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1. Nomenclature
General terms
Az
APIOBPCS
CSL
C!
D
EPOS
f t
F z
IOBPCS
Pz
Qz
T
VMI
VMI-APIOBPCS
!
xt
180
X z
Z
VMI-APIOBPCS terms
AINV
AVCON
COMRATE
CONS
DES
DINV
dSS
DWIP
EINV
EWIP
FINV
G
GIT
O
ORATE
R
T
Ta
T p
Ti
TINV
Tp
Tq
Tw
VCON
WIP
2.
Introduction
This paper is concerned with the analysis of a Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI)
supply chain. We focus on a one supplier, one customer relationship where the
demand levels are deemed to change signicantly over time, paying particular attention to the manufacturers production scheduling activities. A VMI system is a
production and inventory control strategy where stock positions are known throughout the supply chain for the purposes of setting production and distribution targets.
The z-transform is used to investigate the performance of the VMI system when
coupled with the APIOBPCS (Automatic Pipeline, Inventory and Order Based
Production Control System) production scheduling system (John et al. 1994). This
paper may be regarded as generalizing the approach of Popplewell and Bonney
(1987) and extending it to a two-echelon VMI supply chain. An important distinction here is the identication (and hence avoidance) of instability in the supply chain.
The VMI scenario is rst described, followed by a description of previous work in
181
the eld. A formal description of the VMI system is then presented using causal loop
diagrams, block diagrams and z-transform transfer functions. Important managerial
insights are gained by inspecting the transfer functions. Furthermore, the stability
boundary is established via a novel technique based on the Tustin transformatio n
(Houpis and Lamont 1985). This boundary is determined as a relationship between
the two important system parameters of pipeline gain and inventory gain. The results
are conrmed via the simulation of sample stable; critically stable; and unstable
supply chains. Hence, this paper not only conrms the existence of the instability
problem but also provides guidance on parameter selection to guarantee a stable
response.
3.
182
Figure 1.
Schematic of VMI.
4.
183
. the block diagram format helps identify important system structures (Nise
1995),
. standard techniques enables certain important performance metrics such as
settling time, peak overshoots and rise times to be calculated without recourse
to simulation (Nise 1995),
Simon (1952)
Tustin (1953)
Vassian (1954)
Adelson (1966)
Deziel and Eilon (1967)
Bessier and Zehna (1968)
Burns and Sivazlian (1978)
Towill (1982)
Popplewell and Bonney
(1987)
John et al. (1994)
Grubstrom (1998)
Dejonckheere et al. (2001)
Disney (2001)
Yes
Yes
Yes
Reference
184
Yes
Yes
Yes
#
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Analysis techniques
Yes
Yes
Table 1.
Previous work applying transfer function techniques in the eld of production and
inventory control (updated from Edghill and Towill 1989).
is readily avoided. Bessler and Zehna (1968) then extended Vassians model by using
exponential smoothing as a specic forecasting technique. Burns and Sivazlian
(1978) established a four-echelon supply chain ow diagram and z-transform
model based on the Forrester (1961) model. Towill (1982) used block diagrams,
Laplace transforms and coe cient plane models to study an inventory- and orderbased production control system and thereby access hardware system analogues.
Popplewell and Bonney (1987) studied an MRP system using z-transforms.
Bonney et al. (1994) used z-transfor m models of an ROC system and an MRP
system to investigate the e ect of errors and delays in stock recording procedures
on the dynamic system performance.
John et al. (1994) incorporated a pipeline (WIP) controller into an inventory- and
order-based production control system (to create the APIOBPCS model) that was
studied using Laplace transform s and block diagrams. Much research has emanated
from the department of Production Economics in Linkoping. Grubbstrom (1998)
uses Laplace transforms, z-transforms and Net Present Value (NPV) techniques on
MRP systems. He also provides a comparison of the continuous domain and discrete
domain fundamental equations of MRP. Grubbstrom (1967) introduced Laplace
transforms of NPV. The NPV can be directly computed via the transfer function
185
of a cash ow, via a shortcut identied in the Laplace domain, and was extended to
the discrete domain by Grubbstrom (1991). The shortcut relies on the fact that the
NPV represented in exponential form has exactly the same structure as the Laplace
transform . Amazingly, the NPV of a cash ow is calculated from the cash ows
transfer function by simply replacing the complex Laplace variable s with the continuous interest rate r or, in discrete time, replacing z with 1+the discrete interest
rate, r. In work of direct relevance to this paper Wikner (1994a) has exploited the
NPV transform on an IOBPCS (Towill 1982) model in continuous time. Yinzhong
and Grubbstrom (1994) consider the application of the z-transform to net present
value problems. In later research at Linkoping, Grubbstrom and Wang (2000) have
investigated di erent types of capacity constraints using InputOutput Analysis and
the Laplace transform and Tang (2000) has been investigating the use of Laplace and
z-transforms in production and inventory control and using z-transforms of stochastic demands and lead-times within MRP systems. Grubbstrom and Tang (2000)
highlight how the NPV transform can be used as an evaluation function for the
nancial implementations of rescheduling.
Finally, Dejonckheere et al. (2001) have been using z-transforms to investigate
the Bullwhip performance of common forecasting mechanisms such as moving
averages, exponential smoothing and demand signalling within Order-Up-To
models. Dejonckheere et al. (2000) used z-transform s and Fourier transforms to
design particular ordering decisions to suit particular demand patterns via the
Fourier plot and an optimization procedure to `match the frequency response to
the Fourier plot. This may be regarded as supply chain design via the `explicit lter
approach following the analytical results by Towill and del Vecchio (1994) and the
conceptual discussion by Towill et al. (2001). Table 1 briey summarizes the historical development.
5.
186
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
187
then added to the consumer demand. This reects the distributors e ect on the
demand signal in the VMI scenario.
Block diagram and z-transform description of VMI-APIOBPCS
It is useful at this stage to describe the individual building blocks of the VMIAPIOBPCS model. Later, we will describe how these blocks are assembled
together.
A full description of the di erence equations required is described in Appendix
A. Here, in order to facilitate understanding we will only present the highlights.
6.
Figure 4.
188
AVCONt AVCONt1
1
VCONt AVCONt1 :
1 Ta
a
:
1 z1 1
1
VCONt CONSt VCONt1
G CONSt VCONt1
1 Tq
1
VCONt2
G CONSt1 VCONt2
3
1 Tq
The z-transfor m of the distributors policy is shown in equation (4), where
1=1 Tq completes the relationship.
Qz 1
G
G
:
1 z1 1 1 z2 1
189
Again, the two rates (ORATE and COMRATE) are translated into the level WIP by
the Heaviside Step Function or the integration term, 1=1 z1 ). The pipeline information is incorporated into the production order rate by adding a fraction (1=Tw) of
the di erence between desired WIP (DWIP) and actual WIP.
6.6. The block diagram of VMI-APIOBPCS
The block diagram of the VMI-APIOBPCS is shown in gure 4. It describes, in a
structured pictorial form, how the individual policies described earlier t together to
form the production control system. Manipulating the block diagram, yields `transfer functions that describe the relationship between the input (i.e. consumption
(CONS)), and output (i.e. ORATE, COMRATE or AINV) of a system. These zdomain transfer functions describe completely how the sampled data system behaves
in the time domain.
Of particular interest in the block diagram is the Target systems INVentory
(TINV) and VCON signals. The TINV is a constant that species the desired
supply chain stock position (i.e. the sum of the Distributors stock, the Factorys
stock and the goods in transit). It should be set by the manufacturer and is a function
of the demand pattern, the distribution lead-time between the two supply chain
echelons (via G), the production and transportation delay, and the desired availability at the manufacturer and the distributor. The Virtual CONsumption (VCON)
signal is equal to the actual sales plus net changes in stock at the distributor. If
deliveries were made to the distributor every time period then the VCON would also
be equal to the dispatches between the two echelons. However, the factory does not
have to dispatch goods every time period as the option exists to use less frequent
190
7.
;
Ta1 z zTq1 z zTw Ti1
CONS
1 Tw1 zzTp
COMRATE
CONS
ANV
CONS
In order to determine the time domain response of the system to a unit impulse the
inverse z-transform of the transfer function is taken. This can be achieved by four
main methods:
. taking partial fractions and looking up in z-transform tables to nd a match,
. long division,
. the Cauchy Product,
. taking the following integral counter-clockwise, where Xz is the system transfer function multiplied by the z-transform of the desired input leading to the
expression;
xr
1
2j
Xzzt1 dz:
c
10
Specic inverse z-transform were found by the authors by using the computer program Mathematica 1 (Wolfram Research, Champaign, IL) to avoid errors and
lengthy, tedious algebraic manipulation. There also exists a number of other computer based inverse z-transform procedures, for example see Popplewell and Bonney
(1987).
8.
191
Figure 5.
192
in order to account for inventory errors that result from a nite production leadtime.
Investigation of the system zero and poles: special case when Ti Tw
A useful property of the z-transform is the stability test. It is well known that a
system is stable if all the roots of its characteristic equation lie within the unit circle
in the z-plane (Jury 1958). Figure 6 shows the poles (roots of the denominator of the
ORATE transfer function) and the zeros (roots of the numerator of the ORATE
transfer function) for the VMI system when Ta 8, Ti Tp T p Tq 4,
Tw 12, G 1. Notice that we have complex roots, which, in this particular case,
belong to a stable system, as they are all inside the unit circle. This need not be the
case however, as particular combinations of system parameters can produce unstable
systems. Thus, it is useful to check the stability of system designs via the zero-pole
plot.
Interestingly, if Tw is constrained always to equal Ti, (i.e. the DezielEilon
arbitrary setting) the ORATE transfer function reduces in complexity to that
shown in equation (11).
10.
:
CONS
Ta z Taz1 Ti TizTq z Tqz
11
Solving equation (11) for its poles and zeros yields table 2. Inspection of table 2
shows that the roots always lie on the real axis on the z-plane, as there are no
imaginary parts to the roots. Further inspection also shows that the real roots are
always positive and less than unity. Thus, we can be permitted to declare that if
Tw Ti then we will always have a stable system no matter what values of Ta, Tq,
G, T p we choose. This is an important result because it means that, under the con-
Figure 6.
Zeros
Ta
1 Ta
1 Ti
Ti
Tq
1 Tq
193
Ta T p Ti
1 Ta Tp Ti
G Tq
1 G Tq
Figure 7.
dition Ti Tw, the VMI system will always be robust to end-user intervention. A
similar result can also be found for APIOBPCS. Sample time domain responses
when Ti Tw to a step input are shown in gure 7.
11. E ect of the distribution pattern of the production delay
The general form of a production lag (as opposed to a pure time delay) is shown
in equation (12), (Wikner 1994b). Here, n refers to the order of the production lag
and Tp refers to the length of the delay, that is, its pure time delay equivalent
Pz
nz
Tp1 z nz
12
Equation (13) shows the ORATE transfer function derived from the block diagram
if the production delay operator, zTp in gure 4 is replaced with the Pz dened by
equation (12) for the case when Tw equals Ti. (Note that the unit delay, z1 , is still
required to ensure the correct order of events.)
194
0
Pure time delay
First order delay
Third order delay
Table 3.
:
CONS
Ta z Taz1 Ti TizTq z Tqz
13
Comparison of equations (11) and (13) shows that, in the case when Tw Ti, the
VMI-APIOBPCS model is robust to changes in the distribution of the production
lead-time as the dynamic response is independent of the structure of the production
lead-time because the two equations are identical. This is an important insight,
because it means that if the actual distribution of the production lead-time is not
known, then setting Tw Ti will make the scheduling procedure robust to discrepancies between the actual distribution of lead-time and that used in the scheduling
system. Obviously, it is also robust to the production lead-time distribution changing
over time. Again, it can be shown that this insight also applies to the basic
APIOBPCS model. Table 3 veries this result as inspection shows that the ordinates
are identical over time for the case Ti Tw 4 for a sample unit step response.
Wikner (1994b) discusses how lags of di erent orders may be interpreted as stochastic delays with various distributions when modelling the expected dynamic behaviour of a system. He argues that a rst-order lag may be considered as modelling an
exponential distribution, and higher orders representing the Erlangk distribution,
where the order of the lag, n, corresponds to the order, k, of the general Erlang
distribution. A lag of order 30 approximates a normal distribution. A lag of innite
order refers to a pure time delay from the denition of the exponential. The logical
extension of this discussion is that setting Ti Tw will produce a system that is
robust to stochastic delays and the distribution of those delays.
12.
195
First, we eliminate all design parameters that do not a ect stability. It can be
easily shown that the stability of VMI-APIOBPCS does not depend on Ta, Tq or G
since they appear outside the feedback loops. This result is readily established via
conventional block diagram manipulation (Towill 1970). Note that having selected
stable design parameters, Ta, Tq and G signicantly a ect the VMI supply chain
response to any particular demand pattern. For subsequent optimization of performance a procedure based on production adaptation and inventory costs is available
(Disney 2001). Now given that these parameters (Ta, Tq and G) can be set arbitrarily
to inspect stability further, we can choose values that reduce the complexity of the
characteristic equation (G 0 and Ta 0 are suitable). In order to avoid solving a
transcendental function it is also necessary to specify a value for Tp, therefore Tp
was set to equal three. T p was also set to Tp in order to eliminate inventory o sets
over time as proven by John et al. (1994). The ORATE transfer function then
becomes that shown in equation (14),
ORATE
z3 Ti3 Tw1 z Twz
:
CONS
Tw Ti1 z1 z z2 Twz3
14
In order to determine the stability in the z domain it is necessary to inspect each root
to determine if it is outside the unit circle. The problem is that the algebraic solutions
of these high order polynomials involve a very complex mathematical expression
that typically contains lots of trigonometric functions that need inspection. In such
cases, the necessary and su cient conditions to show if the roots lie outside the unit
circle are not easy to determine. Therefore, the Tustin Transformation is taken to
map the z-plane problem into the !-plane. The Tustin transform is shown in equation (15),
z
!1
:
! 1
15
This changes the problem from determining when the roots lie inside the unit circle
to whether they lie on the left-hand side of the !-plane (Houpis and Lamont 1985).
The !-plane transfer function now becomes equation (16) and the resultant characteristic equation (the denominator of the transfer function) is shown in equation
(17).
ORATE
1 !3 Tw Tw 2Ti3 Tw!
;
CONS
2Ti1 !3 !2
Tw1 !2Ti1 !3 2 !2 2 !!
16
17
This equation is still not easy to investigate algebraically, but the Routh-Hurwitz
stability criterion can now be utilized which does enable a solution.
196
table 5. This is the !-transformed VMI characteristic equation written into the
RouthHurwitz Array.
For stability, it is known that a4 , a3 , 1 , 1 and 1 must all be positive. Inspection
of a4 shows that it is always positive, as it is for a3 , 1 and 1 . The case of 1 is more
interesting, as this is the component of the array that can, under certain circumstances, become negative. Therefore, in order to determine stability, the relevant
roots of 1 are found for Tw. Plotting this function on the parameter plane yields
gure 8, which shows the boundary of stability for di erent Tw and Ti for VMIAPIOBPCS when Tp T p 3. Figure 8 also highlights six possible designs that are
to be used as test cases of the stability criteria via sample time domain responses to a
unit step input. This result is also true for APIOBPCS. Solving 1 for Ti yields a very
lengthy function but the limiting case of Tw ! 1 (i.e. the stability of IOBPCS)
shows that Ti > 2:24698 also always produces a stable system.
Figure 8 shows the Ti Tw parameter plane with equation (20) superimposed.
Also shown for reference is the Tw Ti line (the DezielEilon line), which obviously
guarantees a stable APIOBPCS design. The extension to VMI-APIOBPCS is, however, unique to this paper. We now need to test that our approach utilizing the
Tustin transformatio n is a good predictor. Hence, for sample values of Tw the
exact step responses of the VMI-APIOBPCS supply chain have been simulated
(see gure 9) for stable; critically stable; and unstable designs. These plots conrm
the theory by clearly identifying the stable region for VMI-APIOBPCS operation. A
s4
s3
a4
a3
s2
a3 a2 a4 a1
a3
s1
1 a1 a3 2
1
s0
1 2 1 0
1
Table 4.
a2
a1
2
a0
0
a3 a0 a4 0
a3
20
s4
2Ti Tw 2TiTw
Tw
s3
s2
s1
s0
Tw
Table 5.
Tw
Figure 8.
Figure 9.
197
198
20
21
or
14.
Conclusions
A VMI-APIOBPCS supply chain has been described using causal loop diagrams,
block diagrams, di erence equations and z-transforms. These have proved to be very
powerful methods for investigating a Vendor Managed Inventory system. The Final
Value Theorem has demonstrated the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of
the production lead-time, Tp. The time domain behaviour of the system has been
illustrated. It has been shown that if Ti Tw a stable system that is robust to
changes in the distribution of the production delay is always produced. A procedure
for determining the general stability conditions for VMI-APIOBPCS and
APIOBPCS has also been evaluated by example for the case when T p Tp 3.
The stability conditions have been presented. The adequacy of the method has been
demonstrated by simulating predicted stable; critically stable and unstable VMIAPIOBPCS designs. Our results conrm that the predicted instability boundary is
indeed correct. Consequently, the method may be used with condence in dening
the region in the Tw Ti parameter plane corresponding to a reasonable stability
margin. Finally, we emphasise the importance of proper timing and matching of the
two feedback loops so as to ensure stable operations. It is thereby shown that the
DezielEilon APIOBPCS setting of Ti Tw always leads to a conservative design.
Description
199
Di erence equations
1
VCONt AVCONt1 ;
1 Ta
Eqn
no.
Consumption forecast
AVCONt AVCONt1
DWIPt AVCONt
Actual WIP
(A3)
Inventory error
(A4)
Order rate
ORATEt AVCONt1
(A5)
Completion rate
COMRATEt ORATEtTp ,
(A6)
1
VCONt CONSt VCONt1
G CONSt
1 Tq
1
VCONt1 VCONt2
G CONSt1
1 Tq
VCONt2
(A7)
Virtual consumption
CONSt
0 if t 0
1 if t > 0
T p;
,
Ti
Tw
(A1)
(A2)
(A8)
(A9)
(A10)
200
Appendix B:
Description
Di erence equations
1
G
1 Tq
CONSt Rt1
Eqn
no.
(B1)
Ot Rt ETQt ,
(B2)
(B3)
PitT 1
(B4)
Transport quantity
TQ t CONSt or ETQ t ;
(B6)
(B7)
(B8)
Virtual consumption
(B9)
dSSt Rt Rt1 ;
(B10)
Dispatches
GITt
i1
(B5)
Forecasted
consumption for the
factory
AVCONt AVCONt1
1
VCONt AVCONt1 ; (B11)
1 Ta
Desired WIP
DWIPt AVCONt
T p,
(B12)
Actual WIP
(B13)
Error in WIP
(B14)
Order rate
ORATEt AVCONt1
Completion rate
COMRATEt ORATEtTp ,
(B16)
Error in system
inventory levels
(B.17)
CONSt
TINVt 0:
0
1
if t 0
if t
EINVt1 EWIP t1
;
Ti
Tw
(B15)
(B18)
(B19)
201
!
b 0 b 1 z b 2 z2
b q zq
F z K
C1
a0 a1 z a2 z2
a m zm
Coe cient
b0
b1
b2
b3
b4
b5
b6
b7
a0
a1
a2
a3
a4
a5
a6
a7
ORATE value
0
0
0
0
0
G T p Ti T pTiTq GTa TiTw Ta TiTqTw
T pTi 2GT p Ti 2T pTiTq Ta TiTw GTa TiTw
G1 Ta TiTw 1 Ta TiTqTw Ta TiTqTw
T pTi GT pTi T pTiTq 1 Ta TiTw G1 Ta TiTw
1 Ta TiTqTw
TaTiTq TaTqTw
TaTi TiTq 2TaTiTq TaTw TqTw 2TaTqTw
Ti TaTi TiTq TaTiTq Tw TaTw TqTw TaTqTw
0
TaTiTq TaTiTqTw
TaTi TiTq 2TaTiTq TaTiTw TiTqTw 3TaTiTqTw
Ti TaTi TiTq TaTiTq TiTw 2TaTiTw 2TiTqTw 3TaTiTqTw
TiTw TaTiTw TiTqTw TaTiTqTw
Coe cient
b0
b1
b2
b3
b4
b5
b6
b7
a0
a1
a2
a3
a4
a5
a6
a7
AINV value
0
GTaTi GT pTi TaTiTq T pTiTq GTiTw TiTqTw
GTi TaTi GTaTi T pTi GT pTi TiTq+ TaTiTq T pTiTq
TiTw GTiTw TiTqTw
Ti
Ti
Ti GTaTi TaTiTq GTaTiTw TaTiTqTw
Ti GTi TaTi GTaTi TiTq TaTiTq GTiTw+TaTiTw
2GTaTiTw TiTqTw 2TaTiTqTw
TiTw GTiTw TaTiTw GTaTiTw TiTqTw TaTiTqTw
TaTiTq TaTqTw
TaTi TiTq 2TaTiTq TaTw TqTw 2TaTqTw
Ti TaTi TiTq TaTiTq Tw TaTw TqTw TaTqTw
0
TaTiTq TaTiTqTw
TaTi TiTq 2TaTiTq TaTiTw TiTqTw 3TaTiTqTw
Ti TaTi TiTq TaTiTq TiTw 2TaTiTw 2TiTqTw 3TaTiTqTw
TiTw TaTiTw TiTqTw TaTiTqTw
202
Coe cient
b0
b1
b2
b3
b4
b5
b6
b7
a0
a1
a2
a3
a4
a5
a6
a7
COMRATE value
GT pTi T pTiTq GTa TiTw Ta TiTqTw
T pTi 2GT pTi 2T pTiTq Ta TiTw GTa+TiTw
G1 Ta TiTw 1 Ta TiTqTw Ta TiTqTw
T pTi GT pTi T pTiTq 1 Ta TiTw+ G1 Ta TiTw
1 Ta TiTqTw
0
0
0
0
0
TaTiTq TaTqTw
TaTi TiTq 2TaTiTq TaTw TqTw 2TaTqTw
Ti TaTi TiTq TaTiTq Tw TaTw TqTw TaTqTw
0
TaTiTq TaTiTqTw
TaTi TiTq 2TaTiTq TaTiTw TiTqTw 3TaTiTqTw
Ti TaTi TiTq TaTiTq TiTw 2TaTiTw 2TiTqTw 3TaTiTqTw
TiTw TaTiTw TiTqTw TaTiTqTw
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