# 6 Distribusi Probabilitas Diskrit

Business Statistics:
A Decision-Making Approach
8th Edition
Chapter 5
Discrete Probability Distributions
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
5-1
Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
Calculate and interpret the expected value of a discrete
probability distribution
Apply the binomial distribution to business problems
Compute probabilities for the Poisson and
hypergeometric distributions
Recognize when to apply discrete probability
distributions to decision making situations
5-2
Introduction to Probability Distributions

Probability is the way decision makers express their
uncertainty about outcomes and events.

Random Variables
A variable that takes on different numerical values based on chance.
Represents a possible numerical value from a random event.
Can vary from trial to trial.
Contoh :
Inspektor memeriksa 3 TV plasma dan menentukan diterima atau
tidak diterima.
Outcome/hasil dari eksperimen yang mungkin adalah :
x = {0, 1, 2, 3} random variable
5-3
Introduction to Probability Distributions
Random
Variables
Ch. 5
Discrete
Random Variable
Continuous
Random Variable
Ch. 6
5-4
Discrete Random Variable

A discrete random variable is a variable that can assume only
a countable number of values

Many possible outcomes:
number of complaints per day
number of TVs in a household
number of rings before the phone is answered
Only two possible outcomes:
gender: male or female
defective: yes or no
spreads peanut butter first vs. spreads jelly first
5-5
Contoh :
Kuis Statistik Industri 1 berupa soal pilihan ganda. Apabila x
merepresentasikan jumlah pertanyaan yang dijawab dengan
benar. Maka x adalah discrete random variable. Nilai yang
mungkin untuk x adalah :
x = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Asuransi Prudential melakukan survey pada konsumennya untuk
menentukan jumlah anak berusia di bawah 22 tahun yang tinggal
di rumah.
Maka random variable adalah x yaitu jumlah anak yang tinggal di
rumah.
x = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, ...} discrete random variable
5-6
Continuous Random Variable

A continuous random variable is a variable that can assume
any value on a continuum (can assume an uncountable

number of values)
thickness of an item
time required to complete a task
temperature of a solution
height, in inches
These can potentially take on any value, depending only on
the ability to measure accurately.
5-7
Discrete Random Variables

Can only assume a countable number of values
Examples:
Roll a die twice
Let x be the number of times 4 comes up

x = {0, 1, or 2 times}
Toss a coin 5 times
Let x be the number of heads

x = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5}
5-8
Discrete Probability Distribution

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Let x = # heads.
4 possible outcomes
H
H
T
H
x Value Probability
0
1/4 = 0.25
2/4 = 0.50
1/4 = 0.25
T
H
Probability
Probability Distribution
0.5
0
0.2
5
5-9

A list of all possible [ xi , P(xi) ] pairs
xi = Value of Random Variable (Outcome)

P(xi) = Probability Associated with Value
xis are mutually exclusive (no overlap)
xis are collectively exhaustive (nothing left out)

0 P(xi) 1 for each xi
The probability of xi is between 0 and 1
S P(xi) = 1
The sum of all probabilities in the sample space = 1
5-10

3 possible outcomes
21 possible outcomes
The number of possible outcomes increase, the distribution

besome smoother dan the individual probability of any particular
value tends to be reduce
5-11
Discrete Random Variable Mean

Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete distribution
(Weighted Average) the weight are probability
assigned ti the values.
The average value when the experiment that generates
values for the random varianle is repeated over the long
run.
= E(x) = xi P(xi)
Where :
E(x) = Expected value of x
x = values of the random variable
P(x) = probability of the randim variable taking on the
value x
5-12
Discrete Random Variable Mean

Example: Toss 2 coins,
x = # of heads,
compute expected value of x:
x
P(x)
0.25
0.50
0.25
E(x) = (0 x 0.25) + (1 x 0.50) + (2 x 0.25)

= 1.0
5-13
Discrete Random Variable Standard

Deviation
Variace of a discrete random variable
2 [X i E(X)] 2 P(Xi )
Standard Deviation of a discrete distribution
{x
E(x)} P(xi )
2
where:
E(x) = Expected value of the random variable (x)

x = Values of the random variable
P(x) = Probability of the random variable having the value of x
5-14
Discrete Random Variable Standard

Deviation
(continued)
Example: Toss 2 coins, x = # heads,
compute standard deviation (recall E(x) = 1)
{x
E(x)} P(xi )
2
x (0 1) 2 (0.25) (1 1) 2 (0.50) (2 1) 2 (0.25) 0.50 .707
Possible number of heads = 0, 1, or 2

5-15
Contoh
Karena cuaca buruk, jumlah hari pada minggu depan untuk
pelayaran menjadi tidak tentu. Misalkan x adalah hari

pelayaran terjadi. Berikut ini adalah distribusi probabilitas
dari variabel, x ditentukan berdasarkan data historis saat
cuaca buruk :
X
P(x) 0,05
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,15 0,15 0,05
Berdasarkan distribusi probabilitas, tentukan expected dari
hari per minggu yang memungkinkan untuk pelayaran?

Tentukan pula standar deviasinya!
5-16
Expected value :
x
P(x)
0,05
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,15
0,15
0,05
Sum
x.P(x)
0,1
0,2
0,6
0,8
0,75
0,9
0,35
3,7
Standar deviasi :
5-17
Probability Distributions
Ch. 5
Ch. 6
Discrete
Probability
Distributions
Continuous
Probability
Distributions
Binomial*
Poisson*
Normal
Hypergeometric*
Uniform
Binomial Negative
Exponential
Multinomial
Geometric
5-18
The Binomial Distribution

A distribution that gives the probability of x successes in n
trial in a process that meets the following condition

(characteristics the Binomial Distribution) :
A trial has only two possible outcomes success or failure
There is a fixed number, n (finite), of identical trials
The trials of the experiment are independent of each other
The probability of a success, p, remains constant from trial to
trial
If p represents the probability of a success, then
(1-p) = q is the probability of a failure
The sampling is performed with replacement from a finite
population.
5-19
Binomial Distribution Examples

A manufacturing plant labels items as either defective or
acceptable
A firm bidding for a contract will either get the contract
or not
A marketing research firm receives survey responses of
yes I will buy or no I will not

New job applicants either accept the offer or reject it
5-20
Counting Rule for Combinations

A combination is an outcome of an experiment where x
objects are selected from a group of n objects.
n!
C
x! (n x )!
n
x
where:
Cxn = number of combinations of x objects selected from n objects
n! =n(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
Order does not matter
x! = x(x - 1)(x - 2) . . . (2)(1)
NOTE: 0! = 1 (by definition)
i.e. ABC = CBA only one

outcome
5-21
Contoh
Dilakukan pemeriksaan terhadap 4 kelompok sepatu untuk
menentukan kualitas good dan defect.

Maka kombinasi cara untuk mendapatkan kemungkinan
defect bersifat discrete dengan hasil sebagai berikut :
x = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}
x=0
4!
4 x3x2 x1
C
1
0!(4 0)! 1(4 x3x2 x1)
4
0
x=1
4!
4 x3x2 x1
4
C1
4
1!(4 1)! 1(3x2 x1)
G, G, G, G
G, G, G, D
G, G, D, G
G, D, G, G
D, G, G, G
5-22
x=2
4!
4 x3x2 x1
4
C2
6
2!(4 2)! 2 x1(2 x1)
x=3
4!
4 x3x2 x1
C
4
3!(4 3)! 3x2 x1(1)
4
3
x=4
G, G, D, D
G, D, G, D
G, D, D, G
D, G, D, G
D, D, G, G
D, G, G, D
G, D, D, D
D, G, D, D
D, D, G, D
D, D, D, G
4!
4 x3x2 x1
C
1
4!(4 4)! 4 x3x2 x1(1)
4
4
D, D, D, D
5-23
Binomial Distribution Formula

n!
x
nP(x) =
p q
x ! (n - x )!
P(x) = probability of x successes in n trials, with probability of

success p on each trial
Example: Flip a coin
x = number of successes in sample,
four times, let x = #
(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
heads:
p = probability of success per trial
n=4
q = probability of failure = (1 p)
p = 0.5
n = number of trials (sample size)
1 - p = (1 - 0.5) = 0.5
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
5-24
Dengan menggunakan persoalan pada pemeriksaan sepatu
diketahui n = 4, p = 0,1 dan x = 2 defects

Maka :
n!
P( x)
p x q n x
x!(n x)!
4!
P(2)
(0,12 )(0,9 2 ) 0,0486
2!2!
5-25
Distribution
x = # of
defects
P(x)
0,6561
0,2916
0,0486
0,0036
0,0001
Total
1,0000
Perhitungan dengan menggunakan rumus seringkali

memerlukan waktu.
Untuk itu dapat digunakan tabel Binomial.
5-26
Tabel Binomial
5-27
Example:
Calculating a Binomial Probability
What is the probability of one success in five
observations if the probability of success is .1?
x = 1, n = 5, and p = 0.1
n!
P(x 1)
p x (1 p)n x
x!(n x)!
5!
(0.1)1 (1 0.1) 51
1!(5 1)!
(5)(0.1)(0 .9) 4
0.32805
Business Statistics, A First Course (4e) 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
5-28
Binomial Distribution
Summary Measures
Mean
E(x) np
Variance and Standard Deviation
npq
2
npq
Where n = sample size
p = probability of success
q = (1 p) = probability of failure
5-29
Binomial Distribution
The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the
values of p and n
Mean
Here, n = 5 and p = 0.1

(Binomial distribution
skewed. The skeweness
will most pronoinced
when n is small and p
approaches 0 or 1)
Here, n = 5 and p = 0.5
(bell-shapes distribution)
.6
.4
.2
0
P(X)
.6
.4
.2
0
n = 5 p = 0.1
P(X)
n = 5 p = 0.5
X
5
5-30
Binomial Characteristics
Examples
np (5)(0.1) 0.5
Mean
npq (5)(0.1)(1 .1)
0.6708
np (5)(0.5) 2.5
npq (5)(0.5)(1 0.5)
1.118
.6
.4
.2
0
P(X)
.6
.4
.2
0
n = 5 p = 0.1
P(X)
n = 5 p = 0.5
X
5
5-31
Binomial Distribution Example

Example: 35% of all voters support Proposition A. If a
random sample of 10 voters is polled, what is the probability

that exactly three of them support the proposition?
i.e., find P(x = 3) if n = 10 and p = 0.35 :
n!
10!
x n x
P(x 3)
pq
(0.35) 3 (0.65) 7 0.2522
x!(n x)!
3!7!
There is a 25.22% chance that exactly 3 out of the 10
voters will support Proposition A
5-32
Using Cumulative Binomial Distribution

Tables
If a random sample of 10 voters is polled, what is the probability
that three or fewer of them support the proposition?
n = 10
x
p=.15
p=.20
p=.25
p=.30
p=.35
p=.40
p=.45
p=.50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.1969
0.5443
0.8202
0.9500
0.9901
0.9986
0.9999
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.1074
0.3758
0.6778
0.8791
0.9672
0.9936
0.9991
0.9999
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.0563
0.2440
0.5256
0.7759
0.9219
0.9803
0.9965
0.9996
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.0282
0.1493
0.3828
0.6496
0.8497
0.9527
0.9894
0.9984
0.9999
1.0000
1.0000
0.0135
0.0860
0.2616
0.5138
0.7515
0.9051
0.9740
0.9952
0.9995
1.0000
1.0000
0.0060
0.0464
0.1673
0.3823
0.6331
0.8338
0.9452
0.9877
0.9983
0.9999
1.0000
0.0025
0.0233
0.0996
0.2660
0.5044
0.7384
0.8980
0.9726
0.9955
0.9997
1.0000
0.0010
0.0107
0.0547
0.1719
0.3770
0.6230
0.8281
0.9453
0.9893
0.9990
1.0000
Example: n = 10, p = 0.35, x = 3:
P(x = 3, n =10, p = 0.35) = 0.5138
5-33
Contoh
Manager PT Coca Cola Amatil mengirimkan 300 email kepada
konsumen untuk mengukur kepuasan terhadap pelayanan

tahunan. Selama ini tingkat pengembalian email (membalas email)
adalah p = 0,11.
Sehingga expected value (mean) pengembalian email adalah : E(x)
= n.p = 300 x 0,11 = 33
Pada tahun ini ternyata da 44 konsumen yang membalas email
sebanyak 44 orang. Pengembalian ini melebihi 33 orang.
Selanjutnya manager melakukan pengujian terhadap data tersebut
: P(x44) = 1 P(x43)
Tabel binomial memiliki keterbatasan untuk sample > 300,
sehingga perhitungan dilakukan dengan menggunakan software
excel ataupun minitab.
5-34
Using EXCEL
1. Buka sheet kosong
2. Pilih Formulas
3. Klik pada fx (Function
4.
5.
6.
7.
wizard)
Pilih Statistical Category
Pilih BINOMDIST
function
Lengkapi informasi yang
diminta
True mengindikasikan
probabilitas kumulatif
P(x43) = 0,97
P(x44) = 1 0,97 = 0,03
Hanya 3% peluang dari
44 atau lebih konsumen
yang membalas email
dari peluang 11%.
5-35
The Poisson Distribution

Difficult to count the number of failures, so diffivult to
know possible outcomes (successes + failures).

Characteristics of the Poisson Distribution:
The outcomes of interest are rare relative to the possible
outcomes
The average number of outcomes of interest per time or
space interval is
The number of outcomes of interest are random, and the
occurrence of one outcome does not influence the chances
of another outcome of interest
The probability that an outcome of interest occurs in a
given segment is the same for all segments
5-36
Contoh :
Mendeskripsikan suatu situasi :
Jumlah pasien yang datang pada unit IGD per jam.
Jumlah panggilan pada customer service Telkom setiap
30 menit.
Mendeskripsikan random variable :
Jumlah dot pada setuap lembar kertas.
Jumlah kontaminan dalam segalon air
5-37
Poisson Distribution
Summary Measures
Mean
E(x) x t
and t must be in compatibe unit.

the average number in t segment, is not necessarily the number
we eill see if we observe the process for t segments.
Variance and Standard Deviation
t
2
t
where = number of successes in a segment of unit size
t = the size of the segment of interest
5-38
Graph of Poisson Probabilities

0.70
Graphically:
0.60
= .05 and t = 100
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.6065
0.3033
0.0758
0.0126
0.0016
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
P(x)
t =
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
0
P(x = 2) = 0.0758
5-39
Poisson Distribution Shape

The shape of the Poisson Distribution depends on the
parameters and t:
t = 0.50
t = 3.0
0.70
0.25
0.60
0.20
0.40
P(x)
P(x)
0.50
0.30
0.15
0.10
0.20
0.05
0.10
0.00
0.00
0
10
11
12
5-40
Poisson Distribution Formula
(t ) e
P( x)
x!
x
where:
t = size of the segment of interest
x = number of successes in segment of interest
= expected number of successes in a segment of unit
size
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)
5-41
Using Poisson Tables

t
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0.9048
0.0905
0.0045
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.8187
0.1637
0.0164
0.0011
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.7408
0.2222
0.0333
0.0033
0.0003
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.6703
0.2681
0.0536
0.0072
0.0007
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.6065
0.3033
0.0758
0.0126
0.0016
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.5488
0.3293
0.0988
0.0198
0.0030
0.0004
0.0000
0.0000
0.4966
0.3476
0.1217
0.0284
0.0050
0.0007
0.0001
0.0000
0.4493
0.3595
0.1438
0.0383
0.0077
0.0012
0.0002
0.0000
0.4066
0.3659
0.1647
0.0494
0.0111
0.0020
0.0003
0.0000
Example: Find P(x = 2) if = 0.05 and t = 100
(t ) x e t (0.50) 2 e 0.50
P( x 2)
0.0758
x!
2!
5-42
Contoh
Figur kedatangn dari konsumen Mc. D disajikan dlam
distribusi Poissson dengan = 16 konsume per jam.

Berdasarkan data didapatkan waktu pelayanan cukup
konstan pada 6 menit. Di restoran terdapat 3 kasir, sehingga
dalam 6 menit 3 konsumen dapat terlayani. Manager
bermaksud mengetahui probabilitas 1 atau 2 konsumen
tidak terlayani dalam 6 menit.
Convert 6 menit menjadi 0,1 jam sehingga t = 0,1. sehingga
t = 16 (0,1) = 1,6 konsumen.
P(1 atau lebih konsumen menunggu) = P(4) + P(5) + P(6) + ...
Atau P(1 atau lebih konsumen menunggu) = 1 P(x3)
5-43
P(x3) = 0,9212
Sehingga P(4 atau lebih konsumen) = 1 0,9212 = 0,0788
Manager bermaksud memenuhi target agar konsumen yang
menunggu tidak lebih dari 0,05 sebagai acuan untuk

penambahan kasir.
P(4 atau lebih konsumen) = 1 P(x?) 0,05
5-44
Sehingga diperlukan P(x?) 0,95
P(4 atau lebih konsumen) = 1 P(x4) = 1 0,9763 = 0,0237

Karena 0,0237 < 0,05 maka sebaiknya manager menambah
satu kasir.
5-45
The Hypergeometric Distribution

n trials in a sample taken from a finite population of
size N
Sample taken without replacement
Trials are dependent
The probability changes from trial to trial

Concerned with finding the probability of x successes
in the sample where there are X successes in the

population
5-46
Hypergeometric Distribution Formula
(Two possible outcomes per trial: success or

failure)
P( x)
NX .
n x
N
n
X
x
Where
N = population size
X = number of successes in the population
n = sample size
x = number of successes in the sample
n x = number of failures in the sample
5-47
Hypergeometric Distribution Example

Example: 3 Light bulbs were selected from 10. Of the 10
there were 4 defective. What is the probability that 2 of
the 3 selected are defective?
N = 10
X=4
P(x 2)
NX
n x
N
n
n=3
x=2
X
x
6
1
4
2
C C
(6)(6)
0.3
10
C3
120
5-48
Contoh
Pada produksi Nokia bulan Juli didapatkan 20 produk dicurigai
defect karena kesalahan proses. Manager segera memerintahkan

untuk memisahkan 20 produk tersebut. Namun bagian QC
terlanjur meloloskan 10 produk ke bagian pengepakan. Peluang
defect dari 20 product adalah 2.
Maka peluang produk tanpa defect yang dikirim adalah (x = 0)?
20- 2
2
C10
C
C nNxX C Xx
-0
0
P(x 0)
20
C nN
C10
(43,758)(1 )
P(x 0)
0.2368
184,756
5-49
Hypergeometric dustribution untuk semua defect yang
mungkin :
x
P(x)
0,2368
0,5264
0,2368
Total
1,0000
5-50
Hypergeometric Distribution (k possible

outcomes per trial)
P ( x1 , x2 ,..., xk )
k
X
i 1
k
x
i 1
N
n
X1
x1
X2
x2
N
n
...C
XK
xk
N = Population size
n = Total sample size
Xi = Number of items in the
population with outcome i
xi = Number of items in the sample
with outcome i
5-51
Contoh
Studi terhadapt pasar sepeda motor dengan 4 merek
yang ada pada suatu dealer. Pada dealer tersebut

tersebut terdapat stok sebagai berikut :
5 brand Honda
4 brand Suzuki
6 brand Yamaha
4 brand Kawasaki
Sales manager melakukan penelitian pilihan konsumen
tanpa melihat harga. Sebanyak 6 konsumen dipilih

secara acak dan 3 memilih Suzuki, 2 memilih Kawasaki
dan 1 memilih Yamaha. Tidak satupun memilih Honda.
Propabilitas pemilihan secara acak dengan asumsi
memilih tanpa pengembalian adalah :
5-52
Tentukan ukuran populasi dan sample :
N = 19 dan n = 6
Tentukan event of interest :
P(x1 = 0, x2 = 3, x3 = 1, x4 =2) = .....
Tentukan jumlah tiap kategori tiap populasi dan sample
:
Honda
Suzuki
Yamaha
Kawasaki
Total
X1 = 5
X2= 4
X3 = 6
X4 = 4
N = 19
x1 = 0
X2 = 3
x3 = 1
x4 = 2
n=6
5-53
Hitung probabilitas
5-54
Chapter Summary
Reviewed key discrete distributions
Binomial
Poisson
Hypergeometric
Found probabilities using formulas and tables
Recognized when to apply different distributions

Applied distributions to decision problems
5-55

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Business Statistics:

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

distributions to decision making situations

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Introduction to Probability Distributions

uncertainty about outcomes and events.

Represents a possible numerical value from a random event.

Can vary from trial to trial.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Introduction to Probability Distributions

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Discrete Random Variable

a countable number of values

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Continuous Random Variable

any value on a continuum (can assume an uncountable

the ability to measure accurately.

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Discrete Random Variables

Let x be the number of times 4 comes up

Let x be the number of heads

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Discrete Probability Distribution

Discrete Probability Distribution

xi = Value of Random Variable (Outcome)

xis are collectively exhaustive (nothing left out)

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Discrete Probability Distribution

The number of possible outcomes increase, the distribution

Discrete Random Variable Mean

Discrete Random Variable Mean

E(x) = (0 x 0.25) + (1 x 0.50) + (2 x 0.25)

Discrete Random Variable Standard

E(x) = Expected value of the random variable (x)

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Discrete Random Variable Standard

Example: Toss 2 coins, x = # heads,

compute standard deviation (recall E(x) = 1)

x (0 1) 2 (0.25) (1 1) 2 (0.50) (2 1) 2 (0.25) 0.50 .707

Possible number of heads = 0, 1, or 2

pelayaran menjadi tidak tentu. Misalkan x adalah hari

0,15 0,15 0,05

Berdasarkan distribusi probabilitas, tentukan expected dari

hari per minggu yang memungkinkan untuk pelayaran?

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The Binomial Distribution

trial in a process that meets the following condition

Binomial Distribution Examples

yes I will buy or no I will not

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Counting Rule for Combinations

objects are selected from a group of n objects.

i.e. ABC = CBA only one

menentukan kualitas good dan defect.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Binomial Distribution Formula

P(x) = probability of x successes in n trials, with probability of

Dengan menggunakan persoalan pada pemeriksaan sepatu

diketahui n = 4, p = 0,1 dan x = 2 defects

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Perhitungan dengan menggunakan rumus seringkali

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Variance and Standard Deviation