43)
.. 140 FumMomo Fu ..
pa) .. &II 00itiBld SerIicBWluil. f4l~
1m
CBnllllanEnevY 1251
4ZI GolIISIver Mining(42
.. 1211 Pockag;,g & eon_ (11 _.. 111
CameIi & AwBlI'lao (3&) _ltl
Gn>cort (TII
151& Peper & FcresI PnxlUCIs
_111
CIlemiaIi
IIll -----...-..1231 HeaIIIc:818fnbmllliJl fll) - ....-- m ~
/5! --- ..... 401
"ClleIriI:aI . Jied) (51) ---- .. 1111 Homo AppIaiM)
..__ . 12~ PetroIo
(P
. 9 (21
.1111
CIKmcaI SpeciIIy) (13)
.._ 411 _iIdi1g
..
111 l'I8ciIiJn Instruwt
11) "'_"
131

(CenInl)!) ..__

SeM:esi . ..

("=

e~)

& P~

~
Copper

So1lwanI & S':s (tl) .2171

(11)__" lOll _Gamilg

l-l

.1220

DMnIIied Co. (12)


Drug (15)

37
37
38
38
39

APPRECIATION

26

Markel~

11).28-87
3.7%

1.9%

18.7

36
36

85%

26 Weeks Martel Low


Ago

The Estimated

35
35

..

_..1111 "Pliblishi1g (34/

Househ'*l PIoducls (17) _ _.


InclusbialSo...... (Si)
..

1351 Insu,.nce (l.iIe) (T4j __..__..

...._. __._ ....

1240

1_(prup'Caoualy)

j )

.._..

517

I)

T-'.~~

7Tt

T-..SeMcas
Teds,lI)
T1rII (13)
Tn a ~

.._.733

..

(N) _..
Tol8caI (141 __ ..

T~

Il2T

.1111
.11&
171G,1m .

(11)

TlIJCkbiTlIKISP.

W*,lJIIIy

...131

Leasi1g (221 .._ %15

Itl) _.

1401

.... 1122

152 Ratood (21) __ .


._.
RUT. (15)
..
..
. 1111 "ReaaaIiJn 1:141 _ .._..

III) .1m,

PAGE
.._113

Retli Buldilg Supplj (II

RellIIlSoeciillines) (Ii)
.. 11ft
RetII Stin (~1)
.1140
SearIJeo Ilrcl<nve (7)
... 14G'1
5eIM:oncix:U 121 _..
1152
~
C8p E<M> {II _ .. 1m
Shoe ISO) .... ...... 1160
SlooI GanOIlII) l33l _ ..
.. 514
SlaaI (kltmlBd) 1S4~
.... 13M

Restaurant 51) __.. __..... _.__

3DO

_.

11.
I7fl
301

._

i11llls __

_.

10 II:hret: parb: ThIs .. Part I, the SUIIIIIIaI'Y Indez. Part Zia SeIectIan OpInIGIL Put 3 ... Ra.I::IDp Reports. Valuate LV. No. 25.
Published weekly by VALUE UNE PUBUSIiING, INe. 220 Eat 42nd Sbeet, New York, N.Y. 1OQ17..sa91
.. _

IMI! I.ft ~
0IISSl0NS IDOl

k."'911 ~

,.....,,...IaUmI.....,., ..,.......
tria,., aI_

r..-.....

atII
~.~.,~.lIIcW*:pdIIt:Ib.
u..
..,._-*s.....

(II:

bllltD ....

lliI .....

II

m..D............

b"

6I p1IIIDd tIIIDA:

.... IUI tr

..acrlll*d- ~ch:In

mdll,.,.

,......~IllIHs

lI'

fI

~.,-In.THE PlBJ5IR S

_.~.IIlIllllf

pM::IIDrI.., tit r
u-.IPIc..VU~NllUillg.IIL..~.c:.IIM

l1T ~
fOIl NI't D!JRQIS
111
.. ,...., tIIdIaIi: ....
-. .. .-11 b

~CI'--.--.y~

~ua.-.sar.gIIIIbhMI--.:1M::iL

Docket No. P.03-4


Workpaper # 3 to FJH-10
Page 13 of 13
I.

File at tne front of the

ALUE LINE

THE
lIP

Ratings

Repom:

&

binder. Lest week',


Summary

Investment Survey

should

& IndB}(

be removed.

January 28,2000
Summary & Index
Page Number

TABLE OF SUMMARY & INDEX CONTENTS


Industries, in alphabetical order
Siocks. in alphabetical order
Noleworthy Rank Changes

..

1
2-23
24-25

............

SCREENS
Industries, in order of Timeliness Rank
Tmely Stocks in Timely Industries
Tmely Stocks (1 & 2 for performancej
Conservative Stocks (1 & 2 for Safely
Highest Dividend Yielding Stocks
Stocks with Highest 3- to 5-year Price Potential
Biggest "Free FloW" Cash Generators
Besl Performing Stocke last 13 Weeks
Worst Performing Stocks last 13 Weeks
Wodest Discounts from Book Value

The Median of Estimated

PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS
of a/l stocks with earnings

14.9

26weeks

MarkelLow
lD-28-87

/190

17.2

Market Hijlh
....22-9If

10.6

33
33
33

AfIo

1m
(1t) _. __ .551
~ TIIIISP'fl(16) .._.._ _ 1148,ztl
.Alln*un H __ .
__ _ 1211
oIwnllSl) _._
_
1111
A&ID I Trud<(31) ..
III
A&ID PIIItIIOCll) (37) ._ .._....__113
A&ID PW RepIacemoat) [71) __ 111
Bonk~
__ _
_.2111
BInI: C8nad1m) (14)
__1571
BanI<
(41)
..__ 125
Beverage ~~(2I)
--- 1531
Beverage (Sol om 1121
1511
8'*1i'll MotIriBlsI ) _
..
__ 151
CIIlIBTv (531_
_ .._ .._111
CanadiMl Eno!gy 1211
_ 421
Cement lAw'"
(II) _ _111
OChllmlcai
(71) ....--1231
Chenical r-liBd) (701
11M
ClIBIIicaI Spocialyj III)
411
P~
(11) _ 1111
~
SoI\waJv I Svco III _.2171
"Copper H _._..__
.1221
llivwsiIiod
(16)
_
.. 1353
"Drug (17) _ ..__..__ .._._ ...1241

fs"~)

~I

Co.

Median Price

economic environment 3 to 5 years hence

2.10/0

700/0

Markel Low Markel High


lD-2W7
~224"
3.7%
1.6%

=~
.........
.
~GE

The Estimated

APPRECIATION POTENTIAL
of al 1700 slocl<s in llIe hypolhesized

(next 12 months) of all dividend


paying stocks under review

26 weeks

35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
39

34

ANALYSES OF INDUSTRIES IN ALPHABETICAL

Numeral in parenthesis

32
32

The Median of Estimated


DIVlDENt! YIELDS

1.8%

19.7

Stocks with Lowest PIEs


Stocks w~h Highest PIEs
Stocks ~h Highest Annual Total Returns
Stocks with Highest 3-to 5-year Dividend Yield
High Returns Earned on Total Capllal
Bargain Basement Stocks
Untimely Stocks (5 for Performance)
Highest Dividend Yielding Non-utHity Stocks
Highest Growth Stocks

24
25-26
27-29
3G-31

26 Weeks

AfIo

55%

MarkelLow Markel High


lD-28-87
~98
120'10
35"J.

ORDER WITH PAGE NUMBER

after the industry is rank for probable

performance

~GE

(next 12 months).

~GE

~GE

Retal8ui1i1g Supplf (7) _ _. Ba3


Reid (Spocilll.iles) (15) .._
1m
RElaII SIin (41) ..
....._ .._.1141
SocuItios I!Illkngo III .. .._.1401
Sem_ /2) .....
.._._ 1052
Cap ~
II) _. 1171
Shoo
.1111
StHI ~
..__......__ .114
SIoBl (
(
_..__ 1311
T_.
~
..
..
_771
T_._ll
.._.._._ 733
TBXIIo 1141
_ __ 1121
Fcnign EloclJllNEnlIIrtn1231 ...... 1551 Newspaper II ... __ .....
1135 *TJuII (541' .... _
_ _ __ 1181
F<Rlln T_ll2)
_.._ .._711 0tIi:B Eq"" & SI4IPiBs1571_.1111 TnI RdlW (U) _
__ .111
FumJHomoF..... hilgo (31) __ Ill
OllMl
1174 ToI8cco (77) __ ...__
_ 1m
_
Mililg (441 .._ _ 12. PacI:agilg I Conta
12
_..111 T--..eoomeb (711.._
131
Gruc:ory
1111 __ ......._.._ _ .. 15.. P8pIIr loFcnst ~
(21) .._. t11 TruddnglTransp.leaIilg I28l .._ 275
fntrmaion (IS) PeIrdeIm ~nIog.-cl~47) ....- 401 Wolor lay (15) .... - ........ - ...... 1402
.AppIaIlCll~51) _.._ _.124 PetJoIun (ProlU:ilg 11) .._ 1111
HomoblIiIdiIg 123
_ III Prociskln _
)
131
H_ilg
(1
_
_1111
(41) _
_.._
0rugst0nI (72) __ ........ _.._ ....... __ 187 _
(4)
.._._..._ _
2214
EdllCllliormlS!M:es (27) _ . _. 1511
EIBdricoI Equipmolt(571
1111 111._
(141 __....375
EIBclric ua (ConnI) (17) __ _ 711 Maclilory 1511 ......_..... _.._._.._.1111
EIBclric lJIIIy {EnI) lit)
__.. 157 MalM. Hou&iIg.llac Veil (II) ..... 1550
EIBclriclIiIly (West) (It)
_.1721 _
(31) ..__.._.
.._.._ .._214
EIBclronicI (3)
...
.. 1111 Medical
"_"_'14Z
EnIerIaiImont (50)
..__.__ 1713 ModialI SuppiBs
__ __
1..
311 Melli Fo~
~ ..__
5I'J
F_
Svco. (DiY.) 1241_.._;; 2134 __
I M~
Iiv.) (II) __
1211
Food_ilg(75)
_.. 1411 NIIUaIG~l.)(74J
_
413
FoodWllolos_ (25) ......__.._.. 1524 N_
G
. lied) llt)
_..443

1nY_ Co.J:!,.j;

Co.

_."'

Sorvi:esI_"

Som_

143) __ ....

Envioo.-1111 _ _.._

~'14l1 __

Hea_

PlOdudll2ll

pal

152 Rahld 4Z)


Industrial S!M:es (55)
_.._.... "RJ.T.
~ __ __
"InslllB!lCO (Ufo) (41)
__ 1111 11...-:12)
_
Ins.... co(ProplCasualy) (11) .._ 557 RestairinI ~l-.
Household

lm
.HI

1111

_._ 1771

_ 3DI

._

illlis _.

dtim.

ID three puU:: 'IbI8 b Part I, the Swnmary ,. Indes. PIII't.2 I. Sdecdon OpInIon. Part 3 is RatS ...
Iblporta. VoIuIIlIe LV. No. 21.
PuOI __
by VALUE UNE PUBLISHING. INC. 220 Ea"2nd .....
_ Y.... N.Y. 10017_1
~ 2UlQ. ....

Ln ~

... ,.

OR 0IIS5I0NS tl:1lDIt 11* ~

rVD .....
FIdIIII-.
III M:IJ b' -=11 .....

........ flfJP"-.I.-...c~

b''IlIidIlMlfl-.

"KbIl~IdIIB

II 1ltIlIiIId .... ~.....,,,


........
lIIpU'1id111
....
__
III., 1ft. TlIE fI\8.J5tG IS MDTIlSPONSIU FORNtf URIII5
'5 a.l,'"
ciIl *l1li-. NIl,., aI .. ~...,
.. ~
ill." ..............
bIa.. -.s lei
..,qll'JIICICUl '*-L ....... ......".clVlUlN.kar ... tNPIiIIIItiIII. __ ,II
mWn..--e:e-pn.1I' --.~~
n"""'ar~~
.. ~",,"''''''~
15
10.,
........

..,CMrI--'''''

FJH T-2 Workpapers

STATE OF ALASKA
THE REGULATORY COMMISSION OF ALASKA

Before Commissioners:

Mark K. Johnson, Chair


Kate Giard
Dave Harbour
James S. Strandberg
G. Nanette Thompson

In the Matter of the Filing by AMERADA HESS


PIPELINE CORPORATION; BP PIPELINES
(ALASKA) INe.; EXXONMOBll.. PIPELINE
COMPANY; PHll..IPS TRANSPORTA nON
(ALASKA) INe.; UNOCALPIPELINE COMPANY;
and WILLIAMS ALASKA PIPELINE COMPANY,
LLC ofTarifTRates To Be Effective January I, 2003,
for the Intrastate Transportation of Petroleum over the
Trans Alaska Pipeline System and the Investigation
into the 2001 and 2002 Tariff Rates for the Intrastate
Transportation of Petroleum over the
Trans Alaska Pipeline System

)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)

P-03-4

RECEIVED

STA U Of ALASKA

lltGUl4TORY COMMISSION OF 4lASK4

t,o~fi4Cllti"
VOLUME 1II OF III
Workpapers (2 of 2)
of
FRANK J. HANLEY
AUS Consultants - Utility Services
on Bebalfof

TESORO ALASKA COMPANY


September 3, 2003

"fUr

~t-lt"'6.

~AH4

tr'~ ~.

\\1"'''1'

&y, .....
Po

1-/ THuD

,.r

Docket No. P03-4


WORKPAPERS
(Consisting

to FJH-11

of Workpapers # 1 - 4)

Docket No. P~3-4


Workpaper
# 1 to FJH-11
Page 1 of 3

TICKER
SYMBOL

COMPANY

ADJUSTED
BETA

UNADJ.
BETA

RESIDUAL
STD. ERR.

STD.DEV.
OF BETA

Proxy Group of Fiye


011Pipeline Companies
BPL
EEP
KPP
KMP
TPP

Buckeye Partners L.P


Enbridge Energy Part
Kaneb Pipa Line Part
Kinder Morgan Energy
TEPPCO Partnars L.P.

0.60
0.60
0.55
0.70
0.65

0.36
0.36
0.29
0.52
0.39

2.9105
2.9570
3.0554
3.1741
3.1377

0.0698
0.0709
0.0733
0.0762
0.0753

Ayarage

0.62

0.38

3.0469

0.0731

Beta Range (+/- 2 SId. Deys. of Beta)


2 SId. Deys. of Bela

0.23
0.15

0.53

Residual SId. Err. Range (+/- 2 SId.


Deys. of the Residual SId. Err.)

2.7791

3.3147

SId. dey. of the Res. Std. Err.

0.1339

2 SId. Deys. of the Res. SId. Err.

Proxy Group of Three


Gas Pipeline Companies
GTM
EPD
KMI

GuffTerra Energy Par


Enterprise Products
Kinder Morgan

0.75
0.65
0.75

0.55
0.46
0.57

4.3735
4.1261
6.0346

0.1049
0.0999
0.1448

Ayerage

0.72

0.53

4.8447

0.1165

Beta Range (+/- 2 SId. Days. of Beta)


2 SId. Days. of Beta

0.30
0.23

0.76

Residual SId. Err. Range (+/- 2 SId.


Deys. of the Residual Std. Err.)

4.4189

5.2705

SId. day. oftha Res. SId. Err.

0.2129

2 SId. Deys. olthe Res. SId. Err.

Source of Information:

0.2678

0.4258

Value Une, Inc., Proprietary Data Base, June 16, 2003

Docket No. P~3-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-11
Page 2 of 3

:.':'~'.

TICKER
SYMBOL

ADJUSTED
BETA

COMPANY

UNADJ.
BETA

RESIDUAL
STD. ERR.

STD.DEV.
OF BETA

Proxy Group 01 r..


e
011Pipeline Companies
BPL
EEP
KPP
KMP
TPP

Buckeye Partners L.P


Enbridge EnelJlY Part
Kanab Pipe Line Part

0.45
0.65
0.60
0.70
0.60

0.14
0.39
0.35
0.50
0.35

2.3699
2.6426
2.7260
3.4697
3.0649

0.0709
0.0850
0.0816
0.1038
0.0923

Average

0.60

0.35

2.8986

0.0867

Beta Range (+1- 2 Std. Devs. 01 Beta)


2 Std. Devs. 01 Bela

0.18
0.17

0.52

Residual Std. Err. Range (+1- 2 Std.


Dew. 01 the Residual Std. Err.)

2.6438

3.1534

Std. dev. 01 the R .... Std. Err.

0.1274

Kinder Morgan Energy


TEPPCO

Partners L.P.

2 Std. Dew. 01 the Res. Std.

Err.

02548

Proxy Group 01 Four

Gas Pipeline Companies


EPG
EPN
KMI
WMB

EI Paso Co",.
EI Paso Energy Partn
Kinder Morgan

Wiliams Coso

0.80
0.55
0.60
0.85

0.67
0.29
0.33
0.75

4.1915
4.1236
5.7723
4.3169

0.1254
0.1234
0.1727
0.1292

Average

0.70

0.51

4.6011

0.1377

023
028

0.79

Residual Std. Err. Range (+1- 2 Std.


Devs. olthe Residual Std. Err.)

4.1967

5.0055

Std. dev. 01 the Res. Std. Err.

0.2022

Bela Range (+/- 2 Std.


2 Std. Dew. 01 Beta

Devs. 01 Bela)

2 Std. Dew. 01 the Res. Std. Err.

Source 01 Information:

Value Line, Inc., Proprietary Data

0.4044

Base,

December

14, 2001

Docket
No. P-03-4
Workpaper
# 1 to FJH-11
Page 3 of 3

TICKER
SYMBOL

COMPANY

ADJUSTED
BETA

UNAOJ.
BETA

RESIDUAL
STD. ERR.

STD.DEV.
OF BETA

Proxy Group 01 Five


Oil Pipeline Companies
BPL
KPP
KMP
LHP
TPP

Buckeye Parlners L.P


Kaneb Pipe Line Pari
Kinder Morgan Energy
Lakehead Pipe Line
TEPPCO Parlners L.P.

0.45
0.60
0.70
0.65
0.60

0.14
0.35
0.50
0.39
0.35

2.3699
2.7260
3.4697
2.8426
3.0849

0.0709
0.0816
0.1038
0.0850
0.0923

Average

0.60

0.35

2.8986

0.0867

Beta Range (+/- 2 Std. Devs. of Bela)


2 Std. Devs. 01 Bela

0.18
0.17

0.52

Residual Std. Err. Range (+/- 2 Std.


Devs. olthe Residual Std. Err.)

2.6438

3.1534

Std. dev. olthe Res. Std. Err.

0.1274

4.1915
3.9089
5.7723
4.3169

0.1254
0.1169
0.1727

4.5474

0.1361

2 Std. Devs. olthe Res. Std. Err.

0.2548

Proxy Group 01 Four


Gas Pipeline Companies
EPG
ENE
KMI
WMB

EI Paso Energy
Enron Corp.
Kinder Morgan
Williams Coso

0.80
0.90
0.60

0.85

0.67
0.79
0.33
0.75

Average

0.79

0.64

Bela Range (+/- 2 Std. Devs. 01 Beta)


2 Std. DavS. 01 Beta

0.37

0.91

0.27

Residual Std. Err. Range (+/- 2 Std.


Devs. 01the Residual Std. Err.)

4.1478

Std. dev. 01the Res. Std. Err.

0.1998

2 Std. Devs. 01 the Res. Std. Err.

0.3996

Source 01 Information: Value Line, Inc., Proprietary Data Base, January 1, 2001

4.9470

0.1292

Docket No P
Work paper # 2 t o .FJH-11
-03-4

ALBERTOCULVER 'B' NYSE.ACV


TIIEUlI[5S
SAFETY
T[C!mlCAl

Low'

"""
Uir

a;::;;: -..

Ann'Ta1aI
R,..."

nlallE's

32.'
19.8

.14
.40
J2
.06
J1
2.3S

22~

''-50
.66

...

.08
.11
2.56

15.~

55.

11.4
1.16
1.1%
CAprrAl

118
1.'1-

'"

J
0
0
0

A
0 0 0
0 0 0
300
f

' ' .:

,"L
1111

~~v
:.+

4QI0l

"'so ,.

12

Po,,",,'

117

21992

25366

15.41
.7B

13.96

".69
.76
.56

.09
.34
'.06

..,

.83
-85
.'0
15
4.05

.11

'-02

.~

,.

......2

11.1

18.0

25.'

'-30

1.30

.. 62

".'1

.61
.12
.36
5.01
57.
lB.7
l.1J

STRUCTURE

.""

..

'.",

C8:~
ReOlltvables

202.6
169.7

~/F'FO)

~78.3 522-2
26.1
35.5

Cunni. Asssts
A&Ds Pilyablll
Do" Duo
Othe<
CurTllriUab.

876.9
191.4
2..
196.0
390.3

Sa""

.-.....

--.
2001

2002
2003

v.,
.....

FIocoI

2IOIl
2lI01

2013

....,

Co.

1111
2IOIl
2001

"f""
10.5%
12.5%
12.5%

''Cash FJow"
E8mngs
DMdendo
Book V.IUIl

v.,

Pat

11.5"

217.5
209.0

.0..

1039.1

218.1

3.7
3.4
205.9
222.'
460.4
427.4
Pat Est"d __

.."'" .....

nIL

t 1.0'"
13.0%

12.5%

aoo<

11.0"
13.""
12.5"

13.5"
f.1
QU.IR18lLl SAlfS II oaj'
FIs<oI
Doc.31 IIorJl J .30 Sop.30 v.,
525.' 553.' 573.1 594.S 224T1
593.6 622.6 63404 643.6 24941
614.3 6!i7.T 681.1
266'-0
6!16.!
7116.9 TZU 7411
7~
715
IDS
2f0ll
755
115"

11.0%

69'.'

EARNItGS PER SHARE

A.

0.<.31 .7.31 J -30 Sop.30


.45
.50
.:rI
.40
.50
.56
.41
.45
.61
.66
.50
.56
.74
.11
.60
.63
.n .12
.111
.70
QUARlBlLYIlIYIDlSPAlDc

II,,~I Ju .JII--s;:Ji' 0.<:.31


.1165 .1165
.1165
.06
.075
.1165 .075
.0'5
.lI83
.1183 .lI83
.lI83
.09
.09
.09
.09
.105

.105

...
527

".3
36

57.9
41.6

53.1
47.1

Target Pric. ReU2006 2007 2008


,2Il
100

.1 ,,,IlL'
I'"

am

F.I

fl_

v.,
'.n
1.91

l32
US

2.ft
Filii

v.,
16
19

.33
.36

21!'
1.17

.7S
.14
.4'

5!1

--

...

H11

10

13
.98
U,
5711
21.1
1.1D

16
.86

56.14

13561
81%
10.7

1590.4

51'

62.7
37.31

13.8"
11.4%

11.'1.

11,9'

17%

1.31

'.64

1216.1
8.0%
10!
44.1
360%
3.6"
185.8
43.0
321.0
12.7%
13.5"

'8%

'-25

55.63

1148.0
8.0"
19.6

11.9%

35."

55."

HI6
.18
.74

"I'

80.2
298.S

32.07
2.12

37.51
,!%
'0'-'
183.1
370.9
10.0%
'4l'1.
16%

18.0
1.13
!%

9.'32.9"

,....

21.'
113

1n5J
.834.7
9n
9,4"
36!
36.1
15.6
83.'
37.21 31.3\
4.3% 4.%
269.0
278.0
149.4 171.8
G7.0
534.0

228.1
161.5
425.1
110K 12.5'"
1.8\ 1521
12.~" 13.01
15%
14%

12.6'

15.61
13."

16%

2."

10.21
55.73
16.7

.85
1.0'
1915.9
9.51
421

86J
35.5%
U'lo

3091
2251
568.S
~1.8"
152%
12.6'"
17%

1>,
11.11
55.94
15.1

.98
1.1'
22472
9.5"
49.6
971
33.0%
4.3"
"".7

st.,...

40.57
'.IB
2.32
.15

24942
9.61
51.4
110..4
34.01-

2651.0
10.61
4'1

12.7"

12.5"

17%

"'fl.

"" _

4U.
2-85
1.91
.12
.65
12.85
56.83
20.7
'-06
. %

636.5
11.1'
15.3'1.

340.9

manutachms and n&UIs healh .nd


beauty 11m, indo \1'05, AlIettJ ~,
TRESemn.. FDS, Con1011,
S.w FonnuII; ~
PIOdUcI:I, indo
fJaIh,
SbU GuMf, SI9Ir Tril, Molly &k5uhr. (U.s.A. div., 23% ct '02
.. 181; Inn, 15%). SpQciIIty

.. TOt RE11JRI, Ml3

dllllritMian- Silly, IIcUdM Sally Suuty


(62% <i .... j ..._
... ""

c....,

Alberto-Culver is on track to deliver


its 12th consecutive annual sales ,and
sbare-earninll"
gain In fiscal ZOO3
(ends
September
30, Z1I03), A strong
17% 8rst-half earnings increase puts the
company weU toward this goal. We look for
a more modest 11% improvement in the
second half, reflecting comparisons against
a vibrant year-earller period and tougher
competitive condItions in the hair care
area. as large rivals are introdUcing new
products. Partially offsetting this is a good
performance ~ the high-margined skin
care group. A didonally, the distribution
business
overseas is boosting results.
Looklng forward. we doubt that ACVs
winning streak will be broken In fiscal
21104.
Alberto has several strengths
and upportunlties. It's the dominant player in
distributing professional hair care produet.s. ACV also has solid positions in the
hair
and skin care value niche. Opportunitles exist to improve margins at its
consumer~ucts
and Beauty Systems
Groups.
, Sally has room to further
penetrate its foreign markets. Finally ...
Alberto's
strong financial position

17%

41.80
3.55

115
.4f

!S
14.82
58.111
1O.B

1.09
.7'11

.'5
'T.oIS

'10.2
862.5
12.7"
16.0%
13.6'1.
15%

1025
12.0"
1.SlI
13.ft
fSll

23.'

6-01

SIIII pll"lha
115 "Clih RW' Jlll'1II
115 EIrMIp,..e
.41 Dn'dl Dlc:l'd .. th co
.15 C... I s,.dinl por 011
.f.
look VIM pII' iii E
g~
51-"
A'llAn.,~_
R_m_
A'fI Nail' DN'd Y'1I&d

IUS

S14S

'100
11.1/1

50.8

.40
~fS

.15
1.U
1I.f.
10...
fl.O
W

.'"

1Itt_
O~:' ..'"

415D

171
35.8% _Tu",,"
.7lI IItt ""',,_
510 W_S
2f1 la'IIT ......
1InIIl
filS 610
fl8% Rlium l1li TutII CIp'I
I.SlI R...........
~
13.0" AIIINd 10C_ Eq
f'" AI DiY'dl to tMl PrvI

""1100_'

IIIna via 2,nO+ whoIBsalB-nlbli


prtDl. 15% r:I Cl A
and 2R

stant .. Ab:JuI 'f1,900

"0
lID
"8%
UlI
'11
17O
.US
1<8%
I.SlI
fJ.1nli

1'"

&J1)l

lop-

ul Cl 8 s(L owned by atr. & dir.;


AIR Corp., 115.2% CL A; N8utliIrg.9.n. Q. A (12m2
ProJ;y). Chnm.: L Uvin. Pt.. & CEO: H. 8llImict. ItIC.: DE. Addr.:
2525 Annbge Ave., Wen.
PIIt, L fI0160. TIII~ 7Q8...45O.3OOl)
Web: ......
b8rto.com.

s.man,

gives it many options to reward its


shareholders.
By the end of Its fiscal
year. the company :l5 llke1y to have over
$300 million In cash. ThIs strong position
should permit ACV to acquire a large dIstributor (e.g. minimum sales of $100 milUon) to extend Beauty Systems Group's
coverage into new re~ons (it currently
serves 60% of the U.S.. Smaner acquIsJtions in the hair/skin care segment. are
also a posslbllity. Other potential uses of
the excess cash are share repurchases,

and

another dividend hike In calendar 2003.


We believe ACVs balance sheet Is sound
enough for all these actlons to occur.
This good-quaHty
stock is neutrally
ranked. However, the current quotation,
reflecting Alberto's earnings conslstency
and the eamonnca1ly insensitive nature of
its products, appears to discount a portion
of the earnings growth we project out to
2006-2008. Thus. we advise IllI1ll-tenn Investors to walt for a more opportune entry
point, When they find It, we suggest purchasing the lower priced Class A shares.
We expect the company to revert to a
single class of stock by next spring.
Jerome H. Kaplan
July". 2003

"fa we..

("I Fr!II::aI re-1IIIdS sept. 30th. (BI SaId Oft 2Ifttl.


and
CIas B shanls hn8 1 waC8. (EJ
avu shs. OtIIstandilg tmI tisclII '94, dilJt8d
(e) Ol'lilenlts hl5i:riallly paid
FebnllrY, Ind. i1Iang.: II '02. $423.1 mi., $7.ZBIsh. (F)
Ihln.... Eld. 1lCMh:U'. gad: "88, 4; '17,
May. August, and
A'
In mil., .dj. frI' stra. sph
16; '00, 11.. Next.-n" I1Ipcrt dlll.Al1y
shires (ti:kIIr: AtNA) tine ..
pri:dy
o llIJJ. .... ~ ~~~.
fa. ....
h IIK*'d fKIIl_~lOtlt"""
it p1IWidn .....
.....es
UIIL
THEPUillJ$lR 15 NOI R[
ORMY [RRORS OR 0IIIS9CINS H[R[ ... 1M ~
151h:1J" UtcrillIn ........ _ .._tilL ....
use.
P*'
rA" -.y lit I!fIDlIIEIIlL 1NIIL!ll:nll1II' .....
Mill)' pri*d.""'-: III' Ill.- ba CIf IISId b JIIM'IIhj II ...-g.., "i*lIli ....
flIIIlIbli;ft. -m II ~

in"

91.7

-..:: ::

523.7

350%
51%

'~.,
0YALlEUNEPIIl

-- ...~,.

51.7.

11.'0
tU"
4lD
110
"'8%
'SlI
550

137.7

-.
""
""'"
~.1
"6
:
"0
lie.

2004

4. "
486.7
'211
736.0
11.5%
15.0%

BUS"ESS: A.lbsb-Culvw

S,"'" ......

".

1~.
3~.

40.17
2.62
In
19

-.
-...
'2

'-

31.62
2.01

"94
8.85

'-n

11'10

205.'

24

1999 2Jiilt

28.50

15J

'2

"-.;
'

24."
1>2
.94
.16
.56
6.69

'-02

..

-'

"I'''

-"

.'.:

"I'

".
-'-- - -

lID
64

16

55.36
14.0

3.61

.--------- ....
...

10

56.7
17.1
1.01

36.6%

246.9
205.0
547.1

984.2
233 .

1014
1.01
.72
.14

41.3

lull .. , UncapitllzedAnnUl1
rental5 $67.6 nil.
ND Dllfined Benefft Pw:nslon Plan
PIlI Sled None
CorntWOlI SIod: 58.661,359 sirs.
CtassA: 26,321,119mill. shs.; Class B:
32,340,240 mill shs. D
MARKET CAP: $3.0 bilion (liid ClIp)
2662 31311U3
CURRENT POSITION
2661

ANNUAL RA1l:.S
......
(>0- .. 1

43.5
11.4

11111

.....-. ~'-,

"

......
.....

10lIl1

.,

.,11

as gf :sr.nm
Tot&!ORI:It$323.6",.. Due ill 5 V,. $4.1 mil.
LT 0111115320.2 mill.
LT lnteMt $24.1 mil.
(LT mBnlS1 umed: 10.Qx; kJtaI nten!s1:
coverage: 9.3.l)
(25%oIC.,~

21.6

..

.
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996~8
:::-.

27.9

RCe$WIT

InstituUonal Decl.ion.

"'"'
'08

32.6
23.6

16.3

W~1.12~ 0.9%
,,,

l-r:l .." ~.~

+40%
InsidlK Dcaclslona
~ 8 0 D
000
0 0
000
0 0
000
1 0

....
:':::
....

25.0

lB.3
12.9

(T""S
1Itdi1ll: lU)
18.1

2... -1 ~:ZI!Il

o./fI

IS
70

LEGENDS

PROJEOlpNS

Pritt

13.7
9.'

14.1

10.1

'lOI~CI5hFbI""pltl
_. R __ ~ Pm Shrlglh
Uar.'.!pIt :!JtIJ

IETA .lD (lJlll-Mlltd)

2......

18.0
10.6

Hi"h:

3
_""""
1.....
,,.,,
3 ........,

50 80 IlRAmf 18 7

I~CEHT
PRICE

NcMIrItM.-di~~

at:1o

Comp~ F... IIdIf ...... .,.


StDck". rb stIbIltJ
Price Grvwth ........
Eam. PTWtIdabiItJ
'

"

: II:

'+

95
SO
100
I I

I~33.141~oo24.5(=:.lIi)~~1.41~

BRE PROPERTIES
NYSEBRE
4

THEUNESS

L-..redi'lJm

High:
Low:

TECHNICAL

18.1
14.8

24.8
17.3

2"-15f!1.

28.7
21.5

26A
20.5

33.7
21.8

$IrIItrfJ _s

33.0
ZlI.2

'"

;})';:;
.:.-~~

Iit'!l6

..,

34.3
ZlI.4

--

2-1or

."

...

,,

6.2%

34.4
28.2

Target Prk_ Rnge


2006 2007 2008

.. -

.- ... ~_..

,.

hdi::.lr receDilrl

.... 'Tobt ~
Rdum 1

Olin

30.<l
235

..

2OQ6..48 PROJECTKlNS
I'rirt

17.3
14.9

~~~~DinllIllb:lh

.1D (l.llO-IIb.Tkt)

IE1J,

19.9
16.1

==:r~~
-..",

2 Ntw1nllJJ
3 t.c.MllYlm3

WID

Ht3
14.2

II....

an
60

50

"
30
25
20

I~}

8.93

8.65

8.47

9.13

8.90

8.99

9.12

8.99

10.89

14.13

16.95]

11.30

1.12
126
1..20

1.16
0.94
1.20

1.21
1.02
1.20
1~n
15.82

125
1.87
1.20

111
0.97
1.20

112
118
1.20

1.32
1.51
1.20

1.22
1.02
Ul

1.26
Ull
1.26
15m
21.84

1.66
1.21
1.31

1.61
1.31
1.38

2.10
Ul
1.44

12.14

1~63

15.16

15.82

~~w~
7.1

..

15.6

14.8

1~6S

12.05

1~31

11.51

15.14

15.84

15.84

15.64

21.84

11.64

11.5

11.5

11.5

1.29
1.18
.88
.70
.n
8.311
UJi
8.0'
9.11
8.11
6.~
CAPITALSTRUCTURE u of 113M3
STDtbl$125.0ml.
Due In 5Yn.I233.0ml.

7.5

13.5

.70

:10

LT Dtbt $1001.7
LT iTtelWSf $58.0mil
(fDlal iIIlns1 aMOge: 2.8Il.)
(34% afC8p'l)

8.1"

~.3
20.3

45.3
20.3

"B~ ".8\
251.4

28U
1.0

1.0

us.

11.6,.

PfdS1oCk$12B.8rn1.
Pfd.Dtv'd$10.6mll.
2.15 Inl. Ihs. SIlf"BS A cum. at liquid. vallKl.
3.0rnilshs. SeriBs B cum. aii:luid,vallII.

17% 01 Cap'Q

Common stodr: .f6,243,l15Sshs.


No DdnMl BtInefil Pension Plan

8.11

=~~~~:~
(Mid C.p)
2000
2001

2002

63.0
63.0

142.3 142.3
92.1'" 92.11.
1.6'
1.61
1a,
12.910

1628

2.38

2.34
1.55
1.56

1.60
1.70

15.94

2.61
1.69
1.116

15.75

3121

3629

31.36

36.'2

39.69

05.98

cue

44.22.

4U8

(5.90

45.81

45.87

.n

16.4

19.0

17.3

1.02

.83

1.02

6.n1
54.4
26.5

6.6ti

5.3"

5.71

101.6

137.8
49.3

203.2
60.6

48.1'1
3361
1.0
9.5"

36.4'1

37.0
n6A
1.5

7.5\
124.0
46.7 1880
239.3 464.1
85.5'" &0.0'1.
1ill
2.51
8.9,
6.4'

3S.!'l
29.8'1
13Q2.1 1604.9
1.
.3

7.!l'I.
186.0
3S5.4

707.5
66.5"

3.6'
6.7'
1.0%

45."
"'511

Invllltrnenls Funded
DivIdends DedaIVCl
FINANCIAL. POSmoN

105.3

186.9 2&6.2
90.9 97.4

1.2
'2J3''''

5eniorDllbl(miI.)

12J3tlD2
--

Sr1lIIlt:JIICep'l
Funds
..57:1
lotll Debt/Equly
1.32:1
PORTFOUO
CONDITlON
Y8llr Ago
MtvesRepaidinQUllrtar(mll.)
1.0
Co!.....

-A9:1

1.38
l.8test

.5%

lcla R8ser\IIe--1W'IrrtesII.

1.0
.5%

REALEmTULllIHS~"'J
IkrJ1

JunJO s..JO

Doc.31

1689.2 11482 1509.5 1671.9


1641.5 1693.' 1121.7 1618.0
ZIOZ ~.4
2010.1 2021.5 2061.7
_
.1

16.7
.95
61

234.3
732
311'1
1610.'

17.4

171

.97

.96

Cal-

.....

2023.9 Z100 Z1i111


WI
l.3OO
2311l
EAfMfGSPERSHNIE.
lIu.3t Jlln.31 SI~- 0ed1
.42 .40 .42 .36

.....

2001
2112

.38
.44

.41
.42

.46
.38

2IQ3

.32
-'5

.31
.JI

.35
.~

c.~

QUAR_TO_PAII

10.6"

8.0%

BRE PropertiIs,

."
.38

.v
.~

.....
Met31 JWL30s.pUO Dc31
,.
.39 .39 .39 .39
2DDD .425 .425 .425 .425
2DtI
.465 .465 .-465 .465
2002 .0488 .488 .488 .488
_
.488 .488

FuM
y....
1.60
1.69

1.60

1.35
1.50
Full

Yu,
1.56
1.70
1.86
1.95

1.111
UO

6.4"

6.8"

n.O

263.7
83.7

271.8
80.6

3U'I
1611.9

31.'"
1618.0

~O
~O

7..511, UI
1.511. 6.511,
264.0
315.0 368.0 315.0
517.1 46U
457.3 123.0
765.0 825.2 801.1 784.0
55.9% 54.2'1. 51.3,.. 52.0%
4.310 4.51
4.5%
6.1"
7.11 1.4'
8.S%

u'"

7-"0

fOl'lll8fly BankAnBEl

8.9'"

9.610

Realy, Ii

10.1'\

Seatlkl,

>11.110loInI&RooIEIIl*oII

(7,.

ZIO
71(1

29.1'1

IU%

~OO

CcnrIICIlShsOu1sf1l1J

511.00
1m

AqAnn"JEIldo
R*IiYI PIERdo
AqAnn11l1v'dYWd
JDO GrDIIInCDl'ltl$rllll)
10,0 NIIPrvt1(W)

1.D5

235.7

It.l%

15.0
1.U

5.'"

JIO

1as

... "" .. __

2061.1
ZI>II
Z3>O '& RuI Ell ~r
..
H'
HI LouR ..... llnllI
5.111,
A"IIInWulPlkl
181.0
150
35lI Short-T_ DIbII~1
992.8
1000
11. loftgTtnlDIbI.(W)
851.2
155
110 SIIr.
46.2% 41.0% 44.0% CIP Fundi \0 101CIP
4.1'
of.'" 01 ExpInHitoAssttl
7..4'" 1.n 1./1'1 RIUnCIITo1IICap'

1t.2%

HI
7,~

5.'" 5.'"

9.5%

1.5%

I.5X

R.....

500
1.

I5lI
"1,",
..""
1.5"
11.0%

OIIS1.-.Equity

12%;San Diego, 22'1.; loI AnQeIes, 13%;aIhlIr. 19%.Has

=~=%;=':::~%.':oo4:~f

'Nashi1gkrl. UWl, tll:! Orwgon. PorIoi:I .. 12J31!V2:properly inveftnents. 99%; ~


800 other. 1%
...... 1D...c8I d N8l
()per;rtiIg

IlllXll'l8 by IIWt&t: San Frtnc:bco.

25%; Phoenix.

9%;

drop a bit
this ye&r_ The demand for multlfamlly
properties. which account for the bulk of
Its invesunents. Is largely determined by
the level of employment. In BRE's case.
the employment level in San Frandsco. a
major market for this REIT. is especially
Important. And San Francisco was a prime
benefldary
or the high-tech boom of the
late 1990s due to Its proximity to Silicon
The eamlnRs on BRE's properties
ben
ted &om botIi the higher occupancy
rates and rising rents that resulted rrom
this Increasing demand. More recently,
lower employment in the hfgh-tedt fields
has produced the opposite results.
In the
fl.rst quarter of this year. tor example. the
average rent roc BRE's multifamily units
fell 6%. The declJne would likely have been
even worse had It not befo..n for continued
brisk demand In southern California. another BRE marl<.et. Due to the high lIxed
costs of any real estate operation. the rent
decline caused. a wider drop in operating
income. The absence
of Income from
properties sold aver the past year 01" so
and not yet reinvested has hurt. too.
We think the picture wID start to Immay

Q-g.: DE. Chnm.: J. McM.han. finis. & CEO.: Frank .C. NrDowvlL
Address: .... Moti\iuilll!l) S'tnlIIt, San frwK:Sm. CA 94104-5225.
l&lephon8: 415-445-6530. k1IIImlII: www.tnpropwties.com.

later this year. A stronger erooomy would heir. Results wUl also reflect the
completlon 0 a number of development
projects that art!: slated to come on stream
over the next couple of years. The company's good finances will enable it to pursue
growth opportunities despite the weaker
operating picture. Over time, BRE"s strong
position In rich markets, where rompetiUon will likely be Umited by land shortages and envlr1Jnmental regulations, suggests a pickup In earnings growth.
BRE
stock bas investment appeal on
several counts. Despite Its price rise In
recent months, the yield Is generous. espedally in comparison with the meager retwns
now avaUabJe eJsewhere. 1bat
usually Implies a high level of risk. But
BRE's payout looks adequately c""ered by
our earnings and cash flow estimates. Furthcrmore.
BRE's Ilnandal
picture
Is
strong, giving it ample borrowing power, If
needed. The stock's total retwn prospects
are enhanced by the likelihood of moderate
apprec.latlon. based on a growing and more
productive portfoBo, probably accompanied
by a richer market valuatton.
MJlton Schlein
July 25. 2003
prove

fA) F..:aJ ".


ends JuJy 31., bIItn 1995;:l j43t- Ext1 ~
.. 1113gaiD ~ 'B2. $2.04; 5ep . OM:.
CaJtndlll"yurtbwUl:a.
'93. $1.20;"96. $1.73; 'tJO. $0.7'9; 111, $0.31; {D)lnmkJns,.:Iju5llKIforsb:ksplt.
(8) &.Jd on bII. shI. oubbllldi'lg ~ :97. lJ3 ('=! ~),
$0:49. Egs. ntIUI dw atIl Oct
diJhd ~.
EJd. nome:. gin n 90. {tl bividends h~
paid ~
.....
.Aln.,
CI ZOD, YIlIe lJIe I'IltIbIWIlI. Int. N riItls~.
fltllJll ....
a dIUined rn. _
~
ID lit nliItIIe ... is ~
wIta...-..1ie5

THE. PUIlUSlO
1If1..,.1le~

pII'....

18.9

6.1"

I!lll.l:.\:

ZIOZ =.0

14.4"

117'3.8 BRE"s share earnings

1038.0

SUbordiTllltBdDebt(mil1.)

14.-4"

1lotO
110

1M -tuhAl:W'pII'lII
1.50 EaningI
110 DlY'daDldaperlllc

t.

=:~id:i~1:.: ~~
Inc.,
~:1'~:g~~m:abu~~~:S~=~=
BUSliESS:

15.55 Boc*YllulpII'IhA.

Z.5D
f.,J5

~ro~63~~~_~__
=~

23.36

11.9

1U5

2..59
1.60
1.95

32.84

~~~~6S~~~M~~~~05~

.48

MARKET CAP: S1.5bIlL


fUNDSFLOW(SrnlL)
N profit Plus

1717

15

ts.1I)1 RrSi'ONS&.r1"ollNl'f ERR~ ORCIIMSSlONSKIl


... ~"""'islh:tj'b~IOMI,-.caN_ciaL
-*. gnd 01 ~
illIIJ..-.s. ~
D1__
D11all ill ~
....-.g.,

.....

1lIMQDI'Ii:

t_

rI 8IIJ' .....
iItmIIltl!e.
No pili
pdIbliaII...a II plIdod.

ec.p&n)".

F...

ncIIJ......."

StochPrtcd1d1111y

PI1cI GrawtII ~
ami. PI'IIlIddl6I1y
I

'.

: II:

B<t+

100
60
95

II-

CAPITOL FED. FIN'L

3 l_".mll

TKEUIIESS

2 ..... ,,"5O!
3

SAfm

'C.'"

IITA .70 O.lll- .... d)

..

29.671~m41.8(=~;:.nW~2.40~

..,

High:

-.,

.....

,-,

Prito

GU

011Q2QOOtl

:10>'- ....;
~~~-

:-'1-' I

.'"

22

I~~.

1m
33

,
4237

29
22
355Z

31

3851

......

'ha"'"

Adnnc:n

..
..
..

mil.

$3200.0

{75% ......

UnCillpitl.1Dd:

Annual rentlls

('2" ofCap'Q
$3.8 mil

hnslon Uability None


PM Stock None
Common Stack 73,184,062
as of 5I6JD3

SM.

YMM-Co.

MalVin

...""""'(....1

.............,
=:r~

....

2002

5.60

'.80

'.39

1.66

125

2002

3131103

106.0

-535.3
-37.7

--

--

20111

Put

Put

1nn..

61"

----

a:m':~
.,...,
1...

.....

--

.......

Esl'd ... 12

--..

--

3131103
5.67
<4.42

-1532

-25.0

ANNUAL RATES

11.0"

g,,,,,
12.5%
NIoIF

..
..

---- - - --- D_
....
- Book VelUIl
r

ZG01
ZOIII

......

1.""

Dec.31 1Iar.31 Jun.3D Sep. 30 AKOI


v.,
3962 3979 3911 3956
4029 4092 41Z7 4266
4431
4391
4313
4324
4354 441
45111
4a21 mNJ

.,
caJ.

IIIf

ZOII2

SAYllGSOfIlOlIrS II IIRjA

~SPBSHARE"
v.. ,
E_ Dee.3, ..... 31 Jun.3D S,p."
,11
,21
.11
.2S
.24
.24
.26
.25
.28
.29
.36
.29
.40
.17
.f'
.f'
.JZ
.21
.H
.2'

,..,,

_TERLY

lu.\'

..

Jun.30 S'.jo 000.3'

.10

.'0

.11

.12

.14
.18

.15

.16
.20

1"1
F_'_
....
B DilJ1ecj'.-niIgS.

.19
,23

~~

PAIDC

.11

.22

.-

..
..
..
_.

..
..

ZOO,
6."

-139.0
320 ..

loa"
S'
Depostts
F~~I1C8S&
Other Borrawing

..
..
..

..

EARN .. GS FACTORS

~~~F=YI.1d

..

..
..
..

IIARKET CAP: 52.2 billion (Mid Cap)

Margln(%)

..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..

OtMr LT Debt $91.2 mil


Lases,

.1
.12
,17
.2'

5.... -

Nrtxf 8lWlWlgI repCl1 due

md-Aug.

.90
.99
1.12

.to

UI

.",

'IA'
.30

.46
.62
.78

..

..

..

..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..

--

..
..
..
..
..
..

--..

..
..

--

..
..
..

-..
--..

..

..

..
..

..
..
..
..

--..

--..

..
..
-..
..

..

----..

4D9.B
61.7%
42.9
381%
10.5'"
6539.3
1345.0
1(1.16.5

..
..

16.0\

21,2%

..

.-

..,

il.,

... %
4.'%

'02. $1.22.

'-Iy

Noll.

ExclJdes

",i1 .~ """"'";:
spEiIf di'lidends:

....-w ......

12

......

, "'-.
..,.
,.

'" TOT. RElURIIIIIIJ

,"
,,,.
,,,.

..

11.6
112

,,>I

UNE
Mlle.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 oVALlE
94.13
96.21 103.17 fOO.70 fBU51011&1. l,unl JIll' Ih
17.15 SaWng.1lopooIIo .- '"
4126
53.30
59.71
.1.10
1.0, Elnings pit It! A.
.90
.99
112
.10
.42
.74
57
.11
Dlv'd. D.tI'd,.1h
C
11.78
13.04 13.42 1110
fW S... _.-'"
83.72 . 41 73.1\
7.00
7000 "-'"
SIlo Oubfg D
11.9
16.9
'91
IA'gADD
,n
R_PlE_
.BI
1.01
~
3'%
31%
AV; Ann' DlY'd 'tIIId
'A%
G<ooo _.
(lniI)
133.2
591.1
186.6
510
68.7%
Inl
Colt
to
Groll
w;
66.7%
631% 15.0% 15.0%
15.,
89.6
78.3
n.B
7<0 Not P!DIt (s--)
36.B% 36,9'11 39.1% "-Ill 1t.0lI
11IlI
lUll
14.3' 13.0" 15.3\
NotP!Dlt
1700
8266.2 8635.4 8181.1
1500 'alii Auob 1I,~1
FNl8 __
'
IlOG
IlOG
322> . !ZOO 3200 .
981.4
9661 10483
110
100 SIn......... ,lnIi
.0601 1172.' '53iJ3
... 10.. 11>_("""1
'114
.08%
.09%
,16%
.llI
.llI PrabIa AuIts to Ln,
;;;;;'12.11
11.91
11.2" fUll
11011 G&A. Exp 10 Gross Me
10.6" 11.7" 11.'"
11.6"
EZ%
,90% 1.02"
RKIn CIJ 1D111AuIb
.7~"

roo:oollUS

"00
1.10
f...
"10
10.00
fO

t."

-~
.....-... ~'"
-~=

-..

1.11

7.4"

9.1"

..,,,,,,-

Rtium ....

Om.

flO

1t.0lI
15.1"

moo

11JllJ

ns

I""
.fll
7.0lI
1~0lI

.""

I''''
aa:ounts,

Wllb: WWW-'llpfecl.com.

boosting nonlnterest income. Credit quality should remain strong, since the loan
portfolio primarily cans.ists of conservative
residential
mortgages.
Also, we boUevo
that management will continue to bUy
back outstanding
shares, thanks to strong
capItal levels.
The stock"s 11melJness rank has faDen
two ootches
to 3 (Average)
since our
April report,. due malnly to the recent
earnings shortfall. 'Tho stock's PIE ratio Is
quite high because investors are wt1llng to
walt for Capitol t':J.ay out another spedal
dividend at yeare
which was $ 1.22 last
year. The company has a very strong capttal base; therefore. it can afford these
large distributions to shareholders. Moreoyer, if Capitol believes that its reserves
are getting depleted,
It could W1detgo a
second-step converston, enabling it to raise
even more money. The stock has also been
buoyed. by the recent cut in taxes on dlvldend. income. Investors seeking CWTent Income should consider this stock, but its 3to 5~year potential is 1lmIted because the
PIE ratio will U1<e1y decline to a level more
In Ilne with Its ~.
Joseph Spalilat
July 25. z003

"""'-:1.: ...._-

S1Dci"s
rb S'taIllItJ
Price Grvwth ~

Earnl.
.....

EqWIJ

710
11011

CEO: John B. Di:us. Inc.: KS. Addr.: 100 Kansas Ave.

Topeka, KS 66803. TIl!lI.:785-235-1341.

p..-a ..... .....-r*5

*dIIIic"

L'"

..'"

L.,.

UG

etude powbooli: IIfICI lItftImftrt Sin'iIgs, mooey rnnsf


NOWand nonil'*ns1 beamg dMK:t~lI.lDilns III: 8i3O/02: 96% rual
8StatB; 4% CDIISWTB'". Ha 700 ~
c.p. Fed. Sft. a.nt owns
71.4'10of sh.. ; 0Ifa. & diD . 3.2% (12m ~~
CIm'Il.: Jolin C.

(011''-''

.,.

"
"20
"
32

n.,'

Capitol
Federal
Financla1's Marchquarter results were weak. (Fiscal year
ends September
30th.) Year-over-year
share net declined to SO.17, frum $0.29.
due to an 18.6% decrease in total interest
and dlvidend income, as the low interestrate environment hurt. the company. Indeed, the average yleld on earnlngs assets
was 5.35%. down 116 basis points from the
year-ago period. and the net interest margin declined 74 basis points to 1.48%. Elsewhere, credit quallty remained strong.
We have cut our fiscal ZOO3share-net
ca1l by $0.30, to $0.00. Capitol's balanc:o
sheet is geared for a rising interest-rate
envirorunent, and the Federal Reserves
June rate cut will HkeJy hurt net interest
Inmme. Too, tho dropoll In loan sales to
the secondary market will lower nonInterest income. These factors ought to be
partially
offset by pt1stlne credit quallty
and. modest share repurchases.
The company has solid earnings prospeets out to 2006-2008.
It Is the leader
In residential
lending in Kansas. and it
wl11probably use this position to attract
more low-cost deposit accounts. Capitol
will charge related fees on these accounts,

1:'1
_ .
-t.0"'lIII

-_ ..

.......'

",II

SU5WESS: Capitol Feder.J1 Firancill is lie hot1ittg company fa'


Caplol F8dlnI S~ng5 Bank. It hils 34 tnnch loCations11Kansas
and is a llladl'l!l resil*ltill
lender Wt the 1IaI8. The bIiIInt $MY9S
rneRpoitan Topeta, Waia. Uwrtll'l:8..... nhattan. Enwm. and
Sam
II prtnarIy atntIs I8tIIiI delX'!liIs and uses the furK!s to ~
de ~
"lIS 10 CMnW-ocaJpied' midenc:lB.
Deposb

:KDl. VMIe I.ft ~~


1'I!Sl!iC'M. flCllll
.....
is ~
r- !IICKeS ~
WI be niIIae III'Id is
!HEPUIlU5IRLSJIJl
E ORN4YE1UlORSOROMSSiCIMSHRE~.11tis~ts*dJIIII~5_.RC.Cll~""1UIt.
I!5lIIIl,.IIlnIl ~
pti'Md. ....
~ ba nIIIlilll'

"I..

. ..

":;

....

'.6

.. of1l311D3

....

I'.e

~r~'
'0:'-~'.

---

FHLB

/7i'

-/

Cap~ol Federal Financial is a federal~ 1993 199. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
.. .. .. .. .. .. 69.62
chartered holding company, which !Xl'"
.. .. .. .. .. .. 42.61
verted from mutual to stocl< on March 31,
.. .. .. .. .. .. .39
1999. On that day, the company so~
.. ..
..
..
-.
37,807,183 shares at $10 per share in a
.20
.. .. .. .. .. .. 11.44
subscriplionoIferingto certain depositors.~
.. 9151
..
..
..
also sold an additional 53,705,104 shares
..
..
..
.. .. .. """"25,6
during~ IPO. The offering,led by Charles
..
..
..
.. .. .. us
Webb & COlT'4'any,neUed proceeds 01
..
..
.. ..
.. 2n%
$355.5 m~ion.
CAPITAL STRUCTURE

,...

-'I'

'.

"
.....

....... ,

....,

JIll.,

_ ....

,essiln

IiOlfOJFIIAIl
001
0 0 0 0 0 0 -':

002050005
IMUlutiI)N11 Decision.

Target Pric. Ran~


2006 2007 2008

::.~~\

Ann1ToW
Rcbn

(t~'ll
""
t:t
15%
N.
Insider O.clskma

.'"
:t:'

14.8

3.1%

32.2
27.8

29.2
202

22.'
"." ."

2IICI&4 PROJECTIONS

Z5

16.8

10.6

LEGENDS
_lfL5.I[~pVl
'"
RMllift P1te Sli'II1!1'l

_"JI"'"

TECHNICAL

I~CENl
PRICE

NDQ-tFFN

cI ~

.,.q..

UId.
D~
jlIIIKt

...

PMldaWItJ

...

100
NMF

NUF
,II.

""

HEALTH CARE PROP. NYSE.HCP I~cr44.541~oo22.8(=:~) ~~ 1.31 ~ 7.5%


lMWII[SS

SAFETY

lICHNICAL

High:
low:

l_""

33.6
24.0

32-"
26.3

_!'I...__

3.........
NeII4/11.01

2.:..;..:, ;-!ll92

IETA 55 O.Lll....... ~

35.3
28.0

PROJE<apNS
PIa
Gain ,.,~~

(+ v..,

'..

A.

'~
~:.--

...1., 'II

InstilutionalDeci_lone
'17

--

PM Sfocll $274.-487 mill.


Comman Stack 59.986.600
MARKET CAP: $2.7 bll.jllid

(26%dCap~
15M.
Cap)

fUNDS fLOW' ($mill.)


200D
Net Income ap~.1D oorn 108.9
Real E5t8t8 Depreciation 72.6
Joint VenlJJre Adj.
1.9
S.leofRMIElitabi
dl1.7
Gain on Exting. o.bt
d.28

2001
96.2
&4.1
.2.
d1.2.

Funds From Operations 171.4

179.3

2002

....

112.5

.3

1.6
-199.2.

::

1996
..

..

..

.
.

..

.
..

.
.

..

..
..

..
..

ltn

1997

19!1l1 1999

~9.6'
fiO.6

.,
51244
62.7

19.20
306

46.1'

.~

'111
2001
2D01

65.0%

.68

=: ::
.7.

.68
.73

.n

::J

.70
.74
.78
.82

.71
.75
.79
.83

!AI Pm-y B'TIIIgs ttllough W, dikrtltd


al'Iat. Next egl. mpat dUB IItII Ol1tlb5.

1,1

3D

11 ~

10

,!i
'0

.....

~'0~
-

thn-J!)

"
61.0'4

11.8

8.0%

359.6
"
64.1\

HI OIIIrIn<OlM(ImaI
11.0%
115
130 NIt ProIl(WI
31.5% ,,"'"' NIIPnlttil-i..

..

.
..

..
.
.

..

..

753.7 941.0 1356.4 2469.4 2398.7 2431.1 27.48.5 3000


J25G L.o.JI&RHlE~1
267.4 217.8 220.6 215.5 241.5 3496 267.8
20lI 110 Lonu.:T-:n~~I
336.B
442.3 595.( 1200.3 1t4oC.6 1246.7 1280.9 tM
15(JOShr.Eau1tW'/".,i
a3lf.
86'1.
85'
1l6'1.
88'1.
93%
~".
15%
.. " Dh'ds DKrd to FFO
5.7%
4.6%
3.9'
4.1%
3.3%
8.1%
1.7%
7.5"
7.5" EzpInMltoAutts
10.01
1l.41 10.61
6.01
7.81
8.81 9.51 tD.n;
16.0% R.un on TobI'CIp'1
11,K

14.1%

1''-61

6.5%

9.5'

BUSliess: Healh Canl Property lnvestn, Inc. is RBlIl Esta1B


lll'o'llS1rlWJl:Trust that invests in a 'tit5I: .-y ~ hIIIa!1ht;n retnld
propai-., irx:ludi'lg Ionltilrm c.8 facliblls ReA" rI parItW3 at
2002 )'fllln!nd1 ae:ulll care IxBpIaIs (23.6%), medi:::aI Dla butin;s (20.1%), rahabiilamn hoIplal5 (4.7%), physi:iIn group IOC
1m. (3.5"1 and assistld M1g -.ies 13.3%). Ma;rOpwn:n
n-

Elsewhere.
troubles at some
of the
company's major tenants should ketep
earnings and _from-operations
growth muted
this year. Centennial
Healthcare has fallen Into Chapter II, and
Tenet Healthcare
faces an SEC invesdga-

2OltI;'IICIIn
di:Jns.
D PN-1996

DPtdIlnds .. hin:ltil3ly pMI CIIItI'I8


day cI FBbrua'y, May, August, m:I NlMInlber.
rei"8ii;t".nt pklt a'Ni1mll.

1.7'

..

8.8%

1.0%

JIj

I.'"

II"

II ~

priRd

RftJrnQIISll'.Equity

eanpllny'l flna ... l ....


StDa's ~rk:e S'IallIIly
Pdce ~
,..bniOl
~EamlnpP"lId1'bWity

dm unnalabllil.

II ~

1/'

c.ptoIGIin""1

37
150
'7$1
""
7.5%

11.'"
10.5%

tloo on overbUllng allegations.


Manage
ment has stated that rent levels are above
the falloff that was projected, but nonetheless are down
on a year-over-year
basis.
As
a result,
we now estimate
only
marginal
advances in both earnings
per share and
FFO in 2003. followed. by more favorable
cornpartsons next year .
A joint venture with General Electric
CommerciaJ Finance augurs weD for
growth. In early June. the company entered into a $600 mlllion agreement
to
fonn HCP MedIcal Office Portfollo. LLC,
which will make acquisitions In the thrivlng medIcal office arena. Flnailclng for the
deal has not yet been detaUed: however, a
1.4 miIUon common share offering in mldJuly, with proceeds of approximately S58
rnllilon, will help out.
Investors
are advised
to look for a
more favorable
entry point before Initiat::lng a position
here.
For stal'ten,
the share price has risen 25% since our
April report, dimlnlshlng much of the
stock's 3- to 5-year appeal. Too, these
good-qua1lty shares are pegged to lag the
overall market In the coming year.
Erjk ft.l ft.(annlng
July 25, 2003

II.-.-.a

,.

elude Tenet Healhcarll (16% 0( 1IlV.), Ernerim Cmp. (6%), and


tWhSovth
Corp. (5%). Acqund AtrIl!n:anHealh PItlpliII'ties.
11199. OIJdi'. lMTl aboul: 5"" rI skd, Ii whI:h 1.5% bebngs to
fonnw CEO Ken Roath (3103 pm;y~ CEO: JImll!Il ~.
CFO:
Janes G. ~
Aadr~ 4675 MllClIIltrn
... Ccut, SuiB 900, N8wport BBKh., CA 92660. Till: (888) eo4-199C11nl: www.hcpLc:arn.

~FP\isu~~~~'=RR~~Rn:~~::::~~1hi50b:i5~b-:-=~i5::',*,:"::::~'1o~
:
cf
I'tfIIIIIDd.
i1.., ~ ~. _ fen..
IpIBIIiIg
my
~.m
-*I, -.ed

100

1/,

..

..

Its
I'"

30.01

..

..

.. ,

HI
Itn

.
.
-

31.3\

3."
It.If
11.04
I"'"

Hi
I5.n

50.31 48.7'

..

112.5

400

A'IlAnn'lI'iRdo
A AnnUIFFO.....
A Ann' ,""d Y111c1
.25 R... uesllmal

..

96.3

29.0\

21.0':::

..

108.9

33.QIf.

_8'1'"'....1*....

3.26
UZ
1M ,""d. Ood'd
<6.21 41.75
5Z15 ...... IIlNI E.......
59.41 11.50 11.50 C_
Sh."" .... <
153~ ...... __
."....

Diri:Jpd

I .., be

5.5:-

34.9'

f-1.5

-..-

72

..

able.

278
294
~10
3.26

1yr.

53.01

78.5

""l~RETURII";

..

B72

61.~

:~ :g :: ~:~

lu.31 Jun.30 SID.30 D1c:.31::

.n

::

]."'f$1

1: 1 :: ::~ :~'::
::

60

25

23.35
3.22
212
211
2<6 2.22
2>:>
2<6
262
21a
2.94
3.10
26.35 31.15 43."
48.1Jf <6.66 43.11
28.1ll 30.20 3UlO 'UO
.UO 56.39
"'~
,.,~
""~
11,.
"2'/0 154~
"..
17.7
fl.'
15.0
....
".0
81
8.0
7J
8.'
9.0
''''
'J~ '.8~
H~ 10.1% 10./% 8.6%
120.' 128.' 1615 224.7 3211.9 332.

21.

14.64
2.64

D:

ClUARTERLYllM)BIlSPAIl"

ZOOB

~~:
~~
~:
f2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0YALUEUllEPIJB lie. ....
22.1S 22.10 "54
u." U411
YIIuoI*'"
J.W
332
332
343
1M lID F
hmOpo......
U.
2.14 1.19
1.93 1.15 W
U.

AIWtCIAl.POSI11ON121311112 3131113 An adjustment


to the organizational
Senior Deb(
$888.1
mil.$1050.8
rnil'.
structure
of Health Care Property
InSubotdil1ilt8d Debt
Sf DebClCIIP'I Fu.....
.4(t1
.37:1
vestors provides insight into current
Total DebUEqUly
.47:1
.44:1
market
conditions. In May. fonner COO
PORTFOUOCONDITlON Year Ago
latest
James
Flaherty
ascended to the CEO
Mlgell Repaid inQuartllr($mil.) NA
NA perch, and named a new position
in the
Loss R8sa'Ye-MtMI5bi.
NA
NA second-tier
of management
called senior
N"_.J'~R'II_'
vice president of property acquisitions and
.:31IJ~';;'.:si::::ia
31 ::
dlsJlCl!'lt1ons. Previously, this title excluded
_
82.3 82.1 82.3 83.2 329 the dispositions angle. but with the CUJ". rent seller's market
In healthcare
real
.1
78.4
84.5
84.2
85.4 332. estate. the change was necessary. 1be
80.7 8.3 92.7 96.. 359. main reason for this Is nontradltlonal
healthcare real estate players have rotated
EARNllGS PER IlAREA
into the subsector, as their prtmary invest~
1br.31Jun." SID." Dec.31 .:-: ment veh:Jcles (i.e., shoppIng malls, office
F-=-+","i:~"";-;:":=~-=:;;;-'l--~:-l space) have: become less attractive. 'Ibis Is
2DOD .53
.55
.46
.60
214 not to say that we expect HCP to sell a
2D01
.39
.54
.33
.53
1.79 substantial portion of Its portfolio In the
2002 .42 .59 .53 .39 1.93 near fut:ure, but clearly it _wtll now be
more opponunlstlc If a dIspOSItion Is avall-

::

R.nge

2007

80

~ ..t:

"

Due In 5 YnI 1755.0

.:r

2006

3iji~~~i~~~iiji~I'
~

mil..

r.rue. Pric.

."r.>.t

~l--.

Health Care Properly 1nveslo", Inc. began 1993


iIs operations in 1985, wllen the company
..
was 5p4JII-df from National Medical Enter..
prises (currently Tonet Healttll:are) with ap.
proximately $90 mi~onin gross real estate

.......
Since that timo, HCP has bIos
somed into a weil-diversiflOd $2.6 billion
..
por1IoIio 01 real estale assets across a broad

.pactum 01 heallt!cam real estate classes.


.
Acquired properties are leased long lenn 10
.
establ~hed health care providers. Health
..
Care Proper1y ~ Qmenlly tholargesl heattl1.
care REIT in its indUstry.
.
CAPITAl STRUCTURE as of:Y.J11U3
...

Talal k1terw:st $75.0 mill..


(parfoli::l cowngll: 2.31)

iIiIii....

:~Y..

108
108 sharel
5_
a.1
1Q2.J Percent 7.5
2..Jg 253~ I_lid
2.5

Talal Debt $1153.0 nilion

33.1

i'I.~l~ "

""'.--.1'-- _.~

..

44.'

45.1
35.6

"""...,

I,ll

000001000_
OOOD01033*'
11111 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 :5 :5 ~

JQlII!

39.0
29.3

30.4
23.1

~~,~

o,w.

246~

33.1
21.7

SftngIt

.. ..,

.1Iy

40.0
28.3

I.

~ ~ (:~g~)
'~;t ~

:::..,

40.4
31.9

37.8
30.5

.0(: .......

'=:::., _. """""
~,_

,.....,.

Insld.r Declakln.
so iii D J F.

27.41
19.4'

LEGENDS
_
o.ao'~lp5ll

IIIpllDIt1

t',

gth

BoW
100
20
&0

:11:

II.

HEALTHCARE REALTY NYSE.HR I~cr31.931~ro 16.0(~~::'~~)


~~ 0.92~ 7.8%

3 RIi!.edWlIl
2 RaSed I':DtI2
TWiNICAl 3 ....,.m'3

lWEUNESS

!High:
Low:

s.vm

1ETA. .fa5

....

(1.DO. Martd)

50

27.3
20.6

30.0
25.4

29.9
21.0

23.3
14.5

21.8
15.4

-'

G* ~~

....

rennD1

'0" _:

,""

~'"

II. I

1111,1"

~1

.....,

13

I2tI2
78

:::'1 20Ji ~

18

"

-;J%:f{,
'4"1....

r.~
1Q2.

,. ~

ioi~~

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Xl2112

31.9
23.0

~.

fIll

InsUtutfonal Dlidaian.

32.3
23.8

";;!;@

'",,~

Lft'
35 t"'10%
Insldfi' OKil:lDn.
~
S 0 iii 0 J F ......
.. ..,.
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ".
_.OOOOOOOOo'~
IISIIlI

28.4
20.8

. '~4!}~
,....,,,

Pm Sl'lIIlgll

~:-

"55%l

23.3
18.4

DNilIerm p 111
............
R..

2006-08PROJE~_~
hiclI

1'2.5
18.3

23.5
17.6

LEGENDS
ua I

tt
JIJ

FWmnt.
stares

traded

III

-......

II "-- '.._'.

'I

10

,~:ti
..
;..

~~

.. .,

"-

.. ~=.

_7.5

TOT.

mD.

1yr.

.-:Jl

.1.2

55:

~~: 1~:: ~~

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 CVll.lI'fUloEPIlB.Ilt....

..

.
..
.
17.41 18.46 18.76 17.69 19.52 25.58 2516 25.01 24.40 21.70 UN
Z5.DlI lookValulpwlh
11.D
..
..
..
..
..
..
1.01 1.79 1.97 W
218
~44
~66
2.62 ~60
~66
110
110
175

_._Opo""",

-
..
..

.
..
..
_.

..

.
..
..
.

..
..

..

..
.

..

..

..

..

..

'"

..

..

..

..

..

..

32.9

..

..

..

..

..

..

20.8

..

..

..

..

..

..

2.5'

CAPrrAL STRUCTUREuo'3131.11t3
Total Debt $M7.7 mJ. DUI In Ftn TrlS163.3
mil
Total Intlrest $40 mil
(38"'afCap'l)
(3.3 x IllrinstCoverage)
No DefIned Bendt PRnsion Plan
PflI.StDctNone

ConwnonStocl 42,023,529sIIs.

IIARKET CAP: $1.3 BiOlon (Mid Cap)


fUNDS FLOW ($ITIllI.) ZOOO 2001
Net profil. Plus
No'ncash ch8rges
1212
91.7
Investmants Rllpllid
NI!'l: New Debt
New Equity
InvestmIlntsFunded
Dividends DeclanKl
FlHANCW. 'OSmoN

109.1

179.4 552..9 207.2.


151.8 520.7 218.5.
52
22.9 d73.4
8.0
3.0
4.0
96.2
100.7 106.0
12131mt
12.01J112

S..,ior DebI

$505.2

5-"'_De..

$545.1

1.33
1.15
2U3
12.80

11'
15.'
115
8."

1.41
1.83
2'.54
12.98

1.49
1.75
29.93
13.90

1.68
1.99
24.4Z
19.29

"
".3
10.2
9."

"""
13.7
10.1
7.5'

.210
2'
2210 28'
17.1 16.1 10.1 10.0
11.'
7.'
7.'
6.9
7"
10.5' 10.9' 1~"

37.8
0.8

6.5
0.1

232
1.0

32.9

78.01

91.01

93.5%
18.3

0.5

61.5%
.

61.7'

~.6%

93.4%
19.7
S2.1%
.

133.4
21.0
1081

280.8
40.4
236.3

318.5
93.0
243.5

-416.0
168.6
246.0

54.5"
97.8"
2.3%
lOll
32'1.
6.9\
3,-4'1. 6.610

92.9%
4.~
5.1%
7.5'

82.6\
4.3%
5.7'1.
8.0!.

4.0

1H

56.-4

3.4
84.04\

312

1.63
2.07
33.61
39.79

912
12

1.99
2.15
32.63
~.30

185.4

1.9

7-4.71t 84.1\
040.5
8&.3

1.82

2.23
33.70
~.31

3'
".0
9.6
."

192.2

2.3

83.3%

81.0%

w~

II5lln *-l Ol ~

376.5
81.3"
59%
1.4'1.
8.3'4

"A%

1011.1 1011.9

1008.0

1012.9

908.2

84.8"
3.8'1.
3.D1
3.91

85.1"
8.4'
6.5%
8.01

n.!!"4
8.5"
6.4%
1.9'

69.8%
9.9\.
5.6"
9.01

eo.8"
8.1\
6.1\
8.5"

.38:1
.60:1
llllest

ill.,...-.s. .............

""'M_.

uKI b ~

.(.11

80.3'10 IU,,"

......

1111"..

_--.i;: ~

1000

V.5I
C

4UlI

A'll

1PIERI1io

,.,

A'll
A'll

'1 P/FFO Rrio


1 ..... YiIId

I.IlI

UD R... uesl$rlll)
.(.II OII.lru:OIMW,
IO.n Dpningllagin
'11 NIIPnrfiiWI
4U% .... ProM.....
H' CMIItaIG*I''--\
,.fill loIn.&RallEltI~1
MO lInQT_Dll:rt.W1
1050 !!hr.
~d'
Dld'd tD FFO
U% u-sntDAsu1l
7.0% RftIm 011 Total Cap'!
.. n RDIm an 51.-. EqwI1J

lO%
7.~

1"

B'"

__
::

.15" .

1,.

91

,1.5
110

1O
10.01

t.

...."
HI
1150
7l1li
1%00
15.0%
15%

1.0"
I.D"
11.0"
1Dlalinv about 11.0nib
sq. n. The company allo proviIes "*1'l.
eglmlll'lf servas to about 49 1laI1hc:iwepruvidln lIIIIDll'Ii:fII.or
fl:lllS and dnan
own about 3.1110 rllXlII'mln IhINs. (:W3
Proxy). Chairman and CEO: David R EI'T*y. Adlha:
End lAw. Sub 700. NBstlvi1lit, TlIfIneuea 31'203. T~a:

269-6175 1nf8rnBtAdl*8ss' www ... fi.lcwlnlIIy.am.


.

3310 W_
(615)

..

Healthcare Realty won't Ukely be burt


by
recent
problems
with
Healthsouth.
The
company
leases about
27 faclllties to Healthsouth,
currently
under investigation for accounting problems.
Healthcare
Realty
bell....
that
Healthsauth is profiting from the faclliUes
It 15 leasing. and wont be deaultlng on Its
lease obllgatlons.
'Ibe cOlDpany is weD s;::.tiooed.
Most
of Heathcare Realty's
ents hold longterm leases (about IlH5
years). which
should
stabllize
results.
And,
the
healthcare environment
seems to be improving. Government and insurance reimbur.:oements to healthcare providers should
be increased
annually, which ought to
benefit
rentals.
As such., we expect
Healthcare Realty should post annua1
eamlngs advances of about 8%-10'16 on
average for the next few years.
These shares offer a large dividend
yield. The company
recently
increased
its
dividend.
which should interest income Inveslors. As such, our projections
indicate
that these shares offer worthwhile total
return potential for the next 3 to 5 years.
Adam Rosner
July 25. 2003

to"

afl..,.

205

79.8 79.9 81.9 N.'


-46.5\ -41.3\ 41.5\
42.6'
41'"
0.1
4.8
dO.1
12
3.4
HI
-471.0 1337.-4 13152 1358.8 1349.1 1292.6
1310
101.3 499.2
536.9 536.8 505.2 545.1
510

55.3%

115 Elrrinpptllh
A
151 Dh'd,DKrdpwlh"
JU5 I.oesIRollEI1""Ih
.100 CornanSh,QdIt'Q

8.'"

/Aj D.... _'


D_
h_ ......
hm pnIPIIrf)'
Em"udB! IlOIRCU1'i1g Juhll, SlIp., and Dae. lII(jiidend IlIi .... stJh611f
gailsl(losses):
~.28). MIJ noIDi due kl plan moatlble.
rcundllg. Ne:d.n\np I8part IiIte Oct.
ICJ In mllJl'll.
c ZOlloYMle liw PlIbI5lIi'4. lilt. AI fWD memd. FKI'-l __
n.1IbaiB hIII_
Il*wd
reIIIR IlI1 is f'CIW*lI'" .....,
III MIJ bid.
THE PlIIUSK"R IS NJ1 RESP'ONSElEl"0Il:MY [RIlQ:KS OROMISSOtCSHE1lE".1lIb~ilsh::lyb
~t
...... rea"'.cilLirWnlluse.fiklplrl

'az.

1DC1
U'
J1U
'1DC1

41.B2
3"
16.3 _~
112
::

2.3

BUSINESS: HeaII1care Realy Trust Inc. is sel-lministered and


~
(REIT)
se -managedreal ....... IrM'OnllIll trust
t~ awns and op....
lBa' estItB PIOpIWeI and mortg;1g81 i'I l1a hlldhcaIB
IfII'Vices I8dtl". The company'. ~
.. beatBd i'I 2B tIMlIs
tlmJghoul: the UnUd Stm .. hi. of 12/31102. the axnp8ny t.l
aOOUf $1.6 bib
IirYaAId ... 221 i1c:lxne 1m1uci1g prtlplIffiIs,

' ' ' '.-:11,81

1.84
2.39
30]1

1921

__ Healthcare Realty's results remained


Oat in the March quarter. The top line,
.49:1
which decllned
a bit In the first quarter.
YearAga
was sluggish due to property sales and a
$2.9 $3.9 weaker real estate market. Results are
"".IE_Acq.
$42.1 $21.1
also being hurt by a reduction In mortgage
DeYBJop.inv.
NlA
NlA
income
caused
by mortgage
prepayments.
CaIllIIAR1BlLYREl'EllES~oIl Foil
Nonetheless.
Healthcare Realty 15 doing a
.... r .31 Jun.31 Sea
DIe. 3' T....
good job of rontrolllng
operating expenses,
2QOO
47.8 49.6 48.2 47.8 193. which is offsetting some of the top-line
2001 48.2 48.9 47.1 48.0 1~~ weakness. We expect results to pick up a
_
49.2 '7.5 '9.5 46.0 19Z~ bll In the second half of 2003. assuming
2003 47.6 5O.a 51.0 55.4
the economy improves.
2004 50.0 5l.a 510 IllII no The company
is Increasing
its investe....
URtIIGS
PER
SHARE
A
Full
ment activity. After a few periods of UttJe
.....
1Iar.3, Jill. 31 SaKl.31 DIe. S1 T.r
investment spending, Healthcare Realty
zooa .47 ,49 .46 .41 1.82 recently invested about S25 million 1n new
201'
.47
.44
.45
.~
1.81 properties.
The
company
remains
cmn_
.44
.50
.44
.46
1.84 mined to Its taIllet of acqulrtng about $50
lOO3 .45 .50
.50 .55 2.00 mI11lon $100 mI11IonIn property annuaI_
.50 .50
.55 .10 2.15 ly. Healthcare
Realty contracted with
CaI_,_PAIl"
FRI' Baylor Healthcare to build a 133.000 sq._wr .Ir.!, JIln.30 SeP.30 Dec:.31 Year ft.-fac1llty, and aCquired two facUities
for
,.
.53
.535
.54 .545 2.15 about S10.5 mUllon. Although
the low:zaoo .55 .555 .56 .565 2.23 interest
rate
environment
is fostering
2101 .57
.575 .58 .585 2.31 some competJtJon for acquJsJtJons, the
_
.59
.595
.595.605 ~39 company has avoided overpaying for
_
.61
.615
propertl...
32:1

1.81
2.31
32.54
41.047

193.4
2.3

._

Sf DebUCap'l Funds
Tatal Debl/Equly
PORTFOUOCONDmotI
MtgesRepaid in CLI8rt8r

2002

.64
.55
215S
6.19

IllI'ICeGl,.lldII:L

C... p..... F... __


...
$tg,ct'a t'rQ:st.bI1IJ
PI'D Growth ... ..-....c.
Eamlngs PrMk:Iabllty
_
I
I
I'.
: II:

B++

100
25

es

II.

HaRMEL FOODS NYSEHRL


lIIIElIIIESS
SAfETY
TECHNICAL

12.4

High:

4 "-' 2Il&03
1
4 .....
_~_ ""'"

Low:
LE.GENDS

P~CE

12.7

13.4

14.0

'l4.Q

10.1

9A

llA

9.7

HlIl'1 ~

PrIce
GIIn
Rfturn
IIiF 50
23%
Lw
otO
+75% 18"
~;
Insider Decisions
~";
JJAIOJlO.lF
o 0 {) 0 0 0 200 ~',
{){)0 0 0 0 2 8 0 I'l'
tlltII
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 , 1
InstItutiDnal DeciaJanl

(i11S~\

..
....
'.'
?!" .
...
,
...
.,
",.,
..
....
.
...,.. .~
..
.......
1::::'"

'"

p""""

82

'7

35395

33797

1.8,

.,,1"

t="IF'FO)

=~bIe
.....

ANNUAl RATE'

CJw .. ,

''Cash Row"

Earni1g$
DMdends
Boc* Value

-=

-.

-2IIOl

2IIa2

-.
l:

355 .
21.5

68.0

""'96U'
114.1
13.8
222.2
410.1

210.0
420.2

8TfJ
170.9

'''8

196.8
3Bl~

4.5%
9.0%
8.5%
9.0%

6.5%
14.0"
13.5%

.......'"

6.5""

7.5'"

1.""
I~""

Cull1lntliab.

"' ....

133.1
251.1
369.5

215.5

39.0

Othw

""""

309 .

'66.3

306.1
355.1
33 .
883.3
171.2

CurT8nt Ass8IS

Pat
1ITn.

Put

fst'd '00-'02

'Tn.

5.'"

U.S"

.~"

QIIARTBlLTSAlES II
Jan.Per Apr.Ptr JulPer

..,

oIiJ clPer
..Yoo'

9Ol9
i19.0 B86.D
9415 1018.4 1039.5
983.0 954.6 an8
018.5 llIOl.1 lOll
185 1015
1115

1006.2
1118.7
1038.9
11511
12lll

EARtMGS PER SHARE .to.


M.P" Apr.Per Jul.PlH' Od.P.,
.30
.28
.21
.44
.49
.30
.28
.24
.49
.36
.23
.21
.34
.14
.15
.3Z
.
.40
.J2
.31

~51
124.1
3910.3

41t1
43TII

.,

Yoo'
F1.20
"1.~
1.35
146
1.11

QUARTERlY DlVllEIGS PAl) t.


M.r.31 J.. .30 5.0.31 DIl:3t
.062
'III .062 .082 .082

Yoo,
33

2IIOl

2IIa2

.....
C0l-

17.7%
12.M;

,..,

2001

=:

.0B8
.1193
.098

.0B8
.1193
.098

.0B8
.1193
.098

.105

.0B8
.1193
.098

,h,

",

, , ..,

""
JO
25

--

lD

lD

...,

3S
.31
3S

3211

...

_7>

.... ,,.....
[=

.. TOT. REllJIIlIIIDJ

17.8%

11.2~

1995
1996
19.86 19.99
.14
1.03
.19
-"
.19
.30
.63
.79
.n 5.01
153.40
161
211
1.06
1.33
13~ 1.'~
30462
1.2%
5.3%
312
41.7
I1j
110.'
36." 34.5"
2.~
'.0'1\
441.5 4569
11,0
t27.0
731.0 185.6
'62~ 9.7"
112~
16.5"
10.6%
5.4'"
36~

' '.02

_,

.I

,~
,~.
1~.

1997
1998
21.49 22.1'
1.05
12.
.
.70
.31
.32
.77
~1
529
'.52
151.55- 47.23
19.4
10.1
1.11
1.05
1.3~
2Jl~
3256.6 3261.0
6.i~
7~~
51.9
603
106.1
1219
36.7' 36.3\
J.O'I\ 3.7'
.,0.8 "9.7
1002 204.9
1012 8133

.,

11.3"

12.61

132~
7.3'1.

15.0~
9.1'

'" "~39~

1999

2000
2001
23." 26~1 29.704
1.70
1.57
lB7
1.09
121
1.10
.JJ
.15
37
.55
.72
.56
6.31
1.18
' '''.66
172
14.~ 16.5
JIl
i4
.65
In 1.0~
1.7"
J357J
3615.1 4124.1
1.9'10 .9~
95~
65j
64.1
90.2
159.6
1702
111.'
35.0' 35.6% 36.0'1\
4.4%
4.8'
'.6\
368.5 463.1
"'.7
IM.7
1459
461.'
641.1
813.9
995.9

,...

' ' .72 '''~l

16.21
19.0%
13.3'
JO%

2002
2003
2004
3a75
28.25
1.97
210
2~
1.35
1.46
1.11
.39
A'
.47
.51
1.1,
6.06
015

m.

,,,.,
.

18.3

1.00
1.6%
3910.3
10.'%
832
189.3
35.6~
.!~
551.1
oC09.6
1115.3

17.4%
19.5\

13.5%

13.4%

18.3~

11.0%

139%

131'"

12.2%

,...

...."

... '::-~

-21.8

-25.'
-1DJ1

31.1
15.2

.1.8

eYAl.UELMPIli,~t
SaM. pI ... h A

A.

-C .... _""'"

Earnings pII' III


Dtf'dl Ded'd p.... h c
Cop" Sponcing ""oil
Boall VIIuI per III Q

IX"

-...... ....

"0 ..

1IIIfKIn:5M

An,,'

DuIsf"

I:

AlII
PIE ROo
R_PIERdo
AVSIAnn' Div'd Yllid

" 16.5l1
"'. 0

SIll"""

ld11"

""

35.>lI
till

..."05...

230
35.511
53%
5~

m
"30

0.-(10011)
Not PtollllWII

mcomTuRN
Not_M_
WootlingCoo' 1100111)
""'g.1 ... _( ... /

Sh,:Ea... ,..... i

'~5!4 It5l\RIbn .. T~CIp'


11.511 11.511 R_ ....... E.Nit.
1~0lI 110ll RmndtoCllI'IEq

11.1.
l~
246
.51
.15
lt~

",......
1.10
13%
5100
120"
100
J20

'"''

Ull
100

,..
,"

..

1151

11.5"

11'"

28~
AI DlY'dl tD Net Pral
18~
BUSINESS: Ibrrel Foods Caporation
is an i1tIlmlftonal miIInu and "pendent food !L'kns iI I_ 50 sates as weI 0'l'fnllIaS.
faaur. Ind rnannr d lDMuner-branDed mea1 and food p-ocl- Has abalt 15,500 employws and 11,600 RICD'd sh;nhokltn. The
uds, Whi::hIhI Pd h5h, tuzwl, and, 1iIIlCIUd, mcked, .~
tbmel Foundation lMTlI 46.3% d cormDl'l RIdt; d ~anI
Q!Inned. WI!lJ..tnawn brad i'1cb:M: HomrJI, AM)I riNDf, at... dftlctn, 2.8% (12m2 Prmy). Chairman, President, and CEO: .bel
B1, SP.w, Dtnty Moen, Jannie-O, lIMy 1<IchMf. l.1II Siz:zIwl,
W. Johnson. Inc.: DE. AdlHss: 1 HcnnlII PlIK8, AustiI, MN 55912Chi-Chi'" and 1(;;1" KlcMn. Diltibules produdllD suPllRTllrt8ts
3680. Telephone: 501-437-5611. InIlmIlII: www.hcmlelcam.
32~

Honnel is contending with a difficult


business climate. The global protein
oversu&ply, whim began early last year,
when
ussia temporarily banned poultry
imports from the U.S., continues to pressure se1llng prices for the company's con::
plrit and turkey products. Low live hog
prices. a result of the protein surplus. also
remain a rnaJm- problem. since Hormel
purchases most (now about 90%) of Its
hogs via longterm procurement contracts.
which ensure it a steady supply of quality
pork and enable it to even out its raw materlaJ costs over Ume. In fact, in the first
quarter
of fiscal 2003 (ended January
25th), hog cOntract losses totaled $46 mUlion, versus a loss of S18 million a year
earUer. because locked-in contract prices
exceeded the spot-market rates for hogs.
And whUe hog prices are expected to gradualIy increase from the CUJTefl.tS30-perhundredWei~
level. we think the company will rea
further procurement amtract losses in the near term. These losses,
along with higher pension and medical
benefit expenses. should squeeze the bottom llne and offset advantages frun a
more ravorable product. mix..

I~F_,.._........
....,mO .. '.'tr-(6;l "'-"" ........... _,
~"fg

PriceRan~
2006 2007 2008

15

113, M.,..Aug..'' '_'

"" ""

OANfY[RRORSQR0I0IS9ONSHRElN.~il.*tIJb~-._
IIIr1JIII'i*d. te2ri:. IhI -.
b ~.

-**'9..,. fIi*d.

pe'!.ed

d_ .... '." .. ~~

UIl,id.-nll_.

IIII!IchIni:

""

The company condnues to move its


growing portfolio of products up the
value ladder. In order to boost its profltabUity, Honnel is selling more of its meat
products on a branded, rather than tommodlty, basts. 1llis strategic shirt ought to
persist In the coming periods, pardcularly
as the company looks to expand its foodsernce business and to penetrate overseas
markets. Honnel is also apt to step up its
advertising efforts In order to buIld brand
awareness and strengthen market share.
Honnel shares are
to lag the
market averages over
e next six to
12 months. But their r1sk-adj=ted totalretw"n potential to 2006-2008 Is a~
in our view. Honne1..led by veteran CE
Joel Jotmso~ is a well-managed. food com
pany. and Its ftnandal perI'onnance should
improve significantly once the U.S. econo~
my heats up and the hannful protein glut
Whats
diminishes.
more, we think
Harmel's stock. will trade at a higher reIatlve price-earnings multiple, as the company further evolves fn:ama mestpacker to a
Croducer
and distributor
of popular
randed. consumer products .
Justin Hellman
May 9. 2003

B BaEd on ftWIIgIIlhIns ~jng


~. Mild NI11ings rep:wl due IldI May. CCI
..... ble. (OJ IndUd85l.O.
i'ltlngi)Ie!L In '02:
tt.... gh"&6; dlulld therNftw. ExcIudeI nonN8xI: div'd meeting .. Jun. Goes u i'I md$366.3 mill, $2..65Ish. (E) In mlions, edjusted
I1ICm1nggans (1Dss): 111, 34; '98, 13; '91, 2; Jul Div'd parmentdas: abotlI15th d Feb.,
forspils, (F) Doesnl 101M!clue to 1tllMJdng.
Cl lIIlJ, .... lile
reerred. F.a.- ....
is ....
hIIrII mIItes ~
Ia lie rlIIiIllIe ....
iI ~
....
~"
Un!..
TltEPl&JStERIS1fJ1RE
"'1..,." npDdIced.lIISil. ....

r_rget

24.0
19.9

--- -,.
, -",

",.""
, '

,-"

IIARKET CAP: $3.2 b1Dkm(lild Cap)


CURRENTPOSmaN
210'

ea:'':;;''

2 .2
20.0

27.3
17.0

13.ti

401-1

1991 1992
1993
1994
1990
19.98
17Ai 1.50 18.36 18.61
.60
1.01
.73
.18
.i7
.51
.57
.61
.66
.n
.13
.15
.1.
.22
.15
.23
.15
.3S
.43
.22
3.35
J!1
4.31
.20 J.72
153.JJ '53.ill '53.2> '53.34 '53."
11.1
17.0
13.9
15.8
15.'
1.11
1.09
.91
.96
1.00
1.6%
1.51'0
1.0'1\ 1.3~
of 1125103
1654.0 J064.i
6.6%
73~
Total Debl $422.5 mil. OINlIn 5 Yrs $55.0 mil
36.6
J22
IT DRbt $406.7 mil.
IT trWat $28.0 mil
l00!
11B.0
(,.~ "'Cap'l)
31.5" 38.3"
Laun, Unclp!tlized
Annuallljntl~
$10.31111B.
3~~
3.8"
No De&lMI Bend Pw!nslDnP.....
392.1 4433
10~
5.7
PhI Stock None
510.9
661.1
17.5%
17.6"
Canrmon Stock 138,.f19,515Ihs .

Receivables

21.0

60
60

...

23.1
15.5

3
1~

1987 1988 1989


15.08 ".96
1517
.70
.52
.62
.30
.39
.11
.DB
.09
.15
.11
.22
1.43
m 31
153.41 '''.30 '53.30
111
133
13.'
11
1.15
1.13
1.7'
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE u

'"

19.7
12..

Y.lO

,".J ~ "'"
oec;:_...,.~
""..
<.

2lIOH. PRUJE",!"NS
Ann, TrrtaI

3-5763-

16.5
11.8

_
n.5."'t. ... ~1h
- RdIliwe PrU

IIETA .liD (1.110. ~

l~cfI([ 23.o11~Tll15.9(=~:m) ~~ O.981WJ' 1.9%

:1'QpM

pUIbIimL UI'Ib a pradIt1

SlDeh Priel StablIty


Pr1c8 Growth ~
Eunlngs P..-eta...."
I

,.,

100
55
85
:,.:

II,

OLD NAfL BANCORPI ,..~I


NYSEONB

lIlEUIIfSS

4 _,,,""'

SAFElY

1""ID1.'l!I

TICHNICAL

3 """,,,"

:::gho
ow:

1. 3

12.6

16.3
15.5

152

25. t
'&0

18.6
15.5

RetunI

Gain

4.
3.

..,

'.'~
..1.

,""

13"

-. ....
....

'" , :u

26
10711

35

.....

:u

3
2

,.ho'"

41

...

...

200'

Funds 80mJwed
~1",",_
Net
_

_v_....,

""""

1...'
loan lass ReslV.

..

ANNUAL RATES

Loon.

Eamngs

Dividends
!loot
Tal

A!Mta

.....
CoJ.

13~'

...ml

..M!l

6616.4
685.3
1050.0
639.2

6439.3
918.3
1397.9
740.7
1111.4

6320 .

9080.5

9Iln

701.7

Oil""
l.JABILrrJES($mIlI.)

89.

742
p...

1ITn.

Pas1

........
$.""

7.S"

1.""
..
5"""
""
LOI.IIS~"'1
.p.
7.0"

'.5"
8.010

4.0"

1Iu~1 JUl. 30
5818
5956
6191
6259
5651 5812
5556

31
6190
6191
5740
5ISD
l7lIO
5900
EAIlNIIGS
PER_

O.d1

-_ -- 2lIIIII

2lI01
2G62

2101

....., .,,~t
CoI-

2lIIIII
2101

.oJ.

'nd"
1.

2G01
2102
2103

Jun,30SiO:'so
.36
.36
.33
.3!1
.41

.35

...
...

'I

26.2
16.5

25.2

24.2
21.0

212

-- ... . ..
-.',

.,

"

1995
S2

i6

...

1.09

.42
7.74
B.52
53.B3
".36
16.B
152
1.12
.95
2.6'
2.7'
4822.6 5368.6
29970 3479.3
1811
203.8
6.7
11.0
3!1.2
".B
142.8
1523
S1.7
602
27.'\ 29.4'
1.07ll 1.12\
81.5
74.6
428.1
4511.5
8.5\
80'

Target PO.::. R.n~


2006 2007 2008

--~.. --- ..

.,

627'

6059
5682
511

Dec.31

.24
.311

.43
.42
.42
.41
Al
,4%
.43
,43
,4>
,41
IlUAR1BlLTD_PWO
.".31 Jun.30 Sop.3lI Doc:~1
.128
.14
.14
.14
.147
.1.7
.147
.147
.154
.154
.154
.154
.162 .162
.181
.181
.19
.19

.011
y",
1.31
1.51
1.71
1.17
I.ID

'wI'

y..,

.55
~9

.62
.69

1997
t.1f
.46
B.08
5256
18.9
f.'"
22'
5686.4
3756.0
2191
21.0
41.1
154.4
60.7
2B.6'
1.07'1'
112.1

.m
8.4'

64.81

56.1%

12.1"-

l>."

127"7.6lI

41'

."",,'

...

..-......

'10 TOT.

8.01

39'

"'"

~
1999

4!M.6
B.OlI

lOGO :~~:
131
1.51
I."
.54
.59
.62
.95
'.00
'.'2
$4.74
66.49
64.23
17.9
19.1
15.0
1.02
124
.n
21'
27'
6982' 8761.7 !lO8O'
.7800 6274.5 6Il58.6
21;9.' 281.3
236.'
21;.0
21;.7
11.5
67.
101.7
113.0
185.6 228.0 245.1
81.4
!l9.0
B27
24.0% 256'
2U~
1.091\
1.18'
1.00'
663.0 .132
1050.0
621;3 6392
4927
7.'%
7.1'
7.0"

~~Ol
1.71
.69
11.60
63.86
14.3
.7B
28'
9612.6
5681.9
289.4
33.'
142.0
251.B
109.6
21.8%
1.14'
1391.9
14tH
7.7lI

66.7%

68.5"

11.6%

66.7%

59.1%

16."

14.0"-

15.5"9.2"
'1'

14.8%
8.9"

1J

1.32
.48
'.46
5236
19.5
1.01
f....
6166.0
4112.8

21U
11.4
54.6
15&.1
71.7
282'
1.16'

--

..

,,
9.41
35'

23'

10.6%

37'

..,

7.8"

related income may remain weak for


the balance of 2003. The pressure on its
net interest margin. which has contracted
fm" four consecutive quarters, probably wUI
persist until interest rates change dtrectlon. The very low interest rates are
~
difficult to adjust deposit rates
to d
in yields on loans and investments. And with loan demand soft. In Indiana. and the rest of Old's manufacturingintensive region, low-yielding investment
securities comprise an lncreastng pordon
of the company's Interest-Jncome-eamlng
assets. Old Is increasing its focus on loan
generation. and may be able to raise the
portion of loans In the asset mix. But net
interest income may not strengthen much
for a few more 9uarters.
Moreover. Old 5 problem loans are un
characteristicly
high. To be sure. a lot
of Old's loans that are currently clas51f1ed
as problems are either not yet delinquent,
are less than 30 days past due, or are
re:ildentlalloans that have a hJstory of low
losses, And most of Old's bad loans had
prevlously been ldent1fied as potential
problems. and had already been In-

m;

......

......
...

.....

RTURI,

na

,~.73

~.1
12.

01
1.

'~.

23.'

EamIng.,.. ....

----

.... ....

R_PlERdo
A'I Ann' DiY'd Y..kI

57110
2JO
'l/I
'7'
DO

111

"'OlI

1.05%
1m
7JO

..

'.OlI

290
>1.0
1..
2tS

, " ".OlI
, "" "'"
.."
57.'"

7-""

7-""

...

U.

lUO
.1.00

lU
1./1.

...

1_
75111l

ToIlIIAun(lniIf)

)
... _In,(lndl

35Il

lom loa Ptof'n (WJ

_In<

45.0
2311

--Elp(~l

35Il

1U Not ProIl(~1
21Ol1 IftCOlllTu. bill
7.1"' R.un on TulII AIIItI
II11/l ImITIfII 00b0 (~I

...
'-'"

...

~'"

""' ..... ...... "


1_

6
6

5111

2004 cVALIELllEPU8.~C.
A
1.1/1
t.I7
.11
.IS blv'dlDKl'd ... lhB
lJ.1/1 800II_
lU'
.. '"
0.511
11511 cnnKln $hI Qullt'g
A'll An,'1 PIE Rdo
~

l~3

..

Sh,.
Shr. Eq. to Tala! AuItI
loins tD Tot A.. m
Altum l1li SIll. Equj1)r
RmInId III Cen Eq
AI DlY'ds 'kl Hit Prof

1"

nOlI
'.lOlI
IDOO
16"

"'"
"'"
""

12'"

"OlI

bss reservll was 1.49% of Dans: hClIIplII'fcrminsJ aullts & past due
bans, 2.47% of bans & ORE. A5 d 12131m, about
erJ1)1.,
25,100 shiQhokkn.
0I"1C8S & di'8cDs an 3.67% d corrmon
AJdl (Proxy, 3103). Cham.n
& CEO: JA R5i'1g1r. Pres.: R.B.
Lantbd.
lnc.: IN. AddnIss: 420 Maj) 52., EYans'dB, W 47708.
Tel.: 812-464--1442.lnIEmBl:: www.oldr&tionaLcam.

.z.ooo

cOfllOrated Into decisions regarding loanloss-reserve levels. Still. the reserve mvered only 60% of Old's problem assets and
past-due loans at the end of March, and
the spurt. in s.our loam since mid-ZOO2
creates some near-term cred1t cost and
earnings uncertainty.
Fee income Is a bright spot. AcquJsl
Uons of investment and insurance operatlons in the past year. and expansion into
selected Midwestern metropolitan markets. are supporting some growth in fee income. The current strength in mortgage
aetJvity is also contributing to nonlnterest
income. And the unrealized gain in the Investment securities portfolio was $71 mllHon at the end of March. so Old may be
able to use gains on securities sales to offset weakness In other revenues.
In all. however. Old may do no better
than run in place in 2003. But earnings
grow1h should reswne In 2004. assuming
better loan demand and lower credit costs.
The stock Is ranked to lag the market
In the year ahead. Old National shares
have worthwhile total return potential to
2006-2008. however.
Theresa Brophy
June 27, 2003

_- -

(A) 8UK1 on diUted earnilgs p shae. Ex- $0.13. NeJj 8lnIings mpmt due IIts July.
'91,118. '99, '00, '01, '02, '03.
cIud8I ilcome (bIs) ttIn dilaJntill&l op8fB(8) Di'liierxls hilb'Kally PiIIid in n-id-MmtI,
(e) In 1'I'ikn:I, adjuPld b Ikd
spill
ti:lns. '98, ($0
"99, $0.09; eJz:I. unusual -June, -SepBnber and ~bllr.
Plus strD. diidllhds.
gall (cNrges): "00, ($0.38); '01, ($0.10): '02, dividends: 5% ., 'B7, '88, '89, "92, ~, '95, iIII,
CI ltIJ], VIlle lile ~~
reernd. r..-"... is DtUiIIed IrUIII tIUQ!5 ~
Ia be r*iIt .. i5 IIurGed wIIIIIIl....-s
III
T11EPl8JSK:R
IS NOT RE
ORAKt[RR0150RCMS!iKlNSH[REJrt.
Tm~.""'b~-'IIIM-..dIl.""ua~,...
fI'
lle'RipRdIald. II5IIIIl, ....
tit .....,
.1nJ
S!I2IIIi: ...
fIlnI. tit ClIIIll' b
. g
.,..
tltlll1ltd'!ft:"
. Ift'tb tit

,....

"
"I.
32

lD

1~.

62.21
7.11-

.34,

Est'd ""02

6.0%
8.0%
7.5%

7.5%
7.0%

1111

.111

BUSINESS: Okl Nati:lnal Banmp is iI IIIgi:lnal bank holding cnmpany wIh CMI" 140 bankillg orfi:es & 260 ATM nadlines
., Indillllil, IIIioois, Kenlucky, Tenneuel
& Ohio. and .....
nonbank"
914.8
1529.9
nancil1 SllYi::es iIfiiltM. loan porIoio: CU'l'llMrtiat, 29%; axn743.0
m&n:iIJ ,.,
..
, 33%; nSdential 20"; al/lSl,l1W",
18". Net
1511.11
PIn losses,
of nnge banS iI 2002. A5 of 3I311C3, un
9725.2
89 .
Old
National
Baneorp'.
spread

87.7

n..

..,

- _."- -'-" '-- -

10032
1991 1993 1994
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
gJ
.89
.78
.95
.60
.65
.68
.68
.36
.34
.30
31
.31
.33
II
.28
7.00
7.18
5.95
6.48
5.00
5.33
5."
5."
50.95
34.42 .. 12 "'7
28.31 28.53 31.96 33M
15.1
11.5
121
13.3
152
13.6
13.0
13.3
1.15
1.13
~ .99
.n
.Bl
1.02
3.0lI
2.4'
2.4'
3.3'
3.5'
3.3'
32'
27'
3714.5 4152.1
CAPITAL STFQ.ICT\JRE IS crt 313t1D3
2136.8 2523.3
LT Debt "529.9 mi.
Du. In 5 Yra $84S.2 "'iI.
144.1 159.4
lT~$52.5ml.
6.2
5.0
l T Debt m $150 ml. gwn.ntMd~.
beneficial
28.7
32.7
I1hIrests iI.llb. debs.
1272
1"'.6
Pension Asseb-12R2 $27.4 mIL Dbllg. $54.3
42.S
".0
26.7\
23.2'>
PId Stack None
1.14\ 1.11\
Common strw:k 63,3n,OOO shs.
76.6
10.1
IS CIf 4I3CII03
315.6
365.'
IlARKET CAP: $1.5 b1Ulon (lIId C.pl
8.8\
B"
60.8%
ASSE1S($mII.)
20112 3131103 57.5\
Loan.
6058.7
5681.9
5555.9
12.6'
Funds Sold
71.7
132
5. 8.6\
1.41
Securities
3077.6 3314.7
2248.4
Other Eillming
..- - 36' 41'

""-

19.9

12

ggJgggJJJ~

Sill 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ~
InstitutiaMI Decl.lons
>t
101..
10102
p""*,,

..,

302

,.",

~ ... II

AllOtlD.lF.A

:::.,

303
223

cg~'*-s'llCrswn

""'. 1+7Of:1

l':l:'

3U

23.S

64

2IlO6-l6 PROJECTlONS
.~
Ann,TCItII i';i
+50%
I... ider Declsionl5

16.2

3.3%

LEGENDS
_1r..ol[~~p5/1
. . RI!IIM PrEe snngIl
HIII'-2~
5I9'J

.65 n.DO.1IartI(I

BEl)

10.8

I~23.60l~ro14.1(=: 1m ~~0.82~

IInd

U1d.
I
dIIi

Carnp.~
Fnalldal snngl1l
StDck's Tic. StabIIty
Prb GrawtII ~c.
Eaml. Pndldabilty
I

I'.

100
65
90
II:

II-

PENN. 3R.E.I, T. NYSEPEI

TIIEUNESS

TICHN1CAl
ETA

RWll1tlW

High:
Lew:

2 Raised. llZ&m
3 ...... 1IlIm

SAfDY

23.6
19.0

.liS (UIl_ Marta)

MUS

~~~

....

..

23.6
18.5

27.3
20.8

25.3
18.6

21.7
14.0

19.8
1-4.8

25.0
18.3

'1:12
20.5

31.6
24.7

rarvet

Price Rillnge

2006 2007 2008


64

ildDft I~
IIII

1+45%\ ""

"I""

-:....

....

.i..

.w

-.

Pel'Dlllnt
llf\ilres

Will38

1122.1
32

20
4020

16
4291

26 traded
041S8

1.06

6.73

16

11

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~
IrwUlutional Decisions
bt.

mil

20

l!tft+--+---+--f--+--+--I-"

-. __...

1Q2II2
.41

~~
32

..

ReoIum...

lJlW
35 .'0%)
'0"
Insider Decisions
SOIilDJF.A.~
.,
000000000,.
ClIII000000000;..

.. .,
.'11
Iii:;'

25.0
18.8

s... p

~::-

GIbI

25.4
17.6

'1...
.........

......

ZII06-8lI PROJECT1ON~_
Pria

30.4
22.0

LEGENDS
0.10, 0WknI~ P 5h

"..

.."0....

-......

0453

.. ...

..'

"0

8
6

=:t=3

'I. TOT.RE11JRII IIlIJ

VI.~

1Jr.
3 yr.
'yr.

19.3

5.5
12.9

118.3

I
110.11 26.5
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 cYALllElJEP\II
lie.
1.28

6.25

1.5

5.10
1.82
1.07
1.72
6.08
8.14

5.76

1.33 1.61 1.64 1.61


1.74
111
1.32 1.31 123
1.01
1.49 1.58 1.66
1.n
1.n
U1
4.56 ... 4
6.03
5.65
8.14 8.17 8.21 8.22
8.64
223. 21..
"".
"'"
m. "".
16.6 16.'
11.0 19.'
14.'
19.6
15313.8
13.6 1-4.2 10.111.5
6.3'
7.1'
7.5'
7.2% 9'"
8.6'
CAPrrALSTRUC'TURE .. of3/J1m
Total Debl $463.8 mi. Dusil5V ... S121.0ml.
Tolallrrteresl: $35.0mil

~ =:et=1fiI:

(71%01Cap'g

Psnsion Pisn
CCIIIl, Stock 18,754,000
mi.. shares

IIARKET CAP: 5525 MiUlon(Sm_U Csp)


FUNDSFLOW(Smill.)
200CI 2001

ZOOZ

FunQs1rool

6.56

5.96

5.3$

1.99
1.17
1.80
11.34
8.65
"'1\
20.9
12.3
1,3'
21.1
5.3
48.6\
10.1
38,.
3.9
98.1
37.6
31.9
88.7%

1.92
1.03
1.88
15.48
8.61
"".
252
12.6
7.~
27.6
4.7
48.310
8.9
27n
12.4
134.2
44.0
36.1

2.23

2.15
1.11
1.88
19.65
8.68
,I..
18J
10.2
8.510
39.0
6.4
49.'"
11.0
2'.2%

2.17
1.26
1.18
1.88
1.88
19.98
17.56
8.68
8.68
345.
"'.
16.'
18.1
9.2
10.0
9.1'
8.1'
36.8
40.2
6.6
9.1
48.6'
48.8'
112
102
25.1\
25.3'
.1
.R
.5
t73.4 110.4
2S5.0
17.0
124.1 117.4
51!
'1.1
40.9

91.0'4
9.6'\

84.2'4
8.65

A'

81
9.05

H1

85.3"
9.8%

10.37

Equity

48.0
14.9
17
8

37.7
20.6
150

28.5

17.0
128
10:8

48:3
35.2
43.1
14.4
Diviclends Dedal1tCl
25.7
29.8
33.3
fiNANCIAl. POSmON
121311111
12J311U2
senD Debt
$351!t4 mil. $450.6 mI".

Investments Funded

10.00

2.65
1.7.
1.56
1.88
1.88
27.05 36.22
13.5D 13.50
166' ""
12.9 14.0
9.6
9.6
8.4' 10.0'
62..
89.2
5.0
1.1
42.2\ 40.1\
232
20.1
312. 232.
3.0
1.7
406.0 489.5
297.4 358.6
140.0 134.0
134.0If. 70.9%

2.45

8.8,

9.65

11.35

11.26.

3116
2.41
1.92
39.85
13.48
91.
1.6
8.5
10.7'1.
100.5
1.4
40.5%
32.3

2.10
1.35
2.04
33.88
15.88
195'
16.'
8.2
9.2'4
101.9
11.7
44.1"
19.8
19.4\
2.1
538.0
360.4
180.3
75.6"

2.85
1.44
2.04
36.10
16.70
222'4
11.'
8.9
8.1%
11.6
11.1
(5.6"
23.1
20.1'\
4.1
6030
450.6
188.0
71.6

32.3\

10.3
525.0
382.0
130.0
62.8'

8.5'\
U'
13.5" 10.K 10.0% a.PIt
21.7% lS.~
21.0% 23.1"
2 .9% 16.6' 15.S% 24.8"
BUSINESS: PennsylvaniaRaal EllatIllll'le5trrenl Trust, -........ n;z.l
10.35

5.1% 104% 11.4% 14.1\

Of)el8lDns
InvllllitmentSRepaid
Net New Debt
Now

6.00

iJ 19fiO, bel3nI an ~
pftaeBhip (lPJ .nrr the IhI!Wg8'"
rih The Rubin Orgill1lDtix1 (TRO). M d 12131102,
PortfDlo'"
dlId8s 45 PfOP(IltiJIs It.n *'-, some owl8l by parhnhips or
pirJt \'8lll:LnI i1 whidl the hst Ita en equly mnst lrall5JlIg tDm
25'" ma7.5"'). Wholy CM'lI8Il property ill'f8lln8nts by type 1-.:1

Pennsylvania
REIT
is perfonning
welL
Earnings and funds from operations
2.0:1
2.4:1
(FFO) for the first period of 2003 increased
PORTFOUOCONDIJ1ON
y......
a....t
nIcely, year over year, due to the relatively
Mtues- Repeid in Quart.
NtA
NJA strong
performance
of the retail
property
Loss RMerw-%IInvests.
NtA N/A portfolio. Most of Penn. REITs
retaU
Non-Earn ADets--%IlnWltt.
NtA
N/'"
properties
are
located
in desirable locaCaII.QWUfN.mA1E~"'J"
tlons. and the completion of some large
endu .... .31 Jun.30 5;D:30 - Dee.31
projects. as weD as the lea....lng of previous2DDI 499
511
538
525
ly vacant
space,
has helped
keep
oc2lI01 523 523 531 538
cupancy levels and rental rates healthy. In
ZIOZ536 581 515 603
spite of the dlfBcu1t economic envtron2D03 40C
7DO
no 7~
ment.
_
7"
,,,
1111
The company is repositioning
Itself as
CalEARtlNGSPERSHARE".
Full a retall
property REIT. The recently
..s. .. r.31 Jun.3CI s.p.3CI Dec:.31 v.... completed sale of multifamily
properties,
zaoo .48 1.13 .46 .34 2.41 as well as the acquisition of sIx retail
21111 .37 .29 .Z1
.42 1.35 properties
from Rouse.
Is adding
slg2ID2 .24
:n .49 .44 1.44 ni8cant retaU exposure to Penn. REITs
2IIG3 .Xl .45 .45 .50 1,70 portfolio. Given the weakness in the multi.ZOIC
.45
.41
.50
.50 Uti ramUy
sector,
the
transaction
should
CIIQUARTERLY
DrtlJENDS
PAllo
Filii deliver higher returns on invested capital.
endu l,r.S1 JudO SepJO DK.31 YIU As such. we are increasing
our earnings
111! .7
,'7
.47 .47 1.88 and FFO estimates for 2003 and 2004.
ZOIO .47
.47
.47
.51
1.92 The company
has lUUl.ounced
plans
to
21111 .51 .51
.51 .51 ~04 acquire Crown
America Realty Trust.
ZD02
.51
.51
.51
.51
2.04 PennsylVania REIT will offer .359 shares
_
.51 .51
of PET stock for each share of Crown,
SubordinatBdDebt

Sr Debt.CIlp'l Funds
TGlaI DebtlEqul:y

4.0
.59:1

_.
.71:1

.50

6.15

6.2\

5.7%

5.K

11.110

11.25 8oa1l vn. pll'th

US
1.
1.10
1.10
2.14
UO
J7.50 !U5
lUG
1100
......
1-_

-==

Fund,hllOI-perlltC:
ElminglperMA..
Di'dlDld'dpltlhD
LaMI&RaIEstperlll
CwnonShlOutll'g
A'IAn.1PIERdo

AvgMn'lPtFFORdo
A"IAnR'DWdYilld
190 RInl:II~cor.-(,W)A.
1lO Ot.~corM(~)

170
14.0
41.0" a"'lo-.tINIlI
".0
45,0
l.Ul' 211\

....

No1""'~I'
No1_Q

IIi

Hi ClIpHIIG*1(1IiI)

710

170 lDans & RIll E~"')

5ZO

510 Lang.:T-:,:,

DO
340
M.O% IU%
15% 1.0"
7.0% 1.n.

51u.......

~.!W)I

'SniII'

Di'd' Dld'd to FFO


&plllsatoAsN1s
RtUllanTolIICIp'
R..... an Shr .EqIiIJ

Inc. M riqt8 1'Il5eft'IIII. f8C1Ull IIIIlIIrilIl is DII**I1lIm


lIS NOT R$PON'S&.EflJ'l.Nf't
ERRORS OR OIiI.SSIONS H[!2.ElN.

TlI[ PU8l.1Sl-ER
a11-.y be ........

rnjL

-.m ~

iI..,

fIMd.

*'*'*

l1li ~

b**

to be ........
IRIy b ~

ne~is
ba md b 9IMfIIilIJ ......

., ....

is ~
-'1IIIll~
II"

.-...

r-

"'

'4,.

UO
1.55
1M
,JUS
ZlOO
NI/f
IU
17
7-'"
UD
2U
50.'"

.0.0
15.'"
iii
1000
7.
310
11.0%

1.1"

10,,,,
1t'"

11.010
12.6 1(,5% 15.'"
011aI5t, blue dep.): ilpadnenl. builr:li34"'; , ...............
ter*n,
......
,__ ",,"ow
65% incm.t pmpsr1i11s, ,,,. Of, &. Dr. own about 16% d S!od:
(4.02 proxy). HIs _tit. 1,525 sh1l~; 791 8ITlpbfeel. 01;.: PA..
CMiman and CEO: Ron Rubi'l. Pres. lIJICI COO: Jondwl B. Wet... Addr.: 200 South Broed stre&I. P~hill,
PA 19102. T9IrL:
215-87S-0700.
IntwnIll::www.~.aJm.

owns mall properties


In the MidUnited
States.
The
transadJon,
which is expected
to close at the end of the
fourth quarter, will likely be aa:retlve to
earnings
in the first year, and should
result in an increase in Penn. REITs
dividend. However, since
the
transaction
is
still sul!lect to shareholder approval, we
are not including
the merger in our projecwhich

Atlantic

lions

until

the

closing

is assured.

balance
sheet will probably
beCOJDe more leveraged.
as a result or the
merger. The company will be assuming
Crown's mortgage debt of about $590 mlf'
lion, most of which is fixed at about a 7.4%
rate of interest.
Also, the company wUI be
replacing Crown's preferred
stock. with a
new series.
Some of the increased debt
level will be offset by the Issuance
of common equity. Nonetheless. the merger and
other recent
acquisitions
will add
some
debt to the balance sheet initially.
These
shares offer
investors
a good
dividend
yield. Moreover. our current
project1ons
indicate
that these shares
offer
worthwhile total-return potential for the
next 3 to 5 years.
Adam Rosner
July 25. 2003
The

(0\) Aug. fISC.year unll W. (8) 8asIlId on ng. $.60: 111, Q4, S.n; Q3, $0.02; Q2, $0.157;al,
end m. (HI HIlI!: d ace. dllp. (11100. IV deb! i1' \CClftlPtnP ftnallCieJ SlmlgIh
sin. thrtIugh1997,dl. thenliIIW. NexI: egs. rpt $0.84. (DI Oivi:lendlhisIraIJ PIlI i1 ril-- 1998and beyond.
~
Pr1cIstatIIlty
due liItB Oct. fel FundsFrom Ops. (fFOJ: 1)3, M. , June, SlIp., 0.:. (El In II1II. (F) Ind.
PricII Grvwth,.rsiRIIaI
Q1, 5.63; lIZ, 04, $.85 03, 5.67; Q2, S.7O;Q1, pmport sh. of pEners. siKI jY'a. (GI Set. dep.
Earnl.. PNCIctaWIly
II 2lIIJ. VIlJe UIe ~

IL

IIIIIaIIlieJ
in

paMc:IliDn.

aI ., UIrL
UW. MIl pert
l1li pNllId.

To subscribe

B+
100
15
150

call '800833.Q046

PLUM CREEK TIMBER NYSEPCl I~26.271~1lO22.8G':~ frj) ~~1.35~


30."
4 l.oIe'elllTllI'J]
2 ,."n ...

lWEUIlUS
SAFEl'I

TECHNICAL
3
ETA

High~;
low:

........

..,
~Sllll

Ann,lolal
Ribn

0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0

Insttlut.JonalD~I.lon.

"'"'

In" .

'~/

.. ":

:::'1 ~

1811

tJ...

185

-'

(lT m.esl 8IiII1TIId: 3Ax; lotal i"1tEIes1 tXMHage:


3.39)
(41" ..

eo,~

Common Stoc:l182,958,461 shares


u0l4l25lO3
MARKET CAP: 54.1 bllion (lIId ClIp)

Ca:'~

ReceiviilbleS
~ortory
(Avg Colj

193.0
35.0
62.0

246.0
33.0

"".0
30[0
27.0

41.0

Put

ANNUAL RATES

lP- .. ,

...."

-1.0%

Eamgs

6.5"
,.5"
0.5"

_r

"".3' J.. .3I

JlI03

117.0
275.0
ZT3.0

:1004

2!5

OiYi:iends
Book \lalUli

ea.

_r

21101

:1004

eo.

.......
lilt

2lIOf

=:

318.0

-m:o

25.0
33.0
97.0

....1B:Q

18.0

33.0

59.D

......

5Y,,-22.0%
-12.5'4
-7.5%
1.5"
3.5"

QUAIl1ERI.Y
~1iI.l
53.1
100.0
ZT1.0

41.6
141.0
310.0

275

311
325

NIIF
NIIF
NIIF
NIIF
NIIF

F.,

Doc.!1
55.'
2.0.0
281.0

JIO
3llD
~flERSHARE'"
1".31 Ju. lO Se .3I Doc.31

.44
.32
.30
.23
.11

.30
.201
.29

.17

.~
.38

.32
l'
19
.32
.35

.J5
.J5
.J5
.
QlJARTBlLYD_I\IID'
31 Jun..30 Sep.:sa 0ec.31

.57
.57
.57

.57
.57
.57

.57

-~

{~

.57

.57
.57

163.0

Esf'd 'OQ.'02

Pat

11f ....

Sales
"Call FIaW"

---.

- ._ ....

'.

.~

.57
.57
1.14
.35

1996~997
1995
1994
".25
14.41
13.68 15.66
3.68
3.11
3.51
31'
2.36
2.17
2.16
1.72
1.67
1.90
2.00
210
.76
.2
.61
10.61 10.15
5.49
5.76
40.61 40.61 45.32 45.32
10.
11.0
17>
.71
.74
.75
..OJ
6>\
1.0\
1.B"
'1lI
578.7 585.1 633.7 725.6
37.7'10 36.4'10 35.0'10 33.6'10
54.1
54.1
68.9
701
1121
110.7 117.9 111.7
.5'10 1111
1U~ 11.9'10 18.6" 15.4'10
93.5 111.5 153.0 158.3
531.4 517.3 763.4 745.0
491.6 470.3
2230
233.
18.0% 17.9'10 11.4" 11.7Y.
5OJ'Io '7.3'10 24.0% 23.7'
13.7%
4.7'4
NMF
93"
61'
9'"

Y.r

~~

'::0

ff50
lJllO

FII'

Y-

...

,,.

Ie

., ..
-_. -

...,

....
40

J1

"

20

1.15

'.35
Full
Y.r

219
2.28
2.B5
1.49

...... ~.-. I--

1.6"

"'"

1998
999"
15.10
6.68
2.40
1.95
~ 1:J5
22ll
22ll
1.19
.37
,.71)
'.75
4532
5911
33.0
10.
1.17
1.72
7.1% 1"
699.' 450.6
30.1" 44.7'
59.7
693
15.4
92.1
.7,
1.1\
10.2'10
10.8'
129.6
59.1
942.6 543.0
533.0
405.'
7.8".4 10.6'1.
18.6'
17.4'
NMF

NMF

NMF
NMF

--

...

"'= '=

"-'".,

,.'"

NMF
NMF

NIF
NIF

NMF

118%

.IF

12..

26.
''''.
oYAllJElMPlJ8.'C.

SoIa..-'"

c~''''''din,..-1Il
Bcdr v.Iue PM' Ih

OIIIIIOI'lStlf,Outlf&
Av& Ann I PIE ROo

R_PlE

.F

'"

.....

"{lnoII1

Ii.....

D_I"".'

Lon.-'....
51".-_

.."
%2.'

1375

'1'"

'".,

Cop'1 (In"l

_.

1.44
.54
1110
11100

JI5

IkI""'.. ,.....

InaIIIII Tu RdI

.... Prui1 .....

115
100

1.45

Avg Ann'! tlv'd Y"lIId

0 .......

041
7.55

CuIl Row" ... 111


&minp..-010 A
Dh"d, Dtcrd pIf III II

IlIIII (I0oI)
I.... i"

R"'m TGtII CIp'I


L'" Rnsrn
an Shr. EQUi1y
.F

HIF

.9.6
25.'
29."

lift

RI1ainId to CIh Eq
ADDlv'dalo NIl PruI

2l'"
300
'SOD

24D5

ff.n

..''''"

fUll

Ch."pion Infl, 11193: 538,000 8C1111S


tom RMlrwood Inll, 10196;
905,000 ac:ms from S.D. WIII1IfICo., 111"38.'02 !lepr. rft!: 28.6%.
Oft'Jdi'. IMJ1 1.Z'J', 0( c:urrmon (4103 prury). Has abotll. 2,050 empDyees. Prmident and CEO: Ri:t R Holey. kiCCljXii.11: DE. ,.
cnss: 999 Thill Ave., Seatia. WA 98104. TelephonB; 208-4673600. InteI'n8t: www.ph.mcr88k.com.

Plum Creek Timber continues to perfonn better than most in this industry. In the first quarter. eamIngs. excluding a one-time charge. came in at $0.23 a
share. Even though this result was 23%
below that of a year ago, it was well ahead
of our estimate and the company's guldance of 50.12 to 50.17 _ Moreover, conslderlng Lhat most lumber producers are elther
losing money Dr lust breaking even, we
view Lhts result
avorably. These results
were primarily driven by better-thanexpec:t.ed harvest volumes and prldng in
the South. where supply has been constrained due to wet weather. The repurchase of two million shares also helped.
The company will probably
begin an
earnings uptrend
later this year. The
t1mber and tlmberland markets are currently depressed due to weak paper
demand and excess log and lumber capadty both In Norm America and globally. In
fact. prices for sawlogs. pulpwood, and
lumber are near their five- and 10-year
lows. However, several developments could
help absorb :some of the excess capadty.
boosting prices and profits. Fir.ot. a more
meaningful
pickup in the U.S. economy is

expected In the second hall of 2003. And


the reduced level of the dollar will help exLastly, we expect a continuation of
ow mortgage and interest rates. and.
therefore, strong housing and repair markets. In all, we are call1ng for the company
to earn 51.1 5 this year and 51.35 In 2004.
Meanwhile,
Plum Creek Is In the
midst of developing
a couple of nontimber businesses.
The
first
Is Its
coalbed
methane
project.
In the first
quarter. the company began seIling this
commodity on the market.
Plum Creek Is
still analy2.lng the returns from this busIness to see tf it makes sense to keep It or if
It should be sold. Another opportunity
that
the company
Is Investigating
Is possibly
entering joint ventures to develop some of
Its land. Plum Creek owns several parcels.
Including desirable
lakefront properties
In
Wisconsin. MaIne, and Wyoming .
Though
untimely.
this
stock should
interest
income-oriented
investors, as
It offers an attractive 5.3% adequately cov~
ered yield. Because of its REIT structw"e .
the company must payout cash eanlings
to avoid corporate taxes.
Deborah Y. Fung
July ll. 2003

""1'_;"""....,

iT"" ~

,,... ""'"

2002
2003
2D04
01
llO
6.15
UO
3.25
.. 13
1.42
1.75
ue
116
1.15
1.35
1.57
2.15
1.49
1.44
'.MJ
1.35
.M
.M
32
I1D<
1212 12.02 1Z.1
113.13 184.68 3100 3100
171
21.7
1.18
10..5% 5.4"
'.2'
109.1
699.0 1137.0
11M
uoo
39.0\
79.5'
45.5'
3t'" Jf.'"
105.0
39.9
~.O
110
IU
ZlS
15.1 106.0 233.0
l!lIl
.. 1.1"
.9'10
45.7'10 34.4'10 10.6'10 1l7"
14.9 157.0 223.0
US
l!lIl
559.8 1641.0 1839.0
'SOD
'SOD
21.5
506.7 22'7.0 2222.0
Ull!
1.0%
10."
5.7"
16.8'
91'
10.5"
I.'" lUll

2000
3.05
1.81
1.23
2.28
.32
'.39
68.57
10.1
f.31

......
...

" TOT. RET\IlW 1113


na

3,...

f:rts.

,A' A... _.,.


... '96; "". d_.
J.... , 50,.,Dec. (C)I. mo., odj.'or 10. RE""" 7f1!.9.~F)Q1o. do .......
"'..
EPS rpt. eM IiII8 AIW.Excl ednI. & M pns ipIiL ~ PlUM nagin:I & lb. In not compo m chg. i'1 .us. (G)')1 IgLnS MlI1lIItBB:l kl ..
(Icss~ '98,
'99, SB; '00, fflj; 'tn, $1.01; !lit*' DthIIrentiliei oodetlll'ritw, sn:ePCl
lledtr'l!rg&' rill Tht Tmber ~ny,
10.01.
1Q "03, (5 . ) DtV'a.nds hisiorEaly ~id i1 I*)'S nininal tuM. (E) CorrwnBd tam. MLP
Cl 2lDl v.lJI! lile ~",
~
1t5!MlI. JICluII .......
is; ctIlIirlell __
....
10 be ~
_
is pvriIed wiIIaIl: ...-s d
kM.
THE.PUflUSlR IS NOTRf.
SlllU. ORNl't[RRORS.ORQI,IS$OHSltr~.1lIis~i5*dJb_miw's-.n
...
__ ...........
opotn
1..,- lie
ff'SII:l.
t.-t
b
'.
.
.
a" **-ic
. -.a,..a.n

~'1J;

..-- - .--.... -~..--

BUS"ESS: Plum Creek Ttmber grtM'S, twtests, and matets n


1:8 and logs, and rnanufadllll!S frnst produt1s. such u lunber
Md plywoOd. II is the second ~
tiftHlrland DWNII" II h U.S.,
wlh ~
bill.. 01 apprtlrillm.ta!y &0 nia:ln laBS, bt:atad Ii
20 ....
~ny
is 8 Real Est-. InVllSlmlln1 Trust and is subjId: 10 mi'linal carpwU! bIJ;a1iDn. Acqunld 865,000 MJ1!S tom

1:~

1.
1.26

."

"

73"

3<.0
61.0
69.0

m:o 1IDi

CUITIlI1tUab.

",

11I""ft,

1993
12.34
2.99
1.92
l.J7
7.01
'.74
40.61
10.0
.59
'1lI
501.
33.'"
3U
91.'
1.6'
18.3'
531
544.'
192.6
14.9'
47.5"
15.1"

3131J03
208.0

68.0

34.0
88.0

Otho'

eo.

2Q02

JIlIIl

CulT8nt AasIIlIs
Acds Pa)'ilble
Debt Due

$63.0 ml. Db_II. $81.0

m"

......

~'""-'"

LT w.Iet $110.0'"

CURRENT POSmoN

rarglt Price Range


2006 2007 2008

20.9

12

'.S

sheres

TaDl Dtbl $1501.0 mi. DUllin 5 Yrw.$384.0 m....

..
'

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as of 3131m

Assllts-l2IDZ

23.3

5.3%

2'.3

32.0
18.9

16

,."1'

On July 1, 1999, Pel coover1ed from a


Masts, limnod Partnership(MLP)to a Real
EsIate Investment Trust (REin. Each
unithokler received one shr. in the RaT for
each unit held and tho General Partner's interes! was convertod into 17 millioo"'".
The con",,,,,,n ,",unod in a financial
reportingchange that indudes many of the
oompany's operations (i.e" manufaclunng
and haM>Sling) as an unconsolidated suI>sidial)', BegilVling1/1/01, Pel's operating
subsidiaries are consolidated with the REIT.

P.nslon

,". ",'

'"

IIJlII

7J~ 78~illi1docl
2.5_

LT DRbtS1.f68.0mil.

29.8
21.5

;,-'

"'"' """m

-'

1711

23.4

32.1
23.1

__'**'

..
35 l~l 21"
'ZX

..,

22.'

34.'

17.OI~r""'p!b

"'3$%
~!.
Insider Dectslons
~I.IIIII
AaOllDJF."
o 0 0 000 1 0 0
a 0 0 0 a 0 a a 0 .j;

26.8
14.7

36.0
25.8

RIiStM: Price ShtgII


3... , ~
lZIIJ
~Yts
rKl'SSiort

.1D (lJlO- MIU)

G-.

1.9

27.8

26.6
19.9

LEGENDS

...,....,

2lJOi.4I PROJE~~S
PriCI!

I ~~:~
I

32.S
19.e

*""* ~ .......

:1'

C....

:r,:F ....doI_...

5*'ck's nc. StallllitJ


Price Gmwth PersIItIMcI
Earnl ... P.-.dic:tabi11y
I

I'.

B+
100
2S

55
:11.

11-

PROLOGIS TRUST NYSEPLD

17.8
14.5

High;

27 .,SOLIpIRAm 204(1101'
1;22.4) RElATII<
lItdi.dllf
P RAm. 117

IRECEHT
IPRICE
Low:

22.5

16.5

26.'

25.5
18.9

19.8

22.2
16.8

24.7
17.8

23.3
19.3

26.0
21.0

DIV'D
YlJ)

5.5%

28.6
23.6

,II.

...... ...
-.

.. Tot RETlIIIIID3
1)'1'.

3 yr.
5 yr.

..112

5.5

52.3
41.8

1l.9
26..5

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1~& 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ~ VALli:/.liE PIlI IIC. ,_
..
.
.... 11.01 12.30 12.Q 13.14 12.83 13.86 13.53 12.94 13.95 13.15 f{1:i BookYntper.
15.70
.
.

.
.

.94
1.13
1.30 1.51 1.110 202
221
2.35
239
24>
1.10 fmtd. hn 0pI per sh E.
UO

...
..
.
.56
.55
.63
d.04
.47
.56
.95
1.16
1.32
1.35
1.58 fIm/ngI..- III A
UJ
.
.

.85
J3
1.01 1.08 117
1.31 1.35
1.39
U2
U'
Dlw'd, DtcI'd J* III"
2.15

.
.

.
.
17.89 21.16 25.61 24.15 21.58 28.48 25.49 22.82 26.30 ZUO
11.2.5R_ EIt..-III
'UO

.
.
.

..
64.59 81.42 93.68 117.36 12HZ 161.83 165.29 115.88 178.15 lnoa
fltOG CcnnIon 8M Clutlt, c 1JUO
_.
..
..
..
..
..
.. 43." 31.0~ "...
tiB.O% 8J." ""'
".O~ 65."' 10.0~

..
.
..
..

28.1 28.'
285
.IIF
.W
.. .3
2U
,8.8
18.0 _ .. __
A'IIAnolPIERdo
110
.
.
.
.

..
16.16 18.28 13.83 ".62
13.01 9.19 9.54
9.01
9.92
-_ ...
_
A'IIAn.,PIFFORdo
U
..
..
.,
.
.,
..
.,
5.4\
5.8"
5.6% 5.6'
5.2'
6.6'
6.3% 6.5'
6.0%
AYg
DlY'c1 YWd
15%

1.5'

AM'

CAPR"ALSTRUCTUREuol3l3tlD3

70.6

TGtlIDlibt$282B.3mil.

..

'.

Duttn5Yrs$706.7mil.

Teullnt_rest$180.0mill.
(Total

merest

. R7\
-.

ctM!I'age: 2.9x)

No Definltd &.neftl: ~nslon Plan


Pfd Siock S4OO.0mil. PM. Dlv'd $32.8 mil.

Common Stock 178,726,859


shs .

..

(7% .. ",,'Q

IlARKET CAP: $4.1 billion (MId C.p)

FUNDS FLOW (Smil.'

zooa

2001

Net profit Plus


Noncash chargn
InvesimenIs Repaid
He New Debt

321.1
n8.7

343.3 377.3
751.6 1728.8
__
__

Ne~ Equity
Investments Funded
Divllenr:ls DecIlInId

2002:

10.9 144.8
780.2 1142.1

221.0

284.5

.3

5.3

15.6

345.1

20..

4S1.2
691

76.e\ n.1111 54.0lIl 76.11 84.21

25.1
47.1
19."
35.5\ 31.0\ 34.9%
.35
1.1
,.3
11:;:;.5 1771.3 23519.6
.. 615.9 811.9
m.7 11362 1599.4

31.D

106.5

480.0

46U

449.5

5" R..... ~
1561
1no ~.7
210 0Il.1n
83.7\ eu,
7U\ 7tMe. 7iMe.()pIfdnQ I...
213.1 241.8 278.D
111
3" NIl
D
404.4% 51.611161.81 5U"
5t5% NIt Prollllqkl'
1.3
10.0
6.'
NI
NI C_GIIoI('"
otZ12..5 .wt3.3 4683.2 411
S1/JS Rul EII(W'
2237.0 2202.5 2186.1
H50
.mD lDngllR1D1b1{$nl111

143.3
291%
1.'
..
38'
2834.1 34032 4608.3
724.1 1268.6 24251
1976.7 2256.4 2953.1 2927.4 2616.0 2886.5
n.1" 71.51 70.5% 64.91 fi1.1'1 59.11 ~ ..."
6.1% 8.1% 6.0\
6.8\
6.~
6.9% 6.1\

10.9ft 30.8'

lID
2ID

7ID
130
10.0%

'U".n~
NO
SJH
2IOlI
.u5O

.f-~-l-iPdfi~4-!~g.~U~~~~~~~~-J--?i~cJ.~~~~~~!!.1:~",---I--#.
51.5" H,,,,, DiY'c1.DId'c1Iof'FO
.
..
_

90.~
3.7\
32'4

3.11I

BUSINESS:

_.
30.2
620.3

153.9

82.31
5.9\
4.3'4

.A

PmlDgis

Trust

4,4%

2..0%

1.01.

42"

".K

Hi'

".71.

.8,

5.1"
7.3"

is a real esiate inwPnerrt hSt whictl

owns end manages II8tW'Dl't or IIklbal disb111rtJ)llC8f1t8B.


ProLogIS has en OWIIIdhip i'IbnsI: ofepprtlll. Z21 rniiJn IqUln
feet. in 1760 distribution faciili!s operftKI n under developrrent
in about 70 martels located Uw1lughout Nttth AmliIi:::a. Eurtlpe.rId

6.5%

1.0"

9.""

9.51

820

.JlIlIlI SIlT.

UK
l5%
'.5%

10% w-sn1oAuttl
1.01 ReIwn an TotII
Shr. ElPtf

tux Ann ..

elp'

at,",
15%
UK
t1.S

industrial QlsIr.n&'w. wor'dwI:la. PmLogis tm .p~.


700 ~
..
in the United States ancl WDpe IU aI Dee. 2OOZ. orran and
dnckn
own aboUt Z.Sti of shanII 0IllStandng (5IQ3 proxy).
Channao .nd CEO: K. Dane 8nd:IhlIr. PnIS.: Irring F. Lyons 3n:I.
Telephone: 303-375-9292.Adcha. 14100 E_ 35th PIateAmn,
Colorado !0011. IntBmef edG-IISI: ...... ~iI.am.

219.3 237.7 252..3 Asia. Frologis a/ID DIlen; ..-ehl:ruUJg and dlsHHlfiDfldltioos to
ANANCW.
POSmON12131101 1113111:12ProLogis
will likely
post only moder- problems. which should be taken Into con
Senior Debt
11870.4mil. 1630.1 mill ate gains in the year ahead. The envi- sideraUon.
Subordinated
Debt
532.1
558.0 ronment for industrial
real estate remains
The
balance
sheet retna1ns strong.
SrDebUCap'IFunds
.31:1
31.1
mixed., particularly
In the United
States,
ProLogis
is repurchasing
some
of its
Total DebI/EquIY
.98:1
.95:1
which accounts for most of ProLogis' port- higher-yielding
preferred
stock., which
PORTfOUOCONDIOON
v..- ~
Las1
folio. As a result, total occupancy (current- should
boost eanililgs a bit. Also, longNon&n1AaQ-%IInY8St5.
-.
-Iy at about 86.5%)
will probably remain
term debt remains
about 46% of total capttalREN1l1.RE'/!ll\ES111IIJ
below year-ago levels, and rental rates will tal, which Is relatively conservative, given
endar .r.31 Jun.30 -s;:'3Q DecJ1 y.., llkely stay competitive for lhe rest of 2003. the amount of real estate (about 54.1 bU2100
120.8 119.7 121.5 118.0 .480.0
Also, higher operating expenses, Whlwlllch
lion) the company owns .
1 119.8 117.8 116.5 11'.3 868.' hurt results
In the March quarter,
ProLog1s will likely make some a<qui.
ZOD2 112.9 111.1 108.6 116.9 449.5
likely keep pronts from advancing much sltians
in the year
ahead. The company
.,
115.7 115 125 12U fill
going fOlWani.
sold Its temperature-rontrolled
properties
_
fa 130 130 145 530 The company's intenllltional
property
In 2002. and plans to use the proceeds to
Co.
_SPERSIIAIIA
funds are holding up well. These assets add about $150 mIIUon-$200 million In
__
1Iar.31 Jill. 3G ~',-31 o.c. '1 Y.... conb1buted dramatically to funds from op- properties
to its wholly owned. portfolio.
_
.2'
.15
.29
.Z1
.95 eratlons (FFO) In the March
period, due In The acquisition budget for the p~rty
21101 .25 .26 .26 .39 1.16 large part to hlgher construction and man- funds will likely be about $350
on,
ZOD2 .30 .28
.30 .014 1.32 agement fee income. The real estate envl- distributed throughmJt EW"Ope and Asia.
IODl .21 .34
.31
.42 1.35 rorunent, particularly for storage and <lis These neutrally
ranked shares may be
21M
.u
.u .JI ." 1.511 tlibut:lon centers, remains a bit more or interest to investors looking for an
CeI- QUARlERl.YDMlBI)$PAD"
Fun robust in Europe and Asia. As such, we ex- industrial
RElT.
ProLogis
recently
.ndar lIar.31 Jun.30 SeD.3IDec.31 'r_ pcct conb1butlons
from these funds to In- raised tts dividend slightly, which should
1991 .3180 .3272 .32n:J272
1.30 crease at about 20% annually for the next help boost the stock's total return.
Howzoaa .3350 .3350 .3350.3350 1.34 few years. Although the funds offer lnves- ever, our current projections indicate these
ZOOt
.3C50 .3450 .3C50.3450 1.38 tors a diverstfled lntema.Uonal real estate shares
offer llmited capital-appreciation
ZI02 .3550 .3550 .3550.3550 1.42 portfolio, there are some potential risks. potendal for the next 3 to 5 yeers.
2013 .3550 .3660
such as CU1T'ency yolatlltty and poliUcal Adam Rosner
July 25, 2003

,.n

F.'

ID)

(AI SaBd on fuI)' d**'cl e.nings pW shire. due .. Cd. (8) Dividends hiItr.R:dy poi il
ExckKIescap' IImL
W..
cap' 1leint:'tJ2. $.04; '01, s.o6; '99. IaIB Feb., May. Aug . and Nov . D'ld. ntiI- E) 0ilmId FFO.
S.25. Exdudes I'IOrI-fIICO'Iing gaits (bsseS): veshent plan il'taiLlb68.
(fJ EJcUIes cth. illlXlnl8.
'02. ($.16); '01, (t7D~ NBxt .lrTIings r&PCI1 (Cllnmliw.
o ~tm.\/M'liJe ~
lIE M ~1fl5I"III.
F~
~i5
*liIaI I,llIIII ~~
rDIIr~
~,.....
\IIlalI-.r*s .. .., UMI. _
THE PU8LJ5IIl1S fill R.E5KlN5eU1ORNlY ERRORSOR:QM,SSIONSHER[ TlJs pYIIIQIian is *EtJ'b"
s-.
~
....
use.Nopmt
al ~ -.y .......
Rd. -...I ~
illllJ' pi*d..--ri: 11"
lI" llIIll ill" ~
1I"..utiIg ~ ~
~
fIUIIbIiIlI. 5IAD II" pIIllaa.

CompellY's FNncaI"'gItI

B+
100

~
Prb Staidly
Prim Grow8I hnidlMlcll
EamI"",P~
I

I '.

40
45
: II:

II-

I low:
"'~ I

J ""' ...,

lIIEUIISS
WID
TECHNICAL

Z ..... TI"'"
3 ......... ,

28.0
22.5

26.0
22.

~""_5

('''i'.%~

"

:::.

'''-''

lr.m.I

CAPITAL SlRUCTURE uof3l31m


TobIl Delli $9804 mil Dill: In 5 YI'S $6098 miL
TobIllnt.,.m $605 nil (74% of CapV
Ben .... Pension

PM Stock $814.3

Common

Slott

mi.

PM.

249,113,286

Pmn

Net PraM

shs.

2000

m.'

1&UI
1474.5

913.9
436.4
240B.7

12

e.l

341.4

002.6

595.9
589.8

--

PORTFOUO CONDrTlON
Year Ago
Mtg.s Repaid in Quarter
N'
Loss ReMI"M--%IImwts.
N'
NA
Non-&m Aa8ls-%IIlM!SI1

-zao,

1433.2

flJ72
12131102

$9546.1

--

2.8:'
2.8:1
L.....

...

N'

,_

NA

l.QAHSIREAI.~~.J
Jun.30
Doc.31

Ilar.3t

lm9 13200 13063


12819 12911 12848
'3662 '3861 13758
13753 f_
fQlO f_
f_
f_
fmo f_
EARIIIIlGS PER SIIAII.
1.31 Jun.30 Sd' Doc.31
.21
.44
.24
24
.19 .21
.21
.25
.18
.91
.32
.52
.29
.1lI
.1lI
.33
.Jf
.37
.3ll
.3Z
OUIRlElI.Y_PAIl"
Mar.3t Jun,30 S.0.3O o.c:.31

13036
lG02 '2749

21113

....,
CaJ.

2ID1

lG02

21113

......
CaJ.

'119

UO
22'
1.06

18.11
78.45

22.17
15~1

23J1
85.04

-- ao a,

--

--..

-"

'.

'"

~,..~

.505
.505 .505 .505
.505
.505
.505 .505
.525
21111 .505
.525
.525
.525 .55
lG02
.55
.55
la03
.60
.60
(.1_ pai:I
.......
' ....'.,. (010_ ...... ,",tDnc2IIJ
abou! 30th rI Feb., May, Aug.,

y1.13

.16
1.93
1.20
f.JO
Full

y2.02
2.02
2.08
2.18

;;~
1.04'4

314.6
40.1
51.31ft
62.5

428.7

62.8'
87.5

14.71

18.51

1420.4
1457.9

1904~

".
--

1651.1
101.1

23.0
10.9
8"
522.7
31.0
64.8'4
99.6
18.0'

10.41
7.10
11.65
16.39
15.15
3.06
328
2.301 2.51
2.15
1.13
1.02
1.06
1.02
1.00
2.12
2D1
2.02
2.02
2.02
55.14
301.79 .41.41 54.31
57.41
157.85 1lUS 230116 233.32 236.91

13.92
3.51
.116
2.01
54.04
237.74

31~
7~
1.6%

2<.4
10.8

..,

28.,
'2.0
6>%

702.9
".8
632%
134.6
19.'%

1002.6
S1.6
64.4'

--

--

2229.2 5491.8
162U 3S322

7112.0

--

319.7

1~.2

5~'933'

,1.1%

16.7%

6.0'/,
'0.3%
NMF

10.9%
NMF

-~~o'
2:~1'

203.1
19.3..

4681.0
2251.3
84.4'11

..

30]

6.51

1329.9
75.7

04]%
243.'
11.3'

--

25.0
82
7.8'
1790.9
104.'
653'
317,4
16.8'

--

2559.8 3258.3
7212.3 9124.1
440:U 4365.7
76.6"4

2.1%
42'

7~'

sn

4.0%

'9%

1.411

13.011.

16.6'11
1.311
4.7%
7.3'

~"

21.S
7.4
8.3'
1887.D
133.7
65.0%
347.4
11.2\

..

:02

"
"
30

10

10

1US
3.79
1>3
2.18

14.15

5513

57.55

249.29

251"

17"
8.8
6.5'
19262 _.8
122.8 141.0
04.9% 63.7%
541.3
2I2.:l
13.8' 25.0'

--

8.0'
5.0%

U,

4185.8
69.4'11

--

4491.5

"-.
55
12.9

'~1

fU'

uo

-".cYAl.IELJIPIIl ".-~
51.0

Book YaIuI
fvndl hM

Ops,..

pII'

It!

1-'.'
~
I-

06-17
1%.15
F
~7'
1.50

U4 Elmingl pIl" sh A
~441 DiY'dl DId'd PI' III ..
looM l Ro~'" por III "'DO
mDO C...", SirlOuflf'g C mil!

u.

.1.1.

---

-,.: ....

--

....

RET1JRIII M13

""
," ""'"
,,,.
.34

~DO
1.2D
~441

3062.7 12848.1 13168.1


90\53.7 8841.4 9546.1
4121.8
68.4%

"TOT.

U5IJ

,n

f..

.......

Ava AIIn' PIE RIIo


Aya Ann'! P6FO ROo
AYi Ann' Qiy'd Y.d
R__
I~

otw .. """.,id>'

....

f40

~'"
2IDO
100

llpnIng .....
15.'"
35IJ NIl
IlnoIiJ"
421l
NIl
_

1~0%
14.1"
N'
N' C_Glln.
N'
f4511
loIn.l Roll E"llnIIIJ 1_
f_
longT .... ~':"'I
42111
431' 4311 6Iu.-...... '\mO
Dn'ds
Dld'd to FFO
.1.0%
13.0"
10.'"
lOll
7.0%
lOll IEu.nAS10 AuI1I
4.5% R.tun UI TGbIIClIP'
10.~
7.5% Ribn 011SII', Equity

"''''
,~'""''''
3f5

,-

Prott

,-

"...

66.1%
8.4%
8.8%
6",
6.7% 122'
fL or gross les!able ..

.."

.~, ~'"
"

..

BUSINESS: Sittln ~
GlOlJp, Inc. is 1.11Lm~
pMnen;~
real es1iIte mestmen1 tust (UPR8T). Via !lUbsililry par1n.ship&,
is engllg8:i in the ownllnhip,
droeVpmBnl. ~,
18aY1g,
M:quislion and exp;lFlSbn of ~
I1IlaiI propBItiea, I\dudilg ,.gional mall. amTIunIy
shDPPf'g en. & IIPBCiIIly pIqI.
Owns or hok:Is an i"Mnst il Z38 ptOpStiis CXlI'It.ilmg 182 ..
Iq.

iI 36 sta1es and 9 BSS8ls i'l Canada &


Ewope. Had 2.173 s/l..w.kflIn, (7I14.WJ; 4,170 ~ptJ)oees. Inc.:
MD. Dncbs
& cKan
awn 24.9% ti ftM
(PnJry, 4103). Cod\l.1m8n: Y. & H. Sinon. CEO: D. Sinon. Pres.: R. Sr:*OOY. Adlhss: 115 W. Washington st., IndlilnlpoIiI, IN 46204. Tel.: 317
836-1600. Inl8rrtet www.liYuI.com.

Simon's and Westfield America's SZOa-share


tender offer
for Taubman
Centers is now set to expire on August
1st, but amid be extended agaln. As of
June Z6th. .1Ightly more than
35% of
Taubman's
approximately
52 mlllion
shares of Class A common stock had been
tendered and not withdrawn tllI short of
the two lh1rds needed for the hostlle
takeover. In May. a Michigan court ruled
that Taubman insiders, woo, via the Series B preferTed stock. have a 33.6% vot~
interest, may not use their vote to bl
the deal (unles. a majority of non-Insider
stockholders opt to allow them to do so).
Taubman is appealing the dedston. Val'ious scenarios could unfold. but our sense
Is that little will happen untIl the appeal
Is resolved. possibly Ihls fall. Depending
on the outcome, Simon could call a shareholders meeting to dismantle Taubman's
takeover defenses. Should it abandon the
attempt to acquire Taubman, the deferred
costs of the takeover battle ($1.2 million
thus far) would be expensed
Although
we think a 5l1'l6 Interest in
Taubman Centers would be an attractive addition to Simon's property

portf"ollo,
the
cor,r:y
bas other
pr'!lect5 that shoul
support
healthy
growth in Funds FI'OID Operations
over the next several years.. In March.
it purchased its partner's interest in The
Fonun Shops at Caesars (with annual
tenant sales over $1,100 per square foot),
and started Its third expansion of that <:enter. whJch will affront l.as Vegas Bouleyard (a main
thoroughfare
with high
pedestrian traffic). It announced ~lans to
acquire
a Sho~lng mall from
lanfonl
University an two jointly owned outlet
centers an under constnJctlon.
near-tenn
retail
Meanwhile.
mall
oc
prospects
are mixed. Although
cupancy and rents rose In the March
quarter. tenant bankruptcy
filings may Increase in the months ahead, which could
temporarily raise vacandes. But Simon is
redu~
<nsts. Eamings per share In ZOOZ
Include
larger-than-nonnal
gains from
noncore property sales. We haven't factared similar gains into our 2003 estimate.
The stock's dividend. yield is attracdve. But total retum potential to ZOO6Z008 Is limited, based on our proJections.
Theresa Brophy
July 25. 2003

I'8IMISl pi. EDa .. 151511h. di'd


In mi. (D) PlD-ftmll ill "93.

ill..,

15

2003 2004

'od.Il1 ........
m.;,op ...... 'P.
... ___
of """'""'''''
"_~~
FFC/IshBrB: "02. Q', $0.7'9; Q2, SO.B9; Q3, firm 2003. fIIiII'IlI9BII'nt
CD. I8SUIs RpcftId
0.94; 04, $1.17. ~, 01, $0.89. (G) Income
Dr! cmsoida1ed
basil. (H) 3- b s-y.- pr"aI
briIIcn unusual Ifnrs. ~
in:ome. Ringe bas.s on FFOlsh x 10.0.
CI UD3. v.ue lile ~
~
11SIIftG.
F~
lIIlIIlM is IItUNd trlIIII 'UteS II-*'Ied III be ..........
tI praviIIll 'IIIlIlaul. .-...In III
lHEPUlkISHEJltsNJTRE
ORNlYERRORSORClMlSSKINSHRE ... ,.... ........
~
.......
~_.~lIIl
........
__ 11...
pill
IIIl ~.
~
II:liIlIIl. ttnll 01 .....
pri*4
01 ......
II' IMId IIf gINI-.g 01 -rtIIIIIg 1fIJ',.i*d.
tIiIIaIoI'k. pd;*n 'SIrfice II' p1Cld1d.
""' . Div'd
I!J22I96,. (C)

60
SO

,"

-\:A;.

, ,

--

..
..
..

2PO>

7472
19.6
2454.9

FINANCIAL POSITION 12131"1


Senior Debl. (mil.)
$8841.4
Subordinated
Debt (mi.)
Sf Debt!C8p1 Funds
2.8:1
TotBI DeW'Equly
3.0=1

e...
....,

1.18
2.09
1.04

..

2001

542A

"

aD

_.~... - - --

'

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1~~

An
1.92
.80

29.'

Plus

Noncash d1Brges
IrMtStmenb
Repaid
Net New Debt
He. Equity
Il'1'I8Itments Funded
Di\rilends DeclBrecI

~
993"

..

ml

$66.0
16% of Cap'ij
Dtv'd

IIARKET CAP: $10.1 bill (Large Cap)


FUNDS FLOW' (Smll.)

.-.-

@;t:..

Simon Property Group, Ine. (SPG) was


fOl1TIed
on Sop!. 14, 1993. On Dec. 20,
1993, lXlmpletedan IPO ci 37.75 m~ion
.hares ci lXlmmonat $22.25 a 5I1arofor
$767.6 milian net and borrowed $259 million. The proceeds were used to acquire a
52.2% intet8Sf in 5i01Jn Property GlllUp,
LP., a shoppin9mall owner.developer,and
manager.SPG sold an add~ional5.662 milIioo shares for $118.4rrillioo nol "" Jan. 14,
1994 pursuant m an owr-allo1ment option.
AcquiredDeBartoloReally on BmI96.

No o.tiIlId

T~t Pric. Ranp


2006 2007 2008

31.7

2B.8

I
ktilii
,

Percent
183 shareS

,~,ulli'

1451:

412

36.'

31.0
23.8

iJ:~~

1Q2.J

174

27.1
21.5

, .. 11"1'

"~,I

GID

30.9
20.4

,.

i1f1i::* FK't!'nOI
II,.

Institutio ... ' Declalons


172

34.'
25.8

"'.~..,.

Ann'I TDtII
PriR
GaIn
RI'IIrm
....
55
12%
~"
I..aIIr
40
Hi
15"
Insider Decll.lDns
lOllO.l".A_""
..,
DOOOOOOOor-9
o,lIIlI 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 2 ~.:
.,..
0 0 1 0 0 0 5 0 2
IQ2I12

34.4
27.9

-~~ow=r~
.... -.'\1.:: .......

2Olli41 PROJECTIO~.~.

.. ..,

31.0
21.1

LEGENDS

.70 (1.Dll .. IUrt.tt)

IP,

22~
22.3

l'

SIMON PROPERTY GP. NYSE-sPG I~40.50 I~m33.8(~':~:J::)~J%1.941~ 5.9%

---=

:1a....

StoCk's
rice 5tabJIly
Priel Growth Pw:rsBtanQ
Eanll. PI'IIlIidI.b11ty

'"

100
20
eo
:11:

II',

Iroo

TOOTSIE ROLL NYSElR


_

3....,3/1..,

Low

2"'-1 ~

cec;_

RI1IIm

Gatft

041.3
24.4

-fl.?
28.1

......
25A

47.5
33 .

48.6

28.3

30.7
26.4

r_rget

80
60
SO

..

'h

iIlIqll!S fa"e.uim

,.11.1"

.'

-..,

:~'f"

.. e.,

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

ClplIIII

000000000

".

I~

i'1i1-

.:.:...., .. ... ,-....., ......,."."'"


......

'lo

11111

"111'

"1111""

..

1"""

"
30

- --

....,,

I.,'

15

.... ."-.
..""
""'"
"'.3
-05

.. TOT. RE11ItII JIlIJ

,.s

1,..
3,..

.,..

'5

12170

-35.5

-10.0
-1.8

~.O

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 VAlIELBEPIJIl
3.43
3.61
.33
6.02
6.n
1.01
7ZI
7.9&
7.49
7.10
7~ SIJeIpwldll A
~03
3.16
5.52
7J2
U1
'56 52.
,.32
.58
. 1
.18
1.05
1.45
1.49
1.66
!.S.
1.50
t.II
.36
.45
JIl
.90
.90
-10

...,

,....
17.7
1.18

29
.04
.08

.36
.04

1.62

1.93
.67

.05

".,
1.09

16.6

1.38
.1~

.40
.04
.08
2.2!l
56 ....
1.2
1.Z1
.6~

.1~

.47
.04
Jl

51
.05

VO

321
.64
23,
1.43
.4'

22

56.
19'
W
.5~

... of t2J31m
Duein5Y~N~
LT mteIat $.2 mil.
mil

CAPn-AL SlRUCTURE
TutaIDHt$7.5mil.
LTIJRbt.$1.5mil.
Caplallzad IBases .17.5

(1~ 01Co,'Q
Ltues, UncapiUliiud None
No DdinMi Bend Pension Plan

Pfd $1Dd. None


Common Stock 50,697,745 5hS.
Indudes 16,765,752 Class B shs. (10 ycles each)
lIS

at 3141D~

IIARKETCAP:
CURRatl'

,i,\"1LI
Co
.......

.... ...,

POsmON

Receivables
IlT'i'enDy (UFO)
Other
Cunent AIsets
Ac:cts Pllyeble
D8bl:Due

---

'""",,
Eamngs
DividMds

BookV8lue

.....,
tal-

175.2

24.8
41.9

41.2

12131JQ2
146.2

22.7
43.6

20.'

,2.
,2...-

9.3

224]

246.1

....-9.2

--

.72
575

ANNUAl RATES

Salas

132.5

2ijJ.2
10.3

Other
Cumnd Liab.

,,_lPor",/

(Illid Cap)

$1.5 billon

50.8

.....

.....
,
aao
tal-

Pat

llYn.

'm.
. 0%

7.5%
10.5%

JI.'"
JI.'"

..'"

7.5%

10.5"

8.0,,"

19.0%
13.0%

17.5%
11.0%

3 . .5"

1.'"

.29
.23

llID3

.21

.24

tal-

'U
'111
A III

Jlln.Pe;-S;:Per

.2'
.23
.24

......

86.9 168.8
79.0
77.1 146.3
15.6
11./1 lS1l
700
71./1 155
E.Alu.IGS fER SHARf

95.2
90.8

82.6

lI01
2llO2

.26

DeeP,
.59
.2B
.51
.23

.50

.~

.05
.06

.07
.07

.m

.06
.06

.m
.07
.m

.06

.m
.m
.m

m.l
'235
393.2

"S

405

y-

.28

.z7
.z7

1.3/1

11r.31 Jun.3D Sep.30 DK.3t

1109

Fill

y-

1.40
1.23
1.25

.28
.55
GROSS QIJARIBlLl IMlS PAl)
.23

2D01
2llO2
2l1li3

-'II

3.75

.63

.08

.14
'25
56...,
18.'
121
.6~

~;
2~
259.6

2JJ6.9

24.0'11

24.61

6.8
35.'
38.6'1.
13.71i
61.0

27.5
212.3
14.11"
16.7"
15.o"

1011

132
31J1

.11
.08
.08
4,81
56.61

J3
.11
.11
5~

1.08
.13
.15
616
55.

." .~

19.1
116

11.7
1.11

19.1

t.tit

.7~

312.7
24.0""

IOJ
40.'

38.01

37.0'

12.8'

12.9~

340.9

25.3'"

1~1
471

7.15

55.
26.6
1.38
5~

375.6

388.7

27.4'11

29.4'"
1~6
672
362~

,a

60.7
36.4'11

109.7

37.1'"
13.8"
153.3

27.5
2405

7.5
2m

1.5
312.9

15
3511

1(3"
15.8"
13.9"

14.6"

14.&"

17.0'1t

14n

15."

17.3"
152"

12.9~ 13.1"
1311
1211 1311

1.22
.11
11

162~
153.4

1211

1.30
.20
27
7.89
54.6Q
26.1
t.49
.6~
396.8
28.9%

1.40
2'
-10

123
.26
16

11.57

9.51

53.
23.3
121
.1~

53. 1
~5
1.57

.427.1

423.5
26."

29.0'{,

10.0
71.3
36.0%

17.4"
175.1

18.0~
'68A

1~.7

1.5

15
430.6

7.S
458.7

16."
16.6%
13.~

16.3"
16.5"
13.7"

396.5
16.8"
17.0"
14.7"

'"

'6~

13.3
75.7

1.25
fbi'

y-

.06

.23

.01
.07

.26
.28
.26

.m

."

16.7

3932

21.1~
1~'

66.'

35.n.

34.1'11

17.7'

15.51

16.9'

'"

BUS"ESS: Toolsill RoIlndustri8s, lnc. produces candy. Pmduds


1JdlIde: TOOI* ftJI, Toot_ Pop, TDot_ ~
Pop, Tad_
Pop Drops, and WaDI Deft. AcquDd Ihch", Confedion!l' Andes
C8ndi8s, 5t{I0; WlIII8l'-laInb8l1's
fDnner d1ocolllelcaf1lTllll
tnndl
(Junior Alns, SUgw Da:Idy, Sugar Babiel, Chl!r1"st.on Chn, and
Pam
llW3; ChmnI Co. (thsrms, Blow Pops', 9I8B; Celli',

PoIN"

remains a cha1lenge; higher input costs


are also hampering earnings. Sales ln the
latest quarter were hurt by the timing of
Easter and the associated seasonal prod
uet. shipments. a reduction in the number
of shipping days, and a January price Increase that prompted customers to place
largerthannormal
orders in the fourth
quarter of last year. Many .f these Issues
should wane during the June period.. Still,
the lackluster sales volwnes stem~
from customer banknJ.ptdes
may s
weigh on year-over-year comparisons.
Commodity prices continue to be a
problem. The dvU war in the Ivory Coast.,
the world's largest producer of cocoa, has
driven prices to I7-year highs. Also, the
price for corn. and, hence. com syrup has
edged up due to weather-related crop reduet.ions. Further. suppliers of corrugated
packalfufng have inched up pric.es to cover
their
gher costs, which were relatively
stable for most of last year. Finally, oll.
needed for Tootsie's plastic resins to ~rtnt
its packaging, has been at lofty leve s. At
this JlUlcture. Toostle's raw material costs

1882
72
5065
12.8'

1~9'4
10.11.

161.9

1.5
526.7
12.4"

12.6"
9.B"

rfg

iI..,

r1.S
~

I-

I&-U

"Ca/I_,... ..

'40
"'/1
1.70

1.25

,.

.JZ

.10
1~1O

...'"
2'.0

t.'"

.'"
.."" ........
~rs.\::'.1 ...'"
35"" 35""
...""
'l'" 11-'" "" .....
#15

JJ>

.....
I~'

D.""

110
15./1

I"

7.2
555
11.5%

11/1

11/1
70/1 Not ......
ImaM Tu RIdI

_-

W_g CojI'I (IDml


lDng_ -1lnIlI1
Sh,.
RftInl on TalII CIftI
R_ '" $h'. E",",
RI1Iined 10 Com Eq
..". MDlw'cf11o Nt1 frof

21/1
15
5J/I
ft.5%

'1""
'''''
'''''
..".

11.'"

10/1
15./1

fU"
:100
1.2
110

11""
I~""
t.'"
1'"

ConIed.ions,
7185 Frw plants in U.S.; one i'1 Muim. Inn DpI.
(Mexi:o and c.lVIdir): 7'Jl, at'D2 ulls. Has about 1,950 snptJy...
M.J. M1Ill E.R. Gordan CDI*tlI 12"" at YOlmg power; LR.
Wei1ef, 12Y. (3103 Proxy). ChMTnan & CEO: M.J. Gordon. Pres.. &
COO: E.R Gordon. Inc.: VA. Adli".: 7401 S. Cicelo AYe., Chicago,
IL 60629. TeL: T7J.a38-3400.
1nllrnBl:: www.toabie..mrn.

w:l11likely remain hlgh. Nevertheless, we


expect investments to reengineer its productJon llnes, combined with ongo~
costcutting initiatives, to paMially offset the
higher

input costs.

International
operations
remain
mixed.. Mexican sales continue to be
depressed, but margins and operating Income appear to be stab111z1ng. Still, because not much of the product made there
is sold in the U.S., the revenues earned in
the weak peso hurt flnandal results when
repatriated. Meanwhile. volume gains in
the Canadian ~tlons
are more than
offsetting the so Canadian dollar, reDectlng the expanded dlstrlbution of existing
products and from product Introductions
north of the bon::ler.
These shares are neither tiJnely nor
undenralued. The top and bottom lines
probably will not Improve this year. And
the company's growth prospects for the 3to 5-year pull are markedly lower than the
past 5- and 1O-year ave~es.
StUl. an annual 3% stock cIlvtded
heIr Increase
the percentage
ownership 0
current
shareholders. providing some consolation .
Jeffrey B. Levit
May 9. 2003

A) FI!CaI )'ttIII" as
Dee. 31. Fi'!II: ttne dllllllB JulJ. (CI Ned dMdlnd IMI!Ibng lint 1966. (D) Inctudel i'ltanglbl!ls.ln '02: 5117.5
fttId on S.n.diry ms.st b end of ACq.NI!IIr:I ex d8ts M'ly June. 0ivd8nds pad Idion, $2.2~.
(f) tn m:-.m,.,j;tstad
monIh. (B) Bntd on IM!Iag8 shins IlRugh
&bout thl!I 9th of Jan., Apr., JIItt, and Cd. 3'" Ior.mct IpIts.!X1 sb:t divk:lends.
1996, di~ tIJweafter. NexlIiIhIiIgs repcrt stick dlV'd paid ud1 ,.-Ibout Atw. 21,IiIce
o lOU. VMIe lilt ~
AI
meMId. fa.! rMItIiII i5 .....
rn.. IUtft II*IIlIIIO lie rIIiIt* IIIl iI; ~
......
~
d ~ UnI.
THEPUlIUstERlSlilCIrR
SIIU ORIIf'IERR(MISORCMSSIOIGKERE.
. nB~.A"dJ"~S_.RIaI
........ ____
P"l
~ I ., lie ~
1eSllId...., ........
piIItlI. ~
_1Ihr Iln. .. aRIlI ill ~
.. -.IztiRg 1nJ .......
*ttaiI: .........
1IIIi2 II ,..aGcII1
qlMrtll'S

lie.

U/I Elniftgl pII' It! A


C
.Jf
.32 Dtv'dlDld'dpwM
.15
.10 tlp'I ........ g,... ..
10.04
11.45 BaakYIIYt.-1h D
I'"
5
IWDl'g
.. gAn
Rd6
291 ...... ~_
........
R_MORd6
1.59
... ..
A'OAn., !li(d VIoId
.7~
125
II
20

65.7
34.8'

63.1 Thotsie Roll Industries continues to


struggle.
The lack .f top-line growth
PISt Est'd ... 'IZ

QUAR18lLl SAlfS ~ lilli'

.r.P,r

...

.61

57.8

!IIar.P,r JIln.Per s,pJ r DecJI"


lli 18.0
90.4 165.9 92.8

2110'
2llO2

.63

"
2D

~.~
....... .

.. W
f 1 0 0 1 f 0 0 0
InsUlutio1'lll1 D.clsions
10'0>
56

.26
.03
.05
1.36

Price Range

2006 2007 2008

Shrlglh

IN.

--'.

JJASONDJF

11957

27.4
15.1

18.'13.8

I~

Insider Decision.

57

11.4

AM' TGIII .'~

(+4O%l
."2"
(+5%

30

'.2

n.D.-CIlbF"'psh

i."b:, ~19~

2DD6-0SPROJE",. ~~,S
PriCI
CO

10.3

28.981~oo23.0(~:n~:lli):'~ 1.42 t 1.0%

LEGENDS

.65 ('IDll-Mart.d)

....

,. .

low:

1....,"" ...

SAfIY
TECHNICAl.
BETA

_'I 10.8
"'~I112.0
5'~i

4 !MI!Irdm,

lIlIJ1IESS

PRICE

CCIII'Ip:;J;:fmndill!IIJ'Mgtl!
stlct"s riel staIIrlly
PI'a Gnrwth I'ersliDlnc.
ElUnlngs p~ctUllly
I

".

A<

115
80
80

: II:

II,

TRIARC COS.INC NYSETRY


lWElJN[SS

SAFElY

3 ,",,,'''

.70

High:

~':e. ~

PROJECl1O.~~.

I!:~

Pri'"
50
50
+5%
Insid~r DltClsion5
J A I 0 D
001
0 0 0
000
0 0 0
_..
0 0 0 0 0 0

-.

(r5~1 18"
2"

...,

-.

.., ....,

J
0
0
0

."

t.r

0 0
0 0
0 0

:::'1 ,OJ:

t6.8

1<.4

9.5

10.0

V.,
, 1.5

lB.3
12.4

28.

22.'
14.8

16.8

26.'
21.8

28.7

29.2

22 .

25 .

".

I',.

111

,_ ,"""",
.. .. ......
,-

I"

",11,1/1'

,"

I'h',

..,

""'1.

."

Ta:l:t Pric. RanS20

-_.
----. ..--

-~..

..
I

15
I

'''''I

..

...

Mom.

1.,,,

,,,,, ,....

..

Pension Plan

Ptd S10ck None

Common Stod 20,947,333 Ihl.

Ro_

..

MARKET CAP: HOG m1IS1on(Small cap)

2001

2002

1/3llI03

859.9
15.0

632 .
13.0

625.0

..
.-

1062.5
12.2\
51.5
d2.f
N.'

NM'
1362
612.1
40.0
5.0"
N.'
NO'

..

1184.2

92%
602
d3T.O
N.'
N.'
1532
783.3
20.7
.1%
N.'
N.'

..

... 2
12.010
S2.7
iIl.S

NM'
N.'
1952

"".
6.'
5.01
N.'
N.'

..

-'"
=: ....

;:;

..

"'

118.9
136.8
325\
.43."\
D."" 1-4.04\ 14.4\
6.S
17.7
352
35.3
OJ
9.0
d20.6
112
7.0 d101
512\
492\
10."
N.'
NOF 1,41"
J\
6.\
596.4 556.7
130.1 208.~ 237.9
8509
291.1
289.0
604.'
33~4
44.0
109 d166.7
282.3
6.61
3.'"
69'
N.'
NOF 2.7%
N.'
N.'
N.'
27\
NO' N.'
N.'
N.'
1613

B15.o

NM'
NM'

....

2.""

..

..

..

..

..

Ip.
3p.
'po

~.1

'2.

3D2

23.'

e YAllEUlIEPUBlie.
R"UlSpII'M

CuIt_
Ea:mmlll

Aa

.. oII

per'"

Alii

Dtid, Ded'd per III


C"" ....... Dpo'lIt
look VIllI' pi!' III C
D
A'Il
R_PIERdo
AYlI Ann' DiY'd YWd
R .... lII5(Sm1) A

- .......A1tn'~""do

3M
no
98.'
232\
18.0% O_.ii.n;;,
"0%
6.6
It.
11.0
dO.8
1.8
U ... PlvftN
1.0% 1.8% InanI To RItI
N.'
NOF
-'" 14% ...PlvftM_
5fO.4
588
588 -D
Cop' (Iooil)
352.7
350
350 LanD""'_~1
no
332.7
JI S1tr.-_IW,
.5\ 10%
J.O% A..." r Totli C..,
1", R_ ... SItr. EqWIy
NO'
,5\ RnIned 111Cen Eq
N.'
..
HI
HI AllWdJ III IW Pn1I

~-(""I

."'
."'

"'"

2U5
178
158
HI
.58
31.45
I.

lU
1.85
HI
458
"0%
25.8
53.8
1.8%
11.1"
1M
350

.."
458

118%
118%
Hi

BUStlES5: Tnan: CampaniBs, Inc.. owns 239 and flanc:hiles 3,164


qlllCk-wvice l1lSbIurants (as of 12121W2). Alby's, whi:tI
.spec:iabs i) sbw-masil!d nMiIlt sandwi::tle!, I7di-t:nnds" T.J.
CiInamons' prockds, pRnwily gowmel: I3II11mD11roll and cuifees, and Pas1a ConnecWn'!1 pnxlue:ts, n....
1y pasta dishes. no
qund T.J. Cin~,
9100; Sybra, Inc., 12102. Div8st8d splEiIltJ

d)'llS business,
1V37; wtilel buli'less, 4198. Sold SnlPpIe
B8V8ragft Group, 10100. Has appna.i'nnIy 5,030 snpIay&es and
3,570 dIss A mmmon shambotlln.
otfian & dnan
tuIIrD'
-41..4%af mrrmon (04103Praxy). CMmwn & CEO: Netson PeIl.
Pru.: Peter w. M~. Inc.: DE. Adm.: 280 P.... Avenlllil, New Yeri,
NY 10017. Tel.: 212-451-3000.ll"IIarrIIIt:: www.biIn:.CDm.

Triarc's restaurant
operations
are
faring
pretty wen th""" days. Though
Put
Est'd '000'12. comparable~store sales at the company's
ANNUAl. RATES ,ut
51lL
Arby's franchises
fell 2.0% In the March
-20.0% -30.5%
28.0%
''Cash Acw"
- - n.s" period. owing to severe weather. aggres-Eamilgs
sive discounting throughout the fast-food.
N'"
---.
- - 7.0%
industry, and sluggish economtc conditions
79.5%
Bot*Velue
23.5%
In the U.S.. royalty fees Increased
modQUARlBlI.YR~III.j'.
CoIestly. This was due to a larger mix of new
..... .31 Ju.3O
00<.31 You restaurants,
which continue to generate
21.2
118.9 higher sales volumes than the more ma36..6
25.4
29.7
136.8
29.8
30.7
36.7
39.6
!lIIl'
ture Arby's units. What's more, we expect
25.2
27.9
19.0 25.7
98.8 camps to gradually pick up in the coming
75.3
77.0 71.0 JOO
2113
69.7
quarters, thanks to a number of promising
17.0
335
71.0
.4.0
18.8
growth InlUatives.
lnc1udlng new Markel
~
PERstARE"'.
Full
C...
Fresh premium sandwiches, a new bread
... .31
S.. .JO 00c.J1 r., program. and. a national TV advertising
Fd.44 campaign. Speed-of-service :;rrovements
.34
.28 d1.32
.'6
d.08
.07
!lIIl1
.36.
.04
'.40 and. the closure of addition
underperd.12
.08
d.4S
!lIIl2
d.lI5
d.37
forming
locations
should
also
yield
slg.87
.85
dlO
d.1I1
.at
2003
benellts
In
.11
.40 nl1lcant top- and bottom-l1ne
.OR
.18
.10
2003 and beyond.
c... QIWllERlJ DIYIl_PAIl
The Sybra integration is pi ogresslng
lu.31 Jun.30 SH)8
DK31
Ysmoothly.
(Trlarc
acquired
Sybra,
the
1191
second-largest franchisee of Arby's with
NOCASHCIVIlENOS
239 units. In a bankruptcy
reorganization
B8NGPAID
!lIIl1
late last year.) In fact, on average, the
!lIIl2
Sybra restalU"8llts are prodUcing higher

sarne~store sales than the other Arby's


unJts in the franch1se system. This should
enable Trian:: to eventually sell off the
locations.
Indlvldually
or In clusters.
to
smaller franchisees at a substantial proftt.
Meanwhlle, we thInk the Sybra restaurants will help the company [0 strengthen
the Arl>ys brand name and to make the
most of its advertising dollars.
The emnpany continues to evaluate
acquisition opportunities. Following its
purchase
of ~.
Trlarc stili hos more
than S600 mI on In cash on hand Oargely
generated
through the sale of the Snapple
Beverage Group in 2000) that it is actively
looking to put to work. As such. while
management remains very disdpllned in
Its search for a distressed.
und""'alued
company with good tumaround
potenUaI.
we expect a ~or
deal to be announced
before too long. till ...
New commitments are best deferred
undl niarc finally lands the big one.
That said, given the company's $30-ashare cash position, we think there's little
downside to this unranked Issue at the
current quotaUml..
JusUn Hellman
June 13. 2003

Ca~~

''''''''''''Y

000<

CurT8nt Ass8ts
Acds Payabl.
Do"OUo

000<

--....
--.....
-Cumtnt

Liab.

--

115
2.1

2.3

1-4.9
689]

23.0
22 .
1170.9
6612
2.9
19.0
15.9
34.4
38.0
24 .
105.-4 ...1Q!J
101.6
160.5
133.1
'555

--

"""""'"
,

,.,

'''''

Jun..

.....
2003

No,',

.....

"'_Ow"1 'n...

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
...

..

0/ 4i3<II1l3

CURRENT" PDSmDN

....."""

....-0,
.-

~ Tat RTURIII W3

CAprrAL STRUCTURE all of 3I3tW3


Teal Debt $378.9 mil. Due In 5 YIS $190.0 mil.
LT brbtrnl $25.0 mil
LT D-bt S340.9 ml.
(51% of Cap',
lau., Uncapltalad Annual rentals S16.3 mil

"16
12

".

32

l'1"

$,

38
11938

...."
2.

h/llllll 11111
111'1",,, ,1111"
I
I
Ir"IJIlI
1999 000 2001 2002 2003 2004
On April23, 1993,NelsonPeltz and Pefer 1993 994" 1995 1996 1997_
W. May (lhrough DWG Acquis~lonGroup)
4.85
f4.~ lU5
27.82 28.71
HI
6.n
44.35 :11.59
33.10 2126
.. 1.82
acquired Vidor Posners maj~
share
1.59 1..42
.76
d.16
.70
1.15
.78
1.48 dll9
d.l'
.. d.34 d124 <l28 d.68 .36 26 d.44
ownership of Tria'" (illCOIJlO'atod
in 1994).
.05
.1
d."
..
..
..
.. Hi
.. .. .. .. .. "
In July 1996,
Lynchand DU led a
Hi
.. ~51 2.34 1.01 A4 54 54 .44 1.2S .01 .60 .58
6.3-miIlion-share public offeringof Tria"'"
.. d1.33
National Propane ,ub~diary, generating
.'!1 d5.61
10.48 16.33
16.32 .. 15 lll8
.69
.23
..
,..7,
$117.4 million.Late in 1!l!J1l,Peltz and May
.00
.00
i6
29."
.. H..
..
.. .. .. .. .. HM'
made a "going privato- proposal la pur
..
..
..
.,
.. NIF
.. .. N.'
chase the remaining Triarc shares outstand..
..
..
..
..
..
..
.~
ing,butwlthdrewlhe offerinMar<h 1999.

No Odin" Ben.

2007 2008

:~

GO>

37
11789

9.S

reussiln

Hf

Institutional D.ci.lons
37

211.'

,",

'Ii

Ann1TDl:II

l%

33.
14.0

.~~~~:~s.tngII
I

n.DO M..-)

2006-48

15.3
3.

,-,,,,,

i'Z9IJ)

-""'
"
.... ,-

TECHNICAL
BED.

~ed

Nil

28.181~mNMF(~=::::O~J%NMFIt

I~CENJ
PRICE

~r_
....""_"f2lJ1;,.._
rI pru yr. blilftn "94. fB) DlJlIld l1li5.
after '96. ExcL nome.. .1nS.: '94, d26t!; "96,

.."

Sf.91:lrn';nd,__

(EJln_.(~~

0;"'._,
.. , OJ:'', $20.32;",
Nex1 egs. rpl 8lIfIy Aug. (Cllnd. in1lng.: 'tl2. oc-n1 SWIl dUill kJ changes WI .... dilutad
$99.0 mi.,
54.861m (0) Sold Snappla .hIre bI:_ (G) fbrvenI& indude i'JvesI.
d1~; '97, d56; "98, d2t!; 119, 56t!; '00, d89t!. bevllr.lg8 unI, 1MX1. '00 dd po bma; it rnanlfdt.- iJa:ma hough 1)2.
CI 2li)J. YU t..iIe ~~
1't5eI'ItII. FIltwlIIIIfIiII
i'5ll1UMd IKIlI 'IOIIItft ~
10 be ~
..
is pllMlll ......
~
III
lIh:L
TlI PU8UWR
IS NOT RE
E OR MY ERRORS OR tMSSIoONS HEREIL ~
is *i:::Iy b' ~5
-'''
till ..... _~ pIIt
.. I..,
lie ""lIlIDaIL tnoId...m .-.."
1ft)' ~
~........

kIl gBMI-*'g C111M1l1*'1g., prn.d ~ IIIIl:nIIi: fIIlliII::*I. -nee fIIOdId.

StDck's dell StablIty


Pr1c8 GIVWtJI ~
Eaml ... PradictUllty
I

I '.

100
45
5
:

II.

II ' ,

WEIS MARKETS NYSE-WMK


I
3l~lmom
1...,mlll

1WEUNESS
SAFElY

TICHNICAI.
mA

HI,h:
Low:

27.;
23.1

2'.~
24.0

TZ,m

_~"'1!1l

."

12%
."

'

"'OJ

20

5140

29.41
21-1
1.65
.58
15.52
43.53

2.39
1.81
.54

~39
Ul
.56
1~
4531

H6
1JJ
.60
13.64

14.64

4422

15.5

'4.73

16.5

137
1.71\

1.25
In

15.0
1.11

Ira!'

16.4
1.05
~1%

~"

1556.1

1646.4

17532

25.5'

21.3'
7.1'

21.1%
'3%
151
19.'

28.0%
7.3%
156

7.5%
141
13.0

413.6

26.5
170.0
11.1

10.0
817.2
18.2

O\he'
00..-

~120

.....

240.1
98.4
3.A
137.8

Put

8.5%

9.5%

..

_V ....

5.0%

4.0"

0'"
~.J:s
5.5%
'.0%
,.%
"
ca., Iu.PerllIlNlTBILTSAlfS
II olll'
Jun.Per SIP.PH ~

-2003
CoJ.

.ndar

2001
2lI02
2003

.....,
CoJ.

11!1!l

2011
2lI02

2003

0189.1
SOU
509.1

509.0
492.-1
491.9

-185.9

-198.6

302
182.0
4.0
264.4
101.9
41.6

1495

......

Est"d'lO-'12

Un.

1U ....

47.4

31.9

25.1
'68.5

Cumtnt AblIt5
Acds PlIyabie

121'Z11G2

5.""

.""
6.5"

1.""

4.""

.",

'ur
546.-1 2061.0
507.9 '9611.2
507.2 1999.-1

-195.9
505
57U ZGZ5
5!5
m 525 53D Z10D
EAlM'GS PER SHARE ....
l.r.Per Jun.Per s:.-;;:p., DK.P.
Yur
.43
.-14
.<8
.46
1.8'
.-11
1.65
.-13
.<8
.37
.54
~10
.46
.58
.50
.58
.51
Z.lll
.14
.50
130
.51
.14
.61
.51
llUAR_T Dl'IIIEIIlS PAIl Coo
Full
Yoor
lar.31 Jun.30 Sen.30 Ded1
1~2
.25
.2ll
.25
.25
1.06
.26
.26
.'11
.'11
1.06
:J.1
.27
.'11
:J.1
.lI
.'11
1.06
27
.'11
27

4'5

.."

r:

~46
1.75
.14

1'.53
43.48
14.5
]5

149
161

~65
1.84
.BD
18.61

Vi

~95

1.8'
.58

..,.

1ISi1, ......

2006

2007

-- ... ....
...-- ....

.- --

42.53

19.47
42.04

1-1.6
.90
3.0%

16.6
1.01
2.8%

'U
34.71\

ill..,. .....

~"

19.31

41.16

41.69

41.69

27.20

199
l.oJ
~8%

19.B
1.13
~I%

20.1

19.5

21.19
15.4

1.31

2.9'10

1.00
3.3%

Jl
3.3%

2004.9 2061.0
17.1% 28.8%
6.9'10 6.1'
165
165
n.8 751
35.5'1. 36.S1I
3.6"
3.""
481.8
496~

1968.2
29.3%
6.0%
165
533
38.811
271\
1023

1.... -1

25.0

25.0
652.-1

41.71

16.7
.96
J.O%
lB1!.!
27.8'
7.5%
154
19.6

1867.5

17.7%
6.6%
151
15.4
31.4'

3.13
1.65
1.08

4.8'
<811

4.51

4.4%

4.0%

4632

411.5

489.5

1M.t

762.4
10.0%
10.Ql1

191.6

818.5

84'J

890.6

918.5

!l4'~ 525."

10.0"1t
10.0'4

9.6'1.
9.6%
5.11

9.41

8.51.

8.51

9.4'ti

15%
3.9%

8.5%
3.8%
55%

'.1"
7.9%
3J%
59%

..

5.81

'2%

..

... Tot R1URIII MIl

I,

1.87
1.02
22.03

1.90
.94
20.28

..

..

5.71
43%

'1%

34.1'

..

4n

..

"'" '"

..

'

BUSltESS: Weis Markets, Inc..opera ..

.....
""
.,

9.7"
10.1'

3.1"
'0%

3.!6
2.10

1.08
20.31

UO
UD
.. 00
IUD
22.!5

-1.15
131
1.10
2110
IUS

.......-:;;~1--

28.8'

6.4%
.00
513
31.5%

29%
114.9

10.41
10.4"

5.11
51%

M!5

,1.0"
UlI
tit
10.'
22.'"

U"
125

HI
>IS
fO.5%
10.'"
5.l
41%

"CuIt_~1It
Elmift;1 pi!' III
Div'dl Ded'd,.,

Ib

Book 'iIIuI pi!' III

c:.

C_
Shi OlItsfg E
AYQAnI' PlE AdD

.0
30
25
20

"

10

1-75

~
I~
11~
... 0
1'0
1.15
II.It
22.5D
110
l.OO
11%

!I.OlI
I.5lI

lO"
'IS ,.....ot ...

.."

SO

-,. -I"'"
.........

noo

80
60

.."

253
100
-HI

~.1

RlIIItln PIERdo
AVV Ann' DiY'dYIIId

!!.0lI

2008

,It

U.O Iht ProIt !WI


22.'" IIICQ111Tu RaIl

37.'"

H.tfrolt

11K

7U

150 W_,ClplllN.)
HI """T .... 1lobI (lnI)
5lIr.
fO,O% R_
... T..... ~
1_
RlUnoa StIr. E
5011 R...,IoCanEq

...

4Ill AI DlY'dl tD ...

Prell'

"5H'
'31

,.'"
le.",
LOll
43K

163 rttlli food Inlri'.llb (m


,... emf U1J, incb:fll1g boll tlJpetStores and COIMII1ixlaI nns,
b::aI9d in PA (13211klrM), MD (23), NJ (4), NY (2), VA. (1), and WV
(1). Owns .bout 50% rI st... Seh n.f11n11d merchandise pm
2,000 Qms u'"
Is CIlIm bdsrT..u. Owns Su,P8JPltz, B 33-alnt
(111: yennd)
pel. supply ct1an witl sbIlS n 0Ii (8). PA. (1). SC (5),

in GA., IN, KY, MD, & He. Sot! Wl!is


Food 5erYi:8,
'4100. '01 depnIc. m.: 5.3". Has aboul 6,000
slYhkh., 19,000 emps. RF. W.IMI'II 48.5" rIslDck; EIIMI W..
.-man, 11.7% (I3 ptQ;q'). ChUTMn: Robert: F. Weis. ~.:
NomIin
S. Ri:h. Inc..: PA.. AddMIs: 1000 SDUCh Seun:l street,
SunbLwy,PA. 17801. Till.: 510-288-4571. bBh&t: ........
com.

Wets Markets opened 2003 in soUd


fashion.
as
Man:h-quarter
eam.ItJ8S
climbed 7% year over year. Notably, these
gains came on the heels of a strong share~
net recovery in 2002 and despIte a shift In
the tlmin~ of the Easter holiday, which
likely shl ed some sales into the semnd
quarter. With the number of stores in operation virtually unchanged for the past
three years, there was once again Uttle
movement on the top line. The company.
though. was able to keep operating profits
rising by ImpruvIn~ store and distribution
productivity and
ectIve1y managing Its
promotional activity.
Weis bas been a standout .f:rfonner
In the supennarket sector.
e cornpa
ny has increased its same-store sales :In
seven conseaJtlve quarters. Although the
gains have been modest, a sluggish economy and compeUtlve pressure have made It
difficult
for many
other
traditional
groctty-store operators to match these resuits. Moreover. the company has been
able to achieve these gains without rel~
too heavily on margin-sapping pricing
pmmoUonal actlv.lty. 1he retailer's narrow
geographic focus-80% of Its stores are in

PennsylVania-is
probably contributing to
these results. The company has relatively
modest exposure to
Albertson's.
and Kroger. which have all been oo~ting
more agg:resslve1y for market share.
eanwhile. a key rival., Giant, may well be dIstracted to some degree by the woes of Its
owner, Ahold. sun. we look for only modest earnings gains In upa>mlng quarters,
to reflect the prospect that the
enges fac~ other food retaUers could
become more of a drag on Wets.
The company plans to Increase
Ita
capital
spen~
by over 50% this
year. to roughly
70 mUUon. Along with
dividend payments, this activity. Including
building four new stores and remodeling
19 others, will likely absorb most of the
retal1er's cash flow in 2003. As a result.
the company would probably haVE!to tap
Its credit lines 10 finance any sizable share
~urchases
or acquisitions.
ese neutrally
ranked shares
appeal to conservative investors,
predation to 2006-2008 is modest, but the
stocks dividend yield and Safety rank are
well above average .
Robert M. Greene. CFA
May 9. 2003

'bssesl

Na:d.

(A) Frs:aI
enets an tasI s.twdIy n De- nfr gains
'92, 2; '91, (3); '98,~;
t:8JUt. IS Bald on nfl. Wr8s 0llt!iD1Xl.ng
'OO,:; tI ,(1Oj . '02, 71.
1Bpa1due'
ttmugh '96, diUvd!hlnaftllr. '01 an1iIgs do mlhluly':LNell: div'd meetng &Illy July.
not add due to dlange in sham eM. EdJd8I Goes 81
Aug. Div'd payment dates: about
CJ zrm3, VIlle t..ft: ~~
1'IWIlliI. Fldllllllllllrill
is .......
~
~
to lie
THI'l8JSlnlSMHIi:
E:ORMrrE:IlRDASOROIISSIOltfSHERE
. T1W~
.sn:IJ'b
...

, 1"',,-

3.02
1.91
1.00
22.'4

2.91
1.80
.90
21.33

34.8'

9.1"

2001

35.M

4""
505'

9.9'

llIOI
21102

.. ','" ,

34.9'

5.11
42%

519.T

",

35.8%
5.1'
513.2

MARKET CAP: $175 million (Small Cap)

(UFO)

Target Price R.ngll

27A

7.S
5".
I
199& 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 cYALlElJEPIII .C.
JlI.71 41.7D <354
-1'-12 <8.D9 .u.... 13.1J9 13.52
'~3I 77." Sllaplf"M A

1441.1

Cammon Stocl '2.7,193,535 slls.

Receivab19s

32.2

39.5
28.9

1 ".

~9%

]5

..

eo",11I1Ll
.....

25.8

3".

2.6%

.. of 121'ZM2
Du. tn 5 Yrs Ni
LTIl'IlI:FBtNB

CURRENT POSIT1ClN

38.3

I.....

.96
2.6%

PM Stock None

....

.,

1~.8

No Pension Plan

~",,(por"'1
"Cash ___
Sales

,f' .
,,,.'

32.90
233
1.66
.10
16M
43.80
16.1

Uncapltalzed Annual rentals $28.8 nil

ANNUAL HAlES

453
32.0

1lOIII

US
1.82
.50
1123
45..2

CunentUah.

32.9

1.5
I

p"""nt

28

23
5076

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE
Total Debt N~
LT Debt NU

Inventory

40

.'ll
,"

1987 1988 1989 1990


26.11 lIJ5
24.77
28.<3 2927

lusH,

33.3

" "'"' ......


'""'"
II'
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

10'",
33
25
500<

1.4,

38.'

"if
1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

45.56
192
1.28

36.3
26.9

i;i

Institutional Delslona

.-13
99'

27.8

3.4%

:-N

100000000

~OI
1.66

34.'

29.0
24.0

DI'/'l)
YIJ)

If-l

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

...,
::~.

.1..

28.0
23.9

IU) RElATM
Pf RAm.
ledi~: nJ

JJAIIOONDJF
__

"t.th FltM- P ~

I.Q I
1/1ll

OJXI-Mart.lt)

45
+40%
35
+10%
IlUIider~i5lDn.

IIIq'

f
RATD

LEGENDS
_
11.D.c..thF'-'plhunll

ZOOi-OI PROJECllONS_
AM''CTcrW

...
0;,;;;.,.--..
"""tln~l.....

.6!i

0 90

I~coo
31 961f 14 S(T.. q:
PRICE

*-liI: .......

1IYIIIlb

......

TN (4), A.l (2). Ml (2), 1 ..

.sareway.

:Jiart

mI't;.t

lhlI 25th cI Feb., .. .,., Aug., and Nov . D'ld


ntmesinent plan .,;Jillbl9. ,D) 11ldudes i'I.
~.
No 12129101: $24.1 ml., B91share.
(E) In mi. (F) GroceIy stores only.
I'IIIiItiI! .-:I is lJtWIef .....
RITMIrs
UId.
......
_,n~
...........
I*!
--...,
.......
*tr:1IlIic ~
SInD. prDlU1

rI"L

CampallJ'S Flnanclll.,..gtII
SIDct's Pm:. stIIilty

100

Price Gnndh PlI........


ElIRllnp Pl'lldlc:bIIIllJ
I

,'.

30
90
:11:

II',

ALBERTSON'
S NYSEABS
4.....,_

lII[UNBS

Z N~m.119D

SAFElY
TECHNiCAl

...,

flftlm

....,

cec;
__~
.,
,.

*1

UIlS

::~1277~~

'I

\'

"

40'02
1!2

183

II

~> ~
~

lnatitutlonal Decision.
"IllY

.. """I
-..
.......

262~~2~~

1987 1988 1989 1990 1~1


25.1ll
.94

22.11
.15
.47
.12
~'1
265.44
14.3
.96

IT.11
1.1
.73
10

29.'
23'

30.9
2~1

34.'
27.3

43.'
31.5

67.1
44 .

30.5

3~85
1.48
.as .97
24
2S
4.08
4.04
267.64 !64~
18.3
20.9
1.36
1.33
1.4%
15'

...

30.71
133

57
547

Receivables

receDiln

",

CulTllnlAssets
Accts Payable

Oe ..

68'

3196

200.
137
1352

2'63
82

""'"'

.....

Put

Put

11Yn.
10.5%

11.0%

ANNUALRATU

.....

11* .. ,

"Caoh ......

.IS:

3!&

3395

2973

2OlJ9

"'

1320

3448

..,. ........'"
5.""

6.""

'''II 2.""
.'"
IIoil
.=.
10.0%

12.0%

QllIRTBlY SAlES
JulP"

647

Esfd 110-'02

1.0%

8.0%

10.5"

A",."'r

162

U...

'2..,.

Eamilgs
Divi:lends
Boc*VIlIue

,/31W3

'268

Cum!lrrtl..iah.

Od.P.r

Jan."'r

Y-

..
-- - e
lIIOI

lI01
lIlI2
lIlI2

9013
9331

9214

8921
NOlI

9577

8991
9363

8941

865T

"

."

9660
910T
9lll/l

36762
.7931
3502li

.-

...

Ca.

9544

'S2lV
ITlV
II5G
~PSI!HARE
.. II
8r~ "pr.Per J.IP'r Oc:t.Ptr Ja Ptr
.53
.SO
.60
2.06
.45
2lIII1
.46
.45
.60
1.95
.44
lIlI2
.59
.5$
.52
.47
~13
.51
tlO
lIlI2
.51
.5'
.53
120
.84
.53
QllIRTBlYIlMlOOS
PlII'o
Fu
_1Id.r 1b'.31 J... .30 5. 30 lle<.31 Y.. ,
.11
1199
.18
.11
.18
.18
.18
.19
.19
.19
.75
2lIIIl
.19 .1'
.19
.16
.1'
.19
lIlI2
.19
.19
.76
.19
.19
lIlI2

.....

"

1111

Q.

"

ORNi'!"RAOflS

"~nfIIJ

-- ..

.
... .......
2'

15

~"

25'

50
3.

-- ...

,~.
,~.
,~.

"'.,

..41.5

18.91

BO
60

20

34.1
S).3

,,~

1SAI

26'

173%

15.51-

21'

:lO'I'

14.91.
:lO'

88.45
4,.41
U6

90.77
4.62
~08

9310

.n

.76
14.06

.76

13.46
0423.70

4.41

U,
1453

405.00

-407.00
16.0

20.'

13.5

1.17
1.6'1.

.88

.82
~4'

~"

37478

36762

37931

3D.1'
7.61
2492

3121
7.71

31.2%
7.04%

2512
1/55.0 81D.O
311.9' 39.8'
2.41
25'
521.0
4992.0
5102.0

14.91

10.6'
16.71
12.11

28'

28'

IT-'D

95.77
4.88
W
.16

4.10
tlO
.71
lU5

13.97
372.00
13.0
.71
2.7'1.

'"''

3f.8lI
7.",

....

7.71.

2421

56904.0

5915.0

9.1'
15.3'

8."
13.4'
82'

9."

36' 39'

17>

31.",

~
f-

I6-IlI

1aZ.1S ~pIl'lfI"
~20 'Cult FI<Jw"l-"
120 an*lg11lll' III A.

lXII

.71

.....

Dh'dl Dld'd ,.

III

1'.15 8"*_",,

....~ ......

30626
319'

100
.1.8

I- 7.'

2004 eYAlllElJIEPIJII Ie.

- --,....

"".GO

1287
795.0 84lI.0
41.0%
3U"
2.1%
~4'
lKI5.0 1027.0
820.0
5336 . 5251 .
'9m

BUSINESS: AIb8tson"s, lnc.. opID1Bs 1,519 sup8llNltsb


(85 d
1JJ0103) and 706 s1a1llk1one mu91i0fl!S i\ 31 l1Iils 8t:rtlSS the
U.S. Acquftld AmBri:an StnI (1.580 s1on!s), 6199; Btft1ry (29
sbes), 10198: &uno', (14 nns),
8198; &TIlIy's (10 sins), 4138;
seeuers
(10 stores), 1f38. OIIB bal'lllln indo Osco Drug, Sav-on,
Aane Mart8Is, Mill! FoocIl, Ind LucKy SbeI. Op.ntes
17 diAi-

'till
..Ill
ID5
790

31.",

LlO

..

CClItIIRIl $hs QuUfg


AVI Ann'l
Rdo

Pre

R_P/ERdo
A'll Ann' Ov'd YWd

"'(Inm)A
GnIs.Ihrg~
Opordng IIqit

_01 ....
NIl frol

110

."

e-

JU5

1<0
US
till

'U"
7.7"
sa

...

/1<08/

InconII Ta RIll

12"

3I.5lI

NIl .....
U%
710
.2.1 WorIdng CIp'111n1ll
55il
52.111 5350
5250
I
1nIIl
5191.0
8420 5110 SI".
",..,
"S;
10.111
bUn on Tutal Cap'
1(01
16.31 1(511 l(a!I R....
lit SIw. E""
RItIiMd to Cen Eq
11t.0%
lD.4'
AI Dtf'dI to .... Prof
36'
'Ill
centBn 1tIiI( III)d'ClI ilbou1 7M; of mmcfIandile.
Has lib!.
IIITIPl 2002 de1M'. rata: 6.4%. or&. & dnc:brI hold abolJl:

"'" ..'"
..'" "'"
'"'

14"

~;:::w"

.."
""

bufion
202,000
2.1% 01 Itlck;
Res&nIl, 9.DIJI,; .. .nus
Stlbmg, 7.'%:
Lsgg Maln,
6.!J'I, (5102 Proxy). Ch.lnnan
ml CEO: ~
Johnsttl. Inc:.: DeftanL AdG".: 25CIPlltat_
E1w1&nld, Bo6A,
Idaho 8372e. Tal: 208-395-6200.
Intramet ..... at-tsons.aJITI.

ea.,

Eanlings at Albertson's
are under pealing to eonswners. The oompany is Introdudng its dual-branded (annat to the
pressure.
The company. along w1t:h many
other supermarket operators. has been southern California market. This concept,
which
features separate drug and food.
rclagued by a lackluster sales environment
or mum of the past year. In response. the store brands operatlng Wlder the same
food retailer has been intensifying Its pric- roof. has worked well In Chicago and ArIIng and promotional programs to halt zona. Albertson's Is also experimenting
declln1ng same-store
sales trends, AI- with warehouse-style stores for pricethough
t:hese efforts are helping Albert- sensitive customers and a (onnat aimed at
son's to defend Its market share. the re- appealing to Hispanic populations.
suiting margin pressure. along w1t:h rising These shares offer attractive 3- to 5employee benefit and insurance costs, Is year total-return
~tentiaL The neartaking a toll on the bottom Uno. On t:he term eamings outloo remains dreary. and
positive Side, the food retaUer should cap- the stock Is an untimely selection for yearture even more savings from the restruc- ahead price perlormance. The current
turing efforts It has instituted aver the valuation
suggests that investors are
past two years. As a result, we expect the clearly concerned about the cornpetiUve
erosion in the co~'s
earnln~ power threat from nontraditional rivals, espeto be relatlvely m est in fiscal 003 (be- dally WaIMart. Though not discounting
gan January 31st),
this challenge, we think. the market may
The food retailer Is cutting back. its be underestimating the role a lackluster
new store openings. It plans to build eronomy is playing In the company's curabout 65 new unJts this year, down from rent difficulties. As such, we expect a
93 In 2002. Albertsons. though, has no gradual acceleration In economic activity
plans to let up on remodeling activity, will allow Albertson's to reestabUsh earnwith nearly 200 units slated for major
growth In fiscal 2004 and over t:he
renovations this year. Other initiatives are pu to 2006-2008 .
also under way to make stores more ap- Robert M. Greene, CFA
May 9. 2003
I1lJfH'tICIail losses: '92, 3t!; '93, 5t!: '94, lTIII-JuIy. Appruz. di't. IJIlI'Mlnt utes: F"trualJ comP:7::; Flnancid strwIlIlb

ln9f

II'

2008

40

"

(AJ FIlICiIII,.. "nds Thanlay IIIIIBftSt Jan.


Em.
31st d blowing calRnda")IelII". (B) Baed on
31; '98, 6; W,
1.31; '00, 25; '01, T2: \12, 10, Id.y 10, Aug. 10, Nov. 10.
sMrlls r.uIsL tmJugh 1996, d-..:l
19. Exd. bsS torn disc. ops.: '02:
Oivihm:l rHriesment t:n
__
bill.
thent
. Nul . Alpart d.1IiIrIy June.
(e) Next dividltnd I'MBI:ng By JUIIIl. Goes II): (Dlln mlioos, ad;.st.:l
Act spha.
CI ZO)l, YIIIIe ..
~~
nseMd. r.ulllllbill
is DII.n.1I1on11 -.rtn b*IIeII tD lie 1'ItiItIIe ... is porided ....
........"
or~

T11EPUlUSIR t5 M)T R[
II ..,. .tIpftIlIII::IIlll5llld.
..

2OD6 2007

.... -

111'1,1'1,1

01

1.4,

647

'300

aue

TII,,_ Pric. Range

'I TO'L RT\ItII JID3

384'
1.69
1.05
.32
625

85

3364
332

.. ,(UFOI

204.3
17.8

35.5
18.8

37.0
24.0

I
1992 ~1~~$19941 1995 1~6~3

- .... ...
....

CURRENT POSmoN

20.1

.,

IIARKET CAP: 57.3 billion lLarge Cap)

Ca,\,l"~

3 .3

3.8%

.,

4'.53 46.83 49.96


5Q.78
65.14
~16
~B4
3.14
3.90
3.44
1.311 1.65
1.84
1.96
~37
2.09
.14
.42
.36
.52
.60
.88
.64
~99
6.65
3.47
T.75 8~
9.85 11.44
'.48
287.n 267.64
"'.66 253.41 253.98 25,.2 250.69 245.704 245.70
13.
19.0
17.1
19.5
17.0
112
17.9
2'.1
22.5
128
1.13
1.13
1.14
129
1.12
1.03
1.17
'22
1.4,
1.51
1.71
1.61
In 1.7% 1.6%
1.71
1.3'
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE ItS of 113D1l13
11284 11895 12585 I,m 14690 16005
29.71
24."
272'
28.0'
28."
21"
Total [MIll: $5J7e mil D.... 1n 5 YI'S $950 nil
8.41
8n
7.3"
8.1"
8.3'
8.3'
LT Debt $5257 ml
LT ~rat $4:25 mil
616
no 764 828 an !183
Ind. $307 mil. capitalized I!ases.
411.4
45C9 493.8
352.1
516.8
~8
(Es!:'d lTirdBnls1 elVI'Ied: 4.;b; tlfalirdl/nl5t
cowenge: 4.3x)
(SO,," Of Cap')
38.7\
37.9'11 37.51. 36.8'
311.'" 38.5"
3.6"
39/0
3.7"
16'
'.11 3.5'
Lus-. UnCllp/tllizld AnnUli rentals $330.0 nil
132.1
942
1945 420.8 8514
455.'
P.nskKI Aaetl-11V3 S398 ml
0111"11,
$656 nil
665.9 512.4
1322 1051.8 1130.6 16845
1389.4
18879 1952.5 22047.0 20419.5 2810,5
PM Stock None
Common Stock 366,eoo,OOO slls.
202'0 18.0"'
15.11
15.6'1. 14.1'1.
18.3'
as of4l1S103
24.7'Ii
25.3'
23.8" 22.0' 21.4'
20."

"

29.

~~O.60~

8.D.":'~f""p~

i.l,-.

Insider Dee.ions
J J A a 0 N 0 J F
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
~
000000000
.S.-l 0 0 I) 1 1 0 0 0 0
IQItll

Z.. -' ..
IiftlD
2""1 ~es 1lY93

55f:,175~~31"
40 +100% 21"

26.7

. . _ RdRft PI'n SlrcrMjll

2OlI6-4I PROJEt11ONS
Ann, Total
GIIn

High:

Low:

4 _ ...".,

PricI

IJ)
(Tr1i1ng
I.: IIJ

LEGENDS

n 1Il. NJ68J

IIfTA .&5

97
I~19.861~1Il
.... ....

ORa.sSION'SHfRE

p'*4l111ld'oM:

II' .......

. 1lBpuDIitUIrl

issatly"

lI5tlIiII""-';.--'

Cf ~

_,.Of'

II' ......

nll'ml .

hH:k'a
ric8 stlbllIlJ
Price Growth Pwa~
Earnl""
PrMldatliIlJ'

UId.
0,-

m*ecr plldlll1.

, "

75
25
9D

: II:

II.

ALLIED CAPITAL NYSE.ALD


wm
TECHNiCAl
BETA

.u

3 _~." ..

PricI
55
35

~~.

,~~
Ann, TaIII

Gafn

Rnum

+J%

32%
21"

<W"l

Insider Dee.ions
J It Ii 0

22.211~m12.8(~~::~) WJ%0.78 ~ 10.3%


High:

22.e

L"'"

20.0

29.3
12.0

24.0
16.5

21.6
15.5

20.5
18.0

29.0
1e.9

24.1
19.5

Qfalps

2006 2007 2008

.~
"
..;
,q

Itll,

41tI i'I1'

.;}

D J f

..--- ---..-_. ....

R't'tUl:l'l

I
I

--

"

6ll
..... 23

47245

013492

... ........
...
""'"

'I. TOt RElURlI4IaJ

10'

"'"
ZO

..... ...... ......


.
....
..""".
1:::'
'''' .. ......

BD
50
50

25

..,
0 1 1 019 0 0 1 2
...
000001000
;,;0.

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
lnatilufional D.aslaM

13'

.
T.rpt Pric. ~n~

LEGENDS
12.DI[.-rJIlg5p5h
.. R5IliIe PIEe ~

(1..l1O. tQl\d)

~IPROJE~~S
....
la'r

4 _~.,'"
3
...,,_

lIIruIIESS

I~ECEJIT
PRK:E

Ie

1" .

12

',,,.".

10."

-16.0

45.5

<.1

26.'

7.7

10

15

2004 ~ VAI.II:lIE PIlI. ~c.


Alklld Capitalwas formedby the Decem- 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .W~~I~OO3
..
.. .. .
ber 31, 1997 merger ofAllilld CapitalCorpo3.1,
1.10
UO EIn*lgI pII' .. It
1.94
2.16
UO
'50 1.84
.. 1.43 !.aD 1.02 2.01 2.Zl
..
..
..
..
"'100, AII~ Capital CDfpOraliDn
II, AI'ed
115
DWllsWd,."''''
.. B.55 10.12 12.07 13.57 1422 f .... 1,70 Book YIIuo
..
..
..
..
CapitalCommertialCorporntion,Allied Cap20.70
..
.. 56.73 65.93 85.29 ... B' 108.10 ,at... fl1 COIIIIIClhShl
..
..
..
ital Advisers, and Allied Capital Lending
13'110
I
.. 141 12.0
..
.. .
10~
9.6
10.9
COIJIO"'tion.InvnIldialely following the
'18
AVlAn.1
'''' Rdo
..
..
..
R_P/ERdo
merger, the new entity, which was previous.7~
.68
.62
.88
.56
.59
..
..
..
..
..
ty four investment funds and an inves1ment
Awg Ann' Dtv'd YWd
9.B'
7-'"
6.7'
B."
B.6'
9J'
adviser, became known as Allied capi1al
..
.. 856.1 129),0 1853.8 2460.7 27913
..
..
..
511 7""_f~)
mo
Corporation. Over tho last five years, 1he
.. BOO.3 1228' 1788.0 2329.6 24881 Z751l >f5ll laIno fino_I
..
..
..
..
a>mpany has ",ised about $900 million of
..
.. "'.0 99.2 141.0 1n.9 196.4
..
..
..
210
equity capital to fuelits growth.
..
.. 3.2
..
..
..
..
.. HI
61
111
HI t.lL..
HI

..

CAprrAL STRUCTURE as of 12131112


Total Delli $998.5 mil. Due In 5 lIS $925.0 mil.
LT Interal $65.0 ml.
LT DlbI $794.2 mill.
(34.0% ClfCap'IJ
IMsn, Uncapitd;zed: None
No De&led Ben.
PIonsion PI..
PM DlY'd $.2 mil
PM Stocl $7.0

m"

(.5% "Cap~

Common Stock 108,698,410 ms.


MARKET CAP: S2A bilion (liid tip)

.000

ASSEI>/SJlJI./
Lo"",

1788.0

-.
-_.-

Fund:!! Sold

Securities
g::eamirtg

~TennDebt
Shr.Equity

Other
701a1

----.

65.8

LWIIUTIES($IIII1

~=;omM8d

2081 121J11D2
2329.6
24881

-.

02.0
71>4.6
1036.7
30.5

1653.8

131.1

.-

144.8
878.1
1359.1
80.7
2480.7

-308.1

--

204.3
1941
1553.1

2-42.7

..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..

..

..
..
..
..
.-

..
..
..
_.

..

..
..

..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..

1" 1"

-- -

..

..

..

..
..

..
..
..

..
...
..
..
..
..

-,.: ::,-

..
..
..

..

..
..
-.
..
..
..
.-

..

32.9
3O.B
78.1

<O.B
351
98.6

..

tal

51.5"

7.64%
481.4
674.5
52.3%

93.5%

951%

15.9%

14.6%

9.12"
239.'

492.1

1.7%
Il9%

"

97%

56.6

.. .....,

Put

.-

..

..

7.72'
704.6
55.9%
96."%
13.8\
'1'

- . SlUggish economic

....a.,.'.

-- - .....
---ea.,
.....

Tbis."""

141%

.5%
97%

1.5%

"""

450
'58
200
HI

lBO"

"'"

f7110

"-'"
9'0%
fto%
HIF
HIF

150

ill.

~::':(lnIl1
!to Hot 1'1081
HI Inccne Tu RdI
R..... on TabI ASIIII

U'"
... LonaT...

(lhlIIl

f.25 Sitr.
57-", Sin. Eq.to Tatli AsuII
N.O% loInI to Tot AaItI
Rnn 011 SIr. E
MlF RIItlinM tD ten Eq
MDIY"d.tlI .... PraI

,,""
'm

wm

11'"
'25Il

>1'"

'15%
11.51

1.0%

""

about 30% of the dlvidend payout, versus


our previous estimate of 20% in February.
As such. the quality of
Is deter!orating. but share net silo d bounce
back in ZOO4. There is 8 reduced supply
of IIA::d1ty for mlddle-rnarket
Ollmpanles.
and
led is In a good position to take advantage
of this trend. As the C<Jmpany
realizes gains In its CMBS portfolio, It <:an
redeploy this capital Into higher-yIelding
mezzanine debt and equity securities.
Allied ought to generate strong shareearnings advances over the horizon to
2006-2008. Once the economy undergoes
a sustained rebound, both the I:.rtfoUos
asset quality and valuation will
e1y Improve. Too. loan demand would suengthen, and the company could obl.aJn higher
yields on Its investments .
These shares are ranked to undel1Jer"market, due to
fonn the year-abead
poor price and earnings trends. Nonethe
less. the stock should appeal to incomeoriented investors because of Its lUgh dlvidend yield and the prospects for increases
in the payout, assuming income levels rise
out to 2006-2008 .
Joseph Spall/at
May 30. z003

earnI:.'fc

wtiJlIIlI ~

.. ~

_. _~........

.
-

188
10.0
480
H'

portfoio: privRt fnlnee,


7~;
a:wrmen:iIIl8ill
esta'e, 3D% (12m). Acqui'ed SunSolRe.
9101.
...... about 100ernptJyM&
(12102). 0IIian & dndorl
own 6.9% d
met
Prmy}. Chamln
CEO:WNn w.1bl. I~:
MlIIYllllnd. Adtftss: 1918 PennsyWanil Avenue. NW Wash~,
D.C. 2006-3434. Ta: 202-331-1112. Web.: ..... ~lI.l.aII"ll.

CornP~
F.... raI &bwngtll;
S1oct's rice &tablllJ
PrlcliGrowth~
ami ... Pr-dlctablllt1
i5 ~

'" "'_",(Ini8)
PrW."
... ~ ""

not subjecl: 10 cmpcI'ftI tIUOOn.

_ked ~

(A) DiU18:1~I
per shn.. IncUdes net dlll!l ntiJuly. (IS) Next divQend nII!eting riirulized R UIl'8iillIh:l pans: 'B8. 45;; '99, JU~. Goes ex nid ......1'Ill DivDend ~
46, '00, 41. "01, 23. Ouiwbn 1M)' not ILm dBIeE .. " MadI, JUI'I8. Sept., o.:.lII()lWidend
to taeaI due to rounding. N8:d eamings rer:ut ,d'hlSlliheiit plan ~labll.
(C) In mliDlIs.
ID 21111 ~
lile ~~
re5eMII. faclllli IIIIIcM ~ ~
'"" _.,...
10 be .........
THr PlBJSI-I:R IS NOTRE
r OR ANYERRORS OR a.SSKINS HREI\I.
if, '*iI:t.f'. ~
1II
..,IIe~DdIlcIlLInIIId.Ib'Id.~itI"'''''''''''CII'''balll''IIr~.IiIIlIIlIiIgIllJIIMllCI*tr_

7941
1553.1
55~'
B9""

55.2'
94.7%
14.81

BUSINESS: A.- CapIaI CellI, is the natQn',lIrgest business develDpment campany. It i1Yesls prtMriy i'I middiHnarklll:
prWlIte
fllTlS, af*ing Il:Jr9'tlm1 ~
Cllpitat nw.ny ttmugh 1TMllurri'Je debt .nd .. it)' fNIIC2Ig. If also pa'ii:iPll'lBs in tIJe .... 1
estiItII Cllpil:l IIiIrkBts II an IrJ\I8Sb" i'I corm8Ci.Il
rmrt;.geAIBd is reg u8WI inY8*nenI: con..-ny thoIt ill

Est'CI "00-'02.

."

8.17"

816.1

92'

2794.3

ST.5
54.6
228.3

B.16'

1036.1 1359.1

.....

45.0
200.7

41.5
143.1

growth is taking
its toll on Allied Capital. (Note: Share
ANNUAL RATES
Pat
net varies substantially from quarter to
InnL
IVn.
quarter due to net realized and unrealized
L....
---- -- P.'" gains or IDS~. Therefore. quarterly com--.~~
1l.5"
BookVllhJe
.- . 7.5" parlsons may not be meanIngful.) In the
..
10ia1 Ass8ts
- - 8.5" March period. loans and debt securities
greater than 90 days past due were a falrF
co!LOAIISLd.k
Iy hefty $100 m1I1Ion. or 4.2% of the total
_.,.31 Jln.30
itJl.j
Dec.31 Y.r
portfolio. Nonetheless. $36 million of that
1365
1418 1638
1788
amount is secured by commerdal real
ZOO, 1887 2001 217~ 2330
estate. Also, uneven eoonomtc growth led
lII02
2344
2488
22S4 2381
to lower valuations in the investment portz:m BOO 2&GlI 211iD
lD03
rouo. However. AlUed sold $244 million of
211/(1
MIiD
commercial mortgage-backed
securities
w.lGS PERSliAllEA
Full
Co!(CMBS) fur a $25 million realized gain. to
..... .31 Jun.30 SID . Dec.31 Y.50
.48
.51
.45
1.91 shore up earnings .
will Ukely grow 5% in
ZOO,
.51
.63
.~2 2.16 'The dividend
.60
.44
.50
2.20 2003. 1b.ls is in contrast to management's
.55
.71
goal of 10% annual growth In
.5$
.1iD
.9
f.1ID long-term
lD03
.18
.81
.If
.12
14C1 the payout. (The company's payout ratio is
.58
usually at least 90% In any given year.)
QUARTBILY DMlEJIIS PAIl"
F"
"ar.31 JIln.30 S.1130 Dee.3t Y.... Moreover, we expect difficult economic
condidons to result in a share-net decline
.40
.40
1.60
1111
.40
.40
of nearly 20%. In particular.
A1l1ed's In.46 .45
1.82
.45
.45
.51
51
2.01 vestments in IT, telecom, and business
z001
.~9
.10
We expect
.56 .55
2.20 semces will probably struggle.
.53
.55
the company's capital gains to account for
lD03
.60
57

--

l.oiIn Lass RBSN.

67."

po'' '

Urd.

P-1.

0lkI1

wni:r.
P

I '.

: II:

B*
70

50
75

I I

AMERON INT'L CORP.I NYSEAMN


I

SAFI1Y
TECHNICAl.

.so

BETA

High:
LD'W:

2 ...... "..
3 ... ,m,..

lHEUJIESS

~r:e.

MIIleI)

2001-48 PRWEcro.~.
PriA
7.

....

GaIn

Ann'I1Ni
Reillm

';:

"'

:1!
.,

(i1~12."

LMr
4.5
+30%
Insider Decisions

.....,.
.... ...'",.,
I==-

ASOIiIDJF

o
o
o

....

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

InstitutiON I D.cl.ions

51'2

....,

102.3

25

1987 1988 1989

I""

J,

~ ",'

"

.......
.....

P"""".

5'"
1990

1991 1992

i
56.33
3.94
.94
.60
1.89
1. 86

...

j,\"ll..l
AoseIs

IQalivables
'_(FIFO)

00te,

Do"""

0Ih0r
CurnlntLiab.

11.3

136.0
92.5
25.9
265.7
".7
12.7
"8
1092

ANNUALRATES Pal
1.YI"L
" ....
(po .. ,
5_
1.S%
"CaIl_'
6.0%
Ei!lnWlgs
11.5%

26.3

n.1

35.0
232

31.8
18.7

24.0
17.3

40.0
18.8

20.3
15.8

18.4
138.5
91.4
26.8
272..

10.4
131.3
88.0
23.2
252.9
".3

.3

47.7
.3

''''

111.1

103.7
Put

,Yn.
2.0"
1.5"
11.5%

55.1

.....

Est'd'lO-'02

..... ..,,21

,...
.....

r.,

120.1

,...

"

CI 21113. 'aUt lile ~~

lllEPUrl.JStRlSMlt
R
III. "'f be ...~"CI'~i1

2.3%

37.3
24.6

21.21

, _. -

Target Pric. Range


200ti

18.4
1.D9
3.11

,,'

II
1994 1995 1~6
53.06
3.16
1.15
.60
1.90
15M
7."
16.
1.07

60.8<
3.60
1.58
.60
294
11.01
7.1
11.0
.7,
3.11

62.35
'.00
1.94
.60
3.17
18.11
7JIT
10.1
.63
3J~

fldlJll

.,

..... ------- -- ....

.--I. -- .,I

'

.'

237
.60
3.10
19.10
'.01
11.1
.67
23~

5.06
257
.8<
1.46
12.31
1.!lII
7.'

,.~ ..
'.llli

132
.69

3.1~

5.52
3.11
.60

5.91
3.'9
.60
1.8<
16.8<
7."
9.0
.'9
21l'l

5.99
3."
.60
H9
26.31
7.15
8.3

2n
23.59
7.73
5.9
.38
3~~

."

21~

..
32

III
17.
.11
Ul

,...

U.
t..
.10
115
317.

...
....
:1:,'OII

-...

""

"---..

""
,,,. ""'"
107.1
5". '"

1 ".

'J1
1.98
.60
'.06
20.1.

""
'00
.0
54

10

.1.4

12.9

28.'

1997 1998 191192000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ~ I'ALIE tM 1'lJII. IIC.
7175 W.,.1h A
66.60 66.50 66.17 71.19 11.19 66.36 71.10

'.50

2008

2<

'" TOt RTtJAtf J.lD3

\-'.11'

'Cuh Row" porlll


EniIII pi!' III
Dir'd.DIcI'ct,... c
Cap' IipOJJdOtIpor III
B........
porlll
GrIllOI' 5111 0U1If1i u
AWl!Annl PIE ROo
_P/ERI1lo
AYII Ani' Div'cI Y".-Id

----

~
117.
7."
U

...

........
11.

fU
J5
1.'"

11.

.aU
496.9 533.5 552.1 505.1 550.1
7.711 8.51
91'l
9.0% 8.0"
8.8~
16.1
16.
18.7
18.1
19.0
18.0
125
15.
16.1
2'-7
19.'
11.'
25.11
35.8\ 38.8\ 38.1l'l 320~ 320~
2.6\
3.11
3.6\
29~
3.9~
4.5'4
114.4 l11J
154.0 '46.9
121.6 135.7
91.6 112.6 140.9 165.3 135.2 140.1
134.6 144.8 153.0 1672
178.1 182..
75~
8.1'4
72~
8.6'4
9.51
'.711
IJI
10.61 127~
9.71 1.2.1>1 13.5\
.5\
1.1'4
92~
10.7'4
9.'"
6-"
31~
11~
33~
'1~
BUSIIIESS: An.-on IriI!mallOnill ee.p. is a multillltional manufiICtlllW rl Pl'l*etMi COiIII\9I for the pdDIBurn, mama, and industrial
mi1lb!t:s; the leader iI conaete and .. I pf;J8 I.-:l b
wahII1.....
proj8cts n lhq ..esEm UnilBd SIiIII:-. Aho ma ....
conD\ld:ion produdl and Iighlng poiI!IlI. Owns 50% of TAMCO,
.co", of Bondslnnd, lid.; 40% at Oa-......n..un, ltd.; 30% rl

_(WJA
539.5
575
10.[)lJii 10.1~ 18.'"
11.~
17.'"
18.6
DopocIob (1niB)
18.6
11.0
25.8
18.1
'l1.7
3l.
".0
u.", IIlCCIHTuRdi
1B.1~ JOn 33.'"
35.'"
5.0'4
.ft
5.'"
'2lI
__ I Cap' (ln1D)
149.2
ISO
1565
110
200
1..
137.2 l02J
110
1"
~~~(InII)
194.1 211.8
U5
170
m
9.1'4
9.6'4
10.0% RnmanTIIlIIC-v1
I.'"
1m R_ .. SIr. E_
fD.n
13.6~ 1321 12.'"
10.9'4
,-'"
RmIMd 10Can Eq
11.2"
18%
AI DlY'd. to Nd Prof
1'~
1"'
""-on Saudi Arabia. ptRflaBl Croda ConIgs, -4198. "02 depr.
hIE: 4.9%. HIls about 2,800 .. pII., 1,170 slwtlln 011'1. & d ...
own 1.3% rl tIodl:; Putnam InY85trn8n1s, 10.5%; T. Rowe PricII,
9.5% (3103 Proxy). Channan, PI'-. & CEO: .lImBs S. M.-n. Inc.:
0eInare.. Address: 245 South Los RDb181Avenue, Pasadena. CBI'am. 91101-2894. let. 626-683-4000. InI8rnet www.-rtWDru:orn .

Global demand and world events are


driving many of Ameron's businesses.
Sales and opera~
income for the
FU:,;'flass-comJ:::ue
pe Group were up
sh
y In the seal /lrst half (ended M:t31st), I.hanks to strong marine and 0 shore oil and gas marl<.elS In Asia. Capital
spending by the oU majors has remained
weak. but high energy
should favor
increased investment.
we think this
unit is well positioned to capture some of
the business for restoring Iraq's oU fields.
Ameron is also a partidpant in Joint ventures In Saudi Arabia, KuwaJt. and Egypt
that may also Win other infrastructure
rebuilding contracts, though equity income
is expected to be lower in the second half
of 2003 due to tough comparisons. The
Performance Coa~
& Flolshlngs Group
was hindered by de erred maintenance on
na~ vessels (and sluggish industrlaJ markets, but that business should Improve
nicely as the navy plays catch-up. Segment
sales and earn1ng5 did improve. however,
bolstered. by stronger forei~ncies
.
The outlook for the
tnJcture
Products Group continues to improve
. . . Hous.lng markets remain very robust

spurred by low interest

053.'

551.4

,..

x.::::es

__

is 1IIll""

j t"...

IrmII _

bIitwd

Wille niItR ..

is prOlIidetI

ORNITRROIlSOIlCUSSKlNSH[RElli.
-=i5lhtyb~5_.Ial=_daI,n.fIII"',
priMd. ___
.........
..
. II'
..tilIIc:Irai:.

20.'

...""'",.....
.." ........
Sh,. ,1_

..'"

..'"
"" "'"

,,~

'"

If'"t'''''')'

r-.ed.

2007

'II"

"

"

.'"

rates. Ameron
sells lighting and tralDc pales nationwide,
and that business is doing well. But its
construction supply business is focused on
Hawaii. and there indicators are positive.
In fact, the state's prtvate-buUding authorizatlons ~eted.
95%, year to year, in
the first
endar quarter.
.. but bidding activity has slowed for
water transmission projects (Z7%of ftscal 2002 sales and 42% of operating Incorne). Lower May-period sales and profits
reflected project timing and a lowermargin product mIx. There's been a slowdown in water-piping demand in the westem U.S. Longer-term prospects, however,
are positive. based on Ameron's dominant
h:ltlon in that water-hungry market.
ese timely shares also offer decent
appreciation
potential to 2006-2008.
The recently increased dividend displays
management's confidence in long-term
ean1lngs and cash-flow generatlon. Share
IIquldlty has Improved somewhat following
the Z-ror~I split In May. And the company's business and global diversification
strate~ is another plus .
Craig irois
July JJ. 2003

3.""
4.5"
3.5"
..
Dividends
- - 5.""
Book V ...
3.0%
7.0%
9.5"
FIocaJ
F.I
llUARTBlLTSAW
(I
~
Y.,
lilly 31 AIIg.31
JI) F''''''
121.0 140.2 133.1 158.0 550.1
551.0
2101
121.6 1".1
1.U
1'1.3
138.1 138.8 101.9 539.5
2GG3 1~.8
101.8 II1l
f41.1
m
f311
1511
fSS
BII
ISS
F.,
EARNINGS PER SHARE A
Y..,
F_
Fob21 ., 3' Aug.31 N.. .3lI Y..,
3.12
.12
.18
1.01
1.21
2101
.89
1.30
3.45
.21
1.05
3.09
.22
.91
1.05
1.27
2GG3
.91
171
.27
f.18
f.3/J
.a us 1.25 U. 4."
QUARTERLY
DrroENDS PAD C
e ...
Full
lIar.!1 Jun.30 Sep.3D Dec.31 Y..,
filii
.18
.18
.5O
.18
.18
.16
.16
.5O
.18
.16
.60
.18
.18
.16
.18
2111'
.5O
.18
.16
.16
.18
2GG3
.20
.1'
(A' .-,..
........
308t 01"'.....
81. "I; '88, ~): '91s!,5j\
(e) 0_
._,~ pam <no
)'8IJ. (B) BII8d on IMlI'lIg8 shs. out. tIrotJgh
(1 ~ '93, ($4.08); '94, (Z): '98, ; '99, February. May, August, and NcMlmbllr.
1996, hn diluil:l. Nut 8lWn1igs I8port due
9I!; '00, 9. 2001 and 2002 quarln donl sam (D. In mliDns.
Iat8 S8pt8rnblB'. EJdudes nst nonNJaaTilg
due tb rounling .ndIor chang& II lhares out

-._1-...
--

YlD

39.0

,IT I

_~

.. '-

3."
.11.1
B>~
6-"
1..
16.'
(LT int9rest earned: 8.51; kltal merest
9.0
72
(3ll~ of CA,,)
aMng8: 8.4:X)
12.9~ 31.51
Lea .. , UncapiblliDd Annual rentals $4.1 nil
P.nslon AUlIIs-11m:-S113.1 mil.
1l~
1.6'
0tI1ig. $158.1 mi'.
66.0 101.0
89.6
91.'
PM Stock None
1155 12U
62~
5.8'4
Cammon Stock 7,919,024 shs..
6.21
721
IlARKET CAP: $275 ilUlNon (Small Cap)
2.0~
32~
CURRENT POSITION 2001
2002 5131103
OK
56~

CulT8nt Assets
I\cds PIIy.tJ1e

7.n

,II.",,,

'''10'

........-

56.11
45.56 56.87 59.00 61.00
3.19
151
294
351
3.40
.93
1.01
1.42
W
1.51
.60
.62
.60
.52
.60
121
. 1
3AS
27'
21.
3."
16.11 1657 17.53 18.66 18.81 18.B6
m 7.98 7.50 7.56 7.63 1."
11.6
135
102
1.
11.7
145
.90
.97
.n 1.DB 120 1.07
3.9'4
29~
3.1~
29~
3.""
3. "
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as elf 5131103
TotalDebl $108.2 mil. Due In 5 Yrs Sn.5miL
lT Dlibl $99.9 mi.
LT Interut $5.8 mil.

CA

19.5
14.8

~,eSSICIt

31.64
2.35
1.21

21.8
14~

IIlV'D

Ibdi .. : 11.1

ti'_

26
2'

11l

"30

19.4
15.4

LEGENDS
6.5 I "'eIVi r.... p 51
. . R~
Prte Snrigll
2__ -' ~
W3

1 ....."...

(1.oo

18~
14.5

9 5(11ii1ll1:91) RElATh'E
PfRAOO. 0 56

I~35.041~oo

wIhauI ~

:1aU1d.
P-t

Sll'fbCl'prlIlb::L

......

1,:

F........ ........
SlDck's nc. Stabllty
Pr1clIGrowth ~

B+
80
. 35

as

Eaminga p~ity
I

I',

: II,

II'

APPUED IND. TECH. NYSEAIT

IRECENT
IP~CE

11pf
g
1931
2.5%/1
IIRATIO 19 7(Tniin
..di." ,15A)
I~O RElATIVE
PfRATIO. 125 IlIV'D
lID

19.B

12.2

22.5
16.0

34.4
18.3

29.3

19.1

12.0

11.1

21.0
14.3

20.7
15.6

19.5
15.4

21.3
14.7

I'l".
I
111",'

..

, ... 1"

0
""

..

II

....... - -

.-' -

...-r.r'

26.18
.74
.32
.20
.39
6.69
18.7
~
1.49
2.8%

31.19 31.93
1.33 1.63
.83
1.09
22
.25
.39
121
7.41
8.12
17.40 ,.
10.6 10.4
.88
.19
2.5'
2.2,.

~c:e=

40.66 5121 51.16 50.49 55.14 60.16


1.42
.97
.9B
1.32
1.55 t.n
.90
IT
.19
.55
.15
.96
18
.28
.28
28
.28
.31
US
L..
12S
.B3
.96
.86
8.45 8.45
8.06 8.19 8.86 9.043
16.
15.
15.98 1 .47 ,.
17..53
lLll
31_.~ 49.9
1U
11.1 14.3
.96
1.99
3.03 1.l111 1.12
.96
2.4'
3.4%
3.11 2.2,
22%

3.'"

CURRBn'POSmoN 2001

il'1l.l

I~

(UFO)

75.9

1~:~
166.1
11.0
381.1
76.3

1~:~
171.5
10.4
384.5
19.8

__

__

__

191.6
10.0

Other

406.5

Cumml: ASI8ts
N:d:J Pap.bIe
Debt Due

=nt

2N2 !131m

,J:i:g

5ZI

371

sa

61.&1 62..31 69.48 rU5


79.33 82.17 75.33 7i1S '1.45
2.09
2.18
2.11
1.99 2.61
2.57
1.68 1.75
z,m
lIT
1.46
1.38
.83
1.50
1.41
.19
.11
U.
.36
.41
.41
.48
.48
.48
.48
.41
.M
12J
1.16
J.5Il
.83
.48
.60
.52
.1$
.1$
10.20 11.15 13.n 13.13 15.11 15.66 15.53 15.75 '1.55
1.
21.47 21.39 19.B1 19.6.f 19.20 1U5
fl50
13.6
13.1
19.4
16.4 10.9
12.6 24.2 Ibll:ffo-.85
.II
1.01
!l3
.71
.65 129
~
2.1,. 2.1% 1.8"
3.2% 2.9% 2.7%
2.61
-

281

ZK

sa

341

321

BUSliESS: AppliBd lndusnl Technologies is disbibub' d iIdumal products, whi:h ilcUde be;ri)gI, poww transmiasM canpl)neIIIs, fkJil ptMII' anponents. __ mdton pnductI, and gen... end Ipmally ~1rtBna1lCl!l iErns. ThI company ptft:hases
fn:m
2,500 ctmPilln", and sets to variItty rllKlustrias. A.1so
proyides IBchni::alsuppart 1eIYic:as. OpeIiIEs 453 servi:e ev:ntrn,

ow.

Applied Industrial Thchnologies' bottom line should continue to iInprove


thro~h
fiscal Z004 (ends June 30th.
~::u-u-~) 'I~~", 5~", -:
2004). hare earnings grew 64%. year over
"CashFlow"
7.5'" 3.0% 8.5"
year, in flsca12003's third quarter on gross
8.0% 1~=
margin improvement.
Although
pricing
Bcok VidJ.
6..5%
805'"
4.5"
pressure continues to hold margins below
!-;;=cr--=====.,,-=:--r

::," historical levels. the difficult economy has


Fiscal
prompted sizable rebate programs from
f-.:~-f.i~:"';"""-T,;iT--T,irr+'"'Y.m1' many of AIrs industrial-products sup2000 380.7 372.6 413.2 405.2 1571. pileI'S. Too, the company has recently had
2001 420.9 405.5 408.9 390.6 1625. greater success at recouping freJgIlt costs
2D02 368.0 347.6 361.5 369.5 1446. from a.JStomer.; and has shown more dis~.o
dpllne In terms of wall<lng away from lowFIKaI
EARNlNGSPERSHAR!....
Fill marglned deals. However. with vendors
Sep.JODec.311Iu.31 Jun.3DFI&a.Istarting to curtail rebates as. the market
1-{i~-F"iii:"":""i<'--=iir"::':~+'iiY-"':rl slowly recovers. year-over-year margin Im2100 .28 .30 .40 .53 F1.50 provement will be less pronounced going
2D01 .36
.37
.35 .33 1.41 rorv.rard. Pension and insurance
costs
2102 .25
.15
.14 .22
.76 should also continue their steady climb.
Stili. margins should remain above 2002
CaI- QUARTERLTDNI)EJI)SPAI)c
levels, and we are increasing our earnings
FilII estimate fo[' the current quaner by $0.03 a
......... .31 Jun.31 SIIp.30Dtc.31 Y.., share, to $0.28 per. and we look for shareI.
.12 .12 .12 .12
.48 net growth of 35%-40% In fiscal 2004.
2000 .12 .12 .12 .12
A8 Revenue
growth
reJDains
subdued.
2DDI .12 .12 .12 .12
.48 Th
.
tal
hlch
2DD2
.12 .12
.12
.12
.48
e company s two ca
ogs. w
were
2003 .12
updated in Febnuuy.
have been a bright
Liab.

ANNUALRAlES Past

~~

Put

&rd "'12

'g]~

1;1 Se::-=r:~r:Ju~JO

=:

~.7 :.2 ~iT::

1:

=: :~ :~ ~ ~ ,~

"1

F.-:aI)'8ll' ends June 30th.


I'l!port due..-ty Aug. (C) N8xI dimend 1IIlIIII
B PrWniIryWIliJgs through 91, diuB:l tf&e. IIg rnd-Ju!y. Next u d_lTliI-May. Dividends
after. ExctJdes nonrecuriIg IBns: '88. 2~; '90. pad.bclJt 30Ih d Feb ......
Aug . Nov'.
('32); 1J2., (66); "D2. (63j~Next 8InilgS
(Dlln mlions, ItlIpsted b'sIJcll: spils.
YaW UIe ~
..
facblll .....
is ...
1aII ~
~
to
1lI PUBl..ISHOl: IS III)T R[~lOR
N [RRORS OR IMSSlONS~.
Tns ~
rI. ~ 1Ie ......
1t'SI:IM. ib'1Id II" t~
priaI.....
aIllIl -..1ISId
III gnqliI) 11" .....

Cl2lIl1.

AI~~.ill.,

y.

34"

631

All Walg

1RIProf

zn;

spot in an otherwise gloomy market. AlthoURh this dl.annel represents less than
rnpid
growth in the past year
carries a higher margin than traditional
operations.
Nevertheless. total revenue may well grow
at only a low slngle-diglt rate for the next
several quarten whUe customers await
marked improvement in industrial spendIng. 11le economy ought to be on sounder
footing in calendar 2004.
Acquis:idons
are
highly likely.. The
company has over $250 million in 'WOrking
capital. inclUding $24 million In cash. to
bid ror smalle[' distributors
In markets
where It CUIT'ently has a minimal presenc:e.
Such pun:hases should put the cmnpany in
a good position for an economic uptwn.
Share repurchases are another probable
use for cash thJs year.
These neutrally
ranked shares
bold
below-average potential
for capita)
gains
to
ZOO6-Z008. Despite
the
likelihood of a solld earning5 recovery over
the next 3 to 5 yeaB. we expect the priceearrdngs mu1t:Jple to come down quJte a bit
tha
over
t span.
Robert E. Du BofT
May Z. 2003
3% 01 total sales. it has~rlenced

be,... ... _. _ wltDlI"'"


&...,..~
......~ _~,.lIdlId.
fIR'IidelII

CIflllctlllli:,..aI:ln...a

Company's Finaltdal !hngth


StDct's Prk:II StUlIly
Prb Growth ~
EMllnp PtdctabllIy

UlIl_

nor

is

'""

1111.40
U/J
UII
..,
1111
2G.00
fUif
11..5
...
U"

9 dQbuti:fl
centen, and 2 calillop in the U.S. and Canada.
Aafd. OynlMl5t (Applied l.i:t.) &'00. 4,400 emph., 8,450 slkhkb.
01'1. & di". awn 10.3% d lXJI'M'I)Il ad:; AFT R8Inment Samgs
Plan, 9.0"-; DmlnsixIaI Fund AdYisl:n, 8.0% (IlI02 proxy). Ctwnn.
.nd CEO: OBVidPugh. Adm".: Olllt ApplBcl PIiIlII. CMveIand, DH.
44115. Tel: 216-426-4000. InhImlIt WfIM.appiedndusRI.com.

(E) IncIudIls iltIngibleS. In 2002: $46.4 millon,


sz.421s!Jln.
(fJ Qu.-t-'Y figlhS do
SIn 10tQ.1 dll8 b
rounding.
.
MJ ....

,,,.

Sllapll'lhA
CuII fbi" ~Ifl
e.ninppw"'''
Dlv'd' Dld'd PII' IIIC
c.plSpndlogpw""
BoalVllutpwlhE
CiRntoa Shl
II
.lvgAnnnlERdo
R*1I.. PIEbID
AYlAnnHlIY'dYIIkI

rI

fIIrI

gr

I '.

B+
as
35
60
II:

I I

1 44
IFPRICE 19.331~Tll24.2(=rtJil) PHATll.

ARCH CHEMICALS NYSEARJ


lWElJIlSS
SAFIT/
TECHN'CAl
8ETl

.!5

3...., ....
3 ....."..
3 ....,Y2MIl

(1.DO. MIIUt)

ZOlI64B .RwEC11ONS

CEHT

RElATiVE

....
....:'':.J 1731:".,

J A ION

ooooooooo~
o 0 0 000

1IW1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

...

"
32

I:i

lI,r I, !..IJI" , "11'1'1" ''''111"

,"
,.

001

,,,II...

.." 10'".... -..


'""""

""""n'

IS of3/Stm
D... in 5 Yrs $2(10.0 mi.
LTDebtS21B.7 mil LT kJtI,rest $18.0 ml.
(IT irtmesI: eam.d: 5.b:; taliIl intnst covenge:

CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Tatal Debt $264.6 mi.

'''''''Cap~

Annl.lil r&miIls $13.1 mil.

Pen,lon Assds-12JU2 $102 mil Oblig. $179 FrilL.


As elf 4I'JlIIZQ03
MARKET CAP: $4251111100n(Small Cap)
CURRNT POSrn:JN
313'103

....

200'

il:'lL

ea ......

4.D

OIhor
CulT8nt AsIiets

79.1

145.6
86.7

"""3'f6.i

340.0

~PaYllbie

..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..

111.3

134.1

85.3

101.6
238.1

38.5

..
..
..

..
..

..

..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
-.

..

_.
"

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
.-

..

"

..

,998 -'2003
2004
"VALIEUlEPIIl.~C.
38.93 '~59 41.48 41.94 ".45 45.10 RIMn'* pII' sh
37.54
2.&1 3.09 3."
3.55 "Cash ~
per III
3.62 3.98 . 24
Ih All
.55
.ID
1.55 1.16
1.7D .re
.10
3.67

..
..

86~8
11.6\

"

43.1

40.0

"
"

..
"
"

..
"

.60

.80

.ill

.ill

2.61

~81

2.02

1.55

21.95 lU.
m8
22lil1
_.
11.j

"

..

342\

.63
3.'\
879.8
12.5\

49J
40.7

19.00

3]\

3.8~

920.8
8.9161.S

939.4

38.0

..

33.S'

82\
'.0\
6.0%

6.7%

'.0"
U\

"

.. %

4'"

85.0

207.5 Arch Chemicals' top line is improving.


Sales rose at a double-digit pace in the
ANNUAl. RATES
.ut
Put &rd"'02 first quarter over a year ago. Half of this
tIT ....
was attributable to the effects of favorable
_.
2..%
Re"" ....
.''Cash Aow"'
currency exchange rates. The remainder of
.- 4.""
..
.Eamilgs
the increase was fueled by expanding
..
..
DiYitends
10'
volwnes,
principally
at
the
Micro..
BooIl: Value
1.5"
electnmlcs
and Industrial
Blocldes
segc... lIUARlBILY Jlmljle~11llJ
ments. And, momentum at these
units
.... .31 Jun. 3D'k
DIe. 31 V_
seems set to continue. Following the
m.l 282.1 206.9 221.5 !M!~ severe downturn in the semiconductor in2OD'I
255.6 284.9 2ll8.5 171.8 920. dustry in 200], Microelectronics' business
2G02
211.1 296.2 241.6 1911.5 939. has been choppy, reflecting
Inventoty
2DD3
236.2
315
250
1.1.1 I ...
builds and corrections at various custom2..
m 110 IIll IOJD ers.
Trends are on the upswing again, but
EARHNiS PER SHARE A
CoIFull
semiconductor invenwry levels seem relaM".SI J,n.311-sn;:30 Doc.I' Y., ttvely lean, auguring well for results in the
.51
.91
21
.01
1.70 bad< half of 2003. Sales
of industrial
2011
.60
d.30
d.63
.06 bJoddes are benefiting from environmental
.4'
2DD2
.115
.59
.06 d.17
.55
regulations that prohibit sales of a compe.11
.70
.1.
d.ll
.-J
.12
.13
.JO tttive product used in marine paint.
.12 d..l
Cutting costs is a priority. The goal is
c... QUARTBU.VDNmBIISPAlJc.
to reduce operating expenses by $10 miI ,.31 Jun.30 StD.3D Dtc.31 Y.., lion in 2003. Management hopes to ac..
1191
.20
.20 111
.60 compllsh this by lowering advertising ex111
.20
20 .20
.60 penses and ~ng
better prices on cheml111
.20
20 111
.60 ca1s that it
201'
out production on. After
2G02
.20
20 .20
.60 switching to a direct distribution strategy
~
2DD3
.20

"_""'I

.. ..

_. "

IL""

_.

-.....
-.....
-

...

.......

55.0'J.

2\
'41.7
265.1

,...

10.n

5L.

>6.7

12.S
33.91
U\
101.9
220.'
3.7%

NMF
NMF

NMF
NMF

'lO

F,.

o 2(Ill, 'MIe lM ~
lHEI'UBUSlf:RISNJTR[
npqdI:aIL mdd

rBeI'f'd. facul .-ria II IIIIllIiIIed rr- DfteII bdieIlfII IIIbe fIIIiI* IfId i5 fI1IWided .......
~IIf'(EakORSORtuSSIONSHl.REIN.ll'6~i5sh1y"!IIbEriber'I~nml
, .....
illllJ JId!II. --.ir:: III llIB ....... IISeIIb gtrBIIiI} .. ~
III **ani:: ....

.m ..lr..-d

''''

ZZ5

u...

8.............

3.8\

4U~
(20

I~
.8D
2.50

115.

OIWIIICIIIShl 011111 IIIJ

Avg Aln' PIE Rllio


R_PIERdo
Awg Ann' Ov'd YiIIcI

_.i1.....

u",
lto
.10

(Oll

"'"
118%
.u 0_("'111 ....
zo..
,$nil)
R......

1D.",

'....,)

Nd ""'It

ZZ5

'" '"

SOll
S",
HIE

l.llfI1lT"" ....

-'"

(lodI1)

$I".

S", RIIum
lOll RiIUn

"'"

TDlII tap'l
on Stv. Elluitv

011

Rmined to Con Eq
AI DiY'n tD HIi Prof'

1135

:15..
37.0ll

'-'"
'35

"'"""

.. %

'-'"

("'

for its pool chemicals unit last year, efforts


are now under way to lower shipping expenses. Some of these c;tentlal savings
are 1U<e11. to be offset
hlgher energy
casts, at east for this year, however.
Plans to deleverage
might have to
walt until there is a more substantial
earnings recovery. Gash flow in excess
of dJvldend
payments
and
spending
needs would be applied. to ebt reduction..
With the payout ratio currently around
]00%, exces5 cash flow i5 limIted. however.
Investors should also note that Arch has
about $40 million In off-balance sheet
recelvables!lnanclng
through
a
securitization program.
This stock is best-suited for incomeoriented. investors. Although
the <!IvIdend has not been covered by earnJngs,
the payment seems relatively safe considertng that capital spending needs are not
great and that underlying
business
trends
are improving. TIle stock's high PIE multtwhich Is supported
by the dJvldend,
Is
lkely to mntract as earnings expand. The
stock Is already
trading
within our 3 to 5
year target range.
Noah Goldner
June 20. 2003
taB July. Goes ell:' Compuy. FlrraltCilrl~
o

CBJ:itaJ.

Cle,

(AI ~
n baed m~
i1bmI- hg as one 8fIWy.
{CI H8rl diri:Iend me&!itg
b:ln thmugh 1998, then diUed. AI tthw bn- (81 N&rI eIfJIlngs I8pat due WI..
~Iy. Ex- mil-Aug. Apprm. divDend pa,ment da'-s are:
CII!II
data is eo ~mTlII
~99lI.1Id
cIlIdeI nomItUIWIg Ioues: "01, $0.14; "02, -If NBCh, June, Sephmber, and Detanber.
iISSIIl& ttIm 0IiI and Arch had
~
$0.37.
(D) In miklns.
If ..,,,

'(10

c.pUp,.,lini p.".

n.Oll 37.0% Inc:onIITu IbII


... % ... % NotPlaltM.....
1'" W_. Cop' linN)

381.S 320.0
1.7%
J\

u.

::~-

'.1\

1.8

.8D Dh"d. DKfd per III C

.10
1.75

21>0

43\
11.7%
55.7

Enins.,.

' '.15

1U3

941.2

34.0"
4.6%
4.6\
4.0"
141.1
168J In_3
.. 16.8 247.6
S04.S 451.8 419.8

19\
1.'\
79.

17AS

22.10 22.2D 22,"


11.0
NlIF
38.
.n Nil' ~11

....

2.

23'5.l

23.8

,,%
'DUll
BUS
..
ES$:
Arch
Chemi::ills
is
II
specirally
ctIlImicals
manufad:
....
equals
2.04"
of
2002
rewtnlMlS.
Has
llbout
3,200
e~.
0l'.7
118.5 The principal busllesses WIwhich the ~ny
~
... : ni- fD!ll'S & dilIctI:n own 3.6" or aJl'TYnDn sieck: T. Rowe PrD Asso156.7 ~
ctMmcall, WIItBr dIernicats, IInd perfallnlllC8 chInic8III. 12.1"; AIR Carp. 1D.8"'; SyndBr caplal, 8.2'Ao(3103
94.D
olIlnKt, the c:DnJ;)anyaBe Proxy). Chaiman & CEO: MidIa&ICa"",beI. 11ICtlIpCntm:Del.
318.9 ails. k1addllon to .. I1Ingeor ~
ritI c:t.ni::alll'llnllg8lTBlt
won. AddMss: 501 MerrIt SIMM, Norwalt, CT 06B51. Teillpllonl!l:
137.6 provDes ssni::onducb'tnilnufilcturBn
.m:es, including i1ventDry tnilnagwnent .1Id dAtKJ1ion. R&D 2D3-229-Z900.lnl8mlIt WWW..mct.nats.cm1.

122
8S.5

162.6
131.1

RecetvilbI_
,_
(AVOCo1J

A.l
12.0

41.6

..

Cammo. Sbxll22,457,781Ihs.

.""

1~.

.
..
..

Lua ... UncapttaliDtd:

..

.. TOt ROURII !WI

III

:,;

s.2

..
.. .....
.~.
,~.

...

1 ~~

4DlIll

"
"
'D
8
16

17325 17302
Arch Ch8micals, If1COlJlllrated
was fDrmed 1993 '994 '995 '996 '997
.,
..
..
..
..
on February 8, 1999 ~a a spin-df 01 Olin's
.,
..
..
..
..
specially chomcials business. Hold... of
..
..
..
..
..
Olin comfTlln sDck as of February 1. 1999
.. .. .. .. ..
received one Arch Chemica~ common
..
..
..
..
..
sharo for overy two shares of Olin common
..
..
..
..
.stod< held in a tax~... transaction. Appraxi..
..
..
.. .
mately 22,960,000 shares were distnbuted
..
..
..
..
as a resun of the spin-on. Chase Manhattan
..
..
.. ..
Bank seMld as Iho undorwritor for Ihe
..
..
..
..
transaction.
"

--'

"

------ ....
._ .... ... -

:.~
".

DKialonl

....
Duo
01h0r
CurnllrtlJab.

Ta~1 Price Range


20
2007 2008

0 J F ~~

"",.

InsUtuUoM.

2.1.8
15.1

25.7
15.7

cc;, ':a.-.s r~uiDn

5%

'nsid., Daclskma

24.7
,7A

_
Ul-cftlr"-p!h
- ReAIIie PIEr S-1IIgII

..... -2"

{+5~t
(~%

222
15.6

13.9

4.1%

LEGENDS

Ann'! TaIII :11

,.2D
t"l ""'"

25.'

High:
Low'

D1V'D
lID

1lIJ"""

....-s

II ~

-.n.tu..

ki'Jd.

...a ..ptIIIuI:1

Stock's Prica Stabiity


Prict Growth ~
Earnl. P.... dUlltJ
I

,',

70
NMF
15

:11:

11-,

BECTON, D'SON. NYSE-BDX

.60
2.70

.86

3.04
315.55
19.0 1.5
121
1.20
1.3~ U~

1.D3
3.50
13.6
1.03
1."

.88
3.90
1.13
13.'
1.00
1./%

.70
4.32
1
14.9
.95
1.~

1.0%

.61
5.05
3.84
13.6
.82
1.1%

.62
.44
US
5.07
!l1 281.11
1.8
12.9
.82
.85
1.9~ 1.9~

.48
S.16
15.0
1.00
15~

.59
.70
5.15
5.46
7
244.11
18.8 1,.7
1.16
1.104
12~
1.1~

.73
1.24
1.411
6.31
6.87 7M
7.
250.80 253.50
25.6 2'.'
185
1.33
1.39
1.20
-"
1.0\
12~

1.02
1.1'
1.f.
9.59 11.55 1115
.~ 255.
19.1 ~~
__
1.01
1.1~
-

1.43
8.83
20.9
1.07
1.1\

:u.

CIpUp.ndinlpll'~
Boak'Mllpwlh D
QIIRlOll
iii
A'ilAnn .. "' .....
RIIItiYIPlERdo
A.gAnn11l1(dY"1IId

CAPrrALSTRUCTURE .. ot3l31~J
Total Debt $1291.5mil. DIM~ 5 YI'Ii$550.0 mil.
LT Debt S806.3 mil.
LTInteIat $46.0m.l.
(Ll iltenlst earned: 16.1x; 'lDta1inten!sI

1.25

...

If.75

W.

U.
t.OlI

..".

2465.4 2559.5 2712.5 2769.8 2810.5 3116.9 3418.4 3618.3 37!l4.3 4033.1
4450
4100 s.Ies(W) A
SN8
19.8% 21.B% 22.3% 22.8,. 24.01 25.'"
25.0% 2Z..21.
25.3% R3% U", 25.0% o.ah ....
18.9.8 203.1 20711 200.5 209.8 228.7 258.9 288.3 305.7 304.9
315
315 DIp'ICIdan llnil)
212.8 224.2 251.7 283.4 315.1 342.6 385.3 392.9 438.4 480.0
515
NO Net PratlWl
COW!Glge: 15.5x)
(23% of C;p'Q i--!~4-c~~~~f-,j~+'~!+~iC-17
....tT..+'~~~~I..""+'~;-'=="e'i~--h';;;~
UK
4.5% ~
28.0'Jt 28.M. 28.()lJ, 29.8'
26.3% 24.04% 24.0% 23.6% Z(OI ZU" IIIccnt T~ ~
t.eu-.UncapltallzedAnnuall8l'ltalsS35.5nil
8.6'4
8.8%
9.3% 102%
112% 11~
11.3'4 10.K
11.11r. 11.9% 117'1 1US NIlProttM..
It'"

,,.."

P.nslonA.ssetso&t2S519.2ml.Oblig.$852.9
:Stoct.$38.3m

.. {Owned by ESOp)
(1"afCap'~

Cammon Stock 254,712,745 shs.


u vf4l3OlO3
MARKET CAP: SU billion (L.arve Cep)
CURRENTposrrlON

ca~~
~~'~FO)
Cummt Assrts
Acds Pa)'llble
Debt. Due

=ntL.iab.

~:~

51.t.6

648.3

607.5

680.6
1m.O
11.2%

6692
1431.7
11.8'

557.6
1398.4
14.3'

510.7

63U

4682
565.4
13252 1385.4
16.9'1. 16.5"

~.9
1652
1613.8
15.6%

354.4

YJ72

4982

&50

6762

100

J.

1JOO WorkilIlClp1(W)

7JO longTIfIIIDIbI(WI

9542
779.6
1768.7 1956.0
15n
14.9%

183.0
803.0
2328.8 2486.0
15.0'1. 15.3"

tl5%

SfIr:EauHrt ....
11.5% RlbnonTIIlIIC.'

un

i-

14.6% 18.1\

18.0~ 21.'~

22./% 212~

21-"

20.1\

18-"

192~

20.'"

11,>%R_

11.4%

1oU'

18.6'4

17.1'

15.4'

1<t6%

15.1'

17.01

1U"

11.7%

11.4%

16.9'

... SIo'. E..;n,

RI1IInIdCcnEq

Jtu
'50
8Jf8
ItOll
I./Ill

"'"

~:!H:EE~::?~;;':=~E==:=
:Jlt~~r5EE',:7~~~~

1762.9
205.0
454.0

1928.7
224.6
434.6

1=:~

1~~

Kiences (16%l manufadins


rmcrtJbi:JkJgy suppIiIls. celm. analJ
28.0"; ESOP. 100,," r:I prel'd (1m prmyJ Ctnnn~ Pt&s. & CEO:
sil!lsysWns. biobgEal ~
1'1llIglInt!.. end II.bwant. Ginal lib
EJ. LIIdMaI.Inc.: New .Ieney. Adcnss: One Baton Dr. Franldil
lOUIn (31"l pod1JCl!l!!l sample 1XI1lK:ti:ln supplies, tests blakes,
NJ 07417. TeL: 201..&47-6800. Web libI: .... bcI.a:111\.

2088.1
225.0
4852

1:~

Becto~
Dickinson posted solid results
for the second quarter
(fiscal year
ends September
30th).
On a year-overyear basis. sales and eamings grew 12%
and) 2.5%. respect1vely. We attribute
the

lion range In flscal 2003. whUe cash on


hand is also quite substantial. at nearly
5290
million. Becton may utlllze resources
to pay down its debt. which would reduce
Us }Ugh interest expense. The company

posure in the defensive medical supplies


'In
industry. New products introduced during
Endl
-.-the quarter. espedal1y its blood-glucose
2DDO859.2 925.1 914.1 919.93618.3monitoring device. helped to spur sales.
2001 870.3 953.2 9C3.3961.5 3754.3These products should continue to add
2IID2
944.9 10110
998.5 1076.7
nicely to the top line for the foreseeable fu_
11151.6
1134.0 "..
IUtA 4033.1
_
_
"OIl Ill. 12e 1230 _
ture. We note. however. that at this Junef"me:.1 EAJUINGS PER
SHARE"" Ful
ture the pipeline for new products appears
V.. r 0el:.31"r.31 Jun.3D S.p.3D~
to have dried up.
Endl
The
company
recently
announced
2000 .29 .45 .43 .32 1.49 plans
to discontinue
conventional
2D01 .28 .42 .44 .49 1.63 needle sales in the U.s. across many
2002 .37 .48 .44 .50 1.79 prOOuct categories. These actlons result
/rom the Federal Needlestlck Safely and
QUARTBU.TDI't'I)EJqPAl)c.Prevention Act. Becton can provide safer
':r
1ar.31Jun.30 SeD.3G
Dec.31 ::
products. so patient care and cllntc:al pracf':':=-+"~'--'~~~~-"'''''4-~:-J tice won't be disrupted.
1999 .11 .lE
.085 ..
.34 Becton's strong
free-easb-Dow
(FCF)
zaoo .184 .093 .093 . :sf generation
provides it with a bevy of
strategic
opportunities.
We estimate
2lIll3 :",FCF will be In the $465 milllon-$495 miI-

::i~~~=~~~~~t~
businesses;
however. we do not. feel that
there are many attractive candidates at
this time. Two more viable options at its
disposal are using the funds for research
and development
of new products. or
-'-"aslng
shares (it Is ~~pproved
for
.~ .. ~_.
r-nearly 11.5 rnIllion shares).
Becto~
Dickinson
stock may be of interest to investors
seeking short-tenD
galDs. The stock's recently favorable eamIngs comparison. in coqJWlction with its
run-up inl'rtce. has emned it a TImeliness
ranking 0 2 (Above Average). Meanwhlle,
even foUowIng the stock's recent appreclation. the 3- to 5~year total return potentlal is still worthwhile. We note. though,
that our earn1ngs
estimates may prove
conservative should Becton acquire another entequise. since our model does not account for future acquisitions.
Joseph A. B.",..,uty
June 6. 2003

I-:-:=::-c==-:::-::;---=-::-===:-i
ANNUAL RATES Pat

~<r-"I
''CashF/ow"

Pa;.

Est'd .... 12:

1'~" 5:.0% ID~


9.5"

8.0%

R.ut'

5~~~~~
~g~~
:~~ d:m~~OP-eco-:'~~U::
~~~:&lt:x~
r= ~
FIKaI
Y.. r

::

E'

~11~~--J:'

:~ :~ :~ :~ fl:

= .~~:: :: :: ~

(A) F'IICIII)'I".ends5epl ~J:PmwyEPS:


UmJgh 1997; diuB:l th
. Excl IDIn!CII".: '87, 7.; '93. d46;"94. '.; '97. ~
'88,
1147,; '99, d4~; "01, d14. Exd. pm Irtrn
Cl 2CIl3, VIUe!.De f'lJbli5hiIII. lilt. AI !Vb -..!.

lidisc'
d ops.: '86, -4; '89,18 .
due 8tII .lJIy.
(el

r ...

Nla:I: EPS report

NtIXl diw'd rneetng ..


,\ugUst. Goes u
June. Diold pafll*ll datei::: Jan. 2nd,
"'*riIiI is ~
Inn ~
IIlIliewd so

TH(PUlIJ5H[RISNJ1R~ElORNA'![RR~OIlOMl~HrRrlll.T1Iif,puIIIiI;IIIion~IhIy"~-'l'IOIIc
rI~my.~rtaI,ltftl:Ia~
b

1I.,-.....-s."lN:._

a-. ...

"+

MaICh 31st, June 3011. Sepl3Oll, .DP"drW1-~~CII'IIpany'.Financlallbwtgltl


WlJinenl pIIiIn ..,ai.bIe.
Stock's PrIcI StablltJ
(0) Ind. mang. In 112: $853.7 miI.. $3.34IItL.
PIb Growth PllrU1ti1f1c8
(E) In dions, ..:IjustBd b splb..
EarIIl.
PrMictablitJ
is pvwdeII ~
WInWIlits 01 ., bM1

lie"" ..

..........

~.-ulilgIftJ'II'iJIIIll.~"""Anke.

u..

Nofl"l.

prllllld

60
90
85

:11:

I.,

BERKLEY
rw,R.
1

1WEUNESS
SAFTY

TECHMCAL

RMYtW

3 fnlUllllJ
2 RMfJ2Jm

~a

i:";":Z

Am, TalII

Gain~l

Price
HIIh 130 (~155%
LJN
85
1+65%
Inskler Decisions
A SON
0 J

==-

.&11

Return
27%
, .. "

gggggggJg
000000000

.m

..,

1:::"1

12

91
450~

=-!J91PrU
15.01 E~

33.3
16.8

24.2
13.2

31.8
9.3

38.9
23.3

40.8
29.9

..

>

.r:f

h' .. ,I,1 I I

~~"I 'I.'
j"1I"
~

15

10 ~
5~

.J.' 1

1..-....

...

'

48

40
32
24
16

.II

..........hl 11111.1

\
"-/~~

_ .-

Target Price Range


2006 2007 2008

"

II II" I.
.1' .I'.L III

0.8%

51.3
36.6

t::t=l==l==t==t==t:==l==~~l~g==t==i=~:::=$
..:g
~

ilduIi!'s tlUDilIn

""

Ptil'Clnt
101!l slures
4657~ ~ed
101.'

30.9
19.2

1-+---+----\--1--+--+----\--1--+----\--1--+--+--+,'"

P sh

ShngI1

Hur-2 s:~
~
9191
]'-2
1102

:~.
.,".
,. A "

Instltution-I Decisiona
1CD_2

High:
21.2
22.4
18.7
24.7
23.9
f--"Low~,,=,,,,3"'_'L-,,14,,.2'-L---:1'4.4
15.3
17.9
LEGENDS
-

BETA .1!i O.DO.......


e(jI ~~S
PROJE",

I~~
50,881~11011.1 G~::i11;) WJ% 0.65 ~

NYSE8ER

I,

~"'r+--It--f--+----+-~'--:::'c---,----+"
\

... "

.,

..

% Tot.~:
1 yr.

';)
~~:

s:::: ~

248.3
11.1

120

23.11

BLYTH, INC. NYSEBlH


3 I..DR:rrllll1Ztl111Z
3 Nl5'ltl589
3 ....._

TWEIJ1l[SS

SAfETY
TECHNICAL
2_

Low

3-b-2 ~

(+1W1
{+45%

~No

o
o
o

_,**srl!Cl!'SSioo

",.

tc:

,_
"'., .. .......
" ,.... ,....'"'
fi.
!:'

,I

70

,/

PORlDnt

1/
..

"/"

'.

,1'1

..

..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of4l3OlD3


TIltIJDtbt$19S.9mil.
Due .. 5 VIS $41.3mil
LT DlblS176..1 mil.
LT ~.rnI $13.8ml.
(LT i'rI!I8$1 e.ned: 12.3x; total interest cuverag&:
1Ub)
(24%aI'Cap1)
~,
Uncapltalltad Annuall1!ntlls $20.6 mil
No o.tinad Benlfit "-halo .. Plan
PM Stock None

=~bIII

..

shares

=""

130.6
83B
181.8
27.7
423.9

(FIFO)

Current Asslrts

""""

"'_11-"'1
s....
''Cash Row"
Eamngs
Diri1ends
BooIl. V.1ue

s:
.,
21103

53.7

83.6

,,,.....Pat

lID

..

"...
20.0%

......
S.""

-..

20.5%
17.0%

8.""
Q.5"

--

20.5%

12.5"
'4.0%

--

IIIARTBIlJ SA1fS II:o-.J

Apr.31 J.,Jt
0<1.31 I.Jl
291.4 248.7 32'" 332.7

261.2 2'9.6

,_

11972

31~0

21.

335

319.1 36&. 1198.5


362.2 380.5 12M.
IJIG
375
4IIB

321l

405

#/I

15410

fARtllfGS PER SKAREA.

ADrJO

...

2IIIlI
2101

.33
.36
.42

.......

Od.31

.63
.55
.65
.71
.11

Jan.31

...

.51
.55
.12

.oft
.73
QUARlBlLY DIVIlEIIDS PMI c
IITJt Jun.3l"iOO: llocJl

-.-.--

1111
2000

2001

.39
.27
.40

... ...

21103

c...

Jul.31

2lI03

..
.10
.10
.11

.13

I~Fo=''''J,"U''l'3101.

----.

..
--

..
.10
.11
.11

B 0
egs.. pm.,
19S. bough
iscal
1996. EJ:ClJdes norn::I.r IoIsBs: '97, 7-.., '02,
II. Nexl8Im1ip l'8porl dllil!lYI1y S~.

214.8
11.8'

Z7
13J

..

.TI
3.11

.....

20.1
1.68

..

331.3
13.6%

24.0

2.03
1.63
1.96
UO

..

~
Futl

VOlT

..
20

21
22

2.TI

~'2

L70

~03
20

1.63

1.96

20

.22
.33

.-

..

.99

3"1

sro

.B1

S.55

"."

".1u

" ...

......

31.8

lU

20.'

14.0

1>9

1.99

lJ9

.80

.8<

..

495.7
15.5%

B.S
1.1

..

.m
162%

12.

sao

..

..

815.1

1.9%

1097.5
17.5'1.

'"

1142

38.3'
8.4%
191.3
176.6

322.0

380.2

11.8'"

11.7'

23.1'
23.1'

2'.3~

..

"

1197.2

1.3~
28.1
33.'
96.'

7<,
1432

B.96
41.07

..

19B
39.4'1.
8.5%

...

1.92

1.00

24.3%

..

34.3%
8.1'
224.4
167.3
421.8
17.5%
23.0"
20.1'1.

10~

.25

B.90

11.71

".86

.06

13.8
.71

14.0
.7

!lI

"

1198.5
14.3%

362
TT2

36.~

1288.6
14.9%

U.

,..,
1,.

~.7
-17.0

VALlE LH PIlII. -C .
JU5 ~p'l'IhA
U> -Cub Aaw'" pi!' III
t.. Eammu~1!l1l

...... ...
...
.......
:::::
>20

IU.

1310
15.0%

7.'"

7.1%
3188

6.4%
160.2
<68.1

1651

13.6'
16.5"
14.5"

13.9'"
16.9'
15.0'

325
155

...

539.5

12~

1U"
11,'"

11~

15IlO

I...,.
Il5ll

''''''
fall "'"

''''

.JO
.10
U.2Il

.5lI
II5Il

YWd

"'ilnII,A

t."

~=.I

17.'"

#.0
155

n.'"

Long.,,,,, IIobIIlniII
S,,,.- .......

, ....

iD

an Totli tip,
RtUn on SIlr. ENlv

Rnn

RnIned
AD DiY'dl

...

I.5lI

J55 W..... gCopT' .... j

'"

150

A'll Ann' [h'd

'.511 NoIPn>lt_
rTI

..

,tIlO
(

110

flO NotPn>&1
___ TaRD

n.'"

...
-

A
__'ll Ann'll'lE
111..ROo

,.'" a

x.

f-7.5

c:

~-

J1I
91.2
lO'
37.2'/0 37.0%

2852

I!l

Div'd. DId'd ~

.55 c~~
... gpor'"
1(10 Boat. YIIut pII' llfI D
0IIIDllII Sh.
g

33.'

to Cant &!
to NIl Prvf

100
lOoo
f(5lI
fl'"
fa",
7ll

We expect
more profit
growth In ZOO4
and
the years
to come.
Blyth should
continue to bene6.t from Its multi-faceted
approach. With Its new
distribution
presence in the catalog and Internet
arenas. the company now operates in all of
Its major distribution channels. We believe
the positive momentum
In Its direct sel1Ing
business, PartyUte, will oontlnue on the
strength
or successful
marketing
and produet quality.
We also expect wholesale
channels to Improve once consumer confldence rebow'U1s.
Too. mst
discipline
should enhance the bottonl line.
The companys
financial strength
indicate5 that the 3- to 5-year time borizon looks promising.
Blyth's deb. to capItal ratio is modest, and It generates
strong cash flow, which could well be used
for future aa:retJve acquisitions, and to
lower debt and related Interest ~mes.
Also. Blyth recently
raised Its dlvl end by
18% to $0.13 a share. whim further sug~ts a strong cash position .
told. these shares are a sound long
term invesbnent.
offering solid price
~preciation
in the pun to 2006-2008.
inlon R. ShoucaJr
July 11. 2003

Inn

1."'0_

D't8r1tJer

... _

.....

...,. ...

(E)1.ml ... ,,,_,,,,,

__

i1tIlngllll!s. In fl5Cal20Q2: $149.4


shin.
ilI:on.
liIe
. n:. M'
~.
ftlal ~
is CItUiIIe:f rnn 5IlIlKeS baIiMd III bII! nWM l1li B
.
Il'IIDIIr --*s at
THEPU8USlRIS~SIIlE"1':Il.A'fYERRORSOROIIISSIONSHERnN.11B~ii5hIY"'''''''''S~''''''''inI''U5e~pM
fll..,
R .........
tIInIllll __
i1.,- fD*d, tlIa1ri:. _ ....
gIIBIIiIJ. AUlilg IIlJ'
a"
sene

'*

3D."

25.43 25.57 27.90

22.85
~51
1.89

127

..

1.05

-12.1

'd;

268.0

m.'

2~::~j1t 2004'".
1" .
3".

'0

....... :

....
.....

lID]

Blyth's
earnings
or SD.4Z per share
in
the fi....
t quarter
or fiscal ZOO3 (year
ends January 31st) were in line with
our expectadons.
The company's 13%
share-net gain over the year ago period
was maJnJy driven
strong revenue
growth. It enjoyed
ecent oore sales
growth
via
Its
Candles
&
Home
Fragrances dJvtsJ.on (86% of total revenues), which ~
4% year over year.
and added 52
on to the top line .
Strength there was mainly driven by its
Partyllte
business,
where
marketing
promotions and the early launching of a
new product line aided the advance. But.
the bulk of Its overall sales growth came
from the Creative Expressions :5iegment
(14%), where revenues have more than
doubled year to year. thanks to recent ac(1u1slllons.
The Inclusion or CBK Styles
ZD02) and Miles KImball
(acqulsillon
cornpleted on April 1st) helped the overnll division nanuw operating losses by $ 1.2 million. Despite weakness in the wholesale
channels, we expect marketing st:rategies
and the improved flow of new products to
enable growth trends to continue throughout the rest of the fiscal ~.

60.3

Est'd '00-'02

..

2D

ftI" abou1 26% or Is Ilnnuall8VQllU8l.


Acqrd EnlW Co., 5l'a7; Lf.
;eholnEns, 12/98; CBK, Ltd, 5,(12; Mllel KInbII, W3. 2002 depr.
flIIe: 14. U'- Has.bout 5,000 CI'ltptJ)088s; 1,982 dt*h. &.gen
faniy DlIImS 21.4% aI' stock (5103 prm;y). Chrmn, CEO & Pres.:
Robert B. Goerven. In<:.: ~
. Ad ... : 1 Eat W.....
snel,
GreeIlWich, cr 06831. TeL: 203-861192&. Web: www.b/yth.cam.

449.4
19.8
97.5
1R.6

1.63

"30
"

BUSINESS: Blyth, Inc. lllilnufactlns candles MM1home hgfance


pruductl, i'lc:IlJding KenEJd candlas and potpoooi, and mnets
t'IumertXlS
nJId8d 8CC8SIOI'iII. The amfIIny is ...
II IMdI"Q' prodllC8l' aI' portable h.tOg pmducb. Blyth operata .. two procIuct
MgmIlt'lts: Candles & Homa FragrIlIIC8S (85% of fiscal '02 sales),
an:l er.tive ExprwssiJns (abcut 15%) products.
_Ies aa:cunl

".0
200.4
.2.6

11.4

Put

.-

-~-2IIIlI

122.4

'72..
"'6

13...

ANNUAl. RATES

4I30I03

53.'

31.5

CurTVnl.liab.

200'

2'.

,.

I.

.. Tot RE1URJI

''''

(liid Cap)

168.6
82.9
181.9
3aO

1.51
42.:01

..,

.. ".2'/0 39.7" "J~


38.8"
.. 6.2'/0 '2% 8.1'
B.'~
.. 41.6 107.1
140.1
..
21.5
<3
32.0 119.6
.. 63.a 143.4 1118.1 246a
_. 20.7' 14.5' 18.8" 16.5'1.
.. 20.... 16.8% 21.3~ 23.5'
.. 20.... 16.8' 21.3' 23.5'
..
..
..
..
..

U 015131103

2001

..

2'

ao
60
50

15

1994. Net proceeds lotaied appraximalely


$20.5 mil. The lead underwnters were
Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette and William
Blair& Co. A secondary offering 014.95 mill.
shares (adjus1ed lor s1D<:k splits) was made
on Oclober 6, 1995. The lead underwrif"",
were cona!dsor, lu1kin & Jemelle, Winiam
Blair& Co. and Walburg ciion Read.

c.~~
R_Ollivables

Tllrvet Pric. Rilnge


2006 2007 2008

-, - - ..-- -

1111,

..

CURRENT POSITON

29.3
23.5

..--- ....

Blyth, Inc was inCOl)loraleddUring 19n, 1993199419951996Wi1~~~'


.. 5.08 1.19 10.52 1400 17.79
in Deiaware. Its iMia! pubiic offering of
11.18 mil. shares, al $1.83 a shara (ad.38
.62
1.43
1.82
1.03
..
jusled for stock splits) or:cul7lldon May 18,
.33
1.17
.55
.86
1.00

Slocll45,946,7Z1

32.8
20.8

21.4
18.'

V...

271~ 28181

MARKET CAP: S1.3 bliion

21.1

./'"

75

Common

33.9
21.1

34.'

22.0

""

,ndltutio ...., o.a.lon.

:~~I

38.1

",.

'.,

25%

000
1 000
1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0
1OI"
78

39.5
20.8

.... p5h

,,"

Insider Decision.
A & 0 " D J F A

....::0::....

34.3
18.8

a.'

&191

,.,.~

Ann1TGtaI
Rnun

GIiR

8.1

27.361~1ll12.4(~r.:::~)WJ%O.731~ 1.0%

2:';"1~~SlrmgOl

PROJE~N~_
Price
65
40

HiP

High:
Low:
LEGENDS
_12OJcidlr

n.oo .. MaI1l1)

IEl' .15

I~ECEf(l
PRitE
'.5 19.7

l~

SiDck'a
rict StlbilllJ'
Prb Growttl PlinlstllllCll
Eamlngl Prdcllllilly

(D)lndudes
~.23.

used"

rn-

1IIDiri:,....,

75
45
75

tilcI.
a"

P*E1

I".

: II:

11-.

BURLINGTON
RES. NYSEBR
2

lWoEUIIESS

Rii5ed 1/11&3

3
3

WID

TECHMCAL
IElJ,

L.-=r~ tal'"
a.-ml~]

6.5 I

53.9
36.5

PIU

j);

"""TotaI
G.ln~~......

11"

42.3
33.6

53.5
35.1

54.5
39.8

49.6
29.4

47.6
29.5

~2.9
25.8

53.6
31.7

45.3
32.0

51.0
40.8

5nngCI

CCt.-o iJIbIr5

200&46 PROJECT1ON.

49.6
33.1

-ca. FIlM'"' p lh

.. ".. :~

J5 ".DO.lIWUl)

High PIle.
75 ,...~

1.1%

High:
43.6
law:
33.0
lEGENDS

I~

_._

"
111',,11 1I"hl'll 1,,/"
i"'II,liI~.I"" I, Ul"IlII' - ,"", ","'i,I'
"";;'''=-~1'~'
.l1-l~-l---=~~~;"-+-...,-l--.:'~-::!JfII'-Il!!:j_.:..rn-.Jl:'+--+--l--+--+-----If-"
I:.
1.
......
/11'
-"
~~ 1!lI'I

1C

",1'"

~--~---l~~~~E~~~~~~~~~~

I;:'::'lDw;~"nii"0Nr'
~t'~"~11-~ggggg~gggn
In.ider Decisions
J

_Illy

J "

SON

J F ,~,

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE.

Clf3IJ1.Cl3

D.... ill 5 YfI;$1000 nil


LT InteIBt $260 mil
""""", 1.8<)
1'7~ of Cop'Q

Total DtIb1$39'27 nil


LT Delli $3859 niU.

(T<UI""'"

Leu., UnCl.pttlUzedAnnual
'enslon ~tm2

18/l!lll!l $44.0 mil

S138 nil Oblg. $187 mil

PhI Stodt None

CCImInOII Stock 200,782,319 shs.


IIARItET CAP: $ID.2 blllicm (La. C.p)
CURRENT POSmON

IIII.LI

Co"' ......

m:r1tDl)

(FIFO)

Cull1lntAs-m
AIDs Pllyable

O!he'
Cl.Irrenl:UIIb.
ANNUAL RATES
.....
(po .. )

Silos
''Cash Aaw"
E.mi1~
[)jyiderids

Book v...

16

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~~

12

1249.0 1054.8
43.3' 48.6'

8m 1293.0 2000.0 1637.0 206S.G 31.7.0


59."
3'6.0

531.0

534.0

1881
..

45.3%
337.'
3n.6
154.3 24..
..
..

255.0
'6.ll"

~7.5
'8n

86.0
U~

15.1"

14.6"

19.1%

17.9IJ.

5.3%

d22.9

'.1

819.1

1309.1

215)

2.8%

'$9
1350.3

74.0
1347.0

56."

45.91. 54.1'

14ll.0 dJ8.D
1748.0

1938.0

631.0

6O.Z"

3326.0
60.1'

2964.0
53.~

3900
15.0%

704.0

730

133.0

854

166.0 625.0
'1.8~ 35."

680.0 .olIO.O '15


311~ 18.n J5.0lI
8.0% 19.9% 20.4% 13.8"
Zl.G
19.0 ZS3D d96.D 39.D
1<5

2769.0

2301.0

2608.1 2568.0 2220.4 2333.0 3016.0 3018.0 3246.0 3750.0


6.6%

5.1\

21%

72'

6.D'

1.1,

4.5'11
31\

3.2t.
46\

Nt.F
NW=

8.5%

10.ll"

9.D%

un

(I.~

94'11

271

2"

4237.0

3525.0 3S32.0

32%

4.5"

12.0",

10.0"Ii

1.8~

6."

16-"

19"

NMF
1131

1.2\

1U"
141

16.0"
17"

n\

3853.0
7.t%

10J~
7.8"

U50

4115

uao

s.IeI(W)

C5DlI
10.01

15.01
80D DIp'Kidao

(10:'1)

Nrt Pratr~1
J5.0lI -..
Tull."
2G.1II Nt1ProIl....
110 Worllinl~'11nI1)
J7SO Lang-Tn

o.bt(W)

SOlO SIIr.-&I.... ,$rlllii


1.0" RDDn un TCIIJI Ctp't
ZO.OlI '3.>lI R
so.. E.....
17.5"
11.5% R
tDCcnEil
12%
""
AIID1Y'd.toNIIPruf
11.5%

1000

'117
J5.0lI
20,5"

755

:uoo

UDO
',5%
lUll
11.0%
11'%

12.8

18.3

. 4

12.3

16.8
8.7

15.0

15.5

15.4

13.4

7.8

10.7

8.7

10.5

'.~"
I

. Or,'---

"-IIUII 11111'11,.

.......

,.
12

II

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 199B


1.35 9.17 10.95 13.19 13.69 15.19 14.10 16.34 1821 21.13 22..56 23.73
.66
1i8
.87
.98
1.03
1.21
1.41
.38
.35
.41
.48
.57
."Ill
37
.44
.51
.52
.63
.76
.23
.15
.18
.2D
.26
.
.
"
.01
.03
.03
.03
.04
.05
.05
.116
.06
3.06
3.46
3.03
4.42
5.0,
5.73
1.36 1.55
1.74
1.93 2.16
2.~
45.74 45.74 45.74 44.00 44.31 44"
51.84 M.93 52.+1 52.48 52.
52.73
13.5
14.6 15.1 20.6
18.3 20.3
18.8
16.4 21.6
13.4
9.1
13.1
.66
.99
1.38
1.15
1.17
J8
!2
1.10 1.79 1.01
.68
.84
_. .. .. .'" n .7'
n .'" .4'
."
."
.4'
CAPrrAlSTRUCTURE
as of 11311037312
848.8 954.8 1109.0 1186.9 1251.1
ToII.l Debt $178.2mi. Due In 5 Yrs $100 mill
21.5% 21.51 21.61 20.11 21.6% 23.1'
LTDebt $1!16.2
mil.
LTInteret $10.0mil.
6.41
7."
7.11
6.41 7.11 8.01
Ind. $4.04 mill. capitaliulleases.
687
741
501
Br8
9t6
1022
(LT i1t8l9lt emneIl: 5.b; kJt81 inI8nls1.
16.
22.9
26.8 27.0 33.
401
coverage: 4.&)
(32"" of CaP')
38.89'4 38.nl 37.751 31.49" 37.50\ 31.501
Las", UncapllallDd Annual 1eI111.a $.04 rril
2.31 2.7'
2.81 2.41
2.8'4 321
No Dnlld Ihnllftl Pension Plan
d34.1 d33.8 d12.9 d19.1 d37.5 d13.6
61.4 60.
811
19.7
19.1 122.5
PM StOCl None
158.4 179.7 2IJi2
231.9 263.4 301.9
Common Siock 049,649,712 1M.
a C111Z12t02
9.21 10.S" 10.3" 9.7" 10.6% 103%
10.41 12.71 13.0' 11.6" 12.7% 13.3'
IIARKETCAP: $i.5OmI'/Ion (Small Cap'
9.41 11.61 11.8' 10.5" 11.6% 12.3'4
CURREHTPOSITlON
2001
2002 1131103
10'4
91
91
10'4
91
81

~=FO}
JrI.L1

=,.

26.9
106.9

Uab.

4.2
99.0
51 A.
,2 O

3.8

97.6

67.'.57

..... ~

68.04

14.9

31.75

1.~
.16

.06
5.95
51.92
16.1
.92

II

."
.6'
n
1648.2 1923.7 2053.9
1ft.71 18.910 19.11
6.4"
5.51
5.11
1119
1f91
1334
39.4 35.0 3t7
7.201 7.0310 37.201
2.41 1.81
1.5'
d656
04.9 d14.5
112.' 113.1 173!
308.8 340.5 3692
10.4'11 1.1'4
6.8"
12.81 10.3'
8.6'
11.8'4 92'4
7.5%
8'
'"
13"

5 yr.

.'"
2ft5
11",
10%
'1M

~O

31.0%
11"
.$.I)

- l20D
1l5%
"""'
,.

HI

Wnpwlll
A
'"Cuh Row"J-Ih

SUO

EarNngI,.."'
.
Dh'dlo.crd,...

ua
1.15

B__
",,'"
CClIIIIIIOn
Shl 0utd'1I
AWlAnn'ffl1E Raio
R_
PIE....
A..

2J1D
2dO%
15%
1a1

2;3.2

"YAl.UELJjfPllll.~C...

An., llIY'd"'' ' '

smll"')
A
GroaIllr;k1
OpmlngMllgkl

Jln

1'"
10.0

Mnbwofhnllf

,.

111.0

InCOlllTultRl

1.'" Workin,c.,1rJnl}
Nil PnlI1

1D.0

I"
""0
1.0"

1.0"

145 l.aotl~T
.... -_1lnoIIl
50S Skr. ElItJItv I.... '
1D.0% RIbn an TobI5~

,1.0%
10.0%

10-0%

110S Reun an Shr. EIUlV


10.51. R.wn.dtoConIEc!

U"

10S

155
455

n.O%

"'"

.oJ;
1150

2Z.5%
7.5%

50.0 10.8 N"I'rvI1(~1


3U"

.14
IU5
5Ua
110
1.05

AlDiY'dltDNelProf

JlOS
U"
10.0

,m

710
1Don
ft.5%
1t.n
'"

Sins ., gil50line nd _ broad selBdion at bod (i1ciJding"ty


pr9pmld pizza, donub, ~,
*'), blMldgflS, and nonfood Ierns. As 014I30I02. Casey'1 h8d 1,258COIrtpany-owned and
16 frandliled bcHons.ln11131
"01,gasohl accountedb 58%d

CIWT19.5% 01 d..; ....


IYgL pQn, e:.11Ii; T. ROlIN PriaI AsIoc.,
10.8% (Ml2 Praxy). Chairman: D.F. L.nbtl'i. PrB. & CEO: RM.
lamb. lnc.: Iowa. AdcIr.: One CorMlniBnc8 Blvd., Antany, IDWII
50021.Tel.:515-OO5-t1100.
II"II8rMt:
WW\II'.C3Iliys.a:rn.

Casey's

d8arett~-scanning
capabilitles to assist in
tracking
fiuctuating
prices and thereby
Improve .....""......-:1 ..... on cigarettes.
Also, the
"~IY"""""
company is moving forward
with its pian
of implementing
real-time satellite communfcations at aU its Iocatlons. as we II as
point-of-sales
capabilitles
at most of its
key stores. The company has also Installed
new video advertislnR technology on its
gas pumps In hopes 01 drawing more payat-the-purnp customeB into the stores.
Casey's
continues
to look for efficient
and cost-effective
ways to expand Although the company has scaled back Its
previous expansion
plans to add about 40
corporate stores in fiscal 2003. It has al-

posted

sond

top-line

growth

to".

10.0,," 12.,",
Fountain products.
which had sales Imfami'lQs
12.5" 9.0%
7.5" 15.0%
14.S"
and 5.9~70.
Divid&nd!l
17.5%
prove by 5 .3~
70
BookValue
13.5% 11.5'" 15.,",
and continues
to focus on ImprovQl/AR7ERLY SAlfS II IAJ A
J.'!.. ing gross profit margins on inside
Jul.31 0cU1 Jan.31 ADr. y;;; store sales at its established
locations.
Gross proftts were up 9.7% and ] 4.9% in
the Grocery & Other Merchandise and
2002 551.2 549.1 504.0 510.72115 Prepared
Food
& Fountain
divisions
2003 500 570 510 520 UOG (which together make up inside
store
2004 150 lOll W
m 231D sales), respectively. Inside store sales
~ICIII
EARtlNGSPERSIIAREAIi
~
make up over 15% of Casey's gross profit.
B~
JaU1 0cU1 Jan.31 "r.30
Recent volatility
in the wholesale
oU
12.0%

'7:'
s.::..

= ::; :U ::~ :~ :U
w::

ZOOO .32
.28
.08
.03
.71
.26 .25
.05
.25
17
104 .09.65
11
.IS
2D03 .35
:.
:15
:20 1.00
2004 .4$
.J3
.11 .21 US
C~
QUARmtLYDMlENDSPAIOc
Full
endar
1".31 Jun.30 SeD.30Dec.31 y..,.
1199
015 015 015 015 .06
07
2000 '015 '015 '02 '02
lOOt :02 :02 :02 :02 :08
ZDD2 .025 .025 .025 .025 .'0
2103 .025
lOOl
ZGlI%

III

Bald.....

in the third quarter


thanks to strong
ANNUAl
RATESPISt
'ut Esfd ..... 1 demand for its Grocery and General Merofct.lgl(plr:!tl)
1Un.
5lnL
Sal.
11.5% 15.0%
Q.5%
chandJse as well as its Prepared Food and
''Cash Flow"

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


38.87 41.39 .100 410
.... 00
1.55
1.54
1.15
100
125
.71
.65
.15
1.00
1.15
.07
.08
.10
.1D
.12
6.86
7.44
UO
1.00 IUO
49.49 49.62 5D.00 50.20 50.20
17.0
202
111
1.11
1.04
.15
..,;;...

:i' :U:=E:=''ut~=i1~M=M!=r: ~~:.~:::.


:~.~~,,::~e~::~

j~ ~~

Other
CunentAssBls
~bl~bIe

1999

(AI FIlAI p.- ItI'lds Apr'I3Oth dille fuIowing~


calendar )'IW. SaIBs fig .... udude topl)' i1COITl8ancJ the I1MlrIWS fn:lm fnlnchised Ilcnls.
IB) prmwy.-rlngs Itrnugh 1997; dilutlld
zm:r. __ liIe ~
lilt. AI rigNs 115e'ft11f.

~==~::.t::~

beJ::t~d
~
price of au de 0U per ~--l ha S wi d ened
margins on gasoline for Casey's, as the
cost of wholesale gas and oU has dropped
faster than prices at the pump.
The convenience-store
chain believes
that technology'
can better
help It
manage margins as well as improve
sales. Casey's hopes to have pay-atthepump at all of Its stores (currently
at
about 80% of its locations)
as well as
UQJ~

lD)

Uthseilft&'".

Ne:d: IIImW1g5 11lpm1due michlune.


In mililns, IIdjuR!lcl b
(CI N8XI: dlYidBnd mfIlIti1g early June. Nul u: E) Includes only a:II'l1lany.owned.....
datIlliltB July. Apprmrnat8 dividend payment.
dIMs: ~eb.,
Mil" Aug., MIl Nov.
radJall"llll!M is IIIiCIiI.a Inn -res ~
to lie rfIiIbIe .. is ~
R:hxI ~
01...,. tnlt.

THEPl&.lSHERISNJ1Il:E~lQRNf'fERRORSOROIMSSIOHSH[R[IN.Thi5~iI.~
riI_ 1aIJ" ~
~
tand ~
i11r1J ....
I!IBhlir. II"
bII. II ..

... ~_.nOll~""'use.fiop-.rt
lI.-.arit

vr--.g. ~..,

C:dJ: ~ ~

~~ruob~~~~t~7i:~~

end of the IIs cal year.


These shares
offer worthwbile
3- to 5year appredation
potential.
given the
steady earnings gains we project over that
time. Lower gasoline
prices and better
managed margins should boost results In
the next few quarten.. In the interim.
though. this equlty Is ranked to perform In
line with the market
averages.
George Y. Lee
May -9. 2003
sb:k.~
CGlnp8J\'Y'S F~.1K:iM snnlllb
B

........

sma

SIDck"s Pllce S1lbilly


Prb Grvwth Perw.tat.nca
PradlC'bdll1ty
I

GIpI8dIltL

75

e.s

_Eamiltgl

I'.

80

II:

11-.

RAOO13 3CW.,:
CHESAPEAKE CORP. NYSE.(SK I~22 00 I~f

IlilnI

2 '""on",
3 ... .,...
4 1.Mr~mlJ3

l1IE\IIIBS
SAFElY
TfCHNJCAl
IIE1A

..IS

HIgh:
LOW'

29.1
18.3

35.>

17.1

22.3

31.8
23.'

39.0
27.5

36.B
27.1

'"'"

'-:-

...........
, ,

'.

.~ "
-"."

.~
- .'

-'

'1111'

.. ., ............
"'.,

,,'

- '-. '.--

"M

"' ,

,,.

as'"

180.0
12.""
701
10.'

CAPITAL STRUCTURE
3I3UI3
Tatal Debt $491.7mil.
Due In 5 Yn $259.1 mill.
LT Debt $483.6 mill.
LT Int ..- $40.0 ml.

151% "'Coo'ij
lMses, Uncap/tl.lredAnnUllI Rentals $6..8 mil.

49.a"
111
87.1
333.1
368.0
lBI
261
NIF
NIF

P.... lon AsMIs-1211l2 $59.8 mil Oblg. $49.1

ml

--

PM Sioct None
CClft\I'I)OfI stock 15,309,014 shilJllS

a "'4l251li3

MARKET CAP: PZ5 million (Sm." Cap'


CURRENT POSmaN
>130m
""2

"'"

Ca,l,,~

20.1

98.3
182
261.3
88.1
'.B
131.5
2192

Cumtnt Assets
Payable

00"0u0
OlIN<

Liab.

~""'u-"I
So'" ......
"Cash
Earnings
Dividends
Book Value

-...
--

....,
2OD2

20113

2llI1

2OD2

CeI-

..

...

2Oi:9

Esl'd ... 12

--1.5%

5.5"
B.'"
27.5"
2""
5.5"

-17.0%
2.0%
7.0%

.Iun.30

SIII.iI

Dec.31

134.2
198.2
1821
211.5
115

160.3

165.9
204.6
210.8

194.3
201.2
240.3
ZI7.'

116.5
119.0
205
UIl

215
131
EARtaNGSPERSHAREA

r.31 .IunJO

d.13
.02
d.OZ
.18

SeD.

FuI'
v_
654.7

190.5
822.2

'55

D'

Iil5

D1c.31

F'"
v_

d.l1
.13
.60

.28
.37
.75

.55

.72

1.1$

.If!
.7'
Q\JNITERI.Y
01VllEN05PAIl"

UD

.20

.... r

lIar.31

'"

.22
.22
.22

2001
2lID2

Pat

2.0%
8.0,,"

8.1
95.'

5.'
95.6
204.7

1Iu.31

c...

"

101.4

11.8

lIUAI!JBllI' SAlfS P IAJ

CoJ-

2GD1

103.7

SY..

.().5%

1042

"F1:9

Pal
3.0%

148.6

2.55
"2Ef:f

lITn.

2.0%

23.3

15.7
144.1
102.4

124.7

(UFO)

ANNUAL RATES

3O.B
12..

.09

.11
.14

.zo

.25

.1110.30 SeIl.3G

Dee.31

.22

.22

.22

.22
.22
.22

.22

.22
.22
.;;

.22

..
.22
20113
.22
.22
101......,. .... "' .. '997 ... _
.....
nOl'l'8Ctl'}disalnJIUtrI. net tpIinW(bssl1s~ 1IZ,

(61~ '93, 5. '95, (16f W, $1.04; '98, (41'1:


'99, 1043; 00, ($4.34: '01, (S1.80), '02. (3
II ZlIIl, VIIlIe liIe ~
'fllE Pl8USlER ~ JIlT R[
all.., tit IIIpIIdIaId.II5DII.

rifg

..,

11111,

22.>
14.3

"

."

--- .- ..-

Target Price Range


2006 2007 2008

.13

.69
1.47

Full

v..,
.18
.88
.18
.18
_

50
40
3D

--

"

II

ZD
1S

lD

_....~ .'.

I "J ". :-'f-__.

...

CulT8nl;

19.3

12
B

~ 1995 1996 1jjiiJ2~01


1992 1993 1994
1987 1988 1989
1990 1991
33.07 34.60 39.54 41.16
40.73 36.118 37.66
-41.62 51.84 -49..51
47.93 44.41
3.43
.>6 7.'9
5.0t
3.79
4.67
3J3
3~1
3.70
UI
'.16
'.79
1...
.55
1.90
IS!
.7S
.39
251
231
.78
127
'.04
.46
.52
!O
!O
.n .n .n .n .n .n .78 .10
130
3.50
6.41
6.13
.36
33
2n 228 6.63 5.5(1 310 3.43
11.68 13.66 15.27 "36 15.431566
1653 19.68
19.81 20.62
20.'"
<U ....
1.
I...
....
13.1
7.6
30.1
179
21.7
59.1
92
7.'
lO.' 25.1
NM'
3.;;
2
1.40
1.60
1.11
1.36
.63
.70
1.63
.53
.93
NM'
3,41
121
1.11
lBI
3.11
151
2.51
2.41
291
241
231
271

AI:;d5

16.8

."

i!t.~

O1h.r

29.>

25.8

BD

1',

1
(+1T~1
3(1%
'i.r'
..
(+10%
""
ln5id.r DlICglons
ASOIDJFIA
.. ..,
100000000~.
OpiI-.OOooooooo,,,:,
.. 1111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ,.~
InsUluUo1lll1 Dft:lslons
a., 1Q111 Po",,",
1QI0l
47
43
35
47
991B
9101

,,,...,.,,,.

35.B

_Di:*JI'I'Ct'SJlI:In

eo

....

t'Rl% 0.791~ 4.0%

38.B

50

'e.'"
~

(lOO-1AaIUt)

4'.8
31.8

LEGENDS
_
1.ll1CISlf"'psh
_.. R __
PrEe Shngll

2IlO6-08PROJEt1lONS
Ann'I TDIllI :ll
Price
Gabt
RII!'Iurn

25.B

: 2U
13l)

....... .....""'"

" TOT. RETtJRIII M3

lp.
'po

12.7

43.36
U.
.13
.18
5.12
23.13

..

15.1U

NMF
NM'
3.4'
654.1

271

990.5 1233.7 1158.6 1021.0


950.1 1162.0
15.3' 19.7% 13.91 112'10 14.8" 13.7l.
70.9
716
81.1
15.1
623
811
37.6
.75
30.1
127
428
36.0
35.41 34.0'4 36.11 29.41 36.71 33.""
261
7.91
3.8"
'2'10
'.51 3.31
144.3 1123 159.0
174.9
155.8 291.0
354.0 393.6 41'99.4
2642 210.4
2241'.4
3932 468.3 469.1
.22.0 441.3
S51.1
4.8%
7.0'4 13.'"4
3.4".4
"1
6.8"
9.61 20.81
6.41
3.l1lI
In
6.""
Sll 11.0"
2.ol1
5.8"
NM'
191
631
.."
'51
NIl'
'71

18.51

,.'"

73.6
1.7
NM'
21
365
634.7
3492
1.5%

.51
NM'
NM'

2002
2003
2004
51.05
52.01 54.09
09.0'
100
160
5.39
'.68
1.47
1.15
200
.6'
.88
.11
.Il
.18
2.n 3.31 UO US
31.36 n,o 31JO
28.36
15. 0
1"
15.6
365
1.S7
.15
3.81
3.5"

,.

7905
15.5"

71.4
10.5

2&61
121
421
.... 3
431D
311
24%
NIF
NIF

155
'10%
50.0
25.'
.10%
10%
.. 0

4.41

10%
4.0%

J05
'10%
"-0
5U
25.0%
... %
1lO

.."

4.8%
20'4
.. I

53%

..... ,....

FJw"',. ..

-Cuh

W1*lg1

pII'

III A

Dtv'dl W'd pi( III ...

Cop'....... I,.. ..
Boc* \'aIuI,., Ib C
I
AYQAnn'I~~~
R_PJERdo

.......

=-

1_
11.15
7.35
3.25
1.00
115
:JI.15
1

'10
UO
1l~

.AytAn,,'DiY'dYlllld

'010
1<0%

ItO

0_1"'.,

",,_HI

IncaIIt Tu RaIl
Not...........
W_I Cop11"'.)

"' l.ongT"'_~J

lIS

ao

26.S

cYAlUE UNEPIJB .C.

~-

-..: ...

8222
13.6%
461
2l.9
205"
281
63.0
.... 0
476.6

12>

-19.0
-35.1

'p

66.31
6.81
1.16
.11
-4.71
31.5'
17.51
17.4

7.'

510 Shr:E_'1noIIi
1'" Rnam ell TCIlII tip'

e"""

lO% '-Ill ....


~O% RQlMdtD Con Eq
'Ill AI DiY'dl ill NIt PraI

50.5
u.0%

~'"
21.
m

'"

..

10%
I.5lI

3'~

BUSDfESS: Chesapeake Carp. conducts special)' packaging ~nd.


cmugnd
ax1IbIeIs, mnmner-prudud
pacUglisJ, and plasti:
contIinssl
mill'1ly
11 the U.S. and the UK. Owns 6,500 KIn tl
high-akJe tinbnands. Acq'd Fni e.ton (1lOO) Ind EIo:ianor8
Inn (WOl. 5c*l Chesapeake Pllckagllg (5101), Cob-Ba;I (7.01),
ClNilupel.ke Display & PlICQging (1101), ConsWlW Pn:lrnati:Ins

(llW1~ and lennimlted jlm-verrtum wlh GlIOIIIia-PacllC (3101).


Has 5,835 empklyees 11M <1,155 shnholders OIfJdr. CIWIl &.5% of
sIDCk; Bart:IiI)'S Global, 6.0%: DimlIInai:Jnal Funds, 6."%; SunTrust
alnks, 8.6'4; Skoog ClIp., 6.6% (3m pt'DXy). Omn., Pres.. &
CEO: Tl10rnIs H. Johnson. Inc.: VA. Address: 1021 East c.y St,
Ri:hmond, VA 23218. Tel: 8I34-M7-1000. Web: www.c:sIu:crpJXlll.

Chesapeake started 2003 on a solid


note. with sales up 19% and ea:ndngs returnlng to the black on a year-over-year
basis. Nearly 86% of the $35.4 million Increase in the top line was due to favorable
translation effects. The remaining 18% can
be attributed to improving sales in the
pharmaceutical
and luxury paperboard
r.;:ckaglng
market, as well as Increased
and sales. Based on current exchange
rates and the company's settlement of indemni8c:ation obligations to St. Laurent
Paperbaard. we are raWng our 2003 earn
Ings outlook by $0.50 per share. to $1.65.
The company remains focused on expanding its operations as new construcdon at its two German plants continues.
These fadUtles should enable Chesapeake
to better fulflll its customers' demands
while lts cost structw-e improves with the
use of more modern equipment. Abnost
half of the company's capital expenditures
for the March period came from the aforementioned activity.
SoUd free ca.b Oow generation ftrovides Chesapeake
with a bevy 0 options. We believe that after allocating
funds for ('.apital expenditures. the compa-

ny will seek to reduce its debt burden by


at least $20 mlIllon In 2003. Another pas.
slbllty is that management may seek to
further expand operations through aequ!sitions. We note that the packaging industry is a very fraCed
group. and the
posslblllty
of
g an
attractive
candidate Is strong.
These timely shares offer wide 3 to 5-

...

_du .....'..,..

(81 Diridends histDriallly paid in mid-f"ebfuill)'.


mid-Uay. rnG-August, and mil-No"'ub6i.
-Ol'l'd r&imst. plan aval

.-en.

rr- ~

year

CASH POSITION

ICI'nd.-~
D In mlions.

---= ~

5-Y.... A'g

C~AaMs
b CPTWntUlbfiltE
e.tI & tqtW"lD Ca.Nnt L..II.bMM.;
w~
Cliplal to 511.. :

r.-ue l1li IJV'Il*d wIlIouI wMJMM5 1II ~


~s
... HCI.......N.. tiel.IIIIIBlIIIllSll
...-.e ..-...g." p;.d
stna.

mentIS. fld1III
15 ~
bIIieM ID be
ORNfY ERRORSOR OIIlS9ONS HERE... 1his~
110
sn:IJb
11..-.1 .. .,. pn.I. ~
III' atII!I ...
Df aed III

od:tential.

appreciation

After

revamping its product


ertngs from tradJtiona! pack.aglnC1 solutions to more spedat!zed products.
hesapeake. It seems. Is beginning to reap the frulls of Its labor. We
expect this strategy will result in further
ean>!ngs f.aInS through 200&-2008. A generous yje d, whJch looks well-covered by
the company's projected earnings and
finances, adds to the stock's potential total
return. Moreover, our Target Price Range
may well be enhanced by more acquisitlons.
Joseph A. Beyrouty
July 11, 2003
t...

t.. "

",

"'"
'0.

~~

Stock's r1C11
Stabl'"
PrIcaGnrwUl ~CII
Earnlnp Prwdlctabilly

Urd.
pM
plIlU1

,.

,-....
80
15
30

: II :

II-

CONSTELLATION NYSE.m

IIRECEHl
PRICE

26 81I 1Ipf
(TIO.,g: 13.0)
RElAlT/E 0 75
IRAllO 121

14J Pf RAllO.
lIIdiOl:

Nil

IlI\'l)
YlJ)

Target Price R;m~

2006 2007 2008

.- ---

Luses, UngpltallDd Annll.ll rentals $20.5 rriI.


'.nsion lIebllty Non.
PldStockNOII8

Conwnon Stodl: 90,<491,293 shs.


(48% cA Cap')
Ind. 12,078,.f90 C1 'S" mwllftib8. w*n9 Ad..
MARKET CAP: $2A bilion (lIId ClIp)
CURRENT pOSrnON
ClIsr~
ReOl!liYabiu

'n~

(FIFO)

Other
CumtntAsEs
AI:ds Payable
Deb!. Due
0Iher
Current Li8b.

:zooo

zoot

11I30I'02

12.A" 13.0" 12.01.


1.61 12.8% 14.6'
15.5"
15.8% 'U"
15.5% .15%
115% Rl1IiMdtDCcnEq
1.1""

'"
HI AI DlY'dl to fMt ProI
HI
29.9
479.7 f-:;=::"==,,"".,-,;-;c-'--;;::=.L-c-c-+':-:-;---L~~'---'-7.=;-L--c-'--::c=.L-,....,.-'c---c=c-:,.-,.----'~.,--j
BUSIIESS: ConstBIIiItion Brands, Ine. is thelqesl aing!e-1OtK8
12198): tnnded (1''10), whokBIIla (18%). Flillnc:iscan EstdvI
880. J
(acq'd 15/99), filii wi'Ies (4%). Owns 29 produaon facaties. H.ls
76.2 slipplier rJ wine, Inport8d be&" and spits in the Uidld Slain.
1465.9
Sfvnsnts: canandaigua W.... (30'" of '0' IIflI. lis.): .un.d ... In- 5,080 mnpIiI., 954 C., A, 249 Cl B 1tkh1dls. SalJ:lI tniy owns
& CocM'. dl~gneL
2.8" CL A, 93.7% CL B sha. (60112Pnlxy). ChHrnan & CEO:
217.7 gIl;Jnoo'l, Attlor AliII, Taylor Ra.1W
136.4
88.5 B.-tJn: bll81S (271.): CotmI, SL Pd Git, spris (10"):
Ridlilld Sands. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 300 WIowblOOk 0lr1C8 P.k, Fair
305.4
4052
gll, TIBIJHigh botRon, 8.fac* VIrlWf whiskey. Wdhllw Clart (W;q'd
port, NY 14450. Tat 585-218-3600. 1nWn8t: WWW.cbn!lnds.lXlIIl.

145.7
9.0
314.3
383.9
870.0 m.8
61.0
60.7
1191.0 "123'i'2
114.8
153.4

58.4
254.0

427.2

s.mn

595.2 """1'iTA

Constellation
Brands recently
com- namely imponed beer, fine wine. and U.K.
pleted the acquisition
of BRL Hardy wholesale. Over the coming year, we exUmited. Australia's largest wine pt'Opert that STZ's recent high-margined line
''CDhFlow"
235'"
ducer. According
to the tenns of the wine acquisitions and related synergies
EanWJgs
.26.5%
fa""
transaction. Constellation paJd BRL Hardy
should help to widen the companys opera
DiYi:ler1ds

shareholders S10.50 a share (either In tlng mar}llns, with Constellatlon's yearBcd Value
21.0%
15.0% 21.""
cash. stock. or a c:ombinatJon of both), with end tally coming in around $2.40 a share.
~....
QUARTERLTSAlfS IllllI.I"
Co,..teUa!ion's
leveraged
balance
.::.
II)' 31 AIIII.31 No . 30 Feb.21 y_ the total value of the deal approxlmal1ng
_
535.6 637.5 621.6 544.0 2396.7 S1.1 billion, excluding the assumption of sheet should not cause too much concern. Although the company has taken on
lD01 54~1 140.8 T54.1 673.5 2B2O.5 about $325 million in debt.
The company seems set for another
a hefty amount
of debt to finance
lIIG2 650.4 689.8 Tl8.4 653.0 m1.6
year. Indeed.. the above nwnerous acquisitions over the last couple
_
7IG 18.
.511 'IV
345ll record-breaking
_
8JlJ
JIG 104S .IG
ffl. atxJ.u1siUon Is in keeping wilh Constellaof years. we look for SIT to use an expectdon's strategic obJectJves of improving Its ed uptlck in cash flow to trlm Its long-term
~K:aI
EARMNGSPERSHMEA.
F..top- and botton-line growth rates, broadendebt over the mmlng years.
a'::" I .. 31 AIIII.31 NoY.3I F,b.2I
ing its geographic reach. and lncreaslng its This stock is a strong choice for year2000
.24
.35
.47
.24
1.30
The oombined ahead relative price and eanli:ngs IDOlD01
.28
.41
.56
.32
1.57 compet1tJve advantage.
And based on the strong toplIIG2
.40
.53
.69
.44
~07' entity Is now the world's largest wine com- mentum.
growth we envisJon
_
.Q
.6%
.11 .51 UD pa:ny, with powerful market posJtfons In and bottDm-llne
_
.55
.71
.81
.11
U. the U.S., the U.K.. and Australia, with a through 2006-2008, these shares offer
strong platConn from which to build its ex- enticing appreciation potential over that
talQUARTBl.LY DlVlJEND$ PAIl
Full
port business in other key markets. What's
period.. During the next few years, srz's
mdar lIar.'1 Jun.30 Sell.3D Dtc.31 y..,
more, prior to ~e close of the BRL Hacdy fortunes are Ukely to benefit from strong
deal, srz ftnished ofT ftscal 2002 (ended demand in the U.S. and abroad, additional
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
Feb[l.lary 28) with an impressive 32% price hikes. and increased demand for fine
BBNG PAIl
lD01
surge in year-over-year share net, thanks,
wines, the highest-margin division in the
lIIG2
in large part, to strong demand from the company's lineup.
company's three major growth drivers.
Kenneth A. Nugent
May 9. 2003
(A) EJ:d. emse tues Unli '95, fiscII yr nornQI'. geilsl{losse$l: '94, (91,); '95, (1Oj); *d: spIta. (E) STZ wm:t.cI tan UFO 'I:l CGmpDY'Flnl:n$I
B
IiIIIlHd Aug. 31st BII9I1I'111'lg
n '96, rlSQll yr. '91, (17,); '98, (69); '99, (17,); '02, 12" Nut FIFO eccounting .. rI liscal 1998 yeiftftd.
SlDck'1 Prlct StablIitJ
75
ends last ClayrI Fab. of hi fDbnng caL yr. egs. rpl dllll .m June. (C) Ind. i1Iang.: In '01: 1998 qu.wly
IiIPlI 18StM11d. (F) 2002 IPS
PrIca Grawth PllraistHQ
7t)
ANNUAL RATES
d~(pIr1tl1
Sales

Pal
11Yn.
21 0%

Put Est'd ~'D1


5Yn.
tu ....
20.5%
5.5"
27.0%
13.""
24.5%
-M1

.c:.

'1.:'

,.

--

strn_

(8) PrWn. sin. tl rllSC.'92; thendlulBd. E!cl.

va.e

$1102.1 mil, $12.38IsII. (D) In d,

m..

C 2111],
liIe NIin'llI.
AI ...,
,.,...
rMillll ~
THElUlUmISMJrRr$PQMSIllEJ:ORNlY'RRORSOROIISSKlHSHRW.
III l-.y lie ......
-*!. _lid 1III.........
1nJ II"*d-

*'*"*

is ClIllIiIII!ld
l1li

lIIw .....

IltII'II ~

Idj. fur

doesnl lOll duem change iI sharM out.

~D be miIIIe

..

II ,.,...

n.~.*dJb-..x.n_,lIllftmN
_

.. ~

IIII......

.., ,_._--~~.

IIIJ....,

l1li

1IIdri:

.....

...-.s ..IIIJ

__
....

U1d.
iI'Il.""-,Woplll
SIniz. prodII:1

~Eemlnp Pl'I'di:trbwty

70

I'.

,f f.

'f

COORS (ADOLPH) IB' NYSE.RKY

5..45
28.19

U1
4.05
28..96 28.15

8.08 9,46
29.20 29.33

;,c.bU

JtJ.61

J7.~

18.

15.

;.sb~

18.6

3.

(lOLL)

CaSh Ass8tS

~~FO)

PlI)'IIbM
Dett Due
Other
CurT8n1 Liab.
Ac:ds

i!J.l

11DMl
535311pf
.,
I!lAJI:l 13 2('oiln"tll)
fU REL\1M
Pi!lAJI:l o 81'I YID 1.5%
Iftdi.,:

3.06 3.15 4.18 3.84 1.11 1.64 2.85


18.17 16.54 17.59 1829 fUIT 1U!1 21.''''
7.1

~.3

38.

38.

iU.5

14.2

JIi.utI

31lfl

366
22.92

4.28
25.84

36.

6.19 6.59
26.042 llffl

1.10

au

llO C~~~gl*'th
J10! BoolYM ....

.01.3.3

170
45.15

anmonShlW1lli

I:

15.8 '5.1
19.1 211
19.2 171
116 Bald
~_
AvaArm'PltRdo
1.21
117
1.41
1.06
1.48
1.23
111
.93
1.31
.99
.90
.99
121
1.25
.88
.74
~
uR*tiwtPlERdo
~1% ~6% 2.5% 2~% 2.'%
~6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% ~6% 10K
1.5% 12% 1.2'10 1.4% 1.3%
...;. A'1lAnn'lIv'dr...
CAPrTAL STRUCTURE aof 121311112
1581.8 1662.7 1675.4 11322 1822.2 1899.5 2056.6 2nU 2.29.5 3n6.3
4DOCI 42. s.I_!W) A
Tatal Debt $1527.4 mill. Qua in 5 YI'I. $670.4 ml.
12.4% 12.9% 1121 12.0% 12.8" 12.6'4 13.2f. 1U%
12.2,. 141% 110'% 110" 0Dnina linin
LTl'-btSl383.4ma.
LTlnNrntSl00.0mill
119.0
120.8
fZ2I
121.1
1172
115.8
1.23.8 129.3
121.1
2XI.3
D6
us DIJRddon(h.)
~~~x)i'Tt&resI83I118d:4.7X;kJtal~~~~,)
33.-4 -48.04 33.9 -47.1 68.5 79.4
96.0 11-4.5 119.6 165.6
155
1M NIIPro&lIS
.. ln
Lusel,UnClpbRzad:Annual.rentil5$17.8nil
.92% ~.1% 41.6' 42.1' 40.6% 39.1% 38.6% 38.0-11 31.9% 31.Q14 3I.~ .'"
nccn.TaRall
Pen.IonAsMts-1~2$1617.4ml.
2.11
2.9'
2.01
2.7'4
3.8% -4..210 4.11. 0'
-4.9'
4.'
U"
(2% NIIPnltUI"
f'fdStod: None
Oblig.$2199.0mi.
72 d25.0 38.1 12.1 158.0 165.1 220.1 118.5 88.9 d94.0
5.11
115 WonIrIgCIp' l$nll)
CommCMI
Stoet. 36,:M1,35hhs. (42%cfCap'Q
175.0 131.0 195.0 176.0 1045.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 20.0 1383.4 1205 10X! Lang.:T~ ~ ISnlll)
(Incl1,260,OOOCI. AvlJlingsh!l Bnd35,081,353
631.9 6742 695.0 715.5 736.6 n4.8 841.5 932.4 951.3 911.9 1010 1205 Shr. EIIUttV (wi
CL B IIOlTKlthg1tIs.),
5.31
7.'"
UI
&.0%
8.5"
9.51 10.4% 11.3% 12.4%
8.51
1.-",
1~ Rdlm CIJ T~ CIP"
ool'2I2II03
5.3\
72\
4.9\
6.6% 9.3% 1021 11.04' 1Ut.
1~6'
16.9\ 14.5% 110% RnnanShr.ENtv
MARKET
CAP:Sz.2 blUlon(1IJd ClIp)
2.31 -4.3' 2.1\
3.9\
6.5"4 7.04'"
8.61 9.41
9.51 13.81 11.5% 11'" RItIiMd., CGIItEq
CURRENTPosmoN
2000
z001 12131102 571
-40,
56'
-40%
30%
28'
25'
23'
25\
18'
1'"
,''' AlDiv'dIIDNttPral

=:~

14.3

IRECENT
II'flICE

309_7

592

197.7
_.

181.6
379.3

222.5
85.0
210.0
517.5

AdoIpt1 Cn Conperry is 1M! lIiId-longest


bnMIlr ('02 stlipnerrts: about 31.8 ~L bbts.J. Has tIQe d~i:

1~::
3304.6 Man! tnnds: CoIn, Coon: I.igIrl, 1;.~0fI9, 1;8)'SIonll
I(j.
144.0 link tIIh R8d, am lim.. Spun aI'I" ACX Tf!dInobQiIs, tnc.. to
669.3 Coo
1147.8
n' bottom line came under consid-

pressure during the March inANNUAL


RATESPast
PDt Est'd""'12 terlm. The company rEported a saUd J J %
~=lQli(pll"~1
year-over-year
tnc::rease in sales. with
''CIlSh FJaw"
6.0% 12.5%
8.5"
volume
up 6.3%. oornparecl. to the year~ago
figure. A lion's share of this good news was
BodtV8IuIi
0.5% 7.0% 11.0"
attributable to an additional Rve weeks of

~rc:
1~:~:
'~g:

1'~~"
~rs".,

.~ 1Iu~~~S';;.~~.

.Ill
50Ill
f.l'"
Z3S

ZJtI
2l~
U"
5111
105
1170
11.~
1U"
110%
14.0"

shanlhoklln, 12192.'02 clepr. 1iIt8: 7.0-.. Ha about 8,100 STlI!.,


Mt owns fOCl'Aid dnI 'A' (VDtiIg)

l,963 shrtlkn. Coors ~

l.rto KiBIy
III.Inc.: Colorado. AdlbIs: Golden, CO B0401.TIIIl:303219-6585. InIomet www.coon.com

challenges that came about during the


first quarter. such as lower U.S. dlstrlbutor inventories
and higher interest
expense. are unlikely to reccur during the
remainder
of 2003. Although
the company
financed a simble pordon of the above acquisltion, RKY has made signlficant head-

$~::;msm:~o'~'72~eb~:

was acquired early in February of


2IGO 505." 669.1 657.1 582.1 24U." 2002. However, eanling&
tumbled to a
2011 543.7 692.7 634.7 558." 2429.5 mere $0.02 8 share, as 8 veritable
plethonl
2002 8ZB.
7.45.8
1047 1001 981.1 _
3776.3 of factors took a heavy toll on RKYs share
ZOO!
t tll11.' llUS 108
2DDC
1170 ""
,.
4240
net. Notably, reduced profits related
to
c....
EAlUl*GSFERSIUREAll
lower Americas' shipments to wholesalers
.ndar Mar.P.rJun.PerS'D,PerDtc.Pt
~:
-the result ofexr::ess inventorywere ex.P.:=-f''''ii=:;:::~=='-='7.?''t-';;;;irl acerbated by a Significant first-quarter
2ODO .40 1.43
.83
.40
3.06 snowstonn
in Colorado.
What's more,
ZOI1
.49 l.:t:I
.95
.48 122 higher interest and pension expenses and
2001 .80 1.83 1.28 .62 4.53 a seasonal loss for the first five weeks or
2003 .02 1.10 1.5.2 .M (JCJ the year in the U.K. busJness
helped
.42 103 I.SO .10 4.'5 dr
ed d
c...
QUARlERLYDNilENDSPAI!c Full
agg
own net income.
.ndu lIarJ1 Jun.305'11,30o.cJ1 Year But we are opt:iJnistic
about the COlDpany's prospects for the balance of
1191 .15 .165 .165 .165
.65 the year, U.S. sales-to-retall trends In the
2000 .165 .185 .185 .185
.72 March interim indicate that Coors' new
::
.165 .205 .205 .205
:
advettlslng and promotion campaign Is be2OG3 ::
.205 .205.2115
gtnnlng to bear fruit. And many of the

eannarked for such purposes this year. In


additJon, Qlst initiatives
throughout
the
company should continue to boost prod.uctJvihl.
while RKYs high ftxed-co:st lever'J'
age and volwoe. gains are likely to help 11ft.
year-end operating macglns. All told, we
look for COOrs to post 2003
eamtngs of
about $4.30 a share, down $0.70 from our
earlier
estimate,
with roughly
a 15%
share-net advance the following year.
Based on recent price and eanrlngs
momentu~
Coors stock is ranked to
1a th b
d
k
g
e
roa
er mar
et over the next
year. However. thanks to our projections
of dOUble-digit sales
and earnings growth
Ulrough 2006-2008.these shares offer
strong capital-appreciation
potential over
that period.
Kenneth A. Nugent
May 9. 2V03

(A) Exd. exci!lllu:es. FisCal yr. ends last Sun- '93, d$1.9B; '84, 25; '98, d10; '97, 36;"IB, dale ft We May. ApPl1*- pmnl datlJs: 1511 rI~
~pany'.
Fmancild Shtsgtlll
day in Dee. (91 BBSlld on ng. tIs. tIWDUgh d31; '99, d10; '00, d13: '01, d9; '02. d11. M-=h, Junct, Sept., Dee. (D) Ind. intang. '02:
Pries S~b11ty
'96, dlullld ...,....
Em. net fICd1ICCI'".
ud diIc:. opa.: '92. d18f. Nm:I. egs. rpt duI S12S6.Z rri/l, $34.35jlah. (E) In m"
Pries Growtfl p.~
Iems: '89, d71; W, d5O; '91, 22; '82,~;
mil
y. (e) Nul djy'd ntg.1ete May. Nm:I.u (F) '9211lS1a1ed b spnofr 01ACX T8Ch.
Earnings PrHicbblllJ
ZDDJ. VIlle lile NlI!IImQ. n:. ". .... ' .-..:I. ,~
~ ...
r- -..ce5 bIIieIeII ..
.-I is
~
.. .., tlnc.
THEP\8USfERlSM),~~TCJRNf'!fRR~ORC*I~SHRW.
Th5.......
~IIi:IJIar~~ilOllCQll
r .... *'PMt
'
,
",
: II:
lie ... DGlad.Ie5lld.Ibed
.. ~
II IIlJ pdId. .......
II _
b ...
u
~
.......
da:hr* ~
WID .. pIlIIu:I.

Stoer.

be"'"

111_..,

1.15

1n
:=~
:':;ut

~: ::f~t~.
~e Y~~~s
~

f-!.i:~-F.""'~""~~~-7.""""t.;-E;-Jwhich

fU

U.S.
~~'rr~'1BUStlES!:
4:;:: ~~
~~~,\:;#l=,~~~d;.~:
=I:r;':~~~~~.~':'~~
Ug"",
192.5

~~:~

17.=-'7'='::=--:::---"=-=-=~=~:=1erabJy

=..:s

JMCI

19.6

...,..-o ..

B+
7S

15
80
II.

CORN PROD.INT'L.

29.881~oo16.3(~r:::~n
~~ 1.01 ~ 1.3%

High;
low;

32.0
28.9

39.5
21.8

35.3
21.6

31.9
19.0

37.0
24.5

34.8
23.8

31.5
27.1

LEGENDS
6.D1"CI!iht ...
p!ll
. RdIIiwe Pri:e ShrigII

-:. m::.s

CAPlTAL Sl1WCTlIRE aot3IJ1R!


latal

Debt

.-.-

S1S,O mil

Cammon SbxII: 37,8S9,lJ87 sirs

_.",.cap: 11.1 blJDOft(llid C.p)


CURRENTPOSrTlON 2001
2002

Ca:-~
Receivables

~~
(UFO)
CUl11!ntAsSClb
~~bIe

41.0
274.0
232.0
55::~

llD'S3DI

.-

$664.0 mil. D.... In 5 YrII $500.0 m"

LT Dl:bI $580.0 mi.


LT ~
(Total i"ItIInm: COV8'J!le: 2.5lI)

IREM
IPRICE

NYSE-cpo

65.0
279.0
201.0
5~g

3131103
39.0
262.0

~g

~:g~g

..

..

.
.,

.,
.,

.
.,

.'
..

...
.....

..

1135.0 1865.0 1887.0 187D.9 ,,,,


21M
ZJSD
16.0% 16.'"
14.1% 14.5" 15.0% 15.1%loo.rdna.....
15.51
122.0 135.0 127.0 136.0 U5
ut O_~
I~.I
155
nlJ
61.0
57.0
62JJ
75.1J flU NelPrvIl,""
110
35.4' 35A
35.3' 36.0"1. 25.17% 2,5.0%Inctllllf Tu RI1t
15.01
4.4%
3.3'10 3.0% 3.3% 3.1"
.("" Nit
., 147.0 1173.0 ro.O 11.0 69.0 d120.0 1!87~
dI5 dJD W_aCa!>'!l"'iJ)
:lID
.. '''.0
13.0 '54.0 322.0 453.0 312.0 '25.0
175
'50 Long:T
... -1100II)
10.0
.. 1025.0 986.0 1053.0 1027.0 960.0 857.0 '3(0
170
1t5 Shr.mlltvl .... 1
llJO
. 2.3~ 1.6'
3.81 6.3'
5.3'\0 5.9% 7.0% ,,""
I"" Ran an TutIII_C~_' U~
.
2.2'
1.1, 4.1'
1.5% 6.4\
6.711. 6.S% 7,5% t.~ RlbnanShr.EIIUIIV
9.5%
_ 2.2%
1.1% 3.8% 6.2"
4.9%
4.0%
5.0% 1.1'"
1,5" RItIiMd to Con Eq
'.0%

7\
1710 23%
40%
25%
ZO%
11% AI OIY'dsto Nil Pn:If
1'"

..

Pnllt......

(5Wches, -l1Z)'II'IBS,

5.1"

cons. sales, 39% or proI"ds. z001 DepruciatiDn I'D 5%. Has 6,000
emplo)W!S, 21,000 shIretIoIdIrs.
Barclly Globel Investors, N.A.,
5.9% of conmon stDct; ofIi:8nIdlec:tln, B.B%(:w3 ~).
Chli"-

BUSWESS: Com Products lmem;tliona~ Inc., one d the woRfs


largest cqn refiners, produces hlgh-qlJ._1ity food ingredients (high
fnJctoIe, g~,
BrIl fTIiIltJse CO'1I 1)'IUpIS)and induDilll pnxIuds

2:l:8
:::m~0=.,~
517.0

I:W-~! .

15UO 1418.0 '448.0


9.4% 10.6% 11.41
.
".0 l03n 95.0

23.0
11.0
4J.D
., 32.4' &1.0' 3521

Ul
.81
3.()II.

.-

=ts.=-':2J:n:~:::2~~1l::=~~~~

co-pmdUds) derived iDm th8 wet miJing '"

:::---;:-~.=::::g7-:::~~~:;g==325~~:;10

ScoII.

Inc.
11. ~: ~708'
6050 T
1. B __
Rl:

mln, Presid8nt IInCI CEO:..~~pC.

POtin

5tedd double-dlglttlnsales Igro~:.~el


,~.;::::"";;nt:-:"'
::;"',,,
Com ProdUutcls
lndternapltiona!
expectthls bgiUSIr:
strong
res ts.
es te
con
ue
ness to con
ue mpro. "6
n
re on
ANNUAL
RATESPat
Put Est'd... 01 trouble
in Mexico. The company's March
as the weather gets wanner and the comIn..... S1'II.
__
quarter, traditionally Its slowest earnings
panYHFblCtssits
pe~ sea~n. As such,
"Cash Flaw"

_.
of.OK period, was up 65%, compared to the same for
sho
at ~t
n:maJn so .
Eami1gs

8.5"
time last year. This perlormance was en- Meanwhile
trends in South
America
hanced by sidestepping the continuing tax should continue to improve from last year,
burden on its hiRh fructose corn syrup when sales were hurt by currency devaluatallI'JARTaL1S.llfSJlIAj
F.II (HFCS) sold In Mexico (more below). For lions (particularly
In Argentina
and Bra....
1Iu.31 JUIL30s8D.J1l DK.31 Y_r now though, we look for share-net gains of zit). For the first quarter. safes were up
444.0 413.9 479.3 ~.B '865.0 2ll%-25% for the nexl couple of years; we over 7% compared to 2002. Elsewhere,
2001 454.3 482.2 474.3 476.2 1887.0 have therefore left our 2003 share-net es- Asia and Africa showed the highest per_
2002 431.9 486.2 480.1 472.1 'B70.9 tlmale of $2.00 untouched and have Introcentage galn (16%) In sales, and remain
2D03
479.4
475
m _
1130 duced 2004 earnings estimate of $2.40.
the
company's
best
opportunities
Cor
_
5lll
415 4I5J
505
EARNINGS
PER
SIlARA
Mexico continues
to be a sore spot for growth. In fact, Com Products recently
c.t- "lr,31 Jlln,. Sep.31 DKJ1 ~::~ the company. The MCJdcan government
opened a TapJoca plant in Thalland.
_ncIar
continues to enforce its legislation to pro- These
neutrally
ranked. shares
hold
.47
.55 .36 .34 1.n teet the country's sugar growers from Im- Jess-than-average
appreciation
poten2001 .36
.43
.45 .26
LID ported com syrup.
Due to the 20% tial for the 3, to 5-year puu. And 81.23
.52
.48
.40
Mexican tax on HFCS, Com Products did though we expect
respectable top- and
21m
.38 .sa
.55.fT
not sell any of its product In Mexico 10 the bottom-line growth, a volatile commodities
_.45.55.10.10
QlMRlBll'DftIJfIGSPAD. 1M recent quarter. The tax is be Ileved to cost
mar ket (Ith
corn
5
e companys 'k ey raw

-rs:-

;::V-(PW'"
=-V:-Iue

::::

prtc::;r

~~

i:

.:,
11. 31 JUh.30 Sep.3D Dlc.31 :~~
1119 .08
.08 ,08 .10
.34
20DD .10
.10 .10 .10
.40
2001 .10
.10 .10.10
.40
2tIlI2
.10
.10 .10.10.40
2003
.10

~:~re~

hi~~~~
::
~~~~_
stable foreign currencIes In some of CPO's
key South American markets, add risk to
our proJections.
Ceo rge. Y. Lee
M.ay.9 200'3

~
~~~;mated
$35 million to
Prospects
for
sales
growth
are
sweeter
in other parts of the world.
North America (not including Mexico) saw
ved pricing. as reIl ected in th e Iow
impro

CA) D~
shareS. ElcUdIs nol'nlCl8lWlg (6) Nut divitfJnd IIIIIIflting miHlay.
Go8I ellgallsl(\0ss8s): "97, (12.41); '00, (SO.3n; '01, dlYMnd end of JUM. oivmend paymenls
$0.10: "02, $0.14. Next 8II11ingsrapall due ElIUncl.. 25th'" Jal'L, Apr., July, Del.
mii-July.
ee) In mlmnl.

(D) PID ftrn8 fllJIRS b

1996 and 1997.

.. ,....

SlrnlI .. ~

Ill'"

b .. III

gth

_Earnl.

~..:t=~~'=I

~~~~~t~s:.rrcm:E'~~R:~~~=-ise::.,be~is~~
.....
m-n
in., ...-. ~
1I5eII. ,....-..g ..uIiIg pIi*d .. 1I!dIrri: ~
III ..,.

CCIIIIIlany's FIh.ndll ....


Stock'_ Pnc. St8b11tlJ
Prica GrvwtIl PersIstMtc8
Prrllctlbllity

My

,..-,g IIIpllN:l.

I",

8++
80

40
50

:11:

II',

DARDEN RESTAURANTS NYSE.ORII~CW 19.431~1Il14.4(~;~~)WJ%0.86 ~ 0.4%

WtUIlESS

wm

TECHNICAL
~

4
2
3

lDRItdWJ3
RMed~WZ

i:a:z =-W2P1i::~

lhi5.td5lDJ1

.&0 (I.Dll .. 1UU)

Priu
GMt
!Uih 45 (~13D%'
L.cM
30
\+55%i
Insider Declslan.
JASONDJFII!;,.
"1Iy
0 0 0 0 0 0

RIturn
Z.."
12%

St(ll~

1';."".

.-;-~

0 0 0 "1'1;-.

IS

gf

I"
-+--t--i--t-;;;;rotl"lr.--f""""iinf--t---f'---t--t--+---t--t--+--t--+,

2JZ3ID3

Cammon StOCll.168,316,192 shl.


uof4111l13
IIARKET CAP: 51.3 blUlon (liid Cap)
CURRENTPOSmDN
z001
2002.
ReOSl'vilbles

~~:~

iIlbIes rectWlll

TotlIIIl OI:bI $658.6 mil. Dull .. 5 Vrs $447.5 mi.


LT Delli $658.6 mil.
LT nt.rat $45.5 ml.
(TotaIln!!lrest amnge: 9.&)
(35% '" Cop'~
lAuD,
UnCipitllzed Annual rentals $52.0 mil
Pension UAbility S1.6mll. il "02 WlISLlS 52..8 mi.
in '01.
Pfd stock None

~:~

f","]

~311110400:

CoI:-~

~~

sh

0I*Jns:"Ye

2006-01 PROJECTIONS
~.u
"""'I Total .;t'

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE

I C~~: ~:~ ~:g :j '~:~~~


1~~

- LEGE-NDS
,0.0 r "tntl r. p

sa
32.9

ZI23ID3

162.8
29.1

124.7
29.8

2}~:~
444.9

~
(FIFO)
CunentASll8ls

19.~

1~

32a1

449.5

Accts P.J8"'Debt. Due

156.9
14.7

160.1
_.

189.2
-

1993
.

1994

.
..
.

.
.-

..
..

..
..

I
II
1111
1995 1996 .997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
13.36 13.49 13.82 15.53 17.45 20.19 22..84 25.38 27.55 2UO
1.03
1.D7
.83
1.08
1.32
1.66
1.95
2.34
1.50
170
AS
50
.23
.46
.64
.87
1.06
1.29
1.13
1.50
.

U1
US

..
-

ab.~

151
1.1)2

115.7

124.7

1185

123.1

.00

>0
5.11

.05

.111

.c.1t

.05

.05

,05

.05

.05

b3
4.82

.62
4.86

W
524

202
5.88

1.85
6.56

"j;JtJ57 za,t.49 L1'.'


15..6
242
11.5
.98
1.39
.91

1
19.0
1.08

13.9

17 . 1
13.6
.71

1
17.3
.92

.01

~..
7.a
11S.
~~
-

Ii

5 yr.

!lU

23.8

~VA1llEl.IlEf'llII
IIC.

SIIeI.-""

CuhRor',.-1h
Eninglpwlhlll
Dh'daDKl'dpll'thC.

"'OS
150
.10

U.5 C",'I Sp0nd;08'" III


140 Book VIIue..-1II
~_

AVIIAnn' ..ttRdo
R*tIn PIE Rdo

"

.90
L.N
.4%
.4%
.4%
2%
... ''ll Annn .... VIoId
2737.0 2963.0 3163.3 3191.8 3171.8 3287.0 3458.1 3701.3 4021.2 4368.7
4155
49JO Wa~)A
11.8% 11.4% 10.0% 10.8% 1.4% 8.1% 102% 11.4% 1t9% 12.9% IZ..5lI fUll o-oh.l_

38.2% 36.4"
4.3'
42'4
d105.4
d97.5
4.0
3.9
1211.4 1407.3
9.fI%
8.7%
9.8'
8.7114
9.fI"
8.7%

."

.91

."

135.5

134.6

136.9

126.3

106.3

1192

31.9% 36.8"
3.4"
3.7"
d20!H d157.3
303.a
301.2
1174.0 1222.6
fI.,2'4
8.3"
9.~
9.7'
92%
a.7"

111

125.3

130.5

146.9

165.8

.1.3 1111.1 135.3 113.1 '91.11 2362


27.R 33.8" 34.81 35.4"
34.6'
)4,51
1.~
3.'"
d143.2 d161.2
313.2 310.6
1081.2 1019.8
4.6'1.
8.4'.4

5.0% 10.0'
3.91
231

a.8'
11'

3.91
4.71
d206.5 d316.4
314.1
304.1
964.0
960.5
11.4"
14.5%
14.0% 18m\.
12.9'
17.0%
8"
61

BUSINESS: O.,;jen RBSiMnnb.. [nc. (spun oft tom Genenll Mis


5195) is fhe WOOlf' lwgesl casual dnilSl opemor. wih 1,236 una
il 49 U.S. am llIdClfllda (37) aiD 11102).
0pIr.rtes two IIIiIJCI
thllllS:R~ l..DbstJI' (S8IIfood; 670una; i!'fg. check, $14.50).nd
n. Olive Ganfen (!llI1ian 100d; 507 una; awg. check, S12.00t. aim
operiIC8s 32 B8/JfJmfI &eez. una 8IId 27 SmoAq Booes BBQ. A1

4.9"

d226.2
517.9
1035.2
13.4"

5.4"
d151.5
662.5
1128.9
14.1'

19.0" 20.9'
18.1"
~%

20.1%
4%

flO

UI
37.50

U'
11~
.DD
15.1
1.OG

"'"
...
It'"

flO DIp"ICidQn(hll

1411 ;W NtlI'n>ItN
u,OS U,OX mean. Tu RIll
5.1%
5.4% NIl~1l"qIn
dUD
dJOG WOfIdIlgClp'II"'lj

4Zf
U,DI

155
1225
1.(0%

.,
21.50
1151
".51

MO Long.T.-nlDlbl(NI

1310 stir.
fU" RnnanToWC.,
11.5" fl."' Rnn onSIr. Em6
11.5% fl.5" RI1IIMd" Call Eq
'"
5X. AlDtI'dUllNIIPraf

7.0%

DDO

f.n
ft

FYE '02, 64% at sIes were DWnlId 100 rest 18aed. "02 deprIc.
ra1s: 5.3%. Has abt. 133,200 employ.; 38,027 1trlIkh. of record.
0Ifden Svgs. Plan c/o NMI. Exp". R8tiI owns 8.3% rI COImIOII;
Barcia)'!!
GlobllllMlSl, 8.0%. 01 . nd di'. a.m 5.5'1 (Ml2 Praxy~
Chii'. & CEO: Joe R lee. Inc.: FL Adm".: 5900 lak8 EII:I101"1:mB,
Q1;Indo, FL 32809. T... : 407-245-100. WlItl:www.dEIltnJDll.

382.7 ~601.0 ...!!


554.3
666.0 W e ha ve ~--~
...........an=u sa1 es expectations
ment. With sa!es growth now s lowing an d
r.;=':;;::~;:;---;;::i'=-;;:~;:;;O-;;2.;i for Darden. We believe the company will unit costs risIng. due to hIgher insurance
::::~~s
,:;:
::
~~IIZ
continue to experience slower year-overpremiums and natw'al
pr:Ices. we habe
SaJes
_ 11.0"," 8.5"
year sales growth over the next several cut back our share-pront expectations y
'~FIoW'
_.
15.0% 125"
quarters. Red Lobs/els April comparable
$0.07, to $1.33, for 8scaI 2003. Assuming
~~
::
22.0%
sales were flat. Although check averages
current negative factors persist. we have
Book Vltue
_.
grew 2%-3%. guest count decllned by trimmed our Bscal 2004 earnings estimate
FIelII ClUARTERLYSAWISIIIlJ"
Fill rou~Y the same amount. The Olive Gar- for the restaurant
by $0.13. to $1.50.
Ia
PlrNoY.P"Flb.Per
"_p_
dens
comp-sales
were
down
1%
dUring
the
The
restaurant
operator's
long-tena
Illl
r.;,",,-j""'";T'~rr"im."T.-~"rl~;#m
month, despite a 4%-5% hike in prices to prospects appear
good. Its two newest
929.4 &18.2917.5 10062 ::.3
offset a decllne In restaurant tnlffic. The ventures, Smokey Bones BBQ and Bahama
sluggish results were attributable. in part. Breeze. are meeting with much success.
2103 174.6 1071.51181.41221.5 .;;;.,
to fewer promotional efforts. We now antiManagement
has accelerated
its rollout
20N 13$ "15 1m 1m <IUD
clpate the company will report comp-sales schedule.
The mmpany
has also started
growth on the order of 2%-3% for fiscal
testing its new SeSSOllS 52 healthier foods
~I
EARlMGSPERSHAREM/~
2003 (ended May 25th). down from the concept in a single location. Early success
EIKIa
~1III.P"Hav.PerF.b,"rIllyPIlV.. , 3%-5% that management had originally
here is promlslng. but any rollout would be
2DOO .23 .12
.24
.28
.87 thought possible. SaJes comparisons in the at least two years off.
21111 .31 .16 If
.33 1.06 first half of fiscal 2004 may also prove un- Darden shares hold above-average
aplllD2
.34
.19
.36
.411 1.29 exdtlng,
although
the tompany
remains
peal for the pull to Z006-200B.
Near2DD3 .40 .21 .35 .37 1.33 optimistic about the underlying strength
tenn prospects for the stock. are less In.40
.23
.39
."
Ufl 0 f t h e casu al d tntng sector.
Investors
QUARTER1.YDNl>EJltSPAlic.
Full
spIring. h owever.
s tI1I appear
lu.31 Jun.30 Se~ Dtc.31 V.. , Near-tenn
share earnings.
too. will fairly cautious because of the tough operar.;~+""''--''''''O'.';'''''''''"-''!~t-';;;'-j
probably
compare
poorly to year-ago
ling environment
ahead of the company.
1999 ..
.027 _.
.an.05
levela. The impressive earnings trend In Darden stock is ranked to underperform
.m
-.rt!l.05
recent years was supported by a consistent
the broader market averages over the next
2002
.rm
.027.05
top1ine perfonnance.
rising restaurant
six to 12 months.
ZOO3~~
:~..
.04 .07
productivity. and a favorable mst env:lron- ~ren
Thorpe
June 13. 2003
IA} Fi3131",. ends on bt b.Jt Sundly iI May sh.ns. Exd. nrxnaI. a.;n fa" nIShItU- ICJ DN'ds. pbt .ami4nnualy. Hart dwd. mty. CanplIr)"II Fbtlldal 5INnglll
A
at the ClIendar,...
(B) BUId on ng. Ih;ns mg.nd allS8l
'95. 25; 1J6, 1St!; ill liids SIIJll Next u-d1tB in lIIII1y Oct. DiY'd. StDck's Price stIbiIltr
70
Other Lieb.
CulT8nt

rs

15.0:
t~ n~

1.:

f=1

= ~:~1::~1::~~:::;~:~

=,

= _.

.innent:

through '97; diluild ..,.... QIrly. '9'. ITIIYnol '91,62. Exd.. norncur. !);Iil: '99, 2; '00, 2j; pqnent cs.1l'1S: Mil)' 1, Nor. 1. ONd. reilPIb GI'OWlh~""
SIIn kI annUli kIlal dUll i:l chang_ il ng. '02, 1j. Next egs. rvpor1 duB ~
Juna.
Y'8Sl plan IMitable. (0) In mil., adj.1or split
_eamlngl
c 2CIl3. VIIIle LN Nli5IlIII. Int. AI riQtb ..--.
JKtullIIIlIIIsiII i'l CItUftd ham tllUItCS ~
kI be rtiItR MIl a ptJIiIeII wlhiatt ...-s fi Ill]' tnl
TH PlIlUSiR IS NJT RESPot!SlBl.E lo~ lIlY 1UWRS OR at.aSSIClKs. H1IUt. TtB ~
is *dJ'''' -.....s _. _
_dIIl. ....
~. No pan
t
I
I "
all..,.1IpIIlIuad.
ft5lII:L And
*'*ri:.
Ill" IIItIlI b ~
1lI"..tIilIg IIIJ ...... Ill"
,...,.
M!'Ib Ill" prOlM1

~"IIIJ..-.s.

70
60

P.8dIctIbi.,
:

t I:

t,.

DEAN FOODS NYSEDF


1 ''''''1/J0l
3 Rai5ftllIIl9.I
3 RMWJ3

TIIEUJI[SS
SAfETY

TECHNICAL

,I

High:

low:

LEGENDS

10.4
7.0

31.3
9.'

33.5

12.8

25.5
14.8

26.2
18.0

4{).,

36.2
21.0

Nil

DMl
YID
".3
3...

27.1

ReI*tPr':e~

...."..."l'<~---1r--+--+--+--t----+---:I>""'-t.,.--It="<;:+--::J1iIJI"'-IY--+--+--+--r--+32
'"
'J>'n"'~-
,

2006-41PROJE~NS

iIlbfn

'&'5S.IIlII

I '."".'

1+85"" R.tum
,."'" '....:~

,II';.

~=:

J J A $ 0 iii 0

II'"

0 90

Hal'" lIflI 4102


Clc:lIiIm: YK

IITA .7D O.DO.MaIlet)

Price
Gain
High
..
l.lIir
55
+25%)
Inskler Decisiona

RELlTTIE
Pol RAm.

p!ll

7.D. CI!II F....

s
43 53' II~fRAm 14 5(rrOln
Medi,dllFI,U)

IIRECfNT
PRICE

24
20

J F

16

II

I'

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ..l~

12

::: ~~g~~~g:J~
Institutional D.clalona
JGtaI
:lQ2112 CII2
IIIIT
13'2
151
U9

l~,

7~

79J~

I~

1B
12

Percent

stun-

78~r,' Il'aded

Dean Foods Company (formerly Sui23


Foods) has gill"" ""inly Ilrough acquisitions of dairy companies since it was formed
in 1988.In April '96llloco01'jlany complated
a public oIfonng 01 3,795,000commoo f--+--+--..-+-.."..hCM'1hco;-1h-.rlh<rl----,.,.,-ih""hm-hm-~rr.:::::;,:="'=O::'+__.iiH
shBJ8sal $14.00each. In August '96 Illo
company sold 625,000shares for $9.7 million in a private placement 10 a single inyoslor. In Janu"'Y '97/he company said an addrtional 4,270,000shares of common stock
for $22.00each in a follow-<ln oIIonng.
c.vrrAl

STRUCllJR.E

a 01 t2/3tJ02

Tvtal DlbI: $3313.1 mi. DHIn 5 V,. $1455.0 mi.


LT D.bI $3139.7 mi. IT nter8t $220.0 mill.
Ind. $5852 mil nst ptI secLries, r:onv't IItl
8fJID: 15.3 mil. shins. f: (LT iJIeI2It samed: 3.OX;
toIal merest 1XM!I'lJ9I!: 2.b)
(66% of Cap1)
Luse, UnCllpltallDd Annlllllll8nb!1s $79.8 mill.
Pension AsMb-12,Q2 $125 mil Ob1lil. $261 mil
Pi:! S1rd' Nooe
Common Stoclr. 93,007,862 shs.
uo/312S113
Options Enn:lsatlleU%
URKET CAP: SU b1U. (liid Cap)
CURRENT

POSITION:ZOOO

Ca:~

2001

31.1
519.3
188.7
80.8
817.9

78.3
nS.8
440.2
187.9
1432.2

Other
Cull1lnl: Uab.

201.3
699.9

~
1175.0

=~bIe ~~
ca.

rn.

CD

28.0%
21.5%

22.5%
--

--

33.5%

lG01 1474
ZOO2 2226D

W5

".5"
12.",

12.5"
Nil
18.OK

llUAR1ERLYI.IlfS(hl.j
1".31 JudO
1394
1434

tndu

F'II

SepjO Dtc.31 Y....


1440
1480
5756

1527 1556 1673


22!J9> 223QD 2240
2Ull W5 ZJOII

6230
8901

2103

ZUO 2m

CaI'ndar

EAJNrlGSPERSHAREA
Filii
1tIar.31Jun.30 Sep.3D Dec,31 Y r
.36
.52
.51
.501 US
.41
.56
.48
.54
1.09

_
ZOO,

2012
2003
_

--

.56D
.0
.70

.760
.0

.n

ZJ(V

zm

.70D
.10
.10

.74
./1

.13

12110
W5

2.76
115
145

QUARTERLY DIV[IEND$ PAl)


Full
ndar 11,.31 Jun.30 StD. Dec.31 Yeu
Cal-

'III

NO CASH D1V1DENDS
BEING PAID

ZOO1

52D.9 1794.9 3320.9

4482.0

5756.3

6Z3D.1

8991.5

..

13S

1~4

44.5

1233

155.2

145.0

154.0

174.0

..

..

..

~ I ..,

II! ....

110

205 D.-cldon

..
..
'.
-.

..
.
.

..

2.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2""


21%
20% 3.1% Ull
till
26.8 1631 254.1 1603 118.0 31)71 43.0 d50.0 .,20
171.7 l26.T
m.t, 1576.0 13n.S 1809.1 3556.1 313!l.7 ZMf
ISla
8.5
Sl5 35!1.3 655.1 .... 0 5!lll.1 '475.. 1643.3 'H5
2300
9.8% 7.3% 72"
6.S"
8.3'
1.8% 3.8"
8.'% S.'"
15"
84.3'4 15.8' 18.'\
15.7'4 20.5' 20.'%
8.5% 17.0'4 1l!l% 1l~
84.3'
15.8"
1BJ1.4 15.7% 20.51 20.110
B.5"
17.0'
110% 1l5%

".6

01

0\

is the leading Unilerl Slates mant!flcttnr


and dlstriJutor of
.... h milt and reIaB:I eIIiry p1XIuc:b and aBo i& lelidl!!l" ., the
speciality foods iKlURy. Sua lCIluQd OMn FoocIs in Dec:8mber
d 2001 III'Id then dian~ its naml to Dean Foods. Sold Rflddy
ICII, thl!IlIrgest pacbged-t::e mnpIIII)' il tile U.S . Apri 1998 Md.'
lion)

1ftIIJI}

1""_)

Nil

Hif

Not... "'_
W..... sCap'llnll)
Long-TemlJlllt ($rill)
Sh,'-",,",llnIil
Rnn l'IIITWIClip'
Rnxn an Shr. Eouilr

t7ll
dJO,O
114#
3535
1G.51
'4.0%

RminldklCl'Il'IIEq
All DlY'd. ta NIt Pn:II

14.0%
HR

27,600 employ8e5. 2002 depl'8dlnon


rate: 8.3%. OfrDn & Dnattn own 6.8% or cormon stock; FMR Corp . 13.2% (4103 paxy).
Chalrnan and CEO: GI8lII LEngEL
IncmpcnIBd: o.n.e. Addre!>s: 2515 McKilney Avenue, Su~ 1200, Dalas, TIUBS 75201.
TelephorMl: 214-303-3400.
Internet www.delonfOlXlS.IDIl.

~~~~~~~~~!"''!!:~..''::~~~~~..2~~~~~~~''!!~~~~~~''-..,...-~

Dean Foods is reaping


cost-savings
products. Hershejs milks and ml1k.shakes.
benefits from the Dean-Suiza merger.
Land 07..aJces lactose-free mt1ks. and FolIn 2002. It had merger~related savings of ger's JaJc.ada coffee and m1lk beverages.
over S 100 million ow~ to WQrkforre re- The company intends to follow that up
duet1ons, purchasing effidencies. manufac.With outlays of some 5190 milllon this
tWing
synergies.
and
pension
and year, and plans to spend another $30 mJIdepreciation savings. The company hasn't lion to market Its regional daily brands.
fln1shed its efforts. through, and is aiming We look for good annual share-net
for annual savings of $150 mUllan by the gains into the latter
years of the
end of 2004.
deca.de~ TnJe, the retaillng environment
But the merger's benefits go beyond
Is tough, and the dairy Industry Is mature,
cutting costs. The new company's natlonwith little or no growth. But Dean's efforts
wide scope should help It win addltlonal
expand sales of branded products and
business. The retail food distribution In- its ability to market to naUonal ~taUers
dustry Is consolidating into giant national should allow it to post modest top-line
operations. Those companies want to do gains over the years ahead. And raw milk
business with suppliers, such as Dean, prices so far this year have declined from
that can delivery goods of consistent qualJ- 2002's low levels. They may well start to
ty across the United States. What's more,
rise in the second half of the year, but the
Dean's direct store delivery system using company's cost-1..lttlng efforts and its
refrigerated. trucks could also be utilized to ability to pass higher prices on to custom
distribute other goods. either produced byers
should offset any increases .
Dean Of' other manuCactUN:rs.
We like Dean shares.. They carry our
The company also is investing in new highest rank for relative year-ahead per~
products.
Last year, It spent roughly formance. The issue's price appears to al$130 million on creating and launching ready discount the advances in share net
nathmally branded products. such as
that we project out to 2006-2008, though.
fee creamers, Silk and Sun Soy say mUk George A. Niemond
May 9, 2003

on

u.e ~
TliEpwuSK"RISMJl

1/75 S*I ($nIIIJ

1.'"

'0

cor-

lClln

(A) B
_II!I!rterHYInge
shiftS out- 2-4: '00, 1; "01, 42; "02, 95. Ne:rt.,,~
mlbns.
standingthrough ~, then dih.tBd xc:lrdes
repc.ridll8 .rty AugllSl
D RestIt8d to I'l'!fIlId diiconti1ued opelilti:lns.
IIOmICtmng gag: '96, $1.32; ~, 7'fjf; '00, (8' Irdudes irdilngibm. In ZOO2,$36oCZ.7rrMl- tf): $100 mI'. r1Ide8m8d 4/11100; S2OO~.
11; 1oa8s: '98, 22; '91, $1.14; 98, 8; '99,
lion, $41.10 B shin.
&eng redesned 5J21/D3.
o zm3, 'MIe

1-;;=:;!,;=;;:'-==7-=-',,;;:---OC=~""='--=-'-o=2:==""==c_:c=::'_==c_:c::_:=__;_;le...,,=,.j
BUSINESS: Dean Foods Company (fcmwly Suiza Foods Cttpcn5,% inhns1 in its plasl:i:: paO.aga busnelS July 1999. Has about

38.51
1268.1 t02

4.1).5

-.
.8.0
14.8
65.0 103.1 119.9 1201 125.6 279.3
255
,., NltPnlllBI'IIIII
4.
f-....::+---'''+,.:~..
T.-h.c;o't-;~i-+''''Ci'-I"''~-h:,T,:'t-*'~
~h~Hi::::::'i:~~-~
..3lG'%
~~
-.
.- 28,21l 16.4' 45.1% 36.4' 3H'
311" 35.8% 37.9% ..3'.0%
.OK IncaIITuRati

10:1:~1m;

PDt &I'd

ANNUAL RATES Pat


of dWIgI CJ- .",
1. rra.
Sales
.
"cashRaw"
--

Eamngs
Divi:lends

45.9
656.9
400.3
208.0
1311.1

..
.. 103% s.,."
s."" '1.0% .'"
S.1% 8.""
s."
'U"
fU" 0..... ' li~1n
1f.5ll
1--'-'-j-~+_"T.:;c+_-T.H--'Z:Tl-';;~+-;~cl-7f.'rt--;;~h~+''7.;.+_''''iS1~=::!i::~:..-+'~:F_I

12131102

ReC8lvi1b1eS
I~
(FIFO)
Other
Cull1lnl:AS88tI

ad. V.1ue

~:::::::::+:::::::::~:::~~q~:;~~t~~~t~~~+~~~~:::~~~~~~~tj~

Inc. AI ~nserwd.
FICMlIl'lllenal it DtIlIil'IId 1rarII..-es ~
Rf~lORIMY[RRORSORCMSSMJt4SHEkEW.lM~l'Ii*dJ
__
iIIIIl'l CIl' ~"'"
pri*Id. *-il::. _ ..... DIll b ,... ..

11I~~"
~
II

.........

-*"

B+
70

lild.'-

il. P'DlIiIed"'1hl'JaI'Il'ies
"''''
....
Il'WnIlIl ... fiklpIl'I.
pri'MrI DlIiII:hIC ~
III prDlU1
T

."

Camp."" Financial Strwngtll


SiDck's Pr1c. stlblily
Pricil GnnirUl PMs5tMct
Earnings PlWllctaIIllIr
I

I'.

II:

1S

85

II

DIAL CORP. NYSEDL

3 !.oIIeltd!21KJl
3 ItNlnlln
3 ......,"',

TIIf]JIi[SS
SAfElY
TECHNICAL
iIE'm

..."".

25

GIIIl

Arm'I To1II
RdInl

+30%

",

Inskler DeclsJons
A ION D
1IW1

J f

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
301110100
1 1 1 0 0 0 0

Institutional Decisiona
101.2
40ItlI
120
110

....
:::.

"

07704

!~

-.
~.
~~
~.
~

~-

.-

Pen:enl

12

"",",s

as of 3131JQ3
D.... 1n 5 YI'I S247.5rnU1.
LT Inlerat $30.0
senD notes ("08).
3.6):)
(72" oICo,l

m"

Lu , Uncapltallztd Annual rentals $14.0 nll


Pension AsadI $159.4 mil. Oblig. $249.1 mill.

"
"

..

..

..

"

"

..
"

..
"
"

..

.,..

0lI1e<
Cul'l'8nt Asssts
Ac:cta Payllble
Debt Due

299.0

00."

151.8
250 .

99.0

.-

,.
... ...

""

'''.~

..
"
"

....

"
"

..

..
..
..

..., ,,-.....
.-

2004
2000
2001
2002
2003
15.70
15.50
11.S3
13.43
ft25
1.56
1.70
UO
.96
1.36
1.45
.51
.86
1.19
'.35
.31
.16
.1.
.fl
.43
.tl
.36
.so .55
1.86
t7S
tl0
m
.86
IL..
105."
".51
16.0
m 16.4
1.69
.90
.90
.8~
1.<%
1.1~

...

"...

".2

174.7

.
~~

....

-= -::

1638.5
11.0~
54 .
41.0

30"
1.9~

1663.3
131~

12822
19.B%
35.8
".1
79.0 113'
36.<% 37.2"
8.8"
'.71\

f310

MIl

19.0"

17.8

12_
17.tIll

0.3"
210

BooIl

DftIIIIClIrI :ii'll DIItil

au

A'll'"I
PIE....
RIIIIiYI PIE Rdo
A'II

Ann' [Wd

YIIkI

... SII'."_ 'Inli

458.'

GO
210

310

8.5"

19.5"

ZO.""

fl.'"

16.1l'I'
72'

96~~
18.6"
18~

C.'_I""'"
YIlUI,....

Cop' (lnl)
lq.,... llobI 1Ilol)

149.0
21.1"
16.0%

emplDye85,

III A

Div'd. Dtd'd,..

c
R..... an TatII e.tI

35.511 R...........
EouH.
<1t1ll 3t.5" R_iDCanlEq

'"-"'

"" ""

06-08
11.15
U5
1.7~
.fl
.45

"Cull F1olr" "" III

..m" W_I

81.9

66.1\
13~

WllpII"lhE
Eamngl plIr

129
28.'

cYALlELllEPIB.II~

Not""' ......

..... 3

S5~

221.9

".S

1".
".,
'". 2>.1
.".

100 SIIa (1rwI) E


i_
11.'" 0"""
40.0 a..........
I.. ~
135 Not""' ...... ,
17.IIl /nc:IlnI Ta RIll

dl1.2
469.3
293.9

..... ....
131.5
S72

lD

BUSWESS: The Dial Caporati:Jn maootadlhS


and rratets
54.5 lnnded PfnO"I8/ cae PRJcII/CtI, IlI1OO'y dl!'tl!lrgetrts, ~nned bad
1392
products, ai" hshenen,
and other consLll& household produc$.
57.0
527.4 ThB OOInpllny's mljor bnInds 1lcbIe: Dill, lov., COlIst, R..m,
AtmOlB'",and Puru. II ~
ildependent IhrDug h a spi'loI'I torn
- tI'I8 bm8'" Dill' Cap., whi:1I is now tnown n Vild Carp. IUs 2,900

".5

32

11

..

,,~

...,

'"
",.
B

246.7

219.6

'",'II
.. TOl.ItE'I1B

1994

"

..., ..., ' '"11>

942
130.0

"0

1995 1996 ~
1997 1998 1999
.. 1m 14.11 13.28 14.18 11.11
.. .96 1114 1.13 1.35 159
.63
.n !!I t01 1.17
..
.. .16 '1
.32
..
~1
.61
.. .71 W 3.12 3.78 '.09
.. 86.87
1"'-62 103.15 100."
..
.. 112 18.9 13.' 15.3
..
.. 1.33 too 1.12 1....
..
.. 1.1l'I' 1.91\ 1.3~ 1.1"
.. 1365.3 1406." 1362.6 152ts ,n1.6
.. 1Q.311. 9.1\
".s~ 15.0%
.. 19.1 30~ 31.8 36~ 43.1
.. 54.6 691 83.7 102.6 116.8
.. 3US 1.tl 37..5" 36.1" 35.5"
.. 4.0,,"
.1\
671\
68~
.. .. .7 41.1 dUB d1U
1~
169>
8U 18112 301.0
..
140.7 310.0 3901 411.3
.. 11.01' 19.4% 22.3~ 16.6% 181%
., 11.1l'I' 49.2" 161% 16.3\ 28.4%
.. ftal' 39.~ 16.9~ 18-'" 10.8\
..
.. 11~ 35~ 31~ m

1993

"

MARKErC"P: f1.J tIIUlon (lIidC.pl


CURRENT POSIll)N
RPceivilIbI.
Inventory (FIFO)

.-

-.
.,l!~'!" 'T"'..... ~

"111 --..1

..-

T_rget Pric. Range


2006 2007 2008

.... --- ..- .

II
1'1,.

....

21.0
17.1

22.S
13.8

18.8
112

...

"

Pfd ~oct None


Cammon S1ocIl. 95,438,061 shs.
as cA 41'25103

29.'

...'"

10'01
105
113
67217

"

Cat~..

23.5

38.4
19.5

30.3
19.4

.I

;;:

The new Dial Corp. inoorpol'iltsd on June


3, ,996 as a wholly-ownedsubsidiary of lhe
fanner Dial Corp. On Aug. 5, '996, old Dial
shnholders race~ed a dividend of one
com. sh. of the new Dial kx eadl com. sh.
heid. After the distribution, the new Dial became the owner and opermr of the old
Dial's consumer products business. On Nov.
11, 1997, there was a public offering of
5,460,75' shares at a share price of $18.31,
wi1h Manic lynch as the lead underwJi1er.
CAPrrAL STRUCTlJRE
Tatal Dellt $460.9 mi.
LT Dl:bt $460.9 mi.
Iocludes $'200 mill 6.5"
(Total merestlXM!Age:

21..
13.4

..,.
A ~

3 0

15.0
11.1

i'Ilia~s recenillrl

d _

0.8%

12.01"til'lhF .... p~
R$MPrUShlglh

~Yn

f:ao~J 17%

35

High:
Low:

...

211O&4BPROJE~.'IS

19211rRATIl 142(trOl'lo151)

Mediil1: Hiif' m~0.84~

lEGENDS

.75 (l.llO-MIltd)

Price

IFCENI
PRICE

lllO

mo
17.0
1.15
./Ill
1150

,1.0"
..0

.'"

37.11

lO"
UO
350

..""
100

lG.5l1
fU"

AI DlY'da IDNe1 PrvI'

'"

1,020 ernpIcJyen cmlnd


by CDliIIctiVCI
hargan/rag .iIg~
Ari9I Clpilal Mallllf&mlJf1towns 7."" d
oulslaOOi'lg ClXmIOn shar-. Ok/dn.. CClI*tJI 2.4% d IDIInL
SiJcII. (W3 proxy). PraQent & CEO: HIIrtlert 8IIwn. Inc.: DeIllware. Adnss: 15501 North Dill Boulean:l, 5catbidl.1B, Arizona
85260-1619. T.l: 602-154-3425. IntIm8t www.dilllDp.tom
induding

Argentinean operations.
Chances for the potential sale Qf Dial
may be waning. It has been open to proposals, preferably From large conswnerpnxiucts companies, since the new management tearn came aboard in mld-2000.
But management has done a good.job in
revltalizlng Dial In the meantime. The
share
price
Is trading
well above the
depths hit in 2000, and the company's
<:ash position
has grown to $247 million,
from Just $6.8 million at the end of 2000.
Now, Dial is Jooking to make some small
brand a~lljons
to enhance its existing
that companywide sales and earnings
gnxluct
es. The company Indicated,
FilII should grow at a 3% and 10% cUp, respecowever, that it would not issue debt in
tlveJy. over the next couple of years. Theo;e the process, but would consJder selling Its
.51 estimates ~
predicated on sales improve- Armour business to raise additional cash.
.16 ment from existing lines, despite tough Debt reduction
rar Dial Is a priority.
1.19
competition, new product offertn~, and These shares are not timely. It appears
u_ further
cost-cuttJng initiatives. Di is con- that the company's restnJeturing process
f.45
sidering the outsourcing of Its data- is largely complete. Based on present operFull
operations, which would result
adons,
we anticipate moderate profit
v.... processing
In about $30 million of up&ont costs, but It growth from Dial through 2006-2008.
But
.32 ought to save the company $8 million to with the company back In position to con.32 $10 milllon in annual expenses going for- sider acquisition activity, our projections
.16
could turn out to be on the low side.
.16 ward. Meanwhile, the bottom line should
benefit from the exit of Dial's stnJgg.ling Michael P Maloney
July ll. 2rJ03
Dial's

earnings

picture

is

looking

168.
good. The first quarter of 2003 marked
Put Est'd ... 02 the eighth consecutive period of year-averANNUAl RATES Pat
on..
1IYn.
year share-net advances. The company
Sales
1.0%
.. 4.5%
earned $0.31 a sh.are in the March
"Cash FIlJw"
111.5"
Eamngs
-- 2.5," 12.5"
quarter, compared to $0.25 a share a year
0Ml0rids
-.-. 6.0% NAIF ago. The improvement was led by strong
BookVillull
2111.0%
-13.0%
sales
growth In the Personal
Cleansing
QUIRTBILI SAW ~ 111.)"
CaIFull
particularly
In the laundry
care buslv., unit,
_.r.31 JIIII.3I SeD.~ Dec.31
ness, where sales of Purex detergent were
373.1 4011.7 411.1 5.6
1638.5 up 13% sequentially
and 21% ahead or last
389.7 .165 <30.5 '26.6 1663.3 year.
2102 1BII.5 3229 337.2 333.6 1:1BZ2
We expect another share-net Increase
2003 312< 33_
m 351.0 13fD for
the full-year
2003.
Dial has indicated
331
f4'O
3fD
375
311l
CumtntUab.

"-"'''')

-.....
-

......
Z""

--

....,

...,
Cs'

290G

2101
2102
2003

e""
1M

2001

2002

2003

EARlMGS PER SKARE A


Jun.:lD So,.30 Dee.I'
.10
13
.05
.13
.16
.17
.26
.Z1
.15
.31
.31
.32
.31
.35
.30
.31
.30
.31
QlJARTfRLlONilENDS PAIl"
lIu.31 Jun.3G Sep.30 Dec.31
.08
.08
.08
.08
.08
.08
.08
.08
lor."

... ...

.IM
.IM
.IM

.IM
.IM
.IM

.IM
.IM

.IM
.IM

,....

(0\) PnBy.m1lQS Ihltlllgh'98, dlluEdtI8&- divllllnd ~


dates: rrichJanuary,
mid- ralincIlo reIect .oopion of EITF 14 _00 25
iIftI!I' ~
~
bsSeS: '95, 52.54, Apri, mihluly, mil-Qc:klber. (CI IndudM in- 8CCOUIIIiIg standiWs. Prier )'NfS ..
lid
'00, $039; 'lXI, $0 63, '01, $2.31, '02, $1.01. tangibles.. In ll2: $420.6 mil., IU1/sh.
(D) In RlSIIQd.
NliIxI BImiIgs ftlpDl1 due IHt Jul. (8) App'OX. mlians. (EJ Sallis rlUlAS in 2001 r...... bliIen
CI 2tIIl. 'tMIe lilt
nsmBI. FIdwI .....
15 IItIWr1Id IIa'II _
t*WIlIlo be nWile d
iI. p-cMaeII wl/DIII ~
III ~
UId.
lllEI'UBUs&'RI5I)TR
[OR_[RRORSORCM.SSKlNSHE.REIlI.n.~iI.~"'~~~col".""''''''IftIIt.
pMt
af .,. be Iep\IdIIl:Id. Ira&. SInIlII"'~'"
1IIJ,ri*d. *D. II"
IMlIb
-.g 01 ~
,n.I1I" -=-DIIi:
sma 01

~m

'*' ....

.,

cum,.~
Fm.ndld stnIngitl
StDck'_ rica Stabli1r
Pril:8 Growth ~
Earnlnp PrMlldl.lMIty

'.,

II:

8
70
40
50
II'

~~ 0.74 ~
ENERGIZER HOLDiNGS NYSEENR I=' 31.631~1lO12.5(~':~:I~O
High:
LCIW;

24.9
14.8

275
15.0

31.9
18.5

.11

Nil

32.2
22.5

,I

'" TOT. RETURllIIDJ

"" '''".m

~=l=:3 """'... ""


1 yr.
3)'1'.
5 yr.

14.5

5.5

68.0

12i
26.5

ff-

IIC. .....
Ene<gizer Holdings Inc. was inrorporated 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 cYALlJEUllEPIJIl
in Missouri in 1999. Prior to April 1.2000,
.,
.,
.,
.
"
.
..
20.03
18.47
19.67
25.10
Jlt.70 SIII!I pit sh A
JU5
the 100-year old rompany was a subsidiary

..-.
-.
.

2.89
1.1..
2.76
UD
.3.10 -CuhFJow-perlh
U5
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
2.01
.81 2.01 U5
Us Elrnin;1 pII' It! A.
110
'" Ralston Purina Company. On April 1,
..
.
.
.
"

.
..
.

Nil
H' Dtr'dl bed'd per III
Hi
2000 the company was spunoff to Ralston f.-....:..:+-.....::+--..:.+-...:.:..t--...:4-4-.::..jf-T.-I--iit-..-;;+---'iit----'itt,:;;;;:.:;:::::;2S;';,;--+-'ii-j
sharehokle ... who received one Energizer
.
..
..
"
"
.

.76
.85
.~
.70
.15 Cop' Spondino p... h
...
share for each throe sl1aras 01 Raislon they
..
.
.
..
-.
..
.
1.73
6.63
1.fT
10.50 IU5 BoalYllu'PlfM
JU5
hold.

.
.,
.
"

1r.I.55 "91.71 88.46 '4.00


u.OO 0IlKMIn Sltl Outsrll C
100
.
..
.

..
..
.

..
..
.

..
..
..

..
..
"

..
..
..
..
.

..
..
..
..
..
..

.
..
..
..
..
..

.
..
..
..
..
.

..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..

..
..

..
..

..
.

..
.

..

bof5lMl1

..

..

IllA.RKET CAP: Sz.7 bilion (Mid cap)


CURRENTPOSITtoN2001
ZOO2 3IJ1m
(SMU.)

--..........
_.
_.

CAPITAL
STRUCTURE
as of 313'103
Total o.lIt 11096.3 mi. Due In 5 Y,.. $1090 mil
LT Debt $375.0 mil.

LT InterlSt $22.5 mil.

..

Common Stock

=-

B3,8n,534

~~
Inventory (Avg Cst)
other
Cul'l1!lnlAssets
Acds Payable
Due

shl.

1~:~
361.3
209.9
783.3

1092

1~]
359.0
306.0

~:J
520.6
248.9

8if.9

11292
119.4 160.9

~}g}k~:gID]

..

..

..

..

..
..
.

..
..
..

1921.8
20.3~
1012
208.2
2O.T"
10.8%

9.6
.64
.

18n.3
192~
9U
169.6
35.6"
8.5..
1
1.9
1312.9
12.4%

1914.3
212~
62.0
194.0
35.4"
10.1"
401.7

122"

...7&

121'1.

1"....

=:W'

-_.-

11.1"

22.3%

11.5%

13.0% RlUnonTotIIC~'t

2&.3"
26.3"

13.2"

2&.4"

11.""

11.",

132'1.

26.4%

zt",

21.5% RmM.dtoc.Eq

or

11.0"

:: :: ~~:g:

1:

l:

4.1"

"",lti""

1.1"

f/~.,1Ie~.'"

1IfICI"

THr P\JBUSIR IS NOT Rr{pQt,jSlJL.[ 'tOR Nf.'( EllRORS OR DIoI'iSIONS H['R~".1lJil,""'"


JDm ~ t..-l., III'/,ri*d. .....
ased ...

is sh:ty .. ~

~.

....

G plIriJed
_. _

aIlt-.g -rr".., ....

..

,=

w_,

Nil

RtUnOltSlw.

emrit.,

NO AD Di'I'c1s Ill'"

Prof

2tOO

'11.0"
10.0
...
u.",
1.1"
5IIl
filii
1700
110"
15.5"
f.$.S%
N'

15% (5"), LM AmRa 6" (3"). Ac.qui'8d SchictWiltinscn


Swan:! IiIZDr businlns 3J03. Has 9,963 empkJyen; 16,750 111..
hoIdBrS. OIJdr. own 6.6'1'. of Qxt; ......1 c.piIlI~12.0"; Gotnan
Sad'ls, 6.0%; (12m prmy). CInm.: w. P. Stitz. CEO:J. P8lri::k
Mublhy.lnc.
MO. AdcRIs: 533 ~
UnMnity Of~ st.louis,
MO ~ln
Telephone: 314-985-2000. InWn"t:www.energizw.cmn.

Schick has two key product launches.


In April, it introduced. Intuition, a shaving
system
for women, which. has razor blades
sitting
in
a
skin-conditioning
bar.
eliminating
the
need for shaVing
cream.
We expect this premium-priced
product to
have considerable
appeal to younger. lessprice-sensitive
custDmel'5. In September,

Schick will bring out Quattro, a man's


four-blade, wet-shaving system. All told.
we estimate
these products
wI1l add more
than $100 mUllon to 2004 revenues. Howev.... heavy advertising
and promotional
expenses will probably \lmJt the bottomline contribution to a few cents a share.
These

shares

are

not

standout

for

year-ahead
or longer-tenD
perfonnance. We believe the Schick acquisition
bolsters ENR
as the
wet-shaving
market
canies the potential for higher margins
and price points due to innovative
produets. However, Energizer still significantly
trails Duracell,
and Schick remains a distant number-two
behind
Gillette. We belleve

Energizer

can make

progress

against

Gillette, but cant fully overcome Its domlnance and flnanclal strength.
Jerome H. Kaplan
July ll, 2003

l!

B Fully diul8d egs. Exclud8s: norH'llt1ll'Wlg


D F'll1ftS ant pro forma b8f0l1l ApliI, 2000
: '00, $0.14; '01, 10.06. Hut MTli1gl .pft-oI'.
report due July 23rd.
c 21111 va. liw: f'IMsIWllL K AI riQtn m.mlII. tam.! ....... i5 1III:Wled'" 5IIII.n Il*Ied to be ,..

HI

7381

BUSINESS: ElWgIZer f-Iottings Inc. is .. IlwVest publi:ly hded


prtnIry bstIBrylfilshlight DJmP!ny. Its rrlun tnnds, Energil..- MId
E-aady,,,
sot! II mn thiJn 150 aJUntriIs. SaIBs by tJrOdud
Ine: pRnIry batWi8s 82%, minillU1ls 4", ftasfllighb'nd
au.
i1ghti1g products 6%, mist2llal'l8OUl 8%. 2002 IlleS and pn:fis by
region: North Am8ncI S9% (12"), AsiI PIc:lI: 19% (20%), ELnJPlt

5Y,.., ID'M-'.

lU
1./111

18.7'1.

,,0.0

16941
162~
79.6
60.0
46.8%

A.. AII.'PIERdo
_'IE_
Ayt AnnHh'd Y"1IIIcI

u.
~

2150
2510 $aIIs($nil) AD
19.0" 11.0" '-...;;......
7U
71.0 0_(1"'_1
110
'40 Not
U.ni U.05 InCOllt Tu IIdt
U" NIiPraI1M...
"0
....
Cop' 1""-1
tll/lll
fOIl !.anOT... DoOI(InoII)
110
11Z0 SIIr.

ture prospects. The lateMarch acquisltion of the SchIck razor business has created a company with sales likely to exceed
DMd......
_...
NIIF
$2.5 bl1llon In Ilscal 2004 (yean; end SepBcd VIIue
.- - 1&.0f' tember 30th). Furthennore,
the balance
fJIcaI
GUARllRi.YSAUS(hilJAO
Ful
sheet 15 undergoing dramatic changes reDee.31Mar.31Jun.3O Sap.30 ~=I lated to the financing of the acquisition
ZOOI 673.6 359.9 402.8 478.01914.3(which. might raise flscal 2004's interest
2101 559.3 355.0 347.2 4327 1694 expense around $30 m1llIon).
2112 567.7 339.7 389.9 442.41739.7The company's battery business
might
ZOO3 572.4 362.6 570
lIS 21511 be facing the lull before the storm.
InflO
520
59Il
110 mo dustry leader Duracell (a GllIette unit) cut
RKaI
EARJrMGSPERSilARE"B
Fill prices 13% earlier in the year. Energizer
Dtc.31 111.31 Jun.3O Sip. 30 F~
trimmed its prices,
which
were
below
2000 1.07 .32
.2A .38 2.01 Duracell's, 3% to match the change. Now
2001 .fU
.06
.04
.20
.87 Rayovac. the distant
number-three
player,
2IG2
.76
.21
.43
.61
2.01 has adjuster::l
Its prldng
so you can
get six
2103 .91 .37 .47 .10 135 Rayovac batteries
fof' the price of four
211M 1.1D .35 .55 .85 1.85 Duracells. 1bls move wont be completed
ealQUARl'ERLYDrmENDSPAI)
Fun for another month. However, If Rayovac
endar lI.r.31 Jun.30 Sen.30 DK.31 Yur gains too much market share as a result of
tIB
Its pricing s.hlft, we expect Duracell to In2100
itiate anDthu round. of price cuts. affecting
zoot
NO CASH
DIVIDENDS
all Industry members. Another price reZDI2
BaNG PAlO
duetion will hurt ENR, which. gets about
ZOO3
70% of Its sales from batteries.
FI'!CaIyear ends ~
30th.
IClln min.
8a1fls

1-_

11.' ~~
.62
-.

17'39.7
21.0'1'
57.'
166.'
33.0%
10.7%
268.1 353.3
22>.0 160.0
fi07.9 704.8

Curntnt Lilb.
4952
534.6 'i265.O Past statistical data are not likely to
ANNUALRATES Pal
Put Est"d"00-'02 be a good indicator
Energizer's
fu-

Dlct-._III)

26.0
'16

nrr.-s

pcM:IIiIn.

III II'IJ Un1 _.


Iu . RD part

..a. pIIldtX1

Company'a Flllandlli stmIgtb


Sb:k'i Pr1ce stabilly
PrbGRIWCfIPwrsiDncl

B#
65
NMF

Eaml ..

NMF

P~
I

I '.

, I I.

I I ' ,

FOREST LABS. NYSEFRXI


2 l .. tII&'lMl3
:1 NNll21!Q

lWElJIIESS
WEll

High:

lEGENDS

Ann'ITIItIII
Reun

GaI!l

....
::.... ""'"
:,s:.,

'.0

133
6.1

15.4
10.3

35.3
14.3

.!jJ,~

~~

IeRniIln

r":"

2b- 1 "II .. ~

".,

312~ 319~~3'2~

321

Partsnt

15

128

-_ ...
~ .1-.-

'"

.hM8S
tnod"

'~
5

....- ....

11?<t1!

"

'ljt!:

16

~:&

'"

...,,.,.,

."

..

..

--

....

..

26.'

".

-.

......~- ...
::F

..

3a.""

"'.

28.'"

22.1"

..

OM'

,,., .M'
"." '0' ,2.9,
.. .M'

ReoeiYabiBS
~ntory
(FIFO)

Put

ANNUAL RATES

~=.

s:
2080
2001

2002
2003
201M

.....
e..

'92.1
'52.9
168.5
2255.3
151.7

-.

22.01\
--

..

--

19,0%

15.5%

ll'JARTERLTSAWII ~
Jun.30 Sep.30 DK.31
259.2
281.0 310.1
350.5 376.3 <03.1
461.2
531.6 516.8
605.7 &fl
I:lI
6TO
115
110

412.7
5.....

Est'd "10-'02

5l'1>.
31.5'"
47.5%
56.0%

21.0%

BaokValue

M3

P8st

"f,.,
20.5'"

So'os
''CoIsh Flow"

201M

119.1
1195.1
79.4

13.0%
17.0%
18.0%

1Iu.31

.51

.51

ll'JAR1ERLYDIVIl_
Pill
Mu.31 J .. .30 SeD.30 lIe<31

1199
2080
2001

21112

y-

111'-5
1566.6
2206.1
.lU 2510
7'1 275fl

EARMtGS P!R SHARE A

.51

,f~

32'.2
436.1
621.1

Jun.30 Seg,31 DK.31 IIIr,31


.08
.14
.18
.19
.20
.22
.lS
.2'
.33
.<8
.38
.'1
.<8
.49
.51
.52

.53

--

23.5"

R':..
y.59
.91
1.66
1.80
225
Full

Vou

NOOMOENOS
BEINGPAJD

2OD3
(A) FI!EIII )'IllW" enm MIfth 3111:d fDbri'lg
call!oo. year. (8) Far8sI booted cb.~
fnancilg as "Ofher i'lcome- iI fll!lClll "971f1d
'98, 'lid this is incUded II sallis.
o 2m], VIUe lM

~~

Tlll:IUlUSI1lISNOTR
rlI .,lIer ......

nsIt .......

(C) ~

~i1If1J',n.t

f ....

..

IU5
US
3.05
.8
.J5

11.75

'"n.
1.55
HI

m5

39.""

111.8
1ff8

21""
)1.8"
2000

1295
17.51
17,51
17-",

'84; UAO labs in '89. 2002 depr8Ciidi:lh rzIB: 6.3%; R&D: 9.3% rI
sal!s. Es!'d pllln1 9: B )"IllS. Has 4,240 BmPS.: 2,095 stkhldrs.
t:m'dt. own 6J'" or arm.,; Cl'p. R8seEh & UgITL, 5.8"; Clio
group, Ita"'; fMR Corp., 10.7'" (MI2 pruxy). Clnm & CEO: H.
SoomOl'1. Pres. & COO: K..Gt'lIDTBn. Inc.: Del. AcIc*".: !lO9 Thi1l
Ave., NcIw Vart, NY 10022. T.a: 212-421-7850. Web: www.n.com.

Forest Laboratories has taken a few


bits In recent weeks. In mid-June, the
company announced. that a combination of
MemanUne and Aricept falled to demonstrate slatistical significance in the treatment of patients with mildto-moderate
Alzheimer s d1sease. TIt1s setback in the
research program was not well received by
Investors. who punished its stock. Then. in
m1d-July, Forest reported. June-quarter resuits that also proved disappointing; 8scal
years begin Api'll 1st. Per-share profits
were essentially in line with expectations.
Sales were $19 million below our estimate,
however, reflecting. in part. decelerating
growth In the company's critical selectJve
serotonin reuptake inhibJtor (CeJef'a and
Lexaprq antidepressant market. Management attributed the top-line shortfall to a
four-day reduction In wholesale inventory
levels, but also warned that its 20% ean1Ings growth target fOl' fiscal 2003 would be
at risk If the prescrlptlon trend for SSRIs
persis'ed through the year. Timely FRX
shares. meantime. have fallen about 20%
since peaking a month ago.
Our profit estimates
for fiscal 2003
and 2004 stay unchanged for now ...

Forest's efforts to transition patients to


Lexapro, from Celexa, which loses patent
protection next year, continue to bear
frull. Its antidepressant
franchlse also
continues to garner market share. As well.
a lowerthan-expected
two percentage
points) tax rate. due to
e growing repeesenta.tlon of tax-advantaged
CeJexal Lexapro sales in the overall mix, ought to compensate for full-year revenues that may
not reach earlier expectatlons.
. .. but we have lowered our 3- to 5year price targets
by 15%. The aforementJoned Memantine setback. reduces the
drug's long-term sales potential. even if it
is approved later this year for the treatment of moderate-to-severe
Alzheimers.
The importance of this Issue is magnJ.8ed
by the fact that Faresf5
earnlngs visibility
beyond this year was already obscured by
both the impending encroachment of generic Celexa and the upcoming launch of
Ullys Cymba/lB, which could hurt SSRl
saJes. The target-price reductlon reflects a
four-point cut In the PIE projection. which
underscores our diminishing confidence in
the oo':kJ,ny"s earnings growth to '06-'08.
George
0
July 25. 2003

m'.

..-nings IJrougtl fill:el '96; dirtBcl


gall: 118,
'00, 1~ Nul. elnIngs I8pClI'f due rrid-

(bJ:

~D) Indudes r.langi)Ie!L In '02: $294.1 .,..,


'Ush. (E) In rniIIons, adjusled for ad. splls.
(F) ExclIdes $1' . 6 rnIIon h8tl iI klng-Ulnn
tead!s.

'"*rill is dItIinelI hnI -.as betirM 10 be ~


MIl 6 prurrided'"
ORNff[RRORSOROIrISSIONSHER~.TtB~i5""b~_._~iIl:~_.
1IIIIaII-= ......
..,1II' fIIIB"IIiIg .~..,~
OI' ....
~
resemd.

_-(~l

we

BUSI'ESS: Forest LaborattDs, Inc.


drugs used for ha1i1g
0epr8SS1OII, Polin, and gn!io't'ascullw
IIfId A1Sp.mary disordenl. 1mporta:nt prodllds: eMm (b" depression), A-mbid (lSbnil), ~
(.Inalgesa), TIlIZ1IC (hnMriBnsion), .nd 1rI0IU0I (tmill)' hd: ~
f9di:lns). Aim
g&IIIri:; ciugs using wnbcAed-;&1eese tBchnoklgy. Foeign bw.... : 2.3% of 2001 ulls. Acq. Gilbert LabS in

ther8det. EllckJdes norncLning


,~;
Od

..

....

2<1,,,

rrm.

144UI

-245.6
181.7
223.6 -m:o

d..". .. .,/

2002

3481

99.3

..

Current Liab.

2080
2001

264.0
41.8

Other

~scsI

611.5
116.3

8041

Cunvnt Ass8ts
~Pay.b"
Debt Due

'05.3
115.6

12

vo. ....

'~.

..

Be.,.

c.~~

J2

""
64.7
'~. ""'"
116.0
3~

.'"

..

96
80
6.

40

510.3

."

--

--_.

~
1999 2000 2001
2002 2003
gVAlUELDlEPIIB ~c.
2004
1992 1993 1994 1~95 1996' 1997' 199.
1987 1988
1989
1990 1991
3.33
6.07
7.55 SlllIII*'III "
.46
JiI
.n .83 1.01 1.09 113
.85
1.42
1.80
2.60
U5
.33
:Ill
'37
.73
1.10
2$ "Cuh_ .......
.15
.1.
22
32
.33
.30
1.85
22B
.01
.09
.12
.26
'.05
l'
.18
.12
17
.32
.59
1.66
21' Elningl f* III 1IIC
.06
.06
.09
.11
18
d.l1
.17
13
31
280
.,
.,
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
.Di'f'd. DKt'd per III
.10
.09
.01
.01
.02
.06
.03
.05
.10
.01
.03
.03
.02
22
.1O
.l5 Cllp'l ....... g .......
.02
1.12
1.19
1.93
2.61
3.46
D
.66
.73
.86
1.62
2.22
1.90
1.91
213
>8
'.55
'11.15 BaaIr. VIIuIi,..1h
'.53 641
.54
.86
10
g
.5' JbU5
ZI5." 28"J ...,7.47 JUll.52
2>.3
261
3d
D.l
21>
20./
33.8
46.3
40.7
26.3
A'1l ..... ' PIE ....
18.'
25.'
'71
23'
.. 1.95 2-'1 2.39 3.01 2.09 1.43
2.10
1.54
1.36
1.41
1>7
1.91
1.95
1.39
1.60
R-'PIE''''
..
..
..
.
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
AJg Mn' Dif'd r-M1d
CAPrTAL STRUCTURE .. of 31311113
351.6 393.4
200.7
<55.2 597.5
881> 1174.5 1566.6 2200.7
2788 WlI($rIII)AB
2580
36.1%
NMF 19.2% 17.7, 20." 26.5' 31.3% 37.S'
JUlIO
36.0'
46."
TobI! Debt NorJe
to.7
14.1
40.6
43.3
16.5
19.2
20.1
21.3
54.6
51.6
801
100.1
1041 <1361
788
150 "'_11",111
58.' m 112.7 215.1 338.0 822.0
Leas., Uncapitalized AnnuBllVntals $28.9 mil
.. 2U'" 3D.n. 28.4% 28.0'
241% 21-", 21-", Inc:orn 11:1 bit
35.9' 35.8'1.
36."
18.3%
No o.fin.et Ptnskm
Plu
~.5'\ 23"
21.61 201' 30."" 30.8% .d_M_
NM' 128' 12.'" 12"
560.6 8ml
295.3 2913 381.0
286.1 2.1.8 372.4
1690.9 1100
W..... g Cap' (10011)
"'.1
PId Stock None
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
"
laII1lT ... 00bI (lnM)
-566.8 699.3 809.5 626 .
884.7 '122.1 1625.1 2351.8
3N5 Sh,.- ...... '1ooIIl1
3115
6".2
743'
CCIIINJtml Sloe .. 363,471,985 sID.
14.3\ 12.911
9.5%
12.7% 11.6"
20.8% 26.4" 2'''''
1(L4"
'4.'%
21.5" R...... CIIITIIIIIC.'
21-", ........
Sb'.E .....
12.7T\ 11.6%
10."
20.8'
9."
26"
IlARKET CAP: $17.B blllkln (Larglt C.p)
10..% 1'-7% 11.6% 20.8% 26."
14.''11. 14.3%
g"
2<"" 21-", R....... tDC<nEq
..
..
..
..
..
..
CURRENT POSrrlOH
2000
2001 3131103
HI
"
N' Ail Dfy'u to twf Prcrf

..

Target Price R.n~


2006 2007 200.

,. TOT. RE1URIIIIIDJ

:,~

270

61.3

..

1103
Rdiule

....

55.0

.""...
i.:'~~

5nngll

1/01

Nil

lIIVlI

41.6
23.3

Z-tII!".l ~

_, ,..., "
22'

6.2

"

Institutional Decisions
202

7.0
3.5

111'

~~.,..

HIgfI
15 {+T5~t 15"
l.IM'
55 +10% 3"
Insklllr DecisIOns
IONDJFMAM
000000000
130112102
o 8 1 0 1 1 103

6.5
5.0

WINE

2.fur-1 ~
z.far-l

2006-4. PROJEC11ONS

6.6
5.0

49.041~oo25.0<=: ~~)PIRAOO. 1 44 YID

p '"

25.0. "'tl'lll Fa.-

z:-;":, ~VJ~

IEfA .ID ('I.oo-MaIMt)

Price

6.0
3.'

5~1
3.6

low:

_.01_

ITCHNICAl

I~ECENT
PRICE

II
...

:1'oplll
kiId.
prlllkIIt.

CoInP'';:
Fn.ndli
SIrerlgtll
SIDer.
rk:II StBIIty
Pa
QrowUI PliralltMlcl
Earnings PI'MktatlIIty

A
70
10
35

11-,

:11:

l:r

FULLER4 rH.B.I NYSEFUL

lIIEUlIESS

LtlIIl.ullYilOl

H~:'
26.6
21A
Low: I 17.3
15.6
LEGENDS
_
1.t).L.JlrF .... I'~
SmIg1i

3 N.!W1IZ119ll
3 RWIl!J!W3

SAFm

GaIn

Insider Decbdon.
..,.

36.4
19.1

35.9
14.1

27.3
19.8

.,

,I

111.. 111'

F.'l

1101

..

-- -

1.~r"TJ... ".. "

Target Price Ran~


2006 2001 2008

_.
10
H

. .~

1~11~_995

21.04
1.46
.9D

24.1D
1.40

26.84
1.41

.13
.18

.55
.19

"TOT.~=. _

1996199719981999200020012002
20032004!~~~:~8~

29~
1.80

31.11
2.06

33.n
2.43

35.09
2.04

39.3B
2.30

.... 41)
2.51

45.35
2.88

41.21
3.15

48.17
3.11

48.45
3.34

47.91
3.59

.... 97
3.49

.....29
3.02

.n

1.00
21

1.28

.97

1.10

1.21
.33

1.43
J7

1.35
.40

1.55
.41

1.51
.43

.9B

.29
~33

1.04
.32

1.74

If
151

32.

3."

~50

Ul

B.96

9.&5

10.68

11.89

12.24

12.20
VEl

1.09

.23
115

1.28

7.98

911

28.01 21."
13.3 13E 1.1
10.6
M
1.16
1.22
.1'
1.1%
1.7%
2.2\
2.41

21.'
14.
.92

21.65 21.60 21.81 28.01 28.13 "'68


11.1 ,U
16" 16.6 14.1 11.'
1.01
1.1'
1.(1;
1.11
.02
1.03

1.4%

1.01

.14

1.1)3

1.<1

1....

5.68

6.28

6.64

28.38

28.<3

20

.16

1.51

1.6'

CAPrFALSTRUCTURE as of1m:l3
TolaIDlibl$208.5d.DUliIn5Y"S30.3m..
LTDebtS178.2m1.
LTlntlrat$15.5mill.
Ind. $6.3 mil. II caplahzed Ieasa
(n irtBrBSt earned: ...ar;
toIalirteresl:coverage;4.Sx)
(27%ol'Cap'l
Pension ....
,11112$247 mil Oblig. $368 mil
t..asn, Uncapib.IiudAnnuar~nt!b 11<1.7ml
PM stock 1.3 ml.
PM DN'd 1.02 ml.
4S,900IIts.$6.67par,5%QIfT\.,eachl!ntitledlo
aowles, redeem BI par.

915.3
9."
29.7
27.0
42.5%
2.81
119.9
60.3

1097A
9.1\
33.4
30.9
38.S\
2.8\
129.7
130.0
V'8.

CommonStocll.28,J81,093s~
IS "'3t15103.
MARKET CAP: H15 million (Small Capl

10.0% 11.4% 1.5% 8.3%


10.8' 112\
9.a% 102% 11.9"

CURRENTPOSrnON

Cal'~
Rec:eivables

~~
(UJ=O}
CUnent Assets
AcdI PByabIt
Debt. Due
OUwr
Cutnlnt liab.

2001

2102

11.1

32

211.6

"
.. .

312103
1.6

213.4

217.8

4Q3.9"""ij)[
11"2
117.5
31.'
21.4
58.9
75.9

422.9
102."
30.3
66.8

1.81

1.8\

120.8

1275.7
9.6%
412
41.0
292
34.1
38.01 041.1J1'
2.3\
2.1\
142.0 141.6
166.5 112.8
-",
"",.of
~.7

8.n

1.11'1,

8.3%

6.11'1,

1.5"

28%

26%

30'1.

27%

1.41

".3
1.00
1.5\0

~oo
13.35

.42

1.7<
14.32

1.09
1~1

1.10
.41

.44

1.28

1.JJl

15.81

17.00

1.75 Eaminp,..lh
... DiidlDKI'dpll'M

U'

230.0

8.9%

25%

.75
".~
C.

Clp'I...... ing .. '"

1125 BcdtYllulpl

I!

28.33 28.36 lUll


Zl" C.... OIISh
lsfg"
18.4 1~6 lU
152 ....... 1-_ A'll""'''''''''
1.05
.82
.15
1.60
:: ~
R_
PIERdo

1.41

1.9\

1.91

1.5%

A.;AM'Div'dYllld

1306.8 1347.2
10.31 10.210
46.8
(9.5
40.3
37.3
40.8111 29.'\
3.1'
2..8%
111.6 112.1
339.
II~'"

44.55 4'1 Sa/nfWah A


115 110 -cull ReM" 1*111

28.11 2823

US
.54
1.1'
21.15

21.50

t1.'
W
t.~

1364.5 1352.6 1274.1 12562


fZ7D 1220 SIIeslSmlU) A
12.61 11.4\ 11.'% 9.4\ 11.~
11.",
00.8
5Z.2
54.4
57.6
51.0
11.0 ~donl"iI:Il
43.4
491
44.4
28.2
45.D 50.0 NIt ProIt I~\
42.11 37.0\
31.l1t. 30.1' JI51
2U" kIcanIITuRldl
3.2%
3.6\
3.5"
2.21.
'.5% 1'" NIl
114.2 20U
199.7 194.1
UD
UD WorkInllcap, l$nll)
300.1
263.1
250.5
203.0 161.3
115
110 LonIl1M111
o.tlI ~I
"'I' 31.'"
6
'"'
"'0 "".86
.-,.- ......
~:
oK ...
..,..7
.......
.-,..
_ .....
r.eNn'IJo ... '

1DO
1155
15.0
15.0
.~
(1S
150

7.8%

15% RRmlonTuWCIp'
9.5% Rdlm CI'I $hr. EII~

u%
10.5"

7.0% RItIintd II) Con Eq


ZI% AI Dtv'dlto NIt Pn:I

l5%

Pratt...

B.6%

10.9% 11.5\
1.1"

29"

8.511'

26\

9.1%

11.3'"

12.1"
92"
24\

10,2%
1.5\

21"

5.~
6.3%

U"

iI.S%
7.0%

3.5%
44'

2ft

Z5D

-..

21"

BUSIIIESS: H.B. Filler Co.IormuIatas, manufactlns IINhnllrwts


rail: 7.8%. Has about 5,100 .... PDy8lISand 4,450 mnwnon shireedhesiwJS, ... Ilnts, C08tiIg!l:, pans and ottIer lPedaly chBnital lx*:kn. orrDilr5 IIncidhdDrS own 4.1% of the skJck; Ban:ays
pnxIUds. 2002 sa. tnakdOwn: adhesi'l_, tMIiIntIancl~,
GIot-I II1\'e!itn 5.''1.; A1b8r1 P.L SWw:hen 1.8'1. t'W3 Proxy).
95%; paina, 4"; oller, 1%.2002 sallls by l1lU~n: North Ameri:I,
Chllimiln, PntSid8nt and CEO: Ablr1 PL Stwcken. 11'II::DIpCQted:
58"; Europe, 22%; latll ""-ica, 13%; .AsiIlIPac:l"E., 7%. R.
Mhwsota. Addnla: WlI1d HQ., P.O. Bcut 64683, Sl Paul, UN
SlIlIIdI and DlMiIoprnent, 2.2% of 2002 u.1es. 2002 depmciltiln
55164. T_phone:
65'236-5900.
IltiMlIt WW*.hblulllr.ccm.

':J~ ':i~g '~1

"""'204.2

the good first fiscal


quarter
earnings result,
we look for
ANNUAL RATES Put
Past Est'd '01-'12. Fuller
to report share earnings
of
tJ~%
51"':.. 1Drc:
$1.60 this fiscaJ year (ends November
"Cash Aaw"
5.0% 3.5% 5.0%
30th). Stringent cost-saving efforts and fa
Eami"tp.
3.5% 10% 8.5"
vocable C'Uf"l"eI1cy tailwinds were the main
DIvidends
7.5% 5.5%
5.0%
2.5"
~
Boc*Va!ue
8.5%
Q.O%
lac tors prop elll ng a_
IU;:l;t-quarter e arnln gs.
FIKaI
QUARlBILY
SAW~.a)
F.. Management
Is looklng for share net of
Ftb.21 111131 Aug.31 NodO ~=I
about $ I. 70 this fiscal year, the main
~ ....r,;;n'--;;;';;;:-~T,,:;;;rr'k:;;'H thrust of which is expected to come from
321.2 341.2 32J.l ",1.1 1326 price hikes. Implemented to Olver higher
raw material CDSts (estimated to Impact
2103 294.6 JZl
:11.
:lJU 1210 share net by 50.20-50.25). But given the
20M 315 3JO
320 355 1320 fact that competitors are lowering their
fIac:al
ARhWfGSPERSH.".
F..I selllng prices due to the prolonged
FtbJB MayS1 Aug,'1 NodO Fy:
downturn in the specialty chemicals indus
h'i;~+::,;;::--:~;.:-=~..:::T.'+-~!'-ltry. we doubt Fuller's price Wkes will sUck
.34
.63
.26
.51
1.14 for long, If at aU. AddltlonaUy.
we look fur
2011 .19
.42
.42
.54
1.57 higher
pension costs of about $0.20 a
2002 .02
.28
.32
.36
.98 share. Partlally offsetting these negatfves
::
:~
:~
::
::
;:~ are pretaxlcost savings of about $8 ml11lon.
more stab e volume, and a slightly lower
c.... QlJARlBL\'DMJBllSPAIIl4
Full
tax rate.
e.'
.31 Jun." SIlD.30
Dec.31 fu.r Share net should recover to the 2000
fill
.10
.10
.105 .105 .4f level in fiscal ZOO4. By next year. we
moo
.105
.105
.105 .105
.42 look for economic conditions
in Fuller's
2001
.105
.105
.11
.11
.43 markets
to be better.
Moreaver. the full
'~~5 .11
.11
.44 impact
of cost-saving inJtlatlves should
21".8

199.3 Notwithstanding.

~c:"(PW""
l:

= ::~::~~~i:
:: ~~:~
1:

33.3
24.2

J A I 0 It 0 J F
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 "-J

~~~~ ~ ;!

31.2
17.3

m',

~'::..";:o~~D:"~;~n~
00 ~

32.5
17.0

n/lJ1

II

R."dl

__

30.1
22..S

linn

50
(~1~\
21"~'
30
+25%
8%

Loiir

24.8
14.8

"=-__ ~....
2-1Dr-1~

Ann, TaW
PrIce

23.981~m15.0(=:~n~~ O.891~ 1.9%

19.9
14.9

~:l ~

TEOINICA1..
BfTA .u I1J1ll-MIIlS)
2_PRwEc'!JNS
!IiIh

21.1
13.9

:n

FJ!QI ~
..
NlW 3D. (8) DM!d e.n
Pttn.yttnl"97. EJ:cl narnaJr Iloil..
(klaes) ~7(12);"Ol,9_ Nul8Br11111ls
I2pm dlJlt IIiIf1y Jul)'. (e) He:ct t!W'dmeeting
zaJ3. 'MIe "- PutII5hrlg. lilt. AI ~
res.erf8l
fA)

THE PU11t.15tER !SlCll RESPONsaElORANY


II ." .. ,....
~
5IrIIIIlIlIf ...,

have fallen to the bottom line. In additlon,


we expect {l'CtrochemlcaJ-based raw materials costs {as much as 50% of total sales)
to be at least
somewhat
lower than they
are today.
Longer-term
eanlings
growth is a
fun c tlon
the tup Une
0 f gett1ng
moving up again. 1bIs, In turn. hinges
upon new product sales becoming at least
20% of the total a cyclical revival in the
specialty chemical Industry. and the acqulsltion of productive bolt-on companies. The
former two objectives should add a certain
amount to the top line. but meaningful
sales Jumps will only arise from acquisitlons. Fuller has the ftnancla1 wherewithal
to consummate small-tomedlurn
size purchases. It Is more a questlon
of finding
them at a fair price.
.Based on our projections,
over the
next 3 to 5 years. we think Fuller
stock can at least reach the highs seen
in the 1999/2000 timeframe.
But this
only means that this stock. ..anked unCavorably for the next six to 12 months. has
about
average
long-term
total-return
potentlal.

Jeremy J. Butler

ERRORS OR OIIS9ONSli[RE1N.
." ......
Md'1IIE .......

l~"""

'*

Gon ex-div'd
Jill)'. ApJ:mt d",d tafl9il11s, '2 "'23.1 ol, $4.J31aIJ
paymenl .... s: sbL 151hd Feb, M~, Aug,
sndNov.OI'i.ndre~pIan8Yil11abIt.ID) In m.l...;SdJ. b.spit. IE) Ind. ...
flctaI lNII!IIiII IS aIllineIt hOIJI SlUm tJ*wd to be .......
15 p'DWiIef WIIaIl -.nws ~

~.

nm~f5
,,11 b ~

aicltJb
~_,_
..uIiIrl ~"...,.

ki1..
NopMt

811]'

liiWiLill. irll.-nllllZ.

~jIIIIIIicIbI.

June 20. 2003

FN:IICiaI.s:tNlIgth
S1Det'sPnc.StalllIIIJ
PrIcIIGrowtII~
EMIl. P.... dabIItr

JInI2' fit

,..lIlIlI:I.

I '.

II:

s+
85
35
70
I ,

GLATFELTER NYSEGLT
3 '....,m'"
3 l~~1l2m4
3 l..MIedJt11m

lWEUIISS
SAFITf
TCllNICAl

19.5
15.1

19.4

14.6

23.6
15.4

..... ".

'-::'<.0.

1111'"

"

."".

""
"'

,.i'l.

32236

31~

.,.

"',1' ~._hlill

111.5

9.1

":
llU.J

,.

57

PlI/'CIII'nl

traded
hare>

2~
,

",

14.4

16.4
11.3

9.8

15.0

19.3
10.2

target Pric. R8nge


2006 2007 2...

9 .

hili

1,,1

OOOOOOOO()
Institutional Decillions

:~I

19.1

11.2

",.

..... 0_...
'.

..y

::.:

59

23.4
15.4

31

iJl:brs ,enlSDl

ASONPJFM"

55

19.6
15.6

2.for-'"

",,"'ITataI

.....,. g~ggggggg~'..:
.....
... ...., "'0],.

29.5
17.4

LEGENDS
_
HiIl:W! p!Jl
" R~
P*t 5ZiWlgtI
!m

2QQ641 PROJEC11ONS

....

High;
Low'

BED .JO 11M. MlIb(l

Pri<e
.;go, 25
l'" 17 1+7~1
+15%
Insid.r Decisions

IIJ) ~J%1.251~ 4.7%


,
lec!i;rl:' 15J
I~14861~RAm 212('....

- -.......

III

I~_-

10

-...... .,'.

..

- ..........

"T01 Rl1RIM2

.....

""'"

'''''
'"
'''''
~YAl.llElJIEPIIl
IIC.
-17.3
",,3
-12.9

3 ....

51'"

.10
.TO
,39
,00
.60
.10
.TO
.70
.70
.10
.70
.TO
.50
.7,
1.04
2.05
2.56
1.19
.18
1.37
.96
.51
.69
1.00
1.21
.5lI
'.29
lJf,
1,09
1,<6
9,13
10.02 10.31 10.03
6.81
8.17
8.19
6,98
1.11
1.18
S.1S
42.15
99 "AI 43...
".02
"",'7
16,
10.
1<1
17.1
15.3
13.6
10.4
1<J
\0.1
2.,"
".6
'9,'
NM'
'2.5
,n 1.00 1.17 1.43 .OF .16 .78 ~ .60 .7'
.96
.18
.68
.8<
1.3%
4.0% '1%
3.1%
4.0%
5.31
1.9%
1.3%
2.9%
3J%
61%
1.3%
2.9'
4.6'
705,1 680.6
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as Clf3l311113
473.5 478.3 623.7
566.1 561'.1
n.4J
Total o.bt S2OO.3mi. Due In 5 Yrs $220.0 mil.
11.11 11.8% 2.2..1% 2.2.9% 19.0% 11.8% 17.11 16.5'
LT
IIItItI'lSf
$1.f.5mil
LTDtbl:$255.5mif.
38,1
.2.9
35.8
41.1
46.1
32~ 33.6
41.8
(LT inter8St earned: 5.31: ~I rrrturest lXMlfage:
31.2
9.7
66.1
45.3
42.1
41.4
<6.1
00.'
5.Qx)
38.1% 38J% 38.5% 38.6% 36.4" 35,"33.8'
39.9'
(39%"
Pension Asseb-1~2
S386 nilL Oblig. $250 miL
.. %
2.0% 10.6" 10.n.
6.0%
6.8'
I.""
6."
99.4
31.1
70A 101.9
17.6 115.0 135.5
16H
Ptd Slock None
3001
150.0 150.0 1500
150.0 150.0 326.'
301.4
441.4
295.T
315. 331.0 340.4 :W3.9
358.1 3n..7
Common Stock 43,707,861 shs.
5.11
2.9% 15.1% 13.5% 10.1% 1.8%
8.0%
as 014/30/03
7.6'
lJ%
3.3% 10,'" 11.1% 13.3% 12.1% 11.6% 12.4%
IIARKET CAP: S650 million (Small Cap)
.3%
.MF 11.1"
.4.6%
4.4"
3.'"
3.3'
CURRENT POSrnON
2002
NMF
200'
66%
64%
1Ol\
113'''3
'1%
~lLl
46,3 BUSIIESS:Glafelll!r
Co ......
95.5
36.1
mlnulad:1RS. specially prVrtng papl!f!i (53"
Receivables
60.2
68.3
60.'
d '02 sales). IkxIg ... OUIl. engf'le8r8d pa~ (41%). The ITIIp'
62.8
70.5
73.4 ty of 1he prilting papWS In lined et hi ulla:ld8d frw.s!leBt porInvenDy (UFO)
21.9
In.
Oil""
9.'
Current Assots
240.4 ~
198.4 ti:ln or thlt mlftel Foreign sales axounW for 29'10 ~ 2OlJ2 ales.
About 29'1. d the ctJIIlIlny's pulp was p&Khued tom extsmal
28.4
36.2
31.6
"""
"-bIo
1t98. Sott EtustI Oirisbn
Debt Dull
125.2
1.0
'.8 IUppiers. AI:q'd 5 & H Papier ~
Otho<
47.9
10.1
Glatfelter's end markets remain retaCUrmnl Uab.
209.3
97.9
101J

,10
.TO
1.12
1.17
117
6.5'
5
64
13,1
11.0
.67
.93
'-'%
'.6%
635.1' 543.8
18.3' 19.8%
4S.0
451
<6.6
39.5
35.9% 35,8%
7,3%
7.3%
31.1
18.
152.6 218.7
353.5
313.8
10.1% 1.9'
13.2" 10.6%
4.1% 2.5%
64%
m

.30

.,...

..... ...

...,.,

"",'0

."

....

Put
"'_1lW
..) "'ts.
.ol..
1.5%
-1.0%
ANNUAL RATES

"CashRow"
Eamklg5
Dividends

.--

-4.5"
1.0%
-1.5%

Book Value
CoJ.

1.5%

-{).5%
-5.0%

--

2.0"

~S"
3,""

..""

Nil

3.5"

DUAIlTERlY SAlES II ~

....'Jl JII.JD -Sfii.jQ IlKJl

l1(.B
l1B.l
134,5
1(5.3
136.0 138.3
2DD2
1(5
141.4
2Oll3
155
150
fAIlIINGS PER SIINl!
lar.31 Jun.30 Sea.30 DK.31
.J{)
.33
.11
.29
ZOO,
,16
.36
.25
.22
2.Q02
,16
.11
.2.2.
25
2D03
.17
.11
.11
.22
.20
.IB
.%3
.21
DUARTBlLYDNIlENOS PAIl
III1rJ1 JudO Stp.30 Dec.31
1199
.115
.1T5
.1T5
.1T5
,175
.115
.1T5
.1TS
.1T5
.1T5
.1T5
lDa1 .1T5
2002
.175
.1T5
.175
.175
2003 .175
.115

-.....
2001

....."".,

lBT.!
185.6
132.0
143.6
14.5

lBU
110.3
137,B
1(5
150

"",

.....

Est'd '10-'12

Put

H...

Irk........
nome. :;:,,"
.

rs~l

1996 ......

_.

bRes): '89, 1~;

m,

r.,
Full

124.7

635.1
543.8
5JO
III
filII

Y.r
1.09
1.09
.90

.10
.11
Full

Y.r
.7D

.10
.10
.10

5.'

"'"

tively weak. Shipments of all of the company's paper products met internal goals
during the first quarter. That said, It appears that the seasonal pickup in printing
and converting papers was slow to develop
in the second quarter. As such, CLT may
encounter some pricIng pressures, which
would hurt Its operating margins. What's
more, management has indicated that atthough the pricing outlook fDF its other
products is stable, demand will Ukely
remain depressed through yearend.
Noncash pension income accO\Ults for
a large portion of profits. Due to the
poor performance of the capital markets.
the value of CLTs pension plan assets has
dropped sharply. Accordingly. although
the pension plan remains overfunded, pensian Income will likely ~
$8.3 mfllJon to
$18.6 m11110n this year. tl1I. OU' of the
$7.5 million in income GLT booked in the
first quarter (excluding a gain on the sale
of timberlands) more than 50% was pensian income. We admit there is; nothing
wrong with this praetJce, and one could
say it reneets positively on GLTs pension
program: however. noncash, nonoperating

''" ......

~.

(Cl'"m ........

Q.., ..... ftIId" ......,.

llIf.I"lIR.ISIERIS~SIIlE~RINr[RRORSOROIIlSSlQHSHrRllN.This~islRlylor~':=;O'
II ~-t"1IIpIlIIIEIId. rstL
it." fII*ll. ... ~

.-.s.......,

8IId

is

.....
__

.......

.... ...
--

-..;::

.. -

--

ItO ..... ($l1li)


lUll 115"
45.0
45.0
3D.B
40.0 D~nn:~

l.lIl

.70
1.10
10.15

...

WI

'-""

100

10.'"
50.0

""""'81
...""
""
""""'
81_ IlmM' ...U"
11"
''''
40.0
$11.0 w_,
,..
"0
sl".-_lirIIIi
'''' '"
'''''
7U

lnaneTuR*

310"

750

Cop'

300 lq.T"'_I~)

375

500

10"

''''

CIMI'eI'ItAaNts n C~

UlbIIIIs:

Cah & Equl'l. kJ C~1'rt

LIItJIIIiIIIa:

WtkIg

CIIpb1 tD

~~

-.tIIiIg.,.,.-. ,. dtda* ~

...

.10 Dtv'dl Dld'd I*' Ih


1.00 Crp'ISf-diIIO,. ...
166 BookYIM ....
"'0
A:'g Ann"',,: Kl'io
R_PJt:_
A'll Ann' [JIy'd YWcI

items accounting for such a large portion


of profits lowers the qualIty of these resuits substantially. Accordingly,
The dividend may come under pressure. With a large portion of Its profits
from nonC$h items. GLT has relied on
borrowing and asset. sales to finance its
dividend and capital requirements
In
recent quarters. We think this trend will
1Ikely continue through yearend, making
further oolTOwlngor asset sales necessary
tD meet these needs. CLT has tlmberlands
that may be attractive to several buyers as
well as an adequate balance sheet. Hence.
its dividend is likely safe in the near term.
That said, If Its end markets remain
depressed beyond that time. management
may be forced to explore the possibility of
a dividend reduction.
DespIte its sizable dividend yield. we
recorwnend. most investors avoid this
neutrally ranked issue at this time.
w.R. Pekowitz, Jr.
July JJ. 2003
CASHPOsmON
I-T .... Av"g
31"103

_...........

70
1.10
U,

001
17.00
166

7."" R...... on TaW CIp'I


14.0%
10.5" ._"'
.... E....
>/IF
7.'"
1'" RItIintd tD Con Eq
>/IF
47lI
AI DIY' .... Mol """
8/01. 2D02. depr. rate: 4.3'1.. Hal al:lDut 2,.375 IIIlpbyees.
3,050
shareholdfn. PNC Fill. SI!!n'E8s DWnI 34.9% of CDI'lIl'lOfI AJck;
PH. GliItJetErfmily, 28.Ei"; G.H. G .....
, 8.7"; oIhw orsJdn..,
4.8% (4J03 prmy). Chnm. and CEO: G.H. Gillei&'" n. Pres.: RP.
Newccnw. Inc.: PA. Adci'.: 96 South G-.ge St, Su. 500, Yor'&,
PA.1To401.TilL: 117-Z2S-CT11. IrrlllllMlt:WIfW.gIlltfe .... com.

,,,

"~

(81 Divdertds trisb1caHy paid in ..". febru'94, ~2.89); 118, ~l; 00, 5; '01.
1Iry, eaty M.y. -'Y August, and early Ncwm~
; 'U2., 'WI; 01'03,
. Nut ep nrpClI1
.,.
~ ZUll. VIbe U1e
. InL AI'
1ISWIIlII. F~
~
.. i\ CII:ilIIiIn bani ~
bdiMd lD lie ~

26,'

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1076 10.82 1. 36 13.31 13.45 16.75 16.11 17.10 1,u1 12.<6 13.10 1166 SIlos,. ...
12.75
13.84
12.n 1216
11.86
1.70
1.60
1,19
2.11
2.11
2.14
1.94
1.90 -CuhAow",. ...
W
1.21
1.92
2.14
1>3
2.56
~62 2..39 2.01
110
E.ningl pw III It.
.73
1.07
1.00
1.09
.70
1.81
1.67
111
11
U9
1.41
.98
1.09
.90
1.13
1.70
1.16

....,

16
12

"

- ..-- . -- ..

-.

af
Uld.
......
IlW.'tpart
511'i:r. ~

su.:

,-

.."""

1!l2~

55"

""

Stxh
StdiitJ
PrIcI Grvwtb ~
Earnlnp PlWdidalMIlJ
,

",

75

10
75
:

II:

I'.

WJ%O.841~ Nil
GTECH HLDGS CORP NYSE-GTK l:r 34.541~ 14.0(~':~;lii)
30.'
1 Rai;edl2l2lWZ

TllEUIIESS
SAFElY

llCHNICAl

'CNIIN ~
~:.

....
(1m~ .."

AmI'I lobi

R....

.""...,

55

35
Insider~fslon.

o 0 0 000 0 0 0
00000
0 2 0 0 .\
000
100 3 0 0
Institutional DlIClsions
Percent

. .. .. ....... ..

""'..
,
...
,
,
,.
..,
109
.......
24
"""'
,""'
I:::"
"""'"was publicly launchod
GTECH Holdin95
on July 29, 1992 wnh Ill. sale of 5.9 lJiilion
shalll5 ci mlMlon s1od< at $17.00 a share.
Tho deal was undOlWritton by a syndicate of
Donaldson,
Lufkin & Jenrotts,
Lehman
Brothers, and Morgan Stanley & Co. The

proceeds were used to retire deb1 and


Pllllerred slock associated wnh OW CapRaI
COIpOfillion'. FebOlary 1990 Ievlltllgo burout of GTECH Corporation.
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE IS of ZI12IfJ]
Total Deb!: $294.1 mil. Due in 5 V.... S1lO.Oml.
LT Delli $287.1 mil.
IT Intitrest "5.0
Incl. $175 ml. 1.75% debs. ("21) ct. irto 6.4 mill
shs. Bt $27.50.
(TWil kIteRIst rmmge: 21.3x)
(48% af Cap'!)
lauea, UncapltlllzKl Annuall8nllls $26.4 rril

m"

Plan

PM Stad. None

Cammon Stoct 56,699,012 sh!l.


IS oI4I3IV3

IIARKET CAP: $2.0 bilion lilid Cap)

.-

(1IIlLJ

ReceMlbles

~ntory

(FIFO)

Cumtnt ASSIIb
Atds PlI)'iIble
De.. oue

Ot!lIIr
CurT9nt Liab.

33'i:8
49.3

3.5

219.8

....

--=.0=.

2IIOD
z001
lODl

....

2IIOD
2001
2003

2004

Co!-

on'"
1191

2101
z001

lODl

ZI22IIl'

35.1
101).4

118,2

55.9
278.0
43.4
3.'

52.4
34'"
74_0
7.0
223.B
'04.0

242.8

289.5

272.8

142

20.3
10.8

14.1

t1.B

9.7

7.7

107.7

n.3

Past

5Yn.

' h.

..-t'1'I1 1"1"10

hllo,

9.0

17.6

A.

"' . II ',11'(1,1 ,,'

.-

.r.=.

Oft ~ ...........

.-nngs

~I-r""'"__...

'"

1.2!J
1.78
.55

..

l06
2.68
68.76

"1.52..
.-

632.9
32.01
96.1
56.2

1.01
1.96

.....

1.71
2.69
86-'"

1.65
2.31
.77

..

2,1l;
3.45

86.01

1B.6

17.1

122

1.14

695.1
33.1%
114.3

744.1
33.7%
1316
86.6
42.0%

..

55.'

..

41.5% 43.3%
8.9%
8.0%
9.0'
8.1
21.04
".3
259.0 33...
382.9
2313
232.9 296.1
12..1% 11.3% 11.6%
242% 21B% 22.5'4
23.8% 2Z,%

",...

10.64

195
.91

..

12.00
3.54
1.05

--

'4.52
3.92

U2

1.85
4.26
69.61
9.0

--

2.<0
421

4.18

3.67

11.44

10J
1.06

82.51
1S2
.88

.....

-.

3.68

'lr;;
3.14
1.20

.-

904.3

990.6
33." 35.2%
m. 201.8
77.8
81.8
.,,0% 39.0%
8.9%
8.6"
36.9
21.4
382. 453.6
358.1 3452
11.9"10 12,91
21.1%
21.7% 25",,%

2!l.""

'U
.63
..

912.9
36.6%
199.3
96.0
41.~
10.'%
3.1
319.1
283.9
1E1.5%
34.'%

1.29

..

.,

'" Tot

lOO
4.59

3.01
3.53

-57.49

9.1
.63

13.4
.69

1010.8
936.5
35.4% 31.9%
119.1 174.4
93.6
n.l
40.0% 362%
1.7'1\
9.3%
55.2
2!J2
349.4 317.0
296.6 31 .....
16.7% 13.6%
31.6% 22.9%

1009.7
30.9%
168'
84.9
35.4%
8.'%
d11.5
329.7
203.0
18.1\
41.8\
41.8'

..

:\1.6%

.-

32

12

17.56
4.41
1.41

".52

..
16

3.60
1.01

..

120
100
BO
64

'0

1 Y'.
'Y' .
SY'.
13.67

2008

"

....

RT\JGI oW!

"..,.
""
1>4
-16.0
""'"
223.B
-0.1

7.7

88"

2004 VALI1JNPIlB ~C.11Ii-lI1

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 200_2003


11.2!J
4"
2.43

flU
120

145

..

H'
~15

2.15

'>7

l15

r;;...
to.3
.r;;

51.00

..

I... Rnllutt,.,1It

H' Cuh_~'"
110 ElmfnRI pII' III A.
H' DiY'd' DKl'd pII' III
~1' C""' .... din9 ~ ...
11.25 Book VIIuI
D
51.00 lIIMlCll'l5hs Outsrll II:
Ayg AmI, Pi Rdo
R*1lYI PIE Rdo
AYIl Ann, [iy'd YoWId

-- ,...

pII'' '

"":.~';:

978.B
31.3%
1362
'.2.0
36.0%
14.5'
44.0
287.1
315.6

24.5"
45.0%
45.0"_ .

'.35

31'"
31'"
flO

'10

'"
31'"

'1'

Rlftftuu(W)

-.;,.",;,
0........

1100.)

NoIPro1t(lnioI

37.'"

IncoIlItTII.RatI
11'" lS1% NoI.... It.....
125 w_u
tip" (lnW)
ztI)
,51!
no UI ~~::llnIJ
SI".
/nOlI
22.'" 22.'" R.un un lull! Cap'l
3~'" zt,% R.... '" SIv. Eondt.
33.'" zt'" R_ ..C... Eq
Pm
HB
HB ADDfy'dl to

'"

lD.ID
U5

"'

H'

3J5
21.50
51.00
110

...
I/j

1110

...'"

'"
23'

37.'"

....
,"
'"
fU"

....

'00
1m

It.o%
H'
BUSItESS: GTECH Holdings Corparati:In ill the workf. largest
(mS): AmTote (2195). 2002 depreciaion me: 12.6%. Has about
supplEr 01 amputl!lizlld on-lirle klt8y pmducts IInd S&'VDII. I 4,550 empk)yees, and 2,200 s\XktdSer!l. CIIran & di1!lctn own
has opemng c::ontract!l wih 2S 01 the 39 IDftlIry authonl_ m the 3%; BiRlays 11.B%; ESL PiIItn8rs, 11.7%; S!I)'d. Cap'\, 7.4%
Unled stales Inll 59 at" the 105 irternilti:JnallCltkries
(ZI03 lQ-K). (proxy M12). Chnm.: EII'II1etI:Paige, Jr. Pres. and CEO: W. BIlIClI
In 2002. 18V8fIU. CMsisted of bng-lsm ..-YiaI 8Ixt [I~
~n- Tarnw. Inc.: DE. Ackhss' 55 TI!Idmoklgy Wsy, West GnlenwdJ.
tJac:b (89%) and product sales (11%). D~
01 Tranu.diYB Rl 02817. Telephone: 401-3921000. InbmlIt: www.gtec:h.r;nrn.

.-

.......

......

the roIowiJg ,...

2007

.... - ._-..... - ----

...

..

34.5%

..

_.

2Z""

..

ffitu1res

..

N.,

or above $33 for 20 out of 30 consecutive


t;rading days. This requirement has been
satlsfted. Although we expect few bonds
will be converted lnltlally, the asS1..1llted
dilution will add about 6.4 mUllon shares
to GTECH's diluted share
base, which
would lower
2003 earnings
by about
$0.25,
to $2.45 a share. ExcludIng the dilution,
we actually raised our target by a dime.
We like this stock as a year-abead In
vestment. GTECH generates strong cash
flow, has good earnings visibility, and operates a recession-resistant business. AlSo.
lottery opportwrltles for the company may
arise as state governments need new
sources of laX revenues to help close thelc
budget defidts. And there are stlll benefits
available from aggressive cost-savings initlatlves. It appears, however, that these
gocxJprospects are no secret. The stock has
risen about 30% since our February i-eport
and it has nearly doubled In value since
hitting its 52-week low last August.. Plus
the bond conversion will llmlt diluted
ean1ings growth over the next three to five
years. As a result. the issue's appredatlon
potential to 200&-2008 is below average.
Justin 'T. Sebastiana
May 23. 2003

y" fo;; 110.~; 'DO, 83; '01. ~. _


(e, a.-Jr EPS" 2002 do noI .... to .~~
bsseI fram di!l:xlnl:nued operations:: '94, nual toeal due tD mundi'lg.
tlmll!ih '97, .alIBd $1.15; '97, $1.44. N&J;t earnings .. part due (D) Inducles i1IangtIIBs. kI 2002, $115.5 mil
Ihefuft. &dudes trOm!llURJg 1asSer: '94, earIy.llly.
lion, S2.0lJsIr.we. (E) In milbtrs.
IDzan. YaJt I..ile ~"IU
115tMlIl. flc!l.IIIlIIIlicri. i\ atIlIiIled Inm ~
~
1IIbe rdrMlII: n is p1JI'iIcIl ..,...
--*s
d. :.'3aUla.
TltE. PlI!USt1II5tH
R
ORIrIlY [RRQRS OR OIASSlOMS HIl.lrt. TIIis ~
i5 *df'" ~
_, lII'
,.........
'"-.
pM
lII...-rillq
I'**d- ......
lII... ba Cl"fIse:/" ~or"""",,~
tlIdIIIlic:puIIbIIn. SII'Ii:r orp-IIIb:t
bruiWy

(B) Awnge

r8rget Price R.ilnge


2006

"

Est'd _'02

Eo

~-.r.: .....

36.9
25.6

23.8

GTECH Holdings has renewed its contract with Caixa, the national lottery
of Bra.z.U. The 25month contract exten9.0%
4.""
0.0%
sion.
which
took effect on April
15th.
calls
7.5"
12.5%
14.0"
for CTECH to provide both online lottery
Nil
and finandal services to Caixa. The new
3.0%
29.5"
deal
no incremental Investment
QIIl1lTERl.lREVEMESll.aj
bl GTE H. It appeared
that near
the end
iI;-Per Aua.f'r NCIV.PerF'b.Per
o the term of the old cont.Iact that the lot2410
2Z1.6 221.0 2459
936.5 tery administration of Brazil lnte~ed
to
235.0 236.6 163.6 274.5 '009.7
bring flnandal services "In house and
269.9
231.4
221.0 256.5
978.0
more than one vendor for the lotm 255 275 275 1035 wanted
tery servkes. In order to be the sole pro240
a' 215 ZJG 10lIl vider
for both services. GTECH cut its
EARllltGS PER SHARE
servit:e rates by about 15%. Despite the
qPerAugPlrNow."-r Febhl
lower revenues. we believe the deal was
.39
.29
.09
.27
1.04 necessary . Indeed, Brazil
accounts ror
.37
.16
.30
.2.8
1.41
6%--8% of the company's top line.
Add!.n "2.43 tJonally.
.49
.66
.Of
this
agreement
removes un_40
.51
.82
145
.1'
.11
.11
. 2
.11
110 certa1nty and provides revenue and earnlogs Visibility from Brazil ror at least 20
OUAR7BlLY01VllOOS
PAl)
FilII
months (CaJxa may tenninate the contract
Wlr.!1 Jun.30 SeD.30 D:.!1
anytime after 20 months with prior notice)
and likely the full 25 months.
NO CASH DIVIlJENDS
But heavy share dilution may occur
BEING PAlIl
soon. The rompany has S175 mllllon in
convert.lble debt. The conversion price is
$27.50 per share when the stock closes at

ANNUALRATES
Pat
Ro__
11lrs.
..... tpoo"'l
12.5%
''Cash Aaw"
17.5%
Ellrnilgs
23.5%
OJYidC1d:&
Boc* ValUII
18.5%

2001

....

46.9
118_7
117.8
54.4

<:ash ........

IB.7

12

52712

CURRENT POSrrlON

'0"
12.1

'InnO!

,,' '"
I' <-::

;-i;

""tGn

9.1

-,-,

JJAIOtlDJF

No Defined Send

15.4

7.0

-- I

Nil

S",,,1M

19,4

13.4

U~C"f"p,*

ReIIIiw! Pm Sl"tIl'gII
2~-15:~ SIOZ

2006-41 PROJECTIONS

22.9

LEGENDS

IlETA J5 (1.DD MaIUI)

Pric.

22.5
B.7

Hign:

Law:

3 ....._
3 ..... I'Ii"'

ft)cIc's rice StlblitJ


PrIc:e GrowtII p.nIiIt8tQ
amillp Pr8dicIUIIty
I

I '.

70
20
75
:

II:

I I

HAEMONETICS
CORP. NYSE.HAE I~W17.80l~ro 17.0(L~~:~l)
W~ 1.05~
5

TW.WlIESS
SAFETY

TECHNICAL
BETA .JO

l~ell!ntiJl

3 HPIIYl2m
3 RIi!.Ki 41M3

(lfJIJ ..

MMI1)

2006-&1 PROJECTIONS
Price

Ann'TotII
Gain

High: I
law: I

26.6
12.0

~G~:reP:~C61

rlalr"

. _. RdllIve

sefft~

Pm

o;eiI lJ!l]
0I*ns.: YH
SMdrd ,**S
;0':;'
I
Z.(or 1

50 (~1I.'"

.. "

II..,.

J A I 0 iii D J F ~11IJ:f'"1II'
(} (} 0 (} (} 0 (I 0 (I ~~
.
.."
1 1 0 (} 0 0 0 1 0 ~. ....

30 \+70%1 ..""
Irwkter Decisions

..

23.1
12.9

21.8
16.3

21.1
13.7

:.
~,

Jt:CIIU =-2
4QZII2 Pen::ent
45
46
43 shams
2~
242g 240~ lr.Jd&d

23.4
13.4

24.3
12.7

31.9
19.6

41.9
27,1

34.8
18.0

Nil

23.8
17.4

T..... Price Range


2006 2007 2008

!Ih

nceSSDI

-~-~-

",

~:~a':',\):C,~:x.~
10~
~...,
:::..

27.6
14.0

Rnum:;

....
U.

0pliII0I.

28.5
16.0

11',1'

I'

.,1'"

.-'1 .. 1'

"'1"'1'1

'.

Ill'
I

II

".

12

.
.'

~ ~

II

iii
""1" .

1 I

10
1.S

YOTm;:-:.;.
1
3~:
5yr.

-46.5

.21.B
1..

-16.0
-D.l
1.7

HARlAND (JOHN) NYSE.JH


TWIJN[SS
SAFETY
TECHNICAl.

3 ~ed
3 _"
3_

nJUlZ
1lZJ01

5/1..,

lO54I PRUJEC110NS
Price

HiF

40

low:

7%

....

"Ii.

20.9

19.4

33.0
20.8

32..9
18.4

2'.9
12.3

21.3
12A

lB.3
11.9

24.9
13.1

34.8
1B.2

24.9
20.3

R~Prke~
hdars

IcnSJDl

..
~ "_
.-:

'II'

I''''''
III

."',,,

.10 J' 1'1


I

III

A ClN0 F'~,,'~;--j---j--t---"+--"-j-"';"-j;--t--+--+--f--:-:+--+--j--+--+--+--t-18

..
J 0 0 a 0 0 0
J 0 ':;:.
0 0
~OOOOOOOOO'!--'
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

"lily

....

-.

.---Ann'l Total ~
GaIn
Retum
I
1+85%\ '"''

lciIr
30 1+25%\
lnskler Decl5ion.

20.5

23.6
19.1

LEGENDS
_
Ull;Ii"F"'p5tl
~_

.n n.oo-Mirkd)

.fA

1.2%

Hig~:1 27~1 28.~1 24.8

'5:'

... T01.RrTURIUlD3

HON INDUSTRIES
NYSE.HNI
4

lJIDJJIESS

l.a-=r!llnl.m

TECHNICAl
.15

IElJ.

l..Dm!d 11l'li81
l.rMe:1!ll 2nm

14.6

17.0

.",3.L."1O,,,
.'-L--\" 2.0

1QJlJ 'CI~

..

RelI'Iiwe ~
5fl!l 1190
lM

Z.fDrl

15.6
11.5

21.4

.3

37.2
20.0

29.'

18.8

27.9
15.6

1.19
8.33

1.00
9.59

28.8
20.0

30.'
22.'

31.7
24.7

':._'I'~
!'.nngBI

~~

"'11'1

feet's.siI:JI

Ann" Totit ..;_~


....

Gain~d Rrturn
(~%
14"

l.GII'
30
'Ni
Inskler DecwiGn.

32.1
16.0

!ob-' ~

PROJECTlONS

PrItt
50

11.8

LEGENDS

n.oo .. MIIMl)

2OQi-OB

Hip

HIgh:

f-!'L""~,~

3
3

SAfm

,,,

:~;

'"

\'>1

I l"'III"I~II'll1l,I'I~

A&OtlDJF.A~

JI"

.~,..

:,:.
ggg~ggggghll'
I.11I
IIStl
0 0 0
0 0 0 DO.\:
(l

InatllutiolUll Decision.
JQ2.2
as

.....

=,,~,~

.Q211J
.59

2S2~

';.'_0
1QZtU
81

28'':

._

........

PllI1:IElnl
shares

6
4

lladed

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992


7J1
7.13
B.B3 '0,25
9.43 10.91

n ~ n M

.iD
11
1.56
75.95
15.
1.06
2.0%

.10
.14
1.98
7'."
12.
1.06
2.1\

.12
.19
1 88
68.1
11..
.89
1.8\

.15
.1S
.19
.43
.J>
22
.~
2.83
2.03
2.32
2.S2
54.
54.'2 54.7. 63.J:l
".0
16.'
17.1 19.'
1.15
1.04
1.07
1.04
1.6% 2.1\
1.8% 1..5'

CAPITAL STRUCTURE IS of 3I2I.1U3


Total Debt $41.5 mil. Due in 5 Yl"I $41.5 mil.
lTDebtS4.2miIL
LTInil.RSf$2.0mi.
Includes $1.3 mill. cap. IIlB!ll!S
{Tetal intenlst COV81Igtl; 30.8x)
(1" of Cap'l)
ltun,
Uncapitalized 2002 n!lntals: $14.1 nilL
No Plinsion Plan
PM Stock None

CURRENT POSITION
Ca~~
Receivables
~~
(UFO)
Cul11lntAYets
Acds PIl)'BbIe
Debt Dug

:::nt

2001

2002

3I2MI3

78.8
161.4

155.5
181.1

114.0
148.5

319.7
216.2
8.7

405.1
252.1
41.3

328.04
189.2
"Sl.3

~:l ~:, ~i

.75
"15

129
6.19

2.<4
1.~

61..J:i

tiO.19

$.4J

61.titi

tiU!1

bU.17

59.1IU

10.3
1.07
1.6\

20.5
137
1.7\

13.'
.86
1.7'*

10.7
.96
1.1%

15.7
J7
1.1\

142
.B1
1.\

133
.16
1.9\

51.1

2~::~;

,..t

5:ci::S

.,,~:J:-':'~J1..~.

=-

58.J1

17.6
.86
1.8%

... Cop'ISpondin9porih
fl20 BookYlfulpwlh
~,.1lI
51.00
ammon Sh. W1Sf1 u
_~ _ _ A'll"""'"
_do
__
PIE Rdo
..
AwgAnnHlIY'dYWd

97.8

134.5

128.1

124.2

128.3

1!M.6 216.2

252.4

381.7

482.0

501.3

573.3

111.9% 16.6%

16.0%

13.9\

14.0%

19.8S 18.5S
111.7% 1511 13.9"
19"
23'"
25",

152\
10."
32\

".1\

20.0'4

22.5",

15.B\

1a.8"

17.6"

2'.9S

27.9S 19.0\

25.4\

22.BS 23.0\

17.9"

Z1.0"4

19.4%

18.4%

23'

19\

28%

~"

12.3"

35%

BUSIiESS: HON INDUSTRIES Inc. is the thid-B"gest marnJfactl.I1!I' of metal and wood otra f~
in hi U.S. SeiSlIl awnpIllte
~ucI Int, ilcUcJing filrit Clbi1vts, dlI",
chars, ... s~.
.rId cntdenms. Mil;' ernpII6B is on rniIl-pricad products. Am
manufactlRS gas- and wood-bumi1g f~.
Bough( B8YIs
Cusbn FlI'nitln, Penel SysIwns, 11197; AI5IeeI, 6197; Heet-N-

2~~:~ HON

H~ tr;~a:
~g1~19~~~:~

.<4
...
11.011 11.10

53.6

504.7

INDUSTRIES
appears to be
up market share. In the office
ANNUAL RATES Pal
Est'd 110-'G2
fwniture segment, which accounts for
~=ltplI"!fI1
1~r.s%
about 75% of HONs business.
revenues
"CashFJow"
110% 13.5% 7.5"
were down roughJy 2% in the first quarter.
whUe the industry's shipments declined by
Boot Value
16.0%
16.5'" 10.5"
about 8%_ HON currently has 14% of the
contract office fuIniture market. up about
c.
a percentage point year over year.
trNW
The company is executing
well in a
2000 481.5 509.7 535.3 519.8 2046.3 rather challenging
operating
environ2101 462.0 444.2 459.3 4.26.91792.4.ment. Gross margins continue to widen.
399.1 399.3 446.3 447.9 1692.6thanks, mainly,. to ongoing benefits from
2013 392.0 3tO
440
441
11110
201M 410
415
m
ftO
1100
restnJcturing moves implemented over the
EAlUllNGSPERSHARE"'B
past few years. The company's rapid conI~
lII:r.PerJun,PlrStp."":DIc:.h
tlnuous
improvement
program.
which
r.;;;;;--F"7.==;;"'-=~-=7.'+-~;-tfocuses on streamlining design. manufac::
.4.1 .39 .fil
.40 1.77 turing. and admlnlstrative
processes. is
2lIOZ .31 .33 .48 .40 1.52 also helping to boost gross profits. Lastly.
2D03 .27
.34 ..46
.4.8
1.55 HONs array of new products (which wUl
20M ~
~
::
::;
:::: likely ~~~~e)
roughly 30% of revenues
QUAR'lBlLTDMlEJillSPlIlc going r",~~
are also yielding higher
~r
M.r.31Jun.30 Stp.30Dee.31::
margin-.. AJj told. we estimate the rompar;;;;-F";;;;;"""::;;;:;-","",;-'~:it-";;-J ny will grow its bottom line by a modest
2CIOO .095 .095 .095 .095 .38 3% this year. By 2004. a better economy
.1 ' .11 .11 .;~
.: may help support. a 15% sharenet gain.
-.12 .12 .12.
.
A few evolvin:f dynamics
in the indus.125
.125 .125 .125
.50
~
the
I
2OD3
.13
.13
try augur 'We ..or
cOIDpanys
oogliab.

.>1

9.16
64./4
152
.83
1.9%

1692.6
1170
1100 SIIu ($mil A
12.5" 12.5% 13.01 ~a"lnIIn
68.8
110
70.0 Dlfnddon(lnl'
91.4
J5.0
105 NIt PRlIt IWI
35.0" 35.01 J5.C% Inccn. Tu Raw
5."
5.111 ~'"
M'"
106.4
125
145 WorflinIlClp1(1mUlI
80.8
9.8
to
10.0 lan8-'.,.DIbl:(SaII)
592.7 646.9
17/1
TN Slrr.-EauIfy {wi"

r.:~c:;:.~=-;;~:::''-=:-7:::::::;;-:;:;:;;'=1picking

.69
3.56

180.3 846.0 893.1 998.1 1362.1 1696.4 1789.3 2046.3 1792.4


11.3\ 12.5"
9.9% 12,810 13.3% 13.7% 12.9% 12.6'4 12.7%
16.6 19.0 21.4 25.3
35.6
S3.0 65.5 19.0
81.-4
44.6
54.4
41.1
64.D
87.0 106.3
99,.4 1061
89.B
37.0\ 37.0% 37.31 392\
31.5\ 31.5% 36.8" 36.0% 36.0\
5.7\
6."
'.6\
,."
,."
'.3\
5.6\
52\
5.0\
".6 n.7 65.3
52.9
94.4
72.9
91.5
651
89.3
179.6

Common Stock 58,162,313 shares


MARKET CAP: $1.1 blllion (liid C.p)

.57
3.17

Not_

.5%

15.5% Rd.Im llII10\11CIp'

1tOll

.. Oll 0.......

Sh< E~

9.6%

10.0%.

32'"

32%

11.0% RltainlClloComEq
119 AI DIY'dl1GfHI Prof

1...
1UO
55.au
.. 0

to
1.R
U75
13.5%
IU

'SS;

un
.'"
31G

If.
fQ(J5

15.",
1'5%
1101
22."'

Gkl, 10196;Gunlocte, 10i89; AFt IInd A1i9d GrouP. 2mO. '02 depr.
rdl: 9.3%. Has about 8.800 8IIlpD)IBe8. T.e & LB. Mealy DlIfTl
5.9'" rl CDTmOII sleD; Stn F8nn Ins.. 12.6%; OIJdi'., 62%
(3103 Proxy) Chrrrrl. & CEO: Jack D. MictIIeII. PIesDInt
SIi!ln
Alben. Inc.: IA. Addr.: 414 EII!d Thid Snet. P.O. Bax 1109, Muscatine, lA 52761-7109. Tel: 319-264-7400. Web: www.honLC%ITI.

term prospects. The company prides itself on bein~ a leader in the market for
"value-priced
office fum1t.ure. As such.
HON is well positioned to benefltfumjfrom
the
evolving trend toward Jawer--cost
ture.
as customers look fIX' ways to keep costs
down. What's more. the increasing number
of people wor~
riUih home ought to
drive demand for furnishing a rising number of home offices. These
favorable
trends. accompanied by strict. cost control
and add1tiQnal rnarket-share
gains. may
well allow HON's earnings to c1lmb at a
double-digit rate out to 2006-2008.
Changes
are under
way at the top
level. Stan Askren recently took the helm
as president. and is poised. to take on the
position of CEO next year. The change is
In line with the company's
long-tonn
plans. and we think the transition will go
sm'Thiooth}y.. _
5 Issue o .. en unexciting
prIceappreciation
potentiaJ for year ahead
and the coming :l- to 5-year pull. Still.
income-orlented. investors may like the
company's long history of diVidend payout
Jna-eases.
C
Gaudlo
J uJy 11.2003
an-Ie

(AI Filcal yaar .... cIs S.n.dey nea1IIt Dee.


~, 7, '94, (1_); '89, 18; '99, ($0.20), '01,
Nov.
3151afQllendar year.
C2f1. Excludes fM:. 109 ch8rge Y.J, (1_).
CD) In mlbns, alljustBd b sIDck splils.
(B) pnrrwy ...-n~ huugh 1996, dilled
Next. eln'II'Igs tepa!. dll8ll11e July. (el DMthin . Exdl.ldes IIOfJ'8C\ftIIlg gallS Cbs). dend histuically pail n .. Feb. May, Aug.,
zan VI1Ie I..iw I'IlI:itOIQ. Illc. AI rigtts~.
FIduIl
....
is CIlUftd 1I1:1III -.a-s ~
ID be nIIUe _ IS f"'iQell-.lbaul.
'dIT1IIWs " 8IIJ UHL _
lHEP'<BJStRISICJTRESfONSBLElOR"",!
[RROItS.OROIIISSlCltlS.HEll:lll. na~.sn:a,b~_._..t4iN_cial.ilumlllIIIII.Nl)pM
" I ..,. _lIpIdI=d. II506lI, sIInCI Dr hI'llIIiIId m IIIJ ,aitell. *hir: 111m ba Dr DIll b prII'~ " ~
., ~
Dr del:IDfIi: ~
5IftIb' Dr PfDIb:1

Campe.".. Fnanclal lar.ngltl


Sbck's Prke StabiIIJ
Prtce Grawth p.rMt8fIcI
Earnl. PNdie:tatMlt)'
I

",

II:

B+t
75
65
80
II'

INT'L SPEEDWAY NDQ.ISCA

Institutional D~15kJn.
2Q2112 KlHII
80
80
65
53
18223 18834

Percent

21
14
7

shafUI
traded

I yr.
Jyr.

5 yr.

1987 1988 1989 1890 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995


..
.
.
..
.,
.
.
..

..

.
.,
.

.
.

..

..,
.."

..,

.
.,
..

..
.
.,
..
.
..
..
..
..
..
.,
..

1.00
5.45

..
..

26.9
1.55

4.38
1.22
.98
.06
1.67
8.51
.10.1
30.4
'.IIJ

.3"

2%

..

-.
"

..

..
--

96.0
37."
6.3

Common Stoc~ 53,187,360 shs.


IndudCIs25,576,363 Cl 'A' sm. (1/5 vole each)
and 27,610,997Cl 'B'shB. (1voteeach)

uafJl3l103
bIUion(MidCrop)

CURRENT POSrrlON

2001

2H2

212&'03

CaI5h AsSets
Receivables
~~
(Avg Cs1)

712
25.1

109.5
30.6

148.9
80.4
1

148.6

11IIlL)

'Cumtl1t~
AI:d:J Payable

.n
.(Ij

5.62
1.54
1..22
.06
2.38
16.99

819
1.96
1.02
.06
2,&l
17.8$

392
2'"
.''1.

4':3
268
.1,\

9.9

13.1

25.1

51.2

-U

103
79

.16.0

-01
7.7

2003 2004
VALUEUlEI'UIl
IIC.
9.&4 10.35 10.15 ff.~ R.... UllpM'M A.
2.67
2.77
1.SiD
115 -Calrfbr"pII'Itr
1.65
2.00
liD
125 Eamingsplnh Ii
.06
.00
.01
.Of DlY'd' o.d'd PM' It!
1.85
1.01
1.25
UO CIp' SpIncIing PII' lit
19.48 11.10
1115
fl.OO Book.YllulpM D
.6
5U5
"3140ICanmlon'
"
24.7 20.1 ...... ~_
,An.'IPIEROli.
1.27
1.07
-_~
R_PlERdo
.1"

54..5

r-

.1"

141..4 139.0 298.7 440." 528.5 550.6


38.8' 392' 40"
39.4' 424' 4,.,

"

2Il.51 21.11 20.81 19.M;


d6.7
d25.0
21.-4 d51.9

'.

'.0

...
.....
--

~'.

....

106.1

209:9

-_

__

._

18.4%
18. %
16.7'

..

9'

2.8.t96.1

366:9
14.1% 10.1'
141" 1D.7'
13.1'
10.1'4
BY.
6"

902.5
4.3%
6.3'
6.0"
5"

12.3%

411

5ID
....'"
44,0

d54.1

16.(i'li 19.3'% 11.0"


d28.5
12.1
10.0

470.6

402.5

309.6

'950.9 1035.4
4.9%
7.0%
5.1% 8.5"
5.3%
8.2%

622.3

6%

BUSINESS: Intrilma1ionalSpeedway Corptn1ion owns and/or op...


eRE,'2 moIrH'sports fllt"ilitiBs' iI the U.S., mu:ling DaylOna lnilfnational Speedwa, and Talildega (AL) SupurspeedwJ,. Hos!s 20
of 1h1139'rBeeS n the popu_ NASCAR Wilmn Cup series. Also
sponsrn Busch
Grand NatDna~ CART, IRL. &
I!'V8rrts. ComplBtlld acq. or PenskB Moirnporls, 7199. F"scai2002 rvY. D1rces:

;i ~i

~~

14.9

17.5

248.1
17.5

9.2

5.8

6.8

107.4

Debt Due

3.61
1.03

.."'"

AvgAnn'lDiY'dYWd

JD5 R"'IJU~J

44.'n.D" 1000000no ii.....

Dtpr1dHon(InIi110

_ 8
=_

..

1~45

UO
.Of

1.1.
2110
ZO.,
f.J
.1%

715
U.5lI
51.0

..
.
.
19.7
29.8
39.4
56.6
!I4.0
87.6
106.3
ffO
12D NI1 Prott ,$nil)
155
1--'+-'-+--"-t"T.-h~+''''''',,","'''''~f7.~h,rr,;:+-ii'i;;;-t
.. :';;-h;;;';-f,':;:;:~,;,;;~--\
..31.0%
-;-1

.'
.37.8"
37.9'l. 38.3'
'40.6" '44.5% '41.7% 38.6% 31.0"
39.0% 1nCdnitTuRatt

PM Stock None

2.79
.76
.57
.05
1.01
3.10

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 2I2MI3


Total o.bt S309.6 mil. D ... In 5 VI'S $2.&6.5 mill.
IT DlbI $302.8 mil.
LT !ntI:r.. t $24.0 mil.
(Tatal irlerestQWl!rtlIJ8: 8.b:)
(32" afcap'~
Leases, Unc.lpltaliled:: Annuli rentals $2.0 mil
No ~ed
Benefit Pl:nsion Plan

IlARKETCAP:$2.1

...-

"" TOT. RETURII .,

"'.'
4Q2.2
73
52
1794e

Dt'*

4"

735
12..7% 11.0%
11.1% 15.0%

".'"
140
lID
155
ff.",
1{.0%

16.6%

13.",

3"

.m
1.f.5"
-'"

'"'

NefProfil....
Working CIp'I ($nil)
lCIrlQTImDltdfW)

StIr."Eauitvl$nlllli
RRlImanTulItCIIp'
RltumonShr.Eaul1Y
RltlinedtoCClIIEq
AlI-DIY''' to IWII"rvf

Z1.4X
UO
'1.0
1210
ff,5%
12.0%
12.0%
~

ticket sales, 39%; b'cas1 & spOllSOlShipfees, and hospilality nlntMs,


47%; cances.Uwi, 13%; Of'*', 1%. H2s "bout 900 gnpb. Officers
& di-eclln conIroIllbout 65% of ttlll voting rijjhts f02 10K). Chai"
I1\iIIn:Wiliam C. FrallCll. CEO: .IMnes C. FIance. Adrftss: 1801
West IntematxXlal Speedw;Iy Boulgy.-rl, Daytona Beach, FL
32114.Tlliephone: 386-254-2700. tntBmllt iscrnobsportuxxn.

Other
111.8 1132 179.5 I
Cu~nt Liab.
""""i35.9
136.5 203.9 ntenmtional S
~peedway has hit a few
rise d ue to th e grow!"&: po pul arlty 0 f the
1-:-:::="':=:::==--=----,-=-=--==-::-:-::=01
speed bumps. Fiscal first-quarter (ended
sJlOf1- However, we don t think these fat. ANNUAL TtA1ES}last
"Put"Est'd -''12
February 28th) earnings
were flat with
the tors can produce the high double-digit re\'~~IfIJ
1nrw._~ ~~
year-ago pertod.. This was due mostly to In- eoue gains seen durtng 19905. 1llat said,
''CeshF!oK'

8.0%
clement weather, that can have a big 1m. the company Is stlll a leading operator in
EsmiTflS
-.
18..5%
If."" pact on a bwolness whim generates a the most popular sport. In the United
2.0%
/OIi1
800kValue
_~ 31.0% 6.5"
major portion 0 f ticket sa!es on race day. S tates. Too, its tracks bo ld some 0 fth e bigAlso, hlgher
travel
costs affected at- gest races In NASCAR. suth as the
QUARlERLyREYEtl.ES{SIlIlJA
tendance levels.
Daytona
500.
Lastly,
advertising
and
E..
Feb,2I lay 31 Aug. 31 Nov.3QY.. r We anticipate
the company will report
broadcast revenues will likely increase in
2000 111.6 96.1 101.2 1Z2.9 440." a.flat to -slightly-down -second -quarter.
the 'high teens each year under the terms
2001
120.7 112.0
132.1
163.7 528. That opinion is largely based
on the pubof its contract with Fox and NBC. There125.8 116.7 136.4
Uc's aversity to travel. given the tough ecQfore. mou-ln....forward,
the rompany will
<w.
130.9
fIl
117 171.7
117.1 ~.
_
-- ...
201M 135 120 170 ,.
505 nomic climate and other travel concerns. Ukely be a stable bottom-line generator
FIR:aI
'ENlNINGSPMSHWA
FD'
Also, poor weather and lower attendance
with decent cash flow.
r Feb.2I .. .,31 AWl.31Nov.30F=
should hurt concession sales. too.
These
shares
aren't
a standout
Cor
r.....,+;=;;e--'=',rc;-'T."--'''''rl-T~ A!!i such., we have shaved a nickel from Timeliness,
and we' don't see much of a
~
.30
.17
.24
.31
1.02 our 6:sca.l
2003 s~.net
estimate. catal,Y5t
to prop up the stock's
price at
2001
.43
.25
.41
.56
1.65 1l\.Is
demonstrates the challenges that enpresent. Also. we have lowered the stock's
. .20G2
.. .ca
II
.56
;lD .z.oo tertainrnent compariJes like ISeA face.
long-tenn
prlce-to-eamings
multiple,
2803 .5(1
.48 .30
.N
.71 .70
.IS
1.tQ W
- d c the company
~ectI
201M
.75
2.25
e are optinli.s
can
ll::U
ng our concern tha t Investors will

O~_ -.

22.5'"

tDr-;:

r",=r:======-c=.-=.;--j
FJ:=
f~
!!2!

l.....

.~

.. =1J:~~P~.31

:::.:~~~tt~ee::'ts&
~
it~
have abated from a few years ago. Many
.06 races are sold out,. and wJth llttle s.eatlng
.06 expanston planned,
attendance revenues
.06 will be driven only by price hikes in the
.06 sfngle-dfgit range_ Sponsorship fees may

~:.~

~=-t==.:....::::::;;.;-==...:::=+-,"",Cl
1.

2DlIO

~-

z001
::::

.06
.06

--

.06 -.06

_.

_.

Ileamngs

'*"

ap:o~~r:
l~:~:h
~.
sx::

~~:~ a
the.firm has high fixed costs. which rould
constrain free cash flow. Therefore.
These shares don't offer worthwhile
3to 5-year appreciation
potential~
David NaJca.shian
May 23. 2003

(AI DilJted .-nilgs. Excludes ncnecurill9[


repat dull ~
~y.
(D) Goodwilllllll:lrtiZlll exc:Uded ... flSCl; ~comPury'. Flnane.t Shngtll.
piW(bssJ: W, $0.02,' '00, {SO.on; tl2, (81 ON.PQI1 Qll1Iually II June. NeR.~.vht
2001
SFAS142.
~
Price.blitr
($9.74). Fiscal ,... ends Now.-nbBr 30lh. 'U2 11111May "03. NeI:l: div. flllilting mid-Aprll.
Prb Growth Pllfl;1IlIIIQ
egs.
SIR b ttuI dUll \J roundllg. Nut (elln mlions.
Earnings Pl1ldictdlllitJ
o llm. ~.Iile' f\rtIIIfIiII. Int. AI J1ItO ..--.
r.... lUImf is araineIf lrIn !ICIIlIte5 ......
ID":r.-.e
IIIIl G~
-.tall ~
III mlY ttld.
fHPlB.lSlRISICJ1R.sPotcsIllU.l.oRAH:t.fRRORS.oR.cNSSlONSHRE~.Tbis~is~r.~_.~.c:--mt.iPmlII.tne.No.p.ll

I
,',
't t:
rlllllJ lie '..1~.elI
01....
IlII1ftJ fII'*I1 ~
III __ taL. IISed b ~
.. lllIIReiIiIIJIIIJ IIi'*d ....
18: paIIbIi:rI. WIQ III (IDdur1

don'

B...
IJ5
80
65
I.

SAFro

.. ,..""

0
1
.1i"1 0 1
Instkutional

..,

51

',

134

12.54

l1z

9.'
.78

1.15

..

..

,...

.44

1.12

3.16

3.97
.1

--

..

18.7
1.19

17.5

1.06

..

..

199~
1994
14.1S
1123
'2.98
1.19
1.34
1.58
.75
.89
1.01
.. .02
.04
.42
.1
.38
5.64
6.88
'.58
2'"
16A
161
19.1
Eli
1.06
1.32
.1%
1%
365.5 411.1
504.0
13.6%
13.'"
13.'"
113
12.1
141
22.1
32.1
16.'
34.011 37.0% 311.0%
6.4%
6.'\
6."%
95.3 109.3
119.8
102.7
122.5
90.'
135.0
164.0
101.3

--

MARKET CAP: S1.0 billion (Mid ClIp)

16.4%

16.4"
2081

2082

17.9
219.8
111.9

14.4

"""

.,

Poynble

CurT8nl Liah.

Put
llYn.

-.---...
c

2lI01

c...

,.
"

2000

2101
2012

62.7
394.1
78.6

178.9

1.4

11.5%.
10.0%
9.0%
2.0%

16.0%

11.5"

--

QIIARJBlI.T SAW II
M".JI """.30 -SfO,30
145.6 241.6 251.7
254.1
285.1 m.2
255.1 211.8 180.3
151.1 210
300
305
315 31$

88.7
168.7

......

Est'd 'DO- '12

Put

8Tn.

13.0%
14.0%
14-.5%

Diidends

Book VaItHI

2101
2012

115..3

72.5

998 .

80.5
4.5

175.4-

ANNUAL RATES
"' ....
(po .. ,
S.Ieo
''ClISh FQw"
EIlrni1gs

.-

111.5

..JIY ~

""""

Cd-

. 7
209.4

200.4

428.4
74.1

Debt Due

3/31J03

1.5"

'.""

11.0"
12.0"
14.5"

01.1
Dwc.II
268.3
2&1.6
182.0
312.3

330

FilII

r_
1013.2
1053.6
1089.2
11/0
lZ15

~PSlSHAREA

FoOl

".11
.33
.31
.38
.39

J".30 5 ... 30 Dwc.Il


.57 .
.45
.'SI
.51
.42
.61
~1
~1
.55
.IS
.11
.51
.10
.13
lIlWllElLY DJVI)EIIlSPAIl ....
IbrA1 Jun.1I 5 .31 1lK.31
.013
.013
.013
.013
.013
.013
.013
.D13
.013
.013
.013
.013
.013
.013
O~~
.~~~
.01
. 13

., ."

!:l.""""r_~"'"..

,d ........
. Exdudes ~gal1l(losul):
W,
($1.28t. '99. ($0.29); '00,
.23;"01, ($0.80).
NeJ:t8iWnl1gs I1iIpcI't d.. 1iItB July.

'MJe'" ~~

G ZCIIl
THr P\JBl.JSKR r; NJTR
rill ~ ~ .......
'ISIIId,

r_

1.72
1.91
1.05
ZIS
140
foOl

r_

.05
.05
.05
.05
~m
.

..

3~.

11.1%
16.11
15..&"

"

11.3%

21.05
1.93
1.28
.05

.05

.05

.05

. .05

.05

.05

129
1.95

1.19
9.68

.75

J7
11.51

.73
15.86

."."

"'.UI

17.5

16.'
.84
.2%

. ".9'
13.6
.78
1%

.66
12.43
.7
19.0
.91
.1%

797!J
'3J%
23.8
'5J
39.0%

818.3

10132

'4.0%
16.0
50.'
39:1%

13.1"

1J1
1%

619.5

653.4

13.4"
1JE
38.9
39.0%

13.4%
18.3

....

39.0%
6.1'4

1m

165.6
184.0

238.6

236.4

10.6%

11.0\
11.1\
16.5%

16.0"

18AI

15.5"

15.7'

-3%

..

u.

.21
8.11
.43
211
1.33
1%

6A%
160.9

4%

..

10.64

5.1"

5,71

1JJ2.7
311.3
2JlO.9

241.1
440.8
318E

8.5'4
15.3"
15.a%

3%

1.6%
15.8'"
15.3%

-3%

14.9

E1
.1%

31.
52.9
3UII
5.1%
229.0
384.3
349.8

...

15.'"

1V"
3.

....,

30 .
16.8

E2
.1%

...... ...

.."
-16.0

.154

;;;

...

15.8\
15.4\

-3%

13.5"

131%
1%

'1'"
110"
-Zl'

'~.

"__

""oil
pII'' e-

DWd. o.d'd,.,

III

1.D' Cap'1 SpondInI "" III


"'00 Boal YIIuI per Ih

--=..=.17.75
"3 75

1053.6 10891
1170
14.0% 12.31 11""
16.6
21.0
33.'
18..
50.' 64J
3B.5" 32.9'11 33.'"
5.9'11 lOll
5.7\
21.
153.0 2313
341.7 134.1
215
381.6 'BOA
9.7\ 10.1% 10.0%

5".

Avg .'P",Rdo
RIkUY. PIE Rdo
AYIIAnn'l [b'd YIIId

1%7' -I~I
11'" _M_
llnll
33.. O__
NoI_I~l
33.'" IrlCDl'llliuRill
lOll IIot!'roItM_
>to W_I
Cap'\ I\ooWI

'"

zoo

lllnlT"'_~1

ft. SIIr. f.Wtr (~i


10.0% RRim 0111* CIlp'I
R_
... Slw:E""",
'1'"
.. C",Eq
11'" R_
-3lI Al-Dil4tf.1o

Nel PRII

sa
53.35
W
3."
.1'
f.I>

30.00
30.
III
1.05
.2ll
1100

It'"
45.

11.
33.'"
l5lI
'15
150

...

..

,.

10.5%

11.'"
-3lI

BUSINESS: IIMlCiIJtI Corp. designs, miilnufldurvs, & disi'ibuR!i II


ji)e of med.btJ eqLIi,:menl & supplies b t'JIlI home heallJ.anl &
extended-<:8r'e mlds. Products Q:UIe 1TIa1lll. & moklrired lfhe8Ichan, hOl'T1lK:af8& m.nr,g I'M:Irle beds, & oxygenconcenbtan.
Sa_ mil: Standard Products, 31%; Rehab,33%; Disi"DuIBd, 14%;
Respl1ltl:lly, 9%; Continuh;l CIIni, 4%; 0thBr, 3%. AcquJ8d Sub-

mban Ostomy SIJS)pIy, 1198; SMI 10199. '02 chlpr. me: 9.4%. Has
abDUI 5.400 ~
AriIIJ c.pitll Management, Inc. owns
19.3% of lXII'mIOII; ()II"1CIIIrSIdirel:bs
CM'II
11.4% 01 amnon;
97.1%, Class B (4103 Proxy). Chalmil:n & CEO: A. "a!Belli Mixan,
III. Inc.: Ott. AddnJSs: One Irmcare Way, P.O. BcD: 4025, EIyIill,
OH 44036. Telephone: 440-329100. WIIb: """.irMlC3I1t.a:m

Invacare's new-pl"Oduct introduction


initiative seems to be coming along on
schedule.
Newly Introduced products ae
counted for nearly half of North American
equlprnent sales In the home-care channel
at the end of the first quarter. up from
421%at the onset of the year. In all. the
company expects to replace 90% or Its
North American Installed base by the
rourth quarter
2003. Recently, the cornpany rolled out its Home Care Bed .product
line. The more-durable. easler-to-clean bed.
Is Interchangeable
with the current !nvaeare Bed Fleet. which should result in
long-term savings for Invacare as well as
Its
customer'S .
because
of
reduced
maintenance ~uirements
and lower cost
of
Other introduetJons on the
horizon In ude the Storm Sertes TDX
power wheekhcilr line. whiCh 'is expected
to be released by the end of the month
and a new scooter line. which should be
brought to market by the amclusJon of the
year. Nonetheless.
We have lowered our full-year 2003
share-net estimate by a dime. In order
to meet its tarBet by the end of the ~ar.
Invacare has stepped up its R&D an ad-

vertlsing budgets. which. along with an


aging .product line. has put a great deal of
pressure on operating margins. In fact. the
company's operating margin fell nearly a
full pe.rcentage point in the first quarter
versus the same period last year. Moreover, top-line growth will probably remaln
slUggish. since soft. home care dealer
demand continues to lake its toll on the
U.S. home care equipment market. Still.
Invacare should .begIn to recognize
the benefits of its initiatives in 20001.
The new, higher-margined
lines, which
w:U1 likely come to dominate cmnpany
sales by the second half or the year. ought
to alleviate the C1.1lTet1t pressure on margins. And the lower-rost offerings should
have a positive effect on top-line expansion
as well. h~g
to combat the competitive
pressures
imports.
The overhaul
of its product One along
with the a~
of the baby-boom gen~
eration
ould
spur
respectable
share-net gains fof' Iovacal'e out. to
2:006-2:008.
Therefore.
these neutrally
ranked shares offer worthwhile long-term
gains at their current quote.
Andre J. Coslanza
June 6,2003

or

ownershJJ'

....

ndi- Or

-_.""\tl-

d-"..-.g"*Mug.
dZIiI liIIe I.l..m. Div'd pI.)'INnt dn.:
Jan~,
April, July, 0ciDbliIr.
[ffl'd reinYestnerrl pI;In ~iablil.

1"I!lIINI. TKbIII ~
b IIIUlaIlIlan!. 5IlUItr5"*'-ItDbe~
.. Is~
....
ERRORS. OROMlSSlONS
HlRE ... ThiipllllinliClllis1h:ly"'~-'MIn~irumlllI'1e.
iI '"7 ...... *dIllIIi: 01_ kir.. II" nldb ganIirJ. -*-'i1ftJ pi-.:! ....
~

--*'

QRNff
...

..""'" -

""
""'"
214

".1
14.9
7.7
I II
I
eYA!.lJElJjE PLII.IjC.
19911 1999 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
4UD Wapll'th
21.98
2.7.44 29.30
33.35
34.32 35.95
31.05
2.55
3.02
~t5
~
2.39
2.18
3."
1.33
1.50
1.91
2.05
2.15
140 Earning.
1.65
1.n
A

.,

I
1993

11.6%

CufRInl AssIrts

40

'" TOT. RETURII 4IDJ

1~.

12

43
24131

18.

50

"

18

Zl.1)J

CURRENTPOSrnON

60

30
25
20

(.

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 3131".3


Total o.bt $225.0 mil. DUlin 5 Yn $150.2 mil.
LT o.bt S223.6 mt.
LT lntlrat $13.0 mi.
(LT iIt.. earned: 7.51; tal inl coverage: 7.4.1)
f"% nI Cap'O
Las., Uncapltalind Annual retrials $11.8 nil.
ND Ddnld Bend Pl:nllon Plan
Pfd Stoet NofJll
Common $tocll3Q,B26,541 shs.
as CJf5lMl3
Ind. 1,112,023 Oass B Iihs., wrth 10 votes each.
(Enrcis.lble options 7.8%)

Co J.\"IJ..I
........
ReCEivables
~_,
(UFO)

.--

..

.--.- -- ...
--- .. --.-

10

I' .'

..

'IIj,

'"

T.IIrvet.price Range
2006 2001 2008

_75

Percent

..

28.9

28.5

34.3
2&.7

-3&.9

4'.3

;-11111 ."'

10.1
.15

35.8
18.4

I1'JllI'1

.. .....

.48
1.42
22."
".9
2.04

17A

0 93 OI\'D
YID
0.2%

IIhlll

I'

' ".,t

50

..

..

...

28~

15.1) RElATM
11.0
P RAllO.

1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
9.59 10.63
7.14
.23
9.98
.81
EI
:J1
.34
.62
.25
.12
.53
.63
.13
23
.13

..

19.1

g
tltdi.,::

1987

.16
1.09

,... ,...

"".3

..

...

"' -..
,

23970

.~

ilck:lfes ten'nlll/l

,".1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
000
1 0 1 0
0 0 1 1 0 0 1
Decisions

23767

-33.3
22..

-20 ..
16.'

,~
'.

."

eo

~,

ee.;'"
;,c

Zz"

..... ....... .......,

Ul.'
12.6

~::~=
~

JASONDJF.

o
o

10.6

LEGENDS
_
lz.olC'lll~'!Il

ReAWe PrEe

w'lTDtaJ
Prtce
GItn
RdIm
70 (+115%~

...,
"".

"'~

H~h:
low:

l1'CHNJCAL
BED .Ill nlll-MIIRO
2OQI.4I PROJECTIONS

..'"
""

PRICE

I "8.3..

3 ..........
3""'''''/11
3 '-","/MIl

ltIEUIIESS

II\5W:ter Decisions

I~coo 32 471:RAm 15Wroln

INVACARE CORP. NYSEIVC

...

III ~

mid-

thL

pIIt

prlllllxl

eamp:nf
... _,.......
StDck's rica StBllly'
PI1cII Growth ~
E.mfngll PrwdldmIIty
I

I',

8+

eo
1IO
100
:

II:

II-

JACK IN THE BOX NYSE.JBX


4 ..... 5l1Wl
3 "'Y1'ID
4 _ediJlllJ

TIlEU1lESS
SAfflY
TICl1NICAL
lED.

...,
-.:::.,.., "'., "'.,..
a

J AI

Return
23%
12"

1.D. Ca!h TIrw" p Ih


R.etnre Pm ~gtt1

.2.1.0

.22A
12..

Nil

9J) ~~0.63~

29.'

16.2

305
18.4

34.'

22.5

.21.6
15.0

.34.2
14.3

..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..

.r

"11'11.,'

il';;

'\

;;:.

I.
_/,111-

III'

Ji

__

......
......

Pe~l

"

..
..
..

..
..
..
..

..
..
..

..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..

"

''".".

1.89
.67

"

..

.,

..

AnnuilIll1ln1aIs''S1;m:B
mil

Stock None

Cammon Slocll 36,005,907 !lhs .


as Of 5123103
MARKETCAP: $n5 million (Small Cap)
CURRENTPOSrnOH 2001
2002 4/'J.03

..,

ca:'~

21.8
29.0

Reoaivables

~ntory

(FIFO)

67 .

124.7
55.0
2.3

Cul'l'8nl-Aswls

AcQ5Payabltl
Debt Due

0Ih0.-

169.6
228 .

5.'
2.6.2
29.'

51.1
112.5
59.2

.2

30.7
32.0
37_7
108.6
".7

106.3
187.9

17.4- .4-

333.'

217.8

2.5

21.12
.O!l
d."

..

16.19
d.85
df.7T

..

21.~1
1J7

.19

.-

32.27
293
1.77

..

38.06
3.10
1.95

..

14.1
.88

.52

..

.....

12.0
.68

1232.1 10~8.5 10lU


1062.8 1071:7
8n
10.2'> 11.5'
2.9\
5.6'
J7j
35.8
365
53.5
39.9
<144.1 d36.3 d69.0
ZO.1
35.3
., zon
..
..
21-"
NM!' N'"
NMF
In
3.3'
dlD9.9 1140.0 d34.'
d5D.6 d93.D
500.5 441.8 ~2
396.3 3462
~1.,4
139.1 100.1
31.3
81.9
NIlF 9.6% 12.8'
NMF
.MF
NMF
NMF
NMF
39.0% 40.2%
NMF 39.0'" 401'"
NW'
NMF

1224.1
14.5,"
~2
11.1
32~%
5.8'
d1.t3..f
320.1
131.0
19,2%
51.9%
51.9%

1456.9
13.4'
45.9
76.5
31.0'Ji
52%
d131.8

..
..
..

..

2lo9
".57

..
..
..

..

.70
.81
38.8u

21.04
1.44
.51
-'
.85
1.31

"'.30

l38

..
..

..

..

.,.5
-15.1

..

..

,4>

..

193
3.61
J7.9J
9.5

..

3.51
S.69

.,20

..

303.5

211.8
11.4%
35.'"
35.1%

.,

42.59
3.50
1.97

..

3.32
8.25

~6.72
3.78
2.11

..

51.00
'.25

l33

..

~C
A

'Cuh_"porlll
InKngs.-.
AI.
.,

.,
.,....
1-......::
... "'SIAn,,'
;;;<;
U5

.,'"

175
12.10

""

!USJNESS: Jact ir the Bm: lite., IbrmerIy bJcMn as FoodmatBr,


Inc., owns, operates, and franchises JId. 1'1 ,hIt Bo.r quck-servi:e:
IIlwnbllf9S"I85talllillnts. The 52-year-old d1a1l'1 CDI1sislscf 1,897
unb. rJ which 1,527 lire cmnpany-operaEi:l_nd 370 .e r.lllctlised
(as of 4113.'03).M.pty d remlhm.
.-e czmHIIy kx:aUiId iI the
WesEm and southwestern martet, rI the U.s. 0riv&-1h'u 1Ia1es ac:-

as"

coum

I-lIa
7~00
~15

.,

105

Dlv'd. Dtc:I'c1 pII' It!

110 C"" Spoodio8 por III


15.1D B.... VoIuo por '"
8
115
P do
.75
RIIItiY. PreRdo
..
..
..
I- -'VI All,,' tb'd rMld
1633.3 1833.6 1966.4 1m
2175 [ll...... ~l
11.9% 11.1," 10.55 Ill.5lI I_M_
12.6'
56.8
70.3
7U
111.0 D~~.I
642
77.~
84.1
93.~ 74.0
71O N.ProI1
___ TaRN
31.0%
31.0lI 31.0lI
35~% 33n
NoIProIt_
4.8'1
3.111
11ll
~.8%
'.7%
d1D9.1 d1022 d220.9
dlM1 IIIMI " ..... 8 c.p'llowili
JOI)
JOI) 1aI8T ... llobt (1n'Il
2112.6 219.7 143.4
316;,4 "'13.5 .... 1
~IO
515
. onTOll! Cap'
1~.1% 13.9'1 11.3'
Ill.5l1 1D.5% RdIm
5hr.E ....
20.3% 20.1% 1~0lI 1~0lI R.......
24.5"
1~0lI 1~0lI RGiMd to tlll"l Eq
24.5% 20.3'
20.'"
.,
.,
..
~a-IDN.tPraf
~2~
10.54
39.'"
12.9
.86

3.70
12.04
".56
12.1
.64

~.1

'2.0

23.'

3 2004 0YALUEUlEPUB
51.55 111.40 RIWIIUllpII'lh
~15
t.U

f-7.5

00
2~OS
3l
1U

.,

.J5
Z7lIO

11.511
100

110
Jl.0lI
~Ill
IIIMI

115
1D.55
115%
12.5ll

fOl .pprtr.Un8f8Iy
of tJlal 101m <II trnlt/fillJ)'-OflfDfsd
IocaIiDns. Acq. Qdoba Res1alllillni Corp., 1413. Has about 44,000
1IfIIpkJy8es and 500 s'*eholdss.
1d dl""anllk8c:bs as _ group
own 6.2'10 rA cormaI (1103 prm:y). Chalman & CEO: RDbst J.
Nugent Inc.: DeIIwar&. Alkk: 9330 8aIboiI AliI!tIH.S8n Dago,
l?A 92123-1516. Tel.: !lS8-571-2121. Web: www.jidlrthebaJ:.c:om.

including premium sandwiches and a line


of gourmet salads. that should eventually
improve its sales performance and. broaden
its appeal to customers. Additionally, we
expect lower corrunodlty prices and 01180lng cost-cuttl.!18 initiatives to take some
~sure
off of profit margins.
e company continues to pad Its bottom line by seUing restaurants
to
I'ranch'see5.
In the flscal second quarter.
JBX sold five company restaurants-to .ran.
chtsees (for a gain of $0.17 a share) a.. part
of Its strategy to boost the system's overall
~tabillty
by reducing the company-tochise unit ratio from 80-20 to roughly
65-35. We think this plan makes sense,
though II hasn't proven to be a big hit with
shareholders. because it diminishes
the
quality of the company's earnings. In fact.,
JBX shares 'have traded. at a lower relative
PIE mulUple since the company introduced
the refranchlslng plan last year.
This untbnely restaurant laue is best
-avoided URtiI sales tteRds t:urn favorImable and lndusay
fundamentals
prove. The questionable earnings quality
here also makes us bearish on the stock.
Justin Hellman
June 13. 2003
net does not .td to ,..COIIIIp.ny'I Fm.ncilllIN"gtIl
B

Jack in the Box's operating envirorunent remains


chllly. Sluggish economic
Past Eat'dw.'02
conditions In California and other key
'Yn.
tD ...
western markets and aggressive dlscount11.5%
75%
Ing within the fastfood burger Industry
"Cash FJow"
36.0"7.5"
..
Earnllgs
'2.5%
continue to take a heavy toll on the rompa..
..
0MdendI
10'
top line. In fact. in the second quarter
BCIOk Vlllue
5.'" -48.0% 15.0%
o IIscaJ 2003 (year ends September 28th),
FIocoI QUARTERLYREYEIIIIfS Iloa)
Fu'
Y., Oec.Per ".Ptr JUQ.Per Sep.Pe FbcoI, same-store sales at the restaurant chain
fen 4.3%, on lop of a 0.3% comp decline a
~76.8 370.5 390.3 395.7
1633. year earlier. And while comps are apt to
1833. strengthen B bit in the mming periods. we
2001 540.7 ~15.6 436.1 441.2
463.~ 1966.~
2002 594.2 447.6 e1.2
2D03 8113 463.' ~U 410 2035 think they're unlikely to reenter positive
territory until sometime next year. The tnf55
415
515
2175
5lI
dustry leaders. McDonald's and Bw-ger
"EARNIIGS
PER'SHARE
A.
'u'
Y., lK.Per "r.Per Jun.Ptr $lp.Pe F1.... King. remain locked in a bitter price war.
Y., This means that JBX will probably have to
.52
.41
.53
.51
1.97 expand its dollar menu in order to stay
2D01
.81
.46
.50 "2.11 competitive, a rrMlvethat could well pres.55
.2lIQ2
EI
.45
~I Ul
.60
UI sure the top line and decrease sales of
2D03
.56
.48
combination meals. Mean.51
.41
.53 .53 U5 high-margin
while. the company is still playing catchll\IAR7BLl
DNllBIDS
Pili
CoJFilII
up with the sector's t;hlrd-largest partJclMar.31 JUI.3I 50.30 DIe.31 Y.,
,"""
pant, Wendy's, when It comes to -offering
1199
health-consdous
conswners
low-eaJorie
NO CASHDIVIOENDS
nonburger fare.
2001
B8NG PAlO
Results ought to improve over time.
2102
JBX is rolling out several new .products.
2003
CurntnlLiab.

-AHI(UALIOO'ES Pal
1nn.
~_"'''I
Revenues
4.0%

-.--..
-

.....
.....

nrs

....

."'"
'"

... :
...."" ......

'". ,...

1.53
2.25
",:10

121
3.64
382J

.-

"

Ho o.tJnltll Bealfit Pusion Plan

..

1.99
6.41
.51
18.0
1.O!l

(40% rA Cap'Q

pfd

df.f5

..

CAPITALSTRUCTUREu of 41131113
Total DebtS301.~ml. Du.1n 5 Tn $1SO.0ml.
LTtnternt $25.0 mil
LT Debt $299.0 mil.
Ind. '15.3 ml i'1 caplalzed lease obiptilltS
leues,'Uncapibillud

75

32.22
.25

3D
2S
2D

10

12

31.29

.0

I"

"""I' I

1L111

"

..
..
..
..

..

..

-.
..

2008

....

.. Tot. RE1URJI iID3

~'

"

..

2007

50

.,

~-~

29522

..
..

2006

GO

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1~:

..
..
..
..
..
..

Target Price Range

.0

M D J F

''''0

11.0
55

F,;'

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000000000
000000000
Institutional DecislDns
102.1
02
T1
5ll

~~

7.3
3.3

niin9
lIedi~:13.0

AIIn'I Tatal

((~WZI

10.8.
3.'

E
21 59jrRATIO
106C

CCv~"'Jf~
lC,

2006-08 PROJECJ!O_~
Price
Gain
Hlgh
50
Low 35
+60%
Insider Decm:ion.

14.0
7.5

low:
'.1
lEGENDS

O.oo.lIb.lUI)

.15

Ul5

High:

I~ECEHT
PRICE

."

....

QuIrI=t

(A) ThII comPMY'l fISCal )lIllIf is 52 or 53 ouI!tanding. EJlt:kJcIes nonrecurring gainf(bss):


(D)
shn
weeb eming Ih8 Sunday Cbs8s11o 5eptem- '00. $0..58; 112, (SO.26). NlIxI. Mnlllgs report encJ lalal in 1 due 10rounding.
ber 30lIl.
dlll in rnCI-Augusl
(8) E.ni'Jg!l bned 01"1 average dlL$d ShinS eC) In rniiDnI.
CI 2O:ll. \/All! l.tIl!'~~
ns8ftIIl. fldllll
~
Is ....
LIRIIl ~DetiNll
(D'IIe',**" "1$1ftIIIIl!tII
'IIItal ~
TH[~lSl)l
"lilly tit ~

leal SInd

[ORNl'flRRO~OROUISSlONSHER[IN.1bIs~i5*iclJb~~_,IIaktiN="'''''I&.''''
_
....
NIl b !I!N"*lQ III.-..ing.., ~.

'1II5IIIIMa"1II)' pd&d. .....

*':tift:. poIIlbIiIn.

PIb SlablRIJ
PIb GrowIII PwsiIIIIIlm
Eanllnp Pr.cIIdabIItJ

65
100
65

&~

rt:"L 1itJa.
...a.

prlIIIIIcL

I'.

:11:

II'.

KELLWOOD CO. NYSE-KWD

TIIEUIIESS3

3 N~llZ1!1O

wm
TECHNICAL
BfTA

RWlIlnl102

.15

3 ""'"'''"

...,
...,

272

14.3

15.8

22.,

20.9

16.6

13.6

38 .
19.6

36.7

28.9
16.3

22.5

23.3
13.6

25.5
17.3

32.5

30.5

..

IIIII

'I

~
.~

""~
~;J,I".

JJASONDJF

.....
.,~

~'I"

IIlh

J""

II hi

.0
50

~,-

..

"

- ~--~-

30
25
70

,11 .. 1"

"
10

--.....

"'.,75 "'.,
"57
20857
58

....."""

21~

22J4O

1~.
3~

"'"
11>
""'"

..

5~.

."

...

".1

160
".1

7.0

...... ---

'00'

,,.<

-..:....

."

'00
Nd_
.... ~.J::'I)

.a

,.'"
~'" Nd""'It

zn

...

.....

ea:'ls's'...
Receivables

7.5

'" Tot RrTlRI WI

'2

7.1
99~~~
1997~98
2004
VALUEUIE PIlB. ~C.
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995~99~
52.03
51.40 ~
99.80
86.22 100.00 105.75 WnI*M ,.
40.91 43.15 44.18 ~.66 44.55
69.06
71.96 '2.82
77!>6
59.80 104.10
241
201
290
253
265
3.01
m 3.35 230 3.88 2.91 317 4.15 tlO elM Row" per III
258
270
1.54
1.70
17.
1.31
1.68
1.95
216
251
1.56
208
110 Ein*Ig.,.1b II
1.67
.69
1.23
1.17
1.31
1.70
1.48
1.87
.54
.14
.53
.65
.~
.64
.~
.64
.~
.14 Dlv'da DId'd per Ib C
.53
.60
.60
.60
.48
.42
.49
.53
.53
.81
.59
1.86
1.22
.84
.55
.10
.15 CIJII SplncfIll.II per III
.61
.55
.77
1>5
Jl
.35
.42
1>5
.59
13.51
1U4 14.59 15.32
16.D9
19.00
19.94 >1.81
11.15
11.17
11.31
1266
16.47 11.86
17.04
9.63 10.93
'US Book VaIuIi pIl" III 0
-'lOO CamMoi'-Shs Outit II
.1
27.74
.9 ~1
25:"57
20.
1.13 2123
.12 21.5
.11
n.'" 11,41 11." 11.70
Avg Mn'l PIERda
... 1
13.9
13.9
13.1
14.0
1.3
13.9
1>5
11.1
32.
12u
12.
11.9
11.6
9.1
.19
.41
.11
.68
. 2
.2
1.17
.93
.13
.93
.68
.80
R*1in PIERdo
Jl
2.~
.89
.1'
3;]~
3.0%
24~
20~
2.5%
AV; Ann' [iv'd Yillld
3.01
6.4%
3.4%
29~
3.0~
2.3~
23~
23%
21~
3.4'
3."
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE as of 211ft13
1203.1
1364.8 1466.0 1519.9 1781.6 2151.1
1565.3 2362.2 2281.8 2204.1
2700 ..... 11dII1
Tatal DlbI S306.1 mi. Due in 5 Yrs $36.8 mill
6.4%
611\
55~ .1~
HI 1.4~ 7.8% 6.9~ 6.5%
1.'"
1.'" ......... "';0
LT Int.rut $25.0miilL
LT DIM $278.5 mil.
34..
25.1
281
28.3
29.6
33.4
19.1
m 324
320
28.3
Ind. $129.4 mil., 7.625% debs. due1tv1!i12017.
35.6
28.0
59 .
60J
35.6
51.7
lU
25.1
041.0
36.'
Ind. $1.0 mil caplaliZ8d leases.
41.6%
40.9~ 42.3%
42.7% 422~ 41.2% 40.2~ 38.6~ 3HI 35.'%
(33% of GaP1)
(Telal ilIrn!sI COYlIAge: 2.&)
.l5.'" InCQIH Tu RIll
1M; 1.K
247;
1.6%
1f~
2.6%
23%
2.'~
3.'"
VI"
Itllg/n
LuSeI, Uncapitliliud Annuall8nlabi $27.4 mill
416.5
544.6 539.8 589.4
lOll
150 W_g
2824
238.1 241.1
465.5 576.1
Cop' 'IIOWI
236.'
No DIlflnMl Bendt Pan.ion Plan
V
150
153.0
144.8
125.4
109.8
242.1
221.1
346.5 411.3
307.9
.....gT ... Oob!I~ml
301.0 308.2 325.2
456.7
559.1
615
W 9Ir .., ...... 1$nIII
347.8
3641 4461
445.9
431.1
PhI Stock None
8.811.Sl1.!Ill
&..4%
5.6%
1.81~
'D.Oi
9.'"
9-'"
Common S1ocl26.234,407 sftalVl
".9%
T.... E~~
8.6%
7.8%
9.2%
as f1f3l171D3
9.2% 14.11
11.6"
'.1~
10.5"
11.1"
13.4"
11'"
1~'" RIbn on Shr. E
IIARKET CAP: $115 million (Small Cap)
6..
7.K
4.0%
6.9%
1.6% 10.21<
.1~
4.6%
10.0% R...
1DCamEq
10.6"
4.'"
CURRENT POSrrlON
2001
211103
2000
Z",
32'10
50~
45~
35~
23~
41~
30~
m 20lI All DlY'ds III Nil Prof
32%
33~
:::.:

...,.

.. R_ ...

...

11lU

O.

.n

1.15

Jlf$
,~O
.10

1.41\
"00

..

LOll

ff5

,.'"
u~

......
,.."
750

'lOll
10.0%
11ll
MJO; a.t. ChitJrens.ellf, 002. Sot!

BUS~ESS: KeIwood Cornpally, headqualtsnJd in st l..Du1I, Missowi, is I lBading marteter of app;nl, predominantly wmJ8fI'S.
and conslMW sdI goods. SpeciiJIZ:ing it branded .s W8I as
priw ..... ~ ~ucts,
lie COII1p11nyrniIIt8b 10 81 channels elf dl$mbution, hm distOunteR to depannent 1IiM'es, wilh products and
lnnds Iai:nd .. the spectic ctIanniI. AcquiecI frizi. 1Z196:

f(DR!'t, 4,$9; BD!.Jr ~~


home fashions busiless, 12194; cbsed Saiplln ManLhdUling,
10195. Ha. roughly 24,000 ~
.. ; 3,140 sl.tlldrs. on. & d. CIWII
5.7% of a:mnon; Artiu.n Par1nen, 8.1% (4103 Proxy). Pr8sJCEO:
Hal J. UpbiJ. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 600 Kellwood Pkwy., P.O. Box 14374,
st lOlris, UO fi3m,. Tet: 314-576-3100. WQb: w-.twdm.com.

Kellwood is operating in a chilly busi


ness climate. The market for women's
sportswear. which accounts for more than
Un.
~""'\po"..) llYn.
50% of the apparel maker's top lJne. con5.0%
a5~
Sales
7.0'"
tinues to shrlnk.. In fact, it oontracted by
"Cash FIaw"
10.0%
2.0%
5.5'"
Eamilgs
6.0%
8.5%
12.5"
12% In t1:le fourth quarter of fiscal 2002
DMdanlb
-.5%
1.0%
2""
(ended January 31st). owing to cautlous
5.0,,"
4.0%
fO.OK
Book Value
buying on \he part of rela11er.; and conIl'JARTERLTSA~
~.
swners. The important dress category was
~::'
AlII'..
JIIL31
1
In.31
~
particularly weak. The oompany's primary
649.5 469.3 1lli1 540.3 2362.2 customers, the major department
store
2IOt 1lI9.' 501.0 601.4 410.0 2281.8 chains. also continue to lose market share
2002 570.1 463.3 633.' 537.3 22D4.1 to dfscounters and spedaIty shops. Against
21103 675
~ 14J 835 2100 this backdrop, KeUwood Is being hard715
17l
110
110 2750
pressed to generate revenue growth. NoneEARNIIGS PER SHARE A.
t.heless, acquisitions (most notably. the
... .30 Jul.31 0<1.31 ""';]1
company's mJd-2002 purchase of Gerber
d.D7 '251
1.11
.28
1.15
Childrenswear) and a revamped men's
1.56
2011
.08
.61
1.01
d."
sportswear line are lifting sales. We expect
208
2002
.62
.18
.90
.38
175 the top line to pick up even mOTe steam in
2003
.55
.14
.31 1.15
the months ahead, thanks to several new
.13
1.3D
.12
marketing initiatives, including brand exQUARTBU.Y DIYI)EHDS PM! C
Full
ea'
tensions and introductions, licensing arendar Mar.31 Jlln,30 Sep.3D Dec.31 Yur
rangements, and strat~c
alliances with
.64 additional retailers.
1911
.16
.16
.16
.16
at's more. the
.64 withdrawal from struggling businesses,
.16
.16
.16
.16
lOOt
.64
.16
.16
.16
.16
.64 such as outerwear and ratnwear, and the
2002
.16
.16
.16
.16
ellmJnaUon of underperforming
brands
2003
.16

and private-label programs should take


pressure off oC gross margtns. Meanwhile,
An increasingly
lean cost structure
ought to serve the company weD in
fiscal 2003 and. in the years to come.
We expect operating margtns to gradually
widen over the next several quarters. as
Kellwood realizes savings from recent actlons to streamline its warehousing and.
distribuUon infrast..ructure. The corney
should also benefit from continuing e rts
to improve the competitiveness of its
sourcing. KeUwood. aggressively lookJng to
cut costs. has now moved most of its
sewing and sourdng operatlons to the Far
East. where cheap labor and materials are
readlly available.
Neutrally
ranked
Kellwood
shares
have limited investment appeal at this
juncture.
We encourage investors to seek
out a more attractive entry point. however.
Alt1:lough t1:le company faces an uphiU
battle in the near term. we think its financia! results wtll1mprove dramatlcally once
the :re.tail climate heats up and the new
marketing
and oost-euttlng' tnJtlattves
have had mare time to take hold .
May 16, 2003
Justin Hellman

10..4

211.9

6'2

Inventory (UFO)

OIhor

364.5
.032
29.0

318.9
363.5
31.4

326.0
382.7

Cumtnl. Assets
Accb Payllble
DebtOu.

901.1
154.6
131.5

763.0

942.1

-M

78.9

OIhor

Cunnt

RATES

187.0
27.6

26.'

243.2

Put

Post

41.5

137.9

362.5

liab.

ANNUAL

2006 2007 2008

",

000
100 0 0 0
200000000
.J.
110
1 000
0 0
,:;$.
InstituUOMI Decisions
10102
P""*,,I

t_ro-t Price Range

22.7

19.7

"

ftR55CIII

(.100-:1

79

26.9
19.1

Ann'lTotIlI
RRim
HiP.
20%
lJliIr
40
(+35%
."
Insider Decisions
Gain

sa

22.2

'e..'".u Di::ares

PROJE~NS

Price

High:

Low:

PHAUl.0 70 DMll'lD 2.1%


29.961~Ul 11.6(=~i1~)RElATIVE

LEGENDS
_
1.5.-CI5brwpsIT

ReAhe Pn;t S11l11g1l


J.4'Qf-Z" lit...

(l JXI. llllUl)

20.....

WCEKT
PRICE

138.1
352.7

......

Est'd'DO-'D2

..

-s:
--

e.

."

H'

I.W";

(A~''''''
,.. ....... ,. 31 d _,
"9B, 52.09; "02. 50.19. e..ot .....
'BO,
ca nd8r,l'M'; JRI" ID '89, ,ear ....ded A/6. 30. $0.24; '86, SO.05; '01, $0.09. Ned 9. reptri
'99 da1a b Iha 9-monI1 nnsitOn psOOd only. due IIIIe May. (e) Next div'd I118eting ell! MilY.
(B) DUed egs. EJd. llOrnICD. Ioss&s: '94,
Goes ex "*'-Jun. Pyni.. dillk abou1 u.. 29,
21113. YiIlIe liIe ~

TH[PUBlISIR15
II.

tit

I'I)TRE
..

,.

mcrwlII. fadUil mRlilll

..,

Jun. 25, S.p. 21, Dee. 20. (0) ,,>d. -.,.,


~~
$160.7 ml., SlI.2Blsh. fE) 111miL, ~ b sl:Dd:
spits. (F) 'lXl egs. don't swn due to change in
shs. out.
rn- S1lIUICe5 bdie'Il!lllO be rlllilUe MIl i5.pDliletl ....... --'e5 rJ ~.mll.
. n.splllili:llali5.*CIyb"""5-._~irtlOlll.lll.
part

is ~

SIILE ()j;lANYERR~OR(lJIII5S1ONSH[RE
5tftdcr ........

i1

...........

cr_

....

crlllllllll...

.....

1IIliI:r,.

c...p ..................

Sklcl'a Price$lablllJ
Prb GRnrlh PerUtanc8
Earnl. P~c:tUIltJ'
I

I'.

,"'"

...
1tI
2S
NMF

:11:

II',

KEllY SERVICES 'A' NOQKElYA


High:
Low:

lIIEU/IESS

SAfffi

2 ..
..,.,
... _LEGEND&
llD'

lICHNICAL

m"

15

L_mol

_"m""

"
5_-4

Price

,
'"
,
to" ~

Am,

Gain

l~l

1II1II

Rebn

50
35
+35% 10X
.Insider Decl5ion.
& O'N D J F II A II
000000000"-

"

22.

c.;, F..

26.20 I~TK)NMF(~:~:) W~NMFI~

"..

37.0

- p !II

25.3

==-

23.3

29.
20.3

22.'

'.

....

-.

....-..

---

.......
...

.. Tot REl\JRN, IID1


f".
3".

""
""'"
f2.0

1.5

-10.5

12.9

26.5

lie.

1996 1997
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
01-41
flUS
66.11 100.99 114.28 119.00 125.56 118.68 121.69 121.f5 121.10 RtvlllUII pII' a A.. '"
3.11
3.35
1.70
1.80
US
U5 "C.... _
~
W
l61
l66
3.38
1.92
l38
1.29
.<6
.52
.44
.ill ArnkIgI fill' III All
t5D
U3
l12
223
.18
.91
.95
.99
.ill
.44 Div'd. DId'd pIr Ih C
.83
.87
,.2
.94
1.65
2.14
1.19
1.00
1.U CII"I SponcIlng.. '"
J9
.96
1.04
us
13>8 14.67
15.02
1623 17.44 16.83 17.42 17.45 Il .. Book 'MI. pII' III
nlO
11.'2
35.7
u
38.07
35.5D ll;onnon5hlOU1lt'g
".53
".<>; ".15 35.61 35.87 ".1,
'loo
15.8
NMF
15.0
11.1
101
f7.0
"1
''-3
1-pIE ....
.n;
R_PlE_
1.06
.67
.66
NMF
2.S<'
t.t!
.94
.82
~
3.6\
1.6\
2.9\
1.9\
In 3..4% '.1'1\
Avg Ann' lIY'd '(!lid
2.7'
RnIII ... (InIIl,1Ii
26B9.B 33IJl3 3&2.8 l9l3
4269.t 4487' 42.56.9 4323.5
1.7'1.
ln I.'" '-'" 0 .............
4.8\
4.1%
4.2\
4.'%
4.5'
4'\
1'"
5U
21.7
28.9
361
39.5
~.4
16.1
28.3
".0
5D.' OopMi_I"".)
8..,
18.6
69.1
13.0
60.8
85.1
80.1
16.1
14.5
35.8 Not Pnoftll$nlill
10.0
38.1\ 40.6% 41.0'4 41.0' 4O.811ft 41.4' 40.0% 39.6" 44.011 44.011 IncorMTuRD
44.011
1.6\
1.8\
.IlI
lO\
2."
2.2"
I""
I.'"
316.0
336.6 363.6 293.-4
28<9 288.6 321.0 352.2
4IlIl W",,",g Cop" (loaMI
550
..
..
..
..
..
..
.. HI
..
HI
431.5 476.1 516.9 559.8 537.8 582.4 613.5 6071 619.1
810
UO SIt..
"\noIII1
3....
14.1" 14.6" 14.11 14.4"
15.8'1. 14.6" 12.8\
RItum on TlJ\IIC~'I
11.11%
2.7"
R_ ........
E...;n.,
14.11. 14.6\ 14.11- 14.4% 15.8% 14.6% 12.8\
2.7\
3.\
fl.OlI
9.4%
71\
NMF
1011 R.,..
tD COllIEq
8.0'
n
ROll
8.8"
NIF
AD [)tv'. to Nil ProI
~\
43'
43"
4'"

... ...

....

'"

40"

.0'

......

:~

TIiEI'UllUSHERIS~SIll:-ff:RANT[RRORS.OROIIISSlONSHREIN.~ilsQ:tyb~~nanarTlli""'iIUmIIll'Ie.rzc;piIIl
b~.

~",,,,,,,u"_flIII*::II*In.

"00

.... ....

40"

1.I"

." ." "'n'"


N' "':"~-=:""'_1 ...
"" ""
.,"
n" .'"
""
""

..

~:

'--iii

-- NIl_._
''11''''

"":::

....

..

...

"50

,..,

ternpor.lly posltlons) has actually declined

...

,.

15

7D.75

ng frm. in January ~. HItS apPflJ'llmte1y 8,200 pemlanem 1lIIlptJrees:; 5,300 Cbss A sh.-e/loldl!!lfs. OffE8l"5 and diudors awn
4ll.2" 01 CE A stock and 92.5% of C... B IbxIi (4ICl3pm:q).
ChaimanICEO: Tsence Adderley. Pr8sGfInIICOO: e.t c.mIen.
Inc.: DE. Adci"as: 999 West Big BeaY&" Road, Tro" WI 480&4.
Tal.: 81Q.38Z-4444. InWnat www.tel)'S8M:es.com.
further, but that corporations will likely
remain inactive on the hiring front for a
while lon~. Needless to sa)'. thIs bodes ill
for Kelly
rvlees. Since It appears unlike.
Iy that a turnaround in the labor market
Is imminent, we are remaining cautious
with our near-term share-net estimates.
EarnIngs prospects for the long term
look .].uite favorable, though. Given the
cycll
nature of the staffing business, we
think It is merely a matter of time before
hiring acUvity p1cks up. Indeed. assuming
the economic environment lmfroves slgnlficantly within the next 3 to years, corbr8te cllents should begin to rehire more
ely (both for temporary and permanent
positions). therefore pushing demand high
er for the stafftng oompany's services. As
such, we believe Kelly Services has a bettes- chance of bolstering top- and bottomline growth over the long haul .
At this juncture.
we see no compelling
reason to rush into this equi~. as its
3- to 5-year appreciation potent!
15 only
about average. Also, the stock is ranked to
underperform the broader market indices
in the year ahead .
J. Susan Ferrara
July 25. 2003

F."
so far this year, thereby restraining topM.f.Per Jlln.Ptr Sep.Ptr Dee.P Yoa. line expansion. In fact, revenues have
0BlI
1106
1154
1146 4487.3 been al1lng sequentially in the company's
2D01 087
1066 1066
1038
U.S. Commercial Staffing and Profes20QZ
000 1011 1123 1124
slona!. Technlcal. and Staffing Alterna003 11170 1112 1111 4JOO
tlves (PTSA) units. despite some progress
010 1130 UIO 1210
achieved in certain
areas.
including
EARMtGS PBt SfIARf: A
Ca.
F
healthcare and accOlUlting. And higher
u.P,r JUII.Ptr Slp.Per DeeP You slate unemployment taxes have continued
.45
.50
2.29 to exert pressure on gross profit margins .
2IIIt
.61
.73
.13
.01
.46 In the meantime. the lntenl3tlOnaJ segZOI1
.18
.13
20QZ
.51 ment has had a somewhat decent showing.
.01
.11
.18
.21
.11
.10
.411
.0'
.JI
.11 largely due to healthy demand for staffing
.10
.20
.JG
services in lhe Americas and Asia Pacific,
QUARTERLY DI'mfIIJS PAl) c:
CoiF
which has been offset by persistent weak1hr.31 Jun.3ll S. lI Dec.31 Voa' ness in continental Europe and the U.K.
.13
.24
.1A
.95 We do not expect
.1A
'011
a ;meaningful
.14
.25
.99 recovery
.15
.15
to occur this year. Recent
.25
B5
z001
.25
.25
.'0
labor market data indicate not only that
.10
.10
. 10
.40 the unemployment rate has deteriorated
.0
'0
~Alr ___
... s, __
1lot. Otgo_d,. ... ~.ICI_h...
t. IlI\"8StnQnt n:om. WII5iJcUfBd in AINo
1DrtaI/1y Ph:' iI miUI.a., Jun8. SBp8nb8r,
nues unti/1991. (B) Based on diU1lld shires.
and Dec8'nbar. (D) In miliona, ~
for
E.dJdes OM-Une gains:: '00, 14. Next.-nsb:k split.
CI 'l1Jn, 'MIe Llnt. AI
merftIlII. r .... ~1III1Io
~
IKn DJa5 bIIIiMld III be ~
..
~ p1JMelI ....
~
~1..,bellflllllllal2ll.--'!IIIIeII.~illllJ~*'thic

3.

I.

1995

QlJARlBlLYSALESIloaj

......

5.

25

-215
5".
CVALlElJIEP\Il

,...
"II. ..~5"

.....

Wi

'.

....
.... ...,

..."

..

U"

tal-

f.~~

386.2
(32,116,968 Class A nDll-valing shs.; 3,476.043
Class B vcll1Q sits cY. b1tD Class A slJs. on a 1.fCl" 11.5\
1 baSis as 01 21m3)
11.5\
5.-4'
IlARJ(ET CAP: $J2.5 rnllb (Small Cap)
54\
4<1"
ZOO,
3131~3
CURRENTPOSrnON
200'
BUStlESS: Kely SliIn'i::es.Inc. povides t8m;1cnry oftia!. cB'i:a~
73.1
martetng. tec:tmic8~ ligllt...fldustia~ and tBsting & hilling C8fVI:8S.
".1 10t.5
Receivable!r.
539.7
567.5
593.9
Kely Assis1IId l..Mng pITNIIes !xJrhe..an servic8s to inInn and
SO.,
0tIKw
59.' HIerly c~nts. Kelly has al:oul. 2.400 orrlC8SII the Unlltd ~s
Cumtrlt Assets
8702
719.4
726.9
and CMnIaS. n iI one d Iha two ilIrgesl suppliws 01 l~
79.2
=~ble
24.4 haIp 1el'Yi::e; 11 the United StaB. Aa:luinKI VOW"SWfI'. a slatI"_s32..
24.8
285.6
0l!NK
249.4
257.1
KeUy Services continues
to grapple
36 .2
CUrrentLiab.
348.2
367.2
with the effects or a soft employment
ANNUAL RATES
Past
Elfd
'00-'02
P""
JD3I"ket. Demand for staffing services has
1Un.
"<ta>o'1J"'I
not picked up SUbstantially in most sec~
ReY8flU.
11.5%
7.0%
tol'S. Although it appeared that the sltua''Cash FJow"
10.0%
3.5%
"'0%
-2.0% -11.0%
15.05
Uon had stabilized by late 2002. demand
3.0" -2.0%
1.0"
for Job placement serv:lces (particularly for
BOOkValue
5.0,,"
<.51'

5::~

.M

..

'1."

stock 35,593,01 1 shares

I.:.

"
27205

ca:'~

... _ .... ....

,.""

ooooooooof':

..

Target Pric. Range


2006 2007 20011

6.

{Ii

'"

....... . .

....

1.5%
27.1
19.0

-~ .

I',

29.
17.9

29.'
17.8
W:b'~'

26780
21405
4fl
1987 1988 1989
1990 1991
1992 1993 1994
30.91 33.93
36.66 39.11
3823 45.42 M.n 8U3
1.41
1.62
1.51
1.80
l10
1.29
I.as
W
1.61
1.02
1.18
1.61
1.89
1.90
1."
.63
>8
.1D
.33
.38
.<6
.53
.58
.63
.66
.43
.<9
.15
.28
.30
.32
4.91
6.13
7.55
9.~
9.14 lD.23 11.37
8.99
31.50 3751
37.51 37.60 37.61 31.11
3""
21.0
24.6
18.
161
149
14.4
28.0
11'
1.94
1.45
1.13
110
1.34
1.13
1.07
1.19
1.5,
l1\
21\
2.5\
1>%
2.ll'II
'<\ 19\
CAPR"AL STRUCTURE n of 3/31m3
1954.1 2362.6
Total o.bI $24.4 mil Due In 5 TIS $24.4 mil.
4."
4.6'
LT 0.111 NorNli
16.6
11>
~.6
61.1
LuMs, UnClipttaliad
Annual 18l11i11s$39.6 frill
37.1\ 38.\
23\
1.6\
No Odined Ben'" Pension Plan
pfd Stock None
315.8
29'1
Convnon

38.'

23.8

35.1

d!

WI 0 0 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 v
InliitituUonal Decisions
,"~.
11l2.J
42 p-m.~
34
43 traded
2

"' ,

38 .

32.'

iNJiute rrSJlOlr

- ... .... -- .

....
....

'ffi

3'.
23.0

36.6

R.~
PI'te '5111119111
spIl fII'!l3

'=.'"_.,

(11111w MlrRC)

~P.OJE~N~_

35.
22.2

l~eENT
P~CE

~~

.ct'. .

10
5
40

StaItIIfy

Prb Growth "r--.c.


Eunl Prwcictabllty

~u

iI

tiMl
I
plDdutl.

".

II:

II,.

KIMBALL
INT'L IB' NDQ.KBAlB
4

TJlEUJC[SS

'-!et!YUJl

SAFE1l'

3 Nel1n1SJ

TECHNICAl

aETA

.TS

HlQh:J

14.1

17.3

16.3

' . 4

11.9
~"'""~'
1-!,,.0.,,5L.,,,2."'CL-\"O.7
LEGENDS

RIiied snw

CIIIians.-Na
~
..

'2.1

23."
17.5

24.g.
14.9

21.0
14.6

18.3
10.8

16'"

10.5

17.B

16.3

12.7

'2.5

PriA R.~
2006 2007 2008

rl,.,t

'-=t==t==+=:::::;j;;:;::::j::=::j:==j==t==+==+==t==:t;:;:;:~;:;:;:;:;::;~"
l-

:::-:2.ful"~~c.~~~5h
12191

ooo-l.bIbI)

21.4

i1**s Ien'DiDn
11.1" ~III' "II

32
2'

'11_

--

"-'

- .-

""-

11.09
1.10

12.31
127

1. 04
1.32

14.46
1.51

13.13
127

14.54
1.48

17.06
1.37

.70

.84

.81

1.03

.71

.89

.72

.16
.38
4.68

21
.76
5.22

.25
.91
5.83
.39

.29

.33
.45
6.96

.35
.78
1.56

.39
.81
1.81

.49
6.5.9

'9.43
1.51

21.33
1.10

22.19
2.00

23.95
220

25.0$
2.16

27.45
2.31

30.61
2.35

.a3

.99

1.13

1.40

1.32

1.38

121

.42
1.10
8.29

.43
.82
8.84

.~
.79
9.39

.54
.80
1011
1.43

.93

.69

31.111 .1U5 Slllilpll"sh"


1.10
135 C.IhRow"pwlh

.sa

.64
.64
113
1.00
11.65 11~
37.

42J5
3.50

.10 E-nlftllSPII'Ib-

1.10

.N Dtv'e11 Dld'd PM' III C


1.10 elp' Spending per III
1115 BooIIYIIoIpII'lh
Jl
CIlfWfMln
111g

.18
110
fUS
ADD

822.5
722.'
10.2'4 10.4'4
27.3
2ll.1
35.0
30.'
42.6% 41.1\ 41.5% 39.6" 34.8% 37.1% 36.9% 34.K
33.6% 27.4% 3l~
4.6'1
5.'%
5.~
5.3\
5.~
4.0%
2.9% 2.2"
1.7'%
'2~ 4.3\
195.4
201.7 220J 243.5 259.7 211.7 190.1 180.9 188.2
f~
2.0
.9
3.0
2.3
1.9
1.7
2.6
3.3
2.3
2.5
333.3
371.3
391.0
'22.8
448.6
.... 3
..... 5
... ~.
452.5
44a
10.0% 11.241. 11.9'4
13.6%
12.2"
12.0%
10.3%
8.1%
5.8\
t5%
10.0\
11.2" 12.0'4
13.7\ 12.3'4 12.0\ 10.3% 8.2%
5.8%
".5%
~ 6.4% 7.1% e.6% 6.91 6.4% 4.9'
2.61
.5%
HIE
52%
51\
43%
41%
371.
44%
46%
53%
69%
91% 1201

3lO% InIXllltTuRatt
2.1" NIIlPrvlllbrp
135 W_oCop1(lnoWI
2.5 lonllTImIDIbIISnilI
4lIJ SIlr.-fq""'(~1

31.0%
U"
115
U

.4

.64
1.56
11.94

30.83
1.92

.64
1.15
1UG
'7.

.60
.64
1.00
1.90
10.89 11.51
., 1 oW.;';'

33.20
2.21

19.u

17.
1.12
1.15
~9~ ~9~

Leas ... Uncapitall::r:edAnnual renlals $6.6 milt

No o.fined-Ben.rl

Penston Plan

PIlI Sloek NOIIl!l

CClllllllOliStock 38,075,700 shareS


13,781,285 Class A
24,294,415 Class BE
as oI4I2Mt3
IlARKET

CAP: &5'75 million

(Small

Cap)

CURREHTPOSrrlON

2001

2002

ca:'~

80.0

12.6

Receivables
~~
(UFO)
CulTflntAuub
ADd.s PIIY81H
Debt Due

150.0

150.8

3131,m

87.e
123.4

..

7.5%

Rn.n

on Tot.IIIICIp'

525
12.5%

7,5" Rttum on StIr. Eq~


11.5%
10% RI1IInId 10 Con Eq
1.0%
72% AIIDlY"dl1oNllProi
'"'
/-;;BU'"..S;;;f.Eo;SSo:':-;.;;:.....
;:'n:-'.-:~::!::
....."""":': ...~.="':,.-:_~=;:.-L,"""=-.:,""!; ..:::::.,:', C'in=d=,,,,,,::"',.L,,,=_""",L.=,,,,'::':_:::::O
...'=", :::""",,=:'. ::'-;(3:O7;;:~';:).~
ofIi::e bnlLh Bfld sealing IInder Kinbsr, NalionaI, and HarprtIa
Fenign ops.: 11% 01 '02 salBs. Employs 10,032. Of. & dr. awn
btancfs; ofI'i:e furnituru sptems; hospallr, 1Jeatr.-ca, and home
34.8% rJ Class A.1Il1 B.1% d CBs$ 8 stoct; Semwshei'n Fmily
flM1m; flllllln components;
and skJre fixtlJf1l!l (f! aggregate
Trust, 5.9% Inti 1.5%, .. p. (!W2 Proxy) Ctnm. & CEO: Doug_
18~
153% or '02 salEls). Also makes 8IId'onic conQc1 a- Habig. Pres.: Jamn Thyen. Inc.: IN. Addr~ 1600 Royal St., Jlsper,

=..

~,",;:_"=":;_:::::!-"

':K~ 1~l ~1

"""'38i'3""164::2
1D2.0

104.5

341.4
83.9

29.9.6.9

sentll:ills,

pmarty

suppfying the fransptstion,

cornpuW, teIe-

IN 47549. PhOne: (812) 4!21600.lntlIIMI:

WlII'W.Urtlt.I.CIlIII.

Demand for KimbalJ International's


The restructuring
program launched.
office furniture reJDains tepid. Corpo- this past winter is proceeding accordANNUAL RATES Pal
Past Est'd'DO-'D2 rate customers are reUcent to ",~nd
or
ing to plan.. The centerpiece of the pro_
~'1:",(pwmJ
5:'7;"
refurbish their workspaces,
the gram. the closing of six plants, should pro''Cash F\ow"
. 0%
2.0%
8.5"
lingering
uncertainties
regarding
the vide an immediate Uft. to profltseach of
~~
1.0% -4.0% 12.0%
health of the economy. Assuming the econ- these fadllUes had been losing money of
Book Vallle
omy gathers strength
later this year, as late. These efforts ought to trim about 525
Fi.caI
QUARlBLY
SAW~~ '"
Fal we expect, demand ought to improve, but million from the cost struc~
by this
Y.r
F1N:aJ the process Is likely to be gradual.
time next year. once the program is cornEnm Stp.31Otc.31Ilu 1 uaJG Y.r This segment is also facing increased.
pleted.. Also. energy rests. pushed high by
foreign
competition.
The weaker U.S. the war in Iraq and cold temperatures this
doUar is not helping much on this front,. past winter, willllkeJy decline in time.
ZODZ285.8 296.6 290.1 300.0 1172.5 since the wave of imports Is largely coming
All told. we are optimistic that a SU52lI03 290.1 3Il2.3 285.9 291.7 f170
201M JfJQ
JlI5
115 m
tUtl
from China. which fixes the exchange J"ate tainable trend
of sequential
sbare-net
FiKal
EARNltGSPER
SHAREAII Fal of its currency to th~ dollar. Kimball's In- gains commenced
in the June
quarter.
S,p.3D Dlc.31 lar.31 Jvn.3D ~,=I ternatlonal
operations are benefiting from We estimate that KImball earned $0.15
r.;~+-""':-:"";':-=",,"":':'iOi'+TIHcWTency effects somewhat. but this busi- pet" share in the period. a ruckel more than
ZOOO .29 .30 .29
.33 1.21 ness represents only about 10%of sales.
in the tnunediate1y preceding quarter but
2001
.28
.32
.18
.15
.93 In contrast,.
the electronics
unit ought
still 50.04 below the pnoryear result.
2IIZ .13 .11 .20 .19
.69 to perl'onu fairly weD in the coming An above-average yield and the possi2lI03
.12
.14
.09
.f5.511
R1s1
I
bill

d
ZQCM
.20
,22
.23
.25
.go quarters.
ng sa es to automotive custy lor
ecent price appreciation
e...
QUARTERLYDJVI)ENDSPAI)ctamer.;. are more than offsetting weakness
make this untimely
stock a potentially
end., lar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 D1c.31:::
in the telecommunications and computer
rewarding 3- to 5-year invesbnent.
As.
r.:=-t'7.""-':;;=-=i;="'=:;;=+-'=;71
sectors. We expect this trend to persist.
long as earnJngs rise suffidently to cover
1899 .16 .16 .16 .16
.50' with one caveat:
should
the lncentlvethe dividend before
long (they probably
2DDO .16 .16 .16 .16
.64 driven growth In the auto markets peter didn't in flscal 2003). we do not expect a
2001 .'6
.1'
.16
.64
2D02
16 .16
16
16
16
64 out b'
elore the economy rega 1.ns t ts <.100tin g. chang e I n the companys. payout poll cy.
lOO3
KimbaU's prollts would probably dip.
Lars L. Bainbridge
July 11. 2003
(AJ F"rs:aI ~ IInds .Alnlll 3O!fI. (BJ Baed 011 dZ/JIi.. N8xI .-ninp rgpor1 GlIB 111J11j'-August. (E) am. B v.- (or 1 rnerTH of the BC&1f. Campany"s Ftnancfat Shnlftl
B++
=ntLieb.

tin"

trlr-o:

~j:t~

il:;;;

J:~

:: ::: ::: m:~~~:~~:j


1:

:,6 :,6 .

~
stllres Uwugh '97, then dlll*ld. ElI- (C) Dividends hisforbllJ PiHd f! the middl8 of \'otfIg'" oUMI" mmln is Init8d mainly 10condudes Cd-Im8 l..-.s: '92, 3; "94, 3; '96, Janl8)', Apri~ July, Odob8r.
soIIdatiDn, nKIIlI-, or dIssc*UJn. Enlillad ~ 2
dS,; '97, 2; '99, 9I!; '01, ~;
'02. 22;; '03. CD}IIIrnihJns, adjl.t.stlJd Q-splt
per ~.divdITIOnllhan etas A.
.. 2(1)3, ....
LiIe I'Id5IIiIg. lIk. AI rio#ls raet'nII. FlduIIlIIIIliriIll~
oIQRlIIllOIII ~
~
lo be r1IlieIR ... is puiiIIaI ......... --.lies II any Urd.
rn~ PUBUSiO IS NlJT AESf'ONSIllE lORIM'I ERRORS.OR CMSSlONSliER:[I'. Thii pYtIIialion is *EIf''' ~
-._
=CiIL RImII use. Naplll
rI~..,Ire"""1ISlIII. JDJIlElf~irIl1TJ~""EIf"'''lIIaellb
..ctltpolllild.

~."""'1I1t"'."""'"

$met's Pm

SW:b1MtJ

70

Pr1c8 Growth PwsBtMlce

20
10

Eamlngs ~
I

'.

: II:

II' ,

1.0%

LOCKHEED MARTIN NYSEllIT


SAFm

TECHNiCAl
BTA

'I

4 _.,., .. ,
2 RI5ed 3I2MJ]
3 Ri5edr.MD

TllEUNESS

.iO (l JJQ

..

LEGENDS

11.0 J Cull

l:';":l

MII\zl)

liGiin

Pri"
85
+70%1
60
+20%
Inaider Decisions
ASOJlDJF.","

LriIr

-.n::~ B
15%
15"

56.7
39.1

58.9
41.0

46.0
16.4

37.6
16.5

53.0
31.0

71.5
45.8

58.9
40.6

Target Price Range


2006 2007 2008

,,.

'Ih

.-~~~~
__ ....

iIdt*S

I,ll

TetenlOll

'ooo on.

---~___

111'TIIi

I"'ii"lw

.1'

.'

,II

. ..--"
-+--+---'r---h~.-'f=-'-1""",-r-.:f-t---t--t--t-....=---+--t--+--+----1I-"

..

"

.. -

..'.

''''

BO
64
48

, .T

Iiltrn-

I!;
. t,
':~~

g ~ g g g g g g g ri

,....... o..

48.3
36.5

~.:nslnn!i'b

.~tJ

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1;"+;

:::a-

.,

39.8
25.0

0Dli0ns:. Yes

2Q06.G8 PROJECTIONS
~

rllM'- p

High:
Low:

...: ......

"'TOl.RETURl5IIJ

__

32
24
20
16
8

.........

~~d~~~~~~oo
~J

1993 1994
56.56 57.55
4.34
4.60
free, stock-Ior-stodl: transaction. Under Ile
1.88 2.19
terms of the agreement, Lockheed share.55
Sf
hc;ders rocei",d 1.63 shares of the newly
1-35
1.28
formed companyfor each Lockheed share. 10.61 12.78
Martin Manella shareholders received smck 396", ",.'"

1995 1996 1997 1998 199~ 2~~ ~~:1 2002 2003 2004 Ii~&~~M
~
_
5753 ".n n.19 66.78 "."
58.68 ... ~
58."
10.55
ROO
111
'14'
4.96
6.08
5.'1
5.57 183
324
3.44
354
315
'.08 C
_' .. 111
U,
2.50
2.70
3.1l5 3.11
1.41 HI7
1.6D 2.34
1~ 1~ EImIDp,..IbM
4.15
.67
.80
.80
.82
.Be
.44
M
.44
.41
.51 D!Y'd. Ded'd .. 1ft c
1.011
1.34
1'1
1.93
U7
1.66
1.16
1.~
1.46
1.55
,.55 CII".SpondinI .. '"
1.75
13.68 15.19 13.31 15.60 15.99 16.59 14.61 12.89 105
1UO BodlYliln=,,~"'~O~+~lI-~'~'~
,,720 "" .......
w "'.30 3".78 43'.'" 441.", 455.
cO IsII
.

12.4
15.5
15.7
11.0
24.1
24.3
24.6
25.1 ~~~_
AvgAnn'
Rlio
.5.D
--.83
!fl
~
.88
1.37
1.58
126
1.37
R_PIERdo
1.08
--- 22% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 26% 1.7% 1.1%
.7%
A'll
lh'd ~~d
22397 229116 22953 26875 28069 26266 15530 25329 23990 26578 295GO 3Jl1JO 6IIn 11nlIl'
508
11.11
11.9-4 12.7,.
14.l'.' 11.111 12.8,. 10X
10.1%
9.9"
9.041
1.5%
l5% 1~Ii...
11.0"
936.0
937.0
921.0 1197.0 1052.0 1000.0 949.0
968.0
823.0
558.0
IDO
150 D..a~~~.)
150
829.0
955.0 1118.0 1205.0 1300.0 1184.0 575.0
432.0 694.0 1053.0
1NS
1145 Nit Prolt lInIIIl
USD
36.5% 36.61
37.~
39.51
32.9' 37.5% 39.5' 47.6% 37.1% 30.5'
31.5% 31.", IncorMTuRft
31.5%
3.71
4.21
4.91
4.51
4.61 4.!lI
2.31
f.11li
2.91
4.01
.ux 1'" NIt
01

in Man:h, 1995 when Lockheed Corp. (LK)


merged with Martin Marietla (ML) in a tax

in the combined company on a one-for~one


basis.OnMan:h16,1995,lhostockoflhis
new~ fooned entity began trading on the
NYSE undor Ille symbol "LMr'.
CAPITAlSTIWtTUREuof3l31m
TalalDebtS6808nil
Du.1n 5 Yn $1550 rrMl
LT OI:bt $6201 mil.
IT IrmIIftt $490 mill.
{lT irt8IBst earned: 3.9x; total inllll8Sl: CIMIl"8ge:
3.~
(52% ofCllp1)
Leases, UllQpltllll':ed A.nnualnmtal!l $222 milion
P.naion AsMb-121D2 $17.7 bil. ObBg. $21.9 bilL
PreferRd Slack None
Convnon Stock 450,098,028 shs.
Q of 4130103
IIARKETCAP: $22.3 billion (lirve Cap)
CURRENTPOSITION z001
2D02 3131103

Ca~~

Inventory (FIFO)

...JM2

Other
Cunnt Assets
Acds Payable
Debt Due
Othel
Current Uab.

2138
3655

2090
3798

2250

2067

1983 ~
10626
9894
1102
1086
1365
607
7354
7220
"""'9689"982i
8913
10n8
1419
89
8181

ANNUAL RATES Past

PAt

ohtqlU*'ItIJ

5YlL

Sales
''Cash F!ow"'

EanNrlgs
Divijetids

In,.,

Est'd'lO-'Q2

3.5%
.5%

-3.0,,"
-9.5%
-9.5%

-1.5"
5.0"

-10.5"
1.0%

Co.

.ndar
_
llI01
IDOZ

4747
5966
ZOO3 705!l

5608
6290

6221
6542

10.....
6.91
11.0"

19.5%
14.5%

7334
77BD

2399lI
2S578

7241 7408 7f01l ZiSOO


7$/10 77fIJ 7fOO 13" J1SOO
EARN1trIGSPERSIWlE
Fun

Calendaf

IU.31

.12

Y....

Ul
2.fIJ
Ful

r.31 Jun.30 Sep.31 Dec.31


.22
.22
.22
.22
.11
.11
.11
.11
.11
.11
.11
.11
.11
.11
.11
.11

Yur
.88
.44
.44
.44

ZOO3
ZOO3
_
tal-

ZOO3

.12

.29

Dec.31

.38
.28
.35
.55
.50
.58
.66
.60
.55
.52
.51
.IS
.55
.51
.IS
.72
QUARTERL1'DN'I)EJI)5PADc

z001

.ltIb.r
1M
_
z001
ZOOZ

Jun.3Q S.p.30

.2B
.2

1.07
1.60
234

.12

A/ Data ~
to 1995 _ shoWn pro fmna.
B Diuted egs. EJr;c1. nDmlalf. gains (mses):
($2.58); "1M, 15;; '95, (984); '98, 32; '98,

'92.

mo.o

2508.0 28SS.0 1236.0

916.0

4026.0

3594.0

10528 8957.0

3010.0

10188

344.0 1884.0 10".0


11427 906S.0

7511W"'"'iClp'IIotUII

7422.0

6217.0

5750

$000 lDngTWII0Ibl(WI

,lnoIIi

29IJt
30"
m
60%
BUSINESS: Lockheed .. .tin Capornon pnMdes a broad
of prudLCts and services m the wertI's gawwnments end conJ'I'Il!I"-

142'

cial cuslcmas. Areal t:I mnc:ennti:Jn indlloe space .nd rnissllII


I~
eIel2Dnics, IMlI'Onauti::s, 8IId i'rfClln1tion sysBns. ProgIiVI'I blse indudel
F18, F-22, F3S aiuafl Tment baDiliti: nissEslyRamll, C-130 miliCMy AlllporI, and lbn laundl vehidB..

stlarehokSers. Oft. & di". control abolll. .9% tl ctIIl1. slJl.; l!!ITIpbyeB
plans, 18.2"'; FMR, 112". (3103 Pmxyl. Cham.n and CEO:
V.nc:e D. Coftm8n. President Rob.t J. St8'wem.. Inc.: MllyBnd.
Addn!ss: 6801 RockIBdge DI7ta, BaIhfIIda, M5Yllnd 20817. T..
phone: (301) 897-6000. lm.net. www.~.com.

Lockheed
Martins bottom-line
progres5. even though we look for strong gains
for sales in both 2003 and 2004" In fact,
the company has estimated that a GAAP
credit of $]60 million in 2002 is lIkely to
swing to a $490 million expense lJ1is year.
That means that a pickUp in profits from
operations will be offset in 2003. (Lockheed has yet to put a fum penslon-accoWll
estimate on the table for 2004.)
Operating margins should get a nUip
from the C-I3OJ program In 2005. Fol
lowing severe start-up problems, Lockheed
dedded. to book the program at break.even
until 120 of 'the new-type cargo planes had
been dellvered. In Manit, the Pentagon
gave the company a five-year order for 60
aircraft for the USAF and the USMC. As a
rSult, at the end of AprU. there were 179
Js on order or deltvered. The ] 20 point is
scheduled. to be reached In late 2004, after
which we look for profits to be booked on
the C-] 3OJ" In addition. we think global
interest 15 likely to rise, now that the
United States has given its "seal of ap~
proval" to the plane.
The company
bought back 6.3 mUllan

mJllion. This repurchase was opportunistic


and may not recur. We won"t include any
further stock retirements until LMT announces that it has done so or plans to
make such an investment.
Lockheed's F/A-ZZ fighter continues to
register
cost overruns.
In addition,
some software problems have not yet been
solved. Some in Congress are seeking to
further trlm or even eliminate the program as a result. Nonetheless, the 22 has
its defenders since It Is designed to rule
the skies, replacing the F-15. which Is
heading for the end of its 30-year run. In
any case. if the, program is trimmed, the
winner would probably be Lockheed Martin"s F-35. which is now in development.
This company bad a record backlog of
$74.6 billion at March 315t. lhat enhances our conftdence in the growth we
project for Lockheed Martin. But the untimely stock. although down over 30%
from the mid-2002 high, is seUing at about
t..hree times the early 2000 low. Accordingly, we think. the current price largely dis
counts the Rains we project by 20062008.
Mol1on L. Siegel
June 27, 2003

12...,),

'99, (42); '00, (S2..36); '01, ($4.02); 1J2. June, September, O~.
~
$123~ Nul egs. rpl due Iale July.
(D) Ind. mang.ln 2002: $8.2 bI.., $18.01/sII.
(C) Di'tilends hilbically paid iIllni Mild!,
(E) In mlions, adjus111db sk.di: spit.

c. ZCOl,
I..iIr Pu!II5hilg. n:. ,. riqtb~.
fdlll
.....
is CIIQinI!d IIVIIII 'llIKe5 t*IItd 10 be f'!fIIItIIe MI
1liE PU8USHEA IS NJl Il.ESPQNSIIU: loll. NI'f ERRORS OR OIoISSIOflISlifAU
.. lhispllbliellal" sh:Iy b
1If ..
rep;clla& reaf." CII ......
i1-.y ..... ltQoni: C111ft1 blL C111n1111 ill ~

..,-1tIri

.-

11"

~omP.""

Fklandll Slrwngtb
StDct's Pnc. S1abllly
Price GnnIIII wa-rmt.ncR

Eamlnp PNdlctablitJ

vaue

19/5

,,3D "": ......


ims
5.3"
7.4"
10.9'
10.5%
11.01 RnamonToI.IICIp'I
1tOl
6.11% 10.8% 18.0% It",
15.5" Rdim III $hr. Eau"1ty It""
3.5%
7.8% 14.6%' 110% 11", Rdlined IIIConI Eq
15.0"
4~
28%
19%
M AI Dlv'dl1DN.l Prof
2ft
range '02 depreciatDn ra1e: 6.7%. Has abolll. 125,000 1!IrTIployees; 45,425

13.3%
17.4%
14.8%
28%

4.9"1.
9.0%
3.6%

..

""

10.4'
15.9%
13.5%
31%

10.3"
19.3%
142%
26%

Prall."

805.0

6433.0 6856.0 6'7BO 6137.0 6361.0 7160.0 6443.0 586"-0


9.Q14 10.6'
11.6% 25.1%
14.4% 18.3%

1.4"

1089.0

5201.0 ~6.0
11.3,
15.7%
13.4"4

An.,

f--::-='-="-'''--''c:'-'---'-'''O'''''=='':'-'''7:'-=''--o-=-:----=':'''==-;-::-;-~=;;:'_''=''''---'-'=======_1
The pension
line is bolding
back
shares in the first quarter, paying $279

1a~
Ql/ARlBlLlSA1fSlloa)
F.II
r.31 Jun.30 Sap.30 Dec.31 Yur
5562 6212 5Il6O 7595 25329

Book v-.

912
4049
3140

ReceIVables

=~

e. JnII'ided

_scritW, -.~

....r.g.,.....,.

CII

'IIbIoIIl WIlIWIIIn " MY tnd.

*toni:

n"'lIIe.fiil01*I
5eI'Ii:e CII

pldJd.

I ".

II:

B++
80
3S

55
II

3.4%

LONGS DRUG NYSELDG


,',
I,
I...

_ ......

"

Institutional DKlaions
WIll

.. '"

88

GtI2
88

'

--- ,.,-- -

.,'"

"-_00

.... -

-.

~.
1Q1_J

Pen;8nt

11

stIIIl'eS

:'::'1 204~ 21': 2252":traded


1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
60.63
43.14 48.15 ~Z.42 51.as SUfl
1.55
1.80
1.97
2.01
1.92
1.99
1.17
1.38
1.51
1.41
1.36
119
.55
.40
.43
A7
.51
.54
11.22
7.30
7.73
8.34
9..40
10.35
41.09 39.99 40.26 40.34 40.88
13.1
14.3
12.8 13.5 13.0 14.4
J3
.96
1.06
1.02
il7
.92
2...."
2."~
2J1i
2.1'ti 3.1~

2.3"

CAPrrAl.
STRUCTURE
asof 5/1103
TalaIDebt$216.8ml.
DR 1115YIS. $165.7 mil.
LTDRbI$2.11.e mi.'
LTInDrea $12.6mll.
(LT nth$! earned: 3.&)

No Def'Wled Bend

Pen.illn PI'n

PId Stock None

~:=~~
CommQlll SlocIl37,359,1Z5
uol_

shs.

IlARKETCAP: SB2Smillion (Small Cap)

CURRENTpOSrrlON

( FO)
U

CurT1!ntAsse15
Aa:ts Pay;lbleDebt
Ottler Due
Currvnl
Usb.

2001

2002

511103

60.50
2.01
1.21
.56
12.09
41.3
1. 0
.83
3.3%
2(99.2
26.8%
(.6~
274
49.8
39.5\
2.~
144.0
13.8
499.6
9.7%
10.0~

62.21 56.72
2.10
2.40
1.18 1.36
.56
.56
12.75 13.19
41.12 39.63
14.4
13.9
.94
.93
3.3'
3.0"
25583 26(....
27.5% 27.9%
(.8~
5.0~
214
328
-48.7
54.6
39.7\ 39.9'
1.9% 2,'"
168.8 159.1
111
8.3
524.1 "522:8
9.'% 10.3%
9.3~ 1O.(~

72..58
2.63
1.49
.56
14.21
38.91
15.D
.94
2.5"
2828.3
28.2%
5.0~
337
58.6
39.9%
2,'"
164.9
5.2
553.6
10.5%
10.6%

76.44
2.67
1.49
.56
15.12
38.63
11.8
1.03
2.1"
2952.9
281\
... ~
349
51.7
39.3'

43.88
2.94
1.~
.56
16.40
38.95
20J
1.06
1.~
3266il
28.rI.
U~
381
63.4
38.5"
2.mi
1.9%
168.5 153.5
16.0
14.3
584.1 638.8
9.6"
9.8%
9.9% 9il~

9:1.2f 10T.n 113.35 "4.97


3.18
3.38
3.34
3.01
1.76 1.52
1.29
1.00
.56
.56
.56
.56
17.84 18.3D 19.00 18.61
39.39 37.37 37.98 38.50
17.6
13.1
19.4
24.9
1.00
.89
.99
1.36
2.7"
221
2.3"
3672., 4027.1 431>1.7 "26.3
28."
27.6'
21.5% 26,2%
... ~
(.5~
3.9~
3.3~
416
430
436
455
69.0 57.2
048.5 38.3
39.4" 39.6% 372%
31.5
U\
1.1% .9%
230.3 159.4 236.6 242.6
181.2 198.1 19B.e 181.4
7ffl..7
683.8 121.6 116.5
8.'%
1.3"
6.'%
5.0"'
9.8\
M~
6.7~
5.3~

1.8"

1.9,

5.4%04.9"

6.'%

6.6%

6.'"

6.5%

6.7%

45\

42%

38\

38"

34%

32%

.a"

5J1,

3.8%

37%

44\

4~;

1~:~
1~:1BUSINESS: Longs Drug Stns, Inc. 5 one of the rwti:Jrr':I largest
-4
428.9 drug chains. OPll'ates 459 large drug sltns in sill wesWn slates
~~:s 40.0 (sm~ rmst m IlDIthllnlC.Womia. 0!hBr IiIDtI .. Colorado,

684.4
270.5

662.7

6Sif..8

242.4

.zs.U

2.6
174.7
""44f]

2.3
175.4
~

Flow......

141.1D
(15
US
.51
1t.Jj

31.20
110
...
15
""

2IJ'%
.. "

.se
~O
J1.",

1.'"
215
ftO
71D
U%
7.0lI
(5"

run 15,000 b 25,000 sq. It Awg.annual saBs per stcn,bout 19.6


mil. Hes about 22,200 wnpbyees, 19,000 slld*h. 01. & di'. awn
5.1% of 5h!L;ArilII CapitalMaI\i9Ml'nt. Inc., 11.9%(4103PnDy).

CImIn.: Robert M. Long. PM.. & CEO: WIfTeft BryiInl Inc.: MD.
AddnIs5: 141 NoIth Civic Drive, P.O. Ba:-.5222, W.DJl: Creek, CA
W
.:.5t.:.""'=--=IM5!I6=,, . .;.T"":;;:.,,,<9=25,,,),,93::',::-'='=70,,.
.;:
:"'9.:..""':;:::=:
c:-cc:;:;--,,--J

WashlJgton, On!gon, ~e,


III1dHnai
PhIm1.CY ebout 46.6%
of sales (3nI ~.
about 91% of Rx): Front..... , 52.8%. stanis

==:=.::....=.:"'"."'"'="":;,:.:..=...:.""==.....=:=,,',.,...=..:..=""":::::'

5.0 I'-;',.....
142.7
~
Longs

i ;:'=-:=:::....

"",,,,,...:..

DnJg Stores continues


to face a
tough market.
Ftscal ftrst-quarter sales
(ended May 1. 2003) ad\!anred only 1%
year over year. Same-store sales declined
around 2% ln May, and with management
reducing
guidance,
bodes U1 fOr secondperiod
comparisons. As SUch.
we have
trtmmed
our July-quarter
and full-year
share-earntngs
estlmates
to $0.20 and
$0_85, respectively.
The company indicates that a tough
economy
and consumer-pricing
pressure continue
to hinder
results.
AIthough these are factors, we believe Longs
may also be JosJr18 market share. A study
in Drug Store News' June 9th issue shows

multiple, vs. most of its competitors. which


llkely correlates
directly to the goss1p~
However. Longs states Jt has no interest in
being acquired, and will attempt to right
its own ship. Too. it is not llk.ely an attrar:::tJve target since most of its stores operate
in strips.
many of whJch contain other
phannades.
Only Z% of Long. stores are
free-standing. a more profitable
fonnat.
Stabilizing
and expanding contracting margins is on the agenda.
A 12-step
program is undenNay to improve. among
other costs, supply-chain and operational
processes. Longs wUl also monitor 25 undelperfonning
stores,
which may be
closed. Too. it is ridding Itself or two lnem-

~;i:n~k:~e~::~~
llII2
.29
.29
.06
.34
1.00 tion, declined 0_7% thls past year, reach2OD3 .24 ,20 .1D .31
.'S ing 5.3%. AIthoulVl Longs is focused more
2004 .25 .25 .11 .n
.15 on northern
CaIt.rornla.
we foresee InCaI- QUARTERLYONI)ENDSPAlDc
Full creased
competition, especially from Walend.r lIad' Jun.5;31 DK.31 r.. r green. llk~ eroding its position in that re-

get despite lighter sales, but we look for


more evidence of their contributions before
factoring them lnto our projections.
These untime:r
shares wiD likely lag

ANNUAL
RATESPat
ddwlte<p-ml IIY,.,

P.. I Est'd~'Q2
51,., .....

Sales

6.5%

9.5%

5.,",

~.=s

5.0'"

5.0%

.1~

.2.5'"

...'"'
2.~

5.5"

2.,",

''CashAaw"
BcD: Villus

6.0%

~
IIlIAR7ERLYSAllSlllllil.)A
~
B:" iADr.Per JulPer Od.P.r Jan.P-r y_
lIOO 956 991 97( 1106 ;
2001 D32 1042 1017 1214
2002 090 1102 1064 1170
26
2OD3103 1100 1070 1177 4450
2004 110 111S 1010 11'5 4500
9=" ~PERSffAREAIi
~

= :~:~

l:Ita

Apr.Per JuIP... Oct.P'r Jan."-r ~

:m :~

t~ ~s

t1~~~ ~~.~~
t:n~=f~~:~
~eseeamJngs
res~~a:e:
Ilkely helped
to achieve
tar-

:: :~::~::~::~::~r~~:s~:(~--;

11U~ 1UJO U.'peI'1II A


115
J.31l"Cash
.U
.15 Eaminppwlh
.51
.51 Dlv'dl DId'd pili' sh c
tUS
'US 8ooUWupII"'"
3UO
Jl50 Caramon Shs OutrI'; U
Baldlig _ _
Avg Ann' PIE ROo
':: ::
R_
PIERdo
AW;AnnUMi' twd
_
_
SIIos(loiII) A
Zl.1"
ZIZ% GrauIW;1n
1211 3.511 llponing M"lI~
115
495 NunIbIr gI S1ar.
32.0
!5.0 Nfl.PnlIt~)
31.5% 37.5% Incan Tu RdI
.7%
-'" N'IProIlI ill
24D
ZOOWGIIdIlllClp'(h1l)
210
155 LonIlT.,IIIWJ'l{W)
700
710 $hr.
...,,,
(5% RIU'nOhlatalCap'1
4.511 ~0lI R.... '" 5h'. E..;n.
2.3%
1.5"
2.01 Rft*lICi*, COI'IEq
56\
.. "
51% ADDiY'ds to NI!Prof

2G01

.14
.14
.14
.14
.2002
.14
.14
.14
.'4
2DD3 .14
.14
(A) FI!CaI r-' ends an the mI: 1lM.ndIy 11
Jan. d the fobl' caL ~..
(8) B.-l
an ilYQ. IhInls hough '96; dilulBd
tmn .
EJd. I'I1II nomCll'. g .... (btSeI):
CI ZOll], VIlJe lft PLMsMIa. IIlC. N rWU 1Ii5IIInd.

t;~C;:~n~
long.56 Rumors
of a takeover
spurred
a run.56 up in share prices. Despite recent woes,
the stock trades at a premium earnings

It

Its

:~:a~rb~
~

=~e:~e:ers~=flatlng the Issues, subside. Too, they offer


Uttle appreciation appeal out to 2006-2008.
James M. Herth
July 4,2003

'93, B: '95, (21,); '00, (33;:); '01, (4j); '02, (0) In mil, .djusiKI for sIoc:k spM.
Carnpany'. FkJanclill lSinllgl!l
(83); '03, (4j). Next egs. due tale Aug.
S-ct's Price Stability
(C) Dioti:iends himric:ally pai:I II Januay, Apri,
Price GrowtII hrUltata
July,IncI October.
Elml.
P~blily
rllllUll IIIIIeriaI is III:iI.IiIel ha1I DIIt:e5 .....
to be niItM .-.:I is poNed wl/DlI nnanIies rI .., UId. _
THEPU8IJSIIl: IS In RE$PONSIll.f.lORNf'! ERRO.RSOR (USSlOJIS HEREW.This~i5
'IRIy lIIr~s_,
=ciII. inIBM1I1_.
pili

'.
: II:
IIlIl.J lie 1~!I'5llIIl.
-.ed II ~
II Ill)' 1IMd.-.-11
.......
lllIseII b
IIIIIItIItIg Ill)' pr*d III ~1IlIi:
~
~
Ill' pDdIl;L

gftlef"

_c_ ..

'*'

8+t'
70

SO
SO
II'

MARCUS CORP. NYSEYcs


3_=
Low:

3 N!'Il/Z1!lO
3 ""'11M3

SAFElY
TECHNiCAl

Ann'RllUmTotal

Gain

PriCl
3D
19

=-:l~r

13.1
10.7

18.3
11.4

pm

Sb"frigll

,.

18.8
13.9

RATXl 199(trOiBI19!)
I
ll.edlill. 17..
20 .
13.5

1Ei.3
10.5

19.1
12.4

B2

'.""

... 1

, 'I

.'

"

45

JO

.""'...

31
18972

28.3

17.1
22.4
31.1
70.6

"""Due

0tItet-

Current Uab.

d...... U-~1

""""' ....

.'

'.'

Y.,

E_

2001

2IOZ
ZlI03

......

CA~

1!l!l1

2001

zogz
ZOO3

17.2
24.3
31.8

'3.3

Past

3.0%
9.0%

12
lD

.... ......

Pel
11. 6
77.4
77.4
86.7
10&.
86.9
87.1
96.3
116.1
84.0
88.1 101.6
92.0 1 ..,
88.'
"'.6
UII
IU
liG 11.
EWMGS PER SKAREugPlr NO.PII' F.b,Per 1Iq- Pel
.42
.17
.02
.1.
.38
.13
d.1I5
d.01
.50
.07
.05
.14
.42
.09
.06
.13
.43
.7
.1.
.1'

QUARTERLY
ONilENOSPAIl"
IIlr.31

.1155
.1155
.1155
.055
1155

73.'

7.'"

Feb.Per II"

Jln.30 Sea.30 Dec.31

.1155
.055
.1155
.1155
.055

.1155
.1155
.1155
.1155

1,.4"

F.,
'_1
Va,

352.1
379.1

389.'

4/15

m
F.I
FloaI

Y
.71
.45
.76

.7D
.75
Full

.1155
.055
.1155
.1155

r""

.22
.22
.22
.22

.11.0

.". '"
-131

"

....

03 2004 ~ VALUEUNEPIlI. ~C.


2001
fWsh A
12.96
12.50
117'
f~" R......
lU'
110
1.94
2.16
14' "CaIt A'" 1* lit
.7
.45
.76
.75 Earnilpplrlh"
UD
.n
.22
.22
.1J DlY'ds DId'd pII' idII e3.31
U,
1.57
1.70 tip' Sponditg 1* lit
12.10
11.56
11.35
1135 BoaIl.VllulpIl"lh
1U5
21.50
.20 31.19
0IIlrIl0a Shs Ou
g
29.6
18.9
Ayg AnIl'I PIERdo
'lO
1.63
R.u.. PIERdo
1.00
1.10
1.5%
AVI AIIn' DiY'd Y'1IId
1.6"
319.1
fD5
389.6
420 RIMllIIeI ($nIJI) A
505
_il .....
22.6% 23.7%
43.3
44.9
45..
50.1 Oopndl1laot (loal)
''-0
22.,
13.3
3aG
lO.'
D.' N"""IIW
4OJ% 33.0%
kIcorI. Tu ItrIt
5.8%
7.7'4
3"
042.3
d35.9
0411.
dJD.. W_, Cop' (loal)
d7~0
310.2
299.B
longT .......
(~
115
337.7 354.1
375
315 ....-...... '...-1
50'
4.1%
~0lI R"onTDlIIICIp'
3.7"
'-'"
Rnn onSIr. ED~
3.9%
6.3%
7.'"
2.1%
RIIIIned
to
C_
Eq
4.6%
lOll
'-'"
4/%
3211
ADDiv'dl
to
NIt.
Prof
28%
31"
'Ill
savens il 47 kx:8Iions il WI, OH, IL, and UN. Sold 30 I<FC hn
chise units 5101; 18 Apple.'s una &95. Has abou1 a.oOO8f11)Is..
OIfsJdn.. corrWolaboul: 77% 01 VDtiIg PD'"' and awn 32% of .1
shares (!Il2 Proxy). Chrrm., Pre. & CEO: S.phen H. MIII:tIS..
Ine.: WI. Addr.: 100 East Wisaxlsi1 AYe., SIIie 1900, MilwJ:ukee,
WI 53202. Tel: 414-905-1000. Intllmlrt:WWW.l'Mt2J![Xlfp.com.

u.

."

I."

.. ~,.." """

....,.:

:;:

...~I"
'" ...'" .........
~'"
"" ""

1.1"

27.""

"'-,,,

~""
~'" ~'"
~""

such as SARS, may pressw-e occupancy


rates in the coming months. Also. the
weak economy continues to hurt. corporate
travel, which bodes ill for these divisions
given their dependence on business custamers. We are somewhat mmforted,
sales) bnproved
a healthy
7%. Also, the
tl1~h,
by the 8% RevPAR (revenues per
a
able room) increase in Marcus'
lodging and the holels and resorts
unlts
posted another decent period..
Baymant unit, thanks mostly to marketThe theater division should be able to share gains.
drive revenues
going fol'Ward.. AI- Fiscal ZOO3eanUngs may fall below
though it will face tough comparisons due last year's taIl~ due to economic weakto blockbuster hits released last year, like ness. Fortunate y, Marcus, unlike pure-Spiderman and Star J.iar:s: Ep1sode
we
play lodging /inns, benellts from Its more
are confident that it can post good results. economically Insulated. theater group.
X-Men 2 and The Matrix Reloaded should Marcus stock is of little near-term inattract moviegoers and help drive mar- terest. given its only Average TImeliness
gins. Also, the sequel to The Terminator rank.. Too, we don't antidpate any major
and Hollywood's decision to follow the events In the months ahead that may lead
comJc book wave with The Hulk should
to a sizable increase In the oottom line.
further support. this division. Movie at- But. the shares have about average 3ten dance may have fallen during the be- to 5-year appreciation potential. Howginning of the Iraq war, but probably has ever. the company is highly dependent on
Hollywood producing blockbusters. Therestarted to l:ntrove .
We are a
it concerned. about the fore, investors should be cautious given
lodging and the hotels and resorts
this uncertainty. A:s such. we would stay
segments. A1thau~ they seemed to be on the sidellnes for oow .
picking up steam ately. travel concerns.
David Nakashian
May 23, 2003
cal third quarter (year ends In May). Total sales and operating income Increased
year over year by 4% and 20%. respective~. O~ting
inmme in its theaters group
the
est unit with about 40% of total

n.

t_ .....

ORIr[RRORSOROIlIIS$lCIHSHEREW.l::r:-:::i5~"'~S_.1'oIlI1

ma..,lir~IISllld.""'.~i1l1lJ'fI'i*I!."".'*"

-11.11

Marcus COllJOration had a decent fis-

IA) ""- ". """ ..... ".""'''


'99, ./
W.""
_.
....
Aug., NCIV., Feb. PlJ'., 12 weeks; Mar per., 18 nlrgairn(Ioss}: '94, 11j; '98, 50; '98, {8j}; '01,
weeks. 13-week penoda thenlafll!!r.
(2j). Nll.xt egs. rpl dIM late June. (e) N8xI:
dti'd rnlg. IDl Jun. Next IiIll dala BtII Jul Div'd
Cl ZIDJ, YMIe Iile ~
~
meMII. fM!llll nIIIBi. i5 otbined Inn .-"n b*WId ID be
THPU81..15KRISNJIR(

4
3

"" ..,
,,,
' ".
~.,
,.,
.

12.5"
2~"
6.0%
7.""
.~" "'"

QUAR7ERLT RVENUES (loaJ

20

""'.

.n

Est'd _'02

2.5%
7.(1%

"16
B
B

.......

I
1997 1998 1999 2000
10.26 11.1D
12.13
11.94
2.02
2.05
2.11
2.09
1.01
1.03
.n
.71
.20
.22
.22
.22
3.63
3.83
3.74
3.31
9.30 10.00
10.048 11.03
29.48
1>6 30.
14.7
171
18.7
16.7
.85
.89
1.67
1.09
lJ%
11%
1.9%
1.5""
303.4 3J5.B
362.9
352.1
29.5% 28.1% 2U% 25.1%
28.1
38.3
32.9
40.5
30J
23.1
21.2
30.'
39.7'4 40.0%
40.5% 40.1"
101\
91%
6.4"
6.0"
d28.6 d31.6
d32.1
042.1
168.1
205.6 264.3
286.3
m.3 302.5 313.6 3251
5.4% 4.9%
B.'"
11.1\ 10.2%
1.4\
6.5%
9.1% 8.1%
5.4% 4.6%
16%
20%
27%
30%
BUSINESS: The MllI'ClIs Corpomon opemms Iiniled-servi:e
17.0 ~
132% 01 '02 bIaI salas), hotels & resorts (3D"'), and rmvie
.B.B theahs (38"). LDdgi'lg oper. Ilt1udIt abDUl 188 Baymont ms in
32.3 31 stms and 7 Woodtiekl' Slnvs illL.. WI, CO, OH, and lX; hotel
2O.B & resort Opel". contm 8 owned and 6 mlnllg8d properti&s n WI,
MN, MO, TX and CA.; and !heatfIr Opel". include roughly 490
20 .

>Tn.

5.0%

E_ A"I.PtrNoY.Ptr

AKAI

3Z

.._-- --- _ .

.'

3
45.1

.......
.~"
.~" ,.""

Put
"Tn.

''Cash Row"
Earnings
Dividends
Book ValUII

ZOIl3

-12.0

--

CurrentAs..ts
Aa:ts PlI)'8ble

ANNUAL RATES

'.B
19.8

18.9

(Avg Cst)

~ry

,..,

,.

Ca:'~
Receivables

200Z

Target Price Rane2006 2007 2008

1III'II11e

1.4"

2IlO1

15.3
12.8

'I. TOt RETtJRIiI 41113

-.
-.
P"""".
32
32 sho_

"

--

18.0
11.9

..

IOlO:

:::'1 181:

...-. ----

15
1,llhll" 1.1"1",,
I
'643B
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
8.14
7.00
637
U9
623
6.50
6.81
7.44
U6
5.84
](I
.76
~ .99 1.08 123 1.14 1.40 1.62 1.78
.52
.70
~
J9
.Jll
.45
.63
J2
.4'
.09
.10
.12
.15
23
.07
.07
.08
.09
.12
1.65
1.08
2.62
2.94
1.09
.91
.. 13
1.56
1.54
2.59
4.,
6.61
7.30
8.52
320
353
3.D3
4.16
.54
5.69
5.1
25
5.
5.7
6
.56
h.6
. 4
9.5
161
11.1
15.
11.6
13.1
".6
'2.3
.96
1.04
.96
.18
Jl
.60
.56
.n 1.06
1.07
1.6% 1.8%
1.3'
1.7" 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1' ..,%
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE of 2121103
245.6
278.0
21'-0
162.3
Total Debt $27Umil. Dill: ill 5 Yrs lO1.Smil
24..5% 24.9% 25.3% 29J%
LT DebC $254.4 mil.
LT Int.rnt S18.8 mil.
20.4
163
23.6
25.'
(T alai i'll8rest CDYlDge: 2.&)
16~
20.7
2-4.1
21.5
(43% of cap'~
leas .. , UncapttalDd Annual rentals; $2.9 miD..
39.'" 38.9% 40.0% 39.1"
Pen,lon lLIbility NOOB
7.7'4
8.4'1.
6.7'4 10.5"
PM stock None
113.8 d13.3
d30.7
d19.1
Cammon Stock 29,461,926 shs.
107.7
116A 127.1
79.0
Comrmn shs.: 19,956,741; Class B shs.:
11otO 193.9
214.5 251.3
9,505, 185lu of 411M3); HDkIers of B sh". Fe1.7%
B.O%
8.4%
8.1"
ceM! 10 vDlll5lsh.; holden of ammon f8C&ive one
vrAer/sh. and 110% Ii dividendspaid CIIIeach B sh.
9.5% 10.7% 11.3% IOJ%
IIARKT CAP: $4ZSmillion (smlll Cap)
7J%
9.3% 8.4%
CURRENT POSfTI)N
'lm103
17%
17'10
16%
23%
200'

F""

15.7
10.6

15.3

1.6%

1.19

22%

J J A ION
D J f 1'!!hlll"
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
,i;..
00110001'
',022000211
Instilutional Decisions

WJ%

,2

,"

iI:i:IiIP! fecrsYln

.-&

({r~l
..-..0"
,,,
1.;'
'"
Insider Decision.

......s...,
...,

B.B

~~=
n~
'='"
]:';':2

2Q06.01 PROJECTIONS
trllh
lAW

12.2

LEGENDS
_
7.1 r C,511 F~

0.00 ~

.Ill

BflJ,

. 1
4.B

High:

lWEutIESS

I~ECENT
14131f~
P~CE

b1L..

b~

pmt. ._,."""
... ,"" .. Fob"MAy. A:"
.1Id NCIV. 0...... prD kl '96 ntpreSenI avg.
CMs Band ronmon met div'd pa)'DUl.
DRIP pIIIn aval (D) In mi., adj. for sl*bQIIiIIIIe l1li

1I0i1ed ~

... 1IbIIiIg1llJ1IIi'*d."lIIIi:~

...,.."
III
~ua..

....

-.lL....part

IIIM:eDl

pDdlM:l

ea..P:'1.:
F... _'........
SlDct'II rIcIStabllltr

75
25
70

Prb

GrowtfI ~
Eunl..,. PrMietabilly

,',

:11:

II.,

OHIO CASUALTY NDQ.OCAS

Nil

--_ ...
.ii

Instttutional Declalons

1IQJ.'

.. ..,

81

lJ1II
79

lQJIU
85

snares

,:::'1 .1ait 426;:4~


19B7
15.35
1.97
d.-42
1.01
...2
6.fI1
88.,"
1"~
10.'

1988 19B9
'5.52 1625
2.22
2.58
d.16
d.44
1.45
1.19
...7
.52
8.33
9.23
.. .29 1lJ.93
10"
122%
6.0
9.'
.10
.50
.n
4.K
5.4"
4.6%

Percelll

traded

1990 1991
20,00 20.09
2.85 3.04
d1.00
d.50
1.10
1.51
.sa .62
9.10 10.19
7..,,, 71.7.
112~ 1(1;~
9.3
7.'
.69

21.09
3.01
d.82

19.14 18,04
3.04
2.97
d1.14
d.03
135
1:i1
127
El
.71
.73
11.47 11111 11.82
11.97 (LUli 11.99
1",~
135~ 129%
10.1
13.4 12.0
.Il!>
.79
.79
4.6% 4.4% 4.8"

.48

5.1\

5.5%

CAPrrAL STRUCTUREas of 3131103


Total Debt $198.2 mil.
LTDtblNone

Due In 5 Yrs, $198.2 mil.

(16% 01 Cap'O
Pusloll'
POl
.....

Aueb
_

121D2 S235 mill. 0Il1ig. 1271 mil

ComII'Ion Stock 60,845,818 shs.

862.3

FINANCIALPOSITION z001

11IIU-1

Bonds
Sleeks
PA!lmiums Due
0tIw
Total Assets
Res'ves,Prems
Policy ClaIms
Other

3139.8
312.5
324.7
1002.0

342.0

921.5
4524.6
4779.0
66t1.7 668.7
2150.7 2433.7
fl27.2
617.9
j4:4:i]
372D.3

TatBll.IiIbiities

ANNUAL RATES Pat


li~(Jw"~}
1nll.
Pntmilm Inc
2.0%
Invest Income
1.5%

Earnings
BookValue

3131R3
3216.0
27IJ.3
328.7
1013.0
4828.0
675.9
24n.5
611.4
3}59.j

Put

Est'd "00-'02
ID....
7.0%
2.0%
5.5%
3.0%

.uti.

--

DM::lends

C...

2002

2T12.1
489.0

NlIF

--

--

NAIF

5.5%

1.0%

5.""

lET PREIIIIIS EAIIIIBl{1oil


Foil
Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.!'
Y....
369.9 394.0 382.9 1534.0

endar Mar.)'
2BOD 351.2
2llIl 383.5
200Z 361.0
_
349.3
_
315

376.6
38U
350!
370

374.3
351.2
3lI1
3"

372.6
367.8
JIl7
38'

c.

EARHlJllGSPER9fMEMar,!' JudO SIID.3D Dec.3'


2DIO d1.25
'.14
'.13
'.lB
2101
. 07
.38
.73
1.14
200Z
.20
.11 .1.llB
.28
2103
.12
.11
.2B
.JI
_
.JO
.J3
.J5
.37

end.,

tal-

end.r

1959
2DIO
2101

QUARTERLYDNI>ENDSPAIl C
'''r.31 Jlln.30 Sep.30 DK.3,
.23
.23
.23
.23
.23
.12
.12
.12
-.---

2102

--

--

2103

--

--

--

1319.4
18.61
21.4%
-5.9'1.
9.S1
87.0
7.0%
3817

--

(AI Pnt-tu.. (8) Pri. egs. UnI'96, blsi:: ...


Ind. COIp.gains (Iosaes): '89, (37j); '110, (39);
111, 131; '92, 97j;"93, 73; '94, 4OrIl; '95, 11j;
118, 91j; '97, ~; "98, (3); 119, $1.71; "00,

1507.0
1450.7
1430
1500
Ful
y.. r

.1.70
2.18
'.'9
.85
U5
Full
Yew

.92
.59
--

-~

10.11
-42,
59'

1298.4
13.9%
26.3"
-2%
18.0"
91.1
7.1%
3139

17.54 17.14
2.66
2.61
:n d.50
1.34 1.38
.7&
.W
15.69 16.n
11J.1!1 IU.lll
1(1;% ,,,,%
f2.4
12.5
.OJ
.78
4.6% 4.6"

1248.5
12.3'
26.2%
1.5%
20.6'
95.4
6.1'
3980
850.8 1111.0
10.~
8.6%
".5% 3.n.
581
57%

17.98 20.29 25.85 25.54 25.07


2.64
2.70
3.01
3.41
3.S3
.61
.51 d3.10 d5.05 d3.26
1.91
1.38
1.13 .1.70
2.1!
.84
.88
.92
.59
..
19.55 21.'2
19.16 18.59 11.97
67.24 62.54 tlU.08 tJU.u1 00.11
110~ 104% 95% '"
.. %
f1.3
15.9
tfJ.5

5.3
.85
.OJ
.60
-.27
3.9% 4.0"
5.1"
5.5"
5.5"

1204.3
11.3'
25.6"
.2.9%
15.S'
.72
6.0'4
3890
1115.1
8.3%

1209.0
11.5,.
25.1\
3.<%
24.8"
130.'
5.8%
3119
1314.8
9.9'4
3.5'4
5.5%
58'
44%

1268.8
12.5"
24.9%
2.5%
9.7"
93.0
5.11
4802

1555.0
15.6"
36.4%
12.0%
22.6'
105.9
6.0"
4416
1321.0 1151.0
1.0% 92%
2.7'1. 4.3%
62'
53'4

23.89 1.145 14.JD P~PlwlEam"plh


3.41
JoJ'
150 IrlYlStMlrllllcpsh A
d4.02 d2.fO dUO UrIdIrwritn"lncplh A
. 9
.IS
1.3> .......
""...
.N'
N' Dlv'd.ilId'd,..1II C
17.43 11.15 20.50 BookYllul,...
bU.13
I ,
CQlllnIOft h'
a
99'4
"'"
-- 8::Itd"il ~_
A"AnIl'tPlERdo
.:: ...
R_
PII,Ad.
...
AwgAnn' Div'dVI,hl

""'1""""'''_

NMF

100
15l1a PICPrInIiurI. &mid
l,f.OI 710% loA IIIPIWIIE.wMd
X",
110% Eq.!lItDPrnWrlt
dI.SlI "'0%
,J1OX un Inclne Tu RaIl
5to
.... IIttProlli$nll/1
lQ% !n,nct1'otaIt!tY
-4n9
5050
5250 Totil All'" (WI
1080.0 1058.7
"DO
1250 &hr. EqWtyl$nil)'
12.2"
NMF
4.",
1.0% Rnm on stv. EQUity

NMF

12.2%

1534.0
8404'
35.4%
-19.8%

'100.2
6.3%
4489
1116.6

NMF

1506.1
19.9%
33.1\
13.0%
28.41
131.7
6.5%
4525

1450.5
n.9%
38.9"
-16.8%
NMF
d3~1
6.0%

NMF

_a_"'"

5.'"
4.",

HI

7.01 RelainMltDConEq
Nil AllDlY'd,1DN.t PraI

11.15

{,o

d1.25
U.

NR
2UG
11.00

''''''
tt.8
...

f.""
1100
7101
,)1.0"
"'0%
31""
lt5

1.01
IOOQ

1415

1.5%
1..5J,
Nil

IIU$lNfSS: Ohio Casuary Corp. is hobiIg ampany. Owns the


Ohio Casually lnSl.nnce Co., whICh owns W851 ArnerEan Insur8nca Co., Chi:! lie lnsuranr:e Co., Ohb Sectriy lnstnAC8 Co.,
Ocasco Budget (prariwrt fin.nl2lg) & AmlD:an Fire and Casully.
Ma 01 propI!lI1yltalUillly net prw!1iwns writen ... 2002: personal
.ulormbill,
30"; hQl1llKJWIMn nuIti-pId, 11"; WCIIten' com-

pensation, 10"; corntr&l:iIl mull-pI'ri, 19%; altier, 30%. Hils


lilbout 2,800 .-nployees. orran
& dActDrs OWI\ 7.9% 01 CXI1IfIIOn
sIDer, T. Rowe Price Assc., 8.8"'; Dirrensional Fund AdvISDn,
6.6% (3103 Prmyj. Charman: Stanley N. Pontils. Pnlsident &
CEO: Din R Csmi::hatL Inc: OH. AdIhss: 136 N. Thill St,
HamIon, OH 45025. Tel: 513-867-3000. Internet: WWW.ocas.tom

Ohio Casualty reported disappointing


first-quarter
results. as its operating income was 54% below our SO.26-a-share estlmate. The earnings shortiall was due to
a 300-basis-point rise in the company's
GAAP combined ratio to 111.4%, from the
year-ago period. 1be increase was a result
of weak premium volume, combined with
higher reported losses and the New Jersey
run-off business. Moreover, the company
has started to e.'"q)eIience intense compeUtlve pressures in tts small tD mid-sized
book of business, which is likely to keep
pressure on future earnings.
We have lowered our 2003 top- and
bottom-line
prqjections.
Due to the
we.aker-than-expected
first-quarter
resuits, we have reduced our share-net estlmate by 29% to $0.85. Furthennore. we
have dropped. our net premJwns earned by
$20 million. to 51.43 bUllan. Meanwhile,
we have trimmed our 3- to 5-year price
pf1!Jectlonby 15%, as we estimate less under:writing income, while raising our target for the combined ratio.
Investment income remains challenging. as interest rates are at multidecade
laws.
Nonetheless,
durtng
the
first

quarter, Ohio produced. a 1.5% rise in investment income over the previous year"s
period. The gain was fueled by a $ 1.25 million settlement for the termination of an
investment agreement. Going forward, we
belleve advances in investment income are
llke]y to become more challenging, With
considerable reinvestment risk.
Untimely Ohio Casualty shares lack
appeal. Despite the strong industry fundamentals.. the company has been unable
to achieve an underwrttlng profit, as weak
premium volume has boosted Its combined
ratio. We are cautious on Ohio's outlook.
as the potential for future reserve funding
and the elevated expenses associated with
its New Jersey nm-off business are likely
to keep pressure on these shares. 1bis
stock is likely to remain at a discount to
its tangible book value over the next 24
months. Furthermore, -we do not beUeve
the Insurer will reinstate its dividend over
the next 3 to 5-year period.. We advise
conservative
investors to avoid these
shares. However, this issue offers risktolerant investors moderate appreciatlon
potential for the pull to 2006-2008.
Anthony P Pandolfi.
June 27. 2003

'01 $2.25. Em. cap. gain: '02 .29. Excl


h starr: "88, 21t!; "89, 10; W, 10; '91,
12;. Eu;l nIr gailsJ{bases): '88, 16; '92, 4;
'93, {3Ok "94, 16;'98, (23k '99, 14;: '00,

37,; 'til, (551;). Nut .. mings reput 1ft JIlIy'lcmnpany's

~cDivilend

suspended Feb. 811, 2001.


D In mi., adj. ftl'spkts.
88b9 poIicytJC*B dlV'ds..

Flnlilldlll st,.ngUI
S1Dck's PriCli StI;b1ity'
PIb Grawttl ,.,.tldnCII
Eaml"" Pndctl.WIty

B+
7D
10
5

To subscribe call '-800-833-0046

OXFORD INDS. NYSE-OXM


TIOEIJII[5S

SAfElY
TECHNICAl.

3 lDIaed 1l1l&Dl
3 ...,m..
3_~",...

Hi"h:/
Low:

27.'
14.4

25 ..11
15.0

Rnml

GIin

.....s.
,
....
.....
,. ......
....~.=.,
44,. """...

II .JNntt1lI,I'

",'

,
~"'II

~;'Y

>

,,-,

102
50.7

Debt

Due

9.
215.1

.3

.3,3
.3

89.

ANNUAL RATES
lIfdlllgll(pll"~1
"Cash FIow"
Ellmi'lgs
Dividlll1ds
Book Value

... s

2648

---.2U ~

Othor
Cummt Liab.

s....

B.5
149.9
9B.9
9.'

17.6
103.2

147.4
11.4
219.7

....

Cumlnt Assets
1Ia1:J PsyBble

>n8IO>

2002

2IOl

(UFO)

Pat

..""

IlTn.

7.5"
.5"

5.0,"
7.0"'-

70.2

,....
Pat

58.7
10.1

107.3

.......

Esfd '01-'12

6.0"'-

8.0"'10.0"'1.5"'B.""

. G1l
a5l1
10.~

..

7.'"
F,.
FIocaI
llUIRTEIlI.YSALES~IIlll.l
Yu,
AlIII.PlrNDV.Plr Fib. er lily Per F""'"
E...
Yu'
20lIO
185.7 21B.9 187.8 2<8.4 839.5
201.4 194. 197.'
215.9
812.5
2D02 179.8 156.8 1<9.8 191.7 6T7.3
17~1 185.'
209.0 llU
715
110
f.5
115
UIl
20D
Fb<aI
EARtclNGS PER SHARE ....
Aug.P,rMovP,r Flb.Per May PI Yu,
200CI
.60
.ss .60 .94 3.02
.<5
.70
.37
2.05
.53
2002
.2
Ull
.06
.1.
.7'
.60
.56
.92
.72
UD
.54
.9
.N
.71 US

--.--

."

F'u::rI'

l:

ea.

--

IlUIRmlLT ONllENOS PAIl"


lIar.!1

1991
200CI

-21
21
-21
2OG2
-21
.21
(A) Focal _

Full

Sep.30 Dee.3t
21
-21
.21
-21
21
.21
-21
-21
.21
21
21
.21

Jun.30

.od. '"' ... Frid., _

Y.94
.94
.94
.94

Mlly 31. (BI Prinwy 82IIl1ilg. IIwough 1991,


dilulBdtfB8Ihr.
Excl nomtal'1Tlg bss: '96, 31. Nul ...... '"

v..e

15.3

37.3

raru-t Price Range


2006 2007 2008

22.0

CI 2m
I..iIe ~
AI ~~.
THE PUllUSlR IS IIJTR
SIIlE aRMY
fl .., tit ~
IaIti 1IInlI1I ~i111lJ

I'll

..

h.

I II

."

..'

50
40

,..

30
25
20
15

'1'.

> 1'.

7.5

-1S.D

2O.B
1211.0
16.0

-0.1
T.7

,
'1'.
I 1111
2003
2004
YALlJEUtEP118
~c. 8-48
2001 2002
90,12 100 .
105.30 W.. fill' Ih A
87.78 108.73 109.13 109.71
121.15
(J5
2.59
1111
U. -Cab Row" ,..Ib
3.7l
4.15
332
'.29
2.75
3.02
2.05
1.~
1111
3.11
105 Urr*lgl per sh
115
,N DWdl Dtd'd fill' WI c
.84
.84
.N
,N
.80
.82
J4
1.00
.89
.T7
.59
.1> Cop'l .........
.10
-'"
'"
16.12
21.48
5(411
18.11 19.46
22.81 23.31 Z5,f5
V.IS B... YaIuo .....
8.
7.
7.52
7.55
1.1t1
.8
7.'
RmOn~g
lU
13.5
11.6
69
9.0
AvgAna'
do
92
92
U.4S
R_PIERdo
.53
.60
.411
92
.10
'2
3.5%
AVI Ann'llly'd YIIkI
3.9% 2.5% 29%
4.0'4.6%
1.'"
103.2
114.5
839.5 812.5
611.3
755
79. SIIn 1$noII)
lllOO
862.'
3.9"1.
8.5lI
6.1lI
6.6%
6.1%
4.8%
~5lI
~5lI
~5lI
8.2
8.9
U
(100811
9.1
6.9
U 0'IftCI_
u
8.'
10.6
19.6
24.6
21.0
2111 Nil
23.'
1'.1
26.'
39.0% 39.0% 39.0'/, 38.0'/, 38.0% 38.8% 'lOll
3t'" IncaH Tax RIll
39.'"
281
1.9%
1.f1~ .111
2811 3.21
1111 NIIProIl_
3."
Cap1
(1noW)
,I>
150.7
130.3
flO
154.7 163.0
m
169'
1"9
.f
41.4
1O.5
.1
.1 Lon.T"", _
41.8
40.7
115.3
115.2
127.7
132.6
129.0
141.5
159.8
154.4
160
168.9
1l1li
1115 Shr....... ,lntI1i
115
11.6'
14.1%
6.111
3.6%
11.6%
141%
12.1%
9.a%
6.1%
11.0% fUll Rnn on 1ot1fCIp'
12.8'
11.5"
12.8Wr. 15.01
B.O'/,
6.0% ft.'"
17.1% 14J%
9.llI
13"3."
15.""
tU" RttIm an SlU'. EaUnr
tU"
a.1%
10.4%
F
an 11.(1% 12.6% 10.3% .11 2.5% 7.5lI T.5lI RIWn. III Ccn Eq
3.1'
3,.
AI
DlY'ds
III
NIl
PraI
OMF
361
291
261
281
591
m
'II
3"
BUSINESS: Odmllndustriel,
Inc. is leading manufadunlr or Ip- 1'iI18: 8.4%. Estin. pmi'll age: 6 ,..s. Wages: about 23% of sales.
pa8I b men .00 boys (60% d 2002 saleS), wcman and gm Has 7,427 employees, 572 st.'ehokian..
liIniel' f8niIiBs control
(40%). Map tnnds: Lanier CIohls, Tommy fWIr18I.hltl and golf
CN~ 25% d six:k; WEDGE
Capia~ 11.3%; Dmensi:lnal,
7.9%;
II

19~998
80.09
311
US
.80
.87

1999

2000

...

"'.

~-

--

-,.::

.,

..

_,1noiII

w_.

\1nII1

,
~'"

..'"

"" ""

""

eppal1l~ Nauti::a sub 1100 slacks, 811*1.. Geafrvy Beene, Olear


De La Renla ctIthes. 42% of .. 1M to T-vat, W.I-N., and lands'
End. Has '1 p.e,
10 m l..8tII America, none in U.S. '02 depr.

Sun Trust, 54"; QI.J[)i'., 17.9% (9102 Proxy). Chnnn. & Pres.: J.
H. Lan ... Inc.: Georg . Add.: 222 PiDnonI: A't&'I1W N.E., AiBnta,
GA 3030!. Tel: 4G4-659-2424.11'18nwt:
Wft'.axtonlinc.COm,

Sears' acquisition of Land5' End is a


bonanza for Oxford Industries. In additlon lO holding on to its posiUon as one
of the top su~ners
in the widely distrlbuted Lands'
d catalog (it has been Oxfon::l's thlrdlargest
customer for years).
the com~y
has secured another major
outlet.
ars is now stocking an assortment of Oxford-made Lands' offerings in
its many stores. The rollout to establish
initial base inventory levels in Sears' unJts
8CCQUJlted,
we believe, for a large part. of
the exceptionally hefty increases in both
sales and earnings in Oxford's second and
third quarters (1lsca1 year ends May 30!h).
The February per:lod beneflled addltJonally from a LIFO credit of $0.10 a share due
to the liquidation of LIFO inventory levels
(a result of the company's drive to reduce
its Inventory exposure) and early shipments of spring merchandise. However.
both have negative sides - the credit
won't be repeated. and the ear~ shipments were made at the expense 0 fourthquarter totals. So. the f1naI (May) period of
I1s<:al 2003 appears Ukely to lag sUghtly
the fonner year's postlngs. In addition,
with the rollout of Lands' End's initial in-

store product now substantially completed..


there's just about no chance for a repeat of
this year's massi~ growth in fiscal 2004.
Oxford's Shirt and Slacks Gro'dcs are
the main benefidarles or the a dltion
of Lands' to Sears' seiling space. WhIle
the massiveness of these numbers almost
surely wI11 not be repeated, In that big
third period. the fonner attained a 49% In
crease in unit sales, whUe Slacks shipped
4)% mare units. Interestingly. wlthout the
Sears' stimulus. the company's Womenswear segment produced a 10% unit Increase, as Its customers. the major mass
merchants,
beneflted from !he CWTent
overall consumer tendency to trade down.
Oxford announced. late last month.
that it had signed an agreement to
buy Viewpoint International
owner
of the Tommy BahaJna brand. Vlewpoint's sales approxlmated $330 mlllJon In
the year ended March 31st. The deal is expect.ed to close next month, at which time
we'll factor the acquisition Into our nwnhers. Although this stock is not now timeyleld-oriented Investors mJght find the
lvidend payout of Interest.
Raymond S.
May 16. 2003

......
, .. _.
mid-July. Goes

(CI """ .......

.......,

1101" _

tlUtORS
OR OIIIS9OH$HEREI\I. nB~
*Guit II .........

II"

IlIIII b

.--.

aAitlyIll
~S
01 .-UIiIg q

:Ii

. (E) __

III mid-Aug. Apprut. didand


r-)fR8RfdalB.: .... 1,JIIfJIJ I, Sept. 1,
Dee. 1.
F...........
i5 allllIinellr,.. ~
Ildiemt 10 be I'IIIiItIIe .-.:I G p1M:I~ ....

10

..... -

""

SlDm

B
B

IIIARKET CAp: $275 m11110Q(Sman CilP)

Receivables

13.8

YlJ)

30.3
19.5

'10 TOT. RET\IRIII 4101

Common Stoct 7,519,529 shs.

c.&-~

22.5

26.'

.j

No Defin.cl Benllfil. Pen.iol1 Plan


PId Stock None

~"""Y

22.5

29.B
19.0

1"'11'

I
'5<8 44Bll
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992 1993
1994 1995
1996
59J1O 85.96
75.58 75.~
5023
5921
51.30 ~.42 51.13
123'
1.69
d.l0
Ut
1.32
213
3.04
211
1.56
1.57
24'
.95
d.93
.62
1.42
1.70
1.22
.58
.99
.B2
W
.50
.55
.83
.69
.76
.411
.50
.50
.50
.80
.61
.n .59 .83 .73 .62 .93 1.09 1.70 .86
11.'3
12.28 13.28
11.84
10.~
10.89
11.19
14.79 15.25
14.85
11.02
8.85
. 1
8.69
B.
8.
B.lO
.. 10>
16,
1. 0
10.8
1l.U
10.8
31.6
20.'
.73
.54
.71
1.37
1.oB
.82
1.07
.89
1.98
.'
5.8%
32%
2.9%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1'
42%
3.4'
4.5'
'.1lI
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE or 2I2Mt3
572.9 624.6
657.0
664.'
Due In!i y", S10.2mil.
Total DebtS10.2 mil.
5.8%
8.1lI 4.51
3'%
IT Dlibt$.1 mill.
LT InUrest S.01 mil
7.0
7.8
8.9
8.'
lnd. S.1 miD..capiaized
leB5II!s.
14.8
182
10.6
.9
(L T i'rt1!ft!St 8iIm8d: 10.9x; IDtat nlenlst
39.7%
1O.0'II
lO'% 40.01
coverage: 6. b)
2.6% 3.llI
1.6%
.1lI
('" dCap'O
UUe5, Uncapibllizlod Annual nlntals $3.1 nill.
103.8 1092 143.8 137.3
17.8
12.4
41.0
45.1

CURRENT POSITION

37.7

"-/

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 1 0 0 ~I:
...
000 000 000
"
,;.~
Institutiaral DlIClslans
ZQJ.2
Percent
30
24
ZT
22
22

.., ....

38.B
23.0

60

......
40 l-~l
+10% '"'
'"'
Ii:
JJASOIIIO.lF

24 ....
14.4

0 76 01l"D 2.3%
eo

.(:
'f".

l..ft
Insider Decisions

22.0
16.0

"'.B
21.9

REL\TIIE

11.0 Pl RAOO.

il*s tel:Eniln

.~_>:
200i-48 PRWEC~NS
,,",,'ToIaJ if.
Price

rOiOlIU

RAOO 126t

Modi.,:)
3590W=

LEGENDS
_
all.-CllIIr"-pltJ
. . ".. R:- Price SHlgll

.!ll ('111O. Mart.1iC)

lED.

I~CEJ(J
PRICE

....

III'i*d

Of

~
_rwM"ciII,n.n.I....

eow..n

tiol,.

.........

C.... p~ F.... ""_...


Stock'll mstabillty

B
85
Z5
45

PrbGIUwtfI,.,..1stPoI
Earnings P...tdalllity
rJI ~

Dld.
pill

*din: poWI;IliI:M. ...a ..,...,.

I '

II:

II

l~icT 25.631~oo11.7G=~im)~~

PAPA JOHN'S INT'L NDQPZZA

1IIIEUNESS 3
TECHNiCAl

14.8
9.3

22.2
122

37.4
16.6

39.5
22.6

47.4
21.3

34.9
19.0

29.6
19.0

Nil

0.70 ~
35.2
23.4

2a3
21.6

T,"'v-t Price Ran'lll


120

"* ~~7~'6';-18g~g~t~$~~g~~~t~~~~ggf~*~~~2~O~06U2~OO~7{2008
r~~~l~~'
l.DIClmf .... pm
Rm~ PrR SI8'it"

..

3_-2

.15 (1.llO.MarUt)

HD'-Z~

1'196

~:d.u

AM'

ixb~s

(Nil1 .",

100

80

3o"Jli

6~

J FJI";?

f~JW1

"i"

total ,,..
GIln
Return
\.
(+55%\ ,,% \"..-+--t--f---+--+'t'tll"*-c-f"'ltlI"--'lII+"-+

PrtCil
40
25

45.9
26.3

LEGEND8

2OlJ6.OI PRwECTIONS
~h
l..tiW

'3.3

High:

3 IBlIWJfi
3 iIi5ed &1'1313

WID

lED

lJIRI~ YJ1J3

,I..

J1

tr"~ --_.- .'

11'11' 1,,,1

48

24

Inskt.rJD:c:~n: D J F :,";

~~

.11
....
0"',..'
o,r- 0
0 00
1 1 00000
0 0 0 0 0 0
I~ -+--+-:trtII"h1W"F--+--+7-1""''-t--+--+--'1r--t---+--j--t--+--+'2
. 'I'"
'1/ ..
1\"11

1111 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .~
Institutional Decisions
JQnIJ
Gin
1Ql:In Percent
.. ~
88
47
82.hares

==..,

lZ7~

1'9~

12a~

30
L'O

traded

10

1995 1996 1997


Papa John's opened its first pizza F99"3",:+,,,19,,94"'-\-"""'-II-'-"""-+-"""-+"""'-!-'-::::';'+'''''''''-\'=,'+'''':'''-+=:'''''F':''':-+:-=====+''=-4
restaurant in 1985 in Jeffersonville, Indiana.
4.29
6.65 9.<6 12.53 17.49
The company operaled as a subchapler S
.33
bl
.74
1.60
COJPOfBlionfrom January, 1986, unt~ ~s ini.20
.31
.45
.83

1.11
...

tial putjic offering in J..... 1993.


M. 1hat f-- .... t-....
t-....
hrM'h=-h...-h""h""h=h""hm-h""'h<::rr.:=..;="=~:-t-i~
lime, Mon1gomBf)' Securities brought the
1.22 1.00 1.48

391

1Jl
619
company pUbl~ by selling 1,548 shares at a hm-n""hiffi-h;;;Thirni-hm-ho;;.hiiii-hm-hiiiO-!--ir.i-hiV+>==""'"",'=.-+--iic;;.j
29.00
16.14
price 01 $13 per shara The company netled
16.71
$18 million in i1s initial oII.nng and raised a f-iOiii+-';;';:;+T.'i+~i+-T,T+-'iiiFf--"iTil-'irrt-=""+-''ii'i+':;:;:=-=::+'c.:::i<:;;;;1iiOT.i:::'--t--'i'rr-i
37.1
33.4
44.1
~48 m
lotal 01 $103 million Ihroogh four sub"3
sequen1 oIIenngs through August 011996.
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE
ToUJ DeM$119.9ml.
LT Debl$119.6mill,

as of 3IJCIID3
Du .. Jn 5Yra. 511S.Simil.
IT brterest $8.0 mill

1"1

89.2
8.91

pffI

Stoct Nolle

Common Stock 17,900,335 slls.


IS of 5IMS
MARKET CAP: 5450 million (Small Cap)
CURRENT POSrnON

l.. lLJ
eashAssets

2001

2002

17.6

21.01

36.7"

8.6
11.2
36.8%

5.51

4.51

4.41

d.1

11.1
.5

21.4

19.3

6>6

l06J

15bl
25.51
25.51

11.4%
11.51
11.5%

10.4'"
10.5%

1.7

11.1112.K11.311~" 12.01
31.1
669.8

360.1
'0.91

19.6
19.4
37.8
16.9
37.0% 37.01
S11
5.31
5.61
15.3
18.8 24.2

U
180.6 21~7
161.7
13.1
18.6

37.01
1021

10JI
10.3"

12.61
12.6%
12.6'

14.41
14.4%
1-4.4"

805.3
1S1
50.7

38.01
6.31
d22.7

.9
292.1

' ....5
16.3

911.2

341

351

166.3

17.3'11 16.4"
17.4% 28.51
H.4% 28.5%

9462

472
46.8
37.71
37.5%
4.91
4.91
111.3 d17.3

47.4
3821
5.01
d4.3
145.7

l05.t
195.6

139.9
121.9

17.'%
24.21
24.2%

19.3%
38.4%
38.4%

15.9
17.8

BUS"ESS: PSpiI Johns InfL is 118fourth largest plns chain In


the U.S., operating and linsng delivery sUes 11 019 llates. At
'-4.8
12129m, there W&B 2,792 rntMnlltl; 594 ...
awnell by IMl
56.5
25.1 cornparlJ and 2,198 WIQ hnchised. AI!ID!Ills 144 PlIffect Pizza
resti!llnnts Ii '1M U.K. 0pIntes ccmnisslnes thai: dDbula'"
54.5 9f*IiInts to l1dMdual litera. '02 l1M'tIIue brBakdown: CCJI11)any-

15.9
17.1
65.1"""5f.:i
23.8
23.6
2.2.3
42.4
50.9
66.4

125
'15 Knill
($nIII)
fUll fUX 1
iI"";
310
310 Dtpoddan Ilnl)
JU
40.0 NelPruil'IlIIan
n.", J7.5X lnaneTuRl1l
4.1"
....JX, NtlPrDfl.1lJil1n
d2U
dll.O WortlnSlc.p1(Sn1111.}
f5D
UO lonIITMTn DIbI($nlUI)
110
'JIJ Sh,:E6uI1vI$mll\
17.0%

1l""

R.unonTobICIp'

35.~

3O.OX KIturn on Shr. EauitY

35.0%

3D.OX RI1ainId 111COnl Eq


Nil All DlY'da tD N.t ProI

N'

----ru

"""""""i9.9

1000

,,""
3>.0
410
17.",
4.",
d5U
15D

m
11.",
1l5"
11..5%

H'

owned sUes, 4~% of total; frilndllsle royalies, 5%; fnlndlise developmenl fees, 1%; awmissary and equipment sales. 49%. Has
about. 15,325 employees. OII"JIli'. lMII 37.'''' d lDm'IOn; FMR
Cap., 15.2'" (4103 ~).
CEO: John H. 5chndar. Inc.: DE. Adrhss: 11492 BkJegrns
Pkwy . l.ouilvle. ICY 40299-2334.
T..
phone: 502-266-5200. Irnarn.rt: www.papajohns.com.

Papa John"s recent results have given

them lQ price more aggressively than the

Pm Est'd
02
Un.
ta .
28.5%
6.07'
27.5%
4.5%

Eami1gs
DNm~s

- - 25.5%
.--

800k Value

4.5"
Na
f2.OK

5.5%

QUIRTBlLYRE'IBIW II oil

IIIr.3t

944.7

8.0 f-::====:::"-:-::7'!"""""""::-C7'..J,-.,--'--;::-'-,--,---'---:-L.=~c:;-=:!::::=~===-=,---;:=e:-,-,---1

9.5

18.9
12.1

ANNUAL RATES Put


aftfgnglu-ltI,
llYn.
RBYenua
-''Cash Flow"
-

ea.

71

253.4
9.61

R&cBivebles
Inventory (FIFO)
Other
Current Ass8Cs
Aa:ts Payable
Debt DlJe
Other
Cumtrrt Liab.

.. du

JDCUQS

9.011

5.1

",Cap'Q

No Dllfined Benllfit PenslGn PIaD

161.5

Jun.30 S,n..3D,. Dec.!'


231.6 22A.e 161.3

F.II
Year
944.7

_
227.0
2001 2411.0239.2 :ICD.l143.9 9111
lOOZ
236.6 227.9 236.0 946.1
2003
_

245.1

232.3 Z3S
135
237

ZZ5

zze

2J17
235

EARNlHGSPERSHAR!A
endar 1Iar.!1 JudO Sep.3D Dec.!1
CaJ.

_ .45

2001
2002

.56
.60

2003
_

.81
.12

-
taludu

.51
.55
.59

.48
.<16
.53

.51
.59

.55

.50
.53

.54
.51

.S]

.f]

QUARTERLYDfVI)EJI)5PAm
Mar.31 Jun.30 Se~u--Dec.31

135
Full
Year
1.90'

1.116
~31

~zo
~JD
Full
Y....

1191

200'
2IDZ

NO CASH DMDENOS
8BNG PAID

IBl

(AI Oluted 8lWn1llgS tom 1997: pnnary 08111Pw slw1l figiftS for 1993 In pm bmL
WllJS111'96. EJ:dudes non-recumg II:;uBs: 99, C In mlms,
alljusted b sb;k spills.
11, '00, 63j. NexI: 8lIf1'Ilngs report due Iftl
July.
II ZIIll. 'MJe liH! Pubbhilg. __ AI riIlU rt5eIftIll. Falbl ~
i$ atUiIB from 1IUtl:5 ~
I;
TIlr PUBUSiER

IS I)T IlESf'ONSB..[
tOR
II.~

III ~ ..,. fit repiIlOIaIL reDi. ....

Nf'!

(0) QuarIfn do not .xl llue to change


sluRs outstanding.

be"" ...

ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HER[lN. TIm ~


is ~
ear ~
...., fd*d, ......
_ b.....lI!tId blJlft"*lJ ..... teIi'lg

wry ~

is

JJOfidelI

CIIIIn. -.
llf __

~
C
.,.....,.

in

Campany's Flnandl.l 51......_


Stoct' ~rk:e stlbllItJ
pnc. Growth P.rsiltllnc:e
E.mlnp P~bllIlJ

.. 8IIJ' IIM.~~.
me. Na IJMI

tB1i:r II plQl:l

'.

Bot
70
70
90
II.

I I

Nil

ROGERS CORP. NYSEROG

Tarpt Pric. Rilngll


2006 2007 2008

~'.'"

".

.e._ ._

",

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 '992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
12.18 13.54 14.28 15.47 14.78 13.90
9.56
9.50
9.83
9.55 12.57 14.22 16.90 16.44 14.07 14.16 tU5
ttZ5
1.00
.88
1.00 1.10
.93
.90
1.04 1.19
132
1.33
1.\3
H6
1.96 2.60
1.92
2.06
135
155
.28
.08
.13
.19
d.02
.02
.52
.71
.85
.92
1.05
.87
1.19 1.69
.96
1.16
1.411 1.55
.D3
.03
.OJ
.D3
.02
.01

.
.
III
NI
.98
1.26
.93
1.11
.95
.73
.61
.33
.62
.43
1.18 1.90
.93
1lit
1.11
U6
U5
1.15
4.47 4.43
4.55 4..45
421
1.54 2.16 3.20 421
521
6.26 724
1.94 9.65 10.62 11.81 12.10 1115
11.93 12.00 lZ.25 12.30 U ..34
1z.4tl ll:.tI!:I 14.09 14.27 14.81 15.U!I 1524 lUG
15.1u
5.36 15.:Jtl 11.15 lUo
20.6
79.8 43.1
26.9
-NMI"
9.8
11.1
15.3 1311
16.6 19.1 13.4 19.5
31.8
24.1 ~~
~_
1.38 6.63 326
2.00
.
NMF
.5B
.TT
1.02
.as
.96
.99
.76 127
1.63 1.32 ~....
.5%
~I
.'1 .61
.'1
21
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
- 0-

""RKETCAP: $525 trtillion {Small C.p)


CURRENT POSITION
2001
2002 313M3
Cash Assets

,"LLI

20.9

28.9

30.2

BUSINESS: RogeR CorpcQtbn makes primIId cn:ul maEriel5,

Currenl AssIlts
AcdsPayabie
Debt Due

84.9
12.0
_

87.1

91.9
9.0
--

at

P.nslon Assets $60.5 rnIII.

Oblig, $88.8 ml.

PIlI Stock None


Common Stock 15,943,898
sits.
D ot4l1B1OJ

133.9 1.tD.3 141..5 169.1 216.6


12.7% 13.4' 138' 14.2' i3.0'
6.7
5J
'.6
6.6
U
10.1 13.1 13.9 16.5 13.6
5.4% 15.0" 21.o" 25.lIl 28.O!t
1.67i 9.31 9.9'
II.'" 6.4"
24.7
31.4 38.1
4S~
42.0
6.7
42
3.6
13.7 13.7
45.1 60.1
".2
94.4 110.2
21.lIl 21.2'4 11.8' 15.7' 11.6"
22.5'4 21.6' 18.1% 17..5%12.51
22.5' 21.6' 16.'" 17.5' 12.5\
-
-_.

.-

123.2
1m
6.7
6.1
.7,
5."
13.1
14.2
27.9
17.5'
23.91
23.91Ii
-

CAPITALSTRUCTUREanf3l3lND3
TatllDl:blNone

241.6 20.2
14.D% 16.9'1.
10.4 12.'
18.6 26.7
28.0% 29.0'
1..51 10.81,
35.9 54.1
9.7
9.1
116.4 145.6
15.4' 17.6'
16.0' 18.3'
16.0' 18.31i

216.0
12.4%
13.7
15.7
25.0,,"
1.3'
"2
1.3
163.1
9.7'
9.61
9.6'

219.4
12.6"
13.6
18.6
25.0'4
11.5"
ill

183.0
10.2%
10.21
10~
_.

as

cYALUEUNEPlIl.e.
s.I ...
sII.(AI
JG.lQ
'CuII __ 1"'a11
110
Eamklglpwlh till
uti
Dfw"dsDld'dp'l'Ih.1q
iii
CIpUpIftC1inIlPI
... h
1.30
BookYaMpw'"
2105
1;0000000000ShsOU1ll'II1D17.011
AYSlMlIlPlERdo
JU
RIiIIlivtIPIERda
f..J5
'" Amo'lllIY'd l'IIId
HI

225 SIIes(WI

1t5%
Ita
110

14.n 0...
1_
110 0'l"d_ISnlI,
ZlO Nel:ProIt~
an 25.n Inc:arMTuRldi
11.5 11.1" HIt ProtII'"
""0
710 W_OCap' (SnIMI
NO
NO I.Got~T":,,,
":'1"_1.... 1
205
Z3ll Shr.tlKII' .... J
11.0% 11.5" RIbn1llllT~~
11,0% 11.5% Rnm II1II Shr. E~
1f.MII fU" RMaMd'klCcnEq
Nil
HI AI DlY'dllD NIt. PraI

J5d
1.n
140
0.0
13.01
1US
lOll

N'

175
11.5"

".5%
11.9"
N'

~1=

RlD: 82% of sallis. 2002 depr9ciilllil:Jn 11118:1.1"'- Has 1,251 em-

~~~FO}
~1~:!~:}=ml1-::;,~r=t:e::'~~~=~s~
=.m~.:,,"~~=I~:

g:':nt

--!LI

10.1
--

Rogln INOAC (Japanese high-performance e1Bmn.n), Dlftl


Lmi AbbeII, 9.0,," (3m prmy). Chilmn:
W. Boorns". Pr8si:Ient:
(ellN:*DlllmilesaHlt
~~
PoIymiM lMnina, Sj'St.ns (print8d R Wachob. Inc.: Mass. AdM.: One redll'lotlg, DrWe, RosJ-a, CT
ci'cul mmnO, and Rogn Chang Coon (prinIed cEuiI fT1iIIllriaO. 06263-0188. T&I.:860-774-96DS. InI8rnBt:www.rogerw;orp.mm.

25.8
Rogers is doing something
that most ness. Even today, three fuel cell companies
34.8 34.8 companies can"t do. Despite a 5% are followed by WUue Line in Issue six of
ANNUAl. RATES 1~;:'
Put Esf'd "01-'02 decline in flrst-quarter sales, share
earnRatings & Reports. All three continually
~~<P-~l
5~~
ings were 50% higher. There are three rea- lose lots of money, (and the stocks of all
''CashRaw"
8.5% 9.5"
8.5"
som far thJs. FJrst, its four unconsolJdated
three are ranked 3 Average) or lower for
~~
35.0%
6.5%
12.~
Joint ventures are an integral part of the TImeliness. Rogers has worked with a
BookV.lue
1l.o% 15.5%
business and, if the Rogers half-share of number of companies over the past few
them were to be added to the parent's rev- years on spedalty mater1als for use In fuel
e... d.rllJ.p ..AJlTBl[J"".!~r
s.--.1...10,1.~"'Full
enues, sales would be seen to have risen cells and recently agreed to llcense addJ....lIar
.... .Uo'
..........
,...,.
sllghtly. Second, last November's disposi- tional technology related. to its own devel2100 63.6 61.3 62.4 60.9 2248'6.'02
tlon of the Moldable Composites Division opment activities. We think that this new
200'1
63.8 53.2 51.0 48.0
lowered sales and raised profits. Third,
role in the business
is a very speculative
2002 54.6 57.3 56.0 51.5 219.4 Rogers' continuing
cost-reduction
pro- undertaki~,
but Rogers assures us that it
lOO3 51.9
so.O so.O 511
205
201M 510
57.0
510
Z25
grams are among the best organized in the will severe y llmlt its exposure to possible
c.
EARtlNGS
PBlSHARE
00
Full
business
world.
losses in the new venture .
r.Per Juft.Per SID.Ptr DecJI.
'Ibe outlook continues to be positive. Rogers may need to speculate. Despite
Indar
Despite the very llm1ted global economic the company's profit progress, Its TimeU.37
.41 .4C .47 1.69 recovery that prevents
strong sales ad- ness rank remains 3 (Average).
Yet the
.42 .1:Z .20
.24
.98 vances, Rogers' profits are likely to keep share price has advanced enough to leave
:~
.24 .28 .30 .~
1.16 mounting rapidly. We do have one small
less-than-median
stock price appreciation
201M ~
:::
::
~z
;::;
caveat,
however, In that Rogers has in- potential. It would seem that the company
QUARTERLY
DIVIIBGS PAIl
(C)
ltiated development work on fuel cells.
must do something to increase
Its 2006Uab.

24.7

29.1

tDrs:

13.C:

.Q

'.r

.1

.~r
r.31Jun.30Sep.30 DK.31 ~:
t911
::
NOCASH
DMOENDS

2002

BBNG PAID

2003

":::ed~~~
'::'fi:i

:~:r:th:rs~::
cells to replace generators andlor battery
acks has attracted entrepreneurs
for at
east two decades. Th our knowledge,
no
one has succeeded financlal1y in this busl-

r.

(A) Canbined 51., irldudrI9 SO"" at unS220.9 ITiIIDrlIJ '91.


mnsoImted joint wnlulllS, d 12M.7 nJIm WI:
Pmay 8W1Ji1gs lhIDugh 1.998; dJrbd
"02,1276.2 mIion iI '01, $31&.8mlbn in '00, thentllftlll". Nexl: 8lIfIIIIgSreport dUElnid$285.0 milb! II '99, $245.3 m.... II '98,
0dDber. Excludes nonrecwring cIuqes: '90,
C lUll, KIt 1ft: Putli5tlinQ. Int. AI ,.
~.
FKllIII .....
i5 ottllillN tnn ~
IMllielellIo be
1llr P\&.ISHER IS MJI RE~SIn.lORNf(
III ~ OJ lie Itp'IlIImI. le5IIIIl.""
CI"""

I.(S}

ERRORS ORCMSSKlNSH[R[".1bi5~i5~
1l1llJ,....s. ...
_ .......
CIC5IIIII
b ~.

~:

~~S;roj~eAn~~~2;2y
~f~~:.
Ing all this is to recognize that even
though Rogers has been doing well of late,
It stock has been perl"onning even better.
Lucien Virgile
July 18. 2003

1:$0.39; '91, $0.17; '92, $2.66.


(C) Dwdend d5cmIiII'usd.

Company. Financial"''''

lAst pa)TN'flf medcI

Sbck'-

Febnwy 12, 1992.


(D) In mmts, adjusted b st:d. spits.

~
... is pariIIelI wtIlcq WIlnlIlie5 .. MJ Uld.
b"1IIb1I:rm'I-.i1o
.......... c....i...IIII!lTllllI1R. pM
~..,
pIi-.I_.-.ni: fIIIMi::*l. 5Int:e,. pmd.:a.

B+
&5
10
60

Prk Stabllfy

pnc. Growth PerellteflQ


Eaml. Predictabllty
_
I

I "

t I:

II'

RPM INT3 'L NYSE.RPM

JIIEUNESS

laIMdi'&ll2

SAfETY

PIN llZ1BO

TECHNiCAl

u..1!d raMll

r_LEGENDS
1D.DI~F

~...,.

14.9
1'.S

16.8
12.5

18.0
12.8

16.5
9.9

11.3
7.8

15.0
7.9

17.9
11.6

IlIV'D

lID _

411
10

15.9
9.1

__ p!h

s-fDr-4~1~
3.fof 2 ~
tZf!2

An,""" ~~

Gain
Return
' ...55%\ 14"

HIgh
LA1J.
14 1~10%1
Insider DecisIOns
J
0

Modi.,:II]

.. _. Relilile Pli::e 5nngll

201&-08 PROJEcnoNS
Price
20

12 76~'IRATI!
IP~ 117(T'.',:
Ill) IIWTNE 070

P~RATIl.

Hlgh:/
11.8
12.4
12.6
13.8
I ~L~""~:~""''"'.'.L-,,'O''.'!..I......,''O.4
11.4

.ID (1.l1O. Nlrbl)

8fA

I[lECEHI
IPRICE.

&%

I.~~
~

;."<

AS0
J
0 0 0 If
0 D
0 0

:~

O,.... ~
!>II6dftI ftI nk*J fenossiolJ
", I 'II

... ,,1

,II

~~'"
--

,"

, 1

. _. "....

0"

'"~~7:-+--+---t--+--+-"4---t..,.--..,.--+--+-"4--f--+--+--if--+---+---t-"

F 0 F
0

""0120000;'"

bl~

0 1 2 2 4 0 0 0 0 ~~
9
6
3

1992 1993
1.49 U6
01
5.21 5.11
6.13
6.87
.73
.82
.40
."
.52
.60
.64
.<6
.51
.26
.32
.31
.42
.43
.3D
.15
.18
21
13
.26
2B
.25
.16
.'0
.13
.16
.23
.23
1.96 2.08 2.23 2.44
2..83
3.01 3.23
60.40 "."
".89
06.13 /2." 13.11 rJ.!14
18.6 15.1 .oJ
15.6
17.4 19.
21.4
1.26
124
1.30
1.12
1.16
1.11 111
3.1'
3.6% 3.8% 3.5%
3.4% 3.'% 2.8\
CAPITAL STRUCTURE u of Z/2MI3
625.7
Total Debt $699.6mil. Due In 5 Yrs $585.0 mil.
16.1%
LT Debt $694,8 mill.
IT Intw:rest $25.0 mil.
21.4
(LT inl euned: 7.Ox)
(43% ofCl.p1)
39.4
40.4%
Len., UncapltaUudAnnuilllen1a1s $16.4lri1.
6.3%
Pension Assets 5IQ2 $85.3 ml. Oblig. $96.2 mil.
PhI Stock None

Common Stock 115,594,000shs.


IlARKETCAP:,t.5
billion (MidCapJ
CURRENT POSrrlON

ZD01

2002

Cash Assets

24.0

422

Reativables

411.7
277.5
106.2
819..

397.7

3192

251.4
110.0
801.3

262.9
121.9

(lIIlLl

Inventory
(FIFO)
Other
CummlAslets
~P8y.bIe
Debt Due
Other
eunwntUab.

2J2MD
62.2

""'76i.2

160.8
117.0
5.9
4.8
19aO -.1!Q2

1~
7.4

162.8

220.9
239.1
10.1%
16.5%

5'1'.

-10.4

23.8

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 cYAl.IJfUNEPIl8
~C. ~
9.20 11.43 11.74 13.71 16.11 15.46 18.95 19.64 11.32 11.15 11.45 SIIB ..... A
21.35
.89
1.10
1.15 1.32
1.44 "'1
1.53
1.41
1.38
1.55
1.10 "CaSJ FIcnr" PM' Itl
1.10
.~
.65
.69
.76
.84
.86
.73
.62
.97
1.05
1.10 Enings pII" 1h
1.20
.33
.35
.38
.41
.44
.46
.49
.50
.50
.52
.53 Di'dsDKI'dCIWIh c.
.55
.29
.32
.34
:J7
.60
.57
.61
.53
.35
.!5
.CO CIp'1Splnd"1Il1l
per"
.15
3.55 3.91
4.61 5.03 5.66 6.11
6.26
6.26
7.48
U5
ll5 BoakValuepwlh
D
10.05
88.67 ~.UU ~.61 !ftl.l)!1 100.25 110.14 10J.1J 102.21 UlI.7u 115.fII1 n5.w I(;OIW'Ion~nslJUtSt'lll1: 111.00

A.

20.0

18.4

18.4

17.8

19.3

17.3

16.1

1.(9

13.5

8ald1V~_

1.31
2.9%

1.23
3.0%

1.15
3.0"

1.03
3.0%

tOll
2.1"

.19
3.1%

1.05
U"

.76
5.""

.71
3.8%

~_...
.....

815.6
15.6%
25..9
5Z.G
40.2'
6.5"

1017.0 1136.4 1350.5 1615.3


16.4% 16.6S 16.2" 15.15
36.9 42.6
51.1 57.0
61.1
68..9 78.3
87.8
4UI. 42.5' 4Z.3% 41.3'
6.0"
6.'"
5.8"4 5.4"
127.0
170.2
275.7 478.5 386.7
233.0 406.4 447.7 184.4 n5.1
314.5 347.6 445.8 493.3 567.1
10.8" 9.6% 9.1"
H%
8.4%
16.7114 17.6% 15.5" 15.9% 15.5%

AygAnft'l PIERrio

R_P/ERdo
AYII AnnHlIY'd Y"1IkI

17122 1954.1 2IlO7.8 1966.1 ZOIO 1125 ~s(~)


A.
14.9% 13.0% 12.4" 12.1" 1.t~ 1.t~
6Z.1 792
81.5
56.9
51.0
51.1 OlpKldon(SnIJ)
94.5
78.6
63.0 101.6
120
115 IRtProtlW,
40.8" 36.5% 38.0" 34.1% 35.0% 35.0% IncarH Tu RIll
5.5"
4.0% 3.1"
5.1"
5.'"
5.'" NltPruftlIlIrJln
402.8
406.9
443.6 436.6
4t5
4 Wortinll '-fl" (lmill
582.1 959.3 955.4 707.9
175
700 LangT.-mDlbt(W)
74Z.9 645.7 639.1 858.1
135
"5 Shr.-Eauify IWI
U"
6.5% 6.0% 1.8% '.5%
to% RdnonToIIIC1p'1
12.11. fU%
9.S" 11.S" 13.0% 110% RDml on $hr. fan

1.1~

1191

1I.6~

T.2ti.

T.sti

7.1191

5.991

4.1%

1.97i

5.791

571.

571.

51%

5391

51%

49"

531

66"

SO"

52%

BUSINEss: RPM Inn mho prcItecIive COiII:IigI. inr.:L paints,


I8alantt, roaI'lo'1g membralMlS,&.uk:l toudl-up products. Brilnds:
AIaJ', Afumamrtion, _.
_,~.
u c..-.., ""~~, FIo...........
r-u
qui, Geaftu, UllltiJ ""fI~,""ohtIw/(, Rust~,
TlllaoI, T~.
Ac:q'd Martin Mathys,
3/92;
Ser*y
PoIymIn,
5192;
DynRDnlBondo. 6IB3; Sionhanl, 10193:Rust-QlelJ'n (U.s.), &94;

loti;

50%

5D% AI DiY'dl

A.1falned1DCCIIIIEq

*' NIl: Prof

15.D

1.00
11%
Z500
1U"
70.0
140
J5.0%
5.1%
5fJD
!SIt
1175

7.5%
12.0%

t5%
"'"

DryYit Sysl.ems, 9195; ro,

1136; 1...-.00, 2197; FlBdo, Ml8; CAP,


8199. Foreign DpeI'"., 22% or $.lies. Est"d. plant age, 4 )'1'5. Has
about 7,700 ""'p~.,
80,000 striJ~.
on. IInd Di". awn 3.5% d

c:mmon

"'1~

stock (8102 Proxy). Chrmn.: Thomas C. SuliYan. CEO:


Fran" C. Sulivan. lnc.: DE. AddI9ss: BaI[ m, 262B PBiIIt Rd.,
Medina. OH 44258. Tel.: 330-273-5090.IrdBmet: www.rpminc.cr;Jm.

of cl
RPM"s sales are rising. but underlying
gtven that its number
alms is CDmbusiness
conditions
are soft. Both of paraUve1y small. it would conceivably be
ANNUAl RATES Pul
,.t Est'dW.'GZ
the company's operating units, Consumer
able to meet the obUgation with only a
1~~j)%
and Industrial, are benefiting from favor- modest impact to earnings. Nonetheless,
"Cesh FkJI('
8.0%
4.0%
".OK
able currency translation effects owing to the likelihood of the bill passing is difficult
Eamilgs
6.0% 2.0'"
7.5"
the weakening dollar. Several small acqul- to detennine. RPM is currently assessing
=~I~
sltions have also helped bolster results.
the extent of Its future llabUities, and
Excluding a new effort to boost service of- plans to take a one-time charge once the
~~
QUARTERLY SALfS IS".) A.
ferlngs at the Industrial dJvision. sales evaluation is c.ompleted. Initial indications
Erm AusI.31Nov. Feb.21 Illy 31 V.. r have been flat compared to a year ago. are that claims may amount
to about $30
2000 495.5 500.4 411.4 546.8 1954.1 And the Consumer segment is experlencmillion a year. or north oC $0.] 5 a share.
2001 554.9 499.9 405.5 547.5 2007.8 ing moderate volume decllnes. Given ill- Because RPMs capital needs are Umited,
2102 533.3
487.9 .fD7.5 551." 1986.1 defined global econonUc prospects, the dif- the company could
mver
this with cash
2t03
542.4 518.0 433.6 5AO _
2ICM 5611
53Q
44D
5J5 2125
ftcu1t operating environment may persist.
flow, though it may ternper resources
F"1KaI
EARHlNGS PER SIIARE A. II
Fill
The top line. however, is likely to expand avaUable to pursue acquisitions. In add1l=r ""8.31 Nov.30 Feb.21 Illy 31 FIscal in fiscal 2004 (ends May 31. 2004), due to lion, the nwnber of claims in the years
~r the impact oC the acquisitions. Profits.
ahead could surpass present estimates.
20ltt
.31 .19 .04
.19 .73 meanwhile. ~ rising modestly.
The asbestos overhang limits the at2001 .28
.17
d.D7
.24
.62 Insurance
coverage
for
asbestos
tractiveness
of this issue. The dividend
216.1
375.8

364.7

302.3

17.::;;;::;;:':;::=-;;":;-:'::=-::'7"'=::O-:::;:;;J

Io~:
~:g~g:~~U:
r.i:,:::;r';;;,=:;;;;;;.c=':i:iO-;-,=i,;"
;~(pliT.,)

'r5",

t~

~""-F~;:",,::::;r"";;--=T.+!!Y..

:: :: :: :: :~~~~~:~/sth~:~~~nd~~ ~::~e:~~:
~aa~~ c==

1.

~~

QUARTERl.YDl't'laDSPAI)c.
IIlr.31
SeD.30 Dec.31

Jun.30

:::r

r::=-+"='-''''''':'-''C''':'''--'':=-'t-':'::::-i

20DI
2001
2DD2

2t03

.118
.123
.125
.125
.13

.118
.123
.125
.'25
.13

.118
.123
.125
.'25

.123
.125
.125
.13

A8
.49
.50
.51

earlier this year. Of late, the stock price


has staged a partlal
recovery. which we
think may be a reaction LO a bill introduced in Congress that would cap corporate asbestos liabilities by establishing a
lnJst fund to pay claimants. It is unclear
what RPM would owe in this scenario. but

~ae~~
~od ~t
rent claims, capital
needs, and the payout.
Neveflhe1ess, the possibillty remains
that
claims and liabiUtles could surge. As sum,
these shares are most suitable for speculalive investors. as Cavorable leglslat10n
would Ukely boost the stock price.
Noah Goldner
June 20, 2003

"1 F-=aI)'8III" ends Mil)' 31..


,IJd-JuIy Apprmm.tB diviSendpaymentdns:
B DilItAd&allings. Pnna:ry earnings prior t. Late .IiIn., Apr.,July. Cd. DiYllendremest
11991.
NexlIIllIn'li1gs mpcrt dll8 .... Juty.
pIIIn ~alilbllil.
.

$5.15tsh.
Compeny'li Fmndal strength
(E) In mlixls, IIdjusted b sDck spits.
SlDck's PrlC8stability
(F) E.-n'ngs de lid sum dll8 b changes in
Pa GrowthPlinlstlinca
(C) Next dlY'dmeeting M1y July. Nut BJ( data (D) Ind. mangbles. In 2002: $592.3 mi.,
shns eut.lalMling.
Earnl. PrMlldl.bIltJ
o llI11 ~
L-.e AdstliIQ, Inc, N nQI'U ma'WIt. fKf8lIlllleNf is CCUnl!d ttoIII ~
~
IG be r**.,
iI;
fII.., gilt __
THr PWUSHEFl.1SMlT RE:SPOMsmE lOR lit'! ERRO~ OR ClIII~
HE.REJ,1.TlIiI. puI:IIicUn is SI'icIy b' ~
_~
......
_. Ropan.

"
: I I:
II ~ III)' lie ~
~
...
or..-d III1lJ' prN!d. *dIlIril: ClIlIIleI tn.. ClIIr5IId IClI ~
w.-t*}."
or~"'"
YI'ID" fIIIldud..

1JU'i*d"""'.~

75
20
75
I I

I/IlECENJ
PRICE 24 29i1~
I IRAllO 16 8(1";1'1'
1Ie dllFIU)

RUBY TUESDAY. INC. NYSERI

High:
Low:

5.8
3.8

72
4.2

10.6
6.0

11.0
8.2

16.6
7.8

RfLIlI\IE
P!
RAllO.
21.7
13.3

Institutional
II..,

DKlalons
71

I::". 49~:

4~~

99
5~

20.8
15.9

.,

.,,1

1,,1,1'
.. TOT. RETlJRtI 2103

.~'

79

I 11\11111,'

1M)

27.2.
14.2

.. - .-

Har-l

.. I
11"

1 00 lID 0.2%

shares

traded

~~~~~&~mi~~~m!ji~I~
l~AL~~PIE~
""".-

IQ2IU Gill
1Q2.1 Permnl
Ruby Tuesday
began operating
in 72 as12a 1993 1994 1995 1996 199} 1~B 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004
single restaurant near the University of Ten.
..
-8.M
925
10.85 1t.28 12.92 12.49 12.98 1.f,.DO 1UQ R.... lMIlp-sh...
fW
ness.. 's Knoxv~. campu. In '82, the bus>
-
-.18
.90
1.05 1.19 1.43
1.48
1.11
205
245 "Cull R.....
'"
145
ness was sold to Morrison Restaurants. On
-.

.28
.35
.-42
.54
.72
.91
1.15
US
1.1' Ewnirgrplf'M A.
1.SI
..
.
.
..
..
,02
.05
.os .05 .05 .05 .05 Diw'dl DKI'd pIf '" c
.07
311196, Moroson'. shareholders approwd
Ihe distribution oIth. casual, family dining, 1--....:.:+-....:.:+....:.:+....,;it
---1.56 ....;;+-i;;<-l--.T,--hm-t--7.ii+-nit-,:;rr---i<if.~r=.;;;;'if.;";;~:-t--.:T.-l
1.04
1.00 '.13
1.53
.98
1.13
W
250 C",,'ISpon,," ... '"
245

2.83
3.16
324
3.46
3.n
4..50
5.21
145
UG BooilYlluepw1hD
105
and heanhca .. businesses 10 shrhldrs; fOlK

,n.
f-:==t+::=+=+~~:$,it+~m:Jj~pjrttpmp~~gJ~~~~~~~~

sha... 01 the new entily (renamed Ruby


Tuesday) for every eigM shares (adjusted) ~
01 Morrison. The family dining and healthcare businesses were spun off, 319196.

.
--

CAPrrAL STRUCTUREas of !14m


Tatal Dtibt 1213.9
mil. Ou.1n 5 Yrs $213.9
mi.
LT ~blI213.3mil. LT1rrt.l1ist 112.0mi.

..

..

(35%dCop'O

lIS of4l101DJ

ca~~

10.6

ReCltivables

12.3
20.7
83.6
34.9

56.3
---s3:3

52.9
88.4

6.8

(FIFO)

OIher
CUl'I'8nl Assets
Acds PllY8bJe
Debt Due

Other
Current
uab.

45.3
88.4

69.
18.6
1.11

..

..

620.1 655.4 711.4


72Z.3
197.5
189.6
8332
11.0% 12.4% 12.4% 13.8% 14.S% 15.6% I1J%
34.8

0.88
13.
.18

38.6

.1
18.1
..
.3%

39.5

18.1
.92
.5%

39.4

131
.86
.5\

41.9

33.9

45.0

1DfD R.... ues($IwI) A


,1.0% 0_
M...
SUI DlJIICidon

(SIal)

..

3.1%

3~%

4.1%

'.1%

'.8%

1'%

9.1%

... lI

lUll

..
_.

d33.3
16.1

d33.6

d37.5

d32.0

d51.3

d24.0
152

d4.4
1.6

ell5.0
ZZ5

tl710 Wcn!IIi CIp'IISn->


US Lon8T.,..D.bl:(W)

-_.
..

-.
..

..
.
..

17.8

__

78.0 6U
191.3 223.6 2122
8.1% 9.1% 1111
9.81 11.21 13.71
9.BI 11.21 13.01

51

16.8
.6
221.8 229.8 284.3 334.4
SZll Sh,:EquIIyIlmIIIi
12.9% 21.11 20.0% 22.2% f4.~
f4.5% Rn.nonToW~'
16.51 20.31 20.8"
22.71 1'.'"
1,"," Rr!umonSltr.E~
15.1' 19.0% 19.8.... 21.8" 20.5% 11.5" RltaiMdloCotaEq
8\
6%
5"
-4%
."
'" AI Diw'dllo Net PraI

BUSINESS: Ruby TuesdllY, lnc. DpmDls 421 RulJy TlIllsdllY fulS8fYice,casual dnllg restaurants in 25 Na1IKIasl, Sm*!, SouIh8851. and MilM.tll.ntic stIlBa (&10 12J31Cl2).
The I85IalAnts hature
II WllIe ~
of IT'IIIIIU1Im!I, wiIh an ~
check of ~
$10.
Abo frand1ises 206 unils, indo 19 inn. ~
salll ci 41 Amer
an CaN *nc1 27 TI!I'. Tu-llu nlS1all'lnbl (FY '00 yes $1082

12.B

""""It_

--

sameperiod.
only J %.
Iraq war
''Cash FJow"
~13.0% 14.5"
and a sluggish domestic economy. These
Earni1gs
-24.5% 18.0"
factors have partJcularly hurt mall traffic,
[]lVidends

Ii,",
Boc:* Value
__ 8.5"
21.5"
on whkh
roughly 30% of Ruby Tuesday's
1-i.:=r======",",':7.:T"",.""c-l restaurants depend. We expect sort
~acaI QUARTBU.Y
REVENUES
(IIIILJ
Af"
FI..-I
demand to persist
over the next. couple of
E: ~PltrNav.PerFtb,Per IIJ'f:'e V.r quarters.
although consumer confidence
2001 195.3 193.8 209.2 199.2 797.5 increased in April and May. Management
2101 205.0 196.7 191.5 196.4 789.6 is optlmistlc about mall traffic, which it
2002 203.0 199.0 213.7 217.5 833.2 says has picked up in recent weeks.
2003 222.5 211.' 232.9 231.1 iOl
20CW
W
ze aD 11$ 1D1D On the positive side. an itnproving
FiacaI
EARlMGSPERSHAREA"Ful cost environment
should
help lift the
ug.PerNO'I.Per
Feb.Ptr
Aac:aI
bottom
line. General and. administrative
h'ii~+=","=::'::;i'-'-=;<,=-=;o;:+-''''''~'rl expenses have grown. mainly due to 1n2DDO
.16
.13
.21
.12
.72 creased training to llft the
service level
laOl .20 .11 .28 .26
.91 and support store opentngs. Too. deprecla
2002
.26
.23
.34
.32
Uon and interest costs are higher. owing in

Ruby

Tuesday

posted

weak

I",.

~Ji

I5.OG
fU
1.05
.JI
flOG

RO%

IQ.'

n.

12'"
l5.0
US

125
f4.5%
f1.9
f1.OK
a

mil) on 11fl11OO.labor cosIs: abl32%01 nM. lJ2 deprvc. m:


6.1". Has 11,900 full-tme and 19.500
plllllmpOyees,alll 5,700
IhrtltIn.. on. & dir. own 4.8'" oIlXIl'mIDn; Westport Ass8I Mgrrt.,
7.7%; T. RDwB Pra, 5.8'1. (MJ2 ~I. Chalmln & CEO: Sa'l'lueI
E. B.IIII. Inc.: GA.. ~.:
150 W_ Chwch Avenue, M8fyd1t, 1N
37801. T8I9phDoe:86S-379-57DO.lntsnet
WWW.rubytu8IdlIy.CUIl.

We 100 k Cor s bare net to rea cb $1.3 5. a


17% advance
over the prior year's re.suit. 1hLs is assumJng
that flat to modestly
positive
oomp-store
sales
were
achieved in the flna1 quarter
of fiscal 2003.
We believe ean1ings of $1.60 are ach1evable in flscaJ 2004_
Growth
opponmitles
should
come
from new-market expansion.
We expect
Ruby Tuesday to open about 50 companyowned units annually, most with Its stralegiC manager-partner
concept in place.
The company will also look to add more
qualified franch1se partners to run Its
restaurants
in noncore U.S. marltets and
overseas.
This year,
some 25-30 franchIsed units willllkely open.
Due
to strong price and earnings
momentum,
Ruby Tuesday shares are
ranked
to outperfonn
the broader

: ~_~DMle:sP~~1.10r.,~_~~e~r;.d;2~J~j~".:'~~";'~
;7.::~~~r~:;s
s~::

=d~5~

= :: :: :::: :~

une

.ftdar

... .31 Jun.30 Sep.30Dec.31 ::

f7.=-+"='--===-~=--=-=+-'=--1
1999 .023
.
,023
.05
2DOO .023

34.4

to5
lG.0%

...

r.;;;;;;~~;;---;;:::;-,:::':-;;:7-;:;;c;-;:;-;;;1 store sales in the February


ANNUAL RAlES Pal
Put Est'd 'OO-'1IZ Comparable-store
receJpts grew
~'=:~~I
11Tn...
5~
tD:,"S: likely due to the effects or the

.r:

1
.19 1100
15.00 llIlIIIIon,
II
181
I1.S ~~~ ~_
A'II...'"IPIE....
.84
.93
:;; ....
_.
R_
PIER40
.3%.2'4
Ay; AnnUiv'd Y"IIkI

--

__..

3141GJ

32.7
15.7
10.3
302
88.9
36.4

9.3
37.7
&4.4
27.9
152.6.15

Inventory

..
--

19.4
25.0
29.1
36.5
46.5
592
75.8
Aa
105 NItProllfSnln
115
1--'-+---...::+-....:.:.t-d<iM.~h.':O!+.E.if--hi~~~~h;;~...s;;..r.==>~;t---+~o--l
.

.. 32.81 35.51 35.41 36.21 36.0% 35.81 3521 25.0% 25.0% InclnI Tu Ita.
35.05

CommonStock 64,005,028 shs.


IIARKETCAP: $1.1 billon (1II1dC.p)
CURRENTPOSrrlON
2001
20112

.
--

2OQ3

--

.023

.05

.023

lease agreement. Despite these negatives,


the overall cost picture has improved.
thanks to stable food costs and greater operating effldencles. We expect margins to
continue to widen over the next several
years.

since our March report. on positive investor


sentiment.
Price-appreciation
potential over the
puU to ZOO6-2008 is less exciting.
though ~tiU respectable.
J
13
warren ,harpe

CA)Fiscal year ends th. tnI: Tues. iIItII" Mol)' Exd. nornaJr. charges: '96, 32; '00, 15: '02, July. Appml. diY'dPIIymen!:datBI: Feb. 1, Aug. Compam Flnandllal"Mlgtb
30, stilrting '01; priJr years ended on Sun. or 27;' Next egs. dIM early ~. (Cllnlialdivd 1. (0) Ind. intangibl8l. In "02: 17.8 m",
Stoclr's Prtce stGIlIy
Sat Ind. tanchise iKDnB. (8) PMwy &gI. ded. 1198. Divds pan SB'ri-iJ:nnuilly. Nex1 12" . (E) In mil., 8dj. ftr' splils. (F) Ind.
Prtce GftlwUI,.rwIlItHcI
t!llough'96; dilutBd
dEr. "96 datil is pro briia. div'd~. II e.ly July. NmlI: ex diIte in 11m Amer. c.Ie andTII'. to _It da'l!l,11lZ1/00.
_eunlnvs Prdctal:lllitJ
Cl ZIII], VBIe lile ~
IJIc. AI..-s
raema. fll1l81l111leU h otlliled fJOIl'I ~
IIIIil!IelIICI be rdiIUe _ is JR'II*llI
...-ie5 CIl any UJd.

,
lHl JlUlU5aR tS MJrRSf'ONsmrl"OtINrf ERRORSOR OMISS1ONSHERC".ThiI~iI'd"EiIJ_
5IIbscliI:w's-. nanc::a_
n",_.
,",pall
I
I
I '.
,II.
al I..,. lie ItJIIlImII. moIIL *"d II ......
pi'Md. ~
II _
-.
III151d b ~
.. MU*Ig If1J II'iIed II tectuIic ~
send tw ~

il..,

2003
B++
70

9S
100
II' ,

Ir

RUSSELL CORP. NYSERML


3 t..f~,rnsm.
3 ... ,m."
3 '''''.''13

11MEUNES5
SAfEll
TECHNiCAl

High:

Low:

(+100ttl

l'l

Ann'I Tatal
Relum

i'"
7%

32.'
24.0

oed~

"'1111

o 1 000 0 1 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
003
003 3 0 0

lnatilutional Decisions
67

67

"

Current AssIrts
Acta P8yable
Debt Due

Other

'2

30.'

....

6ii[f

39.3

".0
168.7

Tarv-t Price Ran.


2006
2007 2008

..

110'

.0
31

,.,I'"\'

,
"
'I,

_.- ~--

"
20
16

12

;<';

H,:

....

5.9

148.9

166.1

360.'

306.7

45.5

550.8
71.3
12.3
82.1
165.7

41.0
573.3
61.5

26 .

64.5

..... ..........
'~ """
... TOT. REll.JRI

...

II

"""""'
traded

19.9
'4.9

19.5
13.1

~;

50

198.6
406.4

20.8
11.0

22.'
12.1

,~ ,..
.
.

.....

I~(UFO)
00",

25.1
12.1

...

Ra(;Qivables

25.0

:....
f

19160 19391 19531


1992
~993
1994
1995
1989
1991
1987
1988
1990
17.02
17.61
18.83 2203
23.04 '[1.01 29.n
12.29
13.16
2.78
3.-49
3.+1
3.68
3.15
1.85
2.16
2.72
2.97
1.99
1.96
1.57
1.65
1.38
1.19
138
1.17
1.36
.34
.42
28
.32
.32
.39
.19
13
2.67
2.08
.97
1.95
1.97
2.81
211
U4
2.94
13.91
15.84 16.34
9.95 1129
12.39
1454
1.16
8.55
40.41 39.
40.41 40.'7
39.05 40.36 40."
38."
13,
17.
17.0
1. 9
14.1
113
14.7
18.7
20'
1.04
1.19
1.03
1.00
.96
1.36
.91
.94
1.09
1.0%
13%
1.310
12%
1.3%
1.47. 1.11\
1.5'
1.1"
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE u of ,,'''''
930.8 1096> 1152.6
Total Debt $2T1.3 mil. Due In 5 Yrs $32.3 mi.
21.3% 19.4\ 15."
LT
Interest
$23.9
mil.
LTDebt$265.0ml.
67.0
68.
662
(Ll IIIhQst earned: 3.7.11::total irIl&rest tnYmage:
72.9
78.8
54.1
3.s:.:)
(36% !lCap'l)
36.8" 382\
38.3'
Lases, UncapitlBnd AnnUli rentals $7.4 miL
P.nalon AsMb 121D2$94.8 mil Obit- $15'2.0
7.8%
72%
'.11\
mill.
218.0
310.3 438.1
163.3 1+12
281.9
Pfd StOClt None
581.1
628.1
632.6
111'4
10.1"
7.1''11
Common Stock 32,186,4131hs..
12.4% 12.%
8.6%
IIARKET CAP: aso million (Slnilll C.pJ
5.6"
9.7"
CURRENT POSrrlON
11<103
200'
22%
21%
35%

Ca,!,\"~

33.9
18.0

54

-'111,1 r',II' .. 11'''110,

IIIII

;:;,

47

38.5

33.8
23.1

ildcM!s fem:SGJ

..."".
...:1::- "'., -.. "'"'.. .'...... .
JJASONDJF

31.3
22.0

-e.m , __ p 1h
R.-M Price Slrtrlgll

.. "

"

PROJE~NS

PrIce
Gain
40
25
f+25%
Insider Decisions

38.9
26.0

.
RElATr.'E 0 75 DIV'D
19851:
YID 0.8%

RAm 12 4(t1li~1l.4)
M1dil'l: 15.0 PHAro.

LEGENDS
_
1.D I

BETA .75 f1.0Ih MaIteIj

200H8

40.'
27.8

cElIT

PRICE

'.~

5~.

em

8
6

-16.0
-0.1

-20.6

7.7

C VALUE UtE PUB.. IIC. US


1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001 2002 2003
2004
36.11
37.75
3US 5_ .... 111A
32.70 33.68 33.22 34.81 38.17
J6.27
<170
2.86
4.04
3.53
3.30
3.62
3.66
2.68
115
3.15 Cash Flow" pw sh
~05
1.45 1.15
2.11
1.48
1.18
1.62
1.90
1.13
1.15 Elminl!'. III A III
U5
.53
.16
.11
,II DiY'dl Ded'd pw III C.
.SO
.56
.56
.56
.48
.11
2.00
1.63
.88
l.Z5
J.J4 Cap'l $pInding pi!' It!
3.00
2.05
1.86
1.53
1.05
14.52
17.81 1828
11.31
16.74
16.49
14.19
lU. 17.1.. Boot; Vikle pII' It! D
21SS
J1.
38.05 36...
4D
swtll'll'"
'L51
Jl."
'5."
21.0
11.4
11.3
Avg AIIn' PIE Rrio
12.5
13.6
225
9.0
14.1
t,t7
.62
.85
1.11
.85
RtlI1InPIERdo
.15
.75
1.0%
AlII Ann" th"d Y"1IkI
1.11\
1.11\
2.1%
3.0%
3.3%
2.8%
.511
12442 12281 l1Bl1.1 11422 1211.6 1160.9 1164..3
lUG
1Z75
'415
182% 15.71. 18.0' 16.7" 15.4' 11.610 12.71.
13.511
110"
4U Dopncl_I/ItIII)
7tA
7....
63.9
54.7
49.3
72.2
fl,'
54,0
48.9
81.6
54.4
42.7
55.0
62.1
10.0 NIt Pttllllllm~1
710
36'
37.0% 38.4% 41.31 lB.4'4 36.7'4
37.2%
37.0% '7.0% Incane 1u RaIl
""6%
4.0%
4.8%
5.1%
~711 NIl Prolt lilli11%
4.4'
6.6'
3.6'
3.'"
385.1
412.6
501.4 435.8 460.0 411.4
4J5
401.8
100
'90 W..... , CIp'lllniIJ
~
265.0
255.9
366.6 323 .
In.9
3842
310.9
210
Z50 Lon"T ... _
.50
EqulIY , .... i
619.8
665.6 614.8 549.3
525.9
461.3
515
4542
570
715
8.3'1.
9.9'1.
65%
5.8'1.
7.3%
85%
~0lI
~51I
Rtlum an lobi Cap'
6.1"
82%
10.0% 11BI
8.0% 10.0% 10.5% 10.5% R..... "'SIr.E .....
6.~
12.0"
10.0"
52%
RnaiMd to Con Eq
9.2%
3.6"
6.6"
8.4'
4.8'
'.9%
'.0lI
24%
36%
11%
lOll
48%
35%
29%
40%
III AI Dlv'dllD PHI Prof
11\
is a branded-apparet desigl18l", II'IInufav
8102; SU A1hl&li::,1f03. '02 delJl'. rate: 4.~". HaJ 13,915 ~Is.,

,.,.

.......
"'" ....
-..:
..

..

- Sola' .... )

.... ,3./1".,...

,7.0"

~'"

15"
1.5" '''''

BUSINESS: R:~I Corp.


tURl", and inlernlllionaJmift_
of casllillwU',
dllBtic unianns,
.00 oIll!!11" lIPpnI products About 90" rJ !laB iIf8 pnnents f~
reaBiIIi::ln and sports ectNilies, D::luding .,...1:iII vnbms lor 15
M.pr Leagllli bUeb .. turns.
tnnas: RusMI AI,.,ic, JER
lEES, AIosIiiy 0lII\, 00cu&, Cross CrNl Acq. Movng Comb1,

ear.

SIt,:

9,000 slkhth.
Russel Foundatbn controtli 51" of common met:
FMR, 6.2%; BardiJys, 5.B%; Dm.nsDnaI,
5.1%.; lS.anItli'8clors,
23%; (3m Proxy). Ctnnn & CEO: J. F. WE. Pres.:. J. R. llltzil!!ll".
I~: H.. Add.: Suill 800, 3330 ~nd
BMI., Atlantl, GA.
30339. Tel: 678-742-8000. Intemel: www.n.melk:orp.com.

Russell's ean'l.ings were on plan as it manufacturing costs by shiftlng the sourcmoved


into
ZOO3. DespIte an un- tng of 100% of tts yarn requirements and
Put
Est'd '00-'02
ANNUAl RATES PAt
prepossessing reorder rate resulting from over 99% of its garment assembly to low"Sales
.... 0-"'1
the conswner pullback in the face of the cost overseas locales. Also, the company
e.5%
3.0%
3.'"
war and the sluggish economy. Russell also reduced. total employment from about
4.5"
"c.... _
-- -3.0%
Eeml1\tS
1.0%
-2.0%
managed to bnprove Its bottom line In the 17,000 to Jess than 14,000. almost 60%
Oivid8l'lds
2.0%
-5.0%
NMF
seasonally low March quarter. Thus, we based outsIde the U.S. In addition, Russell
Book Value
2.0%
--3.0%
7.5"
have no reason to question the achieve- recently announced the purchase of the
QUARTBlLl
S
AlfS
(SIAl'
Full
eeJ.
ment of management's guidance on fullsporting goods business of Spalding Sports
Mar.PerJun,Ptr SeD.PerDec.Pe Y....
year earnings within the wide range of Worldwide. We will factor that business
20IlII 2S2.a 2B2.5 356.9 326.2 1217
. $1.60 to $1.75 a share. Our estimate falls Into our model when the pun:hase is fInal2A1.0 253,8 351.3 314.8 1160.9
closer to the lower end, stnc.e earnings will Ized, hopefully bfi the end of this month. In
2002
215.8 253.1 387. 3lI8.4 "84.3
be hit twofold: 6rst by $0.03 or $0.04 a any case, Russe "expects the acquisItion
228. 185
<05
1220
'22
because the company has decided to to be mildly accretive to Its earnings in
235
zn 425 338 1275 share
expense stock options as called for by 2003."
~SPERSHAREAII
Ca.
Filii
FASB 123, and. second, by the company's We expect earnings i~l'Ovement.
to
.ndar r.P,r Jun,Ptr SeP.Per 0tcJ'. Yu,
adoption of a more conservative invest- moderate
to an annual 7%-8% in the
2000
.19
.22
.71
1.90 ment assumption for the assets In Jts pen- years to 211l16-2008-after the full-6EdgEd
.711
2661
1.13
.12
.15
.56
.3D
slon plan. a move that mJght pare profits effect of the restructurlng is felt next year.
.20
1.45
2002
.08
.72
.45
by as much as another $0.04 a share. As- With its more competitive posture, Russell
,22
1.15
2003
.11
.12
.50
,25
,15
,55
1.15 sumlng a more nonnal pattern of sales In- should easUy maintain Its posIUon at the
.1~
creases at the retail level ...
forefront of the actlvewear Industry where
QUARTERLTDNIJEICl5 PAIl ""
Cal
F.. '
will rise to sports apparel alone is a $39 billlon-a-year
Yur We believe that
endar 1111.31 Jun,. SeD.30 Dec,31
$1.80-$1.90 a share in 2 04-as
the full market. In addition, Russell Is pushtng
1911
.14
.14
.S6 benefits oC the company's massive restruc.14
.14
hard in the international arena. which
2660
.14
.14
.14
.14
.S6 turing efforts of the past four years fully now represents only 8% of sales. Russell
.14
A6 kick in. During that time of very costiy
2661
.14
.14
.04
shares are not now timely.
2662
.04
.04
.16
.04
.04
wrlteoffs. Russell significantly reduced its Raymond S. COWWl
May 16, 2003
2003
.04
(AI FiscaI)'8iII" I!I1ds satt.day IIIIIft!5I Jan. 1st $1.46; '01, $2.81; "2. 39. Next egs. rpl due -Oiidend I1limesment plan lIYi1ilable.
FIn.ndll SlNnIllh
B'
of blbwrlg Cillencll.- )'BiV.(BI Pri'nary umilgs
at8 Juty. (el N8xI di'd meeling gm July.
(D) Ind. iltang. In '02: $38.9 mill., $1.211sh.
StDd:'. rice stability
70
Current

Uab.

'''11

171.5

"'"

......
..""

.....

200'
200'

earnin&;

Ccnpm

t1mugh

1997, thlll diuted. Exct. IIOM!lCUrr.


bss." '93, 59;; 'OS, 51-'3; ".5138;
1lO,

GOll'I u-c!i'd.-ty

_._

Aug. Appmx.

2Oth<iF".,

di'd

par-

M." ..........

(E) In mlDns.

CI~rIl],VIIue I..ile
.
IIlc. ....
1I5B'ftlI. Fldwl ...-11 is laIRd IroIII SllUIteS ~
10be rWIR M:I Il. ptnled .. hiM ~
TH[PUBU5tRIS~S8l~R","[RRORS()ROIIISSIOtolSHE1lfW.~IS~Iw~-._~irt~UR.ara-apllrt
all .ay lit ~
I'tSIiIl" *-III..-.cI
fR*d. III!dKIIit IIIb1 ... II
b .....
11.......
111)' .....
1Ima.lIIit.........,.

i1.,

PricII Gnnrtb

~
aI

,
Mni;r

P.n .... C11

tiRl.
II"

PIadII:L

,'.

:11:

II',

RYAN'S FAMILY STEAKNDQoRYANI~r12.801~ro 11.1(=:1l}) t'~O.661~ Nil


3-1or-2

,:,
I I"

1m

3F

..

..

..

..

..

.61
1.10
18.1'
36.3
~36

..

.61
1~
18
10.8
1.39

..

.~f

1.62
1.. ~
11.3

lJl

~
.55

.68
1.93
78'6

19.'"

14.4
1.07

18.5
1.18

~23

No DefiI'led Benefit Pension Plan

Stock 42, 132,000 shs.

MARKET CAP: S550 million (Small Cap)


CURRENT POSrrK:lN.1

RtJOBMIbles
Invenlory (FIFO)
Other
Cumin!. ~
Accb PIIYll.ble
Debt Due

2002
13.3
4.8

2.7

5.1
5.9

5.1

5.0
8.7

----aT

2i'3

13.5

10.9

--

--

Other

39.5

35.7

Cuf7llnlliab.

53.0

ANNUAL RATES Put


!Jflhngl(plr~1
11Yn.

6~

rn

~
~
..

~
~
..

A1

.68
2.82

~9
~98
80.1,
16<
.96

.83
3.36

.89

In

3.11

U\I
73."
11.1
.10

18.1
1.10

..

..

1lll.15

1'-5
.82

..

..

1lU."
11.9

.80

..

..

..

1997~t

10.85 12.36 15.06


1.16
1.30 Hl3
.63
.73
.85
..
..

.14
.<1
.99
125
5.21
6.04
~.50 (.11
53.78
4ti.f!l
7U,47
68."
9.8
7.0
105
10.9
.56
...
.61
.61
8>0
.93
.55

..

..

..

Co!-

.. dat

.28

.34

.21

f."

1.73

'"

ua

7.50

B.W

fl.1

..

lIIImQII

'5hl 0lIt1t1l ..

AVIMnlPlt:Kda
R_
PIERdo
- I- "8Mn'lIY'dYlold
710
120 RMnuei ($nil) A

Bald

.68

~_

......

[000nIn'._

11.10
1.
1.70
HI
U5
fJ.6
J1DO

11.0
.15
NI
97D

.. '"

w_,

"".,

..

f."
f."

F.n
Y....

1119
2ODO NOCASHDIVIDENDS
B8NG
PAID
2003

outstanding

H' N'

..

9.OK
9.5"
9.5%

j,f

Dec.31

..

R..... uesp.l'lh A
CuhRur',..1h
EarMlg1flll'lh.
OIv'dl Dld'd pi!' III
Cop'Spondln8..-'"
1.50 BooilYllMepIl'lh

R_ ... e_ '1'"

.:10
.J7
.32
.21
IlUAR1BlI.TDMlBlOS Pili
lIar.31 Jun.30 SeD.

9.8
>0

21.05
2.15
1.25
HI

31.""

F""

2003
2ll1U

42.75
12.4

'9.25
1.15
1.15
NR

f~'"

tD ....

$l'n;,

4:1.Bl

..

Put Est'd '00-'02

15.5% 17.0%
13.5% 16.0%
11.5% 15.5%

18.10
1.92
1.11
...

((9.1
15.3%

top Une remained sluggish amid a difficult


operating environment. with same-:store
sales at the family-ortented chain declinEarnings
ing by 4.2%, including a roughly 8% drop
Divdends
-Nil
In customer traffic. Lower prices for comBook Value
11.5% 11.1'% 12.OK
modUles, such as poultry, pork, seafood,
Co\- QIlAJl_TIlE'IBUS ISdl'
and lettuce, largely made up for the lack of
enclar lIar.Per Jun,Per S'D.Ptr Dec;Pe lW.r
sales leverage, however, and prevented a
_
168.3 181.0 m.8 m.s
71M.6 severe bottom-llne meltdown. Also, stock
2001 183.9 1~6
188.9 179.8 1(5.2 buybacks
bolstered Ryan's share net. The
2002 193.6 201.0 19(.1 185.1 m.8
company
bought
back 697,(X)()shares in
2013 193.2 2lIU
200
f91
710
the perioo. for $7.1 mUllan. and it has allo201M 20f
2f(
207
f90
IZO
cated another $15 m1illon to 520 mUUon
CaJ..
EARNINGS PER SHARE A.
Full
for repurchases for the remainder of 2003.
andar l.r.P,r Jun.Ptr SeD.Par DK.Ptl
Y....
Since Ryan's initiated Its share-repurchase
_
.f9
.2(
.21
.21
.85
program in 1996, it has bought back more
2001
.23
:0 .25 .20
.85 than 42 million shares. or 52%, of Its then2D02
.29
.34
.26
.23 D1.11
Re.......ues
"CBSh Flow"

16.26
1.68
.95

1.13
6.91

5131 "".5
6992 637.0
664.1 704.6 1~.2 m.8
14.81
15.9%
1(.6% 14.81 15.1' 1UI 15.0"
15.0'l
15.0"
".all
29.(
31.6
182
21.~ 24.5
21.6
28.3
3~0
20.8
262
310 31' '_llooml
40.,
(1).1
41.6
<>0
50A
265
30.5
332
37.0
39.2
~O
....
.... No! ""'II " .. I"
010
mil
h,*,,'-htf;;H-~~I-.i~-hiT.+;IT,H-..c,iO'--If-.i'*t-."";+"'~----.i';'t-.fiiii+.:=""'~~----1----..'ti7-1
362% 36.0% 362% 31.""
37.0" :16.(% 37.2' 36.9% 35.8% 36.0% 31.31
JtO% InCUH Tu ItItI
6.0% 6.5"
1.2% 8.8% 6.51
6.51
6.5% 6.31 6.1% 6.0%
U~ U~...""'"'._
ltl\
1175.4 d90.8 d1022 d64.7
<125.1
d31.7
d~8 d111.6
.2.. lDiJ.'
Cop' llooill '20'
"".8
200
1l1li
longr...
_
~
201
..
.. 910
1n.4
178.0
2O~0
83.0
8U
'820
US
171 Sin.
of7D
238.1 269.4
302.1 294.0 317.1 280.( 293.( 282.4 316.8 320.5
10.3'1.
10.5'1.
12.0%
11.3%
10.0'1. 10.31 12."
10.0'1e 10,3"
10.0% 1G.D% Rnm CIITDlIIelp'
fUIi
1UI'
12.0%
14.9%
14.21
15.7%
11.3% 11.0% 12.61 12.4% 1UI 14.71
...'" ft'"
S1w.
15.7%
11.310
11.0%
12.S1 12.4% 14.410 14.7' 14.9% 141'
12.0"
, ...."'
, ....0% RNiMd to Con Eq
13.0%
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
4121Q3
.AI DttdllD Nit PraI
17.9 f-;;,=~=;;::':=:c:::'';::-;=;'-;-:=:::'--;=-=-==':;::''-----'--;;=;:--'::=","=~-':;;=+==='----;=7'=---1
BU$WE$S: Ryan's FMJiy steal Houses, Ioc. crpinIes single- 10,400 shinholders.. AI otrEllll'S '" d~
own ".8% d a:mTDn
5.0 IXlncepi restaurant chain COfIIBlOg cA 326 cornpany-operated ll.nd stDck; PriYRi Capital Wanagsnerrl, 15.4%: DiT'llnSiOnaI Fund Ad5.5 21 hnchised RlSlalQ1lts b:3JIBd pMcipaly in the soutlMni II'ld vistn, 5.5% (:w3 Prm:y). Chairman, PrMkierrI, Ind CEO: Char1as
5.8
D. WIY (owns 1.3% ct a:NT'II'IOII). Inc.: Soul:h C8ItlIina. Addmss:
341 mi:twMtem Unled Stns. Reslall'ln1s fBll.hn caf8hlria.ltylll eMy',
40S Lancastrlr Avenue (29650). P.O. Be 100, GnMw, South c.o13.8 -Stealls, BufJut & BakWY,R and M! lBaSOnably Pf1;wd. PlymIIlnd
benefils: 31..2%or '02 sam. Has about 21,200 employu8S Ind
Iina 29652. TIIIBphone: 864-819-1000.1nWn8t
WWWJYIIlSinc.carn.
_.
38.3
Ryan's
Family
Steak
Houses'
firsta
new
"loo.ge"
look.
1be
rompany
also in52.1
quarter results were a mixed bag. The tends to step up its advertising efforts at
396.(

..

Pfd Stock NOl'II!l

Ca~~

~
n
..

as of 4I2.IlI3
Dualn 5 YB $180.0ml.
IT ln1aran $10.0 mJ.
9.51)
(39% of Cap1)

lauu, Uncapl1aliad Annual rentals $12

Cammon

IlU.Ul

..

..

CAPrrAl STRUCTURE
latal Debt $212.0 mi.
IT Debt $212.0 mil.
(Tatall'l8es1 coverage:

stock.

New sales initiatives hold promise.


though it will probably be at least a few
more quarters before romps reenter posltlve territory. As part of its remodeling
program, which has mainly involved ootfitting restaurants
with an Innovative
d1splay-<:ooklng format, Ryan's now plans
to make aver the exterior of Us units with

the local level. and to change the name of


some of Its units from Ryan's Famlly
Steak. House to Fire Mountain. In oroer to
attract a broader cUstomCl"base. Mea.nwhile. still-favorable conunodlty prices and
a greater emphasis on the company's operaUng partner
program,
which
gives
r~taurant
managers an opportunity to
share in the profltabUlty of their stores,
should buoy margins going forward.
Unit development will likely support
growth over the long haul. The compa.ny is on track. to open 12 to 13 new
restaurants
in 2003, which would be in
keeping with the low slngledlglt expanslon rate It's maintained in recent years. It
also plans to relocate several underperforming units to higher-traffic sites.
Ryan's shares are not especially appealing as either a short- or long-teno
holding. in our opinion. We advise Investors to remain
on the sidelines untiJ
visibility improves and the company's
latest sales initiatives have had more time
to take hold.
Justin Hellman
June 13. 2003

{AJ F"1lICI1ymII"ends on the W.:lnllS1ay 'b ..... : Ijon I!I'rl!f898 - __


OIJts1andingprior to "ffl. &-c 1101 2002 quartsly ,t.e 1181: de.
to DfIa!IT1bef 31st. Revenues incUde bnchi:se cIlJdes IICIrInlQR]'iIg (bssesl: 112, (SO.011; '96, to rounding.
lees, bd: exdudeint8r1tsI .nd dhlIr iname.
lSO.17). Had 8ilfT1ings leporl: due rNd-July.
(81 EamiIgs bilS!d on diluild sli2es; bald
elln rnlixls, iKI,us1Bdfer nxt spit.

no!: add due

Flnandat Sb-.lIgth
~nc.stablltty
Prtc. GnnrItl """nca
EarnIngs PrecltctablltJ
ComPlnO

Stock',

II ZlIIJ. VIlle I..iIe Nli5IIN .. AI ..-s 1ISaJId. T8l%YII1IIII!riII is olllIinetI fIurII ~


biIIIilMd III be fIIiItjc IIIl if. prwiIIed oabI:U. .~
III .., U:11:L_
TH[ PU9I..ISHf'R IS NOTR[~SBU
1 ORNn rRRORS OR OIoI.SSlOffsH~.
11m ~
if. *dJ' ... Ul!ilabt's a.I, nonoCClllVM"tilL
imrnII u-. No JW1

III t .., R Il'(IIIdIad. rNIIL"


IJ' IIrImMIId illIl)' p-.s. ...
oIltl .....
lIII!lI ill ~
.. ~..,
prllltd 1I"1lI'ic
fdIblir.m. wID. prDllud.

In:.

II'

"

: I I:

8+
80
40
100
I I' ,

SCHOlASTIC
CORP.I NDQSCHL
4

T.IllN[SS

LlJIe'e:lV'Zl.'JJ

3 NNlllZ9195

SAFETY

BETA

.85

(I'OO ...

fB~r27.11
12.9
f6.; I

LEGENDS
11.0 I"'CIVl
RetI~ PrEe
2~~lm

-....

5 '--'!II ~

TECHNiCAl

High;
law:

30 44i1P~
REL\Tl'/E 083
f IRAIll 13 , 8(T"'1,15.1)

P~ RAIll.

IIRECENI
PIIICf

n.p
SlRngf1

26.3
16.9

39.1
23.9

39..4
29.5

T.I Debt $680.0 mil. Due in 5 lIS $680.0 mi.


LT DeblS494.8rnl.
LT Interat $25.0 mi.
(Total inwestCOWlage: 5. b)
(40" of Cap',
leas .. , Uncapitalb!:ed Annual renlals $43.-4 nil.
Pension liabiity $2-4.3 mil in '02 YS $$10.4 mil.
il'01
PId Siodl None
Cammon Stock 39,223,400 shares
lndudes 1,656,200 shlln!S of Class A vuling stoct:
(100% owned by mana98"'fllll. c
as CIf!i31tQ3

IlARKET CAP: 112 biDian (Mid cap)


21101

ZD02

212M13

(11114

Curntn1
Assets
AI;;m

Payable

DIlbtDLHl
Other

50.7
34.1

56.8
33.1

TargetPric.Range

39.1
22.7

2006

2007

2008

96
SO

./

26~:~
4442
196.0
915.4
146.7

II,

r--::JT,' "",'Ih

'd'

T,j'

19~

20..

20.3

1.12

1.34

1.36

552.3

631.6

149.9

"0%
17.0

125"
21.7

125"
2. 0

231 -NMF
US
NMF

.928.8
IH"
ID

25.8

20.9

15.8

17.0

18.2

1.34

1.19
.-

1.03

.87

.97
.-

-.!' __
...

.~
~

966..3

1058.4

1154.7

1402.5

1962.3

1917.0

1910

7.9'4
5U

13.1"
6U

15.0%

12.8"
71..

' . 5"
111.2

,..,,,
66.6

I''''

A'll AI,,'I PIE "do

!l.'

R*tiv. PIERdo
A,vgAnnUIv'dY"1IkI

UO
IIi

2110 s.Ia(W)
fUll
I ..

2SIO

Iiualn

It",
fI5
1CD

0"';;;"
DoprocI_llml)

72!l
....
28.1
32.9 38.6 46.&
.4
23.6 36.8
56.8
80.7
98.7
75.G
100 NI1ProtlWI
4O.0~ 37.5" 38.0" 34.1" 6O.0~ 38.1~ 37.5~ 30.1\
38.81 35.6% 35.5% 113 McaMTuRD
5.11. 5,l1J1i 5.1'
5.0\
.0%
U'
3.~
4.1'
4.11
5."
1'"
... " NIIProetlbmin
61.t
1000J 136.8
177.1
215.7
201.0
222..
253.9
394.6
<168.1
0>6
510 W
Cop'II"'1I)
3.3

153.5
'8.31
18.31
1B.3%

39.6

91.5

186.8

287.9

243.5

248.0

2.1.1

565.3

525.8

...

205.8 2501
13.9'
12.1'
16.0' 15.4%

268.7

291.5

318.1 361.4
!!I.B" 7.6%
lA'
1D.2'

430.0

493.1

718.9

9.8%
13.2%
13.2'10

9.4%
16.3%
16.3%

9.2%
13.7"
13.7"

'30
15"

'D.91
161\
16.0'11. 15.4'11. 16.2%

....
u_

48.5
21.B

128

JI,I

(FIFO)

32.1
19.5

VI

, po'

~:~
~~

28.5
14.4

~':.iJlbeI!oJ,~n.aI

..ut)

CURRENTPOSrrlON

33.4
10.4

Nil

DIV'D
YlD

di.dlJ

1.4"
."
.,,,

-.

1.4\

10.2%

BUSINESS: SdJolasti:

~~
340.3
194.7
769.5
157.3

2,lg:~
359.5
1&4.3
798.3
134.3

Corp. PUblishes. and disWibules ch'ilclnm'l


books, clilS!rnOlll magazines, and mulinedlil. services. Sels di'edI)' to childntn and hlachln il eI8mIIntary and secondll)' IChoaIs
Ihrough Ehool book clubs, book fan and IitI'.-y salllls. Has opsalions il U.S. 8nd 14 foreign countria 2002 Ii1IeI, 0Plll". proit by

23.3
194.3
374.9

23.5
185.2
:;-:: ..
172.~
195.~ Il"" .;....
330.2
"""52f.3
Harry

:!_=:,. ;.c::_=,:.:.:.:p.:,,::

.:.:6:.:'''~,n:.:.:,,:.:,

.,

. ~
.. ~
Hi

...

LonoT

n~
5,",

...

-11niI1

'"

925 Shr. &uitvlSml\


RftKn on TDUIICap'
11,0% Rn.n on Shr. E~rtv

1115
1.5%
9,",

1J1~ RlilinedtaCamEq
HI AI DlY'd. to Net Prof

9.5%
Nil

1.0"

21%; lntem'l 16". 8%: Media, L.i::., MY., 7%, -6%. Aafd GIOIillr,
6100. Has 7,200 lill-tme empl, 3,.400 pit RDbr'tson
awns al
Class It. .afBS and 15.8'" of amn.; .. a1h1l'" a1f. & di". own 5.B%
r1I cornTI.; Mass. Fill' Sfn'., 10.4'" (8102 prmy). CIITm., fIrM.,

Jam.,

1100 CEO: RIChard RobinDI. Inc.: DE. Addr.: S55 Broadway.

E:::d::uca::
..::D.::laI:..:,:p,::'
.. c;16::%::.
. .....::N:.:Y,:'::OO::':::',:T:::ele::..:.;'

NY,

-~~-1

2::1::2""""'7==""::.:.:'~III&::'::""::..:.-~""""=~""~

in the third
quaner because of the slow
holiday shopping season. And intemation11Tn.
the al sales remain flat as concern over ter8.0% 12.0% 4.,",
best-sellIng chlldren's series is planning
rorlsm affects sales in some promising
Eamilgs
16.0%
~:
an initial production IUn of 8.5 mllllon
markets.
However,
DiYi:lentls
-_
19.5%
. ,.,
books of HafT)' Potter and the Order of the The company
is seeing
decent
perBot*.YilkJe
11.0%
11.5%
15.0%
Phoenix.
This will be the
largest first fonnance
results
In the educational
F10ad
QIIARTDLT
SAlfS II Ilil.I A
Pol
printing In U.S. history and will join the pUblishing
and
school
book
Jair
Aug.3' Nav.31 Feb.2a .., 31 F~=I 80 mUllan
Harry books in circulation.
We businesses.
The Read 180 remedial pro2DOO 'B2.5
511.3
315.D 393.7 'tD25
expect that the IIfth title will generate up- gram Is se1llng fairly well even though
2D01 362.1 668.3 433.0 498.9 1962.3 wards of $125 million In revenue in flscal
state budget pressures will likely reduce
2002 306.1 637.2 432.7 541.0 1917.0 2004
(year starts June 1st), as weU as the ability of schools to purchase library
2003 306.9 660.3 433.7 55U 1HO stimulate
sales of the four back-listed
books and other materials. And sales at
335
710 4111 515 2120 titles. PubUdty
is already mounting fOT school book airs Increased In the third
fiscal
EARtalGSPERSHARf AlE
Ful the June 21st release.
quarter by 8% over the previous year's peAII(IJ1 Nov.30 Ftb.21Illy "
~
Scholastic's
future
penormance
riod.
2000 d.n
1.30
.06
.87
1.51 should also get a boost from a new These undmely shares JDay attract in21101
d.31
1.48
.10
.93
224
strategic plan. After a disappointing
vestors who find the prospect of 80ZIlIZ
d.!IO
1.69
.31
1.28
2.51 third
quarter.
management
announced
other hit Potter book
appealing. In ad2IG3 d1.11
1.85 d.O'
1.11
1.15 that it will take steps to revitalize core dJtion, management's
commitment of a
2DCM475 1.70 .zo U5
2.40 business operations (including the falternew corporate strategy to increase cash
C&J..
QUARTERLYOIVI)ENDSPAIJ
Full
ing school book clubs), and increase free flow and improve business operations will
endar liar.!' Jlln.30
Dee"1 y.., cash flow and share-net earnings. Managelikely be well received.. Despite execution
1.
ment indJcated that it would deliver a risks facing the company as it rolls out Its
2ODO NO CASH DMDENDS
completed plan of action in mid-July.
new strategy. we project above-average re~
2011
BBNG
PAID
The uncertain
economy
~d
global
turns, at the issue's current price, for the
2DD2
political situation
are hurting
sales.
3- to 5-year pull.
2103
Trade revenues came in lower than expect
Terese S. Fabian
May 23. 2003
(AI F"1Eaf yo.- ends May 31st. (BI PtiI*J {~J. 811:lJd'es cMge ntIatI!d to iIcIoption of ng board nantMr.l
and exlll'"Ci18
ath
~
F"'ncilr Strtngth
B
EPS tIwough 1997. Dilrtlld thefUft8r. ExckJdes SOP 00-2: '02, 15. N8ll1earnings ntport dlJll YDting "::Ihts. (D) In mIIions, adjusted b spk
SIocrs tine. Stabilily
65
nom!CU11ng gains (baes): '96, (4~); 'D7, mG-SeP- eCI CIIss B shares eI8d ill: 1Bas1 (El Quart. egs. may not ~d dLHlto dJang8s i1 Pib Growth PMsIsIMcI
50
Curntntliab.

ANNUALRATES
afd8lgl(J*-"J
~
FloW'

Put

Potter

promises

to

his

cast

ed

Pul
Est'dW.'02 magic speD on Scholastic
Corporation
$Tn.
once again. The U.S. publisher of

to".

19:~~

.r:
l:

s~:;
..

8'

(2,); '00 (15t!); '01, ($123k '02, 4,; '03, 1Q, ane-fillh 01' board; Class A shar8S el&ctnrnail-

var

CI 2l1l3.
liJe I'Id5MIL Int. AI ~
re5II'MI. fadllll ......
q; ..
THrPUlUSK"RlSfIl
Rl~SIn...[lORNftlRRORSOROMISSlONSHrR[lN.
II ..,. bR IIlpIllIIQd. maIIl,," 1I"~
i11llJ ~
~'CI''''

lined ham 5It'I5 ~

~~iI."'*icfJ

to.

'CI'I:5I!lI

b ~

_In. ouIstndng. ClIused by anti:liutMt IIIIBcts.

IIlII is
~,_.nen
.. .-.;.,.
.....
lillie

fI1JIilIe' ~

'RItaIIIiI!5 III MY uIII.


..........
iJWnII .... Jioplllt
plIIIiIDIiM,.lIIU 1I pNdrZ1

.-.n:

_EamlltP
I

PrHidabWttJ
'..

20
: II:

II

A. SCHULMAN INC. NDQSHlM


I
3 ""'" ,,11lIl!
3 NN'1I2UIII
3 .....""'"

THEUIIBS
SAFETY

TECHNICAL
20541

.,.."'-..,
...,

spII
]-lor-Z~
5-101-4,p1

32.8

11.3

26.3

26.'

19.5

2tl.5
13.4

18.0

22.8

16.9

13.0

m
1111 ,I 'LIII,

4/94

~s

II

rrcrssUI

III" II

/II.
II

,"

14.7

'.0

19.4

24.8
13.0

Target Price Ran.


2006 2007 2008

12.9

.... - --_ ..
--_ .. ... --

II"

'hI.

.JII~, - ..-- .-

"-

"I'

lD

i,:~

,0 0 0 0 0

~;

000
1 1 0 000
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .\.':
IrwtKuticnal Decisions

"'.,eo

:..~, 232:g

.~.

....,
eo

12

Percent

52

53
22...

23046
I I
~ll
~ 1996 1997
1992
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994 1995
11j9
15.87
19.83 19.1.
18.32
19.99 27.13 25.83 21.5ll
12.31
16.57
1.>1
1.58
.11
.95
1.05
1.24
1.41
1.43
1.54
U9
'.59
,95
1.18
.13
.82
1.07
1.04
1.19
1.43
1.31
.2
1.12
,13
,41
,14
.19
.09
22
25
29
.33
.38
.1'
,49
,30
,41
.43
,49
.66
,49
.31
.69
1.59
.1.
3,83
6,27
B.26
921
1U3 10,B3
3.31
04.39
10.15
1."
31.09
37,46 37.60
31., 3613
31,61 37.61 31.66 31.1
31.39
36."
20.1
21.0
13.6
12.3
12.6
224
19.
15.9
13,'
20,'
,91
1.02
1.00
1.05
122
1.32
1.38
.92
.95
1.33
1.28
1>%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1% 12%
1.1%
1.3%
12%
1.3%
.3%
12%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 212M13
685.1 148. 1027.'
916.7 996.'
Total Debt $92.5 mil.
DR In 5 Yrs $.5 m"
9,0% 10.3%
10.3' 10.6" 10.2%
LT o.bI $92.0 ITllIl
LT Inte.-st; S5.8miIL
14.7
14.7
16.3
18.1
11.8
(18%afCap'~
53.6
50.1
422
".6
38'
lases, UllClpltallRd Annuall8ntatl $5.1 mil
31.7'1. 36.11 40.3' 40.6% 41.2'
Pen.IOIl Asub-121D2 $7.7 mil. ObDIiiI.$50.1 mil
6.0%
4.3"4
',1%
'.2%
231.3 291.0 363,0 36M 292.0
PM S10ck $1.1 mill.
PM Dlv'd S.OS mi.
,>0
23,1
10.2
7>.1
40,1
10,689 shs. 5% cum. ($100 par)
2942
345. 405.2 433,1 393,4

I
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
29.85 31.66 352D 33.38 32.81
Jll0
121
1.10
2.10
2.20
2.02
1.86
,43
1.10
1AB
1.51
1.08
12'
,55
,49
,51
.51
.51
.4>
,15
U4
.83
1.13
1.11
.1
10.97 11.41
10.99
10.99 12,06 12.55
...50
JJ.2B
31.13 29,33
2921
".46
28,0
15..4
14.9
11.7
11.3
,11
,73
.61
1.43
2,0%
3,8%
2.8%
4.5ft
3.2%

,"

.,

993,4
10.2'
11.8
>2.2
39,6%
'.2%
280.3

,,,..

ReOBiYBbles

(A'9""l

1_
00.,
Cumlnl~

Yeo'

''''''

2IIlIlI
2001

2002
2003

..Y.. ,
f ...

lOGO
2001

175.8
155.9
21.1

172.3
169.7

38 .5

419.3
71.1

46.8
118.3

100.3
Put

131.4

......
3,'"

5%
0.5%
7.0%

..""

18.2
.5
>2.1

Est'd '00-'02

''''

1.5%
11.5%

196.7
17.0
471.4

0.'

3>.,
Post
"Tn.
8.""
2.0%

63.2
'''.5

13.3

58.'

ANNUAL RATES
of ....
(po<~'
SHIes
''Cash Aow'"
Eamil,gs
DividBnds
Book Value
f",",

64,0

6.5"
10.0%

2.5"
1,,",

7.5"
0.5"

QUARTBlLT
SA:!'.)"
N".30 F'b.D
1
m.7 248,1 275,3
256.6 Z3lI,9 252.6
238.1 213,6 259,6
266,9 268,2 21'"
fl. f10
21.

,,f.'

AIIIIJI
235,4
227,1
255,3
210
27'

Yeo,
1032.5
975,2
966,6

IOf.

.".30

,38

FoIL2lI """

,32

f.'

AIIII.31

,32

,23

,22
.19
,38
,39
,30
2003
J7
.JQ
.3'
.3'
QUARTERlYDNIlENDS PAlOC
CeIIIIIdar Ibr,31 Jun.30 S.p.30 Dee.31
,115
,125
,125
ll!19
.125
,135
,135
,135
2IIlIlI
.135
,135
,135
,135
2001
.135
,135
2002 .135
.135
.135
,135
,135
2003
F""" ,.,.."'"
A,., 31 " .. _,
d,03
,18
,28

2002

.05
,15
,15

.2,

1"1
B DiJled

e.nings. Weighled I\'g. unllil '97.


EaKle. nonrecurmg (bseI): "98, 16).
Ned eamilgs repmt due 8iII'ty Jul)'.

v.w .... ~~

CI2IJ,
THl~RISNOIRl
~ I , lie 1IpIldlIzd.1tSti1."

--.

23%

3.7%

2112
83.'
323.5

nl'lSllil!sl".:IJ

12.9'4
9.0%

33%

3lI%

31%

1'.81
13.4'
9.0'

33%

10.0%
11.7%
6.7%

43%

Although Schulman's fiscal 2003 sales


tally will likely rise at least 10%. share
net is liable to be flat with ZOOZ'sflgure (fiscal Y"ar5 end August 31st). Revenue was up 26% in the second fiscal
quarter due mainly to greater shipments
of lower-margin unJts, and favorable Cllrrmcy Winds from European sales (which
comprise 65% of the top line). 1bJs trend
continues in the third interim and is highIy probable in the final stanza. Share net.
though, is being adversely Impacted by
restructwing costs (see below) and falling
cat:c1ty utilization. Schulman
is conso
capacity by closing a DispersJon
plant in range, Texas, and hopes to raise
U,S. capadty use to 90% by RscaI yearend.
This figure, however, is highly dependent
upon auto production, which is on course
to fall about 10% this calendar year. The
U.S. auto market accounts for around 50%
of SHLM's domestic sales.
Schulman
has
embarked
on
a
domestic
revitalization
program.
North American profitabiUty has been <lis
mal. Reliance on the cyclical domestlc auto
market, and rising costs are the major tea-

Yeo,
1.25

,43
1.08
1.10

1.2,

Full
Y..,
,49

.54
.54
.54

sons. TIle company

(C,_ d_

.......

"'1

Is redudng

...., ...~, Goo>

56.0"

1.3%
289,3
10>.
322.1

priIml............... ..~

its rnanu-

3.7%

3.9"
N'I'
NMI'

8.8%

22B
322
"2%
3,3%

1115

U"
u.s

"~Ann'
PIE Raio
R~PIERda

AvgAnn' (h'd Yi-'d

'000

301.0
f1to

3$,4
7.9'4

310
1,""

J20 W_.

..8 ""'gT ..
300

1.00

1.3"
1210
'0,""

:10..
50,0

,..""

R.s.
,."" ncon.lu
.......
11-

."" .."
318
00,0

,.,0 Dopna_IInK,
37.0 Not""'1I'1nK1

11.0
40,""

Salnl$nlill)

."" OooninoM_

...

Cop'1
(inK)
_ (\nIII)

Sh,:_'lnKi'
onTDlII c.p,
lO" RftlnI
..... .., ... "..itv

4,1"
:150
120
4JO

~""

..

MIll if ~....,

III)'

JIIiItd. ~

50%

lO"

4'"
lOll

""
.""

RdainMllD

ConI Eq

45lI AlDWda .....

"""

p....

10.01

l""

reco::l

~s_,_...,,_-....

II .-..g

9.01
4.5%

facturing and delivery costs (approximately 75% of the $6.5 mllUon in annual cost
savings we envisage), and decreasing inventory Jevels by 15%, to $57 million. An
additional $5 milllon per armWD in savlngs is Hable to arise from the Dispersion
plant closure.
Profits should start growing again in
fiscal 2004. By the second ftsc:al quarter
of 2004, the results of the above belt
tllhtenlng moves will probably be paying
o . The cost structure should also benefit
from domestic tax loss carryforwards, and
the North American operation's tax. rate
should fall to the 30% range, from the current 40% level. Our estimates factor in a
sUght rebound In the overall U.S. GDP
growth rate.
This stock. has moderate
potential
to
2006-2008. This gooyielding stock has perked up since our
March report, tempering Its longer-term
potential. Schulman is a relatively small
player in a very competitive global market.
As such. ongoing stringent mst controls
comprise the bulk of our 10% average annual share-net proJectlon.
Jeremy J. Buder
June 20. 2003

(D)'" .... , .d~"" .. ""'" 'P"

diw'idIlnd mihlul)'.
Diw'idIl'ndpayment d"
on a.uund lie 5th
Of: Felnlfy, .. .,., Augusl:, and Novm1ber.
rJd~ ~
is ~
IIllIII -=t5 ..... ,1' lr ~

[QRrr[RRORSORQIIISSIONSHER[IiI.~.'IlIt:IJ
..

9,1%
6.5"

13.1"
14.2%
9.9"

...... dal:::'t

1000

EARHIIGS PERSHARr:A.

24%

31.1
... 6%

966.6

....-~
-

BUSINESS: A. Schuman Inc.. sells high-perfDl'lTlill.nce plra'Sli: resins


tal. '02 depr. nde: 5.7%. Has lbou11,785 .-npIoyaes; 755 shan!hokl8rs. Ql"IalIS'Onctq
own 2.8% of stock;
Wol
which BIB used as I1lW mQlrials in ts aJstomen' manufachR19
opIntiJns. The company also ptEMses plastit: I1lSI1s for I1ISIIJea . McDonnell & Co., 12.-4%; Sn)'del' CapitII Man., 8.1%: Dmensional
tD bmuilte j:Itlpri9tlry compounds tailored ID aJstomer lpecI"acap., 5.4%. (11102 prnxy). Chllirmi!ln & CFO: R. A. Stefanko. Pres.
& CEO: Ten)' L. Haines. Inc.: DE. Adm,: 1550 W. MIn8t st., IV.tim. A. SctJuman ads as I manufaclllnll" (65% rI'Q2 sales),III8f'
chant (16%), and distribub (19%). FOI8ign ca ... 67.7% d'~ 10- ron, OH 44333. Tel.: 33D-666-3751. IntBmel:: www.BSChuIman.aJm.

38,1

24%

12.9%

12.8%

4.8%
290,3
85.0
3$,2

21.6

975.2
5.8%
221
12.1

...

41.75
2.15
1.1,
.13
US
17,00
,",00

ea... ....,.

'00'

12.1"

9.3%

38.7"

1032.5
B,1%

_1*

12.8%
13.2'1.
10.'"

11IIlLj

9.3%

11.6%
13.2%
7.1"

40,0
366,3

985.'
10.4%
20,'
'1.8

".1

12.0
2.7
"8
' Y',
e
VAlUE
UIiE
PIJ8
IIC,
2004
JU' Sllaper Itl A
oil
2.1, 'CuII
U, EanIiIIgs pII' Ih
DiY'dso.d'd pII' III C
.t5 C"", Spondln'l* '"
'2.20 BooI<_I*'"
,",50 c;_~ Sl'Ii lJU1st'g D

Common Stock 29,-47-4,022sharas


u of 3114103.
MARKET CAP: $500 million ISmail Cap)
CURRENT POSmDN
2J2BIlI'
200'

Aods """' ...


Debt Due
0Ih0<
Cumlnt liab.

-10.8
1l1.'

' Y',

3 Y'.

..,

...."" .......
-.
::

~ TOT. RET\RIII 51m3

.. ,""'........

1m.]

"16
12

--

4D
32

;.

20
+20%
7%
Insider Decisions
J A SON
D J f

000

20.8

1m

"1:::'"

I:GaIn
+IO~I 17%

29.8
21.0

27.0

1/90

rJ _
Atm'fTGfaI
...;,......
Rnzm

30

RelaIiftP'rresa-.

).for-2

PRUJEc,!"NS

PrIce

28.~

21.0

{1..oo.~

.M

lIfTA

High:

Low:

LEGENDS
_
10.0 I CII~ TDI'" P

YUl
3.3%
16.791~oo15.oG':~,'1~)~~O.89DIV'D

I~CENT
ProCE

--*s

a"" do''''.

f1I:'1a uII1
pm

n.n.I".

. Vl"IIi:t .. "Ildw:l

C.........

F ... _........

S1ock's PI1cII Stability


Price Grvwth........
Eamlngs P...actabllty
I

I".

75
10
45
:11"

11-,

SERVICEMASTER

Low:

4 "'"''' """

3 ","In"'O

SAfElY

3 RI5elI

TECHMCAl
ITA

LEGENDS

lllW 15

GIk1

{(l35~1
+40"1.

PI'

.2

8.'
8.'

5.2

Return
25"

...,
.,..
-..., ",OJ -, 1299t:",OJ.. .r",,,.,.........,, ,
"""""
OC~,

1 0 1 1 0 000
000
0 0 0 000
~I.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional Decisions

~'

",

M.l.P. results are not nealSSarily camparable.


Total Deb! $830.2mil.D.

k'l5 Vrs $275.0 mlil.

LT Dlbt $796.9 mi. IT Interest $85.0rnill.


(Totel iIBesI. coYBIilIJl!l: 4..5J1:)
(40% afCap1)

Las., Uncap1ta1Dd: Annual nmlals $63.0 mI.


Pension Plan

PhlS1Dc1lNono

Common Stod!. 298,933,000 sm


as of4l2llOS
billion

(Mid ClIp)

2/10'

2002

483.1

302."

CURRENT POSrrlOH

366.3

D1.7

655A

"_iPW"j

Put
1.Yn.

Plat

n...

5.5%

4.5%

ElrM1g.

6.5'4.5'-

2.0%
-7.5'-

Dividends
Book Value

----

.....,
CoI-

211'

2D02

4.5"

21.5%

......

6....
12.5%

21101
2lIG3
CoI-

.nd"

1199
2OIlO
211'

2103

14MF
NIofF
14MF

2.'"

NIofF

QUARTERlT REYEMJES IIoEl


Full
Ilr.J1 Jun.30 SeD.3D Dec.J1 Y.,
34JJ.5 1620.2 1586.3 1423.6 5970.8
735.7 1030.2 997." 837.7 3601.4
734.3 1034.9 1010.7 809.2 3589.1
IQ4S
13H 1060
135.3 J6TS
1100
115 3125
108'
EARNWGS PER SHARE A.
Filii
"r.3'
Ju.' -500.31 Dec.31 Y.,
.13
.16
.22
.11
.re .15 .12 .06
.04
.23 . .22
.07
.02
.23
.2J
.111
.Ill
.25
.24
.01
.10
QUARTERLTONIIBllS PAIl
FuU
.. r.31 Jun.31 S;;1lt<.3'
y.09
.09
J6
.09
.09
.09
.10
.10
.38
.09
.10
.10
.10
.40
.10
.10
.106
.41
.10
.106
.106
.106

(AI 0 .......

",

.:

"1,11,

,,

'I, II ".
I

"

- --

...

16
.13
1.12

"I."
15.1
.89
2158.9
8.1'
50.0
115.8
U~
42~
51.7
3845
269.2
19.6%
1Il.0~
12.7%
68~

" ~1. ""-

.. ....,..

... _

IB
12
10
8
B

.....

........
..,.

" TaT. RETURJI 5103

1111.

1993
10.70
.64

"

._-~-~ ... -

..

1IIIhl
I
....
1994 1995
1996 1997
1163
lD.79 14.15 15.85 18.55
20.00 11.98
'.99
.16
101
.99
1.18
1.15
.80
128
.1'
.54
.16
.64
.61
.64
.12
.38
IT
.30
.31
.33
.36
.38
.1Il
.28
.13
.13
.11
.17
.29
16
.13
2'
12J)
2.049
3.21
3.89
U16
2.33
187
3.'2
320.55 1320.40 279.94 298.", 3117b3 ,,8 .7 300.53
"'.57
13.8
1u
13.
17.1
3u
2JJ
30.'
.91
.64
1.67
.82
.99
133
1.18
1.55
3.4%
3.7'4
29%
21~
1.6%
2.1%
3.5""
3.6'
29852 3202.5 >158.3 3961> 4724.1 5703.5 5970.6 3601.4
9.0~
10.6% Ion
9.6'4 nl~
9.9' 10.8% 110~
79.0
642
66.0
93.1
104.6 138.4 157.7 126J
139.
172.D 245.1
2&1.1 190.0 224.6 185.0 114.5
41.9% 41,.4'
3.7'4 40..4% 412~
1" 29~
4.011
6.7'4
3.9'4
3211
7.1'
3.1'
'.7'4
5.4'
26.1
73.1
20J
d83.S
113.4 151.4
336.3
35'
3865 411.9 "'3
12.47.8 1016,2 1697.6 1756.8 1105.5
307.3 746.7
796.8 52U
9565 1205.7 1161.6 1221.0
22.4'1. 16.3' 20.1~ 17.1% 11.6"
8.4%
7.311
9.6%
45.5% 2J.0~ 3O.8~ 5O.4~ 19.9% 18.6~ 15>\
U%
16,.5"
12.4%
20.6"4
9.4%
.IF
B.""
12.0"
6.'%
64~
14~
60~
62~
40~
50~
lDo1~
'9'4

..

".,

,.~

1 Y' .
3 Y'.
' Y'.

"'"
.,..
"""
~..
-42.,

~.1
12.0
23.8

2004 ~ VAllIE I.WE PlI8 /HC.


12.03
IU' lug Rl'flllunF*'sh
'CuII_"por_
.76
.75
.111 Eamin;. pII' Ih A
~ .55
.41
.42
.43 DiY'dsDld'd per Ih II
2J)
.20
.2' c.,'J Spenang ,. '"
4.tll
Ul
4.55 B... _,.",
""-" 2'~'" 2>1.50 l;OIIlmanShsOulslg "A'1IAn.'1 P",221
121
A.uv. PIERdo
,>\
AWl Ann' Div'd Y"IMI.
3589.1
(\IoIIl)
217' 3125 R.......
11.1~ 10.5% 11.0" Ooon1In.M .....
51.9
10.0
0"",,,,::",..:"111)
170
'70.1
"0 Not_
3

."

- -...

.......:: ::,-

35.51

"" ...~""
""

4.7,

...
4.1lI

80.1
60.,
1218.7
10.:S'f.
14.0%

90.0
150
12.0
10.0%
13.5%

InCDIIII

'00
1/10
1255

1U"

,.~ '''' ..'"


n~
17"
14.""

14"

TII. AD

NII_M_
W_g eop, (Ino~)
Laog.T"", IlobI {1mJll)
SI".
RItum on 1~ elp'
R.... "" S1v. E.. it.
RNlnId to Con Eq
AU DiY'dl to Nil: '""

:
-

641
1>55
1.10

."
.41
.25

us
2K",
21.0

till
21%
4100
12511
'0.0
275

....""'"

12'

100
1735
12511
11.0%

~""
4IlI

BUSINESS: Sfni:eMasIar ~ny


is one elf ttlll nato/fs premiBr
CltJt!rdcilg cornpanieL T1'l'OIIgh. network of OYer 5,400 ~nyawned .nd hndIisaa' cenhn proviies a varEt)' rA.eM:es, such
as "'nan,
IIndscapi!g, IIlfITft and pest conttlI, pIurnbi1g, hBdn!illlnd .i" COIIdllionif!g lII.Iintenanca, wam.nty cor*ads b homeS,
and delning kl IT'DIlI than 12 ITilIOn residentill and lXlIlYnI!IIt:ia

custlm8rs in Ile U.S. and II 45.counhis MlUnd the wort!. OffJ


di'. ClWII3.0% of a:mrmn; Arirtl Capial Mgml, 9.6%; SouIheastem
Asset MgrrL, 6.0%; Capital Rese.cn, 5.6% (4i03 Proxy). '02 dllpr.
rate: 14.0% Has 245,000 erTllIoy. CEO: JonahIn Ward. Inc.: DE.
Addr.: 2300 Wiminvillll Rd., Downen Grove, n.. 60515. Tel: 630663-2000. InIamet : www ..-vialmasl:8I'.com.

SeIViceMaster has gotten off to a slow


in 2003. FJrst-quarter share net
came in at just SO.02, which was well be~
low our $0.10 call. and the year-ago
tally.
Several factors contributed to the short.fall. includJng the soft. economy's impact
on discretionary-services purchases and a
higher
tax rate. But.
the most sIgnl6cant
factor was the unfavorable weather. Cold
and heavy snowfall, espeteratures
dylnthe
Northeast and Midwest,
delayed the start of the application season
at TruGreen, the company's lawncare segment. Tenntnex. the pest-control business,
also lost about S20 million in sales, as the
lack of wann weather prevented termite
swanns, which
usually emerge from
March to May, from swfadn~.
The company will peoba ly post flat
year-over-year results in 2003. Though
TrnGreen will be able LDrecoup most of
the revenues lost in the March quarter,
this business probably won't be as profitahie. Since these services rn1.t5t be perfonned in a shorter period of time, technJdans will have to be paid overtime and
additional help will have to be hired.
Moreover. higher labor
costs, rising

healthcare expenses, and ongoing investments in markeUng and process JnJUaUves


are likely to fwther pressure margins.
We anticipate
a better
showing in
2004 and over the coming 3- to 5-year
period The company should be able to
boost the top lIne, once the economy gets
back
on track. Too. ServiceMaster
will
llkely use its excess capital to repurchase
shares and fund small acquIsiUons.
Meanwhile. the company is altering
its :marketing effects. Telemarkedng,
ServiceMaster's primary sales tool. is beeoming increasingly restrlcted. For exaInpie, new federal legislation has created a
national do-not-call list for telemarketing
firms. The law appUes to interstate calls,
and Servt.ceMaster prlmarlly makes Intrastate calls. However, down the road, individual slates could create similar 1eg1s1ation. Thus, the co~any will begin to shift.
more of its sales e orts to other methods
(I.e. direct maIUn~).
Though untime y;. this stock merits
watclrlng as a turnaround. candidate
Indeed. we lh1nk it offers wide 3- lo 5-year
price-recovery potential .
Deborah Y. Fung
June 13. 2003

start

.~

...... "'
CoI-

33.3
729.9
... .3

Est'd "00-'02:

Revvnues

''Cash Flow"

886.'
85.'

'"

31.1
715.9
839.1

814.4

ANNUAL RATES

198.8
341.7
15.3
273.1

216.7
9192

'23-"
352

DoblDuO

3131103

3322

71.3
ZlO.O
1150.7

Curnml uab.

TBrget Price RilO3i


2006 2007 2

'.0

.0
32

----

"

8.,

..

,'%

CAPITAl. STRUCTURE .. fA 301m3

""""

.' "

4.0%

YlJ)

llA

15.5

'.5

::::'11l526~ 1537:
Tho loonat on lt1is _
has been adjusted
to reflect 5ervi<:eMaster's
change from a
mosier limited par1nership (M.LP.) k> a corporation on 12131197. The slafjstical array
after 1997 retlecls 5erviceMaster
opera1ing
in liIe COIJlOI"1e loon. Plior 10 1997. file army IBIIec1s the company's
status as an
lim~od par1nership. Note: Corporate and

-._~

10.1

14.2
'.8

:.

'.5

CB~~
ReceIvables
'_(F'FO)
01h ..
Current. Assets

,".

14.9
8.'

1lIV'D

-:':'1

02

".2

m.

t." ," 1""1'

-.-

]-!a'-Zs;~1I!lI

1'"

22.2

25.5
'80

PrEe ShngII

JAIIONDJfM

MARKET CAP:

19.7

= ~~
~i=~
R __

""'IKPJSlIlII

No Ddlned Bind

11.8
'.8

~:l:j

Insider Decmiana

79

'.0
B.'

~6;';:'lhf--PIlll

21lIII-48PRWECTlON~.
Ann, TabI

115
RAm.

RELATI/E

- ~l~'tF"'PIlll

~nMl3

.15 O.Dll-MIlUl)

Prlce
K1gb Z5

..,
5.'

High:

lIIEUllBS

I~ 10.611~m 19.3(~'=::1:~)

NYSE.sYII

..,..

O'd . '""

.....,

Ir

gans (losses): '93, 1 ~; 117, 33t!; '99. 17~; 00, Jan .. ArK., JuL, Oct. Ie) In m", adj. for splls.
(4I; '01. ~.93I; 20 1J2, (:w). DiscDnt. oper. (Dj Heavy V&r1ica1 kie dlSlingui5hes SVMs
gall: '01, 1.06. Nut eps rpt. late JuL (8) No cf1ange tDm Ml..P 10 cr.rporaIB bin. (E)
o 21113. VIIlIe 1M ~
~
rtStMII. FKluII '"*"-I ~ lIIIaQsI fnlnl 'iDIICtS ~
10 be
1lI PlIIIJstER IS NJT RE
E OR Nl't [RRORS OR CIIIISSIONS HER~.1li5
~
Ill .,. be IqIrGad. ~
*Id II"""
11.,-"-,
.-.-:
III11C1'
'-..
_ b

&

......

5h:tJ!Dr
II

n'.""'

...

., ... """". IF) -"".,

nttI8d thIl discDnl d Management SWVices


busness.1.8ndCare Construdion, and Cer1f1lld
Systans. (G) R&stiJted for SFAS 142.
,..
..
is pawilelI ....
-.rIIJlies d ~
uIII.
5IJIl9:riber's

-'*'i..,

.........

priIItd II *t:IllIIi: .......

U5e. 0 pilI!.
SI'I'Iice II pgdqcl

Com""" ,..._'........

.-

SkJck'l PrIeI: S1I.b1i1y


Pra GrDWttI Pe"tItaftoI
Earnl. PlWdidabilty

, "

80
60
!5

I I:

I I

SIGMAALDRICH NDQSlAl
3 _~1!2,,"
2 ..... .".,
3 ..... ""'"

.... EUN[SS

SAFETY
TECHNICAL

.so

BIJ,

High:

(+2511

.........
ID'' I
...,
....
::::. ,-

oc;,~

i1cIcifn

127
'22

",.,
142

....,

'30

lIB

130

42.8

41.1

26.9

25.8

35.3
24.5

40.8
202

:",,,
1'111'

....4
h'

,I'"

'.,

1,..

8
4

,,.
3,..

"

"...

.....

"".

IIIlr.31 Jun.30 Sea.io DKJ1

2000

302.S

20M

eal.nd.,
2000
2001
2002

2003
2004

.....,
c

1199

2000
2001

200Z
2003

261.8
293.T
304.3
325

o&l"

263 .

26~6

2ffl.7

292..

304.8 296.3
J2D
320.3
~ m 335 33lI
EARlllWG5 PBllllARE
Mu.31 Jlln.3D S'PiJ- DK.31
.40
.45
.42
.39
.48
.45
.45
.49
.54
.56
.92
d14
.68
.112
.15
.7lI
.70
.7lI
.7lI
QUARTfRLT DIVI)EN()S PAID C
lar.31 Jun.30 51p.30 DK.31
.145
.073
.673 ..
.155
.018
.OT8 ..
.0825 .
.165
.0825

FIll

V.r
1096.3
1119.4
1201.0
130Il
1335

...

...
.11

.0850

.0850

.0680

(A' "'d the ""',""'..


of ... Supab>
clatM,wlog.a"hy ornsl:ln Rotm .1Id Haas
f1tlm 5m3; .nd CidB AW PrtIdud!l Company
frml 6193
o ZUll ...

nu:

tile ~
PlB..ISHERISNJT
RE
-.y lie ~
malt ~

.8

J2

12

.....
.....

.neI.r

305.6

I ~,

..

lID
80

24
2D
16
12

...
.....

.. TOT. Jt[T1JRII SlDJ

Permnl

"...

316.9
334.7

. 11"11

...... ----.
._---- ....

..

....

." "

''''

QUARTERLY SAlS ~

Target Price Range


2006 2001 2008

III

28lI'

2001

38.2

....

200Z
2003

55.6
40.9

52.'

Ill)

b'

..,..

363

0.7%

stl

1981
1992 1993 1994 1995
1996
1991 1998 1999 2000
1988 1989 1990 1991
5.92
6.51
8.54
3.09
3.80
533
7.42
9.62 10.34 11.23 11.87
10.29 11.12
.45
1.01
115
1.41
2.10
.70
.81
.96
1.40
1.73
1.93
~13 217
~14
54
1,.41
.n
.80
.96
1.D8
1.11
1.32
1.66
1.65
1.66
.43
57
.65
1.48
.12
.17
.11
.13
.15
.19
18
.31
.07
.08
.09
.23
16
.29
.31
.73
.10
11
.36
16
.75
.60
.94
1.08
1.30
.52
33
,4.43
3.11
5.14
7.02
817
10>0 12.09 1~48
8.n
1.99
W
3.02
593
U2
9'J.49 ".65 ".b1
98.>4 98.11 ".08
!I!I.1S luo." 1100.38 luo." 100.91 98."
1..
24.8
15.8
18.5
18.7
19.5
20.6
22.9
168
15-'
18.' 19.9 20.9 20'
1.n 1.64 1.48 1.53 1.58 1.56 1.35 111 1.12 1.18 1.15 1.09 1.19 112
1.0\
.6\
.6\
!\
.8\
.1\
.1\
.7\
.1\
.8'
CAPrrAl sn.uCTURE as of 31311113
139.4 851.2 959.8 1034.6 1121.1 1194.3 1037.9 1096.3
Total Delli: 1234.8 mil. Dw In 5 l',. 158.1 mil.
27.1" 2".1" 25.7" 26.7" 26.8\ 25.6" 26.11 25.3"
LT Dlbt $116.7 mil.
LT Int.rat $1.2 mil
38.1
48.1
67.6
32.5
40.
451
61.8
66.9
('T" 01Cap'O
1011 110.3 131.7 141.9 166.1 1663 148.6 139.1
No D.rinld ~netil: Penllon Plan
31,.4% 27.1% 31.5"
35.3\ 35l"
35b\ 35.6\ 34.3\
Lus., UnCllp1tl11ud Annual rentals $12.9 miD.
14.7% 13.914 14.3% ,2.7\
14,5" 13.0'1 13.n.
14.3"
33U
391.3 5O~0 556.3 5871 63lI.3 669.0 318.3
PtcI Stod. None
14.5
11.3
13.8
100.8
3.8
6
1
591.1 699.5 824.7
94~3 1060.3 1216.4 1259.4 659.3
11.7% 15.5"1e 15.8Y. 15.7"'1e 1S.1% 13.1% itS"
14.a'l.
Common stock 71, 122,575 shs.
as of 4112103
18.1% 15.S1 16.lIl 15.1" 15.11 13.11 11.81 161\
MARKET CAP: $3.9 biUioft (MId Cap)
1~.6" 13A% 13.1'4 13.3% 13.2% 11.3% 9.4% 13.1'
CURRENT POSJTK)N
28lI2
3131~3
15\
14\
16\
17\
15\
20\
14"
52.4
BUSINESS: Sigma-AkIrDl Corp. develops, manufadures, and disCa~~
37.6
542
175.4
Receivables
181.5
2062 tributes 8 wid8 mnge of bixhBnals,
g8nic
d'1emicals.
Inventory (UFO)
468.9
421.4
-417.2 chramatography poducts and diagnoAi: I&i!gen1I. The company
00.,
39.3
45.7
4&1
Current Assets
127:3
694.9
"""72fi distributes rnn ItIM'I 65,000 pmjuc:t!l in (MIl" 160 C%lUlliiBs. These
59.5
69.2
73.0 products .. 1-.:1 n R&D in univlnlll8s end "'duslry .... the diagAccts P.yatMe
DablDue
270.4
58.1 nose of dilseasu. and .!I specialy chemicals b m.1UMJfadlrilg pr0.89.'
00..
67.7 ...1QM
113.5
Current. Uab.
265.1
244.6 Sigma-Aldrich"s profits were better
397.8
than expected in the first quarter.
ANNUAL RATES Pat
Put Est"11 'OO-'G2 Share net came in at $0.68. compared to
of ...... (po"~1
1.fn.
our estimate of $0.55. A six.-cent currency
10.0%
9.5%
7.0%
''ClI!Sh F!ow"
tail wind helped. as did a two-cent gain
9.0%
6.0%- 12.""
8.0,,"
14.5"
Eanm1l1
3.5%
from a reversal of historical charges and
Dividends
11.0,,"
7.5%
8.5"
another two-permy pront from discontinBook Value
.5%
12.0%
2.5%

51.5

nD

"."

32.1
23.8

IJIVl)

WJ% 1.26

1,1 I

~;

53087

163

,'

"

,'."

ClI1II

25.9

15.0

u
211(TrOin
21.1)

IKli .. : ZOJ

ItRssiln

..

0 0 000
0 1 0 .)'; ......
1 e 0 2 5 1 030
1 4 0 2 4 0 0 5 0

Institutional Decisions

In

27.6

.~~~

:.~

7%

-1%-

JA50lfPJf

29.0'
22.3

54 95 WRAm

2"-\.~ 1/97

RftIm

e.".

PRUJEC11ON~.
Ann, 1*

Price
GI!ft
Hillh 70
lolr
50
(-10%
Iruilder Decisions

29.~
20.9

Low:

LEGENDS
Till I
r~
.. , Rs.we Pn:e Slrftl
2-b-'~
l/!1l

{I.lIO-1IIIlUQ

~8

WCENT
PlIICE

..

Y.,

1.66
1.87
1.18

..

~
110

'oil

Va'
29

Jl
.33
.34

10.4
59.4

48.'

f-'
.."""
~
~.1

,,.
'"

2001 2002 2003


2004 VAl.UEUtitPlJ8,~C.I_
16.15 16.97
Illl5 SIIH plnl! A
21311
~ Cuh Flow"' per sh
~90
2.TI
~
3..l5
U 1" Eaninppwlh
U1
1.78
U.
.31 DWd' DKI'd per III C
.33
.34
1.50
.65
.15
eop'_g,..
...
1./JIl
15.15 Book YIIuI fill" Ih
11.09 12.40 IU.
JUG
(J.Di
11.1 7T.00 7a
onlllOn :inllJUtsll ... lOW
AVJIAnn' filE Rilo
231 26bb BoI .,
1.19
1.45
RIIa1iYt PIE Rilo
1.3.
Av; An.., DlY'dY".-:I
.8\
.7\
.Ill
13llll
1335 SIIa (1IIiI1
1179.4 1207.0
21",
2US
24b\
26."
11,.4
66.3
7a.
7U
0~.s.:..1
14rH
130.7
115
'15 Nit Protl
27'
301\
32.0% 31."" 31.0" lrlconIt 111 RG
31.""
11.9\ 10.8" IUS
IUS .01 "'"'" .....
1U"
329.1 429.2
WaningCap11lnMI
1T1.7
116.8
175
l7S
"""'''''''_(
.... 1
Shr.-Ea .... I$Oollli
809.T 8621
14.9Y.
17.01 ".0% Rnun an 10\11 C.'
11.01
...
11.4% 14.8% 19.5" 'l5ll R.......
Shr. E";"
Il""
11.1'%
14.3" 12.1% 'l5ll IUS RnihMi 10Cen q
,41\
17\
19\
US
'4S
AI D"'da ..... """
casses. Fore~n salQs.bout 55% r:I '02 n!Y. Has .bout 6,200 I!!fTl.
pby~. Oh. and dl's. awn 1.5% 01 n.; Welingtxl Mgnt.. 8.0%;
AIM Fundi. &.3%: Vangua-d. 6.0%; stnl FIII1I1 MUlua~ 9.H.; A.
B....
5.7% (3103 pn:ay). Chalmlin. Pr8si:Ient & C.E.O.: Drti:I
Harvey. 11ICOIP.:DE. Addr.: 3050 SPfUCIllSt.. Stlouis.
MO 63103.
TeI.: 314-711-5765. IntBmet: www.sigm .. Idri:h.a:m.

..

'U.

..

." ...

...

..

....

::::-

_.Ii.... "..
28.""

u..

... ...
... ,...

"

...".

"'"

vious years), in order to try and stay


ahead of the product lnnovatJon curve,
particularly In the Biotech (22% of sales)
area. We also expect large U.S. drug mmpanles to hold off purchasing substantial
custom orders of fine chemicals untU the
economy improves.
ued operatlons. Even so, the company's op- Earnings
likely
be
growth wl1I
eratlons perlonned well In the quarter.
tougher to come by in the years
due primarily to strong lntematJona1 sales ahead. The company has about a ]096 and
(55%of the total).
20% share of the global and U.S. line
We have raised our 2003 sbare-net call chemicals
markets,
respectively.
To
from $2.40, to $Z.60. Much of this Is due remain a leader. though. Sigma Is having
to invest heavily in R&D to replenish its
to the /In;t-period result. Addltlonally. we
look for favorable currency translations to lnventoz with new products relevant to
continue as the dollar remains weak future emand, speclflca1ly in the transagainst most foreign currendes.
Some genics, protein isolation. anti-terrorism
modest share buybacks (Sigma has anoth- detection. and electnm1c chem..icals arenas .
er 2.5 mUllan shares authorized for repur- Too, in-house stores will increasingly caplchases under Its 35 million shelf registra- lallze on customer desires to consolidate
tlon), and a slightly lower tax: rate (more vendors and outsource procurement bus1.sales wlllllkely be generated from abroad)
ness.
should help the bottom Ilne. Partially 08'- The stock.. has risen substantlaUy
s.etting these positives. however, is the since our March report. due to the
likelihood. of increased spending on sales good first quarter. Thia equity now
and
marl<etlng lnltlatlves designed to has limited capital gains potential to
rnalntain market share. R&D is also going 21ll16ZlIlI8.
up to 4% of sales (from around 2% in pre- Jeremy J. Butler
June 20. 2003

B"" ........

(8'
011 """ of ~1. --;
ftIII'Baftar EJc1. ~des t1ss ttm dlSDll"lllnlIId DpI!I1Itiw.
112. $0.76. Next: 8irmngs
~pcwt due mlhJuly.

Ir'

Nard ,."
m....... Goos .....
Aug Approxmatedl'l
. piIIyment dAIs' Ji!Jl 2,
"'.
15, JlIfI8 17, SIIpl15
CD) In millions, ~
tJr sD;:k spits

~
1t5eI'nIlI. F8CWII --..l1li15 otIIiIled kalI ~
~
III be....-tlle
..
t5 potided
Lf. ORNN[R.R0i50ROIMSSIOMSH[R~
Thi5pu111aliont5*dJiIr
......
~_._~
II" ~
III11J ~
.....
,.., In. II' lISI!III b" ~
-.teIiIIJ IlIJ flI"Il'lIlI ~

_~

....

Ill' ~
lISt

MnEI! lI"

pm
prlI"Mt

e...,p.or.: ''''_1_",

Stock"'li rfc Stl.blity


Pricli Growth PerUltencl
Eamings Pf8dictUIlty

".

lID
45

65
: II:

II-

SMITH A.D.

High:

3 l_~ ""'"
3 Nr.llZl8:1

a1EIJH[SS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

Ann'I Total
Refum

2 0 0 0 0 0

Decisions

ZQZ.2

7'
33
16300

XIIOl

'

14.3

'"

...:1::'1

...

19.1

2. 7

35.9

28.9
19.1

22.0
13.9

72

" ",

,
'I

"

I.

41

"."

"'.

....

(33""

=~able
.

22"

...,

ANNUALRATES p-

""",.""""

S....

"Cash Flow"

5~~s

Book V....

-c'"

andar
llI01

21103
20M

end8r

2101
2002
21103

.nd ..

1999

2001

2002
ZOOS

Pat

7.0,,"
'.0%
. 2.0""
4.0,,"
6.0%

3.0%
3.0"
7"'''

7.0%
7.0%

......
a""

.66
.85

.72

QUARIBlI.T __

.34
.53
.51

Intetnal

sales

gruwth

&I'd "OQ.'12 Oat for A.O. Smith

n...

11YI1

fO.~

'6.~
7.0%

7.'"

QUARTElll.T SoIW (ioill


M".31 Jun.30 Sto.30 Dec.31
344.0 341.3 290.8 211.3
318.2 308.3 269.1 255.6
37... 386.3 352.4 35B5
37..
387.9 405
37Z
405
ft5
395
3JO
EAlUllNGS PER SILIRE'
M.,.31 Jun.30 Stp,30 DecJ1
.6ll
.31
.11
.74
.36
.45
.C12
.03

.50
.46
_80

..

..'"

.38
.51
.1$
PMJ"

Ma',31 Jun.30 Stn.3Q Dec.31


.12
.12
.12
.12
.12
.13
.13
.12
.13
.13
.13
.'3
.14
.13
.13
.14

F"

V.,
1247.
1101~
1409.1

'640
'825
FilII

Y.,
1.76
.66

c1.86
220
245

F'"
v.,
.48
.50

.52
.54

.14

was virtually

in the first

quarter
on a year-overyear
basis. Demand for
water systems was subdued in the period
because of a Significant pre-buy in the prevlous quarter ahead of a scheduled price
increase in early February. Electrlcal
products also showed little organic Imprevement from 2002, though revenue- in
that segment was up 9% due to recent acquisltions, Athens Products and Chinabased Changheng Group. Customers in
the Heating, VentIlation, and Air Conditloning rna.cket remain cautious in their
electric motor purchases, but sales should
steadily Improve on a year-toyear basis in
2003 as the economy continues to slowly
recover. Too, an additional acquisition or
an unusually wann summer may well enhance our revenue estimates.
Cost-cutting
initiatives Will likely 011'set rising expenses
this year. Aside
from the lower rnaJ'ltins associated with acquisltions, higher steel, pension, and Insurance costs have been a drag on proB.ta
bUity. Too, share-net romparisollS should
once again be unfavorable in the cu.rrent
quarter because of a higher share count

lH[

P\&JSHR

IS JIlT Rl
-*l. _,..

d'''''''''''''

[ OR IY rRRORS
~

i1.,,n-.

OR OIlISSlClNS HERE ... ~


eIfdIcIlIit. "'-..

is

i:I ~

slri::lIy b ~
.......

t*d'Mi::

II

...."" .......""" ::

~ TOT. RETURN 31111

'"
,,,.

3".

7.0
".3

-100

-1.5

-10

-2$.3

VAlUElJIE PIJB ~C.


2004
20012002
2003
50.50 6110
5100 SIllSPI' III
71.10
4814
U.
4.00
4.J5 'CuII Flow" II"'"
1.83
3.0'
1M
120
U. e.MIp per sh A
175
M
.54
.10 OWd. Ded'd pit' III '.71
.52
1.46
1.50
1.10
1.48
Cop'l &pond;'g II"'"
18.94
17.60
11.30
IUd Soat VaN. pw III D
zua
__
h.
29.
.00
23.86 29.
27.50
14>
29.4
A',MnHIE
Rdo
114
.78
RIktift PIEKilo
.10
1.05
Ayg Ann' Dly'cI
t.",
3."
1."
11512 1-469.1
.540
1125 Sola IIodII
1175
f1.,", 0
9.B%
6.4~
'14"
50.7
41.1
02.0
64.0
10.0
... 0
51.3
105
29.5
720 ... ""'It loIiII
35.6" 34.5% 34.5% u.", IncorH 1. RdI
>3%
4-'" ... ""'IlIM ....
3.5'
250
350
221.6 226.6
1M WootingCll"lln.,
390.4 239.1
250
250 longT." _llnIII) ,
200
511.1
510
815
T15
461J
3.3% 7.1%
11.5"
l'" '.0% Rnn an loti! Clip'
Shr.E_
120% R.......
4.5% 10."
13.5"
7.3% l'"
lO% RIIIIIMd 10 Com Eq
1.8%
11.0"
24% AI D/Y'dslo Nt1 Pro!'
25lI
6D'J'
28"
ees. 5m1h lnVestnent Co. lM'1IS94.2% or Class A shinS and
7.6% of corrmon; OIls. & csn., 13.1% at" ccnwnon; Plrtins, WrJI,
McDonnell & Co., 11.2%; T. RD'MIPri:8, 11.2%; Oinensional Fund
Advi!Ion, 5.5% (3i03 prexy). CtmTI., Pml. & CEO: Robert J.
OToole. Inc.: DE. Address: 11270Wesl:Part~,
Miwau_, WI
53224. Telephone: 414-359-4000.lnI.-net www.aosmiI:h.emn.

...

'.55

-..--:::

:;

.a'"

,.~

yo..,

o_-::m,

"-'"

U"

S'' .-...... 'lmIIl 0

....."

""

related to the sale of 4.8 million conunon


shares last May. However, current plant
consolldation and headcount reductions
may weU save the company $25 million on
an annual basis. 1lIe ongoing integration
of State Industries, purchased at the end
of 200 I, should also Increase operating effldency. Note, though, that the full ~ct
of these lnJt1atlves will not be felt un
the
end of the year. and material margin lmprovement is not llk.ely until the latter
half of 2003.
New regulations
shouJd benefit the
company. Flammable-vapor
safety features will be required on all new gasfired
residential water heaters within the next
two years. Smith plans to phase In new
30-, 40, and 50-gallon units by July 1st,
the compliance deadline for those sizes.
These new heaters will likely c:a.rTy higher
margins than current models.
The stock is ranked 3 (Average) for
Timeliness.
Based on our 3- to 5-year
recovery
projections,
however, Smith
$hares hold only moderate appreciation
potential to 2005-2008, barring another
sizable acquisition over that span.
Robert E. Du Boff
May 2. 2003

do""."" ......
o.l. _~

~ ~.

""
"
12

IAI-.
.... _
... ' ............. m...... ~. 1':1; Bod. """'. "'d, 50.251... pd. ICI7 ....
~_JDI' ...~~SlDc:k's rica Stlibilify
Em. I1OIHIlC1I'ri'Igbsses: '9Z, $f.57; '01, .'W!. N8Jj jy'd mfg. early July. NwI u-dllfg intang. At 121'31,uz:$309.2 RilL, $10. ish.
$0.25. Excl dIE. ~.: "96, S1.28; '97, $4.13; lite July. ~pmx. div'd pmnt. utes: 15th or
In d., adj. for stoct splits.
Pm Growth ...... t1tMtC8
'99, ($0.33); '00,
.50). Next l!IgI. rpl due Feb., Ma)', ug. & Nov . OPld l1Iiwesl pBn.
Ird.Iang-l1llm debI of frlilllO! unit..
u,mlngs P..sicb.biRty
ODZOOl. YIIlIe ""
~~~.
F'l:lUil /lllmilIl ~ obl ...
honIltUtft ~
10 be ~
....
I""iMd wIhouI"~
III
UJd.

t~

54

20
1.

.'

..

=i

..-_. ....
...-- - ...

1'1111

"',

.
Target PI1c. Range
2006 2007 2008

23.5

...

17804 174'4
I
1998
1999
2000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1987
1988
1989
1990
24.71
44.42
39.38 36.66 3425
3U7
43.80
49.23
34.09 39.39
52.99
38.61 39.64 41.14
3.74
lJl
3.04
3.65
4.09
1.5<
2.61
325
3.68
1.50
1.80
1.90
2.'1
JI
.81
1.11
.48
1.13
.07
.93
1.39
1.B3
1.96
1.33
1.84
1.16
.62
d.36
.48
18
.33
.44
.45
.47
IT
.21
IT
IT
IT
.39
IT
U()
1.42
1.76
1.43
1.20
1.84
1.72
1.01
1.35
1.T1
1.64
1.90
1.20
1.94
8.69
8.01
'.89 '.T1 9.64 1016
'.97 11.87 13.47 .6.36 1112 18.43 19,04
3, ..
31.1lJ ,1.
<UO
JU.55
25.1> 25."
<J.73
".55
.'
I1J
10.5
18.5
11.6
10.u
. 4
10.5
B.O
1U
'2
.. .33 o.Bl
1.30
.66
1.00
.64
.TO
.54
U7
.T1
.65
.66
2.n;
1.n;
l.n;
5.311 4.4%
1.1%
25~ 1."
1.8~
20% 2.8~
0.211 4.'~
3-'"
CAPrTAL STRUCTURE u of 3131103F
1193.9 1373.5 1544.8
917.6 1039.3 1247.9
7812
631..
Total Dlbt $265.1 mil. Due In 5 Yrs $45.0 mil,
111~
11.5% 10.5% 10.Sft 11.1% 12]~
1O.6~
11-'"
LT nt.rqt $11.0 mi&.
LT Dtbt $253.4 ml.
51.7
11.6
37.
46.1
571
66J
26.
311
{LTn. earned: 6.8::1; IomlmllRSf aN.: 6.6.1'
41.7
51.
61.4
251
37.6
44.
50.3
41.7
Cap' 41.0%
34.8'" 36.0~
38.3" 31.9% 37.Q" 34.6~ 34.T~
Lus .. , Uncapltalud Annual rentals $14.3 nil
Pension Asseb-121D2 S592.B mill.
3.6~
4.2'11 4.0"
3.211 4-'"
4.8%
4.1" 3.3%
Obllg. $703.9 mi.
100.8 237J1 1551
80.7 113.6
138.8
22Il1 135.7
190.6 166.1 190.9 238.4 101.0 131.2 351.3 316.4
PIlI Stock None
269.6 312.7 312.4 424.6 39!1.7 401.1 431.1 448.4
Common Stock 29,050,000 shares..
10.211 13.2'4 12.0% 4.4% 8.211
7.1% 6.8%
Include! 8,550,000 ems A shires.
IllARKETCAP: saso million (Small Cap)
15.8% 18.3~ 16.5% 5."
~
9.41" 11.1% 11.7%
ZOO, 313'~3 11.3'11. 15.0% '32% 2.7' 6.2'11 8.3' 9.1% 6.7'11.
CURRENT POSrrK)N z001
M
S5~
34~
28~
2Il%
25~
16"
,l,,-lLl
Co ......
20.
27 ...
32.'
Receivabln
24ft1 BUSIfESS: A.a. Smilh Carp. is a IIrading manufadllnl" rl eIBcfi.
215.5
209.'
Inventory (UFO)
194.7
217.7 cal prtMlucts (50% of '02 sa1B5) i1nd wat!l" hulir systems (SO%).
200.'
00..
39.6
52.2
Sot:l au1o-9ll'tS unl (milnufldlh" of autl and net hmes), 4197;
Cunen1 AsslIts
417.6
... .3
535.' flbergw unl, 12/00; sttnge tank buliness, 1101.Acfd UPPCO,
150.9
131.1
131.4
Motor bt,miJess, 7198; M-oneTeka eIedric
11.7 3197; GE"s ~
16.6
11.7
,06.3
118.6
115.6 mob" unil 80M; Stata Industrier., 12101. HIls about 16,200 ernpIcrf0Ih0<
Cu1J8n1 L.iab.
278.2
256.0
261.7

....

29.7

32.8
19.0

,~ -.-

" 'I' ''\

'

P",_

20.1
14.7

I""h

!I!".

23.1
11.2

32.0
18.8

15.8

'JI
" ,.....

"20l

1.9%

,~.

011

Institutional

:~':.._.~~

l~l ,." .

0 2 4

11.6

r..-

....
55
LlM
35
+20%
7%
Inlikier Decisions
J J A SON
P J F
"..,.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
~.
0 2 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 ~II
.. WI

23.~

f
29 26 jrRAOO
14, S(trOin
,15J)~~O.921~
Mod/." 131

l-bl" 119]
l-b'-2 5iIl 1191

2110&-48PROJEc I!"N.~.
GIin

LEGENDS
_
7!l1-C1~
p 5h
..
RmlIwe PrJ:~ Slrmglll

4 _~ 41\,.,

'2.~
6.0

Low:

.15 (l.DO .. Man.et)

BETA.

I~CEHT
PR/CE

NYSEAOS

.......

pIIt

pubkIIiIR. mW:z.11I JIl'odiII:l

'.

65
30
50

II:

I I ,

Nil

SONIC CORP. NDQ-SONC


11IIEUNESS

RI!.tll4f1WJ

SAfElY

N!'I9fl5Dl

TECHNICAL

3 ........,.,
"'l

..........

~~==j"""...
"" TOT. RET\JR1115M3

1 yr.
3 yr.
5.".

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


8.20 10.07 11.10 1:1
1.08
5.16
6.16
,.34
~1
1.10
1.56
1.as
115 155
.93
1.13
1.30
1.15
.50
.1B
.63

.
H'
H'
---1.58
1.09
.89
1.63
121
!.s'
U'
3.11
3..58
3.92
UB
S.W
7.00
110
.4O.JJ
~.74
JL5I
J4uo
"..
.'-"
J!I.'"
18.3
22.5 ~~
~_
11.4
17.5
16.
.90
1.00
1.07
.94
1.1B
....
_ "'_'

---LT Dlbt $138.1 mil.

LT

63.B

1ntII_ $7.0 mil.

24.1\

1.9
B.6
36.1"
No Defined Ben.tl

10.3'

Pension P!IIn

I.'
6.6
46.8
16.6\

PId Stock ~one

COINftOIIStock 38,696,675 shs.

18.5'
MARKET CAP: P75 million (Small Cap)
18.5%
CURRENTPOSmoN
2001
ZOO2 21211Q3
(IIIU-)
C8Sh
Auets
Receivables
IrlVentor)'

(Avg

Cs1)

Other
CUrT8rrtAss8ts
Actts Pa)'llble
Debt Due
Olher
CUrT8n1Liab.

7.0
12..1
2..0
2..4
23.5
8.1
1.1

---!.!.:r
26.9

ANNUAL.RATES Put
aldIanp"lh)
llYn.
Sales
18.5%

"Cash Raw"
Eaml1gs

24.0%
21.0%

DMdends
Book V8Iue

-
19.5%

EftdI;

9.0
13.8
2.3
4.9
30.0
6.8
1.1
35.0

Est'd '00-'02

nn.

" ....'.

19.0%
22.0%

21.0%
17.0%

65.9 58.'
71.0
81.3
98.6
lI5

12.5"
14.5"
17.5%
Nil
2f.OK

1''''1" /;:!.,
Y.. ,

P.r AsIg.Ptr
1'.3 81.5

Fab.P-r ....

2101
1102
2003
_

5.9
1.1
17,2
242

63.2
91.6
B1.6 111.3
00.'
130
IDS
14$

I. ...

104.8
120.'

150

l
f.ra
EAlUMGS PER SHARE".
f: NoY.P.rFft.Per.,.PtrAag.Pe'
_
lGOI
_
2OD3

c....
andu

.11
.21
.13
.16

.JJ

.11
.13
.11
.20
.21

.21
.27
.35
.41
,41

NO CASH DIVIlENDS
8BNGPAIl

2001

2002
2003

CAJFla.l

.27
.32
.38
,43

.51

QUARTERlY DPiIJBIIS PAl)


11,.31 Jun.30 5.11,30 Dtc.31

1199

)'U"

ends August 31st

180.1
330.
400.
515

Y.,
.18
.93
1.13
U'

1.15
FuN

V.r

14.0'

19.7%

15.4~

16.1%

219.1
280.1
251.6
29.'% 31.3"
27."
1U
18.5
203
32.6
222
27.4
37.1% 37.2'
311"
fO.'S 10.6S 11.~
d13
dl.1
dB.'
68.B
19.6
005
132.0
149.8 1553
11.9,.
13.0\
14.5'"
16.B" 1B.SS Z1.0I0

330.6 4001
~
31.'% 31.1% 3'-""
13.9
16.1
2.!-'
39.0
41.1
....

16.8'1.

18.3'

21.0'

37.3%
11.8"

d3.'

37,2%
11.9"

dll.9

BookYllu.,..1h

f~4lI

omnronSlniWrstS"
AygAnnlPItKIIDO
R_.PIE Rdo
Avg Ann' Div'd YlIId

Jl.aa
f7.0
U5

515 TaIIIRtvIlNI.!WlA
3'-"" _'.....
31' 'opnciaion("'WI

...0..,

Proft1I~1
InCCIIINITu btI

31.5"

37,",

111"
/135.'

1i~ NISPrvIt-"
d31' W_g tap' ("'I)

110

121.2

115 LongTIm DIbII .... '

200.1
13.1%
19.4"

14!l%

20.7"

Z10
m 9Iu,-_I~1
15.0% U.D% RnnnonTDIIIClp'1
ltI.5l 1U" R.un onSIIr. ~

19.4%

20.7%

20.",

11.5%

BUSINESS: Sonic Corpor.Ition hnthises ilInd Dpl!htes lie Iiirgest


c:nail d ~w-fl reslallfilnts ~ lhe Uniilcl States. As d Febrary,
28, 2003, ...
'M!I'e 2,600 Soni: mtHls, d wtlich 2, 150 WIIfl!l
fulnchiud and 450 WBfB aJrrI8I'IY-cwned. Sonic off8rs nBde-tDorder .ndwidles, q waI illSmany unique Ems such as ~
Chet.u Coneys, Isle' lots. and an assonnent d ttIZfII'I and faun-

Sonic appears
on track to deliver
strong
ean:dngs
gains in 2003. The
company has had to overcome poor
weather, as well as higher labor and advertlslng costs. But. It continues to expand
both the top and bottom lines. CUE"St lraffie has recovered, as weather has improved, and we expect a favorable foodcost environment in the near term. SUll.
Sonic experienced flat same-store sales
(SSS) over the flJst six months of the fiscal
year. However, we expect. SSS for the third
quarter will likely come in at the higher
end of the 1%~3%range expressed by the
company, thanks to new products and the
breakfast menu.
Breakfast is served. The company began
its rollout of the early morning menu in
ZOO1. Sonic has recently completed the
systemwide rollout to an additional ) ,300
stores. A5 a result, the rompany will st.ep
up Its advertising muscle to support
breakfast. Thus far, those units offering
the early morning menu Cormore than two
years have seen breakfast encompass more
than 1096 of total store sales. And. the
minlmal capital invesunent required to
add the meal have franchisees welcoming

ffI-

C>YAl.IJEUNEPlIl.~C.
,_
R.wn .....
IhA
17.35
"Cuh FkM" P"'''
155
EamiI'Ig.,..shll
UO
Dlv'd. OKt'd per Ih
Nil
C""'SpondOlgporsh
1..10

121.8

130.7

-4.'
12.0
23.8

RataiMd1oConEq

H'
HI AI DlY'c1s1o'" Prof
-- -- --
-- -- -- -f-=~=""'""",-'--;c--;:L".,--'-,,.,--,-L----::---C-----c::-'-c-:;:c:':::~-'-="'=:,--,,--~==-==-=c':-:-=--1

Put

C~lBlI.lREYENIIES

,",ow,'''

4.5
13.9
-6.3

99.1 123.B 151.1 184.0


24.9% 27.0% 182"
1'.1"
.2
B.9
11.3
5.9
19.1
1.6
11.5
16.9
37.3%
31.5% 382" 369"
I.'" 10.15 11.1S 1D.4'
35
1.3
35
'2
11.1
30-6
20.9
45.7
54.' 63.' 109.7 1182
lU%
14.3% 13.4% 12.3'
14.01 19.7'
1fi.l~
15."~

.92
109.3
1150.1

H'
NO
318%
.
.
n,",

1I.w,
....
15..
...
, ."'
11Mli
1l(l%

Nil

tain drinks. The everage Sonic has between 2410 36 awwed p&rt.I1g spaces and feallns an intert:om spB8w system llmugh which
onI8n M! p8ced. Has roughly 280 aIfJl. empb)oees. 011". and di'.
own a 1% Of ct1TIl'lon sbck (1W2 pmxy). Channan: E. Dun W,..ms. Inc.: DE. Address: 101 PIIR AY8nU8, Oklilhcml CIy, OK
73102. Telephone: 0405-280-7654. lrrllmet www.mnicdrivein.mm.

the revenue

SOUIT'e.

Still. an initial uptick

in labor costs in anticipatlon of the breakfast offerings has not been offset by In-

creased sales due to the low awareness


levels. We expect. margins to improve, as
rnarketlJ1B support takes hold. Further.
profltablUty should rise, as each unit is
ully utllized across parts of the day.
The franchise
pipeline wiD help grow
the Sonic brand. With the breakfast offerings coupled with a quality menu, franchlsees are flocking to Sonic. New franchise openings are up v~us the same period. la:s.tyear, and new area development
agreements are In place. which call fDr 600
stores to be developed over the next
several years.
Sonic shares are timely for the coming six to 12 months.. Despite the competltlve quick-service restaurant
envtronment. the company rontlnues to expand.
Meanwhile, advertising expenditures will
exceed $100 million this year, in order to
increase brand awareness. We project a
good. amount of success in SONes plans.
and at the current pr:lce. the shares offer
solid long-term appreciation potential.
Jeffrey B. Levit
June J 3. 2003

23.4
15.3

36.3

32.5

40.0

33.3
18.9

30.5 24.5

19.0

19.0
11.8

19.9
13.9

35.'
17.6

lOA
13.1

..
.....

,"

45.75

u.

.62
1.05 1.13 1.04
.98
9.11 9.88 10.11 10.92 1U9
29. 1 29.18
.64.
1
16.7 152
12.9 13.5 '1.4
1.12 1.26
.98
1.00
.13
1.9'1. 2.5% 3.0% .0%
. "

.79
11.18
Z8.1
12.5
.16
35%

CAPITAL 5TRUCTURE u Df3l3IMIJ

Tat.fDelrlS175.Zmil. Dll"'15YrsS.Zma
LTDlbl$175.0ml.
LTlntl:restS7.0ml.
(LI i'ItBntsI earned: 4.2x; total i'IIen!sI: cavenge:
'.2><)
(36%ofCao~
L......
UncapltaizedNooe

Pension Assrb-1~Z$201.5mill.

ObDg.$422.9ml.
PId Stock None
Common Stock 28.250,600sharvs

uaf4l271OJ
(lncllldes4.725,OOOCIiusAslIIs.E)
IIARKET CAP: S500 m1llon (Small Cap)
CURRENTPOSrmN
z001
2002 3iJOm

ll1l~

1.08
1.82 1.84
12.59 13.42 1.36
Z8.61
13.1 21.6 11.7
.n 1.42 .18
3.3'1. 2.1\
3.7Y.
n2.1
13.3%
246
.
422
39.9%
5.8%
243.5
17.5
361.0
11.3'1.
11.7'4
6.6"
44'1.

1'61.4
13.0\
""'.
L.I.O
43.5
39.8'
5.1'
231.8
11.1
384.0
11.2\
11.41
6.3\

44\

903.0
12.2'
........
=..,
47.8
40.5%
5.3'1.
232.0
".6
4112
11.6'4
11.6'4
6.6'4
43\

1.99 2.1.
2.32 2.41
2.39
15.80 11.11 18.35 19.82 11.92
.69
.4
11.7 142
15.9
13.7 10.3
.13
.82
.83
.18
.61
3.0'1. 2.4% 2.6% 3.2'1. 6.1%

155.9

CumtnlAsssts

182.5
74.0
69.9
4902

Aab. Pe)'llble
Debt Du.

34.9
.6

vu,,",

140.2

60.2
53.4

392.1

34"

367

541

630

632
41.4\
6.n.
2592
4.6
453.3
119'1.
13.9'4
8.11
35'1.

66.9
39.7Y.
6.9\
271.8
4.&
487.9
13.6%
13.7%

59.6
40.4%
4.3%
343.4
234.1
521.0
B.B'4
11.4'1.

9.0%

6.9"4
40"

55.7
31.1'1.
4.~
363.1
203.5
S<t1.7
8.4'4
10J'4
5.7'4
44'1.

,SJ

34'1.

548

351.9
24.6

Liab.

.2

,:::

~1

'"7

_.

110
1.0%
5D.a

36.'
27.7 352
.1.
35.4'1. 39.4'1. 38.2'1. 40.0%
2.9% 2.3% 3.4'1.
"'"
310.1 362.9 289.1
ZJO
202.9 202.3 200.0
175
..942 415.3 319.0
.JOO
6.1% 5.5'40 8.0% 1.5%
7.4\
6.7% 11.0'
1.0%
2.3'4
.6'4
2.9'4
NIF
69%
91'4
7""
N.=

Rsgistl!f Cornpsny is a manlJfacbnr or


bullI'18SI brms, pres5lft sensitw. ~bels, phone carIb. and provi:le5 docwnenl.managennt 'Il thB heai:hc... Iin8ncil~ Md generalbusinessm .....
11l.mmpan,oplillilltBsthmughfowprvnary
dPli5iJns:OOQlnwrtMBnagsnsnl:,Funment Servi::es. Label Sc*l
tilns,.nd Smartworks. Sold CcmnunbD. 4199.AcqIWed Uarco

17.;;;;;:;:;;:;'::=--::::7==:=:;'::;:;-;;:;::=:-1

tD".

Difficult business conditions


are HkeIy to continue
to hurt Standard Register. Cutbacks in ClWTV'll'3te spending will
Ukely oontlnue as flnns struggle to remain
profitable in this tough environment. This
wUI probably lead to continued ext:ess ca
padt.y and prtCin,Lpressure in the office-

1050 RlWllu_(WIA
....

.15
1"%

1J50
12.5%

~_I"'.I ....

n.O% ODIrdnail..
--

'1.

.........

n. NoII'rDt1II",ln

....

.co.n

.0%

IncolIITuRnt
15% NIt Prvlt I..,.

t'"

JZO Workinl CIp'I($nII)


415
115 1.arNI.TImIDlbt/Jain
175
325 Shr. Equi1y (WI
..25
1.0% RnmonTGlIIIC.y1 11.51
12.01 RltlmonShr.Eatitw 1151
1'"'
R.taInId to Com Eq
'.B
70% AlDiv'dltlNtlPraf

Inc., 12197,
InSystBms.7m...Has about 5,1181
~;
sharehc*Sen. Family held Wsts own 51'4 of !he lDmIJfI

""'

3,150

sb::It;
Offian & direclcn awn 3.5% 01thB l:OITI1IOI'l dIx:l ~
PIuxy).
Channan:
P.ul H. Granmw. CEO: Oennil L Redbr. Inmrpor.ded:
Ohi). Addl8sl: 600 Allah) She!:. Dayton,OH45401.
T.I.: 9J7","3-1000.11'IIIIrnIlt.: WWW.slaI.llllrcngAlr.IXlITI.

tal Scripts Phannacy product has enjoyed.


from
three
national
dnlg-st.ore
ANNUALRATES Pat
Pas1 Est'd ""QZ
chains. The arrangement should
start
to
af~lP-1tI1
1Un.
SIn.
Re'Mnues
5.5%
5.0'4
1.5X
contribute next quarter.
We believe these
"CashFlaw"
4.0'4 -2.0% 8.~
initiatives will help lift the top Une later
E.rTIilgs
10.5% ".0X
this year. and in 2004.
The
company
will take
additional
"""'
__
rRmMIES(l""
f.f
supply Industry.
a amsequence, Stan- cost-<:uttlng steps to help mend ailing
l.....
r lu.Per Jln.Ptr Sep.PerDee.P. Fylacal
.. ,
dard's revenues and margins will invariabmargins.
SR reported
surprisingly
poor
h'ii~-F."";:-=;;;:;7-':;~-T.;;:+"~~
ly suffer in the near t.erm.
bottom-line results In the recent quarter,
ZDOII 3142 321.1 303.9 326.6 1265.8 Some economic
improvement
in the due to an unexpect.edJy
high pension
ex2101 317.6 315.0 278.1 285.7 1196.4 second half of the year does appear
in pense
and still-elevated fixed costs. In an
_
263.8 253.5 '1S1.7 257.8 1028.1
2003 236.0 240
245 24'
17a
the cards. however. Business activity
attempt to reverse losses. SR plans t.oclose
2llO4 15$ III
115 17D '.50
should pick up In the coming 9"arters. we several warehouses and eliminate roughly
=nl

1~::

30.9
2.6

54.2
54.7

1.00
Uti
1.00 Cap' s,.nding J* Ih
11.33 10.35 10.15 BDokYllulplrlh
28.15 Z8.50
Zl.5D
QfIIIOft 51ts
till!
20.7 ~~
__
A'IIAnn'IP"KDO
1.13
~ u.
RIllttnPIERdo
3.6"
.....
AYSIAnn' Dtv'd YIIIcI

9404.0 965.1 1396.9 1326.1 1265.8 1196.4 1028.1


15.2% 15.3' 12.0% 11.8\ U~
8.5% 11.1%

163.8 122.6 102.8 BUSINESS:


The Standard

Ca sli,.."..,..,
Receivables
~~b,
(UFO)

.93
15.03
21.63
172
.88
5.4"

US
1.0
1.1.
'150

_.,....

=~:U8 ~~~_~~~J~

FJ~

=;e~~
~~~~

EMMNGSPERSHARE411

=~t~

O:h~~~'":~t
t.~
=d~-:~d~~~~hSO~~o
reduction efforts.
year, we still look for very sUm'Jro8ts
in
1.33 Expansion opportunities
will
proba2003. Greater
annual
savings
roughly
1.00 bly also come from acquisitions
and
$0.60 a share starting next year, combined.
d':
4:
.23
~
1.23. product. development.
The oompany ac- with a recovering top line, 5;hou1d yield
2014 :28
.JO
::
~
1:~ quired assets to bolster the capabilities of substantially
better results In 2004.
Fiscal QUARTERLY
DrtlIENDSPAII
C
ful
its eb1..lSiness consulting ~
on-demand
These
shares
bold little appeal.
AI1.31 Jun. SIp. Dec.31 F~=, prlntlng
operatlons. AppUcatlons of Its though
management
appears
serious
new SMARTworks software engine will
about.
the bottom line. until a
,.
12
.22
.22
..22
.88 probably win additi~nal business for the meanin
Improvement Is evident.., we
prlnt-on-demand service. Too, last year's expect
tandard Register st.ock to be an
Elida Ilar.P.rJuD.PerS,p.PerDK.P.
2IIlIO
.32
.38
~1
.32
2011 .22
..22
.06 .50

~
Vur

wins

=
= :~ ~ ~ ~ :~~~~~r:

Eg

l:

::

..~

.23

23

~~ini:

.92

sl~1

CAI FISI:;8I)'1l11' ends 011 SUnday cbsestm Decentv 3111.


CBJ DiUed e.ni1g!l. Bas8:f on iIYSJ. slls.
ltmugh fiscal1997.Exd. nome. gak1(bsses);

r:s~~~~,s~~

July 18, 2003

~~~~r;r.

'90. (31~); '92, (47~); '99, 54j; '00, ($2.39); '01, datIlllllltAug.
Orv'd. ~nl da8I about: March
Comp.ny'sFIn.ndlll
.....
($2.70~ ill, (9). Next egs. ntpcn due Illta 7th, June 7th, September 7th, eec.nber 8th.
Stach. Price stabllty
July.
Inmlions.
Pra GrDWtIIPwsiItIIttCI
tCI Nex1 diw'idend meemg lata July. Nlu:t lilt EJ Class A shares have fM'l votes 8iIdI
E.ml.... PIWdldablItJ
ID 2[11]. 'AllIe li'e I'utIIsIIKIg. lilt. AI ri;lts~.
Fldl.lllllMlillilil i5 olUrrd rn- SIUU'S t*WId hi be niIIlIe.-:l
is p1MIIelI
_MWIIieS ~ III]' tnd. __
THEPUBuSHERISM>TRESPON$lBL.[lORIoHYERRORSOROMIS5lClHSHEJl:EI\I.Ttiuublim"l55R1yb.tlscritB's-.a.lIl111
id8nII_.NOpl!l
I
I
I',

~1"'''''''''lI!5OlII.sII:ftllll"~~1'I1lfJ

glJI

ID)

l'ildlri::lI"lIIlIIb!a.

lI"usedlar

II"

.1IUIiwJ"~

II"

~~SII'IU"

B+
75

30
60
: II:

11-,

STEAK N SHAKE NYSE.SNS

lIIEUIlESS
SAFElY

3 RIi5ed 5I1Wl
3 "'".,..
3 ....."'..,

1.7

iiW.O:~l~

5.1

3.7

4.3

".27 .

18.8

'.1

. 3

Anh'ITo1aI

Galn~1

11.2

SOigll

12.0

11.13

15.9

'.3

6.'

'.7

14.5

5 "'~

-- .. ..

1111

1111110

...,.

II'

..

46

....

traded

.:1

...

...

..

CURRENt

POSITION

Ca~~

"""""'tiles

_(FIFO)
Othor
Cul'Tllnl. ASSIlIs
A1:;t;DPayal*l

De""""

2001

4l1l1I3

5 .
3.0
.2
4.'

34.2

---;n

10.2
2.6
5.4
4.7
22..

14.0

14.7

15.6

12.2
13.1

5.2
3.7

8.6
25~
49.7
39.0
Pat Est'd .... .2
ANNUAL RATES Pat
H...
ol .... tpo- .. )
1'T"
Ro .......
13.0%
,.5"
7.5"
''Cash Flow"
10.0%
7.5%
11.0%
Eami'1gs
10.OK.
9.0%
.5"
DiYi:lends
/07
-- 19.5%- . a5"
Book ValUB
17~%
0!IM0
Cumm:l.Wab.

--

4.'

7.2

~;

......

QUAR1BII.YREYENIJES
II011) A
DoO.Por IIu.Por Jon.Po' Sop.P"
89.3 117.8
m.8
tOU
Z811 96.' 135.8 106.5 109.1
101.1 140.8 108.9 110.0
102.5 150.2
111.3
2I1lI4 '01
'21 125
FIKaI
EAIUiIIOIPER 5111RE"
Y.,
E"* Oec.Per IIar.Per Jun.Per SepPt
.20
.21
.17
.'8
2101
.14
.21
.21
.20
2IQ2D
.23
.14
.23
.23
21103
.13
.25
.15
.15
.15
.3
.3
.JO
QUARTERLY
ONllENl1SPAIl
CII.ndar IIlr.31 JudO
StD.30 Det.31
1.
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
21101
8BNG PAID
F1....

Y.,

E....

'" '"

(A) F~r......... OsIWod. ;, Sept 2nd

,.,
,_
Y.,

4lJ8.7
.... 0
460.8
"I
5CIIl

,_
Y.,
F.,

.7'
.76
.83
.II
I.DO
F.,

Y.,

1" .

..

1994
1995
9.15
7.41
.79
.66
.42

..

124
1.19
15.53

9.'
.54

..

1611
13.6%
'.9
72
36.7%

U%
dS.1
36.1
19.1

17.0'1.

36.""
36.41

..

1996

..... ..... .....


1.'9
!2

1.67
1.66
15."
115
.84

1.75
219
26."
16.5
1.03

1.83
3.26
28.54
16.5
.96

till.1

229.4
14.3..

14,811.

..

13.9%
7.0
10.0
31.8%
5.3'
d1H

28.3
426
16.5'1.
235%
235%

..

..

I.'

13.0
31.8'

.."

d222
36.0
51.8
15.6"

"6%

""--

.,

..

a02D 2003
17.09
11.10
1.1
1.71
.13
.11
.HI
IS!
UO
1.32
.20
1.15
5!9
Z7.DO
28.17 16.96
11.0
15.'
.83
.56

1998
1999
2001
1997
2000
9.411 10.18
12.47
14.04
15.90
1.15
1.11
1.33
1.39
.7
.59
.67
.67
.76

..

tn
3J8
28.99
19.3

2682
10.7
162
36.1%
6.'"
d18~
34.6
93.0
14."

11.""
11.41

..

..

..

128
4.61
29.38

2.52
'.23
29.10
126
.82

".
1.26

"00
..

..

..

312.6
14.7%
126
19.7
36J%
U%
.6
312
115.4
1.42"
17.1%

366.5
12.1%
14.1
35.0%
5.4%
d16.5
272
135.5
12.8'
1'.6%

17.1'"

14.61

19.!

..

..

..

406.7
126%
16.4
22.3
35.4%
5.6%
d22.6
40.1
1521
12.11

14.7%
14.1'tt

..

BUSINESS: The Steak. n Shake Company (fmnerly Consolidated


Produds) op&rdls 409 kJw1ri:ed casual doing restMnnb (i'ld.
56 bnchiMld) in 191Mtw8St and SE ItDrs (12102}. Uno~. abt.
3,800 Iqllln 1981, and .. typically DplMl 24 IIcxn iI diy, seven
days. week. Trad~ionallinilBd menu indo 1tBaklu'gers, ctlicbn,
fries, and snakes (~. chect abDul. $6.00). DisconIInuIId specillty

..

..

..

448.0
12.0%
t7~
21.8
35.7%
4.9%
114.8
29.7
165.8
11.7%
13.1%
13.'1

.... 8
15.9%
23.1
23.1
35.9%
5.'"
d31.7
173.0
167.1
7.2'\
13.8'
13.8'

--

.".

-,.:
;:;;

..

US
'86"
W
2>.0

n.OlI
'-""

d2>.O

~.1

"

5OC1 RIWIlUls ($II1II)


......
186" 0-....

:U Dtpoci_tlnll/

PrDfiiw,'

Z7~ Not
Jt.0lI InClnl Tu RaIl
N.. _
.....

.." 1.a'll;:: ~I\_


(In-'

d45.0 WorkIn, Cop'1


175
.10
195 Shr.E
W
RIbn an lobi Cap'
'.0lI
14.11" 1<0lI R_ ...SIv.E .....
1l.M'
1t0ll Rlfailld ill em Eq
HI AI DWels to H.t PraI
HI

..'"

115
17-'"

....

38.0
4li.0lI
lOll
d55.0
175
130
10.5"
f'.",

1<'"

'"

remunnts in '00. '02 depRlC.. l'BI:e,U'I.. H8I llbl 20,000 MlPIoy.,


2,930 shrhIdl!!lS. d record. Ot'fJdir. own 1B.1% or CDmlOIl, n:L
E.W. IClIIey, 6.6%: CapUI Resean:h, 6.3% (1202 Pn:ay). CEO:
Alan B. Glman. Pres.. & COO: P8t8r Dunn. Inc.: IN. Addr.: 500
CliIntury Bldg., 36 50IJIh Pennsytvania ShBl, Indianapolis, IN
46204. Tel: 317-633-4100. 1__
www.saknshakll.CDfI1.

!,_;
...........
"""
'iO,"" _. IS...~ 1;--..
_.0

...-

.....
.... .....
.....
....
t

Steak n Shake has been facing in- west markets. 1h1s effort will be led by
creased cOI:retltion.
The chaJn is a new President and COO Peter Dunn, who
blend of casu
(table dining with service) has noteworthy previous marketing expeand fast food (the average check Is 56.(0). rtence. Other efforts will focus on improvand thus is facing stepped-up competitive Ing customer hospitality and optlmlzlng
challenges from players in both segments the menu witb better values. Also, Steak n
of the restaurant industry. Moreover. un- Shake wlU accept credit cards In more
even trends In consumer spending and markets In hopes of attraetlng a wider cusmanagement's ded.sion to cut back. on ag- tomer base and expanding the average
gresstve marketing have contributed to a check. These costly programs
will cut
spotty sales gerformance in the past. The pressure on margins, but the currently ow
recent perlo shows some improvement., commodity price environment suggests
however. Comparable-store sales grew that savings will largely olf.. t the higher
2.3%, with guest traffic up sltghtly and a marketing expenditures.
opportunities
exist.
2% hike In prices. Too. Industry figures Good expansion
openings
will Ukely be
suggest that business may have picked up but store
pace in April and May. Consumer con- liJnited. while management focuses on
buDding prognun. The
fidence has increased lately. and it looks its unitsales
lIke: the economy will Improve modestly by company now expects to 0nn 1: 5 to 1: 6
Steak n ShaJre urrlts in tlsca 2003, a numyearend.
comparable to last year's modest
Share profits will likely make decent
ber
schedule. Management continues to look
advances despite accelerated
marketfor quallfied franchisees for new openings.
ing efforts. The outlook for earnings
through the current year Is fairly ravor- though none are likely this year.
able, despite a tough operating envtron- Steak n Shake shares. wblch rallied
mentASteak n Shake plans to reinstate its 51% since our March report. have
limited appeal at this time.
marketing program with a special em~.
sis on televisIon advertising in key
d- Warren Thorpe
June 13. 2003

'97.
caI perDd IS16 wD., alliin ... 12 wts. RIIYS. l1l5ttIed kl reIed 6tl WI~n.
cnsts
iIcL fIiInchiS!l fees and other inc. '00 nstalBd aI'". 'B9 excL OII8-time cum. cM'ges for acctg.
"'-04
.. 1e d_ ............
181Pri- "'_(
... )."'
..............
"1...). Et<d.
co ZlIll. Ville tm ~
AI ~
n:seMlI. F M%IIII ruBlIII h. otItairad ...
liI;IlIa'S Ill!iNlI 10 be
TIlfPL8lJSfJl'ISNOTR
SIlU
III.
lit
DdIulL InaId. saed ~

12
10

38.3
12.0
I~.3
23.'
cVAl.lJEUNEPIl8 Ii~ i(,jll
2004
IUD RI'fWIUlS pII' It! A
211
1.1. CIIII Row" per III
150
1.40
"DO EIrMlgl pII' ah
Dlv'ds DHl'd JIll' Ih
HI
1.15
"50 CIp'ISpMt ... per III
815 Bcd. YIIuI per III
'120
Z7.DO ICGllllClll Sh. DutIt'lIc
Z7.DO
11.
1-- AVi Ann'l PIE Ratio
R_MRdo
.ID
~
AVi Ann' Drld YWd
NI
3 ".

I~
11943
l23BO
1992
1993
1988
1989
1991
1987
1990
8.71
10.12
7Jl
7.14
1.39
7.42
.21
.66
.63
.n .69
.50
.54
.74
24
.32
.16
J4
J9
.13
2!
..
..
..
.05
.02
.03
.06
.32
.84
.48
.94
.34
.99
d.33
.14
.70
1.06
1.11
IAl
1.14
13.26
1246
15.79
1223
1249
1278
128'
7J
82
50
8.5
9.'
ti.'
.42
.~
.56
.46
.62
.63
..
..
1,9%
22%
1.71\
19%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 41MB
132'
TeIlIl Delli $175.7 mi. Due In 5 Yrs $34.4 mil
132%
LT InteIBt S12.8 mil.
IT DeblS161.1 mi.
.7
Ind. $145.8 nul Clpl8lzed IeaS8S.D
52
(LT inlenIsI emned: 3.&; kJtBl int8nlst
38J%
(45% olcap~
CUWlI'a!Ie: 3.llx)
l8Ues, UnCip/talDd
Annual rentals $21.9 mil
3.9%
No o.tinld Benll'fil: Pen_Ion Plall
d22
PId stock None
41.0
Cammon Stoct. 27,027,300 shl.
11.1
1.4.9"
(Options exercisable: 7.2%)
46.7%
IIARKET CAP; $375 million (SlnaD Cap)
46.1'"

16

% lOT. RE1UlJI5IDJ

lD2.S
3B

55
12197

""

-~--- ....

,,'

,,'

liS.
1 2 0 1 0 2 1 1 1
Instlt.utional D.cl.lon.

J2

--- ...-

i ~1"'1'1II1
1111'"
....
",
..
.... ..'" .. ~='U;J_
I

.-

tll'I 1I'"

~~~~ZI!lI

Qplt-.010500000

Target Price Range


2006 2007 2008

",.

CCa-r:e. --'s,~

Nil

IItdilll:

12.3

10.3

'.1

10lC0 Oiv 11192


lU.OiY 1""
10'lIo DiY lZl"J4
,.". Oiv 12.")5
la Oiv 1"1
5-101'-4 spiI 12m

(+75% Retlim
16"
(+5%
2%
In51d_r o.c:lskln.
J A SO"
D J f
II""
000000000

l%'

4.3
2.'

DIV'D
158('
....,17.1)

141 ~~O.94YID

LEGENDS
_
9.51~.lfIF"'p!lll

TECHNICAl.
IETA .15 (1m.~
2......
PROJECT1ON.~.
25
15

f
RAm

35

High:
Low;

I~14231r

fmm ,"","".
'00. IU C""P'"n''''-'''''''''
egs. dUB liIta AIIg. (C) In mR, adj. for
Silicic's !tell Stability
stldl. div'ds. al'ld .pits. ID) R8stIIsd b reflect
Prlot Gn:rwth
<!tango .......
_ . 02............
3. ~
reIiItIIe .. & pori:Ied wIIIIlIlI nnnlits fI
liJd.

- - -

ORMY[llIl:ORSOSlOMISSIOHSHJ:R(W.JIiis.~sshtJ''''!IIb5I::Jb(s-..an
iI
'.
'*dIIri:. CIIlIB .....
u.l_
'.

_.

NaxI

......

.-.lIIIi:

..........

8*

75
70

Pwsnnc.

~,Lpall

use.
IIIIC.

llllacl

,'.

:11:

II'.

I~~cr
16.471~ro8.7(~~~;I~O~J%0.54tD

SUPERVAlU
INC. NYSE.sw
5

lWEUNESS

LlM!tt:lIY2!IDJ High:

TfCHNJCAl.
BElA

.II)

1"1'

.co

(+1045%'

~""1.

25

("'50%1

S/UIJ" -

2'"
15"

t"111111I1

Insider Decisiona
~ ~ ~

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~~

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

'"

1.05

1.61

2.12

1.75

1.83

1.92

1.92

8.81
1 .1

8.46

8.91

9.73
.6

9.94

16.0
1.07

1L7
1.05

".6
1.03

1':".91 1<>
!2

121
J.

13..
J9

lH
.81

12.1
!1

11.5

1.8%

2.0\

2.1%

2.5%

2.6%

2.7%

LT DebtS2019.7 mil. LT Interest Sl10.0 mil.


Ind. $Bll mi. am.ani.j4.S%ZBfO-a)IIP.
deb.
f'31l CORY' lII:9.&434l1ihs.., ~11Q-1-G6; $533.4
mI cap. IBases. EI'd1s S8S mil. 5)'11. lea,",. (LT
emd:4.7x;b:llcuY.:4.5x1
(50%ofcap'~
uasa, Uru:apitlliDd Annual rentals $136.8 nd.
Penalon
PIlI
Stockliability
None None
CClIIIIIIonSt/r 133,688,277 shs.
as 01 1Z12&'D2.
Options EnrQaable 6%
IlARKET CAP: 12.2 bill. (Mid C.pl
CURRENTPOSrTMJN
ZOOO 2001
Ca:'~
reDiilivil~FO)
B::'ry
Current. AssBt5
Acds PBYllb..
Debt Due

10.4
~~
1~48:3
2091.7
1396.0
633.7

00.
Current.li8b.

311.5 1701.5
304.5
23412

122
1~g
78:0
1013.1
383.9

302.0
1525-3

tD~:

EsYd ... O'

Put
8.0%
8.0%
3.0%
9.0%

8.0%
6.0%
6.0%
S.,",

5.5"
1.CJ'K,
8.~
7.-",

QlJAR_YSAW~IIIl)'

'_A.

''''

RK':II

FIb'"

IInP,rSell,PerDtc..r

4340f 4553f
4475 47aD
&135 4700 4ND
EARN!NGSPERSHARE

Y.. -

~13

4775 1NDCI

rsl"siI

19160

5025
... II

20100

IInPII'Se .PerDec.Ptr FebP,


.53
.43
.36
.46
.45
.39
.44
.52

..
1.78
1.80

ieD.F

fill
~

= .~.: .: ;

,~~r

ZOO4 :51

:.fI

:52

Jun.30

SeD.30

.&2

QUARTERLYDIVI>ENDSPAID
c.

liar."

1191

.133

.133

= :~~

Dedi
.135 .135

2DOO .135 .135 .138


2DOl .138 .138 .14
.1e

2006

2007

.143

Rlm~

2008

40

.1'1._- -----

3.3'

3.3'

2.7%

16!J64 15485

16552

17201

17421

3.5%
186.3
185.3

3.31
198.7
161.9

3.7%
232.1

3.11.
2:10.1
1771

3.7%
23H
191.3

3.2'A

338.9
1263..0
1215.5

11931

9.9'10
3211,

7.9'10

12161

8.4\

13.6\
13.1\
8.1'10 8.3\
40'
40%

.n

1150

13.5
.75

3.03
13.53

2.5'

1.21

",.

32
24

--

20
16

'II

lill"

12.'
.68

2.7"

19160
4.S

154.9
1260.7

60.6
1246.3

1307.4

1201.9

1305.6

31'1.

d332.0
1953.7

2359

...

4D.2io

.138
.1'
.143

fA) FISCal,... ends IiISt SaUday iI Feb. at'


tDlDwing year. IntMn PIlriDdsal1l 18, 12, 12.
end 12 'MlBks. (BI Bned on avtngB sharel
ttwough '96, then diiltBd. Exclucle!i 1IDIftCIII"IP ZOO]. ~
IiIe PutItWwa. Inc. M rJlII'8 nsrrred.

4Ll.2'

1.0'
11%
11249.5 d97.5
2008.5 1875.9

s1on::s-

islg

R_

nlER...
PII,R...

215

315

UO DlpKidon($nI"j

ZIO

300 NIiPraI1rsdl

37.0%
1.3'
122.1
2019.7

1"
.80
2,'"

191DO 2DIDD S&Iu($nIiI,'"


(7%
(7" 0 ..
Ii..

2510

1B21.5 1793.5 1916.7 20091


1.6%
l'.8%
lO%
14.7"
12.7\
13.2% 12.6"
12.8%
9.8%
9.1%
9.1'1.
B.1% 5.0%
3311J. 29'
3111J.
31'4
JQ%

U1f}D
4.'"
oW
JI5

37.0% Inanl Tu RD
1.4" NIIProI1Ibra1n
21G
110 Worling tIp'l (lnl)
117G
1720 .....
I -.T
... DIbt (t--.
'11
.. -,
U1G
2420 Sin.
t5%
'.0% RnnanTobiCIp"

37.""

1.4"

7.7"

9.-4'

,U5
21ZO
Ul.1D

A.'11 AnnHliY'd Yllld

2.9%

343.B

130 CIp'I~ap'l'Ih
17.10 Bld:Yllulpwlh
/XI CCIIDOrISha

......

20909
4.41
340.8
24(17

US
1US
1

11.1 ~~
__
.60
::;; ....
_

3.3%

231.1
1420.6

"--4'

10J
.55

23194
-4.0"

1.1%

8.3'10
38%

9.'
.61

1.1(1
15.00
1

2.7%

39.5% 40.11.
UI.
UI.

B.D"1I 9.3%
13.4' 14.11

2.20

20039
3.9'4
2n.1
232.0

39.21
1.~

31.6%

3.00

13..55 14.42
1
7 1

BUStiESS: SUPERVALU INC. is the nlltDn's second IargesI fcod


wholesalar, supplying I.pprolIma.1y
4.256 sbes, and is '-ve
foocIl1ltailllr,wIh rwghIy 634 sD8I (pri:8 sUPllfSb'es,I~
as~n1
and. IUpsmarksb). R~ues
~ operating -.nt1Qs III \12: OinillADlI; $9.3 bil, $172 mil; Mail; S9.S bl1.,.$C37
mi1. Acquired Rich10cd &'99. DMIsbId ShopKD stns 1197. '01

91.5
1647.4
1081.7
141.t!

200Z tiiij.

...
ZODD
2001

12.6

2.00

15937

37.0'

29.2

2003

Ii.:a

14.8

1~1

T6Oi1i

1'~~ 5J~%

3.6%
2191
166'4
...
31.7% 31.8\
1.K
1.~
1991
227.0
1459.8 14456

mzm:

= = ~ :~= =

201M
~

12.6

10.82
1 11

15.'
.80
2:a

8.9'4
14.5'

I-.:::=~':::O==--=-.::.='-=-'=:O:-'c:'::::-:::.j

8...

Price

11.8

1.10

V...

Target

16.8

12

7.11

......

17.0

",.""

U6

''Cash ADW"
E!lr:nklgs
DIVidends
8oc* Vstue

30.8

6.51

PBf

24.1

5.19
17

ANNUAl. RATES

22.9

1.40

~C:lIlI(plI"1II1

3.5%

2B.9

48

1.48
1

28.9
202

64

nblPs I~

CAPITAL STRUCTURE uaf2l2aJ


Total Debt$2161.3mil. Dutiln 5 Yrs $865 mil.

14.1

5.20

4.53
1~.4:l

21.1

Il~g2,,..,,-.
+=4~""'1---I---+-4--f----+-+--l--t--+-4--1--+-4--t--:.

_lay

1.43

16.5

OIIlions. Yes

PRuJECTlONS
~~~
GIkI
Reun

LtM

16.4

~:.,~t SIRI1g1l

l,f.;,:,

PrIu

"'"

20.1

r LEGENDS
Ul.-CI!IIIra."p5h

{1.DD-MIIUQ

2Q06.08

18.9

I -!,Low~'d;;;""Lll.,,-7.L-,,14""o.L_{11.0
11.3 13.6

3 Lomeli mm
3 RM tI2SII3

SAfElY

17.4

12..5"

1.0"
.M

115% Rnm an Shr. E~


l",
RniMd III Can Eq
2ft AllDiv'dllitoNdProl

11,'"

1.1"
175

117tJ
3175

10.'"
115%

..,%
21%

dep. rate: 9.0%. Has 57,400 emplayees, appruQ1lllBly 38,300


~.
0Ii:Brs & Diredln own 2.8% 01 COIl'ITlDn; Ailnca
Capilal Mana)~
LP., B.4~: s.aaraCEOG~~,
8.-4%
(.w2 Prmy .... "ailman, PI1ISident &
: .........., """,lB. Inc.:
DeL. Add.; 11&40 Vdra,. V8W Road. fiNn Prai"it, UN 553f0. Tel;
952-828-4000. 1n1emst:www.~umm.

SUPER""U
"_d
in a very
,y~
15 opera .....
"6
po In, chal n. All told re tail square.or ota ge
tough envtrOnment.
The difficult eco- increased by roughly 6% In the last fiscal
nomic dmes have caused consumers to year (ended February 22. 2003). It also excurtail spending, and when they do shop panded the range of products offered at Its
they tend to trade down to less expensive Save-A-Lot chain or llmlted assortment
goods. That has curbed the company's top- outlets to include genel"al merchandise
an d .b 0 tt om-li ne 8ro wth . Wh a t's more. I' ems an d open ed or conYerted 35 s t ores
theres been little. If any. inflation of food that combine Save-A-Lot-s food offertngs
prices. severely limiting this automatic
and
Deals' general merchandise. In the
booster of sales.
Finally: always toUgh
current 12-month stretch. the company
competition has been getting worse. and
plans to open 75-100 Save-A-Lot combinathe resulting pricing pressures
have been tion stores and eight to 12 larger
outlets.
depressing the top line. Making
matters
Too, the company continues to work to
worse. on the expense side of the ledger. contain costs and to improve effidency by
employee be~fit costs. notably for health- consolidating distribution centers and Incare.
workers compensation, and pensions stalling
updated technology.: FInall,y. Jt Js
have been rising. Note that SUPERVALU
attempting to move into the logistics busichanged the way it presents revenues re- ness, where it might manage disU1bution
lated to direct store delivery facilUative for other busInesses.
offering services
:such
services. whJch lowers revenues but has no as warehouse and transportation
manageeffect on cash flow and earnings. We've ment and infonnaUon technology and purrevised figures
for the first three quarters
chasing support.
of flscal 2002 to reflect the change.
There
is limited
invesbnent
appeal
But the giant food distributor
is fighthere.
however. The issue isn't timely
ing back. For starters SUPERVALU
is
(Rank: 5, Lowest). although the stock. does
adding to Its retail ~.
The store count have decent rebound potential for the 3- to
was up 157 last year. including the aequ!- 5-year haul.
sitlon of the Deals 45-store single-prlceGeorge A. Niemond
May 9.2003

i~
1.20

~=r
.sc
.55
.56
57

ring gans (Ios!m~'91, 25; '94, 84; "97, 82;


W, 11~; '00, ($1.16~ "01, 27. N&xI &.-n1Jga
reporI &any July. eC) Nul dividend mBIIIing
Ia1e June. Next ex date IaIB Ma,. Dividend payFldUIl Ntcrill
k. atmned rn. _
bIIitlItII 10 be

men1 dll1es: 15th of March, June, Sept., Da::.. CClI!Ipann Fnandal Shnglh
Dividend rein.esb l1 ptim. CDI Includes III StDck'.I5I1C1StablIty
t8ngiblM. In 2001, $11.52
In mlPrb Growth P'lI~
iDn .. adjusiMi for spit (F) R
'.
_Earnings PrwdietablltJ
r1IiIbIe II1I:I is puwidll!ll ....... nnwlIie5 aI 8ITJ kill!.

THEf'UBUSlRI5MJ'R~tDRNrrRR(JRSOROIIISSION'SliE1lflli".n.plllllfi;lUlnGslrdJbsutlsaiDen_'_="_"~n~use.NOpM
0(1111)' lie IIpad1a6. mciI, .... 1Ill D1......
iRlIlJ ........
DI _
...
DI aIIll b 911B*1J. ~
IIIJ prWaI .1iIcNE

B++
15
30
95

::a,.... C,

poIlII:*In.

..u II

,.1llIUd.

".

:".

I'.

THORNBURG
MTG. NYSE.!KAI
2

lW,EUNESS

wm

3
3

TECHNICAl.
8m.

=~~
Hig~:

17~

llIIl'fell1nMl3

PROJECTIONS
Price
Gain

24.6

18.5

7.4

14.1

15.9

5.8

7.3

7%;'

p,.

.,

.." 0 1000000 0 .\

'.::.n

102:

a:

1Q2~~
~=1

:::"1

10~

,~

1~

I,

I'" /'

"'I

.11 -.

'..,

II...,

=tlIdt:

':

12.2.
74.0'4
2.6
21.3%
1364.4
1186.1
17tl.3

as of 31311113

"mCa'O

(92
Lusts, Uncapib.IizRd None
No Detlnlld Benllfil: Pension Plan

P1dStock$65.8mil..
PfdDlY'd$6.7mi.
2,760,000 stIs9.6S%C!n.;sachcunv.into
emman $25 a Sh.

(1%ofGap'0

~~~=Yield

Cap)

(lIId

16.2

19.4

~.'.".'

I,.

'II,

If"

./
I

,J

?f'" '" 11111,1'

."

:~

Target Pric. R.nge


2006 2007 200a

50

--

"

":j'~

li;t-_"-,-"I't---t---t--t--+--+-15

.
+--+--1--+--+--+--+-10

%T01.REl\IRIIIIDJ
TItS
LAImL

J..:

.
12.5'
4.8%

..
6.8\
2.3'4

_.
8.0%
2.1%

.19%

.68%

.52%

1.0
..
8.1%
3.3'
.93%

.9

7.6'
3.2'4
.sa%

.
7.2%
2.8'4
.52%

r-

~~:

1999 2000 2001


201.30 191.89 1n12
.88 I.OS 2.09
.92
.94
2.00
11.40 11.67 14.02
21.49 21.l7 33.31
29.1'4 14.1"
14.1%
10.5
8.1
7.0
.60
.53
.36
10.0% 11.''4
13.6'4

2.0

2.9

7.1%
2.2'4
.58'4

1.2

.
7.6'
2.3'4
.70'4

_7.5
' -

yr. s:: ~ ~

...

I
1995 1996 1997 1998
163.68 168.19 228.73 198.62
.88 1.73 1.94
.15
.93
1.65 1.97
.91
13.16 13.70 14.42 11.45
12.19 1622 ZO.Z8 21.49
7.'"
22.4", 48.5'4 -4.7%
14.3
9.5
10.8
16.4
.96
$
.62
.86
7.4'4 10.01
9.4'4 1.4'4

3D
25
2D

'S"

_~"1"3

84.8 116.0 152.9 248.9 286.8 260.4 290.0


84.6\ 88.9'4 79.3'4 79.8'4 89.3% 86.9'4 87.3'4
11.9
10.5
25.7
41.4
22.7
25.6
29.2
14.0\
9.1% 16.8'4 16.6'4 7.9"
9.8'4 10.1%
1751.8 2018.0 2755.4 4691.1 4344.6 4376.0 4190.2
1618.4 1799.3 2413.3 4280.2 3996.4 3930.5 3n4.1
120.0 160.5 'l121 358.2 311.8 310.9 317.5

......
.
_.

1shof

Common Stock 59,568,31 1 SM.


IU of 5114103
bllioll

" "I' ~

._ .. "~_'

4 ~
Thornburg Mortgage, Ino. began opera- 1993 1994
lions on June 25, 1993 under the name 116.12 146.13
Thornburg Mortgage Asset Coip. The com.36
1.02
pany ~sued 5.5 million shares at $15 a
.29
1.00
share in its IPO. The lead underwriters were
14.50 10.19
Montgomery
Securities
and
Kidder 1m
11.77
Peabody. A second public offering in 1993,
9.1'4 9.3\
of flYe million shares, netted the company
22.0
13.i!
proceeds of SM.1 mil~on.
1.3ll
.17
3.7'4 1.4\

CAP: 11.1

9.1

... "

(laded

BolTClWlnp $11345.8 mil.

27.5

7.1

II

1111/

000000000
:;.,
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE

21.3

; .~. .-'

,:

Institutional DltCl.lon.

21.5

"

8.8%

~;:

9.8

11A

""R~ -:

Hillh
35
(:t'~D%1 14"
l.CI'lI'
2S
t-10%
Insider Decisions

MARKET

21.5

OC~d':.UIllc.'r'~zitwI

.75 ('l.m~Ib"'!Il)

0,.111
.5"

15.9

f- LEGENDS

NN'll2tim

20~1

I~27.151~1ll10.1(~~:~nW"J%O.581~

I 17.8
=~~LOW='L,,'4,,-.1LL..,'8.8

RK.ellIilWZ

~.~
~~
2002 2003 201M cVlI.lJElaPIIB.IIC.
~I
195.88 HUG 2IU5 MOftgagelOMlplnb
2H.DO
2.59
2.70
17. Eaming.por""
110
2.29
VI
140 Dft'd.Ood'dpor"'''''t
170
14.54 1UtJ
11.15 Boti Nllltpll'ltI
1UO
52.76 11.50 7~/JD C.... "'Sh.~1It'9c
15./JD
38.4"
PnmiIllllDy.BoaIt
M
1.6
AYIIAnn'lPIERria
11D
.'2
-. _.....
R_
PIERaIo
....
11.6"
-.Ii
Avg AnnHliY'd ytlkl
I.n

8I:lIdfill"'_

278.6 403..5
71.7'4 60.5'4
58.5 120.0
21.0'4 29.7'4
~.6
1Df.12.9
5211.7 8412.8
532.7 833.0
.1'4
.1'4
.7

589.6 230S.0
9.2% 7.9'
6.6% 9.4'
1.01% 1.14%

515
540 GroulncQr .. ($mI8)
57.",
55.5" lilt Cost 10Grou IN:
115
115 NIt~~
J10%
u.", N.tPrufl.....
1700D 2000tJ TotIIAuItI(NI
1525lt
1m5 BorrowinG;
1145
1140 ShrEw! W
Nil
N' PrablIllAuetiIoLns
Nil
N. loIIPmIsion(S_1II)
_ .
3000
3lJOD N.. la.. Voh".I~J
1.5% 10% stir. Eq.1o ToWAnIts
10.0% 10.0% G&A~1a Grosslnc

rW",'

'25
70.0%
125
U.J%
Z5DOll
UOZ5
1150
-'"
2.0

~K

.J,",

.'"'

RIbn

on TolII AnetI

l50lI

a.~
1.0%

.n

EARNINGS FACTORS

"argln (%)

Yiekl-Cosl. Margin

Net Changes flmlll)


200t
2002
MBS & Other Sec.
1593.1 4630.1
BomJWiJas
1>467.6 4.38:5.7
ANNUAL RATES Past
Dfchange"'lbl
11Yn.

~age

Loans

-_.

1674.2

-4.0%
2.5%
'.5%

7.5"
7.~

7.5"
11.0"

CIILDAIlS~"'l
erldlr IIlr.S1 Jun. 30 SeD.3O Dec. 31
2DOO 4396 4022 4075
4139
2101 4301 '299
5245 5733
2D02 7109 8161 9996 10035
2003 12009 1_
fS75IJ 18750
_
f75IJD fBJ50f_
19750

Cu-

EARlMGSPERSHARE'"

endllr IIlr.31 Jun. 30 SeD.3O Dec. 31


2DOO
.27
.25
.25
.28

2101
2D02
C.,-

.52
.&5
.81
Ji7
.81
.81
.11
.81
.S!
.S!
CNARTERLYDIVIlElllS PAID""t

udilr
1999
2000

IIlr.31 Jan. $e., Dec.31


.23
.23
.23
.23
.23
.23
.23
.25

2003
_

2101
2D02
2103

.42
.62
.81

.25
.55
.685

.46
.63
.S!

.30

.40

.55
.80

.fiI

f-:::=--7"-'--;;'o-'-:-..:..c:'-:-7"---,"':=.;:.;-----:=--';;=-;:-=="'-;'-':..,:::C"''''-,,--.,----.,----l

1715.3

Est'd _'02
......

Past
STn.

Eaml1gs
Divderids
Book Value

3131103

.10
58

F.M
Yur

y..,
1.05
2.09
2.59

170
170

.92
.94
1.45
2.25

on dMsd sh_ outDn:liIg. Next ~ .. z001.


t S1ocIr. purd1u8 plan avaiIbIB.
~P.ny'.
flnandll Shnglll
repm dUll .. Ocklbw. &l*Igs (B) Diviiends nama!". paid II JIJIU.,-, May, (C) In milions.
S1oc:~ Price Sbblily
add dll8 WI roundng or manges II August, Ind NcMmber.
pnc:. Growth p.~
stlns ouI5Ia.nding. ExdudllS 1; nornamnll II{)Ni:Iend ntirtesWnent planrrailable.
EallJlngsPredictabllttJ
o 2OJl. YaIIIe lme I"uI:II5tftI. IIIe. AI ~~.
F.1:IuI1 ~
is muined IrOIII ~
~
tD be r..........
~
....
QllanIn II Irry UId.
(A) B_d
earnllgs

may

no!

OR OIlIISSIOHSHfREW. Thif.~is
Ih:tJ' b' ~~_._
*DiE: .........
lJ IISIIII" lJImllilllJ ......
*-3.., JIIi*d

MJ""'"

THE IUIlJSH[R IS NJT RESPONSIBl..lORNfT [RRO~


~ 1-,
lit replDad.l$lIS." '-...I iI

tulu.atial,

.. ~,.......

1IfImIl~. Noplll
5C1'1ir:e .. ,.adgl1

I'.

: .,:

B+
80
25

45
,

VALMONT INOS. NDQ.v~


I

I~CENT
PRICE

11.4
High:
9.4
3 lDM!led l2113lllZ low:
5.2
6.5
LEC,ENDS
SAFETY
3 ...,"'"'
_
UICI~fkw"p5ll
TECHNICAL 3 _~ "'103
2~:1=M&II~I:s.tngtJ

JTA

.&0

n.oo .....

~':e.

!t)

2Q06.4. PROJE~N.S
Price
35
25

Hi'"
....

....
.....
....::..,

"'.,

iii.

..

,1\.
,,,I

'm'I1,

Iii/

,.

" "
1988 1989

""11"'

Percent

,-.
......

6~
3

36.09
1.10
.69
.11
.82
4.41
Zl51
8.5
.64

(lT iltS1!$l: earned: 9.b.; tlIaI interest coyerage:


S.b)
(37%Df Cap1)
No Defin~ Benefit Pension Plln
pfd Stock None

=~ble

Cammon Stock 23,878,000 5hs.


MARKET CAP: $500 million ISmail Clp)
CURRENT POSrrlON
2002
200'

Ca,\,"~ets

2 .5

Receivables
~ry
(FIFO)

'.5

Assets

...... """..
Salos
"Cash FIow"

56.8
139.0

Pat

--...
CaI-

.... r

2601

21IIl2
2llD3

eo.

Pat
10.0%
10.0%

......
2.'"

5.5"

25%

7.5%
7.0%

Q\IAIlTell.y

32.6
53.
'382

Est'd '00-'02

61...

11Th.
3.5%
11.0%
11.0%

~r:~.
Boot Value

55.2
14.0
71.8
140.8

22.'

CulT8nt Uab.

23.3
132.0
121.1
17.3
293.7
528

294.'

284.6
57.0

Oth.,

3J2Jm

19.5
132.7
120.8
21.9

134.6
109.0

8.'"

7.""

7.5%
7.0%

SALESIIIIiI.)

10.~

F.n

Ibr.Per Jun.Per Sell.Per Dec:Pe


196.'
204.3
208.6
2l77.3
21~

224.9
2329
225.1
UO
US

201.7
209.3
205.5
lOll
21.

Vu,
846.1

222.T
225.9
21ST
ZZ2.7
230

.n4
854.9

.50

075

~PERSHAREAII
Fall
kPe, Ju~Po, So;;;'-; llot.J'~ y""
.38
1.28
.32
.29
.29
2101
.34
.'lI
1.09
.20
.28
2101
.211
.42
.35
1.37
.32

.... r

.,
C~

"

1999

2lllIt
2102
2103

fA)

.40
.30
.30
.30
.33
.42
.32
.33
QIlARTERI.Y
DNIIENOSI\\ID C
Mar.31

.065
.065
.065
.065
.D75

eu.tws

JudO

1.30
UD
FilII

SeD.30

Dlc.31

y""

.065
.065
.065
. 75

.1165
.1165
.065

26
26
26

.D75

.2B

.065
.065
.065
.065
.OTs

"".

25.0

18.5

'''-3

18.3
11.3

,"-,

2Il.7

21.7
13.9

..

.......
. .

25.5
14.1

2"-8
1a.5

26~

22~

13.3%

15~

15.11-

"

..

,"

15\

12.0'

1611

..

....

2003

35.55
210
1.30
.30
.15
11.10

11.7\

24%

12.7%

1.4"

24~

2D~

9.0%

11.110

24~

2fJ~

rJt

11.1.

.......:::

050

2004
3U~

215

..,.

w_

S1OCI<

.2$3
-10.0
".8

C VALlIE UtE I'IJB


Wnpwlh A

~c.

CuIl_p.""

PII' M All
.3Il DlY'd.Dld'd,..-lIh C
.IS
dO>f ". '"
IUS
8~"=
~
1.40

Earnql

C"',.....

...--- ....-..

AYIIMn
R_P/E
....
Ayg Ann'l Dtv'd Y"1IkI

'"

Sal'II~

fU" 0a0nina ... 1n


35.0 31O Dopod:::.l
3!0
34.' Not Prolt InII
Inc:an. Tu RaIl
3L""
'L'"
3.1% NoIProIt._
f50
.......
Cop'
150
fa laIgT ... DobI (100M)
H5
21' Sh'.E ..... '1nlII1
RItum on ToIII ClIp'
9.""
11.5% R.... OlI.... E.....
I~""
RItIIMd II) CII'lI Eq
UlI
ll% All DiY'dllo Nil PraI
1U"

...""

648

115
Us
.40
1./11/
lUO
24.50
f

...

1.4%

'OLIO
fl'"
40.~

50.~
37.01

I"'' .'"

..""
~'" ..'"

f50
131
400
f''''
fUll
10.0%
20lI

BUSINESS: Vamont Indushr.ri, Inc. operates m three induRy segments. Inflastrudunl


(62% d 2002 UM, 50% d op8f8ting incanB): mlk .. stBeI and illLnirun poles b sb&I igllts, tralfl: signab, and electrical hltSll1issDn sfructlnS. AgriDJtture (36';', 43';'):
wur'd's leadng podLlClBl" 01 iTigation lICIuiprnent. 01.'* (2%, -3%).
Acqul8d PiRlXI, :W1; l811~
Standill1l, 1101: Cascade Earll

Sciences, 11198. Ha~ abo1Jt 5,235 ~~


and approxindaly
5,SOD shnholders. Rebert
Daugherty awns 29.9% of a:mron;
oIran and dftdln
(exduding Mr. Daugherty), 8.7% d a:m-ron
(<<13 pmq'~ Cllaiman,
~
,
Mogens BIly. InrorpcnIIld: Delewanl.
Adcha.: One Vammt Pm,
Onaha, HE
68154. Telephone: 402-963-1000.lnIImet.
WWW.vamont.CDIIL

Valmont Industries
turned in strong
results at its Agriculture Products
division. Indeed. this segment's top line
Increased
by about 16%. to $92 million,
year over year. Most of this strength can
be attributed to a favorable pricing environment and dry weather condltJons, espedally In many of the food-growing regions
of the United States. Also. improved agrlcultural markets around the world helped.
bolster sales. We expect the agriculture
business to tun1 in solid results fOI"the
balance of 2003, renec~
low Interest
rates. increased prices for some fann
crops.
and benefits from the U.5. farm bill.
The InfrastnJcture
segment continues
to soften, renecting
a few bad markets. Valmont's wireless-communlcation
business remaIns the bi~est dl"agon sales
and operating rnatgIn.
mpetltlve pricing
and lower volume will likely persist
throughout the year in this field. Another
sore spot appear.; to be the poles dJvisIon.
North American utilities and independent
power prodUceB
have delayed car1tal
projects and ~Ions.
as a result 0 the
economic slo own and high utUity debt
levels. Although our long-tenn outlook

remains favorable (upgrades and expanslons to electrical transmIssJon grids are


inevitable), we expect business to slow further this year. As a result.
Valmont will focus on keeping
eJr,penses
down.
Cost-cuttlng lnitlatives
should help soften the blow somewhat that
In
the competitive pricing envlrorunent
some of the c~Y's
markets and lower
sales volume
Ukely deal to the bottom
line this year. Despite these efforts. we
look for 2003
earnings to fall $0.07
from
2002's
tally, to $1.30 a share.
The company generates
decent c:ash
now. Valmont should be able to repay
some of Us lang-tenn debt and increase Jts
annual dividend. given Its relatively low
capital-spending budget.
There is no need to make a commitment to Vahnont
stock now. Despite
Qur good outlook for the agriculture segment. a continued slump In the wirelesscommtmlcalions business will Ukely keep
pressW1! on the bottom Ilne. Also, the
stock. is trading near our 3- to 5-year Target Price Range. which renders its longtenn appreciation potential below average.
Justin T. Sebastiana
May 2, 2003

ero:

fe, Nllll1 dimem:I meIIIing. rnilJ-JU1lfI, GD8II1X


Iirle June. Apprm.. dividerll payment dates:
15th cI Jan., AfK., Jul, Od.
(D) In mlions, -'jusI9d b lltJdi: spit
rfIIiII* alii i5 fRIi1ed wIIUIl. WIIhI1Iie5 d ~ liYd.
bMnoar's_.~lIIl
............
_.
II-'

(B) PrWn.y NfTIings h'ough 1996, diUEd


tINnIaftw. EJ.ciJdes nornc.urng gain (kisses):
'87, 11,: 111, (44t!); '93, (32,): '96, ('J6t!). N8xt
.-nilgs report due mi:I...lJIy.
reeMllI.. Fldllll IIIIIIN is IIIlIined ImnI _
bItieweII III be

AI ~
SIBLE. OlIN

...

,,...
3,...
,,...

....

15.3"

24
20
12

,..

9.9'

40
32

16

"" 'I"'

,,.

8.1%

- -- --

....

'10 TOT. RET\JRIIII :MIl

fi"

.n

Target Pric. Riln~


.i006 2007 2008

..... - --- -

, I "I
11 III
,I
1993 1994
1995
1996
1997
1998 1999 2000 2001
2002
35.79
19.02 20.43 20.06 23."
22.52 24.53 26.10 3628
35.64
1.15
1.85
2.07
260
283
3.
1J1
1.69
132
257
1.37
.69
.90
1.33
1.06
1.28
.53
1.12
1.02
1.09
.15
.15
.15
.22
.26
.28
.19
.2S
26
26
.58
.71
1.00
1.28
1.42
1.20
1.62
1.99
1.05
I.JJJ
7.31) .13
10.13
4.91
5.52
5.81
6.41
1.-49
7.n
913
23.
. 7 23.
7.1
.33
7.
4.7
.5
11.,
lU
14.6
16.5
113
14.3
15.6
14.4
15.1
.71
.80
37
.80
30
~2
.71
30
.93
1.91
1.7%
1.4~
12~
1.1~
1.4\
1.7'4
1.4~
1.6%
438.' 411.7 544.6 .... 5 622.5 606.3 614.2 846.1 872.4 .... 9
7.9, 10.0% 10.4~ 12.6% 11.1' 11.7\ 11.5' 11.6% 122~
1.8%
30.3
333
10.4
16.4
21!
36J
10J
124
19.'
33.6
124
16.1
31.5
26.4
30.4
26.7
312
27.6
24.'
36.3~ 35.6% 36.0% 36.3~ 36.5" 31.5\ 36.3' 36>% 36.5%
35."
4.3\
3.6%
J..41
4.6%
28~
3.'%
3.9"
4.5'
6.""
823
80.9
81.0
1045.6
145.6
154.1
815
995
".5
28.7
2fJ.7
.. 5
IOU
2Il2.
18/i.9
213
'555
38.' 36'
113.4 127.5 159.3
207.1
170.5
191.9
175.2
175.9
225.' 242.D
16.4%
9J~
9.K
16.8%
11.1% 10.7'
9.4%
7.7%
11.1'
141'
10.9%
15.511f. 17.'~
15.7'
15.5\
15.8%
12.6'
1'.1~
13.9"
11.8"

IlIId on last savday of Q1!and_

quartm.

co 21111. YH.Ie LkJe ~


THE I'UlIU~R
IS lilT Rf
d ~." lie ,.1IIlII:zIl-*l
...

23.9

i,I"o""" "

....

Total DebtS178.1 mil. Dillin 5 YI1I $120.0ml.


IT DlbtS145.5 mill.
LTIntlirnt.$8.Qmil.

ANNUAL RATES
)

12.1

1992
1990 1991
18.91 18.S1l
38.70
1.11
1.15
.56
.67
.67
.09
.13
.13
.13
.35
~7
.30
.. 7
4.85
4.45
Zl.f2
22."
7,2
128
127
.78
.94
'.99
UI 15\
U~
1.8'"
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE .. at 3I291a3

CUrT11T11

2Il.'

**-1 '~sWn

Ii;

00101
0 0 0 0
000
4 0 0 1 0 0
...
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
lnatllutlor.-I Decision.
102.2
'02.2
43
3.
43
36
"84
'684

"'... .,

..,

13.0

JJASOIIIDJf

1987
21.34
30.22
.63
1.11
.28
.69
.06
.08
.35
.."
3.OT 3.61
2U13
9.~
.60
.52
3.01
I.K

6.6

Ann'l TGtII
RftJrn '\'.

Gain

1~5~1
15%
+20%
6"

Insider Oec15ton.

fO.3

lREUII[SS

PfllAm .99~ 1.4%


21.00 I~m 15.6(~~i:ln RELlTI'IE

[RRORSOROMIs.sJONSH[RE. ... llB~issb:ly


11GIlB"
IIId1ll b,.,..-.g,.

hIJIIIiIIId it ~ ,n.t ....

....

..,,....,.

........

IIAb II

jl'1IlIaI1

CclrnP~
FlnaDdIJ Slrnflh
Stoct'a
rtCit StablltJ
Prict: Growth PerwlltMtcl
Earnlnp
PrdctatJlltJ

'.

: II:

70
IS5
75
II'

Docket N
Workpaper # 3 to. FJH-11
P-03-4

AVAlONBAY
SAFlY
TECHNICAl
BETA

MI

{1 JJO

47251: 194(II01,g;22.1)~~ 1.15~

RAm

High:

3 "'' ' 1J1


2 """1111J1
3 ....,,,.,..,

Tllruli[SS

I~ECEJIT
PRICE

COMM,NYSE.AVB

".0
22..

Low:

....
32.'

oe,'"__""s

/l!a'ssGl

R_

..

III"

- -- - -- -- - --

111-"

100
80

..
80
50

30
25
20

"

....

t~_

2Q1.'

P.I"CtI'"
r..

"
77
82208

8.
8,90S

.. ,..

....,'

,""I'

Institutioll8l DKlllions

I,."

Target Pric. Range


2004 2005 2006

M.9
42.4

'25

l~l ,."
""

~",
75
LaW
55
+15%
Insider Decisions
DJF_AIIJJA
000001000
120
1 1 002
1
, 3 0 1 1 1 0 2 1

74

50.6
32.8

~Ie

Ann'l loti!

....
.....

.... "".

37.0
30.8

l:~
Diw-=:J
Rrmlirre t;:f Slnrlglh

..... ~

GaIn

39.3
30.5

LEGENDS

2004-0< PROJ'CT]ONS
Price

6.1%

l&ediill: HW

'

..

..... ......
... -

10

.......

~ TOT. RETURI

"""
,,,.
,,,. ".0

15.

1".

10.'

t1111

7.'

...,

-10.6

26.'

'.0
:::..
1i288~
cYALlELlEPIIl
AvalonBay Communities was tanned out 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 __
prill lie. ~
of a merger
AvaJoo Properties In~
..
..
.. .. 24." 26.1" 3325 3325 31&3 JI.7S Z5.DII
44111
"
..
..
.. .. W W 2.81 322 3.70 t10 t50 Fund. Inn 0pI pw lib UO
and
Apartment Communities in Jun.
.. .. .. .. .. 1.48 1.59 1.35 1.55 1.93 2.Jf 110 ElninpprlllA
1998. The merger was accounted for under
Ul
..
..
.. .. 1.90 1.94 200 206 220 155 100 DlY'dl Dld'd pw III ~
the purchas. method of accounting, with
08
.. .. .. .. .. 29.48 36.<0 6055 61.44 61.17 1115 'UO R...... prlll
as the legal surviving .ntiIy. At the limB
I1.M
..
..
..
,.111
..
..
71111 COIIlMln Shs OuWs C
1110
of the lI1llIQ.r, 950,064 shares of series A
30.74
36.16
&3.89 65.n 67.19
.. .- .. .. .. 1 . 41.7
Prelened Stock and 405,022 shares 01 sa.0
.. .. .. .. .. ".1 13. 28., 21.1 21.6
ries B Preferred stock were converted into
1>0
r-- 1"'11... 1 PIE R'"
.. .. .- .. .. 12." f4.5 17.9 8.1 9.6
to.o
"'rg AlII'IMFO Rdo
1.355 mil. shares 01 ammon slock.

_Bell

Bay

..
..

Bay

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as of 1131t1D1


Tatal Debl $1888.8
DH In 5 V,. $ 423.7 mil
U,lntlftSt $100.0 mill.
(Totall"ltrinst

COYl!I3ge: 3.Qx)

,.. " "'Cap~

Pfd stoct $139.0rnl. PId. Dlt"d $37.5 mill.


13.9rni1., 8.0" b 8.7"
(4% of Capl)
Pfd. staled 1Il1iqu. value

(52% of CIIp"l)
Cammon Stock 68,082,637 shs .
As oflllJUt
MARKET CAP; 53,2: bll. (Mid C.p)

...

, ,'''

FUNDS FLOW (lmll.)


Net profit Plus

Ncmc:ash dlarges
Investments
RePlid

'93.5

NllIt New Debt


New Equity

350.0
137.2
713.2
126.2

Invesfmenls
Furw:l8d
Diri1&nds Declared
ANANCW.
Senior Debt.
Subordinated

1678.7

AssBls-'IJInvests.

2001
2002

CaI-

""'"
;;;;
2000
2001
2002

.42;1

,.....
.80:1

3.0%

... .r,

F.II

311.3
SOI.3
512.9
8511
72S
filII
Y....

.!~

.11
.51
.10

t~
1.93

.57

.50
.10

2.30

.11

.11

11

1711

.!!
.33

.15
.53

.11

5.,",

lIu.3t Jun.311 StD.3O OK."


77.3 118.1 119.5
56.'
11. B 122.2 130.3 133.0
135.0 f39.8 1.... 2 151.9
155.6 1623
185
117.1
171
178
t'7
'III
EARJINGS PER SKARE A
1IM.'1 Jun." s.o.-311 Doc. '1

ea.
.....
., .,
1997
1998
1999
2000
200'

185.5

QUARTBlLY RE'IEJIlJES P oil

- .~
'191

132.,

.-

-.70:1

7 .

1888.8 mil.

.30;,

V.......

1191

350.0
38.2

516.3
172.3

PORTFOLIO CONIXI1ON

...."

275.0

53.3

TotalO&WEquly

coJ.

294 .

mil.

Debt

Sr DeWCapl Funds

Non-Ellm

250.1
7.5

I/3lIIIII

POSmoN

2llOO

,..,

QUARTERLYDI'r1lEMlS PAIl"
F'"
.ar.31 Jun.30 SnJO Dec.31
.12 .12
1.68
. 2

.51

.56
.61

.51
.51
.56
.61

.51

.52
.56
.61

51
52

.56
.61

(A) DiUIed 1!SII1Igt.. ExcUdlIs ClIpU1 gem.


Excludes IIClmICLtnng gaits (bsS): '99 ($0.25).
0., elIfTIings refIIIct resIruclInlg. Next
umings repgt late Oct.
'98

CImil. VIlle .... ~~


THEPU8I.JSl*.RlSfrlJTR

d_ .JIltIlJll____

...

1.95
2116
22'

..
...
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..

..

..
..
..

..

..
..
...
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
-..
--

&old:

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
-..
-..

7.alI

5.2'4

5.1%

124.8
7.9
59.8"

110.5

371.3

.7

.1

60.8"
65.1
382"

6.1'"
SOI.3
2
63.0"
1'20
292"

""

..

.,

150

64.1,
169a
29.8"

IU"

60-'"
1S.6
98.5
28.5"
36.5"
<0.7
1.9
28J
47.1
.7
906.1 1338.0 3869.1 4041.3 4110.0
506.0 1155.4
1415.1 1129.9
310.5
738.0 961.0 2314.4 2310.3 2442..5
69.7%
64.0%
81.5% 10.0%
60.5"
1.3"
9.3"
6.9"
9J"
4.4%
3.8%
62"
5.6%
3.-4%
7.0'
5.9"
'2"

1.4,

5.3'
5129

Avg Ann' DiY'd YIIId


115 R_ .....
., 0IIIr~

'0"
2If

....

Net

1100
"'0

Ill"

,.'" 'ROll
.'"
lOll

33.1"
50.0 C..... GllnI( ..
Rui"1(~

,1.0"400
1

'100 '""'T....... I~
2150 &11,.- ...... , ... '

'U"

DiY'c11 Ded'd to

It"

0_

""....
-"'"

'R'"
50.0

7.0"

no

lROlI IEaDtnllltD A5SItI


lOll R-'m an TGb!C.'
_
<WI SIr. Equ;1y
'.OlI

.It'"
.0
5500

......'"
'400

lROlI
L11l'

tl.5ll

AvalbnBay ConI'Ilunl_,
Inc. is iI real. estatlll 1nve5ttJusI (REIT') focusing on h managemlMlt 8I'ld dlmIlopment of
high-end resi:lential a~
a:JrT1l1llxes. The ~
01 communities
and IIlgy
pmpst8s .. katBd iJ Nor1h8m and
SouttMm Clllomia,
as weI " '"
NorlhaaItn and Mid AtIanIi::
UnilBd StrfIs. As at MlWdt 2001, AVilbnBay hlld a dnct or i1dnct

iIIterest in 126 c:onwrIInitills will a trAIl at 38,080 units. AvakKlBay


is thlll PVimg entily from .. merger at Avalon properties, Inc.
witt arJ:l iIIo 88)' ~nIs
Corm1unilillll, Inc. Chl.m.n
and
Prindplll E.cacuti't8 orr.:-: REhR
L Mi:tIaIP.. Phane: {703} 3296300. Ackh$s: 2900 EisliInhcM'lIr Aftnll8,
Sub 300 AllwinclQl,
Vi"ginll223I-4.
frrf8rIwt: WWW.8Yabl1t.y.lDII.

AValonBay9s diverse portfolio continues to perfonn weD. Second-quarter results were helped by strength in the New
York, Boston. and San Diego residential
markets, which 8CCmmtfot about 55% of
Avalon's net operating Income. This helped
offset weakness in northem California,
where rents and occupancy rates have
declined about 15% from their highs. Although the office markets have sloWed,
Avalon's portfollo. composed of resIdential
properties In h1gh-barriers-to-cntty nelghborhoods, managed to post decent gains.
Total rental revenue, as well as net operatlng income, for the June quarter Increased about 15%, year aver )'eBI". with
strong sarne-stoce comparisons. Eanlings
for the quarter Increased by almost 30%,
excluding gains on property sales, and
Funds From OperatJons rose about 15%.
compared to the year-ago period.
The recent
redemption
of preferred
stock should help enhance earnings.
In June, the company redeemed Us series
F preferred stock, which had a coupon
payment of 9%. ThIs will help reduce Interest charges (potentially adding about
$0.05 to diluted earnings. annually) pro-

v1ded this is not offset by other borrowlngs. A J1eW credit facl1lty and the low Interest rate environment should continue to
offer Avalon inexpensive access to capital.
DJ.e company should continue
to
benefit
&om tts broad
development
~pcline.
~
the June
quarter.
valonBay
com eted construction
of
projects in Washington. New Jersey, and
San Diego. The company has ] 3 development projects under COllStnJCtlon,
which
should add 3,680 apartments to the current portfoHl> of 38,000 Wllts. These communitles should be completed ~ the end
of 2002 and occupIed by late
003. The
company also has rl~
on 9.800 units.
With the low cost of
dng, and strong
rental markets, these properties should
generate strong returns out to 2005.
AvalonBay shares may be l>r interest
for income. The company's FFO has traditionally exreeded distributions by about
40%, leaving Income investors wtth a
derent margin of safety. However, these
neutrally ranked shares, like most in the
REIT sector, offer only Ilmited 3- to 5-year
appreciation potential.
Adam Rasner
October 26. 2001

BUSINESS:

ment

let min.

N8xI divi:l9nd m8lIting about 0lIc. 15th.


In
ax i!Ibout Dee. 20th. Oivilend PlI)mtnt
D 8ccIudes capital gails. FI'WK:iaI dm for
dat8I ri:f.Jan., ApnI, July, and Od. .Oiv'iiencI
'96-'98 rvfIIIds effects d merger.
J81T.. !sli,,,"t plan ava:labill..
__
. FdlIl ...
i5."
tn. ~
b8iewId Ia be I1IIIbIe and i5 Jhfided ....
~
d ~ tn:L
E. DRAHYRRORSORCMSSIONSHEREIII.Thii~iS5Rty"'~~_._=._i:iIl.irurlllluw.
II-'
.......,"..,II
......
_ .. ~ .. ulMdill..,.....r.gDr .....
..,
.......
*d'ri:.~wticeu~

CClll'lpa~

F .... ncIlII

StmI ....

Stock's
rica stabllly
Price Grvwtll ~
earnings PrMlk:tab6ItJ
1

I".

1CO

115
NMF
:11:

II',

I~ 29.30 Irdoo18.H=:I:i) W~ 1.08 ~ 6.5%

BRE PROPERTIES
NYSEBRE
3
I

'NruNSS

19.9 11.3 18.1 24.8 30.0 211.7 26.4


33.7
14.2
16.1 14.9 14.8 17.3 23.5 21.5
20.5 21.8
'jL~~~;~~'~'~,2~~'~',~4L-~l-':':+-:'::'.I~~~~+~~~'~~~~~l"::~_~~_+-'2~004:
I. LEGENDS
High: \

RI6ell'lrl9l1

SAFETY

TECHNICAL

3 Rl!elIll11,!M31

He. 1n.1&J

...

~~om.~

:kI.r"~ec.::~1"'' ':....

RbIrs

'1111

......

". ,

"0

",...

0 0 0 a 0 0 0 0 0
114002813
11511 a a 1 000
a 1 0
InstitutiDnal Decisions
1m'"

54

156

2'~

'"

Ill""
24

20

'"

~:

10

'

....."

0pIIiN

213~

2006
80

.,.1

.......

~..,

::..

- 2005

_____:
~
32.

I '.. II.

PJf.A.JJA

"Illy

Price Range

~na,

22"

'ht

4Ql ..

T.,9"

b,'

~~

1~1

55

33.0
26.2

Z~~~

Gail

Price

16.3

15_~\

=?:~

~r:e..

2004-06 PRwECTIONS
Hillh

, . ~

8
6

.....

.":

'.

.'.

"'Tot~Mn
1lIS

;:

IID.1 Pen:.1II
T2

.h.r

248~

tradMI

'.0
4.0

-tItir.itI

2.0

~_

'rr

VLAIIIIl

3)'1

3&.9

2&3

5)'1

920

551

4
_

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 199& 1991 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 VALlifutEPIIII.IIC, IM-46
8.90 8.99 9.12 8.99 10.89 14.13 16.95 17.30 1727 16.28 1150
fll5 BoakYllutplfthu
1J.75
117
1.22 1.32 112
1.26 1.66
f.61
2.10
2.34 2.38
US
171 "CuII~pII'lII
1011
0.97 1.28
1.51
1.02
1.08 111
1..37 1.41
1.55
1.60
1.10
1.75 ElnMnglpll'lhB
1.
1.20
1.20
1-20
1.20
1.26
1JI
1.38
1.,"
1.56
1.7/)
U'
:'ID DiY'dlDld'dl*lIIc
l4f
12.1)5 12.31 11.51 15.34 15.09 23.35 31.21 3619
37.38 36.42 JU5
17.50 loInl&RMIElJ1pIl'lh
3110
15.&4 15.801 21.&4 21.84 21M
32.801 41./4 44.22 44.68 45.90 11.00 ... DO C_
SJIs Quist;
510D
.. ~
,,~
,,~
,,~
,,~
,..
S4~
,,~
"'~
7u~ ..... "'I'"' _
fl>'
13,'
Its
1tS
115
l1Jl
16,4 '9,0
173
16..7 17,4
A~Ann"lERdo
20.0
.70
.n
.70 .70
.n 1.02 .83 1.02 .95
i7
R*tiwPIERdo
1.30
B.1% 6.7% 8.1% B.1'
6.7'
6.6'
5.3% 5.7% 6..2% 6.1%
Avg.....n'DiY'c1Y... d
45.3 54.4 45.3
45..3 M.4
101.6 137.8 2031 234.3 235.7
Z&I
270 Gms neon. (kDII)
:t5O
20.3 26.5
20.3
20.3
26.5
37.0 .9.3
60.6
73.2
17.0
'0.0
17,0 Nilt Pnllt l$nil}
125
44,8~ 48..7~ 44n
44..8~ 48,,," 36,4\ 35J~ 29,8~ 312~ 32..7~ 310% 310% N"Protiiianzk.
,..'"
LT Debt $595.7
LT ln1el'lSt $50.0 mill.
190.7 194.9 251.4 28U
3367 776.4 1302.7 1604.9 1670.3 1671.9 f70G 1100 LoenliRtIIEIt(1fllllr
Z10D
,za,)
f'6%"'Cap'O
1..0
1..0
1..0
1..0
to
15
15
,3
2,0
2,0
l'
15 LoosR..... Bo.iil
10
PM Stoclr $53.8 rnil.
PId.Dtv'd $4.6 mill.
1-,;;;+--.-cO'+",:;'-I--.7.C+-'';;'+.i.''-+--..!E'-h-;;;+~O'+-';:;'-I--...;;..+-..~'tr~'''''~'E~-l--.='-1
l.15milshs. S8ries A am. s1li:luid. value.
Ui'
9.5'
9.6'
9.6% 9.5'
7.5".4 1.91 7.5'
5.9'
7.51
7,0% 7.0% A'I81n1ns1hid
7.0%
(4% ofCAp~
.
.
.
.
124.0 186.0 264.0 315.0 368.0
150
250 SIIOf1TII'IIDIbl{SrlllJ)
JOG
Common Stock 46,504,843 shl.
(SO% ofCap'1)
63.0 46.7
63.0 63.0
46.7 188.0 355.4 517.1 .64.01 457.3
700
700 I.ongTInI DIbI (""1
100
142.3 249.3 142.3 '.2.3
239.3 464.1 707.5 765.0 8251 801.1
825
.50 !fir.
1100
92.1'
65.5% 92.'% 92.1% 65.5% 80.0".4 66,5% 55.9% 541% 51.3, 55.0% 55.0'% CIpFlZIldI101a1CIp
5:''''
MARKET CAP: 11.01 bit (Mid Capl
1.6"
1..6" 1..61 1.5"
3.6%
4.3"
4.5"
4.7'
1.5"
4.S" ElperrMsio AsHfJ
#.5"
FUNDSFlOW($mill.)
1991 1919 2000
12.9% 8.9'" 12..9% 12.910 8.!Jll 6....
6.7% 6.110 7.11
7.'
7.0'% 1.0% RItwn llIIT~ CIp"I
'.5%
Net profit Plus
14041 10.6' 14.01\0 14.4% 10.61
8.D\
7.01
1.910 8.91
9.6'
l~
Ian
RItum on stn:. fqviIJ
H.",

1985 198& 1981 1988 1989 1990


B.02. 8.87
8.93 8.65
8.47
9.13
1.22
1.28
1.12 1.16
121
125
1.15
2.11i
126
0.94
102
1.87
1.18
1.20
t.20
1.20
1.20
120
1U2
1227 12.34 12.63 12.n 12.65
15.12 15.74 15.76 i5.1ll 15.82 15.84
Ili!~
,,~
,,~
'"
ff~
S4~
118
7..1
7,1
15,6
14..8
7,'
1.08 ..e
.48 129
1.18
.88
B.~
81\
8.3"
8..3" 8.D" 9.1'
CAPITALSTRUCTUREas 01
II..
51 Debt $154.0mi.
Due In 5 Yrs $522.8 mi.

=~

"_In""'....

5.""

rrofa' __

t.s,

2.5"

=~ge:'id
~~':.~
~-~
NIWDebt
2~0:7
.
a
Net

NewEquity

58.5

BUSINESS: BRE PlDpIIIti!s. Inc., ftmlllf1y Banlr.An&a RsaIy, is


maJ estIt8 i'l\eSlmeflf tnJst witllan emphasis on i'la:me pmduc~:~
~:~
ilg real1SbIl8.
PcrIoIi:lIt 12131100:property invesinlanb. 99%:
104.2
105.3 nxltgages and othw. 1%. Re8I esta1rt hlYlJOU8
SOlIfQ!9
i1 2000:
73.7
81.2
aplRnBnls, 97%. tlJI'IVI'&l:ial
and nUi, 1%: othIr. 2%. Major
12131'-SDII'QlS of Net Operati1g lncmne by mm.!:: San franci;cD Bay

Invesl/JJ8nbFWJdel:l 290.3
DividlilOCls
DIiICIal*:i
62.1
FINANCIAL
posmON
1m'.
Senior Debt (mill.)
$779.4
SlIbordinaIBdDebt (mi.)
-

popularity
among
Investors
months.
Even beS,DebCICap1Funds .048:1
.51:1 fore the terrorist attacks. there was conTotal DebtlEquly
.94:1
1.03.1 cern that a slowing economy would reduce
PORTFOUOCONDrnoN
YearAQo Last
oc:cupancy and rental
rates on BRE's
MlgesRapaidinQuartBr(mll.)
1.0
1.0
properties.
It was felt that eanlings
would
Loss Reserw-%IInv.sts.
.5%
.S% also be hurt by develDpment projects that
eo. REAL!SL\'ULl),lllS~"'I'
are neartng completion and. In view of cur-ndar 1Iar.31
.Iud'
Dee.31
rent market conditions. might not provide
1111 1367.5 14n6 1534.3 1604.9
the expected returns. Moreover. this REIT
1. 1612.6158U 1620.61610.3
speclaHzes
in
multifamily
properties.
2100 16&9.2 1748.2 1509.5 1671.9
Apartment demand
typicalJy reflects the
z001 1647.5 1693.4 1700 1700
employment situation. whJch is weaken2llO21m 17511 171111
IMII
lng, F~ennore.
the company has InealEARHlMGSPERSIIAREFill
vested heavily
in northern California in
.1,-31 Jun..3D s.,.JO - DK.31
:recent years. It sold a number of holdings
1991
.34
.37
.32
.38
1.41 in other areas to finance this strategy.
1!199
,35
,38
,40
,42
1..55 ThIs market appeared particularly attrac_
.42
.40
.42
.36
1.60 tIve because of employment growth (due.
2001 .38 .41 .40 .41 1.10 In part, to its proximity to Silicon Valley).
2oa2
.4U
.45
..f$
,45
1.15 At the same time, there
were Iimltations
CalQUARTBlLYDN'l>EHDSPAI)C
full
on new supply. due to the scarcJ.ty of land
end.
Jun,. SepUGDtc.3f
YMr and to environmental regulations.
It there1.,7
.345 .345 .345 .345 1.38 fore seemed that
rents would rise sig,38 ,38 ,38 ,38 1..44n18cantly, But the employment pIcture
1!199
,39
,39
,39
..39
1..56 has darkened this year, On top of the
2001 .425 .425 .425 .425 1.70 downrum in Silicon Valley. the bombings
2001
.465 .465 .465
have hurt other
sectors- of CaUfomias
825.3
_.

BRE stock

bas lost
in recent

s~-;:;o

Y.,

"*'

1.

.,..3.

(AJ FIICal ,... ends July 31st before 1996:


calendar )'8. UI8nIata. At 12131100
esl:d aplQised MIe1. vaUe was $32.0QIsh. (B) Baed
on IIVSiI98' stIi1f1lS outIIa.ndilg 10"91, IlMId
co 2un. v.-li'It ~
InL All rQtU nsernd.

*.,

lItIntafl . IncL Tl'lIm'I'I!n


Egs. rpl rnid-Nov. Exd.
EJd. property SiIIIriIt.
'93, $1.20;'96, $1.73; '00,
FIdIItI "'*'i. b diIRd _
4~

WIT"" ......

Tlll PU8U'5HERlIS. NJTRrSPoNsllll"oRNf1


[R'RORSOIl.OMI'SSlONSHERrtN.
fA
lie ~
mGIt ...,
... ..-l1l:I iI
In.

Ma, 29%; Phoenbt, 12%; s.allE!, 11%: San Siego, 16"': LDs
Angell!s,12%. Has iIbOUI 4,020 stJ.e!loldlrs. 0IIics's and Iliactors crMI 3.5% 01" c:orrmon stock; Sta1e Fmn Insllfilnce. 5.4'1..
(-W1 Proxy). Org.: DE. Clmln.: J. McMahln. Pres. & C.E.O.: F.C.
McDowell Address: 44 Montgcmery SL. San FnInci1co. CA 941045225. TeIrilptKg:

415-445-6530. In1BmeI: www.brepropllltilll.lXlI.Il.

economy. As a -result. occupancy and rental rates have been falling this year. in ronteast to the hefty gains of the past.
This
pessimism
may
have
been OV1!rdone. BRE has been through tndustIy
downtUIns before. The' current dip may be
JDOJ'e moderate.
if only because oVe.rbulldIng has not been a big problem this time
around. We think. BRE's earnings will
remain strong. although the rate or growth
might slow down for a while. Moreover.
one reason for the smaller eanrlngs gains
is that BRE has not fully reinvested
the
proceeds of property sales. It might now be
able to do so at more favorable prices. Furthennore. BRE's portfolio, whJch has risen
about IO-fold In the past 10 years. and its
good finances will likely enable this REIT
to continue to grow.
BRE stock offers an attractive
riskalljusted
potential
total retunL
The
current yield ls generous by today's standams. And the payout has never been cut.
even when earn1ngs declined.
BRE's hold
Ings might well provlde hlgher returns In
2004-2006, As these strengths are ",cognlzed. a richer stock valuation is likely.
Milton ~')chJein
October 26. 2001

kiId.~_

CItIII' tmt Nov.'97i: 1fC) Next dN"idend fIIiMItilg aboutNcrt. 17. Goes
nome. gain i1 '90. l!lI about New. 25. Appr. div'd prnl dales; 20th
gaits il 'BZ. $l.04: Df .....
Jon., Sep. Dee:. (D) h, m'Aons.ad$0.79.
,iusted fa slodr spit

:III:Ut:e'S lldiewed la be ~
.... is pvwided ....
nmpllblil:l&ilnisllri::ly
... ~_,IlCIll~idflllll_.Nopill
If
9IfIII*sI. ~.,
pi*Il. *tI-lri:'

BIll.

'ftIJIIIliIs

III ~

fIIM:*\ sene.

ComPm1J'sfinanellll Shngth
Sklck's PrlQ StablItJ
Pra Gnnrtb ~~"ntll
Elnd. PIIdctatlDtJ
I

prlldld.

I',

B++
95
50

95

: II:

II'

CHEMED CORP. NYSE-cHE


TMEUIIESS

SAfElY

3 lo... '"''
3"",,_

lOW'

3Z.8
25.5

32.4
24.3

. . .

OCtNo.u"'s

An"'llobl
Rdim
!IJgtI
24"
lDIr
45
+60%
, .. "
IMider Decisions

.41).3
30.4

40.1
34 .

(~l~l

".

11'11.1'1,.

."

,"

..

"

'

..
'

..

...

",

",

34.1
24.6

..

.....

11l2.1

P.n:em

-.

106.9

98.'

....
32

"
20
18

1" .

""""

78.3

101.3

'191
,.

'33

...

i'_i)'

..

II

,,,.

......

""il''''

(AI B...,
.... UI W,
f><d.$2.7(; '93,~;036;.'94,"...34;
'92, 18;;
18LU.
..-nstdisc.
ops.;...."85, " ~;... ,. '86",
.59;;; ~1.~;
'98, 1.81;
'97,
"88, $1.07; '91. $4.17; '92, 15;:: 93. 23;~.
n~;98. 79t!; '99. 28; 'tIO. ~; '01 (9 nm.l.
$2.87; 115. 28; '98. 6~; "ff7. $1.32; '01 (9 7j.Neldegs.reptWlduelaWtJan.(B)NeK1diriCI :zml, 'AiIIe I..iIe ~
lHEPUaI.lSIRISNJTR

2DD6

- -- - --

t.'

Cberned will likely report an eaInings


shortfall this year. Results for the PaANNUALRATES Put
Put Esfd ... OO tlent Care subsidiary have been uneven of
1ITrL
~(po"J
...
late, reflecting its exposure to caprldous
.... % -7.0%
8.5"
governmental fiscal polides. fu 1999, an
"Cash Flow"'
-1.0'%
'.5'1;
3.'"
fD.~
Eami"lgs
-1.0%
2.0%
unfavorable procedural change related. to
Dividends
NIIF
.1.5"- -5.5%
Medicare disbursements took effect. crimp3,5%
Book V....
8.0"7.5"
log prollts. A year ago. however. the ImcaJ.
lIIIARlBILTSAW".-)
Full
pJementatJon of new gulde1lnes. Ukely in
l.r.31 Jun.JO S'D.30 Dec.31 Y., response to a public lobbying campaign.
91.5 101.4
381.3 reversed the effect to the segment's profits.
88.' 95.'
l1U
1221
1DS.7 111.'
453.6 MeanwhUe, the persistent economic stow2DDO
121.5 125.2
123.8 130.2 500.7
d~~eoc~~~m~yh~~~
2DD1 D121.2 120 . m.5
lZU
'IS to
defer non-emergency plwnbing. draln2102
lID '25
137
III
cleaning. and appliance-repair
projects,
EARNIIGS PER SHARE
e...
FuN
leading to softer sales for the Roto-Rooter
r.31 JUII.30 S'P.30 Det.31 Y.,
and Service America subsidiaries. We are
1991
.63
.47
.32
1.98 optlmistlc that pent-up demand is bu1ld.56
119t
.51
.42
.'1 1.88 lng. but its release will probably not come
.49
2DDD
.49
.61
..a .51 2.09
economic uncertainty subsides. In
2QDl
"..a .34 .26 .32 lAD until
2DlI2
.51
.13 Ull the meantime. the company has launched.
.SIl
.SIl
a series of remedlal measures designed to
Co. QUARTERLYDNIIENDS PAIl C.
~ull cut costs and bolster marketing efforts.
.ndar
Mu.31 Jun.3G SeD.JO Dtc.31
Y- On the surface, our estimates suggest
1197
.53
.52
.52
109 that 2002 will be a banner year fur
.52
.53
.53
.53
2.12 Cbemed. with operatln~ Income Ukely to
.53
1119
.53
.53
.53
2.12 improve by more than
.53
0%. Much of the
2DDD
. 1.
.10
.10
. 1.
expected gain. however. stems from a
2DD1
.11
.11
11

",,,-rile ~

200.

.".

39
8571

39

" ........

Price Rangll

2."

...-

12

.....
""
~.,.. ~.

II. Tot RT\IRIII Ml,

3.'"

""

Tllrpt

26.5

-',"

"Ill

.-

39.3

. ..

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199. 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997~
58.83 35.57 41.09
53.59
68.71
33.91
42.07
44A5
53.37 57.57
6539
70.98
36.61
".03
3.89
1.93
2. 1
3.19
5.08
3.59
3.10
4.19
415
3.09
3.96
320
357
'.66
261
\.60
1.1D
1.45
1.59
323
204
1.047
U3
1.75
211
tn
1.96
2.28
1.97
1.52
1.56
tn
1.84
1.96
200
2.01
204
2.1lI
2.08
209
2.12
1.60
1.15
1.91
.B9
1.05
1.Dl
1.56
1.38
.7D
.84
1.41
U7
1.56
200
211
1D.22 13.34
11.86 11.n 11.04
14.08 13.68 1. 00 18.89 21.18
21.89
22.84
21.45
lU7
1D.19
9.90
.7
1 .
13.6
15.B
19.8
21.1
16.3
11.7
21.9
17J
145
23.
163
15.0
".1
17.'
\.25
1.03
1.25
1.25
1.16
1.38
1.25
1.16
1.62
1.09
1.00
1.09
.73
.93
5.2'.1
9.1%
12%
9.8%
6.01
55%
5.5\
6.0\
5.1%
5."
1.3"
6.'%
~.4' 4.3'
CAPITAL SllIUCTURE 01 ~1
3523
52S.1 645.D 6992
68311 341.7
3813
5.31ft
6.911 7.0'4
7.3\
9.B%
6."
7.3' 10.'\
Due in 5 lIS $55.0 mil.
Total Dwbt $84.' mill
B.1
1511
15.2
92
13.1
1B2
18.!
173
LT Irrtetat $9.0 mil.
LTDlbt$72.7mR
11.0
1-4.3
17.1
15.6
2O.B
17.1
19.9
31.7
rndudes S1U mllon i'I trust pret'l!mId securitiBs.
30.0% 29.4% 332% 36.7% 38.'\ 38.'% 38.8' 38.0'4
(l T interest earned: 6. 111; kltal intetest CCJYl!(iI.ge:
(25"'- of cap,)
24%
S.b)
3....
5....
5.2%
3.6'
3.3'
4.6'
78.1
57.9
83.1
115
55.5
61.8
33.5
".6
Pemllcrn liability None
71.9 103.8
98.1
92.1
158.2
83.7
80.4
85.'
Lusu, Uncapltlliad Annual rentals $10.5 mill
139..4 133.S 1372
186.3 208.7 217.9 228.1
223.4
6.7%
7.1% 9.1%
7.0%
8.3% 9.4%
7.1%
7.S%
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 9,832,942 shs.
(75% of Cap'ij
7.9% 10.7% 12.5% 8.4% 10.0% 14.6% 15%
8.9%
MARKETCAP: U1S million (Small Cap)
HP6
2%
NM'
NM'
NM' NM!'
NM'
'2%
CURRENT POSITION 1999
HII'
98%
64% 123% \09%
NM' 11~% HM'
(IIILLI
lZ.8 BUSIIESS: Chemed Cmp:nion
prtlYides pl~9
ancl dnill
17.3
10.3
ca"' ......
Receivables
54.8
50. cleaning servi:es through iI!I Rol:o-Roo6er subsidiary. home health
55.'
10.5
11.1 an S81'YDlIlhrough Patien1 c.e, major residerrlial appillll1Cll8lld
'''''''''''''Y (LIFO)
28.8
31.1
34.'
Otho'
CurT1lnt Ass8ts
111.8 1li63
108.6 lIi"-condilionirlg repai" S8fYi:es ltvough. S8rri:e AmlIfi:::a 1Id axn
a!Xl oonsuli"lg I8IYi:es hough C8cke Comput
(J.aD PlI)'Bble
11.6 put&r ~rrming
112
11.1
DoblDuO
11.7
14.411.4 . Chemlld also llliti"llai"ls a pcdom of equity iwesmenb (asso:i00l0r
CurT1lnl Liab.

"11111,1

II

43.63
3.83
1.86
212
.216
20."

50.83
4.47
2.09

16.0

14.6
.97
13%

,. ,.

36.'
26.1

I'."

.. ..Il.~.
~,-.

Institutional Declalons

10'".,

,Z.,
25.1

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
020005000
001413012

40
37
8299

31.0

tee.SYIfI

I,,-;'\..

DJFMAMJJA

.'"
:::'1

43.5

100
80

..... 1

&in

- ...

36.'
30.3

Itdil'l:

1J,.CI~f""'p5/1
Rdilift Pril:e 5nftgII

PROJECT1OHS

flrIce
65

.'"

28.~
17.3

LEGENDS

TCHNICAl
em ..50 (l.DCl-MMel)
2......

36.8
18.0

High:

laIeI'ed 1J21~1

ECfIIT
2800lrfRAm 197(trOloil1IU.6) ~~ 1.151~ 1.6%
IrI'RJCE

.91
711%

5l.G5
115
1.<11
.44
2.3D
U,70

...

1.96
21.1tl

.10.8
,8>

10.2

55.1
20D2 o VALlIElJIIE PUB.IIC.
5<.a SIIupwlh
(15 -em Row" ... 11>
lID EarniIg. pII' Ih A
.44 Dh'ds DtcI'd pII' Ih 11:.
... 1I>
_130 CopT_I
u'45 800t ........ 1I>
e.......
1<

--

.....

"""":: ~

453.6
500.7
U5
lD.3% 1-U,," 1D.O%
2<0
20.1
23.'
20.6
19.1
"0
36.4' 38.'"1. "./Ill
1Jll
4.1'
4.3'
13.
10.0
'.4
78.6
la.
73.'
212.0 213.8
215
7.8% 6.3%
L/Ill
9.3%
9.6% 1.5%
NMf 7.7%
20%
JIllI
114'"

AWl

Ann'

PIE Rdo

R_P/ERdo
Avg Ann' OIY'd Yilld

515 SsluiW)
li_
1D.S" .......
115

21.0
"'/Ill
U%
.. 0
.. 0

.'"

~no:")

NotPlDl1

InCUlMTuRN

Not .... tt
W..... I CopT(lnl'
l"'llT ........
(1nIII1

.In:Eo'''' l$milli

7110
.. 5
150
.52
115
UIIl
1.50
1<5

1.05
I.n;
W
'1.n;
200
310
"'/Ill

tI"
.. 0
".0
lfO

,a/lll
Rnam 011TCIIIItip,
I./Ill Rsbwn ... SIr. Eocltv
fD.S"
'./Ill Rlilined lD COllI Eq
'./Ill
20lI AI DiY'dllD NIt PruI
ated capb.l gairls are lIICIud8das .-nings). Sot:t Nan San. Supply
and Omna Grp . Ml7; DuBois Chlm, -4191. ~Ioys 7,591. ESOP
owns 7.0% c( slock; Select Equity Gfp . 6.4%; oh. & dis., 4.8%
(:W1 proxy). Ctwmn. & CEO: E.L HutDl. PM.: K.J. MdWnn.
Inc:.: DE. Addnta: 2tIOO Chlln*l ClInIllr. 255 East FJIh st.. Ci'lci"lnati, OH 45202. Tel: 513-762-6900.1nt8mBt: www.d8ned.CDlTJ.

''''

''''

change in accounting rules that calls for


the pennanent eUmlnation of goodw:lllamortlzatlon beginning next year. 'ThIs factor
alone will add about $0.45 to the bottom
Hne, though cash flow will not be impacted. Our estimates also assume that more
hospItable equity markets help to support
rlslng investment income. 1l1e company
maintaim a large stock portfoLJo. perlodjcally selllng sllar'es to reap capital ~
(which we Include as earnings). De v1ng
deeper into the numbers, we do antJdpate
a vibrant operating-profit recovery. but not
until the economy stabillzes and the benefits of Chemed's business realtgrunent fully take effect in the latter half of the year.
1b.is stock. though
untimely.
offen
good 3- to 5-year capital-gains potential. based on our long-tenn projections.
Lan; L. Bainbridge
November 2. 2001

-----,-

..

..

a..e-IW: .... ,., ....

_eoo

mlUll
12U!2-511
242..1(lllll

u"',

4BJI4.S1
AIIdu--. ,..c.
..__

c..C. ........

q,....,. Gel:tIri:"""

........

U!III!.

1In'IJI!.

pill
pad.

!Ill

""

"~III

141[1.411
m.l(1.511
211.1(1.111
UIlII.JI1

"'"III
'UIl

IMjl1Ij

.1fUII
IllII ....

"'IUIO

"IUII

7f(lJII

-1lJI,!

iI'D1.

do"" "",fll!~
.....ab~Fob.
Goos ox .... Fob. 20~~ StDct's
Dr-'ds
tI1e 5.
10th d M. Jun.. Sep..
rtcestabilty
Dee:... DIYd f8lfIvesl ptan nal (~.
PI1c8 Grvwth PIIrslstMcl
(D)Res1iQdfDrdisctWdinuanceof
.
EamlnpPrdctabllltJ
rfiItR ... is IJU'iIeII .....
UIJWIlie5,
01 ~ UId.

AI ~
rtSeMd. FactYII .-ill & atIlained fIllIn __
tBe.ed lD be
SIIlF
OR ANY ERRORS OR OAiIS9.ONS HERE.., ~iiln::lyIar~,_._[Q4
!NIl. i&n:I. hIuIIIIN it MfIJ pri*d, ~.
_
.... _
.. ~
-..trIiI;

I".

95
20
60
:

t I:

II.

NEW PLAN EXCEL NYSE.NXL


High:
Low:

18.6
13.8

24.5
16.1

26.1
19.8

26.4
21.5

24.4
18.8

23.0
19.6

25.6
19.9

26.0
21.4

26.1
17.9

17.4
11.8

22..
14.8

TllIrget Price Range


20041 2005 2006

19.2
13.1

LEGENDS

50

~Diw::J:'
.' ,

.1 ......

'

,.,

",

.' .- ".

............,. ,
.....

"" Tar. RETURN 111:11


1)'1'.

3 yr.
5yr.

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990


3.66 4.<0
5.9B 6.03
7.90
7.96
.80
.B5
.84
.B5
.98
1.01
~ ~ n ~ N ~
.66
.73
.Bl
.89
.'11
1.05
2.68
3.41
2.93
3.~
3.61
4.56
11.26 2O.bf 26.64 &.85
34.11 35.15
,,40

,"'. ,7.. 157. ,,,' ,.....


13.8

30.9

21.0

12.0
6.al

14.0
6.2%

20.4

18.-4 16.0
5.3"
61%

18.4

18.7

15.9
6.2%

16.8
6.1%

CAPrrAl STRUCTURE u of 1I3Oo'lI1


Total Debt '1208.4 mil. Dillin Five Yrs $2Z5 mil
TotaIlntliresi
$90.0 mill
(45% d Cap')
(2.3 II inEres1. CoveRge)
CClllWllon Stod: 87,209,8(H l/Is.
(55" oICap1J
Pfd. S10ck$.023mil.
(less than 1% Cap1)
1.5 mill. 8Y.!%curnulirtiwl:
(at 1Iq. valuB)

8.6% wies B step-up

pnIfJI.

MARKET CAP: 51.6 elOIGn (Mid Clp)


FUNDSFlOW(lm~l.)
Net profit Plus

1i9a

1199 200II

Noncashctlarges
InvoatmentsRepaid

182.0 211.0
.

Net New Debt

501.3

187.5

--

124~~ -109~~

~
Funded
14:~:g
55.1
-11.2
Divi:lends Declcsred
142.0
166.4
161.0
FINANCIALPOSITlON 1Z1J1J11
12131.
<__.'"
'-'11

n-w
..........

SubonlinillBd
Debt.

$1003.0

188.5

$960.0

238.0

.10.6

2S.3
55.1

BfO
19.3

1<'5>
25.0

",.

",.

271

22.3

960

B,.

B,.

'00

17.7

17.0

172

14.8

17.3 221
23.1
182
14.3
13.3 13.1 11.3
U%
5.6% 5.4% 5.7% 6.5% 6.6% 6.'%
1.'"
41.4
47.6
65.3
96.4 126.4 162.8 2D2.1 419.1
16.0 17.1 11.0
4.6
4.1
U
.u
..
71.40 71.00 6720 64.30 65."
84.B\ 63.10 66..
35.1 39.4 42.3
513
62.7
70.5 no 154.5
60.7'
60.9% 55.4% 50.8'
49.6% 43.3'
38.",
36.P4
U
10.1
.9
1.0
2
.4
.
.
173.5 304.1 3742 MS.1 723.9 919.0 1171.8 2667.0
18.6 11.5 23.3 28.1 'JIJ6.7
238.4 .f12.7 Wr7.9
4371 506.3 500.6 565.5 510.5 659.7 745.0 1695.0
109.7' 125.2% 125.4% 103.9" 92.1% 87.5'11. 82.8\ 75.D"
4.6% 3.9% 4.7'
6.3% 6.0\
61\
6.1% 5.7%
11.8'"
101'
8.6%
9.7'
9.0'
8.4'11.
8.8'
7.2%
12.0% 10.111 8.6\
9.8% 11.Of. 11.0\ 10.3'
9.1%
BUSI\IESS: New Plan' ElIcelRBilIy Trust is iI sef-ldmillidlftld
i1ndmanagBd,equity-crienl9clra11~

2,.
14.3

-=~

NMF ......
12.4

8.7
B.~
438.0

6.7
11.0'
423.4

..

..

__

,.""
,AvgAnn1PIERda

AYgAnn'PIFFOR:da
AvgAnn'Div'dY"1MI
TotIiRnw1UI($rIID)A

CD
no
NW
,.F OII.lrll:oml'''')
63.1\ 65.5\ 15.0% 15.0% _,11_'
149.5 123.1
131l
14> NII""fi1IlnIIIJ
34.1'
29.1'
)0.2% JO.'" NltProfitMInrin
B.O
.
Ni
Hi Cop1aIGIin~"1
2664
2581
1150
175D Lou.&RulED($nIi1I)"
1220 1050 fNJI
fJIJI lonlTll'lllo.bt~J
1611 1555
1100
1150 Sltr, Frlllltv
'SmIIII
15.3" 80.1% 17.0% as.O% DiY'dl DId'd 10FFO H
60%
7.3% 1.0% I.Q" E!pInSls10As5lts
7.0'1. 6.3% LO% l5% AmrnanTot.llCap'
9.2% 7.9"
lO% '.0% RIPnOllShr.Equily

75,000 shiRhoIdn;
800 ~
,"vBH'nenllrusl: 5pec;ializ- an estimated 8.5% 01 cormon

15.0

10.5
lO%
&OlI
NW
15.0%
/GO
11.5"
H'
1350

f.

1150
15.01
lO%
I.OK

1f.0%
coniol

0f'I'Dn & e1recUn


Merchilnt Navy Oft'!CW's

stoa..;

ing ill till ownenhip of IK:mJe-pnxIucing CXlIII'T1UinIy shoppiIg eMtars and Il'lII proplries (36 riP, squa18f8IJl). Top taMnl!i WIctide nrIiIiklr Krrart (less than 5% nN8I'lue~ Food li:ln, krogd'
(less IJan 2"~ Will-Mart Ind Wl1n-DixiB (Bss than 1%).Has about

PensiJn Fund, 4.8% (1ISl); stit:hIi'Ig PensDenfonds, 3.0% (est.).


Cham'ln; WMam Newman. PresiSent i1nd CEO: Glenn Ruhno.
Adlhss: 1120 6th Ave., N.Y., N.Y. 10036. Telephone: 212-&893000. Internet: YMW.newplanexceLg)m.

New

lhird quarter. Also. the company is


selling some of ERTs assets that have had
low returns of 3%-4%. Management expeets to complete
these sales within the
next 20 months, freeing
up capital
for
more profitable ventures.
The disposition of New Plan"s garden
apartments
should allow the company
to focus
on Its core retail strategy.
New Plan recently announced the sale and
late October closing of its garden apartment portfolio, for $380 millIon. This
should leave New Plan better positioned to
refocus efforts on Its retail and shopping
center business. Also, the company plans
to sell additional assets, and redirect the
funds
to redevelopment
of its core
properties.
These
neutrally ranked
shares
have
advanced by about 10'% since our last
report.
1his may reflect investor
optlmlsm about New Plan's future strategic
direction. Although
our prt!Jeclions
cur
rently indicate that this stock has belowaverage appreciation potential for the next
3 to 5 year.;. It offers a high dlvtdend yield
and worthwhlle
total retW'n potential.
Adam Rasner
October 26, 2001

Plan
Excel
Realty
reported
Sr OebtICap'l
Funds
.33:1
.34:1 mixed
second-quarter
results.
Some
Tolal DebllEquiy
.38:1
.39:1
weakness
was
evident in the company's
PORTFOUOCONDmONYearAgu liltesf
top llne. Total rental revenue was flat for
MtgesRepaid in Quarter
$1.9
$71.4
the perlod, year over year. most likely due
Real EstIl8Acq.
$23.4
$7.9 to a slowdown in the broader real estate
Develop. inv.
-NJA markets. Also, average armual base rent
F~I
Lo.IIISlREALESTm~"I'
per square foot decreased slightly on a
~~ r.31 JudO Sn.30 011:.31
sequential-quarter basJs .. Occupancy levels
1191~
2SOSG2549 2667
far the total portfolio have decUned some1999 2675 2678 2637 2664
what, but remain relatively stable, at
zooa 2635 2546 2532 2581
about 90%. New Plan's bottom line was
2011 2564 2203 2550 2f5Q
also weak..
Total net income for the'
ZOOZzm
2515 2575 Z71'
quarter declined by about 25%, year over
Fiscal EAlUrlHiSPERSHARE....
Fill year. due pdmarlly
to slow portfolio
lI.r.31 JudO ~.3D Dtc.31~
growth and reduced property sales. Conse1198 .35G .J8G .39 .38
1.50 quently. earnlngs per share for the period
.38
.29 .32 .43 1.42 declined significantly. Excluding property
2DOQ
.25
.34
.30
.25
1.14 sales.
however, earnings for the quarter
2011 .25 .25 .34
.31 1.zo were essentially flat. A better perlormance
2002 .32 .JJ
.35 .3S
1.35 measw-e in this case, is funds from operaCD- GOARlERLYDIVIlENDSPAilD.
Full lions (lorD), which increased
slightly. by
IhdIr IIJ,31 JIIn. set..3D' Dtc.3t
Y.... 4%, for the quarter.
1917 .301
.36
.363 .365
1.45 The
company
bas fully purchased.
1.
.368 .'!T
.748..
1.49 ERT. Its development subsidiary. New
'199 .40
.403 .405 .408 1.62 Plan recently acquired the outstanding 5%
2100 .41 .413 .413 .413 1.65 interest in ERT, and will Include )00% of
2101 .413 .413 .413 .413
ERT in consolidated
nnand.a1 results in

1.
.r=

431

13.8
6.8

CI lilli, v.- !.)Ie


THE. P\IBl..ISHER IS MlT RrsPONsIIlL
tOR Nf'r E.RRORS O~ CMSSIONS H[RE.IN. TlIi5
II ..,lItrepndad..-M. _Cl~1I11lJ
....... dlaur'Kliabs
_ClII5IIIIIDr

Apprnx. e11V".pnt dates:.-ty Jan., Apt., July,


CompaftY'w,FIn.nciIJ StNnQtfl
OCt. -o1V" I8l11V.pian aYiIIl tE) In millOfIS- (F)
Stock's PriastUlity
Bel. dep and i1!. fGJ Prr>-otrrlI est Of!)'. esl
prq GtDwth ,.1WiItenct
(H) Com Ov'dJNI+Dep.-+{gain&Jss) on prop.
~EamillP
',ldictablity
I'IIIiItIIe IlIIII Is ptMlIeII1lIIlIIIII
~
rI atry kn1
15 5h:Iy b!llbll:libll''s
-..
~
iIrtBMl __ NIl paI1
,

I "
: II:
1I ......
""fIi'I!II .............
W'lall
p:lIIkI:L

$047,03, $0013; Q2, $046, 01,1044, '99,


CK, SO52; 03, $0.51, OZ, $0,57; Q1, $0 55:
fC) 1nd. jW\"1I. b m. loss. alt. .. '95. fDJ Nawl
drw ~
nd-Hav Goes ex about Dee. 19th.
I'IItlhmIq, Int. .... riqIU reeI'ftll'. rK1llli ....
15 olUnd Inn ~
10 tie

(A) F"r.!ICIIl,.. (July 31st) tM:Iugh 1997 (B)


DiUI8d 8ill'nII]S. Basi: 8ilmmgI '91-00 NRXI

np:lff dw ~
Foods Fn:m 0pI0tiln (FFO) '01, Q2, S 013;Q1, $0.41; W, 04,

the

It
95
5
80
I I

OLD NAT'L BANCORP NDQ.OlDB

..

3 Rar.rd l1M1
1 ..."",
...
3

TllEUIlES.

SAFETY

_~1"""

TECHNICAl.

aETA .&0 OlIO. MlrbI)

2_

BI",

pr;"
.5
35

--

PROJECT1ONS
Ann'TabI

...,
-~I:~-'
...,

....
1=1 f."
"'"

High:

0.0

Low:

B.'

11.7

9142

"'.,

"

9393

9151

13.5
11.3

B.O

f
23811r
Ill)

RAOO 14 2(Tri~i11
J WJ%O.741~ 2.9%
41

17.1

17. ,

132

162

17.0
16.0

19.5

lB2

Medlil1:

28.3

33.0
24.7

18.9

LEGENDS
11 0 I [aning5 P sh
. . .. ReIIlNe PKe S*eJgtI
l-IDr2 spl 51!19
~

i1tJueJ

... .111
t

L..--

........
..

31.8
23A

31.7
20.9

T_,..

27.S
19.4

2000

PriI:. Ibnge

2005 2006
80

'~:rsm

Insid.r Decisions
F .....
JJ ... SO
....1..
1 1 2 0 000
1 0
. "'.,
000 000 000
001
0 0 0 0 0 0
Iru;Ututlonal DlICIslons
2m.,
10'01
PafCllnt 3.0
ZT
ZT .h.....
22
2.'
38
28
1.'

'i.

I~CENT
PRICE

I,'

1'"1',,

- -- - -- -- - --

---_.

1B

12

"I"

.... .... ...

'"
2.

20

.1.....

.... ,..."

80
80
40

"'."

t~_

......

...

"

..

"B

..
.......

... .....- -
B

....

'" TOT.RE1URII1W1
1Y'.
, Y'.
, Y'.

""'"

12.5

5.3

30.'
10.1

46.'

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199516
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .YALIifUNEP1J8 ~C.
.. .66
.72
.70
.95
.94
1.15
1.39
1.51
I.ID
.63
.68
.82
1.00
.97
1.15
1.38
1.1~ Eln*lgs pII' IIIA
U5
.. J5
31
.33
.33
.34
.40
.46
.65
18
.30
.38
.44
.48
.50
57
.62
.u Div'dl DKfd pII' III
.JIJ
.. ,.99 5.25 559 5.73 5.14 62'
6.81
'7.35
7.54
8.94
8.13
9.53
9~3
9.45
9.89 la..
I1.ID 8'" YoIuo P'"''
.l2.5
.. 13.94 25.96 17.17 30.44 3UT 32.79 38.31 '~92 48.53 5267 51.26 5O.OS 49.81 52.14 53.33 11.45 .UO Canmon Sh. OUtll'lI
UDO
.. 14.0 15J
1~1
13.0
133
133
15~f
11.5
16.8
152
19.5
13.6
18.9
19.1
A'1l Ann1P1E Rda
f7.0
17.'
.. .95 1.02 1.13
.96
.n .81 .19 1.15 1.12
R_PIE
....
1.09
1.01
1.02
1.1
'2'
;;0;
.. ~8% 3]% 3J% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% V% 2.'% ~,% ~7% ~6% 2.2% 1.9% 21% 23%
AVII Allin' DiY'drllld
2695.1 3192.4 3714.5 4152.1 4822.5 5366.6 5686.' 6166.0 6982.9 8167.7
9250 T"';~,I~)
ffSDO
CAPITAL STRUCTURE uof!ll3OlV1
1566.2 1799.0 2136.8 2!>133 2997J 3479.3 3156.0 41128 4780.9 6274.5
LT o.btS918.4 mil.
DUR In 5 YIS NA
1150
I5DO loins ....
LT IntI:rest $57.6 mil
29/l
101.3 127.4 144.1 159.4 181.2 203.8 219.2 214.9
269.9
300 Not In1onot In'I~)
37.
138.'
l T Dl!bf iJcI. $SO mil. guarclilteed pM. beI'Ietl:ial
8.3
5J
5.0
6.1
11.0
27.0
11.
11.5
26.0
2.5.0
loin t.OIl PrUY'n (IniI)
3$.0
int.esta W1l1Ub.
debs.
17~
13.8
327
44.8
29.7
392
47.1
54.6
61.5 101.7
.10
ffS
150
Penlon l1abllttJ $3.9 mil. in 'UOft. $.7 mil. II
91.7 109.5 1272
142.8 1523
158.1 185.6 228.0
U5
UO
300
7"
154.'
(lnoII)
27.0
362
425
46.0
51.7
602
60.7
71.7
82.1
87.4
lDO
IIlI NotPtoIl
145
PId Slocll None
28.4% 26.1% 23.2'1' 27.t"
24.0% 25.5% 24.'" 24.'" ~TuRD
29.4'
28.6" 282%
2'""
1.137. 1.147. 1.11" 1.0710 1.121. 1.D71o 1.16,.. 1.18'" 1.00" 1.1'"
1.15% Reun ClIITGlIIAuIII
1.2.5lI
1."'"
Cammon Sloct 61,488,000 shl.
.- 663.0 9132
54.5
70.1
74.6 112.1
815
915
flDO
1500
".9 76.6
(Ad~ b' 5% sit. diVd, payablll1125J02)
204.7 260.7
315.6 365.9 428.1 458.5 'm
494.6 492.7 626.3
lIS
720 !hr.
~
102.5
MARKET CAP: $1.5 billion (Mid Cap)
7.5%
8.7% 85%
8.9'1. 85%
8.4% 8.0%
7.1%
lOll Shr, Eq. to TCIIaIAIM"
8.8"
7.5"
7.'"
'.OlI
68.5% 71.&"
7a", luu to TotAssIIs
58.1" ,.,.,% 57.S%- 50.8% 622% 64.8% 66.1% 66.7%I.9.5li
ASSETS{$mHl)
2DD<J 113D1fJ'
Loans
4780.9 6274.5
6190.8
132% 13.9\ 135% 12.6% 12.1'
13.1" 12.7\
14.5% 16.8% 14.0"
15.0% Rim on Shr. EauItv 14.0%
Funds Sold
12.8
13.5
18.0
1.9%
8.1% 8.6"
7.1% 8.0"
9.4% 10.6%
7.4"
7.6'
7.8"
1678.7 1811.8 2080.5
SeaJrilies
1.5" RninMl to COlI Eq
_.
.. 40% 37% 36% 41% 41% 39% '0"
Other Earning
3.6
35%
37%
JIll ADDlY'dsto Nil ProI
41"
44"
654.5
OIhe'
508.' 668.1
BUSI\I!SS: 0Il:I Natbnal Bancup Is regional bank hokilng com- 91JM11, ban Dss reseM! was 1.15"" or loans; nonpl!l1tm*1g asUABIUTIES(SmIlL)
Deposits
5071.3 6583.9
..... 3 pan)' wlh 148 banblg oI"lC8S& 260 An.! IT'BChines II Indiana, II- sets & past due loans, 1.01%. As 01 121"31100,2.873 1lIIl~,
financil.1 25,008 shareholdn. OI"an & di'a::bs own 3.08"" of e:tI'IVfI)Il
Funds Borrowed
673.9
559.8
817.8 me, KenU:ky', Terlnessee" Oho, and ~lllOnbank
863.0
913.2
918.4 seMces .mBtes. Loen palfolD: amnwd:II, 25%; lXIIWTIfJl'Cill sb:k (P!tD:y', 3101). Chairman & CEO: JA RiIiIgw. PnsDmt::
~TermDebt
Nl!t orth
492.7
626.3
650.6 raal 85labl, 29%; residerrliallTKl'\lage, 30%; lDISurn_, 115%.Nvt RB. liInk1ml. lnc.: IN. Adcnss: 420 "a ... Sl, EVilInsvillt, IN
Othet
B2.0
845
87.7
bm losses, .39"" of ~lIIlIIIge loans and ...
in 2000. As of 47708. Tel: 812-464--1442, Intsmet WWIfr.,*,MIionill.am.
Tolal
6982.9 8787.7
8943.8
Loan Loss Resrv.
73.8
75.4 Old National, like most other banks in
57.0
which is expected to result in significant
Put
Est'd ... 00 the manufacturingintensive
Midwest,
losses. Stlll, quarterly loan loss provisJons
ANNUAL R4TES Put
5Y... 1D'I4-'1I
llYn.
Df chlr\il (pIIo"'1
seems to be facing a. more challenging
may remain a bit higher than normal until
lDan.
B.O% 11.5%
8.""
operating envirOlUDent. Net Interest in- business conditions bnprove.
Eamngs
8.0,,"
7.5%
in operating
come In the September quarter
was We look for reductions
DMdend3
B.O%
7.5%
15~
BookV .....
5.5% 5.0%
9.0"
restrained by slower commerdal and COll- expenses to support
continued. earnTolBl Ass8ts
6.0%
8.5%
5.5"
sumer Joan
and by the ongoing ll- lngs
in 2002. The consolldaUon
1985

..

......::: ....--

....

..

...

fl.,

"10"

.........,

--:" no:

u'"

~i=~.\~l

...

"''''
"'"
..'"

''''

'"'

a."

....,

c.~

LDMSg,"'p.30)
1Iar.:!1 Jun.3O

till
II9t
2000
2001

3798
4425
5818
6191

Dec. 31
3855
39/18 4112
4620
4780
4738
S956
6190
627.
0150
6259
6191
2102 liDO &100 OJDO 'SGO
EARWlS I'Ell SIWlf"
Co\Dec.:!1
.ndar IIlr.31 Jun.30 ~;:30
.33
.37
.35
.34
119t
.39
.39
.39
.37
.37
2000
.38
.38
.25
.35
2001
.41
.43
.41
2002
41
.43
AI
QIIARTERLT
INVIIENOS
PAIlI'
c...
Dec.31
endillr IIlr.31 Jun.30'S;~30
1917
.12
.12
.12
.12
.126
.126
.126
.126
1919
.132
.147
.147
.147
.154
.154
.154
.154
.162
2001
.162
.162
.162

,.
,.

/AlB ....

oed ....

_"...

....... ~

Full
y",
1.39
1.51
1.38
1.6(1

1.75
Full
y",
.48
50
51
.62
.65

__

,rowth.

vowth

a residential mortgage loans of Old s bank operaUons from six regions


of a strategy to improve the asset to three, which entails reducing the workmix). Lower stock rnacket valuat10ns and force by 100 employees and closing 10 ofreduced brokerage activity hurt tn.1St and flees, is expected to lower annual operatinvestment fees.. We don't look for much ing costs by $7 m1l11on.And an accounting
improvement in loan demand and invest- change should add nine cents to share net.
ment income untll business activity ac- Note that all per~share IJf:Ure5on this page
ceJerates, perhaps by spring. And mort- have been ac:!fusted for the upcoming 5%
gage income, aIdeci by falllng interest rates slock dividend, payable on January 25th.
in 2001. might grow more slowly in 2002 . The View to mid-decade
remains
faBut once economic activity picks up. the vorable. In the past few years, Old has
past year's efforts to roordinate
the taken measures lJl strengthen the balanc:e
delivery of trust.., investment. and insur- sheet. lower costs, and accelerate fee in
ance services should support fa$ter growth
come growth that should result in a more
in fee income.
efficient,
less spread-income..<J.ependent
Asset quality shouldn"t be a .problem
bank. Although only ranked Average for
for Old, however. Its problem loans and TImeliness, conservative
investors may
loan losses have risen from the extremely want to consider Old shares 01' their low
low levels of 2000. But most of the rise In volatility and worthwhUe total return
nonpecforrnlng loans In the September In- potential to mid..<J.ecade.
tec1m stenuned from two credits. neither of Theresa Brophy
December 28. 2001
""' ... ' .... /81__
d_"K"~1"88'.B9,1l2,~3~~
=tlon

ckJdes llCOIne (.D,S) tom disalrrtinued opI!lI'a- m88lng .boul ....n. 24. Goes IlIt about Feb. 28. '95, "96, '97, 1J8, '99, '00, '01, '02. IC) In milirm: '98, (SO.18); '99, $0.09; a:l unusual Dividend payment didl!ls: about the 15th d mns.8djuskldfCl"stockspMsllllddMdends.
gall (ch;qe): '00, ($0.40); 'U1, ($0.10). Next PlII11d1,June, Septemt8' and DeambIa'. Pm
o ZUll, VMIe Lne ~
TllEPUBUStERI5I1TRE
till.,
_1IpIIIlIDlL II!5llIi ..,_

rr-

- -

~M5 ni!lIlI!Wd. F8dIIII "'*'laI ~ IIblined


SlIUIteS ~
10 be RIiItIIe ..
is ~
U ORNfi[RRORSOROMISSIONSH[R[I'.ThispJ:lli:ltiani5*dJ'''~~CIWn,na:H:O:"liW:'''''''IISe.
---.,
i1-r" ..........
-. t:l1lSd b
'. ~.".

.atUIl. nrIIIIIies

t*d"lI'Ii'

III

i.2' opM
VIII.

'..a flI'dz1

100
65
80

stock's Price StabIlity

PrteeGrawlhP.rsiltence
Eamings PrddUilttJ
I

I'.

:11:

11-.

PENN. R.E.I.T. NYSEPEl


4

TIlruNESS

TECHNICAL
.etA

~ed

J.!

High: I
Low: t

&l3l.1I1

2 ..... ,_

SAfIl

22 .,20dPIRAID
15 O(lniin
145)
IIedi...HMF
B:

IRECENT
IPRICE
27.81
13.31

22.31
15.3'

23.6
19.0

30A
22.0

25.4
17.6

23.6
16.5

25.0
18.8

Ann'lTctaI
RItum

'r

".,

DJFM"MJJA

..

TotaIlntemt

1Q2Wl JIII.1
Xl

2i

Perwnt
aha..._

17
2438 ~

. 5
3.0
1.5

(75% d Cap'O

..... ,1

32

20
"
16

' ..
".

$25.5 mil

P.nslon LJability NlA


PrdStocll:NOII8
Com. Stock 15,703,227

""

I.

""

Institutional Decision.
19
22T3

2006

..'.-"

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
..
110001000
11111 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

24
28
2431

2005

12
10
'" "

tilly

iMhii.

2004

"'.

Insider Decision.

.. ..,
II'.

r.rv-t Price Range

25.0
18.3

r,

r: ~ I~l ~~
a..

19.8
'4.8

50

PROJE.'~~,S
GaIn

21.7
14.0

0 89 DlV'D
YlD 9.3%

=~:.f~

3 ''''' ,.""

Price

25.3
18.15

PfRAID.

LE.GENDS

(l1IO. IIMt.tI)

27.3
20.8

RElAIlVE

mil. ShiUeS (25% of Cap'l)

I ~

..

"...

"'TD1.RETUR.UIOl

1yr.
3yr.
5 yr.

lHS

l.Mml

37.8
55.9

26.3
55.1

....
... _
33.9
-10.6

I~~i:r
26.461~m 19.7(:~iJ~)WRl%1.171~ 5.4%

ROUSE CO. NYSE.RSE

3 l.oIII!Iedll1lJ,lJ)
3 """111_
3 'M.".,

THEUNBS

SAFElY
TECHNICAL

.u.

High:
lOW:

LEGENDS
_ _ Reine

~~

.60 {I.Jl11_Mlrt.liQ

2_

Gain~\

11511

....
Pm

22.3
13.3

lB.8
11.3

21..3
15.0

20.0
16..3

22.8
17.6

32.3
18.3

33.0
25.8

35.7
23.1

r.rget Price Range

29.5
23.6

2004 2005 2006


lOll

..
80

~~

o000000000
J F II A

II

J A

,,1:1,

54

111111'

"lll "

" I

""

"11

I,. "

, "

"II"

"

II

1 1 1 5 1 2

,"

1993
13.6ll
111
d27
U1
.62
18
d1.85
41.56

3.5%

573.5 591.1 646.8


2.. d15.S d1.3
53.9'
.
NMF
NMF NMF
P.ltSlon L1ablDlyNone
2118.8 2821.4 30102
Pfd Stoc:k$202.5mill. PfdDlY'd$10.2ml.
86.6 96.0 108.0
4.05 mil shs. 6% SllriB5 B pfd., ea. CY.I'rto 1.311 2312.6 2191.5 2411.1
!ills. mmnn at $311.125
a share.
(5% 01Cap'1)
17.3 d34.11 113.2
Common Stock 69,065,100sits. (10%of CBp'ij
4.1%
3.9% . 0%
as of 1116101
IllA.RKETCAP: 51.8 bilion (Mid Cap)
14.0%
NMF
L

~~ivables
Investment

iI3OI01

1191

;g
4194.1

~~j.ll:g

4069.5 3832.8

R.E.

=c:-:r

~:IlrT1ES

247.3

ble

3172
3471~~

Other

260.5 401.9
362.3
31B2~~

502.6
3580~~

A'

~MF

--

NtE

NMF

NMF

1994 1995 1996 1997


14.11 14.04 12.46 13.90
1.42
1.34 1.31 3.91
d.14
d.18
.14 2.59
1.n 226 2.09 2.U
.68
.80
.88
1.00
18
Z7
1.86 414
d2.14 d3.81 2.65 3.93
41.51
1.92
.14 66.91

NMF 11.4

NMF
.66
3.1% .
3.6"
3.4"

0'

6112 6n.8
6.6
5.9
SOb' 42.5'
1.0%
3144.0 3219.3
19.5
97.8
2404.7 2556.1
9S.0
42.6
4.5% .3%

.9,

12

"'YaT.

I-

VL-m

m~

:IT

1998 1999 2DOO 2001 2002 cVAL\lEUHfPJB,~C.


_
13.53 14.68 15.68 15.10 15.15 GrosIRrnnunF-1tl
11.
2.45
3.24 3.63
155
11$ ncuh ReM"p.... h
""aD
"1.34
1.n
211
1.40
1.ID Enin;lperlh
II
110
2.69
2.91
3.30
U5
110 FundlhmOps,.,1h
.f,40
1.12
1.20
1.32
1,.12 1M DiYdIDld'd~"
0
1.1D
4.55
336
3D9
3..
3 .. CIp'_gpor"
...
5.90
6.11
6.30
US
7.(10 BooIIYllulpwlh
US
7223 70.69 67.
.9.1.5
.15 COlTIMOIlShlOutlt'lIl'
71H
221
13.4
10.9 ''''!!'It-- A.gAnn'PIERI1io
HIE
1.15
.78
.n
R_P/Rd.
HIE
3.8%
5.'"
5.5"
.
A~ Aft"'1 DiY'dY1tk1
1'"

831.9 930.1 9nl


17.9 189.9 "105.2
59.0'
..
22' 20.4' 10.8"
38681 3611.1 531.0
47.4
90.1 42.0
2908.4 2151.5 3109.0
m.1
465.5 628.9
41"
9.4% 4.6%

=~

1037.8
141.2
Nf.I=
13.6'
4644.3
491
3399.8

10641
1010
168.3
110
.1,
NW
15.8" 10.2"
4440.8 5lIOCI
37.6
.U
2956.2 .1250
638.6 630.5
.50
6.7% 8.0% t5%

1105 GrouRennuu(W)

18 N"PnlIl~
NIIF InCDrHTu RIll
11.3" NIIProI1I1....
5300 GmlI,:=t,
a.D Caml

1115
110
NW

111"
(~

~!Nl

_
Y.D

400II
110

U"
115%
U"

""

BUSINESS: Rouse Company acquies, d8Vet0ps, owns, and man1Ig_ proper1les i'1 2S sta1Bs, WaslHngton D.C . and Canada, nc:lud-

2,409 stIafehoIden (2/221t11). orran


& dnctn
own 1.37% 01
carmon slocll; Frankl... ResoIn:es, 1155%;AriII Capial MaMg8-

conmunitj' II8IiII" Las Vegas, NY. Rouse b9l3ne a .. 1es1iItIt in'#'IIRnent tus1 (RBT) on 111198.Had 3,7491lrTlp1oyees (121J1~);

dress: 10275 l.1tIi Patlillent Pkwy., CoUnbil,


phone: 410-992-6000. InlrJrn8t www.~.crrn.

:u:~:-:s&i1~=:~u::~oe;ts:.:s::=

=).1~~a~,

~r-a:

IBooI<~:..:;V_;=~=;l;;:s;~:;""'l,,'.5,.~:,:_,,.,....;~r::::.._4

1.

..-..-...

(A)R9'f'. fro op' . (8) Dl shs. Ne:d egs.rep't ;


Nov. 5th. (C) E"gs bet. depr. & dllJ'd toces 'tiI
'97; FFO trnnalH. '00, Q1, $0.82; Q2, $0.82;
C3. $0.79; 04, $0.86. '01,Q1,$0.83;Q2,
CIZlllIl, We IiIe NlistJiIq, .. AI ntu recrnd.

RETURN 1ID1

llIS

3300 LoallT.-m
110 StIr. EDIrltv (Id)
U% RI'IDn on ToWCap'!
_ '._
1.0% 13.7" 10.1\ 40.8" 16.1% 22.1\ 26.1% 11.0% 11.0" Rnrm on Shr. Eauitv

-NMF 42.9% 3.7%


9.7% 15.1% Nil%
2.5% RminedlDCcrnEq
NMF NMF NMF 41'
85"
10% 62% 100% 101 AJlDtv'ds'oNttProf

Jj;~ 4~g:~
4~~

~=r~sh)

II

20
16

....

Rouse
appears
reasonably
well
prepared to face a retail operating enANNUAL RATES Pat
Put Est'd ... 00 vironment that has become more chal11Yrs.
~;~
lenglng recently. Although retail sales
"Cash Flow"
1oi:
1B.5%
7.5"
declined in the week following September
~~
27.5%
.2.5"
11th, business at the mmpany's regional
retaU centers has largely bounc:ed back. To
r.
be sure, some of the w-ban centers have
c.lQUAR1ULyRYBftlSI'''')A
Full been hurt by the ralloff' in tourism., and
.1Idu Mu.31 JudO Sep.30 Dec.J1 V.. r propects for the upcoming holiday .season
1991 m.1
'lZl.7 m.2 255.2 m.2 are unclear. But Rouse has already ob1199 269.7 249.8 255.0 263.3 1037.8 taJned commitments for about 8096 of its
2000 251.7 255.4 260.2 280.2' 1064.2 lea"ies that expire in 2002, and for most of
2001 272.8 269.8 ZIG
277.4
the new space to come on stream at Its
2002 ZrJ5 27D 275 215 1105 Fashion Show mall late next year. MoreCoJ. '.3~un.30SPERS,~.SH~j~=--.1 Fill over, Rouse spent the latter half of the
nd.,
V.r Nineties upgrading its retaIl centecs and
19911
.46 .37 .11
.24
1.34 selllng underperforming malls, so there is
1999
.34 .37 .32 .73 G11.n a greater proportlon of "Class A" space
2DDD .40 .45 .91
.42 "2.21 (likely 10 remain In strong demand) In Its
2011 .41
.34 ..JO
.J5
UD cWTent portfoU.othan in the past. Barling
2002 .35 .31
.41 ..f3
1.10 further
economIc deterioration,
Rouse's
COIl- QUARTERLYDN'I)EtmSPADD
Fun
retail property operations should hold
endar IIIlr.31 JU".30 SeD.30 DK..31 Ytheir own in the next rew quarters, and
1117 .25 .25 .25 .25
1.00 strengthen after mid-2002.
1991 .28 .28 .211 ,211 1.12 Prospects
for land sales in ZooZ are a
1999 .30 .30 .30 .30
1.20 bit hazy. Sales of properties near Las
I ~
.~,
.~
.~.33
1.32 Vegas 10 home developer.; may be helped
SlkhoidersEquily

Tatlt

"

..... at= lE
1992
12.63
1.11
d.33
1.11
.60
.51
d.14
47

4.~

CAPrrALS'TRUCTUREasof6i30.G1

LI

,,11"".

,"

Total Debt S3580.8mil.Tota'~LS231.0mill.


Ind. $137.0nill 9.25%mandatmyredel!!lmllble
~==;r~seariJes.(B5%ofCaP'J

ASSETS("

," ... ".

~,;:-,
,:~
:~J :: ::

l--+---'W"-c,.,--f-!-:Jj:.+--+---f--l----+--+---f--f--+---t--i--t--+--+
".

1 1 0 0 0 1 4 0 2
2 2

I ""

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199D 1991


5.30
7.26
8.14 9.63 10.32 11.00 11.90
.58
.82
.81
1.17 1.16
1.08 1.41
.23
.35
.20
.37
.16
d.07
.05
.81
1.07 111
1.31 1.19
1.04
.rr
.36
.40
.52
.52
.56
.60
.60
2.39
"LTl
4.02
1.16 121
1...
.99
1.14
1.11 U6
U1
1.10
.53
.36
46.55
.1
1.
1
47.97 48.1
.9
NMF NMF NMF NM'
NMF

NMF
NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF

NMF
2.4% 2.0'
2.3'
2.4'
2.1%
3.cw. 3.4'

27.1
20.1

s-mglh

Institutional Decision.

27.8
19.8

PROJECl!ON_

Ann' TatIl
Price
Reun I
Hip ME ("'110% 24"
.11
loW
3~ . 1+30% 12%
Insider Decisions
.. ..,.
...

26.5
10.8

/1$0.87.
(D) Ned diw'dIIlIlefg about Nov. 29. Ex
date about Dee. 12. Ojy'd payml: BsI: bus. day

~'~E~~i~=.'I~~O~~
MO 21044. Tee-

by low mortgage rates, possible gains in


new residents from CaIiliun.la, and land
purchases by developers that need. to
replenish the.lr inventories. But the tim.lng
or transactions is always difficult to forecast, and it's unclear if land sales in 2002
will beat the 2001 level, which appears
likely to set a record.
A significant
portion of Rouse's office
properties
are near
Washington
D.C.
We expect demand in that market to
strengthen.
We are
caudous

regarding

prospects

for the balance


of 2001 and for the
new year. and now look for FFO per
share of $3.55 this year and $3.10 in 2002 .
Net eamlngs probably will decline in 2001
(due to higher deferred inmme taxes and
lower gains on sales of noncore properties),
but should Improve by m1d-ZOOZ.
Rouse shares JDay not be suitable for
very consenradve
investors, given the
reduced. year-ahead visibility for the retaU
property sector. But those able to put up
with some short-teon
volaUUty might
want to consider the issue for Its decent 3to 5-year total return potential.
Theresa Brophy
October 26. 2001

(G) Q'b1y EPS do naI. i:lCa.I due kl chlnge in ~~OIIlPuy's


financlalar-glil
Ihs'IH) Incl. reversal del. 1aJl , $158.4
stDc ..... PricII Statllity
Man:h, June, Sept., &.bout Dee. 20, (EJ 3- kl ma, 2.05Ish.(Q Qu-wrty sales do not. equal
PI1ceGrowth ~rs""C11
5-yr.prD range, FFO x 10.0.(f) In ~
mIa'dUe to mange In aeetg. for l8taU ops..
Eamlnp Pradictl.bilty
r~~ lJIMaIiII is ~
1-. _
~
II w niIIUe -' iIi ~
.......
__ r*5. III MY Un1.

TIlE P\&.IStER !SHOT Rrtf'ONSIllElORAH'f ERRORSOR CNSSIONSHERE T1Ii5~


is sft:tJ blllbmiller's
_._~
iIIIIIMI u.. fikl pM!
,

"
: II.
d IIII)' lie ItjIOIM2ll.lt'SlIIIL"
III ~
i111l)' pnR4 dIs::IIant III IIIIa
III lIMIi b 9lftI*lg III ~
Ill)' p"*d. tRdi:lM ~
-.a III ,,1IllD;L

100
45
25
II'

SIMON PROPERTY GP.

3 RI~lI!WlIl

TfllEUNESS

JiS

PROJECJ!ONS
,,""'ITotaJ
Price

l'%'

...

(I.llll .. lIlIU)

.-

22.3

28.0

22.5

26 .
22.5

27.1
21.5

50.'
20.4

25.8

GaIn

ReIlIm

..

DJF.A.JJA

..

1 [)
[) [)
1 1
Institutional

TobIl D.bI$10788 mill. Due In 5 Yrs $1214 mill


TotIIlntl:NSI $600.0 ml.
Ca")

~''''f

PId Stocll $538.7 mill. Pfd. Dlv'd $35.0 mil.


Ind. 4.830 mi. shs. 6.50% 5lIrilIS B pfd, 1!llI..
(4% ofCap1)
into 2.588 shs. com.

01.

(17% or CaP')

MARKETCAP: SI.! biD. (Large Cap)


FUNDS FLOW ($mill.)
'991 '909 2098
Net praftl Plus
Noncash chalgeS
-497.5 709.1 m.'
Investments Replllid
46.1
511.7 164.6
3782.3 2168.1 147-4.5
Net New Debt
New Equity
114.6
I.
12

602.6

236 .5

"'.3
.... 3 515.8

2004 200.

542.5

FINANCIAl POSmoN 12131l1li


121311DO
Senicr Debt (mil.)
$8768.9
$8728.6
..
.Subordinated Debt (mIL)
Sr Debtl'Cap'l Funds
2.7:1
2.8:1
Total DebCIEqui)'
2.3:1
3.0:1
L_
PORTFOUO CONDmoN
YearAQO
MtQes Repaid in Quarblr
NO
loss R81erw-'Mnvests.
Ni
H'
Non-Earn Ass8ls-%IInftSb.
NA
NA

2'"

."

.'1-

, 1

2'
20

I.

12
10

.. ....

1994 1995'96
1997 1998
1.18 2.:11 10.47
1.10 11.65
2.ll9
2.58 1,85
2.25
2.34
1.04 1,06 1.01 till
1.01
1.!11 1.96 2.12
2.01 2.01
11.17
23.31 34.79 "1.47 ,,,,a
8591 96,54 157.85 171.49 130,96

.. Tot

.".-

1999 2000 21=


2002
16.3 15.15 foUO 1100
3.06 328
14' U,
.IS
.IS
1.00 1.13
2.01 2.01
LID

1yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

...
""'"

...

u.

24.3
.(1.5
32.3

-10.!
26.3
55.1

cYALIlfUNEPIIIl .C.

"

- .........

-..:...

18.7

..""" f-

30,8 15.0 21.5


12.0 109
8.1
7.'
8,5% 7.8'
~
8>\
8.3'
6.5'
702.9 1001.6 1319.9 1700.9 1887.0
tl75
11.
44.8 51.6
75.7 104.1 133.7
125
45.6% 45.6%
832' 64.41 64.81 54,", ~.4'
134.6 203.1 243.5 317.4 347.4
'IS

11.1'
4.411

1.20

UII

10.00

2SlI."

AwgAIIn'll'tE Rlio
n.D
1..
AwgAnn' Pn:FD Rda
Ayg Ann' Dlv'd YiIId
R.... _(\mII)
4187 511.7
449
Ohr !neon. W'
31.0
200
..
.. 57.3% 62.8' 64.8%
Opntng IIIrgin
56.6%
..
.. 61.5 87.6 99.6
Nol Proii Ilnii,
..
.. 14.11 18.51 111.01 19.11 19.31 17.31 16.81 1721 17.'" 17.G No1Prol1b'"
lUll
..
..
..
..
..
..
,1
CopI1IIGoIn.
U
..
.. 1420.4 1904.5 12292 549U 7112.0 2559.8 13158,3 30627 13000 13"" u....&RI~EIt~1
lSOOO
..
.. 1457.9 1651.1 1624.1 38311 4687.0 7182.3 9124.1 9453.7 10000 '0000 LaogT ... _~)
11000
..
.. 19.6 101.7 319.7 19451 2251.3 4403.8 4365.7 4127.8 :JlJ7S 31.. SIn.
..
.. 91.1' 86.11 93.3% 84.4' 76.61 76.6' 68.4' 14.6% 11.0% DiY'dl o.d'd 10FFO
..
57.6%
..
..
.. 8,0'4 5.5' 2."
~6%
1.6%
7.5% IEmensu to Assm
7.5"
5,"
8.0'
7"
..
..
.. 10.31 10.9'
5.01
~6%
4.0'
3.9'
4.5"
'.6% R.un lIIlTutII CIP'
..
..
.. NMF N~F 7.4' 13.01 5.5% 7.3' 8,4' 6% 10.0% Rnam an SII'. Equity
'J.5lI
BUSINESS: Srnon Property GlOIIp, lnc. is an umblella parlmnhip
IlelShip on &'3OrU1.115 of Ei/3001, owned or hell' an n..-esI: i1 250
;ropties contaillng 185 mi. sq. It rI gross klasabllt _
1136
ntal estate Ilvestment 'n1st (UPRBl). Viii subsiiialy parblerships.
is engaged II the ownenhip, dflvebpmMl. management, leaslig,
states and II Canada & Ewope. About 2,500 IhlnhoIdars; 5,840
lICQUisiIiJn lInd expIInsion 01 Ilcorne-poducng
retail ~
empl tnc.: MD. Co-dIiIImIIn:
M. & H. Simn. CEO: D. SiI'Iln.
Acqul'ecl OeBamlo R8a1y, &'9196; COIJI(DtB PItIperly Inveskn,
PIes.: R SoIIoIIN. AddAIss: 115 W. Wuhingbl St, Indil.napois,
91241.l8. Owned 72.s", of the luiy inmrest i'I the opel'8tilg par1- IN46204. Tel.: 317.a38-1600. tnlllmet: www.sinon.cxm.
10.9
8.0'

24.4
10.6

RETURN 1ID1

Book VIIuI J*' Ib


Fwxllfnn Oplpwlhl'"
&'ninllll*lh
A
DiY'dl Ded'd ~ III ..
5U5
57.41 ~.14
... loin. &RI~ .It I*'oil
133,32 236.91 2<11.00 241.00 Cannon Shl Outst'll C
HIE

13.0

40
!2

"

c=

NMF
24.7
11.3
7.41

50

- -- - --

-- .

1.0

Simon Properly Group, In~ ISPGI was 1991 1992


..
..
fmmod on sept 14, ,993. On Doc. 20,
.w
..
.. 1!2
1993, ",,,,,1et8d an IPO 01 37.75 milli.n
..
..
shares of common at $22.25 a share for
M
..
..
..
$767.8 milion net and borrowed $259 mil..
.. 18.11
lion. The proceeds were used to acquire a
..
.. 7a<5
52.2% interest in Simon Property Group,
..
..
..
LP., a shop~n9 mail owner, developer, and
..
..
..
manager. SPG sold an add~onal 5.662 mil..
..
..
lion shares lor $118.4 miilionnet on Jan. 14,
..
..
..
1994 pursuant to an over-allotment option.
Acquired DeBartolo Realty on 819196.
..
.. 384,8
..
.. 40,1
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE u of 1I3OID1

Investments Funded
Oivi::lends Declarvd

..

'11'1 ~..I'I"

..". -."
9930

Common Stocll 235,900,466 shs.

.,1 ..

,.

I'

,.

[) [) [) [) [) [) [)
[) [) [) [) 3 [) [)
[) [) [) [) 3 [) [)
Decisions
101111
Pereellt
113 anr
71

r_rv-t Pric. Range

31.0
23 .

"
eo

.....S.
.... ''''''..
....:::'1112Jl,0393~1199~
...- ,.

..

..

..

,no

''''
"

'"

n,

H'

H'

H'

"""

4.7'

'"

velopers to dispose of the properties of the


bankrupt
Montgomery
Ward will contribute $0.06-$0.01 a share to results in 2001.
But this incremental income will probably
be offset by the losses of a 53%-owned
teclmology venture, to wire malls f.or
broadband aa::ess, whim had a first-half
loss of. $4.7 m1IIion. TIle tougher
operatlng
lO&IIS I RElI. ESTm: ~.,
climate
apparently
prompted
retailers
to
Kar.31 JudO So.30 o.c.31
defer investments in new technology (only
1998 7414 7376 11352 11560
nine, with about 3,000 stores, had signed
1," 12687 12699 13137 1343.
on at mid-ZOOt), causing the ventw-es
zoao 13366 13289 13200 13063
break-even point to be pushed further Into
21101 13036 12889 12100
the future.
21112 IJ11X1 t12/X1 133511 t1511Q
We now
Funds From OperaEARNltGSPERSHAREA
C.,
Full
tions to a
anee at a low- to mid1ar.31 Jun.30 SeP.30 Dec.3t Ysingle-digit
pace in both
20111 and
,32 1.02
1891
.11.
.21
.25
2002. A retall
sales pickup
by m1d-2002
,32
.21
.22
.25
tOll
1'"
should help. And lower interest rates have
,44 1.16
21
.24
.24
enabled Simon to refinance some.debt.
21101 .19
.21
.1Il
.%5
.'5
Nonetheless,
near-tena
the
limited
2002
.1Il
.12
.23
.IS
.JIl
visibility
in the retail
properties
secQUARlBlI.l DIYIlEIIIS PAIl"
C.,
Fill
tor may not appeal to very conse"-'3.endar Mar.J1 Jun.30 SeD.30 DK.31 Y.,
tive investors. And Simon shares dont
1997 .493 .505 .505
2.01
.505
currently stand out for either year-ahead
1998
.493 .505
.505
2.01
.505
perfonnance or asprectation to 2004-2006,
1,"
.505 .505
2.02
.505
.505
although the yicl is attractive.
,505
,505
.505 .505
2.02
Theresa Brophy
October 26. 2001
,525
2001 ,505
.525
(A) .............
cp, .........
<om.
pl Em. .15''''''. d.dlll22l!l6. (C) ~'.Ql.IO.7.;Q2.IO.79.
(GIQlll.EPS .... ' C... ~F
...
egs. 18P' No. 8. (BI Nal: C!rv'dn-.tilg about In mil (DJ Pro-fonna .. '93. eE) Ind. Ill. pall- sum due tl n::. shs. IH) 3- to
ill" prEs
SkIt;II'. rial StabIIIlJ
100

Nl

c.,
.....

,-

....,

27.9

P~

Inskl.r Decisions

..., ....

31.0
21.1

idDIfe5l~niIlrr

J:75~1
18"
"'20% 1'"

50
35

22.

_~I"~....=~~en;~

TECHNICAL

LEGENDS
1.Dll1 O"hnd~

28.651~ro33.3(~:~~) W~1.98~ 7.3%

I~ECENT
PRICE
High:
Low:

....,,,M!

SAFElY
BETA

NYSEsPG

ell

.bo~

Feb ..

v.w

about Feb. 1. Div'd

M.,. Aug.. N.... ":r.f.

CIZlIl1.
IiIe ~
THE PUBUSlRIS
HOT Rl
lit ~
rest*!. iIInd

III ..,

:%:ct

l/r-

Jan. 17. Goes

2lIIh"

Simon
Property
Group's
retail
properties
business has slowed down
in the past year. Weaker economic actlvIty In the first half of. 2001 caused retailers
to file ror bankruptcy or close stores at the
highest levels since )995. Over one millJon
square feet of Simons mall space was vacated In the first half., and Simon expects
to lose another 200,000 square feet by
yearend. To be sure, the worst may now be
over for Simon in tenns of new vacancies,
and
the
real
estate investJnent tnlst
(REfI) has been able to achIeve higher
rents fOf"released properties. But the further economic contraction in the U.S. since
mld-2oot suggests that the operating environment for retail property REITs wlll
remain dlfficult Into the new year. And the
effect of the events of September I) th on
the retail sector is stlll WlClear. When
retail sales activity eventually rebounds.
however. demand for Simon's hlgh-quallty
retail properties should strengthen.
"Opportunistic"
initiatives
are
a
mixed bag in tenns of their profit contributions. Not all are perfonnlng well at
present. The company estimates t.hat income from a Joint-venture with other de-

II

n8l's int. in op.

Ql, 10.71;Q2.

Po (

FFOIsharlI: '00, range based on FFOIsh

rJ::t O3.1ri.80; 04. $1.03; pori."'.

~~.
flCl" IIIIlIrIiIl is oIItIIined InIIII ~
ORNfY RRCRS OR ClIllISSl.ONSHlRlN.1lIIi
.......
RII5I*II i111lJ ~
'*dIllIliI: II _
.........
b

_St......

JI:

10.0. (

cp. , .... , .............

al':1a'"
pan

bIIirIeII to be nIiIbIe .. is JnIIliIed ....


.....-.s
i5 5ttIy ... SJIl5C:IitIa'I--.IlOI'I-UiN
......
iIUnIIlde.
-.tIIioIg WIJ~
.. *chri: ......... YftIi:r

gMII*'9"

ltd.

Prb

rD.... ~
Bel.

DI~

.+

Growth PwIotltllncl

'.

10

II:

II'

TOOTSIE ROLL NYSETR

TW.EUNES$

SAfTY

511...

TECHNICAL

"I'W1

laRrtllllllU1

9.0 I
5.61

LEGENDS
11.0. CI'1l

2~:'~/9~

lilI (1.00. M.Mt.~

Ill&

I~CfrNT
36.661~1ll25.8(=i

High:
Low:

14.0 I
6.61

AM'! TDIII
Prica
Glin
RItI.m
High
50
1+35%\
""
loiIr
40
"'10%1
Insider Decisions
100000000
000000000
0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2

Insttlutiol'llll Deer.lon.
12111

..lit
::..

48

larwt

81

1059~ 11~

17.2
12.1

17.4
14.6

29.0
16.1

43.8
25.6

0Cct.u m.:-s~

46.4
27.0

!milt
Be

, ,

IIII1

I.,"

,,,I

."

..

,
'.

",1'1'._ ." .
P.~",
.. har..

118~ lnlded

0.8%

50.4
35.0

,,,.,1

""
..

, .....

..'

",

"

"

.~.

"

.' "

'"

'.'

"" TOT.RETURIII.,

~-

'.5
3.0

'" ~ "'!' ~

1.5

1997
1.13
1.4ll
1.15

.14
.16

21l

.39

6.61

7.58
5t,;;j(J
26.6

8.37
:iI.-47
26.1

".'" "." ".Of


19.1

".'"

" .. "

1.10

.71\

l.lB
.5%
388.1
29."
1~8
61>
36.3%
11.4%
115.1
7.5
396.5
16.8'

.32

.34

.34 Cop'16pondingp ... "

9.09
10.30
1UO BoalYa!ul:pwsh
:xI.CO M.(J(I
SUO coramanSbOU!sf'g
ZJ.3 ~~
~_
AvgAnn1P/ERIio

1.'9
.6%

1.85

.1"

-,

.34

D
r;

_Ii_

R_. PIERa1io
AvgAnn' Div'dY'1Mt
410 SIIa(1nIHf) A

...
_

1UIJ
:ill.Df1
21.0

f.4ll
."'
NLI

396.8
427.1
uti
375.6
29<% 29.0~ n.""
an
27.4'
12.8
10.0 13.1
f~O
flO OopndU"'I"'O)
'U
11.1
15.1
70.0
100 No1 ProIt II<oiIl
110
60.1
36.4%
36.0"
35.11 31.CI" 31.0% ncor..lu
RaW
31.0%
161%
18.o,
17.11 11.'"
11.3% Nil Proltlllagin
f7~
153.4
168.4 145.1
"'"
, .. W_gCop'("'1)
53iJ
Pfd S10cIl None
21>
1>
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5 Longllnll Debll~
7.5
1.5
1.5
Comman $1ocll 50,508,322slIs.
211.3 240.5 272.2
181.7
152.8
312.9 3511
<30.6 '58.1
'"
'" Sh,.-Eq""llm.'
".
InlXdes 16.4n,H4 Class B shs. (10 vales each)
17.4% 16.R 14.6' 1-4.3%
14.61 14.8' 17.0%
16.3% 16.3% 13.5% 13.0% RIbn on lobi Cip"
110%
(98% of Gap'Q
16.6% 16.5% 13.5% 13.0% Return on Shr. Eauitv
13.5%
11.31 11.0'
17.4' 17.6' 16.1% 15.8% 14.8% 15.1'
MARKET CAP: $1.1 bllion (liid tip)
15.n 16.0'It 15.0'
13.9' 12.91 13.1% 15.2% 14.1% 13.9% 13.1" 11.0% 111.5%
to Con Eq
11-",
CURRENT POSR"ION
116
zaoa 1J3OIQ1
10~ 12~
14%
16"
11% 20%
1ft A!\DiY'dllllNIlPraf
1S%
13" 13" 12~
11lllL)
t-:::=:,;:;=-';::;:=C:=;=:':-c--L..-'-c::-;;':-::::=-'-::--,--,L..-=:;!:c-:,,-:-"':::-:::-7""',.-___,~___,-,J-=__j
CaSh Assets
159.5 132.5
1".5
BUSINESS: TlXIIsleRoll Industries, lAC. produces candy. Pmducts Confedi>ns, 1185. Five plants in U.S.; one n Maxim. Inn ops.
Receivables
24 ..7
2-4..8
25.9
ilclud8: Toot.sis RD'. Tool.sie POp, T~siI Bubble Pop, Tootsie
(Mexico and Canada): B'4 or '00 sa".
Has .bout 1.950 employInventory (UFO)
35.1
41.9
67.0
a..R ......,...,
n~.
D_'
"-h'
OIher
5..2
4.0
12.8.--..,..
""" 81D11 Dol&. .--ullld
...... I Confe~:"'---"
l.U>lal
"' .... s
ees. M.J. a "" E.R. GonIon cor*aI 10"" of voting paw&; L R
CurrentAsset5
224.5
2032
217.2 c.nca.1, 5100;Wamer-l... nbert"l bmlif dIomlllBlrMamll brands
WeiIef, 12,. (:W1 Prnxy). ClliInnan & CEO: M.J. Gordon. Pr-. &

,I>

'"Oll

R".

Pllyabkl
Debt Due

Ar;tB

12.8

10.3

_
43.3
56.1

-41.2
57.5

112

(Junior MiTts, Sip'" Daddy. Sugar Babils. ChtJtI&sIon ChMr. 8nd

- - Pam PDmsJ, 1(W3; Chmns Co. (Chcrru, B/afff PofuJ, 9r'B8; CQI."s
Olher
59.0 'IIootsle.
R 0 II' s financ iaJ results
CurrentUab.
---:;o.z
JDay
ANNUAL
RATES Pat
Pal Est'd'll-'OO fall in Zool. The company posted. lowerafdwlgelP-'"
tlYra.
5T""
1zI'14-'"
than-expected
earnlngs
in the
third
Sales
9..5% 7.5% 8.5"
quarter. The slowing economy and compe''CashFlow" 13.5% 12.0% 8.~
tltlve pressures
were mostly to blame.
In
Eamngs
14.0" 14.5% 8.0%
Dividends
18.5% 21.0% e.5"
addJtlon. product mix changes,
lower profit
BookV...
15.0"
13.0% 12.~
margins on sales
of recently
acquired
CaIQ\IARIElll.YSALESlhlllA
Full brands.
along with higher
energy
plices,
.neW Mu.P'r Jun.Per $ep.Pw DeeP.
Y.... elevated
transportation
costs.
and
In-

1.

1199

2010
2001
2102

I.

69.7

86.0 144.2

14.2 88.3
78.0 90.4
82.6 86.9
SIO.lJ 10C1

88.8

152.7 81.6
165.9 92.8
158.8 101.7
t155
105

EARlMGSPfRSHAIlE.A11

Cat-

.ndl:r r.P" Jun.PtrSep.Ptr DeePer


1l1li
22
26
11:"
.29

2100

..oK.

.24

.28

.25

.31

Sf

.62

.29

.31

2101

negative trends affecting business will


1.49 lU\o.eIy continue throu gh 2002 . H owever. we

1.38

1.

.05

.06

.06

_
20It

.06
.fIT

.116
.07

.07

.m

UL

still

expect

an

earnings

of

5%

economic
downtuDl
some
buying
opportunities for Tootsie.
The company
has roughly
$2.20 a share in cash, a minlmal
f d b
A
.06.23
amount 0 e t, and maintains an +
.07
.26 Financial
Strength.
our
second-highest
.01
rating.
TIle strong balance sheet enables

AI F....
~
ends llec. 31. Fnt tine
qullb!n end 011 S8l. do!eld to end of month
(81 Based on 2Velage lihins ttrough 1996,
dillEd 1BufV. N8:d unllngs reportdue late

present

~oolSle
II

Roll

to proceed

II

I'be .....
_
sh:Iy'" tIliPJ;criB-'s

r:c ~..,,n.d

fR'I'idtlll wIItoIJ.
_.1lUI
m
III iIIaDnil:

&

and

for the right strategic


acquisition.
Despite the company's low frequency of
purchases
('footsie
aaJulred
Andes
CandJes and OTec last vp;:t,r" Its previous
J -,
foray on the acquisition
front
oa::urred
more than
five year.; earller).
prices
may
have fallen
enough
for It to strike
again.
In the absence of an acquisition, Tootsie

~d I:

ma~ o~t :
~e~ef~
a
a
way
g
e
The candy maker currently
has operations in Mexico and Canada. but any
expansion
oveneas
will likely take some
time, as the company evaluates
haw to leverage its ex:istlnR product line.
These
untimely shares
offer
below0
share.

average
tiat over

capital.appreciation
potenthe p ull to 2004-2 006 AI so,

the stock trades


at an uncharacteristically
high prtce-to-earnIngs
ratio. However,
'IR
shares
offer a 3% annual stock dividend.
and the company has consistently
bought
back more shares
than it has Issued, com
bating
the resulting
dllutlon and effectivelyincreasing
the percentage
ownership
for
current
shareholder.;.
Jeffrey B. Levit
November 9, 2001

istDdt

&

with caution.

Chi:aQa.

walt

.hIn
dN'd pai:leadl,- _bout ArK 21, SIIC8
(CI Next dividend mealing about Dee. 20th. 1966. CD) Indudes nngibllll.
In '00' $121.2
Next -..: datB aboul Jan. 2nd DNidendS tlaid milion, S2.~.
(E) In tnIliDn1, Bd,..sted
about the 9th of Jan., Ap" , July, and Oct. 3% fm 5bdr: splils.nd sUti dlViQends.

o 2lXll. VItIe I..ile f'IdlI5i*II.lrLAi


rig!ul"I5lIftIl r~~
.. " lib..
fIOIII5IUteS ~
PUBUSl-R IS NOT RESi>oNsIIu.lOR
"'" EllRDRS OR OMISS1011S H[RUiI 1bif, ~
ill_1J
lie npadIad. mIld. ....
hII5I*d r111lJ' piatd. ~
Ill .......
III __ III ~
T"H[

Increase

year over year.


The
current
could

COO: E.R. Gordon. Inc..: VA. Adm.: 7401 S. CiaIIO Ave.,


Il6062S. Tel.: 713-8J8.3.otOO. IIt&net www.faCItsiB..am.

~~r;~
:a~

388.7 C;;:Spoedo;:~n~ndJ~~~~
396.8

427.1 set the effidendes


gained
from past 104JD vestments
in ERP software.
Whlle we now
440
expect sales for 200)
to be on par with last
Full year. we have reduced
the earnings
target
Y.... by $0.08 a share. making 2(0) the first
1.29 down year in quite some time. The current

.25
.28
.54
.35
1.42
.25
.32
.51
.J5
1.50
GROSSQUARTERU'lWDSPM1C
Fun
11. 31 Jun.30 Se~DlcJ1 Y.. r
1917
035
04
04
04
.16
.
.
..
1l1li
.04
.05
.05
.05
.19

ZDQ2
CaIend.r

44.2
27.7

2-1or-'

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
3.89
5.86
6.39
~OO ~OB ~15
~"
3.30
3.64
'.60
'.86 5.56
.1l6
.59
.11
.83
~ ~ ~ ~ m
~
.96
1.11
.71
~
~
n
~
~
~
.50
.60
.66
.16
.88
.08
.03
.03
.04
.04
.04
.04
.05
.06
.07
.10
.12
j3
m ~ ~ ~ jO .01 23 .52 .15 .09 .1B
4.51 5.10 5.Bl
1.00
121
1.44
1.11
2.05
2.43
3.4ll 3...
~B6
.3
53""
".48
"."
OJ."
".OJ
.41
18.4
11..
1.,
17.1
,0.0
14.' 16.3 19.9 Zl'
19.1 17.1
".1
121
1.43
IE
1.31 '21
.93
.98
1.18
1.38
1.09
12B
1.11
.6~
~
.5'
.71\
n
1.1~
"
n .1~
.71\
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as of II3DIDl
245.4 159.6 296'
207.9
312.7 340.9
Total Debt $1.5 ml.
Du.1n 5 V,. Nil
22.3~ 22.3~ 24.0% 24.6' 24.0~ 15.3'
LTDll:bt$7.5ml.
LT InteflSl S.45mill.
132
8.B
6.1
10.8
12.1
52
C8p1alizBd leases 57.5 mill.
32.0
26.5
35.' 31.9 40.4 41.2
39.9' 38.3~ 38.5' 38.~ 31.0% 31.n.
Leases, Uncaplbilizld None
PensIOnliability Non.
12.8% 13.1% 13.7% 12.8% 12.9' 13.81
60' 1012 61.0 92.6 109.1 153.3

~n~~1.51 ~

s.~g11

DJf.".JJA

Sill

15.2
11.0

r __ p sh

!"

a.--

16.5
12.7

2~1 ~7.-J'

2004-06 PROJECTK)NS

..,.

16.2
l1A

-..s III""
iIIIemcI

A+
95
60

95

UNL _

u.. NIl pelt

SInD

Company'_ Fn.ndlll Streftglh


Stack's Prica Stl.b11ly
Pr1elt Growth P.nnltC8
Earnings Predlctl.b11ltJ

II prllllw::l

"

: I I:

I I

WEIS MARKETS NYSEWMK r


4

TWIEUIlESS

Rliloed 1lJZ21JJ

1"",.,'"

SAFElY
Jill

..s..,

-. .... ..
"

."

fl'C!'--

-"

,"

. ..'

"

..- -.
.

34.'

27.8

.. "

'

.......

............

.... ....

45.3
32 .

44.3
3Z.'

'.,

..

,.,'

I.SoI

1.30
:l2

7!l3
4&13
15.1
123
1.6%

n.36
11.3
1.11
1."

Percent
1I.rIIli

'

.'

4826

27.35
239
1.91

26.1'
2.25
1.82
.SO
1123
45.'2
16.5
137
1.1'4

.56
12.52
.. 3
16.5
125
1.8%

2927
239
1.81

1.11

1.05
21%

21%

8.7%

UnCllphD.r.ed Annuall1lnlills

$29.6 mil

NOI'Ill

Common Stock 27,211,915 5hs.

(100V.afC8pl)

MARKET CAP: 5715 million (Slnll Cap)

'9O'

CURRENT POSrnON

Ca,\\"~
~""Y

2111111 "".."

3892
34.7

Recaivables

167.1
11.6

(UFO)

6Tf.2

Other

602'
!l2.7
38.1

CUlT'ent uab.

120.8

120.3

=~

.....
c

1.
1999
7001
7101

28.3
146.8
10.4
218.9
74.1
48.0
120.1

78.2

42.1

.......

Past Est'd'll-'OI

Put

nn.

Ill...
5.5"

Book Value

35.'

413.6
25.1
168.5
10.0

Currvnl: AS!8I5
Iv:cU Payable

ANNUAL RATES
d .........
)
S.1es
"CastrAow"

6.0"

2.5K

..~

10.5"

3.5"

.5"

8.5"
7.~

1.0%
6.5%
4.5%

6.5%
6.0%

IlIIARTERLYSAl!S l"'IA

IIIr.pft Jun.Per Sep.


454.7 457.6 463.3
'96.3 '90.0
.923
519.7 509.0 485.9
489.1 .924
498.8
S05
520
510

1.'"

Full
Dec.PYou
491.9 1967.5
526.3 2001.9
546.' 2081.0
5117
2075
IW4

Co.
EARllNGSPERSHARE"
.... r Mu.Per Jun.Per S~'";;:Per Del:.P.4-1
.40
.4-1
.52
"!I
1999
.51
.46
.46
7001
.43
.48
.46
7101
,4-1
.41
.37
.43
.4-1
,43
.47
.51

....

.. d"

1997
199.
1999
7000
7101

."."

QUARYERlYDNOOiOS PAIl"
lII.r.31 Jun.30 S;~~1O Dec.3t
.23
.23
.24
.2'
.2'
.25
.25
.2'
.25
.25
.26
.26
.26
.26
.27
.27
.27
.27
.27

118
80.'
35.1%
'2%

"'....

hnslon Lllbitily rbIe

PfdStocll

"22
16.4
1294.3
25."

TertIIl Debt None

Laues,

.SoI

1.4.64

Full
Y.. r

1.80
1.87
1.81
1.55
US
Full
Y.. r

.94
.98
1.02
1.06

11

r:.....""..........
,"

64H
12.4%
12.4%

....

....

"

'. ".

."

0'

..

..

..

..

..

..

680.3
10.5%

738.1
'J%
9n
5.71
'2%

762.4
10.0%
10.0%

791.6
10.0%
10.01
5.'"

818.5
9.B\
9."
5.11
'/%

841.3
9.4'1.
9.4%
4.891

890.6

'9%

54%

55%

10.5%
6.19.

35%

'2'

5.871

'2%

."

CI 21111. \'HIe lile PubtIhiI~~


THPlllUShRlSfiOTR
lie
~
IIIIItIII

..,

II

,,,.
'".

..

..

B."

918.5
B.5%
8.5%

3.91

3.8S

941.9
7.9%
7.9'4
3"
59%

8.5%

!
lUG
110
1.15
1."
11.55
Z7.25

2002

-10.e

28.3

1lf5 W.lpII'M It
110 elM FIow"per III
US Eanilgs pII' It! II
UG Div'dl Dld'd pII' III c..
20.30 Book VIIlIt per III D
7U5 CantmllII Shs Dubl'g I!
AYR Ann' PIE Rdo

-- ..'"
.'"

....,.:: ::
7DOO
7I.5lI

VB

-fU
-5.8

".1
.".
cVALUELDEPUB~"C.

R_PIERdo
A'I'II Ann' IlIY'd YiIId

7075 ..... ($totI! A

GrouMargln
UK llpomot Marpn
117
113 Hin" of S1arn F
50.0 HdPloI1(WI)
50.0
31.5lI ".0% IncorM Tu RIll
7511
UK Mill.Prall"'"
,/10 W_O Cop" (lnml
1/10
NB
H.
1lobI.. ~
. (lnIII
530
555 Shr.

U"

'.5lI
'.5lI

""

t.t;.R~:

'.0% R.wn CIIlTCIbICIp'I


'.0% Rnsm III !hr. Ea~
15lI RmMMIfDCOlIIEq
59lI All Dlv'dslo NIt: Prof

04-41
.7.15
t75
115
1.15

1175
:z7.5/)

,to
.15
11K
74M
715ll
15ll

'10

IdO
37.0%
UK
175
NB
150
11.0%
11.0%
10%

""

BUSINESS: Weill Markets, Inc. opemtes 163 I'lIIBYfood mart.ets (ilt


year end '00), inclucllng boItI superstcns and tonverTl.ional sltn!s,
kx:aI:Bd in PA. (133 ltores1 NO (22), flU (3). NY (3), VA (1), and WV
(1). Owns about 50% or sills.. Sels nafl brand n-dJandise pm
2,000 iten. undef its own tnIckmIrks. Owns SlIf*Petz, 33-5D&
(III: ye;nnd) pel supply chain witII ......
in OH (8), PA (7), SC (6),

TN (4), AI.. (2), MI (2), , ea. i'1 GA, IN, KY, & MO. Sold Weis Food
5EI'vice. 4.00. '00 deprec. fills: 5."1.. Has about 6,000 shrhldni.,
20,700 emps. RF. Weis owns 4&.9% rlmck; Elan WI$SIIlIIl'IIIIl,
12.1" (5101 prnxy). Chai'man: Robllrt F. Weis. Pnls.: N~n
S.
Ridl. Inc.: PA. Addntss: 1000 Souli Second S ....
Sunbwy, PA
17801. TeIraphone: 570-28&-4571.lntIlmlIt
WWW.W8is.CIIITI.

Earnings at Weis Markets continue to


slide_ Thlrd-quarter share net fell 7% and
came In well below our estimate of SO.53.
The weak operating performance has
caused us
slash $0.15 and $0.20 from
our fourth-quarter and 2002 estimates .
Sales gains have been unable to keep pace
with Increases In operating e><penses. particularly labor-related costs. During the
quarter, the company also intnxiuced a
more aggressive promotional strategy.
These tactics, along with temporary closlngs of some rtval stores, did help to revive
slUggish same-store sales trends, but also
W;ueezedoperating margins.
e l(M)kfor a part:l.ail recovery next
year. lbis year's poor performance and an
accounting change that will eliminate
about S2.5 mlllton annually in goodwill
amortIzation creates rather unimposing
year-over-year comparlsons. Moreover, we
also anticipate some improvement at the
store level, thanks in part to the tmpIe
mentation of cost-cuttlng measures in
recent quarters. In addition, Weis should
be able to fine-tune its promotional actlvlUes and achteve a better trade-off between increased sales and reduced profit

The balance sheet has a new look. The


company's sizable investment portfollo has
shnmk COnsiderable
May, much of it
was lJquJdated to
e the repurchase
of about 35% of the share base from relatives of one of the chain's co-found~. This
activity Is having a positive Impact on the
income statement, having added. about a
nickel to September-quarter share net. Investment income has dropped sharply due
to the smaller ~rtfoUo,
but this has been
more than 0 et ~
the reduction in
shares outstanding.
ing forward, Wels
probably won't need to make extensive use
of financlal leverage. With capttal spending sl~
down in recent years, operating cash
ow has been su8ldent to fund
these activities .
These shares are ranked to underperfonn the market over the next six to
lZ months. In addition to the weak operating trends at the store level, the stock's
appeal as a takeover play has dimlnished,
as the most vocal proponents of selling the
company sold their stakes in last May's
share repurchase.
Robert M. Greene. CFA
November 9,2001

'0

Ul~"j)
CA' F~I
.... ""...... d",,"'"
CI!!tID!r. is Ba!ed on~. slLns outttandng Ie)
I1W11 meetilg aboul Jan. 21JtII.
~gh
W, diuB:l thlnaf'B". ExdudllS nIr 8IlIbout Feb. 61h. DiY'd pqnenl dales:
_(
.... )'~22;;"97,
C3/);"98, 2Oj; ".3/;
lho 251, d F.b .
Aug . , .. _.'

dl

..

.... "...
.... -
.....

~ TOt RETURN Mil

29.41 mo 35.80 38.11 41.10


43.54 ".n ~.09 49.44
246
2.78
2.91
3.03
U4
2.33
285
295
2Jl1
1.83
1.86
1.75
1.80
1.81
1.87
1.90
U7
I.'"
.7
.M
.70
.so .88
JlI
1.02
1.08
17.53
15.12 16.85
18.61
19.41
20.26 21.33
22.03 22.74
4183 .180
41~
.204
.2.53
n77 41.16 -41.69 41.69
14.5
15B
18.
14.6
18.8
16.7
19J
19.8
20.1
.95
.is
.95
JlI
1.04
.96
1.03
1.13
1.31
2.9%
2.8%
2B%
3.0%
28%
2.9%
2'%
3.0"
2"
1289.2 1441.1 1556.7 1646.4 17531 1818.8 1861.5 2004J 2061.0
25.4\ 25.5" 27."
21.7'4 28.0% 21.8%
27.7% 27.7'4 28.8%
7>%
1.3'4
7.3%
7>%
6.6'4
6.9%
6.7%
7.9'
7.''4
126
141
149
155
158
183
151
154
183
11.1
13.0
79.4
IU
79.6
75.4
7S2
n.B
1'2
35.0' 35J% 34.9% 34.8% 34.71 34.''4 3lA'
35.5" 36.8%
04.8, 4.5'4 4.4% 4.0' 3.9' 3.6"
5.61 5."
5131 505.5 4911
496.9
4632
471.5
~1.B
483.'
489.'

8.0%

"
,
20

t.5

2B.43
246
1.93
.80
13.64
".73
15.0

40
32

12

I~'"

u of I13M1

CAPrrAlSTRUCTURE

....

- -- - --

'"

2'

24.n
204
1.86
.43
9.97
45.58
192
1.28
1.4%

132'
1.73
1.42
.36
8.80

2000 200. 2'"

,II

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
22.05

Target Pric. Range

38.3
25.8

I,"

"

",2' 1Q'"27
28
4781

24.0

38.9
33.3

100

"""",.

'.

DJFM"'."JA
000000000
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
o 0 0 0 000 0 0
Institutional DlICisiDns

21
17465

23.'

36.3
26.9

Be

.,101
~PrW:tShlgttl
. ':u~

"'" I:....~R_
ltf"
8"

.,

>9 .

121l1l

PROJEefiOiis
Ann'I TctII

I ::.::u..,

28 .

8.5 I "t15h F\cIII- P 5tJ IIlJln

40
+40%
35 +20%
Instder Decl_kln.

K9I
Lciir

"edi.,:

29.9
24.0

1'..0 I-elm nlW"psh unll

om- MaltS)

-...

27.9
23.1

34.3
24.8

LEGENDS

3 RIRlIl11!W1

TECHNiCAl
IETA

HighT 34.~
Low:
24.3

.
f
1 00 DIV'D
28 80TrRAOO
171(''';1''
115) REL\TI\t

16.t
PRAm
YlD
3.8%

lECENT
PRICE

M.,.

margins.

.w.,:.""-'"

A
100

Fol>.
.,"" ... ,,,",, pia ....
""
Comp .".. F ... ~"'........
Gees tlllfj'ibm. III 'DO: $26.9mil,
18.
SIlJct". Pm:.SbIblify
aboul: (E) In ~iDns. (F) Gmc8ry IIttns only.
PrD GRIWlh ,.rsiItMIcI
Oo'd
~
beiIMIII to be I1IIiItR end i5 pMled ......... .......-n ~ ~ ki'ld.

(158'l1lI. FI~
.....
is alUinellfI1lIII
_
ORNl"I[RRORSOROIIISSIOt'IISH[RUll.This~liiftlyb~so.n.lIOIwi."cilLn.",use.
nm.Mrd .". p!iIId. i!Btrri: II .,
...
II tISlIIlIlI
.
II
.

-pwI.

II ...

senice

II

,',

25

:11:

II'.

WEST PHARM. NYSEWST

3 .....<ill.,
2 ....._
WID
TECHNICAl. 3 ...... 11101

Low:

10101

"I",

Percent
ah.....

t~'"

74.6
42.1
22.7
184.1
25.'
29.6

'_(UFO)

N;cD

oe ..

Payable
OvO

0th00"
ClJrntnt Uab.

6O.S

41.0
28.5
113.1
27.6
3.6

48 .

104.0

ANNUALRATES Put
tnn.
SBlss
5.0%
"CashRow"
7.5%

"-(PO"")
E.m~QI
DiYi:lends
Book Value

,.-

42.1

45.3

ClJrntnt A.ss8ts

8.0,,"

7.""
3.0%

79.3

2GOI

2OD2

.....
,.

Past

..

n...

..""
8.5"

EARNlMGS PER SHARE A.

I.

......
tal-

1111
I.

1119

z001

.17

.(2
.38
.38
.a
.flI
.'2
OlIAR_T D1VIlENDS
PAIl0
lIar.31 Jun.30 Sep..30 Dee.31
.1(
.14 .16
.14
.15
.15
.16
.15
.18
.18
.17
.16
.17
.18
.18
.17
.18
.18
.19
.18

.'2

8.5"

7.5%
'.5%

IIlr.Per Jun.Per SID,Per Dtc:.31


.51
.65
.58
.53
.63
.52
.68
.89

100.7

......

tal-

2GOI
21102

41.6
15.0
42.-4
24.2
1832
24.0
24.5

7>%
2.0%

.32
.29

..

25.

40A
3O.S

31.9
19.6

.." ..

,.1. ..'"

22..

- -- - -
- -- - -

,I' .....

"1/'

fIr- .

32

",;-

24

"

20

"
12

'"

10
'.'

Full

y449.7
469.1
430.1
f70

51.

Fa'
y2V
2.42
1.19
1.015

.."

l.lD

Year
S7
.61

.65

....

1994
199~
22.18 24.84
3.06
3.51
1.73
1.70
.49
.'6
U8
1.85
13.81 16.29
16.46 16.1
15.6
14.8
1.04
.96
1.8"
1.8"
365.1 .-12.9
16n
192'
29.6
23.1
28.7
27.3
31n
32.7'
7.11'
7"
86.6
68.'
35< 104.5
221.3 254.1
10.8'
8.9'
11.3%
12.0'
8.1'
8.8"
28'4
26%

..""
142

~.6

-10.8

'42
64.'

2.5

,....

,.~

...

- .,.

-,.:

....,

'"

41.

""'"
'"

..

""'"

"'lI 1~'"

..'"
..'"

26'

West Pharmaceuticals is exiting the


contract-packaging business. It cecenta~ed to sell the unit to DPT Lakewood
or 26 mJl1lonin cash and notes, plus the
assumption of liabilities. Contract Packag~
lng, by virtue oC a flexible manufaetwin#
enviromnent and workforce, makes an
~ckages
a variety of conswner
prodUC1S
i.e., toothpaste and deodorant) acrording
to brandowners" spedflcadons. It is the
largest part of West's Contract Services
segment, which. after having lost S 12 million in 2000, has eked out a profit so far
this year_ Nevertheless, the move is consistent with West's recently increased
focus on developing products and ~tems
that enhance the administration 0 pharmaceuticals. "Veexpect West to pay down
debt with the sale proceeds. (As is our
pollcy. we won't adjust our earnings presentation until the close of the deal, which
is slated Cor the end DC the year.)
Third-period
results
were
decent.
given the general econoJDic Jna1aise.
Excluding an ll-eent-per-share tax benefit
from last year. proflts Increased
38% in
the latest quarter, albeit from depressed
levels. And, while Contract Services and

tr'' ,
.70

........
...

'" TOT. RETURN 1am

' Y'.
Y'.

1993

(Ajthe
,- qun.'s...-.""last day. on
"".,- Dee. 31. "96, {BOj\'6;):
(11.~: ,1.05.
..,. OJ;
to
4118M
qIr....ends
; '97, .1
47; ..'98,1:~1,
($1.8n;'
CB)DiUB:I
Based on BYg.Ihs. outst'g
N:ext eanngs rep:ri due..., Feb. (C) Ned
tm:Iugll'96.
IQ1f1E, gainsl(los:ses~ '86,
dl'l. meetllg aboul. M. 12. Goes ex-dividend

Drug Dellvery Research. posted much improved operating performances, flat resuIts at Device Pnxiuct Development were
largely expected. Manufacturing
expansion
and process~improvement programs in
Europe have negatively impacted operat
ing effidendes at DPD. But we expect the
negatlve-rruu:gtn impact to be ellm1nated
by the end of March of 2002.
.
We expect solid overall gains next
year.
but
a real acc:eleradon
in
bottom-line
growth is IDOI"e likely
beyond 2003. That's when 8 number of
products based on West's drug-dellvery
technologies are expected to be launched.
commercially. In the interim, West will receive milestone payments from development partners, such as Belgtwn's Solvay.
which
is
developIng a nasally
admJnlstered version of Us flu vaccine based
on West's ChiSys technology.
West shares remain a below-average
selection for perfonnance out to ZOO4ZOO6.but the company's likely transition
toward
higher-growth
pharmaceutical
areas may well prove our earnings esUmates and price targets conservative.
Nils WIn Liew
December 7. ZOO 1

po""'" l~

....
"',"""
22. ..........
<ll!tes:
Feb. 5, May
5, Aug. 5, Nov.
5. (D) Ind.
mang.ln "00: $52.4 mil, $3.66Ishare.(EJ In
maJns.
CI 2001, va. 1M ~
AI ~
re5I!fftG. F.m-I .-rilII1s atuinelIlnnlstUUS ~
10 ~ r-.tIIe .,.. h pvri:IelI .....
......."
d ~ ki1d.
THfP\J8USlt:RISNOTRf
SIlU ORN('f[RRO.RSOROMISSKlI6HEREIH.Th&pllbIir:JIionif,*id.fIar~~_.hOI~IEI.iIIl5nlil1lSe.
PM'
1II1-,1Ie ..........
1nUld.5IInll CI~Il'"
1Ift1tId. ...
1I .......
1I11Sedb' ......
II~.,....Clf!leclari: ........
5eI1i:e II ~

"Cd.

Target Price Rangl


2004 200.
2006

, .3

1998
1999_
2001
eYALUEUllEPUIl
lie.
2002
21.31
29.93 31.99 30.06 32.15
35~ Wet pi!' iliA
U.45
25.1111
'1.91
~55 "Cuh_p.-s11
2.60
3.79
3.78
1511
'.64
'.13
'.91
~f'
1.42
1.91
2.27
1.19
1.45
1.70 Ean*Jg1 pIr Ih~
2.21
2.42
11111
.61
.41
.53
.73
.71 Div'd.Dlcl'd,.1h C
.R
.'iI
.85
.70
,.94
2.11
2.08
2.78
3.15
3.10
115 Cop'I_O..-'"
3.10
'.110
17.30 Book YaIuI ~ III D
15.38 16.76 15.31 15.n
14.31 1...
llJ5
11.6'
DmllCI'I Shs OJ151 g ~
16.92
15.03 14.68 '01
'6.67
''''6
16.5
132
20.3
110
132
13.5
1U
1-- "'1'9 Ann" PlE RHO
.07
.83
.69
.113
1.35
R.-uvt PIERdo
.11
.78
I1."';
1.710
Avg Ann' Div'd Y"1IkI
2.0"
1.8"
1.9"
2.9'
2."
348.7
452.5 449.1 469.1 430.1
uti
"'llnW)'
0 ........
_
fUll fUll
20.7'11 21."
21.8% 16n
18.1'
18.3'
20.'"
31.8
41.0 Dopnci_llnl)
22.0
30.7
319
32.3
35.7
37.0
31.C
22.5
31.4
30.5
30.3
17.1
11.8
410
14.' Not_WI
31.0% InClnl Ta RIll
36.6' 30.9'10 31.8'
38.3'
38.1'
29.7'
8.3'1.
<Ill Nil Prolt II.
8n
7.7%
4.0%
8.1'
7.'"
8"
91.1 112.1
60.7
93.8
15.0
I...Worli60 Cop'II1mI)
115.0
55'
105.0
Lang.T...
00bI
($n;l1)
2'-.6
96.6
8H
141.5 195.8
ZOO
21111
ZOO
188.1
252.0 W.7 230.1 2312
204.8
US
2511 Sln.-_llnllll
320
11.1%
5.9%
10.0'
10.8" lU'
11.1'
7.'" RIIIIm on TolII Cap'
12.0%
12.5,. 13.1'
RIIwn on StIr.EII~itv
16.3'
15.7%
8.3%
S.'"
f1'"
9.0%
9.8% ,m . 11.2%
... %
.2'
3.6'
1'" RI1ained tD COllI Eq
all All DiY'. to Nil PrvI'
JIll
57' 51%
3"
28'
25'
28'
BUStlESS: West Pllarmat8Utical 5erYiCB!l, Inc. manufBdww.
ees; 1,900 stCkh1drs. Ofts. & do. own 15.7'4 d cornnon, Includl'ig
products (lJcIlJding stoppll'S, metal .. 18, dropper bulls, . ) tor
10.9% held by J.R Wille, 11; Private Capial Managlilmltlll 11.0'1.;
the phimlaeeutiatl industry. ABD suppiBs laPS and conIBlNn lor Fnt Union Corp. 9.1"; Franldll Re!IotG8s, 8.9%; Am Funds
l,lanag&mBnl 5. 7'4 rMI1 Pruwy). Ctmln. .Bnd CEO: W~
G.
the CMSII!8" PDd&Jds ~,
and /Yt'IIiSes CDfJlrad pacbging
and manufacturftg servi:es. A.cqd Paco Pt.m. Svcs., 4195. For- l..IIe. Inc..: PA Addr.: 101 Gon:ion Orin, P.O. BIJIt645, lilnville,
eign _lis: 38" of '00 kJtI.t RID: 4.5%. Has aboul. 4,100 lIIIhPIoY- . PA 19341. TeL: 1110-594-2900. II1tierTMIt
www.westp!IIInna.cam.
1992
21.48
2.75
119
.40
1.42
10.71
15.7.16.6
1.01
'.9'
3382
18.7"
23.6
19.7
41."
5n
31.8
31>
168.6
10.7'
11.1'l
8.0%

......, ....
'"

4.0%

6.0%
7.5l1

,,.

.38

35.7

I Y'.

SA'

Esfd'l8-'IO

QIIARTERLTSALfS 11011)'
J .. .Pt, S.~
Dtc.JI
105.2 "'.8
113.9 "'.8
114.2 124.4 115.1 115.(
108.7 113.6 105.3 102.5
118.2 117.2 112.9 1217
122
132
1311

.38

27.0

'.f
,

...2U

"'or
,. 1btP"
tal-

35.'

30.0
22.'

.5

....

......

22 .

....,

,u.. "..

Co

,0.0

21.3

.....

,....

.. .
.'

26
27

"

6960
6950
1990
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
11.99
".60 ".62 1753 19.15 20.86 21.18
2.55
1.7.
2.29
2.39
1.70
1.93
W
1.28
1.13
II
.95
1.02
1.01
.8'
~1
.40
.23
.25
.29
.40
II
2.13
2.14
1.64
1.25
1.82
1."
7.54
8.60
10.53 11.15 11.31
9.81
15.56
5.
m '6."
60.0
18.8
'2.,
14.'
~
1.116 1.10
1.20
.98
1.22
1~
1.7'11 1.6'
2.11l\ 1.7'11 2."
2."
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE u of 1I3OR1
329.8
16.0"
TotIl Debt $219.9 mil. Due bl5 Yrs $92.7 mil.
24'
LT !nteflSt S13.5mil.
LTDlbI$195.'-ml.
12.8
(LT ItbRst e.ned: 2.ax; kltal intBIesI
25n
coverage: 2.8x)
('-7" of CaP')
3....
Lusft, UnCllpital!ud Annual ... tals Sl.6l1il
26.5
Pension Uabllity None
49.1
152.1
PIlI Stoe;t None
1.2"
Common 8tocIl1'-,345,'-05 shares (53% of Cap'!)
IIARKET CAP: $375 miIDon (Small Cap)
4.3'
CURRENT POSrrlON
'III

:'Ul
ReceiYabl81
"""',

29.1

50

..

..... r:--,..;o(

IQJ.'

I.

:::.~66'."

25.3
19.9

li75~1

22

16.8

~~ixfufrs'~

MII1Total
Price
GMl
Return
Hl;h
4S
17%
lw
:IS
+35%
1D"
l!Wider Decisions
JFMA.JJAI
000 000 000
000220000
o 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Institutional Decisions

24.1

LEGENDS
1.51"'C15IIra."p511
ReiIIiIe PIke Slnrigfl

PROJEC11ONS

.,...., ...
...,

18.8
11.1

.60 0.00 MaAa)

BElA

20.0
10.5

High:

TlllEUNBS

2.9%

I~CEKl
PlUCE
26.011~oo17.7(=::~l)~~O.961~

SDck's Price StablllJ

100
20
60

Prtce GnNth PlIrslllance


Earnings PrMk:tUIlty
I

",

:11:

11-.

ALBERTSON'
S
3 ....._

"TWEUIIISS

WID

, ......

Gain

CCc;_

Ann'I fatal
RItum

45
+40%
Insider Decisiona

....

....

""

. . ....

,.1","

DJf.A.JJA

..

.. ,......

"' '''''' ,

27~

26.7
18.4

29.6

30 .
25.'

23.'

.113.8

"".6

48.6

31.~ 30.5

27.3

67.1

66.6

".0

29.0

Target Price Range

37.0
24.0

39.3

20.'

243ri~

1".11,1" "uh.

, ,

..

II"

"

,lIlltl""

hll,

IIl

-.

1',1

~II'III

- -- - --

32
2
20

"

..

...

....

..
..

12

.. == -

'.0

3.'

38.44 44.53
216
1.69
1.05
.32
.36
515
5.48
164.66 253.4'
19.0
21.1
128
1.11
~
1.4'10174 11184
25.6~ 24.7%
6.41
73~

'"

..

.,~

Reeewables
~erDy(UFO)

348'

Aa:ts Payable
Debt Due
O!he'
Current Uab.

642

128'

<055

ANNUAl RATES Post


llYn.
" ....
(po- .. ,
Sales
11.5%
"Cash FloW"
14.5'"
Earni'1gl5
11.5%
Divid.nds
14.0%
Book V8lue
14.0%

..
-~,..
.....
,..

.Ii
,
1991

2001
2002

.,;;.

'2000
999

2001
2002

tal-

1999

2001

r.'151F"""

332

3236
671

<300

"93

2163

2132

82
1160

1282

3395

3653

Past

'"

.......

Est'd"'00

Un.
11.5'"

11.5'"
6.5"
10.5"
1".5%

lIUARIERLTSAW~"'I'

ADr.Plitr JuIJl.

Oct.P8r J8n.Per

3843

3995

39!KI

4172

9216
9014
9331
.500

9381
9213

8983
8991

9898
9544

6.5"
7.0"

a,,,
<.""
a""
~

y161115
3T478
36752
3nSll

9577 9100 0142


9700 9500 10500 3'1261
EARHIIGS PER SHARE A II
Apr,r.r Jw.Per OclP.r m.Per
.51
.52
.66
.77
236
.53
.66
.44
.73
226
.53
.46
.60
.60
206
.46
.44
.1/1
.46
U3
.31
.52
.02
.70 t23
lIUARTERLTDNIlEJIIS P_
Full

, IIIlr.31

1M

'40

547
3364

283
.582
2132

Cumln1 Assets

...

57

23'
587

.15
.16
.IT
.18
.19

1;.

JUrl.30 SeD.30

.16
.IT
.IB
.19
.19

.16
.17
.18
.19

Dec.31
.16
.17
.18
.19

.19

1>..-...........

y.63
.fi1
.71
.76

.I.r

656

216.1
37.8\
2,.
197.7
5061
1388.4
15.6'
19'"
13.8'1.
3"

676

3521
39.5'10
3.1\
132.1
660.9
1389.4
18.3\
253'
18.9%

'"

~.83 49.96
254
2.84
1.65
'.64
.42
.52
6.65
1.15
253.98 261.92
111
11.1
1.13
1.14
1.5\
1.1111895 1258S
27.2l1 27.6~
8.1%
8.41
TI!J
164
411.4 464.9
38.5% 38.113.5\
3.7lI
94.2
194.5
512.4 7321
1687~ 1952.5
2O.2lI 18.0%
24." 23.8'
18.4'1. 11.3'
26~

54.96
3.14

1.!16
.60
B.96
250.69

,9>
'12
1.61-

,".OS
91m
59.78
65.14
4.62
3.44
3.90
4.41
2.09
236
206
U6
.76
.64
.68
.72
9.55
11.44 13.46 '4.06
245.74 245.70 423.70 405.00
13.5
17.9
22.5
20.5
1.03
1.17
.88
1.11
1.3%
1.61- 2"
14690 '6005
37478 36762
18.7~ 29.7%
3O.1~ 3111
6.3~
8.61
7.617."
B18
2512
983
2492
810
516.8 <>62.6 955.0
31.5ft 36.5~ 39.91- 39.8\
24~
3.5~
3.6\
2.51352.4 4S5.t
521.0
80S
5942
1130.6 1684.5 49920
2419.5 2Bl0.5 5702.0
5694
9.1ft
15.6" 14.1% 10.6"
15.311
16-"
21.4'
10.1'
14.9'1. 14.9% 12.1% 9n
36~
30'10 18~
29~

'"

13m

1'-O~
B.3~
818
49]J
31.9ft
3.(i'

42Cl.8
1051.8
2241.0
15.1"
22.0'
155'1,

3O~

~"fg

II ~r.tIl, va-lile
THE PJBUSI.R IS IfJl Rf
all..,
lie nplIiaad.leSOld. ...

III ~

RETURIIWD1
-106

-315
-170

26~
551

'''cYA[IJEUNEP1J8

IIC.

WuperlhA
CuII
Earningl pIf Ih AII

110.00

_p."I,

DiY'dsDtd'd,..

..

lOG
120

c.

Soc*. YIIut JIll' Ih


""-00 40100 Common Shs Qutll'glJ
A.... n'IPJIR ...
R_PIERdo
"Vi
Div'd Y"lIId

-...-: --

.ICI

zo.oo
JIIl.OO
17.0

_ ....... -- '=

moo moo
.lO.51I
7.IlI

Z5IJO

'"

41./Ill

""
lIS

I.lOO

'.511
t1511
'.511
M

.lO.51I
I.IlI
ZS.lO
910
4O./Ill

!.Ill

Soloo (lnoIIj'
Gmsl'brgin
0p0nIn .......

36./Ill
~/Ill

"'00

""'II
""'II.
"" _.Clp1("'1O)
100

1.1,

An.,

Not
11noII)
Inc:cnt Tu Ra1t
Not

1140

4O./Ill

,'''
48
1500

w;o~::~rl

9410

SIIr.

'./Ill
t~1IlI
'.511
UlI

Rn.n

. {1noII

011

Total C.'!

R_ .. Shr. E';'"
RII1aInMl to Can Eq
All DiY'dilD Nit Prof

"/Ill
t1511
1U"

""

BUSINESS: A!ber'5on's, Inc.. oP'OtBS more than 2,500 retail groCti!I'f I1cns and s1and... 1one drulJllIJreS .. 36 ltiltes across .... U.S.
Acqul'ed Am8ri:::an StDn!s (1,580 Uns), 6199; Butny (29 stnsl,
10198; Bolno's (1" s1cns), 8198; Smlly's (10 stIJnm), .w8; SeesII!rs (10 stDnls), 1198. Other bannen incl. 0sa:I Drug, Sav-Dn,
Acme
Uu Focds, .,., 1JJdy Skns. 0pEnJ. 19 dQi..

bll1iJn centers tI1a1 SlM'C8 .bool. 75% 01 TnlII'd12ndise. Has .bt.


235,000 erTllI. (60% uniJnJ. 2000 depr.llIte: 6.6%. Oh. & dlBdon.
hokI aboUt 22'10 01 stDci; Capital R858adJ, 9.5%; MilIbI Stlung.
1.ztII.;lJlgg Mnon, 6.8% ("J01 Proxy). Chai'. and CEO: L.nnnc8
Johnmn. Inc.: Delnft. Al:Idr.: 250 P.m::an1llr Boulevard, Boise,
IdahoBJ726. Tel: 208-395-e200.lnIBmet WlftI.a~can.

A new management team is taking Betion to revive Albertson"s. General Electric alumnus Lany Johnston look the
helm In April following a string of setbacks
in the wake of the June ]999 merger with
American Stores. Over the past six
months, the company has begun to implement a reslructurIn~
program that will
close about 165 un erperforming stores
(3.5% of sales) and reduce corporate managerial and adminlstraUve staff by ] 5% to
~O%. Albertson's is also tak..I~ steps to Improve execution at the store evel, with an
emphasis on strengthening price competiUveness, improving wstomer service, and
expanding its private-label sales.
Earnings have yet to turn the conter.
Along with reducing operating costs, reviving same-store sales. which had s1i~ed
into negaUve territory in the second h
of
ftscal 2000. Is one of the top priorilles.
Some improvement has been made on this
front, as identical-stnre sales rose a respet:table ] .5% in the July quarter. The
more aggressive pricing and. promotional
tacUcs needed to achieve these results
cany a price, however. nus was also evident in the July quarter. when share net

fell 10% below results In the prior.year pertod. The savings from the euJTent restnlCtilling efforts and other cost-cutting inlUa
Uves should ramp up over the next several
quarters and begin to ease the :5itrain on
operating margins. However. we are tak.ing a more cautious stance as to how
qulck1y thls wlll occur. As a result, we
have trimmed OW' share-net estimates for
fiscal 20111 and 20112 by $0.20 and $0.25,
respecllvely.
These share!! are an average selecdon
for the year ahead. Food retailing
stocks, like Albenson's, have fared better
than most in the tumultuous equity mar~
kets of late. Stlll, for now we will defer
taking a more favorable stance toward this
Issue's
year-ahead
prospects.
The
numerous changes being implemented. slmultaneously at Albertson's lend an added
measure of WlCenalnty to our projections.
Thus. Wt= think investors looking for a
defenslve-oriented holding could find more
appealing selectJons elsewhere in the supennarket sector. Loo~
out to mid~
decade, these shares 0 r worthwhile
total-return potential .
Robert M Greene. CPA
November 9. 2001

Mm"

.I~""

,_ .....
_"-"bo<
......-.31; '98, 6; "99,
affolawi1g
calsnd.~.
(8) 8I:1lId m
losses:
'92, 3; '93, 5;~,
piTl.-y sh:ns outsl hough 1996,
$1.31; 'lXI, ~; '01 H1, B2.
1991, 8nc1dilul9d 1heruftBr. Nexlegs. IBpIJI1 (e) NeJ:l divQend meetllg MI1y Dee.. GOBI U

basic..

9UO
~95
U
.71
1....

9110
4.55
U,
.71
1~"

....... ..-.""" -
56.3

'''3,,-

I.'

30.11
32.05
20.13 22.11 25.30 27.71
1.33
.94
1.104
1.48
.62
.15
.61
.97
.38
.41
.73
!II
.12
.14
14
28
.11
.20
4.06
454
299
3.47
222
'61
265]9 26716 265.44 267.n 261.&4 261.64 16416
14.3
13.6
17.0
10~
11.8
13.B
".3
1.13
119
1.>6
1.33
.96
.94
.96
1.4\
2.5%1.B~
1.7~
1.61- 1.5\
2.0~
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of lI3IU1
8660.5
25.5~
Total Debt $5875 mill Dlili In 5 y~ $991 mil
LT Intelat $425 nil
LT Debt S5136 IriD.
062
Ind. $244 mill. capiblliz:ed leases.
257.6
(EsI'd l T inWesl: earned: 4.2x; IDtaIirTBeSt
COerl!Ige:4.111:)
(51% 01 Cap1) 36.6%
3.0~
Leu.., U"capitallDdlAnnua1 rentals $26Z..2 mil
911.0
Pension Li.b111ty NOlIe
151.7
1199.5
PId SiDe .. None
Common Stoc1l406,014.S39 SM. ("9" of Cap'~
19.9"
U' 11f1l'w1
11.:5%
IIARKET CAP: $13.0 bllrlOn (Large C.pl
15.3%
CURRENT POSmoN
1899
813.01
2000
29~

40

.. 1m

19.02
.55
.32
.10
1.95

ca~~

....
,.
eo

198. 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

200. 2006

20"

100

l'er:en.Qq

000
000
1 0 0 IIII~
000011000
220
2 1 0 000
InstitutirU\II1 Decisions
lQ2.'
"'rmnl
,eo
'59
.h ..:~~

~s

65 (~05~1 21"

25.7
16.3

2:';"':1~6I9ll~5nfig01
2"'-1~um

PROJE~!I.5_

Price

18.9

'22

!:

9~~~5IIr_p~

.&0 (IDO MIlhQ

iIfD,

niln

LEGENDS

NNJn.l1'1.l

3_"" ...,

TECHNICAL

High:

Low:

0 94 D1Y'D
31 91/:flAOO..16 Oe1Ie~":lU16.]) RELlTM
FfflAOO.
nD
2.4%

I~CEHT
I'1!JCE

NYSE-ABS

"'hMay
.........
d' 10,
... NDv.
,....... 10.-,
Febru.-yJon.10,
10, Aug.
Dividend nti'Nesinellt c:n ..... bIB.
(D) In rnii:Jns, 1Id)ls'lld
Axllapits.
ca ~ rtIIiItR aM is p1I'Ided .....
ntrw*s It ~ lild.
!dnI::rar"s-.-.rc_
......
"nIlne.
~rt

~.-..ecr
-r:r:::."""

te5el"I'IIf. 1....., ~
is CIbI__
L'JwrI
DRM'! ERRORS OR CIIS$iCINSHfRrlll.
....,. ....
.-.-.
a _ .... III

..

III

'.

dldrllllli:

- -"'*.

:r..

F
......
"" .. ~n .. h
ItDck'a
rice ....
StlbllItJ
Prica Gnnrlh Perstst.nc.

I Earnings

A
70
oW

90

' ... cbobil1y


'.

: II:

II'

2.0%

ALCOA3NYSeAA

TWEUNESS

lu.led~jO]

High:
Law:

3 u.s!d Zl2J96
4 lDIBed lMWl

SAfITY
TECHNICAL

~ 'o7i:&!tl

AnnHatlil
Rttum

2-1011 ~

21

t':f ~ (1~~1~~~

'1.3

15.1

16.6

22.4

20.3

lU

le.l14~ 1M

Pm SIr...
ZM
6100

1'111'
1'1,'
I

.....

:~-'l" III
..

r~:~~~~ :;::~~o

II h I

18
12

I I

6.70
.61

11.02
1.35

13.81
2.10

15.36

2.23

15.08
1.77

.17

.18

~2

.15
.83

.15
.W

.15
1.21

1.22
.16

1.33
.34

.82
.38

1z.

,23

120

s.otS
6.47 1.32
7.19
1)~.4U rU'J.1u 1
1110.43
.
".5
".
5.
..3
B.6
~
2.14
1.80
.80
.42
.48
.11
3..4"
3.1"
2.4'
2.6% 40% .4.8%
CAPrrAlS'TRUC'TUREIso'iI3lW1
Total Debt$6132.0mi. Due In 5 VI'S $5850.0 mi.
LTDlbt$6031.0mi. LT,*,rat $365.0 mil.
4.98

5.25

=~

~ ':l";,

13,91
1.37

.1f1
.22.

_..

. '.

120

6.87
110.43
19.9
121
2.1%
9B84.1
16.3"
691.9

13.M
1.28

12.81
1.01

2B

.fa
10

.20
1.15

".

"'TDt.RET1JRtIIID1
11IS VLAIml

-.

""II

"II

UnCllp.. 'tr:1MIAnnualnln1a1s $125.0nil.


2.81. 2.ni
Plnslon L11b11tty None
1546.0 1083.0
PIlI Stock $56.0mil. Pfd DlY'd $2.1ml.
1130.8 855.3
(Iessthiln1".ofCllpQ 4937.4 3600
CornmanSlack 858,000,000shs. (65'" aI Cap')
5.1'" 5,5'
5.1% 5.41.
MARKET
CAP:,noS billionl~tglI C.pl
2.61
1.61
CURRENTPosrrlON 1tH
2000 &r3MI1 55"
11"

=-:::0)
Ca~~

ReOBl'iilbies

AaJs Payablo
Oebt Due

Other

CUmlnt
uilb.

2.13

18.93
1.88

19.79
215

Zl

1.11

.79

1.09

.20
.86

.23
126

.33
1.44

25
1.36

5.S2 6.22
6.39
1.4.85 105.26 690.04
".
NMF 36.3 11.0 11'
1..88
NMF
2.38
.1.4 1.18
2.3'
2.3% 2.1% U'
2.2"
9491.5 ~.9
9904.312500 13061
14.3' 12.5% 13.1" 18.3' 11.0"
682.4 692.6 671.3 112.9 741.2

38'962!

1.Ox)i35% af COP'O 40279


.:

2002 i~~~~M
17.n

13.86
121

1.01

5.17

4.99

2261.B~ 192.9 190.5


"II
29.1% 30.3'
.MIi
1.91
6.31
1609.6 1599.7 2089.5
1432.5 1029.8 1215.5
3583.8 39992 4444.7
2.1%
14.1%
1.9,
.4.8" 11.n
Ht.t= 11" 1.4.31
Nt.F
75111f. 21%

.u"

20.91

2.33
121
.38

554.9 nil
33.7% 31.1"
41"
5.1'1
1901.8 1964.4
1689.8 1451.2
4462.4 4419.4
9.9111f.13.9'4
12..4% 112\
7.31 13.51
.42'4 221.

1218.9 1878.0

1648.0

22%: distributi:Jn,

3146.0

"10.1

101.0

1374.3 2932.0

2984.0

3003.37954.04733.0
Plat

Est'd'l8o'OO

22%: pac:tagIlg, 2O%;ab'nion

buildilg and cmsln.ldDn, 1''';

.Dd chM'ni:*.

FDI-

effects of weak demand From several of Its


1ar~~Sl!~31
FuU major end markets,
inclUding the conOI~
Yeu stnJetion and distribution sectors. Thlrd3445 3587 4108 4199 15339 quarter
revenues from European opera
39B5 4033
16323 tlons were
down ) 5% on B sfl!t'1uential
45Q9
5569 4052
6296 4253
6560 22936
-,
6176 5991 5511 SIZZ UJOa basis, reflecting reduced shJpments to the
5IOCI5700 5150 110C1 23250 transportatlon.
building and construction.
EARNltGS
PER
SHARE
A
and industrial products markets. In addi-

.~
1111:31JUII.3DS.p.30 OK:"
1991
.31 .31 .31 .30
1191
.30
.32
.35
.44
2GOI
.48
.47
.42
.44

::
1.21
1.41
1.81

2001
2002

1.7G
2.30

b~r:~~d

c~odi~~~

b~~~~

endar "".31 Jun.Y....


1997 .057 .063 .063 .063 .25
,.
.094 .094 .094 .094 .38
1.
.101 .101 .101 .101 .40
::

production

.48
.55

.39
.13

.37
...

QUARTERLYDlVIlENDSPAI)Full
_ S'-,-'_ --.31
IIlU.-

Alcoa's
average
realized
price
for
aluminum in the third. quarter was down
8% from last year, to SO.77 per pound. And
With inventories on the rise, prices are not
Uk 1
110
ch 1

the
Y S FWthmu
e a1nIdo
mp\rovement or
rem
er 0
e year, at east.
Market conditions
will likely renmin
challenging
in 2002. The UkeUhood of
rising unemployment rates suggests a reduction in automobile sales. Scheduled

.46
.44

:~~

t.70

.SO
1.30

.10

:~~

:~~

1<89.0
33.5%
6.5"
d316.0
4987.0
11422
10.3"
13.0%
9..4"
28"

.125

shBr8s trwnugh1l6, cIiufBd


rotn!Q.IJIflg Illrns: l'S. 13B); 'BS,

.50

"WQ2,

cutbacks

by several

JUS
l10

4.Z5
M
l.15
.21Da
DUO

110
UO

1.5'''
325l1G
2Z.DI

15110
35/,
3101
11.1"
~
.150

111S
15.0%
11.5%
1lll%
15%

aboUt 32% r:A total 2000 depnK:iJtion mte: 5.4%. Has


aboUl1.42,000ernploye8S,185,000shcnhoIcIln. Welli1gtlnMa"'"

eign sa.

AilIn

PA 15212.

craft.

Beldil. Inc.: PA..Address: 201 !sabala SL, PiItslugh,


412-553-4545. ,.....
www.alc:Da.Qm

r_p/JofJQ:

also

manu.acturers is
a cause lor mnronsidering
the specialized. highmargin alwnlnum content In airplanes.
Cost-cualltti0.l eflith0~ shouJd
help edto
part! Y ouset
e unpact r0 reduc

cern.

major air-

:~f.~~-::o:n~~~~~~=l=
In ZOOI, Alcoa set a target or reducIng
costs by an additional $1 bl1llon by December 2003. At the end of the third quarter,
the rompany had already achieved $348
million in armualized.
cost savings. We
look for share net to edge lower in the
flna1 quarter
of' 2001. We have also
reduced our 2002 eanlings target by $0.60

~~~J~~l~th:d~=~

:~~

$0.20 to share net in 2002.)


'!be shares are ranked. to perform. in.
line with the market
averages
in the
year ahead.
The company's strong balance sheet and attractive cost structw-e
h u1d
bl It
th
th chaII
s 0
ena e
to wea er
e
enging market conditlons that lie ahead. Following the recent drop in price, the stock
offers worthwhile
appredation
potentlal
out to 2004-2006.
Gerard Feenan

l~rnent

~ZlII1~~~~"~R~Rt~R~~-:::"'TMs===-~~
Ie
IISlIld. !IIIIeII
i111lJ priI*d. ---.
ahI ....
-.l
~lllIIad,

.13 DiY'dlDecfdpwlh"
I.BQ CIp'ISf'm'lngp...

14DO 1955'"
PnlIlIInoIII
32.", 32.~ IncanII Tu RIiII
l4'i
14% Net PruflM.
Z250
2325 Working CAp' ($filII
1125
.,25 LongT.-nI Debt ($ndI)
',D
'2OIS Slrr.-&rCIih' (WI
10.0" 11.5" RI\un an T~ CIp'
13.5% 11.0" RIbn an Shr. Eaaitv
1.0% 1101 R.taIMdtoCanl Eq
3",
m AI[)i(dsklNttProl

(13j~ NeJ;legs. I8pOI1 due mi:hlan. QrtIy:


d...
bouIthe 25th of: Feb., MaJ, Aug.,
e:a:t
38jt; eps. R18ynot ~d ID IDIaI du& 10 chaJ9t II Nov . [W'd n!imesl. pJiln.. 1 tCJ IDCl D'87, (48); '90, (8Otf); "91, (54); '92, ($3.91): s'-&s out eBI Next. dw'd meetng about Jan. tangbles.nd dBfwnld dJergBs.II'IOO: $83513.0
'93, (1B); '94, 52j; '96, (12); '97, 13; '01 9th. NeJ:t ex dal:lil lbout "iln. 29111.DW'd pay- mil., $9.6fi/litl. (D) In ITA . adj. for IIDck splits.
{AJPrrr.y

III ~ III)

1.1# Earningspll'slIA

:::

2~~~e;=~m=~~~~

5~ue ii tij: :~:~~=~r


~~

ealo

1.81

.40
125

16%; ceO:

9".

Alcoa"s earnings are being hurt by


slowing economic
conditions in the
United States
and
abroad.
Total
aIumJnum shipments slipped by 6 percentage points from the second to the third

r--,---=====:-::-;--,----i

2001
2002

'-If'

3.20

71.70 SUI.plnh
1.50 CashROll"pI ... h

~:i
;~:g:S:~=~,=.":,th;n:t=~rKI=:::::
;~:'.~n:::'''''::~S;~=~.=n~~

ANNUAL
RATES Put

,.
_1199

Z7.NJ

853.0 1054.0
32.0\ 29.91.
5.6'1;, 6.51Ii
1156..8 1196.1
2811.0 2651.0
60:55.9 6318.0
10.s", 12.8%
14.1% 16.1%
9.8\
12.1"
31"
28%

BUSWESS: AbJa is h wr.n:rs largest aluminum prudUCer.


Shippsd 5,398,000men: tons of .hrnin~ i't 2000..... 2S busi-

~::velP-~) 11~".
5~",
CD:-S:
"CashFJow"
3.0". 13.0% 15.0"

CaI-

26.50
3.13

ft.18

3337.0

r.::="",=-===---=--';-"---::,-"--::-;;==:-I

.ndar

22.19
2.66

l.3IJ
8.51 13.13 12.95 1011 BoakVllutJllFshC
7J5.~ 8&1.52 W.OD NO.OIl l;omman5hsQltsrg U
17.1 ''''
20.~ 17.6 ...... __
.'IIAnn'P"'....
.99
.n 1.16 1.11'"' _" _Lnt
RIilUY.PIERda
1,3"
2.1"
1..4, 1.6'
.
AvgAnn'IiY'dY'lIId
13319 15339 16323 22936 2110C1
23250W"($nIIII)
17.8" 11.3'
17.3'4 18.8!. 17.0% fin 0
753.6 8561
901.0 1219.0 1250
1000 DlPlKldaI(lnill
121

6.48

313.7 371.0
2364.1 3815.0

452.0

8
6

1,.1

19911992199~

1.93
.70

Targllt Price Range


2000t 2005
:ZOOG

1"11 1111'

1111"1,., oll7::;1'j,lI

.'11_

Ul

III

J J A

g ~ ~ ~ i ~g 1 g

;:.

45.7

bW
3".4"
5 7 0 2 0
Institutional D.cIslan.

43.6

::JlJ'lifF :

~-'IIlic*sIBte5Wl

Insider Deci.~ns
D J F A

41.7

..
~=t:=t:=t:=t=~~=a=t-=!:- --~

!nIII 1)1.9

;."b:l ~

9.8
7A

'00
eo

Fbll" P ri:
p!tl

9,0 ~ ",(;~sh far

2004-06 PROJE~N.S
GMJ

10.1
U

9.1
8.7

LEGENDS

BED. 1.00 1:1.00 w.vi)

Prit8

9.7
6.2

Of ~

III

III

III

III

A
65

Pr1cII Grvwth PM.isbtnClI


Predk.UbllitJ'

85
40

_E.milllP

..n:.=:,::~c:=,:,,"=:e~lI-::
~
5Ill'l'ir:e p1Illlld.

--..g.., ..... III *"'-i:

October 26. 2001

Comp.ny's FIn.ncid Shngth


Sklclr's p,,~ Sb1lJIIy

. , ",

: II:

11-,

3 Newll1JOOl
3 NNlllD1l
3 Mea-lll2W1

TIIEUllES5

WID
TECHNICAL

low;

15.8
11.3

0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0

0.0
0.0

I
Mediill: IIJ)
HIf

22.8
20.0

29.3
12.0

50

Gain

Rftlm

I"S~l
+40'%

25%
18%

26.0
18.0

",
"j

DJFII"IIJJA

.... ..

30281

1"..

1998 1~99_1

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 1I3QIlI'


yotill Debt S717.S mi. Due brS YI'I S6251!11.

29.1
30~
1'.1
1.0\
9.12Yt
239.4
492.1
57 !I"

..

..

..

..

..
..
..
..
..
.
..
.

LT ntRrat $64.0 mil

(355%dCap~
1II_n,

Nooe

UnClp1ta1lz1ld;

P.nsiOft L1lbiltty None


PId Di'd $.2 mil
Pfd S10el $7.0 mil.
l.5lJlo oICap'l)
Common Stock 98,841,322 shs.
(64%dOo,,
MARKET CAP: $2.5 billion (Mid Cap)
ASSElliifSllilJ
Lc.ns
Funds Sold
Securities

Other Earning

Other

2000 013010'
2174.4
1228.5 1788.0
..
..
..
..
..
81.5

..
..

..

UABIUTlES(IIIIU1

Deposits

,,- ,
T'"

..

..
..
..

'908

Funds Borrowed
Long-Term Debt
~quily

82.0

105.5
487.3
674.5

22.7
1290.0

..

704.6
1036.7
30.5
1853.8

..

..

207.0
717.5
1307.3

35.0

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..

..
..

..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

"
"

..
"
"
"
"
"

"
'

1.64

1.94

1.43

1.60

U1
12.07
".29
9.6
.62
9-'%

'.55

56.13
141
.74
6."
!56.1
800.3
10.0

.,

93.5"
15.91

"

"

1.!O

1."
!9%

BUSINESS: Alilld Capililll Carp. is lie nalion'" largest busineSs devetJprneni almpany. " irrte5tS pnnanly in ~
privait
fnns, ofhring bng-tann i1YeDnent capital mai1.ly through mezzaJ1II1lI debt and equity flllanci)g. " a&3 pW!Dpat9s
in the reIII
esWta tapial rurtBts as an investor n c:mmertial
nutgagebac.k8d I8Cdies. -UBd iI "",uJ*d
ilYes:rnem mmpilny lh8t is.

2286.8

..

Allied Capital CollJoration is making


its debut in The MilulI!' Line Lnvestment
Slfn.'eJ'. It is the country's largest business
llY ...
..
..
development company. It invests mainly in
Loa ..
..
.
middle-market private rompanies through
..
.
mezzanine financing. The company's in..
. 11.o"
Book "alue
..
vestments usually have both a loan and an
T...1\ssets
. 13.5X
equIty ownership component. Most of
co!Full
lOAlS~"J
AlUed's portfalla yields between 12%Mu.31 Jun. 30 StD. 3D OK. 31 Y18%, and has an equity port:I.on,such as
1191 564.5 667.0 739.9 800.3
warrants,
that give ALD the right ta buy
B!5.B 1006 1103 1128
privately held
In the company.
1365
1488 1638 1788
AlUed is organlz
as a regulated Invest2001 1887 2001 2114 me
ment rompany, which means that tn order
2002
24D1l 2500 285/l
to avotd taxation. it must pay mIt at least
EARNUIGS PER SHARE'
Co!F.II
11.. .3' JIl. SOP. So lJo<. S1 Y., 90% of Us taxable income. Therefore, the
company has a very attractive dIVidend
I.
.29
.61
2B
.31
1.!0 yield.
It prefers to make 5- to IO-year in.44
.33
.38
.49
1.64
noncapitaltntensive,
In
.49
.49
.50
.52
1.94 vestments
2001
Z1Q medium-sized firms with long histories
.60
.51
.63
.41
2002
.53
.62
.61
~~ and dominant marl<.et shares. Investors
.31
Allied's quarter-toshould note that
OIYmEJll)S PMl"
c.. QUARTERLT
Full
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Slp.3D Dec.31 Y... quarter share-earnings results may not be
the best way to evaluate its performance,
.. ..
..
..
..
1197
since net reallzed. and unrealized gains are
1991
.35
.35 .31
1.43
.35
included In the bottom llne_ Those figures
1199
.40
.40
.40
.40
1.60
2000
.46 .46
.49
.49
1.82 rely heavily on assumptions made by management because its plrtfoUo consists of
2001
.51
.49
.50
Loan Loss Resrv.

.......

ANNUAl RATES

Pat

,.-

.. .......
,~""

Past

"

Esl'd'll-.

'"''
12""

5~J:s

.""..

.....

1.

.o

100
80
6<

..
'"

,.

2<
20

,,,..

p.nm '1.0
12..1)

5tlan_

m'"

33004

Allied Capital was lormed by lhe 1Je<:em- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
..
..
.. .. .. .. .,
ber 31, 1997 merger 01Allied Capital Corpo..
..
.. .. .. ..
ration, Allied Capital Corporaion II, Allied
..
..
..
..
..
Capital Commertial Corporation, Allied Cap.. .. .. .. .. .. ..
itaI Advisers, and Allied Capital lending
..
..
..
..
..
.. ..
Corporation. Immediately following the
..
..
.. .. .. .. ..
merger, the new enlily, which was previous..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Iy four investment funds and an investment
adviser, became known as Allied capital
..
..
..
..
..
"
Corporation. Over Ihe last three years, the
.. .. .. .. .. .. "
company has raised more Ihan $725 million
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
of equity capital 10fuel its grawih.
..
..
..
..
..
..
"
LT D.btS717.51T1l1.

2006

:duJty

10.12
65.93
'~O
.68
'.1%
1290.0 1!53.'
11285 '188.0
99.1 141.0

..

3-1.6

43.'

351

011.5

98.6

143.1

..

..

1.64"
487.4

I.n%
701.6

614.5

1036.1

-,.:
;;;0.

......

....

2002
1~
120
14.50
'''.00

--

:=

24110
2JIJI

BIll
UJl
HI
710

17S

HI
I~O
".0
ZOCI
HI
USll
W
'351

51.'"

".1

'''''

2<,
6<,

28.'

lie.

cYALIJEUNEPIlB

EIrMIsI' per sh

Dh'd. DKI'd per lib"


B'" YokHo ... III
ClnhICIII Shs Outsrg C
A.. Ann't PIE....
._PIE
....
AVII Ann' DiY'd Y"1IId
T....

--:,'lnII)

!.oMIt
... ... ($I1OI)
No1_
IMn Lou Prov'n ($nil)
~1It"'cl~1

~n:t"'l

". NIIPruI1
HI Inc:cne 11l R*
RIIbn on 1II1IIAINII
,I5D tal0T ... (InoiI)
1525 lO".
5f.~ SIIr. Eq. tD TutI! AIsm
11'" loin. to Tol AaMb
.. 511 Il:.llm on Shr. EatIit
.5ll Reblnld ill Cen Eq
I1lI AD DiY'1is III NIl. PrGf

7.1'"

04-41

Ul
11.
19.10
flO.00
110

.....

7.111

US
HI
1~
10.0

'"

HI
l25ll
'lOCI

aft
N.ft
13.6%
14.6"
f7.'"
.,%
11%
HlIF
.5ll
91%
91%
till
till
nal sUbjllct to rapora18 taxatiJn. PortfoIo: privml finance, 7'2%;
COImlemal raat estate, 28'1.. Acqul'ed SunSooo::e, 9101. Has .bolIt
100 ampby8es (12fOO~ 0IflC8R & dind:n
~
5.9% of l5tock
~1
Prmy). Chaimlln & CEO: Wililm W.bl.
IncorpcwaDd:
55.9%

:;2.3"
951%

96.4\;

,~
....

N.""

Maryland. Adrhss:
1919 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washllgtln,
D.C. 2OOfI..3434. Tel: 202-331-1112. Well.: __ . hdwJp.a1Cm.

many l1IIquld securities that cannot be


~ced as easily as public debt.
e coming year will be a good test of
the company's business model. Allied
has produced solid earnings and divIdends
In every year slnre Its December, 1997
merger (see Short History), but it hasn't
yet weathered
the type of econornlc
downtwn that we anticipate over the comIng months. It has generally invested in
noncycllca1 companies In an effort ta produce steady earnJngs during recessions,
and It should now get a chance to test that
:strategy. We believe that the company will
experience a higher level of loan losses in
the quarters ahead, but Jts ever-growing,
hlghyleldlng portfaUa shauld provIde It
with suffident
interest income to pull
through this cha1lenglng period.
These mares have good total-retunl
prospects
out lo Z004-Zl106.
Although
the stock's appreciation potential ls average, the income that it provides is very appealing. Indeed, for those who are willing
to ride out some short-term uncertainty,
these shares may make a solid addition to
a long-term, growth-and-Income portfolio.
Joseph Espalllat
Nuvember 30. 2001

(A) 0 ....
-I'
........
,..........
reallzBd and ul1I8iIfll8d galls: 118, 45; '99, (8) Next dl't'i:lend meetilg bit Januay. Goes (CJ In mlions. .
46; "00, 41_. Quartss may not Sl.IIlID ... 1 ex ~
14th. DiYidend paymelll: da!f1S:
due \llOUndng. Next Ml1Iilgs I1!pOIt due lite MIlCh 30, June 29, Sept 28, Dee. 28.
II ZOOI. \'1M! lite ~~
1I58WII:l.
is _lined fRn' PI'a5 ~
IfllIIe niIbIe 1t115 fRri*d.t'all ~
TllE I'\MUSHER IS 1)1
OR,," EGORS OR 0MISSWlNSHERr". Th5~
issftly lof!llb!cribf(s~_~iIUn\III~.
dl -.yilt
IIKIld.mat D1.....
"."pt*d.*:IaIi:1I
~
knL IIl1511lb
. 11_'
.
lIlIIdIK
.

r.,.~

..

120
101
1170
11.00

[Ii"...., ........... ,'.... .........

""no.,..

.... .......

...
....
..
.
.
'"

.. TOT. RETUR111D111

....

l<ll1l1

29m

200S

"

"'., " , .,
75
39

Price Rl!Ingit

20 ..

"I

000
2 10' 1 0
000202101
000
1 0 0 0 0 0

Taru-t

- -- - -- -- - -

- - ,- - .

,,-

Institutional Deci.iona

21.6
15.5

24.0
16.5

~'Z:,.~SI~~

lruilder Dec:is~ns

.,,
"".

W~O,63 IlIY1l
llJl
8.0%

Ann,TGtJI

.... ""'"

...,
...,

20.0
12.0

flATIJ'

;:,.;.~~~smgOl

2Q04.lI6 PROJE~NS

..

17.8
13.8

LEGENDS
11.DJamIJS'5psll

BETA .75 (1.oo .. ~

tOg!>

25 451r! 11 9(I'OIo

PRiCE

19.3
13.8

Hi:gh:

coo

AlliED CAPITALNYSE.ALD

.,- -

__

ComP:;; .........

.~
..

, .......

S'mc:k's rim stGIRty


pnc. Growth ~
Earnings p~

II ~
II

...

tnl
pill.
lid.

I "

NMF
NMF
:

II:

II

AMER. GREETINGS NYSE.AM


I
I
3_",,"

TWEUIIBS

SAmY
TECHNICAL
BED.

.as

High:
Low:

'8.;
13.3

28.2
18.8

20.8
15~

2003-45PRUJtC1lO~~.
GaIn AnD""
"""
low li5'1:~1
.u"

49~~

'"'''7

."l'

' .'
I'.........
.

. h~: -.
-.

...

..

.""
."

,II,

27A

-.

.
"

."

..

1990

22.35

1991
2'-6$

1992

2293

...

21'

."

21' '"

... ,~.

7,.4"

,.I'

... ,...

1145.8
175.4
11.8
2245
417.7

DeblOuo

V, V,

1100.7

1249.7

".........

ANNUAL RATES
)

"CDh Flaw"
Book VallJI

109.7

310.3

..1.!!
582.5

.......

8.1l1lr

lo.n

6.1l1lr

aOll
10.5"

CIlI_VSAW{I"~'
... .31 A.a.31 Nov.30 F,bPor.
1991 415.1 484.7 639.1 599.3 21!l8.8
1991 ~1.9
419.7 638.4 599.7 2205.7
1199 458.8 477.8 623.4 615.2 21752
. 595.7 493.7 76IJ
715J 2575
2IlO1 f45
ff5
7IS
755
EARllNGS PER SHARE Iii II
M.. .31 Aua.J1 NOY.30F,bP...
1891
.40
.17 1.07
.13
237
1191
.44
1.16
.82
262
.20
19911
.16
d.Ol
.81
.~
1.81
2IlOO
.91
1.95
.01
.8S
.'9

.~
.....,

-eo

JIJ

U5

1.15

CllARTBU.Y DMJEtIJS PAIl C.


Ibdl
Jun.30 .... 30 Doc.31
1991
.16
.16
.11
.11
1997
.18
.17
.17
.18
1991
.18
.10
.10
.18
1019
.19
.19
.20
.20
.20
.21
.20
~ F""'i " ....
"" day. Feb. 01_.
CoI-

iIIns, calendln,
b8Ioons and IntllfNl ops.) A50
(HDIy Hobbie, ~
Shcrtt:lke, CIA
EIeIn, lit aI.) Acq'd: Gibson Gnlel. 3100. Sot! AtmiI F1wTe, &97;

213.Dlicenses chanIcters

25

COInd1es, gl'lWin

213.2

5.0%
9.0%

11..5"
85%

~~

21101

259.' AmerlC.lllJ
Greetings
should post a
84'.2
mooest share-net
this year. The
Pat: Est"d "11.'. first two quarters or
Pal
cal 2000 (ends Feb1nrs.
n...
ruary 2001) were slightly better the prior
5.1l1lr 6.0%
9.5"
year 5 respective
periods. The second
9.1l1lr 5.5%
9.5'"

Sol..

.'

- -- - --

- --

48
32
2.

20

"

'2

.......

.... ",,. a
.....
".
"VAlUEUIIEP1J8,INC. oW5

2.85

Full

Vou

.66
.10
.14
.18

Isaln

quarter would have been better. but for tncreased expenses associated with the &C~ulsItion of a greeting-eard competitor.
Ibsen Greetlngs, and higher losses at Its
Internet
subsldllll)',
Amerlcangreetmgs.com. Furthennore.
an accounting
change shifted about 582 million In sales
to the thJn1 quarter. All things considered,
we view the second-quarter gain of $0.01,
a two-cent tIilprovement over the prior
year. as a good perfonnance. Earnings in
the second half of 2000 should improve.
mainly reflecting growth In candles and
~p
.
e Internet
business continues
to
lose money. This year. losses for the unit
are nmnlng at an annual rate of $0-25$0.35 a share. This is not overly troubling.
because the highly pOpular Web slf.e Is
growing very fast. We expect losses here to
be reduced over the next year, and then
reach modest profitabillty in 2002, as revenues expand enough to cover costs.

1 Y'.
, Y'.
-Y'.

1998
1999 2l1OO 2001
31.92
33.71
4(35
(15
3.10
284
US
2.82
1.81
1.15
~45
.14
.18
.rJ
AI
.88
.19
1.11
1.15
19.49 19.41 Z-UD :IUl
59.'"

16.6
.86

1.1,

'4'

..........,::

-....

111%

8.0%

14.01

951

10.1"

5."'''

43'

us

9.5S
uS
41%

".2

w.lpwlh A
"Clih Flow" 1*Ih
Eamklgi pi!' III
Im'dl DId'd ,...,. c

A.

",!~ ...",
Boat. Val...
III

..
., '::~-

".52

3.0'
2205.1 21152
2575
11111. 13.D% IUS
61.0
54~
188.6
t19.1
125
36.21 33. '
JI.OS
8.~% 5.5%
"S
128.1
5181
7..
4632
4421
525
1346.6 12524
1325

28%

-33.11
51.8

-319.0

pi!'

AVI AnnT Pit" KdlI

WI

~7D

,.......

('"

.....

R_PJERdo
Avg Ann' Di'l'd 'r..."
'2Jl5ol SII.. ~)A
IUS O_M
.....
19.0 D_=II)
170 Nil ,,",II
JUS b:cnt Tu RaIt
lOI NIl ""'11M..,
Cop' {$noli)
71J
525 longT"" OobIllmIIl
1_ S1ir,-"""IS--i
9-'" RnnnClllTlIIIIC.'1
11..1SRftIm lift Shr. Equity
RItIintd ID en Eq
AI D/Y'dl to NIl PraI

W_.

."
"'"

WG

1M
.JQ

US
DlO
1"'"

....
235

JI."
&"
q

5fIl
1I0Il
11.1%
111%
11."
2R

8/97. Selas outslle of U.S., 19.5% d '99 tDtIt adv. cosIs,


3.5%. Has 0YeI" 34,000 ernpbyees.
orrs. & on. own 41 .. of com
moo 14'% d vee); C.lpilaJ GIJ8I'd.. 7.2!1o; INVESTeD, 8.5"';
BfllI'les, 6.9%: capital Res., 7.4% (5lW proxy~ Ctwmn., Pres. &
CEO: ....orry WIIlSS.: OH. Addr.: 1 ""-i::lIn
Rd., CllNrxI, OH
44144. Tel: 216-252-7300. Web: www.llnllicangreelligs.a::m.

WNh:IId,

over
Profits should accelerate
the
next. few years. The acquisition or Gibson
Greetings should add about 50.50 a share
to annual earnings, when fully Integrated
(In 20(2), given the large reduetlon In
duplicated overhead.
combined with
lower loses at the Web unit. assuming it
reaches breakeven, will lead to a 50.75 improvement in annual share net. Then. the
recent acquisition
of CPS Corporation
(giftwrap). along with continued growth in
AM's candles and giftwrap businesses,
should result in the balance of future
8a1ns. Stl!l, the traditional greetlng-eard
business In the U.S., a dependable. noncyclical cash generator. is unlikely to grow
much as the market is mature .
appreciation
'This issue
has wide
potential
for
the 2003ZOO5
period.
High-y1eldl"8 AM stock trades at a low
PIE ratio. despite prospects ror good earnings gains over the coming 3 to 5 years.
We attribute the current undervaluation
to the earnings contraction in J 999. combined with increased. cOilitiuon
and stagnatlng volwne in the
.5. greetlng-card
market .
And.l"l!"W T. Berger
Ortober 13, 2000

nus.

'93, i2-.l FA58 121 -"'~'


41#. Nul
_. 24th. 00"..__
'" "., .....:~
egs. rvp. due mil-Dee.. (el D;"'d psyment
(D) Class B: 10 mra pIf shanl. (E) In million..
StDct'. flee StablIItJ
d*s: llboutthe 10th ol"Mar., JlIne, Sept., Dec. IIdjusllldlarRd spit (F) OuartIlr1yegs. don'
Price Growth Plirsldnce
Na1t dWd dectnd IaIe Od. Next ex-dN'd "'..
ellUIl fu' ye;J1 due ~ I:hangeilin ft. out.
Eamlnp
P.-ictIIliItJ'
ZUlQ. ViIbe lJIe ~
R. AI ~
1I5eYlIlI. hdllll maIftiII a otuaB:I .... 5GUIa5 iIeIIirIed 10be ......
ispmiIIlI ....... ~
rI
Utd.
THf PUBl.IStI.R 5 flJT
POtCSBU: ORN4Y[RRORSOR OMIS9!JNSHR[III. TJlis~is.-cs,"~_.rIIlIIwm""'iIlImIIlI5e.
o~

".
rl ~mI]' lit ......
*-I c.- ~
ill my pded. *-it c.- dI.- kInL II" I$fIl .. ~
c.- ~
q ......
c.- *SImiI: pIiIIlDIin.,nee II" poUt.

r:::

yr. (8) Prirray ags.1tIrDugh '96, di f1fn.


Emudes nIr
(bs:seI); Q1 "OO,41;
02 '00, (Sf4); '99,
~ '98, (141); '91, 1~;

....

....
..

'-."

'.0

tl'llded

"."

Otho<
Curnlrd. Liab.

Target Price R8ngtt


2003 2004 2005

, TOT. RETURlllIIDD

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997


26.81 28.82 1OB9
23.88 25.15
,.99 2.20 2.57
3.02
3.41
1.91
2.92
3.09
Ul
1.40
155
200
201
W
W
231
.35
.38
.12
.~ 55
.82
.61
.11
.12
.94
1.06
124
1.39
1J1
.95
'-23
10.39
1205
13.01
16.53
18.90
1421 15.61
18.16
5322
11.11 "-'"
14.30 74.71 miB
11.18
14.12
13,
14.3
14.4
124
12.7
18.4
1<2
15.1
.84
.1
Jl3
.96
.18
.81
1.9,
1....
2 ...
21'
1.7"
1412.1 1554.0 1671.1 1no.O 1865.9 2003.0 2161.1 2196.8
13.1% 135'
14.4% 15.5" 162'
15-" 15.7' 15.~
~5
88.4
75.3
422
54. 6$.
".5
825
1502 167.1
116.
'7.~ 112.3 130.9
34.51 33.81 34.3\ 34.9%
37.5%
36.8' 36.3' 38....
Lau .. , UII~Annua'
I1Intats$482 nd.
5.8%
8.0%
6.3'
8.""
15'
6.1'
7.1"
Pension Liability NOII8
4842
629.0 581.7 474.3 5312 516.3
506.1
5622
255.7
169.4
145
231.1
1~2
542
219.6
148.8
Pfd Stodl None
656.6 868.1 9525 1053.4 11595 1235.0 1361.1 13462
,on 11.1% 122'
10.1%
12.7\
12.6%
CcmrnOllS1Dct 64.4 mil. shns D (75% of cap'~ 10.3%
12.8%
1221 12~I 13.1"
11.3\
12.4%
Induda4.7ml.
Class B shaleS
12..6'
11ll'
MARkET CAP: $1.2 blDion (lIId Cap)
82%
8.6%
9.3%
.~%
9.0"'
S.""
8.6'
'2'
CURRENT POSITION
5/31JOG
211
m
30'4
M
3'"
IlIIlL)
71.3 BUSINESS: Ameri:an Greeti1gs Co'porat:ialIS th8 HCOfId-largesl.
61.0
144.6
eo"' ......
Re_
390.1 430.8
428.6
u.s. lRducer of grwting cards (65" of 1999 SIlts). Also m.m15
312.1
Invemory (LIFO)
251.3
249.4
D1'twmps .00 .IICCeSSCIills (1"%~ BJXl OClwiiIlms (21~
QIho,
259.5
437.1
359.2
CUrnlnlAlSliJtS
Aa:ts. P2yllble

22..

4.7%

24.1
15.3

il

..

.""

44.'

~'rr,,-

0,

"

p.rcem 11.0
OIl aha..-s 12.0

.,""
1986

53.8
35 .

40.'

48'77
~
1987
1988
1989
1984
1985
20.10
1U2 15.13 17.15 18.56 19.46
1]'1
1.30
1.16
1.46
152
'-38
1.18
1.16
.69
1.13
.93
52
~1
.33
.33
ZI
.33
.33
.ril
.88
.96
l.ul
1...
8.78
6.68
1>0
8.16
Ml
'.44
6428
120
142
18<
ZLI
14.'
12'
1.19
1.17
1.15
122
.9lI
U8
1.9%
2.9'4 3.3'
23'
1.8'
20'
CAPITAL STRUCTURE u or 5131.
TobIl D-bi S72U mil. DIW m 5 YIS $400.0 mi.
LTDebt $414.1 mi.
LTI....
S27.0m"
(Total int8resIlXM!dge:
6.01)
(25%"eop~
:::..

25.9

305
23.5

II,IJI

45 +150%
Insid.r Dee.ions
KOJf.A_"J
000
0 0 0 2 0 0
00000
0 0 0 0
000000000
InstHutiOnlll Deci.tonl

33.
255

34.

DIVll
lID

~~.~srrcessicrr

RItIIm

'20

34.'
225

91~ ~ELATTI'E
Pi RAOO.0 66

III

'00

.;,h

....:=
.... ......, ,_

18 PRAOO 9 2 (TniiWI!:ns:

L.EGENDS
9.D ~ -c.", r.... F sh
. . . R~
Pm 5nngth
2.for-1 ~
91!13

3 ""'''"
4 _~"""
om. MIIld)

Prica

1B.~
10.2

I~CEMT
PRICE

:1

65
30
70
:, I:

II'

Imoo

AMPCOPllT
NYSEAP
5 _~ un,,,,

1IlIEIJII[SS

,.,

TECHNICAl.

SAFETY

3 Ntwll21l30
3

_nn..,

ITA is (1.110 .. MM\d)

2_

4.0%

IPffiCE

High: I
Low: I

12.1 I
4.91

9.3
5.9

10.3

'.1
5.5

9.9
6.1

'.3

11.4
7.8

14.0
10.0

20.6
11.1

12.9
9.2

Target Pric. Range

13.3
8.9

2QDot 2005

RdIllM

':e.....

______

24

'"

'.

111'"

1
. "1 1.

..'\....

0 0 0

./"

0 0 0

....

'"

'"

.,

51.1

14.2
_

49.2
48.0
S.7
120.8
13.8
2.0

48.6

47.7

--.!!
116.4
13.0

....

....

'.

.. .'

1.26
14.86

123
15.91
]"

9lI!

10.4
.60
1.7\

92
.48
2.51

15
.43
3.4\

6.6
.44
3.6'"

173.9
11.0\
6.1
14.3
36.2~
83
1~
12.6
129.4
10.4%
11.1,,"

a.s"
23"

'.68

Uab.

':l ~:: ~;~The

n--.,

1.

1".
3 yr.
5yr.

1.31
16.92

1.00
11.40

1.00 C..,1~g
1llO 80ak

I.Il

1"0-

eo
MIi ~

~
-15.0
-2:H

~
30.-4
70.1

... '"

3
~

1.50

YIIue='
" :.!~t~'l~.OO~
.......
'hI

1''11''''

R_
PiERdo
AvgNlIl'lth'dYIIkI

".0
...
1.0%

210
Z30 W.I(W)
JZO
10% 10.5% 0
15.0%
'.0
U Dopnd.... (",II
100
111.0
U NIIPn7t1I~
14.0
HIE
30.0% ......
Tu Rato
30.0%
NIE
1.5% NllftroltlllrPl
r..n;
10.0
90.0 W_g Cop' (lmil
121
15.0
f5.0 Lon;~T~ ~($niII1
U.O
151
110 $hr. EauiIv 1$nII)
ZOO
HIF
5.0% RllumonTDlaCIfI'
12.0"
NIIF
5.OS RdJmCl'lS/x.E~
'lt1"
NIF
U"
RIIIinecI1DCOI'lIEq
10.0'%
25"
z.fl
NIIF
"'" AZIDlI"nkllMtFl'of
1ft
ulMy, cherric:lll pnx;essing, pIaSIEs, and mama defense ~
H.s 1,817snpbyees, 1,027sb:.1ho1d8n. '00 dapwG. 1ft: 4.1%.
G.beli Foods, lnc.. owns 19.8%ci OXIIIIXln. Oftian 8nd Dir8c1on.
28.0%. (:W 1 Proxy.) CMirman: lOIIiI Bwtman. PntsiJent and

187..9 211.S
1!i.4% 14.4\
I.S
1.6
15.1
15.1
33.1~ 33.3%
S.3ti
7.11
61.3
18.3
12.6
14.7
142.3 152.6
10.4% 9.1%
11.0% 9.9%
8.6'7.4"
22"

228.0
12.9'"
1.4
162
262%
7.11
862
14.7
162.5
9.4%
10.0%
7.6"

Uni:rn Eledn:
SI8eI subSiliary) prYnllllly. produall' rI forged hard9nell nel roIs
for 1M n the ....
nd 8b'ninurn inllllaie ... It is .Iso (through its
Awufn, Buft;lIo,.. Handq, Buffa b~.
New Ca 5tIe IndUStries,
.nd F.R Gross sUlJIilirils) makBr 01 aI" ami Iqui:! handling
t.E.O.: Robflrt A.. Paul. IIlWld4l&d: PA.. Adena: 1500Grant
equq:.nenl.nd ~
~
mltCliiwy' lor the construetmn, Shet, Sum 4600, Pllsburgh, PA 15219.Tel.:412-456-4400.

~=';;~:::---=-""":=-=-::';"=O::=:-1

1-'"
13.51

9.sa

......

"" Tm. RIlIaI11101


....

naw-concluding
year was largely
forgettable
for Ampco-Pittsburgh.
the
ANNUAl HAlES Pm
PDt bt'd
DO maker
of for~ed
hardened steel roUs and
d ..........
'
fiT...
n...
d
U
dUn
chi
B
Sales
-'.0%
11.5%
8.S"
air an
qui han
8 ma
nery.
ut it
"Cash Flow"
3.5% 16.0%
8.m.;
was not the disaster it was for many
steel
Eamngs
7.5% 22.5%
7.5"
concerns, Indeed. certain industry players
DMtends
2.5% 24.0%
".~
d
Book
Villus
2.0% 8.5% ".OK
were deeply In the re , whUe a minority
i-=::"::;:::=-=::=:::;::;':'=,~~--r:'::"'-j within this beleaguered sector, including
e.
QUAR1Bll.YSA~(S"~
Full some of Ampco.Pittsburgh's
customers,
ndu llu31 JunJO
.30 Dtc.31 Y.r were forced to seek bankruptcy protection.
1911 48.6 46.8 46.1 46.4 187.9 Here. though, a strong balance sheet, an
,.
49.4 48.9 51.9 61.6 211.8 acquired ruche In Jess commodJtY-oriented
2001
60.2 58.0 52.8 57.0 228.0 steel businesses. and a growing an"aY of
2001 56.2
56.6 53.4 53.' UO less __
Heal nonsteeJ lines hel~d the steel
2lI02
55.0 10.0 55.0 10.0 23D
-,~
rEARMH6SPERSHARfA
and industrial company Lo pern.aps nearly
ea.
Uu'l Ju. '1eD..:Full break even for the 12 months.
That would
endu ~
- - -~...
Y.r
be an enviable performance.
given the
1.
.49
.44
.34
.37
1.64 charges for plant closures. a now-settled.
1.
.35
.42
.36
.45
1.58 lawsuJt and customer barlknIptdes that
200lI
.43
.42
.34
.49
1.68 we have included in our 2001 estimate.
200'
d.2B d.08 .17
.01
d.fO The new year
wiJl be deddedly better.
2002 QUARlERLYOM>EJI)SPAID.
.15 .211 .211 .25
.10 a Ith oug h th e m ~
tu d e 0 r th e prospective
CtJ.
Full move into the b ack is not aU that well
end.r Mar.]'Jlln.30 Sep,3D Dec.3' Y.r defined given the timing and the extent of
,.
.16 .ce
.0;
.~
.34 the business revival here and abroad. The
.09 .09 .09 .09
.36 strong dollar. too. is a lingering concem as
,.
.10
.10
.10
.10
.40 Ampco retains considerable dependence on
2IIQO
.10
.10
.10
.10
.'''
.. overseas business actiVity. Conversely, we
2001
.10
.10
.10
.10
=m

.2
10

.,

'"

II

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990


48.32 39.90 29.20 26.16 22.89 22.68
1.50
UN
1.65
1.59
1.72
1.80
.11
d.19
.704
.58
.86
.96
.10
.10
.30
.10
.30
.30
1.26
.14
.18
.96
.61
.65
.74
.10
15
.42
.48
.93
20.14 lS.14 1568 1268 13.20 13.54 11.86 9M
9..52 10.75 11.71 12..49
~jS
-935 >58 . 9.58 9.68 '.sa
'.57 9.sa '.sa
'.sa
,-'"
,-'"
80.8
. "~
23.3
16.6
'.6
..
..
21.6
16.0 10.0
'.5
5..56

1.33
1.93
1.28
.64
..
..
1.21 1.05
.61
.60
21'
2.0% 2.Oft
2.2..
2.11.
3.6'
4.01
4.0% 2.0% 1.3'
1.6% 2.0%
CAPITALSTRUClURE u at l/3OIIIt
221.4 190.3 108.& 113.B 143.8 162.4
Tgtal DrlbtS14.7miL Due In 5 Yrs $3.4mi.
10.0% 4..9% 10.0!. 12.0'" 13.8% 14.9'"
LT Dl:bI S14.7mil.
IT Inttral $1.0mill
8.8
8~
52
5~
5.1
62
(Totall"lkll1!sl.lXMr.Ige:
6.Qx.)
d2.9
1122
3.3
4.1
9.1
11.9
(6%.. c.,'Q
..
.. 2O.6~ 38.5~ 35JT, 35.0%
P.nslun UabOi1y NDne
NftfF fMF 3.'"
'Uti
6.~
;oJti
49.3
45.0 39.9
595
61.0 13.0
27.8
27.3
1.4

12.6
PId stoc:k None
113.5
94.3
91.2 103.0 112.1 119.7
CommonSlod:9,608,597shs.
(91%afC8p'Q
NMF NMF 3.6'4.7% 8.1'"
9.0%
udlkl'l'l'lnbell,2001
NW" NI\lF 3.6% 4.6% 8.1% 9.9%
MARkET CAP: 5100 IIIllllon (Sm.1I C.p)
NMF
NMF 1.7'4
3.61
7X
8.7"
CURREJlfPOSmoN till
2GOO WJ0e01 NW
NMF
52\
M
11"
12"
(IOLLl
Cash Ass8b
16.3
17.9
15.3 BUSINESS: Ampco-PllsblIgh Corp. ira (thrwgh lis
47.3
~ 118.6

'",.

~
~

ReQ!!iYables
1!'f'I8'I'IIOrY(LIFO)
Other
CumllnlAuets
Acct$ Pll)'llbJe
Debt Due

32

S tm'SJD'I

II

..

2006

SO

p!ll
Stl'lSIgUl

1'rl"'I~.... ~l....
. ""'.
34%

22%

14.1
9.2

LEGENDS
1.0 J CI!II ibtr'"

PROJECllONS.
Am,TcrIII

IIgtl
30 +2OO"t.
lDII'
20 +100%
In&ider Decisions
F.A.JJASO
.1Iy
0 0 0 2 0 0
~
000000000
IIS11 0 0 0 0 0 0

19.t!
9.9

wouJd assume the afarementJaned charges


for the customer bankruptcies. the plant
closings,
and
the law suit
will not recur.
Th at res uItant posit! ve s win g. a be tter
steel environment. and solid demand for
air and Uquid handling
equipment will
I __
probably enab e ........
~Pittsburgh
to earn
between $0.50 and $1.00 a 5hare In the
upcoming 12-month stretch
Stability,
meanwhile,
is likely
to be
the rule he.re going forward. If Ampco's
comparative success .In prosperous times
during the past decade did not convince it
to malnlaln lIS financial and operational
conservatism.
this past years respectable
achieved in spite of steels recent
reve
. most assuredly will. But ...
Even as this industrial
manufacturer
is now configured
there is plentiful
earning power around. with the bottom
lIne likely to average $2.50 a share
uall y over an exten ded ec:onami c a nd
ann
capJ tal goods up cycle.
Thus,. the stock., although
untimely,
retains considerable long-tenn appeal
for investors
stressing
total return
from a basic industry participant.
HsrvPv
December 28. 2001
'-J S. Katz. CFA

sh~J~

I~ 9.90 I~oo14.6(~::i~:)

ANGELICA CORP. NYSEAGL

3 _~'15"
SAFElY
3 NewJI2UID
nCHNICAI. 3~1""
BETA

low:

LEGENDS
S.D I-C_"

~~'ft

PROJECTIONS

GItn
25 (l~55~t
16
+60%
Insider Dee.lons
JF.".JJAI
o 0 a 0 0 0
000 000
000
000

RdIm
211"
15%

27.5
19.4

29.'

2.5

23.6
15.6

25.1
18.1

24.5
14.1

"A

lQ'Oj

50
40

..

..

,'1,,11""'1

,I'" ...
'

"

", ,

- -- -

,
- .~ r

"

,~-

""

c"prrAL STRUCTURE as of tamID1


DUll In 5 Yn $14.1 mil.
Tml Debt $74.1
LTlntemt $5.0 mill
LT Dlbt $67.2 ml.
(l T iltaesf.-ned: 2.tI'; tJtal ilfsest
(29% cfGap'l)
lXM!IiI(I8: 2. b:)

m"

Leu., Uncap/tlllizid Annual nmtilllS $9.6 mil.


'.nslon U.b11tyNone
PM Stock None

(1'"

Commgn Stcx:1I8,607,499 Ihs.


as of !II01101
IlARKET CAP: US m1Dion (Sm.1I Cap)

...

(FIFO)

Al::Jf3Payabie
DeblOue
01h00"

37.9
189.3
23.S
48.2

"'_I.d,

.~
,.

Xi.
1.
1911

2001
2001
2002

ca,

Put
1UIL

salos

2001
2OD2

27.4
27 .

3.0%
-1.5'".0%

...'''''',

.5"

1.0%

........
4.5"

T.""

11.5"
NMF

-~O%

3.'"

lIIlARTERLYSillSll1IIilJ '
lAor.p.r Jul.P,r. OclP.r Jan.P"
128.6 123.2 121.6 118.2
121.1 115.8 116.6 109.
113.3 113.9 l1a.3
113.1
119.5 117.0 119.1 11(4
1211
1211
125
m
EARHllGS PER SHARE. It.
Apr.Per Jul'p., Oct.Per Jan.Per
.26
.31
.22
.211
.29
.15
.07
.10
.18
.23
.14
.21
.17
.21
.12
.10
.1,
.11 .17
.1ll
QUARTERLYD1'IIlElllSPAIO c
Jun.30

Sep.30

.24

.24

19t9

.2.
.2.
.2.

.2.
.24
.2.

.2.
.2

2D01

.08

.24
.08

.08

54.4

Est'd'l"'.

1.5%
-25%
-9.0'1
-3.0%

Ilr.31

,.

6.9
28.4

81.3

1991

.ndar

64.3
38.2
188.4
21.1

36.6

....l11 ~

ANNUAL RATES

1189

10.0

54.'

205.7

3.0

CurrenlLiab.

"CashF\ow"
Eamr.gs
Dividends
Book Value

2<).3
65.0
91.8

15.7

Current Assets

of tap'Q

2001 1C11Z1101

65.7
80.

Receivables

Dec,31

.24
14
14

.08

.08
.08

IAl:::r
end. flllil S8tll"doll)'11Jln~
of
c:a18rldll'" year. flSC8l 1991 & 199
e.ch tnntl1i1ed 53 W88ks.
(8) Di.rt8d urningI. Exdudes non-t'8Clmtg

C lUll, YIllIe IiIe ~


1H PU8UStRI5IlTR[
al t..,. bt ~
ItSIIId.lDeIl'

24
20
16

12
10

.lI.

IOu,:

-,.::

~
~

reened.

~
491.6
462.9
458.6

4111

~
.99
.61
.76
.60
.1Il

''''

Y",

.96

.96
.96
.64

""

1.1"

''''

51'

03'

...

7.7
-311.'
.

'2'

JO.'

10.1

cYALUELlfEPUB .. IIC. OUI


sauplrM A
lUO
"Cull Flow" .. oil
<10
Elminglli per sh
1.50
Dlv'd. Dld'c1 pII' Ih C
100
tip'
oil
111.
loalYlful .. '" D

."
sa,

63'

""

...

""'''1..

cnrwon

Shl Dutsfll e

I .. .,P/E ....
RIIItiY. PIE Rdo
Avg Ann' DlY'd Y.-cI

__

I'

a.oc;-I"'"I

N..
W_I
I

::I,lnIJ

u.:.

stir. ;::
(
Rnn an Talil CIP'I

R...........

lDO

...

110
tlll'

Doonio.Ii_

,,. ""'!!_.....
Cop'lllnml

.'"

E' ....

RI'Iained to elllll Eq
AD DiY'ds 10 Nil Prat

'*:

15%
21.0
12.0
3lOll
WI

,,.

10.0
110
llll'

...,.

,.5%

27"

BUSINESS: AnlJl!lica capentDn proviles 1eJ:tJ1& rental and


laundry ll!lI'Vices to tJelI1tIl-car8 t1si1u1ions (50'" cI '00 sa_, 63%
of op. pn:Ilb); cn.nufac:hns and marblb unibms tJr various innluli:ms and busineues (311. 28'1); opnte; natDnlll chili! rI
nlIaii unibm and .hoe stores (19"'. '11). End-us8 marmts by
2000 lilies lDfIbiMJIi:Jn: 11'1 healh .... i:es; 19" hospila~ 10'"

other serviat industrBs. 'UO deprec;iati:)n


7.7%. Est. plant-ae:
9 yean. Has 1,600 employees, 1,750 sharelx*kn.
Ofts. & DR.
awn 1.B% d tormIOO; FnI: Padr;, 18.4'1; Dlnensional Fund,
B.6'1 (4,(11 pI'Qll:y).Chairman, Pres. & CEO: Don W. Hubble. Inc.:
MO. AdO'ess: 424 South Woods ... Road, Chesleffield, YO
63017-3408. Tel: 314-854-3800. Inllll'T1llt .....
ng.lic.lI.lxm.

The weak economy is taking a to)) on


AngeUca Corp . despite its strong pres
ence in the relatlvely recession resistant
health-selVlces
lndU5t1y (about 70%
of
sales). The manufacturlng segment has
been hurt by soft demand from the lodglng. focx1-servtce,and gaming sectors, partlcularly in the wake of September's terromt attacks. Meanwhile, the company's
unlf'onn stores have been unable to overcome a sluggish retall environment.
Angelica's
largest
segment,
textl.1eservices. has fared better, but with a handfuI of plants serving lhe hospitality Industry, its prohts have not been completely
immune to the recent eoonomic downtwn.
All told. we now look for ean1Jngs in fiscal
2001 (ends January 26. 2(02) to fall about
20%, to SO.60 a share. Despite the weak
profit performance, the company has been
able to reduce its long-term debt by about
S15 million this year.
Salcsbuilding initiatives are yielding
solid results
in the text:iJe-services
business. Revenues in this division are on
track to rise about 5%-7% this fiscaf year,
the ftr.st such increase in several yean;.
The company has been winning accounts

from competltors and also having success


at convincing hospitals to out.soun:e their
lanndry services. Efforts elsewhere have
borne less fruit. New customers accounted.
for about 109bof t.hin:l-quartEr sales in the
manufacturing division. but this was not
enough to offset lower demand from exlstIng accounts. Meanwh1le, the unifonn
chain ha5 been expanding
Into new d1.trlbutton channels (catalog and the Internet).
but sales at its stores, particularly those
located in malls. have been falling.
These shares are best suited for
patient
investors. The stock does offer
attractive total-return
potential looking
out to 2004-2006. A healthier U.S. economy .hould
help IIsca1-2002 earnings
rebound from this year's depressed results.
The company, however, will likely also
have to achieve more consistent success on
the sales-building front in order to meet
our 3- to 5-year sales and earnings projections. Thus. we would not expect the market to muster much enthusiasm for this
ranked
stock until
top-line
neutrally
trends In the manumcturlng
and retail
segments improve .
Robert M. Greene, CFA December 14, 2001

dlIIes:: Jan. 1, Apr. 1, July 1, Oct. 1.


(DJ Includes intangibI8!L In '00: $5.3 mlion,
6UJst\ilIQ.
(E) In mlions.
bdiMIIllI be ...
MIl i!I. pw*d .c1llU. .......,
al ~ UJd.

gall (bss!: '91, 21_; '95, (~): '97. ($1.57).


N8Jj &amngs rvpcl1 due mi1-March.
(C) Next divijend mestilg eIrIy Mardi. Goes
ex-diwdmiI-Man::t'l. Appro.l. difd p.I)'1'1811
rldllli

-::

"

N"""'llIlllili
I' ~cantTuRdi

'"

",

.....
""

,1,..,..
,,..

199.~1
2002
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996.98
.41.01
51.85
5318 53.58 'iT.31 56.10
.153
53.36 53.89
IU'
3.02
1.11
3.02
2.60
3.00
319
3.03
3.28
1.13
1.53
"II
1.50
1.44
1.08
.82
S9
.76
.10
.10
113
.88
.81
]6
]6
]2
.64
.95
.96
.48
.32
.32
.96
.93
]6
]1
tOO
126
1.32
1.00
1.38
1.75
.86
'.SO
18.91 19.12 'a.84
19.24
211.68 21.13 2151 211.13
fUD aWl
8.54
U.. 100
9.12
8.68
9.06
9.09
8.'1
'.1.
'.13 '.'6
22.,
23..
2111
11.04
18.3
211.5 18.2
23J
2a
1.11
1.19
1>0
1.49
1.35
1.05
.I
111
115
3.1Ti J."
3.K
5.0fi
r.11
''-&,;
31'
4-"
5.6"
434.5 430.8 421.1
412.8
481.0 4891
526.5
491.6 461.9
468.6
416
4JO
7.%
7.4%
1.lll'
1.5%
13.B% 11.n. 10.6' 10. '
9. %
a.1%
8."
16]
14.8
16.0
16.4
16.9
11J
11.3
11.3
15.6
17.0
11.0
16.6
6.6
21.7
13.8
13.1
9J
a.o
1..
a.9
~o
111
5.3
38....
37,01 31.0'
3llll'
38.51 38.5' 38.0" 38.0%
310ll
31""
38.0' 383'
2.lll\
1.!1
1.4%
1,6' 1.041
3"
1."
1.'"
2."
1.1"
160.4 161.1
ml 150.1 181.1 163.0 142.0 136.1 1.41.1 12U 1"
69.1
100.1
96.1
90.9
61.0
80..
761
71.3
97.04
87.9
10.0
10.0
189.2 192.0
196.7 189.5 1691 1lti
165.8
163.4
164.3
115
'903
'15
.
3.5lI
6.1% H%
9.5%
5.1"
3.7'4
<lll'
4.3"
04.4"
5.4%
4.0%
3.0% <OlI
5n
1.3'
6.6'
31'
11."
'1'
7.61
1.41
.K
Nil' 1.51 1.5% l.5lI
2.3"
NO' HM'
l11Ti
53lI
Nil'
100'
3"
6"
6'"
88'
1'"

..."

...... -

'" TOT. RrT1JIUI11101

..

~"

ca,\,8'~

"I"

5.'

,..

=",

32

....

1990
1991
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
44.55 46.64
39.n
28.96 31.34 33.03 3526
3.49
3.09
2.49
2.56
2.71
. 02
1.68
2.06
1.37
2.43
1.64
1.79
1.1ll
.n .84 .89
.59
.61
.70
.13
.68
1.39
1.46
1.41
1.11
1.06
.81
1~55 13.77
211.43
14.95 16.09 '7.36 la.92
l211
9.32
'19
13.1
14.1
141
131
1"
'>7 14.1
1.06
.95
.94
.94
1.00
.95
1.10
2.51
~3\ 1.1Ti 3.1% 3.lll\
1."

CURRENT posrrlON

.... ....

Pe.-c.nt '.0
21 II;h.~

'.3

p sh

rrce!Si:wI

'.

55Il2

Tlrget frie. Range


2004 200S 2D06

14.0
6A

10.9

'.7

"'.,. ,. ,.
533'

28.4
22.5

22.3

000
000
0 1 0

1m.1

17

r...

40.0

'.'

Institutional Decialons

:::'1

..

Am1TcrtII

Price

40.3
29.'

0 77 DIV'YIDD 3.2% .

Prk:e SRrgIl

(1.11O-1UIla)

.is

2......

..,..,
..,

33.9
21.0

High:

TNEUII[S5

RELATlVE
PHAOO.

...n

is oIIliined tlbllllIUteS

ORANYERRORSOR OMIS$tONSHERfIC.
nB~i!isRIJb5Ull5clibln_,_~""lu",
ill." pri*d. tidIri: II lII'Ier JJl'II. ar ltmllar ~
......
1l1J fWiIIlIl ar -.:bIi: ......

pMI

wnU ar fIrII*d.

Company's Fmlldlll StrIngth


S1Det's Price StaWUlJ
Price Growth P.rslstlnce
Elmlngs PrMidabllly
I

.'.

B
60
5
55
It:

II-

2.9%

APPLIED4 -..IND.
TECH. NYSEAII
.,,,,,
High:
low:

1IIIlJNESS

3 LariRltd l1ftIi9D
4 _~.,..,

SAFUY

rrCHNlCAl
~

is

10.6
7.0

10.3
1.4

13.8
9.1

16.7
12.3

19.8
12.2

22.5
18.0

34.4
16.3

29.3
12.0

21.0
14.3

Target Price Range


2004 2005 2006

20.7
15.6

LEGENDS

....~;:::;.,p

50

5h

40
32

PROJECTION~_
'.85%\

Rllllm
,."

(+20%'

""

Insider Deci.tona

D
J FIIA
0000000001

J J

II"'''''''~
,

. '.. ".

1l12li1

12096

11975

,.

20

12
10

. "'U.
AL-_+-:--"'\7'"'-+-:-:I--,+''"'--'1~7t''--_+-"'-'tc:-_+--t_-+--t_-+-_Ir_-+-__+
.
'

--

IQ21t1

P.n:em

~ sh.,..
12041a tradMI

'.'

:~

,1111,

I"

IrwtltutlOMI Decision.

II I'

I"~"I'

I,
I

000010002
000000000
...

2.

Ann, lobi

Gain

Priu
HIgh 3D
lJ:iiI
20

....
I:::",

19.1
11.1

(1..00""'11)

..,.
~
......

12.7
5.9

7.6

1yr.
3yr.
5,....

5.0
2.5

""
""'"'
""'"
..,.
0.2
-10.6
H
-37

2&.3
55.1

20oo~01
2002 cVALUEIJIIEPIl8.~C, ~
1997
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
fOOOO
61.61
62.31 69.48 11.45 19.33 82.71 11.05 SIhs pit Ih A
51.16 50.49 55.14 60.16
24.41
24.12 26.18 31.19 31.93 40.66 51.21
2.18
2.17
115 '"eI1hRow"plnh
3.5.
2.61
2.51
1.55
1.n
2.09
.98
1.32
.46
.7.
1.33
1.63
1..2
1.99
.85
.97
1.46
1.38
.9B
111
.11
.32
.83
1.(19
.90
1.50
1.41
1.10 Ean*lglpll'sb"
100
.19
.55
.75
.54
27
.93
... Div'dlOKl'dperllh
C
.31
.36
.41
.41
1ll
1ll
.22
.25
.28
.48
.48
.46
.28
.28
.28
.28
1ll
UO
1.33
."
.39
.39
121
UI9
'18
J3
-,'6 .66 127 1.16 1.58 .63 .48 .60 ." Cop1Sp .. "lingporoll
11.10 BDoII YIIuI pI ... h E
11.15 13.n
9.43 1010
23.10
13.13
15.11
15.86
e.06 8.19
6.59
6.69
1.41
8.12
8.45 al5
'.67
flOO
.00 cnmon Stll Outlt II D
15.
18.7
7.
1Ei.62
".52
21.47
17.53 ".57
15."
16.
,e>
49.9
16.9
19.4
11.1
115
16.4
I'll Ann' PIE Rdo
10
13.' 13.1
1~'
"..
",J
u.,
10.'
10.
.96
Rtk1l1 PIE Rdo
. 9
1.99 3.03
1.00
.19
1.01
.96
.65
1.12
1.01
4.52
1.49
.88
.19
.II
.93
AygAnn'fIv'd Y"1IId
3.211
1.al,
~K 2."
3.1" 3.1" ~211
lPII
2.1" 2."
~9' ~" ~" ," 2~ 2.0; 3.4'
1160.3 1491.4 1521.9 1511.1 1625.9
CAPITAL STRUCTURE .. of II3IMIl
811.8 831.4
1054.8 ntH
Total De1rlS112.0 mi. Due In 5 Yrs $3s.0mll.
5.5' 5.o, 4.3"
3.1" 4.0'4
~.1' 4.8"
408'
5.1'
IT 1lIb1 $1 12.0 mil.
LT Inter.st $7.5 mI13.6
16.4
110
225
12.6
12.8
13.3
1M
13.6
21 .
100D...-I"'II)
II Tint. eemed: 7.5l1; lolal merest alVeragU: 5.8:1:)
21.1
30.1
11.0
31.0 29.0
3.0
'-9
2f.O Not ... 1I1lnoitn
1.9
233
IV
(27'" cap'Q f.,~h;7.;-h.-iiii+'iT.:-+~o--t-..i'i:iH-.iiii-1h;i~+--"~hiT.+'iT.;+~o+.:==~5i:~---+..c.iii-i
39.9% 39.5%
3U~
38.6IJ. 38." 31.5% ktCGIMTuRn
49.1" 41.9% 41.4\ 43.0' 42.9,
1.4,
2.3, ~O,
lulIn, UncapltaliHd Annuall1!n1a1s $26.2 nil
lOll
1.1'4
U~ N~ ... II Morglo
.4% 1.1'
1.6'
2.0\
fithian
UlbllIty S17.0 mil. iI '01 vs. $12.7 mil.
,4.7
219.0
41.9 130.8
153.6
151.9 164.S 221.1 251.1
144.1
'DO

1Il.0
113.B
51.4
911.0 126.0
14.3
62.9
60.0
PldStocliNone
311.8
128.8 134.9 160. 165.4 189.3 201.6 294.5 293.'
7.4%
8.4% 10.3% 11.4'4
5 ....
2.4"
5.3"4 6,611.
Cl:GImon S1odl19,641,9S3
shs.
8,41, 10~
9.D'4
13.1" 10.2%
2."
.
"
IIARKET CAP: $325 million (Small Clp)
5 ....
1.~ 8.9"
IolMF 3.2'
31'
6.1"
CURRENTPOSmoN
2000
2001 913CM11
NMF
3211
L
12.3
14.0
26.1 f-,."U"S ..=!oE
.=-'
. -,""c-L....-:7"lnd-'h _7"-,'-,T'"_L-,""",---J..L.L.--',L..,7".7"_-'--J- ..-,--,-.-_-L..---="""....
.L..",~30"
.lh-""-, ""'--'--!--",--,,--_-=-+"",,,--,-"'----,"',-- ... ----,.-.",,--""-,-,- .. -'.,--A,--"'-,.".--l
~~~FOl
212.3
dumat products, whi:h iJcU:le buri1gs. poww transnission comDynavest (Appliad Ltd.) 000. 4,800 umpls., 6.550 ddlldrs. otrESS
Other
1~
10.0
10.7 ponunts, &i1 IXM'8f components. ineiIr motlon products, and gen- & drecmn own 9.8% 01 mmmon shanls; NT RuI:f8menI Savings

...

."

u.

."

3',

'"

."
'-'"

'"

caJr'~

CurrentAss8ts
Acc:ts Payable
Deb!. Due

=ntuab.

,2.3,

'3'
3"

8.8"

9.4"

~~:g1~:~

415.0
93.8
_

406:5
75.9
_.

412.5
90.4
--

III'lIIIrnalllenanat l&nd specialty iSms. The compIlny pun:h1S8S


fiorn over 2,500 lDIlpilnits, Ind leis to I YaiBty ~ indu$hs. Appied atso pmwidelllldlnicallupflOlt
.-vi:8s. Opemes 397 BY'

APeJPUed Indus~~
..:!~~~J~giesthwill
11k y report we-__ ~ ...... "&" ..or
e reANNUALRATE& Put
Pat Esrd .... 01 mainder of the
fiscal year.
The reces~~(pIrSlJ
11r-0%
lD.rs:
sian in the industrial economy has caused
"CashAow"
8.0%
8.0%
7.5"
demand to decUne for Applied's Industrial
5.0"
aMcomponents. 1ltls slump. which began afBook Value
recting Applied In the last few quarters of
FIoaI
QlIARTEJlL'SALESlloIll'
Fhl
fiscal ZOOl (year ended June 30th). conllnSlp.30DKJ1 MirJ1 JunJi ~
ues lo hamper results. Both sales and
~'!l'!---tr.rr~~=----;;;;;:;,:-;:rr:;:+.*,'H
earnings
have deteriorated.
espedaUy
1991 344.7 368.6 393.9 384.2 1491.4 when compared to nwnbers recorded dur,.
379.2 371.4 386.6 390,7 1527.9 ing a more favorable economy. The indus2000 380.7 372.6 413.2 405.2 1571.7trial conditions continue to get worse. and
~.5 :.9
:.6
~:.9 there are few signs of an increase in
FIKllI
EAJUMGSPBlSHARE
All
Ful
demand. All told, it is likely for these conV.. r
FiKaI dJtions to persist through fiscal 2002. and
En_
SlIp.3IDK.31".r.31 JUA.30 V.r we expect an over-ZO% year-aver-year
1991 .22.
.35 .41 .40 1.38.earnings decline.
1.
.06 .20 .30 .37
.93 Management has taken steps to help
2DOO .28 .30 .40 .53 1.51 offset the weak market. Although mac.37
.35
'~
,U'O' roeconornic mndit10ns have caused sales to
20022001.36
.25
.25
.21
.
I'
QUARTEU.YDNIlOOSPAlDcdImlnJsh, actions taken to ease the fal
c.~~;;:..;;~--t=M:;."r3;;1'-=J=;hn".38;=---=S=!.P".IO;=---=D0t.3~::,+-y"F:7.-1~should help in a more favorable emnomy.
r
Applied has Initiated strategies to control
fJ97 .107 .107 .107
.12
..... expenses, and has continued development
1191 .12 .12 .12 .12
.43 of its new sales and marketing programs.
1!1fi
.12
.12
.12
.~
2DOO.12
12
12
12
12
48 Th e re Ia U ve Iy new M'-'-'
au enance Am'elca
2001
catalog continues to perform welt and in
AI FISClII'JUI ends JUll8 3OIh.
[ l:1y hnUIIJ
lD)E}lndudes
In miltims, ecIjusilld b
B Prwnary eanmgs tfnIugh '97, diIuB:I there- (e) Next dM::Iend meetng abou1JanulWY15.
it1angibles.. kl

=~

1:~

1~:~

1::~

Irs%

5.5"

g:g~ :]~' ~:~

l!

= ::~

.-"

:,2 :,2 :,2'

aftBt. ExcIIldus nornamng IWns: U. 21; '90. Held ax d;llu ilbwl. Nov8rnber 15ttl. Dl'tidends ion, $3.31IshanL
(32); ~ (66j). NexI.-nngs repoddll8eii11r paid aboli Mill'. 1, June " Sep. 1. DIIC. 1.
o ZCllll. Vibe I..iIe ~
Inc. AI ... restrnd. F..-. IIIIIWI n. aIUined Inn -..rte'i
lD be ......
is P'DIiMI ~
nil PU8USi'R IS NOT RES"PONSIllI lOR NfY ERRO.RS OR CMS90frtS HRf.III. TIIa
iI; sR:Iy'" ~I~.
_
III ~..,
lit ~
ItSdl ..
IlI1la16S
iiiin)' .....
1IBRI'i: II
IrnL Gf IISeII III
Gf ~
1IlJ ....
DI

'*'

Plan owns 8.9%; (9101 pruq). Cham.n and CEO: DaYiI Pugh.
Addr8a: One Applied PIwI, CIrMl"nd, OH. 044115. TII6ephone:
216--426-4000. IntIIrnBt www.lppiedindunilLccm

Octalber,manaF:1
ldgemPoent~uncedl
anothhle ,
cat og.
u
wer l.AJnned. on. w
ch
features
14,000
of the mmpany's fluid
power products. These catalogs, along with
the company's Web site Applied Access.com - should help offset some of the
revenue declines. These initiatives should
also help accelerate growth when demand
returns to more normal levels.
Earnings
should
recover
through
2004-2006. when more favorable emnomic
conditions return. The company has a
strong balance sheet that should permit it
La grow through acqulsJ.tions. Applied also
will be able to payoR' some debt. which
would decrease Its interest expense. A
modest stock-repurchase program should
also contribute to share-net gains.
Applied
industrial
Technologies
shares
do not have particularly attractive
investment
appeal.
Even
will
though managements new initiatives
likely garner higher earnings In a better
economy. Applied stock,. at Its current quotatton. offers below-average appredation
potential over the c:om1ng 3 to 5 years.
M areover, th e Issue Is un tIme Iy.
Evan J. Rosenthal
November 2. 2001
slDct spits.
2001: $65.11 mi-

= ,.........."..
---=....,.
nnwIlin

Calnpany'll Financial $hrlgth


stock's ~rlCII SbIb1litJ
PricII Grvwttl "-nlstnc.
Elminp Pndctabllty

... wry tiJd. _


u.. No pM.
I

o;mQ

II'

ptdUtl

I '.

II:

B+

10
40

60
I I

BISYS GROUP. INC. NDQ.ssys


2 New"'"
3 Ntwli'l,m
1
,,_

THEUIIESS
SAFm

TICHN'CAl
WI.

.10 (IllO

2_

IIRECENT
PRICE

olU)
53 .'89l11IRAOO 29 9(TrOin
: REL\TlVE 1 59
110"", 210 P RAOO.

10.0

12.3

11.2

~9

15.6

a8

21.7

21.1

13~ lU

26.1

32.8

,a3 WJ

Nil

~Vll
YlD

55.8

64.0

n~

4U

Target Price Range


201M 2005 2006
125
100
80

...
Rl!fI.,PlEeSt
2~.1~llrl1l

!i)
~d_~rPSlltllf

PROJE.I!':'NS

I!>tt"

rI"I"III

0--.,.
11.1

,II il' I

4112" 1m.'
"IIIJ

98

ZQI.l

Percent .1.0
105 ah.rwa SO.O

113

:::'1 ~~ ~J

trIIdMI

5<Q~

"
....
-- t-

....

'lHOT.RT1JRN11l1D1

InstilutiClnlll Decisions

1 yr.

15.0

3 yr.

"

""'"

I- 7.5

.u

10.4
138.0

242

1985 1986 1987 1988


.

..

2.99
d.G
d.19

..

.06

..
.

..
.

.~
".OS

..

.14

11

2.32
2.18
.,.ZU ".47
15.1
23.3
.89
1.53

4.34
.37
.2S
.
20

2.48
.. ",
42.1
2.82

4.98
.16
.64
..
.26
2.89
".,.
"EJ:L

U5

6.32
1.11
.M
.

1.2fi
1.17
.87
.,

6.72 10.21 12.01 1( U


1.~9 1.!1
213
UO
1.03 1.23 1.45 1.ID
.
..

H'

.32

.32

.51

.50

.49

3.80
~7
21.'
112

..AS

5.32

6.50
55.'

9.04
, ,

201
1.05

24.1
1.37
_.

23.0

30.9

1.50

1.10

".'J ,.."

RnlllUlI per III'"

CuIIR"'p.d',

enlIlB'"''''''
Di"id.Docl'dpOioh
.10 Clp'lSplnding PM' III
fUG BookValue pIr Ih b
,
'U1I19.
AYgAnn'IP~Kdo
R*tJy. PIERno
AV;AnIlHliV'dYilld

za.15
tl0
110
Hil
.15

15.JO
7 ..
30.0
2.00

63.0

74.5

88.3

136.7

200.5

241.1

319.0

386.4

472.7

57U

Hi

701.8

,0.0"

Ca:'~
lmoentor)'

Receivables

(Avg Cst)

Other

Curren1Ass8ts
~ .. ~ble
....

u...-

Other
Curntn1l.iab.

70.2
fOS.S
-
140.5
319.3
15.1
115.0.1
89.6
219.7

Rtll'eflU88

--

"Cash FIow"

~~:~
Book Vlllua

::
--

Cll>

159.4
146.1

40.3
347.8
13.4

45.9
365.2
16.2

140.2
153.7

1242
140.4

Past

ANNUAL RATES Put


of dllnge pUhl
In....

155.6
163.7

lOOt

20.5%

& svt:S. support mCiethan 15,000 InL a:mpanies and corp. cIIBnb.
Abou1 4,300 ."pIoyaBs. FMR Corp. CIIlIImS 10.0" of sIoc:k; T. ROW8
Prial, 7.8%; oIf. & di"~ 3.8" (10Al1 Prux,~ Clwrnn.. PnJI.. & CEO:
Lynn J. Mangam 1I1c..:DE. Addr.: 150 CkMt RDlId, LII:IB Falls, NJ
07424. Telephone: 973-612-B600. ~eb: www.bisys.cam.

BISYS Group's fiscal ftrst-quarter

Florida-based

re-

insurance

brokerage

lInn

18.~

.32

.41

.4T

.0

.53

.fT

Full
Tur
386A
472.

571.

701.
'50
FilII
Year
.87

1.03
1.23

1.45

2OD2

:n

Cal-

QUARTERlYDIVIIENDSPAm

FilII

.ndar

111.31 JUIl.3D SeaJO Dee,,1

T.r

1197
1198
II!!
20DD
2001

InVeftnBl'l1, and i!sLJriInC8 outsom:ing SOUbons. lis business unill


mxIe: III1tnnmJn Servials (25" 01 z001nwenuesl, IlMtstmenl:
SVCL (51"1, and Insurance & EduclIbon Svcs. (24"). Admini5lBn
and distrillli!s
men thafl 120 lamiliBs of mutual funds. pJVides
c:hect inBging soIu1ixts, distr. annuilies & lie N. pnxiI. Acqul1ld:

Un.
1EI'Mo'.
17.s% 14.5"
2S.s'4
11.5"
23.~
18.5:'

lIIIAlITBllYRE'IBIIES!I-tjA

2T

J-;;=:;;,:;-;===:':-;:c-::-:t:::-:::=c;:;===,=,,::--':;======:':::-=;;'-:=====:=";;:=-J
BUSINESS: SISYS Gmup is a shgle-soun:2 Regratr of tlanlng,
UP! (61tH); II!SLI".Exchange (SI01); anc1 Bomn rn5fl. (oW1j. Prods.

Est'd "11-'01

endar Sea.30 Dec.31 ... ,.31 Jun.30


1918
91.5
91.4 99.0 104.5
11!!
101.9 112.0 121.3 137.5
2000
132.3 138.0 145.7 155.4
_
161.4 168.3 177.4 194.7
2002
196.5 205
1lI
230.5
CIJ.
EARfM!GS PER SHARE ...
.ndar. Sep.30 DK.31 l.r.31
JunJO
'III
.16
.19
.25
.n
11!!
.19
.22
.29
.33
2000
.22
.26
.35
.010

U9
.5T
.43
.

J50 RIMIIUII($nII)
1450
TotIllhbt SJQO.Omil. Due ... 5 Trs 300.0
2O.!~ 22.6% 22.9~ 16.!~ 15.0~ 25.1~ 25J~ 23.0'4 25.0~ 2S.6~ 2T.O% 21.'" I ........
, M....
31-"1
LT Debt $300.0 mill.
LT IntItIWSlS12.0 miD.
3.0
3.7
3.8
3.5
5.1
10.0
11.8
14.8
23.6
30.7
42.8
31.5 DIpl'KI~ (.... )
75.0
(35% d Cap"Q
d18.8 d13.8
16.7
13.8
11.9
32.5
44.1
47.3
57.4
101
87.1
110 NIlProIi.($niII)
ua
..
..
.. 25.4~ 50.8'
38.1~ 39.7~ 40.0'
40.0' 39.5~ 37.1~ 3J.O% IncorHlu RaIl
.Jt.5%
Leasn, UncapttaliDd:
Annual ren1a1B$24.6 mil
NhF NMF 18.9\ 10."
6.0\
13.1% 13.8' 12.2'4 12.1\ 12.3% 12.5' 11'" NI1Pruft1I.
15.1"
Pension liability None
d2.7
3.1
~22
3J
5.3
~U
87.'
97.8
221
99.' 194.1
115 W_oCop'lllnlj
71.1
PIlI Stock None
50.6
6.2
.1
27.4

1.7
1.6
1.6

.
300.4
JDO LongTIIm DIbI (s..)
.uo
dB.6
13.6
70.1
84.8
114.6
143.2 191.9 238.3 288.5 361.6 528.0
HO Shr. Eauttr(Nj"
1150
Canunon Stock 58,862.643 shs. (65% ofCap'Q l-i'ii.H---i~f.~+"""~I-i~+~~~'ii-+'''''H..;;;;-t."ii7.i't-;:,cii'-h~;.f,,,,,,=,,O'.'~~.---+,;,:;cj
HltfF NKf Z3.n. 12.71Ii 10."\ 22"''' 21.8' 19.J' 19.9' 19.410 10.S' 1J.OS Ribn an ToWC&p1
1('"
as rJ '0131/01
IIARKET CAP: $3.2 b1llon (liid Cap)
.NMF 23.8~ 162~ 10.4~ 227~ 210~ 19.8~ 19J~ 19."
1'.'~
lU"
Robn .. Sh,.E.....

NMF 23.8% 16.2% 10.-47. 22..1% 23.0% 19.8"


19.9"
19.4% 16.6% 1tO% Rl1a!ntd tD Com Eq
11.0"
CURRENT PosrnON
ZOOD 2001 1If3CM)1

Hi All DiY"dI tD NIl PrvI


Hil
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of ~1

2.92
.68
.57

1.10

NO CASH DMDENDS
8EINGPAJD

(AJ Fi!c8I.".
ends June 30th.
fOIIndillil N8Ill: earnilgs report due IiIt8 Jan.
i(D) Indudes
intang~
(8 Primary earnings lfJrougIr 1991,dU!d (C} InmBDtIS, mpsl.ed b spit.
$9.02Jslwll.
t~.
Ezdudes rOlweaurilg bss. '02, 6;.
2001 earnings do not SlmI 10 total due 10
o 21111.VIlle UIt PIlbI5tli1lI. InL ~ rdI\ rsned. flClllllllllltrill is lIiled ". 5CIIIIte5. tIIIlieIIlSllObe niItIIe .. & p:vwiItlI ........
THr~CSfl)l
Rf.~[lORNl'f[RRORSOROUISSIONSH[RE
af .. ..,. be ItfIIlldIad mDIIl ..,
CI
il ., ..... dIOIIrit CI cte

...-m

'01:

Company's
F .... 1IdI1 stradgth
BIDet'sfJricI Stl:blily
priQ GrowUIPtinllltllnCII
Earnings PrMldabllilJ

rniID'I,

--*es af lIlY UML

1IIispllt*:aDlissh:tyb!llbstrDr's_.~i-aJnlllI~.IWp.t
I:S!ll b !jIftrIIi'Ig CI .....
III)'
Ib:tIril: pIIbIicaIilft.

...-s

$527

SInia

CI

pICId&I:1

".

II:

Bot+
65
90
55
II'.

BARNES GROUP NYSE.B

.
lIIEUNESS
SAfETY

4-..""."
3,.........

IETA

High:

10.5

12.7

12.0

low:

B.O

B.'

B.'

LEGENDS
6.0 I -C.Sl .....

j.b.:,

TECHNiCAl 3....".".,

-.... ..

....,.

Institutional Decisions

:::.

ilcbleJ

"'.,.

10'01

1Q2.1

"

33

32

8213

22
8306

0256

".-

."

.....

Pen;.nt

34.0

30.0

22.4

19"

21,3

15.3

12.0

Tarv-t Price R.nge


2004 200. 2006

24.8
17.8

80

.lIar

..
..

......

'"

Pension lIablMty None


PM Stock None

(47%dCap'Q

Common Stock 18,481,546 shs.

".. .... ,-,

""'RKET CAP: 1375 million (Small Cap)


CURRENT POSrrlO,.

ca",11lilLi
.......

43.6

Receivab18s
~entory (UFO)

Ct.rnent Ass8Is
Acds Payable
09bt Due
0Ih0<
Cl,lITent L..i:ab.
ANNUAL RATES

"-(p<'"

37.9
115.8

21.'

25.>

2192

241.3

57.5

59.8

12.1
46.4
116.0
Put
IIY,.,

S.1os
''Cash Flow"
Eami"lgs
Oivi:lends
Book Value

23.3

107.4
88.'

91.7
66A
17.5

2.0%
6.0%
7.0'1.
5.5'1.

4.0%

81.4

261.1
70.5

3.>

6.>

12e.8

10.0%

"11.31 Jun.30
.56
.61
.50

SeD
.52
.45

154.9
"'.8
168.0
l'U
20fI

200
fARDIGS PfR SHARE ~

.49
.36

1995
30.116
275
1.<0
.53
1.82
B.54
19.71
B.7
.65
3.9'1
592.5
12.8%
26J

m
39'%

......

85.3
70.0
128J
15.'%
21.3%
13.2'4
38%

199.97
29.74
296
1.83
.60
1.69
7.85
20.01
10.0
.83
3.7'
585.0
13,81
26.6
32.B
31.71
5.5'1.
109.5
70.0
1571
15.4'
20.71
111%
3'%

31.81
3.<0
1.96
.65
1.66
8.97
20.1'
13.1
.76
25%
8427

14.61
28.1
4/1.'
37.31
6.3'4
113.1
60.0
lBl1~
17.6'
224\
15.1"
33%

.49

Dedi

.36

.,

.08

,.

20

...

",. ,..,

1J'.
' J'.
5J'.

10f

-19.9

.......
,...

55.1
4"
2002
~VAl.IIEUNEPIIB ~C.
1998~99
2000
2001
39.17 '180
... 30
33.02
32.83
3.84
175
~25 C... FIow" ....
3.16
3.14
I.go
&nIIp,., Ih A
... /1
2~'
.79
.N Div'ds Dtc:I'd,.. 111..
.68
.75
1.].4
1.43
1.80 CIp'1
1.44
1~
10.82 1US 11.. Bout. YIIuI PM'. c
9.51
18.01 IUS
19.84
19.M
lL'" ICcnnKlII5ft1 OlItifi U
A'll
PIE.....
92
13.7
14>
.71
.61
RII:Ifir.P/ERdo
.B2
",ya Ann' Djy'd Y'1IkI
2.4%
3.6% 4.5%

U,

...

...

6511
622.'
14.8,
121%
28.4
30.6
28.6
'21
33.0l\
37.5'
6.5'4
4.6'
1116~ 11132
51.0 140.0
188.7 180.6
9.8'1.
18.4'
22.%
15.8'
1S.Of.
7.8"
51%
33%

740.0
13.4'
35~
35.7
26.''1

Sf>oo"", ....

-=--:::

4.8,

114.5
230.0
201.3
9.8%
17.7'
10.4%
41%

175
'1""
4/1./1

a'

""

...
3.'"

II' SalK 11niII)


11'" 0
4J./I O~lln.1
w N"""'11 (looiI1

11.""
U'I

110

1.f.0I

Inane TII. RD

w_.

N.. ""'I1 .....


Cap11lnl)
125

no

205
LO'I

An.,

51.15
5.30
1J/I

.85
1.1.
1175
,UO
110
.J/I

3.%

.36
1~""

'10
41'

a""

~'"
'75

~.~:=Id)
,.".
3J/I

.15
9,'" Rn.m lilt TDIII Cap'
'1S'I R_ ...SI.-. E.it.
RIIaiMd 1tI Cen Eq
AI DiY'd, ~ hi Praf

.'" .'"
53lIO

""

lIS

'-'"

lU'I

l,",

41'1

BUSINESS: Barnes Group Inc. consists of three businesses: AssoconmefCial airlines (18"'). Fgn. ops.: 25% rI'OO sales. Has abou1
ciated Spnng manufacltns pn!IDsion s~s
and metal pwls used 5,600 snpl 'DOdepr. rate: 9.0%. Ownership: Offs., on. & 8.-nes
II durable goods (43' of 2000 saiBs); Barnes (forrr-ly BllWl'IlIiIn) Itmiy, 11.5%; FIlI8I Bank, 30.5% Qne!. ESOP, 18.5'4); Gamco InDiDiIU!Xln, a leader i1 the inIit of indusU!ll maintenance, repM,
vesbs, 6.0% (3101 Proxy). CInnn.: Thomas O. B~es; PIes. &
and opemng supplies (MRO) (39%); Banm AIIrospac:e produQlS CEO: Edmund M. Carpentl!ll'. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 123 "IIi! St, BrisbI,
1Iraaf1. alfIlpooents and providal averhauillftd I1Ipai" BVices lor CT 06010. Tel: 860-583-7070. Intlll1let www.t.nesgroupi1c..com.

64.0
138.4

Ban1es Group continued to feel the ill


effects of a sluggish domestic ec0l10my in the third 9uarter. Sales were on
par with last year 5 results, but earnings
.
were down by nearly 40% on a year-overyear basis. Weak.market conditions in the
4.""
U.S. have had a negative impact on the
8.5"
company's AssocIated Spring and D1strtbuFull
tion branches, but the company had been
Y.. ,
ietUng by with saUd performance from lis
651.2
eraspace dJvision. In the aftennath of the
622.4 September attacks. however, it is likely
7<0.0
that an already shaky eronomy will
715
weaken further, and aerospace sales may
lIS
begin to feel the crunch in the comJng
Full
months.
We are expecting more of the sam.e in
2.07 the final quarter
of 2001. Although the
1.46 company's recent efforts to amsoUdate in1.90
frastrueture and reduce costs will offset
1.4/1
some of the top-line erosion, the underly1.~
fng market condJtlons are not favorable.
Full
Demand In its three major sectors will
YP'
likely remfdn in the doldIUJIlSthrough the
.65 end of 2001 and, we are forecasting. well
.69 into the next calendar year. Further. It Is
.75
OUT
belief that in the near tenn, the ter.79

..

,,

If""",."..........

~port diHl rnichllln..

'" Tot. RETURllIID,

... .....

disruptions
In the conunerdal aircraft
market and place a large roadblock in
front of the previously hJghflying segment.
With that in mind we have lowered our estlmate fOT the fourth quarter to $0.35.
The Curtis acquisition
of 2000 could
not have come at a better time. Curtis
dist.r:lbutes maintenance, repair, and operating SUppliESand is responsible for the
majority of the Distribution segment's
sales growth. Integration of this move is
well ahead of schedule. and these gains.
have helped. cover some of the damage
brought on by the economic downturn.
Also auguring well for the company's longtenn outlook is the fact that it has been
generating soUd free cash now in the down
eyde, and during the recently completed
quarter bought back over 150,000 shares.
We do not reco:nunend these shares
for price perfonnance
over the coming 6 to 12 months. Further, at its current quotation we believe it to be fully
priced. However. Barnes shares provide a
healthy dividend yield. and the future payout appears likely to be well covered by
prospective ean'lings .
Erik AI. Manning
NoYfY71ber 2, 2001

.35
.30
.45
.45
.45
Ql!AR7ERLY DMlENOS PAIl"
Co!end., - ..>I J .30 "0.30
D,d\
1197
.167
.15
.166
.167
1898
.167 .167
.18
.18
1199
.19
.18
.19
.18
.19
.20
2100
.20
.20
rorist attacks will certainly cause large
.21)
.20
2001
.20
(A'......,.
.............
h 1996, ....
;
J~. 208>. G... .,
"ll .... , I. 00, $155.' ";L,
djulel:l. Exdudes 11ClMlCUI". gaiJ (bsJeS): '85,
about D8c:. 28th. Appml(inate dividend pa,...
$8.37Ish.
(2(): '87, (9t!); '89, (23j); '92, ($2..19);'93, 4; I1I8ntdates: 10th rI Mar., June, Sept., Dec.
In milliDns,adjusted b mck spit
'98, (38). Next _llllngs
a 21111. YI'be ... ~

... ......
.....
... r-6

1991
1992
1993
1994
28.89 28.34 26.60 29.51
211
1.<6
1.57
2.28
.81
.31
.23
tD1
.43
1.03
1.18
1.65
.8'
7.49
5.01
5.55
'.86
1!l.b7 lB." 19l!1
15."
12J
33.'
45' IOJ
.B2
2.116 2.66
.71
4,4% 4.41
'1%
"%
535.7 529.1 502.3
5691
11.4% 5.9'
7.1% 10.61
23.2
23.1
23.7
23.7
15.9
5.5
20.3
~.8'
27.9' 47.8'
40.1'
3.0% 1.0l\
~%
3.6%
103.0
93. 87.0
BS>
78.4
70.0
70.0
70.0
138.8
91.8 107.1
83.'
8.9% 5.2% 3.8'1. 12.4%
11.5% 5.9'
4.8% 19.01
S>%
N"F
N"F 10AI
54%
45%
N"F
N"F

24

12
10

...

.....,.,.

12.0%

156.3
154.0
190.5
186.5

.,

..

. ..

..

,.""

15.0'1.
8.5"

169.2
156.3
168.5
199.5
210

.51
.39
.45

..

-,

. Put
Est'd ... 00
5"'4.0%
0.'"

QUAIl7ERLY SALS (loR)


C
.-,
... ,.31 J .3I s;;".JO 00<>1
168.8
162.2
173.0
199.2
205

...

"1'1111

111

""''''11 I"

4.0
2.0

LelSn, UncaptblllZedAnnual rentals $7.5 mil

-.-

........

I,,,

30
40
32

- -- - --

'.0

.....

30.4

ressG'l

..

'"

n.

1998
1191
2100
2001
2902

20.7
11.7

eo

.., ." .., ., ..,

..

12.0

111"1

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
28.09
19.84
22.32 22.96 28.16
28.83
1.82
201
1.55
1.62
2.01
W
.7,
.B6
1.02
1.02
.87
.41
.33
.38
.28
.<0
1.18
.!18
1.38
1.29
1.00
6.18
6.42
5.89
'.78
19.34 19.15
1618
16.63 lB." 18.:l!I
13.3
10.0
101
11.1
11.7
.84
./8
.7.
.83
~ t.01
5.1%
3.1% 31%
3.5%
3.7'
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE u 01 !ti3Olll1
Total Debt $232.0 mi. On tn 5 Yrs $72.0 mil.
LT tlI:bt $228. 1 mil.
LT 1n1.res1 $16.4 ml.
(l T merest earned: 3.5x; total interest coverage:
3.411)
153'1 of cap~

2001

15.3

9.B

P 5h

2002

13.3

~4B~~SlII11lP

~d

PROJECTIONS

Ann' TDbI
GaIn
Rekrm
3. (+7~~ f8"
20
fNI
.. "
Insider Declaklln&
J J
DJF.".
004001
010
o 011 0 010 0 2 8
D 0 4 0 0 002
1

1898
1989

11.0
10.0

.15 (1.Dll-MmIt)

ZQ04.Oi

20.481~m14.0(:::: lll)flJ%0.81 ~ 3.9%

I~ECEH1
PRICE

OiYi:Iend nticrtem1ent plan available. (C) In-

Ir....
I~

..,-

'99

.... ......

891. do not 111m die lD rounding.


b p.... -.iIImIII WIItIIIlies rI ~ UId.

he. AI ~
le5eI'nIIII. r.s.l mmilll IS atIlIined fJam tIUtes ~
ID be rllliltR ..
IHEPUBUSHt.Rr5N)lRE PONSIBlEQRANYERRQ.RSOROMIS!WQNStlERlIN.~&slIdyb~s-.~tilLi1."'lI'll!.
1Ii1-r ..

~~JtniI."""i1I11f""---=III".a_.

Com'.:1"
.... nc.. ,.......
Stock'
rial StablltJ

......

W'IIi:z'-fIIlIIIICL

75
60

Pm Growth PIIrsiIItenQ
Earnings P~1ty
It.".

60
:11:

II',

BASSETT FURN. NDQ-BSET

1l)\IRElATM 0 66 IXV'D 5.7%


14 ~m 9 2 (Trails:
IHlfiill: 16.1 11 RAm.
YLD

IRECElIT
IPRICE
21.2
16.9

Pf

35.2
19.5

.... 0
27.5

37.3
25.3

30.3
20.1

28.3
21.6

31.5
21.9

34.0
15.3

T8rg11t Price

172
11.1

25.0
15.4

Range

2003 2004 2005

'"
40
32

11I11111l11~.

'"

'-

.. ....
,

---

24
20

"

"."

12

I.
Insld.r Dee_Ions
.,.
~.
IIIl11

D J

F III A

.,

Declaions

C.

1QZM:

57~

20

;U

'

'.0

P.rcent

25 ..h.r..
51~ traded

2.48

1.96
.43

2.22
1.61

.n

1.24
.64

2.05
1.41
.56

.89

15.21

15.82

16.68

1.82

1~.
yr.
Syr.

-19.1

"i:'_
15.4

-42.11

-Xl.5

25.2

w.e

1.80
1.23

1.17

.61
~
17.17

.W

.93
121
1.06
1.35
3.~
2E'
25'
32'
CAPITAL STRUCTURE u of 5IZ71OO

2.3,

1.07

,.
14.4
592

.63

14."

14.'"

.....

1-42

19.1

16.8

.95
2.8~
401.6

B6
2.4'
413.-4

1.18
221
503.8

1.10 1.09 1.10 1.16


2.71 3.D"
3.3" 3.8"
510.6 ~.8
450.7 446.9

112.6

155.8

168.4

163.6

1-4..8

1..22
5.4'

1.02
U"
435.7

162.9

18.99

16.3

1.7l

3.94

2Z.29
......

20.01

20.56

21.15

".IlO

,,.,

"...

11.5

zu.1

'.so

1.IIl
1118

24."

"M

202

14.5

1.05
2.8"
391.6

.83
3.71
394.4

__

99.0

19.4

fIG

1oIlf

' ...
,.

CIp'~diII9"""

'.JO

a."

BookYltul......

0..........

"'1119

Avg Ann' PfE KIlO

R_P/ERno
AvgAlln'llv'dYJeld
310
J8S s.I.,..) A
5.4%
5.1\
7.8"
72%
6.6%
52%
3.0%
2.3%
5..3%
5.3%
.tn
5.R a
7.9
7.9
8.
9.9
88
8.6
6.3
62
8.9
U
... ,
.... ~(""III)
2lW
18.5 26.7 25.9 25.0 22.9 18.5 17.1 18.6 16.0 18.1 'BI No! ""It IInoiII
25.91> 252% 29.8% 29.1% 282% 2-4.0% 17111 3.1% 21.9% 31.5'4 .12.01 .3U" MCOIIITuRD
4.6%
4.6\
~.6"
5.1'4
4.9%
4.711
4.1%
3.B%
4.711
4.6%
4.~
.t.I% Ntl.Proltllllr~
164.3

152.6

m~

..
..
..
..
..
..
18.0
288.9 2952 296.9 291> 2612 26<9 255.'

8.2'11 71%
8./11 72'

9.8%
9."

9.0'9.~

8.s%
.~

7.7"
7.7,

6.3'"

6.4%

5.0%
.... %

4.6%
.t6%

3.9%

2.7"1.
57lr.

.8%

5127/00

905

4.2'4
.QI

..

169.5

..
..
244.3 255.1
(81% of Cap'Q

,.

.74

,4,4,

14.40

118

IlARKET CAP: 5175 milliDIIISrnall cap)

CURRENT PO$JTION

.71

.>3
21.88

14."

.43

20.96

5."
".1

(19%c1Cap'Q

.69

19.99

17.72

PIInsion L1ablllJ None

Ca~~

.56

16.89

(Total i'rtlHsI.."ed: 7.0ll)

Common Stock 11,772,8OOshs.

.63

17.29

Tatal Debt $50.5 millon alliin. 5 JTI; S50.5 million


lT Debt $50.5 m.aorl LTInres1 $4.0 milion

345

491

6."

....
2fI
tft

6.5"
6.5'

7.0"
7.0'

6.6%
7.0'

1.6'1.

3.1%

3.1%

7.0%
,~

56!l

56%

165

...

1Dl1 WorU'l; Cap'I ($mil)

.... Long.T .... 1lobI11noiI1


77. 9Il''-_llnoiIi
6.ft RItUm on Total Clip'!
7.0% R_ '" S1w. Eo...,
3..5% Relalned to Crn Eq
5eS ADDtY'dt He! Pn:I

1<7.
11.5

.75
4""
.6.5%
lI.S
22.'
.3f.II

"'n
""

'I.'
2..
7.ft
80%
to!%.
US

BUSINESS: Bass8tl FurnUli 1n:lustJies, kK:. I'l'IInufatUes II wide


rang. of bel:lrton, di'1ing rocm, and Iimg 100m milne.
Also
rTllltes varOls 11181 cI OCCBSwl chao, IIbBs, Wli unils. and
146.8
upholsts'8d fwnilln. The CI:ITlP8"Y opentes14 plants in 5 Utes.
21.3
Prodllds BI1IIOkIto deallrs through corrmiaionl salll! .. presen _ tlttwes, and 52 Icansed stores. 1999 deprllCiali:In me: 3.7"4. Hils

abOUt 4,700 ~;
2,400 slllnholders. Drficw1 & Doctors
own 7.31lf. d CCIIWTlOn,ucb1iog 7.5% hekl b erTlIbyee retilIment L.azMI FMeS, 9.0'4; DimllnslOl'\l.l Fund, 5.4%; RDycII & MIOC., 5.~
(3100 PrtlX)').
ChBilniiln: PaulFubl. CEO: Rot.1 SpimBn, Jr. Inc.: VA. Addr.ss: 245 "ail St., BasstII., VA 24055. relephone: S4O-629-fJOOO. 1ntBrn8l www.bBsMttfurnilln.com

!UUrnlhortture" r third-quarter
~ .-'''fi<'''.e
s
0
our expectaANNUAL
RAnS PQI.
Pat Esl'd'I7W tions. The oompany recorded share profits
n...
........
of $0.37, a nickel less than we e~led,
Seles
0.5"4
-1.0%
5.0"
~r-''CashFIow"
0.5%
.... 0%
8.5"
but still
a penny above the year-ago
E.milgs
1.0"4
-5.0%
7.~
quarter. That was,
In part, due to sales
Divi:lends
1.s%
3.0%
.5"
_ V_
2.0%
<U;"
~~
growth of 3% (5%, pro fonna for dlvest!_
, lures). Management attributed
the lowery~
QUARTfRLlSALES(SIIIIJA
I"tKaI than-expected" profit Lo increased materials
E,- Feb.28"1131 Aug.31Now. Y_r costs and lowered plant emdencJes. One
t!l97 1~.9 113.2 11~3 1116 4469 bright spot In the quarter,
though, was
t!llll
96.4 96.3 96.1 102.8 397.6 that
losses
at
The
Laddln
Group
1191 99.9 103.7 88.' 102.1
391.4 (I1.G.-Bassett owns 51%), B retall operat!on, are shrinking.
Fac:.I
EARNIHGSPERSHARE".
Full We have cut our 6sca.I 2000 and 2001
F,b.28 "IY 31 Aug.J1 ModO FIacIII earnings
esdmates (year ends November
H:.... +~;:-::::;;r~iir..:::""+_y'<u~'H
30th). Our share-net estlmate for 2000 has
1917 .26 .I1
.40 .38 1.31 been reduced
by eight cents. to $ 1.52,
,.
.33
.38
.2B
.43 1.42 since the current cost and efficiency diffi1999 .34 .40 .36 .39 1.49 culties will likely amtlnue into the rourth
.39
.38
.11
JI
1.52
Addl tiona ny. we red uced our 2001
2Iltt
M
.",
.",
,43
US
quarter.
C1UARTERl.TDMJEllJSPAIIC estimate by a dime. mainly as a result of
!..
''',industry conditions. Still. Bassett should
,C,.'." "I J .30 __ ~",
Ir.... un -,,-............
.'
be able to cut c.osts by way of recently an,.
.20 .21)
.20 .20
.80 nOWlCed headcount reductions. And we
1197
.4l1'
.20
.20
.20
1.110 expect TLG to be modestly profitable next
1191
.2ll
,.
.20 .20
.20 .20
.20 .20.80
.20
.80 year. d ue to t h e In crees ed management
ZIIIQ
.20 .20 .20
fOCLLS and posJtlve recent trends.

Long-term prospects are not excalfitingf.


boone-h
The company pays out a ut
0 its
earnings as dividends. WhUe this provides
r
IOC
a healthy dlvld end . It limits Bassett' s
growth potential. since the oompany is left
with 1Imlted func:ls for .-........t"h.
Also, as
~ .......~.
Bassett Is a small player In the highly
competitive
furniture
Industry,
Its effldency
levels and pricing
power
are
restt1cted.
All told. we th1nk such ractors
will 1Imlt Bassetts
sales and earnings
growth prospects over the next 3 to 5

ReOlliYables
~
(UFO)
Current
As!IBIs
Accts Payable
D9bl Dull

g:nt

Liab.

5.7
&U

.5
70.8

lli ~:~~1
143.7"'13r.!
202
30.1
__
:::~

__
:::

~~

~~~..

""'U-"'J "''''

= ~~::~~ ::4 ::
1:

;JI'='

2.0

1.72

15."
".,. ".1'
"'" "'"
9.7 11.
11.' 15.8 ".,

P1d .....

,.

26.11 26.79 30.60 29.89 30.2B

14..32

'JIo T01. RETURN MID

4.0

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

25.56

f---+---+-;-f---------+--------"-'-'-'-'-.c,,------+----+--+--+

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

InsUlutio1ll1

002000001
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

lAI

W~...

not recommend Bassett .hues


at this time. Given that CUITent dlffieultles are likely to rontlnue through the
next quarter, investors
should wait until a
more clear. favorable picture develops. Out
to 2003-2005, we don t expect BSETs PIE
ratio. which is now below its historical
level. to expand much because the rompany has sold off most of its once-sizable investment portfolio (to repurchase shares)
and now has $50 mllllon in net debt. As a
result of our modest sales and earnings
growth proJections, high-yielding
BSET Is
0 nJ y an average sel'
ecUon lor total return.
Andrew T Berger
October 13. 2000

BbouI. Msrd16th, June 5th, Sept. 1st Dee. 1s1.\~ompalrY'l FlnlnQlI Stnngdl
(D) In milionl, .tjust8d for nxt spRta.
StDct', PrlcII
(E) A spedal dividend of $.20 was pai:! dLOlg
PIb Gnrwttl PIIl"UIl1Ince
the 191qu.ftIr d 1997.
E.mfngs Pl"Idictabllly
rtliMR ... & f"IIidaI .....
-.ml'llies d ... , U1d.
THEPl8USH[RlSlfJlRl~l[tORNrt[RRORSOROMS.5IOMSH[R[
... 1biI.~i5~b~s~.-~inlllMlllWl.No~

,
",
: II:
d i. ..., be n:JIftIllICed. *RI II hmrnIM ir In)' JIIIed. .....
II dhl:r lann. IIlII6Iid blflllRllin!lllll
~
my pi'IIllIIlI IIIIeMric FJrlI**n, SIIlIIO: II podlI1.
Fs:aI Y8llI" ends Novwnt8 3OIh.
"96, (12); '97, ($U16t, '98, ~);
Q1 '00, ~).
B Ba3ed CIfI diluB:l shlll'8l, II\WlIge.....
NexI earnings I1!part dUll late Nciwmblll.
prU tI '97. ExclJcIes I'lOIII'8CWring gansl
(CI Nm:l: dWd meeting about Nov. 1ttl. Goes
(bsseI): '90, (9Elf:t. "9', 1C; '92,~; '94, (4f); u.-dJv. abou1 f.tIv. 1~. Oiv'd pa)llT'lef'll detes
o 1llJQ, \'ale ... I'ubisIriraa. Inc. AI ~
~.
Fidull IIIIlItRII & ota-.ed IrtwII 5OI.fte5 ~
to lie

S1abI'"

B+
60
10
80
II,.

BIORAD LABS 'A' ASE-BKlA I

Nil

High;
L

15.~
8.3

18.~
11.1

LEGENDS
1.5 I ~C'511 rar-

14.3
10.6

11.9
6.7

195
6.8

28.4
16.6

37.0
24.0

33.5
23.4

34.1
19.5

29.0
18.9

34.0
21.0

Target Price Ranu-

64.0
29.8

20Q,t

2005

......

2006

100

p 111

'""

t." ...... 'lI"

2<
20

I'

'I'"

12

...~.

Institutional D.eisions
.QJIII
laJ.1
ZCl2.,
18
28
29
18
1S
17
48S8 51H
5233

1985 1986 1987 1988


9~7 11.19 14.04 11.43 20.~
.83
1.13 1.39 1.56
.58
.89
.56
.63
.83
.44

24.39
1.79
.91

.52
.7'
2.79 3.83
10.70 11.3
".0

1I.3

1.22

1.44

,,05
.80
522
'.42
11.30 11Al
15.3
22.'
,.50
1.27

CAPrTAL. STRUCTURE
TolIl Debt $2".3mll.
LTDebt$191.3mll.
(Totailltlilre!d. CCNerage:
leases,

Unc:apltaiad

Pension Uabllity
ptd Stock None

1.16
5.96
1.55
,,.
E7

..

..

plin

CURRENTPOSmoN

IlIIl.LI
GashAssets
Receivables
~n1ory (Avg Cst)

17.1
193.9
'~{

14.0
1822
1ffi

378.7
64.7

369.1

Pa~bkl

Debt Due
Other
CurT8nt Uab.

202:5

22.0
115.8

~ 18.1
189.3

Cuml'lJl:Assrlb

ANNUAL RATES PIISI:


arc:l'lrlUlU-'"
1'Yn.
Sal8s
8.5%
''CashFIow"
9.5%

EBmilgs

5.0%

Divi::l8llds
Boc* Value

11.5"

32.3
186.4

420.0
67.8

63.0

e.o%

7.S"

3.0%
-

13.CIJ'
NIl

11.0""

9.5"
Full

r..r
441.9
549.4
725.9

IU
Full
Y.,
1.118

.:rn

.2'

.2

.25

.38

119

2001
2DOI

.70
.60

.94
.75

.07
.45

.14
.511

i8J

c...

QUARTERLYONIJEMJ$PAIJ
IIlr.)1 Jun.30 SeD.3D

::

121
9.16
lL<I:>

4/lE
2..2

..

.11
10.68
1m
10.0
.66

..

Ut
Fun

Dec.31 Yur

NOCASH
DIVIDENDS
BElNG PAlO

2001

lie"'"

..

..

34.31
3.19
1.64
..

1.90
15.83
'''''
16.5
95

..

35.46
3.63
1.98
..

1.70
11.20.

w,.
13.2
.69

..

0418.8 0426.9 4041.9


104.6\ 12.0% 11.8\
17."
19.5 21.0
31.0 201
1 .3
25.0' 27.8% 29.0%
7.4% 4.~
5.5"
119.4 126.6 1~8.2
5.7
39.0 42.3
183.5 196.7 214.3
16.'
8.S'
9.7%
'6E% 10.3% 11.3%
15.91 10.31 11.3"
..
..
-.

44.04 58.fT
3.104 4.73
.97
1..29

2.19
17.64
1,...
252
1.44

..

CLOG rT.58 s.l:IIP1fIll


5.35
4..15~Cuh~pII'lh
1.15
130 Eamin;spII'lb"
HQ

2.52
U5
19.60 %150
1l."
50
20.1 .........
1.31
~

..

--

11.15
W
130

HI Div'd.DecI'd....

3.fO 1""Il1SpondOlgpo'lII
14,75 BodlYaJuepwlh
I
............. "'g
_.""".',,.,.....
R_
PIER'"

.""".ll1Wdr"",

50.4
725.9
775
N5 Wl115naJ
11.0% 15.2\ 14.0% 11.1% 0
11.5
43.3
3l.D
:u.I IMprIddGn(W'
11.7
'5.7
35.~
2I.~ N..... 1111".n
28.6% 33.6% 17.0% 37.Of' InCDftll Tu Rait
2.1"
~
t",
1"" NI1Pnlfttl!llrglll
176.2 180.4
115
110 WDfkingClp'(lnlP)
239.2 203.4
200
1. LonSlTIfIIt
DIbI. (lnII)
220.1 2404.6 ZIO
310 StIr.
2.9%
4.1"
.. ~
7.~ RlUllonTOlIICIp'J
5.3% 6.'~ 11.5l1
9.0% R.... 0II51o.EoUitY
S.J%
6.41 fl.'"
1.1" RmlnedcC_Eq
..
..
N.
Hi AI Dh'dllo NIt Prvf

Hi

.~
__

,.l>
f7.~
f.l5
/(i

115
110%
3to
40.~
Xo,;
4.1"
240
150
420
l~
l'"
19
Nfl

~==-;;;:'=-:-c7:==":=;::':::=:::':-::=::':==--'-::::=!:==';,:-;0:2=="=--;;;;;===~=i
BUSINESS: Bi:l-Rad LatxnlOliBS manurBcllfts and sells products
conduetDr induAies (n'). Foreign _.,
152'1 0( toeal m "00. RID:
used n thrBe baaness segrTl9nts: lie Scillnces products are used
sepante and lnalym a;m~ cheri:aIs (37% of '00 sales),
Clinical DilgnDSb ~uces
'mt kits .nd equipment umd'" dilgnosing .nd rTIXIitmg diml.!l8S (56%), and An.iIlyti::al Irmumenb
manuladU18S prodll:ls used far ntaeardt 11the chemal
and selTi-

9.4% elf saleS; depree. me: 17.0%. HQ appmx. 3.eoo ~.,


965
stDckhctiers. Oft'. & d ... awn 18.7%ri A shns, B7" ot 8 shaes;
D. and A. Setrwartz., 16.3% at A sin.; PrivR! c.p. "811. 11..9%.
(oW1 proxy). PnIS. & CEO: D.vi:! Schwartz. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 1000
Alred Nobel OrNe, Hlwcules. CA94547.Tel: 51Q-724-7lXX1.

sdence
products
is driving
profit
growth at Blo-Rad Labs. The company
posted third-quarter earn1ngs of 57 cents a
share. a 130%:lwnp from last year's tally
and nearly 80% above our estimate of 32
cents. [n the period. sales of llfe-sdence
products
were up nearly 30%, fueling a
five-fold increase in segment profits (to
$10.8 million). The advance, in large part.
reflects continued strong demand for BtoRad's BSE r'mad cow disease"') tests. The
market leader in Europe (wJth a 60%-plus
share of an approximately $I 00 million
market). Blo-Rad has seen an upUck In
BSE test :s.alesof late, as beef consumption
has risen with consumer confidence in the
region.
We've raised our ZOOZean1lngs forecast by $0.50 a share (to $2.30) to refleet Bio-Rad's recently
inked deal
with the Japanese govenunent,. as well
as reduced concerns about competition in
the European market. Blo-Rad recently
signed an exclusive-provideragreement for
ESE lesllng In Japan The deal may well
add some $20 mUllon
annually Lo the company's top Une. Too, wIth a number of

Blo-Rad's share In the burgeoning E.U.


market seems assured over the near term
at JeasL
Clinical Diagnostics may benefit from
increased concern about public safety
in the wake of the terTOrlst attacks.
The
.. gmenc
already
reported
higher
demand for blood-virus tests immediately
following the attacks, due to the related
spike in blood donations. particularly on
the East Coast. Too, fear or biological terrorIsm may increase demand for bacterialstrain typing. Already. the iCycler has
been used In ampUfying DNA to Identify
such pathogens as anthrax. As. such. we
remain confident that this segment's revenues will continue to grow at a low- to
m1d-slngJe-dlRit clip.
Biu-Rad's s6ares reJDain a tiJnely seJeetion for year-ahead
perfonnance.
Due to recent investor interest. the issue's
price is now testing record highs. As such,
although we look for solid sales and earnIngs growth through 20042006. the stock's
capital-appreciation
potential over !hat perloo is now below the v.uue Line median.
Nils C. Van Liew
December 7. 20()J
118,", 10:. vamg
Company's FIn.ndal ..... 1Ilh
B

'-"::':-'===::::;'====7'===0-::7==0.,::=========7==:'::;:';':=:-=-==-:-::=...,..-1
end-market
demand for life- competiUve offerings still being evaluated,

1)"96.

THE PlIBU~R
"I..,

1.01 123
12.83 '''.80
''''''
"...
10.5 11.7
.70
.73

330.3 328.6 3$.3


396.6
11.3" 9.04" 15.1% 14.2\
13.9 15.5 15.8
16.7
5E
2.8
15.6 26.3
43.5' 4Ill'
35.0% 2S.~
1.8"
.9'1. -4,4'1.
6.B
82.9
au 88.4 111.8
51.9 47.8 26.3
20.9
107.1 110.3 129.8 157.1
S."
3.4%
10.9" 154'
5.5~ 2."
12.0\ 16.7%
5.5"
2.05" 12.01 16.71
...
..
..

(A) Prmuy.-TWIgS thmugh 1998. b8Sic


($0.39), '97, (SO.31t. "99, ($0.90). '00,
theRr8ltB" Excludes nonrecanng gansl
$1 26. Next earmngs report due e-1y Rib
(tmIs) '85. ($0 11),'86. ($0 OJ): '88. ($003t,
InmlI)llS, ad)/sbld b nx:k spits.
'89, ($0.10); 12. $D81;
$0.17. "85. ($0 10); C Shn pna! data b" BO-RmCla:s A
o ~CI)l. VIlle LN P\dshiIQ, m. All riqlCs rame:I hl2llll IMIIIIIiIl 1$ ataineII fnIIII _
"*-IlD

w.

'n.n
3.90
2.52

20.0 r
126.9
Strong
214.7

Past Est'd .... 00


5Yn.
~'Mo'll
9.0%
9.0%

.n

1991
1!1!18

..

..

2922 32.41
lo61 3.51
1.29
2.15

'~Eg to

CIIIClUARTERLYSAlES (SlID.)
.ndar IlarJ' Jun.JO S.p.JQ Dec.J1
1991 116.2 107.9 99.0 118.8
,.
125.7 115.B 113.5 194.4
_
185.5 180.8 175.8 117.8
2001 1JI1.7 195.' 180.1 flO.'
2002 Z17
2f3
207
201
ellEARNINGS PER SHARE Ii.
Incl., lIar')1 JUII.3D S')I.30 DK.31
1991
.58
.16
.52
1!J1l1
.89
.65
.35
d.92

end.r

9.0\

200CI 913M11

1.

2711
1.61
23

..

1.11
8.98
1,."
",.0
1.52

..

310.7
11.0%
12.1
8.2
39.7'4
2.6"
704.7
&4.9
00.8
7.1\
9.0\

COITltncm Stock 12,493,546 sIIs.


(57% of Ce.p'~
(lO.lm" 'A"sh:s.. 2.4 mil. Bshs.)C
as of 1Q131ro1
IIAJIKfl CAP: $712 m111J.M(Small Cap)

k;da

--

$13.4 mil.

NaI'l8 - No deMed benefi

21.70
1.65
.49

1.14
~6'
6.90 Hi!
11.1' 11."
12.7 20.3
.91 1.30

as of 1I3OJ01
Due k15 Yra SIt.3m"
LTIntlrnt.$13.2ml.
1.81.)
(43% of Gap1)
Annualtenlills

26.24
1.71
.69

1"1

IS Ml1 RCSPI:wsEU: tOR AIfY El;IIiIORSOR CMSSIONS H[REfi


md1, sam! ...,...11..,
,ri'all*'n: II DIB ba

TIB ~

...

b .....

Ihins only. Crass 8 shaM


power at Class A, CIaIS B thareholder.i elBd.

75% of boanI of dl"ecl:m.

stock' "riel: Stablll1y


" .... GrowtbPe~
E.mlngs PrDctabllty

be r1IiIUe .., 15frOWi*d wIIQA tnmllIlin of ..., UMI __


II sHIJ' Ill" samaib!r'5~.
_~
"'-IM.
No pm

II ~
IIIJ pNIIlIlI tB:IICM: puIIbIiIlrI. wna III ~

, '.

65

50
20
:

II:

t I'

BRUSH ENG MTlS


5 t.c.rl!ll!rlkll

TllEUIIBS
SAFrt

High,:

low:

....

19.0

12.4

17.5
11.0

18.6
13.4

..

Pp;e

"U ....

Ann'l Total ''''1 ..


Rilbam

GIIn

{~340~1..251"
"

5.
Low
30 +'65%
Insider Decision.

....
....::.. "'"",...

,0.5

14.5

16.1

,...
16.1

19.1
12.9

30.0
10.9

'4.3

Nil

14.0

10.7

80
80
50

Sffl:l"SJi;ln

..
.i1j

, ,
"-

"'

D.lF_AII.,IJA.

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
001001000
001
002
0 0 0
Institutional Decisions
1m.1 102.1 Parc:wllt ".0
4S
atla."
4.029
traded
2.01150. "lI63

'

I'"

32
- -- - -- ""

'I

, .'

.~

"I"

,.

.... -.

..

"....

1.7'

Pension

Uabllty

None

PM Stock None

10.5

d3.5

..

23.6~
Nil'
4.0'1.
88.6
90.4
35.0
33.1
162.3 188.1
Nil'
5.7'
~IF 62~

11Il1.l

Cash_

.1

4.3

Inventory (UFO)

00.,

110.6

92.3
115.6
37.9

CUlT8nt A.-ts
Acds Plyable

224.3

25lTI

27.7
40.5
312
99.4

46.6

19.'
33.'

Do'.. "",
Olhor

Curnll'll Liab.
ANNUAL RATES

d_U-"')

S.""

"CaahAaw"
EBmngs

DiVl:lerids
Book Value

Post
1'YIL

4.0"'"
-3.5%

".5%
-3.5%
0.5%

'.6

129.7

40.0
2632
27.0

34.7
25.4

1ll6.7

32.5

482
107.7

.......

Put Est'd '98-'00


51..
7.5"
7.0'14.5%
-3.5"
.. .5%
25.5"
11.0","
NMF

3.5%

3.""

QIIARTERLISAW 110111
end.r lIar.31 Jun.30 SeD,. Dec.31
1891 114.2 1113.0 96.2
96.5
1l9!l
113.2 108.1 113.8 120.1
135.4 13T.2 143.9 14T.2
21101 145.5 128.5 101
111
21lO2 120
12S
1~
135
EARNiNGS PER S1tARE
ea.
endl:r .ar,31 Jun.30 Sep.30 DK.31
1191
d.Ol
.37
.17
.04
.06
.1S
.2ll
d.03
.14
.25
.23
.24
d.fa
21101
.31
.06 d.4S
2002 NI
.10
.15
.2S
QIIARlElLTONllENOSPAl) ..
eal
endl:r Ibr.!1 Jun.30 $e1ll.3D Dec.31
.\897
.22
.12
.11
.\191
.24
.12
.12
.12
.12
.12
.12
.12
.12
.12
.12
. 12
.12
.12

I.I.

~"""""''''''''7,d''''''_.
nom!CUrm5l' gains (bsse;~ '1l5,(53);
'89, 17,; '91, ($2.52); '94, (9j); 'B8, (S1.01~
Em 9i11'1iom salll cI dis::onlnlllld 0plr.ItixIs:
o ZUll, VMIe I..JIe
. Inc. AI'
~.

TIlE P\MlSHER
d. ~ be I~

IS ~L~RNtf
It5DlIL.-lIIlII.'-'"

Fill

Y.,
409.9
455.1

563.1
olIO

510
Fill

Y.,
.fi1

.40
.86
~10

.50
F~I

Yau
.4S
A9

.48
.48

~o: '.

-35.2

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998"19~9


18.37
1.75
.40
26
.19

2U5
2.49
123
23
1.10
11.60

23.00
2.59
1.26
.36
1.56

23.10
2.5<
1.52
.42
1.81

26.48
2.70
1.56
.46
'.83

25.14
1.90
.51
.49

12.46

13.46

13.60

16.1l

".ut

12.9
.85
1.4\

14.9
1.00
1.9~

""'"
ll.1

14.45
1.;
14.0

.16
2.3~

2.1~

295.5 345.9
11.1'11 13.7%
21.7
19.6
6.5
20.6
162\ 17.9%

369.6
13.1'
20.9
20.1
24.6"
5.6\
1252

24.5
26ll'
6.5\
128.1

17.0

18.9

10,70
1.....

JL'
1.91
2.0\

U~

telBcorrl'n.

1052

5.9'l1
115.3

316.3
14.3%
18.5

.,

433.9
12.1%
18.7
25.6
27.9~
5.9'11
100.6

2.2B
16.
36.3
1.89
23~
409.9
9.411
21>
9.4
15.'%
2.3'
99.0
32.1
221.8

27.91
1.61
.40
.48
1.03
13.51
1
39.5
225
3."
455.1
7.4'
20.
6.4
15.'%
1.4'
124.9
42.3
220.6

34.13
2.12
.86
.48
1.29
13.92
16.5

212
Uf
2.6~

'2001 2002
n... 1D.71
f.25
100
~10
.$0
.31
NI
1.JJ
t.5I!
11 ..
1110

,.

.10.8

19

263

-11S.lS

55.1

e- 4
~
e-

VALOEutP\l9
~C. 04-06

.....

45.15

""111

OIl

"Cull Flow" "" III

E.n1n8s pII' at A
Djy'ds DKf'd per Ih

,"
.24

II

I.,.
110

CIp'SpIodiIlg",,1Il

B"'_"" III

"""''''::
....~;::

omm...

1..

Avg"'"1~'_
R_P/ERsio
A:vgAnn' biv'd YlIkI.

563.1
1.9~
20.9

'"

5.'"
23.0
dU

14.2

22.1~
2.5~

31.5%

,,.

Nil'

ua
.IlI

I,.

510 -I$IIlIII)
.'"

..

250 OspoKl':;;' '::'WI


Nil,,"," So.31.0" InccnlTuR.II
1.111 NIIPn>I1M.
110
Coo'l (lnW)
10.0 Lon'T .... IloIJII"""1
US SlIT. EeuiIY
.l.5lI RftIm 011 Toll! CafI'I
Shr. Eq<rity
1'" R.......

1''''
31.0

40.0
31.0"

.."

W_S

210
43.3
55.0
70.0
17.9
229.9
200.3 219.3 ZlB.I
US
3lJO
Nil'
9.9'11 10.1'11 10."
3.8%
3.0%
5.7%
11.5"
Nil'
10.3%
10.8%
42~
2.9~
62%
11ll'
13.0%
~MF 4.3'
7.7%
RIIIined 10 CUll Ell
1.6"
'2~
-" ~MF 2.1~ NIE
Nil'
~IF 31~
27%
26~
93~
122%
56~
29~
N' AI DiY'dlta Mil Prof
BUSINESS: Brzn1Ir fngfneel'ed MBteriaIs (I:JrmfI1y Bruslt welmrnJ
(specialy metal sysIBmsJ lIfId WA.m AdvarttBd Mat8f'iills (pre.
15 the watI'!I only fully integraEd pnxIuC8l' and SlIPpier of beryl- cious metal products). 1Xl far. ules: 27% 0I1d.; depr. It: -4.8%. Has
Un. ProducIs nd. mpper- and ni:kel-based beiIyIign .~.
2,500 empl.; 2, 100 Itrilkirs. 01'1. and dir. own 5.5" r:I com. stock;
bBJyIia anrni:::s, specialy mslI:l sys8ns, and prgcious IIIIIlII
SSB Citi Fund MlJTK. 13.9%. (5101 Prnxy). Ctwmn., PieS. & CEO:

... _
.....
....

_.
Common Slocl 16,610,255 shs.
(B2Sd~p'~
As r1I!l.W1
MARKET CAP: S200 milliDn (Small Cap)
CURRENT POSrTlJN
OI2JOI'

17
10

5 'If

1989 1990 .92


1985 1986 1987
18.50
18.5< 16.48
12.97
20.03 19.66
12.83 16.69
2.31
2.59
1.20
1.91
324
1.86
2.62
2.33
.80
1.09
d22
.65
1.48
1.20
1.79
1.18
.61
.11
.59
.20
.52
.5<
.56
>9
1~
125
1.16
.90
2.36
1.18
1.00
'.34
13.10 13.43
10.10 10.49
13.49
1m
12.48 13.11
1 . 1
1126 1~1,
10.82 18.43
., 24.9
32.
lD.O
1>.0
1l.1
26.'
.. 1.51
1.34
1.84
1.79
1.66
f.25
>4'
2.6~
3.6~
3.1'11 12~
1.1~
2.4\
Hi"
2615
265.0
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE as of 612U11
9.6~ 14.5\
Total aelt! $83.8 mil. Due In. 5 y" $73.0 mil.
22.1
202

leU_, Uncapitalized:

10

... ".....
' .. """ ...
i==

.. ~

"'""
1988

LT Intanst $2.4 mil.


(18% at Cap"Q
AnnUli ren1a1s $10.0 IDI

20

.. Tm RE1lJRIIM,

"

LT~blS51.3mil

2<

~--

.5 ..1

".

r8rget Price Rilnge


2004 2005 2006

'42

SIlrigDl

PROJECTlONS
Plica

23.6

9..5."'CI~ Jt." P 511

.. , Rellift

BETA JO 0.00. MIIllt)

2_

I ~.?
11.5
.5

25{

LEGENDS

3
3 ''"'"""
....WZ101

TECHMCAL

f
11401:RATKI
NMFCr>inSIl.l)
Itdim: ZU ~J%NMFI~

I~CENT
PflJCE

NYSE8W

I.>
m.l
186.9
3.8%
10.5%
3.8%
11.0~
13~ 9."
65~
11%
24.0

Brush Englneen.d Materials will IIkely see continued. earnings weakness


for the remainder of the year. Secondquarter results broke the chain of sequentlal Improvement that the company had
been posting since late )999, with share
net coming In 67% below the prior-year
level. The effects of the general economic
downturn arrived somewhat late for BW.
largely because customer inventories for
copper beryllium alloys were low last year
due to supply constraints. However, startlng in the June period, BW was hit by
declining order rates and cancellations
from such key endmarkets as teJecommunlcations and computers. which lo~ether make up about 50% of the company s to~
tal sales. Moreover. the recent teITOrlst attacks appear to have stnJck a blow to an
already
weakening
economy. further
dampening hopes for a recovery this year.
As a result. we have made a substantial
downward adjustment to our 200 1 sharenet estimate, by SO.85.to a loss of SO.lO.
The company is taking a number of
steps to offset the decline in business.
These include efforts to trtm manufacturIng costs and overhead spending. while

'89.17/._

...................

Is..-i

''''

Map rnaO:Bts; ill/tl. elecboni:3. 6&OIPO'" .....


Has two lpecilIlizBcI subsidiariBs.: Techniall MaleriII5

18~.C InDividendsuspended
&1)1
mli:Jn!l
'.diDI
CIthined

143.4

''''

G.D. Harnett. Inc.: OH. Adelr.: 17876 St. Cllilir Ave., CIlMlIaI'ld.
44110. Tel: 216-486-4200. 1nt8met:www.bemnc.con.

OH

capital expenditure
budgets
are
being
pushed out. MeanwhJ1e, the workforce has
been trlmmed by over 1D% this year. and
BWs
quarterly
diVidend has
been
suspended. With no clear indication of
when the environment will turn around,
these cost-saving actions are .likely to contlnue over the next few quar1.er.i. As such.
we've lowered our 2002 eam1ngs estimate
by $0.75, to $0.50 per share.

These untimely shares bold strong


recovery potential over the 2004-2006
time frame. Overall. the company's belttightening in the face of weakened conditions should position It to rebound strongly
once the economy and its key end markets
come back. The matter of timing remains
uncertain at this point, but we look for
gradUal Improvement, with BWs quarterIy results llkcly returning to the black in
the first half of next year. Longer tenn.
with the capacity brought on in recent
years. Brush Engineered Materials will be
able to go after new business. whim, together with improved productivity. should
help generate double-digit
bottom-line
gains over the 3- to 5-year period .
Mario Ferro
October 26, 2001

,.....

~~

'"'"*"
o.n. ~

12'"

rie. StGIlItJ

Stock's

60

Price GlUth PIIrsIstMlte


Eamlngs P .... ct.iity

~1II
~
fnn ~
bIIirRd 10lie niItIIe IIIlI is
~.MM1ie5
III ... Urd.
rRRORS OR OtlISSlONS HEREIN.1bi5 ~
is *dt''' Ul5ab:r'5
idW'nllllSe.
pall
i1111J pNId. etlQlri: II ~ -. 0I1l5tl11l1 ~
IlII1l11l11i1JIn)' piIId 1lI1i1a'_
~
II51E:t CI podUl1.

20

I '.

2D
35
:

II:

I I

IRECENT

CVS CORPORATION NYSE-evs


TII[IJN[SS

&VA.15

3 ~;LE~GJE~NfD~S~~~~1~~~~~~~~
~l~_
~
2 ...,.....
3 RaiItd
4I1.rJJ
Newlt1lWl

TECHNICAl..
SAF'ETY

DIY'D

45 mTO 24.1 (~~~i~)l~~


1.73 YlD 0.5%

IPRICE

O.QCI-MlirkS)

High:
Low:

21.1
18.2

35.0
19.5

56.0
30.4

r,rget Prk:. Ran.,.

46.8
27.8

58.4
30.0

2003 200. 2005

16.0 I C,IVI F.... P 5h


RdIWe Pm S-Mglh

100

80

nl

~d':aiJdi;.wsrrn'BilIl

2DD3-05PROJE~~~
TaW
Price
c;.Irl
RItum
HIgh 80 (~~DO%\ ""
LatI
60 ,.35%\ ."
Insider Deemions

"'"

-to
32
24

'"

20
10

" 0 J f A.
J J I--+---+--I------_+-------+--~~---_+----+_-_+-_+~.,
4 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
~
001000100
II'.
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
.. : ....
.... ".
.. TOT.RETURIUIDD
Institutiolllli Declslona
TII5 WlAlml.
401., 101M 2m..
!nOCI
.:0.
II'"
2n
255
243
'JIf".
::~

~~=:.nt~:::

==.1

~~

330~

3;rr~~i

tn.ded

12

1s~~

5.0

~~:

--

1066

"Consumer Value Slores" began in Mass. in 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19961997' 199B' 1999 2000 2001 cYALIJEUNEP\ll.IIC.
Ow.;
The hBa~h and beauty aids chain grew

..
..23.14 25.93
36.94
39.14
46.11
Sf.. 51. WlIJIII'IhA
'UO
to 17 stores ~ '64; its firm pharmacy opened
.

..
.13
1.08 1.71
1.91
~19
2.65
105 'Cub R",,",*,"
Ul
in '67. In '69, the chain was sold to Melville
...
.
.

.40
.12 1.06 1.2fi 1.55 1.ID
2.10 EInq'1* Ill120
Corp. CVS embarked on raJid store dow"
.'
..
..
..
..
..
.08
22
13
13
.23
-" D"' Ilocl'.....
Co
-"
opmenl program, complemented by an ag
.
..

..
S.16
04.44 6.02
1.2fJ
8.68 flUID
11.15 BoakYalIMlp-'sh
11.15
'63.

gressive
acquisition
policy.
including
Peoples Drugs ('90). In '95, Melville restruc

...

..

...

..
..

.
..

21.20
..

21320

344.110

"[1.7

2'.5

lured. On 11119196,
its name was changed
to CVS, reflecting Its ongoing business.

..

..

..

..

1.74

1.41

.3"

.8\

CAPITAL STRUCTURE .. of 711*


TatlIDebt$1S46.2rnl.oueIn5YrlS990.0mill.
IT Debt $5S8.0 mill.
lTInter.st $39.5 mil.
Indudes $1.5 m" capiillized 18ases.
(Total inWest COYefBge: 16.41)
(12% of Cap1)
l .....
UncapIbiIizedAnnualren1aIsS474.1 mil.
Pension u.biIitJ $6.0 mil. iI '99 ft $74.5 mil ill
'88.

'-"'-"

:.S~.~~~OS~~~~'::h~~~~:S
Iklufdating value.) Eadl conv. mo 2.314 am shs.
(6% orcap'Q
Common Stac::k 390,666,755 slls. (82% of Cap')
.. of II1.RJCl
MARKETCAP: S1Ubillion llarve C.p)
CU7~mposrrlON
1_
1H1
7/1/00

04330.1 ot8&I.O 5528.1

12738

28.1"
51'5

21.6%
7.4%

.
.....

.,

_.

.,

.
.

.
.

..

4t~

.
.-........

..

_.

_.
_.

_.

_
.,

._

_
._

~~"=

~1 ~~:gi~J BUSINESS:

SirleS
"C
.. h..... '
Eamngs
orm.nds
9ooIl:VaJU8'

..
_.
__
__
...

27.9%
6 '"

.,
90.3
2.15

.
1366

100.4
41.0%
2.15

28.0%

6.8"
14DB
161.5
40.65
3.05

39011 392.00 3JO.IXI 3Il0G Connon SIIs 0utsl'1I U


3~3
19.3 ...... _ _
Ann'lPh...
1.68
1.67
~ ~
._.PIE....

A',

.6"
15214
27.0"
7.7"

.5"
18098

10150

3888

4122

.
oW96

4fiD

380.0
43.55
3.0%

510.1
41.3\
3.3\

635.1
41.0\
3.5\

4D."

171B.1
558.5
3679.7
14.8% 15.4% 15."\

6.1% 11.71
6.5"
13.5% 16.1% 16."\
HMF 11.31 14.71 14.4\
36"

26.9'11. lU~
1 BY. 7.ft

762.3
790.8
!3O.0 1165.9
m.7
303.7
2n,6
275.7
1M7.B 12-45.1 2361.04 3110.6

NUF

20"

CVS Corpondon il Me nafix1"1 lalgesf drug chlil, in


number of IoclItions, will 4,090 drugstores (iod. ProcaIv) ill 29
sWtes, mar,ly n Nor1hM5I., Md-AlIlIInlic, SouIieesl, and "idw~
11Igi:m, and D.C. lalo &'DO} Hew libes ~
abl 10,500 square
feet HokIllBading shant II most oJ Is dru!l'tlft mi1Ibls. Recent
acqs. indo Arbor Dr\lg (3/98) and Rsvm DS (~7). 0pwaEs lead-

20\

17.3%
15.6\
16\

Z2fOQ s.Iu('Snill)A
26.7'1 GlQlllbrgn
I~
Optrdng IIariJn

15%

.12GIXI
lU~

lJI
4IilID

41fD INnIbIr at S&ar.


"5

NaProIl(SrIIiIII

4D.K Inaat fuRm


J,~ In
NItPruIl."
1750
11DtJ WorUIllClp't$llil)

14.B

U5
..."

AveAnn' Div'dY"IMI

145

515
4165
16.""
11DS

315.00
210

MD LqTIrlII o.bI~}
.5 SIlT.
11M RftIm on Tatal
Rnam 11:1 Sbr. EaUitw
16'.51 RNiHd to CDnIEq
131 AlDh"dltoNltProi

elp'

1m

,.
lADS
.{1"
2DIXl

'I.
765D
11.0"
17,3

1US
'"

ing Web Ill!!, C~mm. Phamacy


(RxJ contribuEs i1ot. 62% of
sam; Jrd.par1y, 89% of Rll sa... Has i1bou1 100,000 1IfnI)Ioy.,
11,200 shrtlldl's. FMR Corp. owns 12.S" of cormun nx:k; oft'"lC8I'S
iIIId dncus, 2.9% (3oro prtay). Cha~,
PnlsIJent & CEO;
Thomas M. Ry.n. lnc.: DE. Adcnss: One CVS Driw, Woonsocbt.
RI 02895. Te"phone: 401765-1500. 1ntem8t. www.CVS.am

Inventory (FIFO)
31902
3445.5
3500.1
Olher
327.9
2332
279.7
CUIl1!n1:Assets
43492 4608.0
"721."
Acds Pa)'llble
1286.3 1454_2 1103.9
Debt Cue
785.7
<468.3
988.2
Other
1111.3 ~
956.2 t-;:;;';;;;;::':';'::=C==:::;'::;C"'=-=-'=""-7==-='::'---':::"::::::';:::!:=:":::'-'-'=;-':::C:::::::;:':;===:;---l
Cumlnf Uab.
3"i'83.3 2889.9 3046.3 CVS Is one of the top performers
more due to the large thirdpany drugANNUAL RATES Pat
Pat Est'd '!7.'19
(along With Walgreen) in the drug
plan component of its pharmacy business
oI'ct-Ige{pw'"
lRYrs. 5Yrs. to')''15
chain industry. CVS Is gaining market
l89% of Rx revenues), stronger front-end

_.
_.
_
__

12.5"
14.'"
16.0"
2.5"
11.5%

share at an JmpressJve rate. thanks to an


aggr essI ve expans Ion p Ian an d Jar ge op-

(nonphannacy)
margins
should provide
some 0 Ifset. whIl e he! p Ing to support aperportunlstic acquJsitions. It now holds top ating
margins.
Accordingly. our 2001
marketshare
positions In about 80% of Jts share-net estimate stands at $2.10.
C...
llIJAR1BlI.YSAlES
IhAI
Full Dperatlng
tenilnrtes.
and plans In ac- The
acqUisition
of
Stadtlander
.ndlr
lIuPer Jun. Per SID.Per DK.Pel
YaM
celerate store openings. with added effi- Phannacy strengthens
CVS ProCare's
1191 3161 3161 3080 3J36 27'3Bt!" phasis on new-market
entries.
Indeed.. position
in the high-growth
specia1ty
1991 3602 3156 3725 419115274' CVS expects
to enter the Important Chtcapharmacy
business.
This
undersenoed
1995 4240 4362 4312 5184 18096 go market (Walgreen's home base) with Jts sector (which caters to patients in need of
_
4740
'!lI3 4175 !i6!2 2025D first two slores In the fourth quarter,
costly specla1lzed drugs and therapies) Is a
200t 535D 5IOQ 552S N15 2ZJGQ several months ahead of the previously an- $'4 bUlJon retail and maU""Orderbusiness
CalEARNIJtGSPER SHAREII
FilII nounced schedule. Another long-term goal that is growing by 20% a year, and has the
.ndu Ilu.P., JIII.Per S$P8t' Dec.Ptr Year is to Increase the number or highly pro-- potential to add $2 button to $3 billion to
1197
29
30 E 100 duct.Jve freestanding drugstore prototypes
CVS' revenues by 2004. Stadtlander will
,.
.
.26
.21.
.
It operates, many featuring drive-through
be earnings neutral this year. but should
1991 ::
:~
:~
::
f
pharmades and extended hours or opera- contribute $0.02 to share net in 2001.
_
.'7
.46 .35 .52 1.11J tlon. By m1d-decade, CVS expects 80% of CVS shares are ranked to outperform
2001 .54 .55 ,41 ,Ill
2.10 Its drugstore base to be freestanding. up the year-ahead
market.
But. after ad~
CaIQUARTERl.YDIVIJENDSP,wCtr
Full from the QUTent mix of about 35%.
vancing 18% in price over the last three
endi1r 1111'.31Jun. sn~30 Dec.31 Vur
We look for CVS to report ZOOO share months. the stock's 3- to 5-year price1996 __
..
.. 055 06 net of around $1.80. refiectlng saUd top- appreciation potential is now below the
1997 .055 .055 .055:055
22 Une growth, especJally on the phannaey \oWue Line median. despite the favorable
1991 .055 .055 .058.058
23 sJde. cost-cuttJng benefits. and further
earntngs growth we project for CVS over
.058 .058 .058.058
23 synergies from recent large-scale acqulsl- that extended tlme period.
2000 .058 .058 .058
tlons. While gross margins may erode a bit Maurice Levenson. CFA
October 6. 2000
AIPro bmfl ~ cvs onlypri:Jr to lOJI&'96l llntord. ~
'97, 5. '99 qtr.I. don' swn due .bI ... th rI Feb., May,Aug .. Nov . Qjy'd reno, ~ornpany'. Fmndlll stNngtil
A

t~

1.

B From contino oper.; based on &Vg. sin.


toc:hangol'" .vg. Itn. Next egs. dua Oct. 30.
thru '86, di. ..,.. &cl nonlKW. iWns: '95, fC) CVS only. N8xI ljjy'd nWg. abl Jan. 10.
16O):"96. 34;; '87, (95): '98. (28j~EJtL u- Nlad ex di1t& att Oct1S. DiY'dpaymenl di1tes:
CI 2lJ1ll. v.- I..JIe P\Ibi5hiIq, Int. AI ri:IIU rt5eR"III. flClUllllllMlill
a atainea "- _
bcRIed Ia lie
THE PUIIUSl-EA IS frIOT ASf'ONSlBlflORNlT
ciI 1M)' lie I'IptIdIEell 5bIII 0" ~
..

[RROIl'iOR
.,

OMISS!oOHSH[REW.
0" tlI1eJ bnl. 0"

piled. *':ftIII:

n. puIKJliDlIli

U54IllIaI

gmedliI'!I

SIidly
II"

vest. pDn avail. (Dlln milt, ad~ for sieck split


(E) Pro tnna lor R8vco acq. (F) Ind. Arbor,
KIl. 3l311911.(GJ NllIIled with

~
..
"~_,,,a~
if, ~

5129197.

IIIInIIIie5 " Illy kOd.


tiIl __
De. Na P'fl
pdIaIim1. S81Iice II" FftlIKl.

all

rlWIRli1t ..,. JIi*d tBWK

R:ftIXl,

Stoa'a Prtce StaIIiIity


Price Grawtb Persistence
eamlngs Prwdlctabllity

'.

55
B5
75

: II:

II'

CARAUSTAR IND. NDQ-CSAR


5 _" "',..
3 Hew1n&99
TECHNICAL 5 _".Wl

TJlElJIIBS
SAFETY

lET" JO 11J1O.~
200~5 PROJECTIONS
Ann'l TataJ
Price
GaIn
Rlilm
High
40
38"
Low
25 "'11o%f 24"
Insider Declslons

LEGENDS
1.0 I-C,'"

"""", ...
....

I Low:

High:

r... p

DIV'D
YUl

12 ~oo
19.9

15.0

20.3
13.3

22.5
15.0

23.0
15.8

37..3
18.6

38.1
22.0

36.0
20.5

J F A.
J J
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
o,iI.000000010
.1l1li 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
N D

T.lIrgttt Price

2003 200.

~fl'J

'1n'ssD!

32

----I '

2'
20

,I
JIIIP

;;--

18

"'111

I--+--+--I'------:::;.-f===--------------"'-"j.j-----+--+--+
,
~

12
8

""'" ..,. -
-6311
25.2

--"':"~ct"""--,--+-- %TOT.~:
'1'.
3 yr.
5yr.

-53.5

154

35.2

91.6

2001 gVALUHJiEPlJ8.~C.
4J.15 SoIK p.,,1t
4. '0 "Cutl Flow" 1* sh
1.10 E.nlngs per Ih A
DWdsDtd'dl*shli.
US Cop'lSpIn"1 p.... "
12.00 Book YIIuI per sh C

.7'

LTDebt $'269.7miJ.
LT Intr~
$25.0 mil
(EsI'd IT nrest e.-n~ 3.Ox: E5l;'d Ictal irdfn!sl:
"""'39' 3.""1
(55" d CaP')
Annual rentlls $8.5 mil.

Pension Liability NDI'I8


PId Stock None

1.

Ca:-~

1.

IIJOIDO

2.6
78.'4
67.5
82
154.7
'47.0
26.1
30.2

"""i'03.3

18.8
108.8
89.8
9.7
ZZ7.f
62.5
18.8
48.3
127.4

ANNUAL RATES Pdt


aI'chPII (pw"'j
llYn.
SeJes
_.
''Cash Flaw"
--

~~

!t

.....
'.......
Book Value

.nII.,

ell-

QUARTERLYSAW"1III.l
lIar.31 Jun.30 S'D.. Det;.'1

1191
11911
1999

15T.6
176.8
16T.6

160.8
189.7
212.5

173.7
188.5
241.3

1T6.0
181.8
248.T

2000
2001

260.9
211

255.1
275

2&ll

Z64
295

2000
2001
CeIend.,

1996
191T
1191
1999
2000

2.9
122..9
106.3
10.9
243.0
70.1
16.7
46.0
132.8

EARHDtGSP!RSHAREA

1111.31Jun,3D Sep.3D Dec.'1

.25

.51
.52
.41

.:rr

.50
.50

!iT
.50

.36
.4IJ
.5lt

.40

Z3

AD
AS
..f5
QUARTERLYDIVIlE)([)S PAID
.hr,'1 Jun.3D SenJO Dec.'1
.12
.14
.16
.18
.18

36.5" 37.9' 37.5' 35.7' 38.~"" 38.0" 38.4' 36.6"


8.~" 7.7% 8.1'10 8.0" 8~
7.9" 9.6'
7.n.
~.6
U
46.~ 43.0
48.8 46.8 c147.6 71.9

361"
1.~
5U

359"
~.6"
991

.12
.14
.16
.18
.18

.12
.14
.18
.18
.18

.12
.14
.16
.11
.18

11.0

J5
UO
155IJ

RIIatiYI PIE Rdo


"I"~IIliv"I'"'"

.130 SoIK
14.51l 0 .......

I1nIIl

Ii-

UO DopNdo1ion(lml)

551'
..
.-

126.0

83.~

83.5

83.5
102.3

83.~
1391

83.3

212.1
2139

d68.7 ~7.6 74.4


170.6
51.3'4 23.7% 19.~' 21.0" 20.9'4 24.9% 13.1'
.. 52.4' 36.1" 34.7% 30.9% 33.9% 23.9'
.. 52.~' 26.1" 25.91 232'
26.;% U.~'

25"

25"

21"

'"'"
.0%
105
110
229.9
409.7
375
335
2tIJ
315
233.~
278.5
12-9% 7.8% 1.5%
I"
221'.4
14.1' 11.0% I"'"
4.ft
l~
15.3' 8.3'
31"
40\"
M
""

1315
1(.as
11.0

Not PrvI1lqin
W_g Cop'I("'I)
""'gTom 00b1(!nil
Sh,."WtlllooIIi
Rnnn on TaSaICap'
RoOImon SIr. E"""
R__ 1Ied m Com Eq

r.:===;;:':=::-::==:'-::::-==-;:C=:-:::==--,;=:::":====:-'::::-;,~===:_;;===-==-l
BUSINESS: CaraUstar Industrills, Inc. opentes ., I1ree business
groups: recyclBcl and conwrled paperboard (43.1% cI '99 sales):
tubes, CD8S .nd mmposle contIlien
126.1'): .nd cemnl.nd
custJrn pacb!gng (30.8"). Aho prndums gypsum walloo.d
facing paper. In 2000, 37% or I'fICYded paptlrbD8nf IISiIld Ii'snaly.
Operates B5 plants ... lie U.S., 1ilexQ) and the Unlad KItgdom.

4.5S
1."

20Jl
<Z/I
12.Dll

1m

..

.".

"'"

AI DiY'dl to Nil Prof


Has about 6,000 employcles, 4,500 stocldlolders. Oftianidired.OI"5
own 42% of outstanding corrmon; Capitll Group Cas., 6.0%:
SiIapfl> Capital Management. 6.3', (MIO Pmq). Chairman: RutseI M. RobinSOli 11. Presi:lent .nd CEO: Thomas V. Brown. Inc.:
Nt. Address: 3100 W.shliglon Snel, P.O. Box 115, Austel, GA
30106. Te/9phone: n0-9C8-3101. IlII&nIIt YtWW.ClIIl!1Ustar.com.

amicable settlement cannot be reached.


CSAR hopes to establish or expand Telatlonships with other companies. Moreover.
It also expects margin improvement next
year. thanks to both higher selling prices
throughout its product line and a fall in its
raw material costs. AJso. the company has
spent a lot of money renovating plants In
both IndJana and Connecticut tD be more
efficient and to produce a larger volume of
higher-margin products.
Recent
acquisitions
should
help
Caraustar's
geographic expansion. It
just purchased Dllnols-based Crane Carbon Company and Michigan-based Arrow
Paper Products. The company has made
12 acqulsJUons over the last three years.
and we: expect this program to be
maintained. Caraustar's cmh flaw should
be adequate to both support this program
and to reduce long-term debt.
This untimely
stock may interest
speculative
investors. Our projections
IndIcate that by 2003-2005,earnings will
be at record levels. Also. we expect the
stock's PIE ratio to decidedly improve from
Its current depressed level.
Joe R. Ki!'lls
October 13. 2000

tnl.~_,

(AI PrirI-.y QI'1lngs through 1998, diulBd IBI Nul divdencl rnsoIng 8bout No8rnbIII' 21. Ie) lnet i'ltangibl!s In '99: $140.7 nil,
(;Des liDl about Decsnb8r 15 Apprm. divi:lend S5.52Jsh.
plyment dais:: Jan. 7, Apr. 7, July 7, Oct. 6. (0) In milbns.
Div'd reiw. pllln availablfl.
1D:(IIO. .....
1iIe PutIi5IIilg,Inc..M
I9CJ 115IIftIII. fUd IIIIItriiII h ......
,""" ~
~
~ lit ~
.... is (niriItar .uIIlUl..~
rJ 8lIJ
THEPUBUSlR IS N)1 RESPOKSlBlE10RNl'f E.RRORSOROIMSSlClNSHrRnt.1l1iI:pubIitUlIll5A'dy
lor UI5aIIer'J-'~CIi
.... ciIl, iRIInIII vse. No part
IIIlI "., ~
5IOI'CII ar RrI5I'*d is .,. pwed. ~
or IIIlIW kimI. or II5ed tar' f8IIdiIIJ or nwblng IIfJ pi*" or eIeMIic: ~
SIftice or puQd.

ttunatbw Excludes exlracrc:hnary loss '00-01,


$ 17. Next earnmgs .. port duelal!l oc:mt:v.

llUD
11"'

245

m ~1 ~9 m ~ m ~9 ~~ M~ ~1j 32.D 45.D Not PrvI1II<o111I


81.0
f-,,~~~+.~;_.,~rl_-"';_"""Z'-I-..:';;..._d'E_~~+.;;;+.~0+~~="""""'''!L-_+_d~
37,0% 36A InCOIIII Tu Rh
35.0%

Caraustar's near-term emnings prospeets have recently been hurt


by
several events ... First, the cost of the
company's baste raw material. ~eyc1ed
paper fiber. is well above the current price
for this product. Management expects
sales of this hJgh-cost Jnventory to trim
Fell earnings by about $0.10 a share In the
YMr third quarter.
But planned Increases in
668.1
selling prlces and the elimination of this
736.9 inventDry should remove this negat1ve fac~
890.1
tor by the fourth quarter. Second. proflts
llUD
at the company's jointly owned Temple11311 Inland mill in Indiana have been hurt by
Full
operating ineffidencles. Finally, a legal
Yur
dispute with Georgia Pad.8c (G-P) wiU
~ll5
likely lower earnlngs modestly in the com~04
tng quarters. G-P is obUgated to buy gyp1.83 sum facing paper. a htghmargln product.
1.25 from Caraustar. but now G-P 15 refusing to
1M
continue under the stated terms.
Full
. .. and our estimate of Improved
Yur
ean1ings in 2001 is clouded at this
.48 juncture. Caraustar's gypsum mills were
.56
operating at full capadty lUltU the con.64
tract dispute with CP. It is workIng to
.n minirnlze long-term effects and expects to
recover Its losses In fun from G-P if an

Past Est'd'l7'91
5Yn.
111'13-'15
18.0%
9.0"
18.5%
7.0"
_. 9.0%
8.0"

22.5%
6.0"
- ~ 26.5%
1.0~

.47
.52
.46

890.1
15.~
ID

..

ReceIVables
Inventory (FIFO)
Other
Cul11lntAuefs
AcclsPayable
Debt Due
Olher
CUlT8nt liab.

Ct...

136.9
18.'%

145.5
d86.~

CURRENTPOSITION

elUl.r
191T
1991
1999

210.1 276.0 308.7 342.5 4311 544.6 602.7 668.1


23.6% 21.4% 20.0% 17.e' 18.3% 17.'"
2O.~ 19.4'
U
"
H
1~ ~.5
U1 UJ m

...

V;Aln'tP~Kllio

~_

~ u,.
~;; CAPrrALSTRUCTURE.sof~
TeuloebtJ2B6."
mi. DR 1n.5 YIS $85.0ml.

O~
51.tIJ

&

onI'IIGn
IW:I~

Leases, UncapltalDd

200.

......

R~PrJ:eSlr.

Sh.ded _

Range
100
8

5h

1"'235%'

_Illy

6.0%

23.5
10.3

30.3
19.8

Camp.ny'l FinaNcial Shnglfl


stock'- Prtu Stablily
PriI:a Growth 1Wwom.nc.
E.mlngs PrwdidabiItJ
I

, "

II.

B
10
35
60

II'

CASEY'S GEN'L STRS NOCeASY I='


4
I

TIIUJftSS

RI5edIl1Q1t11

WID

TOINICAL

3 NrwJl21191
3 1lU1113Dl

Insider

0.6%

B.2
3.7

7.7
5.2

12.5
7.8

'2.7
7.2

12.8
8.4

18.3
12.3

16.8
9.7

15.0
7.9

14.8
10.7

8.0 I "'C15fI f_'p 5h

!Iigh
...

4.9
3.2

i:";":1 =WtZll4P1*e~'llh

c....:::::"'2ON..o6
'"' ' n,,''PROJEC11O~.~....
' ".,,.'...' ;;;;,}"".--12 SIYdrtJ
....1 ~ ~ ZI9I
....
Price
GIin
30 (+140%\
20
(+60%1

'.'
,.,

High:
2.8
Low:
1.3
LEGENDS

....

AmI'lTotII
RItum
26%

,.

3" ~

1I'"II'IIIIIIIIU'h,.

-"r. -

,.%

DeclsM::lna
D.,IF_
...

JJA

.. ...,
000000000
0,-.000000000
liS.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

"

Institutional Decisions

'1.59

lQ21t1

lie.,
:.::.'

2980~

~i

68

Hl2.1

.......

..

'10 TOT. RTURII1fD1

'. . "
Percent

11.0

111 shar 12.0


tnldMI '.0
308~

ri:t

1yr.
:1 yr.
!lyr.

-7.9
18.9
40.3

Vl=}-

lie.
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 CYALUfIJtjEP1J8
21.13 22.56 23.73 31.15 38.87 41.40 45.05 Sllapll'lh
A.
6.13 6.02 1.35
9.11 10.95 13.19 13.69 15.19 14,10 16.34 1811
.41
.48
.57
.66
.68
.87
.9B
1.03
1.21 1.41
1.00
1.55
1.15 105 ncuh Aow"p .... h
.23
.31
.38
.35
.18
.20
.26
.3D
.37
.44
.51
.52
.63
.76
.76
.71
.15
1.05 Eamilgi per 1ft
.14
.18
.23
.15
.01
.03
.03
.03
.04
.05
.os
.06
.06
.06
.01
.01
.111 Div'd. Dld'd pII' III C
,.55
1.74
1.93 2.16
2.43 3.06 3.46 3.93 4.042 5.01 5.13
5.95 6.88
7.15
1.15 BookYalutpwlh
1.111 121
1.36
45.14 44.00 44.31 44.35 51.&4 51.93 52.44 52.48 52.60 52.73 51.92 49.49 41.50 41.50 Conmon Sh. 0uts1'S1 p
45.14
45.74
15.8 20.0
9.1
13.1
13.5 14.6 15.1 20.6 18.3 20.3
18.8
16.1
11.0 ~~I--_
AvgAnn1PIERdo
16.4 21.6 13.4
1.2B
1.36
1.19
1.01
.63
.54
.82
.8&
.99
1.311 1.15
1.17
.96
.92
1.10
~ ~
R*fM p~Rdo
1.10
.11
.91
.11
.61
.61
.41
.51
.51
.41
.5110
.6110
.. rAYg Ann'l Div"d Y'1IId
CAPrrAl
STRUCTURE of 7/31.M'1
Total Debt $191.Sm. Du. in 5 Yrs $180 miD.
IT Dtbl $182..0 mil.
IT lIlterat $10.0m.l.
Ind. $4.6 mil caplaized leases.
(LT ml!feSl samed: 6.3%; kltBl irrler8s1
CO'tViIge:5.5.t)
(34%ofC8p1)

606.6 673.1 1312 848.8


20.8% 20.8% 21.51 21.51
5.3% 5.61 6.41
7.11
597
639
681
141
11.5
13.3 16.5 22.9
37.8% 38.0' 38.91 38.8"
leullS. UnapitlllibdAnmllllll8nlaB
$....mil
1.91 2.01 2.3\
2.~
Pension 1I.bility No Pension Plan
d,3.6
d9.0 d34.'
d33.8
61.4
99.0
61.4 60.0
PldStoc:llNone
9<>9 '08.0 158.4 179.7
Common S1oc:1149,514,762
Ps.
.50'1/7101
8.7"
1.8" 92\
10.8"
12.0\ 12.3% 10.4% 1Z.~
IlARKETCAP: $625 million ISm.1I Cap)
10.l''' 11.1"
9.4\ 11.6'
CURRENTPosrrlON
t!!IS! 2000 7/311111 11% 10% 1~
9ft
(SIlL)
CaR.~~

.....n.........

~~

(UFO)

CumtrllAssets

61.0

67.7
9.5

55.7

Other
CUnntusb.

24.0 ~ 102.0
140.7

1109.0
20.1%
6.41
878
21.0
31.51
2.4"
d19.1
19.1
231.9
9.11
11.6%
10.5'
to%

_es.

1186.9
21.6%
1.1'
946
33.5
37.5%
2.8'1
d37.5
79.1
263.4
10.6"
12.7%
11.6"
9"

1251.1
23.1%
8.0%
1022
40.2
31.5"
3.2'4
d13.6
122.5
3019
10.3%
13.31
12~
8\

15 '.54 BUSINESS: casey's Geneliill S!(Q5 operates corrteni!m:& stores


7
iJ nile mclM'1tBm
pri'na-iy i'r Iowa, Missolwi. and IIIrtois.
Stores 181 gasoine .Ilth brDed seI8dion or food (ilcluding freshly
107.3
pr8pared PlZZlI.dontfts. hnbwgerl, K.), bever.tg8S,
and non67.8 fOOCliIHM.14 rl4l3Ol01. Caley'. had 1,191 companJ"'DWfllKl and
9.5 95 hnchi!led DclIIilns.. In fiscli 2000, ga90lite accounted for

t~:; ~~:: ~:~


-m 106.9

~ .. !~abl.
..... uua

31.9
--:;oo:z

1648.2
19.1%
6.4%
1119
39.4
372,.
2.U.
<165.6
112.9
308.8
10.4%
12.8\
11.81
8\

1923.1
18.91
5.51
1191
35.0
31.0%
1.81
49
183.1
340.5
1.1%
10.3\
91%
111

2100

1UO s.lts($nllll)
20.0% Groulllllin

U"
I"' ap.dnu..
1300 1350 ,....,of ....

fiO%

410

5J.O fW.PnlIlIW)
,J1.5%
37.", IncONITu R:dIi
11"
14" NitProm
'10
,to Waoldni Cop'!\Nm)
115
115 LongTIffIlDtlbl.(~
""
430 Sh,,-EmY IWl
1.0" 10.0% Relllm on ToW ClIP'l
11.5% 11", Rtlum on Shr. fcUlv
111.5"

"'

11.5% Rltlined1DCIII'I Eq

'"

JJ1D1Y'd.~NeIProt

~
51.40
170
1.J5
.10
1140
50.00
IU

U5
.5%
2510
210%
7.5%
1550
110
21,,5%
1'"
10.0

f.
lID
11.0%
1190
11.5"
'"

60.5" or net sales. A,vg. I1Ilailu.IM per sbe w.. $1.590 mi. il
'DO. Has 5,343 full tm. Mnplys. Has about 2,600 11thit's. otI'i:lln
& DI9t1on own 11.8% cI aiII.; 1I11l1ys' svgs.. Plan, 7.1"; T. Roftt
Priai AsIDe . 9.8% (8101 Proxy). Clanm.n: D.F. lantlldi CEO:
R.... lMnb. Ine.: Iowa. Adt:i".: 0118 ConYBnillnce Blvd . Ankllny.
ItMil50021. Tel.: 515-96S-6100.1nWnet:
www.tas8)'S.ctm

r,~=::;:--==~===-:~~'-:"'=-;-=:====,,-=~=::.c.=c-:.:==:====""C::;;:;=~=====-j

continues
to face downward
eratlng
cost structure,
will likely support
on
its bottom
line. Rising solid results
going forward.
Clfdwlge(pll"~)
11'IrL $Vra.
to'N-'N
wholesale prices, coupled With strong comMeanwhile.
the company continues
to
Sales
11.0% 1. 0%
7.5"
peUtive pressures at the retail level, are
invest
heavily in its store expansion
''Cash Aow"
13.5%
12.0% Q.O%
squeezing
gasoline margins.
Indeed, durprognun.
So far, management
is well on
~~~
15.5~ ~~::
'~.~
ling the July period, the company's gasoIts way toward ach.leving Its target of add~
BookValue
13.5% 12.0% 10.5"
Ine margins averaged only $0.09 per galing 180 corporate
stores in the two-year
A""
Q1JARIDLY
SALfSII Iil) A
R"'""" Ion. down substandally
from the $0.13 regperiod ending wlth the dose of Bscal ZOOI.
BY:;" Jul.31 0cU1 Jan.31 ADr.30 Y_
istered last year and management's
objecAnd at least an additional
50 stores are
1M 332.4 322.4 291.6 304.7 1251.1 dve of between $0.10 and $0.11. Allin all. slated to be built next Dscal year, What's
1999 387.2 412.8 402.0 446.2 1648.2 we belIeve
this negaUve
factor
likely
more. the company
recently completed. an
2ODO528.9 495.7 437.0 462.1 1923.7 carried over Into the period Just ended. As extensive
store-reset
program.. As part of
2001 518.9 535
500 411.1 2100 such, we have trimmed $0.05 from our fis- the inJtiative,
Casey's reevaluated
all mer2002 105 515
5J5
515 lZJQ
cal 2001 share-net
estimate.
(Year ends
chandise
:Items.
improved
merchandise
~KIII
EARNltlGSPERSHAREAIi
Full April 30th.) On the plus stde,
displays.
and added
seasonal
promotion
.:..
Jul.31 0cU1 Jan.31 ADdU~:'
Gasoline unit volumes are improving.
ttems.
IniUal results from this measure
24
7
76 The company took a major step toward
have been positive.
1991
.
.24
.1
.11
.
achieving
Its stated
goal of 15% gasoline .'Ibis equity
remains
ranked 4 (Below
1919
.28
.24
.10
.14
.76
I
~h
th
)
2ODO .32.
.28
.08
.03
.71 va ume Eo"~"" LAO dwing
e first quarter.
Average for Timeliness.
reflecting
the
2011 .26 .l5
.15 .11
_'5 when total gallons sold advanced 12.8%. company's weak results of late and llmJted
2002
.J!S
.J3
.17
.20
1.05 year over year. Casey's Is adding pay-atnear-tenn
outlook.
Looldng
out further.
CalQUARTBU.YDIVI>ENDSPAI)c
Full
the-pump
capability
to Its stores In hopes
however. we expect
Casey's to gamer more
endl.r lar.)1 Jun.30 SeD.3DDee.31 l'ur
of boosting gasoline volumes. The company
favorable earn..lngs comparisons.
As such.
1997 013 013 015 015 .06 currently has more than 180 stores wIth those investors
with B 3- to Syear in~
:015 :015 :015 :015 .06 th1s byfeatthureand expec:f th tsato have atoleast
v~~ent
horizon
may
find
these
350
,.
.015 .015 .015 .015 .06
e end 0
e seal year.
ther s.-.. '=Ii to be an interesting
selection
2DOI .015 .015 .02
.02
In
perfonnance
targets,
such
as a 15% In- for ca.pital
appreciation.
2001
.02
.02
.02.02
crease In in-store sales and. a reduced. op- Jennifer L. ~r
November 9. 2001
ANNUAL RATES

23 '.20
5

1.5.,

954.8
21.6%
1.11
801
26.8
37.81
2.81
dl2.9
812
1062
10.3%
13.01
11.8%
9%

-10.6 ~
26.3 I55.1 t-

Put

Past

Est'd 111-'00

Casey's

pressure

1.

ID)

(A.) F"13C8I
~

ends Api 30th rithe folbwing lh.ellfter. NexI eamilgs nIpOfI due Ilirte Nov.
In miIions, ed;Jstlld b sttk spMb.
Company'll f'-'ucll'
Strangth
Sales figteS excluderoyaty i1- (C) Nul: dl'li:lend meeliIg MrIy Dec. Next U
E) Includes only company-mmecl mres.
SIDc:1f't;Price Stl.b11t1J
the 11l'\WIU8S&om frandlised",
daI8 Feb. 1. Apprnxma. dividend pIiI~nI
Prb Growth ~
IB)PmlaIy
~b
1997;~
da1eJ: Feb. 15,
Aug. 15,NlN.15.
EamIftp PndktablltJ
CI 2l1ll. YMIe I..ile ~
Ine. AI ri#s falIWJlI. fld~1 IIIIlBiIll i$ ~
,.... 5fUa:s IMie'Itd ID be niatR .,. is plIIlided .....
nrr.-s 1:1 Illy tad. _
Tlt PUBI..IStl:R IS fl()1 RSPoHslBltORINf
RRORS OR OIIISSIONSHR[IN. T1liI pul:ikPnissh:IJ -.. _~-..
fIIIrI.ttIIIIBc ftIrllII_. No part
I
I
'.
: II:
al" 'III)' lie IIpDdlad.II!5DId. _l1li11~
~.,. JIiIIIII. *"_11
......
III1Kll. ~
1I....
..,pMid II *tnM:. .......
-*:ell pllb1

QIendar~.

a:ma and

earn.

".,,5,

B
7D
65

90
II'

DIV'D

CENTEX4 _CNST.
PROD. NYSE-exp I=' 24 ~oo
..

1IIIEUNBS
SAFElY
TCHNICAl
IVA

lI2MIl

HIOh:

Law:

YlD

15.0
10..5

12.8
B.9

45.1
29.1

41.8
33.0

0.8%
Target Price Range
2003 2004 2005

36.B
21.8

'"'"'

4,

125
'00
80

".....

.10 (l.oo-Mn.d)

so

Price

...

....
7.
LaW

SO

Ann'lTCIIII
Ribn

GaIn

l'Al"

1+21'%'
33"
+11O"ir:f 21"

8.0
4.0
2.0

traded

..
..

.
.
..

..

..

..

..

..
..
..

..
..

..

..
..

..
..
..
..

..

..

CAPITAl STRUCTURE
TobIl D.bI $.4 mil

..

"

"

..
..
..

as of eI3MO
DUlin 5 YIS $.4 mil

l T Dlibt $.3 mil.

..
..
..
..
..

..

..

..
..

.D

7.99

..
..
..
..
..
..

..

'"'19
.78

..

~:nll..iah.

:~ ~~:~

"...

'''3

IS." 'M!

13.6

339
35.1"
15.2"

~,~

..
..

38.2"

35..5"

6.1"

11.2"

10.81
11.9%

7.

15.65 SMa ..... A


Cub Flow" per Ih
I.eo 1.511 EaMIgIpwlh A.
.24
.24 Dtv'd, Ded'd ... sh C
1.65
1...
21.20
2lJ(l BoakYllulpll'lh

CIp,""""".,....

~..

1~"I<""'"... """'. "

JIJ.M
,.31
7.11

~.m

G.ID

1~"

..

13.8

..

14.14
7.2t

92
.62

14.6

..
..

6.0%

22.3

.20
1.51
18.33

21.8

221.5

5.63

.20
1.71
14.18

102

_.

182

3.71

14..5

18.3
22.3
.1.1.1

2.56

.20
.20
.61
II
,6'
9.~2 10.89 12.n

..

IIARKET CAP: S45C1 m1IUon (&nail Cap)


CURRENTPOSrrlON
1.
1999

125.9

1.89

..

..

5.61
6.~

Receivables
~errtory (FIFO)
Curntn1Ass&ts
Aa:ts Payable
Debt. Due

22.54
6.83

13.8% 25.6% 30.1% 32.1% 34.0% 40.0% 442%

..

129.9
53.2
38~~

11.02
4.13

..

96.2
54.5
38~~

13.81
3.36

166.8 194.3 222.6 239.4 297.3 336.1 418.7

49.7
43..2
33~~

10.89
2.53

..

COIIVIlOllStock 18,325,132 shs. (100'1. dCap'Q


lSoI8I4JQO
II3MIO

"

"

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
.,
..
.
6.46
6.69
..
..
.
1.59
Hili
..
..
..
.95
1.48

Ca~

30
25

.h.'"

:1::" ec:rg 5M~ ~

..

III

1--+--f-~I-------f--='I1t::;;;;;;"""!":~--------f----+--+--~
-1'1iliif",,,,,, "----:,1"'"
T

" D J F A II J J
.. ..,.
000000000
0pINt
001000000
.. ,..
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional Dec:ialons
.lOt.
1Q.W
zmM Pen:em
.. ..,
Je
'ZT
28

..
..

III

20

Insider OK_ions

15.8"
15.7'
11.9"Ao 15.1"

15.9

16.2

56.5
n.3
35.1"
36.0% 36.2%
17..5" 19.ft 23.D"

.uo

44~
18.6
1U
as
,1IB2
110
1~
36.4"
31.$% JUI
25.8%
25.1'1

25.'"

'7.""

atft:
2&.5%

15.&"
111

2S.S-.
ft

19.0%
8,.

:g~ We aredown
looking for earnings
growth
at Centex Construcdon

26.1"
5%

u.~

2051
'D.6" 31.B1
17..5" 20.6% 21.6% 31.8%

BUSINESS: Cent ... Conslructm Prod~,


Inc. prodUC8S ce-nent,
aggregates, I'8BQy mo: conaete, and gypsum wallboilrd. It opera1IIIll
four quanying alld manufadlRJg plants, and a network of 11 tBnninab b' the ~udi:Jn rI partlaOOand mnonry cement in lX, ll,
HV, Rocky Moumai1 .ea, 1100HtJrtrwn CA. ItI QI8giIM busiI'lfISS tonsiItI r:llle 1Tftng, ~uc:tDn,
11l1lisale cI c:roshed stone,

30.1"
4%

2J..5S
23..ft
n..ft
41

SIIn~

It

I~ -'- .... ~
D.pncIllion(SnIII)
Nell'rD11lll1111l
IncafMTuRdl
NPnJttMqil

Rdrm an TotaI'tlp"
R.unonStl'.E~
htalMd
10 CCInl Eq
AlDIv'dlklJlltProf

55lI
45,'"
2U

145
JiB

11.""

16.1'1
16.D%
15.5%

41

sand, arxlexpandl!ld cays and shales. The o:mpany has aggregn


deposits in Northern CA Bnd Austll, TX, BS well as gypsum wall
board plants in NY Bnd CO. Ha!l abou11, 100 emps., 305 shrhlch.
Centa Corp. owns 64.41 or com. (FY'99 1G-K).Ctnnn. & CEO:
O.G. Dagnan. Inc.: CE. Addr.: 3710 RaRJI St, S1t. 1QXl, LB 18,
Dalil', TX 75219. T8I.: 214-65lHl514. InIErnBI:WWW'.centar:.cam.

to growth in fiscal 2001. Centex currently


in has upgrades in process at two of Its
ANNUAL
RATESPut
Past EC'd"ll7'.
fiscal 2000 (ends March 31. 2001). That wallboard plants. Based on additional sup~~(pir1f11 1ITrw.._
to~~
said, conditions In the cement and con- ply and more streamlined production, we
''CashFlow"
.. 25.5% 11.0"
struction materials markets are currently
look for beuer top-line contributions along
~~
:: 33.o~
very solid, and the company will likely with wider operating margins next year.
BooIl. Value
__ 13.5% 22.0~
post another record bottom-Une tally. On Centex is making an effort to expand
_
QUAR_YSillSII"~'
.f.::," the cemen' side, despite modest selllng- its presence in the gypsum-wallboard
BV~ JunJO S;~-Dec.31 1Iar.31 ~i price decreases this year, Centex has
industry.
The company
entered into a
f7.~.p.,"","-'~7-~;7~;7+';;;;rl
relied less on imported cement to fill its Of'- back-up agreement
with Republic In1997 78.0 83.4 70.5 65.4 297.3 ders. and margins have consequently wld- dustries to purchase the latter if the pend1.
79.8 91.8 84.9 79.6 336.1 ened. With heavy demand from both com- Ing deal between RepUbliC and Premier
1191
97.2 117.8
108.4
95.3
merdal and government constn.Jctlon, the Constn..lctlon Products falls through. AI.
_
'00.3
125
115
aT 418.7
4J
2101 117
1J3
1M
46S
cement division will likely operate at full though this buyout is quite uncertain, it iI:.1 capacity this year. Offsetting
that good
lustrates Centex's commitment to leverag~
Jun~.30PER=It':'r.31
~
performance,
though,
the
gypswning Its debt-free balance s~t
for strategic
r.;~-F::::;;;-::=:;;;-=~-=::;;;+-:;;-7.rlwallboard segment has experienced more purposes. The addition of RepUbliC would
1997 .68
.80
.60 .48 2.56 serious price drops of late. hurting mar- Increase sales by about $200 million, al::
1fJ
1:~
gIns,ts will~thlnthe
8"ou Flnall
P.
y, share I'.ofmost 50% of Cen,ex,'s fiscal 1999 total. wuJe
fro
ZDOO 1.25 1.17 1.6, 1.21...
get a boost
m
e th
company s at- expect manage men to pursue 0 ther acq 2001 UZ
2.00
1.7. 1.3,
1.51 live repurchase program, which will likely
slUon opportunities in this fragmented InQUMT'fRLrDrmSmSPAllc lower Its share count by 3% this year. In dustry.
~~
lIar.31Jun.30 Stp.30 Dec.31:~r all, Centex. Is on lrack to post scUd volume These
shares. though untimely. offer
1991
gains.
thanks to strong demand.
but wide
long-tenn
appreciation
poten1197 .05 .05 .05 .05
.20 tighter margins will keep earnings growth
tial. We believe Centex's strong earnings
,.
.05 .05 .05 .05
.20 in the mJd-stngle-digit range this year.
prospects out to 2003-2005 will lead to a
.05 .05 .05 .05
.20 By bn:rroving efficiency. the company
higher eanlings multiple.
1199 .05
.05
.05
20 5h 0ul
. tain
.
Ad am. M"~.....are
Oct Over
"- 13 2000
2000
.05
.05
.05.05 .05
rnaJn
m od est
e.anunp

r.;;;;;;;::;~;:;--;;:=:,=""-::-:';:;;;;;;;~;;-Jslow

~:~%

1k~

m
""::"+""-;-===';;;'=-:===-+'0' ...

1:~

32.6
18.3

2OQJ.45 PROJEC11ON.~.

50

18.5
12.5

11~ m

IRECENT

CHOICE POINT INC. NYSE.cps

47.50T~oo 33.2(~,':r:)WR1%1.761~ Nil

IP~CE

High:

""'"

16.0
10.3

28.0
15.1

21.5
12.5

44.7
21 .

Target Price Range


Z004 2005 2006
100

48.'
29.5

....
80

...
LoW'

';-1 ""
a"

85
eo

}';:2S%

Insider Decistons
J

A.

J "

40
32

,,,

2'

20
,
Olf
"
12
'1----+--l--+-_j~-+.-_1--+-_+~""'I__~+--f_-+-_j~-+-_j--+-_+
.,'
0

.~
1 1 2 0 , 0 0 0
0,-.220000000
bS~
0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

"."

...
.. ~

.......

1yr.
3yr.

"" -.
""'"
34.3
12.~ 1"52
30."

5yr.

70.7

"" TOT. RE1'URN 11101

2002
cYAl.UElJNE PUB.~C.
11!
ChoicePoint Inc., a Georgia corporation, 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 '996
_.
..
..
..
..
.. 9.50 92.
was created through the combin.bon 01
9.71
9.75 1U5
11.15 RftIIIlunperlll
1100
..
..
..
.. 1.17
-.
businesses that comprised the Insurance
1.73
1.94
.2.25
175 "Calli now- per III
'.28
..
..
..
..
..
services Group of EquWax Ino. Choice Point
.53
.85
1.02
1.2.
.71
UI
1.10 e.rinlll per all "
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
.
.
Hi
N6 Dlv'd, Dlcf'a' pIl" III
Hi
became a separately lraded public entily f-~f-~f--':':-f--':':-f--':':-f--':':-f--;';-f-";;-f--;;..If-...;;..If-~f-~~~~~~-+---C~
..
..
..
..
.. .46
when ~ was spun oft in August 01 1997 in
-.31
.31
.J5
.3D C",'ISpondOlg p.... "
2'

..

..

1."

...
..
011-~=t=t=t=i:j:=ti=ti~~bJ~(jlitp~t~~~~~~

..

the
form of a slock
dividend.
Equilax
shareholder
received
one Each
share
ChoicePoint for every 10 shares of EquUax
common stock..

..
..
...
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..

.-

..
_.
..
..

..
..
..

2Jl
43
24.4
1.41

3.63

'.58

23.3
1.21

.I
24.0
1.37

7.70
1.15 BIlCIIIYlJulplflll
II
6.59
7
oml'ltoll
I Mil
... _
AVIlAnnlPIERdo
28.' ~~
1.89
- u. R*tin PiE ROo
..
Dttd YIoIcl

"IS
"00

ZlI

..
..
1.15
..
..
..
..
..
..
;;;; ~ , An.,
.Hi
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE as otll3OlO1
..
..
..
.. 366.5 417.3 406.5 430.1 593.5
Total Debt $21Uml. Due ... $ Y,.. $2.7 ml.
.IS
715 R.... ues (SrIiI)
1170
IT Dl:bt$2.7 miL
LTIntIII'IStS.5mil.
..
..
..
.. 18.1" 19.2% 23.7" 27.3" 29.1% JI.OlI 1J.0lI Ooonfi." .......
:l4.0lI
(LY interest earned: 13~; iJtal interest ClMlI1Ige:
..
..
..
..
21.6
37J
53.6
18.7
31.0
11.0
70.0 DopM;_llnml
'00
10.&)
(less thin 1'" of cap'!)
..
..
.. 23.3 23.' 32.1 38.8 64.' 110
..
17S
'01 No! Frofilllnill
..
..
..
.. 432% 47.7% ".0% 43.4" 40.0% 3t.7X . 01 InCOltlllu RdI
..
..
.. 6.'% 5.7% 7.9" 9.11% 10.9% 1U" l' '" Nat Pnltt Margin
..
Leu .... UnClipttaJiDd: AnnUlI rentals S11.5 rril
..
..
.. 46.9 68.9 18.6 fiJ..4 72.0
..
..
..
..
.. 1.1 95.5 191.7 1872 141.6
ZOO
Pen510n L1abiUIy None
_.
..
..
.. 196.3 121.7 159.6 202J .401.1
.1040
..
..
..
..- '1.9" 121% 10.1'" 11.4% 12.9% 17.", 17.0% Return 011Total CIp'I
Common Stock 62,871P27 shs. (100% of C.p'Q
as of 10131101
..
..
..
..
.. 11.9% 18.1" 20.1% 19.1" 16.1" '7.0lI !lOll ,,_ '" ..... E";"" '4.5ll
'15%
IIARKET CAP: $3.0 bilian (liid Cap)
..
..
..
--- 11.9" 18.7" 20.1' 19.1" 16.1" f7."" ftD% R.taInecI1DCOrDEq
'15%
CURRENT POSmoN
11ft
2000
1I3OI'D1
..
..
..
..
..
.. Nil
..
..
..
..
Hi Allv"dl1D Nat Prof
HJ
Ca~~
40.1 44.9 6O.31-=:-:;L,....,-;;c~...l--~...,...,.L.,-+-,.......L=l...,-,-,::-l=-7L==-~==~~--,-:;..j
BUSINESS: ChoaPoint
Inc.. pruYldes decision-nlamg insegments:
InstAnce S8ri1C8S,
62%; Business &

Receivables
Other
CUrT1mtAssBb;
Acd:s Payable
Debt DUll

98.8

109.7

145.3

155.8

178.3

233.0

24.5
.6.8

31.1

36.3
216.7

63.3

74.8

101.0

88.4

106.3

$4.0

16.9

01.I'JeI
Cummtliab.

ANNUAL RATES Pat


ofch .... p...
hl 11Yn..
Rewtnues

''Cash Flow"
EltMgs
DivIdends
Ekd; Value

--_
-

23.7

27.4

Put Est'd ... 00


Un..
lD'M-'M
-

11.0"
fe.OK

20.""

Nil
21.5"

Ca>
QlJAR_YRE\'EINES(I.a1
end., 1.31 Ju n. 3D S;~30 Dee. 31
1191
94.6 106.7 101.9 103.3
1199
99.6 108.0 110.5 11~0
_
146.7 146.5 151.5 146.8
2G01 155.7 162.8 In.9
171'
20112
175
185
ItS
m
ellEARNIIGSPERSHAREA
aneW 1111.31 Jun, 30 ~~: 311 DIe,31
1191
.17
.19
.18
.17
1199
.19
.21
.23
.22

Full

v.,

406.
430.1
593.
815
765
Full

r....
.71

.65

.20

2.

.28

.30

1.02

lID'
2D02

.29
.31

.31
.:JJ

.33
.41

.35
.U

1.2.

QUARTJU.YDIVI>ENDSPMl
lI.r.31 Jun. SePl.30 Dtc.31

Full
V.. ,

ealInda,

'997
1191
1199

..
..
..
..
..

2001

NO CASH DIVIDENDS
BElNG PAID

1.5&1

'"

reot8nUlil

telJigence, I1clu1:linU risk managernerrt and hud prevention m


businesses, gavllfMlenl. agencir;B, and lulividuall. Its businesses
in fllQ.lSl!ld on two prtnary man.
-1ns1r.ll1Cll Services and Business & GOWImmenl Servite!L Acquled Om Trads Ted1no1ogy
(7139~ DBT l~)'
sri l"JID1). Sold 0sbmJ GIp. (&'D1~ 2000

Government Servi2s, 38%. Has 4,200 l!fI1)Iys. ilnd 4,875 shrhkln.


Skx:k ownership: B.mn Capital GrouP. 13.9%; otrEelS and dl8cten, 9.7%; FMR Corp . 7.a% (3.01 praxy). Chairman, CEO & President: Dentk Srnlh. Inc.: GA. Adm..: 1000 AUIlnnan Dr., Alphsnrttl,
GA 30005. 1&1: nD-7S2-s>oo. IntDmet. www.dJobpoirrtinc.etm

ChoicePoint

exit
slower-growth,
lower-margined
businesses. 11lJ.s decision will likely produce considerable margin improvement
over the next several quarters. In addition.
ChokePoInt continues to reduce expenses
by lowering Its headoount. which was
down 16% through the first nine months of

bas performed well durIndeed, thJrd-quarter


eanlings (excluding a SO.33-a-share loss on
the sale of Its Osborn Group business) advanced JB% year over year. The main catalyst was the strong performance of the
company's insurance servtces businesses.
ing the recession.

Strength was seen tn all bustness lines, In- 2001. Accordingly. we have raised our
cluding personal, conunerctal inspection.
and softWare. The JmpressJve performance
also helped to more than offset the struggles of the Business & Government Servtees division (ongoing revenues were down
4% in the September interim). 1l1ls segment continues to be hurt by a weak economy, as demand for direct marketing selVtees and
Workplace Solutions
(pre.
employee screening services) has waned in
recent months.
Strong eantings gains should continue in ZOOZ.despite the outlook for a sluggtsh domestic economy. While revenue
growth is expected to moderate next year.
recent cost-control initiatives should help
ChoicePolnt deUver approximately 25%
sharenet growth in 2002. The recent sale
of Osborn Group to LabOne in August was
the flnal step in the company's strategy to

2002 eamings estimate


by a nickel. to
$1.60 a share.
Meanwhile.
ChoicePoint
expects
to
boost revenues through the introduclion of several
new products.
New
procluct offerings include: Current Carner,
a preexisting insurance coverage database;
CholceTrust, an online verification service;
and DEBTOR Discovery. which Is used for
locaUng delinquent debtors. CholcePotnt"s
new product pipeline augurs well for
organic revenue growth over the 3- to 5year pull.
This equity is ranked to outperfonn
the market
averages
in the year
ahead. The recent uptick in the stock's
price. however. leaves this issue's 3- to 5year appreclat:lon potential modestly below
the Value Line median.
William G. Ferguson
December 14. 2001
ftJct. spits.
F&uln~ st......glh
B"

(A) Baed an dlrted sh.es. Excl. ~~(IJ)


Includes iltangiblas. At 913001: $453.9 (e) In mili:lnl, adjusted for
gllllnl(bsslls) per shinl; '97, Tot!; '98, 7~; '99, IfIiI.; S7.22JsIwv.
1 "00, (32j); 01 111, (U); Q2 '01, t3:)
Next egs.1epClr1 du.1ate January.
o 2001, Vabe I..JIe ~
Inc:. iii tiIIIs ~.
FldIIIl ~
i, otIiIined Inm SOIIIte5 t*wed ID tie nIiIbIe n ~Jnriled wI/I:lUI ~
TlI[ PlIIUSHR ~ 111)1R~PONSlBL[lORIiNY [RJlOIlSOR OIISSIOHSHRflN.
III ..,. lit Rp'Dduad. md:I. sa:nI II ~
iI MJ ,.....
'*tmIiI: II abf ....

n.s ~

II

ned

~1D::Iy"'~
~

II

-..rtdiRg IIlJ ~

--......
II 1IlIGcn:

III lIlY tnI.


ciaL i1. ....... u.. Napm
IeIIi2 II paIU1

fII*Ib.

ICCII'
Ilpann
Stoct:s PriCil Stability
Prtc:e Grvd
,.,. ...
hminp
PradictablitJ

1:8

75
100
NMF

To subscribe call '800833-0046

DARDEN RESTAURANTS NYSE"DR,I~gr 33.921~m18.5(~:) ~~ 0.98 ~ 0.2%


"TIAEUN[SS

SAFETY

3 ,...,.,."
2
n/Wl

1ECHMCAL
BETA .15 OllO

High:
Low:

Rar.ed 4IMll

12..1
9.3

14.0
7.5

12.5
6.8

18.9
11.8

23.4
15.6

27.0
12.4

34.3
19.0

rUI)

ZOO4-lI6 PROJECTlIN.S_
Ann'ITotII
Price
GaIn
Rnn
45 (:"~5'%'
8"
LoW
30
1~10%1 .-",
Insider Deeistons
JF."MJJAS
.. ..,
000000000
o,IIM 200011500
.. Sill 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 0
IRlititutianal Decisions
!IIIIh

.. ...,

e..

112

1QJ.l

133

I""
I

1,1'

2m... Pel'Cllnt ".0

:::'1 !7~g:~~ ~

1yr.

........
........

:I yr.
5 yr.

2l!I1.2

"" TD1. RET1JRIII "111

127 ,he.... 12.0

'.0

traded

16.9
94.3

1l.S
30.4
70.7

-..

William Dalllen opened the first Red lob- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ~VALlIELIlEPIRl~c.
.. 20.03 201 20.13 23.29 26.17 30.29 34.26 37.25 s.I_pwlhA
..
..
..
ster restaurant in Lakeland, Florida in 1968.
aJ.l
..
..
..
.. 1.54 f.61 115 1.62 1.97 z.",
That company was s~d kl General Mills in
'-l5
2.93
3.~ 'CuII F1olI"
..
..
..
..
1.31
1.59
1.13 E.mng .......
1970. the Dliie Gallien, a new concepl de.96
.67
.3S
.68
.75
..
..
..
..
..
]ll
veloped by Dalllen, opened its first
.06
.10
.1IlI
.08
.08
.01 Dlv'dl DKfd Jill' III C.
.1IlI
restaurant in 1982. In May 1995, Dallien be- f---....:,:-l--....:,:-l--....:,:-l--....:,:-l--m-l--nrl--r;;-l--To-f---'iilhii-f---iiff+-"'"-tF;:;;=.:~2?~;=-+---,~
..
..
..
..
Jl
2.20
3.03
150 Cap'l SfIII'ldklllplnh
lOO
.79
217
f.36
1.04
..
..
..
.. 7.<3 7.15 7.01 713 7.30
1.86
8.82
1D.20 Bod'. Vllue per III
flU
came an independent publicly held c0mpa-

P'"''

~=:+=::::+=+=~!$.~~~~~~~~~p~~~:
..
".
..

ny when General Mills distributed all Darden


sham fo its sharehoidels. The inlemalJy ideveloped Bahama IJnJeze concepI opened
~s first un~ in Or1ando in 1996.
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE as of 11211D1
Total Debt $518.6 mill. Due In 5 Yrs $302.7 mi.
LT Debt 5516.0 mill. LT lnIernl $37.0 ml.
(LT irtemsl earned: 9.4Jl; lolal i'rlrftst CCMlrlge:

9.""1

(33~ of CopQ
Lea_, UncapltaDDd Annual rentills 15111 mil
Penalan Uablltty $2.8 mil. in '01 II'Ii!nIIS $2.5 miD.
niX!.
Pfd Stock None

Common Stock 1'6,5411,151 SM. (67"% of cap,)


.5 of 1011101
"ARKET CAP: S4.a bilioallUd Cap)

CURRENT POSITION

2IlOO

2001

11IIlLi
Cash
Assets

26.1

61.8

35.8

Receivables

28.0

32.9

24.1

142.2
94.2
290.5

148.4
85.0
328.1

171.7
79.5
311.1

Inventory (FIFO)
Other
CUlrem Assets
AI:ds P8yilble

Due
Other
Cumml:Uab.
Debt

!l2M1

140.5 156.9
117.5
14.7
348.9 382.7
606.9 554.3

..
..
..
..

..
..

..
..

..

--

..
..

f5

157.1

1""
1.02

.96

5
2'1

1>9

1.5
17.5
Jf
.7~

1 5.

19.0
1.1IlI

139
.90

.. ..

..~

IlIIIZIlI'I'

II

""Ii MII'!~

13.6

1>0
1.00

J(~

.n

R_P/ERdo
Avg Mn'l DiY'd Y""..ad

..
..
~ ~
n .9~
-'"
2542..0 2137.0 2963.0 3163.3 319111
51110
3287.0 :K5ll.1 3101.3 .0212
10.2% 11.4% 11.91(,
. 11.3% 11.8% 11.4" 10.0% 10.11"
lUll
9,'%
..
99.5 115.1 124.7
115
125.3 130.5
126J
135.5 1301.6136J
21.NII_W
197.0
173.1
111.6 118.5 123.1
It5
13S.3
101.7
54J
108.3 1192
f--....:,:-I--.'.~I-+.;;-h;:T.i---~;c.;..+-.;-;..hi;-'"""'~f-.'iT.'-f--iiT.i-h:iT.-t-..~-E=~2--I-.i~
31.9%
.. 37.0~ 3lla 36.'~
3O.0ll
36.8% 27.9% 33.8~ 34.8" 35.4% 3'-6% 35.DS Inccne fu RIll
IHtProIt ....
0% 4J~
-.
4.4" 4,31 .a
3.9"
3.7% f.7% 3.'%
3.4"
f------'+="+T.i.ml--:'''''"-t.~;+~'rt+.i:;;;-i-i:'''''-t.~;+:iii;Tl-..i~+7.iO;_f.ii'':i='=;:::~=:_I_':;T.:C_1
dZllll5
d316.4 d2261
d209.1 d157.3 d'~2 d161.2
d91.5
..
.. dfll5.'
dZ5ll w
, Cop1 (""",

4.0
314.1
511.9
304.1
<110
3.9 303.0 3011 3132 310.6
500
1""
(lnoII)

1211.4 1401.3 1174.0 f222.6 10612 1019.8


11/10
96<.0
1175"".-_1
1
960.5 10352

9.8'11.
14.01. Rnm on TCItIICIp'I
13.4'1<0ll
01~
8J~
B.7"
B.~" 01H"

9.8%
19.0% 1l5% R.... on Shr. E~
lUll
8.7% 91~
10.0% 1~.O%
9.7~
l<0ll
-.
-.
9.8%
18.1% tto'" RI1ained tD COlI Eq
91~
8.7'10
B.7"
B.B" 12.9"
11~
8~
6%
'" AI "1v'1II .. Not Pro!

--

'''''' '" "_don I"""'

......."

1.,,,

f"

"

f-;;;=S-::=!::::=!==-';::=':-::;:-:::!:-::=~~""';;::;':-:='=:;-::;~:i:'::':::;';::=-i:7-:::;--;:f=:::-i
BUS"ESS: Darden ReslaLJr.lnts, Inc. (spun ol'I' tern General Mils BBQ. Co. owns most of b si18s and Iiea. lill rest. "01 depree.
5/95) is hi worIcfs ~
casu;,1 dinMlg opfDtlf, wiIh 1,136 ooitl
... 49 U.s. mtes.nd 37 unb m C8nad1 (afo 8101).Opl!DtellWD
map challiS: R8d l..oba8r (saatlod; 660 units; avg. dleek, $14.50)
and The OIMl Garden (Italian food; 480 unill;avg. check,112.00);
also operates 23 8eINmJ B1Hze unls and' 10 Snd.y!iolJrls

171-0
2.6
3842
55708 Darden

,.tI!l: 5.1"- Has abt. 128,900 ~.;


34 .... 2 slWJIch. d RICllRI.
Alr&. Express ReU1I Sva;. owns 8.8% d axnmon; Bm:IiI)'I
GIoMllnvesbs, 7.6%. OIJ. and di". CM'll 4.6% (M!1 Proxy). Chai"man & CEO:Joe R. lee. Inc..:FL Addr.: 590Dlake Elenor Drtte,

ORmda, FL 32809. Tels.: 407245-4000.W.tl: www.d5den.a:rn.

from $
r $ 1.10Restaurants'
major
dining timate
1.80. to a range
0
concepts have produced. solid sales in- $1.85. In addition to the sales improveANNUAL
RATES Pat
Put Est'd ... D1 creases
despite
the
disruptions
ments dted above. in a difficult operating
U-1f1)
caused by a declining
economy and environment. we expect margins to widen
"Cash Flaw"
-9.5% 12.~
the war on terTOrism. Both Red Lobster on the strength of favorable seafood prices
Earnings
-12.5% 15.~
and The Olive Garden carne out of Septem- and tight cost controls. Share net wtll also
1~:~
ber in good shape. and followed lhat up be enhanced
by an aggressive shareFbc3l
QUARma.YSALfS(S~"
Fill
with an impressive sales perlonnance in repurchase
program, which included a 1.8!l'iIf"PerNDY.PerFeb.hr IIIJ'PeI
October, bolstered by successful promo- million share buyback. In the first quarter.
E
Ki::ii--F.-~c:..:;'iii'i"'iiiT-~rr+"i'i'!:1
tlons at each chain. Indeed. Red Lobster's At the end of August., the remaining au1998 609.3 "5.3
8f1.2 921.2 3287.0 "30 shrimp
for $9.99" promotion helped
thorlzatlon stood at 10 rnI1Ilon shares. At
1199 886.0 791.2 866.9 914.0 3458.1drive October's same.restawant
sales gain thls juncture. we tentatively look for earn929.'
848.2 917.5 fOO6.2
of 7% to 8%. with customer traffic rising lngs to reach $2.05 In Ilscai 2003.
ZOO, 018.2 932.0 988.6 1082.4 ~22 796 while.
at the same
time.
The Olllle We think Darden
Is well positioned
to
21102 061.5 9IlI lD55 ilKS 42.S
f-;;;:=-cF"";""';;;;;'-;;;:;;;;""'';;;=-A;:';--!
Garden
was
scoring
a
same-unit
sales
tn
gain
market
share
in
the years ahead.
~=I
EARNIIGSPER
9lAREAlli ~
crease of 5% to 6%, underscored by a 2% to The strength being exhibited by the comEndil "ug.PerNav,PlrF.b.PlrllayP,
V.r
3% gain In guest count, thanks to the tall pany's major rnposltioned casual-d1n1ng
.16 ,05 .20 .Zf
.67 end of another successful "Never-Ending concepts. Red Lobster and The Olive Gar1119 .2<
.11 .ZI
.33
.96 Pasta-Bowl" olTering for $7.95. As a result. den. should be bolstered by the rollout of
2000 .35 .18
.36 .C
1.31 we expect Darden's second-quarter results the Bahama Breeze and Smokey Bones
2IOt .46 .24 .40 .50 1.59 (to be reported December 13th) to include BBQ rormats, both of which have been
2D02 .51 .Z'
,4f
.51 1.13 The Olive Garden's and Red Lobster's 29th well received since their initial openings.
CalQUARTERLYDIVI:IEHDSP,wc:.
Full and 16th consecutive quarters, respective- These
shares
are timely
for the year
.ndar lIar,31 Jun.3D S'II.30 D.cJ1
Yur ')y, of same-unit sales growth. We look for
ahead but, at the current quotation, they
'197
.04.04 .06 share net to advance to at least 50.28. provide very limited appreclation potential
1911
.04 _.
.04 .08 compared with $0.24. earned a year ago.
to 20042006. based on our current eam1.
..
.04 -.04 .08 We have broadened
our fiscal ZOOZ Ings scenario over that time horizon.
.08 (year ends May 26th) share-net
es- Maurice Levenson. CFA December 14. 2001

r.;='~=;:;;--;;:-:i-=-;;:C;-:;:;;:;-;;;:;:1

g::U1

11Y11._5:~% 1D::a:

=~:. ::

1t~:

._-r

'v.....,'

!;~l3

1.

= ~: .::: ::

(A)Fl!ICIIl
)'MI' endsonthe Iasl Sundar
i1 Mil)' ......
shBres.. Exd. nonr&etMIg charges b
eC) Di't'"ds. peid senHnllUilly.
Nut div"d. mtg. CamplUIY's Finane.' SbwIgl:II
d the Cllendaryear. (B) BiI9lId on iIVII3ge rertucUing _lid _sse! ~iImenl::
115, 37; aroundMarch 22nd. Goes 8lIl in earl)' April.
SlDck's Price stabiltJ
Ihins tmlugh '97; diJut8d.tW. QulItBrIy egs. '96, 28j; '97, 93. Exd. IXlIW'IlCIo'Rlg gilll: '99, owd. PlII)m8Ilt da1es: Mar 1, New. 1. Div"d.
PricaGrowthPlirsStenc8
may not ~
tl annuallDtaJ du8 to dJanges iI 3;; "00, 3j. NexI egs. mpcri due late MoIrdt
,af .. eAuernl pltn
iabI9. 'D) III milOns.
P18dIet8bi1tJ'
o ZCIlI1. VIlle Iile NIi5IIiIQ. lilt. AI riIIIU re.wIeII. r.~ .... _is CItIUined r- !IMIZS bIiewd 10 be ...
IIIId is ptMled
...-:s l:( any bid.

THE PU8I..lSK:R IS NOT RE$PONSB.lORIMY


ERRORS OROIiIlSSlONS
HRIN. Thif.~.*ElJb
!Ilb5crbn_.~iIIIlnlII-.
No,*,
I

"
,II.
af llU)' lie reprcDaIL -*. 'IIIftd II ~
...
1I1lh1 ....
III
III ~
1IlJ,r.-lI1i ---.:
fIIllIc*In. ..a III fIIOdld

8++

80

60

_EamInp

111)',........

cnal" ~

50
,
II'

H;g"'
Low:

22.~
11.1

26.~
14.1

13.3
8.9

22.0
10.0

22.'
1~1

21.4
12.5

16.8
12.8

16.4

17.7
10.9

10.2

3Q.4
10.8

LEGENDS
17.aICr.tl}~stl

53.3
22.0
-1

... 1".,

95.2
304.7

....

-4.6
24.2

f---

2169

642

"" TOl: RETUR111OID1

"" "..,.

ma
1 yr
3 yr.
5 yr.

1~1_1~1_1_1~1~1~1~1~1~

1~

,n

1N

1~

l~

115

~8

.
.11
1~

.
j6
,.

.00

.10

.12

.16

.16

.20

~1

m
m
zu"
11.1

m7
1JJJ

23.55 23.63 23.87 ".'"


22.,
183
22.U "..

1~

1~

1~

..

..

~
t~

'"""

l>.'

1.~ 1M

1~

1~

.6"

.1%

.8'

.8%

"."

lJJ

1M

~~

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 cVALUElJjfM.~~


114-46
6.50 6.79
7.20
1.91
8.90
1.90 10.95 S11l1plnh
1115
Us
1.34
1.69
2.2.5 155 nCashfluw"'f*M
175
M
1.12 1.31 122
.83
.66
.73
.75
1.01
1.30
1.55 Ean*lgi pi!' Ih It
1.50
~

.20
13
14
2.
.24
.2.
.24
.14
.2' Dlv'dl DKI't:1pi!' It! II
.311
.29
.38
. ,
.33
.34
1.00
1.00 Cap'lSplndlngplfM
1.15
.17
~
~
~
6.10
6.79
7.33
7.57
8.16
9.10
10.00 BooIlValuep'l'Ih
1U5
J1J.OU
l>." '7.05 ~7.1!/ U.4J Zf:.fl. Z7.J:l z7.t14 U.JfJ 2115 cnmon5hlWlltg"
Zl..7
18.8
1H
17.8 ~~~_
AygAnn'IPlt:Kdo
ZU
17.0 20.3 Zl.6
.98
.99
1.16
.......
R_PIERdo
1.15
1j1 1~ 1.35 131
1.9% 1.3%
AvgAnn'lDiY'dY'1IId
."'
1.9" 1.3% 1.311.611.1%

4M

.20

tn
'".11
,1.1

1~

1.1% 1.B"

5~

.-11:1--

5lJO
20.'"
Total DlbI $14.4 mil. Due tn 5 yurs $14.4 mil.
4.0
4.1
18.8
DIplKlIian 'hll
25.0
LT DRbI None
28.3
Nil PIolll(~I
77.8
19.3
17.3
30.9"4 27.0%
30.3%
InCOlltTuRl1l
21.0"
Los .... Unc::lpttallDd Annual rentals $1.8 mil
11.4"
.....Pnll1l1arpn
11'"
21.5"
16.n;
52.4
55.5
104.8
f'" W_.C4p'IInlII
2f8
-HI Lonll-Ternt Debt ($niI1
Nil
Pfd Stocl None
2Z7.0
,..,
I~i
458
I06J 119.5
12.41
15.5% R.twn on TGtIICap'
17.0%
1lll
14.5"
Conunon Stoct 28,259,470 Ihs. (100%of Cap1)
12.4%
11", AllturnonShr.EWIw 11.01
18.1!.
1. 51
IlARKET CAP: $1..2 b1n1on (Mid Cap)
14.41 11.1114
9.5"
115% Rminedill ClIIIl
Eq
1111%
CURREHTPOSITJJN 1.
2000 913OR1
20\
23\
23\
1'" AI Oiv'ds .. Ntll'n>f
""
IlIILLJ
CaSh
Assets
1~.s
26.~
26.8' "===-==",=::=':::-:--::o---::c-'=--::-:'=---':-::-:::-:c:='::-:::::c:'::::-;;:;}-;=-:=-;:-;-;:-;:==i
BUSINESS: lJiIgn05l:c Producb. Cc.poratim lIeYeqls, manuflcMay 1992. Fmllgn business, 76% of 1IOsales:;R & D. ".B%. "00
CAPrrAlSTRUCTUREuofll3CMl1

90.1
29.'%

~e:,~IFOI
~~ ~j

Other
CUlT8nt Assets
Accts Pa)'llble
Debt Due

3.5
132.4
15.8
15B
12.0
43.6

3.5
158.3
25.0

176.8 186.3 198.6 2161


221% 2... \ 20.9\ 23.4\ 20.6"
4.2
5.9
6.1
1.4.4
15.3
19.4
16.2
229
181
20.2
20.'
14.2
16.1
242
29.0% 26.2'
25.81 21.7'
29.11 2UI
30.'"
13.01 9.81 10.31
9.51
13.315 13.210 15."
55.0
60.7
10.6
81.6 83.0 81.0
88.8

_.

206.9
135.1 163.-4 18>3 186.3 2061
123.3
12.~I 14.8% 12.6% 9.81 10.1% 9.~
11.5"
12.61 9.81 10.11
9.91
11.5% 12.41 14.8\
1.2%
6.11
8.5" 11.1' 9.01 6.31 6.81
37~
31~
28\
36\
33\
32\
106.8
20.9%

126.5
20.8%

159.6

Curnlnt Liab.

12.9
53.5

I""A

-~

nl
.. ~~

..

plications relate to the clmect.ion and manaalll'l'Klnt of txmon:Il dison::Itn, inf8cbous diseases, canan, IUbltlnoe .txsa, ~iIs,
dil!lbeles. .lI8mill and osleopc.msis. Acqui'8d am. DiagnostEs,

26.4

1~.~
19.2
60.0

Fortunat

r.;='~=;;---:::o-==~;::;;:;-;;;7.;;;ididn't

~g:~~]~ 1:~

= ~~:~:~:~:~:

= .: .: .: .:~ll
:~:

If'lereaftflr.

ay.

urMIgs hough

"elCl eam.Jgs

1996;

ftlpml due

I;rfe

Janu-

l'B)

21D
2"'''
15.11
,...
30.5%
11'"
f2D
Nil
HII
15.0%
1101
1.15%
fIll

315
"-'"
27.0
41.8
30.",
1U"

9IIos11nlll

_Ii.,.;,

"',:Eaum

an
."
. ;
'Ml
P
10.7% (3101 proxy). President & Chief EJl&cu1i'te otflall": Wil:IuIel
Z"Mlling. Inc.: Cat Addnlss: 5100 W. 96th st, Los AngeIIlI, CA
9OG45.Telephone: 310-&45-8200. Intvmet www.dpcnb.tuTl.
I

r .

new
group
0 lRUDunoassays
may
accelerate
growth.
DP has introduced
tests that constitute the first full panel for
allergy testing on an automated random
access analyzer. These kits can change allergy testing
from a tlme-consum1ng,
labor-Intensive lab service. requiring dedJcated
Instrumentation
and
specially
A

~fuJa:.=:~~
~~e
;:~tst~o
cause an individual

_ar.S1 JIIIl.SO Sta.30 Dec.31::;~ ;:~:en~gJa~~


,.
46.1 49.2 48.8 52.5 196.6 eum or local currencies were usable. Next
,.
50.5 54.6 53.7 57.4 216.2 month, new euro-denomlnated. bills and
2010 59.2 63.6 60.6 64.5 247.9 coins become legal currency, and the former currendes
w1U. over the ensuing
EARNliGS PER
SHARE
It
months, be withdrawn from circulation.
''J~:;'-t'M",."r.3;;I,---,J~un!O.3G~~So!p;:'
..:30~.''o.c.!7.,,,,+-y,,F:'~"<-lr DP does most of its business abroad and
its intra-Europe cWTency risk will be
11911 .15 .19 .20 .19
.73 e1lmlnated by the change. The complete
,.
.15
.20
.18
.'12
.75 implications
are not yet clear, however.
2000 .23 .25 .23 .30 1.01 But the important matters are clearly
2881
.29
.34
.31
-"
1.38

DP'
ZOO2 .35 .J
.35 .45 1.55 gmng
sway. TIt e to tal num brIM
er 0
QUARTERLY
DMlENDS
PAl).
MULITE
automated testing systems in the
t~
lu.31 Jun.30 SeD.3D DtcJ1 ::~ field exceeded 6.700. following 268 shJpments in the September period. Thlrd1117
.06 .06 .06 .06
.24 quarter deliveries included 149 model
,.
.06
.06
.1Ii
.06
.24 20005. which use test kJts faster than the
original model. The company is primed for
2101 :06 :06 :06:06
continued sales and profit growth.
.~

(A) p~

247.9
24.'~

~=:~Ia=:~=~:r:n~
=&rl~:~4~~~~L~:a~

~:~
3.8

""'i69.'i

15.6

103.5
23.5"

el
y. the
telTOrist
attacks
hurt Diagnostic
Products.
The
ANNUAL RATES Put
Put Est'd "a.'oo company ships the bulk. of its output by
afdlllgl(plrlll) Inn.
!Tn.
to'lCo'll'
Sales
12.0%
10.0%
13.07'
air. and the closings of domestic airports
''Cash FIaw"
7.0'4 10.5% 16.5" caused certain shipments to be delayed..
~~
3.5'" 4.0,," 20.0" But the impact on sales was not material.
Book Value
And it's likely that eurodollar
ndes
QUAR1BlL'SALS~1IILI
changes won't affect DP"s fortunes
Other

1.5

DP r~U:bs~tial1:
assay kJt is needed for
each allergant to be investigated. Pending
observation of the market's reactlon to this
method of allergy testing. Its impact Is exeluded from our fiscal forecasts.
Diagnostic
Products
stock is not on
the bargain
counter. These shares are
ranked 1 (I-Ughest) for Timeliness. but
their 3- to 5-year appreciation potential is
now only modest. But, when the importance 0 r the all ergy test kI ts b ecomes
clearer. DP"s 2004-2006
sales and earnings
projections could be boosted enough to increase the stock's Target Price Range. Untl1 then, however, the new development
represents
a speculative aspect of this
medium-risk Safety stock.
Lucien

VirgjJe

meeting .bou1 January ~ (C) In milim, adiJsied lor Ad. split.


toes eJ.-diYidend ll.btul Januay
9. Appn:almn dividriuldpa,menl dates: February 16,
May 18, Augusl17, frkMmber 17.
Ne:d d.~nd

CI Zttll. YIIue li'Ie I'uIli5hiIII. Int. AI rigIU re5II'IfllI. Fadull ....


is ottIftd h1lm SM[ft ~
THlPUBUSl-f.RISIIOT Il:[SPoHsBt.E.lORNf(rRRO~OROWSSIONSHE.REIN.
Thif.~i5~Iar~s_.alll
af , be IIpVIdacIll. mati" -.:I 11'---'
il ., ,.am. ~
CI__ IlnL CIu.I b ~

1"IIIIiIMe..., 5 fII'O"Ded ......


~
_cilL
II .-.g ..,
piIIBl CId!lcmIi:: ......
fa

be

II ~
Old.
use.Naprorl.
serw::e II prudUtL

December
FIn.nellll Strength
Stock'a Pr1ce StalllIitr
Price Growth Persls1llllce
Company's

Earnings PreclcblblltJ

7.

2001
S++
65

30
70

__
I

I'.

: II:

II'

TW.EUNESS

SAFErI
TECHNICAl.
.10

IV,

2 I!.Ir.e:I i'2!lItIl
3 ...'"".
4 l_""""

High:
Low:

r:

~~.

hdcMP! fl'Cf'SSiOrI
.. 11
I

'I

;g (~~~l
~~~

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989


60.29 36.88 36.90 41.68 .5.87
2.57
.54 2m
224
251
1.60
d.11
1.28
1.65
2.Cl5
.
261
127
1.05
.84
5.13
8.35 9.H7 11.22 1253 14.11
5
5
.55 47.1 47.
1",
"'.
.~ .68 1.00 1.57

,3, ".

1990
50.&7
3.17
1.95
.10
".16 5.47
15.67 17.53
5927
10.9
169
1,(18
1.3
.3% 1.1'4
3216.0
9.7%
66.8
133.7
21.0'4
4.2'4
411.7
812.1
1041.1
9.0%
12.81
10.0"
22"

Pen.ICNI Llabllily None


PlWfenect Siock None

CammDnStock 55,8S2,OO9.hs.
u of 71ZJi01
(38% of Cap'Q
MARKET CAP: S1.1blDlon (Mid Cap)

CURRENTPOSrrlON

119t

zaoo

caJ!".1!:l...
"",.....,......

42.4

28.4

Receivilbles

600.7

583.8

5~~~~;

CumllltAs!lets
A.ccb. P,yable
Deb!: Due
Other

43.B

50.1

30.9

33.8

57.3
28.1

1212.9
295.5

&l1M!1

1140.9
212.3

1142.11
275.0

45.0

31.fl

'

",

iIii
'.

3.45 3.68 4.03


16.85 17.70 18.17

1.5,
8.49

1.83
9.18

214
11.04

102
1.23
1.31

24J
1.63
1.41

21.4
U3
1.3%

182
1.14
1.01

159
.92
.9%

3430.5 3841.6
8.0% 8.4%
1326 147.7
599
679
10.9% 23.0\
1.J'
1.8%
4822 6109
1158.3 1554.5
1052.1 1080.6
3.9% 4.3%
5.71,4 6.3%
3.""
4.1'
010.. 35'

3803.8
8.3%
113.7
875
23.3'
2.3%
480.3
896.0

3315.5
B.7'
109.6
922
21.4%
2.1%
335.5
987.7
1001.0
6.0'
9.2%
6.81,

26"

320
1.93
12%

263
10.90
57.05
13.3
.1.21
.9%

3&40.3 4336.1 44242


8.5"
82'
7.4"
111.1 1121 1221
130.0 1602
96.1
18.0" 18.0% 30.01'
3.4'
3.7,
2.2'4
4639 406:7 365.'
903.8 1S4.8 1116.4
508." 549.6 666.5 621.8
8.9% 11.0'4 13.2'
171\ 23.7'4 24.0% 15.5'
12.5' 1~.311ft20.5' .11.6%
m 18' 15% 2ft,

7.-4'

e~~ Ilr.Per Jun.PlrS,p.PerDec.P,r~~

~~

Dole Food hired Boston Consulting Group


Co!- If'ar.PerJun.PerS.o.PtrDec:.P.
QIIARTalLT
SAL!S~oI.)'
F."
t 0 stu d y all' .aeets 0 f th e companys
'busl
y..,
... "
ness. Boston Consulting Group's opera.
1198 0120 1164.0 1209.' 1038.4 442A.2tlonal and flnandal review Is expected to
1.
18U 1316.6 1412.1 11435 5060.6 last
untll the end of 2001.
In the
2000 126.3 1236.01338.3 1062.501763.1 meantime, we are calling fur Dole Food to
20111 111.1 1227.1 fDIJ f05U m5
2002 1a5 1225 132D 1010 4710 ~st a 20% to 25% earnings gain In 200t.
ARNNGS PERSHAREA.
{Note:Th1rd-quarter eam:lngs were expect.1198

.38

1191

.52
.65

.66
.81

1.35

:~

:~

.26

d.13
d.03
.04
d.02 d.12
::

::

QUARTBlLYDJ'r"I)BI)SPAI)c

lar.31Jun.3D Sep.30 Dee.31

c~;l:;e1s

284
9.53
55.
21J
1.24
1.5'

46.3
-44.3
-!l1.2

..

10.6 26.3
".1

219
1.1.
U. Cop'ISpoodln,..-",
9.93 11.20 12.15 BooIlYllulpll'lh
55.84 55.10 ~.OII 0lInMlIl5hloutlt'g
11.6 ~~
__
A'llAlon'P"_
.n :;; ...
_
RIIIdM PIE Rdo
2.6\
.
Av;Aln"lDtY'dYilld

5060.6
5.8%
131.9
67.8
18.1%
1.3%
300.7
1285.7
532.0
6.2%
12.7'
11.5'"
33'4
CooIte.

!lyr.

VLAIITIL
IDI

ma

"763.1 '7~
Otl s.Iu($llil) A
6.9'4 7.0'%
7.f"
136.5
132
f25 DlplCidonllnll)
73.9
910
If..... _WI
30.7% .12.0% 32.01 InanITaR.II
1.6'4 f.'"
NIIPrDIlI.
355.9
405
3J5 WIlIkin.CIp'I,,"1I)
1135.6
W
W LongT_Dlbt(WI
554.8
.25
715 Shr.
7.2% 1.5%
t5% R"'DIlTaI.II~'
13.3' 1~
11'" RIkIrn l1li str. 1IUItv
~.3'4 11.0% 11'"
RlbiMdtD Can Eq
30"
25%
21" AlDh'dlIoNIIProf

2.2"

115
11.15
51.00
lU
.10
1.2%
5355
7.5%
U.
159
3105
2.'"
525
I5lI
fOlO

9.0"

f.n
11.5%

11'1

oI'f Caste & Coote, Inc., 12195. Has about


61,000 EITlPbyees,: 11,000 sb:kIlok:\ln. 2000 dep-.
11.11%.
David H. Nurdock
23.S% of carmon u.&s; nlITIiIni1g 0Ifs.
& dR., mslhlln
'%. (oW1 PrDJy). ChRm8n & CEO: Devi:I H.
IAUI"doti Inc.: Delilwin.
Addr.: One Dole Dtiv8, WsstlillkB ~,
CA 91362. Tel.: 818-879-6600.lrrBMI:
www.dDIeJ:am.
Inc., 12/95. Spun

me:

own.

.10
.10
.10

.10

.10

.10

.10

.10

.10
.10

= :~~:~~:~~

1.10 noted that roughly 80% of these savings


have already been ldentlfled and should be
~:
laid out by year's end. Dole expects to save
$75 mlllIon in 2002, with the rema.lnder to
.40 be realized by 2003. !be banana and
.40 fresh-cut flower operations are the prl.40 rnary targets of the cost-cuttJng initiatives.
.40 Dole plans to streamline its logistics and

(A) rs. yr.ends SlrI. ne-est 12131;Sept. per. d13;"80, 8; '92, d$1.29; '93, 30; '85, 54;
has 18 m..cthtn, 12. From 111-'85, ended
"811, d61; '98, dSt66; '39, d!; '01. d2-4t!.
3rd Sill iT Jun (8) Dl ...,. Excl. IIBI nome. EJd. disc:. op&.: '95, dU6t Nexlegs. fJll due
iIIIms:'84, d$Z.34; '85, cf70;'BII. rm.; 117,
IIiiIt8 Jan. (C) Div'ds: 3-2% and.111 shs. of $.90
2lD1, YIbt IiIe f'utlIsIIiII:L kIc. M tVD 1'e5IIWId. FMUlIllRrill
is atuiIIed frU1111DIIa'S.-..m
10 be

}::~es~~~:

~~~e:nin1lk~~
marketing support for new products.
Dol' ess t oc k lJIBycanymore
risk than
its Safety rank of 3 (Average) Implies.
In recent years, DOL's fundamental trends
have not been overly enmuraging, as longterm debt has skyrocketed. The highly leveraged balance sheet. coupled with its
large capital ~ditures.
has aimped

sale of Its beverage


division should yield
pnx::eeds of roughly 5250 million. much of
which wiU be used to reduce the heavy
debt burden.
This
timely equity offers
worthwhile
long-term
appreciation
potential.
Too,
our earn.lngs projections may prove to be
conservative depending on the success of
the ongoing cost-cuttlng initiatives.
'NlIl/am G. Ferguson
November 9.2001

conv.pre[ n 116(11ld8emlKI88).

Goe!I ex
~~amp,ny's FIIlaIldlJ snnlQl
llbout F_b. 25. Appr'tP:. div'd peymenl diltes:
S1ock'a Prb sta!tl1ty
mil-Milrch,mihlune, mid-Sept.,ilnd I8iIrIy
Prio Gnrwth PeBiItInm
Dee. (D) R8I11ISt.ksr1!iI
spun aIf, 12195.
earnings P~1ly

IIIl a pII'i:IeI ~........-s


Gllny U'od.
=_cilLiIII,"",,_.Noplll
~...-.g.,. fI'i*II
~
...a. pDdIId.

~
lHEPUlIlJSK"RlSfIlTRl~sel.f.}QRM'f[RRORSQRCNSSIONSHEREW. TJIil,~a*idyb'.maan-'II
~ 1-,. IIr .....
mdl. sand 1II'1I'I5IIIiIIllI
priald.1I!aft:: III alia ....
oed b ~

ill..,.

supply chain, ratlonallze banana productlon in Asia, and divest any unprofitable
items in its fresh-cut flower
business.
Upon completion. half of the savings is expeeted Lo reach the bottom line. whlle the

~:tl:eS2~!mllion ~Id:
::e~~S::tra~:d
~~ ~d~~~ ~
debt burden by year's end. The pending

1.06 In annual
savings. Dole Food hopes to
1.19 achieve this goal through
the stream1lning
~~
of unprodueuve assets. Management has

P.:=-+==7.::....:"""~=~-='='+-'.:;:'"'

1.

3 yr.

~~~~tl:~~~
~~~u:n:r

d:ue~r

tll7
.10
1191 .10
.10

TIll

tyr.

497.1

5;:, ~::~
.~~~
:!:g

~r

.. TOT. RET1.AII M,

I..

BUSINESS:

4~~

39.6

......

.'

DoIlI FIXXI Canpany, lnc. is one or thIiI!arges1 mrnpIInies engllgEld in h work!wide sowmg. processilg, dislrtMrtilg,
end milrkBli1g of high-qllilily lr.Inded bJd products, prInariy tesh
fruiIs 'nd 'I'8geti1b18s. Sold ;.a busill!l!l:S 10 5eagnms,~.
Tl'l!Insferrecl 1'81.1esbnt development opIRtiDnl!l iI HlrWi1i. Calfornia. end Arizona. end two 1tD.~ hmII on lAn8'i, to CasIIB &

43.6
614.4

r:=F'=.==";;;';=':':'C:--T:..::...::-t

2IQ2

24.4
'4.6

.'

467.1
470.0
,.CUC::;"";;.""U::"';:::,'
=--;:-~832..2===-=_7:;:85::;.;:0==n;;.='.:-I
Dole Food continues
to focus on imr.
proving operating
efficiency.
One of
ANNUAlRATES PHI:
Pul Est'd'll-'oo
the world's largest producen of bananas
~~(pIr~1
11~~% 5~% Io~
and apples realizes that during a weak
"C8SI'1 FJow"
3.0%
1.5%
S.ot'
economic period a more effident company

21.5
11.8

34.1
13.8

..

$116.0miL

Annuallllnlais

(FIFO)

38.6
23.0

CAPITAL STRUCTURE lIS of IItlMl1


lotll Dlbt$1038.9ml. Dus in 5 Yrs $82S.0ml.
LT Dl!bI $1007.3 mil. LT Interest $70.0 mil.
(L T i'lten!St earned: 2.21;
162"dC8p~
bJQI iIIln!d COVtnge: 2. 1.J:)
UnClllptlalDd

35.5
22.5

..

all.,..

37.9
25.9

."

:'I~...'.

1.1 ".

Ann'l1oD1
Rnnn

Insider Decisions
. ~.'
D~FIIA.JJA
..,
001000000
OpIII-.OOOOOOOOO
....
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
" .'
Institutlonal Decisions
Gill 1m.t Im.,
P.n:e1l'l12.0
..,
54
59
92
'.0
tr.JI.-d
4.0
~,
293~ 3030~ 297~

LusllS,

40.0
26.0

LEGENDS

(1.110. Mlrtd)

GaIn

.t8.0
28.0

U.Cnllr.-psh
... R~PO:e~

2004-46 PROJECllONS
PricI

38.6
26.3

I'.

t I:

B+

75
10
50

II

TWEUN.SS

SAfElY

3 NN'lI21Bl1

TECHNICAL

3 ""',,''''.,

low:

....

",11

3.for-2 ~

MIl

Ann'

TGtaI
Gain
Return
50
(+55~~ 12"
35
(+5%
Insider Decisions

l': "'"

r..-p

11.5

7.7

11.3

10.0

7.9

7.

20.
10.1

1I1

J"

....
....::~,.......,.

,.

.h.,.5

,.

"1
'.

......

.,
.. .

.....

10"'-

3.5'"
5.""
.5 ..
2.0"
8.0"

Dividends

Book Value

Y.,
.....

FlscoJ

I.

1919

2000
2001
2002
nscoJ

Y.,
.....

1991
1995

2000

"'-

11.5"
16.0%
23.0%
4.5%
12.5%

.......

1Iar.3, Jun.30
101.1 1320
134.1 152.3
151.8 170.9
163.0 189.5
175
110
llJ5
EARJlNGS PER SHARE
Dee.31 IIIr.31 Jun.30
.25
.44
.25
.35
.48
.33
.42
.29
.62

19.07'
12.5"
F

QUARTERLY
SAl!S llllll)'
"'~1
111.6
143.1
155.1
162.6

7.5"
12.5"
10.5"

Fiscal

Sep.30
Ya,
49~5
141.2
579.3
149.8
170.0
641.8
In. 705
7SII
200
F.'
....
FlscoJ
Sep.30
Ye.r
.41
1.35
1.61
.45
1.71
.38

..

.38

.39

.45

.5lJ

UO

.66
.61
.70
.15
DWlBDSPmC:
Mar.3' Jun.30 Stp.30 Dec.!'
.125 -.125 -.125 ..
.125 --

2001
2002
CaI"du

1917
1991
1995

.125
.10
.125

..

2000

2001

.10
.10

tr""",... ....

.125
.10
.125

Full
Vou
25
.25
.35

.10
.125
.065

.~
.4

..,
..,

,.60

'"

1999
2000 2001
20.47
24.85
2315
3.01
3.62
'-45
1.61
1.11
~05
3.63
11.95

3.65
13.63
7.
13.6

CI

lJI.

lilli,

VIkIe

..,

lit

tile ~

..,

,.

.,.

1l'

519.3
18n
38.'
48.6
35.7'4
8.R
1. 9
91.0
338.3
10.8%
13.8'
12.4"

641.8
20.61

511. per sh
"Cash FJaw"

m
163.6
379.9
9.8'4
12.8'
10.9"

1011

'"

263
551

pi"

Ih

1>' Earning. pII" Ih M.R DWell Otcf'd p III ~


3.15 C",1 Spending P'''.
1~85 Il85 Boal Yalul pII' Ih
g
Avg Ann'l PJ"fROo
R.ur. PIE Rdo
;;~ Avg
Ann' D1v'd YWcI
70. 710 S111115mlD1 A
.U
5.05

......

13.'"
,~O

48.8
34.4'
7.5\

910
2459

11'
10..

.............
11..

2:1.'"

I~'"

'18"
I'"

,~.
.IS

.'"

100

24.0"

10.'

Inc:oml Tu RIll

25.'"

"'" "'"

!D.'"

'

31.10
U.
U
.10
150
H.20
2<50

11. 'spnd~"1
Not 1'1011

25.'" 25.'"
20.'
148
42D

r-

11.

U%

N.t Pru!lIl.-;&1

25.. Woninl Cop'IIlnWI

10.'

120

'DO

LooI~~:~r-l .90

47. Shr.E .

$nliII

10.5% 8.... "'T ..... ':':


I~'" Rmm 011 Shr. E .
I~'" RI1Iined tD CllI1I Eq
AI DWdI tD Nit Prvf

21"

11.0%

I~'"
10.5"

""

fof 32% d sales. 2000 ~


ntCe; 6.1';'. Has about 3,245
ampbyees, 1,100 shaft!t101ders. BakBr family owns abDUt 29.4% of
nxk; 0.... cI'Is. & dD., 3.4%; Royce Associates, Inc. and Royce
Mgrri. Co . 6.0'" (Imo Pmx)'). Ctmln.: Edw.-d L Sam. PnIs .
llId CEO; John D. Bater II. IncorpcnIBd: FL Adchu: 155 Eat
21st St, JacUDnvilIB, FL 32206. Telephone: 904-355-1781.

any decline in private-sector activity.


Florida Rock is in position to benefit from
TEA-2l (the Federal Highway Spending
numbers, as demand for concrete and ag- Act). which is the largest public works law
gregate products remain resilient, even In United States history. TEA-21 authoramidst the difficult economic environment.
lzes a minimum of S198 bUllon towards
All told. we expect earnings for fiscal 2001 swf"ace transportation through 2003. Al(year ends Sept. 30th) to be 52.05 a share, though many of the company's construewith sales over $700 million.
lion markets remain healthy. residential
Mana~ment announced the purchase
constnJctlon, which constitutes roughly
of certain assets of U.S. Aggregates. onethlrd of total sales, is weakening.
Included in the deal are seven operating While the sluggish economy will likely
stone quarries. two sand operations. one reduce private-sector demand, pickups in
ready-mix operation. and other pennitted
pubUc spending should rontlnue to drive
and not-yet-permitted stone quany sites. earnings growth in the next few years.
Six of the quarries are in Alabama. with Thus, we expect 2002 earnings to Jump to
the other being in Tennessee. The location $2.30 a share, largely due to the effect of
of the fadl1ties will allow Rodda Rock to TEA-2l business.
serve markets In western Tennessee, Mls- Florida Rock's share price has held
sisslppl, Alabama, and the Gulf Coast, and up welJ. That reflects good earnings proswlll romplement the company's existing
peets. at least through 2004-2006. The low
markets. We view this acquisition as a key debt and strong balance sheet should give
move wilhin the rornpanys growth stra- FRK the r;un1ty
to make more acquitegy. and expect It to generate solid top- sltions. w e government spending will
line gains. As the full output of the loca- help secure eam1ngs stability in a weakentlons is achieved. these addiUons will like- Ing economy. However, a lot of this growth
ly help boost e3ITllngs.
~pcars recognized In the stocks price.
Govenuoent
spending should
offset
van J. Rosenthal
October 12. 2001

_.P.. ~~

~
~.
rMillll RIIIeriII is ol:iIIIB kaII _
~
10 lR r&iIIIIe IIIld is ~
E ORNtr [1l:RORSOROliISSIONSH[R[W.ThiI~issRlylar~s_.nmm"iR5""_lIf1lIIUR!.

rad1,lIaItlllCI.~i1

,"
'"
2002 I CVALUlJIEPIJB
.~C.
,1.1,
3"

'"..::.......
... ....

13.9
.79
.7'4

~"

'"

."

.17

s .... JOlh.
~W,57;2Q.~'7._...........
d... l~l"m._.ad,...
....
B Pm-y elWrlngS ITlDlIgh'91, diluted there- md-Ocl (el Next div'd mtg about Jan. 5th.
SD:thoklers receivecI one .here rJ FJorida
..... Ezcl earnings from diYesl:8d opwati:In: Goes ell-div. llbout January 15IL Appr. diYd Roc:k & Tank Li1es (NDQ: FRKT-V) for BaCh
'86, 7. Ellcl IIDInC. Ians: '88, II; '93, 10: Pr"1fTt diriBs: .Ian. 2, Afr 1, JuL 1, and Oct. 1. st.& oC FRK lIoc:k, 7I15J!6.

THEFUlUSi'RlSflJTRf

......

"" -.
"""
210
.106

I--

28'

"_(psi"')

,.

11,11111

."'

S ....
"Cash FIow"
Eamngs

40
32

"" TOT. RETURllIID,

...

,!,\"lL)

--

11,1' I

12

2.2,

- - --~
- -- -

-;tr

, "'.1 11""".,1,,,

.,

""'"'''' ......
""""

20

1990
1994 1995
1998
1985 1986
1987 1988 1989
1991 1.1993
1996 1997
14.13
11.40
9.31
lU,
15.21
10.70
9.65 10.~ 11.82 12.97 14.33 16.22
10.00
U9
1.n
1.13
1.95
1.17
1.11
1.50
2.01
~41
2.55
1.61
1.48
1.43
1.95
1.77
to,
.62
.07
.14
.22
1.35
.87
.n
.84
.84
1.32
.9'
.17
.11
.17
.17
.17
.17
.17
.12
.15
.17
.17
.17
.17
.17
.84
.97
1.15
.63
1.1~ 1.52
1.61
1.65
3.37
1.41
1.1.
.82
4.61
3.63
421
5.10
7.42
8.20
9.39
'.n 613 613 611 603
ZIN
.48
7.
.17
7.
.. 'NlIr 57.' 38.1 15. 11.1
101
71
11.4
13.
91
91
13.3
'.8
.69
1.01
NMF
3.48
.69
.58
.76
.73
1.01
.74
.58
.53
..
1.9,
1'%
1.8'1'. 1.9,
1.81
1.41
.9l'
1'%
1.81
~1' 20'
1."
CAPrTAl STRUCTURE IS of 113U11
295.7 211.8 29404 356.' 369.0 398.7 458.8 492.5
Total Dlibl $146.7 mi. DUlin ~ TI"I $120.0 mil.
12.0'4 12l' 12n
11.81 17.9% 19.0'
18.7'
".7'
30.7
33.4
30.2
26.7
261
25.4
28.8
26.'
LT Debt $139.3 mill. LT lntelMt $8.0 ml.
2.0
3J
172
'.0
23.9
27.' 31.1 38J
(28% of Cap'.
.. 10.6\ 36.1' 37.5' 3'"
34.1'
352'
UI5e1, Uncapltllizld: None
34"
1.4,
~O, 5.11
.7'4
7.9'
6."
8."
Pension L1lblllty None
lU
191
21.0
26.4
25.8
21.1
352
48.'
43.9
41.4
39.4
23.1
10.9
23.9
9.7
16.9
PfrJ stock None
169.1 168.1 111.6 192.1 2112 229.1 264.6 299.9
In 2.5'
8.4% 11.1'
13.6'
12.1'
3."
Common Stock 28,193,140 stIs . (74'" of CaP'Q
11.2'
13.0%
IS of713Ot01
2.3\
1. 01
9.0'
11.31 11.8'
12'
3."
MARKETCAP: 5125 milion (Small CIP)
N!IF
NMF
n '.1,
9.8% 12.31 11.4'4
9.1"
CURRENT POSrTX)N 1919
2000 1I30I01
NIE
1191
II'
II'
M
7"
Co
......
3.7
BUSINESS: Florida Rock lnduslnes. Inc. manufaclur8l ntady-mix
3.4
3.'
Receivables
75.4
82.5
90.' conaetll, I;DnaeE blod, and other concrete products (65% aI
Inventory (UFO)
31.2
23.6
52.8
sales) and prodUClS c:onstr1.lctDn 8IIgntga1e$ (35%). Opentes
,.5
00 ..
19.8
4.6
Imesmne and IP3nbt quanies, and sand .00 bile ruck pIIi1nts.
122.5
131.2
123.3
Principal
maRats lII1! iI FloQ:ja. Gegia, MM'}'Iand. Vwgi1ia. WashAceD PlI)'ablCl
40.7
41.6
40.8
WIgton,D.C.
and Na1tI CIminI!. Residential cOnstnlction alXOUnts
7.4
Debt Du.
35.8
32
34.9
502
36.9
Florida
Rock is likely to achieve anCulT8nt l.iIIb.
101.6
80.7
83.' other record
year in Z001. Both top and
Esf'd
....
00
ANNUAL RATES Post
Put
bottom lines should exceed all previous

..

....

'00

. J'

::.....
'---

Target Pric. Ranv20~


2005 2006

37.6
22.1

28.'
18.7

~s:sGI

jxQ~

o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ;:J
'.,1-"1 :
000120110
000
130
10 0
".. '}IJ !.
Institutional Decisions
10'01 2m., Pen:tlm 3.0
42
58
U
39
32 h ....
14071
14318

30.3
18.1

21.0
13.0

II

NDJf."_JJ

:t:

10.2

Pra 5eIgII

Hal"-1 ~

OC;~':r..

PROJEC'fim(S

2_

R~

9.'

5.5

LEGENDS
8.0 ,-C,$Il

J5 (1.00 .1Q1ll!I)

BETA

9.7

High'

Rlf,edBflOOl

l~cENT
11.1) ~:tO.88T~1.3%
PRItE 32 6sl:f
RAOO 14 6C"~
"eci~: 14.0

FLORIDA ROCK INOS.I ,.~I


NYSEFRK

FO*d,"CIli:a~"

.. alllllil"9tI'CI

CI

......

.......,

CI~CIIi:.~stII'ficeCi

lJI

:10 pili

SlDc:.... rica StJ.btity


Prica Grawth Pers!11enc:8
Earnings Pl"ldldabilly

70
70
BO

U1II.

odu:L

",

II:

II'

FULLER2 (H.B.\ NDQFULL

lWEUIdSS

3 Nl!WlnJo9l
2 1l:1MI11T1Wl

SAFTY
i[CHNICAl
ETA

IQi5edlO'SJlJl

.10 (I.Dll.~

High:

10.4

21.4

l.EGENDS
'1.oIc.'I/Ir'-pm
....
ReiaM Pm SlI'!Ilg1h

26.6

21,4

21.1

19.9

24.8

6o!Z

::.

cigJgggggg

.S"

0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0

32.5

36.4

35.9

1.6%
Target Price RInge
20~ 2005 2006

31.2

mn

lDO
8D
54

..
1E~t=~==t=~==t==~~=~~~;=~~~t=

Ii"C:,,~~~'::.~_:.
=i=..='==.... 0,.2
,

1:5C1(

30.1

DIV'D
lID

~"~~~'~~'~';9~~9~'8~117~"I~I~5~'8t~'~'~'9t~'~4~'9t~'~4'~8E~22~'~5E~17~'01~'9~"I~'~'~"!~'~7~"t~~~~

].Iur.2 ~
2_-1 sill

Ann'ITat:II~
2004-06 PROJEcno~
PrIce .....G*tll\
Return
HIgh
40
17%
lJiW
30
+10%
12"
lnalder Decisions
J F A J J A I'-

'11,.1

,1'1',

I"

32

",.1

II

..

2"
20
18

I"

II'

II

'w

II.,;...

IIIK

IT

12

....

II

".

::uU~:'~DB:t
w:; :;;:;;::~"
IIIII
HI"'-'

27001lp
REI.A!I'IE 091
.,
IRAm 16 8(TrJiifog:ll~)
w.,: 17] PRAm.

TRECNT
IPRICE

-, .'

....

I.

""~.

32 16874
4' 17515
45 traded
16954

5.0

18.81 21.04 24.10 26.84


1.14 1.46
1.40 1.41
.67
.90
.73
.55
.12
.14
.18
.19
.47
1.03
1.41
1.46
4.B1 5.68
6.28
6.64
<8.\0 """2a:lIr ~
.7
12.1
13.3
1n- 16.1
.82
.89
1.15 1.22
1.5% 1.1% 1.7% 2.2%

29.30 31.11 33.77 35.09' 39.38 44.40 45.35


1.80 2.06 2.43 2.04
2.30
2.51 2.88
.77
1.00 1.28
!J1
1.10 1.04
121
.20
21
.23
21
.29
.32
.33
1.16
1.09 125
1.51 2.33
324
3.19
7.28 7.98 921
8.96
9.85 10.68 11.B9
27.
27.41 27.65 27.80 27.87 ~
-28:13
10.6 14.4 11.1 19.3
162 -16.6
100
.79
.92
1.07 1.14
1.06
1.11
.92
2.4% 1.4% 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% Ul

To'

.:

'nJ1.RETURIiI11lO1

II."

"/-I--

,'7'

.......
:.,

,7'7'

".,

.....,.,7".'

198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 cYALUEIJNEPUB
16.57
.86
.48
.11
.~2
4.09

-,m
10.1
.87
2.11

CAPrrALSTRUCTURE
as of 111101
Total Debt $279.3mil. DUlin 5 YII $36:6m"

~:d~:7~~=PiIal~~=$19.3mil.
(LTmeresteamoo:5.2x:
Il:JIaI interest CD'tfiiIge: 4.7x)
(35% af Cap1)
Leases, UncaptbltlDdAnnualnlntl~ $9.1 mil.
PhI Stock $.3m-.
PId Dwd $.02 mill.
45,900Ihs. $6.67 par, 5% a.m., 8lIdl en1i1:ledto
80 wles,radeem. at par.
(lesslhan1%afCap1)
CornmonStock 14,142,6J2shanl'S(65%ofCapl)
Alper-shatv frguf&udjusledfDI NOI-1 stock spIiI
6ffeclfld1fI1!l.
MARKET CAP:$375 milUon (SmaJlCapJ

CURRENTpOSrrlON
(lIIlL}
cash Assets

R&ceivables
~~
(UFO)
o.UR!n1 Assets
Acds Pllyable
Debt Due

Other
Cull1lnllJab.

1111
5.8
255.0

2000

IIt/D1

1005

11.1

220.8

221.8

1~:~
448.9
132.3
58.3

1~:g
435.1
126.7
402
---Ml
59.8
272.7 228.7

1~]

"'""4"f9:T

852.9 933.1
10.4% 11.0%
28.7 31.6
27.7 35.6
40.4% 40.6"
321
3,BI~
108.8 130.8
11.8 53.5
219.1 255.0
10.7'10 12.5'10
12.61 14.01
10.1' 11.5'
20"
18%

975.3
9.1"
29.7
27.0
42.5,.
2.81
119.9
60.3
249.4
10.0%
10.81
7.8'
28"

1097.4
9.1%
33.4
30.9
38.8"
2.81
129.1
130.0
214.8
8.41
1121
8.3'
26"

1243.8
B.7%
411
291
38.0"
2.31
142.0
166.5
299.4
7.5'10
9.8"
611'

1306.8
10.3%
46.8
40.3
40.8"
3.'1
171.6
230.0
339.1
8.5'10
11.9%
8.9'
251

4B.11 48.45 47.91 45.75


3.11
3.34
3.59 145
1.35
1.55 1.74
1.53
.40
.41
.42
.43
2.23
2.00
1.74 1.70
12.20 13.35 14.32 15.55
27!!7 28.17 28.23 28.36
19.3
18.4 12.6
7,'
1.00
1.05
.82
,40
1.5% 1.41l 1.91 f.'"
13411
1Q.a
49.5
31.3
2!I.11
2.BI
112.1
300.1
341.4
7.B'Io
10.9%
7.7'"
29'10

BUSlfESS: H.B. FullerCo. fonrulil1ll's, manufacturesand maRets


adhesiv8s, sealants, watmgs, pai'rts and oI1eJ specially chemical
~"uct!I. 2000 sales breakdown: IIdhesives, sealants and cnatiIgs,
93 ; painls, 6%: allier, 1%. 2000 sales by region: North AmericI,
57%: EInpe, 22%; lain America, 15%; AsillPllcrl:, 6". R&surdl and DewbprnBnI, 2,4" 012000 sales. 2000 depnK:iiJtiDn

111.1
36.6
58.9 Alth Qugb
204.8

sales
are
soft"
lower
petrochemical
costs are aiding FuJANNUAL
RATES Put
hit Est'd'la-'DD ler's margins.
Weak
economies. both at
~=iI(pIr~J 11r.o".
5~
home and abroad (20%-25% of sales stem
"Cash Flaw"
8.0%
8.0%
4.5"
from overseas), are crlmplng revenues.
8.5%
8.5%
5.5"
Foreign-currency translation negatives are
Book
Value
~:~
~:~
not helping. The company Is also shying
F;ocoI
QlJARTfRLY
SAW II"~
FBI
away from seiling Its adhesive products at
Y_r
F.b.2B .-31
Aug,31 ModO ~:I
dlsoount prices. even If this means losing
En*
~~
some custom~.
Raw materlal
oosts
1911 310.1 342.0 333.5 361.0 1347.2 (about 55% of sales), however, are decreas1119 327.2 348.2 331.9 357,2 1364.5 lng from the high levels experlenced dur2DIO 321.2 347.2 323.1 3011.11352.6 Ing the firs. half of Bscal 200 I (year ended
2011 306.9 328.5 315.7 J411 1215
2OD2 310
350
34Q
350
f35D November 30th). This is primarily due to
Fisall
EARtlNGSPERSHARf.Ae Fill
much lower petrochemical prices. AddlY_r Flb.21 1I1Y31 Aug.31 Nov..30
FlIc:aI tionaJly, Fuller is looking to China for betEnda
Y_r lee terms on petrochemical contracts, rath1991
.21
.42
.30 .42 1.35 er than staying with the more traditional
1119
.16
.42
.41
.56
1.55 suppllers In the U.S. and Ew-ope. These
varlUngables,
In con(1thunc'hIDndwith
other bcost2002 .25 .45 .5
.55 f.70 cut
moves
e ea count has
een
QUAR1BU.YDIYI)END$PAllc.
reduced by 1.100 over the last three
I~:~
IIIT.31 Jun.30 Sen.JO Dec:.31 :~~
years), helped Improve margins In the secJ-!."~-I.!~'!...:!!!!~~~--!!~lJ-~!'..j
ond half of fiscal Zool and should continue
1917
.165 .185
.185 .185
.72 Loaid margins
this year.
1991
.185
.20 .20 .20
.79 A decent-sized
acquisition
would
t!lll
.20
.205 .205 .205 .82 boost a flagging top line. The adhesives
:~~5
i~5 ,84 Industry has grown considerably over the

to~:

5~~=s

i:g~

= ..: :~:~:~n~

1275.7
9.6%
41.0
34.1
41.0%
2.710
141.6
172.8
334.7
B.31
10.2'
7.5'
211

4721
3.15
1.43
.37
2.50
1224
27.68
11.9
1.03
1.41

=: :~

:~~s

(A)Fal year ends Nov. 30. (BI DiiItecI.".


ngs. Prtnary tt'IU '!17. Excl OOnrBall". gaiIs
(losses): ~, 17;"93, ($.61);'95, (2_~"98,
40; '97 (12k'01, SO.9(30). Next wnings

II"

1364.5
12.6%
50.8
43.4
42.7"
32"
174.2
263.1
376.4
8.6'
11.5"
8.5'10
26'

1352.6 f%95
11.4" 11.0"
521
54.0
49.2
'10
31.0" 31.0%
3.61 303"
208.4
ZOO
250.$
Z3fJ

1!SO SalI'(SmID)

'0 ,

IIC.

~.70 SlHlplrlh A
~70 -Cutl FIow",.1II
1.70 E.-ninlllplrlh I
.U Dlv'dlDKfdplrM
C.
1,75 CIp' SpwIcIlng
pluh
1UO BooIlYllulplnh E
'UO IC........ Sh.llo1ot'g D
AvgAnn1PIf:Rdo
R*tJv1 PIE Rdo
AvgAnn' Div'dY""d
12.M(,

5UD
OJ
US
.Sf
1111
'1./5
2.Sf
100
1.10
1.",
1490

iii.

I~~-il..

51.0 DIpIKidan(".1
41.0.... Pruii,k."iil
37.0% Incoml Tu Itdt
1'" NilProftlll.
2QO Waning Csp'I(Sntll)
2.J(J longTIRII DIbI: (W)
-_ ....
':_~~
404.7
UO
.15 Shr.ErrulNl~)
9.1'
1.5"
7.0% RIbn llIl T~C~'I
12.11 10.0% 111Q%RnmllllShr.'E;;ih,
911
7.0% 7.0% RlllalnedtDCOIIIEq
241
H%
21" AI Div'dl to IHl. Prof

11'"
110
lO.O

,.'"
t'"
Z5IJ

eo
105

.'"

10.0%

lO"
m

131B:7.5%. Has about 5,420 I!II11pbyees and 4,760 mmmon sr..hoklers. 0ffDn ~d dAckn; own 7.6% oIlhe stoct; ClpIaJ Garden Trust, 6.3%; Anthony L Andersen 2.8% (3101 Proxy). Chal"man, President end CEO: Abilrt P.L SYoucken. lncorpcniKt: M'"
oesoIa. Address: Wont 00, P.O. Box 64683, 8t Paul, MN 55164.

Telritphone:
651-236-5900.Irrtemet:www.hbfu
.... com.
18st 10 years_ I n our opinion, It is d ue IiQ'("

consolldation, partJaJ.1arly now that the indusUy is turning increasingly commodityorlented in order lo keep costs down.
There are around 410 adhesives suppliers
in the U.S. and about 520 in Europe. Fuller and National Starch (part of ICI) are
the Industry" leaders, with approximately
S1.3 billion in annual sales. As such. we
t.hink the company Is llk.ely to consununate
a near-tenn acquisition, probably in a
specialty adhesive area, in the S 100 mUIIDn annual sales range.
This issue has little long-tenn capitalappreciation
potential.
Short of 1mplementing some large and profitable acquIsltions (not factored into our projectJons), we don't see share net moving up at
much more than a 5% average annual
eorate.Anttlnd
even thisn)may b~ optlmis thtlc.
st-cu
g can 0 y go so .ar, an d e
company's end-users operate in cycllcal
markets. Additionally. we think. the fact
that such a large portion of oosts stem
from oU-based raw materials. which are
highly volatile, will keep these timely
shares under pressure.
Jeremy J. Butler
December21. 2001

report dUlleerly Jln. (e) Next divdmeeting :


mi.; IIdj. for spit. (E) Ind. iltl:ngiblBs, '00:
mihllln. GDB5ex-drvdIatII Jan. Appn:a.d/v'd $U13.1milt, S3.65Jsh.
piI)1IWllI daIBs:abl101l rI Feb, Mil)',Aug.,
i!lnd Nav . DivdIllirt .... nt plan iIYIIe. (DI
ID2lDl, VIlle I..ile NlI5nilQ. 1m:. AI ~
1'I5elWII. fKlilllIlllllrill
is ~
fnllllsuras ~
10 be r'IIIiIIIIe n is pMeII""" ~
.. MyUlI:L ~
TIl[ PUIlJSiER IS M)T RE~SIII.[
lORNff ll.RORS OR OMISSIOffS,H[RUI. This~iI
sri::Iy" ~S~IIGl'''''Gi.''''ciaL
iIlInIII .... Napld
If ~..,. be ......
mIIIiL !IlIlnlll II ~
II q plia&d.
II 'III-. ...
II _
.. ~
II .....
q pri*d II *daiI: fIIIIIbIa ~
II P'*1

Company's FlnancIIJStNnglb
&met's Prb StahlII)'
Price GrvwtbP.rslstance
Eamings P..... dlbiwtJ
I

I "

II:

B+
65
25
65
It

Nil

GREAT ATL. & PAC. NYSEGAP


1JlIEUNESS

SAFm

3 N~112.1!O
1 PlY!! ~1

T[CHNICAL.

High:
Low:

RIiw!d IilCWl

61.8
37.8

57.8
25.5

35.3
21.5

35.0
2Z.5

27.4
17.4

28.9
17.8

38.8
19.5

36.0
23.1

34.4
21.9

37.7
24.5

29.1
6.0

Target Price Ran~

20.4
6.4

2000t 2005 2006

..

LEGENDS

50

2.5. ~Ih n.~


p!lll
RIIIUte PrEe Shnglh

32

~y~

'Ii
I

\.:'

"1,-

...

-." .

MUM

41

_1iIp

=::.

ZQ2111

45

1122~ 117~

1'.'

P.rcent
32 .,..,...
11..

1m.'

119~~ trMMI

...

1 yr.
3 yr.
S'1'.

-.

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991


174.37 205.81 249.88 263.56 291.81 298.04 303.31
7.13
3.60
453
6.48
711l
B.54
9.19
US
1.48
1.82
2.11
3.34
3.84
3.95
.80
.10
~
M
~
~
n
17.63 19M
22-32
25.42 2859
31.95 32.79
3822
37.94 38.07 38.14 38.10 38.20 3812
20.11
12.0 13.4
13.5 12.5
14.9 1L7
1.33
A7
A1
.90
1.04
1.13
.94
.61
1.61 1.31
1.l"
1.61 ~1\
CAPrTAL STRUCTURE a. of g/0Ml1
11591
Total Delli $816.2 mil. Due in 5 Yrs $430.0 mill.
29.7%
LT DIM $80Q.8 mil.
IT Interest $80.0 mil.
3.7%
1275
Ind. $00.0 mil capitalzed Ieasas.
70.7
(SO" of Cap'!)
(Total iDIlrBsI COVllRIge: NMF)
43.0\

1.4,

.6\

PhI S1ack None


Ccmmon stock 38,347,216shs.
(50% of Cap1)
IIARKETCAP:,7DOmilDon{5maNCapi
CURRENTPOSrnON
1911
2OOO!llQMJ1

11OU-l

~:~
Irmtnlory
Other

124.6

(Avg Cst)

Current Assets

~rJ i:i: ~:~


583.1

Currentliab.

11"24.6

Book VIIIue

566.5

538.1

J~:~
J~ ~1

ANNUAl RATES Past


d~(pII"")
1IY...

5~d~

159.7

80.0 103.2
104.9
1222.9 1201.9 1187.0

AcdsPayabie
g:;rDue

Sales
''Ca!hADW''

131.5

-0.5%
-1.5"

1107.5
1149.3
Pm
&I'd .'00
n...
ID.....
__
5.0%

-3.0%

2.9%
10499
3D.6%
2.6%
1193
d9.3
NMF
NMF

11H
56.8
692.1 596.4
1253.1 1034.3
5.6\
1.1%
5.6\
NMF
3.2\

43\

1993 1994 1995


271.69 270.33 264.29
6.28
6.65
7.23
.10
.50
1.33
.80
.65
.2D
26.02 2027 21.53
38.22 38.22 3812
NMI"
45.5
18.1
NMF
2.98
111
~9%
~'"
"
10384 10332 10101
30n
3O.B% 313%
~'"
3.0% 3.7%
1224 1108 1014
4.0
18.9 50.1
39.61
NMF 31.51
.0'"
.2'
.51
791
912 118.3
101.3 158.9 780.1
994.4
714.9 822.8
2.1% 3.6% 4.7"4
.41
2.41 62\

NMF
NMF

NMF
NMF

NMF
NMF

51\

15\

1996 1997 1998


263.78 26811 265.84
71M
7.19
7.44
1.91 1.66 1.34
.20
.40.
..40
23.21 24.22 21.81
38.25
3825 38.29
16.1
17.0
21.8
1.01
.98
1.13
.6% 1.4% 1.4%
10089 10262 10119
312% 30.9% 31.0%
'.0%
3.B% 2A%
973
936
839
13.0 63.6
51.3
21.41 23.31 NMF
.~
.6'
.51
215.4 262.1 89.9
839.5 816.3 844.3
890.1 926.6 837.3
5.81
5.11 5.1%
82\
6.9\
6.11
7.3%

9.5"

-1.0%

5.5"

lI'JARTEIlLT
SAWIS_I'

.r:!.

1999
260.45
1.99
1.93
.40
22.06
38.31
16.0
.91
13%
9992.7
31.2%
4.4%
150
14.0
43.0"
.1\
98.3
983.5
846.2
6.3%
8.7%

51'

4,31"

6.9%

241

30\

21%

10\

I-

28.3 I55.1

-391
-4'.5

2000 2001 2002 cYALUEUNEPIIl


~~ _
m.02 aus 217.%5 SRI pI ... h A
'!510l1
6.02
1.75
US -cuhRlIII"'pw"
1511
d.65
liB
.15 EningIPM'M
US
.30
liB
Nil Dh'c1IDK1'd.-lIb e
Hi
20.19 ZU5 Z1.15 BookYIIut FIll' III
11.15
38.35
.JUS
"'.35 CIIIIl"IClII
Shl Ou1st'Q
'US
NMF
Nt.lF

Bald,.,.._

2.2%
10673 ft10G
30.9% 31.'"
2.9'4
3.1%
152
110
d25.1
Nil
NMF
HIIF
NMF

94.4
1040.0
197.0
1.3'
NMF
NMF
NMF

AvgAnn1PIERltio
R*tiYI PIERdo

u.

13.0
.15

A....... , ""'. V1~'


11400 S111S(~1 A
n", Gnu lIIIgil
'-'% o,..rio>o M"1In
710 Numblrol SkIns E
35.0 NIIfn)ftl( .... 1
... '" InanITuRitl
HIE
.JI NIl: Ptoll....
7A.O
115 Wcnk1g CIp' (lnll)
lOG
lOG longTtml DIbI (1nlII1
lOll
US Shr.
l.5%
""'
RIbnOilToWCap'1
HIIF
4.0% R.m ClIISN'. Entit..
NIIF

4.'"

NiJ

!WainlCltoCClIIEq

Ni ADDiY'dstaNIlProt

Hi
135Dl1
Jl.5ll

1'"
.15
1Cl0
40.0"

.R
4110
ISO
1045
l5%
1.5%
7.5%

Nil

BUSIUESS: The GIQ;II AtIallti:: & PacClC Tea Co., Inc.. (A&P) opel'
WIs abl 750 stores 11 16 stales, the Oisl of CoUn., & 0ntIri0,
CeMda. Awnge slant 1izlI: 37,100 sq. ft.. Sbas optnte u"
A&P, SlW-A-C&riw, Sup81 Huh, Kohra, The 88m, UInI food fIIJd
Drug, Food &npcriMn, WMIleinI's, F8tmw .MeX, ~
FoodmlWf, and DomiJioo balOn81'S. Also S&'Yes ru food Baa franchile

stores. for89n (Can-.:lilln) sales: 22% rI tatal 2000 l:Iepr..... :


8.7%; p8nl: age: 4.1 yrs. Has abouI83,OOO empIoyII811 (88% lInDn
1TlfII'l'd)., 69% pIt). Tengemann Group a:nboIs 56.6% rI amnon;
0IIian & dir8ctrn, ..4.9% (5101 pruxy). Channan, finis. end CEO:
Christian Haub. Inc.: Mil. AddrtIss: 2 p;ngon Dr., Montvale, NJ
07645. Tel: 201-573-9700.Web: www .....
com.

Great
Atlantic
and Pacific
Is not
likeIy to turn a profit
this fiscal year (ends
February 23, 2002). The top line has
received a boost, which can mostly be attributed to new stares that opened 1n fiscal
2000. However, increased SC&A costs negatively impacted. the company's first-half

llzing

profitability. We expect operations

cash

=~

1.5"

-~~~.:~~

1992
214.71
5.75
d.24
.80
21.06
38.22

.... "~.... I-s::

.. Tot. RETUAII.1

Decisions

InstitutiDnal

to

Im-

energy rests should add some support.. In the short. nm, SG&A msts
will
likely remain an issue. The company
should begin to benefit from a restructuring program. as we expect margins to widen slightly in the coming 3 to 5 year.;.
A&.P continues to focus on growing its

now.

The rompany has managed

to

prove later this fiscal year. Interest exreduce a lar~e part. of its debt (by almost
pense should stay lower than that of a S200 mlllion) since our August report.
1.
3078 2330 2J44
2427 10179 year ago, due to a significantly reduced
thanks
to sizable cash balances. True,
1911 2993
2262
2319 2419
9993
2DOO 3200
2440
2429 2554
1D623 debt load. Despite the troubled North
working capital may be sllghtly lower this
2001 3388 2548 2530 B34 11100 American economy. there may be a suc- year than we believed a few months ago,
2D02
:uDO
.H25 28Z5 2750 11400 cessful turnaround in operations soon, fol- but Improving profits and a large reduc~
EARlMGS PfR SHARE All
lowing some strategic steps taken by man- tion in the company's capital expenditures
B:"
un.PerSItD.PerNov.P ... FlbP ... ~_
agement
to become more
customer- over the next couple of years should leave
,.
.50
.35
.30
.19
1.34 oriented and proactive from a marketing
A&P with enough cash to entertain
1991 .SO .45 .47 .51
1.93 S~oint.
~t:Jo
these st~~
hav~ several options. This company is likely to
2000 .15 d.1. d.38 d.28 d.65 ralhareS
our
I and
200
use this capital to expand via acquisitions,
2001 d.19 d.OB .01 .1' Nil
s
-net estimates by $0.20 and SO.60, which augurs well for future sales and
2OD2 .15 .20
.25 .35
.t5 respectively.
earnings. Meanwhlle. current top-line adc.IQUAR1BU.YDIVI)fJG5
PAIl
C
Full As consumers
search for bargains. op- vances are being driven by new stores and
,ndar .ar.31 Jun,30 s;D30'- Dec..31 Y.ar erating
margins may remain
tight
this locations, whIch should eventually contrib1197 .05
.10
.10
.10
.35 year. compared
to those of the past. ute to eamings.
1.
.10 .10 .10 .10
.~ Pcalrogresslvemargln
lmprov ementthis 1Is- 'Ibis stock
is timely
for the coming
1119 .10
.10
.10
.10
.40
year and next wl1l 11k yelbe slower. as year. Price gains to 2004-2006, though.
2010 .10
.10
.10
.10
.40 the company cnntlnues to close various Wlmay be unexciting.
2101 ..
._
._
profttable locations and segments. Stabl Joe R. loitolls
November 9, 2001
J:l::;1
r-'" 8IKfs /aIt 5at~
!nFeb. rI 11lC.galls (1bsE.): '85, 10.85; '86, 10.68; '90, J~'2000. (D) In ml. (EJ Does not indude fran-I ~amp.,," F"ancial StNngth
B
B~

k1n.P.r Sep.Per NaY.P.r F,bPer

y_

':.r

arlBndilr)'lW. tntnn pa'i:lds iII'1I 16,


12, 12, and 1Z weeb. (BI Bued m 1IYg. shs.
dillB:l thenlaftsr. EJ:d. nonPIIbisIirllI. Ine. AI riIIU 1I5l5ftd.

out. thIough '96,


o mn. v-.e ~

$0.20; "92, ($5.83t. '94, (JU9); ~, 10.17; "97,


{SO.01t, '98, ($Z.56); '99, ($1.58). N8:d ..
rpl
elininat8d, D8cem-

FKlIaI m-.ilrII islltUnell


THEPUlUSHER ISMll RBPoNsa..El"OAAIlt1W).RSOROMIS9ONSH[RUil.1IIi5
1lI1..,.1It .......
1l'Sti!.
i111'1J' ..........
II" .....

".l1li ~

chite...

I ~1IDet's Prim SUbIItJ


I PrIcI GIOWIh PersStMm

due &My Jan. (C) Oivid8nd

htn _
II ~

~
b

fI!IB

Eamlngs

ll:I be niratIIe.-.l il. pvriIIaI .....


~
aiill]'
U1d. ~
if,sKlyb~s_,lal~ftlllllluse.Nopart
I111...-g.,.
....
*died. pIIIicIlign. RI'fice II pnMl

l1li

50
5

10

PndicIabIItJ
I

I,

II:

II.

GAYLORD ENTMT. NYSE-GET


4 lomellnn&'lJ1
3 RI5elIl1J'111J3
4 _"nlllll1

TllEUNESS
WID

TECHNICAL
ETA

High:

low:
LEGENDS
15..0 l -CI!Ih
urtllVJ1i

o.oo.lIbIUI)
PROJECTIONS

,II)

2_

tm- p

8m!

1:::'1

21

17

13788

22
19
1381e

P.rcent
26 ..ha,
13

'".

"

Pfd Stock None


Common Stock 33,546,523 shs.
(43% of CaP')
as Dt'713l1D1
IlARKET CAP: 5725 million (Small Cap)

Ca:'~

Reauvables
<3II1w
Cunvnl Assets
Acd:5 Payable
DabtDue
Other
Cul18nt LJab.

18.7

83.3

62.0
164.0
128.1

2000

....

4.0,"

.9'

~1F

66.3
".0
93.9
190.2

'. III'

'

--.-

108.2

-328.7

..

.'.

'.

I!,

.."

'"'' "'""

1.6'
14.4%

8"

"."

,"

22"
10.51

65.0

'.2'4

11.1'

U,

H~

361.9

7.4 233
23.7
302.. 326.1 388.4

67.1
216.7

338.6

419.1

11.0%

10.4'

30."
22.2'

21."

9.4"
15.6'
8.8%

25'

3"

t4.8%

..,

5110
H.6,"

516.2
4.4%

5151
5"

17."

51'

4.8%

tD.3'

NMF
NMF

40'4

."
."

BUSINESS: Gaylord Entertlnnenl


Co. has two Egments. Haspitally and ItIJactDns (50% of pm fomB \10 RMi., 147% of pm
fonna ..... prof.) owns ttIliI 2883-RDf1 Opf)1Ind Hale\ showboIII:,
and other IIlfIraclDns. Music, media and entBrlainmerrl: (50%, d47%)
awns music publshss. the Gland 019 Opry, ilnd two radi:lltlltiDns.
Sold The NashYilll! Network (iNN), 101'97; c:bIed 8Il'ILlBnenl park,

-.....

("I ......,. EWIJdeS


urn .... bough
1996; d~
[F31l
thendel".
norI'BCWIing
gaInS

'

~1, 261. Next ..... "" ...............


1997 flglRS ant pro forma, exdudilg
cable operatlDflS divested 1Qf1,m'.
Plus
sb:k divs. 01 5'" eadl ... June '95 a
June

~nn:

(:I

oIIt'"

"
,.
"

..

/lMdnod

n.........

.80

2.53
28.88

".211
~!I"
~1F
2.7%
510.8

.eo

514.4

~.6

-12.4
-24.3

24>
642
S>
eYALUElIEfItII~ lie.

HI Div'd. Dld'd

-::.. -

;;.-

220

~'"

304.3 633.'
9611 721.9

~MF
~MF
~1F
Nil'

~MF
NMF
NMF
NMF

A'll Mn'P"",
R*tmPtERdo
AYll Ann' DlY'd Y1t1d
3tIl R ... lllII(W}
~5lI
51a ""-("'1)
dfU Not
IIIclnt Tu RIll
Not Poult .....
Cop' 1$1111)
80
LonoT .......
(IniI)

-......
Pn>Ii,"-

III' W_.
"'''' Sh,.-_ 'Inilli
N/IF "' Rebn
III'
NIl, R.... "'SIw.E_
N.
to
Nili' III'
III' AI DWds to .... Prof
N.

80
ffDO
US

llIITCIlII CIp'1

Nili'

RItained

C..

Eq

DUB
1~1O

~G5
1.25

III II

pII"

.....

4.1'
58.5 u.a
d9.' <143.1 437.0
38.4% 38.4% N.
~lIF ~MF
30.1 dl13.0

s".

N'

93'
52.6

.20
f.80

.....

2Z.7a
U

211

f.36
.IlI

525

.'"
10.'
4f.5
"'5lI

..'"

50

ffDO

750
4.5lI
~5lI

.'"

""

12197. Soil:! Se&tlIe 1V slation, Ml7; Dalas 1V 1IImJn, 1lW9. '00


depr. ri1Ie: 5..3%. Has aboul4.600
empbye8s, 11,000 sb:kI'IoIdn.
GiIIyad farrity c:onIrD. 49% of IIIock; Gabeli Funds, 18% (4"Q1"
prmy). Chaimlllln: Nicha8I D, ~;
President & CEO: CoIi'l V.
Reed. Inc.: DE. Addr.s: 1 Gaybtl Driwl,~,
IN 3n14.
Tel.: 615-316-6000.
1nBnel: www.ga~irmBnt.com.

show improvement.
Over 90% of the
room nights canceled were for September
or October, and the~uart.er started well,
with October
RevP
back to the July
level. October occupancy was 69%, and we
think occupancy will rise in the balance of
the quarter as some of the canceled room
nights are rebooked.
Gaylonl's
new Florida
hotel is on
schedule to open on ~Z10Z.The company has obtained a S210 million loan to
complete the hotel, which will be an
Hotel style
Opryland
convention center
Disney
World.
near
About
60% of the
rooms have been booked for next year, and
Gaylord received no cancellations as a resuit of the September attacks. But the
company
has delayed
the planned
opening
of its Texas hotel to mid-2004, due to the
present WlCertainties in the industry.
'Ibese untimely shares have Uttle invesbDent intenst.
The convention and
travel business will probably have a tough
time in the next year. and muntIy music's
market share seems to have retreated to
Its historical B% to 10%. Moreover, the
debt burden makes this a risky choice.
Sigourney B. Romaine
November 23. 2001
,.....,.

2000. (C~~ SIo~

:1.

..-.s ~_

... -

.....
"" """"

1 ".
3".

10.00
'-50 Cop I Spondilo ... 111
6"
21.87 20,45 20.15 Book YIIut JIll' lit C
... 80
tnntOn ~nlQU1Irg
.. 1'

..
..
..

"" TD'L RTURIiI1Mn

1999 2000 2001 2002


055 fI.75 RlIIIIlIII pw III
15.35 15..46
.fa
119
.46
.10 "Cuh_ .. 111
II.3/) Eamngl fill' It! A
d19 d119 dUO

Ind. int.: $104 mil., $3.09ISh in "00. ID) In mill;


ad). b Ilk. split 1I11dItk. divs. (E) EJ:cIudH disconMued busineses stiI owned at 11123101.
CIlUll. 'Mle I..he
mmed. f.al"-III
is
huIII _
IlIIiewId 10be ..-..e II1II il. pMled wU1au11rIOIIlirs III
U1d.
THE FUlUSlRISf)TR
ORAN'![RR~OROMlSSlONSHEREWl
TlIi5pl111i:11iuai5adyb"~_.Mn="_cilL~_.
pill
~ I .., lie IIpIDdIad. I't"KlM. iIEnlI II hnsIIiII!Illl III)' priI*d. *,="llIIi: .. eft( ...... IMIII.. ~
.....
.,
pM:aliaII. SlAb .. ~
(mses):
'93, (42); '94, (10); '95, 4311; '96,
44; '91, ($1.41); '98, 18; '99, $1Q.B2; '00,

- -- - --

..

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998


7;14 7.75 11.11
15.99
1.15
2.17 2.07
1.10 1.01
1.42
.15
.61
.9lI
.82
.16
;lO
.36
.45
.65
14
1.82 1.2U 1.51
1.56
U6
4.35 5.32 15.," 16.01
3'2
3,fU
96."
40.1
29.4 35.4 269
37.'
1.83 231
1.68 214
2.12
1.31
1.51
1.1%
2."
6819 101.5 7471 561.5 524'
211' 23.9l1 14.7% 16.31
33.0 38.1 489
428
".2
25.1
m 65.4 87.7
26:.
38.5' 38." 33." 28.3% 38.4%

.......

,"..,

80
50
40
32

12

\.

~""

I P'"'"

"

..

. 0
20.1
133.9
'36.3 Gaylord"s restructuring is nearing its
completioIL Starting over a year ago,
Past Est'd'l&-'IO
ANNUAL RATES
Past
,,-,.
(poo .. )
5T...
Gaylord began to sell or wind. up small or
1'Y'1L
7.0%
17.0%
Re""" ....
3.""
money-losing businesses under an interim
10.0%
"Cash FJaw"
-.5%
3.5%.- . 21.0% CEO. With a new CEO and CFO In place,
Earnings
-17.",
21.0%
15.0%
the company
Is eliminating the divisional
"""'ends
Boc:*. Value
45.5%
51.0%
organization, with the resuit that business
general
manage'"
will now report directly
lIIIARTERlT Rf\'EMIES ~ IIIll
Full
CIlelldar
lIar.31 Jun.30 5,11.30 0rK.31
y- to the CEO. Gaylord expects. to save about
1911 1118.0 127.0 134.9 154.' 524.5 $8 million next year as a result. The com199! 113.1 128.4 135.1 133.' 510.6 pany has also put WOrd Entertainment, its
514.4
111.4 134.4
130.6 137.8
Christian music division, on the block..
2001 65.1 71.2 75.2 '1 '320
after
taking
$29
a
ml1Uon
pretax
3'J1
2002
lO.a lDfJ
lDfJ
f"
wrltedown on the unit in the third quarter
EARllNGS PER SfIARE A
(excluded from our numbers).
Full
c
IIlr.31 Jun.3D SeD.3D Dec.31
You Third-quarter results were mixed .
.32
.I Gaylord cut the operating loss on contlnu1991 ..
.22
.22
d.29 ing businesses by 38%, thanks to an 511.5
1l1li d.14
.02
.02 d.19
d.27 d.25 d.38 d.39 d1.29 million decrease in losses from music,
2011
d.34 d.36 d.29 d.lf 'dUa
media
and
entertainment.
to
near
,tla
./lil
d.:JfI breakeven. But
d.ZO
d.0!
200'
profits
from hospitality
QUARTBlLT DNIlEJIJS pAIIJII
and attractions fell 72%, more than can be
Full
CIlIlIIlr.31 Jun.30
S.p.30 DK,31
You attributed
endar
to the effects of September
.45 II tho September revenue per available
.10
.10
.15
1997
.10
.65 room (RevPAR)at Opryland Hotel dropped
.20
1991
.15
.15
.15
.80 50% In September.
.20
.20
10
1999
.20
after posting
5% year.. over-year gains i~
..
..
..
-and August.
-1001 . . but the Ii
quarter
should
5.'

rarg.t Prie. Rilngll


20CM 2005 2006
80

......, .'"

35.'
112.9
215.7
151.8
17tl.9
_

23.4

Nil

29.2
18.5

".4
".3

33.1

1.5
5.'
2.5

22"

37.5
22.0

20

'

.,."

...

"

I_ .....

19.3

33.3
20.1

'~'

Founded in 1903 in the Oklahoma Territory 1991 1992 1993


as a newspaper bU5iness, Ga~ord entered
6.51
6.97
6.71
radio brna<lcasting in 1928 and expanded
.99
1.25 1.03
into lelevision in 1949. In 1983, the campa.02
.32
.12
ny acquired OpryIand USA, which now in.05
.1a
.19
eludes an entertainment and ronvention.40
.42
.88
resort complex and several other entertain208
222
2.39
melll facilrties in Nash~lIe. In 1989, the
.LJlI
company purchased two cable- TV sys1em~
N!I"
51.1 28.'
which rt sold in 1995. On October 24.1991,
~1F
3.46 1.61
10.35 mi~on class A shares were sold
.4% 1."
n
throogh First BOs1Dnat $9.30 a share.
600. 643.1 622.6
CAPrTAl STRUCTURE u of 1J3M11
23.4% 22."
1crb11Delli $984.' mil. Due fn 5 Yrs $13.0 mil.
89.4 86.8 28.'
LT InteMt $31.0ml.
LT Delli $976.1 mil.
1..
29.4 66.'
Includes $613 milon 5% .wred obigatiDns,
73." 36-" 38.5'
seclnd by 10.9 million VllIo:::m sh.es.
4.61
10.77.
llnt&esl: no!. aMfiCI)
(57% rA Cap1)
3'
Leues, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $7.3 mil.
33.4 109 62.1
Pension Ulbility None
36O! 2993 3889
191.6
222.0
2'"

CURRENT POSrnON

28.3
18.8

,..". .".

..

IQI.'

1Q1.'

27.5

11111,1

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 000
".." 00000
000
0 0 0 0 0 1
Institutional OeclslDns

.....

29.5
17.8

'-'s recrssOol

DJFM"MJJA

...

16.3

21.00l~mNMF(=i::) W~NMFI~

Lri:

lIigh
SO (+45~1 10%
lciir
20
(-5%
Nil
Inskler Declskms

...,
.,~

26.3

~~~;irl""P5h

ce.,

Raum

GI!Il

,.,

18.6
12.0

13.4

.. .. ... ReIIItte Pnce Sttl11


2~~-1s:~ M3

Ann'ITGtaI
PrieI

I~CEHT
PRICE

Price stUil1J
Prict Grad Plin""'"
Earnklgs P~
,

",

15
35
15
:

II:

II' ,

I=' 20.331~TIO15.4(==: ill) ~r~


0.83 ~

HARLAND JOHN) NYSE.JH

2_

High:
26.1
24.4
3 l.DeelllZ12w:l
Low:
17.9
17.9
LEGENDS
SAFID
3 _~""'"
6..!i1c..5hF .... p'lh
TECHNICAL 3 _~ "".., . . Rrc.M Pril:e 5nIIgII
-.os
....
Siwded __ ~
1tBion
BETA .10 (1.00 ......
)

27.3
20.5

1R[UNESS

High

LoW

,.A

;J8.1
20.9

24.8

33.0
20.6

23.'
19.1

PROJECTIONS

PriaI
35

GMt ~~
l~70%\ 18"

25

1+25%i

, I".",

'II'

"

7%

"

Insider Decisions
DJFIIA.JJA
..,.
000000000
0pliN
000000000
111111 0 0 0 0 0 ,

,"

32.'
18.4

,I,
I

'111'

21.9
12.3

18.3
11.9

21.3
12.4

1.5%

24.9
13.1

,,, ....

".

-lif'

1,1

1 1 0

....~ n_
... -

'" TOT.IIT\.IIK
1 yr.
3yr.
5 yr.

42.0
40.4
32.2

lMn
"4.&

242
642

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992


7.13

7.12

8.34

8.85

9.18

9.94

10..35

13.07

1.14

1.34

1.60

1.85

2.03

2.09

2.22

2.53

.89

1.06

1.26

1.41

1.54

1.52

1.51

1.59

.45

.70

1.00

.81

.76

.n

A6

3.94

4.69

5.48

6.49

7.26

7.92

7.99

410
00
115
~I

~
.89
1.23
1.09
6.03
6.68
725
34.05 3U.4!l JO.44 JO.tiQ

.94
5.90

.83
1.42
1.55
1.40 Cap'ISpeIIdinU_sh
5.90
6.01
t75
7.50 BookYIIuII* sh
JO.92 J1.oti
J1.ur:I
Zll.64 ZIl.~ 2UlI 21."" ommon511s0llbtg'"
34.JJ 34." 34.52 37." 3T5 'T."
".'1
1T.
,1,
193
152
14.6 14.5 1'.3 14.7 15.' 129 ..., 15. 35.6 212 127 14.7 ~'" _ _ AY9"",1 Pi.....
US
1.44
1.33
1.26
1.11
1.08
.91
.89
.93
.85
'T
1.00 2.05
1.10
.n 9ll ~""
R_PIERdo
1.8%
1.7"
2.1"
3.0% 3.51 3.8% 3.9\
3.1"
4.5%
3.K
1.3"
1.9~
1.7% 2.0%
...
AWl!AnnHliY'd Y1l1d
CAPITAL STRUCTUJlE as of 112M1
318.1 445.0
519.5 521.3 561.6 609.4 562.1 566.1 102.5
7'20.1
150
190 SIIIalWI
21.'"
29.711 21.5" 25.'% 16.9'4 191'
17.'"
16.3% 17.0% '''~
Doerdna IIIn1in
TobIl
Debt $140.3 mill. Due m 5 Yrs ND.
LTDlbI$14O.3mill.
LTIntaresI$11.l'~
r- 221
29
35.1 41.5
48.3
42.1
39.3 42.4
40.6
48.5
5400 Sl.O O..,e:iaiont",i11
Ind. $6E6 mil 6.15%conv. lub. deb!ll., '11, of
.
.1
".0
.21
.1.0
Scaniun Inc.,CDfIY. into.44
mil rl Harland III f-."50;;:.7c+-",,,50"''+""'i7-I"':T.+'~:.'-I-.i~+-.~;+..c;;;-h~;+-T.':'i-h"";+-.i.~i.==~"'-"'i'------1--.~C.j
$25.17
(44'" of CaP')
362' 35.8" 38.1" 39.811 401' 41.311 41211 42.5" 31.7% 47.1" 45.0% ""0% InCOlMTuRd
(L T Int8rest earnec!: 7.1x)
15.5" 12.71 10.'% 9.8"
8.2Y. 8.31
3.6"
4.11
6.1% 4.0% "''''
5.2% NIiProIt .....
liS
1.53

U6
611

1.08
5.22

.u"

ts"

1-"
1100
1<0

.15
1"",
1...

17.0%
L;31,;:.O;.;,;+-",28"""':+'T.~-"'''''+'7.n-''';~+'''''H-''i~+--,';i;'H--'''i'''-+--''iirr~~I'"'-':;::~::'iE...----1--"F.i-l
11.0
55:0
52' '12
50.' 20.' 23.1
28.7 17.0
Nil_WI

UncaplmliDd

Luses.
Annual
Pen.lon L1ebiDty None

PId S10cl None


Cammon Stock 29.115.~
shs . (S6"'afcaP'O
as of 101B101
..... RKET C ...P: S580 mill. (SnullI Cep)

1.

2000

49.8

18.5

23.8

60.9

86.8

60.6

153.0

168.0

130.8

Aajs Payable
Deb! Due

26.7
__

29.3
__

32.5
__

~:nt Liab.

~::

CURRENT POSrrlON

11IIlLl

Cash Assets
Reoeivables
~
(Avg CsI)

U:; ~~

CUm!nt
Assets

~::

~~~

1:~

1-:-:=:::-==~-,-=,-=--'.C7-:==::-i

Put

:: Etfad,:;.rtI

:ig~

55"

114.6
222.1
14.8'
20.1%

114.1 109.4 101.1 106.4 191.6


125
125 Long-1M71101b1.(SniIII
flO
300
182.' 192.' 162.3 169.0 171.4
195
210 S'n.-_llnIIil
18.4'
8.1'
9.9% 16.7"
92% 110% 11.5% Rftw'nonTotIICep1
21.9" 1M'
141% 25.3% 16.7% 11.0% fJ.5" Rltumon Shr. Ealli1y
6.1'll. 10.1%
5.8%
8.5"
19.8% 11.8% 14.R
15.0% R.taintdloCcnEq
15.0%
68'
62"
45"
40%
22%
3D%
24"
21" AI OiY'dslll Nil Prof

:a :40

1'''''
'S""
1'"

John H. Harland CompiRy. the COOntry"s second Iargest financial slationer, is prinariy i'lVotved in prtrting checks end
relnld iIllms. Principal produds: MagnBlic Ink CMrM:IBr
RecogIJi.
tiJn enCOdBd
d'Iecks, deposilti:k8ts. and rM!1f!d forms b fin' insIiMiens and thei" aJstomn. Also pmm.s d8t1.bas8 martotrJg soIutOns to fn' i"Jstjutions. hough u.tellllg Proilas and OKRA..
BUSINESS:

seems

'i::

= '~.~.~;~

11.7 12.6 111.5 115.2


292..3
2562 183.T 203.'
19.4% 212% 18.0% 11.1"
20.1' 22.1% 28.6% 252%
9.1"
9.6% 12.0% 10.5%
58%
58%
57%

Harland"s share net should continue


to recover through 2002. At first blush.
this
improbable, given that the comSal.
1D~",
5.5% 11.5"
~ny's flagsWp printed products segment
''Cash FIaw"
2.5'" -3.0% 11.5"
(71 % of n1ne~month sales and 82% of oper~~~
-3.5"
-.2~~
ating income) is Uke1y to continue decllnBook Value
-3.0%
13.OS
ing. Check
printing sales are on an irQ\!ARlULT SALES(11III.l
revocable downward path. The earnings
.~~r "lr.31 Jun.30 SaP.3D Dec.31 ::
decrease. however. should be much :slower,
,.
143.5 135.3 147." 140.5 566.7 now
that
restructuring
moves have
1.
178.8 178." 173.7 171.6 702.5 rendered
the
check-printing
business
2DOO 176.7 171.7 179.8 192.5 72D.7 msaluch wlIlmore ebffibcJlent_u/liDirect
martheketJng
2101 191.3 187.3 179.6 111.'
750
es
pro a y s
er over
near
2102 115
110
200
205
7JO
term, though, as the anthrax. scare In~P8lSHARE'"
Wblts consumers from opening their jW1k
L:'
i
i~iii~i'
'
t
=M=:"iic3(-1
."J::""",.30;,-' ~="~.30C-'llec.3",,~I+y,,F:'~'~~
maU. On the positive side. Harland's
I
struggllng
software
solutions business
1191
.20
.13
.13
.29
.75 showed a profit In the September quarter
t!l9!
.32
.32
...
.32
1.3T ($425.000) far the Ilrst time since Harland
acquired Concentrex over a year ago. Al2D02
:25
.40
1.45 dth0llughthis segment will probably post a
QUARTERLYOIVI)EJI)SPAIJ"
e dt of $2.4 million in 200) on sales of
.~
r.31JUIt.30 Sea.31 Dec.31::
$120 million. it should generate net In~='-f"==,--"'"",'-'~,,,--""~'t-':':;;:-i come of $4 million In 2002. Meanwhile.
1191 .075
.015 .075 .075
.30 rigorous cost-reduction efforts are paying
1_
.075
.075 .075 .075
.30 off at the Scantron (software
services and
,.
.075
.075 .075 .075
.30 systems. for collectJons) unit (13% of sales,
2OCIO .075 .075
.075
.075
.3D 22% of prelax. Income). Now that Harland
zoot
.075 .075 .075

~::::s

~:W

Scanton prod. opticallTlilrt


reading eqprrt. and form ... Has abt.
4,876 emps., 6.918 shrhkh.. 'OIl depr. 1iItlt: 17.1%.OffJDi". conIrol
3.2% of can; Ri:hanl BUn & AssociIrIes LP. 142"'; Pbnl!ler
Ugni. 5.6%; FMR Corp .. 8.7%; ICUUp.. 7.9'" ('3101poxy).
Chnm . CEO & PI8S.: Tm C. rutr. Inc.: GA. Adik.: 2939 Mi.... Rd .
Dec4Itlr. GA 30035. Tel.: nO-5!J3.lilZ7. Web: ............. nd.nBl

has acquired Scanning Systems Inc .. we


look for the top line in this operation to
start
up,
~ll.
Cash flow continues strong. Although
in long-term
decline, the core checkg business, whim now rwts on a
ean cost :structure, Is a great cash-flow
generator. Robust cash now has been used
to buy back stock.. reduce long-term debt
and help consununate two recent additions
- Scanning Systems and DocuPrint Inc. A
hefty tPOedrttiOrtb
of ongoingt Free rtcashth
now Is
expec
0 e used
0 suppa
ese an d
other relatively minor prospective purchases. This is Important, since the markets
the software solutions and Scantron
groups operate In are highly competitive.
This is a "show me" stock. Investors are
weary of Harland's ongoing annual
restructuring charges. with :seemingly little
to show for them. As such.. ~ thJnk the
company will need to produce at least one
business with strong earnings potential,
and fairly soon. before inveslors buy into
the Harland recovery story. At present.
long-term
capital-gains
potential
is
below average.
Jeremy J. Butler
November 23, 2001

moving as

r.rlntln

(AI PrirT&y.-nngs1a end rl1997. dU!d


(BI Nad dividwJclmeetiIg lite Jan. Goes ex
rellvesinBnl: pIIn avabbIB.
Campany'l; Fme~1
Sbwngtb
themdlll"
Exdudes norncumng bues: "91. early Feb. Dividendpa,men1 daDI: about the (e) In millOllS.
Silletta Price SbblMty
3D; '96. S2.06,"97, 5tf. '98, $1.12; '00, 'B.
fnt dMarch ......
and Dee. Dl'tilend
Pnca Gnrwtb PaniItencI
Narl8IITIIJg$ report dUB IatB Janll3rY.
Eemlngs PrHic:tilblitJ
ID 21111, v-.e tilt ~
1'i!Ib5~'
f ....
mRsiill\ ca.iIelI ~
~
1MIIinIlll1a be ~~
_
& prgrir:IeIt
..arMies '" Ill' tilll __
ntEPUIIU~1l5NOT'i!l~
..ElOll.Nl'tEIlRORSOROMISSIONSHlRE
... 11lii~i5*E1J
...
e""irunIeIU5e.NDpM.
,
I
I'.
: II:
'" 1..,-1Ie tqIIDdIad. maid, 'IbeiI. --....:I i11llJ pa.d. -.:miI: ....
ba CI" -.l b ~
fII .-.fiIg.., .....
seni:e. p!Odad.

sept.

Ine.'"

'1""
.""

nlntills$13.7 mil f-'i,Ci15"Ji+-"i51"2i+:=;;Cirl---=:""+:,;:;7t--"",,"+-;-;:;+-"i""+-'i7~--"i~+-7.C~--=;~F.Cc;;o~'?':"i:::,,,---1c-';:<-1


90.9
31.9
23.1
11
38.6
53.0
54.4
27.5
1U
1.5.0 WorldnuClp'($I'I1i1
7D.O

~_._=

8++

70
10
40
II- ,

HARSCO CORDr. NYSEHSC


I

T.E'--SS

SAfTY
TECHNICAL

3 l..rIIele:llm.\~
3 _.11M9
3 _,""IJ1

High:
low:

'4.~
8.9

LEGENDS

5.5

Ca5h

15.~
11.4

fbJ('

19.8
13.9

M'~I1'

22.5
17.5

23.2
192

30.3
19.8

35.1
29.0

47.9
33.3

47.3
22.3

34.4
23.1

31.2
17.7

Target Price Range

38.0
23.6

2OQ.C 2005

2006
100

p 5h

BElA .10 (IJJO-1UlUl)

20lJ4.D6 PROJECT1ONS
Retum

Gain

:% ~ ~~~l
1~

....:.:~

lQJ.1
67

"
21158

...

AM'I TDtaI

Price

24
20

",
"",

Insider Decisions
F.A.JJAaO
..,
000001000
~.
0 0 3 1 1 0 0 1 0

0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
Institutional Decisions

I,'" .1.

,.

"

12

...... ..

UJ!

... TOT. RElURII "101

.. ..

IQM!
68

JQ2a1

eo

21390 21593

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989


21.13 19.25 21.52 2-4.19 25.78
1.85
1.13 220
1.61 129
1.02
.B4
1.10
.59
22
.44
.41
.52
Ji1
.60
.94
.so 1.12 1.31 129
1.83
8.06 8.17 1.97 11>3
.1
54.33 5
9.4
14,S
14,3
25.5
59.3
.16
1.01
.96
210
04.49
4.5% 3.8\
3.3% 3.71 4.1%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE

33.55
2.41
1.33
.60
1,36
8.33
5!1
8.1
,15
5.2%

as of 913CM11

TobIl Debt $828.1mil. Du. In 5 Yrs S5OO.0 mil.


LT Dlb1 $793.4 mil.
LT Inbrnt $47.0mil.
(Total i:rIIenI51 covenge: 3.81.)
(53% afCap'l)
leases, UncapitalDd Annual rentalS $33.1 nil
Penaion Uabllty None
Ph:! stod. None

34 .:32.1P~14
2 (T""S' 11.3)
RElATIVE 0 74 DIV'D 2.9%
IRAm

13J Pl RAm.
YlD

IIRECENT
PRICE

Common stock 39,962,978shs.

(47" arCap'~

.... RKET C...P: $1A billion (Mid Cap)


CURRENTPOSrrlON
1111
2001

It3DID1

ca~~
Reallvables

51.3
331.1

56.4
-413.7

Payable
Debt Due
Other

132..4
36.8
261.5

192.1

31.03 32.01
2.56 2.88
1.46
1.72
.62
.66
1.03
.84
9.1-4 9.15
.6.56
9.4
9.8
.60
59
-4.5" 3.9"
1943.1
9.3%
51.1
16.5
36.0'
3.9%
284.1
120.5
419.1
14.1"
16.0\
9.4%

1624.9
12.-4"
51.1
891
34.9\
5.5"
316.9
119.8
495.1
16.0"
18.0\
11.1%

41'

39"

28.70 26.96 29.85


2.80
3.~
420
1.41
1.54
2.09
.ro
.10
.74
1.68
1.81
211
10.56 11.54 12.-49
50.
50.10
1-4.5 13.1
12.2
.86
,SO
'2
3.-4" 3.3% 2.9%
1422.3 1351.7
13.8" 1-4.1"
69.6 99.6
69.-4 80.6
42.0"10 41.1\
4.9% 5.&"
182.1 254.4
364.9 3401
523.1 5811
8.9'1. 10.5'1'.
13.3\ 13.9\
6.6% 7.8%
51%

44"

31.40
4.60
2.39

34.64
4.62
2.64
.n
.80
3.03
3.05
13.14 16.604

13.-4 151
.84
.88
2.-4% 2.0%

1495.5 1551.6 1621.5


17.0" 17.8' 18.3%
104.9 109.-4 116.5
105.6 119.0 100.4
42.1% 38.0\ 38.0%
7.1"
HI
6.2"
145.3 214.6 3411
119.9 221.4 198.9
626.0 681.3 781.7
14.8% 1-41\ 11.1%
16.9\ 11.5% 12.8%
10.9"11011.9'1'. HI
35% 321
39'

38.35 42.94 50.36 52.25 5150 Saluplnh


5.28
5.65
6.43
US
7M CahFlow-,.1h
2.36
2..22
2.42
U5
110 EaminIiS JIll' IdI A
.89
.90
.95
.91
1.00 Dlv'dso.crdpll'lh"
31>3
4.31
4.52
1,. 1" C",'ISpondiniporlh
15.1-4 16.22 16.94 f1.75 flN BookYllulf*1Il C
5 40.07
ICcnnIOIlShsCu1sl'g
16.1
13.1
10.8 8ald1ill~_
A"IAnn'P/ERaIio
.81
.15
,n .... ~
R_ PIERII.
22'4
3.1% 3.61
.s rooAVII Ann'l DiY'dYWd
1135.4
18.4'
131.4
101.5
31.5%
61%
112.6
309.1
6853
11.8\
15.11

1120.8
18.1\
135.9
90.1
35.0%
5.3%
182.5
418.5
650.1
9.1'1'.
14.01
8.3"
37%
41"

9.8"

2004.7 XItO

11.55
IJ5
140
f.fl
11>
2115
U

2100SIIn(~1
17.1% 17.5% 11.0" O-....ll ...mn
159.1
175
175 D.-a~~~.1
96.8
J5.G
1~ Nil Prollllmlll
31.5% U",
n5" InCClllllTuRIII
4.8"
5.0% NIIProItIllrpn
1901
215
115 Warlinll~' ($nlll
n4.5
715
115 LonIlTIfII DIbI (SnIII)
6741
710
755 Sk~.wt;
81% 1.5% '.0% RnrmonToIJICIp'
14.4% 13.5% 1.0% Rn.mOll SIu", E~
8 S"
I.n 1.5% Rn.inMI ill Coni Eq
39% .,"
3ft AlDIY'dsloNIlProi

4.5"

lWii'

B.OO
f4.0

.15
12"

2400
1l~
U5
135
W%

5.'"
,.
275
190
115%

15.n
10.0'%
.J.nI;

=i~:-~~~~~
F~:'~

458.3

BUStNESS: Harsc:c Corporation is a manufacturing


and lliIfVut
cunpan,. Has Ihnle operating groups: Mill Services (offen 5Bl'Vi:es

Defense Seglfllilltl jont ventln


wMi FMC Carp. sc*I 1lW7 (DWI'IIld
40"1'.); acqued MuftiServ 8193, SGB 6100. Has 8 divs.; about

159.6
34.7

iIg and conaeta IDnnng BqLlip., rnc*Ig granulllS); and Gas and
F1ui1 Control (M pipe fAngs, gas mni'oWaxltaiwnent
pnxIucIs).

Hathaway.
Telephone:

The slowdown
in capital
spending
has
hampered revenue at Harsco. In the
third quarter. the company reported a
slight drop in sales compared to the same
period a year ago. TIle Mill SeIVices (35%

the U .. economy in recession. overseas


operations (50% or sales), particularly 5GB
and the global division of Mill SelVices,
are
ptcelkJng up dsome of the slack.
Neverth ess, the
ollar remains strong.

revenue decl1nes. Demand from steel mills


CIlIQUAJlTERL'Y:Wj~~ Full is on the decl1ne. particularly In the U.s..
_lI4ar "r.31 Jun.3D S.1l..3DDec:,31 Y.-r where prices are under pressure from ror1. 401.2 456.9 446.2 431.1 1735.4elgn dumping. The Gas and Auld Control
1.
405.1 431.4 426.0 458.3 1720.8unit, with the exception of the natw-al gas
2DOO
line. is losing ground amid a -rvrli2001 457.5
'26.6 465.6
532.3 541.4
530.9 540.2
.00.2 2004.7product
_
J2OO2.fID 5U NCI m 2100 caI downturn. Sales at both segments are
unllkely to improve in 2002.
C111- EARJaNGS
PER~~ A
Full The integration
of SGB is now bearing
ndar "r.31 Jun.3D Sf
Dec.31Yur fnrlt. Sales for the InfrastIueture
unit,
1.
.52
.n .57 .55 2.36 which assimilated 5GB last June, were up
.35 .58 .64 .65 2.22 year over year in the third quarter despite
::
.50 .70 .56 .65 2.42 poor economic condJt:1ons for constIuetion.

soon Improve the balance sheet. Management has also decreased capital spending In an effort to bolster working capital
This should enable the company to reduce
most of the over $300 m1ll1on in long-term
debt It assumed from 5GB and to increase
dividends to shareholders.
Over the next 3 to 5 years. Hanlco will
have a tough time enhancing
earnings. Although margins should improve as
the company approaches Its target of 70%
of revenue derived from services. the
growth prospects for most of its niche mar'Ibketsares/1aresIlO'
partihacularrtly ap~In!l.
ese
ve
sen 1,,10 SlIlce our

55.8

E::::Cst) :~ ~:~ ;i~:us:~:.a:.:~::==:,1=:=:;:: ;~4~;n=,s


7,:1

Am;s

62.3
281.8

2944

,::Cu::""::::":.:Lia::'::b::..
__ --=4::"'::
.::...--.:536=.:::2_-.:488=:,'-l
r
ANNU"'L RATES l:~

;::ue(plr~l
''Cash Flow"

Past

Est'd'la-'.

4.5% 5~~%
12.5% 10.5%

to:.'o~
8.0%

p.n Box 8MB, Can1l Hi" PA 17001.


717-763-7064.InIErnet. www.harsc:o.can.

Inc.: DE.

Addr.:

5~UB'~~~:~::~ ~g~:~~
~~:~:~':~~:~}
~~~~
~~~~~:;~i::;;
~h:~::::dd

1.

lOO2

:::

:~

:~

:~

1.

.22

.22

.22

.22

p~thIManagemen,
s segment

has Improved
pro8,abUityd
th
rough
cost-cuttlng an

of

~~M:;n::~~~MD~1
::.80 ~r:::
~ u:,m~~::~~ras~~year
:::;~=~:
I~vi~~C~~~ t1~
1117 .20 .20 .20 .20
was up over 150% despite a revenue
ahead. Nevertheless, its current qtwa

in-

::~
lOOt

'24

:~:'4

~~
:24
:%

.88

::J.'11

J'92.

crease of only 6% in the quarter.


Fdorebllgn_~I""edrsifiordcatl~n

ou e~g

sw

mtion has reduced its appreciation

hasHarscobecomWletha t1RaIbe'rt2EOOD4-200B_"..,'o subp;'t


__
.or
.
o.
U
W.
~~"

be

(AI Prinwy shnsllwugh


1997; dikltlld....
5t!, W, $3.08. 2000 q~
~ngs
Iv- FIlJl di'ld payment dates' 15lh of Feb. May,
Com.-n'"
Financial Shnlllh
after. EJ:d. nOllfllCll'J1ng
gails ~osses): '86,
LnS do not Nll to tlUl due kJ rotJndng. NBX! Aug., and Nov . DiY'dreiIY. pIIInavailabill.
stock's Prka StabiItJ
(6): '92, (14); '93, 34t!; '94, 19; '!IS, (1&);
egs. rpl. due late J'InLla!y. (8) Next diY'd mtg.
(C) Includes mlangibles. In "00: 5369.2 mil.,
Price Growth PlirsistMa
'01, (20). Exclldes gan on disc.ops.: '90, 5: II rMI-MardJ. Next ex data n earIf Jan. ApS9.27Jsh.(D) In mlions,.:Ij. b sb;:\ spll
~E.ml'" PmllcteDlJ
CI zml. VM 1M NIi5hiII. lilt. AI Ii:INs rsmecI. FICNII llIlIIerill ~ ae.__
fnn _
~
to be'" .,.i!I. pwiSed ....
--*s ~lIlY ti1..
rnPUBUSKRIS IJTR~5ellORNtrlIlRORSOROMSSiONSHER~".
III ., be IqI1Dml. leal. ...
l1li..-..:1 illIlJ " ...
~
l1li 1lI.- .....

TtB~il;~Ia"SlllDmilWs_,_=
.-. b gnr-.g 1III..uciIIJ."

prilell

"iltlrnlllIfIl!,lIiapM
*dIcn: ~
senD II pllMl

I',

poten-

'8 2001
r~,
B....

65
40

80
II:

II. ,

HARTEHANKS INC. NYSE-HHS

24 97' IRATIO
IpA: 19 8 (r"1nt,:21,1) RElATIVE 1 07' 11IIV'D
0.5%
1Itd,",MlF
P.ERATIO ! I

lRECENT

IPRICE

YlJ)

6,5
5,0

11.3
6,2

72
5,9

19.3
12.7

14.3

9,'

28.5
17.3

28.4
19.6

29,3
19.1

25.9
20.5

or-'

3-{l1-2

,'"

, ,

II,',

,.'
.,1
.
..,

::~,

310: 31~

Harto-Hanks

t......

51 sh.res

31S:

~ the successor

to

'10 TOT. RET1.JRN 1M11


~

. ..

4.

._

2.0

a news-

.. ..

1 yr.
J yr.
5 yr.

'\:""

5.8

-.4.6

-3.2

24.2

82.8

642

1991 1992 1993 1994


~=+'-""'+'~'+''''-!~'-"'!'!..i-!..!:~.!.!:~f!-!~I-!-'=+''=-+=='-f'="+''-'''====''-I'='-l

.. .. &5'1 9.13
paper business foonded in lie 1920's by
.. .. d.35 BI
Houston Harte and Bernard Hanks. The
..
.. d1.1G
company first went public in 1972and, in
.'1
..
..
.. ..
1984,was taken privale in a management >-....:..:+-....:..:+~;+---;.;+--e:rl....:..:::;..+-:;;..jf-~l-C;;C+-..:;;+-7rt----.:;~;=.~~~~-+....:..:~

...

..
..
25
..
..
1...
1.96
Hanks made its retum to 1I1e New York
>--+-....:..:+~rt-.,;:;;;+-,;;;rl-,;~.....:.:;;;..Ih;c,;;.-hrn-hrn+mrt-m;rt;;=::=RE:;.;:=.+...;;:ii-l
..
.. ".35 55.D3
Stock Exchange.
..
..
-. 15..4 16.'
19,'
172
16,0
13.9
20.'
~~
__
A'gAnn'IPIE....
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as of!lJ1CW1
.. .. .. 1.01 1.10 1.22 1.57 1.35 1.36 1.35- _ ""_ ._ PIE.do
..
..
.. ,4% .1% .1%
Total Debt $40.1 milion
-J%
,3%
,4%
'
A'9 Ann'l o;~d YIoId
led ~eraged

bu)<llJlln

a 1993IPO,

Hart ..

..

LasM,

Uncapibl1izMl $23.1 milian

P.nslon liability None 11'00 'is. none in '99.


ptd

(93% of CaP')

21.7
1.3

..

NM'

--

11154.3
218.8
41.4

..
..

Stock None

CorrmDn Stoctl 63,032,119 shs.


.s of 101J1/01

..
..
..

'13,3
20.3%

..
..
..
..
..

8.0%
5,6%
5.6%

..

463.5
513.6
19,0-. 19.4%
162
16.'
1145,5
13.8
.. .47.8%
4.6'7i
NM'

SID
18,9%
16.9

30.9
45.4\

665~
11.'"
31.1

838<
15.6%
11.5

748.5
17.5%
19,0

493

44.3

61.1

43.6%

41.1%

41.2%

819.8
18.4%
34.8

960,8
18,9%
43.7

40.6\

40.2%

n..s

81.9

5.81

1.4\

6.9'

9.0%

Uti

8.5%

34,'
192,9

'1.8
220.0

55.5
118"

141.7
..

109.3
..

66,1
5.0

85,9
65.'

83B
107.6
NMF 8.1%
NM' 11.1%
NM' 221%

165.1

252.7

5662

577.1

571.6

551.0

31.'

310,1

..

..

920
20.'"
....
.0.0
40.0%

.. '"

.'"

...
SoIoI($nIII)
24'"
35.0 Doproclllion(lnl)

lJDO
21.'"
43'

IeI.D Nit
fO.~ IIICIIIHTuRN
Uti NIIProltlllrp

40.0%

n.-ri..li_

Prvftt'""

13. W..... gCoplllmlD)


....
laogTom DobI(1nIII)
5t5

'U
1.15

DO Stn.Equity($nIiI1

US
fa.""
'20
....
'10

3 RI6ed

DlEUlfESS

TECHNICAL
_
PricI

PROJECT!JN~_
Ann' TCIIIl
G*I

Hi'" ,.

Hlgl'1:

13.8

16.8

Low:

8.5

10.6

Return

t"

Jm.,

as

87
~

7oJ~

38.3
21.1

40.'
32.1

saz...

36.3

....

".3
42.8

".

37.8

&::n1.

r
".

.tta....

p.~m12..0

73
71~
l~dItd

2000

9130111

63.0

54.0

5Z.0

1338.0
320.0
678.0

1022.0
259.0
261.0

877.0
210.0
205.0

1.1.
8.75

IDH
26.31
169.3
208.'
33.1'
7.5'
3m
316.9
13681
13.4'
1'1%

2000.3
25.6%
106.0
307.9
32..8'
14.9'
".0
345.0
887.0
25.7'
30%

1866.0
25.0%
73.0
299.0
33.4'
16.0'
0110.0
.419.0
690.0
27.7'
43.31

2145.0 3248.0
2'.0%
23.9%
108.0 250.0
2016.0 209.0
321'
30.3%
11.5'
6.4"
'T7.0 d221.0
3096.0 1m.o
559.0 863.0
8.0'
10.6%
....0% 1'.2%

24.0%

291%

25.4%

NMF

3.9%

I! 3%

12.1%

60'

46"

36'

BUSINESS: Hercules

19.8%

31%

Inc. is _ m-.rlllCl,

~
31U
70.7

R_ ,P"..

16.'
1.18

2821.0 24272
26.0% 23."
148.0 132.5
2016.1 309.1
32.9% 31.1'
8.7'4 12.n.
3801.8 180.'
3071 297.9
1294.1 1081.9
16.3' 23.4%
19.0% 28.%

111%

~
-67.0
-78.6

11.
1.56
1.801 1.7<
.75
.110C... I_IP
... "
7.18 5.M
8.11
7..59 ll5
1.Ta BoakYlhltplnh
96.07 100.83 106.39 107.54 lQ9.00 nUG
cnmon 5111Q.ltsrg l;
15.'
1'..
1'.1
245 ~~
__
A" ...
.92
.81
.86
1.60
:;;; '.:
PIERole
2.1'4 2.7%
3.6% 3.8'
Ayu......
n' D1w'd
Y"1IId

31'
workfWije

33%

.42%

producer of

ID%...........

31~2.0 2m
Jl1.5 WIII~
26."
1&"'
246.0
UO
145 DlplKidan 111111)
n.o
HI
100 No1PloIlI1nllI
39.0'
NW 40.11%m:or-TuRn
2.3'
NIF
...'" NIIIProIt....
100.0
1~'
".0 W_Ic..,'lllnm)
2342.0 2DOO 1100 Lang1.-m Debt~
816.0
745
us 91r,~EauitrISrlli
4.3% ".0%
7,0% RIIIurn lIII 10lil Cap'I
8.8% H/IF 11'" R_ '" S1w. E.uiI'I

14.6%

NMF

40'

NMF

NfIF

U~

HI

Rn.ined

tDCOIII

Eq

"
_

...
11.45
nUll

t.'
...
HI
%700
11'"
130
,I>
411.01
U"
50.'
130Cl
1210
..,,,
13.'"
11'"

Nil AlOiY'dstoNI1Prof

III

BetzDearbom, 1008. 2000 dep. nrtll: .4.8%.EIfi'n3led plaid age:

;:8 ~~:8m:8=:e::,re::,~~u=~~~:_:~~::
~=d~~::~a:;~1~3:=;=::t

ScId B9cln:lnics & Pmting, 12195;Aerospace, :W5; Liquid Molding


Resins, 10i94; Padl3ging Fims, 41.M; Tasiutliillk8r, 3197.Acqul'ed
the lmIalling 50% r:I the FiberVrsionsJOinI venture, UJ8. Acquftd

,;:~:g:ig ::ig Hercules


stock Is down sharply
price since the company put itself

in
up
for sale last faU. Many investors expectSYII.
3.0%
-1.",
e d th e company t 0 be acqu Ired by thI s
''CilsIIFIow"
8.0%
.5%
...5.,",
jnncture,
espedally once International
16.0%
-4.0%
....3.OK
Spedalty Products. a 9.9% equity holder of
""'''IV
2.5%
3.5%
NMF
H
_..
Book Villue
-6.5% -8.0%
8.5"
eU;U1e5 stock, launched a successful
lIIJARTERLY
SAl!S (hill
proxy light In May for three spots on the
CD- .ar.31 Jun.30 S;=-J;'- Dee.31 ::.
board
of directors. For many, the involve
_nd_r
IIi'IUV
ment of ISP Chief Executive Samuel
1.
430.0 445.0 510.0 760.0 2145.0 Heyman gives credence to the sales pro1191 791.0 817.0 813.0 827.0 3248.0 cess, given his successful track
record
2ODO 798.0 822.0 815.0 717.0 3152.0 delivering value to shareholders of other
200' 7ll2.0 670.0 637.0 m
_
2002 stIO
100
'25
650
2475
finns in the past. TIlls particular situation
EARNIIGSPER SfIAREA
has been exacerbated, however, by the
.~~r IIlr.31 Jun.30 SeD.30 Dec.:!1 ::~
poor global eronomy. Many
of Hercules'
~=-t=~:'-':::::;:;:-=""-"'''''''t-';;:;;;-J most important end markets, such as the
1198
.70
.n .74 .33 2.54 paper and water-treatment industries, are
.43
.58
.55
.46 oz.01 extremely sensitive to broader macro2001
.35
.24
.13 dJl5
.01 economic trends.
Consolidation in the
2011 d.09 d.01
.02
.01
N' paper industry has been another hurdle to
2002
.lD
.lD
.25
.25
.10
QUARTBUYDNIlEtllSPMI..
Ful
overcome; the company and its compede~~
Mar.31 JudO Sea,3D Dec.31 Vur tors just do not have the same
pricing
f:wer in this market that they did just a
"""191 .25
.25
.25
.25
, .00 ew years ago. Stlll,
17 1. 08We look for Hercules~ latest round of
. 17 . 17 .IT.
1999
1.DB restructuring initiatives to begin sup__
.17
.17
.17
.17
,;
:~7
.62 porting SOJIle meaningful
bottom-line

r.;;;;;;;;=;;;;~-;;:ci'=-;;::::::-;::::;-;;;:;;;;;i
ANNUAl. RATES Past
oIcllqeu-1fI1
llYl1.
Sales
2.0%

Put Est'd ... 10

tD.......

~~n.",,".

1.

-'!! :~

::

ISP, 9.9%. Cl1alman _rid Chief EJ:ec:uIMl orfir. Wiiam H. 'Jcyce.


IncorpcRted: Delilwllnl. Acknss: HllraJes Plaza, Wiml1gtDn, DE
19894. Telephone: 302-594-5000.InIen\IIt 1ItIp:J/WWW.herc.com

improvement.
The COI1lpany annonnced
in September a plan to cut $100 million
out of the annual oost base, which should
begin to add to profits as early as the December quarter. with the remainder likely
to rome
in the flnt half of 2002. Progress
here could become a positive sentiment
driver
for these
shares. following
four
years of share-net decllnes.
There does appear to be some unrea.Ib.ed value here. Our sUIn...()f-the-parts
analysis suggests that Hercules
could
eventually obtain a takeout price in the
low- to mid-teens. But that potential gain
does not come without a good deal oC risk.
The fact that the sales process
has taken
so long is espedally disconcerting, as is
management's
inability
to stem
the
bottom-line declines over the last couple of
years. Potential sultors may be looking for
evidence that they would be able to build
II
1
pro 15 themse ves.
Rick S. Plummer
December 21. 2(J()J
CASH POSITION

102'J11,

wart.i1g Capbl to

HMF

NNF

IIMaIIIits 01
UId.
iIUmlIIIlI.~paIl

......
~

1I3CIt'It

87%
4'"

/!26;

'90 (21-,); '93, {'$1.88~ '94, 24; '95, 21-,; '91,


dencl suspended as cl1tWO. (C) In mi., ild~
CI 21111, va.r u.e I'ld5hilI. Int. AI rirIIU 11l5CI\'fII. FId1III IlIIleNl is cailined IralI ~
~
II be ~
... is ~
T1iI'\JBl.&R IS I)T R[~SlBlElORJI('(
RRORS OR OIoISSIONSH1U.I\I. Tlli5plll:1liatalis shIy b~_._H:"i'_""""
d IIIIJ'
Ie5CII:I. *ncI a ~
il-, JD*d.1I!Qri: a ~ faaL .1ISIll1a ~
a.-tdilg,lI'IJ ....
a ~

5oY.... Ay'"g

CIDWlll:AaMb; m C~nt u.~1J:


C.. h & Equiw',1DClnWnt U.bfiII:

(A) Pm.y 8!milg! ~ 199fi. DikJled tlIn'98, ($2. .... ); '99, (38;); '00, 2~; "01, 22.. fts" tied: spll (D) Doesn' IKIddue to changllg
1Ifta". EJ:dudes ROIIIIlW'". gailll (bs:ses~ "85,
Includes unusl.lli charge: ~1, 30; 119,3;.
sha1iJ balse.
6t; '86, 10;"87,53.65; '88, (15);'89, (11); Nexl 8aI111lgsreparl d.1ld8 Januo.y. (B)Diri-

.'!piilaCIlL

1)'1'.
3)'1'.
5)T.

DIte III. 5 VIS NA


LT Internt $180 mil
(60%ofCap1)

1999

",TOtRETURII'1101
TIIS VLAMH.

I I

~...

8.0
".0

CAP; $1.1 binion (Mid Cap)

Liab.

6..

2928.9 2864.9
,.."
17."
180.4 171.8
LTDebl$2022mil
!M.9 167.9
(Inl8f1lSl ncl aMlnld)
45.8' 35.5'
Uues, Uneapltallud Annuall8nlals $43.0 mil
3.2% 5.9'
Pension liability None
6016.7 '7'.'
483.0 430.8
PM Stock $623 mill
PId Diy. NA
(18%of Cap'Q 1918.4 1746.4
COfIVIlon Stock 108,482,312
shs. (22% of CapQ 4.8% 8.5%
'.9%
9.6%

~~I(tFO}
Cummt Assets
Acds PByilble
Debt Due

Nil

20.0

...

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as Ilf S1/3M11

C8511Ass8tl

28.0
11.4

'I

1.1, 1.7,

CURRENTPOSrrlON
f.lLj

40.7
22A

1 05 lIIV'D
YlD

1',1"
11'1'1

1.56 1.40
1.82 ~10
1.93
1.53 1.15 1.221."
1.08
10.37 1.4.96 14.86 13.59 13.18 13.10 13.38 U.l1 11.10
9.91
163.
1
6.
17ST
1
14O.5Il 14D.D8 130.57 12Z.5
1
161
".,

1'.6

12.3
26.0
1'-7
17.1 17.7 16.6
1.32
.97
.16
1.10
.'
.91
118
.89
1.01
1.1'
11<
(4%
3.4% 20.4% 4.3'
4.8% 6.8% 5.6% 4.1"
2.7% 2.1%

MARKET

RELATNE
PERA1.

'r.,

1.-.
9.04

Tolal Debt S2227 nil

51A
24.6

",

"

2.3

11'1'

".

(~.ir.l ""

IQtllI

21.3
14.9

~~n~r~ssicrt

laW
10
,+5%1
1....Id.r Decision.
JFIIAIIJJAS
.. ..,. 000000000
~.
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
., ..
00000
1 000
InsUtuUonal Decision.
.. ..,.
::'~l

IPRICE

LEGENDS
451 C.'1I rt.. - P sh
. , RNlive PrEe Strength
lb.' spWi 'WI

(llIO -1AirRt)

.l5

I[fA

12121,(11

4 _ .. .".,
3 _ .. ,......

SAFElY

lip~ 19 4(TrOIngoNIlF)

M,di.,:I7]
9 70'IRA1

IRECENT

HERCULES INC. NYSE-HPC

5IS'fi2. ~

S_.

n.

&tUI.,.

Cemp_,,"
FktanciIJ Sbnglfl
Stock's Price
Price Growth PwlIstMIce
_Earnings p, Ilitbbll1y
I

'.

,II.

C++
55

20
2S

II

HILLENBRAND IND. INYSEHBI

lREUNESS

3 ~rd

SAFm

2
3

TECHNICAL

High:
low:

~Wl

RIi.rlI2l2Il

35.~
18,B

LEGENDS
I CI511

r.-:,,1JI

n.D

""0"."'"

1.6%
43.6
33.5

48.6
36.5

43.6
26.6

34.1
27.0

40.3
31.9

51.5
35.5

2......
PriCi

.. ..,
0,...
'~I

Gain

II"",,,

'';75%\ 16"

1"30%1

9.59
1.48
.16

124

1.54

1.63

3.31

3.77
(f.1u

4.14
7.

4.74
7 .

5.46
4

.98

1.17
1.3%

1.51.

.18

,7>

16.1 1.~
1.34

115

1.31.

1.51.

Common Stock 62,79',000

SM.

(76% of Capij

MARKETCAP; $3A billion (Mid Cap)


CURRENT POSITION 1199
2000
C8:-~

RetelVilbles
~e~

(LIFO)

Curren!. Assets
AcdI; P.yab"
Debt Due
Othar

Cu~nlUab.

811'01

170

132

2Pi7

413
1~
782
80
52

-407
1~

337

239

214
282

724

68
__

'Jg

----si7
51
_

8.911
71.
20.4
1.21
1.'"

"

"I

80
64

24
20

9.78

25.9

1198.9
21.1%
95.0
89.2
38.8%
7.4%

1429.8
21.3%
115.3
105.5
38.4"
7.4"

156.7

279.0

284.0

3JJ72

103.6
490.8
15.9'.4
18.2%
13.9%
24'

185.1
547.7
15.7%
19.3%
14.1%
24%

107.9
639.9
20.31
22.9%
17.9%
22%

208.7
693.5
16.6'
20.51
14.61

1.57
.9%

10.63

11.44

7 .

19.0
1.21
1.31

1.51
1.3%

None

7.65

".,

Annulil renti!t~ $19.0 rril

Lusts, UnCllpltal;tsd

6.76

5.96

CAPITALSTRUCTURE as of 1/1R1
Total Deb! $302.0 mil. Du. In 5 Yn $55.0ml.
LT Deb! $302.0 mill.
LT ln1erm: $Z4.0 mil.
(L T iIIeres1.arned:
11..!b:;!l:Jta1 rrtmest
aM!IiIgI: 'O.OX)
(24% of Clp1)

Pensioll UablNtr
Pkt Stoct None

100

"
'2

'" TOT. RE1lJfBI M1

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 I~VALUEUNEPJ8.IlC.
04-16
4UO
15.11 16.50 19.97 20.32 22.24 23.15 24.48 25.92 30.13 32.11 33.59 33.70 .J5.55 R.... llllpwsh AF
2.54
3.08
3.64
3.38
3.47
3.36
3.18
5.01
3.88
3.92
4.. US "Cah Flow" pII' III
t70
2.32
llF
1.03 112
1.47
2.06
2.00
1.64
1.90
228
2.73
214
2..47
115
120Elmlnglpl'l'sh
4.15
.29
.35
.45
.57
.60
.62
.66
.n
.78
.80
.If
.If D/Y'ds Dtd'd pII'''' C
.M
~
.76
1.36
1.50
1.27
1.48
1.34
1.24
1.33
1.24
1.70
1.45
1.55 Cap'lSptndlngpll'M
1,.
1.02

11.86 15.34
1.86
2.10
.93
1.01

.n

'4.4

2005 2006

48
40
32

. ...

.14

14.0

20~

... ..

.I 1

.42

1.14
2.3'

Target Price Range

58.5
41.6

.. .'
F""-'"'-I--+-___1--+_--t-'--"+-..,-+......,~~_,_+'""':':'O'I_-+-___1--+-___1--+_-__+--+

.14

n.f:J

I,I'

1,,1

8"

J F A.
J J A
010000000
002000020
0 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 0

8.32
1.29
.65

56.4
28.8

p!qL'

.,

Ann'ITDtI.l
RetLm

6.53
.19
.42

57.1
26.1

---

PROJECTIONS

High 95

64.7
44.4

______

Ifm Jll (1.110. MiU)

I.JiIr
70
Insider D-=islons

24.~
15.1

17.7
1.16
1.6%

18.u
1.20
2.0%

18.tI
1.17
1.8%

1447.9 15n.0
24ft
21.6%
112.7
97.5
148.5 '42.0
37.8'
38.1"
10.1'
9.0"

1624.9
20.5"
127.6
115.7

1684.0
19.",

29%

12.93
.51.55
10.8
1.08
1.5%

132.0
41.3%
7.8'

1776.0
20.6"
102.0
157.0
39.4%
8.8"

339~

374.0

462.0

206.8
745.8
13.0'
15.5%
9.81
37%

204.0
787.0
14.1%
16.8%
11.31
33%

203.0
886.0
15.2%
17.7%
12.6%
29%

40.9"
7."

99.0

14.34

13.19

13.32

21.u
1.09
1.3%

18.4
1.05
1.9%

14.2
.94
2.3%

2001.0
18.8%
149.0
184.0
37.2"

2047.0
17.0%
98.0
148.3

2096.0
16.0"

91%
483.0

7.2"

303.0
952.0
15.5%
19.3"
14.3%

26%

BUSINESS: Hillenbrand IndustriIiIs, Inc.," hDkling CD. HeBtltlCare Oiv., (53% of "00 11M., 42% of op. iJc.) consists of: Hill-Rom
Co., which makes BcI)lsl. haspilal beds, si1Ik:tKn, hospitaklxm
fmuIIn, and iEhilBdlnI
SystlllllS designed b meet the II08lls rI
Cliical tanl and pem8la1 prtlVidtin. Funrnl S8I\'i::8s DiY., (47% of
"00 revs., 58% of op. 1'1C.) conSI5bi of the Bidesvie Castel Co.

36A%
411.0
302.0
838.0
14.0%

17.7%
11.5%
35%

15.75

11.50 BookYllulpll'M

~~I-_
~~
.... ~

CIIIIIlIOIl s
II
A:,gAnnlPIERoD
~.PlERdo
AvgAnnHJiY'dY"1IIcI

2115 UfO RlMlluuls.-l) AF


fl.O" flSl :>c-Dna lIargin
89.0
15.0 55.0 DIpI'Iddon{SnI)
155.6
f.
200 PHtPnlltlW) F
36.0% 35.0%
310% InCGI'MTuRali
7.4%
l5%
U" NIIPnlftlM.
442.0
550
150 W_,C'fl'IIInoWI
302.0
JOO JOO LqTIml DIb1.~1
831.0
JIll
1150 Shr:Eaultv{$rllilll
14.7'
f".5%
Rnum on ToUII CIp'I
18.7% 110%
f7.", Rnm 011 Shr. EqUity
12.7% 110% 11,5% RNiMdto CmIl Eq
32"
zn m AlDiY'dstoNIlPtoi

' '.5%

2400
17.0
1.15

1.2'''
2175
20.0%
110
210
35.0%

faB
t70
.JOO
112.5
15.0%
17.0%
115"

20"

(manuiac:tures ClsIt&l:S) and FtnIhought,


a prtJid8r cffuner.ll plan.
ning products. St!. MecIet:o 7198. BLOCK Mcldicll 7195, Ha5 .po
pox. 10,800 erTl'1D)V8S, 18,'00 stthkIr. Ot. an:f olf. own 28.'% or
sb:t (4101 pruxyl. Chllrman: R.J. I-Uritnbrand. Pnlsiden1 and CEO:
FrBderic:kW. Rockwood. Ine..:IN. Address: 700 Stale Rl. 48, Bat...
v*, IN 47006. Tel.: 812934-8400. 1ntBrn8t www.hilltnbrand.cml.

252

309 Hillenbrand
Industries
should finish
and the company's long-tenn debt has
fiscal 2001 (ends November 30th) in remained around 25% of total capital. AdANNUALRATES Pat
Put
Est'd .... 00 decent fashion
It appears that hospitals dltionally. we estimate that capital spend~~~.,)
tl~5%
still have their wallets open. despite cur- ing will remain under restraint over the
''Cash Flow"
7.5%
4.0%
S.mci
rent market conditions. As a result, HiJInext three to five years. 1ba.t said. we look
EBrni'1gs
9.5%
5.5%
12.0%
Rom, the company's healthcare bus1neeiS,
for Hillenbrand to utl1ize its substantial
1~~~ ~]~
,;:~
has increased shipments to its acute-care
cash now to repurchase shares and/or
customers and has a full order bacl<1og. make acquisitions (not Included In our
~I
ClUAR18U.YREVEMJES($.n)A :::.,
Additionally. more units in use. better
projections), probably on the healthcare
En. F,b.P,r 1111)'
P,rAug.Per Nov."
~.. r pricing at acute-care fadlltles, and In- side of the business.
1. 419 5C!
483 531 2001 creased marltet share should help advance The company
should
deliver
mid1.
516
524 492
481
526 2D96
2041 Hut-Rom's rentals segment this vp~r. single-diaitDO annual revenue ~cnIins out
_
614
503
587
2001
525 525 514.
551 21t5 However. last year's fourth-quarter results
to 2004-2006. As Hillenbrand is a leadIng
2002 535
ND
5JO
105
221D
benefited from an extra .week of sales. supplier of products and services in two
t-;;;=.:t="-:::::::='=:'::':=~~-F0:';;c-1 which will make revenue comparisons noncycllcal industries (i.e. funeral and
~~
EARMilGSPER SHAREA.
:.::..
tough. As such, we estimate fiscal 200] to- healthcare), we are optinrlstlc that it will
En. Flb.PlrIlIl)'P.rAug.Plr
NoY.Pe
Y_r
tal revenues to increase ]%. year
over be able to continue to increase
sales over
,.
.64 .66 .63 .80 2.73 year, to $2.12 billlon. However.
the next several years. However.
1999 .67 .62 .35 .60 2.24 Operating margins should widen this
This issue's 3- to 5-year totaI-retunJ.
year. Savings from the reallgrunent of the potential is weD below the laIue Line
2D02 .&5 .12 .73 1.10 1.1GHill-Rom segment. ~ombined with better
median.
The solid earnings gains we
ClUARTERLTDIVIlENDSPAlDc Full pricing, probably will translate into a 200
project over that time frame appear to al;.:~
lI.r.31 Jun.30 Sep,30Dec.31Year basis-point increase. In turn. we look for ready be included. in the stock's price. St1ll,
r.;~-t=~'--':;;::;'-==;;~-":~+~;..jlow double-digit earnings gains In 200 1.
we believe these good-quality shares may
11197.165 .165 .165 .165 .66 Hillenbrand
has ample cash flow and
be a valid choice in the current market
1191 .18 .'8
.18 .18
.n an exceUent financial conditiolL Cash (despite the Average Timeliness rank),
1199 .195
.195
.195
.78
2000
20
20 .195
20
20
80 an d cash equiv al ents h ave ~-Il3ICn$155 mil- given th err recession-resistant nature.
2001 :21
:21
:21
.
liDn. to $281 mlllJon since November 2000 Justin T: Sebastiana
November Z. 2001
AJFlSad,.. .nds s.t. nur8It Now'. 3D.
'00, (3j); 1Q "01, (21;). Next ..
rpl du. mit- ID) Ind. intang. In 2000: $181.0 miL, $2.88IstL~~pany's
Flnanclll S1l'Mlgltl
A

f7.=':::=::;;;;:;:---;:,::::-'::':,-;;::7:;:;;:-:::';;:-J

5J~% tDrs:

=~:u.
~",,-;r::=====""'=--r~=-l

J -

:: :~:~:~:: i~

8) Prim ..
through 1997, diLlIlerNI'B;
Jan. (C) Next di'id meeting abou1 Jan. 11th.
E) In mi., _d~ fer s1cd:: spll..
EJz:l I1Of"I8C. gnsJ(Is.): '92. 15r1!;"93, (Z;): 1M, Goes 81 _boot Jan. 18th. Apprm. divd pmnl
(F) RIW. and egs. prier to '90 not nlSIiIt8d for
(74;); '95, (37;); '96, (12), "98, 8; 'gg, (36;'~ d;!(es:tuI: Fri. of Feb., May, Aug., Nov.
FASB 97 adopIed II '90.
o zun, VIlle li'It PutIshi1lL m. AI rWb m8ftd. Fmlill IlIIIeIiIll is ....
rr- 5IUIta bIIIi!:IIl'd 10 be
is p"lIIridelll wlhlItt ~
II q tnl.
rur PUBI.JSH[R ts NOTR[SPor'IlSBUlORNC'! rRRO~ OROMSSIONSHERE". ~ p&dcaln is*i:::lJb ~s_.nmI-c---a.iIUmII_.
af ~ III)' w ~
'"*- _mil ,~m.". Fri*d- *din IIll1ltl _ 11li5liiii111!JftI1IIIiIg 1I..uIiIg.,
IIIi*d II ekdIDl'Ii: ~
wIi:r II podlICl

_lje .,.

"J

_,.

Stock's Pl1ce stability


PriQ Growth PlinishllCe
Eandnp PMictQlitJ'

No.- '

.,'!ft. __

I '.

75
25
75

: II:

II- ,

SAFITf
TECHNICAL

.eo

IfTA

......,
...,

"=:.'"

Gain
R.uam
Pri'"
40 (+160~1 27"
2.

~ '::'-

1,1',1

Jf.".JJA&

....,

P.~nt

29 .h.....

,.,

l~""

, .'
;....

ca

Assets

'111" ..

..'

"

"
.'

1111,,1'[

'

..

Receivables
Inventory (UFO)
O1he'
CURnt Assets
Acds Peyable
Debt Due
Othe'
Curmnl Liab.

..

52
2 .3
139.6

ANNUAL RATES

Pat

" .....

llYn.
8.0%

Sa'"

(po"')

''Cash FJawr('

8.5%

5.0%

~~~~

5.5%
25.0,,"

Book Value

65.8
146.1

50.1
32..
284

12-2
194.8
144.3
13.7
22.9
180.9

181.2

6.B
38.6
228.4

....

Q\IARTERLY SAlES ~ oil)'


Y.,
Jul.31
E_ 0cU1 Jan.31 Apr.
1991 168.9 136.8 13'.2 149.7

1199

210.

2102

""'"
1.:
1991

1199

210.
2102

CO!-

endar

1<13.0 120.7 1<13.


200.6 218.'
256.9
326.D 283.1 268.2
257.9 31Il
377.1
EARNlMGS PER SHARE

190.9
290.0
284.8
310
A
JulJ1

Oct.31

Jan.31

Apr.3D

.32
.21
.20
1.35
1.27

d.ll6

.23

.50

.05

.32

.63

d.lO
.83

.50

.33

.73

Jun.30

Sap.30

Dec.31

1997
1998
1199

.1l6
.1l6
.D75
.D75
.1115
.075
.D75
.08
.16
.08 ..
.085
.085
.085 .085
.09
210.
.18
.ID
.10
.10
(Aj F"",' _
""". July ,,"- (8) ......

M'Il"

~dud8s
IIOlRCIIfJtIg
galllS
(Osses): '87, (22); '93, (12); '95, 69. ExtUdes i1Yenby wrIlldown FY"9li1, 42;; ir#eII ZUll. VIlle I..ile ~~

TlifPU8USK:.RlSfIOTRE

II t:.., lit qpodUcelI.ltSC*l-.el

12

10

"",.

'I

"'1'

"."

1998

"-

35.n

,,_
Y.,

16.51

15.10

13.8

6.3
.16
.2%
598.0

8.9
.88
.12
3.3'
'1%
965.1 11.2.1

111"

5.8"

.n

22%
589.6

102%
24A
16.3
39.1%

16.
19.9
39.1%
3J%

2.a"

14.8
70J

11.8
37.9"

12%

'29

56.6

9.'"
30%

128.9
12.4%
15.5%
11A%

129.6

16%

47%

8.1"

91%
4.8"

27J
73.5
39.1"
6.4"
51.7

3'.3
201.7
32.0%
36 . %
33.6%

8%

'>5

"'4

10.7

BB.'

2002
19.10
510
01>
.'0
1.45
105

V.IL\l UllEPUB. ~C. 04-C11


Sllap.... h AD
7155
-elsh Row" per Ih D
.00
Elminlll
per Ih A. D
01'
DiY'dl OM:I'd per Ih CD
.41
C'I"I SpondOIg per III
1.00
Book YIIue JIll' Ih D
ZQ.38
15.70 C......
s
g
1l
AVII Ann' PI( 1\00
R-.un PIERdo

10.D

.15
'I"

Avg Ann' D1v'd Y'1Md


1015 Wls ($rIIiI) A

lID
11.0%

3U Dopoodd", I"'.)
,1.0 No1Proi1I~1

.,,,

40.""

lnl:Clnle TuRill

No1PtoltM.
740 WOIId.g Cop' (lmm)
UO .... T... DobIIInII)
33' Sh,.-Equityl~)

11.5"

RftIm

on 101J1 Cap'l

10""

R....

'" SIr. EO"",,

11.'32%"

RNinecl to Coni Eq
AI Dfy'dllo Nil Pro1

310
00.0
40.""
~1"
140
00

..""

1H%
14.'%

15"

Montana. IlIYests in 01 & gas exploration/production.


'01 deprec.
fiI1a: 7.1%. E5t'd plam age: 6 years. Has 520 1!ITIP1o)"8es. 1,800
shareholden.
OffICers & On. hold 18% r:I sIJ:d; Brown BIOS. Harnn.ln, 20%; ESOP, 10%; 2 funds, 16% (11101 pnny). Chnnn. and
CEO: Lam_ Norsworthy. PIBS.: M.P. CIifbI. Inc.: Del. Addnlss:
100 Crescent CoLn, CalM, TX 75201. TilL: 214-871-3555.

horn regarding a Texas lipe1lne. Although


Holly's attorneys argue its molion to dismiss the case in January. the judge has
still not rendered an opinion. It's quite
possible that Holly wI1l prevaU In this lawsult. If however. Holly were to lose the UtJ~
gaUon, we think it highly unlikely that It
would cost Holly anywhere near the $1 bUlion in treble damages that Longhorn is
seeking.

But

there's

a lot riding

on the

ultimate outcome of the legal issues. Undel"

certain

conditions.

the

LonghOlTl

PipelIne, once In operation. could overload


the El Paso region with refined products.
In the meantime. the litigation Is not affecUng HOC's

due to the fact that

188.6
162.1

1D.0%

12.1"

27.'

13.9

11. 3
10.9%
14.3%

for refined products.

Thts Is ~y

13.03
15.48
2.1

16.51

Although
share net will likely
be
reduced by more than Z5% in fiscal
z002. Holly should
deliver adequate
returns.

.32

1.63
7.11

73.78
6.51
4.77
.37
1.85

63."
260
.73
.3'
128
8.""

--.... .......... rf-

20001

3823
2.80
121

W
.99
.30
3.01
6>3

BUSINESS: Holly CorpcI'alion is rems


and marketer r:I pstro1lIL.m pmcIucls. Chief mark.ets for 60,000 baJr&I-per-day Navap
refil'llllY near Art., NY iIf8 in Arizona, Nllw Mexico, and Tua.
2000 sam mix: GlI5Dine, 59%; Die&91 fuel, 21""; Jet flKl~ ,,%;
Alpha" 5"; LPG and elhs", "%. Aliso opIAtes lransparlirtixl
pipell1es, tennilats,
and ll. 7,000 BID r&lnlll)' .t Gm. his,

demand

.. TOT. RETURIIll11O'1
Y'.
'Y'.
'Y'.

capital

expenditure

budget.

about 50% of Ho is output Is sold In Arl-

Holly shares are timely. but the best


zona, where margins have been solid. In eanlings news is now past. Stlll, we thlnk
addition to good business from end mar- that the company's low-c.ost structure can
kets, HOC has less interest expense to pay
see it
to gootfro6ts
in times of
told, our proJecOZS as it has reduced Its debt burden over the declining 0 prices.
past five years.
Earnings
should
also tlons call for these
shares
to deUver
Full
worthwhile 3- to 5-year total-return potenYou benefit from HOC's rost-sav:lngs efforts.
Pending
litigation
with Longhorn
tlal. But given the difficult nature of pre27 Partners is still a concern. In 1998,
dieting commodity prices. In addition to
Jl
this equity Is best suited
.33 Longhorn filed a lawsuit against Holly for the uncertainties,
investors.
.35 $1 billion. claiming that the lauer sup- for risk-tolerant
.99
1.21
.73
'.77

thro'tfh

ported

..,. """'"'l'FY99,

separate
4~ .....

llUgatlon

..........

due laID Mardi. eC) PUS spegal distribulions;


12185, S2.23/sh.; 7189, $10.00'stI. Next dild
mBefg about Man::t1 3n:I. GOBS ex abou1 Sep-

against

.....

Long-

D......

David Gallen

..,.....

Jan. 3, Apri 3, July 5. 0cL 6.


(D) AdjustBd lor stock splits.

...... , .~~

menm. FadLilt ~
is Dlf.-.s 1RIrII!lIUU5
~liIbe
rdiItIIe 8M! is ~
wIIIIIuI ~
G1:1' DId.
E ORNlrRRO.RSOROIoISSJONSHEREIII.~if.Ih::IJ"sdIII:JiI8'"5_._~"'''''lIw.
oparl
iII.,,..nN. ~
.........
II
III ~
II ~.,
pIi8l. ___ puIIbIin..a.,.odud.

1I11~

16

.n

Holly's share eantings in the October


quarter held up quite well despite
tougher operating conditions. AIthough oil prices have trended down conslderably over the last several months,
Holly's refinery profits and margins have
remained. quite finn, thanks largely to
vigilant cost controls. The com~'s
reveFul
nues have, however, softened. m estly in
Y., recent months. as the slowdown In the
589.6 U.S. economy is resulting
in reduced

598.0
965.9
11.21
1015
Fu'

1.36
1.13
.65
.10
QUARTERLY DIYI>EJ1)5 PAID C D
lIar.31

- -- - -- ..,
32
--

..

EsI'd'll-'01
H",
10'14-.
5.5"
9.5"
15.0%
6.5"
18.0%
7.(1"
12.0%
6.""
15.0%
15.5"

fiscal

.".'

,.

".,

123.5
54 .

13.8
154.4
105U

..
50

,I

.. .

,.,

4.3

3.B
63.4
55.6

7.1

20

1.8"

:'LL)

Target Price Ran~


2004 200.
2006

25.1

I.'

,..

'"

9.6
4.B

1990 1991
1992 1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
16.59 19.64 30.59 3820
33.46
3715 '0.97
43.70
1.8.
1.13
.78
1.89
1.91
1.71
23'
201
US
.71
.17
121
1.16
.76
1.11
.80
.70
.79
20
2.
.13
.18
.20
.21
.06
.01
28
.1'
J4
327
1.35
1.22
1.38
.92
1.11
1.84
.12
.1'
129
1.19
3.92
3.89
282
6.31
1.30
'.85
'.83
,. 7
.6.01
16.5
16.5
16."
15." 15."
9.4
,.7
NMF
11.1
11.4
16.6
102
16.
".0
.70
1.21
NMF
.30
.66
.75
1.11
.64
.95
.35
1.5%
1.8% 1.7% 1.1%
12%
2.3%
.3%
1.6% 1.8% 20%
489>
CAPrTAL STRUCTURE as of 1131111
506.7 630.6 552.3
61U
676J
nlJ
. 6%
10.1"
6.5'
1.6"
9.1"
1.1"
8
.
"
Due In 5 Yrs $42.9 mill
Total Debt $42.9 mil
7.0
10.1
11.3
10.9
15.8
19>
202
LT Internl $2.5 mil.
LT Debl $304.3 mi.
11.7
28
19.9
20.7
12.
192
13.1
(32% of Cap'!)
(Total ifI1BnI5t COV8I8ge: 5.3x)
..
38J%
'0.1'1 .a.a" 38 . '
39.8% 40.0"
2.%
.5%
LUSH, UnCllp1ta1lDd None
3.1'1
3.8\
2.8"
2""
18.6
122
182
17.7
66.6
.52
'.0
Pension UabirltJ Non.
80.2
66.1
74.4
68.8
54.6
86J
75.8
19.8
19.5
46.5
64.8
80.0
105.1
".1
Ph:! Stock None
18,6%
13.2%
6.6%
20.1%
11.7% 11.9%
9.5%
Common Stock 15,480.627 shares (68% of Cap')
as tJf8l4ID1
39 . %
9 . % 42.9%
32.0% 15.5% 20.0% 12. %
IIARKET CAP: $750 million (Sm.1I C.p)
26.1%
NMF 37.6% 27.510 11.410 16.4%
8.4%
CURRENT POSrrtoN
.999
30DD 7/31101
3'%
NoF
11%
14%
27%
18%
32%
1985
1986
16.96 1120
1.08
127

7.0

50

14
9407 10393
1989
1987
1988
17.13
13.38 13.11
1.78
2.40
.48
2.01
.12
1.'18
..
.. .16
.36
20
.15
.02
279
1.38
.81
.8
.8
",.u
6.'
. 9
23'
.30
..
.. 12%

IlZ18

6.B
B.l

18.7

14A
11.6

'.~.

"- ~..:/ .. ..

0 0

0OO81!15011

1:::'1

12.7

REL\TNE

_:It!

14.9
10.8

n.i:ftos I1II:eniorr

""

000985011
Institutional Decisions
1Q,1t1
1m.,
28

17..3
11.1

14.3
10.6

16.7
11.9

24

'"''

1 0 0 0 000

15.3

lID1

PROJECTIONS

(+60%
Insider Decisions

14.~
9.9

2-1or-' ~
AM'lTo1aI

t':

15.4
11.3

LEGENDS
5.5.c.!ihf"-p!lf1
..
RtillivePIU 5nnp
2-lor-l ~
l/U

(UllI ..IQ"'et)

ZQ~

High:
Low:

2 ,""',"""
3 """._
5 lllRletll21211J1

TJI[UNESS

IFPRICE 15.501~m 4 8 eoog: 3l) PfRAOO. 0 261r'YlD 2.6%


CENT

HOLLY CORP. ASE.HOC

December

Stock's Price Stl.blWtJ


Pra Grvwth P.rsEltence
Earnings P~ctablltty
I

'",

21. 2001
50
10
35

:11:

II'.

IHOP CORP. NYSEIHP


2
3
3

lWEUIIESS

SAFITt
TECHNICAL

Law,
LEGENDS

_"lID'"

........

....

.5

(~~511

3D

~~

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

55

27

37
16410

1987

Ueblity

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

.1989

1988

..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..

Debt Due

""""

1990

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..

(57% of cap'~

...

..
...
..

''Cash FJaw"
Eemi'1gs

Dividends

Boot Value

,.

2G01
2002

....,
CoI-

1991
1191

2000
2001
200l
CoIend,r

1997
1991
1.

8.9
40.3
.8
3.7

........,

lDJ
11.8

--.1L!

39.9

........

Est'd ... OO

"Revenues
....
1>0< .. 1 llYr:s... 'Yn.
13.5%

2000

'130/0'

2000

Put

Put

ANNUAL RATES

14.0"
15.0%

..

18.o%-

9.5"
13.~

13.OK
Nil

13.~

QlIlRT8LI RMIIUES~oIIJ
Full
"ar.31 Jun. 3O"!:i:.'" sa DIe. 31 y68.3 256;
55.9
65.6 66.'
m;
61.3
61.5 12.0 7~'
18.4
70.3 78.6 85.9 303
70.1
B~B 81.1 ".11 3/1
nil 11.11 BU f.2 3011
EAlUllNGS PER SIIA1lE"
Full
lIIar.31 Jun. 30 ~; 30 Dec. 31 'u,
14
.32
.36
.39
1.31
.44
.33
.39
.42
1.58
.35
.41
.48
17.
.50
.37
. 9
.53
.M 1.13
.44
.53
.11 '15
.10
QUAIlTBlLI OMlEIIIS PAIl
Full
".r.31 Jun.30 Sen 30 Dec.31

'ou

rn"ll 1111_111,

,1'1.

.......

eo
eo

- -- - --

50
40

30
25
2D

'"

"

111'1

15

.....
... ""
""'"
".

10

5.17
.56
.37

5.56

.BD
2.74
.5

1.32
32.
1.

1.65
3.97

T70

fll

'IT
1.01
..

18.4
1.09

11.8

..

1.10

..

91.8
14."
.9

.Tl

.9

..

6.63
1.00
.66

20~001

..

..

6.94
1.20
.80

10.04
1.42
.9ll

'.76

123
.85

..

..

..

W
5.78

3.02
6.13

18.15

1I9r

4.92

15][
1.00

1.11

..

..

"

119.0

,.,

..

..

..

..

3.63
9.51
JO
14.

3.59
11.26
.1

.Tl

.16

..

'.04

111

..

.,

..

3.01

"lIT

..

12.6

1~96
1.19
Dl

..

ill
.BD

164J f!ll.1
17.4% 17.2% 20.'~ 342~ 34.8'
6.0
5.1
6.'
'J
122
15.1
162
1'.6
40.7' 40.8% 42.4" 39>~ 39>~ 39.5%
5.8%
8.8% 10.2% 12.1'
9.B~ 9.a%
3.6
3J
.0
d12
62
39.4
66.3
6111 79.3
93.5 139.4
129.4
48.1
58.0
112
18.3 108.3
9.2%
9.8% 10.8% 11.0% 101%
g,1"
10.9% 15.1'
11.1% 11.1% 14.9'
14.4%
10.9% 15.1," 11.1% 11.1% 14.9'
14.4%
99.'

11.10
1-'9
1.0'

..

..

..

1.74

We have fine-tuned our earnings presentation for mop. The company recently reported thlrd.-quarter share net of
$0.53. three cents shy or our estimate. TIle
weakening economy. further aggravated
by the tragic events
of September
11th, resulted in slower tJJp-line growth than prevlously anUdpated. Indeed. comparable5tDre sales declined
by 0.4% during the period. A5 such. we have trimmed our sales
estimates
for this year
and 2002 by 3%
and 4%, respecUvely. to reflect our expeetation that the operating envirorunent
will remain challenging over the near
term. All told. we have reduced our sharenet estimate
for 2001, from $1.96, to $1.93,
which Is pegged towanls the lower end or
management's targeted range of $1.90
$2.02.
For 2002,
we have also pared our
earnings estimate
by $0.03 .
IHOP's bottOID line should receive a
boost from a lower tax rate ~lng forward. Thanks to management s ongoing
tax-planning efforts. the effectlve tax rate
to 37.5%

In the

1Io/d~

;;;0.;

..

III be
is!llR::lly'"

_.

niItIIe II1II is J"I'iIed ...."


~I

gr......

WIl, 11m!

"

===,-

D_-::':I'
.......

..;:';';;'i;i~i

"'"

..

7.5

uoa
5
110
HI
l.5Q

21511

...

fU

...
HI

311"
21.0

fl.

31.'"
fU"
.. 0
100

41.
UOll
f4.0ll
f<0ll
HR

ltwoughoul the day and 8\'8MJg, and many opeBta 24 I1oI.n a day.
2DODdepreciation rate: 5.5%. HIs Ilboul 4,075 .-nplo)'8eS. 2,226
shill8holdlrs.. onJdi". own 11.2% at amnon iliad;; FUR Cap .
10.1% (4.(11Proxy). Ctmnnan. CEO, and finis.: Ridl:iInI K. Herzer.
Incmparall!lCl:DE. Addr8s&: 450 Brilnd BhI'd. GIerJd.*, CA 91203TeIepII3ne: 818-240-8055. InIemet: www.ihop.am

The

company recentJy completed its


for a new chief operating offlcer
that
began
in AUPAst- Julla
Stewart, fonnerly president 0 Aprlebee's.

search

was

recently

appointed

COO

IHOP.

What's more. the company announced that


Ms. Stewart. is slated. to succeed Richard
Herzer
as CEO by m1d2oo2,
as the 1008time

Is preparing

CEO

for retIrement.

Mr.

Herzer plans to stay on as chairman of the


board.
Further
developlDel'lt
of the IHOP
concept ought to fuel growth out to
the middle of the decade. Meanwhlle.
finding capable franchIsees is at the heart.
of the expansion plans. as about 90% of
the company's units are franchised. Management's strategy tends to favor franchlsees who are either fonner employees
or existing owners of an mop restaurant,
as such individuals are already famlllar
with the mop business.
This equity is ranked to outperf'onn
the broader market ave~
over the
cmning six. to 12 months.
nger tenn.
however, DiP shares offer lackluster appredation potential at the current price.
Carrie GaJeotaflore
December 14, 2001

-:::

"..

lH
1".
30.'
70.7
127.
5".
GVAl.UEUNEPUB~ lit.
R ...... UI. per sh
"Cish Flow"' per Ih
Elrnklgs per III A
DlY'd. Dtd'd per III
CIfI':;pondin" p.nl,
Book Yalul ... sh
C....'VM"'P ......
R*tM PIERno
Avg Ann' DiY'd YWd

JZO
3M
30.81
31.1% 3to"
13.6
f>ll ,<0
.. 0 NItProIt
35.3
411..
iI
37.5% 31.'" Inc:onI To RaIl
3U~
11.~ f''''
fUll
25.0 Worm" Cop'1 (lnl'
1.1
fU
m
". LongTorn DobI (InI)
206.1
310
260.0
JOO
9.9" 10.0% to.5% R.... '" T"".::
13.6%
14.0% Rwmon Shr. E
13.6% 11'"
14.0" Rmined to eCll'll Eq
.. HI
HR All DlY'dl to NIt PrvI

~~
~

.10

.,32

"";;TB"' .......,"'....."'.......

CI 2l1l1. YIW liIe


.
R. AI'
~.
hl:1lllllllllerilll
i5 CIlUIr'B fnlIII .uteS
THE PUBUSl-R IS ~
"rci'R Nl't ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HERW. TIIK ~
rlt:
lie
.lI'5GtI.lanIl
.....,
.,
Ii&cIfIlEallllel ...
..olll

f'"
10.511

10.1
.66

..

fUll
'0.70

..

..

4.97
12.99

13.2

t70
1.13
HI

2002
17.D5
100
U5
HI

170

H'

..

..

..

we.

basis points,

U1
1.56

"

BUSINESS: II'I)P Corp. dBveJops. opln1Bl, and hncl'lises 968


Illlen1atlJn,' House of PallCilluls fsrnily restaurants in 41 &ta...
Canada, and Japan (abotll: 90% an hnchiMld). IHOP IWI5iMntis
are
known for IIeir m:xs.ately prEed ViIrilIIy of panc:ate!ll,
amelllll:es, and ather br&atfaslllpeciillillS. Aho off broad Milly
at 1IInch, dill,.,. and snadl: iIams. The reslILnrrts 'r8 open

100

15.15

13.58

215.5
2062 2132
35.9'4 28.5' 30.91
1011 I1J
12.3
16.1
20.
3~1
39.0% 39.0' 38.5%.
'.111 102" 11.8'
d2.5
1.1
1562 180.1
208.0
156.2 187.9
126>
9.0~ 9>~
9.6"
13.4% 13.9% 141~
13.4% 13.9% 141%

$0.02 .

(", F",,',....
31st.
DiIut8cIearnings.So""",_
NBIt earnings..Al'part
dua lata Janu-r.

..,

Target Price R8nv2005 2006


20"
125
100

-.

"

third quarter. The adjustment bolstered


third-quarter
share
earnlngs by about

BEING PAIl

e,"

13.6

,.,

~
1~1~1~1~1~1~1~1~1~

declined

.0 CASHDMDENOS

Nil

292
18.9

3".

3.'

..

..

42
7.2
39.6
35.3
12
.7
72
3.8
47.9 5iJ
20.6
18.0
10.8
10.8
18.6
~
50.0
"2

Current Liilb.

22."

26.0
14.9

"" TOt RT\JRIII "101

MARKET CAP: S600 million (Small Cap)

CummtAsseis
N.d5 PlI)'Bble

9."

23.8
14.8

Perc-nt '.0
.hare_ I.'

CommOft Stock 20,691,736 shs .

Il00LI
ca", .......
ReceIVables
~ry(FIFO)

18.7
11.8

F.... P 51

::;Iii II"

None

CURRENT POSrrlON

1-4.9

ftlfaIn na'BDn

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE .. of 113M1


Totil Debt $233.7 mil. Due In 5 YIS $34.0 m"
LT Irtt.rnt $23.0 mill.
IT Dlbt S221.9 mil.
Ind. $171.9 niD. capilalll!lllse obligations.
(LT irtES1 earned: 3.6x; kJtallrtlftSl coverage:
3.")
(43" 01Cap')
Luses,
Uncapitalized:
Annuall1!ntals $35.7 nil

11911

".3

15.3
10.3

2QJ.1

50

'4909

1986

..

......

92

'"

lQJ.,

54

..

C.~

5.9

0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 2 0

15216

11.9

.IfIllA."JAS

000
000
000

2.

Pension

15.6

Institutional Decisions

1985

10.8

.. "

+5%
Insider Declaians

.s.....
....
....:~~.

7.'
'.9

Rl!8IIre f'ra, 5nngll


2-101'!ipII
SI9!I

ZOO4-Gt PROJECTIONS
Ann, Tolal
Pri ..

. 9111-CI'5h

. __

.-

.15 (1.00_ YI*d)

lIED.

HighT

NN9f14l1t
N~9IlUll

28.70I~ro14.H::~ntl)~~0.751~

I:ECEtII
PRICE

IIIrI'IIllies d
dIIl, .....
1I5e.~
.-.ice.

Stock's rica Stablllly


Price Grawth tt.n.iatance
earnIngs PrMldablity

75
55
100

pan

DdIct

I '.

II:

I I'

!FPRICE 11.191~m 8 5(T"'I: U) ~J%O.49 ~ 3.9%


COO

KAMAN CORP. NDQKAMNA

High:
Low:

4 l..aMl:ed&'Jl~l
3 NNJlZl!D
4....,"am

TIiIEUJlESS
SAfETY
TECHNICAL

PriCi

:"l

13.4
10.0

7.9

RBbIrn

Gain

9.4

..

1Q2.'

49

40
14004

,,.

.91
2."'

P.rcellt

38 shsrH
41

"
1988

2.1'

m.

PM Stock none

(93% of capij

Common Stocll ZZ,421,000 sits.

IIIA.RKT CAP: S25C1mllDon (Small Cap)


CURRENT POSrrlON

'119

ca:'~

782
'56.2

Receivables
Inventory (FIFO)
O!he'
CUm!lnt Assets
Acds Payable
Cunni.

....

t!lll
'919

2DlIl
2DlI2

Uab.

1198
1919

2001
2DlI1

10.0%

--

--

oI.l

239.1
249.8
265.0
244.7

249.7
142.6
151.8
119.4

269.8
145.1

247.4
246.7
261.0
194.6

ur

153.5
226.J

EARHlXGS PERSHARE ...


Jun.30 SlID.30 Dec.31

.31
.19
.31
.28
.34
.36
.39
.40
.38
.36
.37
.30
032
.33
QUARTERLY DM>EtI)S PAl)
.30

1997
1198
t919

.11
.11
.11

.11

20lIt

.11
.11

.11
.11

.32
.39
.42

.21
.35

Jun.30 SeD.30 Dtc:.31

.11
.11

.11
.11
.11
.11
.11

,.,
F.'
,.,

6.5"

Dec.31

IIlr.31

~~"7

......

Sed'

CoIendar

97.8
146.4

3.'"

QIIARTERlY RE\BAIES {I

"ar.31

200.4
'92.8
30.'
453.0

3.5%

-,.5"

Kar.31 Jlln.30

no

20.8

Past Est'd '91-'00


51...
1.0%
-1.0"
3.5"
4.5"
1.5%
3.5"

Pat
llYn.

"'1

Ca.

eMU

3.7
111.5
173.3

9I3lMI1

44.4
4.2

58.1

4.5

115.1
168.4

ReWlnlJ8l
''Cash Flaw"
Eamngs
Dividends
Book Value

Ca.
.......

212.4
196.1
25.3
482.0

199.7
28.0
460.1

ANNUAl RATES

d ........

... 2

.11
.11
.11
.11
11

...

1006.0
934.2
1032.3
.1>

.-

90S

F.'

1.23
1.31
1.57
I....
1.30

,FilII

.44
.44

.u
.U

Cl Z01I, YaJe I..fte ~~


TH( P\BJSK:R
IS NJT R
lit
1t5IIIL __

..,

"

10.9

20 ..

200.

1"f..1'1.

IT

"

'2.63
1.67
93
.44
.47
11.01

43.26
1.70
.95
.44
.58

10'"

18.10
10>
.61

"'"

'.4
.60

4.51

5."

778.5
.2'
13.
17.0
40."
2X
199.1
101.'
101.1

782.9

43.80
1. 1
.95
.44
1.13
9.46
10.09

~.08
1.55
93
.44
1.19
'.07
10.17

......

"'"
,~......

........

11.'

.66
4.21-

.7.

199_1~~~w~iL1

~.'1 50."
1.71
1.08
.44
.43
9.13

1."
.66
.44
. 1
'.51

10.13

,OJ

4.61

13.'
.90
3n

4.01

8192

896.4

948.1

5....

6.1"

111.6
100.9
109.'

6.B%
8.4%

6.7%

1.1"

8.1'

8.4\

9.1"

7-"

9."
'.9,
61'

9."

U,

-4.4%

."

4.5%

4.51

47'

4'"

51'

13.1
16.9

~"

'46.1
37.-4
203.8

41.~
1.73
1.23
.44
.8'
13.07

20.60

"."
14.0

.91

'"

.73
1.6'

1043.4 1006.0
.21\
5.6'
11.1
12.7
1~4
12.1
19.
13.
30.0
13.1
42.0% 4m 40.4'
40."
3.",
12'1
2.1'
198.6 236> 215.8
281.5
66.4
63.9
19.9
18.1
214.3 128.'
190.0 309.5

36.61

13.4
11.4
40.1%

5.711

50.64
1.53
.97
.44
.66
1125

15.'

.66

792.5
5.6'
"13.5
1. 1
44.1%
2."
149.'
38.0
128.3

6.1"

."......

'.0
-16.8
42.2

Is

'"

.."

'"

42.56
1.93
1.31
.44
.47
13.66
".13
9.7

46.40
2.16
1.57
.44
.50
14.92

za'

7.'
.50
3."
3.7"
984.1 1031.3
6.5"

."

32.7
38.1"
3.3%

191.7
19.'
316.4

9.1%

10."

8.'"

9.7'

9.8%
10.3%

6.81

4.3'

6.4%

1.1'

5"

53'

-1D.6

26.'
".1

2002 ClVALUELJlEPUB IIC.


39.40
4420 RIVIIlUII pIf sh
2.110
UO "Cish ~plflh
1.40
Ull E-ning. P. Ih A

...
.U

1105
1145

.U

115

11.6

36.9
36.0'
3.6'
308.7
2"-9

11.1
33.0

25.'"

332.0

3.7%

33.

11.
3ID

9.'"

R_PIERda

12.'
31.,,,

O__

(ln~1

31.0 Nl\PIollllldl
Irlcorl1t 1ubit

,1.4"

NIlProlili.

15Il W_. Cop'IIInlill)


11.
2ID Sh,:Ea,,",'lniI)

Lon.T""
_I~I

LOll

"'15
1<'
1.10
.U

.ID
20. ..
11..
110
.ID

A"SI Ann' [h'd Y"1IkI

JD5 Rl'Mluu (kII)


7.'" _i1",,"

..'"
..... I.'" "'"
1'"
""

10.6'"
11.1%

OIY'ds Dld"d pII' Ih

.>II c",'1 SfIonlin. por III


IU. 800II YII ... PI' III
2.," (;cnmllll 5hl outst g"
Ayg Ann' Pit: blio

-:::--

'" ..'"

12.0

8.3%

3"

... - ,
4

'10 TOt. R1\JRIIIIIfD'I

'.'

,~.
,~.

10.44

11.'

24
20
10

32

"
'2

..

.- .,

".

..

2006

.'

Rwm on TotII Cap'l


R_
... SI1<. Eo~'"
Rltalntd III Con Eq

U"
'07'

,..
.'"
1'"
7""

.1.0

15.0
4ID
15"
9.'"
15%

3211 All Div'd5 10 NIt ProI


32'
19'
tan and di*ibules ~er l1'lJsicll inm..ments. 2000 dfJpreciati)n
rate: 6.8%. Has about 3,825 emplDyees and 6,525 sharehDklers.

""

BUSINESS: Kaman CorporatDn DptnIes in tIwee busiless 189mellls. A&rospiIc:a (59% fA 2000 operatiJg prof.) ITliInufacbns and
I'Bb1:Jf"Its IIellcopbn and cnmponenl parts, ilcludilg subasserrtllies,
b miliary and corrIIIlIfCiIJ n&tets. The lftduAial DisIrbution sagment (31%) dinibutes replK8ll8I'l1 paris b indusD1lTllldlil'lllY.
The Musk: Oilitrbution segment (10%) manufacbns o....tiDl'l gui-

0If. and Oil'. conftlI 3% fA Ciass A otKmIJI'l, 52% of Class 8 ammoo (3101 Proxy). Ch21lmiln, CEO, Bnd Pr8sD!n1: Paul R Kuhn.
lnc.: Connectiarl.. Addr8ss: 1332 Blue HIls AvanlKl, Bmnfm:l, CT
06002. Tel: 860-243-6301. Internet: W'ft'.kamln.com.

Kaman', earnings held up better than


many of its peers in 1:be first three
quarters of ZOO1 ... The company had
signed an agreement in 1997 to deliver ] 6
SH-2G Seasprite heUcopters to the governments of Australia and New Zealand. This
contaCt., however. hit a snag a couple of
months ago. In order to resolve the problems. Kaman made adjustments to the
deal that reduced tax. considerations re
lated to the project. And as a result the
company has benefited from a si~cantly
lower tax rate during the
t nine
months of this year relative to ZOOO.1llis
development partially offset weakness in
segment,
the
Industrial
Distribution
reflecting lower industrial spending by
U.S. companies.
... however. we have COIlcenJS about
upcoming quarters.
In fact. we have
trimmed
our
fourth-quarter
shareearnings estimate by nearly 30%. owing to
heightened economic uncertainty following
the tragic events of September 11tho We
believe that earnings at the aerospace
division may decline as Boeing. its biggest
customer. will likely curtail commercial
aircraft production in 2002 and 2003. in

response to antldpated reductions in consumer air travel. In addition, the company's music distribution segment. which
tradiUonally ~ts
its strongest sales in
the second h
of the year, ought to be affected by lower consumer confidence related to the slUggish economy. A portion of
these profit shortfalls, however, may be
counterbalanced
by Increased
mIlltary
spending. Nonetheless. we believe tmfavorable share-net comparisons may plague
the company In 2002.
'Ibis issue holds little invesbnent appeal at this time. Kaman's stock price
has fallen by more than a third since our
August report, owing prtmarUy to reduced
near-term earnings prospects. AddJUonally. we have lowered the Timeliness rank.lng of these shares by one notch, to 4 (Below Average). Furthermore, at the current
quotation, these shares have only average
3- to 5-year capltal-appred.aUon potential.
That said, once the economy recovers and
consumer travel likely returns to previOUS
levels. Kaman's fundamentals and earning
prospects, should markedly improve. This
recovery. however, may take some time .
Daniel L. Marks
November 2. 200/

-Ilings ......

"'''''l'.

_ .. -

...,"'" illms:
.... '''''''
d .. meuIIng
1alo
s nete .......
nDllr1lCllRlg
'93, d$2.58; (8) Hex! diYiIend
about Decanber
'94. 11$1.78;V1, $1.87; '!J9, d$O.26. SI.IIl rI '9!l 10th. Goes ex about Dea!rrber 24th. Appox.
qtrs.dil'll!nfrDrnFYkDldUBtJltlUndi1g.Next
diYilend payment da1es.: 15th r:I Jan., Api,

ci.

" ,'~

...

."

'.0

CAPITAL STRUCTURE u of 1IJIW1


Due In 5 Yrw S1Z.0ml!.
Total Debt m.4
LT Interest $1.6 mill
LTDebt$23.2ml.
Ind. $232 nib
6% sub. debs. (12) each cv. iItl
corrmon at $23.36 pII'" sharB.
(7" ofCop'Q
Leases, Uncapltallz"
Annualrentab $14.71Tl11.
P.ltSlon Uability Non8

De .. """
0' "

Target Pric. Ringe

'9.5

'"

'.0

1989
1990
~.34
44.02
43.03
1.18
UO
2.05
.~ 1.08
1.41
.44
.44
.41
.68
.53
1.09
10.01 10.03 10.61
,.20
10.20
7.
1,.,
25.9
7.1
1.96
.53
.90
2.7,
5n
3.5'

""

.40
6.99
1.1

..

"

,1 '''1

... . .... ,.

I~"

1987
33.66 40.26
,.94
1.41
1.16
1J7
.36
.55
.90
8.97
7.66
17
7."
1.s.1
1<.
.66
.69
2."'

.16

17.8

16.1
10.1

- -- - --

1'11.,.
....'

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
"... 020110110
020
0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional Decisions

1985
32.38
1.36
1.11

13.0

40

1,11.11

25"
13"

DJFII"IIJJA

"'52
1986

1ta

20.4

20.4
12.0

13.011

~~~~*-J'~ni:Ir:I

(1125~t
....5%

25
18

.....t.
....::~"'..."

11.1

12.1

1D.8

ZOO4-OO PROJECTIONS
Ann, TatII

Insider Decisions

9.'
7.4

LEGENDS
1.0 I CaSl F.... P VI
.. , ReIIM Pm Shn1Il

BETA .aD (1.ll1l.~

WI'!:

9.'

f~~.

1I5fll'ftd.
is IIUIIinaI '"'"'
ORNfr [RRORS OR CMSSIONS H(~.1lB

.~irolllJ'priIIId.~CI""""CllI5IlI.'-".

SlIUte5 ~

'.......
nalilblll.

0, .......

(C) In mlim,

pia"

adjusted b stx:lI; div'd.

10 lie nIiItR IIIIl i5 F""'iIIlld .....

i51h:tJ _~

.... """""'"

_. _~
fI'i*Il.eIIII::kri:

WIInIIIie d
irfInIeI ... ~

smUll

UItI.
pari

CClrIIpa,;: FIn.nciaI ar.ngth


SiDck's rim S'tIbllIJ
Price Growth "rsistMcl
EarnIngs PlWktabtl1y

..
85
30
90

KIMBALL INT'L IB' NDQ.KBALB


4 _~., .. ,
3 Nt'll/2109D

TIIEUNESS
SAflY

M-.)

.... .....
.."

2_

PROJECllONS
Ann1TGtaI

'"" (i:-I

30
19
+55%
luki.r O"lon.

'8"

"='"_"""/fs
"'1

..

II'"

....

"'.. ",.. IQ,"


....
:::. ....1. " ......

.-

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 1 3
"... 00020
'00000010
Institutional Decisions
29

14.1
10.5

P.l'Cllnt
h.....

32
20

5.0

17.3
12.6

' .3
10.7

14.4
11.9

21A

"

..

...

..

1"'1

'

..

' .,

.. ...

23.'

17.5

'2.1

fen.On

111' I
I,

NDJFII"IIJJ

32

11.~
8.6

Low:
7.'
LEGENDS
811.ClshF ..... p$ll
. ... R~
Pm S-1I1g11
lob-1 'lpII 12m

TECHNICAL 3e-I'l'01
BETA .ItI (llIO-

12.1

High:

ECENT
12451:RAll) 192C
....oIlA14.0) ~~1.161~ 5.1%

WI'!:
IrPRICE

..

..

..

.~" ""

,,'"

,...

"-o-~I
Sa'"
"ClISh FJow""
Eamllgs
Divdends
BookVlIlue

8.0%
"""
5.0%

3.5%
8.0%
tl.O%

200.8

223.

Past
5""

7.5%
6.0%
3.5%
7.5%
8.0%

"8.""
......

Est'd "11-'01

F1scoI

7.5"
85"
2.5"
4.0"

,.,

QUARIBILTSAllS (I"')
Y., Sep.30
Dec.31 M.,.31 Jun.30 FIIco1
Yg,

-.E....

1998
1191

245.9 264.5 265.0 256.9 1032.3


264.6 280.1 288.1 274.2 1107.0
27...
294.3 309.5 318.7 1200.9
2001 320.81' 332.11' 319.81' 287.8 12612
275
2002
US
no 325 1105
EARNINGSPERSHAREA.
Y., Sep.30 Dee.31 Mar.31 JunJO Fiscal
E...
Y.,
1998
.31
.37
.31
1.32
.33
1919
.31
.36
1.38
.34
.37
1.21
.29
.30
.29
.33
2001
.28
.32
.18
.15
.93
2002
.75
.10
.15
.25
.25
QIlAR_T oNllElllS PAIl C
c..
FilII
a"" M.rJ1 Jun.30 S.p.30 Dec:.31 yg,
1197
.13
.55
.13
.145
.145
1998
.62
.15
.f6
.16
.16
1199
.601
.16
.16
.16
.16
.16
.16
.16
.16
.601
2011
.16
.16
.16

..,

'oca'", .........

Comparisons at Kimball's core fund.ture and cabinets unit will likely remain unfavorable in the near tenn ...
Given the uncertain economicoutlook, nelther consumers nor corporations seem partlcularly inclined to invest in new furnlshings. Meanwhile. slower industty sales
will probably crtmp demand far KImball's
contract cabinet-manufacturing services.
.. and the electronic contract assem.blies segment may not fare much better. Continued softness in the automotive
and computer markets, reflecting the tepid
economy, appears to be more than offsetling modestly ftnner demand In the Industrial and telecommunicatlon sectors.
For Kimball. though. the difficulties
emerged even before its markets began eroding.
Start-up costs and inem
dendes associated with earlier expansion
projects. coupled with some operational
problems and high energy costs, have
pressured margins for some time now. Results at the fwnltw-e components business
continue to disappoint. while a factory
prodUcing projection-television cabinets in
Mexico has urxierperformed since its purchase about two years ago. Kimball has

_."""'ll~.....

(AI
"'"Oct.
(CI-d
...... 20. DiY'dl paid on or
av..
shares thrnugh '97,3OIh.
dlkli!(~- thaNftll'...
S.
GOlilS 8X
about Dec.
EJcUdlIs onHine il8na: '92. 3t!; '94, 3f!; "96, _the 15th or Jan., Ap'"., JuL, Od. (DllnmidS; '97, 2; '99, 9. Ne:d IlIfnilgs .. port dUB lion&, IIdj. for spll IE) ClIiiIIssB 'JI:es one
~ 211l1.Yibr I..N ~
AI
fKlull rn-.;II b Gl:CIined rr- _
bdirwd to be
THEPUllUSI-f.RISJ)TR
IUJ lie IIp'alb:BL -*L'"

af.

ITg~'

art ~

50
40
32
24
20

"

~20oo
27.45
2.37
1.38
.601
1.90
11.51
<O.J3

12.7

.n

3.7%
1107.0
102'
39.7
55.7
36>%
5.0%
217.7
1.7
464.3
12.1)%
12.0%
6.4%
46%

......
...

....
.....
.22.,
~..

" Tot RTURII .,

3~.
5~.

10.6

263

551
IIC.

16..3

,U.

cYALUELlEPUB
51111 per Ih A
'CISh __ II" '"
Eanini1perlh
All
Diy'ds Dlcl'c1per III C
~I Spondn.porob
Soak VIIue per M
COIIIIIOft $hs ovtsfi U
A'll An" PIE0'"
R*tivs PIEAda
AwgAnn' DiY'c1
YWcI
A
"10 ~IISmm)
7.5%
1... 1
4 0 __

2001
2002
33.20
2.21
21.
.93
.75
.601
.N
113
U.
11.65 11.10
".Z3 3/."
13.
16.3
.86
.91
.1%
3'%
30.61
2.35
11'
.04
1.66
11...

>1."

1200.
91%

12612
7.6%
m 47.7
36.3
".6
M>% 33.6'
. 0%
2.9%
190.1 180.
2.6
3.3
"2 .
"'1.5
8.11
10.3'
10.3%
81%
.'%
2.6%
53%
69%

.... ProIt IlniII


b:Gm1 Ta RItI
13% Not PIoII kgiII
Copll"'lD)
155
15 LontlT.... DoIIt IlnOI

aD

,.""
m

w_.

Sh'.-_I","'

l.5lI Rnrm _ ToIII Clip'


Rftirn _ Shr. ElIIIit
f."" R.-..cIID COllI Eq
AllDiY'c1s1oNatProf

l'"

""

4"'5
13>
1.75

.72

U.

...

14.15
'15

.to
1""
1475

".""
57.'

u..

'l""

4.'"
13>

51.
fU%

12'"
7.'"
41%

lXImIuni:ations,
delensa, musnl
cor*oIa, end medal KldlJ$.
trie5 (31%). Foreign opinlions: 11% flU1 sales. Employs 10,032..
orfI . nd din.. CM'n 34.3% fI CBs! A 8nd 9.5% of Class 8 met
(9101 Proxy). CtLllmln 1100ceO: Dooglal HIlbig. V"E&-ChI.ImiIIR:
Thomas Habig. Pras.: JamBS Thyen. Inc.: IN. Adli".: 1600 Royal St,
Jasper, IN 47549. Phone: (812) 482-1lK1O.Web: www.tinbalmn.

implemented a series of remecllal measures, though the benefits of these efforts


may not become fully apparent until sales
pick up again. On a positive note, these 15sues encouraged management to conduct
an internal review to improve execution
across all business units. That allowed the
company to enter the current slowdown
better prepared and. with a leaner cost
structure than many of its competltocs.
Kimball Is taking further action to
buoy resulta.. CUJTentinitiatives include
the closing
a number of fadlllles, the
elimination of redundant stalf, and the
continued Implementation of programs to
Improve raw material procurement. Annual cost savings will likely aggregate between $35 million and $40 mllliml. Notably, most of the one-time charges for this
restructuring have alrea~ been incurred.
Untimely Kimball sto
offers decent
3- to 5-year total-return
potentiaJ. The
company's efforts to trim costs and expand
its presence position it well for gains once
demand recovers (pemaps beginning late
fiscal 2(02), but It may take a quarter or
two of growth to rekindle investor Interest.
Lars L. BainbrIdge
October 12, 2001

or

v....... """"_.~~

BoalfISOIidatllll,
...
hIEd mall!)' to
merger, or disIOIuIm. Enllll8d t12 per,..-d
....dmmlthan
cas A. (F) RestaIld b iIOXIllnting changll.
..........
" plIIiIeII ......
~
bid.

SlllE ORlK'flRRORSOROMlSSlClNSHrRuf.Thi5~if,5lD:Iyb~-'_C=N.dlLirIlll1lll&ne.
III~
i1111J pi8!JII.....
__ ..
a .. b ....

2006

12
10

1~.

."

,....

- III"L

..

m.

""'"'

2005

- -- - -- -- - --

2.0

.""

CummlUab.

2000

..

"II

Target Price Range

16.1
11.8

.... . .

... .,.

ANNUAL RATES Put

18.3
10.8

t,,,

111,'

.41
1989
1990
1991
1992
1985
1986
1987
1988
1993
1994
1995
1996"
0.59
9.16
14.04 14.46
13.13 14.54 17.06 19.43 21.13 22.19 23.95 25.05
11.09 12.31
1.57
117
1.32
1.27
U8
1.31
151
1.70
2.16
J4
.05
1.10
2.00
2.20
1.D3
.71
J3. ]!I
.67
.61
.70
.04
.BI
.59
.n
1.13
UO
1.12
.25
.29
.33
.35
.13
.15
.16
11
.39
.2
A:l
.60
.97
. 9
A5
.78
.04
.87
.38
.76
.87
1.10
.02
.79
.80
1.00
5.03
6.96
7.66
7.87
8.29
8.04
m 4.16 U8
612
9.39 10.21 10.89
6'"
oz...
42.95 ".02 43.02 ".02 42.39
.U3 .",
m2
,1."
11).5
10.
1. 0
10.
12.7
1U
11.9
19.0
11. 12.7
131
16.1
11.'
'2.1
.79
.78
.59
.78
1.12
.85
.86
.82
.99
1.15
.85
.76
.76
.04
2.7%
3.3%
3.1% 1.9%
,'%
2.9'\
1.9% 3.4'
35%
2.1%
2.9% 2.0%
1.9'
1.9'
CAPITAl STRUCTURE as of &l3CW1
555.3 617.3
822.5 895.9 923.6 992.0 1032.3
lotll Debt $33.2 mil. Due in 5 Y... $32..9 mil.
11.6% 12.1% 101% 10. % 10.3% 11.0% 11.5% 10.3%
Ll IntItfu1 $.2 mil.
LT Dl:bt $3.3 mil
23.6
25.3
27.3
28.7
30.1
36.1
33.
33.8
Prinapat1 capital leases.
11% .. eap~
30.0
37.4
30.6
35~
41.4
41.0
55.0
51.7
38.9% 36.3% 42.61 41.11 41.5% 39.6% 34.8% 37.1%
Leases. UncapitaDzecl Annuall1!nlals $6.-4 mR.
5.4% 6.1"
Pens&on UGIItty None
.1%
4.31
5.1% 6.0% 5.31
m. 194.7 195.4 186~ 201.7 220.3 243.5 259.7
PM Stock None
H
31
2.0
J
3.0
2.3
1.9
Common Stock 38,038,347 shan!s
29ol.6 321.1 333.3 351.0 371.3 391.0 .22.0
448.6
14,058,101 Class A
121%
(99% of Cap'O 10.1% 11.6% 9.3% 10.01 111% 11>% 13.6'
23,980,246 Class BE
as 018131101
10.21 11.6% 91% fO.O% 111% 12.0'
12.3%
13.7'
MARKETCAP: $475 million (Small Clp)
5.6% 7.2% U'li
4.i11 6.41
7.1% Ui%
6>%
CURRENT POSITION
ZOOO .".,.,
.. %
38%
52%
51%
C%
.1%
m .. %
I_LLI
ea .. ....,.
80.0
BUSINESS: Kmtlal In1riImatbnal, Inc. mJlIllfac:luIes and markets
13Ul
84.8
ReOllivabios
132.2
180.9
150.0 cfIi;:e l.nwttn and selling under Kinbal, fMbonal, and H8fP813
117.7
117.1
~entcry (UFO)
"2
tnnds; offi::e fumilunJ s)'Slems; hDspialty, healh-aln!l, end home
33.8
26.1
30.9
furnitwe; ftnib:n mnponentl; and mre fixbns (11 aggnlg
381.5
Cunnt Assets
386.3
413.5
A.c:ds Payable
102.0 rtptllS8nti1g 69% rl1)1 sal.). Also prodllC8S HlctrDnic contract
78.0
'02.8
Dot<euo
'.7
38.'
29.' assemblies, priNriy IUPptp!g the nnsport!ti)n, compulllr, tal&66.7
82.1
85.'
10.

21.0
14.6

24.9
14.9

allIIL

1lI1i1ac11i:",-,

pill
.-.ice IIIfndtIt1

Stock's rice StablItJ


Price Grvwt!I Pe ... 1atMIcI

Eamhlp
I

70

20
80

PrMicllblltJ

'..

:11:

II',

LEAR CORPORATION NYSELEA IF

CfNl

P~CE

3 Rifled lI'l'Jl
3 NNllnMS
2 ....,.,'""

lIIEUIIESS
WID
TECHNICAl.

LEGENDS
41isCrjlr

. .

"C:~'"
tNJ _
.....

.u om. ~

BETA

RetzM Pm

25.851~Tll 8 0 (Trolng U) ~Rl%O.52 ~

High:

22.,

Low;

18.0

32.5
16.6

39.3
25.3

51.7

33.3

PrIce
115
55

'~DU'I

, ,.

Ann'ITataI
RItum

GIIn

'l~230~l
:U"
+115% 21%

,I

In.ider Decisions

....
....
I::::'" ~

MO.lF.,A..,,"

"

100 0 1 0 000
000
a 3 0 1 0 1
010440111
Institutional Decision.

:::;

IQJ.I

'00
95

"
,-

',

22.e

1,,1'1111'11"1"

57152

t......Uncapitlfiud Annualrentals $57.0 mil.

Pension lIablDty None

=~bIe
PId Sied: None

."."'"

Carnmon Skd. 63,946,358 shs.


(40% of Cclp1l
MARKETCAP: $1.7 biOlon(Mld Cap)

Car~

,no

ZOllO

106.9
1868.1
577.3
003..
3154.2
2245.3
1672
1074.9
3487.4

98.8
1639.0
538.8
551.4
2828.0
2174.0
228.0
969.8
3371.6

CURRENT POSmoN

Receivables
(FIFO)

~ntory

CulT1lntAssets

0Ihe'

CulT1lntUab.

126.5
1632.3
4212
525.4
2705.4
2253.0
'85.2

978.1
3396.3

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..

...,

......~,

"

Put

~=~

.. Q.6 51i' 1.'"


92.0
142.3
.. <12.1 59.' 91.2 151.9
_.
NM' ".K 41.31 40."
.. N", 1.9, 2.0% 2.4%
.. dn.2 dlti2.9 lIti8., d151.9
.. 493.3 418.7 1038.0 10S4.8
.. .,2 213.6 580.0 1018.1
.. 3.% 12.5% 8.1% 9.8'
.. Mol' 28.0% ".2% lU'4
..
28.D% 16211 14.9'
.. Mol'
..
..
..
..

184.04
1082
41.41
l8%
d239.1
1003.1
1207.0
11.3'
17.2%
172%

..

8USINIESS: Lear Ccrp. Is the IiIrgest independent fuIy integrated


iilulomJIiw inBD slIPpier ill the wcrtI. II develops, manufacllns,
and n&UIs: 58ating s)'Stl!lms,door p8J18ls IInd helIdli1ers; fklor
and acousbc sys1ems, and oller intllRIr arnponents.
Acq. AI, &'95;
Masland, 7,$; BonIiIlis. 12J36; KeipIa", 7m: Delphi S8dng bus.,
!Il98; UT Auto., 5t99. Urges! ~
G.M. (32% 01 '00 revs),

"...

,"

I.

<.,.

:ur::.

'93, 33;: '88, 51 ; '00, ~; '01 Q1, 4; IIX- .u pro fannI.


101In mIDIs.
lr.Ion::Iinary c:Mrge: '97, 1;. Next earnilgS (C) Includes .. tangibles. In 'DO, 53266 miIix1.
I1lportdue 0t:tDber 23rd.
Cl llO1, YMIe I..ile ~
~ ~
re5IImI. Fld~
1111115i. IS abain!d fnlIII -.us bIIIiewIIIla be ,...
alii is ~
TH PUBUSHE.RIS NOT R
~ .,. lie l"adIad.
ItsIIId.

QnII

SlBLL QRNl'f lRRORS OR 0MIS90NS HERE". lJIISfIIII*ai;o is ,..,.


u ----.,
ill MIJ p-.s.1I!JI:IIaIIIi:. III aIItI' ...
111115e11b IJIMI*lg II'

.........

-1rbIi1-r,r

-136

".0
01.6

~.1

2002

220."
lU5
W
Nil
~OO
23.1.

-::
-

"'.9
257.1
393%

'"

"000

C VALlIE LItE PlE ItC.

_""oil

CuII Flow" pII' Ih


EImIng1 pIr III A
DWds Dld'd pIr Ih
CIP'I SplncUng pi!' III
Book VIIlII pII' III C
I
Avg Ann'l PIE Rdo
RIkttYt PIERdo
Ayg Ann' [b'd Y"1IId

"""''''

=..~

'" OoprodaionNI....)
Not .....

InunITuRN

-..

'''"'
" ,"

f-

"'1~5O...
7.00
Nil
7.00
53.15

...

141
NI

17150
LOll

as

43
15.5%

....

L5%

W_u
Cop'l(lnm)
Long-11m DIbt ($nIII)

Sl":Euui1Y ,.... ,

1150

"'II

Raun an Totli ClIP'

..

Reluman Shr. EIlIIitv

income statement. After factoring this out.


we look for eanllngs to rise about 35%
year over year. As the year progresses.
auto industry output in North America
should stabillze, which would allow Lear's
sales. supported by new parts ~rograms,
to
edge higher. Moreover. pro t margins
should Improve as the company captures
the full savings from headcount reductIons
(In both North America and Europe) taken
earlier in 2001, and excess cash is used to
pay down debt.
These shares offer wide 3- to 5-year
appreciation
potentiaL Lear's healthy
backlog of new business ($3.5 billion over
the next five years) should keep the
line advancing at an annuallred m1
single digit pace over the course of the
auto cycle. And though prldng pressures
applied by the automakers will Ukely
make It difficult to boost operating margins, the maker of seats and other interior
components should be able to enhance Its
earnlngs
growth
by utlllzlng Its strong
cash-flaw generation to steadily deleverage
the balance sheet. Meanwhile. this stock is
neutrally ranked for the year ahead.
Robert M Greene, CFA
October 5. 2001

tot

COInpany's Fin.nciaJ StNngtfl

lI2.

-.a.

GpMI
plldll':1

stock's Prle. stability

60

Prica Grvwth ~
Eaminga Pl1ldictablltJ

35
35

-.lIIcIUI WIIT-*s II M1~ bid.

5-._~......"
piIMd III tB:Iiani: ~

'0

I- 7.5

11.'"
13.5%
Aetalnld 10 CClIIII q
13.51<
AI Div'ds III NIl Prof
NI
Ford (28"). Inn. IaIeS: 50%. 'tIO dep. r.rl8: 14.6%. Opemtes 335
faci1itieskI 32 CDUnD!s. Has aboul 121,000 empls. Oft. & 0 ... own
1.8% 01 common; Neuberger e.man, 6.2%; ~
"'-'1, 5.4%
(:Wl prtl:l)'). Chaman: K. L WilY.PrBIIent & CEO: RE. Ros
sllritr. Inc. DE. Address: 21557 T~
Road, Souarrerd, UI
48034. T.ph0n8: 800-413-5317. lnhJrn&twww._.cam.

.s"

Put Est'd '9I-'OD

.3.

.... ...

"

.... "......
..., ,. ~
,,".".

1.1" U" Nil""'''

-..

,.

1 ".

lOll
n.
3922
276.6
3fO
108.0
.o.K
n.Oll
MOll
38.'"
2.3%
~1% 2.K
.. 15
d299.5 d333.2 dM3.6
dI50
1463.4 3324.8 2!5~1
2350
1'00
17..
1300.0 1465.3 1600.8
9.4%
7.8% 9.6'
7.5%
1l0ll
'.Oll
".0% 17.5% 17.3'
16.0"4 17
17.3'
...HI
..
..
NI
219.1

..."

-....

60
50
40

'" T01. RETURN.1

......:;:

...

Lear Corp:. ZOlll eanJings wiD likely


fall about 30% short of last year's rec
to'MoW
ord. tally. A slowdown in U.S. vehicle
llYn.
Sales
-- 18.0%
e.'"
sales and market-share losses to roreign
''Cash Flow"
- . 31.0% 10.0'71: lightvehiele
manufacturers have caused
.. 40.5% 11.5"
..
Nil
.lhe company's two I~est
customers, Gen_.
Book Value
15."'
48.5"
eml Motors and Fo . to cut back prodllUARTBlLISAW(hillj
Full uctlon. This weakness in North America
eo.
Vu, a~ars
lar."-r Jun.Per $ep.Per Dec.Pe
likely to persist over the balance
1191
!1059 a lhe year. Lear recently announced that
2032 2115 1!M7 2905
,..7
1191
1:M29 production cuts. primarlly al Ford. in the
2087
3~
:util
14073 wake of last month's terrorist attacks
3805
3702
31" 33li2
1337. would cut September-quarter earnings by
1001
3tiO!I
1981 3300
1001
13900 about $0.20. With the the current industry
3700
:m7.
3.15
EARl8iS PER SHARE A
Cal
Full downtunl likely to endure longer than we
IIlr.Per Jun.Per S'D.Per DeeP. v- had. previously anticipated. we have also
1991
.69
3.00 cut SO.15 and $0.25 from our December.9ti
.32
1.09
3.80 quarter and 2002 share-net estimates.
1191
.75
1.37
1.10
.58
UO The part:s maker should bounce back
.93
1.33
.59
1.35
.
g
2.5. nicely next year. Part of the earnings
1001
.26
1.25
ZOO2
1.20
.10
1.71l
recovery we envision In ZOO2 Is attrlbin the aa:ountQUARTERLY OMlENDS I\\ID
CaIFull utable to a pending ~e
lar.31 Jun,30 Sell.30 Dec.31 v., ing treatment roc goodwi l. Because of the
company's aggressive acquisition strategy
1117
durlng the Nineties. amortization of goooNO CASH DIVIDENDS
wtll (a noncash charge) now clips share net
1191
BBNG PAIl
by about $1.25
Beginning
next
1001
year. however, it
no longer impact the
(A) DlJIBd .-n~' ExclJdes nomiC. bn8S: IB) Figaaes in 1993 .nd r.st qunr rJ 1994 $S1.39Ish-.
ANNUAL RATES

..

'00

---

30

Lear Corporation is the successor to a 1991 1992 1993 1994 199. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
..
.. 56.51 6831 83.81 95.30 109., 135.86 18&.62 221.43 .... 00
seallrame manufacturing business founded
..
..
in 1917. The CU"ent company began oper
1.11
3.31
5.98 1052
L7.
252
H9
5J7
..
.. <I, 1.2li 1.111 ~38 3.05 6.3.05.4' 3.80 .20 LOS
ating as an independen1,pUblidy traded cor
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
.pomon in April, 19901.Since 1990, ~ has
.Nil
-..
.. 1.33 22. 1.97 ~35 ~81 ,IT 5.88 5.07 ~oo
completed numerous acquisitions, inclUding
..
.. IlS
18.05
19.50
22.00
25.19
11.0.
AulDmotive Indusbies, Masland. and the
15.53
'OJ1
..
..
.55 NoOO
seal businesses of Fia~ Ford, Saab, and
..
..
.. ''1.8 13.4 14.3 13.8 15.5
VOM>.Since the In~al offenng of 9,375,000
10.7
5.'
.. .97
j()
shares, the company has used debt 10 fund
.90
.80
.81
J8
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
its acquisition program, and equity 10
refinance its debt load, the .most recent ex..
.. 1~.3 3147.5 471U 6249.1 1342.9 9059 . 12429 1.4073 1m.
ample being the July, 1996 offenn9.
..
.. 7211 72%
8.51
7.1%
9.'%
8.7'
'.5%
'3%

..

2006

!.llllil

...
.'

h.....

-- --

- --.

III

'll r'f

,,.

200<4 200.

20

P.rcent 12.'

CAPITAL STRUCTURE u of 1131M11


Total DlbI $2S7J.O mi. DINi'" 5 YIS S1821.5mil.
LT Interut $225.0 mil.
LT Dtbl $2407.8 mil.
(LT int8I85I: earned: 2. 1x; l:Jta11'lhnst
(60% dCap1)
aMIIiISIe: 2.OX)

Target Price Range

42.4

36.3
19.3

'. .. .. . . ....

."

.. ..." ,~.... ,.

,"",
,

'00

53.9
28.8

.... p ..
SWengIJ

2OIl4-46 PROJECTlONS

........

57.8
29.6

Nil

1Ie*l:MIF

I',

II:

II'

I~~cr
20.751~oo10.9(=:~::)~~

LINCOLN ELECTRIC NDQLECO


I

LEGENDS
7.5. ~I~

HIgh:

low:

r..... p

15.1
10.5

17.9
11.6

25.0
16.6

21.2
15.B

23.8
17.8

0.63 ~ 2.9%
24.4
11.0

Target Price Range

26.4
17.9

20~

2005 2006
50

VI

........

"TOT.~:
I

1yr.
yr.
S yr.
3

11.3

.10.6

2.3

263

64.8

55.1

I-

r
l-

lie, _
Linooln BeclIic began producing electric 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 cVALUELJlEPIll

..
20.74 22.35 23.55 24.68 24.42 25.00 2120
25.00 SIIn 1* lib
motors des~ned by its founder, John C. Lin

_.

1.83
2.09
2.31
2.53
2.16
2.86
2.10
J.OO "Cuhflow"plflll
4.10
coin, in 1895. A decade and a ha~ lalor i in

f.32
1.50
1.13
1.91
2.M
2.02
1.15
110 Ean*lgSpII'M A
,110
troduced its first walding machin . In 1995,

.11
.2-4
.33
.-40
.-48
.~
.10
.ID Div'd. DKl"d pII' Ih
.11
th. company meapitali2ed its common stock
into three classes: two YDting (on. 01 which 1--+--+--+--+---;;;+---;Orl'-'~
'Efi-I-m-+--7.;+--iiii+-T.;-;;;=';:>=:?;2~~+---i7.-i
.
-.

.
~7
.80
.76 ...1.69
1.042
.82
UIJ
1.10 Clp'lSplndinIlPWsh
.110

.,5

..
..

.
6.63
7.90
8.88
10.21
10.15
10.56
11.10
1115 Bcd:Val_pwlh
1'.55
was eliminated in 1997) and one Class A'-_+-_+-_+--+-..:c;;:+"";:;,;..j--";;;;-hiiiii-+-;rn-h~i+-mi+-m;i-f;<==tt=x;:=-..+--nii-j
non-Yoting. Th. Class A and one 01 the'..
.
..
.
49.78 ".ti2
".22 45.06 .....
42.34
".W C..........
0I ... 0 <
".W
voling issues were lisled separately on the 1--+--+--+--+-=;;rt--=;;rJ---=;r.;-f-'irrr+-;;'::;+-=ii[-f-;;==-=:'-ti='io:;;vD:.'-'--j---':;;~
.
.
.
.
U
9.6
11.0
11.2
10.1
a..4 8oIdlrGl--_
AVIIARn1P/f:Rdo
140

.63
.60
.63
.58
.58
.56
~
u. RIIatIvt PIERdo
.15
NASDAQ exchange in June althat year, On
6/1198, Lincoln converted its common stock
.
..
..
..
1.711
1.7%
1.7%
,'%
2.3%
3.4%
-I- A.gMn1Iliv'dY....
1.1"
into a single voting dass by swapping two I--+--+--+-+="+"':;:",-+=",-I-"'O-+-::::+-"",+---::::+--:::::f:="",'=:';'-==--j---=",:-!
.

.
1032.-4 1109.1 1159.1 1186.7 1086.2 1058.6
NO
10Z5 s.Its($ml)
1515
shares of a new issue in exchange for each
..
.
..
..
13.3% 12.8% ".1%
14.8% '8.3%
18.4%
lU"
Dooninoli_
17.""
OIJIs1andingvoting and Class A non-voling 1-'-'+--+--+-+""*""";Tj--"'iiTf--":iiiT+-"~+-'~;+-'T.rr-'T.""E"::'l~E;;;--j--"'7~
..
..
..
..
29.1
29.5
29.'
29.1
29.1
34.1
310
310 01plCi_(1niI11
41.0
share (thereby effecting a 2lor 1 spli!).
.
.
..
.
61.5
74.3
85.4
93.7
93.7
86.2
.0.0
15.tJ NelProftlNI
135

'1"

'u"

CAPrTAL STRUCTURE u of 6I3GI01


TotaIDebt$76.6mil.
LT Delli SJl.6mil

DueInSYrs$75.0mil.
LT Int.,. $2.8 mI.

(7% 01Cap'Q

Leases, UnCllp!taIiDdAnnual

rentBls 56.7 mil


Pfd Stock None
Cammon Stock 42,383,658 shs.
(93% of Cap1)
MARKET CAP; $815 millan ISmail Cap)
CURRENTPOSrTlON
1m 2000 &IJOIQ1

I_ILl

CaSl Asset5
:;e:.a~'(t.FO)
Other
Current Assets
Acds Payable

8.7

11.3

16.1

416.1
62.7

433.8
59.7

-.

..

..

..

..
.

__._

..
..

..
.

__

..
.

37.0\ 36.8\
6.QII. 6.7% 7.4\
1884
213.7
249.0
.
93.6 642
54.'

38.3\

330.0
15.6%
18.6%
15.9'1.
15%

391.8
11.1%
19.0%
15.9'1.
16%

-431.2
18.0%
19.5%
16.3'1.
16%

36.31
7.91
241.7

46.8
-490.9
18.0'19.1"
15.1'
21'1.

BUSIfESS: liK:orI Electric tk*lings, rnc. produces II compn,hensiva line of wekllllg and artIing produds, manufadlnd
i't one d
thn!le axnpany-cwned flciilies i't the United Stn!s and 19 abrwd.
InBnational operations generatIId 31'" of '00 sallis. "00 depr. rUB:
6.2%. Acq'd a.:ioni:: Weldilg ~,
7196; a controlling m ...-

~~~:g
~~:~
~~~
67.3
69.1

56.3
-426.6
64.5

ZIO% 31.8" InanITu:RatI


.. n;
I,", NI1Pro11I1q11
167.8
110
150 WarlliIllc.p1(hlll
38.6
10.0 lO.t langTorn _ (1niI)
441.3
505
SID Shr'-EquIly l... i

36.0%

36.2%

8.61

8.11

210.2

'12
451.5
19.3%
20.7%
Hi.9%
24\

1B.1%
19.3%
13.9'1.

28'

11.5%
1l""

11.5%
3n;

RelumonToWCapl
RI1um on SIu. Eallftv
11.5% RmiMcllII Can Eq
ztI AlDiv'dslIIfMtPraf

11.0"
11",

X'"
.. '"
150

lO.t
745
110%
11.0"

110%

1n

Sold gas disrn unl, '96; e6eci't: Ird:lrs unI. '99. Has 6,025 ernpls.
Members of the ~
BnJy IIfId the Linwkl FoundllliJn own (n
tolaQ 15.8% r:l nxt; ether oft. & di"., 3.3%; I!fnPIoY8e -401K pIlIn,
3.2"'; KeyCorp, 8.7'" (3/tl1 pruxy). Clnnn., Pn.., & CEO: A. A.
MISUrtI. Inc.: OH. Addr8u: 22801 Sl Clei' Ave., CIIrnJI;Ind, OH

::;:~:;-.,=.:.::.""";::::,;--1

Debt Due
Other
Cumlnt liIIb.
ANNUAL RATES

27.9
55.1
39.0 1,-,;"":::-::""I:::'da:;"'=-;A""""0"'C;3I98:.:;::"U:::""'=.;'";,-&:..::'_::::;:::',-;4I98;:;:;"C:::.I:::.F:::.E.=:,
.;."=lll. ~44;,',,'1:;. ..:.":::"::~::;.:;2c:.'' ' c;::',:''::':::00::,.;::'' ' ':;:::m&t::,,,_::::::. ::...
124.0
130.5
146.9
216.4""""248.3
245JI l.Jncoln Electric will
probably continWith market conditions remalnlng lackPat
Pat Est'd ""00
ue to face a challenging
operating en luster. acquisition prices appear to be fallCIf~,(PW~1 tun.
5Yf1
toM-...
vironmeot .. Flagging domestlc Indus- Ing somewhat. Meantime, despite sluggish
Sales
_.
3.5%
8.5"
trial actlvity has aimped demand for the sales, we believe profit margins will hold
''Cash FJow"
-.
8.0%
10.OK
company's welding equipment and related up fairly well, due to a number of cost adEarTW'lgs
8.5%
10.5"
DiYilends
_.
18.0%
6.~
pr ad ucts rlor some time . U nill tecen L1y. rlor- vantages Inherent to Unco In Electrl c. Th e
Book Value

Calendar

__

11.5"

9.0,,"

QUARTERLYSAlfSIS-a)
IIIlr.31
Jun.:JD SujQ o.c.31

Full
Yeu

eign operations offered some respite. but companys unique variable compensation
the economic malaIse has spread overseas. Stnlcture, which allows employee
costs
to
At this juncture, only a handful of markets more
closely
track volume, coupled with
In Asia and select O~dUdng
regions of ongoing efforts to trim expenses and Im-

::~i~m~~::
:~ ~=:!~~~
,.

~e~ce~ties.~~n~a~:::~

252.6 249.-4 239.9 Z31.f


2OD2 Z4D
Z5D
265
Z7(J
C.
EARmlGSPER
SIIAREA
2001

Mtdu

IIlr.31Jun.30
51

Sep.SO

47

Dec.31Y....
45 1.91

1998
1199
2DOO
2001

48
.
:~
.52

.51

2D02

.41

.50

.Sf

2.06
2.02
U5
2.10

c.J.

QUARTERLYDMlEJl)$PAI).

Full

.
:~

.
:~
.45
.55

.
:~
,(1

lI.r.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Y... r


fll7
.075 .075 .075 .10
.33
1.
.10
.10
.10
.10
..40
1119 .12
.12
.12
.12
.48
2DlIO
.1-4
.14
.14
.14
.56

end.,

2D01

.15

.15

.15

.15

~v:ct:;dr~:lix~~~tt~~~~~~e
F~
thermore. recent tax-planning strategies
have helped reduce govenunent claims,
lending further support to net profits.
of its tactics. the company should per- On balance. share eanaings may tread
fonn better than most of its peers. A water for the next several quarters
or
corporate focus on product development. so. Current initiatives. however. should
supported by a llberaJ research budget. enable Lincoln Electric to enter the next
may help It to continue capturing market upswing In the welding cycle both leaner
share. Management continues to pursue and stronger. At this juncture, we antldbolt-on merger opportunities as a means to pate demand wtU begin to improve in mldfurther expand its presence. Perhaps as a 2002 and grow steadily thereafter. Based
model of things to come, it inked a deal on that expectation. the stock offers worthlast quart
1 her ln1dlnacqulre
85% of the equi ty whUe 3- to 5-year Bpprec.latlon potential,
b
1
in a Po Is we
g uslness,
the emp ayeven before considering the potential conees of which will receive the remaining trlbutlons of future acquisitions.
15% stake. (Tenns were not disclosed.) LarsL. Bainbridge
November 2. 2001
NlIXt dividend mB8Iing about Decanber AprI, July, and Octobllr.
Flnandll &1mltth
A

NO
sened in the wake of the recent terror:lst
10Z5
assaults. a rapid recovery seems unlikely.
F.n
but. as a testament
to the efficacy

(A' Diluted l!IlIrTlings. EKckJcIesnet norI1lCII'.


(8)
ring charges: "99, 8; '00, 19. Nu:t eiIII1i'tgs 5th. Goes u aboul Dec8rnber 30th. DMdends
report due mii-Fflbruaty.
gennlly pall on or I1OiII" thlI 15th at January,

CI Zlilt YIIue I..ile I'lJtiI5ImQ. lilt. AI nglts rcsernIl. Fad1IIIllIIIeIill


is CIIUiIleIlIIanI
tI:ItftI5 ~
ID be
THE P\.IWStER CSJIll R.E.~}ORNf'!
[~OR
OM~SHREIN.
nm.~
5 ~
af lIJ lit ItP'*ft.ItSlId.
Knd II hMIIMIld 11111)' ,mtll. ~
IIIl1'1l1 ...
II med III .,.-1IIin;

Camp_""

SIoclr'a pnc. StablltJ


Prb Growth ~rsisWlcl
EamlnglP.-dk:bbllty

(CI In milions, acljustllll b split.

r1WIIe..r is pGrided ~
~~

1ItJ priIIld

01

_~
lltallftl: ~

rlllIJ' kiML
~
No,.n

SInU II pWId

10
7D
90

_
t

I '.

II:

t I'

4.8%

LONGVIEW FIBRE NYSELFB


18.8
1,9

23.0
15.8

2:3.6
14.9

'9,tI
13.3

19.3
14.1

22.4
14J!I

17.4
9.4

17.4
10.3

17.8
10.6

Taru-t Price Range


2004 2005 2006

14.3
8.3

..
50

32
24

, ,..

,1

2()

"

,."

'I..

....

",.-

. :

.
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992


13.26 12.46 13.37
827
8.79 10.26
11.89 12.16
1.85
.86
1.09
1.70
233
2.110 2.13 1.44
1.13
.32
.62
.40
.60
1.11
1.74
121
.52
.52
.52
.26
.26
.32
.4JJ
.48
2.57
1.97
1.26
.68
.49
1.52
<13
231
7.49
129
7..39
3.89
4.21
5.06
6.39
7.05
51.69 51.611
51.7
!IS.51
.5
55.
55
10.4
391
24.3
11.5
1,.1
'L
'L 11.6
2.50
1.41
.93
.68
.62
.51
.88
77
5.5%
41.61 3.0% 3.7'
3.41
.n. 3.5'

.4.4'

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE lIS or 7131101


Total Debt $587.04 mi. 0118 in 5 lIS $.518.1 mill.
LT Deb! $518.4 mil.
IT tn1erwC $35.6 mill.
Ind. 126.9 mill. capitalized IIIaseS.
(LT irterBI1-e: 2.4:1;IotlIIint8n15t coverage:
2.")
(55"of cap~

PM Siock None

StocIl51,076,567!1M.
ud&f31101
Cammon

(45% 01 Capl)

MARKET CAP: S500 million (Small Cap)


CURRENT PQSIJ10N11tH
2DClO 7131101

Ca:-~

RUOitiY8blus
~ntory (UFO)

CunertAss8ts

-- '. --

105.0
79.6

113.5
82..0

-..!!
192.7 ~~.o

Accts PlI)'lIbie
Debt Due
0081

43.7

56_0

72.5

25.0

61..4
28.8

CunentLiiilb.

124.7

162.7

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1996 1999


13.29 15.26 19.04 15.91 14.96 14.58 14.98
2.02
2.11
2.05
3.00
2.63
1.92
1.55
.39
.78
.64
1.47
U19
25
d.13
.52
.52
.60
.&4
.64
.54
.28
1.03
1.57
2.68
W
3.01
1.72
.63
8.14
7.69
1.80
8.65
9.10
8.70
8.03
51.88 51.83 5.75
51.71 51.68 51.68 51.68
33.3
22.3
30.6
11>
14.9
NMF

1.90
1.32
2.01
.16
.93 NMF

3.0'
1.1%
3.6% 3.9'
3.6% 3.1% 21\
644.0 691.0 689.6 790.9 985.5 822..7 m8
753.2 no
15.41 19.4,\ 22.3" 18.9' 23.1' 22.41 17.3' 14.41 1'.'%
842
511.0
63.4 69.0
72.7
19.4 19.5 86.4 81.0
20.0
16.6 32.1
40.3
33.4
76.0 56.4
12.7 d6.7
36.5%
26.0" 32.3, 36.1'
38.5%
36.8'
35.1"
34.91

2.6"4
4.6,\ 5.8"4
4.2"4
1."'"
6.9"4
1.61 NMF
2.6%
21.8
30.1
34.3
35.8
416
51.0
-40.4 55.3
68.0
356.0 362.4 321.5 366.5 409..
426.3 4!11l.1 541.0 495.9
3n.O
382.1 398.8 404.3 447.9 470." 449.5 414.9 420.5
..,1
41% 4.3\
7.1% 5.9% 10.110 8.1" 3.0"
111
4.4%
8.4,\ 10.1%
8.31 17.01 12.01 2.810 N,\fF
01
NMF
NMF

1.4\
64\

3.3%

1.6'

10.01

67% 81'

41'

4.MIi

59%

NMF
NMF

NMF
NMF

8USINESS: longview Fibre Comp8ny oper;des i1 tJwee busi'1ess


segrnsnt!l. Produces tmbeJ fel" ule domestically and interniilb:lI\al-75.1!y. PrDdUce!II PlIJlW .nd PllpsboiR pnxIucts (101 papllf, con----.!!
WA. Pro181.4 taiwbolln:l) at its pulp .nd papermil pDnl: in lnnnvn,
_ ....
52.0 duces conY'IIrted prodod:s (Shippilgcontainen, lIIIumlndis&, and
69.0 grocery bags; represents OWl' hat rA ~Y'S
latal S18s)IrIIix23.8
96.9

Fibre"s
timber
operations
near-tenn uncertainty. The segANNUAL
RATESPm
Put Esfd~'IO
ment's operating profit jumped 28%, year
oIChq1(pwIil)
11Y1'I.
to Jvp:::tor,
in the fiscal third quart ... (ended
Sales
2.0% HIS.
.5'" bl""'M
4.0"
-,
'"CasIl.-.
'.5"
-5.0"
5""
July 31st), largely due to a 29% Increase In
Eamngs
-13.0% -19.5% 18.0"
log volume sold. Logging harvests, how-4]~ ~:~ ever. were curtailed somewhat in the curr.,F;=.....::;,r=';;QU;;AR;;TERL;;:;:-iiI~SA;;"-E;;S;-;II;:IIIIJ:;:;
~-T~F;;; oI rent quarter
because
of fire conditions
in
l: Ju'" Apr.31JIr,j, 0cu1 ~I the Padnc Northwest. In addition, average
17.~-rn~'-';i;r.'--i;;;;;-;;;o;;rl-""'!rllurnber prices feU 7% In the July period,
11911 176.2 185.9 194.2 196.9 753.2 and they continued to decline recently.
1999 163.3 186.4 197.6 227.0 774.3 Houslng-start comparisons win likely be
2000 2OS.S 216.8 220.3 233.7 876.3 negative over the next several months,
2001 219.6 214.1 220.5 21U
I7D
zoaz 1,S
1IS
IOS m
nq
keeping pressure on prices. On a brighter
note. L~iew
should benefit from a
F"1KlI1
EARMNGSPERSHARE.u
Ful
Jln.31 Apr.30Jill.31OeLS1F~=, 19.3%
placed on Canadian softwood.
1-f.~-frr.rT,""'-=;;':--=:~+T.'"-llumber.
The Commerce Department ap11911 d.14
d.09
.06
.02
d.13 pears to be leaning
toward arguments by
1991 d.02
.10
.08 .23
.39 the domestic industry that Canadian Iwn2000 .11
.24
.21
.18
.73 her is unfairly
SUbsidized. A dedslon on
2001
.16
.CS .19
.M
.50 permanent tariffs is expected by yearend.
2D02 HI
.Ia
.11
.20
.41
Paper,
paperboard.
and
box
C.I
QUARlERlYDIVDENDSPAilC
FilII businesses
are only marginaJJy
pro6tend.r Mar,]1 Jun.30 Sep.3D Dec.], Yur able at this point. But without sales of
1117
.16
.16
.16
.16
.64 its sw-plus power capadty
In the fiscal
19911 .16
.16
.14
.06
.54 third quart .... adding nearly $0.05 a share
11l!9
.02
.02
.06
.16
.2B
eamln
th
un!
ould ha
b
2010
.12
.12
.12
.12
.48 to
gs.
ese
ts w
ve een
2001 .12 .12 .12 .1Z
just above breakeven.
These sales, how1.....8

Longview

f7.=::::=:;;::=:-;~~:::"::-':=:;""'-;;;~;;.jface

=~~1~
,..]~
l:

FI!CI.I J'IllII'.neb Odober 311l


slw'es thrDugh1996,
1B'1 BiilEdon
iiIV8fiIg8

then dlutBd. Quarterly eamings mllY not SdIl


to total due klltlUnding. Next elmllgl h!p(X1.
CI Zlll1, ..... liNe NIin'IQ. IIIc. g rillN5l15t1'ft1l.

due ... ~bllrICI


Nad div"d meeting
.bout Dee. 13. Goes ex ilbout Dec. 20. Apprux..
PB)'II'Illnt dales: 1011 0( January, Apri, July,
Clctobs". Incl tpedal diYds: 10/88, 4; 101'89,
fldlllllllalilll
is CIliIIirBI hlIIlI ~
beIie'felI to be

THEI'U8USHERISNlJTR[s:PoHs.BllORANY[RR~OR~ONSHrREIN.This~i:iSh:lyb~_._~iPil.""
rill .1J1Je~
1PKIId. ..
1;1 ~
III1'1J' pnm. ...
11 DIB .... U 05l1li b ~
II

1.3%
721

--..ny ..

is ~

-12.5
-18.8
-25."

.10.6
26.;3
55.1

11"

n.

4.3%

101.

z.n

42.3
490.'
<12.0
61%
8.7~

aD
120
425
5.01
,""
..51

ID.O
520
<25
(5%
5.5"
NIIF

3.0%
66%

t'"

NIIProtlll1rgln

Woridng Clip' ($11111)


Long., ... Oobt (~
Sh,:Ea;IIY
RIIumlII'I TolIICap'
R8IIrmonShr. EII~

5II,t1
4111
,1/1
l5%
14M(,
15%
'2%

,,,,,,iii'

Rllaln1d1oComEq
101% AI Dtv'ds 10 Nit Prof

95"

teen COrM!rting plants in el8ven sID!S. Owns 570,993 'aes of 1m


beRlnd in Oregon & Washif19b1. Exports iIaXIUnted lor 18% 01 'DO
uI!s. HiI!I about 3,750 ernpL, 10,000 sh.ehPlden. Ofts. & dn.
own 9.6% d Sb:k (12/00 Pru:I;y). Channan and CEO: Ri:hlll'll P.
WoIent.g.
Inc.: WA. Addr.: 300 An WilY, Longview, WA 98632.
Tel.: 360-425-1550. hdemel: www.longvi6.Wfitn.am

ever, declined to $14.8 million, compared


to $25.6 mII1Ion In the April period, and
we think prospects are dimming as the energy aisls abates. Though product prices
are likely nearlng bottom,. our estimate for
flattlsh
consolidated earnings in fiscal
'2002 is based on lower power revenues.
The company continues to develop
specialty converted products to help
reduce costs. That's the strategy behind
a new container plant in Kentucky (Long
view's first venture into the mid-South),
which Is just
starting
up. The diverse
product output
should ganler
aboveaverage margins
when container prices
improve as a whole. The new fadUty also
reduces Longview's exposure to the competitive Uncrboard

market.

We would hold oft"on this untimely issue. Though the stock has a good.dividend
yield, the payout is not well covered and
capital needs are high.
Craig Sirois
October 12. 200J
CASHPOsmON
1131111
C~

.......

to ClnWlnt lJabllW.-

C .. h & EquIw1

w~

.tImlA......-s

-.I U *'dIcrc .......

...................

2000 2001 2002 "VALlElJifPUB1/ . 114-46


16.99 17.05 15.15 ~s pw sh A.
1U
2.04
1.10
1.10 "CashFlow" per Ih
2.55
.13
.511
.45 EarnIngs JIll' all II
.1lI
.48
.11
.41 ONd. n.d'd,..." C
"'"
2.06
U'
.Ill Cop'l Spendlna,.. oil
lOll
8.38 1.30
120 BoolY1llu8persh
if 0
51.511 ,H 10
51.10 ICOIMIIOIlShs Duut II P
5O.5IJ
11.'
~_
''IIAnn'I~Rdo
21a
1.1l
_ ~
R_
PIERdo
1.46
3.7\
;"8 Ann' OWdYllld
876~
I7D
810 Slin (WI ,.
N5
1'.8% 17.0% llO% 0....... _ .. In
llO"
~.4
70.0
75.0 OllpKiltlCIIllmiQ
15.0
37.'
23.8 N~Prott(""')
41.8
36.1% 17.01 37.01 IaCOftlllTu.RItI
J7.OI

s...:

C.plalto

rIl ..,. UlcL


.. fiio~
MnI:r II fIIlIdIiCL

.~ ."
12S~

to ClnWlnt L.ilbiIti85:

B; 1090, 3; 1l:W2 & 1tv8J, 12;:; 1CW5,~;


1Q196, 4.
(D) In milDnl, ~
for sD::k spit.
nIiItIIe

Company's Financial Sbwngtb


ft)ck's Prlca Stlbilly
PricI Grawth r.rs1stMce
Earnings PrMietabllty

C++

75
10
20

I'.

II:

II' ,

LOUISIANAPACIFIC
3 .....l/M1
3 ... m..
3 _",...,

TWEUII[SS

SAFElY

High:
law:

Arm'I TGb:I
PriCil
GIIn
Rn.m
15
28"
10
+60%
15"
Insider Decisions

&/93

.2.0

31.5
14.6

1I11111
,..

25 .

"

1Ol01

--

"

" ..,,""/

,,'

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997


'15.76
10.00 1179
27.14
1186 11.91
102'
1.91
3.11
4.01
4.86
1.64
3.44
.94
~ 1.63 236 3.15 1.59
.07
d.1S
.36
.49
J9
.43
.55
.56
.56
U7
1.85
1.69
255
3.35
U4
1.41
11.15
1248
14.10 16.51 15.11l 1113
11.73
rlT["18 nmI!r
TDr.9"f ~
1
.5
1(0
2U
14.8
109
1!T NW
1.56
.8$
.7
.71
NMF
1.08
-29~
1.7%
12~
~1~
24~
27~
1102.1 1164.7 2511.3 3039.5 2843.1 2486.0 2-402.5
8.0~
15.0' 11.1~ 24.51 1',9% 16.6"
4.0%
163.0 1632
149.8
197.3
101.6 191.8 183.9
55.9 176.9
158.8 346.9 170.1
7.
d812
36.01 37.51 39.5114 37.5% 36.41 37."
-10.3% 11.4%
.3~
B."
6.0%
NMF
1019
2~.6 1969 349.6
170.0
134.5 1T1.5
491.7 386.3
1.8.6
109.8 201.3
458.6
571.3
1103.6 1361.0 1571.4 1849.4 1656.0 1427.6 1286.2
H% 10.7" 14.3% 17.'% 9.5~
.9~
NMF
13.0% 16.5~ 18.8~ 10.3'
.5~
NOF
99~ t3.5'
15.9% 6n
NIF
NOF
7O~ 14~
18~
15~
NMF
NOF
34~

..

U"

Due In 5 Yrs $12Smil

('''''''''''''-

(48%

ct Clp'O

"
I.
20

/"1.

III

i!!ii ,
,

/
.

- - --

..

10

, ,

......:::

1931..
9.7~
235.5
31.0
38.8~
1.1'
215.9
1183.8
1295.2
2.8"
25~

2425
1.'"
195
.,,5

2410
tOll
1..

26.4
-64.9

-10.8

-611.8

".1

".".
cYALUEUNEP1J8
1 ".

...."

1878.6
10."
101.0
221.9
44.slft
39.4"
1.7~
1.1%
14>.5 198.7
459.8 101-4.8
11128 1360.0
10.3%
3.3'
3.1% 16.3~
NMF 12.0%
NMF
17~

.......

-.
.....
""
,... -

.. TOT. RrnRI IID1

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002


21.41
27.42
15.08 2J.20 23.50
208
4.04
256
.55
1.55
.31 dUO
.35
209
d20
.56
.56
.56
.20
1.14
1.86
.75
1.12
1.15
11.40 11.96 11.08
US
fU{97
104.36 ,104.50 -"US
35.6
NlW
'.8
1-NOF
236
.50
;;;, ~
1.8~
3.0%
5.1%
2297.1
11.1'
165.4
38.1

12

I.

,
.

LTklhrest $85.0 mil.


Incl. $10.6 mill! capb.rrzed leases.

2005 2006

2004

P.rcent 11.' ..
11.1

Target Price RanQII

5.5

7.1

.. .. .b.r..

1m.1

7.
82
67 tTa~
4.0
57'" 59878 "..70
~
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
16.66
11.16 13.61 16.11 16.09
17.62
216
1.61
1.37
1.18
151
2J3
1.68
.81
22
.59
1.09
1.18
J3
.35
24
.10
zr
.30
3.48
5.1S
1.86
1.35
1.70
228
6.86
8.54
8.08 10.17
10.31 10J4
lOrn
mn6
110.
1
11
1U lOT
IT 14J
55
1.06
1.43
1.00
.68
.S4
.71
3.0~
3.6~
25~ 3.0~
V~ 3.0~
CAPrrAl STRUCTUREu of IiI3CW1

14.0

15.8

24.9
11.4

'"
32

"-

"

20000
0 0 0 0
00000
1 ODD
00100
1 000
Institutional Decisions

TobIl Debt $1190.2mil.


IT Debt $1084.2 mil.

"

....

-"

II III I

'L1'.'

HDJF.".JJ

242
16.4

25.9
17.0

211.1
19.6

50

".

1'1" ,1111

30.5
20.9

".0

28.8
0<'

0;::;;;.'"
_~nuBDn

(;140%~t

....

...."
....
:!-'!.

15.if
8.8

Hal'l"'"

PRwEClXlNs

i"

PRICE

LEGENDS
UI. C.5h FIlM"' P 5h
. , RetIM Pm SftIigll
].a-21f11!1 li'92

TECHNICAl
aETA .15 (1.oo.~
2_

15.1

PHAno NMfDlV'D
YlO 3.2%
6.30T~mNMFG:~;~1) RElATfIE

~RECEHT

NYSElPX

~C.
SoIapor III
CIUih Row" pII' III
E.1iJIU1 pII' Ih A
DWd, Ded'd pi' Ih ..
C"'_,porlll
Book YItIIt per Ih

....'"

A'S An" PI< .. liD


RMdln PIERdo
AV8 Ann' DiY'd Y'1IId

~":':i_
O"";=~II

dZO.' Nil Proit

2U5
~IS
1.10
.20
1.411
11.10
11.0
.75
1.7~

:1000
It'"
21S
flS

'1.0"

IIIF incorH Tu RIll


Leas .. , UnapltlllDd None
IIIF ...... 11.....
,to
UO W..... , c..>1tln-)
158
Pension U.blllty None.
1200
1170
1120
Sh,.
.
$nil
1I4D
1115
10
Pfd StoctNone
1O~
Common S10ct
104,437,911 shs .
"/IF
2'" RIbn CIIlTutIt Cap'
.ulIll1210t
(52%afCap'Q
HIIF
IIIF R.... "'SIu.E .....
IlARKET CAP: $650 mIlnon (Small C.p)
NOF
H/IF
IIIF RmlnMl to Ccn Eq
7.'"
CURRENT POSrJl)N
Hiif'
NOF
IIIF AI DlY'dllD"'" Prof
1711
~U.I
55.7 SUSlfIESS: LDusi!g.p-* Corponti:ln ,5 the Iirg8sf manufacCa
.......
BU~iJg Products Co., 2199. 2000 depRJciation me: 5.9%. Hal
116.0
38.'
Receivables
129.6
200.7
turerof Orien1ed SnOO BOlInI
IOSB) in Nortl Amen:iI. II alsct pm- aboUl 11,000 e~,
16,400 mckholden. n. ClpUI RaInventory (UFO)
327.5
222.6 duces au. buildilg products, and m .. Iesw" e:rtBnI, maRBI:pulp. sean:h & Managemen1 Co. IMns 8.8% 01 ccmnon *ck;
293.4
125.2
158.9
129.3
2000
sales
breakdown:
structLnl
~,
&2%;
exIllrxr
produds,
orfsJDrs.,
2.7%
(3101
~).
Oai". & CEO: Man: A.. Suwyn. Inc..:
C4Jrren1Assets
572..0
654.1
739.4
AI;t;U Payable
189.& 178.4 11%; i1duDiaI panel producb, 10%: pulp, 5%; othw, 12%. Arr DCIIiIw.e. Addnlss: 111 S.W. Fifth AY8I'lIl8, Pcd1nd, Oregon
195.0
Debt Due
39.' 106.0 qurecl Eva", Fcnst Prnductl, 11199;lei Qooupe Fcnx. 9199: ABT 97204. Telephone: 503-221-0800. Internet: www.lpcorp.alIII.
0lh<K
148.9
140.1
300.'
is unlikely to return
ued lD slow. As such, LPX and many rom424.5 Louisiana-Paclfic
CumtnlUab.
..... 7
37B.2
to profitability
until weD into 2002. petitors
have been taking
temporary
ANNUAL RATES
Put
Est'd
...
10
Put
The downtwn in the domestic economy. downtime to reduce inventory levels. Even
11Yn.
~_(p''''1
coupled with a decline in ronsumer coo- so, we belIeve WltU w1desd?-ead permanent
Sol..
4.0%
2.""
''Cash Flow"
O.S,,"
fldence, will likely result in a drastic drop- facl1lty closures occur,
SB pr1clng will
~~ 1.5"
Eamilgs
-'3.""- -17.5" 3.""
off in housing construction. 'IbIs would remain weak.
limiting the rompany's
Diviclends
16.0%
S~%
3.0"cause demand for LPXs bullding mate- bottom-line growth potential.
Book Value
1.""- -5.0'" -1.5"

3"

,...

Olh.'

.n

1.4,

"3.'"

HIE
H/IF

~""

L'";'~=~I\~

"'"

'''~

"'..

.. ......

'..~'"
Yn.

......
C.~

rials products

QUAR7ERLTSALESIS",)

weak

to remain

at least

AU but the most

speculative

sO~Jo

.""If

investors

Full
through mld-2oo2. Such a dro~lus
an should avoid these neutrally
ranked.
lIu.31 Jun.30 S.-;'ja 1*.31 Yoversupply of oriented strand bo
(OSB).
shares
at this t::iJne. Loulsiana-Padflc
1991 S48.3 623.2 606.3 519.3 1297.1 may result in further prlcln$ pressures for slock has sold off more than 50% since aw1991 600.1 768.5 797.4 7126 1878.6
a while. (LPX is the nation s leading pro- last report, due to further deterioration in
2OCIO 829.7 831.5 7027
ssa9 1932.8 ducer
of 058.) That suggests increasing
the company's markets. This trend will
2001 558.5 649.8 145
/425
m.7
share-net losses, ~cing
additional pres- likely continue In the romlng months as
2002 54D
IlIO
571
811
sure on LPX"s a ady stressed balance excess capa.ci~ and the soft domestic econEARlMGS PER SHARE A
CO!full
sheet. All told, we expect LPX to post omy will l1k.ey plague buUding materials
end., 1".31 Jun.30
Dac.31 You
share-net losses of $1.30 and $0.20 In 200\ volumes and prices. As such. we expect.
1991
d.23
.35 and 2002. respectlvely.
.08
.06
.44
eanlings comparisons will remain weak.
1991
.20
.31
209
.76
.7'
The company is taking downtiIoe
in lImItlng this issue's investJnent appeal.
2OCIO
.54
.31
d.39
d.16
.'1
Moreover, the stock's 3- to 5-year appred2001
d7B
d08
d2ll dUO its OSB plants. DurIng the last pricing
d15
2002
11.15 11.01
.04
d20 cycle, it appeared that demand for aSB atlon potential does not look wide enough
d.trJ
was gOIn, to rontlnue to rise through mid- 10 Justlfy Ihe risks.
llUARTElLT DNllOOS PAl)"
Co!Full
decade. eading many industry partidw.R. Pekuw/tz. Jr:
Oclober /2. 2001
111'.31 Jun.30 Se~-.;n Dec.31 Y.,
pants, including LPX. 10 add capacity. But,
CASH
POSITION
5oYurAv'1I
1197
.14
.14
.14
.sa Just as these new plants were coming on.14
CWNIII AaMt5 t:J Currwrt LJabnaa:
1m .14 .14 .14 .14
.56 )Jne in mid-2000. demand began to decline.
CMh & Equiv. t:J Clntllnt~:
1119
.14
.sa 1lUs ~d
17~
.14
.14
.14
intenst8ed
in recent
.14
.14
.14
.sa months as thehasdomestic
.14
Workng Capllal10 SaIIia;
Ul~
economy
contin.05
.05
'AID ...........
ON ....
]51);
"OIl. (... 1; Ql~l. {51)..............
..... .....
101dU .... J"...
C..... ,,{. ..... "............
C*
1994. Exclud85 nOlnlDltlg gains (losSeS
rgpor1 duo Iat& Oct
December. Stoct
divllends: 3%, '81'87.
S1ock'. riQ StablJtty
55
1J5, 28; lJ6, $1.09; '88, '1.43; '93 (1"'); '95 ~ Next divldend rneetilg abou1 Nov. 10lh.
Dtvilend renvesrnenI r:n .-vaebIB.
pnc::. Growth Plirslstencl
5
($2.07]; .... {I1.01~ ~7. (19~ .... {33k ....
Nov. " .. __
... ,.
(e)
;m.. __ .,..
~
o 2m1, 'AkJe I..ile PubisIlil~~.-rnd.
fldulllRllelilil i5. otIIineII flail ~
b*lIIIIIlO lZ niIIlIe MIl is p-oriSelI wIh:luI 'ftIQnlin 1ll8lltLUId.
THE PlIIUSI-I:R IS NJl RE
ORMY [RRORS OR CMSSIONStlEREW.
i!I.*i:IJ 1Ilr1llllsrile(s_,_~
...... Int.
pM
I
I
'.
: II:
II'
,

.I3M,

= ."

If ..,. tit tIp"DllUCeII.lISllIIL

;""=

...

l1li

'"''

s._.

...bovI

~"IIIJ,.-.s..-.1IIIi:

'"m.......

'"*'~

l1li _

...

l1li....

l1li

'.

-.cn.it

sma

l1li pIldm:l

"."
13"
."

MARCUS CORP. NYSEYcs


lWElJII[SS

High:
Law'

4 """"
'"""
3
Netl1I21SO
3 ..... .,..,

SAFIY
TECHNICAl.
_

HIIl'-2~
].b' 2 ~
J.b-2 ~

-. -

00000
0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 000
000
0 0 0 000

.,

,. '"''
21
v

::::.

12....
1986

1985
5.13
.6$
.32
JI6
Jll
2.68
5.
J
.76
U%

nlM
121'J1

r:e.

'.84
.76
Jl
.07

1.09

11.6

;~

.79
1.5%

1.3"

15.

1.04

.:r.,

.,.

Cllrrent Assets
Accts Payable
DlIbI. Due

Othe'

CUrrent lisb.

ANNUAL RATES
at cfwIgl (I*' ~J
Revenues
''Cash Flaw"
Eamilgs
Book Value

2.9

12.

18.5

1.....

"'"""'26J 2M

-12.7
35.8

28.7
162

202

....l12 -A!
70.5
59.'

81.8

--

--

10.4

11.1

27."
10.5

PUI

1n...
6.0%

7~%
.~%
10.0%
10.0%

DiYidends

Past
,Tn.
7.0%
5.0,,"

22.1
39.5

....

Est'd ... Ot

"5.""

8.""
10.-",
2.5"

NMF
5.5%

e.o,,"

210.
2D02

QUARTERl.YREVEMa 1101.1 A
"UI.PerNowPtr Feb.Per III)' Ptr
90.1
71.2
71.2 103.3
IOH
88.0
85.3
82.2
110.6
n.4 n.4 86.7
108.8
87.1
96.3
86.9
117.1
840
81.1
'10

FIscal

EARJINGS PER SHARE M

FIscal

l:

1191
1119

l:
1198
.119

2101
2D02

Ca~
endar

,.

.997

ug.Ptr Nov.Per Flb.Per IllY P.


.44
.23
.25
.10
.47
.19
.02
.09
.42
.17
.02
.10
.38
dOl
.13
d05
.50
.IZ
.15
.01
QUARTERLYDrroBIDS PAIl"
.17.31 Jun.30 S;.:3O Doc.31
.05
.05
.053
.053
.055
.055 .055 .055

.055
.055

1119

210.
(A'

F"",..

.055
.055

.055

.055

.055
.055
.055
.055
.055
onds ... Moy .....
to roc ""
.055

.. ..

15.3

",'

..

...

-',

",

"

..

IIll,,,l

.....

- -- - --

I.

......

-. ".

"

."".,.

FiKilI

T..,
335.8

3619
352.1
379.1

."

FilClll
T..,
1.02

.n

.71
.45

.65
filII

T..,
.21
.22
.22

:n.

188.0
23.2%

204.3
23.B%

15.1

11.6
13.3
39.5%

11.6
38.4%

65%
d9.3

,".

5".

1995 1~00

6.61

162
1.06

1.1"

21.0
24.5%

245.6
24.9%

18.3
16.5

20.4
20.7

39.1%
7.7%

38.9%
8.4%

d3.8
79.0

6.2%
dlO.3
".2

100.0

114.7
1.6%

124.9
1.7%

114.0

d13.3
101.7
193.9

7.7%

8.1"

10.1%
"%
19%

10.6'10
B.B"

9.5%

10.7"
'.K

lB%

7J%
17%

6J9
1.78
.93
23
284

10.26
201
1.04
10
3.63
9JB

8.52

14.7
.85

17.1
1.07
1.4%

1U

Jll
U%

1.3%

262J
29J%
25.1

278.0

25J%
23.6
24.1
40.0%
6.7%

303.4
29.5%

28.9
30J

m
39.7%

39.7%

10.5% 101%
d19.1
1128.6
127.1 166.1
251.3
m.3
8.4"
'.2%

dJO.7
116.4

214~

,.""

c.

10.48

11.03

d31.6

205.6
3025
1.4'-

16.7

3.31
11>6
29.'

1.09

1.67

1.9%

1.6%

3629

3521

319.1

24.8%

25.1%

22.6%
43.3
13.3
40.3%
3.5%
<M23

40.5%
6.4%

d327
264.3
313.6
5.4%

40.5
212
40.7%
6.0%
<M21
286.3
325.2

11.3%
9.3%

10.9%
8.4%

11.1%
9.1%

10.2%
B.1%

7.4'10
5.4"

18%

23%

16%

20%

27%

30%

17%

...

:n.

12

4.9"
6.5%
4.6"

3101
337.7
3.7%
3.9%

21%
47%

te5llllLIb"!llDl~iII~flli*d.dtdlri:

105 Cop' Spondi,g 1*'"


12.15 BIlCIIr.V11I1......
29.2>
9
A.... " PIE.do
Rilltift PIERala
AVI! Ann' Div'd Y111d
170 Rmnllu(SnIirI)A
2,f.~
44.0 D...,a~::-.)
11.0 NoII'rD11
35.'" Inccn. Ta RaIl
1f% NitProfllqil
d55.0 W...... Cop'lln.,
300
:155 Shr. III ImDI
45% R.1um on Toll! Cap'l
15% R_
.. Sh7.E.~

.......

-.....

U.I'
215
1.05
.2>
175
14.75

....

17.0

f."
f.",
"0

n.",

"'0

31.0

40.'"

ll%
dl5.0
3JO

~~:~\~)

''''
34%

RItlinId1D Con Eq
AI DlY'ds to Net Prof

C5

5.5X
7.'"

.."
24%

SUSINESS: The Marcus Corpc:nfIon operates hill8d-servE8


kxIges (37% at '01 tJtaI sales), hotels & resorts <29%), and rmriIt
them!s (34"'~ Lodging oper. klclude aboLt 184 B8)mor1 Wins ..
30 Ilnls and 1 Woodfield Suites kl L, WI, CO, OH, Bnd TX; hoIitI
& resort DPlI'". cortlan 6 awned and 5 managed properIiII i1 WI,
UN, MO, TX and CA.; and theirt8r oper. indude roughly 482

saaens
... 49 b::atiOllS ... WI, OH, Il, and MN. Sold 30 KFC franchise units 5r'01; 18 App.lebee~ unis 6195. Has about 7,300 empls ..
Ol'fJdi". control about BO" of votq pcIlIIIW and DlII'n 34% of B.
shares (8101 Proxy). Cha~n,
F'rl!Is. & CEO: Stephen H. Man:us.
Inc.: WI. Addr.: 250 EasI: WISCDIISi! Ave., SlIle 1100, MliwallUlt,
WI 53202. Tel: 414-005-1000.
lnWnet www.mmuscorp.lXlI1l.

Blockbuster movie hits fueled Marcus


fiscal first-quarter
results (year began
June 1st). Usually one of the busiest periods anyway, the swnrner season for the
company's theatre division exceeded last
year's strong results because of successful
hits like Planet of the Apes and ShreJc..For
the quarter, revenues and operating Income In this division (roughly 40% of the
total) Jwnped about 15% and 38%, respectlve1y, from last year, with about the same
number of screens and. theatre locations.
A stron.frt pipeline
of new movies
should
ve earnings
for the next
quarter. The highly anticipated openlng
of movies like Harry Potter and the Sorcerers Stone augur well for the company.
Also, since the industry has historically
perfonned relatively well during lean economic times, and the theatre offers a relatlve1y cheap entertalrunent altematlve for
consumers, we believe this unit will help
stablllze Marcus' bottom line in the current eCOnomicenvironment .
A lower tax rate should also bolster
the bottom line in fiscaJ 2002. Due to
the renovation of the Hotel Phillips In
Kansas City, Marcus will benefit from fed-

eral and state historic tax credits amount


ing to about SO.05 a share.
We are concerned
about the general
decline in travel. though. Marcus' hotel
and resorts group may be hurt as potential
customers stay home out of fear and for
economic reasons. Management indicated.
that some scheduled events have been can
ce1ed since September 11th, and we do not
foresee any material plckuf in the economy until the second half 0 fiscal 2002. At
Baymont, thO~h, we are not so concemed
since many 0 these lodges are located
near highways. and their mid-price range
may attract
more business travelers.
Nonetheless, lower profits from Mareus'
hotel and lodging wllts will partly offset
gains from the theatre unit for the year.
Marcus" untimely
shares offer little
investment
appeal. Although the stock
has retreated since our August report, It
still offers unexdUng appreciation poten.
tlal out to 2004-2006. And, while the
theatre division looks like a strong earnIngs driver, it remains highly dependent
on successful box-office hits, adding to the
stock's risk.
David Nakashian
November 23. 2001

~rm(""~
.22

Div'dl Ded'd pII' III

10.00

38.3
23.1

..2

.U

3J7

335.B
28.1%
329
30.'
40.0%
91%

~c. 0U6

3.74

18.7
1.07
1.5%

~.6

cYALlEUNEPlB
RlWllun pII' III A
Cub An'" pll'1h
&rnInQ1 pw th"

12.13
2."

172
.B9
1.2%

~.7
13.6
~.I

2001
2002
12.98
IUS
1'.IM
209
I.IM
!IS
.71
.15

11.10
211
1.03
12
3.63

.n
:n.

..........
"" ..,.
""'"
,<2

'" Tot RETURIrI1Mn

'"

1".

9."
1.62
.B2
.15
262
7JO

12

..

B.37
1.40
.70
.12
259

,.

t':1.....

114, 111: .... 501; ... , 181); Ul,


"""" ,bout ... 15~ of Fe,.. Moy,
Aug., NDV., Feb. per., 12 WIll!U; May per., 16
J. Next egs. rpt. due late .Ian. '0 talal does Nov. Oi'ls. prD" '96 ntPf1lS8Tlt avg. ems
nets.
13-weel1 psbisthereder.
(81 PrWmry not add dlleto roundlng.ICI Next div'd rM].
B andcomrnon
stDdl. lI.id payout.D'ld
re....
egs. thru. '91, then lIiukld. Excl nonftlClKri'lg
Iat8 Dee. Next ex d_ IiI18 Jan. Div'd pnt.
vesinenl: Plan av.ai (O) In m", Bdj:. for spils.
o mn. v.Iue line ~
~
1t$B'IflII. F~
IIIIIIl!riIllis Dtuftd ..
~
.....
III be '*'e .. is pvlIidelI ....
WIftWIIie5 III ~ tN.
ruE PlB..ISlR IS flJT RE
If ORNn AROAS OR (MSSlONS H[R[W. TllKpItiEUIn is 5RIy'" ~
~ ~-anIIIRrtiII, n.n..I \IIZ. II p.1
dllll)'lIt

Tal'gill Price Range


2004 2005 2006

15.7
10.e

. 2

30
25
20

as of 1I3OJlI1
Due In 5 VI'S l1ZO.0m .
IT late,.. $18.6 mil.
2.b)
(47% of Cop'O
LA..... , Uncapitalized Annual mnlals $1.4 mil
Pln.kIn U.bllIIy None
pfd Stock None
Common Stoct 29,224,216 Ihs.
(53% of Cop'O
Common 1111.:19,307,032; Class B shs.:
9,917,187 (asot 1011.11; Hotklrs of B stns. ~
cel't'e 10 YOBIsh.; hoUen of cmmon recel't'e one
vcWsh. Bnd 110% ofdlVi:lends Plij on eecf1 B sh.
IIARKET CAP: S400 milUDn (Small Capl
CURRENT POSmDN
1l3OIII.
3~

16.3
10.5

...

....

19.1
12.4

,,

loll

..

...... ,.
.....
PefC8nt

20.9
13.5

40

.~

reamrrn

..

CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Total DeIlt$J19.1 mi.
LT Debt $298.9 miD.
(Total i'lBesI. coverage:

Ca~Il.l
......
Receivables
,_
(A'll Cst)
Othe,

18.8
13.9

18.3

:>

idc:Mes

19
1.5
1455S
1990 1991
1992.1994
1988
1989
6.B7
6.50
7.44
B.14
7.00
623
.93
.99
1.08
.c
123
1.14
.42
.39
.45
.63
.39
.52
.09
.08
.09
.12
.07
.10
1.6$
1.33
1.58
.91
1.06
1.54
3.83
4.16
4.54
353
4.97
5.69
-g;1
5.
.11 30.
11.6
13.1
11.6
9~
9.'
Jl
.96
.60
.58
.n
1.6%
1.7%
2.1%
20%
1.4%
1.6%

"096
1987

5."
.71
.34
.06
1.50
2.95

,,,.,
31

24

"..

13.1
10.7

ntIJz

..

DJFM"MJJA

Institutional Decisions

12.2


"

l:~l
R....
""
2%

20
+45%
14
+10%
Insider Deciskms

.....

9.1

'.3
3.'

2.9

6.0. Clv. FblI" P sh


ReIIliPe Pm ShngI)

PROJECTlONS
Ann, Tutal

,..
"'. .,

'.3

LEGENDS

.ETA .15 (1.00_ MarkS)

13.851~oo24.7(~~~::ltl) RElA11VE
PHAOO. 1 34 OIY'
YlDD 1.6%

T:r

.. ~

...

IlI._b

III

1I---=~-.a

.. pllIduCL

8
75

C.... p.. ,.. .... n ... , .......


SIDell's PriCil Stabilly
Price Gruwth
Earnings Prwdict:Qilly

r.rwm.nc.

I '.

30
70
:

II:

I I ,

MODINE MFG. NDQ.1I0DI


SAFTY
l[CHNICAL

11.5 t
8.61

High:
Low:

3 Rlilld Il1JlDl
3 ... ,m",
2...., .,'""

lW.EUJIESS

IIRECEIIT
P~CE
14.4
7.8

LEGENDS
7.!1 Cull Fm-

18,9

11.8

g
23 26'IIRATI)
JPf
16 O(lroiIn
RELATlVE 1 05 lIIV'D
M.... : : 17.1)
14.1 Pf RAllO.
YlD 4.4%

30.3
17.5

31.3
23.8

40.5
23.8

29.8

22..

38.0
24.5

38.5
26.5

38.0
23.0

29.9
19.0

32.0
19.5

Target Price Range

2004 2005 2006

....

'00

sh

80

IobIUIl
PROJECTION.~_
Ann'I TDtII

BETA .15 O.llD

_
PriCI

GIIrI

'"

Reun

40
32

,I I

24
20
18

.......

12
8
8

.33
.0
.49
.48
.70
.96
4.14
4.5D 5.16
5.75
623
6.95
30." mil 29.84 29.15
.7
1.5
1D.l 10.4
':J.7
11.~ 15.2
.61
.69
.70
.61
.!6
1.13
3. "
2.8% 2.5"4 3.1% 3.111Ji 3.51
CAPITALSTRUCTURE.. oUi2MI1
TClIaIDebt $173.7mil. Due In 5 YIS $90.0 mil.
LTDRbt $158.8mil.
LTIntl:rest.$8.7ml.
(LHrte.esteamed:15.7x:talall1tBrestCCl'4l'.11.91:)
(24%ofCap'Q
P... lonLllbllltyNone
PM StocIi: None

Common Stock 32,952,000 shares.


(78% of CapQ
MARKET CAP:

sns

million (5m.l1I Cap)

CURRENTPOSrrlON

11t1

Ca~~

31.1

20.4

182.7
(FIFO) l~~j
As!Iets
429.6

Aa::I3 Payable
Debt DuB
Other
CurRInt Liab.

.80
1.55
29."
15..
.93
2.4%
570.8
14.6"
25.5
33.7
37.7'

.B8
8.50
29.5'
11..
1.03
1.9'
669.6
15.6'
28.1
43.1
41.0'
5.1"
5.~
6.4'
126.5
126.8
131.8
74.3 52.4
n.6
215.0 223.1 251.7
10.4% 13.2% 13.9%
12.4' 15.1' 17.1'

1.12
10.16

1.84
11.52

1.80
12.71

:JIl.>1

:JIl.J<

"'.J<

1z.ti 15.1
.13
1.,
1.8%
2.0"4
913.0 990.5
16.1)14 13.5%
34.5
39.6
68,.4
61.4
37.1' 38.1'
7.5'
6A
170.7

12.5
.78
2.6'
999.0
14.3%
41.5
63.8
34.8'
6.4'

170.3

196.1

621
87.8 85.2
308.3 349.4 385.7
19.1% 14.6" 14.011
222' 17.6' 16.5'

2.72
'414

3.08
15.35
"'.'"
llI.:>J
lJ..
13.3
.n .69
2. %
2.6110
1040.4 1111.4
15.3' 142'
41.8 442
n5 73.9
37.5' 37.4%
7.0'
6.7%
200.5
196.5
89.6 143.8
422..5 4532
14.~% 12.8%
17.211 16.3%

3.08
16..41
"''''
12.6

.n

3.3'1.
1139.3
13.0%
48.8
65.4
31.4%
5.7'
254.1

211.1
480.2
9.9%
13.6%

215
1.15
1.15 CIp'I~8
pII' III
16.99 1115
fUD BaakYalul,. ... D
"'.:>J .....
".110.......
g
15.8 ~~
~_
YgMft'"
1.03
..,,; .....
R-.
PIERHo
3.9%.s
Avg Ann1 DiY'dYiIid
HIGH
1100
1175 Saln ($nil) A
10.~' 12.""
U,", DDtraba
49.9
51.1J
40 DlplKidan(lnll)
47.6
40
10.0 Nt1ProIlISnll)
39.2' "'.5%
31.0" InconI.TuRa
4.5'
tfti
5.1" NltProI1M.
194.3
200
Wi Working t.,J'1 (Sml)
134.4
1%5
115 Long-TImlDlbt(lnll)
501.9
515
~ 91r.-Equity(Wi
8.0% 10%
1.5" RnmanTCl1IIC~'
9.5% 9.5% 11.0% RlturnanSlr.EOIitv

linin

US
24DO
,
14.0
...

1.'"
155D
11.5%
55.0
15.0
3Ill'%

U"
l50

100
NO
13.0%
15.0%

2000 1121/01
30.3

187.7
185.4
1~~:~ 1~:~

Receivables
Current

.~7
1.32
29.'"
13.3
.65
32"4
526.6
13.5"
26..9
26.7
35.4'

81.1

387.5
75.9
34.6
82.7

""""i"i5.5

193.2

84.9
9.5

408.1
78..5

14.9

90.0
183.4

ANNUAL RATES PIIst


Past Esfd ..... 00
ofdalgt(pel"!h) 1IY...
nn.
tD'M-'M
Sales
9.5% 5.5% ".5"
"Cash FIow"
10.0% 4.0%
3.5"

Eaml1l1s

10.5%

2.0%

Divijends
Bot*.Valu.

12.0%
10.0%

12.0%
10.0%

~
B:'

6.0"
4.5"
3.5"

Q1JARTBlLY SALES (I oI.J A


unP ... SeD.P.r Dec.Per 1IIar.31

"'=
~

1198 213.1 273.0 284.3 281.0 1111.4


1199 2B3.9 286.7 2B3.5 265.2 1139.3

2100 2B8.'

269.8 252.3

258.8 11165.4

21101
21102

280.6 If5
Z75
271.4 11110
ZIIl
ZIIl
ZI5
3lIO
1175
EARNINGS PER SNARE A
~
8:='.
un.Per Sep.Pe. Dee.Per Ma .31 f_
.67
.63
.58
.58
246
1199
.65
.51
.55
.49
22lJ
2100
.61
.65
.21
.15
1.62
2001
.31
.35
.~
.3t
US
21102
.45
.45
.45
AS
UD

l.

I'::'

tal-

QUARTERLYDIVIlEJl)S PAI)c

endar lIar",1
1!l97 .17
1.
.19
1199 .21
2IIOlI
.23
2001 .25

Jun.
.19
.21
.23
.25
.25

SID.3D
.19
.21
.23
.25
.25

Full

Dec.31 Yur
.19
.74
.21
.82
.23
.90
.25
.98

(AI FIQ:I)'IS" ends M. 31st of h IoIawilg


(1*
): '90, 78; '91. 9; "92, (46I; '93, 3.
.".
fwa.d eamilgl n!port due mil:l-Ocbb&r.
IS) Pnmary.-rlllllS
thrDugh iscaJ 1996,
fC) Next di'ti:lend meeW1g about Nov. 121h.
ditiMI th ... ftBr. ExckJdes nonnElI"I1ng gaits (;Oes ex about Nov. 29th. DiY'.p.,ment: dates:
Co 2001. YMJe !..me ~
lilt. AI rigtU n5IJ'l'IlI. fKUI IlIIIIIIiII is atlIined I~ ~
II*WlIIIo bl'

lit..,., r~

THE PUBUSHER IS ICll RESPQNSIIlL'tORAN'i

IInIIII ~

[RRORS OR OMISSIONSH(llE
inlllJ' plMd.lIacn: .. DIm

Tlli5patllicaDtii
11' .....

*it:lJb

frsl: W8IIkof M8rd1. June, Sept.. December.


Com~ny's FlRI.ncaJ StrM1gth
(D) Includes inlangilles. In fisc:812000: $62.3
Sk!cli:'s Pnc. stablltly
tr*ln, $2.11/sh.e.
PrlceGrvwth PMshtIinc.
(E) In milOns, .dju5l8d b" spll.
_E.mlnp PJddI,biIt,
......
MI is fI1Md!id .....
......-s l1li ~ U1lL

irurnIl use. jqoprt

I '.
: I I.

subxlit8'li_._~

gnnIiIg u~...,.

..nmII ~~...a

IIIpKIdIIC:L

Sot

75
25
70
I I

I~cr63.171~m 17.6(~:=;IiJ)WJ%0.95 ~

OM GROUP. INC. NYSE.oMG

.s.

3 LDIeI'edllM1
3 ....".,

1IlInJNf.SS

SAmY

High:
low:

3 _~'V1"

.... I."
."

- _.

....
,_
....:..~ ..

'"''

23302

22795

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

Ltabillty

'00

Receivables

(UFO)

Cunenl Assets
AD::ts Payable

o... eue

""""

Current Liab.
ANNUAL RATES

d_(PW~1
Dividends
Book Value

ea

..

..
:10

...r--

15

I""'il'

Percent

71 hal'll.
85
23587

1988 1989

..
..
..

..
..

..
..

S14.0miIL

CURRENT POSrrlON
(lIIlL)
0."' ......

''Cash FJow"
Earnings

Target Price Range


200. 2005 2006

30
25

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

~ OOn.

MARKET CAP: $15 biliOft (....HI Cap)

Sales

0.9%

66.7
46.3

00

..
..
..
..

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1990

1991 1992

..
..

..
..
..
..
..

..

.,

..

$13.5 mil.

........

..tOT. RET\1R11111101

7.'

Lusn, UneaptlallDd None

~nIPry

57.0
33.6

'25

~lf_Dfaesf~

i11J9.
Pfd Stock None

425
26.5

R"m

1985 1986 1987

Pension

Ml.O
25.0

a.DI"'CI~F""p"
kellllwe PrEe 5nllgII

.. ...., ...... ...

85

..

42.1
25.0

~.2s:~12t9li

Inskfer Decisian.
J F It J J
o 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0
o 2 0 0 0 o 000
o 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
InstitutiDnal Decisions

..

28.8
21.7

Ann'l lobi

11. \+75%\
7. +20%

..
..
..
..
..

22.3
14.5

LEGE.NDS

TECHNICAL
IITA .aa (1.l1O.~
2_
PROJECT1ONS

16.5
12.5

--

..

--

..
..

..
--

..
..
..
..
..

..
..

9.51 13.46 19.38 20.84 22.08


1.33
1.68
2.13
2.46
2.10
.95
1.09
1.35
1.56
1.78
..
.19
.24
.29
.32
.41
1.0$
1.68
1.51
1.56
6.66
7.56 8.67 9.95 13.65
18.76 18.67 1a.OJ 16.62 'l2..D7
..
1~9
13.5 '6>
"..

.85
.90
1.01 1.08

1.3\
1.3% 1.1'
1.0%

..

..

.
.
..

.
..
..
.
..

.
..
..
.
.
..
..
.
..

179.5
19.4%
9.'
15.4
33.5"
8.6'
".1
X1.6
12'.9

~1.3
18.3'
lQl
20.7
332"
8.31
82.1
45.4
141.2

361.0 388.0
16.0" 17.3%
13.1 15.'
25.9 30.1
32.7" 32,3\
7.2% 7.7\
146.9 113.9
89.8 109.3
16'-'
185J

1111

11.91

11.41

11.51

..

..

1~3\

14.1\

16.1\

16.2\

-487.3
18.8%
212
38.4
33.71
7.9'
22'.1
170..3
3012
9.6%
12.81

89.-4
12.5.9

~
30.4
10.1

10
7.'

I--

VALUE I.INPIJB. ~c.


3722 .... ID 129.10 Sall1p1fM
lUSO
4.64
US
1.15 CuhFlow"'pII'M
lt05
2.95
130
3." Emiagl pIf III It
<1
.44
.52
.51 DiY'dlDld'dperlhl!l
2.31
J.15
5.25 Cap'ISpeIldinllpll'M
LOO
21.22 210a
.25.10BoolYllulll*'1h C
32.10
"[J.n ~
l3.85
ztoa
.2UGICcnrnll1
Istg
".2
15.3
14.' ~~
1-_ A.. k.'rl'lERdo
11.0
.95
.87
.97
- ~
RtIIttY. PIERdo
1.05
1.0% 1.1% 1.0\.-li
Ayg Ann' Div'd Y"1IId
.n

21.91
3.11
2.05
.36
3.88
11.03

521.2
21.6%
25..
48.4
32.2%
9.31
300.6
310.0
'04.1
7.9%
12.0%

21.31
3..a
2.30
.40
2.95
18.88

...

501.0
887.7 2200 J70a SIIIa(..,.)
2U"
20.01 12.3 11.0% lo-ai-lI_1n
26~
39J
90.0
141 0_0 .. (""I)
55.8
7U
.5.0
115 Ne1PrDfi1IWl
30.5" 2i51
210% 21."" 1ntonI. Ta RIll
11.0'
8.1'
1'"
3.1" Ne1Prollllwgin
In.l
.....
..,
110 WOIIdnOCop' (""I)
334.9 551.1
I5D 1.250 Long.TermDIbt (Wl
449.2 506.1
100
130 SI":~
7.8% 8.6% t.'"
I'" RIUnOllTotaICIp'l
1~"14.1\ ".0% 15.5% R...........
E.....

tlnli'

5.200
11.0%
100
,.5
.210%
11%
SOlI
1250
10SO
'""'

11.5%

OXFORD INDS. NYSE-OXII

3 LIIRlfd nnWl
3 NewIn.1BO
3 _ .. nII.,

lW.EUNESS
SAFETY

TECHNICAL
,n
2_

ITA

(lIID-MlIUI)

High:
Low:

High 70 (,,:~DO%\
lJiir
45
1+95%1
Inskter Decision ..
DJF."MJJA
.. ..,.
0 0 0 0 0 0
o,lIt-. 000001042
.. 5111 0 0 1 0 0 1

.Q2..

:::'1

16

1QJItt
12

38~~ 3~

"Sales
.......

111

"Cash Flow"
Eamklgs
Dividends
BcDI Valul

"A

REL\1M
PfRAOO.

IIed;II'

25.4
15.0

34.'
21,9

22.0
18.0

38.8
23.0

24.4

,4.4

37.7

22.5

29.8
19.0

068

IlIV'O
lID

22.'
13.8

24.1
15.3

3.6/IC0
Target Price Ranv20M 2005 2006

..

100

r... p 5h
Prte Slr~g11

Ire, i'IIIcIa's

.0

1'!ICe55.i:1r1

,,,

"."
20%

"

'III

'," I."

48
40
32

,.

2.
20
16

, I

.:T
0 0 0 I'"
".0 .. 2

'., -o!l :

ZQJItl Percent
22 ahll,...

S.D
6.0

~~

3.0

trtl_d

12

'1,",;'7 .'

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991


50.36 41.11 50.23 5921 51.30 59.42 57.13
1;12
1.30
1.63
1.69
d.1D
1.81
1.57
.62
.64
.93
.95
d.93
.99
.82
.50
~
~
M
.00
.~
~
~
~

n
~
~
.13
11.10 11.51 11.34 10.40 10.89 11.19 11.43
1.'"
11..
7
9.:
20.0 15.'
161
..
10.'
14.
14
1.62
1.06
HI
.
.32
1.07
.69
3.31
3.1% 3.1'
3.8% 4.7% 4.2% 5.8"
505.9
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE u of BIJ,IV'
Tatal DtIb1$.7 mil
Due k15 lIS $.7 mil..
3.6%
LTOebl $.4 mil.
LTInteIBlS.1mill
6.2
Ind. $.4 mil capitalized leases.
5.5
(IT i1teresteamed: 10.9ll;"tal ilhnlsl
38.1"
COVer.illgll: B.b)
1.1"
97.4
27.3
Pension L1lbility None
1011
PM stock None
51%
Common stock 7,510,558 shs.
(99% of Cap'ij
5.5'
MARKET CAP: $175 million (Smlll Clp)
1.1"

ANNUAl RATES

27.1

18.4
6.9

PROJEC11ONS
Ann'IT'"
Price Gain
Rnn

.. ..,.

13.0
6.5

Trli
2336'
Ipf 121
IIRAOO
( fr'll"I.1\
ltJl

LEGE:.NDS
I.D I "CIS!

~:~
!iIIlJded

Institutional Decl.lons

I!RECOO
PRICE

....

"

.............
.....

'I.T01. RE'IlJRN 1'"


t
3
5

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997


59..
65.96
75.56
75.4e 80.09
7231
245
211
1.86
3.27
W
3."
1.70
1.22
.86
215
223
U2
.63
.76
.80
.80
.69
.55
1.09
.62
1.10
.86
.93
1218
14.65 16.12
13.28 14.79 1525
.7
1<,
,O~
9.2
31.6
"'.4
10.'
1.98
.73
.11
.64
.53
1.37
45% 3.9'
3.2%
U% 2>% 3.1'
7032
624.6 657.0 664.4
527.7 572.9
5.4%
6.5%
4.5%
6.7%
5.8%
3.5"
9.1
6.5
7.0
6.3
'.9
7.'
19.6
4.5
191
10.6
125
14.'
39.7,. 40.5% 40.0" 40.0% 39.0%
39.0"
2.8%
.7%
1.6'4
26%
2.4'
3.1"
137.3 150.7
1091 1416
1011 103.5
41.8
45.1
47.0
17.8
1>4
227
141.5
129.0
115J
127.7 1326
1081
1O1ll 11.6'
14.1% 6.B% 3.6% 11.6%
8.0%
3.8% 13.9%
11.6' 12.8% 15.0%
NMF
8.5%
10.4'
7.3'
B.1'
3.1'
37% 37%
61%
36%
31%

.,

yr.
yr.
yr.

33.8
-88
50.8

8
24.2
64.2

VAUlEUNEPIJIl
~C.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
87.78 108.73 109.73 109.71 .1.70 51111par It! A
,U5 -euh ~
par III
3.71
3.32
U5
4.29
1.1;5 E.1ing1 par sh II
205
3.11
3.02
275
,14 DWdl Ded'dpar III c
.84
.M
.92
.84
.59
1.00
.n
... Clp'l_e
...
.69
24.40
18.11 19.46 21.43 2281
7.41
. 2
7.
orIIllOll
I
II
11.6
9.0
6.9
91
A'1IAnn' PIE.do
RIIdin PIERdo
.60
.51
.46
.52
4.0%
2.9'4
Avg Ann' Ih'd YlIId
4.6"
2.5"
T14.5
862.4 839.5
812.5
6.7%
6.1% 4.8"
6.6%
9.4
9.3
a9
'.1
24.6
23.4
15.4
26.4
39.0% 39.0% 38.0% 38.0%
31%
1.9%
3.1% 28%
169.5
130.3
154.7 1630
41.4
.4
40.5
40.7
159.8
168.9
154.4 164.3
9.8%
12.8% 142% 12.1%
15% R.un on Total Cap'
1", R.... on S1v. E.~
9.11
15.4%
14.3%
17.1'
101, RIIIinId to Can Eq
11.0% 12.6% 10.3% 5.4%
41%
21l%
26%
29%

a.,

...

141JD

u.,

~40
.N
f.1D
33...

...

115
1.4l'

.to
33.0
3U"

1'"
""
HR

2>D
.,Oll
f3.0ll
10.55

""

PAll CORP. NYSE-pIJ.


SAFElY

4 '--s'=ll91"J1
2 ..... mJ.01

TECHNICAL

3 _11_

TWrullESS

IETA

...
-... "'.. ..... .....,"",

'.

126

'08

.'

'20
'04 .urn

Annuall1!ntals

1823
51.6

$1 1. 1 mil

488.0

141.7
337.8

326.2
65.1
734.4

70.7
753.2

82.3
339.2

192.5

...,

67.7
82.7

..J..lli
331.7

.......
~'"

Put Est"dS'01
'at
"Tn.
'Tn.
7.""
8.""
5.5%
-0.5%
9.""
.".
... %
13.5%
9.0%
8.""
BcdtValue
1.5%
5.0%
8.5"
Fo-I
F
llUAR19LYSlliS 11111.)'
y-,
Fhcal
Ck:t.fI;r JIII..Plr "Pr,Per JulPer
y-,
1.
237.' 259.0 289.2 301.1 10B7.3
1999 249.9 278.3 299.9 319.0 1147.1
267.1 294.7 318.0 .... 3 1224.1
2001 278.2 304.7 321.1 331.4
'235.4
285
Z7G
305
~ 1200
FiKilI
FUI
EARN!HCSPER SHAREA. e
y-,
OrtPtr hn.hr
Apr.Per JuIPer
y..,
1.
.14
.18
.28
.32
.92
1999
.11
.13
d.23
.40
.41
.20
.27
.34
.'57
1.19
lllO1
.21
.24
.30
.31
1.06
lOG,
.3,
3D
.411
1.0

.~'"

....

--

.'

'.'

~199.

115.6

1116.06

25'
1.53
U~

23.5
1.39
1.51

685.1

6672

24.7'*

24.81

34.'
902
28'~
13.21

352
962
21.3%
14.0%

22J~

192.5

59.0
545.6
15.3"
16.5'
11.0"

24.5

331

1995 1996
6.08
7.19
8.35
1.18
U1
1.67
!8
1.04
121
.36
.42
.41
.64
.58
.n
5.09
5.70
6.37
I115.J<114.43 11'.!IIl
20.1
20.7
'9.1
1.32
1.211 1.30
2.0~
~1~
1~~
7oo~
822.9 960.'
25.3~ 25.8~ 26'~
36.8
41.7
53.!
!IIl.9 119.2
136~
26.8% 28.9% 300~
14.1'
213.6

14.5'

231.1
66.8

54.1

54~9
11.4%

587.2
15.6%

11.7'

16.8%

651.8
16.8%
18.3"

11.1"

10.0'11.

11.3"

341

'"
32

- - "
20
,.
12
10

....

.'
1992
1993
5.93
5.92
1.08
1.13
.TT
.83
.26
.29
.49
J4
'.n '.66

- --

- -I

401

381

=== '"'"'"

2001
2002
1997
1998 1999 2000
8.34
9J<
10.09
9.15
8.66
923
152
1.71
1.49
1.10
1.43
J<
1.18
1.05
1.03
~2
.1
1.06
.66
.66
.72
.54
.56
.60
J4
.15
.70
.66
5/
.64
6.47
6.11
5.88
6.18
6.29
1.10
m.40
125.33 ""1
1ZJ."
1ll."
23.7
23.1
5<7 18.1
23.'
1.37
1.18
1.24
1.20
3.00
3.1% 3.1%
Ul'
L6~
~8~

'22."

10620
213~

1087.3

62.8
131.1

64.8
114.8
29.1~
10.6'

64~
51.5
1~6\

305.6

208.4

'85.9

315.5

62.1

111.5
765.6
13.4%
j5.01
7.6%

116.8

223.9

730.7

161.3
15.21

laO%

14.4%

12.3'

251.0
48.7
732.3
18.01

824.8
15.01

:S.9I

15.9"

11.8"

62%
611

36~

20.8%

491

1147,1
11.61

."
6.41

'.0lI
,IE
NIE

252~
643

2 .. %
... 0

118.0

130

19.31
8.11.

55~

21.5~
9.6%

4652
359.1

no.o

11.2'11.
15.3"
4.7'11.

71~

I)

-136
-102

242
64.1

lie.

e VAlUE lINE PIB

SII PWM

... ,

A-

'Co"" flow" "" ""


EarninsJs fill' Ih
Dlv'da Dlcl'd ..

III

e-

CIp'1 SpondIng "" ""


Book VIIue pw"

fl.

I \;onmUII 5ftl OU1S1'g II


Avg Ann' Pre
Rilltivi PIE Rdo
AVI! Ann' DiY'd Y'1IkI

SaIu(lniQ'

1235.4

26.6\

63.'

-3

,,'" 1000000li.....

1224.1

148.6
222~
12.0'

..........
.......

~ TOT. RETURIiI lMn

_<"".,

Not Prolll$nollli
Income 1u RaIl
2f.'"
10.1" N"ProIlMqIn

~
114-46
'UO
US
1.10

......

if'
120.80

lO.

U.
3.2%
f55ll

,3.0"
7

'10

22.'"

,.. _.Cop,(""ml '13"


"":'~':~I '"

270
. (
105 Shr.
'2.5% Rnam CII TDlII Cap'
11.5" R_ OIl $/V. E_
RII1Iinedkl Com Eq
AI Dtv'ds III Nit Prof

~'"

""

300

"00

14.5%
17.(

....'""

BUSIN!SS:
Pal CorporaIiNl & the IBadlI" in tile fields of filtal:ion,
separation,
and pLli1i:atixl.
Hu lwo main btDiJessBs: t.
SCi8I!alS (ldJdes Blood 19% cI '01 ....
BiophallTl~
28%); and Industrial (General
28%, AIrnIpaC8
13", Mi:roelilctmni:l
12%). Map- manut.ildumg
pIIInb .., ... Flama, PII8'kl
REO. bland.
Japan, end 1he UniMI Kingdom. 0v1nees marUIs

~
for 53% of '01 sales; R&O, 4.5". "01 depreciati:JM rata:
7.MI.. Has 8,750 employees
and ebout 8,760 shareflotjr;p
rJ rec0111. 0Iil::l!Is and di'ecDs
own 3.5" 01 aJrm1OI'I; T.RDwlI Pri:e,
1.9" (11.00 proxy). Chaiman
& CEO: En:: KrasnaI'; V.P., Pres.:
JIftI'I'IY HaywMl-Swry. lnc.: NY. Addr.: 2200 NOftlllilm Bld., EilSt
HIs, Hew Vert 11548. Tel.: 518-484-5400.1n&net:
www.pallXll'l1.

We look for Pall's fiscal 2002 share net


to be Oat with 2001. (Fiscal years end
July 31st.) The first half wtU likely present negatJve quarterly bottom-llne compartsons due to a delayed recovery In the
microelectronics and industrial segments
(13% and 53%, respectively, of 2001's
sales). On the posJUveside, we tentatively
expect C'WTency-translationnegatives to be
less adverse this year. (pall receives 53%
of its revenue from foreign sources.) AddJ-

hospitals to blood centers, which caught


Pall's sales force off guard.
With these

......

.....

lllOl

60
50

problems behind It (other than CWTellCY


uncertainties),
Pall
should be able to
resume a more stable sales and earnings
growth path. starting later this year. The
company has a comprehensive array of
diverse flltratlon businesses, which have
generally k~ results stable.
Investors
:ven"t been particularly
attracted
to this untimely
stock. This
Is probably becau.se Pall is relying more on
tlonalJy. by the seamd half, the beneftdal
impact of higher milltary aerospace spend- the large, heavily regulated. and slow-to~
should aid Pall's aerospace filtration pay municipal woater industry. Moreover.
e5 (13%). The IndUStrial and electronics
when compared to its flashier peer Miloperat:l.ons should also be on more saUd lipore (which Is much heavily weighted
footing. Meanwhile, blood fllt.ratlon profits toward the higher-margin. but higher-risk,
will likely experience a slow, but steady, semiconductor and phannaceutlcal marclimb as leukoreducUml (ftItering while kets), PaU looks unattractive. Still, an Inblood cells) becomes more prevalent.
creased emphasis on the security of the
Indeed. for most of its operatinJ
his- country"s tap water sources should expedUe the signing of water filtration contoCow
but steady" has. been aU's
Full
k. Since 1996. however. annual- tracts and. hence. the payment of fees.
y.., haJ
!zed share eamlngs dipped and then be- Income-oriented
investors may be at.56 came erratic. TIlls was due to cunency tracted
to this good-<Juallty stock, as
.62 translation losses, costs associated with the dividend
payout should continue
making operations more efficient, and. the to increase through 2004-2006.
.66
wlforeseen and rapid shift in demand from Jeremy J. Butler
November 23. 2f)(}]

.....

11t7
1.
1999

38~

79U

176.8

43f.7

102"

209'
58.8

68.4

147.0

ANNUAL RATES
d.... (pdl
SaleS
''Cash F\ow"
Eamilgs
D1videnas

CoJ.

1Ul

20'.5
3.."'7.1

203.0

205.9

~~abl8
00 ..
Cutntnlliab.

-.....
-

15.11

...

137.2

'.

2..

I:nidHI

Invenmry (FIFO)
00 ..
Cumlnt Aaots

Target Price Range


2004 2005 2006

26.3
17.5

. ...

..

PId Stock None


Common Stock 123.925,129 shs. (66% of ",",'0
as Dt&'ilf1
IlIARKET CAP: S2.7 bilion (Mid Cap.)
CURRENT PQSITDN
2... 712M1,

.....
"'":'~

25.0
17.1

1.0
". I
4.0~

P.n::ent

",."

.'. ..

.. , ~

' ' .13

Uncapltl.lind

26.2
15.8

, ,

I"

.'

1985 1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
4.87
5.62
2.55
3.01
3.48
3M
'.30
.1
.49
.59
.65
.75
.so .96
J2
.44
.48
.57
.69
.38
J4
.08
.11
.13
.16
.19
2t
.09
.40
.35
.1
.54
.7
.50
J2
3Jl
4.18
1.60
~oo
<41
~88
323
110.48 110.81 11.
5. 115."
22.3
18.3
19.7
20.0
22..
18.'
20.'
1.211
1.53
1.51
1~
1.71
1.39
U6
1.71
1~~
1.31
1.1~ 12~
1.41
1.6%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE all of 71ZM11
657.0
Tatal DlibC $MUm
. D\IIIIn 5 Y,. $82.7 m"
23~~
LT Debt $359. 1 mi.
LT IIMrast $27.8 mil.
31.9
tndudes $14.5 rniJion capilalimd eases
79.9
(Totall1taresl: c:overaQl!l: 8.7;1)
(3'% of ",",'0 31.0~
Pfiliion UablDty None
1U~
LIIISB,

26.6
19.4

'

1m.,

115158

.'

InstitutionalDKllllona

I~l

26.1
19.5

11111.-1111

, ,

..

DJFIAIJJA
100
0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
000
0 0 0 220
020
100 3 2 0

'38

29.4
19.6

80

,~ssbr

idaIIrs"

7%

139

13.6

-3

"-.;:

lnalder Deci5mna

tlllIl

27.9
, .4

;<'0.3

5"mgIl

:::~=
1=
'fJ:;,""

Ann'l Talal

+15%

21.6
15.6

15.0 l Cnll F.... P ~

...... .........
1::""11 "
25

24.1
16.5

11.3

i.k,..:2;;mV9~

2001-46 PROJEt11O~_

l..

.7

LEGENDS

(I'oo. MlIUI)

.ID

20.9

'~5

High:
lcw:

22.161~oo23.1 (~::iill) W~1.25~ 3.2%

/FCEHT
I'flICE

...

llUARTERL'DMlEHDSPAIl"
IIlr.31
.14
.155

.16
.165
.17

Jun.3D StP.30

.14

Dec.:31

.14

.14

.155
.155
.16
.16
.165
.165
.17
.17
about J,~31.

l~B BaIIC
.- I!I1IIIiIgs
_."'" II1II:11997; dillied

...

.155
.16
.165
.17
"

1h8nI1ltW. Exdudes nomcumg


P"~baes):
'88, 12j; W, (7j); 'V2, 2; '93, (1 ); '94, (U);

.~.
YJUo Li!e ~~
THEPUBI.JSlJ1 IS ICITR[
InIlIIlIlll'lll

alt.., ......

IT'

11;l"9:J,5O;1;

~.,

(54<1'..., ..... ,..

n1por1 due
February. {C Next divdend
rneetiIg mid..Jan. Goel lUl-dimend tate .Illn.
Appnmrnate dPii:l8nd payment dn.s: .bout

'~h of -..y, May, .......... """"''''''.

lI()iiderw;l

rem&5~"wrt

...us'"

~
r~...mQI
D lib.... '-'
III ~ 1'llIiItR.", i5 plIt'ided .-..
E ORANY[RRORSOROMISSlONSHER1~.~is*i::llylDr~-'_=II.tiII;irunIllI!Ie..
..

Rlr5lllldm."IW............

~b....

'..

plan lIYIilabill. (Dlln

1IIIDns, 1Id)lslecl far slID spis.

..~.

RI7Inlie1

rI"l OpM
UN!.

ser..u.

C<an,anya

F",_,

.......

stock'. Price Stability


Price GrowIJI Pel"llstena
Eamlnp
p..-u.bIlttJ

"

7S
20
40
:11:

II',

PEPSIAMERICAS INC.I NYSEPAS


3 NrwllnllllD
3 N!'I'5115a'J11
3 .....,.,..,

TIiIEUJlESS
SAmY

TECHNICAL
BED.

.so

..

P.OJE~N~.

2......

27.0
High:
29.6
11.0
low:
17.0
I.GENDS
9.0 I -Ca5tJ r.... p IJ'II
tdi 01196
10.0 I ~CI.r_ p!lh

(1JIO Martet)

';:. i**s

-.

fOOOOQOOO

InstitutiDnal

.., .=-

",

52
64921

"

2QZ.t

"

T1

:~

4.

P.rcerrt

43
89.98

00642

17.0
12.8

18.0
14.8

23.4

1.lh'

ca

_
J.l"lLJ

114.5

285.1

2<13.0

Curren1 Assets

......

538.0

164.0
58.8
477.0
198.3
513.3

112.1

Acc:tsP8yabie

11122

OebtDue
Othe<
Cumtn1Uab.

373.3
173.6
739.1

ANNUAl. RATES
of_~(~~'

Rewnues

''Cash Raw"
EBmi"lgs
Drvidends

212.2
181.2

59.6

539.i
251.9
244.8
149.&

....!ill:

646.3

887.0

Post

"n.

.........

Est'd"l8-"OU

7.5"
11.5"

-9.0%
7.0%
-12.0"
-20.0%

14.0%
-17.otCi

5.s" 21.0"
Il'JARTBlLYREVEMIfS II".)'
FilII
3.'"

Book Value

CoJ.

Pu1
lOTn.
-6.5%
-5.0%
-9.5%
-20.0%

...,

>12

Receivables
'_(F'FO)
OIhe'

1"P'r JIIn.Per SeD.Per Dee.Per


352.0 406.9 475.0 399.1
370.3 505.2 680.5 582.2
2000 548.9 6826 655.2 640.9
2Ml 705.~ 856.8 847.1 74D.7
2002 725
070
IIIJ
755
EARNINGS PER SHARE II.
CoJ.
lIar.Per Jun.P.r SID.Per Det.Pet
1998
.06
.26
.11
.16
1!199
.19
.10
.19
.1'
ZOOO
.'n
.22
.21
.10
2001
.In
.21
.01
.23
2002
.08
.24
.24
.14
QUARTERl.Y
DIVIlENDSPAIl"
Co,
II11J1 JudO Slp.30 DIc:.31
1997
. 11
.115
.115
.11
1191
.05
.05
.05
.05
.01
1!199
.05
.01
.01

encll'

1191
1991

....,
....,

2000
2001

...
.04

..

.-

..

..

..

.-

y-

1635.0
2138.2
2527.6
31511
32JIJ
Full

y.61
.58

.60
.10
.70
Full

y-

....
.20

.08
.04

r8rget Price Rlmge

17.0

12.3

2004

'11'

.1'

--

895.9
461.9
9.3%

2006
40

.'

'

"

1992
1993
1994 1995
22.30 23.62 25.31
28m
1.73
1.89
209
2.30
.86
1.15
.99
1.26
1';
.33
.29
.37
.OJ
1.66
1>1
,.83
4.41
51';
5,97
1",.w
JU7.11 "7."
153
".U
'~.I
~7
.07
.92
1.02
2.0,
1.91,
1'%
2."
2308.0 2529.7 2650.0 2946.5
15.4\ 15.8% 16.0" 15.3'
935
955
106.3
90.'
92.1 106.4
121.9 133.5
40,2';
42.7\ 40.911 41.4\
4.2'
3~'
'.R
1M3
224.6
2105
253.5
79U
749.3
723.'
'281
~7M
517.0
552.6 627J

24

20

"

1996
30.33
2'9
Ul
.~1
1.48
6.26

12

....

_~o~ 15.48
1.36
.46

.,

16.19
1.39
.61

10

.63
1.58
3.23
3.05
l'UU.'" 1Dl.1N
1. 1
33.5
NMF
1.13
NMF
1.74
1.0\
1.7% 1.B%

,.""

....
.....

10.9%

11.9"

19.2'

20n

ZZ11

13.5\

14.6"

15A"

29'

29,

15.37
1.42
.58
.06
1.19
1.21
'1".1
29.u
1.65
.5'4

......
...

"" 10'[ RET1JRIrI .,

16.24
1.61
.60

...

'06
9.32

2001 2002
10.10 10.70
1.15
too
.10
.70
.04
.04
.40
-40
10.15 10.10
1
51.

29.3

-5.<

-33.0

106
26.3
55.1

lie.

I ~VALUEUNEP\I1l
R...,va pII' III
CuII Flow" P'"''
EImit;s pII' III A
DlY'dl o.d'c1 per III
Cop'lSpoIl... , ... III
Book YaIuIIW lit C

2110
!70

Us
.M

.45

1110

....:.:'" ::,-

......
... 0_'
_"no_'

~""

10.9\

lII'ImlOIl:iQUUtsrIl
U
.55.",
21.4
21.
A.. All.' P",'010
1.42
1.15
-.,; RIIIdiYt PIERdo
Ayg Ann' liv'd YIIId
All
.3'
3111.3 1557.5 163M 2138.2 2527.6 3150
UJO RI'fIII\tII~
3550
11.5%
15.5\ 17.3% 171'
15.1' 16.3\ lU"
1U"
115.8
89.5
126.6
166.4
20>
UO
nJ
13U
41.4
625
110 Nd Prolt IInt9II
110
70.' 64.7 11.,
42.5\ 44.9' 45.8\
221%
45.IlI
48.01' 41.0lI <lOll ~Turtat.
3.4'
1411 Nd Prott llorgln
'.5'4 3.010 3.(1\
33'
1""
329.0
23<.6 195.9 11201.1 6410.0
175 ...... , top, Ilnl)
370
1010
11175 Long.T ... Dobt(1noII)
9375
604.7 603.6 809.0 060.1
lI.
1150 SI".-Equlty 1!noII
642.2 306.4 326.' 11421 1449.5
1545
mo
,'%
11.5%
7.6%
5.5%
lOll RiUn on lObI c.p,
7.511
111"
51'
'511
._
... 5hr.E~
5.n
6.21
21.31 21."
15.5" 19.1"
I.""
15.0".5'4 130'4
5.511 l51l RItaiMd to Can Ell
llll
5.4"
5.5"
15.'"
AI DlY'dllo Net Praf
29'4
12'
3"
6'
(fCllmelly Whlrnan Corp.) manu
U.S.; SdlwtJppel i'1 Europll) hough iams8 l!IrTangmen1s.Serves

" .. 1'"''"

30'

32

I' ''''11'11

3".

3. "
202.5

2005

- -- - --

5".

.".,.., 13'
58'

ZOOO

16.4
10.4

1" .

17.4'''

1991

12.2

"

'"''
"'.,

MARKET CAP: $2.0 blUion (Mid Cap)

25.4

,11,1"

., .,.

(51% cd Cap"

, ,

,,"

>.0

Stock 156,JOO,OOOI!Js .

26.6
14.9

so

'.0

lAu .. , Uncapitalized Annual nmtal5 $10.4 mil


'.nsion
L1lblllty None il'99 vs. $4.04 mill. in '98.
Pid Stock None

28.1
21.6

....

1990
1988 1989
1991
1986
1987
22.12 22.40
34.82
38.98
31.61
31.55
'U9
1.78
3.05
H6
2~2
208
292
Vi
11';
.76
1.66
1.87
1.44
1.69
1.76
.
.70
94
1.01
.71
.86
1."
190
1.81
1.63
1.70
1.21
.'3
.7'
3.43
0.44
3.85
4.32
15.59 13.61 1.4.61
1,.,."
''''.1~ 11w 107.23
10.(
172
11.7
13.
175
102
1.39
1.70
1.10
.95
.94
1.32
1.22
,,2';
U\
3.4\
21\
HI
27%
3.'%
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE a of 9I3WlI1
2393.3
Tcrtal Debt $1335.4 mi. DR In 5 Yrs $581.5mll.
15.0""
IT IrrteI'Ql $78.5 miD.
LT Debt Sl090.6mill.
06.6
ill.'
(lT 1'II9nl5I1IllIITIed: 2.Bx; kltBl irtllr8St
ClMlIilge: 2.&)
(49" of Cop~ 43.5%

CURRENT POSmDN

25.6
21.8

15.6

--

"

1985

Cammon

lU) W~1.25~ 0.3%

214(TrOloi

lledil'l: 11J

.. ......
.".....

Decisions
\Q'01

12.3

/fInD!

35 {i~70~t 28"

L..
25
+90%
,."
Inskler Decisions
DJF.".JJA
001 000 000
000
0 0 0 000

..s...,

16.3

frmn 01197
Reillife Pm Slr'!Ilgch

Ann' Total ~
ReftmI:

Gdn

Prtce

13 o41~
RATKI

l~eEHT
PRICE

....

96' 32'

'''''

.."

'-'"

'" "

'"

BUS .. ESS: PelJSiArneIbs, Inc.


factwes, dislrmlll8s and markets Pepli-Co" products. It is lie
runber two anchor botIllI" in 1he Pepsi sysUlm, lrih rlpflriJlions .n
18 U.S. IlDs as
as Puerb Rm, J.mai:::ll, Bahamas, TriIidad,
PoIiIInd, Hungary, Czech Rspublic: and he R&puk: of Slavakil. Aba
distribllt!!s non-Pepsi brands (Dr. Pepper, ,.,.~
Pmdl 11 tlMt

populatDn at 115 mllixl peopB. Hill lbout 14,500 Ihaftlhol ......


15,400 em~
'00 dep. rat; 7J5%. Olb. ItTld dB Dll'n
d slk.., PepsiCo, 39.5'10 (3101 prm:y). Chnnn. & CEO: Rabsrt
Pohlancl. lfIc.: DE. AdG'.: 3501 AIgonquil Rd., Ri*lg Meadows, Il
60008. Tel: 708-818-5000. Web: www.pepsiilrnlD:ilS.com.

We"ve shaved a nickel off our 21101


earnings-per-sbare
estimate for PepsiAmericas
to reflect
both weak
domestic volume trends and hi~er
operating costs. At the beginning 0 thJ.s,
year, the number-two anchor bottler In the
Pepsi system had forecast soft.-drink
volume growth In the U.S. of 2%-3'16.But,
it now appears that reduced demand for
Pepsi Cola wUl largely offset continued
strength In flavored and noncarbonated offerlngs. leading to an annual gain domestically of Just
1/2'16-1% (Pepsi Cola
unit
volume declined In the low single digits in
the third quarter. continuing the trend of
the first half of the year.) Moreover. In the
third quarter. PAS began to upgrade its
inventory-control
system (which. it Is
hoped. will eventuaUy enable the oompany
to more effectlvely manage an expanding
portfolio of products.) Although the cost of
the conversion was Incurred
In the
quarter. PAS has yet to realize the bene~
fits from the new system. As such. we now
expect earnings this year to increase 11%
over comparable ZOOOresults. versus ZO%
previously. (Note: Prior to ZOO]. our pub~
llshed figures reflect the operations of

Whitman CoflXlration. which on November


3D, 2000, purchased and assumed the
name of PepslAmericas. then the th1rd.largest domestic Pepsi bottler. Pro fonna
2000 earnings, assuming the merger of
Whitman and the fonner PepslAmericas
occurred on December 31. 1999. were
$0.54
a share.)
Average annual eand.ngs growth of
111%-22% o""r the next
few years
remains
the
target.
Re-..stabllshlng
growth In the Pepsi trademarl< llkely
remains one of the biggest challenges. as
consumer preference continues to shift
toward. bottled water and non-carbonated
drinks. That said. management has made
strides In achlevlng Its growth plan, Ineluding redudng international losses (operating losses in Central Europe, for example, decreased 95% In the third quarter)
and maintaining rational prldng. The contlnuing integration of the newly merged
companies and further fold-in acquisitions
should also help .
These
shares
ren>ain
abovean
average selection for long-term capital appreclatiOlL
Nils C. WID Liew
November 9. 2001

we.

1.4"

(A) FIS. yr. ends 1st Sat. r:I fobing~.


(19tl); '99, (23), Next egs.. rpt. dll8 wi)' Ftlb- mil., S11.1!listl". (D) In mil (E) Ind. ESOP
Company'.
F neilIl Stm1g1h
PmL egs. hu '96, lien III. Em. OOmE. gain ruary. (HJ Nul ann. drv'd ntg. ilbout Feb. debt in '89, W. (F) Spi1-df of P81, Inc. (G)
hick's
Price Stabiltty
~):
'89 (37l: '90, (Stoo); "91, 18; '92, 22nd. Goes 81 abl MIKh 911. Div"d pmnl eft. Spin-oft ofHus5ll'lln & Mid.,.
PricI Growth Peralltence
30;); '93. (261; '94, (1lt. ~7, (421); ~8, ,.,""""".(C,,"'
.... "'.'.""$1.7
.... 7
~~
.. lilli, VIIue lilt ~~
1"Il5ftd. rld.imIl'1111f:ri11
is atQred "_
b*WlllI be niIIIIe _ is pMIed ~
-mrs d ~ kild.
TIi[ PlIIUSHfIlISNlT RE
ORAM!'
rRRO~ OROIIISSIONSHfRf".Tba~
is 5ftIJ bSlD5ailllr"l-.IlOlH~*"ciaL
...... lI...
pill'
"
: II:
d. my lie ~
II!SIlId.
ibid II ~
.. MJ Ift*d. eld'tIIIE II aid .... III.-t"
,......
1I..uiIII} IIIJ' pi*I .-:nit ~
Imi::I! ar ~

B
75
NMF
II

PERRIGO CO NDQ.PRGO

1,.......
,
TllEUllfSS
3
NslZ/11191
SAFm
TECHNiCAl 3 _'"Oll'''
BlTA .!Ill ('I.DD. MIIt.!f)
200WS

High:
Low;
LEGENDS
15.0 I
. "
Re/;IM
2_.1s;~M]

....

p 1tI
Pra 5a'mgfl

IIIN ~

22..
'1.9

P,eRAOO.117 D1V'D
12.751~oo.19.6{=:: m) IIflATNE
14.4

34.J
10.9

cai:'~

"

Receivables
Inventory (FIFO)

Olh.'
CUlT8nl

Assets
Acds Payable
0001"""

Qlher

ANNUAL RATES

"s_.........

197.4

126.9
46.4

94.3
382.8
68.2
8.7

268 .
63.2

8.'

CUmlnt Uab.

'33.2
Pat
ll'rs.
8.5%
5.5%
6.0%

''Cash Aow"

~~~~
a-v_

11.0

7.'
68.2

---!!:!
1138

Put

....
.......
313.1

12.8

74.6
171.8

Esfd'H-'01

n...
2.5%

86.8
44.2

1e1.1

6,""

-8.0%
-13.0%

20.0"

1.5%

12.UJ'

--

25.5"

F1ocol

27.tn'

..

QUARTBlLT SAW II Illil.I A


Y.,
E_ ep.PerDK.Ptr IIar.Per JunP.r
1!IR 223.' 2~ll.7 223.6 21~.5
1119 2123 226.1 2S1.4 lB7.8
209.~ 197.2 111.5 150.5
ztIl1 1921 189.6 190.B 180.B
lZB
US
ZfS
'80
F1....
EARllNGS PER SHARE A
~.p.Per Dec.Per"'r.Per JunPer
1981
.19
,13
.17
d.02
1911
d.04
.10
.13
d.ll
,lIB
.15
.13
d.ll
,I(
.1(
ZOO1
.19
.08
ztIl2
.11
.n .'7 .03

-.-Y.,

ca,
......
'""

QUARIBlLY OJYllEHDS PAIl

.....
,

Y.,
902.6
m,6
738,6
753.5

...

FiKai

Y.. ,

.~7

.08
.26
.55
.80
Full

"ar.31 Jun.30 S.n.30 Dec:.S1 Yur

1997

NO CASH DMDENDS
BEI'lGPAID

1119

2001

\.IFO<O'/.::

Io'-:__

..... ""s __

11211:'1,~

.,

..

UIe ~~,

THEI'\BUSIRISNJ1R
tar
lIllIceIL moI4. -.al

Dl ~

.."" .
.',
"

"

.. ...

....

3H
15.8'4
37."
31.'%

..

183.7
14.31
15.5'
15.5'

..

1,13
.97
.71

9.~2 10.19
.90
.88
,58
.52

.,

..

.82
3,90

..

."

..

"'
1.<1
..

.-

,58

..

23

~.<I ~.99
7,
7 .

2.J8

1997 1998
12.08
11.09
,88
.13

".
1.50
..

,47

..

..

.10

.95
~,62

5,59
.15
17,1
1.03

..

2"
1.45

..

......1--

1~.
J~.

..12U

28.3
5'1.1 ~
1999 20~ ~001 2002 cYALUEUNE PUB,lit. 04*
11.91
10,05 10.17
fUO S"pII'M A
,17
.01
Cash ReM"' pII' III
.57
I.~
,08
.55
.26
.10 EmIIng.persh All
1.00
.. .. "
NR Diy'd, DIcI'd pIt'''
NB
.38
10
.J5 c.. " ............ oI>
.50
4,54 U9
521
1111 Booll YIktI pIr sh c
l~
71.. Comnan Sbs outsrSi IJ 7<00
14.07
73."
16.~
N!IF
A~ Ann'l PI'ERIIio
292
><0
N!IF
1.90
112
R*1iYI PIE bfiD
1.10
66.0

53.'

'u.

...

...

..

..

...

..

..

...

..

13.0%

..

10.5'10

..

NI

A'flI Ann' IliY'd YIIId

""'It
""'It_.

I~

'1511

".0
71'
3U"

~,~
7.'"
-. """'I""~I
,..,

5.'"

18.5"

I- 2

10.6

SaIH ($IoiII)
153.5
669,3 711.1 778.1 1'4.6 902.6 m.6
738.6
ooring
__A
16.3~ 13.K 1~3\ 11.2~ 9.6% 5,0~ 1.8" 11.2\ 11.5%
20.7 21.2
23.0 ,<0 Dopno;_llnoll
lU
23.1 273
22.3
222
41,0 Not
54,1
~ 39,1 45.0 35,3 5.7 19,3 41.2
Ilnoial
37,0~ 38,", 36.3" 36.5" 31.0," 43.I~ 38.711 36.~~ 3U" InCOllt fu RnI
5.5%
3.9%
.711
6.2'To
5.3"
'2~
1'" Nil
170.1
167.0
231.0
249.4
154.8
1-41.3
17.
139.9
169.6
..
.. NR lonll-TIMtI o.bt (1td)
n,9
135.0
!l!I.l <1,1
1.5 81.6
34/),6 3812 ~25.9 345,1 332.4 351.8
Z35.a
43. Slrr. f
295.5
10.7%
10.7%
>J~
5.5%
10.5% R.... m DII Totll Clip'
14.9"
15.31
99% 10.1'" 8.a,
5,5% 10.7% la.'" Rnam on sm. EaWtv
19,0~ 18.5' 13.0~ 10.5' 10.6% 10.2~ 1.1,
19.0%

5
3

.. TOT. RE11JRIII

....

5~,

10.6%

..

102%

..

I!IUSIfESS: PeniIlO Ccmpany is the lilrgest manuf.IIt:lLA'fl' d DWf


the-allmta (Ole) ph..mKeulical (82% of bcal 2001 sallis) and
nlllritXlnal (18'" ~ucts b the sb&-tnInd CI' Irir.ItlHabel mar
kat. Sells 1.200 producb to aboul300 custornen;, ilcluding f\iIli:lnal
and regDnal drugsk.n, supemlll'tel, and mass merdJandi.
chains. Wal-MMl: KCOUnMd far 25% tJl' flSC3l 2001 buSIless; fQl'-

1.7%

..

10.7%

5.5"10

..

..

..

,"

R... .cItDConEq
NJJ AI o;,'d. to JMI Prd

350

N'
UD

'U"
'U"
IU"

2.3'"

NH

eign customen. 5.8%. 2001 deprec. 1idIl: 6.'''; RID,


or
sales. Esfd plant age: 9 years. Has 4,570 1Wl'lpIo)'Iles; 1,0475 sharehokIen:. Oft. & dr. own 15.5% 01 stick; dher map 1mIsb:n.
13.7% (9101 proxy). Q!ilm.n: MJ. Jaramoa. Pr8sidenl & CEO:
D.T. Gibbons. lnc.: Michig&1L Addnilss: 515 Eastwn Ave.., Alegan.
MI49010. THlphone: 616-673-84S1.InWnet: www.perrigo.arn.

A falterinf. U.S. economy may work to role, particularly a knockoff of Pepcid AC


Perrigo's
avor. A:s the dominant domes- that was launched In the June quarter.
tic supplier of store-brand.
drugs, the And more are likely, as the company has
company has litlIe room to gain market 40 products under development. Over the
share from its direct competitors. But it 3- to S-year pull, the FDA may create a
by switching
three
still has ample opport\Ul.itles to capture huge sales opportWliI.y
sales from brand-name drug manufac- prescriptlon
antihistamfnes
(ScherlngZyrtec, and
turers. 1111sis a key element in the compa- Plough s Clarltin. Pfizer's
Aventts' Allegra) to the
market.
ny's long.tenn strategy. Indeed, Perrifc0
alms to see store-brand dn1gs account QI" InteInationaI
operations
are slated
close to 3lJ%.of the OTe market Within five for further expansion. The purchase of
years. versus about 20'*' today. A weak
a U.K. OTC drug manuIacturer in June
double Perrigo's foreign sales, to
economy may help by prompting more con- should
sumers to try low-priced. store-brand offer- $90 million. this fiscal year. FW1:her out.
tngs as a way to manage their household an expansIon of the European base, perbudgets. Similarly. fiscal constraints re- haps via acquisitions, is planned to parallated to fixed incomes may win customers leI Wal-Mart's bulldout on the Continent.
We...,
looking
for
healthy
profit
from among the
cohort of elderly.
growth to mid-decade.
Annual sales
New products shoul attract business
as welL Fiscal 2002 (started July
Isl.) galns In the 5%-10% r.mge will likely be
sales should
benellt
from the rollout or complemented by gradually wider marcough/cold medicines to replace com- gins. The profitability Improvement will
parable products that were discontinued
stem, we believe. from economJes of scale
lUlder a broad FDA mandate last year. related to a one-year-old manufacturing
Then. too. the cough/cold season Is getting plant in Mexico and from sourcing-<:ost
off to a faster 5.tart this year than it did in b~neftts stemmlng from the new foreign
2000. and it is expected to be more severe presence. This stock is a timely selection.
than a year ago. Other products will playa
Keith A. Marlr.ey
October 26. 2001
""_~ZOO1:1472m""",
C.............
_'81......
8__

arc

arc

growinl

........ "" """..,..... ~""_

Un8 3Olh. . fo 1999, .nded on June 3OIh. bsaes: :18, $1.1&: :19, 6: 1>1. 1~. N8xI: e;m...
(81 PrmBry earnings through fiscaI199l5,
ngs RIp! due IIt8 January.

all

'2

10

53'38

1.7
89.2

'",.

,11111

"

P.rcent ' .0
ah.r-s 11..

"-,

2004 2005 2006

'

Cammon Stock 74,881,037 slls. (100% of Clip')


as g\' 8I2IlI1
MARKET CAP: $1.2 billion (Mid Clip)
CURRENT POSITI)N
1190 2000

Targltt Price Range

7.4

Il' ...

.. ..

P8nigD, founded in 1887 by Luther Per- 1991 1992 1_6


rigo, enf8red tho pharmaceutical business
5,60 7.63
5.11
]I)
by repackaging and distributing drugs for
,~
.56
resal. by rulai sfores. II opened ils fi..t
10
AI
.58
.. .. ..
manufacturing plant in 1921 and built iIs
,90
sales force to 50 wilhin a few years. AlI.r
.1~
27
completing severel acquisitions, the lXlI11pa- .60 251 3.14
ny was taken private via a leveraged bUyout 54.
7.
.. 36.1 3U
in 1988. Three years la1er, 8 miHion shares
.. ~19 2.05
(adjus1ed for a subsequent spl~) were sold
..
.. ..
through an initial public offenng led by
Morgan Slanl.y & Co. and J.P. MOfllan 281.3 409,1 510.8
Sewriliea Inc.
14.1% 16.'" 15.6%
CAPITAL S'TRUCT1JRE IS of 113CUQ1
9.5 12.0
15.4
Total Of,bt S12.8 mil. Due in 5 Y" $12.8 mil.
122 28,6 ".5
LT Debt Notre
36.8\
38,6~ 36.4\
~,3~ 7.0" 1.11'4
38.1 91.1 121.9
Lea,., Unc:apttalized A,nnuBIIBn1ab$5.2 mil
Pension Uabllity None No defiled benefit plan.
1~1 46.0
75.2

"

.. ,.....

40
5251.

5.0

30
25

/"

.7

7.0

Nil

l1J)

18.3

40

."

000
1 0 0 0 0 0
000000202
2 0 0 0 0 1 208
InstltuUorwl Decision.
70

7:>.

...

..

JQI.'

14.3

I~ssiln

R_

- ,-

'7.3
8.'

8.3

10.5

DJfMA.,1JA

52

14.5

Fr' ' ...

, I

(~35~1

..."".....
....
::~ 5'~

34.'
19.1

Ann'lTcrtII

3D
23"
20
+55% 11"
Insider DeclslDrw

t'r

15.4
10.0

c.!Ih r ...

PROJE",!,!~S

Pri"

I~CENI
PRICE

...

WRI.
(D) In milli:lns, adjusted for met

- -

__
. f.m.l/lllkliil is .....
1IllIII ~
~Ilrbr~..,
is ~1MdetI1IIihDiIr ~~Uld.
ORIIl'f[RRORSQROMISSlONSH[RlliI.lJIil,~issh:trIllr~-'IIIJIl~ilQnlllu~.
m IIlJ ".
-....:
II _
ba Dl V5IlIIDl
IIIIiIg
..,.
pri'IIlIli IitcDIiI;
Rni:r

....

S"ck's PriCliStabllitJ'
PrIct Gruwth PwsBlencli
Earnings PrwlidablRIJ

spit.
pM
Dl

.".

eo
5
35

:11:

11-,

PHELPS DODGE NYSEPD


lWEUNSS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL
IilETA

.BlI

4 l.atltrelll1r11l1
3 N~7121m
4 _ .. JIm

(1.00

21llM-46

MIIbQ

PROJECTIONS

""'n'11D1a1
Prk.I
GaIn
RftJm
Killh
70 (+140%\ 28"
Ln
50
(+70%J
fiS"
lnald., Deciaklns

High:
low:

35.8
23.1

0pIiNI
IISIIlI

39.6
26.2

r..- p

l.EGENDS

5.0 l-C,'lh

53.0
32.0

55.6
39.1

......

ng

lS.O
47.e

70.5
51.9

n.,

89.6
59.9

54 .

71.8

43.'

NMF:'IYlDIDlV'D 1.7%

RELATIVE
PfRAOO
70.6
41.9

73.0
36.1

"

,,' "

II"!I., .

..... ..

.".

1
."

, ,

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
000000000

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Decision.
.tll2.. 1m.' 102.1 P.ll:ent 30.
137
106
117 .h.r 20.
59~
~
~
tl1lded 10.0

IrwtitutiDnal
.. ..,
:.::.,

55.7
25.7

s.cngfJ

0""'.. '"
111',1 , ..

Pf NMF(T... :NIIF)
29 OOd'IRATIO
1_:Il.l

'Ih

~-~~

2:b:, ~519~

DJf."MJJA

"""

IIRECENI
PRICE

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 .2000
46.54 61.02
36.65
16.33 15.57 2610
38.03 38.99 3816
34.96
36.81
68.52 66.76 52.88
39.60
8.05
13.90 11.16
1.12
1.30
3.57
8.56
9.14
8.53
5.91
6.07
5.32
12.34
4.37
6.65
2.66
516
10.42
.11
29
2.26
6.68
7.12
6.56
3.93
3.76
7.13
7.14
LI7
24
.

.08
.48 111.43 1.50
1.80
1.50
1.61
1.65
1.69
1.85
2.00
2.00
200
5.80
2...55
5.14
3.65
5.49
5.02
H3
1128
5.49
.63
.65
243
2-94
3.14424
30.85 39.G4 42.59 42.81 44.66 41.66
'4.39
15.18 11.68 23..55 19.50 24.43 26.11
26.03 2ll.67
.66
7 .
57.
10. 1 7.
54.
6 .
6ll.8
17.5
41.
.3
32
4.3
4.4
9.1
10.7
31.4
N...
5.8
11.9
n.0
~
85
Nr.t=
2.82
.55
.'B
.33
.33
51
.62
1.85
NY:
>4
.n 1.03 .n .39
3.0% 3.0%
2.91
26%
3.41
3.5%
4.5% 3.6% 3.5%
--.4% 23% "4.7'
52%

... .....-..

.. TOT. RETlJRI' WI'

"""
32.3

-42.9
50.7

.10.6
26 3
55 1

2001 2002 eYALlJEUNEP\IIl,IIC.


5101' 51.70 SaIl. per Ih
110
5.. CasU.r" per It!
co.. d.15 EnInII' per III A

.50 DlY'd. DKI'd pi!' III


t45
110 C"" Sponlin. po.. "
25.111 25.05 BookYlhilperlhc
170
70
IIIOIIhs
V
JIIil ~ _
AYJ Ann'l Pit ROo
NNF ~
*1&11 u.
Rlillift PIERdo
NMF
41%
..,;
A" Ann' Oh'd YIoId

57.50
682
.82
200
5.05
39.45
7

114-41

a.5
13.10
145
.10
7.00
'1.70
7UG
11-0
.75
1.Jl1

7000
2434.3 1579.3 2595.8 32892 4165.4 3786.6 3914.3 3063A 3114.4 4525.'
4336
4U0 ~
(lnilJ1
22.61 221% 19.3% 22.9% 31.0'11 15.7% 24.0'
fl."" 11""0_, .",In
15.1% 16.6'
11."
10.""
100
329.1 4642
249.5 283.7 293.3
223.6
181.1 1853
136.9 1623
415
'10 Oopod~ l.~ml
730.0
4JO
d300
tI1D.D Nit Prall rImIIl
14.8 n.3
4725
440.1
92.0
373.6
187.8
272.9 2652
aNlAge: 1.6:1:)
(47% ofCap'l) 1----i~'+if.'iH_ii'iii-i---;ii~_GiT.'+iiiHT.i<i-hi'iii'+~rrof.if1____'iiii<t__''iiirr.;:::::;;:!:'i~--h.i:'__j
HIE
IIIIF IncomTuRD
32.51 30.1% 36.0% 29.9'4 29.8% 32.0'11 31.0% 39.6%
39.0% 35.8'
31.""
Luses,
UnClilpttl.lizMlAnnual
rent!ll5 $17.0 miD.
.5'10 1.6'10 >IF
11.n
3.0'4
72% 11.4,. 17.4' 12.5'
1111
N/IIF N~ ProI1I1q1n
10.3'
328.9 215.1
8502
5582
341.6 449.1 4473
89.1
735.6 350.0
700
PensionLiability None
613.1 554.'
836.4 2112.5 1963.0
851.1
6223
5473
3820
373.8
J.IBO
1859.3 19n.5 20221 2181.6 2fJT1.7 2755.9 2510.4 2581.4 3216.8 3105.0
PhI Stcd: Ntml!I
81% 14.1% 23.0% 15.0% 13.9'
HIE
HIIF R.un UI TublICap'
1.3%
3.4%
3.7%
Common Stock 78,705,035 shs.
(53% of Ga.P1) 13.2% 1l.3%
'.5lI
as of 1110101
HIE
HIIF Rnn UI stw. E~
.5% 2.3%
14.1% 13.4'10 83% 11.1'10 'B.3% 11.1'10 11.51
3.6%
MARKET CAP:52.3 bllion (liid Cap)
226% 12.S'lo 12.6'10 NMF
3.5%
HIIIF
NIIF RI'tIIned to CollI Eq
NIIF
NMF
9.1'10 1.1'
11.6'
11.0"
1",
17%
NMF
NMF NU.F HIE
HIIF AI DlY'dsto Nit PraI
32%
38%
62%
27%
26%
CAPffALSTRUCTUREasof~
Total Dtibt 52967.1 mi. Due in 5 YIS 51900.0mll.
LT Debt $2538.0 mil.
LT IntI:flilt $150.0 miD.
(LT intefesI earTMId: 1.61; tDtallYlM!Sl

f-'"",rr-""~r.""'+~~--,,"~+'*,,,H--"'~+--''''''H'''*~t-'ill'rr-'-Ciii-t-'''T.~c::::;~~O'...-+--'''i.o.-j

t""

""'

1991
1991
200lI
2001
2002

THE PITTSTON CO. NYSEPZB


SAmY

RElATfIE

,,,

____I

Ann, 10lil

11'1"'1 1,\' "

Reun
30%
18%

40
+90%
IMide, DK'lslons
DJF.".JJA
00000
0 0 0 0
000
5 0 0 000
D 0 0 e 0 0 000

- - .. -

....

....
=::'1

15.8

80

'-

({1~1

eo

--

uu.,

"''''
'"
55 43592" "
.zm

'

'

. .. ..
'
'

...

11M""

43419

12

....

..

..

..

..

...,rat

859.9
22.,

Rea1ivables
Otho'
CUrn!nt

Aswts

Acds Payabl8

De,,"""

CUlT8nt

39J
00f.9
152.0

70.8
813.6
316.8

67.3
75.1
761.8
287.3

548.9

~
8983

435.8
635.1

ANNUAl RATES Put


tIT ....
"'-"1'''"'1
Re_ues
.-

--

''ClISh FJow"

..
..
..

~=.
Book ViIIlu.

....,
ea.

-.....
1991
IIl!9

200'
2DD2

Co).

'991

11!!1

200'

2DD2

ea.

Past

n...

,~%

QUARTERLY REVEIlUES ~

........

01.1

7.'"

FilII

Sep.SO Dlc.31
359.8 381.S 399.7
972.3 1044 1118 ;:3 .2

948.2 990.9 995.2 3834.1


!IIlIl.3 884.0 884.3 1114 3510
140
1000 3830
I3D
IIIl
929.8

.-

EARNIIIG9
PEIl_
lIar.31 Jlln.31 SIPJO
.52
.51
.39
.65
.09
.29
.21

FilII

......
.11

.[1/

.3'

DlC.31
. z.02
.56
.67
lIS
d.56
.05

.11

.Jl
DoeJ1
.025

.30
.411 .511
QUARTBD.YONIlEIIDS PAIl"

J.'.30

S;",;jO"

lfi7

.025

.025
.025

.025
.025

.025

.025
.025

2001

H%

8.5"
13.OK

18.5%

.".31

'!119
2000

.......

Est'd'l8-'.

3z.o"

lIar.31 JudO

310.3
954.9

1122

18.0%5.0%

endar

,.

85.'

am

Liab.

97.1

=3

45.1

1342

Otho<

I."."

97.8
599.9

.025
.025
.025
.025

.025
.025

.025

.025
.025

.025

1".
3" .

.72
1."

.FilII

.10

.10
.10
.10

..

"...

'1.7.

..~
." 408S.2
.65

1451.3
15.3'
82.,

NMF

3834.1

9.~

6.0%

180.3
871

189.0
z.7

200
37.0

CI 2(1)1, 'MIe Ule ~


lllE PlI8l.lStrR IS NJT

~
R[

17.30
30.'"

17.'

R_P/ER
...
Avg AIln' D1v'd YW4
3130 RlVlllun ($nIRl)
'.Oll

1.15

....-'"

UJll

5.5%

40.3
93.3
46U

Z5lI

130

........",....

"-'"
14%
'00

.,~.." ,ts"

31.

I7S
RdinI on TaW Cap'
fO"
SIr. E.....
17,1'%
7.0ll 14.0ll R.......
11.'~
11.1%
lOll lz.", R._1d 10COlI q
NM'
lU"
1.%
III All Dtv'd, " PMt ProI
5ll
NM'
of the ttal. Has abOlfl 16.500 em~ees
8nd 8.350 stIarvhotlen.
FNR Corp. awns 7.5% of lXIl'lI'mn sb::k; David G1eene & Co .
9.0%; BO!lDI Partrll!n Asset Nanagement, 5.6%; oIfan and
divcton, 1.9% (3ItIl PnJxy). P..... Chairman & CEO: Nidlael T.
Can. lnc.: VA. Adlhss: 1801 Beybeny C1., P.O. Box 18100, RIChmond. VA23226-8100. Tal: 804-289-9690. Web:pitskJn.a:m

The Pittston
Company is seeing a
little light at the end of the tunnel.
The company has been struggUng wtth
poor results all year. Despite restructuring
efforts to reduce costs at the BAX (air
freight) group, soft demand has plagued
this business. AddJtlonally, difficult economic and pol1t1cal condJtlons in Latin
America, the loss of a major customer In
Canada. foreign exctumge losses, and
start-up costs In the U.K. and Belgium,
have all been crimping sales and earnings.
Things are looking up. however. Pittston
~
close to selling its coal assets
M), which wo~arner
proceeds of approximately $100
on This is essential
to help pay down the estimated $600 mUlion In legacy liabUitles for coal miners'
health probl~ms. Moreover, the recent failun!;
of the BAX SUbsidiary's main air
freight rival, Emery, means Pittston now
has an opportunity to aggressIvely go after
more market share in this industry. Lastly, margins in the European annored car
segment are st:.art.lngto improve now that
the aforementioned start. up Olsts In the
UK and Belgium are diminishing.
But eanJings visibility in ZIIOZ is

poorer than nonnal due to the growing imc:rtance or more unpredictable


variab e5. ExtelTla! vagaries Include the
relative strength of the dollar vis-a-vis the
euro and other foreign currendes. contract
cancellations. and the political and economic: situation in Latin America. Pittston
does have some control over galnlng more
volume in the air freight market, and will
probably do so, thus aiding results at BAX.
The company is also likely to be able to
hold t.he llne on costs, although severance
expenses are probably going to continue
through mid-year. Margins at the armored
cae division should gradually Improve.
though. (Application of the new FASB rule
aocounting for goodwill amortization will
add around $0.15 to 2002's bottom line.)
The patient investor should do quite
weD here. Sale of the coal assets and a
better-perionning
air
freight business
would make a good start. Pittston has the
world's largest armored car business. and
this. along with the re1aUveJystable home
security segment should generate doubledJgit annual share-net growth through
2004-2006 .
Jeremy J. Butler
November 23. 2001

..

1151

17.01

215.5
18.71

9.0~

1.9"

" " "

I~-'

meI'mI. FIdrIII IIIIlBiIll is 1IUineII1,..


1UIIItft t*IItd to be ,....
... is pIWii:ted
OR
[RRORS OR 0MlSSl0NS HlREIN.
il. sft::Iy" ~5
_.IIllIIl~
E11l1J piIIIN. elDlIlIi: II ..
lira II Isd b IJI"Ifl*Ig II .-..;
.,. PJ*III ClI ...

Ill'!

...

IIn.11
210 D__
80.8 ...... fiIlln.1I
40.8~ 'z.0% 4O.0ll 4O.0ll IncorIt Ta bit
Z.1~
.1~ 1.0ll tl%
68.8 <184.7 m.o
311.0 W_a CIp'lllnml
395.1
310
311.4
Jf5 LooIT ... -11nIIl)
749.6
475.8
51<1 SI,,:EouJty I$nllj'
'1'

79.1
37.0%

f-

UO

--

35'"
1.0ll

11.10
.. 0
z.t5

....,.: ::.-

.6~

f-

242
642

-32.1

1999 2000 2001 2002


39.>1
IllO.07 74.05 7UO 75.10 RIMftUlI per III
3.10
tlO
570 CuIlR .....
1h
'.55
'.38
2.02 2.15
.05
.72
1... Elmngsperlh"
.10
.10
.10
.10
.11 DiY'ds Dlcl'd pIf' III
6.86 4.14
5411 CIf"I_a
'.30
.. 1h
'1'
12.51
9.19
10.05
11.3. BooIIYIk.-,..1b
1835
'Uo 51.'" COIDIIICIn Shl CJUtIt'g t:
40."
17.
11..4
NMF
AVI! Ann" PIE Rdo

(A) ...................
_
.. ~
$1."'. ""'" _ .. n"""" ........ Jon. EO;
J""", Se,l.. end Do< ~
.......
thrDugh 1998. then d~uB:I. E."ingI iI 1
n 'lXl donlltdd due to change in shares ouI- (D) Bated on unaudilod pro
da1a for
excUie a gail on 1'1!5triet.:l Investment of &anding.l81 Nb1 dioti:ktndInII8&Jg .arly Feb. 1992, 1993, 1994, and I'le fnt nine morrIhs of
SO.". and iI loa llfl maHelillad charges of Goes P rrlidhb. Oiv'd prmt. dat8s: thIt fnl of 1995.
~ .., lirlllplllliDd. mIlK _elf II ......,

.......

""
""'"
21.'
-311.0

,".
o VAlUE UlE P\I8, liC.

1998

258.8
313.4
360.
19.011 tUI 18.01 101.71
.. 16.1% 19.3~ 19.7~ 19." 19J~ 17.1%
.- 16.3% 17.7" 1841 H.8" 18."% 16.3"
.. 10~
8~
7~
7'4
aUSINESS: The Pittston Company consists fA amU8d 13", IIIDI1B)'
processng (Brink', loc.), homII S8Q1ri1y S81'VDts (Bmk', Home
Security), Ii" teight (BAX GIobaI~ and nauall'lSOLll'C8 opeRI.ions
(coa~ gc*l. & natIQI gal. The company ns bmed IhrDugh Ihe
amllgllll'lBbl 01 its SAX (PZX), Bmk', (PZB) and Nllerall (PZM)
~ps n 1/00. Revanues oubide of North MMn::a 8f8 lIbou155%
"

(62%tI Cap'!)

180.1

Irrventory (FIFO)

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

--

10

.. TOT. RT1JRN 1C11D'1

10.0

,...

18

....

lcoal

IIARKETCAP: $1.1 billion (liid Cap.)


CURRENTPOSmoN
2000

24
20

"

'.

Pittston Company consists of Ihree di~ 1991 992" 993" 994" 9950 1996 1997
sions. PiIIslon BAX (Iorrnerly Pittston Bur
13.88 15.41 17.39 2014 23JS 28.69
.. 1.53 1.10 m z.48 z.59 3.51
linglDn Group), Pittslon Min8rals Group
.65
1.10
and minerals), and Pittston BMnk's
"
.86
1.15 1.$
1.90
..
armored car and horne securlly). The Servo
.09
.10
.10
"
.09
.10
.. 1.18 1.29 1.49
ices (PZS) and ....norals (PZM) Groups
Z.51 3.03
.. .- 4.75 510 6.81 8.21 9.91
WM! created in July 1993. In January of
.. 37.06 >;.91 37.7. 38JJ2 38.16 38.40
1996, shareholders of the Services Group
..
..
..
.. 17J 17.'
voted to divide its shares into two separately
"
.. .. .. .. .. 1.11 I.110
traded stocks; Pittston Brink's Group (PZS)
.. .. .. .. ~ .3~
and PiIIslon Burlington Group (PZX). In Jan'
"
uary of 2000, all Ihe group's .hares .....
511.0
51U
657.0 7....
509. 1101.4
exchanged 10 Iorm one steek; Piltslon Co.
.. 13.6% 14.8~ 15.2% 15.2'11 16.'1 11.0%
(PZB).
.. 32.8 >I., 38.5 430 50! 61J
24.0
41.5
CAPITAL STRUCTURE u of 113M1
31.7
51.1
59.7 73.'
Total D.btS423.9 mi. Dile ~ 5 lIS S"2.2mll.
.. 362~ 38.~ >I.'~ 30.7'4 33.5'4 35.0~
LT
$28.1 mil
LY Dlibl$311.7 mi.
6J~
6n
5.6"
6.5'
'.7'4
6.6'
138%of Ca,'Q
..
208
36.8 50.7 68.7
"
'.0
Leu.,
UncapttlliZlldAnnual18ntJ:1s $116.6 nil
.. lz.6
8.0
S.S
.8
38.6
P.nsiOllUablJtty None
PM Stock None
C~
SIoct 51.778,7821~
as of 1C1{7101

--

'

Pen:ent 15.0

OZ

60
50
40
32

"',1'''

InstttuUonal Decislona

CaJr~

.
Targ8t Price R..nge
2004 2005 2006

25.3

Z2.l
10.7

18.1

~_~s,ect!SSlUl'I

2004-<16 PROJECTIONS
GM1

3Z.0

42.9
28.0

'Z.1
25.3

22.'

1lIV'D

U I Cl91 r... p 5h
.. ".. R~
PrEe ShrIgIh

BETA 10 (lllll-WlrUI)

Price

3Z.8

High:
Low,

LEGEr.OS

3....,,,,,,,,

TECHNiCAl

20. 781~oo23.1 G=::) PRAOO. 1 25 no 0.5%

3 Rail.ed ItlZQl
3 Ntw3ll85

TWEUNESS

I~ECEHI
P~CE

nm ~

wGatl ~

rI
imnIII

puIlIcIfan. ~

MILUJd.

flIlI
III11l1ut1

lnr.

e*

C... p.~f".nctol "......


S1ock'. rica stell1y
PI'icI Gruwtb '-'I"I.-nce
Eamlngs PrMicta.bllilJ

I .,

.
II:

70
15
20

II.

RALCORP HLDS.. INC. NYSERAH


TllEUNISS

2 ..... .,..,

SAFETY

3 "'''"01

TECHNICAL

3 .....

LEGENDS
1.0 I "Cash F__
~d

J J
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0

CIZWI
43

lQr.l
50

0
0
0

2'~

222~

21.7
13.0

23.1

SA

'8.6

20.9
15.8

19.4
11.5

Tarv-I Prit. Range

20.8
15.1

2Oo.t 2005
__
______

~'I

.,.

f"r

,"

.. ....

..

~'InstlluUonal
IIIJ
Decisions
:::"_

28.e

P sh

,,%

..,

28.0
21.4

"

J F
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0
D

11''''
~.

24.1
13.5

l~;

2l104-O6 PROJECTIONS
AM'TotIJ
Prle.
Q.IiII
Rnn
....
.S (+130%'
l.o'I'
30' '+55%(
IMider Deeialans

19 50 I~
Ii.,) ~J%O.78~ Nil
RAT10 133('ni~

Medial: ftllf

High:

f'ra Shriglh
iItXaos ,et\!$UIII

.. ".' R~

'111'"

IlTA .80 (I m ..MIrlS)

T~ECENT
P~CE

- I,- ,-

"
"
,

20

1"111"

12

~--+---'.\-----j--+----+-:':':--I--~~+----+---I--f_-+--I--f_-+--+----j'

..

~~

~ TOt RE'I\.IM

-,

'.0

ZQ2tIl Pen:-nt
4~ atI_

2006
50
40
32

.,

1.0

tr.-d

5yr

3.0

-1D.8

55.1

_
Ralcorp Holdings was incorporated on 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 eVALlElIIP\B.IIC.
Jan. 19, 1994, as a subsidiaJ)' 01 the Ral..

..
29.10 30.-46 31.21 16.18 18.38 20.85 27.10 39040 .1.25 SIIIo
A
... 50
ston Punna Group (RPG). The subs~iary
..
..
.
2.88
2.82 2.39
1.07 1.58
1.95
2.42
1.4$
111 C
Row"' plnll
.. 00
was spun off from i1s parent on Mardi 31,
.
..
11i9
1.41
.98
.33
97
1.15
114
1.29
1.55 Elmilgsplflh
1.50
..
..
.
..
..
..
c
..
..
.
"
iii DW'dl Dlcl'd
III
1994, llith sh.rehold"",
receiving one l1IIa", f--..::+----'-+---'+--,-;rl~;;.+~.;.rl-~f_..;.;.+_~+___..c+___._.;rt___i~~~~J;=,=.c_+~~
01 the new company for each three RPG

1.13
1.99 203
.75
.78
.67
.81
1.l5
1.2> Cap1SFonding""III
us

.
.
4.16
4.88
3.26
8.69
9.69 10.61 11.13 13.00 14.50 BookYllulper. D
21.10
shares owned. 33,87~OOO shares were
issued in Rak:orp, al a price 01$15.00 each. f_"':':'+_"':':'+_"':':'h;;;'h;;;;'h~J--,,;~h:;:;;'h;;;;;'h;;;-hm-hmt;;~~s.:.~-.+~~
..
..

33.9'1"""332T
12.92 33.01 31.71 30.54 19." .....
" ... IC....... Sh. outsrg
" ...

p,,."

CAprrAL STRUCTURE .. of 1I3OI'It1


Total Debt S278.7 mil. Due In 5 Yrs $278.7 mi.
LT Df,bt $278.7 mi. IT ntel1ist $18.5 mil.
(TotallllBr85l caven.ge: 4.(1)
(42% of Cilpl)
Luses,

flU
2'2
'9.0
19.1
15.2
12.3
13.0
A'gAn.HIE....
IU
1.08
1.52
2.82
.99
117
.82.69
RMIlin PIE Rdo
.15
_.

Avg Ann' DiY'd '(!lid


Hi
I -...:.:.j...----::..:+-:..:.I-....::-+--...:.+-::.j-:..:.I-....::-+--...:..:+-".,::..ir,..,~+_cc.,+~~~~=-f_~'..j
t-

10.1

.m

..
..
.
..

870.6 002..8 981.0 1013.4 1027.4 534.1 582.9 636.6 809.2 1178.0
1240 SIIIu ($nil) ..
10.7% 13.7% ".6% 15.0% 12.3% 6.5% 102% '23% 12"
U"
'IlI O...bo Ii_
292
35.3 442
~7
4U
204.4
182
23.1
34.3
31.0
37.0 DepKldonllllllll
3112 51E
53.6 41.1 32.'
10.8 32.0
36.'
38.0
3V
4(5 "" ..... W
.37.6% 39.D% 39.O't 38.61
11.01 38.3% 38.11
37.6% 37.2% 38.0% .Jl8% mCOllltTaHltl
.
H'"
5.ni
5.4'"
4.61
3.2%
2.01
5.5'
5.7%
4.TI
3.3\
NtlProItMq_
.
.
5U
71.6
102.9
90.6
64.9
45.6
68.3
148.9
140
110 Working Clp'1 ($mil)
.
..
!l.3 389.' 385.' 316.6
.

.28
264.'
110
215 Long~T
... DobI_I~

..
474.4
1412
162.4
107.4 286.7
307.3
324.1
350.3
310
.us Shr.~ISmI'
..1003% 11.3"
11.0%
9.5% 3.8" 10.4% 10.1% 6.9"
7.~
7.5" RtU'nonTalIICIp'

10.9% 38.0"4 29.0% 302%


3.8% 10.4% 112"
10.8% 10.11% 1D.", RtVn on sb~
~
_.
10..9% 38.0"4 29.Q14 302%
3.B% 10.4% 11.2'10 10.8% 10.'" 1D.", Rt1IintdtD CGIIIEq

UncallttalizMt Annuall1!ntals $5.3 rril

1'"

PId SIoc:Iri Non.

"'Curmnon-stDc:t
ud8i101D1

29.909,674 Ihs.

IIIARKETCAP: $575 million (Small ClIp)


CURRENT POSIT1ON 1191
ZOOO &1JU11
Ca~u..)

ReceIVables
Inventory (Avg Cst)
Other

5J::
75.3
8..3
145.4

.J:'.uaeJi.Asst

53.:~

=c~able
Other

23.7

10tl
150.1
10.2
266.8
78.5
39.4

9[~
140.9
9.-4

248.J
66..5
39.6

no1 ~

..

..

..

'DO

Zool
(ended September
30th)
concluded. on a solid note for Ralcorp.
afdmrvt(p8'm} 1IY.... Un.
CD."
as fourth-quarter
earnings advanced 39%
~h FIow"
::
versus the year-earl1er period. The growth
Eami'lgs
__
-6..5%
14.~
was driven by a number of fadDIS, most
Divi:lends
_.
_.
Nil
notably the improved performance of the
Book Value
_.
18.5%
12.""
Ralston Foods business, which benefited
Fllcal
QUAR1ERlYSALESIS"~'" FUI
from new product Introductions and inDK.31 1Iar.31 Jun.30 SepJO ~I
creased
distribution to several key custom1998 137.2 147.1 143.3 155.3 582.9 eI'S. Too, the Carriage House divislon's re1. 154.9 150.3 154.4 177.0 636.6 suits oontinue to benefit from the acquJsI2100 204.9 173.2 1n.1 259.0 809.2 tlon of The Red Wing Company,
as well as
2001 0
0
G
313.9 1178.0from ongoing cost-reduction efforts within
2002 315 1'5
ZIO 350 1240 the division. Going forward, Ralcocp's
Asc:al
~GS
PERSHARE'"
Fill near-tenn
earnings prospects will llkely
~
Dee.]1 IlarJ1 Jun.30 SepJO ~I
depend on the oompany's ability to offset
1111
.14
.32
.40
.11
.97 the effect of increased competitive pricing
1199 .20 .34 .38 .23 1.15 pressures and higher energy and packag2DOO .24 .34 .43 .23 1.24 Ing costs.
2001 .20 .29 .48 .32 1.29 MeanwbUe.
a lower interest
rate on
2OD2 .r!
.40 .53 .35 1.55 Ralcorp's
debt should
help support
Ca~
QUARTERLYDIVI)ENOSPAID
Full bottom-line
growth. Ralcorp recently en.ndar Mar.PerJun.PtrSe ...~~.
v.... tered Into a new $275 mllllon
three-year
1197
credit agreement with a group of eight
1.
HOCASHD1V1>ENDS
banks
arranged
by Bank
One and
1J91
BBNGPAX)
Wachovia Bank.
The credit agreement,
2IOD
whJch includes an option to Increase the
2IOt
facllity by up to $100 million, replaces the
CUm!lntUab.
ANNUAL

RATES

Put

Past

106.1

Est'd ...

00

tg: Jig:

1:

BUSINESS: Ralcorp Holdings consists ~ Ralston Foods (35'" of


sales), II prodUClll" 01 privale-label breakfast ClilI'8iIII;Bh!Il'T'II8r
(29%), II maw d priviltlHab81 aiIC8'I 'lid cookies; NutJ:acller
(21%), a pmducer d private-label8lld vaUe-tnnd InD nuts: Carnage Hou. (15%), a manufad.Lnr d dn!ssiI1gs. l)'IUpl, pIieI,
anclsaUC8S. Also DlllmS 21.6% equly slK& iI Vail Repts, Inc. Ac-

"1
1dudes

FI!Cl!II yeer ends Septembw


DiUled egs. Prmary ..

3OIh.

[~'D..O'

IJIJI'I-f*UIing

THf PUBUstl:R

... ..,..1IpOlIIad.
f!i,

NOT RE$POHSBI.[loRNl'f
-*. ... 11'.....

HB All Di'f'dl to Nit Praf

12K

VG
2fD
ao
10.'"
11G%
118%
H'

qund Red W"'g Co., 7100: JImes P. UKlt!Il, 5100; Cascade


Cookie Co., 1100; ~n
Foods, 10J99. Has 4,900 liImpllJyees;
14,300 shanlhoklEn. O1IJdi". own 3.7% d convral; Shipi'D Capital Management. 13.4% (1:M1O pmry). CEO I PIllI.: JoI R
MI:heIslo. Inc.: MO. Address: 800 Mark8I: S.. , St. LDUlS,MO
63101. Telephone: 31-4-6n7000. tnt8met www.rab:Jrp.com..

company's
two
credit agreements
that
were scheduled to expire in early 2002.
The new lending agreement should help to
further reduce the company's interest e.xpense. which was already down 29% in the
September period. The company plans to
use the proceeds from the credit facillty for
general and working capital needs, 1ncludIng the acquisition of new businesses. Ralcorp has traditionally used acquisitions to
boost bottom-line growth. All told. we are
calling foc ean'llngs
to advance
by about
20% in fiscal 2002.
The company's
cost-<:utting Initiatives
.are proceeding
nicely. Ralcarp has
closed.
two production facilities In Baltimore
and San Jose. The closings are part
of an effort to rationalize the company's
production capac:lty and improve
operating
efficiency. Management
has also initiated
other cost reduction and efficiency studles
aimed
at Improving overall
profitabtllty_
This timely issue offers worthwhile
3to 5-year
appreciation
potential. Investors, however. may have to watt a Uttle
Jonger for the full effect of the costreduction efforts to reach the bottom line.
William G. Ferguson
NmIember 9.2001

lSO.05l; '01, $0.04, N8xI egs. I8port due $8.23IIhin.


(E) In rnibls. (F) Spun oI'f
CCllTlpany's Finandll8lrellgth
B
lan. (t) Speci;l1 one-ti'ne $0.05 a shlll8 tdnded IDa! lines 1/97. Fscal "97 dIdI pro Stock'w. Pil" libr:blll)
-- ... __ 76
diY.(ntIat8d 1Dspi1off) was paid 1/J1187.
fOlma, doesnl Ild. 1nnd8d food aps. (G)
Prica Growth PeniltlllCll
40
(D) Ind. in1angibles. In 00; $166.1 ml., Resbll8diglhSnoI.povidedinpt8Sll8lease.
~EandngSPr&lIcb.btIly
25
F...., 1JIIlI!Ii. is oltIinftI rr- ~
..... ICIbe niItIIe .. is p-.ltd 'IIiUIDul ~
rI any killl.
ERROIlS OR OMSSlONSHEREW.
Thii~
issri:ly 1Ir~
-'1'IIIIIl=
tioL n.r.I U!II!. No pari
I
I
I '.
: I':
II. ,
i1-:r ~
'*dNlit:. III at. bIL 11''''
b ~1IIiIg
III ~..,
~
1II11ftn1i1: .....
,na. ,..Dlka:t

bebre '97. 81
911...1 (Iossest. '95,
(SOA1t, '96, ($2.40); '97, $15.62; '98, $0.35;
CI lIDl. 'MIe lile NII5Ilba. m. AI m,tu~.
B

Fiscal

_.

1"55
IU"
6.G
1<1
.0%

10.9
8.5

13.3

93

15.5

11.3 .

23.1

22.4

32.8

12.'

15.5

18.0

33.3
17.5

25.8

21.6

15.6

14.6

22.5
18.1

..

...... ..

.'

'

'

..............

"."It .. /

.....

. .-....

1 yr.
3yr.
5 yr.

3.84

4.42

5.83

7.43

.13
~

~
.15

.13
.16

.20

~2

1~

~4

.....
1<.7

17."
10.

ill
17."
13'

UI

3.51

2.61

1m

~
"'.01
13.6
1~3
2.31

8.33

8.31

752

.24

.26

.26

~
3$

~
~

~
4~

"'.W
1. 1

'u.<J

3.0%

3.81

2ll""
13.9
1~
401

1J.0

1m

CAPITALSTRUCTUREaofll3GlO1
TotlilDelli $371.1mil. Du. lit sv ... $350.0mil.
LTDRill$371.1mi.
LTIrIteIa $25.0rnl.
(lTi1leresteamed:9.6x;lDtalinlMlStc:0vER9l1:

11.82 10.18 11.86 14.47 13.fi.t 23.38 25.99


~ 1~ 1. ~ ~ W ~1
M
~
1.13 1~
1S
1N
W
.26
.26
.30
.39
.48
..4!
.-480

15U

11.41
4
.5
5.5
38.4'
3.6'

2.1x)

(57" o1Cap'Q

13.8
81.8
6..5%
6.8,

PM Stock None

CommonStocll20.B71,485

shs.

(-43%of C8p'Q

MARKETCAP: $375 million (Small Cap)


CURRENTPOSrrlON
11119
2ODO BlJCWt

lllllJ..l

CaSh Assets

Receivables
r~
(UFO)

1.7
76.4
104.0

Other

2.6
97.0
148.7

4.1
101.3
136.0

162

17.3

14.5

198.3

265.8

255.9

Aa:ls PayabWi

28.4

32..3

32.0

DebtOue
Other
CUmin{ uab.

-.1 47.5
38.5
66.9 ----:m:g

Cumllll:Ass81:5

.3,

M
rn

ill

2ll."
15.J

2ll."
12.0

3.11

2.41

2.~

199.8
11.111
0
7.
9.5
37.9'
.71
~A
34.4
83.9
Ul'.
11.3'

219.9
15.41
8.8
14.4
39.3'
6.5'
W
19.6
92.8
13.5'

~
U2

".J:>
17.'

1m

5.0"

242.7
19.8%
9.0
23.1
39.4'
9.5'
~1
16.0
110.6
18.5'
15.5'
20.9'
9.8% 15.5'

.~

7m

fl

.048
~

1l~ 1~

"'.OJ
1.0

132

2.31

2.51

1.81

1.81

2.21

295.9
Z1.6'
102
32.8
38.2'
11."

281.5
21.91
10.6
32.3
37.7'
11.5'

543.5
19.0%
22.0
43.0
38.6%
7.91
117J
166.2
22.4.5
12.5%
19.1%
14.7%

544.6
17.5%
23.1
38.1
39.81
7.0'
1~A
148.2
252.6
10.1%

487.0
19.11
18.9
38.9
39.6'
8.0,
m m 1M7
2.9
22 192.3
135.9 160.0 189.4
23.8' 20.0% 11.6"
24.2% 20.2'
20.5%
18.6' 14.2% 15.3'

"'."

"'.99
11.'

15.11

11.11.

10.6
26.3
55.1

Z001 ZOOZ "VALlJElJIEPIlB ~c.


21.30 1110 s.Ia 1* III
m UO U5 'Cuh_~'"
1~
.J!
1.45 EImin;s per III A II
.48
.41
AI Dh'ds o.d'd per'" e
~
.75
.." Clp,s,.. .... ~ ..
1110
1115 14.50 Booll VIIut per'"
lO.JO
21.00 (;OIWIIDft
'5hsOU1S!.'; II
2ll."
,An,"","1lI0
10.9 ~_" __
n - u. RIII1tn PIE Raio
2.7%
- , An., Ilfy'; ViIId
598.2
f75
16.2% 13.'"
14.0lI
2
.10.0 13.0 Dopnd_ (lo>ll)
5.5
33.8
20.0
31.0 No1 Prollllnllli
40.3% 0.0% 40.0% InccIrM Tu b1I
5.6'"
lOll
Ull ."Proll ....
1~
393.5
273.9
l5S RItum anTotII Clip'
6.2% 5.0%
12.3% 7.0% 10.01 Rn.m on Shr. Eaui1v
3.5%
7.0% RItsIned 10 CCIInEq
B.l'"
50%
AI DiY'dslD ,.., PruI
28.61

710ao-'no
_' ' ' I ......

... 15
tl0

"0
AI
.15
10.15
21.31

12.5
.15

""m

.......

17.5%

...7.'"'"

21.
25D

'25
fD.5%

14.5%
f2.0lI

,'''

BUS"ESS: Reg.ll-Beloil Corporation manufacbes mechani:al


and eIecibJ pnxIuds. The Medlanal GlDlIpillites gall" drives
for rnateri;;J1-nandling systsns,. Innsrriuim, ITIiIIllllll yaln Ktuiltn
Iquil IInd gu-now-allllrDl SySfms, IInd marile hnsmiuioll! br inboatd mdDr bolls. n. EIecn:III GIOIIP, whicIJ
__
lorn the Mm;h '97 IIcquis. of Mahon EIedri::, produces

electJic mokn & gemntDn for use iI !II!!V8IiII indus. Acqd. Leeson
EIriK:.,
9KlO.'00 dep. rate: 7.9%.~
5,850.Has 1,229sIkhIdIs.
Owl'lBlShf;I: otfs. & dirs., 5.l%: Artis.ln PartnfQ, 8.7%; Manl\.ll &
Ilstey Corp., 8.6% Allil.nceCap., 7.3% (M>l Prm:y). elm'll., CEO,
& Pm..: Mnes L PDard.
Inc.: WI. Add.: 2UO StaIB St, Belol. WI
53511-6254. Tel: 608364 6600. Il'I18rn8tftIlIill-bebt.com.

ue

centage points by 200] due to reduced 01'deI'S and inventory. However, the benefits
reaped from consolidation relating to the
Leeson Elecbic acquisition should help
bolster operating marglm next year. In
addition, synergy savings through collaborated purdlaslng
efforts. alDng with
improved inventory logistics, are ramping
up.
We expect debt to be reduced steadily
over the coming 3 to 5 years. Our
projections suggest cash flow will increase
from about $25 mllllon this year to $60
million per annum during the 2004--2006
period. Most of these funds are earmarked
to reduce the debt incWTed in the Leeson
acquisition. MeanwhUe, working capital
wUl likely decline next year due in part to
inventory reduction .
'Ibese shares are ranked unfavorably
for Timeliness.
However, the stock. does
offer an attractive dividend yield along
with good 3- to 5-year appreciation potential. Our projections assume a retunl to
healthier economic conditions during the
2004-2006 period.
Joseph A. Beyrouty
November Z. 2001

rr.

r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--.::~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~"Ibe weak economy will likely continwill likely drop a total of nearly three perto

ean:ai.ngs

Nil"

1.4.

tCI Ned diYilend rneN1g about Jan. 25th.


Next u-dnt IIboui Mardl27th. Dividends payeble mid-Jan., ~., Jul. Oct.

(Dlln mlions .cljusIed lor met aplls.

Canpany"s Fmndd StrwIgItI


Stock's prtc:. Stllbiity
Price GnrwtII ,. ... istMIcI
earnings PredictabllIy

Cl lflll. VIIlle li1e Nli5IiIIQ. ~ AlI'IIJN'5 reer'IIIl. ra.! IIIIIeriII is olilIilIeII fnn -.eI
beie'IIlld Ia be RIiItIIe II1II ii p-.Ied MIIOIlI ......,
all MIJ U!d. _
THEPlBUSH.RISM)TRrSPONSIll.E10RNn[RRORSORCMSSIQfIlSH[RE.If.Tt6pu1l1ali:1nislb'kty"5IIIIs::liIn~NIlrcuN"ciaoLiItsnIIU5e..Nopll1

IIll.JIleIl'plDlllllzd.III5ml.IlaIIIIIII....,
pi'lllll, ~-=IlI""'1I"
lI5IIIIb 1J!IIl"IIiIi. ~..".
..... III1n:mi1: pIIbIi:IIira seni:e II fIIGdUd.

ill...,

10.6
13.6
20.2

1-===:::::-;,"=~--=-~-'-7-.,.-L-_.J.....,.~...,...,.J-,---;;L..--,'---=-...J-,-_--=-,..-,---"L,---!

-1
44.8
76.6

Pal Est'd ""'01


SY,,tD ......

1M

2ll.46 "'...
10.5 12.1

hurt Regal-Beloit's
sales and
for a few more quarters. The
favorable top-line oomparlsons year to
___
13.0% 17.0% 8.5"
date reflect the contributions from the
''Cash FJow"
15.0% 13.0%
5.S"
Eamngs
12.0%
9.5%
8.0%
Leeson Electric acquIsItion in September
Dividends
7.5%
9.0"'"
2000, for $260 mllllon. The attacks on SepBookValue
12.5% 16.5"
9.~
tember 11th have resulted In a greater
CaIIIUAR'IBlLYSALfS{11IIlj
F.II
slowdown in capital spending than pre.ncll:r .f.31 Jill' SlDJO Dec:.31 Y.,
viously antlclpated.
Regal-Beloit's Mell!18
137.8 139.0 1311.0 128.7 M3.' chanlcal and Electrical groups generally
1119
127.2 137.1 1423 1311.0 MoI.6 operate with small backlogs; most orders
20llD ,.26 lC.. 1311.5 175.7 59.~" are shipped within a month of receipt. On
20111 177.1 171.9 166.7 1513 175
the other hand. the company should be
20112
1111
f75
fill
fl5
710
able to take advantage of an ecooomic
e.1EARNINGS PER SHARE All
full
recovery in the U.S. The current consensus
end.,
.r.31 Jun.30 Slp.30 DK31
, ....
is that such a scenario will commence in
1l!18
.9
.55
.9
.9
202 the second quarter of next year. Also, the
,.
.C
.016
.45
.016
1.80 absence of some forms of goodwill
ZOCIO
.45
.45
...
.31
1.61
,
.28 .15
.22
.11
.13 amortization. a result of a change in accounting rules effective January 1. 2002,
20112
.2$
.JZ
.U
.Q
will boost earnings (but not cash flows) by
talQUARTER1.Y DJVI)EJI)S PAIl C
Full
about SO.30a share for 2002.
.nd., .f.31 Jln.30 Sep.3D DKJ1 Y.., The
company is in the midst of a
1197 .11
.12
.12
.11
..a restructuring
program.. Over the year,
1191 .12
.11
.11
.11
..a
,.
.11
.12
.12
.11
..a Regal-Beloit trimmed its worit fon::eby ap20lIl
.12
.12
.12
.11
..a proximately 10% and lowered the utllizadon of plant capaclty. Operating margins
2001 .12
.12
.12
.12
ANNUAL RATES Pat
,!~(PW!lh1
11Yn.

25.95
W

.... ".... -
........

"'" TOT. REll.IRN 1'D1

,",

II:

B
7S
45
65
11-.

ROGERS CORP. NYSEROG

I[lECENI
I PRICE

High:

6.2

low:

3.8

LEGENDS
12.0 I CI511

6.0

3.7

4.4
2.9

7.2
3.2

2900111l
lU)
.,
IRAOO 349(1<01'9

lU
12.8
8.1

15.8
10.9

14.5
10.0

:::~

1.1

50

47

10'r,'

10':

'.0
..0
tl'1lcMd 2.'

1Q21t1
Per-rd

'11""1-

11~

"34

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE IS ot711~1


Total Debt $9.1 mil.
Dlle In 5 Y... $9.1 mil
Uo.bI$9.1mil.
LTlntw:rnt$.5miU.
(L T I'IIwest earned: 352x;"1 irtllf1!st
CD\"IlI3.ge: 34.3.1)
(6% of Cap1)

P.nslon Uabiity None


Pfd stock None
15,638,867 shs.

(94% of Ca,O

IIIARKET CAP: $4.55 million (Small Cap)


CURRENTPOSmoN
1991
2000

19I1Ll

ca!tl

Assets
Receivables

Inventory (UFO)
00"
CUlTent Assets
Acds PayatM8

Debt Due

""""

CulT1llnt Liab.
ANNUAL RATES

...0-"'1
S
"Cash Aow"
Earnings
Dividends

Book Value

DMl
lID

45.3
18.0

42.0
23.9

Nil

1.,,1

,.

1,1"

........
....

"'""

1yr.
3.,.,.
5 yr.

36 lIur..

1985 1986 1987 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992


10.59 10,84 12.18 13.54 1428
15.41 14.78
13~
.56
.81
1.00
.B8
1.00
1.10
~3
.90
d.D2
.02
.07
.20
.2S
.08
.13
.19
m m m ~
~
m .02 .01
.95
.73
1.08
.72
.98
'.26
.93
1.11
4.21
1>4
3.15
4.03
4.41
4.43
4.55
4046
11.83 11."
11.9J "00
12."
1< ..
..
'15
162 10.6 ".
4J.l
lb.'
..
1.43
1.78
1.38
6.63
3.26
2.00
.5\
2%
.5%
.6'4
.5'
.5%
.5%
.6%

Common Stott

20.6
11.8

~ TOt RETURrII IIln

IrwtkutlONlI Decision.
....

23.4
10.3

ft.~
~

",'II

....,

23.3
12.9

2 08

REL\1M:
Pl RATKl.

lie .,:

182.4
7.41
11.7
d2

..
N'"

20.6
26.3
52.0
15%

N"'"
N"'"
N"'"

"'"

::;

9.56

9.50

1.04

1.19

.52

.11

.67

.33

2.16

lL"
9.8

.58

..

1231
7.0% 12.2\
6.1
1D~
6.1
2
.. .1%
.1% 5.4%
13.1
22.5
14.2
2'1
27.9
19.1
2.7% 17.5"
~% 239%
.,% 23.9\
53%

In.4

--

3.20

".w
11.7

.n

..

133.9
12.7\
6.7
10.1

5."1
7.6%
2.4.7
67
45.1
21.0'4
22.5\
22.5%

..

1996
955
1.32
1.13
.85
.92

9.83

.62
.411

,.."

.43
511

".Ol

15.;1

13.5

1.02

.85

..

140.3
13."%
5.1
13.'
15.01

9.3%
31.4

41
60.1
21.21
21.'%
21.8'

..

..

..

12.57
1.53
1.05

1.18

14.22.
1.46
.81

1.90

616

7.24

15.~
16.6
.96

S.l"
".1
.99

..

..

16.90
1.98
1.19

.93

16.44
2.60
1.69

1.51

1175

7.94

9.65

lIUIO

..

189.7
14.2%
6.6

216.6
13.0%

241.8
140%
10.4

13~
21.01
9.9%
33.1
3.6
T7.2

16.5

13.8
28.01

18.6

25.0%
'.7\
45.5

6.'"

17.8%

15.7"1.

16.1%

17.5%

42.0
13.7
110.2
11.6%
12.51.

18.1"

11.5%

12.5%

..

13.7

94.4

_.

..

-1D.e
26.3
55.1

150

US
HI

,...HI

.eo

17.15

....

7>%

33J

542

28.01

9.1
116.4
15.""
16.0%
16.0'

..

11.l1li

-2481
1U%
12.5
26.1
29.0%
10.8'
9.'
145.8
17.6%

1'.3%
18.3%

..

....

ZJ.55
170

2..

l"l,btl 15.
'3.'
19.5
.76
1.29

141..5
13.8%

..,

11.1
21U
11S5.a

"-"""

HH

30.0% 30.'"
7.'"
.'"
7..
70.'

7.'

"'

1ncoN, Tu RaIl
NI1 ""'II MIlQIn
WorIInp CIp'1Ilnl)
LonaT... 00bI1\IIII)

1.. Shr.-EQuity
IlnIi

10.0% 10.,", RIbIm 011 TWI tip'


10.5%
, ... " ............
EoultY
10..5% 10.0% RItINd III Carl Eq
NR
N' AI Dtw'd, III NIt Prvf

....41.
"...'""

..

'10
to

.lOG

,<0"
14.5%
1~'"
Hi

2 ..... .,""
3 "" lIl7!l6
3 ..... 1Il2r.1n

lWWIlESS

WID

TECHNICAL

:'t'

PROJECT1ONS
PriCi
35
25

r."

10.6

7.2
'.2

'.B
3.B

6 .

~d_

- .9=.. .

..,'" 101.'

1,,1. .,1

11'1 111
1

75
72

...

47832

single restaurant near the University of Tennessee's Knoxville campus. In '82, tho buse
ness was sold III MorTisooRestaurants. On
3lT19fJ, Morrison's shareholders approYllll
tho dis1ribulioo of i1s casual, fam~y dining,
and hea1fhcalll businesses 10 shrhldls; lour
shares of the new entity (renamed Ruby
Tuesday) lor ..... ry eght shares (adjus1ed)
of Morrison. Tho family dining and health
care businesses were spun off, 319/96.
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE _ ofll4J01
Total Debt$111.1 mil.
Du. i15 Trw S'3.6mil.
LT lnarest $0.9 mil.
LT Debt $13.1 mI-

(.II .. C.pQ

Laues, Uncapitalized Annual reofab $48.3 mil


Lil.b111y $13.7 mill in '01 s. $12.7 mI.

Pea.lon
iI'CO.

PId stock None

Common Stock 63,530,959 shs.


II ot1D/15101

CURRENT POSmoN

Inventory (F'IFO)
01h..Current AsSiBtS
AaD Payable

C..

\",C.PQ

(liid ClIp)

1991

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
--..
..
....
..
..
..
..
..
..

1992

"

..

..
..

..

1993

..
..

_.

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..

..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

1994

..
..
..

..
..

..
..

..

..
..
..
..
-..

..
..
..
..
..

199'

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

.,

18.6
1.17

IU."

..

13.5
.78

".'1

...

".1

..

.3\

620.1 655.'
11.~ 1Z.4'4
34.8
38.6
19.4
25.0
32.8" 35.5"
3.8\
3."
1133.3 d33.6
16.1
78.0
191.3
223.6
9.'%
9.8\
11.2'10

71H
11.4\
39.5
19.1
35.4\
4.1\

B.'"
9.8%

..

112%

..

10.2

10.6

10.6

BUSfIIESS:

6.9
9.'
56.0
945

6.8
0.3

7.9
9.5
28.6
56.0

S8fYice. aasual dinng ImtaLnnts II 26 Na'theast, Soul!, Soulhust, and Mid-Atlilrrti:: slates (aID 9HI01). The rmlaLr.lnts featlll1l
wi:!e vansty of menll itsrs, with an IIVflnIge chedi: of lIItlund $10 .

....
37.7

27.0
'5..2

26.0

Inc. operaEs 384 RUby TUfl6di1y fill-

Also frandliillls 170 unis, incl. 14 inn. C~

18. of 41 Am-r-

~O an Cd and 21 T.~rllx-Io(u IlIIStil\"nts {FY '00 ... $106.8


Curren! Liab.
74.1 Ruby Tuesday began fIscal ZOOZ(year
--sa:4
ends June 4th) on a strong note ...
ANNUAL. RATES
Pu. Esf'd ... 01 The restaurant chain, which is a leader in
11,.....
'Yn.
'" CIlOIgI (po'",'
the $10.00 (average <heck) bar and grill
-- 6.5%
R8""' ....
.. 12.0%
segment of Lhe casual-dining industry,
"Cash Flow"
12.5"
.. 21.5% 20.0"
Eamilgs
reported a 30% improvement in flrst~
Dividends
NMF
quarter (ended September 4th) share eam.. 6511
21.,",
Book Value
logs, In $0.26, which was $0.02 better than
F.,
REI'ENUES (I
we had fOrP.c:ast.Company-owned sites
Yur QlWlTER!.y
oghr ..... P... F....... "I}'P .. FiKai
_r
e...
prod.uced. a 15.4% increase in revenues,
19911 U4.1
UO.3 181.6 185.4
711.4 with average-unit volumes rising by 3%,
1M
US.1
U5.8
722.3 while sales advanced. 2% on a comparable.
184.7 183.f
200D 195.3 193.8 209.2 199.2
197.' store basis. Meanwhile, the franchise part789.6
2001 205.0 196.7 191.5 196.4
,I ners. who operate some 170 Rub..v Tuesday
2002 203.0 113
ZfII
locations in noncore markets. both here
F.,
FlocoI
EARtlNGS PER SIfAREA."
and abroad (14 unlls) , continued their
Yu, soUd performance during the quarter. as
1: wgPerNov.Plr Flb.Per IIIf Pe F'_
.13
.42 they achieved. a 2_8%gain in comp sales .
1198
.07
.13
1.
.16
.54 . .. but prospects ahead are a bit
.09
.18
.n foggy
2100
.16
.13
.22
.21
following the telTOrlst acts of
.91
2001
.17
.26
.20
.28
September 11th. and the continuing
.26
2002
.:' .32 .n 1.10 economic
downturn. Ruby Tuesday, in
QUAR1'ERLf
ONIIENOSPAID"
FilII fact. might be a bit more vulnerable than
c
end.r MuJ1 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Yother chains. because
40% of its
.. some
..
.llf7
company-owned restaurants are in shop.045
199B .0225
.0225
ping malls, which have stead.lld;felt the ef-- .0225 -- .045 feets
.0225
of a cautious consumer. n the other
.045
200D .0225
.0225
hand,
RTs menu features a number of
.. .0225
2001 .0225
56.0

49.9
151.8

45.3

....

45.1

.......
~""
'2.""

0-

"....

011.'"

"'

:~

I.

0-

---

, ,

----

2000 001F 2002


12.49
12..9Z
'UO
1.43
H8
1.15
.91
.71
1.10
.05
.05
.05
.98
1.53
1.~
3.72
4.50
11.
.7
132
".1
'62
.85
J2
.88
.3\
~\

1118
1.19
.04
.05
1.13
3."

."

712.3
13.6\
39.4
36.5

797.5
14.6'

36.2\

36.0\

...
".5

5.S'

d57.3
.6
219.6
21.'%
10.3\
19.0"'"

~.".....,

"'"
,.7
'~.
'2'
'~.
70.7
'~.

30.

789.6
15.6'
34.4
592
35.81
7.5'
d2tO
152
284.3
20.0\
20.8"

19.8""

" " "

eYALUElIIEPIIII ItC.
R.VII1I1eS pII' Ih A
"Cuh __ ,.111
Eamingl pit .II "Ill
Div'dl DKI'd per Ih C
Cop'l SpoIIdillg,.1I1

Soot 'r'IIue,..1h

It05

U,

1.10
.01
1.50

.n.

'Us
,t,.

Avg Ann' Div'd YIIkI


100 Rftllluu ($rill) A

-'"

11,",

AYIl An.'1
R-.tm

:snauu1lt II""

orIIIlOn

.It

PIERda

I ..............

35.0 0_01"'1""'
710 Not Pm111,oIin
35.Sll IncantI Tu RIll

1.1"

Not Plott IIugIo


W_g
CopII"".'
250 ..... ,f"'" Oobt (""",
'15 5llr.-EoOOYllnllIi
11.0% RIIIum OIlTatII CI:p'
20."" ............ e.rlt,
fl.n RetainMl to Cen Eq
Sll AI DiY'ds tD NIl Prof
d3Q.Q

'u
1.05
.35
17.0%

43.0
120
35.Sll
lUll
,1'U

35.0
175
17.0%

,17.n
..""
'"

mil} DlI 1'121..00. labor costs: lIbt. 31% d lIM. '01 depr2C. rate:
7.3%. Has 15,600 full-UJlll .nd 12,900 pit. fII'IlIloye8s, abl 5,700
shrhkln.
& dir. own 3.'% of OJI'IlII'Qn; Weslptwl: Ass8I: Mgrrt.,
8.2% (&'01 proxy). Chllftnan & CEO: SamIl&I E. Beallll. ITIC.:GA.
Addnlss: 150 West Church Avenue, MaryviIe, 1lI 37801. Tillephone: 86S-379-5700. 1n\1m81: www.JUbyluesd.y.am

err.

lower-priced offerings and specials. that


should appeal to conswners looking for
values. Also, frequent menu revisions (the
latest at the end of October) enable the
company to flne~tune its food presentation,
which helps attract repeat business. In all,
we expect fiscal 2002 share net to climb to
$1.10. a gain 0121% rompared to the prior
~
Our tentative earrt1ngs forecast for
2003 is S 1.30 a share.
Ruby Tuesday continues to strength
en its position in the casual-dinin:
sector. We expect the company to ad
around
50 company-owned restaurants
this year, most of which will be operated
under Rrs successful manager/partner arrangement. Too. we look for more-qualified
franchise partners to be brouJht on board
to nm an expanding group
restaurants
in noncore U.S. markets and overseas.
RTs long-range goal is a 50-50 balance
between owned and franchised operations.
These shares
remain
timely for the
year

ahead.

But, at the current quota-

tion, the stock has below-avera~e appredadon potential to 20042006. espite the
solid outlook for profits over that time.
Maurice Levenson. CFA December 14. 2001

....... rm T"",. oft""1}' Erl "oman. boo." 116,321; '00. 15j.""


9, Iwg. 6. (Oll",,~~
JO, ltartrng '01: pri:lr)'llilill"S endId on Sun. or egs. dUll mil-Jan. (el Initial divd decI. 1/98. inti
In "01: $7.B m", 12jJsl'I".
[)iv'cIs pail ."i-Innually'.
Next div'd ~....
~n
mi., ad~ for stock apIts. (F) Ind. AmBr.
mll-Jiln. NeJd ex dille.bout Jan. 23. Approa.
ilnd Tm's up III dat9 rAsalll, 11121100.
CI ZlIll. YaIlIe lile ~
.. AI ~'
reen.d. FKlIIIl ...
~ uund Inn ~
bIIilMlI to be miItR IIIlII is p-lIIIided .....
wlllHlies III
UM:I.
1H[PUM.JSK"lIISI)TR
PONSllll..E ORINtEJlROllSOROMI~HrRrIN.This~KllI'i:I1larsmoibw'J-'I\IIL"""'.""""'_.
put
" ," ~
nsIII. ..
Ilf~
illI1)'
II *DlIIIi:.,....,.
--.iDe II prllducl

1I'iItd.1IIIiawIi:.~""."" ~.

.......
... -

104.6
315.6

"~rrt .....,,...

(A' F.... r _

Sa Ind. tanchis8 i1corre. (B) p~


thrDugh "96; dlllMd dII". '96 dltil is pm

20

!t

'.1\
d37.5
d32.0
65' 16.8
211.2 221.8
11.2" '2.911
13.7" 16.5%
13.0% 15.'%
5%

91.4101

Ruby Tuesday,

.,.

2.

12

..-

1996 1997 1998


,.25 10.85
U8
.78
1.05
.90
.
18
.35
..
..
.02
1.56
1.04
1.00
,,2<
2.83
3.16

......

---

..

50
40

"" TOT. RETURtl11101

ZOO,

35.3

o."Doo

Olh,,,

., -

.'

2000

11IIlL'

c."'
.......
Receivables

,.I

, ...

Percent 11.'
all.,.a

,~
48
.
,'"
Ruby Tuesday began operaUngin 72 as a
73

- --. - -- -

fti::R!:I ~

Jf."MJJ",

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
228
1 9 3 2 3 7
115100320
Institutional Decisions

Pric:. Range
2DD6
200'

eo
eo

l:ao~l
13"
+15%
.."

lIIARKET CAP: 11.4 bilion

ra.t
20 ..

21.7
'3.3

Ann'ToIaI
Re\Im

GallI

B7

16.6
7.B

p 511

lruider Dee.ions

....:=
....::"1

11.0
B.2

.. ReIIMPn;e~
2.. ,,,* w
l.for-l~!IIDO

lET" .11 O.DJ....... d)

2_

High:
Low:

LEGENDS
11.0 I C61

CENI

IFPRICE 21.651~ro 19.7(=J~)~Jri>1.O41~ 0.2%

RUBY TUESDAY INC. NYSERI

:10

Stock'a dell SbIb111J


Price Growth PerUItncI
Eamill. Pndc:tlbilitJ'

I'.

15
90
90

:11:

11-,

2 Rli.edllMl
3 N!'I1/271JJ
2 REedl1/Wl

lWEUIlESS
SAFETI
TECHNiCAl

2.for' ~
Z-hJr,.

Z5

..S.
-...:::.. "'.

11'N~J

~ND

55

..

..h.....
I.......

18859

YS.

...

MARKET CAP: $'700 million (5mal1 Cap)


CURRENT POSrrlON

Current Asssts

358.9
223.3

OIl""

43.9

Aats Pa)'llble
De .. OUo

""""

CulTBnt Liab.

Pat

"'1

Sal_
"Cash Flow"
Elllmi'lgs
Dividends
Book V ....

363.2
208.'

341,3
234.0
2.7

33.'
41

-1!:!
""'.4

5Yn.
6.5%
10.0%

.~,.

Y.,
..,.

60.7

212.5

Put

1IYr:L
5.5%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%

300.'

73.9
248..
312
3.7

238.9

ANNUAL RATES

d ........

.6

240.9

.......

Est'd 'H-'DI

7~%
8.0%
8.5%

QlJAR1B1I.T SAlfS ~ IIIiIj


kMc:Per ..... Per Jun. r s.p.Per
617.6 616.3 620.5 633.0
109!1 6521
645.6 638.6 690.5
2000 665.5 6623
6629
6721
2001 715.0 691.9 7023
634.1
2002
90
II. 90
705
FIoaI
EARMlGS
PER
SHARE
A.
Y., ~.Per .T.Per Jun.Per StpJ'e
.26
.14
.22
.28
'108
109!1
.27
.27
.26
.26
2000
.26
.29
:l1
.26
2101
.14
.26
.27
.25
2002
.21
.11
.21
~7
QIWll8lLT
PAIDC
C'"
enllar r.31 Jun.30 SeD.30 Dec.31
1917
.Oll
.08
.Oll
.08
1998
.08
.08
.Oll
.Oll
1M .08
.08
.Oll
.09
2000
.09
.09
.09
.09
2101
.09
.09
.09
.09
(AI P'on' on ""So ... , .... _

4.5"

5.""

5.511

H"
5.511

..

FIoaI

Y.,

E ...

.-

2467.4
262A.6
26828
2743.3

..

2710

FiacaJ

Y.,

1.00
1.08
1.10
1.03

0_

UD
Full

Yoa,

...

."."""""h~7;fuI,_

Cl 21D1. 'GIlle Iile ~


ruE PUBUSHfR ISNOlR

fI_..,. ~

17.2

Targllt

Price Rilnge

'.8

2004

2005 2006
40

.. ",
..

.".

111..lhl

1111

30
25
I

.32
.32
.33
.36

79.1
74.5
133.6
10.3'
11.5%
7.9%
31%

15691
26.'%

1132.5
16.6%
6.31
6.'%
135
138
30.8
332
38.61 39.3%
1.91
2.0'"
98.4
95.3
88.9
96.1
155.4 274.1
10.01
9....
121% 12.1%
IUS'
8.5"
29%
30lI

18
12

10

..

..

1908.4 2070.8
26.6% 26A%
5.41
5.9%
139
139
319
39.3
36.5' 33.7%
1.7% 1.9%
86.3
679
104.2 110.
291.1 3162
10.2%
9."
1Q.91~ 12.4'
1.5%

. ... .'

"".'.'

..

8.8'"

2002

53.43
49.36
2.43
2.28
1.02
1.00
.31
.32
8.11
8J2
46.60 4655
1H
11.1
.14
91
1.8%
22%
2142..5 2300.1 2481.4
29.6% 30.0% 30.'%
6.1%
6.7%
6 . "
134
144
138
427
41.1
46.6
31.0% 33."
33.8%
2.0'4
21%
1.91
65.1
889
67A
46.11
1.06
J2
16
1.4.7
46.46
13.5
.85
21%

1592

t89.9

191.4

346.9

3805
9.6%
125%

.ell)}
9.1%
11.4%
7.S"
32%

9.6'"

11.3%
8n
26%

8.6"

ican & Efltl, Inc. (12%. 24%), a rnanuhld:LnJ and dirtribuD of indUsGIJ ..mg ttnad, wlh manufacUWIg ops. WIN.C. and eight
fDI8ign aJUnDs. The Jordan Graphi:s, Inc. sUbsi:!. was IOId ...

56.51
251
tOll
.33
9.55
46.45
17.1
91
1.8%

58.04
2n
1.10
.36
10.23
4611
'1.3
.81
27%

...."" "-.......

~TOT.~M11

1996 199~1

31%
m
3'%
BUSINESS: Ruddick Corp. is a hoIdng al. wlh two wholl'l owned
subsi:liari!ll: Harris Te&tBr, Inc. (88% of FY 'U1 sam, 16'4 cA operatiIg pn:Rj, a sou1heas1Bm rega.l !IlJPI!IIlWt1l. mail; and kMI

'<25
215
1.03
.36

lIO
4UI
13.4
.74
26%

2624.8 26828 2143.3


30.4% 30.9% J1.n
6.7% 6.8"
147
156 ...
137
30.1
51.0
47.9
37.71 39.6% 39.0'4
1.9% 1.81
19%
100.4
120.0
1326
198.5 125.0 156.4
445.4
443.1 473.0
9.0%
8.5%
lOll
10.8Y. 11.0%
11.4"
8.0,"
7.0'4
1.3'
33%
35%
30%

"

'11.15
21'
1.10
.X
10.35
4UI

mo

-10.8

12'

.13.7

10.

cYA1.UEUNEPJB
SlIts pII' sh A
Cutl fIow"pII' III
Earnlnlls pII" Ih II

'"."
ItC.

Div'd.DKI'dp"'1h

Salul~I'

".

J1.O% GraullfV
7.0'4
145 Nund:IIr of SIms
50.0 NilProIt (~I
3l5lI IncaIu Ta RIll
Nil Pratt .. .-,

""""""

"

...
UO W_o

CIp'lllnoill

155 1.ong7.......
.."

800k_pot'"
ComrHII Ski 0utsl'1I
Avg Ann'l PIE Rdo
RIIatIYt PIE Rdo
AVI! Ann'l Div'd Y"1IId

Sh,.-_'~I

'.0'4 RIUn on TaW C.p1


10.'" RftIm ClI'I Shr. Eaum
7.0'4 Rnifttd to Con Eq
AI Dlv'dl 10 N.t Prof

""

lJ

7135
115
lA5
.42
.110
401
110
-15
1/%
335IJ

JU"
7./%
110
70.0

JU"
1'"
ZJ5
155
110
10.'"
11.0%

U"

""

Jan. of 1996. Assets tcm llrreacIs USA W8IIl 8CQ. in June of 1996.
Has abt. 21,000 shal8hold8n;
20,000 employees. Offi ...
& dnc1m own 11.4'4 cI corn.; T. Rowe PriaI, 20.8% (1WD Prm:y~
Chai'man: AIiIn T. Dickson. Pr8s.: ThornIIs W. DI:kson. tnc.: North
Carorria . .Adchss: 1800 Two Fi'5t Union CemBr, Ctwrbnll, N.C.
28282. Telephone: 704-3n5404. WebSil: _.rvddi:imrp.ccrn.

tlJe industry Is widespread and shows no


Ruddick Corporation's
fourth-quarter
results were a mixed bag. (Year ended
signs of easing.
Management
has taken a number of
September
30th.) Hacrls Teeter (HTJ,
Ruddick's
supennark.et
subsidJary. steps to fuel ~wth
and improve
Ru dick recently closed 26
reported solid comparable-store sales. up profitability.
2.5% over the same period last year. The HT stores in Georgia and South Carolina.
company's promotional activity and mer- where its presence was not l~
enough
chandlslng programs seem to be paying to generate meaningful scale e dendes.
off. In addition, margins at HT expanded New-store building plans have been cut
significantly. thanks to ongoing 0051- back. and the company has decided to
reduction measures. Ruddick's texilie and focus only on markets where it already has
thread manufactwing operations at its a strong competitive presence, rather than
American and Efird (A&E) subsidiary.
trying to build in new areas. Meanwhile.
however, have been hurt by the economic RuddJck closed one of Its sptnnlng plants
slowdown. since consumer spending has and consolldated the produet.1onto another
eased and the demand for thread has plant to boost operating effidendes. And
sJackened. Indeed, the A&E division Lhe company hopes to Increase Its market
reported a 19% year--over-year sales share outside the U.S., where Its customdecllne in the fourth quarter. Increased
ern are now manufactwing appareJ. Durapparel imports also contributed to the Ing the fourth quarter, It compleled the
weak results. Meanwhile, lower volumes constnJ.ction of a new dyehouse fadllty in
and competiUve pricing pressures are southern China, which has already begun
hurting
A&E's margins . All told. we sample production.
remain cauUous In the near lerm and TIlls timely selection offers little longdon't think that the company's results wtll tenn investJnent ~peaI. as its capitalimprove much over the next several appreciation potent!
out to 2004-2006 is
months. While the recent perlonnance at below the v.uue Line median .
HT Is encouraging. the softness in the tex- Jennifer L. Wagganer
NOveInber 9. 2001
h '96, """" ,_
. .oon.... ex _.bout Doc. '01' .. _....
C ... p ..... , ... _
........
8.

T8CL1Ting imms: 1rJ, (14jt, '01, (51.05). Had


eamilgs repat due MfIy Feb.
(CI NuI ............
.".bout ..... 2OIh.

idend Plymerrt dates: JlInu;wy 1. April 1, July


1, .nd October 1.

(DII._,
_ .. _.....
be'" .. i5 JIlMIed.lllllUl ..-its d

AI ~
resIMld. FIllIIIIIIIII!riII
i5 dIllillelllrlllll
!IIIKe5 bliewl:llo
SIIlE QRNnfRRORS
QR ClIIISSIONSHrREIN. TlIi5~i$sWfJiar~_._.-ml.iIQmII"'~pM
dIcnni:: ....
III ~Of
.....
.,....II -.::hni:~..a

__ *M.'--"'.",,n.m.

20

- --

- --

,IIr ,..

lOll"

"

1992
1993
1994
1995
34.02 31.63
41.11 44.65
lAl
1>2
1.55
1.18
.10
.68
.14
.6'
10
11
11
.25
5.51
5.95
6.82
6.18
-46.12
46.04 46.35 ~.31
13.0
14.4
14.1
125
.79
.85
.06
.64
1.3% 21%
22%
24%

,I}.....

quart.. FlIICa!yur ends on Sunday cbs8S1 to


Sapl3Olh.

181_

15.8
10.3

1 ".

1.81

III3Oo'lIl

9.'

'4~
76 ..

23.0
15.1

23.0
15.0

,,,.
,,,.

S 18.8

(74% af Cap"Q

CClllllllon Stock 46,311,000 sIlL

223.7

13.3

,1.'.

Pfd. stDck NoI1ll

lfTV8ntory (UFO)

21.4

Percent ".5

P.nslon UabllitJ $13.8 milion in '00


milDn n '99.

Receivables

15.4
1D.6

."

1990
1991
36.11
3213
1.34
1.25
.54
.59
.16
.19
4.65
5.05
39.32 46.00
126
11.0
.94
.70
26%
2.9%
,4n.9
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE a. of 91JCM11
Total Debt $159. 1 mi. Due In 5 VIS $4.0 mil
25.6%
LT Debt $156.4mill.
LT Internt $15.0 mil
61%
InduCSlls $3.4 mil capitalized leases.
131
(Total ~
covenge: 6..lb:)
(26%"'Cap~
26.8
LAues, Unc:apitlrlDd Annual nlR1a1s $60.9 mill.
38.0'4

~lLJ
......

9.4

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
24.79 24.04 26.01
29>2
34.64
.15
.60
.85
1.03
120
.33
.47
.35
.38
.43
.16
.10
.11
.14
.11
4.18
299
3.17
3.46
3.60
35.58 38.16 31.35
31.39
37.55
124
lOA
10.4
120
10.8
.14
.71
.60
.90
94
28%
25%
27%
21%
3."

Ca

7.8

.. .....

"
"

"

..

....

ZQr.'

18031

14.1

9.'

,.

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000 000 000
00000
0 000
Institutional Decl5ion.
51
31
17606

'11.5

7.4

i1di:Ifeo' rftSiorl

."

............

1m.,

11.9

'.0

..'

Insider Decision.
OJf

10.8

7191
ll'm

AM' TDtII

PriCI

'.7

LEGENDS
5.51"'C.5Ilr __ p~
- - ReIIW~ PIa ShnJf1

.. ..... 'm

2Q04.06 PROJE~~~_

........
..,

low:

8E1A .&5 (l.llll- ....lUI)

IWPRICE

7.'
4.'

High:

15.251~oo14.4(=': ltO ~J%O.84~ 2.4%

CENT

RUDDICK CORP. NYSE-RDK

_.15ed

StDck's Price St.b11ty


Pra Gmwtb Pe"istance

7S
40

~
ki'Id.

II ~

..,

: II:

II'

RUSSELL CORP. NYSERMl


TIoIEUllESS

SAFIY

3 "',",,"
4 ,-"nIlOl

TECHNICAL

l..oiRll'dlCi1m1

High:

31.0

law:

16.0

36.9
26.0

32.6
24.0

31.3

PricI
G*I
Return
",,'
40 .
36"
25 +110% 21"
Insider Decisions

~:235~l

22.0

':.

''''

8<

15857

"
"

15927

33.'
18.0

12.'

.h

.'

....

....

11111

.. .,:

"

11llli

',II'

..

11"'101

..
.

.QlIt1

"

"

"'1'1

1'-1,

"I

'

'.'

, r,
'I

,.

..

"'"
""'"
-20.5

.......
~..

-SJ.7

8<2

"" TOT. RE1URIII1DlD1


P.rcwnt

53 shar_
48 tra~

1",

4.0-

3".

2.0-

16758

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990~91 1992 1993 1994 19i "'1
17.67
19.83 22.03 23.01 V.G1
29,77 32.10
33.68 3322
9.74
11.16
1>2. 13.16 17.02
3,44
3,38
212
291
3..49
3.68
3,15
3.53
1.69
1.85
216
218
',01
1.25
1.68
1.51
1.99
1.19
1.96
211
1.48
1.18
1.1ll
.14
1.08
1.11
1.36
.32
,,"
,16
29
.34
.39
. 2
.15
.19
23
.so .53 ,56
'2
2,81
,91
U 2.94
1.97
261
2.86
3,00
285
.77
.!16
221
22.
200
8,95
11.29
5,55
5,33
12.39
13.97
14.54
15.84
1.16
6.55
16.34 17.87 19.25 17.31
40,43
40,81
J:>.SZ
40.51
3921
38.12 38,DS
40."
40."
39>7
3'.'"
13.8
14.1
14.0 14.1
18.1
n.o 11. 1',9 2O.J 13.6 21.0 22.5
112
11'
1.09
1.04
1.19
1.03
1.00
.!16
.6S
1.21
1.17
J11
.95
JI4
JI4
1.36
1,.~
1.31
1.2l\
1.3~
UI 1."
21~
1.1%
1.110
1.9\
1.3'
1,'~
1."
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as of 11JlMI1
604.6 899.1 930.9 109U 1152.6 12442 1228.2 1160.1
Total Debt 1498.9 mi. Ou. In 5 YB $498.9 mi.
20.9\
22.9\ 21"
15.'1 162~ 15.7" 18.0'
19."
LT DebtN~
LT tnUtlStNY
662
67.0
7-4.4
lU
56.6
68.0
722
60.'
Ind. $6.95 nil. capitaized leases.
18,8
421
129
91.6
56.'
".1
'22
(LT Interest eamld: 2.6r, lotal ifIten!st OOYtngB:
362~
38.31 31.~ 3UI 41.3'
2.b)
(49% of Cap"Q
31.-4" 36'~
36-"
04.4, 3,6~
lH .... Uncapitalized None
1.2l\
6.61
4.1'4
9.''1
1-"
Pen.lon Ulbility None
278.0
310.3
438.1
412.6
501.4
285,'
435,'
255.'
180..3 185.
163.3 1442
287.9 255.9 360.6 323,0
pfd Stock None
587.7 628.1 632.6 619.8 665.6 61-4.8
S09.1 510.6
9.3"1. 11.8'" 10.1% 11.214 1.D'l\ 9.9% 6.5%
5.8'
Common Stock 31.9fi1,003 shs. {51%ofCBpQ
as af8lMl1
11.2'4
125'4
6,6'4 12D'l\
6.2'4
6J1'4
12"
MARKET CAP: $400 million (Small C8p)
9.2'4
51\
36>
8.6'" 11.9% 9.1% 9J1'4
'.6'4
CURRENT POStnON
IlI3Do<Il
22~
21'4
3S'4
24~
2''4
36'
il,BJ..1
.2
BUSINESS: RUSSIlilICorp. IS 8 vtrti::a1t1 negrDld designer. manu
'.1
ca
""' ...
ReC8lVables
191.8
198.6
258.' fadlnr, and mark.eB 01 IBisure apparel, iIlhleli: uniftmls, .nd
Inventory
(LIFO)
387.8
430.5 ighbreighl. woven fabrics. ConYerts nIW fbI"S inb fabric:l and
30.9
Othe'
26.'
'2.'
About 90'" of sales in
CulTent Assets
640.1
737.1 )'iIrnS for IISI in b own flli5hed ~
615.1
gannlnts
Fe( .peIts .nd reaaatD1 actiYliBs. Sels dir&cI" to
AI:;cts Payable
151.4
133.6
73.0
reliiIilln
and
10
SCf1Ien
prirrlln.
Clodibond,
8189; GIIl'le, Inc.,
DeblDuo
39.3
498.9
21.4
80.7
68.0
0Ihe'
- - Russell
Corporation's
second-half
CulTent lJIIb.
155.1
168.7
632.S
eandng5
recovery failed to materiaJPut Est'd ... OO Ize. After a disappolnUng spring. Russell
ANNUAl RATES Pill
11YI1.
d .... (po'"'1
'I'n.
lnltlated some new f1eecewear programs
Sales
8.5%
5.5%
5.5"
''Cash F!ow"
and attempted to expand its business with
3.0'4
.5"
E8rnilgs
.5'4
-1.5'1.
7.5"
Wal-Mart and K-Mart. Management hoped
Dividends
NMF
7.5%
5.5%
these measures, coupled with a $75 milBook Value
.5'4
1.5'4
3.'"

''''

"...
1.7'

....

7.'"

''''~

... ....

,..

......

3.62
1.62
.56
1.63
16.74

:15.1.

38.17
3,66

21.

u. u.
.so .U
1.86
u.

32

.."

2<2

31."
3."
1.4.
.11
135
IU.
>Z..

SIIeI pi!' III It

CuII FJow'" per III


ElmklII' per III A II

Div'ds DIc:I'd pi!' III c.


SpoIIdiog poroll
Boen.lulpor
oil

C"",

20
18

12
10
8
8

f-

f-

0U6
U.1>

o.
~4/I
.>D

U.

16.49
15.15
2O.2D
J1.90
>Z..
COIWIOn 5hs Olrtsflil U
3>81
20...
9.
Ayg An" PIt_
IH
11,'
.65
.60
R-.nn PrERdo
1-",
3.D'l\ 3"
AYg Alln' DiY'd Vltld
fl48
1200 WI. ($nil) It.
11.22 1211.6
'UD
16."
15."" IU"
I''''
.. .1
47.0
63.9
~(lnml
55.0
62.1
4/1.
m
Ho1 Pro" 1"'"'1
18.4% 36.11 3~'" 31.'" 1ncoII. Tu RItt
4.81
15%
.Il ...........
5.'1
W_g
Cop1 (lnl)
468 .
411.4
115
ISS
(lnII)
3641
ODD t.ongT .... _
3n.9
515
.,,,,-_
llnlli
.90
535
549.3 525.9
ID5
LOll R8IIIrn an 10lil c.pl
7.3'4
8.5% 11.",
1.'"
10.0'4
11.8%
LOll R_
....... E~
,-",
8.4'4
6.6'"
I.'" Rmined 10Cea Eq
11.'"
35~
29'4
lOll
1'" AI D1y'illD N-' Pn:If
12193; DeSolo Mils, 484. '00 dep. 1iDl: 4.s'l.. Has 16,540 empIs.
and about 8,000 stoctholdEn. RlISS8I FoundilllJn and Trusts conIroI 18% of corrm;JI'l stock; ~
din!lt'tas and IIIllnaglf'l,
V";
(4101 Proxy). Channan. Pl'IIIi:lent, & CEO: John F. WIlI'd. Inc.: AI..
Add.: 3350 RiY8I'WDDd PIri:way SuiIB 1600. Atllma, GA 30339.
Tel.: 678-742-8000.ln1rilrTIet: www.russelcorp.a:m.

..---...

-,::

...

Ill"
....

....
3l'"
"

....

..

..

., (T."
~'"

'"~

'"

....

2002 CVAl.UELlNENI~IIC.
34.81

"",.

'10

",

Tarv-t Price Range


2004 2005 2006

20.8
11.0

22.'
12.'

25.1

ixbt:J ~niJn

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional Decisions

25.0

50

"'.., ,...,

lIfdiil\:

38.'

50
50

DJFM,.MJJA

''''
.5.

33.8
23.1

"'tIo;h FIlW' P m
ReIIM PrQ 5lrmglh

....

~
.10 {tOOUarteIl
2004-$ PROJECTION~.
Ann'TaIaI

40.4
27.8

36.3
19.8

12.001~m 9 8 (',,;in! 17.0U) WR1%O.551~ 1.5%

LEGENDS
1JJ

WA

....

jFeEN!
P~CE

11'"

""

--

We"ve cut our estimates. By matching


competitors'
discounting,
Russell has
gained market share in the T-shirt and
sport shirt categories. Although a lrice
hike has recently been implernente , we
don't have any amfidence that it will stick..
Hence, we've cut our share-net estimates
Uan restructuring
of certain operations,
for 2001 and 2002 1.0 $1.25 and $1.45,
lllIAR1BlLTSALfS (SoIJ'
Full
might mJght rekindle year-aver-year earn- respectively with the uptick due largely '0
/lar.Per Jun.Per SID.Per DecPel You
ings growth. Though efforts to penetrate cost savings and lower cotton prices.
256.2 271.8 377.2 214.9 1180,1 these accounts were successful, and the Long-tenu debt has been temporarily
233.2 260.' 344.' 303.7 11422 core Jerseez brand Increased Its market
reclassified..
Restructwing efforts have
2520
2825
356.9 326.2 1217.6
share in the fleece artwear and mass mer- prompted the reclasslftcatlon of debt as
238.1 251.8 348.8 3DD.7 1148
chant
channels,
Russell
experienced
short tenn, though Russell is not in vlola2Z5
255
318
~ 1200 severe
prldng pressure and unexpected t10n of any covenants. Rather. it is being
EARNltGS PER SHARE A
Full cost Increases.
done to comply with accounting standards.
Mu.Per Jun.Ptr SIP,Per DeeP, Y.,
The company
is having difficulty
TIle dividend
has been slashed. The
,19
.11
1.18
.15
.10
E1.62 measuring demand. The slowing econo board elected to reduce the quarterly divi,11
.12
,11
.64
my and terrorlst attacks have wrought dend from $0.14 to $0.04. in order to save
1.90
.19
.22
.1B
.11
,12
,56
,15
.42
1.2J havoc on retailers' attempts to manage m- about $13 million to pursue acquisitions.
In the third quarter, Russell nus unt:iJnely stock's 25% discount to
.10
11
.n .It 1.< ventorles.
took manufacturing
downtime. whIch its book value and low Beta may inQUARmlLT OIVllEJllS PM) Co
full
pUnished share net by about $0.11. In or- terest cautious investors. However, we
lIu.31 Jun.30 SA.30 Dtc.31 You
der to bring yearend inventory levels un- don't see any catalyst able to reverse the
,14
.13
.53 der belter control. several plants probably decade-long sUde in the stock price, and
.13
.13
,14
.14
.14
.14
.56 won't run full schedules in the December advise most acrounts to stay clear until
,14
,14
.14
.so period, either. 1lrIs will Ukely cllp share pricing trends become more ravorable.
.14
.14
.56
.14
.14
.14
net by another $0.15-$0.20. Consequently,
Charles C. Moran
November 16. 2001
.14
.14
.14
.04

......
...,.

....,
CaI-

-.....

1191
Il9!1

2D01
2802

c.,

1191
1199

2801
2002

......
CaI-

1191
1191
ll9!1

2001
IAI F"",r_

nnds SIl ..... y ""'"""

y&ar~BI

Jon. 1~ I ..... Ql Ul 50,85; Q2 Ul 50." Q3 Ul


$1.04. Ned egs. rpl clue late Jan. (el Next
dwd ~&:bout
JBn. 23. Goes u-diY'd
.bout Nov.
, apprtlll.. div'd pa)'llll!fll: dOls,.

01 b1kJwi1g calendar
PmBry 8aI1li1gs
tlwugh
1997. then dluled. Excl nonrecuI'.
bsses: '93, 59rf:;'98, $1.33; "g, $1.38; '00,

.21111. VIUe Lile ~~


rmmII. Fu-IllllBilll
is IIQftd IrtWII_1IlIIitIelI
TIlE PU8USlR IS M:lTRf
ORNl'fRROASORClIIISSIONSH[R[I\I.~if,sftIIJlDr"""I_'_
fII ~ IIIIIJ1It,.1ldIIad, -*1. 5Inlt IIII'~
l1li III.- _
l1li
III ~

iII.,. ...~ ___

,,., .. "'''"''''''
M.y, _.
.............
Oivilend reinve*nenl
plan wailllb18. (D) In

to be I.-tIIe IIIlI is ptMded


.......

l~

m ...... (E) '99 MnIIlgS do net add to,,1


dll8lD change ~ sh .. outst!Indng.
..,

pri*d l;II

'IItiaJI......n af
.m.....irurNluse.
~

MI'Iice

~
l;II

rtc.

stock'

Prb

StabIItJ

60

GrowtII PIi..-.nc.
PNdclabilty

5
55

eBmlnp

u,d.
part
prllCllltl

,',

II:

II',

1 RIi5elISrn.m

SAFETY

3 Nl!'I'llZ109D
2 ..... ,.,...

TECHNiCAl
BE1A

'O'~l

11.6

12.6
7.8

5.4

6.9

rc~
LEGENDS
J.D I

7"
-,,,

-. .... ...
........

Ilr ," II

IF

..

...

...

..

JFIIAIIJJAS

, .,,

25507

1.11
.15
.12

'01
27
21

'

o ,
o 2

'"
:::.

..

II

.43

1.66

'05

..

!l,
1.84
1

.85
,02

".

1,.
1.38

'36

..

..

..

..

..

.61
,43
52.3
17.J
131

JB

'89

5'",
14.4
1.07

..

..

..

5.19
.66
.46

4.60
.58
.41

3.69
.50
37

32

= ~

..

CAPrTAL STRUCTURE .. of 1on,tQ1


Total tt-bt 5118.0 mil. Due In 5 VIS $1SQ.Omli.

LT ImrBI512.0ml.
LTDebl$118.0mil.
i37%dC.p~
(Toial intInst CU't'&age: 5.1x)
Annual rentals $.8 nil.

Uncapitlliud

Pension UablDty None

22.7

72

8.8

-.,11"

"""'-

33.4
45.3

CunnlUab.

"CzhAow"
Eami'lgs
Dividends
Book Value

Put

".6

.-

422
54.0

Est'd '18-'00

n... n ....

15.5%
13.0%

10.5%

.-

a.s"

17.5%
1tS.0%
14.0,,"

10.0%

9.5"

14.OK

12.5%

12.5"

--

QUARTBIlV RMMJES lloaJ


167.5
114.2
181.0
192.6
Z04

----zT:i

Pat

tiT",

M.r.Ptr Jlln.~r

153.2
159.6
lBa3
183.9
1tl

5.9
4.8
4.9
6.0

----.-u ~
11.0
11.9
_.
.37.1

Assets

R..........

,.....,

2.1
3.6
5.1
5.6

3.0
4.7
4.9

00"

ANNUAL RATES
of ...........
)

""

ca.lt."'~

Receivables
Inventory (FIFO)

No7

SIlD.~r

DecPIIl

1624
170.5
m.6
188.8
20lI

153.9
160.4
m.5
IN.7
llf

EAIMrIGS PERSHAREA
e ...
.... r lIIar.Per JU!l.Plr Sep.Ptr Dtc.P1I
,l1li
.20
.23
.27
.24
.25
I.
.25
.29
.29
.32
2000
.29
.36
.31
2D01
.34
.41
.n
.38
.35
.1.
.48
.42
QlJARTERLYOMlEMll PAIl
e ...
M".l1 Jun.30 5... 30 Dtc.3'
1997
1l1li
NO CASH DMDENDS
BBNG PAID

Full

y637.0
664.7
704.6
7S11
715
Full

y-

.64
1.10
D1.27

.......

1=

5.66
.67
.44

..

.83
335
52.80
18.5
1.11

..

299.0
16.41
122
23.3
37.1"
7.8"
.... 0

'l.-

US
1.'0
FilII

Yur

..

5.50
.Bo\

.56

..

1.02
3.03

7.42
.88
.53
..

1.33
,U1

"'.34

"'.42

18.1
1.10

162
.98

..

..

3022
396.4
11.11 15.9'
14.6
182
3D.l
265
31.5" 31.01
B5%
72%
d49.1 d75.4

..

209.7
14.3"
143%
14.3"

..

,.
12

..

238.7
12.01
12.0%
12.0'

..

...

..

...

5
4
3

..

1~.
3~.

1.02
.62

125

..

.n
..

1.39
J2

1.13
.94

1.95
1.10

1.25
5.04
53.4J
12>
.82

1.33
5.66

1.83
600

1.01
B.75

1.48
7!lD

1.87
9.05

".9B

35.80

JI."

J<I.J<I

.80

49.03
11.1
.70

1.12
1.16
38.15
10.9
57

UO
1.45
Hi
1.18
'02S

..

"'11.9
...
..

..

449.1 513.2
15.31 14.6%
20.9
21.4
3D5
332
36.4% 37.2'l1o
6.5%
6.8"
d9D.9 dl022

5655
14.8%
24.5
37.0
36<%
65%
d64.7
..
.. 93.0
269.' 302.7 294.0
11.lli 10.01
11.3'
11.31 11.0% 126%
11.3% 11.0'10 12.6%

..

..

..

..

105
.61

..

5992
15.1\
262
392
35.81
65%
d52.
93.0
317.1
10.3%
124%
12.4%

..

..

..

637.0
14.8%
27.6
40.3
36.0'4
6.31
d111.6
81.4

280.'
12.1"
14.4'
14.4%

..

BUStNESS: R)'i!In's Femlly Steak Houses, me. opl!IiIfIlS iI snglllconcept rtISIaurnt chilin consisting or 310 company-operailld and
23 hnchlSed restBLnntl tx:aiKl pmcipatj II the tolIthem tnd
midweslBrn Unlad StftIs. R8sbllnnb
fBattm CIlfelerit.styIrt-*Y,
~S1lYks, Buffut & Bali:sy,~ Bnd In f8i1sonably prt:ed. PaYlO11and
ben8fa: 30.1% r:i '00 ul8S. Has aboul t9,OOO npbyMs
iIfId

Ryan's Family Steak Houses is still


st:nJggling to attract customer'S ... AIthough same-store sales were uf 1.5% in
the third quarter of 2001, all 0 this gain
was attributable to higher menu pridng.
In fact, customer counts actually declined
by about 2% in the period. a rather disappointing showing, in our view, even considerlng the harsh economic climate. Yet,
we continue to believe that the company
will fare better than most other restaurant
operators In the coming nxmths,
as
strapped conswners increasingly seek out
inexpensive altematlves when dinlng out.
With an average meal-prlce-per-person of
just under $7, Ryan's ought to be able to
wrestle business away from &..ridercasualdining eateries. The family- endly atmosphere at the company's restaurants (they
do not offer alcoholic beverages) should
also serve it well during these times of unrest, since we think families are now more
llkely to eat out together.
but traffic,
and
sales trends,
should pick up before too long. thanks
primarily to the popularity of the company's display-cooking restaurant
format,
which was first introduced In May. 2000.

...

tow~lfOI2000._ ....

225
127

..

7D

9.'
.56

.46

..

..

104.6
15.01
29.4
42.0
362%
6.0'4
d31.7
192.0
282.4
10.3%
14.9%
14.9%

664.7
15.0%
283
41.6
37.31
6.3'
d32.1
1n.4
283."
10.0"
14.7%
14,7"

12042
""'"
n.B

12.'
38.4
1all.ll
78.7
C VALUE lJNE PUB ~C.
Rftlllun pi!' sh Ii
CuII flow" pw"
Eamlngl per III a

,~.

J6
51

..

...

,,-

.. 1m RTlIaI T1II1

..

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002


2259 24.75 Z7.4D
8.40
9.60 11.53
12..75 1621
16.54

(Al .... ,_
.. "'''' ... Wod' ...
m .............
_""
.......
to DecembBr 31st. R8Bnll8S ndudB
nd'IB8 cUdes nDmJaJrring (Iossest. '92, ($0.01); '96,
to rounding.
tees, but eu:UcIlt idsnI:sI: ilnd oCh_ ilc:cIII8.
rce;.17). Next enings rBpOl1 due mlhlilnutf)'.
(B) ~.
bilSlld on diluled shns;
biISed
CJ In mlions.
CI 21111,
..,..., liIe ~
~
1'I5eI'Iell. f8Clloll rueiII n IIIUiIelI 110m _
~
III be rfIIitbIe IIIlI is fWO'iIeII

UO
I.If
HR Drid. DKl'd "".,..
U5 Cap'l Sp .. " .. O.....
fUO Book VaIu, per sh
21.00 I COIIII'lIOIlShs 011111 I ~
A'll""
PIE'do
Relltift PIE RHo

...
---

"":,~

AVI Ann' Div'd Y"1IkI

7511
715 R... IIIIIS") A
1S.n 11""
30.0
310 Doprocll1l'" (1.. -,
4U
4>.8 ... PIll!! (l.. illl
IncanIt Tu Ratt
... PnlItM .....
dJU
IDOl W..... OCap' (loom)
190 LongTInII DIbI: (W)
330 "'r. E.IlI" (InollQ
3'0
10.", fO", R.turn on TatJiI Cap'l
R.... "'Shr.E .....
f1""
15.'" '1"" R.talnld CDCon Eq
Hi
H' All DiY'dllD Ntl Prof

f-

UfO
Uil
1.25
Hi
110
17,7S

".00

If.'
.75

...
H'

1_ ...,;, f1",

U"
11" 3l""
'''''

:11.""

..""

35.0
17.0

lI.""

7.""
<lIDO
280
".
fO",

13.""
f1O"
Hi

1bls innovative format. featuring a dining

rooDl grill, where fresh meats are cooked


to order directly in front of customers, has
alrea~ had a positive impact. on results.
lnde . at the Z5 ston:s that have. been
converted to display cooking thus far, sales
have Increased an average of 15%. In light
of this solid Improvement, management
plans to remodel approximately 50 more of
the chain's 310 company-operated units,
using this format. over the next year or so.
In addition. all new restawants will probably open with display cooking; wrrent
plans call for the opening of four new
stores In the fourth quarter and about 19
units in 2002. As more and more display
cooking units are phased into the samestore sales base. we think cnrnp growth
will accelerate markedly .
Ryan's shares are top-ranked for yearahead price performance,
making them
well suJted for momentwn investors. However, we think the stock. has subpar appredation potential to 2004-2006, following
its strong run in the past year. TIle current lack of traffic growth also renders this
issue somewhat risky.
Justin Hellman
December 14,2001

""'doeo""'odddue

e .............

"".,........

8+

Stock's Price Sb:bIilJ

80

Price Growth PwsIst8I1C1


wIIaul ~

f--

10,500 sharBhoIders. AI ol'rars & diredm CM'n 4.6% r:i a:mrmn


sb::k; PriYi1t8 Capital MiiDagement, 16.5%; Oinensionill Fund Advisors, 8.0% (oW' Proxy). Chalmiln, Pn!5ident. tnd CEO: Chlri!s
D. WilY lawns 1.3% of conmon). Inc.: South c.oinI. AddI8SS:
405 lJIncastBr AVBnllB(29650), P.O. Bm 100, Greer, South caoWlil 29652. Telephone: 864-819-1000. Intemet: WYfW.rytnsinc.com.

cI

:70bJIl

lHEPU8USl-ERISNJ1RE
[ORNfYfRRORSOROMSSlONSH(REIlI.lhis~i5sn:lybSlllm::ritlel's_,-"".""'''LirtImIl.!It.
part
It1IIIId. 1IDItll1ll ~
illIIIJ pMd. *dr_ CI' ........
III lI5ISI1m v-r*1!IlI' ~
IIIIJ fIIi*d. ftQIlic pIIIIbliton. 5eI'Ite III pI_11

g. -.y lie ~

25
20
18

...

176.9
(63% of Cap~ 132%
Common 5toc1l3O,501,000 sid.
132%
IlARKET CAP: $7QO mllnon Ismail Ctp)
132%
CURRENT POSITION

r_rget Price Range


20 ..
2005 2006

'I'll

. . .. ..

..

PM Stock NoM

o.ltDue
Other

10,4

8.3

..

202"

'96
.42

.79

-,.

14.1

7.2

:M.'

2B280

..

.36

2lIIIl

13.4

II',

I'

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 ~3

'191
,.

9.B
6.9

3D

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 4 100
3 1
021140042
InstHutioNlI Decisions
10101
Pen:ent
.
51 h.....
51
1IS.1 40
42
B2
traded
'.0-

2000

6.5

40

RrIum

(+3r1
'(:'0%

3D
28

Ca'
.......

10.1

Pritt Shnga1
...,.
ra:eBiln

AM"otal

Gain

Price

Cunni

B.5
6.1

Nil

DMI
TlD

PROJECTIONS

t':t

L.u.,

9.1
5.4

Itdllll:

C ... ra." P !ill

__

.10 (l1lO. Mirkd)

2_

8.5
3.9

High:
Low;

m1EUIIESS

Insider Decisions

RELATNE
0 79
PHATIO.

RYAN'S FAMILY STEAKNDQ.RYAN I~cer 22 731~f RAllO 14 9(Toi"!'5J) 12.1

earnings
I

25

Predlc:tabIltJ
I

I',

100
:11:

11-,

SAFEWAY INC. NYSE-swy

I[RECENT
PIIICE
'.1

2.'

5.7
2.7

41 6S;-jPf
RElAINE 0 89 DMl
IIflAT 15 3(I""sI7.6)
IItdi.,: II] PHAT.
TI.D

12."
7.7

2-

22.7

3U

'1.3

21.1

61.4
30.5

62.4
29.3

62.7
30.'

Nil

61.4

Target Pric. Hans-

37.4

2004 2005 2006

....

125
100

r-1

.'

50
40

'"

2S
20

15

Pension Ulbllity Nons

A. SCHULMAN INC. NDQ-SHLI


17.=ff 23.3
3 R~Jl!lll
3 ...,.,,,,
3 ...".,."

TIIEUMS5
SAFm
TECHNiCAl

HighT
Law:
11.1

15.2

LEGENDS
10.0 I -Cnh r ... p 111
. . . ReIIliwePIn SRngll
UDr2. ~
3119
].10,-2 sp@ 919D
Uor-2 ~
1/92

.liS (1m- ~
2OOU6 PROJECTlON5
Ann, TgQI "'!"s:.~ oW4
~~""'J,etrniln
PrIce
GaIn~\ Rnrm
30 (~~15% 23%
".. '.'
1':1: 20
+40%
12%

lED.

Insider Dec:l5ion.

....
....

~RECENT

PRICE

27.0

29.8

21.0

20.8

21.0

I..

..

19358

,''''

-Cumlnt Ass8ts

Debt Due

""""

60.

,..8
162.1
184_8
18.1
38 .8
61.6
. 0
43.0
1126
Pas1 Est'd
,Tn.

1-48.8
165.7
202

....

39n

U2IIb.

'.0

".6
1072

" ..... 0-"',

38.7

175.8
155.9
21.1

389.5
58.,

35.8

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
19.14
1832
19.99
21.33
25.83 27.50 29.85
,,0
1.57
1.43
1.86
1.54
1.59
1.89
1.18
1.04
1.19
1.43
1.12
137
1.48
22
.33
.41
15
29
.38
.45
.43
.49
.88
1.56
.49
.75
.93
8.26
7.84
9.21 10.75 11.43 10.83 10.97
7.
37.
7.
37.
1..
14.9
2lJ.l
224
21~
15.9
20.'
1.22
1.33
1.32
1.38
129
.77
.92
.9~
11~
In 2.0%
1.11
1-'"
1.""
73U 885.1 748.8 1027.5 976.7 996.4 993.4
11.2'JI 10.3% 10.61 10.2% 9.""
10.31 10.2'%
14.6
14.7
14.7
1&.8 18.1
17.8
17.8
43.9
38.9
44.6
53.6
4U
lII.7
522
411." 37.1'4 36.7'4 40.31 40.6" 41.21 39.8~
5.7'4
6.01
5.2% '3~
5.11
5.21
6.""
243.1 237.9 291.0
363.0 36ll.9 2920
290.'
10.1
101
23.1
75.1
120
411.0
411.'
307.6 2941
345.9 405.2 433.1 393.4 386.'
13.91 1211~ 12.11 11.6'
9.3% 12.8% 13.11
141~ 13.2% 12.9% 13.21
9.114 12.9'
".2%
11.61 10.11
1.11
6.51
9.9%
9.8'
24~
24~
23~
33~
30~
18'
3"
I5USINESS: A. SChum.n Inc. sells high-per1ormance plasti: resins
which arv used as I1lWmaErials in its cusi:rners' manufaeung
opel'8tiDns. The CDnpIInyalso purt:hases plll* resins ror,..18 or
to bmulal8 propriBBy COI'J1lOllmfs
'iiibed' kl CusDner specf"lCItior-. A Schuman ads as mlnufl:aurw (&4" 01'01 sam), 1l'l8I"charrt (17"), .TIll dis1ribub (19%). Foreign sales, 59.4,," of '01 to-

.,

100.3

..""

We

-1-""".......
~.
...-.

IAIB Diluted
F_
.- ~d ....... 31 01 "' .....
eamngs. weightld avg. unti 91.
EJ:I:Iudesnonrectmig (Ioaes): '91, (8); '93,

~m

TH(I'UBl.JSI*RISNJ1RE
vii
lit r
led, 5lDnd

'.0

Target Prie_ Range


20 ..
200.
2006
50
40
32

2.
18

~",

12

10
8
8

-..nc

la' *dIIri:

"oaK
-.
I"

""
""'"

1999
2000
2001
2002
31.86 35.20 33.39 3!.75
2.02
2.20
1.16
1.111
115
.43
1.51
.111
.54
.54
.49
.54
1.13
1.11
1.15
.15
11.41 10.99 11.03 11.15
11.7
.67
2.8~

"" TOt. RETURN 1'111

11.3
.75
3.8~

20.44
1.08
4.5~

985.6 1032.5 975.2


10.4% 8.7% 4."
20.8
21.8
21.1
47.8
37.7
127
38.7'4 44.61 !J6.01
4.81
3.7'4
13~
2883
2n.2
2891
65.0
83.6 105.4
356.2 323.5 3221
11.8% 10.0% '4~
13.41 11.7~
3.~
9.0% 6.7'
Nil'
NMF
33~
43~

...

1 Y'.
I"
312
3Y'.
30.'
-35.4
10.'
'Y'.
VAlUEUNEPIJIl. ~C.
WllpII'lh

.." -(~.
'lII

23.11
17.0
51.0%
1.'"
2JO
filii
3D

4.175

"Cosh_p.,,"
e.nin;s per III II
DiY'dsDtd'd per III C
elp' 5pMdingp.,,"
Book Yllul per_
9
AvgAnn' PIERdo
Rlillin PIE Rdo
AvgAnI' D1v'dYJeId

.......

o..rin.-......

Ospracirion ($111111
N.. Pn>ft.... i
InconIt 1uRaIl
Nil Prufllil-Uil

W_g Cop'I(lnll)
LongT.,. o.td {$rill)

.'' :Eo.... ,lnlli

SOlI Altum on ToUI c.p,

._
... S1w. E";1to
.5~ Retand to Con Eq
lOll AD DJv'ds to NIt. ProI

""

<III

...

,.5/1
1.15

1175
08

...

..U""
I.IlII

fZ441

311.11
45.11

"""
~'"
'811
fZlI
1711
11.0%

"'"
,."
''''

tal '01 depr. me: 6.3%. Has about 1,860 empbyees; 163 shaIehoIdeB. orranlDIec:tn
own 2.7% of s1oci:; Perkins, Wol
McDomoll & Co., 12.0%; Snyder Cllpial Man., 7.1"; 8Brgs" Sma.
ClIp., 7.5". (11101 praxy). Ch.irmln & CFO: R A. SIehInkD. PnIs.
& CEO: Teny L Hames. Inc.: DE. Adli".: 3S5O W. Mmllt st., ~.
Itln, OH 44333. Tel.: 330-666-3751. tntlmllt: www.uchuman.carn.

Profits
should
stage
a
partia1
recovery in nsca.l 2003. Current investment in more effident technology and
manufacturing lines should help. Too, a
pickup in domestic demand for the rompany's more spedallzed products. which
should lead to greater capadty utilization
are pluses contributing to share net of
about $0.90 In 2003.
These shares may be of interest
to
income- and deep-value oriented
investors
with a long-tenn
horizon.
Given the prospective lack of demand for
Schulman's products. as well as relatively
high resin costs, we don't see earnings,
and thus the stock, moving up much in the
short term. Still, we view the downside
risk at this point as being relatively minimal, with a support level of around $11 a
share (current book value). AddlUonally.
the wellprotected dividend (Schulman has
the strongest
balance sheet
In the
sector)
.pecla1ty
chemical
provides
downsJde protecUon and an income stream
that is better than many bonds. As such.,
we feel this is a good entry point for longterm investors seeking an income kicker.
Jeremy J. Butler
December 21, 2001

due m..... '.


'" F.bruaoy, May.......
, .'" -"".
(C) Next dividend meetiIg early Jan. Goes ell- (D) In mi., adjustBd lor stodr: splil:sand djy'ds.
divi:l1!flCl1n Jan.
Diw'i:IendpII)'11l8111 dIt. 011or.cund the 5th
rMhal IIIIIBIII i5 otIlIimIll rn- 5IMU'S ~
kI be I1tIIIR MIl i5 p1IIiIIell1llll:lul
-...s d ~ UIct.

(ORNr((RRORSQROIMSSlONSHERDf.~i5!1'i:1yb!ltlsl::libs'5-'llCII1eo"'''cilLirlIWJIIlWll!.
it
.
la'''
....
la'
b
'.
_

la"~

14.4

8.'

...

(5tf); '98, {~~


c 21111, YIlJr liIe

16.9

13.0

If Ir

.......
..""
.."

---

228

- -- - --

look for Schuhnan"s fiscal ZIIOZ


share net (year ends August 31st,
ANNUALRATES Put
"91-'00 2002) to stage a partial recovery. Sales,
"Tn.
however, are likely to decline about 3%
Sales
6.5,,"
8.0%
"CashRaw"
7.0%
7.0%
7.5"
this~
due to tepid domesUc demand.
Eamngs
3.0,,"
7.""
5.5"
Sch
has closed its highest-cost
Dividends
13.5% 11.5%
domestic plant in Akron, OH, which
BcdI. Value
9.0%
3.5"
3.""
eliminated 13% of its capadty. TI1Is
Flacal
F
Ql/ARTElll.ISAlfS 1101.'"
r.., NoY.311
help bolster margins. In our
Feb.ZI 1IIy31 Aug.31 Fiscal
roo, should
opinion, this move was iong overdue since
1991 264.2 Zl9.8 256.8 2326
993.4 capacity ullllzation had been falllng Inio
1991 256.8 235.2 250.5 241.'
985.6 the mld- to low-8o% ra;je throughout the
2000 273.7 248.1 Z75.3 235.4 10325
last 18 months. and w
d have decreased
238.9 252.6 227.1
975.2
2011' 256.6 Z2Il
further this year. Demand is down. inven20IIZ 24D
24D
ZSlJ
'SlJ
tory backlogs are up. and raw materlal
F~I
EARJrMGSPERSHAREAII
r.., .... .311
Fiscal costs (partlcularly resin) remain stubbornF'b.28 11Iy31 A0931
r.., ly high. Although European economies are
1918
.35
.31
.38
.44
1.48 expected to be weak this year. demand for
1991
.40
.Z7
.36
.48
1.51
Schulman's products in Europe shouldn't
.38
.32
.32
.23
1.25
ZID1
d.03
.05
.22
.19
.43 wane. 1bis is because the majority of the
nondurable
20IIZ
.f3
.fO
.811 company's products target
.f7
.111
markets for consumer packaging and conQ\IARTElll.I
O
NilENOSPAIl
C
c
Full sumer products. In addition, raw material
enllar lIIu.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 DK.31 r..,
costs are expected to be lower there. The
1!197 .105
.105
.105
.105
.42 tax rate wlllllkeiy remain high, though, as
,18
1991
.115
.115
.115
.115
the anUdpated lack of profits in the
1991
.115
.125
.125
.~9
.125
.135
.135
.135
.135
.54 domestic operation prevents the use of tax
loss carryforwards.
z001
.135
.135
.135
.135
Curntnt

12.0

1985
1986
1987
1989
1990
1991
1988
11.99
8.61
10.33 12.31
15.87 16.57
19.93
.43
.ss .71 9S 1.05 124 1.41
.41
.82
.95
1.07
.32
.52
.73
.15
.06
.07
.13
.l~
.19
.09
A7
.49
.19
.32
.30
31
.69
,.93
5.91
3.31
827
'01
'.39
'88
7.
37.
'7
8.5
127
13.6
123
12.6
13~
16.5
1.08
tOO
.69
.88
.91
1.02
.95
11~
11~
21~ 1.31
1.5~
1.3%
1."
CAPITALSTRUCTURE IS of 11131~1
738.0
TGbltDebtS111.8ml. D.. tn 5 Yrs S&.4m"
11.""
LT Debt S105.4 mill.
LTklUrat$7.8miIL
13.0
(25~ of Cap',
39.3
Laue, UnCipiLIliDd Annual rentals 132 mil
43.3~
Pension UablltyS27.2 m" k'l"01 'is. $24.7 m"
5.3'
il '00.
173.5
PId Stock $1.1 mi.
PId DlY'd $.0:5mil
9.0
10,689shs. 5% cum. ($100 par)
232.6
(less thin ,% of Cap'!)
16.51
Conwnon Stod: 29,211,589shillllS (75% 01 cap'!)
as 01 !tI15101.
16.9%
IIARKET CAP: $412 million (Small Cap)
14.(11,
CURRENT POSITION
2000 111311111 18~
Receivables
~ntrxy (AvgCst)

13.4

'.,"

P.~nt
38 ah.....

,l,8'LLI
Co
......

28"

...

.. ......

19158

26.3
18.0

. ......

"."

"'.,
.7
'"''
.,
,-"

:!.-L

26.5
19.5

20

JFMAMJJAS

44

32.8
17.3

IIIIIIIIi ,1"1111'

o 10 0 10 10 1
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
.....
1
000
0 1 0 1 0 0
Institutional Decisions

1m.,

14.111~oo23.9(=~ 1m ~J%1.29 ~ 3.8%

282

5InIi:e

pill
la'

CamP'1.'

F......

, .... 'g1h

S1Dck'. riQ Stability


Prica Growth Persliltltnce
Eamlngs P,..sjdablltJ
I

".

II:

8
80
5
50
II',

SEQUA CORP. 'A' NYSE.sQAA

3 RWll nl2.wJ
3 ... In""
2 ,,"'!101

TWoEUNESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAl
I(D.

High:
Low:

..,

"'*-

1l1li

~_"*-'s

39.8
17.6

465
29.5

32.1
21.9

67.9
Je.3

75.9
45.8

72.8
44.0

54.1
30.3

Target Prie. Rllnge


2000t 2005 2006

54.2
33.9

125

''''
80

rtsSiM

"

_."

,'I
'I

,...
.,,,

",'

'.

I'"

60
50

"I"

40

30
25
20

AL_-+--t--+---j':-cc-*'"---+--t-,,,+-::c--j~~+--,:-t--+---+--+---+--+---t
......

J J

34.5
18.0

5.5 I C... Ft.- P :lh

AM'TDbJ
R.twn

D
F A
0000000001

51.0
29.0

..... R:mPrEt~

PROJECTIONS

Price
Gain
""
70
1'#""
Loiir
45
1-5%t
Insider Decisions

Nil
66.1
36.8

LEGENDS

.7D O.DQ MIdd)

2_

77.0
50.0

000000000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Instilut:ional Decisions

....
I::='

aM

1QZW1

30
21
2927

30
21

'10 rot

2m.'21

P.~1I1

.h.m

28 tf1l~

3093

1 yr.
J yr.
5yr.

,to
2.D

3111i1

15

RETURII.,
....
""'" ".... 6.4

211.6
02

...
-10.6

26.3
55.1

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199. 199~ 1996
1999 2000 2001 2002 CYALIEUNHIIB.IIC.
.. Ill
11321
".33 105.91 166.08 199,06 232.10 191.05 193.52 175.77 143.87 143.32 147..31 161.05 173.51 163.88 170,94 11.1.60 187.00 _
10,32 10.66
3.10
9.52
9.90
10.34 11.15
3.32
9.93 13.75 14.23 13.65 12.17 13.73
7.75
1.10 Cnh~pw"
7.63
5,55
3.03 124
212
11.70 f.50 e.linppwlll.
1,91
1.53 d7.6D d2.87
d.26
.65
1.66
2.58
1.16
324
5.42
6.31
,60
.60
.60
,~
.~
,60
,60
Hi
Nil Dtv'ds Dld'd pw sh
.30
.60
9,60
16.30 12.99
7.96
5,79
6JX1
5.n 5.07 6.96 9.97 9.7B 10,11 7.70 7.10 C""SpooKInOporlll
1.62 U9
9.59 1231
88.43
n.43 70.29 6m
56.74 54.74 55.n 87.llB 57.45
62.92 13.25 1(10 BoatYmIt pw III II
24.61 55.31 59.92 64.n
62.'1
62."
9
OJ7
1DJ!l
10>7
10>7
1UD
1D.5O CCll'llJlmI 5IIs
II
7.01 10.02 1D.69 10'1
U7
__
...... .,PIE ....
261
20,1 ~~
lu
30,9
NOoF
19.5
13.'
.
25~
30.'
1.59
~ u..
RIIIUn PIE Rdo
n
HOP
1.78
NMF 1.32
.90
.02
1.35
1.73
1.13
1.5%
.Ill
.Ill 1.0'4
1.4"
"9 M., lIh'd Ylold
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 113C11U1
1878.8 1668J 1697.0 ",9.6 1414.1 1"'" 1595.1 11102.4 1699.5 1m.1
17M
1160 _I~I
Total o.lll$711.1~.
Due m 5 Yrs $9O.0ml.
11.8" 13.0\
10.B~
7.4" 10.'1 11.6' 10.711 10.~ 10.8\
10.'"
~""
10.""
LT Debt $707.7 mill.
LT Imrest $63.0 mil
1041 117J
B5,B
88.6
110.1
87.2
104.0
91J
96.
".0
111.0D~(""III)
Ind. $.2 rril cap. 1!Ies.
15.
19,6
.6
24.0
17~ 0701 1124.1
21.9
9J
d1.' I....NoIPn>ItI~1
(Esl'd 2001 inknsl no! earned)
(50.9% of Cap"!) r.i;ii;+.~O-t-=""_I'-"=+_c;;ci+.""O-t<.'i:i:'-l"'~-hiT.i+.iii-t--ii~h~:+.:=~"""~---1-T.~-I
NMF 74.8"
55.0" 53.4"
40.1% 40.0'4 NIF ~'"
53.4"
Leues Uncapltl.lir:ed Annual rentals $15.3 nil
IftccnITuRa
1.,..
PeftskM! Lllblily
None
.7~
1.4%
1.3%
'MF
11"
NIF
."' ... ProI1 ....
PM Stock $17.2 mil
PIlI OiY'd s.z. 1 ml.
375.4
329.0 285,1
309,4
3B5~
379.6
2!2.9
296.5
329.1
535
55Q _0 Cop'II""I)
413,010 shI. (ea. wlone w*I) $5 cwn., Cili. id
825.5
624.1 586,6
59ll,6
690.0
5631
700
700 lang-Tn:! DIbIIWj
569.9
508.7
651.7
59ll,B 59U
575.8 586.5
669.B
175
Ita Shr.
668.9
8766
$100, l!8. CY.into 1.32 com. shs. (047.9%rlCaP'Q
(1.2% rlCap'l)
CammonStocl10,385,173shs.
rI 696.6
3.3%
NOoF
,.0'4
.IlI
',0'4
3.8%
2,'" 3.5% Rlium CII'I TGbII CIp'
(Incl3,J29,7BO shs. '8' slL, ea. w/10 vctes)
'.0'4
J" 24"
(as of 7131~11
27~
.IlI 1.61 3.3%
3.6~
NMF
HF 2", R
.... '" SIr. E_
22"
"IF
3.'"
MARKET CAP: S525 m116Dn(Small C.ap)
1.01 1.5\
NIF
1n. RItIIned
to ComEq
3.0%
NMF HMF 1.1, 2.9%
3.4"
"IF
CURRENT POSITION
1111 .
zaoa 113M1
HIE
1.1% AI DiY'dsto NIl. Prof
.IF
NMF

.,,,

....

.." .." .." .,,,

"0'

.'"'

7.5

--..
llZ.M
IU.

.60
U.
71.>5

'10
1.00

1.1"
11.11"

""

"'715
",.
-'~~-;';lJ-~~4_~~~~-1--'~U~~f..!~~-;'\~I-'~4-~~h~~~~~~~.+_

CB~~

88.2

50.0

128.7

271.7

266.8

275.8

3li~

3~i.g

Cumllrt Assets
Accts Payable

680.3
129.2

723.3
145.8

854.0
146.4

ORbt
Other Due

5.3
166.2

1.4
190.2

3.4 I
183.8

Current
ANNUAL

liab.

300.7

RATES

aI'~o-"J

11Yn.
-1.5%
-2.5%
-8.0'%
--1.0%

Sales
''Cash F\aw"

Earnings

Dividends
oak Value
CaIend.,

Pat

""""333:6

337.04
Past

'91-'00
tD'Mo.
1.~
2.5%

Est'd

$lIS.
2.0%
9.0%
--2.5%

QUARTERLTSAWIIIIIIj

.ar.!' Jun.JO S.D.3D Dec.!1


439,9 457.6 459.0 445.9
1999 407.3 433.2 416,3 4427
_
430.6 449.7 433,0 459.8
2101 430.1 448.6 4II/l
4lf.J
2102 375
4II/l
4Z5
4111
CalEARNltGS PER SHARE A
ndl.r IIlr.31 Jun,SD SeD.3D Dtc.31
.43
.65
.95
.55
IS
. 1
.83
.42
.25
20IG
.36
.47
,44
.85
2IID1 d.21
,02 ,UI
,UII
2102
.20
.311
.411
.10
CaJ.
QUARTERLYDIVI)BI)SPAII
endar
Jun.30 Sen.
DK.S1

'1!8

'1!8

.ar.n

1117
1111
::
2001

NO CASH DIVIDENDS
B8NG PAl)

9.5%

NAIF
2.OK

F.II
Y....
1802.4
16S9.5
lID,l
11VII
1650
Ful
V.r

258
1.91
212
d70
1.50
Full
Yur

.""
l""
.,.
H'"
r-::=::=::::-c:c'--,-::--'-,-:,.-'---c,-..L.---'.:...L-,.:..J,.--.L-.,.L.=-"l,.,-,,..,.'---c--=...l......,.---===--==-,.:..J,.----'-I
""
'"

ReQlivabies

=toI) (FIFO) 3~]

700

BUSINESS: S8qua Corpcntion m.akel alilIlJSI)aOG


pnxlucb (gu
lurbil1lil engine componenls and fDCk8t propulsm sys1eIl'ls), molchr,ery .and rretal c:oaI:ngs (can-forming n decoI'lIII:ing equipment
Ind pmtilg lIBCf1i1s), spocillly ~Is.
aum lighWs, and

men'. formal alln. DiscI:ln.i'UJecI divisions Ih.aI pruvided technical


services, Ie.ase equipnwnl, and oper1IIed a bIrge ;. l.anks 1118it

August 1991. Sold KoIsm.an, Oealll1ber 1995. 2000 depr8dI:tiDn


I'lIItB: 7.5%. Hils 11,550 8~,
3.000 sharehoUers.
N.E.
AJexander mnioIs 53%, The Gabel Grmp has 30% rI vtUig
power (04101~I. ChBirmln & CEO: Norman E. AIlIx ........ Incorpcnt8d: DcInare. Addras: 200 Pirie Ave., NY, H8W' York 10166.
Telephone: 212-986-5500. 1ntBrn8t:...... ..-qUl.axn.

and quarter. The company's Chromalloy


gas turbine divlslon. by far its most important unit, periormed very well as strong
demand in both the ml1ltary and commerda1 aftennarkets for Jet-engine repair
more than made up for a slowing originalequipment-market
business. But Sequa's
highly ieveraged earnings were hit hard
by a combinaUon of weakness in the European market for alrbag inflators. falling
demand for can machinery. and a sharp
dip in the need for domestic automotive
dgarette lighters. In addition. translation
costs were high. and there was a $3.2 million charge related to the increased cost of
natw-al gas. Finally. some expensereduction efforts cost another million doltars during the quarter.
And the third period was probably
tougher yet. The September 11th terrorlst attacks stopped operations of an already faltering domesUc alrUne Industry
for several days. And It has limped since.
wilh .-educed.use of alrllne:rs resulting in
less need for Jet-turbine repairs. This slowdown of the major mal'ket of the most Important company unJt. and particular

dustry, will probably drop the bottom Une


into the red this year.
Our view of ZOOZ is more clouded than
usual. But for now. we look for a moderate upturn in the company's diverse bus1nesses. with share earnings bolstered by
the cessation of goodwill wt1teolfs.
This issue is perfonning surprisingly
weD in a weak stock market. even
though the company is likely to be in the
red this year, since a recovery is not yet in
sight. We believe its price slnmgth reflects
the belief of some investors that Sequa's
possible aaJuisltion and/or its liquidation
value far exceeds its current market price.
That might well be so. But management
has given no indication that it 15 interested In either possibility. As a result. tnvesto~ should focus on Sequa's value as a
continuing business. with the speculaUve
possibllltles reserved for those willing to
bear the risk. and that have considerable
patience. Aa:ordIngly, Sequa stock is selllng within lhe 3- to 5-year price range that
we project. based on the earnings potential
that we deem probable.
Morton L. Siegel
November 2. 2001

'-;===:-=~=:'
::-=::O::..::7:::::;c=-':="c:..:::..=.;=:..=.:..::'--::::::O:;:==:.::==:.c:'=';:-::::=;O::::::::::=:---::-=-=,_;::_j
Sequa CofllOration bad a tough sec- weakness among units serving the auto tn-

I!~

(A) Prm., egs. hDugh 1996, ItBMt'IIr


'94, 111~); 'is, 83t!; '98, $3.43; '99, 30; '01,
In milxls.
~ ~ompany'a
F.. ncll.1SbMgtII
diu. Exl:I. nomIC. gains(losses): '85,(64); 13f!.NItJd: e.nings report due mi:I-NDv.
0) Interms bllsed on rui-yelr diltdlld shins.
S1Dck" PrtCliStablltJ
'86, $16.66; '87, ($1.47); '88, (27;;);
(B) Ind. nang. In "DO: $305.5, $29.45kh.1ncl
Full diuled m 3 kl5 rlWS.
Price Growth"~
'89, 14S;;~tl1, ($2.26); lIZ, ($3.02); '93. 65;
ICCIrrIJIat8d cunene,. kiss: 2000, $37.a mil.
Eamlnp PNdlctahllItr
~ mn, ... u.e I'\ItJi5hillI. IrE. AI rQtIb resmtd. FIl1IlII .....
is 1Ib:.-.N InwlI SIIIrCeS bIRRd to be nMIR .. G ,nridell ....
1rIIJaIIlie GI .., ki'nI.
mE PUBlJStR IS N'J1 RES"PCINSlBlE1=ORAN'iERRORS OR OMISSIONS HERE". Thir. pUlIi::Mn ir.1I'CIJ b....-.n
_, _-cawJBtilL.mn.I~.
80 pM

'.
: II:
1111.., lie ~
1fWI, .. ell --.-cI i1q ......... CII'it OI"
... II md .. 9'MI*Ig OI..-.ti1g..,. pri*lI. -.:nni:: paIII:Ilion. -*t 01111'*1

B
60
40
20
I I

SIGMAALDRICH

..... TMEUIlESS
SAFID

TECHNiCAl

3 RMllnWl
2 ..... .".,
4 _"'",,,..,

'""

J 17.9
12.5
Low:
LEGENDS
16.0.

1~'1 ~

CCd ~

Ann' Total

-.

....
.,,

t.-

00100
1 1 1 0
o 1Z0 3 0 0 20
001
020
0 2 0
IMututional
Decisions

.. ....,

"8

,OS

...

"
'.'

1"

...

...

''''

00....

-!

.,

1'11'1'1'

52~

713.6

58.'

180.1
97.1

105.6

335.'

37.3

204.'

471.6
42.0

756.0
60.3

342.'

15.5%

16.1%

1<%

14%

15.6'

14%

.'"

."

--

,I"l

40

"
24

11,1"11'

18
12
'.

.. .'

"

..

'.

==

8512
24.7%
36.1
110.3
352%
13.0"
391..3
14.5
699.5
15.5ft

15.e.,
13.4%

15%

1yt

3yr
5yr

-- 205

12.5

381

304

42.0

707

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 o~ALlIEUNEP\18 ~C.


,US SlIts per air ..
t1.87
11.12
11.23
'0.29
'U5
'O.:w
.. 0
W
2.10
US "Cull Flow- PII' ...
1.93
2.13
2.21
1.47
1.66
1.15
1.95 Enlngl pi!' III
U8
1.61
1.64
.zg
~1
.U Ofv'd. Dld'd JIll' Ih C
23
.26
.28
.'3
.91
.10
US
1.05 CIIp'I Spondini pot III
.9<
1.06
1.30
8.n 10.15
11.15 Boat: VIIuI pi!' sIl
9.42
10!>6 1~09
12."
1
98.57
~ 13.00 Ie.......
0
18.7
19.9
ZOO
ZO.9
AYgMn'~ltDo
".9
R_P/ERdo
1.19
12<
1.18
1.15
1.I1S
~
AYIIAn .. , Ib'd YiIld
.9%
.8%
n .8%
1.0'
959.8 1034.6 1127.1 tllU.3 1037.9 1096.3
t175
1115 SMII($IIflIIJ ....
Illoonh,M_
25.7' 26.1% 26.8% 25.6'
26.'% 25.3% 13.'"
O__
llnll
660
110
1~0
<0.9
<52
615
61.'
".\
166.3
139.1
131.7
141.9 166.1
'''.6
I"
'U No1Plott 1'111'11
35.6% 3<.3% 31.4'
35.S"
21."
31.5' 31.0lI .11.0% mean. Tu RItI
1-4.3%
13.1% 14.3' 14.ni 13.9'
11.'" 11.7% No1PIo81 M"iln
669.0 378.3
17O w_,"""1
5OZ.0 556.3 5812
630.3
llaM)
13.8
100.8
105
3.8
.6
2
'00 l.ontIT"", "'" ~l
859~
IZO
824.1
9<U 1060.3 1216.4 1259.4
8"
14.8ft
15.8ft
15.7% 15.7% 13.1"1 11.8ft
1>0lI RtIunI on Tattl Clp'
,6.0% 15.7%
Altum lit 9Jr. E'1l~
15.1% 13.71- 11.B% 16.2% 17.~
13.7"
13.3% 13.21ft 11.3%
13.11
14.0% 115% RItained 10CllIIt Eq
9.4"
,<%
ZO%
19%
All DiY'dl to Net Prof
15%
16%
11%

1994 1995
8.54
9.62
1.41
1.73
1.11
1.32
.11
.19
.13
.60
1.02
821
.. .1,
18.5
".8
121
1.12
.8%
.9%

......

.... .......

.. TOT. RE'TURIiII11101

-:;;.-

..'"

..

TV"

'"

'.OlI ,.'"

BUSINESS: SigmiI-A1drJ::hCorp. deYeklps, manufaaurss, and distrib_


B Wide range of biocllemi::lls,
organic chemicall,
d1rorTBtogriIphy pra:lucls end diagnosli: IIIoIgenIs. The ampeny
dislribu8s rmr& than 85,000 products in lMlI" 150 auniies.
These
,:m:l1lCb .e LI58d in R&D jn IInNwsiies and i'Jdusby, iI I'" Clilg
nosis of diseae, end a ipIICialy ch&ri::als lor manufadwing pro-

89.7
492.1

......

,-

I:).:""6189;
.... th8
_ Supelco
.... "',chrmJidography
... C......

-.1\aI ........

Sh'.-...... '....,;

"" ""

ZO."
110
1'"

...
,....

1...
IUO

XO
1.35
.Ill
lUll
25.0lI
10.0
115
'lOll
11'"
UII
3'0

'''''

'lOll

"""
fl.'"

''''

ce5SlIiI..
Foreign salas about 55% Ii llO rev. Has about 6,218 IWIIpbyges. Off!. and dirs. own 1.3% d shs.; WelinlJbn MgIIt., 7.1%;
AIM Funds, 6.1%; Vanguard, 6.4%; S\ft Farm Mutua~ 8.4%; A.
Bedw, 7.0% (3101 pl'IXIy). ChaiTnln: Tom eon. Pr9s. & CEO:
Davkt HarYey. Inc.: DE. Ada.: 3050 SputB St., S1. lOllis, YO
63103. Tel: 314-n1-5765. 1ntem8t www.sigmHIllHtl.com.

lem of a lack of growth in profits from operatlons.


And net income is unlikely to move up
much in 2002. Stiff competition In the
company's favored blotedl line. in ConjWlCdon with a g~era1 malaise in demand Cor
the company's other products, will make
the going tough. The absence of $0.08 a
share in goodwill amortization costs. along
with the repurchase of at least two mUllon
shares. should bolster the bottomllne fig~.
But unless the poorly perf~
dJagnostlcs dJ"1sIon Is eIther
t
around quickly or (more likely) divested.
we. don't see much profit growth.
This good-quality
issue will likely
tread water for a whUe untlJ earnings
catch up with It. We can see no Onn cataiyst in eIther the short or intermediate
tenns that would propel Jncome slgn1ftcantly higher. The main earnings
driver appears to be the higher-margin
biotech group. But WltIl SIAL attains aidcal mass In this business by consummating a meaningful acquisition (which we
have not figured into our esUmates). we
don't recommend this issue.
Jeremy J. Butler
December 21.2001

AO. (8).uic ......


""" end 01"91, .....
~N""' ..... m " .. rrid.f.b.Goes"~~
diri- thenlorn.. Em ane-tinliI charge b adopI:DIl
b. Apprw;ima1e dlY'd. paymen1 d*s: .Mn. 2,
sian fA Romllllld Haas fr'm15B3; and CidIl of FASB 106 end 109: '93, (11). Nul. Bn- M. 15, June 17, 5epl15.
lAW Products {;(mPlny from 6193.
ings rvport due"
.IiiIIn.
(DJ In milDns, adjusted b sb::t spits.
c 21111. VIIue liR ~
~
resemd. F1ttu.! rnnIII;oI q obUIined rr- 5lUteS ~
lD be ....
1l'llI is JIfG"i*lI .......
1IftfIIa cI ~ aiId.
TIlE PUBUSI-i:I!. NJl RE
lE. ORNl'f fRRQIlS OR OUISSIONSHEll.EJ,I.1IBpIII:IIIicItalil;sP:lIy 1lDr~
LioLiltsnIIne.
pill
dill
mDIII. ~
... .--,.~
....
.-...:
...
bIL .IlSlidb ~.-*di9MJP'III ~tR:
........
wnVlII pDdDcl.

..,_.alIad.

....

- --

"

",

.....

....,

36.'

-- ~~

-,.

r.rgtt Pric. Range


2'04 200S 2006

51.5

100

Sigma-Aldrich's annual
profits have
been stagnating. Net profit reached a
ANNUAL RATES Put
Pal Esfd ... OO high in 1998. Since then. profits have been
lTn.
"' .... lP< .. ) l.fn.
drifting lower on essentially a flat top line.
Sales
9.5%
10.5"
5.5%.
"Cash Flaw"
This year's yrofit will probably be on a par
10.0%
7.0%
P.""
9.5%
8.""
EanWJll'
8.5"
w1th that 0 2000. lncreasing compeddon
Dividends
12.0%
11.5%
5.""
in many of the company's business segBook Value
13.5%
9.5%
8.'"
ments is the major problem, since it raises
QUARTERLYSA1fS (hill
Co.
Full
marketing costs. Moreover. a substantlal
1IIr..ll
Jun.511
Se

.io
llI<..ll
'''or
addIUon of debt (mostly short-term, for ll1898 306.2 294.6 300.4 293.1 1194.3 quldlty purposes) over the last two year.;
1199 In.l 252.8 260.3 252.1 1037.9 has raised interest expense. Unfavorable
3OZ.S 261.8 263.' 2616 1096.3 currency translaUon rates (55% of sales
1175
2001 305.6 293.7
ZB7.1 218
come from abroad) have been another neg1215
lOO2 310
305
JOO
31lO
atlve, as has dilution from mInor acquislEARJlltG5 PER lHARE
Full
CdtIollS. RetwTl on equity has increased over
ond" IIldl Jun.30 Sell Dec.JI
the last couple of years, but that's only be1.64 cause SIAL has used its excess cash flow.
.43
.41
.41
.39
1.47
1!111
.39
.38
.32
.38
plus some borrowed funds, to help buy
1.66
2000
.45
.2
.39
.40
back a whopping 25 millIon shares. And
1.15
2001
.48
.<9
.43
.45
1.15 the share repurchases continue. Sigma is
lOO2
. 5
5
.55
expected to vIsit the capital markets for
ClUARTBlLYDNIlBiOS PAIl C
Full
Co.
another 5200 mil1Ion In debt (taking ad.r.31 J.".3I s.p.30 Dee.3'
vantage of low interest rates) to buy back
1997
.125
.063 .063
25 another five mllUon shares. 1bls may very
28 well take the ROE close to 20% and keep
1198
.07
.rIl -.
1999
.1<5
29
.073 .073 -earnings moving up. bu. It
J! per-share
.155
.078
.Olll -doesn't ellinlnate the fundamental prob_.
.165
.08Z5 .ll825
200'
Cul'TentUab.

40.9
20.2

",.."

....,

35~
24.50

4.

Cap)

31.1
185.9

42.6
Z5.8

12..0

'OGO

26.9

20

'.

P.rcerrt

41.1

'.,

.h......

32.1

23.8

...

".,

IllARKET CAP: S3.a blnlon (Mid


CURRENT POSrrlON
Co ~lLJ
_ ...
43.8
Receivables
193.5
Il1'i'enlory (UFO)
408.5
OIhor
128.8
Cull1lnt Assets
7'74:6
42.0
Acds Payable
Debt Due
20.8

25.9
16.3

illi.Ws tea'ssOJ

..,51
54405
~
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
5.33
5.92
6.57
7.42
Z.57
3.l1S
3.10
W
'.45
1.01
115
UO
.81
.96
.35
. 2
.S<
.10
.12
.80
.96
1.08
.35
.<3
!iT
.65
.28
.11
.12
.13
.15
.05
.06
.01
.08
.09
.33
.28
.31
.15
.18
.36
21
.36
.52
5,1.4
3.71
5.93
129
1.58
3.02
1.99
W
'.<3
99.55
... 6
".11 ,,-" 98.54 98.1 "'.DO ".J< 99."
219
19.5
"'.6
l>.'
".3
24.' 25.1 19.'
1.57
1.65
t.n 1.64 1.48 1.53 1.58 1!>6 1.35
.6%
.1\
.%
.6%
.1%
.1%
1.0'l
.1%
.1%
CAPtrAl STRUCTURE as oUr.som
>l9.' 65<.' 739.4
latal Debt $445.6 mi. Du. In 5 YI'S$J42- , mi.
26.9'4 27.7' 27.1%
LT!JIbt $103.5 mi.
LT Intet'lSl S7.3 mill
26.9
Z65
32.5
112% 01 Cap'g
79.8
1012
95.5
" .. ion Ul.biltty None
35.6% 352% 35.3%
Leu .. , UncapitallUdAnnual
rentals $15.1 mil.
14.611 14.5'
13.5"
320.1
349.6
339.'
,/j
69~
18.1
441.0
511.8 591.1
17.1ft
181ft
Common Stock 75,566,575 shs.
(88'" of Cap'~ 16.~
as tJf 10J3&101
16.1% 18.7ft 18.1'

.........

27.8
15.0

'.'

'" "'

128
56012

22~

1191

..r IT'''""..III,"

J A I

., ,...,'" ..,'"
=:.

29.0

20.9

P 5h

'+~d 11%
1%

J f ....

29.6

"11..

SO
40
HI
Irwkler Decision.

~ ...

26.8
13.9

. . . ReDliR P1Ye Shngll


2.... 15P! 1191

IlETA .75 (J.DO .. MMJI)

~PROJE~~S

NDQ-5L4L
High;

40.221~1IJ22.6(~~: l~)WJ% 1.22 1m' 0.8%

WCfNT
PRICE

S*'cI(s Price 8tabllll)'


Pric:eGrowUI P.mn.nq
earnings PrwdldablftIJ'
I

I '.

75
35
90
:

II:

t I ,

SPACELABS MED, INC NDQ-SlMDI


2 R1i5t1I9I1W1
3 'ooll"O.]
2 '-"""301

TJlEUNSS
SAfm
TECHNICAL
BElA

..i6

(lllO.

Hig~;
Low:

30.8
19.8

LEGENDS

.....::mPrnsa-.

~.a~J"'1!'SSIi:wl

MaM)

2OO4-llI PROJEcn:lNS
Ann, TaIaJ
Prite
GUI
Return
25
23"

....~,h

{"i::sMt1
+55%

17
Insider Decisions

26.8
19.8

28.8
16.5

.DI"t.s'!r __ ,.JIr

29.1
22.3

"

- ,-

24.3
14.0

26.0
18.0

....

20.'

23.1
12.5

.,3

'.3

;'<'11

.. '.

- -- - --

"I

" ,

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
001
0 0 0 0 0 0
000 000 000
InstltutiOMI D.clslons
I1Il1r1

30
24

29
17

7422

'.

......

p.reent

'.

30.'
20.'

Olh..

29.5

Current Liab.
ANNUAL RATES

........
5_

"'1

"Cesh FJow"

5=~

Sooll Value

.....
CaI-

55.7

.....

225.0
16.1%
72
15.8
39...
7.0'4
nB
13J
111.2

63.'
63.'

33.
175.0
37.3

17.4
552

Pat

Esf'd "'DO

.......

.-

4.0"
1B.~
Nil'
Nil

5.0%

-<>.5%

f.Ol'

--

lI'JAIlTBlLT SALES(llilj
lIar.Plr Ju:n.Per Sep.Per Dec.PI

1991
1999

66.5
n.2
68.0
67.5
TO.3
81.2
13.B
75.0
64.3
2lIlIO
61.9
57.6
65.2
82.1
2lIlIl
59.2
81.3
56.9
/2.0
2002
51.0
510 11.0
EARNINGS PER SHARE ..
eo,
IIlr.Per Jun.Per Sep.Per DeePer
1991
d.50
.23
d."
.1'
1999
.19
.32
.27
.26
d.32
.18
2lIlIO
d.33
.01
.fO
2lIlIl
d.18
d.lIS
d.17
.13
2lIlI2
.Of
.Of
.Of
OIIARlBltT DNIlEHOS PAm
e...
enllar 111,.31 JudO
5-.30 DIe.31
llOT
1991
NO CASH IJIY1DENOS
1999
B8NGPAIl

.-

14.0

SY...
4.0%
-17.5%

..
..

13.5\
13.5%

!lIZt.<I1

'.0%
-5.0%

1tYn.

Fon

y27'.2
300.3
2' . 0

2411

Full

y. 57
1.04
. 9
d.30
.3D
Foil

y-

2lIlIl

11= ~

4.
""'"
1 ".
,,,.

..

2522
16.8'
9.'
18.7
39.9%
1.4'4
124D
12.6
161.9
10.8'4
11.6'4
11.6'

..

246.7
15.1'

..

19.2
37.9%0
7.711
134.7
11.9
171.0
10.6%
11.2%
112"

..

2472 ~2B
246.0 265.3
15.211 14.6\ 12.5% 112%
8.6
OJ
8.6
9.'
19.1
20.1
15.1
11.9
31.4\
37.1% 36.711
7.711 7.9'4 6.1'4
4.5%0
143.7 155.1 131.7 120.6
112
14J
13.5
68J
164B
185.4 204.1 196J
9.8% 9.4\
1.4\
5.6%
'0.3"
72"
9.'"
9.8\
7.7'4
10.3"
72"

"."

1.7"

..

"

--

..

2742
'.2%
10.0
d5.4

..

300.3
10.1%
9.6
9.'
352"

MF
120.6
65.1
161.0
NMf
NMF
NMF

136.0
66.1
169.9
5.1\
5.8%
5.8%

"

euslNr::ss: Spacalabl Meda~ Inc. dev9tlps, manulKtures, m.kets, .nd Il!IfYiaIs patient-monilomg and cil'lQl-i'rformati:ln .)'5.
terns lGduc:ls b US8 .. ~
nations. AlID leis 8mblll;;lby monikmg systI!lms. M.IIi8ts tlnJugh combiniSlion of e
direct ulBs organization and i"IdIiIpBndltnldinibuas
kx:oItIiId WI
O\W 70 countries. Spun off miKdy intBnlst II PHA.M1S,Inc. II De-

Spacelabs Medical's anticipated. eanJings recovery failed to occur in the


third quarter. The company :reported a
$0.17 share loss in the september perlod.
1bis figure excludes the lm~act of a $22
mlllion gain on the sale of LMD's headquarters and $18 million worth of charges
relaled LO investment wrltedowns. legal
fees, and a larger provision for bad debt.
The international
divlsion's sporadic
perfonnance
needs to improve for our
estimates to be met in the new year.
Foreign business generated 26% of sales in
the quarter. but has fluctualed of Jate. In
fact, sales fell from $Z2 muUon in the second quarter to just $15 million
In the
latest period. Despite progress in China
and Europe . demand from other AsIan
countries and
Latin America remains
weak.. Overseas' business is more back-end
loaded, though. and the terrorist attacks
may have caused much of the shortfall.
However. dealings wtth foreign governrnents have always been trickier. and furelgn replacement cycles may be a Uttle
Jonger than the domestic one, which Is
showing signs of COmlnfroaround. thanks to
slJghtly better demand
m hospitals.

""
..

249.0
29'4
9.'
114.7
NMF
.MF
138.1
.,2
165.0
NMF
NMF
NMF

II'SllIiL ....

IIl'

h-'

-4.'

-24.6
242
-48 .
642
5".
I ~YALlJEUNEPUB.IIC.
WK~III
'CuIl F1oIr" ~ III
Elninp pII' sh A
DWdsOld'd,..ah
CIp'! .......
, ~ III
Book YIIut pw III

..

i1.",.... ~

... OI.-IlI ........

-uaiII-.yp*'! et:tnniI: ~

....... ""

-.. ... -,

<5ll
lD

51" =1

0.,a_1:;'~1
d10
10 Not "" .. IInlI
37.5% ".5ll IIlCCIHTubit
O.
f.'"
".
1M
11> Not"" .. Cop'
O.
LongT ... 001< (IniI)

,.. ,..

OIF
OIF
OIF
O.

'Oll
'Oll
'Oll
O.

w_.

""~I

Shr.-_I~i
RnnCl'lloWC~'
R_
... Shr. EoUH.
RnInId to Cen Eq
AI Dll'd. ~ NIt Prof

~
~

31."
!l0
1."

o.

.5D
fUS
1.

"0
1.00
OR

"s
,U"
1S.
,4.0

,,-'"
'-'"
ZZO

,..

SQ..
7.0ll
7.5ll
7-'"

.R

C8ITiler 1994. 2000 depreaation 1iIIB: 9."'10. Tweedy, Browne & Co.
ow",
12.8% of lXlITITlDIIMx:k, H8art1and Advisors, 9.5"';
Dimens1Dl1alFund Advisors, 1.9%; 01&.. & Dw., 14.0% (4101 Proxy).
Has about 1,600 .mptI., 15,600sha'eholdl!lrs. CImIn. & CEO: Car1
Lombal'l:lLInc.: DE. Address: 15220 N.E. 40th st., RIlIdm:Jnd,WA

98052. Tel: 425-8823700. www.s~.com.

Spacelabs' ambulatory
blood pressure
monitoring
devices shouJd provide a
more meaninf4
contribution
in 2003.
The Centers or Medicare and. Medicaid
Serv1ces recently approved reimbursement
for these products. which check. the dtagnosis of whlte-coat hypertension. This
name refers to an affliction that strikes
many elderly people. who experience high
blood pressure upon visiting doctors, but
do not have hypertension and are misdtagnased. Although already approved. a doUar
value won't be placed on the retmbursement Jevel until next year. Still, this
represents a $20 mlllion-$50
million
01'"
portunJty over the next five
This equity is now time The stock's
dtsmunt to its book value, a new debt-free
balance sheet (proceeds from the headquarters sale were used lo pay $65 mlllton
in debt), and the prospect of gradually improving hospItal spending may interest
venturesOl1le accounts. However. conservative
investors should
be aware
that
Spacelabs possesses our lowest posSible
ratings for Price Growth Persistence and
Earnings Predictabillty.
Charles C. Moran
December 7. 2001

r;,8rS.

iC!r

"*' ~

.......::...

fA' Da.tBd 1BIl1lgs:. PnnaIy through 1996.


ntptIt dlKllilta.lilll. (B) In rniIiJIII.
Elidudlts nonrecurmg gam (losses) i'l.92, ( Flnaneal dllla pru to 1992 Q2 is pro
~3t!); '94, (13); '95, (131/); '98, ($121): 'gr, forma.
.37' .... IIIij'~1.S ... 2.(11.21)._......
c ZlD1. 'Abe l.De
.
kIe AI'
restMllI. flClllll INleriliI is atIllined rn. 'IIIIK8 blIIitIItd III be miIlIIe _ ill pwit!IlIlIUI:lul. nrmnRi rI
lH PI.JBUSl.R IS ~"fgR
lIlY ERRORS OR OMlSSlOtilS HERE".
ill sn:s, 1Ilr...-..n -. rNrI<UII' .... dII, irtllTlM .~~
Ifl..,

.... .......
...

'I. Tat RETURNlam

.'

... .....
.."

--

..

1<."

42.15

....

.-

..

Uuu,
Uncapitalized Annual rentals $5.4 mil
Pension L1U111tyNona
PIli Stocll None
(100%orcap1)
Common StocIl9.736,706 sIlL

''''

--

--

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as gf 112M1


DUIiIn 5 YI'S$.5 mil.
Total Debt $.5 mil
LTo.btN~
LT Int.rat Ni

MARKET CAP: $100 million (Small Cap)


CURRENT POSITION
11IIlL)
ea",_
2.6
2.6
71.9
RBc:eivebles
85.'
Inventory (FIFO)
7....0
74.6
(]the,
29.7
31.8
180.9
Curnlnl Asssls
191.7
Accts Payable
37.2
22.2
2.0
Debt Due
4.0

2001
2002
1991
9~
1993
1994 199.
1996 1997 199B 1999
2000
23.45 24.03
31.61
25.10
22.68 22.68 232'
~23 28.03 29.13
2'.15
.46
U5
2.63
269
225
2.05
.46
231
263
2.58
241
d.57
1.71
1.78
1.86
1.46
1.04
1.54
1.10
1.2'
d.'9
-"
..
..
..
.. OR
..
O.
--1.4,
1.64
.89
.65
.35
f.IIO
.60
.68
1M
1.01
1.111
f."
11.10
11.80 1U1
17.88 11.04 IUS
15.96 11.58 19.39 19.91 17.42 17.10
9.
,.>< 11.12 10.7
1.
.7
I
'j
..
.. 14.6 ".6
116
16.0
129
15.7
11.7
AV8Ann'I!~KIlO
..
..
.. .89
RIklivI PIE Rdo
.BS
Bl
1.02
.91
.98
.7'
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
~
AV8An., Div'd Y"1IId
"

W_.

.Ism 11(112001

10.'

Spacelabs Medical was founded in 1958


to wort<wi1h NASA, de",'oping equipment
to monik:lr asbtInauts' vital signs. Using this
technology base, monitoring sys1Bms for
acute care patients in hospitals were
designed. The first oommercial product was
re~ased in 1968. After being acquired by
Squibb in 1980, spacelabs was spun 011 to
Westmart<International, a holding company,
during 1987. On June 26, 1992, Westmart<
spun off spaceiabs Medicalto its sharehold8r!, distributing one share of Spacelabs for
each shere of

,.'2

.. .. ..

Ih.,...

30
25
20
1B

JfllAIIJJAS

31

..

T_rg.t Prin Ran~


2000 200.
2006

14.3

""

.....,.
....::~l"""
~ ....

29.0
19.0

, , ,. , ,

..

."

Nil

10.891~mNMF(=~i:)~~NMF~

I~CEHT
PR~E

5eIWEt. ~

Comfla~
Flnanclll Strngtb
$mck'll rice Stability
PriA Grvwth ~ ... Imnc:e

B
55
5

~
UlcI.

fl'll

'.

t I:

I I

STEAK N SHAKE NYSE.SNS


TIIWIISS

2,,,,,",,",

SMEll

3 ........

2......

on

on

PRDJRMIlS

r!

."".

.., F. A.
J

St.

8
1
1

:,~_. 9Ji ~

96~

The first Steak n Shake restaurant opened 1991


in Normal, Il. in 1934. Thelow-priced menu
8.11
featured sleakburgelS, lrie~ and "'akes,
.63
and were cooked 10 order and served on
24
..
china. This service-orien1ed, casual dining
concept was expanded, and a franchise op.41
eration was added later. The company sold
d.33
it5 mid-priced specially restaurants, moslly 13.26
Colorado Sleakh0us8s, in 201IO. Steak n
6>
Shako was reinlXlrporalBd in 1976 and
.2
..
chan9ed iIs name to Consolidated Producls
in 1984, and back to Steak n Shake in 200t
115.4

... -

,...

MARKETCAP: S300 million (Small Cap)


CURRENT POSfTJQN

Ca,\,"'&...

11.1

ReCllivilbles
1",en1D!y (FIFO)

Othe'

2.2
. e
5.5

'.0

5.2

'.1

----r8.6

25.f

CummtAaets

De,,"""

Acds PayatM

18.4

""""

Cumtnl Liab.

---!!!1

13.t1

20.2

23.3

'.6

41"

4"f:1

41.5

7.2
5.'
S.3
10.8
29.2

16.0

'.0

.......

Pa. Est'd'lS-'OO

ANNUALRATES Pat
11Y,..
" ....
(po-"')

n...

ReV8l'1U8S

5.0%

"Cash FkM"
Eaml1g5
Divi:lendII

6.0%
1.5%

8.0%
11.0%
11.5%

..

10.5"

-.

10.0'
10.0'
Nil

31.0%
13.5"
12.5'"
""*V_
,.,
1IUARlBlI.'
REVENIltS
{I
oJIlA
"l:.... ~:PtrIlIr.Ptr Jun.Per Sep.Pa Y..,
Fi~1

84.0
725
.1.0
94.9
'1911 79.D 104.1 BaS
lOGO
89.3 117.8 91.1 103.1
20111
96.6 135.8 106.5 109.1
103
122
145
115
EARNlNG5
PfR 5IIARE
..
"-'
Yoo,
1991

E."

1991
1919
2DIIO
2001
2DII2

....

65.1

bw:.Ptr 1II,.Pt, Jun.Pe, Sep.Per

.14
.16
.18
.14

.15

.16
.11
.20
.21
.22

.18
.18
.21
.21
.23

.19
.16
.17
.20
.22

DNilOOSI\\ID
, "ar.31QUAIl_'
Jun.JO
30 Dec.31

c.~

1017
1998
1.

12.4'

51
33
40.1"

I" .. ,

Sin

NO CASH DIVIIJENCS
8ElNGPAlO

tAleptBmber.
FIS:III
end the Int Wednesday in
SeconcI fscal pIOxl is 16 wks .

312.6
366.5
406.T
441.0
415

,.,

F1....

Yoo,
.fiT
.07

.76
.76
. 2
Full
Y-

7.6

'I

"

'0

..

..

.94
.70

12.46 15.19
73
9.'
.44

..

9.8

126.0 132.5
13.21 131'

1612
13.6'

..

5.1
5~
51
71
40.6% 383~ 36.11
5.'
.1

..

..

46.7%

..

..

..

1.67
1.75
1.13 1.17
1.19
1.66
2.19
126
198
16.53 ""25JiO """2Im" """2IJ.54 .21.99
.64

..

..

-m.84

..

,,5
1.03

..

16>
.95

..

190.1 229.'
2681
13.91 14.3% 1U'
7.0
6.6 10.7
13.0
16.2
10.0
37.8" 37.8% 36.1'
5.3% 5.1% 6.""
d14.5 d121 dU.5

193
1.00

..

312.6

..

..

..

..

218

- -- - _ ..

"
12

10
8

1.28

..

3665

..

BUSWeSS: The Steak n Shake Company (formBrIy Con5Dlidated


Produdsj operates 388 kM-pri:ed calUi1I dirliog NStal.l1lnls (iIeL
56 hnchised) in 17 midwest and SE states (!W1). Units ng. Ibt.
3,800 sqUanI feel, and II1l typiallly open 24 hoIn iI day, ..,.,en
dap a week. Tl'illdilionalIinilld menu incl. 1teakbWgen, chiclen,
fries, end shakes (ug. chect under $6.00). 08mnlilued
mid-

..

1.51
513
.82

..

406.1
11.1~
16.4

22.3
35.4~
5.5"

..

14.7~
14.J1"

..

42.0
'". """
,,,.
31.1

5".

....

..,.
.".""

8.8

12.5

30.4
70.7

r-

2002 ~ALUE U1EPII8 ~C. QUi


11.15 R.... lJIsJ*"lh ,.
2250
!f0
1.35
1.50 Cash FIcNr" pII' It!
.16
.12 Eamil'gs J*" sh
1.2'
Div'ds o.crd pII' III
1.50
1.15 Cop' Sf>ondit ......
l .. 8...............
HO
U.
/J.l1l ICcnman Shl 0utIt'1I C
2'.70
21.15
11.0
Avu AIln
1<0
.56
R.uv. PIEROo
.J5
..
Avu Ann' DiY'dY"1IId
441.0
as R.... lI.n~),.
12.
11."" 11.2"
11""
175
11.0 DIpIKl':;;' (~.)
23.0
21.6 no Not..... ~
35.0
InCOlMTu RIll
35.7'
4.'" Not ... It......
Cop' Iln~)
114.9 d20.0
1125..

..

.,

u.

.~~
w_.
,.,'"

d16.' d22.5
27.2 40.1 29.6
135.5 152.1 165.8
12.8~ 12.1% 11.5%
14.6%
14.6%

...

... TOT. RETURl111ln

..

.61
29.38 29.10
22..
11.6

14.1'11 12.1'4
11.6 14.1
19.1
19.8
35.01
36."
6.3%
5.4"

4.~%
d5.1
.6
36.1
163
38.
34.6 31.2
19.1
~2.6
57.1 93.0 115.~
17.0% 16.5'
14.2%
15.6% 14.1'
36.41 23.5" 22."
17.4% 17.1%
36.~" 23.5" 22."
11.4'
17.1'"

.-

25
20

'.

11

.56

..

..

--

..

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19~1~~~1'001


10.12
1.39 9.15
7.41
1.69 9.40 10.18 12.47 1.04
.17
.69
.19
1.11
1.33
.66
B2
.94
1.15
.32
.33
.1
.67
.16
.46
.49
!09
~7
55
.14

..

Target Price Range


2004 2005 2006

. 6

... ..

ijj

6.3

"'1

.'

"'."

Nil

11.6

12.0

1'1'1,.,1'

--; .. .. ..

~
2.8~ 3.3%
114.1 d1
d2.2
511 457
41.0
U
11.1
114.'
14.7% 14.91.
'1.'"
.. 235.6% 46.'"

..

19.2

0 71 DIVlI
YlD

"

"1111

PHAm.

11.2

8.\

.. 235.6%

7/4101

6.3

RElATM

18.8

12.3

n'

"' ...:J......JJ/

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE.s of 1141111


Total Dl:bI $37.5 mil. Dut In 5 YIS $11.9mI
LT nterat $3.1 mil.
LT DIM $32.9 mil
Ind. $1.4 mil. captalimd leases.
(LT irtI!reIt earned: 12.8x: kltal interest
COVI!IIiIge:
10.&)
(17% ol'Cap'l)
lAuD, Uncap!bllil:lCIAnnual ren1a1s$11.8 mil
P.nslon UablUly None-No defined bensf"1Iplan
Pfd Stock None
Comma Stock 28,129,996 slls.
163%of CaP')
uofBIM1

10.3

..., oc:.'"
""

8.1
'.3

.u idal!'S lecrSJiatl
00000001
.'"L.L",r1 . 1
00170
0 0 0
02020115
Institutional Decisions
a..
la2.t
ZQ2.1 P.rcent . .
....,.
31
32
31 .h..... ...~~
trlldecl
2.0-

5.1
3.7

'.3
2.8

,"'" on

Ann'I latal

I~GaIn~lR18"
lblm

Price
20
..85%
14
+30%
Insider Declaiana

3.5
1.7

1.~1
1.0

lIedilll:

LEGENDS
9.!11"ClshftlJl"'p'lh

R!!IIliwI= Prict
lll'llo
12IU
11l'1lo
12191
l(Rl, Div 12192
lmlo DiY 11!l4
12$4
1a Div 12195
lll'1o Di'I 1/91
5.fDr-4 ~
12m
5-1Dr-4,p1
lV91
llJ'Jiio[)iY ll/!!1

11""'

TECHNICAl. 2 .....
Im .so o.oo_lIblUI)

"~
0.7 I

Hlgh'l
Low:

TIli I
10731i.
Inll 4.1)

RAm 134(

11.0

RECfNT

P~CE

13.2%
13.2%

..

,.,'"

,.,. ~=::-"II\~I.."
117 Shr.

.,.

11.0%

RftIm on TCllII::'
It'" Rnn on SIr. Eq .
11.'" RmIMd to COllI Eq
AI DiY'dslDNIl Prof

Ift:sd specialty

50.'

'"

11.""

,,""
,,""

reslaLr.illnt operation n flSCll 2000. '00 depree.


rode, 5.s%. Has abl18,OOO employ., 12,125 sM111d
... OfJdir. own
23.2% cI ammon, incL E.W. KIlley, 12.7'" (4m spa::ial prm:y).
Cmm.: E.W. Keley. Pres. & CEO: Ala.n8. Gnan. Inc.: IN. Addr.:
SODCenby Bldg., 36 South Penns)'lY2lnia SW8t, Indianapolis, IN
48204. Tel: 317-633-4100. IntIlrnIlt WWW.sm.knshaka.a:lm.

Steak
to strengthen' local and regional managen Shake"s fiscal 2001 (ended
September
26th) eantings of SO.76 a ment staffs and to boost restaw-ant proshare were one cent better than we duetivity are under way_ The company Is
had forecast, and matched. the prior year. also stepping up Its marketing activities,
Share net was bolstered by light expense with more local television advertising.
controls and. importantly. a reductJon in Management Is not issuing any sharethe share count. SNS only managed a eanrlngs guidance beyond the first quarter
0.1% improvement
in
fourth-quarter
of fiscal 2002, which Is expected to at least
comparable-restaurant sales. but that was match last year's SO.14. Our estimate is
enough to extend the company's remni of SO.15. For the full year. we have reduced
consecutive quarters of increased comps to our eam.ings forecast by SO.03,to $0.82.
15. 1be fourth quarter (and subsequent Franchising
may well play a larger
weeks) were severely hurt by the terrorist role in future expansion plans. In addlacts of September 1) tho as restaurant traf- tIon to the 18 oompany-owned.restaurants
fic declined by 4% in the weeks immedlate- scheduled to open
In RscaJ
2002. SNS
ty following.
For the full year, though, revplans to add at least two frn:nchlsed.' units
enues advanced by nearly 10%, which in- to the 56 currently in operation. Manageeluded a comparable-unit sales gain of ment is also looking to build its stable of
2.5%, that was helped by some selected franchisees (now at 15), who nm the Steak
menu-price increases last year.
n Shakes situated in noncore markets.
Prospects for the current year are less 'Ibese shares are tim.ely for the year
certain. Although sales have Improved a ahead. though we think a note of caution
bit in recent weeks. management remains is warranted. until the near-term operating
concerned about business in the months picture is clearer. The stock's appredatlon
ahead. Because some of Its units are un- potential to 2004-2006 is just about in line
derperformlng. SNS has slowed Us expan
with the \4due Line median. based on our
sion in order to focus on programs to en- current earnings scenarto over that time.
hance existing operations. New initiatives
Maurice Levenson. CFA December 14,2001

04 .... d specialy f8Stalnnts. (8) PmIiIIJ counting change (6) 1Irw:1 ~1IIi:Jn I81.Iernent
)ellS
1llg5. tmJugh
fiscal '91, dikitBd art.. '99 (4j). Exd. IlOI1f8C. IoSS8S mn discorrlilu&d
others in 12 wks. l!8Ch. Rsvs. incl hndlise
rest!tBCI to reIled 6f: iI preopening aJS1s as D- oper.: '00, Sf. Next. egs. due mid-Jan. (C) In
ftes and oIher ~.
'00 I1lSmtad to refI9d: ctmIlI. 1t9 exd. one-&n8 aITl d1arves b 81:- mirDns, adjusted b stodl: dhf'idends and splits.

Com~

Flnaneilll Stranglh

SlDch rice SlIIblltr


Price Growth P'ersistnct
Eamillgli P.-.dIdahiIty

8_
80

75
95

To subscribe call180083300~6

THOR INDUSTRIESHigh:fNYSElHO

3 Rl5edlTl1lQl
3 ...,",,,,
WITf
TECHNICAL2 ..... ,""'"
lWEUIIBS

BETA

3.0

10rr
4.2

r:e.

~a

illXIes

....t1'..

...
000
0 000
0 0
o 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
o 1 0 0 001 0 0
1
Institutional Decisions'
W..
lQ2tt1 1Q2111
.."
25
29
3J Percent
..I..
24
23
26 5h.....
..'I;:"
5241 5293 S427 t...dItd

Il"%.J

TolaJ Dl:bI None


milion.

Pension Uability None

~~'At

(100""

,...

MARKETCAP: $42S million (&nal Cap)


CURRENT POSrrlON

1101L1

63.1
12..

Receivables

(LIFO)

5.9
225.3

6..

...,

2O~1

Cul11tntAswts

Accts Payable
DebtDua
Othe<

--

30.1

01_,,"'1
Sol..
"Cash Flaw"
Elmilgs

v_

Dividends

.....
,
y-,

Pat
till\.
17.5'"
204.0%
2B.0%
4.0%
16.0%

49.8

30.0 Thor

'Isl

81.3

Est'd'll-'01

Of...

11.0%
14.5'"
17.5%

7.""

..""

10.0%

a.%
I~""

14.5%

,...

EARMfGS PER SHARE

y-,

II.

2tI01

2102
CoJ.

.60

.55

.63

.70

21

.51

.10

A5

.84

FIsc:a1

y-,

715.
806.8

194.0
826.'
175

F_

,..

E_ Oct.31 hnJl Apr.lO J,'JI


1991
.9
24
.10
.58
1...
.57
.~ .13 .78

y-,
2.53

Z96
U.

.80
.70
.f1

".

llILtR7EllI.Y
Ill'IIlENDS
PAIl"

FilII

end.,

lIar.31

Jlln.30

Slp.3D

OK.31

y-,

lfil
1991
1199

.02

.02

.02

.02
.02

.02
.02
.02

.02
.02

.02
'~

'~

'~

'~

.08
.08
.08
.08

.02

l"1
""""" i'.,,,

F"IX8I)W1"ends July 311l.


B Ba.d Dn IMRollfl sh.es Dutstandi1g
Ihrough fISCill1997, basi: tt.!!lIl!1". EDJdes
"9B, $O~ Next ..... "' ......
CI Z1Jl1.'ftlIIe li1e

,...-

..

- -- - -.1"11

lilt. AI'

meNd.

THE.PUBUSKll:IS~SIll.~Nt1[RRORS
~ I ..
lie
ra*. stnIt a IIII5iIMIlI i1

32

,.

2.

20

..

.'

'.

_,I'll

I."

...-.
""'"
,,. ,6> no;

1".

'".
,,,.

1994

'2

.. TO'[ RE1URtII IID1

..

"

....

...... ,...
,...

,.

...

-10.6

18.5

".1

..
".

..

.U
..

..

..

,.,

..

..

~""

..

,to

'P"....

.,

...

~."

1.4,

llILtR7EllI.Y
SAlISIIIIiI.J
E_ 0cL31 Jln.31 Apr.30 111.31
1991 165.5 134.5 206.' 208.1
189.2 165.5 223.7 22U
221.0 193.1 2".0 235.3
2tI01
209.8 113.2 221.0 222.9
2Q02 :'5
115
20lD
Z35

.....,

Target Price Range


200. 2005 2006

..

..

..

..

..

=
'"
... ~~~ s.-...\",;I) no
I"" R.... '" E...lt. '"''
"'"
"'"
'U"
'"

HI
HI
71.1
80.1 95.9 101.9 119.2 122.4 1382 165.4 1952 219.9
StIr.
1.4% 11.8% 13.9't. 16.1% 12.8% 13.5'" 14.6% 16.D".4 18.6% 18.5f. 12.1%
RRim an TvlII tlp'l
of Cap'~
11.81 13.9% 16.1% 12.1~ 13.5% 14.6% 16.0% 18.6" 18.5'
1~1~
S1v.
HMF 10.9'
15.6' 11.810 12610 13B% 15.3% 18.0% 18.D".4 11.1% 11... R.alnMIID Cen Eq
12.6'
102~
I~
7~
I~
7%
6~
3~
AI Diy'dslo NIl: Prof
7131".1
4\
3\
III
BUSINESS: Thor Industries, Inc. manufactures a wile range fA Dutchmen Mfg., 6191: National Coach, 1001; FOU' WOOl Inc..,
1072
47.5 mob hcmes and tm'8I nim i'I Ihe U.S. and Canada through b 6192; Skamper Corp., 3195; Kcmb1 Trai&r.s, 4195: and ~n
00.3
AnIre8rn, Gemnl Co8c:h, Dutctwmn Mfg., FoIl' Winds, Thor Ind. M'" Coadl, 2J98. '01 depr. ma: 7.7%. Has about 3,455 lImP.,
'.0 West. and Thor Ind. of PA sUbsi:liiJrias.Thc.I' is the SIlICCInd-liIfgest195 lhar8hok1ers. OIls. & dn. own 46.1% 01 sb::k (10.01 PmJYI.
238.0 manufachnr
of R V. nd the IargesI buill .. of small- and mid-siz8d
ChnM., P1M., & CEO: W.~ F.B. T'hornpSDrl. ifIc.: DE. Ad~.: 419
57.3
BUI IUbs. 9188; West Pike St., JaIDort Centl!l", OH 45334. Till: 937-596-6849.
- - buses i'I North AIMri::a. AcquQd E~

...........
_.

79.0

CunentUab.

Book

78.0
51.9
89.5

68.'

Co"" ......

ANNUAL RATES

20.0

35.a
19.7

30.
19.1

~.6

Common Stock , 1,9 16,460 shs.

~nIory

32.0.
22.3

199~996
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 C VALUE UHf. PlIB .. ICt. 04-41
38... 36.55 .~10 ~21
7... Wapwlh A
51.12
58.61 66.38 74.58
It.fl
1.17
1.53 1....
~66
"Cuh Flow" por III
1.62 1.83
W
~801
3.~
~75
U,
J5
120
110 e.tW'lg1 per III III
1.03 121
1.<3 1.81
~53
~98
~IO
.08
.08
.01
.Of DWd' Dld'd pi!' III C
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.Il
.1.
J2
.38
1.05 CiIJ' &poncIngpor"
.15
.17
.61 1.16
U5
7.14
sll6
ID7
9.14
10.02
11.32
1362 16.29 11.~ '1." Boak YIIue pII' Ih D
'W
1.
.7 0IINIl0n Shs OU1sfg II!: 11.10
1.
1
12.14
15.3
la 13.0 10.1 11.1 12.9
1.7 '0.'
'.1
A'll ....
.801
.63
lsr
57
.59
.M
.65
RIIItIft PIE Kilo
.J5
.6\
.5\
.3~
.3%
Avg
An .., DiY'd YIIId
.6%
.7~
.5\
.3~
.3%
.1lI
140.9
273.4
"U 491.1 562.7 60~1 624.4 115.6 BOO.I 594.0 826<
"III
..17~1~'
~
,1i..J.
1.6i~
6.5'1
5.B%
6.5%
5.6'1
~ 1."
7.411
'.9% 5.3% 5.5" 5.8'1,
,.7
1.6
3.0
.5
6.0
U
.5
3.7
to
'.3
0_=11)
,to
.6
U
11.3 ".0
16.1
11.8
222
38.1 38.1 26.7 ,1.8 NIiPruIl
38.6~ 41.5% 39.K
3B.I~ .1.0l' 40.6" ~2~
41.3%
38.3% 41.0% InaneTubti
4f.D'%
,.,%
.4\
V~ 3.'~
11~
3.2~
H~ V~ 2-"
Hot ProIt MqIn
3.1~ 4.0'1
3."
19.1
292
61.6 99.1 123.1 138.9 150.1
m
W_g
CiIJ' (lnlll
56.' 55.1
7"

..

Pfd Stock None

:j1f

'.

....:

4.~_
U

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as of7131~1

Leasn, UncapitlllDd Annual nmtals$l.a

P 7 ..
. 1,,1"".:'
1-" i ":'

\.'
"~

"'.;;Jl" ,

Thor Industries is a successor to a company of the same name that was fanned on 13.11 20."
July 29, 1980, 10 acquire the Airstream OM
.20
.86
sion of Beatrice Companies, Incorporated.
.06
.n
Ailstream was founded in 1931. Thor In
.06
.08
dustries completed an initial public offering
.08
.15
on January 10, 1984. The offering was led
380
5.34
by Shearson and tho shares were traded
10.15 1 .
over the counl., untilAugust 29, 1986, when
19.4
11.8
Thors common md< began trading on tho
5.07
.n
Now Vorl<Stock Exchango.
1.3'
-"

..

17%

JJ

.....

29.7

23.0
13.e

100
110
54

l~sMwI

It"~l
R....
:':t """
45
7%
DJF

17.5
10.8

. _.. ~-.we

Am'lTaIII
+85%
+30%
Insld., Decisions

14.5
'0"

20.'
12.5

l-b'2 5JII 5.'32


3.4Df-2 ~
419.

PROJECTIONS
65

18.6
82

19.1
10.0

LEGENDS
9.!11l;I~f""p5ll
PrCe s.engll

.liD ('1.00- MaIlIi)

2_

4'~T

Law:

0.2%

EM
IrP~CE
35.o01~11014.6(=':tl) ~J%0.86~

.~

,~

Industries

finished
off fiscal
31st)
on a down
note. Indeed, the company posted a 25%
year-over-year drop In its year-end tally,
on a more mooest 8% decrease in sales.
1bis lackluster performance is a direct reof the
overall malaise
sui.
has
that
plagued the recreational vehicle (RV) maI'k.et over the last year or so. Our1ng the
middle of 2000, the industry began to feel
the effects of an Increase in interest rates,
lower consumer confidence levels, relatively high gasoline prices, and excess inventory.
And we look. for the tough dmes to
continue during fiscal 2002. Over the
last few months, recreational
vehicle
demand has come under additional pressure ~ a result of record low consumer
confidence levels and concerns about a
pending recession In the United States .
What's more, fears that the September
II th terrorist attacks will push the coun
try into a recession., combined with rising
layoffs, have recently led. to the largest reductlon In consumer spendint In more
than 14 years. As a result, we ave pared
our earnings expectations for the current

Zool (ended

July

year by SO.30, to S2.60 a share.


Thor continues to use its strong baJance sheet to make selective acquisitions. The company re~ntly announced
that it had penned an agreement to acquire Keystone RV Company, the fastestgrowing company
In the RV Industry.
Acording to the terms of the $145 million
deal, Keystone will receive 55% of this
amount in cash and the balance in lbor
common stock. We look for the combined
enlity, which will be the lar~
manufac
turer of travel trailers and
wheels, a
major manufacture:l'" of rnotorhomes, and
the largest
builder
of small and m1dstzed
buses in the country, to have sales of spproximately
S 1.2 bUlion. The deal ought '0
be conswnrnated by mid-November, and
In keeping with lhUue Line convention, we
will not include Its effects on our earnings
presentation until that time.
Thor shares are an average selection
for the year ahead. And, despite our
forecast
of strong
sales
and
eamIngs
growth 3 to 5 years hence, the stock's appredation potential OVerthat period is below that or the WUue Line median.
Kenneth A. Nugent
November 9, 200J

_ ..- -

due 6Ite Nov.


Apri, JIlIy, October.
IC) Next divilend meeting about 0.:. 411. \D) Indudes i'TtBng1bles. In 2001: $16.6 rnIion,
Goes ex about Dee.. 131h. Appn:lxm.tB divi1.39IIh.
"''''
po,."... ._
,.,. _
d _.."
CElI'm ... ' .. _........
Faea.t IMIIlri.II is IIII:UIIRd frunr, ~
~
ORQMlSSlOHSH(RrIN.
This .........
...
CI lIIIB ...
lllSeIIIb'
~

..,......

is""'" ~.....-s

UI be flIIiIIde ...
il.sft:Iy .. Pnoibln-.naaC4'
II
.
.
li' IKIIlIir:

.....

GI
Vllt.
n.IlII~~pIlI
CI

...a

"lIdut1

Camplny.
FIn.nciII SllWIgth
S1ocllF:'sPrlce Stlbilily
PrIca GI'1JWthPaniltMc

B+

70
60

.....

I',

II:

II'

THORNBURG MTG. NYSETIIA

TIIEUNESS

1 Rli5elIlnJlaI

sr.rm

3 "'In..,

17.B
. 8

15.9

7.'

24.6
15.9

215

14.1

,..

18.5

U.4

9.8

7.3

7.1

9.5%
Target Price Ran~
2004 2005 2006

16.5

9.'

'"
32

Rebn
22%
U"

low:

17.5
14.1

50

TECHNICAL
2 ..... ,.... ,
afA .n n.oo-1QrkS)
2_
PROJECTlO~~.
Ann' Ta1II
Price
GaIn
....
30
\ ......
Low
20
+20%
Insid.r Deciaians

I~ 16.821~oo8.4(~'::~)W~ 0.50~
High:

2.

"

20

.n

I.

18

,11'1'

12

..,

D J F IJ " II J J A
000000000

022001030

f--+--+----jf--+--+.c..,c-f---,-,I---+.--,-,+-++--I---+--+----jf--+--+--+
....

S~
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
IMti\utional
D'Id&ioRa
4Ql:.. 1m.! 202.1 P.rcent 11.0
5
14
33 ana,.. 8.0

tI_
:WS:.1

17~ ,rJ ~ tradMI .0

Thornburg Mor1gage. Ine. began opera


tions on June 25, 1993 under the name
Thornburg Mortgage Asset Corp. The company issued 5.5 million shares at $15 a
share ill iIs IPO. The lead underwrite", were I---+--+-rr~_T.c;;;-hrr.r+-;n;;+.""'ct-~;+~:+.;;;;:.+~T.i---<i~+;:::~~s.::;;,,~j_;:;:;;rl
Montgomery
Securities and
Kidder
Peabody. A second publ~ otIenng in 1993,
01 fivo million shares, noIled tho company
proceeds of $85.1 milion.
~

l-::=t=t~!t~ttjj~5~:S~~i!JeiOjtJ;j~~~~~~~~~

CAPITAL

STRUCTURE

.. DfIl3CU01

Born,"'. $4l}2,5.6ml.
(92'-of Debt + Equity)
Lases, Uncaplblliud None
Pension UabilitJ None

Pfd Stock $65.8 mil. Pfd Div'd $6.7 mill


2,760,000 shs 9.68% cum.; COrrY.no 1 sh d em.

rz" of oebt + Equily)

Common Stock 21.863,000 Ih,.


(6'" of Debt + Equity)
MARKET CAP: $315 mllDon (&naIl Cap)
EARNtNGS F-.cTORS

....

1---"+......:-+=ii-I--.-i.C+....+.... ioi-h-ii+..;i-I--T.~_.;;.+-"";+.';~~~i7.':';';;~h~'-l

5.5"

BUSINESS: Thombll"g Mor1gage, Inc. is a real estaIe irrvestmenl


specialilJllg in the purt:hase of high-ilualiy adjustablHate
mlgages. Opemes two rlrlancng subSidina
A l1il:1 subsidiary
began crigilllling hcmi loans in 2000. To d*. dnd.1lInding cerIirqtiJr! hill been obtained in 321U1:fiI5, ABa Sll'Vices ell'llal par.
tion of bens. Has 20 employees, who an in fad I'1Itai1ed through e

management agreement wlh Thombulg Mmgage Mv'5Dt'f Corp.


Has 14.300 stClCIdJOIl:klr$.
Otfan
& []ft!dOr!ii own 4.71 d sIlD.,
(-11 Proxy). Chainnan end CEO: GIIJ8ft Thomtug. President
and COO: lMry A. GoIltSbI8. lIE.: MD. Addrua: 119 East WIFe)'
Sl Suile 201. Santa Fe. New MUICD 87501. Till.: 505-889-1900.
InlBmst: www.thomburgrnartgage.com.

t':n~h...ngesI$mllt)~
It's been about as good as it gets for
BDIT1JM1gs
-85.9 -206.4 301.5 Thmnburg
Mortgage lately. The REIT
ANNUAL RATES Put
Pat &t'd ... 10 Is riding the wave of interest-rate reduclPfdl.....
lhl lITIS,
illS,
'14-'11
tions by the Federal Reserve to nearLoans
::
record profits. Thornburg reUes on short0i'RSerids
_.
....0% 13.5" teem funding to support its portfolIo of
Bl:dVaIue

-2.0%
2.5"
adjustable-rate rnortgages_ That puts it in
CaElOAHSlS""
Full the light place at the right time as the
endar lIar.31 Jun. 30 StD. 30 Dee. 31 Y.. r central bank has lowered the cost of nearilli
4826 4971 4853 4268
teem boJTI)w1ngs nine times s1nce the be1199 3966 .. "
4457 4326
glnnlng of the year. AsseIS usually reprice
20ClI 439& 4022 4UJ5
4139
within a few months after a cate cut, but
2001 4301 .4299 4315 4385
the series of rate reductions in 200t has
2D02 .uoo .uoo 44DtI.utIO
allowed margins to widen steadily.
Ca].
EARNINGSPER SHARE A
Full
Steps are
being
taken to diminish
.ndar ".r.31 Jun. 30 &.p.30 Dec. 31 Y.... problems
associated
with a rise
in
1998 .42 .XI
.14 d.08
.75 pcepaynteots.
Homeowners refinancing
1199
.14
.25
.25
.24
.88 their mortgages
Is what got 'Thornburg
2DOlI
.27
.25
.25
.28
1.05 into trouble back in 1998.
another period
2101 .42
.46 .51 .51 1.JO of falling short-term interest cates. Pur2ID2
.52
.52
.53
.53
1111 chases of ARM securities were typically
CaJQUARTBlLYDIVOENDSPAI)IIIfj" full
made at a sizable premium back then, so
.ndar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sen.3O Dec.!1 Y.r when loans were paid early, the premium
1197
45
48
49 .so
1.92 had to be written. off. adding to expenses.
i..
50
375'30.23
141 The rompany has reduced this problem by
1199 :23
.23
:23.23
:92 pl.Urllaslng packages of ARM loans with
2DOI .23
.23
.23.25
.94 sUm premiums attached.
2101
.25
.30.40
Direct lending
is also proving cost-

effective. Thomburg stan-ed ortgInating


loans last year, and Is now Ucensed to conduct lending operations In most states. Effident
operations have enabled. the company to proVide appUcants with low-cost
funding, attracting quite a following and
building a subslantial pipeline. There is no
premiwn on loans generated in-house, elther".Direct lending Is proving a nice camplement to loan purchases overall.
An equity offering was recently compJeted..Thornburg Mortgage sold 5.5 mtlUon shares fOt'516 each in August. That's
a vote of confidence from the investment
commWllty, since, fOt' the most part, only
companies with promising business models
have been able to tap the capital markets
lately. Thomburg Mortgage
has built up
its asset portfoliOwith the proceeds.
The high-yielding
stock remains topranked
for Umeliness.
The extended.
rate-cuttlng cycle Is a plus for this
inter"est-.-ate sensitive
issue.
Margins
should benefit through
mld-ZOOZ as a. resuit. All told, we estimate a moderate rise
In earnings and dIv:1dendsin 2002. on top
of the dramatic lump In 2001.
Robert MitJcows1cJ. Jr:
October 26. 2001

Margln("')
E8rTW1g ASs8t Yield

Cosl offunds

1191
5.92
5.62

Yjek:l-Cosl Ma~i"

n3ll

6.82
6.54

020

6 mos.
lII3G/Ol

'.n
n96
ISmos.

-l:~~

=a:

.
l4.0~ 84.6~ &8.9~ 19.3~ 19.8% 89.3% 86.9% 81.31 15.", 11.0% IntCOIltDGnlumc
71",
..
..
~6
lU
105
25.7 '1.4
'l2.7
25.6
291
510
".0 NoI""'IiI's..-1
11.0

21.3% 14.alI 9.1\ '6J1\ 16.6\


7.9\
9.8\ 10.'\
lU\
213\ Nol""'"......
21J11
..
136U 1751J 201aD 2755.4 4691.1 4344.6 4376.0 41901
44'5
W5 Tolal"" .... 's..-I
4175

11!16.1 1618.4 1799.3 2473.3 4280.2 3996.4 3930.5 3124.1


4DOO 4D5D Borro'llL4ngII"')
4fOO
.
..
170.3 120.0 16M 2221 3581 31U
310.9 3175
4IJ>
4fS ... , ... .;(lod)
4JO

..
.
..

..
.1%
.>ll "'_
...... "ln~~ ;I) .".

..

1.0
J
~O
~9
11
.7
1.0 Lou Prvv!olon Ilnlll
1.0

.-a.O
3Sll
~
NnLo.""IIIIIl.l~
100
;:.+......
.
12.5% 6.8% 8.0"J, 8.1\
1.6% 111
1.1% 1.6"
1.9%
1.0" Shr.Eq.toTobilAaMII
lO%
.
.
4.8~
2.3%
2.1%
3.31
3.2% 211\
2.2~
2.3~ 5.",
G&A&ntDGroulnc
5.0'%
, .. --"+......:+-';;:.;..j~~+-~'+~~--'.::~~~+-~~--':;~~~+-O~~~""~~~'__jf.7~-!
r.
..
.19"
.681
.52"
.93"
.881
.52to
.581
.101
1.19; 1..en; RIIIwn on TDIJII"aNts
US"
..
.
1.51
9.9'
6.5% 11.61 I1.R
7.3'
81'
91\
13.ft
15.5% RI1lIrnon 5m". Equtty
1lG'%

trust

~:=~~:

Ie

(AI ~ased on d~
Ih8r1!!s CItlt:Dndilg. Nul, ~B) Ne:rI dWilend meetilg l8Ie JIInUllry. Next t SIlxt pu2Chase pBn lIYailahie.
&af1IlfIgS
l8pa1 dllll liII8 ....nuary.
I ~ da18 e.ly Feb. Paymenl dates -.Iy Feb.. It) In mliDns.
M.,.~Aug.. and NCIY.
I
lII()Widend reiIYemleni plan mllll.bIe.
,
Cl :tJJ1. YIUe Ute I'\dIIIiIg.
.. AIriQIU fI5IMll. h~
IIIIIeriaI no oIIlIined tram _1dMd
to lie niIae ... i5 .....
...."
--.s

~."tild.

THf.PUBUSlRISMlTRESPONsIIL[lORINY[~ORCXIIISSIOHSH[RfW.11Ii!I~6sftlyb~5_.nlIII~

_.Nopert

a11.,R~-*.

....

~i1I11J

............

lIIllIa.. .medb gn. ..

.....

:ampanTa Financ~ ShngUI


stack"s trice StalltJ
Prb Growth PaniiteltCl
Eamlngs Pr.dietalllltt,

IlI1i11t11i1gIllJ
..... a~,....,IIr'Ib.JI'lllICL

~
I

".

II:

B
65
20
45
II',

TRIARC COS, INC NYSElRY


lHEUNESS

- ""'"
3....,,,,,,,,,

l".r

4A
I.'

LEGENDS
20.0 I "elsll Ft-"'

",,",,"""'" ee~YM
}

15.3
'.0

./

Ann' lobi'

Gain

26.1

,.i.N,\.~
'"
%
-5%

,1,,,11

DecLsions
J f " J J A I
00020
1 001
000
0 0 0 0 0 1
D 0 0 000
1 0 1
InstitutiDnal Decisions
tm.. 1az.t 20211 Plfcut

.,.....

9.5

,",

ti

~ shar"

"

1',.
"

1l
15. _
'D, -

Stoc:l None
Cammon Slotk 20,376,692 shs.

(52,," ofC8p'l)

IS of1Gf31111
MARKET CAP: $500 million ISmail C.p)
CURRENT POSrrlON

313..5
79.3
61.7

Recuivab1e5

Inventory (FIFO)
Othe'
Current Ass8ts
AI:ds Payab~
Debt Due

58.'

422
139.0
23t1.7

CuI11ln1UBb.

~""'(po'~' Pal

1ITn.

1911
1991

z001
ZOOZ

628.2
IV

10.3
935.1
11.9
17.0
309.8

13.3
658.2
3.4

338.7

.. .5%
-5.5%

..
--

--

23.

'Tn.

...'"'- -

-13.5%

.......

ZOOO

2101
2IOZ

NIl
-..NAIF
Full
ClJARTERlI RFI'EJI\IES 111111"

lIar.31

Jun.30

23Z..

Sep.30

DK,.31

m.D
2<7.0 163.1
178.2 250.8 250.7 17<.3
35.6 26.'
28.7 'l/.Z
36.T 39.6
29.6 Zf,1
3lO
310 30.

.05
.1
.05
.16
.02
.22
.IZ d.1D
.3<
.20
.28 ".30
111
.Z1
.IM
d.08
.f.
.20
.20
.15
IlUAIlroa.l .NIlfIIDS I\UJ

Ca~
end.' Mar.31 Jun.30
1!l9T

1198
1199

NUF

MlF
MlF

-10.0%

EARHlNGS PER SHARE A a


Ca~
.nd.r MU.31 Jun.30 s.p.30
Dtc.31

1198
1199

87.B
115.0

Est'd'll-'.

Put

ANNUAL RATES
Revenues
''Cash FJow"

910.2
14.6

--

23.1

477.6

OlhlV

C,,,
.....

200D 1Gt3OIGt

'199

ca~~

Sep.30

Dtc.31

Y-

815.0
85<.0
118.'
135

'"Y-

FUll

.36

.Z6
d."
.15

.8'

Full

Y..,

NOCASHDIVIDENDS
88NGPAIO

ZOOI
2001

l7J.,Y,
....syr...bef"._to
of .prior
"1M. IB)

..

..

NM!'

NMF
133.6
<68.7

17.5

Pfd

~JJs
Book V.lue

22.1
14.8

28.3
12.4

Tarv-t Pric. RanQII


2004 2005 2006

26.6
21.8

28.0
16.8

"':1_'6"

307!
68.5
721
NIF
N>oF

d35.4

..

NMF

.-

..

..

hi

...

..

:'..

..' .

..

..

..

.......

" Tot RE1UIII11IO'1


rna
I~.
I""

."

""
~.,"

.~.

30.4

429

3~.

70.7

102.6

...

..

2.J<
.69

1.01
13

1.39

"."..

".M

J1.W

..

..
..

..

...

..
..
..

..
..

_.

.S<

.37

"""
685

..

..

... '4'"
,,. ......:::
,..
,..""
... ,

.S<
dS.61

10.48

".7.
7:l5

3.0<

.4.19

!l8'2 6812 815.0


.n 12."" '.1'4 1.4.41
602
352
52.7 11.1
1137.0 dB5 d20.6
112

85-.0
14.4%

118.9
32.5"

352
7.0

5.3

'

..

11842

..
..
-.
.. NMf NllF
.. 1352 1682
.. 612.1 783.3
.. <0.0 20.7
.. '.011
.11
.. NMF NIF
..
.. NMF
..
..
..

.. 57n

..

..

..

d102

..

70.1%

..

..

NM!'

Dwell Dtd'c1 per III


.25 C",1Spondio, .. III
c
17.00 800IIVIM,...
Il,;GIIlftlOn l)hl wilt II 0::
1'"'- lAY' An" p,.. ...
R*tJv1 PIE Rdo
~
AYgMil" lb'd 't'IIId

135

21.'"

,..
...""
...""
'-'II
~O

._-:::"'

RlMnual",j'"

1004nin01_
1141_ $nI
...CCIfIITu ....

w_.

fO.DS NoI_1IqIn

596.'
291.7

530

sse

zt5

2822
NMF
NMF
NMF

3Z5

zt5 I.aItIT"" DobI ($nI'


35IJ "". 'E""" l$nIi

.'" R....
,.'" ~""
~""

"."
I.'"

..

..

HI

- ..

121

n
NM!' NMF 1.41
1952 130.1 206.' 237.9
500.5 604.8 6!l9n 850.9
6.8 <4.0
10.9 d166.1
2.4\
6.9\
6.61
'.011
..
NMF NMF NM!'
..
N>oF N>oF NMF
..

H'
.15

24
20
12
10

1995 1996 199T~8


1999 2000 2001 2002 C VALlIE lJIoIE PUB lie.
28.11
.75 7.00 R"'UUI*Ih A
39.59 33.10 21.26
Ul
21.82
.78 1.48 d.O'
d.18
1.00 Cub Aa.r- pi!' III
1.59 HZ
.25
d1.24
16
.15 E.1IingI per Ih A.
d.28 d.68
.36
d."

..

80
50
40
32

I.

,
.'

Cop' ("'",

RtUn an

'*E,ui1,
Cap'

<II ""

RItIIMd tit Com Eq

HI

Hi AlDIY"lIlslDNIlProl

r
7.75

'-'5

....
HI

.lll

10.00

"''''
15..
1.15

,..
Iil

""""
...""'"
7.

120"
.1a
:rt5

...

.""
.'"
.'"
H'

TriiK Ccmpllnllls,
tnc. h.nchBes My's ,ast..food
rvstauranta {3,278 iI opet3tion lit 12131IOOJ.Amy's, whi::tr spegalIleS i1 slow-roasled
ITJIIII unchtfi::hes, mllli-brands wih T.J. annamona products, prmarily IlDIJIIl1IlI QlIIIrTlOn rtlb .nd con.-.,
Ind Pasa ConnadiYl', pnxluds, mainly paltll dilhe:l. In 1997, 8.
355 campany-owned Mly'_ unh ...
saki to hnctlisee. Acq'd

T.J. Clnamons, !W6. CHested .speciI1ty dyes, 12197 & lexliIes,


4'96. SoAj SnllPl* b6v&age unft, 1GOO. Has abouI 100 ~,.
ees, 3,832 cIi!Iss A common shill1!td:lln. 0fIian & dillcDs con-IrnI 45% rl carrmon. (9111 Prnry). Chllnian
& CEO: Nelson P8k.
P,u: PviJr W. May. Inc.: DE. AdG'.: 280 Part An., New York, NY
10017. Tel: 212-451-3000. Internet WWW.Nrc.CDn.

Triarc remains a company in limbo because of Its tnablllty to find a suitable


~lace to invest the proceeds from Its sale of
napple to Cadbury Schwe~,
completed
late last year. As a result
the deal, and
a subsequent debt offering secured by
Arby's
royalty
payments and rees, TRY
has approximately 5630 mlllion in cash
and shon-term Investments (5319 mUllon
in total debt). By comparison. revenues
from Arby's. the company's sole remaining
operating unit, were Just sUght1y under
$22.5
million In the third quarter
and
about $67.5 million for the first nine
months. The company's addItional revenues are generated from equity uansact10ns and interest income.
Low interest
rates ...... hurting Triarc's short-tena
results, as the amount
of interest income the company derives
from Its sizable cash postt1on dwtnd.les. To
make mallers worse, the $290 mlllton debt
issue. completed in November of 2000,
was of the fixed variety, meaning that the
company is not benefltlng from the current
attractive rates. However, the slower economy may help the company in the tong
nm, If management Is able to acqlIl.re a

~romlsing company at a discounted price.


hareholders
have
~proved
an
an:Jendment to increase
e number or
shares of capital stock the company is
authorized
to issue. (Subscribers should
note that officers and. dJrectors own about
45% of TRYs
stock). Bes.ldes Increasing
or class
the number
A and preferred
shares available Cor issue, the proposal
would also create new class B shares
(while canceling the old ones). Under the
tenns of the provisIon. the board of dtrectors (at Its own discretion) will be
responsible Cor setting the powers, prefer~
ences, and rights of the new Issue. TIle acallow the company
tlons taken should
more flexibility
when either
raising addttionaJ capital or making an acquisltlon.
However, they could also decrease the
value of the company's A share .
The stock's TImeliness rank remains
suspended
as a result of the Snapple
beverage sale. Despite the company's enviable flnandal plsttlml, we feel that investors would be best sen.red waiting to see
how the company deploys Its sizable cash
position. before making any conunitrnents.
Jeremy S. Marks
December U. 2001

BUSINESS:

12f.l1; egs." d47. 2Q


DOc. """ ....(CI Ind.
" "";I""-.,_n'
.......
""'.
Di:Jted
NexIUI,I1.68.
egs.. rpt. mil-fetnary.
in- (EJ In mlDllS.
'96. Exd. nome. ens: '92, d60; '93, 1M2.; Iang. In "00, $282..7 mill, $11.881sh. ~ Sot! (F) Far 511193-12131193, sales: $703.5
'94, d26j; '96, d18j; "97, d56; '98, d2; '99, Snappl& betr8rage un" 10100. Fbi
cllita eps: d$1.62 tom ops.
CI 2lIIl, v..e lile ~
AI ~~
......
F.c:lLIIIIMII!IiIl
is ~
fn:Il!l -.rte5 ~
tD be 1'IIiItie .... a parIIi*G .......
~
aJ

m[~lSWJTIl
fIIl..,- be RptIdtard. ~..,

\ "

I'"

"

",

,,'

'"

"

....

None

III

'.

,....

Ulbility

/I

....

'.'

l1li_ 9803 9318 10106 t ... ~d


5.0On Apnl23 1993, Nelson Pelt2 and Pete' 1991 1992 993" 9_
.. '4.15
W. May (IhrOugh DWG Acqui'~lon Group) 4925 50.03
.. 1.82
acqui~
VICIOf Posner" majoritY ,ha ..
tn
d.01
.. d....
d19 d1.73
ownership 01 Trialc ~ncorpora"'d in '994).
..
..
..
..
In July 1996, Merrill lynch and DU led a
.. 2.51
6.3-mill~n-,hare public oflering at Tria",',
.!l6
1.12
.. d''''
d1.67
National PlOpano sUb'~iary, generating
.15
$117.4 million. la1e in 1998, Peltz and May
..
2J."
..
.. .- ..
made a ~gcing private" proposal to pur..
..
..
..
chase the remailing Triart shares ootstand
..
..
..
..
ing, bul withdlllW the offer in March 1999.
.. IIl6Z.5
1275.1 10592
CAPITAl. STRUCTURE u of 11t1JQ,101
Total Debt $319.0 mil. Due In 5 Yrs 510.0 mil.
.. 121'10
1U.' 11.5%
LT Interest $22.8 mil.
LT Dl:bt $295.2 mil.
.. 515
52.0
(.. II"c.p'.
-. dZ.1
cf7.5 "".6
UuIlS, UncapitdzMI Annllill rentals S 13.1 n'iI.

V.8
11.5

80

..

Pension

.'''.4
10.0

18.8
9.'

P VI

RRml

Inside'

::

Nil

24.451~mNMF(=:=)~J%NMFI~

33.0
14.0

ft.XIies I~Dion

~ ata

P.OJEC11ON~.

PrIce

25
11

.. __ Relilft Pm SlJengDI

.1~ 0.00......

ZO_

C9iT
PRICE

15.~
2.8

e-:

"",","

SAFID
TECHNICAL
I:ETA

High:

SIll! OflMf!fRIlO.1lSOR~SHIl[",.~ilsri:lyb"
III....
II'" prieI. ___
.....
....

.......

gII8IIilg. ~."

-._~

...........

......

JIll**-. ~.

_.

~~
miL;

:10UIfl.
pMI
~

StDcl'.
rk:II Stl.blily
Prtc:8 Growth h~
Earnl .. P.-ct:.blIlJ

'..

85
<IS
5
:.,:

UNITED INDUSTRIAL

3
"110'"
3 ... J.J.,
3 _~",,101

lIIE1Jt1[SS

SAfET'l
TfCHHICAl

High:
Low:

......,

11.3
7.13

11.5

e.

:::.

..

..,

..

12
4017

Perc:ant

27 .h.....

Z?
9

d.12

1.

'9"

13-'0

13.33

11.7
1.03
1.7%

d.69

.70
1.00

..

.31\

.~

1.40

8.01

13.19
14.1

13.'"

1J.O

11.'
.91

96
4."

1.89
1.11
.64
.51
1.96

1.99
1.19
.64
1.04

1.7D
1.07
.64

, ..

t--

.'

"

......:.. ..

4.5'

",
"

."

,,",

"

"

. .. .

..

",

1.55
.75
.64
.41
817
1'-'4

11.'

11.1

!9
4.9'4

.87
1.3ft

1.63
.94
.64
.40
8.40
lLO

102
.65
6.1'

158.0

34.5'

Annual f9lltals $3.8 mil.

None

..

c.:'~

Receivables
~nIory
(Avg~
Cunni. ADIts

S=Pa)'able

13'

48.4
421
8.3
110.0

11.4
61.3

79.2
12.7

<49.0

164.8
11.2
78.5

68.8

95J

9.8

4~\
11.9
7.4
103.0
10.9'111

111\
3.6,

MARKET CAP: $200 millon (Small Cap)


CURRENT POSITION

7.4

Tillrv-1 Pric_ Ranu2005 2006


20'"
40

19.9
11.0

8.1

.'.

..

"~,,., --

.'
....

."

,
,,
4
,

...... ,

1 ..

68\
1130101

.7
68.2
96.1
11.8

174.i
29.'

117
.51
.64
.46
8.19
1<",
192
1.16
6.4'

151.3
7.1'4
91
6.4
36~\
1~\
44~
15.9
101.6
5.6"
6.3%

NMF
113\

.83

12
.'l5

.43

.96
11.",
31.6
1.81

,."
253.0
3.01.

7.4
1.7

..

1.11
.4J
11
.34
117

'w
lL8

!4
3.8\
109.7
7.3\
8J

"

381\
1.,\
1.11
63.4
60.'
1.5.0
10.0
8SA
3.31
5.7'4
5.9'4
32\
NMF 3.0'4
49\
Nil'

"..

.76
.07
.16
.47
7.06

121
~1
20
.52
7.40

1L11

1L17
11.0

NM>
NMF

.69
3.51

4.4'

1Z7.4
5.4'

.,

8J

..

66.41

\
53.6
13J
862
1.8'"
1.0'4
NMF

NMF

.69
.19
.7
8.'l3
1m
11.6
.73
3.3\

110.8 1351
9.0'4 10.1%
9.6
3.3
6.4
8.'
39.8\ 46~\
1.9\
3.6'
44.7
77.9
4~
90.1 102.0
7J\
'1\

--

7.1%

4.4"

31'4

... r-

'" lOT. RET\IIN


nos
.. tVI1
_

""'"
633

12.5
30.4
TO.1

5130
2491

16.68
1.<3
.81

17.65
1.39
.75

.4ll
1.15
8.93

.4ll

1'-'5

1.01
9.03
1

,.

9.24

13.1

13.1

15.6

.71
3.6\

.75

1.04

1043
U\
7.8
10.3
10.8\
5.1'

56.9

..

109.4
9.5%

4.1ft

4.1ft

211.0
10.31
7.7

156.'

9.4
33.5\
43\
512

..

.n

9~\

111.1
8.5%
8.4%

4.9'

4.0"

'1\

48\

8.3'"

1D.61
1.38
.61
.40

BUStlES5: Unl&cllndustial Corp. designs and manLrfacUes mlilaIy IJ'akliJg 1100 UnuWDn s~,
.uIDmCic fast equip. for 8JIc.
tJonic dBfense S)'Silms, mecI18nical suppI:ri sys1I1f1'1S, Ind the
Pioneer urwnanned aBriIl vehitlll (78% d '00 sales). MilkBs combustion 9ll~. far Wlduslial and muni:iplll marIl8ts (14%) ... anufactLnl and Ill ....
ialllil: ')'SBIII (810). Sotl Neo Products

51\

3.1\
9.4
7.8
321\
3.01

68.9

..

11-4.9

U,

6.8\
1.5\
64\

2U5
US

...... '"

.15
.40
.55
US
1110

2<"
1.75 '"Caw. Row" .-111
1.10 Ening. p- Ih A
. 2 DiY'ds Dld'd ,..11111
.10 CIp' SpontIIn, ....
'UO Baok Vllul ~ III
to
s
Avg"".'P",R'"

......

RUtm PIERdo

...

---

53lI

310 S111S11ItIiI}
10%
O__
lh~)
10
'10 Not""'1\ I1niIl
nO% Inconll Tu R.'.IX Not""' .......

'10
HI
130
11.5"
11.5"
7.0%

"'"

w_,
Lao,-T"",

f-

2'"

us
1.10

-',

.IS
1115

CIp'I

'10

"00

AyUAnn' Ih'd YtIkI

7.0%
1.5
''0
31.0%
34l1O
710
N'
'20
'.5%
15%
<0%

, ,

....=,~u-

f-

lie. 114-46

0VALUELllEPUB

1920
U7

"
20
"

- --

12
10

,.

8.4
11~

,,

'.1

lID

11.6

1 rr.
3 yr.
S'lf

9.3'"

Conwnon stocll 12,859,&68 sits.


as rA11mt1

12.5

4.'~

TobIl D.bI None

Plnslon liability
PM Stocl None

14.0

CAPITAL STRUCTURE IS of II'JCW1

tus., Uncapitalized

'.9

4.8

19851986198719881989 19901991199219931994199519_
18.68 18.14
10.73 11.06 10.50 10.54 11.24
2025
20.46 22.56 14.06 11.58
1.91
1.44
.49
1.40
816

11.4

3D

-.... .... ........ .. .~,

4.'

e.

7.'
4.4

lQ.!1I"'CI'5h''''p5ll
PrD! SftngiII

Insider Decisions
FIII".,1JAIO
o 10 0 00 0 00
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
o 0 0 000 000
Institutional Decisions

PHAro.

4.1

10.6

RelI&"te

,1'1..1

Ann'ITGtII
ReiunI

30
19 i::'5~t
+Z5% 21"
,%

oc.'"_~s,~
.,.

2004-06 PROJECI~NS
GMt

11.~
7.3

.
RElATIVE 0 88 DIV'D 2.7%
15451:RAm 17OC"io,~.l)
IrdI.,: 14.1

LEGENDS

BETA .10 I1m.Martel)

Price

I='

NYSEUN:

Ilnlllj

0sllI 1.... 1

"',.-eo.... ,.....

Rnm 0111Cl111Ctp,
Rmm '" "". Eouil,
RIWned III Com Eq
141DiY'ds ill IMl PnlI

"IX
0
'0.511
1O
1.1.5
34.0%
1IX

"'"

HI
175
'2.5~
f15"

10%

""

(plastia di.) 9197; Symron SysWns, 10m. '00 depr. raID: 1.5%.
Has aboIJl 1,700 empJs., 2,200 ~
Dr"JC8rIand dndtn:
conWI 9.0% d conwnOll; SfofIl P8ltnln
II, 10.5%: B&mII1l Feil,
9.7%: Kennecty Capilal Mgmt.., 8.5% (oW' Pmxy). Pres. and CEO:
Rhard R ErtenetI". Inc.: DE. Address: 570 LU:ngton Aft., NY,
NY 10022. Tel,: 212-752-8181. 1nBnet: www.unnedindustriBLam.

13.0
102.-4

United Industrial's
for the quarter. On a positive note. this
Defense segment
represents a significant pickup over the
continues
to .how strong
growth
Put Est'd .... 10 trends. Third-quarter
ANNUAL RATES Pat
profits from the 55.4 mlllion loss last year. as well as a
n...
11Tn.
division were up 58%, to $5.7 mllUon, as modest sequendal Improvement. Although
Solos
7.5"
-0.5"
sales rose 23%. to S58.7 mllllon. Results the company continues Its efforts to im''Cash Flaw"
8.5"
-3.5%
14.0"
largely reflected growth in the company's prove returns from the business, it may
25.""
~~
2.5"
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)business.
yet be divested at some point.
6....
Book Value
We've lowered our earnings estbnates
AM
(Its defense-rontract
subsidiary)
QUARlBI1.1 SAlfS II sill
FUll recently received an addltlonal $6.6 milfor 2001 and 2002. Although we believe
C'"
end.,
Mar.31 Jlln:.30 S.p,3I Del;.31
Ves' Uon in funding under a SlOGmllllon Tacti- the defense business W:l11remain on the
I.
57.2
101.3 cal UAV program for the u.s. Army. AAI upswing and that United will gradually
47.2
.9.9
60.0
63.8
.7.1
52.1
211.0 was also recently awarded a contract from work out the excess costs In the Trans54.0
65.8
79.7
61.0
".9
256.' the
U.S. Navy
for Generic
Navy portatlon segment, progress in the lauer
,7.4 295
2001
57.0
19.7
69.9
valued at up to $29 appears to be coming along at a more mod,to 3fO Stimulator/Simulators
2002
810
71D
10.0
million. Elsewhere, B new S26 million con- erate pace than we odglnally antldpated.
EARJilNGS PER SlIME
C.~
Full
tract on the Joint Service Electronic Com- As such, we have trlnuned $0.10 from our
Ju .3I 5... 30 OK.31 v- bal Syslems Tesler (JSECST) mIsed lotal
share-net estimates .
.Z7
.81 bookings on the program to Just over 554 These
.18
.18
.19
shares
have had a good nln
11119
.1lI
.19
.11
.17
.75 million. and the company stands to benefit
over lhe past 12 months. And despite
JII
.18
.10
.17
.61 from likely additional order.>from the U.S. some backpedaling, the stock remalns up
2001
.15
.75
.14
.JD
.'6
Air Force over the next few years.
about 10% since our September r~,
.35
2002
.29
f.fD
.22
.2'
The company's
li-ansportation
busireflecting the general rise In d nse
QUARTBlLIDNIlBllS PlIO'
CaIFull
ness remains in the red.. Sales for the stocks over the period. Although UIC
_".31 J.. .3I SOD.3O Dtc.31 Vu,
segment rose 67%. to S14.6 mUllon in the stands to benefit from a probable step-up
1.7
.29
.07
.01
.UT
.DB
period, reflecting ramped-up produet:lon on in military spending. the current quotatJon
.10
.10
.4ll
.10
.10
various programs. Excess overhead costs, leaves its long-tenn appreciation potential
11119 .'0
.40
.10
.10
.10
hawever. continue to drag down performaround the v.:Uue Line median.
.40
200D
.10
.10
.10
.10
ance. with a loss of S1.8 million reported
Mario Ferro
December 28, 2001
.4ll
.10
10
.10
.10
200'
(AJ Pm.y .-nings ~h
1996,Ilen.
'01,4#. Next egs. I1Ipart due mi1-Febnary.
ar nMI" Id day olFeb., M.y, Aug., Nov.
Campa",'.
FitIlnclill strenllb
B
Cul11tnt

l...iIIb.

.......
of_"~1 ..1.,,,
..1."" .~"
..1.""~" ..0"
,.""

-,.
'189

....., _ar.3'

,.

."""

dlu*ild. Exct. disc. lIpS.:


gaiJs (1lJues): '89, (~);

,74#; norwectnI'I9
(8) Nm;t diw'. mtg . .-ound mid-February. NexI:
(C) In milions.
'!la, 21,: '91, ~17";
ell dale IIiIte Fetwary. Div'. pI,ment dNI:
on
'93,($110); '91,51;; '98,Z1;; '99,(1.5;; 0'
CI 21JJ1, VIUe lOr
. lIE. III'
~.
rllt!llll IMlDIII ~ cU*Rd IIanr, '5OIKrft ~
ID be ,...
.... ~ f"IIli*'d ~
.-rWIIies III
U1d.
Tll( PUlIUSHERIS~SIJlT:mN4~ERRORSOROMsgOHSHRUC.
nBpd*:IIirII5sR1yb~5CJJ111,_
lQia"'irumIIll5e'1DpIfl
III.. ..,.
npadPd. -as. 'IIIIftd 1lI....-11l"
.........
DIItf knI. DItI5eII b ~
DI
. lIlY pi"MlIllf.-...nit ~
SII'Ii:r.

-=

StDck's Prim Sbbilty


Price Grvwth ~""1C8

7U
0(5

I',

:f

I:

11-.

VALMONT INOS. NDQVALM

SAFIJY
TECHIIICAl
IETA S

High:
low:

3 ....."....
3 ... ,a",0
3 ..... 11111"

lIIEUIlESS

... - ~~
2.fDr-1

p~

~!"-

44

4.

22

29

11.4

5.2

'.5

12.1

25.0

23.'
18.5

.. ~ 1111 Iii
..
"'f1'V'

II.J

..

!Lilli

. ..

"

.. ..

149.8
116.1
15.6

1-40.4
130.7
18.8
313.1

.2.9
220.0

46.8
23.2
5'.5
121.5

63.0

287.2
53.6

47.0
57.5
167.5

24.4
59.4
137.6

Put

"'0-

... .. .

"

.....

!
Is.o2
J6
.53
.15
.71
.."

23]7

1..
!fI
1.71

438.
7.81

103
1~'

35."
L8%
82.3
36.'
113.4
9.%
10.6%
8.1"
26%

(B) ~

BUSINESS: Vamont Industies, Inc. operalBs in three industy segmenl!l. Infnslrud.lJI1! (59" d 2000 lam, 56% d operabrlg ilalff8): ITIilIkes ..
and a1oo1nLlll poles b snet ~hts, ntrc sig1II1s, and elech:;ll lral'l!llnissixl sm::tIns. In'JiDon (39%, 43%):
wortr. Ieadi1g prodllC8f d iTigillixl equ~enL 0ltB" (2%, 1%).
Acq'd PiRcd, 30'01; lul1gbi Stanclald, 1101; Cascade Earth

.2001, Vlillel..ile
~~I"I5el'ftd.
TllE PlMJSt1l: IS IJ1 HE
d .., 1Ie..,...1NId.
...

OR
III --....

N(i (

....

1996 ..,

lhereaftl!l".
es n~
98ft (losses);
'81,11;; '91, (~); '93, (32); '96, (36). Next
eamngs repm due artlUnd nid-January.
FIo..IIIIIW:liII is CII:UinI:IlIIanI_
RRORi OR OMIS!iI!ONS HEREIil. TI'i5 ~
priIId. Raair. II' ~
tn. II' IIAIll b

II Ill)'

."

..

...

'"

32

24

-.

20

1.
12
10

,,-- t-.

...
.....

" TOT. RET1JIaI Ml1

..

,5".".".

SO.

,.7
t.

, '" '" .....

2006

."4

-10.8

2ll.'
".1

19.8

-12.1

VAllIE UNf PUB.IIC. 114-06


2002
31.55 SaIIIpwlh A
"-to
~5O "CuI> Roo" por 011
15.
Ul EanqI~"'AIII
1.65
.20 Dtv'dl Dlcl'd per III C
.n
I.JD Cap" SpoecIin6 por 011
1.15
180 Boat. VII. pII' It!
12.15
24.50 0I'Mll0ll Shs OJtsrgLa
24.50
14.0
'6 All., PIE ROo
.95
;; Itllltlft PIE Itdo
A~ Ann'l DiY'dYilkl
1.2lI
195 SIIIn(W)A
If 00
11.2" 0"";"';_
I~""
3U D...,al1ion (1001)
37.0
31.0 N"""'''~I
50.0
37.0% InCCllt Tu RdI
:11.""
~511 N.. ""''' ....
~511
110 W_6
270
Cop' 110011
180
175
. $III
lID $hr.
335
10.511
'.511 R.... onT .... E~
13.DlI Rn.m on Shr. E
15.0%
R...., to Cora Eq
'~511
21% AI DiY'di tD N.t PnlI
I'"

-::...--

'00'

end on ,........

,"

.'

,!

I.-

..

..

1995 1996
2000
1994
1997
1999
2001
20.43 20.08
23.56 22.52 24.53
26.30 3616
3550
1.15
137
1>2
2.01
2.60
~<5
U6
1.65
.so 1.12 1.33 1.02 1.06 118 1.1D
.69
.15
.15
15
.26
.26
.20
.16
.22
1.00
118
1.42
110
1.62
1.69"
I.JD
1.30
!I.B7
1.12
813
5.2
6.41
7.49
7.30
UO
--zlJI!l" """"2m" ~
2n4 """2<.1'[ 23.35 23.32 2'.50
11.7 11:9
15.6
11.9
14.7
14.3
14.'
.n .60 .so .so .93 .82 .67
1.91U%
1.41
1.7%
U%
1.2%
1.1%
846.1
810
471.7
544.6 "'.5
622.5 606.3 614.2
7.9% 10.1l'J. 10.4% 12.6% 11.1% 11.'" 11.5% 11.0%
19.8
303
1<4
14.8
16.4
21.
:UO
10.'
71.0
18.1
311
37. 21.6
2'.8
26.'
30.'
31.5% 363% 37.01
36.0% 36.3% 36.5%
35.3'
35.6'
% 4.8'
3.6'7i
6.0%
3.1%
4.6'
3.'%
4.3"
69.5
81.0
01.5
86.5 145.6
116
91.'
28.7
80.5
104.3 202.0
115
21.9
20.7
35'
127. 159.3
1151 207.1
115.9
110.5
161.6
215
11.1%
142%
11.1%
9.4%
16.8"10.7%
L51I
16.4'
15.8%
1~6% 15.5% 17.8% 18.1% 15.1%
15.5%
1~51I
9.91 13.3~ I' 15. " 15.3" 12.01 11.71 12.7% 151l
151
15% 18%
20%
22%
2.%
MI
2'%

.......

quartfft.

2005

. ... ..

Esfd ... 1G

20 ..

.,,'I

t~'" ,.

30
34

106.8
85.4

,
""'IT'"

To

,,'"

PeRnt '.0

....,

IA) """'""

Tarv-t Price R.n~

20.7
12.1

"

.. ....... ..

p ...

21.7
13.9

50

Valmont
Industries
Infrastructure
division keeps chugging along. Thirdtllrs.
quaner sales from this segment rose over
.......
~I
...
S.1os
-2.0%
8.0%
7.5"
15%, to 5152 milllon. compared to the
''Cash FIow"
13.5%
6.5%
8.5"
Eami'lgs
4,0%
10.0,,"
9.5"
~ago
period. All product Jines in the
Oivi:Iends
11.5%
3.5"
'.0%
tructure unit are doing well. In the
Book V"",,
7.0%
10.5"
5.5%
United States, demand for pole rroducts
QUARTERLYSAW (I.alA
eelhas lncreased, both as a result 0 gOVenlar,Per JUft,Ptr $en.Per Dee.Pe
Veer
ment spending related to the highway act
I. 160.6 154.3 140.1 151.3 606.3 and a higher level of sales of commerdal
1199 154.4 1628 138.8 158.2 614.2 lighting products used In retail and busl846.1 ness parking lots. Demand for sports llght196.8 224.9 201.7 222.7
2001
204.3 232.9 209.3 221' 870
also has risen, mainly from educa19. ing
2002 210
245
210
DO
tiona! institutions. Additionally. electric
EARIillIGS PERSIIAREM
FuJI
eelcompanies continue to step up spending
DeeP.
Y.... for utllIty poles to meet capac.lty and dls... dar Ibr.Per Juft.Per Sep.Ptr
1118
1.02 trlbution
.34
.18
.24
.26
needs. Too. Valmont should
.23
1.08 benefit from Pres1dent Bush's proposed en.2Jl
.13
.34
1.2Jl
.32
.38
.29
.29
ergy pollcy, which feanrres recommenda1.10
2001
.20
.34
.2Jl
.2'
tions to remove bottlenecks in the nation's
1.25
2002
.25
.3.
.30
.JZ
energy tnfrastru.eture
caused by overuse.
IlUARlERLTDNIlElllS PAIl e
CeJFuU And because backlogs for the Infrastn.lcY.,
... dar lIu.31 Jun.30 siD.3D Dec.]1
ture division are at high levels. we believe
11 this segment should continue to pull Val
.115
.DS
.056
.1156
15 mont through the current economic storm.
.056
.065
.065
.065
16
1199 .065
.065
.065
.065
Demand for wireless communications
.26
.065
.065
.065
.065
poles bas subsided. reIlecting reduced
2001
.065
.065
.065
.065
spending from tower companies and carrlANNUAl RATES

lB.3
11.3

12.3

iltl

.... ....

ReOBtvilbles
Inventory (FIFO)
Othe'
Curren!. ASS8IS
Accts Payable
Debt Due
Othe'
Curmnl Liab.

20.9

'.1

.,

13.0

5mlfIl

.,,0
1990
1989
1991
1985
1986
1987
1988
1992
38.70
18.91
1510
15.07 21.34 30.22 35.09
16.SS
1.15
1.30
.56
16
.41
1.11
1.11
.63
.67
.89
.09
.10
.66
16
'.04
.13
.11
.13
JI8
.08
.08
.13
.08
.87
.82
.50
.13
31
. 6
.35
.35
4.041
>1. 2.13
3.61
3.01
'.65 '.<5 4.81
51 ~
.. m 9.
"83 127 -NNF
6.3
1~8
.. 1.42
.91
.64
NMF
.52
.78
M
3.4%
1.4%- 1.5% 1.8% U~
33%
3.DlI
1.9%
CAPrTAL STRUCTURE I' of tl2IJD1
429.7
424.1
Total Debt sm.s mil. Due In 5 Yrs $200.0 mil.
4.6"
1.8"
LT DRill $202.1 mill.
LT Interat S15.0mil.
10.8
1~1
~o 131
(l T i1t8lUSf sarned: 4.7x: kJtal merest covenge:
34.8%
3.!b:)
(48" of C8p'1) 20.'"
.%
3."
Peftllon Llability None
65.6
63.8
pfd Stocll None
70.4
60.'
101.1
111.3
(52% of Cap'Q
Common Stock 24,575,000 shs.
3.1"6.3%
IlARKET CAP: $400 milDon (Small Cap)
~O% 11.6%
",.."
NIIF
91.
CURRENT POSmoH
NMF
22%
5.1
14.9
23.2

Clor~

p 5tI

-'.

,,,

""'"

10.3

~~~~s,ece~

~t Return

...,.". ."..

9.4

ro106
iii .,:

,,1a9

35 (+115% 23"

20
(+25%
7%
Insider Decisions
DJF.".JJA
000
0 Q 0 0 0 0
000110000
000000000
InstituUorwl Decisions

....:'::'
....

4.'

1625]
14.~)~J%O.82 ~ 1.6%

RAm 141
C
15.0

Nor' !pi 9/81


Nor.' ~

Ann'I Tabil

i':

9.'

4.'

le_'Ih n.-

7.5

(UII_ Mart:!l)

GaIn

12.5

LEGENDS

2004-41 PROJEC11ONS
Prlce

I~CENT
PRICE

If'-ror;:;;t

dO ..............

11"

-*'lil9

..

' '.$X

Sdenc:es, 11198. Has about 5,400 impS. and apprtlll. 5,500 ...
hoIdtn. Robwt B. Daugherty owns 30.5% at tDmJOn; oIfil3S end
dncus
(ad. Daugl'8ty),
7.3% rI mrnmon.; J.P. Morgan ChuB,
6.1% (4101 prwy). Chalman,
President & CEO: Mouens BiI)'. In
aJIflOfiI19d: D~.
Address: One V.mont PIIIza, Omaha, HE
68154. TelBphone: 402-963-1lXX1.lntl!ll18t. WWW.Vllmont.com.

ers. These companies are working off their


inventories. However. sales of components
that attach antennas. wires, and hardware
to poles, towers, and (lX)ftopsare strong.
TIle Irrigation
business continues
to
be hampered
by the soft ecunomy.
These sales fell during the quarter. due to
low commodity prices and uncerta1nty over
fann policy In North AmerIca. In response,
VALM reduced its cost structure to better
match the size of the business. However,
the outlOOk ror the agricultural
sector
remains poor for the rest of the year.
VaJmont's debt to total capital ratio is
under 50%. The company has used excess
cash flow to pay down its debt, which rose
from capacity expansions and acquisitions
made earlier In the year. And with capital
spending returning to maintenance levels,
we believe Valmont will continue to utilize
cash now to "'pay Its debt, which will
reduce the company's Interest payments.
These shares
offer slightly belowaverage
capital-appreciation
potentlal for the pull to ZOO4-Z006.despite
our projections for a decent earnings
recovery to that time period.
Justin T: Sebastiana
November 2. 2001
P....

Dee. 14th.

OM ex apprD1 Dee. 28th. Appmx. dividend


d8tBs: 15th of Jan., Apr., Jut, Oct.
ID In mili:x1s. adjusted lor stx:k split
...
lobe .......
a pn:triIIed ..... ...-a
Uld.
is ~
Iar ~I_,
or
.. M1d1l, irumIl_. D pari

.....

ta;'~::::--:.rml

....., III *GCI'ir: JIIIIIbliaI'.

aI:1'

!1Mb. ~

Camp ........
_
........
S1Dck's Prica ~
Price Growth ~
Earnings Predictability
I

, '.

55
60
65
:

II:

I I ,

V1AD CORP
NYSE-VV1
4_ .._

TllEUN[SS

3 Nml11/9ll
3 .... ,.,..,

SAFETY
TECHNICAL
BED

JD

PHATIO. 0 96 1IIV'D
YlD 2.1%
19.261~m16.5(=-~:~~)RElAllVE

T~ECENT
PRICE

('1..110.IQrtd)

......"

50

.......,

Gain

..,

30

Pfd DlY'd $1.1 mil.


(2% of Cap'Q
ComlllQn Sid
88,.358,36'7 shs.
(64% of CaP')
IURKET CAP': $1.7 blllQn (liid cap)
CURRENT posrnON
1...
&I3G.OI

=~abl.

43.'

'06.0

105.8

13.1

83.3

87.8
1233.7
1531.4
73.4

02.S

12n.1
1551.0
81.1

3792.0
3921.2

4788.1

.5613.1

4939.0

~755.0

922.2

69"

46.1

Othe<'

103.9

".8

676.5

".5

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..

..

..

..
..

.,

..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

111'
62.1
Bl1
32.6'

3.""..

3~

-210
-212
440

-108
2113
551

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 C VALUE LtIE PUll. lie.
20.96
1.<6
.16

..

.63
5.82
94.13

23.59
1.59
.85

.'"

..
..
..

.86
4.50
9>.95
11.8
1.11
.5%

1976.7
111%
68.9
68.5

12631
i0.n,
74.4
79.0

29.3,

3U%
3.5"

3.5%

d1329
811.1 518.8
554.8 438.8
11.0'6'%
12.41 18.01
.. 12..1%
8.1"
..
.. 56%

..
..
..
..

.~
I~

d1121

24.36
1.16

1.03
.32
1.'"
5.33
99.22
11.3
1.00
1.8'4

2S.58
2.10
1.26

'6.18
1.96
1.26
.3'
.86
1.52
9414
12.9
1.31
12%

.:r.>
.1B
B.50
99.40
10.0
1.04
1.3%

2411~ 2542.'
11.11 11.9"
85.9
18.5
12.u
91A
29.6" 181%
4.""
4.0'
d1710 d2553
!n.B
531.3
53>.8 652.5
122%
13.4'
18.3K 19.1%
12.8%

1.4.4"

31%

25%

BUSINESS: VGId Corp has two prinwy business units. Corrverdi:Jn


arK! Event Semce" whi;::h genenl8d 54% d conswda-.d sales
thrDugh the lint nine months d 2001. PlD'tides design and maMgemen!. fel" conventi:lns ilnd hdeshows. PayrT'llill'ltSllIVices (-42% of
.ala) proviles IIIOOlt)' crdl!l'S, DfII:ialt;heI:O, h.nsfers, and cKher
c:ash-aa:as 1&Vic:es. Also JI'OVides I1!a9aion services (4%).

15811
14.6%
63.0
1224
lll~X
7.71
d2999
3426
715.3
12.8%
11.1"
12.5%

19.39
2.31
1>1
.36
.51
8.51
89.06
lB.l
11
1.4"
1726.8
14.71
68.6
143.6
16.0'10
8.3%
d3388
3m

fUS
1.95
1.20

.n
.55
.30

84..

11."

...-

"'5
,toX

"'"
<:1%

InconIe TI:I RD
1.'" Nil
.1OgIn
Cop" (""ill
dJ44Il
:J15
80S Shr.
Sra1U
11.0% Rfttm 011 T~ C~'
......
E.....
t1tfl R_
11.0% RNined ID Con Eq
AI DiY'dsID ... Prof

dJ405
315

.3D

.."'

115"

I.'"

13%

'IX

84'
In

25.'"

150

140
.N

1.10
13.70
11..

'U
1.10

....... HIERdo
R*tiY1 PIE Ratio
""8 AIIn' DiY'd Yllld
RMr\uel ($nIII)

1110
'15X
71.0
1'5

1.ll.5%

28X

2lJO

CIIII
It!
1.S5 EanlnppII'lhA
.R DWd' o.d'dperlh
.t5 CIp' Spend por III
'D.%5 8...v.Iut por III
IClIIIIfIIOnShsOUWg
C
UO

.......::::
..., ...

769.8
13.6'

18.71

'1" R.... ut.1*1h


FkJw" per

1.1X

......,'.."
U5Il

I""".......

0_-1""1
Nt1Plv1It

IlnIIl

W_.""It

25.'"

''''

oI3Z51l
:J15

~=~"r--I

,,3D

13.",
11.5"

..'"

""

"K

Map su~
EJ:hibilgrouplGlbpw,
GES Exposition, & TriMIIer"s
EJrpess. At:qIIftod Game FiDanciaJ, 12197; UoneyGnwn, 719B. Sold
Dobbs, 7F.l9. HIs 7,300 amP's OhJdi:l.. awn 2.0% of n.; FUR
Cp., 8.3%; Fnlnklil Rascuces, 5.3% (3101 ~.
CImIn . Pnas.
& CEO: R H. Bohannon. Inc.: DE. Address: 1850 N. Central Aw .
Phoenill., R.
Phone: 602-207-4000. IntMnlIt: www.Nd.tmI.

ason.

Ues. management has adopted more strlnVJad's two core operating


segments
gent credit
requirements for Its moneyseem to be headed on divergent paths.
Put Est'd ... 00
ANNUAL RATES Put
The more--cycllcalConvention and Event order agents. which may restnlin results
n...
of .....
(po-"'I " Tn.
~ Services unit (which generated. about 54% for this product. But strength in other
-.5%
of consolidated sales in the nine months areas should be suffident to support profit
~
''Cash Flow"
9.011
-Eamilgs
ended September 30th) continues to suffer growth in the mid-teens for this division..
--.- 13.5% 10.0"
Divid-m
4.""
due to a raptd deterioration in demand . AU told. profit comparisons may re.. .~%
Book V.lue
10,5"
Customers. seeking to rein in nonessential main unfavorable for the next several
Full
eo. QUAR18lLY REYEMJE5IS.J
capital spending in the face of falling prof- quarters. In response to the challenges.
v_
.nder
Mlr.31 JUII.30 SeD.JO Dlc.J1
Its. are dIastlcally
trimming
their tradeVlad is accelerating the restructuring pro1198 6028
657.0 672.4 609.9 25421
show budgets. FalUnf attendance has led gram It began earlier this year. Planned
G
1!119 373.4 420.4 391.2 393.2 '581.2
to the cancellation 0 a rising nwnber of initiatives, including the closure and COIl408.2 416.5 429.0 413.1 1726.8 events. Moreover. those exhibitors that de- solidatlon of several fadlltIes and slg16111
459.5
315.1
444.6
390.1
210'
dde to go forward tend to refurbJsh older niBcant headcount reduetJons, should trim
2D02 40ll
430
4511 f74S
"5
displays rather than constIuet new ones.
annual costs by approximately $35 milllon.
EAlNtGS PER SHARE.to
Full
eo.
In contrast, prospects for the Payment Nonetheless., the stock's current price
.. ar.31 Jun.3I Sep.3D Dec.31
Semees
dIvision
(42%), though not fully
might represent
a decent entl'Y point
1.26 insulated from the prevailing eamomJc for patient
1198
.15
.35
.42
.34
investors. Tradeshow activ1M
.33
1.26 malaise, remain fairly blight. as it reaps
.150
.42
.36
lty levels will probably not Improve untll
.46
1.51
.28
.47
.36
the rewards of a growing agent base and the economy regains Its footing and corpo1.2Il
2DD1
.28
.41
.31
.20
1.55 solid demand for Its offidal checks, money rate profits return to a growth track.. We
2D02
.25
.45
.45
orders. wire transfers, and other cash ac- cWTently expect demand wllJ begin to pick
Full
eo. QUAR7BlLYONDENDS PMI"
cess services. The terrorist atroddes of up by mJd2002. Once it does. 'VJad's net
lar.31 Jun.30 SeD.30 Dec:.31
Seplember
II th temporarily
disrupted
profits should recover at a health~ce.
1l1!11
.08
.32 transaction volumes. leading to slower IIftlng Its shares.
.08
.08
.08
1be equity's
low
ell1898
.08
.32 thlrd-quarter
.08
.08
.08
growth. but actJvity has ness rank, however. suggests that there is
1M
.08
.34 since resumed at or near the levels of early little need to rush on board..
.08
.08
.09
2DOO
.09
.09
.09
.36
.09
that month. Given the economic uncertain
Lars L. Bainbridge
November 2, 2001
2DD1
.09
.09
.09
.09
~ ~
fIgS. tlnJugh '96. diuted.....
port due Ia1I Jill. (S) Next diY"d meet:ng abl
(AFO, Avg~ or mkt. C11nc1. piI)'II8l'11: BYice
CompMJ's
Fimllldil !tnnglh
B+
Ilornc:w. iIIlmsidisc. ops.: ~. S1.00; '95. NDV. 15. Goes fiLl: ab!.. Dee. 5. DjycIs pili:!.tIt. obigaklns m &'30J01: 5,-428.5 mil), monncI
.ck'a Price StlIIIblitJ
75
CurT8mUab.

..

""" .....

-....
-

......
....

...,

.....,

""

m>a<

'.0

....... -

~ TOt RETURIIID1

.. '

'

4.1

Leu .. , UnClpltaliztcl Annual rentals $30.5 mil

.. ......

.... ......

Toblll Debt $421.6 mi. D.. In 5 YB $375.0 mi.


IT Debt $359.' mi.
LT Interest $35.0 mi.
(TlJtIl inBest txJW!Dge: 7.8x)
(34% of Ctp'Q

128.7

24

12
10

.. ..-

PM Stock $23.5 milL

40
32
20
10

I,ll

CAPITAL STRUCTURE u of III38/Q1

CurT8m AsSBls

- -- - --

--

..

RecaiYabIes
~rDyl:

~"'II'"''''

Viad COrp, fonnerty known as The Dial 1991 1992 1993 1994
..
.. 19.'"
..
Corporation, changed i1s name following the
..
.. 1.33
..
August, 1996 divestiture cI i1s consume,
..
.. .Ell
..
products division (now knCMll as Dial Cor.,
..
..
..
poration, ""ding on the NYSE as 'D!. '). The
..
.. .le
..
company sold its airline catering segmem in
..
..
..
..
July cI 1999. This latest divestiture repre..
..
.
92.19
sents the eulminafun cI a decade-long met
.. ..
..
amOfJlhosis.ln the 1960s, Viad. then known
..
..
..
as The Greyhound Corp., began to sell
..
..
..
many 01 its businesses, including a majority
interest in the bus hne of the same name.
..
.. 'BIl6.6

Ca:'~

Target Price Range


2004 2005 2006

27.3
18.0

80

{~!BO~128"

"'

29.8
19.8

80

Anft1TGtd
Return

-. ..

33.9
24.0

16.6

14.6

2lNM-l16PROJECT1ONS
PriCil

30."

2Q.4

n,.~""_~,euuiln

30
+55%
'"''
Insider Declstona
DJF.".JJA
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
100201100
o 0 0 000 , 0 0
InsUlutional Decisions
11.1
JQ2.' P.n::ant
110 aham
92
~~_
81
t5
00332 58979
.9900

17.1
13.4

High:

Lo'"

LEGENDS
11!11 "'tl~
p 51
. . .. RetIM Prb ShrIgdl

.~

...,

d93: '96. d55: '97, d9; "98, 26; '!19. $2.40;

"00, 11: ~, Cl2. <1211;03, d5O. _

-...e

..

,/1"".-ees

IhlI1st of .Ian., Apr . July nd oct. (e) In ml.


IE)'-- of_

.... on- 10) 1'lobmo ..... 10

by resbided inYesbTents

o"""""""l.IG)"""'"

Cl 211)1,
liIe ~
~
mcmd. Faa.l IIIDriIll ~ IItm'ItIIIIIItIlIl
lI*wallO
Ill! ,...
... is prurwiIIed ......
TWEP\.BUSlt:RE5.NJTR[
ORAN'fE1U!QR$OR<MSSWNSHfREIII.1lil.p&Ii;UIIlil~b~_._""""_",,,iumalU5II.
tit
lit
1ftIIld.~.~in
etlG1IIi:._tn,lIl15tdb
. III
.
.
11__

.., ...-

g.s,650.3

miL: indo
Prtce Gnnrlh
of!lob"'~
.....-s af

....

:1.......
0""

senEtli

PlIrslstllllCl
".

.
:

II:

70
11-.

WENDY'S INT'LNYSE.WEN

TllEUIESS

SAFElY

Z .....

TECHNICAl..

H;gh'

La.tl'ed 7oY1l

Low:

Hi;tI
lDiW

7.~

3.9

14.1
U

11.0

5.9

i1P.E 17 O(Trolng: 11.1) !ElAINE 0 90,lorro


29 53IlRAOO
0.8%
MoM!: IU P.ERAOO 'jllD

17..4
1U

18.4
1M

22.8
23.0
14..41U

l'11 ..

1111

Insider Decision.
.....

1~

JJAa

:.::.

110
67J~

117
7~

30.5
~

..

- - --

..

,I

" I

"

gg~gg~g

ILl',

~:s~u:~~~D~~i~~
20
C..
tQllt1
Jar.'
..,

27.1
14~

~~nic*s~

PROJECT1ONS
AM,ToI:II

JF

25.2
31.7
18.1 1U

..".':ee

Rl&elIl2tJoVl

Prb
GaIn
RItIIm
60 (4;105%\ 20"
45
1+50%1 ""

=- g

27.9
19~

LEGENDS
10.0 I Cl21 f .... P 5b
Pro! S.S1glh

IIETA .7~ (1l1O. MaIt.et)

IRECEHT
IP~CE

97

7(>J~:

. ".

........-

IIIrll.I..~?"
'".

.'.".
_

~:=='~:::
Irllded

.".

~TOL~=
.....
-.

or--:---::

1 yr.

5.1

~~

68

4
_

12.S

:.i ~:;

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 995' 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
YAUElJIEPIIl.MC.
owe
11.81 11.94 11.02 11.04 11.09 10.44 1D.89 12.53 13.10 13.74 16.81 16.79 17.59 17.95 20.16 21.98 Z5.D5 lUG RlftllueI .. thA
,JUS
1..29 1.08
.60
.81
.83
,97
1.11
1.28
1.44
1.62
2.01
2.17
2.38
U5
2.51
2.84
135
~7tJ '"Cash Row- pIf III
5.45
.82
.49
.Dot
.30
25
.40
.52
.63
.76
.91
1.12
1.19 1.33
1.13
1.32
1.53 U'
1.10 EnklglplfM
115
.18
11
.24
.24
24
.2.
.24
.2.
1.
1.
2.
14
1.
1.
14
14
.M
.2' DiY'd.Ded'dpwlh
C.
,31
211
1.23
.80
.58
.40
.43
.11
121
1.16
1.39 2.09 2.12
2.54
2.22
2.41 2.11 ~15
125 ClIp'Splnclnllplflh
4.65 4.45
4.2!l 4.36 .45
4.61 4.91
5.35
5.96
6.10 1.88 9.35 10.23 9.84 10.31 11.06 1.100 15.50 BaokYlhillpll'lfI D
23.70
95.30
95.44
!IIi.Ill! !Iti.2ti
7.
1w.19 1
13.
15.
.!l6
1.1
1.18 15.00 11
0IIIl'II0fl
R
.11.00

"'f)

l~m_m=mm~Will~~~mmW~

1.28
1A%

1.89
1.5%

NMF

1.n

1.75

~6%

3.911

.211

1.03
'3%

CAPrrAlSTRUCTURE as ofll3Ml1
TotalOlfbl$252.5 mi. Out In :5 Yrs $12.0ma
LTDeblSZ48.5mil. lTlntenstS18.0miIJ..
(Inckrdlls $44.7 mil. caPItalized ~.~'"
afCap'g
leaD, UnapltallDdAnnual rentals SS4.7mil
PlfnslonUBI1ft)'None
pfd Stock None for Wendy'sln&nati:lna~Ine.
(Exd. S200 mil 5% pi!. stn. issJed byWendy's
FinancingI, I trust that 118 wholly.<JWllBdconsoL

1.11
V%

1060.4
13.8%
56.1
51.1
34.0%
. 91
431
239.6
4719
sUbsidiaryafWendy'1.
Elchtrustpref8mlds!lan!)
.
Is conv. to 1.89321XJ11'11't'klnshares.)
8.7"4
Convnon Stock. 11U60,OOOshs. (88% of Cap'Q
10.8%
IlARKET CAP:$3A bilion (Mid Clop)
5.91
CURRENT
POSmDN 1911
2000 1J3M11 45%

ea:'..::sb

210.8

169.7

187.5

~::
126.5
4..4

319.1
125.6
3.9
166.9

326.6
70.5
4.0

~~I~IFO)r~:g ~:~
Cumiln1 AsIBls
N:ca PlI)'8.bIe
Deb!. Due
Other

~:~
182.8

~Cu~";;;;nl=;:LJa::;"b",. ;;:---;;:c::-2":::::.2,""=2!l6",,.;:4:;;;-;257~.;;;3,

1.1B 1.13
20%
1.1%

__ ~_.~

1.11
15%

1238.5 1320.1 1391.9


14.1% 14.6\ 16.310
61.1 65.1
68.1
64.1 79.3
912
36.Q14 31.4% 35.010
5.2" 6.0'"
1.0\
33.9 35.4
114.0
233.1 200.6 144.9
528
681.5
.7 600.11
9.11% 11.1% 12.4%
122" 132% 14.3%
1.8% 9.2% 10.1%
361
3010
25%

1.03
12%

1.09

1.3%
1146.3
17.6%
80.6
134.6
31.%
7.111
25A
3311
818.8
12.3%
16.410
13.....
111"

1.1%

1.02
1.1%

1891.1 2031.3 1948.2


18.410 19.610 11.5%
89.0 95.6
95.4
155.9
180.5 148.4
38.8% 38.2% 38.6%
8.2'"
8.97; 7.6%
1291 169.0 64.3
241-8 2(9.8 246.0
056 8 11841 068
1.
1.1.
12.6% 13.2% 11.8%
14.B% 152% 13.9"
11.9% 12.6% 11.0"'
20%
18% 21"

BUS"~SS: Wendy's Jnll, IDC.liam58S & operat~ tb8 nation'..

Put

Esf'd.'00

.~~r..=~~=2:J;e

::

:~.4

iIcI. 597 inlemnonal sles; also 1,980 Tn tbtons units, which


S8fV8
coI'fee, donuls, bag. & sandwdles.
OuUBts I8fV8
prepEnd-b-mIs" burgers, chi:ken sandwiches,salilds, & !Iid8 dii-

2236.9
18.1'\

:f: ::

IA) FI!CII:Iyeti'" ends Sunday lI8IlIlSl:i:I De::.


(36);'9B,(2Of!); "lXI, (9). (C) Nexldiv"drr8et
31st. (B) BitEd 011diL shs. Next egs.~. due Ilg about Dee. 281ft; Goes eJ: about Feb. 5th.
UI1y Feb.; Exd. nDmlalt geinsllosses: '88,
Apprm. div'd pynt d8tBs: MiiKh 15th, May
(54): "87, 1; "89, 7j; '90, 1j; '95, (2-41);"97,
25th, Aug. 28th, No. 25th . Div'dnnest.

Iles. SCJkISisfln

R*tiY.PIf:Rdo
A'IIAn.'OWdYooId

In

za

1515 RrMIIIII($nIIIII"
1J.'"
110% 30nina ii.n*.
ft.
12. DIfl'ICidon( .. ill
210
11' IMlProl1N
37.'"
11.3% IncarliTo RaIl
1.41
I.G Net PraM_.
45.0
.0.0 WorkkI; tIp'l ($nil)
Z50
Z50 Lanllt.,. DIbI (WI
1235 14~ Shr,-*b'
(Wi

108.3
1B1.0
31.5%
8.1"
22.1
24U
1126.1
13.7'" f n
16.1% 11.'"
13.6' 1. 0%
1~% 1""

13.~

15.i
13.'"

'''''

RRII'n an TaWCep'
RIlIm on StIr. EaUm
RIitIinMIill eo.. Eq
AD DiY'ds ill NIl Prof

1.20

.IlI
J5Z5

20.'115"
3%5

.J1j;~

I.'"
110
250

zt3S:
10"

15.'"
115%

1'"

CItk:kens & Biscub, 3187. 20CXldIIprec nile:

~'1~~:u=:~~:=:r:;,=~'1=
(3101 pmry). Chnnn. & Founder: R DIIVidThomas. Pres. & CEO:
John T. Schuessl8f.Inc.: OH. Add.:.288 W. Dubm-GlanvilB
RoiIl:I,
DlIbIin, Ohio 0)17.

Tel. 814-764-3100. Web: www.wendys.com.

1J

portunity for Wendy's, as consumers have


~eednalincreasingly seeking healthiLasertifast100
tematlves in recent years.
y,
A lower share count should
bolster
Wendy's bottQID line in 2002 and
beyond.
Since 1998, the company has
repurchased 33.1 million
at
approximate cost of 5119 million.. 11rls tally
Includes tts October repurchase of 9.7 mIllion shares from TIm Horton's co-founder,
Ronald Joyce. The cost of the transaction
totaled $250 million, of which Wendy's
provided $50 mlllion in cash. The remain
ing $200 million was financed through
short-lerm borrowing. The company then
issued $200 ml1llon of senior notes to
repay the debt. All told, the repurchase
will probably be accretive to 2002 share
net by $0.06$0.08.
These
shares are an unexdting
selec.
don for the eaming sbl: to 12 months.
Longer lenn.,. they offer about average appredation potential at the cu.rrent price.
based on our projections of 12%-15% annual earnings gains to 2004-2006.
Carrie GaleotafIore
December 14.2001

shares an

p6ennal

(D) Ind. iltangi:lles.ln 'UO: S43.7 i~pan"'FIn8nd81 StrMtgtb


43/1'1. (E) In mliJns. (F) '95 revs.
S1Dc:k'sPricli S1abllty
restiIted i:I r8Ied Tm Iiofi:)ns.
Prb Growth hrs11t8nc8
earnings Prmictabilly

ma.,

c. ZUll, IIue I.N f'lIIlIsI*'!I. lIE. AI rialts re5oWftIlI. lldilllllllltfi.


is ~
InIIII -.ces b*wd Illi be ~
..
is pwidelllIboul.
wMW'Ilie'l III ." U1d.
niE PUBUSHER IS NOT Rl!PONS8L 'tOR Nf'f [RRORSOR OIoISSlON'SH~.llIispubi:lli:ll
i5sD::1y"'~'-'IIIll'KU_c:ioII.
iIIUrnIIll5II!.iapllt
IIIJ lie ~
__ , ....
hrI!IIi8Id i1any pnrd.....
II .... fila II IUIIIlb ~
II'
IIIJ pi'tId .1idcIIir: pIIbi:Ilia ~
II' "adIItl

d.

~
-..

:~er~:~~~d~~
:;o~~,=.:n;: ~~~ r~~ ev:~~m~~~
~

1.

::

20122
1B.5'\
91.9
166.6
38.010
8.010
65.6
2(9.0
10654
12.9%
15.6%
12.!l\;
18%

.Bl
12%

Un

=
1.:: ::

1.12
!%

~::r~~792ofsJ=~=~e=:
~ura:r:a,~

$1.66. Third-quarter earnings carne in two


cen ts srhy of our estimate, mainly the re''Cash Flow"
11.0%
8.5% 14.~
s tul 0
a few ongoing macroeconomic
Eami'lgs
15.5%
7.5% 13.5" hurdles. In particular. hJgh beef costs and
=~I~
9.0% 9_0% 1~:~
negative foreign currency translations
i-=="::'=;=====~='-:"':';:=-1 hurt margins. Moreover, the weak economy, funher upset by the terrorist
attacks,
f-7.;;;;;'~~~;;;;;:;;'-''7..';'-?-~0i'-f''t;;';;;;''
resulted in below-antidpated sales in the
1991 455.6 630.0 485.2 .77.4 1918.2 period. Looking ahead, we have trimmed
1.
476.5 528.6 533.3 533.8 2Dn.2 our foW1:.h-quarter earnings estimate by
2000 518.6 568.4 m.6 572.3 2236.9$0.03, to $0.42, as we believe the operating
::
:.6
:.6
:6
environment will ltkely remain dtfIlcult
EARHltGSPERSIWIE".
over the near term.
C,," Ua,.Per J,n.Pe:,
'Per "'-- Pel ::~ We believe the company
should
be
andar
l iH'II,I
..... "..
able to return to its long-~
share1.
.18
.33 .33 .29 1.13 net gnrwth goal of 12'%-15% in 2002.
.25 .39
.35 .33 1.32 helped by a few initiatives. WEN's new
.30 .43 .41
.39
;:
beef-purchasing system ought to help ease
2002 :~
::~
:~
:~
1.10 some or the pricing pressure In the coming
QUARTERl.'tDMJENOSPAllc.
quarters. Whats more, national advertisC",,""ua,.31 J,n.30 S. '30 ~ " ~:~ ing spending is slated to increase by 30%
ar
.n_.'11
-..
next year, and should play an integral role
1197 .06 .06 .06 .06
.24 in the company's marketing strategy. New
.06 .06 .06 .06
.24 pnxiuct introductions, such as the Double
1191 .06 .06 .06 .06
.24 Bacon Swiss sandwich. and the rollout of a
.24
new salad program should also help boost

~~r~l
"~"
5:.5"" tt~:

ANNUAL
RATESPat

.99

.-biIiIJ

II:

80
50

90
II- ,

RECEHT
PRICE

JOHN WILEY & SONS NYSE.JNA


SAFm

2 RHIll1/U1:l1
3 .......,

TECHNICAL

1 .....,,_

TII[UN[SS

PRwEC110NS

Price
High 35

Low

...,
.S.

-.

2_-15111

5.

1.

l-lDrl~

lG't&

2_-'~

1ft
6m

2..forl~

:~:.'

..

2Q2.1
P.~nt
35
5M.rn
t~ded
3205.

"

31Zi:

..1-

".

4'0;1
f.D

--..

1.0

,...
...,

MARKETCAP: S1A bClilon (MId ClIp!

1116

CURRENT PosrrlJN

Ca:'~

149.0
53.8
40.0
132
25fl.O

R&ceivabl8!
IrTV8'I'1tory(Avg Cst)
Ass8ts

34.7

Ac:cts Payabl8
Debl.Oue

Other

Cuf18n1 U8b.
RATES

IIl'

Re'lenues

Aow"
Eami'1gs
DMdends
Book Value
"ClISh

,.

--

195.1

Put
IITIL
8.0,,"
11.5%
27.5%

6.0,"
6.5%

713111)1

42.3

6.1
96.,

46.1

20.6

50.6
23 .

""""i7'f.f

1782

....

45.8

30.0

30 .

121.6
213.4

254.1
Past Est'd ... 00
Of...
11.5%
15.0%

250%
12.0%
14.0%

......
.....
".5"
....
e
10.M'

17.M'

QUARTEJlLYREVBIIES(I.-j
~"'"J.L31
0.1.31 ..... 31AiIi.'lO

."""

122.1

.'"

1'~~~

.67

.47
.12
.07
.11
1.16

Sf
.19
.01
.10
1.31

6>

",,3
1.35
2.5%

m.9

20J
l1J

1.7"

294.3

12.6% 14.5"
21.5
23.8
1.7
12.1
21.011 29.0'
4."
1"
31.B
35.0
310
16.0
11.3
82.3
9.4% 12.9"
10.81
5.1'

14.11

53'

34'

Nil'

9.'"

111.1

16
'2

'0

..

'

"""
~.. -

.....

.....

'.

,". -<l'
,,,.
,,,.

.'
,

242
642

165.1

1995
.996
1997 1998 1999~00
2001
2002
5.08
7.53
679
7.30
9.80 1020
1120
1120
.n
1.33
1.06
1.15
1.30
1.45
.86
1.00
.31
.31
.16
.60
.11
.93
1.05
1.15
.09
.10
.11
.13
.14
.11
.11
.13
.14
.19
.16
16
.JD
.JJ
16
1.65
2.03
2>1
2.40
3.10
2.85
'.J5
7.
.55 ....rl tIlI.91
n.w
OJ."
20.,
,..4
221
20.2
241
30.1
20..3
1.32
1.36
1.52
1.13
1.48
1.16
1.49
~
.7,
1.31.
1.2\
1.0%
1.3'
.8'
508.4 606.0 613.8
331.1
362.7
4120
-467.1
145
005
lU,
11.6% 224\
17.01 17.0% 11-'"
15.'% 16.5% 18.0'
27.1
13.0
23.0
34.3
41.01
50D
11.8
11.G
18.3
24.7
20.3
228
38.7
55.0
70.a
514
31.5%
31.5%
38.2\ 36.0\
29.0'
36.4"
34.1'
36.6'
360'
ln
.4.11
8n
91\
8-'"
111
31.5
3!J.l
591
60.9 dn.o
d57.3
d4"-O
df5.Q
_.
125.0
125.0
125.0
65.0 ftD..
95.0
160.8
1512
1127 220.0
98.8 118.0 129.0
m
91\
18.5' 20.9%
9.3' 15."
21.1"- 19.5' "0%
18.51
24.5\
25.51
24.0% UO%
30.3'
2OJ' 15.81 141\
162% 10.9%
9n 19.6" 25.3% 20.5" ".Dll fJ.~
13.7"
18%
18'
15'
1'"
3"
26'
3"
20'
520
.65
18
.08
.12
1.55

...

FIcnr-,..

CuIl
ENnings pII' sk "'DIY'II. DKI'd J*' Ih

CIlI' SpolKin, .. III


Book YIIuI pIl' III D

~-

....".

..,

g VALUEUNE PUB. ~C.


RI'i'IfIIJII pi!' III

... ........

-..: ...

."

."

U"

..

Ayg Ann' P do
RtIrUv. PIERdo
Ayg Ann' Div'd YWd

=:=
,,",It_.

O_(lnm)
Nil P10lt llnolll
InCDrM Tu RIle
Nil

,""
....,., Sl1r.-EoOOYllnlli

"'"

W9II<in9CsfII (lmlt)
lao,T ... _ (lnII)

R.turn an 10lil CIp'1


R_ ... Shr. E,.,ft,
Rltlinlll"

m CDIII Eq

AIllm'ds .. NIl Pro!

04-16
1.5.15
1...
1.50
.20

....

7.111

n.w
20.'
1.2.

-'"

.n

IlDll
14..
.1.

.,,,
".
,..

31.5%

'"

11.0%

'Ull

'"13"
Oll

dergradUate and gfilduale students. 2000 deprec8tion me: 11.2%.


Has abacA 2300 tWnpbylles. Bass .... nagemem Trust owns 11.41
d coomon sock; G80Capial
Group, 7.9%: OIan
& di'edl:n,
23.0,," (8101 Proxy). Charman: Bradford Wiey. P.."iden! & CEO;
Wi!iIm Pesce. lnc.. DE. Address: 605 Thid Avenue, Nlrw Yert. N'(
10158. r.lepltone: 212-850-6000. lrJf8met www.riJymm.

In late September. John Wdey &: Sons


completed. its acquisition
of Hungry
Minds. Hungry Minds is the publlsher of
the For Dummies series of books and
Frommer's Travel Guides among other
Utles. Roughly 98% of the Hung:?, Minds
shares were tendered at a price 0 56.09 a
share in cash. All told, the transaction was
valued at about $183 million. consisting of
590 mUllon In cash and the assumption of
592 mIlUon in Hungry MInds' debt.
We beUeve that the purchase
price
was fair, and in line with book pubHshing
standards.
Hlstorlcally;
book
publJshing companies are often valued. at
one limes armual revenues, and Hungry
MInd's annual sales had been approximately $ J70 mlllion. We do not expect the
aC~u1s1tion to have much impact on
W ey's 200J share earnings. but the deal
should be accretive thereafter .
Meantime. John Wiley posted favorable results in the July quarter. Share
earnings of $0.31 represented. a 19% advance versus year-ago levels, while revenues increased by a more modest 5% and
6%, excluding the effects of adverse curreney translation (roughly 40% of total

revenues (:ome from foreign markets).


We look for WiJdi:s top line to mcrease sharply,
ue to the HWlgry
Minds' acquisition. In addition, we expect
revenues within JWA's Sclence, Tedmlcal.
Medical (STM accounts for 44% of total
revenues) to edge up by about 7%. due to
finner journal subscrtpUon renewal rates
and revenues from recently added journals. And Professional Trade (33%) reve
nues should post a mid-single digit ad
vance on the heels of strong back.llst sales.
WUey's fiscal 200 1 (began May 1st)
share net should advance by about
U~ due largely to increased sales, Plus,
earnings will likely benefit from a hJgher
percentage of sales coming from JW~s
wider-margin STMjournals_
Our projections
call for Wiley to post
annual share-net
gains of about 9% in
the Den few years. due to annual mJdsingle--dlglt revenue gains, coupled with
gradually rising margins. Some of this
good. news, however, already appear
reflected in timely Wiley's current share
price. All told, this equity offers only moo.crate 3~ to 5-year total-return potential.
David Gallen
Navember 23. 2001

n.

lon, or $4.65 pm Ih;n.

r..- ..

20

BUS"E$S: John Wiey & Sons, Inc. pubIi!ltles boOks, jcunalll, IIOd
Bdroni: procIud$ iI l:Hee an bw:nesses: sasllV"lC, tec:hnCal,
.nd medI:aI (STM); prtJI"essi:lnallbade; .nd lIIducalionl.L STM EcouniId fc.I" 42% of MverlU8 .. fisr;81 2000. The prrhssionaVQdli
program fOCUES on bUsinBA, Irdli&:hn, .nd hospa.lity/culNry
n.
educalDnal secb pubis'les its m.....
for un-

po,...,,,,

&arrI.

lHEPUIll..ISi'ER ISIrIJl Rt.


allllllJ lit IIplIbm. rtWI.

--

D8c&nb&r.
July 20111,and ~
(8) Ne:d dNit8ncl me&ting aboUt D9tambef'
fe) In miJD1s.
o zm1, ..
Ute ~~
mmeII. fM1l8l fIIIIeM is ott ....

2.i:

'" lOT. RETURN1Mn


nos

..

4.43

rll"

, ~

123.6 138.0 12'.7 508.4


153.3 161.1
152.2 806.0
139.'
153.9 160.6 163.8 135.5 613.8
145
161.0 fN
1..
2"
lD5
ZlO
lDD
'05
f"
EARNINGS PER SKARE A
J.131 0c1.31 J 31- Aar.lO
.60
f.
.16
.10
.20
.1'
.81
1!11!l
.20
.22
.13
.26
.13
.93
20CII
.26
.Z1
.Z1
.31
.2i
.18
U5
2ID1
.2i
2DD2
.3f
.n ..13 1' 1.15
IIIWlIBlLY DNIlEllOSPAIl"
Full
co!end., lIu,31 Jlln.31 Sept.3D Dec.31 y.11
llt7
.025
.025
.029 .1l29
.13
1118
.032
.032
.032 .032
1!11t
.032
.032
.036 .036
.1'
.15
20CII
.036
.036
.04
.04
.Of
.Of
.00 _M
:Il101
(AI """I _
"nd3 ....
30th......
on 22nd. G.....
,"00" .lh. OW.....
diluted 1lIIm1l!l'. Nul:
report dll8 lite ~es: .ppmxinBtsly Janaury 2Otl, AJri 20th,
1!11!l
20CII
2101

...

;:; :.

".1

ANNUAL
Gfch ....

1992

...

..

- -- - -- ,.
- AD
32

.1.... 1

..

31"'"
1990 1991
1985
1986
1987
1988 1989
.Dl
3.12
135
150
2.lI9
173
.J)
J7
.41
.38
.39
.30
..
.(5
.01
.06
.06
.1'
..
.m
Dl
.01
.01
.m
.01
.01
.12
:a
11
.08
.06
.. 1.34 1.38 1.37 133
.. .. .7 .... J tI!:I.41
1,."
..
..,6
33.
45.'
.. 1.09 2.23
3.15
119
153
.. 3.'% 3.11. 2.5'
3.0\
2.0\
3.2'
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE u. of 7131101
2481
Total Debt $95.0 ma
D.... 1n 5 Yrs S!iS.Om"
10."
LT Int.rnt $6.5 mill.
LT Debt $65.0 mi.
20.1
3.8
(L T i'rt8Iust e.ned: 10.9x; IDt8I i'rtlnsI: covwage:
15.6%
10.S.)
(35' '" Copl)
Leu., UncapltaDzIId: AnnllBl ntrttals $14.6 mil
1.41
lOJ
'Inslon Uabllty None
36.0
89.5
5.6'
Cammon stock 6O,On,6964 shs. (65% ciCap'Q
5.11

Oth.r
Curnutt

--

Institutional Decision.
AS

50

:i!-for-'

.- '''''
37

2004 2005 2006

2 ~-

DJfMAMJJA

..,

Target Price Range

23.9
17.9

lH

eo
eo

12"

000010000
022011000
011111110

26.0

24.9
14.9

11M

f:55~1
"10%
.1"

25

7.0

p'"

Ann,ReIIIm
ToW
OC;~ lki::arrs ret'nJilll

GMn

24.2
12.3

14.3

55

2.

Insid.r Deeiaions

6.7

3.1

2.5
1.B

LEGENDS
liJ1l ~'5h F... " RMlire Pm Shl""

nm-MarUl)

.Ill

2OQ4.06

~I
1.6

Hlgh'l
Low:

22,761~fK)21.7(=~: lli) W~1.17l~ 0.8%

hanl1lUI:etBtMtIl"
0A."""RRORs.OROMI.SS1ClHSH[RE8lI.TlIis~is5h:lyb~_,_c
.....
boa .. IMll b ~
.......

.. hn5IIIIIlI m IIlJ pII*ll.lItlGlIlit

(0) "...-

... ,_

" 2000, 5263. ~~

Ad)Jstlld for splits.

20th.

...,

is

"""ftCII

SlDel'.
r1ce S1abllltJ
Price Grvwth
E.1JIinp PrNic:blbllty

70
95
65

powiIed wlhIIut WIlRlI*s aI ~UtIl

fIi*Il ..

---=

.. m""'''''_.
~.-ri:e

pall
.. "CilUcl.

".

II:

II.

.
lF 14.211~m20.3(~,:.nm~J%1.051~ 4.6%
WORTHINGTON IND.I NYSEwOR
r lSIT
CM
PRICE

2 'M"'"
3 ,-"VI"
3 _,,11n,",

TIIEUlIESS
SAFIY

TECHNiCAl

.90 (I.lIO. MMd)

Bm

High:

11.~

Low:

8.4

....

GIln

~t RdJm
.. "

35 (~14S%

""

.....,.
.... .." ,...... """

f_".JJASO

lQ'9'1

.
..... .. .-" .

,II

'I

'"

'

'

ou-

62'"
181.3

Current Ass8ta
Acds PaJilbi.
Debt Due
Othor
Current Liab.

127.5
13ll.9
427.7

20 ..

2005

{59'"

2000

or Cap'Q

..

1131JU1

.5
301.2
291.2
31.3
624.2

130.1
2.28.3

47.1

406.3
185.3
11.0

158.0

162.9
112.4
433.3

---

2006
50
40
32

874.9
11.3"
23<1
".6

5.'"
166J

9782
12.1%

...,

26.9
36.3\

5.""
180.4

5.91

217.0
59.0
57.4
".6
356.0 386.7 433.1
13.9'
11.3'
12.9'
12.5% ".3%
15.3'
5.8'1. 7.3% 8.5"
54%
'9%

."

1286.'
11.S'
32.'

I.

".

"'TOt

,,<I

""
.....

......
..,.
'2'

RTURM

16-21
1...
1.01

19.n
1.50
.97

16.81
1."
.85
.53

19.60
1.80
.90

22.89
1.99
1.12

!iT

.61

.64

.63
650
"90.801

120
7.01

1.19

320

120

.78

HO
9O~ 96.71

<07
96.66
21.'
1.13
2.9%

.83
7.85
85.75
12.8
.85

19.9
115

15.8

116.1

37.41 37.5%
6.6'
1.9%
232.6 212.1
54.1
53~
503.9 590J
15.5'
18.6'
16.8% 19.8%
1Ul
13.6'
39%
31%

".2

-21'

2X

20.'
1.18
2.>%

14n.S

1911.7

162404

11,a

10.8'
51.4
93.3
38.0%
,<1%

12.1%
61.5

392
9"
JIl2%
'2%

3Z.u
296.7
639.5
102%
18.3%
8.0%

*'

82.3
37.01
5.1'
347.3
233.0
450.4
439.6
715.5 780.3
8.8'
7.""
13.0% 10.5"
6.9% 4.1'
81%

." ."

BUSINESS: Wath"gbn
Indusres. Inc. ..
three tlusineu li'les:
Processed 81Be1 Products. Metal Fr..ning, III1d Presstn CylindelS.
Processed 5.' Products (whIChis pnx:ess;lI' d ftRtJIBd stee~
consists d The Worthington StBeI Company and the Gnens.
Co. MllCal Fnlning cons5ts of DiIliEh lna'lIShiIs. IIIC. Pr9Isin
Cylixlln consists of WorthilglDn Cyind8r Corp. ABa holds equity

7.61

89.95
14.8
.801
4.3"
1763.1
12.7%

78.5
83.6
31.0"

.n

196.6

385.8
689.6
9.9%
12.1%
4.5'
63%

.,a
1962.6
'2.3%

n.o

99.5
37.S%

-21.0

11JD1 ~

30.'
70.1

2002
21.39
1... 11 Wapii'll! A
1.24
till -taM fllN" IJIf III
. 2
.711 &mings pII' III III

16.33
1.66
1.29

1483.6
12.1"
34.1

20
18
12

..

... ... ... ...

1115.7
12.3%
292
662
37.0%

,.

J'

'".
. eVALllElJ1lEPIIIl,IIt

1.06
2.0%

.,1'101

I"

1" .

36.3"4
ofCap'Q

MARKETCAP: S1.2 b1Ulon (Mid Cap)

Receivables
I","""", (FIFO)

Target Price Rlln~

7.'

3 ".

..

PId Stock None

7.'
281.7
257.0
78.0

15.2

t.O
&.o~
3.0

Plnsion UlbilifJ None

11IIlL)
""........

'

..

(LT mM!St eamecI: 2.ax; kltal inter8sI.


coverage: 2.7x)

CURRENT POSmON

17.0

11.1

'

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE u 01 Bl311D1


Total Debt $303.4 mill. DUll ~ 5 YIS $175.0 mil.
LT Dtbt $292.4 mi.
LT !nt.rut $28.0 mil.

17.7

'I

. .. ..

"

(31%

"

..

,...

19.8
10.4

15.1

',1" L.--

.. '

.. ..

8.5,391,215 shs.

220

"""3
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1~1
10.22
12.38
14.19
9.86 10.91
7.52
8.09
9.89 11.14
8.78
.85
.n <12 1.06 .29
.58
.63
.94
.64
<12
.
.61
.70
.63
.7.
.50
.
.20
15
.33
.37
:II
.12
.13
.18
.16
.3'
.61
.32
.51
.13
.50
21
.13
.7'
21
,.56
164
<81
155
2.51
'.00
2.80
'.35
2.'8
"3
89.6> 88.70
89.31 90:
90.56
9l1l" 90:26
8m" "lI:lJ6" ~
16.6
20.0
21i
20i
22.3
III .IT 18.5 lIT RO
1.23
128
.29
1.35
<17
1.06
12. 121
'.35
2.51
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.0%
In
2.5%
2.1%
2.0%
IS%

S1oc);

17.5

'

~~

Cmtmon

22.5

ftdialt.r nd'SSobn

' .

000 000
100
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 1 000
Institutional Decisions
,ll>lt1
Pen;ent
79
72
IIh.,..
79 'riided
355<,
30750

., ...

23.3
16.8

,.ro,

R~PnteSlr!rlgll1

3-laf.25p1

~-2~~1l1'9]

low
25
+75%
InsKler Decision.

23.5
17.5

n.D. ~Ca91r.. p 91

.....,... eeed ~

Price

12.4

LEGENDS

2OCU-4i PROJECTIONS

.....

21.7
15.0

17.6

9.1

7.61

85.JIl
23.7
1.33
6.4"
1826.1
7,.4%

70.6
35.6
36.5"

5."

2.0%

'90.9
362.2
673.4
11.3"14.8%
6.9'
53%

143.1

3092
649.7
5.4'
5.5%
NMF

NMF

.N DWdl o.d'dpll'lh

.lO.1lO

100
100

e-

.9Il IC",'I $pond;". "" oil


7.7(J Boc* YIIuI
lit
15." ComlllGl Sh. OutJfg D
AVII Ann'l PIE Ralo
~tktiv.PIE Rdo
Ayg Ann' DiY'd YWd
1750
1~IA
117.0 D."...;ncn 1"'1Il)
"'.11 Mol ""'It l$noil)
!neon. Tu P.aII
Not ""'111 ....
Clop1
(ln1lJ
110
190
~~,s-;I)
$hr.
. $IwI
R.tIn on TaWC.'
Sh-.<
9."" R......
RmiMd to Con Eq
All D!Y'c1. to Nil Prof

'*

..""

37.""

14" W_.

.... l,:,,;;:

...

1.1'

flOO

atoo
.. 0

1.00
1'"
Z500

fl""
10.0
17.

.."

37.""

H/J

300
JOO

l""

,.""

..""

fl.""
11.'"

"'"

"'"

.tes i'I B number at jom vellba opera(i>ns. '01 deprec.. r3'le


5.9%. Has about 7.800 eIf'C)Is., 11,000 slldlkJn,. John H. McConnel
CWIIS18.9% d strd (8101 Pro:q). Chilirn"en and C.E.O.: John P.
MLQxIneII; President and C.O.O.: John S. Clwisl:ie.IncDqlDl'iIted:
OfIio. Address: 120:5 0Nrb0m Dn\oe. CoUnbus. 0110013085. Tel.:
&14-438-3210. ln1emet www.Warthingixllndusns.mrn.

60.'

Worthington IndU5tries appears to be earnings could reach $1.00-$1.10 a share


tunl..ing the corner, as the custom steel In the upromlng 2003 accounting year.
processor proceeds through the second half 'Ibe good news is that Worthington is
llYn.
of the fiscal year, which. ends OIl May 31. positioned to post more bnpressive
Sales
7.5%
&.5%
12.,",
"Cash F!aw"
2002. Earnings, for example, now have eandngs numbers down the road. For
3.0%
7.0""
EamiJlls
3.0,,"
2<!.1I"
-5.5"
been higher for two consecuUve quarters example, debt catlos have strengthened in
DiYijends
9.5%
8.0%
with success In new customer development
recent years; market share continues to
BDOkValue
7.5%
7.0"
4.0'"
efforts and a widening In margins helping rise; capadcy remains up to date and
F

Fiscal
A
Q11I1lTBllY SAW ~ d1
Fiscal to increase &rolltabillty at the 18Cfaest
plentiful; and recent acquisitions are now
unit.
Aiug.31 Nor. Feb.2:1 111)'31 Yu,
Processed
eel Products. 1his
vorable performing weU. Thus, once we get several
387.5 392.7 397.5 886.7
trend should continue during the fiscal quarters of better economic results under
,!III
4ll!l.3 436.' '221
.95.3 1763.1 thJrd and fourth quarteTS. In all, net is
our belts. and the steel lndustry. which
863.0 473.3 886.5 539.8 1962.6
20DD
likely to reach SO.65-$0.75 a share for the cyplcally lags the business cycle by a
488.2 457. 818.7 41;5.8 1826.1
full 1Z months. which would be materially
quarter or two, finally starts to partidpate
4ll!l.6 810 . 830
2002
lIlO 1150
better than the unusually depressed tally in the recovery, thts now well-conflgured
Fiscal
EARJIIrIGS PER SHARE
booked a year earlier.
Fi",",
VU,
processor and distributor could well be in
<- AUVJ1 Nov.31 F.bJll Illy 3' Vu, The comeback is likely to be partial in a posllJon to book some surpisingly s.trong
.22
.26
.86 scope and uneven in quality over the operadng numbers. Our sense Is that
1998
.18
.'9
.18
.31
.90
.21
.20
next year. The prlndpal unknown. as we
longer-tenn earning power now Is In the
1.12
.26
.32
2DOO
.28
.26
. 2 look out to the company's fiscal 2003, is $2.0o-a~share range on an average basis .
.15
.17
21181
.08
.02
stock. accordingly,
2QQ2
.7lJ the state of the domestlc economy. which The good-yielding
.17
.24
.13
.IS
is laboring through an evolving recession. still offers intriguing long-term total
Full the magnitude of which is now somewhat
eo. QIWlTERl.T D1VIlEIIlIS PAIl"
retum possibilities" notwithstanding the
IIlr.31 Jun.30 Se".3O DK.31 Vu,
greater than it would have been prior to strength shown here over the past year.
.51
1197
. 2
.13
.13
.13
the September 11th tragedy. Our sense is with deddedly less risk than the cyplcal
.53 that a recovery in COP should be In place
.13
.13
.'3
metals stock. Year-ahead performance
1!111
.15
.01 by this spring. with accelerating growth prospects, meantime, are above average.
.4
.63
.15
.16
.6
.15
December 28, 2fJO}
I~ I .16
16
.64 after midyear. Given such a scenario . Harvey S. Katz. CPA
.16
.6
chB .... , w, Ilj; ......"""', ,.~. 118,111j; :Ill. J""" :Ill. Sop......
:Ill. D_.
29."\ C... p.ny'. F~._ .......
ends
31st of calBndIr::-.
9'
ANNUAL RATES

'''''~I.-''''

Pul

,.t
n...

276.7

.......
..'"

Est'd ... 01

..""

,.
t=

'62A.'

A.

''''

....,
,.

... ...

...

'AJFar)'9IW

U.,

B Average shares thrOUgh r1SCil11997. asK:


theniafts". &l:iJdes tJs.seI from disa:Jntinued
operiIOOns, '98, 18': '99. 23; Bantnlng

loss, '00, 6. NQxI ~ings


report .. ....
Div'd rvinve*nent plan available. (OJ In mi..
(e) Ned divilend meeting about Feh. 21. Goes mjusIgd b sDc:k spits.
ax lboul: Mar. 12. Div"d PIiI)'n'IIlnt di'M: Man::tl

StrJck's Pr1Q StlbllIty


Prtce Grvwttr. r.rslstellc:ll
Earnings Predldliblity

85
'0
50

To subscribe call '800-833-0046

Docket No
Work paper # 4 t o .FJH-11
P.tl3-4

BRE PROPERTIES NYSESRE


~

Hlghi
low:

3 .....""'"

2 ... ,m",
3 ..... "n""

SMElY
TECHNiCAl
lllOl-45

Gain

2 ... , ~

DJF.A

-.

17"
K

....

.... - .. .....

I..

....

".,

..

P.~nt

54

47
21825

Sf Dlbl $429.0 mil.

"'"
15.6 '"
M.8
1.18
8.0~

DUll In 5 V,. $450.3

MARKET CAP: $1A bfiL(Mid Clpl

'''7
'0.'
109.3

mil.

.- ...
,

88.4
10~

67.2

'43.7

56..

210.7

5'.0

58.5

55.1

290.3

104.2

62.1

73.7

',8.2
313.3
51.1

AJrtANCIAL P08ITtON

12fJ1M

12131.
Senior Deb!: (mil.)
$752.1
Subordinlded Debt (mill.)
Sr D&WCap'l Funds
.50:1
TC181 DBbtlEQUly
.98:1

mu

..

..

....8:1
.94.1

PORTFOlIO CONDITJON Year A1JO


Mtges Repaid in CU8J'tIl:r (mi.)
1.0
Loss R8IfiV&-%/Invesls.
.5%

'-1.0
.5"

REALES1ATEI~.I
Jun.30 S.
Dec.31
190.2 798
838.3 13021

lIu.31

,.7
1191 1367.5 lm.6
1919 161~6 158H

1~.3
16lM.9
1620.6 1670.3
lllOO 16892 17.a.2 I.
1711D
1725 '75ll
1775
I.

EAINIGS PER SHARf.

Co'
1Iar.31 JU8'
-.

....,

1191
'.7
1191
1919

lllOO

.33

.:w

.35

.~

~D.:iO-Doc.31

.:K

.2

:I7

.32

.38
..0

..0
A5
54

.35
.38
.~

.0

All
.45
54
_Y
lWaIIlSPAIle
lor.31 J.n. SepL30 Doc.31
.315
.33
.33
.33

.345
.38

.39
.15

.345
.38
.39

.38

.3015
.38

.39

.39

.15

.425

.3015

=--"l'''-'.
CII
yea-thIredlr'. 1121"31196 est"d a~
8SIII valle IdS $22.3Dr'sh. fB) Baed
on svg. 5hares outsttg b '97, cliUllld Ihw&pnlised

CI ttal. VIlle lile ~


THEI'WUSKRlSNJl
RE
d.illlllflJr
.....
....,.~

28.7
21.5

26.4
20.'

Target Pric_ Range


2003 2004 2005

33.7
21.8

00
60

-.

. ........ ,
,

..

.,

...

,
'.-".,

. ',....".

.......

..

",

,.,

1. ~1I111

Full

y..,
1.37
Ul
1.55
1.71
1.15

.."

y..,
1.31
1.38
1.'"
1.56

- -- - --

50
40
32
24

,.

20

II ,

12

..

10

... ..

.....

. . ..

...

..

... "..,..... -

'" TOT. REJUalMID


1" .

3".

LTDtbl$41i'.5.
LTllttlIlnf$32.0mil.
(TollIl ininsI al\'ldge:
2.8.1)
('34% d Cap'!)
PId Stocl $53.8 m_
Pfd.Dl'd $4.6 mil.
2.15ml. .trs. SIIlriBs A cum. at iquid. value.
(4~"Clpl
Common Stock 44,921,387 SM. (62% of Cap1)

fUNDS FLOW($nn1l.)
Net ProM Plus
Nol1Clsh chlrges
Investments R8palid
Net New Debt
New Equity
Investmenta
Funded
Dlvid..m Declared

23.,
30.0

2-1or-1

""'"
38.1

15.4

2S.2

31.5

-".VlUlE""
LIE I'IlIl IIC
91.6

1989 1990 1991 1~2_


1987
1988
8.65
8.47
8.93
9.13
8.90
8.99
1.16
1.11
1.17
125
127
112
0.94
1.02
1.28
1.157
0.91
1.28'
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
12.63 ,m 12.65 12.05
12.31
1134
15.76 15.82
15.82 15.84 15.84
15..

7.1 12.8
7.1
7.1
1.29
.66
1.116
.46
.46
8.3\
1.8%
81~
8.3~
B.'"
CAPrTAL STRUCTURE IS of 6I3OIDO

11!7
1191

17.3

'.0
4.'

.h.....

~.
,,~ .. ..

-,.
....-

24.8

o.a,1oIq

1984 1985 1986


aB7
1.05
8.02
1.11
112
1.28
1.15
106
1.75
1.18
1.20
.16
11.70 1U2
'221
15.46 1m
15.7.

ell-

lB.1
14~

recr1SDl

0 0 001
0
0 0 0 a 4 0
000
10 0

211M

encllr

'""".",:.

JA

,_.. ..
"""'
- ,.....
I'==-~
000
000
000
Institutional

17.3
14.9

19.9
18.1

15M

"l:::'10

lnakler Decisions

....
....

18.3
14.2

11A

...._"1.:- ..

RIU'n

l~l
+15%

50
35

15.0

14.4
11.2

~~~Di~:'

.ROJfca::,..;\ ....

PrIce

15.~ I
13.6

DIY'D
1IVE
5,7%
1Itdi1,,1IIf >IF
Pf RATKl 1 , 38 YlD
31 PfRATKl 18 5 (tniinlllJ

LEGENDS

.65 (100_ Marla)

IfTA

I~CEHT
PRICE

54~

7j
.88
9.1%

.. ~

'3j
.70
8.1~

1.11
1.31
1.,
1.20
11.51
ZU14

".. '"
lIj

199.
1995 1996.98
16.95
8.99 10.89 14.13
1.66
1.61
111
1.26
1.02
121
131
1.20
1.38
'.26 . 1.31
15.34 15.09 23.3$
3111
11...
11..
31..
41.14

'"

"..

lIj
.70
6.1%

lIj
.70
8.1%

.. ".. ,..

,11.9

.n 1.02
.n
6.6~
6.7'
'7To
101.6
5U
40'
16j
37.0
10.3
20.3
16.5
15'
10'
44.8%
48.7To ..!~ ".I' 48.7~ 36 . ~
38.'"
195.6
190.7
194.9
251.4
1&8" 3367 m.
1j
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1~
1.0
9.6\
7!~
1.6~
9.6'
9.5'
9"
9"
..
..
..
..
.. 12-4.0
.. .7 188~
65.7
63.0
.. .7
63.0
63.0
140.9
l.u 1493 1413 142.3 139' 14.1
90.9' 911~ 85.5% 911% 92."
80.0'
65"
ln 1.6~ U~ 1.S~
1.5'
1.6'
1.5'

.., .., .., ....

1D... "
10.8'

lUll.

8.9"
10.6%

12.91

12.9"

1-U'

14.4%

.63

5.3~

,,~.....

.. '"

17.3
1.02
5.7~

"'"
16.7

.15
61~

200

I.,.
I."

2.$$

3$.1$

pIf III A.

175 'CIIh _1*'111


US ~
.. rN'

1..

r_
/'IE_

X3J '--sUIII Estl*' III

c./)/)

lIIIIIOIl Sill 0If1II'1I

A'll""'"

AYg Ani' [W'd YIIkI

,...

...
"""

6.4"

GrDIIlntolll

0J.I5
Il75
11$

Dh'dl Dld'd pII" Ib C

....~ :::
-- R_'IE_

66"

IL4e lUll loak VIM

131.8
1032 134>
S
m
731
818
!IU
60.
.9'
3$J1\
19.8~ 312'4 :12-'" Wl'
1302.1 1604.9 1670.3
11IJIl
2$
1.5
2.0
28
7~
7.$l1 7-'"
7.5~
5~
188.0
164.0 315.0
Z5Jl
Z5Jl
3M .
517.1 "U
7IIl
707.5
12$
765.0
8152
541% $7.$l1 51.1lll
55"~
3.6~~
U~ U~ tQ" tal'
US
US
8.9"
'7% 6.1' 7."
10.6\
.n !I.JJ
8.'" 7Dl1 a\ 8!1%
BlInk.o'mln:l R81.1y. ill M., 24% rf totII; Proenilr::, , .. ,,;

.'

,,...

19.0

16,.4

17.30
1.10
1.41
1."
36.29

19A1
1717
1.34
1.55
1.55
31.38

2.2D
2.15
JUI
5JJlII

I,..
1l.5
Uil
Ul'

""

--

NotPralt(~
NotPralt_

13
JUl'

Looo'UIII,::-r
A'll_Poid

Sh.... T... DobI~1


LanoT... DobI~)
Sin.
Cap Md ... Teo Cap
Exi-sa to Asu1I
R8n CfI 10lil Cap'
__
'" SII. E"""

..

/)/)

11
7.8

,..

...

11..

58.al'
4.al'

J.JJ

Il.n

BUSIfE$S: BRE ProperI8s, Inc . ~


real esfa1e i'Ivestn1n1: tnlSl wIfI an .-nphllsill 011 i'Ic:cme ~
I1g real esIaht. Por1foio lit 121"31199: property ilv~
99%;
mortgaga
m:l
1%. R81.1 ...
I1IWnll8 IOII'l* i1 1999:
.~
931.. c:ann&Cill artd IWtlri, 11.; ather. 6". ~
ICKIl2S of Nel Operatng IrI:ome by milk.: San Franc:ism 8lI.y

Seatl.1Il. 10'10; San Siege. ""';


Los AngeIeI, 1OS ...
lltouf .f,020 5f'18nltlofd1R. Oft'"1C8I'S IInll'
di1!Jcb1I own 4.4% r1 curmon IItDck; S12IIIt F.... Inslnl'lC.l. 7.9"'.
PruderrMI \.JB. 8.4% (5IDO Prmy). Org.: DE. Ct'I1m.: J. Mctahln.
Pm.. & C.EO.: F.C. McDcMeI. Adlhtf: 4f 1I0lllgou_,
st. 8M
Fl'WItisco. CA 94104-5225. TMtphone: 415-445-6530.

BRE is concentrating
its investments
most promising
multifamily
housing
markets.
A D.aA~ty or this
REITs properties are in
omla, a good
portIon of that around San Francisco. Most
of the remainder
Is In other western
states. Economic growth in these areas
has exceeded the national average, and
the related job and income growth has
boosted housing demand. 1lle housing
stock. has expanded at a lower rate, reOectIng the scarcity of land and regulations
that Umit the pace of construction. Under
these cln:umstances, occupancy ratios ere
high and rents gene~
move up at a
pace exceeding that of
aUon and operatlng and financing costs. BRE Is increasing
its stake in these markets through the sale
or Its holdings In less prolll1slng areas.
There are additional
positive factors
In the BRE picture.
This REIT is In
volved in a number of multifamily development projects, which will be comfletect
over the next few years. In view 0 their
location In promising markets, we expect
good returns on these invest.ments. Indeed, the returns, though longer in coming
due to the lengthy approval and construc-

tlon process. w:Ul llke1y be wider than


those obtainable from the purchase of ex
Istlng properties. BRE's future earnings
will also 1lkely reflect Its increasing size,
which gives it advantages, in purchasing,
financing, and ~g
Its pro~es.
Despite its ~ce
the stock offers
a good ris adjusted
potential total
return. based on the growth we are
projectlng and the likellhooo that BRE's
valuation will mntlnue
to rise as its
strengths attract greater investor interest.
BRE has spun off its electronic
services subsidiary. Last year, the company
fonned a subsidiary. Velocity HSI, to offer
Internet and other communications !oet'Vices to tenants of apartment complexes, ineluding Its own. On Aur:,t 15th, BRE d1stributed about 9O':J6 0 its equity to its
shareholders. at the ratio of one Velocity
share for five BRE ~.
Velod~ is now
trading on NASDAQ (symbol:
SI) at
about $2 a share. The parent company will
thus get a share of any profits. while
stockholders
have
realized
additional
value. The possibility of other such moves
adds to BRE's investment ~al .
Millan Schlein
tober 27. 2000

eu..

In the

---"--"T-_un~_;~

due b Change i'I sh ...


Ind. Tranmel Craw
fn::!n Nav.'97. E,gs. ~ late Neri. EJd IIIJfQC'.
garJ in '90. of3. Excl pmpeIty Ails gains K1
resemd. , ....
m*riII is IIIUined ItDnl _
tJ*'IIllI ttl tIr

AI ~
SlBt.E ORNff[RRORSOROIISStQNSHERElt
it qPfi*ll, ~f6"'bm./IJed

ilb!:. Nov. 17. Goes 8X abt Nov. 25.


A;Jfs. dIV'd pI'n1 dItes: 20th r:I ..... Jun., Sep..
Dee. (D) In mil. sdfd far tloCt spit.
meeting

alii is ~

..,...

1IIb~i5*dJb"~~~="

1ar~

.......

A'IJ'piIW.~,.....

......-,;
"
... ciill.ftmlII_.

:1DpIII
tnd.

sene.pudItt

Stock's ricIIStablIly
Price Growth ParsiIdMce
Elmlngs PrMlldlbllly
I

I'.

95

.to
6S

II:

II'

I~ 31 ~oo 14.2G::;ll:nW~ 1.04~

CHEMED3 ....CORP.
NYSE.cHf
,.,.,.

TIIIEUIIESS

3 l.D.eIelI91199

SAFTY

TECHNICAL 3 Il:I6ed l1M!!J


lIEU. .5!i 0.00. MaU)
2110~ PROJtCl1ONS
Ann'lTotII.

GaIn
Rea
70 (+125%\ 23"
45 {.... s"'1 11%

Prim
Iflgh
lJjir

HIg~
38.8 I
Low:
32.51
LEGENDS

36.8 I
18.01

32A
24.3

2ll.3
17.3

32.8
25.5

40.3
30.4

38.'
30.3

40.1
34 .

25.'

1.3%
Target Prk:. Range
2003 2004 2005

32.
28.1

34.'
24.6

..

lDO
DO

1'1

....

111

..

s 1enil:II

,,,",

",~

111'11,1,,1"

",

-- -

"'1"

______

"

48

""
32

"1111""

2.

,.

2ll

.:'

I---+-+-_+----~_---+---"''-''-----..-,~_+-------+_---_+--+__-+ 12

J F ".
J J A
-117 9 0 0 3 0 0 [I [I 0
~
000000000
~I_
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2
Instltutiolllli Oed.lons
It_
1CDI
2Q2WI
P.~
-1117
42
-40
31

:::'1 4~ ~

.b.~

!U

.. 2.07
3.511
2.04
1.52.

,....

.69

9.00

1022

'01."
1.34
5.""

14.$
1.18
5.'"

40.03
110
1.47
1.56

44.45
4.19
2.28
1.60
1.05 1.01
13.34 lW

ndMI

1 yr.
3yr.
5)'1'.

:u

13.37
4.26
223
tn
1.58

'i1.fil

n.85

11.i'7
10.25

4.66
~6'
1.64
1.36

13.6
1.03
5.211

Tea' Debt $109.9 mil. Due in 5 YrI $65.0 ml.


LT Debt $83.8 mil.
LTIDteI9Sl S9.0mlL
Indudes $15.3 mlion in trust lRfemd seames.
(LT i1hnst eaned: 6.1x; tJtallrterest
COIAge:
5.5<)
(28% 01 Cop')
Pension Li.bi~ None
Lau ... UllClpitllizH AnnmllWltll1li $B.B mil
PM Stock None

ComrnonStod.9,869,8005hs.
(71% of ClIp'ij
as of 1131100
IlARKETCAP:.300milHon(Sm.HCl:pl
CURRENTPOsrrlQN
I.
1119 II'3IWO
41.4
45.2

Receivables
~~
(lIFO)

J1

CumnrtAss81s
Accb PilyBbie
Del:( Due
Olher
Cu~nt Liab.

124.6
10.3
4.4
~

91.1

17.3
55.9
2:::
111.8
11.2
11.7
75.5

14.5
54.9
~~::
111.3
9.7
26.1

98.4 --ill
109.6

4.3

...

1.3
12.1

25.2
W.1l

.....

'ft..iIInL

1115

8.0

23.9
16.a
15.0
1.62
U)9
1.25
01.41 ....31
5.'"
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of II3MIO

Ca:'~

1~.4

r--

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

2A

'.5l-Ca.A:IIIp~
R'*'t Prte Slrmgll

. ..

Insider Decisions

39.74
3.48
2.07
1.48

43.5
31.0

.7.
1t.ot

1.16
.64
101.06 13.68

1. "

1. B
1.26
7.3"
599."
9.7%
23.1
16.6
35.0"1.
2.81
49B

au

,."'

lB$
125
9.'"
352.3
5>%
8.1
11.0
30.0"4
3."
7B.7
IT.9

'.lO

U7
18.89

1.58
21.f8

,...

,...

".,
17.0
21.1
1.16
1.00
1.36
7.21 6.81 6.11
401.0 525.1 645.0
6."
6.9'4 7.11%
92
13.1
15.8
14.3 17.1 15.6
29.4\ 33.21 36.1%
3.61 3.31 U"
57.9 17.6 <Ill.6
103.11 98.1
92.1

112.5
10.4"
14.7%

139.4
7.9%

133.5
7.1%
10.7%

h,*

Nf,fF

NMF

125\

NMF

NMF

6.7"

1.41
'4.00
'.OJ

1372
9.1\
12.5\

1.91
21.89
,..

1.00
22.6t

~11
21.45

~16
2O..fO

10.011

10.41

10.40

'6'
11.7
21$
,,.
15.0
1.09
.73
125
.93
.91
6.01 05.5"
5.51
6.01 7.DI
699.2 683.8 341.1 381.3 453.6
7>% 7>% 10."
U% 10>%
182
18.8
15.2
17.3
20.1
20.8
31.1 17.1
19..9 19.7
38.'1 38.'" 38.81 3S.0" 36.41
3.01 HI
5.0% 521
4.3"
66.6
67.B 83.1
33.6
13.4
85..4 158.2
83.7
80.4
18.6

186.3
1.0%

208.7
U%

NMF

8.4'"
~

10.0% 14.6\
1%
51\

115\

NMF

98%

217..9

9.4%

64\

228.1
1.1%
7.5%

HIE
123'

BUS"ESS:
Cherned CapcnWX1 pn:w~ p1Lnlbilg and drail
cllllanrag 1elYE:es tlIDugh its RfRoIDr IUbsidHy {54' ci '99
IW8nll8S; T5ti ci DPfRbng proft), hc.mt healhClll1l SllfVices
tI'Iough PIlient Con (M; 15%), and feSlIentiaI appilnce and
.,-condlixling
f1Ipilir I8IYi:8S hough
s.w:. An.x:. (17%;
1O%~ Sok! Nati:Jnll San&ry Supplrf ComPlilny IOd Ormia Group
Ch

223.4
7.5%
8.9%

212.0
7.8"
9.3\

flIMF

Wf:'

109\

114\

2JD

2JD IC",'Sp01dlng.-'"
looIrYlla.~s11
9.M
....
9
__
A",""PlERdo
_~
R_PIERdo
"'A"Mn1DtY'dYJIId
515
5S5 Wn,(W) A
1m
22.0
2U DIpIciatltII(SmIl)
11.5
t1.$ HuPrtlIt(slIIin
3!ft 3I.ft ntcrIlITuRD
0%
4.1% NltPnlItIbrgln
340
41. __ 9"""1"'111
IIU
15.8 t.ongoT.-mDItrt ($nIII1
231
25D Shr.-EQytly($nIIAi1ft
""" RItImon ToIIICap'1
9.5% 9,0% Rnam on SIIr, Eq~
1.sf,
7.ft: RrlIintdtoCllI'IEq
14.15

a.1I

,C_.hI

1_1___

19%

1~

AlDiY'dstoNItPro'l

,55
JJ.S
Ul

1<9
1.95
.II
735
11.1"
JU
:J1.5

315%
U%
5U
15.e
320

9.5%
1D.5%
'''''
f~

(fcrm.-1y VIr.rtex), 9197; OuEloil CIMJnr.aIs, 4191. Has 7,B17 Eplay88L ESOP owns 1.1% of c::ort'II'Dn stock; tt'"an
.1Id dlllcin,
04.'% (3iOO proxy). Chaiman & Chirf ExtlCUM ~
Ectwn L.
Hutbn. Presil8nt Klrvil J. McNImanL IncmpcJl'ftd: 0eIlIwaRI.
Adchss: 260Q Chemed CenIer, 25S East Fifth S1re&t, Cindnnall,
Ohio -45202. Phone: 513-762-6900. Intfr'nllt. W'IIW.chlImed.am.

emed."s core Roto-Rooter


subsidiar:v
last month, should prove to the subsfdfcontinue to perfonn quite weft
ary's benefit. An accelerated marketing
ANNUAL RATES Put
Put Est'd'V}'.'.
Vibrant demand for its drain-cleaning and campaign targeting individuals wil.h prlplumbing services, coupled with the amtrivate payment sources should also help
''CashFlow"
-2.0%
<1.0%
,2.O'K
buuons of acqu1sitJOrt5, rontinues to I:wJost stet" results. Meanwhlle, compart.sons at
--2.5%
~:::
1~
the subsidiary's profits (which re~t
Service America (HVAC and major appllBoc* Value
6.5%
B.~
about 75% of the consolidated total). Manance repair services, 10% of profits) may
f-=='::;="""==~=='::-:---T=-i agement remains on the hunt for suitable remain dIfIlcult tn the near tenn. For one
.~
1Iu~1o~~~31
Full merger candJdates to extend Its reach and
thing, the segment 15 incurrlng hJgher
1-7.:i;;'-+"~;-'''':O'7",!"",-'':~+Y;;''':;';l boost market share. In addition to acquir- costs as It endeavors to bulld its hlgher1197 71.7 86.0 87.4 90.6 341.7lng independent plumbing businesses. the margin retail operations. These invest1.
88.4 95.0 96.5 101.4 381.3finn is purchasing Roto-Rooter franchIses
ments will likely continue crimping mar1999 105.7 111.4 11404 122.1 453.6 from operators, thereby a!lo'-'"n It to realRtns tn the shon run, but they Improve
20lIl 121.5 125.2 1218 IJU 56S
--..,
fo"",
2D01 134 137 UI
'''''
m tze all of the income from these operations. ong-tenn prospects. Internal initiatives
EARItIt6S PER
SHARE

Meanwhile, the subsidiary is making in- designed to lower costs are also underway.
L"....
;;CoI-".;:-,+=_=U:oc31;-:J:::
:::.3D~-=SOO:~-...:D0c.3:::::;,,'+-.'iF:.,~II;;-j roads in the international markets; it Chemed stock
might appeal to some
r
recently secured a letter of intent for its patient investors. The recent reduction
1997 .74 .40 .21 .37 t.72 seventh overseas master franchise.
in the dividend allows the company to coni..
.63 .56 .7
.32 1.98 But Ungering challenges at the other
tinue its expansion plans, but it shifted in::
.51 .9
.42 .4&
two segments
may temper the gains.
vester focus from income to growth. Rising
2DD1
1J5 For the past several quarters, profits at profits from operations, coupled with gains
QUARTERLYDMJEtIISPAII
CD
Patient Care (which provides home health
from the periodic sale of equJty investc.1- Ilr.31 JunJO SlD.30DlC.31::~ can: services and accounts for about 15% ments (which we include as earnings).
e""
of Chemed's operating income) suffered in should translate into double-digit share'991
.52 .52
.52 .52 ~re the wake of an unfavorable policy change
net gains out to 2003-2005. Based on that
1997 .52 .52 .52 .53 2.09 related to Medicare reimbursements.
The expectation. the stock offers worthwhile 3~:
.53 .53 .53 ~
~
pllldes were recently redrafted, but this to 5-year appreciation potential.
2DDD :~
:~
~
time the revisions. which became effective
Lars L. Bainbridge
November 3. 2000
(AI Ind ..sam of disc. ops.; '86, ~ '96.
"97, SI.32. Ind. ClIp'glUe '91, ~: '92. 19.:
.bl Feb. 5. Goes ex abl Feb. 20. Oiv'ds CcmPIfIO Flnucill Strangtll
B

I-:::=~==-=-:-::-::":::,-::-";:':;::~:::::-I should

~=""~"l

5:m~

tl-l~" ~~..

~r-;:

i:~

1i :: :: ::

001-

1:
g

Ij~'

(8 Basn:..,.. Em. nornc. & disc. ops.: '84, '93,.u; '94, ~;


'9:5, S9; ~, $1.51; 'S7, pam l!bt. fhllI 10th d bdI, JIIrM, Ssp., Dee.
22; '85, 45: '66,.12.14; '88,.S1.07; '9.1,14.17: nj; '98, 79t!; '99, 28j;.'OO 10, 7;; 2Q, 1.1~. D Div'd ~
plan ~I. (DI NlrI. San. Sup'92, 1Sj; '93. 23j, '94, 12.87, '95, 28t!. 'tI6, 6j, NexI egL IllIXI1due mil-Feb. (el fWxt dld ply Co. & Orme Grp. divest, 9197 (E) In mi.
Cl2mlI, VIlle tile ~
IrE. AI rJtU resef'l"IIII. hdllll II'IIImII iI; cttJined __
tIdiIrIm III be nt.l:iIf ... is ~Illt
...... ...-rar*s af M]' kiI ..
TH[ PUWSlR
IS 111)1 RES"POfllSIBlEl"ORNn
ERRORS OR CllaSSIONS H[REI(. 1biI. puticPln is sttIy IrX !UbsailIlnwn.IDI-cII'InM:iIl.
irmMI use. MIl pII1
Ill. rt8'J 1Ir J1PIDaIl Sb"I!Illll" hftIIIIA!lI i:lq...........-.: Ill" cthIJ Itmt. lII" Il5ellIa" ~
lII" ....
pUIIDIDL SInin! lII" pgdIEl

l1li'' ' ' ~....-

hxi ..Prb Stelity


Price: Growtb p',..~
Pndlctlbllity

95
20

_Eunlnga
I

, '.

55
:

II:

II

NEW PLAN EXCELH,..,NYSE.NXL

lWEUESS

4
2

SAFElY

-:.

26.'
19.8

24.4
18.8

21.5

23 .
19.6

25 .
19.9

:'"

'

".

"

,.1 .. ,,"

!i~~l ""
23"

'--:'"

'.

"
"

..

. .-.. .-....
:::.,

r......
t Pric.

17.<4

22.'
14.8

17.9

21.4

'"

..

.,

10'

"',

.84
.89
.80
M
.73
.70
.70
.7'
.73
Jl
.89
.68
3.46
268
3.41
2.93
2<.85
16.6i!
1716 20.61
m~ ..,~ ,,,,. 15
10;0
20.4
12.8
t3.B 3D.9
21.0
16.0
120
14.0
10.9
lB.'
6.2>
5.30
7.4%
6JO
6~
CAPITAl STRUCTURE as of II3OIlIO
.71
.80
Sf
253

.98

....

... ....

,.,

-.

....
--

." ...
.'"

3.61

34.11
" ..
18.4

1S!
S~

...

Inves(meltts

"

174.3
81.0
188.3 1495.0
79.0 142.0

Net New Debt


New EqUIty
Investments Funded
Orvidends Declar8d
FlNANCW. POSmON
Senior Debt

12.01.

-ll191
1999

2001

.38:1

y..,,,..

1996
1997
1111
1999

'tl;

- ..

fAlMfGS PERSHARE. A

Apr.lf J'1r II
.32
.33
Sep.3O Dec.31

V.,
""'"'
1.31

.35"
.3l\H
.39'
.36
.36
.29
.32
.05
.25
.34
.2ll
.2ll
Jl
Jl
.32
Jl
QlJARIERlYOJYII!llOSPlJlIo ,
.".31
Jun.30 5001.30 Doc~1
.346
.35
.353 .365
.365
:JO/
.35
.353
]48
.358
.:r1
.406
..0
.0lI3
.006
.413
.m .413
.41

1.50
1.02

lu.31

Jun.30

--

~"""
r- (J"~31~1::'",h..
. . earrmgs atW!J7.

1997. (B)
re;ot due
mi:l-Nov. "DO, Q2, $0.46; 01, $0.44; '99, 04,
50.52; Q3, $0.51; 02. SO.57; Q1, SO.55;"98,
I(l

$7.9
NlA

Doc.3,

Od. 31 Jan.ll
.33
.33
'1191

._,ea.

Lma
$71.4

..

lOANS lREAl ESTATE}

.....

21101

$1.9
$23.4

~:1
.Jltl

0d.31 JanJl-Aj,;;
J !1
000.0 1025.9 1031.3 1171B
~'
.1,.. .31 Sop.lf
25lIB" 2519 'lf6I
2675
2676 2637 2664
2635
2546
ZS15
zm 26!1 2&5 2&15

Fiscal

ll191
1111

236.0

'66.5
-""1

PORlfOUOCONDmOrN
Mtges Repaid in OLllll't8r
Real Estate Acq.
Develop. inv.

--

55.7
166.4

$960.0

$1003.0

Sr DebUCap" Funds
ToIIII D8bt/Equly

1197

-.

SubordilWt8d Debt

1199

.112.0 211.0
..
.124.0
50'.3

104.0

Repllid

211lO, VIlle lml! ~

1HE.PUIlUSiRISNJTRF
d" IIIII)' be ~

..,...

AI ~

6.1%

36.0

Teal thbl $1198.0mi.


D.-In Five Y,.. '175rni.
(40'1 rICap1)
TaIiIl kltt .. $92..5 ml.
Cammon Stock 87,650,OOOshs.
(.... oICop~
{16'1ofCapl)
Pfd. Stoc\ $265 mil
1.5 mi. 8' ia. canulati'tt;
11.3mil cr 8.675'1 S.
lies B cum. r8Ckn. 1.5 rrieL 7.8% SlOIs D step-up
rnm (at 1iQ. woW)
MARKET CAP: 51,1 Bllion (Mid Cap)

I'" ,

1.03
.92
1.115
1.13
3.90
'.56
35.15 44.'9
11..
"0
18.1 19.3
ISJ
17.3

1.15
U5
Fill.

y,..
1.41
1.45
1.09
1.61

16.1

68."
31.8

56.3.
3.3
160.3
22.1
VB.S

...

!f1

121
61B
48.36

127
lJ)1
1.32
11.32

221
5.6%

41.4
16.0
71.4%

47.6
17.1

71.0'"
35.1
39.'
80.9%
80."
10.1
'.B
173.5 304.1
18.6
17J
437.2
506.3
1252%

3.9'
10.7"
10.7'

23.1
5.4\

1.47
1.19

1.16
14.41

53.11

'';~';~
'~

6.4%

103.5% 109.7%
5.1%
4.6'
12 ..4% 11.8%
127'
12.0'

1.I1!
81
'.28
7.64
48.96

~1~
14.3
6.50

161
5.1%

1.80
1.25
1.40

1.74
1.31
1.44

15.83
58.1]1

19.89
58.9;1

6"

6"

17.&

11.2
13.1

13.3
6.60

215

206
1.50
1.049
30.20

1.-42
1.62
30.43
6755

""

ma

un.
UJ

14.3
B.7
6.7.

11.3

1.4\

6."

-21.4

.,,-.

..... -

lD.B

15.4

,5>

"-45

,.

41.51

.;""

_.

pit'"
tan

'"

Opo "" '"

1.25 ~pII''''''K
1-65 Div'dl o.crd per yD D
32.IS _.&RIII Eot "" III
6111

--..

126.4

96.'

..

'J
64.3.

A'll AIIII',
A'll An ..' PIFFO R6l
A'll An.., DlY'cIYWd

_!Wl

..

.....

-bgln'

-.....,. .

""Pn>It~

--

4.7,

U.

Q3.05

, UM
1.50
t73
'Ill
37-'1

:;
p,n;;;;

162J
2021 419.1 436~
4IS
s:u T....
4.1
.25..
'.1
'.7
'B
.25.' .... ko~
65.70 64.B' 63.1%
66.5. 61.1'"
111%
n.O 154.5 149.5 lID 146 Not Pn>1I(~1
51.3
62.1
70J
50.6. 49.6% 43.3. 36." 36.1'4 34."
2~1% &1%
6.0
1.0
1
Ni
III c.ptIIlloIn~1IiI)
3742
595.1 723.9 919.0 1171.8 2657.0 2664
zm laino & IIHI ~
....... T.... _ I\nIII)
233
206.7 236.4 412.7 10n.9
1220
11!11
26.1
f/loill
500.6 565.5 5705 659.7 145.0 1695.0 1611
1!IS Shr.-_
125.4% 103.9'4 92.1'
15.0% 75.3,
15.!ll I)N'cll Dtd'cI" FFO B
81.5'
62.5'
~.,; EIpon ............
6.3% 6.0'
6.1\
5.1'4
6.00
5."
8.6'4
a1,
9.0%
71.
6.$%
6.$% R_
.. T.... toop1
8.8'
7.0'
5.41'
9.1%
1~
RiIUn on SIw. Eepty
10.3'
B.6'
9.B' 11.0% 11.0'
'1.
65.3
11~
672.
'2.3
55.4\
B

....

..,.nd

IIIJYl

lU
1~
154
3U
6U'
ZIt
JU%
Ni
3356
1510
"11/1

U.

11";
101"

I'"

BUS"ESS:
Nw Pilln Excel ReaIy 1111S1.is sd-admiJistllllld
1n:ll1lllnaged, .cjIJity..crilnllld I'8iilI estaI8 itv'as1n1n11JUsI.IpedaIz
i1g i11he OtKIfl'!itIip of incarr-.prodUC'ilg shoppi'Jg maIs (J8 milar
squa f8Bl) .nd ~
(53 garden .Patrrent c:orM'IJniIIs).
IIlWlSIn'8nt ~
Inl Wi ..... i~a1IMI ..
~ the Mississippi. Top
tenants n:USe Krned. (1lIsI than 51. nMllue),
Food lion, KrogIr

(less than 2%~ W.I ....


Wl'lnDb:. (kiss than ''1). Has about
7S,OllO IhInhoIden;
800 empklyMs.
Off. & dr. conrol an 1!5linat4Id 8.51 d a:m; Wcftant Nwy Of"QI(s P8nstJn FurJd, ".a"
(est.~ Stidrtilg
Pens08nlondl..
SeJI, (1l5l.). CI1aimIn:
W6arn
NnInan. CEO: Glenn Ruflano. Adchss: 1120 6ttl A.ve., N.Y., N.V.
10036. Tel: i!12-869-3000.
IrrI8rn8t www.I'I8WJ)IanexClllQ)m.

Progress in acce]era~
Funds From
Operations (FFO) gro
at New Plan
Excel Realty (NXL) continues
to be
Impeded ~r1y
performing joint
ventures
development projects
inherited
from Excel. That seems 10 be
the view of the stock market, which contlnues to ~h
these shares for previous
missteps.
eral projects stand out as the
culprtts, although a whole host of other
Items still seem to be hobblJng management's attempt to resWTect the company's
fortunes. Management has tndicated that
a portfolio of single tenant dwellings will
likely be sold over time. suggesting some
property reshufDing of core and non-eore
holdings (such as a couple strip malls) is
in the can:Is. Depending on the prices
these properties fetch. the deals may well
be dUutive to year-ahead eatnings.
We recently slashed our estimates and
prqlectlons,
reOecting
a less upbeat
view of the company's overall pnJperty acquisition and development strategies. and a tougher economic envi~
rooment going forward. "the reasons for
the shortfall aren't all company spec!llc.
But we now believe the rating cuts and

bearishness pervasive among equity lnvestors wU1 preclude a higher valuation for
several more ~ars,
sInce the current
cllrnate Is about as Ideal as one oouJd expeel for RErrs. That could limit financing
opUons for expansion. NXL's top-notch
rating had been a h~
competitive advantage for most of
's history, sugthe reduction will have some spilover effect for year.; to come. Considering
that the head wtnds facing the economy
through 2002 will likely prove even
stronger, a prudent posture seems more
appropriate.
Investors
have been disappointed
In
this REIT. once considered the TIf
fany's of the business. We still think a
dOUble-dIgitreturns for the stock are likeIy, although we have less conviction about
that position, given the decision to
maintain the dividend leveL Stili, the Db
stacles aren't insW'11lOlUlt8ble, and the
Safety rank of .2 still seems appropriate,
assuming, of course, thaI FwxIs From Operatlons (FFO) of close to 52.00 (sufficient
to cover the dividend through 2002) can be

$211, ~7, $1.76. (t)I""-

,..,..,

.......

"IIr'' ' .IM .

...
'5. (DJ Next div. mtg ..ftWd-Hor. Go8s ex
.bout Dee. 191h. Appmx. div. pnt. clal:as: ~
.Ian., Apr., .... Iy, Od.. cDlv.IWIY. pIIiln iIViIi (

rtRMd. fac1ullllllBill

& ~

fIOIrI1IIlUIa5

rcestlng

meL

Peter Azcue

III
s.r. IMp.
est..
(H) Esl. Pro FonrIi!I. (q B*n cap IlX.

b*wII ID be ~~

...

is

lIV"iGed .......

October 27, 2000

~.!F)
_pa~koan"'l
..
St"

:i.'r.' ~
and i1t. GJ

d ~

S1ab(1ty
Price Growth ~
Earnl. Prddabllty

bid.

SIBLEORNfY[RRORSOJlOMI~SHEREIN.1llls~i5=~u.n'IlIJn~il.lITIIiI_
.....
rtfJ pIftN. ......
etIB bn\ W IMlI b' ~
II"
'.."
pi1IIIIIl1" *Wic IItJIi::*t serIice paKt.

tIII5n*lIn

1.15
1.1.5
1.15

a. .....,,: ....

".38

'I.TOT. RE'tURII MD
Y'.
'Y'.
'Y'.

1.01

32

2<

12
10

'.,

--

'"
20
18

aMra

23012

- --

1111'1,

P.rctlnt 12.0

t~'"

- --

-.

VAllEIJIE PIll 1lC.


1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199. 199. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
4.'0
3.44
3.66
s.se llO 7.9) 7!J5 a83 10.46 1022 10.74 10.14 ".35 ,m 19.17 ,5.59 15.J5 ,5.1J !odI YaIut
A

F"UNDS FLOW ($miJ.)


Net profit Plus
Noncash charges

Range
200.

2003 200'

11.8

----

.'0

58

....

,"""".

O.lFM"IIJJA
100
0 0 0 0 0 0
o 0 1 0 0 0 000
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional Declatona

.., .....

"".,

2.~

50

rraonD!

i'Ilfl*t

~I"""': ..

30
20
+15%
'"-kter o.clll:lo ...

.......,
"".

24.5
18.1

0i'::J~..
.... l:ed
_'1.:...,

2OO3-Ol PROJE~NS
""",ToW
Priet
GIlD
RI'2um

:':

I=' "".

18.6
13.8

LEGENDS

O.llO-MIlUQ

.6!1

18.8
15.3

Low:

4 _ .. m!II

TECHNICAL
~

_"'''''111
_"1Jl1",

12 FE.RAID 9.9G~~J:~WJ%0.74 ~ 14.2%

",

.... nglh

:11:

95
5
85

11-,

lWllIIESS
SAFm
lECHNICAl
~

Hlg~:I 10.3
10.~I
5 _",,"'"
Low:
9.5
8.9
LEGENDS
1 ,,"ll1l''''
17.0. .. ~ P sII
3_ ..... i:k.r~=-!al9tPrnst.

.liD (1.Qll .. 1Wtd)

!IgtI

1003-05 PROJECTIONS
Ann'TDill
PricI GIIrI
RIUn
45

,..t%,

lDW 35 1+25if

O~-:.~

fM
DOt

..... ..

... IJJASO
0 0 1 1 1 0

17.9
13.9

14.2
11.9

17.9
17.1

17.9
16.8

...........

,,,

27.6
19.9

34 .

25.'

33.'
24.6

33.3
22.0

.-

......... 1
II'"

'"

..
000000000
_..
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
InstilUUonal Decisions
IQMf
,zm_
.. ..,.
293024

*..

::'1~ 11~~

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993


.11
.J>
.86
.99
1.05
.73
fJ7
.69
.66
.30
.38
31
33
.34
.34

.64
II
.30
T.15
7.n
.
5.08
5.24
5.51
'.01
'.56
19.!ll
30.74
31.a
30... <0.88
Z1.94 22.10 25.68 25B7
13.3
1~1
13.3
15.1
13D
.
10.4
14.0
1S.2
13'
g.j
.n
ill
.89
.,
.&4
.95
1.02
1.13
~4%
3.3\
3.5\
1.7\
3.3'
..
52\
1'% 3.0\ 32\
2643.9
1695.7 3192.4 3714.5
CAPrTAl STRUCTVRE as of JI:tQVO
1560.5 15682 1799.0
2136.8
LTDebt S915.7 mill.
OUttln!iYrsN.A.
LT InbIrIS1 $67.0 mI.
101.3
144.1
89.4
12H
LT Debt incL S50 mil. gUiIf1Il'1tBed pId. benefeal
83
7.0
62
'.9
IlMresIs ., sub. deb&.
16.0
11.9
13.6
19.7
p.. .;on lJIbllitJ $.7 mil. in '99 vs. $3.5 mil 1'1
74.9
109.6
69.8
91.7
27.0
42.S
13.0
302
PIli Stod!: None
14.8\
19.6'"
16.'"
B7% 1..,..
1.14'
Common stock 61,100,OOOshs.
76.&
".7 ".5 5U
(Adj. for 5% stk. div'd, pay.lblB 1130101l
198.0
104.7 260.7
315.G
IIIARKET CAP: $1.7 billion (Mid Clop)
7.6'
571i~
58.1"
56.4"
1999
4780.9
13.9% 13'%
132'
12.8
7.9%
8.7"
8.6"
1678.7
3.
37%
3U
<10\
1984
.

,...

"7

.,

..

20.5
17.0

tere~

15%

IMId., Oeclskms
~..,

12.3
9.4

." ."

1m

1995 1996 1997


1.01
121
111
.~ Jill
'.53 9.35 10.01
50.16
~.52 .47.68
11.5
16.8
152
".9
1.15
1.09
1.11
95
~4\ 1.7%
~6% 12\

...

04152..1

4822.' 5366.'

5686.4

1997.9 34793 3756.0


181.1 103.' 2191
5.0
17.0
11.0
'.7
31.7
382
".6 47.1
1172 142.8 lID 154.4
60.7
46.0
51.7
602
27.1% 19.4% 18.6%
1.07'
1.12'
1.0'"
7.4.6 112.1
7D.1
B1.5
458.5
m2
365.9
0428.1
8.9%
'.4%
60.8" '22%
6-1.8"
66.1"
12.1% 13.1\
11.7%
12.6'
7.4'
7.6"
7.1"
8.0'
411
41%
3911
40\

15233

159.04

.n

."

1,.46 U!!
1.6D
1.7D
.53
.60
.65
.11
10.<3
9.91 IdM
11.118
41.44 49.65 51.. OM
19.5
1H ....... ~_
1.01 1.01
~ ~
1.9'
2.1%
e~ --6166.0 6961.9
1J5ll
_
4111B 4780.9
_
6IIJIJ
214.9
238.4
lTtJ
1'5
11.04

11.5

1U

EarnlngsF*'shA
DWellDld'd 1* IIhII
8DOl VIM por '"
COIInICIIl
Shl
'II

A,gAnn'\Pl!RR.
R_
PIEAdo
AV; AnnHJiy'c1 Y"1IkI
T... _,
... )
loon.

,,,,,.1'

JHtlrdns1lnt(~)
111 Loan Lou PrWIl fW)
1. NonintII'Ist 1M: fSrdI)
2
,.. NY! ""''' flmIil
1''''''' lI'IanlTu RaIl

_Up'~

~.6
67.5
100
158.1 185.6
220
71.7
827
If.'
28.2'l' 24.0'
11.OS
1.16'
1.18% f.(I~ un
RnrmonTaIII"'....
..
663.0
lIS
IIJIJ ...... T... DIbI(1mJI)
0494.6
8.0%
66.7"
14.5%
9.4'
35"

.492.7
5SO
7.1%
68.51
7D.,fJ
16.8% 16.5%
tD.6"1. HI
371
411

6.5"

65lI Slu.

2.J5

.as

15.$8

suo

17.1
1.15

1'"
'2101

....

40tI
J5.0
115
2JO

,4/1
1IA

1.1'"
'MIJ
..

1.0% Shr.Eq.IoToWAsMts
71""" LOllISto lcJt AsII'Is
15.5% Rn.un CIII Shr. E

ea.

lft
Rellintd 10
Eq
4111 N1Dir'dlIoNaPnrl'

7..5%
69.11

t5.llI%
J.5I
J6J

Ca~
-.

..1197

1....

1.

2001

.....,
,,....
Col-

'oO
y",

1!l1T

1.12

1.46
1.59

200'

1.111
1.7'

-.

y",

Cal-

I.

,.

1!l1T

'!III

FilII

.46
.50
Sl
.60

(AI Bued on diklted earnngs plr s~


EJl- report due ..
"'nusry. (BI Ned di'tilencl POI sb;k dlmends: 5% ., '87, '88, '89, '92, Comp"""
Flnllllcal ....
elides ix:mle (buJ itwn dIsmI'Jti'IlNd opIR- meeting _bOUf Jan. 25th. Goes ex _bout Feb. '93, '95, '96, '97, '98, 'V9, "00, 'Of. (CI In miStDU's Pricl stabllftJ
lions; '98, ($O.19); '99, $0.09; BXd. unusual 26th. DiviierxI pa)'llllllll. d_s:: _bout lie 15th ions, 1lll)Js'Bd for stock .. pIils.lId dMdends.
PrIc:e Growth P8rs1sb1ne8
gail (etI-.ge~ '00, {SO.042}. Ned ~
at M5a1, June, Ses*mtll!l" and December.
&lmlnp
P ...
o 2l1lO.VallIe LiIe ~
lilt. AI riabs r-..I.laclllllllllltlill
is CJl:jIlinrd InIIII ~
b*lNlg.lltftllilllle
... ispOlil!!ll 'lIItcIUI.~
d WI)' kiIId. _
TliE. PUllUSlRISI)TRE~ll"ORANY
E'RRORSOROIMSSlONSHEREW.
Th5f1'*1lionil; IlrI:IIJb~-._~ftarllIIlI5e.
filo piI1
I
I
I'.
d I~be~
.mQ"~
i1l1lJfIIW*Il.
d/llIl"bm, cr UMIlIkI' ~
cr--"'aTJp1IBI
cr 1IBWic~
senite.~

gIh

A
100
BO
90

: It:

II'

c:teI.,

SIMON PROPERTY GP. NYSE.sPG I~JiNI 22


4 1.lMl1!ll1~1.a
2 ......"'].1

lWWNfSS

High:

Law:

3....,., ... ..... ::-PrUSIImgIl

SAmY
TECHNICAL

LEGENDS

..

Pf
RAm

214(lroiing:1U
\/RElATrIE 1 60 lIIV1l

dllf IIPf RAm.


YlD 9.2%
Ie

28.0
22.S

22 .
22.3

26.0

34.'

31.0
21.1

22.5

27.9

34.'
25.8

30.9
20.4

27.1
21.6

iJdar.Ilfa'ni:ln
H

.70 (1.00. MiltS)

IlJ.

~.ROJE"'!,,~S
Prlet

Gain

,.

1.1.111"

AM'I Tala!
Rdum

..

11'1'

.'

High 55 (";~so%' 31"

Low
Inskler

.+Wii

4Q

22%

Decl5tons
DJFMAMJJA

.........

~...,. 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
~
000000000
.'11
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional
Decisions
tQ1111 1m..
201M P.~nt
'.0
lilly
94
as
104 .har..
'.0
::::'1114~ 10ni; 1027~ t,.lIed :u

.....

"

Simon Property Group, fne. (SPGJ was


formod on Sept 14, 1993. On Dec. 20,
1993, romple1od an IPO of 37.75 million
shares 01 rommon at $22.25a share lor
$767.8 milion ne1 and bontlWod$259 mil-I-......::.-......:+--..:..:--,...;;.-h~~rt~:r-m;-~rl..m+-.~h~~~:d~~,1-~c1
lion.The proceeds were used to acquirea
52.2% inleTesl in Simon Properly Group,
lP., a shop~ng mall owner, developer, and
manager. SPG sold an addilional 5.662 million shares for $118.4 "';iion net on Jan. 14,

1994pursuantto an over-allotment
option.f----"'---'4-...:...---"-.j....:"'-''---'''''O+-'O:'''---'':.:-'--:::::'-t-..:::.:..+--f---F''-''''''-=-''-''=--+--'='''-l

Acquired DeBartoloRealty on 819/96.


CAPITAL
STRUC1\JRE
u of &I3QIDO

Toial Dlbt 59145.4 mil. Due tu 5 y,. $5211.9


TotallntRrest $620.0 mil. (74% d CaP')

FUNDS FLOW (SmiI.)

Netplllfit Plus

Noncashctlarges
Investments

Repllid

::~:s
Not New Dobt

Funded
Dividends OecIanKI

mil.f----"'--="+-.::.-...,,;~k.~'---...A!:~.;;:;...~'!i!'-~~:+~~~~ho~+--~~~~"'--+~~

fil7

119

1199

41'.7

497.5

709.1

..

--

BUSINESS:

Ptopsty

10.91

4.2"

NMF

1.4%

".0"
13.0%

.6

46.1

46.a

945.5

3782.3

2168.1

1m! estD!l irwe*neIIf hst (UPREIT). Via IIJl1sidillry partmnhips,

1~::
350.4

~:~
-409.3

~:~
515.8

is en9ll98d in the own&nhip, dlMtklpment., rTBnaQihenl, _ltg,


lICquisilion and expansion of incarnB-pm:Iuci1g I'!taiI propertiBs.

GI'bUP, Inc. i!Il1l1 LIIlt:re1la parlnlnh'ip

3.91

4.910 1'"

5.11 Rnm an 7oIa:I CIp'

5.5%

7.31

15% RlhmonShr.Equity

'.0%

181
IUS

","hip
on 6I3OIUO. fu of 6130100, owned or hetl an intarBSl iI 253
prnprrieI cootaWling 184 N . .IQ. n. d 9'DSI1i!Jasab50 MlI! i136

sIatas and Europe. About 2,500 ~;

5,840 empkJy8eS.
II. & H. SI'non. CEO: D. Sinon. PntsiSenl:

Inc.: MD. Co-chaIml:n:

FlNAHCW-POSmoN
fZlJ1191
121!1119
=~~A~lythe~~=:=-=:

~~=7~'':io~.:m~...:-~~

SeniorDebtlmil.) $7973.4
Suborllinzd8d Debt (miL)
--

markeUna
--z:,

IN

$8768.9
Simon's
retail
property
business
_.
Sr DebllCap1
Funds
2.3:1
2.7:1 remains healthy. At mid-2000.
the 0;TotalDebUEquily
2.3:1
2.7:1 cupancy rate of its regional mall portfolio
PORTFOUQCONDITION
YearAQo latest was 90%, and management
plans to InMtQesRepaid
in Quarter
Nil
NI crease this ratio to 91.5% by yearend.
loss Rsserw-%IInv8lZS.
Hi
Nil
Malls developed in recent years are wel1Non-EamAss8t5-%IInwsts.
NA
NA.
leased,
and the company has streamllned
LOANS
&REALESrAT'E
(S.)
its lease
execution
process.
enabling
.:;:;. .... .31 J .3Il Sd" 00<.31
tenants to open stores qulcl<er and lifting
1197 5532 5581 5842 7112
occupancy rates. The company believes
1.
7424 7376 12352 12560
Just over a quarter of its malls are top-tier
1.
12687 12699 13137 13258
properties,
a better mix than for many
2000 13366 13289 f3UD fJ5IQ
competitors. Comparable-space
retail sales
z001 1315111_
13J1J1l
1_
per square foot increased 5.2% In the lI"'t
ealEARNINGS
PER
SHARE"
Full
half. to $381, and average base rents were
ndar Mu.31 Jun.30 61,.30 DKJ1 Yur up about 5.7%. The company's Brand len1997 .23
:n .28 .29 01.C18tures marketing initiative. seems to be
1.
.22 .21
.25 .32 01.02 doing well.
1.
.21
.22 .25 .32 1.00 Simon has been busy on the tecbnol_
.21
.24
.11
.31
1.02 oK)' front. Earlier
In 20l10, the company
ZD01 .1l
.ZJ
.zt .34 1.111 created Merchant'Wired
to provide malls
c...
QUARTERLYDIVIIENDSPA!III!III
Full
with broadband
network
access. Simon
endar Mar.31JUft.:SO Sell.31 Dec.31 Yur owns 50% of the venture, which expects to

administrative
p..,-r-n..,.,.""
~
...... ~
that are typical for such start-up ventw'eS.
these tn1Uatlves are expected to reduce
share results in the second half of 2000 by
$0.03-$0.05, and probably will lower eamJngs for the full year 200]
by a similar
amount, with the penalty greatest early in
the year. Even so, Simon remains on track
to log Funds From Operations (FFO) of
about $3.30 in 2000 and, assuming the
retail
sales environment
doesn't
deterlorate signicantJy next year, $3.60 in 2001.
Like other
retail property REIT
issues, Simon's price-to-FFO
mUltiple Is
beJow
Its historical
average.
partly
reflecting
Investor fears of a slowdown In
the retaU store sector. But the company
now appears set to make the most or the
properties
added in acqulsitions
(some
dIlutive) In the past few years, and proceeds from sales. of nonstrategic properties
are providing funds for development aetivity, In addition,
Simon's ~
ven-

~:
::;
:: :: :: ~~~=e3 aInternet
co=/io
1&
.505 .505 .505 .505 Z.02 related

~bo~~t~e

Smon

10.3"
NMF

1999 .505 .505 .505 .505


2000

.505

.505

.505

tA)ADlneICI/.
dop. unb il!b am Hut
egs..l8p'lmid-Nov. Exd. un.. loss: 98. $0.04;
"99, $0.03. (B) Nut diot'dlI'8IlIing abOll'l Jan.
18. Goes u..bDuI Feb. 1. orte! payml.bDuI

~;'.:~
I~t~e~
and e-Qunmerce enter2.02 prlses, and rolled out an enhanced version
of its mall Web site. Due to the upfront

g~~eh~

~~~~~.
If all
Simon shares could provide good total returns to 2003-2005.
Theresa Brophy
October 27, 2000

D1:~CcimlM'mFNlJdIIISf"'_

Q2, S0.71; 03, $0.75; 04, $0.93."00,


$0.71; 02, $0.75. (G) Qt1y EPS donhum dll8
to inc. lIhll. (H) 3- III 5-y8ar price range baed
on FFOWl x ".0.
bdietIN 10.,...,..
.. ill pDlCed III1IlU .....,
II ." UNI.

2DlhdFeb.,Way,Aug.,ND.o._D;"'d,.;mesl
pi. Extra .. 1515/sh. diY'd l1l22I96. IC) In mil
(D) Pro-fonna i'l '93. IE) Incl. pled ~ner's
d. in op. pr1rnhp. (F) FFOIsh.: '99, Q1, SO.67;

Cllalll. ........
~
R. AI,..,
ms'flII. Fllf~ ...
is ~
lima _
TH[ P\I8USH[llIS N31 k.E~lOR
Nft ERRORS OR OMISSIONS H[Rr ... Tlis ~is
III IMJ II! I!IpI:IIbZd.
II" ~
iI ." pited. ~
II" lahB" lam!, CI IIRI:I b geIWI1IiIg

-.a

and

IhIJ

CI" .....

b ~

IIIJ' ...,

-.
II"

_~

inlmlllISI!.

NG.....

S!dlaic fdlbIiaIl, loorI'fim CI p1IlKL

Stilet's rtric, stabIIIIJ


PriceGrowth""~
earnings PRdicWIIIly

'

: II:

8+
95
10
90
I I ,

TOOTSIE ROLL NYSE.TR


1IIWIESS

3 .....""'"

SMETY

1 ....."""
3 ..""411111

TECHNICAL

7.0

low:

4.4

2.mrl!i*

200US PROJECT1O~Ji.

Ann'T ..

....... .. l~l ,."


.,
GaIn

High:

15.7
11.3

17.7
12.5

':e..iltfDIfrs

<""l'.'

leussGn

$%

11111

000 000 000


o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
o 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
InstilutiOMl Declslona

52 "

111

~~I.'~:''':
1III'

,,'

45.1
26.6

D1V~

45.6
28.5

Ta~t Price Range


2003 2004 2005

42.9

27.8

., '"

.. .,

..'

- -- -

38

2.21

2.48

19

.33

.39

1S

.03

.28
.04

.08
12.

1,.19

2.15

.20

2.06
1S

.17

21

.02

.03

1.03

."

.06

.is
'<41

"."

,.9%

.04

.'" 1.16....
S

".

,0>

11.
93
1.1\

13
.58

3.46
.49
.39
.04
Jl6
~11

I,;"

..

..

.....-

.98
.9%

CAPITAL STRUCTURE

16.6
lJ8
.1'4

17.1
1.18
9%

14.4
1.09
.1%

as of 7/1100

Due.5YIWN~
lotll Ql;bt $23.5N
LT Dlbt $7.5 ml.
LT lrrtl:rnI $.45 m'l.
Clpillized INses $7.5 mil.
(2% oIea,'o
lbses., UncaplblliDd None
P.nlJon lJabinty None

PM Stocll None
Common Stoc.k 49,532,189 shs.
Includes 16,099,209 ClasS B shs. (10 votes ill sh.)
(98% of Cap'Q
as ofll11/DO

,1.9

IlARKETCAfI;

,...

CURRENT POSITION

(lIl1.1
ea.........

"..
".3
'2.5
163.9

Receivables
~ntDry (UFO)

40 .

OJmlnlUab.

53.'

ANNUAL RATES

--...
...
So"'"

"Cash Flow"
Ee:mi1gs

14.5%
15.0%

Book V.lue

17.0%
1611%

"

1997

'
1999

2101

.....,
caJ.

1191
1991
'999

lODO
2D01

......
,...
caJ.

'991
11188
'191

26.7
70.2
7.5
194.4

13..

-.

16.0
46.1
76.5

56.'

........

E.t'd 'V7'19

Sf ...
5.0%

,OoM'
125"

'2.5%
14.0%
21.0%

..""

f2.~

13.5"

13.5%

IllIAR1EIlI.Y SAl!S

l1."r .JDtc..P,r
A

1<0.6
'442
152.7
90.' '65.9
1110
17.
.EARIINGS PER SHARf

l,r.Per

00.0

Pm

IIIf.Per JUIl.Plr S,n.

66.3
69.7
7'-2
78.0
IU

159.5

Pal
tillS,
11.0%

d_..lp""J

711100

12..

--

Otho<

tlOll

82.3
86.0
".3

Jun.Ptr Sea.Ptr

....

A II

..

DlcPe

T.,

66.'

B1.6
105.1
117

.l7
.<18
.31
.22
.21
.S>
.31
.24
.29
.58
.26
.43
.32
.64
.4f
.J1
.Ja
711
GROSSlIUAlI:TERLY
DlV"DSPAIl C
Ibr.JI JU .
Doc.JI
.035
.03
.035 .035
.04
.035
.04
.04
.05
.04
.116
.05
.06
.05
.06
.06

lODO

.19

.24

3's.:;;:

.06

.06

.07

'AJ"""'neT':: .....

.07

31.F'"-

Doc 10 end rI month.


quatln.
on S2t. doses!:
IS) Bawl on -.
shares tm:cIgIi 1996,
diklllld.....,..
Nul: eaJ1'IlI1QS repa1 due In!
III llIIO, VIkJ~ Ule ~
All ~
m8ftlI.
ntl PUBUStR

IS hOT R(

ell ny bellptlUed. ......

SIBl.[

FilII

T.,
37S.6
386.7
396.8

UO

"'"

1.1B
1.33
'-'2

1.15

1.8
Full

T..-

.f<
.'6
.1
.23

,.,

12

..
..

.. .. ...

'0

-4.01
.61

.sa

.44
.04
.10
2.50
S,
163
1.21
1943
2'2%
S.1
22.6
392\
11.61
BS3

..

129.6
17.4'
17.4%
,0\

.,

.62

.05

.06

2.iS

14
3.51

199
127
.S%

23.S
1.43
. %

....

U3

.14

S.01
.6S
.68
.01

S.73

6J)'

.99

.99

.73
.06

4.10
S,
22.1
1Jl
.S%

'.64

."

.7B
.'0
.lIB
S2S

18.4

19.1

.so

207.9 20SA 259.6


22.3% 223\
2'.0%
S2
S.1
4B
26.S
32.0
>S.
39.9% 38.3\
38.6%
12.81 13."
13.7%
BO.S 107.2
61.0
.. I.S m
IS2.B 181.7 212.3
17.4% 16.9%
17,.4%
17.6'" 16.7%
15.71 16.0%
15.01Ii
B\
9%
'0%

,04.8,

121

'28

.6%

.7'.'
312.7
2'.0%
10.8
40.'
31.0\
12.9\
109.1
75

2969
2'.6%
131
37.9
3a0%
12.8%
92.6
215
2405
2m
14.3% 14.6'
15.6% 14.8%
13.9% 12.9'
12%
13%

S.sa
1.14
.9'
.12
.19
6.04
17.7
1.11
.B%

7.35
1.44
1.18
.IS
.11
6'7
1.1
19.1
1.10

37S.6
21.'%
1>, 129
411
60.1
31.1% 36.4"
13.8" 16.2'
153.3
153.4
I.S
15
3511
312.9
14..8% 11.0%
15.1'" 17.3%
13.'" 15.2'
13%
12%
3'0.9
26.3%

..

........
....

... TOT. RETtHl1MJD

.".

3".

15.6,"

24.8
35.0
5.2
"'.5

36.5
57

Curntn1 AaMs
Acds Payable
00 .. Duo

caJ.

c.pJ

blffion (Kid

J2
2.
20

1 ".

3.7S

50

1"I.tll""'"

'

1.65
,.sa
1.33
.19
.29
1B1

1.94
1.63

26.6
1.38
.S%
368.1
29.'%
129
615
36.3%
17.4'
175.1
I.S
3865
16.8%
17.0%

26.1
1.49
.6%

14.7'1t

14%

"'"
""'"
23.'
46.0

..

1,.42

.22
.41
B.B2

US
US
US
11
.Jlj

14211
4!-.

144$
llS
I.IS
.21
.21
11.75

"

150.3

--"'"

3869
28.8%
10.0
113
36.0%
18.0%
168.4
I.S
430.6
16.3,

440
3481
34011
111
lU

16.6%

lUll

13.9'
,6%

....
uti

I!'
X01I
17.~
lIS
1.1

'"
'"'"
111%

""

SIIu~thA.
"Cah FIlM'" 1* Ih
EaniIlp per It! A I!I
DlY'dsDld'd ~ Ih C
C",~~g
...
Boat YaIut P-' III D
I
g
AvgAn.nP

GUS
IUS

lIS
1
.J2
.1S
Il7il

.....
-~

.......:...
:lU"
11.2%
121
1.1

'"

300

2001 eVALlEtIlEPIJ8.IIC.

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199. 1995 1996 1997 1'1.78

'"
'"
'"

-- -- --- - --

..

5h.,... '.G
I.'

9675

0.7%

YlD

4.5

p_n;:-.nt

67

44

"

DJFM"'MJJA

'3

)IFTrI'
E 1 58
P RATIO
29.9
'6.5

17.9
15.0

Rftm'l

+15%

"2

16.9
13.1

lIJ

2-far-l

lnaider DKislDna

:::'1

16.7
11.8

.4
6.8

2
(1'*4
I"';,,:5.1

,..,.

.:::.., .... ,,,. "'..... .....


45

I ,...

9.~
5.8

P!

LEGENDS
15.0I [lltI n.Op ~
. .. R~
PI"Q Shrlgll
2 ... -1 ~
5111
2.for1 si* 7"5

IETA .lD O.DD_lIbIUO

Prke

39 RATIO229

CEHT
PRIC

IF

1m

tJI)

ZIlII
US

R_PlERdo

.n

...

Ayg Ann' Div'd Yield

_I\niIIlA

100wsin0._
IncorM Ta RIll

~K
W
115
31.011

NotPlo........

19.2%

~-'''I
NotPloIltI~

W_I CIp'(ln1l)
..... 7.... _~1
g".

EquIIv

'lnilli

Rn.m on Total Cap'


lS.1% RQlm an stv. Equity
'S.1% R.-..cIIo Cen Eq
11% AI DWdllo NIl: PrGf

".
7.1
13S

111%
1S.1%

111%
'2%

BUS"ESS: Tomill RoIIlndllSln8t, Int. pt)dlltllS candy. Produds


i1cUIe: 100rs.w ReI, Toarsir Pop, TOOlS. 8cJbbI9 PDp, TOOCSis
Pop Drops, and MIsan DaIs. Aajuied 1Rd!". ConiK:tbns" AndeS
c.des. 5:10; W.mw-Lambert's bn.brands
(JriJr""" Suga< "Sugar ......
CIOOosIon
and
Pam PomsJ, 1(W3; Charms Co. (e:.twrm, Bbw Pops~ 9f88; Ce/B'.

Confedions, 7/85. FIVe plll.nts in U.S.; one iI Mexil:D. 1nt1 ops.


(Mexico and Canada): 8% d '99 uIBs. Has about 1,750 empkly885. M.J. and E.R Gcrlion conioI 70% d VfAing poww; LR
Weiner, 12% (3.00 PI'tIX)'). Ch8fmIn & CEO: M.J. GooIoo. Pres. &
COO: E.R Genion. 111:.: VA. Adm".: 7401 S. CDlro Ave., Chago,
IL 60629. Tel.: 71J.!3S-3400. Imwnet: www.tDctIi8.am

Tootsle Roll. Induotrles recorded another sweet quarter with a 10% increase in earnings versus the same
last
year. Sales from prealloween promotions and the additional
sales from the company's recent acquisftimlS helped 1R achieve these results. AI
though sales and earnings came In sUghtly
under our previous estimate. it is likely
that TR can post a soUd fourth quarter.
With higher sales and tmprovlng margins
due, in part, from lhe company's tnvestments in enterprise resource planning
software, we project the company will UkeIy record orar-end
share net or S 1.65. an
Increase
over 10%year over year.
We estimate the Ande9 Candies and
the O'tee acquisition increased third.quarter revenues by about $6 million.
and should help TR achieve 11% 1"eVenue growth in 2000. The cost of the ocquisi dons was roughly $75 milllon, whim
was paid from exist..1ng cash and shortterm borrowing. Tootsle stiD has $ 16 mllDon remaining from the $22.7 mlillon line
of credit drawn on for the purchases. Although
this is a substantial increase in
short-term debt (il previously had none).

we expe<:t TR to repay the loan In full by


the end of the year. We are encouraged
that the company Is flnally using Its resources, most notably its stockpUe of cash.
Cash assets are now lower than nanna!,
but cash flow stUl exceeds the company's
current operating needs. Although TR's
conservative management
limit the
amount of additional acquisitions made in
the near term. we would still like to see
better use of its cash, consisting of more
than $1.80 per share.
Thotsle stock Is IO'J(, off Its most
recent highs. We feel that the Issue got
ahead of Itself on a ~ce-to-earnlngs basis,
and that it is now
Iy priced at Its current quotation. The company has a strong
balance sheet, as exempUfted by Its A+ FInandal Strength
rating. But we project
only minimal appredation potential for
the pull to 2003-2005. 1ll1s stock does.
however, offer'a 3% annual stock. dividend,
and the company has consistently bought
back more shares than It has Issued. combating the dUut!on factor and elfectl"ely
increasing the percentage ownership for
CUJ'TE'nt
sharehoJders .
Jeffrey B. Levit
Nuvernber 10. 2000

chocolllBlca_'.

a-.

ffariod

wm

~lrd.'d".__ 'I"'~"'.21";~
'

Jon. Nul: diYi:lend Il'lll8ting about Dee.. 211l 1966. {D) InclUdes intBnllllllls.
(C)
In "99: $872
Held lIJl ddl about .Ian. 2nd. DwD!1xb pai:I miIicfI, $1.7&showe.
fE) I1'dMs. adju5led
aboul the 9lh of Jan., A~.,July, and Oct. 3% lei' SIDd. spIb end stocIl: dNiiends.
FKllIII IIIIlIDI iI; 01:1 __
m 11iUta ~
10 be f8iItR l1'li iI; JR'fil1llll M!IIIuI ~
d ~
kil ..
0It Nf'( ERRORS OR OIISSlClNS H(IIEII. l1Iis pubIi:aian it sRIJ' lor ~
_.
flClIl<UiA.dII. ~
lI5e.. II ~
.. ." P'*'1 ___
.1IlIIJ IDm\ .II5ed .. ~
q ~..,,....
II" ~~
SII'IIIZ. ptIlb:l

Stlxk .. rteeS1ablItly
Pra Gmllth p.,.......
E.mlllQS Prmlctl.bIIty
I

, '.

95
60
90
: II:

I I

WEIS MARKETS NYSE.WIlK


_"11"'"

lII[UNESS

wm
lECHNICAl

..,...,

DJf

....

..,ot28 "'ot "'"


3O
" 282.
171~ 17187 17081

:':~,

,,,1,,"
'.

..

.,

,.11.

.. .'. ..

"."

"'.

..h.~.
... ,.
~

....

Ca:-~!u

4'1.1

Inventory
01h ..

158.9

608.2
74.6

".1

ANNUAl

RATES

~""'(pol"J

1li:'f

"Cash F1ow'"

Book Value

....,
,.
Co!-

1191

1199
2000

5.5%
3.0%
.5%
7.0,,"

Co!-

.nd.r
1191
1199

2000
2101
Co!-

""'"
1QH

,.
1191

1191
lDOO

11.6

10.5

602.6

597.1

82.7
3~1
'20 8

87.1
47.3

---:rrv;

.......

4.s%

S.DS

20%
7.0%
5.0%

8.s,.

6.0"
35"
4.5"

Q\JARTERLY SAlfS l-IIII.lA


IIlI',P,r JUrI.Per S.p.
Dtc:P.
456.8 "T.O
.... T 470.3
454.1 457.8 ~3
91.9
498.3 .90.0
~92.3 526.3
519.8 509.0 485.9
580.3
5Z5
5511
5Z5
Il2S
EARHlJjG5PERSHARE"
Mar.Plr Jun.Per SIP.Per DKP.
.43
.56
.46
.40
.52
.51
.46
.46
.43
.54
. 9
.46
.!II
AT
.49
.49

,. ... ...

2G01

167.1

Past Esfd'l7-'n
Sfn.
S.5~
7.0%

Put

tn....

Soles

22.1
156.8

34.7

Payable

4085

3891

"'8

Cunent Liab.

... ...

QUARTERLY OIVllENOS PAIl

Co

lIar.31 Jun,30 S.D.30 Dtc.31


.23
.21
.21
.23
.2
13
.23
.24
.24
.24
.25
.25
.25
.25
.26
.26
.26
.26
.ZT

FilII

Y1818.8
1887.5
2004.9
2fl!

2125
FilII

Ya,
1.90
1.80
1.67

U2
2CIf1
Full

Y.88
.!H
.98
1.02

610.1
142%
"11
9.8"
31%

.11..........

...

'

,.,'

11

',"

. ......... ..

CI 2U'G. .....
~ ~
TIiEPUBUSl-ERISNlT

-.

..

......

..

647.4 680.3
12.4% 10.5%
12..41 ".51
6.1"
351
~2%

.....

1996
-41.70

513.2

..

..

738.1
9.9%
9.91
51%
~2%

162.~
791.6
10.0" 10.0%
10.01 10.0"
5.7%
5.8"
~2% 43%

818.5
9.6"

B47.3
9.4%
9A\
4.8"

IDO

2J3
1.66
.TO
16.85
43.80
16.1

.. ..

2.6\

1441.1
25.5\
75\
141
13.'
35.8\
5.1"

..

~.'"'
..

..

1997 1998
43.54 ".n
2.78
295
2.91
1.90
1..87
1.80
.118
.M
.91
19.47 20.28
21.'13
~2
~ .n 41.76
16.6
16.7
19.8
1.04
.96
1.03
28\
3.0\
2.8\

5.1"
~11

15"

2000

48.09
2..

'"

1.&7
1.02
22.03
41.69
1U
1.13
2J\

1.12
1.06
n.t!
4f.5O

... -.~.

""
,~.
,~.40.7

35.5"
3.9\

890.6
8.5"
8.5"
3.9%
54%

918.5
85%

14.8

30.'

104.8

2001
"VALUElJIEPlJ8.1IC. 03-45
5126 ~I*IhA
f15II
U5 c... Aow"pw Ih
2" &rnIDp pw sh
2"
1.1D Dlv'ds DKI'd ,.. Ih Co
126
2115 Book VaIuI JIll' sh D
21.15
41.50 Canwon Shs 011111'11
"JJ/1
Avg Anll' IE RItio
1~'
R-.uv. PIER.do
T."
AYg Anlll DiY'd Yilld
10%
2125 ~Jf$BIIJ A
26IIIJ
211% Gralllqln
21.0%
1.0% 0JlOlrinllI,.g;n
1.5\
115 N!Illt- rJf Skns F
1t!
Q.5 H"",",,~
1115
Incorll To RD
36.DlI
11\ Nil. Prolt IIIr1Itn
05 WonInQ Cop'1(!mill
m
MI l>agT"" 001< (1nII)
Hi

....

-~

"":'.:: ....
.;0;

....

n.8

37.4"
4.0"
"".5

..

~'"'

481.8

..

:11.0%
3.'"
.15
Nil
1555

'.5%
1.5%
151
561

8.5"

3.8"
551

:II'"

"""
""
""

.,. "',.E,,,,",,,,,,,I

15% RIIum on Tuill CIP'I


RIIum 01'1 Shr. Eauitv
151 Rlilined ta Com Eq
55ll AI DiY'd11o JHt Prof

g..,.

I.Jll

~D%
UI

sin (It yeanllld) pet supply chain will mres in OH (8), fA (7),
SC (6), TN (5), At (2), Mt (2), 1 ea. in GA, IN, KY, & MD. ?i
depnK:. rR: 52%. Has aboUt 7,075 shrhldrt., 20,100 ernps. RF.
Weis awns about 30.6% of met (3/00 ~).
Chailman: RobEf1 F.
W. PI'llS.: Hennan S. Rittl. Inc.: PA. Addr.: 1000 South Second
Sh8t, Sunluy, PA 17801. TlllephQl1l!l:
570-2116-4571.

Weis Markets'
top
line is being
operator is using these funds to remlXlel or
replace older outlets. WIth about $400 mil~
down by the sale of a periphe
business. In AprlJ, the company sold lion In cash~valents,
these investIts food-servIceoperations, which had gen- ments put
strain on WMK's balerated about $120 million In annual sales. ance sheet.
Meanwhile. the company's supennarket
The current
share frice probably
chaIn, its core business, is growing at a reflects some degree 0 takeover specdecent m1d-slng\e.dlglt clip, thanks to an ulatlon. The stock's PIE ratio is at the
aggressive stare-development rrogram (see high end of those among the supermarket
below). The penormance 0 established
equities we follow, a valuation that apstores, though. has been rather lackluster . pears rather generous, given the sluggish
Indeed. the increase in same-store sales eacnlngs trend evident In recent years.
recorded In the September quarter (0.2%) However, Wets is one of the few remaining
was the company's weakest In over two publicly traded regional chaIns and would
years.
likely prove an attractive addition for one
EanJ.ings will likely continue
to ad- of the nation's larger supennarket operavance at an uninspiring
cUp. In addi- tors. The company appears intent on going
<Ion to tho sluggish sales trends, profit It alone In the near tenn, though this
growth Is being curtailed by rising labor stance has created frictIon with a sizable
and dlstrlbuUon costs. Notably, this year's shareholder group. Absent a takeover, this
December quarter will benefit from having stock would Ukely appeal prtmarl\y to
income-oriented investors. 1be equity is
one more week than the prtor-yea:J:rtod.
Weis is spending heavily to m
endze
ranked to underperfonn the market in the
its store base. We expect. the company to year ahead and offers very modest 3- to 5invest about $75 mtlllon on capital prqJects year appreciation potential, but it does
this year. In addJtlon to gradually expandpossess a decent dIvidend and garners
ing its presence along the outskirts of Its high mar1<sfor price slability.
current operating area, the supermarket
Robert M Greene. CFA November 10. 2000

....

'F""...'. ...... ...-.


l~

M ~..-wtd.
r-ul /UIIIiiI i! d1.md '- _
tIIiIMIllD bI' I6I:R .. b pwilesf -.ilIJIIuI
SIIU ORANY~RORiQRCMSSIOIlSHEREIII.Thii~i!R'Etyb"~S_,_-ann.ciII.ilUrmllISe.
JO*lI. ~
u cdW bI!I, u ... b ~
u ......
." pi'ed u ~pItlbIiuI.

ill..,

1999

........

'I. TOT. RtT1JRII 1DIDQ

1867.5 2004.9 :1015


21.7" 27.7" 21.1\
65\
1.0%
6.6"
158
163
11'

17532 1818.8
28.0\ 27.8%
U\
7.5"
155
154
16.9
19.6
34.7\ 34.1\
~5\
4.4%
4631
471.5

9.61

32

12

..

.. . ....

-.,.

1995
199.
35.80 38.Tl
265
2"
1.751...
.7~
.80
17.53 18.61
4253
43."
,.5
14.6
.!Ie
29\
3.0\
1556.7 1646."
27.3\ 21.7%
IJ\
7.1"
149
151
16.2
TH
34.9% 34.8\
U\
5065 4811

1993

40

,.

(Aj Focol
on .......
_doeabout ...
(01'CllITIbBr.
(B Based on~.
shcns outslandilg (eJ NaI div"d Inll8tiJg
Jan. 26th. Goes ta~.
In 119: $162 niL, 39Ishlllle.
through '96, dlktlltd tIIerea1'&. Excludes nIr ex ebout Feb. 61h. Div'd pi!lpnent dates: ilboUI.
In mili:lns, 1Id)Jsled for aldl: spfll
galls (w): '92, 2; 117, (3j);"98, 20; "00,112. the 25th rJI Feb., May, Aug., .00 Nov. II Qi't'd
IndudBs grocay starn only.
d lllllJ bI: IIptIdIad. *-I ~

....

-- -- -- - -

2'
20

BUSINESS: Weis ..... ets, lnc.. opera_ 163 mtal food II'IlI1tsb (81
year encl '99), R:kIcIing baIt1 SIIpecstores end COIMlmiDnai s1DreS,
kJc:a1edin PA (133l1:cnsl, "0(21), NJ (3), NY (3), VA (2),.1Id WV
(1). Owns mxrt 48% of des. sels II2fllqOO
rr&1:tlIndise pkls
2,000 it8ms under its DWIIlradEmIrIr.s. Nfl) owns & op8IDls Weil
Food SII(Y. & S/Iannd WhoIesaIlI Didrib.; DWII. SuperPlIIz, 34-

""'.,.! I~""__

r:'''''

Targn PriceRiln~
2003 2004 2005

45.3
32..

".3
32.'

1.'

Cammon Stock 41,691,407 1!Is.. (100"" dCap'l)


MARKETCAP: $t.5 billion (Mid cap)
612_
CURRENT POSrnON
119.

38.9
33.3

P_rcellt 1.5

PldStoclr.None

CUIT8nt. Assets

36.3

..

..

(LIFO)

34.'
27.8

.....
." ....

' ,

20.70

Receivables

29.'
24.0

80

1988
1989
1990 1991 1992
1985
1986
1987
29.41
26.18 27.35 28.43 291T
22.OS 23.26
24.n
239
238
U4
2.25
1.64
1.73
204
151
2"
,.30
1.91
1.82
1.93
1.81
l.63
1.66
1.19
'-'2
.50
.56
.80
.64
.68
.32
.43
.36
.28
11.23 12Q
13.154 14.154 15.52
6]9 7.93
~8O
9<7
46.13 U.36
45.56 45.4
461T
".3
".73 ..22 43.83
16.5
15.0
15.8
16.5
16.~
15.1
11.3
'91
'23
1.37
1.25
1.11
113
f.OS
.96
1.15
1.11
118
21\
26\
ln
1.6\
1.8"
21\
1.5"
'-'\ 1.1\
1271.B 1294.3 '2891
CAP"AL STRUCTURE as Df 6'2.uoo
25.8\ 25.6\ 25.4\
Tabl Debt None
9A\ 8.7% Tn
118
118
126
68.6
10.6
71.7
Laues, UllcapltalizeciAnnual nmtals $25.1 mig.
34.~\ 35.1% 35.0\
6.2'4 5.6%
6.8"
PQnslon U.b1Uty None
431.7
~ 483.6
1984

28.0
23.9

3.1%

100

J J A
1 0 0

000
000
000000000
D 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 0
InstiCutlol1ll' DKlslons
..,

'.

."
M

29.'
24.0

DIY'
YlDD

lodi.dlO

~~RblPs~

3"

23.'

llJ)IF1IiE
PE RAID. 127
,...

4(Tl1iIni

11.0I II.WI rmDp th

AM' Total
RitUn

45
(+~5~1
35
-5%
Insider DKiIIiDns

27.9

Pf

. .. RdIlift Pm 5nngll
3.1ar-2 ~
S/81

2003-45 PROJECllONS
Gain

34.3
24.8

34.'
2 .3

36 RAID 18

LEGENDS

IITA .ill (l.DO .. MiIUI)

.....

37.5
20.1

High:
Low:

5
1 ...,.1IJO
4_ .._

I~~CEHI
PRICE

~~StDck's

..-dIllies rI ~ UJd.
pm
~
u~

rIc. stlblity
Price Gruwtb PersSlltnce
E.mlnp P..-etabIItty
I

".

.
:

II:

100
20
95
II.

WEST PHARM. NYSEWST


5 .....edl2/311!B

1IIDJ1IESS
SAfm

3.,.,.".

TECHNll'.\l

4 .....

low:

LEGENDS
15 I CCa5ll n_op

....

11"'1Il

..S...,

(i-~l
-15% 13"
Nil

.,,.35

:::'1

,,,

33

29

.,,,
2ll

'I,,
~,I'1I11'1 ," ... ..

.tI.....
".

LTDtbtS192.0mill.
LT 1m.1"IIt $8.5 mill
IttIlreIit earned: 4.&; total intfIn!St
CD'l'8I1Ige: 4.31)
(47%of ca~'1

LUNS, lbcapiblJJzedAnnualJ8ntlI!l.
P(tftsion liability None

$7.6 nill.

Pfd Sfod: Nolle


Common !toc:1l14,318, 136 shBres (53% af ClIp1)
MARKET CAP: S3Z5 million (Sma" Cap)
,191 II3OIDO
CURRENT POSR'DN
'198

"""" ........

....

Current Uab.
ANNUAL RATES

~""'(po"1
s....

.........

"Cash F\ow"

DMcI8OO5

~ook Value

... .3
l4.6
,2.'
2.2.7

'3.'
20.5
20.8
36.1

""i"Oa
Pal
llYII.

.5"

5.
7.0%
7.5%
7.5"
4.5 ..

41.8
67.8
41.6
31.9

... .1

1!9.7
.,.3

182.9

25.7
5

25.'

29."

~104.0
Put

........

Est'd'l7."11

n...
6.5"
9.5%
9.5%

~5~

ao"

-1.5"
3.2l<
1""

7.5"

55..

......

QUARTERLYIA1!S ~ .a) A
M.,.P" Jun.PI' StlLl , DecJ1
1991 114.7 123.1 105.2 109.5
1191 105.2 115.8 11J.9 114.8
1199 114.2 124.4 115.1 115.4
95.1
lOGO
107.1 112.7 104.5
21101 11.1
IS.D IU '86

Full

y452.5
449.1
469.1

420
Ill

EARlMGS PER SHARE A.


Fo'
"r.Per Jon.Per Sop.P., Doc.31 Yu,
1197
.51
.61
.48
2.21
.6'
1191
.52
.58
.53
.65
227
1199
.58
242
.63
.69
.52
.35
.35
.32
..II
1.38
.3/)
lOO1
JI
JI
J2
lJ1l
QUARTERLT DNIlBIlS PAIl"
Full
CoJ.

CoI.1Id.,

,.

1191
1891

1199

/:1

roo,

1Ior31 J"'.31 Sop.3/) DI031


.13
.14
.13
.13
.14
.15
.14
.14
.15
.15
.15
.16
.16
.17
.16
.16
.Ie
.IT
.IT

_.nd

.II.

. ..

o ZUllI. Vilbe Lme ~


THEPUElUStRISNOHt
*"II

d. ~ t. ~

..........

..... "

Ir- - - -

1990
1991
1992
1993
20.06 21.18 21.48 21.91
2.JIj
2.80
1.14
2.75
:I7
.82
1.26
U2
.40
.40
.40
.41
,.2
214
1.64
2.11
11.37
9J1 10.71 11.62
15.:0 lO.I1
5.
18.&
10.6
16~
1.01
.97
1.20
1.71;
2.5% 16\
1.9'4
348-7
3231
329.6 3381
13.6% 16.0% 18.7% 18."
22.7
24.5
239
22.0
19.1
4J
12.8
22~
66.5%
41.1% 36.1\
1J\
3.9'4
5.a%
6.5\
36.5
26.5 "37..8
46.4
66.2
49.1
31.5
24.6
1762
152.7
168.6
188.1
2.9\
1.2% 10.7' 11.1'4
2.4\
8.4% 11.7% 12.0\
4.3%
8.0%
81%
.IF 49'4 32\
31\

,,.,

~=;

,,.\

..-

.53
.51

.61
.65

pn-. ...

..
.. ... . .

...
.".m
..,.
.". ""'" .". ..,.
.. Tat RET1ItIII 1MID

1996
1ftB
1994
1995
22.18 24.84 28.00
21.31
3.06
3~1
3.79
4.13
1.70
1.73
2.21
'.91
.45
.49
.57
.13
1..
1...
2.llll
'.65
1381
1519
1:5.38
16.76
1 .5
10... 10."
14.6
15.6
132
1'.5
.96
1.04
.78
.83
1.8\
1.8\
2.1\
1.9'4
365.1 4129
191\
18.9\
23.1
29.6
27J
23.7
319\
32.7'>
7.5\
1.9'4
51).4
86.6
35.0 104.5
221.3 254.1
10.8%
8B\
12.0\
11..3%
8.1"
8"
26\
28\

458.8 452.5
18.3% 20.7\
30.7
31.9
31.4
36.5
36.6\ 36.9\
6B\ 8.1\
112.7
91.1
81.4
95.5
2S2.0 271.7
10.01 10.8%
12.5\
13.1\
9.0%

9.8%

28\

26\

Services is planrestructuring. aimed at


boosting retun1S and the weak share price .
.Beset by slack business conditions. the
company is p~
to layoff
approxirnately 4% of its
oba! workforce while
shuttering
thne or Its manufacturing
plants by July or next year. Separately.
the com~
has also announced the
hiring or U
Warburg to heL explore 00ditional strategic Initiatives.
ed speciflcally at enhancing
shareholder
value,
these possible initiatives
include, but
aren't limited to, further asset sales, business ~ershlps,
and even an outright
sale 0 the company.
Eanlings p ...... pects renusln bleak. Indeed, we expect fourth-quarter
share net
to decllne roughly 50%, on 18% lower revenues. largely reflecting a lower-margin
product mix. higher borrowing costs and
pnxluetion-related
Inetndendes.
Meanwhile. we've also lowered: our 3- to 5-year
earnings call. based primartly on lower
revenue assumptions
at the company's
core packaglng-eomponents
and contractmanufacturing
units.
Sales
by
the
packaginB-eomponents unit have declJned
ning a major

am.

32

18
12

BUSINESS: west PhannBceutical


SII!IrVic:2s,Inc. manufadures
InIdIJ:ls (n:Uding lIiopf.Jers, ITll!JlaI -.Is, tkopper bUlbs, *) for
the pharmaceutical indUstry. AbD tuppies caps III1d e:ttIJt8i1eq b
.... amlPlll" produc:b industry, and ~
(X)fIhct pilIctagng
IfI:l manufacbnlg
......
Aequ. Paco Phann. S\ICS" 4095. For
ei;rn MIes: 37" rl "99 bat, RID: Z7%. Has.bOUt 4,&)0 ~Io)'-

AI ~
SEl
OR",,"ERAORSOROIMSSlONSHER".T1li5~issn:.,b~"".IID11
III"_
_lIMO b IlJ8IIiIg

"",.

..

..

34.1

4j: e7.llllj~ .... (llj); ~1. (S,.~


"93.llj;
1J6, (9Oj~ '9 ,47.; lIB. ($1.81);
,$.05.
Nex1.-n1'lgs
report due~.
(C) Nul
di.1IlII8tiIg .bout Dee. 14.
lEIl.chvid
... d
r-..I. rlilYll!'llllllill
il. llIUIIed Inn _
~
ID be

ill.,

- -- - --

~
1111"

...'0"'_1'""'"
,.,....
3".

Sund.,_
0_"

CI" ~

,.,

20

1""ho
the qUildllr's Bst daly. 4th qtr. ends DlIc. 31.
(8) DiIlrt8d
B8S8d on ng. shs.
thn:Ngh '96.
L nome. gaN/{Iosses): '88.

T,r;

....,

--21! West PhannaceuticaJ


78.1

CA'

.....

T.~t Price Range


2003 200. 2005

. 5
3.'

(l T

lJo.. Due
Othe'

3.1%

31.9
HI.6

"A
30.'

.... ,.

Pen:-nt

Total Debt S192.5 mi. Due In 5 YIS $61.Smil.

Curren1 AssIlIts

27.0

35.7
25.8

'"

Receivables
~ntory (UFO)

22.1

..

...

31.3

..

1989
1988
1985
1986
1987
11.99 14.60 15.52 17.53 19.15
2.17
2.55
1.52
1.70
1.93
229
1,13
118
JI
1.02
'.01
Jl
.29
.21
.23
25
:I7
,.2
till
<.13
125
206
'.26
8.60
0.61 10.53 11.15
6.68
7.64
1 .1
1>.",
15." 10.14 """
,4.4
14~
18~ 12.8
124
lu
1.06
1.10
1.22
1.15
.99
98
1.1,
1.7%
2.Dl\
2.9'4
1.9%
co\PrrAL STRUCTURE .. ofll3CMlO

ea",ill""
.......

30.'

35.1

80

hdatrJ rl!a!SJDT

1984

".50

30.
22..

21.3

'" ,..

- .... .....-.. .
25

29.'

25.3
19.9

IIMJ
YlD

80
50

Return

Insider Declaiana
Jf.A.J.I,,1
000
0 0 0 0 0 1
00000
a 00 0
001100000
Inaututiarw.1 Decisions

..,

1M

Am, TDtIl

GaIn

35
20

11.1

19 5(TrOIn
~ .. .,: f4.4)!FTM
ISJ PE RATKl 136

5tJ

'R~I>rt:c~gIh

ZOO"", PROJEC1p1i~.
Price

24.1

PI'
RATKl

2oM16IIl1

!05 (1.00. Maft.eO

IfTA

,.~

2<1.0
10.5

22..
14.9

High:

I~ 23

_~

29.93
4.64
2.Z1
.61
2.7,
15.31

1999
2000
2001
31.99 29.J$
1411
4.91
115
W
2.42
U.
UJ
.65
.74
3.15
U
15.77
I~
'5M

..

12.2%

26\

'8. A","", .

.., .....

III".-nic:

YALIILlEPIJB lie. OUS

EIr1'MgI PI' Ih A,II


Dtv'd. DKl'd pII' Ih
CIp,6pondnO"
8lXlt;YlMpwlll

jU5
411
118
U5
11."

g<

I~"

AV; Amn flit Ado


R_PIERJIo
AYg Ann' Dlv'd Y"1IlId

4/ID _IInIIlA
2ll.osl __

31.5

.l9.8~~.1
17.1 NIt ProM
u.n 3I.OS IncanI Tulbll
\ NIt ""' .. _.
0%
55.8 WtInf Cop' I$nriI)
"'e
I.
lDng.TMlIIlobI
(WI)
210
210 Sh':_11nlIi
.OS
5.lll Rn.m"'T
.... Cop1
15% 1.5% RAImon &h,. Ell.
U%
.1.1% R...... k>ConEq
53%
I2S AI DiY'dl1o N.t. Prof
18~

.....

,..

15.JlJII
112%

26\

'"

7>.8
.15
1.~
5DD
11.OS
ae

34.

l8.OS
U\
a8

..

245
15\
12.8%
7.1%

ees; 1,900 str.thkh . .I.R W.... II CNmS 10.7% CIf aJrI'mln; other
offt. & dn., 3,2"; Friilnki1 Res., 10.0"; Lazard FIa'es. 8.7%; .I.W.
FlIlIS1,. 8.3", W.S. West, 6.2"; Trmn
FmllCiitl, 5.3%; FISt
union, 5.2'1. (3,00 PIoxy). Ctnm. and CEO: W...-n G. utili. Inc.:
PA. M~.: 101 GmIon OrMl, P.O. Bar: 645. L.ixrriIa. Pol. 19341.
T. : 810-694-2900.
IniIr'n8I:: www . nlpl."a.mrT\.

5% so Car this year and should remain


weak as maJOI'"customers work down inventories. Contract manufacturing,
meanwhUe. reports that consolidation within
the pharmaceutical
industry continues to
hurt business volume and that efforts to
coiwert new customer contacts into orders
have so far been unsuccessful.
West
should. haweYer.
beneftt
Incrementally
_
a licensing
deal
with IlUlOvative Drug Delivery SystenlS. The deal gnmts IDDS exclusive
rights to West's transmucal drug delivery
teclU1ology for morphine.
License and
milestone payments cnuld total up to $30
mI!lloo through 2004.
These
untimely
shares
are off 45%
_
their June
1999 highs. and we
don't look for them to attain that level
again for some t:lJne. We recommend that
Investors look elsewhere
until clearer
signs of a turnaround emerge. Most notab
ly. we would wait for an improvement in
overall
effidency
and
indications
of
renewed market demand for West's product and services 10 the fonn of stronger
revenue comparisons .
Nils WmLiew
December S. 2000

5, Nov. 5. (D) Ind.


$8.1w...(E)
In
....
-..,.
Ii 1'20 UTd.

N=cill.iIIIIrnIIl/Se.
Mnia!

........

19.5%

11.1%

Ii....N""'" _"
das: Feb. 5, May 5. Aug.
I1tang.ln '99: $119.3".
mb
.. IJdjus&d for stock
niItR MIl is pRIWDed' .....

-..:
.... ~

1. 6
.84
1.8\
469.1
21.8\
35.7
36.3
36.3\
7.711.
8D.7
141.S
2312

14.8

30.0

IOU

-...

1.

132
.69
2.9'4
449.1
21.6\
32.3
37 .
37.S"
8J\
55.5
105.0
230.1
12.2%
16J\

-29.6

:~

pM
III" pm.r:1.

SDcIl"
rice StablHIJ
Pricli Growth ~
Eamingll PrMlicQbllty
I

I',

95
35
90
:

II:

II'.

DIAGNOSTIC PRODUCTS HYSE.DPI~cr 45


lIIIlJIIESS

-.

3 Ne-ln1191
TECHNICAL
1 """ ""1l!IJ
HI (Ulo.

. '"

RI!IIM ~

2~.'~"9
~

2ODH5 PROJECT1ON~_
Arm' TQf:II

-..

,
10
l~"~l
'~
:% 50
+10%
'"
. '," ' .
Insider Decisions
.,

.......
....
==-

"

tlO'SSiln

"

II

ms
29

..

....

111111\
'"

2:1
098'

(100%dClp1)

...'.

e..
".......
ReceiYi!lbles

C.pl

1993
8.16
1.41

1.0<
.40
.2
9.42
1J.liO

21.1
125
1.8%
1116.8
2O.9~
42
142

1.'"

o... ouo

'~B

......1l:Q

.5

3.5

127.1

132.4

1~3
21.2

15B

Other
Cull'Ctnt UIIb.

60.2
3.3
'44.3
20.'

3.'

46.1

013.'

ANNUAl RATES

Pal

d ..... /pI7"'j

1JYI'I.
13.5%
8.5%
4.0%

n",

DiYi:tendl

lB.o%

5.0%

........,

11.5%

8.5%

_V_

Sa ...
''C1ISh FJaw"

Earn"""

Put

11.0%
10.5%
4.0%

QIJARIBllT So\lS ~
IIIlr.31 J..n.JO SIDJD

14.1

43.7

.......

Est'd'l7'.
12..5~

11.5"
13.5"
'.Sll
.Sll

IIill
Dic.31

46.8
46.4
48.7
44.4
46.1
49.2
48.6
52.5
50.5
53.7 57.4
54.'
59.2
63.6 SO.6 6U
21101
7lU 19.1I
70.1
fU
~SPERSHAREA
.rldlr 1 .. ~1 JUB"
Sop.3ll Doc.31
.35
1197
.34
:Sf
.26
.37
1898
.30
.39
.40
.40
1!1!1
.30
.35
.44
.46
.50
.45
.54
20111
.sB
.5.S
.sB
.5.S
QUARTERLY DN'IIENDS PAIl.
1 .. ~1 Jun.30 Sep.30 Doc.31
.12
.12
1996
.12
.12
. 12
.12
.12
.12
'997
.12
.12
.12
1198
.12
.12
.12
11199
.12
.12
.12
2000
.12
.12
.'2
1197
1898
1ll9S

....

........,

..

29.0'/,

13~~

"-,.. "n
--

87.0
19.8,.
19,\%

18.11
18.1~

119.5
14.5"
14.5\

123.3
11.5%
11."

16.5'

14.4'

11.1%

7.2%

106.9

2O~

23~

3'"
12.04 BUSINESS: Diagnosfl: Produds

14.5
55.0
59.4

'8.1
50.'
54.'

lnvontDry (FIFO)
Otho'
CunnlAssets
Acds Payate

....

torn"',

(AI.........
'995,I8te,,"""
th8tftaftllr.
Hart e.wrmgt.s'''9"
,.port dUB
JBtI/JBl'f.

"

Fall
Y-

166.3

196.6
216.2

:so

,.,

275

YNt

1.32
1.48
1.49
l.95
ZtI

,.,
Yllr

...
.48

.48
.48

1~O~
9.76
1J5
1.24
.40
3!
10.43
"-,,
17.0
1.11

ill.,

..,.
32

20

"
"

11M
<24

13.01

1.75

1.65
.48
59
13.41
13.'"
21.6
'3!
1.3~

.46

.'"

1208
13.02

. .

. --

13.58
244
1.12
.46

.n

13.65
,'-''
22.7
1.31

14.39
2110
...8
.48

,.R;

'3.'"
20.3
18.8
U8
.98
1.911 U~
1.6%
t.7~
126.3 159.6
lB6~ 196.6
176J
2O.6~ 222% 24.4 .... 20.911 23.4~
15.3
6.1
t4.4
19.4
!.9
16.7
24.2
182
22.9
202
26.2~ 25J~
28.4%
:tl.7~ 29.'%
132~
13.~ 9,\% 10.31
".1~
60.7
10.6
81.6
63.0
81.0

.... -

1)'1"

1GlDD
,.. "-.
.....

3 yr.
5)'1'.

3111

'" 101. RETURI

15.81
265
1."
.46

lUll

1411
1.15
.41
.05
I.....

2001
2Ul
3.05
ZlI
.41
1.JJ.
17.31

....
.....,.: --::

.66

,....

15.13

'3.81
lH
.99
U~
2162
Z5IJ
2O.6~ 11'"
162
III
U.
20.3
3O.1~
10.1%
9."
88.8
110
.. Nil
206.9
11.1%
9.9"
9.9~ 11.1%

97.5
&2.B

e VALUE
UIEPJIl.IIC. OUS
2115
110

SoIospor '"
-Caah FIoIr" por 8Il

Eamnp,...

..

..

3D."

lO"

27J
JIJ.K
1m
130
III
DIl
lUll
11.511
tOll
23~

It

J.I(J

Div'dIDld'd,.. ... II
lip I SporIdin, por '"
8001<
Yahoo por '"
Sbs Dutll'1l
Ayt Ann'l PIE KIlo
UIIl'lICIII

R_PIERdo
A~ Ann' DiY'd YIIkI

:OS _1_'
22.K o-ino
2JJJ

14.8
30.0

10U

.....

~_(In1

I;;

.Ill
l.1D

au

...

12.10
US
t.2ll

150
22."

11.

Not""'It IIniIo
kIcarM 1u RIll
NotPn>lt_
CopT (lnll)

1'.,
JIJ.'~
It3%
16.
..
..
..
III
LaooT ... Il8IIlI~1
135.1
163.4
182.3 186.3
2002
51".EquIty (W
25ll
124% 1HI 128~
9l~ 10.'"
ld~
Rn.n llII ToII!~'
124% 'U% 128~
9J~
10.'%
R.... '" &hr. E_
".S'/,
8.5\
11.1%
6...
9.0%
6.7%
RetaiMd to Caa Eq
11.0%
'.3~
31~
28~
36~
33~
32~
2Sll
All
Dlv'dl
to
NIt
Prof
2"
23"
Capc:ratDn clevebps, rnanufKMay 1992. Foreign buUless, 80'" of '99 sales; R & 0, 11.4~."99

w_,

deprecirtiDn ratlt: 14.8%. Has 1,701 empby88s, 378 sD:khokIeni.


0fIian IInci cIi"Ictors own 25.0%; L Colen, 5.S%; Blown Cap"!,
8.0% (3ttlO proxy). PnisQarrl & Chief Ex8cdiwI 0fIi::.r. M. ZiIDIg.
Inc.: eat AdIRss; 5700 W. 98th St, ~ Ang8Ilts, CA 1lOO45.
phone: 310-645-8200. ItdIImat: www.dpc:web.axn.

T.

Products
Diagnostic
immunodiag
systems (which use the test kits) Is being
nostic
test
kits
are
experiencing
enlarged. The time Is near when addi~
strung demand. The company manufac- tlonal Callfomla space will be needed to
tures its products in the United States, manufacture the test kits themselves.
though the bulk or its sales are made Investors may have overcmnpensated
abroad. Under these conditions, eurodollar for their tardy recognition
of DP
weakness has hurt DP. but not enough to stock.. The share price has more than
keep Its recent
sales
antJ::::,fits
from doubled from Its early-2000 low of 521.70.
growing more rapidly than
ore. Some of Yet, there is not much difference from
this years prosperlty Is surely due to prob- then to now in the company and its earnlerns that competitor Abbott Laboratories lngs and prospects. Hence. we conclude
has had with the Food & Drug AdmlnIs- that the stock must have been either untratlon. leaving the question of whether de~rlced then or is ovellJl1ced now, with
DP can maintain its current rapid growth bo
of these deductions probably being
when Abbott's operations nonnalli:e.
true. The dichotomy reappears in our
New
assays ruel DP's growth. Its ex- recommendations ror the stock. namely. a
pandlng menu includes over 400 tests to Timeliness
Rank of I (HIghest). together
measure honnones, dnJgs, and other med1- with less-than-median 3- to 5-year price
cally important subslanCes present in tiny appreciation potentlal.
amounts in body fluids and tissues. Major These shares are no longer suitable
new 0m:::iWlitles lJe in the infectJous dis- for most investors.
DP stock has been
ease
eld. e.g.. hepatitis. A new mallg- ranked 3 (Average) for Safety for a decade.
nancy marker. being co-developed with
But Its usual absence Dr volaWlty (low
Minerva Phamaceuticals, offers potential Beta and high Price Stablllty) has been
to diagnose cancer earlier than do current dramatically different ror most or this
technologles .
year. Currently. DP Is principally a trad
PhysicaJ expansion is under way. DP's log vehicle .
New Jersey plant that builds instrument
Lucien VirgiJe
December B. 2000

lJ:!"- ._"" .....

",,-,.pit

1,.bout

J""""l'
11. (CI"'""""."_
sx-divDMd aboot n.-y 20.
Appo:imnt dlWOnd payment dates: Fetxuary 19,

i~51Oct's

19.

Yare lDt ~
Inc. "
~
mtI'ItIl. FIdIIII ....
is ~
"'_
tJiIIkRd 10 be niIIIIe" lis p-urilM
THEPUBU'il-ERIS 1)1 RE PONSIllf ORNfi ERRORSOR OfIISSIONSHfREW. TIlisp.au.iani5sftlyfar~
-._
-.nlIl (I .......
pri*d. -....:
Cf dI2f' bm. .1Mll III" ~
II" IT'MrIlnJ
(I ~

CI llXlll.

--

.....

lIftS, and IIlirtBtI rnedi:::aJ irmlnodilgnostic t8sI kts and r8Bl8d


mlnl'nenlatDn for hospital and clinicallabcd'Dy use. PrincipII appIicIIti:lns ntIiIlB tl the dlltBcl:ion and management elf honmnaI dBonIeIs, irmtc:tioul dis8Bses, ClIJICIIIS, R1bslilnce abuse, 8IIqiII..
dBbBtes, Intmia Ind ostlloparol:iI. Acqui1!d CimII Diagncri:s,

May 19, Augus1 18, NovBnber


If lllll)' tit ~

- - r"

...

,- ,... """'" ''''


....

MARKET CAP: 1125 mllUoll (Small

......

- -- - - -- - --

111111111,.1'1, 111'1

--

.., '"

PM Stock None

11IIiLi

Target Price Range


2003 ZOOO 2005

21.7

II

P.rcellt 4.5

..

POSmoN

6O.B

35.3
21.9

sha ...

S1oc:k 13.862,029 shs.

...

'"

.....

."---

.n

CURRENT

20.'

....

.'"

Connon

25.5

25.0

Ill"

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 199~2


7.36
3.14
3.98
6.30
7.88
1.65
~46
'.06
W
1.50
1J5
1.110 1.67
.61
.86
1.20
.12
.<3
1,.49
1.2D
1.3>
~7
.51
.76
l.DO
Z7
'.2'
.
.. .12
.20
24
.32
~2
.50
1.15
.07
.07
21
.33
.
U7
5.97
9.11
1.51
320
3.65
723
8.73
1.94
lB.70 '0.70
11.1'
".n 11.112 1." W14 ,,-" 1J.1J
22.0
23.7
17.0
17.1
20.1
22.4
ZO.'
25.9
'8~
1.67
1.67
lJ.
1.65
1.44
1.65
1.39
1.40
1.50
..
.. .6~ n
..
..
.8~
CAPITAL STRUC1\JRE as of Il3OI'IO
70.9
110.1 103.5
3OA~ 29.11 23.51
Total Dl;bt $14.1 mil Due In 5 yu ... S14.1 rni..
3J
4.7
LTDebtNone
17~
19.3
11.3
Luses, UftCII~
AnnUlirentals$1.9mil.
29.'" 30.9'10 :o.O~
22B~ 21.'~
16.71
P.... 1on Liability None.
48.9
52.4

..

32.'

33.5

24.3

,I
I

I .. 'j;

...... ,,..

,,,. ....,

38
2lI
,..7

.~.

44.'

Jf.AMJJAI

38

26.13
17B

'00

000 000 000


000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000020320
InstituUorllll Decision.

.".

3O.S
17.1

ShngI!

i1dQes

Reun

GaIn

Price

.....0
20.0

53.8
28.3

22..3

22.1(~":;ltl~W~ 1.55 DIV'lIDD 1.1%

LEGENDS
ll.O. C.'JII. FIDJr" P 'Ih

MaIUil)

I(1J,

".~ I

38.0
19.3

~igh;

1 """.""

SAFITf

~JX)

In)"""

....

~
" ~
tiIlI.
N_tial i1.enIIllM.
.-t
pIIIlbliaIl. __
ptldII:L

Stablily
Prb Growth,.,..1stHc:e
eaminvs Prdctl.blltIy

I'.

75
15
65
: II:

II.

DOLE FOOD
CO.. INC. NYSEDDl
4_ ..,_

TIIEUIIESS

3 H~ll2109D
3 .........

SAFTY

TECHNiCAl

....

38.6

25.'

26.3

SO 1:31511

40.0

31.9

26.0

25.'

InatituUoMI Deci.ion.
55
62
30973

68
31494

oI,.llld

.".

.'.

..

1.29
9.36

1.05
8.35

..

..

..

Percent
helW5

41.40
lu

1Ll

.88

1.00

..

..

..

20~
1.61

..

(6'" of CaP')

Cammon Stoek 55,844,853 sIls.

7l311oo

...

(33" of Cap'O
MARKETCAP: $1575million (Sm.1l C.p)
IIt7_
CURRENT POSmoN
19011

475.5

264.7
36.1
504.1

Cumlntli:;sb.

804.9

O'h."

ANNUAl RATES Pat

1n,..

.... IJ>w"'1
Sales
"CIISh !bK'

T.O"
'.0%
0.5%

.-

~~s
Boot Value

eo.

..2.~

28.1

516.3

.5.2

43.2

'iTfOJ'

0. .. Due

..,..

42.4
600.7
524.6

35.'
616.6

(F'FO)

60.1
1245.9
25D.O

1212.9

295.5

81.7

39.6

:i~

510.0
841.7

.......~ .....'"
Pat

Elt'd'l7"

5.""

3.0%

9.0%

..

-10.0%

6.5"
8.S'"
1.5"
'0.5'1

IlIJAR1mYSAlfS~~

... ,

lIar.P,r Jun.Ptr SeIlPer

llnd,r

-....

965.0 1107.8 1178.3


1.7
19111 0120 1164.0 '209.8
188.4 1316.6 l'll1
l.
156.2 1301.0 1436.9
2lIlIl f16 f:lfJ
151lO

V.. r

1085.0 ~.1
1038.' "2A.2
5080.8
l1CU

l1JU

52<IJ
E.u.S PERSItAR,,
F_II
It...Per Jun .... ' Soo.Pw 00cP., Y265
.40
.30
1997
1.11
.70
1.86
.26 d.13
19111
.38 1.35
1.19
.PI
I.
.52
.66 I.m
.If
1..45
d.02
.65
..81
.10
f.90
2lIlIf
.78
.IJ
~J
1.115

eo.

_Y

, 1".31

1991
1197

I.
I.

.10
.10

.to

.10
.10

...,

DJiIlBIl5PAJ)c
Jun.30 Soo.3O Doc..31 Y.,
.40
.10
.10
.10
.10
.40
.10
.10
.10
.40
.10
.10
.10
.40
.10
.10
.10
.10

141
....
.-'W':""',,":
16 .r,;".........
oGI8111,12.
"81'85,
From

has

ended

3rd s.t 11J~JB~DI..n. Excl nBI: I"IOfAC.


1lans:'84,dS2.
; 5,d1O;'86,d12;'87,
Co

llIlll

ViIIle

lile ~~

TH[PUJUSiR IS NOTRE
d lilli' be ..--

"
20

'.

'.

,."",

'.'

!IlIftd. ~

12'

16.,
18'
1.26
1.08
.3% 1.1%
3003.2 3216.0
10.01> 97%
no 86.8
115.7 133.7
36.0% 21.0%
3.9% '.2%
2591
411.7
B12.7
542.'
928.8 100t1.1
B.O% 9.0\
12.51 12.81
.2.5% 10.0%
.. 22%

201
113
1.3%

328
1.93
11%

337S.5 3430.5
97% aO%
1119.6 .326
92.2
59.
21.4\ 10.910
2.7%
1.7%
335.5 4821
9f7.7 1158.3
1001.0 10521
8.0%
3.9%
92\
5.71
6.8% 3.4'"
,.%
40\

1.4,

3841.8 J803.8
.. % 8~%
147.7 123.7
67.9
87.5
230\
233\
1.8\
23%

640'

480~

1554.5 896.0
1080.6 508.'
89%
'.3%
63\
17.214.1\ 12.5%
35%
27%

181
1.14
1.0'
3640.3
as%
111.1
130.0
180%
3.4\
'63'
903.8
849.6
11.0%
23/%
19,3\
18%

1,.

.92
.9%

d$'.2!1:'''''
......
'98, d.68; '96,1l2.
d$1.66;
'99, d9f;."",Excl
dl*:.t!;
OPS:'95, dS1.61. Ne:rl~ . .-pt. dll8l1d1l Jan.
(C) D'lds:5" 11"82; 3 "and.111shs.d
it DIIlIined hunI

11lMMIlI. Fld.lIIIllIIBW

II"

dlallllll.

II"

-.ta

1.21
.9%

2001
90.63
158
1.19
.40
2.64
9.53
85."
21.7
1.24
1.5%
soro.6
S8\
131.9
67.9
18.1\
1~%
380.7
1285.7
5320
61\
12.7,
8.5\
33\

...

!l45o'
US
1.45

C VALUEUNEPJIl.lle.

...

....

.....
.......::

~-

--

.""

52...

I---

14'

30.0

-74.8

94." Sllnplflh /II.


'CuII_",,_
fM Elmln;1 PII''' II
DiY'dl Dlcl'd pIf It! C
1SI
2'" ~, Spondiog"" ..
f.. O f2.05 1... _",,111
55.st
9
AygAnn
R_'IERdo
~
Avg
DlY'dYIIId

OUS
lGU11
US

An,,'

_IInIlA

SA I~ ......~_~

.... '" D~I")

2M
AS
2M
fUS
55;110

'.~O
1.110

Oft
Jl5Il
7.""

135

fl""
fA

m
WI>
5J6

U%
11ft
fa""

'05 Nit ProI1lln1i1l


II"" hcInITuRD
2-"" Not PloII .....
410 W_g~'l
.. "l
f>llIl

'"

15J
1"\
21%

,...
~=::-'''''}
n. "n.
InIII
"'8
.""
$IIG

7.5l1 R...... an TatII tIp'l


15.5'JlR_.,Sr.ftdtv
'2"" R_IoCanlEq
U% AllDfy'dlla NIt Pn:II

'.ft
f.""
2'"
'ft
Coote, IfIC.,12t95. Spun off Caste & Coob, Inc., 1~.
Has aboul
59,500 1lIIIpDy8ies; 17,000 stx:kI'Iokiers. 1999 dtpr. IiItr. 6.8%.
David H. MLGoct owns 23.9% ~ CDl'TWl'I')l'1 shira; *Mintlg OIls.
& dR, IllsI than '10. (4000 PIOxy). ChaDnln & CEO: D;wi:l H.
MIWoI1Inc..:

HzwIi Ada".: 31365 Oak

Cr8SI

DI"in, WeslIakI Vi-

8gB, CA 91361. Tel.: 818-879-6600. 1nt8met www.doIlI.ccm

the fresh-rot

ment. In addition.

salad and
and ex.panding market share. We look for this
trend to amtinue as consumer demand for
ready-to-eat
prepackaged
meals
and
snacks climbs. Assu~
the aforementioned banana setback
llBers for some
tlme, these hlghermargln businesses wUI
Ukely become increasingly Important In
maintaining top and bottomUne growth.
Investors with a long-tenn perspecdve
find some appeal at the current v uation. These shares are trading
at a relatively deep diSCOWlt to both their
historical norms and the broader market.
Plus. Dole is well positioned to take advantage of improving global conditions,
supported by Its market reach and strong
brand equity. In addition. a1th0::f' management
previously
indtcat
that
measures such as a spinoff or an outright
sale are not a viable option, we believe
that if Dole stock continues to trade at
such a low premium. takeover speculadon
may ramp up, especially given the consolidatJon mode of the food sector. In general, at thJs time .
Scott T. Falzone
November 10, 2000
fnrlt-cut

lines are galning steam,

m:l.

$,90"""
......~'''_1l6''!''''.':~

dN dDt: M1y Oltc.; pay: IBi Dee. CIVetrn~. &


prrrt. dns
~
~From '95, exd. real
851.h'srtop$..(
I_,nrtsspundf,
12195.
bIIIilMlII ta be r.-. MI is p1IWiSelI ....
........-s d
liMI.
itWitl.Jb~'-.mlim
....iIlIl5IIIIlM. pIrl.
or ~
-.y ~
c.- *Grlric .......
'1rlice II" I'uUl.

lilt.,.,..,

This .......
l-:J

23.3

4336.1 442'1
7.4\
B1\
112.1 .221
1801
96.1
300\
lBO\
3.7\
21%
365.B
408.7
7f04..B 1116.4566. 621.8
13.2%
7.4\
24.01
15.5'
2O.S% 11.6\
16%
25\

Dole i. downsizing lu fresh fruit operations in an effort to limit the effect of


lingering oversupply issues. In particular, the company rontlnues to encounter
difficulties related to an increased nwnber
of banana llcenses and soft demand In
eastern Europe. In turn. sell.ing prices
have fallen, thereby hurting margins. A
handful of proposals has been considered
to remedy the situation. but to no avaU.
Ultimately, untll a resolution Is determin.
ed. this Issue will continue to be a major
stumbllng block for Dole. Accordingly, the
company is reducing its production capactry in order to ease the pressure on profits.
And, given that Europe 15 B sizable outlet
for all of Dole's products, a strong U.S. dollar In relation to the euro is hurting resuIts even further. As a result. we have
cut $0.40 from our 2000 share-net
ostlmale. to S 1: .45. Based on Dole's slower
earnings momentwn
and dimmer neartenn prospects. this equity has faUen one
notch to 4 (Below Average) for Timeliness.
Other business segments, meanwhile.,
are continuing
to post solid resuJts .
Net sales in the fresh vegetables unit are
benefiting
from a better pricing environ-

IT"': .... "':

pIi*d. ~

,1.4
1.43
1.3%

2'.B
1.63

BUSINESS: ODe Food Company, Inc. is one of the liIrgMf mmpe..


nills &ngaglId in the worttwide 1tVCIIg, ~ing,
disrixrting,
slid lI'Iirketitg of high-quaity brBnded food products, ;rtnarIy hsh
fruib BOO vegetables. S,*,;.a.
biJSI_ to SlllIgtanIJ, &95Tlilnsf-.red real ..
ckwelopl ..... opntDns in Hawai, Callernil, 'lid ArizonI, .rId two 1uIlK)' !It'ieets DIl lIna'~ to c.sIIt &

ORN[RR~OR<MSSiOHSHE.RfI\l.
II..,

.,".". ....... ..."...-....

" Tat RE1UItII 1G111O

..... .2

..

li.blDty None
Stock Nollfl

Cumlnt Assts
Ao::15 Pa)'Olble

32

1'1111111

3" .

Annual I1!nlills$121.0 min.

Rooe_

60
50
40

- -- - --

1Z.0

..

129
.81

Ca~~

-- - - -

'h

30034

41.12

..

:='"'"

.. ,~....
.,

I_

..

leu., UnCll~

,. ,

'.

8iIIl1-.:l: Ulll;
total intefftt a:N8I1Ige: 1.ax)

eo

"111" Ill'"

"

T.l'9't PrIc. R8n911


2003 2004 2005

21.5
11.8

34.1
13.8

..'.

IItsrest

Pu,lon
P""~

57.3
25.1

33.8

CAPITALSTRUCTURE .. crfGll1,w
Tabl o.bI $1295.31111. Du.1n 5 Yrs $816.5 mill.
LT c.bt $1213.6 mil. LT Intmst $55.0 mYL
(IT

SO.1

19_~
99jij997
1989
1990
1994
1988
1991
1992
1993
1995
1987
64.13
71.84
71.55
45.87 00.67 54.1S
56.61 51.10
64.19 6355
36.90 '1.68
,.5,
3.62
2.57
3.17
3.71
3.40
3.62
3.53
2.51
'.03
2.20
1.86
1.00
1.1.
216
2.55
1.6,
205
1.85
1.00
1.46
21'
..
.40
..
.40
.10
.40
.40
.40
.40
.40
.40
4.16
5.41
2.81
3.45
3.58
S.l'
.84
1.27
'ro 1.51 1.83 21' 263
1. 11 1S.67 17.53 16.BS 17.10
9.18 11.04 10.90
18.17
8.49
1253
9.97 1112

..

..

30.'

I'

.'

1985
1986
0029
36.88
'7.10
lO1
.73
.54
l1B
d.30
d.11

1984

..

23.0

...-.... .... ,_
62

43.8

38.'

",

35 +180%
!2'%
loW
Inakler D-elalDn.
DJF_".JJA
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000000000
00000
0 0 0 0

....
I::"

35.S
22.S

"1':':.'"_'-'SI'eCen-O! " ,
.,'
"

R.un

GaIn

".0
25.0

LEGENDS
9.0 I II:I~ falOp ~
Reillire Pm Sh!lgll

2003-45PRwEc'!"NS
Ann,ToIII
PrtCi

<5.3

!lAlD

.10 (lJJO-MarlIl)

lET"

High:

\.OW:

~ 3.3%
12 PE 8.0(=:Jj~~~O.55

I~ECElfi
P~CE

:1a

61Clck'. rice Stabllty


Prim GrQ'Ifth P.rUaellCll
hmlngaPractallllly
I

I'.

70
10'

45
:

II:

II'

AIR PRODUCTS NYSEAPD

1~~cT35

I."

24.3

p~

flAm
23.2
lOA

1NE 094
136 (TrilWO!:q:f42\11iW
111 liP! flAm.

"'..

21.9

35.3
25.2

.....
33.2

45.3

"'.0

1M)

TlD

2.2%

39.7
23.0

49.3
23.7

- -- - -'
I

",."("

Target Pric. Rangll


2003

20041 2005

ALBEMARLE CORP. NYSE.AlB

3 ,-",02'''''
3 ... n.,
TECHNICAl.2 QIi5ed "124k1!

TIIElJ11BS

WEll
BED

".Dll.

.J5

I~ECE/IT
P~CE

22 Pf!lAOO 111
High:
low:

17.8

20.0

'2.5

'2.3

~FIM077

lIMl
YlD

(tnilniID~
W.,:NIIf
PHAOO
27.3
17.4

24.1
14.4-

26.2

LEGENDS
1.0 J [CI~ fII.,0p 11'1
.. ".. R~
Pm Slrsl!Jlh

OC:-d ......

'UlUt)

80

'rmnJC\l1

t'%'

Anlt1TDbI
Rll.IIm

GUI

f~~l18"
1~

40 +35%
30
Inskl.r DeclallDns

.s.....
.....
....
" ,::~l 125:

- -- - --

-.

32

2Q

-..-

1111111'

1.

"

"

DJFMAIIJJA

10

.' .'

0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 10 Z
000000100

....

.. ..... ,.

l~utiDnaIOeci.Jon.
lOl.
43

I....

.0

..

...

..

.... .......,.

......

'I T01. RE1lJRII1G1l111

.~.

M>

,-",

,2>
1~.
,~.
."

Perc::ent '.0

I.

1&11 .....

32
'3332

14.8
".0
104.8

212

......'"

1991 1998 1999 2000 2001 'e VAlUE l-'E PUll. tIC. o~
15.52 15.40 11.<6
18.31 2020
21.45
25.55
V,1
2.n
2.111 Cuh ~
3.40
3.40
pII' III
2."
1.01
.l11l
'-" 1.63 \.65 200 215 U.pJ*sh "
.32
.40
A.l
.52 DWd.o.crd,., ...
25
.31
.II
1.64
1.50
1.63
I." US t,2. :C.. 'ISpMdIn .... '"
9.18
9.60
9.61 10.62 11//5 1Ut Book ..... pwlh
lU'
55.
7.01
ldBOIl SII. OIIW;
45.00
15.f
18.4
13.4 12.3
f2A
1'll... 'PIE_
1.15
.87
.70
.70 ~-,;;
R_PIERdo
.111
~
1.5~
1.31
A'8 AM' DiJ'1IYWd
1.'"
2."
'.Jl'
..
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as 019f.S01DO
903.4 1080.9 1244.2
.... 5 829.9 820.9
845.9
.75 "'(lnoII)
11SIJ
..
16."
17.3" 11.~
19.2" 22.9'
nn 2Ul' '-.;..
24.5"
25.Ol'
23.'"
Total Debt $111.0 mil. Due in 5 Y,. $103.0 mil.
..
.. ".5
71.0
69 .
75.0
75.8
7SA
93J
94.1
71'
WI
lTIn1eMl.$6J)mil.
LT Debt $110.7 mil.
..
.. 26.6 51J 00.6 61.7 80.
14.1
81.4
'7.' Nt1 PtoII ll.t"
(l1"'ofCap'~
..
..
46.~
33.11142.61 38.41
21.11S IItant Tal IbIt
31.0" 30.6"
>I.DS
'1.IIS
35. '
..
..
luses, Uncapttlftad Annual ~ntals $6.5 niL
",
9.6'11 10.3"
US
US Nt1.... I1......
5.4"
9.6"
IUS
71'
..
.. 181.6 210.0 23<.6 111.1 184.1 203.6 2011
21JJ
'M
-.
Cop'
(111111
Pension Uabtllty None
..
.. 81.4 237.8 200.1
24.4
91.4
192.5 159.0
m
15..
11'
..
..
7001
59. Sl".
545.0 622.6 505.2. 517.3 451.1 490.6
,1lJ
SSIJ
PId Stock None
..
..
3.9,
7.4%
11.9% 131'11 13.5% 131% 14.55 t4.55 R.un on TDtIICap'
,'-'"
-(83'" at cap1}
CorntnOIf StDC. "5,827,066 sh!.
..
..
15.5% 11.8% 16.6% t'.5% IUS R_ ... Shr.E";"
3.8"
9.4" '0.1"
12.2'
".DS
IIARKET CAP: $1.0 mlJJN lilid cap)
..
..
-8.51
12.31
11111 l:US RNinecI to en Eq
12.8"
9.4"
14.5"
..
..
..
CURRENT POSITION '''8
11 ",....
20'11
23%
23%
23%
23
22ll
A!llJiy'dl
~
NIt
Praf
21'
18.9 BUSINESS: AblrnBr1e it. II manufaebnr of ctw;micailliat IIRl ad- name retatlanb, call1!ysts, polymer CL.IJtives, and anti:Glidants.
21.2
176.7
Receivables
145.2
155.1
dltives to a inlBnnediatllS lor pIaslics, pol)tnws and elastomers,
The OIefIlS unl was ~
3196. Has approx. 2.550 employees;
104.4
InvllnlDry (LIFO)
127.2
110.8
agn;u.uraI mrnpounds, and pha'nIiiGB IlicIIL The company cur 8,070 shllrehMkn. orTicars and dnClcn own 21.1'1 of conwmn
00..
17.9
Iltnlly
operates
through
Is
poIyn&
charni:;aIs (53% d '99 sales)
silct (3100 pro~). Chairman & CEO: FtJyd D. GotlwIId Jr .. Inc.:
311.5
e9.<4- and fine chemicals (-41'1 of '99 Niles) diYiIions. AlB'I poIyrner VA. Addf8ls: 330 SouIh FotdI sn.t. P.O. Box 1335, Rictvnond,
Acds Payable
<4-5.1 61..4clulmicals
business
prtJduaes
II
bmiId
IiInge
cI
chemi:lls,
llcIudinp
VA.
23210. TeL: 804-788-6OOD.1...-net:: www.abemn.aJm.
-3
73.2
Other
.9.2
62.'
Albemarle
Corp.
registered
a
strong
ket
for zeolites. which is an agent used in
142.9
Current Liab.
107.9 "'"i3U

Albemarle was inmrpora\ad in Virginia in 1990 1991 1992 1993~'IW~J~1996


.. .. .. .. 16.36 11.63
Novemberof 1993andwas a wholly-owned
..
.. .. .. 2.19 2.<3
subsidiaryof E1hylCorpornlion.On Febru.. .. -.ary 28, 1994,Ethyl spunoll 10 iIs common
\.00
..
.. .. -- .2ll 21
sha",hoIde.. all of 1h. outstandingsh.",s 01
.. .. .. 1.07 1.70
Albemarle, including Elhyl's ol.flns and
..
.. .. .. 825 9.42
derivatives, tromine chemicals. and
..
.. -..
specialtychemica~ businesses.Since thai
..
.. .. -- 22.0 15.1
lime, AlllemM. has been a publicly traded
.. .. .. 1.44 1.05
company00 Ihe NewYort<Slock Exchange
..
..
.. 1.31 \.3'
under 1h.ticller ALB.

...

.....-

--

--

..

-----

--

..
..

..

-- 2.5,

..

..

caJ:'~

....

"""""'..-

~~' 3:i:

"-"""'1
S.1os
"Cash Flow"

It''''--

---..

EZlI'M"Ig5

DIvidends
Book Value

.....

c.,.

1197
'191
1999

2OIJO
2llO1

.......

Esfd'l7'.

Pat

Put

..

"...

1.0'"

.. 0%

1.0"
8.0"

18.5%

10.5%

29.5%

10.5"

'.0%

It.'"

ll\IARlEJD.YSAW II'"
.".31 J... 20 SR,3t .... 21
1fJ7.7 207.1 216.7
2.f5.2 204.1 196.2 205.'
2llII.3 200.' 21lt
22<.7
235.5 225.2. 237.1 22f.2
2IR
NA
UD
24S

'96.'

c..

EARNllGS PER StARE A


el'ldar Mar.31 Jun..
SeD..
Oed1
1197
.36
.38
.37
.33
1191
.42
.48
.40
.33
.5f
1199 .49
.29
.36
.61
.21
2OIJO
.5f
.5f
2DD1
.eD .55
.41
.55
lIUARlBlLT
OIVllENOS
PAIl"
Cdo
......31 Jun.3D Sep..30 1*.31

..

"""1!1!6

.055

1197

. 7

1998 .09
1199 .10
2OIJO .10

.055

.055

.ar

. 7

.f.
.fl

."

.09

.119
.10

..,

.....

9.4"..

'1.5"

""

.ar

.09
.119
.10
.11

Full

Y..,

1129.9
8209
545.9

US
ITS
Filii

Y..,
1.44

1.63
1.65
200
215
F

Y..,
.24

.30
.30

year-to~ar
bonom-line
comparison
in the
"rd quarter. The company's two
~rim.ary dlvisions, Polymer Chemicals and
Ine ChemIcals. experienced sales growth
or 13% and 10%, respectively.
Furthermore, the company's cost-euttlng measures
or 1999, which resulted In a 5% reduction
DC Its workforce. also helped lift earnings.
However,
The strong earnings momentum
may
slow a bit beginning in the Decunber
quarter.
F1ame retardants. which have
experienced strong volume
In
growth
recent months. could experience a slow~
down over the next year or so. lltIs is primarily a reflection of price increases,
whJch were Insdtuted by Albemarle on Dctober 1s1. Indeed.. it appears possible that
many customers may have purchased
flame retardants before the price hikes
were
Implemented, which
could
have
moved a portion of the December quarter's
revenues tnto the third period. The price
ina-ease should. however, offset at least
some of the volume setback.. Additionally .
the company's bottom llne will likely be
hindered by a new competitor in the mac-

~m'

2l1li. \/IlJe lM
TliEPUBUStRlSfrI)IR[
rJ .., be IIpaIIaSl, ..

rs ~

powdered laundry detergents. Too. h1fther


raw material costs, malnly for ethy ene,
may also hun profits. On the other hand,
we look far pharmaceuticals to grow at a
mld-single-digtt clip next year, a reflection
of continued strong demand for Jbuprofen.
Also, we ant1dpate
that the agricultural
area will continue its slowbut-steady
recovery in 2001, improving at GDP4ype
rates.
Albemarle remains in the market for
acquisitions. We believe that the compa
ny's strong cash flow and liquid balance
sheet make acquisitions a possibility. Also
of note, the board has recently increased
ALB's dividend by 18%, to SO.13 a share,
~nn1nB
In the Ilrst quarter of 2001.
AI marIe shares' 'limeliness
rank
has dropped a notch to A_rage (3).
Also. despite our expectation for 10%--12%
share-eamings
gains out to 2003-2005,
th1s issues' apprec1ation potential fur the 3
to 5 years ahead is slightly below average.
AccreUve acqutsJtlons. though not included
In our financial P"!leetlons,
may add
meanlngfully
to our expectations .
Alan G. House
November 24, 2000

-r.----~-~::::---.-.~~
.40

diluEd. Exck.ldes I'lOmlC1Iring gains: '94, 11,;


W
- 116, -S1.4Z; '99,
- 23;- '00, Q2, 22,.
'95, 1B,;
NlIX1fBlTlDgs I1lport due late Jan.
ID

...

~:::=lI.-l

ANNUAl RATES

.....

D~:")

,2.,

..

....
I."

--

--

"""'DuO

..,.
60
50

2OO~51'ROJEC1'!JNS
PricII

,
T.rg.t Pric. R.nge
2003 2004 2005

26.1
14.6

25.3
16.6

16.0

2.4%

ex about Mifi;h 15. Approx. div'd pByIMnt


dahIs" 1st rI an, AprI, July, Odobs".
tel In mirmns.
-mi. fa=-1IIIlenIII i511til1liled IIa1I ~
1lIliefed"1Ie

[ORAIlf[RR0R501lOMl$gQNSH[R~.Thb~"IIIdfIal~-'RIlI
i1111!l'''''' ~
ClI" d/lIJ bJII. ClI""
b~

on.

nIIIt*=

.,..,.,.

8IId15

rica Stl.bll1J
Prtce Grawth ~
Earnlngll Pnddablity

60
15
45

hH::k's

prgrri*II ......

ClI" IIltdftrir

-.arIlirs

d ~

UId.

.... irllIf1IMl'II!.
P-!
pdJbItn. scwi~ ClI" P'IIU1

I",

:11:

"',

IRE<:ENT
IPRICt

ALBERTSON'
S NYSEABS
4 _~

1JII[IJII[SS

WID

28.7
18.4

>5.7
HI.3

II"

29 .
23.4

34.'

30.'
25.1

273

43 .
31.5

....

67.1
.... 0

305

....

r.rgef Price Range


2003 2004 2005

39.3
20.1

29.0

"llm~o

'00

..'"'
eo

54
110 ,II

---...--

HIgh
70"' 1+190%\
llN'
50
IMider Dec:IliAon.

l"'11ri'f

o100000000'"
J f IIA.

.. .,

o,IlfIII

32%

.11111

II'

J J

1"1",,

I'W'

22"

'I'll

I'

'2

"/

2A
20

,."

.- .....
.. . ..
A~,~I'h"""lI!'",I'f-'-'--+-_+------"'-+:-'------"--"-'='-'-:""'---c------+-----+--f--+

010101100
... [l 0 3 3 1 2 4- 0

_w

" Tot
1 yr.
3)'1'.
5 yr.

REllJRN

""
...32.11
-32.6
-22.6

"
12

......... r--
1CM1O I-

14..8
30.0
104.11

I-

1999 2000 2001 C>VALlIE~[PUll.IIC. 03-45


38 ...
11.55 KtD WlllMfshA
ttl7D
45.83 49.96 54.96 59.18 65.14 88.45
3285
".53
US
05 "(1111 F1ow"perIh
US
216
2.84
3.14
3.44
3.90
Hi
254
1.69
1.45
.55
.62
.15
.94
1.14
1.39
1.05
.97
2.JD
2.55 Elmmgs per
US
10M
1.96
2.09
2.36
216
1.65
~
~
M
~
n
.J2
.52
.60
.64
.68
.n .71 .ID D1v'dl Ded'd per sh CD
.36
.32
.28
.42
~
jO
jl
j2
~
~
525 5.48 6.65
lOG
16.50 BookVoluoporsh
2J.J5
7.75
8.96
9.85 11.44 13.46
4.54
1.n
1.95
222
251
2.99
3.47
26426 264.66 253.41 253.
25 .92 250.69 245.74 245.70 4 .n Ut.70 4tJ.1f Conrmon Shs CIIr1st'II 4t7. 0
1264.45 265..99 261.26 265.44 Zfj7.72 261.64
17.0
19.0
17.1
19.5
17.9
22.5
20.5 ~ ..... _ "0 An",/ Ado
21.1
172
209
10.8 11.8 13.8 14.3 13.6
17.0
1.13
1.14
122
1.03
1.17
1.18
1.12
~I':'"
...... P/....
f.f5
1.33
1.01
.96
.94
.96
1.13
1.29
'.28
1.5% 1.7%
1.6%
1.7%
1.3%
1.6%
- ~
AVIIAnn' DiY'dYilld
f.51
HI HI
2.6'
2.5% 2.0% 1.8"
1.7% 1.6'
.75IIJ
11184
12585 13m 14690 16005 31418 3135D JtSGO SIIa ($nil) A
8680.5
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE.5 of 8iWO
25.51
24.71\
V.61 28.01 28.71 29.71 30.'% 2J.5lI 2J.'" Gnou M"I1n
38.01
Total DlbI $5213 nil
UIJeIn 5 V,. $2800 mil
1.3%
80.4'
8.3"
8.31 8.61 1.6"
7.'"
7.Jll 0p0nIing Ihr;In
I.5lI
6.3'
LTDebt$5101 mil
LTlnte,. $395.0miU.
676
164
826
818
9B3 2491
2565
264D NunIbw of sa..
2JOD
562
Ind. $207 mil. capitaized leaseS.
464.9 493.8 516.8
582.6
276.1
165
'1l65 Nol""'"'11nB1
1485
(Est'd LT intllln!st urned: 2.Bx; iJtal intenst
38.11. 31.91 31.5% 36.6%
37.SI
3U" 3".1% !nan.TuRD
!U"
Q3Vlr.Ige: 2.7x)
(47% ofC8p1) ~=c..-;~~~~~~-h'~---;~;+~~~~---;~~~;'+-'7~I-"~~~~~~---+~~~
3.69' 3.58% 3.52% 3.64"
2.1%
1.1'% Nil Pr1)ftt bain
1 'S
2.11'
Lea.., Ullc.pitlrliud Al'lttellIllIHTla5 $262..2 mil
194.5 420.8 352.4 455.1 527.0
132.1 942
191.7
UO
211t1W_OCop'I(lm1)
3SIl
99.0
91.8
P.ulon U&b11tyNoma
_
5Il5OLon9""'"-llnlIl
suo
512.4 1322 1051.8 1130.6 1684.5 4992.0
665.9
159.1 151.7 5082
1087.9 1199.5 1388..4 1389.4 1687.9 1952.5 2247.02419.52810.5 5102.0
6380
S'511 81". E'ultv l\IlIIIli'
"511
Pfd Sloek None
18.3% 10.211 18."" 15."" 15.6" 14.1" 10.6% to.~ ta~ RdJrn 011 ToCI!
19.6%
15.6%
C.1
IfA
Common Stcd 0II21,038,228~.
(53% ofC8p'Q
as 01'1111110
25.3% 24.1\ 23.8" 22.01 21.4'
19.~
15.0%
20.7% 115.8% 15.3 11ft R.turn an SIv". Emit..
21.5'
IIARKET CAP:$10.1 billion (La9 c.pl
17.31 15..510 14.91 1491
10.5% 1D~ Rdllntd ill CollI Eq
11.5S
1~.6' 15.3" 13.8'.4
CURRENT POSmDN
'"I
,.U
Il3100
271
301
301
281
311
2911
271
"'"
.111 AJ lHv'ds ill Nfl Prof
m
~_",(111~
80..
231
107 BUSIII:SS: Albertson's, Inc. opemes tnon! l1an 2.500 l'BIiiJilgro- bUlDn centen hi sourat aboul 75% cI mEl'Chandl!lllt. Has abl
Receivillbles
153.7
587
536 arJ sllhS and stInd-a1one drugst6lil 36 nn. .aDSl1h8 U.S. 235,000 ernpl. (60" ooionized). 1999 depr. me: 6.5". orrlC8n &
~
(UFO)
15~~
3~~
AlXlUir8cf hrMri:I:lI Stcres {1,SBD A:Jres), &99; BlIttBy (29 stns),
diec:tn
/told i1'bouf
of stca: CapOl Rese.dI, 11.7%;
Markus Stllung, 6.9% (4100 pruxy). Channan
Ind CEO: GiWy
CulT8ntAsseb
1833.9 ~
3957
lDi98; Bruno1 ('4 Ans), 11/'98; Smlly'l (10 lIaras), 4198; SeesMI:ha8L Ine.: Delilw'WEI. Adcr.: 250 Par'tcanW Boul8Y.-d, BoiIe,
Aa:ts Payabkl
874.0
2132
2231
sal'1 (10 stns), 1/98. Other bIInnlll1l indo Osco Drug, Sav-on,
Debt Due
18.4 642
112 AanlI Man .. Mu.Foods, and Lucky sa.. Opem. 22dim- Idaho 83728. T.L: 208-395-8200.lnIarnBt WWW.llleItsons..com.
Other
438.4
1281 -..11!!
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

17.91
.50
~

19.02

20.13

22.11

25.30

27.71

30.71
1.33
AS
24
4.06
167.64
18.3
1.36
U'*
8218.6
2.4.9%
6.1'
531

Ih".

1.4"

f-;;;:;:;;=~",==~~:'::",=:':;:=~'-!,;;;;=~:::---:-~:..L,~":!:===':--:;'=~;;':':':;-::::;:::=--+'-=='-i

...-oJ...

~J

2.3"

Albertson's earnings shortfall in the


July period was the latest
in a series
al'dw-(p"/
llYn.
Hn.
Il:J Uti
of events that has resulted
in '8 64%
Sales
11.0%
10.5% 9.0"
drop in the share price from the late"CashFlow" 15.5% 13.0% 10.5"
1998 peak. This Is unfamiliar terriwry for
Elllmngs
14.0%
10.5%
10.0"
Albenson's. which, untU the merger with
OM1lHJds
16.0% 13.0%
50~
BookValue
14.5%
15.0% 14.0"
American
Stores in June, 1999, had rarely
R""
(I..-)'
..f.'II stumbled, Indeed. throughout Its history It
iAJJr~J:~~P.r
Jan.Per y~ has been a consistent top- and bottom-line
1197 360113681 3612 37B9 ,_
grower. One of the trouble points for ABS
1191 3848 3995 3990 41n
16005 is Its performance with the former Lucky
1911 9216 9381 8983 9B98 37478 stores in California that were rebannered
200D 9013 9213 9f5O 9114 3135lJ to the Albertson
name last year. It seems
2101 9125 f7!i1J
9700 ftu25 395l1O clear that competitor Safeway is benefiting
~
_5
PER
SHARE"
,f:1.. from the upheaval there. Fiscal 2000 (ends
e':" Apr.fW JuIJl... OclP... JIJLPterY"'- FebfllaJY 2001) should continue to provide
71 209 its share of challenges; share net will llke1197 .44 .44 .50.
ly rernaln close to last year's penorrnance.
1991
.51
.52
.58
.77
236.
~~-'

"
back'
1_
.53
.56
.....
.73
2.26 ,...u.ft:.n.lMJDS IS -.-....ng
Its nearZDOO .53 .50 .50 .17 2.JlI tenn growth plans. Instead of adding 90
2001 ...
.sf
.51 .15 %.55combination food and drug stores and 50
C..1QUARTERLYDNIIBmSPAIIJCu
Full stand-alone drugstores in fiscal 2000. AIIlIIr.31JunJO 5.0.30 Dec.31 Yar bertson's now intends to open 55 combinadon stores
and
35 drugstores.
The
1996 .13 .15 .15 .15
.58 remodelling of existing stores, which often
~:
.~:
.~~ .~~ .~~
.~ provides a more immediate retwn on in1M :"
:71 vestment, Is being maintained at the 120
ZOOO.18 .19 .19 .19
store level previously planned. In all. over
CurT1!nl Liab.
'1"3'78l ~
3454
~NNUAl RATES Pat
Pas1 Est'd'l7."

I.r.i':

l1'li_

:18 :,8 :,S

(A) FIS:lII Y'* ends Thunday '*-Sf Jan.


31st dfollOWing I3lend.,..-.
(B) Based. ~ pRnIIy s!lanIs outst. thItIUgh
1996, basic 111997, and diIutMI !tMnaftBr.
c. 2Ul11. VI.- I..i1e ~
lilt. All ~
..-..I.

".1IaJ

Nmrt.-nngl
.. port due 8BrIy Dec. EJlCl nonI'IlCUII1ng losses: .92, 3;"93, 5j; '94, 31,; '98,
6j; '99, S1:~1: 1Q'OO,
2Q '00, SO.DC.
(CI Next dividend meetirlg BIW1y Dee.. Goes ex
fM1U11 INlI!iaI i5. ........,
Inn ..bfieM ID be

---=

next

spending
m1llton.

two-and-a-half

wlll

be

reduced

years. capital
by some $500

The grocery industry


has become
a
more competitive
battleground.
Complaints of "heightened promotional actlvity" are growing
more commonplace, and
some of the smaller chains (I.e,. JltneyJungle and Grand Union), seem close to
capitulating. Albertson's struggles are not
unique; virtually every grocer is having a
hard time generating much in the way of
idenUcal-store
sales growth.
A1bertson"s
stock
is untimely~
In the
near leon, ABS will be hard-pressed to
break out of its earnings malaise, espedally considering that it will reinvest a
portion of profits back into the business to
drl ve top- I me res uIts. La oking out to 20032005. much depends on the competitive
landscape. For now, Wal-Mart is content
to ftnetune
its Neighborhood Market
model and gradually roll out new grocery
stores; should It decJde to hasten the pace
of new store bulldlng, this would clearly be
to Albertson's detriment. In afl, this stock
Is only suitable for patient value Investors,
Brian L. Bugbee
November 10, 2000

Ibout.llln. 1611.Approx. div. ~yrnDRt did8s: ~ ~amp.ny'.Finl.ndld strength


StDc:k'l Pr1c:eS1ab11ity
Pib Grvwtb Ptrslltsinc:e
Eamlngs PrMidablltty
nIiIbIe .. is pwiIIed ~
.....-n rl any tnl... This~iun:,,"~-.nm~illltITIIlllSe.NIIp1
,
1
I',
: II:

1:0.";

TH[PUBl..lSI-I:RISNJTIU:~SI8lE}ORANY[RRORSl)R~SHERE
be "'IIIuluced. __
Cf ~
.., pi*JlL
Cf ~
InI,

the

Cf ~

..

~.

Fe~
10, May 10, Aug 10, Nov. 10.
c DiIIsSe~ ntiwl!llDneri plan availab!la.
(D) In mlOns, IIdjustBd for skJck splits.

--"'IIIJ

pt-.III"

*anrit,....,.

SIIlia:

II"

IftlUL

A+
80
50
90
II'.

[RECENT
IP~CE

ALCOA NYSE-AA

9.1
6.7

2.0%

10.1
7.6

9.8

1A

11.3
8.0

15.1
9.2

16.6
12.3

22.4
16.1

20.3
14.5

41.7
1S.0

43.6
23.3

rill'V"1 Pric. Range


2003 2004 .2005

..

'00

so

...
......
(.,.....
2'"
LOll' 45
l+IO%i
17%
Ins_r
~

32

11h

Decillions
J F A.
J J A
0 a :I a 1 0 0 1 a
3 7 II 1 0 2 :I 0 5

t.

..,

'"
,.

II' __ . "'l

./

20
In

1'1.1111

'2

11"1111111'
1'1"

II

I'll

'11 " 1,11 I "

MARKET CAP:

$21.1 bllb

(urge Cap)

CURRENTPOSITION,.

("'ILl

1119

ReceMibies

Inventory (LIFO)

428.8

Aa:ts Payable
Cul11lntUlb.

ANNUAlRATES Pat
llf~u-!II1
11YJ1.
SaJes
4.5%
"CashAow"'
2.5%
Eami'1lils
2.0'1.
OIYid..m
4.5%

Book Value

503.8

781.0

Put!a'd
'17
!5Y1"L
tD'IJ.'15

9.0%
B_~
15.0'% 13.~
041.5%
11.5%

2..0%

8.0'4

17.5~

13.~
17.5'1:

QUAIlTEJlLYSALfS($oI.I
Jun.30
Doc.3'

F.II

SeD: -

'I9T

3231

3432

'191
'199

JUS
3985

3SB7
4lI33

4052

2IIGO
2001

4531
WI

5569

3358
4109
6298

32!l8
4198

,_

133'9

15339
4253 '6323
W1 22m

i525 _
fT75 2WIl
CaIEAR.-GS PER SHARE A
Filii
enclar IlIIIr.31 Jun.30 S'~.30 Dec.31 V.r
'I9T
1119
2IIGO

.23
.31
.30
.48

21111'

1191

CaJendar

'196

,,,

NMF

TS\

21\

42\

22\

ness uniI, wIh 228 ClPIQbng .nd sales tx:Iti:lns

il 32 muntlies.

3"

28\

.30
.31
.32
.47
.12

.31
.31
.35
.42

.sa

.25
.30
.44

1.09
1.21
U1

AI
.72

1.15
2.111

QUl,RTERLYDlYJ)ENDSPAII8D

hi

1Iar.31 Jun.30 Sen.JD Dtc.31 V.r


.083 .1164 .083 .1164 .33

1m

.057

.063

.063

.063

'991

.1194 .094

.094

.094

.38

'199
2000

.:~:
.1

.'01
.125

.101

.40

.10'
.125

(AI_ ...............
__

.24

hurt by several
factors.
'Softening
demand from some of its major end markets, including transportation, building,
construction,
and distribution,
reduced
earnings by about 50.04 a share In the
third quarter. Higher prices Cor oU and
natural gas increased the company's energy costs by $10 mUlion through the first
three quaners of the year. Moreover, the
second-quarter
acquisitions of Reynolds
Metals and Cordant 1echnologies were
sllghtly dllutlve to earnings on a per-share
basis, reflecting the shares Issued to flnance the transactions. However.
Results should begin to improve heading Into Zool. ExclUding the impact of
higher energy costs, the company is on
pace to reach its target of S 1.1 billion in
annual expense reductions by January of
next year. as the quarterly savings rate
reached $23] milHon in the third quarter.
Fourth-quarter profits should benefit from
higher alwninurn
prices and seasonal
strength In the packaging and conswner
business. The integration of Reynolds and
Cordant Is also proceeding smoothly, and

17\ AlllttdslDNIIPraf

1n

management

has

increased

Its

targeted

cost-saving synergies. We expect the acquisitions to begin contributing to earnings in the first quarter of 2001.
Pending divestitures should also help.
In order to receive regulatory approval fOr
the Reynolds acqulsftlon, AA agreed to
divest Its interests
in three
alwnina
refineries and part of a smelter. And, due
to accounting requirements. the earn1.ngs
generated by these assets are excluded
from AA's inCOme statements. The company has an agreement to sen its interest in
the Worsley alwnlna refinery (or $1.5 bUlion The dealls scheduled to close in Jan~
uary 2001. and proceeds will Ukely be used
for debt reduction and stock buybacks.
These shares
offer good recovery
potential.
Following a strong showing in
1999, the stock has fallen sharply this
year, likely reflecting concerns about Integratlon risk and signs of an economic
slowdown. At the Current price, the stock
might be of interest to Imtg-tenn. value~
oriented investors, as we expect Alma's
restructuring efforts to provide steady operatlng improvements and greater return
on capital out to 2003-2005.
Gerard Feenan
October 27. 2000

(I~J; '97, 13f. Naf egs. reporl due md-Jan. ment dales about tht 2SII d: FaO., "11, Aug.,
EJi:l norwtlWIing gains (Ioues): '84, (7~);'85, e.tlyeps. may noI add m mial due to change 11 Nov. 0 Div'd reinvest. P" /IYlIiI.
38); .... 38; .&T. (4811;
(8llj); ~1. .....
out. (8) Nul tIiY"dmeefi1g about Jan.
inlang. In '99: $1445.0 mil, $1.96ish.
64~ '92, ($"'); ~~ (18);
,,~ ....
9th. Nmd ex date about.Jan 29th. Drld payD In mils.. adj. b s10Ck spIiIs.

2Q%

36% of klIaL 1999 deprwciIlDn raIe: 4.9%. Has aboul107,700.-no


pIoy8eS, 185,000 sh~.
FMR Carp. OWIII 10.9% rA comman sklck; w.li'1gtDn Mellllgemlnt, 10.3%; DIas. IInd dn. less
lhan 1% (2.()0 Pmcy). CmM.: P..,IO'Nd.
Pm.. & CEO: Alan
8ekja. In:.: PA. AI:Idress: 201 IMbeIiI St, PIIsbwgh, PA. 15212.
TeleplKd: 412-55J.4S45. Int.-net: www.alc::clll.am

~:;:=';:'~~~:::'==~':::::':':~~::::"==--":'::C:=::'::'::":=-=::"::=::':;:::::===,.....,.,.-_-I

DeblDue
Other

.,,~,

S,,,

Rfw's km prD:.pt1 moDtItr;, 1999: hn~icrI,


24%; ~5025. 1 48iifO 7307.0
1044.3 1218.9 1797.0 lng, 20%; distribulixl, 18%; all.mrun i1gDt, 13%; buildqllnd COI'tDuction. 13%; IUnina IIrI:l cr.TicIls. 12%. Foreign ales about
612.1 ~ 410.1
28&5.0
1611.9
2450.0 Irean1inas were
326fi' 3003.3 71.12.0 Alcoa's third-quarter

Cumnrt. Assets

CaJ.

47\

...,....wn

O1:her

.....

II3GIOO

381.6 313.7 374.0 I!!IUSWES$: Ab)a is the wonrs B'gest


lX"Ddueer.
2334.2 2364.1 3367.0 ShippM14,478.000 men: 10111c1I1ILWJWlI.l1lm 1999. Has 25 busi1880.5 1618.4 2785.0

Cash Assets

ICII~.

Camp.,," Fillncllf SIrIn~


Stocll" PrleeS1abllt)'
Pnc. Growth"~
lE.nll. P~cIatIIltty

A
55
75

35

To subscribe call 1800833-0046

AMER. GREETINGS NYSE-AII


I ,.~I

TIIWNESS
SAmY

3
m""
3 m1l1ll
4 _ .. Yl''''

H;gh'

Low:

10.2

IRECENT
jl'lllCE
,.7:

20..

13.3 I

LEGENDS

!I.o- C.!Ih ,..-

15.5

2 .2

16.6

4.7%

18 ~m
34.'
22.5

34.0
25.9

33.0
25.5

AO.1
27.4

30.5
23.5

............

t':ri ~. ~:=\ti~
.. ..,
~
..,.

D J

It

"

,.

20

....
12
J f--"";I;,I"'-.,,-f~';':'p,=~-~"--+~o....~=--------_._--+----+--+--+
,I'..".'!
-

. II~:.

::: .. 11 ,.g~~

41~~

.. Tot. RE1lRIIIIDD

l_tJlutiona.D.eJaJona
401..
lClZ1M
821290

32

24

000000200
000000000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

.. 1Iy

..

..-

111111

,,, , ,

,II"

... ,1

....
no

.,

lnakler Decisions

T.rget Prk:. Ran~


2003 2004 200S

24.1
15.3

100

AM'ITIItII

44.3
22.0

P 5h

TECHNiCAl
IfTA .as (1.lXl. MIrtd)
200U5 PROJtC'!",,!,_
Price

53.6
35.0

JQ2111

481~

1984 1985 1986 1987


14.42
1.46

15.73 11.15 18.56 19.~ 20.10 22.35 21.65 22.93


1.3D 1.76 1.97
1.99 22D
1.52 1.38 1.07
1.16
.93
!J2
.69
1.13
1.31
UO
1.55
.33
.33
..35
.38
.42
31
.33
.33
.65
.bI
.72
.94
1.",
.96
1.07
1.53
8.78
9.44 fD.39 12.05 13.07
7.50 8.16 8.51

1.18

27
.68
6.68
03.10

.""

.. .,.

03.'"

142
l.l5
1.9'

IlARKETCAP:'1.2 bilion (MiclCIIPI


CURRENTPOSmoN
1111 1m

Ca~~
r-~b~FO)

144.6

9.2"11

5131.

61.0

71.3

fflJ ~~ j~f

o:.,.ntory

359.2
259:5
437.7
1145.8 1100.7 1249.7
175..4 213.2
273.0
17.8 109.7
310.3
224.5
259.6 ~

CunvntAswts
Acds PlryBbIe
Debt Due

Other
CunwntUlib.

""i17J ~

ANNUAL RATES Pat


oftMviO*ltIj
1IYrL

843.2

Past

Esfd'l7'11
tD'U-'15

31.92 33.71 .wet


3.70 2.84 115
2.62
1.81
1.J5
.74
.78
.J2
.M
.79
....
19.49 19.41 tuI

".1,

".W

1."

/4.'"

132
14.
J4
JIl
2."
1~\
1554.0 1611.7
13.51 14.4'
45.5 48~
91.5 112..3
36..31038.0\
6.3\
6.7\
629.0 581.7
255.7 169.4
965.1 9525
9.7\ 10.7\
11.3% 11.B%
1121

27% 21"

/4.11

16.4 1.2
~7
.93
1.7\
1.9lI
1770.0 1868.9
15.51 16.21
SB.6 68.4
130.9 148.8
37.5\ 345\
7.4'
9.0\
4R3
5312
M.2
R5
1053.4 "SB.5
12.6" 12.1%
12.4% 12.8%
8.6%
9.0'" 9.3%

27\

14.4
.96
21\
2003.0
15.91
75.3
1502
33.81
7.5\
516.3
231.1
1235.0
10.!\
1U%
8.41

27% 27% 31'"

15.1
16.'
142
AI
.96
A'
21l'1o 1.7\
3.0\
2198.8 2205.1 2175.2
151\
11.81 131)1
65.9 67.0 84.3
176.9 188.6 119.1
34.8" 36.2\ 33.6\
B.1l'Io B.5\ 5.5\
506.1 728.1 5182
148.8 .(63.2
442.1
13452 '*.6
1252.4
12.21 111\
8.o"
13.1' 14.0% 9.5%
8.61
9.3' 10.1% 5.4%
ll% 29%
28% 43%

BUSINESS:Anwi:an Gnlstings Corponrtion iI the lIKXlfId-lmgesI


u.s. procIut8" cI greeli1g caas (65~ of 1999 5111851 AlSOmDits
gifbmlps and ICCl!!II5COIs {14%I, Ind other ilIIms (21%-i1cklding
c:andlBs, gftnnt I~
calandars, bab:m and lnt..... ops.) Also
bnseI CI1lnctn (Holy Hobbie, SIrnbIITy SIKn:ake,
~
Ill. 11.)Ac:qr'd:Gibson er-t., 3100.~
Aatra n.n&, Mil;

ear.

e,

Greetings
modest share-net

American
first

two

quarters

of

post a
this year. The

should

2000

(ends

Feb-

mo. 2575
2D01 "'5

715 755 2J5O


~
~PERSHAREA.
FdI
....

year.

=.v:....

E:.rrmgs

5.0% SYrL
.0%

9.5"

9.0"

ll-",

5.5%

11.5% 5.0% ,O.~


1~~

g:~ X:~

B~ 1I1Y~~';~~:.Ptr.
~
1";;~'F.~C'-'~~';~-7..;;;'i;;:;;:;'irl
1997 415.1 484.7 639.7 599.3
1991 487.9 479.7 638.4 599.7
'199 458.8 477.8 623.4 615.2
2DOO 595.7 493.7 IJIJ

2198.8
2205.7
2175.2

1I1V.31AUII.31ModO Ftbhr.

f7.5''F'I;;:'-''''''':<'-''7'ii-~'T.+';;';;-I
1197
161
1199
2IICIO
2101
~

.40
.44
.16
.19
.25

.17
.20

d.01
.01
.20

1.07
.73
1.16 .82
.81 .87
.as 1.15
~
1M

QUARlERl.'I'~_pwc.

L'r ."""'="'::-l"II",...",.3C!.1
-'J"'.."'.30
..... "S.=-""'' -JD0c.3=-'' l't-."

ruary

.17

.11

.17
.18

:;0

.20

.21

2ODO

.16

.17

.18

Earnings

in

the second half or 2000 should improve,


2.37 mainly reflecting growth in candles and
262 /!iftwrap.
1.81 The Internet
business
continues to
1.95
2,15 Jose money. 1his year. losses for the unit
are running at an annual
rate of $0.25Flln $0.35 a share.
This
is not overly troubling.
....'="I because the highly popular Web site is
.66 growing very fast. We expect losses here to
.70 be reduced over the next year. and then
reach modest profitability In 2002. as revenues expand enough to cover costs.

~=.~::~::~~ I:~:
',196197 .16

as a goOO perfonnance.

i'93

"".5'

124
.78
24\
2161.1
15.7"
64.6
167.1
3C.3"
7.7\
56U
219.6
1361.7
11.11
12.3\

2001) were s1I ghtly better the prior


years
respective
periods. The second
quarter would have been better, but for increased expenses associated with the acqulsltlon of a greetlng-<ard
competitor,
Gibson Greetings. and higher losses at its
Internet
subsidiary.
Amerlcangreetlngs.com. Furthennore.
an accounting
change shifted about $82 million in sales
to the thlrd quarter. All things consIdered,
we view the second-quarter gain of $0.01.
a two--cent improvement
over the prior

S"CsshF!ow"

/LW

1.f{

1.0
a1 143 129 127
.94
.98
122
1.48 1.19
In
20'
m 3.3' 2~\ 2"
CAPITAL STRUCTUREas of 5131.
1412.7
Tobl o.IIt $724.4 mi. DI III .5 Yrs $400 0 Id.
13.'"
LY Debt $414.1 mil.
LT II'Itarm $27.0 mil
422
(Teul mnsr. aMRge: 6.ax)
(25'" of cap1)
82..5
36.8\
5.B\
PenslonU.blityNontl
4841
Pfd'SflX:tNone
246.2
656.6
CammonSlock6UmiLs~D
(7S%ofCap'ij 10.3%
Indudes4.7ml.CIassBlhIreS
12.6%
126
1.17

25.15 2Ul
28.82 3DJ9
292
3.02 3.09 3.41
2.00
2.01
2..23 2.31
.48
.5S
.62
.67
.11
1.39 131
123
124
.95
1411
15.61 16.53 18.15 1/1.~

23.88
257

41.'5 SIleo por III'


tiS CuIl Flow" por III
115 EIninu... ItI ...B
.&8 Dlv'ds DKI'o .. 1II C.
1.1. CIp'5pohdO!gpor..
aJ:I BlIoU'" pI,.1I
"'..

g
_ A'1l... U".....
~
R_
pJf _
A'1l... 'Dh'dl'lIicI
Z515
.2S5I Wts(W)"

'5.'" 'I.'" Dtpod-\lmll

....
.. .
125
170 NttPrott(Srd\'
31.1% X.K InccnITu'01
UI ... PIoIt.....
7lJD
725 WarDiIlCap'(1nl1l)
W
S25 Lcma-TImtDtbl(SrdI)

,m

1.5%
S.5%
U~

41"

WJJ
578
.

1....
I...
Ultl
,.",/
''':,
_
1.11
32lII
19.11

W
235
)l",

UI
151
5M

,. Sl"'-_I~i

,...

.. n RllunlonTabIICIp'
11'"
11.5% RtUnCIIIstr.E~
11a%
l~
AmIned to CCll'llEq
11.";
32'1 AlDIY'dslDtHlProI M

WiIII'K*', 1lJ97.Sales DUlside of u.S., 19.5%cI '99 totat adv. costs,


3.5%. His Oller 34,000 employeeS. OIls. & On. own -4.2% r:J cunman (41% rI'des); C8pD1 GUan:l., 72"'; INVESTeD, 8.5%;
Bnlndes, 6.9%;CapilalRes., 7.4'10(5tUI ~).
Clmin., Pres..&
CEO: Mmy Weiss.: OH. Addr.: 1 ~
Rd., CIInIIIn::I, OH
441..... Tel: 216-252-73OD.
Web: www._cm,,8IIIings.com.

Profits should
accelerate
over
the
next few years. The acquisition
of Gibson
Greetings
should add about $0.50 a share
to annua I earnings, when full y lntegrated
(in 2002).
given
the large reduet10n in
duplicated
overhead. nus, combined with
lower loses at the Web unit. assuming it
reaches breakeven, wI1I lead to a SO.75 Improvement in annual share net. Then. the
recent 8t;qwsltlon of CPS CorpQl"Btlon
(gIftwrapr, along wlch continued growth In
AM"s candles and giftwrap businesses.
should result In the balance of future
gains. Still. the traditional greeting-eard
bUSiness in the U.S., a dependable, noncycHcal cash generator, is tmllke1y to grow
much as the market is mature.
This
issue
has wide
appreciation
potential for the 2003-2005
period.
Hilgh-yielding AM stock trades at B low
PIE ratio, despite prospects for good eamings gains over the coming 3 to 5 years.
We attribute
the
current
undervaluation
to the earnings contractJon in 1999. combined with increased
competiUon and stagnat1ng
volume in the U.S. greeting<ard
market.
Andrew

.p8ny's

T:. Berger

ftKabta.;

CAI FISCal yr. endIliIIt dlIy in Feb. off\:MkJWt1g,


(Z4~ FASB 121 charge: '95, ~7'. Next
Neri. 24th . Di'i'd reinvestnenl plan
CaL yr. (8) Prinwy egs. through "96, di there- egs. rep. due mid-Dec.ICI Oiw'dp;ryn18n1
(D) Cilia 8: 10vom per shin. (E) In mIIDns,
BftBr. Ext*JdM nIr VlIM (\oIeeS): 01 'DO, 41: dales: aboullhB 10th of" . , June, Sept., Dec. lld)Jsted fr:. std lpit. (F) Quart8rty egs. donl
Q2 '00, (~); '99, (44~ '98, (14f.); w, 1~;
Next div'd d8el;qj Int Od. Next ex-div'd d.1ilI equal ful)'U" due kl changes in IhS. out.
CI ztOl, ..... ld IWIIVIiHI. Ine. AI rWU 11!S8ftd. r am.r ..-.r is ,...
rn. _
~
III tie RIiIfIfe .., & p1IIIi*If IliIfIIIIIl -..TWIIies ell IlIJ' tiKI.
THf PUBUSt.:R IS 11)1 R[~E
lOR Nn ERRORS OR CMSSiONS HEREIiI.1Ilis ~
i5 sRIJ ra- ~
~,IICIIl~
inlem-llM. No..,.
iii lllllJ be ~
!tIJftIl fI ~
i1q ~
IBnric III" au.llIm. ~
.. ~.
~.,J
pi*ll ...IlitdItRc~
~
... fItIIUL

October 13. 2000

StNnglfl
S1Dc:1i: .. Prtc. Stabllty
Pnc. Growth PlirUlt8ftca
earnings PI1ddl.b11ty
I

finaneill

I '.

: I I:

B++
65
30
70
II

AMPCOPllT

H"h' I ".~
11.5I "'ll
4.9

4 _'" 'I1MJl
3 ,.,'"
3 ,,""'"

lIIE~
SMElY
TtCHNICAI.

Low:

20

3.6%

11 ~ro

9.1
5.5

10.3

'.3

11.4
7.8

'.1

f.tC.O
1D.O

'9.6
9.

20.'
11.1

Target Pric8 Rangt'

12.9

14.1

92

92

2003 2004 2005


50
40
32

~_~,enssOr

o.oaw..ts)
2110.... PROJE~N.f,,,,,

lJiir

9.3
5.9

LEGENDS
1.01 rtI'ltl fblrOp!ltl
..... :~PrQSlilllgll

RlJ, JQ

Pria
Gain
"'"" 30 (+'7'''''

IRECOO
\PRICE

NYSEAP

I"

RI'IJni

"""
;+10%',,%

'.11,,, .. ,

...

20

"

. 'II,

,:;I'

""1,

'

12
10

"

Insider Decision.

I
I,",,", "1J""

". L
'1""1 "" .1
F A..... AS01--+_-+~~!io-jLL:::jl,,t;~'q,--,-..::._------------+----t--+--+

.. ..,
0 2 2 2 2 0 0 2 2
__
000000000
....
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional DKlaion.
1a.1 Za-I sa2.
4.5
lilly
7
7
7 P_reerd
lihar.li
3.0 - ~
tI1Itt-d
1.5 - ~

:::'1 ..~ ~

11 '\..

../::
'.,

- ..

~"-=r:4

"

'" Tot. RE'T1AI'11aO

I
~

'.

1yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

.1.8
368
33.0

4.8
19.7
83.-4

f-

f-

IIC. 0J.45
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 cYA1.IIfLlEPIJIl
31.'"
43..
45..32 39.90 2920 29.16 22.89 22.68 23.12 19.67 11.16 11J9 16.01 16.90 1B.16 19.61 22.09 Z1M Z1Je 6IhIs-'"
1.59
1.72
I.BO
.62
.6J
.88
1.01 ,..
1.88 2.19
2.42 2.37
U,
151 "Cub __ s- '"
151
",.,
1..so
1.04
1.85
.58
.86
.96
d.3l
d.n
.34
.49
.94
114
1.49
1.64 1.58
1.55
till ElrNn&IJIII'Ih II.
2.50
.39
.17
d.19
.74
.JO
.3Q
J[)
.Ja
.28
.15
.10
.15
.24
:II
J7
.40
.
. Dtr'o.DIcI"d,..lh
.Sf
JO
.30
.30
.3ll
1....
20.13

126
20.14

.74
15.14

.7.
15.68

...
12.58

51..ll

80.8

19.9

23.3

,4.80

6.56

2.Q1I;

1.33

1.93

1.5'4 U~

.61
13.20
,.,.
16.6
126
2. f"i

~O~ Ul'

CAPITAl srRUCTURE.
of II3IMIO
Tall! Deb! $14.7 mil Duem 5 Yrs$H ml
LTDebl$1Uma
LTlrrfernt$1.0ml

.65

.74

.36

2>

13.54

11.&5

9.85

9.52

,.,.
6.6
.64
3.6%

'.51
.

olI.01i

,.,.

-.
4.0\

2172

221.4

190.3

10.BI' 10.0%
B.1
8.B
9.2

(8" of c..'~ 38.7~


12~
.. 0

PenskJn L11b1Dty None

PldStocll~one

28.4

..
OM'
493
27.8

129.7 113.5
ComrnonStock9,602,1l21shs.
(92%ofClp'~
.. al11I13IOfJ
MARKETCAP: $100 mlllon (&mill Cap)

CURRfNTPOSlTl)N 1111

Ca:-~

ReCBiYilbies
tnventory (UFO)
Other

II3UlI

16.3
51.1

35.5

4,1
107.7
9.2

AI:;d3 Payllble
Debt Due

=1'11

1.

33.1
35.0

CurTl!lnlASS81S

47.3
3.9
~
14.2

22.2
43.6
47.1
3.9
116.8
11.6

__

Uab.

~~

::~

-.
~:~

17.:~~==~=":::"-;;~':;:=:;;-:;::ista6Uity
ANNUAL RATES Put

~~u-m)
''Cash
Flow"
E8mIIgs

-- Value
8ocl6t

a:r

Est'd "17-'.

P.st

"1~% 5j~% 1Dr-a:


3.0% 22.5%

15.0%51.0%
1.S" '''''''
0.5%
8.0%

1Iar~~~~'

7.0"
4.0'1"

S.""
B.~
::

7.1'1.
7.11
4.9'

NMF
NMF
NMF

3'"

NMF

.93

1.,.

12.49

13.5,

.,.
10.0
fJ7
1.6%

9'"
9.'
.60
2.0"

,.,.
10.4
.60
1.7%

108.8
10.0%

113.8
12.0%

143.8
13.8'4

162.4
14.9'4

173.9
17.0\

1.26

' '.86

.,.
92
.48
2.5'

187.9
16.4'4

',l>

.,.
7.....
.43
3.4'

Cap' lipMdina s- '"


1tJ1 IIdv.tw,...
W!lTa

n.

A'IIAo., ... _

ra..

UII..
'.II

1.23
15.91

17.1'

"'~_
~_~

R*tIYtPlERdo
Avg Ann, Dfy'd~

r-

211.8
14.4'1.

2211

, ...
.15

2.'"

225 SIIII~

.,

14.5% ,...oft
B.3
62
63
5.7
62
6.7
7.'
,.
U
U ~~.)
d21
3.3
4.7
9.1
11.9
14.3
15.7
15.1
15.1
15.5 JMlPtoltIlrlllll
.. 2O.6~ 38.~ 352~ 35.0~ 362~ 33n
33.3% .u.w !UIl __
NM' 3.0'4 I.l~
63~
,,~
82~
U~
72~
.'"
""
45.0 39.9 68.5 67.0
730
72.9
Bl.3
783
15.' 15., W-a"",'111odl
27.3
1.4

12.6
12.6
12.6
14.7
1!.fJ
15.1 lClng.TernDlbl($nlll)
94J
912 103.0 112.f
119.7 129." 142.3 152.6
'15
"5 !Iv.-~
,,,.,
Nt.lF
3.6%
4.7%
8.'1
9.01
10.4'1. 10.4'1.
9.1\
&5%
1.51 RnxwCIITaIIICap1
NMF 3.61
8.1'4
9.91
11.11
no" 9.9'4 S"", J.I'S R... .,uJfI.E4titr
NI.lF
3.6%
7.2'"
8.7"
8.5"
8.6'
7.4\
1.5%
6..5i RelliMdtoCQIIIEq
NMf 52"
2l)\
111 12" 23"
.22"
25"
2ft
2ft AlDfr'cbJoNttPnlf

4.9%

f.>o

'u"""
Not_I...

1.1' 4.6,

15.11
, ...
U.
34,'"

.n
12>
1&.1

nJ
fUI

fD.n
U%
21'1

BUSItESS: Ampco-Pltsbll'gh ca.p. is (houQ,h its Union E8e:trl::: utity, chl!lmcal precessing, pIasb::s, aMI marhe deIense I1dumes.
S-.. sut.slliilry) pnrIiIIiJ II prodllalr d bged hiW08nell ~11OIs
Has 1,886 11111pby8es,1,136 lbcllhoben. "99 de!QC. m.: 4.5%.
b use i'llhe ftlel end.lUnrun iKMPs.1t is also ,.." ""'" h 115 Gabel. Funds, Inc. owns 19.8" ofcxmncn. Offian n Dnc:toni
AtrDfin,ButraIoAitlandlllg,ButflbPtrnp,HawCaSllIr1dltsiNs,
V,II" (3oW PD;yJ. Ch&imIn= Louil &nrn.I.n. PI'8sdInt ard
IIIId F.R Groa subla __ ) 110
ITIIIoIlllr d ai" and IquiI handling
C.E.O.: Rabat A. Pilul. lllCOl'POliltld: PA. Adli1ss:: 600 Grant
8quipmsrIt./XI prIaIIi;s ~
mschiw)' h the mnDudDJ,
S.... Su_ 4600, Pltsbugh, PA 15219. Tel.: 412-45fi-.f.fOO.

Ampc:o-Pittsburgh
remains a model of
In an unpredictable
Industry.
As evidence, this maker of steel rolls and
industrial
products continues to record
soltdly profitable results, in spite of the
tunnoll
in its core markets: its returns
on
equity are holding In the 9%-11% range',
and It retains a lalllely debt-free balance

heJp
2001
2000
Few

improve comparisons. Overall, we see


net roughly matching the estimated
tally.
profile-altering
moves are likely
over the next 3 to 5 years. Instead, the
company
wUl probabJy make incremental
moves In which It expands Its established
poslUons In steel rolls and air and liquid

~~~-=::l~
~~a:~al:=
~~ ~

:~f=~An~~~~t:

should be limited in scope. as befits this


,.
48..6 46.8 46.1 46." 187.9Such. stability
was again in ~vidence
now conservatively run enterprise.
'991
49.4 46.9
51.9
61.6 211.8 In the now-endlng
year, when Ampco Longteno
prospe<:ts are wen defined.
2lIOO
59.5
51.0
As noted. the capital goods provider will
_
W
58.8 51.5
51.D 51.J
58.' 221
225 UkeJy achieved a 12-month income figure
EMlMGSFERSHARfA
that was in line with the prior year's tally probably retain its basic conflguratian. So,
cu. I.tr.31 Jlln.30 SeDJODac.31:: on a modest revenue uptick. Behind both with the help of moderately better U.S.
-..tlr
this continuing consIstency and Ampco's and overseas economies and a measure of
'997
.39 .40 .il:!
.40 '49 stable outlook were the
slightly higher
stability on the currency side, Ampa> could
.49 .44 .34 .rr
1.64 backlog totals through me first three
post average annual earnings of 52.50 a
::
.35 .42 .36 .45 ~~ quarter.> of 2()(X).along With the company's
share over a several-year up cycle.
21101
'-Be ability to maintain healthy gross margins. This stock is a comparatively low-risk
QUARlBU.Y
Df;'I)EtI)S PAl)
We don't expect much change in 2001. way to play the volatile
steel eyele.
C.,
Full On the one hand. the company will get less The modest valuation and the solid base of
..... .,.31 Jun.31 Sop.31 Dec.31 v.... help rrom the economy, which likely will earnings make this good-yielding, albeit
.075 .025 .025 .025 .15 grow at a slower pace than in recent years. untlmely, issue a worthwhile total-ret.urn
1191 .16 .06 .06 .ai
.34 On the other hand. the further maturation
vehlcle for those seeking a stake in the
1999
therDaVYtlRoIi (a Irate-1(999 adCquisltlon) and dHepressed sKmall-caC'P,.mark~':..._be 2n 2000
2DOO .10 .10 .10 .10
set. ement 0 a aOOr ispute show d
arvey. S alz, 'Fh
IJf:f.'-'::1II
r ::I,
1117

d2.9

.IB
11.71

.,.
21.6
128
2.0%

.42
10.75
,.,.
16.0
1.05
1.~

40.8

43.'

41.6

48.4

1. fr ~ ~ ::
~=:nn :nn

173.9 orner steel-related

issues.

:~

Ililboof.lan.

5/JlQs hn.IQ1l1996,
Iben baSk. l..DssM.: '86, 14.66; '87, 37,; '88, $3....,; '90;
12. D"""d ~m
s ubon:IiI.-y aedib: '87, 1&;; '89. $1.28; '91, 1~; '92, $1.34; '93, $1.01; "96, 5. 31,1.17130, Juty 30,
20; tIO, 37j; 111, 9j. UnllSllll gllns: .&t, 36; ~
eamllgl.~
is dUBlB. Jan. (II) Nell
In milDns.
'85, 19J; '89, ~; '92. 3f; '94, 35f!; '91, 24j. dNifend IlWII:ng IS abOUt Mil". 16. GOes ex
1102CXlll. va., \iIe f'ubIshtIlI. lilt.. AI ri:IIts resII'WeIII. fll2llll
IUlIDI
is aIItIftd from _
IIItiewd kI be r8iIltM .-II is ~
......
THEFUIl.IStR ISM)} RfSf'OHSBU tORMl'rfJlRORS OJlCMSSOHSHREIL J1I!J~&sft:Iy
b ~1IIIIl.n"""Q"'''''''
IIIf ll'-J"
~
*ftd lI"""-i1
rIfI ...... dea.ic 11" .......
II"lIMdb ~
ar ~..,-piIIIId
II" IlI!Id/I:IIic ~
~~

!!alai:
31.

eel

Jim~:

IIIf ..., DId..


iIUrnIIll5e.lIopll1
senicell" paUL

~omJJUY'l.FinII.cIII
Stock's I'riceSbbllty Struglb
Pr1cII G,"",
Pwsi1teftc8
Eamlnp Pr.cIdalllfty
I

I "

: II:

B+
65
45
35
II,

ANGELICA CORP. NYSEAGl


TIIE1J11[SS

3 ....,&'Ml

SAFUY

3 ""Janlll

TECHNiCAl
RlA

High:
Low:

PricI

l;:r
33.9
27.0

40.3
29.6

9.3 ~ro10.0(=~:li:i)I~J%0.69 ~ 3.4%

40.0
22.3

"'.4
22.5

29.4
24.5

27.5
19.4

3.""",,,,

0,0 ... '"


SlIa1ed"

PRDJECTp~.
Ann' TuIII
G*I
Rnn

.'

."

"

'iii

zaa-

25 P.-e-nt
."Irl.
tradMf

'.0
..~
3.0

1yr.
3yr.
5yr.

:-It.1ltr.
J.!IIlUII.n

~'V:"
07
4.5

19.1
83.4

-47.8

-44.5

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199& 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 o VALIJIUlEPIIl.IH:.
D:H5

28.96 31.34
2.49
Z56

MARKETCAP: '75 mlUlon (Smlll Clp)


CURREJiTPOSJTDN
1111
1_

'.

--tfth-r.I
~

~ti

1TiT1Til'i1D!'Y

% TOT. RE1URII11111O

. . ..

44.55
33.03 35.26 39.n
2.3l;
2.68
Z11
3.00 3.'9
1.16
1.&4
1.11
1.85
1.19
2.06
2.37
1
$
.,
.10
.73
.n .B4
E1
1.11
1.06
1.81
....
''''
1.46
11.33 12.55 13.n
104.95 16.09
11.36 18.92
931
911
919
iOJ
111
14.7
141
131
12>
12.7
1.01
1.06 1.00
~
1.10
.95
.94
2.7\
25% 2.3% 2.1'
3.1% l0-4
2.&'
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE.or 1012M10
413.6
Total Debt $89.0mil. D_1n 5 YrI $65.0 miL
12..9'.
LTDebt$86.3m1. lTIrrt.-t$8.0mil.
10.3
(LTirtemleamed:2.3x;klIalmnst
22.1
cownge:2.2J::)
(.W%arc.pO 38.5'
LeaB, UncaPftaincl AnooilJ mAti!!$8.1 nil
5.31
134.9
Penaoa lUbilly None
57.8
PId ..... Hone
115.7
CommonStock8.637,268shs.
(66%oICap'~
10.1%
uol'lI1J1K1
12.61
8.1%
1CU2M111

351

046.64 041.53 41.01 51.85


'.02
310
3.03 3.2]
2.43
1.50
1..23 1.44
.89
.92
.93
.sc
1.41 1.",
.91
1""
20.0
20.88 21.13 21.51
14.7
.94
2.511,
434.5
13.8%
14.8
22.1
37.9%
521
100.4
80.5
1903
9.5%
11.9%
1.6%
3~

19.3 20'
1."
'21
3.21. 3.7%
43ll.a 427.1
11.21 10.6%
16.0 1U
13.8
112
38.1:1-438.3'
32"
2.6"
161.1 151.2
78.2
1Z.3
1891 192.0
6,5% 5.5%
7.3%
5.8%
2.8"
5',

5328
3.02
1.08
.95
...
20.73

53.58
.88
.96

57:J1
VI
.B2
.96

,$

""

20.13

18.91

va

56.7ti
3.02
.99
.B6
1.00
19.12

53.36
2~
.61
.96
.86
18.84

181
22.'
23.8
1.10 ,.51)
1.49
3.6% 3.~
4.6'
412.8 481.0
4892
10.4% 9.4% 8.6%
18.9 11.8 16.9
13.1
911
8.0
38.5, :sa.5" 38.0'

2."

1~.7
69.1
196.7
6.1%
6.6%

2.0"
181.1
100.1
189'
04.8%
5.2%

1.4%

2.3%

.6%

761

&51

881

23.5
201
22.0
1.35
1.05
117
5.0%
4.8% 1.'"
52&.5
491.6
462.9
8.'%
B.",
1.4"
17.3 11.3 16.6
7.5
8.9
5.3
38.DI' 38.0% 31.0%
1..41
1.8"
1.11
163.0
142.0 136.1 141.1
97.4 96.1
90.9
81.9
1891 114.1 165~ 163.'
04.3'
04.4% 5.1%
3.7%
4.21
4.3%
5.4%
3211.
Nt.lF
NMF
.1%
NMF

1.6"

'09%

11~

96"

HMF

sue

5*&perllh A
'Cdh flow" ~ III
.f.5
EnIp .. IIIIII
AI
Dif'cfs OId'd pII' III C
1.15
O~'"
11.45 .21.45 Boat.Yatutperlh D
0
~ ~ _ _
A.O An.
~ _""
R_
PJf _
AvgAnnHh'd YiIId
..
..., 5*1~
A
~
m nn..il-1I111in
11.11 1U DIpIIC:i~(_~~
7.G
U NIIProIIIInlIII\
37.3 37.'" IncarMTII....
,""'
US; Met PrufH
151'
1511WartdnIlClp'ISnlll)
W
I5.d Long.TIRIOIIl(W')
115
171 ""...;;;,'1 ..
.(.,5%
5.~ RIbnOIlTalllc.p,
.f.D'K
,UI, RlturnonShr.E~
2.DI
J.!% RrlainldtoCcnEq

51.1.5
J.JI
Uti
.3Z

or......

-..r

1";

55S

J1S

71.7.5
tlg

1.1.5

1.15
2....
101

,,~

.IJ
tft
57!
UI
ZU
111:1
31.'"
131
151:1
W
190
6.ft
1.0%
5.0%

,.II

AlDt'dsIllINlPni

~a:.n

BUSNESS:
AngIIica CorpcotDn pnMjes 'mtiIe renla! and
BInljy MIYi:e. to hullh-care i1s1iUDns (50% of '99 sam, 61%
of cp. proI'ltI); rnanufacl1nlllOO rnon.ts unlfonns for vwDJI no..J
tutions InIl busnmes
24"): openIt_ I nItIlnai chili'llll
rtltail unibm IInd IhD8 -.:.res (19%, 15"). End-use ITIII'ats by
1999
conl'ibulon: 701li h&aIb tervi:es: 2'11. hospllaity; 9'"

IXhllr SIlIVice indllSb'e. '99


1ft: 7.9%. Est. plant 1ge:
9)"*S. Has 8,100 .-npt,yees, 1,750 shanlhDlders. 0I'k. & do.
own 1.6% of cnrrrnon; FinI Pd"IC, 18.0%; o..nsional Fund,
...
& EO
8.", (.we proxy~ Cl'II.innan,
C:
Don W. HubbIt. Inc.:
MO. Address: 424 Soull Woods Mil RaId, Cbeslerfitkl,
.. 0
63011-3408. Tel: 314-854-3800.1nt8mr1t WWW.lnglica-<:orp.crtn.

AngeUca has earnings


headed in the
right direction.
The largest divislon. texANNUAlRAlESP..
Put Est'd'l7"
tHe services. has been reading the way,
lIfct.1gl(plr~1
1"....
r-..le>tering
a nearly 90% Jump In profits
Sakls
4.5% Un.
2.5% 1D'I3-'15
4.5"
""&-'
"ClIShFIcw"
-.5" -3.0% B.O~
dwing the October quarter. 11le competiEatmgs
-8.0% -10.5% 12.5" tlve climate there has improved constderf:lMjends
2.5"
.5'"
Hi
Book Value
1.5%
~2.0%
4.0"
ably tn the past year, as an aggressive upN"~r'''''~-''
start has assumed a much lower proffie tn
-.,' ...... ~
-.,
bidding for accoWlts. 11lese operations are
8
".Per Jul.P.r.Oct. JIJI.P.r
also benefiting from efforts to tlghten con1!l17 127.4 129.2 132.8 131.1 526.5 trol of working capital and make better
1111 128.6 1232 121.6 118.2 0491.6 use of automation
within
Angelica's
1199 121.1 115.8 116.6 100.4 462.9 facilities. Meanwhile, the manufacturing
2DOD111.5
112.2 111.5
112.7 120
116.9 115
11U _,WJ
segment has also been able tD widen Jts
lDD1
""'"
EAR*l5 PERSlIMEU
~
margins. thanks to improvements In Its
:~. hr.'" Jul.P.r Oct.P,rJ.Ptr ~
Canadian operations and increased sauce~~~~~~~~~~~'I--",=,-i
ing of product from OVerseas.
1991 .22 .14 .25 .'8
.82 The sales oudook Is slowly improving
1.
.26
.20 .31
.22
.99 in the text:l.le-services segment.. In the
,.
.29 .15
In
.10
.61
2IIaO
.18
11
.23
Z3
.15 August quarter, this division had its first
200'
.2J
.24 .2f
:11 UD positive year-over-year sales comparison
sInce 1997, and we look for that trend to
~r
~f':~P~t
::.~ slowly gather momentum. So Car this year,
l.!!~~~~~~~~~~~~;..j new business signed up has exceeded lost
1191 .24
.204
.2A .204
.96 business by about $] 5 mlllion annually.
1997
.204 .24 .24 .24
.96 Notably, these operations are having more
1191 .24 .204 .24 204
.96 success getting hospitals to outsource their
1199
.24
.24
l'
.96 laundry
services
to Angelica. Hospltal2IIaO
.24 .24
.24
.08
.08

operated laundries represent a sizable op~


portunlty for Anaellca. accounting for UP"'
wards oC 4096 Of the health-eare
t~e
services market. However. desplte the cost
advantages of OUt50urclng. it has been a
tough sell for Angelica to get hospitals to
close down their in-house operations.
The retail
division,
which accounts
for about ZO% of sales. has thus far
falled to partidpate
in the
profit
recovery. TIlis division.
though, appears
poised Cor stronger results now that it has
lapped
last year's prlce reductions. 11lat
strategy helped boost same""5tore sales. but
It took a heavy 1011on margins.
Angelica shares look inexpensive
re1ative to our outlook for double-diglt
earnlngs galns through 8scaI 2001 (begins January 28. 2001). However. for the stock to
ccarnrnand a higher pr1ce/",""",,",fn..-,ratio.
we
_.~_
think the company musl stlll demonstrate
lts ability to profitably grow Its businesses .
AH told, we consider this equity to be best
suited for investors focusing on 3- to 5year total returns. For the year ahead. Jt Js
pegged to keep pace with the broader market averages.
Robert M. Greene. CFA December 15. 2000

ca.r~
Rec:ervables
~
(FIFO)
0Iher
CumllltAstletS
Aceta Payable
DebtOue

=111

16

12
10
8

.....

1984 1985 1988 1987 1988

20

u_ - --

g g g 8g g 8~g

~~~4aJ:
26$

to

II,

......

o.cIalons
Q"
1Q2.
22
15

Target Prtc. Range


2003 2004 2005

10.9
. 3

32
I

I,..tlutiol'llli
.. ..,

19.4
. 7

rfassiJn

i~

~ (j~~l

245
14.1

23.6
15.8

50
40

Inskl.r Decisions
J".A.JJAI
000020000

.. ..,

25.1
16.1

LEGENDS
!iD I ([:.stl fu.Op stl
...
R~
~
StlrIqII

.lO 0.00 .. MIlkS}

-m-3-45

30.4
22..0

LiIIb.

8.9

15.7

22.4

51.2

55.7

56.6

88.6
44..7

24.6

80.0
37.9
189.3
23.5

5.8

3.0

"'""'19f.i

65.5
38.1

2iJ2]

-m sa.
24.6

2.7

Eo

(3'' ",

(~c:..;I)'8lW
ends mal $;rU11ay II JanlliWY
(IIn (1Dss) '91. 21., '95, (95I, '97, ($1 51).
paynent dnls: .I1.n. 1, Apr. 1, ~1 1, OeL 1.
ComPMY"1 FIndCIII StrMgdI
of
'ng calendar yesr. Fisc:a11991 & 1997 Nu1. elWnll'1gs Illpor1.dult mil-Mlrctl
(Dllndudes inlllngibles. In "99: $5.8 milion,
S1Dcrs 15rice Stabllty
motllnlll" 53 weeks.
eel NQI o'ivifend meeU1g abotJl:M.m 1st.
671share.
PricI GrowUl"~
(8) DikrtId MTIiIgS. Exdudls ~
GOes ex-cljy'dltout MiIItt1 15th. Approx. div'd (E) In mMJns.
~E.ml. PMlctlbllty
CI 20X1. 'oUe I.ilI! ~
lilt. All riIIIl5 teSI!'I'Jlf. rlClllli' l1li_1
is oIDrIed rn.n ~
MiI!IN to fie l1IiIbIe .... 5 IJ'D'ilIecf IIiIIIDIII ~
01 .., tilll'.

TH[ PU8UHR
!SHOT Rf'StaOtfSIll[lORNf"t
I RRORS OR OIIIS9ONSHERW. TIIiI.~5sIdJ
IIIr 5Utnaiber'~ ....
Q11 tomc:iIL .lJnIIIlI5e.fiI0pltl
I

I'.
II,
d I ..., tit npalltaIIL ..-ca II" ~
ill ..,. pdd. I!RcnriI: a chr fall\. II" USlllIar ~
II" ~
.,
~
deartric: pdIIt;IIica, s.a'IIke II" pudIEl

8
55
5
50

eadl

,
II

lRECEHI
IPRICE

BARNES GROUP NYSE.B


TECHNICAL
BED.

JIll

......

,.""".,Ann'! T""

13.3
9.8

15.3

12..

20.7
11.7

30.'
19,8

34.0
21.3

30.0
15.3

2003 200. 2005


no

~_

-.. . .

.....-.

28
l!Z7~

r.rg.t Price Range

Irt~SSlClII

',

IQJ..

22

4.6%

20.3
12.0

.....

la-I Percent
32 .... ,....
tnIdec1
~

--=

.. TtJ't RETURJI MIl

DKislone

~IIS

~,

No
Shad~d" iIlbIes

i~

0 0 0 0 0

Instilutionlll

f'I"a !.Irengttl
4191

3-b'-1"

PROJE~NS

DJfM"_JJA
000002001
000000003

II'"

... : R~
Oplions.

~
~~ ):={
lnalder Decision.

_SIll

1~:~

11.0
10.0

orro
YlD

LEGENDS
6.0 I D:15hno.Op '"

(I.oo .. 111aM)

~5

..,
~

1~:~ '~:~

3 ~!l! 5111!11
3 RW:ll P/lMII

SAfm

r~; l~~T

3 RWlll~

Ttm.IIESS

RELAlM 068
18 ~Tl) 92 (Iril'l:115)\1
W.dl]JIPfRATl).

".0

1yr.
3)'1'.
5 yr.

Ji!IIIIIJI!!

:La

s:,.
-7.9

15.4
25.2

-3J0.a
54.3

97.e

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992


22.87
22.96 28.18 28.B3 2B.09 2J1.94 28.89 2834
1.47
.84
27
.62
6.03

1.55

1~

211

2.01

1..Q2

1.02

28
.'l3
.38
.84
.96
1.38
6!11 6.42 5N
1
19.1r 1
8.4
102
12A
11.1
.78
~
.84
.76
18~
l.~
11\
12\
CAprrAl STRUCTURE.ofll3lWO

.40
129

.16

.86

1!2
!T
.47
1.00
&18

6.78

ill
1.01
. 0%

DIMIn 5YrsS75.0m"
$14.0 rni.
(LT i'lterBs1 limed: Ux; ilia! intfnst CO'I8iIge:
4.5x)
(53% of CaP')

LT1m,",

1M... , Uncaplblllzed Anllll'" RtIlWIs $6. , nil

Pen.ton LilbllttJ ~
PId Stoek None

Cclmmoft

Stoct 18$J,tWsfrs.

"_11-"'1
Solos

........

"Cash Aow"

Oivid.-xls
Book Value

(47" 'l'Cap'9

IlARKET CAP; $325 mliion (Small cap)

ANNUAL RATES

1M
.74
5.1%
"5.1
112~
"'~
16.8
43.9%
115
91.4
96.3

128
.82
U%
5:15.7
11.4~
232
15.9
44.8"
l~
103.0
78.4

1.18

1.51
.31
.47
.87
5.01

.18

.86

1.65
S,SS

1.82
6.54

1.69
7.85

10.8
.71
U"
1692
1~61
23.7
20..3
40.1\
15\
88.3
70.0

9.
.65
3..9%
592.,
11!%
28.8
27.5
39.5"
4.6~
95.3
10.0

10.0
.63
3.1%
595~
13.81
28.6
32.6
31.1"
,."
109.5
70.0

11.1
.92
15\

Total Debt $271.3m1.

LT o.bt S230.0 mil.

&91

211
.87
.47
1.03
H9

201
~2
.47

~~
~~
11.3~ 115~
5.5"

5.3%

:n9
45.1
2.06
268
. "
U~
528.1 50U
5~
7.1~
23.7 23.1
5.5
4..
21.~ 47.8%
1.~
.9%
93.5
87.0
70.0 70.0

1.Ell
8.97
.1
11.1
.78
2.5"
6427
14.8~
21.1
40.04
37.3%
6.3~
113.1
50.0

1. 4
9.51
1
11.7
.71
H%
6"2
14.8\
21.4
.22
37.5"
&5\
106.9
51.0

3~:
4.8\

1~~~ 1~~~: 1~~~ 1~~:


19.'~ 21.3\ 2O.7~ 22.4\

1~~~ ~~:
22.4\ 15.8\

NW:

NMF

10. "

15.01

1111

15.1%

1.2>
fUll

Ii....

5~
59~

13.2"

p.,,"

1.35 Cop' SponcIin<j


11.15 BookYllulPM'th c

cnraon
II
14.1 ~~
... _ A'llAn,
.82
-: ~~
.*tIft PIE....
3.6%
- ~
AVIIAIln1lh'dYllld
622.4
745
115 ... ~I
122~ 11'"
IUI ,o-oi".,
30.6
JU
4.., 00p1ddaI11otII1
28.6
31.11 3!.11Nll.ProItISmll\
33.0'10 29-'" 2S.9 .....
TuRRl
4.6~ till
till Not _.....
103.2
125
1.5l1WortingClp'nn_
1.40.0 2J
1. Long.llnnDIbt ($nS)
1.44
9.58

7.81

,0.:
Il~
fll.5%

1...
11.15
1US

,u

..,
3.31

H5

,_

S1J
47..
3101
01
2CIll
3111

tQ: ::.,~=~,
,:
"'SIu.E....
17.51 ......

1D,"", RI1IIned to Ccn Eq

1151
',J%

BASSETI
FURN. NDQSSET
I
I
4 _ .. " ...
H;gh;

lIIEIJIIBS
TECHNiCAl

~........

BETA .10 nllO. MarUI)

2O.~

165

15.1

s.itl ~\
(;1'5%
+45%

PrkI
30

'li!f!l

2'2

16.9

. .-

RIbn
%4%

20
Insider Oee.lDn,

3-fo<

S1!13

oc.;:.., __ s

2003<1. PROJEC1IONS
AIm' 10lil

....
:':'
....

3_ ....... LEGENDS
!l.oJ"'tII~F __ pS/l
- . RliIM Prte ShngIl
3 ..... .,"" .l.for-2~
un

wm

ing

21.~

LOW':

I~coo
PRICE
ModIoI;IU'i ~r'rrtE
P~ RATIO,0 66 IMl
YUl
5.7%
14 P~RATIO 9, 2 C..

.- .

14"

352

..... 0

37.3

19.5

27.5

25.3

24
22
5712

~I

20
211

25
28
51211

5432

',,1"1,1'111011

"

,..
I~'"19B9

."

Receivables
~8lltory (UFO)

14.4
592
41.3

(81" orCBP'~

202

Oo""""

..... 7

LilIb.

ANNUAL RATES

Pal
1UrL

...... U-"',

8m.

E.rni1gs

Dividends

Book Value
E'"

1999

llIDD
2lID1

F1-'
T..,

>I27J1lO

.5
70..
50.,

--

--

25.3
50.
46.'
Past Eat"d'l7'.

..... ........
..""

A'1I'1
110.3
98.1
88.B
91.2
85.0

8.5"
7.""

."
~""
F.,

QUARlBlLTSAWII"'"
Feb1B M.,'I
109.8 113.2
98.~
98.3
99.8 1017
95.0
92.4
97.1
. 0

15.1
146 ..
2'.3

30.'

0.6110 -1.0%
0.5%
-01."'"
1.0"'- -6-"'"
3.0"'1.5"'2-"'"
05"

"Cash Flow"

'198

-MJ! ~

Other

CurT8nl

I'"
6.7
64.7

50.'
15.7
22.8
14I'f ""N3

CuIl1ll nI. AS!IIIls


Acda payable

1191

,,-'

110'1-30 Y.. ,
113.6 446.9
391.6
1028
102.1 394.~

t~t.4 3111
10$
:JS5

EARNltGS PER SHARE A

E"", flll1B

1991
1198
1199

llIDD
2001

.....
CaI-

1198
1191
1198
1199

.11111111~,

- -- - --

, -- -- -

,....

"..

Ihy 31 AulJ-II 1IoY.3lI


.38
.26
.4G
:0
.43
.33
.38
.29
.39
.34
.40
.35
.39
JI
.38
.31
..0
AI
Al
AI
lIIIARTBII.1IlNIlBIOSPAI) C
Mar.31 Jun.30 Stp.30 Doc.31
.20
.2lI
.20
.20
.411' .20
.20
.20
.20
10
.2lI
.211
.20
10
.211
.211
.2lI
.211
.2lI

FIsaoI

Toa'
1.31
1.42

1.49
1.52
US
F

Toa'
.60
1.00
.60
.80

244.3
B1\
82"
.BI
90'1

--

255.1
1.2"4
111
~21
~2\

--

213.B
9.B\
9.8"
6.4%
34\

--

2895
9.0\
9.0"
5.0"
44\

--

32

24
20

18
12

'0

35.93
2.31
1.63

34.41
UO
1.39

.53
21M
1J.'"
16.3
109
3."
~90.B

.14

.so

.so

2210

341~
1.18
1.31
1.00
.93
20.01
20.1
1.16
3.8\

--

--

1915
6.3"
6.3"

2611
6>\
6.51
1.6%
161

~.'"
--

29BS
7.1%

1.71
3.9'10

~9%

2.1%

snr.

30-85
U1
1.42
.80
1.l5
20M

1289

13."

".
1.10
3.3\
%0.1
'.2\ 3.'"
6.3
M
22.9
18.5
24.0\ 17.D"
. 1"
169.5 164'

2951
B.'"
0.'"
4.6%
'61

. . .' . -- ..
'.
'.

1 ".

... ........
..,.
""'" '5."

5".

3),5

446.9
2JI
61
17.1
3.1\
35\
152.6

BUStlESS: 8UW1t1FumibJte Industries, In~ III1I1Jfat:t1es a WIde


rallgll of bedroom, dining nxxn, Md living 100m foolUII. Aho
vamll! 1m of oc:casOnal chars, tllbIes, Will una, Bnd

201
1.05
2B\

Xl0

3.94
21.15
1209
1~.6
.93
3.1%

1DO
2110
11.00

391.6 394.~
'.3\
'.3\
B.~
6.9
18.6
1M
27.9% 3'5\
U%
04.6%
79.
99.0
-- 18.0
255.B
2649
1.0% 6.6"
7.01
1.0\
3.1%
3.1"
561
56\

-19.1

-42.

252
915

>-----

2001 "YALUE LIIE P\Il IjC. 03-05


.UO ~pII'lh
A
Wll
145
155 'Cuh Flow" "" sh
US
US
'.1:1
1.1' e.nI!t;l per th

32.61
2.18
1.49

.so

" TOT. RETURIlIIIDG

3".

."

MARKET CAP: 5175 million (small C.p)

T..,

~.

ha~

Common Stock 11,772,8lIO 5hs .

F""'"

"I

PerQnt 1.0

--

e;.:-~

Target Pric. Range


2003 2004 '005

PId Stock NoM

...

11.1

....

1985
1988
1986 1987
29.89
26.11 26-19 30.60
1.n
2.48
205
212
lA2
1.11
1.96
lAl
1.41
'1~
.61
.12
.43
.64
.56
.51
.~1
.31
.89
A6
1611 15.82 16.6B 17.17
".32
15.58
15.60 15.14 15.52
1~3
9.1
11.
17.8
15.8
1.35
.90
.93
111
1.06
31\
3.9% 2.9\
23\
26\
CAPrTALSTRUCTURE asof sm.

172

15.4

1111'1'

25-S6

CURRENT POSIIlJN

25.0

15.3

.'

1990
1m1_1m1~1~1~1_1_W992_
3O.2B 30.'2
21g;) 32.93 3451 361~
1.80
1.92
1.83
244
2~1
2.4G
1.23
1.33
111
1.85
1.19
1.15
1.07
51
.53
.1B
.64
.60
.56
M
.43
.11
-"
11-29
16.89 17.72
lB-99 19.99 20.96
, ... Z
,. ...
".40
....
16.1
1,.
1. 2
19.
165
112
1.Il2
J6
AS
1.16
1.10
3.6% 2B\
2~\
21\
2.1\
5.'
m.1
~.6
.73. SOJ5 510.6
7.81
11\
6.6\
5.7"
Totil Debt $50.5 mlion DIM In 5 YJS S50.5 milon
1.9
a B.5 9.0 B.B
LTInternt $4.0 milian
LTDebt $50.5 milon
20.0
lB5
26.1
25.9
25.0
(Teal irillresI:.-ned: 7.01)
25.9% 251\
2951 29.'"
2821
(li1l 0/ Csp'Q
P.-Ion Uabllty None
<5\
<5\
5.6\
6.1\
~.9'10
162S 1126
1565 168.4 163.6
1984

34.0

no

JlD,lF.AII,JJ
002000001
000 0 0 0 0 0 0
000000000

.... .- ...

315
21.9

40

..

InatitutianaIO.c:I.ions

21.6

'.'

--

--

28.3

20.1

111"1,1

~lHJn

30.3

.N DWd' Dlcf'd pII' III

:12-'"
t711

"'"
"

..

Il'
2A

1....
1.5"
.l2ll

TJIl
IUIJ

--

.......:
;;; ~
3IIl
3.1"
'dO
18.1l

...,

ClI!!

1.511 Cap1 Spoedina "" III


20UI B.en .... "" III
aD
'd
'1lMn'IPIERrio
_PIERdo

tV5
~11~
.75
4Jl1

AV; Ann' OIY'd YIIId


3S5 _11niII"

...,

'-'"

""

Ull
19.5

IdO ~(
ll0 INI PnlI1 ... ,
J1.#'1t IncclrH lu AIJt
~-'"NdPnlIl .....
lDIJ W_aCap'II~
Il. 1.lItt1... - /lid)
m SIll. Eq .... ,lnlIli
~ Rnxn lln Total Ctp'
R_
... SIw:!~'"
.-'% RI1IInId 10 Con Eq
SIll AI DiY'dl1o NIt PtoI

12.1

31.'"
till
110
".0
2M
1.'"

U"
'-'"

1.'"

44ll

upIIob;t.-ed '1ftJitn. The CDrq:l6ny opcnll!s '" plllIt5 iJ 5 stat.


Products am IOId to dea!en ttfOUgh corrmissu-t lIilII rwprasentnves, and 52 kensed ItDr8!L. 1999 de~
rat8: 3.1%. Has

.bout 4,700 .-np~;


2,400 IhllBhoUn.. 0fIian & OActtn
own 7.3% of conmon, uclIdhg 7.5% hnl b ~
IlrIft.
mellt; L.azMl FIBM, 9.0%; [)iqnsm.1 Food, 5.04%;Rop & Assoc., 5.0% t3'OO Proxy). ChilimI!In:P8uI FubJ. CEO: RoC8ri Spim8JI, Jr.lnc..: VA. AddrllSS: 2045"Ill St, 8....
VA 24055. T_
phone: 540-629-6000. InWnet: www.ba..nl'wnll.n.CO'I\.

Bassett
Fun1.iture's
third-quarter
earnings feU short of our expectadons. The company recorded share profits
of $0.37,
a nickel
less than we expected,
but still a penny above the year-ago
quarter. That was. in part, due to sales
growth of 3% (5%. pro forma for dlveslltures). Management attrlbuted !he lowerthan-explXted profit to increased materials
costs and lowered plant efD.dendes. One
bright spot In !he quarter, !hough, was
that
losses
at
1be Laddin
Group
(TLG-Bassett owns 51%), a retail operalion. are shrinking.
We have cut our fiscal 2000 and 2001
earnings estimates (year ends November
30th). Our share-net estImate
for 2000 has
been reduced by eIght cents, to $1.52,
since the current OOSt and efficiency dimculttes wl1l likely continue into the fourth
quarter. AddlUonally. we reduced our 2001
estimate by a dIme. maInly as a result of
industry conditions. Still. Bassett should
be able to cut costs by way of recently announced headcoWlt reductions. And we
expect TLG to be modestly profitable next
year. due to the Increased management
focus and posltlve recent trends .

Long-tenn prospects are not exciting.


The company pays Out about CXle-half of Its
earnings as dlvidends. Whlle this ~des
far a heal!hy dividend, It limits
elfs
growth potential. sInce the oompany is left
wI!h limlted funds for growth. Also. as
Bassett Is a small player In the highly
competitive furniture
Industry, Its effldency levels and pricing power are
restrlcted. All told. we think such factors
will limit Bassetfs sales and earnings
growth prospects OVer the next 3 to 5
years.
We do not recommend Bassett shares
at thls time. GIven that current diffI.cultles are llkely to continue through the
next quarter, investors should walt until a
more clear. favorable picture develops. Out
to 20032005, we don t expect BSETs PIE
ratio, which Is now below Its historical
level. to expand much because the company has sold off most of Its once-slzable Investment portfolio (to repurchase shares)
and now has $50 mIllion in net debt. As a
result of our modest sales and earnings
grow!h projections, high-yielding BSET Is
only an average select.1onfor total return.
And.rew T: Berger
Oct.ober 13. 2000

l1'li_

n----- J!~'~---~r--~-~
llIDD

B 8a_d on dikllld .hares, mnge "'....


pm m 'tI7. Elducles I'lClm!QJ'Iing gailsl
(kisses)' '90, (98); "91, 10; '92, 6; '94, (04);

o lIIlO. YiIbI!'liIe

TH[PUIlUSIlUSNOl Rf
dI

...,

be

.....

f6

N8:Id l8fTIingI report dlll!l Illte NcNembllr.


(0) In miklns, adjJ5Ied for sb:k splits.
(C) Nul div'd I1MIIIting BboutNov. 7th. Goes
A speQal dividend of $.20 was peid dlling
lD:..clill' bout Nov. 12IL Di'ld pa)'Tl8llt dam
1st QUiriIr of 1997.
~IU 1ISImIl, fldull "*rill is CIIIIirM rr- SI;JIJIte5 ~
10lie ~
.. is ~
......
....-s d ~ UnL
[ ORANYERRORSORCM'SSiONSHERE~.1IIispllllli:UlnB""'b~-..non~iraanlluse.
opa1
Rnln*lI i'l1If1 pdlt meaIIIic 1M" _1lInl. CII" ~
b ~
u .......
III)" piIIIIII cr Iil!Elluit .....
W'lice 0" p1Illld.

12

Stock's
dell StdI5Ity
Priel Growth Plirstara

eo

E.mlll1Jl' P~1ty

I,

.11:

10
110 }

II'.

BECTON, D'SON. NYSEBDX

g
W,,: :22J
IU )1~ELAT1VE
Pi RATIO1 62
34 p~RATIO23 1e,"in

I~Ecm
PRK:E
102
7.3

1W[lJIIESS

10.5

'.0

wrn

102
B2

12.5
B.'

22.B
17.7

19.0
12.G

27.8

20.'

442
22.'

49.6
24.4

IIIVll

1.1%

YlII

Targltt Pric. Range


2003 2004 2005

"'.4
23.B

,.

100

..'"
60

TEOiNlCAl
BETA J5 (1.00. Mad)

200...

PROJE"'~N,S

Ann,YDl:III
Rn.m

GIiIn

Prke
....

54

2-for-1

(.wzl .."

50

"

2-tor.'

-.

32

,.

'"'11"'11'111'

"I'

20
16

.1,,'''1
-

I' ,,' 1111'1,..

---

'-'I,I ...!' I !IJ.'~r~I."

p.""m

"D~'

_har..

'.0 3a

tflldMI

3.'9
.38
.19

.or

15
t.88

3.53
.46
.26

.00

.08

.08
.'2

....

. .,.

11 "'.

.-_..

-I)'"

'"

Tot RTtRI1MIa

3yr
5 l'

~ YL-:r_
52,4

30CI

1210

104.8

,.us

.33

2.045

CAPITALSTRUCTURE.. ofll3OlllO

TotIl Debt $1489.0 mi. Due in 5 Yrs $758.1 mil.

2012.1 2112.2 2365.3 2465.4 2559.5 211U1


21.9% 21.3% 21.1% 19.8% 21.8% 22.3'
135.7 149.9 1696
1898
2037 201.8
.
.
.
182.3 189.8 200! 212.8 22'.2 251.7
33.5'\ 29.0' 25.5\
'5'
2291\ 28.'
9.1'
8.7'
8.5'
8."
8.B'II 9.3'
388.1 500.3 507.9 514.6 648.3 607.5
649.3 '39.1 685.1 680.6 6691 557.6
1233.6 1363.8 1594.9 1451.0 t481.7 1398.4

2169.8 2810.5

22.8%
200.5
283.'
28....
1011\
510.7
.... 2
13252

3116.9
'4.01 15.2"
209.8 228.1
315.' 35!l!
28....
26!'
111'
11.5\
634.4 450.9
665.'
7651
t385.4 1613.8

3418.4
250\
.258.9
386.3
26.3\
11.3'
354.4
.... 1
1168.7

3618.3

3IOIlI SIIa(Snl)

..

rl-'"

12.11 2~

DlplCidanl~
.,
.. _ -.:..
3929
4J5 NI1Pro!1,_,
IS
2~
2UI _
T.. 1lIIa
l.us .. , UnCllpitalud Annual rentall $29.3 nil
10.9'10
NI1__
lUll
Pen.1on liability $16.1 ml. ., '99 s. none in '96
3M
IlJtJ WcdJngClp,{t-1)
.g$
TTJ
725 laJilT .... llIbIllnIIIl
175
PldStod$44."rnJl.
(Ownedt,ESOP)
1955
2:W Shr.-I!'_-_OL_I-~
3375
12%
of c.,'ij hiT.'----;~Ch""';___ii"iiIT~i,'-~~"_j_i.'i~7~___;;~_h""etciiiiot_~~i:2"~.'':'.HI~-b';_h""''_l
Common Stock 253,223,142 shs. (69l1.afCap'Q
11.5% 10.4% 10.0% 112% 11.8% 14.3% 16.9% 16.5% 16.3"
152"
115% 150ft Rnmon TO'tlIClIp'
1&.ft
a at' 7131100
14.8% 13.91 12.6" f4.6% 15.1% 18~
21.4" 2Z.7'; 2Z.37ii 21.8,; 1IJ.n: fl.ft RIUn on SiII'. E~
".oti
MARKET CAP; p.8bUnon (large C.p)
11.9\ 10.9'1'. 9.9"4 11.4% 11.1'1'. 14.4\' 114% 18.6'1'. 18.0' 11.1" 1~
1~
RltllMclmCtn
Eq
It.ft.
CURREJfTPOSmoN
I.
1119 ~
23'
251
251
251
25"
23'
221
2tl
211 231
~
.DS AJDhr'dllll'''''Pnlf
241
LTDebt$187.8rnl.
LTlm.res1S62.0rnl.
(LT i'rt8fHI. eamec:I: 10.51; tltall1tMtSt

r.nciCa.')

_"7."")

Ca~~

90.8

Raceivables
~
(UFO)
Cumnt AssritI
AI:I:b PayatH
Debt Due

=nt

64.6

726.6
~~

753.2

Di:kil'l!lOn & Co. ~


three dMsions:
speci'nlm managfWl'lBnIsysIm'5.- 1999 depnl(:i8tm
m: 8.8%;
IrtIBdical 5)'5Iwns prtIduClIS h)'POCJemli: a.:lllls and 5)Ti1ges, duR&D: 6.0"" fA sales. H8 204,000 ~
11,500 ftd::ho6:Bs.
.ion thnpy produtts, and 'l.Igical bllldllS.B~
ITI!nuflC- Off. & di". own 2.5% d axrm:ln; m.sp shinhatlfn,
14.4%;
IIns tow qlcI'nSy S)'Shms, i1~
tr" bf:lrnedlcal~,
ESOP, 11JO%d ~d (12m praIy~ Chlimlln: C. C8!dl6i1. Pr8s.:
~,
and BmI)'1 b 8SS8SIilg gerw, upressi:ln. ClU1icallab E.J. Ludwig. lnc..: New Jersey. Atiwa: One B-mn Dr . FranUil
producIs indude tarrlpIe coIIediJn supPiias. di8gTUk;
and
likes, NJ 07417. Ttl: 201-847-6IlOO.Web lite: www.bd.ccm.

rJ-~ ~~:~

'1'ii8i.7

15042.8
208.5

1708.0
225.D
701.2

209....

385.2

Uilb.

631.2

1ci~

1=:~

ANNUAlRA,n:S

Pat

Pal

Est'd'l1-W

'"CashRow"'

11.5% 11.5%

S.5"

Eami"lgs
DIvidends

10.5% 12.0% 12.5'"

12..0%

14.5%

fO.5"

7.5"

....5"

'3.~

~':"(perltll1'~~" 5:~" ID~;:

Book Value

f-;;=-:'=====~=~:-:---T:;F"'"',--j

~ Otc.~AR=lf~.tIllJ;.3I ~'::I

I-T.ifi'--rnrr'-ii~'--'iifi=---;iir.=-\-;irro

1197 655.8 699.2 7116.'749.. 281.5


1.
701.7 7J!I.4 833.6 843.2 3116.9

-.rs.

wiD likely start lis ate 3 to 5-year sales growth, oft' fiscal
(began October 1st). 2000s 52 blillon tally. The cl1nlcallab segSales are expected to be restrained by a ment. which booked S1.1 billion in sales
surge in the dollar's value. But margins last year, offers a broad array of offerings
should widen: A new hedging program win for sped men oollection. sample analysis.
limit the bottom-line impact or changes in and data management in hospitals. Pene
foreign exchange rates. TIle product mix is tration of deveJopinB countrles and autolikely to Improve with value-added offer- matlon or various diagnostic tests w11l likeings accounting for more business in the ly Uft sales 7%-8% annually to mld..c:Jecade.
second half. thanks partly Ul elrtra manuFinally. the blosclence division should
racturlng capaclty ror safety devices. Other
sustain Its top-Une growth near 20% per
pluses wtll Include a recent eUmlnation of year. thanks to its participation in the
600 positions. use or a new computer sys_ burgeoning areas
or cell analysis. molecutern to streamline
resource utilization in lar biology, and proteomics. The product
North
America, and lower interest
exline, which now numbers 8,500, is galnlng
pense, after fLscaI 1999 debt repayments.
two offerings per day. Overall. we figure
Long-range
earnings
prospects
look . B-D's top line wU1 rise 7%-8% per annum
decent.. as all three of B-D's newly rormed
to 2003-2005. Better margins on new proddivisions have a saUd competitive position.
uets shoul.d aid profitabUity and support
Medical systems should benefit [rom u.s.
10%-15% annual prof1t growth.
hospitaJs' adoption or advanced
safety
Yet. there"s little reason to hurry' into

= :.2 ml :.1 1:.9 =.3


= ~ :: ~ ~ ~:=
= :~~:: ::~: I:~=~~~~h:~~h:-~s':.=~o=e:!
1111ll 768.9

FIIICaI

874.0

873.. !1025

EARllNGS
PER
SHARE
"'.

CaJ.
.1Id.,

.26.

...

.38

3418.4
ful

Y.. ,

Ench Dee,S11Iar.3l Jun.30S,pJO


1997 .22 .32 .33 .34
t!lS
.25 .35 .;7
.40

1111ll

21."

,fA,

83.1 BUSINESS: Eledon,

812.5

1~i cal
Beeton. Dickinson
1-:::=::-'::=,,-=--'=,-::-='=-:==::1
ZOOl quietly

.42

F..cal
V-r
1.21
1.37
1.46

QUARTERLYDM>EHDSPII)Ca

products,

inclUding

redesigned

Mar.31JUI.30 S;DjQ - Dtc.31 ::

LV.

cathecet'S, needles. and blood collection


r.:=-+"='-''':'::''''-~~--''''=+-''=:-t sets. Foreign markets should rollow a slmi~:
.115 .058 .058.23 lar. though more gradual. path. lJeljvecy
1.
.13 .065 .065 -.26 devIces sold to drug rums and a glucose

.. ,

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
VALUEUNEPIJB.~C. 0345
5.42
5.92
6.68 1.19 7.78 825
9.10 10.42 11.20 11.51 12.58 13.63 105
Wnpwlh A
1125
.11
131 1.06 1.13 1.22 1.35 1.52 1.11 1.96 2.15
Z.35 2.55
2.71
1M -cahAow"pwlh
(
.59
.46
.50
.58
.61
.64
.68
.75
.90
1.06
121
1.31
1.4& U9
1.15 Ean*t;lpw ....
2JllI
.38
.11
.13
,14
.15
.15
.11
.19
21
..23
.26
.29
.34
.37
..JI Dlv'd1D1dclpwm Co
..
.09
.DO
1.03
.88
.70
.61
.62
...
...
.59
.70
.73 '1'
UII
U. ~'Spnln8,",1h
US
.60
3.04
3.50
3.90
4.32
5.05
4.68
5.07
5.16
5.15
5.~
6..31
5.87
7.M
,.
BooIrYalutpwlll D
1111
2.7D
,.
"'"22
1.93 1303." "".il 1281.1
2".11 247." 250.60 Z>:UII
''''''''8
19:"
".5
116
,,,
,,~
116 '3.6 '29
'5.0
la. ,a' 229 2'.' la.
A'll"" PII.....
'U
127
1.20
1.03
1.00
.95
.82
.82
.85
1.00
1.16
1.14
1.19
1.39
1.25
R*Dft PIE Rdo
1.10
1.3% 1.6%
1.8%
1.1% 1.6\
1.7% 1.8% 1.9%
1.5% 1.2% 1.1%
.9% 1.0%
1.4%
A.vg Ann' Dlv'd YWd
10ft

11.9 11.3 '9.1


1.11
.92
1,(19
32%
2.5% 1.6%

.~.. .

.96

.60

.33
2.10

12

.".,"""'1. ,'1,,'1.III""

conunitments

here.

given

the

soft

slart

that's expected' for this fiscal year. Investors would do well to keep abre&t of deveJopments. though. as B-D has a saUd
core
business
and
t.I1e
financial

~~i~~l~yexpandvta~~~2000

FISCal yr. snds Se,et. 30th cI the ca.... ~ jExet. pin._ t-om clJs:'d aps.: 'B8. 4; 'B9, 18.
yU'". (BI Prnary EPS tll'tlugh 1997; diUIed Next IIaI1llllgs repcrl due Ia1e Jlnllll)'.
tner.aft ... Exd. nCll"l'llClJ'.: '86, ~; 117, 7; '93. (el Next cIivDRnd I1"8t*Ig about Jan. 24. Gc.
~;
'94, 111;'P7, d6t1; '98, lUll!; "99. d42;. eI 8tcd Mlwch 7. DNU.rxI r:&)'MflI dateS:
o ZIXlO, 'MIt lill! ~g.
m. AI riIIIt:s~.
FlcllIIl ......
i5 lIltWJed IIlMI .ut!S bIliIM!lIlo be

fA)

i1""

Tll[PUBlJSH[RISNOTRfSf'OfllSIBlnORNf'URRORSORCIIISSlQf\lSHER[
*'rlII" ~
priIed. ~
II' rtIB

1I.t

-rbi!' ~

bm.

tw

Jarl. 4th, .MlIfdJ 31st, June 30th, SeI1 30th.


0 Di'ti:MIcI htimmnsrrt
plIn Mable.
(D) Incl. mllllg. In '99: $1034.7 nil, S4.131!f1.
.() IIImilm, ad~
b spills.
niII:IIe ... ft, pOIiIed ....
WIITMies " any UIIL _

... ThI5pl11:11i:lliani5sKlt.f1ar~5llM1._-anI1BtiIl.ftJmII.se.ftapll'l
UWII ... ~,..
-...
~fIli*d.
pllCIbIin. IInice

CCIInpuy'a FiBudai

stock's Pries Slabl..,


Pib GroWltl ~~
Elml. PrNidUllIy
I

II"

pvlb:t

I',

"'JIb

It
. 65

75
100
: II:

II'.

cm

BIORAD LABS 'A' ASEBKlA


4 _~""'"

SAfETY

3 .."".....

lED.

200:14'

11.9

19.5

6.7

6..

28A
l8.e

PROJECTIONS

':u ~s

...,
...,

:::'1

,11.1'

... ',1"1'

..

.II~. '.

.'

984c 1985 1986


8.75
.39

1.57
.58

.....

.19

..

279

23.7
211

1S.0
122

1,(04

.>Z

3.83

I.OS
4.02

11"

11."

213
1...

224
1.50

.,
..

..

..

.h.. (~'"

1400

mliion ISm.1I C.p)

POSrIlON

''''
17.1

10.1
106.0

193.9
V2..
'26.3
41.4
26.9
235.4- "'YfB:f
26.7
".7
22.0
9.'
115.8
--ll!
202.5
972

Rec:eiYBbles
I~
(AwgCst)
Olh,,,

CumtnlAsS815
NDsPoya"",

0.,,"""

0Ihe<
Cumtnt Liab.

-_"",""
..""

ANNUAL RATES

Put

In,,,
8.0%

..

rI Cap'Q

lI/3QIOO

'.8

182.6
124.8

38.'
354.'
".1
la.
113.9
183.8

.......

Put Est'd'l7'.

"

...
6.0%
11.0%

11.0~

"CahAow"

g.5%

Earni1gs

8.5"

18.0%

11.011
Nil

12.5'"

12.0%

8.5"

Divitencls
Ekd;Value

..

.-

"".
.-

I
'.",

..

,....,

I.

9.0"

..

....

1"'

....

,"'.

"''''''ll.

f:

."
"

..

..

"

'1

- -- - ---

..jlj

-lr

..

..

..

..

If'

..

..

.,. ....

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

418.8 4269
14.6~ 12.1l'7o
17.4
19.5
31~
201
25.0% 27.81
7.4% 4."
119.4 126.6
6.7
39.0
163.5 '96.7
16.4"
8.8"
16.9% 10.31
16.9% 10.3%

..

..

BUSWESS: Si>-1Ud Labmllt'ril!s manuflldl.f2S lIIId seI5 r:woduets


used in Itne busneu ~
Lilli SciInt:es ~uds ani used
to separate .net .nalyzll axnpib; cheri::la (043%d '99 Sl!IIas),
C"'ic:aJ DilIgnosticll produceS tesI tis .and equipnwll: UBI in dillgl1DIingar'llllDlibi1g cIisBe!ll!S (45%0),and AnaIy1icaIIllHunenll
Il'I.InufacttnS ~uets used b IHeII'dIIIl the Cherni:al and sci-

..

..

3553 396.6
151~ 14.2~
16.7
16.8
26.3
15.
35.01 25.0"
4.4% 6.6\
111.8
263
20.9
1211.B 157.1
15.4\
10....
12,0'; 16."
12.1l'7o 16.1\

.... .....
nos

-....
1 ".

.....

<0
32

"

"

12
8

% Tot RE1\JRIII1MlII

,,,.

..

286.7 310.7 3303 328.6


12.1% 11.1)11 11.3% 9A~
10.4
121
16.
13.9
10.7
B1
5.9
2.B
37,81 39.7" 43.51 4011
3.7% 26~
1.81
9%
R1
82..2
62.5
829
.42.7
54.V
579
81.1
00.8 101.1 110.3
10.4"
7.1"
5.4"
3.4"
13..,.
9.0%
25\
5.5~
g.O% 5.S"
13.2"
2'~

..

....
20

3".

..

549.5
"'.9
11.8% 11.0%
21.0
27.5
24.3
11.7
29.DI- ".BI
5.5~
2.1%
1361
1162
423
239.2
214.3 220.1
9.1"
29"
11.3% 53"
11.3% S.3%

......:: -::

7lS

11.1%
3DJl

..

..

...

Jt"
2.1%

22S
25&
%1l
S-Sl<

lO"
.....

1/11

20.'

' .... 11

36.0

24.5

21.7

2<5

104.8

C VALlI UNE PII8 lOt. lIJ.45


rI.7S
'Cuh FIoo" ....
51S
ElmnpplrlhA
US
DWdl Dld'd pw'"
NIl
Cllll_V
....
S"'_porlll
aIlS
V
,SA
AOVNl"'':'''
.....
R-'PUdo
t.1Il
AWl!Ann' Elv'd Y"1IkI
NI

.......

'.10

=-

731
11.1"
32.8 0_(".,
lSA "'Pro8l~1
3I.Ill h:CIItt Tu
... ProItIbrglo
22S W_v C"II' (In'"

11"

"*

t.t;.I=~~I~

2S8 SI".
(...
SAIl Rnm (II Totli Cap'
R.... lIlShr.Eq ....
Rnined to C.. Eq
NIl AI DlY'd. to ,.., Prof

"'"
..'"

IJIl

11.1"
35.8

31.,
UIll

""

25Il
2BS

""

.."

7.11%
9.11%
Nil

ForBWII Yes,

59% r:i kltal m '00. RID:


12.1% of sales; d8pnlc:. rate: 11.0%. tin aplWll- 2,450 empIi.,
83S stDCkhotlen. 011'. & d". cwn 19.0% d A sham., 87% of B
shares: D. and A.. SctJw.1l, 16.6% d A stn.; PrivIIe Cap. Man.,
13.3%0.(4tOO proxy). PM. & CEO: DiI'Id Schwlr1z. Inc..:DE. Ada".:
1000 A.-.et Nobel Drive, HercuIBs, CA 94547. Tel.: 510-n4-7000.
conIllJCb'

ixluslries (1~).

We have pared Blo-Rad Labs' sharerespectively.


net estimate for this year and next. The company"s pros~
over the 3During the third quarter, the company
to 5-year J::I
remain attractive.
Inreported an Impressive 53% jump in sales, deed, the
orementloned sale of BIOA's
Measurements
relative to the year.a~o figure, yet eaITl- Semiconductor
division
ings per share fell. by 996. (Note: we have
generated S21 million in cash, S8 million
excluded a SO.79-a~share gain on the in a subordinate note. and an 18% interest
recently completed sale of the company's
In Accent Semiconductor Teclmologles.
Semiconductor Measurement dJvision from And we look for Blo-Rad to use this cash to
our
earnings
presentation)
Clearly,
lrtm Its long-term debt, which has InBIOA's top Une continues to benent from creased by about S215 million over the last
the 1999 acqulsltion of Pasteur Sanofl year, due to the' atxlulsltlon of PSD. SepaDIagnostics (PSD), yet an Increase In the rately. BIOA continues to rocus on incost of goods sold, in conJunctlon with a tegrallng and optlmlzlng the PSD bus!significant uptick In Interest expense (a re- ness. It should complete planned worksult of the PSD deal), has tempered the force reductions and reorganize itself Into
company's bottom U.,e. What's. more, the Integrated business units based along dlscombined effects of the sale or the Semi- ease s.tate lines.. Lastly, Bio-Rad's margins
conductor Measurement division (whJch Is should receive a boost from its new elikely to reduce 2001 sales by about 535 commerce service, as its cost of goods sold
mJlllon), the recent cancellation of a dlslridecreases .
bution agreement wtth Beckman Coulter,
These shares are not a timely choice
and the relative weakness of the euro bode for the coDling six to 12 months. Morelli for the company's top-line aver the bal- over, much of the double-dJglt sales and
ance of this year and into 2001. As a re- earnings
growth we envision through
suIt, we now have cut 50.25 and $0.40 a 2003-2005 seems to be discounted by the
share off our 2()(X)and 2001 e~
es- stock's current quotation.
Umates. bringing them to $1.15 and 1.25. Kenneth A Nugent
December 8, 2000

IIUARlBlLY SALlS~ oil)


111'.3. 1 J .3lJ -~
- ""'.31
y1117 105.9 105.7
426.9
99.S l1S.6
.. 1.9
IIl1 11~2 107.9
99.0 lias
125.7 l1S.8 113.S 194.S 549.S
200D '83.7
lM.l
177.1 715
17'.1
2llO1
119
177
l3II
171
_PERSIIAIE
Co!1Iu.31 Jun.3lJ St .38 Dtc.31 l ..,
1...
1!1!17
. 2
.61
.40
.21
.S2
IIl1
1.98
.72
.SlI
.16
.65
.97
.119
.35 d.92
.24
US
.24
.42
.25
1.25
2llO1
.39
.21
.2!
.3lJ
IlUARTERLYONIIENDS PAIl
Filii
1Iu.31 Jun.3lJ 50"'"
Dec:.31 l..,
199&
1!1!17
NO CASH OMOENIlS
1!111
88NG PAlO
1"'
200D
(A) """""' ......
1996, :
($0.39): '97, ($0.311'99, (10.00): '00 C3,
t'-tafter. bcludes norna.mng gainsl
$0.79. Next eamngs report due .... Jan.
(bsses): '85, ($0.11); '86, l$O.03 '88, ~.03~
fBlln milOrJ:I' 1Id,mtd ~ sklck spits.
"89, ($0.10); '92, SOB'; 1t3, SO.1 ; '95, .10); C Shan! pncIl data b Bio-Rad Class A

'119

1'1.. ,

1,1

..

"",

None - No ckrIiJ.c berJllfli plen

"'",.......

. ........

,.I'

1
1 '1 ".

5:;

.. of II3CNOO
Due In 5 Yrs $45.0mlL

,...

..

..

..

CarnmoR Stock 12,.418,128


(10.0 ml. 'A,' shs., 2.5 mil '8' shs.) e
as af7131taa

lalLl

1 ...,.. Price Range


2003 200.
2005

57."

PId

CURRENT

21.0

1989
1990
1991
1999
2000
2001
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
199'
20.46 24.39 26.24 21.70
51118
21I1 21122 32.41 nn 3437 35.46 ".04
3]0
3.63
3.14
1.39
1.56
1.79
1.71
1.65
1.51
267
3.51
3.19
155
3M
1.15
.83
.89
.~ .69
.49
.23
1.29
1.64
1.98
.97
1.1S
2.52
2'5
..
..
..
..
..
.'
NIl
/iii
'.
~ zlS
1.16
1.14
L.l
1.01
1.70
219
1.71
.Bl
1.23
1.00
'1'
6.00
.. lIS
S.96
W
B.96
9.16 10.68
1283 14.80
15.83
17.211 17.&f
:J4JS
.7
1 .
11.
1
1
12J
12.7
20.3
10.0
10.
16.5
131
251
25~
11.7
15,3
1.27
97
2.42
.94
1.30
t.52
.70
.73
.95
.69
t."

Luses, UllcapiCallDd MnUBC rentals S 12.6 01

MARKET tAP:

/'

&.0

LTDeb1S211.6mill.
LTlntlirn1 $16.8 mill
(Total i1ilftst CDW!lillge: 10.2x)
(52"" ",,~

Pension Lhlbillty
S1odr: None

1B.9

17.43

..

..

CAprrAl STRUCTURE
Tol:lIlDebI $225.4 mi.

19.5

1988

1.13
.68

..

..

..

1987

11.19
J3
.56

."

.65
1.96

Pan::_nt
5b.re-

IS

13
4751

33.9

111'1'

.. ...." ......",. l~'"~:~.ltlIffi

"',.

JF.".JJAS
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
002
1 1 0 0 0 0
IMUlutiohlilDeci.lona

29.0

trtrS5.bn

GIin

..30

Nil

YID

34.1

100
80

Rnwn
t~5~1
",
.10% 1%

Prieto

33.5
23.'

37.D
2.4..0

lIIV'D

LEGENDS
7.!111:I:1~ n_op ~
ReIIliwr Pli:;e SlrllllgDl
3-101'-2" &.'IIi

,,.Id Decisionl:

14.3
10.6

15.~! 18.5
8.3
11.1

Am1TCIIIII

.........

RAOO 28 4(T....
Modi..I-;~~~TM:
: III PfRAOO 199

33 Pf

.,

O.m.1IaIU(I

.10

g .

Low:

4_~1_

TECHMCAI.

13.3

High:

lIIEUllESS

!WPRICE

....... OD~. c ... S sha ......


'Ox ... "V
pow8 r:I Ias! A, Class e Ih8retDden litItd
75% Of bolIrd of di1ldors.

CIllIlO, VM !.De ~
~
rt5eMId. hdllll '"*rill is oI:tJRcI .... -.a5 b*IelIlCI ~ ....
IIIll is ~
.....
THEPUBI.IStERISNOTRE
E ORNfY[RRORSOROfoIsgONSH[R[IN.TlD~i5'Jh::1y"'~e-n.IlOIl~hlSllllllllse.
d ~ r-, be ~...,
u r.MiMd iI q ~
~
........ ulllllll bgmmlilg II"~
~
pWIIBd CI" *dII:rit~,

......-s
~

l1li ~
II"

tnl
lIP1f1
pocM1.

l,'.....
""'........ 70

Cam
Stock's n:. Sblblllly
Prtc8. GrvwtIl hrslmlnca
Eannngl
PrwcIIc:tabIIIy
I

",

45
20
:11:

II'.

--,....

BLOCK DRUG CO.


lIIIJIj[SS

SAFElY

.s

IQ.

High'
28.~
29.~
low:
22.8
22.7
lEGENDS
8.5. [C6Ir_:I5h

NI!WI'JU91

TCHNICAI.

'COo
_

(I.llD_lbrks)

~~sPROJEC~~NS
Ann'ITotal
Rdlm

55
(+5il ."
35
I':t '""
I~S"4 ..."
Gain

lnaider

.....s.
....

...'..

,.

56~

57,.

.'A
24.2

33.5

.. .

32.8
24.3

1,,1."

r~'-'

'.

,.
"

34.7

43.

47.1

27.8

29.3

37~

"

2Q2
..
Pa.-c.nt
25 .h.....
25 IN'"
567S

3.'

1.S

Leas .. , Uncapltall:r:ed Annual rentals NA


None in '99 s. Hone in "98.

PldStDclF:None
(92% afCap1)
Common Stock 23,209,000 SM.
(Include. B.7 mil Class B VDlngccmTlon shires)
(As of Ii3CNOOI
IIARKET CAP: S1.z bllion

.,..

135..9

Curnutt Ass8ts

409.8

Ac:ds Payable

185.3

ANNUAl RATES

19.1

18.9

.....

11.0%
8.0"

Boote Valu.

I.
s:
I.11fT

2101
lIfT

'111

2081
Co!-

,,.

_nclar

11fT
1191

1M

"...

1. Tn.
8.0%

2.5"

~~

\l::'

Put

5.5%

"Cashflaw"

8-

Pat

67.1

'62.1
'46.2
5U
429.7

143,1

348l" 37'f.i"

Lilb.

6I3CIIOO

149.5
'46.
52.0
426.6
184.1
174.1

Otho<

........

"78.6

7SA
153.5

Inventcxy (FIFO)

CUnenl

..

(1II1dClip)

'lIB

Debt Due

165.9
152.1

..

Sep.30
221.9
2D4.1
21<.8

. 0%
3.5"

--

8.0%
5.0%

OK.3t
208.3
194.5
209.5

",

5.0"
7.0"

7.o"

25"
4.0"

...,..31

233.1
239.1

21&.4 145
2ZIl
ZJD
23D
25D
EAIIIIIIGS PJR SIIARE ...
"".30 8 .30 Doc31 MorJI
. 2
.86
.65
.48
.51
.~ .52 .62
.69
.51
.5'J
.51
.11
.63
.12
.13

..

,77
,ff
,
.0
llUART8lL1DMlENOs PAmC
."Jl
Jun,3D s.p.30 lloc31
.258 .286 .286 .286
.283
.292 .292 .292

:m

.308
.308
.32

.r:..

2327 863.'

1IS

.308
.311

..

... .3

Est'd'l7-'1I

llUARTERLI SAW{S oIll'

Jrzn.JO
200.2
189.4
~.9
2OB.6

, - -

.308
.308

.308
.308

.32

.32

821.1
664.3

""

JZS

e
22'
~19
2.42

210

210
Full

Y.,
1.06
1.16
1.22

'Zl

..

"
"
12

20

"

.......
.,.
.....
,...
,,.

~ Tat RE11.RIMO

1.12
1.5\

~"

..

.Ill
1.9\

.91
~6\

.83
3.3\

.95
3.0\

.91
H\

,M
36.70
3.26
221
1.15
1.95
27.53
EJ.51
18.9
'Jl9
~8\

,,.

1,..
.
S,..

15.4

25.2

10.5

57.'

1999 2000 2001 CVALIJE!.WE P1B.IiC.

".83
3.10
~19
1.20
1.69
29.01

37.37

Z'J.57

ZJ.1J

16.'
.88
3.2\

14.<
Bl
3.1\

3.n
2.'2

'13
111
29>1

JI.IIJ

43./10 lWapwlhA
~30 CuIlFlow" ptllII
2M EnInt' pit Ih III
1.34 D1Yd' DId'd J*' Ih C
1.1' ~, SpondOIg por'"
310' Boct. VllUI J*' III

"',W

.,""

'U5
J.J5

1.1lI

,...
1.31

...
~.::---

ChAMII

:5111 OIl."

4U11
~15

,....

1411

2.15
34.D5

.,""

110

A'lIAn"P,,_
R_PIERdo
Ave A,nl' Dtv'd Y"1IId

131
I.
1m

669.9 115.2 86>5 863.1


821.1 864.3
3Z5 ..... !$nlIII).
'30
9.5\
9.9\
9.1% 10.4% 9.5%
8.'1ff.'" 11.5% ........ Ii.ain
26.1
31l.D
17.1
21.5
24.6
2<.1
32.D Doproc:i_ (10011
3U
30.'
51.6
51..
ID.. NoI_1Inoir1
50.4
83.1
13.1
56.'
".3 5IB
20.9\ 18.0\
22.8\ 25.61- 23.51- 2<.1\ 21,'" 11.1\ near. Tu.1tIII
21.'"
<n; NoIPn1It.....
6.6% us
1.5\
1.5%
6.018.3\
1.5"
26.1 106.0
901
19.8
61.5
58.0
'9.
Ill.' W_g CoVI tInolll
56.1
55.9
58.3
101.0 105.3
110
15.3
111/1
111/1
683.9 682.'
IIJIl
562.5 .. 1.0 631.3 641.3
775
lnIl
1" SI".
7.0%
1.6\
1.1\
7.1\ Rnrm on ToIIIC",
8.8\
8.0'4
9.6\
7.6'"
9.0S
8.0\
1.5"
10.2"
1.5\
1.5% ROnOfl Sh Eaulhr
B.4"
'.3\
I.5l'
1",
<7\
<.4\
5.8'"
5."
m R_toCawEq
1.2'
4.8'
AI DiY'd,lo Nit Pro!'
25\
31\
30\
00\
39\
Inc. nw.nufactuft!!llprul'e55ional
3,380 employees. Company has two climes
at DJI'M'lM stI:xX
denLlJ, crak:ll8, and derrhh eft ~uds (13% cI 1999 saleS) Class A non-voing and CIIm B voIrtg. OfrIC8lS.nd DIvcbs own
.1Id tol'tItner tMlr-(hea:lIl .... 1Ndi:in8s em ~ totrQ. Dental
53% 01 CIiISS A am'Tmn
.nd 100" at etas B corrmon Ad.
poducts irx:lude Poirittid. Atmr. 8J1d Poi-Grip dentin aa.naar
(3199 1o-K). Channan: JiIIIWI A. Bk:d. Pl8sidlllll: Thon8. BIF:lck.
.nd lIdhesiw'fIS, nISPKti't9IY, Inll ~
toatilpaste. Foreign
Incorpomtld: New J-.sey. Addr8ss: ill Coo*iIon AV'tIlU8,... nwkels IlaDUnt for ruughIy 60% d 1*1 salBs. Has approxinDly
IIf'J City, New Jenrily 07302.-9988. TMtphonlil: 201 434-3000.
62. 8 613.3
S62.ll
11.1\ 111\
9.0\
10.6
11.7
' . 5
57.3
61.6
41.9
18J\
20.8\
181\
101\
9.9\
In
69.6
511
32
191
17.9
'9A
<46.6 485.3 515.1
12.4'
12.5'
9.1"
9..1\
'28\
'~1\
11.5'110
7.0'"
10.9'
1<\
15\
17\
2<\
BUSINESS: Bbet Drug Company,
512.9
12.7"
9.5
532
23.0\
10.41.
88.1
19.5
398.1
12.9'11.
13.3%

"'"
m.

'"':'=:'~)

'0.5'

'"

..'"
~'"
.'"

"" ""
*"*

In early October.
Block
Drug
announced that it b being acquired ~
SmithKline Beecham in an all-cash 0 fer for 553 a share, giv:lng the deal a
transaction
value of 51.24 billion.
Though the offer only represents a 5% premium to Block's dosing rcrlce the day prior
to the announcement, B ocI<. shares had 81ready advanced by 11% in anticipation of
the deal durtng the week before the announcement. SmithKllne stated that It has
already received comrn1bnents from a maJor:lty of Block shareholders to approve the
deal. The acqulsillon. which Is dependent
on United States and British regulatory
anroval. Is scheduled to close by the end
o this year. Until then, the acquisition is
excluded from our ftnandal presentation .
We think the sale is a plus for Block"s
shareholders.
given the relatively Oat returns generated by thJs equity In the last
several yean;. Though Bloc1<'s core products, namely Sensodyne and Polident, oonUnue to retain a healthy market share in
their respective areas, the company had a
tough time [MlStlngsteady top-line gains in
the past, which has, In turn, restrained its
profit growth and stock-price perfo:nnance.

:It "'~''''

we think Block
In the meant:i:nJe.
Drug's
revenues should
Increase by
roughl~ 3% in the December quarter .
Unit YO ume gains should come in a couple
of percentaa: points higher. U CUITeIltcurrem:y tren
hold, however, Block's revenues and profits will suffer from c:urre.ncy
translatlon.
The volume gains should be
supported
by good demand for Pol/dent
and Sensodyne. Revenues may get a lift
from Atridax, an antibiotic: gel used to
treat chronic adult perlodontus. [n the
past, this disorder was treated by an Invaslve
deep-scale cleaning
procedure.
AtrJdax, which Is administered by dentists,
may provide a less painful and less expenslve means to oorrect th~robIem .
We advise Block Dru s shareholders
to vote in favor of this deal for the
above reasons. In the meantime, BlocKs
Timeliness rank has been suspended. due
to the pending merger.
DaVid Gal/en
October 2~ 2000

..
=
."""

__s...,....
....IIr.....

...

1.

e.-_

104~U\l

'!IIi.lllll'l

2U.l(IUII

""'

'-'Y''''

1Zl.!111ft1

IlU(W.l'l

.... 1

.... Next d.mend meeting about November 11182.


Od. ,"- S1k. do'd, "181, '%~~ S1ock'sPric.StAblMtJ
(CI
; 11183-11198,3%.
3rd. Goes u abool. o.:anb8r 121h. Appruxi- (D) In mlDns.
Pa GnnIth ~rsiItMIe'""'
diYidend paymenl dIIes: Jan. 2nd, Apr.
Eamillp ~1Iy
II 2m
~
l.De
re58'fIII. fac1Yll IMIIIiIl is aIiI.lin!d INn! ..-as tIIrieM" lie I"IIIiIlIIe ... is ~
.....
..nntia II ~ kiId.
1IlEIUllJSIRISMJTRf.
ORNrRRORSOROMISSIONSHERIII.1lIiri~is'SftlyfDr""""5_.
II ",*"ciIl,~lI5lI!.
pili
I
I
I',
:11:
dot -r er IIplUIItal( ..m,......-:t
a JJI( ~
t611Sl111.""'''-uIiIg'.,.,
ptIliId,. ~fIIIbIa*n.
~ Irfl'lll*d.
(A/
.... (8)-.,,,"'
.. - Exi1g FocoI_
calltr1lW year.
PmIwy 8iII11ir1p.
cUOBs I'IOI'IfI!ClIII gai'l (b!a): "95, $1.68;"96,
($2.6a}. Ne.tI &alIings nJPOl1 dlJe Mfy Howm-

~"'ro:

50
40
32

'"'.

'.'

.89

eo
eo

- -- - -- -- - --

:';::0.

4..5

(LT mBr85t earned: 2O.3Jl; mtal intBrlirit


aMAge: 6.Qx)
(8% of cap'\)

Olh,,,

r t Price Ranp
2003 200. 2005

53.'
25.8

.~'".

CAPITAl SlRUCTURE as o1l13CWO


Tobil Debt $257.2 mil. Due In 5 Y... S175.0ml!.
LTlnterut
t7.5mil
LT IMbt $105. 1 mill.

c.Jr~...
ReoeiYBbIes

48 .

3O.e 24A

~::<..

..

CURRBO' POSITION

'10

43A

.~..

UabllftJ

",

1 49 DII'D
YUI 2.5%

'I"''''

Block Drug Company was founded in 1990 1991 1992 199i 1994 1995 1996
1007 in Brooklyn, New Yor~ as a drug 22.05 2. 18 26.82 2618 28.65 30.83 36.75
a1DIll.
Mer severalacquisitions, Block Drug
2.69
2.91
3.14
~67
3.79
~88
3.71
was transformed into a ronsumer products
218
~ ~05 2.'8 U9 ~15
~46
company, speciah2ing in the oral and dental
.56
.66
.76
.84
.91
1.08
.89
care produc1s business, On March 20, 1970,
1.<3
1.89
1.51
1.<8
1.<0
1.94
the company was incorporated in New.Ie,- 11.14 19.18 20.83 22..1 2. 06 21.36 26.90
sey, Block Drug wentpublic in 1971, dfet- 2>2. EJ." EJ"" EJ." EJ.J8 ZJ.O" EJ.Of
ing 275,000shares 10the public.
14.5
lLO
11.6
15.0
15.4
141
'~1

'.n,IDft

~~lJVE
Pf RAOO.

~."'.'
i

27

::-...

"

..

.. ,;~

'

48.2

. ''', 'I'"~,',

:"
:.,1"

".1"

InaUlutioMI uecislons
1Q2..

48.
28.4

rrussi:In

D.c::isiDna
DJFIIAIIJJA
5 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 a 0
001
0 0 0 0 0 0
401.
29

. _ Relilire PrU 'Shi~

_~1""

., ."ISf
52 Pi.RAllO 20 0 (1,,;,.,'111

WECENT
PRlC

NDQBlOCA

iT"",... ___

...

lIIlfWI/

70
10
70

II.

BRUSH3ENG MTlS

twElKSS

Rliw:d612SS9

SAFETY

3 Me.lnJo9:l

TECHNICAL

3 RWd Sl'\49.1

I1'A

Rekliire

20.0
9.5

IlIV'D

2.4%

YlJ)
17.5
11.0

19.0
12.4

18.6
13.4

23.6
14.5

20.5
18.'

26.8
18.'

30.0
10.9

24.3
1.4.0

19.1
12.9

Pm Sl"1IigII

~r:unxaJ'lI!n'ssDr

PROJE"'f:~T""
Prb

High: I 30.31 25.3l


Low: I 20.31 11.51
LEGENDS
goO I ([151'1 ft,.ap ~

.15 (I..(11.1otIrUfl

I~

NYSE.BW

':" " ""I..

RftI'n

GIIn ,\

~ (!~I

..

~~

1IJ .

lnalder Declsk)ns

",.

II

'1.1"

I'"

I"

- ",

"1''''-''

I.

DJFIIAIIJJ,Il

..,

000000000

..

00000000&

.........

~,..
0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 T
InstlluUonal Decision.

Cl.
..,

27

I::" ,OJi
1984

1985

:0:"

tQllN

29

11~

111~

1987

12.91

12.83

3Jl3
2.01
,47
1.59
11.31

2.33

li6
1.20
.56
1.Jb
12..Q

ua
..52
"'"
l1.n

P.~nt

. 0

t...cIed

4.0
2..0

33 ah.~

1986

17.32

.......

..

1ti.17

1.

221
26.4 24.9 15.0
1.41
1.84
1.79
1.66
1.25
1.5'
1.5% 1.8%
1.1%
2.0'%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as olll3CWO

~B
2.48

~6'

Total Delli $74.7 mil.

D.. ln 5 y ... $ 70.0 mil

IT Dlbt $48.3 mi.

IT Intel"lSt S 2.2 mil.

La .....

(18% 01Cap'Q
, lIfJgptUlDd: AltlNlaJl'MIa'lIp.1 mil

~.naJonLlablityNon8

PldSIoelr.Non8
Common Stock f6,363,9Q8sf'ls.

(82%afCap'Q
MARKETCAP:$32SmilJoR (Sma' tip)
CURRENT POSITION
,.
1191 fJ3lMIO

.... otll4.QO

11IIlLl
castl Assets

"....
1M

79.8

5.5
l~i

::

~~

,~:

3.6'

"'.

10.10

10.49

10.70

1.10
11.60

".01
..

"."

"."

1.." ".UI """

124

..
3.1'

d3.5

29.1%
..
5.9\
HMF
89.6
80..
26.7
3S.D
215.9 162.3
7.1"
NMf
B.'% ~MF
2.9"
NMF
64"

.!lO

NMF

.19

24..
1.51

1.2'

1M

23.6'.4
4.01
88.6
33.8
168.B
5.71
6.2%
04.31
31"

3'L4

129

1.56
12.46

14.'
1.00

1.81
13.46

1)\'".

1U5

13.50

1.03
13.51

"."

lb."

lb."

36.'

... ,

1.89

226

~....

3.0'

3.83

14.0

B1
1.4, IS'
~"
295.' 345.9 369.6 316.3 433B
11.7\0 13.7' 13.9'4 14.3% 12.7\
21.1
19B
lOB
1B.'
lB.l
6.5
20.6
20.7
24.5
25.6
16.211 11.910 24.6\ 26-2' 27.8..
221
SA 5.6\ 6.5\ 5.9%
105.2
115.3
1252
128.1 100.6
24.0
18.5
17.(> 18.9 17.9
112.1 166B 200.3 219.3 23M
3.al 10.5"
9.~
10.7" 1D.1.
3.e" 11.0\ 10.3\ 1U' 10.8%
1.3"
9.0"
1.6\
82"
1.71
65"
18%
m 261 28'"

s:: ~ -

1.&1

~o,

.85

.16
~"

US

~"
409B
U\
21B
9.4

15.'\

4.55B
1,4"

1.15
1.tll:5

1".

S3'
!.J'%

-8.0

252

5)'1'.

33.8

97.&

Cap'5pOnCliII8P'''.

15111 BookVIkJII*M

,UlI
......

A'lIAn"p,.Rrio

__
-

1Iopocidm11no~

2<1I

211 Nt! '"'It I~)


InanITuRdt
tIS NMPlvI1",

145

SU
23lI
,,""
7.0".4
1.51
5D%

, ....

16JI

US

15.5

1.4'

8<

1.4\
148
11~

22.1I

2.3\
99.0 124.9
32.1
42.3
221.B 220.'
3.8\
3.01
42"
2.9%
.1'"
NMF
83%
1221

2M

212.045

A'8An.1Dh'dYoId
S1S _llnIIl
11.~ Ds-dnllbPn

6.4

2R
JII

'"

R_PIERd.

lOB

NMF

\II.-nL

3)'1'.

22.1I

4!1
.2!m'
~

1155 WldJIlgClp'($n_

6U Lq.r.-nrDlbt(".,
251 Shr'-EooOWllnill)
UI RdH'rronT*C.tp'
!.5% RnrmanShr.EOIiIY
""
R.taind 10CQfIIq
3B AI DlY'dl to NIt Prof

Z5D

51.1
MIl
11.ft
13.n
riM:

(specially tnl!\al sys1Ims) and Wliams AdvaIlClld Mirtlrials (precOIls metal products). :i9 b. sa_: 30% 01' tti; depr. It: 5.1%. Has

Brush Engineered.
Materials'
results
remain on the upswing. Second-quarter
ANNUALRAlES ,::.
:::.
~d':y:.
share net was up 20%. marking the third'
~~P"Ih)
3.5%
7.0%
9.5"
consecutive period of sequential improve''C1!Sh Flow"
-2.5%
0.5%
14.0%
mentA Record sales in the interim (up 26%
1~~
2;:g:
0bver the prior year) continue to be driven
Book Value
0.5% 5.0% 6.5%
Y strong demand from the automotive
F:::.::r==-===';:;'=~;'---T=::1 electronics, computer, tele<:()mmunlcatlons,
Caf. M.r~~SA.~~~1
:""
and optical medIa markets. Based on our
.ndar
.r
CXJX!Ctatfonsfor continued positive sales
'197 99.7 113." 109.1 111.6 433.8 momentum in most of the company's prod1.
114.2 103.0 96.2 96.5 409.9 un lines. 2000 earnings willllkely come in
1199 1111 106.1 11lB 120.1 455.8 at more than double the prior year"s tally.
2DDO135.4 137.2 127 1J0.4 53D
Demand for the company's
stri:r, prod.21101 1411 1511 1411 145
STS
EARMtlGS
PER
SHARE. A
ucts continues
to outpace
its e arts to
~
lIu.31 Jun, SiiL30- Dec.31 :~~
increase
output.
The alloy strip expansJon project at BWs Elmore. Ohio facUity
1!197
.40
.46
.24
.46
1.66 (which
was started In 1996) has been
1.
.37
.17
.04
d.01
.51 plagued by a number of operational dlffid~
~
::
cultles
In recent
quarters,
resulting
in
2D01
:..
:..
.21
.JI
Uti lower-than-expected output. stretched out
QIJARlERLyDNl)Jl)SpAIJ
~
lead times, and. some loss or market share.
cu.
Full Although some effidency and cost ovenun
,nclar Mar.'1 Jun.30 Sep.30 DtcJ1 Yur issues remain, progress is being made. In
1996 .20
.10 .11 ..
.41 pardcuJar. produetJon volume at the facil1197
.22
.11
.12
_.
.45 ity is up about 3096 since the start of the
.24 .12 .12 . .48 year. and management is a1ming for an
.48 addItional 10% to 20% increase by year-

end. In addition. the decision not to make


a full maintenance shutdown in July. but
rather do maintenance of individual eqUipment on a selective basis. will keep interruptJons to a minfmwn while
helping to
boost output. With the continued focus on
cost control. while productivity
issues
gradually
get Ironed out, Improvement In
this segment
should contribute
to a
rebound in the company's overall margins.
thereby supporting
another strong advance in share net for next year. to about

=:::0) :!j ~!.~


2~:~~ ~~~~-rr::
~ :1:1 ~ r:f~~':~~;.~~~~~~
~~;
=~~
~~
~l ~:=.~t.om:~u~TQC~'= ~~;~:2~~~.~:;,,~-.nRd,OH
=nt
U8b.

17.:::::;;:====--=-=-='-::-7:;:';;:;-;;:;:';:;-/

5:m~

::

.'

291.4 281.' 265J


18.3\ 86' 14.5\
24.1 22.B 201
17.6

,"

BUSINESS: BlUsh Engineered Materials (bmer1y 8fUsh weiman)


iI IhI wcrtr. only fuly i'TtRgrD!d pnxIUCfr" anQ IUPpill" of beryl-

Recei'fables

1.9.1
62.2

1.14

"TlILRmJRII_
TII5

I,

1988 1989
16.69
20.03 19.66
~31
~62
324
1.79
M
1.38
.64
.59
125
1.'"
1.34
1.w
13.49 13.10 13.43
13.17

15.1

"

15~

'1~ ~

=1. :~~:~~:~~:~~

ennu'

$1.40.

These
shares
have
shown
some
renewed life in rec:ent
months.,
with
the 25% rise since our July report most
likely reflecting increased signs of an earnIngs recovery. Any hiccups over the coming
quarters, however, could result In some
additional
volatillty
In the stock's price,
But Over" the longer term. we look for annual share-net gains to average around
20% over the next three to five vp~rc. This,
in combination with the stock'~ ~
dividend yield. should help generate aboveaverage total returns over the period for
patient investors.
Marlo Ferro
October 27. 2000

(A) Pm.y. pre-1997, diluted 1hllr8KIB.


opnlDrlS: '89, 11j. Next
rep::l1 d1l8 Frilay 01' January, Aprt, JlJIy, and 0c0ber.
i~P.nJ' Fnandll ...... gIb
EJi::L nornani'lg gains (baBs): '84, 131; '85, late Cd.
lJ Div'd reiN ..stneut
pI!In ..... iIabll!l.
Stoc ..... Pr1c. StabIIItJ
(531); '89, 11;;
"", 1$2.52r, .... I9Ij; ~
ISI ..... ""_..-..
..... Dec. 1. """
(C/I._.
PrlcoC_
...('S1:01~ExcL gsm tr.m sall!l of discDntnued
8X aboUl Jan. 9. DWDenlJ PI)'fI'ent dirI8S: fnt
&1111. PradiicblblltlJ
II ZCIIll, YIlIe !.De ~
tnc. AI ~
resemd. FKWII I1111eri11I5 dIllined
fnII'II _
~
10 be ~
... is p1IIliIelI wl'-l ..ntr*s a! IIlJ Uxl.
TI1EPlJBUSHE.RISt:llR[~"ORNffERRORSOROMIS5lOf6HtRt.tThis~i551dyb~_,IIIIII~illII1II\lw.No~
I
1
I.
:If:
a! illMJ bit ~
....
~
..,. pMa. -.:nri: .. _!I:IlIl. (I 1l5lllll1ar'-'-'
III" ---.."
~
II" *draic
fU**I. RNct II" pocIta.

a+
65

IS

30
If'.

BURLINGTON RES. NYSEBR

1IIWIIBS
SAFTY

2...." .....
3'-"1'"''

SEtA

LCJW:

"C.'"
_

RQaIe,

200~rnOJ~

.... ......
,,.,.
........ "'" l~l

AM'Tmi

J'II

I:

15
50

53.9

49.6

33.0

3.5

33.1

54.5
39.8

53.5
35.\

'2.3
33.6

49.6
29A

II

",

11/1

II" I

'

""

....
'"

'". ::>'

" '',I"ll.I
"'

..

..

..

..

TotIl o.bI $2338 nil. DIl.1n 5 Yn $1370 mil


LT lnt..-st S211.0mil.
LT Debt SZ!38 mil
(Totalldlrest. earned: 6.51.)
("'''' "'Cap~
Leba., uncapltlRled
PRnslon

Annualren1a1s

$19.0 11111.

L1.b11tty None

PM Stock None
Common Stodr. 215,357,074 shs. (60% of Cap'~
MARKET CAP; SI.a bllion 11llTVR Cap)
CURRENT POSIT1ON
~IJ..J
Asse1s
Ree&ivllbles

1118

.-

Ca

Inventery

""'.r
Curront AuGts
Acds P8)'01ble

OIhor

402.0
33.0
21.0
456.0
37-4.0

~
494.0

Cumlnt uab.

,... """'"

89.0
499.0
53.0
26.0
667.0
449_0
199.0
648.0

16.0
552..0
52..
30.0
650,0
489.0
156.0

om;

ANNUAL RATES Put


11T,.,
of et8"91 (pw "j
-2.5%
Sa""
''Cash FIoK'
3.5'"

Pat &t'd'l7'.
tD1J-'I$
Un.
9.5"
2.5'"
2.5'" 10.5~
EBmilgs
-1.0%
3.0%
19.0"
DIvidends
5'"
"T
'5'"
Book VBlue
-2.5% -3.5'"
'.011
QUARTBII.' SALES~.-;
,
eo.
F"
IlT.31 Jun:3lI Sep
Dtc.J1 y.ndar
464,0 541.0 2OOIl.
1197 568.0 '21,0
1191 432.0 41l. 350,0 403 . 1637,0
436,0 455.0 541.0 62/,0 2065.0
2001 652.0 1i2O,0 696.0 7IZ rTM/
2001 IDD
77S
7511
725
EAlNNGSPERSflAREAE
FilII
.nliar Mld1
Jun.3G
Dec.J1
y,3f
11197
.14
.31
.60
l02
.
fl9l
.13
.'l7
.08 ..
..
.11
.28
.38
,43
.79
.13
150
.35
.75
2001
.95
.70
.60

''''
C,.

se~:ia

...,

.n

''''

ColRncI.r

u.

ll'JARlaU.'

OMlEIIIS PIID'"'
Jun.30 Sell.30 DKJ1

Mar,!1

,,38
.138
I.
.138
.138
.138
2001
~ _ ..... _h

".
v.,

,138
,138
,138
,138
.138
.138
,138
.138
.138
.138
. 138
.'38
,138
,138
.138
'906; , ...... '-'IT!3OI'
nDIIf1lCd".
pans lbsses):
'92, 24t;"93,
41t!; '95, ($2.39)
of SFAS 121); "97,
(231);'99, {7lljJ,
.,. tom ,is< """ '89,
1119&
1991

,'"

t:rtiDn

Co~.

...

""IN

THr~RIS'ClTRE.
d II
lie

.5S

.55
.5S
.5S

..

..

"1"1"1111

3D

.. ......
"

....

.. Tot
'

'"
,

t=:=~yrJ,...

iiiI

....... ........
..,.
RE1URIII1D1l1O

43
238

1U
300

85

10411

5yr

7.'

1990 1991 1992 D1993 199' 1995 1996 1:1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ~VALUElJjfPllB M:, O~!
13.56
3,63
U5
.TO
7.85
21..2

-m
221
1.6'
1870.8
36.8'
279.8
107.6
21;5'
11.11
66.T
1377.6
3024.3
6.0"
6....
3.6\
48'

13.34
3.70
1.48
.TO
6.13
22.11

8.86
320

'20

.60
2015
18.67
'28.

2[j

3H

1.61
1.8,

1.97
1.5%

1753.9
37.7'
289.1
197.04
23.0'
11.3\
d156.4
1547.9
2906,5

1141.4
43.510
256.0
156.4
6.710
13.7%
23,'
1002.5
2405.'

57'

57'

6n
3.6%

6."
2 ...

48'"

5"

'.63

165

8.34
3.89

6.89
3.14

10.35
4.81
2,02
,55
'-43
18.68

,,,

U5
'20
,55
.55
55
~27
~,65
6.97
20.11 20.30
17.54
29.
I 5
1 .57 1
JU
NMF
21.1
"2
,.0
22.
NMF
1.32
1.3,
12'
1.3'
1249.0 ,054 8 8725 1293.0
45.3" 59.1'
285.3 331.4 3726
346.0
1M2
1543
24.4 155.0
..
.. 16.9%
15.1~ 14.6\
L!'" 19.1\
d22.9
74.0
',1 d".9
819.1 1309.1 1350.3 1347.0
2608.' 2568.0 222D.4 2333.0
66~ 5.1\
2"
6.0%
1.1'11 10,'"
72'"
31% NMF
B.O%
.5'
NIIF
3"

1."

41" ..."
..

."
m

""

11.32
~.01
202
.55
7.06
17.07
.7
232
1."
12'
2000.0
56.1"
538.0
357.5
18,'"
11.9\
140.0
1748.0
3016.0
9.0'4
11.9"
9.4'
21'

.23
3.50
,48
.55
'~7
17.01
In,

M.O
4.37
1.4,

IUS
US
2541
.55

'.56
3.69

.n

f.

,.41
1.Dll
.55
4.111
'US

Sale .. ""
Cash Row" pit III
Enlnglpll"lh
A
DiY'dl Dld'd pw .....
pot'"
B,,*"""' .. ,,"

.55
~,08 "-~
15.03 '7./15
15.91 12fU11 12IDID
50,3
I-U- AviAnn'IP

2.8T

1..4,

1637.0 2065.0
27511
45....
57.1111
54,"
534.0 631.0
695
86.0 '66.0
535
9.5% 41,8'
5.3"
'.0% B.5l'
19.0
d38.0
541.G
t938.0 27&9.0 2<11
301s.o 3246.0
36541
3.2\
'~5l'
14.5l'
2.8\
5.1'
11.5%
'IF

Q.""

."
'"
n,

113\

~ u.,;
;.;; ~

22S

Cop'$pond'".

......

R_PIERdo

Avu

An", DiY'd Y'likt

57J1l1 I~~
725 0...... (:;'111

635

4.l.""

2Ull

Not Pro.. (1nI


Inc:onII Tu RD
NotProRt_

RmIMd

.55

'11/1
27.JJJ
120 ....

..

-..
US
.IS

5U"

I5IJ
7ft

fl.7'I

E"""

10 CCIII Eq
Nit. Prof

'IS AI DiY'dllD

"

5II.D W_.
Cop'Itlnlll
lDng1 ... llobI(lniIll
"00 Shr:E.1liIY(Inli'
ffJlll RidIn en 10lil elp"
115ll .......
SIr.
'2.5ll

17.55
7M
'AS

51J.G

llUll
12.5ll
1 ..,.

''''

I!IUSlNESS: Burlington ResoIRes lnc. is the second-8geSl


ildependent oil and gas c:rmpany i'I thII Unhd Stat.
il twms or
WOI1dwile proyed equivalent ~
iIfId produdiorl. Spun oI"f 8
Puo NabJ' Gas ~,
'92; -=qund louis.". Land & Expl'II.,
10/'97, Plx:o PIIIr., 11199. 1999 prudUdion: 92B b"" aJbi:: f88t or
gas equi'talBnt IBefe), 01 whid'l 79% was gas. 12199 pI'Ot8d ..

selW'S: 102 i'i1Dn cubic feet rI gas equivalent (Tde), 81" gas.
Rlilpbc:ed 142% or producIion i'l1999. Est. pes. val. at proved c.s.:
$6.3 biion..... about 1,800 .... pa, 26,000 stkhkln. 0h1 dO.
own .8" d stock; no 5" hotMrI (3JOO proxy). CImJn., PrB., &
CEO: BobbJ S. ShackDu". Inc.: DE. Addr.: 5051 W851hein&,
Houstx1, 1X 77056. Tel: 713-624-9500. Web.: WWW'.br-in:.com.

Burlington's
production
has contino
ued to decline ... TIl1rd-quartec prod~
uctlon of 1850 mllllon cublc feet of gas and
13,000 barrels of all a day was down about
15% for gas and 30% for aU from the 1998
avernges. The decllne was due partly to
BR's cutback. in drtlllng !n the shallow
waters of the Gulf of Meldeo and partly to
sales of oil-prodUcing properties. Well
depletion. however. also played a pan, as
a decline in output of coal gas In the San
Juan basin exceeded new production from
exploitation. Thus, the earnings gain was
due entirely to commodJty price increases
and unusually low exploration expenses.
... but we think gas output will bottom out in the next few quarters
Fourth~quart.er and 200 1 gas production
should hold at the thfrd-quart.er level as
new wells are hooked up and new processtng fadlltles come on stream. Next year's
oil production. however, is likely to fall another 20% or so, as BR is focusing on gas.
In light of the lackluster near-term volwne
outlook, the eanUngs gains we envislon
are based solei'; on our price forecasts .
New fields s ould start producing in
2002. Burllngton's Best oU procfuetJon jn

Algeria and additional


gas In WyomIng
and the East lrlsh Sea should start to flow
in 2002. A seconUhase
of development in
Algeria and a th
phase of the East Irish
Sea project could add to output by 2003.
Long-teon ~jects
bold considerable
promise.
e estlmate that Burlington's
propert1es have the potential to raise lts
proved reserves by around 30% over the
next five years. The Foothllls region of the
Canadian Rockies and. the deep waters of
the Gulf could yield substantial
gas 2003.
And farther out, the Mackenzie River
Delta on the Beaufort Sea rould bea
bonanza for BurUngton, though that would
requlre building a new BOO-mile pipeline
to get the gas to market.
Burlington stock.
though timely.
bas
below-average
appreciadon
potentiaJ .
BR Is emphasizing
long-term projects with
great potential
and high risk. and the
stock market appears to be discounting
that potential. In the meantime. though.
BR wlll also be generating good free cash
now for acquisltions, share repurchases,
and debt reduction, which might well
make our proJectlons prove low.
Sigourney B. Romaine
Nm'ember 2-1. 2000

,.""'"Y ......... ~ aa-'JCJ '.miI.

Com.'''f.'"""", _"'"

~1, 6;; 'U2. 51j; ~3, 'j ..... _.


'"
pi1: lB, _. Next 8lilL repat due Iirf8 Jill\. {DJ NWTlbersreIed
~
I Paso N8t- Stock's rk:e StabIJIJ
Meld div'd ITI\I. tIt. J.J.n. 17!hJ:
ex nlGu
in 1992. (E) 11Id.Ll&E fo .... 011997,
PrbGrvwth
PRI'UatMM:e
61h,
po ...... ,_
'"""
...
"""999,
~
-.ed. rDill
is aCOiIed IKm _____
10~ ....
.-I 6 P-felI..-.u ~
d ~ tm.
~

80

EO
50

I I

'"

u of 91301lICI

STRUCTURE

'00

15

..

Percent 1'.0
ab .....
12.0
1.1

"8

BUrlington Resources was organized in


1988 " functionas a holdingcompany for
the resources and energy businesses 01
BurtingtonNorthernIncorporated,one of the
nation's largest railroads. Northernsold 20
millionshares 01 Resources' sIllck, a f3%
slake, in a publ~ offeringin July, 1988 at
$25.50 each. NortherndlsfIibufedall of its
remaining holdings of Resources, 130 million shares, 10 owners of Northern comroon
in December,1988.
CAPrrAL

25.8

25

401.,

21.

r_rget Price Range


2003 200. 200'
125

"'6.3

- -- - --

InstllutioRl' DecisIons
223

47.6
29.S

~sa.n

, "1,,
.. ..

""
...."".

....:':~"56i~110'.~ 1~'02" ......


Dec::isiona
DJFIIA,IIJJA
114'00010
000
0 0 200
000002200

43.6

.10 (l.DO -1MrUt)

Inskler

43.8
32.9

36 .

LEGENDS
l.!ll !LIlli rmOp 5h
ReUM! PrEe ~

3....,"' ...

TECHNiCAl

50.1

53.
32.1

High:

w.tl2.0 )1~LATM:
Pf RAID. 0 92 DIV1l
YlD
1.3%
41 PfRAID 13 2 (Tliiin.'2tJ

I~CENT
PRICE

D,',

"'*""

,nt 1_'"

..,-

AI~
SIk.E QRAHYERRORSDROIIIISSK)NSHER[I(.1lKI.~iuQ:.y"~_,_~"",_,
SInd II nll!l"IIkd II
pi*'d, *thIic II dI8 IanII, II' I5cd b
. II ~
.

.-...

II"

BIanric:

II'

p1
plOd.

I',

B~
75
5
:

II:

'I.

CVS CORPORATION
NYSE.cvs
2....,...,

DIV'D
0.5%
Pf RAm 73 YlD
45 PiRAm 241 (Trliinilll ~FTNE1

I~CENT
PRK:E

Itdi."'.F

High:
Low;

TIIlEUIIESS

3 ... ,nl101
3 ....,.".

SAfIY
TCHNICAL
IETA

{1M-

21.1
18.2

35.0

lr..al"'tl~r __ p'lh
PIa s.mgU1

IiI!Ie

':.

I',

Pritt
GIlA
RItIIm
90
19%
60
+35%
'"
Insider Dac.lsions
NO.lf"A"JJ
420010000
00'
000
10 0
5. o 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Institutional D-elslon.

- 243

255

eo

40
24

20

....
..,. '02"
....
:::"1 ~~ 330~327~~.....
2n

....

'00

."

I"F

(1O~1

- -- - --

,,'

ftbIrJ,mi:wI

2OOU' PROJEC~~~ .
Ann'TuIaI

t':'

Rt8liote

2_''''

M1.~

r8rlll't Price R,ngll


2003 2004 2005

46.8
27.6

30.0

,.

LEGENDS
,

58.4

".0
30.'

19.5

10

....
.. .....

12

". ..
.'

... ........
""'" .... 8

'" TOT. RtT1JItIiI MMI

Pel"l:lllrt 15.0
.harws
10.0

"..
3"..
5 "..

5.'

-9.0

10'
38.'
'06 5

38.

..

"Consumer Value Stores" began in Mass. in 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19961997" 199B' 1999 2000 2001 eVALUE lINEPUB.IlC. OUS
.,
..
.,
.. 23,1.4 25.93 36.94 39.14 .46.17 SUIl SUO SIIn pII' III A
'63. The healthand beauty aids main grew
81'0
..
..
.. .73 1.08 1.11 1.91 2.29
to 17 storesin '64; i1s first pharmacyopened
3.0' ac.sh Flaw"pwlh
'.3D
..
..
.
.
..
..
in '6T. In '69, 1110chain was sold to Melville
.n 1.06 129 1.55 1.111 2.10 Eamklgs pet Ih
120
..
..
..
..
..
..
COIP.CVS embarkedon rapid mo de",~
12
ZJ
.23
.08
ZJ
.1f
.2' Dtv'dl DId'd pII' III C.
..
..
..
..
..
6.68
tD.GO
11.15 Book Val ... PI' III
opmenl program, complemenledby an ag5.76
6.ll2
725
IUS
..
.. .. .. .. 210..20 213..20 344.60 390.21 392.00 :lSO.1lO !U.DO CDlllrnonSits Outst'g !WlIl
grossiY. acqu~~ion policy,
including
..
..
.. .. .. .. V.7 24.5 32.3 29.3
Peopies Drugs ('90). In '95, MeiY~oroslrucAvgAnn'l PIE Ra1Io
n
..
..
.. .. .. .. 1.74 1.41 1.68 1.67
lured. On 11/19196, i1s name was changed
RIIIlIYIIP,IERdo
US
~
.. .. .. .. .. .. .3\ .II .6\
\0 CVS, rellectingi1s ongoingbusiness.
Avg Ann' Dtv'd YlIId
\

..

..

CAPrrAl STRUCTURE as ot7/1/OQ


Total Debt S1548.2mil.DIIti In 5 V... $990.0 mill.
LTlraml $39.5 mil.
LT Debt $558.0 mill.
Includes S1.5 mi. capialized 1Bases.
(12% orCap'~
(Total inIl!nlst coveralJ1t:16.4x)
lauu,
UnCllpibiiDd Annual rentals $474.1 mill.
Pension Ul,bllfty $6.0 mil. 1\ :19 n. $74.5 mil. in

..

..

...

..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

4330.1
28./\
5.71

"".0
21.9%
6.1\
.. 1366
!Ml.3 100.4
41.0"4 "'0%
2.1%
21\
.. 7623
.. 3ZI.7
..
.. 1547.8

U.

....

5528.1

28.0%

12736
27.6\
1.41
388ll
360.0
43.5%
3.0"
6!O.0
272.6
2361.4
14.8%
16.1\
14.7"
2ll\

6.8\
..
140ll
..
..
161.5
..
..
..
'0.6\
..
..
3.0%
P&t Stock $270.5 mil. PldDlY'd$15.oml.
..
..
..
1905
Ind. 5.1 mil ESOP aJI11. COnY
. ID. ($53.45 liqui..
..
..
303.7
dating value.) Each a:ffl. IrtD 2.314 com. shs.
..
..
..
1245.1
(6% of Cap'~
..
..
..
..
.. 6.1" 11.7%
Cammon Stock 390,666,755 .1Is. (82" of Cap'l)
..
..
..
.. 6.5% 13.5%
u tllBI7"'O
MARKETCAP: $17.' blliDn {urge c..p)
..
..
..
..
..
11.3'
CURRENT POSrrlON '''0
711100
..
..
..
..
.. N\If 36\
(lIIlL)
eo.........
180.8
230.0 182.5 BUSINESS: CVS CorporDon is 11'18nlfliofs largest arug dlim, i't
699.3
759.1 nwnber of locations, wrth 4,090 drugstDnl'S (1IcL P'rtJCaoe) i1 29
Receivables
650.3
31902 344.5.5 3500.1
Inventory (FIFO)
321.' 233.2 L19.7 sillies, manly i1 Nc:II1h&asI:, Mid-Attanti:, SouU".I:, .1Id I.li:twesl:
regions, alXl D.C. (alo MJO~ N8w IlDres a'lIIiI. ilbl 10,500 &:I1IiInl
CulT8nt AS!I8t5
4349.2 4608.0 4721.4
1454.2 1103.9 fa ~ IBading share II mc.ct aI b IiugslCQ markets. Rec:en1
Accts PayablG
'286.3
OebtDue
785.7
468.3
988.2
acqs. indo Arbor DnIg (3198) and Revm OS (5.97). OpIntes 111.:11111.3
967.4
956.2
0lI10f
3183.3 2889.9 3048.3 CVS is one of the top perfonnel'S
CulT8nt liab.

....

..
..
..

..
..

..

..

..

"""

''''

Oth.,

--""..,

ANNUAl. RATES

.at
llYn..

S.IM
''Cash FJaw"

,,~ .......
Pu1 &t'd'l7'11

..

..

..
..
..

Eami'tgs

Dividends
Bcd:Y1I1U1!l

......

12.5%

. 14.o"
. 16.0"
2.5"
. 17.5"

...

QlJARIBIlT
SALlIS~
FilII
lIar,Per Jun,Per Sep.Pu Dec;.Pe
3161
11117 3161
3080 3336 Z738"
1191
!602 3756 3725 "91 15274F
4240 4362 4312 5184 l!098
4740 .943 417.
2&2SD
20111
5S25 WS Z2f(JfJ
EARNINGS PER SHARE.
Co.
FilII
lIu.Per Jun.Per se:Per Dec;.Per v_
E1.oo
.JIl
1m
.29
.25
.21
.32
.36 F 1.26
1191
.33
.25
.46
1999
.40
.30
1.55
.40
,35
.52
I.lIIl
.47 .46
,4l
.111
20111
.55
2.10
.54
QlJARIERLT
0_
PAIlCo
Co.
Full
lIu.31 Jan.30 SeD.30 Dec.31 Voa,
..
..
.. .055
1996
.06
1997
.055
.055
22
.055 .055
1991
.055
.055
.23
.058 .058
1999
.058
.058
23
.058 .058
CoJ-

--- -

,.
....,
......

.058

.058

.058

(along with Walgreen) in the d"'8


chain industry. CVS is galnlng market
share at an impressive rate, thanks to an
aggressive expansion plan and large opportunistic acquIsItions. It now holds top
market-share positions in about 80% of Its
operating territories, and plans LO scce1erate store openings" with added emphasis on new-market entries. Indeed,
CVS expects to enter the Important Chlca~ market (Walgreen's home base) with Its
t two stores In the fourth quarter,
several months ahead of the prevIously announced schedule. Another long-tenn goal
is to Increase the nwnber of highly productlve freestanding drugstore prototypes
It operates, many featuring dr1ve~through
phannades and extended hours of operalion. By mld-<lecade, CVS expects 80% of
Its drugstore base to be freestandIng, up
from the current mix of about 35%.
We look for CVS to ~rt
ZOOO
share
net of around S1.80.
eetlng solid topline growth. especially
on the J'hannacy
side, cost..cUlting benefits. an
further
syn~
from recent large-scale acquisItlons.
e gross margins may erode a bit

'_I'-

don'

15214
V.O%

~-:
"

- -

18098
26.9\

1.7"
.,22

1'"

...

'"'

W_.

"""

lie""
~s

OR ANYERRORS OR OMIS&ONS H[R(IN. This plbIicailln is 5h::Iy Ii:r


i1qfIIIIM. lIIeari:. CIlI.-IDmI,. .lMIIlDr,..,..r.g 11" .....

--

""'"

26.",
1.3\

..

1!DO
40.0\
\

75/l
7'5Il
If-'"
17.0\
11.0"

!\
i1g Web de, CV5.mnL Pl1Ilmlacy (Rx) conlJibu1Bs illll 62" rJI
sales; 3nl-party, 89% of Ib sallis. Has about 100,000 "ptly.,
11,200 shrlildrs.. FMR Corp. owns 12.8% rJI COfI'IIDI stx:t: otrars
and dnctn,
2.9% (3.1Xl proxy). Cham.n, Prvsicl&rrl & CEO:
Thomas U. Ryan. Inc..:DE. Addnss: OIKICVS Oriv&, W~
RI 02895. TelephOlll!l:401765-1500. irlt8rn8l:: www.CVS.a:m

more due to the large third-party drug_


r.lan com~ent
of Its phannacy business
89% of
revenues), stronger front-end
(nonphannacy)
~s
should
provide
some offset, while h ping to support. operating
margins.
Acoonllng1y,
our
2001
share-net estimate stands at $2.10.
The
acquisition
of
Stadtlander
Pbarma<:y strengthens CVS ProCare's
position
in the highgrowth specialty
phannacy
business. This underserved
sector (which caters to patients In need of
costly specialized drugs and therapies) Is a
$14 bUUon retail and mail-order business
that is gr~
by 20% a year, and has the
potential to a d $2 billion to $3 billlon to
CVS' revenues by 2004. Stadtlander will
be earnings neutral this year, but should
contribute $0.02 to share net in 200 1.
CVS shares are ranked to outperl'orm
the year-ahead JDal'ket. But, after advancIng J 8% in price over the last three
months, the stock's 3 to Syear priceappreciation potential is now below the
l4:u'ue Line median, despIte the favorable
earnings growth we project for CVS over
that extended time period .
Maurice Leo.'en5On, CFA
Odober 6. 2000

M'l'
M__

IAj""""'''
CVS ""~ .... '" 10116196;
TJI, 51 '99 qtn.
"on .... obl4lh _ Fob.,
A""., N",.' Do" _
C"'P~F",""'Sbon'"
B From ~n.
oper.; bill18d on lvg'. IQ. to changes., evg. sin. Nul egs. dlHl 0t::L 30. vest. plan aval (D) n ma, alij. for stoct split
Stock's riel Stabllit)'
tlw '96, dl after. Exd. nonftlCU".iIBmS: '95, (C) CVS ont)'. Next: div'd mtg. abt Jan. 10. (E) Pro fonnIlor RiM:o ilIcq. IF) Ind. Arbor,
Price GrowIlt,......nca
l6O); '96, ~; '7, (95j); 'YO,(",,). E""- ". ""'"
",,".bI. Od. ,& 0 ... """""'" ._,
"".3/31196. (0)
Rom>, 5129197. ~
c 1000, ....
lM ~~
re5IIIftIl'. fKClBl' IIIIBiII is ~
1'nInI BRa ~
10
1M it. fIorilell ......
~
III ~
tDcl.
TH[ PU1L15tR IS MlT R[
iii I.,
be ~
SIlIIIllI.~

..

22100 Saln ($mil) Ii.


26,'" 26.'" ..... Mq..
a", Opdn;lIqh
7.81
7-'"
Numbor" S1<ns
"Ill
510.1 635.1
745
If> Not """l"""
40-011 IncoIHTuRD
41.3% 41.0,," 40,'"
3.5% 3.'"
3.3%
NI1Pnlllll ...
Cop' ($nI1IIJ
1165.9 1718.1
f7iJ4 f!IM
275.7 568.S
57S
65lI ...... , ... Dob1($n111)
3110.6 3679.7
41&5
S111.-......
'S.. ;nj
15.4" 15.4" ILI>\ "-OIl RI1lIm 011 Total Clp'
Rlblm lilt Shr. E~
16.4% 17.3'1. laO\
16.9:
1....
R.tIdaId 10 CCllll Eq
14.4" 15.~
16\
20'4
13" AI DlY'clIll:l NI1PtoI
21J2S1)

-. l\iMoCGfII=CWl. ftImIl_.
pIfI
q piIII!Jd.1IIla:tnrir poM:au, ssvice lI" IftlU:1.

I '.

A
55
85
:

It:

I I'

CAMBREX CORP. NYSE.csl


1IffiJI[SS

3 -." ....

WEll

3 ...'"""

Nixl

Price
Gain
75 (+tD5"tJ

Ann'RRIm
TlltaI

"C,,'"

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
005
102 025
007
1 150
1 7

Instilullonlll Decialon.

'01" ,
55
55
44
'963'
'999'
1985
1986
1987

P.rcllnt

72

..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..

...

CUITlIl'lI Ass8tI
Ac:ds Paylbl.
De" DuO
O!ho'
CulTlll1tLiab.
ANNUAL RATES

d .........

Rsvunues
''Cash Flow"
Eamin~
Oividllnds

Book Value

.....
c

l11t7
1998
IIItO
2000
2001

3.0

1988
729

6S

...

",,,,.1'1 ...
..

..

..
..

;:;

..

..

".5

57.0

.00.3
25.7
23 .5
63.5

''''
39.B

Co.

ll1tO

,.,.
2000
2IJt1

Co.

.ncIu

11197

1999
2000

65.5
71.1

722

'2.'

'00.6

30.9

31.0

Zl5.3

2682

57.6

3.0

".5
.2

3.3

37.3
80.0

--!! --n:;
752
11.2

Put

....t &t'd "17-'11

1nl:l.
9.5%
16..5%
15.5%

_.

8.5"

n..
7.0%
19.5'4

23.0"

10..5%
15.0'4

10'13-"
6.5%
11.5"
t5.5~

1'1'--e.nng..- .....
"'8.
fio~bsseI):
'98.
"Its

..'"

13..5%

QUAR1!RI.YREYEMIES ~ oIllA
11,.31 JUI.30 SlpJO DecJ1
93.1
10Q.8
al6 !f1.7
l,lO
114.5 102.6 lD5.2
l1B.3
121.3 11[9 122.7
128.7 125.1 113.7 l1U
13$
1:1S
135
131
EARNIIIOS PBl SH.lRE.
Jun.31 Sep.30 Doc""
.37
.32
.31
.30
.43
.38
.39
.4'
.47
.47
.40
.38
041
.55
.43
.45
.SlJ
.SlJ
.51
.S7
QUARTERLY DJVI)BmS PAl) C
,Jl Ju .30 S.p.30 1ltc.31
.D17 .D17 .025 .025
.025
.025 .025 .025
.025
.03
.03
.025
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03

...., .".It
111t7
1998

Fu.
y",
374.2
434.3
477.2

415
525
F

y.,
. 1.30
1.59

1.n
U7

2.1$
Full

y..,
.06
.10
.11
.12

- -- - --

"

~,cr-~I'

.. ...

III"

.......

..

.'

1997
199.
1995 1996
1998
13.25 15.92 15.30 15.93
18.01
1.48
l58
1.&9
2.41
3.34
.58
.98
1.19
1.59
'.30
.07
.10
.11
.tJT
.06
1..4
1.'l8
1.53
1.78
'.1J1
5.59
B.44
9.62
11.48
9.75

"...

""'
11.9

lLO

.78
.9\

.80
.6%

241.6
3572
15.3'10 19.4%
15~
25.
11.1
34.1%

4.6%
19~
116.0

19.7

JOn

5.5%

7....

69.B
99.

." "...
,....
9%

7%

10.9%

13.u 15~
.92
.Bl
.5%
>%
359.4 31.42
2O.B% 21.9\
31.1
28~
282
31.B

31.0%

189.5
8.11
10.41
9.7%

'02.0
621

DiJtBd

50

-.

40
30
2S
20

111'

...

....

'25
'00

31.8%

8>%

62.'

116.8

60.2
229.1

194.3
226.0
B.'"

10.8"

12.31
11.5%

"

14.1%
13.0%

7%

".n
16.0
.83

.4%
434J
20.7%
40.1
40.4
36.5%
9.3%
156J
191.4

276.9
9.8"

19.39
3.51
1.72
.12
124
,lOO

".,

152
.88
.5%

13.6%

9.4"
14.9%
13.9"4

7%

7%

14.61

..".".

11M
111
U1
.13
I.
1135

3 ".

DB

14.1!1

21.'

82.,

50.'

"'.S

2001
2Ul Rl'fIauei pII' 1ft A
t15 "Cull Flow" ~ III
21$ EInImg. ,., D
.14 DI"ds Ded'd pII' th e
1.55 Ct!>''''-''~III
1115 BOOk YIIut pIl" III

.......

::~
17-'"
....... ...
45

..-

,.,

,-'"
14-'"
11'"

'"

I- 7.5

~
~

AYII Ann'

1/11
.17

2115

11.'

R_pn;Rdo

A",

An'" W'

1.15
"'1

RrMIc.(W)A

D~~I)
5U NltPrvl1
JUll BCGIDITu RdI
11.1'1 NIt Pnlll ....
215
Ct!>'IInIll

...

U,

,. ZI."''''

2UI

J2.'"
1a.1%
231

",.

'DU
I g VAl.IJE lJNE PJIl, Ij(;. D345

......~...

4772
23.%
413
".1
3171
'2%
1632
225.'
295.4

......
...

% Tat RE1URtI1MID

w_,

110
n",
f1II
I
J2.51
10%
55lJ

...

m .... ,T... _~'

.225

SI"._I~

Rrun 1MToIIi' Carp'


14.51 RIbn"'S.._
'''I Retained III ten Eq
B AI Dlw'dl III NIl Prof
lQ.41l

1=
115'.
11'"

31

".5 )leln.

SUSINESS: Csntnx Cap. msnufac:tum Special)' and me


dBnicals 1100 biuIlIdilUkJgyproducts andSlni:es. ThIn are fMf
producl con.gories: ediwt phimliJC*lI.ical ~,
phannac:8Uical m~,
crgani: i'rtEIrnedlDs, t*fciiiblt& 8l'lhlncen,
and polyIr8" syAtms. Acquinld BioWI1bI., Inc (101'97). FCI8ign
salas Mn 36"" rl '99 blat; RID, 3.1 .... Deprac;:iItixIr.nr. 9.6 ....

H:ls aboUl: 1,340~,


",370
sb:khottws. OI'JcrsJdn.
own about 16.6'Jt rl c:anm:n; Capital
~,
10.3%; SMAl..LCAP WcQ:I Fund, 5.5'" (4100 Proxy).
Channan:
Cyril C. Baldwil Jr.; Pns. & CEO: ~
A. UKk. Inc..:
DE. Alkhss: One MeIIdawIiInlis PIm., 151h Fil:D, Eat Ruther'foId, NJ 07073. Tel.: 201 804-3000. IniImIIt: www.Cl!ITlbrBX.am

Cambrex's revenue and earnings momentum has slowed in this year's second half. Third-quarter net sales slipped
about 3% from the prior-year figure. The
shortfall sterruned from several factors. ineluding the effect of CWTency translations
(foreign sales are being convened from
eurns to the relatively 5trong
U.S. dollar)
and defen-ed orders as phannaceutlca1
customers continued to Wind down generic
drug inventories that were accumulated
earlier In the year. Th~ strength of the
U.S. dollar has also placed Cambrex's
products at a disadvantage to its European competitors.
Sales in the Human
Health segment (which a.c<Dunlfor nearly
5C1Kt
of the total) have t..rended below yearearUer levels. MargIns are also being hurt
by higher raw materials costs. particularly
In the AnImal
Health/Agriculture
5Ogment. Prtceprotect1on agreements have
prevented CBM from passing the higher
costs on to customers. but management expeets to recoup most of the expenses next
year. In all, we have lowered our earnings
estimates for this year and 200 1 by $0.18.
and $0.15. respectively. to $1.87 and $2.15.
The longer-term earninp prospects

remain bright. Over the past several


years. Cambrex has been shifting its sales
mix from specialty chemicals (which are
used primarily by industrial end marl<ets)
toward more stable and profltabl:ulharmaceutlca1 and biotechnology p
uets.
Gross profit margins In CBM's Human
Health and Blosdences dlvlslons are about
40%
and 50%,
respectively. compared to
about 20% for the company s other
businesses. Despite the recent operating
problems. the outlook for the life sciences
businesses appears vety promising. Increased research and development spend1n8 by pharmaceutical
companies and a
growing number of patent expirations for
brand-name drugs suggest rising demand
for CBM's teneriC drug Ingredients.
nus stoe
has fallen in re5fton5e to
the recent operating diflieu ties. The
company's ongoing expansion Into the
promising biotechnology Industry should
support steady revenues and earnlngs
gains out to 2003--2005. Despite the recent
pullback. however, the stock price appears
to Incorporate
much of the eamings
growth that we project to that time .
Gerard Feenan
November 24. 2000

r I)"'""'" ,...... ""......

fstinaEd planf sgs:

Jon. 20.datiII:
Goes 10' In.........
Or.- s,"'.
EKctldeS ~
ax -"out Feb. B. DNidImd bout
P6)'ITII8f1t
'90, (7'91;"97, {57~
4;"99, about the 20th CI Fer:rn.y, MIY, AlJ,gust, Ind
2 ~ Nu1 earnings .. port dlJll ~ JaIL
NowITtler.
CI 'la, Ylt.ieliIe ~
1'SIdI. FMIIIIl ....,
i5 otUftd rr- ~
~
tD be niItR _ i5 ffOi*I ~
..,-aIlIies Ii' ~ UMI.
Tll[f'\JBUStR IS NOTR[
OR"," [.RRORSOROMIS~HR[ ... n.sflUlllall:llli5sR:1yb'~~.~nlmllise.
~
Ii , be I!paIIPd. !I3Nd II' ~
il." pW*=d. ...
a dtB ...... a UMId b' ~
a IMIteliIJ .., ~
II' eledIa'ie pIlbIian. 5S'Iite II' pvGd..
B

T.ruet Price R8ng.


2003 2004 2005

51.S
29.0

I 'I,tloll

----,.1"

50

5h .....

.. ".41

ca:'~

="""

0.4%

YlD

35.'
20.5

, .3

15.9

.IF

RllceiYables
(FIFO)

29.'

lII'I'Il

,.

,~..

2.2

17.4
12.9

136

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
7.83
9.83 10.26
Il59
Il"
..
.f;]
.59
.52
.79
.l6
1.15
1.30
..
.1B
.00
.42
.55
.42
'.re
..
.02
.07
.07
.07
.07
..
.46
.45
.45
.50
.63
.!i!l
.32
5.19
5.00
4.6
5.08
4.88
521
5.59
..
1 .15
1.
1O.Of
..
..
.. 11.0
21.3
11.,
ll1
'02
..
..
l07
.62
.74
1.00
.70
.3% l5%
1.1,%
2.7%
1.5%
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE. of 8/3G1011
133~
119.5
191.2.
'''0
. TatlIDebt$226.2mi1.
Duein5YI'Io$190.0ml.
92%
5.7% 134% 14.4%
LT InterBt $12.0 mil.
LT Debt $225.0 mi.
7i
10J
11.
7i
Ind. $5.3 nil capilelmd leases.
62
B.6
(TcU.11'IIInst aM!fliiIglr. 7.OX)
(42"" atClp'Q
'IM' 40.0% 39.5% 3M%
.0%
3.51
4.4%
Lases,
UnClpltlraad Annuall8ntals $1.5 mil
39.5
31.3
35.9
380
18.5
39.8
19.0
lBJ
PId Stock None
69.2
68.7
752
87.6
.2ll
1.6%
8.Hli
Common Stock 25,069,828 shs . (58%"'ca,~
.OE
.0% 8.3l rlPJ1/OO
IIIARKET CAP: $12.5million (&nail Cap)
NOE NMF
8.7'10
'.0%
tI3Oo<lO
CURRENT POSrrlON
110B
NOE "'IF 151
11%

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

reaoSJiDn

'./

..

14.5

Pf RAm

(+35%

DJF_"'MJJA

1984

'.1

lnaider Decision.

I=::'I

i:19')jFlM

20%

.::::-..,
..., ..... ,_.. ...... ...... .
50

,5...

19 6(''';in
lIodi .. : IU

Pf
RAm

6198
_

2OQ3.lI5 PROJE"'!O~S

:%'

I.'

2.'

3.3
1.3

37

3.fDr-1!ip1il 1M

oM (1Jll)_MIIllI)

IETA

'.1

'.3

LEGENDS
9.0 1 [tIll! F.Op
_ ReIMe PTQ Slrmgll

3_ ..._

TECHNICAL

5.5

High:
Law:

I~ECENT
PRICE

C""'"1.' F~,"""

~..
rice StlblIty sa"""",
Prica Growth ~rsIdMIce
Eamlnp P~
I

,.,

: II:

B+
80
100
85
II

CARAUSTAR IND. NDQ.cSAR


5 _~nl"

lIIIEUJI[SS
SAFElY

TE~ICAl

BEl),

_,1ClIF 1'1~FATrIE
P RATIO 0 61
12 PRATIO 8 6 (TrO\rf:

I~ECEKT
PRICE
High:
Low:

I
iJlien's

d ..

,,,.

...

42

~rc:dt

'52"

Common Stock 25,842,110 Ihares (45% 01 Cap'!)

!tARKEr CAP: $300 mllion (Sm_1IC_pl


CURRENTPOSmDN 'III
In'

'-,
76.4

75

8.2
154.7
-47.0
20,1

Cumlnl. Assets

""'"'

CUmlnt Liab.

....

ANNUAL RATES

"_IPo'"'1
,

,.,7
1198
1919
200G
2001
Co!-

.....

1991
1997
1198
1919
200G

.48.3

127.4

--

..
..
...

'-.

122.9
106.3

10.9
2"3.0
70.1
16.7
46,0
""TI2]

.~:~

103.3

.....

~~s
Book Value

'.7
227.1

3D,2

1IYrL

''Cash FIow"

....

18.8
106.8

Past Est'd'l7.'.
Un.
16.0%
9.0"
16.5%
7.0"
9,,",
8.0"
6.0"
22.5%
26.5%
7.0"

to"'''

.-"",

lIIJ,\IilfRl.f SAlIS ~ oAI


Mar.31 JUIl.3D Sep,30 DK.31
157,6
'5OB 173,7 176,0 668,1
189.7 188,S 181.8 736.9
'76,9
890,1
241.3 248.7
'87,6
2'25
ID4IJ
260,9
Z64
255.' ZfII
113D
ZIIJ
ZIIJ Z9S
EARNI1IGS PER SHARE'
Full
lar.31 Jun,30 S,p.30 Dtc.31
2,05
.47
.50
!iT
.5'
.52
.50 lll4
.52
.50
,46
,36
,40
,41
1.63
,25
,'51
13 ,411 1.15
$J
I.ID
All
AS
AS
QUARTER1.V Dl'r'l)END$ PAm
Full
IIlr.31 Jun.30 SID.3D Dec.31
,48
,12
,12
,'2
,'2
,14
,14
,14
,14
,64
,15
,15 ,16
,'6
,72
,18
,18
,18
,'8
,18
.18
.18
.'8

ns

111'"

,
I

'1.1

....
....

2DO.
100

.-

.-..

32

- -- -

24

20

"

1'01'
0"".

..

"

..

..

... ......
...

",
,

% TOT. RETURN WOO


'f'.
, 'f'.
5 'f'.
t

1995 ~1996

..-53.5
63.6
-352

15.4

25>

91.6

1997 1998 1999 2GOO 2D01 VALUEU1EP1J8


IIC, OUI
26.38 29.86 34.92 ".10 4J.1S SIlu,.1h
SU'
3,63
3,35
3.5.
4,10 -Calli FJow" per Ih
Ul
3.67
1.63
U5
1.10 E.-nInp pII' Rt A
2,45
lDe
2.05
2.04
..
..
..
,72
,64
,72
.76 DiY'd. DKrd pII' III
.1l
.Ill
.J5
..
.. .58
1...
1.40
f.1Il
.85
DO
1.43
1.65
'-'5 Cop"llf-dinpporoll
..
,.SO
8.45
5.46 10,93 fU. 12. B.YaIuI ~ sII c:
I1SO
1.93
l'"
..
4 7
5
2t2II c........
s
p
..
..
15.3
151
143
15~
fd
113
A'I
Pft' Roo
..
.87
.so ,r! ,79 ,74 .BB
.74
RI81iY. 'If Ado
.J5
..
.. 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 2.2% 2.9%
Avg Ann' DiY'dY,*
2.IlI
668,1 736~
890.1
270.7
276.0
11140 IUIJ SoIn 1$niII~_
1375
308.7 342.5 431.2 544.' 602.7
15.0% 13,5% 1m
,.0\
23.6% 21.4" 20,'" 11.B" ,'3%
18.1"
17.1" 20.8% 19.4%
__
(looM'
8.3
25.3
38,7
527
ft.O
UIJ
9.4
12.5
14.5
17.7
33.7
"-0
22.8
57.9
51.1
41.1
3Z.IJ
82.0
21~
2U
273
355
43.0
51.8
45JJ Nel.... lllkoi1J
35.9% J7,""
365% 31.9% 31.5" 35.7% 38.4% 38,0% 38.4% 36.61J6.OlI 1nCCll'M Tu RIll
36.7"
J5,""
8.41
7.7'4
8....
7,9% 9.6'
8.1%
8.2'4
7.1"
7,'"
4.'%
UlI
Cop1(looGl)
rj4:7.6
99,7
1.4
46,4
71.9
51.4
165
110
I4IJ
4,'
4U
46IJ
43.'
1455
126.0
935
212.1 229~ 409.7
83A
935
93.4
933
JJ5 Lang-'", DItII (niD)
J7'
ZOO
d66.4 d68.7
74.4 1023 1391 170.6 213.9 233.4 278.5
2tO
J15 SIlr.-...... 1$niIII
420
47,'
50,2% 51.3% 23.7" 19.4% 21.0% 20.9% 24.K
7.8%
13.7% 12.9%
RIUm on loti! CIp'I
'2J1ll
.. 52.4" 36.7% 34.n,
33.910 23,""
22,2% 14.1% fl."" 14Jfll R.......... ,E_
10'"
.. "-4% 26.1' 25'% 232% 26,"" 17.4% 15.3% 8'%
-R_1IiMd 10Com Eq
4,'"
'JIll
..
.. 29% 25% 25% 21% 27'4
44%
9%
44ll AU Div"dI aD NIt Prof
3'"
BUSINESS: caraustar 1nduStr'i!s,lnc. opemles in tee busineSS
HilS about 6,000 snpIoy8es, 4,500 51oc1lho1der.1.
OI'IaarsIdired.m
own 42% of outnlndilg amnon; Capital Group Cos., 6.0'4;
groups: AU:yCI8d 11M COIMIfIed papsboilnt (43.1% of '99 .. Ies);
tubes, CCI'eI and tompOSU a:IIIIal1Bn (26.1'4); and cwbIs and
Shaprn CIiIptal ManagerT1lilnt, 6.3%, (3.UI PnJJ;y). Cha"nnan: Rus.
Qlsbn packaging (30.8%). Am ~lIC2s
gypst.m _lboMI
lei M. RobOson 11.Prw:siQ.nI _nc1 CEO: 1lIornB V. Brown. Inc.:
facing paper. In 2000, 37% d RlC)dBd PlIperboard US8dmwnat;'. NC. Adibss: 3100 Washington Sb8et, P.O. Bale 115, Auste', GA

--

--..

13.72
1.19

1994
17.00
l.!II
1.38
,38
1.16
4,05

'~

..
..

21.54
2.40
1.66
.42
1.11
5.51

24.37
3,41
218
,48

-~An.,

,,,, ,,.

~.::
.... ::::

..

~~,

..
..

Oplntas 85 "anb

_.

"'" .d....
w_.I1._

"" 1""

"""

11 lie U.S., AIsil'.i:o Md file UnJad KiJgdI:m.

3D1D6. T8IIltpIlone: nD-948-31D1.lntsmet

""

WWW.Cllaustar.a:m.

Caraustar's
near-tenn earnings prospeets have recently been hurt by
several events .. _ Flrst, the cost of the
company's basic raw material. recycled
paper fiber, is well above the current price
for this product. Management expects
sales or this high-cost inventory to trim

amicable settlement cannot be reached.


CSAR hopes to establish or expand relatlonshJp:s.with other companies. Moreover,
:it also expects margin improvement next
year, thanks '0 both higher
sel1lng
prices
throughout its product line and a fall in its
raw material costs. Also, the company has
earnings
by about
50.10
a share
In the
spent a lot of money renovating plants to
third quarter. But planned increases in
both Indiana and COIUlectlcutto be more
efficient and to produce a larger volume of
sel1lng
prices
and
the e1lm1natlon
of this
inventory should remove thJs negative fac- higher-margin products.
lor by lhe fourth quarter.
Second.
profits
Recent
acquisitions
should
hell:.
at the company's jointly owned Temple- Caraustar's
g~phlc
expansion. t
Inland mlll in Indiana have been hurt. ~ just &urchased
noisbased Crane Caroperating ineffidencles. Finally. a leg
bon
mpany and Michigan-based Arrow
dIspute
with Georgla
PaclJlc
(GP)
will Paper Products. The company has made
llkely lower eaITling."imodestly in the com- I 2 acquisitions over the last three years,
log quarters.
G-P Is obUgaled
10 buy gyp- and
we ~
this program to be
maintained_
araustar's cash now should
sum
facing
paper.
a hlgh-margln
product.
from Caraustar. but now G-P is refusill8 to be adequate to both support this program
continue under the stated terms.
and to reduce long-term debt_
.. _ and our estimate of improved
This
untimely
stock
may interest
eannngs in 2001 is clouded. at this speculative
investors. Our projections
juncture.
Caraustar's gypsum m.llls were
Indlcal.e
that by 2003-2005.
earnings
will
operating at full acadty
until the con- be at record levels. Also, we expect the
tract dispute with
P. It Is working to stock's PIE ratio to deddedly improve rrom
minlmize long-tenn effects and expects to its current depressed level.
recover Its losses in full from G-P if an Joe R. I>I1s
October 13; 2000

gaJ.

Next dlvdend IIWriing lilbout ~


21. ~) Ind. i'TtangibleS in "99: $140.7
(AI ~
.-nilgs
ItI'lxIgh 1996; dilutad
S21Sh,
lhenlidl:..
Iud8S extraordinlill}' loss: 'OO-Q 1,
ex aboul Dea!mber 15. Apll'01 clMdencl
PIiIyrnenl datas: Jan. 7, Ap. 7, July 7, Oc:l. 6 . (D) In mklns.
S.17. Hex! esmi1gs nqxd due ~e Qctlbllr.
Djy'd rM1v. plan avaiable.
CI zaJlL ~
I.iIe ~
~
resened. fldtJt/ __
I is ~
rn. _
~
ca be ,...
IIIl' is fIM*!d IIifaIf .....a d
TllE.P\llUStIIIS
Ml1 RE.
d 1..,- b!1IIpIUIkdl.. 5llnIIl or ......

- --

10"

luses, Uncapltalzed AnnUli rentals $8.5 mil


hnsion Liatlility None
PId Stock None

""'or

2003 2DO.

,.,

CAPfTAL STRUCTURE as of II3OJDO


TobIl Dtbt $286.4 mi. Du.1n 5 Yrs $85.0 ml.
LT DeDt$2S9.7 mil.
J.T Inwat $25.0miU.
(Elfd LT I'IlBnlst earned 3.OJ:; EsI"d total interest
aMlIiIIgelQx)
(55%afCap1)

ReceIVables
I~(F'FO)

Target Price Range

I.
I,'

Tube and AIIantic Coast Carton Company,


Th. company inrorporaled ilNorth Carolina
on January " 1980, On OCtober " 1992,
lIvough Goldman, 5act1s & Co, and Kidder,
Peabody & Co., 9.6 million shares were sold
10 the public al $15 oatil,

=~bIe

6.0%

23,5
10.3

30.'
19.8

;--"

".".".

--

eo.
.nd_r

--<.

.h.....
3. 1~'"
Caraustar Industries traces its roots 10 1990 1991 1A
1938 as the Carolina Pap", Board Corp, In
1253
-. .. 1.39
the 1950's and ,960'5 the company .ntered
..
.. 1.26
new mar1<.ts by purchasing Star Pap.r

Co!_ncl_r
1997
1.
1991
200G
2001

11111'

0 0 0 1 000
0
000
0 0 0 0 1 0
II Sill
000
000
0 0 0
Institutional Ded.lons

Ca:~

22.0

ItP,IfM",.JJ

38
42
178~ 15793

36.0
20.5

/l!'SSIiln

..,.

38.1

37.3
18.6

_ R~Pril:eSlRngll

"l:'d: ...

i:235~1

::::'1

13.3

23.0
15.8

7.IJJ"Ca5llr"'p5fl

2OQ~5 PROJE~~S
Ann' TDbI
Priu Gain
Rebim
Hip
40'
38"
L..
25 +110% 2""
Insider Decision.

- ..

22,5
15.0

!lJ)

LEGENDS

,,"ln1B9

'-'d ....
JLI (l.oo-Nalt.l!l)

....
....

20.3

19.9
15.0

IlIVD

ORIIl't ERRORS OR 0IM5.SIONSHEREIiI. TIlis~i1.~fDr~


iI .., pritN. --.:
G" IIlIB kInL G" Il5elIIb gII'IdiIlf a ~

InJ ~

_.-.cOline
Cf -.mrie

mil,

:11:Od.

...... iall!lmlluse.
OP"t
pIlbIicItiaII, sena Cf pr1IUl.

Company's Flnlftdll Strwngth


hick's Prlcl Stability
PriQ Grvwth PwsistMlcl:
E_mlngs PrRdabilty

7Q

3S

60

CARLISLE CO'S NYSEcSL


I ".;
3 -." 102MIl
3 "'"'"'"J!l
3 -." """

TIW.IIESS

SAfElY

TECHNICAL
IfTA

.is

LEGENDS
10.0 ~ 11:1511
. . .. RellliR I"n:f

2.fur-l 51* il93

CI.tlO. MalUl)

2.. -1 ~

AM,TaI:II

...,

Price

GMl~\

11.9

'0.2

'.1

. 7

173
11.5

8.8

7A

18.1

15.1

~D&.
511
s-m

""

11'll1

.........
.,

Insider Decision.

.. ,- '01" t~'"

,-

,ul'.l'

"'

82
66

'''''

..

. ~l

0"

.'.

8.D

.....

9.5"
.,,,

...

101.9

10.4
245.1
219.3
68.3
541.1
108.3

262 .
78.1
63'/"]j
115.~

312
122.2
255.3

2.0
132.1
240.4

~473.7

ReceiYablet.

~entory (UFO)

193.7

--

....

"""i78'5

Det<Due

01h0f

Cunni. Liab.

ANNUAL RATES

" .... (po'"'1


So,.
''Cash Flow"
Eilrr*lgs
DIVidendS

268.'

W.5

.......

Put

&I'd '11.'11

11.0%
11.5%

19.5%
21.0%

f2.~

15.5"

23.5"

nil.

l' I'll.

11.0%
13.5"

7.5"

BookV_

....Co!-"

Pat

29.5

8.5%

Q1JARTBllY SI!!,;SJ.\ ~

'br.31

JunJO

S.

Dle.31

1197
1998
1919

281.8
363.1
390.0

337.4

315.7
318.0
<00.9

lGOII

319.7
380.8
394.6
4722

<34.0 479.4 4<4.4


SIlO
51D
531
5JS
._PERSIWlEA

2ID1

....Co,,
1197
1191

1919
lGOII
2001

....Co',
1998
1!197
'191
'919

lGOII

395.6
<25.8

1IIr.31 Jun.JO Sep.JO

.43
.62
.70

.68

.83

0Ic.31
.5<
.62
.70
.11

.80
.73
.91
.81
.83 1.0<
.92
.JS 1.15
1.OS
.JS
QIIUlTERL7DIYIlBIlS PoW"
lar.31 Jun.30 50'.30
00<.31
.11
.123
.11
.123
.123
. 123
.14
.1<
.14
.16
.16
.16
.18
.18
.16
.18
.18
.20
.20

...

(.1_
........ ertaon:Ii'NIry
_'
1.... gIi'ls
_
thlnarter.
ExcludeS
~bssesl: '85, (11t!8 '88, ~'~); '89, 19; '91,

12.5"
13.M;

9.0"
17.tn'
Full
Y.. ,

1260.6
1517.5
1611.3
11S11
2117S

....
Fall

2.28

177
3.12
~ID
~1D

."
Yoar

.<7
.53
.60
.68

"r

"'''

30
25
20

. ..

.'

1993
1995
1994
20.04 22<7
26.85
U7
2.2D
1.'
.92
1.41
1.15
.30
. 2
.38
13"
Ul 112
723
6.92
6.04
30:51 OIIl3--n64
15.8
13:9"
10U
.93
.94
B3
23%
21%
2"
611.3
692.7 822.S
11.41
12.1%
20.7
21B
232
35.6
28.'
".1
39.5" 39.611 39.511
5.4%
5.1%
'.6%
144.5 164.6 153.7
59.5
67.5
lV
220.5 247.9 273.3
10.9% 1201
13.5'
12.9% 1f.4" 16.1"
9.7'4 11.4"4
8.0'
33%
29%
38"

,,,,,

1997
1996
332,
041.80
2.79
3.63
1.10
2lll

.<7
1.14
10.04
"""3IlN
lU
.88
1.8%
10175
12.5'
29.8
65.7
39.6"
6.5%
1752
1912
301>
12.1%

18.1"
13.5%

26"

Companies

delivered

iiiII

Idju:sted b

11:1"""

'''.8

-4.4
108.1

30.0
10U

..

-,.",

~"

1"",'1_.,.'"

..

~:::::ml

n,

"'''

good

-"."
'99: $158.0milon,.....

2D.9

......::

Carllsle, bottom-line results rose at a midteens rate (14%) in the latest period.
buoyed by 11% sales growth and a lower
effectlve tax cate. AcqulsJtlons played a
key role in the quarter - accounting for
virtually all of the year-over-yeac top-line
gains - though eamJngs progr~
was
more evenly balanced between existing operatlons and newly acquired busJnesses.
Carlisle's debt is on the rise~but not
yet a cause for concern. Total debt was
above the $500 mUllan mark as of Septemher 30th (to 47% of capital), due to
stepped-up acquisition activity. We note
that the company continues to resist dilut .
ing shareholder equity via the issuance of
new shares. The company's strong cashflow generating capabilities suggest that
the increased debt load will not prove lo be
an undue stress on the balance sheet.
We are maintaining our share-net
estimates for 2000 and ZOOI. The outlook
for Carlisle's Industrial Components seg~
ment is strong. wtth the The & Wheel
division likely gantenng incremental hen-

_d,.
.....".(BI
.............bou\
Fib. 1D1t1.Goes
Blt aboul Feb. HilI. ON. pmt
dI1es a!DJt the 2nd of MarcIl, June, Sept.,
Dee.; 5 dw. ded'd il 'B4, 3 il '85. D Ow. .-.

.... -

".,

s.""

1)'1".

3 yr.
So yr.

1998
1999
2000
2001
YALUEUNEPUBlie.
.US
50.28 53.<B 647S
.31
4.74
~75
U8 elsh Row" 1*III
EIningI ,. III A
2.n 3.12 ~
.53
.eo
.70
.14 DWell DId'a pII' It! Bo
.7'
1.97
115
316
1.69
2Jf
, .. 75 Z2.I8 Book YIIII pIl' III C
11.~ 13.48
15.87
"""3lf16- ~.18
30.13 3413
0fIft0Il ShIOUtitD "D"""
13.6
182
1'3
1-- Avg Ann' PIE RHo
.94
.M
.78
R_PIERdo
~ AVB Ann' Dlv'd 'fWd
1.<%
1.3'
1.7'
1260.6 1517.5 1611..3
2075 -~I
'J3D
13211 13.01 13.4'1 14.11 U.n
38.8
4H
64'
'82
70.7
M.9
125 Not_W
95.'
1"
39.5"
38.<" 3I.JI Jl.n In=--TaRD
39.'"
5.61
5.9%
5.%
UI
NotPloI1 .....
191.4
300.7
223l
1JlIl
:DO W_. Cop'111m1l
2C9.6 273.5 281.7
JII/I
JII/I 1.oo;.T ... 001< ($nil)
3<8.8 <06B .U8.1
S85
1M S''':_IWi
13.8%
13.9%
13.8%
fU% ...n R...... T"';'e:;:.
tI.n RItlIm an SIr.
203"
20.9" 20.01 1m
15.7%
16.4%
15.7"4
f1Sll '101 RItIkIed 10 COllI Eq
21%
22%
22%
2fI AI Dtv'ds ~,..., PraI
21"
100 !bod pmc. eqUip. 8Ic:klag ri $228.0 ml at ~end
of op. ('$261. 1 fl'illion i1 '98). 1999 depr. 13m: 7.2'J,. Abl 9,500

!l:Jlre5S
on the earnings front In the
ptem'ber quarter.
As is typical Cor

"
7.'

'" TOT. RE'TUR111MO

D3-05

!U.fO
lfO
~18
l.O2
J.>II

XIS
" . f>
fU
l.OS
f.11

13.S1
8S.I

".R

UI

J40
JII/I
114S
W7"
II.Sll
115%
1K
'9!l

81f1P$.,
2,500 stkhtb.
Dr. end Of. ci1. 8.0'" cI corn. IIoCk (3100 Prexy).
CIwmrI. a1d CEO: StspheR P. Mum; Pnts.: R. McKi'lnilh. Inc.: DW.
Adm".: 250 S. cmton St., Suite 201, Syr.JCUSe, NY 13202-1258,.
Tel.: 315--474-2500. Imwnst: ....... c:arilII.carn.

efits

(rom

an acquJsltlon, and the TensoUte

wire unit positioned to capitalize on strong

growth in the wireless and data storage


segments. AgreemenB to supply companles such as Cisco, Lucent, and Alcatel
augur well for this unit's prospects. Price
Increases at some of Carlisle's other units
(I.e., foodservlce and rooll~ could provide
some margin upside, ~
rwacd.
Carlisle shares have
Ipped a notch,
to 3 (Average), for year-ahead relative
price perfonnance. The stock has been
trading lower in the last few months
amidst the backdrop of signs of a slowing
economy. Carlisle, as a dJve:rsifted
industrial manufacturln'ti finn, is not immune to
such a slowdown.
owever, its leadership
position (either 111or *2) in most rnarltets
in which it competes. helps to cushion the
company on the downside. And sinl:e it pMmarily operates in niche speclalrr.; markets. competition Is not as keen as or commodity segments. By all indications. Carlisle should continue to deliver strong
(mid-teens) bottom-line results in the comIng years. As such, this Issue holds aboveaverage 3- to 5-year total-return potential.
Brian L. Bugbee
December B. 2000

s\;CI;""- ... ";-~~

. 4Istun. (D) In rriklns,


nx:k splS.

87t!);. Nb" less: 1 'B9, ,. Next 1B'JIi1gS


c zmo. Y-. tite ~~
1'I5erVIld. flc1UIl ~
is IltIlIined fnn ~
~
III br I1IlIIUe n
is provilIelII '*holt ~
TH[IUIUS!-OISHOJRE
ORAN1'[RRORSORClNISSlONSHEIlE
... l1Ii5~~la'dJb~-..na'1-C~denIIl.se.
d ~ ~ be ~
__
g' PnlniIef
ill." prdlllL IIIIlDtn:
IalnI. 0" lISlIIlb ~
II" ~
IJlJ pi*d 0" ItlDnrit p1IbliIa.!oenIiee

ri!fg

80
50
40

"

BUSINESS: ClIrIisIll Corl1laIll8S Inc.. is a diYers(~ manufl~


end disrtI. rnn. Constr. Ma1eriais (25'" aI '99 S8Ies, 33%
proM) ilcl non-residenliJi roorng 1YSl, COIdingllnd wd8rpnxlf"ng.
Incl. CGmpm8R!5 (.J3%; 38"J ind. briltilg prod., tie & ....
aM
cabIB IsIeII'DiRs. Ai*l Comp:lll8nt112O"';
12'%) i'1cl III'lQi'IIMdd
pIiIstI:: llId rubbIr pmd. AI 00. (22%: 17") i1cL spee. oilers

Carlisle

125

1DO
80

I'hl'

.. ...

2.

- -- - -- -- - --

- -, ' - -

I---

.,

3.'
225.3

T.'VIt Pric. Range


2003 2004 2005

30.'

"

4.0

....

Co:'~

30.'

32.8

2.0%

51.0

52'

1,,,,11.,1""

__1,1

111'1,,1,'1--"

,I"

..

Cunni Assets

11.',

p~nt
5harw5

67
52
1....

80
71

'"

1989
1985
1986
1987
1988
1990
1991
1992
17.15 20.'2
13.13
11.61
16.1
13.96
16.64
1721
"21
1.33
1.36
1.39
1.36
1~
1.10
123
1.<1
122
.76
.76
.6S
.M
.58
.n
.eo
.79
.30
31
.20
19
.31
.32
J3
21
18
~.~1
.67
.50
.61
.66
02
6.U
6.62
623
6.68
'.96 5.36 6.<3 6.69 5.93
Jn1.
-32.28
""""3llJIO"""36]il" 33:l9"" ""ll:&:r
""1iI:'1 ""30:51 3[38
lU
14,9"
10.9
14.6
lOB
14.4
13.3
15'
8'
1.11
.81
.79
.89
1.116
1.00
.92
.81
.!'O
3.1%
33%
3.6%
3B%
3.7%
3.1~
3.3%
2."
'.2'/0
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of iI'JOIVO
621.1 5llJ.8 528.1
9.7lI 10.51 11.41
TOIaJ Deb!: $509.7 mi. Due In 5 YI'I $261.0 mill.
23.D
1U
18.8
LT Debt $282.2 mi.
LTlntltrnl $19.0 mill
182
22.7
2<2
(34hICap~
(Tetal merest.-ned: 8.3Jr.)
38.01 39.21' 39.01
Pen.lon Uabilty None
3.7lI
.4.6'.4
3.6"
120.8 115.4 162.1
PhI Stock Nollt
<B.6
69.1
207' 190.1 20<2
Cammon StIxl30.255,302 .115.
{""dCo,~
8.511 9.8%
as cf 11/1M
9.6"
II.K
11.0'
IIARKET CAP: $1.3 b1licm (Mid C.p)
'3"
'B"
CURRENT POsmoN
~
1905
53%
'2%
1984

.,.

JF_AMJJAS

Institutional Decision.
..,
~,

..

53.1

DIV'D
TlD

2for'

RdIm

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
o 2 10 0 0 0 0 0
011
0 0 0 2 0 0

47.8
27.0

19.D

17.3

110 (~16O% 2'"


75
+10%
17%

30.'

~':u~r~

21JOU5 PROJECTIONS

"'"....

I"
8.0

H;.h:
low:

1
M.~.t IU2.0 )!F
Pf RATKl0 77
42 PfRATKl 110(1"'1:

I~ECOO
PRIce

d ~

UJd.

opt
II"

pvUt.

51ock'. riee S1abII1)'

70
90
95

Price Growth PerslllltrlQ


En", Predktibllll)l
I

I'.

: II:

II.

:15.0\IRElATNE 0 87
1e.,,:1ullpRAm

YlD
0.7%
12 PERAm 126(Tnoiin
CASEY'3S GEN'L STRS NDQ.cASY I~wr
,.,
DIV1l

RI5elI rJlWl

_EUlESS
SA-Fro

TECHNICAL

3 Ne-1nlo9J
3 RM 111111)

"""...---1-- ..

IETA .10 om-Martefl

F'w
....riio.....
200~
PROJt\'I!'JN3'.

!iMdt'd-. ~

62

'.3

High:
3.6
2.8
Low:
1.9
1.3
LEGENDS
III I CCKJ rbrOp ~
.... " ~
Pm Sh!lglh
Z.fDr-l ~
YoM
Zob'-' ~
ZI!IB

1.3

3.2

3.7

7.7
5.2

12.7
7.2

12.5
7.0

..,

12.'

18.3
12.3

16.B

13.3

'.7

7.'

rete'ssGI

AM' Tcrtal

Priu
Ga1I'I
Rn..m
30 (~150'/,I 26%

....

Lailr
18
Insider Decisions

(+SO",

13%

DJ"

.....

JJA

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 a 0
000000000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

__
~
.S~

4QtIII

58

fClnlf

45

'" '.~J 1

tQlIIf

Perce'"
48 .harP
tra.-cl

1"1r I"r

111

Institutional Deci.lons
.",

~:II'

111.0
11.0
.

III

..

.111111(

,.

..

..

..

.61

1.01

36.30

45.704
15.8
1.28

121
41.15
20.0
D6

45.74
16.4
1.10

10.7

I.DO

..

..

..

1.36

..

1988 19B9 1990


9.17 10.95 13.19 13.69
.48
51
.35
.41
16
.15
.1B
.20
..
.. .01 .03
1.55
45.74

1.74
45.14

21..

13.4

1.19

l.Dl

1.93
44.00

'.1
.68
.7%

1993
14.10
.68

1994
16.34
.8T

.30
37
j)j
.03
2.16 2.43 3.06

.44

44.31

15.19
.66

44.35

13.1 13.5

51.84
14.6

J4
.82
.68
.6%
-"
.7%
5/10.3 606.6 613.1 7312
201% 2O.i% 20-"
m%
4.6'
'3%
,,% '4%
518
597
639
687
16.5
'.0 11.5 133
31.25%37.78' 38.00' 38.89'
1.611.95 2.DI
d13.6 119.0 d34.1
IM.l
61.04
61.4
99.0
63.8
84.8
95.9
1011.0 158.4
7.61
8.7'
7.8" .-'"
10.6% 12.0' 12.31 10.4'

.......

'" T01.RET\IRIII 1D1DD


1)'1'.
3)'1'.
5)'1'.

'~992

..

....... ..
"'-.'

...

1995

11i'997

199B

1821 21.13 22.56 13.73


.98
1.03
1.21 1.41
.51
.52
.63
.76

.01

.05

3.40

3.93

51.93
15.1
.99
.6%

5Z.44
20.6

1.38

....
.4%

2001

31.75

1.50

.76
.06
.05
.06
.06
5.95
-4.-42 5.01
5.73
52.48 52.60 52.73 51.92
18.3 20.3 18.8 16.1
.92
1.15
1.17
.98
.5%
.5%
5%
.4%

D.ZD

u..

"" ..,.
""'"
-1.7
14.B
58
12.1

30.0
104.8

cVALIJEUIlEPIJB INC. D3-4!i

SaIn per III ...

1.7$
1.15 -cuh R.. per ....
.J5
1.115 Ening. per lit
.JI1
.W Dh'd. Dld'd,..1It C
1.11 118 BOClIlYllutpll'M
~.
5UO COIWDOn h. ClvIIf'g

41.0/1

2.91
1.5/1
.1/1
'1.15

91.'"
16.D
1.115
.5lI

11t 511. (1nIII) ...


1109.0 1186.9 1251.1 1648.2 lJOil
21.5% 21.6' 20.1% 21.6% 23.1% 19.7% 21./111 mil Groll
6.04,"
UlI l5ll 0pn600 IboriIn
7.1% 1.1% 6.04"
8.0%
7.'\'
1119 121/1 1SDQ NlnblrofSlDrw II;
801
T41
818 946
1022
u.5
22Jl
26.8
21.0
33.5
39.4
40.2
75./1
W Not"" .. 11noI)
J7.5l1
38.'" 37.75' 7.49'1. 37.501 37.50%371O'I 37.'" 37.51 Inca. 111.RIll
uu ... Uncaplla!bd.Annu8llbnmls
$.411'il
,,%
31%
2.41 l81
2.'"
PeltSion Uabllity No PenSDfI Plan
d55..
d19.1 d37.5 d13.6 d65.6
d33.8 d12.9
:JJJ.I
79.7 79.1 1225 112.9 1..
60.0
191
812
PM stock None
355
3D1.. 308.8
231.9
263.4
179.1 2062
5J5
Common Stocll-49,466,762
.115.
II"",
9.71 10.61 10.31 1D.41
.. otlt1RO
to.!" 10.3"
13.01 11.6' 12.71 13.3' 12.8% 14../IlI
12.5l1
12.1'
IlARKET CAP: HOo million (Small Cap)
9.4112./IlI
1z.ft RmIMd tD COllI Eq
11.61 11.8' 10.5" 11.6" 12.3" 11.8"
10.7"
11.1'"
CURRENT POSmoN
11S1
1M
7131.
7" AI DiY'dl tD NIII. Prof
8%
9%
10%
8%
711
11" 1[)%
10%
"
5.9
15.9
17.0 I-::.;-;U'::""E""~' """'~-7.:;:Gcc."'""="'......
=.:.""""::,t:-:"-'..: """':,....,.....=::---"56:-c.,,=o/J,-,.---:.."..:J,.L. . .l""=iI;':":'''!'=-'''=_=:'':_:::'':':'I::'C:.'''51~''-'.;.::''~
I~
(UFO)
-4tl
-4;} i'l n" millWllitSlaTl lUtes. prin;riy in Iowa, UB5ouri, IIInd llrlois. '99. Has 5,000 full fme .-nplys. Has IIbout 2,600 !ll.khldrs. 0I'Tian
Other
14.3
13.1
33.4 SblIsseI gllSDlill8and. bmBd selection 01food (ldJding frvshly & Dinld:tn own 12.2%
of slk.; ~.
1IVgS. pan, 73; T.Rowe
QlI'renlAsssts
102 -----n:T
104.4 pntp;nd pizza, donuts, hamlugers, eE.), brnnQes, .1Id non- Pril2 As1o:., 8.3% (8100 Prm:y). OU.IT'llIn: D.F. l.8niMlrli CEO:
~~b1e
44.2
61.0
58.5 food IIrns.. As of 4'3Q'OO, Casy'. had 1,199Ct1lT1J*')'
o"ned and RAt taonb. Inc.: Iowa. Itoti".: One CorMJniIJnc:e 8M1., An_y,
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as of 7131M
Total Debt $201.5 mi. DUlin 5 Yla $135.5rnil.
LT o.btS191.4 mil.
LTIn1Rrat $6.0 mil..
Ind. $4.8 nil. caplaliZBd Ieaa5.
(LT irrbsest earned: 9.91.; IDtaIIfderest
cowlAge: 9.1x)
(37% ofCap1l

2:~=

-4r.~

Other

~g ~:~ ~:~121

6411.'

,."

"

frilndli!l8d

:,.L:::--'."...=....

kx:atiDn1.

'''"

5=::ds

1.

'~:g~

'10"
~,=,.

"

In fiscal 1999, gaol" ICCOUIrl8d b"

83.8"""'1'4OJ103.6 Casey's is seeking


to build on its
ANNUALRATES Put
Pol Est'd'l7.'11 recent
growth pattern. The company
oI"'(pw~)
IIYII.
51... 1It'IJ.'15
posted record sales and share earnlngs talSaleS
11.0,," 11.5% 10.5"
lies in the first quarter
of fiscal 2000
''Cd'" FIow"
13.5"" 13.5.. 10.5"
(ended July 31st), of $529 mlllion and
14.5~
~~~~
$0.32, respectively. Healthy margins
artsBo:*. V.ue
13,5% 13.5% 13.5"
ing from higher gasoUne selUng prices, in
~
~
creased
volume of gallons sold, and a
B:'
JUI~1~~'~r.30
1=: richer mix of nongasollne products are
9 1
driving results upward. In particular. r1s.
1997 320.7 311." 276.9 271. 186.9 ing gasoline costs have been passed
on to
1. 3324 3224 291.6 304.7 1251.1
1.
387.2 412.8 402.0 446.2 1648.2 customers at the pump via higher selling
2000 528.9.suo
UD
451.1 19111
prices, resulting in an average gasoline
2001 55D
54D
510

Z100
margin of 13.1 t. pee gallon, up from 9.9C:
~K81
EARNItGS PERSHARE".
FYI last year. Due largely to the Improved
Il::- Jul.310cU1 Jan.31 Apr.. ~=: profit margin. we look for a 25% bottom
1197
1
O!I
53 line gain In fiscal 2000. However, gasoline
.20
.20
. 4.
.
prices have begun to ease somewhat late1911
14
.24
.17
.11
.76 I
d
1.
.28
.24
.10
.14
.16 y, an we expect this trend to translate to
2000 .32
.19
.17
.11
.95 more moderate gasoline prices in fiscal
2001
.15 .33 .19
.1'
1.05 200] and beyond. As such, share-earnings
caJ.
QUARTBU.YDIVI)ENOSPAIlC
Full
growth:ls apt to slow to a 10% to 15% clip.
endu MIf,31
Jun. SeD.30 Dedi
Yur The number of~ons
or gasoline sold
1916
.013 .013 .013
.013 .05 is climbing,
espite
weakened
de1197
.013
.013 .015 .015
.06 mand., thanks
to Casey's
aggressive
.015 .015
.015 .015
.06 site
expansion
strategy.
Last
year
1111 .015 .015 .015 .015 .06 alone. the company Invested roughly S]OO
2000 .015 .015 .02.02
mllIlon to open 84 new company-owned
Current
uab_

-1111"

lowaSOOZ1. Tel.: 515-a65-G100. I.....

"

WWW.CilS8yLcmL

stores; in addition, it bought 11franchised


stores. So far this year, management
is
well on its way to achieVing its goal of addtng 180 corporate stores by the end of flsca1 2001. It has built 12 new stores and
purchased
13 franchises. And, assuming
that gasoline selling prices continue to decUne to more traditional levels. demand is
likely to ramp up at each site. thereby
boosting overall gasoline volume.
sates of ornrery and general
mer~ -chandise
items are on the rise, too. A
wide
variety
of value-added.
hlghermargined non-gasollne items have been tntroduced. Over time, in-store sales should
be better able to stabU1ze sales and mar)i?;lnsin the face of volatIle gasoline prices .
A reducUon in gasoline prices, as well as a
eI
greater s ectJon, should also help to balster in--store traffic.
In our view, neutraUy ranked. Casey's
stock offers worthwhile
annual
total
returns in the pull to 2003-2005. More
over. it appean
the company is armed
with the balance sheet flexibility to continue to Its aggressive site expansion practice:
over that span
Scott T: Falzone
November 10. 2000

sb::k\

sa.n...

(A) FISCal ~
end:s Aprl30ttl or the foIoWing j;h8l8after.
Next eIWMIgs repcri due IIt8 No15. Nov. 15. (D) In dions, ad;Js1ed for
~ompany'a
Flnandlll
calend. }'U'. Sales figtl'eS t1Xdude ItlflIY 11- vembet. eC) Next dl'IiIend meeting early Deapllts. (E)Inc:lUd85 only tunpany-owmed
b.ck's Pric. Stablll1y
CIInll.nd the nwenues trm fraIldI_ sUns. CI!JI'tlIIr. ~
ex date January2S. Appta'inllB d::IBs.
P1Ice G1DWIh,.rsatMcI
(B) P....,.
1IllIIT1lIl!JSthro1JgI11991; d~
dNidend payment daa:: Feb. 15, Nay 15. Aug.
eaml.
PNdlctabllitJ
o 2UIl......
1iIe Pr.IbidliIq, IIIC. AI riQIU 1"IlMftIId. tMUlllllll!'Jill
il.1lttIftd 1nlI'II.-a bIlirIId lDbe r-...-.I iI; FrvrilIed .....
--*s
d..,. U1d.
THEPUBlJSHEIIIS IJT R[SPONSlBl.EloANf't E.RRQR5OR OMISS1QNSHEREIII.nBp.tKaatissrdJ
~~,
Dao!I, lIIIR~
iIIUrnIIUSl!.Na~
I
I
I',
d l.-y.
~
..... II ~
il." jMelL ~
1I.... 1arm. II U5Id
b,.....
II ~."
II'i'*d II ~
pIlbbIiIn, stnice Q: P"I'*JtL

: II:

B
60
75
90
II

CENTEX4~,_
CNST. PROD. NYSE.cxp T~ 24
T

lIIE1J11(SS

3 ""M"

wm
TECHNiCAl

LEGENDS
1.D I CI'5h ra.- p 51!
. Rtlllive PrU ShIigI1

4 ""''''''''
.1D (J1IO. MMlIl}

lIlT..

ee~d':u~

trrr"'"

High:
low:

,..

40('~: 4l)WUM 029

12.8

lledil.:NIf

1S.G
10.5

32.6
16.3

18.5

12'

DMl

YlD

PI: RAOO

,..,

.1\1.8
33.0

45.'
29.1

1984

1985

--

--

..

..
..

---

--

--

..

--

--

--

---

--

1988

1989

--

..

..

---

.,

..

--

--

..--

--

..

--

--..

--

----

--

-..

--

--

...

_ .....

P.nsJon L"'blity None

Common

Stock

uatll.-a

,...

IlARKET CAP: $4SO million


CURRENT POStT1ON

'lOlL)

eo", ......
ReOllivables
1_(FIFO)
oth"
CuIT1ln1 Assets
DebtOue

54.S

532

30.5

30 .

125.9
".3

lB9~
223

ANNUAL RATES

"'-(po-"')

.S:
1997
1998
1999
2001

CaI-

.nd.r

1191

1997

1991
1999

223

.1

Pat

.1

Est"d'l7-'6

10"'''
9.5"
11.0"
11.5"

6.111<
22.011

13.5%

QUAR~~SAW~IlII)'
Jun.3D St
DlC..31 IlIIr.31
18.0
70.5 65.'
19.6
19.6
91.8
64.9
.7.2
117~
95.3
...
7
100.3
125
115
1aT
1111 105
13J

....

'118.'

EARtllCGS FU SHARE A.
.68
.80

se~.30 Dec.31
.80

.60
.99

IIIr.31

.48

~7
1~4
1.17
1.61 1.26
1.42
2.00
1.71 1.J1
QUARlBU.Y DlYl)ENDS PAIlc
110,.31 Ju. 3Q Sop.3O Ooc.3r
1.15
1.25

.05
.05
.05
.05
.05

1.05

1.7'

.05
.05
.05
.05
.05

'52

.05
.05
.05
.05
.05

.05
.115
.05
.05
.05

2Il

15

....

.'

..

..

--

--

------

--

--

---

..

..
..
..
..
..
..

--

..
..
..

--

..

--

---

--

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
--

..

--

---

..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..

..

---

---

.".

~.

1".
3".

..

18.8%

25.6"
14.6
21.8

17Q.!

24.S
183.4

6.0\
6.0\

11.9%

..

&
297.3
336.1
'18.1

"'

4IS

&
~56
3.71
5.63
180
(56

....,
full

.2D
.2D
.2D
.2D

15.4

91.5

97.11

"2

...,.,:io'=.. .......

--

291.3
239.4
32.1\ 34.4%
13~
15J1
41.8
56.5
33J1
36.0\
35.1" 35.'\
19.0%
152\
17.5'
45J1
28~
".7
.5
.6
.5
216.5
2391 274.8
17.4% 20.5\
15.8'
15.7% l1J1\
20.6\
15.7%
15.6' 19.01
.. 11\
8\

336.1
418.1
.00.0\ 441\ ".9ll
18.6
11.0
162
n.3
106~
118
351\ 36.4% JUlI
23.0\ 25.8\ 25.1ll
66.1 116.2
15$
.4
.3
N.
219J1 340.5
.u5
27.6%
31.8%
7Ull
21.6\ 31A\ 2l5'Il
26.1%
28-lll
30.7"
5\
4\
4%

""

222.6

35J1\
.11~%
31.1

10.8\
11..\

5.6%

-34.4

,...

.~

..

194.

,>5

7.'

"""
-18.11

1994
199.
1996 . 1997 1998 1999 2000
cYALUEUNEPIlB ~C. 03-f5
2001
8.46
JUS
'.59 10.89 13~1 17.02 22.51 24.1' 25.15 ~ ..,..IhA
,.59
P''''''
2.06
3.36
U3
6.83
7.26
7.11l CuII _
2.53
.."
.95
5.63 l80
1.48
1.69
256
UlI IrniIp JIll' III A It
3.7'
7.7G
.20
.2ll
.24
.24 Dlv'c1, DKl'd per Ih C
"
.2ll
.2ll
.211
1.1
.61
21
.61
1.11
1.51
1.11l Cop, &p.>dIo. ""oil
220
10.89
1."
'.42
'2.n 1. 18 18.33 ZL2II 2U, look YIIuI per Ih
".ID
l
I
ll80
;,;
,OT lID
fro
.'V ..... /'I'E ....
'.3
U
8.'
R_PJERdo
.18
.62
.53
.62
.53
.36
.55
;;;;;
.5\
.6\
Avg Ann'l DtY'dYield
.7%
~
1.3'

166.8
14>
,0.2
382\
6.1\
292

... "........ -

10

'" TOT. Rt'TURN _


".,,,

..

XI.1"
13.8

~.:..
_-1""1)

4CS

".511
145

_{IIIii;

1211 Not
36.5ll 1nc:oIn. Ta RdI
25.1% Not_ .....

...

Nil
516
2JJllI
23.5ll
22.5ll

-.

""',

(10011)

Lon;T... Oobl (Im.1

Sh,:EUtI< i~i'

Rnam on 10lil CIIl'I

R_lII

SIr. e"';ltv

RIbiIntd to COlI Eq
.S All Dtldo .. NotProf

556
4Uil

2U
145
36.5ll
21.4%
US
Nil
IJ5

''''''

".all
'i.llI
'11

BUSINESS: Centex Construdixl


Produels, Inc.. produces laTlefIl,
sand, and 8llpllnded days and slUlles. 1htl company Iw aggregRl
aggreg8tes. ... dy mile conama. and O}'PSlITI wa~.
It 0fll!'Iidld
depoSits ., NoItMm CA and AI.Ism, TX. BS MIl 8S gypswn wan
kv 1I1l81J)'inganD manL'fac:t.lmg p.!antll, IIfld Ill!bKri. 01 , 1 1Ilrmi-' bc&1l Pk* ill NY and CD. iii. sbotll: " 100 amp'., 305 ~l1lkh.
nals for lie produdixl of porIand and 1IIiID'MY aIfI'I8III: in lX, tL., Centex Ccrp. ~
&UlJli or axil. (FY'99 1o-K). CIm1n. & CEO:
NV, Ra::ty Mounlan _,
and Northllrn CA. Its IlIIragfts
bysiD.G. Diigl1Bl1. Inc.: DE. Addr..: 3710 R8riIs Sl, s.. 1600, LB 78,
lIIIS lDIJIistI m1hll riling, produdi:ln, and IiIIt d aushed stone, Oallls, TX 15219. r .... : 214-559-6514.
InWnat: www.cenl:u..tom.

60.8

-- 33.""
_..-

Jun.30

'"

,II'

SI2 We are looking for earnings growth to

73.0

Sf ...
16.0%
25.5"

..

..

BookValuG

-.

22U

50.6

Put
lDy ....

"Cash Flow"
Esmngs
DMderid,

..

592

Sol..

2101

129.9

49.7
43~
33.0

CulT1lntUab.

"""'"

1101

.1

Other

1917
1911
1999

..~

Ismail C.pJ

..

AcdsP_

11_"'Cap'~

---..

..

..
shs.

--

1993

..

..

18,325,132

--

1992

--

--

--

1991

--

--

LT InDrm $.1 ml.


{less thin 1% ofCapll
Annual n!I'ltals S2.9 mil

Leu .. Uncapitl.liud:

----

..

--

--

1990

..

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE.
of &I3DIOO
Due In 5 Vrs $ ..4 mil
Total Debt $.4 mil
LT Debt S.3 mil.

eo
eo
so
30
25

--

-----

--

--

1987

---..
-..

---

- -- - --

.'

--

1~'"

hare_

34

5223

---

.-

Percam '.0

28

1986

125
100

'"I"

~I

.... ....
,. ".- ....
..,.
39

200S

-'~"'lrW'llh

....

I~

2003 2004

-.

Amll'CIIaI
GIift
RI'Un
75I l:215~~ "",
50 +110% 21"

PrtCI

27
55
5501

Target Price Range

21.8

200~5 PROJtcfiQNS

...."'.

0.8%

_.

Insider Oeclsklns
IIDJfll".JJ
000
000
0 0 0
00'
0 0 0 0 0 0
~
000000000
InsUtuUonal DM:lsions

PI:
RAOO

slow down at Centex Construction in


fiscal ZOOO (ends March 31. Zool). That
said. condItlons in ,he cement and con
stlUCUonmaterials markets are currently
very soUd, and the company will likely
post another record bottom-line tally. On
the cement side. despite modest sellingprice decreases dds year, Centex has
relied less on imported cement to fill its orders, and margins have consequently wid
ened. With heavy demand from both commerdal and govenunent construction, the
cement division will likely operate at full
capacity
this year. Offsetting that good
performance.
though.
the
gypsum
wallbaard segment has experienced more
serious price drops of late, hurting margins Within the ~p.
Finally, share profits will get a boost from the company s active repurchase program. which will likely
lower its share count by 3% this
In
all, Centex Is on trar::k to post soU volume
gains, thanks to strong demand, but
tighter margins wI1I keep earnings growth
In the mld-slngle-<llglt range this )"'ar.
By improving efficiency. the company
should maintain
mtXIest earnings

(A) FtDI )'8Z ends Marth 3111 of 1tIe fttIw. ~ Next dividend meel:ing is Dec. 1st. GOIIIex
1111year.
. 3OIh. Payabll dlltlls i1bDu1 the SIh of Jan.,
(8) DikMcl e~
I&OOgs npM Is Apr., July,'l'ld Oct..
...... the ... '"
.

lear.

(D) In milbns.

o 2DCO......... liIle
.
IN:. AI'
5 mmed. r.dIIII ~
is llb'"
fru!, ~
bIfieIeIIlD be ~..,
TIlEPU8USl-ERIS~~RNfrERRORSOROMISSIOfISHER[lN.lhi5~i:55tdyIDr~s"._~LirurnIIlM~pIIt
d I .my be RfIlIIknd, !Irnd ar ...-d
in .., fl*a!II, ~
ar UIIer 11m\, ar .-l kI ,.ning ar .....,
1l'lJ'

is

growth in fiscal 2001. Centex currently


has upgrades in process at two of its
wallboard plants. Based on addItional supply and more streamllned productlon, we
look for better top-line contributions along
with wider operating ~
next year.
Centex is making an e ort to expand
its presence in the gypsum-waUboard
industry;. The company entered into a
back-Up agreement with RepUblic Industries to purchase the latter If the pendIng deal between RepubUc and Premier
Construction Products falls through . AIthough this buyout is quite uncertain, it Ulustrates Centex's commitment to lever-aging its debt-free balance sheet for sU3teglC
purposes. The addition of Republic would
increase sales by about $200 million, almost 50% of Centex's f1SC8l1999 total. We
expect management to pursue other acquJsition opportunfties in thfs fragmented industry.
These shares. though untimely. offer
wide long-tenn
appreciation
potendaJ. We believe Centex's
earnings
prospects out to 2003-2005 wlI lead to a
higher earnlngs multiple .
AdamM U3re
October J 3. 2000
fln..,dl.1 St~ngth
B*

Slrotlf

Comp:.r.:rtc ..

Ii&iIIImiI
StDct"
Stability
Prtcl Growttl Pw-.iatHcI

MkllIItIIouI

lIJd.

ar I!IIdKnn: pjIbDI. scnice ar pOUL

I',

65
85

II:

II-

CHURCH & DWIGHT NYSE.cHD


I
HI."' I

3_ ..1'1""
3 ... ,moo
5 """"....

lJIIlMSS

SAFElY
TECllNICAl

16.3
8.1

n.-

17.9
12.1

...

..

(135~l
+45%

40

25

.........

..

"'

.. .,

~id':u ~

......

..

55
72

'0'"

..

'I.,)

1985
5.75

..

R8C8iYables
Invenlory (UFO)
Otho'

Cumrm AsseQ
Accts Pl!Yable
De .. """
Otho'
CummtUllb.

182
65.0
60.3
23.3

31."
67.2

72.7
14.8

69.1
15.5

166.8 ""TIn

"'1J4."i
---ld

Paat

Esf'd'l7'811

106.1
26.3

1242

140.6

d-..g.(pdj

1nlS.

nIL

DMtend5
800kValue

7.511
1.0110

,.

....,
1896
t197
1998
1999
2DIlO

6.0110
7.5%
.5%
'.511
S.ll%

7.5%

7.5%

1m
1198

8.0"-

QllAIllEJlLr 6AI.ES ~
1b,31 Jon. ..
101.9
1016.'
152.0 113.6 116.8
'74.7
186.' 186.
199.9
'9'.6

'68"

1D':S-'15

Iill

r1.~
13.5%

15....
2.~
11.5"
Full

0:- Dec."

Yur

157.1
.820
183.0

570.9
684.4

ZZU

WI

'29."

"5

123.3
33.0

.., ~

86.1
,.2

"Cash Flow"
Eami"lgs

ea"

so

2lS
2lS
:us
EARNlIlGS PER SlIARE'

IIIlr.31 Jun.30 Sla.50 DlcJ1


.13
.19
. 6
.15
.22
.20
.20
.29
.28
.28
.2'
.29
.31
31
J2
31
.3S
J:l
.J8
llUAIlTERLV IlNIlEIIDS P1D'
IIlr.31 Jun.30 Sep.3I Dec:.31
.055
.055
.055
.oss
.055
.055
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.OT
.07
.01
.01
.01

{AI-"~Iri=r""'''.-

T30.0
S2S
Full

Yur
.62

.n

1.03

,.a
,,,.
Full

Yu'

..
22

13
.26

~_d

.,

2S~

13.71

26~

12

10

I'"

..
,

-'"

..
.....

...

1993
1995
199'
11.84 11.51 12A4
.51
1.05
.60
.18
.28
2S
21
22
22
.12
.22
3...
3."
40.16
44.3
17.9
38.1
1.00
2.91
2...
1~~
1.9%
1.2~
491.1 485B
fiII.l
9.1%
5.211.
4.'%
13.1
10.6
11.7
102
31.4
'OB
362~ 31.1%
38."
B2~
21%
84.1
22.1
2'~
I.S
1~
I.'
169.4 153.9 153.7
66~ 6.5'
11.8'
18.5%
t91l
6.6~

."'

."

13.51

21%

,,~

1.31

1.0 ..

8S~

1996
199T~OOO
11.n
1357
14.79
.90
.99
'23
.62
.T7
.65
22
13
2'
.28
.10
.18
Hi
S.ll4
425
38.'"

38.81

38.62

19.1.
120
2.1%

223
129
1.1~
614.9

19.7
1.02

S21B
1.1'10
13.6
212

a~

142
2H
36.0" 36.7'
'.011
'.3~
36.1
232
1.5
6.8
165.3 '19.3
12.4% 13.3%
.28% '3.1~
7.6%
4ll~

1.6%

8.7\

31%

38."

22.0
'25
HI!

/30.0
684A
B.51l 11.2~
16.5
'9,3
30.9
'2'
36.911 36.9%
5.S%
H~
362
41.6
58.1
29.6
226.1
'94.8
1.1%
15.9"
11.1%

301l

151%
18.6%
14.1%

....
.....
'28.9

.......
...

28.'

25.'

.~
... ...

'1.IIl
1.75

1.211

,
4

" T01. RETURII MID

2001

18.79
U8
1.03
.28
.85
5.84

,,,.
'"

15.

75.1
91.6
VALlIE UIlE 1\IIl.1lC.

"'pwlll
'0/1 "tal> F1oll" pwlll

,,,. Ea1*I"I*'"

It

Dh'c11 DIcI'd PII' Ih

AS Copl Spning pw III


1.15
7.15 lied. YIIut PM' III C
JUO
34.811 I;QIInIOII 5111 OIItifl u
A'V Ann'l PIE ....
R~PIERdo
~ "vg Ann' DiY'dY.d
M
au "'I\I1II)
llU% lUll
2U
22.' O.,ncl_ '!nil)
54. W Not_linin
57.8% 57.B1l IncOIIII Tu ItIIt
Ull 5.I1l NotProItM.
48
Cop' fInoll)
IS'
a. Lon;T."llIilI (\nolII)
as 5IlI SI...
'Ull tl," RnamanT*c.p,
18.5% 1B.B1l R....... Shr.E_
14.5% "..5% .-kleonEq
2B1l AI DlY'ds to NIl Prof
.J!

--

......::

w_,

....

G300S
Jlll

.29

...

1.85

AD

,.15

,LQ
'.2G
1.111

1225
11.011
38.8
75'
57.B1l
L'll
121
1...
575
11.8%
lUll

'Ull

1511
2'~
animal Med, phannaceuti::BI IiIpplicBlions, & glass pnxIuction. RID,
2.5%0 01 '99 salts. "99 deo~. rD: 5.~ .... JIbed J,325 5!JpbJIMS, 10,000 shinholders.
Oft'"r,::en & di'8dln CM'tI 4.4%0 rJ an-

BUSINESS: Churt:h & ~h1


Co., Inc. ill the world', brgest prorI sodUn bilabMs. ConsLInw ~
~clJde Arm &
HBrMWII' biking IDdll (sodUn bbrbooate).
powder '" lilui:l Iaundry dlMrgent. carpel Illd I'lXWIl d8odoril:w, ~,
deocb'ilnl,
and m-y. ft&ls and &iIo m.t wool prods.. Spdty. prods. I1d.
sodU'n bicatl. & poClIssit.m C2I'bonatIl for ndustrill ciea~,

man (3100 proxy). Clainllfl:


D.C. MinbI; CEO & PMident RA
Davies. Inc.: DE. Addr8ss: 469 N. Har1'i!on st, Pri1aIIDn, trU
0&543. TeI9phone: 609-683-5900. Il'lIIImIt www_~.a:m.

Church & Dwight is on track to post a


solid
share-net
advance
in 2000.
Despite heavy spending to s~n
product
launches, which will likely eFeat any ef
forts to widen margins this year. the com~
pany is reaping the rewards of expanding
Its Ann & Hammer (A&/-/) Unes. Three
product-line extensions were introduced
dUring the second ~arter.
With the new
~ucts
and with
ll-~
contributions
rom businesses acquired in 1999. Church
should post a 15% ~-Une increase this
year. lncremental p
t gains from the
added sales base will Ukely lead to a 16%
bottom-line improvement.
The company has more new products
in the pipeUne. In oral care, the company is launching A&H Sensation; a tooth
paste with a cooling flavor that is aimed at
generating interest among younger age
groups. This is In conjunction with the
launch of a children's version of A&H Dental Care Gum. Both of these products will
receive considerable markedng support in
the months ahead. The rompany Js also
reintrodUcing a deodorantlantl-persplrant
this fall with fonnula and packaging upgrades_ Thes.e products. and those launchR

ed earUer this year. should provide soUd


top-line support in 2001. It Is vital that
Church continue to reinvent itself and leverage the highly ~ed
A&Hbrand to
keep its revenues
profits growing over
the long haul. We believe that its commitrnent to R&D. which runs at approximate
Iy 2.5% of yearly sales. will keep that prod
uct plpeUne fresh. leadln~ to deamt topline growth OYerthe 3- to -year pull.
Strategic
partnerships
may _U
augment Church's internal growth tacdes. The company entered into an alliance
with USA
Detergents in an effort to
streamline production. Church has a majorlty interest in the partnership. and wlU
reap 6096 of the total profits. It also has an
option to buyout USA after five years. In
accordance with the plan, the company is
closing an underperfonning
detergent
plant In Sfu;8Cuse. SJrnlJar moves will be
necessary or Church to generate doubledlglt earnings growth l~
ahead.
These shares offer
. e longten appreciation potential.
thanks to
the company's soUd share--net prospects
over-that s~
Adam M
an'
October 13. 2000

oucer

__

".""",Oct25th.

'112.''''''.

Comp..... , .. __

egs. rpI. due lirIe


ExcbSes fItn1lC, gam:
ex-diYldend IOOu1Nov. 10.1. Div"d prml (D) In millDllS, IdjuSted for R:cIt sPIll
~
'89,1.07; '90, S.Q2; '93. S.08; '99. $.08; bsses: dItes: .... 1, May 31, Aug. 30, Nov. 29.
p~
.... S29; "'.S.13; .... S.I~ ~ $02;
ICj''''''''
... _
.. 119,S83.1m.....
~
o ltIlO. VIbe UIt
. kit. M'
lt$tl'l'III. racsUII IIIIIerW llo atilIined hUIII SCIUIt1!$ b*wd 10 lie ,..
ItIll 6 ~
-.khuuI wtmnIies af
UIl1
THI: PI.l'1.IStR.IS~~NfYfRI1ORSORCMSSlONSHR[lfl
nm,....i5J=~s_.lNlIIa;ii
..;c:iIL .. ~IM~l'I"

d !NY be RptIItad. Wlnld


ill.". piMd. ...
cr IllI.- ... 0" ~
.. gnrJling cr
. InJ p-.. 0" tttdrcric~.
~
cr IJ1l*d.

Q"""'"

,.

'0

1 ".

1421

24

"

21~

40
32

-- -

--

I II

13.8%
II34MICI

23"
64.S

Pat

"-

''''

ANNUAL RATES

Cal.nd ..

...

...

Target Pric. Range


2003 200.
200S

".'-,

'0""

CAP: H50 rnIllon (small Cap)

(lIU.j
Ca"' ......

13....

1.6%

27.8
1. 7

302
16.5

1I1111~1I

- ..- ..

.'"

CURRENT POSITION

....,

...

.. .. ..

'28.'

IL\RKET

II

.... .-

Percent 1.5
ahar."
s.o~
t ... ded
2.5

SO

11111111

...." .
,,,,.'

,,;.

.-

II'

11'"

...

2001

. S

18.G

leA
10.8

'I,

...

1m
1998
1199

'.3

11.6

D!V1l
II.D

"

1986
198T 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
,.28
9.36 10.60 lU. 12.70
821
113
'.65
.61
J2
.93
1.01
.44
.63
A4
.53
.39
.43
.fit
.13
.30
.38
.28
.30
.32
.13
.11
.19
.12
.15
.0
.11
.11
.ll9
26
.50
.43
21
.65
29
1...
3.91
2.67
1.:
3.43
1.84
2.63
.83
2.39
41.4'
..... ".I
16.1
15.6
20.0
19.1
16.4
10~
.52 21.7
23.0
1.36
1.16
128
1.19
1.41
.54
.DB
'22
'23
1.3~
1.3%
1.7%
32~
22~
1.5%
1.9% '.9%
'.6~
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of III3MIO
485.S 516.4
Total Debt $83.5 mil DUll In 5 Yrw $40.0 mil.
10.4% 10.6% '0.9%
LTInm.t
$3.0 mlLT Debt $50.5 rnI.
10.5
112
11.6
120110nlcap~
22.S
26~
29.5
411% 31.0% 31.4%
Leas.., UIJClPitlJiZlld An/JJ,lll) 12f11a1s $3.0 nil
S2~
S~~
HI.
P_.1on U.b11ty None
49.3
31.9
47.0
29.6
1.8
1.1
PIrd Stock None
118.7
159.1
'392
Common Stack 38,264,818 slJar8l (8091. of Ca.;tl)
16.4% 18.'" 17.8%
u afll1"l1
19.0%
18.5\
18.9"
1984

ea"

12..4

rtassiln

25%

1_

78

51
I 21354

2DIlO
2D01

14.e

L.EGENDS
12.01 -Caih
p!lh
RI!!IIM Pm Slrfflglh
2b-' spI. 1M

Insider Deciaiona
NDJF_"."J
010
1 000
f 0
o , 0 0 1 051 1
o 1 0 0 1 061 1
Institutional
Dedam.,s

leA
11.4

Annl'QIaI

::.,

lO'j
6.9

'"

.6!l (1.oo.~
1.1lOJ.45
PRwEc,!'NS
_
Go/n
__

BETA

9~
".9

Low'

"jildOJ
fE RATIO. 097
17 PERAOO 13 6(ll1iiog:151~~lM

!rECENT
PRICE

.. Price Stibilty
Growth Pwailtnc:l

...

8++
75
30

: II:

II'.

CONOCO NYSE-<:OCA

3 ,..""'"
3, .......
3 .......

TIIUNESS
SAFElY
TECHNICAL

I~CEHl
PRICE
I

LEGENDS
. , Relillile

,=s::Yes
rrJ _

26 ~TKl 8 5

rOin9
IIfdiol:NIf: 9.7

PIn Slnngll

IlIV'D
)!FTM
Pf RAllO 0 58 YlD
2.9%

High:

Low:

25.8
19.4

31.3

19.3

T8tg11t Price

28.0
,8.8

80

- -- - --

oiIc11::*s nnssioII

n.oo~

am .!JO

~~5PROJfcnoNS
PrICi

55
40

,1111111.1"

III

"
12

Inside"Declllllms
Jf_"_JJA,S
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
00001
1 0 0 0
000011000
Im;titutional DKillions
10101
'~OI
Pen:ent 15.0
'06
'06
'23 sheres 1'.0
s.
1 99
93
86
183855 153498 154.800

,-

...

:=.a

110
50
40
32
2.
20

(11~\
22"
+55%
14"

.....S."".

AM'llata1
RI'Ium

Gain

Range

2003 2000 200s

10

--- ;;----

......
f-
.....
...
"'"
,~

--

'" TOT. RET\JR11111IQII

II

......

,~.

-72

"'91~C..

S~.

~
r

2001 eVAlllfUNEPIJB
O~5
Conceo became a publicly traded compa- 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1995Mo
.,
..
..
..
..
.. 36.31 .3_22 62.111 .151l R.... u.. pwlh
..
ny in October 1998 after DuPont conducted
"
.,
.. "
..
..
.. .. ., 2.'9 3.16 05 4.75 CuII Flow~per dI
an initial publ~ offering (IPO) for 30% 01 its
OJ
_.
.,
..
..
..
_71
oil subsidiary. DuPont issued 191.5 millon
3.111
H5 Eaningl pIf sh A
"
113
2.IIl
_.
..
..
..
..
..71
.71
.71 DiY'ds Ded'd per III
shares 10the public at $23a share, lor a to"
"
.12
'_.
..
..
..
..
..
3_1,
tal 01 about $4.4 billion. In August, 1999,
3.111
2...
"
"
~68
3M
Cafl:'
,-"""",s
""
III
.,
..
..
..
..
-.
-.
7.28 7.95
J.20 Book YI!uI per IdI
1.01
DuPont conducled a Iall-lree spinoft 01 the
"
13.95
.,
..
..
..
.. ..
remainin9 70% of Conceo stock 10 DuPont
"
0I!III0ft liftl WIlt'S '"
1""06 I 0<3.'" I " .'"
.,
..
.. .. .. "
.. 32_8 <O.T
shareholders, giving the entire diveslilure a
Avg Ann'l PI'f RaIO
17.0
Uno
..
..
..
.. 1.11 1.18 -;;;; 1'"'transaction valu. of about $21billion.
RIllUvI PIERlio
"
"
US
..
..
..
..
.1-' AvgAnn'l Dlv'dY"1IId
"
"
"
-'
CAprrAL STRUCTURE .. at 1l3OlOO
..
TotIl D.bI $4838.0 mAl. DUI In 5 YIS S2027 mill.
..
..
.. 25796 22T96 27039 39115 3!3/lil R........ (lmIIIl
"
"
1250
LTInterest S330 mill.
LT Debt $4266 mil
..
..
..
.
.33!%
"
32.5% 34.4%
35.'" U~
,,,,, ,f(;.p~
(Tatal Qaresl COV8IiIge: 5.&)
.,
..
..
..
.. 1179.0 1113.0 1193.0 1220 1231l 0_-11111)
"
"
131lS

..

..
..

UnCi1lpiblind Lusn: $197 million


P.nslon LlI.blly '129 milon il ~ YS$428 mil.
;'118

Pfd Sled None

PM DlY'd NM8

Common stock 823, 190,223


(53" .. o.PQ
As of tWoWO
MARKETCAP: S1e.Z btilion (lalli': Cap)

...

CURRENT POSrrlON

IlOlLl

c."""""

Receivables

~ry

(UFO)

CUl'I8ntAssets

~~able

""""

CurT1llntUab.

3068.0

1312.0
52.0
1361.0
2725.0

1489.0
863.0
1606.0
3758.0

.osI

"-

lUra.

.......

ga~~
.oda'

,..

217.0
2073.0

885.0
419.0
3594.0
1811.0
572.0
2107.0
4490.0

EsI'd'l7-"l'

n"- .
..
-.
---.

.---

_""'IS

"

Book Value

317.0
1735.0
703.0
313.0

mo.o

ANNUAL RATES
ReWlnu8S
"Cash Flow"

''''

394.0
1191.0
807.0
378.0

tnIOOIl

"

OlJARTmYREVEMIfS".aJ

HMF"
HMF"
/lNF
NMi'
HMF"

Full

1Iu.31 Jun.30 Slp.SO Dtc.31 Y..,


11!17 6S6O
5915 6671 66SO 25796
t!lill 5736 56t2 5916 5532 22796
1m 8311 62S2 74119 fiT 27039
2000 8524 9506 10587 1D5111 3BlZS
3_
20IIt 1_

c
."u
tll7
1991
1911
2000
2OlI1

....c..,
1991
II!17

1998
1911
2000

---

EARll\llGS PER SHARf


IIIlr." Jun.30 StD."
"

.SO

_.

..

.34

29

Dec.31

.-

d.42

_.,

.51
.13
.i8
.62
.n _83 .13
.71
.07
.ff
.ff
GROSSOlJARTfRI.y DN'OSPAIl"
.u.31

Jun.30 "'.30

Doc..ll

---.

...
..

--

_.

--

.-

.19

.19
.t9

.19
.19

.t9

..

.,
_19

f.' ..... m""" -;""';, ,,'8

Y..,
"

.7t
123
3.88
1.75
Full

r....
-"

--

.76

..
..
-'

..

..
..
..

_.
--

..

..

"":'.::

..

~"

...
..
..
..

.-

..
_.

_.

..

..
..

.,

.,

..

..
...

.,

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
--

.-

..

.,

..
..
.,

..
..
..
--

..

"

-.

..
"

..
"
"

.-

-.

"

..

.-

1097.0
47.9'11
4.3"
., 567.0
.. 1556.0
7896_0
.. 11.8%
., 13.9%
_. 13.9'1.

..
..

..

..

..

"...

......

31'"

M. ..'"

450.0 782.0
1870 11Dll Nit ProItWI
37.7% c.'" cn IncarwI Tu RIte
352%
2.0%
2.9%
UlI 4.'" Not Prolt
45_0 d690.0
2SIl
WJ W..... S Copl (1001)
35/l1l Lao.T"" IlobI (!nil
4689.0 4OllO_0 3.75
SIIr:Ea"",II..,j4438.0 '550.0
5.7% 10.6% tI~
ID.5% R*n 01\ TatalCtp'(
172%
17-'" Rnnw an Shr. EQUity
10.1"
18.'"
10.1%
7.4" 11.51 tin RdlIInId to Cen Eq
.. ST% 2IlI 32lI All Div'dl tD Nlit Prof

- ....

'-'"

1710

UlI

leo

'5llIl
12.5%
IS.'"
12.'"
2IlI

BUSINESS: Conoco is an int~


en~y COITlpartyengaged ill
the exploration for, development, production and saIB of aude oi,
netlr.ll gas, the rlfining of CIUlle oil and dB feM:!stoQs into penIiun
and the diltrilUl:i:Jn d petoAi~ products. Daily 1999
prod.: Oil, 326,000 bamIs; natural gas. 1.4 bi. tub ....
ReurvllS
.It 12131,199: B&3
bbIs. Di; 5.8 bil al. 1t ps. AW&gff 5-)'1.

fl1Cling ~
per banet $5.42 (w. indo svg. $4.42). 5-yr. ft!pIaC:ement ntB 9'''' (va. indo avg 142%). Has about 16,500 empmpes.
Cilp1al Research owns 13.1% of aJITITlOl1Ax:k: Putnsn Irrtvstmenls, 122%. 0lI'. & dr. awn 3.~ (JIOO pruxy). Prus. & CEO: Iv
chill Dunham. Int.: DE. Adli": 600 North Dary Ashfml Road, HousfOIl, 1)( 71079. Tet 281-M1000. Inl1If1l6t: WWW.QlOOl;O.Qlm.

Conoco's volumes should advance by


around
6% in Zool, thanks to a steppedup .capital
expenditure
program.
We
foresee Canooo's capital expenditures
in
2001 increasing by 8%, to 52.4 bUlton. The
expected volume gaJns will lIkely come
from Europe. Venezuela, AsIa, and the
Unlted
States'
Gulf of Mexico
(GOM). In
addition to the ramping up of the Brittanla
fields,
producUon
tn the Unlted
Kingdom will benefit from a full yea["'s
worth of the Saga Fields. which were acquired earlier thIs yeaI'. Increased output
in Norway should also help volumes. Too.
Conoeo should begin selling natural gas in
Indonesia. where there is much promise.
Favorable volume trends should support profits in Zool. Although we expect
the average oU price to be lower in 200 1
than In 2000, earnings
probably
won't fall
too la[". And refinery margins 1NOuid stand
to improve. given Jower oU prices. In additlon, Conoco has purchased put optlDns tD
support share earnings
In the event aU
~ces
decline.
e company will probab~ take advantage of its strong cash ow to pay
down
some debt in ZOOt.
Conoco's

stated goal is to ["educe its debt-to-total


capital raUo to about 42%. and it currently
stands at 48%. Also, we think it's quite
possible that Conoco may utUlze Its cash
flow to pursue acquisitions.
Coooco's long-term profit prospects
appear sound. With 85%-plus of the expeered volume gains 1n the next few years
slated to come from alre~-existlng
fields.
COCA's drUllng risk is
atlvely limited.
Too. Conoco has interests in some promlsIng fi.,ds.
SpedIlcally.
two fields In the
Gulf of Mexico, Princess and Magnolia.
should begin produetlon
In 2003 and 2004.
Too, ou~ut
in the cUlTently operating
Ursa Fie d should inc["ease by nearly 50%
in 2001. As SUCh,we think. Conocos stated
goal of annual volume gains of between 4%
and 5% has some Upside potential.
Conoco
should record
outstanding
earnings in 2000 and 2001. but Its share
prtce has barely moved. SustainabUity of
the earnings stream is likely investors'
concern In this very cyc1Ical industry.
Total-return potential over the ne.1d:few
years is quite attractive, however, assumIng a more generous valuation .
David Gallen
December22. 2000

ems.

ma-

diulBd tMnafter. Thllfe IK'Q no share eni1gsand {BI


-- N'IlX1 diniend mellIing abDul: Del;llll1ber -.""_
(e) In ......... s. ....
""""''''''.
i'l 1997 snce ConotD was naI yet a pubbly
3Oltl. Goes ex about Jana\lfY 10lIl. AppnJXiIradlld enUy. Nell e.-nngs I1lpM duIi ilia male diri:fs1d pa,rnent datK" 30th d Af.m,
ID ZUIl. 'MIe liIe
. Ine.. AI
It!lofIMlIl. l"~
__
G ~
IrurlI 5IOIUInS ~
lD be I"IiIIR ... it p1Mdell wiIIIlXll ~
1HEPlJ8USl'A5~U~Nlf[RAORSDRCMSSIONSH[A[".Thii~Ssft:lJlor~_.IlClI""=""""'iIIBM1.se-:1,;p.-1
d .. ..., tr ItfI1IlIlEed. *ftd .........
pi*d. ~
II" -.er "'"" 111151l111" ~
= ~..,
pt.s II MdrD'ic~.

il..,

.. "".T.

..

i~S1Dck's Price

eo

Stablity

Price Grawth hrwlQlnCII


Eamlnp Predictab'llJ
rI

NNF

bld.

,
smice II ~

NMF

I'.

: II:

II'.

CONSOL. PRODUCTS NYSE.cop~.~i


4 ",-,I/NJIJ
3 "".,'"'
4 "-' ,""'"

lIIEUIiSS
SAfrrt
TECHNiCAl
BETA .10

(l.oo.

0.7

1.9
1.0

4.3

,.,

2..

3.7

IN"'&)
c

2003-45 PROJECl1QNS
Price

Ann'llobl
RItum

GaIn

JF.AMJJAS
InskierDeciaions
-!IIIr
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
000020000

0pInI

. 1
4.3

10.3
'.3

1~3
8.1

18.8
11.2

19.2
7 .

12.0
'.3

,"

~
I

"'"
~-

..

--

li~~~~~~J====::;~m~~~============t===~
""'-1"

"

MARKET tAP: $200 mll.on (Small Cap)


CURRENTPOSmoN

t!!II

1t1t

Receivables

18.6
10.8

~.O
11.1

4.1
-4.0

4.4
6.6

4.8
52

5.3
6.4

15.1
2.6

25. t
18.4
4.0

Ca:"'~

Inventory (FIFO)
Other
Cul'l8n1 Au8ts

'"""4if.4

AcctsPayabte
Debt Due

Other

22.1

CummtLiab.

R8V81"1uas
"Cash FloW'
EamWigs .
Dividenda
Boot V.llls
fyisQI

.:

7f5lOCl

41.5

-,gj"

ANNUALRAlCS Past
lIfchlngl(plrllh)
,IYn.

Pht
SYn.

3.0%
7.5%

13.6
3,7

1--"::==---==..::::::c-===::..::=c""'=---==::::c-.:::=::::.--'=--'===--'==7'======'-----J

41.3

9.5%
-_

12.5%

11.5"
13.5%
14.0"
HI
16.5"

125% 04-2.0%
~

Est'd'!Ill'.
10'1].'15

4.0%
6.0%

L. QUARTERLY REVBIUES"

"""'"'19J"

rf::"

-- .... "" ..... Jun."" SepP. r_

11117
1.
1119
_

55.6

76.2

65.'
79.0

91.0
104.1

89.3 117.7

S7
61.7
725 64.0
88.5

94.9

266.2
312.6
366.5

97.8 '03.8 4111.6


111
121
47/J
Fe' L ~SPERSHAREM
EINIIIJK.P.r .,.PlT Jun.'" Sepl.r Y.r
1197 .'2
.14
.17
.,6
.59
1198 .'4
.16
.18
.,9
.01
1119 .19
.'1
.'8
.16
.61
2001

111

135

Ii~

2D01
C.1elKlar
1198

Nil

6.9~m 8.8G~~il~)I:'~
0.61~

3.'
1.7

r: ~',:=tj~

IRECENT
IPRICE

1197
1191

.16

.20
.2'
.17
.20
.24
.l4
QUARTERlY
ormamsPAII C
IIIT.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 DK.31

.17

.76
.IS
FUll
Yur

NO CASH DMDENDS
BBNGPAIO

- ~.

CUMMINS ENGINE NYSE-eUM


High:

4 ~ ""'"
SAFtTl
3 ...'"".
ITCKNICAI. 4 .. "" .....

JElJIiESS

IETA

",""

2.ft!.1 ~

.JO (1IIll. MIft!I)

.:r=-..,

"!::i'

",oP"

..~

f~21'~1~

..

..

DJFMA.JJA

0 e 2 0 0 0 1 0
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
00000
0 000

. ~I.II

..

..., ...... .-.. - .....


2640~ 22294

15.6

..

Uncaplt"adAnnualrenlals

37A

35.'

Medi.. ,I3J

3<.0

".8

3<.5

Pi t\A1Il

.2..

63.0
.3

65.7

28.3

,..

'/'''

" I.

..

111,11 1
"

T.~t Pric_ R..n~


2003 200_ 2005

50.0
27.1

3<.'

..

..
.'

I""

"

$47.0 mIL

..
..

10'1'"

....

..

15

..

..

..

N'"

NMF

253A
411..4
669.3

2192
~1
623!

NIfF NMF
NMF NMF
NIfF NMF
N'" NMf

.. ,...,. ..
.., 3''''. tll~"

Common Stodl 38,200,000 shs.


{53'" ofCBp'ij
MARKETCAP: $1.2 b1llon (Illd cap)
CURRENT P05rFION
III2WO
(lIIlL)
38
1097
~ceivables
1028
633
731
7.7
m
~enIory (UFO)
2112
274
293
2f8lj
CUrTtlntAs8tJ
2280
1878
.,1
31
m
Debl Due
123
1~
90
O!he<
7aD
--f!!
Cu~ntLiab,
1071 """'1'31i 1232

"

30
25
20

.
'

..

so

40

.... ....... f........

"'1

7.5

-~~:
~~ ~~ ~
5yr.
-15.5
llUl

-""..

199_ 1995 1996


2001
cVALUUNfPlll,IiC.
19Mia
1992
1993
108.87 110.34 108.16 130M 13H3 146.48 163.18 17 .25 17141' 161.10
8.65
7.80
517
7.78
.69
10.32 lU. lUO "Csoh_""",
9."
1.n
....5
6.11
6.03
3.n 5.46 '.!IS ~.13 05 <35 e.NngI pit III A.10
1.00
1.00
IDe
1.1D
1.13
1.1ll
1.1ll Div'dlDKI'dpwlh
20
.63
. 05
5.55
7.12.
1055
lI. Cop' "*,,,",11 ""_'"
. 52
5.~
7.08
5."
.as 100II VIIuI per .. e
1111
18.41
24.49
21.~
33.30 37.03 33.13
37.51
mo
JII."
3UO 38.10 JUII
0
18.1
6.9
11.0
115
8.9
7J
NMF
11.7
A'II AD., PIE.....
R_PIE
.....
1.13
.69
.68
.53
.46
Nil' .67
.31
.51
2.1
1.7'J.
2.31
231
A~ Ann' IWd YJIId
1.4" 2.1
37492 4241.9 4737.2 5245.0 5257.0 5625.0 6266.0 6639.0
mil
6.7%
.'1 9.2'4 UI
6!I
7.71
US
al 9.4%
"I
233,0
143.0 149.0 '56.0
1
..
122.5 125.1 127.7
199.0
115
67.1
1826 252~ 2401.9 150.' 212.0
115 NoT ProIt
1121.0 180.0
1.
..
..
25.21 25.'"
21ft 2UlI IncorII ta RaIl
11.6' 1D.e-. 13.8%
24.'"
531
2.9% 3!I
UI
NMF 2A% Ul' Ul' NoT PnIItMqin
"I
655.0 605.0 1188.0 1m
271.4
311.4 ~!
335.0 6320
1m W_II Cop' (lnll)
412.4
1370
189.6 154.9 117.0 283.0 5220 "37.0 1092.0
. I
501.1
821.1 1072.6 1183.0 1312.0 1422.0
1465
1!1e Shr.
1272.0 '.21.0
11.4%
51
1.7%
9.'91 191' 213% 19.'"
RIU'n on ToCIICIp'
13.1 2211 23.61 20.1% 11.5" 14.K
R_
00 SIr. EquI1y
N'" 1111 11....
14.41
8.41
11.7%
NMF 7<% 9.01 7.... RItIinMI m Ctn Eq
23.6"" 211% 11.31
17'J.
81
101
161
VI
21%
NMF
29%
:illS
2'" AI Dlv'dI m NIl Prof

....

;:

--

...

I.

.. Tat REnJRII MlO

..

80

-11'1,111.

..
......

125
100
80

- -- - --

\/

P-nslon LiabiMtJ NDINl


Pfd Stocl None

-=-

57.

,/

Perc-nt 15.'
80 _11&"'15 10 .
79
20788

..
..

ca"' .......

....

54.4

... /

1989 1990
1991
19&4 1985 1986 1987
1988
123.10 111... 108.78 129.90 15518 171.61 116.67 114.73
lUl
7.28
m 5.80 5.13 5.82
.83
1.81
3.18
.28
d1.06
d2.46
'.76 ".69
'.29
"2
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.03
1.10
1.10
1.10
J5
m 4.95 4.17
5.7. 10."
8.80
6.37
7."
19.89 18.05 17.1.
:W31 37.01 30.94 321iO
2751
1.
1
11.Jl lIJ."
..
..
11.0
. 1
NMF
..
]9
.38
NMf
3. 1
3.11 3.31 291
UI
1.71
'.31
2'1
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as of IImtO)
346U 340!15
3.1
.01
Total Debt $1447 niL Due In 5 y", $510 nil
143.4
1271
LT o.bt $1313 mil
IT Interest $80.0 mil
d102.2
1165.6
(L T irtBr8S1 earned: 3.7X;
talal itt8I&SI CO'itng8: 3.5x)
("%ofCap~
L.....

40.4
26 .

inIi:::aosl'IUssiIn

InsUtutional DecIsion.

::::.,

27.3
16.3

8 O(T"ir\l11~FlM0 59 DIVtl
YID
3.8%

Pi
t\A1Il

11113

~d_

Insider Decision.

"

27.8

32

LEGENDS
5.!o I a:.!ItI farOp ~
. '"
RetI*': M;e ShngBl

""'3-45 P'OJE~N.S
Ann'Toial
Price
GaIn
RIP'n
100'
85 +105%

..."'.

38.1
24.0

CEHT

IFPRICE

"":: :::

-D

DJ.45
12U5
17.711
'.15

I..,
US
55.71

,~

-~~~n.:-)

4.7,

"50

,.... '....

.....

HUSIIIESS: ClnIIWIS Engine Co., Inc. is a 18ad"~manufactww of


diesel In ..
., 1M 55 hp. to 2,700 hp.. fangli . Pnnary nwUb
D:lude the hlsIvy. Ind medilln-duty wek, bus Incl Ighl Wuct.
pDW8I" gen., IJ'Id IIcIustnaI naksIs. Hartl! AmeR:an
helvy-duly
dillMl
rnoft8I .hIn: IIbo&rt 32%; rrdIInge 1TlillrUl: shW8:
IbiD prodUC81nabnl QltS....,. Rnign sales: 39"" oIl19

.fIl
'.!IS
9710
II..ll1
325
35f
3O.DI

"'"
~~:=lnoII),..,

''''''

11.lO

2115
11....
1{!Ill
'01

"'"

kaI sa_. R&D: 3.7'" of sales. '99 dfll)llC. 1iIt8: 7.5"'. Has lbout
28,500 llI'I1pbyees; 4,800 shal8!1okiln of *Ud. OIls. & din. lJIIJm
IBss thin 1.~ of amnon stoct; FUR Corp., 6.87%; ESOP & lImI*Jyte I*ISDn pia"', 17.90% (3100 prcxy). Ctnm. & CEO: T. M.
Soilo. Inc.: IN. Addl"BSS: 500 J-=kIon st., Box 3005, CoUnbul, IN
47202. TMtphOne: 812m3121. ln18met www.DIIM1iIs..ccrn.

Cummins
Eng1nes earnings
have
company Is headed toward a detour.
decelerated
in the second Iullf of this Both the heavy- and medium-duty truck
year. In the September period, sales and markets are now plagued by rising compenil.
"_Ipu)
operating
earnings Slipped 3.6%
and tltlan, falling pretax margins, and Incross.5%
6.'"
''CasI1 Flow"
. 0%
13.5"
33.0%. respectively. A severe weakening in ~&D
2.5'"
costs. Cummins Is aggressively
.. ".5%
2ll.~ the dIesel engine market and difficult comg down its employment rolls and
-- 29.0%
1.5"
parlsons in the fMlWer~eneration sector slashing overtime, but the market probBoc*Value
3.0%
7.5"
104.5"
weighed down results.
orth American
lems likely will persist. Thus, we expect a
QlJARTElll.Y
SAW II".}
Full heavy truck makers have slashed prod- major cost-cutting action soon and a comCaI".r.Per .....n.Per.5tD. Per, Dec.Pllr,
uction (and engine orders) from high flntmensurate restructurtng charge (excluded
1897 1304 1396
1368 1559 5625
half levels.
Through the 12 months ended from our estimates) In the current quarter.
1891 1500 1635 1525 1606 626B
June 30th, large tru.ck output ran at about Management is
a signlficant part1899 1505 1667 1631 1635 6639
a 300.000
annual
pace. Currently. the ner to boost operating everage. As yet. no
2000 1648 1769 1572 1711
OEMs are turning out vehicles at a specific armowx:ernents have been made .
16111 II1lP
11/1D 1.
160,0lJ0.170,000
yearly rate. We look for The strategic road map shows better
EARllNGS PER SHARE It
F_U pnxluctlon to hold steady until mid-2001.
CaIlong-term prospects. Cummins plans to
You
.ndlr Mar,Per.Jun.Ptr,StD,P".
Dtc:.Ptr.
and then slowly rise to yearend. assuming
build on Its exlstlng profitable operatlons
1891
1.06
1.38
1.68
~ the U.S. economy stays healthy. Sales to and move into new areas with better
1.38
1891
.18
.75
1.38 <12.88
'.55 the North American medium-duty tnIck potential than the hea~
and medlum1899
.63
.65
. 13
1.50
1.35
market are also down shaJllly from 1999 tnIck. engine categories.
graphic dIver2000
1.09
1.62
.65
<15
JI
sity has been a plus. and exposure to the
2001
M
US
US tallies. A key customer. Freightllner. has
'111 US
cut back orders. Meanwhlle. generator
bus. light truck. power generation. marine.
OIWITERI.'O_PAIl"
Full demand. has eased some. after a big surge
CaIand industrial markets suggests solid fuY....
lIIar.3t Jun.30 StD.30 Dec.3t
late last year that was caused by concerns ture results. All said. Cwnmins stock will
1896
.25
.25
1.00 over possible YZK computer
.25
.25
glitches. likely face some downward pressure in the
1891
.2.1
.275
.275 1.lIII Based on recent orders. though. strong
.Z75
near tenn. but potential 3- to 5-year re1891
.275
.Z75 1.10
.Z75
.275
power generation results are Ukely ahead.
twns largely compensate ror this risk.
.275
.v5 .275 .30
1.13
Management
is shifting gears,. and the DavjdM.R~
November 3, 2000
.30
.30
.30
tampl';l
Fnalldal StNngth
B
lAi
~3, 12;. ) ~ ...... bouI N... 2. l);,'d ...... " ......
ANNUAL RATES

s_

5:rJ:s

Put

,.Yn..

Pul

..""

EA'cI'I7."
10'13-"

.-

....,

-..

..

seekln,

,):

"*""" .." .... .,.,"' .. _.......

,............... ""' .....",,~

c.e.

Qill'lS (bsses); '84, (96); '85, (55I; '86,


Ind. walT. and mtnd digs.: _
.88; '99.
15th of March. June, Sep.,
u Diy'd reil(S4.94~ '88, (12.30); '9O-ar.1.44); '91, $1.74;
$1.16. ~
.eamiIg!l",:port
due Bt8 J.....
wst. plln lI\'iIibbIB. (C) I~ lllangilles. In '99:
'92. (S .73);"83. (16'); , (""J; '95, 24.
(H) Ned dMietI:I meelng Ibout Feb. 9. Nlrx1
$16.OSI'sh. (D) In mils, -.lJ d farspiL
o ZlXlD,YalJI! IiIe ~
AI ~
nsemd. fldllll .,..
15 atairB rr- 5CMte5 t8ieWlIlD be l"IIiItII!- ... il. ~""......-1115
d ~ tild.
THE PUBUstEJllS M1T RE
SlM.E OR MlY .RRORS OR OMISSIONS HREtt.This ~
B sR:Iy" 'IlIbltIiber'5 _.
MIll
.... irterml U5e. opllt
rJ
be tq:IIIIIDIL ....
or ~
P*lI.IIItmIIc CI" lIhrr IDrm. or uwt Irr ~
or ~."
....
or I!IIfdrtIic pIDbIaI. ~
or pgIttl

I...,

i1..,

SiDell'. ric. StabIIIIJ


Prb Glllwth PwlisI8nc:II
EII'III. PrwcIIcfI:bllly

60
30
5

DARDEN RESTAURANTS NYSE.DRII~fJr 26


I

2 RIMdwm
3 ......... ,
2 .... ,111 ..

TIIIEUIIBS
SAFElY

PriCli

High:

Low:

lZ.'
9.3

JFMAMJJAS

...--.:
'" .........
,
.",

..
..
..
..

..

..

..
..

..
..

",

..

.."

20.3

Pa)'IIbM

""""

ANNUAL RATES

"_11-"')

'34.2

Put

,tyn,

.....
Yu,

1997
199'
1!199

2OlIO
2llOt
Fiscal

l:l

316.7

1SOU
'54.8

117.5

353.6

613.3
"".9
Put Est'd .... '00
/0 ... 75

Sf...
6.0%
5.5%

..
..
.,
.-

Sal ..
''CaSh Flow"
Earnings
DM:Isnd3
Book Value

..,..

2!Ml.'
t4O.5

25.'

Cunvnl Uab.

:0.'

176.1

94.2

327.7
1+t.7

Debl.Due

32.'

28.0
1422

122.3

Cunent Aas8t:s

FIM:III

"'.1

144.1

Oth.,

Accm

41.0

8.5"
12.0"
17.0"

7~%
Nil

--

2004

2005
50
40
32
2.
20
18

",
/I

12

I'. -- .

--

2003

- -- - - -- - --

NMF

QU.\RTERLYSALll

Hew.'"

".5"

13.5"
F.,

II 011.)'
~ug.P.,
F,b.P,.r Iby Pe
805.5 748.'
800.8 816.7
8ll9.3 745.3 811.2 921.2
886.0 791.2
886.9 914.0
929.4 848.2 917.5 1006.2
018.2 IJ/I
If5 11111.1
EARNINGS PER SIIARE"
ug.P.r Nov.Per FebP,r Illy Pe
.13
d.C7
.10
.19
.18
.05
.20
:n
.33
.24
.11
.11
.35
.18
.36
.t"l
.46
.511
.22
.41
IIIL\RTEJlI.Y 0NIlIIIDS PAIl'"
.,.31 JU8.30 St'.3D Doc.31

A_,
'os,

3171.8
3287.0
:w58.1
3701.3

41125
F.,
Yos,

F1AcoI

..

',.- .

"" Tat

ii

1997
20.13
1./5

~l)'"

I---- 3,..
5

yr.

""
0170

122..5

..""" '--

133.5

...

<1.8

1117
8J"

1998
1999
2000
2001 IVAUreIJllEPlIl.IiC.
26.11
23.19
30.29
SlltsJlll'shA
248
1.62
1'7
1.15 '"Cull fIcM&' 1*'.
.96
1.31
.67
UII EanioI)o I*' oh
.1l6
.1l6
.1l6
.II! Div'd'o.d'd.1Il
Co
.0'
19
1.114
94
UO
US CIp'I~,
I*'oh
1.01
723
7.30
7.86
Book YIIUI pw It!
1
'.ff 1
1.
a
,42
19.0 l1J
115
,A.wQAnn
.91
1.08
1.19
94
R_MR ..
.9%
1%
.4%
.4%
Ayt Ann' DiY'd YIIId
SaIos (lnoII)
3111.8 3281.0 3458.1 37'01.3
7.4'4
9.1%
11.4% WI"
136.9
126~
125.3
13O~
1M D.,..a::':1Il)
135.3 173.1
54.3
101.1
117 Nol_
27.9fi
33.8% 34.8\ 35.4%
Incomt fu b1I
(JlI ,,",Pto ....
1.7lI
39%
4.7\
3.''4
dJ5I) W_a Cop'! (lnll)
dl43.2 d161l d206.' d31U
3132
310.6 314.'
304.1
450 Lan,T .... 00hI (~
1081.2 1019.8 964.0 960.'
ll11JD SIItE
4 ....
8.4%
11.4%
14.5%
It'" Rn.m on ToW CIp'l
R_ on &hr. E..<tv
'.lIlI 10.0" 14."% 18.0% ft'"
08% 12.9% 17.D%
R_IoCaoEq
3'"
6%
8%
ft AI DfY'ds tD ... Ptvf
23"

~,

!lUSINE5S; D8fdefI R8st11IIiIl'Ita, Inc. (spun oft tmn General Mia


.5m5} is /he wortt'.largest casuat dimg opnb", ritI 1,101 unls
II 49 U.S. statal and 37 unls i'I Canlcla (810 &'00). Operates two
rnap ctl8ins: R&d LoDsIw(sedxld;
853 unils; rtg. check,.S14.50)
and The Olive GoWen (ttalia.n food; 469 ~
avp. ctIeck. $12.(0);
also operates 14 BahMrra Bteeze unb and two SInoIley fk:tnQs

..,

'"2ll

O~
4Ull

I.m
1.15
.1Il
11G

L"

'1f5

""'"

'.51

'"
(BBCl. Co. awns

RETURIi 1111D
>no

3 .

9302!l

''''

T arv-t, Price Rangll

10

'A

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
William Darden opened the first Red Lob- 1990
..
..
..
..
.. 20.03 20.24
slar res1aurantin Lakeland,Florida in 1968.
..
..
.. f54 1.61
TITaIcompany was sold III Gene",' MiHsin
"
..
..
..
.. .68
1970. The O/iYaGanisn, a new concepl de.75
..
.. .1l6
.eloped by Darden, opened its iIst
-..
..
.. <11 ,.36
res1aur.mlinI98~lnMayl~,Oanden~
..
..
came an independent publicly held comp..
7.43
"
7.15
..
..
..
..
..
ny when GeneralM~lsdistributedall Darden
1S . 1
.
,
..
..
shares 10 its sharehold.... The internally
15.6
"
..
..
developed Bahama Breeze concept opened
1.1ll
.96
-"
..
..
..
.. .J'
its first un~in Orlandoin 1996.
"
"
..
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE n at BlWDO
2542.0 2731.0 29610 3163.3 3191.8
Teal Dlfbt $45,5.9 mil. II!; Ow 1n.5 YIlI $157.0mil.
., 11.31 11.1'; 11.4\ 10.01 10.~
..
IT Debt $301.1 mil.E LTInterut$20.0 mil.
..
.. 99.' 115.7 124.7 13S.5 134.6
(LT inIllrest 8BffilId: 11.71.; tN.I intererl ccverage:
.,
.. 111.6 118.5 lll1
IIl6.3 1192
., 31.0" 38211 36.4% 31.9% 36.1';
..
(24% af Ce.p'~
..
.. .4.4, 43% 4211 3.4% 1J'
Laases, UneapltalDd Annual rentals $49.5 mIL
.,
P.nslon Uabllity $2.5 mil. in "00 wnus S2.1 mil.
..
. d'llS.4 d9l.S d~.7 d1S7.3
., '99.
..
..
.. 4.0
3.9 303.8
301.2
PIlI Stoct, None
.,
..
.. 1211.4 1401.3 1174.0 1222.6
..
., 9.B%
..
,2'1\
8.1\
8.3%
Common Stock 119,436,329 shl. (78" "Cap~
.,
..
.. 9.'" '.7lI 92% 9.7'1
Ui of l12li00
IIARKETCAP: '-3.1 blliQII (11M! Cap)
..
..
.. 9.81 0" 92% 8.71..
.,
CURRENT pOSITION
8127...
..
..
..
.. 11%
J:"IJ..)
C. ......
ReceiYables
Inventory (FIFO)

"

...

t.O

123

05020

0.3%

27.0
12.4

15.6

. .

.. '"'' .h.~
P.~'"
l~'"

..,

~t~

6.8

23.'

001
000
, 0 0
"",. o 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 J
00000
0 , 0 1
IMtitutlonal Deer.lon.
101"
~..,
102
65
70

'41

18.9
11.8

1Z.!i

14.0
7.5

Inskter Decision.

........

DIV'D
llD

lItdi.,:NIIF

't::;<'"
~~~t(<<e'niln

Rnrm
'5%
4"

GaIn

i:7511
+15%

.as
3D

LEGENDS
10.0. 1l:15h H1.~ 5h
... R~~PInSl

TECHNICAL
8EIJ. ,ra ('l.DO.1Ibn.e:J
2oa~5l'ROJEC11ONS
Arm' Total

16 3(TrOI,,"Il)IFTlI'E
Pi RAm 113

Pi
RATXl

1..
1.65
.3l'

IL'"
filii
l..
J5.SI

~1%
dJI5
Il8Il
1535

'10"
1'-'"
'Ull
4%

ITD5t d Is s .. and lea_ !he leSt. 'tXI dep1lC.


f31B: .5.0". Has lIbt. 1Zl,300 empby.; 31,896 s/w1lkh. d 19CD1d
PlUdentiallllSlI".
lMnS 13.6% CIf conmon; AmI6. Etpess Rsli'e.,
9.3'4; FUR Corp., 6.B%. 01'/. and dr. own 4.1% (BIOO Proxy).
Char. & CEO: J.R. Lee. Inc.: FL ~.:
.5900 L.-. EhD Orin,
OrIa.ndo, Fl328O&. TeIlI.: 407-24s-401X1. Wab: ..... Dan:len..eum.

Darden Restaunnts
is posting solid net to reach $1.60. a nickel more than
comparable-unit sales gains,. due large- our previous estimate. Operating marly to the successful restaurant reposition- gins should widen further as the company
Ing program
thai began In mld1997.
The benefits
from
Improved
top-Une
growth
~tor
of the Red Lobster and The Olive and
effective cost controls. Moreover,
arden chains began the overhaul of 11:'5share earnings
should
be helped
by the
two main businesses by shuttering a large ongoing aggressive share~repun:hase~
number of underperformJng unJts, and un- gram. which boUght in another 3.4
on
dertaklng a major remodeling program. shares In the Ilrst quarter. For fiscal 2002,
Additionally, the companJ embarked on a our tentative estimate is $1.80-S1.85.
campaJgn to upgrade roo qualJty and cus- Darden's
plan to generate
double
tomer service. Darden introduced new dlgl~
long-tenn
eanJings growth will
menus at each operation, which featured likely depend on the success of its
~eater product variety and more value of- newer growth concifats. Early results
ertngs. The implementation of these pro- at Its newest concepts.
hams Breeze.and
grams has contrlbuted to steady ina-eases Smokey &nes. have exceeded expectain customer traffic and average tlcket size lions, and we expect both chains to expand
at both chains. In fact, the solld top-line rapidly in the years ahead. Too, the comFJrns enjoyed by The Olive Garden and pany will consider
other expandable
for'ed Lobster have rerenUy been among the mats as opportunities become available.
highest In the restaurant industry, and Darden's shares are timely for yearare the driving force behind Darden's 1m- ahead investing.
But after cllmblng
very
proved operating perfonnance. Moreover, sharply
In price
during
the last
three
the company is coming off its best quarter- months. the stock's 3- to 5-year capital
Jy showing ever, and we expect the posJ- gains potenttal Js now cather UrnJted,
live trends to continue through fiscal 2001 based on our current ean1.lngs assump(ends May 27th) and Into next year .
lions for this extended time period.
We expect Darden"s fiscal-2oot share Maurice Levenson, CFA December 15, 2000

..
..."-'._b~~~'11;--~--~
'~'----~~1~

1991
1991
1!199

20111
Cal.

.,

1998

1991
1991
1899

..

.-

..
-..

..

.114
.114
.114

-..

---

.04

.0'

.114
.114
.0'
.0'
0'

caL )'811'. (B) Ba. on avg. sin. ttvough '97;


dluted dw.
_95. 1IlI1 nol SI.II'ItJ kltal
due \l dlanges II avg. sm. Eu:l nornctI".

0bV.

tl1t1l1,-..eLne~M~~.
THE fI\.8UStIllSfCl
RE
III.,
bllIf"*al1*Rd

.1iI

.96

1.31

1.5/1

,,
Full

.08
.08
.08
.06

37;; '96, 28: '97, 93;' E.lcL norncu,. gain:


"99,3;; lXI, :. Next eg:s. due IaI8 AI~.
(eIDjy'lis. paid serTll-llnnualy. Next diYd. mtg.

~m

fotttlal.-iltiJ
GRIMY fRRORS OR OMISS1QNS HERE". Thil.
CI' dtxr ..
1IJ ....

~iI., ~ ...
SIBlE

1IJ

.35

".y

~
da8!l:
1, Nov. 1. tI Diw'd. nti1'l8Sl
pJan mtI. (D) In mil f~ Doesn't n!fIsd $150
rnl. S--yr. nm-cal 8.375
. netas, 11M! 9100.

~lGbeAllliltlle"'6pMf111l""~d~bII1.

"'~.-**,

putIliqIali5 5ftIy1ar~_,iiOlllaiias""
~pWwllJ ~.-w~

ae.
pm
511WiP!'lIJ paUt

....

S1Dct's
rtcestabilly
'lice Growth ~
earnings Pl'Bdlctabilty
t

, "

70
50
45

: It:

IIIECEIIT
IPRICE

FEDDERS CORP, NYSE.FJC

5.8
3.04

5.3
1.8

'.1

'.7

3.'

~3

2.4%

5.'

7.'

7.'
3.'

7.4

'.3

7.1

'.0

roilJVIII Price Rllnge


2003 2004 2005

3.4

25
20

,.
12
10

-a ."
_.. '.

... "

......

...

-.

1&1'-

,Of

p.rc_m15.'
1'.0 -

. .. 11.1 III".

trw.ded

"

.. "'" I ,"'1,1 "I 'f"

.h.~.

,I,

'Hot.

-.

5.0 -

RrT'lJtIIIlll1lD

1yr.
yr.

~
.. ~
-21.9
30.0

5)'1'.

-18.1

1GUI

1984 1985 1986 1987


5.02 ~.'l5
3.83 511
.31
.22
.16
3D
.2D
.11
.12
.26

.00
.07
.12
."

.10

.06

.06

d."

d1~

J4

.62

"'"

1,..
1.<3
.-

"...

0.6
2.08
1.'%

"-"

.11
1.23

Z< ...

3M
'6.1
"~
250
lJl8
~
1.6% 2.9111 32%
CAPITAL STRUCllIRE as of 5mIW
Total Debt S'69.8mil.
LTDebtS1SB.~miI.
PHSIon Ulbility None

16
2.42
125
Jl5
28%

DIItI k15 V" S75.0mil.


LTlnterest S1B.Omii.
('''' ofCap~

PId ..........
CClIhmOI'l Stock 35,110,354 shs.
(43'" or Cap'Q
Ind. 16,768,589 Class A stls; 2.266,400 CIBss B
shs, CXIIMrt 1.a-1 intl mnwnon. Ciliss B ,hares
IJa'lfe lug" YWIQ ~hls.

MARKET
CAP:$175million(Smallc.pl
CURREHTPOSITlON 1_
1tH

11IIll.l

cash

Assets

RBalNabMs
Il1\'WIrrtory (FIFO)
~As:seCs
Acds PIIyllble
Debl Due

91.0
14.5
52.3
1~~
25.8
2.1

11
1.18
... "

"
4.1\
241.4
10.9'4
16.5
d!J
.
N'I'
58~
88."
61.5

5131.

117.5

54.5

21.0
61.6

83.6
M1.4

35.4
4.6

34.8
11.4

2~~1~:~

.10
1.28
... 1

.10
.55
".ti!
.-

.
.
4.6%
.
191.4 192.4
~~% ~n
10.6 14.9
d111 d21.6

.
NMF NMF
111.1
d271
49.0 45.0
442
19.0

2.4~

NMF

NMF

N!I'

NMF

'MF

NMF
N":

NMF
NMF

NMF

JIB
.64
31...
.-

.01
124
".11:>
7.5

13
2.t))
".W
1.6

.17
3.74
".bI
8.5

.,.
3.7~
'I.'"

15
3.06
.. '"

16
3.02
".U4

15.5

N....

9.9

..
.49
.51
.53
.89
NIE
.

.
1.3% 1.3\
1..%
158.6 Z3l.fi 316..5 S7t.B 314.1 322.1
U% lH% 1~.3% 15~% 13.3% '21%
5.6
9.4
1.5
6.6
9..9
9.3
d1.6 19.2 29~
31.2
18B
3.0
..
3.0" 11.3" 38.0% 35.0\ 35.0%
NMF 83% 9.3% U%
6.0'1
.9'/,
16!
383
56.1 8GB 1"-1
113.1
23.4
11.3
4.5
38.5 113.5 108.9
242
49.3 BH 159.8 1457 104.8
.3"
31.1\
35.0"4 16.3\
8.n.
3.6%
NMF 39.0'1 35.1% 1;~
129%
29%
NMF 39.0% 35.1'11.18.3% 9.5%
NMF

10'Ai JOI4
118%

leadi1g rnalllJllchJrwof room.ir


COfIdmneq; (esti"naiIcl
nwtM aha"e: 30%) for mifentilf
Bnd
CCIIYI'lIKCiiIIITInets. Also rnake. detuni:lifin. Brand nllJllS: Fedden, AiI1etnA Ernef50iJ QIiet KaoI'(ecqlQl 1~1). Acquhd Tron,
an ill:ioor-ilf QIIiIity IUpp!ier, SI99. Hal pll.nts in tlilois, T~
see, u.y1iInd, NMh CmoinI, N8w "'1:0, SpUl, China, and ttlI

BUSINESS:Fedden Corp.

15

.II

...
.15 C",,~;por..
3.0411 " .. BookYaU...
9.6

.56
.67
1.9% 2.0'
356.0 409.8
15.1% ,,,,",,
10.3
WI
20.6
20.~
33.4% J5.G'%
'B%
5.0'1
1123
115
158.9
1M
108.9
1.20
9.7%
'A
16.9% 17.&'K
15.4'11. 1.iDl
19%

21%

...
US
35...

.. 0
;.

A,vRMl'iIPItKlla

11.0

RIkIivI Pf Rdo
Ayg Ann' Dlv'dYWd

.15
"""

OS ....

~J...

ISI

1~," -lbr;il
1,u DIfnddcin(N'
'4' NoIPn>llllnlil'
35.01 InanI Ta RD
U" NoIPn>1lM'"
"" W_;CIp'11oI1I)
11JI longTtmDlbl~J
'511 stir,
D
11.51 RIUnClllTotIICIp'1
2O.&'KR....... Shr. E~
17.5% RmIMd to COlIEq
14'

".R

.zu

AI
J5.fI
''''
"'"
151
""

11.5%

17-'"
11D%

AlDiv'datoNttPraf

101

Philipines. 1111.
salss: 11% rA '99 menll8s. Has .bout 3,100 .IlInptJyees; 6,500 sh_hokMn.. Chamn:
SaIviItore Gixdano. ChiBf
Ex&cutMt 0Irw::er and Pnls.: SBIwaUt GDdano, Jr. Ol'fian and
dnc*n own about 25.0~ of allhnS
(11S9 pItlllJ). Inc.: DE. ADdress: 505 Ma1i'lSV11lt Roed, P.O. Box 813, L.bII1y Cc:m.Ilr, NINI
Jeney 07938. Tel: 1lOBfi()4 8686. 1!UnIIt: WlttW.ltdden.com.

--.EM
115.2 F e dd en

will be I00 king lor


~ more
~
.8equipment.
i-='"",c::===",""".."..-'-':-=-=--=~-:-=:'::::-lvorabJe summer
weather
in fiscaJ Fedders
should
also benefit
from Its
ANNUAL RATES Put
Put Est'd'l7'.
Zool
(ends August 31st). The unusually new partnership
with Maytag. Fedders
~~(PWIll)
11~m,.
cool weather
throughout most
of the
and Maytag, the third-largest appliance
''CashFbw''
1.0%
25.5% 22.0"
Northeast, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic U.S.
manufacturer
in Nonh America. signed a
EamWiO'
-.2.5%
-28.0"
regions this past summer, combined with
to-year licensing
agreement earlier this
Dividends
-6.0%
9.01
Boot Value
8.5% 32..5% 17,~
higher interest expenses. led to a steep year. Under the tenns of the deal, FJC
..... ,
QllAR1Rl.ySAWII""A F., decline
In operating margins
In fiscal
will have the exclusive rights to market
y....... Nodi Feb.21 .......31 Aun.31 FIsQI 2000. The company has stepped up its ae- room air conditioners
under the Maytag

1-.~-F;;T'--'rr;r-iif'r-,:;;~;:+...Y\';"c;'Cl
qUisltion activity to minlm1ze its exposure
brand name in the U.S.. Canada, and Mex1197 33.1 60.6 1.43.8 76.6 314.1 to the highly
volatile domestic roam-air ico. FedderS plans to roll out a full line of
25.4 33.6 172.1 91.0 322.1 oonditioner market. Although Fedders has MaytBg brand air conditioners next year.
25.7 58.9 175.6 95.8 356.0 expanded its foreign room air'"(;ond1tioner FJC will pay Maytag a royalty for the use
J:2
1~6
~8
operations and domestic Indoor alr-quallty
of the Maytag brand name. All told, asFIKef
EARMllGSPERSHARE".
Fill
pnxiuct lines over the past two years, it surning nonnal U.S. stUnmer weather. the
Nodo F.U8 Illy 31 Aug.31 AeQJ still remains highly dependent on summer
company should stan to bulld some decent
Hi~-F.iiii''--'=ir::''i'-=T,-'t-'Y''''~'rl weather condltions in its major U.S. mar- earnings momentum In fiscal 2001.
1197 d.03
.ot
.26 .12 .39 kets.
Padent
and risk~tolerant investors
,..
d.09 d.32
.37
.11
.07 The
company
recently
purchased
may
want to c::onsider these untimely
I.
d.O!
.02
.48
.13
.56 Eubanks, a leading manufacturer
of shares. The stock's 3- to 5year appred.
-2001
d.06
.04
.47
.12
.57
tlon
d.D2
"'7
.5$
.15
AS t e I ecommumca
coo Ung
eq ulp- atlon poten Oal appears very wi d e. though
c.""
QUAR7ERL.TDNI>BI1SPAI)c
ment. Eubanks. with
annual sales of somewhat
speculative at thlsjunet.ure .
ndar lar.31 Jlln.30 Sap.3D DIc.31 ::
roughly 521 m1llion. strengthens Fedders'
Perry H Roth
December 8. 2000
r.:~-t=~i-",,-";;;'--"":~-"':;;;:+-'=:ii-l
position in the high-growth
professional
CASH POSITION
~T.. rA'"
1.
.02 .02 .02 .02
.08 cooUno markets. The acquJsJtJon follows
02
08
~
C.....
toCllTWrtl....
204,.,
185~
1191
.02
.02
.02
.
.
c1nsely on the heels of the company's pur1.
.02 .02 .025 .025 .09 chase of SUN Manufacturing, another top
Cash& Equlot. to c ..... nt UlI::MM:
4O'l&o
47'1,
1199
.025 .025 .03
.03
.11 al
II
U
r
I
un!'
WOl1:hgCapb:IIaSeIM:
Z1"
28"
2000 .03 .03 .03
r..coo ng supp er lor te ecomrn
cation
(AI From '92. fiscal)'l'. endlSrJ1. 'i11n IHTo
12;'86, 13;'S7, 27;. '88, 25. Excl
exabou1.Fab. 10lh.Next (lB)'ITMln1 dshI: Mar.1\ ~Cornpany'l FIn.nclill Shngt1l
C++
y&ilI", 111-&31. '8J.'90, c:al (BJ DiJllld egs.
al!C. ops.: '85, 15; '86, 11. ~ egs. ntp.
CDIIncl. intlIng. In 1999, $74.0 mil;
Stoct'l Prtc. Sta.btIIy
75
EltL nornau. giMl (bsws):"90, (52;); "92,
a.. Ia18 Dee. ee) ow. ausp. l0iWa1,
$2.05Ishin. (El InmlDns, Ildjusted b nx:k
PriceGrowtll PliI'1JlllllllQ
30
(11;); '94, 6j; '98, ~).
En eth. gainS::
rvl1stlltsd 9151950.
N8xI: diY.m1g.1i!118 J1n., goes splits.
EamlnlJl PrIdIcttbIlty
2D
II ...,.
'Mot LN ~
IlIc. All rwt, ~.
fM21111 m.-.. is CIIIlIiRd Inlm saIIteS ~
ID be I'IIiIl* _ it p1IIliIelI .....
wannlies d Ill)' tnI.
OIl>er
CUl1'8ntlillb.

~ 74.3 ~ 99.5

~i~%~~;

1. ::: ~.~
:=
1.

l:

""/01

rn,....

li'85'

TlI[ PlBUSl-t:R IS NOf RSPoNSI8LflORIK'r


drMJ lit ~
*"d Q" I1rI5ITiIed " .,.

EllRORS OR DMlSSlotCSHfR ... ThI5 ~lStri::Iy


rJ dhlr 101m. rJ used b ~

prned. *Cftr'ic

rJ

lw.maDr's ~.IIOIKO"'ciII.
II'lJ piRIBI 0" *lJO"ic ~

nwIidIIg

IIse. Nop.t
rJ p1ldIa..

scnia:

'.

: II:

II-

FLORIDA ROCK INDS. NYSEFRKI Ir

ECENT
P~CE

lIIElMSS
WID

3 """"'.",.
3 "',., ..
3""' ......

ITCHNICAl
IETA .m O.llO-MMd)
1OIlU5 PROJE<:TlONS
Price

85
55

.::::-.,

GIIn

High:
Low'

20.'
14.9

16.~
8.2

LEGENDS
1.0
fIlM"'
. ...
R~Priee~
Zb-1!p1.
11/91

c....

~'"

IrU ~

14.6
9.1

14.3

15.3

'0.3

11.6

(il""1!
+50'%

100
0 0 2 000
0 0 0 , 000
0
000
0 1 0 0 0 0
InstitutioMI Decisions

..,... ",.
....

:::'1 ~
42

0623

'.

1Q2.',.
'3
894'

'1,"1.

'--.:~.I ".1'

'.

I'

--. --.--

19.4

45.'
27.'

1.4%

llD
28.0

- --

....

'00
BO

..

- - - --

- -'

"

....
--

TarvetPric. Ran~
2003
200.

43.3

32

24

20
18

...

''''

32

3.7
75 ..4

23-.
.9.8
121-'

30 .

41.6

.....

"

12

--

.....

'-'

9.'"

'5
85.3
25.'
5.3
----;00:0

"

11."111'''".,11,,,,,

.... . ....

90.'
31.5

'2
129.4

lW~'~

1992

lW3 199.
1.u8 15.52 17.7.4
U6
1.10
US
21
.33
.91

2S

2S

25

I.'"

1.73
9.04
1 .7
38.1

122
10.12
.7
15.'
1.01
lA\

9.16

.MF
.MF

21\
27U
.2.2\
26.7
39
10.6"

-- 1.4,

,.

11"

3.'

P.~nl

.".rea

..

192
39.4
166J
2.5\
23\
.MF

119\

22
20\
294,4
12.9\
262
~O
36.'%
20\
21.0
439
171.6
33\
3J\
.B\
76\

19.45
266
126
25
212
11.13
1
11.1
.74
l.B\

336.

369.0
17.8"
26.
25.4
17.2
23.9
32.6\ 34.3\
5.1\
6J\
21.1
26.'
23.1
9.7
192.1 2112
8.4\
11.1'4
11.31
9.0\
9.1%
6>\
26\
lO'Io

.~'"

2U9
3.01
'-'3
2.
2'2
1Z.10
92
"'ll
1.91'0
396.7
1T9\

28.8
27.0
34.3\
6.8"
352
16J
22B.'
11.2"
11.81
9>\
17\

2'.33
3.61
1.98
25

2.<9
14.09
lB.76
91
.53
1.4%
466.B
19.0"
30.7
37.1
34.'10
B.1\
<9.
10.9
~.6
14\
12.3%
12'4

BUSWESS: Florida Rock InduA'ies, Inc. manuflCilJrBs really-mDl


cona.te, CDncnne bIDet, .nd ohr conavte products (65% d
18M) and produces c:onstucti:ln
az,ngem (35%). Opemes
Iinesb1e 8nd gran .. qumBs, ancl san:l .m base melt pBnts.
Principlll natetI In .. Fbil:Ia, GeoIgiI, Vrgl1i:i1, and Maryland.
ReIiMtrtiII cmstuetbn 8Q:ZXIl'If:s b" 32" d saI8r. Acquiwf

,.,

26.10
3.83
20Z
:IS
S.OS
15-90

~.11

16.67

1607

2'2
.25
S.'"
17.93

13.3
.69
.9\

13.'

'9Z..I

579~
'6.9\
385
46.6
35.2'4
B.O\
14.9
97.0
336.3
10..8%
13.B\
12.4%
10\

18.'"
33.'
389
35.2"
7"
25A
23.9
29!U
12.1"
13.0%

13.6"

34.'
31.8
10.8
35 .
362
25.2
302
102.5 Florida Rock Industries likely posted
14.8 1Of.6
a considerable share-earninp
adPdt Est'd'l7.'fi vance in fiscal 2000 (ended September
Pnt
Un.

0Ih0<

..

15.1

315

lta'nior!

..

11.4"

12'4

.79
.71;

s.1I

UII
.43

~IID
",...

I".
3".

.".

15.4
252

US
1JIl EIOIkIp poIII"

.so

...

per"

Dlv'dl DIcI'd

R*U.PIERdo
Avg Ann' Dtv'd YIIkI
7.
M.$ll

..... .....

0Dnina ...

..

'-'"

W5
&15
~1I

.so

,;::
&3
"'.1
.IS
,7%

11.""

~(

S!II
15.11 Not PIoIf fWD
3U\ JS./lll InccnI Tu RIll
25.1
W

OU5

I.
-~,
...
'IMn~~_

12\

IA%

CI!

Cop~:!.""*'Il pO"
B"'*_potlt
1

u.s

6SS

,..,

2002

e YAUJfU1E M,M:.
SlMpwlh Ii.
"CIIh _
potit

2001

'US

ZIlIl7'

---... ". -

.......
...

'I. Tot RTlIlIf ..

Not ..........

4111 W_1l Cop'!lnfl)


IlU longT ... IlIIII iWl
JIS
SIl<
(
lZ....
.... Copl
'Z.$ll _lIIT
1~'" 14.$ll Rnn ell SIr. Eauilv
12.'" 1= RIIIIned k) COllI Eq
14\ 15% A1J DWellb NIl Pruf

S5.D
1.
JS.K
lU%
1411
711
lIS
'15%
lu.l
'15%

.'"

Arundel Corp., 1188. 1999 deprecill:iDn rIlIl: S.,%. Has Ilbo1A 2,800
8II1pOyees, 1,130 shlllllhoidas.
Blkarlamly
owns IlboLlt 28.6" 01
met; ether Offs. & Di's., 7.3",= Re,t8 AssocinII, Inc. and R ..
Mp.. Co., 6.2'1. (1m9 Pr1:rq'). Clftnn.: EdWIId L B8IIIr. PI8I.,
and CEO: John D. Baw IL 1~
FL ~
156 Eat
21st Sl, JacbotrriIt, Fl322Ol1. T8IepIIone: 904-355-1731.

several months to ramp up to its full annual capadty of 750.000 tons. Although
ANNUAL RATES
half of that figure is slated for intra~""(PW")
30th). The combination of very strong company sales to the concrete segment,
SaJos
3.0%
11.0%
12.0'"
demand for constn.1ction rnater1als com- the additional outside sales should realize
"Cash FJow"
12.5%
4.0%
16.5%
5.0,,"
15.5"
"""gs
345"
bined with funited contributions from tts wider margins than Florida Rock's other
12.~
DiYi:lends
-cement facility (see below) should re- business units. Also, despite recent price
B.O%
'4.ss new
suIt in the second consecutive year of declines for this product, we are optimistic
Ful
QlJARTERLY
SAW!''''''
sharen~t grow1h
Y.,
In the
high teens. about cement pricing go~
forward beE_ Dec:..11 ""'.31 JUrI.3D Sip" F1~1
Y.,
Healthy sales of constn..letJon aggregates
cause of TEA-21 (th~ Feral
Highway
1997 106.'
456.8 and ready-mix concrete led to both top--llne Spending Act). TIle legislation put In place
tOl.6 123.9 12'.9
1991 111.6 107.7 132,0 141.2
.925
and operatlng-rnargln
improvements in spendIng tnaeases of 4096-5096 (or the con1199 143.1 134.1 152.3 149.8
579.3
ftscal 2000. Indeed. thanks to good prldng
struction of roads and bridges nationwide.
155.1 151.6 170.9 Inl
IS!
In the ready-mix market, Flortda Rock
And though the bill was passed more than
2OIl1 ITS
74/J
lIS
2IlIl
2IlIl
widened Its margins by more than 100 two years ago. the dollars began hitting
EARNlftGS
PERSHAREA e
Fu'
basis points. Finally, modest share repurYou
the market thJs summer. with greater ImE_
Dtc.31 Mar.31 Jun.3D SIP-3D Y.,
chases over the ooW"SC'
of the year likely pacts likely In the years ahead. Contrfbu1997
1.98
.44
.35
.65
.54
added a few pennles to the bottom line. tions from the new facUlty should thus be
1191
.60
202
.36
.36
.66
The one signlficant offset to the company's
augmented by rising cement prices In fls1199
.52
.68
242
.SO
.72
JQ
2.10 good earnings perfonnance this year was a cal 200 I and out 3 to 5 years.
.63
.44
.93
marked increase in interest expense asso- These shares offer good longtena
2OIl1
.711
.ss 1.111 M UIl elated
wJth the completion of [he cement total-return
potential. Industry rundaQMlBIlS
PM!
c
CaJ.
Fu'
plant. Nevertheless, earnings will proba- mentals and the company's presence in the
Ilr.31 Jun.30 Stp.3ll Doc-31 You
bly come In 16% higher, to $2.80.
cement market point to solid earnings
1996
25 Contributions
. 25 -. 25
from the NewberTy.
199T
2S Florida cement facility augur wen for gains over that span. Plus. the board
.125
.125
recently increased the dividend. payout
1191
25
.125
.125
25%, giving the Issue a moderate yield.
1199
.35 fiscal 2001 ~rofits. The new plant came
.125 -.125
.10
on line ear y in fiscal 2000, but took Adam M. \Mire
October 13. 2(){)(J
2IlIIlI
.10
.10
. 25
. 0
Cum.nt lJab.

,.Yrt.

"""'v....

""''IB

'Ll'"

"""'

."""

.....,

30.0

P~

1989
lWO 1991
1987
1988
1984 1985 1986
22.B2 21.19
16.05
13.13
15.00 '3.96
14.98
2221
25B
1.75
292
29Z
1.98
H2
21.
Z21
1.03
1.51
127
93
.11
1.31
122
1.16
2S
2S
.13
.25
2S
.1B
23
2S
2.53
1.76
W
1.33
1.71
95
W
'26
B.66
9.34
7.65
920
.A7
7m
6.32
5.4'
16.43
16.1.
. 7
B.
16."
B.B
6.7
72
102
11.-4
13.'
-- NMF
1.01
.73
MF
.62
.69
.76
"'ll
1.9\
1.5%
22\
1.8\
19\ I.B\
1.9"
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as ot!l3MlO
390J
295.7
rotl'IDltbt $1852 mil'. Due .... .5 y,. $,fD.Omii.
159\
'20\
302
30.'
LTlrrternt $10.0 mIL
LTDebt$153.4ml.
17.1
2.0
(7% atCop'Q
31.8"
Leases, UnCllpttallHd: AI1nuall1lntabi $4.4 mil
4.4,
.7\
Plnsion Ul.blllty None
22.6
149
41.7
4U
PfdStocliNOIMl
112.1
169.5
1.9%
CotnmOII Stodl18,554.459
SM . (93" r:I cap'~
IS dBillDO
9.9\
12%
IIARKET CAP: $&7S million ISmail Cap)
73\
.MF
CURRENT POSrrlJN
&I3GIOO
271;
.MF

Current AsSIIIs
N:m Payable
DetJ(o..e

16.9
11.6

''','1,
... 1 .

:Oil.)

15.00
13.1

1M)

IIIIII

24li
11

IIIDJF.A_JJ

Ca .-.Receivllbles
~ntory (lIFO)

17.3
11.9

Ann'RftImTabII

Inskter Detlslona

W."NIF
Pol;RAIIl 089

37 PIRATIO 12 4(',.nII1l)I~JM

----

----

('/."""'---~~lr--"""'''''-{CI-l~,"m._""_,,,,_
..

urnilgs 1tnJugh '97, dilut8d


..
""ngs from divenld opIQtion: 86, 7. Em.
nome. iems: "8B, 8;; '93, 10; '00-10, 51.
CI m:llI, VRle l.iIe
.
Int. AI
rt5el"ftIIII.

PlIIIJSl-R
IS ~~R

1lIF
II l ..,

tr rtpaIIInG. ..

NfY

d~idIInd ~
lbout Dec. 5th. Goes 1lI-div.
Stoekhokll!n l"1IC8MKI one stllrepitr:l Flc:rida~~ StDcll.. rice Sbblllty
_bout Dee.. 15th..AppmxilBte dMdend PiI)'" Rock & llnll. Lines ~NDQ: FRKT.V) for BlIch Prb Growth Pel"lideftc:e
ment dIles: Jan. 1, AlS. 1. JuL 1,and Oct. 1.
5harB d FRK stoct, 11SJ86.
!amlJ'IpI P~
flc1uII '"*iid a aI:Qintd frmIr. 5lIUIte. ~
10 tit NIiItR ... a
. .... ......" II
UIcI.

E.RRORS
OR ()I,ISSIONS HtRE".
TIIi5

u DrsTetd 11.". .....

deaIn:

u dlB _

II l5II:I

is

G'd711:1r ~

1m 9mtn1i-t II ~

:=~

m, pdM IIlI" dednrir: pIIbbliI:a.

ilBnllIr5e~
pIIt
stnite II pl:lI1El

I "

70
55
55
:

II:

I I

I~

GREAT ATL. & PAC. NYSEGAP

5 l~edmlOO
3 Nl!W1I21!O
5 .... _

l1IIEUIESS
SAFTY
TECHNiCAl

Low:
.. _ R~

G*I

'--

Relum

f'r;;l!

....
.",.

II .-

35'~+150%
:2~J 2""
38"
l": 25
..,.,,.

.'" 13::
:::.

,_

,,,

..

iIltta5

1331.

22.5

27.4
17.4

28.9
17.6

36.B
19.5

36.0

174,37

1911ll
205.81

r-.-. hi I",." I "I,"

. ...
".

."

..

..

.....

IPw"')

Sales
''ClISt1 Flow"

ElUIlilgs
DMdend!l
BookVeJue

A'"
.-=..

-...

1997
11111
1199

....
.....
...,2
.......

Pu' Est'd'Sl7 ..

"

1"11.

...
-. -0.5%
0.5%
'5%
-65% 59.""
-35% -12.0%

.,.5"

-1.0%

lllL\RTfRLYSAW

IIIIIIIlA

unJler SeD.Per NoY.Per FebPer

3105
3D78

2335
2330

2993

2262

2318
2344
2319
241if1
255Il

2504
2417
2419
2m
2B5D

3.5"

....0"
4.0"

1.5"
1.5"

~~
10262
10179
9993
1_

..

.'

."

"'"

--

latest (September) quarter has heightened


concerns regarding the company"s prospeets in the coming yean. A&P lost SO.14
a share during the period, despite decent
comparable-store sales gains (1.4% In the
U.S., and 3.4% In Canada). Its Project
Creat Renewal. now in Phase n, has
reduced share net by $0.52 thus far In fisca! 2000 (ends February, 2001), with add!
tiona! hefty charges
be taken through
the remainder of the flscal year. We are
Including these charges in our earnings esUrnates. since they involve lmprovtng supply chain and business. processes in ongoing operations .
The prospect of perslstinJ
weakness
at A&P has caused us to ash our estimates. For fiscal 2000. we are now looking for the company to lose SO.75 a share
(Instead of eamlng SO.50); our fiscal 2001
estimate. which lac.ks clarity at present.
has been reduced to SO.90 a share. from a
prior $2.00 call. Several factors are at hlay
here. Gross margins have remained
at.
whUe SG&A oos15are rising. Competition
has intef151Bed1n all of A&P's markets
(i.e.. one rompetitoc has introduced triple

'0

=.,

A.

1m

~nrg~.

.,;.

-=..
-

20

3)T".
5)'1'.

...
~.:
:;;;

::

10179 9993 'Df25


31.0% 31.2% 31.'"
2.8~
L71i
4.4'
839
700
755
513
14.0 dJD.O
23.3% 410\
.50~ .141
8U
98.3
844.3 983.8
l2tIG
831.3 8462
6.31
5.1'
1-""
HMF
6.1~
8.1'
43~ '-'"
30'11
21~

""
.....

-64.5

14.8
3D.O

-66.0
..(1.5

104.8

cVALUHJjfI'll8.fjC.

SIIn,.sh "
'CuIl_p ...."
ElninQ'" llh II
Dh'dl Ded'd .... sh e
8ooIl: \IaIu. per Ih
Coramon 5h1 Outs\'11 U
AYg Ann' PiE Rdo
R*tiYl PrERdo
A"II Ann'l [h'd Y.-Id

1105/1 s.lel/WI A
31.!l' ..... 1"11'"
O'*""I
M.
7&5 NInber 01 Slam
3>.Q Not PIoI1(lnoII)
Q.DS klcaNTuRD

1'"

,.,,,! .""

...

.....--. ;:--

'4 TOt. RETU1U11M1O

2001
1998
1999 2000
266.84 260.43 117.05 ZlU5
7.19
175
7.70
7."
~75
1.34
1.93
.10
.40
.40
AD
AD
21.B7
22.05 2U~ 21AS
38.37 JUS 38.J5
3829
16.0
~
21.8
1.13
.91
1.4% 1'%

03-45

m...
1D.
2.10
M

2511
38.35
I~Q

.J5
14

1_

32.'"
US

815
'~O

42.'"

.""'
....""
,
~~-.::-.~
..'"
~'"
~'"
c...ElI
~'"
"S
Nll.l'Rltt II

'lID -I
1380
U/I Sin.

Cop'

I""'"

$llil

If.S

R_"'T .....:~
RIIum on Shr. E .

8.R

R_ ..

7.#%

AI DiY'1istel Nit PrvI'

""'

eign (Canadian) sales: 19% of toIaL 1999 depr. me: 8.0%; plant
age: 4.5 YR. Has Bboul.8,IlOOstocld1ollSEn, 80,900 amps. (88%unD1 mwm., 69% pII). Tengemann Glt)lJp conIroIs 55% allXlmmora; OIfan & di-eebs, 4.3% (5IQO pmry). Chai'.: J-mtS Wood;
PIes. and CEO: Cllnstian Haub. Inc.: MD. Addr.: 2 Paragon Dr.,
NonIYae, NJ 07645. T.L: 201513-9700. Web: www.apteumn.

couponing. and another has lawu:hed 8


loyalty card). The troubllng aspect behind
A&P's struggles is that they are coming
despite limited exposw-e to Wal-Mart.
Senior
management
turnover
has
been excessive in recent months. The
company's COO left: in Jull~its chief merchandising officer departe
in August. and
the pcesJdent of one of Its operating reglons and the CEO of another region
resigned in October. To make matters
worse for A&P. in at least one case the
salary of the outgoing executive is being
pald through the early part of 2002. To be
sure, the rapid pace of turnover does not
augur well Cor the company.
A&P shares are lowest-rank~
both
on a Technical and TImeliness basis .
TIl1s difflcult-to-altaIn designation points
out the company's recent struggles, both In
tenns of stock-price performance and with
bOHom-line results. Ongoing charges relatcd to Project Great Renewal are cloudIng earnings vislbUlty, and gtve us little
confidence in our 3- to 5-year projections .
As such. It seems most prudent to steer
clear of this stock for the time being.
Brian L. Bugbee
November 10. 2000

3200
2440
11050
JJIlIJ
255Il
EARHIfGS PER SKARE
~
, . ",; S<j,:Per Nov...... "...p"
1997
.60
.35
1.66
.42
.29
.19
1.34
11111
.50
.35
.3D
.51
1.93
1995
.50
.45
.47
d.75
.15
d.14
d."
.90
2011
.15
.2Il
.zs .lIJ
lllL\RTfRLI ONllENl5 PAIDC
Full
Cal
y",
anur
1&<3\ Ju.. 30 SIp.30 Doc.3t
.20
1996
.05
.OS
.05
.05
.35
1917
.DS
.10
.10
.10
1998
.10
.10
.10
.10
AD
1!l1t
.10
.1.
.10
.10
AD
.10
.10
.10
.10
1:11ASCII!r- end!llat Saturda,. in Feb. of
hsc. gains (Ic.aes): '84, $4.71;"85, SO.as;"86,
mtg. abt. Jan. 121t1.Goes u aboul. Jan. 19th.
I:lwing calelllJiW)'8IilI'.Intenn tMnJds n 16, 10.68; '90, $0.20; "92, ($5.831;'94, ($U9);"95,
Div'd pml: about the 1st 01 Fe:b., Ma,., Aug.,
'1, 'z. ana: 12 weeb. (':/::011
avg. sits. $0.17; '91, ($0.011; '98, ($2.56); '99, (l1.56).
Hc7t. (0) In mil. (EJ Does nol KUje franctlisIB
out. through '96, dilutad
. Em. nonNBXI egs. rpl due ear1J Jan. (C) Nul div'd
nns.
&I 1*, ~
Ule
r~ l1IIt!rIIl is IIIOtaieII tJan !11:11111:15 tl*WIlf fa tie I'IIIiItlIe ... f5 jRIri:IM MfaIl .....-.lis d ~ bfa".
lHPl8J~RISJI)lRE
ORItll'ttRROR:SORCNSSKINSHER.It.TIB....
is
.
lDr~s-'_LQ
:::iaL"'IlfIIIIlQe.
D~
d l.,. ~..-.
...
u ~
i1.., IIIJ*d. ___
u ur. bllL a: ~
b
. ar
.
.
ar ~
'. SInice ar
2001

2<

. .....

iiiiii
,_

""10

50
32

"
12

13121

,'''

::=:::: 1yr.

II.

..'"

- -- - -- - --

2005

I.
'.

1988
1987
249.88 263.56
7.28
6.48
3.34
2.11
.48
58
22.32 25 ..42
38.14 38.20
12.5
1.04
.90
1.3~ 1.'~

Put

2003 2004

.'

..

ANNUAL RATES

B.B

'I,

..

....
..

Target Price Range

29,1

'I",

..

..'"

37.7
24.5

"

".

.,~

..

21.9

"

1989
1990
1991 1992
1993 1994
1995
1996
1997
291.81 298.0' 303.31 2R71 271.69 270.33 264.29 263.7B 26827
9.19
7.73
5.75
8.85
7.23
7.94
7.79
828
3.60
8."
'.53
3.84
3.95
1.85
d.24
.10
.50
1.33
101
1.68
1.03
1.48
1.82
.. .10
.40
.88
.78
.60
.80
.80
.65
.2ll
.2ll
.40
2059 31.95 32.79 V.06 26.11> 2IJ:n 2153 lJ27
17.63 19.8.5
15.48
2'.22
38.2ll 38.22 38.22 38.22 38.22 38.22 38.22 38.25 38'"
31.61 37J4
38.07
.. HMF 45.5 18.1 16.1 17.
14.9
l]A
12.T
20.8
15.1
12.0
.. NMF 2.98 121 1.01
1.13
1.33
.98
1.41
J4
!7
.91
12~
2.9~
.6~
1.4~
1.6~
1.6~ 2.1% 2.9~
2.9'1'
.8~
11391 11591 10499 10384 10332 10101
10262
CAPffALSTRUCTUREasafWIUO
Total Dl:bt $1074.2 mil. Due In 5 Yrs $415.0n1l1.
31.3% 312~ 3O.9~
29.4" 29.7% 30.6~ 30.8% 30n
LT Debt$1055.5ml.
LT 1rrtem1 $83.0 mA
2.6~
2~
.O~ 3.8~
3.'"
3.""
3.'"
1215 127'
1193
1108
101.
m 938
122'
Ind. $11-42mil taplaized Ieasa
151.0
10.7
4.0
18!
73.0
119.3
50.7
63.'
(56%oICap~
(Total mnst CO'f .... ge: NMF)
.. 39.6~
.. 37.5\ V." 23.3~
42.5" 410\
Le.. es, UnQpitllllDd Annual ",ntills $211.6 rriI.
1.33~
HOF .04~ .181
.50~ .72'11
.'1~
.'2'11
116.3 113.9
56.8
792
972
1783
262.1
215.'
Panslon Liability None
153.4 692.1 5....
101.3 158.9
780.1
839.5 816.3
12213 1253.1 10343
822.8 890.1 926.'
'-' n4!
PId Stock None
5.6% 1.1'" 2.1~
3.6% 04.7% 5.8'
9.5'"
'.7~
Comrron stock 38,341216 Ihs.
("%oICapl)
12.4~
NOF
6.2~
6.9~
82~
'.6~
2."
MARKET CAP: $375 milOon (Sm.1I Cap)
32~
HMF
NMF S.2'II
7.3% 521<
CURRENT POSrnON
'''B
HOF
NlF
1S~
10~
2O~ 43~
NMF
2'~
J"IMLLI
Co ........
136.6
124.fS
BUSINSS: The Great Allanti: & PoIcf"1: Tel Co., Inc:. (A&P) oper191.0
Receiv'lIbies
227.1
204.7
st. ab\. 750 stRs il 16 sifts, the Di5t. of Columbia, & Ontlnl,
801.0
Irrve1ltoly (Avu Cst)
841.0
791.2
00..
80.0
77.. Canada. Avg. sbn s~: 40,000 sq. L Sibres operat unc:lw A&P,
"5
Food
'nhI's, Dtmnion Staas,
Current A&sets
1224.0 1222-" 1166.3 Sav-A-e:.-,
Enp:Iri"tm, ~
.. , FMfDIi( ..bel, ~
Fcxx*7a't, l!IndDo583.1
Acds Payable
557.3
18.7 mncn banrMln. Alto _!'f9S 62: Food Basics hnchile stores. F""
Debt Due
16.4
13.7
Other
560.' -Em
Cuflltnt Liab.
1134.1 1124.6 1133.8 A&P is having a tough go of it. The
1985

1984
156.06
VB

34.'

23.1

r~ssGJ

p.reerd '.0
5' .INIr ......
~
58 tradMI
2.0

81
78

35.0

21.5

SGmglIl

Inskier Deci.ton.
DJF.A_JJA
00241
0 0 3 4
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000000000
h,.ttlution.1 Decisions

.'"
....

35,3

255

3.5 l lI:.~ r~Dp ~

PROJE~N?
Ann' TGtII

Price

57.6

LEGENDS

BETA .15 (lJlll-t.b,,,,_)

200~5

61.6
37.8

tiS.4
44.3

High:

IIMl
1
1Ied;."I!Jla.r )I~IM
Pf RATIONMF YI/l
4.0%
10 PRATll NMF(tlliin

cClftlpa~

Flnancilll8trwngl!l

SkIc:k"s lita 5tabllilJ


Price Growttl PlIrstRlnce
&11111
.. PNdictabilty
,

'""

'II:

B
60
10
25
11-.

GTECH HLDGS CORP NYSEGTK


SAFElY

5 ltW!led 11I2WO
3 ....._

TECHNICAL

4_~1""

TIIEUllESS

r:t

LEGENDS
UJ I

. . .

{f;1'SIr

'='"

2Of3.65 PROJE<~H,S
AM' Tutal
Price
Gain
Rnwn
50
31"

Hi!lh;

low:

-.
..s...,

45
26 .

3B.9
15.1

37.4

24.3

Nil

0IVll
YLD

2 .2

40.7
21.6

19.4

23.5

Tafgllt Price Range

15.4

2003

....
eo

- --

rrui;n

,I"

,I

"
,,'

./

DJf."IIJ.I"

,1'1'11111-11111

--

11,11,. - - --

, ,

- -- --

40

32
24

'""

./

00000
000 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional Declsiona
t".. .".,
P.rc-nt 18.0
58 sh.re. 12..0
45
50
'.0
~
2I.l9~ 28174
30360

........

.....

12

.. . ..
'.-,"

.....

,.

200. 200S
100

1~

.., ......"

33.5

30.8
18.1

fbfOp III

(~:~5~1

30
+75%
Insider Decision.

45.0
17.'

RdIlive hn Shnga.
.u ~s

.85 ('l!lll-IQ/tI!l)

BED

IIedi."'IIF7'~~r'TM
PRATIO.058
17 PRAOO 8, 3 (T"ing:

!FCENT
PRICE

".

....
.....

,. TOT. RETURIlI

..

....

'

......
..,.
111M1
14.8
".0

-1"-2

1".

'5",".

-29.5

104.8

~
~
f-

1999 2000 2001 ' g VALUE UIIf PIll. fiC. OUl


1995 Mit9S
GTECH Holdings was pubNcIy launched 1990 1991 1992 1993 ~
4D.75
on July 29, 1992 with Ih. sa'. of 5.9 mil""
7.88 '.66 11.73 14>9 t6.07 11.30 2128 23.99 25.13 29.05 29.55 3'''' RftIIlUII JIll' Ih A
Cuh_,.oh
f1jl
4,63 5.89 7.09 7.68 8.02
7A11
shares 01 oommon slDd< at $17.00 a share.
1.03 1.66 W
3.56 3.92
Th. deal was und.rwrill.n by a syndicale or
d.12
.38
239
2.58 us
Z.25 Eamingspwlh ....
.S2 1.29 121
1>4
1.81
209
11'
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Donaldson, l.ufkjn & Jenrett.,
L.hman
If!
MI Dtv'c11 Dld'd fill' Ih
III
oh
3,04 4,12 3.42
4,52 4.81
3.60\ 3.10
U8 CIp"
~75
Brolhe15, and Morgan Stanley & Co. Th.
1.03 2.52
7.37
1'"
.32
.85
3.93 5.36 5.39 6SO 8,43 8,36
7.33 8,50 1410
20.75
proceeds were used 10 retire debt and
'2111 Book Ya!uI per III C
=w
pref.rred stock assoaated with DU Capital ... .55
'LIJ ...... 4.,. 'IJ.Ul 437. 25. 18.' 11,1 16. 151 '21
Corporation's February '990 leverage buy N...
N~t
7.8
A,vgNln'P
13.0
.. NMF 2.29 1.52 112 1.14 1.06 .88 .63 ,45 ~
R*tJy. PIERdo
.J5
out of GTECH Corporation.

'25

..

Spondln,,.

...,.

CAPrr.u STRUCTURE
Total Debt $331.0 mill.
lTDebt$331.0mill.
(Total merest covenge:
L.....

as of III2&IDO
On In 5 V,. $150.0ml.
IT lIurm S23.0mill
3.8J:)
153" of CaO'Q

, UncapiblritedAnnuall&nlals

$2:5.9rril.

Penston UebllltJ None

..

..

..

Common Sloc" 34.596,033 shs.

u"'_

(47% 01 Clip')

...

MARKET CAP: $575 million (SrllIII C.p)


CURRENTposrrlON

9:'1.1.)

7.7

Co
Assets
Rec:eivabln
Inventory (FIFO)

106.7
61.9

50.2

00"
Assets
Acds Payable
DeblDue
0Ihe<
CUmmlliab.

226.5
43.4

CUlTBnt.

2.0

177.4

222.11

,ao. "'....

11.1
125.5
67.4

35.2
239.2
53.1

.1

157.7
210.9

10.0
115.1

73.0

35.'

.......

234.0

532.3

572.7

..

..

..

..

..

.-

1723 350.1 50U 632.9 695.1 744.1 900


29.1\ 28,'" 29.9' 320'
33.1' 33.'" 33.'\
39,6 46.3 68.0 98,1 11U 132.6 172.6
18.5
m S61 55.4 66.6 n.a
HMF 39,0'lIo 18.2' 41.5\ 43.3\ 42.0" 41.0'
8.6\
.0'lIo
5.3"4
8,0'
9,0'
7S' 8,9'

1D1D.S

36.'"

31.0"

199.3

185.4

98.0

93,6

71.

204'

87.6

40.0'lIo
'3'

39.0'
89'4
27.4

41.0"
10.'"

358.1
11.9%

"',s
3451

319.1
283.'

12.91

18.51

16.s"

21."

25,4'

34S'

31.5"

21.7"

~.4'1i

34.5""

31.5%

BUSINESS: GTECH Holdings ~


is h wort!"s IIargest
supplisr of alfIlPutllfized orHiJe lDt&y ~uc:ts and lllI'Yices. It
has opeR1ing CIJflDcb wlh 28 of tile 38 kJtIeIY aul:hon1i1s iI the
Unillld St;rles line! 54 rJf the 94 intBmillionallonrilrillS
(mo ARl. In
1999, menu, consistad d bng-tenn IIllIViat M:l operatllg conb3cts (85") .nd product salel (15"). Disposed d TransactMl

ems}:

d~1.7 47.5
15J
215,1 259.0
2027
33.9 58.1 168.1 232.3
12.3" 11.91 12.71.
6.7"

,1'

31."

NPoI' 45.'%
NIF

25'

22"
20.9'4

2'1'
2421

"

..

6,1

11,4

3U

338S 382.9
232' 296.7

3825

11.61

""" 22"
22"

23.B'
23"'

..

..

..

.d-

990.6 972.9
36,6'
351'

..

7,1
216.04

PM StlKk None

..

..

3.7

29.3

349.4

296,5

..

..

'1110

lID

3f.0%
7""

J5.'
325
36l

'18"

1O.5lI
10.5%
/1/

--

::.

.......

Ay; Ann' DiY'dYilld

'Olll RMrlUlI (W,


32.5l1 O...-M ....
100

...t".)

O_d

79.' N<I""'II'''''

00,0% kJl:a... Tu RII.


7.5% Not ""'II Millin

15..

w_,

Cop" (_

3IlO Lon,T ... 1lob1 ~


m Shr.
'31% Rn.n on ToWC..,"

'1.5lI R_

.......

E....

11.5l1 RmlMdtoClIIIIEq
NIl AM Dtt'n ICl Net Prvf

Hi

1325
34.0%
2fIJ
1M
",0%
7.1l1

..

DO
175

'f5.5l1
2.'"

'''"
Nt

AmToIe (2135). 1999 depreciiltDn late: 15.'% .. Com;Jany


hils llboul: 4,BOO employees. and 2,200 mckhokSen. orran
&
t1ndDrs own 3"; B..-dollYS 11.3"; Tiger Mngnt. 9.5%; ESl P.-i1IIln, 7.n. (prmy MMJ). Chaman: W. Bruce Turner. Inr:. ... Delaw.e. Addr8ss: 55 Technology Way, west Grwenwich, RI 02817.
Telephone: 40'-3921000.
IntameI: www.gtech.CDm.

GTECH has been going through some


pound effects of lower product sales and
rough times lately. In July, the company domestic lottery-service revenues more
announced the resignation of both its than offset an improved international top
.. 14.5% &0"
RevenUllS
chairman and Its president. At the time It line. Margins were also squeezed by cost
''Cash FlaW"
-_.- 22.""
7.0"
EBrni1g~
19.5%
4.5"
was said that the board was dissatisfied ovenuns in Australla and Israel. We do
..
-Hi
Dnridends
with the performance of Its stock price . expect some relief going forward, though
Book Value
-- 19.0% 17.0"
Later, It was revealed. the chairman had GTECH has also done a vaJue assessQUARTaLYRE'/EIIUES{IIIIIJ'
concealed a sol'tware gUtch that was un- ment of Its businesses. The company
lblr P,,"'ua.P~,Noy.", F,b.P.,
deflJaytng winners in Britain's National took over 545 million In one-time charges
'997 245.2 226.6 264.8 253.8 990.6 Lo~. 11le glitch was secretly fixed, but to streamline the company. A3 a result of
231.3 133.5 251.7 255,4 972.. inl
Y g.revented GTECH's customer, this effort, the workforce has been reduced
1199 13&7 255.4 1.... 5 2Ol.1 1010.8 Camelot, om being considered Looperate by about 4%, two offices have been closed
185.4 102f1
2000 242.0 227.6 ZI5
and consolidated, consulting agreements
lottery. The United Kingdom National
ZlilJ
m m lD1ll the
255
200'
Lottery Commission (NLC) had announced were tennlnated.
the corporate aircraft
EARNlIGS PER SHARf
~ that it would only continue negotiations was sold, and R&D spending Is befng
~
rj P,r Aua.P'r Nov.PI, FebP,r
ratlonallzed. Management expects savings
with Camelofs comcr-titor, The People's
1997
.06
.48
.57
.56
2.09 Lottery. The NL
specifically cited from this plan to be about $25 milllon per
2.3. GTEeKs cover-up of the software problem year, beginning in fiscal 2002.
1fiB
.53
.64
.71
.45
,85
,50
2.56
1199
.56
.65
the reason for Camelot's exclusion. Although ranked to trail the market
2000
.56
.18
.53
.71 2.15 as
2001
.60
.1Il
U5 Camelot contested the ruUng In court, and in the year ahead, GTECH shares of.50
won the chance to negotiate as well. A de- fer
good
long-tena
c:srreciation
QUARTaLYDNIlBllSPAil
Full
e.l
potential.
But there are s
many unclsion Is expected by mid-December.
end., lIu.31 Jun.30 StD.30 Dtc.31
A... a result of this problem. and wcak- certainties. and we advise Investors to
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
1M
ness in the companys core business,
wait this one out. We would like to see
B8NG PAlD
'197
results for the second quarter were proof of cost savings and a reacceleratlon
'991
disappointing.
As GTK had prean of top-line growth before recommending
'199
nounced, revenue and eantings came in this stock.
2000
well below last year's Rgures. The com- Daniel Davidowitz
Nuvember 24. 2000
/::1 Fis:aI 'tal ends on the at 5BtIdIy i'I ~, 23;; Q2'OO, 79. ExcUies losses tom dis- (el lndlldes iTtitngoes. In 1999, $130.7 d- CCIIlpan,.. Flnallcllli Sbwrgtll
ANNUAl

RATES

d_lp ....
")

Pat

!lYIS.

Past

"...

...

Esfd'l7.'1!i

~".

.s;.

E
'191

It.

.......

...

,-

..

,,

twuary aI the 1DIowing l'Ml'". (SJ ...wnge continued OpillGltixl5: '94, $1.15; 'i7, $1.44. lion, $3.84/5h.e.
eamilgs Ihrnugh "97, "luted thBreafIBr. Ex- NexI..-nilgs report due _ 0e0M'nber.
eludes IKImICdring mses: ~ 39; "94, 10;
CI ZlDl, YlIU
Tll PUBUSKR
ell n., lit ~

lDr ~
IS NQT RE
...

CII~

AI ~
n5f'IIII. fMMl ......
ii aliIired Inlnl 5Nt:e5 ~
SIll.[
OR NfY ERRORS OR ONIS!iIONS H[RUt. '"-sfllllllllion
.. ~ fB*d. *dtri:: CIId/B Iaml. C111ZMl1
b""""

10 lie rIIiIl:IIe ..
ii.-il::ly lrK!IlbmitWs
II' ~

..,.

iJ,

piIIMd

(OJ

In

Stock's Pric. StatKity


PrIcI Grvwth PlirslstenQ
Eamlnp PNdldabllitJ

mIlons.

pwidtd .....

IfIfJWIIie5 d

-ra ....

I3IMI.llml co
II' I!IIIidIaic pdcIlIiaII.

1I51!~

-.ice

II'

U'llL
~

paU;l

55

5
90

GAYLORD ENTMT. NYSE-GET


TllEUNUiS
WEll
TECHNICAL

5 LrMe'ellllnQV)
3 .....'1M]
4 _~"""

I~ECENT
PRICE

..,

13.4

18.6
'2.0

1
NMF
WI.d.*\lRElATfIE
PERATIl
25 PERATIlNMF (1";10
".3
'6.3

29.S
17..

27.5
19.3

,
1'11111.1

...'

'-."
:~,

29
13~~

.....

.. ........

33.3
20.1

37.5
22.0

'. 'JIII"\ r'o-'

,;;

..

.........

Nil

30.4
19.5

33.1
23.4

'III,

I.

",

.lla~.

:m

24
1~~

".

..

28.3

DIV'D
lUl

II.'
tl1lcW 2.5

1~

Founded in 1903 in the Oklahoma TerrilDry


as a newspaper business, Gaylord entered
radio broadcasting in 1928 and expanded
into teIe~sion in 1949, In 1983, the compa
ny acquired Opryland USA, which now in

eludesan entertainment
and ronvention.I-....;;:-....c;rl-'~--n.J--~:-.,:;rl.....;;:::...~C;;C--n:;+......;~~;T.+--iirt;3.=-.=:=z!?'=:::'or-ll-.;;;cI

resort complex and several other entertainment facil~ies in Nash~lIe. In 1989, the
company pulttlaS8ll two cable- TV Sys1ems,
which ~ sold in 1995. On Octlber 24,1991,
10.35 rrilli011 class A shares we", sold
through First Boston at $9.30 a share.
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE a of II3CWO
Total DtIbi $638.2 mil. Du.1n 5 y", $13.0 mil
LT Debt $633.4 mil.
IT lmer.st $31.0mil
ITlduM $613 m"" 5% !Eand obigalD'ts.
S8CUl8d by 11 m_
VIaCOITI stJares,.
Onteresl not t:OYenId)
(41% ((Gap'!)
Las., UnClptllllz1ld Annual rentals $6.1 mil
PensJOIl LiabWly $6.4 mil. in '99; nClfle.in U

MARKET CAP; $B25 mllUn ISmail Cap)


CURRENTPOSITION 1_

1_

CB:-~

16.7

Receivables

Other

CurremAasets
Ac:c:tsPayab..
Debt Due
Othe<
CUrrent
Uab.

16,8
94A
76.0
189.2
115.8
6.3

...... 1'33]
"'"'i22]

ANNUALRATES Put
Dfct.lgt(plr~)
1IYn.
Rl'YIlfIue5

"Cash Flow"

--

Eami'lgs

Divitands
Book Value

83.3
62.0
164.0
128.1
5.8

_.

16.0%
_.

Put

tI3CUDI

:v.o

94.7
115.3
247.0
137.7
4..8

Est'd'l7 ...
5Trs. tD'I3o'15
18.5%
6.0"
10.5%
10.0"
--6.5% 21.0S
25.5'"
-17.5S
49..5%
6.0S

~=======:::::===..:===--=============='--I

HARLAND (JOHN) NYSE.JH


l

lIIIEUIIESS

3 '-~'1I2'"

SAFtTY
TECHNiCAl

2 '-~"""
4~", ...

High,:

25.0

Low:

19.5

U;GEHOS
1D.5 I rt:I5h
. . . ReIli_ PIa

JO (1.m. MaI\d)
2003-4S PRUJEOl!"NS
Ann, Teal
PrIca
Gain
RnP
35
~ 25 +110% ~

JEll

2~1 ~

..,.

..,

~1

1984

6.37
91
.1.
.23
.7S
33

51

38

7.13
1.104
J9
.2B

.os

3.94

33.0

19.1

ZO.8

32.'

'"

eo
eo

..

,
...

....

',,'

...

'11"''''
'

'III,

,,,''''

....

-.-

. ..

''Cash Flaw"
EBllIi1~
DiYi::l8l1ds
8oo1e'Value

eo.
.....
,.
1191

1991

2000
21101

"".

8ndl.r

1tol

I.
1991

2000
2lI01

.,...
."u
1996

,.34
1.06
.34
.10
. 69

.42
1.'"
5.48

3<."

Jr."

"."

9.18
203

...

...

I.SO
.68
.16
1.16

",,

---;m; ~

159.4
29.4

26.7

2'"

.71

1.92

...

199

".. ",,

13.07
2S3
1-'9
.90
.68
1.53

11.04
2.81
1.62
.94
.89
6.03

11.13
3.OS
1.68
.!1Il
,.23
6.68

18.32
3.06
l.S1
1.02
1.09
1.26

19.11
3~
1.64
1.02

".Il>

"' ...

"'.44

"'."

"'.,

..

S.90

18.12
1.12
.66
.30
1.46
621
OU"

tioo encoded checb:, deposil ti::uts, II'Id ntlirl8d forms b fll1' insI:ituIDns .nd ltMli" arstJ:meQ. Also provk* databIIM II'Il!fk8q ID1utDn1 10 fiI, inll.iIlJtions, ~h
Mark8ting ProiIlls and. OKRA.

- - 12.0
-~
.Jl:9. -.s:;
In an effort to replace its fadin~heck
100..
'08.4
printing business. Harland is
flog

Pat
,IYIL

8.5%

1..%

Paolt

&t'd'l7'.
Un.
10 '),'15

5.0%
.... 0%

-4.0%
-6.0,,"

10..5%
-20.5%

1.0"

-3.0%

IlIL\RTERlY SA1S II ~
Jun. Slp.sa Dec.!1

lI.r.31

139.3 139.1 1421


141.6
141).5
143.5 '35.3
"7.4
118.8 17'4
111.6
'13.7
176.1 171.7 119.8 l1U
190
18$
1'0
'90
EARNINGS PER SHARE A
r.31 JUIl.30 S,P,SO Dtc.31
.18
.16
.11
.2'
.20
.I~ .I~ .<9
.32
.32
.32
.4'
.40
.44
.43
.33
M
.0
.43
.A5
IlIL\RTERlY 0_
PAIl"
Ibr.31 Jun.30 Se~.30 OKJ1

7""

6.0"
11.5"
3.0"

.9.5~

Full

562.7
566.1
102.5
1Q!

735
Full

Y.,

.66
.15

,.37
1.1/1
1.711

..

,'uU,

.255

.255

.255

.255

1.02

.075
.075
.1llS
.1llS

.075
.015

.015
.015

.015
.015
IllS

.30
.10

..01
~~ .g;~
.05

.30

.... "............ -
.~ ..9

I".

... _,..,Ill
)4.0'

'I' .

10.3S
222
1.57
.88

18.23
211
.IS
.30
1.08
5.22
"-1>1
212
1.1()

" Tat RE1UIIII _


nos

2'-S3
291
'Jl
.30
.13
5.90

"...

'21
.13

1.9%

1.1%

$6.1
191%
42.4
13.1
.2.5%
4.1%
S3.0
107.1
162.3
99%
'A2%
8.5%
40%

102.5
24.1'
40.8
42.7
37.7"
6.1%

SOJ
106.4
169.0
16.7"

ISJI
19.8%
221

'". -Z5'
~ml!
UNE PIIB
,..,,,,

30.'
104.1

I.
............Ill .....
.... -..
::
- =....
Z<..

Z!.5IJ

.JD
1...
All

21..,

..,::

I/C. 03-45
31.111

1ZII "c"",

UO

3.JO

1.711 faninp ,.., III


.JIJ DlY'ds Otd'd 1* III ...
JIG OP'~I"'''
U.
:zl./JI CIf'MIIClrI5hlovtlfli
...
A.. An,'1 PJ>.oIio

R_PIERdo

AW; Ann' DiY'd YIIId

7IJ5

ZS.'"
AU
46.8

735

25.ft
AU
~~.)
46.. Nil_

....

t.l%
U%
30.11
105
ZIJIl
118
3JllJ
118% '1'"
14.1"
ZI.'"
".5'10

.u"

"" ""

.m

"

US
'.1ll
110
Z.....

AU
41.01

NotProIl ....

11%

W_I Cop' (1001)


""",1 ... DobI ~
SIor.
R.turn on 1.1 CIp'

1..,
.JI
'-'II!
11./111

:IU

33.'" 40.'" --'1u'"

... Slr.E";""

R.a.iMd to Cen Eq
AI OWn 10'" Prof

11.1
1"
Z..
11.5'10
fUll
1<Jl1
Z11

ScarMln prod. opti::al TNft I8iIding eqprrt. end turns. Has .bt 15
pUnts, 5,320 wnps., 6,960 shft*b. '99 Osp. 11111:16.S". Off.IDi".
com-oI 2.6" d ce:tn; RictuI'd BUn & Assotaies LP, 14.3";
Pi::lnew Mgrrt, 6.1l"; FMR Corp., 8.8" {3t'OO iW'OIY'I.
CEO

I
GA

cr.mn.,

C. Tuff. Inc.: GeargiiiI. Adm".: 2939 ..... Rd., Dec:au,


. Tel.: no..59J..5127. Web: www.Mr1and.lWl

role. The gradual ellmlnation of paper


checks as a fonn of payment means this
up its software
operatiolL
The once- sector has no growth prospects. Indeed it
stalwart check printing business Is in- has been slowly shrlnkJng for years. Harexorably headed toward extincUon (see be- land has drastically "",uced Its size In orlow). As such, Harland Is busily trying to der to keep It profitable. As a result. It
grow its other lower-margin. but more spins off a fair amount of cash flow. whJch
~lng.
electronic payment businesses_ is being used to fund the newer, fasteroremost among these is the software
growing electronic payments dlvlslons_ In
Wl1t. which provides sernces to the 8nan- particular.
the Scranton unit has been
etal
institutional
market.
Recently benefiting from this financing. We look for
renamed
Harland
Financial
SolutJons continuing cost efficiencies at the check
(HFS), this division bought Modelware printing group to keep It profitable.
Americas In March and Concent:rex in Au- This equity appears attractive for the
gust. Ii also acquired a 17% stake In Nel- long haul. Despite the likelihood that
zee Inc., an Intetnel: bankinB company. A1- share earnl"lls will probably be In the
though
HFS has lonll-tenn
promise,
$ \.60 region this year and rise further
reorganization
and acquisition expenses
next year. investors are unwUllnB to give
are taklng a chunk out of shareholders'
this stock a market multiple, as in the
equtty. A one-tlrne charge of 58.2 mUllon. past. In our oplnlon. much of this is due to
prtmarUy for tn-process R&D related to the fact that investors are not convinced
the Concentrex acqUisition, was taken in Harland's f1cdg1J~ businesses. will be able
the third quarter, and another SI mJUJon to survJve in high y competJdve electronic
chale
for severance costs is expected in payment markets once the check printing
the ounh quarter. These one-tJme costs
busJness dies out. Nevertheless, we believe
are excluded from our bottom-1Jne tally.
this issue deserves 8 better multiple than
The fonnerly
core
check
printing it is tagged with at present .
group now plays a vital supporting
Jeremy J. Butler
November 24. 2CXJO

"-_.~._..-.__ .__ .-".__ ._~


1117
1991
'991

12

..

9.94
209
1.52
.18

20

10

'.t

8.85
185
U1
.58
1>7
0.49

,.

24

"11'1111

M'IIIII

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
8.34
1.80
1111

'"

40
32

- -- - -- -

...

..

""""-

"'_11*"'1
S....

...-...- -

"

,.,--14.6
14.5
14.,
1~.
129
14.5
1~9
36.6
17.8
19.
14.1
'11
21.'
,.33
1.11
1.08
91
1.45
1.44
1.28
.89
93
.IS
!fl
1.0Il
2.1lS
1111
1,811
3.0%
3.5%
31>% 31>% 3.1% . 5% 4.7\
3.9% 1.3"
1.5%
1.1% 21%
2"
371.4 318.1 "S.O
S19,5 621J
$11> 609 . 162.1
CAPITALSTRUC1llRE a of 8iJUlO
Tatal DebI S206.6 mil. DUllIn 5 YB Nil
30.7% 31.0% 285% 27.1% 29.1% 27.5'4 25.1\ 16.9\
IT Debt $208.6 mi.
LTlnteMt.$14.2mil.
20.9
22.1
29.1
au 46J 42.7 39J
36.'
Ind. $6.96 mill 6.75% amy. IUb. debs., "', of
$.1
512
$.6
62.S
20.4
512 46.0
50.8
S4:an~ IlIt:., CDm'. irttl .....17111shs. 01 HaI18lld sf
369% 362% 35.8\
38.1% 39.8% 402% 41J% 411%
S25.17
162%oICap~
15.4\
155% 12.7\ 10.1\
8.3% 3.8%
(L1"-""""",6.3
91>% 8.2l1
Leues, Uncepltllizlcf Annuafran1a1s $11.41nJ:1
S,2
109.6 115.3
37.9
3.1
>a8
909
23.'
P8ltSion L1l.bllty None
12.7
11.7
126
111.5 1151 114.6 114.1 1(9.4
Z9S.1 292J
122.1
2>62
183.7 203.'
162.' 192.8
Ptd S1oc:1l NoM
18.7% '9.'\
212% 18.0% 17.11 14.8\ 18.4"
8.1%
Common Stock 28,845,942 Ih! . '48% 01CapQ
19..31 20.11 22.11 zan 1S21
.. o11018/OfJ
20.1% 21.1%
10.51
MARKETCAP: U50 mill ($mal CIP}
9.4\
16% 12.0"' 'O.s'J'
9.'\
6.7" 10.1% ,n
CURRENT POSmoN
lII3CIIOII
58'$
B1%
581
68%
621
4.11
1'"
"to
S'%
68'
eo..11IIlLi
_
A2.5
49.8
17.4 BUS .. eSS: John H. Harland ea-npeny, the cotII'IIry'sI8COnd !erg75.9
69.0
60.9
est linanciaJ saatDner, iI ~
~
iI ~ng ch8dIs IfIJd
215
24.9
~ntory (Avg CsI)
23.'
23.0
18.9
37.1 reliltlld iI8ms. Princi~ pnxIuds: ha8llneic Ink Chnciw Recogni-

ANNUAL RAlES

T_rv-t Pric. Ran.


2003 2004 2005

18.3
11.9

2.1.3
12.4

12.0

2OO9ll

,.n

Cumlnl Assets
Acds Peyable
DebtOue
O!IHK
CummtUab.

21.9
12.'

18.4

P.n:ent 111.0

5h ....

.2

'956' '858'
1985 1986

".14 ".33

41
52

n8

renonbl

- .. - .... ,~InsUtutlonal Decisions

24.8
19.4

28.1

20.'

Slreng01

Insider Deciskms
D,IF.AII,IJA
00100
0 0 0 0
000
000
0 0 0
00000
0 0 0 0

........

27.3
20.5

r_cp ~

nblirs

..

26.1 \ 24.4
17.9 17.9

2.5%

D1Y'D
YlD

1al

OC:d _

1:"10't1 .....

.... 15)IFTT\'
E 052

lIedi.dlJ
Pf RAllO

12 PfRAllO 75(1

I~CENT
P~CE

:~
SlDc:t's

IherBaftlll'".ExciJdes IIOIIf8Clning m.s.: "91, ex aboLl1 Feb. 5. Divi:l8IIdpeymenl: dates:


divillll1ds.
3Q: '00, $2.06; '117,5;;"98, $1.12; 'tXI, 29j!.
.bout .. fnt of M.ch, June, , and 0.:..
Next umings report dL18Iirte Jilnuary.
DPft1encll\!lllv8Qnen1 plan lIV'ailable.
CIlID). 'ftlle lJIe ~
~
!-"'td. FldIIII ~
is ata.-a """ SU'a5 II*'Ied to be rMIM l1li is If1Mda:I 'IIIIlauI .... ~
rI ~ UML
U!E PUBUStR 1$"'1 RE
E ORNf'llRRORS OR OMISSlDNSHER[lN.lll&ptialianis$l'it:ly
Iar~,
c.., 1IIII1-a1lNM1ti1L
idtn-.lIlR.
~
fll,., be JIFftIlIial1 ...,
tI ~
." prnrd. ~
lit' dIIl!I" bill tllII.IIllar ~
tI-WIs' I1IJ ~.
~~.
~,.
paIU1

rice Stabiity
Prb GrowItI '-l'ItDnte
Eel1ll".. PrMIdIlNlIJ'
I

7D
5
40
: II:

II'

HARSCO CORP. NYSEHSC


SAFm
ITCHNICAI.

.15 {I.DO ......

BElA

High: \
low:

5 u-o 11M""
3 ...."111 ..
4 l.QIBm nll.m

TIU\.IIESS

FIIA

...

300
000
000
IllImutionl:'

=-....

l . 111.

"ASO

~T.

0 2 0 0 0 2
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

.- ..

",. ,.,- .h.,..


" '"
""'" 1986
"""" 1987 1988 1989
1984 1985

..

IBM
1.60
.80

21.13

......
P

53

21328

24.19
1.6'
b!l
.57
1.3'
7.97

1915

2'-'2
1.85 1.13 W
1.02
1.10
.44
.52
.'7
JIO 1.12
7,63
8.06
8.17

.41

.-c.nt

...

.70
72f>
""1i!B4 ---;;m- --ss:rn-1.4
,Il
26.5
92
".9
2.20
.86
.76
1.01
.86
3.61
3.31
3.7%
551
.51
CAPITAl STRUCTURE as of 913lNDO

-=

I""

Common S10ck 39,917,297,tIs.


.. r:tI t0i3flDO
CURRENT POSITION

''''

ISlLL)
Co ........

041.6
310.9
175.8
59.1

Receivables
(Avg Cs1)

25.18

'.29
.22
.60
1.29
7.53
N~F
N~F
4.71

mill

of Cop'Q

....

'42.7

0lW

of""
SaIos

(.d!

,.

14..5%

Book V ....

e...

....1997

1991

2lII1

e..

EARNIIGS PER SHARE

JUn.:i<:':30

.&;1

.n

.66
.f

1199
2IIlIIl

.35
.50

.55

.70

1991
1997

195.8

63.'
564.'

8.5%

.... '.31 JuIl.3D S;;;:iD


390.7 '26.3 407.0
4D1.2 486.9 ....2
-105.1 431.4 '26.0
.. 9.5 457.3 533.2
521
Ii25
Ii25

.,.

234.0
65.1

305.2

,....

ClUARmlLYSAlf5 II oa)

1991

......

8iT:T

430.5

1997

e..

58.4
613.0

132.'
38.

1b,.31
.61

2001

87.9
424.1

Plat Est'd'17-.
nil, lD'IS-'aS
5.5%
s.""
11.0%
9.0"
7.5S
9.0%
6.5"
'5"
7.511

Pat
11 Y'I'L
5.0%
12.0%

=~ ,.5"7.5"
.....,
E"Cash. FJaw"

51.3
331.1

277.5
474.8

Cul11lntLiab.

'009

9/3QftIO

1722

58f'.4

ClJm!nt AsseI!I
Iv;ds Payal*i
Iloblllue

ANNUAL RATES

30.3

19.2

19.1l

35.1
19.0

47.9
33.3

.,.3
22.3

34.'
23.1

DMl
YlD

4.4%

....

TarV-t Pricll Range


2003
2005

31.2
17.7

Full
DC31
403.5 1627.5
431.1 1735.,
486.3 1720.6

589

~
A

2DDIJ
2100
Full

Do<.3'

'a,

.61

~54
2.36

.55
.55

..

..

.'"

..

.. ..'

..

.'

- -- - --

--

--

~22

.11
1.42
.86
.77
.75
2.1Il
AI
.lD
QllIRTEIlLrONllE/lDSPAlO ..
Full
....r.31 Jun.30 St~u.- Dec.31 Y.. ,
.19
.19
.19
.19
.75
.20
.20
HI
.20
.2D

..'"..

100
SO

""
"
12
,
..tot RETURN 1110D ~ ,

11"11,'1;11"',1'1(111

20

-'

,'!!:..................

,".

,., .-

.-,

...

...

.'

.. ' ..

'.....
.

.. .

1.5

IIIARKET CAP: SITS mllllan (Small Clip)

~""'Y

23.2

17.5

Pf RAOO.

... ~:~

3.D

Taul Debt $888.2 mi. OIIe in 5 Yrw.$450.0 mi.


IT Debt $824.8 mi.
LTInrnt $80.0 ml.
(56% of Clp'l)
(Total merest CCMIilge: 3.5:1:)
Las .. , Uncaptb:1zM Annual renlatl "1.5
Pension lIlblllty None
Pfd Stodl. None

III '111,1

II

;'<..

o.ci.lon.

50
57

I~,

22.5

RI'lJrJJ

~il> ..
loilI
40

...,

19.8
13.9

TWE

l: 9.\
: III

~':u~~/~

(+175~1 3~
(+80%
1
fnsider Decision.

15.2
11.4

o::.~

c..m

8.9

RAID

LEGENDS
6.0 I
Fbw[Jp !II
. . . RetlM Pm ShngII
Z.fol-l~
un

2OO:H5 piIDJECT1O~
Ann,TotII
Price

,ot.if

15.6
11.3

T~ 22 Pf 9 2 (trMn )F 0 64

1)'1'.

.l:.-=

3 yr.

-45.1

18.1

5)'1'.

2'2..9

83.4

31.1

041!1

r~

1990 1991 1992 1993 199' 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 CY.ll.lElMPIIl.IlC.
0U5
33.55 37.D3 32.01 28.70 26.96 29JS
31.40
34.64
38.35 ,<94
5415
52JJ S11l1p11"lh
,.20
,.5:'
5.29
5.65
7.31
W
2.55
2.B6
2.60
3.58
tJII
ITS
'.60
1.45
1.72
1.33
1.41
1.54
~D9 2.39
~54
~36
142 2lD EhInIII PI!' III A
2.22
llD
U;
.60
.62
.70
.60
.J5
.70
.T4
.76
AS
.90
.If DWd. Dld'd per all ..
U5
(15 CII>' Splndinl
1.36
1.03
3.53
<JII
1.66
Ul
217
3.03
3.05
3.J5
'.37
III
9.75 '0.56
8.33
11.54
12.49 13.74
16.64
15.'4
2119
9."
'5.22
'1.'5 80clk \Welt pII" '" c
2.45 52.47 50.76 '6.55
50.36 50.10 49.60 45.98 4525
40.07
loutd'g P
40.'"
"'7'
8.7
9.6
.. 5
152
14.1
'67
13.'
A. Ann' PIE RIio
'3.7
'U
.85 .60
.59
A7
R_PIERdo
.86
.90
J2
.84
.88
.75
;;;
521
.51
3.91
3.41
~21
3.11
Ai", Ant!"DW'd YIeld
3.31
~91 UI
101
2AI

.1.1.

"--pr'"

...

-..:: ::
--

'3.'

1759.5 1943.1
90K
9JI
50.6
57.7
69.5
765
36.81 36.0"
'.01 3~1
2265 284.7
1~.S
':'2.7
437.1 479.7
13.61 14.1115.9% 16.QIl
8.7"
9.4"
451
.11

1624.9 1422.3
1U, 13.8'
57.1
69.5
89.2
69.'
"'oK '2.01
8.51
UI
316.9
182.1
11&.8 364~
495.1
523.1
6~1
16.0"
18.0"
13.3'
11.116.6'
391
511

1357.7 14955
14.'% 17.01
99.6 104.9
60.6
10:5.6
41.1% 42.1\
7.. 1
5.91
254.'
'45J
340.2 179.9
5812 626.0

1557.6
17.8"

109.04
119.6'
38.01
7.61
214.6

227."
66U

10.5%

"AI '42"

119"
7.81

16.91
10.91
351

."

11.5"
11.9"
321

'*

'U.
......

1621.5
18.3"

1735.4

,,6.5

131.4
107.5
37.51
621
112.6
309.1
685.3
11.8"

100.'
38.0%
621
341.2
19l!1.&
181.7
11.'112.61
7~1
391

8USIIESS:
HlIf'SCD Corporation IS iii manu1i1d1mg III'Id 1Elf\'i:e
~ny.
Has tine operabng groups: Mstal R8C8maI.ion and Mil
Semen (dhIrs -*m b .rie&l mils .1Id I':le&llll'gil:af iHlustrilts);
hrhstudln and CoI1llruQon (Ix:l l'lIilr.Iy maintenl.nce ~
.
grating prodUds, shomg and ~
bmin;l eq~ . redng
gran_);
and Gas .nd Fluid Con!nlI (incL pipe ftIiJgs, gat; con-

18.4"

15.7"

9~1
371

- .. =-

1720A
21"
18.'" IT.ft 1111 __
Ilam)
135.9
165
9/1.7
III
'to .. ""'Bt (InollI!
35.01 319%
R:niTaRa
IJI
U1l
12ll
1825
175 W_I CII>' (lnJl)
4f8.5
f5I
745 Shr.
650.1
rT5
SnI
7.5lj
9.71
~.IIRftlmClfJTaCIIC.'
E.....
14.0" 14-'" 11'" R...........
L5lI
8.3"
I.5ll RlWMdioCDII&!
AI Dl'dslD NIt PrcI

,..

".11

...

..""'''......
~~

::-".\1ttM1

'" "" ""

...

2175
11.51

,..
liII

34,1"
Itl
175
451

,.

11.'"
11'"

""''""

troIIcontai'rrem
products). DI!1ense segrI*Il joh( ventIA Win
FMC Cp. sold 10197 (owned 40'.); BcquRd Mul&fv 8193. 8GB
&00. Has B dM.; abolIt 13,800 ~;
7,300 sIrtIkh. '99 depr.
1iI'&: 7.3". FUR ~
13.0% 01 aJ'TInDII, (3IOD ~
Chnnn. &
CEO: DerlIk C. Hathaway. Inc:.: DE. Addr.: P.O. BCD:8888. Co1n1>
HI, PA 17001. Tel: 717-763-7064.
Intemet: WWW.hilf1UU:Om.

Harsco is in the mJdst of a difficult op- hJstorlcaJ nonns, largely a result of the
erat1ng environment.
An influx of cheap SeB acqtJ.1sitlon. But management has
imported steel into North America has been ~uccessfu1 at redUcing debt in the
hurt. results at the Mill Services Group past, and expects 1.0do so again. Speclfl(approximately 35% of total sales), which cally. we estimate free cash flow and proprovides services thro~out
the steehnak
ceeds From planned dI"",tltures to ap~ing process. Rising fue costs. asset write- irnate $190 mllllon next year. ena ~
downs at the Infrastructure Group (about Ha~
to reduce 10l1g-tenn debt to $6
42% of total sales), and adverse forelgn- million by year-end 2001.
exchange movements are exacerbating
ntese
shares currently c:any
our
problems. As a result, share net was down lowest
rank (5) for TImeliness.
And
14% in the third ~aner from the year-ago earnings comparisons will llkelt be weak
period. Additlona y. we look for fourthin comIng quarters. Over the oog teon,
quarter ean1ings to be essentially flat year though, the company should be able to levover year.
erage the recurring nature of its selVices
But eandngs momentum will likely business
(such revenue now stands at
up in the latter part of 2001. The about 60% and is likely to Increase) into
t half of the year will probably be additional market opportunities like Brazil
marked by high interest expenses and and Western Europe. In addition. Harsco's
weak revenue growth assodated with sea- geographlc diversity - it currently operasonallty at both the SGB operations (the tes in 38 countries - should augur well
European supplIer of scaffolding) and the the company. These shares offer excellent
track-malntenance
business.
However . 3- to 5-year total return potential. Fur
earnings should be up substantially In the thennore.
our projections lndlcate that
second half of the year, buoyed by strong
strong cash-now generation might enable
results at 5GB, a better overall sales mix Harsco to make further
acquisitions.
and lower interest expense.
which m
well enhance our presentation .
Debt levels at the company are above
Michael . Renoff
December 29. 2000

t"cIt

ror

-------Tr------!:O-.'W"--".,~

1991

1991

.22

.22

.22

.22

.22
.235

.225
.235

.225
.235

.225
.2'

'ornaori"' .....

.88
.90

,bout,."".,,,,. """..

(kmosl:.... (81_'"~ ....


.7 ...... $6. . (D)I'm ....... dj...
'901, f~; '95,(1~}. da6I Jan. 1..... Appm;. d" d p8Yl'T18l1t dnIs:
stet Ipib.
s pi! on disc. opl.: 110, 511: '92. 5,
15th Of Feb. May, Aug., II'd Nov . DiV'dreinY.
CI MIl. \/IlIr L.M ~
Iat. AI ~~.
~adI8I..-riaJ is oliIined fnIIII 5C1IIQ5 ~
ID br natH.,
~.a..
~
II ~ tN.
1lIEP\lBUSi'RISfJlREPOflISlBl.E
ORAIl'fERRORSOIlOll~ClHSHEllEIN.llJis~is=~~_~ilullllllIW.
~
III ny tJr, IIIpfIIkelI. ...
a PIIIrIiIIed it .., piIell *t:MIric or IIII.hi!f bnl. or
III" ~
or
~ ~
cr IlIIdra'ic ~.
senice a pvUl.
_.
~,

E>ol.
(14f:1;
'93, ~;

"'*

""._1Iy

_~
Pra Crowth~"'"

65
50

Elmlngs

70

PrMlctl.b111tJ
'".

:11:

11-.

HARTEHANKS INC.

3 lDRrtd 11/lal
3 ,,"L'IIBII
TECHNICAL
3 ..... "'''.
lET" .as ('1.00 M.trtd)

lIIEUIIESS
SAFITI

i'&

GUn

{+1151\

50

14.0.

a..5I!

DIV'D
Iledlil1:NIIf PHATIO
31 YlD
0.5%
23 PIE!lAID 18 ge"iog21~~FTTVE1
. 5
5.'

High:

low:

?2

11.3
. 2

5.'

d_
'C'*'

ixIaIPs

3-,?,"-2

..'
II,",

3""

...

-.

- - - --

50
40
32
2.
20
16

,.
12

'.

",I
....

'

. ..

. ...

...
"...
.....
,~.
-
-,.....
" TOT. RET\JR1111CIIDI

.'

'.

. .. ..

Pen:ent e.'

5har

40 hOOd

",r

.11,'111,-

./

..

50

2003 2004 2005


IlO

,
11.1,

10'"

63

Ta,..,.t Price Rl!IInge

28.4
19.6

rere5SiJn

""

2933~ 31090

29.3
19.1

2tor1

22"

,-

28.5
11.3

IlO

RdiIM! Pm 5nnglh
3-1or-2. 1~
20101-1 si!I 3191

100
0 0 0 0 0 0
020
0 000
0 0
10000
1 024
Institutional Decisions
50

TIIMOp 5h

DJFMA.JJA

~,

19.3
12.7

1. 3

Ann'11*
Return

30 (+30%
Insider Decisions

.....s.
.... ....

LEGENDS

2003-45PROJECTIONS
Price

weEN!
PRICE

NYSE.HHS

ma

11.8

3~.
5~.

2.1

14.8
300

".3
122.3

10U

Harte-Hanks is the successor to a news- 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 GYALUElII'EPUB lie. O~
..
..
.. 8.52 9.3:' 8.18 9.05 8.71 10.50 lW 14.511 fUG
business founded in Ihe 1920's by
11l.55
..
..
.. d.35
Houston Harte and Bemard Hanks. The
.91
.91
1.35
158
1.10
1.15 '"Cull Flow" pII' III
.98
1.09
1.J5
.. d1.16
-.
company first went public in 1972 and,
.~2
.51
.64
.Sf
.18 1.01 1.11
1.35 E-nings per Ih'"
UO
..
..
..
..
..
1984, was taken private in a management.04
.04
.04
.06
.08
.10
.11 DiY'dlDld'd pi!' III
.10
..
..
..
led levera9ed buyout In a 1993IPO, Hart ..
.34
.42
.50
15
19
.31
.45
.511 CipUp ""'.,.. ...
.10
..
..
.. 1.54 1.96 2.75
Hanks made i1s re1um 10 Ihe New YOrl<
3.43 1.74
8.10
8.48 1A0 18.45 BDOk YIIut .. III
15.15
..
..
..
S10ck Exchange.
7J.19
54."
".03
59.911 7J.tiIl
0IWm0ft Shs OUtsill
,,-'" ...11 Will
..
..
.. .. 15.4 16.~ 19.4 271 26.0 23.9
11.0
'IAn" '/E
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE u of!tl3CUUO
..
..
..
.. 1.01
1.10
1.22
1.51
1.35
1J7
R-mv,PJERdo
lAD
..
.. .. .. .. .4~ J% .3~ .3~ .3~
T~I Deb!. $1.0 mOL
AvgAnn' Div'dY"1IId
.. .. ~23J 4815 513.6 532.9 665.' 638.~
829J
.Ill
llJ5D SoI.. 1InII1
1m
..
.. 2OJ~ 19.0'4 19.4' 18.9' 19.7'1. 15.6' 17.5' 18.4'
lUll :>ooni., Ii_
Laun,
Uncapitalized $20.4 milion
2f,l1"
..
.. 21.1 26.2 28.4
29.0 34.8 415
~7.e 0"-;_1".'
26.9 31.1
22.5
10.0
Pension liability None n '99 vs. $1.8 miD.in '98.
..
..
~3 d455
61.1 n.e
W
218
30.9 49.3 44.3
ND NIlPrultW
lJ1

pap.,

..

in

...

......
~.::::~ R.

-I.""

".,

--

..
..
..
..

PM Stock None
Common Stock 67.400,OOOshs. (100"'dCap'lj

..

IIARKET CAP: $1.6 bllion (liid Cap)

, , ,... ."""'"

CURRENT posmaN

Ca~~

1692
127.5

. 5
21..

Inventory (FIFO)

0Ih.,

325.8

-60.'

""""

Current lJab.

,ut

Ca>

1.. 7
1.
'199

233 .
10.0

Put

11 In.

-..
-..
..

''Cash FIcw"
Eami'lgs
Dividends
Book Value

....,

210.1

142

..

69.'

.92
154.0

116.5

ANNUAL RATES

s....

40
162.0
7.0

.... ....

CUl11!Int AS!8ts

=~ble

",-(,"'1

352
154.0
?1
23.8

5Yn.
3.0%

139.5

Est'd'l7'!tt
to",,,

12.0$

35.5%

15.0"

36.0%

11.0"

-..

Q\JARl8ILY SAlES (I

15.0~
18.0"

oIll

lar.31 Jun.3D Sop.3D Dec.31 Yoar


138.4

151.0

193.9

155.1

638.~

196.7 183.~ 2lIO.7 748.5


197.0 'Jff7.7 237.0 829.8
!I7D
235.7 243.2 1f5
10511
2081 15lJ
Z55
1fIJ
285
EARNliG5P8l SIIARE'
Full
Co>
.odar IIlr.31 Jun.30 s~D:iO-Dec.31 Yoar
1117
.16
.13
.1~
.Sf
,IR
.26
.19
.22
.22
D1.01
1119
.29
11
.26
.26
.33
1.11
.25
.30
.3D
.17
1.:15
2081
.11
.34
.:15
QUARTBU.Y DIVI>EIIIS PA!t
Full
co>-

1T7.1
1".1
226.1

.,~

endlr

lIar.31

'996

.01
.01

1997
'991

1199

.015

.02
.025

...

Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31

.01
.01
.015
.02
.025

.01
.01
.015
.02

.01
.01
.015
.02
.025

Y.. ,

.04
.04
.06

.118

--

..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..

d154.3
216>

..

5.6"
5.6%

..

..

N~F

..

.61

NMF

41.4
8.0%

..

41.8'

45.4'

~~~
5.61

3~~
34A
~2.8
320.1 2ll2.9 220.0
819
N~F
NNF
NNF

..

107.6
8.1%

165.1
102%

22.1~

18."

22.1~

17.5%

..

8%

43.6'
1.4'

41.1"

6.911

55.5

241.1

..

1.B"
1.B"4
7.3%

"

Margins
at
HarteHanks"
Direct
Marketing (DM) segment may continue under pressure for a while. Reduced
demand from retaU industry customers
has helped narrow the dlvlslonal operating
margin by about a half-percentage point In
nine

months

ended

September

9.0~
209.3

..
566.2 on.l

218.0
252.7
11.9%
19.5%
18.6"

1%
BUSINESS: Har'l!-Hanks, Inc.. pIO'Iides drect marketIog semcas
(67'" of 1999 rvvenues frnrn continung ops.). Mbuilds cuslornized
diltabues and generBll!s sales iNds. Indllitnal wsIornIn indude
nItIilln, heallhcan! organizations,and lhg, tech. and fn'l !llll'Y1:as
frms. In addlQn, the company's Shoppen unil (33"') pubEhes
783 beat .:lID!, W88tIy ItdWlltiUJg I3a.llin (iJcIuding Pen-

the

~1.2'10 ".8%

30,

2000, and by slightly more In the third


quarter. Indications are that the softness
~rsisted
as the December period unolded, meaning that DM"s margin will
likely remain restrained heading Into next
year. However, HH continues to execute
well, on many levels, In Its direct marketing business. For example, the October.
]999 acquisition of the Market. Intelligence
subsidiary widened the scope of H-H's custorner relationship management (CRM)
services. This also helped th:Irdquarter
revenues and cash now at DM. which each
rose by better than 20% year over year. In
addition, customers in the high technology, mutual fund. and health-eare busines
ses continue to Increase their reliance on
H-H"s marketing expertise.
And Sony
recently agreed to purchase CRM senrices
for its notebook computer buslness-tobusiness department. This should increase

11.6%
11.6%
10.9%

8.8%

56.1
5.0
5n.6

40.5l;

lOll
7DJJ

Inc:onlt Tu RItI
NIl..... IIqIn
129 W",,",. CopT 1"61)
10 langT .... _ ($nil)

...,

1D

8JD

12.5~

,'-'"

12.6%
11.7%

13.5l;
12.11

" "

.OS
"""

IDIIS. Exd. norH8C. loss: 1m, $0.02. Next


earnings report due .. Jan.

~ETM~

ZCIlll.'MJelile
TIlE PUBLISHER IS !lTRE
cI ~..,. bf, .......
.-III" ~

IiIIe Nov. Payment dales: the 15th d u..,


JlIne, Sept., Dee.

FMblIlIIBiII
is otf-.dlnlllll_
GRIMY ERRDRS OR OMISS1ONSHEREI'II.
n.., pri'IelL IbtIri:: II" ~ bIlL II" wed b' ~.

D SLnol'99qtn.dDn't-

IDbe~.rlltisporited
tIltItclbr'~-'lIGI1w""ci:ol.
'.,
p.- or

l..

~i

"""
1I:U'"

15lJ

1U

115\1 RIIum
115\1 RIIbn

lUll
lUll

'2.5lI

'1.511

III

on Tatal Cap'
on str, Ea~
RII:Iined to eo.. Eq

III AI DiY'c111D IW. Pm

III
nySlv&1, ,.ching 9.5 miIion househotls in C8i1omiiland FIcri:ia.
SokI newspap&' and "TV OperaWnl, 10197. 1999 depnlciiltbn ~e:
15.8"'. EqlDys 7,157. 0Ih. & On. own 37.3% d axnmon (:WO
Proxy). CEO & Chailrnan: Lany Frankm. PI'8lL: RidIIIrd M. Hochhauser. Inc.: DE. Ad~
200 Cona:wd Plaza Drive, San Antlnio,
www.hart&-hanu..com.

TX 78216. Tel: 21D-829-9000.lntIlm&t:

profits slightly.
Meanwhile. the Shoppers unit"s margins are on the rise. As we expected.
employment- and automotive-related advertlslng continue to drive profits higher
at both the print and the online ver.slons of
PennySaver. Profits are rising faster than
revenues, despite 1nc:reasednewsprint and
postage costs of late, the latter due to the
company's expansion In southern Callfornla and in south Florida: d.rcu1atlon in the
west Los Angeles and central Dade County
markels has been boosted by more than
215.000
households. 1be Increased use of
full-color printing is a key reason for the
margin improvement. we think. IntelTlet
business Is also strong. Total ads run on
PennySaverUSA.com cllmbed 53% in the
third quarter, compared with the comparable ]999 period. and the nwnber of
visitors to this site is climbing rapidly. But
we look for Shoppers' recent double-digit
revenue gains to approximate a more
nonnal 5% \0 7% going forward. All told,
Harte-Hanks
stock looks like a JDarket
perf"onner in the year ahead. Its 3- to
5-year prospects are decent.
Todd A. Schwartzman
November 24. 2000

-----------~In"----:~
TJIis~is=
2808

Sln:.....

.'"

FYkltaI(roundng).

1IIIIOIIl....-s
...

ekIdIait,...... sna

d:1b111
_.
op!

or I"'d'd-

htck's
rlceStlbllty
Prtca Growth PllrU11Mc1
EaI1lI. PrddabillJ
I

'.

75
95
20
:

II:

II'

TlllEU(I[SS
SAfIY
TECHNICAl.

3 .....,'"..
3 -.0 ,,_
3 """ 11Q,",

2003-45PROJECTION~_
Ann'TGtII
PricI

G.In

17.~
12.6

LEGENDS
5.0 I

a:,~f_Op!lh

....

'6.6
10.6

1 0

38.3
21.1

2'.3
14.9

40.5
32..1

62..3
38.3

66.3
42.8

,"

SOigil

~~

54.5
37.8

5U
24.6

Nil

28.0

40.7
22..4

"A

1'1

11'1'

Rtlum

",

II' h'd r,."

"

t': ~ (tl~l~~
0000

I 'H.5 I

H,g"'
Low:

)'1,"'1'\1

'"

lnaider Deciaions
JFIIAIIJ,IAS
.. .."
0 0 2 0 0 a 0 0 a
~.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
.. I ..

PRICE

i:b:, ~I!l~
~~

8ETJI .aD fl JX). Malkf)

\I~TNE 1 61 DIV'D
lID
18 PfRATIl 23 7 (TIOI'I:15J
IIediodTJ 1\ Pf RATIl

RECENT

HERCULES INC. NYSEHPC


I

'

.....

"'1'1'

000

..,

1yr.
:3.....
5l'l'.

:rs:.n

.n

11I/lL.I

C81l'1Assets
Receivables
~nIDry (LIFO)
vu_
CUlT8ntAssets
Aa:ts Pil)'il:bIe
Debt Due

68.0
663.0
04.16.0
3.0

1240.0

270.0
566.0

48.0
584.0
~.Oo
"""".

2.98

2.54

2.01

...

1.00
'2'
7.18

1.08
1.58
5.M

1.08
1.84
8.11

.G
,...
..."

~.J!!:Q
1317.0
1559.0

BUSINESS:
HIrt:uIes

556.0
1462.0

tD:."~

-1~~

=-

.~

=:1. ~

=:

~1J~ :.: ,:

:fr :fr :~

(AI PrirTgy earnings m 1996. Dllud

~1I.pwlh

of.

1.50

MI Di\l'dlo.crd I*' Ih
1.15 CIp1SpM,,",O,-'"
9.20 BDIllIlVllulI*'M

""'.!If,

ms

III
1.10
11J1

" ...
JZ,Q

.IIJ
iii
.J5IllI
Z2.5ll
165
1111
XII
70ft
...

1.
1461

1Z.Q%

1"'
11.5%

3B

BetzDearbcrn, 10r98. 1999 dep. rata: 4.8%. Eslina1Ild plan1 198:


11.5 yen. Has about 11,350 IITJPIoYees; 19,435 RJck~.
00.
and di". own apprcx.-rrately 2% d lhins (3KIO PIDxy). Chairman
lInd Chiltl Ex8cl.Jtir8 orfiar. Thomas L Gomage. Incorpcnted:
0etIwa1l. Addr8ss: Heralles Ptam, ~.
DE 19894. Telephone: 302594-5000. l~
htIp:ffWww.llerc.cmn.

a se ries
entitles.

transac

IIons

with

d'~
luerent

bit of speculative
Inhere. Hercules shares have risen
more
than 40% In price over the past three
months. largely due to the aforementioned
events. Nevertheless, the stock's current
quotation represents a valuation of only
.
'
Interest,
a bo ut 3 tunes
earn 'n~
..."6'" b elore
taxes,
depredation.
and
amortlzaUon
(EBITDA).
1bat suggests that this issue
offers decent value at these
levels. even
factoring in the debt and preferred stock
that would be included in a deal. Enterprise value. which takes
this leverage into
TIJ.ere

is a good

terest

:"P:&:~ ;"~~~I~::
~~~=:~at

IIlr.)1 Jun.30 SIP.30Dec.31 ~~~ &t~:r=,


~~n~S:i~~pull~
.66
.73
.81
.75 D2.98 to get the bottom lIne growing once again
.70
.77
.74
.33
2.54 Soon
after this latest.
CEO
transition.
.43 .58 .55 .46 D2.01 though, the company
hired Goldman,
Sachs & Co. to evaluate Its strategic alter
QUARJERLY
M'llEll)S PAID
II.
natives in order to maximize shareholder
I~r Mlr.31 Jun..30 Sen ~ DK.31
value. Near the end of November. managef-';;=-t"~:'--'!!!":;~""~...!!!"='t--";;::-lment expressed its decision to put the
1996 .23 .23 .23 .23
.92 company on the block, stating
the need for
1997 .25 .25 .25
.25 1.00 Its assets to become part of a larger enter
1191
IT
.27
.21
.27
1.06 prise.
Note that we think a sale could be
.N
1.08 aa:omplished In one large deal or through
1997
1198

4.11
li.7
83.4

15.6
15.1 8DIi''u''_
AvgAllnlPltRdo
.81
.86
:::::
R_PIERdo
2.7" 3.61
A" AnnHlr'd'tItId
2145.0 32-48.0
,J29ll SIIes(Sail)
2.-",
23JJ' 21.5% 21.5% Doonina __
1011.0 250.0
Z45
B DIprIddon ($nI_)
246.0 209.0
11$
:to5 NotPn>ItIlmllO
32.2" 30.31 .. '"
35.'" b:cnt Tu RatI
11.5'
6.41 17% U'I NttPnlflM.
.".0 d221.0 d380
Nil WonJnoCop'lllmlj
3096.0 1m.0
15M
1JDG LangTIn'II DIbt(Wt
559.0 863.0
US
1. at:~"'" (.-n'
8.0"4 10.6% J,"" 11.5J Rn.n lilT_I CIIII'
44.0'4 242'
21.8% 20.5% R.... on S1w. E"'"
29.1"
25.4" 14.6" 11% "..IS RI1IiH:I to Cora Eq
33%
42% 40% 15%
.c5Io AlDiY'dltDNrlPraI

15.9
.92
2.11
1866.0
25-'"
73.0
299.0
33.4'
16.01
0110.0
419.0
690.0
'lJ.7'1.
43J'

r.;;:;;;;~~;;---;;:~""'-;;:'=':;:;;o';;;:;;,,",to

~:.:w-a-JII'

1..

"T." ,.... _

,".OT '00.63 10li.39

Th e return 0 r H ereu1'es .onner


~
CEO
the chief executive's
office may
ANNUALRATES Pat
Pat EsI'd'l7'88 weD be foJlowed
by the sale of the
1'~1% 5J~%
company. Thomas Gossage reassumed
''Cash Rew"
9.0%
5.0%
.5"
cOlnrol of Hercules in October following
~~
17.0%
9.0%
-8.0'11
the resignation of VIncent Corbo from that
Book Value
-1~:~ 17.!:
post. TIle company's performance
had
begun a steady decl1ne near the end of Mr.
ea,
Ql/AIlTBll.!S4LfSn..., F.n Go ssages ~-,
t
1992.ndar Mu.31 Jun.30 S.o.iO OK.31 Y..,
IU-:O
erm as CEO ~
II urn
1-7.;;-t7.;:;:....:;~;:-~;:.....::::""'+.:;;:;;"1996, prtmartly due to competitive
1.7
.495.0 502.0 448.0 421.0 1866.0 chemical-market conditions, and the situa1.
430.0 "5.0
510.0 760.0 2145.0 tlon has only worsened during two sub1111 791.0 817.0 813.0 827.0 3248.0 sequent managf'l11ent regimes. Early
thJs
o ::
:.0
:0
year. Hercules announced a plan to divest
EARNINGS PER SHARE A
non-core assets. pay down debt, and focus
Other
CurTllniLiab.

.17.0
.58.8
-I."

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 cYALll!UNEPIJIl,IIC.


o~
19.42 1127 :lI.53 J4lS J41I Slltspwlll
11.
3.11
3~'
431
115 131 "CuII_p.nll
195

Inc. is I d~(Ied,
watdw1je procIlIC8I' d
chemicals and reliltBd products. Busl1essles flckJdl: Paper T.ch
nokJgy, Resill, Fibers, Food Gums, BIIZDeowbarn, and AqUabn.
1338.0 'i'iTf.D Sokl Bectroni:s & Priling, 12195; AerDspac:a, 3195; liquillllk*llng
320.0 221.0 Resins, 1lW4: PacJr;aging FiMls, .w4; T~w,
Ml7. Acqund
678.0
685.0
the n1milililll SO'" of the Fl8Visions joI'It ven1lnl, 6198. Acqllfid
63.0
635.0
380.00
260.

s:::..

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
16.03 15.S7 15.92 18.40 20.37 22.14 22.71 20.91
21.9( 22.64 24.19 12.37 20.32
1.92 '.46
1.91 235
2.09
.59
2.25
191
2.60 3.06
3.38 '.01
'.06
1.18
.74
1.11
127
1.00
d.70
.89
.fff
123
1.61
2.05
2.n
2.88
.49
.53
57
.61
.or
.75
.75
.75
.75
.75
.75
.84
.92
1.36 1.44 1.56
1.40
1.82
210
1.93 1.53 1.15 1.22
1.41 1.06
1.18
8.52 9.04 10.37 14.96 14.86 13..59 13.78 13.70 13.38 11.17 11.10 9.97
8.75
''''.39 163.03 '54.23 1
'39.82 140.86 140.'" 1136.51 122."
"6.54 ',".49 '01.40
92
16.2 14.3
2.4
15.5
.
12.3 2O.lJ 14.7 17.1
17.7 11S.6 18.9
.86
1.32
JJ7
.18
1.30

.91
128
.89
,.,
1.18 1.2.
1.18
4.6" 4.4" 3,4" 20.4"
".3"
4.8" 6.8"
5.6" 4.1'
2.71
2.1"
1.71 1.71
CAPITAtSTRUCTUREnofll3CWO
3199.9 2928.9 2664.9 2773.4 2821.0 24271 2060.3
13'% 15.5' 11~' 20.3' 20.'"1 23.5' 25-"
Tatal Debt $21551ril
Due m 5 YIS NA
191.1 180.4 171.8 169.3 1.a.D 132..5 106.0
LTDetIt $1470 niL
LTInterest $125 rril
125.3 94JJ ,67JJ
206.' 246.1 309.1 361JJ
{Esfd ttal Ininst C\M'12II'!: 04.OxJ (.... " d c.;J7)
36.6% 45.8' 35.5" 33.7% 32.91 31.11 32.8,
Win,
Uncap/tlliDd Annual ren1a1s$39.0 mIL
3.9"4 32"
5.9% 1.5"
8.~
12.7" 14.9\
Pesicn Lilbllity None
692.1 646.1 '75.'
342J 384B 180.'
45.0
601.1 483.0 430.8 316.9 307.2 297.9 345.0
PIlI Stocll S992 mil
PfI:J Div. NA
1942.0 1918.4 1746." 1358.2 129U 1061.9 887.0
(30% ofC8p'l)
6.01 4.8"
8.5' 13AI 16.3% 23A'
25.7%
CommOliStock107,0469,538shs. (26%clC8p'Q
6.5'
1.6' 15.2' 19.0'4 21-"
34."
MARKET CAp: $1.8 biniOl'liMid Cap)
1.01
NMF
3.9%
8.3"
12.1" 19.a,
24.01
CURREN'TPOSITION
1198
1H9 II3CWO 841 111'
60% 46,
36%
31,
311

\IL=

'I. TOT. RETURN 111GO

Instltutlonal Decillions
1Q1M JQ2..
WIll Percent 12.0
IIlit
BO
75
83 sh.re.
.
70~
~
fJ74~ tTlIded 4.'

more

conservative
some
money

accounts
take
at
Jeast
off the table
now. There

are nwnerous

WlCertaintles here as well,

the rapidly declInIng bottom llne being of

particular concern. With the poor market


conditions discussed above haVing persisted, It could be difficult for the company
to get sOmething done at what It considers
to be the right price. Aa:ordlngly. some
caution Is warranted.
Rick S. Plummer
December 22. 2000
add dUi to changng
Comp.ny'l Financill a ... ngth
B

ItlilQ21_; '97, 26j; '98, ($2.441; '99, ('381;'00, ..7_. for stock spll (DI ~nl
dBr. EmUdes ncrncur. gains (1osseS~ '84,
Indudes unusuill charije: '91, 3Oj; '99, ~.
shin! bale.
S1ocll'l; Pn:. StlbilRty
(~I; "85,~; '86, fCl; '87, $3.65; '811, ('5~.);
NuI.-ninglreporldueInlJan~.
fBIOiYlPrlcl:GrDWIh ~
'89, (11_);"80 (21_); '93, ($1.88); '94, 2~; '95, cIend suspend8::1 as of 100D.lc) In mil., adj.
Eamlngs PrMlldibilty
co2Il1O.v.IIIe L)Ie NIhIIil;. Inc. AI rigIU~.
I.m-I..-rw
II lItuir'2d Inn ~
~
III be .......
8IIll is pwidaI-.lhauI.~
d "Y k.ild\ _
TIlEPUBUStelIS NJT R[SPONS8l[1ORAHY ERRORSOROM!SSKlfiISH[R[t,].
Tlli5p1l:i1G1al tssRly b~-._~dlnIIl
u~.t1l1pa1
I
I
, '.
d I..., be IIl:IflIlIIa:d, .....
CII" ~
""
fl'i'MlL lII!ttlri: CII" ca.-", _IMII b" gnnling CII" ~."
piIIIIId CII" ~
~
stnIice CII" .......

60
35
60
: II:

I I' ,

HILLENBRAND
IND. NYSEHB
3 .....,_
High:
Low'

lWllJIIESS

3 _edllM!1
3 -.010111

SAFETY
TECHNICAL

132

2.fu:r"s:~
~

idcDrs nunbl

Mr.

~ l~l '~

Insider Decision.

....

.1'... ~~"~'

D,IF.A.JJA

001
0 0 000 0
00000
0 0 0 0
100
0 0 2 0 0 0
Institutional Decisions

319~

RItUm

Gain

43.6
33.S

Medi.tlU

48.6

36.5

43.6
26.6

34.1
27.0

40.3

51.5
35.5

31.9

1,,1

....' ....

II"

...

..

..... - .. ..
.. ..

1'-'11,."

....

"I'

Pen:ent
lI.har ..

54

66
10857

Book Value

Po",

Put
11Y~

9.0,,"
9.0%
10.5'4
13.0%
11.0%

.......
..""

Est'd '17.'11

5YrL
7.0%
4.5%
5.5%
9.5%
9.0%

6.5"
5.5"
7.5"

.....

12.""

,,
Fl_' Feb.Per
Q1JAIl18lLTREVEJIUE.I
~ oil"
,Y.,
IIIrYPer AugPer
I:
NOv.Pel

1197
1198
1199
2DOO
2101

,y.,
....

446

426
50B
524
503
545

479
516
514

5411

42!1

483
481
492

:as

~PERSHAREA.

E.", ~eb.PIf lilY PlrAug.P.r

415
531

526

1n6
2001
2047
1t1I5
2195

.,. ,..
.....
Y.,
551

,,,.\

.....

.56
.64

.54
.66
.62
.56

...

20
'6

'2

..

.......
.....
"" ....
,,.

" TOT. RET1JAII MID


1".

25.2
87.6

-".
CYALIEUNEPIII.I:.
3 ".

30.13
5.01
2.73
.72
1.33
14.34

3221
3.88
2.2<
.78
114
13.19

2U
1.09
1.3\

18.4
1.05
1.91

2001
~15
35.JlJ RI'fInUlSp.-_ AI'"
;W
"Cub
2"
H' EI:nlInp 1* ... ,
.11/1
M Dlv'dl Dld'd pIl" Ih C
1...
1.45
, ... 1It
BDOk YIIut per III D
"95

Row".-.

.51

....

::::......--

"""

"4

7"
42

,.

Vi Annl !'It Kilo

DJ.lI5

4ZJS
UII
275

,......

20.7.
I2JIII

"~

R*Uv. PrE Rdo


US
Awg Ann' tMY'd YWd
fAI
1115 R ......
(W)""
2001.0 2047D
2m
18.8% 11.0% lUI
lUI
19051
149.0
98.0
...~ 11~
1.
,It NltProIti
f
194.0 148J
231
311\
36.4%
~ kJCGIII Tu RIll
37.K
71\
91\
7.5%
UI
7.'" NotPrDI1M ....
Cap' (1001)
483.0 411.0
415
515
,."
,." Lon'T .... -!In->
303.0 302.0
,."
1... Sh,.
952.0 8311.0
IUfl
lM11
15.5% 14.0".4 '1J%
12~
RIlIm 011 ToIII Cap'
17.7% IUS
E.....
19.3\
IUS R...........
14.01
14.3% 11.5% 11.1"
11.17" RIIIinecI to Corn !q
26%
35\
l2'il
m
"I AI Dtv'dI tD NIt PrDf
(fI'lllnufactlns ClIskets) '00 FcnIhought, prtMd8" of funenl pBnniIg produds. Sid. Medeal 7198. BLOCK Mldical 7195, Has ap~.
10,800 tmpls., 24,500 d:hIdlS. 01". IIIId Cllh. own 28.1% d
stx:k (4100 prtlX)'~ Chainn.ln: D.A. HiIenbrarG. Pnlsidlnl: n
CEO: W.A. .-.nbrillOO. lnc..: IN. Address: 700 St8t, Rl 46, Batesvie, IN 47006. Tel: 812-934-8400. 1nBnel: www.hilltntnnd.all1l.

..

, ~m.:->
""'" ,.. w_,
,,~

''''''

BatesvjJJe Casket rose 1%, to $138 mllllon


risen nearly 40'96since our August on a sequential basis. Though not a subreport. We believe the recent approval by stantial Increase, the operating mar~
the U.S. Senate to provide an additional and bottom line continue to improve, ue
$26 billion in reimbursements to health- to a more favorable product mix. and lower
care providers Is primarily responsible fur fixed. costs fOllow~ the claslng Dla metalthis gain. 1his Inaease in federal funds casket production 8cllIty. We believe the
will likely translate Into Increased capital benefits from this restructuring wI1l conspending by acute-care hospitals. This tinue to be felt throughout next year.
augurs well for HB's health-care unit, con- A strong earnlngs
re<:overy should besidering that hospItals are the segment's gin to materiallze. After Bve quarters of
largest customers. Indeed, management
negative year-over-year
earnings com
has indicated that order rates, backlogs, parisons, Hillenbrand seems poised to turn
and shipments have already increased.
in positive results throughout 2001. This
Additionally, momentum in the intemawill
be driven mainly by additional
tional markets Is positive and continues to Medicare reimbunernents and the switch
build. As a result, we look for sales from to higher-margin
funeral products. TI1at
the health-care division to advance 32% said, we are raising our 2000 and 2001
sequentially, to $240 million, In the fiscal share-net estimates by $0.24 and 50.35,
fourth quarter. Also, reduced head rount respectively, to 52.44 and 52.75.
and benefits from the 1999 restructuring
'Ibis stock is not a compelling choice
should help widen this unit's operating at this time. The saUd earnlngs gains we
margin over the next few quarters.
project over the next three to five years
Meanwhile. the funeral-services segseem to already be Included In the stock's
ment
is
making
modest
gains. price. Too. Hllienbrand shares will likely
Mortality rates have slightly declined in only keep pace with the broader market
recent months. Despite a lower need for averages over the next 12 months .
funeral pnxiucts. third-quarter sales at Justin T. Sebastiana
November 3, 2000

Now.PI
.51
.67
2.1B
.63
Jill
2.73
.67
.35
.50
2.24
.55
.53
.III ~44
.11
.15
2.75
.f>
QUARTERLYONl)Bl)$ PAIl C
talM,,'>1 Jun.30 Stp.30 Dec.31 y.,
.155
.62
1l1li
.155
.155
.155
.165
.165
.66
1997
.165
.165
1108
.18
.18
.18
.18
.n
.195
.78
11199
.195
.195
.195
.20
.20
.20
IA) FISCalyear ends Sat. near8SI: New.30.
'99, ('J6f:~ 10'00, 3. Next IIQS. rpt elue u1y
B Pm!. egs. htwgh 1997, ell tIJer8iJftr,
Jan. (C) Nu1 dIv'el meeting llbout JlII'I . .41h.
Em IIOIII'8C. ~ns. (lid: '84, 3j!; '92, 15j; '93,
Goes ex llbout Jan. 25th. ApprtIll. cW'd pay'
(2): 114.(74<; 'lI5. 7;l".
(12;). '911, 0;:
....
"" '" nr F....
1997
1108
1199
2DOO
2001

24

......

-m"

ANNUAl. RATES
of ........
)
RevenlJ8!ll
''Cah Aow"

32

.. ".

I''''

54

48
40

"

".

"..

100
80

- -- - .. - .. - --

e.D

".U

""""

T.f9lt Price R.nge


2003 200" 200.

... .- ,.... .-. .


,"'"
82
69

1.8%

46A
28.8

26.'

"

57.'

..DIUI'"

83
4.'
7S
~
'9803
1989
1990
1991
1981
1985
1986
1987
1988
1992
1993
199.
19~~OOO
199"
15.11
9.59 11.86 15.34
16.50 19.91 20.32
23.15
24.48
623
6.53
6.32
25J2
3.78
1.86
2.10
2.32
2.54
!.fill
3.61
3.38
.n
.79
1.29
H8
3.36
3."7
2.(1;
.93
1.01
1.03
112
U1
.. 0
2.00
1.61
2.28
.47
.42
.65
.16
15
.28
.14
.18
.20
.29
.35
AS
.sf
./l
.62
.66
.13
.14
.76
.51
.42
.n 114 1.54 1.63 1.0,
1.36
1.50
117
1.>
'34 11'
3.n 4.14 .4.74 5.46 5.96 6.76 1.65 8.98 9.78 10.63 11.44 12.93
3.02
3J1
5.
.5
'.1> ".1>
16.1
1...
165
19.0
25.9
20.4
11.5
17.5
17.1
1.D
186
lU
1.34
115
1.51
1.14
1.17
1.21
1.51
111
1.16
1.07
.98
1.20
1.17
I.'"
,.\ 1.3\
1.3%
15\
1.3\
1.3%
2.3\
.\ 1.'%
1.6\
2.0\
1.8\
1.5%
2.4"
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE u of II2MIG
1106.6 1198.9 1429.8 ,.. 16 1577.0 1624.9 1684D 1n6.0
TalIl 0.111 $359.0 mil. Due in 5 YIS $56.0 mil.
20.9% 21.'% 21.3\
24.9'4 21.6\ 20.5% 19.9% 20.6\
LTIrrterwC $24.0ml.
LT Debt $303.0 mil.
94D
95.0 115.3 112.7
91.5
127.6
99.0 102.0
(LT irrtlnst ewned: 15.1.:; tJtallJlentst
75.7
891
105.5 1485
142.0
115.7 132.0 157.0
coverage: 11.2x)
(21% nrea.~
40.1% 38.8\
3U% 31.6\ 38.1% 40.9% U3% 39.4%
7,.4%
luses, UllCllpltaliZlld Annual rentllis $1tO mil
65\
1.4%
9.0\
7.8%
U\
10.'1
1.'%
216.2 156.7
279~
3011
339.5 314.0
462.0
294.'
'enslon Liability NOf18
108.1
103.6
185.1
107.9 208.7 206.9 204.0 203.0
pfd Stock None
438.5 .905
547.7 638.9 693.5 145.8 787.0
886.0
16.6% 13.0\ 1.4.11- 15.2%
Common SIDell 62,758,000 shs.
(73% nrCap'~ 15.3% 15.9% 15.7% 2OJ\
17.3\ 181\
19.3\
22.9% 20.5\
15.5\ 16.8% 17.7\
MARKET CAP: S2.I billion (Mid C.p)
13.91 14.7% 17.9% 1.4.61 9.8% 11.31
CURRENT POSrrKlN
105 II26IlIO
27\
24\
24%
22\
29\
37\
33\
29%
(IIILLI
170
208
BUSrNESS: Hilenlnnd Industries, 1rK:.,is hoIdi1g al ...... tIh
297
ea"' ......
413
358
R808IViiIblIS
392
C8re Ow., (53% r;I '99 revs., 421 d op. i1c..1o:mis1s d:. HI-Rom
105
113
116 Co., whdl makes Ml)lll. hospbl beds, mrtl:tMn, patiem rocm
~ntory (LIFO)
64
86
fmIitln, and iIIdJil8cU1II sysBrB designed '> rneel the needs d
Current Assets
658
782
60
69 ailllall an and pennatal pnMIers. Funeral SII'Yices ON~ (47% c:A
Acds Payable
89
"99
revs.., 58% r;I cp. n:.) mnSsts c:A till ealltSYle Cask8I: Co.
52
56
Debt Due
61
220
239
24'
Hillenbrand
Industries
stock
has
335
Current lJab.
375
371
....
:::.

".7
44A

IIIV'D
lID

".o1"CI!ihn.p5h

Ann,TClIaI

....
""

35.3
18.8

;:,,;,:,
~f.~~gV1

2OOJ.lI5 PROJECT1ONS
PrIce

24.0
15.1

Pf 17 7(T.. ng2D:~FMPfRAOO 130

45 RAOO

LEGENDS

.90 (1.00 .1QJMl)

BETA

22.6

I~CENT
PRICE

Ma,. ' ' .. .....

~ Ind. man. AI BI2MlO': $182.0 mil.,


9OIsh. (El In mi., 'd~ lot stDct. spas.
(F) R8v. Ind egs. pri:I" '> '90 noIl811i1!8d
FASB

'J1_" ...

o mil, 'Oe Iile ~


Inc. AI ~5 __
. F~
"'*rill a oIIlintd franl _
bIiIInId to I"IIWR MIl i5 prorridelI wIIaII -.rIIIIin II ~ lOd.
THEPUBUSKRISMlIRE PONSIBU ORMYRRORSOROMIS!itOtCSHE:REw.na~is5I'dJb~5~.non
ciIl,illWnlllI5e.
~
d l -r 11= ~
*NI II hIIlrI*d ill .,. pM-. ....
II lItI!f IrImI. II" II5Idb 'JIIIII*'9 II" nUetirIt *'J p-..:. II I!BlflIIIic: pa.bliun, senIice or praU:L

ComP:'fr' Flnlndllll Sbngltl


SIDell.. rice S1abllty
Pricli Growt1I ~rsiIIItIa

......
I

",

:11:

A
70
2S
II',

IRECEHT

HOLLY CORP. ASEHOC

IPRICE

THEUIIESS

2 ..... "m",

High;

41.0

Low:

19.0

SAfElY

3 .."',,"",

TECHNICAl.

3 .....,.,'"

LEGENDS
5-0I el.

.15

Pr1cI

~~

~
..

Ann'1 Total
RRn1I

GIIn

19.9

30.9
22.6

5.5%

13 ~m
30.'

33.4

20.'

23.8

25.4

21.3

29.8
21.5

28.8

33.4
14.0

23.1

,""

17.3

14.4

9.3

tt.'" p stl

Z:";':l~~SI~

n.oo-IQrUl)
200~5 PROJECTIONS

IETA

34.6
22.3

29.8

teCessCw!
1'11

1.1'.1'

il

..".,'

:'% ~ (i~l i~

1'11111" ,".,."lIt

........,( .....

InsiderOK.lon.
Jf.",MJJAS

.. ..,

000000000

ggggggggg

Institutional DeciUonI
1QM1
II'"
5
5

zm.

=- "~~

302.'
P.~nt
..

4~

'.0

41J

-illf."
ti!Im '. .'

.21

.12
59
6.13

46.16

42.40 34.26
1.54
.95

1.39

1.58

24

2.7'6

.12

.03
29
2.59

.
.,
2.76

5.58

:cJ

7Z1

4611

3.56
;Jll
.2>

3.6

21.1
3.7
50L 35.0
2.52
.30
.35
'.:M
2.1\
1.3\
.3'
..
CAPrrAJ..
STRUCTURE .. 017131.

53.18 59.29 61.39


3.69 2I1
1.16
U1
21Kl 1,42
.33
.32
.40
.48
.45
.13 1.68 653
1.70
.04
2.59
3.61
3.51
025 .20
.20
.20
.5
U
19.0 NMF

.80

;Jll

.49

..

1.2%

lobi Debt $56.6 mil.

Due In 5 V.. $50.0 ml.


Ll Debt $42.9 mt.
Ll Int.rnl $6.0 mI.
(fotll i'J1lnIt t:eNel3gtr. 5.3x)
(32'" Ii" Cap'!)
Leu UnCllpltallDd

PentlOll

Liability

None

None

PfdS__
ComrncNI StocH,550,814

$hllnlS

(68% cfClp')

aoflllllOG
CURRENTPOSrnoN 1.
Receivables

~
(LIFO)
CurrenlADe15
AcdI P8)'8Ije
Debt Due

121

2.6"2
82.4
123.5

3.8

190.0

~i rJ ~:;
1504.-4
109.1
52

3.83 W

.~

2.42
.30
1.~
5.63
.25
11.1

2.51
.35
1.73
1.85
.20
lU

1.51
.40

2.33
.42

I....

Z22

.66

.75

9.70 11.66
.20
.2>
16.6 102
1.11

.64

1.ni
1.1" 12"
1.6'
506.7 630.6 552.3 614.8
U'
SA' Ion
7.6'
10.1
11.3
10.9 15.8
2.8
19.9 20.1 12.4
.. 40.2-4 40.8' 38.4'
5'
32'
3.1'
1.0lI
5.0
12.2
18.2 17.7
80.1 14.4
68.8 54.6
29.5 ~.5
64.8 80.0

676.3
9.1\
19.3
192
39.5%
2"
66.6
86.3
962

47.9'4

6.6%

12.9'-

96.6"

1111 7131.

NMF

66.92 14.49 81.94

3.79

U"
1.8%
438.9 489.3
11.7' 65'
6.5
1.0
24.0
11.1
36.0' 36.3"
5.5'
1..,
11.6 18.6
34.1
80.2
2...
29.8
13..2%

112.1,. 39.4%

IlARKETCAP; StDO million (smallCapl

Ca:-~

.70

16.4t

14,.

26.1"

34,.

20.1.%

18.6%

11.7%

1.8"

9.4% 42.9% 32.0%

15.5% 20llft

NhF

11.""

NM=

37.6"

12,.

27.5%

14%

27%

16.""

181

BUD

71.44

.03

.93

-43.4

19.7
83.4

.'ZT~

1.5:9
.51
3.67
12.74
.2:>

16..
.9S
,n
.36.60
2.0%
2.2\
42"
5.2'
721.3 589.6 598.0
965.9
7.1\ 101ll 112'
5.8'
202
24.04 2U
27.5
13.1
16.3
19.9 11.8%
40.01 39.'" 39.9% 31.9%
U,
28'
3.3'
1.2'
45.2
14.8
13.9
.4
75.5
70.3
56.6
42.9
105.1 11.3 1289 129.6
9.5%
10.9% 12.4'
8.1'
12.4% 14.3% 15.5"" 9.110
8.4"

9.9"

32'-'

30,.

25.3

r81ilWY 118. Artesia, NM In ., ArizonI, New M.i:::o, and Teus.


1999 sales mbl:: Ga!lOlne, 59%; Oinel .... 21%; JIlt fuel, 11"';
223.9
Asphal, 5"'; LPG Bnd dhlllr, 4%. A!so operates nnsptl1irti)n
13.7~,
lenninals, and II 7,000 BID refII-.y 11 GNat fils',

22..9 ~'7'

=~ ~g:~~~:~f~
-2.0'"

l:

l.lF-,........""31...

1:

42;; .... _"""""VFY1I9,42;.NoxI

....

~li-U_

26""

4.8%

41,.

R.-unPIERdo

ff75
It"

.$
4U
4O.ft
3.n
21J
48

AVSlMnHIiv'dYllld
SlIts (N) A.
0p0rIIrII ~
DlplCidon (SrlI)
N.. PruIl(1nil)
MCOIIITuRnt
... ""'".....
WIlfkIn"eap'fSa.,
Long1_ Debll~

168SII,:_llnlli
16.ft

Ribn

15"5
7:/1
140
.11
4.DO
.JUG
{.JI

".D
.15
UI
117$
_
1U
2U

4ll.n

Ul'
35.1
2U

:125

on TDtllc.p,

11ft

16..5%ROJmonShr.E~

115%

1.(,ft

RmiMdtoCcnEq

12..5'%

131 AlDiY'dstoNl1Praf

& QltS explonrlionlprodudil!'1.


110 deprec.
1(111: 5 )'8Il"S. Has 615 ernpbyees, 1,800

OffICers & On.. hold 12% d sta::k; IhIwn Bms. liarrinan, 18"': ESOP, 12f.; 3 funds. 28'" (1UX! pmxy). CImIn. arxt
CEO: I..an..- Nonwcrthy. Pns.: M.P. Clibl. lnc.: DeL Adcins:
100 Crascert Ccut. DalliJs, 1X 75201. TilL: 21U71-3555.

shar&~.

Operating
margins
should
also benefit

d
_
arom
cost-re uctiOl1 e.. orts. Last May,
Holly announced a new cost-savings and
production effident:y plan that is ~",vnected
to result in annual pretax. savings of more
than $20 mlllion (or approximately $ 1.60
per share aftertax). As part of this plan.
the company should
reduce headcoWlt by
around 1096. TIle program, which should
take at least two years to tmplement. wUl
likely result in some incremental
savings
for Holly In fiscal 200].
As a result of
these expected savings, operating margins
should move up in the next few J-asswning oil prices do not decline too much.
Timely Holly shares offer solid 3- to 5
year total-return
potentia!. helped by a
high dividend yield. In addItion, eamIngs
and operating
margIns
should benellt from
robust oU prlces and the company's costsavings efforts. But the share price has
l~u1shed
of late. probably due to lnvestors concerns regarding the sustainabUity
of these earnings. In addItion, the Lo~horn lawsuit is a major cloud over Hollys
share price, rendering these shares only
suitable for venturesome accounts.
David Gal/en
December 22. 2fXX)

15. O_Old

"",,,Arc.,

po""""ID) d_',~.......
",."'
..,.......
h

B Di.rtlld 8iII1111US. Excb:f8S I'l(lllI'IQmng I'lQI ntport due ~


u.dI. (C) Plus lpeciaf about Jan. 3, A;ri 3, July 5, Cd. 8.
gains (bues): '84, $3.15;'87, (.22~); '93,(1U); dllbibutions:12JB5,$2..23.flh.; 7189, $10.00Ish. li:ns, adjJs1IId kI' stDck spll.
1J5, 69. Exc:Uc* iIMlnD'y wriedClWn F'f9!I, Nut djv'd m&erg 8bout MardI 3. G..

CI ZIDIl. YalIf t..m PltJinIlL __ AI n;u RStnId. F.......


i5 ClIIUinI!d Inn SIaIIrI5 ~
10 tie ~
.-.:I i5 paned wIlIIlut ft'TWllieo5
THE PlMUSJR IS NOT REsPoHS.'U l'ORAH'f ~ORS OR OMISSKlHSHEREIN. This putficDIr is sHIr fa ~s
l!'I'Il" _~
itfI ..
d I ...,._ rtpaduced. ...
II" br!IrIiMlII .. q pIiItd. ~
II" d.- bill, II" 115.:1 b ~
a
pW*'d II" tIIIdnnt JU**In, ~

rNIktiII.,,.

1t.4"

Montana. II1Y8StS
in oil
fl!IlB: 7.5%. Eld'd plant

26f.T

194.8
14-4.3
13.7

u!atiOl1 share
concenlS are weighing on
s
price. In 1998, Longhorn
ANNUAL
RATES Put
Put Esfd ... 'OO Pi
ne Partners moo a lawsuit against
a1'd1ngI(pIr~)
1nrL
Holly for more than 51 bilUoo. The lawsuit
Sales
6.5% 5YrL
4.5% toU'15
6.mIi
"Cash FIow"
2.5% 7.5'"
4.5"
alleges that Holly illegally supported a
Eami'lgs
-5.0%
7.5"
separate suit against Longhorn, to prevent
the latter from using a pipeline that runs
flacaJ
QUARTERLY
SALESfS.J A
ful
over environmentally
sens1tJve land in the
.....
-'
0cl31 Jln.31 ......~
111.31AK.J Austin, Texas area. Holly has rued a moE
j{j~+;; ... ::"":",,r';;""~'--,;';;:M,!.!Mi"!'H tlon to dismIss the case. and a dedsion Is
1197 186.9 f83.9 1&1.1 fro." 721.3 expected in the next few months.
1.
168.9 136.8 134.2 149.7 589.6 We expect
share
earnings
in fiscal
1999 143.0 120.7 143.4 190.9 598.0 2001 (began August
1st) to advanc:e
ZOOO 200.6 218.4 256.9 200.0 965.9 Sl:'T,ly, thanks to "'llTW>l'"ted
wider marllI01
326.0
2Sil
Z24
275
IQ7S
--r-fIKlIl
EARNltGSPERSHARE.toII
gins see below, as well), as evidenced by
Oct.31JalJ1 Apr.30 JIlIJ1 ~
Holly's fine results in the October quarter.
j{j~-t==;;:::"":7i;:-"'io,:-"":::T,'+-',<M,,'rI We believe oU prices will trend down in
1997
.39 d.18
.95 .43.
1.59 the upcoming months from their <urrent
1998 .63 d.12
.~
1.02
1.96 lofty levels, but that product
wIll remain
1191
.42
.10
.64
1.26
2.42 high enough
to support. solid profits.
i~ ~~ 1:~ ::
A reduction
in outstanding
shares
c.J.
QUARlERl.1DIVIIEtIDSPAI)c
should help support. share earnings.
linda, lIar.31 Jun..30Sep.30 Dec.31 ::r
In fact. in fiscal 2000. Holly repurchased
f7.;;;C-F.",",~;;.:"'-"''ri''--''7.2i''''-r7.-f 702,000 shares (or 8.596 of the total) at an
1.
.10
.10
.12.1
.44 average price of roughly 510.25. (We ex.1197 .12
.12
.15
.15
.54 peet the company to take advantage of its
1.
.15
.15
.15
.16
.61 good cash flow to search
for possible acqul
1999 .32
.16 ..
.17
.65
)
2DDD .11
.11
.11
.18
sltions and to conservatively invest.
Other

72.45 127.92 1.c11S lWupll'lh A


'.61
5.20 US Cuhflow"..-'"
1.911 2.42
1..46
5.50 EanrlRgapll' Ih ....
.60
.64
.69
.72 Div'dl Dld'd pII" III C
6.0,
3.26 255 1JS C",'SpMdinI..-'"
13.85 1~.62 17.16 11.35 BookYaluIPM'1h
.>5
."
{55
{.JI <.........
"'..,.1 U
13J
6.3
9.1
...... ,."'_

BUSINESS:Holy Corpcnti)n is a IVfiner andm'"


cl penIeum~.
Chief mirt81s for 60,000 baInII-per-dayNay&;:!

CummtLiab.
139.6
180.
"'.....
I
r:;:~~:;;;=--;;:=,=,-;;:7:;:;;;-;;;;';;;;i
Ho

3)'1".
5)'1".

D3-G5
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 eYAlUEUllEPJ8,lit.
53.43 53.92
1.19 1.1'

.~,".,".

In miI-

Stock' Prtce S1I.bIIty

Price Grvwth,.,.idMcI
&mlnv- P.... lCblbllty
d 8IIJ tnd.
1M. No pIff
IIIp1lllEl..

'.

B
5

65

45
:

I I:

, f

g: 1.1 \IRElATTI'E 041


18 ~TIl 5 8 (Tniln
Medil1:ll.IIPfRATIl

/RECENT

HUGHES SUPPLY NYSE-HUG

IP~C
9.3
6.8

10.9
7.0

29.8
17.!!

19.4

11.8

/'

I.l.\"

1,1

.... :.!
Institutional Decisions
.01"
nil_
IQJ. p.rc:-m 12.0
....,
51
32
51 .h.~
.0
::~I

141~ 1~

131~ tra"

10.9

11.3

.91
1.4,

.89
1.5'

.77

9.4

..

24.0
.
1.46
2.01.
.9%
481.0 528.4
19.6\ 19.6\
'-"
~2'
117
122
114.0 2.3
-. 38.61
HMF
.41
107.9 1092
16.3 79.9
81.5 83.3
NMF 2.B%
NMF 2.~
Nt6
NMF 2.1%
111% NMF m

1.6,

LT Int.rat $30.0 mil

CURRENT POSITION

1.8

caJr~

1i.0

R.c.ivabl_

~rrtory

(LIFO)

CumtntAssets

3982

4~:~

957.8

1762

239.8

Othe~,"""'
CunenllJab.

.5%
4.0%

3.0"
13.5%

Oivi:lends

::~~

~:~

BookValue

5.0%

1917
1.
1.

2000
20Dt
~

~.
1197
1.

1.

2000
2a01

t.1end.,
1196
1117

1991
1.
2DOI

..

". . . .

. .. .

'10 Tot RE'TlJIIIIlDG

~II

13.5

.eo

.K
660.9
19.91
3ll'
140
6.3
40.41
100ft

135.0
992
9...
4.41
6.7\
6.0%
10%

12.2
.80
1.0'
802.4
2021
3.71
144
10.3
,cOJI
1.31
165.3
100.9
1m
5.5%
7.9ft
7.0%
111

10.0

12.1
.10
1.3'
1.1'
1082.2 1516.1 1878.7
20.110 20.8\ 21.9%
3.9l1 5.0'
5.5'
170
292
384
16.1 32.5
44.8
40.61 37.1% 36.8\
151
2.11 2.41
180.5 330.4 474.4
1062 222.0 335.2
154.1 279.9 414.3
7.6ft 7.8\
7.2ft
10.4\ 11.7\ fO.8\
9.3\
9.5\
9.01
11ft 19% 17%
,fiT

11.8
.74

1.0,

BUS"ESS:
Hughes SUpply Inc. ill wholesale distribI*I" of conRudion 11M IIduAilillI rnaWiaJs IIfId palucts opcnting II 29
1087.9 states, Puerto Rm, .nd M&xi:D. DisIrIlul8S about 240,000 products. C8tegories indude EIIc:trUI; PUrtli'lg; Wltw and SlMIlt';
250.7 Heating andAi Condilioni1g; IndusnaJ Pipe, PIItII, VaMts, IInd FJ..

~1

8.0%

11.5"
11.5"

'~:Z:
11.5"

QIIARTERLYSA1fSlhill'

remained
strong in the second quarter.
tncreasing
13%. year over year, to $874 milUon. Internal
growth was particularly
impresslve.
rising 8% in the quarter
versus

6%

last

year.

WhUe

demand

In

the

ADr.P1rJul.P.r Oct.P., Jan.Per 'i: residential


housing
market
has slowed as
438.0 478.0 502.2 460.5 1878.7 a result
of
the
higher interest-rate
602.0 674.6 659.1 600.6 2536.3 scenario,
the company
derlves only 25% of
711.3 n4.9 786.4 722.3 2994.9 Its revenues
from this end market.
The
831.2 874.1 115 7N.7 33f5 remaining percentage stems from the of915
.,
t5D
'75
31DD
flee, Industrial,
and infrastructure
conEARllNGS PER SIIAREA8
struct1an
markets,
which
have
all
Apr."r JulP,r Oct.P.rJIll.Per ~..
remained
robust.
Indeed, water & sewer
.46
.71
.69
.44 2.30 and lndusUial
pipe. valve & fitling prod.49
.82
.79
.45
2.55 ucts (PVF) experienced
the fastest rates of
.55
.88
.87
.50
2.80 growth in the quarter.
We believe
these
.62 .96 ,f5
.5Z
105 markets
will remain healthy throughout
.65
1.05 1.05
.50
135 the remainder
of the year and Into 200 1,
QUAR1'8U.YDlVllOOSPAlJc
Full espedally
since it appears
as if the Fed
"lr.31 Jua.30 S.p.3D Dec.31 , .. r may be through
tightening.
which should
.06
.06
.06
.067
.25 allow Hughes
to build on Its posltlve sales
.007 .073 .075.08
.30 momentum.
We are targeting
an overall
.06
.08
.08
.085
.33 top-Une increase
of 12% this year and 10%

Ff::..

.085 .085 .085.085


.085

1.1'

'IL~r-

1 yr.

3yr.
Syr.

31.8
31.5

252 I91.15

12.3
8.5 ~~~~
AvgAn.'IPIERdio
.64
.49
v_..... I~
RMIIivIPfERdo
1.0%
AVIIMII'IDiY'dYllld
2536.3 2994.9
:l7DD Slles(Sai1I) A
22.0\
22.5% 22.~
22.5% Gross ..,11'1
5.5'
,."
~5lI;
~5lI; llpordngM.
438
488
51D NlmIbIr"'S1l:nI
61.4 65.9 72~
1411 NltPrult(Sqg)
37.7% 39.9\ 4O.DS ".D% Iftcn.TuRatt
LoCI
22% 2,1"
2.11 NdProftUI'"
567.4 657.5
875
7DtJ Working c.p, 1$rIIIS)
40~2
535.0
U5
U5 lonllT... 0BbI1~
494.0 522.4
!iI6
6511Sh,.-_(~i
8.4ft 7.7% 7.5% IDS RnmllllTotIICap'
12.71 12.6% 12.5% 12"'" ROlm on stI'. Equfty
10.9\ 11.11 1U'% 14ft RmiMdtDCcnEq
14"
12% 11% 13 AlDiv'dsIDNttPrvf

:I.~

1.4"

f41
.15

.a
4751

22.5J
5.5lI;

515
11t1
".K
2.:JS

'5D

1999 d8prealltion

Equipment.

13"'. Hal

ndIl:

6,000

12.11%
11B
101

llITIPloyeeI,

1,455 slDckhoklels. 0If"1CIlrs & OinK:bs own 5.B'" CIf Rxk; NmJnal RIMiIII EIritch:: CooptnIiYII Assoc., 5.6%(oWO Ptmyl. Chamwn
and CEO: David H. Hughes. PresidenI: S~
Hal. Inc.: Ftnia.
A~:
ZO NCf1h Or8n~ Ave., SuiB 200, OrlInda, FL 32801.

300.3

Sales
~~;-'

~::'
B..-

----

.7 o...:;:.....:;:::',,8;:'::..::.,,'' 'M;::-::::: ;:""E::",",,::;:::' ..:.......


::=;. ::' =:_w::-=.:..:-::!:=.=:..:--='-----T::.::I.:::4::0::.7
....
:::.:',,~::.7=55::..
::."::II&::'::
.. ::.'.::h',,'';h .....::;:=P~''':!:.::axn:::.7"
-j
73.2I
"""32tii Hughes Supply should continue post- terest expense could put a damper on
Put
Pat
Est'd -,MI9 ing solid top-line gains In fiscal 2000
the bottom line. While there was a sUght
1tTra. 51... tD'U-'15
(began around January 28th) ... Sales
improvement
in the operating
margin
In
229.3

RATES

P'l

.8
59.7

.
53.0

dc:t.v-,,"j

45.3
495.6

11I11!

",
L""'~--o;,a""""ii-----i~+-:iT.;'--.;;;H--T.~---;~----.:~:+-T,:O'-+----.~+-o'ii~~~'1J.l~~---i-----.~--1
I
us

7131100

10.0

341.1
4~:~

-.,gu

~<dsbl
~blll

ANNUAL

1999

III.

.".

41.8
3.10
2.1%
548.5
19.8%
3."
115
1.4
46.5\
.3,.
118.1
85.6
06.6
3.1%
1.7%

14.0

Common Stock 23,598,205 Ihs. (47'" ct Cap'Q


uofll11101
MARKET CAP: $425million (Small Cap)

'.'

I', ...J...-'

1.9%

21.8
14.9

30.0
17.9

.63
.13
1.06
1.6, 1.51 1!'
CAPITAL STRUCTURE IS of 7m*,
Total O.bt S627.8mil. Du.1n 5 Yrs $365.0 mill.
LT Debt $627.1 mi.

"

.0

8.8

39.8
25.1

1,1,,10,-,1'"

'>'
\;. ....

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989


39.73 43.32 46.81 59.27 69.19 75.80
1.45 1.51 1.64 ~19
rn
U2
~
~
~
1n
1~
~
j2
j4
.11 jS
~
n
9.10 9.67 10..ul 11.49 12.59 13.26
1.18 1.49 7.43 1~
725
6.99
9.8

36.1
20.3

"

,.

..

21.5
10.6

,II.

I..,

13.1
8.8

IMl
YlD

.065

.085

.34 the following year.


but increasing costs and

higher In-

the serond quarter.


Infonnation
technology
spending
and investments
in e-corrunerce
remain large. The company
has pushed
back its systems
consolldatl.on
schedule
(to

Integrate

past

drag

1IIt."

In onler

to

on

earnings.

As

such,

earnings

growth wlIl probably


trail revenue
growth
at least
for the next few quarters.
Our
eanrlngs
calls for 2000 and 2001 are 53.05
and $3.35, respectively.
Internet initiatives
are slowly coming
together.
Bestroute.com.
Hughessupply.com. and 5upplyFORCE.oom
are all up
and
running. Though
we do not expect
them
to turn
a profit until
sometime
In
2002, as hefty
Investments
are
stUl
needed,
we believe
these
initlatives will
payoff
in the years ahead. Accordingly,

Hughes' stock offers


wide appreclation potential to Z003-Zoo5.
Deborah Y. Fung
October J 3. 2000

early No. ExcUies llOInClfting 9airl: 'VO,


(0) In rniIOnI, IIdjusllld for sb:k spils.
11.(el Next djyilend rTIIIl!tng Ilbou1 Oct. 20.
Goes l!X-divdencl aboul Nov. 3. AppIm:m.t.
payn&rt d*s:: 1511'" Feb., May, Aug., Nov.
hdlllll ~
is oI:CIined tnn
bIitIaf III bel"lllilble ... il. ~
......
~
d..,...nd.
THPl.8l.JSl-l:AISMlTRfS'PONSB.l"ORNlYARORSOROIIISSIONSHERU'.
TIIis~B~
.. ~_,_Wi".""'ilI""IlR.NoP"1
d.1M]' tR ~
.....a III" --*d il." pi-. tiIIdR: GI au.r '-I. GlIMd .. ~
GIw.tiIti'Ig MY"'"
Glekllllic
~
-m GIptllla.
(A) FIICIII)'8III'ends on Ia!d Frilay ., Jilnuzy
offolawing
)'811". '95-'98 quarierty flgtnS adpsted 10r plXIIiIg acqui!iIi:q rnadII ..
i'l)'l'.
(8) DUIId urnlJgs. Nut e.nings repcIt dUll
ID21Dl, 'MJ~ liIe PubIshnL
nqIU raenoa:I.

acquisitions)

relleve some of the cost pressure.


Stlll. we
belleve
these
hefty investments. plus the
addition
of $65 mUllan in debt. higher Interest rates, and rising fuel costs wiU be a

temps,,"
Finandlll Strwngth
5tDck'. Pric. Stabiltl;y
Price Growtb ParUtHce
Eamings P..sIctBllly

65
60
80

".

II:

II' ,

I~r32

INT'l PAPER NYSEIP

39.1
25.3

39.3
29.3

34 .
28.3

~1O

11.2(~~ltl)It'~O.80 ~ 3.1%

40.3
30.3

45.1
34.1

.... 6
35.6

e1.0
38.6

61.8
35.5

59.5
39.5

..
..'"

Target Pric. Range


2003 2004 2005

60.0
27.0

eo

54

32

......

Inskler Decisions

24
"

20
1

.'

..

HDJF.AMJJ

.. ...,
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
_ .. 335000000
II'.
1 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional Decision.
11"
1~
2m.. Percent 15.0
273
281
333 .h ..... 10.0
:="1329~ 3,J:
~
tnIded
5.0

.......

., ".:'

12

.-

It..,.

t1I5

';-d::

yr.
5~:

!J!IIJI!

S1DCIl

IQll

-::~
-31.3

~~
97.8

1..

1lf1.titi lU'd.W UJ..':IJ

13.4
125
'.6%

3O.B 12.5
2.50
.85
'.9%
3.7%

11.

129
.86
2.6%

,.1
.56
2.9%

6.
. 9
3.0%

CAPrrAl5TRUCTUREasClfIi3lNDO

TotIl Deb!: $17,885 mil. DueitS YrIS5,oooml.

LTDebt$1U38mil.
LTIm...aS900niIL
lndudts S1.8 bilron of redelm:Ible prefllllllld
secwiliesconvertib18 irTtDamnon, issued byl-P
Capita1TrusI,awholy-ownedsubliliary.
(lTi1Insteamed:
1.9x:totaln.CD'I8dgl:
1.9J:)
(53% DfCap'Q
hnn,UlIClIpitaliZildAnnllllnmtlls:S150.0rnlll.
P .uJon LJablIJty None
PM Stock None
Common Stocll 483,449,593 shs. (41% of Cap'I)
n at 1131100
IIARKET CAP: S1!!.!!billion (UrgI Cap)
CURREHTPOSrrlON
1118
1.
I!rI3o.vG

Ca:'~

Receivables
~~
(UFO)
CuIT8n1 AssIIlts
ADa P8:f8b1&
Debt Due

Other

Current
Liab.
ANNUALRATES
~~(perlfl)

"CashFbw"

.n

453
3221

2469
2~

~J

---n4T

~
1525
1074
1037

3636 ~

1870
920
1592

Put

Pat

114-5
0407"0
3~~
9534
1978
3147
2687
7812

&t'd'l7'11

1II~ 5i~ ID~:


--

__

EIlmi1gs

-8..5%

-8.5%

Diviclends
Book
Value

4.0%
3.0%

3.5%
1..5%

r2.ffl'

27.5"

1.5'1
6.0%

.~~r 1br~~~~~~1
1997 4862 !i034 5119

1 .

"

16.7

20.'
124
2.5%

.58
1.01
3'%
2.6%
12960 12103 13598
161%
661

706
390%

5.4,
1~
3096
5632
9.3"
12.5%
9.3"
26%

13.5%
100

6
31.5'
3.4'

25.'
lOB
B.7 269
46.1
11iO
1.36
.58
1.68
2.69
2.6% 2.3% 2..% 2.'% 2.1%
13685 1.966 19191 201043 20096

12.5%

1Ul%

12.1%

850
405

89B

885
432

404

32.9%
3.0%
d165

3351

:mEi

314
31.2%
2.3%

392
3601

34.9%
2.9%

196
4464

5739

6189

6225

6514

61"
1.6'
4.4%
043'

S.3%
6.5%
3.2"
51%

41"
S.OII
1.1%
66%

54%
6.6%
3.4"
49%

18.8%
1031

13.91.
1194

1153
35.5%
5.8'
1010

434
310
32.2' 33.110

6396
T791

13.0"
1258

37......

2.40

2.1.

2.1\

2.0'/,

1~1
122%
1186

308

2.2%

1.SIIo

261\
1.6\

104

1005

231.

1141

1604

8212

9344

8110

8'})2

9.6"
41%
14.8110 4.6%
11.1%
1.5"
21%
61%

3.4%
3.6%
.1%
91%

31"
3.5"
.0%

99"

.. _ _
....... Ulw

0:1-05
SUI
UO
<1M
1.66

.,

'i MnnJE _
R*ttYtPIERdo

.;;;
A'IMn'lIY'd_
24513 30150 1Sf25 Wa~
13. "
1&.1% 1111
1520
1425
11110 DlprwddalllSmIl)
,. _ ::...
551
11.
1.
NelPnlItI_1
29.0% 32,'" J2.ft IncontTuRdt
22"
J-'" .tI% NIIPraltb'gln
2859
1$
1310 WOIkIngClp'($II1I)
9325 14425 11115 Lcng~T-:n~J$nIII)
10304 ttt.2II 'UCJ SfIt Uh ((l_
4.0%
5.3"
1.3%
1'6%

5.S%

t.'"
5.5%
3ft

1.0% Rlium

on Tolal

CIp'I

11.5%R.un on &hr. E~
,oft RetaiMd III COllIEq
2ft, A!D/Y'ds1DNltPrvl

110
11'
'M
,5.1
tOll
1~
G12J
11.$%
WS

z:m
un

m
2DJ

1DW
1S12S
,oft
12.6
lS%

BUS"ESS: InIem;rlionai Pllpar Company is the wortI's ages!


peper 1100fcesl pnxIuds COITClIny.Pra::luds include paper, paper.
boIrd,~,
lumber, pallllls, lilmindltd produeu, mll8r8ls, ch8miCIlb, .lId pack8gng producIs. AJ.:l distrbutBs PIper and cftc:8 ,upplies in the U.S. Manages abouI: 7.1 ml, liICIft of tl1tleriilnds. Recant map acquidions: Union Ca~, 4199; Shcnwood PlIl:Uging,

3100; CItarnpion Inn 6/00. Foreign ops. g8ll1l1i1iK1 22% of '9Il


sallis. '99 depr. me: U%. ~p
99,000. 001. & din. awn less
than'''' at d'Jck; limp!. benefl plI.ns, 8.1110;S. C.
& Co.,
5.9%; Clip'! Res. & Ngrmt., 5.3%: (3000 prmy). CInm. and CEO:
John T. Cion. Inc.: NY. Addr.: Two ManhdanYlt
Rd., Poo:h_,
NY 10m. Tel.: 914-397-1500. Wab: www.~per..ccrn.

International
Paper
continues
to
revamp its business portfolio. With the
goal of narrowing
its focus and bolstering
its core paper, packaging, and forest produets operations. the company 1s divesting
segments:lt deems peripheral whJ.l~urhasIn
thers. I n aggrega t e, It mte s t 0
ego
dispose or approJdmately
$3 billion In as-

Meanwhile. the comr,any is managing


its capacity with a C ose eye on inventory levels. Demand for most grades of
paper remains fairly vibrant :In As:la. Europe, and South America. reflecting the
sustained eronomic recoveries in those regIons. G rowt h rates In the d ames tIc paper
markets, however, appear to be gradually

r:iJ~~:t

~: ;~tybyotili:"~
f~~edr::~
SOlII 21!1.196
repayment.
Pending or planned dlvestl1991 4868 4707 .939 flJ27 19541 tures include petroleum and chemJcals
1199 6371
Ii032 6780
59!16 6251
.673 subsidJaries, as weU as some nonstrategic
2000
8Q5 6294
1514 156
2001 _
_
_
_
35Q5
tlmberland
and paper businesses.
The
EARNlNGSPERStlAREA company has also pursued an aggressive
e~r lIu.31Jlln.3D StP~ Dec.31~:~ consolidation campaJgn of late. culminat7.~+",7.''-'''''':;<,-,''''~-!!!;'t-'~~ing
in the $7.3 blllion purchase of rival
1997 .11 .20 .34 .38 1.03 Champion IntemaUonai. completed in late
1991 .25 .29 .25 .21 1.00 June. IP has demonstrated notable pro1991 .08 .24 .46 .55 1.33 fidenc:y in absorbing acquired businesses
-2001 .ID
.60 .75
.ID
JP
US t h'

of
.as
..
.ss
J.5D
us IBr. an d we beU eve integration
QUARTBU.YDIVIIEHDSPAD"
Champion wiU proceed according to fonn.
.~~r lIu.31 Jun.30 $e1l..3G Dec.31~:: Management identified potential merger
f."'""--+"~,--,,,,,,,,,-,,,,,=-,,,,,,,,'t-':7.'-Isynergies
and cost savings in excess of
1196 .25
.25 .25 .25
1.00 5425 millton. Assuming these materiaHze,
1997 .25 .25 ,25 .25
1.00 the transaet10n should prove accretive to
1998 .25 .25 .25 .25
1.00 next year's share-earnings. although we do
.25
1.00 expect some mod~t dilution this year.

= :~:~:~ I

46~

-'AImI,

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 cYAI.IlElJiEPIJ8,t:.
23.61 23.49 26.30 34..82 43.03 52.34
S9D7 56.411 55.43 55.23 59.44 75.85 67.10 66.50 63.62 59.21 1Z.3a
7UlI Salnpll"l11
211
1.Bl
2.15 3.46 5J2
6.46 616
5.OS 5.12 '.89
5.23 B.31 5.'2
5.19
'.86
5.00
6.15
7.15 "Cuhllow"""lll
!IT
.40
1.28
1.&1
3.29
3.86
324
1.98
1.67
121
1.73
4!i1l
1.49
1.03
1.00
1.33
US
1Jll EarnlnglpII"lh /Ii
.60
.60
.60
.60
.64
.77
.Bof
.B4
.84
.84
.84
.92
1.00 1.00
1.00
1.00
'M
,.II DM:ldllcl'd,.III"
'.82 '.14 2.1S
2.70 ,91
'.08 ,.n
,.32
,-"
3.BS '.42 5."
....
3.68
3.'2
2.15
-1"
I ""III
16.51 16..65 11.50 18.15 20.57 23.68 25.67 25.52 2523
25.12 25.81 29.81 31.13 28.82 28.98 24.85 ZU,
29M BookYaMpwlh
c
1".11

"TOt.RETURMtIDII

s.nswn

t~r::~~

~~~/~:;
:~~
plans to take a significant amount of mill
downtime in the quarters ahead. With
most competitors doing the same. though.
market share will likely be unaffected_ The
fall in aggregate supply ought to support
higher prices, more than offsetting the 1mpacts otweakervolumes.
Further, IP management continues to have good success in
trimming the fat from the cost structure.
These shares offer wide 3- to 5-year
tot aI -return. poten tiaI . Th e equJty has
been a fXKlrperformer of late, reflecting a
general investor exodus from th~ paper
sector. Asswning the global eoonomy remains on its current tac:k.. however, IP's
profits should grow nicely out to 20032005. rekindling interest in the stock.
Lars L. Bainbridge
October 13, 2()(X)

(AI Diluted enings. Exdtxl. nonrec:uni'Jg


~1.53~ '98, (23); '99, (~I '00 10. 32; 2Q,
near'" 15th of .... , Jun., Sep., and Dee..
Campuy's Fnandlll StrI1lgth
gans (d1.-ges): '84, ($1.00); '85, 27; '86,
(13). Nex! e;mingSl1lpor! due ... Janu~.
DiY"d rei1Yesin8rd plan evaia:bIl!.
SIDd:'. Price SlIbiIity'
~; '81, 8;"90, ($1.26); '81, ($228): '92,
(B) Nexl:divilend meeting llbell1 November 5.
Ind. nangibles. At 12131199:$4681 m",
Price Growth ~
(S2.53~ '93, (20); '94, (52); "96, (5); '91,
GOes ex abou1 Nov8rnW 20. CiY'ds pail on or 11.29. !II~. (D) In mil., IIdjuAed for spits. _eaml.
PrwdlctabiMly
CI 2mD, 'Mle I..N Pul:IiWwL ..
q riqNs __
. T8dllll ~
is oItIinef IIanI w:uns IIlIIielIeIIlll be nIiItR _ is pMIelI wlhoul. ~
d IiffJ PIll
THEPUBlI5lR IS fJT RE9'ONSIIll-ORNff
ERRORSOROIISSlONSHEREIN. Thi5ptiEaDtis!lldJ'
krUmbn own,lICIll~
iIIIl:mIII use. No p.-.
I
I
I '.
: II:
,,~ ... ,. ~ ~
:IllnlI1I" ~
ill.". priIelI. ~
II" dim' IomI, II" IIMIdb ~
1I".-toIIng q paM II" ~
1JIIbIi:*l, 5IWite II" puU:l

Ie)

B....
70
20
35
II'

Nil
INT'L SPECIALTY PROD. NYSE.ISP T~Cf 6.3 ~m17.5(~":~~~~~
1.19
IXV'D
YUl

High;
3 Ra6ed 11/WJJ
low:
3 ...,.,..., LEGENDS
6!>1"'t HW"p.
. .. - RdIIilrr PIu Slr15iJfI
TeCHNICAL 3 """"'''.
(IJlO ~ t.IalUt)
~d ~ iIbl!s

TIIEUNESS
WEll
IilE1J,

18.0

11.5

15.9
8.8

'.8
5.8

85

5.'

11.<1

13.3

'.0

65

18.5

11.5

20.5
'.6

13.8
7.0

'.3

_ .......

5.0

ltuBDl

200J.45PROJECT1ONS
Ann, Total
Price

I ... Galnll.\

"',111.

11,,11"11

,"

RdIm

r: ~~
I:~~~I
~

..liillllII'I\

Insider Olte.ion.

.,

,.I,I'l.Ji.;r' "

""I.

JF."'.JJAII
.. ..,

~.

001000000

g~ggggggg

"

..- .....

'. . ..

.. tot. RETURIll 1,1GD


n.s 1lLAIIII1L

IntBmational Specially Produels went public 19901J~~1992':993 1994 1995 1996 1997E199li,~L
on July 1, 1991 with the sale 0119.4 nillion
shares 01corrrnon stock at an offering price
01$15.50 a share. On July 15, ,998 tho firm
melg6d with its paren~ ISP Holdings. In thol--":':'-_.;;.j---'~-';~~:----;;+--'-;;'_-;;"'--,,.;;..j'---,.;rl---.':+-'-::+:~~~~rl--,~
transaction, 8ach share 01 the company's

~ooo 2001

3
2

!L~~M~.
0-:::

I-:==~!frjj~:j~jj~i~bi~i~~~pj~~~~~

common
Holdings, stod<,
was converted
other than ink>
thos8one
heldshare
by ISP
of ~
the sUlViving corporation. As part 01 the
15.1
".1
merger, ISP Holdings' ownership 01
.81
.19
..
..
80,500,000 shares 01 ISP was reduced to 1-~_"'::'-I-~---.,.~-I-~--,,~I--':':"'_-':':"'--,,"::"I-::"::"I-=-I-=P!.=:~~~4~~
53,833,333 shares (or 78%) 01the oulstand
181.4
8235
ing shares of the new entity.
21.8%
26.8%
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE UI of 1011.Il1O
1m! D.bI $938.4 mil Due in 5 V,. $430.0 mill.
L1 Debt $524.9 mil.
LTInterest $40.0 mil.
(Totall11Bnlst cavenge: 2.Ox)
(44% d Cap'!)

Lases, UnCipitaliDd Annual renlills $9.9 nin.


PId stock None
Common stock 66,271,764 shr.L (56'" of Cap'!)
as of 111101DD

65.1
64.1

64.9
49.6

50.4%
1.8%

35.1%

406.6
896.1
501.1
7.1%

12J%
12.8%

.-

92%
438.1
820.1
587.3
6.2%
8.5%
8.5%

..

IREcm

KAMAN CORP, NDQ-KAMNA


3 ....,,.,."
3 ... ,m..

lWEUIIESS
WID
llCHNICAL

3 _,_

High:
low:

IPRICE

14.9
7.6

9.5
6.0

LEGENDS
B.D I CI5h fIlM'"

9.
7.'

10.8
7.0

12.1
8.8

11.1

13A
10.0

8.'

13A

20.'
12.0

0.'

20.'

Target Price Ran",


2003 200. 2005

15.3
8.8

16.1
10.1

13.0

50

p!lh

KP. .Ill (1 m Ibrut)

2QOJ.45 PROJEffiIlN["
Ann' filial

~~rJ=I ~i.-~
o0

J f A II .,I .. A
.. ..,.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CIpIiIIM 000000000
IISIII 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
InatltuUanal Decisions

It.,.

0.

143~

I ~

57 P.n:ent

40

sh.r-Ii

1423~ t.-.ct.d

1~

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988


31.62 32.38
33.88 40.28 43.03
121
1..36 1.41
1.94
2.05
1.00

1.11

.22

.26

.62

6.12

1.16

.30

6.99

.55
7.88

11.3
~2

13.1
.89

20%

2.0%

21%

.a

7.

8.9
.83
2.4%
CAprrAl

1.42

1.37

.16
~
8.97
1 .55
12.8
.88

.42

10.9
.90

2.7%

"

..".

".

3.0~

~}f.

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
44.02 4$.34
42.63 43.26 43.80 45.08 ~.6t 5G.61 50.64 42.48 42..56 45,.'" (f.91
1.18
1.80
1.61
1.10
1.61
1.55
1.55
l.n 1.53 1.73 1.93 1.1IJ 2Je
.48
1.06
.93
.95
.95
.83
..86
1.06
.91
1.23
1..31
1.57
,.
.44
.44
.44
.44
.44
.44
.44
.44
.44
.44
.44
.44
,.u
-OJ

1.13

1.19

.62

.<l

.68

.81

.'7

...

8.07

8.52

9.13

12.25

13.07

13.68

KI5

14.0
.73

101
.58

10.61

25~
1.98

7.1
.53

3.5%

DLltil5Yrs$11.4ml.

leBes,Ul'ICIlp/tlliDdAnnuall8l'lalsS12.1
mil
Plnsion Lilbiity None
pfd Stock 110118
Conwnon Stocll23,200,OOOshs.
(93'" ofc.sp~
22,532. 186CIilss A; (non-wting); 667,814 Class B
('''''ol
MARKETCAP: $300 million (Smlll CIP)
CURRENTPOSrrlON
1191
1191 II30IDCI

..,

"""38

11.07 11.511 9.46


1Dlf 1Dlf 1B:lO 1B1Ir l[lI!f

.68

10.00

9.4
.60

'0.3
.62

,.

11.1
.86

lU

, .

.78

'0.'

15.9
~2

.86

5.9%

5.1%

4.5%

4.2%

4.6%

3.8%

4.01

3.3%

-~

n8.5

782.9

792.5

896.4

948.1 1043.4 10lE.O

9842

8.8%
1,.

81%
13.6

6.1%
13.'

5.6%

819.2
'.7\

6.1%
124
23.6

8.5%
'20
32.1

10Jtl
Ull

'15
13.1
127
192
17.0
17.4
16.1
18.9
19.6
41.3% 40.1% 40.1% 44.1\ 36.6% 40.1'
42.01

2.8%
'.6%
12.2

23.1
42.2%

2.3%

2.2%

2.2%

2.0'>

2311

21%

2'%

21%

210.3
1232
193.1
7.6%

199.1
102.1
202.2
6.8%

212.6
100.9

149.8
38.0
228.3
7.1%

146.1
37.4
203.8
8.7%

198.6
66.4
214.3
8.4%

238.5
83.9
228.1
9.1%

275.8
29.il

10.0'>
5.8%

6.4%
.4..4%
41%

6.3%
.4.5%

7.0%
.4.5%
52%

9J%
.4.9%

9.1%
5.0%

62%

fiO%

10.3%
6.8%
51%

42'

209.5

6.7%

4611

29:1.0

8.3%
6.0%
4.3%

53%

2.6'

.........
~

B25.3

,n

6.211
11.1

15.4
2.5.2
916

-0.5

.:m..

21.5

IC... '~

12.45
_

"

11.7

AV;AnIl'lIY'dYilkl
1e75 R...........
7.011
, ..

1I

A.. Ann'PltRdo
R_
PIE Rdo

I'.""

cVALUElJlEPIJB..~C.
RnlnUIIl*1h
51JIl
-cuh~ .. sh
2M
EIn*IsIlplnh
A
l.I5
DlY'dIDld'.perM II.
.44

1US Ica'Mltp

. 12:1ll

,3>

~ ....
=

"TOt RllaU'DD
1yr.
'yr.

IT 1!Urn!: $1.6 mil


Ind. $24.0 milliDn 6% sub. debs. r12) BlCh cv. inD
ccnmon It $23.36 per shM!.
l7'" afC.p'~

!lopodIb1""'

30.0
37.5
:JiU NIIProIl~)
40.4% 38.1% Kft
:JI.5I IncaIITult*i
2.2%
3~%
U%
1'"
N.. _......
287.5 291.7
315
3$GI WOltklgCap'fSnllJ
28.2
26.5
15.,
3U Long-T.,. DIbl ~
---_ - --.:-- ~~~_~.309.5 316.4
.135
3M Shr.BXIIlVISmilI
9.1% 9.8% 1D.J% 'US Rnmon TotIICIp'
9.7% 10.3% lUll
lUll R.......
Shr. E....
6.9%
7.1ft
U%
1.5'1. Rminld1DCalEq
32%
32%
21%
21'1. AJDh'dltDNIIPruf

'''...

2,ft
1%15
7.lll
1"

.us

.J&B
1111

475
!U
M5
US

'.51l
7.$%

2ft

BUSINESS: Kaman Corporamn aper.des n tine busiIess segIIMInts. Mtl5p8C1t (84% of 1999 opentng ptJIl) Il'IlnufaclLnllnd
rMDrlls helicopbn and ~lfIt
parts b gcMKTIIT"8ntand mmmllCial mliWtBlS. The Indushill DistributiJn Il!lglTIl!Int (5%; 28%..
1998) dislribules I1Ip1acemerrtparts b I1dusDI.I madlinIIy. The
Music DIliiM.Dn MTJ8nl (11%) manufacllDS QrIIbI guIn

Ind disdlu11lS other musical i1snmBnCs. 1999 depl8cill:iDn rZa:


1.2%. Has 4,016 empII:Jy8es and 6,522 slvtlllh. orIian Ind Ol'ec'
lets Cl:If1tIOI 3% 01 Class A corrrnon, 51.6% of Class B corrrnon
(3IUl Prw:y). CEO & Pnsidenl: Pillul R Kuhn. Chainnan: Cha18s
H. KImIn. Inc.: CT. Addr8Is: 1332 8M His AVIII'IUI,BIIxmfiIk:I,
Cl 06002. TIl: 860-243-6307. krt8n8t www.kaman.com

three
Under
ANNUAL RATES 1::'
P.. st Esl'd 'IT.'II
this add-on contract. worth a potential $98
~c:rut'ml
.5%
5Y~% to~~
million. Kaman will supply components
''Cash FkJw"
-1.5%
1.0"
and subassembUes for Boeing's Une of
EBmi'lgs
1.0%
5.5%
1.5"
commerclal
aircraft,
ranging from the
8.0%
models 737 through 777. The new pact
also contains an additional threeyear opCII~~~~~fS~1
::~
tion.
1b1s comes at a time when orders
.ndar
throughout the commercial aircraft mar1911 151.8 249.9 269.9 271.8. 100.4 ket are picking up, as Boeing boosts prod1.
239.1 247.4 249.7 269.8 1006.0 uctlon levels. We expect the increased
249.8 256.4
246.7 251.8
242.6 261.1
245.1 Ill3a
9&4.2 demand to remain intact next year. More_1.
250.0
2011 2f5
2f5
2m r15 1015 over, Kaman ought to benefit from the
recent trend of the industI'y's original
"""
U.,.3EAR111lGS
Jun _ PfR
, S;';SHARE
..30 :-'31
FilII equipment
manufacturers
outsourcing
endu
-....... Y.r more of their components.
1997 .08 .28 .29 .32
.97 lWo international orders
for naval
1.
.29
.31
.31
.32
helicopters are slated for an early
::
.30 .'ll
.34 .~
l.57 ~0lI1 delivery. Australia has ordered \I
2001 ~
~:
~
:.cz 1.10 of Kaman's retrofit model SH-2G Super
eal- QlJARTERLYDMJEMlSPAIJ..
Full
Seasprite copters, and New Zealand is set
endar .1,.31 Jun.30 SlnJO DtcJ1
r.r to receive five units. One of Kaman's subcontractors
on the Australian
program
,.
.11
.11
.11
.11
.44 recently announced it has incurred higher1991 .11
.11
.11 .11
.44 than-expected
costs related to providing
the SH-2Gs Integrated Tactical AvIonics
2000 :11
:11
:,1
:,1
System. and has requested a pricing ad-

Justment. This may result in a slight delay


in delivery. but shouldn't hurt Kaman;
furthermore. the New Zealand project. is
unaffected by this deVelopment. Additional
overseas orders for this flagship product
are highly likely over time. but are diffi.cult to project. due to political and eronomie considerations.
In the meantime,
Kaman
will look to its Aircraft Structures
and Components business. as well as its
Industrlai
and Music Distribution
seg_
ments, to smooth revenues and earnings.
The strong economy and an imnrnved
r- _.
cost structure
are helping the Industrial Distribution unit. In the months
ahead. it should continue to benefit from
higher capacity utilization. as well as the
effectsof a late-1999 restructuring.
TIlls stock is ranked 3 (Average)for
Timeliness.
However. Its dividend yield Is
above average. Moreover, the recent sales
and margin improvement at the Industrial
Distribution segment. and the strengthening aerospace parts business are enrouraglng. but any upside to our long-tenn eanlings forecast would llkely come from unanticIpated orders for naval helicopters.
Todd A Schwartzman
November 3. 2000

Ca~~
Reallvables
~nIory
(FIFO)
Cunni. Assets
Accts f"ayable
Debt. Due

=nt

65.1
2132
20~~
5'i'[3"
51.6
4.8

76.2

63.2

156.2

199.0

1~:~
460. 1
-48.8
4.5

1~:~

487.1
53.8
4.1

lli'~ ~~:~~~~yKaman
recently extended. by
~~~~ Liab. __ -=-~c-~:::..,.,..,::;:::.j
ears., a conb"act with Boeing.

=~~~:~B.:J

At~

. '.

1.119

10.01

'.0

..

.~ ~

STRUCTURE as of RI3MO

TotIIDebt$29.0mil
IT Debt $24.9 milL

I',

1--+--4..:J~p'-"'"C~~"",",.,,--f----------------+----+--+--+
.....

1Q2W1 JlRtH

33

----_.

,I I

,"

,I '"I

InakSer Decision.

I'

.,

1.11.1,

~=n

.~~ .~~ n

:::

(A) f'rmIry e.mings ttmogh '96, ttl8n di'J'IId. earnings report due late Jan.
Ck:t. DivUllnd remestment PIIn IMIilabia.
ExcUdes net ~
itIms: '93. d$2.58: (B) ~
dividend rr-eting lbout DIe. 1011. (Clln milions. adjusted b *de div'd.
'94,11$1.16; '91, $1.87; '99. dSO.26.8m! at '99 GC* ex ilbout Dee. 24th. Apprux. divtlend
qIrs. diftln fran FY tQ.1 due m roundilg. NeIt p&yr1'enl dn!s: 15th d J.n., Apri, July, and
2lm, YKIe li'Ie PIlbi5MJ!Io lnc. N. n;u (1l5II'Iell. fac1lllllllRllll
is obi*- Inn _
beIieIfed 10 be ra.tIIe SlII i5 ~
wlhaul ~
II! MY UIIL __
rHEPl.IIlUSWRISHOJR[SPOHSB..[J"ORAH'fE.RRORSORDMlS9ONSHR[IN.Tbi5~is""'IDr~~-'IICIfl~"naIl1K.fIlDp;lI1
d I rIWJ lit ~
!lInId II" hlI5JIed ill ." pW*d. dI:mIrE II" 1118 IrnIl. II" II5II!Id b
II" ~

w-ant

III)'

fIi'IIe'

tJ

ettdIri;

fId**Il. 5lI'b II" poUL.

Company's FIlwtcll.1 Str.ngtll


Stock'. Price StablIlJ

Price Gl'DWlh~
Elmlngs
I

PIWdIc:tabtIIy
I

I'.

8+
65

30
80

:11:

11-,

KAYDON CORP. NYSEKDN


I

TIIEUWESS
SAfETY
n:CHNICAl
IETA

4_ ....
3 ","""10
4 lDRItd 1tVmUJ

.90 (1.(1ll. MMtI)

2_

PROJECTlONS
Arm'ITcrtaI

Prict
GIIIn
50 (~~4~1

30

+45%

9.~
6.'

13.3

'.0

9.'

LEGENDS
...

~~~~1h

Hurl

5iJ.I

56

shs.

Stoell29,947,nO

uat_

~No

96.Z
662

Receivables

Othe.
CuTT8n1: Assets
AccIs P8)'11bkJ
DeblDue

i'D:Ie'J"

I.'ii'h,

'I'-

.. ...

.~P.~nt

5h.r ..

-.

IIr 111"1111.,.

- -- - --

40
32
2'

(81% or Cap'~

.""""
100.0

55.'

.... ........

.--

12

..

....

--

'2.6
54.2

45.S
592

--

..

.- ..

... -
S

.'

"" TOT. RE1lJRJI WDD

"" """"'
-15.0
15.4
'" ""'"
m ".2
3".
,,,.
50.3

. .~

131.5
151'
18.5'
15.4'

'13.8
19.1%
19..9%

13%

17%

97.6

1992
1993 1 !194 1995
5.29
.16 6.15
7.02
1.06
1.08
1.26
1.51
.7.
.80
.94
1.1.
.16
.19
21
23
.15
.17
23
20
392
4.11
.00 5.74
34.75 39.02 -mo 'W
16.3
152
1>3
n1
.so
.99
.79
.82
1.5% 1.1% 1.6%
1.3"
183.9
184.1 204.7 2299
29.0% 29.1\
29.5% 30.6%
10.3
11.2
10.6
112
:15.6 1/.7
31.2
382
31.'" 31.1% 3&0% 382%
15.0% 15.3% 16.6%
13.9"
11.8
86.7
85.9
91.4
8.0
13.1
8.0
8.0
136.1
18.0%
18.8%
15.0%

20%

143.8
17.1%
19.3%

166.6
17.9%

14.9"

14.7%

1996 1997
199B 19_
8.13
11.10 10.47
9"
1.89
216
2.65
~39
1.53
1.86
1.85
W
.:15
.30
J7
.211
.39
.37
.79
7.06
9.GS 10.19
3293 3~99
3U
31.10
132
14.5
16.5
16.4
J3
.84
.86
.93
1.1%
12%
1.0%
1.4%

."

.60

290.7 329.0
31.2'> 33.0%
11.1
12.8
50.5
61.7
38.'% 38.0%
17.4'1i 18.TY.
119.3

'.0
23~1

187.9
19.5%

21.4%

18.7% 20.3% 21.8%

23%

16.4%

18.-4%

19%

Zl%

143.8

..

283.6
21.8%
21.7%
18.5%

16%

316.2

BUSINESS: Ka)'don Corp. designs, manufactlll9S & Mis customangin8entd products, ilK:luding beari\gs, nt.rs. seal & piston rings.
Cooper Bearing!, ~1: Seabee, '95; VICb Fluid & 881b
Har
bar EngirMKmg., '96; Grairt Bend, Gold Stir, & PoI)t1'Mll, '97, ~.
dyne FlhtlOl'1, & Focal Tech., '99, and TOOiln Group, '00. Sales by
m..ut,
'99: reptllCJl!l'Tlent parlslexport, 31%; 80SpaaI
I mili1ary,

2001 ~AlUEUNEPJIl.~C.
11.15
lH5 SDsI*IIIIt
2M
2.70 "C.III Flow- pi!' sh
1.ID
2M E-nkIg. JIll" Itt A II
.43
A7 DiY'dl Dld"d per IIh C
.5D
.511 Cop'lSponang.....
f2.35 Book VaNe pw III D
1I.f5
JD.1D
:If." ICClIIIIIIDII Shs Dutsl'g
AVII AlIn' PIE Rda
R*tiYI PIE Rltlo
~
",YII Ann'! Div'd Y"1IIcI

...-

-.,.::

:115
!I.5l1
11.0 6_=11
Ita NtlProfl
37-'" IncorIIt Tu Ra1I
16.;'; Nil ProtIIllargln
17D W"",,". Cop'I!n1)
55.' ~~:.:
-I$noII)

325.1
32.2%
15.6
58.8
31.5%

J35
3O.5lI
18.0
55.5
!7.'"

18.9"
158.6
'.0

18.0"
151.4

16'.n;

311.7

22.8%
22.8%

317.0
18.5%
18.5%

,~"'

19.1%

1. 5"

33.1"

14.6
11.2
38.0"

15%

".0 Aal.
12.4

56.3
712

--

, '"

.... '

"

18

.--:'l":fl1i,'11

,-".

12..0

233.5
13.7

--

SO

14.9

16.5

0001

80

,~Di:tIJ

",
.....
.' .':!!.

61.0
12.1
211.6
11.4

2Za6

Taryet Pric. Range


2003 2004 200.

29.3
19.9

20

69.7
48.6

48.'

2.1%

YlD

41.1
23.0

60

22.9%

ca:'~1s

45.9
22.6

..

MARKET CAP: S625 million (Small Cap)


CURRNT POSrrlON
1...
1.,'

Inventory (FIFO)

34.9
20.9

24.8
14."

10'91

J J

0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0

15.8
lU

DIV'D

2-1ar1 spa !J!l2

58
",44 23783 24754
1991
Founded in 1941, Kaydon became a public 1990
company when n was spun 011from Baimco
'.65
'.93
Corp. in April 1984 in Ihe form of a stocl<-Ior1.01
1.00
stlck dividend (26,384,980 shares adj. for
.76
.7'
spns) 10 Baimro's stockholders.
()ffillllrs
.11
.13
and directors of Kaydon also purcha5ed an
.17
.32
additional 6,360,000 shares 01 stock at $2 a
3J1
3.97
share. On June 30, 1986, Kaydon acqUired
34.34 34.65
the Piston Rin9 and seal Div~ion of Kllp10.1
14.0
pers lor $29.6 milAon in cash. This sub~d~
.79
.89
alY was renamed Kaydon Ring and Seal.
1.3% 1J%
eAPn-Al STRUCTURE u of 9f3CWO
161.0
lGS.'
TobIl Debt $47.4ml
Due in 5 Yrs $47.4ml
30.3% 30.5%
IT Debt $47.4 mi
LT Interest $3.3 mil.
8.6
9J
(13% r1.Cap'Q
26.0
:15.5
Lases, Uncapitafiz:ed Annual rentlls $1.3 nil
362% 35.4'
Pension U.bllly None
1Sn
15.4"
62.8
592
PId stocll None
22.6
33.1

Conwnon

0 82

111(T"lng:IIJ~II8.A11VE

Iledi01:l1]
PUA110

12.6
9.9

18.0

It . , ..

48

~~,

11.9

11"

...
.....
" .. "

..,- ,

9.~
6.7

Rnan
28%

Insider Decisions
DJf.".
000
0 0 0
100
0 0 0
100
0 0 0
Institutional
Decisions

.....,.
....

High:
low:

Pf
lCENT
PRICE
21 llA110

..

22%

1711

185
5IJ.'
J35

fUll
.2.5l1

~.i.:..

3fII SIll.
"lnIIi
Rwm on Ta1aI
Ran
on Shr. EauHv
RIIafMd 10 CIft Eq
22S All DiY'dl1o NIt ProI

elp'

15-"'
17-'"

13-'"

113-45
17.20
115
115
.111

.70
1.. 5
f1l
J5
1.5l1
.75
32.",
2D.D
5IlI
31.(1%

11.0"

,za....

518
15.9
17.'"
11"'
fill

12%: spec. illduny,


27%; heavy musty, 30". '99 depr. rate:
6.7%. Has 2,362 elT'C)l, 1.224 Iilcllholdlilrs. Offs. & dils. own 1.9%rJ s1.t.; FMR Corp., B.O,,", NewSouth Cepital Mgml, 6.3%; (04100
Proxy). Chainnan,
Presi:len1 & CEO: Brian C8mpbeIL Inc.: DE. Ad
drass: 315 E. Eisenhoww
PiWbay, SuiB 300, Ann Nbor, Ml
48108. Telephone:
734-7.71025.
Inkmet WWW.liiaydon.CCIIL

Kaydon's
earnings appear
to
be IT staff to implemenl its new information
recovering.
a1be1t slower than we es- systems, as well as sales and marketing
Urnated in our previous report. After six personnel lo Jump-start. revenue growth.
1fT,.,
1013-15
5\'IL
consecullve quarters of year-ovet"J:ar
These measW'eS ought to improve the ops.1os
10.0%
14.0%
8.0"
''Cash Flaw"
declines. the bottom line grew modes y in erating margin by about one percentage
12.0%
HI.5%
8.0"
EarrWlgs
12.5% 19.0%
7.5%
the September quarter. Notabl' sales to point In 200 1.
Divi:l8l'1ds
9.5~
20.5%
1. 5%
the semiconductor, railroad. an specialty- The company's acquisition
campaign
Book Value
16.5"
17.0""
11.5"
ball markets were above last year's Is In full force, with the purchase of
QUARTEllLYSAW (Sill)
Full
C'"
depressed levels_ Also, the company's Trldan Group. comprised of Trldan In
Mar.Per Jlln.P.r S-;';.Per DKPer
stock-buyback program continues lo boost ternational, Indiana
Precision. and Can1197
76.S
329.0 share net; about 170.000 shares have been field Technologies.
84.4
13.4
84.1
Trldan
Group's product
99.1
1198
99.5
928
84.8
376.Z retired so far this year. However, sales to
lines include air-conditioning components.
l!1!lt
98.1
78.3
325.7
85.5
73.8
the construction. forestry. and mining tooling
for plastic-packaging
production,
;W
lOOO
84.9
81.3
B2.7
86.1
markets remain weak. AddItionally, soft- and lead-free solders suppUed to multiple
2QD1 lID.D
95., lID.D lID.D !15
ness In the offshore oU-drilling area has industries. These additions augment manEARNINGS PER SHARE A II
Full
C'"
been particularly disappointing; high oil agement's strategy of increasing product
l ..,
lIar.Per Jln.Per SelL"r DeePe
prices have not yet led to a rise in drllllng- and industry diversification.
1197
.42
1.86 equipment orders by offshore operalors . Untimely Kaydon shares have decent
.45
.47
.49
1998
.55
.51
~17
.fiT
.54
Accordingly, we have lowered our 2000 3- to 5-year appreciation
potential.
1!1!lt
.50
1.85
.50
.41
.44
markets and higher costs
Sluggish end
lOOO
.44
1.ID share-net estimate by SO.15, to $1.80.
.45
.43
margin
will probably continue to dampen pro8ta2QD1
.ID
.51
2.05 We are looking for operating
.54
AT
to improve next year. Elevated expenses billty in the next few quarters. But the
QUARTERLY D/VI)EHDS PAID C
CIIFull
related
to
fadl1ty
consolidations, company's ongoing acquisition program,
lI.r.31 Jun.30 S.p.30 OK.31 v_ infonnatJon-system
upgrades, and the dis- share buybacks, and greater effidencies
..
1916
.1l6
.06
.12
.2' missal of upper-level manageJ'Sat the Coo- should strengthen ea~
to 2003-2005.
..
1197
.28
.67
.1'
-'IT
.36 per Bearings subsJdiary are currently cut- Too, Kaydon's good cash ow should sup1998
.09
.09
.09
.09
1991
.10
.4ll tlng into income. Also. Kaydon is spending port. these first two factors.
.10
.16
.10
large sums of money hiring and t.ra.1n.Ing Michael P. Maloney
November 3, 2000
.11
.11
.11
.11

.......
Curmnlliab.

ANNUAL RATES
."

Put

Past Es1'd'97~'"

.....,

,-

.-

...

.....,

""".go -'

~ F"""
Sot -"with lhe u
...
Ie) ......,ExcL IKlIIrllCWTIIg t:aes: 1896,
~
day rJ..........
fIo r::alllndll' thoquMIr,
diU18d.
'92, $0.94;
cepIton rJ the Dealmbllr iscal quarter, whD! '94, $0.12; '00, $0 . 5. NBXt earnings report due
ends Dec8mIlII' 31st.
lirte Jan. (CI Nex1 div'd rrig. ilboul Jan. 30th.
o 21D1, VIU: lilt ~
~ 1158WllI. fldual ~
is otII.IinttIln:n SIIUIte5 bfiMllIla
be

THE I'UIIl.JSH[R IS NJT Rf


all...,br IlIpIIdlad. .-.sIll" ~

If

OR Ntt rRRORS

OR CNSSJONS

i1.., pi*d. -=nx

II"" _

HEllElil. 1IIis putiI:ilDI


II"" IISIld Ill" ~

bnL

Ir"_.....

pmn1.~:
Jan. 3n:I,Ooc.
Apr. 150'.
3n:I, JA,,,,,,,.
3nf,
3Rt. (D) Ind. intangibles. In '99,1'75.1
SH1/sh. (E) In mi., i!IdJ.for sIocIl spits.
r-.tR MIl is pvriIIed ....... WII1Mk5 Ill: ~

isllR::ly 1ar .....


II"~

IIIJ

1 0-1, r-..:caN
p-.II"

........

dIdftI'ic~.

use.
MI'iice

II""

"";
Oct. ~ smc~
mil,

DId.
part
paliEl

riceStabiily
Pr1c8 Growth Plirslltawcl
Eemlnp
PrMldabilty
I

, .,

80
65
75
:

II:

II ' ,

KIMBALL
INT'L 'B' NDQKBALB
4""",_
Hig~:l 11'~1
law:
8.1
LEGENDS

lWEUIISS

3 Newll21BO
3 """,,"11.

SAFETY
lECHNICAl
~

Z-llrr'~

35

13J

14A

21A

23.4

11.9

12.1

17~

"'1_"

'''II

.""

".'.
,

". '.
'.
j";

16'"
21 ah."'.
28

Pen;ent

8711

...

1,.. "1,11 1"11

.. ......

",-

..

.'

'

..

"

. . ....
'

...

.'

.,
..,. :.

s.a

,,~

...

"'_11'11")

So ...
"'Cash Flow"
Eal'TWlg3

....
,n""

78.0

,....

4.8
87~

4.7

Put

7.5%
8.5%
9.0,,"
8.5'4

-4.0%

9-5%
7.'"

Book Value

........
8-5"
10.0"

1U,,,

5.'"

.~%

....",

llllAR_YSAW~oAj'
E_ S.p.3D Dtc.S1 lIu 1 JunJO
1997 247.7 253.8 243.2 247.3
1998 245.9 264.'
265.0 256.9
1999 264.6 280.1 288.1 214.2
2000 218.4 294.3 309.5 318.7
2001
:J4ll
:uo :us J2Il
fisClIl
EARhIrtGS PER SHARE A.
Y., Sop.5O
lltCJl MIIJt Jun.3D
E_
.36
.99T
.33
.36
.35
.31
.37
.33
.31
1999
.31
.34
.37
.36
.33
2000
.29
.30
.29

Y.,

I.

lOOt

.J4

......
CaI-

I.

1997
1998

.199
2000

.35

36.4
62.2
223.4

&rcl'lBo'OO

u...

7.5%

5.'"

6.511
F
F_'

Y-

992.0
.032.3
1107.0
1200.9
1285
Fu'

.IT

.J9

QUARTERLY DNl>BCD$ PAIl C


lIu.31 Jun.30 Stp.3D D8c.31
.13
.115
.115
. 3
. 13
.145
.13
. 6
.1l
.16
. 6
. 6
. 6
.16
.16
.16
.18
.18

....

""".J:'J

flMlibn; fumlln alITIponents; .00 stlt8 b1lAS (n sggregal8


rv~
S9% of '00 sales). Also prndlI::es eIIIctronic conne:t
auntlIes, prilwiy supplyilg the h.ntpcdation, CDIl'lptMr, .....

""'4"f3]
.02.8

85.9

153.2

Dividends

30.'

388.3

,-,
Y.,
1.40
1.32
1.38
1.21
1.45
Full

YA9
.5l

.62

"""1tf
.64

CI 2lDl. VaW l..e ~

AI ~

THEPtlBUSI-I:RIS fl)T R[
II! III'IJ

lie ~

...

III" ~

,,".".
,,,.

2000
2001
30.61
311S
235
12
1.45
.18
1.",
1.16
tiO
11.51
11.94 111S

2S.1l5
216
1.32
.60
1.00
10.89

21."
237
1.38

16.1

1<1

... ...

...

... .....""" -

"" TOT. RE1URII WDO

,,,,5

.n

~.O
""'"
-7.a

252

47.0

81.6

C VALlIEUfjE P1J8.IlC.
s.I .. ~1h A
OCuli_p.nll
EnkIgI pIf Ih 11..
Dlv'ds Dld'd pIf III C

~'"
s

.op~~apor

..

.......

Book YIIuI per'"

A'1IAn.'1PiERMItIft PIE Rdo


AvU Ann' Div'd Y"lIId
1285 SoIosllnll)

91
3.7%
28%
3.9'
10323 1107.0 1200.9
10.311 10"
9.2'1\ ~o
33~
39.7
DoprKI_I"'1I)
"3.B
55.0
55.1
48~
~.o Not ProIlI"'.11
34.9% JI-'" nccn.TuRdi
31.'" 36.9'
4.0'4
4.41 Not_M ....
5J'4 60'
259.7
217.7
190.1
19lJ W_a CopT1"'11)
19
1.7
2.8
28 LongTorm 00bI IImIII)
448.6 464.3 468.5
49IJ ShI.-Equl1y(~
12.2'1\ 12.0% 10.3'
".5ll RftIm OIl ToIII Clip'
III S1w. Equl1y
12.31
.2 ....
10.3% ".5ll R_
6.4%
4.9%
RmamMi to ten Eq
8.'"
441
411 All DlY'ds to NIl Prof
53'

....

~'"

46'

1'eS8rlllI. Fm.II

4
,

15.4

DJ.4l
41.45
115
121

..

tiS
15.1S
:JIJ

I~'
.15

111
1555
11.'"
55..

...

31.01
~1%
15ll
11

...

,.'"
..'"
14.01
3ft

dlfenU, lIdusn.l ctlfmIts, arxl medi::M indlJl..


hi (31%). Fcnign opemIi)ns: 8% rl '00 sam. Empbyl10,0483.
01&. and dO. awn 34.4% rl CDs A aoo 15."% cI Cms B Itodt
(9100 Proxy). Chalman 1100CEO: DCllIgIi!s Habig. Ya::e-Chalmiln:
Thomas Habig. Pnis.: JiI'T18I Thyen. lIE.: IN. Addr.: 1600 Ro)'lll St,
Jasper, IN -47549. PIIxIa: (812) W-1600. Web: www.kinbe.lmm.
amnunCatOn.,

Oct (CI_
d""'"
'-"Il .bout Dec. tElOIIIU.
cOos.
-.
""" for .... """"'" '" tho SIDell"
Comp~riceF ....
dol_g6l
101h.Goes8I.bout
Dee. 2.5ttJ. Dividends pad
Voting WIor- manrn is li'nllld rnailly
StlblIIly
on II'" near the 15thcI Janll.-y, Apri. July, Oc- toCOMOlilatD'l, merver, CI'" dissaIlrti:Jn. EntiIlId Priel Grawth Plirs....
due_. (DI"
for.pIis.
"21_._
""" lh" COOS..
~~

ill..,

32

20
20

We are cautiously
optimistic
that
manufacturing fadlltles, one located in InKimbaU's corporate net will jm~
diana and the other in Thailand. and bethis 6scaJ year. The sustained recovery gan constnJctlon on a third in California.
in office furniture demand, for one, ought Last month, the segment also acquired a
to sUpJXJrthigher profits for the core Fur 40,OOO-square-foot plant in Poland. Alnlture and Cabinets segment (which gen- though start-up costs and related ineIDerates ~Proximate:&: 7096 of consolidated ctendes may dampen near-tenn operatin9
sales).
rder tren
at the other bust- margins, the Investments should ylel
nesses also portend better IOp-Uneresults. substantlal returns further downfield.
Additionally, management appears to have '!be development of new offerings reresolved the cost and effidency issues that mains an integral corporate strategy,
aimped eamings In the latter half or flscal
which should allow Kimball to capture
2000 (ended June 30th). Rising prtces for market share in the quarters ahead. Moreenergy and raw materials continue to pose over. management has indicated It will
a threat to results. as do competitive prlc- heighten attentIons on augmenting its llne
ing pressures in certain markets, but. in of furnishings Corthe health-care and lodgaggregate. we estimate Kimball will post a ing industries, in an effort to counter comdouble-digit sharenet gain in fisc:aJ 2oo} .
petitlve market conditions in those sectors.
Untimely Kimball stock offers worthA slew of recent
C8jtaJ projects
should provide 8 good oundation for while 3- to 5-year total-return potenlong-term advances. KlrnbaUcontinues tial. based on our expectation Cor steady
to Invest considerable resources to en- eanlings advances over that horizon. But.
hance its production capabilities and ex- there is little need to rush on ooaro. Given
tend its reach. with an emphasis on devel- the company's lackluster performance in
~
a global presence. The Electronic the recent past, It will likely require severntract Assemblles division (responsible al quarters of favorable earnings mmparifor the remaining 30% or Kimball s sales) sons to resuscitate investor sentiment .
recently mnunenced operations at two new Lars L. Bainbridge
October 13. 2000

(A) '''''''
..........
8W!fi1ga slaes Itmugh '97, d
ther8llft&'".
EICiJde. one-1ine iIlemI: "92, 3; 1M, 3t!; '96,

d!il;'9T. ~; .... 81. NUl ""' .. ' ......

'"
12

~.

2.'

.,

26.'

L1ab.

200.

16

'.:

... ,...

Cu~rrt

RZllnge

200_

- -

..,

"~'",

...

-412.9
60 .

..

'".

ANNUAL RATES

2003

..,

00""""

TBl'gltt Pric.

10

29'

00.-

4.3%

18.3
10.8

"1,'"

199_
1987
1988 1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
199.
19.1999
1980
1985
1986
8,16
123.
1. 04 1H6 13.13
19.43 2t33 22..9
23.95
1.49
8.59
11.09
17.06
121
1.32
2.20
.95
1.10
1.57
.21
1.48
1.37
1~1
1.70
200
.14
.94
.81
.70
1.03
.71
B9
.n .83 .99 1.13 1.40
~1
.81
.2.
~
.1S
25
29
.33
.'l5
.39
.42
.43
.48
.12
.13
.15
.16
.49
.16
.81
1.10
.82
.79
.8lI
.Iff
.38
5.83
10.21
. 16
4.68
.22
6.59
6.96
1.16
7.81
829
9>9
320
3.7"
8."
1.
4l.1'
1
11.9 'O~
19.0
1<1
132
ILl
10~
14.0
129
m 121
10.'
1u.'
J2
.99
.79
.76
.16
.96
.85
.8lI
.78
B9
.78
1.12
1.15
.85
3.4%
2n
22%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
2.''10 29%
21%
2.al1
3.3'
3.'%
3.5'
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE u of IJ3GI'IIO
613.0
611.3
122.4 822.. 895.9 923.6 992.0
555J
Du.b"l5Vrs$40.7mil.
Total Dl:bt $41.Dml.
14.51 11.61 12.1% 10"
.1.0'4 11.5'
10."" 10J'
LT Interest $.2 mill.
LT Debt $2.6 mil
33.4
23.0
23.6
25J
21J
28.7
30.1
36.1
11% ",c.ap~
Prindpslly capdallllases.
41.0
51.7
43.5
30.0
37.4
30.8
35.0
41.4
38.8% 38.9'
36.31 .2.6111 41.1" 41...51 39.6% 34....
Luus,
Uncap/biDdAnnUlI
",nlals $5.1 mil
Pension Liabllfty None
1.1%
61%
43l'o
4.8%
61%
58%
4"
161.6
m.4 194.7 195.4 186.0 201.1 220.3 243~
PM Stock None
2J
89
4.4
32
2.0
.8
.9
3~
Common Stoe1 39,287,389 shlll'8li E
279.4 284~ 321.1
333J
351.0 371.3
391.0 422.8
14,162,346 C~IS A
15.31 10."
11.6\
9.3% 10.01 11.2'10 11.91 13.6%
25,125.043 Class B
(99% rI CaP')
15.6% .0.2'1\ 11.8%
n Dfll31toO
.0.0'4 112% 12.01 13.71
9"
MARKET CAP: SI25 million (small Cap)
11.3%
5.61
6.4%
7.1%
8.6%
HI ".91
'2%
CURRENT POSI11ON
0I3GIII0
38%
43%
37%
4S'4
52'
21'
'1%
41'
131.8
84 .
BUSIIESS:
Kinballn1emltOnaJ,
Inc. tUI1uractUl1lS and m;DIIts
c.a~~
172.8
119.1
180.9
ReceiViilbia
'322
otri::8 imhn .1'Id selling UI'lCW 1Wtllr~ NBtOw( and Hai'pBrs
117.1
".2
~rrtory (LIFO)
".3
brands; oIIc& fumitIn S)'SBns; I1ospita~, heallH:in, and hcm!I
2-4.7

Currvnl Ass8ts
A/:;d!JPayable

21.0
14.6

24.9
14.9

:;VII1'"

:n0

IIIY'D
YlD

PA:RATIO

I,

000202100
o 0 0 a a 0 0 0 2
1 0 0 0 000
0 0
Instttutiol1lll
Decision.

~.
... ..

Will:

50

..

IfDJFIIIAIII,IJ

22
'713

16.3
10.7

.u~J~

25
+55%
Insider Decision.

28

10.5

17.3
12.6

113eroiql~~r'TM 081

1Z1J1

"C:;;...

(i1~1 24"
15%

.....""...,
.==-.., ....~ ,-"

11.8
8.ll

PA:
RATIO

P SI

Reun

GIin

14.1

16

2:";":' ';'i~ Slrfngll

.7S (l.oa.N.ut)

12.~1
7.6

8.D I "t.lsh f ....

2OOJ.4l PROJEC11ONS
Am,ToIIJ
I"rtce

l~ctMT
PRICE

m""",.""""
iI;

lIIIIlIIiIIlIlIlIa!I __

bdiIM:d

SIIIlE ORNtr [RRORSOROMIS!iKlffSH[REIN.1hil.~i5


pIi*4 *:lhIit II d/a' bItL .. IIMIIIb ~

10

be'"

sftIyb~-,IDl
my ~

0: ......

lilt is

prOl'idMl .....

II" ~

~
II! ~
.. till i115m1115e.

fl'IIIkab1.

SfJ"lke

(I"

tnd.
~
pruM1.

I',

: II:

...70
30
II

LEAR CORPORATION

I~~ENI

NYSE.lEA

High:
Law:

LEGENDS
...

4.5. "'Cull F....

~PrEtSliS1gU1

22.1
16.0

25.3
39.3

32.'
16.e

51,7

33.3

Nil
57.8
29.8

36.3
19.3

53.9
28.8

il/I

. _~s,~
'C:.'"

--

,.

2003-45 PROJECTIONS
Ann'! Tatal

:g
~

I5~J+~3~25~%~J"~"L~=t=~=~======~::~~~~~~:::==~~~jr~~
+
j-_+_-+

-'t~~~

Law
55 +175% 2R
Insider
"'~h... DKlsmns
N D J F II A II J J
.. Illy
200100000
o,w. 000000000
.'_1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

,,

~_+-_+_-+

~30
15

+~c...:,;"'L:-

. ; ... - .. ,

.......

'.

10

....

I--

"'TOt.RI\RM~

",1,,,

'MS

ft.AII1H.

-48.1
-54,5

15.2
36.1

Z12

106.1

.......
1 YT.
3)'1'
S yr.

75
.

r-l-

Lear Corporation is the successor to a


seat frame manufacturing business founded
in 1917. The CUlTentcompany began lljlllrating as an independent, pu~~ly traded corporation in April, 1994. Sinal 1990, ~ has ~"':':'-_"':':'-.j-"':':'-_"';;'.j-";;'-";;'.j-";;-~";;"---,";;-hr.i-h~hrn-JT.;m;:;;;~""':-+-ir.-J
completed numerous 8CXluisitions, induding
Automolive Industrie~ Masland, and the
seat bu~nesses of Fiat, Ford, Saab, and
Volvo. Since the initial offering of 9,375,000
shalOs, the company has used debt to fund
its acquis~ion program, and equity to I-c...:,:---.::.:..j._.:..:.._--:..:+-.....::-_:..:...j_.:..:.._--:..:_--.:-+_:..:...j __
refinance its debt load, the rrosl recent ex~
ample being the July, 1996 offering.

t=====~ii::!::::i!~bj:j~j:bilitt:!ij~~:~~t
+-_-+::!..:='-=':.:..:=_j--=~

Leul'S,UnapltallzedAnnual
Pension liability None
PfdStodNone

renlals $48.7 mil.

CommonStoct64,507.349shs.
(33" of Capl)
MARKET CAP': $1.3 billion IN cap)
CURRENTPOSmDN 11911 1.
7/1100

11IIlL)

~~":i::

13~:g
349.6
444.5
2198.0

(FIFO)
Olher
CurntntAssets

tnventory

1=:~
m.3
603.9
31542

21i~:g
04952
620.8
33204.6

10704.9

12204.0

16gg1 ~~J2~:~

~16M:;:rabie
Other

797.5

..

..

..
.
-..

..
.
..
..

..

---

..

..
.

.
..

0121
NMF
NM'
d722
496.3
43.2
3.51
NMF

--

.-

--

..

..

..

56.1 920
59.8
941
48.0% .1.3%
'-ill
2.01
d182.9 <168.1
418.7 1038.0
213.6 !I8O.0
12.5% 8.110
28.0\ 162\

NMF 28.0% 162"


..
..
..

"23
151.9
40.'%
2~%
d15t.9
1054.8
1018.7
9.8%

'''.~
2<il.2
41.~"
2.1%
01239.1
1063.1
1207.0
11.3%

3409
257.1
39.3\
21%
d3331
3324.8
14&1.3
7.8%

172%

219.7
2<il.O
38.6%
2.3%
d299.'
1463.4
1300.0
9.4%
16.0\

14.9%
14.9%

172%

16.0"

17.5"

..

..

..

..

BUSINESS: Lear Corp. Is the largest noependenl fully irWegralec:l


autOlTlJlive illllriJr supplier i'I the wortI. II devebps, manufactures,
and natets: sealing systems, door parM* and headlirMn; fDor
and aCDustic lystBml. and oIhel" irtwD components. Acq. FcnI
NA ual bus., 11193; Filii seal bus., 1Z194; AI, 8195;
7196; EknaIis, 12196; Ke~, 7(97; Delphi sealing bus., 11196;UT

Masland,

Corporation's
profit growth will
likely slow sharply in the second half
of ZOOO. Bolstered by strong vehicle pnxlSales
-- 18.0% 12.5"
uctJon and contr.lbutlons from acquisUJons.
the parts maker roared out of the gate this
Dividends
-Hi
year,
posting
22%
earnings
growth
Book Value
046.5% 15.0"
through the June quarter. But heading
C.lj.
QUARlERLY
SALES
IS.)
Full Into the summer. we suspected that the
.ndu
lI.1tP.r Jun.Per SIp.Per Dec.f.
Yu.r company would have
a difficult time
1997 ln4 1839 1636 2144 73(3 sustaining this torrid pace due to tough
1911 2032 2175 1947 2905 9059 year-over-year comparisons. And In recent
1999 2687 3234 3047 3461 12429 weeks, Lear has guided Wall
Street's ex2000 3805 3761 I11Q J!l4 1.f1OQ
pectations even lower, dting adverse cur2001 3115 3TS J25fI ITS
14&15rency movements (continued deterioration
C~
EARNlHGS PER
SHARE
A
Filii
in the euro, a strengthening
of the peso)
endar lIIar.Per Jun.Per se.\Per DeeP.
Y.r
and recent production stoppages for the
1997
.62 .90 .53 1.00 3.05 Ford Explorer and Ranger (related to the
1991 .69 .96 .32 1.09 3.06 Firestone tire recall). In response, we have
1999 .75 1.10 .58 1.37 3.80 trimmed our 2000 eanlings estimate, now
2001 .93 1.33 .55 1.44 05 at $4_25, by $0.20 a share.
2001 1.00 US
.m 1.15 4.'" We are also taking more cautious
CoiF- QUARTERLY
DJYI)EHD$ PAID Fall
stance toward 2001. culting $0.10 (to
endu lII.1f.31 Jun.30 S~::'-; Dec.31Y
.. r $4.80) from next year's share net number.
1996
We expect Ford's difficulties should not be
1997
NOCASH
OrvK:lENOS
an issue in the December quarter. But the
1991
BBNGPAID
currency Issues wllllik.ely Weigh on results
1.
at least into the early part. of next year.
2DOO
Moreover, we have slightly reduced our exCUrMnt LJab.
249'f.5 3487.04 3771.04
ANNUAl..RATES Put
Past Eat'd'l7'H
ddwlgl(pl"'"
1UIL
n...
tD'U-'15

=:-'

..

(A) D~
e!IfI1ings.
EJlclldes
1IOIIfeC.
gail/(loss8s): "93, (331); '98. ($1.36); 'OOq2.
axhord. ch-ue; '97, 1,. NellI. earnllgs
repo1 due late ()Q)bIf.

(BJ FISILnSin 1993 and In! q..-ts of 1994 $48.21Ishare.


a-o p1l forma.
(DJ In millions.
(C) IlX:l'udesmangibles. In ~, $3211 miIbI,

-.t

..hmIriItd

~..,

pIiIeII. ~

1125
''is
US
1T.n;

3M
41.51
LIS
dJ75
ZJ2S
1155

l;I" .,.

bin. II tMlI far ~

II"

bIIIlIIinIlII]'

II"

ftIdri:

(lnl)

""'11....

11.3
1US RnainedtoConEq
Ifl
Ifl A11ll1Y'da ..... Prat

575
4IIIl
41A
2.35
0375
25lID
1715
'.51
1.(51
14.B

III

A\Itl., 5199. I.MpesI custlnMn: G.M. (29% of '99 111ft). Ford


(27%). Inn sales: 5',..
'99 dltp. rat8: 12.9". OperDs 234
faci_
in 33 COUnfts. Has about 121,000 1IIl'lpIs. 01. & Di. own
1.8% of a:mnon; J.P. Morgan, 9.4" (3100 puxy). ChlIinBn ani
CEO: K L Way. Inc. DE. Ad~:
21557 Telriaph Ro.:I, SouIhfBld, "148034. Tel.: 800-413-5327. 1nt!ImIIt: www.Ie . c:un.

~ ~OIl1pany'S Fnudll StrwIgItI


stock's PrIctI Stablity

-=:se~~.

Prb Grvwth ~

..

p-.t

0""-

NIIPlDliWI

ncor.TuRIM
...
W_ICap1Ilnll)
Lang~T
... D.bt(W)
SIIr.&uHv ISrlili."
t.5S RilUnonToWCap1
163
RlbnonSl.-.Emdtv

Eamlngs

~H~~~~~~S:U:~RI=R~~R~~~:m1his~~belorr:.=,sis~~lltiwl
d IIIII)' lie ~

d3IJIJ

pectatlons for light-vehicle production


next
year in the critical North American market to reflect recent evidence that the U.S.
eamomy is slowing.
Lear's
product
Jineup
bas become
mcreasingly sophisticated.
The company,
which for much of Its history was primariIy a seat maker, has been steadily expandIng Its expertise
to include virtually every
element of a car interior. nus has been accompllshed primarily through a series of
aa,ulsltions
since
1995, Including last
year's addJtlon of UT Automotive. a maker
of electrical components. In the wake of
this deal, about one-third of the company's
backlog covering the next few years now
consists of electronic equipment.
This stock. though
untimely. merits
consideration
by value-oriented
tnVe5-tors. Given current evidence of a deceleralion In the U.S. economy, we cannot rule
out further downward earnings revisions
in the coming quaner. Still. we think the
current valuation tnoorp:trates an espedally bleak view of Lears prospects, which
could make this an opportune entry point
for patlent investors.
Robert M Greene. CFA
October 6, 2000

Lear

::~1~~i~~

2Oj;

17.5\

..,
115
41.51
'-"I

pIltbIi:Il. ~

G pvdId.

50

P.-lic:tlbllIlJ

,',

B
eo
25

:11:

11_,

lItdiid.
LINCOLN ELECTRIC NDQLECO , I~ 16 PIRAm 82 (T1iIIog
5

TIIEUNESS

lo.... """'"

3 NslfJl9I
4 lllRlell mUl

SAFElY

....

-... ......... ..
....

DJF

i:';': 1

.....

~':e. ~

--

...
50

........

,I"

....

.'

.'
"

-35.0

..

..

lotll Debt. $1Q5.5m11.


LT Debt $79.3 miD.

Due m 5 Y,. $70,0 mill.


LTI,""rut $7.0 mil.
("~ of CoP'Q
L... su, Uncapitalized Annuall'l!nlal5 $62 miD.
Pfd Stock None
(85% of Cap1)
Cornmon StOCIl42,329,824 slls.
..... RKET CAP: $675 million (Small c..pl

.....

_.

39.'

........... ,

ANNUAl RAlES

Put
I' Tn.

..
...
..
..

Eam"';s

Dividends
Book Value

1991
1998
1999
2000

2001

1996
1991
1991
1999
2000

69.8
451.4

".6

26.2
166.3
248.'

~216.4
Past
IV..

..

Est'd'l1'19
~".

---.
--

..

8.0"
10.5"
10.5"

NI

13.5"

QUARTERlY SALfS {I oil!


Full
IIlr.31 Jlln.3D StpjQ Dec:.31 Y..,
260.1 299.6 291.6 m.2 1159.1
303.0 310.9 288.1 284.1 1186.7
2B2.9 213.5 265.9 263.' 1086.2
IIIflI
281.8 274.2 251.2
1f5
fl ..
115
171l
ZID
EARJlIjGS PER SHAIIE
FUll
"lr.31 Jln.SO SIII.SO DK.31 Y.,
.40
1.13
.43
.46
.44
.45
1.91
.46
.51
.41
.51
206
.52
.52
.'1
.56
.44
l.DIl
.54
.55
1.15
.51
.53
.SS

...

QUART8U.YDIVIJENDSPAile

C.~

.nd"

1".6
177.2

151.'

c.~
~du

....

""""'"
,....

21.9

13..
120.7
195.1

"Cash F!ow"

1991
1998
1999
2000
2001

56.3
426.6

436.8
605

CUlMnt Uab.

Cel-

170.0

167.8

DebtOUe

....,

'.7

'91.8
'''~
'3.3

00"

S.1os

,...

1'"

lu.3t
.06
.075
.10
.12
.1'

Jun.30 S .. .30 Doc.31


.06
.075
.10
.12
.14

.06
.015
.10
.12

.06
.10
.10
.12

.14

(AI DilJfed eIlmings. E.rclItfe3 IDrncamng


Items: '99, d8, llI2Q, 1511;3Q. 7~; 4Q. 4D.
Nul eami1gs report due mid-January.

~nrc:

c :KIlO. ~
liw
Tllf. PU9USl-R IS N:lT R[
III ~

~ ~

SIIftd

or.--..o'

Full

Yea,
.24
.33

.40
.46

15.4

25'
91.8

3~.

1.1'

CAPITAL STRUCTURE.as 01 mo.eo

.."

'~.-"-,

,I.'..

" .......

..

....
.....

'I.TOT. RE1lJRN lIDO


.'.

..

othe'
CullUnt Assets

,.
12

.'. ..

..

"

...

_/UFO)

18

JJA

..

Cosh ......
Rec:etvables

,.
2.

'''1-

'II'

Linron Electric began produdng electric 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 199~.
..
..
..
.. 20.14 22.35 23.55 24.68
molors designed by its founder, John C. Lin..
..
..
.. 1.83 2.09 2.31 2.53
ron, in 1895. A decade and a half later n in..
..
..
..
.. 1.32 1.50 1.73 1.91
traduced its first welding machin . In 1995,
.,
..
..
..
.. 21
the company recapilali2ed its common s1o<:l<
24
.40
.33
.,
..
..
.. 97
.inlo lIT... classes: lwo voIing (one of which
1.69
.76
..
..
..
.. 6.63 790 1.88 1021
was eliminated in 1997) and one Class A
"
..
..
..
..
49.62 4922
48.oe
non-voting. Th. Class A and one of the
.,
..
..
..
..
voting issues we .. listed .. parate~ on the
11.0
.4
9.6
11.2
..
..
..
..
.. .63 .60
.63
NASDAQ exchange in June of that year. On
.58
_.
..
..
..
.. 1.7'4
611198, Linooln oonverted its ",mmon stock
1.7\
1.9%
into a single voting dass by swapping two
..
..
..
..
.. 1032.4 1109.1 t1!l1.1 1186.7
shares of a new issue in exchange for each
..
..
..
.. 13.3% 12n 14.'" 14.8~
outs1anding voting and Class A non-voting
..
..
..
.. 19.7 19.' 29.4 28.1
..
sha .. (lITe.. by effecting a 2Ior-l spin).
..
..
..
..
.. 61.5 14.3 B5.4 93.1

32

"'I

(lIIlLJ

- - - --

- - -.

letnlioo

'""

,,,

CURRENT POSITION

T.198t Price Range


20<>3 20<>4 2005

24.4
0.0

Shriglh

000
0 020
0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
00000
1 000
h15tJtutiDIYII Decisions
101
'.n:tIlIt 12.'
33
3T
sh.res
45
43
:::'1
31 15402 '4391

15.8

Nil

lID

23.8
17.8

25.0
18.8

2'.2

Pra

&l98

AM' TGtaI

(+150'1.1
2.
(+55%
Insider Oecis~n.

17.9
".6

15.1
10.5

IIIV'D

I.EGENDS
}.S1[Itllln.op'lh

TECHNICAL
lITA .so l:I m ..Mln.~
2003-05 PROJECTlONS
Price

=-

High:
low:

)1~ElATNE
PI RAm 0 60

7!

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..

"

..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

.-

..
.,

..
.,

..
..
..
..

-'

..
..
_.
..
..
.-.-

15.9'

19.5%

""

16"

15.1%

15.9%

16"

21~

24"

38.'
"
7.9%

7.4~
249.0
>1.4
4372

241.7

18Il'

1.
A1
f.
l1.M

1<.15
U5
1.fS
iii
fA!
11f.

41."

...

IDfII
fs.sll

.D.'
IU
3I./IS
I./IS
150

Ill.

SalnperM
Cash Row- pi!' III
Eamin;s per III A
DWd. Dld'd per sIl II
Cop'I S".llling pr III
Boat ...... pII' Ih
ClnIIICIl Sh, Dutst II C
A__Wl AIIn'PIERRo
PIERdo

-,.,.tIt_.

Avg Ann' Div'd Y"..Id

11..
lUll
J5..

to.'

'=..~
Dopnda:;--.:'II

Nit Prolt
JS.DS blcaN Ta
Nil

llll

JfO W .....

IHII

1M
S44
lUll
lUll
lUll

nil

HI

47V
16',5%
11.SS

1.1

lD PUB .. ItC. 03-aI

~.-..:: :=

10861

16.3'

15.9"4

11.'"

10.15

".48
10.1
.58
2.3'-

46.1
490.9
18.0"
19.'%

36.S1

H25
l.1S

24.042
2.76
2.06
.48
f.42

16.3'"
19.1
93.7
36.0%
1.6"
210.2
472
451.5
19.3%
20.1'

37.0%
6.0%
6.11
188.4 213.1
64.2
93.6
:l3O.0 391.8
15.6'
18.6% 19.0"'

38~~

2000 2001

'~.
e VALUE

JgtI

g Cop' tlnlll

long.~::
Shr. Eq

~ J,I..-)
(SmI1I

RItum OIl lobi CIp'I


RItum on Shr. E~
RniMd ill Com Eq
AI DiY'dl1D Nn PraI

JUS

US
UIJ
iii
fM
21M

-140

.15
N//
14SI1
lUll
<3.D
lJD
JS.DS
'./IS
JIIIl

...

7V.D
15,5%
16..5%
fUll

Nil

BUSINESS: li1m1n Electric Hotlilgs, Inc.. produCeS a com~


siva MII8of wd:ling and alttng produds, malllJlachnd in one of
ltll'88 aJII1Iany owned Iaciities in the Unied States end 19 1Ibfmd.
Int:l!lrrIatbnal opemtions genendBd 38% of '99 sales. Acquied Bettronic W81dng Syst&ms, 1196; e mr*olliBg i'*nst It Indako ~
bys, Inc.. 3198; Uhrtuln & Schd, GmbH, -4198. Sold gas dlSiibu-

tiJn unil, '96; eIedrIc moas unI. 619!1. tt:ls about 6,400 empkJy
ees. David C. lincorl owns 14.6% of stx:Ir.; 0111
oIh.. otrDill'l and
di'"ecDs, 3.5%; ernptJyee 4Q1K plan, 3.1%: KeyCorp, 6.1%; Nauberger Bermln, 6.8% (3Ql pruxy). Chrmn., Pr8s., & CEO; AntJony
A. MaSSlR. Inc.: OH. AddrBb: 22801 Sl CU Avenue, Cleve8nd.
OH 44111. TeL: 215-4ll1-l1100. Int9l118l: www.li1c:cIeIllcn:..com.

Lincoln Electric's near-term eandngs


outlook is malTed by several factors.
In the domestic marltets, demand. is grad
ually softening due to a general slowdown
in Industrial aCtivity. MeanwhUe, unfavorable currency effects are crimping international results. Indeed. In the third quarter.
double-digit
sales growth abroad was reduced to a nominal 2% gain on the income
statement after translation into a stron~
U.S. dollar. A focus on redudng costs an
elevating production emdency
should
mItigate some of the punch, but we ~ct
sharenet comparisons will remain u avarable for the next several quarters.
The plarmed acquisition of rival Charter pic has been scuttled .. Uncoln
opted to not extend its bid to purchase the
London-based supplier of welding and gashandllng equipment when the offer lapsed
late last month. AJthough the specific reasons were not dIsclosed, in our view, the
asset disposals needed to earn regulatory
approval erased much of the allure of the
merger . despite a revision In the tenns
milllon. The
that cut the price by SI20
fatJed deal was not without costs. Assodated cUJTencyhedging losses pruned nearly

SO.03from thlcd-quarter share net, and an


additional $0.40 a share in various costs
are expected in the current quarter. (Note:
The board suspended the dividend due to
the offer. but has yet to review its polley.)
__. but external growth will probably
remain a prlndpal
corporate strategy.
Management has indicated it will resume
its hunt for merger candidates, with the
objective of strengthening its competitive
position and geographic presence. We expert it will target supplIers based in the
international marltets. which remain highly fragmented and seem ripe for mnsolldation. In light of the weakness in the indus
trial markets. the company might be able
to negotiate favorable tenns. Given Uncoin's solid balance sheet,. it can easily afford. a sizable deal or sedes of smaller
transactions without overextending itself.
TIlis stock. though untimely. offers
wide 3- to 5-year capital-gains
potenti.al. Provided the domestic economy does
not sink into recession, the CUJTenloperating problems should gradually abate. By
leveraging Its strong competitive position,
Lhx:oln stands to realize strong growth .
Lan; L. Bainbridge
November 3. 2O(}0

(SI Dividend suspended dill! tJ DI'I&r tD pur- (e) In"'*'"s,


dIase ChBl'lIlf pk:.. Has not )'81: ftmled dividQ/ld
policy siK:e merger plan was dropped.

memd. rllClUlllIIIteriII & DtIIIined

rn. Dfte5

ORNOr [RROllS OROMSSlONSHlR[Ir'. Thii ~


~." ...... 1IIPlllie. car. fonIL lIMIt b ~

r-..

iJr sptl

b*IIIlIIIlD be
MIl i5 pMIBI ~
~
i51h:1y lor tubSt:riorn -... ~oClI!lI!IaI:III
.......,
IIl1 pi1lIIl a IliIdlUK ~

CGIrIPln,.. Flnanc611 Shtrg(fl


Stock's Price S1abllltJ'
Price Grvwth Pel'lhtllnce
Eaminv- PrHictabilty
rllII:

ftIIMI ,,!oot. 0 pM
$II"lice orptOJI1.

I "

II:

..
60
9S

I I'

I~cm78

LITTON INOS. NYSELIT


1WE\KSS
SAFETY
TECHMCAL

-0

Low:

.'".
-..,

...".If!

"C'"

_i1dufrJlla!SSICIfI

12%
2%

+5%

'

71A

74.S

39.5

42.8

289

..... ,'..

-..
'"

"' ..'"

9.9
.80
~1%

.94
2.9%

1,.1

10.9

1.09

1.09

.83

..

..

Pfd Dlv'd $.7m~l


Pfd Stock $8.2 mill
328,520 shs. S2 cum.,Iiq. vaL $2Sish.
(L.essthan 1" afCep1)
Ccmmon Stock 45.5 mil. lIvg. sa. (54" rI Cap1)
IIARKT CAP: 13.1 bilion (1II1d-cap!
ZOOO 10131100
CURRENT POSITION
.199

AsseIs
AcdI Payable
Debt Due
0tI1Ir
Cunenl

Cul'Nnt

LilIb.

ANNUAL RATES

"_u-~I
s.1eI
''Cash FIaw"

E""*, ..

__

DIYi::lencls
BookVelue
fiacal

You

1997
1991
1999

2000

......
2lI01

You
E_
1917
1991

'999
2000

........,
2001

3D.7
659.1

......

32.1

162.6
1219.7
1700.2

Put

2031.6

363.3

257.6

118.2
732 .
1531.04- 1108..4Pat
&l'd __ 'OO
112.4-

~
...

-.5%
1.0%

-467.6
354.1
1328.6
2214.9

758.5
422,'

."" "S.""
..".." .-

11Yra.

".6

820.'

637.t1
1992.8
317.7

.......
7.511

10.5%
9.0,,"

10.5"
'3.5"
NMF

".5"

14.~

QUIIlTUL' SALES IS"'l'


Oct.ii ... .31 Apr.30 Ul
1048.9 960.5 1095.6 1070.5
1039.0 973.8 1143.0 1244.1
1207.5 1130.9 1255.5 1233.6
1370.8 1349.0 1399.0 1459.4
1ll63.1
111lD 1156.1
EARJINGS PER SHARE A B
Dd.ii ... .31 Apr.30 Ut
.92
.83
.76
.89
.92
.86
.98 1.116
d.47
1.01
.94
1.10
1.52
1.13
.80 1.35
1.53
.91
.IS
US
QUIIlTfRL' ONllEMlS plI)

1196
1911
1118
1999

,.

llar.31

Jun.31

SeD.30 Dee.31

NO CASH DIVIDENDS
B8NG PAID

2000
IAj'-",!C":

47A

4'"

Target Price Range


2003 2004 2005

, ",

- -- - --

111111

"

..

20
15

..... .... ."

F
fiscal

You
4175.5
4399.9
4827.5
5588.2

.-F

Y.,
3.40
3.82

2.58
'.80

Hll

F~I

Y.,

f--

5156.4
11.8%

21'.9

76.32
'.28
~10

..

1.62
36.37

11.

.71

.70

24.0
1.42

56926

34741

11.8'"

9.1%
107.4

5219.0
11.5\
219.8
163.6

..

236.'

..

75.06
'.'2
218

71M
4.97
~84

..

..

13

1.7D

1624

13.12

14.1
J2

1<8
.86

..

..

3446.1 3319.1
8.9% 9.8\

98.'

95.'

~ 1998 1999 2000 001'


1997
90.78
96.10 1~.96 123.39 95.85
T1!1!>
6.15
1_
5.61
7.17
9.05
6.'9
3.40
3.82
~58
3.15
'.80
..
..
..
..
iii
2.46
V4
1.95
L"
'.04
22.37
2S.71 28.31 32.85
JUS
19.52
45.78
.57
13.4
14.8
9.7
14.0
23.'
.T1
.T1
1.35
M
.66

13.8%

..

142%

..

174.4

12.9%

..

87A

5.3%

..

11.3%
l%

17.9'.

3611.5

4175.5

10.6%

10.8%

113.8
150.9

131.5

1%

16.5%

..

..

..

15.1%

1%

1%

1yr. . 31.0
3)'1'.
18.5
5 yr.
30.8

U
19.7
1!3.-4

C VALUfIJIE PIII.IjC.
SIIH JIll' III A
'CaI1_ ...

lD

7.5

OU5
111..
7.85

... ''''_1.... ...

..

4399.9 481/.5
11.4%
147.6
181.4

......

~"

..

162.0
105.1 136.0
40.0% 39.9% 39.5% 39.5\
40.0%
4115% 40.5% 40.5'
3.5% 3.1'"
4.1\
3.9%
3.1%
~5%
3.1'
'1%
1594.1
1232.0
186.5
435.3
31.0
130.2
68.8 121.1
1501.2
13361
103.6
514.5
507.3
986.7 542.3 105.6
1300.1 1157.1
1364.1
1663.7
610.4
158.1
917.3 1039.0
9.0% 9.8% 10.6\
11.0%
11.9%
5.3\
15.8'
18.5'
13.8\
14.1\
12.8\
5.3% 172%
11.8%
16.5\
15.6%
178.8

-- ...

.. TOT. RE1lItIII nlaD

nos

11.1

..

60
50

30
25

992E.~!lt!I~5
1996

10J
J,

'"
40

II

I----

..

55881

11.1'"
160.6
120.6

12.3'"
189.5

2211

40.0%

43.5% 42.6%
2.5% 4.0%
162.6
292.'
5001
T11.3 859.3 1293.1
13001 1495.9
11812
7.0%
10219.9%
15.3\
9.3% 14.8%
9,.
15.3%
14.8%
0%
1%
1%

'.1%

Ean*IgI~"

7."

DiY'c1, Dld'd J*' III

l1li

looll VaIuI pII' lit C

.......

A'S Al101PIE_

..,

~~.

R~PJERdo
Avg Ann' Ilv'd YiIkI

12.ft
341 Dspndda1 ("'I,
115 NI1I'1oIt 1l1l0i01l
4UII IIrtc:tnI Tu RIll
111 NI1_1brgIo
3!D W_I Cop' Ilnl)
11!ll lolli' .... o.t~1

m. Sh,.-Eoo'tYllniIi

'.ft
IUS
IUS
liil

56...
47-!IJ
1~'

Rlilm an 10lilc.p,
R.... "' .... E....
RIIaIMd to CCI'II Eq
AI DlY'ciI tll NIt Prof

1/1

U~
W
:131

42'"

""...

'2M

Ull
f2.~
'Ull
If!

BUSINESS: LiItDn IndusR!l, Inc. opemes ., four segmenIL Ad


v.ncad EIlrdroncs (2810 of '00 sales); InbmatIon
Sy5tIms (24"');
Marine Enginelling
.nd ProdLJdDI (3510); .1Id EI9l2oni:
Crtpan"",, and Materials (13%1. Makes d8f81S8 ttIBcmJi: sysirms,
cornputflf ~nts,
iltegrPid m:ub, IpICQized matcn.
aviDni:: mnrr-1Its, .1Id warships. U.s. gowl lICCOUnB::l b 6810 of

'00 revenues. '00 de~ tnt: 10.5". Ell piilInt age: 6 )'lllllIS. Has
25,600 SharehOklen,
40,300 empDyees.
lkIim mnIIDIs 27.9'10 of
stx:k; Sanbd
C. B.-ns1Itin & Co. 9.110. OIls. & do. oontroI5.71o
(lCWO PIoiry). Ctwm. & CEO: hi. R Brown. PrM. & COO: R D.
Sup. Inc.:DE. Nkhss: 21240 Bwtanll: 81vd., Woodllnd HIs, CA
91367. Tel: 818-598-5000.
IntfIrrIeI: www.Ib:lrNxIp.a:n

On December

Street doesn't expect a higher offer from


any one else. since not many companies
have the size. finances. Of' know-how to
make such an offer. Shareholders unwUling to take turobably
remote risk that
the deal will
lhrough should sell now.
(11le TImeliness rank is omitted due to the
pending takeover.)
It's not hard to see the reasons for
Northrop's interest.
Utton is a major
derense contractor. With its hefty order
backlog or $8.2 bUllon as of October 31st,
its future looks bright. Moreover, Litton
has become a major supplier to the Navy,
opening a large new market for Northrop.
And Utton has achIeved generally good
profitability,
which mlght well be enhanc':ed when the rompanles are Joined.
Furthennore, as mentioned above, while
the prtce-eamlngs multiple Nortbrop is
paying looks high, Nonhrop stated that
the deal will be modestly accretlve to Its
share earnings in the fU'Styear followed by
greater contributions thereafter. We think.
the combined company may well achieve
considerably better investment returns
than either could attain on Its own.
Milton Schlein
December 29. 2000

21st. Northrop
Grurn
Litton for
580 a share. amounting to $3.8 billion.
Northrop (reviewed elsewhere in this EdJtlon) would also asswne Utton's debt,
about $1.3 blllJon. a total value or $5.1 bi1~
llon. Northrop expects that the rombina. lion of these two large defense-or!ented
companies will permit both substantial
cost savings and greater marketing clout.
This looks like a good deal for Utton
shareholders.
The $80 price Is nearly
30% above Litton stock's last trade before
the atUlO\.UlCement.
And it is the highest
price Litton has ever commanded. Indeed,
It approximates the average price we are
projecting for Utton stock in the 20032005 period. Moreover. the $80 ngure Is
about 17 times our 12-months eamings
estimate for LItton. That is at the high end
of the historical ptice-earnings range. On
the day rollowing the announcement, Utton rose to about $78. lhat small discount
rrom the workout price s~ests
that Investors believe that the de will proceed
smoothly, without serious objection from
the
govemment
or other
reVIf!!W~
authorities. It also suggests that W

man made a bid to acquire

Its..., ",

nipa'!

Tlf[PU8USHERESM11 RE
ell ~ be ttp'GIIIEed. SIInd a ~

",

,,"', J'~31"'181!t"'''1
($'.67): 'DO ($.06]. _
... fmm
7, cIIluled thenIirII8r.
eawniIgs
disaJnt. opt.: '91, $2.11. hd AYOI1d_ Indw lidll Jan. E.ldIldes ~
dllDiBs itI'n &99. (C) Ind. intang. 14 cI July
~
(bulls): '85, $0.04; '93, ($2.05); '94, 31, '00,: $1267.5 d,
$27.991sh. (Olin rril,
Cl MID, YIIlIe Lile ~~
1I5lII'nllI. , ...
IMBiII i" IIIUiIRd IRn. _
bIlie\IIIIIlD be
tI'IOugh

36.'

63.5
26.6

..

u of 10131100
0l1li .. 5 Yrw $237.1 mil

Receivables
~ntory (FFO)

'\.

.. ....... -

..

'.0
.o~
:U

171

IlIlLl
Co"' ......

40.5

Nil

lID

'.'

LTlnteral
$10Q.OmiI.
LT Dtbt $1240.5 mi.
(LT intIlresI earned: 4.61'; i:Jta1 merest coverage:
4.411)
(46'" rI c:.p'l
Peuion
UablltJ NDOlI

74.6

'.

1.11

CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Tatal o.bI. $1358.7mil

68.0

.'.

" .,
16.3

..

58.4

I,'

It

..

"''''

51.5

125
100

1988
1989
1990
1991
1984
1985 1986 1987
95.85 103.14 115.20 131.60 140.71
aU1
83.05 85.30
SUO
7.84
UO
6.99
9.61 10.16
5.53
5.17
I.3l
525
3.11
3.53
3.63
3.56
3.94
360
H8
314
233
..
..
..
..
..
..
.95
.75
.52
5.12
417
u.7
~01
5.40
Vi
'.69
'.79
22.95 25.86 28.86 28.91 33.51
23.87 11.08
18.55
20.14
OJ."
10.1

".0
32.5

~vu

'.

F.AIJJASO
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01*-. 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Institutional Decisions
101M
lDllII
p.r'C'Im
......
7e
BII
sh.""
eo traded
37198
37231 30610

159

13 2 (Tl1iins:llJ)IF
..di.dU
ff RAOO0 92

Pf
RAOO

49.6

Insider Decisions

1:::'1

5h

FlIMOp 1tI

Raaliwe Pra Slnn9lh


2... -1,,* "2

",,"110lil
Rn.n

"'" (;:"~l
55

1
34.4 . 36.9

11.0 llI:l5h

.as om- Ma!tli)


GIN!

40.~1 .....

LEGENDS
1lJ I a:'5h f_Op

200;1.05 PROJECTIONS
100

49.0
35.8

High:

-0

3 "'"'",,_

IJA

P~CE

[ORAKY[RRQRSQROMISSlONSH[R[w.T1Ii!.~&sR:Iy"~own,I1CllH:GN_""'IIlIImII_.
il ., Jft*d,
a CIIWr bm. t:6 Il5ed Iar g--.g -uiRg q pIiaIlI G I!IPGIir

**'*

ComnuItioI_[ ~

""...,'"
.. ""'"
....
(E)
ti:Jns W8I9 .pun off 8/1192. (F) SaI8s WI '01
.. cI. disconl. op. (G) Rank SIJSPfI'!'Dd dw b
pend~ 1T'fIflfVW. IH) Price 8S of noon Dee. 22.
nilUe ... is f"II'iIed wIIalI .-nnIies cI ~ UML

"'**',

pili

Mnilz fI"Ollrt

Stock'. ric.StablIity
Pr1cI Growth ~rwiItHcI
E.mlngl
Prwdicblbllty
I

I'.

70
45
55
:

II:

II.

LONGVIEW FIBRE NYSELFB


I I

3 ..... ."..
3 ... ,1211Jl
SAFETY
TECHNICAL 4 ..... """"
BETA .75 (1..ao MIIla)

High:
Low:

lIIEUIIESS

200U5

...
1IIil'

....,.

GaIn

16~
12.4

~=.

Ann'Rft.Im
TotII

~(i~l

13.6
8.8

iwbln

.L'" ..

111111'1111

j~

0"."

lIDJfMAM

,
.. ..

,I

...

....

lJ>o""'l

=~
''Cash Flow"
Booi<V ....

....

--

R....

95.9

n.o
10.5

.... .3
53.5
53.0
302
136.7

25.0

24.5

PHI
11YB.
2.%
-1.(%
-19.0%
2."'"
3."'"

--

105.0
79,6
8.'
192.7
43.7
56.0

96.7
.... 0
15.1
197.8
37.3
80.7

.42.5

ANNUAL RATES

"s_....

...

--

00"

....

nIL

. 0%
-2.0%
-24.0%
-1.5%
..5%

..

(S.t,

".

6.5'"
11.5"

5(1.0"

8.5%
8.5%

--

...."

I..,

1'B1 BiISld
' ' ' ' -' 'on

Odcbw

,,01.

IMfage sh8r8s tIvoo;;lh 1996,


IPIendiUl8d. Em.. IIOmlCIM1g 9ails: '84, 20.
Nul. 8lI'nilgs n1pat dus lite Nowrrbtr.

111, VIkJe U-

I'IItIBhI1lJ -.

..
..,

124.7
.... 1 Est'd'l7-'1I

QUARTERLY
SAID
You ... n.31 ApI.30 Jul.31
1
1997 182.2 185.8 197.4 207.4
19811 176.2 185 . 194.2 198.9
1999 153.3 186 . 197.6 227.0
2000 205.5 21~B 220.3 1314
2D01 23Il
Z35
UO
255
EARNINGS PSt SHARE It
YK' J.n.31 ApI.30 Jul.31 Oct31
1197
.DB
.00
.DB
1191
d.14
.02
0.00
.DB
1199
0.02
.23
.10
.DB
.11
.24
2000
.24
.21
2D01
.11
.42
.J4
.J6
QUARTERLY
0_
PMlc
CoJIIlr.31 Jun.30 Sep,30 Dec.31
1196
.15
.19
.15
.15
.16
1997
.16
.16
.16
.08
.16
.16
.14
1999
.02
.16
.02
.DB
.
12
2000
.12
.12
.12

""'"

17A
10.3

17A

22.'
14.8

14.1

0 96 DIV'D
YlD
4.2%

0.'

Target Price RanU2003


2004 200.

17.8
10.6

.'

, ,..

- -"'10.1111'

...,..-

R~I

YK'

m8
753.2
m.3
175

.-..,
S6D

YK'

.25

d.13

.39
.II
1..1lJ
Full
Y.ar

.64
.64
.54
.28

If

- --

50
40
32

- --

--

24

20

'2

.. ....
'

.'

. ..

.. .

"Tot

....

..

........

RETURIIIfDD

"

""

S1DOl
-1.9
-34.9

...

'I'.
'I' .
'1'.

. <:

1:5-.4

25.2
87.11

---

1999
1997
1998
2000
2001
1996
VALUE LIIE PIJIl.IiC. 0345
1 .58 14.98 16.90
1155 SaIlS pi!' III A
15.91 1.4.96
21.75
1.55
202
171 CaIl Fklw" per It!
1.92
2.20
~
253
d.13
.39
1.09
.15
1.31> &mIngs per Ih II
1.15
Div'dl Dld'd pII' III C
.54
.
.28
.
1.",
3.01
tn
1.111
W
115
8.14
9.10
8.70
8.03
045
!1f B.cU .... "" '"
111lJ
5.
5.
0IlIIll0Il
5.
.0
I
,u
33.,
'0 ANn' pJE Rdo
14.' NMF
1.90
R_PiERno
NMF
1.10
J3
N'"
3.7% 22%
AvgAnn'l DiY'dYiIkI
3.9'4
3.6%
2.711
753.2 n4.3
175
822.7 m8
NIl
1125
14.4% 19.5% 15.9" 21-'" O!*dtloli_
22..1%
22.4% 17.3%
70.,
87.0
841
86 .
710 a.-"'IIn~1
79.6
<Wi.7 20.0
m Nil P!tl1111n111
127
415
1N
56.'
35.1% 34.9% 34.9% 36.5% 5U'll 3O.51l IIlCOlll Tu Rdt
51.5"
2.6%
1.6%
NIF
6.9%
7.'" ... tP!tlI1M ....
55.,
68.0
215
51.0
1' W_I Cop' Ilnlll)
55'
547.0 495.9
.26.3
.98.1
4511
420.5
70 . 449.5
475 S'lf.
130
SniII
4.1\
1D.S%
8.1% 3.01
11%
1.0% RRim on TDlII Cap'
. 8%
12.0% 28%
'.$ll 1~0'll R.-m an stir. Equfty
N'"
lU"
NMF
NMF 1.3\
4.9%
'O'll Rltllnld 10 Cm Eq
NMF
12.%
AI
DiY'ds
10
Nil
Prof
59%
5O'll
N'"
BUSINESS: Longview Fibnl Company operates in thr8e busi1ess
teen converting plants iI eleYen slatBs. Owns 570,9931MJll11dtloSf9II8nts. Produces tinber for sale domestitally and iJIIlmatDnal- bertand i1 Oregon & Washingl:ln. Expgts aa:ounled for 20% d "99
l)'. P!tldU09S pap&" and paperbo;lnl ~
(nft pIlpm', COli- Illes. Has about 3,650 ."pL, 11,000 sh2nholdln. orrs. & dn.
taiwtlolrd) at its pulp and papsnil plant iI Longview, WA. Pro- CM1I10.3% d stock (12139 PrDxy). Channan, Pn!si:Sent, ...:I Ch"
duces mlM!ll:lld pmduds (shippilg contann, rT18IdJIndila, and Emcul:ive 0fI'ar: RIchard P. WoI8nberg. k.: WA. Adcnss: 300
FIbrI Way, l..Dngviaw, WA 98632. Telephone: 360-425-1550.
grDCllll'y bigs; n1prasen1s (MIl" haf rl ~ny's
tDlaI .. _) II sa-

;::;

,... ,

Curmnt Ass8ts
_Payable
Debt Due
0Ihe<
CUrT1mlliab.

.0.3

19.6
13.3

'

,.

IlIV8nDy (UFO)

14.9

ff RAOO.

lIedi.dU

'.0

,U'

Ca~&...

23 .

15.8

"

1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1986
1984
1985
1987
12.76
13.26 12.46
13.37
821
8.16
8.79 10.26
2.00
213
1....
1.85
233
J2
!Ii
1.10
1.09
.,1
1.74
1.13
.32
.52
.
1Il
1.17
.48
.52
.52
.52
.26
.26
.32
.28
,.2li
2.13
234
.69
.68
.49
1.'7
1.5'
7.05
6.39
7.29
7.39
3.68
3.89
.11
5.06
Ol." 51.t1ll
55.5'
" ...
".4:l
"."
61
11.6
123
10.1
10,'
"2 2. ,
'1.5
'2
.61
.n 2.50 1.41
.88
1.15
.93
J2
.68
3.7'10 3.4%
4.411
3.5%
5.6%
3.0'4
4.1'
4.6'
5"
685.6 644.0
CAPrrAl.. STRUCTURE u of 7131100
691.0
TGl.II Dl:bI $523.9 mil. D_ 1ft 5 Yrs 5390.0 mill.
23.0'4 15.4'
19.4%
LTDebt $470.9 mil.
LTlnterwl $31.5 mil.
48.9
58.0
53.'
Ind. $28.9 mil Clpilalized leases.
61.1
16.6
32.1
(LT inIemt 1WTI8d:1.9x; iJtal intfftsI CDY8filge:
1.81)
(52% d Cap1J 34.1\, 26.0'4 32.3%
4,611
8.9'4
2.5%
Pension L11b11i1y
None
26.6
21.6
30.1
303.6 356.0 362..
PIlI Stock None
381.6 m.O 382.1
9.7%
4.2% .,%
Comman S10ck 51,676,567 ,tis. (48% of CaP')
15.8% 4.% 8.4%
MARKETCAP: "75 million (Sm.l1IClIp)
8.5'1.
NMF 1,.4%
7131.
CURRENT POSmoN
46%
NMF
84%
R8ceivables

23.0

4(Tl1ilng:1i5)IF

".

.". "'..
....,... '" t~'" ,.

....

18.8
12.9

J J

1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
000 0 0 0 000
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
IMUlutIO .. 1Decisions
<0\.
P.n:-nI
50
55
h.rea
42
::::..
49
24179
28752

15.8
OA

~smi

",

Insider Dec" :ma

....

PRICE

LEGENDS
'.D:r-C8Mf'-p5h
..
RdlMPri:eSIJengtl
5.fof-llP1 WI

PROJECllONS

PriCII

13 PfRAOO 13

I~ECENT

1993
1994
1995
.3.29
15.26 19.04
211
205
3.00
.78
1A1
.52
.52
.60
1>7
2.68
1.'"
Hill
711l
8.65
5.
51.
'.ro
22.3
30.6
11.3
1.32
201
.76
3.0'4
27'10 3.5%
689.5 790.' 985.6
22.3% 18.9'4 23.1%
59.0
72.7
79.'
.0.3
76.0
33.'
36.1% 38.5% 36.8%
5n
.2% 7.7%
34.3
35.6
m
327.5 366.5 109.'
398.8
447.9
7.1% 5.9'4 10.7%
10.1% 83% 17.0%
1.6'1.
10.0%
'J%
61%
81%
41%

...

.....

..

...

,1.f'

::- ....

.....

(I

etIaIOIit:

~'" .,..

.."""

.,,~
.,~

CASH POSITION

5-V.. rAv'1

CurrMl: ......
b ClJ'rWnt u.~l[
C_tl & Equl'. b C..,.nll..lsblllM:
WtrtIng Caplls.1to s... :

ii pllllided RImuI .1mIIlie5

-.yo pri"IIal

5.1"

These two segments have historically been


a drag on Longview's profits. However.
through the fll"St nine months of flscal
2000. LFB's converted products and paper
& paperboard segments posted operating
profits of $14.1 million and $4.0 million.
respectively. compared to losses of $15.2
million and $7.5 million In 1999. l11Is
largely reflected higher selling prices. The
improved results in these two divisjons,
coupled with better margins resulting
from Longview Fibre's ongoing cost-cutting
InJtiatives. have driven the company's
strong share-net advance this year.
1b.is stock offers above-average appreciation potential. However. because
of the cyclical nature of the industry
(amplified In LFB's case by Its heavy debt
burden) and how LFB's profits are closely
tied to volatile selling prices, specifically in
the timber market, this eqwty may be best
suited for venturesome investors.
William G. Ferguson
OctD~r 13. 2000

11>93. 121; """'. 51: 10196. 4.


(D) In mllions, acljustsd b' stock spit.

January, Apri~ JU~, 0ctDb&r. Ind. special


drv'ds: 1D!'88,~; Ot'89,~; lDr90, 3; 10192 &
resemd. hctull IIIIIIeriII & abl*-'d IWI'n .-te5 bItieIn 10be ' ......

~'"
...,

... ~::~r)
...
U"

.,,4,9

Recent strufj8les in Longview Fibre's


timber diviSIon will likely continue to
impact profit ~
through the remainder of 2000.
e timber segment's
(htStorlcalJy Longview's stro~t
division)
profits declined 28% in the
d quarter.
compared to the year-ago same period. The
weak earnings were the result of a 9%
decrease In log volume and a 13% decline
In lumber prtces. Golng forward. we expect
industrywide weakness in the timber market to persist. as an excess supply problem
llngers. In fact. during the first half of
2000, timber supply exceeded demand by
1.8 mUllon board feet. Too, an expected
slowdown in the homebuilding market will
likely add to the timber industry's woes.
Co~uently,
we are redUcing our fiscal
2000 ends October 31st) and fiscal 2001
share-net estimates by a dime to SO.80 and
S1.30. respectively. That said,
Lon~ew
Fibre's bottom line will
like y more than double in fiscal 2000.
There are a number of factors that rontributed to the company's overall strong perfonnance. not the least of which has been
the turnaround in LFB's paper & paperboard and converted products divisions .

AI ~
THEPU8USHER IS MJT RE PONSIlLE OIl'ANYERRORSOROMIS'SKlN$ HER[II.Thi5~is5I'dJb~s'*l,~id.er.-use.
d INJ' tr ~
... II" ~
II ." pri'IeIl. deImIi:: a utI!I bin. III lIKld 1m ~
lJ IIMdiIJ

- _~A

..-

'"

. aboul
I """' '-no ,....De<. ........
,
Dee. 20. ~
piilIyII*II didls: early

..,

...... ...
...
"':'~lIIll""'"
...... _ ..

pM;:;Jlin. ~

c:f

Ccon .,..

7/31/00

'36~

--

--

5.5%

F .......

' ........

C*
70
10
2D

Stock's Plica Stablily


Pra Grvwth PMwimnctl

:.A o'*'allL
II"

F'OCIua.

Esmlnp
I

PMidlbllty
I

I'.

II:

II'

LOUISIANAPACIFIC

NYSELPX

6.0%

IREeEHT
!PRlCE
31.5
14.6

"2.D
28.8

43.0
25.8

30.5
20.9

28.1
19.6

25.9
17.0

24.2
18.4

,,'
"

..;...--

"

....

24

.....

tQ2.

88

:::en 611ii

la2 ..

74

81

.h.....

.....

e1~

11.

'.0

4.0

'"'"
10.32

3...
1A7
10..&4 11.15

114.03

107.61

'.1
.54
2-"

14.3

1.""
12.46

107.97 10922

1...
14.26

2.15
16.51

10.18

111.99

3.35
15.28

2.24
13.13

108.35 108.n

Plnslon L1abifrtyS31. 1 mil in '99YS. S1S.5mil.

3.0'
1193.3
16.6'
152.3
91.1
33.5'
5."
313.6
588.1

14.B
.87
11'
2511.3
24."
1831
258.B
39.5%
10."
296.9
288.6

3039.5
24.91
191.3
346.9
37.5111
11.41
349.6
209.8

16.1
1.08
2"
2843.2
16.6'
202.6
170.1
36.'"
6.0'
170.0
201.3

~~'tOCkNone

1166.1

1203.6

1361.0

1511.4

1849."

1656.0 1427.6

14.B
1.00
3.0'

10.1
.68
25'

B.5
.71
3.~

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE.. of!lJOlVO


Total o.b1: 51172.5 mil. Due ... 5 YI'S$&40.0mi.
LTD.b1$1125.8 mil. LTlm.rnI $65.0mil
Ind. $10.6 mill in capil8lzecl'-a5eS.
(U ner9Slum8cl:
3.OX; tDtiIl m8l'8lit CClYIlfiIg&;

l.u:.~.

Uncapltl.1lDd None

('"" of ""'~

1.[6

CcmmonStock 104,18D,191
shs.
u of7/2SHOO
(58"'ofcap'~
Y.l.RKE'TCAP: 1975 million (Small Cap)
CURRENT POSITION'.
1111 6I3CWO

l.lLl

3 yr.
Syr.

14.0
.85
1."
2184.7
21."
163.0
1769
37.M~1
6."
243.6
386.3

"'.9
2.43
3.6'

=='yr.
i~ii~i~iiiw~i~iiilji~"""-

Pel'l:ellt 12.0
tradMJ

24.4
1.56
29'
1702.1
15.0'
149.B
55.9
36.0%
3."
201.9
492.1

3.s.)

II. Tat. Rrn.JIII MO

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988


10.87 11.16 13.62 16.71 16.09
2.51
1.01 1.18
1.67 2.37
1.18
.21
.22
.59
1.09
.30
.23
.24
.26
27
1.70
1.60 1.30 5.15
1.86
6.60
6.86
8.54
9.08 10.17
31.5
2..93
3.5'

12

D-eI&Kx1&

.tll1.

llJ.lb

',11.,,1

I.
/

/.
/-. ".;

..,.

20

"/
"".....

Institutional

,.

II"

"'c"

6.5%
1.8%
4.5%
42%

4.6'

.4.6"
U%
701

10.9
.71

1.4,

10.11. 14.3% 11.1% 9.5%


13.Dtt 16.5% 18.8% 10.3%
9.BI' 13.5% 15.9'10 6.8%
24"
18"
151.
34%

M.If
NMF
2.4'
2486.0
99'
191!
a
37.1%
~,
234.5
458.6
.9%
.5%
NMF
NMF

1.41
11.13
109.63

1.14
11.40

1.12
12.96

1.75
1185

-a:l.1
-55.3

25.2

Yl~_
97.8

1.J5 Cop'SjIon<ing.-'"
1155 BociYIMplflh

1N.., 10175 COllInlanSIll 0UtIl'1 c

10721~ 104.97

WW'
HIE
25'
2291.1
""
185.4
38.1
44.5%
1."
245.5
459.8

B.B
__
A'll An., PIE_
.50
IN
R*IYI Pit Rdo
27'
3.0'
;",
A'IlAn.'Dh'dYIlid
2402.5
2878.6 ZI5a
Z SIIII~
4.0'
20."
1!.5'Jl 13.ml Dooroh Ii....
1839
2020
24D
210 Otpnci_(Inl)
d611
221.9 55.5
11 No1""'fit Ilnlll

39.'"
41.1" 41.11 InCOIDITuRatt
NMF
,-"
1.11
.21 No1Pn>11Morgin
2n5
198.7
Z7D
.J3I WarklnIlClp'I(SN1I)
Sn.3
1014..8 115lJ 1m Lanv~T-:m ~JW)
12862 1222.8 1360.0
1m
1. Shr,EDlitvINI
NMF 3.3" 10.3'
3."'
1.51 RlIIlmonTatIICIp'
NI.IF 3.1" 16.3" .f.aI
.51 Rnun 011SIr. -E~
NMF
NMF 12.0%
NtIF
HtfF R'1alHd to Ccn Eq
Nt.lF
NMF
27%
ME
NIIF All DiY'ds 10 Nil PraI'

1.55
11.5U
1QZ..5Q
15.5

n.
1.1

1$.'"
,..
W
oft.n

1111
<C5lI

t3I
1315

.in
tal
,US
~

BUSINESS: Looisi.1nIPaclJc Corporation is the largest manufac1l1l81"d. OriBrrted Shnd BOII'tI (OSB) II Harth Nneri;a. It also produces other buiIdilg products, and ~ a IeIss' utent, marNll: pulp.
1999 sales br8ab:lown: mx:tural pnxIuds, 56%; 1llderi:Jr goods,
K: i'ld1lShal panel procIUds. 1M.; pulp. 4"'; ou., 21"'. Acqund
Evans FanlSI.f'JDduds. 11199;La Groupe Foru:, 9199; ABT Suit!-

ing Prndudl Co., 2199. 1999 depreciaIkln


nIB: 6.4%. Has about
13,000 III'npbyees, 16,400 lltI::Ic:tiIoId8n. The Capitll Research and
Milllagenen1 Ccmpany owns 7.7% d. ccnmon Alck; OhJDn-,
2.0,," (3IDO praq1. Challlliln & CEO; f81: A. Suwyn. hUiptJlllla:t
DeIawin.~:
111 S.W. Filth A.....
PldInd,
Onlgon
97204. Telephone:503-221-osoD.lntamet www.Ipcarp.c:crn.

366.8 540.7 0419.1 We are drastically


cutting
our shareI-::=:=:=o:::=~--:---=--,--===:-inet
estimates
for 2000 and 2001 for
ANNUAL
RATES Past.
Paid Est"d'l7'18 Louisiana.Pacific
due to extreme prl h....
afctlln;e(plwlfl)
11YB.
5YB.
tD'IJ.'15
'6
Silles
3.5%.2.0"
weaknesses across most product segments.
"CBShFiow"
-1.0% -10.0"" 8.0~
Despite widespread forest fires. an over-

to the U.S. Such an increase in proouction


would further alter the industry's supply
and demand relationships.
leading
to an
even
weaker pricing enviromnent
for
these products.

CaSh AsSets
Receivables
~erDy (UFO)
Cumml Assets
h;t;;;s Pilyable
Debt Due
0tIw
CummtLiab.

tal-

126.5
134.7

116.0
200.7

118.1
233.4

612.1
127.3
34.1

739.04
195.0
44.9

798.7
145.2
48.7

205.2

300.8

'127.2

~~Jm:~ ~W~

1~1~~:i

t:"isw.

~::PJ:~st~~;::

r:~~~.~:~:~=g

!!!!
-

:e~~

p~~:=t.z

f'o':-~~:::i:;

lIar~~~~J1~.11
~: ~g~r1or =~;oou~~~~l
of~
~~.:~':~Oca:~
e~~~:n~weP:~
lleve recent tecJmologica.l advances are

.1Id.r
company"s chief wood product, OSB, are
1197 554.6 633.3 619.5 595.1 2402.5 expected to be down in excess of 25%-30%
versus second-quarter levels, Additionally.
2000 n6.9 m.1 51!
.111 ZISQ
the company's paper products are experi2D01 S5
11.
I3D 5S5 210
endng pricing difficulties. Therefore,
due
1-"''''-+"",",=,=====:''''=--j==--1 to our belief that these trends are likely to
Ca~
EARtlNGSP!lSH~A
Ful
continue over the coming 12 to 18 months
",dar Mar.31JudO SID.JUDtc.31 Yeu as the industry deals with supply and
1997
d.29
d.10
d.16
d.lO
d.75 demand issues, we have reduced our 2000
1.
d.23
.08
.44
.06
.35 and 200t share-net estimates by $1.05 and
.2654 "462 .;~
.;~
2': SO.90. respectively.
21101 d.15 11.115 .11
.15
.115 A weak euro could lead to further
CaJQUARTERLYDNIlENDSPAl)~
Full prldng
decUnes.
H the dollar-toeur'O
, """",,,'"-'
-!-"M,,,,.,,31.....,,J,,un,,,.3CI,,,",S,,,S"',,,,,33C1.....,Doc:'7;'J,,,1't-'''U;::':-I
conversion rate remains
at current
levels.
r
many foreignpaper companJes may in1. .14 .14 .14 .14
.56 crease their output in the corning years.
1997 .14 .14 .14 .14
.56 Indeed. when the Asian economies faltered
1991 .1.
.14
.14
.14
.56 In 1998. many Asian producers ramped up
.14
.56 their production and shipped more paper

~:
::~
::~
~:~
~~~:~
:i~

Target Pric. Range


2003 200. 2005

15.8
8.4

50
40
32

'

24.9
11A

",",u

= :~::~:.~:

IJ(33);

(AI OU8d ewni1gs. Bilsi: ellllllngs through


w. (!ij); Q1'OO,1; Q2'OO, (21_). Ne:rI
1994. EJ:dudes
gains {bSSaI};
earnings report due 1iJht~.
'84, 19r;'85, 28; '86. $1.09; lJ8. 51.43;'93
fB) Next d;fl:Iend mll8ling aboot Nov. 10th.
(1"-l:'95 (52.0n:'96. ($1.01);
'97.(19t);
'98, (;Des u about Nov. 13th.wu-mlte piIr)'II lOOO, va. Lm AJtisIIiRL .. AI ~
1e5emIII. FKlUII .....,
is dIUined fNm DIIte5 ~
10 be

nornct.mI"

THE PUBLISHER IS MOT Rf~PONSIBLE


II ..., lit np'lIIlICN. ~
CI" ~

lClllANY ERRORS ORCMSSIONSHE"REItI.


i1 .". pIi'IN. ....
cr _
fcrm. CI"

al-

lowing more paper to be produced with the


old machines. This could cause inventory
levels In this commodity industry to creep
up and pressure
prices .. LouJsiana-Pac:I.8c
and many other companJes
are taking
downtime to combat this problem, but it
appears this will not be enough to prop up
prlces. Thus. without plant closures by
LPX and others. prices and profits will
remain depressed for sometime.
We recommend
most investors
avoid
these untimely
shares at this time. The
company will struggle until industry supply and demand levels are brought Into a
more sustainable balance, which limits the
opportunities for share-prlce appredatlon
through 2003-2005.
WR. Pek.owitz. Jr.
October 13. 2000

limenl
da&es: 1st rI M.a.. June, SeplBrnb8r.
Dllca'nber. Stock dMdends: 3%. '81-'87.
Oividend'.I'bSlI" ptan Nliillbill.

ICllnmilixls.lKl;us1ed b Rx:k splils.

II!WR _
is powiled ~
-.IIIIIIIie5
Tbiiptii:llionissh:::ly"
~s_,_~iIIIlnDI.R.
r.ISId .. gB"III'1Iing cr nfIIdng my FftIIIlII cr eIKtnric pdlbIoII. ~

~PIJIY"
FlIlI.ncill StlWlglll
S~
Pr1CIIStablity
Price GrowUI,.rUtMa

PmdlctalMlty

bmlnv-

B
55
15

II InJ liId.
CI"

'o~
pocb!.

I '.

: II:

II.

3 ..... "n1l1l
SAFETY
3 "'' 271''
TECHNICAl. 3 .....""'"
BETA. .n. om_MarUi)

H;gho

TJlElIIIESS

~PROJE~NS
PriA
Killh

lllW

Rnm

g"
-1"

(+35~l
":15%

13

i.:Z

Ann'I Total

GIIn

2D

low:

5.3
2.9

5.3
3.5

9.1
4.B

.'"
::-..

n192
1Irt5

3-b-2

1zt97

MU

.u,
I ..

.....

"

"

5J4
.76
.31
.07
lJl9
3.20

6.,

6.60
93

.so

.s9

7.44
1.08
.45
.09

8.14

'23

.1!l
.07
.9'
3.53

:l9

A2

CulT8trl

...

ANNUAL. RATES

"_lIw""

Rs-. ....
"Cesh Flow"
EIlrni1gs
Dividends
BookVaJue

3.S
12.8

2.9
14.4

2.'
13.3

10.4
......,..,

-----;n

11.1

27.4
10.5

28.7
16.2

7.9
33.3
16.7
14.8
35."

Liab.

25.6

59A

Pat
1nfL
6.0%

-.

7.5%
1005%

10.5%

6.0%
3.0%
11.0%
9.5%

7.0"

A.OS

4.5"

<0"

l:

,....

""'"

._,

- -- - --

,.
5

......

8.37
1.40

.70
.12
2..
6.61

,u,
162

'-06
1.1%
245.6
24!%
20.4
20.7
38.91i
8.4%
d13.3
107.1
113.9
8.1%
'0.7%
8!%
1/%

H.45
1.62
!2
.15
2~
7Jll
1. ,
B6
1.3%
278.0
ISj%
23.6
24.1
40.0%

8M
1.7B
93

'026
202
'-04

23

20

204
8.52

3.63
H36

".'"

14.7
.66
1.3%

11.1
1.07
1.4%

""
""'"

.......
...

.>!

IOU

% TOT. RE'IlRI1l11aD

...

1 ".
3".

,".

f-

"'"... r--

U
21

11.1D

211
1.02
.22
3.83
10.00

205
.77
.22
3.74
10.48

J.37
11.03

18.7
1.07
1.5%

16.1
1.13
,~%

JU.'"
'72
.89
1.2%

2623
293%
IS.'
27'
39.1'0
10.5'
d19.1
121.1

209
.71

.22

1.25 C.1f!Flow"' 1*III

1-JS
1.11

.71

..

~lpII'lIl
.zA Div'ds Dlcl'd ""

~ elf!' Spencling

IIh
plIt'

I!I

11.45 B... VoIuo ""Ih


H
A'll
PIC'
R_P/ERdo
AVI Ann' Djy'd Y"tIId
3<5 AhIIlllll (SnIIJI) A

An.,

28.'"

".10
1.170

"'".0...
'-

..

1.1%

~.

,..

..'"
~'"
IIW""

.....

fOod
its

I:.sl-

Nev. DivQends prO" tl1996 rapresant avg. or


Cms B.oo conmon A:lck dMdetl:l peyout.
CD)In mi., .diJ:dlKI to- splits.

N ~.-..d.
r-aulllUlfrilJ a DI:ilIiIed I7DlII _
~
10.'"
MIli5 p1IIIidrlIwIUII..-.s rI
UJ:d.
OR Alf'f ERRORS OR OMIsgONS HEREWiI. 1li5 ~
il;
sb!;cibe(s
_.
~-taIIIlIftiII..tmIII wse~ ~
*ari;
cr dIB ~ (f IMd b v-*'9 (f

fIlJ pMIII_ ...


~,
WID w paUL

SE\.[

Rn5I*d in..,. pIi-.

2000 2001 "VALIJELJljEP\Jll tiC. O:HIS


pII'M A
12.13
1194
1(10
lU5 R.......

1995 1~99

7.00
1.14
.63
.12

12
10

doing well. The 175-room addition to the


Hilton Milwaukee C~
Center (HMCC)
It's was flnlshed in June.
e the new meetbeen nearly two years since the Baymont Ing space there should help coun the busIness customer, the adjacent indoor water
Inns & Suites name was launched to
don this business In the mid-priced odg- parl<, Paradise Landing (recently opened),
ing market segment. Under the old Budg- is the first of its kind in an urban hotel
etel moniker. the company's Image (and and will probably attract more families.
prlcIng structure) was one of an economy- Marcus will Ukely ~
the construction
hotel chain. Since then, Marcus has added costs relating to HMC 's expansion this
several arnenJUes. such as a lobby break- fiscal year (2001). which ends In May.
fast and inroom ] nternet access. and has The Theatres division is staying ~fsharply Increased the marketing and ad- itBble amid a sea of competitors
red.
vertising of the more upscale seVice.The ink. Over the past year, the highly rompestrategy Is starting to pay dividends, as Uthoe movie theatre Industry has seen
more business travelers are now vtslting such tremendous overbuilding on the part
Baymont. And as a result of this more of the screen operators that several lafBe
buslness-oriented customer profile. reser- players have flied for bankruptcy. The fact
vations made through travel agents are on that Marcus has escaped similar fate can
the rise. 1l1at's probably why segment op- be attrlbuted to the rompany's owning
erating income rose Cor the third straight
most of its real estate. A deluge of popular
quarter, and revenue per available room fllm releases would certainly help. but
advanced Corthe fourth time in a row. We competing forms. of entertainment wlU still
expect revenue growth to Improve In the k""p ~SSW"f'
on this unit In the years
told,
coming months. thanks In part to the ahe8d.
We're
neutral
on
Marcus stock for the
stepped-u~ advertising. Recent price hikes
should he p, too.
forthcoming six- to lZ-month period..
is
Todd A. Schwartzman
Nuvember 24. 2000
Th" Hotels and Resorts segment
H''''I,,",):
.... ": "96. 50;.... __ .""" ... "81" F.b., .'Y ........... : ~

p...- .. ""- "" .. ....,.,.

(f

. .....

.1

F
QUARTElLYRMMIES~oaj'
FISQlI
AugPerNov.Plr Flb.Per II., I'Ir y."
1997
n.9 64.8 63.2 91.5 303.4
335.8
1991
SO.1
71.2
71.2 103.3
107.4
88.0
85.3 382.H
1999
82.2
86.7
3521
2000
77.4
77.4
110.'
ZOD1 1118.8 ,1.2
12.5 12.5 Jf5
F
Rocol
~GS
IlfR SHAREA.
You
ug.Per Nov.Ptr Feb.Per lay P. Y..,
1.04
1997
.23
.13
.39
29
1.02
1991
.-14
.23
.10
25
.77
1999
.02
.09
.47
.'H
.10
.71
2000
."2
.17
.02
.70
2001
.15
.05
.11
.38
QUAIlYBlLTONilEllOS PAID
C
F
CaIo
Ilr.31 Jun..3D Sep.30 Dec.31 Yoa,
..
.16
1996
.047
.05
.06
.21
1997
.06
.063 .063
.06
.22
1991
.066 .066
.066 .066
.22
.066 .066
1999
.066 .066
2000
.066
.066 .066 .055
(A' ,-"",,_
........
Moy.
August, Nov., Feb. periods, 12 'ln8ts; MIy pe- (8). N8x1egs. rpI. due mii-Ji!ln. (e) B~n
riXl, 16 .... ks. 13-wt1e1tpernds ther8IfI8r.
payhg qUy. divs. May 1996. Next. dWd 1Jig.
(8) PmIiIry egs. ttnJ. '97, then dJutad. ExcI.
!ale Dee.. Ned u diDI IIIIe "'n. Div'd pni..
Aocol

il..,

. .. ..

to JDake
70.5 6f.1 Marcus Corp. continues
progress with the rebranding
Put Est'd 'ISo '00 Umlted-Service
Lodging segment.

."''15
"7.0%
...
5.5~

8.0%

lEI
.2'1llQ, 'blI.1.iJr ~
THE PU8LJSil[R IS M)1 RE
d
lie ~
*-':I

r-'"

25
20
10

303.4
335!
362~
435
352.'
295%
24.6% 25.1% Z6SJ
aK
36.3
40.5
45.0
28.9
32.S
5S.0
O~=WI
3D.H
23.1
212
Zf15 Not .... "
3D!
39.7% 40.0\ .co.5" ..co.7% 40SJ Inc:anI. Tu Rat
4U"
6.0%
8.7%
102%
H2% 6.%
5.R No' .... "Mqln
7.4%
d30.7
<1265 d37.6
d32.7 <1421 d65.0 W"""H Cop' l!nll)
<1175
116.
168.1
2&13
205.6 264.3
lZ5
LonHT"" Oobt ($mIII1
~1.t.5 25tJ m~ 3025 313.6
3251
JJI ""_I~i
40!
8.0%
82%
7.4% 5.4%
4.H% ~K Rlllm (II TaW Cap'
8.4%
<0%
11.3% 10...
11.1% '0.2%
7.4%
8.0%
6.5'
R_on ..... ' .....
5.4%
4.6%
93%
9.1'
B.4'
B."
'.K
:~
..... C... '"
16%
27%
3D%
34.
23%
20%
'6%
Not Prof
BUSINESS: The Marcus CorpcnIion operates hctela & motor i'lns elude 30 KFC unib in WI. Sok:I is 18 AppIebee'5 units fil95. Has
(65% rI '00 ........ from coot. opt.) and fT'DYili theaters (35%). Lodg- lbolrt 7,000 empby88S. 2,260 stockhoklerl. orrs. and On.. axrtrol
I'Ig opera!em indude .t:J(llri 171 8lIJ"OOIll'motets in 30 stnis; 7 lboul 48% of a:mmon votng power, own 23% of ill sh...,. (MJO
hotels & 2 resorts in WI. MN, IfId CA.; and 7 Woodfei1 SuIJe5 i'll., PJOlY).Chainnln & CEO: Stephen H. IotIlCUS.Inc..: WI. Addn!ss:
WI, CO, OH, and TX. Theater op8l'il.1ion$U;:Iude 487 Iatl8I'IS il 2SO EasI Wis:onSl'1 Avenue, Suite 1700, Miwlukee, WISCOllSin
WI, OH, Il, an:l UN. Disoml'd. (b' sail) resl;IUllrrl frand1_ il- 53202. Telephone: 414-905-1000. Inlsmet: mEus::orp.CXlITI.

7.7,

---

'"

I.S

6.23

.-

..

Target Price Range


2003 200. 2005

B.2

"

38.""

..

1.6%

15.3

16.3
10.5

II'''""

....... /" ..

,n

De"'"

19.1
12A

IIJ)

.,,

..

,'"

"'... "'E'

Other

13.5

1.1'

.52
.08
.09
.10
.06
,.33
1.66
.!Il
'-58 1.08 ,-,.
3&
.4.16
4.64
.4.97
S.58
2.68
5.
",.w
25.11
"'.1
JU.'"
,5
11.6
H.4
13.1
11.6
15.6
1'-'
9~
9~ 11.'
!8
.Hl
.60
.58
.77
.87
.7H
.96
'-04
.7'
1.%
1.!%
21%
20%
1.6%
1~%
1.6%
1.3%
I.S'Io
116.6 188.0
204.3 2'4.0
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE u of 1124100
lClblI Deb!: $313.9 mi. Du. in 5 YrsSl20.0ml.
21.5% 232% 23.8'" 24.6%
LTInt...-l $t9.0mi.
LT D.bt $299.1 mi.
15.1
1U
11.6
18.3
(Total inInsIlXMlIiIIge: 2.711)
11.6
13.3
16.5
'O!
147% of Ca,ij
34.2%
39.5" 39.'%
Lus ... UhCl.pttaflDd Annual rentals $1.4 mIL
6.2%
65%
7.7%
Pen~lon U.b11ttyNone
6.1'
Pfd Stock None
<12.0 d1D.3
d9~
d3.8
Common Slocli 29,139,783 shs. 1S3%ofCa,ij
66.6
96.2 100.0
79.0
Common sh .. : 17,245,406; Claa B shl..:
11.4}
tW.O
124.9 174.0
11,894.3n; I-btjers of B sl1areS rvceive 10
7A1
7.6%
7.7%
votes/sII.; hc*Sers of CXlITImonreceive one vclE!lsh.
10.6%
9.5%
and 110'l10of dividends paid on each B sh.
10.'"
'
D
."
MARKET CAP: 54Z5 million (Small Clp)
82.
B1%
7.9'%
B.B'
812.....
CURRENT POSrrlON
2000
18%
19%
18%
11'0
Inventory (A.vg Cst)
Othe'

13.9

'I

"'I.,

12801

5.45
.71
.34
.06
1.50
2.&5

Curnmt AsMts

11.4

11,11

"l:::;StJd '" --'s nussbI

33 sh.r

12457

IlIIlLl
Ca"'_
ReC8iY8b1es

20.9

~VlJ

P-n:ent '.5

23

5.13
.65
.32

18B

J-for-2

1984 1985 1986 1987 198B 1989 1990 1991 199~1994


U8
.56
.28
.05
.51
2.43

18.3

=-511~smvrr

.... "lOI ..,.I. ...... ,.


'"

1 1~

10.7

B.B

~F1NE
PI lIAr/(} 153

".0

Instltuttonal Declslone
28

13.1

12.2

T""Hu.:: lto
lledi..

a:.m farQp '"

l-far2~
l-b-2 ~

Insider Decision.
DJF.A_JJA
a 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
o 0 0 000 0 0 0
.5.

.'"
"".

15 PIlIATIO221(

PRICE

5~1
A.O

LEGENDS
6.5 I

carr

MARCUS CORP. NYSEI/CS


I

SIDcIl.'s rice S1I.btlty


PI'D Growth PlirsillMM:e
Elml. PrMllc:tablilJ
,

I .,

75
40
65

II:

II

MODINE3 __MFG. NDQ.IIODJ


lWEUllES5

3 NeI'll21.90
__

SAfElY

Low:

7.7

11.5
'.6

14A

18.9
11.8

7.'

AIm' 10lil

....

....:::'1 ,~..,...

30.3

31.3

40.5

17.5

23."

23.8

2.fo!-\~

ZI9l

_.

22.5

2.4.5

38."
28 .

38.0
23.0

3.6%
Target Pric. Range
2003 2004 200S

29.9
19.9

."
....

36.0

DI'I'D
YlD

idalrs ,eaOSSiDn

R_

NDJFIII

29.8

'00
so

t'n~l20"

+90%
+20'%
Ir.-Ider Decisions

TIIE
PUAOO

lIedi.d4J13A

PrU SZUllg11

. _ .
R..-e
2-b'1"
~

2003-05 PROJ'~""_
pr;"
55
35

123(Triinl )!F 088

7.5.CI1IIfm"pm

1ft.... 15 (1.IXl_ "'-"4)

11.0

Pf
!lAOO

LEGENDS

TECHNICAl.

HIgh:

I=' 29

JJ

..,

,- -.. ~.

220011010
002001003
432332012
InstHutioMI DKlsion.

.... .
"
,~
....
"'89

,.111"10

..

".'

Percent

35
l38BO

,.,1

,,"

...

1,,11"'1

..

..

'"

.1,1

1- - e

'"

2.

..

12
",

".

..

. ....

II

... ....... ....~,

"" TOT. RfT1AIIIDO

....

,
8

.."

1" .

,,,. ,.,

lihar ..

28

.."

40

20
18

. .... .. ...

6.0

- -- - --

1.",1 I

3".

'2

1>2

36.1

106.8

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1998
1999
2000
2001
C VALUEUNEPUB_IIC. 03-45
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1994
199.
1998
1997
14.25
14.81
16.34
37.64
38.93 nl0
.,.70 SIIeI pi!' III II.
10.18 10.36 I1.9S 1315
17.94
19.33
22.50 30.09
32.61 32.93 35.D7
5/l.811
.45 Cuh_""Ih
~ 1.01 1.0lI 1.30 1.37 1.43 1.42 1M 2.01 2.40 3.39 3.33 3.47 3.OS 4.00 3.90 .10
l.JS
.87
.61
.63
~ Earnings pII' It! All
.~
!9
1.12
1.41
214
~02
2.10
2.39
~46
~20
1.J5
.70
.55
.84
1JI
-5,
.26
.30
.14
.38
.42
.46
.76
.61
.92
1.811 tOll DiY'd. Ded'd per III C
.14
.17
.19
12
.50
.68
U2
,Ol
3.0lI
3.0lI
.48
.70
.96
.51
.41
.49
.49
.00
.96
1.12
~90
~as CII'I Sponciog "" ..
1.'"
<72
1."
5.75
613
5.95
7.32
7-55
8.50 10.16
12.71 1.424 15.35 16.41
1<71
lU5 BoaIr;VMlepll"M D
3.69
4.1.4
4.50
5.16
11.52
2135
. 5
29.41
.Ol
9
11.4
101
9.7
151
13.3
15.4
11.-4
15.1
1~5
13.4
13.3
1~5
5.0
7-5
10.4
1<5
AVII Ann! ~~ Il~
.86
.81
1.13
.OS
.93
.71
.69
.72
RIIItiYI PIE RItIo
.47
.51
.68
.70
1.03
.13
1.01
.71
,,%
4.0%
3.4%
3-5% 31%
1.9% 1."
~O% 2n
H%
2-5% 3.'%
Avg Ann' Div'd YiIId
20ft
3."
3."
2."
CAPITAL STRUCTURE .. of II2MM)
482.0 526.5 570.8 669.6 913.0 990.'
999.0 I040A 1111.4 1139.3
1145
1195 _1$II1II) A
loti' Debt $193.2 mil. Oueln 5 Yrs SlOC1.0mi.
% O......
lln
141% 13.0% 14.0% ,...
M....
14.!ll
13.5'" 14.6' 15.6" 16.0% 13.5% 14.3' 15.3%
LTImNSt $8.5 mil.
LYD.btS186.2mil.
231
26.9
441
48.8
25.5
28.1
34-5
39.6
41-5
41.8
5IJ.0
W 0"""'_
15..
(hi)
Imsrest not cov8l8d.
168
26.7
33.7
43.1
68.4
W
61.4
63~
710 Nil ""fiIllnoll
11.
72' m 55.4
(27% '" Ca,O
38.9'4 35.4% 37.7% 41.0% 37." 38.'% 34~% 31.5'
31.011 31." J6.0% 35.8ll IncomI 10 Rd
.17."
Pension UabJRty None
3.9'4
5.91
7-5% 6.2%
7.01
6.71
61% 6.3% NIl "" .. Msr;jo
5.1"
U%
5."
6."
6."
PM Stocll None
124.0
126.5 126~ 131.8
170.7
110.3
196.1
200-5 196.5 254.1
25IJ
m WOIIdng CapT (lnoII)
_ ilmIIl
86.1
74.3
62.4
71.6
Bl.8
89.6
143.8 211.1
110
175 long''''
150
521
OS.2
Commcn StocIr. 29,275,433 shari's..
205.0 215.0
223.1 251.7 3lllI.3 349.4 385.7
422-5 4531
4801
490
530 &hr.-...... /$nII1
7..
(73% of Ca,O
85m 8/4/00
7.6% 10.4' 132' 13.9" 19.1% 14.6% 14.0% 14.5"
12.8%
9.9'- 11.11% ll.O% Rltum emTatal Cap'l
ll.!ll
911
12.4\
"ARKET CAP: S8sa million (Small Cap)
1HlIi
22.21 17.6% 16.5% 172% 16.3% 13.6"1. 14.!ll 14.0% Rltum em StIr. EauItv
13.!ll
17.1'
711
8.0%
11.3% 11.8% 10.8%
18g,
II2UlO
9.6' 11.7% 17.2% 12.5'
CURRENT POSITION
"'% RIItaIned to Con Eq
t_lLl
371
321
341
42%
42Il All DiY'dslo Net. Prof
42Il
23%
32\
4"
"I 4'"
3"
49.2
24.5
36A
Ca"'...187.4
182.9
Receiwbles
BUSINESS: Modine Manufadumg Company is an indepen:lenl,
1.6'" 01 sales. Made six acquisitions iI the past 2 ~.
Has about
'62.2
168.9
Inventory
(FIFO)
152.7
178.9
WOIt2wlle Iea:ler in IJem.hll5fer *hnolClgy serving vehiculrilr, ...
8,500 llIrllloyees; 2,700 sbckhoIders. Of"1C8ISand dilldon
own
.21
40.3
41.9
Otho'
453.1 ""'42i:'i duma!, buldilg HVAC (heirl.ing, v8flliBtion, ai" mndililnir!g), and ilbout 8,. 01 cortIl'lOI'l; M. Gabeli, 17.9% (MIO prtJiIy~ Chai"man
Curnutt A.aets
393.2
vamus ntplaammt and OEM mart .... Pnxludl indJde ading
and CEO: Richard T. Sav .
PresiSent Donald R Johnson. Inc.:
AcctIPayabie
97.4
94.0
94.3
vehicular
Wsconsin. AddI1lSS: 1500 OeKoven AvenLlll, Racine, WI 53403.
7.0 sysI8rrIlI (radiiltln) fDr engines and i'ldustiBl ~,
Oobt DuO
23.7
73.8
RIIS8iII1:h Ind Dlwelopmerrl: cosI&:
Telephone: 414-636-1200. In:emet www.rnOOna.arrl.
85.4
94.3 ill" an::IitDnfII's and h......
OIhor
94.7

..

'"

.....,:

~"

---=

""""

'~

,.
...

...

CUmllnl Liab.
ANNUAl

" .....

So ...

''Cash

RATES

0-011
Flaw"

~..

5::~

Book VillUli

192.7

Pal
11Yn.
10.0%
11.0%
10.5'4
12.5'4
10.5%

256..

Put

185.3

..........'"

Est'd'l7'.

n...
9.0"'"
8.5%
8.0%
12..5'4
12.0%

Q\JARmu.1 SALfS {loll

un.P.,
256.9
273.1
283.9

5.""

5.5~

e.""
7....

s.p.P.r Dee.P.r IIIr.31


1!197
260.8 2f>7.7 25M
1998
273.0 284.3 281.0
199t
286.7 283.5 285.2
37
2000 286.5 ~
ZIf
2001 295
3IJfJ
3IlD
3DIl
EARNINGS PER SHARE Ii
un.Per S.p.P., Dec..Per IIIr.31
8:::"
1997
.60
.60
.60
.59
.56
1998
.67
.63
.56
1999
.49
.65
.51
.55
2000
.61
.5S
.55
.IIJ
.IIJ
2001
.IIJ
.60
.15
QIlARTEJlLI OI'IIlEllOS PAlO '
Co.
.ndar Mu.31 Jun.30 60'..30 Doo.31
1996
.15
.17
.17
.17
,19
Il197
.17
.19
.19
1991 .19
.21
.21
.21
1999
.21
.23
.23
13
.23
.26
.26

~-

."

1(140.4

1111.4
1139.3
1145
1195

1!
2.39

~46
2.20

US
2.45
Full

Y..,
.65
.74

.82
.90

...

.."

"""

We expect
Modine Manufacturing's
~ns to ship the first EGR coolers in 2001.
sales to be flat and its earnings to ade roolers will be installed on Caterpillar
vance at a modest pace for 2000, due to engines for the on-highway vehicle marthe continued slump in the agricultural
keto Though Modine is not the only proand constructJon-equJpment markets and vJder of this technology, it is the first manthe weak eW'O.Farmers are experiencing ufaet.urer to bring it to market. In Europe.
Modine has already made deals with
record crop yields that are increasing
ply and driving commodity prices down
heavyweights In the auto Industry (MODI
a result. they are not purchasing new ma- will not dJsclose the names at this time) to
chines for their daily operations. Also, provide them with the cooler prodUCLThis
weak demand for heavy-mining machinery augurs well for Modine because we believe
has softened the comIiany's sales of cen- these partners hold the bulk of the d1eselstruction equipment.
owever. this reve- engine sector's market
We estimate
nue slide should be offset by the recent the technology will contribute $65 milpatent settlement and license contracts llon-S75 million annually to sales beginmade with 5howa Alwnlnurn and Mit- nlng In ftscal 2001 (ends Marcl131. 2002).
subtshi Heavy Industries. 1be settlement
This stock is an ave~e
selection for
landed Modtne Manufacturing more than year-ahead price pe ormance.
Much
$16 million, contingent royalties of nearly of MocUne's woes have come from a few
$27 mJllion in about a year. and addJtJonaJ weak markets and a negative currency exroyaltJes that could meet or exceed that change. We reconunend. investors wait for
amount aver the next eight years. All told, tangible evidence of a recovery in the
we project a sales growth of less than 1% agricultural- and col15truction-equipment
and a share net of $2.35; 6.5% above the markets before committing to this issue .
year-ago figure.
Too. total-return oriented acCDunts would
Caterpillar has chosen Modine to be likely fmd better capitalappredatlon
out
Jts
supplier
for
exhaust-gas-to 2003-2005 elsewhere .
recirculation
(EGR) coolers.
Modine Justin T: Sebastiana
October 6. 2000
134; .... 781; ii, 8;"92, (461' "" _"'M_.
Sop!.. 1Joam...
eanpa1.0F"'ndol
S1_",
B+

sut

share.

'-1.1-)' ....

J,,,,,.

(A) FOCoJ
__
M. 3111"'''
year.
~, 3t. Hex! 8lIf1Iings r.1D'! due mid-Clctlber.
(0) II'lduclGs irtIngibies. No fJ26IOO: $68.1 mi(B) Prinlwy 8inI~
IJrDugh fiscal 1996.
~ Nul: dividend meelng aboul No't. 121h.
Ion, S2..33Ish;n,
diuled tbIr8I.ft8'.
ckJdellIOIInICIImfIQ "am
8ll about Nov. 29th. ON. paymenl dates.: (E) In mili:lns, ICljustecl fDr spll.
ZUII. Yale Lne ~
~ AI ~
ree'IIlll. FIClIIII nRriII & atI~
rr- IIIIIIt1!!5 baneII kl lie rIIiIt'e IIId is IRfided 'ItlIoul. ......wes 11 ~ tilll.
THE PU8USI:R IS NOT RE PQItSIBLE: OR ANYr.RRORS OR OMISSIONS HERE...
is sHty far ~s
-. _~
iIffrIII use.
r-'l
IlIt
tIe"PudIDIL5kndIl"--...edillllJ~~II"CIIIII'bm.G~"
. Grill'
.
0'1liIdrCIr'iC
. ~CI

TIIis"""

Sbcl.. rice Stablity


Pib

7S
40
70

Growth PlirslDnce

Earnlnp PrlClcb.b11tly
'

I .,

: I I:

II

P.I:
MOO 9 9
8
2
NORTHROP
GRUMMAN
NYSE.NOC I~~flr
2 .....
_
34.'

~~,I ,..~
I
16.0

TllEUIIESS

32 .....
..... 'n..
,_

SAFT1

:'%

GMI

'6.5

22.5

42.6

47.4

3O.S

34.5

:::'1

109
124
125
1000200B
51,..

127.9
71.4

139.0
59.3

75.9
47.0

1"1.,'1"

~~~fea!mm1

180 ("i~20~'
120
+45% 23"
12%

- .- .- ...

.. .3

51.6

Target Price R.n~


2003 200.
200S

93.9
42.e

LEGENDS
1.0 I et.,n FIlMOp!lll
RIMve Pm SIrslgll

Reun

Insider Oeciaion.
F.AIIJJASO
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
001
1 0 0 0 0 0
000 300 001
InaUlutional
O.claJonl

.....,.
....

".3
3 .8

0 69 DIV'D
YlII
2.1%
- -- - --

... -

TECHNICAL
IlETA .so {lm-1IlIrUtl
~,
PKOJECT1ONS
Ann, TDIII
PrtCli

31.3

20.'
13.8

Low:

(Trlllng:
lI.di.dl.llg~~rwTNE
PfRATI>

Il"'.':"-I

,fl.'..':'r..

"'1'/

'.-'. I"I

,I.. I:.

..
P~nt12.0
.h.......

'23

117 traded
00633

......

,."1

, .'

"I

'

".

....
..

'00
'26
80

'11",1

40
32

,1'-1"

..

,lI

--.

200

'

.. ..

....

"

....

D~

4.0

.'.

16

..

,w.-= -

'" Tat RE11AI "laD

:::::=: 3Jf.
yr.
~l

5 yr.

12

oU

55.2

.11.1
54.2

19.7
153.-4

03-45
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199' 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ~YALIEUlreNl.INC.
10922 120.41 129.21 123.62 111.83 116.96 120.92 117.09
5,93
135
6.1lfJ 7.42
S,73
7.74
1.28
'.34
d.79 d1.3S 3.00 3,79 U6
!9
2.D1
3~1
1.211 1.20
1.211 1.211
1.211 1.211 1.211 1.20
3ill
LOO
'-'I
IJIl
8.l!l
628
5.'2
'OIl
18.65 22,00 25.11 26.<6
2HD
19.42
1929
2013
.. ,.
".00 ... "
..
S.7
6.5
NMF
102
12.7
20.9
..
.. .'2
,62
.2
.79 1.03 NMF 1.<0
,,9'1\
7.1%
2.9~ 2.6~
2.7'1\ 2.9'1\ '.0%
'.9~
'.6~
CAPrrAl STRUCTURf as of II3MIO
5<89.9 56941 55OD.ll
Due ... 5 Vrs $800 mill.
lotll Debl $1820 nil
6.7'1\ 92~
7n~
Tatallnt.rnt $142 mIL
LTDebtSl605mill.
186.6
171.3 160.0
(Esl'd 2000LT iTt8ns1 earned: 7.6JI:;total rrt.est
141.1 1781 121.0
COVIlI3ge: 6.6)
(JO"' of Cap1)
35,7'1\ 32.B~
32.6'
Laues, UnCllpitalizMl Annualmnlals $93 mil.
2,61
Z2~
Pealon Ulbiltfy" SI095 milllf WJWO "S.
3.1'
$1458 nil. in '99
571.0
610.6
354.11
690.7 410.0
160n
PIlI Stoct. None
1032.6 1182.-4 1254.0
9.8~ 12,B~
9.1%
(70% of Cap'l)
CommDII Stock 71,813,318 shs .
8S of 1t1U!OO
13.1"
15.''''
'.6"
MARKET CAP: SSS billon (Large Cap)
81~
10.3%
5.'%
CURRENT POSITION
32~
47~
79.99
6.62
3.63
.90
1,45
15.72
"'10
8.S

..

..

"""'"
'''' 1""
142
753

~lL)

Co "'-

Receivables
~ntDIy (Avg Cst)

'5ll7
1373

Current AsseIs
~Payilble
Deb!. Due

3033

""""

,..,2

...

603

,..

2793

2709

490

22"

269

..
....
1292

1190
59

'00

17-49

21S

"'"

103~1
6....
1.99

13629
1t!'.-46
5,00

1.60

1.60

2.14
21,03

5.11

139.33
1D.1:.6
3.99

1.60

1.60

2.72
2.69
26.211 29.50

335
36.74
5 .
17.5
1.10
2.3~

137.34
tDn

,","

18.5
1.09
4.4\

8~
54
3,9~

10.4
.70
3.0\

5063.0

6111.0 6818.0
11110 12.0\
214.0
269.0 263.0
1lfJ,0 2.... 0 252.0
36,8~ 38.4%
1.9%
3.7'1\ 3.71
<81.0 ...In
357.0
160.0 1633.0 1163.0
1322.0 1290.0 1459.0
10110 11.B%
7.7'"
IJ"
19.'" 17.3%
U~ 12.9'1\ 11.9%
31~
8ll~
32\
8.6\

.,.~

1225
Sill

129.32
1027
'~2

129.02
lZ5f
.. 3

1.60

,."

1.60

1.60
2.""

38,99

3.u7
41.40

...

21.1
1.11)
1.7~
8902.11
12.9'4
393.0
314.0
36.9~
35~
666.6
2562.0
2850n
1.7%
11.0"
71~
35~

136.Cli

16"
1.6~

8011.0 9153.0
12.7'1\ "1~
367.0 418.0
216.0
<01.0
39,3~ 37.5"4

2.1"

.....

"

221.0
d3n
2950.0 2500.0
2128.0 2623.0
6.6% 10.2%
10.2' 15.5"
6.2% 11.6%
39~
... flu nBII'I segments,

25"

BUSINESS: Ncri1rnp Grumman ~


II1cl. mil & amnl i1i"a'a1, .Ied. & SysBns Ynrqatim, data sys.
terns, and missiles & urmanned Ylthidll 1)'St. U.S. Gov, '*1 of
llbout 79% at salel, BoeiIg, 8%. Aequ. Grunmln Carp . 04.94; its
1ilma11: ill prod. Sliill i'1 adMt usa n:t. 62, F.14D, EA-6B, E-2C,
& E-8A (JSTARS). k;q. Westinghouse
d8f. &eI8d., 3196: logmn.

....n
9.1
52
2.5~
6995.0
15.1111
389.0
<83,0
36.6~
5.4"

115.511

'J.JI
1M
1..

..

51.'&

115M SIIospor'"
15.SS "Ca""_por""

S....

1.1.811
IUI

EnillllpII'lhA

lJ.J1

1.75 Div'd. Dld'd .. 1Il I!!la


2.11 Cop' Spain; porI.
.... 5 100II YIIuI ...
C

......... ....~:::...

2...
1U5

,,~

IZJIIl

......
'IP
R_PlE_
Awg Ann' CiY'c1 YWd

,-,.
.75

'.Ill

""" ,,~I""""Ii_
'U"
0"""'_11n1l)"

19.5'1l
37'

3U%

....

I.21j

SIIosflnoll)

31'

121 Not

371

Protl linin

3U% InccnITu RIll


U1f, Not Pra8t bgin

329.11
les W_; Cop' Ilnll)
ml.O
1/IIIIJ LangT ... 00bI (lnII)
1"'"
i
3251.0
.""
RIUn ClIIToW tip"
11.1"
I""
I<J% f5.llll R
'4.8%
.... '" 611<.
R_ ..CaEEq
12~
11.4' '3 ....
23~ ,n In AI Dtv'ds to NIl Prof

Sh,.-..... ,...

,~'"'

e"""

31.5"
8.5ll
50S

6880

,'-"'
l1llll
12.""

In

7197. Has Ibl 44,600 empIs,., 11,135 atkhkh. '99 dep. rate: 13.4%.
011'. & Oi". c:ontrol Db' 1.6% of .k.; .-npl plans, 6.9%; W.. r.gtM1
MaRllgemel'll, 6.8%; U.S. Trust, 12.8% (ire. empL plans) (4.llO
Proxy). Cmnn., Pres. & CEO: Kent Kntsa. 11ICXlfJXlI'III.: DeIlMw8.
Address: 1840 Cer*Jry Pk. East, l.r8 Angeles, CIIbniB
!lOO61.
T9Iephone: 31G-55J.Q62. In!:BnKIt .... .northgnm.axn.

As a result of recent stock-market


trimming related staff. About 75% of the
weakness. we've lowered OlU" sights
goal has reportedly already been achieved.
for Northrop Grumman's earnings
in 'lbe
company's
configuration
is
1t't ....
~_IPor")
2001. Pension income has become 1ncre8S- changing.
In mld-2000,
It sold Its
...
s....
1.011
1.0'4
2.0%
ingly important to the: company in recent aerostruetures
unit. a key suppller to
"Cash Flow"
9.0%
8.5"
'.0%
Earni'lgs
13.0%
15.5"
years, with about 75% of pension assets in~ Boeing. It later acqulred Comptek ReDiYi:lends
3.0'4
2.0%
7.'"
vested in equities. Indeed, NG estimates
search. Federal Data, and 5terUng Sofl:BookVal~
7.5%
10.0%
J3-'"
that pension aedlts
will provide some ware. 1ben, on December 21st. Northrop
eo.
llUARTERLTSAlf5J oAl
Fu'
v_ 5560 million In 2000 (about 55.00 a share). agreed to par.; 55.1 b1lll0n In stock and asIlar.31 Jun.30 S.p.;
Dtc.31
.ndar
1bIs faclor added 53.21 to 1999 share swned debt or Litton Industries. The deal
2510
1997 2118
9153
2228
earnings, up in a steady surge from only would Jikely be accretive. but is subject to
8902
1.
201. 2139 2213 2536
50.35 In 1996. Northrop records penslon- govenunental approvals.
2506
8996
1999 2O!l3 227. 2122
fund income in the subsequent year's prof~ Northrop Grumman is a big generator
7MID
1802 1856 1731 2211
its, and recent company eanl1ngs guidance of "Cash Flow". some of which It Is using
2IllI 2175 2'75
2225
has pointed toward a reduced benefit of to acquire complementary operations (see
EARJMGS PER SKARE A
CoJ.
Fu'
about 5450 mllllon to 5470 mUllon from the previous t:oarawaPh), to pay down lis
Ilar.31 Jon.30 ~,ia De<.31 ythis source for next year's bottom line.
debt, and to
Ister its finances. As a re1.70
1.59
5.96
1997
1.25
1.40
earnings quality is improving.
suit, it should be able to handUy adjust to
d,04 '.52 But
1.55
1.34
1.67
Northrop estimates that, excluding pen- the scheduled payment of 51 bUUon of
1.96
6,93
1999
1.50
1.60
1.83
sion income, profits are likely to Increase
deferred taxes related to the B-2 program
Uf
2.50
2.11
1.10
2.23
2.JJIj
gm dUrlng 2001 by at least 1596as the campa- that is due during 2002.
2.5Il
US
2OlI1
225
ny benefits from its refocusing program.
Northrop
Grumman
should register a
QIJARlBlLVO_PMI""
Co.
Fu'
NC has had to deal with the replacement
solid earnings increase over the comVur
IlarJ1 J ... .lO ... .3ll DocJ1
of very large revenues derived from the log 3 to 5 years. Nonetheless, Its tlme1y
,00
,00
.00
.<0
1.60 B-2 bomber program, which is now being stock. is no lon~er an attractive purchase
1996
,00
1.60 completed. The company seeks to trim
1997
.00
.00
.00
for the haw to 003 to 2005 since Us price
,00
.<0
.00
1.60
.00
,00
1.60 5300 million a year in costs. It has shed has about doubled since early 2000.
.00
.00
1999
.00
numerous fadllties deemed excess, while Morton L. Siegel
December29. 2000
.
00
.00
Prira'y egs. t/WDtJgh 1996, then dlJled.
"OO,~. Nu:t egs. rpt. due mil-feb.
1VbIll. Ie) Incl. mango 8SM'IS. A! 9J3OIOO:
Comp~
FInlIlclt.1 Strtnglll
8+

2367

Cu~nl:Uab.

ANNUAL RATES

Put

Put

"

-,.
-

.....

2....

.......

&t'd'l7-'.

--

.....

,.

rk

,..,

..,

r~

(8) Net! div'd mlg. IIb1F.tI. 15. Nut ax dBte $4.134 bil. $51.S7/Sh. (D) In mIDil..
Stock's
rica StabiIly
abl Feb. 20. Oiv'd pml1t. dls .. abl the tOG'! d
Oepr. on KCtltIIf1dBd basis.
pn:. GrowtII ~
M... , J',,", Sopl. Dee D". nom .... ",.
eon.... '" """"" ""no """"...
~
o 2lX1Q. 'Mle 1M ~
~
raerNl. FattIIIIl'IIMiIl
i5 olUmed _
-.te5Il1Me'1e1111&o be t1IiItIII end is ptWed ......
...-s d ~ UML
TllEPUBU'Stt:.RISNOTRE
tE ORMYERRORSOROMSSlONSHER[W.lhis~isJD:lyb~5o.t,llCIl
n dilLft~II~.
DpM

.",
eI I..., tit ....
~
II D&I*d ilq .... -.ri: II dtB bnI. II II5fIII fa' generIlinJ go ~
~
pi'IIalll eIIdIfIic fM**n. sena II pOlbl:L

grJ5. {Iossas}: '85. $l.0Ii; 88,


$3.01; '89, (36J, '90, '1.048; '91, ~J: '94',
($4~8l "96. 34f: "98, ($1.73l . 12'11:
nornctI'".

75
55
:11:

II',

OM GROUP. INC. NYSE.()IIG


I

3 lllIe'edl2t1.m
3 ... 1I25S9
3 """', ....

lIIEUlE55
SAfElY
TECHNICAL

I~CfNI
PRICE
RAOO. 1 05 DIV'D
ILD
1.0%
50 RAOO 15 4e"i"l:11'1~~TNE
Pf

lEGENDS
1D.5 I [J;11I1
....
R~PfCr5nl

High:

Low:

~~

..........

2llD3-05 PROJECT1ONS

28 ..
21.7

~s

'o!Cl!'ssiDn

.... '"'" 180~1 ""

--

50
22202

..

1985

..

..

..

..

1986

2292'

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

1987

..
..

1988

..

..
..

..
..

..
..

1989

1990

..

..
..
..

..
..
..

..

1991

1992

..
..

..
..

..

..
..

..

..

..
..

..
.-

N'

41' --ill

1.2-4.9

55,'

151.8

An acquisition

_.

_.

11"'1'

....,

'"

64

40
32

"

.....

'.

1993 1994
9.51 13.46
1.33
1.68
.95
1.09
..
.19
.41
1.08
6.68
7.56
18.7'
'~9
..
.85
.. 1.31
25U
179.'
19.4'
18.3'
10.7
86
15.4
20.7
3311
33"1
8.61
8.31
701
82.7
30.6
46.'
124.9 141.2
112%
14.7%
'~31
12.3% 12.2%
.. 171

......

..

F,.

F,.

F,'

.36
3.88
17.03
ZJ.72
'81
.95
1.0%

,,'"

1 yr.
3yr.
5 yr.

!3A

...

18.88

ZJ."
15.3
JfI
1.1%

34.5
20.7

411
19.7

2001
cYAl.UELliEI'JII.~C.
41.55 Salls""",
'7."
~II !III
'Cull flow" "" '"
"..
145 Elmnlll per III A
Dl'd' DIcI'd per th II
210
281 Cap1_,,,,,1h
21.111
'4JS Bool YIIu.pwlll C
2<lID
D.8I
"
Avg Ann I PIEROo
Rliltin PIERdo
A'll Ann' Wd YIIId
895 1l1t111

21.31
'-48
~3O
.40
~95

....

-.... - =..~

5211
507.0
21.6% 24.8\
2.5.5
26~
55.9
48.'
3211
30.5\
9.31 11.0%
3006
3nl
310.0 384~
404.1 4491
7.9%
7.8%
12.0% 12.4%
9.91 10.3%
171
171

N.""

71.5

lU%
US
41S

IiS6
5IJD
UI
14.J%
1211'_
15%

'UI

548 _-C
... )
US NolPloltl\nilll
3D.Bll tnant Tu R:dt
IS'4 NoI""'It~qin

.... -,Cap'IC"'1I)

8
8

f-

rf03-05
54f11
US
~65
.fII

'.ID
:J5.JS

...

......:: .....--

US
AI

1m
WI
65.S
115
31.1"
1ft
5SIl

!IS Loot"T"" (InIII)


!IS Sh,:EAnitv
C"'WI
IBll Rlun an ToIII Cap'
14.51 Rnrn on Silr. Equity
12.51 R.b*l1id to Con Eq
1411 AD DiY'di tl NIl Prof

655
865
1.01
f1S'Jl

11.51
f31

9Ktroni::s cus!. W dltpI8C. 1'irll!I: 6.2%. Emplcyl 1,053. 0I'1s. &


On. own 5.7% of stk.; 81lI'OIICap. Gn:Np, 13.9%; PriTlecap,.m.,
6.1%; Lord, Abbett, 5.2%; JIdI & V~
5.2%. (04100prory).
Chai'm.n & CEO: J....
P. Mooney. Pres.: Edward W. Kinellnc:.:
DE. Addn!ss: 50 Public Squant, 3500 T.n-..I TOWII, CIBveBnd,

OH 44113-2204. Tel: 216 781-0083. 1nt8'net www.omgicorn.

should, ultimately, help Oy add close to


$0.20 a share to this year's earnings, and
about $0.40 to share net In ZOO\.
Sales volumes are rising at each prod.uct
segment.. During the first nine
months
or ZOllO, phystcal ",Iurnes of
organic and inorganic prOOucts sold. as
weU as powder volumes. each rose at a
doub1e-<llglt clip from the slml1ar 1999 pe.
riod. Heading into 2001, OM sho~et
a
11ft from the ."llolng strong de
by
the Asian battery industry;. for batterygrade chemicals and robalt powder. ThIs
should help sales of inorganic and powder
products, respectively. As for organic
chemIcals. cobalt catalyst sales have been
strong across the globe all year. and remained so as this month began. Too,
demand. for plastiC additives in the
iaI
Paciflc region and a large Jwnp in metalpnxluct sales (thanks to Oy) will probably
continue to help generate steady ean'l1ngs
for OM for the foreseeable future.
Ithough these shares are no longer
timely. Investors should like OM's fairly
predictable earnlngs stream, particularly
in a nervous market climate .
Todd A. Schwartzman
December 22. 2000

Rsood

lalns

..I~I"m._.arI_......

;~

CAI......" _
~""",h '994 ....
_
......
M.,.............
diJ1lll1. N8ll:f lillWnilgs repc:rt due IlaW Jan.
Sin d qh.. doesn't equal FY tlti!IJ due to
(B) NUl dN'dend IIl88II1g ellrIy Feb. Goes IX ~CI Indudes intangibles. In '99: $184.0 mi.. ItlUfIdng.
.bout Fib. 1Z. Apprm. div. pa)'IMn1 C1I1es:IIsI 7.73Ish.
IDllDl. VHIe l.N'
. Inc.,,'
~.
FKUlIlIIBiII
& otIIined "~
IMiewd ta be r.-.e l1li & fRWiIed .......
WImIIIies d
kiML
THEPUBUStl:R IS ~msR
Nfr [.RRORS OR 0MlS.Sl0NS H[Rf ... TIli5 .........
& snty kI"~
e-I. m
.....
c:iIl, irtllmlllM~
pIf1
d ~ "., be ~
WlnIlIl ~
.. .., JR*ll
II dh!I bill. f616td Iw ~
II" ~
my JIiI*d II" ~puIlitIIi:m.
5.Wlice II" ptllb:l

---=

126.2

..,.

rIG

199M
2UT
3.11
2.08

....

KMf7H.

'I. TO't RETURN 111DD

..

in A/,ril, ZOllOsharply
boosted OM Group s specialty-metal
A.NNUAL RATES p""
Pu' ER'd'l7'19
product
refining
capability.
OM"s
..... '15
Un.
.... CPo .. , 11Yn.
$187.7
million purchase of the nickel
15.0"
13.5"
_.
16.0~
''Cash Aaw"
refinery of Outokumpu Oy, located In Fin
15.5%
.. 15.0% 14.5"
E.milgs
land. was debt-financed. Prior to the Oy
.. 3t.[)%
DMd8nd&
9.0"
acquisition,
OMs
refining
prowess
Book V.lue
18.5%
1,(,0"
centered mostly on cobaltbased products.
Co).
QUAllTERl.Y
SAlfS
Now, the chemical maker Is leveraging its
.... u 1Iu.!1 Jun.3G SID.30 btc.31
VBO' expertise in cobalt with the new nickel
487.3 plant. The notable benefit here is that the
1997 110.1
124~ 125.3 126.6
5211
1991 138.1
1391
124.7 1192
two metals are both used In numerous
507.0
1991 114.1
123.8 132.1 137.0
common end-pnxJucts. For example, each
148.3 273.5
233.4 mJ ISS
ts foW'ldin rechargeable batteries and fuel
2101 ZJ
'49
'51 lf11111
cells, and is used extensively in the elecCo).
EARlllNG5 PER SHARE'
tronlcs and cerarnfcs industries. OM has
".r.31
JunJD S~30
1JIc.31 v.. ,
Ukely reaped incremental business by
.45
.46 1.78
1117
.43
A4
cross~selling nickel and cobalt to Us older
53 ~05 customers, as well as those of Oy .
I.
.48
51
53
~3QE
.60
1999
.54
.58
59
deal has proven to be an bnpor.63
.T6
.n .79 2J5 The
2100
tant one for sales and profits. Oy's
.19 145
21101
.11
.17
.II
55.000-ton-capactty refinery will probably
QUAIl78lI.TO_PAII8
Co!11ft OM's sales by about 65%, on a full-year
.... u 1Iar.!1 Jun.3G Sep.30 Dec.31 Y.. ,
basJs. Although Us marglns are lower tJ1an
1991
.073
.073
.073 .071 29
of OM's other operations, this facU.08
.08
.os .32 those
ll17
.08
Ity is responsible for the overall sharp rise
.36
.09
.09
.ll!I
1991
.09
produetion at OM. Coupled with manu1999
.10
.'0
.'0 .10 .40 In
facturing synergies, this increased output
.11
.11
2800
.11
.11

"'8S

..
2<
20

~I

..

119.6

100

"'

,I

7.5

2..

...

ClJrTllntliab.

I"

..

-- - - -- - --

'2
....

..

""" ...,....
"""Duo
""""

Target Price Rangll


2003 2004
2005

51.7
33.6

Ihll'll

1995 1996
1997
19.18 20.84 22.08
..
..
..
2.46
UO
W
..
..
..
..
1.35
11>6 1.78
..
..
..
..
~2
19
l'
.,
..
..
.
..
..
1.68
1.51
1.56
..
..
..
..
..
..
8.51
9.95 13.65
..
..
..
..
..
..
18.'"
22.07
..
..
..
..
..
..
161
18.8
13.5
..
..
..
..
..
..
.~
1.01
1.08
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
UI
1.11
1.01
..
..
CAPITAl. STlWCTURE u of II3lMIO
361.0 388.0 481.3
T.I DellI $583.5 mi. Due in 5 Vrs $325.0 mil.
..
..
..
16.0% 17.3'1 18.8%
LT1m""
$tO.Omil.
LTDebI$.5M.Omil.
..
..
13.7
15.8
211
(Total i1IBrtIst ca.erage: 3.5t)
C64%"CaP~
..
..
..
25.9
30.'
38.'
..
..
..
32.7% 32.3% 33n
Lea .. , UllCllpltlIimd
None
..
..
Pension Lllbiity $13.5 ml. i1'99 n. $24.7 mI.
711
7.7%
7'"
..
..
..
146]
113.9 224.1
Pfd Stock None
..
..
..
99.8 109.3 170.3
..
..
..
161.4 185.3 301.2
Common StocIl. 23,806.821 shares (46% of Cap'ij
..
11.4'1. 11.5%
9.6%
..
..
..
MARKETCA.P: 11.2 bllion (Mid ClIp)
16.1% 162"
12.81
..
..
..
13.3% 13.3" 10.5'
..
..
9131WO
CURRENT POSrnON
lOll
181
'118
'81
'7%
15.7
Ca~U.I
......
7.S
9.4
BUSINESS: OM Group, fnc. IIOdUOllSrnont thIIn 400 metll-baIIed
80.9
100.5
ReC8ivilbla
'38.5
Speciaty chemicallo and pawden., pri'lc::ip,B1y derMKI frcrn cob8It,
373.6 copper, .nd nidteL Bta segments: IIlVbIIcabo:t)'tltes (25% of '99
2832
~'l'CUFO)
332."
86.7
48.3
54.3
614.5 sales} used iI detergerrls, fuel addili't'8l, lie..; Ilorg.nk: lTIi1al ab
CumlT11 AssBts
4202 -:m:li
biItI ...
and tther appkb:; mstaI
76.9 (43%) used n ~bIe
76.4
n.l
19.5 IlO'Mi&"I (32'10) IISI8d ill mining & mach. tDoII, & by aubnolive &
.1
1984

P.rc.nt
7' sta.,...
58 hd+d

78

42.S
26.5

25.0

II

"'"

85

-42.1
25.

,.

",,"'10lil

....:':'
,....
:::.

14.5

nc.Q~1I1

+20%
6%
SO
Insider Deetlilon.
JFM".JJAS
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
o 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
o 1 0 0 0 0 '00
Instltutlona' D.cjlJons

22.3

16.5
'2.S

3... 2.121!1i

IIlTA .15 (1.11l-1rWkl)

go

....

~edi.t. Pf

S1oct'l rice S1ablRly


Pr1ce Growth ,.~
EarnIngs PrdcblblltJ

"

65

95
95
: I I:

I I ,

OHIO CASUALTY
NDQ.OCAS
4 ,.... ,,,..,
I U
High:
Low:

TllEUNES.

3 ,....,1M1

SAfTY

.Ill O.llll .. ~,,1II)


2.forl!iP-I
2-101"-'"
21J03.OSPHOJEC11ONS
Ann, Total

1(1),

GM1

Pritl

:":

,,,- ,,,- "'"


40
52

54

ah.,..
P.~.",

V
0

sits.

...

,... ,

2415.9
924.9
301.9
1159.6

Due

Total Assets
Res'ves,Pntms
Policy Claims

........... ,

RATES

Post

'.'11
~O%
3.0%

4.0,,"
7.0,,"
10.0%

NE! PREII1UIIS
.DClar M.r.31 Jun.30
1991 301.8 31~2
1998 311.8 329.5
1991 397.4
403.5
2lIOO 394.6 382.2
2001 3f5
3f5
Ctl-

c
endu
19K
1991
1998
1999

739.3
1974.0

669.'
33BU

Pu'

,,"-1.5%

Esfd'l7'11

to"'''
5.0"
4.5"

-3.0"

3.0"
d9.5"

3.0,,"
4.5%
, 1.0%

WIIITTlII ~ 01.)
Sep.30
296.3
325.3
390.0
383.5
310

Dec.S1
285.3
4TO.1
396.0
314.1
31'

WIllIG. PERSHARE

CtJ.

1998
1999
2lIOO
2001

...... 3

691.6
3325.5

3481.3

~~=~

on'"
1991

376.5
939.2

725.'
1908.5

1956.9

Tecal LiabiitiBs

Book Value

7292

3662

855.8

Pntlnium kIc:
Invtsllncome

2421.4

2377.0
698.1

668.'

Othe<
ANNUAl

1/3',,"

1035.1
41102.3 4476.4

011'"

Target Pric. R.n~


2003 2004 2005

17.9

21.7
14.9

16.9

lIar,31 Jun.3D Sep.3D Dtc:J1


.46
.48
.31
.60
.47
.39
.16
.36
.18
.01
1.59
d.11
O.TO d.14
d.13
.11
./4
.16
.18
QUARTBlLY DIYItEtllS PAl) C [l
MarJ1 Jun.30 SeD.3D DK.31
.2lJ
.20
.2lJ
.Zll
.21
.21
.21
.21

.zz

.22

.22

.22

.22

.23
.23

.23
.12

.23
.12

.23
.12

(""'"-

(8) Pri ..... """ '96,.... _.


Ind. cap. g.. s (1Dsses): '89, (37);"90, (J9);
'S1, 13; '9Z, 97; "93, 73; 1M,4Of.!; '95, 11;;
.... "#: '97,!l6: '98, (3#1:.... $'.11: '110,
co llDl, VIlle liIe ~

riIfg .--.

'.,1

'.1

..

"II

-'

.. ".

....

.... ..

- -- - --

,
,

10

'.

'.

.."

Filii

Y..,
12lJ1.6
1431.3
1586.9

1545
141.
Fall
You
1.91
1.38
1.13
I1SO
.10
Full
Y..,
.60
M
.68
.92

'J2
"5
JiT
11.47
11.91
126\
10.1
.65
4.6\
1517.6
182\
1l.7\
3.9\
11.6%
91.1

8.8%

7.7%

7.1%

3253

"'31

651.2

m,

12.9'4

13.9%

3161
825.2
11.8%

6.0'"

82\
41\

6.3"
46\

53\

,"-"

-1.".

J yr.
5 yr.

,=
...

13.""

34.""

24""

~""
"'5 "..

"'"
1.5"

57.3

19.1
83.4

-44.2

0VALtreIJllfP\ll

IIC. ~5
2U'

PIC ..... &nod P '"


Imts1nllnt Inc P III A
UndlmtlnSlInc P Ih A
bmkIg .... '"
DiY'dl DKl'd pII' It! c: II
Book ValI1t pII" III

111/1
AI
%D.1O

ClIIIJIlon 5hllJUISfil

".111

Price to Book 'AIlII


",VII Ann'l PIE Rdo
R-.uv. PIERdo
AYSIAnn'l DiY'd YWd

PIC_EuMd
Lou III Pr1n EarMd
EI:I-I.lla PrIm WrtI
Undllnrrilna
I!
IncorIIe Tu RIll
NtlPlo8l_1
m-lncIT"m10111AtttIt (lnl)
Sh,. EqWtJ \1nII1'

M"

Rebnon Shr. E
Rmtned 10 CIII'I Eq
ADDh'd.lo IHt Prof

II

165
dJ5

..

tnI

.10
US

11lJD

12.""

3D.5S

%D.""
'%D
UlI

....
1245

U"

1.511
2'S

COITITIl!!fCial
muli-perI, 19%; other, 13". Hils aboUt 3,900 empbyees, 6,500 shilJeholders.. Otran
& dlvctors own 11.2" oIlX1l'1'1-mon stock: Fi'1I N.rl BanctlP, 10.0"; AnMD3n FlOlncial Group
Inc.., 9.1" (4100 PI"Cd:)'). ChlIlman: W."
Woodal Pnilidl!lnt &
CEO: Dan R. Garmi:hael
lne:: OH. Addr8sI: 136 N. Third St,
Hamilon, 00 .. 5025. Tel: 513-867'-3OOD. InIsnet www.ucas.axn.

BUSINESS: Ohio CaSlJaly Corp. is a hotIing axnpany. Own. IN!


Casually Insunnce Co., whi:h DWI'lS West AmBri::an Insurat1C8 Co., Ohio LIe lnsLJr.lt1C8 Co., Ohio Seariy Insunlnc:a Co.,
Ocasco 611(\9111(pn!ITUn ftnanciJg) & Arneran Fn and Casualty.
Mix of propertyfcaSlJaly 081 preniums ~n
111999: aubmbill!l,
45"; lDneow,1ln ftlJlli-peri, 11%; WOI1An. c:anpensri:x1, fZ";
Ohio

Ohio Casualty
has broadened
tho
scope of its turnaround eD'orts. In ordel" lo improve underwriting perl'onnance .
OCAS decided early In 1999 to lennlnate
$50 mllJion in premium volume related lo
its managing general agents. More recently, OCAS announced plans lo cancel additlonal agents. which as a group generate
about $100 mUllon in annual premJwns
(across most business lines) but have lossexpense ratios about 20 percentage points
hJgher than the company s average agent.
Management
is taking steps to improve results in its com.merdaJ business.
workers'Premiums
In
the
compensation segment grew 17% (to about
$150 mI11lon), through
the first three
quarters of 2000. However, Inadequate
pricing levels and a rise in claim severity
have caused underwriting
results
lo
weaken considerably In recent quarters. In
response, OCAS plans to not renew Its
most unprofitable workers' compensation
poUcles,
which
will
reduce
annual
premiums by $50 million. Lastly. a recent
easing of the competitive pricing environrnent has enabled OCAS to raise prices in
Its commerdal business lines. Average

renewal rales were up 9% In the thin:!


quarter, suggesting better performance as
the premiwns are earned in 2001.
Cost-cutting
efforts are becoming increasingly
important.
Salaries and related expenses were down $9 mUllon
(about 16%) In the first three quarters of
2000, prImar1ly due to a reduced worl<force. The expense ratio improved 46 basis
points,
to 33.6%. in the third quarter.
However, this level remains above the IndusUy average. suggesttng the need for
further cost savings, espeda1\y considering
the planned reduction in premlwns.
These shares are not a timely selection for the year ahead OCAS faces
continued
challenges
in the
coming
quarters.
as expenses
will have to be
reduced to offset ina=uate
rate levels .
The recent operating
cultles have also
raised
concerns about the company's
statutory
capital
surplus.
which
at
midyear 2000 nearly fell below the $750
million minlmum required In its loan covenants. The slock's depressed price might
attract value-orienled investors, but we
advise most to look elseWhere.
Gerard Feenan
December 29, 2f)(}O
Fob. 20. Coot M Feb.25.
c"'''r.'
F"'.""
B*
diMs: 10th elMar., June, Sept.,
Stock's
rica stabllIJ
75

r"""....,"",.

(9).....
...." tIortC lIB, 21#: ... , 1l:
10; '91, 12. Exti. nIr g~l:
'88, 16; Oi't'd pmnl
'82, 4; '53, (3Oj); '!N, 16; '98, (23t, '99,
Oec. CI Ojy'drei1YStnm pan ani!. (DJ In m . ,
PrfceGrowtfI
144: '00, (''''I _
... "'-....,.fob.
(E) Bel. ....,,_
.......
~

ad, .......

..,-

MIIIIiII is ~
IIanI ~
tJ*ItId lillie I1lIiIlN and
1lI[ P\BlISlR
IS frl)1 RE.
OR INf f RRORS OR OIItSSIONS H[RIi 1m plIbIEai:ln is sn:..t ... ~
rI.lIIIIIJ'lIt~"'II'~i1",""d!dtnI::lI'dJBbnt.II'II5IIIII'"
.~.

rlldulll

....".111......-~

","

34,.'

'90:

-~-

'" TOT. RrnJR1i1l1lQa

1998
1999
2000
2001
1996 1997
25.,
25.75
25. ..
11.14
Zll.29
17.96
3.35
2.61
2.70
3.01
UJ
264
.51 d350
lU~ d2.3D
.61
'.50
1110
1.38
1.91
1.38
1.73
.1'
AI
.80
.88
.92
.5J
.64
19.16
11.10 'lD5
16.12. 19.55 21.12
oz.,. ..,.UO
".111
512'
104\
94~
110%
~
12.\
11.3
15.9
10.5
.83
.78
.65
.60
. 6%
4.0%
3.9%
5.'\
1379.4 1298.4 1248' 1204.3 1209.0 1268.8 1!l54.1
1535
T16'!0
72.5' 71.6\
18.6% 73.9lI 12..3% n.3% 71.5'
27.41Jt 2S.3% 262\
25.6% 25.1\
352\
3Ull
.2'10
2.9\
d12\ d12.al 011."" d1Q.DI
-5.9\
1.5\
3.'\
9.1%
NIIF
9.61 18.01 2D.6'1 15.5% 24.8'
25'\
91.1
93.0 105.9 d55.D
45.0
87.0
95.4
912
13U
5.1%
1.0l\
6.1%
6.0%
5.8%
5.8%
&OS
7.1'
3739
3890
4802
<416
3817
39BO
3719
107D
1015
862.3 850.8 1\11.G 1175.1 1314.8 1321.0 1151.0
10.7%
6.3\
NIIF
10.1\
8.6%
9.9%
7.0%
.2\
4>\
3>\ 5.5%
~1\
NIIF
42\
3.7"
4.5'"
62\
53\
1ft
59\
58'4 51\ 58\ 44\
11.64
266
21
1.34
.76
15.69
70.19
100\
124
.83
4.6%

~
1993
1994.5
18.04
19.14
3.04
2.91
d1.14
'.03
121
1.21
.11
.73
11.91 11.82
12.00 11."
13>~ 128\
13.4
12.0
.7.
.79
4.4% 4.81

,.

20

'2

.....'

1992
21.09
3.07

2'

1,(1
III

".

50
40
32

o.

"'M

MARKET CAP: $575 million (Small Cap)

PrumiJms

25.'

17.0

3.0

(83% of Cap'Q

Bonds
Stod<s

,1"
I

orc.,,

tllllL)

Pf

25.5

1984
9.14
125

FINANCIAL POSITION

13.3

20.0
15.0

5.0

rr.ct.d

327~

Convnon Stod. 6O,on,519

19.5
14.1

"'88 21004
1989
1990
1991
1985
1986
1987 1988
1625
Zll.09 Zll.09
11.01 13.51 15.35
15.52
258
215
3.04
H6
1.97
2.22
1.71
d.44 d1.00
d.16
d1.29
d1.03
dA2
'.50
'.63
1.19
1.45
1.10
1.51
.32
.43
.76
1.01
.41
.58
.62
.34
.3>
.38
.42
'2
923
9.10
10.19
5.97
6.97
8.33
5.88
6.70
11.18
88.40 86.'" 83.9::1
fl."
89.91
112\
105\
123\
151\
96\
151\
105~
1""
9.3
6.0
9.5
16.9
11.2
13.4
104
l'
.12.
.69
1.40
.50
.49
1.57
.91
.70
4.6% 5.1'4
4.0l\
5.4\
6.3\
U%
3.7\
5.5'"
1438.0 1441.8
CAPITAL STRUCTURE.I of IIJlIIOO
12..3\ 69.9lI
Total o.bl: S221.0mill. DUlin 5 Yrs.W1.0mi.
32.3\
31.5'
LTDebt None
....6\ 1.5%
(17%
..
13.2%
Pension U;lbllJty None
64.1 107.9
PIlI Stock Non.
::~

IIediol:

16.9

18.0
14.4

1/91)

.... ..

50

10.0

16.7
12.2

29%

18
17%
111.1"'1"
IMider Decision.
f.A.JJASO
120
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
"... 000
o 0 0 2 0 0 000
Instilutional Decisions

....
.S.
....

12.'

'C:o~~~aoI

Rebn

(j:..,l
+65%

25

"'-;
I
6.7

lIMl
5.0%
RATll 2 78 lID
9.6 P'"RATll 40 0 (Trlilni~1If1!J )WLllM

LEGENDS
10.01 E.-rWngs P sIl
. . . RNIire Price Si~g11
2.fQr-l"
1111

5 _"'l/l!QI

IECHN1CAl

13.
8.9

I~CENI
PRICE

is ~
u.l. "'"
II'~

...,..

:1IIUItI.
P-'

..,.~
rI
tilL iIIlIrI'III use.
.

,~lI'pa&I1

&INn'"

Pers~
, '.

20

I I:

I I

OXFORD INDS. NYSE.{/xi


4 _",_
3 ...,.".

lIlIlJll(SS
SAfElY
BETA .10 0.00

.....

13.4
10.5

13.~
8.5

27.'

14.4

25.'
15.0

38.8
23.0

24.4
14.4

RIU'n

.,.....

IP.I.':III1; .

4'.1

.... !I

..

r
..

.,

..

......

'.

.....

RATES

11-.. 1

''Cash FkJw"

Em'nngs
Divi:lends

.... v....

,.

Pat

'nt

,,"7.5%

11Yn.
5.5%
14.5"
26.0%
5."'"

10.5'"
11..5"

3.5%
6.5%

0."'"

.......

&rd ... De

6.0"
8.5"
8.5ti

1.""
n.5"
M

FIocaI

F1..,.,

l:

-,.
,.

,.....
l:

1191
1.
1999

2GIll
CoJo

endat

199T

''''

SH. A.

Y.,

1991 1992
57.13
59.00
1.32
213

1993
65.96
245
U2
1.10
.55
.63

...

.,

....

103.2
774.5
962..
839.'

.-

wear operatioll5 clobbered Oxford's


earnlngs In the opening (August)
period of fiscal Zool. The Shirt Group,
launching three or the new businesses
(Izod
Club Golf, Tommy Hllf1ger Women's Golf.
and
DKNY
j(jds)
was
prlmarlly
responsible for an increase in corporate operatlng expenses to 15% from 13.6% the
year before. Introduction costs for Slates
TaUored
Clothing
by the
Group
chlpped
In. Except

Lanier

,,.,
.....

~1!C:81 J8iII" ends last ..ell iI Way rA


ar )'IIiII". (8) Pmay .mings throUgh
1997. diluted......,..
Em nornamtg Dss:: '96. 31. Next IliI1II1gs

u.e

III ZlIlO. "'-'e


TH P\J8USI-I:RIS

~"I'IWJ te ~

=stPONSIn.f

lilt. AI ~

NOl R[
!llnd

II" ~

I1'Jpllrt due nicI-Dltc. IC) Next divdend lIIIliIIing


.bouI: Jan. 9. Goes ax ebouI Feb. 9. Apprut.
dividend ~nI
1Smes: Feb. 28, May 31, Aug.

.13.0

Clothes

1999
87.18 108.13
3.71
4.45
275
3.11
.60
.82
1.00
.89
18.11 19.46
8.8Z
7."
11.6
92
.60
.12
2.9%
2'%

2001
11110
."
3.02
1""
84
.84
.T1
21.48 2"'1'

2000
109.73

114> 062'
6.7% 6.6%
6.1
6.9
2'.6
26.'
39.011 39.011
32%
3.'%
169.5 1M.7
U4
40.1
1.59.8- 1Sot.4
12.8% 142%
15.4" 17.1%
11.0% 12.6%
29'4
26%

.29

...

f."

U7

5.9

.41
'.0%
639~

104.1

CYALUEUtiEPIIl.
K. D:l-05
Sltnpwlh A
f!7.1S
-Cish Flow" pw III
US
Enilgi per"
4.511
Di'dl Dld'd per Ih C
.If
120

~=::
..
..
R_.re_

ornon 5111 0JtIf1


Ayg
PJ"f Rdo

An.,

1J~
.If

US
U%
ld'
23.
22.0
38.011 JU"
J.n
25%
163.0
1J'
4Il.d
40.'
161.3
lid
12.1,. 10.5ll
14.3% 12.dll
.Dll
10-3"
28%
2llll

6.'"9.

1.4%

-~I'

1$
1.'"
110

3...ina1i_

0eIndd'" (lIDII

U.

Not ProI1 (1nII1


~CllfbI

Tu RIll

W_.

11.'"

NI1ProI1I.
Cop" (Inlll)
Long-T ...

,..

1Jll

IlolJII_

SlI,.
Rn.m on 10lil tip,
R........ Shr.E' ....
RnInMt IIICOMEq
ADDlY'dllo NIl PraI

HO
JII
11'"'
13.Jll
11.5%

""

Anwr;a. '00 depr. 1iIte: 82%. Esmn. p~


108: 6 yeaR. W.ges:
.bouI23% 01 sales. Has 9,758 empls., 671 stmkln. liInilll' fBIriIBs
ronIoI ovs 25% 01 stx:t; WEDGE Capital, 9.8"; DinBnsix1al,
7.2"'; orr.,1Jir., 19.4% (812MX1 Prnxy). Chnm. & Pres.: J. H.
l8nier. Inc..: GeorgIa. Add.: 222 PieclmxlI A-'1I8 N.E., MIiIrtIi. GA
30308. Tel: 404-659-2424. IntEIm8l::: www.a:dordi'lc.Q)IIl

group's manafc:mentpromoting three


long-time emp oyees in a vastly recon~ed
O~anlzatlonaI structure .
e fisc
second (November) quarter
looks like a downer, too. The recent underperl'ormance of many of Oxford's retail
customers Is being reflected in the comf,anY5 shipments,
whlch,
we think, will ag
the $220 million
In sales
chalked up In the
COITesponding
period or llscal ZOllO. Thus.
we look for a share-eamings
decline
similar to the one experienced in the August
period. The
company
believes
that
secondha1f results will "improve greatly
over the first half." All added up. we look
ror 2001 fuII-lIscal-year
earnings
to approximate last year's tally. in the range of
$3.00 to $3.05 a share.
The loa1ue Line Tuueliness Ranking
SysterD isn't
looking
kindly on these
shares right now. But its extremely low
PIE and a market price -well below book
value might make the stock Interesting to
long~term investors willing to collett a
worthwhile
dividend
while
waiting
patiently for the market to recognize the
value existing here .

Raymond

:1:

""

7...

Ayg Ann' DlY'd YIIId

S.

Cowen
Campa,;_

Nuvember

MIl is ,lWtI'ided ...


~
~
tm.
_,_
..... lascill. ~II~.
0 pili
III *lIII"'it pdlblion. 5II'Ate III poUl.

rte. StBbIIItJ
Pr1csIGrawth PenIRenQ
eemings Pr.cIIc:IaIItIIJ

17. 2(){){)

FlnlllclelStrHgUl:

S1Dck's

31, Nov. 30.

.......
.....
"'" -. -
".
,..,

"" TOt. RE1UtN 1Gb)

(D) In mili::lnl. (E) Arx:eIer3IBd dePl .. :i:itkML

115en"Ild. t.m.lllllWlill
is lltllilled hUIII IlIUIa$ ~
ID be ~
OR""" E.RRORS OR OIISSIOMSH[R.[It. Thispul:llitaialJis!ll'dy
b ~5
II" CChI!r IImI. II" usect b geNIIIiIIg II" ~..,

il.,- ~

..... -

'~.-42.7
32.7

for Shirts,
all
divisions contributed
impressive in
creases in both sales and operating
US
earnlngs - but they could not overcome
EARNlfCSfU
the 81% decline in operating profit at the
Aug.P.rtIov.Per Ftb.P.r lIay Per Y., Shirt Group, Oxfonfs second-largest oper.75
.59
225 ation after Womenswear. Indeed, the Shirt
.40
.51
.61
.61
.87
.60
21'
Group has been stlU~
since its license
.7.
3.11
.61
.94
.76
~ was terminated
3.02 to produce Polo for
.60
.98
.60
.94
1.15
3.00 Unilaterally by the Ralph Lauren Group as
.7Il
.7Il
.45
or May, 1999. Polo had accounted for some
QUARTERlY 01Yl)EJl)SI\\Il C
F
10% of Oxford's sales and earnings. and
I"Jl
J.. .3D S;p:"' OocJl Yhad been an Oxford
mainstay
ror 20 years.
.60
.20
.20
.20
.20
With the d~ure.
in late September. of
.20
.20
20
.so Robert
.20
C.
klnner.
the head
or Oxfords
.60
.20
20
.20
.20
.64 Shirt division for 13 years, the company
.21
.21
21
21
made
Significant
changes in that
.21
.21
21

m.s

, I

1~.

T.

QUARTERLYSAW ~I oil'
~UU.P.rNov.P.r Feb . r May Pe
lOOT 172'
160.0
203.2 161.'
193.2 2Il8.1 178.1 194.'
198. 232.5 206.0 225.3
'999
185.T 219.9 181.5 246.'
2001 204.4
1l1li
J4S

32

5~.

...

....

'"
24
20
16

3.'

,.~

48

12

Co:'~

'I",.,
"

'.

.-

84

- -

I.'

."

'00
eo

'--7 "

t.'

Percent
.her_

28

.IY:'

." II.,.

,.

,.

22

1994 1995 1996 19'1998


12.31 ""6
75..e iIl.09
3.04
2..11
1.56
3.21
.62
122
.56
225
223
.so
.16
.69
.60
.60
.73
1.10
1.09
J!I
-'",
11.43 1228 13.29 14.79
16.12
15.25 14.65
.78
8.69
6.64
8.69
8."
8.8'
12.0
10.8
31.6
92
10.'
20.'
.73
1.31
.69
.64
.11
1.98
.53
59%
32%
3.4%
3.1% 4.5%
3.9%
~9%
505.9 521.1 512Jl 62 .6 651~ 664.'
1032
, .% 5.6% 6.7%
3.61
6.5%
4>%
3'%
62
6.3
1.0
1.8
89
9.1
6'
125
1..
10.6
19.2
. 9
19.6
5'
38.11 39.011 39.71 40.'% 40.0% 40.011 39.011
38.'"
cownge: 10.!b:)
1,.4\
(20%t<Cop'Q
2.6% 3.'1
1.61
.7%
26%
2.'%
1.1'"
lMs_, Uncapltltlzld Annuli nlnlals $4.6 mil
1049
97.4
101.2 103.8 1092 143.6
150.7
137.3
320
21.3
221
17.8
47.0
41.8
12."
45.'
P.rmlan lLlbl1ity None
141.5
'03]
1~2
U5.3
127.7 132.6 129.0
'062
PIf 5tDo:t None
6.8% '2% 102% 11.6" 14.111 6.6% 3.6% 11.6%
Common Stocl 7,469,715 shs.
(80% at Cap'~
5>% 11.6% 12.8,. 15.0'4 6.011 3.8% 13.9"
7.7"
MARKETCAP: $125 million ISm." C.p)
3.0% 2.1% 7.3% 8.1'
e.,..
10.4% 3.1%
.Of
1/1/00
CURRENT POSITION
2000
61%
31%
61%
31%
NMF 36%
31% 61%
1.1 BUSINESS: Oxfon:llndusbies, Inc. is leading manuflldllrer d .p11.1
8.6
Receivlbles
11-4.7 112.9
'30A pol b men end boys (61% U 2DOOsales), 'WOn'lIln and gi1s
148.1 (39%). Map brands: unisr CbIhes. Tammy hlIfC,wshm.nd
1-46.9 153.2
'_(UFO)
golf
Qlho,
1-4.0
13.8
12.'
CUrrent Ass8ls
2S63 28'1:1 3002 llppiftl. 1G~ .ub IInll slacks, SIaSes, Geotrrey Beene, Oscar
~
La
RenD
cklthes,
DKNY
Kids.
27%
01
saI8I
to
WBl-MiIl1
end
61.4
N:r15~b1.
63.'
Carp. Has 16 pBnls, 2 in SdlUSS'n
U.S. 14 in Ulin
34.1
Ilo .. euo
18.7
33.'
37.5
38.0
Other
"R.O
costs
men's
for four
136.2 Start-up
CUlT8nl Lie.
124.6
131.8

....

Target Pric. Range


2003 2004 2005

22.5
15.0

29~
19.0

.. I,"

-.... ..-

1Cl.

"

I--IJ/I/

1989 1990
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
52.16 50.36 47.71
5023 5921 51.30 5U2
lAl
d.10
151
266
1.63
1.69
1.30
.93
.99
.82
211
.93
.45
.50
.so
.so
.36
.42
.48
.00
93
.84
' .12 .59 .63
10.89
11.19
10.69 11.10
11.51
11.84 10.40
8.01
W7
1.09
1.16 I1.az
'.OS
'.zJj
10.8
I.
8.7
20.0
1&.1
162
.61
1.62
1.06
1.06
-- .62 1.07
3.1% 3.6% -4.1\
.2%
1n
3.3% 3.1%
CAPITALSllWCTURE as of1l1.
550.'
TalIl o.tlI $75.2 mI. Due m 5 YI'I S75.2rnil
'2%
LT Dtbt$4(l.5rnl.
LTI.....
$2.5 rd.
6.6
Incl. $.7 nil. capilaiztld leases.
6.0
(l T 1It8resI..-ned: 16.1r,1llta1 i'rt8ntsl:

ANNUAl

37.7

22.'

4.9%

_~S,I!IteniDr1

Am"o1a1

GIIn

22

22.0
18.0

21.9

lIIV'D
llD

- - - ----

75
4""
50 l:~l
+195%
33%

....:::..~.....

34.8

TNE

'='"

Insider Dec.lcllns
O,lF."'.JJA
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
"... 000 000 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
InstituUoNlI Decision.

18.4
6.9

59

PROJEC11ONS

Ptb

LEGENDS
liD I a:1V\ r .. op ..
RelIM Prft ShJIfI!

3....,,,,,,"

TECIiMCAl.
200~5

High:
Law:

pf
6 1 (tniln
Woo: 11~ )IF
Pf RAllO 0 42
I=' 17 RATiO

'.

10
3S
30
: II:

II'

PAYLESS SHOE. NYSEpss


TlllEUIBS
SAFm

2 ""'.".,
3 hTlQI191

TECHNICAL

L..fGENDS
1..0 I
." . :~

ItTJ,

~ed'"

3 ""'"" ..
(1.0:1 .. Mlrt.!t)

JQ

I~ECENT
PRICE

:1J.S)jFPi TrIERAm080

lodi.d.

65 PiRAm 116(Tl1In
g

High:
Lor.

41.8
19.5

target Price Range

65.0
38.8

FbIIDp sh
fttro 5nngll

lidca's tPl::rnDI

Ann'I loti!
ReIwn

GaIn
150 (";130%1

Nil

YlD

59.8
40.0

a::n.

2OOU5 PROJEC11ON,~.
Price

71.0
37.0

67.9
34A

lIIV'D

High
23"
lciir
100 1+55% 11"
Insider Decisions
DJF.".JJA
..,
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Cl,lIIII
000000000
_WI
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Institution.1 Decisions
tQI81 1Q1M 2Q2" P_rcent 15.'
II..,
74
78
44 .".~
10.'
:I="
213~ 1130: 1...J~ tradMI U

II,.

--

1'111

,no

.. -

..
an

54

hlllil

40
32

II"

24

.....

..

..

20

"

..

I.

--~"=r.r-"

'"

"..

'" TOT. RrnIRtI 1lWllD

..;"...

t--

1995 1996 1997


Payless ShoeSourte ;s the successor to a 1990 1991 1992 1993 1_
..
..
company founded in 1956. Volume lJis..
S2JIl
57.68 5U6
68.16
.. .. .. .. 5.16 3.70 4.96 5.66
tributOlll went public in 1962 and became
..
..
Volume Shoe in 1967. The May Department
..
316
1.34
2.68
331
..
..
..
..
Stores Company bou9ht Volume Shoe in
..
.. . 19,65 18.64 21.31 22.40
1979. V"ume Shoe became Payless

1yr.

24.9

14.8

t=======t=======~~~t=~~q~~~~=~~~=
..
..
..
..

ShoeSourt8
1991. 10
May
Department
SIDres spun elfin Payless
sha,.hoIders
on '
May 4, '99fi. May stockholders roceived .16
~ a Pa~ess shalO lor each May share
owned.
u of 712SfOO

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE
Total Dlbt $324.5 mil.
LTDeb1$323.7mil.
Ind. $4.1 mil Cilpilanzed

Due In 5 Yrs $324.5 mi.


LTfll'llrKl$30.0mil.
leases.
(46% of Cap'Q

Lases, UncapitaJi.r:edAnnuallentills

$232.8 mil.
Plnslon Li.lblllty None--No defined benBlits pl.n,

..

Common

..

Stocll 22,162.,782 slls.

..
..
..
..

..
..

..
..

of Cap1)

(54%

.. oI8I2SIOlI
IllARKET CAP:

$1.4 bllion

CURRENT POSmoN

(liid

Ca:'~ets

164.2

--

--

3042.1
30.2
495.8

=~~.
7f]

Other
Cummt Liab.

..

123.5

Receivables

Inventory (FIFO)
Other

Cap)

1m

1fiB

117.9

349.7
53.0
566.9

364.0
57.7
435.2

SaIea

--

"Cash Flow"

_.

Beat Value

&v~~

::

--

""'22i.9

Put
Est'd'l7-'II
SYrs.
tll'U-'15
9.0%
13.0"
6.0,,"
12.o"

3.0~
3.0%

1.1~
13.5"

Ii='

.t=.

QUARTBllYSAlfS IIIlIl "


~
Apr."'r Jul.P., Oct.Pe, Jan.Pw Y_
1991 645.'
7'6.7
635.7 689.. 2566.9
1191 681.0 723.1 643.1 568.3 2615.5
1191 689.2 T67.5 669.4 604.0 2730.t
2IlOO 708.5 816.9 723.0 151.1 _
lOll
7511
845
f9fI
3D75
~
EARNINGS PER SHARE A8
liT:;'. AM.Per JulPer Oct.P., an.Per ~_
1957
.81
1.15
.88
.46
131
I.
1.00
1.33
.98
.42
3.78
1M
1.119 1.61
1.11
.51 4.35
2000
1.02
t'6
1.44
. ,
ill!
2DIli 1.5:1 Z5IJ
f.71l
,57
UI
CalQUARTBl.T DIVIIENDS PAl)
Full
,""r
1br.31 Jun.30 5f.D.3G
V....

oJ:..

Dec.,'

,.
~:
NO
'191
2DOO
jAJ F-=at ,.. _rids on

..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

--

40.40

1.40

.
..
..
..
..

2116.4 ZJ3O.3
29.6\ 275\
13~
11.01
4435
4549
1315
549
39.4\ 39~\
.. 61% 1.3\
-242.1
232.0

11.6
103

793.9 752.9
.. 16."\
1.1%
.. '6.6\ 72\
16.6%

39.92
'2.7
.60

31.33

165
.95

2333.7 2>06.9
2U\
11.3\
4236
107.7
128.9
39.9\
39Jl\
4.6\
5.0\
3669
364.'
6.S
.2
836.4
'53.0
12.6'lt 15.3'4
15.4%
12.6\

--..

,,,.

..

12.6%

..

15."%

~~8~~~NDS

Sftnlay cbest to
31 of f~ng calendar~.
(8) Otitad EPS. Per-shift data prilY to '96 n pm
1oIma, bB5l!Id on nlntlBr of shares DIItstiIndilg

312\
119\
4570
135.0
39.K
5.2%
300.9
72.0

31.9% 32.,",
IU\
4112 4920
1365
120
39.~ lUS
5.0'4 4.'"
369.1
22D
':!S.I
320
702.' 103.8 3J5
17.4\ 16.4\ 145%
192% 19.4'4 30.5%
19.2% 194% 3115%

32.#lI Gms M-Jin


Opomng.....
5100 NwNlIr of Skn.
lfD Nit ""'II_I
3US InCOIH rll bII
''''
N.tPruItM__
125 W_. ,,",,'11"'1)
205 l ... T... DtbI{~1

,u" 'm

5(IJ .,,,,-_

12.,",
SlOD

,,,,
!UI
5.11
AS

fIB

RIMIlClllToIalCIp'
QII ShI. EIlIitY
Retain. IDCan Eq

2ll'.DI RiIUn
26-"

IIfJ.I

I~'i

'OM
17.11%
11.171
1US

in the U.S. Operfts 4,623 sel-servi:8 family a/Kle stns


(avg. lile: 3,300 sq. Il). Stenulso
ells ~
indo Mndbags and hosiEly. S!Dres .a IocDd. i1 d 50 ....
, Pusto RX:o,
the U.S. Vrgi1lsllnds,
& Canada. Operates 267 P.wIe d Shun
(KI:I'd 319n wtII'l8n's sholl mres ... I!MI MdlIm U.S. HiD 2'1,000

Ill8clcn
own 2.0% d skd; ESl iii" 19.6%: Franklin Mutual Advtsl:n.
11.1%; Fidelity, 10.0,," (4100 proxy). Channan & CEO: StlYen J.
Douglass. Vial Channan: RichanI A. ..klbsky. Pr-.: KIln C. Hicks.
Inc.: DE Addr8ss: 3231 East SiJItl St, P.O. BOIl 1189, Topeka,
K8nsas 666071189. TaL: 785-233-5171. Web: www.PlIIyMs..ca.ll

Payless ShoeSource
is showing signs
of improvement.
Same-store sales rose
4.1% in the third quarter, which was the
company's best performance In several
quarters. The environment for shoe retailIng has lmproved. In addJUo7l, .he slowing
economy is apparently Indudng shoppers
to eschew pI1der shoe retaUers in favor of
PaylesS. Intemally, this year the company
has Introduced new lines of shoes. prornoted them effectively, replaced Its advert1slng agency. and controlled Inventortes well. The thlrd-quarter
showing
makes us cautiously optlmlstlc that Payless will attain Its plan of low-single-dlgit
growth In same-store sales In the fourth
quarter of ftsca1 2000 (ends February 3.
200 I) and in 200 I. lMill Street has taken
note of the company's Improvement, as the
stock has perlormed well lately.
Stock buybacks
are a key factor in
Payless's share-net
growth. The company has repurchased eight mUllon shares
for $425 million this year. Even If no
repurchases are made In ftscal 2001, the
average shares outstanding wlll decline
markedly. WhUe the buyback program has
helped support the share price. Payless

has borrowed money to finance some of Its


repurchases. Thus, the balance sheet has
become somewhat weaker.
Pay.ess
is looking
toward
foreign
markets
for much
of its
growth.
DomesUcally, .he Payless chain ls In v1rwally every market of size. providing little
room for expamlon, except through an
agreement to run the shoe departments in
ShapKo stores. (Another chain, Parade of
Shoes. stlll has U.s. expansion opporturuties. as It is located largely in eastem
states.) So Payless has been penetrating
Canada in recent years. It now hmo 218
stores there. with a potential of 250 to 300.
The retailer also plans to test Central
American and Caribbean markets. It will
soon experiment with four stcres in Costa
Rica (through a 60140 Joint venture with a
local partner). If the test succeeds. this. reglon amId provide a 2oo-store opportunity.
This stock is a good choice for both
the near term. (.rimeliDess: 2. Above
Average) and the 3- to 5-year pertod,
as sustained eanlings growth should lead
to a higher priceearnings
multiple by
2003-2005.
Paul E. Debbas. CFA November 17, 20fXJ

taw

III: tine of i'llial public otJImp. FISCIII!Jl drqes in""" OIIIItaIxtiJg. lnet.~
b
Can,,:"IIJY's
FmudIJ SN"."
quartarty eBmi1gs donl .cId to luI-)'MI' kltal stare dosiIgs: "95, $1.08. Exd exIramlilaY
Stock's Pric. SbIb11il)'
due to l1lUn:ling COI'IYBnIDn. 'DB, .. , & '00 loss: '00, 14. Nut .. mings I8pcllt due liiJtI Price Growth PMsIstHce
urni'lgs donl add 10 U-year totals due Ie Feb. (C) In mill. CD) Incl. -=aued u.penses.
earnings P ... ctabUtty
C ZlDl, 'MIe tile f'IItlIs/InQ. -=-AI rigltslall'l'llll. F.......
is ~
1ftIIIl_ ~
11IbtniItR
lilt is....."
~
rI MI)' UId. _
TIiPU8USIRlSMlJ R[~SI!Il[lORItInRROR:SoalMSSlONSH[R[IH.Thii~isW'dy.~-."lIII
i11l111ol11nr.NlIfl1'l..
I
".
: II:
CIIllMJ tr Itp'CIlIIad. *-l'. ~"'"
pIiWtd. *dIInt u IlUB bnI. u 1IMllI. ~
u.....,..,
....... cr*lnnI: ~
1InIKr .. p-odld.
1./Kl3ly

n.,",

r.===:2=--;;;---:-::----:c-'-;,,---,c-c-,----'-.,.,.---:-------;--:-:c.L=.,.-J=::-;';-;;=O:,::==--=:c----,-J'c:-,-------!
BUS"ESS; Payless ShDeSource, Inc. III the lIiIrgest fOCllwalr refill- & parl-tine empts., 45,000 sb:khoIcIen. orrmn and

81J 224.~~
115.9

"1'94.9 """'i97:8

ANNUALRATES PISt
ClhDrIge!P-"J
llTrL

..

..

7l2IIOI

13.5

..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
1-:====4====~~~~~=:#.~:4~~~~~~jjtt:5~~~~
t..

Pfd Stock None

Curntnt As!I8ts

..
..
..
..
..
..

..

B..,.
80
45
40
II'

IRECEN!
jPRICE

PENNEY IJ.e.\ NYSE.JCP


5 lMrelll1nJ.al
3 _~ ""'"
4 _~ ""'"

TNEUIft:SS

SAFm
TECHNiCAl
IfTA

(1m_

.!to

29.1
21.3

"

,,'

Ann'ReturnTalal

~~~~t~l

59.0
41.1

35.'

Mlrkl!l)

GaIn

YlD

....

40.2
2SA

so.

57 .

39.9

44 .

".3

54.'

78.8
42.8

44 .

Target Pricll Rans2003 2004 2005

22.5
8.7

17.7

eo

2003-<15
PROJE~~5
PriCl

IlIV'D

. '.-

1~

---

'"

1,1"

I I

"

I,

'1"'1

lnaider Decisions
DJFMA.JJA

.. ..,
000200001
~.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
tiS.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional DltCiaions
1CQ
..

4Q\"

.e.,

121

:.::.n1~

202M'

95

113

17~

1984 1985
4512 46.08
l13
lO4
1.45
1.33
.59
.59
12.81 13.58
297.48 298.31
8.8
9.4
.82
.76
4.67. HI.

181~

1986
49.25
1.54
1.77
.62
14.50
299.28
10.6
.72
3J'

Mml.

'.0

P.~m:
..h
tl'llded

~::.~

1987 1988
55.40 6023
1.2
3.76
2.39
2.48
.74
1.00
15.08 13.20
276.18 24628
10.5
9.9
.70
.82
2.K
4.1'

~ ~rJ

Inventory (UFO)
Other

1990
70.20
3.61
2.30'
1.32.
15.86
233.12
11.8
.n J8
3.6% ~.9'

6031
188
11125

84n

1~~
6041
167
8011

3465

3351

3481

:"~~~
Sales
~..
s ....

2.5%
-1.0%
8.5%
6.5%

1991
2001
2001
~KIII

8:"
1197

1191
1.
2000

-1.0'1. -6.0"
-7.5% -15.0"
8.0'1. -27.0"
6.0%
-1.0"

Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per

1197 6481 6420


1.
6806 6510

v::

72DB 9509 29618

TJ!J7
9043 29656
7552 9547 31391
1466 ""
J1.
7550 ~
7",
f7DO 32100
EARlCINGSPERSHARE'AlIIQ
~
API",Per
JulP,r Od.P,r Jan.Per'Y::"
1258
1440

.53

.64
.61
.28

7D34
7146

.38

.36
.12
.01

1992
1'6.96
'.SO
2.95
1.32
17.26
234.00
11.8

1993
80.44
5.20
3.55
1.41
19.99
236.00
13.0

3.8"

3.1'

.n

.n

1994
89.78
5.90
4.05
1.68
21.96
227.110
12.4
.81
3.4'

16201 1S009 18983 20380


35.0% 34.9% 332" 33.01
621/ i.51t'
".61
JI
,,9.61
1813 1814 1752 1759
528.0 m.o
944.0 1057.0
38.8' 38.3' 39.3' 31.8'
3.3% 4.3'
5.0% 5.2f.
4286.0 3893.0 4682.0 4961.0
3354.0 3111.0 2929.0 3335.0
4188.0 4105.0 53&5.0 5615.0
8.9% 11.6% 11.7% 13.1%
12.6\ 16.5\ 17.6' 1l8%
5.3' 10.8' 12.1' 12.8'
65'
44'
39"
40%

1995
91.79
5.09
3.33
1.92
23.58
22~.OO
13.9
.93
4,3

.65

.68

1.36

.72

3.12

1996
101.18
5.04
3.17
2.08
24.05
223.89
16.1
1.01
4.1'

1997 1998 1999


118.00 118.62 120.27
5'1
5.01
.36
3.12
2.40
1.69
2.14
2.18
2.18
2722 26.18 25.98
251.00 250.00 261.00
17.9
252
21.6
1.03
1.31
123
3.8"
3.6% 6.0'

20562 22653 29618


32.0,. 3Q.81~ 29.4%
1/
8.1"
7.6J1
1883 3927 3981
838.0 793.0 839.0
31.5% 31.2" 38.B"
4.1% 3.5'
2.8%
5389.0 3146.0 5341.0
4080.0 4565.0 6986.0
5884.0 5952.0 7351.0
9.7,
9.0% 1.n.
14.2' 13.3% 11.4'
1.1'
5.5'
4.1'
SS'
63'
67\

7.7'

BUSINESS: J.C. Penney Co. ~ the fowtlt-llwges'l tefMI' in the


U.S. Operated1,178dep;nnent sbas 81close of fiscal'99 and an
extensi'tB catalog busiJess (58%, il ktJ.~ of 1999 SilIIIs; 61% of
oper. InCDmll~Co. &a:lui'ed Ksr Drug Skna, Friy's IIIId Eckerd
b&tw8en2195and 2197. Opelliltes ilbout.2,900 drug stores (38% of
l1IIaii sales; 11%fA tIP ilc.). DI'act Mart8bng SliIYices(nil'll)' in-

earnings

have

taken

an-

department store and drug store divisions is t8klng a toll on fall


margins. Moreover, these
measures have
ed to stem a decline in
same-store
sales. which began In fiscal
1998s third quarter.
Penney's department
store segment has been lasing market
share in some key product lines. and it Is
unlikely that this trend
can
be soon
reversed. The weakne:ss ma1nly reflects
competitive inroads by the country's three
major discount
chains
and some fastexpanding apparel and "bed and bath

3)'1"

-167

Vl.~

..
_

300

-648

1048

2000 2001 .VALIiHIlEPIJIl


tiC. 03-45
f2UII 111.611 R...... npll'IttOO
13UD
3.20
3.Ml C.. I1FI p.... h
145
.35
.1itJ EaminIlSplfah(ll)
.JD
.Jf
AS Div'dsDtd'd.-IhIC)o
.JG
1,U5 104.15BooIlVIIlllpersh
15M
ZS2.5D 264.00 CCIIIIIIICIl'IShaOutd'g
27UD
~~,..
..
AvgAnn'IPfERIio
1111
__
R_PIERdo
1.zo
Avg Ann' DiY'dY".d
1.11

29656 31391 31.


28.4% 27.4% 11.0%
461/
6.4%
."
""
3904 4076 3.
654.0 465.0
115
36.6'
30.5" J5.O%
2.2%
1.5%
AS
5155.0 4007.0 4f5D
7143.0 5844.0 55DO
1169.0 722B.O 6I6D
6.5% 5.6% 3.0%
9.1% 6.4'
2.01
1.0%
Nil
Nil
90% 136% MlF

311. RlWI1uIllSnlI W
17.D1 Grou IIIwgln IE)
...1111
Opnlnglllqln
3I6D NlnbIrGfStDra
fto NIlPrutl(1rwlD)
35.!1 InCllnlITu RaIl
,R Nit PruI1."
OlD Wcrblg CIfI'1($nil)
5IDD LOII.IITIrTII
Debl.(W)
ft25 Shr.-EquIty
l$rdi
3.~ Rftlm'lII'ITaIIICIp'
z.~ ROIm DrI Shr. EaUttv
.~
RI1ainedto Ccn Eq
US ADDiY'cIsIDNIIPraf

3QlCJCI

2i.5S
US
150
175
37.11%
.1S
UDtJ
..
73DQ

.f.0I
..f./J%
2.D%

MS

surance) .x:ount b 37% fA pre-w ilcome. Women's8pparal illId


iICCIISSOFies, 41% of non-drugslorBsalBa; men's illId chitler8n's
appare~ 41%; home hnl5hligs, 18%. Has 284,500 Mllplcyees.
orrJdir. own m.lhiln 1% of a:JmITIOIl.ax1l: (4.00 Prm)'~ C!Jnnn &
CEO: JIneS OesI:&il!!ii::lll!ll. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 6501 legacy Driwe,
PllIno, lX 75024.Tel: Sn-431-4757. Net www.;;penney.arn.

~~=~~
tiOIL

Allen

Questrom,

who helped

or-

~:~C;~~~~~:
-;~

helm at Penney's on September 15th. Penney's launched


a relatively expensive advertlsing campaign focused on "NOmen's
apparel and took a number of steps to en
hance the aesthetic
appeal of Its department stores shortly before Mr. Questrom
assumed his CUJTt:ntposlUon. Also, a new
management lnfonnatlon system and more
cooperative relaUonships with key suppliers should enhance the tlmellness of Inventory shipments.
A three-year
old profit decline
at the
Eckerd's
dnJg store chain may weD

~:~~~~=~~~
~~~r.fZ:1~~~~;. ~~~
_L._~

l40
th e j ust-con cl u d e d UllJU quarter was w ell
1.69
.35 below the average of the pa...t two years.
.ID The above factors probably w:l11result in a
Full loss of $0.10
to $0.15
a share
In the
v.... quaner, and we expect earnings
to remain
1191 48
5
5
52
2.04 below ftscal 1999's depressed level for the
.
.2
. 2.
foreseeablefuture.
l!11T
.52
.535
.535
.535
- <Ii
,.
.535 .545 .545 .MS l13
2.11 A new CEO m
cat ed tha t his ini tiaI
1119 .545 .545 .545 .545 2.18 focus wiD be on improving
smne-store
2010 .2875 .287'5 .2815 .125
sales
at the department
store
operaAJ FIE. yr. ends on list Sat inJan. dnez! tal dudes ncmnlCU" .\JIil (k:aes): 81, (54):"88, Nul u: about.Jan. 7. Ow.
yeir. Revs mnsisI: allBlI~ &Ie5.
$1.06: '89, (16); '91, ($3.86); '92. (15!): '96,
d FBb., May, Aug., Nov.
.51
.45
d.1J
.19
2001
.15
.05
.1D
.~
taJ.
QUARmtLVDMJEtmSPJI)u(C)
endar IIIlr.]1 JUII.30 SeD,3D Dtc.31

'yr.

--5)'1"

W (~~r
~7.5" es::d:ti
~~ 2~2~I~R~=::
2.5"
promotional activity at both the

llIIARTERLYRE'mES(lolljl"
..foI.

ADr.P..-

1991
69.44
3.46
2.00
1.32
15.02
233.30
13.0
.83
5.17.

--..m J.e. Penney's

"5970 ~

,::.1.0'1.

''Cash Flaw"
~~in.nd'"
..........
Book Vltue

m m

2fiJ

Due

CulTllntUab.

5947
154

ijIBIij

16365
34.8"
431/
."
1799
577.0
30.6'
3.5'
PM StDdl S420.0mili:ln
PId OiY'd $32.0ml.
4137.0
Indudes 700,OOOshs.,
conv.llto 14.0mill shs. of
3135.0
cmmon at $30 8 share, owned by ESOP.
4394.0
13"ofCllp'Q
9.2'.4
CommDIIStock 262,066,853slls. (53" otC8p'Q 13.1%
IIARKETCAP:$3.1 billion (Mid Cap)
6.5%
CURRENT POSITION 1191
1999 71D1OG 58%

CummlAssels
Iv::ds Payable

:u
1989
66.90
.1
32-4
1.12
15.16
240.69
9.5

CAPITAL
STRUCTUREU ot712YO
TotalDebt S6064 nil Dill In 5 YIS $2000 rm.
LTDetrtS5411nil
LTinterat$425.0mil.
Ind.S74.0nil.capialilBdlMses.
(LT~umecI:2.3x:lDtali1ttfest
COlIRIlIe:Z.OX)
(,"%ofCap')
leases, UncapttalizM Annual nmlilt!>$ti20.0 nil
Pension LiabilitJ None

'10 TOT. RETURIiI 1M1O

I"'

':'ci

sl-:~~
mal
d d e cllnin g m argi ns
yy,
green,
an
on
pharmacy sales covered by managed care
bode III for Eckerd's sales and profit prospeets.
We don't
recoJDJDend
untimely Penney shares at present. The last quarterly dividend was cut by 57%, to $0.125 a
share. an d wi II I ikid
e y be pare again next
year.

David R. Cohen
paymentd.-: 1st

November 17. 2000

Company's FlrWldal strenglli


Stclclr'li PrEe Stability
pnc. Grcrwth Pwsi&tMce

D DiY. raifrvlil5l plan


(8) Based on diluted aamings tom fs. '92; pri- f92); W, ($1.02); '98, (21.): '99, (83): 00filii (D. In mk, adj. b stock spIa. (E) Incl.
mllY befeft. Held egs. niP," due IiIl8 Nov. Ex- Q1, (16). (CI Next di't. maeI.'g. _bout Dee. 15. OCCl.Ipanq, b\I)'iIlg __ rwhotIe.c:asts.
Eamings P~b11t1y
c 2llOD. ....
I..iJe ~
Int. AI riIID memd. rmu.l ~
is IIIItIined flanl_ bIIIewlI tD lit niII't ... is pMIed 'IIIIIIIuI WII1WIIe5 Ii "'J ki'Id.. _
TWEPUBUSI-RIS MJT RE~
l'OR NfY E.RRORSOR CMSSlQNS HERE'" liB pltikalion is 1lrdJ" SIb5aiber'I. _,
,.......
iItInaI uw. No pa1
I

I .,
II I -, IIr IIIJ'IIdIa'IL *nil III!nIMI illllJ FJI*II. ....
~ bm. IlMlllIor ~
-'dng .., pi1IIIIIl1" I!B!nriI: fII&IbIal, smite 01 pa:Qd.

B
60
2S

60
: II:

I I

PHELPS DODGE NYSE-I'D


3 _lIl11m
3 ...,"'"'
4 _~.,...,

lWElJIlESS
SAFElY
TCHNICAl
BElJ.

25.7

{}
{}

{}
{}

{}
{}

{}
{}

55.8

32.0

39.t

.., ..,

ntatrs

71.8

54.8

....

71.8

69.6

43.'

'"

{}
{}

...

"11'""'1",
".

.. , ....

....

,1,,1'/""1,11,1

.. ..

." ..
."

134

"""

- --

"III',LIII"IIII'I

'

.. ..

..

(LIFO)

Cumlnt As!IBIs

980.0

N:Ds Payable
Debl.Due
0Ihe<
Current Uab.

451.3
184.8

RATES

"S...
.... I'o' .. J

651.1

Put
llY ....
4.5%
1.0%

-6.51

12.0%

'.01

eo.
"...,

",,'

"

",".

..

...

-.

CI 2CDlI. VIlle tile ~~tu~.


THE PUIIU'Si'I'R IS MJT RE
III -J' be ~
and CI" ~

..

12~' 93'

...

2342
541.5
498.3

"'9."

1693.4
786.5

582.5
.3
'418.3
Put

n..

6.0%
3.5%

-6.D1
'.01
.01

.'8S."

245.9
848.1

....'.0
283,1

1618.1

782.8
677.1
---..!.QJ.

,......

Est'd'l7'.
D'I3-'15

fO_D"
10.5"
15.5-'

>.'"
T.'"

,"

.,.66
18.68
HM'

HMF
3.6%

...

-41.of

252

ZU

97.11

..... ....... "..

' ".

'"

39.60
U7
14
2.00
2.55

22..8

20
18
12

'II TD't RE'TURtI MID

..

5 yr.

1998_
1993
1995 1996 1997
1994
36Bl
56.52
66.16
52.88
~.54 6Ul2
,3.9f) 11.16
5.32
8.05
865
1234
266
10.42
7.14
151
526
7.13
1.65
1.69
1.80
1.95
2.00
200
5.4,
5.,
5.49
5.02
1.93 1118
44.68
2B.61 3D.95 39.04
4259
.t2.81
57.93
9.1
31.4
115
lln
5B
10.1
1.95
1.83
51
.82
.22
.39
26%
2.911 3.0';
3.4'
3.0'
3.5'
2595.9 32891
31116.6 3914~ 3083.4
19.3% 22911 31.o, 25." 24.0';
17.'%
293.3
181.1 195.3 223, 249.5 283.1
187.9 373.9
a2.0
1300 4225
440.1
29.9, 29.8'
39.6%
320% 31.0%
36.0'
1U~, 12"
111
11.41
3.0'
111'
441~
350.0 328.9
5561
9501 735.6
541.3 622.3 613.1
554.6 861.1
B36.4
2022.1 21B7~ 2677.1 2755.9 2510.4 2587.4
61% 14.1% 23.0'; 15.0% 13.9%
3.1%
17.1% 21.3'
17.'% 11.5%
3.6'
HNF
35% 11.% 22.6% 11.5% 12.6%
HNF
2B%
321
82'
2"

2001 I ~YALU'ElJIjfPJll.IIC.
11.11/1 -por'"
SUI
].JS "CuIIFlIlw" por'"
7.1/1
Eamkl.p PII" Ilk A
1.J11
2. Dlv'd,o.crd.-l11
2M
& .. C.. '_aporoll
&18
Book YIIut pII' III C
39.JII
/1.111 /1.111 IC.......
a
A'IIIAnn
_P/ERato
~
A'1l Ann1 Wd YltId

..,.

......::~-

- ".
-

1_

1.7"

1=""-:-

154

311H
46111
'1.$1
lB."
329.1
Sf. DtpocI ..... l..1I)
.111
14.8
lIS HolPlo!!"")
8411
39.0'
4t.'" .1.11 nccnt 1u RIll
us NolPloIl ....
.5'
275.1
1JII
WorkInaCop1'''1Il
llSO langTom 00bI11NII)
2122.5
Sh . EqWIy
3216.B
1.JI~
2~
3.DI RIUn llIIlaW Clip'
Sh-. Eq.dt.
.B' Z~ S~ R.......
.... F
NJlF
RebIned to COllI Eq
N>.IF
AI Dlv'ds to NIl Prof
HIIF

,_<

03-45
IS."
141S

...

J.JII
liD
41..
/1.111

,U

,.
.85

HI
Z711.

6SII
4M
'1.11

us

61S
21011

1.01
12.1111
7~

"'"

BUSINESS: PI8ps Doll"" is Ol'llllof the wm:rl WgesI copper ~


duan (51" cd 119 sales). Also manuladlAS specil.ly chemicals
(1S%), WA & ClbIll (25""). 1999 eopper prod.: 1.8 bIion 1:15. 1999
8\11. prb: $O.7211l. Avg. cash cost: $0..55/1). Ccmpany lCqund
CoUnbian ChBm. 12186; Cobr8 Miring 2098; CqtnI 10i98: 85"
iJlerest ., Kar8a KIn'lIm PRochfIrn 1mB; ~
Amu Mnenlis

9.6% rl ccmnon; INVESCO, 9.4"'; off./l:Ii"., 1.8% (4100 Proxy).


1999 depr. ram: 3.8%. Has 16,400 empl.; Z7,671.tmtis.
CEO: J.
S'Mlv811WhisM'. lilt.: NY. Al:kRss: 2600 N. Certhl Ava., Phoent:t,
1IZ 85004. Tel..: 602-234-8100. WlIb: WW'II.ph~com.

Phelps Dodge Corporation's


eanlings
rebounded considerably
over the past
three months. (Nonrecu.n1ng items have
been excluded from our figures.) 'ThIs can
be attributed, in pan, to higher copper
prices, which benefited from increased
demand around the globe. The company
was also helped by a lower effective tax
rate, as well as synergies stenuntng from
last year's Cyprus Amax
acquJsJUon.
Nevertheless.
results continued to be
dampened, to a certain extent. by high
energy-related costs. Management has
sought to mitigate thls J:"'blem by taking
various initiatives. Su
as periodically
suspending copper production.) All things
considered, we believe share net will reach
$ 1.30 th:l.s year. a more than fivefold increase versus the 1999 tally.
We think Phelps
Dodge has bright
long~term prospects.
For a start, the
company is the second-largest ropper produrer, which means that It should be a
major benefldary when demand rises in
the coming years (which will Ukely occur
as more countries beoome industrialized).
Moreover, Phelps Dodge has a host of exploratlon projects around the world with

considerable mlnlng potential. Fmthermore, we expect the company to continue


to beneBt signlftcantly from synergtescJenerated by the Cyprus Amax merger.
anagement expects to realize pre-tax cost
savings of around S 135 million. or about
$1.00 a share after tax, by the end or next
year.) Lastly, Phelps Dodge has s1gnillcant
non-mining operations, which somewhat
dJm1n1sh its susceptibility m copper prices.
We beUeve the above-mentioned factors,
coupled with further cost-reduction initialives, will enable the company to post
strong annual eanUng5 advances in the
coming 3- to 5year period. (Our proJec
tlons, which do not account for future acqulsitions, assume copper prices average
between $\'OO and $\.25 a pound during
that time.)
Phelps
Dodge shares should reward
investors
with worthwhile
total retun1s over the 2003-2005 horizon. AIthough the equity is ranked to be only an
ave~e
market performer in the year
ahea , risk-tolerant accounts seeking exposure to the copper market should consider it .
Frederick L. Harris, III
October 27. 2000

10199. Sold ~

MnrallCW8;

Corp. 1198; ..... 6% int8R!5t II BBck Wountail

Cyprus Auslralil Coal 3/00. Capilli ResBIII'Chawns

llIJARTERLY
SAlfS ~ oa)
FilII
IIlr.31 Jlln.30 SeD.3D O.c.S1
Y1991 021.0 1065.7 961.1 8659 3914.3
1991 196.3 79404 764.0 700.1 3003.'
1181 663.1 691.1 7427 1017.5 3114.'
4110
119.1 11129 1193.4 Ill<
2001 200
1:IN
lZ011
lZ011
EARMHGSPER611AREAE
F
eo.
.".31
J.n.30 ~D:io-00e.31 Y.,
7.14
1997
1.96
.84
213
2.16
1991
1.51
.10
.69
.35 d.']
1999
.05
.24
d.l1
.02
.28
.26
.53
.45 UII
.00
.55 US
2001
AD
.fD
.311
QUARTERLY DJVI)EJI)S PAD
F
CalIkr~l Jun.30 Sep.3O 00e.31 Y1996
.50
1.95
.~ .50
.50
200
1991
.50
.50
.50
.50
200
1991
.50
.50
.50
.50
2.00
1.
.50
.50
.50
.50
.50
.50
.50
(AI_
.... Ii .. ,..""'"~........
E>ocl 114"3): till, (501). Nul ... rpl , ....... J.n,
J,no ,''''', 80""0111, 00<. ''''''. (CliononrIc. gans (kJsses): '84, ($3.40); '85, 12j;
BJ EJr:cL S51shant sp:i.' divd paid 1D189.
ctIs. intgtMIII. In "99, 5171.6 milion; $2..18hih.
".91;; '89, \13.311: '92, 52;: '9411.45;1: '95, .... dO" -no...,
Nov. GOBS......
101 In mo.. odj." __ .... (!) Egs. ma,
23; '96, (16 ; "97, (51J; '98, $1.69; '99,
Nov. 201'1.Apsrnx. dlVd PIiI)'Il'III"d dItas: LtardI lICIl: IDqldue nchal9l ~ sin 0IlI...

.....

'"

20.0

",.so

''''

..
54

32

10.0

5728ll

221.7
321.1
266.0
171.2

-- --

Percent 30.0

108 m.r.5

.,

Ca:~
..-

Tlarge' Pric. Rngl:


2003 2004 2005
160
120
100
-- 80

'

..

8odI. VBlue

".1

"

1990 1991 1992


38.99 3826
38.03
34.96
36.65
18.41 16.33 1557
2610
8.53
5.91
807
3.57
8.SS
d~
1.l2
1-3D
8'4
7.12
6.l6
3.93
3.76
.11
.-"1
19
228
<12.2'
..
..
,.so 1.61
1.43
.48
m
414
314
2 ..
2.90\
S.'4
1.32
.63
.85
'.85
19.50
24.43
14.58 1439
23.55
26.71
28.03
1~16 17.68
.....
69.62
"'4
.. HM, 41.6
4.4
B.5
11>
B~
31
.. HMF 2B2
.13
II
.33
.14
.22
55
..
.. .4' 2.3' 04.1% "5"" 4.5% 3.6'
CAPITAL STRUCTURE n ofll3MlO
2635.1 2434.3 2519.3
TGtaI o.tt 12708.7 mil. D.... k'l 5 Yrs $1500.0 mil.
33.3'
22.6' 22."
LT Debt $2031.6 mi. LTlntefat $120.0mil.
133.0 138.9
162~
454.9 2129
2651
(LT iTfIlml earned: 1.2r, *'fal il1nsf
30.'%
(391 of c.p~ 33.0'
32"
aMlI3(le: 12l)
17.311f. 11.2% 10~%
Las., UnCllpttllind AnnuallW!nlals $17.1 mil.
349.3 341B 449.1
403.5
313.8
3B2Jl
P.nslon liabllfy None
1682.9 lB59~ 19n.S
226% 131%
PldStoetNone
(61%ofCapl)
21.0'; 14.7% 13.4%
CCIIIIIIIO. Stodr. 78,700,000 ItIS.
IIARKET CAP: $3.2 bilion (lIId Cap)
20.'" 9.'% 7.7%
CURRENT POSrnON
'lJQ/lNI
23%
38%
43%

''Cash F\ow"

73.0

41.9

0,

.,. ,..

'.

lQllII

5783J

is.1:''''

70.8

4.9%

?fm1

!K"nli.o,

,., t~'"
:::"15M~ "'
1989
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

7D.5
51.~

DIV'D
YID

Decillions

207

ANNUAL

85.0
47.6

o {} {} {} {} {} {} {} {}

Institutiorwl

.53.0

282

"'dill: 1I~ P,uAl

"2

'11"
"

{}
{}

39.6

f""

-. .. ,{}
{}

Roll

DJFIIIAIIIJJA
{} {}
{} {}

35.8
23.1

"=,....
2.fDf-15!!1:

ra _

10
(+4
Inskler OllClslona

37,8

Low:

LEGENDS
U I ll:.~FbIlDp SI

2003-45 PROJECTJON~_
Am"oIaI
Price
GMt
Retarn
w."" DO (+1~1 25"

....
..,

High:

-... R"'~Pril:r Shn9fl

.70 (lJXl-IlUrt.l!)

41 Pf 28 5e"~HIIf)IFTNE213

I~CENT
PRICE

I~""',

IIClUll ....
i!. aIllIiRed Inn SllUItIi5I1*Wd It! be ~
... it p1III'iIMlI ....
~
E ORNl'f ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HERE". Thil.JIttiI::ai:Ilil.sh:IJ'b5lltrmiben~.~irlSMllIW.
ill "'I pti1ed. *dIri: II ldIlIlwm.
CI" UIoIIl_lJINI1IiRg II' ~
III)' pi'IIIIf. *IlOrX JU**II

II

....

".t,UId.
pill.

CI"

pu:U:l

C'""P'1,:
SIDell"

Earn
,

F... n.... """ath

rIe.5b1b111ty

75

PNdic:Llbi
,

I',

2D
:

II:

II

IRECENT
IPRICE

THE PITISTON CO. NYSEPZB

16 ~TKl 25.0(~~.1J:)1~J%1.74 ~ 0.7%

High;

Low:

4~1
25.3

32_8
22.4

4~9 32.0
28.0

18.1

22.2
10.7

LEGENDS
65 I II,,.. TblOp"

~~
Pt'b!.lnngll
ShatI"_~11lCeSSiDrr
, I
__111'1,111,11,1""

"II

II,

"'I

" TOT. RETURfII ~

na

"Illy

:::.,

1 yr.

80
91
86 5h..... 10.0
3440~ -427g; 391~ .~dMI
S.D

1lAIITII.

0).05

1990 1991
Pittston Company consisls of three di~- f-"=--"=-f"~-'-'=,-f'=:....c="-+="'---=-=":--'-"=l-"'=~""'c+"='t-"'''''''''''=='-I''=~
..
..
lJO.lll
sions. Pittston BAX (formedy PittSton Bur..
..
7.JO
linglan Group), PitIs10n Minerals Group
..
..
lJ5
(coal and min,rals), and Pittston Brink's
..
..
(annored car and home securily). The Services (PIS) and Minerals (PIM) Groups f---":':"'-'::'+---,,;;-~ct-~~":;'+-~-.F---.~-i~---i~~~~~~~~--i~
..
..
UII
.. ..
Z.. ,6
were aoaIed in July 1991 In January of
..
..
1996, sharehold.,. of the serviceS Group
..
voted to divide ~s shares into two separately I- ..
..
..
traded slacks; Pittston Brink's Group (PZB)
..
..
and Pittston Budinglon Group (PlX). In Jan-, _":':"'_":':"'f---::=':"'-:::::=':"'f---':':"'--=~-:':~"":::':"'-c:'~-:':~---::=1---::=1~~~~~+"';;..J
uary of 2000, all tile group's shares were r ..
..
exchanged m form one stock; Pittslon Co.
..
..
(PZB).
.. ..

...

J-:====t~r:=~tI=ilit:~ii:t~~~:t=l)~jj~t1~t~~~~~~~

CAPrrAl STRUCTURE as of 'l3OlOO


Teul Delli $388.1 mill. Due In 5 Yn $116.8mil.
LTDebt$271.9mil.
IT 1nt8rn1 ~:~ :t,P'O

..
.

2. 0
3611
4.Jl,

Laues. Uncapltllizacl Annual nlntills $31.5 mil


Plnslon LLlbllity NDfIlt
PId Stock None
CommonStock50.306,l82shlM1lS
(73%ofC8p'l)

-.

.-

aof1D151OO
)..
IIARKETCAP: $105 millon (Small Cep.
CURRENTPQSrrlON
1H1
1199 9I3OIDO
Ca~~
Receivables

54.0
180.1
244.8859.9633.1

122.7
InventDry(FIFO)
9.5
22.6
-41.6
Othlr
38.6
39.3
7-4.8
CunentAss8ts
346.9
901.9
872.2
kcts Payabkt
59.6
1520
204.8
Debt Due
51.9
134.2
116.8
Other
195.1
546.9
589.2
Current. Uab.
"""'3'D6l""""'833:1
910.8
ANNUALRATES Past
Pat Esfd 'W.'I!
d~{pIrml
11Tn.
SYn.
.'130'15

31.7
-41.5
51.1
59.7
3811 34.6'
30.7% 33.51
5.6% 6.3"
6.51 6.6'
4.0
20.8
38.8
50.7
12.6
8.0
5.8
5.5

__

__

__

175.2
11.0%
18.1%
16.3'

'0"

215.5
18.71
19.3%
11.11

258.8
19.411
19.1\
18.4"

8"

711

19.0%
11.8%
1%

79.1
37.0%

40.8'

6.711'

5.51
40.3
93.3

Z.,I

68.7

38.6

380.5
461.4
18.0% 1U",4
19.3'
11.1%
18.-4% 1!i.3'
5%
5%

BUSINESS : The Prtlston Com panyconslSl$


. at arJII)J&d all',money
processing (Bmks Inc.), homll security servi:es (Blink's Heme
Security). IIi"Right (HoAX GbbBI), and naturall8SOWC8 oPllliltim
(coal, gold, & natural gas). The company was formltd through lie
~
pi its SAX (PZX), arq.s (PZB) and Yiw;nls (PZY)
..........
1100. R&Yenues outside atlbth ArnerE8 llI'e about 55%
IlJ"M

~~~.H

l'DI

87.2

68.8
395.1
149.6
9.0%
11.6%
11.11
5%

J1I
J2.D%
""
d2fJ.#
210
765
.. ~
....~
15%

1",

55.0 Nit ProfttlSniDI


k1CDh11TuRN
1.Ji Nit
10.1 WotIng Clp1 (.... iIJ
210 LongT..-m DeblIWI
8M stir.
&.01 RltllmanToIIIC1p'1
lOl R.tumanShl.Ecdw

an

Prof,...

10"
,M

450
f205

fG.es
12.G"

RetlJnecllo Con Eq

ff~

lid 8350 Sharehokkn .


FMR Cap. owns -4.5% d ccmnon sma; Tigw Mgml. 7.6%;
Mawn:k Capitil~ 6.3%; David J. Grelll'lll & Co., B.9%; arrE811 ....d
dlllCin, 1.3% (:wi) Pmxy). Pras., Chairman & CEO: Midlael T.
Dan. Inc.: VA Addr8ss: 1801 BaybBny Ct, P.O. BD.:c18100, RJt:h.
monel VA23226-B1oo Tel 804-289-9690 Wllb_
"""

ptJyaes
8111.,

here is that high oU and gas prices have


increased the dem.and for coal. RegardIng
the BAX group, however, we don't know
how much more patient the company will
be. Unless
there
are signs of an operating
turnaround
by the second quarter, this
division may also be on the auction block.
Meanwhile,
by seeking clients with high ...
credit quality, income at the home security
business
(36% of operating profits) should
Improve. Furthermore,
the Australian
annored car operation will likely be runnlng more effidently,
absent the bloated.
COStstructure so evident this year. Too.
selling price hikes at the armored. car dJvislon, belng implemented to cover higher
fuel and labor casts, should Call to the bottom line by 2001.
This issue has substantial recovery
potential. Once profits look to be heading
firmly in an upward dJrectlon,
we think
disillusioned lnvestors will take another
look at this equity. Until then. however,
we don't advise commitments_ Although
the stock has substantial long-tenn capital
gains potential, Its TimeUness rank for the
next six to 12 months is 5 O-owest).
Jeremy J. Butler
November 24. ZOOO

(At Baed on wwage shares OlItStIndll9


StOB. Nul: --.l1JgS rep:x1 dllll ilIte Janu~ :
Bad on unauditedpro forma d. b" Company'sFlllaneil' Strwngth
thrDugh 1996, lhen diullld. Earn'"9s n 1999 (B) Ned divilend meetiIg Feb 10lh Goes ex 1992, 1993, 1994. III'ld the fnt nine month. at Stodl's Price Stabilly
ududll a gall on I'85lridMI IIMSInwnI of abold Feb 15th. DIVdpmnl dAIs the rnt at 1995
PI'1Q GlQwth Plrsidlftct
$0 11. and a m bn mll..nlla81 d1aIgeS of MIlCh.Jul'lll, Sept., and Dec. (C)Inmklns
Eanings PrMi~
II 2lDD, VIlle I..JIe PI.tIbIIil& IIIe. AI ~
~
r.... ~
15 IIIUined IIa'n DnI5 ~
10 be,....
.. 15 FJO'idelI
~
d Illy liML _
lllE f'IJBI.JSKR IS IlT Jl.[{f>QNSB..E J:ORNff ERRORS OR OIMSSlOfilSHEREIlI 1lIro ~
IIsn:1y"'~S
eaL .unal1l1e
'*'P-1.
I
I
I '.
: f f:
d l 1M]' be~
-.:I ......, IDJ
II Uhei IDml, ....
b 9-*9 II l'IIibtiIg IIIJ piIIIIIIl II IIB:tnnI:: pItIbIin. SlIWte p1lIU1.

'"*"" ~

145
3to"

fDl AIID/y'd.tDNttProl"

US

at Ihe total Hasa boUI 16,500

This hasn't been


a good
year
for
the
Pittston Company. Indeed, share net
will llkely rumble a whopping 70%
in
Rewoues
-- 29_0'4 10.0"
2000. By amalgamating fonner tracking
''C8ShFIow"
21.5%
8.5"
company Pittston Minerals (PZM), the
~~~:~
== '~~
Pittston Company (PZB) became liable for
Book Value

21.0%
10.0"
PZM"s contingent liabilities. This hurt
Ca.
Q1JARIDLYRE'IEIiIIU(I"')Full I'ZB stock. Next, the BAX air freight unit's
Ind.,
Mar.S1 Jun.sa Sep.30 Dec.31 Yur results
suffered as It kept more than the
1m /:51.4 Z5II.6 280.0 301.2 1101.4 nonnal number of leased airplanes
flying
1998 310.3 359.8 381.5 399.7
In the much slower-than-normal
first
,.
954.9 972.3 1044 1118
~.2
quarter. In the second interim, profits at
2000 019.1 1033 1055.3 11Q2.. 421D
the armored car business In France
z001 IUD 1QTD 1120 1110
.oJO
declined markedly due to a nationwide
CaJEARNllGSPERSHAREA
FUll
cash-in-transit strike by employees. TIlird.ncIar Mar.31 Jun.3D SllP.30 OK'"
Yur period
share net was much lower
than
1197
.40
.46
.50
.54
1.90 antidpated as margins in the BAX. bust1.
.44
.52
.51
.55
2.02 ness narrowed considerably due to much
,.
.44
.39
.65
.67
2.15 softer global demand and very castly
2000
.21
d.03
.15
.32
.15 severance packages for former BAX execu2001
.2IJ
.25
.30
.35
1.1G Uves. Our final-quarter estlmate Is nonCa"
QUARTBLYDIVIlEfl)SPAI).
Full
heroic. We are going out with $0.32 a
endar MIr'" JllnJO SeD.30 Dec..31 Yur share,
less than
half last year's tally, as
1996 .025 .025 .025 .025
.10 some of these problems persist.
1197 .025 .025 .025 .025 .10 We are cautiously
optbnlstic
about a
1191 .025 .025 .025 .025
.10 rebound
next year. By then, we should
1191 .025 .025 .025.025
.10 see proceeds from the sale of some of the
2DGO .025
.025 .025
unprofitable
coal assets.
One bdght
spot

~:g:

313.4

18.8"1.

13.6
35.0%

B++
70
20

SO
f f

!RECENT

PRAXAIR INC NYSE.px


3 ...,""'"
3 NI5'lIWJ3
3 ..... ,a,,'"

TllEUIIESS

wm
TECHNICAl
IElA

.95

1.6%

JPR!Cf

LEGENDS
BoO I

a:,'Ih
..".':'='~

rllMDp

High:

17.5

low:

13.6

2.5
18.3

'''6
14.1

34.1
19.8

50.1
31.5

"".0
39.3

fl3.9
30.7

58.1
32.0

Tarv-t Price Ringe


2003 200. 2005

54 .
30.3

...".

'00

!oh

Pm ShIfII

~d_~sm:rnion

(l.DO-M.rort4)

200~5 PROJECllON . _

'"
32
2.
20

,.
12

Institutional

Declllll;mll

1QJ.
.,

1m..

16&

'.0

X12.. P.rc-nt

184

14$ shar..

I.G

~::'11~5~~
12J~1Z1~~ traded

.u

Praxair Inc. was inrorporated in Delaware 19901991'


during 1988 under tho name Union Carbido
Industrial Gases Inc. On Juno 30, 1992,
128,291,841 shares of common stock .Iong

19.26

2.53
.85

1992

1993 1994

19.35
2.69

19.79
2.90

18.13
3.01

.84

.94

1.06

1995

19.66
3.45
1.45

22.39
3.85
1.82
.32

with associated rights of Praxair were dis

1996 1997
28.25
4.79
2.11

30.09
5.43

2.53

1998
29.92
5.49
2.60

1999

2000

2001

cYALlIEUllEP1J8
1:. o~

29.11
5.53

31,15
6.05

34.1e s.lnpwsh
1.45 Cllh ROll" perth

46.75
US

2.n

ll21l

125 fMftings per III "

4.5D

_.
.13
.25
.28
.38
.44
.50
.56
,62
,M Div'dso.crdplrlh
tributed kl Union Carbide sharehold91S on a f----""'-""",+--.;;;<---.'irt----,;;;r-----i~_._F____,~-iF._+___iii+___iirr____n._r.::=;:>=::2:::=:'=.+_____;;TI
2.89
327
2.~
1.79
2.36
4Ir
5.67
5.73
4.84
4.11
(1Q
1JQ CIpUpendingpwsh
5.13
5.00
4.13
4.72
6.09
7.98
12.22
13.48
14.44
14.040 11.35 2G.1S lookYlbaplrsh
c
one-for-one basis.
125.157 1l7.fi
131.57 134.45 137.B6 l..w~
5.49
1~7.37 1151.5 I~.lr.l
f:ll,:MJ
'~f,(J(J cnnrotUIIS ~Ist'll
II
CAPITAL STRUCTURE .. of ~
..
..
16.8 ,>2
14.0
13.9 ,9>
19.5
16.7
16.' _ .. __
..... , Pit Rd.
T'" Debt $3243 mia. Due In 5 YB $2055.0 mill.
IT Debt $2729 mil
IT Intlrest $200.0 mil.
..
..
1.02
.!IO
.92
.93
1.20 1.12
.81
.94
...;_.......
R_
PIE....
Ind. $8 mil. capitalized leases.
..
.
.8"
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
.9%
.9%
12%
1.3"
A'II AnnHllY'd Y"1Ikl
(LT rrt8Ift1 earned: 5.5x; IDtlII i1t8res1
.
2420.0 1469.0 2604.0 243.. 2711.0 3146.0 4449.0 4135.0 4633.0 4639.0 5416
$J58 Sola ~"I
txM!RIge: 3.Ox)
{53" of Cap'~
291% 243% 26.3% 24.7% 27.2% 26.6% 25.3% 26.0% 27.1% 25.8% 2U%
26JJ'1O -.iee .._
leu., Uncapitalized Annual nmlals $80 mil

1-:c:::-:,.--;=-:+=C:--:-":O=--f-::;;';':;'--:-':::"-+~C:-=:O=------:=':-t-=':-t--:=t-=7"'::"=--=-';;=-l-----:==_j

Pension
pfd

liablltty

$24 mill in '99 YS$27 mil in '98.

Stock $20.0 mill.

PM, Dlv'd $1.5 mill

55O,OOOshs. 7.48% cum.,1l!Id.41OO It S100/lhM!.


200,000 Ihs. 6.75% cum., J8d. 9/02 at $100/lhill1!
(lesslhan 1% of Cap'Q
Common Stock 158,603,216 shs. (47% of Cap"Q

198.0 2'6.0

251.0 2620

213.0

219.0 420.0

444.0

461.0

.... 0

120.0

124.0

203.0

262.0

416.0

425.0

441.0

32.91 27.71 20.31 24.21

2821

26.41 24.31

21.3"

2421

8.3"
7.51
8.8"
d99.0 dB&4.0 131.0
933.0 1703.0 2874.0

8.8"
105.0

9.5%
d390.0
2111.0

56.01
5.0"
2fifi.0
286.0

=~~~~::~
MARKET CAP $6.3 billion (Large Clp)

CURRENT POSITION

1198

199!J

813lWO

34

76

Receivables
lmenIDry (lIFO)
Assets Held For Sale
OlI1er
CumlrllAss8ts

919
319

122
1394

848
310

--;m-

31
905
313

126
1375

Other
Cumtntliab.

532
1289

480
1725

465
1359

Ca:~

ANNUAl RATES Put


ot'c:trqe(ptr rIlJ
11YrL
Sales
".5","

''CsshFlow''
EOa.~.~.
..

flU

18.0%
23.0%

--

llUAR1BllY SAW

IlIr.31
1997 1158
1191 1201
1M 1118

Pat Est'd 'W-'I!


:51'rL
tlI'I).l5
9.0%
5.5"

'1.5% 12.0%
15.5% 18.0%

Book Value

ca.
endu

101

1230

Jun.

II~

9.~
13.5%

SeD.:SODicJ1

1178

l1!1O 1209

1234
1149

1201
116!1

1265

6.5"
10.0"

1215

1191
1203

IZfD

Full
Year
4735.0
4833.0
4639.0

!3!Il
Full
OtcJ' rur
.61
253
.66
260
.70
2n

2101 131 IJ25 US! 1m


CaIEARNINGS PER SHARE"

end:Ir
1997
1998
1M

2000
2001
CaII'IIdu

Jun.30
.69

S.p.30

.62
.62
.61
.11
.75

.66
.66
.16
.12

.66
.69
.16
.13

thr.!1

.69

.11

1011

.15

J.Z!

QUARTERlY OI'll)ENDS PAIl

IIlr.31 Jun..30 SeD.30 DK.31


1996
.095
.095
.095.095
1991 .11
.11
.11
.11
1998 .125
.125
.125 .125
1M
.14
.14
.14
.14
2000 .156 .156 .156 .156

lA) f'I'in.-y hu '98, dilul8:l ihereBfIIar.


Em. llOl'lI'8CtI". gains IIIrd (losses): '82. (3()
and 1992". FAS8 108 chg. of ($1.10); "93,
(19); 1M, 3; '00, (3&); 1ll, (7l; '98, (11);
ID llIlD. 'Alor l.fto ~
lilt. M ~
__
.

i1.,

Full
Yur

.38
.44

.50
.56

645.0

12.9%
18.6%
1l6"

..

107.0

143.0

4.3"
4.8"
5.K
d1038 d519.0 d140.0
176.0 669.0
964.0

650.0 .... 0
20.0%
16.5%
16.5"

..

15.0%
22.8%
19.91

13%

635.0 839.0 1121.0 '999.0 2.97..


12.2%
22.5%
175"

14.8"
242%
19.8"

22%

15.1%
23.41
19.41

18%

11%

10.5%
9.5".4
16.8% 18.9%
14.04% 16.41

17%

2895.0
241)7.0 2365.0
9.9"
17.7"
14.8%

11.4"
18.6'
15.4%

19%

20%

1]%

41S
415
2181

4JIl O.,..elI1l~ (!'"ml


52G fkt Proltllnllll

1.1,

51>,:.-

f7~
1tD1

11.0% .RlUftonToIIIC~'
1lB RIIllmOll Shr. Eauil
133
RstlNdtaCon.Eq

211 AI OWd... Not Prof

1.11

....
2<.5%
525
7MJ

21JJ% ~
Tu Rni
l~ N.tProltllqln
W
100 WorUIlIC.p'I($nill)
2751
2fDD langTsm DIbIllnIJ
1758 3165
r~) .

11.0'1

, ..
1."

n.1S
11.11

.75
1JDO

m.
1US

1iR
13.01

III

f-:::===-cO---,------:------:-L,='--'-----:-----:----L------:----:-----:----=--;-~,...,.____!:=-':__=""',___:______:_____:_=::_!_____:__:__j
I!IUSINESS: Pr.u:air Inc:. is lhe wmfs tlinI iIrgesl supplier rI in- Surfaca Tecf1noklgi!s unl mll'tetl thermallXl8tings (9% of sa.>.
dusiial gases. lis pnxIuds (nnospheri=,
process, and Ipeci;I!y
gases) are used kI enhance performance appli::ations. DisiilI.rlb'I
IIMI1hods ..,: on-sile, and PltUged. Mapr rT*tIIts .. : rnetaI
fabn~ion,
priray Irwtah, chemicall,
food Ind beverage,
healhc;n, eled"ona, glim, ~
end pe~, and envl'onmanl.ll

Atqd. Liqui::l Cartlonicl, 1196. Dell". lilte: 52%. Had aplO. 24,100
empklyees as of 12199. orr. & di'. awn 1.3~ 01 c:amon; FMR
Corp., 11% (~OO proxy). Chai"man: H. L.i::hlenberu-. CEO: Dennis
RaiIy. Inc.: DE. Address: 39 Old Rilgebwy Ro.d, DiIlIbury, CT
06810. Tel: 800-PRAJ(AIR Irrlwnel:: www.prDili'.com.

Praxair
continues to benefit
from aggressively, it has focused. on rotting
strong demand for industrial gases.
costs. To that end. Praxalr recently anOverseas results have shown lhe grealest nounced 10%-30% price and surdlarge Inimprovements, led primarily by a stronger creases [or U.S. industrial gases. We beSouth American economy and fast-growing
lleve these increases will help abate rising
Asian markets. In North America, though raw materials costs. The company also indemand has been strong. hJgher energy tends to restn..r:cture certain contracts to
prices and a slowing U.S. economy have recover higher costs incurred With inflated
weakened oper-atlng margins. We belleve
energy prices.
these factors w1ll have an adver.;e effect on CoJet appeacs to be a pnnn1slng tec::hearnings in the fourth quarter and Into nology. Coherent Jet tedmology, or CoJet,
2001_ Meantime, PX"s Surface Tech- is an oxygen injectIon technology that ennologies division continues to suffer from a hances steel productlon, while providing
lacklusler aerospace industry, but its poor cost and energy savings. PraxaJr Intends
performance was further weakened by soft to begin licensing the pnx:luct in the 8nt
demand in commercla.1 aircraft markets.
half of 2001, and have at least two licenses
The positive side Is that once the signed by lhe end of the year. To that goal,
aerospace
industry
recovers, Praxalr
Praxalr has fanned. a separate business.
should be in a position to reap good gains. Metals Technologies, which will focus on
AlJ In all, we expect share net to Increase further developing Cojet, and other techabout 11% this year, to $3.00 a share, and nologles that serve the metals industry.
about 8% next year, to $3.25 a share. We believe that within five years CoJet
Nevertheless.
these targets
represent
could add as much as $1.00 to share net.
respective SO.05and $0.20 reductions from
These shares are neutrally ranked. for
our previous estimates.
Timeliness. and as Praxair is now conThe company is staying conservative.
figured, offer average
appreciation
In that It has cut its capital spending by potential out to Z1I03-ZD05.
about 30% this year. Instead of spending Edward Plank
December 22. 2000

'99, (61!). NxI egs. rpl dll8 lite Janu-.y.


(C) Incl. inlangibles: In "99: $1,.433 mil; Company's Filtl.ncllli StNngtll
(8) Next di. I1I8Blnl about JIII1. 25th. Goes $9.OOlsharv.
stock's Pnc. StablitJ
8ll-di'd aboul Mar. 7th. Appmx. di'd pi!YllM!nt
In mlions.
Price Growth PerwistHc8
dates II1l 15th of Mar., June, Sep., Dec.
E) 199O.nd 1991 ana pro tnrllI.
_Earnings P.-cIictabilty
rMiUII rIIIIl!riII is IIIIUined IIDlOI _
~
10 lie ~
..., is ,....
.....,.
...-IIie5 II
UId

lH[PU8USHERI5NOTRE~E'tOllINt[RRORSORoe.as9ONSHERrlll.TJIiI,....iislrdJb'~_.nane:tliN_
"~1lII)' IRrepaiIDII.
P'I*do ~.
_-..
UIId"'~II'

*'*. ~

7~
049.0
893.0

335.0

.J(

4.15
_
r57.J111

ID)

.........

-.ypftlll. llIildraIic~,

_~P_1
~.

poUt

I'.

II:

8++
65
65
as

11-.

QUANEX CORP. NYSENX


3 ......,.",
3 .... ..."

TREunss

SAfID

High'

Low:

19.~

13.1

18.~1

(i1"'1! ""

,1t.lI .

.- .... .... . ...


J6

14.0

Pereerrf

31

34 _hard

"

". ,'I," ,10. I"

..".

--

"".

262
85.2

2ii9.8

....
,.....

75.2
121

CunwtrtLillb..
RATES

Pat

~""U-")

Inn..

Sa'"
"Cash
A"",'

l:

-...
....
1997
1998
1199

2001
.......
lr
1991
1998
1199

2001
Ca.

04.5%

7.0%
5.5"
15.5'"
8.0%

Flew"'
EBrnilgs
D1vi:lencls
Book Value

78.5
20.8
212.04
70.2
10.5
55.4
1a5.1

.2.8

01/,.,

ANNUAL

87.2

85.'

(A/F__

2
53.8
133.7

Est'd'l7.'.

Pat

le"''''
g.""

nil15"

..""

15..5%
36.5%

1a.~

4.""
8.""

3.0%

13.{)%

IIIl,\ cUi

Q1JARTERl.I SAW ~
JIn.3i Apr.30 Jul 1
161.9 186.0 196.6
181.0 203'
204.9
183.1 202.9 206.6
199.3 203.3 254.1
25/1
115
!lSD

195.6
208.2
211.5
237.5

,.1

Y.,
""""
T06.1
T97.5
810.1
930.2

..

2fS
1BO
EARMNGS PER SHARE"
A"""
J .. ~1 Apl'.30 J.I~l
Ocl3' Y.r
.59
.25
.53
.61
1.98
.16
.55
.88
2.25
.66
B5
2.56
.2.8
.79
.29
.86
2.<16
.62
.69
.IS
,7S
S7
:l.71l
.33

."

QUARTmfDWBCDSPAI)c
Jun.JO Stp.30 Dtc.31
.15
.15
.15
.15
.15
.16
.15
.16
.16
.16
.16
.16
.16
.16
.15
.16
.16
.16
.18
.16

, IIlr.31

'996
1997
1998
1199

79.6

F~I

Yur
.60
.62

.66

."

."""""""""ot"'flr;

illIfJ

pIiIled. ~

32

24
20

"

'.
'"

..
.

. .'

'.'

.
.."." .. ..-." r.
....
.....
.. Tat RE1\JRIIII

-34.1

3".
.

199~OOO
66-09
6591
'.59 515
210
2."
.59
.60
197
3.20
12.6> ".32

53.10

'.61
U8
.61
091
19.13

56-2'
5.36
2.25
.6'1

,."
19.19

1> ..

,,,.

".0>

... "

105
.70
2.6\

9.1
57
2.7'>

14.5
.801
2.1\

1L'
.6'1
2.3\

895.7 746.1
11.1%
11.110 12.-4"
31.9
32..
38.'
33.9
32.9
27.7
02.0\ ,2.0'> 35.0\
3B\
3.1%
17'>
771
1102
52.a
201.9
l1ts 2535
170.5 194.7
268.8
13.8%
8.6\
19.91 16.9% 10.31.
12.6% 1l.7%
72\
37\
20\
30\

7915
129\

8911

7.7"

51.1ft

m
2.56
.6'1
'-"I
2124

".D.'

15
2.<16
.6'1

.'"

1UO

UII

UII

"Ca'" Flow" "" '"


271l Elrnin;1 pII' III
.11 OiY'dsDed'dpw'"

.... 1"""'_'''''''

21.. Boak Vatut

III

pII'

L'

810.1
14,511

5301

IA'i Mn r~ KDO
Rliltin

..

910

,=
,,~ ,=
,

361

PIERdo

AVV Ann' [Wd YWd

3U

,....,.

-tImllJ
OpnInQMqIn

"'1"1
.., ....ftl~

I....... 'u ....


.., ....ft ......
111
Cap'{""iI}LccvT ... DobI {~
195 Shr.Equ;ty ($lIoII)
Rim l1li ToIII CIp'
12.3% R.taml 01\ Stw. EqWly
"". R"""'"C<nEq
\ All Dlv'da to NIt PraI

1:l1Ill
31'"
3.8\
'04.9
191.1
266.5
UTI
13.6\

,<5"

.."

."" 1-,

..

0345

cnmon "nl UIIIII]!

55
3.3\

:\5:1\ 13<9'4
.2\
'9'/0
76.3
63.0
119.1
1882
212.0 301.1
.9\
9.6\
13.1\
12.5\
10.0%
91\
27'>
23\

19,7

2001 OYALlIEUNfPlJ8,IIC.
71" Sllftperlh A

.50
2.8\

"
.. "'.,
39.3
30.1

,,/III
~

llIS
..12.1

--

too
.1/1

,....
,.....

'1.511

".66..

,.....

1'"

1''''

....

,.

35.01<
U%
100

425

11.3%
11",

,.""
'711

has openII:ior1$ II two ~:


&ngll1elred slMtl bani and ahninurn ~ucts. Makes Ip8Cialized
pmduas tom carbon and ,I;))' ...
and lluminum. 0Iai1gs: hcJI
roI8d aIJbcw) and lJoy Del bars, fmhlcl .uniXln sheet and
I.malled pmlllL1l. Key IINIItets: tnulSpcrtnon, espial eqllipfMnl:,
homebui:ling IIKI MnOdeIing, and dllf.nse. Divili::lnl: MacSEeI.

NichoIs-Horr.hil!ld,
and Piper IITlpICl W depr8C. rste: 6.01f.. Hili
3,393 ernph, S, 113 stkhll:n. DimBnsional Fund Advistn, Inc.. holl:1l
5.8'4 at the corrmon; orrars lH1CIDinIctrn 4.5% (1.00 Proxy).
PJ'u. 8J1d CoED.; Vsnon E. 0ec:hsM. InctI"pCB&t DE. ~
1900 West loop SouI1. Sun 1500, HouSlon, Texn T7rI1.7. Tel:
713-961-4tOO.
1nl:emBt: WWW.Quanex.CDITl.

Quanex is continuing to increase the


edge it holds on its less weU-endowed
counterparts
in the steel industry. So,
at a time when many steel and metals
companJes have seen their operations
founder under pressure from shrinklng
volume, record Imports, and falllng prices,
this maker of steel bars and alum1nwn
products has held Its own. Underpinning
the stee!maker's relative autperfonnance
has been its ability to add market share,
largely sidestep the industrywlde import
problem (because of Its customized sales
mlx), and keep Prid~
erosiOn l~ly
:In
check. Thus. ft5caI 2
(ended on
lObe.31st), whlle a down year far Quanex. was
not the debacle it was elsewhere.
Meanwhile, we look for the steel and
aluminum producer
to widen the gap
between itself and ita key rivals in the
current
fiscal year. Indeed, not only
should this well-positioned capital goods
fl.nn capitalize on c:;ontinulngsolid demand
in :Its core specialized market niches and
make strides in its newer endeavors, but
Quanex should also be helped by recent
5treamll.n.tng at Its ailing Piper Impact
unit. Further remedial action also cannot

be ruled out. But even as Quanex is now


configured, the company could stiU post a
11J%earnings gain in this year's modestly
expand1ng industrial economy. Many or Its
~I"S
would gladly settle for that.
anex is weD positioned.
as it retains
a favorable sales mix.. a modem network of
core facUlties, and sound balance-sheet
ratios. As such, we would not expect it to
nndertake headline-making lnltlatives in
the next 3 to 5 years. Incremental mix. and
facility adjustments are the enhancement
efforts most likely to be undertaken.
Earning power Is considerable.
even in
the absence of additional mix and facility
refinements. Our longer-range view, which
incorporates healthy steel and aluminum
demand, but not a sustained cyclical peak,
has Quanex eamtng $4.00 a share a year.
on average, over an extended period .
The issue, which is holding up rather
weD during this latest steelindustty
collapse, sdll exhibits a fair der:
of
undervaluation
on the basis 0 total
return. Meanwhile. me healthy and very
weU-covered payout should ease the waft
for thJs long-term payoff .
Harvey S. Katz. CFA
December 29. 2000

BUSINESS:

Cuanex CaporaOOn

~7, 12.72;.... 821; ~

......:1..,,,.__ ..

"_".'00030."_30.

Skld's
rice Stahlity
Pricli Growth ~
Earnings PI1ldictCIIIty

rI:70~
IICIn~"""_.
,., ,
.wee

RE 5l8lEORAN'1[RRORSaROMISSlONSHER~.l1II5~is'5tElykr~
...

5lInII1I--'-

- -- - --

," ---

10

-- .

year. (8) pm.y esmilgs tInlugh f1SClll1997, '00, $3.16. Nexleami1gs .. port liIhI Fe
. [)8C8mbfIr 31.
d"8:lIlel1lafB".
ExcL exnonl~
tJSS: '85, ~INut divi:lend II188ting _bout Febluiry 25. (D) In mili:lns.
~; nom1IClITing gallS: '804, S3t!;
, 46; '86,
DeS ax i1bou1 Man::h 11. DiY'd paymen1 dates:
-lJlJO .....
J.iIe ~M~...-.a
F..., ......
i5I1tUir11e11l
... S1U1t15 ~IDbel1liltfto"i5~I'IIlDIIf"""

lH[PUBlISIIlISNJ"T
rlt _, be ......

'"

32.6
99.0
96.7
'2.8
241.1

25.9

_ '111"111

50
40

12

12.0

... ,...

C1Jl11!nl Assets
Aeds PaYllbl.
09btDue

26.8

15.'"

-.
'.'

Receivables
(UFO)

TargetPric. R.n~
2003 200. 200'

,.-<

29.0

33.8
15.6

.'

'.'

."

..

~r*Jry

36.'

23.'

".

--

'1.1. "...

..

~'

..

c.J,,~

18.8

." ' ....

, ,1 111.

,.8,

--

29.1

16.0

3.8%

'"

.7
~
1_ 58 10149
9130
1993 199.
19M 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 199~992
40.82
50.18
54>8
-41.95
<16.28 SUI
2<.23 20.50 28.18
31.67
37.37
3.54
311
2.39
3.10
d.09
1.011
3.34
212
1.75
2.20
2.03
1.02
1.85
2.11
18
.18
.96
.52 d1.77
d.01
1.02
,.
.30
.<16
.52
.56
.56
.1'
"0
"
,04
.37
1.09
3.62
2.70
3.17
'.02
2.02
.36
.16
2."
10.83
12.33 12.99 11.10
10.48 10.91
9.03
7.83
9.13
810
7A1
1lJ1
".36
10.66 'U6
l2.'" 1L'" 11.!fl
'226
'226
..
.. 5.3
75
72
15.5
651
962
2U
15.5
9.3
.,
..
.53
.99
5.11
5.81
116
SI
. 7
I."
..
..
3.0'>
1.4ft
1.9\
2.7\
21\
3.211 2.7'>
CAPrrAL STRUCTUREas 017131.
6502
5889
612.1 616.1 6992
Total Debt $l1'.Bmil.
Due In 5 y~ $SO.Omi.
12.3\ 10.3%
9.211 85\
10.0\
LTlrrler..t $20.0 mill.
LTDlbt$21'.5mil.
229
25.7
lOB
28.5
29.'
Inc:l.$73.7 mil. 8.&!1" mfIWilfble Sl/!). debS. COl),
28.0
12.4
6.2
18.9
8.'
each COIN. do CClrl'VRln lit $31.50. shal'8.
38.0\ .4Z.0% U9% ,2.0'> '2.0'>
(T0lI1 mnst cownge: 3.5x)
(-4'" "f(',p~
4.3\
2.1\
1.1\
1.4%
2.7'>
Panslon l,*if)' $30.6'" n"99 \Il.
89.1 154.4
149.3 1z.f.6
7'1
S27.7mil ... 98
131.3 156.5 128.7 128.5 107.4
pt:I stocll None
181.04
152.5 237.6
225.8 2322
10.6\
6.6\
3.7\
Ccmmon StDdI13,611,3971hs.
'.0\ 1.5%
(58\ cfCap'Q 15.'''
81\
3.7\
2.6\
~1\
MARKET CAP: 1250 m1IDon (Small Cap)
13.6%
4.01
NMF
NYF 3.71
7/31.
CURRENT POSmoN
51\
N!IF
29'Iro
NYI'
71\

I~I

26~

l'lD

eo

+65%
16%
Inskler Decisions
fIlA."JAID
o 0 0 0 100 0 0
00000
0 0 0 0
001
0 0 0 0 0 0
Instttutiorwi Decisions
..,

27.3
17.0

21.3

IIIV'D

..._~,nU:In

Am1TatII

........,

11.4

11~r'lM
PfRATKl 048

!i.o

_ ........

31.8
15.5

23.1

9.1

(TrOing
W.,:llJ

LEGENDS
I u:.~ fbfDp ~
R.... t Pm Stcnqll

3...."""""

TECHNICAL
BEll .90 fl.oo MIIllll
2003-05 P.OJEC~N~_
50
30

18 PfRATkl 69

I~CENT
PRICE

IIJ

II/lB" bill.

Ill"

tMd b'

v---. II ......

.,

pW-.

II

*'-c:~,

II

pudud.

I',

60
15
3S

II:

II-

RALCORP HLDS.. INC. NYSERAH T~f8IT 14~ro 10.5(~:~~W~O.73~


lWEUNfSS - _111
SAFETY
3 ... ,IIlOl
TECHNICAL-

High: - ..24.*
Low: 13.5

...

28.0

28.6
HI.S

21A

23.1
9A

Nil
Target Price Ran.,.
2003 200.. 2005

19.4

11.5

LEGENDS
10.5 I l:II!Ih rlmrDp Sh
RellIie Pnl:e Shnqlh

50

-,-:;;,

~~,**Sf~

2003.05 PROJECroNS

~
Ll 7~,+~.\
30 r;'115%f
21"

1'/

HI

'"
32

--

2.
20

"
12

"

10

'.-'.

Insider DlIClslons
J
0
0
0

Ann'IT ...

D .. F A J
0 CI 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13.0

20.9
15.8

_111'"

BElA .15 (\.Do. MlIIhIl

.. ..,.
~.
"'.1

21.7

0
0
0

I---+---I---+------_~f..:..:------'-'--I---------~f__---_I--+-_+
:

"" TOT. RTU1t11CWD1

1 yr.
3yr.
5 yr.

.::l."=_
-31.4
14.8
-21.9
.....1.8

30.0
104.8

D3.0S
Ralcorp H~dings was inrorporatod on
Jan. 19, 1994, as a subsidiary cf the Ral,US
ston Punna Group (RPG). The firm was
US
spun oft from ~s parent on Mardi 31, 1994,
~
iii
with sI1areholdetSracei~ng one share of the, -....:..:-....:.+....:..:.:...-....:..:::.+-.-;;....~,;.;.j_;;.;;.......:..:~-~+__;;+~;+....,;:i_h:_.;;,~~~~_+_;;:_l
n.... enlily for each thnle RPG sha... r
owned. 3J,878,OOO shares were issued for
,us
the new rompany, at a ptice of $15.00 each.
The branded cereal and snack lines Yl9re
sold on Jan. 31, 1997, and the remaining
businesses were spun 01110shareholders.

..

..'"

Pension Ulbllty

eo.--. Stocll
at

None

29,859,907 shs.

aI Bl1D1OO

IIARKETCAP: $425 m1IHon (Small Cap)

81tl.6

902.8

..

..

10.1%

..

..

"'1

13.n. 14.6'
30..
"'1

..
..

..
..

382
37.6%

4.4'

39.0'
5.~
54.8

..
..
.

..
.
-.

.
..
.

30.3
414.4
10.31

--

..

..

10n
38.0% 29.0% 302%
10.91 38.~
29.01 302'

CURRENTpasrrtOH

1.

flit

ft.WOO

ca~lLl

12.3
45.2

1.9
59.9

.9
58.0

8~~
12t:O

7~:~
145.4

"""T53.5

50.7

53.4

40.3

_-

__

Re<2ivablf:s
~~
(Avg Cst)
CurrenlAssBts
Acd5 PlIIyab!e
Debt Due

-.

S:l

51.9

981.0

53.6
39.0%

46-'

1021.4
12.3'

".4

41.1
38.6%

32.4
11.0%
5.41,;
4.6'
3,2%
11.6
102.9
90.6
389.4 395.4 316.6
1411
162.4 107.4
11.:1, 11.0% 9.5"

1100 ~(s
.. ) A
118%
O-d..IlIIi_.
24.4
181
23.1
1L~
ss........ riCIn (!till
10.8
32.0
36.4
38.0
U. NltProltllnll\
38.31
38.1% 31.6% 31.~
37.171 IncorHTuRill
2.0"
5.5% 5.1'4
4.1"1 10 NII.ProftIbrlJln
64.9
45.6
68.3
IIJ./J
I5.D Warkklg tip, ($nIIIZ)
..
42.8
Z5lJ
156 long.r_OIbI(SrII)
286.1
301.3
324.1
!50
3S5 Sin.
3.8% 10.4% 10.1%
1.~
7.5% Rn.nOllTlDIt-p'1
'.8% 10.4% 111% f1.ll"
R........... E_
3.81
10A% 11.2" fUI
11.5%R.t.rMd IDConl Eq

III
iii AI Dff'a'i IDHIt Prof
534.1
6.5%

BUSINESS: Ralcorp Holdings consis1s d: RaISon FOOds (46% d


'99 sales), a producer of priYate-liillb81bf&Ilcfast cerealS; Brwmer
(21%), oil fTl.lker at priyille-label aackers and 1:CIOWs; Nut:mcter
(20~), .. prndUCIlII"
of priwa\!HIbei lIod value-bland .naet nuts;
Marti! GilBl (7%J, f1I;Inufad1nr d lTlIyonnIIiM and laDd dressngs. Also owns 21.8% equily mile iI VII RIlS'ris (cIivIsted rnap-.

---#f ~

~thCOArpgriHbohJindgsIPlansto JnaI"Oinforces
Wl.
ran 5 nternatio
. a lea dANNUAL
RATES Pal
Put Esfd 'U'II ing producer and marketer of a variety of
of~{pl""'1)
lCIYI1
5Yrt.
tD'n-'15
Sill_
_.
-8.5%
22.0S
an1mal feeds. with annual revenues of ap"Cash Flaw"
-- -12.0%
17.0"
proximately $1.2 billlon. (Both companies
Eamilgs
-- -12.5% 16.0"
were once part. of Ralston Purina.
with
=~:ue
:: 18.5% 11.S'tl
Ralcorp
spirmlng
off in 1994
and
,;_,
SAW Ill.)
,..
Agrtbrands spinning off In 1998). Under
",u
.., ~QlWlTERL.31 J Iso' .~so Fi.cal tenns of the "merger of equals" transacE
""'" _.
un. .......
v.,. tion. Ralcorp stockholders would receive
1997 121.8 126.9 140.7 144.7 534.1 one share of the new holding company for
1991 137.2 147.1 143.3 155.3 582.9 each Ralcorp share held. In addition,
1991 154.9 150.3 154.4 177.0 636.6 AgrIbrands shareholders would get three
_
21M 9 173.2 172.1 259.0
1ID9.2
2001 117:5 Z7Z.5 m.5
ZlZ.5 11110 shares of the new company in exchange for
Aacal
EARlMGSPRSHAREAli
Ful
each Agribrands share held. Alternatively,
l: Dlc.31 II1II'.31 JUII.3D Slp.3D AKa! shareholders may choose to receive SI5 in
~~+~"....'~~~::-~~+y!!.~,~ cash for eachRalcorp share or S39 in cash
t997 d.03 .15
.09 .12
.33 for each Agribrands share. Pending ap1.
.14
.32
.40
.11
.97 proval from RAH
and Agr:Ibrands share1999 .20 .34 .38 .23 1.15 holders, and other condiUons, the transac1.24 tiDn Is slated for oompletion early next
,.
UD year. (Our estimates and projections will
r
QUARTERl.YDMlENDSPAlJC
full
reflect the merger at that time.) The two
1198 "lr.31 JudD Sep.30 DIe.3t v.... comparues would continue to opernte sepa..
~~
~:
:~
-rately, with no major restn.1cturlngs
tlt7
.05
.05 anticipated.
~:
~:
::
::
::
::
We believe
the consolidation
will
zaoo ..
..
_.
prove quite beneficia) for Ralcorp in
=ntLiab.

--.'1

=.c...... ~ .: .: ~

1013.4
15.0%

1'1'~1---3OI'.

582.9
10.2%

636.6
12.3%

809.2

11~

,1.5"

TJO,{lO.05).
__
....... slt8nl
"".......
(el
Special one-ti'nll
$0.05.
diY. (I'IIIaIBd
10 spirlOfl) was paid 1/3MI7.
(0) Ind. intangibles. In "99: $100.7 ma,

510

37.es
III
1511
.,
41S
1.51
fU"
11.es
NI

ty ri ski f8SOI1 ops., 119n. DiYes1Bdbrand~ baby food oplDtion,


91'98.Bf2nded anal and snack busi'lesses sold, 1191.Has z.soo
&rIlpkJyees; 15,517 shimholdeB. OffsJdirs. OIIIn3.6% at amnon;
ShapW Capitll Miln~t,~o"
(12199~.
CEO & PnIs.:
Joe R. Ali;hell!Uo. Inc.:
.
.: saG M8rtl!II
,Sl louis, MO
63101. Tel: 314-l1n-7aoo.

Internet: www.rablrp.am.

the coming
years. FRAHor
a wistartth the
d
rovId
merger Woull
p
e
even~
greater finandal resources to bolster Its already strong position in the domestic
private-label food business
(a major factor
behind the deal). Moreover. It should sig~
nl6cantly increase Ralcorp's
geographic
exposure. as AgrJbrands has operations In
16
countries.
In addidon. Agribrands'
animal feed business would greatly enhance Ralcorp's product diversification.
LasLly, assuming that RalCOlll
Is the ac~
qulrlng rompany in the transaction and
that aU shareholders
select the equlty optlon (both will be determined. at a later
date). we estimate that Agribrands would
add roughly SO.10 a share to RAH"s bottom line in the first year after closing and
be increasingly more accreUve to earnings
thereafter.
These shares are unranked for nmeliness, since events surrounding Ralcorp's,
merger with Agribrands.
rather than eamings. will likely govern the stock prlce for a
whUe. We think Ralcorp
shareholders
should vote In favor of the deal, for the
reasons discussed above.
Frederick L. Harris. ill November 10, 2000

13...........
~~P SIDck'.
......
(E)
In mls.
Pricef ...'''''.......
StablllJ
{F} Spun al'I branded bM:I hill 1191. Fiscal 'W
PrIeI: Growth hnilltMlcl
datil ~ bma, dOflSn' ilcI.blanded food DPL Earnings PrMlic1ab11lJ
f8CUl1WIIrIiII a alUira h'InI !IIIIla5 bIIitwIIlD tit miIIR .. is ~
~
~
rllIlJ UIIL
TH[ PWl.JSI.R IS HOT R[~ElOll
Ntt [RI!ORS OR lltoI5SKlNS HlRW. Th5ptii:ai1n
Ii sR::Iy'" ~
_~
SUmII_. No pII'I
I
I
I "
: II:
rll..,
be ~
*-I ......... i1...,~
~
tI" dlB bill. II U5elIb ,...,,_-..,..,
pW-..
,......
~
Dr...-n

B DikIled egs. Prinary egs. bIlbe '91. Ex


ckJdeI non.recumg
riiS
(bsses): 1J5,
(SO.41t, '96, ($2.40); '9 , $15.62; '98, $0.35:
CI 2OllO.-..e Lft PItiIstnl. Int. Alrqu
RSM'fIll.

1.

Ztl.O%
51IJI

B
55
NNF
25
I I '

IFPRICE 16
REGALBELOIT CORP,ASE.RBC
t
CEHT

lIIIE\MSS

4-.. ....

SAFElY

3NN11b

T[Cffl/ICA!.

4-..1l'l,,"

JCl'A

........

...

Pritt

45
30

GIll

Am'TmaJ

':u

~d

RftIm

(iJao'l
+90%

7A
'.4

ni:*s

.~
9.3

"

15.5
11.3

," ''''.j.

23.1

32.8
18.0

22A
15.5

12.1

33.3
17.5

... -

. ...

."

......

..

13.5%

..

"CBSh Flow"

13.0%

ell-

_ndar

.1197

l.

1919

lOO1

....,

ea"

.....
1997
1191
1199

lOO1
CaJ.

1191
1197
1191
1199

llUARTERl' SAlfS {I III

Full

Ir.31 Jun.31 SlD.30 [)tc.31


70.6 '43.6 138.4 134."
137.B 139.0 138.0 128.7
127.2 137.1 142.3
142.6 143.4 136.5
185
1.
185
liIG
EARNlIIGS PER 5HARE ..
.. .31 Jun.30 Stp.30 Doc.31
.80
."II
.52
.48
.49
.49
.58
.49
.43
.46

YHr
487.
5415
544.B
5!J5
75IJ

!~
....

....

.46
.016
.40
.29
.ss
.3D
.45
.5IJ
llUARIERl.Y ONIlENOSPAIDC
.. .31
.10
.12
.12
.12
.12

Ju,.
.12
.12
.12
.12
.12

Il........'..,..._.
B Next Y'nilg!l

CI ZlIIO. ~
lrl~~
'fHf I'UBU$lI[R[SPIlT RI
" ...., tie ~
..

St,.
.12
.12
.12
.12
.12

Do<.31
.12
.12
.12
.12
.12

1.67
2.02
1.60

1.59
!.III
Full

YH'

....
....

.48
.48

A broad-based weakness at both business segments and spanning most customer markets is taking a toU on HegalBeloit"s profits. Thlrd-quarter sales
at the Mechanical and the Electrical
Groups dropped aboul 4% and 3%. respect1vely, amid a pen.rastve sluggishness in
numerous IndU5lr1es. including agricullure, transportation. rnartne, consttuetion
equipment. industrial machinery and. in
the case of the Electrical Group, the market for heating, ventUatJng. and aircondJUonlng equipment. And due to dsmg
raw-materials, energy. and labor casts.
particularly with respect 10 the Meehan!caI Group. the operatl"8 margin decUned
by nearly a percentage point in this year's
first nine months. Moreover. things will
likely get worse before they get better. For
example.
Regal-BeloU's early
rourthquarter backlog and order rate are below
the third-quarter levels. Additionally, two
large customers have reduced orders due
to inventory adjustments. Add to the mix a
delayed government contract and cantinued hJgh fuel costs, and the December peMod earnings (as weU as the March 2001
quarter, most l1kely) probably will be well

.l~ ....

d__
.~bouI Jan. 2\lI>.
u-dn sboul Dee..
. Diidtnd!l ~
bIB mi:l-Jan., Apr . JuI., oct.

mid-Jiln.

mi

cr

Full

YH'

AI
rt5B'IIId. F'l1l111lT1111!ri1l il. ~
InIrft _
SIllf QRNfYERRORSQROMISSIONSHER['t
T~~i5=
hIBIIIiaed .. .., IJI*d. ~
cr CIhB" bill. cr 1M! b ~

15.4

.~......
".7

beIrIed

cr

(Ollnm ......

wile ....
W il. pvri3ed
~_,lIt111w,

",..,

1Il.'"

11.9
.66
22\

252

2001
CYAl.UE LIlE PUB,IIC. 03-45
3170 SoJoo poo-Ih
41.85
~'O Cash Row" per iii
1. ~pII'lh
~0Il
".
.41 D1v'lia Dld'd pw th C
.II
1... Clll' ....... Opoo-Ill
US
1<.55 B.........
poo-Ih
n ...
n.l9
......0"
71.>
''11 Ann' PIt:_
RMItivI PIERdo
.IS
;,;;; ~ AV8
Ann' [WI! Y'lIkI
I.R

.70

......:: ...--

..

""
&5"

7'"
16.51

1=."::.....
I""I)

n.. D__

38.5
Ill.OS
U\
.IlII
370
305
Ull
13.OS

U"

H41 ""'" I$niIIl


IrK:oI-. Tu RIll
Not"""'M.pn
W-O Cap' I$noilll

~~:::""
6hr.

lmiIiI~'

RtUn all 1ot11Clp'


Rnm. on Shr. EClUih
RI1ainad to COlI Eq

M M DW'ctI to Nft Prof

".

19.""

4U
ft.
'0.""
7,4%

...,

270

"'

fI.Ill
lUll
fl.Ill

Zfll

eBctric ll'lCIkln & g&I&"Itcn b UII il I8YeIiII ndus. Acquired


Leeson EIedri:, 9/00. '99 depree. rate: 8.6%. Employs 4,630. Has
1,229 dhldB. Offs. & dn. 0Mr 5.5" at oorrmotI; I.aza'd Fnns,
9.6'-; MlIShaI & I1sley Corp., 8.3'- (MJO Proxy~ Chaman, CEO,
and Pn!s.: James L. PaclciiJrd.Inc.: WI. Add.: 200 Sta1IISL, BebI,

WI 53511-6254. Tel: 6IJB-364.38OO.lniIrnlIt:rBgal-betllcan.

below the prior-year levels.


A recent acquisition
augurs weD for
long-tenn
profits. but a large jwnp In
interest
expense won't be immediateIy offset. R-B's late-September purchase
of Leeson Electric. which makes electric
motors. increases its sales base by 30%.
but the deal nearly tripled the company"s
debt load. Annual cost and revenue
synergies. though. should exceed $12 million within three years. By then, we expect
Leeson to add $0.20 a year to share net.
We do not favor untimely Regal-Beloit
stock at the tresent
time. Operating
conditions caul well remain sluggish for
several quarters to romeo possibly renderlng OW" reduced 2001 earnings estimate
overly opUmistic. Although the Leeson
deal should modestly help next year's
share net, the company continues to operate at a distinct disadvantage vis-a-vis Its
larger competitors. And even if industrial
production ~malns strong (we expect it
wilO. shareholders may continue to be
hurt by tnstltutlons' thirst for Uquidity in
a stock and, therefore. their preference for
o~
larger-capitalized issues .
Todd
Schwartzman
November 3. 2000
.pOD.

:'10

~
"
UIcI.
ciI~"I!mIIII5e. JlIfI
." pi-.! cr tIi!ldICriI: fdIbli:n. ~
II' poU;l
....

97.6

2U5
2.Ill
1.59
.'0
.15
13.15
"'.0Il

543.5 ....B
595
19.0% 17.5% 1''''
22.0
23.1
15.5
36.1
43.0
!15
39.B\ 4Q.1%
38.6\
7n\
R
7.9'>
117.3 131.4
1462
1662
39IJ
224~
252.B
275
12.51 10.71
19.1% 15.1% 12.0"
14.7% 11.1%
261
3lIll
23'

.. .-

2S.9S
2.91
1.60
.48
.54
12.04

132
.89
I.B\

"""

Est'd '117'11

.183

3~.

,... ,...

Pltst
Put
..,.
t.,.n.
"
...
SaIoo
18.5"
45"
15.5% 20.0%
9.0"
13.5% 20.0"
8.""
5~='
9~'" 12.0%
..""
8ool<V ......
18.0%
12""

,,-.

.....
'~.

.
25.99
3.11
2.02
.48
.71
10.74

... r-

DD

" Tot. RfTlRII ..

.".,

...

ANNUAL
,,_
.. RATES
"'I

......

'.0

...,

"
20

r
.

50
40
32

"12

1991 1992
1989
1990
1993
1994
1995 ~ooo
1987
1988
1984 1985
1986
B.33
8.31
9E!
10.18 11M
14.47 13.64
23.'lB
7.43
7.52
3.84
4.42
5B3
18.11
.76
.73
.72
.so Jl 1.13 1.57 2.10 2.06 HI
.46
.60
1.96
.39
.58
.62
~ 29
A7
.71
1.13
1.60
1.67
1.87
.34
.43
1.'lB
24
24
26
26
26
26
.30
.39
.'0
.48
.13
.13
.15
.20
56
~7
~7
.41
.77
.,2
.29
20
32
.B7
54
.1B
.17
3.89
3J5
4.04
4.12
4.55
6.84
7.75
9.09
1.66
3.35
2.~
723
2.42
'.40
",
",
"'.54
"'.11J
1.
1
17.
",.n
"",
"'.1
"'.J:> "'."
13.6
14.1
23.9
12.0
12.1
14.0
13.0
17.9
10.5
2.0
12.7
10.
13.3
15'
1m
1.13
1.07
.97
1~
.90
.79
.70
.76
Jl
1.03
.69
.19
.74
2.3\
3.0\
3.B\
4.0\
2.4\
22\
2.3\
2.5\
1.8\
19.8%
4.5%
3.5\
2.B\
3.'\
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE as ofll3QlOCl
1882
152.2
199J
219.
242.7 295.9 2Bl~ 487.0
lotll Debl $397.0 miil. Due 11'15Y~$140.0mil.
13.0%
9.41
11.9\ 15.4% 19.8% 21.6\ 21.9'11 19.'%
LT1m.. $23.0 mill.
LT Dtbt $397.0 mil.
4n
4.5
9.0
7.0
BB
102
10.6
lB.
(.. ", .. c.pO
10.7
23.1
36.9
5~
9.5
32.B
32~
loC."
37.7% 38.4' 31.91 39~\
39.4\ 362\
37.7\ 39.6\
P.nsion U_b1itJ $39.9 milan in '99 'IS. $40.111
3.B\
4.7\
B.5\
9.5\
11.1% 11.5%
B.ll%
6.4"
58.7
49.0
53.4
492
55.1
70.4
92.6 100.7
PId Stock None
16.B
13.8
34.4
19.6
16.6
2.9
22 192.3
80.0
61J
92..B 110.6 135.
160.0
189.4
83.9
Cammon Stock 21,000,000 shs.
(41"'ctCaP"Q
8J\ f3.5%
11.9\
6.51
H.SI
18.5' 23J\ 20.0\
13.4% BJ\
11.J11, 15.5% 20.9\ 242\
MARKET CAP: $325 million (Small Cap)
20.2% 20.5\
6.8%
.3\
5.0% 9J\
IJ3Q/OCI
18.6% 141% 15.3%
CURRENT POSrTlON
'111.1.)
491
951
371
SOl
26\
231
19lI
26\
13.3
1.7
3.S
eo"'
......
104.3 BUSIlIESS: Regal-8ebR CmpcntD'1 manufllC11ns rrmchani:31
Receivables
69.4
76.4
147.5 and elBch:al products. The Med1aniwll Group IIIlIUls gBiII" tD'8II
104.0
9U
~(UFO)
15.9
11~
'62
S}'S&lmI; IrrI1SlrlisstJns; lIIilfMIl va ...... IJO281.0 tOl' 1lIItais~ling
198.3
Cufl'8nt ASSIIlIs
175.0
tuatn fer iqui:f and gas-lkJw.awTtn:lI synms, and nwN hnI3!l.7
Aoc1s Plylbio
26.4
23 .
- - mis5lOnS for inboartl mea lxIats. 'Ttwt EI8dJicII Group, whdl
38.5
Olhor
34 .
56.' arou tom !he Marth '117 acqU1S. 01 Maridhon EIedri::, prndlOlS
"""66.
CUfI'8nt l.i.ab.
"""""5M

On,."""

- - - -- -- - --

10

or
1111111.,1/

"... ...

2003 2004 200.


eo
eo

--

"

.1,1'

Targeot Price Range

21.6
15.3

Z5.6
15.6

......,..t1'!I'II'

.. '1" '-/. .' ..

4.

DIV'D
111 (T'Modi."
.... IlJ!':~r'M
3.0%
PfRATIO 0 82 YlD

'rssiln

.. "".. I~""

'''"

13.3

10.9

31"
19%

InI:lder DKilllon.
DJF.A.JJA
1
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 , 1. 11 ..
o 000 0 0 000
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
lna.tltutlolIiiIl Decialons
",.
... 11
Percent
.. ..,
.41
32
aha'
::::.,
140~
'3942 14612

=-

.A
4 .

L.EGENDS
8.6 I (J:15Il fbwOp ~
...
R~Pli:e~~
]_-2 ~
MIl
l-hx-2 ~
~
2-b'-1 spl M4

.1!'! (1.Dll ... INltel)

200HS PROJE~S

High:

low:

PlRATIO

Can"~rtee' .....
doI ""''''''''
S1ock'
S'labllty
PraGrowtb~
Earnings Ptwdlc1llblRty

8
70

60

65

IRECoo

ROGERS CORP. NYSEROG

Nil

IPR~E

7.2
3.2

2.'

12.8
e.1

15.8
10.9

14.5
10.0

20.6
11.8

Tarv-t Price Range


2003 2004 2005

39.5
18.0

....

'00
80

..,

I.

,.'

~..,

0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0

~J~~g~~g~

InstiluUoNlI

1112.
27

202M
29

LTlnterest $.6 miD.

(LT inIerBst aamed: 18.31:; 1Dta1111l!f1!st


COWlIilge: 18.OX)
(7% rA CaP')

Pen,lon 1I1b1l1ty Nona


Pfd Stod None
(93% ofCap'~

IIARKETCAP: 5475 million (Smlll Clp)


CURRENTP05TTION 168
19951

ca~~k

Receivables
~ntDry (UFO)
Currem Assets
Acds Payable
Debt DuB

=m

10.0

9.8
32..8
22.8

33.9

~3

--=;n

~
~;~

Uab.

712/00

'4.9

.6

_.

~~

~:~

10.8
43.4
29.3

e:l
13.1

__

~~

. .

. .... ,

1.11
H6

12."
26<
2.00
.6l
190.3
8.3%
111
2J
32.5'
111
20J
21.5
54.9
4.8%
'.2\
3.6'
161

.73
1.54

.67
2.16

.
.
5%

NM'
NMF

'.8
.18
..

1;,,, 1;,,,, "..

182.04 172.04 1231


7.'% 7.0% 122%
11.1
10.9
6.7
.2
2
6.7
..
.
.7,
NMF .1% 5.411
20.6 225
13.1
26.3 241
14.2
52..0 19.1 21.9
1.8% 2.11 11.51
NMF
.9\ 23.9\
NMF
AI
23.9'"
NMF

531

.33
3.20

...W

.62
411
1421

.43
521

~c:ue(plr1t11

Put

Put

1t~~
5.5%

Est'd'l7'111

.....

11.7
.71
..

18J
1.02
..

135
!8
..

133.9
1H%
6.1
10.1
5.41
1.61
2 .7
6.7
45.1

140.3
13.'%
5.1
13.1
15.~
9.3'
31.'
41
60.1
2111

1.1.5

13.8%
5.8
13.9
21.01
9.9%
38.1
3.6
n1
21.01
17.81
228\
21.8\
16.1%
22.51 21.8'" 18.1'"

189.7 216.6 241.8


14.2% 13.0% 14.0%
6.6
8.4
10.4
16.8
13.8
18.6
25.01 28.01 28.01
8.71
6.41
1.51
".8
.20
358
13.1
13.1
9.7
9U
110.2 116.4
15.71 11.61 15.4'
17.8% 1~8% 18.0%
17.5'" 12.5" 16.0%

..

9.5%

15.0"

j..'::::'::;::;"'=;:::;"';:::::=::--"'::;:=-1
58.3
64.8
63.6
7Q.I

:: ~.:

11(81

17.'"
17.ft

Ni

i_

DIprtddonI .... )
NolProltIInRl)

IIIccntTuRN
.... Prolllqil
W_,Cop1(ln1l)
Long.TIr1lI~JSr")

Shr.~ISnilI
16.n
RIbn..,
TCJIIICIp'
110% R..... "'Shr.E;;;",
1U" Rltllnedto ten Eq

iii AlDtY'dIIoNIIPr'Clf

'*

lUll
1U
31..
21."
U%

I'"
1.0
250
1$.0"
116%
15.1%
HI

~~~~v~~es~f~~~~J~~~~
lJle first half of 2000, combined sales ex-

made by eight

~::d~~~~;

~~n~e~o~:'~i:h~t
challenged Rogers' vishm of becoming a
$500 mlllJon-a-year company by 2003, we
now find this goal feasible on a combined
sales basis. Indeed, the difference between
reported and combined sales is widening
with the Durel electroluminescent lamp
joint venture's increased capadty, to be
augmented by the construction of a 75,000
square foot addition that will be completed
by the first quarter of 2001.

~~to~e~i~:sa!~r:~~ ~:r::r5~~:="~S:it~A=-~
~::=

support its growing


QUARTERLY
OlVOENDS
PAID
(CI
FilII Fiftylflfty
ventures
are becoming in.ndl:r IIIr.31 Jun.30Sep.30Dee.31 V.r creasingly
important.
It may be noted
that this growing company's sales are
~:
NO~~I~NDS
lower than they were 12 months earlier.
1191
That anomaly reflects a shift in dlstribu20DD
tion of a specialty flexible circuit board

1.

16.5%

SIta(W)

1_

ZU
1.15
HI

=::flt~:e~co~~~~~~~~
play. Such down-converters,

51.3 53.6
59.1
6$.1
7rJ.D

::l ~

.-

25&1
ae
II,..
'Ull
11.1
15.D
2<1
27.1
2f.D% .2UI
fA
US
SU
15..
5.1
1.1
141
17'

UO
1U5

laminate, which is now sold through a


Rogers Joint venture. Such sales are not
included in reported sales and, in order to
better show the company's growth, we will
henceforth
footnote combined sales, in-

61.1
eo.D
7ll.D

eal-

'l7.8

Rogers has estabHshed a significant


in Taiwan. The company has
captured more than 90% of that market
for high frequency circuit materials used
in the manufacture of the devices that

216.6 ance in high humidity environments. In


247.8 another undertaking, Rogers and privately
25D
owned Chang Chun Plastics Company (of
ZIO
Taiwan) fanned a 50150 joint venture to
I~
lar.p=~~e~:
~e
~:
manufacture and distribute Rogers flexible
drcuJt laminates, with production sched1197 .26
.'IT
.28 .24 1.05 uled to begin in the second quarter of
1998
.28 .17
.17
.25
.87 2001. Elsewhere in the Far East, Rogers
1199 .30 .28 .29 .32 1.19 has opened a new sales and marketing of-

=~

53.4
62.8
61.3
7U

15.4
25.2

trDk.minescenl ~).
RIO: 4.4% dillies.
1999depr. ni:a: 8.5%.
Has 1,197.mpkJyees, ',109 shlntl1okkn. ~
own
7.1% of slI:d.; W8S1p::lr1Asset .... nagemenI. 15.5"'; Lon:I Abbett,
14.7%; Kam. I~nts,
5.3"; (:WO fJ'OXY). Pnsident & CEO:
W. BoomII'.Inc..: M.us. AdG'".: One Technology Drive, Ragen. CT
06263-0188. Tel.: 860-n4-9805. IrrtamBI: WWW.rogerKOrp.Ulm.

Iwl~~:'s;'~~:-~.
:: ~~:a::::
~~~e&~~~~xpeU:~v;na~
44.3 .45.8 47.8 51.8 189.7 difficult to process, or had poor perfonn-

~r
1117
1998
1999
.,2000

115.5
83.1
229.9

8
8

BUSINESS: Rogers CorporaIxln mates poIyI'W products (53% of


1999 sales, 61'" ci openting prcN:) thill i1ckJde a WIde varisty d
pBstI: maBials and canponants, and ell!!lcboni: products (47%,
39"').~I
facIoriIs i1 Arizonir, ConnecKut. and 8elgiLm.
SakI Fluibll!llnlBrmnnedions
Div. 111993. o.n.. SO" d Rogan
INOAC (JapanelB highperbmBnce eliilslonwl) and DlI'8I (eIeo-

~~~1:

5J~%

5~ ~::~
::~::!

"CashFIow"

1yr.
3 yr.
Syr.

1.18
1.90
.93
W
US IC'P1_,~lih6.26
1.24
7.94 U5
U.JJ look YIIuI pi!' III
"...."182.
14.86 ,~'"
,~'" IC.......
,III'
18.6
18.1
13..........
_ A'1lM,'IPIERdo
.96
...
.71
:: ~
R_
PIERdo

A'1lM,11l1Y"_

1-=:::::==':=-~---'=---'-=::c.,==:::c-1 presence
ANNUAL RATES

. .

..
.21

2%

:",.
.

--= _

101. RrT\AII MIO

....

.,JI"

Percent 1.0
5har" '.0
mded
1.0

CAPITALSTRUCTURE.'of7~
Total 0.111S9.7miL
Due In 5 VI'S$9.7 mil.

CCIl'lIlIOn Stoc:It 14,954,239SM.

12

1,' III

II~

;~I~
~
~
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
13.54 1428
11.n
10..59 10.84
12.18
.88
1.00
..
.86
.91
1.00
,08
.13
.54
.07
.20
.28
.03
.03
.03
.03
.oJ
.03
1.26
.93
.98
HN!
.n
.98
4.43
4.55
3.62 3.75 4.03 4.47
12.
11.70 11.83
"..
11j3
1~8
915
262
20.8
7'.8
1.19
7.43
1.7B
1.38
8.63
.8%
.4%
.5%
.6%
.5%

LTDebt $9.7 mil.

,.

20

.I'

l~]L

Decillions

401111
22

.. ..,

32
2.

,.1,,,,1

IrID~FIIA.JJ

23.4
10.3

..
Insider Decisions

23.3
12.9

ings comparisons,
the share price has
slipped from $38 since our July report, and.
the rank. is a notch lower than before. But,
the lower price has boosted appreciation
potential, though it's still below median.
Lucien Virgile
October20. 2000

(AI Canbirl!lcl sa_, IKiIdng SO% rI un~


Primary earJ1ng!l tmxJgh 1996: dilded
(el Dividend disccnIiluad. Last paymenI: madI~~omP.ny" Fln.lndlll ....
c:onsoi::lilla:l joint venllJlI!S,rA $285.0 ITiIon iI thlna1l8l'. Nex1 earn.
nrport due nid
Mtbruar)' 12. 1992.
Stoct'l Price StabIIlJ
'111, $245.3 miion iI '98, $220.9 milion in VI. October. ExWd8!l norncuning ch~:
"90,
(Olin milion!l, 8d;Ist8d'" met Ipilts.
Prb Grvwth ~
$039; ~1,$0.17;'92, 52.66.
.
.... .... P.... _
ZlDlI, VIm lr1e 1'\lbII5IIiIg. __ AI ntb reer'ftd. FllIUII rrMeriaI is c:I:Uined rr- _
lJIieoIed III be- miItIle MIll' is jl"oriIIed -..u ~
d -.y u.d.
TliE PUBUStERISMlT RESPONSIlLElORAMY ERRORS OR OMlSSIONSHEREIi. TlBpaicai:rl i5~b
~"'.fIOl'I<GITIIWtiIL
irl~use.No ~

I
I "
d I n-r be ~:IIIInIf
... .....mIed .. ~~
~
... 1IlhlI' ...... II" LMd IDr IftII!OIirIJ 1IIl' .......
~
F8'*d lIIl' ......
pt**I. ~
IIIl' poU:L

gth

B+
70

70
60
: II:

I I'

ROHM AND HAAS NYSE-ROH


'2.,
HIgh:

4 ..... ,"'"'"
WID
3 _,,""'"
TECHNICAL
4 _" ""'"
ITA .9~ (I.DO- MllUt)

TIIElJIIESS

2OO~

l'%'

GaIn

''''''

10.3

).far1'"

9I9B

OC";,':.

i1dl:*s

40

22.8

15.8

17.8

21.6
16.5

27~
18.3

... ..

. ,I" 'II
.

..

,
.111'

... ..
..

"

CuIT8nt. AsS8t5

oe..

Due

... ,...

711.0
421.0
133.0
1287.0

053.0
50.0
875.0

1370.0
899.0
171.0
2497:0
1407.0
931.0
112.0

.. ..

....

..

1504.0
970.0
217.0
2755.0

14n.o
58S.0
354.0

2396.0

"_11-"'1

Put

Put

...,'1

"13-,,

'.<Ill
' '<Ill

~%

..-

Est'd '97.'.

s.,.

.....,

egs. A~. ~
Ihrv '96.
.
net nornomng gallS (bSSBs): "85, 7,
'9~.25); '93, IS1,}; "96,
tl8, 25;;:
, (82j); '00, Q1, 5,

.~9Ji:1,36;
I

- --

40

I
1111'

'"24
20

....

....

....

'JIo TOT. RETURN 111Ol1

"'

8
8

f--,yr. ~
-::
r-- 31'. -1.5 19.7
r-- 5 yr. 57.4 83.4 ~
1997
1998
21.90
2UO
3.65
3.91
2.04
2.10
.63
.70
1.39
1.37
9.15
9.88
1
161.59
14.4
15.0
.83
.78
2.1%
2.1%
3999.0 3720n
22A%
24.'%
279.0
216.0
394.0
395.0
32.9% 37.5%
106%
95%
547n 412.0
509.0
409.0
1797.0 1561.0
18.1%
205%
21.9% 25.3%
16.3%

31%

BUSINESS: Rotm and Hila. CornlEny IS specially clBnal prodUC* specializD;l 11 aayEs IIK:hnoklilY. Proclucts: 81T1JIs:Onstr
pairts, lDlti1gs and Bdhnives; plasl.ic addm.; IHJYIi: plastics;
fungicQes; ~;
bix:i:Ies; kx1 uchBnge resils and eIecboni:
millrnlls. Merged dl Morton l,*mstDnal in '99. '99 FCftign (0lIlIide of North AITBl:a) sMs, 45% d .. 1 Research & o.telop-

181%

32%

1999
2000
2001
,ua
28.16
nla
<.54
W
4.5Ii
2.09
1.75
215
.74
.a2
.7'
1.70
1.15
2115
la.33
'US
1"'
12/l.l//I 1216l//1
18.0
1.04
~
2.0%

,..."

5339.0
24.4%

451.0
410.0
34.6%
1.7%
d13.0
3122.0
3475.0
1.1%

e VALlIEUtiE PIIl.IIC.
SIIos""Ih
"Cuh flow" "" Ih
EIminsI' pit III /Ii
Dlv'dl DKt'd pIf sh
C'll'll;pond~1 "" Ih
Book VllIIt pIf III C

....,.:~-

--

19.J%
~5

C......

1"1 Ann' PIE ....

RItltiwPJ1:Rdo
Avg Ann' DiY'd Y111d
1150 SIIos(s..)
20.51 O_gM_
51 Ooproci_IInWj
Not Pn>ftt (!mill
InCDIIIt Tu RIte
NIlProftt .....
6R
4411 W_g l:op11lnoil)
UlJJ long-T""
001< (\noli)
Sh,. Eqodty (\noli)

~.

-17%

,."

,...

7.#%

lQ.J%

34%

Ml

..""

'''''

RItln

on lobi

D3-45
41.11
U5
JJll
M

U5
X.3Q

"" ".""

9.n

11.8%
7.1%

Cap'

Shr. Equtty
12-"" R.......
7.51 RNined to Com Eq
~ All DWIIs to NIl Prof

,$.a

I'"

'""
....

Z2.5'il
515

om

".""
lJl'

1116
,.."

ms

,.""

13.'"
,a.#%
2711

ment, 5.5% of 1999 sales. 1999 depr.c:illIion laB: 6.2%. Has aboul
11.300 1rtIpk))'88S. 4,352 slrJekholdfn Haas fanily coniols 3'%
d aJI'T1IIIJI'I stock; ESOP, 10.4% (WJ ~~
Chilm.n
& CEO:
Raj l. Gupta. President: J. Michael Fil:z:pan:k. Inc..: DE. Adchss:
100 IndepeNlence Mal West, Phi~iB,
PA 19106-2399. llllBphone: 21S-5923OOQ. Inlen1clt:: www.rohmhaasmrn.

the Asia-Paclnc region, where sales rose


nearly 50% over last year. We expect
demand In the printed wirlng board Indus
try, semiconductor packaging. and Industrial finishing Industries to be strong
through 2001, which should allow the <!IvIslon to maintain Its double-dIgit growth.
Further stratef.c acquisitions will likel)'
enhance the E ectronic Materials sector s
reach and profitability.
Cost-cuttmg
plans are ahead of sched.
ute. TIlrough integration synergies real!zed from the Morton International acqufsltion, management achieved Its goal of
lowerin~ expenses $300 millIon a quarter
ahead 0 plan .
We expect untimeJy Room and Haas
shares to lag the year..mead
market.
At this juncture. the company's perlonnance over the next year is highly linked to
elements outside Its control. The s10w1n9
U.S. economy. the continuation of lofty 0
and gas prices. and any fW1:her weakness
In the euro could all have a dampening effeet on earnings. Similarly, the stock's 3to 5-year outlook is unattractive. Investors
should look for better stock selections.
Edward Plank
December 22, 2000

Q2,.f:!).lnd.
net unusual c:harge::&9, 3: '90, Jun .. Se~.,and Dec. IC) Ind. intIl1!JIbl8s .. 99:
6:
, 8j. Nul egs. I1Iport dllll mid-Feb. (B)
$4482 mil: $23.21/Shant.
ID) In mil., i1c1jLJSll!ld
Nld. div'd meeIing ~~
Feb. 4th. Goes ex
for .pi. (EJ <Jb:I'J -'lings
do not.SLm kl tDtIl
abotrt Feb. 15a1. ONd pmnt. d*,;
111d Mar., dUll to cI1ange ~ shinS outstandl'lg.
o 2m Yale liIe ~
~
mer'ftId. F....
__
is otUned .... IIIUIreJI bIRwd lei lie r-.bIe n is ~
1I&IaIl _nliIl5 d IllY Uld.
THEPU5USK:R IS NOTRE
[ ORMY ERRORSOR OMISSIONSH[RWiI.JIli5P*-1I
sR:Iy b ~5
'*II, _~
....
1I5t. No ~
111..,- m, ~
2nd CI' """'*G' iI MJ' pial(. *ttri CI'.,.,
....
a IIIiIII b' ~
a~
IIIJ pi-. a dI!I:UIImt ~
wm CI' fIO*ld.
~DIIJted

'86,
6;;:

....
60

..
111"'

Several external factors are limiting


Robm and Haas' perfonnance ...Indeed,
11Yn.
nIL
third-quarter results for the company's
10.~
7.0%
Sa""
'0%
largest business, Performance Polymers.
''Cash Flow"
9.0%
14.0%
B.O"
15.5'4
were down about 35% year over year,
"0%
5 .....
7.5%
9.0%
despite a 4% global volume increase. The
Ekx* Value
12.5%
7.5%
main culprit has been Inflated raw mateQIlARTERll
S
AlfSIS"j
F
C0Irial and natural gas oosts, which are 81Y., most
J.... :w
Doc.3t
70% higher than last year. and have
1;07
9T4.0 950.0 3999.0
9ll6.0 10119
perststed lonr.er than anticipated. Funher900.0
881.0
3720.0
937.0 990.0
'991
more, a s owing U.S. economy has
1919 940.0 1144
1571
5339.0 hindered demand in bullding, construc1678
lT58
1571
200lI 736
167a
tJon, and automotive markets. Higher
71111 average
2001
165/J
7111l 1~
1'75
selUng prices have only partially
WNI1IGSPERSlIAREA
FilII
CoIthese adverse effects, but fur
Y., mItigated
.... or 11&,.31 Jun.3D Sep.30 DIc.31
ther price hJkes are lIkely to come over the
.42
1M
.53
.46
2.04 next two quarters. Moreover, we believe
.61
.44 "2.20 that ROH has begun to see some easing of
1991
.58
.65
.50
.52
1919
.53
.59
.45
2.09 propylene prices. and that perhaps the
200lI
.61
.38
J4
1.75
.42
worst Is over on that count. However, in
2001
.53
.55
2.15
.51 .56
light of these ongoing external pressures,
QIJARTBlL1O_PAID"
Full
c
we have lowered our full-year 2000 and
1Iar.31 Jun.:W Sop.30 Doo.31 Y.,
2001 earnings estimates by SO.15 and
Sf
I.
.131
.15
.15
.137
$0.20 a share. respectively_
.167
1997
.15
.15
.167
.63 ...but there is a bright side. The Elec.17
.18
.18
.70
19M
.17
tron1c Materials segment. whIch serves the
.18
.19
.19
.14
1999 .18
-new economy" markets, continues to
200lI
.19
.19
.20
.20
shine for Rahrn and Haas, partJcularly in
ANNUAL RATES

Target Price Rangll


2004 200'
2003
100

,.
..-

127

172.0

Other
Cumllnl: liab.

28.1

18
12

3.'"

Aa:JsPay1lble

2.7%

49.4
24A

"

..

Ca.r~

49.3

26.0

1989
1990
1993
1995~ 1996
1991
1992
1994
1986
1987
1988
1984
1985
13.31
14.14 14.36 15.11
16.1t
1HO
19.23
21.02
9.16
9.93
9.99
11.DO 12.10
1.83
1.a3
1.63
1.611 2.02
1.93
2.40
31<
1.33
157
2..61
1.19
1.15
1.15
.88
ln3
.70
.71
1.26
1.110
J5
1.03
1.41
.75
.65
.93
lJ)
Al
.41
.45
.34
.39
.43
.45
.52
!iT
.23
19
.26
1.93
2.06
1.88
1.67
Uti
1.11
1.40
l.06
.110
.71
.7
'.38
1.'"
4j4
6.56
6.11
6.05
6.40
6.37
6.43
7.32
B.16
B.43
4.53
516
'.33
199.14 192.47
1
llLOl
23.6
13.6
12.7
10.3
17.3
15.6
12..
14..:1
9.'
lZJl
B.B
11.3
19'
j()
.71
BO
!lI
127
1.05
1.19
1.82
.91
.B2
.92
JrI
.96
3.4%
3.a%
3.0%
2.4%
2.1%
2.5%
3.1%
31%
2.4%
2.1%
2.~' 2.5%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE .. of 8I3M)O
2824.0 2163.0 3063n 3269. 3534.0 38B4n 39a2.0 .
TotIl o.tJl: $3932.0 mil. Du.1n 5 Y,. Sl945 fTJI.
1611 15.6% lB.3% 1UI 20.0% 19.7% 21.4%
LT Debt $3367.0 mill. LT Irrtel"Bl S24S.0rnill.
159.0
183.0 203.0 226.0 23.n
262.0
242.0
201n
140.0 211.0 112.7 264.0
3591
292.0
(48% Clp'l)
(Total ItB8St COY&3ge: . lx)
33.9'> 32.1% 33.4% 35.0" 351% 33.8" 33A%
Lnsn, UncaplblllDd Annual f8Il'tals $31.0nil
7.3%
5.3%
B5%
7.5%
7.5%
9.0%
5."
P.nllon LlablUty None
424.0
606.0 544.0 499.0 5llll.0 593.0
510.0
598.0 118.0 699.0 690.0 629.0
562.0
606.0
1233.0 1231.0 1428.0 1441.0 1620.0 1781.0 1m.O
Convnon Stock 219,71-4,585 shares. (52% Cap'Q
12.8%
B.7% 11.1%
9.4% 12.1% 13.1% 16.5%
uof1ltl31/DO
16.8%
11.4% 14.9% 12.0% 16.3%
Marbt Cap: 18.15 billion (urge C.p)
'9.4% 2OJ%
10.4%
4.9'>
9>%
5.8%
10.9% 11.1"
151%
CURRENT POSrrlON
0IJ0/0Il
:la%
57'10
42%
56%
39'ro
37%
57.0
64.0
16.0

Receivables
~'IUFO)

38.'

23.'

,"'

33.8

,.

,
I

DIV'D
YlJI

ltIE

Pel'C8'nt 1.1
112 h.....
176
1n
2.'
139lli79 1e98M

151
151

185304

20.7

)/FPiRAm 114

fl!a'ssbI

11!5~\
+35% 23"
1'%

&5

10.9

19.9
14.3

enling:l55
IIedi,,:l6J

.,'

Insider DlIClsiona
Jf.A.JJAI
000
1 0 0 200
flll
100000000
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutiol"llli Decl.lons

:::'1

8.1

162

Ann'RftlmToIII

......,
.., ,,,.. ,- .... .

'2.3

30 PiRAm 168

LEGENDS
8.11J rr:,Yl ftwDp 5h
. RelIlife Pnte S.lIlglll

PROJECTlON~_

Price

WCENT
PRICE

ComP:7:1
FIn_neil! StTHgUI
Stack's
rice StIIblllty
Prb GIV1I'ltI Pe.-.1stncI
Emil.
Prwdidlbiltly

B+
60
75
75

6.6 PI 8 9 ('rOin!I
ROLLINS TRUCK LEAS. NYSE.RlC I~~tr

...

RATIO

_~"SIIll

High:
Law'

5
3....,.,."
4...., 1<1lO1l1

TIIIlMSS
SAFITI
TECHNICAl

2.~
1.7

5.2
2.1

7.1
'.8

9.7
8.2

12.3
8.1

8.8
6.'

OCid':u ~licIrP,

3-Tor2

IlD's:UuI

15

+125%

1111

...

.,11'111' 1111111'

41

38

3220lI

6.0

'"
1987

56

"
1986

':Ii"""

.... "'"' ....... I~T"


P.~"' .~
.h.T..

..,

" ...

.....

11-"'1
ues

''Cash Flow"

t..-dM

31818

~~~

.,....

Book Value

....

.'

.. ......."
.

.',

...

,You

1988

Put

Put

6.0,,"
10.0%
15.5%

61...
11.0,,"
13.5%
,2.5%
15.5%
B.%

'

"

"

.. .
"

133.7 132.. "~1


145.1 135.2
"9.0
lsa.3
130.9 136.8
20DI 169.8 175.9 187.9
2OD1 llil
1911 20!
FIocaI
EARNlMGS PER SHARE
Y.,
1997
1998
11199
20ID
2001
CO!endar

1996
1997
1998
1199

2DDO

Dtc.31

Ilar,,1

Jun.30

""''16
8..5~

7.5"
13.~
12.5"
13.5"

.,1

FIocaI
Yur
1<18.5 586.7
160.9 610.2
164.6 627.'
186.9 72!1.3
115
IN

StpJO

Sep.3G

.15
.12
.19
.21
.16
.23
.19
.26
.2'
.26
.22
.2'
,IB
2J
2J
lI\JAJITEIlI.Y 0IVIlEN0S PlIO

.03
.033
.04
.06

.30
.03
.033
.04
.06

.055

.055

lIIar.31 Jlln.30

.03
.033
.037
.06
.055

9 ...

.21

S8lE

II" ~

You
.67

.97 maintained.
More importantly;
the prol>.62 lems encountered in fiscal 2000 could
.." Unger
for another 12 months. ManageFull

Dec.31

Y.r

(AI FY.ods "~. 30th. (81""'"


_...
through 1997, then dlkrted. Emudes gallS
1rml disc.. oper.: 118,~; '89, 1,; nonr8CllT.
gall (loss): '85, (5;'~ '88, 15; '00. 5~. Next
~ 2U1ll. v.-. liIr ~
All rt.1tI reI"ed.
THE PUBLISHER IS 1)1 Rf
cf I ..,
be RpItIkaJII. ..

.....
." ,

Fiscal 2000 (ended


September
30th)
was a very disappointing year for Rol~
lins Truck
Leasing. as share net
decreased 15% versus the year ago. Al~
though revenue advanced at a healthy
15% clip, the company's bottom llne was
hurt by a weak operating margin. The
company expeI1enced integration problems
stemming from Its 1999 acquisition of the
UPS Truck Leasing neet, Interest expense
was also hJ~her because of indebtedness
taken on to mance recent 'acquIsltions and
investments in its existing facl1ltles.
Maintenarx:e expenses were much greater
than
Rollins' mana.lhment
originally
antidpated, too, as
e fleet of about
11,400 vehicles it purchased from UPS
Truck
Leasing
had
been
poorly

.85

.06
.055
.055

.' .. ...
"

..

.25

.033

- -- -

Mento however. believes that the tntegra~


tion expenses should have less of an 1m.12 pact on bottom-Une perfonnance than they
did in the September
.11 The prospects for
cal 2001 are not
.21 promising. While some integration work
will still linger. Rolllns Truck Leasing also

.,.

rr.

-- "
12
10

8
8
5

.....

....

10.38

'.01
.85
.17
5.66

....,
58."
1-4.3
.7'
1.4%

..

2000 2001
10.97 12.45 1171
W
15
US
.82
.97
.9ll
.21
.22
.14
1U15
621
US
US
3.60
1.!J
5721 57.9ll
5T.1S
11.
.66
~
1.8%

--

......::

6102
60.9'4
183.8
6~0

,,- -

.. TOt RT\JR1111'\IDD

'Y'.
'Y'.

.28
.10
.21
..

.rm

- - ---

3.0

Est'1I'17 ...

A II

30
25
20

23"

QIlARTERll~I"'I'

1997
1998
1991

,....

Targgt Price Range


2003 20 ..
2005

I Y'.

1989

....

Dee.31 Mar.31 Jun

II.

.'

'''' ....
''''

".......%

'.9

3.6%

'I",

13"

tnn.

'.1

11111",,11'"

.,.

ANNUAL RATES

11.0

I','

1990 1991 1992 1993 199411111\'g~999


1984 1985
7.16
5.08
5.60
5.98
7.90
9.0<
651
619
6.8!1
7:11
o.'ll
'.46
'.99 5Jl
1.74
1.52
1.68
1.13
1.93
2.08
~60
~ 3.46
2.36
124
1.22
1A2
1.42
11
.30
.44
.51
.25
.28
.36
.57
.61
.52
1>
.22
.ll8
.06
.06
.06
.06
.08
.11
.12
.13
.05
.06
.06
.07
.09
.06
2.73
~16
2..
3.58
4J3
2:l8 1.39 2Ji) 1.58 ""TIll . 2]6
'.73 .4.57 4.92
~32
1.92
~13
2M
2J1
3.f7
1.74
3.66
US
1.9.
1.96
'.09
'.36
'.69
02N
82.40 67.30 67:91 68.32 0Il:60 - 67.<3 06.08
--nJ:l" <lV5
61.60
~
fD.2
8.3
10J
16.0
1U
16J
117
13.7
13A
11.1
1~5
37.6
1.4.1
ill
]6
.B3
.82
.63
.M
.n
1J4
~61
.87
.92
.85
.86
1.03
.B3
~~ ~3% ~2% 2~% 2.3% ~1% ~3% 2.0% 1,-4% 1.1% 12% 1.04% 1.7% 1.5\
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE IS of l1I3OIOO
331< 341.9 380.' ""'J
460.9 48~6 513.8 558.7
Tcrtal Debt $1273 6m~1 Duct an5 Yrs S725.0ml.
48.3% -48.9% 48.~
492% .49.9% 50.8% -49.-4\ 49.8\
LT Interwt $80.0 mill
lTDebt $1203.6mil.
97.2 106.
112.0 1~0
134.1 150.
170.4
90.'
(Long-mn i1'ltln51811T18d: 2.8x; telat in1llresl mY1M
19.0
2<.6
39.9
U3
34.1
<2.8
30.'
erage:2.7ll)
(75,,"orClp'1)
44.41 40.~ 38.4" 39.M
39.M
39.0' 39.7" 39.'"
Luses, Uncapftlllucl Annuall1!ntlls $7.7 nilL
3.41
6.5% 7.4111 8.8% 8.6"
6.6111 7.n,
3."
Pension UaWDty None
d9J
6.7
19.
21.9
24.8
37!
320
dol'
376.5 351.0
372.0 "".6
468.9 58~7 5663 645.3
PId Stock None
169.4 191.0 216.8 251.2 275.6 2&1.0 288.7
133'
7.4111 8M
7.6'.4 6.7% 72"
6.6"
7."
Common Stock 57,1'lUJ/JOshs . (25% of Cop'Q
11.2\ 12.9" 14.0% "9% 15.Oft 1~0" 14.8\
13."
MARKET CAP: $375 million Ismail Cap)
10.8\
9.1\ 10.-4% 11.5"
11.9\
13.4" 12.3"
92"
CURRENT posmow
9I3CMllI
2ll'Io
18%
16%
2ll'Io
2"
16"
20"
34.3
V.O
23.'
Co"' ......
12O.S BUSINESS: ~n5 lruc:t Lsamg Corponr!ilrJ {Icrrnt{ RLC ca.
75.2
InvenIDry (FIFO)
8.1
112 pcr.rtbn) the thill largest fukerYial nca, hiler, and ~Q
7.'
Olh,,,
25.1
23.1
38.0 IeIShg carnpIIrty il the U.S., Iel'Vic::ingamm 50,000 vehc. from
193.4
Current As-.
""'i34.'1 150.0
abollt 250 brand'! b::ati::Ina. The MalIiiJc/I bulk tucmg opemlDns
.30.1
21.9
.Accb PaYlbie
12.2
Debt Duli E
51.7
70.0 WIn liscmtilued il 118, and spun oI'J to shllllthokkn 1189. At".3
qui1ld
KMn ~asing (1lW9); UPS Tnd LMsilg 111199). Sold lit
no
112
0Ihe<
163.1
CUmlnt Lisb.
""TI'T.3 146.4

--

YlD

15.3

, I

JFMA.JJAS
0 0 000
0 0 0
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
000
0 2 0 0 0 0
Institutional Decisions

o
o

15.3
8.9

,I'

PrI"I~
Gom~l R_
25 +280%

ensideT Dee.ions

~_,

9.6
7.3

DIV'D

'"

HIII-2 5iJl 3191

2OO3-lISTROJECTIIlNS
Ann'I TO\II

........"".
....

9.3
62

LEGENDS
3-0 I 1I:15h farrDp 5h
...
RdiM ~
Skengll
:J.fDr2 51* .l2
J.IDI-2!ii*
M&

ITA ..Ill fl~.IIIrUf)

....

3-'.1
2.2

)1~lliTNE 0 62

II foE. RATKI
Mtdiil\: 13J

"'"
.... 1
""'"
'.8
-41.11
19.7

"

83.'

e VALULINEP\III. ~C. 03-45


A .......
,.IhA
elM FkJw" PM'III
E.nInp I*' Ih A
DlY'ds DIcI'd pw sh c..
Cop'l SpMdlnI P'"''
Boot_",,1h
Connoon SIlt
D
A'llAn.'1 PIE_
_PIE_
Awg Ann' IWcl YIIId

0VItt'1

IUIJ

US
1.1S
.J4

1.IIJ
I""
57.1J/J
'1.9
,7S
U%

...

627.4 720J
1VIl R_"'I~)
51.7% 31.1" _ii ....
31.3%
~7%
19!t.3 2<3.6
130 0_1"11)
230
47..4
58.3
!iZ.' Nil ,,",It ,...;.,
39.9'4 39." 38.71 JU" nan.TIIRdI
JU"
6.6111
N4tP!Dlt .....
9.0"
1&/"
17.4
3.6
30J
7... W-9
Cop' Ilnlll
698.2
736.1 1203.6
lU.
iInIIIl
292.0 320.' 395.'
CO Sltr. IloolII
.23
7.7'10 7'%
S-l%
UlI R.un on 10lilCIp'
Ull
I.....
17'% 17.6" '2....
1m R.....
RataiMd to Ccn Eq
14.6" 14.0%
11'"
2ll'Io
2711 AI DtY'ds to NIt IltoI
18"
26"
asSBIS .nd busness dRaIn
i.Dg'iIti::s to UPS ~
(11199J,
'99 depr. ~.: 10.7%. Ell 1M! age: 3 )'BID. Has 3,965 empL,
2,067 sEkhkD. Off. & dir. own 19.0"" of cmm:lfI (12099 proxy).
Chairman illld Chief EJr:ecutiwII 0I"ca-: John W. RoIWl .. InlDjlOIDd: CE. ~;
One RDIh PIiIZI, ~,
DE
19803. Tel8phone: 302-426-2700. Intamlt www.rE-cap.an .

,.

U"

66"

'"~
,...

u.;1;::?,,"

"'m.::~

..... .....

''''

faces the additional challenge of 8 weakenlng tnlck-rental market. Management conllrmed Wall Street's view that the used
truck market Is likely to get ~vely
worse. with the full-service easing buslness llkely to see moderating revenues in
the months ahead. 1llis. coupled with the
company's already weak commercial truck
rental business. bodes U1 for the fiscal
2001 bottom

lIne.

We recommend that investors avoid


this equity. Rollins Truck. Leasin~ock
Is cu=ndy
ranked 5 (Lowest) for
eliness in the WU'ue Line ranking system.
The equity may also carry more risk than
Its Safety rank or 3 (Average) Implies.
given the company's recent cash drain resuiting
from
h1gher-than-expected
maintenance costs and the highly leveraged balance sheet, (Fiscal 2000 ended
with the company's debt-to-capltal ratio at
75%.)
Furthennore,
Rollins
Truck LeasinS"s lack of cash has caused it to temporari1y suspend its share-repurchase actlvity, which It has used in the past to support Its stock price and bottom line on a
per-share basis .
William G. Ferguson
December 15. 2000

'ph;~

..... ... ..,..,d ......


.&n. (CI_d.'d
p,," "''''''.101
I,m . , .... f",_
n-ting .bout Jan. 911'1.
Goes 8J. about febru- (El Clnent pcdkln d equipment flllll'lQng obIi.., 1011. Appmx. div'd paymenl: da1as: 151h of gatiDns ilcUded il-de!ll due.
Man:h, .lJne, SapL, and 0lIc.. Div'd 18inwst.
fectull .....
il. obJined rn.. _
belitWilllo be I1ItiIlH -.I is puvided wlIv:U ~
cf ~
DId.
ORNrf fRII:ORS OR CM~OHS
H[RUt. TIli5paicaic11 is ~
for UI5aillrr's -.. ntWI-tII'IIMIdil. demlllI~
a~
iI "'1JIIi*d, ....
II" IIIlJlIr bill. II" UKIll b' ~
II" IIIIltrlIi'9 rtrJ ~
II" IItII1RRe ptIicaIiarl. ~
II" p1Illd.
w

SIDet's rice Stabllty


Priol GrowIJI ~1a1IIncI
Eamlngs Prwdidabllty
I

"

: II:

75
4~
70
I I

IRECENT
IP~CE

RUBY TUESDA~ INC. NYSE.RI


3 NNJ1Z2,96
2 Rfte:Il1lJoQl

SAFm

TECHNICAL
BElA

Z ..... .,...

lWEUJI[SS

Price

....
laW

Gain

1..+20%1

25

5....'

'8

High:
Low,

LEGENDS
!t.D Irtl!lh fo.Op
.. RtCNn' f'Irr ~9'J
l ....'~
SI9lI
2,'
~
WO

.10 (1.Dll-Marktl)

2OD3-05 PADJE~~

Total

0.3%

~v:e. ~

5.0

7.2

3.'

'2

.....

.. ..,

62

~m.,
I I

.. "

'"'

JJ

1111,.1111'

',.

... S

,~..
44

5e

16.6
7.0

Ridum

..

...,
110000001
~.
0 2 0 2 1 7 2 0 1
_11iI 0 1 0 3 1 3 1 0 0
huUlutiOMI DKlalons
iIQt..

11.0

'naidet" Dee.Jon.
JF

100.6
6.0

..

2Q2111 P.rcent
69 ..... rft;

:::'1 433~4~ ..es:g

.'

tn~

'.0

'I

..

....

.'

.'

""

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 )'1'".

..

1.1

TOT.RTURN "100

~'4=i_~_
0465

4.8

127.[1
251.8

197
83.

"---

Ruby Tuesday began in 72 as a ~ngle 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994


..
..
restaurant near the University of Tennes"
..
..
..
see's Knoxville campus. In '82, the business
..
..
was sold to Morrison Restaurants. On
..
..
..
317196, Morrison's shareholders approved
the distribution of tho casual, family dining, f----+----'+---'-'-f---..,.-----...;----.rni-t-m-f-TIiC+---iiOfio'>=::;2':':-:O='-+---i:rr-J
..
..
..
..
and health caro b<Jsinesses lo shrllldrs; lour
..
..
shares of the new ontily (renamod Ruby f-...,.,.--+----+----+
...........
.,;:;;----i.:;z.;-hmt-.,n;C+--mi-li'=~'iEi<:"i==.+--ii.>K-l
..
.,
..
Tuesday) far every oight shares (adjusted) f-...,.,.-----,+----,---+-----+....:;;iT---"rr----'i;rrt--'iii-+--'T,;C+-==-tit=i~iRr.ir-+....:;;m
..
..
..
..
..
..
of Morrison. The fanily dining and health
..
..
tam businesses were spun off, 319196.

..

CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Total o.bI $70.1 mil.

u of 1/3IICI
0l1li In 5 'rs $70.1

lTDebt$68.6mil
lTlnterest$6..0mil.
(Total ilWest aMlIiIge: 19.3J.1

Common

IS

Stock

or 1Dt1 JIOO

MARKET

CAP: $!lZ5 million

CURRENT

POSrrlON

11IIlLi

eo",

Assets
Receivables

'_(FIFO)
Othe<
Assets
Accts P.pbJe
Debt Due
CUrntnt

00..

CulT8nt

61,934,645 shs.

Liab

..
..

ZOOO

..

..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
.,

(Small Cap)

1199

ml.

..
..

"

..
..
..
..
"

..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..

..
..

..
..

..

620.1

655.4

711.4

122.3

791.5

.
..
..
..

11.0"
34.8
19.4
32.8%

12.04"
38.6

14.6%
41.9

..

3.1'
d33J

35.5\
3.8\

12.4"
13.8%
39.5
39.4
29.1
36.5
35.04% 36.2"
4.1%
5."

16.1
197.3
8.1%

d37.5
65.9

d32.0
76.8

d57.3

.
.
.

d33.6
78.0
223.6
9.1"4

2122
11.2%

221.8
12.9%

.6
229.8
21.1"4

25.D

46.5
36.0%
5.8S

..

g.,\

11.2'4 13.7\

16.5\

20.3\

..
..

98'
..

11.2\
.

15.11
8"

19.0%
6%

13.0%
5%

765 Rl\llllun ISmlnl A


f5.1tS OontilHlllarain
4D.O Depnddon

(Snlll

5U

IrtItProIt(W)
.3U% IncaH Tu RaIl
1.n. IrtetPro!:IIlar;In
d25.D WkkIlI c.p'(Sntlll
TfJ.D lonllTtmlDllbt(SniDI
1'"
fTA

Shl.-Eauitv I$allli
R.ftlmanToIIICap'

ZO."'~ ...........
Eaully
flItS RItlinMi to Con Eq
R AllDiY'dsto hi Prof

1115
f5.~
aD
Jl2.lJ

.35.11
US

d35.D
TU
495
fUJ,

18.Dl'
f1.$%
.. S

RUSSELL CORP. NYSERML


TIIEUIIfSS

WID
TECHMCAL
IETA

.10

3
3

26.5

31.0

Low: I

15.6

16.0

High:

lI1MlO
'019)
OlS!ll

36.3
19.8

3 _~
".00 _1IblUt)

~ v:.

"

AmI, 1II1:II

G*l

34"
24"

L ....

.tOl ..
58

:"':.1 154~

.. ...

"11'11'

ZQI.
501 _liar..
tradMI
Percent

,aJ:

4.~ _"
2..0
1.0 ~~~.~ .

17.02 17.67 19.83


2.n
2.91
2.7B
1.51
1.65
1.38
.70
.74
10m!
.15
.15
.16
.28
.32
.32
.78
.77
.96
1~7
2.B1 ~21
06
5.55 6.33
9.95 11.29 12.39
.,
7
"...
".51
".l1 ...."
'3.9
".7
16.7
9.7
112
1.0
1.1 1U
.94
1.04
1.09
1.19
.90
jj1
..95
.94
z.a f.81 1.11 1.11 1..S1 1.31 1.3" 1.2"
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE.s of 712100
713.8 804.6
Tatl.1 Debt $ 48921T11l Due.5
Yra $268.0 mI..
25.1l'Io 20.5%
lTOtbtS467.8mil.
LTllllera1$24.0mil
52.1
56.6
Ind. $6.95 mil. capilaliz&d IeBses.
68.D 56.8
(l T 1ntses1 earned: 3.8x; foCal i11hS1 coYeraglil:
38.01 37.1
3.51)
(47% d Cap1)
~.n,
Uncapi1.llir:td Annu:all8ntalll $6.9 mill
9.5"
7.1"
Pensloa liability None
249.7 2M.4
191.3 180.3
PIlI SIoc.k None
462.0 501!.'
Common S10ck 32,574,826shs. (53%of Cap'Q
11.3"
9.3"
","81'_
'~.7% 11.2%
MARKET CAP: 5525 m1lion (Small C.p)
11.9"
8.61
CURRENT POSrrlON
1.
1111
712JOO 2010
24'
13.8
179.3
3~:g

""!8iJ
101.8

Z2.Q3 23.Of rr.61


3.49
3.44
3;68
1.99 1.79 1.96
.34
.39
.42
~67
2.1llI
.97
13.97 1.54 15.84
"".41 J9.t!I
17.0 17.n 1U
1.Q3 1.00
.98
1.01
1.3"
899.1 930.8 109ll.3
22.6% 213% 19.4%
60.~
66.2
67n
B21
72.Jl
78.8
36.~" 3611" 382"
9.1"
7.6"
7.2\
285.4 278.0 310.3
185.5 163..3 144.2
510~ 561.7 528.7
11.8" 10.7" 11.2\
'H%
12.4% 1~5%
11.91 &.7"
9.91
17%
22'
21'"

1.."

29."
3Z.70 33.68
:US
4.04
3.53
1.38 2.11 1.48
A8
.50
.53
W
3.00 2.00
16.34 11.87 18.25

3312
3.30
1.18
.56
2.'"
17.31

JIS.rl

J:l.:ll

".3
1.16
1.71
11~6
15.1%
68.0
54.'
38.3'"
.71
438.1
287.9
632.5
7.0%
8.6%
5.61

3.S'"

JIS.\I:l

~.4l)

13.6
.65

21.0
22.5
111
1.17
1.71
2.1"
1244.2 1228.2 1180.1
'82'1 lBn
'8.1l'Io
721
7H
74.~
81.6 54.~
421
37.01 38."
.1.3'
6.6% -4,4"
3.6"
412.6 5Ot.4
435.8
255.9 360.6 323.0
679.8 665.6 614A
9.91 6.5"
5.8"
no%
Bl%
5.9%
9.2'
~.2' 3.6"
36'
4810

1.7"

2.'"

9.1
191.8

21.4

21.4

."

lyr.

_3)'1'.

10.2. BUSINESS: RuIslBICorp.isa'tllrtQllyirJtegl'n!ddes9*,manu201.4 fae:u..,.oo


marteB of Isistn applllel, B1hllrti: unifmns, and
~::
~:~
1ightwe;cjh1M:MiIn f.bra. Convn In lOIn irm fabriaI Ind
615.1
6i3J" yams b IISll in Is own fnis'*f IP~
Abou190% d uIes mil
132.9
136.0 I)II'm&nts for sports and ~
aew~iIs. Soli din!c:l:1y to

45.1

Aal.

relailer.l.1Id '0 -=r&an ~

Quafty Mil,

12/88; CIDath-

experienced
a
tou
quarter.
.
Share
profits
Est~dJ7ois"amounted to $0.78 in the September
peri7.0%
".5"
od before nonrecurring charges related to
''Cash FJaw"
4.5%
..(J.5%
11.0~
asset wrlteoffs and severance charges. A
~~
0.5% -6.5%
14.5"
tough prtclng cllmate
arxi weak
euro.
Book Value
which cut pretax. profits
by S3 million,
F:::":r~==;;;'=-=::::;7--r:::"'-i were obvious hindrances. but prolonged
c.tQUARTERLY
~LES l'...J '"
FiliI problems at the European
operations
were
eNb.ri"r.P.r Jun.Plr ~.Per DeeP.. Yur swprtslng. ShJpplng dela)'$ caused In part
1997 258.2 270.3 368.3 331.4 122B.2 by comput~-SYSlem
difficulties
resulted in
1991 256.2 271.8 317.2 274.9 1180.1 SJl million in order cancellations at Rus1m 233.2
260.4 344.9 303.7 11422 sell Athletic. And. though this unit will
_
252.0 282.5 356.9 JILl 121a
2001 270 2S5 JIG
~
1.285
ship product for spring. its rate beyond the
CatEAR.-GSPERSHAREAIII
first half of next year is In doubt.
end.r Ma.r,P.rJun.Per-s;o:P.r DIc.P. ::'r
and operating
challenges
remain.
f-7.:='-F===""::?'=""=;:;;::'/--::7.C-/
RML's
S500 million Jerseez business.
1197
.30
.22
.64
.32
1.48 whJch sells
mostly
t-shirts and sweat,.
.19
.18
.70 .11
1.18 shirts, is posting strong double-digit unit
.12 .17
.71 .64 E1.62 gains. Efforts to !.trengthen the brand
.19
.22
.TB
,71
1.9D
ha
2011
21
.24
.IS
.10
2.10 name
ve hel ped volume increases
surc.lClUARTlRLYDWl!BI)SPAI)C.
Full
pass the induslr)"s
mid..single
digit
expan
"'r
r.31 Jun.30 SeIl.30 DIe.31 V.... sian in recent quarters. However. competlf-7.=-t"~'-'~"'-~;!!!-~~+-'-7.:-ltors growing reliance ml less expensive
1996 .12
.12 .13 .13
.50 labor
and the llngering presence of finan
1997 .13
.13 .13 .14
.53 dally strapped
rivals have led to deteri1!!11 .14 .14
.'4
.14
.56 orating prices. Indeed, RMI...sS] 50 mtllion
1199
.14
.14
.14
.14
.56 restructuring
in ]998. which is almost
ZOOO
.14
.14
.14
ANNUAL
RATES 1::
~c:"U-i1l
9.0%

5~

~ ~]~ 6.6:

1.

(A~rs::

1991,then

be...,... ...

"~

:~,.'
..

5 yr.

~ ..

9.2

14.11

STOCIt
-41.1

IIIIEJI
30.0

-'0.3

10U

J1.'M J!J.M Salelperlll A


1I1l1 1!lC1 CaM Flow" pwsh
,.
118 E-ringlplflh".
.56
.51 O/v'dl Dld'd 1*Ib c.
2.811
~1' tlp1 :;ponomDI*"Ih
1U5
IUS BodtYllulperlll
at
annen:n~
..
11.4 ........
_ '''M",~lJlriO
.66
~~
R_MRdo
3.01
-"fgAmrlDiY'dYWd
1142.2 1110
1215 Wes(W) A
16.7'JO 1011 15.2ll 1000Rina Ii_
63.9
55.'
,... Doproddon (11111)
55.0
13..
'U N>I ""II /1,,111
18.% 39.0% JU'~"'TuRitl
0"
U%
NltProltllllrgil
460.0
5111
551 WarklngClp'($II1)
3n.9
QI
UI LongTlnlltIIbI($nIRI)
549.3
STD
"'" SIIr.-Equlty IlnlIi
7.3"
1,5% 70ft Rftlmlll'lToIIIC1p'1
'0.0% 11,0%lUll R....... Shr......
6.61 tQ%
&..f%. RnIMd tl Can Eq
3510
2ft
m AI Dtr'dJ III NIt PrcI
3U1
3.62
1.62
.56
1.63
16.7.

SA"

54M

5.J5
180

.
~'"
24.71
J(J.4(I

,..
.15
t.JI
1525
18K
7..

IS.I
JU"
U"
..

315
755
U"

1m
111.1S

'n

bond, 6m; GlIrT18, Inc., 1m3; DeSoto Mils, 4194. '99 dep. ram:
5.2%. HIs 16,645 ampls. 8lld .bou1 8,000 0Jckhc*j~. Russel
tamly controIa 18% of conmon Ax:k; otha' di'ec:bs .00 mIlMgan, 25%; (4100 Proxy). Cha""",
Presid.-rt, &
John F.
WatI. lnc.: AL Add.: 33SO RNerM:od Piriway Suite 1600, Allilru,
GA 30339. TsL: 678--742-8000. 1",,""81: www.I'UIMIalrp.axn.

ceo:

complete, broughenhanct
SI00 ~on
In costs
savings through
ed UJ:!>trlbutloneffldendes and a shift from 10% to 90% of
goods being foreign sourced. Still, management estimates
that roughly S60 mllllon of
these savings have been offset by lower
pricing, a problem that doesn't show any
sign of easing. Furthermore.
RML produces 65% of its own yarn. making it one
of the more vertically lntegrated partidpants in the industry
at a time when ootton and fiber prices have remained stubbomly high.
Favorable
ttade legislation
wUl aid
the bottom Hoe. Last month. a duty that
had been imposed on U.S.-origlnated. rablic retwning to the States from the Caribbean was eliminated. This should cut S10
million from RMl...s cost structure, and
help boost share net to about S2.10 next
year. G iven the issues regarding pricing.
compet.1t1on, raw mate:r:lal
costs. and European operations, though this estimate
is
tentative.

We advise that most investors


stay on
the sidelines
until there is evidence that
these problems are Coming under control.
Charles C. Moran
November 17. 2000

y8lI' ends Satil'da, nens1 Jan. 151 $0.18;02, SO.15; 03, $0.76.Nu1 ..
rr.t dill MI" August, Ncwember . DiviieOOr-.nves1. g calendar yea.(B) Pmary.-nngs
IabI January.(C)Next diw'dm8IIing Iboul Ja.... rnerrt plan h_bII!.
(0) In milDns. CE) '99
dikJ1ed. Em 1IOIdCIIlT.
II8IY 23. Goes ex-div'd aboUt hbrualy , ~
~
do ncf MId It' ruJ m.. tl c:hItnge i'l
mses: 1l3,~;
'98, $1.33: 7J, $1.38; W, 01 prox. diw'd paymentdill. 1811d Febnm'y,
shins outslan:Iing.
II 2UIll.VIlle I..iIe NIilhilg. Int. AI rigIi~~.
r-:lUlllllllllill
is CIIUined IIII'n StMCeS ....
1Dbe'-'l111
is pwilled .....
~
IIIIny kin1 _
THEPU8~R
ISMJl RESPON5IBlllORNf'r ERRORSOROMISSIONSH[RWf.
Tbispll:Kairllis5ft:ly1ul5lllmD(s-.-.<tIIIlIlMIIL"~use.
Na ~
d IIlW)'
a RmII*d i1q pIi*'d. .-mri:. lfherlan\ IMllIar ~
a ---..,,.......
~
pIIbbIian. ~
a puUt.

or

t~h

"

.....
ii~~i~ji~j~ii~
.".iiIiI

r:

22.9
12.9

"'I'III'hl'I,

Lg-::"::""::...,.,..,Ua::..=,""",,"",,,,.., ..-,2-,:~-=--;'55,...::~=='5::7=:::-\
RUS5eghll Corporation

'..:...,-.

25.1
12.1

'

13.16
2.16
1.36
1.17
.19
23
1.95 ~..
7.16 8.55

25.0

33.9
18.0

.'.,

19Bol 1985 1986 1987


8.94 9.74 11.16 1229
1.15
1.25
1.69
1.85

(,"LLI
CashAss8ts
Receivables
~y
(lIFO)
CtJnentAssels
Acds PayabIB
Deb!. Due

36.s

",TOT.~=

'IQ2.
.. 9

,eo:

3.3.8
23.1

,.

..

Inatltutio"'l Decision.
ilkS'

24.0

31.3
22.0

.'

RlU'n

IIIIIh 50 . '+215%\
l.cM'
S5 l+12D%)

32.'

36 .
26.0

nbIes rrnilwl

2003-05 PROJECTION~.
Prlc.

3.5%

16 Mm

40.4
27.8

LEGENDS
1.0 I CI~ Fm'" P sh
. . . RetiM Prr.t SlrtrigIl

'Ralder Decision.
DJFI"IJJA
..,.
1 0 2 1 0 '0 0 0 0
o,It.000000000
IISlIII 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

!RECENT
IPRICE

Company'l; Fnanclll ....


SiDe.;'. Price stalIllty
Price GIowtb

&+

60
5

P...actabll1y

Eamlnllll
I

gth

50
: II:

II

P
RYAN'S FAMILY STEAKNDQ.RYAN I~ftf 8.7 RAllO 6 4

TIIEUII[SS

3 """.'"
3 ... ,m",
4 lD'IeIed Ullom

SAFm

TECHNICAL
BETA

l%

High:

. 0

Low:

6.1

LEGENDS
6.0 I. CI.'ltl

i:b:1 =:-!JIP.JU

.&5 (lJ)ll.NWi)

2003-45 PROJECTIONS
TatII
Price
GaIn
Rnm
25
17
+95% 1ft

':a

Am'
(;~15~1.so" ,

r... p

10.3

12.6

6.'

7.

8 .

...

..

1984
.74
.10
.08

P.~nt
50 har
30

"

,.
" ..II -11""

....

".

..

..

..

16
.48
".14
26.0
2.33

.36
.79
... .,
229
1.88

.43
131

.92
1.64

..

..

363

30.3
206

2.36

.83
3>6

16.8
139

11.3
131

1. 4
1.07

18'
1.18

..

I"" of Cap'g

,... ,...

"""' ......
I.....

1.6
2.7
'.3

ReCllivables
~ntory (FIFO)

---rJ.4

Cumtrrt Assets
AabPayabie

6.8
".0
342

De'" Oufi
Olh."
CuR1lnt lJab.

125.0

ANNUAL RATES

5:d~
BootVaJue

15.5%

13.0%
10.0%-

..

13.5"

2DIIO
2lllIl

eo.

12.5

~453

43.8
".1

..

-,

,,"-

.......

-'

'0,0,,"

(I oIll'

R~
C... QUARTERLY
ender
1997
11911
1.

11.9

16.0%
13.5%
11.5"

13.5"
12.511
'2.5"

IIlr.P,r Jun.Plr S.p.Plr DeeP'


146.4 157.2 152.7 1429
153.2 167.5 152.4 153.9
159.6 114.2 110.5 160.4
168.3 181.0 171.8 l1ZJ
171
190
111
1'1

1.

I.

....,

1997
19911
1999

2DIIO

QUAJlTERLY
DI'ImNDSPAI)
IIlr.31 Jun.30 SeD.30 Dec:.31
NO CASH DIVlDENOS

BBNGPAJD

w"'~

Ni,

'3""

EARllNGS PER SHARE A II


Indar 1I1"P,r Jun,Plr S'D.P.r DeeP'
.17
1997
.21
.24
.20
I.
.20
.23
II
14
.26
.26
.29
.29
J4
2DIIO
.29
.36
.31
.37
2lllIl
.31
..l9
.33
CoI-

..

...

'. ..

Full

'IOr
599.2
637.0
"'.7

7011
7.l5
Full

'IO'
.82
.91
1.10
1..lD

1.40

"'"

'IOr

30
25
20

12
10

.'.

..

,...
,

..

..

..

u.

...

,.,

..

..

..

..

666'
14..81
24.5
37.0
30K
6"
1164.7
..
.. 93.
..
..
209.7 238.7 269.4 lO2.7 294.0
'4.3% 12.0% 11.31 11.01 10.01
143% 120% 113% 11.0% 126%
'4.31 120% 11.3" 11.0' 12.6%

..

1621
176.9
15.8% 131%
16.8% 131%
15.8' 131%

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

.,

... .7
15.0'
28.3
21.6
416
391
'03
36.8% 3M% 37.31
83%
6.3%
6"
<132.1
d62. d111.6
93.0
81.' 172.4
317.1
280.4 283.4
10.0'4
10.31
12."
12.4% 14.4% 14.7%
5991

15.'"
261

12.4%

..

631.0

14.a'

144%

..

14.1%

..

1 ".

,,,.

I.'

111Gl1

19.7

U"

d5U
1/10
2T.

ns

1'"

".

--1$I11III1'

I$f

O_"MugiI

11"
37.
4..
37.'"
5.IIl
d5U
101
3ID
'.5%
13....
'11%
N'

_I,,"WI

No1 .... IIIImlll)


37-'" IrICOIIII Ta RI1t
7% No1 .... IIM....
Cop'(1no1l)
d5U
1116

W_.

~=~I~

,.. Shr.

. ($I11III

fa'"

10.01 Rmrn on 10lil ClIp'

lH%
15.5%

,"-'"

iii

,.-

,...
.... m....

37-'"

22.1
83'
c\lAlllfUHEPUB
1tC. 03-45
2001
2Ul RI'IIIl_pwlh A
2M 'C .........
145
"''''
1." &m>tgo '" III
NIl Dtv'd' DKI'd pit Ih
Nil
215 Cop' 9pondin. '" III
.IIIJ
lUS Book Vllue pII" III
l5.JO
:4/1/1
IJD
''lIAn''I~.....
R_PIE_
.75
AV; Ann'l lh'd YItId
//I

...... ...~-.......
:: ..
700
11"

. ....,. r---

....
.....
~

.. TOT. RETURN

1998
1999 2000
1993 1994 199~ 19~997
7.42
8.40
9.60 1153
12.75
16.21
23.J5
]8
173
2 ..
1.02
116
1.39
.98
..,0
.82
.94
1.10
53
!if
.72
J2
..
..
..
..
..
..
NIl
1.0,
116
1.33
1.48
1.15
1.33
1.83
1.01
1.12
6.01
7.16
HI.
3.93
4.-47
6.66
8.00
8.76
",,.,.
",
/1/1
11.9
9.8
125
11.1
lU.6
10<
18.'
1.10
M
.70
.81
.fiT
.67
.ll6
J2

..

,.

- -- - --

--- -

,II.

'

6.' BUSINESS: Ryan's Family St.k Houses, Inc.. OperRs 8 sllgllt3.6 CDnCtfpl rest8uanl chaW! consistng of 299 cc:mpan)"'Opflf<lf8d and
62
22 hnch.ised
l'85IaLr.lnb bcaIed prn;ipaly in tile IOIJIhern IIIld
6"
20.' mltwesEm Unied staEs. Restatr.lntl feBttn call1l:<<ia-4ytl "*y,

Pat Est'd'l7'99

Pat
llYn.

40

273.1 299.0 3622 396.4 "9.1 5131


17.7% 16.4% 11.71 15.9% 15.3% 14.61
10.5
121
14.6
2U
181
20.8
30.1
21.1
233
30.5
331
28.5
37211 37.1% 37.5% 37.0% 304% 371%
8'%
1.8t.
8.5%
71%
6.8% 6"
d37.0 044.0 dl9.7 d75.4
d90< dlO2l

0127.00

.6
3.0
4.7
'.9
132

Target Price Range


2003 2004 2005

-'"'1,1,'1,,1

6.60
J4
.68

..

..

..

MARKET CAP: 5215 mlllkln (Small Clp)

Rewnue
''Cash Flew"

.5O

289

PhI Stoot Nonol

d_"'"'1

..

.81
2.43

Pension liability None

,.

.85
2.02

AnnUilI rentals S.6111il

CURRENT POSITION

72

3".

..

LT Int_rest $14.0 mllY o.bt $194.0 mil.


(41%ofCap'l)
(Total in-.st c:cverage: 9.3x)

CommDn Stock 31,901,000 .hs .

.3

".0
1.1

CAPrrAl STRUCTURE .. of 9m.


Total Debt S194.0mll. Due In 5 Y... S17S-0mil.

Lusea, UnCllp/taJiad

72

24.0

..

..

..

10.4

'.'

"

'':''!.. "-"

14.1

,
.'

2....
20387
19B9 1990
,.992
1986 1987 1988
4.60
3.69
5.19
5.66
1.11
2.01
206
]I;
.68
.42
.50
.67
.15
Z7
.37
.41
.48
.44
.12
11
.32

"

8.6

Nil

13.4

5h

,- .... t~_

257.'
19B~

6.1

10.1

SlrSlgm

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700
0 0 0 0 0 0
o 0 0 0 000 1 0
InsUllllJoMl DKlaIona
3

8.'

LATNE

ftIc.Ir.I rta'ssi:NI

III" ,.,

JF.AIIIJJA$

50
51

. 1
6.,

11.8

)IFPi RAM 0 44 D1VU


IlD

Insider D-elsion.

....:
....:.::.n ....

8.'
3.

(T,"",
IIedi.l:11.11.1

'4.5% R_
'" 510.e..ltv
RIIaInId 10 Con Eq
iii AI DN'ds 10N.t. Prof

and
and

10,500 sh.-eholdlrs. AI oII"lCeIS & dileQors own 4.0% 01 mmrron


ftlck; Tnm.t FmnciiJI ~,
13.31-; .web
Balik Cap., 5.81(:wG proxy). Chliman,
~
allll CEO: ChIrBs D. Way
(CM'ns 1.1% d cammon). InD:I'PO"II:ed: South CsbIna. Addrtss:
40S lancasw Avenue (29650), P.O. BCD! 100, Gr8er, South C8oIina 29652. Telephone: 864-879-1000. IntIIrn8t www.l}MSiIc.ctm.

Ryan's Family Steak Houses' recent


results have been rather lackluster.
Although third-quarter share net climbed
a respectable 7% over the year-earller 8g-

Under the current authorization, it may


stlll repurchase another 7.2 mUllan sh.ares,
which will llkely be accretive to earnings
over the next several quarters.

ure.

The

MStaakJ, ButIII & B8kery,M and au I'8lISOOiiIbIy pr1ald. P~I


benef"1Is: 29.61- rI "99 sales. Has i1boU1 19,000 ~

to

$0.31,

this

gain

resulted

from

nearly 13% reduction in the company's


diluted share base. Actual net income
declined
9%. owing to weak sales
trends
and slgn1ftcant cost pressures. Indeed,
sarne-Slore sales, a good measure of 8
restaurant chain's relative health, were up
a mere 0.1% for the period, suggesting
that Ryan's efforts to boost customer
counts, inclU~
expanding the popular
carving bars
raising the pedormancebased incentives for store managers, have
yet to reap big returns. Escalating expenses also remain a threat to the bottom
Hne. The company would have fared far
better in the third quarter were it not for a
marked uptick. in beef prices, labor. and
utility costs.
Stock buybacks should support sharenet growth in 2001. Since me repurchase
progr8m's

inception

In March

1996.

Ryan's

has bOUght back close to 23 million shares


(it bought 600,000 in the third quarter), or
more than 40% of its outstanding stock.

IrE............,

company's

prove

Cooking"

quite

popular

with

the

dining

public

and give Ryan's a much-needed facellft .


Though just an average choice for the
year

ahead,

Ryan's

shares

may

appeal

to value-oriented.
investor'S as a 3- to
5-year holding. The issue continues to
trade at a relative earnings multiple well
below its historical level and at a deep dIscount to the broader market. Still, cautlous Investors should probably walt for a
noticeable Improvement
in same-store
sales before making a commitment.
Justin Hellman
December J 5. 2000

(.~
.... o, ...
d'''''''' ,'''',
be....
(C) " m........
_
fa' me pIt
t!'l
31st.RevllIlues iIc.UIe
ise on PIlnIQ8 shares outs!iIIJI1iJg pta 10'97. E.rfees, buI. excUSe i'IteI1l!II: and mt1er n::orne.
cUIes nornaI'mg (bsses~ '92, (SO.01); '96,
($0.1
N8xt .-nklgs
report due ri:hlilllUiIry.
II z,*, YMIe lJIe ~
AI ~
__
. }Kl~11IINriII
is oIllined franI 5CUte5 IMIIiewd III be .......
is pvri:Illf .....
...-irs d
rut P\J6USH{R IS NOTR[
selL
OR Nn RRORS OR OMS'5lONS HERlN. This plIIIIEaD is 5I'dy lor ~5
own. ~
11II11II U5e.
J*l
d t rrrrbe ~
5IlnlI,. ~
iI mJ /Ili*d. ~,.
~ '-'"
useII b ~""""
InJ piad"ebfrri: pIIbbIDr, saW:e" puUt

"D1stlay

restaunmt
fonnat oug t to help build
guest traffic and top-Une momentum
in the coming
years.
1bis format,
which
allows OlStomers to watch steaks. fibs.
and harnbw-gers
being freshly grilled.
Is
being Implemented in all of Ryan's new
stores wilh. excellent results, As such, the
company plans to begin converting some of
its existing restaurants
to the fannat in
the near future. We think this move w:Ul

:1c.~'

ComP:1.:F ... ,,,,,, Sbo'gIh


SJocl.. rie. StlIlIIt)'
Prb Growth hnIIdIInce
brnl. Predlctablity

I "

: I I:

8+

70
20
95

II

SAFEWAY
INC. NYSEswy
2,...,,,, ...

High:

TJlEUIIESS

350~

30.'

".111,1

......

".

...

".

P .-cent '.D
"'0'
218 ".r_
,
,~
~

..

~t"

0 .1..

I.

24
2'

..

0"

.."

,-"

".

"

".. ... ""..

ca:-~

Receivables
Inventory (LIFO)

Oth.,
C4.lInll1t. Assts
Acds Payable
Debt Due
Other
CUrrent L.i8b.

ANNUAL RATES
......
(po."

Ss'"

''Cash FJow"
Eamilgs
DiYidends

Book Value

...., lY.

45.7

200.'

1856.0
218.1
2319.9
1595.9
321.5
976.2
2893.6

'06.1

292.9
2444.9
208.1

3052.1
1878.4
598.9
1105.3

3582-"
Put

Put

,,"-

11fB.
-1.0%
11.5%

6.5%
18.5%
37.0%
.-

-----

.... 0%

l!..

110.2
347.1
2310.5
261.1
3035.0
1n8.4
573.3
1504.6
3656.3

Est'd '97'.
CD1:1-'15

9.0"
13.~
15.5'J'

N'
22.D"

F
Q\lARTEIlLlSAlfS "jA
Ir.Per Jun.Per S'''-.I
DeeP, Ya,
1897 4078 5249 5311 17116 214114
1198 5389
I9Z3
5583
5589
6113
6415
8935 2B86O
6337
1'"
lIDO 1086
7418
T45T lD114 !XI'
1125
TJZ5 11350 346Z5
280' 1'25
EARNltGS PER StIARE A II
CoJ.
F
Y.,
lII.r,Per Jun.Per SeD.P,r DeeI,
.26
.42
1.25
.30
.ZT
'897
1198
.33
.50
.38
'-59
.38
1,"
.40
.59
.43
'-88
.48
lIDO
.48
.S US
.55
.53
2ID
lID1
.!if
.16
.12
.14
Q\lARTEIlLlDIVIlENDSPAD
F""
."r.31 Jun.30 SI .30 Dec.3i Ya,
1186
1191
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
1198
B8NG PAIIJ
Cal-

2_

"'or
e..

"'or

,.

'"

lIDO
(AI Filall yr. encIs on Sid. ~

.-

--

--

.'

1995 ~
"1996
1997
1994
39.00 '722
3118 38.37
1.80
~26
1.38
153
.51
.97
115

_.

..._.

..
.-

1.54
~
1.86
419.20 427..40 442.80
11.8
14.3
J4
.96
1.11

",
.-

.-

15627
29."
6.,",

lE3911
29.2'

--

199B
49.94

W
1.59
_.

--

32" ,,-"
--

--

1999

--

.19

4.51
476.20
20.7

490.36

26.3

1.19

1.31

--

--

2000

58.47
3.38
1.88
'18
493.60

25.1
1.43

_.

2....
31.5%

,~"

_ .

_.

--

56.2
..9
386.8

14.8 ,....-300
lOot!

,..,,

.YALUEUNfPUB IIC. o~
~I"'MA
"'1'
4-45 -Calk Flow-pit sh
'.l1li
2.15
Eamln;s fill' Ih II
11.
MI
III Dh"dl Dld'd FIll' III
IIi1
12M Book YIIuI pII' Ih
lD."
XI'
4S1.5D
e-"'''''bt~C m.5IJ
AYII Ann' PIE Reo D
X.
,,35
R_PIERdo
~
AWl! Ann' DiY'd ytlkl
NW
32fT! 34825 _(lnIII)A
!3-""
32."" 3WI GrouM-vin
!lpMdn, .....
,,-""
17l1li
IT50 Hum_of Stan,
lJDD
Not
_
(lnIII1
"55 13J5
41.5'11 4'03 IncoIH To RItI
15'11
4A~
1'"
dl5D
dUd Not """ Cop' ($noli)
rI5IIIJ
5MD
52111
63JD Sin.
ITBD
12.5'11 'lIS RItunI on 101a1c.p'I
.....
,,-"" R_onShr.E
21.""
".5'11
tll Cen Eq
21-"" R.....
21.""
"5'11
,. AI Dit"d. to NIl Praf
IIi1
HU
2001

f5.7D
4.l1li

~"

~.- - ......

-..::....

dS30,
6357.'

4085.8
10.9"

23."
23.8"

--

--

,.

4f""

w_,

"':"=::\""
sma..\1nII1

"'"

MexiaJ (1lI'5lI1bi lII'8 ft!lpodlld on l~u"


deI.Iy basis). Has
193,000 empbyees (90" unionized). 1999 depracialm rate: 7.2%.
KI<R and IIIfiIte5 controIllbout 9'" 01 sb:k; FMR Call,. '0"; 0I'f.
& di'. (exdudi'Jg KKR), 3% pm pruxy). CEO: Steven A.. BIA. Inc.:
Ol!lli!wanl. Address: 5918 Sb1eri:lge Mal RoId, Pleasankxl, CA
94588-3229. T81: 92S--'67-3000.
lntmnet: www.saIirwI'I.CJ::m.

Safeway is getting a boost from the


implementation
of new sales-building
strategies.
In fact. recent Identlcal-store
sales gains. including a 4.2% jump in the
September quarter, have easily beat those
reported by other multlregional supermarket operators. For competitive reasons.
Safeway has been tight-lipped about the
delails of these initiatives, but it expects
each rroJect (over 10 have been IdentlRed
so far to boost same-store sales by at least
1% when fully rolled out. ibis strategy, to
be implemented over the next several
years, should aid safeway's efforts to win
additional marltet share without having to
sacrt8ce margins.
Further ~anslon
in operating
margins shoul
belp drive solid earnings
gains well into next year. The company
already ranks among the best in the 10dustry in this area, thanks to Improving
bUying practices, an expanding prlvatelabel presence, and rigorous control of general and administrative costs. Safeway,
though. sees additional opportunities to
Improve the produetlvity of the existing
asset base. and it is now aiming for operatIng margins of 11% within the next few

years. Meanwhile. SWY's strong cash flow


should allow it to boost share net by retlring debt or repurchasing stock.
These timely shares have moved up
steadily over the course of the year.
There are two matters that oould restrain
the stock's upward bias in the near term_
Safeway
expects
December-quarter
"romps" to fall short of the thIrd-quarter
number due to a dlfficult. year-over-year
comparison and a slight delay in the implementation of one of Its more promlslng
sales~bulld1n~ pro~'
In
addition.
workers at WY's alifornia distribution
center recently went on strike, which will
likely add to the cost of doing business in
the near term. (lbe facUity is owned ~
Safeway. but operated by a third party .
These shares offer modest appreciation
potential out to 2003-2005. Our long-term
prolectlons. however, do not include possib e acqUisitions, which appear likely over
the next year or two. Following the pattern established in recent years. Safeway
will Ilkely target we1l-estabUshed regional
operators that can benefit from its pur~
chasing power and cost-cutting acwnen.
Robert M. Greene, CFA November 10. 2000

Dee: 31. In- nlCUI". gallS (Ioues): '90, 3; '91.gJ11/ '92, to Sin!'" "1-,..-loliIII.
perixf5 iIf1l 12, 12, 12, and 16 wts. long (fit); Exd. eldnI. gails (bses):
, ; "91, (C) In "*>mI. adJ. b" stx:k .pUls.
(8) Buld on prrnary sh. out Itn '95, then 4t!;:J2, (6), '1M,
'97, '1~1.IncL resIruc- ~D) No p'i:8 hisPy ~
111B6and4190
d.. W N8xt egs. Il!pl: due ~ Jan. ExcI. non- hIing
3. QuIrt8I1J egs. 8lljll8lld ~
rnn~

(2_t.

a.ue; w.
f'
L
IbIoJni'
l
lk:'
AI rrcM 115Bftd. TMliIIIIMIIriIII5
IltbinIIlIIanI
tl*\ItId ID lie""" .. iI fI1I'l*!II
THEf'\IIUSlJl1S rJI RE
SBU ORANYERRORSOR CMSSiONSHER[lN. Tbisfl*lliollif, 5lrdy"'~_''''~
"1..,.1IIp1IlIlI:ed. *'-I nnn-. i1.., ~ ~
111.- .....
UMIO'" gtr'IdiIlg ~
.
-.....:
2QJCl.

1yr.
3yr.
5)'1'.

.." ,."" fQ"

1609
970.
'2.0'4
3.4'

..............
.....

'10 T01. RETURN 10IIID

aUSINES$: Si1eway Inc. operates aboUt 1,lS5OsupwmarketS in


the California, Pacific NoriITwest, Rocky Mountain, SouIhwesl, MidA1IIi!Inlit, llinois, and Western Canada ngiDnl, rrost with '1 12
marll:st shin. OpliDles 43lT111nuflld1h1g .nd processing facities.
Acq'd. Vons Co., 4/97; Dcmni:k's,
11195;Carr-GonPlin, 4199;
Randars, 9199.HIs I 49% irNlnIst in Casa Ley, food nlI.IiIBr in

1Iiml

II

.-

"

~
~

.~ '"

."

"
12

....

"

17269 224114 2.....


CAPrrALSTRuCTURE ofWg~
21.2% 21.5\ 27.2'4
30.6"
26.7'
29."
31."
lotll Dlbt $6168.5 mil. Du. tn 5 Vrs $5295.0 mil.
7.1'
5."
'.0'4
'.1'
'.4' 7."
LT Dlbt $5595.2 mil. LT rnte..-l: $425.0 mil.
.- U17 1103 1078 1(162 10!!1 IOS2 136' 1497
Ind. S407.5 mil cap~alized IeBses.
79J 133.1
96.4 123.3
2501
3263
460.6
621.5
606.7
(LT merest earned: 5.41; total IJhnst
47.6% 50"
43.0'4 ,1.0'4 41,4' 40.0' 42.3%
aM!li!llIe: 5.b)
(53% of Cap~ 59.0'
Luses, Uncapflanzm Annual rentals $325.8 mil
~I' ~,%
3.3'
1.6'
.9'
-"
202.9 134.4
273 dZ47.4 5386 114241 d31S.6 d508.9 dS73.7
PenslDII Liability None
3004.' 2910.8 29361 2481.3 2024.3 1949.8 1128.5 30-10.9
dl83.4
21.4.4
243.1 382.9
643.' 795.5 1186.8 2149.0 _1
PIlI Stock None
9.7%
8.61.
13.3\
15.31- 18.6% 14,'" 11.9"1.
Cammon StocIl498,400,DOO shs. (47% 01 Gap')
9"
(511.7millOn fuJly-dilutBd shares)
-'1.0% 38-"
2'.9'
26.2'
62." ".5' 32.2'4 38-"
MAM.ET CAP: 121.4 billion (La. Cap)
41.O'J. 38.8% 28.97.
-- 62." ".5'
2'6.2'
_.

....

'00
80

32

"I"

."

- - - -- -- - --

....

till" I'

PI1c. Range
2005
20"

40

1992
1993
Safaway In~ was formed by the leveraged 9~0" ;9~1
buyout fllll1 rI Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & 46.89 38.69 38.34 37.47
C. (KKR) to eXOQJtethe pun:hasa rll00'llo
1.12
1.13
1.10
UI6
01Safeway Stores, In~ stllC~the predeces.21
18
.21
.26
SOl' to today's company. The deal was com.---jI
plated in November 1986. In April 1990, the
.55
.62
'.58
company sold to the public 20 million com-- 311.20 390.80 39510 406.00
moo shares at a price of $5.625 per share;
13.4
1~.3 11.1
16.3
in May, 1990, another 3 mi[~on shares were
1.00
1.04
~
.issued at the same plica, to cover overallol.--man1. during the April offering.
14874 15119 15152 15215

CURRENT POSrrlDN

Ta.t
2003

55.0
30.8

10000
1 000
o , 0 1 700 2 0
o 1 0 010 0 0 5 0

247

.2.4
29.3

51.4

-.

3"

..... ,....

31.7
21.1

fort

,."

InstltutionalOIlCI.ions

'12.7
11.3

'2.9
1.1

Nil

IIMl
lID

PfRAOO 157

"
ouL"'-

DJFM"'MJJA

:::~'~

a.o
'.a

'.7
2.1

2.4

g2U)frU1M

7(T ..~... .. ,\7J

R..,m

"""
1+7%l

218

..,

22

~'" _i1Ibes~_

Ann'I Total

Pri..
High
90
Low
+15%
lnaicler Decisions

...,

.4
2.9

Pf
RAOO

53

LEGENDS
11..DIc.!tIr .. p~
. . .. RdI_ Pril:e Slrenglh
2.for-1 'Pl 1M
2_-1 ~
ZIH

TECHNICAl.
2 """""'"
IE1A .so (1m .. MMt)
lJllI3.lI. PROJECT1ON5

"~
2. I

Low:

3 """"0 ...

SAFETY

.,..""...,

I~CEHT
PRICE

\'-.e liIe

5lllIIte

CI"

II"

""-

......

~ ~

UIcL
iriI.lImI use.
pili
pdIbbl. MniI:z pCIUI..

COI'IlPanJ" Flnane.1 alWlglll

Stocl:', Price 5t1.blitJ


Price Grvwtb P1Ini118M:11
e,rnlngs Pndictablity

: It:

8++
65
90
70
I I'

scons co.

NYSE.s1llG
I
I
3 '-",""'"
LEGENDS
3 .,.""..
'.D,CaJII ".p sII
3 .",,"111"" .. , RetIlive Prl::r Slrfllgll

lWHlIIESS
SAFETY

TECHNICAL
.!lO

BETA

~~

(l llCI. Mlrt.el}

33

I~CENT
PRICE
High;
l.<M<

24.5
13.5

14 0 (t''-inl'ZlJ

Pf
RAllO

lM
lledi.dllF )IF ff RAllO

2.5

20.3

15.3

14.5

24.0
15.6

21.5
16.1

31.8
19.5

Ann'lTotaI

GlIn

0
0
~
2 1
InstituUonal

...

I~

1984

.--~

ND.lF.".JJ

..

0 4 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Decisions
101- Percent 1I.D
58
58 ahar .. 12.0
40
51
'.0
'3840 12922 133711

- ..
,"",

1985

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

1986

1987

..

..
..
..
..
..

1988

..
..
..

..
..

..

..

..

.2..

Target PrieR Ran""


2003 200.
Z005
100

28.5

31.9

--

40
J2

,.

2'

20

..

12
.'

.. . ....

".

'.

.. .

...""'" .....
... -

~ Tot R1l..IIII !IIIO

1~.

..

..

..

16

.26

.1'

d.l

.34
.DO

.....
...

"::7

".

19.59
1.41

....

.0

22.12
1.06
1.01

28.76
1.17
117

.n

..

..

8.35
1.
20.0
111

6.79

1.58
7.96
1.

16.4

f4.V

.97

.82

412.8

466.0
13.'%
18.1
21.1

1996
1997
39.20 <W.48 48.11
236
1.48
311
.
1.59

.,.. .....

..

Is

~.7
28.7
"9.1

3~.

'~.

1999
2000
2001
6UI
6llM
89.58 6UO
57S
631
585
'11
1.62
LII
1411
1M

..

..

..

15.4

282

9HI

1:. D~5

.YAl.UElIIEPIIl
~pII'lh

75.0Il
7.611
175

_~=
II.

"Cnh FIoo" por III


Eamklgi J*' th II
iii DiY'dl DKI'c1 J*'"
1411 Cop'l 6porIdIlI9 por III
16.15

MI
3.fQ

1.63
11.33
1.
14.8
.85

Z16
1238
18.

3.63
104.64

1"
11411
2I.0Il

15.4

11.7

147

.6ll

.67

606.3 1328
900.8
751.9
TGtaI Debt $886.2 tnl. D.... In 5 Y ... $350 mil.
11.51.
14.6'
14."
12.4' 12.3'
14.8'
LT Debt $836.0 mil.
LT InIiIfnt $75.0 mil.
15.8
20.5
17.8
13A
293
2.5.7
3D.'
(LT n. earned: 2.51; tDtaI int cawralile: 2.5x)
d6.9
1.7
15.1
39.8
23.9
19.1
10.8
(7"llIes,'O
.. 61.'% 42,4' 40.5" '2.9% 38.8% 625% 431%
lei.... UncaPtLI1lz1d Annual18nlllls S1VI mil.
Peasion UlblMty None
3.9%
~MF . % 1,.. '.5%
1.4"
2.'"
Pfd Stock None
181
54.8
78.8
140.6
21.3
229.8 1812
'46.8
Common Stocll28,D40,'Sl stIs.
1826
In... 31.7
81.1
220.1 272.0
223.1 211.8
(28% d Cap'~
143.0 1681
1141
d.l
175.9
3891
383.8 3613
Wiln1Ints 3.0 mil., ea. to buy 1 com. sII. 8t $21,
110Mi
8.4%
3.4%
'.K 9.811 11."
8.7"
525, end $291tnJ!W3
..
.. 8.6% 14.1% 141% 6.1% 2.8% lD.1%
MARKET CAP: $925 million (Smln Clpl
..
.. !l.6' 14.7'
9....
NMF ,..D%
7/tlOO
..
..
..
..
CURRENT POSmoN
2.5%
6% 1161
(lIIlLl
es,",_
30.3
SUSlIESS: The Saltm Compiillny is the wMd'1 t,ygest fIElI:w end
10.6
79.'
374.2
R8atiVi11b1es
1046.6 201.4
I1'I8ItetIlr of tll'f & Iaic:uIIlnI
prndlJC1s. Blancl names nclJde
294.1
313.2
~ntory (FIFO)
177.7
Sc:aIl!, H;poner & UI1Ide-Gro. Foreign lis. 23.8"" of '99101al k,.
96.8
3Z.3
".D
CUlT1InlAs.m
,.1.1
""64T.'T 793.7 quirw:l Hyponex ir1 '89; Republic, 11192; Grxe-SiIIna, 12193;
n.. 133.5 195~ Nhde-Gm, 5r95; MiacIt G8rden CIn, 1,{17; EITIlIIiIkl.GrBen,
DettDue
50.1 10197; leYingbn tbticul:1I'1I l':l., 12197; Ortho, 12198; fUI:lM.
13.3
56.'

1113.0
14.0%
31.8
49.1
<W3%
4."11353
3591
403.9
8.8%
121%

1648.3
13.5'

,11

17.3%

21.2%

20%

18%

Poulenc, 1/99. Hal .bout 2,900 81J'C)1s., 8,500 Ihtdn. '99 depr&eil1100RIle: 14.3%. Hagedorn Partnenhip owns 41.5% of lXITIITD'I;
ort'. & or., 44.8% (ild. Ihns
of Hagedcm Ptrshp.) (1,00 Proxy).
Chlnnan, CEO & President Ch;ds N. E*ge'. Inc:orporaI8d:
Ohio. Addnss: 41 South HQh St., SUM 3500, Cokmtus, OH
43215. Tel.: 614-719-5500. Ir!tIlmIIl: www.saJtta:ompIny.am

Scotts Company likely ended fiscal


2000 on a positive note. (Year ended
September 30th.) Compared with the subpar ~rfonnance
during the seasonally
slow ourth fiscal quarter last year, we are
looking for the company's bottom line to
rebound somewhat. We are optimist:Jc
about its lower level of marketing expense,
which was dedicated to promoting acqutred brands during the year-ago period,
and Scotts' lower intere~t expense now
that it has been able to reduce long-term
debt modestly. Additionally. integration of
those businesses that the comp~
bought
last year is further along, whi
should
lead to operating-margin
improvement
over the last half of fiscal 2000. (One
major difference that subscribers should
note is the dramat:Jc change in shares outstanding. Although It would appear that
this upswing in sharecount would impact
the bottom line, the company's retirement
of its oonverttble debt lowered interest expense markedly, offsetting the rise in the
number of shares.) In all, Sootts Ukely
Ibnited its fourth-quarter bottom-line loss,
leading to an 8% earnings advance for f"JscaI 2000.

Cost--cutting Initiatives oUght to spur


better share-net growth in fiscal 200L
Scotts'
consolidation
of Its overseas
fadUtJes should lead to modest ma~n upansion. The company also seems l' ely to
continue to lower its debt burden in the
months ahead.
Longtenn
profits will likely get a
boost from the companys development of Its ]awn~ce
5egJDeDt. TIlls
division remains in its infant stage, but it
may well produce solid bottom-line rontrtbutions, thanks to the relatively wide profit margins it generates. Indeed, a Smtts
board member is the former CEO of a
lawn-service provider that generated operating margins at least 500 basis points
wider than Smtts' companywide perfonnance. TIrls is a relatively fragmented Industry too, wlrlch suggests the company
might play an aetJve role in the acquisition
market to gain a larger foothold.
These neutrally
ranked shares offer
appealt::/.
long-tenn
appreciation
potend
thanks to Smtts' prospects for
double-digit
earnings growth
out to
2003--2005.
AdamM Ware
October 13. 2000

..
..
..

..
..
..

..

..
..

..

..

..
..

..

..
..

..

..

..
..

..

..

..

"X

..

..
..

..

..

..

..

CAPITAL STRUCTURE I' of 7/tJDG

350.'

..

..
..

3881
1.4.31

..

..

..

116
11.03
1 .
21.8
1.46

..

.96

..

10.07

"
"MF

..

..

04.4,

..'"

...

,'''

"""pOth.r
Cumlnt

"....""..

)
Sales
''Cash Flow"

Eami1gs
Dividends
Book Value
Fiscal

Pni

..
..

62~%

259.1

1n.O

..

504.8

..

Est"d '97.'I!il
".

Pal

11Yn.
18.0%
20.0%

..

,....

140.8
231.9

Uab.

ANNUAL RATES

nn.

23.0%
22.0%
17.0%

2.'"
8.5"

..

10.5%

12.5"

Ni'
13.8%
Fo'

QUARTalLYSALfS~oAj'

1: rw~P.r.MlrPer.Jun.Per.
1!1!l1
1!196
1199
2ODO

FIKlI

SepP.r.
155.'
191.1
246.2

Y.r

100.2 346.2 299.0


124.8 430.1 361.0
184.4 631.5 586.2
'11.5
11JJ.1 596.3
fSS
2rJS
ZJI
7:JS
F1KoJ
EARtnt;S PER SHARE A Ii!
OK.Per,lIr,PII',Jun.Per.
SepPer.
1!1!l1 d.45
d.32
1.30
1.00
d.42
t!l!l8
d.34
1.10
.80
tl99
d.68
1.81
1.35 dUll
2ODO d1.28
d.C
2.18
1.18
2081 dUO
d.611
UO
1DIl
llIJARTalLYO_PAm
CsIondu
M.r.31 Jun.30 S.n.3O Dec:,31
1996
1!1!l7
NO CASH OMOENOS
1999
88NG PAIl

au

l:

Nil

lID

".1

....

1989
1990
~991"5
11.31
15.13
'V3
.13
.44
.76
d.03
d.38
.01

..
..

....

'II "

.Jffiill

.....

1M)

~-- ,

Insider Decisions

41.6
26.0

~IR25%
Itum
(~1l'% ..
M
+8.5%,
14%

....

nDl9lka3D1

2Q03.ll5 P'OJECTIONS
Price

1 00

900.8
1113.0
1648.3

llD1J
'ITS
Fo'

I.

2080

lA'B FISCaI)'8ill"
endI sept. 30th.
Pnn.
~h
1997, dil
tgI.

ihII'8fal'l8r,

ExcL un. bsses; 98, $0.04; '99, $0.32; nonIOC.gsNI(..... I' '89, 10.1'; ~1, $D.21; '92.
c ZlIXL'MIe I..iIe
.
Inc. AI
lHE PUBLlStER~ ~PONSlIl~"'Y
flllIIII]' be n:pnIUetL.m 1;1 ~

1.59
1.62
2Z7

US
1611
Ful

Y.r

SC.03;"93, ($0.67); '1M, ($0.05); '95, $0.28; '96,


~51~
'98, ($O.65). Next egs. rpl dUll IatII
Di. .. : '97, 51.35;

(C) ,___

"" 1833.1 m_,

..

69.1

<W.8%

41.0"

'1%
274.8
893.6
443.3

4.2ll
25il
11
J15
Ull
2Il..l"

B.n.

15.6%

II

..

'1'"
WI
75.

6112

$45.311s!11re. (OlIn mlDns.


(E) ~
~ ~ add to tDtaI.aftIr 1997 due
tochangllSmiltl!lf'ln I __
d~
1Q 10040.

F'"
___
& ~
fnn1 _
tIdieWlIIlo be rfiIae ...... pwidelI .......
~
ERRORSOROMISSIONS
HERE".TIB~
is skIy fa' wtnabIr"s -.
_ caii.U .... ft~
pilBl---= II" dIB bm. ar'"
b glftl~ ar .......
*'J pi*lII ar *W'k pIIbIicIlImI. ~

ft5eI'IlIl.

ill..,

.-,
Y.,

"""

..

"....

'"

...

.0

27.05

:IS."

Avg Ann
......
PIE_
AV; Ann'l Dlv'd YMId

-(~.
"""

11.'
'.2D
Nil

... -~=.I

1115

~M'"

75..

"'1.1'1
4A
175
76/1
485

NIt 1'1011
IncorMTuRD
NltI'loIlM....
top, (lnl)

w_.
~.;:::-"

&hr. .

(lnMl

lniIi

U" Rum
lUll .......

CI1Totar Cip"
Shr.E .....
11.11 Rellined to Com q
IIiI AI DlY'd. to Nit Prof

CamPl~

Finandll Shngth

Stock'a rie. Stablltty


Price GrawttI ~

2175
15D%
.0Il
121
41.11
5Sll
.",

11
715
1U"
15Sll
15'"
Nil

B
70
55

Uid.

I15e~O pIfl
ar pOllIc1

I "

: I I:

I I'

SEQUA4 CORP. 'A' NYSESQAA


I n.5 ~.oo

lWlUNBS

Rli!oelIfROO

High,:
Low:

3 NN 7mso
3 RIi.ed lQ'2MKl

SAFETY

TECHNICAL

.......

66.1

"'-8

51.0
29.0

LEGENDS

32. ,
21.9

39.8

18.0

67.9

46.5
29.5

75.9

72.8
44.0

Target Price Range


2003 2004 2005

:lO.'

,,,

S.5I~91r"'p5ll
Pra Sftngll

100

80

~t1_~,!lCnU:ln

200345 PROJECTONO

. ' .. '. .

AniiiTcIIII

.. ,

-.

RebIm

Gain

'"
"I\.

....
95 (~17o%'
LtM'
65
1+85%"1 "''''
17%
Insider Dec~lon.

o J F A
.. ...,
001000000
0,-.001000000
.. SIll

Nil

35 ~ro 21.7 (~:':jtnl~~


1.60 ~
....,
"'.5
'7.e
36.' ....

. -".' R:;*"

BETA .70 /1.oo.MlfileI)

Price

58.6

IIifCEIII
IPRlCf

50
50

"

'I

40

:lO

"

"
20

f--+---+--j------'o-~_+=----~-__c_-7~"_c-__,_--_+----+-_+-_+15

J A

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

""
.....

.".'no.
..,.

.33.3

1!l.4

-21.1

25.2

51.1

D7.S

.. TOT. RI:'T1JRN tIIlO


1 yr.
3 yr.
Syr.

..

7.5
-

19M 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989


112.04 113.21 34.33 105.91 166.08 199.06
6.02 ~.34
3.32
9.93 13.76 1~.23
3.36
1.16
314
5.42
6.31
5.!15

~..
22.91

5.78
24.61

1..,
55.31

,.~
59.92

9.59
64.n

1.19

1.,

82
.76
1.8%

lu."

1O.Il2 10."

NMf
NMF
1.4%

19.5
1.32
.8%

1,-"
16.10 n",
7029
68.43 n.O

13.4

...

!I.~

.2.2
.92
.llI'

1l.9
1.63
.9%

9.9
.82

.90
.8%

1.0%

NOF
1.1%

!I~

26.2
1.59
1.5%

1.96
5!j.14

8.00
54.14

5.IT
55.77

1I.b:!

!I.1l1

!I.1l1

..
.

"
,.

..
,.

l.QIJ,

-.

1691.0
7.41

CA.PITA.ltmlUCTURE b of 6'3IIGO

2211.D 1818.8 1868.3

Total DlbI 5572. 1 mil. DIlllIn 5 V,. $80.0 mil


IT Debt $569.6 mil.
IT luterat $52.0 mill
Ind. $5.3 mill cap. 1s8s. (l T inlenlst 1NfT18d: 1.&;
IotIl i7tl!fesI Q)Vllfage: 1.7:r)
145.3% r:I c.p"
laues UnCllpll.lDd Annuall8fltala $202 mil
'enston UaIll.IMy ~
PIIIStoek517.2~
PfdDlY"d$2.0ml.
413,010 Ihs. 1M W'JDne YOt9) $5 cum., can. sI:
$100,801. r:v.
1.32 can. 1M.
(1.4% ciCap1)
Common Stock 10,316,483 slIs. (52.3% of Cap'~
(Ind. 3,329,180 Ihs. 'B' Ilk., ea. w/1D votes)

111\
100..9
32.7
55.51
15\
192.I
1100.1
116.~
3.71

11.81
1041
15.0
55.0\
.8,
315.~
825.5
696.6
3.3'

13.0\
111.8
17.9
53.4%
1.0'
329.0
693.0
651.1
4.0\

~.6'

21'

2.1'

NOF

1.01

1.5%
018'

NMF
NMF

mo

Ca"~

3.n.

MARKT CAP; $450 million (Small Cap)


CURRENT POSrTON

Receivab1e5
Inventory (FIFO)
Other .
CUlTllni Assets
Acds Payable
Debt Due

ANNUAL RAtES
afl:hlngl(perlti)

C.~

elide,

1917
'991

IUD

14.5e

,".4 ..., .. ~_
1.14- _~
,.

A,vgAnnHltv'dYIIkI

811tJ1W)

1595.1

1BD2.4 1699.5

10.7%
85.8
19.6
53.4%
11%
329.1
508.7
590.4
4.0\
3.3'
2..9%
1610

10.8% 10.1% ,1.5% 1t.S'S


89.3
871
.(11
J2.(II DlprKldonISraIl)
28.7 21.9
18.0 2408 NIIPro!l~
40.5' 40.7\ .5ll..ft .... n IncomI To Ratt
1.6"
1.3% 1.1% '~NIIProIl....,
318.0 319.6
31.
:IS W_,
c.p, 1""91)
5l1J.1
569.9
m m long71Wn101b1($nri1'
605b
668.9
815
... Sh,.-EquIty($nil)
4.5% 3.a% J..s%
4..n R..... llII 70lIlCIp'I
~.3'
3.3'
2.5% 15% R_lIIShr.EIl\IIIY
4.1% 3.0% u"
".0% FtltlinldloConEq
8\
9%
'''''
'" AI DiY'dl1o IW Prof

329.8

694.1

Pal &fd'l7.'11
SYn..
"''13-'15

S%
5.0%
~5%

3.5"
6.5"
19.5"
NMF
....~

Q\IAR1BILY
SAW (1111.)

Full

1I1z.3' Jun.: SeD" Dec:.31


Y.. ,
3713 393.6 391.3 431.0 1595.1
439.9 457.6 459.0 415.9 lB02.~

208l

1m

GO

EARHlNGSPERSHAREA

elHlaT 1IIr.31 JUJ:I.30 ~~-

Full

19!11

.08

.38

.59

1191

.43

.65

.95

Dtc.31
.81
.65

1!11!1
2lIIIO
2001

.41
.38
A7

.83
.47
..

.42

.25

.35
.3Z
.5Il
.411
QUARTERLYDIVIJENDSPAII
Mar.31 JUD.30 5'1130 Dtc.31

t9!6

1197
NOCASH
DIVIDENDS
~:
BBNG
PAID
2ODO
(~I PrWnaryags. ~
199&,thenld!lr
diIui!d. E:rd. 00InC. galllS (lasses): '84, (13t!1;
'85, ~~
'86, $16.66; '87, (S1.4n; 'lIB, (27"t,

Vur
1.66
~58
1.91

t.41l

2.1,
Ful
Vur

1In:l pri'rtilg ~),

specgtly

ctl&rnilllls,

aum 1igtIBs, and

We've reduced our sales estimates for


Sequa., but our forecasts for share
ear,tings haven't been affected much.
Sales are being reduced by the tnmsfer of
a number of Wlits to joint venb.1reS in
whJch the company usually has about a
onehalf interest.
As a result. under
GAAP, the transferred operations' figures
are removed from the company's books.
with Sequa's share of the bou<nn line ineluded as equity in earnings.
The important ChromalJoy Gas 'lUrbines unit faces differing demand patterns In its main markets. Sates to
OEMs are weak, reflecting softening
demand for new jet engines and global
outsourcing programs by the engine mak
ers. On the other hand. the aftermarket
repair business is quite strong. reflecting
long rontracts with many airlines. In addlt1oo, an award from the USAF is bringing
in a good deal of new business.
Sequa is putting considerabJe
capital
and effort into its joint ventures (JV).
To tllustrate this ongoing program, at the
end of December, Its investment in JVs totsled 542.4 million, and at June 30th. the
figure had risen to $64.7 million. even In-

'89'14~~

'91, ($2.26): '92, (S3.~; '93, 65f;:


'94, 11't. '95, 83; '98, $3.43: "99. 30,. Next
eanilgs ~
d. mi:l-Nov.

(Blind.

m.ng.ln

r..-.e

---=

...

~.:..

.. ,

11M
12.01
10G
,1.1
G."
1ft
Gl
fM

U/I
iDl
, ....

1..5%
14'

eluding a modest loss for the first six


months. One new venture was started
June 1st. in which the company and
Siemens Westinghouse Power are working
to support Siemens' industrial gas turbInes around the globe. Just two weeks
later, a JV was fanned with a UAE partner that will provide services to turbines
throughout the Middle East. Then, In August. two Ns were fonned with Rolls
Royce to supply services fur Rolls' engines.
Translation
is trimming both profits
and net worth. The euro's we-Bkness is
htming sales from the UK to the Contlnent, and the dollar's strength is reducIng the value of overseas investments,
which resulted in an accumulated trans1ation loss on the balance sheet of 532 milUon at June's end.
Sequa shares have wide 3- to 5-year
capital.gains
potential,
OEM business,
now being last. should be stabilized by
2003-2005, and the growth in other market would be unmasked. SdU, the stock is
ranked to underperfonn the year..mead
market. and we are concerned about a pos_
sible charge due to a bankru.pt customer.
Mortan L. Siegel
November 3. 2000

'99: $314.3, $3O.3DIsti. Ind.

'IIlhauI ~

Company's Fnallcal8nngttl
Stocll'. Price Stabii1y
Price GrutrtfI

EafJllnp

rI My kiId. __
ilermlUR.ftopllt

II' pullEI.

eIllcIrIDt""'" ~
~

1.1J/l

August 1991. Sold KoIsmIn, December 1995. 1999 depredatDn


1iI1riI: 7.5Y.. Has 11,050 employees, 2,400 shllreholden.
N.E.
AIBxands" IXlfd'OIs 53%, T1Ie Gat-Ii Group has ~
rI vatDt1
paws (4100 praxy). ChlIirman & CEO: NonniIfI E. AIlw.nd&r. II'ICCI
pcr.ded: lllllil:win. Addrws: 200 Pan Aye., NY, N8w Yort 10166.

iICDJIl'lLllat8d etn-.cy lass: 6'3MlO, $32.1 mil.


Ie)
In rnilbns.
D) ln1lrins based an1uI-yq' dIIu1IId shares.

o ZUllI. Valle lile I'IdJisIliM:L Inc. HI riqIQ nssnd. rmllli ....


1 is IIbIined IIUfII saurm t*wd ID be
IIId is
TH Pl8JStt:R
flJT RE!PONSlnElORNl'f
ERRORS ORClItiSIOHSHREIlI.1lBpRaaIionis
*i:IJ Ii::r ~51Ml.
rI 118)' be ~
5lI:nIl II' nrSIiM:I ill .., pIDlld.
II' lIII!f bin. II' 1,IMIIb' !IftI1IinJ II' ..,....,
." ,lI'nI5I

1225
74.51
11.00
".8

~II.

R_PIERdo

r-

'onnon.
l/An.',"".... ;

300.7

5%

rs

. 7

11.4' :",,:1Sl-""'9'-U1
5.f.5I' Book YalulPIl"Ih II

146.6 men's fonnal 1ItIi'e. Discontinued di'lisi:Jns tha1 pmvided tllCllnical


services, 181M equiprr.-ll, end opnted b8rgfJ & tanker h i'I Tekrphone: 212986-5500.1ntern&twww.l8qua.com.
2.S
180.7 r.,;;-;:-'---;--'-'-;-'----'--;---"o---;---:--.,-'--;:-----;-;-;--;:-'-;--;;,--;-,-,

25.2
660.3

1699.5
1/11lil

taletldlr

11."

129.2
5.3
166.2

Pal
11Tn..

GO

.1.75

138.0

1.5%
-10.0%

1.78

21'
m
67.3 BUSIlIESS: SeqIl8 CorponJtion mams 881tlspace products (ps
2S4,8
tutline engine components 8I1d roc\8I propulsim sysWns), ma344.1 chinMy Bnl rn8IaI matngs (can-fonning and deca'arti'lg equtmenl
27.9

&I3CWO

1!11!1 401.3 433.2 418.3 44H


2lIIIO 421.8 441.0 3TS
3Sl2
tal-

NOF

25~
1.35

9.78
62.84

682
271.7
3152

5%

"Cash FkJw"
Earni1ps
Dividends
BCXlkValue

1 .

30.9

10.71
91.6
9.6
74.8%
.7"*
309.~
531.9
590.8
3.1"
1.6'
1.1'"
3310

9.91
62.41

1'"

337.9

Sties

d101
.
NMF
185.1
6201.f
515.8
NMF

!I.W

N..

14104.1 1$.D

10.1% 11.6%
104.0
96.5
([24.1
.6

NMF
NMF

282.9 296b
586.6 563.2
566.5 510.6
.3, 2.4%
N/olF
.1\
N'-!F NMF
NMF NMF

8.96
57.45

84.9
330.9
262.8
37.3

8.7
...l!.1.:?:

CurT1lnt Liab.

110.1

1419.6

5.01
57.08

1198

7'i5.9

other

!I.:r.J

N.,

'.60
64.77

B
55
40
15

,.,.imftCII
P...cKctabllty
I '.

II:

II.

SIGMAALDRICH
TIIt1Jf1ESS
SAfm
TECllNICAL
BElA ~

3 RaRlll1t241lJl
3 _~""'"
2 "'" IlM1l

(l.DO.

l'!'

...,
:::.-

50
35

14.9

10.9

29.6
20.9

26.8
13.9

29.0

27_6

25.9

22.3

15;0

16,3

~'"

_~lft't'sWn

l!..."

I_.. .-.. ....


....
......
:::.
,..~rrt

74
153 aha'

'63

,
11.1'
..
..

"
..

1984
1985
1988
1986
1987
1.73
~19
3.80
2.57
3.lll
j;4
.35
.70
.28
. 2
~7
.43
23
.2B
.15
.08
.04
.95
.06
.OT
.16
.36
.11
.36
11
2.47
1.25
1.29
1.99
1.58
104l11>
9871
19]
19.8
16.
24,4
25.7
1.53
1.57
1.64
1.65
tn
1.2'>
1.0%
.7%
.7%
.7%

"

..

..

.. ..

13.1%

1.%

15\

''''

c.~~

54.9
172..7
635

""""

''Cash Flow"
Eami'lgs
Dividends

Book Value

,.....
,.
Co\.

endar

1197
1191
2001

ea.

....
1997

1999
2001

ea.,

1996
1997
1991
1999

1:).:00.1

12M

""'"!2f:5

42.0
20.8
42.'

109.1
134.9

SO.4
294.4

105.1:1

Pal

..... NUALRATES

.....
(pot"',
5.101

408.'
""""f'7'4:'6

30.6
".3

CurTent lJab.

196.9

430.0
55.0

.64.0

CUlI1ut Assets
Acds Payable
o.btDue

39.6

43.8
193.5

2. 3
2295

Receivables
~enIory (UFO)

1GYrL
11.5"
12..5'1.
11.5%
13.0%
16.5%

p.t
SfIL

..""

Esl'd '87'11

""''IS
1a.~

....""""

7.5ll

95%
9.0'1.
13.0'1.
1. 0'1.

5.0"

1116,

15.5%

'4%

1.%

v.,

6/89; the Supela:l c~

IOn rJ Rotwn and Haas fn:rn

5,93;

AW Products Company fmm MI3.

II ZIXIlI. YKiIl tile ~


TliEP\.I8USH[RISNJTR
Ii i
be
..

v.,

S:;:;'-

diviand Cide

iii.
1.%

-,

""1,1"111

15.6"

,.%

13 . "

15%

1995
1996
9.62 10.34
1.93
1.73
1.46
1.32
.19
23
.60
.94
617
9.42
99.75 1100.1M
16.8
16.9
1.18
tt2
.8%
9%
959.8 1034.6
25.1%
26.7'
.52
409
131.7 141.9
35~% 35l%
13.7% 1UI
5DZ.D S56J
13.8
3l
824.7 942J
15.8%

1997
1123
W
1.62
.2fi
1.06
10.56
100."
199
1.15

.8%
1m.l
26.8%
48.1
166.1
34J%
14.1'

51J71
.6
'll6OJ
15.7'
15.7'
132%

16%

SigmaAJdrlch continues to undergo


fairly major changes.
a' I.... ' by this
relatively staid company's standards. Over
the past twelve months. free cash has been
used to
back almost 25 mUllon shares.
(Another
ve-mllllon share buyback has
recently been authorized) arx:t the total
debt-'<H:apl'a1 le""l has risen to 1996.from
zero. Capi'a1 spending remains fairly high
as the company puts the finishing toudles
on tts new 555 million research center in
St. Lows. In addition., a significant nurnber of sales people and researchers have
been taken on In the hopes of beefing up
annual sales growth at the Life Sciences
segment (60% of total sales) to 10%, from
6%-8%. Lastly. the more progressive CEO.
David Harvey, w:I.11 be made chairman at
yearend, as long-tlme leader. 11101'11&
Cori,
steps down .
All this. however. doesn't necessarUy
mean a better operating perfonnance.
On the contrary, were It not Cor the very
a~tve
sharebuyback. p~am,
our
2
share-net estimate wo OO't have
eclipsed the 1998 per-share tally. The company's newly acquired debt wiU need servicing, and we think product price hikes

bUl

Exd .........

32

2<
20

... .....

"":-r.: j:'' ' ' '

nos

'Y'.
3Y'.
SY'.

""::

'259.'

Of ~

12

1'Il1O
.A

19.1

..

...-

"" I=:::'"
O<pod=.,
"'.~"'"'"
,.. ... "';B~~.\.. ,

,."'"

'0"
"K

"" ""

www.sillLan'Iig;IId.

(averagJng 4% In 2001, versus 3% tills


year) are Qverly ambttIous, given the
weakening domestic economy. Furthermore, we think CQSlS assoclated with
re'ainlng more employees and ge'ling the
IntelTlet business up and running, along
with higher R&D spending. will combine
pressure margins. DUut!on .of around
five pennies a share frmn recent acqwstlions (F\r.;' Medical and Amelung) won',
help either. All told, we look for share net
of only $1.75 In ZOOI.
Annual
share-net
growth through
2003-2005
will likely 'I~t
rates. Our proJecdons omit
ac
quisttion activity. whidl may occur. The
d~ressed
equity marl<elS and slowing
G P should make it a lltde easier for
SIAL to find potenUalla;,rrofttable acqulsl
Hans at reasonable se
g prices.. It is tmperaUve the company continue to supply a
strong flow of new ~uets
In the Ufe
Sclences segment
cularly in the
hwnane genome area for profit growth to
match rates of the past. nus stock looks
close to being fuUy valued. Long-tenn
capital jains potential Is minimaL
Jeremy . Butler
December22, 2(}()()

'0

Fib. 25. ,_

"-

00.7
03.'
1998
1999
2000
2001 I CVALULIIEPIll, IIC. 1B45
11.87
14.25
1115 5Ita pIl' III ,.
1029
lUS
"" oil
175 CuII_
217
U5
~1'
1J5
1.64
1.47
1.73
1.75 EamingI pII" lib
:w
.29
.11
.28
. DlY'GI Dld'dplr sf! c
.JS
1.15 CIp'~8
1.10
.91
-:15
1M
"" ..
1~09
1~48
11.15
11.53 B'" YIIuo "" oil
'1111
nlIII]f --mil
1
n 5hlOUWg.
a.
19.8
209
AYII Mill' Pn: RDo
1.09
111
R_PlERrio
US
;;; ~ Avg
.9%
.6%
Ann' Eh'cI YIIkI
1194.3 1037.9
1115
26.6% 26."
Z2.D% 20.~
ZU"
61.8
66.9
0..
09.a
7..
125 NotPn>1t
166.3 148.6
131
'55
Inant Tu RIll
U.~
31.-4' 27.'%
13.9%
14.3\ 1.2.'% 111" ,.."Prvfil .....
11.zll
.Q5
... 0
5303
SIIII
-8
CIp'(Iooil)
1..
.2
281

. $rII
1216 .
11/1
Ii. 9lr.
11..
11.8% 1l5ll
tU~ RilUncmTlMICIip'
lZ.J'Jl
13.7"
R......
SIr. E.....
13.7% 11.8% 1~J'Jl 1=
9 . % lZ.D%
11.3%
'2.J'Jl R.tIIMd kl Cen Eq
17%
20%
AI DlY'dl to ... Pr'CII
1711
eesses. Sales kl foreign custclnln in about 55'10 d '99 ...... Has
aboul: 57,6110 IIITIPbyees. 011'. aTW:Idi'. own 1.4% ci Shs.; Wellngton
ManagemRl1t, 10.5'4; State Fam Mutual AuDnobiIlil, 9.7%; A
a.ts", 5.8" (3iOO proxy}. ChaiRlln: TaJ'I CDri. Prasidellt I CEO:
Oavil Harvey. Inc.: DE. Adm".: 3050 Spnx:e St. St lDuiI, MO

""..........

edoptbn or FAS 108 and 109: '93, 11). d.tes: Jan. 2, Mar. 15, June 17, Sept1S.
Next 8iJ1l~S Plport due IIiIt8 JI!In.
(0) In mlms, ad)Js'8d b sid: spits.
(CI Next djy d meeting about Feb. 15. Goes Ill(
reerted. FIdIJI/ ......
is olt-.n fnIrIl __
~"be
rdiIllIe l1li IS fAr*d ~
~
d ~

AI ~
SIBlE ORIMYERRORSOROMlSSlOHSH[R[lN.lll&~G'iftlyIa'~-.non~irtemIlIlI5e.
a.--Med".,.
pIi'llN. ~
cr _
bIl\, crllilllllar ~
II" -....,

....

.....
.. .... "--

'" TOT. RETURN

BUSWESS: Sigma-.tJ:iri:h Corp. develops, manur~,


1100disIJibIMs a Wide
or bioctIfITlialls, organic dJemi::ats,
d1rrJrnstography products and dilgnon:: 188gents. The C011PMIY
dAi!:rlltlls fl'Q8 !han 85,000 pzxIc/dI in O'W 160 aurhl!!s. n..
products are used in R&D in unw.rsmes and l'Idustry, in the ditgnosis rJ disease, and lIS speciily cherricals for manullldJ.mg pro- 63103: Tal: 314-nl-5765.1nt8mIlt

QUARTBlLYSAW II"j
Full
1 .. .31 J . 30 s~- Dec.3!
279.1 27B.6 2lI6.0 283.' 1127.1
306.2 2!U.6 300. 2!I3.1 1191.3
272.7 252.B 260.3 252.1 1037.9
2B4.0 267.8 283 . Z54J 107.
1115
Z7I
ZID
ZID
115
EARNlIlGSPERSHIRE
Full
1".31 J .3O
Dec.31
.40
1.62
.40
.43
.41
.39
1.64
..1
.39
.32
1.47
.36
.36
.41
I.ll
AS
.45
. 2
.45
175
M
.45
.45
QUARlERLYOIVll_PAIl
C
F.'
1Ia,.31 JUI.3O Sep.3O Dac.31
.11
.22
.D1i5
.D1i5 ..125
15
.063
.063 ..
_.
.1.
.07
16
.07
.145
19
.073
.073 ..
..
.155
.076
.076
... __
, ... C""', "G. (8' 0 ..........

v.,

16.11

......'"

- - - -- - --

MARKET CAP: $2.9 billion (Mid CAp)

."

Ii3GOIlI

..

Itl

12.D

15.7'
15.7'
13.3\

...

1'

11111

Price Range

2003 2004 2005


100

"
12

..

16.0ll

111'

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
5.33
5.12
6.57
H2
8.54
II
$
1.07
115
1.40
U7
.65
.n .eo .96 1.06 1.11
.09
.11
.12
.13
.17
.'5
.52
.33
.2fi
.31
.75
.73
3Jl2
3.11
. 43
5.14
5.93
7Jl2
99.1l6 99.J2 99.'9
99.55 99.61 99.66
19~
20.6
25.8
~9
2'.6
18~
1.48
1.53
1.58
1.56
1.15
111
n .7% .6% .5% .6% .8%
CAprrAl STRUCTURE u cf tI3OI'110
529.1 569.4 654 .
8511
739.'
Total Debt $209.2 mil. Due in 5 Y,. S109.1 mi.
26.9% 269% 27.7' 17.1% 2. 7%
LTDebt$100.1 mil.
LT IIda1'nt $8.5 mill
26.1
289
325
24."
"'.7
(10"" rJ cap'l)
71.3
79.6
9S~ 1071 110.3
Pen,loa 1I.b111tyNone
351% 35.6% 351% 35.3% 351%
LA.... , UlIQpitlliDd
Annuall&nti1lls $15.1 IT'lL
13.5" 13.5' '4.61 '4.5% 110ll
247.7
3201
339.4 39TJ
34"
Prd Sid None
10.8
69.3
18.1
17.3
1. 5
368~ 441.0
511.B
591.1
699.5
161" 161\ 181" 17.7" 15.5"
(90% d cap'!)
Carnmoo Sl.ock 75,635,184 Jl!s.
as of 1l11JWOO
19.3%
18.1\
16.7% 18.1% lSl%
CURRENT POSrrlON

r.rget

40.9
20.2

1,1

.....

4.'
1989

52119

53579

35.3
2~S

25.B

_,,'11,.

Jf.".JJAS
014 2 1 1 0 0 3 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional Decisions

42.8

2-1or'

Rnan

GaIn

41.1
2B9

32.1
23.8

2.. 1 5j:II '''1

Inskl.r Decisions

spa

MMtII)

~';"~l
.10% '0%
1%

17.~
12.5

raiinl

LEGENDS
16.0 I ~'91 fIlM" P 5h
. RelIlIr~ Pn:r Slrs'tglh
2-fu-l
1/11

2OQ345 PROJE~NS
Ann, TaW
PriI2

High,;

low:

'141 )lfELA

W.dIJ
If RATIO. 1 54 OIV'D
YlD
0.9%
38 PfRATIO 226e

j:ECOO
PRICE

NDQ-S~L

pIIbbIim.

__

II"

ComP.1.aF.... clal.......

Stock's rice Stability


Price Growttl hrailUnce
E.... lngs Prwdiictabilly

UId.
~
pudud.

I'.

70
25
90
.11:

11-,

SPACELABS MED, INC

-,-

TII[UNESS

SAfETY

3 N!'IIYlY.ll

30.8
19.8

14 p~ NMF
AATIO

28.8
18.5

26.8
19.8

29.1
22-3

29.0
19.0

c;.m

Price

Low

18
fnskler Dee.ions

oc:;~

ReAM PrEe SbmgII

...

, I'KIrDal

"

I II.

:~:.,

69~

Perc.rrt

an,..

2S
21

"85 ",.
Medical was founded

tl1lded

,...

eo........
Othe'

Cunnt As.s8bi
Acds Payable
DeblDuo

L1ab.

...

2001

ea.
end.r
1997
1191
1199

2001
Ca.

endlr
1198
1997
tl9l
t899

"""'"
....

1.'
2.'
82.8
85.'
65.9
74.0
29.7
30.5
18[5 ---:;gfJ
23.1
2.2.2
4.0
3.'
29.5
33.'
55.7
".9

ANNUALRATES Put
"'s_
..... IPo' .. 1 11Yn.
5.5%
"Cash FIaw"
1.0%
Eamngs
-4.5%
.
Dividends
Book Value

..

5.0"

35.7
1.7

".3

..

4.5"
10.5"
2.5"

2.0'

NI

1.5"
Full
TOI7
265.3

27'.2

300.2
2Sll

EARNINGSPER SlIME'

Full

l.r.Per Jun.Per Sep.Plr DeeP,


.31
.31
.33
.29
d.50
d.46
.le
.23
.32
.19
.27
.26
1111
d.32
d.33
.01
~
.05
QUARTERlY
DMlENDSPAID
Mlr.3f Jun.30 SeD.30 o.c.Jf

YOl7

"I. ",.

NO CASH DMOENOS
BElNGPAIIJ

(At Oib*l urnngs. Pnn.-y thlOllll'h1998.

..

..

..

..

..

248.0 266.3
112'
12.6'
6.6
9.'
11.9
15.'
37." 31.'% 36.]1;
7.9'1
4.5"
6.1'
155.1 131.1 120.6
143
13.5
66.8
204.1 196.3 164.9
7.4% 5.6%
9.4"
12%
9-"
U'lt
7.711 7.'"

7.7'

..

..

..

BUSINESS: SpBcelabs Medical, Inc. develops, manuflldins, m.-

Est'd'l7'11
..... '15
5T"-g.O%

..

..

262.8
1'.6'
63
20.1

ksb, and Slll'Yic::e$ poItienl-monilomll


and clilli:;aHlfonnation systerns products b IJS8 in
siI1J.iorrs. Also seb iImbuIIdDry monlori'lg systams. Mart.aIS through combWli!lionor a
di'act U.M organilabl and i1dependenl diAiluas loca1ed in
lMII" 70 countries. Spun oft' mincdy in'Ilre$I in PHAMIS,Inc. in De-

Put

-20.0%

..

..

2472
"2'
6.6
19.1
31.4'
7.]1;
143.1
112
185.4
9.8"
W.3'
10..3'10

3.'

----.!!

1.2'
d.OI
1.04
.. 7S
.05
Full

ru,

.... -

'" TOT. RETURN 101110

2000
1997
1998
1999
2001
1994
199.
1996
21.1/)
25.1S
24.D3 25.23
2M3
29.13 31.61
23.45
.Je
2.69
.46
2.OS
US
2.63
HI
2.25
.. 7S
1.78
1.86
1.46
d.57
1.04
.05
12'
..
..
..
.. iii
..
iii
"
.411
t.42
1.64
1..
.89
.66
.sa
1.01
19.39 19.97 11.42 17.10 11.B8
l6.JIJ IUd
17.58
10.>3
9."
0."
9."
'.50
'.'7
.,
16.0
12.9
13.6
15.7
17.1
UM
.. .92
.9,
.66
.96
1.02

7...
312

180.4

QIWlTBllY SAlES 11"'1


lar.Per Jun.Per Sep.Per DeePe
74.9
6J.a
62.1
65.3
74.2
66.5
66.0
67.5
70.3
81.1
73.8
75.0
61.6
65.a
57.'
65:'
Ud
65:d
/D.d
711

ame.k:n

Spacelabs Medical received another


buyout offer from Cardiac Science.
Last week, Cardiac Science offered to purchase all of the outstanding stock.of Spacelabs for $15 per share. or a 13% premium
to the prior day's closlng price. The $143
mUllon proposal, which may be comprised
of cash and/or stock. follows an attempt
earlier this fall to buy Spacelabs. Cardiac
Sciences has bought about 3.4% of SLMD
stock and also nominated six candidates to
Spacelabs' board. BUl SLMD management
has not issued a response to the offer.
A deal may be able to resurrect
the
poor operating
perlonuance
of late.
By Joinlng SLMD's patient monltoring
devices with Its existing defibrillation
equJpment. CardJac hopes the improved offerin~ would enhance SlMD's weaker
competitive position in the market. Management would also concentra.te its efforts
on cardiac patient monltoring. StUl. our
estimates do not reflect the effect of a deal.
Meanwhile. the return to profitability
in the most recent quarter does not
mean that SLMD is out of the woods.
A reduced cost StruClure, higher foreign
sales. and increased volumes of hlgher-

J.nullf)'.

EJckIdes I1Ollr'Ill3mg gails (losses) iI '92, (BJ In mlions.


~3j); '94, (13); '95, 113.t '96, ($121); '97,
.31; '98, 1l6. Nut -.nilcls report due tilIte
C zmD. v.-lne ~~5
resawal. 1"'1IIIIb1
is ca.1ined frunI
THEf'laISI-I:RISNJl
fA I .., IR .......

..

"

""
""'"
'~.
'~.
'~."2

~rancilll

5I;UIa5 ~

Rf
ORAHYfRRORSOROMISSlOHSHRllN.
ThiI.~issft:lJ"
!bll:l1I" hnIII*d illIIJ' ....
~
II" lIlh!IlIq II" Il!oef b!Bl5llillt
0(

be"'"
~_._~

ID
~..,

II1IIis

..

..

2742

3002
10.1'
la.O
9.8
d5.4
9.6
.. 362'
NMF 3.3"
120.6 136.0
65.1
66.1
161.0
169.9
NMF 5.1%
NlIF
NMF 5.8%

."

..

p.wed ...

14.8

,0.0
104.8

C VALUE LJrEPUIl 1tC. aus


salpttsh
JL1S
"Cuh Flow" per Ih
2.75
Ud
E-ninll' per III A
D1v'd,OKI'dJ*sh
iii
C'd'i Sponding ,",oil
.5d
BootlYaIu .-1Ih
17.'5

,...
....,,,..,.:: ...~.-

,.W

amliOll ~n, UUtlt'lI a

AVIIAnn" f'1t Kno


Rilltin PtE RatIo
A:,V Ann'I DiY'd Yllld

l~d
tod
HI

158

15d

1.511

lUll
lid
13.8

215 SJIo.(ImII)
tSlO
In
U
11.d DopJddon tin_I
d7.d
d.5 Not"'"11'-1
H/IF ".Ol\ IntorH Tu RdI
Not ","11 M.....
135
145 W_g CopT("'Ill)
7~d
70JJ LangT"" IlobII\nII
165
flnlli'
'65
1.5% RftIm on TGb!c.p1
.SlO R_ .. Shr.E_
RIlIinMl to Com Eq
IfI
Nil AD DiY'ds tD NIt Prof

"F
,-"
.. "F

,..'"
1/%

175
5S.d

"r:~

....

'65
7.'"
7.'"
7....
HB

eember 1994. 1999 depreciati::ln 1'lIt8: 7.1%. Tweedy, Browne & Co.
ow.. 8.9%
Rx:l<,
HearlIand
AdviDs,
8.3%;
Oi'nensmnal Fund Advisors, 7.4%; Offs. & 01'., 11.8% (J.OO Proxy).
H.s about 1,600 empb., 6,600 shnl1olden. Ctnnn. & CEO: Cilrl
Lombardi. Inc.: DE. Addt8ss: 15220 N.E. -4OU1 St.. RadnDJd, WA

'" ""'""'"

9B052. Tel: 425-882-3700. www.spatelabs.com.

margined
big ticket ~roducts
helped.
SLMD get to the black. till. sales of U.S.
monitortng systems (roughly half of total
revenue) feU 3<r;J6
from year-ago levels. and
are down 25% year-to-date. A reduction in
Medlcare Reimbursement has weighed on
customer spending habits. while the business has grown more competitive. Rivals
with
greater
resources,
such.
as
CEJMedical and Siemens, remain threats.
Furthermore. cardiology system sales were
off 20%. and should remain weak due to
consolidation within Its dealer channel.
We've suspended
the T'uneliness Rank
due to the possibility
of an acqulsition. After ~
advantage of less mature internatio
markets aver the past
decade. streamlJnJng Its manufacturing
base in 1998, and reaping the benefits
from its product upgrades last year. SLMD
finds. itself vulnerable to the inherent mod~
est growth of its end markets. And though
customer demand will eventua1Jy firm
from current depressed levels. we're not
too enamored with the stock. especially
given its poor marks for Earnings PredictlbiUty and Price Growth Persislence.
Charles C. Moran
December 8, 2000

dati: pri:r' to 1992 Q2 is

pilMlI 0( 1lIIt:lIOIIiE'~.

..
--

.."

-211.3
-52..5

1m

ReceMlbies
Inventor)' (FIFO)

20.0
10.0

..., .."

("ILl

, ,

30.0

1990
911993
1991
20.98 22.68
22.68
23.24
2.'l1
1.93
2.53
2.58
technology base, rnon~oring systems for
1.19
1.54
1.10
1.11
..
..
..
..
acute care patients
in hospitals
were
designed. The first commercial product was
1.58
.60
.68
released in 1968. After being a<Guiled by
10M
11.80 14.41 1'.96
Squibb in 1980, Spacelabs was spun 011 to
10.7u
11.1'
..
.. 14.6 lL6
Wes1mark International, a holding company,
.. .89
..
during 1987. On June 26,
Wesbnarlt
.7.
..
..
..
..
spun off SpaceJabs Medi~ 10 its shareholder.;, dislribubng one share 01 Spacelabs
for
191.6 226.0 2522
248.7
each share 01 We5lmarlt.
16.1'
15.1'
14.7'
16.8'
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE.5 01 ~
6.0
72
8.'
9.'
Total Debt $75.6 mil. DUI In 5 Y" $60.0 ml.
1~1
15.8
18.1
192
LTOIib1STJ.9mi.
LTInflruf $5.6 mi.
39.1% 39.0'
39U
37.9%
(31"ofCap'~
1.1'1t
6.1'
1.0'
1.4'
uases, UneapltallDd Annualmntals $5.4 mil
65.6
n.9
124.0 134.1
Pln.lon U.bifity NoINl
.. 13.3 12.6 11.9
P1d Stock None
Common S10ck 9,548,418 shs..
1B9''''Cap~ 101.1 1172 160.9 171.0
.. of 1ctn7100
12.1'1t 10.8% 10.6"
11.9'
13.6% 11.6% 112%
11.9'
MARKET CAP: $150 mliion ISm.1I C.p)
11.9"
13..5' 11.6' 112%
CURRENTPOSITION
1899

CoI-

12

,
'

Sp."'labs
in 1958
to _
With NASA, developing equipnenl
to monitor astronauts' vital s~ns. Using th~

endar
1197
1191
1199

"
"

I'

,
,
".

",..

23

2003 2004 2005

,
., .,' i"~'III "I,

100 0 0 0
o ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0

2S

..

Target Price Range

'.3

2S
20

010

27

Nil

20.6

23.1
12.5

JFM"MJJAS

."

DMl
lID

30

II"

.. '.

.."

Institutional Decision.

0Ih'"
Cunnt

2. 3
14.0

I."

....

.... .. ,....

P~ AATIO

8D.C".F"'p!lh

k!n'ITIIIaI
Return

I~l
+15%

2.

)jFTh'E NMF

26.0
HI.a

2003-llS PROJECTlON.~_
Hi~

(Troil"I~MF
1Ie~.,:NMF

LEGENDS

n.oo.~

.is

I='

High:
Low:

~r:lI1ZMJ

TECHNICAL
8fTA

NDQ-5LMD

...-..1e5 d

pro

:'1a~

P-l.
SS'iice cr pudlI:L

irtInaiI~.

Company. F&wrcllJ Str.. gttr


Stoc .... Priel StablIitJ
Prica Grvwtb PerslstMcl
Eamlngs PrMkb.bility

I'.

II:

e
60
5
5
II'

SPRINGS INDUSTRIES NYSE.sMI

5 _~ ,""..
SAmY
3 ... 112100
TECHNiCAl 4 _~!Ill!lI
TIIEUIIESS

High.
Low:

45.~
30.5

'9.~
16.9

l~f&NT

36.'
21.3

043.9
30.5

27 ~m 6.8(::~,,~~~r~O.47~ 4.9%
049.0
33.'

041.0
29.3

.a
35.3

~~5PROJEcnoNS
Prk:I

Gain

J,m'l Total
Return

eo

(+195%\

"""

lair
50
(+85%\
Insider O.clslan.

ndiafl!'S

81.0
31.8

.
27.1

51.0
22-.

IrnoSUlll

I '11',,'

20%

"'

;'1'

.'

. ...

I.. III'

,II

'I

II

.....

DJF.AMJJA

... ..

.. ..,
001000000
~.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
_Ill
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Instltutiolllli 0.c1.1oII.
0101111 1m.
202. Perc:tlnt 12.0
II..,
EI9
53
&l .har..
8.0

::=. ~

7lJjS: a..-=

..
..:
iiiIiIi
....

4.'

tradMI

II

107.63
6.44
1.53
1.20
5.'"
32.39
1.
195
1.2.5
4.0%

--=

TOT. RETURl1QIaO

, '1".
1--3)'.
1-- 5 yr.

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989


53.60 57.37 84.19 94.19 103.34 107.94 107.30
3.68 3.1lO U8
8.44
7JJJ
7.15 6.77
1.8&
.86
1.67
3.13
3.61
3.64
2Jrr
.76
.76
.1&
.82
1.01
1.20
1.20
8.73
~'"
W
'.'8
3.",
4.37
8.'2
25.00 25.03 25.89 28.84 30.87 33.re 32.05
17
.lllI
T.
17.
9.3
tu.4
14.3
9.8
9.0
108
'3.8
Ul2
.87
1.6&
.97
.66
.75
.B2
41%
4.4'
4.3'
3.2'
2.7%
3.1%
3.1%

.::l.
-39.7

1-4.8
30.0

.......9

-31.0-

a
I....f-I

1Do1.!

112.44 115.00 11159 110.89 111.34 112.59 122.31 124.01 127.ti1 lXl. Saltspll'lh A
7.51
7.64
8.61
U5
7.65
7.91
7.69
9.43
1.75
11.711-cahFlow"pII'ltI
2.50 2.65 3.50 3.11 3.16
3.51
2.64
3.72
115
.us b'nmglpll'lh.
1.20
1.20
t.2f}
1.20
1.32
1..32
1.32
1.32
1..72
t.J2 DWd.Dd'dpttlll
C
4.57
5.02 517
'.13
3.13 4.98
~78
.'"
....
7."I"op'ISpnIOIR..-'"
33.41 30.00 33.20 3U8
38.75 ~.69
40.62 4318 45.JS
.alD lodlVllutpll'M
17.5
1.
.1
0fIII0Il
fI U
'4!
14!
10.'
'u.8
'4.'
13.4
17.4
'0.' ~~~_
IA'SMa'IPddo
.90
.B8
.6&
.72.
.88
.n
.90
.58
....
- uIWIUvtP/ERaIio
31% 3.0% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% ~9% 3.5%
.-.
A'S AnaHllv'dYiIId

f'-

151.711
1135
12ll
,..

~,.
SUI
11M

''':.,
_
1Jll

ZJU s-..~ A
Z7II
'0.3% '0.9% 'OA% 9.1% 9.5% 8n
fUll I~
fU"
81.4
85.9
87.4
87.1
9:).3 98.5
89.4
84.6
87.0
101.3
1M
1. DIpnCIdon(lnll)
125
37.'
V.f
44.5 47.3 621
11.6 84.6
'1.8
90.1
67.'
1%.'
.... NI1P1ufHS..
u..
5.0><)
(2a% of CaP') h;i'iiii:"fr.i-hm~;IT.1+.rr.<-----i-ii-t-,iiii'---,i-;iii'-----.i:ii;<-h;i'ii-h~IT-i,'irr.;;;:;;:Y.;;;;:it---+--,i;i;'--l
41.01 .(5.4' 44.31 43.61 41.7% 35.4% 26.9% 37.0% 39.0\ 38.~
37.'"
31.rr. tnc:onITuRata
3lK
lII .... , UflQpitalizMl None
Pen.101i Uablltty $23.0 mil .. '99 s. $22..9 mill
2.0% 1.4% 2.3% 2.3% 3.0% 31% 2!%
31%
2.3"
3.0% 3,f"
3-"" NotProf1M..,.
15%
.'98
359.5 329.7 3281 3935 373.0 9063 537.1 546.8 554.9 523.0
Sf5
57C W-RCIp'(lno1ll
m
PN Stock None
260.4 287.8 m,6 293.0 265.4 327.0 177.6 164.3 268.0 283.5
311
2IIIJ t.ong.TImIDIbII~

tommonStcd: 17,923,998shares (72% at Cap"/)


:560.9 568.9 588.1 543.2 5SU
734..5 780.8 804!.6 724.1 774.9
as m SII,.
Ind. 10,769,235ClassA shinswUi 1 vole and
6.3% 4.8% 6.8\
7.1\
B.B% 7.91
7.8'" 8.11
6.3\
7.5% 7.5% IK RIb'n en Tallieap'
1ft
1,'54.J83C~uB''''''_R'
__
.
8.8% 4B% 7.8% 8."
10.1% 9.8% 8.3% 8.9% 6.9% 8.7% I.S'il
f-'" R....... SIa',E.....
f.""

CAPITAl. STRUCTURE u otll3CMlO


Total Debt $368.9 mil. Due In 5 YI'S$264.9 mi.
LTDebt$321.5ml.
LTlntR~S225ml.
(LY Irt8flISl eamac!; 6.7X; Ittal irtmest lXMA~:

1878.0

18r(l.4

1975.7

R.3% 8.1lI

'01%

2022..8 2068.9

2233.1

2243.3

2226.1

2180.5

.22IlG
'OA% 11.0"

2220.4

Ii_
iin

f.

IlARKET CAP: $415 m1IPon (Smlll Clp)

CURRENTPOSfmN
'lOlL)

1111

Receivables
~nIDry (lFO)
Cummt Assets
AcdI Payable
Debt OW
Other
CumUli liab.

4.2
04~:~
823.-4

21.3
112.5

1.5"

-.5%
~~

328.0

~J

8'74J'

106.6

96.8
47.4
134.6'

fJlj.7

137.1

Put Esf'd 'i}'..


5Yrs..
to'IJ-'15
1.0%
''.(}OJ

1.0%

7.D"

5.0%

6.~

~:g~~:~

I--,---======::-,---j

f.

l:.,~~:

.. ar.~.ARr
J~n,~~.,.!!"I'r
.p.n""'"

f197

543.0 529.0 579.2 57".9 2226.f


556.7 537.1 578.3 D." 2180.5
1999 584.0 544.9 562..9 528.6 2220.4
::
~.2 :'
:-8
EAIMIGSPERSfARE
~r
IIM.PerJun.Plr SID.PerDee.P. ::

A.m'::

f-7.:.;c-F''='T.'-"';!"E"--"'7.=t-~;1
1997 .64 .81 1.24 .88
1.
.66
.40
.80
.80
'999 .86 .14 .99 1.13
1.10
.s
2G01
1.18 1.18
1.10 too
Uti
US
QUARTERLY
DM)fJI)S pAIJ c
~r
IIbrJ1Jun.3D Sep.30 DlC.31

3.57
2.64

3.n

3.95
.f.
.f5
~:,

F.:=--F::;;'--'=:'=::---:==-;;;:'-==+-';7.'--!
',996
.66
1991997 .66
1.
:~

.33
.33
:~

.33 _.
.33 ~:
:~ _.

2000

.33

.33

.66

121

-4.11

5.01

74%

45'

43%

1.21
32%

1.32

or"W"90'

5.0%

5.71

3.61

5.8%

'-Q%

31%

40%

36%

341

341%

Industries
is showing some
signs of sb'enRth in a tough enVironment ... Retalf sales of home furnishings
have weakened, affecting the entire dlstrlbutlon cham. But sales to the company's
top-tO customers
(accounting for more
than 60% of total sales) rose 15%, year to
year. in the third quarter. ThIs advance
likely reflects the reorganization of the
marketl.ctg and merchandising
functions
into aa:ount and product teams last year.
The consolidation of the purchasing
functlon with fewer suppliers also boosted
gross margins by about 210 basis points.
helping to offset higher customer claims
and. production curtailments. And tight
cost controls helped reduce the Septemberquarter expense ratio by 30 basis points.
... but the fourth quaner
is likely to
be more challenging. Springs held back
on sa I es 0 f 0 If-qua IIty an d doseout merchandlse late last year and Into 2000 due
to low prices, and Inventories rose. 1'bough
prices have not Improved, the company began to unload these stocks In the Septembe.- quarter. Progress was less than expectghed, and inventorles were nearly 16%
hi
eJ" at the end of the period
than they

~i~
1.32

6.11

BUSIIIESS: Springs lndusns, Inc. is. IeBdllg producer of home


furnishings, chiefly bed, bath, IIlIdwindow t1slMonpnxIuds. Brand
flllTleS indude S~
~,
Grab8r. BaI, and Wabasso.
L.i:e1lS8d I\.IITI8S ..
M Bbss, lisner. '00 Liz AI Home. ExitBd
lI1OII.pl*8land
speciaIy fatna busil1llSSMifl t996 and 1999.
Al:qund Dundee Mils, SIlls; Regal Rugs and ArrlllIbn Fiber,

300::4 27il Springs

2ID

''CsshAow''

2.7

302.2

275.2
3~~
7812
98.5

~~
Bcd Value

3.01

. 11!t1 1I/3lM1O 551

-48.1

C8Sh Asset&

ANNUAL RATES Pu1


ofctwlge(plfWlj
tllrs..
SilIe1
1.5%

41.0

.I! (I.Dll. MIlUt)

IlfD,

!Ugh

"."

505

,..4

LEGENDS
5.0 I C.V! FkM'" P V!
_ - R!S~ Pritt Slrmgll
2.fDr-l ~
""7

(AJ Y8ir.lIda on SlIiIrday near85l11X!


($2.046);"93, (54.0n; '96, 99; W, (1~);
yd, (81 Prtnary earn.
tm:ugh 1997, tIlen '98, (67); 119, 8j; lXi, 10. 1998 quiDrs
dllEd. EICiJcIes nel8ldrl. glinsl(mses): 'M, don1 add dll8lD dla~"
.In. oot. Next egs.
35; '85, (23~ '86, ~; "88, (63f'); '119,e; ~
due mi:H=eb.(CJ OPts. shown br Cl A

RI'IaIMdIDCClIIIEq

"'"

2K

AlDir'dltDNMProf

.uS

1199. Sot! UIraSueae, 8198; Spmgfllld, 12!38. '99 depr. I'D:


1.0%. HIS 18,300 em~
aboUt 2,550 shSlBhoIlian. CbIe
fllllly awns 10.2% of CIrDs B nJCt (votiIg a:nWoI); OIls. & Oinlc1m

own

2.9%

at CIIIss

8, -4.3% C...

r.wo proxy). Chairman

&

CEO: Crandll Close BowIlIa. Inc; st. AddI8ss: P.O. Bwl 70, Fen
MI. SC 29716. TtL: 8CJ3-5.471500.wab: www.spmgs.ccm.
a year earlier. Springs plans to get
even more aggressive in Its Inventoryreduction program. which should pressure
margins In the December quarter. The
plan also calls for a greater amount of
downtime at grelge fabric plants, versus
the third quarter.
All lold. we look for a
40% drop In fourth-quaner share net.
Results should improve as 2001 progresses. RetaU saJes amId very well remain
soft Into next year, but comparisons will
get easier 1n the second haff. Springs Is
also phasing out produet.1on at two babyproduct facilities and consolidating terrytowel yarn productlon. The restructuriJll;t
should be completed In early 200 I, provicfIng aftertax savings of $2.5 mIl1Ion fur the
year. Furthermore,
a modest reductlon in
debt levels should ease interest expenses.
These untimely shares are down more
than 45% ~
.. urn their 2000 hig h. Longteon investors will find the low PIE ratio
and the above-average dividend yield
enticing. MoreO'Yer, an improved retail
scene by 2003-2005
should
support. decent
profit growth and broader interest from
Wall Street.
Craig Sirois
November 17, 2000
were

shares only. CL B dill. 10% lower. Next diw'd


illig. mihlan. Next 81 l:Iate about Dec. 18.
[)h'd piI)'I'I'IeI1l dales: Jan. 2, Ms. 31, June 30,
Sept. 29. (D) In mi., 1d)Jsted for split.

III 2UIl. ~
liIe NIisIinq. Inc. AI riQIU nRmIIl. fmllll .....
il. aliIintd flllll II:Ua5 bIiewd ID be r'IIIiIlIe .... is poriIal ...... ..nlllie5 d IIlJ UMI.
lH( PU8UStEJlIS
MlT RESPOMSeLEl"ORNf'f
ERRORS OR OIoISSiQffSH[AEIN.
T1Iispdc:UaisSlicly
Ii:Ir .. !DiIB'5~lIIlIrw
I :::ilL irC8TIII LISe. No pm
d"lIII)'bt~
..
II Drm*d
II tt..-1anlI, ClIIY:Il" ~
II"""
"'''''CI
dtidnlnic ..........
SII'Iil:e II" poUt.

iII..,...-. ....

Lft,

Compo,.. Financial Shftgttl


StDck'a Price SbhIIty
PrtcI Growth ,. ... iItHcaI
_Eamlngs PfldlctabilltJ
I

I '.

: II:

B
70
15
80
I I'

I~

TENET HEAlTHCARENYSE.THC
TII[UNESS

1 RM

SAfrTY

3 NN,a'/lQ
2 _~ 12J11.Q1

!fCHNICAL
IETA

om-

.90

High:
Low:

11lZJIlD

19.5
10.7

20.1
'4.6

LEGENDS
, 0.0 I "'tISl ,.-

25.8
12.6

18.1
g.t!

Nil
20.
13.5

14.4 . 19.5
6.5
12.5

34.9
21.4

23 .
18.'

40.9
23.11

16.9

Target Price Range


2003 200. 2005

11"

'"

J A S

IIS~
000000002
InslitutionalOllClsions
1IJZIII

1m_

..

, "

'f

.'

""1.. , ..IV

JaJ..

Percent

'.-

120

0 .0

.'

". "iii" -

. .'

I-__

.' ", ."..

I---

1H5

THe.

1 yr.

13.0

13.0

13.0

10.3

10.9

14.6

14.5

16.1

18.8

this page prior 10March 1. 1995 reflect Nationa! Medical Enterprises only.

97
2.11

.83

.79

.61
4.11

.11

J6
..

.91

.B3

..

..

J6
..

2.01

2.61

.ft

..

CAprrAl STRUCTURE U ote/311OO

3935.3 3806.5 3951.0 3162.0

2967.0 3318.0 5559.0 8691.0

9895.0

10880

17.3"
168.0

19.9'
198.0

18.3"
460.0

17.1"
Mli.O

~::~ ~::I~=AnnU.1
Common Itoell: 317,013,037 shs
as aUJZ9J2000

(44% of Cap'Q

MARKETCAP: 113.&blllion lLaJVI Cap)


CURRENTPOSmoN
1!111
ZOOO I1/31.M

g:r:ntAsEts

Other
CunentLiab.

159
2318
221

145
2506
223

189
2515
226

713
45

671
9

601
10

1264 ~
2022

1912

1225
1838

11.1'

15.9'
199.0

1U~
195.0

,s.n.

18.4'
443.0

32.2

191

1140.0
1762.0

1006.0 892.0
161-4.0 1752.0

223.0 3273.0
1321).0 1986.0

11.3"1.

11.1'

19.2'
1U'I
23%

15.7'
12.2%

10.8'
15.1'
10.6'
30'

15.0'1
15.9'
12.6"
191

S.9711.2\
6.8"
~"

4.9'
10.1'
10.1"

3191.0
2636.0

5022.0
3224.0

5829.0
3558.0

6391.0
3870.0

5668.0
4066.0

7.0%
10.3"
10.3%
.

7.9'
13.8"
13.8%
.

8.3'
15.""
15.1"
..

7.5%
134'
13.4"
.

8.0%
14.0"
14.0'1
.

8USWESS: Tenet HeillfhcaRlCt.p. owns oInd'or opntes 130


aCmB I3e hospi1iilll5(30,800 beds) m 18 slates, wlh OX\celllratilns
WICA, TX and FL Also opInEs specially en fadllBs. Merged
wlh OINda (50 hospul5~ '/97. '00 OCOJpant')' rate: 46.8%. R8venlHilSby S1Wi:8: mpilti!nt. 67".- ~iH7t,
33". ~
by
payer. Meclic:in/Meclcaif,
41%; Il'llInaged CIIItt, 40%; prim8 pay,

~=~:~

'Jenel

HeaJthcare

is poised

to benefi t

revenues and earnings throughout the industry


over the next few J-vp~r;:.
This
BOOkVBlua
stands In contrast to three consecutive
f.:;:=-:';::::"'==::::'~==::::=T:;f"'::',.-l years of d~ased.
Medtcare reimburse-fE~_=1 A
FIICIII ment rates from the U.S. government that
~~+':~~~~~~--;-::l'.o;~Y-~r hampered revenues and depressed stock
1197 1991 2112
2237 2351
8691.0 prices. Too. th~ company's top line should
,t9I 2331 2429 2564 2571
9895.0 get a boost from increased
Californla
MedIcaId outpatient reimbursements.
200' 2893 _7
3G3S _
2f1Of
Tenet's earnings will likely increase
Fill
15%--17% in fiscal 2001 (year ends May
AuU~~PERFe~~A~31
FIICaI 31st). Management
Is optimistic about
~2!""~~!;'...!!:~~~~~;rif-.!JYu~r
this years results because during the first
tft7
.32 .34
.39 .41 1.46 two months of the second quarter, It saw
,.
.38
.41
.47
.47
1.73 strong cash flow and it solid rise In same1991 .44 .40 .40 .:1
1.~ facility admissions rates. Moreover. the
2OQO
.39 .43 .48 . 1 1.
company made progress in redUcing losses
lI01
.-18
.51
.55 .51
2. ID f
lh
h I
Coil.
QUARTERLY
DMlENDS
PAIl
Full rom
e p ys clan practices that it owns.
Vur It has exited many of those contracts and
lI.r.31 Jun.30 .. ~ '" ~.3'
endolr
......-.
plans to exit even more by yearend. Tenet
1.
also reduced Its Interest expense by reduc'157
NODMDENDS
lng Its debt load dUring the quarter. Man~:
BEING
PAID
agement indicated that It may revise Its
2000
full-year guidance when it announces
"CashFJow"

Earnngs

4.0,,"
3.0%
5.5%

8.5%
9.0%
5.5%

11.0"
16.0"
Hi
15.0"

fJJlIII~n:~.~~S~;1

= ~ ~ = :~ =

l'?'

AI

l2O/; 00.
'98.

See histlry. F"ISCIII


~
ends MolY31'1t.
(88jj; '83, (22); '94. (13.73); "95,
B Fully diutBd I!iII'11IJgS tom 1990 I1lDl1gh 36; '97, ($2.30): ~, (89); "99, {86:
1996, priNry DIherwiIe. ~
IIOIhQlr (85) (4t!). Next earnilgs report duB -'Y
mg UaWl(uses): "90, <zf); '91, (2): '92,
II 2Il1O. YIItIe Lne NIi5hiIIL .. M riIttJ merwC. ramlllllftrill s ~
fIan'I 5Ute ~

Apr.

'

'.'_",~~""._~___

Nil
1.70
2115
f5.D

'oM
III

O~.;.;....

S320 lOllg.TInIIOIbII~
475IJ stir. E

101 R.un on ToI:II~C-.:"


1.(SJ: RftJrn on $hr. EDUttv
14.5''' RIbIned to CanlEq
,. AlDiY'dltoNl1Pruf

blOn: ~comPIJl'"
Flnl.nclll Sbngth
Stock'.Prtc. Stl.b1ilJ

f125D
170B

dI
1115
JJ.D'%
iR
'47#
lT20
"45
ft.",
15.5%
15.5%
Hi

tI .,

B
eo
45
85

Pries Growt:h Psl"ltlttM:II


Earnings PrMlctabilit,
bill.
I

~_. i, ....... _..<..

1f11

secon d -quarter res uIts. G iven the many rlavotable indIcations about a solid earnings
environment
for Tenet
Healthcare. we
would expect any new sharenet guidance
to be positive.
TIle
c0:t.any
has solid
IPA.",inaoc
---_potential
or the pun to 2003-2005.
In
response Lo a poor operating environment
for hospitals over the past few years.
Tenets management
streamlined operatlons in an effort to improve profltabillty.
With this leaner structure in place, lhe
company stands to benefit handsomely
from higher MedIcare revenues over the
next 3 to 5 years. As such. we anticipate
further solid share-net advances during
this period.
These timely shares
have moved up
another notch in our ranking system
to 1 (Highest) for year-ahead
perf'onnanee. The stock has risen about 20% since
Se
b
n
hi h
our
ptem er report. re ecting
g er
earnings expectations and good legis)atlve
news. However, much of the bottom lines
advances that we project. over the next: 3 to
5 years appear to be already factored into
the stock's current price.
Joseph EspailJat
December 29. 2000

..nre
~

5.10

19". tlO dept. raf8: 6.6". Has 105,000 smpl 0Il's. & db. 0fIftl
3.'''' cr stock; Prudenllal lnsura~
Co. of NrwI., 7.4"'; AXA Financill~ 6.4%; Oppenheiner CaP"18.'''':
W9IIington "grit. 52'"
(8100 1RXY1.Chrmn. & CEO: J.C. BlIIbliJkaw.0IIi0ll d th8 Prestdent Tnwcr F8ttIlr "" l1xmI:s B. Mae,.
Inc..: IN. Adl:k: 3820
State St., Sima Blllbalil, CA 93105. Tel.: 805-563-7000.

(Cllndudes intlngilles; n 2000, $3.34


S10.57lshp.
(Dlln miOns, IIdjJs19d b spa.

to tie RIliilIe .. 5 p1IIIiMIf ~


llI[P\IIUStER
IS fill REg>()NSItlE'tORNff
[RRORS ORCMSSlClN:sHERf . 11is.....,il.*it:lJb~_.tIaII~IIIIIImII~.Hoplft
IIIl l DII]' be nIpftlIkacL ...
GI IIrmIRd iI ..,. 11""*4 ~
GI .,.. _
GI IIMIl b g-nling -.IIeIiIg ." pdII GI IIfIrII1rtrit

53.10

Roll"'" PIERdo

6,.'

1361.0
12570

r-

lAY; Anii'! PII:RItia

AygAmlHv'1i Yilld
17.0%
533.0

s:: ~ r--

11<414 12f1OOR.-nun ($nIII) A


111'%
112.0 196.0
321.0
5lD O.. dation ("W)
2.,7.
Tn .0 2S30.. 197 0 209.3 1997.
271.0 ~.O
531.0 519.0 569.0
115 Nit PraIt($lIIIII-40.3" 41,311139.3% 42.1'1. 40.0" 40.6' 441'4 39.8'4 39.3" 38.0" 38.4% .D.n InCOl'H Tu lID
6.1"
1.31
S.l"'
1.1'
6.()14 4.914
5.''4
5.4'
.u"r
5.0"
5.7% NItProItM.
249.0 346.0 223.0 155.0 d196.o 268.0 4U,O 522.0 1123.0 1940.0 1682.0 1851 Wcdm,c.,'tSnt.,
19.5"

17.:::::::.:::~=--=-~=,-=-~O::=;;:;;;;;-Jfrom new legislatiolL A Medicare relief


ANNUAlRA.TES P..t
Past Est'd ..... 'OO package was recently passed by the U.S.
~~~
.. )
11~,,"
~~%
Clf~ Congress that will likely boost hospital
Dividends

11.7

.B9.79

Total Debt $5434 miL DUIIln 5 l .... $3085 mil


LTDebt 15424 nil.
LTlnt.rest $460 mil
Ind.
$330 mil. ~ exchangeabllt nOi'I!S(05).lDtIY
into 25.9 shs. Ventas mrm10fI stock ami $239.36
in talItl per $1,000.
Ind. $6OmIllncapblled
1Bil58S.
(ll iJ!eresI samed: 2.81; tota) nerest COVS89e:
2.1b:)
(56%ofCa~'l
Jelltals $209.0 IriL

Debt Due

is}

"

s~ 134.4 83:4
CYALlJEUNEPIJB
IIC. DU5

om......

All data on

AccIs Payable

20

VL..-nL

Tenot Heanhcare Corp. was formed on 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
March " 1995, when Nali""a' Medical Efl- 24.94 21.78 23.66 22.68 17.86 16.60 25.15 18.70 31.99 30\.98 36.41 31.51 R'-_I*"""
lerpnses purchased Amencan Medical Hold- ~60 <51 ~E9 2.39
2.45
1.91 V4
~93
312
340
352
195 C,"" ~
.. oil
lngs (AMI) for $1.5 billion cash and 33.2 ",,/.
lJ4
1.54
1.36
1.13
1.19 1(J9
1.l7
1.40
1.73
1.65 1.81 Z,O famings I*" oil.
ion shares 01common md<. (AMI had all'
.16
.40
.40
.48
.12
.
..
..
..
..
..
MI OWd.Dod'dl*"'"
eratad 37 acuts care hospitals w~h 8,831 ~B5 ~16 2.52 1.92 1.11 1.32
1.71 1.30\
1.73
1.0)
'97
1M ICop'lSplnlUnuI*" oil
beds In 13 states.) The combined
compa1.9]
1(1.08 10.03
1G.56
7.95
9.93
1221
10.65
11.50
12.44
12.97
14.15 BookYaNlpwlhc
nies then adopted !he name Tenet H.. nh- 157.78 174.76 '60." 165Jlll '60." '99.94 1215." "'2." ~rn[1l2Tm.46
rm:lIIJ

ca"~
Receiv1l.bles
Inventory (FIFO)

,.

24

.,
.II'IP'"
I,' I" "
0 h,....
d
'~-"i-"'~f---.:,!!2q;J't-:J1rJ1:--.:."!:-:...-_------------+----+--+--~
2 .'.. J.'.~'" .'
." t 1I,.,I'1t1'
..
.... r I'
.. ....
. ."
%TDt.RE11JRNlll11D

119
1nl
191 .h.r-.5
:::'1287~~
282m 294~~ t~

.."

--

I ,:

~.

care and the ocker syrrbol

....

'00

,,
(+5%'

.kJ

15.4

MiIHl)

!Iigh
65 (+50%'
lOir
45
Insider DeciAions

0,-.000000100
..,

.43.4

P 5h

2003-05 P

27.2

senice pOlIId.

,..

II:

II' ,

THOR INDUSTRIES NYSE.THO

.... 3 '-"." ..
3 NrwJn.J.90
4 _ .... '"

lWWIIESS

SAFm

IECHNICAl
IETA

WCEN!
PRICE
4.7
3.0

'.2
4.2

High:

Low:

10.1

18.6

4.2

8.2

20
19.1
10.0

6 6 (I Iodi.l:1tl
.... 1.7)WELATM
Pi RAm 0 46

Pi
RAm
20.3

1.1. 5
10.5

'25

175
10.8

23.0
13.6

.II.~
......

IClZ_'
29

P.rc-nt

1",1:./

Il-..

111

Total Debt None


UncapitaliDd Annuall1!ntals S 1.7 rnillDn.

Penllon lIabiity None


Pfd stock Hone

Common stock 11,986,460 sh5. (100%afCap'Q


CAP: 'ZSO mIlRon (Small Capl

....

''''
'35

Oth..
Current Assets
AaD PlIYllbie
Debt Due
0tINn

ANNUAL RATES

Sales

''Cash Flow"

Earnings
Dividends

800Il Value
F1....

Y-

E.",

1197
1111

,m
2000

2001

68.9
53.8

7B.0
51.9

72'
B.5

89.5

".3

..

.-

30.7
79.0

Pat

Past

lOllS.

SYIL

16.5%
19.5%
21.0,,"
4.0%
14.5%

5.'
225.3
4 .8

202.1

25.2
74.6

Cummlliab.

of_IPo'~1

1199 7131/00

56.2
".7
5.3
173.7
49.4

Inventory (UFO)

&fd

Oct.31 Jan.3t
150.5 123.5
165.5 134.5
165.5
18'.2
221.0 193.7

13.0"
14.0"
B.'"
19.0"

14.0%

Apr.30
169.3
106.9
123.7
144.0

195

155

JuUt
181.1
208.7

217.'

235.3
ZfIl

EARJlNGS PER SHARE A


Oct.31 JlD.31 Apr.3D JIlL31
.39
1197
.16
.50
.38
.49
.18
11911
14
.50
1199
.57
.18
.45
.73
.80
.55
.80
.83
.71 .55
.13
21101
.l1li
FIKaI

Ya,

E.",

ea.

"'or
1191

1197
1198

F.,
F.... '

Y-

624.4
715.'
805.8
694.0
.15

,.,
,-,
Ya,
1.43
1.81
1.53
1.98
H5

QUARmlLl O!'roENOSpAJDC
Full
IIIlr.31 Jun,. Stp.30 Dec.31 Y.,
.02
.02
.02
.08
.02
.02
.02
.08
.02
.02
.02
.02
.08
.02
.02
.08
.~ .~ .~ 02

I'j'''''''.J." 31"shareli
B Baed on .....
awnge

...

% lOT. RE1lJRN 101D

.,

..

30.90
1.17
.85

36.55
153
110

1995
42.10
1.19
1.03

.08

.08

.08

.32

.39
8.01
13Jl
13.0
.81
.6\

.14
6.06
13.34

15.3
.90
.6\

1.14
13.43
12.8
J4
.5%

4121
491.1 562.1
65\
4.9%
5.8"
45
'.B
'J
IfJ
16.0
13.8
40.1% 36.8\
39.9'
1.111 3.3'1\ 1.5\
41.9
65.1
56.'

1~.
3~.

1996 1997 1998 1999


58.61
046.21
51.12
66.36
2.17
1.84
1.62
1.83
1.81
1.53
111
1.43
.08
.08
.08
.08
.17
.61
.36
.15
9.14 10.02 11.32 13.62
12.14
13.W
1222
12."
11.9
9.1
10.1
11.1
.S1
.55
.53
.64
.3\
.3\
.1\
.5\
115.6 B05.B
6021 624.4
5.3% 5.5%
5.8'
6"
4.4
3.1
5.0
4.5
16.1
f7.B
121
30.'
40.2% 41.3'1.
41.0% 40.6'
3.1% 3.8\
1.7\
2.9'
99.1 113.1
14.9
81.8

2000 2001
14.58
'IUS
3.40
1'"
115
2SB
.12
.08
1.16
1.311
1619
1U5

CI"

11.!l!l

,1.4.

.......

-1.2
021l

'~.
eYALUELtEP\Il
SalIS,.r1b

30.'
104.8

~C.

"eash Flow" pw. ..

4JIO
.12

Earring- pIf III I!!I


Div'dl DKI'd pII' III C
c"', ........
pw. ..

.....

1.15

I:

B.l
YIlAn" P,. Rdo
R_PIERdo
.59
A..rg Ann' DiY'd YIIkI
J\
894.0
ff5
1.1%
7-'" o...dn.M .....
4.1
5.' Oopnd_IIooM)
JU
36.1
40.1% 41."" IrIaIftII Tu Rdll
4.0\
N~~II_
Clp111m1ll
136.9
1611
.. iii 1.I1ng1"",00bI~}
195.2
225 Sln.-_II8ollli
18':;"
"Ill' Rnn an TDIIICIp'
185\
'[Ill' R_ '" S1w. EWit.
Rnalned to Cen Eq
18.0'"
4~ AI DiY_ 10 ., Praf
3S

-~I'

Nof~"~'

OU5

'T.'"
~66

BotiYllueplflh
D
cnnICIlI ~ftI 0V1Sf1

.
8

~
~
~

17.411

1111
A!
.2%

fU5
70ft
U

".11

~""w_,

41.'"
~1~
270
Nil
35ll

..

13.01

..

..

95.9 101.9 119.2 122.4


16.~
12.8% 13.5% 14.6%
16.111 11.8\ 13.1\ 14.6\
'J\
NMF to.9'"
6.8'"
15.6'" 11.8" 12.6'" 13.8%
1111 100S
7S
8\
111
6\
8\
BUSINESS: Thor IndustriBs, Inc. manufac:bns 8 wide range of
motor homes and travel trailers i1 the U.S. and ClInadalhrolJgh its
Ai'straarn, General Coach, Outdrten Mfg., Four Winds, Thor Ind.
Well, and Thor Ind. or PA "ubs.i:Ii1rills. Tilor is the second IBrgESl
Il'IlInufaclLnr at RV. and the WgesI: buildw cl sman- and milkizad
buses II North AmBri:a. Acqudd Ekkndo SUI. subs. 9/88;

1361
16.0"
16.0"
15.3"
4\

Dutdlrnen Mfg., Uil1; Na1ional Ctch, 101'91; Feu Wnds Int.,


&92; Skamps Corp., 3195: Kamb1 Tra.1In, .vas; ancl Chan1MDn
Moa Coach, 2J9B. '00 d&pr. nm: 9.B" ..... about 3,520 amp.,
205 shMlhoklIn. errs. & On. own 46.6% or stlck (10r99 proxy).
CIwmn., Pres. & CEO: Wad8 F.B. Thompson. Inc.: DE. AdEr.: 419
wsst Pike st., Jdson Cemw, OH 45334. Tet 937-59E1-Q49.

try. Indeed, althOU~h the company 6nIshed


oil llscal 2000
ended
July 31sl) with
record sales and eamlngs figures, backlog
at THO's RV division (74% of fiscal 2000
sales)
was about
$62.5
million at the end
of Lhe year, down roughly 41% from the
year-earlier figure. And even though Thor
seemed to 1nJ.tlally sidestep much of Lhe
maJaJse that has plagued the RV industry
over t..he last year or so, it appears that
record-high gasoline prices. increased inLerest rates, and waning consumer confldence levels are finally taking their Loll
on the company's recreational-vehicle segment. As such. we have pared THUs sales
and
earnings
growth
for fiscal 200 I. to
2.0% and 6.0%. respectJvely. from previous
estimates of 10.0% and ]5.0%, and we now
look fO[' the company to report lackluster
oomparisons over the flrSt half of the year.
All told. we expect that Thor"s fiscal 2001
earnings will approximate the $3.15-ashare mark.
Nevertheless.
the bus division continues to thri'Ye. DesptLe Thor's ongOing ex-

proximately $204.8 milllon at the end of


fiscal 2000, which augurs well for Its prospeets ove[' the coming year. What's more,
industry trends appear positlve over the 3lo 5.year
pull,
as Thor, the leading
player
in the small- Lo mid-sized segment of the
bus industry, is likely to make further Inroads In the municipal transit market, as
lTansput.atJon
providers
mass
move
toward
SlIlaller,
more
fuel-effident
vehicles. As a result. we would noL be surprlsed to see the company build a new
mid-sized bus fadUty aver the next few
years. :In order to maintain :Its production
capacity .
Theoe neutrally
ranked shares offer
attractive
capital-appreciation
potenrial through 2003-21105.
And our current
projections for the 3- LQ5-year pull may
weU prove
conservative, shmdd 1bo['
remain active in the consolidation of both
the bus and RV industries, as it inLends to
gain market share and has the flnanda1
wherewithal to fund selective acquisitions.
Kenneth A. Nugent
November 10, 2000

40.9
8.3\

..

4O.B 11.1
1.4% 11.8%
1.4\ 11.'\

.'

..

..

..

'O.B
13"
13.9\
12.6%
K

165.4
18.6"
18.6\
180'4

3\

d'" - """

Ir

: ID,lndudes
J....

Cd.....
outstanding (C) Next dividend meetng about Dee. 4th.
ilta"Vibles- In 2000: 117.4 milion,
tftmugh l'i5ca:11997. bole r_atls". E.dIdeI Goes l!LII about Dee.. Z1Il. ApprminatB divt- U5fsh.
nome. item: '98, $0.22. ~ I!i1rMIgs report d&nd paymIilnl dates: fi's1 __
rI January, {E)ln rniIIiw, ad;Istad for splD.

CI 2l1lO. YIIIIe .... t ~


TlI PUBUSHER IS NJI RE
" ....., lit ........

..,.
.-25.0
14.8
nos

,"

f1OlO
12.5l<

'"

.36.' Thor Industries is beginning to feel panston


of tts Kansas bus plant
(which
66.' the effects of the overall downturn in should Increase productJon capadty by at
'No'. the recreational
fur the unlt was apvehicle (RV) indus- least 30%), backlog

""''15
12.0"

125%
15.5%
19.0%

QUARmlLl SAW (SIAl'

163.4 140.9 213.4


3.4\
1.6% 6.5'
1.6
1.4
3.0
3.4
'.4
38.5% 41.5'
39.5'
.4\
1.1\
3.1'
19.1
28.B
191

..

CURRENT POSITION

"
12

..

1"( I;'

"

11II1..I.j
ea",Ass81s

20

4.'
2.'

'306
SUoces5Of

CAPITALSTRUCTURE all of 7131ftM1

24

"

...

..

...

.ARKET

."

"

,.

II

I,I"II~

Thor Indumas is a
to a campa- 1990 ;~9~'!.~t.
ny of the same nama that was fanned on 15.17 13.11 20.54
July 29, 1980, t. acquire the Airs1ream Div>
10
.86
sion of Beatrice Companies, Incorporated.
.31
.05
.n
Arnream was founded in 1931. Thor In
.05
.05
.08
dusIJiBs completed an iniliaJ public olIB1ing
.15
.09
.15
on January 10. 1984. ThB offering was led
3.60
3.60
534
1D.71 1O.i 5 13>1
by Shea",OIl and the shares were traded
OVBrthe cooo!er ootil August 29. 1986. when
19.4
142
11.8
Thors common stud< began trading on thB
1.05
5.01
.n
New Yo", Stock Exchange.
1.3%
11\

Luses,

ii

r 'I,,,"

JJA

Z7
Z7

40
32

,. I"

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
InstituUoNilI D.ci.ians

4".

- --

~_ildcRJ~sJilIn

25

,...
80

--

""

.....

Targel Prfc. RInge


2003 200' 200.
100

3-b"-2

J-Iof-2 s:.~ 4198

2
B'
"'"
1+ ""11 "'"

DJF

0.4%

30.6
19.2

90S I -C.5h FIlM'"P 51

Ann'TGlII

.....,.
"".
....:J:., ..,5J;.. ,....

320
22.3

, RdIIive PrU Slrfllglh


3-b'-2 ~
!lIt2

200U5 PROJEC11ON~_

+100%
Insider Decisions

29.7
20.0

LEGENDS

.10 OJ-Mllt!f)

:':1.:'

~V'D
YlO

ng:

AI ~IU!t5lImd.
F8C1UIl __
IS aIUrelI "-.rtZS ~
S8l[
OR""" [R1IDRS OR ClMS9ONS. KrR[I\I. TIm ~
Dr!II*d II -J p;-. IIIIecIuIE CI" 1IlIB ......
IMII ... ,.....

:':2

10 tit ...,.
.. is ptJidtd .....
...-its "
tM.
if. slri:ty a Jllb:rDr's ~
_-etnnBCiIL illllII1III_.
D pm
CI" fIMIIliIg.., piIIIIllI C1" .....
fUlblimI. 511"11iw. puGd.

Comp.ny'.

""'_"h

..
5tDck'1 PricaF~stability
Price Gruwth ParstIIMIcI
Earnings P~1tJ
I

I ",

B+
55
7tI
65
: I I:

I I '

TOSCO CORP, NYSETOS


3 ,-,,"WI
3 ""'''''''

TIIIEIJN[SS

SAFETY

LEGENDS

U 1C,,,. F"

3 .........

TECHNlCAl.
BETA oM 0.00.

MilrU(l

ace;

(,~~t1""
50

.S'
Institutional

.....

DKlslons

1~.

l~.

10.9

11.7

5.5

a~

a.'

l~a
'.2

27.0
12.3

38.3
25.8

"

"

--

--

...

1"11
II,,;: 1"1,""-

I'
.

--

......

--

1.,

(po-"'I

....eo>"

n...

llYn.

7.5%
10.0'4

18.0%
25.0%

t6J%

22-5%

30.5%

4.0%
26.0%

--

.......

QUARTERLY SoIL!S II oIIj

to.5"

10.5"

'1.0'1
8.5"

16.lJ"

Fwll

falrll steady on a sequential basis, reflecting avorable pricing for middle distillates
(heating oil. jet fuel, and diesel). Meanwhile, although reBning macgins on the
West Coast Cell back Crom the heights at
talne<! early In the period. they nevertheless could be characterized as good. on
average. The company's retail operations
In ,outhern California (CA, AZ, and NY)
experienced
tough going In the third
quarter, given the competitive landscape
made It difficult to pass rising wholesale
prices onto customers at the pump. This
situation appears to have moderated somewhat in the December period. with Tosco's
retail margins widening, though I~~ still
narrower than nonnal. In sum, aerate
sequential decline In the contribution from
the company's refining business was likely
more than offset by the better profits from
retailing. Indeed. this situation and the
higher throughput from Tasco's recent acqulsitlons of refining and retail assets left
the company with a good chance of posting
record earnings for the fourth quarter.

y",
SeD.30 DeeJ1
39,6
3196
13291
1997 24'0
3759
2842
12022
1991 3047
3168
2965
4186
14362
1919 2638 3679 3660
4630 5595 68IT
U1St1
2llO1
tI1lll1
EARNINGS PER SHARE A
Full
eo>
IIr.3t
Jun.3D SID.3I Dtc.31
E1.56
.61
.44
1997
.03
.42
.30
11911
.61
.45
1.62
.26
.36
1.76
1199
.18
.53
.69
1.IlO
:LU
.50
.95
J!T
2lI01
.so 1.10 1.15 .B5 ~QQ
QUART9LT DIV[)EIIIS PAl) C
Full
Co!V.. r
Ilr.3t
Jun,30 S.p.30 DeeJ1
.06
.06
.23
1997
.11
-24
1991
.12
- - .06 .06
.07
.26
1919
.12
.01
-.07
.07
.14
2001
.re
(A) 0"""
ego... _
""00,"...... ""-ops.:'92,
Iems: '84, d$9.18; '85, 38; '86, $2..18;
dS1.36. Next egs. rpt. late Jtnl.lODY.
117, B3; '88, 37~; '89. 11Jt!;'91, 6; '92, 18; (81 In nL, adj. for stt. spla. (C) Nex1 div'd
'93. d11; '94.~: '95, d~: '96, d8; '97, d19; rn\I. aboul March 13. Goes u aboul M.-ch 21.
" llDl. YaUe li1e ~~~~.
r.... 1IIIIfIriIl is oI:IIiImcI bln _
tIdrRIllo
be
Mar.31

Jun.30

- -- ....
....,
,

--

2_

Y.,

"""""""I}16'4I:".S'.09;

THE PUIlI..ISK:RISICTRE
af ..,. ~ ~
..

24

f----

1~
79.02 99.81
3.915 4.10
1.76
1.62
24
26
3.01
J.73
12.51 '-4.65
18.1
.94
.%

......

...
""'"
-

....

'" TOT. RETURII1111l11


".".

"

....

"Cash FIcw"
EilrOOg5
DM:Iends
BookVIIUI

32
20

.....

,.

Sal......

--

.,

1.1'

40

12

...

--..

...

rln[III'"IW'

"

.-

---

.-

100
80
84

1111l~rl

/~ "-

.-

--

- - - -- -- - -

18

1997
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1987
29.32 24.08 22.08 21.19
3I>.T1 .W
6551 75.14
84.99
54.25 43.41
Z14
.99
1.81
1.29
.915 1>,
1.40
m Z59
3.50
1.25
.55
.31
1.31
.72
.23
.68
.71
1.23
1.56
d6.53
.22
21
.23
.22
-- .10 .20 .20 .20 .20 21
.97
.48
.33
.67
.79
.76
1.44
1.82
1.64
326
.71
129
1.78
3.72
426
3.03
420
5.18
5.64 10.46
12.44
US
d27.0< 1125.34
d3.75
d1.17
I."
,I.
.1
1
.7
7.
.7 111.15 11.1
14.2f
15.Ul
lW
1.
aI5
22.9
4.9
9.9
35.0
9.4
14.8
15.4
142
20.0
1.7
482
.11
1.73
.30
.56
.97
1.03
.89
1.15
1.25
.63
Z12
3Jl1
_.
1.41 3.1'''
2.8%
2.5%
2.4%
2.0'4
2.0%
12%
.7%
2157.9 1979.7 1861.0 35692 63155.9 7284.1 9922.15 13281
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 9IJCMIO
Total Debt $2295.9 mill. D....... 5 y~ S3SS mil
11.6%
93%
6.7%
73%
4.1%
5.4%
6.6%
4.'%
LTOebt$2144.4 mil. LTlntIt,.a $165 nil.
463
49.
56.1
65.1
300.5
84.9 111.-4
184J
Ind. $362 nil 11cap'lll!ases.
1232
I59J
302
76.8
1102 154J
253.
9'2
(T0Ia1111er8s1: CD"I'llI'age: 5.5x)
(44% of c.p1)
13.31 11.3% 40.1% 38.9% 371" 39.9% 40.11 41.51
UUK, UncapitlliDd Annual .. lI1I:ls $159.8 mill.
5.7%
3.6%
Z9%
12%
1.6%
1.9%
P..,.lon liability NaIll.
1.8'
PM Stocl $300.0 mi. PIlI. Dlv'd $17.3 m.I.
1032
102.3
2712
:J6O.1 379.4
211.1
10.0 259J
6 miL shs., $50. 5.75% eompany-oblg., COllY.trust
398.1 265.8 356. eD33 687.4
624.0
926. 1581.3
pf"d.Ea.Ih. aYN'. irto 1.51899 orTOSCDCClI'llImI'I
496.
3333
381.4
521.6 575.5 1527.1 1370.3 2244.1
(6~cACap'l)
II i1bl S3Z.92fsh.
2OJ% 11.6% 5.5" 10.3'
9.1%
8.5%
8.4"
8.8"
CClImIon Stock 144.694,491 .hI. (50%deap~
37n% 14.0% 7.9% 17.5'
12.8% 11.3'
IS oI1W31taC1
11.3'
'33%
IllARKET CAP: $4.5 bliion (Kid Cap)
3OJ% 12.8%
.9% 15.5'
8J%
9.0%
9.3% 10.1'
92');
CURRENT POSITION
17%
18%
29%
31%
315%
301
18%
'1199 9I2lMlO
BUS.. ESS: Tosm Cap. is lie lilrgesl independent ref ... d petmea", I"ILI
......
82.1
80.6
80.'
Ro_
967.8
2ll5.4
273.'
INn produds in .. U.S . will IVfning opemtlDl1S in CA, NJ. WI\,
1077.3 1173.4 1827.1 PI\, L & LA Aafd AIiance reftlery, QIOO; Wood River 18finery,
~mory (UFO)
115.5
100.8
6t'OO;
retail mlOJ Isseb (E.o:on-Nodt.-st).
2.00; 76 ProcIudI Co..
Currenl Assets
1519.0 164-4.5 2976.3
(BP: EsI:
1275.0 4ID7;CIde K Cap . 5196;refining BfKIl1'!ai rntcag ...
AcclsPayabie
651.4- 857.7
aa&tI (EJo:on.
151.5 cmsI, 1285; west 00IiISI. 12.'93); NIlii ~
1.6
Dob""'"
751.7
748.0 1432.0
Olhof
The final quarter of 2000 was Ilkelfi a
1404.7 1607.1 2858J
CurRInt Liab.
good one for Tosco CorporadolL Re m
Put Est'd '17..
ANNUAL RATES Pn!
ing margins on the East Coast remained
1986
1985
100.80
45.19
.03
27
.10 d'.30

Target Price Range


2003 2004 200.

..A'

...... lL~J

1.0%

33.8
24.1

18.8

~~,-,
.,1111

:::'113'~:
1~ 1~

1984
133.13
dH9

30.4

ilcll:M!s rl!'5IDn

olIN

37.9
19.8

DIV'D
YlD

P fl

137 P.~",.
.M .... 12.0"'
trw:ded
6.0

140

125

10.3

' .... 1 :':.

PROJECTlO,,!,_
AnnlTotzI
Price
G.tn
Return
75
ZS"

+60%
Insider Dect.kJns
JF.",_JJAI
000
0 0 0 0 2 0
o 1 10 0 0 0 0 1
011000002

..."".
...

a.a
4.'

i:.Dr:5=-~~~

200~5

t':1:'

a.2
4.a

a.a
5.2

High:
Low:

8 O(,r;in_:15Jgl1i)\FTNE
PIRAlIl 0 , 54

31 PIRAm

I~ECEHT
PRICE

14.3
.82
1.0%

1 yr.
3 yr.
5"..

5.1

4.8

-11.0
133.6

19.7
83.4

2001 ClVALUfUNEPUB~IIC. O~5"


115.511 1150..15 SaIos po- III
'157.75
Uti
liS 'Cuh_po-Ill
7.75
U2
UtI Elmlngl per III II.
.2!
.J2 Dh'dl Dec:I'dpi!' III C
~1t1
.1. I Ciji'I 8po-lIlin; po- '"
J.JIJ
17.15
:lUJ B'" VoIuo po- III
3J.l5
I.... IConnwon Iha 0u1st8
1..
AV;
PIE_
RIIIlivI PIE Ada
.IIJ
;,;;; ~
A~ Ann'l DiY'dYJIId
.7l'

,_

...

.......::...

12022
7J%
313.9
213.7

143152 :16.3%
5.'"
308.4
:w
281.1
515

41.8%

41.8%

U%
114.3
1554.6
2213.0
8.9%
12.4'
12.4'
'4%

2.0%
31.4
1458.9
2408.3
8.9%
11.7~

11.4%
14%

",.'"

HI

1:/5
:11511
12.ft
Il""

,8.5"1.

Ann'J

:/41511

"",",,":::ill

E O.RANYfRRORSOR0MI5"'ONSH[R[lN.ThispulllQDli5~"Mmiber"s~,~iIIlInaI'R!.
u hmIMIied ... rtfJ pIIIIed. IRl:Mlri: II" d1B .... II" IMlI iar ~
q

II"II'MdiIJ

II"

*Utr'ic

48.'"

.""

1:1118

"'" ~=::'"rl '''''

11.5"1.

14.""

'"''

'" '"

1%

SouItrwesI:~ 121M: B2II)'WiI)'


ml18f)', 4133. Sold Avon ref"nery, 9100;
SerrinoE FertMIz8r. 04S3. Owns The Oil ShalB Cap. wfpltlpertills n
UT 100 CO. Empls. about 24,600 (12J99~ Stk. CIWr*S:
& di".,
5.3% (4,(1() proxy). Ctrmn. & CEO: T1lor'rm D. O'Uaily. Pra: JIIf.
I8non F. AIItn. Inc.: NV. Addr. 1700 EBst Putnam AWKIUIIl.
Old
Gnlenwi:tt, CT 06870. TIL: 203-698-7500. www.bIco.com.

orr.

Tosco's prospects
for 2001 suggest
earnings
should continue expanding
nicely. Demand for gasoline and distlllates seems set to advance between 2%
and 3%, while refining capaclty Is likely to
be little changed_ Thus, refining margins
are likely to remain in the favorable range.
The caveats here
are that economic
growth, though \Jkely slower, remains on
an upward trajectory and that there are
no rapid declines in oU prices. In addition.
we are looking for retail margins to return
to normal; again, this embodies the Inherent assumption of reasonable economic
~
and 110 rapid changes In oil prices.
usual, we focus investors on this issue's
long-tenn
potential . Tosco's
quarterly eamlngs can be volatile. reOecting wide swings In downstream margins .
However, it has a good record of growing
earnings on an annual basis. owing to its
strategy of expanding via acquisition and
a focus on operating efficiencies. Moreover.
our sense is that the demand for gasoline
and distillate will out pace refining capadty addItions over the next few years, a pasitive factor for margins .
Charles Clark
December 22. 2000

Jan. ~

:.'2opifl

pWlld

7.5"1.
45
T15

3m &hr,
~
tJ.ft Rnm l1li TaIII Cap'
17.5"1. RIbn Ill! Shr. EqIiIy
ConoEq
115.5"1.R.........
AD DlY'ds to Net Prof

_
,Hi. __ ._:
M_ 3; ~
July 1. Oct. 1. (0) AssLM* aXIY. d a>-oblig.
Stocl .. ric.Stl.b111ly
bus!: 1*1. (E)
do not un to lMual ~u..
Price Growth ~ ... 1nncIt
due to changes in shal1!Soutstanding.
Elmlngs PrMllctl.b111J
r1IIiIIa MId is fQrided wkhoul. ~
d
tN.

on.

"""

1=)Mu;In
'75
1515 HoI ,,",Il(
"'.5"1. klCOQlTuRdt
1.2% HIIPruI1M-aln
135 W_; Cop'I(lnlll)
14"

pU:Ii::*fI. ~

II"

p1lGd.

I',

6S
80
40
:

II:

11-.

TRIARC CDS. INC NYSETRY


I
I

-""'
"
"""""

lIIEUIIESS

(lJlll.MMl.I!I)

.8S

2OO~5 PR~EC11ONS

i':'

15.~

5.4

2.B

""'"

~I:f

':.

Ann'I TDtaI
Retum

iIlbft!os

""

A. J J A I
0 0 0 0 o 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0
.. 5l1li1
000
0 0 0 1 0 1
ln5ti1:uUanal Decisions

",

21

21

::~,

M~

20

9577

33.0
14.0

,,:2Tl

26.1

9.S

16.8

9.S

7;; T'\:

fer;~

,II

-'11

...

14.4

27.8

10.0

11.5

28.3
12.4

/\

28.0
1Ei.8

22.1
14.8

1111111111

--

",,1

'.

,II

'.

-,

..
.- .'

.'

..

..

..

,...

IIIIILI

eo"'
......
Receivables
Inventory

Cumlnt Assets
Acds Payable
OeblDue

79.3

61.7
23.1
4n.ti

CumlnlU8b.

'm

3.1

2.8

2'391

81.3

.......

Est'd'l7'1t

,,"-

-.
.

..

--

Book ViI!Ilull

58.8
278.i'
55.6

7.5%
10.0%
7.5".
1.5%
..
-

5~r;~

QUARTERLYREVEMJESJ' roIlj
lIu.31

Jun.30

S~~;
DK.31

1!117 205.' 226.1 275.0 154.8


1991 172.0 232.9 247.0 163.1
1999 178.2 25D.8 250.7 174.3
2DOO
19.4 21.3 22.6 24.7
2001 24.0 25.0 25.0 2f.O

.....
c

1997
1991
1999
2000

2001
co!end.r

1996
1997
1991
1!!19

EAJUM'GS PER SHARE A a


Maf,'1 Jun.30
Dlc.31

's~~io

d.06 .1.07
.115
.16
.02
.22
.59"
Jun.30

NAIF
Full

f_

861.3

815.0
854.0

au

1/ID

Full

f .. ,

.33

.09

"d.6e

.115
'.10
.JD

.26

S~~.30

NO CASH OIViDENDS
BEING PAlO

2000

NAIF
NAIF
NAIF
Ni

.10
.12
.31

.36
.32
.33
.34
Ql/ARTERLYONIIENOS PAIl
l.r.31

209.'
9.7
-.

042.2
139.0
Put

llYn.

1011100

58.

58.3

ANNUAL RATES
d ..... (po.- .. )
Re'l'llnues
''Cash FiCJw"

.ndar

313.5

10.0
132.8
201.1

Other

co!-

''''

261.0
67.7
048.8
34.0
409.5

(FIFO)

OIhor

(Small C-.pl

Dtc.31

.36
110
1.35
fUll

fur

NMF
NMF

NMF

..

..
..

..
..

..

NMF

NMF

..

NMF

..

"""..

BUSINESS: TrRrt: Companies,


Inc. hnchises
Amy's fastfood
restalRnls
(3,249 iI lJP'AIion .t &'2O'()o). Mly'~ whidl lpeciillil8s iI iWw-fOilSled
undwdles,
muli-bnnds
with T.J. Cilnamons' products, prmany gowmeI: cirllWnon rnIs and mffBes,
Bnd PasbI CaJnecOOn's products, manly pasta dilhes. In 1997,
355 ~ny-owned
Adly's una 'M!I'9 sokt to hnchisee. Acq'd

1l'8.

103.0"-

..

NMF

..

....

<10

UO

U5
iii
~5
11.15

--

~.:
':;; ~
II.D

3<5%

3<5%

4.8
19.7
83.4

lIIII!'IOIIShl Outs1'U

'--

17.5
D

".IE ....

.'11 ..
RIII1iYI PIE Rdo
A'fII Anll1 I:h'd Yilld

'.0 O....

~J::'.)

3D.0 N-tProIl
""-"" Incom. Tu RIll
.... ""'I1M
W_g Cop'111no1ll

...""

3.0
"'" 1a.0
"'" '"';&:::-".\~

20IJ

/iii
.511

C"'_gporoh
Book vnl JIll" Ih C

JlO

Shr.
SmI
r5Jll R...,.. an TDIII C.'
12."" R_"'SIr.E~

.~""
,.....
7.""

4
~

'.ID

EamlnUI pII' III A.


Dlv'dl Dtd'c1 pII' III

11 RftWlUI'($IIJI)
34Jll 0

5.5

17..0
4D.DS

21.3
3.1
135.7

2001 eYALUEUlEPIJB~C. OU5


<65 RIVIIIIIIS",M A
l25
1.65 ~CuhFbr" pII' sh
210

1.2D
M!
.H

12....

iii

RetlinMt

Hi AI DiY'd.

tEl ConI Eq
Nn Prof

2fJJIIJ

25.0
'-65
Hi

125

:11""lD
no
4D.DS
2'-""

820

3.0
>DO

...

'-""

."'
H'

T.J. Cinnamons. 9.196. DivesMd specialty dyes, 12197 & taxIIes,


4196. Sold &1appi9 bewnge unit, 1CWO. Has about 100 empbrtel, 3,832 dIss A cormon
shMIhc*iln.
orran
& Onctcrs con1mI 42% of amnon.
(5100 Proxy). ChUnw.n & CEO: Nelson PIlIz..
Pres.: Pea W. May. lnc..: DE. Addr.: 280 Pm Ave., New Yori, NY
10017. Tel.: 212-.451-3000. InIImtrt: www.hIrc.alIIl.

Trian: is actively searching


for a Arby"s is currently Triarc's sole busiplace to invest its significant amount
ness. Arbys dominates the roast beef
of cash. The company CWTeI1tlyhas over sandwich
segment
of
the
fast-food
$700 million In cash after completing the restaurant category In the U.s. and has
previously announced sale of Snapple to produced 15 straight quarters of posttive
Cadbury
Schweppes
(The
divestlture
samestore sales growth. Trlarc acts exclushould result in a one-time gain of over stvely as a franchiser, having sold all com$700 mlIUon In the fourth
quarter.) The
restaurants In 1997. Royalty
pany
pay.
company
also recently
completed
a $290
ments amount to 3%--4% of franchisee
million
debt financing. secured by Arby!> sales, making this endeavor a very predictroyalty payments and fees. Total debt now able SOW"Ce of both revenues and profits,
stands at about $310 million. We believe while requiring minimum Investment. The
the company is likely to use the same stra company currently has agreements In
tegy It employed when it bought Snapple place to open 1,000 restaurants over the
three years ago, when deciding how best to next several years.
utilize tts CUlTentcash. ThIs
centers The stock's TImeliness rank has been
on the purchase of an out-o -favor bust- suspended in view of the recent transness, with a strong brand Image, at a dis- action. Trlarc is C1.1I"rently
a company in
counted price. While many companies transition, which makes future projections
have attempted to employ a stmUar stra- very uncertain. However, we believe the
tegy. few have had the success that Trlarc recent decline in the market only Improves
enjoyed
with its purchase, subsequent
the chances that the company will be able
turnaround,
and
sale
of
Snapple to complete an acqulsi.tion at an attractive
Beverages. Another possible scenario In- valuation. 1bat said, Investors should note
volves the company repurchasing a sizable that we have not attempted to predict the
amount of Its own shares, while also de- retwn the company might generate from
voting additional resources to its existing such an Investment.
operations.
Jeremy S. Marks
December 15. 2000

r-lan

Yr Ilnds Sill cbsesI: to 12fJ1; )'1"1 ended d60; '93, d42; '94, d26j; '96, dl8t!; '97, IICIj.for ... div'd!II.: 5%, '85, '86. (E) ~
egL
of prD'" yr bsf. '94. For 5/1193-12/31193,
d56t!; "98, rf2; '99, 56;. Disc. ops.: '98, 8. don' sum due to chng. in shs. out. ( Sokl
sales: $7035 riI.; IPS: d$1.62 tom ops.. (BI lMJ, d47; Next
rpL 1atB-feb. (e) Incl. i1- bevaage unit, 1000. Fiscal '00 data ~ bma,
D.........
Ilar '96. E><d.00 __
....
:.112, .. ",.'" ".$282.
"".IIIBIIIsh.IO)I" mil. _",
nO. ""' ..... IG) s.-moot", r."",.
CI2CQl, VIIw IiIe ~
N ~
resernd. hcllllllMll!rill
is atuinell "RMa$ .....
to tie ~
..
i5 pMll!!! ~
..-ranIit5 ~
u,d.
1lif PUBLJSiI:R IS JIlT RE
Sln.E OR Nf'f ERRORS OR OIlISSlONS HEREIN.T1IIs plIbIicailnii 1h::Jy'" .......
5 -. nall<l:llllMrtil inl.... U$e. DflIII
fli
IR
-.recICf~iI."P'i'*IIl.~.CIIm'lImI.arvs.tlDr
ar
.
'.~
. ~CI"

tr;.

.., ...-

.....
""

1 yr.
3yr.
5 yr.

2000

....

......

.. TOT. R1lJRJI11I1IO
~

..

s.sso mll.on

,.

20

..,

...

MARKET CAP:

24

.'

32

12
10

On April 23, 1993, Nelson Peltz and Pet9r 1990 1991 19921993"- 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
.. ".35 39.59 33.10 2716 27.82 28.71
W. May (throogh OWG Acquisnion Groop) 47.00 4915 50.03
.. 1.82
acquired Vidor Posner's majority share
1.21
tn
d.01
1.42
.18
1.43
'-59
'.09
ownership of Triarc (incorporated in 1994).
.19 .1.73 .. '.34 d1l4 .19 '.68
.36
16
'.68
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
In July '996, Merrill lynch and OW led a
.. 2.>1 ~34 1.01
6.:l-milliol>-Shanl pUblic offering of Triarc's
1.4S
.95
1.12
.54
.54
.. 1.33
National Propane subsidiary, generating 3.57 3.34 d1.67
.59
.37 d5.61
23
'-39
.. 13.96 29.91 29.68
$117.4 million. late in 1998, Peltz and May 25.
.S
..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 58.S 73.5
made a "going private" proposal to pur..
..
.. .. .. .. .. 3.64 4.24
chase the remainingTriarc shares outstand..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
ing, bul wrthdrew the offer in March 1999.
.. 1062.5 1184.2 989.2 861.3 815.0 854.0
CAprrAl STRUCTURE.s
of 1011110
1215.3 1275.1 10585
DUll ~ 5 Yrs S10.0mm.
Total Delli $20.8 mIL
.. 12.2% 9.2'/, 12.0'
8.0% 11.5% 11.5'
9.7%
14.4'
14.04'
LT Intlrut $1.50 milL
LT Debt $18.2 mil.
.. 51.5 60.2 52.7 17.7 35~ 35.3
48.9 52.0
(100%ofCap1)
.. d21 d37.D dB.5 d20.6
d17.6
61. .... 6
11~
'-0
..
..
.. NMF
.. NMF
.. 572% 70.1%
"
Leases, UnClllpMliDd Annual rentab> $13.1 mil
..
NMF
NMF
hW
NMF
NNF
NMF
hW
1.4%
.8'
Penslolt liability None
d14.7
17.5
133.6
1362 158.2 1952 130.1
237.9
208.'
.. 612.1 763.3 5OO.S 604.8 699.0 850.9
363.8 307.8 488.7
PId Stock None
.. 40.0 20.7
92.5 86.5 d35.'
6.8 ".0
10.9 d166.7
Common Stock 20,305,170 shs.; 1,999,207 CI. B
.. S.O% .1% S.O% ~.% 6.6'
72.
NMF
6.9%
3'%
nonvoting IOhs.
..
.. NMF NMF NMF MoIF 103.0% NMF
u of 1Q131/DG
(NegatiYe Net Wa1h)
NMF
NMF
CURRENT POSrJ'K)N

- - - --

...
"'rl]jJ~

.h.,.. 10.

40

".

'

..

Target Price Range


2003
200. 200S

,"

...

..
'~,III',.

Nil

Jiii

Percent 15.0

38

26

901.

15.3
3.0

..

;;I!'II,III
..

F.

o
o

4.4
I.'

I,~:;r,

- ... . ,- t~_

....
....

DIY'D
198 ew..:MlF )1~Th'E
ff RAllO 1 38 YlD

Pf
RAllO

LEGENDS
2[l..ll. CI!tl fa.- p 5h
, RdIM
Pm SlrlCl1glh

~I1e%

PrItt
GaIn
50 (~2O%
35
+40%
Insider Decisions

16.~

Low:

-3 """'Ill"

SAFETY
TECHNiCAl
IIJ'

High:

25

I~ECENT
PIlICE

:1"

.......

Comp~
finudlll
5!NlIgth
Stock's
n:eStlIbUily
Pricil Growth Plirslilt.Q1

B
70
50

~
I

I '.

: II:

I I'

TRUE NORTH COMM. NYSElIl


3""\12""
3 "-",,"""
3 NN'lln1/1Kl

TJIIEUJIISS

wm
TECHNICAL

Ann'ITCIIaI
Price

a5

eo

GIin

~1

c.-. t'-

14.1).

"

4.9
31133

..

15.8

24.0
14.8

"'"

17

Pf
RA1ll

3(T'0I0i:11.l)!fl
M.~",: liJ

24.0
19.9

....

.. 1,1.' "I"II"'lIlllh,l'
.

",

.'

.....

'11""

....

..

14."

10.4
Bl

.4,5"
CAPITAl

15.88

" ...

14.1
1.14
4.'%

".7
1.13
4.0lI

13.6
.91
4.0lI

STRUCTURE

Coverage:

"-,,,

1.19
4.8%

132
1.00
4.6'

'.~

.. af III3QIDCI

9.51)

or Ca,'ij

luAs, Uncap/bllizMl

Annuall11nllls $75.3 miD.

PeftlJon

i! '99

NoIMI

\'S.

none in'96

PId Stoclr; None

...

(93% [( cap')
Common StGcIr; 5O,202JI06 stls.
IIARKET CAP: $1.1 blAIon lIBel Cap)
8I3OIlIO
CURRENT P05f1llN
'996
(lOlL!
55.0
137.2
232.'
Cash """"
1020.7
1035.9
RBOBivabin
76.9
89.0
75.6
Othe'
1246.9
1167.8
Currenl AS!I8Is
1174.0
1035.0
1039.4
1015.2
126.9
137.7
153.1
232..9
191..9
166.5
Othe'
CulT8nl UIIb.
1394.8
1310.0
1334.8

.....

32..

Tilrget Price Range


2003 z004 2005

"..,

12.4

.92
4.5%

l:W

152
J1
4.9%
341..0

<l.'"

<l."

:t:L."

<l."

13~

155
~2

18~
1m
1..1\

131
.88
3.1%

3n.l 403.7
2825.0 2995.0
13.6% 126"
30.3
25.7
28.5% .... 6%
1,5%
8.9%
13.8 d16.8
5.5
35.'
200.0 207J

459.1

.84

338.1
3533
2240.0 2291 2431.2
12.1% 10.31 112\
2f.6
16.8
21.1
53.6\
51.9% 50.5\
6.41
8.1\
'.9%
d1U
.9
~4
~.1
313
371
163.0
183.3
1911
10.3%
11.3%
4.5%

60\

HI

4.3\

9.5%
10.3"

11.8\

11.6%

11.9%

2.2'4
M

4.4\

11..9% ".8\
1.8%
5.9%
48\
54'

83\

15.6%

125
'00

'I'

..

10.9%
33.0
30.3\
1.5"
d4t5
5.'
2221

'" "

'"

>0
25
20

"

'"

15

.::~....

20.16

'10
.60
.7.
1011

"'.03

42\

21.41
2.00
'25
.60

21.59
1..54
I.SO
.60

6.09

6A:!

."

...."

JIll

".U<

18.1
1.ll4
.94
1.1-4
2.7%
1..7%
1..2%
493.1 120U
1242.3
..
..
NA
14.21
8.7' 11.1%
551
89.4
2IB
50.5%
n.9%
445%
5.8\
4.8\
5.6%
d48B 11234.4 d160.S
35.9
15.3
S15

"2

241.3
14.6%
11.0%
14..9% 11.5%
.~\ 5.6%

51%

8.
80
80

18.0

281B

301.4

2O.0lI

22~%
22~%

20.6"
15.0%

21%

13.9%

39%

29.46
2.92
1.19
.00
119
7.SO

.....
115
1.00

1.9%

143U
NA
14..9%
88.1
~.%
\
d147.9
36.6
386.4
22.3\

..

23.5"
15.71

33%

SU8
J.JS
~15

.80

1.11J
U.
51...

3yr

5yr

2001
SU5

~SG

.. """

7B.8
112.3

300
10048

CYALUEUNfP\IB.IIC.

Nn Raft pII' sh
"Cash FIcM" pwsll

.1..28 Enlnp par Jb .to


JiJ DiY'd DKI'd pw Ih ..
,.15 CIp' Spondingpor III
11.15 BDOIl YlIkIIIIIiII' Itt C
gu

"."
......::
:.;.;;;
1541
1....
11.5'10
118
41.l1%
7.1"
d15.
W
4<S
21.lll
D.Jll
17.01

'I.lOt. RE1l.IaII1M1O

"

.......

"' .. "Pit ....


R_PIERdo
Avg Ann'l Div'd YWd

1118 R","IIeII~
1_
Gross8."~1
11.11 _M
....
115 NIl ProIi (lnII)
41.11 Bc:orM Tu RaIl
NIl Pn>IilM....
dS4I W_g~'(lnl)
55.. laI;.T~~
90 Sh,.Eo,..,
'9,5% Rnxn on Talal CIIp'I
Rnxn "ConE,
on StIr. Equity
20."" __

7"'"

,~""
S,\

ADDiY'dsto Nft

flrgI

7.5

03-45
51.45
05
~15
.71
1.JQ
1<..

....
W

uo

-'"
"75
Dm8

II-'"
118
41.0%
U%
W

28.'
f10
17,5%
17.5'10
115%
15%

BUSINESS: True Ncr1J Cammunic!ti:lns, Inc.. is 8 WIJIttwide 1IdYeftisilg axnpany. 0pwatBI TN Media .1Id TN Serva.s. ChallgllCl
l'IlrI'Ml fn:m FooIe, Cone & BekIilg,
12nM. AcquirBd Wti1s Inl"l,
3197. MBged wi1tI am.I, JICObs, Kenyon & Eckhardt, 12197. Has
avw 300 cfIiC8I i! .,... 1\811 110CDUftb"i8II. Owns 41 % inIllr8st in
Modtwn Medii! Poppe Tyson. For8lgn operAons: 26%
1)9 con-

sol l'8VenU8. Has over 12,200 lIIIlPD)'eeS; 2,475 shrt*h.


orricers
& dinldln
CM'll 8.1% of eemnon stlc:k; PUbIcis, 9.5%; NorthwBsI.
Mu!uat, 5.8% (4AlO PlOXY). Channan & ChiBf ExecuIwt otral':
DM:I Bel. CEO
FooIB, ConI & Bet\i1g Wandwi:Ie: Bnlndan
RYlln. 111COf'PCll'Dd: DE.. AdlbsI: 101 East Erie St, Chicago, IL
60611. Telephone: 3127517000.lnIiIlm8t:
www.h8north.axn.

'ITue North Communications


recently
suffered
the loss of Its largest
acPut
at'd'S7'.
ANNUAL RATES
Pat
count. FoUowmg a spirited review process
n",
1n",
"_11*",1
agalnst Omnlcom Group's BBDO World5.5~
Revenues
4.0%
11.5%
v.1de unit, the company's Foote, Cone &
''Cash Flow"
10.5"
75"
3.5"
13.0"
4.5'"
Belding subsidialy learned in early No5"'''
.. 3.0" vember
"'%
that DaJrnler<::tuysler is moving
17.Sll
Book Value
-1.5%
Its Chrysler and Jeep business to the comFull
ea> QlJAR7ERL1_EVEIlUESIS"')
petition. The lost account will result In an
, lIar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Y.,
annual revenue shortfall of $140 mJllion.
1997 288.2 301.3 294.4 343.0 1204.9 or almost 10% of the corporate total, and
1991 280.0 311.5 294.7 356.1 1242.3 an earnings hit of about SO.50 a year.
I. 303.' 355.7 356.7 '23.8 1439.' There will be a 18D-day transition period,
lOOO 331.1 315.1 381.2 4SU "s.I/I
during which management expects to
",
2001 Sit
1610 maintain the eurrentlevel of profitability.
:w 4M
EARNN;S PER SHARE A
CoJ.
Full We have lowered
our share-net
eslIar.31 Jun.30 SeD.30 Dec.31 Y., timates In response, although manage.59
1.25 ment's new guidance to the fmancta.l rom~
1997
.11
.22
.33
1198
.116
.75
1.50 munity asswnes a couple of positive fac.38
.29
1199
.10
.85 ""1.79 tors, too. 1lley include True North's plans
.43
.38
lOOO
.20
.46
.JS
2.15
.54
to divest, some tlme after the first quarter
l801
.ss .45 .JS 2.2D of
.25
200], its equJty stake in Modem Media.
QIJAIlTERLIIlMlElll9PAIl
""
c.>
F.n whose lasses are expected to total about
lIar.31 JudO S.D:30 - Dlc.31
Yn, $0.16 a share this year. Meanwhile, manIncI.r
1991 .15
.15
.80 agement also dtes improved momentum
.15
.15
1997
.15
.15
.80 elsewhere In the busJness portfolio, which
.15
.15
.15
.60
1.
.15
.15
.15
includes some sizable account wins in
1199
.15
. 15
.80
.15
2000. All in all. we have cut $0.25 a share
.~~
lOOO
.1
.15
.15
.15
fA) Pmury eanWIgs b 1996. DiJr.rtBd t/MQ- '00 Q3, 1_. Hex!: &TJiJgI report due 1* Jan. avaiIBb6e. Ie) Ind. Irtang.
after. 1997 6d1nS am ~ fonnB. Exd. extril. (81 Goes 8X .bout Dee. 15. Nert diY. Il'IMting
lion, $9.98 share. (0) In

from our 2001 earnings call. We have left.


our target for this year unchanged.
Ironically. thls news hlt '!rue North
during a year in which it had made
significant operational strides. Wins of
business with Boeing, Taco Bell, and Compaq provide evidence of this fact; Compaq
had been the Industrys largest advertising
move this year prior to the DalmlerChrysler loss. At the same time, the company
has done a nice job In the acquisition market filling out its global network and
moving into fast-growins nonadvertlsing

=~bIe

.......

~=.

....

...."

....,

52.

22.5

, I.l'

(7"

LIablIItJ

.47.0

-1yr

t~""

ToCaIDebC'In.1m . Due In 5" ....$114.1 ml.


IT Debt 134.0 mil
LTInternt $2.5 m"
(Totallntsest

18.8

1HS

.. ..

15,.

....

lID

...

1988
1989
1991
199~
1995
1987
1990
1993
1994
1984
1985
1986
1514
15.49 15.22 15~
17.61 18.79
1~08
18.90 18A:! 19.16 20.41 22.!i1
1.78
1-'0
1.51
1.41
1~
1.15
1.93
W
1.94
1.65
1.66
.m
.99
BIl
1.00
1.41
1.1!
1.D1
1.15
.83
'-54
'.08
.80
.60
.60
.60
.60
.60
.80
.60
.55
jS
.95
.93
.44
.60
.88
.39
.~ 1.10
.88
151
1.10
8.34
7.55
8.76
118
1.9.
8.62
9.10
951
8.48
1.08
1.09
1.83

,...

17.0

1.6%

01V'll

- --

Percerrt I.a

02302

Z1 .

27B
16.3

120

...c , ,
1"'1""

"., .. 1"1
I.'~~':':I,
..

21B
15B

PHA1ll

""'"
'1"""'1

96 .h.....
58

80
80
>0'58

P ..

38

l'ere3Kln

RItIrn

..,. ,,,M ,,,M

13.8
9.3

Reirirr
PIEe SlII1i1'1gt1
~
4181
5i* 2195

(i~25~1
23"
-+60%
13%

Insider OK.ion.
DJF."
.....
A
000
0 0 0 0 1 0
000000010
000102010
Institutional
DeciakHI.

...."".
....
....

LEGENDS

15_~)
8.9

CC:d ':m ~

2OlB45 PROJEC1lONS

"'".....

18.0
11.3

_.
2.for'
2-b''

.95 O.oa. Malkd)

.-TA

High:
Low:

jFCEIIT
PRICE

service

dJsciplines.

There is a great deal of speculative interest here now. With potential ellent
conflicts with DaJrnlerChrysler no longer
an issue. True North actually becomes a
very attractive takeover candidate. We
think that the company would fit nJcely
under the umbrella of a large group like
Omnicom or Interpubllc.
In lJeu of a takeover. this stock has
decent
long-term
recovery
potential
from its depressed
valuation.
But an
earnings-driven price reoovery could take
some time to materialize .
Rick S. Plummer
November 24. 2000

In '99: $487.8 micornPln/rs Flnudlll StlHglh


~,
adj. b sPlils.
Stock"
riel SUbilly
gai! (baes~ '88, (1_); '89, ~); '91, (S1.71r
~ &arty Feb. ~1n8tII
dna: Jam. (E) Exdudes Modem Mlldia (no tJrwer lXXIlIOIi- Price Growth P.rUiIteftc:e
'95. (&OJ): '97. ($1..42); .... 172.): '99. (9llj; ~ ..... 1. J.~1. Cd 1.. . _
"" datod). (F) Does"", ocId duo ..
II llXlO. v.ue IN ~
Inc. AI
re5l5ftIII. FadIIIl II"IlIImII is lIIfiIIiIB Iram ~
bIieWIIIlO tle ~
MI i5 JroWDed wMIauI ~
rI ~ bid.
THE f'UIIUStl'R IS NOT RE PONSBlE OR MY ERRORS OR OMISS1011SHERE. TlIi!,pubIi::UIn iI.~
fGrtutnciler's_. ~ftlmllvse.
o~
I
I
I',
: II:
d l1li)' br IIp'aIIuceIL ....
II" ~
it ." pItI(. ~
II" .,..
bnl, II" I.IRII b ~
II" ~
111)' pi--.:l1I IIIednric' fIIlI**In. 5l!IIice a pOlUt.

Pile::

'1:;

""""'''lI.

A
55
. NMF
II-

TYSON4 FOODS
'A' NYSEYSN
.... _

TIIEUIIESS
s.AfETY
JO

3 ... 1Ql/iO
4 ..... "...

TECHNICAL
IfTA

HIgh:
8.8
Low:
LEGENDS
9.D I -C:,1511F.-

]~-2 ~;~

(1.oo-Mark!t)

200:>45 P'WEC1P-~S
AM' Tolar
Pric:I
GallI
Rnrm

Nor 1 sjJII
1-401"'2.'-'

35

""

...:::,'I' '..~'
...:::. ..,.. _, ..
"

ZQ2

01

55

.,.

"".37

46.'

ANNUAl RATES

5._

...........

"'1

''Cash FkNr"

....

Dividends
Book Villue

.-.
Y..r

351.9
288.8
348.0
961.0

"""'"

831.0

Put

Pal
1nIL

1.5%
45"

..

255"
8.5%

lec..Ptr

'997
lll9l1
1.
2000

,.28

151.

Y..,

1997
1991
1999
2IlOO
2001

1592
1S71
1953
1881
1843
1791
1807
SIIOD
1125 SI$I
EARNINGS PER SHARE

)ac.Ptr
.20

Sep.Pe
.22

.21

.24
.25

Co"
.....

11.0"
16.0"
18.~

7.'"

CllmBIll
1522
182.
m8

Mlr.Ptr

Jun.Ptr

.22

11

.1.

.20

1682
2068
1815

1m

1151

d.07

.28
.34
.34
.18
.11
.18
.Ill
J5
.15
.25
QUARTBU.Y DNCEND$ PAIl C

1II,.!1 lOA.3D So1>JO DIo.!I

1191

1997
lll9l1
1999
2000

...... ,
F.,

Y..,

~
T.I63
7'JDIJ
7QJ

,.-...
F.,

Y..,

.~

1.20

.711
M
F~I

Y..,

.02

.02

.02

.02

.08

.025
.025
.025

.025
.025
.025

.025
.025
.04

.025
.025
.04

.1
.10
.13

.04

.04

.04

SoUd.,.._
ai02;

d ~ ~

III! ~

-.n:d

II ~

28.0

23.8

16.3

14.9

Target Pric. Range


2.03 200. 2000

17A

85

50

3-tor-~

40

1,1

,
~

'1,

- -

---

32
2<
20
12

II......

'0

....

.'

..

.....

......

'.

..

.....

'"

...
.....

1,. .
3,..

5,..
1992 1993 199. ,99.,998
20.05 21Jl
23.<6 25.38 29.60
1.37
lA9
1.62
1.95
1.50
1.80
In,
.n
.70
Al
.40
.02
.03
JI3
.05
.ll6
.lMI
1..
1.04
.52
1.02
.96
1.07
4.71
6.76
39.l
6.16
S.92
7.09
206.07 207.'" 220.'" I 217.80 217." ,217.43
161
16.5
15.7
41n
172
18.'
1.10
.96
1.09
1.08
1.05
2.51
1\
.5\
.2'.4
1\
3922.1 4168.8 4707.4 5110.3 55112 6453.8
12...
11.5% 11.7\ 11.7% 12J\
7.ilI
135.8 146.
176.5 188'
204J
239J
145.5 1605
180.3 202.9 2192
88 .
40. \ 385\
41A\ 39.0\ 38.1\ 37.0\
3B\
.\ U\
3B\
3.'"
111.9 214.t
US.l
7215 654.0 1124.5
&45.9
726.5 920.5 1381.5 1620.5 1806.'
9601 1360.7 12B!l.' 1457.7 1541.7
822.5
11.6% 11.1'1.
4.4%
.2'.4
9.1% 9....
17.7 .... 16."
13J\
5.6\
".9\
1~"
172% 16.1% 12.9% 14.11% 14.0% 4.5%
3\
2\
3\
6\
19\
8\
19.03

.,

." ."

......

29.70
1.95
AS
.10
1.36
1.60
213"
20J

2001
1999.
32.40
3221
1175
246
UO
US
.11
1.20
.IS
.16
.10
.13
.11
1...
1.34
159
US
8.53
.Jl

32.10
153

...

...,

2JO."

228."

... -

...

25.8

"8

"'.1

30.0

IOU

282

"-VAUJE LJIE PIJ8.I:. 0:H5


8l1li pII' Ib A
-Cull now- pII' It!.
Ewninp 1* ibM

42.15
175
2111

.' -"'
",

Dlv'dl DKl'd~IhC

CIp' SpoMlnI ~ '"


led YIIuI ~ Ih D

,... W_.

...,.
"'"

Inc. pmdUC8!l, mao:ets, and distibl/klS


vilkJe-enhanced, fresh and 1roz8l1 poulfy prodLJdl, fku, com
torlila, and chips. Also has lYe swi1e, anmal feed, and peIfood
ops. Map QlSts.; groary chaiIS, wholesale cktbs, bod dBts., faslfood hnctrisel, n1INary a:mni:lsla"iill, and schooII. IbnclS: Holy
Fsnns. Tjo5OIl,and WMM!/: Acq'd. Hudson Foods, 1198. Exports:

7.4%

1.511

,US

-~. ,..
-,. ,.~...r..)
,..

Tyson Foods,

n......

11.1
......
,PlIO Rdo
11.1
240
.98
1.15
R*tin PIERdo
U\
5\
.6\
Av; Ann' Dtv'd Y"lIi'd
7425
6355.7 7414.1 7362.9
11.6\
9.ilI
9."
'Ill m o-.fi"., bgiB
1M
230.' 276.4 291.1
l00J
lMA
276.8
Ht1""'ft
64.7\ 40.8'1. JU1l XIS InI:Ullt To"
43.6\
2B\
1.4.....
3J\
2.2%
2A "''''''lIbgiB
Cop' tlnlll
851.5
934.1 739.9
125
ISO
1450
15581 1966.6 15151
Loo.T .... IlIIII (InII)
2Jl15 2105 Shr.
1621.5 1970.4 2128.0
.1\
8>\
7.5%
'0% 7.... Rnn GIIToW c.p'1
11.5\
5.1\
13.0\
'.0% Rnnll1 Shr. Ell....
10.2%
4.0% 11.6%
7.... Rmlud ill CIllIIIEq
,,\
22\
11\
2l%
21\ AI Dlv'dI kJ N.l Prof
140
.5\

~ TOT. RTUR111a.aI

"

BUSINESS:

--

18

Ull

1.111
1751
'Ll%

41S
31.111

~'"
l25IJ
125ll

1635
fUll

'S....

'''''
,511

fl5CllJ '99 sales. Has aboul 69,000 employe. 33,700


sharehoklers.
otrlClfl & DI1IICtn own 49% rI cmmon
....
(99.9'"
rI CIlIs! B 8h1..); Bri1son Partners, 6.1"'; Sanford
Bernsl:9lII, 8.1%; (12199 ProIy). Ctmn
& CEO:.klhn Tyson. Inc.:
DE. AdtnIs: 2210 WesI. OaldllWJl, Springdale, Artansas m64.
TelephoAl: 501-29Q-.4000. InI"
'IIWW.tym'l.c:an
of

The company also has no plans to buy out


fiscal ZOOObehind it.
ear ended
p- .trugg1ing competitors. preferring Instead
tember 29th.) EarnIngs fell off sharply
to see this capadty removed from the marover the course of the year, dragged dOWJ1 ket place. All told, we look for Tyson to
by an oversupplied chicken market. 1bese ~enerate nearly 5200 milllon in free cash
conditions were particularly apparent in
ow In fiscal 200 I. which can be used for
chicken breast prices, which have been stock repurchases or paying down debt.
considerably below the levels seen in The company continues to refine its
recent years. The poultry giant's results
product mix. In fact, the aforementioned
were also set back by an outbreak of Ex- pnxlucUon cutbacks have been directed at
otic Newcastle disease in Its Mexican flock commodity-like product lines. At the same
that derailed what was shaping up as a time. the poultry supplier has been gain
solid year for international operations.
ground in value-added offerings. To
The company is not out of the woods h P drive sales, Tyson has been targetl~
yet. For more than a year, Tyson has been existing customers, with the objectlve 0
making efforts to improve the prld.ng envi- supplying these accounts with a oomplete
ronment by scaling back its own prod- range of chicken products .
uctlon. This move, however. has done little These
.hares are best suited for
thus far to improve the supply/demand
patient investors. In recent months, the
equa~on, suggesting that others in the in- stock has rallied. some off' of its 52-week
Jow. Still, with earnings lIkely to remain
dustry aren't following suit. As a result.
we look. for negative earnings comparisons
under pressure over the next couple of
t~rsist
at least through the first half of ~uarters. this momentum wUlllkely be dif2 1. On the positive side, even under
lcult to sustain. Eantings. thOUgh, should
these market conditions, cash generation
rally as market oonditions improve. sup""
should remain healthy. With little need for porting healthy capital appredation over
new production capadty, the company has the pull to 20032005.
scaled back its capital-spending program.
Robert M Greene. CFA November 10. 2000

inJ

,horgo:.... dlr'"

gg.201
--... egs. report due Nc. 13th.
151>oIM_.
,.no.
Sept .S962
", Dee.
.35 Ne:d:
~) Indudes
intangibles.
In 1999:
nib, ; ~ S1Ddl.. ra Stibiltty
(CJNBxtud.
abOu1Oec. 1st NeJl1dMdend
.~hano.
PraGrowth~
meeIirlg about Nov. 20th. Apprm. d!w"d.IXJll
(E) In miIion!I, ad)!s1ed b sbck IpIIIs.
Earnings PrMldabilly
'ts 1I!5InIII. FIdIaIl ~
is atQQd IIalll !IOIIftI!I ....
III be niItR ..-.:l is powiII!d ...,... ~
d
PId.
ORNN ERRORS OR OMISSlQttSHfREIII. Thisptdc:Ulnis
KdJ'1Dr~s~,
n~
opart

I
'.
*'*-it. dlB" .... G II5IIlII ftr
II'
.
II" *trgjc:
"
sertkI! II

~')eptF""",.,.
.... onMmlllgl.
...
3Olh. (B) Dikrted
F'r'IMy 8lIffIi'IgI beftn "'1.Exr.i ~~.
m.
(bss): '88, $0.15; '94, ($0.92); '96,
'99,
IP ZlPlI. \/I~I!l.me ~
Tllf PUBUSl-ER IS f)T Rf

24.3
17.4

1.5%

2l!1 'lysoo Foods I. probab~ happy to ~ut


788.3

"II. to"'"
U~

11.0%
10.0%
75"
28.'"
18.5'"

E_

E....

320.1
149.1

Est'd'l7.,"

SIilll!.1IIILl

Mlr.Per Jun.
r Slp.P.

2001

1596':4

1726."

330.6
182.3

CummtLiab.

802.0 543 .
989.4 1014.4
104.7
16.1

Debt Due

22.'

30.3

631.0
.... 1
103.5

(FIFO)

CulR!rrt Assets

''''

--~
~ntDry

13.8

YlD

.h.,.., '.0
,,.delI
3.0

..,

23.1

13.8

P !tI

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 _991


10.11
13.09 18.67
7.04
929
411
5.93
.71
.9B
'-19
.19
.61
.3<
.46
.35
.52
.60
.10
.35
.20
2B
.01
.01
.01
.00
.01
.01
.01
.
.69
.45
.80
11
.61
1.78
2Jl
3.24
.46
1.40
.81
l.lMI
1!l1.4lI 1l1;:1,.ll7
I 204.92
"5.70
"'.74
"''''
15.0
lU
151
71
. 5
182
17.9
.89
1.13
.~ .n 111 112 115
.3\
.1\
.1\
.5%
J\
.2\
.2'.4
CAPrrAL STRUCTURE .. of 711.
3825J
TQtlI 0.111 $1608.4 mil.Da
In 5 V,. $1153.1 mill
11.8%
LTDebt $1459.3 mi. LT IJrterasl: $95.6 mil
123.4
(lT intInII: umed: 4.3:r; tIlal irTteresI:
120.0
aMlIiIge: 4.OJ:)
(40% of Cep1)
40....
Laue-, UncapitiliDd
Annual rentals $642 mil
3.1\
Peuion
Uabllty None.
PIlI StDct Ncq
1027
Common Stoct 225,300,000 Ihl. (60% d Cs:p'Q
950.'
Ind. 102,700,000 Cius B lills., which If8 entillld
883.0
to 10 votes eadJ. DivIlends on Class B lihs. can111%
not exceed 90% oflhose on CliIssA shs.
18.1\
MARKET CAP: $2.7 billion (Mid Clip)
17.7'11,
CURRENT POSmoN
Ill11
111100
2\

CA':~
Receivables

18.3

12.5

PE RAID 153

..

P...... nt '.0

57853

18.7

12.8

'fCr~

~I

...-- 'Ii :" ..

1 1 000
1
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 1 000

18.1

10.2

I"

D,IFMAMJJA

Institutional Declslona
101.
87
70

16.6

4191

0Cc,~,

Inskler Oeelalan.

PE
RATO 22 2(trOill9\U)!F
Medi." ITJ

un

320;

103
000
000

15.5
9.3

12

SlnIlglh

25 '1~1~1
+110% 21"

High

11.~
7.6

IJIV1)

jrPRICEElll

ill.., .....

"".SoI!.:1

65
10
40
:

II:

II' ,

WID

3 .... ".,

TECHNICAL

H;gh:
Low:

30.3
20.0

1III,L .

'0'

P.~nt 21.0

,,

;J"-

...
f

..

1985

..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..

..
..
..
..
..

..

11IIlLl

eo"'
......
Receivables

...

..

..

1711.0 37&0
1275.0 1981.0
739.0
501.0
13.0
25.0
-490.0 2ll:Q
1016.0 1266.0

CulTWinllillb.
ANNUAL RATES

""""11-"'1
s_

Past

Put

"Ym

-..
_.

''Cash FloW'

_._.

~~
Book Value

1997
l;sa
1999
2000
2001
Co/.1XI.r

1991
1;sa
1999
2000
2001

22.0
838.0
743.0

698.0

AaDPa_
00" Due
0th0N

.....,

C.pl

(lIld

392.0

'_(LIFO)

Co.

... ,... """'"

9.0

00".
CUmtnt Ass8ts

",.
-2.5%

5.0

842.0

T72.0
363.0

1982.0
691.0
30.0

490.0
1211.0

.......

Est'd'l7-'6
3.010

6.5"
NMF

7.0"

-.

29.0%

Q1JARlIRLYSALESII.,

9.010
6.010

&0"
FilII

1br.31 JWI.30 S;;;:30 Dec.31 Y..,


163.
1735
6941
1737
'838

,.

.696

1211
1547

1733

1497

'357

'304
'611
lJJlJ

1334
1430

'466

1312

1600 lf5G
EAIUINGS PER SHARf. A
'br.31 Jun.30 S~Ja Dlc.3t
.93
.97
.02

.45

1.06
1.16
.33
.62

1.25
.63
.07
.26

1.64
.64
. 2

om

6283

63.4
JJ/IIl
61111
FilII

Ya'

'.88

3.40

.84
US
2/10

."

....,

C> 2l1lQ. 'MIe 1M ~


ni[ PUBUSlt"RIS fC)T R[
tI
:lIlIIIII

J"

AI ~
SIn.[

- -- - --

1~.lrllllJI

"'-"

1994
199.
79.95
n.74
6.03
7.32
1.92
367
1.00
1.00
3.26
3.90
8.02 12.03
75.'7
63.04
, .7
8.'
.00
'.29
3.1%
~6'
6066.0 6456.0
10.3% 12.6'
314.0
318.0
169.0
314D
19.1% 33.0'
-4.9%
~8'
513.0
d75.0
1432.0 923D
945.0 1344.0
10.3\
16.8%
23.4%

. . ...

..

........

32
24

12

... ........
""" ...

" TOT. RTUIUI MIO

. .. ..
"

1999
2000
1996 1997 1998
2001
n.13 80.17
71.13
60.11
Ii2.I1/1
fl.1I/I
6.13
6.67
8.57
540
'28
'10
no '.BB 340
US
2111
1.00
1.00
1.00
!.III
I.
1.00
3.97
3.51
325
210
111/1
3m
19.79
19.36
lUll
16.60
a."
1'.38

...

.....
...........,:
;;;; :=

--

-<C.,
-53.0

'"

...,.

'----

25'

91.11

~VAl.UIJIIEPIJB.IIC. DJ.45
SoIn ......

ICish f\lW' pII' sh


EamkIg.,.1h A
DWd. Dld'dplflh

""
...
1410

II

Cop I Sponc1~; .... "


8.,..,'Il1o ......
c;llIIIlJIOft Shl Dvtd'1I C

...''''

...-..

31.9
11.
6.7
8."
A.;M.1''''
....
.46
R_PlERdo
.7f
.39
1.82
.JJ
3.3% 3.7%
Avg Ann', DiY'cI Y.d
3.5ll
3~'
3.'!.
6541.0 6941.0 6283D 5314.0
1111/1 -I~
7.
10.0'4 15.51 12.6%
9.4%
11..s~ Oonina .....
2910 303.0
283.0 304.0
2IIJ
3IJIJ 0_"",,:,0")
31IJ
2!iO.O 452D
315.0
63.0
US
:!IJIJ NIt 1'10111 (InI
26.'" 34.11 32.2lG 331% 31... 31... k1cont fa RdI
11."
5.0'4
1.616.5ll
23%
3.8'
13' Not I'Iott"orgiII
129D 197.0
259.0 715.0
BIll
Cop1 (\noli
BIll W_;
1:!IJIJ
1014.0
458.0 .... 0 902.0
-I$nI)
'3IJIJ Len;Tom
1566.0 1782.0 2093.0 2056.0
1111/1
Sill.
132\
11 ...
RRn on ToIII elp'
'~0'4 221'
__
'" &hr. E..ft.
6.5ll
s.n
16.0li 25.4% '5.1'
4.0'
110"
.11.911.
N",
>1% 11.1'110 22'%
12.O!t 2<1.8%
12.5%
N"'
110"
'"F
1"" RNined to C_ Eq
15% NMF
NMF
30'10
21%
117%
M
5IlI AI Dlv'dllD NIt Praf
29%
58'
93'
'2"
BUSINESS: U5XU.S. Steel Group consists of USX Capar.rtjon',
engineeling 100 consuling BVi:es. 1999 deprec:iBtbn nrle: 3.5%.
S-. and DiY8rsiI'led Busill8U8lli 18gITlenta. Smel segment iI the Has 19,266 employ8es, 55,600 sloctholclen. MIlllTII lyndl & Co.,
~
U.S. proclucer. 1999 output: 12,0 milb1 tOO!; shipments:
ITIC.lM't1S 8.-4% rJ COI'M'OfI; the PMlential lnstnnce Co. 5.9%.
10.6 mAxI DJs. Map mart8ts: SMYat eenWs, hnsportltixl.
(3JOO Praxy). ChaiImWl: USX Corp.: Thomas J.
Pretident
CDIIYIlnDI, 8IId conft'udixl. Divlnlllld Bus....
operi!lDns
Usx.-U.S. S'-l Group: Plul J. WIhHn. Inc..: ~.
Adlnss:
n::kJde: rnnni rBI01.I'C8 II'IilI\3glllT19nt, RiII.stalI devebprnant,
6OOGranl:S1J8et, P'tIsbu"gh, PA 15230. Tel: -412-433-1121.

.n

,....

,.

...."

""...

U"

""

.." " ,....

17~'

30'

Us.

These are diBicult diJ.S for industrial


giants like the USX- .5. Steel Group.
Not only is the embattled int~ated
steel
sector suffering from uncheck
imports, a
softening order book. weak pricing, and
rising raw materials prices (prlndpally
natural gas), but now the added burden of
a slowing economy has been brought to
bear. To be sure, the mill's solid financial
and stnlcturaJ underpinnings
limit the
problems somewhat and. on a comparative
basis, the Group might still acquit Itself
relatively weJl drls year. Still. barring an
~ted
turn for the better in industry
fortunes in the founh quarter, 12-month
net may [aU short of the S1.50-ashare
mark.. Although that would stiD be more
than the Grour booked in 1999, it would
be well short 0 normalized earnIngs.
Things will turn more quickly here
than for many in this sector, though.
oWing to the mlH's better facllJty and sales
mix pronle, particularly the Group's large
stake In energy-related steels. Its strong
oil country tubular presence and strength
in the ~ItaJ
goods area should shIeld it
in 200)
the consumer takes the expected
bnmt of any econom.ic weakness. As such,

1I5m'IIII. f ...
IlIIIlIriII ii ab~
tnn 5OUrte5 bItiMd 10 be I1IIiIUr .-I ii ~
ORNlY [RRQRS OR l?MlSSlOfilS H[R[IfI'. Tlmpubblionii'iftlyb
5IIIlIlz:ri... , ~,~~
&IIrDcnt 1:1" ca.lam, IMd IDr
. D
.
'"
....

DIlSI*d il

....
20
1.

..

and asswning

an accretive showing from


completed acquisition of the
steel and related assets of VSZ a.s. (a firm
based In the Slovak Republic), and the
absence of this year's blast furnace outage,
net could reach $2.00 a share next year.
The steel giant continues to be weD
situated.. Not only does its diverse sales
mix afford some cyclJca1 proteet1on and its
relatively up-to-date plant conB.~.:m
~de
cost advantages, but its
al
everage is low (by industry standards)
and its pension assets exceed its llabUtties
by several billion dollars. Thus, the Group
would seem to have the flexibiUty needed
to pursue alternate avenues of~.
Earning power is stiD const erable. as
a result. Our sense, in fact, is that the
Group has the wherewithal to net as much
as $5.00 a share annually, on average.
during an extended industry up cycle.
As such., the pessifni.sm surrounding
this good-yielding. but undme1y. issue
seems to be overdone. partlcularly on a
longer-tenn basis, when we project that
venturesome investors will be rewarded by
handsome total returns ..
HarveyS. Katz, CFA
November 3. 2000
the virtually

,1.16
:16 JIJ
.JIJ
QUARTERLY Drr'I)B(D5 PAI).
Full
IIIr.3t Jun.30 Stp.30 Dtc.3t Ya,
1991
.25
.25
.25
.25
1.00
.25
1.00
1997
.25
.25
25
.25
.25
1.00
1991
.25
.25
1./10
1999
.25
.25
.25
.25
.25
.25
.25
(AI Primooy ._91_'
'996, ,....
l 123.83...... 11l"... : '83, S1.4., '94, 43: '06, .- U". 10, Ju . '0, .....
lIaJIIi1gI th.after. Exd. speciel ch~
'91. 042,; '97, 11,; 116,21,;. Next flaming! repm1
(C) In mkm.
56.03; '92, $2.75; '93. $6.71; '95, 1l1t!;'96, 1-4j; due: 11MJan. (BJ N8xI: dividend fJIfI8ling IIbouI:
'99, 44; '00, 6: chqfI for FASB 106. '92,
Jan. 23. Goes ex aboot Nov. 13. Div'd payll'llnI:

Co.

Target Price Range


2003 200.
200.

'I'.
31'.
51'.

..

CURRENT POSrrlON

"

II

..

..

MARKET CAP $1.2 billion

.. ..

1988

1987

..

.. ..

'11111

..

..

20.4

7.1%

32."
13.5

507"7

1986

"

1989 1990 1991 1992


1993
95.33
82.80
79.80
'35.03 121.33 119.30
11.47
19.22 '62'
1.00
~81
5.46
.. 1~09 10.11 800 10.97
..
1.00
.. .78 Bl1
..
.BB
1.00
1.00
.. 7.93 7.T7 7.68 8.41 '.99 ~82
..
.. 38.50 43.19 32.61 3.n
..
'.00
..
..
..
51.
70.33
..
..
.. 371
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
.. 120
..
..
..
.. 3n 3.B' 17%
..
..
..
..
CAPITAL STRUCTURE .. of II:KVDO
6073.0 _.0
4947.0 5612.0
Total 0.111 $949.0 mi. Due In 5 Y" $400.0 mil
.14%
n .n
9."
LTDebt $919.0ml.
LTliDrnI $SO.On.-.
mo 253.0 288.0 314.0
(Total mwest COYBage: 3.01)
(3'''''CBp~ 310.0 d200.0 d117.0 91.00
P.nsIo_ Li.lblity None
.. 21.6'
29.1'
Phi Stock $345.0 mi. Pfd DIY'll $24.0 ml.
NMF NMF
5."
6,900,000 sits (S5O~, each oonv. ink! 1.064
521D
99.0
58.0 1146.0
USX-U.S. sllS. 555,000 stls. adjustable me ($50
1404.0 1848.0 2132.0 1540.0
par), ntde9mable 8t $50 .1dIa~.
2244.0 1692.0
247.0
61H)
(11%ofC8p'Q
10.-4\
NMF
NMF 1111
Ccmmon Stocl88,688,017 stls. (58% of ClIp')
13.81
u ofJutj 31, 2aOO
NMF
NMf 14.1"
1984

34.3
21.8

14.0

'11

'09

,II",1

...

,- .-.. ........h.,... .

81916

29.'

43.'

40.8
25.4

80

000
000
0 0 1
000000000
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
InstltuUonal Decluen.

I~,~

37.9
24.1

'00

DJF.AIIJJA

'01

39.0

IlMl
lID

ReIIM Pri:e

1:....~I --

..,.,

45.6
30.3

46.0
27.5

"C;,'"_~SIQl3iDrt

50 +255% 41"
PriC0
30 +115% 2a"
Insider Decision.

:".t

lIe<Ii ..

5.0 I C.!ih FtW' P m


!ie1!Jf1

. . ..

200].45 PROJECfiljjjS
Ann, TutII

....
::....

34.4
22.1

P.ERAllO 1 29
14 PiRAllO 17 5(,ru.g::HIIFU~IIElATh'E

LEGENDS

l-.l!llmll
JO (I.DO. MIrUI.)

IlETA

TllUIIESS

RECENT
P~CE

USXU.S.4 _.,STEEL
NYSEx
....

10, Doc. 10.

:10ki'l~
IW1

d
irlnlllJW.
5I!I'Ike Dr

c ..... ~ F........
SlIonglh
Stocll's nc. Stability
Prica GltlWth Pera1Dnc8
eamlngs Predlctabllty
I

I "

II:

8
60
10
20
II

ULTRA. DIAM. SHAM.


3 LIIMrd 1lll1lal
3 ""lIZ'lIl
3 l_,,,,,,,

lWI'UNESS
SAfElY
TECHNICAL

..

Pf

RAm 0 43

3(TJiiIng
11~F"TNE
Mediil1:IIIF
III

High:

law:

33.1
29.4

,,,.

... . ..
..
P.raInt

113
O.

88525

rock combined to Ionn Ultramar Diamond


ShamrockCOlp.in Decerriler011996. Each
issued and oU~nding share of Diamond
Shamrockwas convertedinto 1.02 Ultramar
shares, ,alued at $1.96 bm... , The combination created, what would be at the time
01the merger,the thiIUlargesl refining and
marketing company in Norlh America with
over 4,100 retail outiets and approximately
S10 billion in revenues.
CAPrTAL STRUCTURE u of!1JCMIO
TolaJ o.bt $1781.1 mIDIII' In S Yrs$ 450.0 nil
LT o.bt $1773.8 mil.
LTIm.~
S140.0ml.
(T otallillns1 COVfr.Ige: 6.4)()
(SI% ofca,~

Laases, UnClpltalzMlAnnual

... ,...

Common Stock 86,941,000 shs.

149"ofca,1)

CAP: S2A biDIon (Mid Cap)

CURRENT POSITION

IlIIlLl
caSh Assets
Receivables

176.1
562.1

92.8
616.5

~entory (FIFO)

635.6

556.8
130.7

131.4

eum.",_

'i!05.8

Acds Payllble
De" Duo
Other

366.0

Cunel"ll

Usb.

d_tpw"'1

Solos
"Cash Aow"

655.'
7.3
m.l

1146.1

1258.1

1439.7

'l'n.

--_.
--

..

Esf'd '97.'.

--

6.0%

8.5"
10.0"

HI

4.0"

oAl

Filii
r.,

.ndar

".r.31

.IL1n.30 Sep.:JI

'!I!7
1!1!1l1
1M
2000
2Oll1

2041
"lI'!I
2724
3639

1883
3041

2lI66

200ll

WJ7

Z141

25S6

11135

3185

3841
4511

4021

13911
1.7511
ll1JOO

tal

EARNllGS PER SHARE A


1121.31 .1<1',31 se.31 0.3'
.28
.72
.32
.61
.29
.11
.10
.18
.56
.96
.30
.80
1.45
1.41
.N
1.00
.ilI
.91
.!II

Full
r.,

QUAR1BILT Dr.IlfHOS PAIl"

Full
r..,

..

an'"
lil17

,.
1!191

.iiil

Dec.31

---4000

454

....

.... 31 Jun.lO S,p..30 Doc.31


.-.~
.275
.275
.275
.275
.275
.275
275
.275
.275
.
. ..In.
275
.275
.275
2lICNl
.275
.oOS
.275
.275
(A) ~
.-nligl
until 1996, bati: u.e-

:.ZIS

Nut e.nilgs Ieport Iirte Jan. E:G:tudes


IlOIIR!CWIV1g
1IBms.: '98, ($2..22); '00, 20:
1'0.02).
;dW.

..
80
50

- -- - --

hI,.

32

"

2'

... ..

..

..

..
..
...
..
..
-_.

..
..
..
..
..
--

..

..

..
..
..
._.

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
_.
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..
...
..
...
..
..
..
--

..
--

..
..
..

..
..

..
..

m
3~%

-.

6153
8107
5.9%
5.4%
136.3 179.9
95.0
88.0
35.'% 40.7%
1.5\
1.1\
385.7 303.1
1557J 1646.3
1328.il 1240.'
,,%
4J%
., 12%
7.1%
-.
1.6%
.. 88% 791

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

,,~

.....

"'"

BUSINESS: UIbiJrnaJ Diamond Sh-.oct


Corp. is IUdng
independent refiner and rnaReW of petroleum prtJduc:ls in CA, HM,~,
CO, and LA, and Easan canada. Acquinld 1a1ll' Petroleum. 9197.
In 1999, !lOti 0Wll' 175,000 bpd 01 refined prtJdudl. Refinl19 capacity. 701,000 bpd. Has 3,950 retaM IIb1Is i'1 lie U.S. and Canada
under ltIe BeaOJfl, DIwnond, Toll( and lIIriIIT1iIr narMS. Has ap-

Profits
are
soaring
at Ultnunar
Diamond. Indeed, share eBnlings are on
pace to more thlUl double in 2000, comwith a yeBf ago. The refining maret has tighteniK:I dTamatJca.lIy over the
year. b~g
refining margins to
evels not seen or many years. And while
certaln regions, sU<:\1 as the West Coast,
have been part.\cular]y
profitable. QRC:rat1ng inrome has increased across all ~ the
company's North American locations. thus
far In 2000. Its marketing
operattons,
whlch are largely concentrated in the
Southwest. -have not been faring as well,
sJnce COlIlplititlon is .espedally heavy in
this region. B~t ~aement
h,ps been
closing underperl"orming
stations, and rls
Ing sales at convenience: staces have been
offsetting some of the ~
~ne
margins. All In all. the outlool<. for 2.QOI Is
promising,
although
perhaps, It. ~
as
stellar as this year. Low 8asoUne tnventorles augur well for high corporate profUs, and there is little additional industry
capadty in the works .
Acquisitions
represent
a key
comstrategy.
~nent
of management's
tTamar
has grown rapidly through
a

1.93
1.54
1.00
L70
105

1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10

(8) Next diYidend ~


... Jan. Goes 8l(diYilend n:I-feb. ExpedSd dimend payrnenl:
dates aboU1MardI 11th, Jul'llil 8th, Sept..,...
eth, D8c8rTtIer 16th.

ICI"m_.

D 1995 flQlnS

iIRI

pro

161.14
'.18
2.00
1.10
2.12
1722
8.

1.7
.fit
4.7%
13971
'.911
240.8
1732
'1.7%
12%
138.7
1327.6
1493.3
8.6%
11.6%
52~

55%

19.1

27.9

83.4

f910G
7.65

10.1

3 yr.

2001
99.31 128.64
3.33
1.93
1.64
1.10
1.10
2.99
HI
19.46 15.99
.56
16.4
19.5
.95
1.01
3.5%
3.7%
11607 11135
6~%
'.1%
200.1 237.'
151.1 147.1
32.6%
'1.8%
1J%
U%
360.1 3;9.7
1866.4 1926.2
1686.6 1384.0
6.0\
6.6%
9.0% 1G.6%
3.6'111 3.5%

01

5 yr.

'I. TOT. RT1.AII11IOO


_

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 D1995 199~


..
..
..
..
83.16 10l1.S2
..
..
..
..
.. 3.07 3.53
..
..
.. ell! 1.11
..
..
..
-. 1.10 1.10
..
..
..
..
.. 6.41 422
..
..
..
.. 17.95 15.45
...
..
...
.7.."
..
..
...
.. 28.
.-

~ yr.

... ........
""'" ... -

..
_

....... eared
.
..
r:::t

..

l"r-.

Q1JARTERLTSALES ~

c.J.

1787.1

774.3

Put

DivideAds
Book Value

171.4
623.1

8-45.8
141.6

489.2
14.0
7504.9

Put

Earnings

."...

5.e

ANNUAL RATES

nmtals $64.8 mill

Uablllty None.

Pfd Stock None

IMMEl

-- -

.
'.0
3.0

:::.1
692~
Ultramar COrporation and Diamond Sham73
>238.

T~rge1"P11c. Range
2003 2004 2005

293
2M

"8

"-."

......
......

101.

108

88

3.9%

18
12

....

'enslon

'<. ,

'"" (i:"tl

I_

YLD

28.0
17.9

.. .. 1,",

............

DIV'D

80

'e'"

121<
30
+5%
6%
Insider Oecismns
JF.".JJAS
o 1 0 000 0 1 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000000000
Institutional
Decisions

-...

36.3
21.8

5.D1 Cil5h flow" P '!II


. . R~
PIn !otIlIlglI
__ ~~
reR'Gn

2003-45 PROJECl1ONS
AM' TClbI

34.8
27.6

lE.GI:NDS

(l.Dll-MartdJ

b!i

ITA

28 RAm 6

I~CEHT
PRICE

NYSEUDS

<4.8

cVALUEUHEPUB~IlC. OJ.45

16'-"0 SIllS" sh II

llV1J

L18

'.70

7.10
F1ow"
U5 Earnln85 pi!' Ih

1.10

1.10 Div'd, OKI'd pII' III

CuII

2.75

CIp"

11ll
1.10

100
&p.>dln, "" III
ZU5 Book Yllul per Ih C

..~.::.....
20.70
I.

.......

I.

;;,.

16750
Ull
:155
41.

p.n"

1_
1511

AYII Mn'l

Klio

P'!

11.

A*tivt PIERdo
AYQAnn' DiY'd Y"1IkI
Sill, {$nlID) A
0__

21Q

. Ii_

110011

35IJ Nol""'11\Sniin
".0% ""-'" Incaru Tu RIll
NoI""'tIIM.
2. "
,."
Cap'lilmll)
35IJ
165/J 1700 longTorn Oobt Ilnal
..
1100
1lhr.
1~O% 11-'" Ann on TalliC~,
SIIr. Eodtv
23.0% 17-'" R........

U"

"..,. ,..,.

w_,

RI'IatMd to COllI Eq

175

..,.,
22.'"
.75
11%
1_
5.5ll

"115

""""...

1.1%
1100

'SIlO
US

11.5ll

1.'"

211 AI OM" .. Not Prof


MS
~inalely
Z1,OOOempk>)'88!I and" 12,300 stodl:hotIlI'S. otrDlIS
and Oi9cDs own 22% of company; Capital ResearctI, 12.8%: Total FllancalTOTAL, 8.0%; Vanguan1lWndkI', 5.3'11.(3100 Pruxy).
Vi:e Chaimln & Chisi' Execuh8 0If1l:: Jean PaUl. tnc.: De&ml

WanI'. Address: 9630 Cotmad8 Blvd., San Arlblo,

1)(

1B23D. Tel.:

211J.641-68lX1.Intemet WWW.udsaxp.lXm

sbing

of mergers

latest

occurred

acquisitions. The
with the
chase of a S;m Fr.andsco fadUty
om
Tosco. 111is raised th.e debt level .a bit, but
strong cash flow shpfild allow It .to service
the borrowing:; ad~uatelY. It wo1J,l~not be
surprising to see
e CQfflpaJ1Y engpge in
addItional lransactlOJ1ll. Phljll~S lletroleum
abandoned. a pro~al
ta' com me the two
company's refinJng Pet:tv:ltles in Hi~9. but
there is a possibility that tfU.s veJ1f.uremay
be revjved. Rer.:llless.
~\J"8Tll'lJ" Is Ippking to expand
'" refln!nll pperatlor\s.' ~fI
wilt likely do SO ~Urchaslng
aXIs g
planu with the lnte
on of upgradlnjl the
flll;lJJtI.. PnQ cutting CIl6tS.
UJ~r
'Diamon"s
shares
bltve
tra,ded ho"w>ntall)'
over tlJe ~t
several y~
The lljrcUca1 nature 0 the
rennlng IndustIy
will make It difficult to
sustaiQ ~
eam.i.
levels out to
2003-Z005. S;till. the allJve-average d:Jvtdend yield may appeal lQ inoome-oriented
investors, s~
this wod suPpor:t the
share quotatl~/'.
should I'&linIng "'IIfglns
contract.
In 0*lIJ!on.
atq\llslt1on.
coull!
prove OUT proje ems conservative.
Noah Goldner
()epember i!2. 2QOO
___ "'- t:o-.,.~ .po-_ ......
"

bml.

and

in August

Slock" Price

~-.11i

",...-c.

Price Growth
Earnings Prediidabilty

c;;..

...
10

40

UNITED DOMINION NYSEUDI


High:
law:

19.8
14.3

!RECOO

2.2%

I PRICE

19.6
7.0

12.1
8.0

10.8
7.8

19.8
8.0

22.8
17.1

25.1
17A

2'~
(9.0

31.4

Z3.'

35.0
27.6
16.t - 18.6

Tarvet Price Range

24.3
15.1

2003

ZOO'" Z005

LEGENDS

100

7D.-tnlF"'psh

14or~ .
,,,.... II~I

111'1.,

.- t",

11"""IIIIIJ<t1(

I,

4CtI..
_..,.

lQZ.

19

:..s:.l 1~

17

j'

ZCl2
..
19

181~ 125~:

1984 1985 1986 1987


199.30 211.84 148.32 150.25
3.80 U8
113.13 dl2!l
d.33
d.57 116.89 d4.85
4.86

1.19
3...,
80s
3.06 3."
66.98 66.61 S4A2 26.87
.15

51.10
.69
d.24
.D<

10.56

.1

6.5"4

49.20 50.46 46.(15 47.15 50.88 51.63 45.56 41.15 3813


1.00 1.01
.48
1.35 2.OB
2.50
3.06 3.12 3.16
.38
.24
d.23
!J7
1.11
1.44
1.88
2.00
1.91
.11
.15
..20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.28
.58.95
.53
.10
.OJ
.82
12'
128
1.40
11.48 11.38 11.54 11.12 11.50 13.31 15..59 18.15 20.42
"""

3.0%

.-

TolIl DellI $816.9mil. Due k15 Yrsssn.6mt.


LT Debt $694.7 mil.
LTlntl:resI $48.6 mI.
(L T interest earned: 5.0X; II:ItaI
COYWIIge:
4.61)
(44% tiCilp')
Pension liIb1l1ty None
Leaes, UncapiUlimd Annualnllitais $14.5 ltil

mlll'8St

NorlI'

Ccmmon Stock 39,122.355 shares (56'" of Cap'!)


"ARKET CAP: m5

million ISm.1I C.pl

"."

2!l.JJ

NMt- NLlF

. NMF NMF
.
. 110 1.2'1. 2.0\

CAPrrAL STRUCTURE IS of6l3lllDO

PId Stock

II

'

InstitutioRiI Decision.

..

1431.6
4~,
21.8
26.4
18..2%
1.8\
313.4
1951
476.3
4.9%
5.5\

1350.3
3.0'
20.9
7.0
25.6%
."
236.5
115.'
393.0
2.41
1.6\

Ntt,ff

NMF

".83

16.1
.96
2.2%

".!IO
12.3
.73
1.5%

13.6
.89
1.0%

1110.7 1826.8
,,\
62'
29.6
34.9
24.04 44.7
23.6!. 27.8'
1."
1."
1192 161.1
119.2 433.1
~1
464.6
4.810 6.0%
5."
9.6\
J.D'4

39.44

2036.4
6a
45.3
58.0
.a.S%
1.8\
263~
309.8
576.0
7.9%
10.1\

7.9'110 B.7'"

ANNUAL RATES
d_fpo-",)

Sal_
''Cash Flew"
EIIIl1i1gs
Dividends
Book Val ....

...

39.1

1U
.76
.9%

43.'"

11.3
.11
.9%

13.1
.19
1.1\

1805.0 1888.8 1654.1


Ion 11.0ll 11.9\
46.9
51.9
51.8
n:J
89.1
84.9
35.8% 3U'
36.5%
4.3'
4.1\
5.'\
263.6 361.4 263A
389.3 188.6 191.5
617.9 821.3 884.0
8,9% 9.0% 8.0%
11~\ '0.8\
9.8\
10.8'

9.1"

8.2%

.t9.B6 55.02 6Z.2I


0.11
4.06
4.72
4.11
5.45
2.45
2.50
.151
2J5
.36
.36
.G
oM
1.28 '!if
lJ1J2JI
22.14 23.'54 2.....
2US
40.5>

11.0
!if

1.3%
2020.4
11.1\
64.9
99.7
18.1%
4.9'
444.6
544.8
897.3
8.2%
'1.1\
9.5%

3905

.....

"" ..

8.9 1Wd1lli'!-.51
....
_ ~
1.6\
1"-

s.IeIpwlh
ClmFlow"pl ... b
EarnlnpJ*'IIIAE
Dh'dIDKl'dperM
Cop' Spondn, P'"''
BookYllulp h

3.45
41.15

1<

"" ..

"' .... ,

AvgAnn1PIERrio"
R_
PIERdo
AVIIAnnHliY'd YWd

2148.3
Z!95
2J55 Wn(SnlI
12.61lZ'"
lU1I_M....
lU
MD
1141 DIlpl"ICiItiOll
($nil)
100..
1. 1. fHtProIt~1
29.5'4 JU% JUS IncamtluRitl
5.1\
4.2%
4.2l1 NIl""'........
3152
S<5
... W"*"', Cop' (ln1J
59'~
5IiD
5110...... T""_~I
9191
NO
1m stir.
8.5"4 I.n: lft, Rnn on Teal c.p',
11.9\ lUll
'-"' R_ .. SIr. Eq<iIy
10.4%

'.0%

.. '"

RnaiMd 10Cen Eq

'1.45
7.
lIS
.S4

12.D
JIJ
t.3
2IStI
l1.Jll
1M
,.
31.1"
'-Jl'
11.
35IJ
1405

'"'"
1m
&.!%

UNITED INDUSTRIAL
3....., .....
3 ... ,mllD

THEIlIISS

SArnv

low:

,I!I.I'"I,II,.I
.'.

AIm'I'"

~lRltllm
25%
13%

..s."""..., ,_
..., ,.,.. "'..
f_

....

..

354'

1.91
1.44
.49
1.40
8.26
'3:lIf
12.7
1.03
2.7%

'0

3490

381'

"

-'
.V",
'"

d.12

1.70

d.69

101

:h:r:;t ::: -

traded

4."

3.2%

1.99
1.29

1.89
1.11

1.04
8.01

.51
7.98

11.0

11.8

~1
4.5%

4.9%

...

of II3UlI

None

MARKETCAP: $125 million ISmail Cap)

34.4
23..
13.7

'2.2
6.3

,2.2

110.0
. 8

Other
CurrentPayable
Aba
__

9'13

De .. """
Other
Current U:ab.

28.'
40:6

(po .. ,

So...
"Cash FJo.v"

~~

Book Value

c.londu

-I.
1197
1191
1199

2001

.......
Cal-

'''''

1999
2IIlI9
2IIGl

...."'.,
,,..,

1196

1191
1999

13.1

25.8

Inventory (Avg Cst)

.....

"

"

..

.'.

"~~'

llY ....
-2.5%

-2.,,,
......
"5"
I.'"

632

28.3
139.8
11,4

.-

--

..
63.8

4-9.0

----rs:!

58.8
Pat

Est'd 1I7'GG
to ,:1-'15

"n.
-1.5"

5.tni

6.0"

1-4.0%
-2.0%

3.'"

6.5"
9.5"
3.5"

6.011

IIIWlmu.Y IAllS~1Aj
IIar.31 J".30 ~.
Dee.31
62.,
69.0
58.5
55.0
57.2
49.9
50.0
47.2
54.0
63.8
47.1
62.1
60.9
65.7
fU
49.9
51.8 IU
6U
721
EAR*tGS PER SHARE"
Mir.31 Jun.30 SepJO Dec.31
.24
.17
.'4
.'4
.Z1
.18
.18
.19
.11
18
.19
.17
.20
.31
.18
.2'
.29
.11
.22
.32
IIIWllBlLY DlvllEIIlS 1WlI"
.r.31
Jun.30 50.30 Dec.31
.05
.05
.05
.05
.07
.05
.07
.r11
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
. '0
.'0
.'0

o 2GIIl VIIiIe U1e


. iIIe. AI'
PliluSHf.R IS ~SlBlP,gRNff
be
....
1lr~1I..,

1li[

.., .......-

}lll

40

""

10
12
10

'"

...........

"

., ".

... ......
..,.
.....

..un RE1'lAI1'

.......

..
1 ".
3" .

5".

311.'

19.7

10.6
174.1

f--

83.'

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

VAl.lJElJiEP\Il ~C. U45


16.68
18.14
1920
11M
1415 :aa SIlos ....
UIII
1.55
1.21
1.48
1A7
1.75 "Cull Au." Plflll
US
HO
'.39
.7,
.22
.52
.82
.69
.J8
.15 e.MIgs IlIr Ih ...
IJI
.7'
.54
.35
10
.40
.40
AD DlY'd.c.erdplfM
19
M
.42
.40
.48
.fiT
1.f5
1.02 ~
.a Cop'-g,,1II
.'2
.7'
817
8.40
0.98
7.40
9.33
9.03
US 1.... 8000_ ....
12.15
'.93
. fDIJ
122>
,22>
12.25 12.29
1UJ -1141
g
'W
12.1' 12.11
,2.3
11.7
101
181
3a
11.0
12.0
13.7
IAvg
PIE_
15.1
'3.1
85.'
.7,
.87
.66
1.16
1.111
R_PIERdo
.69
.73
.71
1./11
;;a
3.0%
Awg Ann, Dir'd l'Wd
7~%
0.4%
3.8% 4.4% 3.'%
3.3%
2.l.
6.7'
4."
'.0%
253.8 258.0
251~
253.0 2I1J.7 227.4 220.8
2114~
217.0
2351
245
2SG SIIos~1
9.4% 9~%
71%
3.0%
7.3% 'A%
9.0% 10.7"
10.4.
8.'% '0.3% 'U%
lUll
8A
91
7.4
9.3
OJ
9.0
7.8
7.7
u
OJ
U
1G."
9.4
liS
0.4
0.4
10.3
9.4
2.7
.9
1l.J
UO NoI ""'II
IAS
35.1% 34'%
10.B% 33.'% !UI J1G1 NoI
381% 66.4% 39.J% 45.'%
IncUMTaRn
36'%
33.0.
__
-u'o
3.7% 4-'i% 2.5%
1.1\
5.1% -4.3% ~6% 4.11
2.5%
.4~
2.9%
3.6'
2B.l
21~
63.4
60.0
70. W_I
WI
c..,'I (lnlll)
110
44'
53.' 44.7 n~ 58.9 512
.. 4.'
,2.,
7.4
25.0
20.0
13.8
WI
iii
NI LaIgT .. IlIIlI( .. )
25.'
111
101.3 103n
101.0
85.4
88.4
115 Sin.
861
115
150
"ll 102.0 109.4 111.1
O~~ 10.9%
3.3%
1.8% 7.5'
81%
U%
.--"' ,.51 R....... T":'~
9.3% 111%
0.3%
1.1% 9.3%
311
0.4~ 1/1.G1
10--",
Rnmonlh.
'BlI In%
3.6"NMF
NMF 3.01NMF 4.41
-4.8"4 '.9%
-4.0% 5--"'
7.11
~";"'"" k>e- Eq
84%
68% 123%
NMF
49%
WMF
36~
42%
48~
57'1'
441
42\\
Dh'dlk>1ItI """
BUSINESS: Unitlld IndL!Hia1 Corp. designs Ilnd nIilmrt'adlJres mii(pBsIics diY.)lW7; SynilDn Sydams, 10,a). '99 depr. 1118:6.3%.
tary lraililg .00 sinulati:ln S)'!ItIllTlS, .uDnatic IBSt equip. far.1eeHas ebout 1,600 IiIfTIpIs., 2,3OO!ltlareholdlln. Ofran and dl1lQ:n
bonk: deflKlSll. sysIBms, mec:hilnicll support Iptsns, and th8
cortft)I 8.4% r:I ammon; 8In*tI Filii, 9.8%; 8i1el Partnln II,
Pionee'r tnnanned ... 1ve1liclll.(81% d "99 Dies). Maklls com- 8.5%; Dimensional Fund /.m., 7.4% (4/DD Prm:y~ PM. Illd CEO:
busIi::wr ~
fC6 i1dusRtlllJClmu~fIIll1Bts
(15"J. 6lanuflc- Ri=trard R. Ert8l1llf. Inc.: DE. Al*hts: 570 l.e:mgtDn AWl., NY,
tll8S lInd nIIgndtt: nnsl systIms f4%). SokI Neo P!oduets
N't 10Q22. Tel.: 212752-8787, lmamat: www.uaitldirldu!llrilllcam.

..

21.re
1.63

...

20liIJ
127
.52
.54
.45
919

20."
.83

,= ,=

1714
1.11
.43
11
.34
7ZI

18.M
.76
n,
16
.47
7.08

..

,...

...

""::+-lo':

An.,

~':-II)

0'

"

"""

v.,
2362
204.3
217.0
245
15il

F
v.,
.69
.82
.7'
.JD
.IS
F

V.r
.20
.29
.40
.40

'"

,.,..

.....

.,~

.,~

United

Industrial
Is poised to benefit
increased
defense spending .
After years of financial cutbacks, the mllitary appe~
to be Wldetfunded. and increased spending will likely be required to
maintain current levels. And with the new
adminlstratlon's lndlcated support. for this
agenda, the sector will likely have a favorable operating envirorunent going forward.
. as It moves toward a focus on its
core competencies.
ute recently comgleted the sale of Symtron Systems. a
usiness
that
develops
computercontrolled firefighter training systems, for
a cash price of $]5.3 million. Elsewhere. a
deal to sell Its Transportation Systems
business fell through. The WlIt has been
beset with problems since ~int-venture
~rt.ner Skoda, A.S.. ran into
andng dif
cu1ties, and It continues to be a drag on
the bottom line. DespIte the setback. it
wU1 likely be sold in the near future. In
the meantIme. efforts to Improve the busIness continue .
United. continues
to win new con
tracts in the niche defense markets it
serves . In particular,
the Unmanned
Aerial Vehicles (DAY)business continues
from

(A) Prinary MlIiIgs ~h


1996, lhen
dilulad. ExcI. disc. ops.:
, 74; nClf'l'eal'Rlg
gails (louilsJ: '89, (~: '90, 21: "91.
'93,($'10);'97,511;
,211;W,125I;Q3,
III

T~~t Pric.RoiI'nge
20 3 2004 2005

11.8

,. - -

",

;;.c,

I," ",

.'
."

, """"" ".

41.5
48.'

'190

ANNUALRATES Pat

...

uafll/WO

Recei't'Bbl8s

12.5
7..

8.1

..

Common StDct 12,413,638 slls.

C8,\,"'~

14.0

11.4
5.

..

l8nes, Uncapl;ilized Annual rentals $3.4 ml.

CURRENT POSrrlON

. 5

..,

Total Dlibl None

PltllSion Li.bIRty
PldStocIl None

7.3

3.6%

YlD

2..0

... ...

7.40
13.19
1U
.98

CAPITAL STRUCTURE.

'.0

... :..

.~

..

... ...

6.
'.1

10..

.54

..

11

.58
.70
7.00
13.33

8.6

......

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ~991


211i8 20.73
18.59
20.45
22.56 24.06
20.25
1.92
1.38
.45
1.16
0.06
1324
'0.7
1.00
3.1%

11.5

DIV'D

lledi.,;

30
25

...

:
'.

000
0 0 0 0 0 0
000
0 0 0 0 0 0
o 0 0 0 0 000 0
Institutional Decisions

I~.

11.3
7.'

JJASO

11.4
7.3

l:I2.I)\FTrIE 082
118('rOin

131 P RATK!

OC;d':m iKb~s reSSO'l

2003-45l'ROJECl1llNS
Prtet
Gain
25 (i125%
16
+45%
Insider Dtc18ioru:

15.6
10.6

Pf
RAm

LEGENDS
9.5.l;15Il
FIr:JW"P WI
, ReIHve Pn:f, Slr!llgll
10'11. Div 1181

ITA .TO (1.00. 'brkll)

:".t'

NYSEU1c

High:

3.....,,,,,..

TECHNiCAl

I~CEHT
PRICE

.....
.....

..,.-

34.

to grow. with a recent $7.5 million contract award from the Romanian gavernment for a Shadow 600 UAY system. ThIs
followed close on the heels of a $ZZ mlllion
contract rrom another international customer. Meanwhile. the company is moving
ahead on a $56 million Tactical UAY program lOr the U.S. government. AddItionalIy. ESI, Its engineering and maintenance
services business, continues to expand Its
C-l7 alrcraft maintenance training servlees with a new $4 mUllon
a8~am
for the
U.K. Royal Alrforce. Over I,
Cs consolldated sales backlog was up 4096, to $388
mUlion at
the
end of September,
representi.ng over a years revenue at the
current nm rate. We are leaving our 200]
estimate unchanged at $0.95 a share. with
an upward revision likely in the event of a
sale of the Transportadon segment.
The shares have moved up over 30%
from their lows earlJer In the year. While
this has cut into our projected appred.ation
out to ZOO3-2005, accelerated defense
spen~
and Improvement or ellmlnation
or the
I"8J1Sportation losses would rnu,ly
lead to upside adjustments.
Mario Ferro
December29. 2fXJO

'00, ~I. Nell 8gs. report dUltIl5ly February. (C) In milixls, Mljustad b nx:t dividend.
Compan/r: Fiwlcialatr.gItI
(8) NexI: diw.rnlg . .ound Jlnllll'Y 15. N8IdIDl
S1Dck's rice Stabllty
date about Fe~
ON. pa)'mlll'll.~: on
pnc. GI'DMh hl'llllnc:e
...........
,,,
.,Mav,Au!l .. "'.
~
rtsemIl. F.m.I rrIIIIiriIII s abIlftd rn. _
~"be
,...., ... is pI1lIideIIlfIt1IIlI: ~
II.
UId.
(RRORS OR OMISSIONSH[R[N. This pdcIlbI is 5HIJ b ~
-.
I'll' Wi''''''''
__
tl5e. ~ pIl1

I
I .,
....
~0"
..
bm..1l5elI1ar
II"~
crllllDnrit
. ,Stnite.fII*d.

\'7t!):

''''''

B
70
30
:

II:

II ,

WALTER INOS.INC.
TIlEUNESS
SArID
BETA

LEGENDS
5.DI-c.lhr
~:~

Low:

10.3

II

'1.8

....
....

,I'

11111111,11,

(j~5~t 36"
18"

""0'25

10'.
2.

......

Pare.nt

'.0

""

CAPITAL STRUCTURE u at lII31JDO


Total DlbI $2296.0 mil. Due In 5 YIS $870.0 mi.
lTlnternt
$185.0 mill.
LTDebt $2128.6mil.
Ind. $17982m-.
asselInatgage blck8d noIes.
(Total mnst COY8fiIIge:1.2x)
(90% rA c.p'l)
Lea., UncapitaliDdAnnuall9nlil1s
$15.9lTil
PellSkm liability None
PM Stock None
(10%ol'Cap1)
CCIIlImon Stock 4&,258,892 shs.

u
"'''''''''
MARKET
CAP: S3SO million ISmail

,.DO

BiJ1/ot

45.6

ZO.6

514.1
3182
150.5

14.9
521.4
271.8
155.0

'i'Oi'f.6

963.'

150.7
1&4.8
184.7
500.0

206.7

'482

Other

1912

.852

Curntnlliab.

ANNUAl RATES

Put

Pm

~~~3s

--

QUAIlTBILT SA1fS 11...


Y- Aug.31
Nov.30 Feb.21
1997 369.7 397.9 340.5
1!9l1 399.3 448.1 '53.8
1199 406.6 '26.3 352.6
2000 459.8 437.3 452.7
2.OCI1 513.6 51
485

2000

2.OCII

...

NAIF

1.:;

31

5.0.

FIICaI

Y.,
399.0 1507.1
536.0 1837.2
430.' 1817.8
509.7 1909.5

.,12

EARhlrlGS PER SHARE A H


Aug.31 NodI Feb.21 May 31

1997
1998
1919

ea.

10.0"

-3.5%

E_

Y-

8.0"
8.0"

.-

FIICaI

E_

-499.8

15.5%

..
..
-.

800kValue

125.7
187.4

Est'd '98-'00
ID 1:1-'15

1.'11-- "n.
_. 4.5"

""",,,,(PO",)
Sales
''Cash Flow"

FI.c:a1

Cap)

1_
474.7
245.0
154.9
920.2
125.8

Curntnl Asset!I
Acds Payable
DebtOUe

1995

Fi"",

Y.,

.39
.45

.67
1.08

.35
.25
.19
.21
.17
.06
.16
.D
.11
.IIS
Q1JARTmTDI'/I)EJjDSPAID.

.94

.19

.13

d.D4

.26
.20

.23

.14
.14

endar

IIlr.31

1996
1997

..
..

'998
1919

--

..
..

..
..

2000

.03

.03

.03

..

Jun.3D
..

.-

24

20
16

- -- - --

SeD.3D
.-

.-

DK.31
..

..
..

.03

1"1
F~',",""
B D
Bammgs.

.63
.15
Full

Yu,

..
..
..
.03

..
..

..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

..

..
..

..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..
..
..
..

..
..
..

..

..

..
..
..
..
..
..

22."

12
10

,
,

I.

......
...
...
,~.""'"
-

....

'" lOT. REllAIII

.T. ....

1~99
Z727
2.61

.67

..

1.79

5.60

55.'"

34.119

311
1.08

..

1.95

6.66

20.'

53.89
11.8

1.18

.93

..

1507.1
22." 23.6%

..

22.,.

18312

.~.

,~..,,'

2000 2001
<0.39 "-35
VI
3.05 ,.2/1
.94
.63
.65
..
.119
.'2
1.03
1.60 210
6.82 '.16
47.
41.1II
40.'"
1>3
11.2
.87 1.16
..
.%
1611.8 19095
32.17

"'."

-35.9

15.4

-30.1

252
91.11

11.8%
113.3

Bcd. Vlh .....

..

NMF

..

7.9'"

..

11.6%

..

16.4'"

..

14.2'"

..

12.8'"

'8%

1"

4>.'"

1'-'
.65

Avg Ann'l Pit Rlio

R_PUdo
Avg Ann'llliY'd Yilld

1.1

2,..,

11.511 Oaon1i"M_
D__
IImM)
f15

11....

1."

(;cnmllll ::ihllAltslll

.'"

..

eYALUEUNEPUB lie. 03-45


SlInperlhA
S2.2/I
C.1h Flow" pII' Ilk
5
Em*III,.-1h
1.4
DiY'dl Dld'd.-1I1
c
.2/1
Cap'1 Spending 11"'"
'./1/1

.m Salu(W)

22.6%
81.1

MID

Rmined to COllI Eq
All [)jv'ds kl Nil Praf

f'.~

.......
'35

2.'"
610
22/1/1
UIl

.'"

1U"
".511
.ft

BUSINESS: Wall8r Indunies, Inc. lias lxJr pr'mary business EgmenIs. Homebuikling and FiIancilg (25% ol' '00 sales) constructs
houses .nd pmvi:les lTD1gage and "stnncll 1eI'Vic:es. Indvsnal
Products (44%) maklls ductiB Rn ~, .uninurn foI .00 meet,
and peIroIeum coke. Enl!ll'9Y 5erv~ (18"') proviles outsowciJg
savic:8s to the P'*okHm, sI8eI, foulDy, and .uninurn indusD!s.

Natlllal Resources (12%) produces mal and methalMl gas. Bought


AIMCOR, 1Q{97. Has 7,261 lRpIs. OftsJdn. lMT1 312% of s10ck
KKR Investors, 30.1%); AsbestJs SellIlment Tnrst, 11.8%; 3
i1l1iuti:lns (in kJlI9, 24.0% (9,m proxy). Interin Chnnn., Pres. &
CEO: Donald Boyce. Inc.: DE. Address: 1500 N. Dale Mabry HIiry.,
Tampa, FL 33607. TIL: 813-871-4811. Web: www.walBmd.mm.

Walter ~dustries
continues to struggle to reverse unfavorable trends. Net
losses are mounting at the coal subsidiary.
as depressed condiUons in the commodJty
markets nullify the benefits of enhanced
productlon emdency. Concurrently, a
slowdown in mortgage prepayment actlvity, the result of higher market lending
rates, is tempering horne building and flnandng profits_ These adverse factors are
more than offsetting respectable perfonnances from the petroleum ooke and water
transmission businesses. Management has
implemented a series of initiatives that
are designed to whittle annual costs by approximately $25 mUllon, roughll $]0 mtlUon of which will come from
ead-count
reductions already completed.
Major changes are in store for Walter .
At the annual meeting earUer this month,
stockholders rejected a proposal submitted
by one of their awn to immediately Uquidate the company. Instead, they opted. to
support. management's strategies. IncludIng the disposal of one or JJlOTe noncore
divisions. with much of the proceeds earmarked for debt repayment. Walter Industries comprises disparate businesses with

little commonaUty. and a streamlining of


lhe corporate structw-e would enable each
division to focus on its distinct ftnandal
and operational needs. Moreover. separation would provide transparency, allowing
Wall Street to better assess the various
components. At thJs jW1Cture, JW Aluminurn and the coal and methane gas subsidiary are both up for sale. but additional
divestitures will likely be forthcoming.
Most investors
should probably
TeJDain on the sidelines for now. By our
calculations, Walter's diverse opemtlng
segments are worth significantly more
than the current stock price impUes, and
the planned restructuring should help to
unlock. some of that value. Given the challenges in several markets and the prevailing economic uncertainty, however, it may
be difficult to attract bids that fully value
the businesses. The stock is untimely for
relative year-ahead price performance.
Lars L. Bainbridge
November 3. 2000
1/3, ...
CASH POSITION
S-y.... A'1I
CIlT'NRt ......
1D C~
1.JI.b1n8s:
193"

J,....,

ill.,

I, "

.. 112.1 113.4 106.1 114.0


.. d36.3 21.8
31.1
43.6 30.8
.~ Pn>111s..m
58.'
..
.. .. 47.0' 39.1' 431% 23.8" "0''U Inggml Tu RaIl
.. F 1.5" 2.5'
31% 3.0.
1.6% '.511 Nil PnlM .....
.. 616.4 6m 6431 106.4 455.0 511.5
55D W""'I ~, (lnlll
.. 2133.' 2196.3 20m 2386.0 2196.6 2139.5 2.65 lang11m1 DIbt {$nIlII)
.. 360.8 276.1 319.4 359.1 342g 200J
210 Silr.
.. 2...
5.5%
5.1%
5.1%
5.3%
Rlium OIl TCIbIIClip'
3.8'
.. NUF 7.9% 11.6% 16.4% 14.2. 14.9% 10 .. RIllJrn llIl SI'tr. Eallfty

!r,a,..,;

".""
",.".
lel_
.......... -...
.bo~
51h
ExcUdes nst nOl1flKD- GoeIlD. 8bou1 January 511. Apprm.imdB pay'95, $6.35; '98, $2.09; 98, 5;;"99, menI dales: Feb. 15, May 15, Aug. 15, Bnd j
. Next eanW1gs repcr1. duB late Dec8mber.
Nev. 30. CD) lndudes intangibles. At 5131199:
III 2l1Jll. YaIt l.iIe ~
lilt. AI ~
resen'Ild. Flc1uIllI'I*riiII
i5 ....
rra. !ICIUIa5 ~
tv lie
IHf PUBUSl-E1l1SNOTRE
XSIlLE ORAllY ERRORS OR OMISSIONSHEREIII.'J1IiI,~il.Sh:BJ_
II.IIIIJ. nptJIUri .... CI" ~
pMd.1IecIIIn; CI" tftf fDIIll, CI" II5fIlI II. ~
a ~.".

~ awns:

..

"'."

Ca~~
Remivables
~rrtory (FIFO)

".

22
30661

I'

..

102
0 0 0
0 0 1

IQI

CURRENT POSITION

7.3

.,
J

22
h.....
29
28
2.'
23881 28859
WaNer Industries was organized in 1987 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 G1995 1996
.. .. .. .. .. 2Ml 27.06
10 acquire Jim Walter CoIporalion (founded
..
..
..
..
.. U6
in '946) in a leveraged buyout. In '989,
W
.. .. .. .. .. d.75 .43
asbestos-related lawsuits against the com..
..
..
..
..
..
..
pany. arrong other facDlS, forced it and 31
..
..
..
..
.. 1.52
cI i1s subsidiaries IDfile for pmlection under
1.34
..
..
..
..
.. 1.1-4 5.04
Chapter 11 cI the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.
..
..
..
..
..
On 3115195,Waller Industries emerged from
.w
..
..
..
..
..
.. 31.1
bankruptcy pursuant to a oonsensual plan of
..
..
..
..
..
..
reorgan~tion. In the transaction, approx;.
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
mately 50.5 million comrron shares and
$490 miYion in Senior Nates were issued to
..
..
..
..
.. 1434.1 1'85.6
former c:editors and stockholders.
..
..
..
..
..
:~
H

Target Pric. RanV2003 2000 200S

12.5

50
.0
32

Prico

2.

7.

1.6%

YlD

.. psll

Ann1TotaI

r:t

DIV'D

16.4

10.8

2003-05 PROJECTMlNS
Goln
__
14
+lI5%
Insider Decisions
DJF.".
o 1 001 1
000
0 0 0
.lln 000
0 0 0
IrwtitutiOMI Decillions

13.0

090

Price SlSlgll
i'l6a.-s I!'C'eSMlfl

ev _.

.9~ (1.110. MIIUI)

High:

3(TniI'i;I~~~ElA1lIt
Medi~:NMF Pi RAm
22.0 22.6
16.8
14.5

PRICE

4 '-" ""'"
4 L_1111/99
3 .........

TECHNICAL

IFCEHT 7.5 PERAm 12

NYSE.WlT

110.311_1El'

r.,cL

"'"
,."
,...

ea_

Cash & EquIv1I1D CIntln1I..1ebihil111i:


tD 5.1 .. :

wan.1ng

...... 17,

V;~

Line c .. ssik:al:ion. (G) PIo 0fTT1I data. HI Frsc:aI 1999 data udude5 SW ResoLn:es (sales,
$296.3 rriI.; net loss Irtlm operatiJns, $D.02).
I8iIIIIe lilt i5 prurIIiIIIlI wtiloIll ~
d
U1d.
.....
~lMLncn wiactill,
iIhmIluse.
PI't
fIi*d eIIacIlit!Jlll**ll, ~
CI" P'Olb1

~L

Sklck'lI
rice Stabilty
PI1ta Growth hr-"nce
E.aminp Prmict:lbillly
I

"

'"

2'"

60
15
55
: II:

III

WENDY'2....,,_
S INT'L NYSEWEN
I
Highi

TIIEUNESS

Low:

TECHNICAL

7.5

11.0

5.

3.9

14.1
. 6

PriCI

60
45

GaIn

22.6
14.4

23.0
16.8

1111

10'"
11.

lit

II

II

"...

I., liP:"" .

"lot

Perc.nt 15.0
61 shara. to.O
'23 tnId1td
&.0
63883

:::'1 ~~~ "


63332

:,'

".

91.63

95.30

1194
Ula
.49
21
1.23

"

.. .......

11.1)4

11.02
.80
.04
2.
.60
.29

11.09
.83
.25
2.

lf1

.30
2.

128
1.4%

.40

"M'
"MF

1.89
%

1.12
3.6%

1.75

~6%
1.51
'2%
CAPrrAl STRUCTURE _ of TtzM
Total Debt $252.7 mil. DR in 5 lIS $12.0mll.
LTlntIt,.. l1S.0ml.
LT Debt $248.8 mi.
(lncIudes $43.5 mil capilaflzed leases.)
(24% of C8p'O
L.-asn, UncapttaliDd Annual rentals 556.0 mil
Pension L1ablltty None
Pfd Stock None for W.ndy.lmemationa~ Inc.
(ExcL S200 mIL 5% ptd. sm. issued by Wendy"s
Financing I,. trust th3I: is a whoUy-ownlKlmnsoL
subsi:liary ofWendy"s. Elldl trust pnlfll!lmKl shn)
is cony. 10 1.8932 a:mnon ShareS.)
Common Sid 113,-401,000shs. (76'- of c.p'ij

...

MARKETCAP: $23 billion (Mid ClIp)


CURRENT POSrTlON 1908

712160

ca~~

210.8
71.8
40.3
26.9

135.9

34 .8

277.5

126.5
101.1
5.'
153.3
142.9
249.04- 2&4.2

3 .
153.7

160.7
74.7
35.1
43.2

ReC8lVilbles
(FIFO)

~n!DrI

31TI

Cumml Ass8t5
AcdJ Payablli

ANNUAL RATES

"""U-")

.....
Co!-

1197
1691
1699

2000
2091

ea.
.....
1997
1691
1999

2000
2lIII1

.....
Co!-

1996
1997
1691
1699

2000

32.'
35 .

79.'

.....

De" Due

Oth ..
CulT8nt lJab.

Revenll8!lli
''Cash Flow"
Eami"lgs
DiYi:fends
Bom. Value

73.2

.ut
20.5%

1.0%
10.5%
10.5%

. 0%

11.0%

5.5"
12.0%

.-

.......

Esrd '97'.

Put
IYIL

11Y ...

236.7

12.0"
14.5"

'''.5''
9.""

--

13.5"

llUARTERLT
REI'EHl!S(I~'
Full
Jun.PlJr S.p.hr DBc.P. Yo
540.2 525.5 51L7 2037.3

IIIlr.P.r
458 .
455.6
'76.5
51. 8

530.0
528.5

569.9
"S

477.4

633.'

633.8 2On2
S71.7 224/1
flS

577.6
f4/J
EARNIIiIGS PER SHARE A
r.P,r Jun,Ptr StD.PlJr o.c.P
.33
.16
. 2
.39
.29
.18
.33
.33
.33
.25
.39
.35
..l9
.30
.43
.41
".
.J4
.41
M
QUARTERLY DNlIENDS PAl) C
lIar.31 Jlln.30 SMl.3D DIe.31
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06

\A) F""",...

5111

....

485.2

SU:":l.,,"""""

1948.2

000

1. (8) 8asIld on diI. us.


1lgS. ~. dll8
.-ly F.b.; ExcI. nonnlCUr gains/Dues: '88,
(54f); 117, 1; '89, 7;; "90, 1;; '95, (241;"97,
ZCDQ,VIlle Iile ~

InL AI ~

115lI'nIl.

Full
Yo.
1.33
1.13
1.32

1.53
1.72
Full

V..,
.24
.24
.2'

.24

,,,,,

.'

31.7
19.7

27.1
14.0

t.03
. 3%

200. 2005

'

.. ..

1993 199.1995' 1996 ,.1998


13.1G
1.~
.76
2.

. 91

1.11

V%

1.16

~3.74
1.62
.91

2.
1.39
6.70
1Ul."

17.8
1.18
1.13
1.17
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1238.5 1320.1 13979
1. 1% 1. 6% 16.3%
61.7
66.7
66.1
64.7
79.3
672
36.0% 31.-41 35.01
62%
6.llll
7.llll
35.
114.0
33.'
233.7 200.6 144.9
528.7
600.8 66
'.6% 11.11. 12.04%
, .3lI
lU% 1321
1.8'1
"I 10.7"
36%
30'10
25lI

16.81
~07
1.12
2.
~09
7.86

17.95
US

1.19
2

1.33

1.13

.2.

2.64

2.
~22

'.35

1OJ.,.

11J.D2

16.3
1.09
1.3'
1746.3
17>%
60.6
134.6
37.'"
7.7\
25.
3372
818.8
12.3%
16.4%
13.4'1
16%

16>
1.03
12%
1897.1
lM%
89.0
'56]
38.8%
62%
1292
241.B
1056.8
12.6%

'.6%
11M

20%

10.23

..

m."

11.1
1.1%

2037.3
".6%
".6
1BO.5
382%
6'%
189
2049.8
11842
131%
151%
12.6'1
16%

BUSINESS: We/KIts lmarmrlml,


Inc. licenses & operAls the /101.
li:JrfslWd-ltrges1 chain or qud-Mlviat hnbtJ'ger resralr.lnts. AI.
121311"39,had 5,527 S)'SIIIIrI1WW Wendy"1 units (4,0415fn.nch.l,
incL 659 i'rt8mlltDn.lsial;
.l!Jo 1,817 TI'Il Hortons unils, whi:h
S8IWI alftIe, donuts, MgMJ & sandwdles. Dullllls SIlMt pntPlAdto-adIIIr ~
chict:en sandwiches, saBis, & liiIl dishes. Sold

Wendy's is shutting the doors of 18 of


its underperforming
restaurants
In
Buenos Aires. Argentina. effective im.mediately, The restaurants, which have
been unable to thrive in Argentina's rocky
poUtlcal
and
economic
environment,
shaved $3.2 million. or roughly $0.02 a
share. off pre-tax operating profits through
the first nine months of the year. Werx:ly's
win be jncurr1n~ a non-recurring charge In
the range of $] million to $22 million in
the fourth quarter as a result of the elasings. We believe the move should be accrettve to 2001's earnings, probably in the
neighborhood of $0.01-$0.02 a share.
bringing our full-year estimate to SI.72.
Meanwhile,
We have lifted our bottom-line
estimate for this year by $0.03. to $1.53.
representing better-than-antidpated
sales
trends at the company's core Wendy's
North America and Tim Horton's operatlons. At Wendy's, both
the
Bacon
Mushroom Melt and the Spicy Chicken
sandwich have been well received by customers. Moreover, the company's KJd's
Meal movie tie1n with Jim Cari-ey's new
film, The Grinch, ought to help boost

'N'''''' --

2.41

10.37
'ULIO
19.6
".7
1.13
1.02
1.1\
.6%

'M

lUll."

19o182
17.51

....

148.4
38.6%
7.6'
64.3
2-46.0
1068.1
11.8%
13.9'
11.0'1
21%
Sinn

'~

2072.2
18.5%

4.8

32..7

197

38..1

834

2<111
11ll
1.53

17.1a R.........
:J.SJ "Call_

IhA
III

........
pol'

1.72
.2.
.2 Div'dl DKI'd I*IfI c.,
1.JO
CIp I SporKIin6 pol' III
1:I.JIl Boat YIIut pi!' Ih 0
OIIIIon :;nl W1SI'II 0:::
,,""- AYII Aftn'! Pit. NMID

,... =

.... ..
......
::~
""

'OIl
lUll

I..

"S

lUll

97.'

11$
166.6
:1117
37....
38.0%
....
8.01
Ull
Ull
ISO
66.6
'40
2049.0 a
2511
1lE5.o4 "11 IllS
1~%
I.....
16.8% lUll
'Ull
12.9'1 I.....
16%
13ll
Ull

"

3UII

s.
11$

....

3.
21DIl

D."

__ .. (""-, -

_PIERd8
A"II Ann' [h'd YIMd

....

(~.

,1.8
120

-'"

Zf.IIll

'"

Nil ProIiI (hlil


Income Ta bII
NIIPro1t ......
-6C1p'(ln1ll

I.<l8gT... _I~)

"S

:J4I

"....

lUll
2511
141
1_

,..... Shr.-_11nIQ '1""


R_ '" eo..E""" ",.........
'1'"
Rn.n on Tabil Clip'
!hr.

RNinIcI to
Eq
AI Dtr'dl tD NBt Prof

""

Chi:Uns & Biscuits 3IB7. 1999 depnIC. ~Il: 5.1%. Has

.bout 40,000 empa.; 87,000 IIwtltlrs. Rondt V. Joyce CM1lI13.6'1.


cI anrron; R Cavil ThcIra, 4.8%, 0tI'. nd di"., 19.8% ('3100
pn;u:y). Ctwmn. & Founder: R OM:! 'Thcwna. Pres.. & CEO: Jolln T.
Sdluesslllr. lne.: OH Add.: 4288 W. Oubin-GmTvillll R*, Dublin,
Ohio 43017. Tel. 614-164-3100.1..-net: www.wendys.am

restaurant traffic through the remainder


of the ~.
Tun Horton's oontinues to
benefit
am the strength of its core coffee
products.
MaintaJnJng a higher standard contino
ues to be at the heart of Wendy's ]0118term game plan. Rather than r~
to deep-dlscountlng methods like many 0
its competitors, the company has looked to
higher qualJty
to set Itself apart from
other chalns. whlle building a loyal customer base. Its "Service Excellence" program has ytelded strong results. including
improved pick-up window service, speecUer
transaction times, and a friendlier store
atmos~here .
The
vestment
community has embraced. the company's
recent
'IDOVes
wlth open arms. Indeed, these shares
have appredated by 2596 since our prevlous report. in September. Stlll, despite
the recent price strength, Wendy's stock
offe~ long-lenn prlce-appredation
paten
tlal well above that of the Wllue Une
median. What's more. these shares are
ranked to oulperform the overall market
averages over the comJng six to ]2 months .
Carrle Galeotafiore
December J 5. 2000

"'_.','99: ' ....

\361): '98 (20;) (C) Ned


J8'.
3m." "71b'
81h.;GOISex Ilbou1Feb. 5th. Apprm. diY'd
lion.. (F) '95 IWS. I9Iitated to IlIf'Ied
pyni. dales: MIlCh 15, May 25, ~.
28, Nov. Harbls.
25th. Qiv'd rMrvest. plan IIYiIl (0 Ind. nr.... 1TIoIIeriII r. IIbIined fnm _1IlIlieIIld tII tr ~
.. is p-orilled 'IIIiIIlU WImIIlie5

elIdIIric"""', ~

lttEPUBUSIf'RESlllRE PONSlII1[ ORANV[RRORSOROMISSlO.SHERElI.TJi5plb1ie1tianil.~b~~IIOii-C(J"I.""irlfmlluse.


d l ~ be rq:qdIad. -.ed II" ~
ill.". p-... tIecITIic cr dhs -. II" 1IloIII ........
II" ~..,.
P'*d (J

20.16
<57
'.32
2.

237

2001 I g VALlEIJIIE PIll lie. D345

1999.

17.59
~38

16.76

... ........
""'" ... -

.. Tot. RT1.AI nlDD


1,...

1253
118
.63
2.
121
6.35

40

'2
10
8

....

10.89
1.11
.52
2.
.71

50

2'
20
16

:r.

1060.4
1~7% 13.B%
56.1
56.1
38.6
51.7
36.5% 34.llll
3.8% .]%
d10.9
432
1661 239.6
4-C6.B 471]
1.04' 6.7%
6.61 10.6%
3.4'1 5.9'1
.. %
601

1010.9

Price Range

2003

32

3 Jl'

10.44
]7
.40
2.
.43
.4.61

Tars-t

- -- - --

---

l!l!!J. -

I'

I'

,,'

"

." H'
.... .... , .,.,.
. 36
6.66
::'~ ,5.4"
.,.... ,.." "'" ..... ,"'.(,
,3]
1U
19.1
LU.7
23.1
17.3
15.8
2TA

13>
1.26

.,

."

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989~992


11.81
129
.82
.16

19.tI

11'' 1

10.31
1.1-4
.7'
.16
1.67
3.66

2 .2
18.1

27.9

60

(i1'~12~

...,
..., .......

1 07 DIV'D
TlD
1.0%
80

RetJm

+80%
1
Insider Decisions
JfMAIIJJAI
010 1 0 a 0 a 1 0
II"
021010010
001
0 , 0 0 2 0 '.
"
Institutional Decision.

18.4
13.4

209345 PROJEl:TlONS
Ann'lToIaI
"'"
Uiir

17.4
12.'

4(T"'617~~~Ei.ATr.t
led;,,: IIJ Pf RAllO.

~.1U~~~

.85 (1.00 MaIt.eC)

I[JA

7.~

2 ,...,,,,,,. L~CENDS
10.0I CI~ flooorp sII
3,..." .... - -".- :':sliwe Price s.1I'l~

SAFI1Y

25 PfRAllO 15

weEN!
PRICE

Wm
d:1o

I'~

alli.
p;rl
a paILI:l.

rtc. SbibllIty
Prtca GI'DWthPII~
E11l1l1lnpPrMllc:tl.bilty

75
50
85

Mod."

",

:11:

II',

WHITMAN CORP. NYSEWH


3 flNnnlml
3 New5l'1~
3 ... .,\IIl

TWEUIESS
SAfETY
rrCHNICAl

.ao

ITA

HIgh'
Low:

l'%'

...,

10.0 I "CIS!
'I'lln 01/511
Re8We Prke

Ann'ITCIIII
RIbn

-...- ..... ..

1~3

17.0
12.8

18.0
14.8

23A
15.6

25 .

21.8

28.'

21.e

122

1111'

SIImgll
~niln

.:,..

,....

..,

B2

70

.. . .

.. .20

...

P_re.nt
.h.r

9.0
lii.O~

3.0

1\"."

'018
"'.8

OIho'
CUTftlnl Assets
Aa:Is Payable

Dobt"""
0Ih0<

429.1

.38.3

--

114..5
265.1
112.1
'8.3

'112.2

373.3
173.6
739.1

103.7

3082

127.3

35.8
5'f5"jj
201.1
432A
167.1
IlOO

1993
1992
199'
22.lO
23.62 2531
1.73
1.69
209
.86
1.15
.99
.33
26
29
.7.
121
.83
5.26
W
'.83
M.m
'.'.1
16.D
14.0
"J
.91
.81
~
1.9%
20'\
2"
2388D 2529.1 2658J
15.4\ 15.81 16..01
98.0
935
95S
92.1 106.4
121.9
".2lI 42.11 .. n
4.6%
3~'
1863
l1B.5 22-4.6
191.8 704'9.3 7Z3J)
<76S
517.0 5526

1996
1995
19~
28.01
30.33 15AS
2.30
2.6
1.36
126
1.31
.<6
.
37
'.69
I." .83
6.26
3.05
5.61

., ...

"" ., 1\""",
153
1.02

,u<"
18.1
1.13
1.7%

1., ..,

:;

1.8'
3111.3 1551S
15.~ 17.3"
115.8
695
139.4
4H
Q.SI ....9lI
41.41
4.5%
3.0'
329.0
234.6
2535
60<.7
828.2 837'
627J
6<22 306.'
10.9\
10.91
11.91
7.6\
11.21 11.5%
21.7'
15.5%
20.6% 22."
213'
'9.21
.6,
13.5% 14.6% 15.8'
15.1% 15.0%
19'1
31%
961
19'1
30'
BUSIIESS: Whbnan Cap. diP'tltaes
Pop~
tt.ough Pepsi-Cola General BoIIlIrs, tile2nd illrgesI: independent
Pepsi diDiMJtcr in lie wortI, 1ICtXlUnti'1g fer" about 17% ci al PepsiQHI products sold Iil fhe U.S. SIlIY8S 10 Midwesl mtes .. welas
IerriorilIs i1 PoIancI, I'tIng.-y, the CZech RBpublic and the Republic
of Slovakia. Aliso di5Itlua mn-Pepsi br.incII (Dr. Pepper; ?UP,

"'~

None.,

<1,

1.9"

29465
15.3'
'0<3
133.5

.."

29'

""""'"

WhItman
Corporadoo
expects
to
m~
with PepsiAJnericas
in late NoANNUAL RATES Put
Put &I'd '17-"10 vem
r. On August t 7th. WH announced
10'13-05
11Yra.
!Tn.
d ...... (por"'1
plans to purchase the third largest inde~Ol
Rewnu ..
-8.0"
".51
pendent PepSi bottler (annual revenues of
''CIIlh FJow"
-7.0%
-8.0%
o.s"
Eamtlgl
11.0%
-11..5"
11.5"
$575
mtIllon) In the U.S. for some $660
-12.5,,"
DWidefJd!
-17."~
Book
-6.0%
- - 15.5" mf.1Iion,includJng the asswnptlon of $330
million In debt. Under terms of the deal.
QUARTERLY
REVENIES(11IIllA
FilII
e.l
PepsiAmericas' (NYSE: PAS) shareholders
Y.,
.nd_r a&ar.Per.Jun.Per. SeDPer. DeePe
are likely to receive $3.60 a share In cash
'997 333.5 392.5 052.9 378.6 1557.5 and stotk, 20% lower than the price of
.998 352.0 <08.9 476.0 399.1 1635.0 PAS stock price just prior to the announce1999 370.3 605.: 660.5 582.2 2138.2
And though the de facto take-under
:zooo 546.9 6826 655.2 461.l 23SO ment.
has raised. the ire of some PAS shareholdZlI01 >IS
SIl
7DIJ
<IS
ers, it appears to be a done deal. as both
WNlJjG5 PERlIIARE A
c.J.
regulators and PepSiCo. which is a major
end_r IlIIr.Ptr.Jun.Per.5eg.Per, Dee,Per. Y..,.
owner of both rompanies. have signed off.
.11
.<6 The deal not only expands WH's intema.06
.118
'997
.2'
.51
.16
.11
.08
.26
tional and domestic franchises but solves
.19
.10
.58
.10
.19
'999
the issue of who'll succeed retlrtng CEO
.22
.12
.12
:zooo
.07
21
Chelberg
(pAS' CEO
Robert
.70 Bruce
ZOO1
B
B
.11
.II!
Pohland: PAS 0r:rates
In nine states.
QUARTERLY
OWEND5 pAJDO
c.J.
'~I Puerto Rico and amaJ.ca). And due to the
Ilar.31 JudO Sep.30 Dc.J1
Y....
fact that both companies have a strong af.00 fiUat10n with PepsiCo. duplicate rests
.095
.1115 .1115
lI95
'1911
.11
.115
.115
.11
'997
.20 should be qulckly eUmlnated. All told. we
1998
.05
.115
.06
.05
.01
.01
.01
.08 expect SOme $ t 5 million In near-term cost
.05
'999
_.
savings.
(Our
financial
presentation
:zooo
.00
-CulT8nt Uab.

2332

-3.5"

v_

,oJ,

'991

ft[.. " ..... ,,, Sot.

...

Ii '-''''

-rlr~

5".

352

16.19
139
.6'
.20
1.58
313
,.1.00

15.31
1.42
.58
.08
1.19
811

."

13.0%

5.4%

32'
12'
HawMn Pan:h

". -

~VAlUE 1JIPU8.IlC. 03-45


RIMIIUft pi!' Ih
lUG
CulI Flow"' pi!' III
2.441
Ean*lg " A
Div'dsDld'd per III
Clip' SpondIng po' III
US
,UG
Book YIIuI 1*111 c
omlllal 5111[MSf1l ..
AYIIAnn'l PIt KIlO
RIIDin M: Ado
US
;;;
AYg Ann'l DiY'd YIeld
AI
(W)
DSIl
:UIl R.........
3SG
17.Sll
17.s'Jl
1UI
1115 Dtpod_ (lnl)
18/1
,3$
fS..
Ii. ... _, ...1"
47.s'Jl
InCDIH Tu RIll
".K
3.Sll
4.s'Jl
~'I
<1115
61. W_e Cap' ($mill
SlJ
O1G 1.ong7... DobI (InI)
lID
1ZS8
150S
9h''-_llnli
S.s'Jl
lOll RftIm on To1II Cap'!
7.'"
Ull
7-'" R"'mon9hr.Equ;1y
1-'"
Ull
1.'" RItIinId ill Cen Eq
L'"
11
K AI Dfw'dllD NIt: Prof
81
II the U.S.; SCJ'rMppe$1I Central ELrope) ttvoulJh
2000
2001
lL1G
17~
1M
US
.<2
.70
.04
1'
~15
i75

,.

...
I."

"'.1. ,,..>0

29 .
33.5
1.74
1.66
1.Ol'
1635.0 21361
15.1%
111'
77.1 126.6
10.6
62.5
45.8% 22.2'
3J%
3J%
195.9 11201.1
603.6 809.0
326.' 11<22
51%
Bn
61%
19.1%

..

,,.""
......:: :.-

".

...

""=

_i1.,
~'"...

_-

'''''

yllfbus license 8ITiIngtlI'Mnts. Has about 14,500 s~hoIIltn.,


11,700 em~
'99 depr ...... : 9.1". Oh. and drs.. CIWT11.4"
d sit., PepsiCo, 39.5% (3100 proxy). OInnn. & CEO: Bruc:8 cnelberg. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 3501 AVonquifl Rd" Raing t.IMcIDws, IL
60008. TeL: 706-818-5000. IrrtIlrn8t YffM.w~.mrn.

reflects WH as it is currently constituted.)


Management
expects a pJck up in
domesdc volumes. Whitman's domestic
unit (89% of worldwide revenues) sees a
2%-3% uptick In average seIling prices in
addition to a 3%---4%rise In volumes durIng the fourth quarter. The rollout of
Sierra Mis~ PepsiCo's new lemonfllme
soda, as wen as market share gains in the
non carbonated soft. drtnk segment. should
drive favorable comparisons.
A quick recovery in Whitman's Eastern European
markets
appears
less
certain.
The unit posted weak. comparisons in the third. quarter. as Inclement
weather in July limited soft drink. demand.
Moreover, weak local currencies meant
IUgher U.S.-based concentrate
and
an unfavorable translation effect of 9% .
And given the currencies' high COITe)ation
with the ailing euro, prollt vislbillty far
this operation remaJns limited..
These shares olfer decent 3- to 5-year
total-appreciation
potential.
Moreover,
the pending merger with PAS would Ukely
cause us to raise our earnings projections
and share-price targets .
Nils v.m Liew
November 10. 2000

C<JS'"

ab'

...

_.

60
NMF
NMF

e.ml.' ....

~
LE ORANYfRAOIlSORClllSSlONSH[R[ItI.1hi5~is*df'''''~CMll.IDI~''1mIIl1I5e.

il..,-piII!lIl. ~,.

~1ot"""'~-IIrIhJ

pa1

."pBIed~IlIecti'lftt"~.

30.0
10"

.... 3

_. 1:t2l): ... (I""~ '''',(2);./.''' '"" "" d ... ml, ,IlI.... (D) In .... (E) ,nO. ES~ ~
e Jan. (!!II Next ann. dHd mg. abl May 20, debt i1 '89, '90. (F) SpiI-ofI" of P8t, 111C.(0)
Stock'w. riceStablIlty
2001. Goes u
Ju .. 1st. Dft'd pmnl dl. Spil-olf of Hussman & Ui:IIs.
PriceCrowth
h...--a
abl 1st July. eC) Ind. in1lng.;" '99: $1,.16.3
ctablllJ
resenm.r~
__
is otuinllll fan ~
bIIieIIed to be .......
is pllrided ......
.......-s ~ ~ u.d.

891. tIWu W. then dl Exd. nom::.


Urns: '87, 47,; '89 (37,); "90, ($1.~; "9',
16; '92, (301); "93, (26I: "94, (1Sf; '97,
.. 2lXlD. YakJe", ~
TtiEPUBlJSHERISNlJlR.!:
till
JblllI. ~

,"

ma
0.'

.
3".

...

147.6
170.7
80.0

~...

,.

..

'.2.811

CaJl"~

12
10

'

,...

Receivablel
Inventory (FIFO)

10

. ...
..

1989
1990
1991
1986
1985
3.. 2 ".98
22.12 22...
37.61
.lA9
".50
3.05
1.56
2.71
1.18
H8
292
V9
2.92
.76
1.69
1.76
1>9
'.66 1.87 126
1.01
tOO
.16
.66
34
.11
l.7D
.93
1.87
121
1.83
.7<
08
1.90
8....
3.65
<32
13.61 14.87
15.77
15.59
3."
11227 lOW
1
lUl.lb
1... ,."
,3>
17.5
20.5
18.7
111
1.6
11.7
'62
.71
~ 34 112 1.10 1.32 1.39 1.10
2.6lI
3.'%
4.4'
3."
53'
'.211 HI 2.7'
CAprr,AL STRUCTURE as of 7/1.
2305D 23933
TotIl DMJl: $1241.1 mil. Due In 5 YI'S$525.5 mi.
15D'
13.7'
lT Int_rest $60.6 mil.
LT Debt $808.7 mi.
86.6
".3
139.5
60.'
(ll I'It8fest earned: 2.&; 1DCal i'rteIesf
.- ".5%
alYerage: 2.8xl
(52% d c.p1)
6.1'
'-'%
Las.,
UnCllplta[iZid Annual nnrtals $10.4 m1.
2025
Penlion U.blllly
"99 s. $4 . mil. 1I'ml.
1643.04' 895.9
PIlI Stock None
<61J
B5<D
9.3%
'.9lI
Common Stod: 136,346,601 shs . (48'1. of CaP')
16.3% 11."
uof7f2M1O.
IIARKET CAP: $1.8 blilan (liid Cap)
NIF
7.3%
CURRENT PQSrnON
11190 7(1101
105%
581
1984

'"

-1'".".11,
.'

32

.. TOT. RrnRI 1M1O

027"" tradMI
1988
1987

B2
819TlJ

..
24

--- - -

I 1

I'"

'111. 1'11'1',1"

.. ..

- -- - --

, ,

o.c:wona

:::"1 ~

Targef Pric_ Rang8


2003 200_ 2005

15.4
10.4

25A

50

"

OJf."."JA
101000000
000000000
D 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0
InstiluUonillJ
JOl"

28 .
14.9

p!ll

23"
12%

+55%

16.3

p ri

n."

':r, males

Insider Deeialon.

27.0
, 1.0

29.~
17.0

f .....

'"

(i~""T:I

30
20

~ b;~-r

/1.m.~d)

GaIn

38~
'n.S

IIIV'D
21.1~FlNE
IIedi.dU
Pl RATIO1 40 lID 0.3%
13 P~RATIO20 3 (Tlliiol

LEGENDS

~~5PROJEcnoN5
Pr1ce

I~CEHT
PRICE

~frpOlllct

,',

II:

II'.

WORTHINGTONIND.
NYSE.W~R . I~;r6.9 ~1ll 9.2 G:~:~nl~~ 0.64 ~
9.4%
5

lWEUIESS

L.uer:d121W1

SAFE1l

3 u-rr:d V'I~

TECHNtCAl

11.11

15.6

17.6

21.7

23.5

23.3

22.5

22.0

19.6

17.7

Target Price Ringe


2003 200. 2005

17.0

;L~""~'
'~9.~2~~8~.4~
~ '19.~'~~'2.~4~~'~'.~0~~17~.'~~1~8.~.~~17~.'~~1~'.~'
~~'0~.4~~'~'.~'~~8~~~~~~~~l~~~~
40
r.
ll.o.c' ... r....

2003-05PROJE~~S
Ann, TDIaI
Price
GaIn
RI'kIm
Hillh
35 . 1+405%\ 55"
llIW
25 1+260%1 42%
Inslcler Declalona
~..,
ClpIIM
.StII

11.3

i:";':z ~~

I.DIa'rfd fM'OO

.JO (1.00. MiIlQl)

IfTA

HIgh: I

LEGENDS

50

p".

SlnngUl

"""

HDI-l 11* 11)'lJ)


OtlIi:In~-Ye

Mt.I

mq/es

32

I~

12
10

.. . ' . . . .
0 I--+-_+:....,--t----~.-_+------"----''-''--'~,__-------_+----+_-+-_+
I

F A.
J J A S
1 2 3 " 3 1 1 1 1
200000000
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

..".

..,
:::'1

1HS

1Q2t11 2CZ.
JQ2.
75
78
se
37~
353:
~

I.'
sh_rn S.' ~
t,-.dM1 3.~

~...

P.lCllm

....

1)'1".
3

'.

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
6.18
752
8.09
8.78
9.89 11.14 10..22 9.86 10.91 12.38 14.19 16.33 1617
.~
-'"
.63
.64
.82
.94
.85
.n .92 1.06 129 1.66 1.~
.31
.41
.~
.45
.61
.10
.61
.50
.63
.14
.94
1.29 1.01
.11
.12
.13
.16
.18
.20
15
11
.31
.33
.37
.41
.45
III
11
.33
"
.33
.50
.61
.11
.51
.32
.51
.68
'lll
1.89
2.18
2.51
2.80
3.13
3.55
3.84
4.00
4.35
4.81
5.56
6.50
7.04
.....
OJ."
,,-'"
.Ul> .1.
'"."
"'.11
"'..
"'."
"'...
15.'
111
142
18.5
14.6 14.0
16.6 20.0
""
21.6 20..
15.8
1.44
.91
gr
f,t.f
121
1.00 123
1.28 1.35
1.28
1.35 t.(Ii
1.25
22%
2.5%
2.1%
1.9% 2,lJI4 2.1% 2.5%
2.1%
2l11.
2.0%
1.9%
2.0% 2.2%

5~:

"-.....

~
.U.5
-21.0

~
19.1
83.4

lJoTot RIlIBII 11l1li

fnstftutiona' Decisions

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 eVALIlEUllEPIIB


~C. D3-05
19.n
16.81 19.60 22.89 ZUlli SMpwsh
A
32.
1.50
1.49
1.10
1.99
1.1$ 'CuhFlow"""",
3M
.91
.85
.90
1.12
.75 Eanqsper_.
2.l
.~
.53
~7
.61
.15 Dtv'dIDKrdpll". c.,
.Ie
1.79
'lll
.83
.'" C... I~I""'"
,..,
7.40
B.07
7.67
7.85
17e BoakYllulperQ
1.UO
".11
"".,
.1
__
... WlSTD U
,.-110
20.4
21.8
'U
1l!
A'lIM.1PIlO....
I5.D
1.18
1.13
.84.B6
R*ffw'~ftdo
Uti
2.5%
2.9%
4.3%
42%
A'fIAnnUliY'd'nlld
.2.71

'-'0

19.9

CAPrrAl STRUCTUREuoU/J'*'
TotIl Debt $537.7 mil. 0l1li ... 5 Y~$I85.0ml.
LTDeblS361.7mil.

LTlmeJWI$36.0ml..

2D.B

551
37.0%
6.0%
119.6
42.5
344.4
14.81
16.01

874.9
11.3'

9742
12.'"

23.8

26.9

1115.1 1285.1 1483.6 '477.8


12.3% 11.8% 12.1% Ill'.
292

32.4

Other

392

912
382%
621
324.7
298.1
639.5
1021
14.31

bU

61.5

78.5

93.3
8~3
38.0% 31.01
4.9% 5.1%
341J
233.0
450.4 439.6
715.5 7102
8.8'
1.7%
13.01 10.5"

138.9 433.3
112.4 415.8
79.0 Worthington Ii
is likely to~ost
lower
ec1HungS in
seal 2001.
ee months
ANNUAL RATES Pat
Put Est'd ... 00 ago, by comparison. we had beUeved that
~~,(prf
...}
"~~"
the slow start to the accounting year
"Cash Flow"
7.5'1.
5.5%
9.D%
(whkh concludes on May 31, 2001) would
Eamklgs
4.0%
..().5%
13.m11
be a one-quarter affair. But, with an erven
weaker second quarter now under its belt,
FtM:at
FYI it seems clear that our earlier opt:imism
V.. r
QUARTERLYSAW ISd.)A
Fiac:aI was premature. In fact. with the volume
Ends Aug.3t No.,..so FlbJl !lay 31 VMr and pricing problems, which had impeded
1997 430.0 .458.6 486.6 536.5 1911.1 progress at the start of the year. still in
~:
387.5 392.7 397.5 446.7 ~::~
place, it would appear that even if we get
2000 409.3 436.4 422.1495.31962.6 a late-year reversal (which Is by no means
2DOt 463.0 473.3 486.5 539.8 1m assured, at this polnt), the 12-month tally
F"acaJ 484~,~:'
..~4
'ul will fall considerably shy of equaling the
V.. r
F"1Ka/ results posted in the prior year.
Ends Aug.31NoY.30 Feb.21 Illy 31 V.. r There's
nothing
structurally
wrong
t197
.23
.23
.23
.28
.?? here. In fact, by industry standards. this
1998
.22
.18
.19 .26
.85 steel processor clearly has its act together.
1999
.18
.20
.21
.31
.90 For
example,
finances
are
5Ound; its
2000
.26
.28
.26
.32
1.12
network of facilities Is in good shape; it
z001
.15
.08
~
.JZ
.75
QUARTERLYDIVIlENDSpAl)c.
continues to gain market share; and it Is
.~
Mar.31 JUft,31 Sen.30 Dec.31 :::~ no longer burdened by its sioce-divested,
r.;=-t""!';''-'---''''::~~'''''--''';.;''Y--~;Jand underperl"onning. andlJary lines.
1.
.11 .12 .12 .12
.41 So. assuming the pro~ssor'$
key steel
1997
.12
.13 .13 .13
.51 markets
regain
their footing in the
1998 .13
.13
.13
.14
.53 year
ahead. as the world's economJes
::
:~:
:~: ':~: :~~
.57 slow. but do not founder. we may still
Cumtnt

Liab.

427.7

.I

5:~% ID~O:

=.~191~ ~:~

34.1

~.6
55.5
661
84.9 116.1
36,3% 36.3% 37.0% 37.411, 37.5%
5.11 5.7% 5.9% 6.6\
1.9%
168.3 180.4 211.0 232.G
212.1
59.0 51.4
55.6
54.1
53.5
355n 388.7 433.' 503.9 500.3
11.31 12.9% 13.9" 1!l5% 18.6"
12.6% 14.3" 15.3% 16.8" 19.8%

1911.7 1624.4 1763.1 1962.6


10.8% 12.'% 12.7% 12.3%
n.D

"711
9.ft
75.1
SU
Jl.O'I
3.3
ZJD
..
,..
13

SUtllW) A
~....
DtprKidan(hilJ
NIl Pnllt I~I
mcor. Tu btI
NIIPn:ltllIIrgin
WartWll Cap' (1111)
Lon;TIm o.bI($nIIIf)
Shr.-~ Ilnili
R.... an TatllCIp'

n.
13-,",
aa

83.6
99.5
17.
31.0% 31.5%
31.01
(35"'ofCap'Q
4.7'4 5.1%
UI
Pension lI.bllIty
None
196.6 190.9
..,
PId S10cIl None
365.8 362.2
689.6 673.4
11"
Ccmmon Stod 85,154,525shs.
(65%of Cap'Q
9.9% 11.3'10
120ft
of Il3Ol00
12.1" 14.a% loft RIU'n an $hr. E~
1S,O'I
IIARKETCAP: $iOOmlllictn (smallC.p)
9.41
S.81
7.311; 8.S'"
fO~
IJ.6'"
B.ott
6~
4.11
4.51
6.~
1.'" RltllnldtoCllnIEq
III
CURRENTPOSrnON .5/31111 .5131100 !lJltDO
41'
54'
49% "'
39\
311
44'
41\
61% 63"
53'
'~AlDtv'c1stoNIIPraf
'""
ca:-~
7.6.5
2
BUSINESS: WCI1hi1gkln 1m:lustri8s, Inc. is in three busness 1i1es: stakes II I num. of pint verrhn op8f8lD1s. 'DO de~
,.
Receivables
281.7
3012
272.0 Pmcessed Sl8eI Pnxluds, Metal Framing, and Pressure Cyindeis. 6.0%. Has aboul8,OOO1lII'1PIs., 11,500 s11d11drs.
John H. McConnel
Inventory
257.0
291.2
301.1
PrDaISS8d S18e1 Products fwtIidI is I PJtaIS!Or of PatroIed It.. ~ owns lB.8'" at stoct (!WO Prmy). Chainn
end C.E.O.: Jotm P.
Othar
78..0
3 f.3
3D.7
Cummt AsSBb
624.3
624.2
604.0
COIJIisls at The Worthi'Igton S1ellI CorIl:lany ilOO h Gerstens.
McConnell; Pnsiderrl: Ind C.O.C.: Jobn S. ChristiB. lna:wpcnded:
Ar;ds Payable
181.3
158.0
160.8
Co. Metal Framing amaists 01 Diln:h Indusiies, Inc.. Pmslnl OhIo. AdchIs: 1205 O.-tlml Driv'll, CoUnbua, Otli:l430B5. Tel:
Debt Due
127.5 162.9 176.0 Cylndefs
coosists of WCKthi1gton Cyfmw
ConI. Also hDIds IQUiIy 614-438-3210.Internet www.WorthinglonlllCluR.iM.mm.

(LT intllf85l: 8iIl11ed: 4.8x; totIll11li1f8S1


coverage: 4.Ox)

91511
12.31

1'1

~~

19~'I!

'*

see a Wmeaningful
recovery
in fiscal
200Z.
e additionally base our eanUngs
forecast of $1.10 a share on the likelihood
of accretive showings from a pen~jotntventure affiUatlon with the Bing Group, as
wrll
as a healthy
showing from Steelpac
Systems. a recent startup that makes steel
shipping pellets. MeanwhUe, the company
has indicated that,
for now. it Is tabling a
trlo of previously annoWlced
acquishions.
We expect Worth:ln2ton to follow the
same script gOing forward.
namely to
gradually expand its processing lines with
startups.
expansions. and acquJsttions.
Such a course of aetton should pennlt the
company to gain market share, while not
overwhelming itself wtth debt. In all, we
feel this fundamentally sound concern has
earning power of $2.00 a share, given a
comparatively

healthy

Industry-

setting.

As such, we feel the company is on the


right track and view the cUlTent price
weakness as representing
a clear
case
of long-tenn
unde'n'B1uation.
But this
relatively stable Issue is best considered
by patient total-return-orlented investors,
given the stock's subpar TlmeUness rank.
Harvey S. Katz. CFA
December 29,2000

FISCalyear .nds M.y31st at call1ndar)'88l'. ttlange,"99, 8; I'lOI'WItQni1g gakl, "98,


29, JLlI'I8 29, Sep8nbel' 29. Dealmber. 29 .~ ~P.ny'.
FinlndtJ Stlftgth
B A ...... ge shares ttwDugh flSCill 1997, bssic bs8, '00, 6. NI!lxt earnings report Iidt hi.. DiY'dreinvem.nt pIriInbaiiable.(D) In mil.,
StDck.. Prlcl StabilltJ
themlller. EJlckldes bsses frcm disconlinued
(el Next dividend meeting 8bc.U: Feb. 23. Goes adjusted b HIck splb.
PrIQ Growth ~rsldlftcl
op8l'I1i:1ns, '98, 18; '99, ~;
-=tDUnt~ U Ibout MBr. 11. DiY'd payment dIIIes: Marcil
Earnings Pr.clletibllItJ
D 21Xll1, VIIue U- NIhtIioI& IIIe. All ri!IIts resentd. F.....
rn*riII il. ott ...
fnm SIUteS bIfIewd ID be flSltR _ is .. 1IIPidN wIhouI..,.e ~..,. U1d.
THE PU8USl-ER611JT R~{PONSlIIlflORAI ERRORSOR (NSSlOJIS HERE". Tllisp.aicalll~ *d1b~,
~rbkd"'acillL
inI..-Jr.oe. r.o~
I

I'.
: t t:
III n-., be ~
1bIIf Cf ~
ir MJpi'-. ....
c*f bm. .lMlIb tmeAIng Cf ~..,
pirIIIlIIa ~~
~.
~

B+
70
20
65
t t

Docket No. P-03-4


WORKPAPERS

to FJH-12

(Consisting of Workpaper # 1)

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH12
Page 1 of 7

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE


COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORMIO-K
ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR J5(dl
OF THE SECUJlJTII:S EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
For the fisco! year eaded December 31, 2002 Commission file number: 1-12202

NORTHERN BORDER PARTNERS, L.P.


(Exact name of

reg;BlrInt

u specified in its cbarter)

93-1120813

DELAWARE

(State or other jurisdiction


of incorporation or organization)

(I.R,S. Employer
Identification No.)

13710 FNB PARKWAY. OMAHA, NEB1lASJ(A 68154-5200


(Addres. of principal execulive offices)(zip code)
Registrant', telephooe number, illcIuding ...... code: 402-492-7300
SECURITIES

Title

REGISTERED

of each class

Name of each exchange

-------------~~---Common

PURSUANT TO SECTION 1Z(b1 OF THE ACT:

registered

New York stock Exchange

Units

SECURITIES

on which

REGISTERED

PURSUANT TO SECTION I1(&) OF THE ACT:

None
Indicale by check marl< whether the regisinnt (I) has filed all!CpOrts reqoircd to be filed by Section 13 or lS(d) of the Securities Exchange Ad
of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (ocfur such 'boner pmod thaI the ~
was required 10 ruellllCh rq>orts), mI (2) has been
subject to such filing reqWremetl!S for the past 90 days. Yos [Xl No [ )
lndicale by check marl< if disclOSIIIl' of delinquent fiI.... purIlWIllo Item 405 ofROll"lmOD $oK u not cortained hm:in, mI will DOt be
coDlained, 10 the best of registRnt's knowledge, in definitive pro")' or information statanenll incofllOClled by ref ....... in Put m of this Form
la-K or any am"""'-tlOthU
Form la-K. X
Indicale by check marl< whether the registr1Dl is an accelented filer (u defined by Role 12b-2 of the Seauities Exchange Act of 1934). Ye,
[X)No[]
-

---_._------_._----------------------Poge ---------------_._--------------------

Docket No. P~3-4


Wortcpaper # 1 to FJH-12
Page20f7

lpinst certain of the Eonm ",lated Chapter II c:cmpaDie. We ore uncertain ",garding the ultimate omount of damages for bn:ach ofCOlllncl
or other claims tIutt we will he able to establish io the bankruptcy prooeeding, IIDlI Wll cannot predict the amounts tIutt we will coll.ct or tho
timing of collection. W. believe, however, that any
36

.-------------------------------------------------------------------------Pavt_k-----------------------------------------------------------.
such delay in collecting or failw-.: to collect will
IIOt be material to UI.

not

haw: a matoriaI ad....., eIFect on our financial condition, and any amounts colloctod will

'

Northom Plains and NBP Servica have advised us thaI wxI..-the OporatiJIB Agr<emeDIs with Northorn Plains and the Administrative Servicea
with NBP Services, incn:ased colllll may he incurred for beaIth care expor1SOlI and pension bonofns. Su<:h colllll ..., projoctod to
inc:reue u a ru.dt of aetIIII medical claims "",,""once, palSion investment RtUms and effects of the &ron bankruptcy liIing. While the
dd.enninlllion ofreimhunanenl
of such colllll by UI undtr the appropillle ogreement will he owIe IIIthe time of oa:urrenco, .... estimat. an
inc:reue of S6 minion 0..... 2002 level .

Asr-ent

Enron is the grmnor of the Eoron Gas Pipeline Bmployee Benefit Trost (tho "Trost"), which when taken togo:th..- with tho Baon Corp. Medical
Plan for Inactive Participants (the "Plan") c:oustitutos a "volutIIarY _Ioy ...' benefi~ usociation" or "VEDA" wxI ... Section 501(c)(9) of
. the ImanaJ Revenue Code. In 0ct0btI- 2002, Northern Plains was advised that Boron had natified the committee, that hu administrati .. and
ficlucisry ovoraight rdaied to the TfUIt and the Plan, that &mo had mode tho dotennination to begin neces.1t)' stqJ. to putitiDn tho useta Df
the 'Ftust and the related liabilities of tho Plan among all of the participating employen of tho Trust. The TfUIt was OSIahlished u a ",gu1alory
for iDcbuion of certain COlIlII for posI_loymeol medicol honofi1s io the rilles established for the lIffected pipelines, iDcluding UI.
Enron ",quested tho enrolled actuary to ~
an analysis and recommendation for tho ailocation urthe Trost' ... _ and u.ocialed liabilities
among all tho participating emplDy..-I. Eoron ma_ent
has advised that it intend. tD seo:I< bankruptcy court approwl for the termioation of
the TfUIt IIIId for the participlting employ ... to establiah a sepant. trUII adc>quale to RICCi.. tho .......

""I"irim-

Eoron presented to the creditors' committee a propollll ueder which specified care energy ...... of Boron would he sepsrllled
Iiom Boron'. hankruptcy _
and Dpenlcd prospectively as a new integiated po_md
pipeline company. On August 27. 2002, Boron
announced that it had commmced a follllll1 sales process fnr its intORSll in certain IDIljDrassets, including NDrthom Plains, Pm BDrd..- and
NaP Servicea. However, on March 19, 2003, &roo anDlJIUIlCCd that ila BoanI ofDirectocs bad voted to move forward with thcaeation or.
new pipeline opending entity rather than sell its interests in its North American pipelines. This new company. temporvily referred to IS
"Pipeco". will include Northern Plains, Pan BDrder and NBP Services. Eoron's annotmcemeot also stIIlcd that Boron expects PipeCo to be
govemcd by an indqx:ndeut hoard of directors and afIlmIed protectinn Iiom joilll and several BnroD group liabilities and that upon """lutiDD
ofEoron'. Cbapter 11 bankruptcy case, it Inticipates that Iharos ofPipeCD will he distributed to credilon in COnnectiODwith the P1ao of
ReorganiutiDn. Eoron also stIIlcd that it i. evaiUlting the potentiaIlllle ofo minority interest in PipeCo. The formntiDn DfPipoCo will ~uir.
various Boron Board, bsnkruptcy cowt and ot!IOr f08'I\alory approvals. .. well .. the consent of the Boron'. Official Unscao-ed CRdito ....
Committ ...

OIl May 2, 2002,

37

-----------------PagelllOak----------------Enron'. filing for hanlauptey protection IIIId ",l"ed develDpments have had other impacts Dnour business and managemen1. Arthur Andersen
u.P resigned in .... ly 2002 u

OW" auditors, and "" retained KPMG u.P .. our now auditors. Eoron Iw received .......... "'QUests for
infunoation from differerrt agencies and committees of the United Stales House of Represmtati ... and Senate. Som. of the infunnalion
requested from Enron may iDclude infunnatioo about us. In addition., we arc aware that the Scoate Committee OD GoYCI'IUDcntalMain has
issued a IUbpoma to Eoron requesting dDallDODl. disclosing Boron', collUDllniclllioos with the SEC and the FBRC. as well .. information on
compensation matten. As a result of Eonm'. indirect awnenhip interest in U5, we have hoeo asked to comply with the mandate Dfthe subpoms
in such a IIWIJI<s that may he detennined hy the Committee on GovornmentaI AIfairs.Dfthe Senate of the United States.

POSSIBLE EFFEcrs

While Northorn Plains, Pan Border and NBP Services haw: notliled for Chapt..- II bankruptcy protectiDD, their !llock is owocd by EnroD,
which i. in bankruptcy. As nDted above, Eoron could .. II its interest in Northern Plains andIDr PIIItBDrder, or take other action with respect to
their investment in Northern Border Partn ..... Enron could also cause Northern PlaiD' IIDlI Pm Border to liIe fur bankruptcy protectiDn. We
have had DO indiClllion from Enron. that it intends to cause such compaDie. to file for bankruptcy protection.
We are mllllal!ed by a three member policy committee, with one member appointed by OIch general partner. The vole Df each member Dfth.
policy committ .. ill weighted by the gmonJ pannor pert:ellIage of tho general partner appointiJIB such member. Tho g....... partner
porcernages for Northom Plains, Pan Border and Northwest Bonier ..., 50"h, 32.5"10 and 17.5%, ",.pecti.. ly. IfBmon wen: tD sell the stoclc Df
Northern Plain. and Pm Border, the purelwer would have the right to appoint a majority Df DUfpolicy committu, IIDlI control tho activities of
the Partnership. IfNorthem Plains and Pan Border wen: to file for hankruptcy relief. our Partnership Agreement provide. that they WDuld
autoaulticaJly he doemed 10 have withdnlwn as gen=1 partners ofthe Partnership. It i. possible thaI the eoforceabmty of the automatic
withdrawal provi.iDns in this partnership agreement may be challenged The sucooss and intplCl of a challenge ..., unknown. Upon the
OCCUrrenceDf sncb an event of withdnwal. the remaining general partner has the right to purchase the withdnwing partners' general
pBl'1:Jlershipinterests. If the remaining genenJ partner does not purchase such general partnership interests. the limited partners have the right to
elect new a:cnera.l partners. [n the event that the rmnaininp; a:eneral nartner does not erect to purchase the Reneral partner interests or a successor

Docket No. P-G3-4

Worttpaper II 1 to FJH-12
Page 3 017

For 2000, our bom>wings on 100000-tenndebt were $431,1 million, which were u,ed for botIi n:payment' of previously existing indebtednes'
and to fmaoce a portion of our acquisitioos, Issuancea oflOllllterm debt included nel proceeda fiom the private offering of tho 2000 Panoenbip
Senior N",es ofapproximmely
$252.0 million; borrowings under tho Portnenhip" aedit _en
.. ofS102,5 millinn; and borrowings under
Northern Border Pipeline's cn:dit agr_
of $75.0 mimoo. TDlIi n:payments of debt were S304,8 million in 2000,

For the yeor ended December 31, 2001, Northern Border Pipeline J'OCOlPIized I declelSe in bonk ovadrall of$22,4 million AI December 31,
2000,1'1_
BonIer Pipeline n:fIocted the bonk ovonlnft primuily due to ... n:fimd,checb outstIDding,
In April 2002, Northern BonIer Pipeline received $2,4 mimon fi'om the tennioI1ion of furward IIlIrting intereot I1Ite swlp agreementI, In MIrcb
200 I, ...., poid opproxilJllldy $4,3 million to termiDite forward ItIrting interest nIe swap agreements and in Sc:ptemb<r 200 I, Northern Border
Pipeline poid ~Iy
$4.1 million 10 terminIte intoreot nte swop agreements. The interest ... swaps 1wl been entered iD1D10 hedge the
f1uctuItioos in Treuuy fIloo and aprqds between the _ion date of the swops and the isSUlDOOof fixed "e debt by Northern Border
Pipeline and UI (_ Nole. NoleI1o CoosoIidIted f'1DIDciII S1I1emeru) .. m Docomber 2000, we RIlZivod SIS.O million fi'om the ll!IDIinIlion
of interest me swsp agr ... De4U entered into ill June 2000. Also in 2002, we agreed to IlIl iDallllO in the vuilble inIt:rest nte on two of our
interest nde swop _eots, As collSiderition for the clw>ge1o the vuilble interest rille, we received oppmximI1eIy S \8.2 mimon, which
represented the &ir value oftt..: financW inmumelllS It the dot. of the adjUltment. We used the proceedI1o reply ODIOUDIS borrowed uod ... the
2001 Partnenhip Credil Agreement.
NEW ACCOUNTING

PRONOUNCEMENTS

In the third quorter of2001, the rU1lIlcW Accounting StIDdarda Boud SFAS No, 143, "Accounting for Asset Retirement Ob\igstions" and in
2002, the FASB issued SFAS No. 145, "Rescission ofFASB Sllllement,No. 4, No. 44 sod No. 64, Aloendmenl,to
FASB S1I1_
No. 13
and TecbniCII Con-ocIi_" and SFAS No. 146, "Accounting for
ABsocisted with Exit or DispoSll A<:tiviti ... " See 1'101. lJ Noles 10
Consolidated rlDlDcill SlitemenlS.

eo...

UPDATE ON THE IMPACT OF ENRON'S CHAPTER

11 FILING ON OUR BUSINESS

2, 200t, Enron filed a voluntary petition for bankrupU:y protection under Choptor 11 of the United S..... Bankruptcy Code.
Certain wooDy owned Eoron subsidiaries also filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection OD December 2. 2001 and thereafter. We have not
mod for banlauptcy protection. Nonhern Plai.s, Pan Border and Nortbwest Bord
our general partners. Each ofNonbern Pili .. and Pm
Border are wholly owned subsidiari .. ofEnron, and Northwest Border is I wholly owned subsidiary ofTfllDSCanadI. Northern Pilius and Pan
Border were not _
the Earon computi .. 6Iillg fur Chopter 11 protection.

00 December

-_tIiat

35

_ __

-'-"'.,
..........................
"--11u: business ofEmtin and its subsidiaries
hive filed' fur bankruptcy protoclion are currenlIy being administered uod tho direction and
cootrol of the bankruptcy court. An unsocuml a<ditors CODUDilloehas been appoinled in the Chlpter II cases, Tho creditors conuoittee is
responsible for genonl ova-sishl of the bankruptCy ..... and bas the power, IIIIOng other things, to: investiglte the acts. conduct, .......
liabilities, and financial condition ofthc debtor, the operation of the debtor's business and the desirability of the oontinuaI1CC of such busincss;
plrticipale in the fnrmu1Ition of .. plln of .-ganizItioo; and fil.ICc<ptlllll:es or rejections 10 such I pion. Facto .. liken into IA:COlIlll by Emon
io making ils busin ... decisioos while in Chopter 1\, may include decisions with r.. pect to ill inv_.t
in Northern Pilins and PIlIl Border,
which decisions may affect us.

......

,/

CURRENT EFFECTS

EnroD" filing for bankruptcy protection has impacted us. At the time of the filing of the bankruptcy petition, we had a number of conlI1Ctol1
relationship.
with Earon IlIld it, subsidiarie,. NBP Sem.,.. ColJlOrotion, a whollj' owned subsidil1}' ofEnron tlw i,ool in banlauptcy, .. d
Nonhern Plain, provided and COIltiaue to provide operIting and administralive sem ... fur UI and our sub'idiaries. Nonbern Pili .. and NBP
Services have axttimed to meet their operational and administrative lCNiu obligations under the existing agreements. and we believe they
will continue to do 50.

ENA. a wholly owned subsiwl1}' ofl!nron thlt is ;0 bankruptcy, w .. a puty 10 trllDSportalion contraots obligsting ENA to ply for 3.5% of
Northern Borda' Pipeline', copacity. Through the pmcred;n& ENA rejected and terminaled aU orill contracts on Northern Border Pipeline.
Nonhern Border Pipeline contt1leted a portion of that capacity with others fur vuying tenus. For 2002, Nonhern Border Pipeline experienced
lost ..... nu .. of IpproxilDlloly SI.8 million fur ENA's copacity. Northern Border Pipeline bas clsim' against ENA fur dIInag .. fur breach of
mtracl1Dd other clIims.

In addition, Bear Paw EnelBY' has claims against ENA relating to tenninated hedge transactions. In accordance with SF AS No. 133. Bear Paw
Energy ceased to account for these swop agreements .. hedges. Bear Paw Energy had previou,ly recorded opproximslely S6.7 million in
acamwlated other comprehensive income related to these agreements. whicb is being recorded into earnings in the same periods of the
originally forecasted hedge,. In 2002, Bear Pow Energy recorded spproximately $4.6 million in eontings relsted to the terminsled hedge~
Also, Crestone Energy Ventures has claims against ENA for unpaid gas gathering and adminislrative

services fees.

Docket No. P-43-4

Workpaper # 1 to FJH-12
Page 40f7

<hang. of control (and ooosequently an event of defaull) Ihereuud..- if subsidilri .. ofEnron and Th. Willi .... Compani do oot control, free
Df any liens, great..- than 50'10 of genooaJ partn..- _laBes. Th. WiUilllllB Companies sold the stod<. of Northwest Bonier Pipelioe Company
to TI"IIIllCanada. Conoequmtly, ifEDlOn
the ~
ofNonhern Plains and Pan Bonier or oau ... such companies to fil. fur bankroptcy
relief. the PII'trIerIhip will be in defauk UDder the 2001 Partncnhip Credit Agreement. In addition, the agreements evidencing the Pulnfnhip'.
other IDIIesiaI OUlIIanding debt

.eIl.

38

.
obligations

provide

thaI an uncured def.uk

PoIlO_l<-k---'---------------

UDder one malerio! debt _,

will ...... ll in. defilull under other debt agreementa.

NOIlhem PIai .. oIso ....... II op<nlor ofNOI1hem Bonier Pipeline. IfNonhern Plain. w .... to fil. for bankruptcy relief. il c:ooId potentiauy be
............s II operator. Certoin of Northern Border Pipelin.'.,;redil ~
provide that it would b. an evOll1 of defiult the<eunder if
Northern Plains i. "'Placed II operalDr without the tDIISOI1I Dfthe lenders therewlder.

1_.

n. Administrati""

Savices Asr-nl beIween NBP Savices and us providea that it willlerminate .t IKU:h time .. Northern PIV .. is no
getUO"oI partner oflbe PamaWp.
Coosequently, since nus Partoersbip Agreem.nt P"'videa tbat general partDer is automatU:olly
withdrawn II general partner upon filing ofbankruplc:y. ifNorthem Plain! w .... 10 fil. for banlauptc:y relief. lhe Admioistrati"" Sonioea
As-m0lll
would be taminoted

senora'

Our Putnenbip
AgreeIhent requira thai each
partner make additional cepital c:ontnllutiolllio us when we .. U common units. ED!On
may determine that it is _ in the best interest of il1 c:reditors and other c:oostituenci.s in baolauptc:y 10 make these capitol comibutions 10
Northern PlaiDs and Pan BonIer. Enron could therefore decide DOl10 aUow us to pursue acquisitions liMnoed with the issuance of additionol
lXIIIIDIlln units. E .... ifEnroB were 10 pennit the go ...... partnen; 10 make. capital contribution to us, if the g.n ..... partnen ..... 10
oubsequently file for baukruptc:y relief. the Clpital contribution might be subj.<:t to chaI1eng ... voidable under applicabl.law.

Other than the items

set forth above,. we are not are not aware many claims made against UI that arise out of the Enron banbuptcy cues. We
continue to monitor developments at EnrOll. to assess the impact on us of our existing agnemcnts aDd relationships with &roo and its
subsidiaries. and to take appropriate action to protect our interests.

OUTLOOK
We He focwJed
components.

OD

growing our businesses, our income and cash flow and our distributions
..
INTERSTATE

to

unithot.ders. Our stJ1Itegy inwlV'CI three main

NATURAL GAS PIPELINES

F'1Ul. we will contil&l. to foals OIl safe, efficient, .... d reliable opentions and the liJrther deve10pment ofoue regulaled pipelines. We inlmd 10
maintain OW" position as a low cost transport.er oft.nadian
gas 10 the midwmem U.S. and provide IDahJy valued services to our CUitomcrs.
Any growth in our iDterstate pipdines would occur through inc:n:mental projc:et.s intended 10 access new markets or &Upply IlelS and. would be
aupponed by long-term COIltB<:U: W. are currently working with producers and marketers 10 dev.lop the cotIlnu:tualsuppolt
fur. new 300mil. pipelin. projecl, the Bim. Pipeline, 10 oonnec:t the coal bed .... hule resezves in ,he Powder River Basin 10 markets SOl""d by Norlbero
Border Pipeline. In addition, Midwestern Go Transmissiob's recently 'completed Joliet Compression Project provides the opportunity
39

-------------------lPageS

....
l<-k------------------

Docket No. P-03-4


Worlqlaper# 1 to FJH-12

Page 5 of7

TI'EM 10. PARTNERSHIP MANAGEMENT

We .... manogecI und ... tho direction of the Putnonbip PoUcy Committee consisting of.throe memb ..... each ofwbich has been appointed by
ODe of our ga>eral pu1nl:n. The I1IOIIlbenappointed bY Northom Plains, Pili BonIor and Northwest Bonl ... have SO%, J25'1t and 1750/..
reopeaivdy, of the votins power. We Ibo have III audit committoe comprised ofindividuala who are oeither offioon nor employees ofmy
geo<nI portner army afIiliate of. gm:rII portner, to _
u. committecofthe PlI1Il<I1bip (the "Audit Committee"). The Audit Committee
baa ouIhorily IlId ,,,,,poa.ibility for Ic:Iecting our iadopeadOlll audit .... te\'iewiag our ....w audit and resoll'ing IOCOWIliag policy qullllliOllS.
The Audit Committee Il1o baa the authority to reYiew, lit the RqUesl of a geacnI partnoi, opecific matten u to which seaenl pam. believes
tbere lII&y be coaI1ict of ial...... in onIer to dotamiae if the teor>kJtim of ouch conflict propo9Od by the Pu1benbip Policy Committee is fair
oad rou<JIIIble to Ill.
As is COIIIIIIOII1y
the cue with ... blicly-ln4ec1 pIlIDenhips, __ do 1I<lI_1y employ any of the pcnotII r""pon.ibl. fur m.ugiog ar opentiag
the Por1DenIIip or fur povidiDg it _
oervices relllina to illday-to-daybuoinesa alDin. We have ealaed ia10 III AdmiaiotmiYe Servioes
Agreement with NBP Servioes Corpcnlion, whoUy-<Jwaed.. bsidiary of Barna dIot baa lIOlfiled fur bd:nIptcy pnJ(eClioa, puRUaIIllo which
N8P Services provides tax, accouating, \ega1, cub managemeut, investor relatiOll5, opcraling led _
acniees
the Partnenhip. NBP
Services bu approximately I3S employ_ It IIso
employees of&roo or illaffil....... who bIve duties and respoasibiliti ... _
tiIID
tbooe roIatiuIl to the Administrative Servica Asr.......... 10 COllIidention fur ill acnice' und ... the Administrative Servicea Agroemeut, NBP
Services is reimbuned fur ill direct led iDdim:t costa aad _
including an allocated po<tiOll of employee time aad Emoo', overbtad
costs. See IIem 13. "Catlin RelI1ioosbipo and Related TranlIIctions." .

u_

roc

Set forth below is cerWn infonnaliou ooaceming the memben of the PIl1nallIJip Policy Committee, our ..-011 the Northem
Bonier Manlgemem Committee led the penoos desi_ed
by the Putnenhip Policy Committa: u oor emmive 08icen and u Audit
Committee memben. All m... b.... of the Partnenhip Policy Committee and oor represe:otaIiv ... 011 the Northun _
Minagement
Committee _at
the dil<ntioa of the gencrll portner that appointed lhem. The penons desigo"led u esecutive offi.... _
in that capacity
at the discmioo of the Partnenbip Policy Committee. The members of the Partnenhip Policy Committee reoeiv. DO lIIllllIllemeul ree or otbcr
remunenttion for ..mag on thi, committee. The Audit Committee memben are elected, led m.y be mnoved, by the Putnenbip Policy
Committee. The CbIinnan oftbe Audit Committee receives an annuli fee of 5S0,ooo and other Audit Cornmitta: memben receive an annuli
ree of540,ooo and each iI paid 51,SODfur each meeting attmded. As. resulloflbe purcbaleby T.....c.a.da of the getJCrll1 partner inlere"
held by Williams, etr.etive August 2002. Paul Mac<naor was d ignaled by TransCanada u illmember on the PllflrIenhip Policy Committ ..
and one of our represeotalivel on the Northern Bordes' Management Committee. replacing James C. Moore. Ths-e are DOfamily ~onship5
betw= any of oor ex<attive offi ..... or mcmbcn of the Partoenbip Policy aad Audit Committees.

47

Docket No. P-03-4


Workpaper # 1 to FJH-12
Page 6 of7

ITEM 12. SECURITY OWNERSBIP

OIl CERTAIN BENEFICIAL

OWNERS AND MANAGEMENT

The following table _

fortb the beneficial ownership of the voting .erorities of the Partnership .. of Much 3, 2003 by our .. eartive olliCDB,
II1l:IIIb.... ofllE Partn .... bip Policy Committee snd the Audit Committee who own units and by eatain beneficisl 0WDen. Other tIw1 .. set
fu<th below, DO penon is Imown by lIE general partners 10 own beneficially more .bM 5% of the votinasecuritieo.

Amount and Nature of Beneficial

ownership

Cammon units
Number
of Unitsl
William ~. Cordes
11
13110 FNB Parkway CDlaha,

Jerry L. Peters
13710

FHB

Omaha,

N. Petersen

3520

Wedgewood

Plymouth.

1,000

15.000

5,619

HE 68154-5200

Stanley C. Horton 1/
1400 Smith Stteet
Houston, TX 71002-7369
Gary

1,000
NE 68154-5200

1/

Parkway

Percent
of Class

Ln. N

MN 55441-2262

Enron Corp. 2/
1400 S~th Street
Houston. TX
71002

3,210,042

7.3

Less than 1%.


11All units involve sole vo~

and investment

PQWeI'.

'1J Indirect OWIleBbip through its subsidiaries. Nortbera Plains is the bcne6ci.1 owna- of 500,042 Common Units. Sundance Assets., L.P. is the
beneficial owner of2,7tO,OOO.ln.
Schedule I3DtA filina in IanWlJ}' 2002, it w.. disclosed that dispositive power of Sundance Asset., L.P. is
shared by Enron and Citibank, N.A
For information 01\ equity CODlpCIlSOlion plllJlJ oftbe PlItDership,
Holder Ma1tc:rs .
ITEM 13. CERTAIN RELATIONSBIPS

see Item 5. "Markd for !l<8istrant's Common Uoits and R.ellted SeoJritie.

AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS

On o.cember
2, 200I,l!oron
and certain ofn. subsidiaries filed voluntary petitions for Chapter II R<lrganization under the Bsnkruptcy Code.
We have a Dum'bts ofrelatiomhips with EnrOll and its subsidiaries. Through

54
Enron's ownership oftMl of our _,
partn .... EnrOll is able to elect meJlJben Mth. majority of the YDting power on the Pannersbip Policy
Committee and Northcm Border Pipeline Management Committee. Such oIhcr relationships include the following:

o Nortbern Pb.ins, a subsidisry of Enroll, which bas not filed for banlauptcy protec:tioll, provide. certain administrative, operating and
management services 10 the PllltD<:nhip. For the yea< <llded December 31, 2002, the aggresstearnount
c:harsed by Northern Plains for its
services was approximately $29.1 million.

o NBP Services. a subsidiill)' ofEnron that is not in bankruptcy. provides the Partnership services in connection with the operation and
management
of the Partnership and operating services for Crestone Energy Ventures and Bear Paw Energy pUr5WUlt to the terms of an
Administrative Services Agreement betw=n the Partnership and NBP Services. For the year ended December 3 t. 2002, the aggregate amount
charged byNBP Services ror its SCI"\I'iceswas approximately 516.2 million.

Docket No. P-43-4


Wol1lpaper # 1 to FJH-12

Page 7 of7

Midwestern au TrIII5mi5siOIl ENA'. Ibility 10 utilize iI. capacity has been suspended Until ENA provide, adequaIe USUIIDCOS
of credit
IUppon and payment. Midwoslem au Transmi,uoD'.lbility to lermioate ENA'. cootncI is lIl&yedU 1 reoult oflbe banIallpt<y court
proeeecIiog ..
See Item 7. "Monagemeot'. DiIQlSlion and Analysi. ofFilllllcial
Chapter II Filing 00 Our Busines,"

Conditiau and Rcouhs of()perotioM Update 011The Impact OfEoron'1

Fo<n1 partoen. estIblishos Ibe busioess polloi .. oflbe


Pon--ahip. We ha ... throe
on the Northa'a BonIa" MoDagemeoI Committee, eaob ofwbom VOla 1ponion of our 70'10 interest
aD the NOIthem Border MmIg<:ment
CommiItee, with the _
30% interest beiog VOIed by 1n:pteSOIlIa1ive ofTC PipeLines, whicb i, aD
ofIiliate of 000 of our g.....,.] panoon.

Tho PIlInoI\lbip Policy <:ommilt ... wbose membc:r. are desigol\Cld by our thRe

..,......mati"".

Our gta<nI par-. (subsidiari .. ofEm-on and 1subsidiary ofTm"c"Dlda)


and their "'"Jl'll'IiWl affiliates, a.mm1y ICliYely_
or may
engage in the busin ..... iD wbich we engage or in which we may _e
in the filtuno. As 1reouIt. conflicts of intm:st may ui.. botween our
gencnI par-. and tIleir affiliates on the .... haod, and the PlItllcnbip au Ibe _
haod. In ..... ClIOIbe memb<n of the Partnonbip Policy
ComDliIlee will geaeroIly have 1 liduciory doty to resolve sucb coofIiClS in 1 ......... tbat is in our _ interest.
&roo (the pueot of two of our g.....,.] partoen) and its affiliales and TC PipeLines (I 30'10 owner ofNorthem Border Pipeline CompaDy
wbo'" gc:oeral panner is aD affilime of 000 of our genenI putnen) aDd its afIiliotes 1100actively _
in int_ pipeline tnnsportolioo of

ss

Docket No. P-03-4


WORKPAPERS
(None)

to FJH-13

Docket No. P-03-4


WORKPAPERS
(None)

to FJH14

Docket No. P-03-4


MISCELLANEOUS

WORKPAPERS

(Consisting of Workpapers

# 1 - 3)

Docket No. P-03-4

Miscellaneous Workpaper # 1
Page 1 of 11

Beta and Return


"Announcements

of the

'death'

of beta seem premature."

Fischer Black

ugene Fam.:>.says (acco<ding to Eric Berg of


11.. New York Timu, February 18, 1992)
"beta as the sale vuiable explaining returns
on scocks is dead:' He also says (accotding to
Michael Peltz of Institutional Investor, June 1992) that

the relation between average return and beta is

FtSOiER.

BLACK.. is a partner at

Goldman. Sachs at:: Co. in New


y~

BETA"'HO~N

(NY 100(4).

compktdy fiat.
In these interviews, I think that Farm. is misstating the result>in Fam.:>.and French [1992J. Indeed, I
think Farm. aod French, in the text of that article,
misinterpret their own data (and the findings of
others).
Black, Jensen, and Scholes [BJS, 19721 and
Miller and Scholes [1972J find thar in the period from
1931 through 1965 low-bet:!. stocks in the United
States did better than the apit:l! asset pricing model
(CAPM) predicts, while high-bet:!. stocks did worse.
Sevenl authors find that this pattern continued in
subsequent years, at least through 1989. Fam.:>.and
French extend it through 1990.
All these .uthors find that the estimated slope of
the line relating .venge return and risk is lower than
the slope of the line that the CAPM says relates
expected return .nd risk. If we choose our st:otUng and
ending points carefully, we can find a period of more
than two decades where the line is essentiolly flat.
How can we interpret this? Why is the line so
flat? Why have low-bet:!.stocks done so well relative to
their expected returns under the CAPM?
Black [1972] shows that borrowing restrictions
flt.lJ,.

1991

Docket

No. P-03-4

Miscellaneous Worllpaper # 1
Page 2 of 11

(like mHgin requirements)


might c.use low-beta
stocks to do relatively well. Indeed, F.",. md French
refer often to the Sharpe-Linmer- Black (SLB) model
that includes these borrowing restrictions. This model
predicts only that the slope of the line rebting expected return .nd beb is positive.
Faro. and Freneh cWm to find evidence .gainst
this model. They say (for ex.mple, on p. 459) that
their results useem to contndicc" the evidence that the
slope of the line relating expected return md be.. is
positive.
This is a misstatement. in my view. Even in the
period they choose to highlight, they c:mnot rule out
the hypothesis that the slope of the line is po.itive.
Their results for be .. and .verage return are perfectly
consistent with the SLB model.
Moreover, if the line is re:illy lbt, that implies
dramatic investment opportunities for those who use
be ... A per>on who norm:illy holds both stocks and
bonds or stocks and c.. h can shift to porrfolio of
simibr toul risk but higher expected rerum by emph.sizing low-be .. stocks.
Be .. is v:olu.ble investment tool if the line is ..
steep .. the CAPM predicts. It is even more v:oluable if
the line is lbt. No matter how steep the line is, be .. is
alive and well.

n.ture, research involves many f:LIse sbrts .nd blind


:illeys, The results that le.d to published p.pers He
likely to be the most unusual or striking ones. But this
me.ns that any Sbtistical rests of significance will be
gravely biased.
The problem is worse when people build on
one mother's work.. Each decide. on model closely
related to the models that other> use, learns from the
others' blind :illeys, md may even wotk with mostly
the same dab. Thus in the real wocld of research,
conventional tests of significance seem :LImost worthless.
In particulH, most of the so-c:illed .nomalies
th.t h.ve plagued the literature on investments .eem
likely to be the result of dab mining. We have liter:illy
thousands of researche" looking for profit opportunities in securities. They are :ill looking at roughly the
same da ... Once in while, just by chance, strategy
will seem to have worked consistently in the past. The
researcher who finds it writes it up. and we have a new
anomaly. But it generally vanishes as soon as it's
discovered.
Merton [1987, pp. 103-108] h.. ~n excellent
discussion
of these problems.
He says (p. 108)
"although common to :ill :0= of economic hypothesis
testing, these methodologic:Ll problems .ppear to be
- especi:illy acute in the testing of market ntionality."
The "size effect" may be in this category. B:mz
DATA MINING
[1981) finds that fums with little stock oU05anding (at
When a. researcher tries many ways to do a market v:olue) had, up to that time, done well rebtive
to other stocks with simibr bew. Since his study was
srudy, including various combinations
of expbmtory
factors, various periods. and various models, we often published, though, smill firms have had mediocre md
inconsistent performance.
say he is "dab mining." If he reports only the more
nma and French [1992] continue studying the
successful runs, we have hard time interpreting :my
smill-firm effect, and report simibr results on largdy
Sbtistical :m:Llysis he does. We worry that he selected,
from the m:my models <tied, only. the one. that seem overlapping dab sample. In the period since the B:mz
study (1981-1990),
they find no size effect .t ill,
to support his conclusions. With enough dab mining,
:ill the re>ults that seem significant could be just acci- whether or not they control for beb. Yet they cbim in
their p.per .that size is one of the vari.bles
that
denul. (1.0 and MacKinby [1990] refer to this as "dab
captures" the cross-sectional variation in aver.il.ge
mooping." Less fortn:illy, we c:ill it "hindsight.']
stock. returns.
D~b mining is not limited to single research
.,F.",. and French :LIsogive no reasons for. rebstudie.. In single srudy, researcher can reduce its
effects by reporting :ill the runs he does, though he still tion between size and expected return. They might
th.t smill finns .re consistently
underpriced
may be tempted to emphasize the results he likes. D.b
becalise.they
are
"neglected"
in.
world
ofbrge
instimining is most severe when many people are srudying
tutioOal investors. But they do not give us tbat reason
rebted problems .
or any other reason. L:tck of theory is tipofE watch
Even when each person chooses IUs problem
independently
of the other>, only smill fraction of out fot dab mining!
F.m nd French also find that the ratio of
reseHch efforts result in publish"d
p.pers. By its

.rgoe

TlfEjOUR.NAL

OF POP.Tl'OUO

MANAGEMENT

Docket No. P'{)3-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 1
Page 3 of 11

book volue to the market volue of the firm's equity


when tbey attribute them to unexplained "priced
helps capture the cross-scction:ol "'riation in average facton," or give no ~asons at all for the effects they
stock returns. They favor the idea that this ratio
find.
captures some sort of rationally priced risk, rather than
Strangely, the factor th.t seems most likely to be
market overreaction to the rehtive prospecll; of finns. priced they don't discuss at all: the bet>. factor. We can
But they say nothing about what tltis risk might be, or construct the bet>. f.ctor by cre.ting a diversified portwhy it i! priced, or in what direction.
folio that is long in low-bet>. stocks .nd short in smallThey mention the possibility that this result i! er amountS of high-beta stocks, so that its beta is
due to "chance," which is another way to describe tbtl rougbly zero. The returns to all such porcfolios tend to
mining, but they don't consider that plausible. because be highly correl.ted, so we don't have to worry .bout
the result appean in both halves of their period, and the details of the "right" way to cre.te the bet>. f.ctor.
becuse the ratio predicts.
firm's .ccounting perforThe empirical evidence that the bet>. factor had
extra returns is stronger than the corresponding
mance.
I consider both those argumenll; weak. Given
evidence for the small-stocle f.ctor or the boole-tothat an "effect" appean in full period, we expect to market equity f.ctor. The fitst evidence was published
find it in both h.lves of the period. We are not
in 1972, .nd the f.ctor has performed better since
surprised when we do.
public.tion than it did prior to public.tion.
We know th.t when markell; "'" somewhat elEMoreover, we have some theory for the bet>.
cient, stock prices rea.ct before accounting numbers to factor. Blacle [1972J showed th.t borrowing restricevents affecting a firm's performance. Thus we are noc tions might c.use low-bet.
stocks to have higher
surprised when firms with high ratios of book-toexpected returns than the CAPM predicll; (or the bet>.
market equity show poor subsequent accounting
factor to have a higher expected return than interest at
performance. I don't think this i! evidence of. priced
the short-term rate). BorroWing restrictions could
risk factor .t all.
include margin rules, banlcruptey Laws th.t limit lender
Thus I think it i! quite possible that even the access to a borrower's future income, and tax rules that
book-to-market
effect resulll; from dot>. mining, an\! limit deductions for interest expense.
will vonish in the future. But I ilia think it may result
These restrictions have prob.bly tightened in
in part from irntion:ol pricing. The ratio of book-tothe United States in recent decades. Margin rules h.ve
market equity may pick up divergence between value remained in effect, banlcruptcy Laws seem to have shiftand price .cross any of. number of dimensions. Thus
ed .gainst lendets, and deductions for interest expense
the past success of this ratio may be due more to have been tightened. Many countries outside the
market inefficiencies than "priced factOts" of the kind United St>.tes seem to have similar restrictions. If they
that Fama and French favor.
belp explain the past return on the beta factor, they
If the subsequent
convergence
of price .nd
will continue to influence ill; future return.
volue is gradu:ol, people seeking profit opportunities
Moreover, many investors who can borrow, and
m.y not fully eliminate the effect. To c.pture the who can deduct the interest they pay, an: nonetheless
gains, they have to spend money on .ctive manage- reluCtl.Ot to borrow. Those who want lOll; of market
ment, and they must bear the risks of. less-than-fuIIy
risk will bid up the prices of high-bet>. stocks. This
makes low-bet>. stocks .ttractive and high-bet>. stocks
diversified portfulio.
unattractive to investors who have low-risk porcfollo.
or who an: wiIIing to borrow.
BETA THEORY
We C.n see some evidence
for this in the
market's re.ctionto firm that changes ill; leverage. AJJ.
I think most of the Farm and French resulll; "'"
.tt:ribut>.ble to dot>. mining, especially when they reexexchange offer of debt for equity generally causes the
.mine "effects" that people h.ve discussed for ye.rs.
firm's .tock price to increase, while an offer of equity
Even they note that the ratio of boole-to-market equifor debt causes it to decrcse. 1)U.s may be because of
ty has long been cited as measure of the return
the taX .dvant>.ge5 of debt; or becuse more debt tranSfets volue from exi5ting bondholders to stocltholders;
prospects 9f stocks.
I especially .ttribute their resulll; to dot>. mining
or because bUying equity sign:olsmanager optimism.
10

BET/t,AHDR.ETlJP,.N

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous
Workpaper # 1
Page 4 of 11

I believe, though, that an import:lnt reason is


relucUnce to borrow: in effect, a firm that adds leverage is providing indirect borrowing for investon who
are unwilling to borrow direccly. These investors bid
up it>stock price.
B]S 11972] discuss anorher possible reason for
beta factor pricing:

mismeasurement

of the market

portfolio. If we use a market portfolio that differs


randomly from the true market portfolio, stocks that
seem to have low betas will on average have higher
bew when we use the correct market portfolio to estimate them .. Our betas are estimated with error (even
in the final portfolio), :and we sclecl stocks that seem
to have low bew. Such stocks will usually have positive alphas using the incorrect market portfolio. The
portfolio method does nOl eliminate this bias.
Perhaps !he most interesting way in which the
market portfolio

may be mismeasun:d involves our

neglect of foreign stocks. World capital markets are


becoming more integraled all the time. In a fully inlegrated capital ~rkct.

what counts is a stock's bet2

with the world market portfolio, not ilS beta wi!h the
issuer counny market portfolio. Thi.5 may C2USC, lowbeta stocks to seem consistently underpriced. If

investon can buy foreign stocks without penalty, they


should do so; if !hey cannOl, stocks with low bew on
their domestic market may partly substitute for foreign
stocks. If this is the reason !he line is flat, they may also
W::lntto emphasize slocks that liave high bew with the
world market portfolio.
Can 'c we do some tests on stock returns to sort

Out which of !hese theoretical facton is most imporUnt? I doubt that we have enough data to do that.
We have 101S of securities, but returns are highly
com:lated across securities. so these ohSCrv;ltiOlU are
far from independent. We have 101S of days, but to estimate faceor pricing what counts is the number of}'e2r5
for which we have data, not the number of distinct

observations. If !he factor prices are changing, even


many years is not enough. By the time we have a

While the BJS study covers 101S of ground, I am


especially fond of the "portfolio method" we used.
Nothing I have seen since 1972 leads me to believe
thot we can gain much by varying lhis method of analysis.
The portfolio method is simple and intuitive.
We try to simulate a portfolio Stralegythat an investor
can actually use. The strategy can use any data for
constructing the portfolio each year that are available
to investors at the start of that year. Thus we can
incorporate into our selec~on method any "crosssectional" effeclSthat we think are important.
However. the more complex our portfolio
selection method is, !he more we risk bringing in a

data mining bias. I must coafess that when we were


doing the original B]S study, we tried things that do
.not appear in the published article. Moreover, we were
reaeting.to prior work suggesting a relatively flat slope
for the line relating average return to beta. Thus our
article had element> of data mining too.
To minimize the d..ta mining problem, B]S
used a very simple pottfolio stralegy.We chose securities using historical

estimates of beta, and we used

many securities to diversify out !he faceon not related


to beta.
But this method does have flaws. For example,
beta is highly cortelated wi!h both total risk and residnal risk across stocks. So what we call the "beta factor"
might better be called the "total risk factOt" or !he
"residual risk factor." I can't think of any reliable way
to distinguish among these.
When doing the BJS study, we considered estimating the entire cO\'2riance matrix for our population
of scocks. and using that to improve the efficiency of
our test. We realizc:dthat this would requite us to deal
with uncei-tainty in our estimated covariances. We
decided that !he potential for improved efficiency was
small. while the potential for erIOr in our economettic

methods was large. So we did not punue that route.


Others have used different methods to update
average, it'will be priced in a diff,rent way.
Moreover, if we try to use stock returns to our study. My view is that in the presence of data
distinguish among these explanations, we run a heavy mining and estimate error :and changing risk premirisk of data mining. Test>designed to distinguish may ums, none of !hese methods adds enough accuney to
accidentally favor one explanation over :mother in a warrant ilS complexity. I view most of these methods
given period. I don't know how to begin designing as our method expressed in different language.
For example, Fama and MacBeth [1973] start
teslSthat escape the data mining trap.
with cross-sectional regressions of teturn on be~1 and
reasona.ble estimate

VARYING TIiE ANALYSIS

of how a factor was priced on

nlEJOURNAL

OF POIlTFOUO

MANAGEMENT

11

Docket No. P~3-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 1
Page 5 of 11

look at the time series of regression intercepts. The


time series is very similar to the BJS time series of

OVERALL
PORTFOLIO
RISK
LOWERED.

returns on the beta uctor. Stambaugh [1982] extends


the analysisthrough 1976, and considers broader possible definitions of the market portfolio, but finds similar
results. Lakonishok and Shapiro [1986] update the
analysis to 1981, and include firm size to help explain
average portfolio return. They conclude that the risk
measures were unrelated to average return in the peri-

od 1962-1981.
Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken [GRS, 1989]
contr.ilst their "multivariate" tests with e

series of

univariate tests thar they say B]S use. In fact, though,


the key test in B]S is the portfolio method wed to
construct the beta factor. This method implicitly
uses ill the cOv:lriances that GRS estimate explicidy.

The single B]S portfolio takes account of the covariances in a way that leaves relatively little scope for
data mining. Thus I feel our portfolio method has
about as much power as the GRS method, and may
have less bias.
Malkiel [1990, pp. 238-248J studies the relation
between beta and return for mutual funds in the 19801989 period. Stocks generally did well in this period,
so we'd expect high-beta funds to outperform lowbeta funds. But beta and fund performance seem utterly unrelated.
We can even interpret Haugen and Baker

(1991) as showing for the 1972-1989 period that


return and beta were not related as the CAPM leads w
to expect. They say the market portfolio is not efficient, but the way it's inefficient is that low-risk stocks
seem to have abnonnaIly high expected returns.
Kandel and Stambaugh [1989] give a general
mean-variance framework for likelihood ratio tests of
asset pricing models, taking account of estimate error
in both means and covariances, but assuming thar the
covariances are constant. In the real world, I doubt
that their method adds precision to the single portfolio
BJS test of the pricing of the beta factor.
Shanken [1992] has a comprehensive discwsion
of methods for estimating "beta-pricing models." He
discwses such problems as estimate error in beta when
wing methods like Fama and MacBeth's [1973]. For
some reason, he does not discuss the BJS and BlackScholes [1974] portfolio method. Black and Scholes
estimate beta for the final portfolio as they estimate
alpha. Thw I believe they avoid the bias due to estimate error in beta.
12

BETAANDRTlJRN

FALL I'"

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 1
Page 6 of 11

EXHIBIT

Number of Stocks in the S~ple

,Number
ofScocks

Year

Number
of Stocks

Year,

1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940

592
678
699
693
688
685
673
699
722
752

1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960

1008
1033

1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

754
767
782
784
783
798
820
847

1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970

1026
1034
1066
1089
1104
1128
1152
1152
1122
1126

900

934

954
979
1003
1011
1018
1009
1004
1010

Year

Number
ofS,ocks

1971
19'2
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

1182
1238
1286
1363
1429
1479
1484
1470
1466
1452

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

1435
1405
1394
1400
1380
1361
1329
1325
1340
1415
1505

MANAGED FUTURES ON
THE CHICAGO
MERCANTILE EXCHANGE.
Historicall>! commodity futures ond oplions

have hod

low correlation with stocks nnd

bonds. N~ by using managed


Chicaga

Mercantile

futures on the

Exchange,

institutional

of that rela-

investors can take advanta'ge

tionship 10 help smooth aul market fluctuatians


and lower """rail portfolia

risk. In the process,

the CME. Oearing House system virtually eliminates counterporty

risk

Whether your objectives are to minimize risk


or to profit from opportunities, the CMES wide

UPDATING TIm BLACKJENSEN-SCHOLES SnJDY


I want to illustrate thO',portfolio method by
updating the BJS [1972] study. I follow the BJS procedure closely, except that at the very end I adopt the
Black-Scholes
method of estimating portfolio beta,
alpha, and residual risk at the same time.
I use monthly data fiom the Center for R=h
in Security Prices at the University of Chicgo for the
period 1926-1991. The portfolio method is especially
weful when analyzing data over such a long period,
since the stocks in the portfolio are constantly changing.
'Even when the stocks don't change, the portfolio
method adapt> in part to changes in their cavariances.
I do not try to estimate changes in rt5idual risk
through time. In principle, this might let me improve
the cfliciency of the BJS "significance test>:' But the
Significance test> arc more seriously compromised by
data mining than by heterosceda.sticity, in my view. So
I stick to the we of an zvcrage rt5idual volatility for
the whole period to keep the method Simple .
I use New York StockExchange
listed stocks,
as BJS did. Exhibit 1 shoWl the number of stocks in
FAlL 1991

variety of interest rate, currenC)l

stock index and

agricultural conlracls offer a wide range of stralegie possibr1i1ies.fbssibitdies

that can open up

new avenues for asset allocation whne lowering

risk. Right now. Right here.


how by caIGng 1-800-33'1-3332 for

"""rail portforlO
Find out

our

Free, 112-page

Managed

Futures Reference

Guide for Ins1ituIionoIllIVe5IoIs.

HERE.
8EP

The Exchange of Ideas

ntEJ~o\L

OF PQR'Il'OUO

MANACEMENT

13

Docket No. P-034


Miscellaneous Work paper # 1
Page 7 of 11

EXHIBIT

MonthlyRegressions:\931 to 1965
BI.ck-]ensen-ScholesStudy
PortfolioNumber
[rem

I.p

\0

1.56

1.38

1.25

1.16

1.06

0.92

0.85

0.75

0.63

0.50

1.00

-0.0\

0.00

\0.01

0.0\

0.02

0.02

0.71

\.18

2.3\

1.87

2a

-0.0\

-0.02

3. t (a)

-0.43

-1.99

-0.76

-0.25

-0.89

0.79

p(R.Rml
5. P (e,. e,.d
6. a (eJ

0.96

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

1.98

0.99

0.98

0.96

0.90

0.05

-0.06

0.04

-0.0\

-0.07

-0.12

0.13

0.\0

0.04

0.\0

0.\4

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.08

7.1-'

0.26

0.2\

0.21

0.20

0.\7

0.\6

0.\5

0.\4

0.\3

0.11

0.\7

8.a

0.50

0.43

0.39

0.36

0.33

0.29

0.25

0.24

0.20

0.\7

0.3\

4.

-0.0\

0.00

Cum:nt Study
PortfolioNumber
Item

10

I.p

1.53

1.36

1.24

1.17

1.06

0.92

0.84

0.76

0.63

0.48

1.00

2.a

-0.02

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.03

3. t (a)

-0.78

-2.\2

-1.30

-0.54

-1.38

0.55

0.72

1.64

1.74

22\

0.97

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.98

0.98

0.96

0.90

0.05

-0.06

0.00

-0.13

-0.11

-0.07

0.10

0.06

0.11

0.15

0.12

0.06

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.07

7.1-'

0.26

0.22

0.21

0.21

0.18

0.11

0.16

0.15

0.13

0.12

0.18

8.a

0.49

0.43

0.39

0.37

0.33

0.29

0.27

0.24.

0.20

0.17

0.31

4.
5.
6.

p(R.Rml
P (e" e,-d
a(eJ

my sample for each year in six decades plus a year. only. Line 3 show> a standard statistical measure of the
Because CRSP has corrected the data since the BJS "significance" of the intercept (compared with zero).
study, the numbers differ slightly from the correspond- But the data mining we did (along with the hundreds
ing numbers in BJS.
of other people looliing at the >ame data) invalidates
Exhibit 2. panel 2. and Exhibit 5, line 2. repli-. the significance te5t. I interpret the numbers in line 3
cate the BJS results for the BJS period. The results are as roughly measuring the consistency of the positive
similar, but not identical. Most studies that followed intercept for low beta portfolios.
BJS emphasize the ten portfolios in Exhibit 2. But. the
Line 4 shows the correlation between portfolio
essence of the portfolio method lies in constructing a and market excess returns. while line 5 shows the estisingle pomolio (in this case, the beta factor) as in mated serial correlation of the residuals. Line 6 gives
the estimated sw1dard deviation of the residual. Lines
Exhibit 5.
In EXhibit 2, the fint two lin... how the "ope 7 and 8 give the sample mean and .tandard deviation
and intercept of a regression of portfolio excess return of portfolio excess return. Since means. correlations,
on an equally weighted market excess return. We and srandazd deviations are all changing, thC5eare estichose the equally weighted market portfolio rather mates of their averages through the period. Everything
is expressed in annual terms, though BJS gave their
than the value-weighted portfolio for convenience
14

BETA AND RETVRN

fAU It'Il3

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous
Workpaper # 1
Page 8 of 11

e
EXHIBIT 3
Monthly Regressions: 1931 through 1991
2

1.52

1.34

1.22

1.14

1.05

0.93

2.a

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.01

3. t (ll)

-2.34

-2.25

-1.54

-0.62

0.97

0.99

0.99

0.02

-0.04

0.11
0.17

1.13

p(R,Rm}

4.

5. P (c"
6. a

c,-tl

(c)

7. J!
8.a

Portfolio Number
6
7

{[em

0.43

10

0.85

0.76

0.64

0.49

1.00

om

.om

0.01

om

0.01

-1.41

1.03

I.S0

1.50

2.00

2.91

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.98

0.98

0.95

0.88

0.00

-0.08

-0.06

-0.03

0.05

0.05

0.10

0.13

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.17

0.16

0.14

0.14

0.13

0.11

0.11

0.10

0.09

0.14

0.29

. 0.29

0.25

0.23

0.23

0.18

0.18

0.27

0.37

0.33

figures in monthly terms.


Exhibit :3 gives simil.r results for the entire
period from 1926 through 1991. If .nything,
the
pattern looks stronger than it did for the 1926-1965
period. (But keep in mind that if it looked weaker, I
might not have written this .rticle.) Low-beta stocks
did better than the CAPM predicts, and high-beta
stocks did wone.
In fact. as Exhibit 4 shows, the results since
1965 have been very strong. Over the entire tw<:ntysix-year period, the nurl<et rose by normal amounts or
more, but low-bet.
portfolios did .bout as well as
high-beta portfolios. This is what F.ma and French
[1992] mean when they say the slope of the line relat-

ing .venge retum to beta is flat (though they usually


control for firm size).
Exhibit 5 shows the results for the beta f.ctor
c.lcul.ted
the way BjS did it. We took the excess
returns from the ten portfolios in Exhibits 2-4, .nd
weighted them by t - 13;, where 13; is the i'" portfolio's
beta. Thus we used positive weights on low~beta portfolios, and negative weights Oll high-beta portfolios. In
effect, the beta f.ctor is portfolio that is long in lowbeta stocks .nd short in high-beta stocks, with the
largest long positions in the lowest-beta stocks, and the
largest short positions in the highest-beta stocks.
Because low-beta stocks all tend to do well or
b.d1y .t the same time, and bec.use high-beta stocks

EXHIBIT 4
Monthly Regressions: 1966 through 1991
Portfolio Number
Item

10

1.11

1.50

1.30

1.17

1.09

1.03

0.95

0.87

0.78

0.67

0.51

1.00

2.a

0.00

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.01

om

0.03

-3.24

-0.93

-1.02

-0.24

-0.57

1.31

0.63

0.81

0.94

1.79

0.96

0.98

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.98

0.97

0.93

0.82

-0.02

-0.02

0.00

0.04

0.06

0.02

-0.03

-0.02

0.09

0.12

0.08

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.Q3

0.Q3

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.08

7. J!

0.06

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.07

0.07

0.07

0.06

0.08

8. (J

0.31

0.26

0.24

0.22

0.21

0.19

0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.20

3. t (a)
4.

p(R,Rm}

5. P (c"

6.

FAU

(J

(c)

It"

c,-t}

TIlEJOUIlNAL

OF I'OP.TI'OUQ

MANAGEMENT

15

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous
Workpaper # 1
Page 9 of 11

EXHIBITS
The Bctlo Factor

BJS
I.
2.
3.

I.

2.
3.
4.

5.
6.

Period

It.

0,

t(l1)

1131-12/65
1/31-12165
1131-12/91
1/66-12/91

0.04
0.05
0.05
0.06

0.15
0.15
0.14
0.13

1.62
1.93
2.94
2.44

Period

It.

0,

t(l1)

1131-12139
1/40-12/49
1150-12/59
1160-12/69
InO-I2n9
1/80-12/91

-0.07
0.06
0.10
0.06
0.02
0.14

0.22
0.15
0.07
O.M
0.14
0.12

-1.00
1.17
4.56
1.67
0.32
3.90

all tend to do badly when low-bel;l stocks are doing


well. this portfolio is not perfecdy diversified. It has
substantial v:ariance. That's why we call it the "beta
factor:
This portfolio captures the relative behavior of
stocks with different betas. Since stocks that diff"" in
beta also tend to differ in other ways, it combines the
effects of all the chac.cteristics
correlated with beta.
For e>ample, high-beta stocks tend to be stocks with
high return srand:ud deviati<>n. and issuers of high-beta
stock tend to be high-Ieverag. finns.
BJS did not, and I do not, ay to isolate these
characteristics. One reasOn is that it complicates the

EXHIBIT 6
The Beta Factor Using Only Prior lnfoa:n.ation

BJS
I.

2.
3.

I.

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
16

Period

It.

a,

1/31-12165
1131-12165
1131-12/91
1166-12/91

0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04

0.15
0.11
0.10
0.09

Period

It.

a.

t(lll

1131-12139
1140-12149
1150-12/59
1160-12169
lnO-12n9
1/80-12/91

-0.05
0.03
0.08
0.03
0.01
0.09

0.17
0.10
0.06
0.07
0.10
0.08

-0.94
1.06
4.25
1.32
0.18
3.90

BETA AND R.E1\JR.N

t(ll)
1.62
1.68
. 2.69
2.32

malysis. Another is that it invites data mining.


.Exhibit 5 summarizes the results in Exhibits 24, and divides them into approximate decades. We see
that the beta factor had a negative excess return only
in the first decade. Low-beta stocks did better after the
B1S study period than during it. They did best of all in
the most recent decade.
B1S, however, did not use a strict portfolio
method. They chose stocks for the ten portfolios using
only information that would have been av:ailable at the
time (about five prior years of monthly data to estimate beta). But the weights on the ten portfolios use
information that was not av:ailable.
Black and Scholes [1974] refine the portfolio
method to eliminate this possible source of bias. The
principle is simple. We select stocks and weight them
using only information that would have been av:ailable
at the time. This eliminates any bias, and generally
makes it easier to undcntmd and interpret the results.
Since we revise the portfulio over time, it lets us adapt
to changes in the stock list and in the cov:ariances.
The "multivariate" testing methods that such
researchers
as Kandel and Stambaugh
[19891 and
Shanken [1992] have explored do not have these
featwes. In effect, they require use of information on
cov:ariances that would not have been av:ailable to an
investor constructing a portfolio. And I find formal
statistical tests harder to interpret than a "portfolio
test."

Exhibit 6 shows the beta factor using a strict


portfolio test. We weight the ten portfolios using
year historical betas rather than the realized betas. This
takes out any bias due to we of unav:ailable information in creating portfolio weights. Then we regress the
portfolio excess return on the market excess return,
and figure the residual. This takes out any effects of
market moves because the portfolio beta is not exactly
uro. The story in Exhibit 6 is about the same as the
story in Ex!llbit 5.
Is this article, liIce so many others, just an exercise in data mining? Will low-beta stocks continue to
do well in the future, or will recognition of the pricing
of the beta factor cause so many investors to change
their strategies
that the effect is eliminated
(or
revened)? Me the effects of borrowing restrictions,
reluctance to bol'IOW,:md a minnea.sured market ponfolio strong enough to keep it alive? If the flat line
relating past return to beta steepens in the future, how
much will it steepen?

nve-

FAUI"]

Miscellaneous

Send me your predictions! ['ll record them, and


in future decades we can s~e how many were right.
My prediction is that the line will steepen, but that
low-beta stocks will continue to do berter than the
CAP M says they should.
CORPORATE

Suppose you believe that the line relating


expected return [0 beta will continue to be flat. or
flarter than the CAPM sugges13. What does that imply
for a firm's investment and financing policy?
On the surface, you might rhink that the line
for corporate investments will be flat or flatter too.
You might think a corporation should use a discount
rare when it evaluates proposed investmen13 that do",
not depend very much on the bew of i13 cash flows.
In effect, it should shift i13 asset mix toward high-risk
assets, because

FINANCE

its

investors

face borrowing

restrictions

or because they prefer high-risk investmen13.


But this conclusion would be wrong, because
corporations
can borrow so easily. They face fewer
borrowing restrictions than individuals. The beta of a
corpor.ltion's stock depends on both its asset beta and
i13leverage.
If the line is flat for investors, a corporation will
increase its stock price whenever it increases its lever
age. Exchanging debt or preferred for stock increases
leverage. even when the debt is~elow investmc:ntgrade. Now that the market for high-yield bonds is so
active, there is almost no limit to the amount ofleverage a cOrpOr:ltiOD can have. Some securities even let a
firm increase i13 leverage without significandy increasing the probability of bankruptcy.
If today's corporations do Dot face borrowing
restrictions, and if a corporation makes its in~tment
decisions to maximize i13 stock price. the market for
corporate assets should be governed by the ordinary
CAPM. A firm should use discount rates for i13investments that depend OD their betas in the usual way.
On the other hand, I think many corporations
act as if they do face borrowing
restrictions.
They
worry about an in~c
in ]c;venge that may cause a
downgrade from the rating agencies. and they carry
over the investor psychology that makes individuals
n:lucrant to borrow.
This may mean that corporate assets a.re priced
like common stocks. Low-bea assets may be underpriced, while high-beta assets are overpriced. The line
FAU I,,)

Docket No. P~3-4


Workpaper # 1
Page 10 of 11

relating expected return to beu for corporate assets


may be flatter than the CAPM predic13.
If so, then any corporation
that is free to
borrow and that wants to maximize its stock price
should again use the ordinary CAPM to value its
investmen13, and should use 1013of leverage. Low-beta
investrnen13 will look artractive because they have positive alphas. Thus the corporation will emphasize lowrisk asse13and high-risk liabilities.
Just like an investor who is free to borrow. a
rational corporation will emphasize low-beta asse13and
use lots of leverage. Even if the line is flat for both
investors and corpontioDS. beta. is an essential cool for
making investment decisions. Indeed. beta is more
useful if the line is flat than if it is as steep as the
CAPM prerlic13.
No marter what the slope of the line, a rational
corporation will evaluate an investment using the bew
of that investment's cash flows. It will not use the betas
of i'" other asse13 or the betas of i13liabilities.
Anriouncemen13 of the "death" of beta seem
premature. The evidence that promp13 such statements
implies more wes for bet::lthan ever. Rational investors
who can borrow freely, whether individuals or firms,
should continue to use the CAPM and beta to value
invesanen13 and to choose portfolio strategy.
ENDNOTE
The author is grate6.d EO Russell Abrmu andJexwhan Kelly
fOr help with the calculations; and to OilI'ord Asnas, J OM Bu, Wayne
Fmon.JoscfLakonishok.,
Richard Ron. B2IT RDienberg.Jay SfwIken.
and Myron Stholes for comments on prior dnfa.

REFERENCES
Bmz. Rolf. "The Relationship BetWeen Return and Market Values of
Common Stock. - J'.-J a]nn.no.I Em .......
9 (1981), pp. 3-18.
Black, FIScher. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Rcmic:tcd Borrow;"g. - J""'"'"'f Busi...... 4S auly, 1972). pp. #4-455.
Blac:k.. Fischer, Micha~1Jensen. and Myron Scholes. ""The Capital
Asset: Pricing Model: Some Empirical Tcsa. In Michael C. Jensen,
cd., SOld;.. in W 1lo<"'Y ofCopitol MmooJ. New Yorlc Pneger. 1972,
pp.79-121.

Black.. Fischer, and Myron Scholes. '"TIle EJfcca of" Dividend Yield
and Dividend Policy on Common Stock Prices md. Re:tums. ]ouma/.
ofFi ...
Em ..... "" I (May 1974), pp. 1-22.

..w

Fama, Eugene F.. and Kenneth R. French. '"The Cress-Section of


J.. ....J of R ...... 47 Quae 1992), pp. 4X1465.
Expected 5tock ReturnS. -

THEJOUIlNAl.

OF POll TRX.IO MANAGEMENT

17

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Work paper # 1
Page 11 of 11

Fanta. Eu~nc F. and James D. M.tcBeth. "Risk, Return. and Equilib


num: Empirical Tcsl:I." jounf(II of PoliliC41Ecollomy, 81 (May/June
1973). pp. 607-{,36.
Gibbons, Michael R., Stephen A. Rou, mdJay Shank-en. "A. Test of
the Efficiency
a Given Portfolio." Econolflr:tn'C4, 57 (September
1989). pp. 1121-1152.

or

H:lU~. RohCl't"A., ~d Nardin L Mer. "The Efficient Markel: Incf.


6ciency oC C3pit:l1i'&:lQon-Weigtu:ed Stock Ponfoliol." Jounud of Porrfolid MdrllJgmtf:nl., Spring 1991, pp. 35-40.
Kandel, Shmuel. and Raben
Fnmework
for Tesa of !wet
StuJ;".2 (1989). pp. 125-156.

F. Stambaugh. "A Mean~Variance


Pricing Models." lUvi~ of Finl"lcid/

18

BETA AND R1tJR.N

Malkid, Button G. A R.radOItl


W.W. Nonen 4: Co., 1990.

Wol.lc DoI/Ift W4I11 Stlttl.

New York:

Menon. Raben C. "On the Current SUte of the Stock Market


R.arionaliry Hypomesc:s." In Rudiger Domb\IJch, Stanley Fischer,
2nd john Bonons. eds . MaaQt!ono".ia and Firurta: EudrS in HOM,
".! F,o.~ Moditliani. Cambridge. MA: MIT PrCSl, 1987, pp. 93124.

Miller. Menan, and Myron Scholes. "R.aus of Rewm in Rc:b.tion to


Risk.: A Re.-aamination
of Some Recent: Findings.. " In Michael C.
jensen. cd . SluJies in rh~ Th~Dry D} Capildl Md,lcttS. New York:
PRegcr. 1972, pp. 47-78.

Lakonishok.. Josef, and Aim C. Shapiro. "Systematic Rjsk., Tow Risk


~d Size as Oer:erminana of Stocle Market Rerurru ... jOSlr1I1Ji #f &nJUlIl
"""fi......10 (1986), pp. 115-U2.
Lo, Andrew W . .and Cnig A. MacKinlay.
TelU of Financial
Asset Pricing Models."

StIlJi~s.10 (1990). pp. 431-467.

"D.au Snooping in
Revi~UI of Finallcidl

Shanken.J2.Y. "On the: &tim.uion ofBct:l-Pricing


Fi.. ndJ SI..Jia. 5 (1992), pp. 1-33.

Mode-b.... R.ttriew oj

Sgmhaugh. Robert F. "On die Exclusion of ASSCb&om Tcsa of die


Two-Parameter
Modd: A Sensitivity Analysis." jouruJ. ~ nll4l1i(J/
Eamomits. 10 (November 1982), pp. 237-268.

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 2
Page 1 of 1

II-I

BETA (FIELD 238)


The Value Line Beta is a standard measure of price volatility. Generally, Bela is calculated using one of two
methodologies. Value Line Beta's are calculaled using the New York Slack Exchange Composite as the "markel"
proxy, (259 observations) and is derived from a least-squares regression analysis between weekly percent changes in
the price of a slock and weekly percent changes In the New York Slock Exchange Composile Index over a period of
five years. AII prices are adjusted for stock splits and stock dividends. Cash dividends are nol included in the
calculalions. For example, a Bela of 1.50 would indicate Ihat a stock has hislorically lended to rise (or fall) 50%
more Ihan lhe slock marlt as a whole. In Iheory, Ihis relationship should persist in future periods. Theory and
practice are not necessarily identical, however, and many questions remain about the ability of historical Betas 10
predict subsequent slock price changes relalive 10 the markel. Users may wish 10 refer 10 "A Comparison of
Published Belos," Reilly & Wrighl, Journal ofPonfolio Management. Spring 1988.
There has been a Iendency over the years for high Beta stocks 10 become lower and for low Beta stocks to become
higher. This lendency was measured by studying Ihe Betas of stocks in consecutive five-year intervals. The Value
Line Betas are adjusted for this tendency, by the formula: adjusled Bela ~ .35 + .67 calculated Beta.
Value Line uses the New York Slock Exchange Composile, which is used as the measure of the general market. The
New York Stock Exchange Composite is used as a basis for calculating Bcta, because this index is a good proxy for
the complete equity ponfolio. Since Beta's significance. derives from its usefulness in ponfolios rather than
individual slocks, il is best constructed by relating to an overall market ponfolio. Betas are suitable as measures of
portfolio risk since the non-market risks of stocks in a diversified portfolio often cancel one another out. The
Standard Deviation is a bener measure of the risk of holding a single stock.

BETA'S R FACTOR (FIELD 248\


This is the coefficient

of correlation for the Beta. It describes the percentage of a stock's variability that may be

attribuled to systematic (i.e., market) risk.The average R is about .50.


STANDARD DEVIA nON

!FIELD 2391

The Standard Deviation is a measure ~f the total volatility or risk in a stock includi~g both market sensitivity and a
Stock's inherent instability.
ALPHA (FIELD 23TI
The average number of basis points per week by which the slock has outperformed, on a price basis, (or in the case
of a negative number, underperformed) the New York Stock Exchange Composite Average over the past five ye8lS.
It is derived from a least-squares regression analysis between weekly percentage changes in the price of the stock and
.weekly percentage changes in the NYSE Composite Average. Stocks with a price history of less than five years will
have an alpha calculated only if there are at least 100 weeks of price data available.
Alpha is the pan of a stock's total return that cannot be explained by Beta. Both Alpha and Beta are totally price
driven in that financial fundamentals are not taken into account.

..,

Value Line DataBase Manual

Copyright 1998, Value Line Publishing Inc.

Docket No. P~3-4


Miscellaneous Work paper # 3
Page 1 of 15

Exhibit No. __
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
BEFORE THE
FEDERAL ENERGY REGUlA TORY COMMISSION
Northern Natural G .. Compony

l/PW-ll

Docket No. RP95-185-000

PREPARED DIRECT TESTIMONY


OF
J. PETER WllUAMSON
ON BEHALF OF
NORTHERN NATURAL GAS COMPANY

Q.

Please slate your name and business address.

A.

My name is

J.

Business Administration,
Q.

What is your occupation?

A.

I am the laurence
addition.

and my business address is the Amos Tuck School of

Peter Williamson,

Dartmouth

F. Whittemore

I act as a consultant

College, Hanover, New Hampshire

03755.

Professor of Finance at the AmOs Tuck School.

to various organizations,

both business corporations

nonprofit institutions, on matters pertaining to corporate finance and investments.

In
and

In 1990,

I completed a twelve year term as a Trustee of the COl1UTlCI1


Fund. which manages the
investments of nonprofit educational institutions.
Q.

What is your educational and professional background'

A.

I graduated from the University of Toronto with a B.A. degree.


the Harvard Business School. an LL.B. from the Harvard
business administration

(D.B.A.) from the Harvard

was in finance and specifically

I received an M.B.A. from

Law School. and a doctorate in

Business School.

in the area of securities markets.

and professional experience are set forth

(J"\

My doctoral work

My teaching, research

pages 1 through 5 of Exhibit No. __

(JPW-

2).
Q.

VVhatis the purpose of your testimony in this case?

A.

I have been asked to determine


Northern Nahlral Gas Company

the appropriate

range for the cost of a::mmon equity for

("Northern" or "the Company").

JPW 000271

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Work paper # 3
Page 2 of 15

Q.

to be the criteria for establishment

A.

The Supreme Court has established

in Bluefield

the criteria

Waltr

Works

to. P5C. 262

U.S. 679,692-93 (1923), and FPC v. H"Pe Natural

utility must be allowed a rate of return commensurate

with returns en investments

in other

enterprises

assures confidence

utility's

financial integrity and one that maintains its credit and enables it to attract capital.

having

corresponding

Gas Co., 320 U.s: 591.605 (1944). The

risks, me that

of the required rate of return

on common equity for a regulated utility?

2
3

What do you understand

in the

SUIIUIIU}'

Q.

Please summarize your testimony.

10

A.

My overall approach to determining

the appropriate

range of return en o::mmm equity for

11

Northern

12

general.

13

Northern

14

Pipeline Company, which is in turn whoUy-owned by Enron Corp.

15

was to determine
It is impossible

to determine

has no stock that

In determining

the required return en anm .... equity

is publicly

directly

for gas pipelines

the cost of equity for Northern

traded:

Northern

is wholly-owned

the cost .of canmen equity for gas pipelines

16

different methods.

17

Hope and Bluefield method; and the Risk Premium Method.

in general.

in

because
by fmal

[ used three

The three were: the Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF method); the

18

Q.

Why did you use these three methods?

19

A.

No single method offers a completely reliable determination

of the cost of canmm equity.

20

Furthermore,

21

is important not to rely always on a single method, but to use several methods and compare

22

their results. The DCF method has been used for many years for determination

23

of common equity for gas pipelines in Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) cases,

24

and under certain circumstances

is a reliable

25

based en standards

by the United States Supreme Court in the Hope

26

Bluefield cases on the determination

from lime to time one method may become more reliable

established

tool.

than the others.

The Hope and Bluefield

of cost of comm<n equity.

It

of the cost

method

The risk-premium

is
and

method

JPW 000272
2

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous
Workpaper # 3
Page 3 of 15

reflects the well-established


2

from high-risk investments than they do from low-risk investments.


Q.

Please describe your use of the three methods.

A.

I began with the OCF method and applied it to seven publicly traded diversified

gas companies representative

dividend

estimates of growth, examining three sources of earnings growth forecasts.

analysts'

also the analysts'

yields

of the gas pipeline

for the seven companies.

industry.

First,

projections reported by the Institutional

forward-looking
I reviewed

Earnings Estimator,

in TM Value Line Investment

then considered forecasts published

11

analyses

12

diversified natural gas companies is in the range 15.50"10 to 16.25"10.


method

14

determining the growth rate g to be used in the OCF method.

15

there appears to be a requirement that witnesses use this method.

16

investors use this method are pure speculation.

17

method

18

evidence that the investment community agrees with them.

19

what appear to be the new Commission requirements, I undertook a OCF analysis

20

use of two stages of growth.

21

range I had arrived at, to 15.25"10to 16.25"10.

entirely

m their

and

figure for the cost of a:mmm equity for the

that an appropriate

relied

the

Survey. These DCF

In recent decisions the FERC has suggested the use of a "two-stage"

have

the

Brokers Estimate System (IBES), and

projections reported in the Zacks Corporate

indicated

natural

I determined

Then I turned to strictly

10

22

expected rates of return

13

fact that investors demand higher

for

In one of those decisions

I believe claims tha t

Staff witnesses who have supported the

own personal opinions and have

The results of this analysis

I next used what I called the Hope and BluefIeld

presented

ro

However. to comply with


making

led me to extend downward the

Comparison Method. which is based

23

upon the criteria enunciated by the US Supreme Court in the Hope and Bluefield

24

Consistent with those two decisions. I determined

25

generally and adjusted this cost lor relative risk to arrive at the cost 01 equity lor natural

26

gas companies.

27

yield

cases.

the cost of o:mmm equity lor stocks

Specifically, I reviewed weekly Value Line determinations of the median

and median

appreciation

potential

lor the set 01 apprOXimately

1700 stocks

JPW 000273
3

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 4 of 15

followed by Value Line analysts.

estimate

01

the cost 01 a:mmm equity for unregulated companies in general is 16% to 17%.

performed risk comparisons between a:mmm stocks generally

company stocks, to conclude that gas pipeline stocks are at present perceived by investors

to be at least as risky as stocks in general.

become so risky, I reviewed the recent history of the gas pipeline

and opinions, court decisions and opinions in the investment

analysis indicated that the cost of common equity lor diversified natural

approximately

In explaining

and diversilied

I then

natural

why gas pipeline

gas

stocks ha "e

industry, FERC actions

community.

This second

gas companies is

16% to 17%.

Finally, I used a risk-premium

method.

First, I examined differences in actual long-run

11

rates of return between common stocks and US. government bonds.

12

differences between rates of return on gas company stocks and income rates 01 return m U.S.

13

government bonds. I concluded that the premiums over long-term U.s. government bonds lor

14

gas company stocks were greater than the premiums for common stocks generally.

15

gas company stock premium was higher

16

was consistent with the evi~ence I referred to above that diversified

17

stocks are perceived at present to be at least as risky as stocks in general and perhaps

18

risky.

19

15.25% to 16.25% cost 01

20

implied risk premiums.

21

yields

22

general. I concluded that the results 01 this risk premium analysis called for a reduction in

23

the 15.25% to 16.25% range I had deduced from the DCF method, to 14.75% to 15.75%.

24

that a conservative

10

These data indicated

than the premium lor

I then examined U.S. government bad yields,

Q"\

tUmIrlCCl

I specifically

<anmal

subtracted

That the

stocks in general

natural gas company

these yields

equity range given by the DCF method

I also added the historical risk premium

analyzed

more

from the

to arrive

at

lor commm stocks to the

U.S. goverrunent bonds, to arrive at a measure of the cost of equity to stocks in

Combining the conclusions lor the three

25

expressed prelerence lor primary

26

conclusion that a detennination

27

in the range 14.75% to 15.75%.

reliance

methods.

and bearing in mind the FERCs

m the DCF method.

I reached

of the cost of COmmon equity for gas pipelines

the overall
in general is

JPW000274
4

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 5 of 15

Vermont Public Service Board

Docket

3
4

No.

6101

June 29,

1998

Page 1 of

3S

5
6
7

TES'rI:MONY
OF
J. PETER WILLIAMSON
ON BEHALF OF
GREEN MOUNTAIN POWER CORPORATION

9
10
11
12

13

1.

14

Q.

Please state your name and business address.

A.

My name
is

is J.
17

Peter Williamson,

15

address

1/2

Lebanon

16

Hanover, New Hampshire

and my business

Street,

P.O.

Box

5160,

03755.

17

18

19

2.

Q.

What is your occupation?

A.

am

the

Laurence

F.

Whittemore

Professor

at the Amos Tuck Graduate

of

20

Finance Emeritus

21

Business,

22

teaching in 1996,

23

various

24

nonprofit

25

corporate finance

26

two non-profit organizations

27

for supervising

28

both.

29

term as aTrustee of the Common Fund, which manages

30

several

31

educational institutions.

32

expert witness on the subjects of capital structure and

33

cost

Dartmouth

Having

College.

School

retired

from

I act full time as a consultant

organizations,

both business
on

institutions,

matters

and investments.

the

of

to

corporations

and

pertaining

to

I am a trustee

of

and am chiefly responsible

investments

of the endowments

of

In the Fall of 1990, I completed a twelve year

billion

of

dollars

capital

of

since

investments

of

the

nonprofit

I have been testifying as an

1974

in

various

state

JPW 006468

Docket No. P"{)3-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 6 of 15

Vermon~ Public Service Board


Docket No. 6107

Witness:

proceedings,

Federal Energy Regulatory

and

since

1981 in proceedings

Willi~on

June 29. 1998


Page ::l of 35

..

before

the

Commission.

3
4

3.

is

your

educational

and

professional

background?

5
6

What

Q.

A.

I graduated

B.A.

degree.

Business

and

from

the University

I received

School,

an LL.B.

doctorate

10

from the Harvard

11

in finance

12

markets.

13

experience

and

an M.B.A.

in

administration

School.

specifically

My

from the

Harvard

from the Harvard Law School,

business

Business

of Toronto with a

teaching,

~D.B.A.)

My doctoral work was

in the area of securities


research

and

professional

are set forth in Exh. JPW-l.

14
15
16

4.

Q.

~t

A.

Green

is the purpose
Mountain

17

Company) has asked

18

in Docket

19

equity

20

request

21

testimony

22

attached it. as

23

present testimony

24

the earlier

No.

for

Power

5983 with

Board

in that

Corporation

(GMP,

or

the

me to bring up to date my testimony

the Company

the

of your testimony?

to

and

to the cost of common

its capital

incorporate

docket

Exhibit

respect

structure.

my direct,

prefiled

into this docket, and


JPW-2.

I shall

rely

on some lengthy.explanations

I have
in the

given in

testimony.

25
JPW 006469

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 7 of 15

V.rmont

Public Service Board


Docket No. 6107

Wi~ess: Williamson
"June

Pag.

5.

do

you

understand

to be

determination. of the required

equity for a regulated


A.

the

criteria

rate of return on common

The criteria were set out in Bluefield


262 U.S.

679,

692-93

v. PSC,

Natural Gas Co., 320 U.S. 591,

must

returns

corresponding

be

allowed
on

for

utility?

rate

(1923),

Water Works

and FPC

605 (1944).

of

investments

return

in

other

v. Hope

The utility

commensurate
enterprises

with
having

risks, one that assures confidence' in the

10

utility's

11

its credit and enables

financial

integrity

and

one

that

maintains

it to attract capital.

12
13

Summary

14

6.

16

Please

Q.

15

What

Q.

29, 1998
3 ot: 3S

summarize

your

of capi~al and capital

determination

is listed

18

examination

19-

gives

20

equity.

21

a determination

22

company, and by reviewing

data

23

companies

some

24

individual companies

on the New

more

York

traded company

17

of a set

guide

This is because

one

the

can

Stock

Exchange),

of comparable

reliable

of

cost

structure.

While GMP is a publicly

A.

of GMP's

expect

to

electric
the

cost

(its stock
I believe
utilities
of

common

there -is always some error


cost

of

capital

of

in

single

for a set of comparable


of

the

errors

for

the

to cancel.

JPW 006470

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 8 of 15

Vermont ~llc

Service Board

Docket No. 6101


~itnes5: Williamson
June '29. 1998
Page

In

concluded that

drawn from the

bond ratings

to GMPin risk

reports

risks

of stranded

the

a set

of ten

northeast

to

5983,

including

States

and

I presented

agencies

U. S. northeast,
costs

in
of

11

rated

GMP.

carrying

12

Baa2 by Moody's

13

direct

14

out

15

electric

16

for GMPwere likely

the

testimony

in

unique

ratings

utilities

recent

lowering

19

access

to funding.

20

set

21

dropping

22

updated

23

arrive

24

set.

at a new cost
The companies

an

& Poor's

(S&P) and

risks

that

my

filed

and
I also

facing

in my present

pointed

the

Vermont

the bond ratings

testimony

that

its
of

used

in

rating
those

listed

on the

Docket

companies

in

very

limited

No.

has moved to

of cornmonequity
are

the

and its

However, I have relied

one because
my analysis

explained

GMPwas

of GMP's bond ratings

companies

risks

to be lowered.

discuss

18

the

utility",

Docket No. 5983.

and suggested

the

establishing

in

prepared

time

regulatory

stressed

And I

by Standards

at

a number of

in particular

an electric

for

BBB+ negative

that

restructurings.
bond

risk measure

of

United

rating

overall

I shall

Docket No.

companies,

investors,

the

importance

the

in

JS

of BBBand BBB+.were the most comparable

from
of the

testimony

10

17

my direct

C of

in

for the

same
5983.

A-.

order

to

composite

Exh. JPW-3, page 1.

25

JPW006471

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 9 of15

Vermont Public Servi~eBoard


Docket No. 6101
Witness:
Williamson
June 29. 199B
hill! S of 35

7 .

Is it not true that after. you prepared your direct

testimony

of

utilities,

GMP was initially

explain these new ratings and their significance?

in pocket

new

A.

Q.

senior

'corporate

measure

5983, S&P introduced

secured

debt

ratings

a series

for

electric

and that the senior secured debt rating

Yes,

No.

the

A-, recently reduced to BBB?

new

ratings

credit

ratings,'

of the likelihood

10

other financial

11

of the probable

12

debt.

13

This is the measure

14

Its initial

15

to BBB ,-.indicates

16

prospects

17

recover

18

are a little

19

might indicate.

GMP

recovery
a

not

which

Can you

replace
are

the

old

intended

as

of a company's bankruptcy

difficulty,

has

do

for

but provide

to holders

corporate

rating

of the likelihood

or

a new measure

of fully

credit

secured
of

BBB-.

of bankruptcy.

A- first mortgage bond rating, now reduced

for

their

that in the event of bankruptcy

the

first

investment
better

mortgage

bond

in full, through

than the corporate

holders

the
to

foreclosure,

credit

quality

full

recovery

20
21

Q.

What

characteristics

22

for

23

bankruptcy?

24

8.

25

A.

first

The
large

mortgage

bondholders,

first mortgage

proportion

of

of GMP

bonds
the

favor
in

the

event

of GMP do not make

total

indebtedness,

of

up a
when

JPW006472

Docket No. P~3-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 10 of 15

Vermont Public Service Board


Docket

No.

6107

Witness:
Williamson
June :29. 1998
Pilge 6 of JS

purchased

power

indebtedness,
includes
and

very

no

obligations

and

the

little

in

nuclear

composed

and

therefore
credit

9.

of

A.
for

have

the

set

and the-cost

Q.

the

the

assets,
extent

Vermont Yankee)
and
The

although

bonds

of

but

is

distribution
collateral
the

is

corporate

impressive.

have you reached

with

respect

to

concluded
of

that

companies

for

GMPis

the
is

cost

of

in the

common equity

range

considerably

11% to

12%,

higher.

Methodo1o~
. How did

equity
A.

to

that

of Commonequity?

Cost of Capital

in

quality,

What conclusion

Q.

(except

buildings.

is not

in

behind

transmission

office
high

rating

GMP's cost

10.

of

included

the way of generation

interest

chiefly

facilities

security

generation

GMP's stockholder

are

you go about updating

for your set

of representative

began

the

explained

with

that

coefficients
Survey

(Value

coefficients

For risk

published
Line)
myself.

cost

of

common

companies?

CAPM/Risk Premium method.

methodology

Docket No. 5983 ..

the

by
and

in

my direct

measures,

The.

also
beta

in

I made use of beta

The Value
I

testimony

Line

Investment

calculated
coefficients

JPW006473

beta
I

Docket No. P~3-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 11 of15

Vermont

Public Service Board


Docket No. no?

Wi~ess:

~illlamson

June 29. InB


Page 1 of JS

calculated

coefficients,. except for the GMP beta.

the

significant.

risk-free

U.S. government

risk premium published

Yearbook.

equity for the set of companies is close to 12%:

10

were

companies

reasonably

except

GMP,

I combined

rate

by

method

indicated

application

of

were

reasonably

on

13

the

14

cornmon stocks

15

combined

16

arrive at costs of cornmon equity.

17

Value Line reports

18

returns

19

return) and other statistics

20

the companies

21

future returns

22

prices.

23

was forecasted

at under

24

the companies

themselves

the

yields
of

DCF

with a

long-term

yields

to

investors

representative
with

expected

to

growth

Premium
I

expected

at

on

the
I
to
the

stockholder
rates

an opinion

of
that

unsatisfactory

their present
to

forecasted

stock

stockholders

4%, and the average


was

I used

rates

company

return

also

examined

of future

reflecting

to stockholders

of

companies.

I also

expected

1998

cost

method

in my set offer entirely

average

equity

in Docket No. 5983.

for forecasts

opposed

the

CAPM/Risk

method,

available

the

that

the

explained in my testimony

The

for all of

in the Ibbotson Associates'

12

(as

Line

bonds, and with the most recent

applied

the

Value

And

the yield

method,

dividend

the

the beta coefficients

11

to

the betas

represented

This

Following

close

at

return
just

to

over

JPW006474

Docket No. P~3-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3

r~n}:f15

DIRECT TESTIMONY OF

J.

PETER Wll.UAMSON,

D.B.A

ON BEHALF OF
EMPIRE STATE PIPELINE COMPANY
PSC CASE NO. __

JPW004706

Docket No. P~3-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 13 of 15

Case No. __

Q.

Please state your name and business address.

A.

My name is]. Pet~.r Williamson. and my business address is P.O. Box 5160. Hanover.

N.H.

03755.

Q.

VVhat is your occupation?

A.

I am the La1.lIeI\ce F. \'Vhittemore" Professor of Finance, Emeritus, at the Amos Tuck School

of Business Administration,

act as a consultant

instih.Jtions,

Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire.

In addition, I

to various organizations. both business corporations

en matters

pertaining

to corporate finance

and nonprofit

completed a twelve year term as a Trustee of the CoIruron Fund, which

11

investments of nonprofit educational institutions.

12

Q.

\'\'hat is your educational

13

A.

I graduated

of Toronto with a B.A. degree.

14

the Harvard

15

business administration

16

.was in finan~e and specifically in the area of securities mukets.


Q.

manages

School. an LL.B. from the Harvard

(D.B.A.) from the Harvard

I received

Law School,

Business School.

an M.B.A.

from
in

and a doctorate

My doctoral

work

I show you Exhibit-No. 21 (jPW-l), entitled "Empire State Pipeline - Teaching. Research

16

and I'rofessional Experience of J. Peter Williamson." Was this exhibit prepared

19

under your supervision

by you or

and direction?

20

A.

Yes, it was.

21

Q.

Please describe

22

A.

This exhibit. consisting of five pages, swrunarizes

this exlu"bit.

23

academic positions

24

reguatory proceedings.

held, consulting

my professional

activities, publications,

25

Q.

VVhat is the pmpose: of your testimony in this case?

26

A.

I have been asked

27

the

and professional background?

from the University


Busmess

In 1990, I

and investments.

10

17

Page 1 of39

J. Peter Williamson

to determine the cost of

CIXnI11al

experience.

and experience

equity capital

including

as a witness

for Empire

in

Sta te

.Pipeline (Empire).

JPW 004707

Docket No. P-03-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 14 of 15

Case No. __

Q.

2
3

J.

Peter Williamson

What do you understand to be the oiteri. for establishment of the required rale of return
on common equity for a regulated utility?

A.

The Supreme C~

has established

u.s.

utility must be allowed

enterprises

financial inte~ty

the criteria in Blutjitld

679, 692-93 (1923), and'FPC v. Hapt Notu,.!

haVing

a rate of return

corresponding

commensurate

risks,

and one that maintains

Q.

\\'hat

A.

I used three methodologies

methodologies

Go, Co., 320 U.S. 591, 605 (1944). The

with returns

Ql

investments

in other

assures confidence in the utility's

its credit and enables it to attract capital.

I have found appropriate

that

common equity for a natural gas pipeline.

11

gas pipeline

12

pipelines

13

companies.

10 be

differ

one that

Woftr Works v. PSC, 262

did you use to make your determination?

10

for determining

the cost of

Empire, as.! understand ii, is the firsl natural

regulaled by the New York Public Service Couunission. Natural gas

in important

14

Q.

Please discuss those differences.

15

A.

A great many electric

characteristics

and gas dist::i1bution

16

subsidiaries of holding companie~.

17

are owned by parent companies thai

18

analysis of gas pipeline

19

companies.

20

the case of electric and gas distribution

21

Page 20'.39

from most electric

companies

are publicly

gas distribution

and

owned

and are not

With few. exceptions, natural gas pipeline companies


engage in number of

companies depends heavily,

activities.

business

therefore,

at

The

the use of proxy

And there are many fewer suitable proxy pipeline companies than there are in

Gas pipeline

companies

companies.

are in general considerably

more risky

than either

22

electric or gas distribution companies. I shall discuss the beta coefficients (these are risk

23

measures) for the proxy companies I have used in this proceeding. The average is close to

24

1.00, the beta coefficient

25

the other hand, the average beta coefficienl (from the IIlDSIrecent Value Line reports) is

26

about 0.68, and that for gas distribution companies is aboul 0.59. The bc<d ratings for the

for the market

as a whole.

For electric distribution

companies, en

JPW004708

"

:~ .. .... ~~_.

Docket No. P~3-4


Miscellaneous Workpaper # 3
Page 15 of 15

Case No.

). Peter Williamson

gas pipeline

I shall discuss the risk characteristics of gas pipelines, and of Empire in


particular,

later in my test:irii.ony.

Q.

Please continue.

A.

My first methodology

was the DiscoWlted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

favored by most regulatory

gas pipelines.

used in conjWlction with other methods.

The DCF is

.gencies. including the FERC. which regulates most natural

It is far from an infallible

method. but I believe is reli.ble

enough to be

I aiso used what I have termed the Hop. and Blu<fi<ld method. because it is

10
11

based

12

compete successfully with unregulated

13

Hope and Bluefield

14

which a natural gas pipeline must compete. Finally, I have used a risk premium ICapital

15

Asset Pricing Model method.

16

premium method more than either of the others in making investment

17

preIDiUIIl

18

pipeline to the obs~able

19

risk perceived in the stock of a pipeline.

20
21
22

proxy companies are generally lower than the bc:nd ratings for electric and

gas distribution companies.

Page 3 of 39

CIl

the proposition

that a regulated

method determines

method relates

utility

must be accorded

an opportunity

companies in the marketplace


the competitive

The inv~t

for capital.

rate of rehlm standard

cmnmunity, in my experience,

the rate of return required to attract

to

My

against

uses the risk

decisions. The risk

capital

to a natw:al

gas

returns aviillable: on US. government bonds, as a function of the

I do not believe it is appropriate

to rely exclusively

and I have made a practice of regularly applying

e:m any

single methodology,

an three.

My overall approach to determining the appropriate

return al rmallal

equity

23

for Empire was to determine the required return on common equity for publicly held natural

24

gas pipeline companies (those with major gas pipeline companies as subsidiaries.

25

than those emphasizing gas distribution).

26

equity for Empire. It is impossible to deterrnin< directly the cost of equity for Empire, uSing

27

a market-based

methodology

rather

and then to use this cost to determine the cost of

such as the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

JPW 004709

S-ar putea să vă placă și