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MEDIA

RELEASE
(September 28, 2015)
FROM:

Ronald D. Holmes
President
Pulse Asia Research, Inc.

RE:

Pulse Asia Researchs September 2015 Nationwide Survey on


the May 2016 Elections

Pulse Asia Research, Inc. is pleased to share with you some findings on the May
2016 Elections from the September 2015 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to
assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.
The survey fieldwork was conducted from September 8 14, 2015 using face-to-face
interviews. Some of the key developments which took place in the weeks immediately
prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey are:
(1) The official endorsement by President Benigno S. Aquino III of Department of
Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Manuel A. Roxas II as the
standard bearer of the Liberal Party (LP) for the May 2016 elections; the DILG
Secretarys search for a running mate; and the LPs declaration that it would
embark on a positive electoral campaign which will not involve black
propaganda, dirty tricks, and political mudslinging;
(2) The convening of the Supreme Court (SC) as the Presidential Electoral Tribunal
(PET) for the purpose of resolving pending cases related to the May 2010 and May
2013 elections among which are the electoral protest filed by DILG Secretary Roxas
against Vice-President Binay in the May 2010 vice-presidential contest, with SC
Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno saying the PET will expedite the resolution of
these cases in preparation for the expected filing of new cases in connection with
the May 2016 elections;
(3) The disqualification case filed against Senator Grace Poe before the Senate Electoral
Tribunal (SET) which questions her citizenship and residency in the Philippines;
the SETs directive to the Bureau of Immigration (BI) and the National Statistics
Office (NSO) to produce the lawmakers citizenship and birth records as it embarks
on its investigation into the matter; and the SETs decision during its 11 September
2015 hearing to drop the question of residency against Senator Poe which now
shifts the focus on the question of her citizenship;

(4) Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Dutertes announcement made on 07 September 2015
that he will not be running for president in May 2016 in light of his plans to retire
from politics next year but despite this, the Davao City Mayors supporters and
advocates of federalism are still hopeful that he will reconsider his decision before
the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy on 16 October 2015;
(5) The decision of the Commission on Election (COMELEC) to lease 93,977 all-new
optical mark recorded (OMR) machines from Smartmatic-Total Information
Management (TIM), a move which COMELEC Chairperson Andres Bautista
referred to as the most viable, practical, and safest option to ensure credible
elections in May 2016, and the signing of a P 1.72B contract between the COMELEC
and Smartmatic-TIM on 28 August 2015 for the supply of 23,000 OMR machines;
(6) Vice-President Jejomar C. Binays True State of the Nation Address (TSONA)
delivered on 03 August 2015 wherein he called President Aquinos tuwid na daan
a failure since the number of poor, hungry, and jobless Filipinos increased under
the incumbent administration;
(7) The rally staged by Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) members along EDSA beginning 27
August 2015 to protest what it referred to as the Department of Justices (DOJ)
meddling in the churchs internal affairs by investigating the illegal detention case
filed by a former INC minister against the church, with the rally ending after five
days amidst rumors of a deal being struck between the INC and the national
administration which reportedly included the sacking of DOJ Secretary Leila M. de
lima and the dropping of the illegal detention charges against the INC;
Malacaangs denial of any deal being made between the government and the INC;
and DOJ Secretary de Limas clarification that she is not stepping down and that,
contrary to rumors, the DOJ will proceed with the preliminary investigation into
the illegal detention case against the INC;
(8) The filing of charges by the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) against a third
batch of former and current lawmakers including Senator Gregorio Honasan and
Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) Director General
Emmanuel Villanueva in connection with the alleged misuse of their Priority
Development Assistance Fund (PDAF);
(9) The filing of another case of malversation of public funds before the Office of the
Ombudsman against 20 current and former lawmakers in connection with the
alleged misuse of their PDAF allocations amounting to P 500M which reportedly
went to 15 dubious non-governmental organizations (NGOs) from 2007 to 2009,
with incumbent Senators Juan Ponce Enrile and Ramon Revilla, Jr. and former
Senator Edgardo Angara being among those included as defendants in the case,
and the reported involvement of four former and current officials of the
Commission on Audit (COA) in the scam;
(10) The signing by 17 senators of the report on the substitute Bangsamoro Basic Law
(BBL) by the Senate Committee on Local Government and the sponsorship speech
of Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. wherein he emphasized that the Senates version
of the BBL is constitutional and would ensure that the powers of the national
government enshrined in the 1987 Philippine Constitution will be preserved; the
2

lack of a quorum in the House of Representatives (HOR) during the period of


interpellation of the draft BBL which led House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte, Jr. to
express concern about the possibility of the Lower House being unable to meet its
deadline of 15 September 2015 to pass the bill and transmit it to the Senate; and
President Aquinos expression of optimism that the BBL will be passed by Congress
despite various challenges it has encountered;
(11) President Aquinos remarks made during a media forum as regards an alternative
truth concerning the Mamasapano encounter in January 2015 which resulted in
the death of 44 members of the Philippine National Police-Special Action Force
(PNP-SAF); Senator Poes willingness to re-open the Senate investigation into the
matter in light of the reported new evidence questioning the PNP-SAFs claim and
the PNP Board of Inquirys findings that PNP-SAF members were the ones
responsible for killing Malaysian terrorist Zulkifli bin Hir, alias Marwan, and not
Marwans aides as asserted by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF); and the
efforts of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to validate new information
about the real killers of Marwan, among other things;
(12) The order issued by the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee for the arrest of 11
individuals due to their failure to attend hearings on the allegations of corruption
against Vice-President Binay and, in another development, the latest hearing
conducted by the Senate Blue Ribbon Sub-Committee wherein a resource person
disclosed that several alleged dummy firms of Vice-President Binay got most of the
P 5.6B worth of contracts to provide security, janitorial, and IT services for the
Makati City local government for the last decade or so;
(13) The SCs 8-4 decision allowing Senator Enrile to post bail while on trial for his
alleged involvement in the PDAF scam which, consequently, paved the way for the
lawmakers return to the Senate, and the controversy that followed involving
Associate Justices Lucas Bersamin and Marvic Leonen with the former disputing
the allegations made by the latter that the majority opinion on the case, which was
penned by Associate Justice Bersamin himself, was the result of obvious political
accommodation rather than a judicious consideration of the facts and the law;
(14) The Office of the Ombudsmans filing of a motion for reconsideration before the SC
on the grounds that the decision allowing Senator Enrile to post bail was made
without due process as the SC did not allow the prosecution to contest the
lawmakers claim that he should be allowed bail due to his poor health condition
and that it violated the equal protection clause in light of the special favor granted
to the lawmaker;
(15) Malacaangs opposition to a bill filed in the HOR seeking to reduce the taxes
being paid by fixed-income earners as this would reduce government revenues by
at least P 29B annually, House Speaker Belmontes continued expression of
support for the income tax reform bill notwithstanding, and Senator Juan Edgardo
Angaras call for the Senate and the HOR to work together on a modified tax
reduction scheme for the benefit of fixed-income earners;
(16) The Presidents directive to the Philippine National Police-Highway Patrol Group
(PNP-HPG) for it to take over the management of traffic along EDSA beginning 07
3

September 2015, the horrendous traffic jam in Metro Manila on 08 September 2015
due to flash floods and the lack of traffic enforcers along major thoroughfares, and
Malacaangs announcement that a truck ban will be reimposed along EDSA
starting 15 September 2015;
(17) The confirmation of Gen. Hernando Delfin Iriberri as Armed Forces of the
Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff, the appointment of LP Secretary General Mel
Senen Sarmiento as the new DILG Secretary, and the resignation of Department of
Trade and Industry (DTI) Secretary Gregory Domingo;
(18) The call made by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the
United States (US) for China to stop its land reclamation activities in disputed
territories in the South China Sea amidst the Chinese governments continued
insistence on the legality of its actions in the area;
(19) The massive blasts at a port in Tianjin, China which resulted in the death of more
than 100 individuals, injured hundreds, and left thousands homeless, with fire
officials attributing the explosions to a fire at one of the warehouses where
hazardous chemicals were stored; the bomb explosion in a Bangkok religious
shrine which killed at least 20 people and injured more than 100 others; and the
death of 107 pilgrims following the crash of a construction crane through the roof
of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia;
(20) On the economic front, the depreciation of the local currency vis--vis the
American dollar as it breached the P47:$1-mark following the strengthening of the
latter due to the possible increase in interest rates by the end of September 2015
and the continued weakening of regional US Federal Reserve currencies; the
Philippine Statistics Authoritys (PSA) announcement that inflation reached 0.6%
in August 2015; the continued decline in the electricity bills of Manila Electric
Company (Meralco) customers as a result of lower prices for power supply; and
the rise in fuel prices due to movements in prices in the international market.
This nationwide survey is based on a sample of 2,400 representative adults 18
years old and above. It has a 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational
estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the
rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a 4% error margin, also at 95% confidence
level. Those interested in further technical details concerning the survey's questionnaire
and sampling design may request Pulse Asia Research in writing for fuller details.
Pulse Asia Researchs pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the
design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey
data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan
group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia Research undertakes Ulat ng Bayan
surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.
For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda,
Research Director of Pulse Asia Research, at 09189436816 or Prof. Ronald D. Holmes,
Pulse Asia Research President, at 09189335497 or via email (ronald.holmes@gmail.com).

Pulse Asia Researchs September 2015 Ulat ng Bayan Survey:


Media Release on the May 2016 Elections
28 September 2015
Senator Grace Poe leads the May 2016 presidential race (26%) while second
place is shared by three other probable presidential candidates
If the May 2016 elections were held during the survey period, Senator Grace Poe
would be elected president by 26% of Filipinos. This overall voter preference puts
her ahead of 11 other probable contenders for the presidency. Sharing second place
are Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Manuel A.
Roxas II (20%), Vice-President Jejomar C. Binay (19%), and Davao City Mayor
Rodrigo Duterte (16%).1 The other individuals included in this survey register
voter preferences of at most 6%. Less than one in 10 Filipinos (3%) is not inclined
to vote for any of the probable presidential bets whose electoral chances in May
2016 are probed in this survey. (Please refer to Table 1.)
Table 1
2016 ELECTIONS: PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
September 8 - 14, 2015 / Philippines / PR1&2
(In Percent)
Base: Total Interviews, 100%
LOCATION

Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for


as PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES if the 2016
elections were held today and they were candidates?

RP

CLASS

NCR

BL

VIS

MIN

ABC

You may mention others not included in this list.

POE, GRACE
ROXAS, MANUEL "Mar"

26
20

26
11

31
18

20
34

20
15

22
22

26
19

25
20

BINAY, JEJOMAR "Jojo"


DUTERTE, RODRIGO "Rody"

19
16

22
21

21
8

16
14

17
29

17
20

19
16

20
12

MARCOS, FERDINAND JR. "Bongbong"


ESTRADA, JOSEPH "Erap"
DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, MIRIAM

6
5
3

7
2
3

9
5
3

2
3
4

3
10
1

7
2
4

6
5
2

5
9
4

LACSON, PANFILO "Ping" M.

CAYETANO, ALAN PETER


BELLO, WALDEN
SABIO, CAMILO
SEERES, ROY
Others
Dont Know/Refused/None

0.1
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0.5

PR1&2. Sa mga taong nasa listahang ito, sino ang inyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS kung ang eleksyon ng 2016 ay gaganapin
Q15&18 ngayon at sila ay mga kandidato? M aaari kayong magbanggit ng iba pa na wala sa listahan. (ONE ANSWER ONLY)

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte announced his decision not to run for president next year on 07
September 2015 a day before the fieldwork for this survey was scheduled to start.
5

The leading choices for president in Metro Manila are Senator Poe (26%), VicePresident Binay (22%), and Davao City Mayor Duterte (21%) while in the rest of
Luzon, the top contender for the post is Senator Poe (31%). DILG Secretary Roxas
is the choice for president by a sizeable plurality of Visayans (34%). Mindanaoans,
on the other hand, are most supportive of Davao City Mayor Duterte (29%).
Across socio-economic classes, the most preferred presidential bets of those in
Class ABC are Senator Poe (22%), DILG Secretary Roxas (22%), Davao City Mayor
Duterte (20%), and Vice-President Binay (17%). About a quarter of those in Class
D (26%) express support for Senator Poes presidential bid. And in Class E, the
most favored candidates for president are Senator Poe (25%), Vice-President Binay
(20%), and DILG Secretary Roxas (20%).
Senators Grace Poe and Francis Escudero are statistically tied for first place in
the May 2016 vice-presidential elections (24% and 23%, respectively)2
While 24% of Filipinos would elect Senator Grace Poe as vice-president if the May
2016 elections coincided with the conduct of the interviews for this survey, 23%
would support Senator Francis Escuderos own vice-presidential bid. The only
other probable vice-presidential candidate who registers a double-digit national
voter preference is Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. (13%). There are nine other
personalities included in this electoral probe and they obtain voter preferences
ranging from 0.1% to 9%. Only 3% of Filipinos do not express support for any of
the individuals included in the vice-presidential electoral probe. (Please refer to
Table 2.)
Three individuals share the top spot in Metro Manila Senators Escudero (27%),
Poe (21%), and Marcos (21%). In the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao, the
leading contenders for the vice-presidential post are Senators Escudero (19% to
26%) and Poe (21% to 28%). In Class ABC, the most preferred vice-presidential
candidates are Senators Poe (24%), Escudero (22%), Marcos (20%), and Alan Peter
Cayetano (15%). And in Classes D and E, Senators Poe and Escudero emerge as
the frontrunners in the vice-presidential race (23% to 26% and 21% to 24%,
respectively).

By the time Senator Grace Poe made public her May 2016 presidential bid on 16 September 2015, the
interviews for this survey had already been completed. The last interviews were conducted on 14 September
2015.
6

Table 2
2016 ELECTIONS: VICE-PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
September 8 - 14, 2015 / Philippines / PR1&2
(In Percent)
Base: Total Interviews, 100%
Of the people on this list, whom would you vote
LOCATION

for as VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES


if the 2016 elections were held today and they
were candidates? You may mention others

RP

NCR

BL

VIS

CLASS

MIN

ABC

not included in this list.

POE, GRACE

24

21

21

28

28

24

23

26

ESCUDERO, FRANCIS "Chiz"

23

27

26

20

19

22

24

21

MARCOS, FERDINAND JR. "Bongbong"

13

21

14

20

14

CAYETANO, ALAN PETER "Alan"

10

12

15

10

AQUINO, BENIGNO III "PNoy" S.

11

SANTOS, VILMA "Ate Vi"

LACSON, PANFILO "Ping"

TRILLANES, ANTONIO IV "Sonny"

ESTRADA, JINGGOY

ROBREDO, LENI

PANGILINAN, FRANCIS Kiko

0.1

Others

Don't know/Refused/None

HENARES, KIM

PR1&2. Sa mga taong nasa listahang ito, sino ang inyong iboboto bilang BISE-PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS kung ang eleksyon ng 2016 ay gaganapin
Q23&28 ngayon at sila ay mga kandidato? M aaari kayong magbanggit ng iba pa na wala sa listahan. (ONE ANSWER ONLY)

Filipinos are now naming an average of 10 of their preferred candidates for the
Senate in the May 2016 elections and most of them already have a complete
senatorial slate (64%); of the 50 individuals included in the senatorial electoral
probe, 14 have a statistical chance of winning with Senator Vicente C. Sotto III
landing in solo 1st place (63.6%)
In September 2015, Filipinos are identifying a mean of 10 and a median of 12 (out of a
maximum of 12) senatorial candidates they are supporting in May 2016. Across survey
sub-groupings, mean figures range from eight among Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) members
and Kapampangans to 11 among Muslims and Warays while a median figure of 12 is
registered in practically all sub-groupings. The only exceptions are recorded among
INC members and Kapampangans (10 and 11, respectively). Around two in three
Filipinos (64%) are already naming 12 preferred candidates for the senatorial elections
in May 2016. Majority figures are posted in nearly all survey sub-groupings ranging
from 55% in Metro Manila and among those with some college education and Warays
to 73% among farmers/fisherfolks. The only non-majority figures obtain among INC
members (45%) and Kapampangans (46%). (Please refer to Tables 3 to 4.)
7

Table 3
2016 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL FILL-UP RATES
September 8 - 14, 2015 / Philippines / PR1&2
(In Percent)

Demographic
variables

(Estimated
Population
Percentage)

Base: Total Interviews

Demographic
variables

Mean

Median

(100%)

10

12

Total Philippines

NCR
Balance Luzon
Urban
Rural
Visayas
Urban
Rural
Mindanao
Urban
Rural

(14%)
(44%)
(17%)
(27%)
(19%)
(6%)
(13%)
(22%)
(9%)
(14%)

9
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10

12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12

Total Urban
Total Rural

(46%)
(54%)

10
10

Class ABC
TOTAL D

(9%)
(69%)
(48%)
(21%)
(23%)

Male
Female
18-24 years old
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 & up

Total Philippines

D1 (owns res'l lot)


D2 (does not own res'l lot)

(Estimated
Population
Percentage)

Base: Total Interviews


Mean

Median

(100%)

10

12

No formal educ/elem grad


Some HS
Completed HS
Vocational
Some college
Completed coll/post coll

(24%)
(13%)
(33%)
(7%)
(12%)
(11%)

10
10
10
10
10
9

12
12
12
12
12
12

12
12

Total Working
Government
Private
Self-employed
Farmer/Fisherfolk
Not Working

(55%)
(5%)
(11%)
(26%)
(14%)
(45%)

10
10
10
10
10
10

12
12
12
12
12
12

10
10
10
10
10

12
12
12
12
12

Roman Catholic
Iglesia Ni Cristo
Aglipayan
Islam
Others

(85%)
(3%)
(1%)
(4%)
(7%)

10
8
10
11
10

12
10
12
12
12

(50%)
(50%)

10
10

12
12

(15%)
(21%)
(23%)
(17%)
(14%)
(10%)

10
10
10
10
10
9

12
12
12
12
12
12

Tagalog
Ilocano
Pangasinense
Kapampangan
Bicolano
Ilonggo
Cebuano
Waray
Others

(43%)
(7%)
(---)
(1%)
(6%)
(8%)
(26%)
(0.5%)
(8%)

10
10
--8
10
10
10
11
10

12
12
--11
12
12
12
12
12

Table 4
2016 ELECTIONS: NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCES
September 8 - 14, 2015 / Philippines / PR1&2
Page 1 of 2

(Estimated
Demographic
variables

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Population
Percentage)

10

11

12

(100%)

64

NCR
Balance Luzon
Urban
Rural
Visayas
Urban
Rural
Mindanao
Urban
Rural

(14%)
(44%)
(17%)
(27%)
(19%)
(6%)
(13%)
(22%)
(9%)
(14%)

2
2
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3

1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1

3
2
2
2
1
0
1
1
0
2

3
1
1
1
2
3
2
4
5
3

5
3
2
3
2
4
2
3
3
3

5
3
2
4
3
5
3
3
2
3

6
4
3
4
4
3
5
4
5
3

6
4
4
3
4
5
4
4
5
4

4
3
4
2
3
3
3
4
4
4

6
4
5
4
3
3
3
5
3
7

4
2
3
2
5
5
6
5
6
4

2
1
0
2
5
4
6
4
2
5

55
69
69
69
64
63
64
60
62
58

Total Urban
Total Rural

(46%)
(54%)

3
2

1
1

2
2

3
2

4
3

3
4

5
4

5
4

4
3

4
4

4
3

1
4

63
65

Class ABC
TOTAL D
D1 (owns res'l lot)
D2 (does not own res'l lot)
E

(9%)
(69%)
(48%)
(21%)
(23%)

2
2
2
3
2

1
0
1
0
1

2
2
1
2
1

3
2
2
2
3

3
3
3
4
3

4
3
4
2
4

5
4
4
4
4

7
4
4
4
5

3
4
3
4
3

7
5
4
5
3

1
4
4
4
4

2
3
2
3
3

60
65
65
63
63

Male
Female

(50%)
(50%)

2
3

1
0

2
2

2
2

3
3

4
3

4
4

4
5

4
3

5
4

4
4

2
3

64
64

18-24 years old


25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 & up

(15%)
(21%)
(23%)
(17%)
(14%)
(10%)

0
1
3
3
3
5

1
1
0
1
0
1

1
2
2
2
2
2

1
2
2
2
4
3

4
3
3
3
2
5

2
4
3
3
4
3

4
5
5
5
2
3

4
3
5
5
3
6

3
3
4
2
4
6

4
4
6
4
3
3

2
5
3
5
4
3

3
3
2
2
3
3

70
65
61
63
66
57

Total Philippines

Table 4
2016 ELECTIONS: NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCES
September 8 - 14, 2015 / Philippines / PR1&2
Page 2 of 2

(Estimated
Demographic
variables

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Population
Percentage)

10

11

12

(100%)

64

No formal educ/elem grad


Some HS
Completed HS
Vocational
Some college
Completed coll/post coll

(24%)
(13%)
(33%)
(7%)
(12%)
(11%)

4
2
2
1
1
3

1
0
0
0
1
1

2
1
1
2
2
1

3
3
2
2
2
3

4
4
2
3
4
3

2
3
3
5
2
6

3
5
5
3
3
6

5
2
2
3
9
6

3
5
3
2
6
4

3
4
4
9
7
3

5
4
3
5
4
2

3
1
3
2
3
3

62
65
69
65
55
59

Total Working
Government
Private
Self-employed
Farmer/Fisherfolk
Not Working

(55%)
(5%)
(11%)
(26%)
(14%)
(45%)

2
1
0
3
3
3

0
3
0
0
1
1

2
0
2
2
2
1

2
1
2
2
1
3

3
5
3
4
1
3

4
5
4
4
3
3

4
4
5
5
1
5

4
1
7
4
2
4

4
7
2
4
3
3

4
6
6
4
3
4

4
3
2
4
6
4

2
2
2
3
1
3

65
63
65
61
73
63

Roman Catholic
Iglesia Ni Cristo
Aglipayan
Islam
Others

(85%)
(3%)
(1%)
(4%)
(7%)

2
11
0
1
5

1
0
0
0
0

2
4
4
1
2

2
3
0
0
3

3
3
0
4
2

3
4
4
1
4

4
12
0
4
3

4
6
9
6
5

4
3
4
3
1

5
1
0
4
4

3
7
8
4
5

3
1
13
5
2

64
45
58
66
65

Tagalog
Ilocano
Pangasinense
Kapampangan
Bicolano
Ilonggo
Cebuano
Waray
Others

(43%)
(7%)
(---)
(1%)
(6%)
(8%)
(26%)
(0.5%)
(8%)

3
2
--8
0
3
3
0
1

1
1
--0
0
1
0
0
0

3
1
--8
0
0
1
0
3

2
1
--0
0
3
3
0
1

3
7
--0
0
3
3
0
3

3
8
--8
1
3
3
0
3

4
3
--8
5
6
3
15
5

3
3
--15
9
4
5
0
3

3
3
--0
6
2
4
7
5

4
1
--0
13
2
4
0
6

3
0
--0
3
3
6
7
4

1
0
--8
5
4
4
15
4

66
68
--46
58
66
61
55
63

Total Philippines

Practically all of the 14 probable winners in the senatorial race are either
incumbent or former members of Congress. Senator Vicente C. Sotto III is
currently leading the senatorial race with an overall voter preference of 63.6% and
a statistical ranking of 1st place. Former Senator Panfilo M. Lacson finds himself in
solo 2nd place with an overall voter preference of 59.3% while Senator Ferdinand
Marcos, Jr. lands in 3rd place with the support of 54.9% of Filipinos. Completing
the list of probable winners are Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (48.2%, 4th to
6th places), Presidential Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural
Modernization Francis N. Pangilinan (46.6%, 4th to 6th places), Senator Ralph G.
Recto (45.4%, 4th to 6th places), former Senator Juan Miguel F. Zubiri (41.4%, 7th to
9th places), Saranggani Representative Manny Pacquiao (39.6%, 7th to 11th places),
10

Senator Sergio R. Osmea III (38.7%, 7th to 13th places), former Senator Richard
Gordon (36.8%, 8th to 14th places), Las Pias City Representative Mark Villar
(35.8%, 8th to 14th places), former Senator Jamby Madrigal (35.2%, 9th to 14th places),
Department of Justice (DOJ) Secretary Leila M. de Lima (35.2%, 9th to 14th places),
and Taguig City Representative Lino Edgardo S. Cayetano (34.2%, 10th to 15th
places). Only 2.1% of Filipinos do not express support for any probable senatorial
candidate in the May 2016 elections. (Please refer to Table 5.)

Table 6
2016 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES
September 8 - 14, 2015 / Philippines / PR1&2
(Multiple Responses, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 1 of 2

Base: Total Interviews, 100%


Aware

Voting for

Rank

SOTTO, Vicente III "Tito" C.


LACSON, Panfilo "Ping" M.

98
97

63.6
59.3

1
2

MARCOS, Ferdinand Jr. "Bongbong" R.

99

54.9

DRILON, Franklin "Frank" M.


PANGILINAN, Francis "Kiko" N.

96
98

48.2
46.6

4-6
4-6

RECTO, Ralph G.

95

ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel "Migz" F.


PACQUIAO, Manny

93
99

45.4
41.4

4-6
7-9

39.6

7-11

OSMEA, Sergio III "Serge" R.


GORDON, Dick

95
92

38.7
36.8

7-13
8-14

VILLAR, Mark "Markang Villar"

89

35.8

8-14

MADRIGAL, Jamby
DE LIMA, Leila M.

93
95

35.2
35.2

9-14
9-14

CAYETANO, Lino Edgardo S.

77

34.2

10-15

HONTIVEROS, Risa
GUINGONA, Teofisto III "TG"

79
88

31.3
28.8

14-16
15-17

ATIENZA, Lito
MORENO, Isko

86
94

25.8
25.1

16-21
17-22

BIAZON, Rodolfo "Pong"

76

24.2

17-22

P R 1&2 . Kung a ng e le k s yo n ng 2 0 16 a y is a s a ga wa nga yo n, s inu- s ino s a m ga s um us uno d na pe rs o na lida d a ng inyo ng ibo bo t o


Q 2 6 &3 2 . k ung s a k a ling s ila a y k a k a ndida t o s a pa gk a - S E N A D O R ? P uwe de k a yo ng pum ili ng ha ngga ng 12 pa nga la n. [ S H O WC A R D ]
P R 1&2 . M a y na rinig, na ba s a o na pa no o d na ba k a yo ng k a hit na a no t ungk o l s a m ga s um us uno d o wa la pa ?
Q 2 7 &3 3 . ( S H UF F LE C A R D S )

11

Table 6
2016 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES
September 8 - 14, 2015 / Philippines / PR1&2
(Multiple Responses, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 2 of 2

Base: Total Interviews, 100%


Aware

Voting for

Rank

BINAY, Mar-Len Abigail "Abby"


LAPID, Mark
ROBREDO, Leni
TOLENTINO, Francis N.
GATCHALIAN, Sherwin "Win"

75
86
67
69
71

23.0
23.0
21.8
17.4
15.8

17-22
17-22
18-22
23-25
23-25

DANTES, Dingdong
VILLANUEVA, Emmanuel "Joel" J.
REMULLA, Gilbert C.
LIM, Danilo "Danny"
HENARES, Kim

95
63
51
46
52

15.1
12.6
10.1
9.6
9.1

23-26
25-27
26-32
27-32
27-32

MORENO, Alma
ROMUALDEZ, Martin "Malasakit"
SINGSON, ALLEN "AGS"
TAADA, Lorenzo III "Erin" R.
QUIRINO, Cory

97
51
26
42
40

9.0
8.6
8.2
6.2
4.9

27-32
27-32
27-33
32-38
33-42

PETILLA, Carlos Jericho "Icot" L.


ABAYA, Joseph Emilio "Jun" A.
RODRIGUEZ, Rufus
DAVID, Randy
COLMENARES, Neri J.

21
31
24
34
41

4.8
4.8
4.6
4.5
4.3

33-42
33-42
33-42
33-44
34-44

ROMULO, Roman
KAPUNAN, Lorna Atty. Kapunan
HATAMAN, Mujiv
ALMENDRAS, Jose Rene D.
ARENAS, Rachel "Baby"

28
28
12
25
28

4.2
3.7
3.7
3.0
2.9

34-44
34-46
34-46
37-46
38-46

KIRAM, Princess Jacel


ALUNAN, Rafael "Raffy" M.
PAGDILAO, Samuel
ROQUE, Harry "Atty. Harry Roque"
BERBERABE, Darlene Marie B.
REMOTO, Danton "Remoto Control"

8
23
10
19
14
11

2.7
2.5
1.6
1.6
1.4
0.7

41-48
41-49
45-49
45-49
46-50
47-50

Don't know
Refused
None

-------

0.2
0.1
2.1

-------

12